Yeah, genius. We're "only" paying 5% of the 25% (if you bothered to actually read the actual article, not that Breitbart word turd stew "analysis".) And maybe you missed that last sentence of the actual summary of the study...
“As the trade conflict escalates, however, the U.S. administration may not be able to restrict its selection to products with high import elasticities,” they wrote. “And U.S. welfare might decrease as more of the tariff incidence falls on U.S. consumers.”
In other words, right now, for the most part, tariffs have hit industries who can choose to shop outside of China, which means US companies moving to non-Chinese suppliers avoid some of the tariffs... but, as more tariffs kick in Jan, there are less and less of those industries. China just makes too much stuff too cheaply (and well). So more and more companies will be forced to simply eat or pass on the tariffs.
Another thing the article only addressed in passing: who will be able to force their citizens to endure the costs of the trade war longer, Trump in the free market US with elections looming, or Xi, President for life with control over party and government. I'll let you guess who will put up the costs of the trade war longer... or you could just watch the dow, and US growth forecasts between now and January when the next big wave takes affect.
I think Trump will have to find a way out of the tariff war - companies, soybean farmers and manufacturers are cranky already and as the economy inches close to low to flat growth, that 5% will become more important to margins.
