Trump tariffs lead to bleak 2019 farm forecasts
The Agriculture Department’s Economic Research Service has estimated that 2018 net farm income will be $9.8 billion, or 13 percent, lower than the year before. Adjusting for inflation, farm income is barely above the lowest level since 2002. If current trends continue, some agriculture economists predict that farm income will fall again in 2019.
Trade aid vs. suppressed demand
Although many farmers aren’t vocally blaming Trump for their woes, the trade war has both direct and indirect effects on agriculture. Steel and aluminum duties levied on imports from China as well as other trading partners like Canada have bumped up the cost of farm equipment, while tariffs on Chinese chemicals have raised prices on pesticides and herbicides.
USDA’s recent trade aid package provides some respite, but it will not address the broader challenges. Several sectors of the farm economy also complain that the $12 billion trade assistance program will give meager relief from retaliatory tariffs.
The department is set to announce plans for a second round of trade aid around early December, but the Agriculture secretary has repeatedly stressed the cash payments are intended to just be a temporary, one-year stopgap.
Gordon called the program a “Band-Aid on an arterial bleed.”
The biggest factor taking aim at farm incomes has to do with supply and demand economics. Commodity prices have plummeted since spring, when China was gearing up to slap 25 percent duties on U.S. agricultural goods like soybeans in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on Chinese high-tech products.
Ken Morrison, an agriculture commodities market expert, said China is unlikely to back down over Trump’s trade demands on issues like intellectual property and technology transfers. Like other trade experts and market watchers, Morrison thinks retaliatory tariffs are here to stay.
“I spent four years in China, long enough to know not to underestimate their willingness to endure economic pain, especially when their sovereign goals are threatened,” he said.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/23/trump-tariffs-farmers-agriculture-866450
Put an Idiot in the White House - what could go wrong?
The Agriculture Department’s Economic Research Service has estimated that 2018 net farm income will be $9.8 billion, or 13 percent, lower than the year before. Adjusting for inflation, farm income is barely above the lowest level since 2002. If current trends continue, some agriculture economists predict that farm income will fall again in 2019.
Trade aid vs. suppressed demand
Although many farmers aren’t vocally blaming Trump for their woes, the trade war has both direct and indirect effects on agriculture. Steel and aluminum duties levied on imports from China as well as other trading partners like Canada have bumped up the cost of farm equipment, while tariffs on Chinese chemicals have raised prices on pesticides and herbicides.
USDA’s recent trade aid package provides some respite, but it will not address the broader challenges. Several sectors of the farm economy also complain that the $12 billion trade assistance program will give meager relief from retaliatory tariffs.
The department is set to announce plans for a second round of trade aid around early December, but the Agriculture secretary has repeatedly stressed the cash payments are intended to just be a temporary, one-year stopgap.
Gordon called the program a “Band-Aid on an arterial bleed.”
The biggest factor taking aim at farm incomes has to do with supply and demand economics. Commodity prices have plummeted since spring, when China was gearing up to slap 25 percent duties on U.S. agricultural goods like soybeans in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on Chinese high-tech products.
Ken Morrison, an agriculture commodities market expert, said China is unlikely to back down over Trump’s trade demands on issues like intellectual property and technology transfers. Like other trade experts and market watchers, Morrison thinks retaliatory tariffs are here to stay.
“I spent four years in China, long enough to know not to underestimate their willingness to endure economic pain, especially when their sovereign goals are threatened,” he said.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/23/trump-tariffs-farmers-agriculture-866450
Put an Idiot in the White House - what could go wrong?