You may want to deep dive into Freddie and Fannie, fwiw.
BTW, here is the story on Seattle. Tech companies drove surge in building to avoid doing a Silicon Valley. Seattle is booming.
Falling rents can't be "refusal" to pay obscene monthly rents unless there are alternatives - (for instance Manhattan rent increases fell before Brooklyn's did recently because so many folks had gone to Brooklyn that new arrivals weren't even considering Manhattan.) Construction is a relatively long-window activity. The crash in construction of 2008-10 hit a few years later and only in the last few years has the construction from the recovery come on line. SFH still lag, and some NIMB cities (like SF, and to a lesser extent LA) lag. But even LA is about to see some softening at the top as the downtown luxury apt boom brings too many $$$ units on-line. (Chinese capital outflow limits also affecting some markets. Chinese nationals are not able to buy and hold rental properties as easily as a way to park offshore money.)
It's certainly possible the "sky doesn't fall" any time soon. No one really knows how this particular cocktail of "trickle down stimulus" (and stock buybacks) mixed with increased consumption tax (tariffs) mixed with near-full employment mixed with extra-strong dollar and rising interest rates will play out... But I would start looking carefully at things over the next 6 months if I were someone with significant investments they might need to draw on in the 2-5 years.
Some BG on the Seattle construction boom. I happen to think the falling rents is a good thing for Seattle. Kid worked there this summer and had a great apt. for very reasonable $$, but if it is being repeated across the US (46% of cities had falling y/y rents as of August) it's something to be aware of... Especially given lack of SFH coming on line.
https://www.constructiondive.com/news/is-seattles-building-boom-over/518536/
