Polling indicates the opposite. NY Times just came out with a story.
The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too, according to a new analysis of voter registration data by The New York Times. The analysis used voter registration data compiled by L2, a nonpartisan data firm.
Few measurements reflect the luster of a political party’s brand more clearly than the choice by voters to identify with it — whether they register on a clipboard in a supermarket parking lot, at the Department of Motor Vehicles or in the comfort of their own home.
And fewer and fewer Americans are choosing to be Democrats.
In fact, for the first time since 2018, more new voters nationwide chose to be Republicans than Democrats last year.
All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections in the 30 states, along with Washington, D.C., that allow people to register with a political party. (In the remaining 20 states, voters do not register with a political party.) Republicans gained 2.4 million.
Nominally, Democrats still have an overall registration advantage, but that's mainly a mirage, as Goldmacher points out. Blue states like California have partisan registrations, while Texas and a handful of other red states do not. Their advantage in partisan-registration states has been cut in half in the last four years, and even in those states, the trends away from the Democrats are accelerating.
Just how bad has it gotten? Goldmacher laid out the data in
a Twitter thread:
- PA: Dems +517K in 2020, +53K in 2024
- NC: Dems +400K in 2020, +17K in 2024
- Voters under 45: Dems 68% in 2018, 48% in 2024
- Dems share of indies in elections: 63% in 2018, 48% in 2024
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