Sturgis had 450 k people and 88 covid cases. not so super spreader. small gathering of 12 has 11 test positive there is no rhyme or reason.
You are comparing cars to horse drawn carriages. The rally in Sturgis brings in about $780M for the town. Surf will not. The rally is held every year in Sturgis, Surf has never been held in AZ.
What you fail to see is that this decision is likely not going to come down to the spread of the virus, but the potential denial of real dollars to cities across the Phoenix metro in the weeks and month after Surf is done. Scottsdale (and other cities) don't really cares about 3 soccer games for your kids (or my kids). They will tell you to go pound sand, chant the I've been put in chains slogan somewhere else - they have people in Lear jets who want to come and spend real money.
We had over 12K new cases today and ICU beds held steady at 10% remaining (which is normal for this time of the year). Fatality rate on infections keep falling but that's not how it gets reported. The local media hyper ventilates on cases. Health care leaders are worried about bed space for revenue generating patients. If this inches higher into the low 90s for ICU beds, I see something being done county wide to help stabilize bed space. It has to be done sooner rather than later in order to give the metro area the breathing space it needs to make money in JAN and FEB. The lowest hanging fruit is surf. They will cancel surf before they stop elective surgeries.
We also don't have an appetite for real lockdowns. Notice that the City of Phoenix closed fields. They didn't place additional restrictions on businesses, etc. The very ideals that the CA population is screaming for may very well piss you off the most. In order to not enact strict lockdown measures, they will go after the easy stuff - deny a small potatoes outside entity the ability to have an event. What heroes they will be, taking action.
You can still come and eat and stay, you just can't play organized soccer during a weekend that we normally don't play organized soccer. Which is fine, the golf courses are in great shape, play a round or two.