Seven stages of Covid.. keep playing and find out how far you will go!

watfly said:
Let's not pretend that its really about the protection of children, when the reality is that its for the protection of adults. That's why we hear the argument that "it doesn't matter that the virus poses little risk to children, what about community spread?" Community spread is a euphemism for "that snot nosed kid better not give me Covid".
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Afraid of direct contagion from the snot nosed kid? Not really. I am healthy and vaccinated. The likely damage to me is quite small.

However, one of my kid’s friends has a little sister with a weak immune system. My fear is that covid makes it to her, because she can’t fight it off.

So, nothing to do with the snot nosed kid. Hope he scores a goal this weekend.

Community spread is a way to say, “more covid in the community means more exposure for the vulnerable in our community”.
 
dad4 said:
Afraid of direct contagion from the snot nosed kid? Not really. I am healthy and vaccinated. The likely damage to me is quite small.

However, one of my kid’s friends has a little sister with a weak immune system. My fear is that covid makes it to her, because she can’t fight it off.

So, nothing to do with the snot nosed kid. Hope he scores a goal this weekend.

Community spread is a way to say, “more covid in the community means more exposure for the vulnerable in our community”.
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Your own personal behavior with the N95s belies that this has anything to do with the immunocompromised sister of your kids friends...it implies it really is about you.
 
Grace T. said:
I posted in another thread but I think you'll like this essay. It covers a lot of the things you have been saying about children.

ajkay.substack.com

Childhood, Interrupted

Children’s value — which was once predicated on their role as the literal future of humanity— has been perverted, now centering on their utility as shields for the elderly.
ajkay.substack.com ajkay.substack.com
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I had read that. While I agree with the points its a little strong for my tastes.
 
Grace T. said:
Your own personal behavior with the N95s belies that this has anything to do with the immunocompromised sister of your kids friends...it implies it really is about you.
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It is a systems thinking question, not a personal risk question.

You and DH will never really get your brains around it. Your head keeps wanting to ask “given a fixed world, what is the risk to me?”. That isn‘t the question I am asking at all.

I am asking “given what we know about the virus, how do we reduce the risk to all of us?”
 
dad4 said:
It is a systems thinking question, not a personal risk question.

You and DH will never really get your brains around it. Your head keeps wanting to ask “given a fixed world, what is the risk to me?”. That isn‘t the question I am asking at all.

I am asking “given what we know about the virus, how do we reduce the risk to all of us?”
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From a systems point of view: a. there aren't enough N95s to go around for everyone (you and I agree govt should have done more in this area). Every N95 you use is an N95 which is not available to a medical worker or vulnerable person like my folks. Every N95 that you buy drives up the price incrementally from people that want them and have an argument that they really need them.
b. you've said surgicals works....why don't you use them then? You're using an N95 in the supermarket is going to do very much to help the others around you....aren't you in education too....aren't you getting tested?...the odds of you asymptomatically passing something onto others given you are also vaccinated are very small.
c. The n95 is about you....it's not about others. You either believe the science you've been pushing or you don't. Either the masks work or they don't.
 
dad4 said:
It is a systems thinking question, not a personal risk question.

You and DH will never really get your brains around it. Your head keeps wanting to ask “given a fixed world, what is the risk to me?”. That isn‘t the question I am asking at all.

I am asking “given what we know about the virus, how do we reduce the risk to all of us?”
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Can you add to that question….for how long and at what expense?
 
dad4 said:
I see no reason to believe the two are mutually exclusive. I am vaccinated, but I figure my own odds of catching a mild case of delta are nowhere near zero. No need to rush it, but it’s reasonably likely I’ll end up with both.

Quite a few vaccinated people are going to end up with boh natural and vaccinated immunity- either because they got vaccinated after infection, or because they had exposure after vaccination.
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This times 1000. I am vaccinated but know I will eventually get it. I will have mild symptoms as a result. Life will go on. On the other hand a coworker of mine just told me yesterday her step dad just passed away from covid complications. He was an anti-vaxer, the maga varietal (not the q-hippy type). Surely he would've survived covid had he taken the vaccine. Sure, just one example, but this is happening all over the place with low vaccination rates.

I would actually agree with anti-maskers for kids in school in areas with high vaccination rates. We live in a county that has really high vaccination rates. I don't particularly see the need for the masks in school. At least until there's a mutation that impacts children more than it does today. My kids don't complain about it, so whatever.

The problem though, anti-maskers and anti-vaxers are usually the same people.
 
NorCalDad said:
This times 1000. I am vaccinated but know I will eventually get it. I will have mild symptoms as a result. Life will go on. On the other hand a coworker of mine just told me yesterday her step dad just passed away from covid complications. He was an anti-vaxer, the maga varietal (not the q-hippy type). Surely he would've survived covid had he taken the vaccine. Sure, just one example, but this is happening all over the place with low vaccination rates.

I would actually agree with anti-maskers for kids in school in areas with high vaccination rates. We live in a county that has really high vaccination rates. I don't particularly see the need for the masks in school. At least until there's a mutation that impacts children more than it does today. My kids don't complain about it, so whatever.

The problem though, anti-maskers and anti-vaxers are usually the same people.
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Be careful, you could be labeled an anti-masker with your common sense position on children and masks. ;)

Out of honest curiosity, what makes you so sure your going to get it? I realize that luck plays a roll, is it just that you can't control luck? I took a don't be stupid, but don't hide, approach to Covid, and maybe I just got lucky. At this point I'm vaccinated and other than keeping my distance from people that are sick I don't really take any other precautions. While I probably wouldn't too surprised if I got Covid, I'm not expecting to get it.
 
NorCalDad said:
This times 1000. I am vaccinated but know I will eventually get it. I will have mild symptoms as a result. Life will go on. On the other hand a coworker of mine just told me yesterday her step dad just passed away from covid complications. He was an anti-vaxer, the maga varietal (not the q-hippy type). Surely he would've survived covid had he taken the vaccine. Sure, just one example, but this is happening all over the place with low vaccination rates.

I would actually agree with anti-maskers for kids in school in areas with high vaccination rates. We live in a county that has really high vaccination rates. I don't particularly see the need for the masks in school. At least until there's a mutation that impacts children more than it does today. My kids don't complain about it, so whatever.

The problem though, anti-maskers and anti-vaxers are usually the same people.
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You've simplified a very complex thing, to include the virus. Vaccinated people are dying at an alarming rate, check the data coming out of England and even in our own country. More vaccinated people died of covid in England than unvaccinated from 1FEB - 1 AUG. Makes sense really. It's an imperfect vaccine with high coverage. Generally speaking healthy people, vaccinated or not, survive covid. Some wont , but most do. Data coming out of New England suggests the increase as well.

This ridiculous political discussion surrounding health care is suffocating. You can and should treat infections with everything and the kitchen sink. Some will, some won't. Political discourse is getting in the way of health care. The Surgeon General said something the other day that recieved little attention by the hystric stream media: "It is really important that we convey that success does not equal no cases," Murthy said. "Success looks like very few people in the hospital and very few dying."

But we will continue to delineate tribes, direct unscientific mandates, and generally wreak havoc on the ability of medical professionals to care for their patients.
 
watfly said:
Be careful, you could be labeled an anti-masker with your common sense position on children and masks. ;)

Out of honest curiosity, what makes you so sure your going to get it? I realize that luck plays a roll, is it just that you can't control luck? I took a don't be stupid, but don't hide, approach to Covid, and maybe I just got lucky. At this point I'm vaccinated and other than keeping my distance from people that are sick I don't really take any other precautions. While I probably wouldn't too surprised if I got Covid, I'm not expecting to get it.
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Because even in our highly vaccinated county, kids are getting it. Their symptoms are all flu-like and not a huge deal. I mean I realize I'm ignoring some kids that are immunocompromised that @dad4 rightfully brings up, but in general the impact to kids is pretty low from what I've seen so far. I know several families that have gotten it. My family is pretty safe, so if we get it, it will be through the kids. Not a huge deal, due to our vaccination rates. If I lived somewhere where the vax rates were bad, I'd quickly move. Our hospitals are just moving along with no real shortages of anything. Again, due to vax rates. Maybe natural immunity will achieve the same eventually, but that's some pretty brutal collateral damage.
 
what-happened said:
You've simplified a very complex thing, to include the virus. Vaccinated people are dying at an alarming rate, check the data coming out of England and even in our own country. More vaccinated people died of covid in England than unvaccinated from 1FEB - 1 AUG. Makes sense really. It's an imperfect vaccine with high coverage. Generally speaking healthy people, vaccinated or not, survive covid. Some wont , but most do. Data coming out of New England suggests the increase as well.

This ridiculous political discussion surrounding health care is suffocating. You can and should treat infections with everything and the kitchen sink. Some will, some won't. Political discourse is getting in the way of health care. The Surgeon General said something the other day that recieved little attention by the hystric stream media: "It is really important that we convey that success does not equal no cases," Murthy said. "Success looks like very few people in the hospital and very few dying."

But we will continue to delineate tribes, direct unscientific mandates, and generally wreak havoc on the ability of medical professionals to care for their patients.
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Are you referring to my "maga varietal" comment? I backed that up with "q-hippy" in case you missed it.

Honestly dude, I don't even know what you're arguing. You're all over the place. Maybe take a break from the screen a bit.
 
watfly said:
Be careful, you could be labeled an anti-masker with your common sense position on children and masks. ;)

Out of honest curiosity, what makes you so sure your going to get it? I realize that luck plays a roll, is it just that you can't control luck? I took a don't be stupid, but don't hide, approach to Covid, and maybe I just got lucky. At this point I'm vaccinated and other than keeping my distance from people that are sick I don't really take any other precautions. While I probably wouldn't too surprised if I got Covid, I'm not expecting to get it.
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It's continuing to mutate. If either: a) vaccine/natural immunity drops with time as the Israelis believe (Gottlieb/Fauci believe it may be like chicken pox...one booster and it's enough to keep vaccine immunity high....but they are guessing....there's no data to support that), or b) the mutations continue, the herd immunity number is set way over 100%....it's therefore likely that over time everyone will get it (as they do with the flu). The problem is we don't know if either of the two assumptions are true, but it's looking more likely than not which would make it endemic.
 
Grace T. said:
It's continuing to mutate. If either: a) vaccine/natural immunity drops with time as the Israelis believe (Gottlieb/Fauci believe it may be like chicken pox...one booster and it's enough to keep vaccine immunity high....but they are guessing....there's no data to support that), or b) the mutations continue, the herd immunity number is set way over 100%....it's therefore likely that over time everyone will get it (as they do with the flu). The problem is we don't know if either of the two assumptions are true, but it's looking more likely than not which would make it endemic.
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Well hell, only 1 in 10 have tested positive in San Diego (obviously the actual Covid cases are higher), so we have a long way to go. While I'm one that said that the virus will always find the path of least resistance, I still believe it will burnout before everyone gets it (and not necessarily due to herd immunity). The virus hasn't shown any indication of that yet, (in terms of cases) but I'm hopeful it will. Call me naïve.
 
watfly said:
Well hell, only 1 in 10 have tested positive in San Diego (obviously the actual Covid cases are higher), so we have a long way to go. While I'm one that said that the virus will always find the path of least resistance, I still believe it will burnout before everyone gets it (and not necessarily due to herd immunity). The virus hasn't shown any indication of that yet, (in terms of cases) but I'm hopeful it will. Call me naïve.
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There are two theories of thought on that. Assume the assumptions are correct and herd immunity is over (in which case it will be way over most likely) 100%....1) the virus continues its evolutionary trek down the delta (with the delta displacing most other competitors)....eventually it runs out of things to do to change....eventually it burns out and goes away but this takes place over the course of years, perhaps even a decade, gradually peetering out with each year it being less and less of a problem, or 2) another family of mutations arises (say for example the mu that's caught the press's attention)....this continues pretty much forever like flu.....some years will be better than others....people will catch it multiple times....the vulnerable will periodically die from it.
 
Grace T. said:
There are two theories of thought on that. Assume the assumptions are correct and herd immunity is over (in which case it will be way over most likely) 100%....1) the virus continues its evolutionary trek down the delta (with the delta displacing most other competitors)....eventually it runs out of things to do to change....eventually it burns out and goes away but this takes place over the course of years, perhaps even a decade, gradually peetering out with each year it being less and less of a problem, or 2) another family of mutations arises (say for example the mu that's caught the press's attention)....this continues pretty much forever like flu.....some years will be better than others....people will catch it multiple times....the vulnerable will periodically die from it.
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I don't like either of those scenarios. Is there a scenario where a Covid vaccine is developed that is as effective as the Polio vaccine?
 
watfly said:
I don't like either of those scenarios. Is there a scenario where a Covid vaccine is developed that is as effective as the Polio vaccine?
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No. Polio is much more stable.

Best chance is if Fauci/Gottlieb are right (and the Israelis are wrong) and boosters make it like the chicken pox vaccine and the delta burns out naturally in the non-vaxxed portion of the world (if natural immunity is robust and long lasting against any of delta's children).
 
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