You had me until that last part. Albion and Carlsbad might think that they are going to get to harvest the local talent but I haven't seen it happen yet. One of my best friends has a daughter that plays for Albion on a team that will be GDA. She loves her new kit and her new team but she would play for the top Surf team in the age group if she could right now. Their plan is to try to move her over there when the recruiting ages start for them. They have seen first hand what Surf has done for many players.
GDA is a reality but brand still maters. Surf has the brand and in almost every age group they get first crack at the top players. I'm sure that you understand why. Good luck to you and yours.
If you're taking a current snapshot, then yes probably most top level girls player would still want to gravitate to Surf right now. My point was though, the landscape is changing. Albion and Carlsbad can now compete on a near 1:1 basis in terms of giving top players in the area the opportunity to play at the highest levels and get exposure. I think you're under-estimating how much Surf was able to benefit from having an ECNL monopoly for so long. Yes Surf will still enjoy some residual effects for a couple more years, but you can't assume their brand alone can keep attracting players without making some other adjustments. As I said Surf makes shrewd business decisions and are forward thinking, so I think part of their motivation of returning to Presidio was to avoid ceding too much of the potential talent pool to Albion/Carlsbad now that both have a GDA recruiting magnet.
Besides branding can change. And it's already happened to Surf. About 5-6 years ago when they had only two teams in each age group, I remember when my son wore his Surf jersey to LA Galaxy games, he would get looks and would hear whispers of, "Hey, that kid plays for Surf!" and people would stop us to ask about the club. Also when you looked at a tournament bracket and saw a Surf team, you knew they were almost always a contender or the favorites.
Flash forward 5 years, now when someone sees a Surf jersey, they have to ask is it Surf Murrieta, Surf San Clemente, Surf Anaheim, Inland Empire Surf, PSPL Surf, or San Gabriel Valley Surf just in the local area. Nevermind the the out of area ones of Surf Hawaii, Surf Seattle, Surf New York, San Jose Surf, and Utah Surf. Combine this with the expansion of "C", "D" teams to the San Diego home branch, the rapid expansion meant they went from just two teams in a single age group to potentially
25-30 Surf teams in a single age group. With maybe one actually qualifying as Elite and the rest ranging anywhere between Silver Elite and Bronze Rec. Over the last couple of years, I've seen some truly dreadful teams wear the Surf jerseys that never would have happened before and I've seen affiliates at times play nothing close to what was being taught in San Diego.
As a result, the Surf brand has been diluted and has lost some luster. Surf used to have this mystique where you had to be among the best in the area to play on a Surf team. If you saw a kid wearing a Surf jersey, it was safe to assume they were probably a pretty good soccer player. But due to brand dilution this simply is no longer the case. Btw, the same thing is starting to happen with Surf Cup where it's losing some of its "Best of the Best" luster due to expansion and lowering the bar.
I'm pretty sure Surf is fully aware of the brand dilution and it was a calculated decision to expand in order to increase revenue and expand their operations. I believe they're content as long as they maintain the prestige and performance of their elite teams, which is still a strong recruitment tool for players, coaches, and new affiliates. They're probably okay that their brand has become a bit of a commodity as long as they can keep expanding the Surf empire.
Point is though, it's foolish to assume Surf's brand alone will just keep attracting elite players over the next 4 years and beyond. Their brand has already morphed and Surf doesn't operate in a vacuum. Albion/Carlsbad have been pushing hard to close the gap and Albion in particular seems to be following in Surf's footsteps in commoditizing their brand in order to expand. I do agree though Surf starts the next 2-3 years with home court advantage.