I used the caveat, "as they get more skilled". I honestly sort of agree with you when it comes to "deliberately played", at the end of the day, it is the referee's judgement call. Whether they anticipated it or not is just 1 consideration. If it is enough to be a deliberate play would depend on if it was a "bang-bang" play as you described, or maybe they were 5 yards away when they anticipated the ball and that looks like more of a deliberate play. Its the gray area where you think, "I wouldn't have blamed them if it hit them from 5 yards away, too fast, but since they deliberately anticipated from 5 yards away, it is deliberate."
That being said, the same factors in judging "deliberately handling". I would be inclined to give the handling call even in a "bang-bang" 1 yard away play if they anticipated where the ball was going to go (higher level of course). There were a few controversial instances of this in the World Cup.