We won't know til the hard quarter inflation numbers are out, but the likelihood is this is the "top" of the roller coaster. Jobs and inflation have gone traditionally the opposite of each other (with certain exceptions) and when inflation gets better, the economy by necessity must at least moderately contract. The reason is the excess money supply is what causes inflation, and withdrawing money from the economy contracts it (which in turn affects jobs....which is a lagging indicator).
What the economic experts are trying to achieve is a so-called "soft landing" where inflation calms down and the jobs market isn't necessarily impacted. It's very hard to get that soft landing though because you can notoriously over or undershoot and they don't have full control over what's going on, such as the impact of the legislation.
The other possibility is that rather than this being the top of the roller coaster is actually worse: that they haven't done enough to bring down inflation, which means the fed will have to pump the breaks far more furiously and do more economic damages to tame inflation. The sign to watch for which it is: if there is a correction in the supply issues (both goods and labor) that we've been having...it means the market has attained equilibrium again instead of hurtling towards either direction.
p.s. I wouldn't look to heavily at gasoline prices going forward....we are going to begin to shift to winter blends soon...the food indexes are a leading indicator.
