I like the loaded dice analogy
You questioned why it’s important. Here’s why it is. For me, the math is almost an irrelevancy. I’m not making declarations about modeling systems. I’m saying they are practically worthless and pointing out why the models are broken and why they are incongruous to what’s actually happening in the world. It’s why you and others here from time to time may accuse me of cherry picking sources or data.
the n is important because you are doing something similar (except you think you aren’t). You aren’t a “trust the data” or “trust the science” guy. You are bending the data to suit your own narrative. You are hunting for explanations to suit your narrative (which has always been there has to be a way we can control this thing because you seem to have a need to believe it can be controlled). The funny mechanism at work here is the j...when pushed into a corner you have a tendency to want to fall back on the operating mechanism for reassurance: “I’m a math guy...I can do DEQ modeling...look at me”. it would indicate at various times in your career you have made what was ultimately proven to be a wrong decision, but you justified based on following the data when in truth you were following your intuition, but have for whatever reason become sensitive to that effect.
here’s why else it matters and why I’ve just blown my own mind. I’d speculate many people who enter public health are n’s as well but would psychologically want to classify themselves as being data driven. Why? Because they were attracted to the feature of being presented a problem that can be analyzed but not necessarily solved (as opposed to a rocket ship that if the fuel equations aren’t perfect it go boom). Add to that a healthy j (fauci is all about the j) and we get why they’ve behaved as they’ve behaved to the bafflement of many of the rest of us...whether true data people or true intuitives. In any case it explains a lot so much thanks for that insight....useful.
