Is Surf Cup happening?

So surf cup olders has been moved, any word on youngers? Thought I’d try
 
Desert Hound said:
I thought you were a CPA? Or am I mixing you up with someone else?

Peak polio deaths were around 1955. The world had approx 2.8 billion people.

Today we have about 7.8 billion people.

So if polio were that devastating given todays world wide population numbers...instead of 500k the number would be 1,392,857.

If you are going to compare deaths in the world, then you have to adjust for population.

So no comparing polio to covid is not anywhere close to appropriate.
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While I sort of appreciate your attempt to extrapolate numbers to make your argument, there are many reasons why a straight extrapolation for the purposes of your argument doesn't work. Among a multitude of reasons why that strategy doesn't work is the populations around the world are impacted differently by population growth, impact of illness (i.e. certain countries with less population increases are third world or slightly above that classification where more percentage of the population are impacted by deaths from Polio etc.)

If we are to just look at the US, the CDC noted 1,879 deaths from polio per year from 1950 to 1954. With a population increase of 28% (1950 to today) that works out to be death equivalents in today's numbers of 2,405 and paralytic case equivalents in today's numbers of 21,000.

"CDC reports for US Polio. Polio vaccine was licensed in the United States in 1955. During 1951-1954, an average of 16,316 paralytic polio cases and 1879 deaths from polio were reported each year (9,10)."

So, as I originally said, there is more than enough reason to compare Polio and COVID.
 
Desert Hound said:
I thought you were a CPA? Or am I mixing you up with someone else?

Peak polio deaths were around 1955. The world had approx 2.8 billion people.

Today we have about 7.8 billion people.

So if polio were that devastating given todays world wide population numbers...instead of 500k the number would be 1,392,857.

If you are going to compare deaths in the world, then you have to adjust for population.

So no comparing polio to covid is not anywhere close to appropriate.
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Once Dec 31 rolls around, I wouldn’t be surprised if your 1.4 million number is kind of close.

we are at 523K, with US, Afrcia, and Brazil all heading in the wrong direction. Another 900K over summer and fall is a pretty reasonable prediction.
 
Keepermom2 said:
While I sort of appreciate your attempt to extrapolate numbers to make your argument, there are many reasons why a straight extrapolation for the purposes of your argument doesn't work. Among a multitude of reasons why that strategy doesn't work is the populations around the world are impacted differently by population growth, impact of illness (i.e. certain countries with less population increases are third world or slightly above that classification where more percentage of the population are impacted by deaths from Polio etc.)

If we are to just look at the US, the CDC noted 1,879 deaths from polio per year from 1950 to 1954. With a population increase of 28% (1950 to today) that works out to be death equivalents in today's numbers of 2,405 and paralytic case equivalents in today's numbers of 21,000.

"CDC reports for US Polio. Polio vaccine was licensed in the United States in 1955. During 1951-1954, an average of 16,316 paralytic polio cases and 1879 deaths from polio were reported each year (9,10)."

So, as I originally said, there is more than enough reason to compare Polio and COVID.
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And....if you extrapolate COVID deaths based on the 5 month activity worldwide on the same basis that you did for calculating worldwide population equivalent which would also not be appropriate because of so many other variables, we still come up with about 1.3 million deaths worldwide from COVID.
 
Grace T. said:
but in the US you can generally get a test now with relatively little difficulty.
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Unfortunately, that's not the case in San Diego. It's very difficult to get a test without symptoms even if you've been directly exposed. You effectively have to lie to get a test, or pay $100, but that usually has to include a doctors referral. Apparently, there is no shortage of tests just concern over the ability to timely process the test. So those with symptoms get a significant priority.
 
watfly said:
Unfortunately, that's not the case in San Diego. It's very difficult to get a test without symptoms even if you've been directly exposed. You effectively have to lie to get a test, or pay $100, but that usually has to include a doctors referral. Apparently, there is no shortage of tests just concern over the ability to timely process the test. So those with symptoms get a significant priority.
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Agree...my friends in LA and OC were exposed to a person with confirmed COVID and couldn't get an appointment for a week. Even my friend's father who is 86 and had a dry cough that was getting worse couldn't get an appointment for testing at Kaiser for 9 days.
 
USC announced today it would no longer welcome students onto campus for in-person classes for the fall semester — reversing an earlier decision to bring students back for a hybrid in-person and digital learning model. Does this kill their football season too?
 
Keepermom2 said:
Agree...my friends in LA and OC were exposed to a person with confirmed COVID and couldn't get an appointment for a week. Even my friend's father who is 86 and had a dry cough that was getting worse couldn't get an appointment for testing at Kaiser for 9 days.
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I do know that some young adults that were exposed to Covid (friends of my niece, who was also exposed) were able to get same day tests and results this week in the OC, but had to wait in line for over 3 hours. Fortunately, all were negative.
 
The testing thing is so strange to me. I'm not in SoCal, (NorCal,) and also have Kaiser. I emailed me doc thinking I had a sinus infection but she wanted me to get a Covid test. Even though I had no know exposure. I got it next day via their drive thru site, (negative) results the next day.
 
watfly said:
Unfortunately, that's not the case in San Diego. It's very difficult to get a test without symptoms even if you've been directly exposed. You effectively have to lie to get a test, or pay $100, but that usually has to include a doctors referral. Apparently, there is no shortage of tests just concern over the ability to timely process the test. So those with symptoms get a significant priority.
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Those who have Blue Shield will have their tests covered, period. Don't know about other insurers.
 
Copa9 said:
Those who have Blue Shield will have their tests covered, period. Don't know about other insurers.
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As far as I know most insurers cover the cost from their providers. Some people choose to pay out of pocket to go outside their network and get immediate testing with faster results. If Blue Shield pays for out of network tests that's great coverage. Hopefully neither of us have to find out.
 
Keepermom2 said:
At the peak, Polio killed 500,000 people a year worldwide. Deaths from COVID worldwide today is 516,000. I guess comparing the 2 is more than appropriate.
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Can you give me a percentage per million of population then versus now? There are far more people in the world to say then when polio was a pandemic!
 
Kicker4Life said:
Can you give me a percentage per million of population then versus now? There are far more people in the world to say then when polio was a pandemic!
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pop is about 3x as large, but covid’s only been big for about 1/3 of a year. both work out to about 170,000 deaths per billion pop per year.
 
Keepermom2 said:
Agree...my friends in LA and OC were exposed to a person with confirmed COVID and couldn't get an appointment for a week. Even my friend's father who is 86 and had a dry cough that was getting worse couldn't get an appointment for testing at Kaiser for 9 days.
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Test was easy to get. I received an email that detailed local locations on a Sunday. On a lark (no symptoms), I clicked on a location and it asked if I wanted a test. I clicked yes. It then gave me a bunch of available appt times. I chose one for Tuesday at 11am. I had the negative results back on Friday. Zero cost. 5 min wait at the clinic. Couldn’t have been any easier.

Same thing with the anti-body test, but I was required to have an order from my primary care physician in order to avoid payment. (United Healthcare requirement)
 
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