You might be right - they are closer in the youngers. Here's what 2012B looks like in CA, first MLS HD, then ECNL. Finally - here's what MLS HD looks like without the Academies. MLS HD is significantly different at the moment, and even if the Academies are removed it's still above ECNL by half a goal. But if you look between age groups (like 2012 to 2011 for ECNL, or between 2012 to 2013 for MLS), pegging that as a difference of ~2 goals, means that a shift of 5 months would imply a shift half goal to a goal. From there, it does look like next year they could be pretty similar on average. I do not think this means that ECNL tryouts are suddenly much more competitive than the MLS HD (non academy) ones - it looks instead like they'd be on par. But we'll all be able to see how it actually works out in practice soon enough.
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(P.S. I really wish they'd release an API which would make things like this much easier to compile)