Get ready folks

[sigmabody]

This is exactly why this country struggles to develop top players; we push out the younger, later-developing kids who could grow into stars, all because we assume the early-developing, bigger, faster kids will stay dominant forever.

There's a converse element to this also, though, which parents sometimes overlook: as kids mature, there will be obvious and somewhat durable genetic differences in height, size, strength, etc. While it's accurate that early-developing kids are often placed on higher-level teams and given a durable advantage because of that (as they get better training, competition, etc.), some of those kids might also just end up being bigger, faster, etc. (which can make up for some other deficiencies, in terms of overall effectiveness in play).

I presume the clubs know this also (explicitly or implicitly), and at least some of that "unfair" advancement of early developing kids is aimed to pre select kids who might be just bigger and faster generally, for better effective training. While this might disadvantage some late developing kids, it might also be selecting for the best overall potential, statistically (for a much more limited amount of access and resources available for soccer training). I'm not sure if that's accurate or not, but it seems like something to at least consider also.

 

[Scrub It Kook]

There's a converse element to this also, though, which parents sometimes overlook: as kids mature, there will be obvious and somewhat durable genetic differences in height, size, strength, etc. While it's accurate that early-developing kids are often placed on higher-level teams and given a durable advantage because of that (as they get better training, competition, etc.), some of those kids might also just end up being bigger, faster, etc. (which can make up for some other deficiencies, in terms of overall effectiveness in play).

I presume the clubs know this also (explicitly or implicitly), and at least some of that "unfair" advancement of early developing kids is aimed to pre select kids who might be just bigger and faster generally, for better effective training. While this might disadvantage some late developing kids, it might also be selecting for the best overall potential, statistically (for a much more limited amount of access and resources available for soccer training). I'm not sure if that's accurate or not, but it seems like something to at least consider also.

I agree, genetics matter.

 

[Carlsbad7]

I agree, genetics matter.

Parents buy into RAE and the promises clubs make with Development until they witness a true freak of nature thats better than their kid physically in every way and age doesnt even matter. If a player like this is smart and has a high level of dedication / focus its scary.

Unfortunately you dont run into these type of players unless your kid is playing at the highest levels. When it happens the reality check helps to comprehend what playing professionally actually entails. If youngers and players on B and C teams got a chance to play against players like this they wouldn't keep trying to eat the cheese that clubs throw out to sell the dream.

Im not saying its impossible for "regular" players to go all the way. Its just nice to understand what you'll be up against if this is what youre shooting for.

 

[Grace T.]

There's a converse element to this also, though, which parents sometimes overlook: as kids mature, there will be obvious and somewhat durable genetic differences in height, size, strength, etc. While it's accurate that early-developing kids are often placed on higher-level teams and given a durable advantage because of that (as they get better training, competition, etc.), some of those kids might also just end up being bigger, faster, etc. (which can make up for some other deficiencies, in terms of overall effectiveness in play).

I presume the clubs know this also (explicitly or implicitly), and at least some of that "unfair" advancement of early developing kids is aimed to pre select kids who might be just bigger and faster generally, for better effective training. While this might disadvantage some late developing kids, it might also be selecting for the best overall potential, statistically (for a much more limited amount of access and resources available for soccer training). I'm not sure if that's accurate or not, but it seems like something to at least consider also.

1. You'll have the same effect regardless of where you set the line. They'll be winners and they'll be losers.
2. Soccereconomics showed the effect varies based on sport. In one study, for example, hockey showed that the teen youth elite hockey players 60% of the elite players in Canada were within a quarter of the age line. By the NHL it had weakened to 40%. So in short, there's a huge (almost compared to the final quarter 10x advantage) in being close to the age line in ice hockey in the short term, which weakens to 3x v. the final quarter over time. Part of it is the Matthew Effect, but mostly it's just people in the back quarter get frustrated and drop out....those that survive in the back half are especially forged because they are the ones who persevered against huge disadvantages, and now the sample pool (elite hockey players v. NHL players) has shrunk.

 

[TheMountie]

There's a converse element to this also, though, which parents sometimes overlook: as kids mature, there will be obvious and somewhat durable genetic differences in height, size, strength, etc. While it's accurate that early-developing kids are often placed on higher-level teams and given a durable advantage because of that (as they get better training, competition, etc.), some of those kids might also just end up being bigger, faster, etc. (which can make up for some other deficiencies, in terms of overall effectiveness in play).

I presume the clubs know this also (explicitly or implicitly), and at least some of that "unfair" advancement of early developing kids is aimed to pre select kids who might be just bigger and faster generally, for better effective training. While this might disadvantage some late developing kids, it might also be selecting for the best overall potential, statistically (for a much more limited amount of access and resources available for soccer training). I'm not sure if that's accurate or not, but it seems like something to at least consider also.

I’m talking about the younger age groups, from U9 to U14, just to be clear. Being tall and fast early on definitely helps, but if that’s all a kid relies on without building proper fundamentals, they’ll suffer long-term when their heavy touch and sprinting don’t work anymore against disciplined defenses.

We don’t live in a country where youth coaches consistently know how to develop fundamentals, either, you often have to seek outside personal training or have a kid genuinely become a student of the game. Speed absolutely helps in every facet of soccer, but you can’t rely on it alone. African nations produce some of the fastest players in the world, yet not a single African senior team has ever won the World Cup. (although they've dominated the youth World Cups)

Clubs often go for big, tall, fast kids and hope they’re genetically gifted enough to figure out all the other aspects of soccer on their own; that concept doesn’t work and never will. The best players in history were often 5’9” or shorter.

 

[Mosafie]

I’m talking about the younger age groups, from U9 to U14, just to be clear. Being tall and fast early on definitely helps, but if that’s all a kid relies on without building proper fundamentals, they’ll suffer long-term when their heavy touch and sprinting don’t work anymore against disciplined defenses.

We don’t live in a country where youth coaches consistently know how to develop fundamentals, either, you often have to seek outside personal training or have a kid genuinely become a student of the game. Speed absolutely helps in every facet of soccer, but you can’t rely on it alone. African nations produce some of the fastest players in the world, yet not a single African senior team has ever won the World Cup. (although they've dominated the youth World Cups)

Clubs often go for big, tall, fast kids and hope they’re genetically gifted enough to figure out all the other aspects of soccer on their own; that concept doesn’t work and never will. The best players in history were often 5’9” or shorter.

The Africanization of European soccer completely changed the game in the last 30 years. The speed and athleticism that African refugees brought to european academies led to the end of tiki taka and to the modern more direct style of soccer.

The Premier league has the fastest players in the world. Their average speed has continued to increase over the years.

While good coaching/training is essential, the speech and athleticism of players is more important that ever. Every single academy in the world now uses sprint speed as the number 1 scouting metric because it's one of the only measurable metrics in soccer.. The average speed is more positional but it's still a factor.

 

[Zeke]

Parents buy into RAE and the promises clubs make with Development until they witness a true freak of nature thats better than their kid physically in every way and age doesnt even matter. If a player like this is smart and has a high level of dedication / focus its scary.

Unfortunately you dont run into these type of players unless your kid is playing at the highest levels. When it happens the reality check helps to comprehend what playing professionally actually entails. If youngers and players on B and C teams got a chance to play against players like this they wouldn't keep trying to eat the cheese that clubs throw out to sell the dream.

Im not saying its impossible for "regular" players to go all the way. Its just nice to understand what you'll be up against if this is what youre shooting for.

You underestimate our natural capacity for self delusion.

 

[Sanjose]

My proposal:

- MLSNext Academy -> SY
- MLSNext Homegrown -> SY
- MLS academies -> BY (playing MLSNext Homegrown SY)

In this way MLS academies would play at Homegrown just "5 months up (August to December)", instead of the 1 whole year up they are playing currently.

Now, so many MLS academies are being hardly beaten by p2p MLSNext Homegrown teams, because of that 1 whole year up.

I think it wouldn't be good for them (MLS academies) to repeat this year experience.

 

[CAZZZ]

My proposal:

- MLSNext Academy -> SY
- MLSNext Homegrown -> SY
- MLS academies -> BY (playing MLSNext Homegrown SY)

In this way MLS academies would play at Homegrown just "5 months up (August to December)", instead of the 1 whole year up they are playing currently.

Now, so many MLS academies are being hardly beaten by p2p MLSNext Homegrown teams, because of that 1 whole year up.

I think it wouldn't be good for them (MLS academies) to repeat this year experience.

If my kid were born 2 months later, he could be scouted by the LA Galaxy. 1 year can make a massive difference between a regular top player and a younger elite player.

 

[Grace T.]

My proposal:

- MLSNext Academy -> SY
- MLSNext Homegrown -> SY
- MLS academies -> BY (playing MLSNext Homegrown SY)

In this way MLS academies would play at Homegrown just "5 months up (August to December)", instead of the 1 whole year up they are playing currently.

Now, so many MLS academies are being hardly beaten by p2p MLSNext Homegrown teams, because of that 1 whole year up.

I think it wouldn't be good for them (MLS academies) to repeat this year experience.

This doesn’t really work because there are two functions for the non academy mls clubs. The first is to have year round what effectively amounts to scrimmage partners given the big distances between academy clubs. The second is a recruitment ground especially in the younger ages. If the mlsn hg teams all begin to cluster around August-December but the academies are looking for January-April it effectively kills that function. The mls academies don’t have big scouting budgets so are looking to make scouting as easy as possible.

 

[Socal-Soccer-Dad]

This is spot on. This is why SY is works, a kid born in September who’s less physically developed and struggled for playing time, despite having skill and technical ability, high IQ, etc., now gets a real chance to feature on a strong ECNL team instead of starving for minutes on a BY MLS Next team. It’s discouraging for any kid to keep seeing their taller teammates get more playing time even when they’re less skilled.

This doesn't change anything.

It now makes August born kids the less physically developed kid.

Changing where the cut off doesn't solve anything at all, it just shifts the burden from one kid to another kid.

Besides, I don't think the whole school year vs calendar year really matter that much. The biggest kids on my kid's team have late birthdays in Oct, Nov, Dec. Kids grow and develop at different ages so arbitrary cut off in August or December doesn't really matter.

This is exactly why this country struggles to develop top players; we push out the younger, later-developing kids who could grow into stars, all because we assume the early-developing, bigger, faster kids will stay dominant forever.

I'm sorry - not to be disrespectful but completely untrue.

This country struggles to develop top players because soccer is like the 12th most popular sport in the US.

I went to England for a work trip and I had an opportunity to go to a League One match in the city I was staying in. It's third tier of English football. The away team won on a late goal and the place erupts. It's a midweek night and so many traveled to watch their team during the week. I couldn't believe that. And I realized we are NEVER gonna get that here in America.

In many parts of the country here in the US, high school football (American football) is more popular than soccer.

NFL's TV money is 40x that of the MLS TV money (even after the historically large Apple TV deal). It's $10B a year for NFL ($110B over 11 years) vs $250m for MLS ($2.5B 10 year deal).

As a comparison, ACC has a deal worth about $240M a year. ACC!

When I was looking all this up, I was surprised to find that NHL has a deal worth $625M a year. I didn't think people watched that much NHL.

Anyways, all to say that MLS is tiny. And it's such a small slice of American pastime and passion.

Granted, people do consume EPL or La Liga or UCL directly so soccer is bigger than just comparing MLS popularity so I can give you that much.

But still, in Brazil or England or Croatia, soccer is THE number one sport. There is no discussion. In America? It's a niche sport.

France doesn't spend time wondering why they can't match US dominance in golf.

 

[Carlsbad7]

This doesn't change anything.

It now makes August born kids the less physically developed kid.

Changing where the cut off doesn't solve anything at all, it just shifts the burden from one kid to another kid.

Besides, I don't think the whole school year vs calendar year really matter that much. The biggest kids on my kid's team have late birthdays in Oct, Nov, Dec. Kids grow and develop at different ages so arbitrary cut off in August or December doesn't really matter.



I'm sorry - not to be disrespectful but completely untrue.

This country struggles to develop top players because soccer is like the 12th most popular sport in the US.

I went to England for a work trip and I had an opportunity to go to a League One match in the city I was staying in. It's third tier of English football. The away team won on a late goal and the place erupts. It's a midweek night and so many traveled to watch their team during the week. I couldn't believe that. And I realized we are NEVER gonna get that here in America.

In many parts of the country here in the US, high school football (American football) is more popular than soccer.

NFL's TV money is 40x that of the MLS TV money (even after the historically large Apple TV deal). It's $10B a year for NFL ($110B over 11 years) vs $250m for MLS ($2.5B 10 year deal).

As a comparison, ACC has a deal worth about $240M a year. ACC!

When I was looking all this up, I was surprised to find that NHL has a deal worth $625M a year. I didn't think people watched that much NHL.

Anyways, all to say that MLS is tiny. And it's such a small slice of American pastime and passion.

Granted, people do consume EPL or La Liga or UCL directly so soccer is bigger than just comparing MLS popularity so I can give you that much.

But still, in Brazil or England or Croatia, soccer is THE number one sport. There is no discussion. In America? It's a niche sport.

France doesn't spend time wondering why they can't match US dominance in golf.

I agree with your assessment. In America with soccer there's nothing that really separates team A from team B. In other countries what makes things exciting is Pro/Rel and no salary caps. What this does is make how effectively a club implements a strategy for wins part of the drama thats happening on the field. With MLS because theres salary caps and no pro/rel a terrible club suffers no repercussions for fielding an awful product.

 

[twoclubpapa]

I went to England for a work trip and I had an opportunity to go to a League One match in the city I was staying in. It's third tier of English football. The away team won on a late goal and the place erupts. It's a midweek night and so many traveled to watch their team during the week. I couldn't believe that. And I realized we are NEVER gonna get that here in America.

I had a very similar experience, also League One. A Tuesday night, temperature in low 40s, 1500 away team supporters drove 2 hours for the match. Notably, after attending dozens of EPL, League Championship, League One and National League matches this was my first time in an away section.

 

[Socal-Soccer-Dad]

I had a very similar experience, also League One. A Tuesday night, temperature in low 40s, 1500 away team supporters drove 2 hours for the match. Notably, after attending dozens of EPL, League Championship, League One and National League matches this was my first time in an away section.

Yea that level of passion breeds talent - both quality and quantity - and that continues to drive the passion...
If they're that excited about third tier football... we are never going to be able to compete...

Kind of like how it is with American football here... (we are absolutely crazy about it)

And how it is with baseball in Japan (look at all the top world class baseball talent coming out of there)

 

[Scrub It Kook]

I agree with your assessment. In America with soccer there's nothing that really separates team A from team B. In other countries what makes things exciting is Pro/Rel and no salary caps. What this does is make how effectively a club implements a strategy for wins part of the drama thats happening on the field. With MLS because theres salary caps and no pro/rel a terrible club suffers no repercussions for fielding an awful product.

MLS is also very "cookie-cutter". All kits are Adidas with a variant of the same design, teams are franchises vs owned individually and 9 out of 10 MLS game day experiences are generic at best (Fireworks, the exact same chants and an NFL/MLB/NBA type announcer and crowd interaction). It's really the McDonalds of professional soccer. Even some USL teams have more personality than MLS.

 

[TheMountie]

This doesn't change anything.

It now makes August born kids the less physically developed kid.

Changing where the cut off doesn't solve anything at all, it just shifts the burden from one kid to another kid.

Besides, I don't think the whole school year vs calendar year really matter that much. The biggest kids on my kid's team have late birthdays in Oct, Nov, Dec. Kids grow and develop at different ages so arbitrary cut off in August or December doesn't really matter.

You say it doesn’t change anything, but it actually does. It groups kids by grade, for example, my kid was the only 6th grader on a team full of 7th graders. Now he can play with kids in the same grade as him going forward, including kids from other teams.

Your example about the biggest kids on your team having later birthdays isn’t common at all.... not even close. The bigger kids early on are almost always early birth year, unless a late-born kid happens to have tall parents.

I'm sorry - not to be disrespectful but completely untrue.

This country struggles to develop top players because soccer is like the 12th most popular sport in the US.

I went to England for a work trip and I had an opportunity to go to a League One match in the city I was staying in. It's third tier of English football. The away team won on a late goal and the place erupts. It's a midweek night and so many traveled to watch their team during the week. I couldn't believe that. And I realized we are NEVER gonna get that here in America.

In many parts of the country here in the US, high school football (American football) is more popular than soccer.

NFL's TV money is 40x that of the MLS TV money (even after the historically large Apple TV deal). It's $10B a year for NFL ($110B over 11 years) vs $250m for MLS ($2.5B 10 year deal).

As a comparison, ACC has a deal worth about $240M a year. ACC!

When I was looking all this up, I was surprised to find that NHL has a deal worth $625M a year. I didn't think people watched that much NHL.

Anyways, all to say that MLS is tiny. And it's such a small slice of American pastime and passion.

Granted, people do consume EPL or La Liga or UCL directly so soccer is bigger than just comparing MLS popularity so I can give you that much.

But still, in Brazil or England or Croatia, soccer is THE number one sport. There is no discussion. In America? It's a niche sport.

France doesn't spend time wondering why they can't match US dominance in golf.

I mean, that’s obviously a factor too, and I don’t disagree at all, but my point still stands. Both things can be true at the end of the day.

 

[Jamisfoes]

It’s advantageous to be the lower grade kid on a team. You have less homework to worry about.

 

[aong cangkol]

Yea that level of passion breeds talent - both quality and quantity - and that continues to drive the passion...
If they're that excited about third tier football... we are never going to be able to compete...

Kind of like how it is with American football here... (we are absolutely crazy about it)

And how it is with baseball in Japan (look at all the top world class baseball talent coming out of there)

And how is it possible that Greece produces Giannis, Serbia produces Jokic and France produces Wembanyama?

Passion for the sport is important but there is a systemic failure in US player development.
Pulisic is developed in Europe.

 

[jasportsdad]

And how is it possible that Greece produces Giannis, Serbia produces Jokic and France produces Wembanyama?

Passion for the sport is important but there is a systemic failure in US player development.
Pulisic is developed in Europe.

It is interesting that the top 5 NBA players right now (according to ESPNs rankings) are from outside the US.

The common argument as to why US soccer is behind is either because the system is broken, or because there is a lack of passion/interest/popularity, or both.

But why has the US dominance in basketball decreased? There's still passion/interest/popularity. So what is missing? Is it athletes? Doubt that has changed much in the last decade.

 

[Grace T.]

It is interesting that the top 5 NBA players right now (according to ESPNs rankings) are from outside the US.

The common argument as to why US soccer is behind is either because the system is broken, or because there is a lack of passion/interest/popularity, or both.

But why has the US dominance in basketball decreased? There's still passion/interest/popularity. So what is missing? Is it athletes? Doubt that has changed much in the last decade.

What changed is that Europe implemented an academy system for basketball

We have the double problem that: 1) our academy system isn’t really the same: we start late while Europe is off at u7, limited transfer payments so the incentives aren’t aligned, because we don’t have second and third tier leagues and the country is so big our academies wind up wasting a lot of time playing non competitive p2p mlsn teams; 2) once they graduate from the academies we don’t really have a pro pathway…our u17s actually do decently even against the big European teams…the drop off is in that 18-22 space because there aren’t lower leagues that can develop them and even if they play mls or mls pro the entry salaries are horrible.

The other thing is that basketball occupies a middle ground on the skill v athleticism track. It is a moderately skilled sport that you can make up a lot with raw athleticism and body build so the track is much easier to catch up. Gridiron football (outside of the qb position) is a very high athleticism sport (if you don’t have the build and innate power you just aren’t going to be good no matter how much training you have) but much lower skill relative to other sports (esp on the line) so a kid can jump in at high school and still have a shot at playing pro if they are a great athlete. Soccer is high skilled moderate athleticism: yes you need to be a great athlete but someone shorter like Messi can make it but the ramp to get skilled just takes ages.

 

[Jamisfoes]

I just heard a rumor that our club is going to reposition late birthday kids within the club way before the official tryout dates. Kids will know if they are getting dropped or promoted before the end of this year. Half of our roster (7-8 players) is likely to be upgraded with late birthday kids. Late birthday kids are coming from both A and B teams.