Feeling Blues - Relegation Time
- Thread starter RiverArsenal
- Start date
@Mancity17,
The problem with this entire premise is we have to logically accept that the USWNT players represent the best players in the US and we also have to logically accept the premise that youth development in a particular region has a direct impact on being the best senior player and consequently making the USWNT.
The problem we have is that the criteria for inclusion on the USWNT is not being the "best player," rather being a player deemed "good enough" through the subjective eyes of the coaching staff. Moreover, with the current USWNT collective bargaining agreement, the so-called best USWNT team players are salaried and under contract. The USWNT has a disincentive to cancel the contracts of those players "a little long in the tooth" and bring in new blood.
For example, based on the 2018 NWSL performance for Goalkeepers, the best American Goalkeeper in the league with over 1,000 minutes was Katelyn Rowland, with a Goals Against Average of .78. Did Rowland make the squad? Nope. The best female GK in the NWSL based on GAA didn't make the squad, instead we have Adrianna Franch (GAA 1); Jane Campbell (GAA 1.63); Ashlyn Harris (1.67) and Alyssa Naeher (1.27).
The reason Rowland didn't make the senior squad is politics and not skill, we have some older keepers that are good enough, let the young studette play on the U23 team instead. There are many players in similar situations, better than the current crop, but not as marketable as the Morgan's and Lloyd's.
Looking at the NWSL forwards, we have Lynn Williams (tied with Horan (on the squad) for scoring at 14 goals and 7th in the league for assists) not on team, neither is Sofia Huerta (8 goals), but these gals were chosen as the forwards over Williams.
The point here is the "best" are not on the USWNT, the "good enough" are, which means this whole discussion lacks logical.
The problem with this entire premise is we have to logically accept that the USWNT players represent the best players in the US and we also have to logically accept the premise that youth development in a particular region has a direct impact on being the best senior player and consequently making the USWNT.
The problem we have is that the criteria for inclusion on the USWNT is not being the "best player," rather being a player deemed "good enough" through the subjective eyes of the coaching staff. Moreover, with the current USWNT collective bargaining agreement, the so-called best USWNT team players are salaried and under contract. The USWNT has a disincentive to cancel the contracts of those players "a little long in the tooth" and bring in new blood.
For example, based on the 2018 NWSL performance for Goalkeepers, the best American Goalkeeper in the league with over 1,000 minutes was Katelyn Rowland, with a Goals Against Average of .78. Did Rowland make the squad? Nope. The best female GK in the NWSL based on GAA didn't make the squad, instead we have Adrianna Franch (GAA 1); Jane Campbell (GAA 1.63); Ashlyn Harris (1.67) and Alyssa Naeher (1.27).
The reason Rowland didn't make the senior squad is politics and not skill, we have some older keepers that are good enough, let the young studette play on the U23 team instead. There are many players in similar situations, better than the current crop, but not as marketable as the Morgan's and Lloyd's.
Looking at the NWSL forwards, we have Lynn Williams (tied with Horan (on the squad) for scoring at 14 goals and 7th in the league for assists) not on team, neither is Sofia Huerta (8 goals), but these gals were chosen as the forwards over Williams.
- Tobin Heath (Portland Thorns FC - 7 goals),
- Carli Lloyd (Sky Blue FC - 4 goals),
- Jessica McDonald (NC Courage - 7 goals),
- Alex Morgan (Orlando Pride - 5 goals),
- Christen Press (Utah Royals FC - 2 goals),
- Mallory Pugh (Washington Spirit - 2 goals),
- Megan Rapinoe (Reign FC - 7 goals)
The point here is the "best" are not on the USWNT, the "good enough" are, which means this whole discussion lacks logical.
outside!
DA
Teamwork. I believe an "All Star" team of SoCal elite players that practice together frequently and play as a team can beat the current youth national teams that seem to play more as a group of individuals. Soccer is a TEAM sport.
I know we all have our biases, but come on now. Is there something in the SoCal water that makes the players from that region better at teamwork? Do the clubs in SoCal teach better teamwork than other regions of the country? That's pretty ridiculous.
Simisoccerfan
PREMIER
The power of SoCal lies in it's vast population. If you look at things per capita on the women's side I believe you would find a few other areas of the country producing talent at a greater rate than SoCal. If SoCal was truly dominate you would think more of our local college teams would rank higher.
Nobody doubts that SoCal produces great talent and has a lot of advantages, including the large population. But the discussion here is about SoCal versus the REST OF THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. The guy said that he thinks SoCal would win because of teamwork. LOL. That's a ridiculous argument. And I'm from California.
I agree completely and that is what has helped our Women's program over the last 30 years. More kids to choose from means you can pick from more kids that have matured early and compete based on size and speed. I think California as a whole has tons of talent and easily the most overall due to population alone. I just get tired of the arrogance, as it is attributed to better development or athletes or what ever. The weather helps and the mix of affluence and great immigrant talent makes for an engine producing talent. The reason I jumped in at all is the statement that Socal could beat the rest of the country combined. lol. I will leave it at that.
outside!
DA
Perhaps I did not write clearly enough. The current youth national teams do not practice together very much and have crappy teamwork. I have watched quite a few girl's YNT games, and I have never seen a team play coherent soccer for a whole game. They have their moments and some great individual efforts, but the teamwork is very sloppy. While some of that is almost certainly coaching, the lack of teamwork is obvious. SoCal has a large enough population and a small enough area that it would have enough elite players close enough together to practice and play together frequently, hence having better teamwork and players good enough to over match the current youth national teams. I also said other there are other areas of the country that have similar population size and density could do something similar. The "REST OF THE COUNTRY" is too large geographically for a team to practice and play together enough to develop as a team without setting up some kind of residential training camp where the kids live away from home most of the year.
It is also its weather and the related opportunity for year-round play by a greater number of players. Over time, this causes players in SoCal competing against each other to have had more time playing, more time practicing. It is reasonable to assume that more time practicing and playing would allow an athlete to develop more skill than a comparable athlete with less time practicing and playing. And then those players are playing against each other and thereby elevating the collective level of play. Thus, it takes a special athlete to be as good or better than an average athlete with more time practicing and playing. So the weather coupled with the greater number of players playing due to population and the relative popularity of the sport among girls in SoCal, it is not hard to see that an average player out of SoCal is going to compare well against an average player out of many other areas that lack those inherent advantages. I would be glad to trade whatever advantage there is for a cheaper housing market. Weather cuts both ways, to be sure.
All this means nothing, however, in terms of the outlier special athletes. They can be born anywhere and there are certainly enough sophisticated training platforms in other areas to develop a special athlete into a truly great player.
Would be fun, however, to have a Ryder Cup style tournament of California or SoCal in particular against everyone else. If we could all get full participation of the best players in ODP with more regular training, that would be a good platform to settle the argument.
All this means nothing, however, in terms of the outlier special athletes. They can be born anywhere and there are certainly enough sophisticated training platforms in other areas to develop a special athlete into a truly great player.
Would be fun, however, to have a Ryder Cup style tournament of California or SoCal in particular against everyone else. If we could all get full participation of the best players in ODP with more regular training, that would be a good platform to settle the argument.
Please don't we have enough problems with Californians moving here. We have enough good players as well.
outside!
DA
And when did your family move to Colorado?
Eagle33
PREMIER
Not at any part of the world they have National teams training together for long time. Players are picked from competitive teams, have a short training camp and play at whatever they play.
outside!
DA
Many times a sizeable portion of the team will be from one or two clubs (Spain, Germany) or from a small country where they play against each other frequently.
If we are going to have a valid thought experiment ... if SoCal fielded a National Team, would it beat the US (minus SoCal national team), then we have to look at this slightly differently.
SoCal is 25 million souls. The USA minus SoCal is about 305 million souls. So purely on a population basis, we should find more "unicorns" in the 305 million population. However, we know that many of the players in the 305 million population will never have an opportunity to fully develop into a unicorn because population density in their states make it near impossible (Alaska, Montana, Main, etc.).
Rather than weeding though what States and population densities are adequate, let's make it easy and ask is 25 million enough to find 24 unicorns (i.e. elite players that can make a national team) ... and if we are being honest we really only need 15 to 16 that will actually play and get minutes.
With a population of 25 million, are there 24 "unicorns" to be found in SoCal? We can infer that countries that are perennial competitors at the Women's World Cup will give us the "floor" to the question. Therefore, all we need to do is look at countries like England (66 Million), Norway (5.3 Million) , Germany (83 Million), Sweden (10 Million) and Japan (126 Million), which over the last few World Cup cycles are perennial top teams.
We have floor ... Norway with a population of 5.3 million - Champions in 1995, runner up in 1991, 4th place in 2007 and 1999. In fact, Norway is ranked 3rd behind German and the US as most final 4 finishes in the Women's world cup.
Is is reasonable to conclude that SoCal could field a team that would beat a similarly aged girls/women's youth team from any other country, including the US? Yes, because Norway tells us that 5.3 Million people is enough. But, its also reasonable to conclude that the SoCal National Team would get beaten more frequently than it wins because there are more unicorns to be found in the 303 million population.
SoCal is 25 million souls. The USA minus SoCal is about 305 million souls. So purely on a population basis, we should find more "unicorns" in the 305 million population. However, we know that many of the players in the 305 million population will never have an opportunity to fully develop into a unicorn because population density in their states make it near impossible (Alaska, Montana, Main, etc.).
Rather than weeding though what States and population densities are adequate, let's make it easy and ask is 25 million enough to find 24 unicorns (i.e. elite players that can make a national team) ... and if we are being honest we really only need 15 to 16 that will actually play and get minutes.
With a population of 25 million, are there 24 "unicorns" to be found in SoCal? We can infer that countries that are perennial competitors at the Women's World Cup will give us the "floor" to the question. Therefore, all we need to do is look at countries like England (66 Million), Norway (5.3 Million) , Germany (83 Million), Sweden (10 Million) and Japan (126 Million), which over the last few World Cup cycles are perennial top teams.
We have floor ... Norway with a population of 5.3 million - Champions in 1995, runner up in 1991, 4th place in 2007 and 1999. In fact, Norway is ranked 3rd behind German and the US as most final 4 finishes in the Women's world cup.
Is is reasonable to conclude that SoCal could field a team that would beat a similarly aged girls/women's youth team from any other country, including the US? Yes, because Norway tells us that 5.3 Million people is enough. But, its also reasonable to conclude that the SoCal National Team would get beaten more frequently than it wins because there are more unicorns to be found in the 303 million population.
Sorry for the late reply, life and work got in the way.
Nice article, but that includes the impact of men on the game.
I found this article also to be interesting: https://www.soccerwire.com/blog-posts/which-youth-clubs-had-the-most-u-s-youth-wnt-call-ups-in-2018/
It lists the number of players/their clubs/and geographic locations of all female players called up from the youth levels (U14-U23) on to the US Women's teams in 2018. Of the 245 total players called up 72 of them are from SoCal.
I know it does not respond to the original question, but poses a strong argument for what has occurred in the past and in the present.
outside!
DA
I think many have missed my original point. It was not that SoCal somehow magically has better players. It was that the shear number of high level players in close proximity would enable the formation of a high level league of say 8-12 teams that could play each other regularly. Like any league, there would be teams that dominate and teams that don't. If there were such a league, and the all-stars were pulled together to practice frequently it would produce a team that would be better than the current youth national teams due to the ability to play as a team. I am sure there are other areas of the country that could do the same.
Venantsyo
GOLD
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