The economic outlook for 2019, from the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory. The yield curve is close to inverting, and if it continues we should expect a recession by the end of 2019 or, failing that, almost certainly in 2020. There are two types of Fed tightening during this recovery, namely interest rate hikes and a rolloff of the Fed’s bonds. Powell can’t indefinitely postpone the bond rolloff because as interest rates rise, the Fed is paying ever more billions in interest to the commercial banks.—Lara & Murphy
The result of 6 straight years of QE. Fries U! What a deal! Here we go spigot boy! They’ll be calling you to turn the handle soon