I don’t disagree with anything here. But my point is the “oh let’s let little Johnny play recreational soccer to enjoy himself” is the problem. Soccer requires the casting of a very large net particularly at the early ages. Reason why is because it takes a very unique combination of athleticism, soccer iq, and technical skills. China represents the limits of the academy system: you need a broad grassroots and not just a strong academy system. As you point out academies particularly function in other sports (particularly the individual ones based purely on athleticism). In soccer to work you need to be able to churn: pick up players you think will work; some portion won’t work; that part needs to be ruthlessly dumped; go back to the well to pick up more players; rinse and repeat. It doesn’t work without the well, which in most of the world is kids playing tiered rec or lower level academy ball. In China, you aren’t an obvious pick on the academy track and they shift, especially given the Confucian prejudice against athletics and towards study.
As to success they’ve been at it a very short time: they only made it a priority at the 2014 party congress at the personal insistence of Xi. The us has been at it since the 90s. In that short time period they’ve established a national league, broadened the appeal of the game, and developed the infrastructure of an academy system. I agree however that their success on the international stage has been a disappointment for the leadership, and if Xi were suddenly to exit the stage Chinese soccer might lose its investment status as a result.
