Climate and Weather

[Desert Hound]

That was the big question 20 years ago.

Today, Chinese wind and solar installations are the largest in the world. They are considerably ahead of us in developing renewable energy.

Under half of their electricity is from fossil fuels, and it is changing quickly.

Fossil Fuels Now Account for Less Than Half of China's Power Capacity

e360.yale.edu

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I don’t find it all that difficult to imagine China with an electric grid fueled entirely by wind, solar, and nuclear. They’re already most of the way there.

Now do the same analysis for USA. We’ve got work to do.

If only that were true.

Here is the actual breakdown of China energy usage. They are nowhere close to getting 50% of their power from renewables. So no they are not ALMOST there.

Coal and gas right now make up about 80% of their energy consumption.

 

[Desert Hound]

Here is a chart from 2021. 83% of energy is coal, petroleum or nat gas.

They didnt make huge changes between then and now in terms of energy breakdown.

 

[watfly]

If you acknowledge that China has managed to shift 1/2 of their electricity production to non fossil fuel sources, then how can you claim that "there is no feasible or economic way to materially reduce emissions"?

These two claims cannot both be true. If it just happened, then it is clearly not impossible.

Huh? What part of China is adding 4x as much coal as opposed to solar (and more than all renewables combined), while setting emissions records year over year, don't you understand? Incredibly ironic that you as school teacher ignores basic math when it doesn't fit your narrative. Somehow you and Espola implausibly equate China using renewable energy to China reducing emissions. China isn't replacing coal and oil energy, they are just adding alternative energy sources into the mix.

 

[Desert Hound]

"The all-renewable agenda pushed by NGOs and the Biden Administration’s EPA threatens the reliability and resilience of our electric grid. Regulators and policymakers have repeatedly warned about the looming crisis. For instance, in May, members of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission delivered stark warnings to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The agency’s acting chairman, Willie Phillips, told the senators, “We face unprecedented challenges to the reliability of our nation’s electric system.” FERC Commissioner Mark Christie echoed Phillips’ warning, saying the U.S. electric grid is “heading for a very catastrophic situation in terms of reliability.” Commissioner James Danly warned of a “looming reliability crisis in our electricity markets.” Danly continued, saying that policies and subsidies “designed to promote the deployment of non-dispatchable wind and solar assets” are causing reliability concerns because the subsidies are helping “drive fossil-fuel generators out of business.”

Alarm on Energy

It’s time for the Biden Administration and Congress to understand that energy security is national security.

americanmind.org

 

[espola]

If that were the case*, then why aren't we seeing a corresponding decrease in global temperatures?

*China continues to hit record high CO2 emissions. Per capita is irrelevant, as China greatly outpaces the US in total emissions. China's emissions are 1/3 of all world emissions, which is nearly 3x higher than the US. China emissions have increased 353% since 1990 whereas the US has decreased over that same time period. Every time you use the word "facts", you just dig yourself a deeper hole. But thanks for using the term "facts" so that we know what follows will be a complete lie.

If all these efforts result in holding the line at current emission levels, that is still much more than can be removed by natural processes and will therefore result in an increase in the total CO2 in the atmosphere. The effect on global temperatures will also continue upward.

 

[dad4]

Here is a chart from 2021. 83% of energy is coal, petroleum or nat gas.

They didnt make huge changes between then and now in terms of energy breakdown.

View attachment 18595

Totally worth assessing the difference between the two numbers. "50.9% of electricity" is a different question than "total energy consumption", but total energy consumption is the better question.

I suspect both are true numbers. 49% of electricity, but 83% of total energy consumption. It just implies that there is a very large amount of non-electricity energy consumption.

 

[watfly]

Totally worth assessing the difference between the two numbers. "50.9% of electricity" is a different question than "total energy consumption", but total energy consumption is the better question.

I suspect both are true numbers. 49% of electricity, but 83% of total energy consumption. It just implies that there is a very large amount of non-electricity energy consumption.

Your article is based upon capacity which is not a comparable metric for energy sources. Coal and oil operate much closer to capacity. Whereas, solar and wind energy rely on, sun and wind which is not consistent, or arguably reliable. Hence DH's article "Alarm on Energy". Use drives emissions, not capacity. Capacity is largely irrelevant.

 

[dad4]

Your article is based upon capacity which is not a comparable metric for energy sources. Coal and oil operate much closer to capacity. Whereas, solar and wind energy rely on, sun and wind which is not consistent, or arguably reliable. Hence DH's article "Alarm on Energy". Use drives emissions, not capacity. Capacity is largely irrelevant.

I prefer fuel used as the metric for fossil. Simply measuring GWh generated ignores the emissions cost of variability. (peaker plants are high emission)

Point remains that China is doing quite a bit to cut their coal dependence. Take a look at Hound’s graph. The coal line takes a significant dip.

This undercuts your claim that it is impossible to meaningfully reduce emissions. That dip in coal use is itself a meaningful reduction in emissions.

 

[watfly]

I prefer fuel used as the metric for fossil. Simply measuring GWh generated ignores the emissions cost of variability. (peaker plants are high emission)

Point remains that China is doing quite a bit to cut their coal dependence. Take a look at Hound’s graph. The coal line takes a significant dip.

This undercuts your claim that it is impossible to meaningfully reduce emissions. That dip in coal use is itself a meaningful reduction in emissions.

As a math teacher I thought you would understand the difference between a total gross amount and a percentage. My bad. Yes, coal is a smaller piece of the pie, but the pie keeps getting bigger, as does the increase in coal powered energy production and consumption. Which results in an increase in emissions, as opposed to a "meaningful reduction in emissions". China is up 10% in emissions over last year. That's a big increase.

 

[dad4]

As a math teacher I thought you would understand the difference between a total gross amount and a percentage. My bad. Yes, coal is a smaller piece of the pie, but the pie keeps getting bigger, as does the increase in coal powered energy production and consumption. Which results in an increase in emissions, as opposed to a "meaningful reduction in emissions". China is up 10% in emissions over last year. That's a big increase.

It’s a big increase, but it’s one time. Power use went up because they ended covid restrictions. You’d be hard pressed to find a less predictive number.

 

[crush]

It’s a big increase, but it’s one time. Power use went up because they ended covid restrictions. You’d be hard pressed to find a less predictive number.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

It’s a big increase, but it’s one time. Power use went up because they ended covid restrictions. You’d be hard pressed to find a less predictive number.

So, how predictive is this on future coal use in China?

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-six-times-more-new-coal-plants-than-other-countries-report-fin

 

[watfly]

Not that facts are relevant to anyone blinded by a narrative but...

China’s average coal power emissions rise by a third, report says

Australia, South Korea and China are top coal electricity polluters per capita.

www.rfa.org

China’s coal power plant spree

China is currently the world’s biggest coal consumer and the largest greenhouse gas emitter.

According to new data released last week, China has recently gone on a “frantic permitting and construction” spree of new coal plants, which accounts for 70% of this capacity globally.

The Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said that China brought 25.9 GW of coal-fired power capacity online in the first six months of 2023.

It also started construction on 37 GW of new coal power capacity, gave permission for 52 GW, announced 41 GW of new projects, and revived 8 GW of previously shelved projects.

“All of these parts of the project pipeline are currently running at a pace of more than one coal power plant per week,” the report said.

Outside China, India has the most planned coal power, while Indonesia, Japan, and Vietnam are among the few Asian countries building the world’s new coal plants.

 

[crush]

 

[Desert Hound]

It’s a big increase, but it’s one time. Power use went up because they ended covid restrictions. You’d be hard pressed to find a less predictive number

Time and time again you are so wrong.

As my charts show...China has massively increased coal usage. And as pointed out above they are building new coal power plants at an astonishing rage. That is not as you say "one time".

 

[crush]

Time and time again you are so wrong.

As my charts show...China has massively increased coal usage. And as pointed out above they are building new coal power plants at an astonishing rage. That is not as you say "one time".

The "Hound Charts" never let us down. Great work brother. I'm so glad you and your family said no. I love you man. I'm already getting some private companies interested n my services, just because I said no and as willing to lose everything for not complying. Some of Trumps inner circle caved into pleading a little guilty so they don't serve time. Meadows was attacked for 3 years, and he finally caved into being a guilt and get Trump. These cheaters & liars are nasty. They love war with other people's children. Dad has been so dead wrong, his wrong has killed other humans. His wrongs have been so fucking wrong, people like me in Southern California lost everything business wise and have to learn a new way to earn a living without selling your soul to the Jabs, the mask and to Big Corp and also Big Fucking U. They trapped us, surrounded us and tried to make me a fool, just like the fools theyr are. Now their only thing left to lie about is the Climate Hoax and the Weather Lies.

 

[dad4]

So, how predictive is this on future coal use in China?

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-six-times-more-new-coal-plants-than-other-countries-report-fin

Alone, it doesn't say much.

Tell me how much capacity they are decommissioning, and you'll have your answer.

 

[Desert Hound]

Alone, it doesn't say much.

Tell me how much capacity they are decommissioning, and you'll have your answer.

Well here you go...and you wont like the answer....


Plant retirements slowed down further in 2022, with 4.1 GW of coal-fired capacity closed down in 2022, compared with 5.2 GW in 2021. Policies on closing down small and inefficient plants have been revised to keep these plants online instead as back-up or in normal operation after retrofits.Feb 27, 2023

The Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said that China brought 25.9 GW of coal-fired power capacity online in the first six months of 2023.

It also started construction on 37 GW of new coal power capacity, gave permission for 52 GW, announced 41 GW of new projects, and revived 8 GW of previously shelved projects.

They are not closing down a lot of GW of power produced by coal plants BUT are adding substantially MORE capacity vs what is being closed.

There is you answer.

 

[Desert Hound]

China currently has 1100 coal plants. Another 100+ have been approved and or being built.

By way of comparison the US currently has 220 plants.

 

[watfly]

China currently has 1100 coal plants. Another 100+ have been approved and or being built.

By way of comparison the US currently has 220 plants.

China is also the largest producer of wind and solar energy. However, the development of new coal plants is far outpacing renewables. Dad4 equates developing wind/solar as replacing coal and oil. That couldn't be farther from the truth, which again, is obviously irrelevant to Dad4.

China is attacking its energy production from every angle, which is what we should do. At this point, renewables are good as backup energy, but poor as primary energy.

 

[Desert Hound]

“Renewables funds see record outflows as rising rates, costs hit shares” [Reuters – 10/10/2023]

Investors ditched renewable energy funds at the fastest rate on record in the three months to end-September as cleaner energy shares took a beating from higher interest rates and soaring material costs, which are squeezing profit margins.

No, the problem isn’t “soaring material costs.” The problem is that unreliable energy sources such as wind and solar are bad investments that require government subsidies to stay operational in the best of circumstances.


“Connecticut’s biggest offshore wind project nearly dead in the water” [CT Mirror – 10/03/2023]

Connecticut’s largest offshore wind project — Park City Wind — is not quite dead in the water but is now on serious life support.
Its developer, Avangrid, announced Monday night that it and Connecticut’s utilities have terminated an agreement for the utilities to buy the power from the project. In doing so, Park City, at 804 megawatts, becomes the third major New England offshore wind project, and the second for Avangrid, to hit the shoals.
The reason for each is the same. The economy has shifted so much since the power purchase agreements, PPAs, were negotiated, that the projects are no longer viable.

Wind projects never were viable, because they never produced a single reliable kilowatt of electricity, much less at an affordable price.


“Offshore wind developers likely to cancel some contracts after New York decision” [Reuters – 10/20/2023]

Developers in the U.S. offshore wind industry will likely cancel some power sales contracts in New York after the state last week denied passing on more of the costs to consumers…

“Orsted offshore wind farm hit with lawsuit by New Jersey county; Lawsuit seeks to invalidate federal approvals for the farm” [Reuters – 10/17/2023]

A southern New Jersey county on Tuesday challenged federal approvals for a major wind farm in U.S. waters off the state's coast, saying the project’s turbines and construction will harm endangered animals like whales, kill birds and impact local tourism.

The public is starting to aggressively reject wind energy and much of the green agenda.