And yet total global emissions have declined...
96% of weather stations produce corrupted data...Hottest June on record --
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year
2001 45 44 55 50 58 52 59 49 52 50 72 56 53 51 39 54 53 58 2001
2002 77 78 88 58 64 53 61 53 63 54 59 44 63 64 70 70 56 58 2002
2003 75 58 60 55 61 48 58 64 62 72 53 75 62 59 59 58 57 62 2003
2004 58 72 63 61 37 44 26 45 50 60 72 51 53 55 69 54 38 61 2004
2005 74 60 74 67 63 65 61 60 71 75 74 68 68 66 61 68 62 73 2005
2006 56 73 63 47 48 66 54 71 65 69 74 79 64 63 66 52 63 69 2006
2007 102 70 73 76 69 61 60 60 60 58 59 49 66 69 84 73 60 59 2007
2008 30 38 74 53 49 49 60 46 61 67 68 54 54 54 39 59 51 65 2008
2009 64 53 54 61 65 64 73 68 72 65 79 67 65 64 57 60 69 72 2009
2010 75 83 92 84 75 68 62 67 63 70 81 45 72 74 75 84 66 72 2010
2011 52 48 65 65 53 62 70 74 56 66 59 61 61 60 48 61 69 60 2011
2012 49 49 58 72 78 64 58 65 72 79 78 53 65 65 53 69 62 77 2012
2013 71 62 67 54 61 69 60 69 77 69 83 70 67 66 62 60 66 76 2013
2014 76 55 78 80 86 67 58 82 87 80 66 78 74 74 67 81 69 78 2014
2015 85 90 96 76 80 80 72 80 85 109 106 116 90 86 84 84 78 100 2015
2016 117 137 136 110 95 79 84 101 90 89 92 86 101 104 123 114 88 90 2016
2017 102 113 116 94 91 71 81 87 77 90 88 93 92 91 101 100 80 85 2017
2018 82 85 88 89 82 77 82 76 80 102 82 91 85 85 86 86 78 88 2018
2019 93 95 117 101 85 90 94 95 93 101 99 109 98 96 93 101 93 98 2019
2020 117 124 117 113 101 91 90 87 98 88 110 81 101 104 117 110 89 99 2020
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year
2021 81 64 88 75 78 84 91 81 92 100 93 85 84 84 75 81 86 95 2021
2022 91 89 105 83 84 92 93 95 89 97 72 79 89 90 88 91 93 86 2022
2023 86 97 120 100 93 107 **** **** **** **** **** **** **** *** 88 104 **** **** 2023
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year
Divide by 100 to get changes in degrees Celsius (deg-C).
Multiply that result by 1.8(=9/5) to get changes in degrees Fahrenheit (deg-F).
What is really corrupted is climate journalism.96% of weather stations produce corrupted data...
Reporting disproportionately deemphasized studies in the social and political sciences, economics, technology, engineering, energy and agriculture — these are all topics related to what might be done on climate change.Overall, 56% of the top-100 mediatized papers on natural science report rate or magnitude of climate-driven changes at continental or global scales (40% being projections by the end-of-the-century), while those represent only 4% of the random paperset.
The authors hold a position that I do not — that the main purpose of media coverage of climate is to motivate people to act on climate, whatever that means. In my discussions of climate journalism with reporters (those that will speak to me) I often hear a similar view, that the purpose of climate journalism is advocacy for climate as a cause.Thereby, a few articles get a lot of news mentions, limiting the diversity of information to which readers are exposed (Ortega, 2021). The selective sourcing of news media for high-profile journals and strong degree of co-mention in news outlets thereby come with a loss of disciplinary diversity of the research brought to public’s attention, with over-emphasis on natural science and health, while research findings produced on the social, economic, technological and energy-related aspects of climate change are curtailed back through the mediatization process. The selectivity is even found within the dominant natural science. Mediatized scientific publications are selectively concentrated on the worldwide magnitude of the current consequences of climate change, and projected risks by the end of the century for natural Earth components.
This definition of “climate communication” is evocative of what almost a century ago political scientist Harold Lasswell called, “the management of collective attitudes by the manipulation of significant symbols” — or political propaganda. If the idea that climate journalism is engaged in political propaganda seems uncomfortable, then try instead advocacy journalism.[C]limate communication research builds on social sciences to explore how and to what extent climate change is relayed and framed whilst developing optimized strategies and guidelines for transforming public engagement into actions.
Climate journalism wasn’t always dominated by an advocacy agenda. More than a decade ago, I along with colleagues Ursula Rick and Max Boykoff evaluated 20 years of media coverage of sea level rise. We found overall media reporting on sea level rise to be highly consistent with the scientific literature and the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, summarized in the figures below.Although they may look and behave like modern media organizations, they are advocacy groups, and have an explicit agenda; they’re looking for impact. That agenda may coincide with the news, and they may use traditional journalistic techniques to advance it, but in most cases the larger goal of this work is in service of some kind of policy change or other action, and not information or the public record per se.
Less than a week later, the AFP followed up with an article also critical of the paper, with the headline, “Scientists urge top publisher to withdraw faulty climate study.”“another example of scientists from totally unrelated fields coming in and naively applying inappropriate methods to data they don’t understand. Either the consensus of the world’s climate experts that climate change is causing a very clear increase in many types of weather extremes is wrong, or a couple of nuclear physics dudes in Italy are wrong.”
The other scientist calling for the paper’s retraction was Stefan Rahmstorf, Head of Earth Systems at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research who stated,"They are writing this article in bad faith. If the journal cares about science they should withdraw it loudly and publicly, saying that it should not have been published."
Two other scientists quested by the AFP, Peter Cox and Richard Betts, both of the University of Exeter, explicitly opposed the idea of retraction. Cox noted that retraction could "lead to further publicity and could be presented as censorship.""I do not know this journal, but if it is a self-respecting one it should withdraw the article"
<cont>Dear Prof. Alimoti,
We are contacting you today regarding your article
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02243-9
A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming
in our journal EPJ Plus, and where you are the corresponding author.
We are sure you and your co-authors are already aware of the public dispute this has generated,
see e.g.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/22/sky-and-the-australian-find-no-evidence-of-a-climate-emergency-they-werent-looking-hard-enough
https://phys.org/news/2022-09-scientists-urge-publisher-faulty-climate.html
Included in these reports are numerous concerns of scientists who are considered highly expert in this subject.
As a result of these circumstances it is now necessary that the journal carry out an investigation to assess the validity of these concerns, in line with good practice when concerns of this type are brought to a journal. An editorial note on the homepage of the above mentioned article will be added stating:
Readers are alerted that the conclusions reported in this manuscript are currently under dispute.
The journal is investigating the issue.
We will be contacting you shortly to provide further details of next steps.
Thank you for your cooperation on this matter.
Barbara Ancarani (SIF) & Christian Caron (Springer Nature)
cc Editor-in-Chief of EPJ Plus (Prof. Beatrice Fraboni)
Ongena responded immediately:“. . . we are facing some issues with a paper in your area. The publishers have asked the Editors to take action.”
Ongena followed up with a second email with a proposal:“The article has undergone the usual peer review. There should be no blame and shame… Peer reviewing is the common practice. That there is a discussion seems not abnormal and seems a very healthy thing.”
Alimonti responded to the publishers email (Ancarani/Caron above) on 4 Oct 2022 with a similar proposal to that made by Ongena — specifically to engage the different views in the literature, as is normally done in science:“I would invite the colleagues that have objections to send in their objections and to pass them on to the authors. To start a discussion in the press as they already did is certainly worse than publishing a critical paper. They could later also be invited to publish a comment.
We should as a journal not refrain or be afraid from a scientific discussion, but it should be in a correct way.”
Alimonti continued and took particular issue with the comment of Michael Mann about one of his co-authors:“Dear Dr. Caron,
after confronting with the other authors, we believe a possible correct way to criticize a scientific paper would be to write a detailed summary about what is supposed to be not correct and complete it with references; in other words a paper with precise counter arguments or at least a detailed report that should be sent to the journal where the original paper has been published; at this point the authors of the criticized paper may give detailed answers and the journal may decide further steps. Have Springer or EPJP been somehow formally contacted with a detailed counter analysis? If so, please forward us any comment so that we can properly answer; if not, we believe that considering “under discussion” a scientific paper that underwent a peer review process just on the basis of interviews appeared on online newspapers or blogs, even if authoritative, is not what a scientific method requires.”
The co-chief-editor of EPJP, Fabroni, initially appears to have accepted this proposed course of action on 9 Oct 2022:“Prof. Prodi, a distinguished climatologist, not just “a nuclear physics dude”, reminds me that he also served as Editor of Springer for many years: criticizing him as author would be a critic to Springer in selecting reviewers and editors. The Publisher should defend its scientific integrity in a resolute way, in order not to lose prestige itself, by moving at the request of newspapers or by denying its role.”
The eight “colleagues who expressed concern” via the media (and listed above) all apparently chose not to provide a scientific comment on Alimonti et al. and no further discussion of the comment was made in subsequent correspondence that I have seen.“After having received various feedbacks we have decided to contact the colleagues who expressed concern on the paper to provide a scientific comment that we will then send out to independent reviewers. If and when the Comment will be approved by them, we will share it with the authors so that they will be able to address the issues raised. Also their reply will be peer-reviewed.”
Fabroni’s reply to Alimonti stated:“The reply has been drafted with the assistance of the Springer Research Integrity Department, after carefully taking into consideration the feedbacks received from the colleagues who criticised the paper in the media”
The “clear weakness” was described by Fabroni as a “main criticism” and it was that the paper did not reference the IPCC AR6, which had not been published at the time that Alimonti et al. was written, reviewed or published.“Thank you very much for your patience – we have analyzed the case now in-depth. While we acknowledge that the media coverage has certainly made the case temporarily bigger than necessary, it has also uncovered a clear weakness of your paper that we believe must eventually be addressed.”
Alimonti et al. were given a choice to prepare an “erratum” or not. If they chose to prepare an “erratum” then Fraboni asked that it discuss floods, drought and heavy precipitation, drawing on relevant sections if the IPCC AR6 Working Group 1. Here are how the choices were presented to Alimonti:“Indeed, a main criticism is that your paper refers essentially only to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5 of 2013. . . “
<cont>1) You will submit an Erratum taking the final, published version of AR6 into account, where the above criticism is explicitly addressed and any conclusion that needs to be revised will be detailed. This Erratum paper, where we expect ample references to the published AR6, will be thoroughly assessed by also involving scientists from the cited parts of AR6.
The Erratum has to be submitted before Dec 31st, 2022.
2) If you decide not to submit such an Erratum or the Erratum is not submitted by the above deadline, the journal will publish an Editorial where we summarize our findings, very much as outlined above and the present Editorial Note on your article will be changed to a permanent Editorial Expression of Concern that will refer to this Editorial.
Alimonti et al. then prepared an Addendum to their paper, which the journal sent out for review.we thank you for your message where you acknowledge that “the media coverage has certainly made the case temporarily bigger than necessary”.
Since the main request arising from your message is to write a paper with ample references to a document that was not referenceable at the time our article was submitted, we believe an Addenda from our side is the most appropriate paper that would answer your request, as specified in
https://www.springer.com/journal/13360/submission-guidelines
Reviewer 1 also notes:“I totally agree that the origin of the large increase in the number of weather and climate related catastrophic events is largely due to increased exposure and vulnerability connected to demographic and economic growth rather than to climate change”
Reviewer 1 concludes:“In this manuscript, as well as in [Alimonti et al.], it is stressed that despite the existence of detectable trends in mean variables, in most cases no trends in extreme events exist. I understand what the authors mean, but caution has to be paid to the exact wording of the sentences. . . Detecting trends in extreme events is much more difficult than detecting trends in mean variables. Clearly, the limited amount of data for extreme events makes much more difficult to detect changes in a statistically significant way. The large interannual variability of extreme event statistics means that even if changes are present, the limited amount of data at our disposal makes them undetectable for long times.”
Reviewer 2 recommended “Accept as it” and noted:“in my opinion the manuscript cannot be published”
The journal sent the comments of Reviewer 1 to Alimonti et al. who then revised their Addendum and responded to EPJP with the revision and response to reviews. Reviewer 1 (and apparently inly Reviewer 1) was sent the revised Addendum. Reviewer 1 re-reviewed the Addendum and responded to the journal with the following conclusion (my emphasis added):“The statements made by the authors are generally in agreement with the assessment produced by the working group 1 of the IPCC in their Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).”
What implications?“In summary, the claims in the addendum are correct (and in line with cherry-picked statements in IPCC AR6 and in selected publications), but they are presented in a way that does not give the full picture. Especially considering that typical readers of EPJP journal are not climate experts, I think editors should seriously consider the implications of the possible publication of this addendum.”
Reviewer 4 wrote:“The original article is a straightforward recitation of credible, key data about several types of extreme weather events. I find nothing selective, biased, or misleading in what they present. While there’s hardly anything written that isn’t well-known to experts, it’s useful for non-experts to see the underlying data, which are most often obscure in the IPCC reports. . .
The addendum is an on-point discussion of the extent to which the original paper agrees with the IPCC on three types of extremes. The document is up to professional standards -specific, detailed, and with citations.”
Fabroni invited a fifth person to serve as an “Adjudicator” of the reviews of the Addendum and revised Addendum. Apparently the Adjudicator was provided only the reviews of Reviewer 1 and 2.“The most important contribution of the authors is to look further back into the climate record (including early 20th century), when many types of extreme events were comparable to today. The paper doesn't specifically focus on the attribution (cause) of any trend (or lack thereof).
I don't see any grounds for criticizing this work. Further, most of their conclusions are supported by the IPCC AR6 WG1.”
The Adjudicator focused primarily on the original paper, despite not having been invited to discuss that paper, and concluded with a recommendation to retract the original paper.:“This is a challenging task, as I do not think that the original manuscript meets the standards required by a scientific publication. . . While I have not be asked to comment on the original paper, I would strongly recommend to re-assess the review process of this paper.”
The editor, Fabroni, than emailed the handling editor, Onega, the following on 13 July 2023 notifying him of the journal’s and Springer Nature’s decision to retract the original paper:“I agree with referee 1 that the addendum does not meet the scientific standards that would allow for publication. Furthermore, I recommend retraction of the original manuscript.”
A retraction based not on any claims of scientific misconduct, but simple disagreement.The adjudicator report – from a leading expert in the field – leaves no other choice but to reject the Addendum altogether under these circumstances.
The failure of the Addendum to mend the problems with the original article as shown by this in-depth post publication review, necessarily re-opens the question of the fate of the original article. After an in-depth consultation with the publishers (copied here) we came to the conclusion that a retraction is inevitable, a decision fully backed by the publishers.
That is you staying in your lane. Well done. Stick to posting cartoons. And well done to Sunshine too for helping you out with his/her obligatory "like".