Climate and Weather

Hüsker Dü said:
Importantly, we found that Oceanside's one of the highest rates of motor vehicle theft in the nation according to our analysis of FBI crime data.

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/oceanside/crime
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Are you surprised by that? How else are illegals gonna get past Camp Pendleton without getting killed. Better to steal a car in Oceanside and take your chances at the San ONofre station then to have some Marine Forces open fire on your dumb ass. Nice job Rat Patrol.
 
Bruddah IZ said:
Are you surprised by that? How else are illegals gonna get past Camp Pendleton without getting killed. Better to steal a car in Oceanside and take your chances at the San ONofre station then to have some Marine Forces open fire on your dumb ass. Nice job Rat Patrol.
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You don't have to thank me.
 
Ricky Fandango said:
Cooling.
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I agree with E its just coming off the 2016 El Nino maximum. But lets crank it through as a trend. You know, just in case we're transitioning from one forcing regime into a new cooling cycle. That sort of idea. And if it's a trend let's see what sort of legs you're willing to give it. Because it gets pretty grim pretty quick.

To put numbers on it each data point in the 2016 cycle is connected to the corresponding point in the following cycle. That defines 11 corresponding sets of points we can pair up using as many points as possible since the the beginning of the thread. The average of those 11 slopes is ~-0.25°C/yr. Given what we have to work with your trend can only be projected as a constant linear forcing variable. So we'll call that Fandango's coefficient.

slopes.jpg
 
Now let's give Fandango's coefficient some legs. Here's how it plays out on a four year time frame. Blue curve is the forcing term I've been using in the TRWAP graphs. Red curve is what would be expected if there was no forcing since the beginning of the historical record. Green curve is transitioning into the forcing regime projected from your trend. Purple are available data points.

year.jpg
 
Ricky Fandango said:
perfect.
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Wait. Am I on LSD? I'm hallucinating that a couple of yokels on a kids' soccer blog are taking themselves quite seriously in "modeling" their own climate change studies. This is too good. Hey fellas, create fission energy while you're at it! Are you in dress-up while you do this? Do you have little toy Nobel prizes to give each other?
 
xav10 said:
Wait. Am I on LSD? I'm hallucinating that a couple of yokels on a kids' soccer blog are taking themselves quite seriously in "modeling" their own climate change studies. This is too good. Hey fellas, create fission energy while you're at it! Are you in dress-up while you do this? Do you have little toy Nobel prizes to give each other?
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EG did all the work, and its a neat little mirror image thumbnail of the big picture.
Im just a plumber who denies the science.

He gets the prize. (I have no idea if you're on LSD or not, but wouldnt surprise me either way)
 
Ricky Fandango said:
Actually, you agree with me as well.
Your exercise was started with the thread, and my observation is related specifically to that.
"Since the beginning of the thread", what we see so far, is cooling.
Thats all.

Your follow ups are excellent examples of what happens with modeling future climate patterns off of a short term data set.
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Except that one is from running models based on good science, demonstrable mathematics, and best available data, and the other is because it's what my twitter master told me to do.
 
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