So, I seen something interesting the other day on another site and was hoping someone would talk about it here. Word on the street was US soccer was going to go to a tier program like across the pond at the pro level and that's why we have been seeing so many clubs buying out and merging together. In the next few years top leagues will no longer be handing out tags you would have to win to move up or bottom two teams in each league would be dropped to lower tier. Girls side (ECNL-->RL-->GA-->DPL/E64-->NPL-->F1-->etc.) the up side they argued was "players would stay more committed to their teams" also "easier recruiting process for national/ collage teams". Not sure if this holds any truth but has anyone else heard of this? I think its a great idea.
Unlikely to happen on the MLS (boys) side for the following reasons:
1. The MLS League itself would need to go to pro rel and that's not going to happen. Too much money to be risked with Rel (see the LA Galaxy which went from the championship team to not even being able to win a single game season to season). You'd have to blow up the salary caps which would topple the finances of most of the system collapsing their giant pyramid scheme. And that financial hit would be severe for clubs which are overvalued right now.
A report showing 19 MLS teams within the world's 50 most valuable soccer clubs may reinforce MLS' thinking and make it harder for USL to draw investment.
www.forbes.com
2. The league control whether they pro rel not US Soccer. They couldn't even force MLSN to switch back from birth year to calendar year so the "you can switch if you want" is actually a step in the wrong direction for a unified policy.
3. MLSN exists for one purpose (well two). 1) at the younger levels as a recruiting ground for the MLS academies by concentrating top talent all in one place (Mexico for example casts a very wide net and has scouts at freaking Latino league games in the US), and 2) as cannon fodder for the MLS academy teams (hence why no HS...it's not because of the training but because there's no national high school soccer season and they can't have the academies without scrimmage partners for part of the year). The academies aren't going to be subject to rel.
4. Indeed MLSN is moving in the opposite direction with their stat trackers for U13 and U14 trying to get away from winning and focusing on developmental results. MLS2 was also largely driven as a way for the MLSN teams to more fluidly control their second tiers and allow players to play down. Reason why is the powers that be don't see how you can force coaches from taking short cuts which in soccer cuts against development if they are chasing wins (no build from the back, put the ball over the top into a footrace with the defender, kick it over the GK's head, recruit near the age line, recruit players rather than develop them).
5. The focus with MLS2 seems on moving towards a system where players get pro/rel instead of a club, with MLSN clubs controlling multiple tiers each with a place for players to play. Let's say Albion LA MLSN gets relegated to MLS2...they now either have 2 MLSN2 teams or are forced to relegate the MLS2 as well, a move which likely blows up not just 1 team but 2.
6. We're not having buys outs because of pro rel. We're having them because the smaller clubs (locked out of higher leagues) are having a really hard time of it. For example, just found out my kid's first team (an AYSO United team) and winner of a ton of state cups just folded with most of the players moving over to an MLS2 club next door. They either make satellite deals (so they can advertise access to these higher pathways) or take the buy out. Some of the larger nationwide mega clubs are being driven by dumb VC money. E64 seems pretty much finished BTW.
I can see it happening in ECNL. The MLSN has always been more of a "build it they will come" model while ECNL on the boys side wouldn't let the Eagles have it despite (prior to the arrival of MLS2) it was in the prime area for expansion (players in the area either had to go up to Ventura or drive to Santa Monica to play higher letter league). The long term issue for ECNL is eventually we will have a girl's academy system due to what's happening with the USWNT. IF that happens and ECNL doesn't control it, ECNL is done (hence the hedges against it to make them more college oriented such as by going birth year)
