Blues COVID email

[notintheface]

Please bring on the critique of these links, because other than the emotional argument, that's all you got.

From your very first link:

"Between March 1, 2020, and April 25, 2020, a total of 505 059 deaths were reported in the US; 87 001 (95% CI, 86 578-87 423) were excess deaths, of which 56 246 (65%) were attributed to COVID-19. In 14 states, more than 50% of excess deaths were attributed to underlying causes other than COVID-19; these included California (55% of excess deaths) and Texas (64% of excess deaths) (Table). The 5 states with the most COVID-19 deaths experienced large proportional increases in deaths due to nonrespiratory underlying causes, including diabetes (96%), heart diseases (89%), Alzheimer disease (64%), and cerebrovascular diseases (35%) (Figure). New York City experienced the largest increases in nonrespiratory deaths, notably those due to heart disease (398%) and diabetes (356%)."

Let's say, hypothetically, that we "open everything up". Now you're dealing with an excess of Covid related deaths, but now you still aren't going to shrink those heart disease and diabetes numbers as much as you want because the public perception is that it isn't safe to go to the hospital and opening things up doesn't necessarily change that. People who need to get checked out for blood pressure etc aren't going to their doctors right now and likely won't until we get the virus under control.

That's the key-- if you get the virus under control, with no community spread, then fantastic, I will be first in line to go see Tenet in a theater, I will be first in line to reschedule my dentist appointment, I will be first in line to do all of those things that we've missed over the past six months. But we know that the virus is still out there, we know it's still a risk-- even if the risk to me is small-- and we know there's still no guaranteed therepeutics or vaccine coming soon. That alone should be enough to slow down the "open it up!!!!1!!!" crew.

 

[Grace T.]

From your very first link:



Let's say, hypothetically, that we "open everything up". Now you're dealing with an excess of Covid related deaths, but now you still aren't going to shrink those heart disease and diabetes numbers as much as you want because the public perception is that it isn't safe to go to the hospital and opening things up doesn't necessarily change that. People who need to get checked out for blood pressure etc aren't going to their doctors right now and likely won't until we get the virus under control.

That's the key-- if you get the virus under control, with no community spread, then fantastic, I will be first in line to go see Tenet in a theater, I will be first in line to reschedule my dentist appointment, I will be first in line to do all of those things that we've missed over the past six months. But we know that the virus is still out there, we know it's still a risk-- even if the risk to me is small-- and we know there's still no guaranteed therepeutics or vaccine coming soon. That alone should be enough to slow down the "open it up!!!!1!!!" crew.

You won't go to the dentist for a year, possibly a year and a half (unless presumably you have to by cracking a tooth or a cavity or some other unfortunate event)? And presumably once people start to get vaccinated, the dentists will be full then for a while with old people coming out from their residences? I've been in and out of the hospital for tests the last several weeks....I'll admit its somewhat nerve wracking...but to not go to the dentist for over a year because you are afraid of the thing seems a bit much. Granted, don't know you....you might be in a high risk category so would make sense....my folks aren't going to the dentist either.

 

[watfly]

From your very first link:



Let's say, hypothetically, that we "open everything up". Now you're dealing with an excess of Covid related deaths, but now you still aren't going to shrink those heart disease and diabetes numbers as much as you want because the public perception is that it isn't safe to go to the hospital and opening things up doesn't necessarily change that. People who need to get checked out for blood pressure etc aren't going to their doctors right now and likely won't until we get the virus under control.

That's the key-- if you get the virus under control, with no community spread, then fantastic, I will be first in line to go see Tenet in a theater, I will be first in line to reschedule my dentist appointment, I will be first in line to do all of those things that we've missed over the past six months. But we know that the virus is still out there, we know it's still a risk-- even if the risk to me is small-- and we know there's still no guaranteed therepeutics or vaccine coming soon. That alone should be enough to slow down the "open it up!!!!1!!!" crew.

Again emotional appeal, with no factual basis. And again please don't mischaracterize what I'm saying. I'm not proposing an all or nothing approach to Covid, I'm proposing a targeted approach. Plus its not public perception that its not safe to go to hospitals. That's your fear that your are trying to project on to everyone else. Plus you can't fix stupid, if you're avoiding medical treatment because you're afraid of Covid, then you're stupid.

 

[notintheface]

Zero if possible. But it isn't. But you would also have to consider how many deaths occur because the economy isn't open. What would be a good number for you?

COVID-related hunger could kill more people than the virus | UN Global Compact

unglobalcompact.org

12,000 people could die each day from hunger linked to COVID-19

Mass unemployment, disruption to food production and supplies, and declining aid are behind the growing hunger numbers.

www.oxfamamerica.org

U.N. Warns Number Of People Starving To Death Could Double Amid Pandemic

Some 700 million of the world's most vulnerable people will require food assistance, according to the U.N. humanitarian office, which is asking wealthy nations to commit $90 billion in aid.

www.npr.org

These three links confer a link between "opening the economy" (eg having a job) and being able to eat. We have the means to get the money to people for food in such a way that doesn't require a bartender with asthma to put her life on the line. Let's try that first.

 

[NorCalDad]

As they point out:

"The testing here did not account for real-world scenarios where the leakage around the edges of the face cover may significantly impact the actual effectiveness of these coverings."

Right, but nowhere do they say that filtration efficiency goes to zero as a result.

There is more though:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

 

[notintheface]

You won't go to the dentist for a year, possibly a year and a half (unless presumably you have to by cracking a tooth or a cavity or some other unfortunate event)? And presumably once people start to get vaccinated, the dentists will be full then for a while with old people coming out from their residences? I've been in and out of the hospital for tests the last several weeks....I'll admit its somewhat nerve wracking...but to not go to the dentist for over a year because you are afraid of the thing seems a bit much. Granted, don't know you....you might be in a high risk category so would make sense....my folks aren't going to the dentist either.

You just cherrypicked the exact wrong thing from my post-- my point is that for the people who are dying of heart disease, diabetes, etc, the perception -- like you just wrote -- is that going to the clinic for tests is risky. That risk doesn't go away until we get ahold of the virus. "Open everything up!!!" does nothing to get community spread under control, therefore people will continue to die of heart attacks etc when they shouldn't until we're past the virus.

 

[notintheface]

Plus its not public perception that its not safe to go to hospitals. That's your fear that your are trying to project on to everyone else.

I've been in and out of the hospital for tests the last several weeks....I'll admit its somewhat nerve wracking...

Look, I truly do believe that Grace T is a little more -- let's say "adventurous" -- than your average person. Do you really believe that there aren't people postponing routine checkups because of this?

 

[Grace T.]

You just cherrypicked the exact wrong thing from my post-- my point is that for the people who are dying of heart disease, diabetes, etc, the perception -- like you just wrote -- is that going to the clinic for tests is risky. That risk doesn't go away until we get ahold of the virus. "Open everything up!!!" does nothing to get community spread under control, therefore people will continue to die of heart attacks etc when they shouldn't until we're past the virus.

Well, if your point is that there's fear, cool....agree. But that fear is largely irrational, particularly for the under 50 set, real if exaggerated for the 50-65 set. If you are under 65 and healthy, I get why you'd be nervous, but not going to the dentist for a year and a half and then taking a slot an old person might very well need when they come out of hiding isn't great either.

 

[notintheface]

Well, if your point is that there's fear, cool....agree. But that fear is largely irrational, particularly for the under 50 set, real if exaggerated for the 50-65 set. If you are under 65 and healthy, I get why you'd be nervous, but not going to the dentist for a year and a half and then taking a slot an old person might very well need when they come out of hiding isn't great either.

I 100% agree that the risk may be low and for people under 50 the odds are slim. 100% agree. It is the uncertainty that is causing people to be gun shy. Headlines of a 28-year-old nurse dying of Covid are justifiably giving people the jitters. Maybe this is like Shark Week, who knows, but I absolutely believe that until we have proven out that community spread is nearly gone, we shouldn't even be having the argument.

 

[Grace T.]

Look, I truly do believe that Grace T is a little more -- let's say "adventurous" -- than your average person. Do you really believe that there aren't people postponing routine checkups because of this?

Yes there are people postponing. If it's a routine checkup hey I'd postpone. But if it's something you need to do, the question is whether its rational

I had to reschedule my son's dentist visit because it conflicted with the after-school program on campus. I keep having to reschedule their appointments by they either conflict with my own or their school schedules right now are so wonky. I couldn't get an appointment for a month. I asked the receptionist if people were avoiding checkups. She said the older groups definitely are but otherwise they are busy and couldn't get in me sooner.

If you are fit and healthy and aren't old, do an old person a favor and go get your dental work done.

 

[espola]

What is your number of acceptable deaths with Covid? The emotional false choice when you can only see thing through the eyes of Covid.

In California, a study showed that 55% of the excess deaths during a two month period of the pandemic are from other causes other than Covid. In Texas 64% of excess deaths are non-Covid. Nationwide the estimate is 65% Covid 35% non-Covid although 14 states had a higher percentage of non-Covid deaths. Mental health, lack of treatment, starvation and even still births are just a few of the negative impacts. The deaths from these causes due to the lockdowns are not only happening now, but will continue in the long term, far outlasting the virus. So it wouldn't be surprising to see non-Covid deaths from the lockdown surpass deaths with Covid.

Should we ignore Covid and rip the band-aid off? No, we should still protect the vulnerable without exposing the entire population to the non-Covid risks which are far greater than the Covid risks. We've flattened the Covid curve, know its time to flatten the non-Covid curve.

Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes, March-April 2020

This study uses data from the National Center for Health Statistics to estimate excess deaths (ie, the difference between observed and expected deaths) in the US and the District of Columbia in the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic.

jamanetwork.com

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates

Summary. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has profound psychological and social effects. The psych

academic.oup.com

Pandemic’s effect on already rising suicide rates heightens worry - Roll Call

Economic and social pressures this year have heightened the risks, feeding consternation among experts, health officials and lawmakers.

www.rollcall.com

What is behind the increase of non-Covid related deaths?

The latest data on weekly deaths in England and Wales, published today by the Office of National Statistics, show what could be the beginning of a disturbing trend. From mid-June to mid-July, the number of excess deaths has been running at below the five-year average. But for the second week...

www.spectator.co.uk

Stillbirth rate rises dramatically during pandemic

Researchers stress need for antenatal care, as emerging data link disrupted pregnancy services to increase in stillbirths.

www.nature.com

Please bring on the critique of these links, because other than the emotional argument, that's all you got.

Before I respond, let me ask how you came across this esoteric collection - some light reading in your spare time?

 

[espola]

Look, I truly do believe that Grace T is a little more -- let's say "adventurous" -- than your average person. Do you really believe that there aren't people postponing routine checkups because of this?

It looks to me like she is hoping for justification for what she fears others will see as an unwise act.

 

[Desert Hound]

Headlines of a 28-year-old nurse dying of Covid are justifiably giving people the jitters.

Um no they don't justify it. That is fact free emotional jitters. The data plainly says otherwise.

Lets go to the CDC and see what their latest IFR (infection fatality rate) is and see if a 28yr old dying should give anyone the jitters.

IFR
0-19 yrs of age. 0.003% chance of dying. Or put another way. A survival rate of 99.997%
So lets stop running around pretending our kids are at risk at school, the beach, playing sports, etc.

20-49 yrs of age. 0.02% chance of dying. Or put another way. A survival rate of 99.98%

50-69 yrs of age. 0.5% chance of dying. Or put another way. A survival rate of 99.5%
In this age group the difference is towards the older end of this age range. How do we know that? Because various states show the age breakdowns in smaller segments.

70+ yrs of age. 5.4% chance of dying. Or put another way. A survival rate of 94.6%
This is your at risk population. And we know a substantial percentage of people in this age group who have died are in nursing homes, etc.

The data says only a small percentage of the population has any real risk. Our kids don't have any risk. Nor does college age kids. And yet many pretend they do.

Here is the CDC link where you can see the exact same numbers as I just posted.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

 

[watfly]

Look, I truly do believe that Grace T is a little more -- let's say "adventurous" -- than your average person. Do you really believe that there aren't people postponing routine checkups because of this?

I can't really add too much more to Grace T's response, other to say that yes I'm sure there are people out there that have postponed checkups or even treatment by their own choice (the 1st couple months many hospitals were postponing "non-elective", although very serious treatments, like chemotherapy.) Again that's the danger of overreacting to Covid and is caused directly by fear mongering. It makes no sense to avoid treatment for a condition you actually have, in fear of a virus you have a low percentage of getting (particularly if your following proper protocols). That seems to be the very definition of irrational fear.

 

[watfly]

It looks to me like she is hoping for justification for what she fears others will see as an unwise act.

I'm guessing GraceT doesn't give a shit about trying to justify her medical treatment to a bunch of us knuckleheads.

(Sorry for rapid fire posting, but I'm eating lunch and this is entertaining).

 

[paytoplay]

Wally Wally Wally!!! Channel 56 in OC baby. I watched that guy late at night and he was a funny and weird dude and his studio audience was full of young crazy ass teenagers from the OC!!! Talk about Hot Seat with Wally!!!

You know what Crush? You are OUT OF HERE!!

 

[espola]

I'm guessing GraceT doesn't give a shit about trying to justify her medical treatment to a bunch of us knuckleheads.

(Sorry for rapid fire posting, but I'm eating lunch and this is entertaining).

Medical treatment? I was referring to her out-of-state trips so her kids could evade the California shutdown. Or do I have the wrong person here?

 

[espola]

You know what Crush? You are OUT OF HERE!!

I added him to the ignore pile after reading the first sentence.

 

[watfly]

Medical treatment? I was referring to her out-of-state trips so her kids could evade the California shutdown. Or do I have the wrong person here?

My bad. Please insert "out of state travel" where I said "medical treatment".

 

[thelonggame]

12 days old....

Tracking the Coronavirus at U.S. Colleges and Universities (Published 2021)

College campuses, like the rest of the country, are enduring a coronavirus surge.

www.nytimes.com

88k cases...60 deaths, most in the spring, and most were school employees, not students per the article. That’s a very, low rate if you do simple math. Kids doing stupid things, being kids, parties, gatherings etc. Not minimizing this. Just pointing it out.

I don’t think anybody denies it is contagious and deadly for some. As far as school goes for K-12...If your kid gets it...numbers say they will most likely be fine. I can tell you it has been the healthiest our family has been during this time. Parents are not sending sick kids to school spreading stuff around, and they should implement similar health protocols, temp checks going forward even after the Covid subsides in both schools and work places.

I certainly would not want you making health choices and decisions for my family. I’m sure you feel the same. We asses risk and the situation differently. I respect your perspective, just don’t agree with it. Good luck.

Since this response yesterday I have been told by a few people that they have Covid. One is a colleague who was scared to even tell me he may have been exposed and worried he had infected others. Other infected were players on my daughter's soccer team. So, your response is timely. You absolutely have the right to assess risk differently than me. You have the right to send a letter to any government official telling them they're wrong or go on a bulletin board and tell everyone how you live, that there are guidelines out there but you're not following them and that your family is doing great and you believe in Santa Claus. You also have the right to complain about wearing a seatbelt, obeying traffic laws, paying taxes, getting pissed off at your employer because he makes you come to the office by 9 am. But you also have the right to give a shit about other people and gut check how you are rationalizing your actions in this pandemic. The girls on the team will probably be fine. I have no idea how they're doing, it's not right for me to ask since I'm not supposed to know since, you know, Covid is not real and Facui is going to hide his head in the sand after he wins the Nobel Prize. But since you know everything, the girls on the team have parents I know, and they're not young and healthy, but I can't reach out to them and ask them if they're ok or bring them flowers or dinner if they're not ok, because, you know, Covid is not real and I'm not supposed to know. These people are in the target risk group and if they get it, they will likely not be ok. So while I definitely don't want you to be giving me or anyone advice on how I should live, because your attitude is to care about yourself and not others beyond your household, you should take a second to listen to the government, not the guy in charge who says it's fake news, but the scientists who know more about it than you, know more about the data, know more about what could actually happen. And more than anything, stop fucking telling people that you know how to read data. Data doesn't show how many people are on venilators and may be scarred for life from this thing. Don't fucking tell people you know anything unless you're a scientist that studies this stuff. You don't fucking know, but because of the guy in charge, they listen to stuff that you say because it goes with the live free or die mentality has us now at the lowest point in American history.

 

[chiefs]

Since this response yesterday I have been told by a few people that they have Covid. One is a colleague who was scared to even tell me he may have been exposed and worried he had infected others. Other infected were players on my daughter's soccer team. So, your response is timely. You absolutely have the right to assess risk differently than me. You have the right to send a letter to any government official telling them they're wrong or go on a bulletin board and tell everyone how you live, that there are guidelines out there but you're not following them and that your family is doing great and you believe in Santa Claus. You also have the right to complain about wearing a seatbelt, obeying traffic laws, paying taxes, getting pissed off at your employer because he makes you come to the office by 9 am. But you also have the right to give a shit about other people and gut check how you are rationalizing your actions in this pandemic. The girls on the team will probably be fine. I have no idea how they're doing, it's not right for me to ask since I'm not supposed to know since, you know, Covid is not real and Facui is going to hide his head in the sand after he wins the Nobel Prize. But since you know everything, the girls on the team have parents I know, and they're not young and healthy, but I can't reach out to them and ask them if they're ok or bring them flowers or dinner if they're not ok, because, you know, Covid is not real and I'm not supposed to know. These people are in the target risk group and if they get it, they will likely not be ok. So while I definitely don't want you to be giving me or anyone advice on how I should live, because your attitude is to care about yourself and not others beyond your household, you should take a second to listen to the government, not the guy in charge who says it's fake news, but the scientists who know more about it than you, know more about the data, know more about what could actually happen. And more than anything, stop fucking telling people that you know how to read data. Data doesn't show how many people are on venilators and may be scarred for life from this thing. Don't fucking tell people you know anything unless you're a scientist that studies this stuff. You don't fucking know, but because of the guy in charge, they listen to stuff that you say because it goes with the live free or die mentality has us now at the lowest point in American history.

Go get help.