SOCCerJunKIE
BRONZE
Interesting stats so far? Strikers and TFA top teams with Strikers Goal Allowed per Game is pretty impressive
2006 DA
- Thread starter Zvezdas
- Start date
Kante
PREMIER
yup, it's too bad LAFC didn't play the Strikers at the showcase. Would have been an interesting match.
Kante
PREMIER
Usually would post something like this in the Soccer Nerd thread - https://www.socalsoccer.com/threads/going-full-soccer-academy-nerd.17391/page-2#post-297541 - but today is different. Today, the USMNT is playing Canada in the second leg of the Nations Cup. Coverage for the USMNT vs Canada starts at 4pm pst on ESPN2, Unimas and TUDN.
Why does it matter?
The stakes are high for the match this evening in a way they haven't been for the USMNT since last WC qualifying, and we all know how that went.
Because of new FIFA rules, Canada must win today to have a 100% shot at qualifying for the 2022 WC. Last match, they beat the US 2-0 with the best Canadian team - and best Canadian coach - in a generation. Worse, the US looked really bad in the loss, and most thought the 0-2 scoreline was generous to the US. If Canada draws, they have 50/50 shot at getting a chance to qualify for the WC and if they lose, there's only a small possibility.
On the flip side, after the 0-2 loss, the USMNT coach, Greg Berhalter - went on the public record as saying the second US v Canada match was a " must win." US Soccer GM Earnie Stewart this week walked that statement back a bit, saying one result would not determine the fate of Berhalter but...
For background, here's one the best articles on the current state of the USMNT is below. Here's the article - https://theathletic.com/1379646/2019/11/15/no-country-for-usmnt-fans/
(One point that is missed a bit - is that at the youth level - the window for the kids is small, and waiting out the US Soccer dysfunction, the way one might wait out a pro sports team's run of poor performance, is not really an option imo.)
View attachment 5638
Why does it matter?
The stakes are high for the match this evening in a way they haven't been for the USMNT since last WC qualifying, and we all know how that went.
Because of new FIFA rules, Canada must win today to have a 100% shot at qualifying for the 2022 WC. Last match, they beat the US 2-0 with the best Canadian team - and best Canadian coach - in a generation. Worse, the US looked really bad in the loss, and most thought the 0-2 scoreline was generous to the US. If Canada draws, they have 50/50 shot at getting a chance to qualify for the WC and if they lose, there's only a small possibility.
On the flip side, after the 0-2 loss, the USMNT coach, Greg Berhalter - went on the public record as saying the second US v Canada match was a " must win." US Soccer GM Earnie Stewart this week walked that statement back a bit, saying one result would not determine the fate of Berhalter but...
For background, here's one the best articles on the current state of the USMNT is below. Here's the article - https://theathletic.com/1379646/2019/11/15/no-country-for-usmnt-fans/
(One point that is missed a bit - is that at the youth level - the window for the kids is small, and waiting out the US Soccer dysfunction, the way one might wait out a pro sports team's run of poor performance, is not really an option imo.)
View attachment 5638
I fully agree, it would be nice if the top southern teams played the top northern teams more often. It would be beneficial for all players and the regional talent!
I usually agree with your predictions but TFA 2-1 to legends? I think you are way off
Kante
PREMIER
yup, the da cup matches facilitating games btw like teams from different regions from u15+have been solid. USSDA didn't roll it out as well as they could have, i.e. didn't tell anyone ahead of time, but overall the concept is solid.
Legit_play
SILVER
TFA 4-0 Legends, match was pretty one-sided.
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts vs actuals for this last weekend (11/16). home teams are listed first. ordered alpha by home team.
Los Angeles
predict: FC Golden State 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
predict: LAFC 6 - Santa Barbara SC 0 actuals: LAFC 2 - Santa Barbara SC 1
note: WHAT ... ???
The last time these two teams played at the end of the 2018-19 season, it was 8-0 LAFC and LAFC rostered 10 07s for that match.
So what happened? Here's the breakdown (apologies for the length of the comments but there's a lot going on here):
1) Bigger picture. LAFC, in general, is starting to come back to earth, from the 07s all the way up to the 04s.
When they first premiered in 2017-18 as u13s and u14s, the 05 and 04 LAFC teams set an incredibly high standard. The LAFC 05s went undefeated that season, outscoring opposition by some ridiculous margin like 100 to 12 (don't remember exactly what it was but 100 to 12 is close...) in the 2017-18 season and then going on to win the Concacaf club championship in August 2018. The 04s were not quite as dominant but close, and ended up in the USSDA u15 final last year, losing in the last ten minutes to Toronto after taking an early lead.
a) A significant %, not all, but a significant %, of the LAFC advantage had/has to do with bigger/faster/stronger due to a combination of early developers and older players. At some point, though, everybody catches up...
exhibit A is how the 04s did w/ Toronto where they didn't have a size/speed advantage. Still really really good but not otherworldly...
exhibit B is how the 04s are doing playing u17 this year
b) the market adjusts... LA teams now know that, to compete w/ LAFC, they need size and much higher quality, and are adjusting their player rosters accordingly. not a great trend for SoCal soccer in the opinion of some because it has teams focusing exponentially more on near term size/speed advantages that will eventually even out, and reducing opportunity by younger, quality players. To be fair, this has always been an issue but the need to compete with LAFC teams has made the trend worse.
exhibit C - see the RSL and Barca reboots at the u15 level this year, LAG's reboot last year and FCG's adjustments both last year and this year.
c) the extremely high level that LAFC set w/ the 05s and 04s is just to hard to maintain over time. these are still kids after all.
exhibit D - in the 2018-19 season, about six weeks after the 05s won the Concacaf championship, the LAFC 05s/u14s lost 0-1 to Real SoCal, a team that would finish that year in the bottom third of the group standings. exhibit e - LAFC 04s offense consistently decline over time last season
d) LAFC players may be having a tough time maintaining intensity during matches vs lesser teams.
exhibit E - according to folks at the match vs Santa Barbara, LAFC players didn't have a lot of movement. from reports, it sounds like most of the game was an LAFC back bringing the ball up to the top of Santa Barbara's final third and then looking to slip an attacking player in. the handful of times when there was more LAFC movement led to goals. point being is that reports have LAFC looking a little lackadaisical vs Santa Barbara. This "lackadaisical" comment is similar to reports from the 05s match vs SD Surf (see below)...
2) Teams are adjusting tactics and style of play, and honestly, the shock and awe has worn off a bit.
exhibit F - SD Surf 05s - after their roster was starting roster was gutted this year, still came away with a 0-0 tie vs LAFC 05s this season by - according to in person accounts, bunkering and looking to counter, FCG's three teams at 07, 06, and 05 came away with an aggregate 2-3 results across three matches playing LAFC at home, and now Santa Barbara SC only loses 1-2, largely by putting nine players behind the ball/in their final third to defend and making LAFC play 6 v 9 and sometimes 7 v 10 for the vast majority of the game.
3) LAFC 06s are very good but may not actually, in fact, be Galacticos, at least not match in and match out.
exhibit G - here's a chart showing LAFC's offensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goal scoring as a % of average goals allowed by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is scoring +59% more goals than opponents typically allow (the blue arrow line), but, if you take out the matches against TFA (game #1 - LAFC's most competitive match of the year) and the match against RSC (game #6 - LAFC's best offensive performance of the year which happened after going down to RSC 0-2 early in the first half), LAFC only scores a much more pedestrian +9% more goals than opponents typically allow (the orange arrow line).
exhibit H - here's a chart showing LAFC defensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goals allowed as a % of average goals scored by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is now allowing about -25% more goals than opponents typically score (the blue arrow line). Not bad but not best in the nation by far, and the trend is clearly going in the wrong direction.
So short version on the match
, Santa Barbara bunkered, got a fortunate goal early and LAFC didn't seem to have the motivation and/or creativity to break down Santa Barbara's low block. This seems to be an issue across age groups, although that conclusion is based on a small data set.
Short version on the LAFC big picture: Despite publicly stated commitments last year to developing players for the first team and playing players up, LAFC, so far this season, doesn't seem to be keeping to that, to the detriment, ironically, of both results and player development.
For example, of the 56 players rostered on the 07, 06 and 05 teams (i.e. the players who could play up), only four have played up with an older age group so far this season.
Meanwhile the rest of the LA group is catching up...
predict: LA Galaxy 5 - Ventura Fusion 2 actuals: LA Galaxy 7 - Ventura Fusion 1
predict: LA Surf 0 - TFA 6 actuals: LA Surf 0 - TFA 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: LAUFA 1 - Legends 1 (edge to Legends) - actuals: LAUFA 2 - Legends 2
predict: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 0 - actuals: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 1
predict: TFA 2 - Legends 1 - actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
San Diego
predict: Albion 1 - San Diego SC 1 (edge to Albion) - actuals: Albion 4 - San Diego SC 1
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - LAGSD 2 - actuals: Murrieta Surf 6 - LAGSD 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: San Diego Surf 5 - OC Surf 0 - actuals: San Diego Surf 3 - OC Surf 0
predict: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 0 - actuals: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 1
Los Angeles
predict: FC Golden State 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
predict: LAFC 6 - Santa Barbara SC 0 actuals: LAFC 2 - Santa Barbara SC 1
note: WHAT ... ???
The last time these two teams played at the end of the 2018-19 season, it was 8-0 LAFC and LAFC rostered 10 07s for that match.
So what happened? Here's the breakdown (apologies for the length of the comments but there's a lot going on here):
1) Bigger picture. LAFC, in general, is starting to come back to earth, from the 07s all the way up to the 04s.
When they first premiered in 2017-18 as u13s and u14s, the 05 and 04 LAFC teams set an incredibly high standard. The LAFC 05s went undefeated that season, outscoring opposition by some ridiculous margin like 100 to 12 (don't remember exactly what it was but 100 to 12 is close...) in the 2017-18 season and then going on to win the Concacaf club championship in August 2018. The 04s were not quite as dominant but close, and ended up in the USSDA u15 final last year, losing in the last ten minutes to Toronto after taking an early lead.
a) A significant %, not all, but a significant %, of the LAFC advantage had/has to do with bigger/faster/stronger due to a combination of early developers and older players. At some point, though, everybody catches up...
exhibit A is how the 04s did w/ Toronto where they didn't have a size/speed advantage. Still really really good but not otherworldly...
exhibit B is how the 04s are doing playing u17 this year
b) the market adjusts... LA teams now know that, to compete w/ LAFC, they need size and much higher quality, and are adjusting their player rosters accordingly. not a great trend for SoCal soccer in the opinion of some because it has teams focusing exponentially more on near term size/speed advantages that will eventually even out, and reducing opportunity by younger, quality players. To be fair, this has always been an issue but the need to compete with LAFC teams has made the trend worse.
exhibit C - see the RSL and Barca reboots at the u15 level this year, LAG's reboot last year and FCG's adjustments both last year and this year.
c) the extremely high level that LAFC set w/ the 05s and 04s is just to hard to maintain over time. these are still kids after all.
exhibit D - in the 2018-19 season, about six weeks after the 05s won the Concacaf championship, the LAFC 05s/u14s lost 0-1 to Real SoCal, a team that would finish that year in the bottom third of the group standings. exhibit e - LAFC 04s offense consistently decline over time last season
d) LAFC players may be having a tough time maintaining intensity during matches vs lesser teams.
exhibit E - according to folks at the match vs Santa Barbara, LAFC players didn't have a lot of movement. from reports, it sounds like most of the game was an LAFC back bringing the ball up to the top of Santa Barbara's final third and then looking to slip an attacking player in. the handful of times when there was more LAFC movement led to goals. point being is that reports have LAFC looking a little lackadaisical vs Santa Barbara. This "lackadaisical" comment is similar to reports from the 05s match vs SD Surf (see below)...
2) Teams are adjusting tactics and style of play, and honestly, the shock and awe has worn off a bit.
exhibit F - SD Surf 05s - after their roster was starting roster was gutted this year, still came away with a 0-0 tie vs LAFC 05s this season by - according to in person accounts, bunkering and looking to counter, FCG's three teams at 07, 06, and 05 came away with an aggregate 2-3 results across three matches playing LAFC at home, and now Santa Barbara SC only loses 1-2, largely by putting nine players behind the ball/in their final third to defend and making LAFC play 6 v 9 and sometimes 7 v 10 for the vast majority of the game.
3) LAFC 06s are very good but may not actually, in fact, be Galacticos, at least not match in and match out.
exhibit G - here's a chart showing LAFC's offensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goal scoring as a % of average goals allowed by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is scoring +59% more goals than opponents typically allow (the blue arrow line), but, if you take out the matches against TFA (game #1 - LAFC's most competitive match of the year) and the match against RSC (game #6 - LAFC's best offensive performance of the year which happened after going down to RSC 0-2 early in the first half), LAFC only scores a much more pedestrian +9% more goals than opponents typically allow (the orange arrow line).
exhibit H - here's a chart showing LAFC defensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goals allowed as a % of average goals scored by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is now allowing about -25% more goals than opponents typically score (the blue arrow line). Not bad but not best in the nation by far, and the trend is clearly going in the wrong direction.
So short version on the match
, Santa Barbara bunkered, got a fortunate goal early and LAFC didn't seem to have the motivation and/or creativity to break down Santa Barbara's low block. This seems to be an issue across age groups, although that conclusion is based on a small data set.Short version on the LAFC big picture: Despite publicly stated commitments last year to developing players for the first team and playing players up, LAFC, so far this season, doesn't seem to be keeping to that, to the detriment, ironically, of both results and player development.
For example, of the 56 players rostered on the 07, 06 and 05 teams (i.e. the players who could play up), only four have played up with an older age group so far this season.
Meanwhile the rest of the LA group is catching up...
predict: LA Galaxy 5 - Ventura Fusion 2 actuals: LA Galaxy 7 - Ventura Fusion 1
predict: LA Surf 0 - TFA 6 actuals: LA Surf 0 - TFA 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: LAUFA 1 - Legends 1 (edge to Legends) - actuals: LAUFA 2 - Legends 2
predict: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 0 - actuals: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 1
predict: TFA 2 - Legends 1 - actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
San Diego
predict: Albion 1 - San Diego SC 1 (edge to Albion) - actuals: Albion 4 - San Diego SC 1
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - LAGSD 2 - actuals: Murrieta Surf 6 - LAGSD 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: San Diego Surf 5 - OC Surf 0 - actuals: San Diego Surf 3 - OC Surf 0
predict: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 0 - actuals: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 1
Legit_play
SILVER
The reply just above states TFA 4-0 Legends, pretty one-sided. Personally missed the TFA vs LA Surf match so, I can't comment on it.here's predicts vs actuals for this last weekend (11/16). home teams are listed first. ordered alpha by home team.
Los Angeles
predict: FC Golden State 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
predict: LAFC 6 - Santa Barbara SC 0 actuals: LAFC 2 - Santa Barbara SC 1
note: WHAT ... ???
The last time these two teams played at the end of the 2018-19 season, it was 8-0 LAFC and LAFC rostered 10 07s for that match.
So what happened? Here's the breakdown (apologies for the length of the comments but there's a lot going on here):
1) Bigger picture. LAFC, in general, is starting to come back to earth, from the 07s all the way up to the 04s.
When they first premiered in 2017-18 as u13s and u14s, the 05 and 04 LAFC teams set an incredibly high standard. The LAFC 05s went undefeated that season, outscoring opposition by some ridiculous margin like 100 to 12 (don't remember exactly what it was but 100 to 12 is close...) in the 2017-18 season and then going on to win the Concacaf club championship in August 2018. The 04s were not quite as dominant but close, and ended up in the USSDA u15 final last year, losing in the last ten minutes to Toronto after taking an early lead.
a) A significant %, not all, but a significant %, of the LAFC advantage had/has to do with bigger/faster/stronger due to a combination of early developers and older players. At some point, though, everybody catches up...
exhibit A is how the 04s did w/ Toronto where they didn't have a size/speed advantage. Still really really good but not otherworldly...
exhibit B is how the 04s are doing playing u17 this year
b) the market adjusts... LA teams now know that, to compete w/ LAFC, they need size and much higher quality, and are adjusting their player rosters accordingly. not a great trend for SoCal soccer in the opinion of some because it has teams focusing exponentially more on near term size/speed advantages that will eventually even out, and reducing opportunity by younger, quality players. To be fair, this has always been an issue but the need to compete with LAFC teams has made the trend worse.
exhibit C - see the RSL and Barca reboots at the u15 level this year, LAG's reboot last year and FCG's adjustments both last year and this year.
c) the extremely high level that LAFC set w/ the 05s and 04s is just to hard to maintain over time. these are still kids after all.
exhibit D - in the 2018-19 season, about six weeks after the 05s won the Concacaf championship, the LAFC 05s/u14s lost 0-1 to Real SoCal, a team that would finish that year in the bottom third of the group standings. exhibit e - LAFC 04s offense consistently decline over time last season
d) LAFC players may be having a tough time maintaining intensity during matches vs lesser teams.
exhibit E - according to folks at the match vs Santa Barbara, LAFC players didn't have a lot of movement. from reports, it sounds like most of the game was an LAFC back bringing the ball up to the top of Santa Barbara's final third and then looking to slip an attacking player in. the handful of times when there was more LAFC movement led to goals. point being is that reports have LAFC looking a little lackadaisical vs Santa Barbara. This "lackadaisical" comment is similar to reports from the 05s match vs SD Surf (see below)...
2) Teams are adjusting tactics and style of play, and honestly, the shock and awe has worn off a bit.
exhibit F - SD Surf 05s - after their roster was starting roster was gutted this year, still came away with a 0-0 tie vs LAFC 05s this season by - according to in person accounts, bunkering and looking to counter, FCG's three teams at 07, 06, and 05 came away with an aggregate 2-3 results across three matches playing LAFC at home, and now Santa Barbara SC only loses 1-2, largely by putting nine players behind the ball/in their final third to defend and making LAFC play 6 v 9 and sometimes 7 v 10 for the vast majority of the game.
3) LAFC 06s are very good but may not actually, in fact, be Galacticos, at least not match in and match out.
exhibit G - here's a chart showing LAFC's offensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goal scoring as a % of average goals allowed by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is scoring +59% more goals than opponents typically allow (the blue arrow line), but, if you take out the matches against TFA (game #1 - LAFC's most competitive match of the year) and the match against RSC (game #6 - LAFC's best offensive performance of the year which happened after going down to RSC 0-2 early in the first half), LAFC only scores a much more pedestrian +9% more goals than opponents typically allow (the orange arrow line).
View attachment 5678
exhibit H - here's a chart showing LAFC defensive performance over time against LA group opponents, with LAFC goals allowed as a % of average goals scored by opponents. across all matches, LAFC is now allowing about -25% more goals than opponents typically score (the blue arrow line). Not bad but not best in the nation by far, and the trend is clearly going in the wrong direction.
View attachment 5680
So short version on the match
Short version on the LAFC big picture: Despite publicly stated commitments last year to developing players for the first team and playing players up, LAFC, so far this season, doesn't seem to be keeping to that, to the detriment, ironically, of both results and player development.
For example, of the 56 players rostered on the 07, 06 and 05 teams (i.e. the players who could play up), only four have played up with an older age group so far this season.
Meanwhile the rest of the LA group is catching up...
predict: LA Galaxy 5 - Ventura Fusion 2 actuals: LA Galaxy 7 - Ventura Fusion 1
predict: LA Surf 0 - TFA 6 actuals: LA Surf 0 - TFA 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: LAUFA 1 - Legends 1 (edge to Legends) - actuals: LAUFA 2 - Legends 2
predict: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 0 - actuals: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 1
predict: TFA 2 - Legends 1 - actuals: pending - anyone have the score for this match?
San Diego
predict: Albion 1 - San Diego SC 1 (edge to Albion) - actuals: Albion 4 - San Diego SC 1
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - LAGSD 2 - actuals: Murrieta Surf 6 - LAGSD 2
note: interesting result. does anyone have insight or commentary?
predict: San Diego Surf 5 - OC Surf 0 - actuals: San Diego Surf 3 - OC Surf 0
predict: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 0 - actuals: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 1
Kante
PREMIER
got it. thx!
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts for this weekend (11/23). home team is listed first, and order is alpha by home team.
Los Angeles
LAUFA 1 - Real SoCal 2 - match to watch
note: interesting match here that most might write off. Given the two teams' current trends, the algo has this one a lot closer than most might think, given that LAUFA is in the standings basement and most think RSC 06s have the potential to be one the better LA group teams.
So, RSC has been underperforming their potential a bit so far this season. Will be interesting to see if they can turn the corner a bit with this match.
On the flip side, LAUFA has tended to show some pride when playing better teams, with a 0-0 tie vs the LA Galaxy and a 1-2 loss to TFA.
Short version is that there's lots of subtext on this one, with both teams having points to prove. Likely will be hard fought, fun to watch match.
LAFC 4 - Legends 1
Pateadores 1 - LA Galaxy 4
Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 0 - match to watch
note: first, it bears noting generally that this match is LA Surf's seventh away game is in its first eight matches of the season. at this age, the away vs home effect is very significant, and would assume that most would be aware of that. So, not sure what USSDA is doing, stacking the scheduling deck against LA Surf to start the 2019-20 season. To be fair, maybe there's something up with LA Surf's home field...
in any case, in LA Surf's one home game this season, LA Surf lost 0-2 vs #1 ranked TFA as opposed to losing 1-9 to TFA away in an earlier match. make of that what you will.. short version is LA Surf is not great away, and may or may not be a lot better at home.
second, Santa Barbara seems to be pushing to get out of the LA group standings basement which is what makes this match worth watching.
Statistically, Santa Barbara have a solid defense but this strongly driven by their recent results against RSC and LAFC. haven't had feedback on the RSC match, but it sounds like the Santa Barbara's defensive strategy vs LAFC was a little cynical. Against LA Surf, would think that Santa Barbara would go at them, rather than bunker. offensively, Santa Barbara is anemic with the worst average goals scored per game in the LA group, and their offensive trend line over time is decidedly going in the wrong direction.
This match is opportunity for Santa Barbara to maybe open things a bit, score some goals and continue a decent defensive trend line.
will see how it goes.
Ventura Fusion 0 - TFA 6
San Diego
Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 2 - match to watch
note: that the Strikers are not in TDS' top 25 national rankings is a travesty. at the showcase, Strikers lost 0-2 to #4 ranked SJ Quakes, and lost 0-1 to #1 ranked TFA. And the Strikers have one of the best D's in the country with shutouts in six of their last nine matches.
but, to be fair to TDS, teams got to beat the best to be the best.
Speaking of which, Murrieta is no slouch. Their offense is top three in the SD group and has been trending stronger, but frankly Murrieta gives up too many goals.
Net net, this match is opportunity for the Strikers offense to show what they got, and also a very good test for Murrieta's offense. Should be a fairly wide open and fun to watch.
OC Surf 0 - Arsenal 2
Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - Nomads 0
Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - LAGSD 1
SDSC 1 - Murrieta Surf 3
SC del Sol 0 - LAGSD 0 (edge: LAGSD)
SC del Sol 1 - Nomads 0
Los Angeles
LAUFA 1 - Real SoCal 2 - match to watch
note: interesting match here that most might write off. Given the two teams' current trends, the algo has this one a lot closer than most might think, given that LAUFA is in the standings basement and most think RSC 06s have the potential to be one the better LA group teams.
So, RSC has been underperforming their potential a bit so far this season. Will be interesting to see if they can turn the corner a bit with this match.
On the flip side, LAUFA has tended to show some pride when playing better teams, with a 0-0 tie vs the LA Galaxy and a 1-2 loss to TFA.
Short version is that there's lots of subtext on this one, with both teams having points to prove. Likely will be hard fought, fun to watch match.
LAFC 4 - Legends 1
Pateadores 1 - LA Galaxy 4
Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 0 - match to watch
note: first, it bears noting generally that this match is LA Surf's seventh away game is in its first eight matches of the season. at this age, the away vs home effect is very significant, and would assume that most would be aware of that. So, not sure what USSDA is doing, stacking the scheduling deck against LA Surf to start the 2019-20 season. To be fair, maybe there's something up with LA Surf's home field...
in any case, in LA Surf's one home game this season, LA Surf lost 0-2 vs #1 ranked TFA as opposed to losing 1-9 to TFA away in an earlier match. make of that what you will.. short version is LA Surf is not great away, and may or may not be a lot better at home.
second, Santa Barbara seems to be pushing to get out of the LA group standings basement which is what makes this match worth watching.
Statistically, Santa Barbara have a solid defense but this strongly driven by their recent results against RSC and LAFC. haven't had feedback on the RSC match, but it sounds like the Santa Barbara's defensive strategy vs LAFC was a little cynical. Against LA Surf, would think that Santa Barbara would go at them, rather than bunker. offensively, Santa Barbara is anemic with the worst average goals scored per game in the LA group, and their offensive trend line over time is decidedly going in the wrong direction.
This match is opportunity for Santa Barbara to maybe open things a bit, score some goals and continue a decent defensive trend line.
will see how it goes.
Ventura Fusion 0 - TFA 6
San Diego
Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 2 - match to watch
note: that the Strikers are not in TDS' top 25 national rankings is a travesty. at the showcase, Strikers lost 0-2 to #4 ranked SJ Quakes, and lost 0-1 to #1 ranked TFA. And the Strikers have one of the best D's in the country with shutouts in six of their last nine matches.
but, to be fair to TDS, teams got to beat the best to be the best.
Speaking of which, Murrieta is no slouch. Their offense is top three in the SD group and has been trending stronger, but frankly Murrieta gives up too many goals.
Net net, this match is opportunity for the Strikers offense to show what they got, and also a very good test for Murrieta's offense. Should be a fairly wide open and fun to watch.
OC Surf 0 - Arsenal 2
Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - Nomads 0
Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - LAGSD 1
SDSC 1 - Murrieta Surf 3
SC del Sol 0 - LAGSD 0 (edge: LAGSD)
SC del Sol 1 - Nomads 0
I suspect this has more to do with field availability on the LA Surf side. They're at the mercy of the La Canada football team.
Kante
PREMIER
got it. thx. bummer. the away games all in a row are tough.
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts vs actuals for this weekend (11/23). home team is listed first, and order is alpha by home team. Happy Turkey Day!
Los Angeles
predict: LAUFA 1 - Real SoCal 2 actuals: LAUFA 4- Real SoCal 3
note: interesting result. per game report, LAUFA was up 2-1 at ht, and seems like they stayed just ahead of RSC the whole game. LAUFA went up 3-1 at the 50th minute but RSC got close again with a goal at the 64th minute to make it 3-2 but LAUAF grabbed one last one at the 76th minute such that RSC's last minute goal didn't affect the outcome. Looks like a fun back and forth match to watch.
anyone have more insight/commentary?
predict: LAFC 4 - Legends 1 actuals: rescheduled
predict: Pateadores 1 - LA Galaxy 4 actuals: pending. anyone have score here
predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: Santa Barbara SC 0 - LA Surf 1
note: comment that Santa Barbara has a mostly solid defense. offensively, Santa Barbara is anemic with the worst average goals scored per game in the LA group, and their offensive trend line over time is decidedly going in the wrong direction.
anyone have more insight or commentary?
predict: Ventura Fusion 0 - TFA 6 actuals: Ventura Fusion 1- TFA 6
San Diego
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 2 actuals: Murrieta Surf 0 - Strikers 4
note: that the Strikers are not in TDS' top 25 national rankings is a travesty. at the showcase, Strikers lost 0-2 to #4 ranked SJ Quakes, and lost 0-1 to #1 ranked TFA.
And the Strikers have one of the best D's in the country with shutouts insix seven of their last nine ten matches.
note: per the game report, looks like it was tight in the first half. Both teams have an issue at the 26th minute-ish with Murrieta picking up 3 cards and strikers picking up one. Strikers were up 1-0 at ht, but scored three more to lock down the 4-0 win.
anyone have more insight or commentary?
predict: OC Surf 0 - Arsenal 2 actuals: OC Surf 5 - Arsenal 1
note: interesting result. anyone have more insight or commentary?
predict: Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - Nomads 0 actuals: Real Salt Lake AZ 6- Nomads 0
predict: Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - LAGSD 1 actuals: pending. anyone have score here?
predict: SDSC 1 - Murrieta Surf 3 actuals: SDSC 3 - Murrieta Surf 1
note: interesting result. anyone have more insight or commentary?
predict: SC del Sol 0 - LAGSD 0 (edge: LAGSD) actuals: SC del Sol 1 - LAGSD 1
predict: SC del Sol 1 - Nomads 0 actuals: SC del Sol 3 - Nomads 0
Los Angeles
predict: LAUFA 1 - Real SoCal 2 actuals: LAUFA 4- Real SoCal 3
note: interesting result. per game report, LAUFA was up 2-1 at ht, and seems like they stayed just ahead of RSC the whole game. LAUFA went up 3-1 at the 50th minute but RSC got close again with a goal at the 64th minute to make it 3-2 but LAUAF grabbed one last one at the 76th minute such that RSC's last minute goal didn't affect the outcome. Looks like a fun back and forth match to watch.
anyone have more insight/commentary?
predict: LAFC 4 - Legends 1 actuals: rescheduled
predict: Pateadores 1 - LA Galaxy 4 actuals: pending. anyone have score here
predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 0 actuals: Santa Barbara SC 0 - LA Surf 1
note: comment that Santa Barbara has a mostly solid defense. offensively, Santa Barbara is anemic with the worst average goals scored per game in the LA group, and their offensive trend line over time is decidedly going in the wrong direction.
anyone have more insight or commentary?
predict: Ventura Fusion 0 - TFA 6 actuals: Ventura Fusion 1- TFA 6
San Diego
predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 2 actuals: Murrieta Surf 0 - Strikers 4
note: that the Strikers are not in TDS' top 25 national rankings is a travesty. at the showcase, Strikers lost 0-2 to #4 ranked SJ Quakes, and lost 0-1 to #1 ranked TFA.
And the Strikers have one of the best D's in the country with shutouts in
note: per the game report, looks like it was tight in the first half. Both teams have an issue at the 26th minute-ish with Murrieta picking up 3 cards and strikers picking up one. Strikers were up 1-0 at ht, but scored three more to lock down the 4-0 win.
anyone have more insight or commentary?
predict: OC Surf 0 - Arsenal 2 actuals: OC Surf 5 - Arsenal 1
note: interesting result. anyone have more insight or commentary?
predict: Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - Nomads 0 actuals: Real Salt Lake AZ 6- Nomads 0
predict: Real Salt Lake AZ 3 - LAGSD 1 actuals: pending. anyone have score here?
predict: SDSC 1 - Murrieta Surf 3 actuals: SDSC 3 - Murrieta Surf 1
note: interesting result. anyone have more insight or commentary?
predict: SC del Sol 0 - LAGSD 0 (edge: LAGSD) actuals: SC del Sol 1 - LAGSD 1
predict: SC del Sol 1 - Nomads 0 actuals: SC del Sol 3 - Nomads 0
Real Salt Lake AZ 9 - LAGSD 2, RSL scored the first goal in 13 seconds, an offensive onslaught took place, RSL controlled the game and mainly played on one half of the field
Kante
PREMIER
here's standings as of last weekend. highlighted best offensive teams (top 5 in socal and top 3 in group) and best defensive teams (same). SoCal standings are presented first and group standings are presented second.
here's SoCal standings. Per results from the showcase, the LA u14 group is a bit stronger than the SD u14 group, with the LA teams collecting 10 wins, 7 draws and six losses vs SD teams with 28 goals scored by LA teams vs 19 goals allowed.
Here's group standings:
here's SoCal standings. Per results from the showcase, the LA u14 group is a bit stronger than the SD u14 group, with the LA teams collecting 10 wins, 7 draws and six losses vs SD teams with 28 goals scored by LA teams vs 19 goals allowed.
Here's group standings:
Kante.. what are your thoughts on this first half of the season and will TFA end up undefeated?
Kante
PREMIER
Will TFA end up undefeated? an interesting question... (will post thoughts on first half of season in a later post)
Let's be honest, it's impossible to predict.
Having said that, let's take a look and maybe there might be some insight that's better than just checking the magic eight ball (but maybe not...)
1) One of the biggest variables is that TFA has been consistently playing 06s up so far this season (a total of seven 06s have played at one least match with the TFA 05s)
Lots of reason for this (eg, the 05s after losing a significant number of players from last year need the help), but will give credit where credit is due. The TFA coaches have been giving these 06s an opportunity to play against bigger/better players to help their development i.e. "playing the kids."
(In contrast, LAFC, despite their academy director of coaching saying in an interview that "going into next year (i.e. 2019-20), put results a little bit on the back burner ..." LAFC has only played less than a handful of players across all their three younger teams - u13,u14, and u15 - up an age group so far this season)
So, looked at how 06 TFA players being rostered/not rostered with the u14s affects the TFA u14 team performance with some regression analysis. (unfortunately, can only tell from u14 game reports if a player is or is not rostered, not how many minutes they played or if they started, so making the best of the available data...)
here's what the data says:
- Offensively, DBA, JS and AM are big drivers on how well the u14 offense does, and they drive about 30% of the variation in offensive performance. TFA coaches seem to be aware of this and have only pulled one of these players at a time to play up w/ the 05s. (DBA missed the first match of the season against Ventura - when AM played 80 against LAGSD - due to suspension)
- Defensively, EC, LM and DV are big drivers on TFA u14 defensive performance, and account for a surprising 86% of the variation in how well the u14 TFA defense does. So far though, only DV has played more than one match up w/ the 05s, so it's a small data set to look at.
- An interesting point from the stats is that while DBA is a big contributor on offense, he's, statistically, a bit of a defensive liability. Conversely, LM and DV are rocks on defense, but, statistically, hold the offense back a bit.
2) TFA have played seven of their first 11 group matches at home, and enjoy a significant offensive home field advantage - when other variables are controlled for (eg, rostered players, point in the season etc) - that accounts for 30% of TFA's variation in offensive performance.
As TFA plays more away matches in 2020, they'll likely have some offensive challenges.
So far this year,
Defensively, TFA doesn't seem affected by home vs away.
3) TFA has a poor trend line offensively this season, even when controlling for rostered players
View attachment 5839
Could be lots of reason for this downward trend including the TFA coaches looking to focus in games on more passing, playing out of the back, getting better defensively (this one seems to be likely in the case of TFA) etc.
However, teams - when they're dominant in their group - tend to become overconfident/less focused.
TFA only needs to look to LAFC's 05 team in the 2018-19 season when, a month after winning the Concacaf 05 club title on top of an undefeated 2017-18 season with a ridiculous +114 goal differential over 26 games (includes 3 showcase matches), LAFC lost 0-1 to Real SoCal - after playing, by most accounts, a lackadaisical match.
It's hard for any team of adults to maintain focus and discipline over a long season (and 25-30 games over ten months is a long season), let alone 13-14 year old boys.
And if TFA has a goal of going undefeated this season, they're going to have turn this offensive trend line above around.
Defensively, TFA seems to be on solid ground. here's their defensive trend line so far this year:
___________
So those are the key variables.
But, to be clear, most folks will be looking to see if TFA can do what LAFC 05s did in 2017-18, which was not to simply go undefeated.
The LAFC 05s won every match they played that season, and won decisively.
The TFA 06s have their work cut out for them, but it will be fun to see if they can pull it off.
Attachments
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts for this weekend. only two matches in the LA group.
LA Surf 0 - Ventura Fusion 1
note: LA Surf, after a difficult start where they gave up 17 goals in their first three games, has seen consistent improvement defensively since. however, LA Surf's offense scores the 2nd fewest goals in SoCal.
on the flip side, Ventura's defense has given up the most goals per game in all of SoCal. But Ventura's offense is decent, averaging 2.45 goals per game.
Net net, algo has this one as a low scoring win for Ventura. However, LA Surf is playing at home for only the second time this season, and Ventura is about a 50% worse team playing away rather than playing home, so will see.
FC Golden State 0 - TFA 1 - match to watch (likely the best offense in the country playing against what the algo says is the best defense in the country)
note: received the question, "can TFA go undefeated this year?". short answer is yes, but.... this match against FCG this weekend will be a key test.
TFA should roster the full 06 team (TFA, to their credit, has been playing more 06s up w/ 05s than other team in SoCal so far this season), but they're playing away (TFA , controlling for other factors, is a significantly worse team playing away than at home) and TFA's offense - although averaging a SoCal leading 5.27 goals scored per game - has seen a steady decline since the beginning of the season.
meanwhile, FCG has aspirations to Tier status but hasn't quite been able to climb that ladder yet. FCG's defense is by far the best in SoCal, with three shutouts in their last five games (including a 0-0 tie against LAFC) and, not counting a horrible first match against LAG, has averaged only .71 goals allowed since that first game. However, FCG's offense is bottom of the barrel.
An interesting twist is which players will FCG play. FCG has a team roster of 36 players (about 2/3's are PT players - check a game report to see FCG's full contingent of players) but, per USSDA rules, can only roster a max of 18 for the game.
Last time these teams met it was a 2-0 result for TFA, but TFA was missing JS, who is a significant offensive contributor, and EC, who is a significant defensive contributor.
Should be a fun, high stakes match to watch.
LA Surf 0 - Ventura Fusion 1
note: LA Surf, after a difficult start where they gave up 17 goals in their first three games, has seen consistent improvement defensively since. however, LA Surf's offense scores the 2nd fewest goals in SoCal.
on the flip side, Ventura's defense has given up the most goals per game in all of SoCal. But Ventura's offense is decent, averaging 2.45 goals per game.
Net net, algo has this one as a low scoring win for Ventura. However, LA Surf is playing at home for only the second time this season, and Ventura is about a 50% worse team playing away rather than playing home, so will see.
FC Golden State 0 - TFA 1 - match to watch (likely the best offense in the country playing against what the algo says is the best defense in the country)
note: received the question, "can TFA go undefeated this year?". short answer is yes, but.... this match against FCG this weekend will be a key test.
TFA should roster the full 06 team (TFA, to their credit, has been playing more 06s up w/ 05s than other team in SoCal so far this season), but they're playing away (TFA , controlling for other factors, is a significantly worse team playing away than at home) and TFA's offense - although averaging a SoCal leading 5.27 goals scored per game - has seen a steady decline since the beginning of the season.
meanwhile, FCG has aspirations to Tier status but hasn't quite been able to climb that ladder yet. FCG's defense is by far the best in SoCal, with three shutouts in their last five games (including a 0-0 tie against LAFC) and, not counting a horrible first match against LAG, has averaged only .71 goals allowed since that first game. However, FCG's offense is bottom of the barrel.
An interesting twist is which players will FCG play. FCG has a team roster of 36 players (about 2/3's are PT players - check a game report to see FCG's full contingent of players) but, per USSDA rules, can only roster a max of 18 for the game.
Last time these teams met it was a 2-0 result for TFA, but TFA was missing JS, who is a significant offensive contributor, and EC, who is a significant defensive contributor.
Should be a fun, high stakes match to watch.
Looks like you flipped LA and SD...