Alex Sorto
BRONZE
LA Premier FC DA. 13- Wins. And 9 - Losses. Last game LA Premier VS Real So Cal won 3/0. No Draws
2006 DA
- Thread starter Zvezdas
- Start date
Alex Sorto
BRONZE
Sorry LA Premier 12 - Wins and 9-Losses
Kante
PREMIER
got it. thx. fixed.
Kante
PREMIER
by popular demand... here's predicts for this weekend (5/18 & 5/19). home team is listed first.
Los Angeles
FC Golden State 3 vs Santa Barbara SC 1
Pateadores 3 vs Real SoCal 1
LAFC 6 vs LA Galaxy 1 note: maybe a match to play some of the LAFC 07s up...
LAUFA 2 vs Legends 1
LA Premier 1 vs TFA 4
FC Golden State 2 vs LAUFA 1
Legends 1 vs Pateadores 3
Santa Barbara SC 1 vs LA Premier 4
San Diego
Albion 2 vs LAGSD 3
Strikers 1 vs SD Surf 1 *match to watch*
note: first, fyi, the algo says this match will be 3-2 Strikers but looking at the two previous matches, there's no way there's that many goals and am thinking it will be 1-1.
Both teams are ranked in TopDrawer's Top Ten in the country. SD Surf is the only team to hold the Strikers scoreless in group play, winning previous matches 1-0 and 2-0. At one point, SD Surf was one of the best u13 defenses in the country with eight shut-outs in a row from Nov 3rd to March 16th. On the flip side, the Strikers are no slouches, averaging more than five goals scored per game since playing the second SD Surf match, with five shutouts over those eight matches.
Plus there's a little home field advantage controversy brewing with SD Surf players picking up two yellows when playing the first time in Irvine, and SD Surf being awarded two PKs when the teams played the second time in San Diego.
Should be a fun game to watch.
Arsenal 2 vs OC Surf 2
Murrieta Surf 4 vs Chula Vista 1
Nomads 1 vs SDSC 3
SD Surf 5 vs Chula Vista 1
Nomads 0 vs Strikers 6 note: maybe a match to play some Striker 07s up...
SDSC 3 vs Arsenal 2
OC Surf 1 vs LAGSD 2
Los Angeles
FC Golden State 3 vs Santa Barbara SC 1
Pateadores 3 vs Real SoCal 1
LAFC 6 vs LA Galaxy 1 note: maybe a match to play some of the LAFC 07s up...
LAUFA 2 vs Legends 1
LA Premier 1 vs TFA 4
FC Golden State 2 vs LAUFA 1
Legends 1 vs Pateadores 3
Santa Barbara SC 1 vs LA Premier 4
San Diego
Albion 2 vs LAGSD 3
Strikers 1 vs SD Surf 1 *match to watch*
note: first, fyi, the algo says this match will be 3-2 Strikers but looking at the two previous matches, there's no way there's that many goals and am thinking it will be 1-1.
Both teams are ranked in TopDrawer's Top Ten in the country. SD Surf is the only team to hold the Strikers scoreless in group play, winning previous matches 1-0 and 2-0. At one point, SD Surf was one of the best u13 defenses in the country with eight shut-outs in a row from Nov 3rd to March 16th. On the flip side, the Strikers are no slouches, averaging more than five goals scored per game since playing the second SD Surf match, with five shutouts over those eight matches.
Plus there's a little home field advantage controversy brewing with SD Surf players picking up two yellows when playing the first time in Irvine, and SD Surf being awarded two PKs when the teams played the second time in San Diego.
Should be a fun game to watch.
Arsenal 2 vs OC Surf 2
Murrieta Surf 4 vs Chula Vista 1
Nomads 1 vs SDSC 3
SD Surf 5 vs Chula Vista 1
Nomads 0 vs Strikers 6 note: maybe a match to play some Striker 07s up...
SDSC 3 vs Arsenal 2
OC Surf 1 vs LAGSD 2
Forza-empoli!
BRONZE
strikers- 2 and surf-0.
Strikers dominated possession with Surf chasing most of the game. Surf only had three shots on target. Strikers hit the post twice.
Strikers dominated possession with Surf chasing most of the game. Surf only had three shots on target. Strikers hit the post twice.
Jason morrison
BRONZE
2 weak goals given up by Surf defense, 2 rare defense mistakes handing both goals to Strikers on a silver platter. Strikers came out to win, great energy, heart and persistence. Earned oppurtunities in final 3rd were lacking on both sides.
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts for this weekend (6/1 & 6/2). home teams are listed first.
Los Angeles
Real SoCal 1 vs Pateadores 2
Legends 2 vs TFA 8 *maybe a good match to play some TFA '07s up*
LAFC 4 vs Santa Barbara SC 1 (assumes LAFC plays a majority of 07s against Santa Barbara)
note: per this Q&A with LAFC DOC Todd Saldana, LAFC DA focus has shifted with more youngers playing up an age group. This has translated to, since February, LAFC playing, on average, 2-3 07s up in the u13 matches.
Against Santa Barbara SC however, LAFC played 12 07s in their first match and six 07s up in their second match. Both matches ended in a 3-0 results for LAFC. It's reasonable to think "well, santa barbara is not good, so that makes sense." But, looking at the numbers, Santa Barbara, while not great, is on par with Real SoCal and the Legends, and has recent wins against LA Premier and LAUFA. For context, against Legends and Real SoCal, LAFC played three 07s in their last matches against each team. Not sure what this says re: LAFC's opinion about Santa Barbara...
For the record, the algo says that if LAFC played 06s vs Santa Barbara, the score would be 4-0 LAFC. Not sure about the level of confidence here, but it is what is.
LAUFA 2 vs LA Galaxy 2
note: LA Galaxy has added six new players to their team roster, at least some of which played at the Man City cup. per 3leches, at least three of these players are from Paramount FC and, per multiple comments, all of the new players showed well at Man City. The algo has the match at 2-2 but that's based on LAG's historical roster. Will be interesting to see how the 2019-20 pending LAG roster does this weekend.
LAFC 2 vs LA Premier 0
Santa Barbara SC 1 Real SoCal 1
San Diego
SD Surf 6 vs Arsenal 1 *maybe a good match to play some SD Surf '07s up*
LAGSD 2 vs Murrieta Surf 2
San Diego SC 0 vs Strikers 3
Chula Vista 1 Albion 2
SD Surf 4 vs Albion 1
Murrieta Surf 2 vs Nomads 1
Los Angeles
Real SoCal 1 vs Pateadores 2
Legends 2 vs TFA 8 *maybe a good match to play some TFA '07s up*
LAFC 4 vs Santa Barbara SC 1 (assumes LAFC plays a majority of 07s against Santa Barbara)
note: per this Q&A with LAFC DOC Todd Saldana, LAFC DA focus has shifted with more youngers playing up an age group. This has translated to, since February, LAFC playing, on average, 2-3 07s up in the u13 matches.
Against Santa Barbara SC however, LAFC played 12 07s in their first match and six 07s up in their second match. Both matches ended in a 3-0 results for LAFC. It's reasonable to think "well, santa barbara is not good, so that makes sense." But, looking at the numbers, Santa Barbara, while not great, is on par with Real SoCal and the Legends, and has recent wins against LA Premier and LAUFA. For context, against Legends and Real SoCal, LAFC played three 07s in their last matches against each team. Not sure what this says re: LAFC's opinion about Santa Barbara...
For the record, the algo says that if LAFC played 06s vs Santa Barbara, the score would be 4-0 LAFC. Not sure about the level of confidence here, but it is what is.
LAUFA 2 vs LA Galaxy 2
note: LA Galaxy has added six new players to their team roster, at least some of which played at the Man City cup. per 3leches, at least three of these players are from Paramount FC and, per multiple comments, all of the new players showed well at Man City. The algo has the match at 2-2 but that's based on LAG's historical roster. Will be interesting to see how the 2019-20 pending LAG roster does this weekend.
LAFC 2 vs LA Premier 0
Santa Barbara SC 1 Real SoCal 1
San Diego
SD Surf 6 vs Arsenal 1 *maybe a good match to play some SD Surf '07s up*
LAGSD 2 vs Murrieta Surf 2
San Diego SC 0 vs Strikers 3
Chula Vista 1 Albion 2
SD Surf 4 vs Albion 1
Murrieta Surf 2 vs Nomads 1
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Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts vs actuals for this last weekend (6/1 & 6/2). home teams are listed first.
Los Angeles
Predict: Real SoCal 1 vs Pateadores 2. Actuals: Real SoCal 0 vs Pateadores 5.
note: surprised by this. RSC had a significant improvement on both sides of the ball from starting late Feb but it looks like that run ended in late April. Curious to see. Maybe an injury to a key player...
Predict: Legends 2 vs TFA 8 Actuals: Legends 0 vs TFA 3
note: per the game report, looks like Legends held tough and a little scrappy in the 1st half.
predict: LAFC 4 vs Santa Barbara SC 0 Actuals: LAFC 4 vs Santa Barbara SC 0
note: LAFC played mostly 06s in this match, as opposed to the last two matches where LAFC fielded a large number of 07s. Had it 4-1 if LAFc played a significant # of 07s. here's note from predict if LAFC played 06s:
"*For the record, the algo says that if LAFC played 06s vs Santa Barbara, the score would be 4-0 LAFC. Not sure about the level of confidence here, but it is what is.*"
predict: LAUFA 2 vs LA Galaxy 2 Actuals: LAUFA 0 vs LA Galaxy 5
note: seems like the new players LAG added are making a difference.
predict: LAFC 2 vs LA Premier 0 Actuals: LAFC 8 vs LA Prem 0
note: ouch. LA Prem peaked with a 3-1 win over the Pats in mid-April and has been a steady decline since.
predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 Real SoCal 1 Actuals: Santa Barbara SC 3 Real SoCal 1
note: not sure what's going on with RSC. they had steady improvement thru the season that looks like it peaked w/ 2-1 win over LAG in mid-April, but then took a big step down in the four games that followed with a significantly greater than expected decline in performance.
San Diego
predict: SD Surf 6 vs Arsenal 1 Actuals: SD Surf 1 vs Arsenal 2
note: Wow. SD Surf fielded a mostly 06 team but Arsenal stepped up in their last match of the season. Good for Arsenal.
predict: LAGSD 2 vs Murrieta Surf 2 Actuals: LAGSD 1 vs Murrieta Surf 0
predict: San Diego SC 0 vs Strikers 3 Actuals: San Diego SC 0 vs Strikers 3
predict: Chula Vista 1 vs Albion 2 Actuals: Chula Vista 0 vs Albion 7
note: Chula Vista has had a tough season, and sometimes tough seasons end like this. bummer. hopefully the Chula Vista team regroups and rallies for CRL in 2019-20.
predict: SD Surf 4 vs Albion 1 Actuals: SD Surf 4 vs Albion 0
predict: Murrieta Surf 2 vs Nomads 1 Actuals: Murrieta Surf 0 vs Nomads 0
Los Angeles
Predict: Real SoCal 1 vs Pateadores 2. Actuals: Real SoCal 0 vs Pateadores 5.
note: surprised by this. RSC had a significant improvement on both sides of the ball from starting late Feb but it looks like that run ended in late April. Curious to see. Maybe an injury to a key player...
Predict: Legends 2 vs TFA 8 Actuals: Legends 0 vs TFA 3
note: per the game report, looks like Legends held tough and a little scrappy in the 1st half.
predict: LAFC 4 vs Santa Barbara SC 0 Actuals: LAFC 4 vs Santa Barbara SC 0
note: LAFC played mostly 06s in this match, as opposed to the last two matches where LAFC fielded a large number of 07s. Had it 4-1 if LAFc played a significant # of 07s. here's note from predict if LAFC played 06s:
"*For the record, the algo says that if LAFC played 06s vs Santa Barbara, the score would be 4-0 LAFC. Not sure about the level of confidence here, but it is what is.*"
predict: LAUFA 2 vs LA Galaxy 2 Actuals: LAUFA 0 vs LA Galaxy 5
note: seems like the new players LAG added are making a difference.
predict: LAFC 2 vs LA Premier 0 Actuals: LAFC 8 vs LA Prem 0
note: ouch. LA Prem peaked with a 3-1 win over the Pats in mid-April and has been a steady decline since.
predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 Real SoCal 1 Actuals: Santa Barbara SC 3 Real SoCal 1
note: not sure what's going on with RSC. they had steady improvement thru the season that looks like it peaked w/ 2-1 win over LAG in mid-April, but then took a big step down in the four games that followed with a significantly greater than expected decline in performance.
San Diego
predict: SD Surf 6 vs Arsenal 1 Actuals: SD Surf 1 vs Arsenal 2
note: Wow. SD Surf fielded a mostly 06 team but Arsenal stepped up in their last match of the season. Good for Arsenal.
predict: LAGSD 2 vs Murrieta Surf 2 Actuals: LAGSD 1 vs Murrieta Surf 0
predict: San Diego SC 0 vs Strikers 3 Actuals: San Diego SC 0 vs Strikers 3
predict: Chula Vista 1 vs Albion 2 Actuals: Chula Vista 0 vs Albion 7
note: Chula Vista has had a tough season, and sometimes tough seasons end like this. bummer. hopefully the Chula Vista team regroups and rallies for CRL in 2019-20.
predict: SD Surf 4 vs Albion 1 Actuals: SD Surf 4 vs Albion 0
predict: Murrieta Surf 2 vs Nomads 1 Actuals: Murrieta Surf 0 vs Nomads 0
Kante
PREMIER
here's predicts for this weekend. home teams are listed first.
Los Angeles
LA Premier 2 vs LAUFA 1
LAUFA 1 vs FC Golden State 3
San Diego
Nomads 1 vs LAGSD 2
note: per the stats, the Nomads all the way through the second to last match are the most improved u13 team in Souther California, with their defensive improvement over time explaining about 33% of their match results. Can't tell if the improvement is due to player development or adding a couple of new players.
If player development, good work Nomad coaches. If it was adding the new players then hopefully US Soccer is keeping an eye on those new players. For reference, the turning point to the Nomads' season seems to have happened right after their 1-4 loss to Chula Vista at the end of January.
Any commentary from Nomads' folks on what changed?
Here's their defensive chart tracking goals allowed as a % of average goals scored by their opponent. The lower the % the better the Nomads played defensively.
Los Angeles
LA Premier 2 vs LAUFA 1
LAUFA 1 vs FC Golden State 3
San Diego
Nomads 1 vs LAGSD 2
note: per the stats, the Nomads all the way through the second to last match are the most improved u13 team in Souther California, with their defensive improvement over time explaining about 33% of their match results. Can't tell if the improvement is due to player development or adding a couple of new players.
If player development, good work Nomad coaches. If it was adding the new players then hopefully US Soccer is keeping an eye on those new players. For reference, the turning point to the Nomads' season seems to have happened right after their 1-4 loss to Chula Vista at the end of January.
Any commentary from Nomads' folks on what changed?
Here's their defensive chart tracking goals allowed as a % of average goals scored by their opponent. The lower the % the better the Nomads played defensively.
re: LAUFA - we've had some recent departures, including our top three scorers. Most recently we lost our top striker to TFA. A few 07's have been playing up. Will likely have several 07's this weekend in order to field a full team.
LAUFA has some huge 07s.
Jason morrison
BRONZE
Going be some some interesting changes at SDSurf...scrambling? ... Benoit to LAFC... looks like Cody out as well ..good luck to both of them great guys & coaches .. let's see what happens at Surf for this great 06 squad!
Keeper3114
BRONZE
Where is Cody going?
Kante
PREMIER
Here’s the final improved/least improved list for the 2018-19 season thru all game results posted by USSDA as of 6/15/19.
Per multiple requests for more information, am including a full list of all SoCal teams.
Am using a simple statistical calc – regression – to look at how each team performed relative their group peers this season over time. The calc generates two key numbers:
a) coefficient = the amount of goal differential % a team improves/decline by over time. For example, if a team gets 5% better each game on average, then, at the end of the u13 27 game season, that team would be 135% better in the last game of the season than they were in their first game of the season.
While there's some caveats, the coefficient number is good surrogate for how much team development occurred over the course of the season. (will take a look at the caveats in a later post)
b) intercept = this is the starting point where the team was in terms of goal differential % before they played their first game. For example, TFA had a 142% intercept which means that, the beginning of the season, TFA would have, on average, a 142% greater goal differential vs other teams, and effectively was about 3x better than LA Premier at the beginning of the season.
This intercept number is a very good surrogate for the quality of the players put together by a team at the beginning of the season i.e. how good are a team’s players as a group at the beginning of the season before receiving coaching.
Of note, the top four SoCal team are roughly equivalent, give or take, but then there is a big drop-off to the second tier of teams.
Here’s the ranked list of teams by how much they improved in 2018-19:
Here's the improvement ranking as a chart:
Here’s the ranked list of teams for the player quality that each team started with at the beginning of the season.
Here's the player quality at the beginning of the season chart:
Per multiple requests for more information, am including a full list of all SoCal teams.
Am using a simple statistical calc – regression – to look at how each team performed relative their group peers this season over time. The calc generates two key numbers:
a) coefficient = the amount of goal differential % a team improves/decline by over time. For example, if a team gets 5% better each game on average, then, at the end of the u13 27 game season, that team would be 135% better in the last game of the season than they were in their first game of the season.
While there's some caveats, the coefficient number is good surrogate for how much team development occurred over the course of the season. (will take a look at the caveats in a later post)
b) intercept = this is the starting point where the team was in terms of goal differential % before they played their first game. For example, TFA had a 142% intercept which means that, the beginning of the season, TFA would have, on average, a 142% greater goal differential vs other teams, and effectively was about 3x better than LA Premier at the beginning of the season.
This intercept number is a very good surrogate for the quality of the players put together by a team at the beginning of the season i.e. how good are a team’s players as a group at the beginning of the season before receiving coaching.
Of note, the top four SoCal team are roughly equivalent, give or take, but then there is a big drop-off to the second tier of teams.
Here’s the ranked list of teams by how much they improved in 2018-19:
Here's the improvement ranking as a chart:
Here’s the ranked list of teams for the player quality that each team started with at the beginning of the season.
Here's the player quality at the beginning of the season chart:
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Yes. Premier got the U14s.