here's predicts for this weekend (had to dust off the algo a bit...)
If there is a match involving a socal team that is not listed below, please send a note. the USSDA scheduling app with the different DA cup and regular season schedules - and then the different groups within the DA Cup schedule - is not intuitive and a match may have been missed.
Caveats/full disclosure to the predicts below are that 1) the predicts are based on 2018-19 results and trends, and do not include adjustments for 2019-20 roster changes 2) u14 to u15 is a time when the boys are in the middle of significant developmental changes. some early bloomers may have finished their growth spurts and some late bloomers may be starting to catch up. it's fair to say that all the teams below had a large number of early developers on their teams last year and it will be interesting to see how this affects results this year.
Net net, results could vary widely from predicts. In years past, it usually takes about ten games to get the predicts dialed in...
Home team is listed first.
LAGSD 2 vs TFA 1
(thanks to Soccerdad2016 for pointing this match out. didn't see it in the cup schedule initially)
An interesting match btw teams w/ some roster change. TFA lost about 2/3's of their roster over the summer, including most of their back line and their leading scorer, plus their coach, so a very different team than the one that beat LAFC and LAG last year.
On the flip side, LAGSD was trending up by the end of the 2018-19 season and added three players from San Diego Surf.
Match should be a good measuring stick for both teams.
LA Galaxy 3 vs FC Golden State 1
Both teams largely kept their cores intact and added a couple of TFA players. Last season, FCG managed to give LAG a run for their money in their last two games but LAG was missing players in those matches. Also, LAG has a new coaching staff and presumably a new philosophy on how to play and train... will be interesting to see how the LAG players are responding. This match should be a good measuring stick for both teams.
The algo says Pateadores 2 vs San Diego Surf 9, but, with the SD Surf roster changes the gut check says this one will be Pats 2 SD Surf 2.
If the USSDA roster and comments on this board (thank you Soccerdad2016!) are accurate, the SD Surf lost 16 players from last season. This includes, for example, losing two players that contributed 55 goals - more than half of SD Surf's total - last year. And 55 goals probably understates the impact of these two forwards since the attention they drew from other teams opened up scoring opportunities for other SD Surf players. There was similar but harder to quantify attrition in the midfield and the defense.
On the flip side, after disappointing season last year, the Pats look like they moved to improve across the board but all the adds were from outside the DA, so it's tough to know what impact the new players will have.
Will be interesting to see if TW from SD Surf steps up and how XG does. The SD Surf changes had to be particularly hard on XG but he's solid player. With the Pats, honestly surprised that AG is still w/ the Pats, so good on them for retaining him. Am sure a number of clubs are interested in him.
Sacramento Republic 0 vs LAFC 2
LAFC had some challenges scoring goals last year and they look like they improved a bit offensively, and, maybe, defensively. also, they picked up two non-US nationals and it'll be interesting to see how they do.
haven't followed Sac Republic (but will be expanding the data set driving the algo in subsequent weeks to include northwest teams for 05), but the numbers that are available support the 0-2 predict.
The only other time these teams have met in DA play was the 2017 u13 showcase. The score then was Sac 0 LAFC 2 as well. RW scored in minute #4 and AW scored in minute #46.
An interesting note is that last season, the LAFC u15 team that went to the u15 finals, pointedly did not travel north (whereas almost every other SoCal team did). USSDA may be making a point, with scheduling LAFC first two games of the season in Norcal.
De Anza 0 vs LAFC 3
See above. Don't have a good sense of De Anza but the numbers that are available support the 0-3 predict.
