'23-'24 SoCal and National Forecast and Updates

[Unlucky]

No structure is going to work if they don’t fix the seeding.

2010s had two of the best teams in the country meet in group. They beat the other teams by a combined score of 24-3.

Similar stories in other years.

Where is the fun in that?

It happens in every age group even the 2009s where the top three seeds all faced teams ranked in the top ten per the rankings app.

#1 PDA faced #8 AZ Arsenal
#2 MVLA faced #4 Surf
#3 Solar faced #7 San Juan

The better teams moved on in each of these groups but it certainly wasn't an easy path for the top seeds like it would be in professional sports. There was potential for a group to have four top ten teams in the same group which would've been outrageous (i.e. Solar drawing Penn Fusion, FC Dallas and Surf)

There's a strong argument to be had against making conference champs #1 seeds, especially with historical weakness in Ohio Valley, Northwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, but ECNL likely feels that there needs to be some incentive and reward for teams to win their conference.

Outside of using straight analytical data like the rankings app uses, there's no easy way to seed teams in ECNL which means the present system is almost certainly here to stay.

I'd also argue that the current ECNL system seems to work well and the teams who make the semis across all ages every year seems to be representative of the best teams over the course of the season so ECNL doesn't feel any pressure to change how they seed outside of shifting some qualification slots from underperforming conferences to overperforming conferences (which is happening)

 

[way up]

No structure is going to work if they don’t fix the seeding.

2010s had two of the best teams in the country meet in group. They beat the other teams by a combined score of 24-3.

Similar stories in other years.

Where is the fun in that?

At the very least, they need to have proper size fields for the amount of teams coming and good refs. If we're calling this a crowning, should there not be good refs? Having to find so many refs in one place is going to limit the quality of skill no matter what and where imo and it's going to be very bad in areas that are not as populated with soccer events.

Next, and kind of my issue, it's hard to get your whole team around competing for nattys knowing it's going to cost $10k for just traveling to these events. Some teams have that wealth, but not all, so there is an advantage to some teams as their team culture and discipline focuses on nattys.

Now throw in potential guest scholarships and end of season shenanigans and I guarantee many teams will bring in new players and those disciplined teams will be following a strategy where the coaches have looked at film and are truly planned to win nattys. Hey, good for them, I'm not hating, but I'm pointing out that not all teams are geared to go all the way to nattys and much of the time the soccer is diluted and tight. To me, this should be the cheapest form of competition not the most expensive as it's going to be even tighter and more diluted from the expensive/time stealing pressure.

First priority imo is to have one playoff with a limited amount of teams and get it wrapped up. The first round of playoffs gives those teams with spy resources too much of a look at the other team's games which also takes the competitive spirit out imo. One round of 16 to final game is perfect imo. However each region can promote a proper ratio of teams for this playoff is best imo for us soccer, parents, and players. Of course, who cares about them!???

 

[Unlucky]

It happens in every age group even the 2009s where the top three seeds all faced teams ranked in the top ten per the rankings app.

#1 PDA faced #8 AZ Arsenal
#2 MVLA faced #4 Surf
#3 Solar faced #7 San Juan

The better teams moved on in each of these groups but it certainly wasn't an easy path for the top seeds like it would be in professional sports. There was potential for a group to have four top ten teams in the same group which would've been outrageous (i.e. Solar drawing Penn Fusion, FC Dallas and Surf)

There's a strong argument to be had against making conference champs #1 seeds, especially with historical weakness in Ohio Valley, Northwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, but ECNL likely feels that there needs to be some incentive and reward for teams to win their conference.

Outside of using straight analytical data like the rankings app uses, there's no easy way to seed teams in ECNL which means the present system is almost certainly here to stay.

I'd also argue that the current ECNL system seems to work well and the teams who make the semis across all ages every year seems to be representative of the best teams over the course of the season so ECNL doesn't feel any pressure to change how they seed outside of shifting some qualification slots from underperforming conferences to overperforming conferences (which is happening)

Realizing Solar and Dallas couldn't be in the same group, the same point could be made with MVLA getting a group of Penn Fusion, FC Dallas and Surf or PDA in a group with KC Athletics, FC Dallas and Surf.

There will always be low seeds who are top teams and high seeds that are paper tigers, but it's hard to subjectively seed those teams beyond results. We know SW is best, but our top two seeded teams didn't even make the round of 16 while we have two #4 seeds in the quarters. Would it have been fair to seed Surf and Koge above Beach and AZ Arsenal?

 

[Unlucky]

At the very least, they need to have proper size fields for the amount of teams coming and good refs. If we're calling this a crowning, should there not be good refs? Having to find so many refs in one place is going to limit the quality of skill no matter what and where imo and it's going to be very bad in areas that are not as populated with soccer events.

Next, and kind of my issue, it's hard to get your whole team around competing for nattys knowing it's going to cost $10k for just traveling to these events. Some teams have that wealth, but not all, so there is an advantage to some teams as their team culture and discipline focuses on nattys.

Now throw in potential guest scholarships and end of season shenanigans and I guarantee many teams will bring in new players and those disciplined teams will be following a strategy where the coaches have looked at film and are truly planned to win nattys. Hey, good for them, I'm not hating, but I'm pointing out that not all teams are geared to go all the way to nattys and much of the time the soccer is diluted and tight. To me, this should be the cheapest form of competition not the most expensive as it's going to be even tighter and more diluted from the expensive/time stealing pressure.

First priority imo is to have one playoff with a limited amount of teams and get it wrapped up. The first round of playoffs gives those teams with spy resources too much of a look at the other team's games which also takes the competitive spirit out imo. One round of 16 to final game is perfect imo. However each region can promote a proper ratio of teams for this playoff is best imo for us soccer, parents, and players. Of course, who cares about them!???

ECNL flies in almost all of the refs to playoffs fwiw. They're not hiring locals.

I love the talk and I've already shared my thoughts on the value of playoffs which are opposite of yours so I'm not going to be argumentative, but there is a demand for spots on ECNL teams that will fill whatever void is left from families who decide the costs and travel are too much so I wouldn't expect ECNL to change anything with the playoff format and locations.

 

[way up]

ECNL flies in almost all of the refs to playoffs fwiw. They're not hiring locals.

I love the talk and I've already shared my thoughts on the value of playoffs which are opposite of yours so I'm not going to be argumentative, but there is a demand for spots on ECNL teams that will fill whatever void is left from families who decide the costs and travel are too much so I wouldn't expect ECNL to change anything with the playoff format and locations.

Exactly why there really isn't a crowning of #1? When a coach can build a team of RL and ECNL Players that can beat a potential or even crowned #1 team, is that crowned team really #1? I don't disagree with what you're saying. I'm just saying the philosophy is backwards for US Soccer.

Being the team that can sum up $100k and coach resources for spying and parents and coaches that recruit for that winning advantage in another state don't really mean much to me now after witinessing the playoff structure? They are also diluting the competition and true crowning!

 

[way up]

Exactly why there really isn't a crowning of #1? When a coach can build a team of RL and ECNL Players that can beat a potential or even crowned #1 team, is that crowned team really #1? I don't disagree with what you're saying. I'm just saying the philosophy is backwards for US Soccer.

Being the team that can sum up $100k and coach resources for spying and parents and coaches that recruit for that winning advantage in another state don't really mean much to me now after witinessing the playoff structure? They are also diluting the competition and true crowning!

OMG! If those refs were flown in, I am flabbergasted! Wow! This is truly getting depressing now.

 

[crush]

No structure is going to work if they don’t fix the seeding.

2010s had two of the best teams in the country meet in group. They beat the other teams by a combined score of 24-3.

Similar stories in other years.

Where is the fun in that?

It's a complete joke and the cost to beat teams 14-1 is stupid, unless you got the money to play. Like I said before, Socal and Nocal need to have their own league, The California Youth Soccer Federation. The winner can play for a Champions League Medal against the rest of the best. Have the other States play and the winner plays California Champ. I would rather lose 3-2 then beat a team 10-0. Boring!!!

 

[way up]

It's a complete joke and the cost to beat teams 14-1 is stupid, unless you got the money to play. Like I said before, Socal and Nocal need to have their own league, The California Soccer Federation. The winner can play for a Champions League Medal against the rest of the best. Have the other States play and the winner plays California Champ. I would rather lose 3-2 then beat a team 10-0. Boring!!!

It really might take an economic event to change this, but there will be one soon! It's a matter of time. This is almost a good correlation to living in a giant financial bubble. People are sheep and tend to be very unwise with their hard earned money. A fool and his money are easily parted. Many times rich people are foolish too especially with peaking housing and equity markets!!! The last housing crisies kind of showed that and so much financial strength is in our real estate in Ca. Just imagine how financially depressing it can get if interest rates keep going up. We don't have a lot of inventory, so prices are staying up so long as there are jobs. We shall see how this evolves as America has more than 82 trillion dollars of total debt already spent and injected. Again, 60% of American Adults have less than $1k of savings for an emergency. I wonder how many of them pay for ECNL Playoff Travel? The thing is people think the next ten years will be better than the last. One day that changes and it's worse. Oh well, we all play the game!

 

[way up]

It really might take an economic event to change this, but there will be one soon! It's a matter of time. This is almost a good correlation to living in a giant financial bubble. People are sheep and tend to be very unwise with their hard earned money. A fool and his money are easily parted. Many times rich people are foolish too especially with peaking housing and equity markets!!! The last housing crisies kind of showed that and so much financial strength is in our real estate in Ca. Just imagine how financially depressing it can get if interest rates keep going up. We don't have a lot of inventory, so prices are staying up so long as there are jobs. We shall see how this evolves as America has more than 82 trillion dollars of total debt already spent and injected. Again, 60% of American Adults have less than $1k of savings for an emergency. I wonder how many of them pay for ECNL Playoff Travel? The thing is people think the next ten years will be better than the last. One day that changes and it's worse. Oh well, we all play the game!

Funny enough, I'm talking to my economic group about some current real estate stats such as home ownership prices vs rent and this conversation pretty much solidifies how toppy we might be economically. Everything is fine until squatters stop paying their ren atnd landlords stop paying their banks, but the clock is ticking while interest rates will probably dip one more time and test the lows before crushing pocket books in a year or two. We're not there yet, but getting very close! Commercial real esate really has exposure to bad loans and future crisis. People better research and understand that there could be risk depositing money at banks with high interest compensation. They are borrowing money from you for a reason!

 

[MARsSPEED]

I think the best way to handle playoffs is just do something similar to USYS. The problem isn’t so much ECNL as it is College Coaches who want to see the top teams at one tournament instead of all over the country which is why the USYS model doesn’t work…unless you could maybe spread the Regional over multiple weekends for different regions.

I actually think this is how ECNL RL is somewhat structured and the correct way instead of the NL way, shipping kids and families east and west spending thousands.

College coaches have so much pull that now ECNL and GA finals are in the same city after many complaints. Same can be said of Showcases.

I certainly don’t have a good answer to keep the College Coaches happy.

 

[way up]

I think the best way to handle playoffs is just do something similar to USYS. The problem isn’t so much ECNL as it is College Coaches who want to see the top teams at one tournament instead of all over the country which is why the USYS model doesn’t work…unless you could maybe spread the Regional over multiple weekends for different regions.

I actually think this is how ECNL RL is somewhat structured and the correct way instead of the NL way, shipping kids and families east and west spending thousands.

College coaches have so much pull that now ECNL and GA finals are in the same city after many complaints. Same can be said of Showcases.

I certainly don’t have a good answer to keep the College Coaches happy.

You don't do any 3 v 3 events in So Cal do you MARs?

 

[Carlsbad7]

The answer is for CA teams to just do a NorCal/SoCal (and all western states) tournament that you have to qualify for.

CA teams flying to the East coast to play against less developed teams provides little benefit.

I wish someone like ESPN + RedBull would team up and do a massive televised tournament with all teams qualified by the rankings app regardless of league.

 

[Unlucky]

The answer is for CA teams to just do a NorCal/SoCal (and all western states) tournament that you have to qualify for.

CA teams flying to the East coast to play against less developed teams provides little benefit.

I wish someone like ESPN + RedBull would team up and do a massive televised tournament with all teams qualified by the rankings app regardless of league.

I see your point but tend to give more respect to teams outside our region. I think we've had one team make the semis (Surf) in two years and have yet to win a title.

 

[Fieldsofgold]

The answer is for CA teams to just do a NorCal/SoCal (and all western states) tournament that you have to qualify for.

CA teams flying to the East coast to play against less developed teams provides little benefit.

I wish someone like ESPN + RedBull would team up and do a massive televised tournament with all teams qualified by the rankings app regardless of league.

Yes!!!! The CA teams should have their own tournament. They should do this twice a year and just forgo playoffs

Hold the first tournament after fall ends and then the second should be held just after spring season ends. Then everyone can take a month off for summer

 

[chipmonk]

I think the best way to handle playoffs is just do something similar to USYS. The problem isn’t so much ECNL as it is College Coaches who want to see the top teams at one tournament instead of all over the country which is why the USYS model doesn’t work…unless you could maybe spread the Regional over multiple weekends for different regions.

I actually think this is how ECNL RL is somewhat structured and the correct way instead of the NL way, shipping kids and families east and west spending thousands.

College coaches have so much pull that now ECNL and GA finals are in the same city after many complaints. Same can be said of Showcases.

I certainly don’t have a good answer to keep the College Coaches happy.

Maybe F the college coaches. Why are they worth catering to? We want them to feel more entitled?

There are plenty of top regional tournaments for them to go to that these same teams are playing at, even at the same locations.

 

[rainbow_unicorn]

ECNL playoffs is the one event where you'll get most of the top girl players in the country at one location. As a result you have almost every major D1 school there. The end goal for most girls who play ECNL is to get into college. The league is structured to accommodate college coaches with showcases and playoffs.

TBH, I'm surprised that 09 parents still care about winning, rank and seeding. Winning is nice but the focus for this year for 09's is college recruiting.

 

[crush]

ECNL playoffs is the one event where you'll get most of the top girl players in the country at one location. As a result you have almost every major D1 school there. The end goal for most girls who play ECNL is to get into college. The league is structured to accommodate college coaches with showcases and playoffs.

TBH, I'm surprised that 09 parents still care about winning, rank and seeding. Winning is nice but the focus for this year for 09's is college recruiting.

100% true Rainbow. It's a big wake up call for those of us who love pure competition without the GPA being added to the mix of "elite" soccer player.

 

[chiefs]

ECNL playoffs is the one event where you'll get most of the top girl players in the country at one location. As a result you have almost every major D1 school there. The end goal for most girls who play ECNL is to get into college. The league is structured to accommodate college coaches with showcases and playoffs.

TBH, I'm surprised that 09 parents still care about winning, rank and seeding. Winning is nice but the focus for this year for 09's is college recruiting.

It is a balance, yes parents #1’priority is recruiting but to attract more colleges the team your kid plays on must demonstrate some ability to win at a higher level such as playoffs.

 

[MARsSPEED]

You don't do any 3 v 3 events in So Cal do you MARs?

No, stopped 3v3 at U13. The best players I know have all done 3v3 out here and seem to have higher soccer IQ’s than others. That’s why I am such a strong advocate. I think of younger ages did more 3v3 than full sided games, you would see a drastic increase in the team game, unselfishness and IQ.

Best example is Madeline DiMaria who we played at 3v3 Nationals. The top players at PDA Blue also did 3v3. FC Prime girls as well as UFA girls. I would say most of the USYNT players in 2008 and 2009 age groups, East of the Rockies, played a good amount of 3v3. Now that I think about it, 07s too. We had 4 players from those years just from our 3v3 club end up on USYNT rosters over those three years.

I am probably going to start my own 3v3 Club again once DD goes to college. It was also the most fun the girls had when they were young.

 

[Carlsbad7]

No, stopped 3v3 at U13. The best players I know have all done 3v3 out here and seem to have higher soccer IQ’s than others. That’s why I am such a strong advocate. I think of younger ages did more 3v3 than full sided games, you would see a drastic increase in the team game, unselfishness and IQ.

Best example is Madeline DiMaria who we played at 3v3 Nationals. The top players at PDA Blue also did 3v3. FC Prime girls as well as UFA girls. I would say most of the USYNT players in 2008 and 2009 age groups, East of the Rockies, played a good amount of 3v3. Now that I think about it, 07s too. We had 4 players from those years just from our 3v3 club end up on USYNT rosters over those three years.

I am probably going to start my own 3v3 Club again once DD goes to college. It was also the most fun the girls had when they were young.

Seems like a difficult way to make money + pay for field time when only 6 players can be on the field at a time.

In Socal I see more 5v5 and Futsal if you're looking for small sided games.

I agree with you that small sided games increases Soccer IQ much faster than traditional soccer. If you really want to see what small sided games can do for players have girls play with boys. Then you get triple the effect. Faster, more touches, and more aggressive.

 

[chiefs]

I see your point but tend to give more respect to teams outside our region. I think we've had one team make the semis (Surf) in two years and have yet to win a title.

I see your point but tend to give more respect to teams outside our region. I think we've had one team make the semis (Surf) in two years and have yet to win a title.

SW conference is clearly the best conference in this age group. 4 out of 8 in finals last year. This year it’s 3 out of 8.