Vaccine

Grace T. said:
It's easy if you think about it (but we all know you don't). I took the PCR test when I was starting to feel sick....I took the rapid test a couple days later
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"We all know you don't" is an unnecessary, dishonest, ad hominem attack. That, however, does not qualify for the "Most Graceful Post" award, mainly because it exhibits lazy, thoughtless behavior.
 
Grace T. said:
It's easy if you think about it (but we all know you don't). I took the PCR test when I was starting to feel sick....I took the rapid test a couple days later
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I kinda feel like the better place for you to start is by reading the actual studies before posting misleading tweets about what they say. It was a real hoot reading the study you claim says American kids should not wear masks, which actually cited two studies that said the exact opposite. If you're going to claim that wearing masks is too much emotionally for snowflake children, at least find something more directly misleading, ok?

Making up what studies say does sound like a fun game though. Here's one that says you and your anti-vax/mask friends can't walk and chew gum at the same time. Effects of chewing gum on mood, learning, memory and performance of an intelligence test - PubMed (nih.gov)
 
watfly said:
This provides a little window into cases of vaccinated vs unvaccinated. Not equal but the vaccinated get infected at a material rate.

View attachment 13090
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The breakdown by age is huge. The reduction for 65+ is a out 3x as strong as the reduction for 12-17.

Send the link. The super long time window makes it hard to see what is happening. The window you chose mixes the very low case rate, moderate transmissibility numbers from June 2021 with the very high case rate, very high transmissibility numbers from January 2022. They don’t really belong in the same sample.

If it just adds them all up, you get a misleading answer. The early population had more unvaccinated people. The late population has more vaccinated. This means your unvaccinated average is weighted towards the low case rate 2021 summer numbers. Conversely, your vaccinated average is weighted towards the Omicron surge.

Try the same thing with a 1-4 week window. That also would let you see whether the omicron protection is much different from delta..
 
dad4 said:
The breakdown by age is huge. The reduction for 65+ is a out 3x as strong as the reduction for 12-17.

Send the link. The super long time window makes it hard to see what is happening. The window you chose mixes the very low case rate, moderate transmissibility numbers from June 2021 with the very high case rate, very high transmissibility numbers from January 2022. They don’t really belong in the same sample.

If it just adds them all up, you get a misleading answer. The early population had more unvaccinated people. The late population has more vaccinated. This means your unvaccinated average is weighted towards the low case rate 2021 summer numbers. Conversely, your vaccinated average is weighted towards the Omicron surge.

Try the same thing with a 1-4 week window. That also would let you see whether the omicron protection is much different from delta..
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I don't necessarily disagree with you, it's likely not the best data, that's why I said window. It's only an indication that the vaccinated get infected at a material rate, and not a conclusive study. However, I haven't found (although I suspect there is) anywhere else where someone has attempted to make the comparison. I agree that you have to break it out between pre-vax, post-vax, Alpha, Delta and Omicron time periods. My suspicion is that for Omicron the rate of vaccinated infection is relatively high even in relation to the unvaccinated (its just that contagious). You also have to believe that behavior outside of being vaccinated influences these numbers as well. You would expect those at older ages (ie higher risk) who are vaccinated to also engage in less "risky" behavior as compared to those that are younger and vaccinated.

My point is that we have enough real world results to prove that its not good policy to discriminate against the unvaccinated, we only have evidence to support that its a really good idea for most adults to get vaccinated. I think its poor form to make law based on hope and not evidence.
 
watfly said:
I don't necessarily disagree with you, it's likely not the best data, that's why I said window. It's only an indication that the vaccinated get infected at a material rate, and not a conclusive study. However, I haven't found (although I suspect there is) anywhere else where someone has attempted to make the comparison. I agree that you have to break it out between pre-vax, post-vax, Alpha, Delta and Omicron time periods. My suspicion is that for Omicron the rate of vaccinated infection is relatively high even in relation to the unvaccinated (its just that contagious). You also have to believe that behavior outside of being vaccinated influences these numbers as well. You would expect those at older ages (ie higher risk) who are vaccinated to also engage in less "risky" behavior as compared to those that are younger and vaccinated.

My point is that we have enough real world results to prove that its not good policy to discriminate against the unvaccinated, we only have evidence to support that its a really good idea for most adults to get vaccinated. I think its poor form to make law based on hope and not evidence.
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The data is fine. You just need to not mix time frames.

A narrow delta window gets you a consistent 65-80% reduction across age groups. Kind of what team panic expected.

The narrow Omicron window puts it at a huge (79%) reduction for 65+, and a moderate ( 30-35%) reduction for 18-49 and 50-64. And almost no reduction at all for 12-17. 12%. I chose 1/9-1/16.

I have no idea what is behind the age dependency. It only shows up Omicron. You have very robust protection for 65+, and a minimal impact on 12-17. Same virus, same vaccine. Completely different results.

No sense in declaring a reason yet. Could be medical (vax works differently in kids?), or it could be environmental (transmission is different in crowded indoor places like schools?). Above my pay grade anyway.
 
GoldenGate said:
The alt right crowd can't handle it when others use their tactic of insulting people against them. It's no wonder their snowflakey children are too emotionally feeble to wear masks at school.

You do a disservice to everyone by trying to have honest conversation with people who are not willing to engage in honest conversation. It only gives them and others the impression that their beliefs and opinions are anything more than an absolute embarrassment and a joke. In the last few days you have seen: (1) the self-proclaimed "serious legal scholar" Grace T. cite a twitter post to support her anti-mask agenda, although the attached study attached related to the unique situation in Catalonia, Spain and, more importantly, acknowledged two American studies (which she blithely ignores of course) about America's situation which show that wearing masks substantially reduces transmission here; (2) clown boy soccersc citing an article he claims shows vaccines aren't important in schools, although the article itself says exactly the opposite (to which he rationalizes that his inability to understand what words mean is "cherry picking"), and although he ignores (yet again) your point and the fact that the study also undermines his anti-mask position (actual cherry picking in other words); (3) desert cactus claiming NZ is doing a terrible job with Covid-19 while AZ is going bigly great with policies that kill more people of Covid on a typical day than NZ has had die of Covid in two freakin' years; (4) multiple anti-vaxxers/maskers and conspiracy theorists minimizing studies that establish Covid-19 was not created in a Wuhan lab to reduce population, because they haven't been "peer reviewed", but who then turn around and cite twitter and Tik tok instead; (5) their blatantly racist anti-vax/mask friend claiming in another thread that the U.S. has 27 super, duper secret biological weapons plants in the Ukraine where they're also hiding Hillary's emails about her secret lasagna recipe; and (6) all of them conveniently ignoring their biggest anti-vax/mask proponents crush and the racist, who remind everyone daily which side has the whackadoos.

Some day you will understand that you can't reason with people like this. Humiliating them is the only way to get them to take off their viking hats and face paint, and resign themselves to staying in their lane, which is the (intellectually) slow one.
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Do you sit there and log off one account the nlog back on to the other to respond to yourself? or do you simply have two computers logged into both your accounts? Then you respond to your own post to get validation...lonely world you live in
 
soccersc said:
Do you sit there and log off one account the nlog back on to the other to respond to yourself? or do you simply have two computers logged into both your accounts? Then you respond to your own post to get validation...lonely world you live in
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I understand why you and your friends don't want to talk about all the studies you cite to "support" the exact opposite of what they actually say. It's pretty humiliating for sure. I do like how you claimed that words don't mean what they mean because "cherry picking". Again, I think you'll get a lot more traction from your fellow nutters if you stick to pulling pond scum out of deeper, darker parts of the web instead of trying to tell people that left means right and up means down. Even the most brain addled of your kind can figure out what words mean if they ever chose to read them.
 
dad4 said:
The data is fine. You just need to not mix time frames.

A narrow delta window gets you a consistent 65-80% reduction across age groups. Kind of what team panic expected.

The narrow Omicron window puts it at a huge (79%) reduction for 65+, and a moderate ( 30-35%) reduction for 18-49 and 50-64. And almost no reduction at all for 12-17. 12%. I chose 1/9-1/16.

I have no idea what is behind the age dependency. It only shows up Omicron. You have very robust protection for 65+, and a minimal impact on 12-17. Same virus, same vaccine. Completely different results.

No sense in declaring a reason yet. Could be medical (vax works differently in kids?), or it could be environmental (transmission is different in crowded indoor places like schools?). Above my pay grade anyway.
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I'm not sure I follow the math, but that's on me. Nor do I believe breaking it out in time frames helps your argument. Clearly not for Omicron. For adults I think it has to do in part with age associated behavior. 65+ aren't generally in the workplace. 19-49 are in the workplace and more likely to be out in public, but most of all, more likely to be living with more housemates (roommates, children etc). Just way more points of exposure for that age group. Children are the wild card. Generally they are just less likely to get it overall, regardless of vaccination status. None of this changes the fact that the vaccinated get infected at a material rate, but I doubt its equal to the unvaccinated.

The reason I question the data, is because we all know that a lot of people tested negative (especially since Xmas) that didn't have any results recorded or reported. I think cases are grossly undercounted for both the vaccinated and unvaccinated. If you believe the vaccination prevents serious, treatment required, issues then I would imagine that the vaccinated have the most underreported cases.
 
watfly said:
I'm not sure I follow the math, but that's on me. For adults I think it has to do in part with age associated behavior. 65+ aren't generally in the workplace. 19-49 are in the workplace and more likely to be out in public, but most of all, more likely to be living with more housemates (roommates, children etc). Just way more points of exposure for that age group. Children are the wild card. Generally they are just less likely to get it overall, regardless of vaccination status. None of this changes that fact that the vaccinated get infected at a material rate, but I doubt its equal.

The reason I question the data, is because we all know that a lot of people tested negative (especially since Xmas) that didn't have any results recorded or reported. I think cases are grossly overcounted for both the vaccinated and unvaccinated. If you believe the vaccination prevents serious, treatment required, issues then I would imagine that the vaccinated have the most underreported cases.
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The reality doesn't jive with the models and graphs. I'm going with the reality.
 
GoldenGate said:
I understand why you and your friends don't want to talk about all the studies you cite to "support" the exact opposite of what they actually say. It's pretty humiliating for sure. I do like how you claimed that words don't mean what they mean because "cherry picking". Again, I think you'll get a lot more traction from your fellow nutters if you stick to pulling pond scum out of deeper, darker parts of the web instead of trying to tell people that left means right and up means down. Even the most brain addled of your kind can figure out what words mean if they ever chose to read them.
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okay buddy, how many different alias' do you really have @EOTL @dad4 @GoldenGate I am sure there is more...so defending your theories by responding to one of your own theories by a different alias, says something about you!!! I'm still waiting for your study regarding the spread of omicron, not some chart from the cdc...that is only calculated by those who are tested, usually in the hospital setting. Show me an actual case study, you won't find it. Good luck though

I'll tell you what we do have case studies about...the vaccine is becoming less effective from Delta to Omicro to the next variant. There are case studies about that
 
watfly said:
I'm not sure I follow the math, but that's on me. Nor do I believe breaking it out in time frames helps your argument. Clearly not for Omicron. For adults I think it has to do in part with age associated behavior. 65+ aren't generally in the workplace. 19-49 are in the workplace and more likely to be out in public, but most of all, more likely to be living with more housemates (roommates, children etc). Just way more points of exposure for that age group. Children are the wild card. Generally they are just less likely to get it overall, regardless of vaccination status. None of this changes the fact that the vaccinated get infected at a material rate, but I doubt its equal to the unvaccinated.

The reason I question the data, is because we all know that a lot of people tested negative (especially since Xmas) that didn't have any results recorded or reported. I think cases are grossly undercounted for both the vaccinated and unvaccinated. If you believe the vaccination prevents serious, treatment required, issues then I would imagine that the vaccinated have the most underreported cases.
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I didn’t break it out to support my argument. I broke it out to understand it. The original time frame mixed apples and machine parts. You couldn’t understand anything from that.

If anything, the age dependency makes me doubt school vaccine mandates. It’s one thing to mandate an 80-90% effective vaccine in order to protect the community. That argument falls apart if it is 12%. Not there yet, but more doubtful than I was.

If MN has mandatory school testing, then underreporting is a plausible explanation for the small reduction in school age cases. For youth, you are measuring total cases. For 50 year olds, you are measuring symptomatic cases. The vaccine could be working the same in both groups, but our testing is measuring different things.

The 35% reduction to incoming transmission is completely consistent with your experience. An hour in an enclosed conference room is apparently more than long enough to fill the room with aerosols and breathe them in. And, given that peak viral loads are unchanged, you may just have had the bad luck to schedule your meeting on your most contagious day.
 
soccersc said:
okay buddy, how many different alias' do you really have @EOTL @dad4 @GoldenGate I am sure there is more...so defending your theories by responding to one of your own theories by a different alias, says something about you!!! I'm still waiting for your study regarding the spread of omicron, not some chart from the cdc...that is only calculated by those who are tested, usually in the hospital setting. Show me an actual case study, you won't find it. Good luck though

I'll tell you what we do have case studies about...the vaccine is becoming less effective from Delta to Omicro to the next variant. There are case studies about that
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It’s simple. The vaccine has tiny microchips that control yiur brain. Both @GoldenGate and I are vaccinated, so our brains are controlled by the same space lasers.

@watfly got moderna, and that vaccine uses a different microchip. His brain is being controlled by a different Pharma overlord.

It’s all so simple. I’m kind of amazed you haven’t figured it out yet.

Don’t worry. The vaccine swat teams will be out soon, and then you’ll be one of us. If you’re lucky, you get to go for a ride in a black helicopter!
 
dad4 said:
I didn’t break it out to support my argument. I broke it out to understand it. The original time frame mixed apples and machine parts. You couldn’t understand anything from that.

If anything, the age dependency makes me doubt school vaccine mandates. It’s one thing to mandate an 80-90% effective vaccine in order to protect the community. That argument falls apart if it is 12%. Not there yet, but more doubtful than I was.

If MN has mandatory school testing, then underreporting is a plausible explanation for the small reduction in school age cases. For youth, you are measuring total cases. For 50 year olds, you are measuring symptomatic cases. The vaccine could be working the same in both groups, but our testing is measuring different things.

The 35% reduction to incoming transmission is completely consistent with your experience. An hour in an enclosed conference room is apparently more than long enough to fill the room with aerosols and breathe them in. And, given that peak viral loads are unchanged, you may just have had the bad luck to schedule your meeting on your most contagious day.
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I can buy 12% and 35% or thereabouts.
 
dad4 said:
It’s simple. The vaccine has tiny microchips that control yiur brain. Both @GoldenGate and I are vaccinated, so our brains are controlled by the same space lasers.

@watfly got moderna, and that vaccine uses a different microchip. His brain is being controlled by a different Pharma overlord.

It’s all so simple. I’m kind of amazed you haven’t figured it out yet.

Don’t worry. The vaccine swat teams will be out soon, and then you’ll be one of us. If you’re lucky, you get to go for a ride in a black helicopter!
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Have you found the case study yet? Crickets
 
GoldenGate said:
The alt right crowd can't handle it when others use their tactic of insulting people against them. It's no wonder their snowflakey children are too emotionally feeble to wear masks at school.

You do a disservice to everyone by trying to have honest conversation with people who are not willing to engage in honest conversation. It only gives them and others the impression that their beliefs and opinions are anything more than an absolute embarrassment and a joke. In the last few days you have seen: (1) the self-proclaimed "serious legal scholar" Grace T. cite a twitter post to support her anti-mask agenda, although the attached study attached related to the unique situation in Catalonia, Spain and, more importantly, acknowledged two American studies (which she blithely ignores of course) about America's situation which show that wearing masks substantially reduces transmission here; (2) clown boy soccersc citing an article he claims shows vaccines aren't important in schools, although the article itself says exactly the opposite (to which he rationalizes that his inability to understand what words mean is "cherry picking"), and although he ignores (yet again) your point and the fact that the study also undermines his anti-mask position (actual cherry picking in other words); (3) desert cactus claiming NZ is doing a terrible job with Covid-19 while AZ is going bigly great with policies that kill more people of Covid on a typical day than NZ has had die of Covid in two freakin' years; (4) multiple anti-vaxxers/maskers and conspiracy theorists minimizing studies that establish Covid-19 was not created in a Wuhan lab to reduce population, because they haven't been "peer reviewed", but who then turn around and cite twitter and Tik tok instead; (5) their blatantly racist anti-vax/mask friend claiming in another thread that the U.S. has 27 super, duper secret biological weapons plants in the Ukraine where they're also hiding Hillary's emails about her et lasagna recipe; and (6) all of them conveniently ignoring their biggest anti-vax/mask proponents crush and the racist, who remind everyone daily which side has the whackadoos.

Some day you will understand that you can't reason with people like this. Humiliating them is the only way to get them to take off their viking hats and face paint, and resign themselves to staying in their lane, which is the (intellectually) slow one.
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such a warrior. glad you are on the front lines.
 
dad4 said:
Not your research assistant.

Try evil goalie's chart. It has half of what you need.
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Don’t kid yourself..if you could find it you would have posted it. I find it interesting that during Delta you could find multiple studies showing how the unvaccinated spread the virus at a much more rapid pace, they were actually calling it the virus of the unvaccinated. But now, after Omicron, sidedly no case studies or research showing how unvaccinated and vaccinated spread the virus? Hmmm

They know they can’t post a study like that. If the transition rate is the same for vaccinated and unvaccinated they lose a big big arguement on mandated vaccination.
 
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