Good News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
Since we’ve been in this revised/updated STAY AT home order for about 3 weeks now, why are cases still flying high? I mean, no outdoor sports, no outdoor dining, kids haven’t been in school....we are 4 weeks past ThanksGiving........why is LA still skyrocketing?
Better yet, why didn’t Newsome do anything to push to prepare excess capacity for Hospitals and ICU’s (including staffing)? I mean, they’ve been talking about a Holiday spike since
July. They were able to build out make shift triage’s at almost every hospital in CA back in March and did it in record time, why not plan ahead when you know it’s coming?
Better yet, why didn’t Newsome do anything to push to prepare excess capacity for Hospitals and ICU’s (including staffing)? I mean, they’ve been talking about a Holiday spike since
July. They were able to build out make shift triage’s at almost every hospital in CA back in March and did it in record time, why not plan ahead when you know it’s coming?
notintheface
GOLD
1 million people in the US vaccinated so far:
100 million more orders of the Pfizer vaccine:
www.newsweek.com
Enough supply for everyone to get it by June. Assume Moderna availability, and Oxford approval and availability, and we really could see a late March/early-April timeframe.
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
covid.cdc.gov
100 million more orders of the Pfizer vaccine:
U.S. Aiming for All Americans to Get Vaccine By June With New Pfizer Order
The U.S. has purchased enough doses of coronavirus vaccines to innoculate 200 million people by summer, just shy of the 70 percent needed to achieve herd immunity.
www.newsweek.com
Enough supply for everyone to get it by June. Assume Moderna availability, and Oxford approval and availability, and we really could see a late March/early-April timeframe.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Agree. At the very least, the next "spike" will be a small one in terms of cases and even smaller in terms of deaths assuming the vaccines are effective in the older age groups. There's no reason to believe otherwise at this point.
Cases are showing signs of a peak. Unfortunately, three big states - CA, TX and FL are still trending up. That's a lot to overcome nationally. It's looking like a plateau now until those states level off a bit. I'm guessing we start heading down by the end of the first week in January - maybe earlier unless we get some sort of bump at Christmas.
Hüsker Dü
DA
The Christmas/New Years surge will come in a couple weeks. It will get much worse before it gets any better.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Much worse? Maybe. Airports had the heaviest travel day of the year yesterday. Based on the graphs of the states, there is little indication that states got much worse after Thanksgiving. In many states, there was a bump up, but the trend after Thanksgiving was pretty consistent with the trend prior to Thanksgiving.
Studies suggest 4 vitamins to lower risk of severe cases of COVID-19
Dr. Peter Osborne offers advice on how to take in the vitamins you need to help fight and prevent COVID-19.
Not sure where to put this. But it didn't read like Bad News.
https://news.emory.edu/stories/2021/01/coronavirus_endemic_future/index.html
https://news.emory.edu/stories/2021/01/coronavirus_endemic_future/index.html
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Definitely good news, @dean. Thanks for sharing. We have had a dearth of good news lately.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Ok, my "Good News" is really just a different perspective that we don't typically see in the news. It's also something @Desert Hound posted a while back. While the vaccine rollout is going slower than desired, the effect on the rate of death will happen quickly where states focus on vaccinating the older population. This "surge" already appears to be well past the apex for infections and even for deaths/day. Add that to a significant proportion of the older population already getting vaccines and we are headed in the right direction quickly.
Think you are right. The IFR is going to drop to the equivalent of a bad flu season within a couple months even with some states like CA and NY dragging its feet with the elderly.
On the other side of the ledger though you have a system which is entirely built into cases (though the WHO might help with that with the new advice that just came out), kids vaccines no where on the horizon, mass vaccination of the non-elderly held up until we get either the AZ or JJ vaccines approved, a Biden task force heavily focused on prolockdowners, and health advisers that want to be masked up and restricted until 2022 at the earliest. Also, because those children vaccines won't be here any time soon, and because the "experimental" label won't be removed from the vaccine any time soon, the COVID cases aren't disappearing any time soon (they'll floor over the summer and then we'll experience outbreaks in the fall/winter again).
The actual emergency will be all but over in the next 2-3 months. From there on out everything is just plain political.
Desert Hound
DA
This needs to happen nationwide. Focus on the actual at risk people first.
The elderly account for 70-80% of all the deaths. Take care of them, and this thing will be over effectively speaking.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Yes. States like FL and TX will be back to near normal in no time, but CA? I think it will be a while.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I remember the "bad press" FL got for having long lines of old folks to get the vaccine. Looks like we'd be better off in CA if we'd have done the same.
This is largely due to politics, though....not the vaccine. Florida is pretty much back to semi-normal anyway...the step to near normal is short for them....California has a long way to go before we even get to semi-normal, and from the look of the city these days it might be years before we achieve pre-pandemic normality, if ever. I also point out that all this self-flagellation has gotten us pretty much bubkis....despite mask mandates, curfews, lockdowns, no outdoor dining, and kids out of school, we still for a period of time have had a worst-in-the-country outbreak.
Further to this, the attached article is way over the top but it hit on a core truth. And if we did this for COVID, what's going to happen the next time we get a new bad flu strain. The emergency will be over in a couple months...100 days max. The question then is do we reject the ideology of destruction, or do we let it rule our lives forever more. That's political.
Lockdown: The New Totalitarianism | The Daily Economy
"The lockdowns are looking less like a gigantic error and more like the unfolding of a fanatical political ideology and policy experiment that attacks ...
www.aier.org
I'm thinking we can reopen everything by May, with cases dropping dramatically by end of March. US has administered 18.4 million doses. Biden plans on another 100 million in the next 100 days. Kids under 16 don't get the shot, that is another 70 million. Another 25 million already had covid(this number is probably much greater). 1/4 the population will choose not to get the shot. 80 million. Add it all up and we have close to 300 million by end of April.
Since this is good news, my dad and stepmom had their first shots last week, my mom gets hers this Saturday. In-laws shortly. They are all in the 75+ category.
Since this is good news, my dad and stepmom had their first shots last week, my mom gets hers this Saturday. In-laws shortly. They are all in the 75+ category.
Great news for your folks! My folks got theirs last week too (MDs).
Here's some other real good news. Am hearing from my pharma friend they expect the J&J EU authorization in the next 2-3 weeks.
I agree both cases and deaths will drop dramatically by March (in part because of seasonality and in part because of the vaccine and as dad points out in part because so many people have had it). Your math though isn't 100% correct. The kids under 16 and the 1/4 who have chosen not to get the shot don't really count since they will be still spreading COVID among themselves. The people who have already had it also may or may not count (because they are vaccinating them anyway, which is dumb, there's some overlap with the vaccinated...some of them also fall in the kid category). Then there's the issue of length of immunity/mutations...my son had it back in March....does he count?....we don't have a firm idea yet. Finally, it takes 2 shots to make that fully effective and those need to be spread more than a month so we aren't reaching (even with the J&J vaccine which is easier to admin) max voluntary immunity among those authorized until May (though someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think J&J is 1 dose)
But ultimately for California the issue is going to be that we are still going to have cases over March. Not a ton of them like we do now but enough that it will disrupt life. If you get a COVID positive kid, your school and your sports teams are still going to be shut down. If you get one at work, they'll still make everyone test (including stupidly those that have had the 2nd dose of the vaccine). They'll still be the horror stories of the 40 year old struck down in the prime of life. The teachers unions are setting it up that schools can't be fully reopened until the kids are vaccinated (which for under 12 isn't looking until 2022 and which won't be mandated until the EU label is removed). California will still force you to wear a mask. Disneyland will still be closed (prob summer) and mass sporting event with spectators not allowed. No tournaments or away camps this summer.
The case levels are sensitive enough that it's really really very hard to get to orange and yellow zones and remember there's still no green. In some low pop counties a handful of cases are enough to kick you into the orange.
"Open" everything is therefore a political question. It won't happen as long as Newsom and his team doesn't change his thinking and the standards are still geared to cases. If you live in Texas and Florida, yes absolutely.
Good news everyone. OC is now down to 500 new cases. The WHO just admitted their testing grossly overstates individuals for testing positive for the Rona and grossly overstates mortality rate. Oh my and oh dear all in one 
I read the news this morning and it looks like places in NY, Chicago are going to open for business. I'm sure by March 4th all will be well. Let's just go back to "the way we were." Maybe we should just pick up where we left off 3/11/20 and just pretend nothing just happen right in front of our eyes and ears? Nothing really happen and this was just one insane long acid trip or some like to say, "A journey of a lifetime." I've learned so much about myself and want I really want on this planet.
I read the news this morning and it looks like places in NY, Chicago are going to open for business. I'm sure by March 4th all will be well. Let's just go back to "the way we were." Maybe we should just pick up where we left off 3/11/20 and just pretend nothing just happen right in front of our eyes and ears? Nothing really happen and this was just one insane long acid trip or some like to say, "A journey of a lifetime." I've learned so much about myself and want I really want on this planet. kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Definitely good news here. CA 7-day average is down almost 1/3 in 9 days.
