Blues COVID email

Grace T. said:
It is if you are wedded to a fixed number, because short of Australia nothing else has worked in the world. If you are on team mitigate (which both you and I seem to be, even if we disagree on the scope of the mitigation steps and what works), then you are doing a cost benefit analysis for every intervention in the hopes of reducing things on the margins, knowing if you compare Peru and Brazil it may not be enough to do anything.

The hypothetical I bring up all the time.....masks (y). There's split scientific evidence over whether they work but there's been no study definitively showing they do anything with coronavirus. Masks have failed to bend any of the curves anywhere (though arguably they may have stopped them from peaking too high in certain areas of the world). There's no correlation between how well places have done and mask orders. There's a split of scientific consensus on them. Much like my position on HDQ, I say use em, but only indoors and make exceptions for the very young and ideally give everyone really good masks. Why? The cost (z) is (some minimal intrusiveness, cost of manufacturing in the scheme of things is small if there is some benefit however minimal, so long as we aren't kicking off screaming babies from AirCanada flights or tormenting Downs or autistic people), the benefit (x) is unknown but there's some evidence there may be some, particularly indoors particularly if we use good masks....enough to overcome the cost at least indoors not out....what's the harm at least until it's proven definitively otherwise that they really have no benefit whatsoever. But also everyone wear a mask for 4, 8 12 weeks and the virus will be gone is not a realistic policy and not one worth aiming at particularly at the cost of young children and the severely handicapped.

The other question is how far you willing to go to enforce your no indoor gatherings? 10 years in prison, 1 year, $100,000 fine, $1000 fine, turn off power, deploy the military to forcefully disperse?
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Who said anything about 10 years in prison? Violations of public health orders seems more like a speeding ticket to me.

The insane exaggerations just makes it hard to take you seriously. Kind of like your persistent mask-doubting position that seems stuck in late March.
 
dad4 said:
Who said anything about 10 years in prison? Violations of public health orders seems more like a speeding ticket to me.

The insane exaggerations just makes it hard to take you seriously. Kind of like your persistent mask-doubting position that seems stuck in late March.
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Well if you are going to slap them on the wrist at this point it won't do anything to deter people considering an ever increasing amount of people are joining team reality and taking the red pill. They don't do anything to slow people on the freeways either.
 
Grace T. said:
At this point I really think you are my son trolling me because I gave him a hard time about algebra. I keep telling him something doesn't make sense and he keeps insisting that it does. If that's you, you have a practice test you are supposed to finish for tomorrow, so what are doing on the internets?
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I don't understand why you are afraid to say the number of people you are okay with dying in order to open up the economy. This is not a hard question.
 
NorCalDad said:
Agreed. It's just that everything I've seen has been debunked pseudoscience that's akin to anti-vaxxer rhetoric.
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Next time I come across the thread I'll PM it to you. Basically it amounts to there being no evidence besides statistical and observational studies that both sides can marshall because its impossible and unethical right now to do a controlled study on the issue.
 
Grace T. said:
Well if you are going to slap them on the wrist at this point it won't do anything to deter people considering an ever increasing amount of people are joining team reality and taking the red pill. They don't do anything to slow people on the freeways either.
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Speeding tickets work. You have no idea how fast we'd drive without them.

The pill analogy is still insulting, by the way. Similar to how the left uses "woke". Either phrase implies that anyone who disagrees with you must not be a conscious and sentient creature.

Why not just use Plato's cave, and suggest that we all should be dragged into the light? Then we can argue about who sees reality and who is seeing only shadows on the wall.
 
dad4 said:
The pill analogy is still insulting, by the way. Similar to how the left uses "woke". Either phrase implies that anyone who disagrees with you must not be a conscious and sentient creature.
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Practically no one in SoCal drives the speed limit. I tend to drive 5-10 miles over it and I'm practically a slowpoke on the lanes. The threat of a ticket doesn't do very much. What does hold down people from driving 80 is that they'll be charged wih reckless driving which isn't a ticketing offense...drive fast enough and you go to jail. It's not the ticket which is dissuading people.

The analogy doesn't really apply to you. You've shown yourself to be a thoughtful person even if we disagree but we tend to disagree more on the margins and reasons for doing things than in the actual approach. The blue pillers are the ones still under the illusion they can control the thing (as opposed to just mitigating it), irrespective of the costs. It also drives them nuts when you point that out because they don't want to see it and will do anything possible for psychological reasons to avoid looking at it.
 
Grace T. said:
Practically no one in SoCal drives the speed limit. I tend to drive 5-10 miles over it and I'm practically a slowpoke on the lanes. The threat of a ticket doesn't do very much. What does hold down people from driving 80 is that they'll be charged wih reckless driving which isn't a ticketing offense...drive fast enough and you go to jail. It's not the ticket which is dissuading people.

The analogy doesn't really apply to you. You've shown yourself to be a thoughtful person even if we disagree but we tend to disagree more on the margins and reasons for doing things than in the actual approach. The blue pillers are the ones still under the illusion they can control the thing (as opposed to just mitigating it), irrespective of the costs. It also drives them nuts when you point that out because they don't want to see it and will do anything possible for psychological reasons to avoid looking at it.
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Must be that I'm one of those Berkeley hippies. Cant risk the fuzz pulling me and Zonker over: they might find my stash. The tiny little engine on the microbus won't get up to 80 mph anyway.
 
NorCalDad said:
I wouldn't be so sure about that:

www.boston.com

A Massachusetts teenager tested positive for COVID-19. His parents sent him to school anyway.

Six students tested positive for COVID-19 days before Attleboro High School reopened its doors for the first day of school this week. Only five of them stayed home, the city’s mayor told WJAR. The parents of the sixth student who tested positive sent him to class anyway, the mayor said. Now, 28...
www.boston.com

I'm pretty sure @Grace T. pointed this out at some point somewhere that the incentives are bit whacky right now.

I still don't get why we're not focusing on outdoor activities first. I mean I get it...capitalism and all.
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Fair enough...you can’t fix stupid.
 
notintheface said:
I don't understand why you are afraid to say the number of people you are okay with dying in order to open up the economy. This is not a hard question.
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Zero if possible. But it isn't. But you would also have to consider how many deaths occur because the economy isn't open. What would be a good number for you?

COVID-related hunger could kill more people than the virus | UN Global Compact

unglobalcompact.org unglobalcompact.org

www.oxfamamerica.org

12,000 people could die each day from hunger linked to COVID-19

Mass unemployment, disruption to food production and supplies, and declining aid are behind the growing hunger numbers.
www.oxfamamerica.org www.oxfamamerica.org

www.npr.org

U.N. Warns Number Of People Starving To Death Could Double Amid Pandemic

Some 700 million of the world's most vulnerable people will require food assistance, according to the U.N. humanitarian office, which is asking wealthy nations to commit $90 billion in aid.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
 
socalkdg said:
Zero if possible. But it isn't. But you would also have to consider how many deaths occur because the economy isn't open. What would be a good number for you?
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That's probably more of argument for continued stimulus initiatives vs opening up the economy. I think there are other issues that could make a stronger argument.
 
Grace T. said:
Next time I come across the thread I'll PM it to you. Basically it amounts to there being no evidence besides statistical and observational studies that both sides can marshall because its impossible and unethical right now to do a controlled study on the issue.
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Nonsense.
 
EOTL said:
IKR? She says it’s basic math, yet she can’t do it.
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Science is hard. It requires years of education, then more years of hard work, sometimes with expensive equipment (some of which the scientist must invent as needed), all subject to review and criticism by others who legitimately understand what you are doing.

Denial, on the other hand, only requires a pen (or, nowadays, a keyboard).
 
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