Return to Play & Practice

[Keepermom2]

I'm truly sorry. My mother in law has diabetes and asthma. She stays home and that's ok and she's ok with that. My sister in law does all the errands. I posted an English paper my dd wrote and posted it on here about her friends sister hanging herself from a tree. I also know of "pressure cooker suicide" that many teens did because some felt pressure to perform in our society and how one has to be a perfect student, top soccer player, stay out of trouble, get highest SAT, study, no social life because and coaches who screamed their asses off and blamed some GKs for the loss. Or, the girl who missed her PK and the team lost and the coach told her to work on her PKs next time so we wont lose. Look, were just going to go round and round and round. I personally believe this virus has been over played for obvious reasons, especially for the healthy among us. I'm not trying to be cocky. I was born deaf and my birth mother had some other plans for me and my adopted mother talked her out of it. Because of that decision to keep me for 5 more months in her womb, you and I get to chat online. Now that is a cool story and its true, unless my mom was mixing up my story with one of the other 8 kids she adopted.

Wow...that was a vulnerable share and no one knows the challenges you have faced except you. You are very tenacious just like my oldest who has suffered because of her early years and the arduous task of not fitting in and being labeled. I tell her all of the time I am in awe of her and I stand in awe of you.

Suicide among teens is a horrible problem for the very reasons you stated but I am not sure COVID is causing the suicides among teenagers and I haven't done any research on it which is why I asked for the specific research related to COVID and teenagers. I don't like the fact that people (not necessarily you) use it as justification for kids playing soccer. I think that is a misuse of a very serious issue but I really don't know because I haven't researched it and people throw it around without any facts to support it.

 

[Keepermom2]

Thank you, governor, for your daily update....now back to my bunker

My update is better than his. LOL

 

[PruritusAniFC]

All drills and no scrimmage (or any sort of SSG) makes for a bored soccer player.

......

 

[Ellejustus]

Wow...that was a vulnerable share and no one knows the challenges you have faced except you. You are very tenacious just like my oldest who has suffered because of her early years and the arduous task of not fitting in and being labeled. I tell her all of the time I am in awe of her and I stand in awe of you.

Suicide among teens is a horrible problem for the very reasons you stated but I am not sure COVID is causing the suicides among teenagers and I haven't done any research on it which is why I asked for the specific research related to COVID and teenagers. I don't like the fact that people (not necessarily you) use it as justification for kids playing soccer. I think that is a misuse of a very serious issue but I really don't know because I haven't researched it and people throw it around without any facts to support it.

Suicide been here for a long time. Let's not forget Judas. The thing that has Drs puzzled is so many teens are killing themselves. More now so i'm thinking Corona just adds another layer that is impossible to peal and they OD on heroin, booze or pain pills they steal from their mom or dad. Once someone has no purpose on earth ((that's what some Drs think)) they kill themselves.

 

[Keepermom2]

The CFR continues to fall and is now below what we consider epidemic proportions.

The hospitalization number is a bit off. What's happening now is that everyone who goes into the hospital is being tested for COVID (our testing in many areas is now that good....they aren't doing that in Germany yet). So if you are going into delivery and you come back with a positive test, you are put down as hospitalized with COVID. That's not the number to look at. The number to look at is ICU capacity.

I predicted several weeks ago that LA will be in a slow burn throughout the summer. I'm was right about that. We are at about the half way mark right now in LA is my guess.

It doesn't matter if they are in the hospital for a hang nail, the reality is they are in a hospital bed and hospitalizations are going up. Hospitalizations are one of the key numbers to look at because 1. It has the least amount of variables that can distort the picture and 2. Hospitalizations is what drives decisions (i.e. various lock down levels to diminish over capacity). When I calculate reaching capacity, I do not even consider people in the hospital without COVID which would make the situation worse. If you have 6,034 hosptial beds available, and you are increasing the number of beds filled by 27% per week (this is approximately the % increase we have been running per week), you reach 6,000 people in a hospital bed the last week in August that are confirm or suspected without consideration of people that are in the hospital for any other illness.

	Tuesday July 7, 2020		Tuesday June 30, 2020		Week Change
	Confirmed	Suspected	Total People in a Hospital Bed		Confirmed	Suspected	Total		# Change	% Change
Hospitalizations	659​	180​	839​		542​	120​	662​		177​	27%​
ICU	224​	26​	250​		192​	20​	212​		38​	18%​

 

[dad4]

p.s. it's a myth that everyone in Europe wears a mask. Their mask usage is actually about on par as ours and some of the lightest hit countries don't require them. Germany itself is a mish mosh of mask usage and no mask usage. They certainly help, but it's becoming evident the surgical masks, bandanas and most cloth masks do very little (like stopping mosquistos with a chain link fence) and if we wanted a solid mask program the government should be handing out at least high quality cloth masks or better grade. From the early studies, particuarly in Germany, they might help about 40%. Helpful, not great.

The Jena study was pretty clear that masks slowed the spread considerably.

A 40% reduction in Rt is huge. The current surge would not exist at all if our Rt were 40% lower.

 

[Grace T.]

It doesn't matter if they are in the hospital for a hang nail, the reality is they are in a hospital bed and hospitalizations are going up. Hospitalizations are one of the key numbers to look at because 1. It has the least amount of variables that can distort the picture and 2. Hospitalizations is what drives decisions (i.e. various lock down levels to diminish over capacity). When I calculate reaching capacity, I do not even consider people in the hospital without COVID which would make the situation worse. If you have 6,034 hosptial beds available, and you are increasing the number of beds filled by 27% per week (this is approximately the % increase we have been running per week), you reach 6,000 people in a hospital bed the last week in August that are confirm or suspected without consideration of people that are in the hospital for any other illness.

	Tuesday July 7, 2020		Tuesday June 30, 2020		Week Change
	Confirmed	Suspected	Total People in a Hospital Bed		Confirmed	Suspected	Total		# Change	% Change
Hospitalizations	659​	180​	839​		542​	120​	662​		177​	27%​
ICU	224​	26​	250​		192​	20​	212​		38​	18%​

Here's an La County fun fact. La County just completed a census of available hospital beds. It's census showed fewer hospital beds in use than the equivalent time in 2019. Part of that is hospitals expanded beds in anticipation of COVID. Another is that people are deferring some procedures out of fear of catching COVID (one of my nurse friends just got laid off of her lypo job for example). But under that metric, your own figures aren't useful

You are assuming exponential growth that goes on forever. Even Sweden didn't show that. And LA isn't Sweden...many businesses are still shut, there's a mask requirement, kids aren't playing soccer (at least not legally). All the models that predicted the worst were completely wrong....and SoCal and NorCal have had similar patterns and similar shutdown with the same governor, yet there are different results. What's to account for that? Well the waves are rigid...they are mathematically....you just have to go through a certain amount and there's very very little anyone can do about it.

 

[watfly]

Thank you, governor, for your daily update....now back to my bunker

Wait...I've been out of state for 5 days. Newsom banned singing in church while I was gone? WTF, I'm agnostic and I think its completely absurd.

 

[Edouble]

Came here for recent info on the topic, ended up reading about teen suicide.... k den

 

[Ellejustus]

Here's an La County fun fact. La County just completed a census of available hospital beds. It's census showed fewer hospital beds in use than the equivalent time in 2019. Part of that is hospitals expanded beds in anticipation of COVID. Another is that people are deferring some procedures out of fear of catching COVID (one of my nurse friends just got laid off of her lypo job for example). But under that metric, your own figures aren't useful

You are assuming exponential growth that goes on forever. Even Sweden didn't show that. And LA isn't Sweden...many businesses are still shut, there's a mask requirement, kids aren't playing soccer (at least not legally). All the models that predicted the worst were completely wrong....and SoCal and NorCal have had similar patterns and similar shutdown with the same governor, yet there are different results. What's to account for that? Well the waves are rigid...they are mathematically....you just have to go through a certain amount and there's very very little anyone can do about it.

My friends a nurse. She told me she has a nurse friend ((go figure)) that just got laid off too. I think it was dental cosmetics field but it wasnt the ER that's for sure. She figures it better to stay home with her kids and teach them school. Her and her husband are moving to Tennessee. No joke!!! She gets $4100 a month and stays safe. She said theirs a job opening in LA at one of the hospitals but she would only make $1200 more a month and risk catching the disease and seeing all that suffering was not worth it. All these front line folks are the big risk takers imo. The true heros.

 

[Grace T.]

The Jena study was pretty clear that masks slowed the spread considerably.

A 40% reduction in Rt is huge. The current surge would not exist at all if our Rt were 40% lower.

That's in ideal conditions and 40% is useful, but it's really not great, particularly given we aren't using the right masks, and when we do there are lots of noses peaking out or people taking it off to have a conversation.

Our biggest problem in the US is private gatherings. Because people don't go to restaurants or out, but still want to socialize, not to mention all the deferred weddings, wakes and worship services, or pre-protest parties, or graduation parties, or the teens we mentioned previously, they are gathering at homes. People aren't wearing masks at these private gatherings. Otherwise LA has had a mask order in place how long now? Yet, per keepermom, the situation is still out of control? Simple....the main driver is private gatherings.

Swinging back to soccer it means that restrictions on youth sports will be counter productive. That means the only thing that's going to happen is they'll go underground, without any regulations or restrictions.

 

[The Outlaw *BANNED*]

Wait...I've been out of state for 5 days. Newsom banned singing in church while I was gone? WTF, I'm agnostic and I think its completely absurd.

Just do what I did growing up... mouth the words and hope the hour is up soon.

 

[Keepermom2]

Here's an La County fun fact. La County just completed a census of available hospital beds. It's census showed fewer hospital beds in use than the equivalent time in 2019. Part of that is hospitals expanded beds in anticipation of COVID. Another is that people are deferring some procedures out of fear of catching COVID (one of my nurse friends just got laid off of her lypo job for example). But under that metric, your own figures aren't useful

You are assuming exponential growth that goes on forever. Even Sweden didn't show that. And LA isn't Sweden...many businesses are still shut, there's a mask requirement, kids aren't playing soccer (at least not legally). All the models that predicted the worst were completely wrong....and SoCal and NorCal have had similar patterns and similar shutdown with the same governor, yet there are different results. What's to account for that? Well the waves are rigid...they are mathematically....you just have to go through a certain amount and there's very very little anyone can do about it.

COVID has already shown to not operate in flows because it isn't like the flu where it dies off in the summer. I think Texas and Arizona has already proved that along with Mexico. 3 weeks at 30% or above weekly increase is an indicator that if there is no change in the R factor, than we will have a problem. I said that if we continued at the rate we were, you would see various levels of shut down be put back in place. The only way at this point to lower the R factor, is to put various levels of shut down in place.

SoCal and NorCal does not have similar patterns at all!!! Look at the graphs on the State website. Nor Cal just opened up hair salons last week and dining opened later than us as well.

This doesn't look like "slow burn" in LA. They are at 2004 confirmed hospitalizations and 666 suspected right now.

 

[Grace T.]

The Jena study was pretty clear that masks slowed the spread considerably.

A 40% reduction in Rt is huge. The current surge would not exist at all if our Rt were 40% lower.

BTW, here's the counter that shows the limited utility of masks: Japan. Japan has a long history of universal mask wearing. Unlike our society, they aren't removing them for discussions or wearing them under their nose. They aren't using bandanas. Everyone said in June that Japan shows what universal mask wearing can do. But Japan is undergoing a second mini wave (because their first wasn't very much, and their wave like ours seems to be taking place where previously did not have outbreaks leading credence to the waves are rigid and you just have to go through them theory). If masks were the magic bullet, the numbers shouldn't be rising in Japan. But it's getting warm there and people are going indoors and like us aren't always wearing their masks when they around with a friend inside. So what happens, they get a little mini wave which shouldn't be possible if masks were such a magic bullet.

Don't get me wrong. I think masks do mitigate things. If I were emperor I would put in place a mask program so every American had a mask better than a surgical math, cloth masks, or bandana. But then I probably wouldn't have done premature lockdowns or sent COVID positive patients back into nursing homes, and I'd probably hard shut the southern border. Beyond that nothing much has made a material impact.

 

[Grace T.]

The only way at this point to lower the R factor, is to put various levels of shut down in place.

What you've basically said is that nothing we can do will lower the R factor at this point. We agree on something at least.

The reason why is because restaurants aren't the primary driver of this thing right now. It's the illicit gatherings taking place (bars are also a factor...I would have shut the bars too if I were the governor, as well as indoor gyms, but I would have let distanced soccer go on for now). The reason you can't put the genii back in the bottle is because of the protests....the protests basically convinced a lot of young people they should just go out and have at it. Nothing the governor can do at this point is going to put that genii back in the bottle, so he's left with got to do something let's do stupid things like keep schools partially closed or ban youth sports. Short of enacting a police state where the police raid and shut down any gatherings of people greater than 2, there's not a whole lot that can be done. If you don't allow club soccer, it's just going to go underground.

The other major driver is the southern border. The zip codes along the Mexican border have had a substantial amount of cases more than those outside of it. Considering the D hostility towards shutting the border, and at this point that the people crossing the border are largely US citizens or people with work permission, there's not much to be done there either.

 

[Ellejustus]

Just do what I did growing up... mouth the words and hope the hour is up soon.

I;m just trying to have a little fun under these intense circumstances were all under so please dont hate me if your a Mormon. I was and i was forced to go. They had this song when you brought a friend. I took a few pals to the Laguna location and no one would come back with me. By the time I was 15, my sweet mother said the best things ever, "Your old enough now if you dont want to go you dont have to go. However, you will miss Bobs Big Boy lunch after." I love the combo with hot fudge cake. So I went once a month until my mom finally was the last one to stop going. I'm sorry, but no coke and all day church on Sundays was too much. The people seemed nice. I was scared to death that I would have to go knock on doors for two years. With my speech problems that was going to be one hell of a adventure I was not willing to endure for Mr Smith and his pal Brigham. I could sing without stutterring so I think it would have been something like this

 

[Keepermom2]

Here's an La County fun fact. La County just completed a census of available hospital beds. It's census showed fewer hospital beds in use than the equivalent time in 2019. Part of that is hospitals expanded beds in anticipation of COVID. Another is that people are deferring some procedures out of fear of catching COVID (one of my nurse friends just got laid off of her lypo job for example). But under that metric, your own figures aren't useful

You are assuming exponential growth that goes on forever. Even Sweden didn't show that. And LA isn't Sweden...many businesses are still shut, there's a mask requirement, kids aren't playing soccer (at least not legally). All the models that predicted the worst were completely wrong....and SoCal and NorCal have had similar patterns and similar shutdown with the same governor, yet there are different results. What's to account for that? Well the waves are rigid...they are mathematically....you just have to go through a certain amount and there's very very little anyone can do about it.

Notice the top 5 counties for hospitalizations are all Southern Cal. Also note, no flows going on and only up up up after the impact from opening so fast started.

 

[Keepermom2]

What you've basically said is that nothing we can do will lower the R factor at this point. We agree on something at least.

The reason why is because restaurants aren't the primary driver of this thing right now. It's the illicit gatherings taking place (bars are also a factor...I would have shut the bars too if I were the governor, as well as indoor gyms, but I would have let distanced soccer go on for now). The reason you can't put the genii back in the bottle is because of the protests....the protests basically convinced a lot of young people they should just go out and have at it. Nothing the governor can do at this point is going to put that genii back in the bottle, so he's left with got to do something let's do stupid things like keep schools partially closed or ban youth sports. Short of enacting a police state where the police raid and shut down any gatherings of people greater than 2, there's not a whole lot that can be done. If you don't allow club soccer, it's just going to go underground.

The other major driver is the southern border. The zip codes along the Mexican border have had a substantial amount of cases more than those outside of it. Considering the D hostility towards shutting the border, and at this point that the people crossing the border are largely US citizens or people with work permission, there's not much to be done there either.

No I didn't say that. I said we have to do something to lower the R factor. The problem is, we do not contact trace so we have no idea what is contributing to the significant increases so we could isolate those activities. It could be protests, it could be bars open, it could be people not wearing masks, it could be social gatherings, it could be socializing at home etc. We have no data showing what is causing it and they are shooting in the dark so to speak and waiting to see if there is a change. Youth sports is easy for them to say no to with no logical reasoning. I think it is that simple.

There is no evidence patients from Imperial County have been transported to OC.

I don't believe the answer is open everything up and do nothing until we are at 90% capacity like Arizona and Texas such that they will have to shut down soon. I would rather have piece meal shut downs than complete shut down again. That is better for the economy.

 

[watfly]

COVID has already shown to not operate in flows because it isn't like the flu where it dies off in the summer. I think Texas and Arizona has already proved that along with Mexico. 3 weeks at 30% or above weekly increase is an indicator that if there is no change in the R factor, than we will have a problem. I said that if we continued at the rate we were, you would see various levels of shut down be put back in place. The only way at this point to lower the R factor, is to put various levels of shut down in place.

SoCal and NorCal does not have similar patterns at all!!! Look at the graphs on the State website. Nor Cal just opened up hair salons last week and dining opened later than us as well.

This doesn't look like "slow burn" in LA. They are at 2004 confirmed hospitalizations and 666 suspected right now.
View attachment 8065

That's funny because the graph is already off by around 500 beds as of today based on their estimate of most likely value (25% error) and is completely out of the red, which is the wide latitude they've given themselves in their prediction (whoever they are?).

 

[Keepermom2]

That's funny because the graph is already off by around 500 beds as of today based on their estimate of most likely value (25% error) and is completely out of the red, which is the wide latitude they've given themselves in their prediction (whoever they are?).

They are at 2,670 today (confirmed and suspected...they include both because the reality is they are in a hospital bed and most turn out to be confirmed). They are right where they predicted they would be. This chart was from LA Health.

 

[Grace T.]

No I didn't say that. I said we have to do something to lower the R factor. The problem is, we do not contact trace so we have no idea what is contributing to the significant increases so we could isolate those activities. It could be protests, it could be bars open, it could be people not wearing masks, it could be social gatherings, it could be socializing at home etc. We have no data showing what is causing it and they are shooting in the dark so to speak and waiting to see if there is a change. Youth sports is easy for them to say no to with no logical reasoning. I think it is that simple.

There is no evidence patients from Imperial County have been transported to OC.

I don't believe the answer is open everything up and do nothing until we are at 90% capacity like Arizona and Texas such that they will have to shut down soon. I would rather have piece meal shut downs than complete shut down again. That is better for the economy.

Well, re the border some people aren't stopping at imperial or San Diego county but coming up to LA. We don't know what percentage it is but it isn't insignificant. The highest confirmed cases over the weekend in San Diego were in the zip codes right along the Mexican border. Look at the numbers out of Yuma Arizona as well. It's not the only factor, but we know by this point it is definitely one of them.

I agree with you that the state should be doing more contact tracing to determine this. But instead we have what contact tracers we do have in the US being given stupid orders like don't ask people if they've attended protests. It's exactly this which contact tracing is useful for: where are the problem areas. It's not useful for determining apersons contacts and then if someone was riding on a subway putting 1000s of people into qurantine. We actually see eye to eye on this and this is actually how we should be constructing our contact tracing. Instead the left has wanted to immitate South Korea (which is impossible because Americans don't even return their phone call) and the right has said no. It's why California's contact tracing (in a blue state run by almost all blue politicians) is a disaster just as much as Texas'.