Huh? None of what you say is what I posted. Nothing at all.
Rents in the cities above are falling: Seattle's is falling in large part because they drastically streamlined the process to allow a building boom. Rents are down there due to supply and demand - they have increased supply a ton. Do you not know how that works? You think rents will go up if we build more? Uh... no.
The point is falling rents "can" be an early indicator of slowdown. Taken by themselves they are not a big deal, but something to watch as a trend is building (started in NYC about a year ago.)
Q3 growth is likely very strong. (see link)
I am not at all hoping for inflation, rising unemployment and higher interest rates.
This is the reality, however: We are in a very long recovery at this point. The tax break was designed to continue it, but it's an artificial bump (as were much of the bumps under Obama to get us out of the recession.) The question will be: how much have the bumps (and added debt) distorted the normal cycle. We'll see. But folks who think this goes on forever might be surprised. (Import taxes - tariffs - could take some of the air out, however, as they are taxes on consumers that to an extent offset the tax cuts, but hit a different segment of the demo.
We shall see, but I doubt growth continues past 2020 in almost any scenario. Big question is how big the slowdown is.
https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph...m=output&utm_content=data&utm_campaign=9426_1