I appreciate your explanation although just to be clear, I'm not coming at this from the angle of someone who doesn't understand the LOTG. I've been a referee for over 20 years and have officiated with hundreds of refs in both the UK and US, including professional and international teams.
Your points are all 'by the letter of law' which I understand and appreciate. As referees, we are allowed an element of discretion and opinion, otherwise we are robots. In my opinion, it would not be a red card based on the circumstances and I would have made the same decision in the live game at that speed, regardless of the replay we all watched. If you put the LOTG up in court and showed the video, you could argue a red card, sure. But you could equally argue a yellow.
I would suggest most experienced officials would give a yellow card in that situation but because it is not cut and dry, there will always be a difference of opinion. I respect yours.
Fine, and we have not really touched on the bigger issue that can't be addressed in 5 seconds of video, Game Management. We don't know what this Referee was dealing with with this particular player and/or the temperature of the game. Had the Referee warned the player previously? A teammate? Was this a pattern that had emerged on breakaways for this defensive line? What other nonsense may have been going on?
What I know from my experience is that "jersey pullers" tend to be the same players over and over. I'm constantly warning and talking to the same players.
I agree that 30 yards out for girls is on the edge of the DOGSO "Obvious" line, and it looked like the strikerhad control of the ball (in front of her), whether she would have been caught before her shot or not has some weight but is not dispositive. My ultimate problem here is the OP's belief that the trailing defenders should be considered at the time of the foul. If the OP was incensed because the foul occurred 35 yards from goal and the attacker was having trouble controlling the ball, then I think it becomes less obvious. But, this attacker was going to be on the 18 about a second later.