Stat Analysis: Most Girls DA Clubs without Prior ECNL Experience Struggling

rizzle said:
This is actually a topic I am surprised I don't hear more complaints about and wonder if there is any advocacy from the people who supposedly have any authority or involvement in the system that can have a voice in changing this. Is there legitimate concern that kids who will eventually be national team players won't be able to adapt to this if they didn't already have years of experience with the subbing rule in effect? And for the 06s, I fail to see the benefit of subjecting those girls to that rule their first year of academy AND their first year on a full size field (if implemented next year). Boys 12s last year did not for the youngest age group, if we see girls U13 emerge would love to see the same happen for them that we did the boys with the unlimited subbing. Hopefully there is someone that matters in the decision-making process that feels the same way.
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The rule only needs to be changed if clubs roster more than 15-16 girls. Clubs should stop rostering so many girls. It's not like we have that much talent to roster 14 teams, so why roster 14 teams with 20+ kids on a team. If the club is rostering that many girls, parents should move their kid elsewhere unless they know their kid will get big minutes.

The soccer is much, much better with the limited substitution rules. Maybe allow more dual rostering or make other changes, but keep the limited substitution rules.
 
rizzle said:
This is actually a topic I am surprised I don't hear more complaints about and wonder if there is any advocacy from the people who supposedly have any authority or involvement in the system that can have a voice in changing this. Is there legitimate concern that kids who will eventually be national team players won't be able to adapt to this if they didn't already have years of experience with the subbing rule in effect? And for the 06s, I fail to see the benefit of subjecting those girls to that rule their first year of academy AND their first year on a full size field (if implemented next year). Boys 12s last year did not for the youngest age group, if we see girls U13 emerge would love to see the same happen for them that we did the boys with the unlimited subbing. Hopefully there is someone that matters in the decision-making process that feels the same way.
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Agree 100%. This is the most asinine rule of all time. So the theory is that this makes the players get acclimated to the national team rules or FIFA rules or whatever. WRONG. A player is either ready to play a full 90 or not. Maybe they're only physically fit to play 25, 45, or 60. There is no strategy involved in this.

The strategy or acclimation is for the COACH to get used to figuring out his or her lineup according to the limitation of his or her roster. If this is truly for development, it's for the development of their soccer skills! At this point of their development, who gives a rats ass about how many times you go in and out of the lineup. Again, any strategy with limited substitution rules are for the coaches not the players.

And to MarkM's point, he's right, this wouldn't be an issue if rosters were kept to 15-16 players. With limited substitution, and rosters of 20+, it may be driving players out of DA to get more minutes elsewhere. But isn't TRAINING the most important point of DA? So if training is the most important aspect, have more flexible substitution rules so more players get more play time and stick with DA. Then you have the type of roster to get the most out of your training, which is most important for development at this point in their journeys.
 
Justafan said:
Agree 100%. This is the most asinine rule of all time. So the theory is that this makes the players get acclimated to the national team rules or FIFA rules or whatever. WRONG. A player is either ready to play a full 90 or not. Maybe they're only physically fit to play 25, 45, or 60. There is no strategy involved in this.

The strategy or acclimation is for the COACH to get used to figuring out his or her lineup according to the limitation of his or her roster. If this is truly for development, it's for the development of their soccer skills! At this point of their development, who gives a rats ass about how many times you go in and out of the lineup. Again, any strategy with limited substitution rules are for the coaches not the players.

And to MarkM's point, he's right, this wouldn't be an issue if rosters were kept to 15-16 players. With limited substitution, and rosters of 20+, it may be driving players out of DA to get more minutes elsewhere. But isn't TRAINING the most important point of DA? So if training is the most important aspect, have more flexible substitution rules so more players get more play time and stick with DA. Then you have the type of roster to get the most out of your training, which is most important for development at this point in their journeys.
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Funny. You think its the most asinine rule of all time. I think its the one real plus to the DA system over ECNL. Haven't you noticed the difference in style of play this year, especially in the last 7-10 minutes of each half? "The sub rules, where some guys run 15 players in and out in a game, allows people to press and just run bodies all game long at you. I’d like to change that, but there is resistance from other coaches – it’s a crutch. The fact is, if you can’t sub, you have to teach kids how to play the game.” https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/oct/05/american-college-soccer-substitutes-rule
 
MarkM said:
Funny. You think its the most asinine rule of all time. I think its the one real plus to the DA system over ECNL. Haven't you noticed the difference in style of play this year, especially in the last 7-10 minutes of each half? "The sub rules, where some guys run 15 players in and out in a game, allows people to press and just run bodies all game long at you. I’d like to change that, but there is resistance from other coaches – it’s a crutch. The fact is, if you can’t sub, you have to teach kids how to play the game.” https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/oct/05/american-college-soccer-substitutes-rule
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Excellent point, never thought of it this way. You're right, if they weren't playing to win and subbing in fresh bodies for the sake of fresh bodies to outlast you physically, then I may have a point. If DA is for development and not winning, then it shouldn't be a problem, but it appears to be. As you said, there is resistance from the coaches, I wonder why. Maybe the sub rules are the only way we can get away from the "press and run." Damn, I forgot we were in SoCal.

On a similar point, after watching the women's team at UNC for the last couple of years, I wondered why Anson Dorrance is so revered. He just figured it out first, recruit the best soccer athletes, and press and run all game long.
 
I think there is value to the DA substitution rule at least for the older girls. It allows girls to make mistakes during the game and learn from them since they coach can't freely sub. I believe it also allows for a more tactical and skillful game since the coach can't just keep rotating in fresh players and have them press the full 90 minutes. Endurance, technical skills and creativity all become a premium.

I do agree that it can create issues with teams with a large roster. At least the DA has the 25% start rule. I have seen a lot of SCDSL and CSL teams with a roster of 18 where 15-18 never start or get much playing time.
 
A friend told me their daughter was getting 6 mins a half on an 06 team that will be DA next year. It’s ludicrous to not be playing kids more now.
 
Sounds like a kid that won't make the DA program next year or she will be playing more under the DA rules. DA requires 25% starts for all players and with limited sub rules players tend to get decent time when they play. Just take a look at the player stats and match reports on the USSDA website. They would not be able to get away with playing her so little.
 
I’m familiar with it. My kid plays DA. I’m guessing she won’t make it, will probably be on the DA2 or whatever which should serve her well. At that age, it’s too early to be DA, IMO.
 
Simisoccerfan said:
Sounds like a kid that won't make the DA program next year or she will be playing more under the DA rules. DA requires 25% starts for all players and with limited sub rules players tend to get decent time when they play. Just take a look at the player stats and match reports on the USSDA website. They would not be able to get away with playing her so little.
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25% start rule is a start unless coach starts the bench player and only plays them less than a half never to return that same game...
 
nosubs said:
How are the records that you posted possible, most of these teams have only played 16 games if that?
Here are the records for the U15 southwest division

Southwest - U-15 West
Team Games Wins Losses Ties Pts GF GA
Legends FC U-15 16 11 1 4 37 49 17
So Cal Blues Soccer Club U-15 15 11 3 1 34 51 15
Beach Futbol Club U-15 15 10 1 4 34 34 15
LA Galaxy San Diego U-15 16 9 2 5 32 37 22
SC del Sol U-15 15 8 6 1 25 38 32
San Diego Surf U-15 13 7 3 3 24 26 14
West Coast Futbol Club U-15 15 7 6 2 23 26 19
LAFC Slammers U-15 14 6 6 2 20 19 20
Pateadores U-15 14 6 6 2 20 17 21
Albion SC U-15 14 5 5 4 19 24 25
Real So Cal U-15 15 6 8 1 19 17 22
LA Galaxy U-15 13 5 8 0 15 22 20
Los Angeles Premier Futbol Club U-15 16 4 9 3 15 23 38
Eagles Soccer Club U-15 14 4 10 0 12 21 45
Most of these teams have only played up to 16 games including the showcase. I think your numbers are inflated unless your including records from tournaments or futsal or something.
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I've been away from this board for a while and am just now seeing your comment. You are right. The data has too many games. I looked back at the data table that DA had posted and see that it has placeholders for future games (with 0-0 as the result). That's why there are so many ties. I should have noticed that. Sorry for the confusion. I have now rerun the analysis without those placeholder scores with the corrections made in the original post. The discrepancy between the top and bottom teams increased.
 
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Justafan said:
Agree 100%. This is the most asinine rule of all time. So the theory is that this makes the players get acclimated to the national team rules or FIFA rules or whatever. WRONG. A player is either ready to play a full 90 or not. Maybe they're only physically fit to play 25, 45, or 60. There is no strategy involved in this.

The strategy or acclimation is for the COACH to get used to figuring out his or her lineup according to the limitation of his or her roster. If this is truly for development, it's for the development of their soccer skills! At this point of their development, who gives a rats ass about how many times you go in and out of the lineup. Again, any strategy with limited substitution rules are for the coaches not the players.

And to MarkM's point, he's right, this wouldn't be an issue if rosters were kept to 15-16 players. With limited substitution, and rosters of 20+, it may be driving players out of DA to get more minutes elsewhere. But isn't TRAINING the most important point of DA? So if training is the most important aspect, have more flexible substitution rules so more players get more play time and stick with DA. Then you have the type of roster to get the most out of your training, which is most important for development at this point in their journeys.
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Let me start by saying this forum is far superior to ours in NTX ... Much more relevant, beneficial, adult interaction -- Good stuff!

That being said, I agree with Simi and MarkM regarding their takes on the effect the DA sub rule has on the game. And I'm assuming by you implying that training is the most important part of DA, that you (quite rightly) believe that the majority of a young player's growth will come from more frequent, high level training sessions with like minded/skilled players, which is provided by DA. If so, I'm struggling to understand how an individual player's match time (whether it be a lot or a little) should have anything to do with that player getting more or less out of their training.

Also ... on another note ... The Central-Frontier Division has DA this year for U13s. While they do play on a full sized field, there aren't following the DA substitution rule, nor are those players restricted from participating in outside activities. Maybe CAS will follow suit next year?
 
The crazy thing about statistics is that they can be fairly easily manipulated to show a desired outcome. The original statistics are flawed. You cannot compare three unlike groups and get reliable data. You compared groups of 14, 38, and 17. The data was not normalized thus causing incorrect correlations that favored your point of view.
 
Justafan said:
Agree 100%. This is the most asinine rule of all time. So the theory is that this makes the players get acclimated to the national team rules or FIFA rules or whatever. WRONG. A player is either ready to play a full 90 or not. Maybe they're only physically fit to play 25, 45, or 60. There is no strategy involved in this.

The strategy or acclimation is for the COACH to get used to figuring out his or her lineup according to the limitation of his or her roster. If this is truly for development, it's for the development of their soccer skills! At this point of their development, who gives a rats ass about how many times you go in and out of the lineup. Again, any strategy with limited substitution rules are for the coaches not the players.

And to MarkM's point, he's right, this wouldn't be an issue if rosters were kept to 15-16 players. With limited substitution, and rosters of 20+, it may be driving players out of DA to get more minutes elsewhere. But isn't TRAINING the most important point of DA? So if training is the most important aspect, have more flexible substitution rules so more players get more play time and stick with DA. Then you have the type of roster to get the most out of your training, which is most important for development at this point in their journeys.
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Some DA clubs have monitors on players to see how much they are running. Remember some positions require more running than other positions. Monitor, then let's compare positions and the amount of running and type of running (sprints vs distance) to see who is actually "fit" to play 40, 60 or 90 minutes.
 
Surfref said:
The crazy thing about statistics is that they can be fairly easily manipulated to show a desired outcome. The original statistics are flawed. You cannot compare three unlike groups and get reliable data. You compared groups of 14, 38, and 17. The data was not normalized thus causing incorrect correlations that favored your point of view.
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I have heard from a few families whose daughters play DA that stats are often wrong. Such as minutes of playing time to goals scored and credited to other players.
 
LASTMAN14 said:
I have heard from a few families whose daughters play DA that stats are often wrong. Such as minutes of playing time to goals scored and credited to other players.
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Haven't seen play-time stats incorrect but my DD has 3 goals that are credited to other players :). I know those players are happy to have a goal or two this season.
 
Here’s the other thing in this. There were ECNL players that moved to DA clubs that weren’t ECNL clubs.

Lots of kids moving around that have varying roadmaps to where they’ve landed. You can’t just say Beach or Pats or Galaxy are worse because they weren’t ECNL. My guess is, they have several former ECNL players on their roster.

Also DA teams with ECNL may have taken players that weren’t ECNL the prior season.
 
Surfref said:
The crazy thing about statistics is that they can be fairly easily manipulated to show a desired outcome. The original statistics are flawed. You cannot compare three unlike groups and get reliable data. You compared groups of 14, 38, and 17. The data was not normalized thus causing incorrect correlations that favored your point of view.
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Normalizing the goal differential figure (i.e., scaling it in a range from -1 to 1) produced the following avg. goal differential results:

Dual vs DA Only +0.52
Dual vs Left ECNL +0.54

DA Only vs Dual (0.52)
DA Only vs Left ECNL (0.21)

Left ECNL vs Dual (0.54)
Left ECNL vs DA Only +0.21

I'm not sure I understand why normalization improves the analysis though, as goal differential is measured based on the same scale for each group.

In any event, I didn't set out to manipulate anything and I'm happy to compare the results for the various clubs in any way you think is fair. Just let me know what you'd like to see.
 
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So if GDA soccer is about development, why keep ridiculous stats like games started, played, goals scored? Why have a playoff or even keep score?
 
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