updated 12/18 - 2006: Improvement/Decline by Team 9/1 thru 12/9 2018-19 season - Offense and Defense

[Kante]

Quick note: based on feedback, went back and did qa on both data sets. turns out that the defensive improvement numbers were off significantly for most teams. apologies for that. the numbers now included below are correct.
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Apologies for the length of the post and, as always, congrats to folks who make it all the way through.

Below are the 2018-19, season to date improvement/decline stats for 06/u13 boys SoCal teams (both SD and LA). Couple of things upfront though.

First, the goal of posting this data is to provide families, and teams, clubs and coaches, with information to better understand the season so far i.e. one less tea leaf to decipher.

It is fair to point out that while significant changes from September thru December could be due to good/poor coaching/team development, but they could also be due to things like teams adding/losing players, players being absent due to injury or other reasons from some games, or experimentation (eg, line-ups or tactics) by coaches.

Second, the stats in this post are only measuring improvement/decline from the start of the 2018-19 season on Sept 1 through Dec 9th 2018, not comparing 2018-19 to 2017-18.

This is different than what was posted for the 05 boys which compared improvement/decline y2y. For the 06/u13, comparing performance to the previous year at u12, when there were two teams for each academy club, is close to impossible.

Third, the sample size for these stats ranges from 6 to 10 games, depending on the team. This is a relatively small sample size.

Because of this, am including something called the “r squared” score along with the other stats. Simple version on this number is that “r squared” scores communicate the % of variation that is explained by the statistical analysis i.e. how valid/not valid a particular stat is/is not. For the purposes of this post, am looking at any r squared score at .10 or above as "good enough" to draw attention to stats that bear looking at.

With all those caveats out of the way, here’s the data:

Offensive Improvement/Decline by Team: Sept 1 2018 thru Dec 9 2018




Defensive Improvement/Decline by Team: Sept 1 2018 thru Dec 9 2018

 

[3leches]

Great work again for us numbers people

 

[Xman]

I'm surprised to see LAGSD being so ahead of LAG that's shocking/weird. Don't you think?

 

[Kante]

I'm surprised to see LAGSD being so ahead of LAG that's shocking/weird. Don't you think?

Thanks for the feedback/catch. I went back and double checked everything. See updated tables in the original post. Apologies for the incorrect first set of data.

Short version on offense is that LAG started strong but then has declined significantly since the beginning of season. LAGSD didn't start as strong but also hasn't declined as much. Net net though, both are now in almost exactly the same place offensively. (See the last column in the table for the ending data points.)

On defense, the r squared scores for both teams (see new table in the original post) are pretty low so, even though LAGSD is showing more improvement defensively, wouldn't spend a lot of cycles on those numbers.

Intuitively, it would make sense that LAG would be stronger than LAGSD but that hasn't necessarily been the case with any of the u14 and younger teams. And looking at games from the showcase and the regular season, it looks like the two teams are pretty close (eg, LAGSD lost 2-7 to TFA at the showcase while LAG lost the next week to TFA 1-6 in group play)

Reading the tea leaves, sounds like that te Kloese will start making changes w/ the LAG youth academy (hiring an academy director etc) for the 19-20 season.

 

[Xman]

Thanks for the feedback/catch. I went back and double checked everything. See updated tables in the original post. Apologies for the incorrect first set of data.

Short version on offense is that LAG started strong but then has declined significantly since the beginning of season. LAGSD didn't start as strong but also hasn't declined as much. Net net though, both are now in almost exactly the same place offensively. (See the last column in the table for the ending data points.)

On defense, the r squared scores for both teams (see new table in the original post) are pretty low so, even though LAGSD is showing more improvement defensively, wouldn't spend a lot of cycles on those numbers.

Intuitively, it would make sense that LAG would be stronger than LAGSD but that hasn't necessarily been the case with any of the u14 and younger teams. And looking at games from the showcase and the regular season, it looks like the two teams are pretty close (eg, LAGSD lost 2-7 to TFA at the showcase while LAG lost the next week to TFA 1-6 in group play)

Reading the tea leaves, sounds like that te Kloese will start making changes w/ the LAG youth academy (hiring an academy director etc) for the 19-20 season.

Thanks for the awesome explanation and good luck to te Kloese. It looks like he has a lot of work ahead of him