Iran can’t win a war against the United States. But Tehran could win in negotiations.
By Ray Takeyh
May 16 at 8:24 AM
Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
During a recent speech, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
declared that “Obama, the president of the United States, asked me nineteen times for a meeting. But the government did not have the authorization to respond.” Most likely, President Barack Obama did not ask 19 times for such a meeting, but another U.S. president
has made it publicly clear that he wants to have talks with Iran.
Rouhani was signaling to his own hard-liners that it was time to engage President Trump. Iran cannot win a war against the United States, but it is confident it can outwit Washington at the negotiating table. The most persistent question in Iran today is not about war but whether it is time to entrap the Americans in another lengthy diplomatic process.
For the past two years, the Trump administration has had the luxury of imposing a series of punitive sanctions on Tehran without the Iranians doing anything in response. They gave truculent speeches and pledged defiance while essentially waiting for 2020, when, they hope, a more accommodating Democratic president will come to power. The guardians of the Islamic republic assured themselves that the Trump team would not be able to persuade America’s allies to join in its sanctions policy, much less drive Iran’s oil exports to zero. They were comfortable with maintaining a state of confrontation with Washington and relished rejecting Trump’s persistent calls for direct talks.
All this has now changed. Iran’s
economy is imploding, and the
inflation rate there is skyrocketing. The Trump administration has deterred European commerce and Asian investment from going into Iran. And it may yet succeed in driving down Iran’s oil imports close to zero. These are ominous signs for a regime whose power is based on an elaborate welfare state that sustains its dwindling supporters. Today it is patronage and not piety that holds up the wobbly foundations of the Islamist regime.
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