2005 DA Standings

1st time reading all these posts.
I get shocked! Nostradamus is here.
Is it really possible to predict soccer games? Where is the Physiological and Physical status of each; player, coach, managers, parents? Aren't these the main factors for an Athlete to perform their best? How come some logistics could be released on the public as reliable? With all respect to this person, who is obviously passioned with DA soccer, you are kind of wasting your time or misinforming audience with your own understanding.
At this level... NO ONE IS BETTER THAN ANYBODY. All of the teams can play soccer.
examples:
1) Strikers tied Surf 2) TFA beat LAFC 3)Legends tied Galaxy. How did this happen? Simple. we are in a soccer environment.
 
Emilio Castro said:
1st time reading all these posts.
I get shocked! Nostradamus is here.
Is it really possible to predict soccer games? Where is the Physiological and Physical status of each; player, coach, managers, parents? Aren't these the main factors for an Athlete to perform their best? How come some logistics could be released on the public as reliable? With all respect to this person, who is obviously passioned with DA soccer, you are kind of wasting your time or misinforming audience with your own understanding.
At this level... NO ONE IS BETTER THAN ANYBODY. All of the teams can play soccer.
examples:
1) Strikers tied Surf 2) TFA beat LAFC 3)Legends tied Galaxy. How did this happen? Simple. we are in a soccer environment.
Click to expand...

When I first started reading his posts I was taken back as well, it's a lot of analysis I agree. But his posts are enjoyable to read, and it's all in fun. Welcome, stay awhile, maybe you will start to enjoy them as well. I think everyone here appreciates the fact that it's just a game and yes we understand that the games still need to be played.
 
I enjoy Kante's weekly predictions. Not only is he strangely accurate, but when you have a kid on a team that's playing on a given weekend, striving to beat the expected outcome is kind of cool. We are all semi crazy parents (why else visit a soccer forum website) who live vicariously thru our kids. Just let us have some fun.
 
Emilio Castro said:
At this level... NO ONE IS BETTER THAN ANYBODY. All of the teams can play soccer.
examples:
Click to expand...
This is clearly wrong. Some teams are way better than others (as evidenced by the fact that they win more). The question is by how much.

1) Strikers tied Surf 2) TFA beat LAFC 3)Legends tied Galaxy. How did this happen? Simple. we are in a soccer environment.
Click to expand...
Right, and why would this be surprising? Because generally, the opposite is assumed to be true? Why? Because we all think LAFC is better than TFA and Galaxy is better than Legends, so it stands out when results go the other way.

But this objection comes from a misunderstanding of how statistical models work. When a model predicts that team A will beat team B 3-1, this (obviously) doesn't mean that A will always beat B by that score. It's just that this is the most likely outcome based on past performance. The prediction will also come with a confidence level which describes mathematically how likely it is that this outcome will happen. When a specific outcome doesn't match the prediction, this doesn't mean there's something wrong with the model. You can't judge the model on individual outcomes, only on the aggregate of all the predictions it makes, so, even if we see anomalies like those mentioned above, if, over time, the model predicts the correct score more often than not, you have a good model.

Now, I agree that applying these methods to kids soccer is a little dubious, but only because kids themselves are less consistent than pros and (the bigger issue in my book) there's so much turnover in these clubs. However, if you look at @Kante's predictions over time, they're pretty darn accurate.

@Kante do you have any stats on how accurate your predictions are?
 
focomoso said:
This is clearly wrong. Some teams are way better than others (as evidenced by the fact that they win more). The question is by how much.


Right, and why would this be surprising? Because generally, the opposite is assumed to be true? Why? Because we all think LAFC is better than TFA and Galaxy is better than Legends, so it stands out when results go the other way.

But this objection comes from a misunderstanding of how statistical models work. When a model predicts that team A will beat team B 3-1, this (obviously) doesn't mean that A will always beat B by that score. It's just that this is the most likely outcome based on past performance. The prediction will also come with a confidence level which describes mathematically how likely it is that this outcome will happen. When a specific outcome doesn't match the prediction, this doesn't mean there's something wrong with the model. You can't judge the model on individual outcomes, only on the aggregate of all the predictions it makes, so, even if we see anomalies like those mentioned above, if, over time, the model predicts the correct score more often than not, you have a good model.

Now, I agree that applying these methods to kids soccer is a little dubious, but only because kids themselves are less consistent than pros and (the bigger issue in my book) there's so much turnover in these clubs. However, if you look at @Kante's predictions over time, they're pretty darn accurate.

@Kante do you have any stats on how accurate your predictions are?
Click to expand...
~70-75% of the time within one interval i.e. +/- one goal. gets better if there's time available to incorporate home/away effect and trends for each match. Those pieces, right now, are a more manual process.
 
I enjoy reading what the algorithm predicts and how he tweaks the predictions based on trends and hunches. I hope the team that is predicted to be beat by a lot continues trying if only to beat the algorithm. Too many games I’ve seen a team give up after a 3 goal lead.
 
here's predicts for this weekend. home team is listed first. Friday edit: tightened up the algo to account for home/away and trend. we'll how the changes work out.

Los Angeles
TFA 6 vs Santa Barbara SC 1 note: think but don't know that the three TFA players who got reds vs LAG will still be out out on suspension. more importantly, WD was not coaching last weekend w/ Jorge S. coaching instead for the win against LAFC. we'll see how that affects this weekend.

Legends 4 vs. Pats 0. note: legends have improving consistently, and play well at home. Pats are down to 11 due to injury. last match was 4-3 legends but don't think it will be anywhere near that close this time.

LAUFA 3 vs Real SoCal 0 note: both teams have crazy negative trends going on. as ferbert reminds that's old news for LAUFA (fair) but a factor nonetheless. meanwhile, RSC has scored one goal in their last ten games. LAUFA has a decent home advantage working to their benefit. Key for RSC will be keeping LAUFA's #9 from scoring in the first 20 minutes.

FCG 1 vs LAFC 2. note: FCG hasn't played in about a month and had some funky matches before that, so really difficult to predict accurately. Meanwhile LAFC is coming off a 1-2 loss to TFA that's got to sting. Trends and home field advantage are FCG's favor plus FCG match-up well size wise w/ LAFC, and LAFC's leading scorer has been out the last two games. but, LAFC is LAFC...

San Diego
Albion 1 vs. San Diego Soccer Club 0. note: SDSC has improved a bit defensively and should make this one tight but Albion picks up the win.

LAGSD 1 vs SD Surf 3 note: MMG may still be out for SD Surf, and, if that's the case, this one will be closer. Interestingly, although it's a small sample (2 games), the biggest impact of MMG's absence seems to be that the SD Surf gets worse defensively. On the offensive side, MMG's absence look like a wash. Is counter-intuitive. If anyone has thoughts on the "why" behind this, would be really interested. Seems to speak well of the other SD Surf forwards and XG. Also, this will the 2nd (?) without benoit david as the sd surf coach.

OC Surf 1 vs. Strikers 6 *match to watch* OC Surf has seen some improvement in March defensively, and this match will be a good measuring stick for them for whether or not the last two matches have been outliers. Nothing against the Strikers but am rooting for OC Surf to beat the spread.
 
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Final Score
LAFC - 2
FCGS - 1

Pretty good game. LAFC scored twice in the 1st half for a 2-0 lead at half. 1st was a nice header and 2nd was a 1v1 with the goalie with the defender just behind the LAFC player. Procession was about 80-20 LAFC.

FCGS scored in the 2nd half to make it 2-1 with procession getting more even. A yellow card was issued to the FCGS keeper for a handball outside the box. He said the ball was on the line. This was a night game and 2 of the 6 lights poles were not working with the 2 being on his side of the field, so that part of the field was darker than the rest to the field. Great chance for LAFC to score but the ball went just wide.

With 11 minutes left in the game, the game was delayed for about 30 minutes due to a LAFC player having a serious injury. My son told me what happened according to him but it wouldn't be right to post other players detail injuries here. Nothing dirty, just an unfortunate incident. In speaking to the referees after the game, they were confused as to what happen. The LAFC player was transported in an ambulance and I hope he has a healthy recovery. FCGS had 3 great chances to tie the game with 2 balls off the posts/crossbar and one open net with the ball bouncing everywhere but not into the net.

Again, I hope along with the other FCGS parents/players hope that the injured LAFC player has a healthy and full recovery.
 
OC Surf 2 - Strikers 1
This team has been busting their tales and are now seeing the results.. hard fought on both sides, some great defensive play by OCSurf with some great goal keeping as well. Strikers had chances but could not convert.
 
here's predicts vs actuals for this weekend. home team is listed first. it was an eventful weekend. for the lafc player who had the injury, good thoughts and get better soon.

Los Angeles
Predict: TFA 6 vs Santa Barbara SC 1. Actuals: TFA 2 vs Santa Barbara SC 3. Pretty surprised by this result and a couple of different items going on with this one.

First, credit should be given to Santa Barbara SC. They've been improving, particularly defensively, over the course of the season, and this was the same TFA team and coaching staff that just beat a 99% full strength LAFC squad 2-1 last week.

However. Three suspended TFA players were still out after the incident two weeks back w/ LAG. TFA's coach, WD, still seems to be out, possibly due to the LAG incident, plus TFA's director of coaching who was filling in last week for WD just resigned from UCLA (the TFA doc was caught up in the recent college admissions scandal). These things add-up, and likely took a toll on TFA this weekend. Hopefully they can get their house in order moving forward.

Any other commentary here?

Predict: LAUFA 3 vs Real SoCal 0. Actuals: LAUFA 1 vs Real SoCal 0. Have previously commented on the trends for both of these teams and won't belabor the points.

Any other commentary here?

Predict: FCG 1 vs LAFC 2. Actuals: FCG 1 vs LAFC 2. Ironically, thought this match was the hardest one to call and ended up hitting the exacta. here's solid commentary from the game from red card:

"Pretty good game. LAFC scored twice in the 1st half for a 2-0 lead at half. 1st was a nice header and 2nd was a 1v1 with the goalie with the defender just behind the LAFC player. Procession was about 80-20 LAFC.

FCGS scored in the 2nd half to make it 2-1 with procession getting more even. A yellow card was issued to the FCGS keeper for a handball outside the box. He said the ball was on the line. This was a night game and 2 of the 6 lights poles were not working with the 2 being on his side of the field, so that part of the field was darker than the rest to the field. Great chance for LAFC to score but the ball went just wide.

With 11 minutes left in the game, the game was delayed for about 30 minutes due to a LAFC player having a serious injury. My son told me what happened according to him but it wouldn't be right to post other players detail injuries here. Nothing dirty, just an unfortunate incident. In speaking to the referees after the game, they were confused as to what happen. The LAFC player was transported in an ambulance and I hope he has a healthy recovery. FCGS had 3 great chances to tie the game with 2 balls off the posts/crossbar and one open net with the ball bouncing everywhere but not into the net.

Again, I hope along with the other FCGS parents/players hope that the injured LAFC player has a healthy and full recovery."
​
Any other commentary here?

San Diego
Predict: Albion 1 vs. San Diego Soccer Club 0. Actuals: Albion 3 vs. San Diego Soccer Club 0. Per the game report, Albion got one early, SDSC then held them until the last 15 minutes or so

Any other commentary here?

Predict: LAGSD 1 vs SD Surf 3 Actuals: LAGSD 0 vs SD Surf 2. SD Surf was missing MMG and GE who combine for about 2.4 goals per game. Per the game report, looks like a defensive battle with SD Surf getting one early and then XG getting at the 53rd minute to help put the result out of reach.

Any other commentary here?

Predict: OC Surf 1 vs. Strikers 6. Actuals: OC Surf 2 vs. Strikers 1. At least the *match to watch* call was correct. here's what was said: "OC Surf has seen some improvement in March defensively, and this match will be a good measuring stick for them for whether or not the last two matches have been outliers. Nothing against the Strikers but am rooting for OC Surf to beat the spread."

Turns out OC Surf seems to be for real. The game sounds like it was lot of fun to watch. Per the game report, it was 0-0 at half-time. In the 2nd half, the Strikers scored first at the beginning of the 2nd half, but OC Surf tied it up five minutes later. After a card on the Strikers at the 79th minute, OC Surf scored one at the whistle for the win. Here's commentary from cr125man:

"This team has been busting their tales and are now seeing the results.. hard fought on both sides, some great defensive play by OCSurf with some great goal keeping as well. Strikers had chances but could not convert."​

OC Surf, well done.

The one caveat is that OC Surf has added five new players since late January and two of these players contributed the two goals scored against the Strikers this weekend.

So, while am sure the team has been working its butt off, OC Surf's recruiting also has a lot to do with their recent results.

Any other commentary here?
 
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Does anyone know an update on the 05 LAFC player that was injured vs FCGS, my son keeps seeing post to pray for him on SM. We are competitors on the field and humans off the field and hope and pray none of the athletes sustain any serious or life altering injury, would be nice to know he is doing ok.
 
here's predicts for this weekend (3/30 & 3/31). home teams are listed first.

Los Angeles
LAG 3 vs FCG 0 *match to watch* The algo has it 3-0 but am thinking this one could be closer due to FCG improvement over time (eg, FCG only lost to LAFC 1-2) and FCG matching up well size wise w/ LAG. Should be a fun one to watch
Legends 3 vs LAUFA 1
LAFC 5 vs Pats 0
Real SoCal 1 vs TFA 3
Pats 1 vs. Real SoCal 1

San Diego
SD Surf 4 vs Nomads 1
Strikers 3 vs LAGSD 1
SD Surf 5 vs SDSC 0
 
Kante said:
here's predicts for this weekend (3/30 & 3/31). home teams are listed first.

Los Angeles
LAG 3 vs FCG 0 *match to watch* The algo has it 3-0 but am thinking this one could be closer due to FCG improvement over time (eg, FCG only lost to LAFC 1-2) and FCG matching up well size wise w/ LAG. Should be a fun one to watch
Click to expand...

Final
LAG - 3
FCGS - 2

LAG scored 1st around 5 minutes into the game. Bad pass back by FCGS to the keeper who was not expecting it. LAG player got the ball was the keeper way out of position. LAG crossed the ball in the box and FCGS defender made an own goal.

LAG went up 2-0 on a 1v1 against the keeper. FCGS keeper made a great toe save a few minutes later went could of had LAG go up 3-0.

FCGS scored on a penalty kick to make it 2-1. PK was actually taken twice. LAG keeper made the save but I believe he left the goal line early so there was a re-do and FCGS was able to put the ball into the net the 2nd time.

Halftime score was 2-1 LAG

LAG scored 2 minutes into the 2nd half on a cross to the left side into an open net

Around the 15 minute mark LAG was called for a handball just outside the box on the left side. DFK was taken and FCGS scored on a beautiful header.

FCGS 2nd keeper who was actually sick and was on the bench just in case of an emergency received a yellow card around 20 minutes into the 2nd half for mouthing off to the referee. I believe his words were "Don't be afraid of the shield, blow the damn whistle". Yeah, I'm the proud dad of that kid...lol

Overall, it was a pretty good match. A couple of mistakes really caused the game for FCGS.
 
Carl said:
Does anyone know an update on the 05 LAFC player that was injured vs FCGS, my son keeps seeing post to pray for him on SM. We are competitors on the field and humans off the field and hope and pray none of the athletes sustain any serious or life altering injury, would be nice to know he is doing ok.
Click to expand...

Last I heard it was a concussion and all test came back negative. Probably the best news considering how scary it looked. My son 2 seasons ago received a bad concussion when him ( a keeper ) and a striker decided to play chicken going to the ball and neither one flinch. My son was out for a month so IMO the LAFC player will miss the next 3-5 games. Again, that's just my opinion.
 
Kante said:
here's predicts for this weekend (3/30 & 3/31). home teams are listed first.

Los Angeles
LAG 3 vs FCG 0 *match to watch* The algo has it 3-0 but am thinking this one could be closer due to FCG improvement over time (eg, FCG only lost to LAFC 1-2) and FCG matching up well size wise w/ LAG. Should be a fun one to watch
Legends 3 vs LAUFA 1
LAFC 5 vs Pats 0
Real SoCal 1 vs TFA 3
Pats 1 vs. Real SoCal 1

San Diego
SD Surf 4 vs Nomads 1
Strikers 3 vs LAGSD 1
SD Surf 5 vs SDSC 0
Click to expand...

Legends 1-0 over Laufa. Tale of two halves. Laufa took it to them in the 1st. Laufa was the aggressor, winning most of the 50/50 balls. Should've had a lead at half, but couldn't get a clean strike when the opportunities came up. Legends keeper came up big on a 1v1 a few minutes before the whistle.

2nd half, Legends shuffled the lineup and strategy. LFC attacked more and was much more aggressive. Numerous chances to score, finally converted on a free kick from far out,to an un-marked player who had time to collect and score. Laufa defender had a nice goal line slide to deny a 2nd goal.

Game played out like it should've been 3-2 or 3-3.
 
anyone see the TFA/RSC match? The game report was just published and RSC won 3-0.

From the looks of it, TFA played without five starters (three due to red cards from the LAG match), played two 06s up and it looks like without their coach or director of coaching. RSC was missing three players.

There may have been some controversy with RSC's first goal since it happened at the same time TFA received a yellow. In the 2nd half, TFA went to ten men at the 72nd minute after their leading scorer received a second yellow, and then RSC scored their last two goals.

Good on RSC for the win and putting some balls in the back of the net. TFA looks like they're having some tough times. any additional comments? would be fascinated to hear this match went.
 
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here's predicts vs actuals for this weekend (3/30 & 3/31). home teams are listed first.

Los Angeles
Predict: LAG 3 vs FCG 0. Actuals: LAG 3 vs FCG 2. Here's commentary (thanks Redcard for results and commentary)

"LAG scored 1st around 5 minutes into the game. Bad pass back by FCGS to the keeper who was not expecting it. LAG player got the ball was the keeper way out of position. LAG crossed the ball in the box and FCGS defender made an own goal. LAG went up 2-0 on a 1v1 against the keeper. FCGS keeper made a great toe save a few minutes later went could of had LAG go up 3-0. FCGS scored on a penalty kick to make it 2-1. PK was actually taken twice. LAG keeper made the save but I believe he left the goal line early so there was a re-do and FCGS was able to put the ball into the net the 2nd time.

Halftime score was 2-1 LAG

LAG scored 2 minutes into the 2nd half on a cross to the left side into an open net. Around the 15 minute mark LAG was called for a handball just outside the box on the left side. DFK was taken and FCGS scored on a beautiful header. FCGS 2nd keeper who was actually sick and was on the bench just in case of an emergency received a yellow card around 20 minutes into the 2nd half for mouthing off to the referee. I believe his words were "Don't be afraid of the shield, blow the damn whistle". Yeah, I'm the proud dad of that kid...lol. Overall, it was a pretty good match. A couple of mistakes really caused the game for FCGS."
​
Predict: Legends 3 vs LAUFA 1. Actuals: Legends 1 vs LAUFA 0. Here's commentary (thanks ilikefutbol for results and commentary):

"Legends 1-0 over Laufa. Tale of two halves. Laufa took it to them in the 1st. Laufa was the aggressor, winning most of the 50/50 balls. Should've had a lead at half, but couldn't get a clean strike when the opportunities came up. Legends keeper came up big on a 1v1 a few minutes before the whistle.

2nd half, Legends shuffled the lineup and strategy. LFC attacked more and was much more aggressive. Numerous chances to score, finally converted on a free kick from far out,to an un-marked player who had time to collect and score. Laufa defender had a nice goal line slide to deny a 2nd goal.

Game played out like it should've been 3-2 or 3-3."​

Predict: LAFC 5 vs Pats 0. Actuals: LAFC 7 vs Pats 0. LAFC came full strength for this match, only playing one 06 up, and scored in the first minute. It was downhill after that for the Pats. The one bit of good news for the Pats is that they had 13 players rostered (as opposed to just 11) for the first time in a while.

Predict: Real SoCal 1 vs TFA 3. Actuals: Real SoCal 3 vs TFA 0. After only scoring two goals in the their previous 12 matches, things clicked offensively this weekend for RSC. While there were caveats with the TFA match, RSC deserves credit for righting the ship. Hopefully, continues weekend against FCG. here's commentary on match from the game report: There may have been some controversy with RSC's first early goal since it happened at the same time TFA received a yellow. In the 2nd half, TFA went to ten men at the 72nd minute after their leading scorer received a second yellow (called questionable by feedback via dm), then went to nine men after an injury (again, per feedback via dm), and then RSC scored their last two goals.

Per the game report, TFA played without five starters (three due to red cards from the LAG match), played two 06s up and it looks like without their coach or director of coaching. RSC was missing three players. Good on RSC for the win and finally putting some balls in the back of the net. TFA looks like they're continuing to have some tough times/luck.

Predict: Pats 1 vs. Real SoCal 1. Actuals: Pats 2 vs. Real SoCal 3. Per the game report, this one looks like it was a fun match to watch. Pats again had 13 rostered (a good thing), and scored the first goal in the 18th minute. RSC tied it up at at the 29th minute and the teams went into halftime tied 1-1. In the second half, Pats went ahead 2-1 with a goal in the 48th minute but RSC came back with two quick ones with about ten minutes left in the match. HH scored all three goals for RSC for the hat trick (plus one yellow after his third goal)

San Diego
Predict: SD Surf 4 vs Nomads 1. Actuals: SD Surf 7 vs Nomads 2. (thanks to Soccerdad79 for the result) SD Surf has almost 100% full strength for this match (still missing GE who was called into the US Soccer Central Training Camp), and MMG went for a hat trick, XG went for a brace and TW put in one as well in full SD Surf shock and awe mode. Good on the Nomads for getting a couple in against a tough SD Surf side

Predict: Strikers 3 vs LAGSD 1. Actuals: Strikers 3 vs LAGSD 1

Predict: SD Surf 5 vs SDSC 0. Actuals: SD Surf 4 vs SDSC 0 (thanks to Soccerdad79 for the result - any additional commentary?)
 
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