Kante.. what are your thoughts on this first half of the season and will TFA end up undefeated?
Will TFA end up undefeated? an interesting question... (will post thoughts on first half of season in a later post)
Let's be honest, it's impossible to predict.
Having said that, let's take a look and maybe there might be some insight that's better than just checking the magic eight ball (but maybe not...)
1) One of the biggest variables is that TFA has been consistently playing 06s up so far this season (a total of seven 06s have played at one least match with the TFA 05s)
Lots of reason for this (eg, the 05s after losing a significant number of players from last year need the help), but will give credit where credit is due. The TFA coaches have been giving these 06s an opportunity to play against bigger/better players to help their development i.e. "playing the kids."
(In contrast, LAFC, despite their academy director of coaching saying in an interview that "going into next year (i.e. 2019-20), put results a little bit on the back burner ..." LAFC has only played less than a handful of players across all their three younger teams - u13,u14, and u15 - up an age group so far this season)
So, looked at how 06 TFA players being rostered/not rostered with the u14s affects the TFA u14 team performance with some regression analysis. (unfortunately, can only tell from u14 game reports if a player is or is not rostered, not how many minutes they played or if they started, so making the best of the available data...)
here's what the data says:
- Offensively, DBA, JS and AM are big drivers on how well the u14 offense does, and they drive about 30% of the variation in offensive performance. TFA coaches seem to be aware of this and have only pulled one of these players at a time to play up w/ the 05s. (DBA missed the first match of the season against Ventura - when AM played 80 against LAGSD - due to suspension)
- Defensively, EC, LM and DV are big drivers on TFA u14 defensive performance, and account for a surprising 86% of the variation in how well the u14 TFA defense does. So far though, only DV has played more than one match up w/ the 05s, so it's a small data set to look at.
- An interesting point from the stats is that while DBA is a big contributor on offense, he's, statistically, a bit of a defensive liability. Conversely, LM and DV are rocks on defense, but, statistically, hold the offense back a bit.
Net net, the TFA coaches have interesting challenge optimizing the 06 and 05 rosters.
2) TFA have played seven of their first 11 group matches at home, and enjoy a significant offensive home field advantage - when other variables are controlled for (eg, rostered players, point in the season etc) - that accounts for 30% of TFA's variation in offensive performance.
As TFA plays more away matches in 2020, they'll likely have some offensive challenges.
So far this year,
Defensively, TFA doesn't seem affected by home vs away.
3) TFA has a poor trend line offensively this season, even when controlling for rostered players
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Could be lots of reason for this downward trend including the TFA coaches looking to focus in games on more passing, playing out of the back, getting better defensively (this one seems to be likely in the case of TFA) etc.
However, teams - when they're dominant in their group - tend to become overconfident/less focused.
TFA only needs to look to LAFC's 05 team in the 2018-19 season when, a month after winning the Concacaf 05 club title on top of an undefeated 2017-18 season with a ridiculous +114 goal differential over 26 games (includes 3 showcase matches), LAFC lost 0-1 to Real SoCal - after playing, by most accounts, a lackadaisical match.
It's hard for any team of adults to maintain focus and discipline over a long season (and 25-30 games over ten months is a long season), let alone 13-14 year old boys.
And if TFA has a goal of going undefeated this season, they're going to have turn this offensive trend line above around.
Defensively, TFA seems to be on solid ground. here's their defensive trend line so far this year:
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So those are the key variables.
But, to be clear, most folks will be looking to see if TFA can do what LAFC 05s did in 2017-18, which was not to simply go undefeated.
The LAFC 05s won every match they played that season, and won decisively.
The TFA 06s have their work cut out for them, but it will be fun to see if they can pull it off.