The War on Iran . . . or Wag the Dog American Style
- Thread starter Hüsker Dü
- Start date
Sheriff Joe
DA
So you believe Britain?
Hüsker Dü
DA
Over t and b, yes, absolutely.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Suckers
First :
Isn't " England " where the phony Steele Dossier was developed/cultivated.....Hmmmm.
Second :
Have YOU seen the Intelligence information that prompted the United States to pull
US personal from Iraq and surrounding areas....Hmmmm.
Third :
Could YOU live with the subtle premise you are putting forward if the contrary proved
true and massive amounts of human lives were lost due to a Nuclear Detonation in the region
because the Iranians had been secretly building Nuclear Weapons and NOW they decided
to initiate a Terrorist Act with a Few !!! ...............Hmmmmmmm.
BLIND Loyalty to the Criminal Empire/MSM is your Achilles Heel.
Have another slice of yellow cake uranium!
Blaming America First on Iran
Trump is trying to protect U.S. interests, not start a war.
By
The Editorial Board
Updated May 15, 2019 9:51 p.m. ET
When the U.S. withdraws its diplomats from a foreign country amid a security threat, the domestic reaction in a previous age would have been to show solidarity against an adversary. But this is Washington in 2019, so the loyal opposition is reacting to the threat from Iran by blaming—President Trump.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/acting-out-in-tehran-11557961728
Trump is trying to protect U.S. interests, not start a war.
By
The Editorial Board
Updated May 15, 2019 9:51 p.m. ET
When the U.S. withdraws its diplomats from a foreign country amid a security threat, the domestic reaction in a previous age would have been to show solidarity against an adversary. But this is Washington in 2019, so the loyal opposition is reacting to the threat from Iran by blaming—President Trump.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/acting-out-in-tehran-11557961728
Iran can’t win a war against the United States. But Tehran could win in negotiations.
By Ray Takeyh
May 16 at 8:24 AM
Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
During a recent speech, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani declared that “Obama, the president of the United States, asked me nineteen times for a meeting. But the government did not have the authorization to respond.” Most likely, President Barack Obama did not ask 19 times for such a meeting, but another U.S. president has made it publicly clear that he wants to have talks with Iran.
Rouhani was signaling to his own hard-liners that it was time to engage President Trump. Iran cannot win a war against the United States, but it is confident it can outwit Washington at the negotiating table. The most persistent question in Iran today is not about war but whether it is time to entrap the Americans in another lengthy diplomatic process.
For the past two years, the Trump administration has had the luxury of imposing a series of punitive sanctions on Tehran without the Iranians doing anything in response. They gave truculent speeches and pledged defiance while essentially waiting for 2020, when, they hope, a more accommodating Democratic president will come to power. The guardians of the Islamic republic assured themselves that the Trump team would not be able to persuade America’s allies to join in its sanctions policy, much less drive Iran’s oil exports to zero. They were comfortable with maintaining a state of confrontation with Washington and relished rejecting Trump’s persistent calls for direct talks.
All this has now changed. Iran’s economy is imploding, and the inflation rate there is skyrocketing. The Trump administration has deterred European commerce and Asian investment from going into Iran. And it may yet succeed in driving down Iran’s oil imports close to zero. These are ominous signs for a regime whose power is based on an elaborate welfare state that sustains its dwindling supporters. Today it is patronage and not piety that holds up the wobbly foundations of the Islamist regime.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...iations/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7616663439dd
By Ray Takeyh
May 16 at 8:24 AM
Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
During a recent speech, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani declared that “Obama, the president of the United States, asked me nineteen times for a meeting. But the government did not have the authorization to respond.” Most likely, President Barack Obama did not ask 19 times for such a meeting, but another U.S. president has made it publicly clear that he wants to have talks with Iran.
Rouhani was signaling to his own hard-liners that it was time to engage President Trump. Iran cannot win a war against the United States, but it is confident it can outwit Washington at the negotiating table. The most persistent question in Iran today is not about war but whether it is time to entrap the Americans in another lengthy diplomatic process.
For the past two years, the Trump administration has had the luxury of imposing a series of punitive sanctions on Tehran without the Iranians doing anything in response. They gave truculent speeches and pledged defiance while essentially waiting for 2020, when, they hope, a more accommodating Democratic president will come to power. The guardians of the Islamic republic assured themselves that the Trump team would not be able to persuade America’s allies to join in its sanctions policy, much less drive Iran’s oil exports to zero. They were comfortable with maintaining a state of confrontation with Washington and relished rejecting Trump’s persistent calls for direct talks.
All this has now changed. Iran’s economy is imploding, and the inflation rate there is skyrocketing. The Trump administration has deterred European commerce and Asian investment from going into Iran. And it may yet succeed in driving down Iran’s oil imports close to zero. These are ominous signs for a regime whose power is based on an elaborate welfare state that sustains its dwindling supporters. Today it is patronage and not piety that holds up the wobbly foundations of the Islamist regime.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...iations/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7616663439dd
Airlines tickets to Baghdad are $ 1,195.00 on Justfly.com ....
You can be the canary and let us all know how much you enjoy
your personally issued slice of " Yellow Cake " Uranium .....
You'll have about 30-40 minutes to take " Selfies " until the Black
Rain hits.....that's assuming you're lucky enough to be just out of the
blast circumference....
When the skin burns heal ...post pictures...I hear Germany has
very good radiation burn clinics...
Hüsker Dü
DA
“STOP blaming either party for diesel prices. READ THIS, but only IF you want to REALLY know why diesel is so high:
Diesel hit $6.05 per gallon yesterday. The highest price ever recorded in the history of the United States. It set all time records in 28 states simultaneously. In California the average is $7.98. Five California stations ran out of room on their price boards and are displaying $9.999, the highest number their machines can physically show.
Americans are spending $700 million more per day on gas and diesel than they did a year ago.
And right on schedule, the argument has started. One side says it is Trump's fault because of the war with Iran. The other side says it has nothing to do with Trump. Both sides are missing the actual story. And I think that is by design.
The war with Iran is real. The Strait of Hormuz is constrained. Fuel exports are disrupted. That is a factor. But if you stop there you will never understand why $6 diesel is happening now when crude oil is not even close to its all time high.
Crude oil hit $100 per barrel this week. That sounds like a lot until you adjust for inflation. In 2008, crude hit $147 per barrel. Adjusted to today's dollars that is over $210. In 1980 during the Iranian Revolution, crude hit $36 per barrel. Adjusted to today's dollars that is over $160. The current price of crude is well below both of those peaks in real terms.
But diesel was never $6 during those crises. Not in 1980. Not in 2008. Not ever.
The barrel price does not explain $6 diesel. Something else does. And that something else is the part nobody in Washington wants to talk about.
Between 2020 and 2026, 11 major U.S. oil refineries permanently closed or stopped refining crude oil. Not temporarily shut down. Permanently gone. The combined capacity lost is approximately 1.72 million barrels per day gross, roughly 900,000 barrels per day net after accounting for some expansions at remaining facilities.
These were not small operations. Philadelphia Energy Solutions in Pennsylvania, 335,000 barrels per day. Shell Convent in Louisiana, 211,146 barrels per day. Phillips 66 Alliance in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, 255,000 barrels per day. Marathon Petroleum in Martinez, California, 161,000 barrels per day. LyondellBasell in Houston, 263,776 barrels per day. Phillips 66 in Los Angeles, 138,700 barrels per day. Valero in Benicia, California, 145,000 barrels per day. And several more.
U.S. refining capacity went from a record high of 18.98 million barrels per day at the start of 2020 to approximately 17.9 million by early 2022. The lowest level since 2014. It has continued declining since.
The Energy Information Administration said it plainly. ‘Typically, we don't see capacity close and then reopen in the same operating mode, so we think it's safe to say that the refineries that have closed are probably shuttered for good.’
These companies did not lose these refineries in a fire or a hurricane and never recover. They made a business decision. Demand dropped during COVID. Margins tightened. And instead of weathering the downturn and maintaining capacity for the recovery that everyone knew was coming, they permanently closed facilities, removed the capacity from the market forever, and waited.
When demand came roaring back in 2021 and 2022, the capacity was gone. Fewer refineries processing crude into fuel meant less supply of diesel and gasoline. Less supply meant higher prices. Higher prices meant wider margins. And wider margins meant the largest profits in the history of the refining industry.
The refining margin is called the crack spread. It is the difference between what a refiner pays for a barrel of crude oil and what they earn selling the refined products. From 2010 to 2021, the historical average crack spread was $10 to $16 per barrel. That was normal. That was steady. For over a decade.
In 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted European fuel supply while U.S. refining capacity was still depleted from the closures, crack spreads exploded to $50 to $60 per barrel. Three to four times the historical norm.
In 2023 and 2024, spreads came down to $15 to $25. Closer to normal. Prices at the pump came down some. But they never went back to where they were before. The floor had been permanently raised.
Now in 2026, with the Iran war disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian drones hitting Russian refineries, crack spreads have surged past even the 2022 records. And the companies that removed the capacity are harvesting the consequences.
Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 collectively earned $12.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026 alone. Their highest combined quarterly result since 2022. Their stock prices are surging. Forbes reported in July that refining stocks are soaring as crack spreads hit record highs.
Marathon is the company that permanently closed its Martinez, California and Gallup, New Mexico refineries during COVID.
Phillips 66 is the company that closed its Alliance refinery in Louisiana after Hurricane Ida, closed its Rodeo and Santa Maria facilities in California, and closed its Los Angeles refinery in October 2025.
Valero is the company that ceased operations at its Benicia, California refinery in early 2026.
The same companies that removed the capacity are the same companies posting record profits from the scarcity that removal created.
And here is where it becomes something more than just a market story.
Before COVID, the oil and gas industry spent roughly $55 to $68 million per election cycle on political contributions to federal candidates and parties. That was the steady state for a decade. $56 million in 2018. $63 million in 2020.
In the 2024 election cycle, the oil and gas industry spent $219 million to influence the election. $67 million directly to candidates. $151 million in outside spending through PACs and super PACs. 88% of it went to Republicans.
From $63 million in 2020 to $219 million in 2024. A 247% increase in a single cycle.
Annual lobbying went from $112 million in 2020 to $154 million in 2024. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, the trade group that specifically represents refining companies, doubled its own lobbying budget from a $3.4 million annual average to $6.9 million starting in 2023, the same year its members were posting record profits from constrained supply.
The refiners' trade group doubled its lobbying the same year the refiners posted their highest profits from the capacity they deliberately destroyed.
Valero tripled its political contributions from the 2022 cycle to the 2024 cycle. $1.78 million to $5.66 million. This is the same company that closed its Benicia refinery in early 2026, removing another 145,000 barrels per day, and posted billions in quarterly profits.
And what are those politicians doing with all that money and all that influence?
They are not investigating why diesel is at $6 when crude does not justify it. They are not holding hearings on refining margins. They are not asking why companies that permanently removed capacity are posting record profits from the scarcity they created. They are not proposing legislation to incentivize new refining capacity or to regulate crack spreads that are running 3 to 5 times their historical average.
They are doing nothing. Because the money has purchased their silence.
This is the story that neither side of the political argument wants you to see. Blaming Trump and the Iran war is convenient because it puts the problem on one man and one policy decision. Defending Trump by saying the war is necessary and prices will come down is convenient because it avoids examining who is actually profiting and why.
The truth is bigger than either argument.
The war is the accelerant. It is not the cause.
The cause is structural. The refining industry used COVID as cover to permanently reduce capacity. Every crisis that has come since, Russia-Ukraine in 2022, the Iran war in 2026, hits American consumers harder than it should because the cushion was deliberately removed. The system has less margin for disruption. And every disruption generates larger profits for the companies that made the system more fragile by design.
Then those profits get recycled into political spending. $219 million in the 2024 cycle. $154 million in lobbying in a single year. That money buys silence. It buys inaction. It buys the absence of hearings, the absence of investigations, the absence of regulation. And the cycle repeats.
Close the refineries. Tighten the supply. Wait for the next crisis. Harvest the margins. Post record profits. Spend record amounts on politicians. Protect the arrangement. Let the American consumer absorb the cost.
That is not a free market. That is a captured market. And the capture was paid for with profits extracted from the people now paying $6.05 per gallon to drive to work, feed their families, and heat their homes.
The next time someone tells you diesel is expensive because of Trump, ask them why crude is below its inflation-adjusted highs from 2008 and 1980 but diesel is higher than it has ever been in history. Ask them what happened to the 11 refineries that closed since 2020. Ask them what a crack spread is and why it is running 3 to 5 times its historical average. Ask them how much Marathon, Valero, and Phillips 66 made last quarter. Ask them how much the oil and gas industry spent on the 2024 election.
- Rick Osborne
Diesel hit $6.05 per gallon yesterday. The highest price ever recorded in the history of the United States. It set all time records in 28 states simultaneously. In California the average is $7.98. Five California stations ran out of room on their price boards and are displaying $9.999, the highest number their machines can physically show.
Americans are spending $700 million more per day on gas and diesel than they did a year ago.
And right on schedule, the argument has started. One side says it is Trump's fault because of the war with Iran. The other side says it has nothing to do with Trump. Both sides are missing the actual story. And I think that is by design.
The war with Iran is real. The Strait of Hormuz is constrained. Fuel exports are disrupted. That is a factor. But if you stop there you will never understand why $6 diesel is happening now when crude oil is not even close to its all time high.
Crude oil hit $100 per barrel this week. That sounds like a lot until you adjust for inflation. In 2008, crude hit $147 per barrel. Adjusted to today's dollars that is over $210. In 1980 during the Iranian Revolution, crude hit $36 per barrel. Adjusted to today's dollars that is over $160. The current price of crude is well below both of those peaks in real terms.
But diesel was never $6 during those crises. Not in 1980. Not in 2008. Not ever.
The barrel price does not explain $6 diesel. Something else does. And that something else is the part nobody in Washington wants to talk about.
Between 2020 and 2026, 11 major U.S. oil refineries permanently closed or stopped refining crude oil. Not temporarily shut down. Permanently gone. The combined capacity lost is approximately 1.72 million barrels per day gross, roughly 900,000 barrels per day net after accounting for some expansions at remaining facilities.
These were not small operations. Philadelphia Energy Solutions in Pennsylvania, 335,000 barrels per day. Shell Convent in Louisiana, 211,146 barrels per day. Phillips 66 Alliance in Belle Chasse, Louisiana, 255,000 barrels per day. Marathon Petroleum in Martinez, California, 161,000 barrels per day. LyondellBasell in Houston, 263,776 barrels per day. Phillips 66 in Los Angeles, 138,700 barrels per day. Valero in Benicia, California, 145,000 barrels per day. And several more.
U.S. refining capacity went from a record high of 18.98 million barrels per day at the start of 2020 to approximately 17.9 million by early 2022. The lowest level since 2014. It has continued declining since.
The Energy Information Administration said it plainly. ‘Typically, we don't see capacity close and then reopen in the same operating mode, so we think it's safe to say that the refineries that have closed are probably shuttered for good.’
These companies did not lose these refineries in a fire or a hurricane and never recover. They made a business decision. Demand dropped during COVID. Margins tightened. And instead of weathering the downturn and maintaining capacity for the recovery that everyone knew was coming, they permanently closed facilities, removed the capacity from the market forever, and waited.
When demand came roaring back in 2021 and 2022, the capacity was gone. Fewer refineries processing crude into fuel meant less supply of diesel and gasoline. Less supply meant higher prices. Higher prices meant wider margins. And wider margins meant the largest profits in the history of the refining industry.
The refining margin is called the crack spread. It is the difference between what a refiner pays for a barrel of crude oil and what they earn selling the refined products. From 2010 to 2021, the historical average crack spread was $10 to $16 per barrel. That was normal. That was steady. For over a decade.
In 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted European fuel supply while U.S. refining capacity was still depleted from the closures, crack spreads exploded to $50 to $60 per barrel. Three to four times the historical norm.
In 2023 and 2024, spreads came down to $15 to $25. Closer to normal. Prices at the pump came down some. But they never went back to where they were before. The floor had been permanently raised.
Now in 2026, with the Iran war disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian drones hitting Russian refineries, crack spreads have surged past even the 2022 records. And the companies that removed the capacity are harvesting the consequences.
Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 collectively earned $12.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026 alone. Their highest combined quarterly result since 2022. Their stock prices are surging. Forbes reported in July that refining stocks are soaring as crack spreads hit record highs.
Marathon is the company that permanently closed its Martinez, California and Gallup, New Mexico refineries during COVID.
Phillips 66 is the company that closed its Alliance refinery in Louisiana after Hurricane Ida, closed its Rodeo and Santa Maria facilities in California, and closed its Los Angeles refinery in October 2025.
Valero is the company that ceased operations at its Benicia, California refinery in early 2026.
The same companies that removed the capacity are the same companies posting record profits from the scarcity that removal created.
And here is where it becomes something more than just a market story.
Before COVID, the oil and gas industry spent roughly $55 to $68 million per election cycle on political contributions to federal candidates and parties. That was the steady state for a decade. $56 million in 2018. $63 million in 2020.
In the 2024 election cycle, the oil and gas industry spent $219 million to influence the election. $67 million directly to candidates. $151 million in outside spending through PACs and super PACs. 88% of it went to Republicans.
From $63 million in 2020 to $219 million in 2024. A 247% increase in a single cycle.
Annual lobbying went from $112 million in 2020 to $154 million in 2024. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, the trade group that specifically represents refining companies, doubled its own lobbying budget from a $3.4 million annual average to $6.9 million starting in 2023, the same year its members were posting record profits from constrained supply.
The refiners' trade group doubled its lobbying the same year the refiners posted their highest profits from the capacity they deliberately destroyed.
Valero tripled its political contributions from the 2022 cycle to the 2024 cycle. $1.78 million to $5.66 million. This is the same company that closed its Benicia refinery in early 2026, removing another 145,000 barrels per day, and posted billions in quarterly profits.
And what are those politicians doing with all that money and all that influence?
They are not investigating why diesel is at $6 when crude does not justify it. They are not holding hearings on refining margins. They are not asking why companies that permanently removed capacity are posting record profits from the scarcity they created. They are not proposing legislation to incentivize new refining capacity or to regulate crack spreads that are running 3 to 5 times their historical average.
They are doing nothing. Because the money has purchased their silence.
This is the story that neither side of the political argument wants you to see. Blaming Trump and the Iran war is convenient because it puts the problem on one man and one policy decision. Defending Trump by saying the war is necessary and prices will come down is convenient because it avoids examining who is actually profiting and why.
The truth is bigger than either argument.
The war is the accelerant. It is not the cause.
The cause is structural. The refining industry used COVID as cover to permanently reduce capacity. Every crisis that has come since, Russia-Ukraine in 2022, the Iran war in 2026, hits American consumers harder than it should because the cushion was deliberately removed. The system has less margin for disruption. And every disruption generates larger profits for the companies that made the system more fragile by design.
Then those profits get recycled into political spending. $219 million in the 2024 cycle. $154 million in lobbying in a single year. That money buys silence. It buys inaction. It buys the absence of hearings, the absence of investigations, the absence of regulation. And the cycle repeats.
Close the refineries. Tighten the supply. Wait for the next crisis. Harvest the margins. Post record profits. Spend record amounts on politicians. Protect the arrangement. Let the American consumer absorb the cost.
That is not a free market. That is a captured market. And the capture was paid for with profits extracted from the people now paying $6.05 per gallon to drive to work, feed their families, and heat their homes.
The next time someone tells you diesel is expensive because of Trump, ask them why crude is below its inflation-adjusted highs from 2008 and 1980 but diesel is higher than it has ever been in history. Ask them what happened to the 11 refineries that closed since 2020. Ask them what a crack spread is and why it is running 3 to 5 times its historical average. Ask them how much Marathon, Valero, and Phillips 66 made last quarter. Ask them how much the oil and gas industry spent on the 2024 election.
- Rick Osborne