Today in Fascism

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The War On Iran Has Four Possible Outcomes
Only one of these four paths protects humanity—the other three are likely destroy it

This week Donald Trump threatened more war crimes on the people of Iran.

We are now in the most dangerous phase of this crisis, and pretending otherwise is reckless. As a human rights lawyer, I do not view war as an abstraction, a chessboard, or a television spectacle. I view it in terms of law, civilian life, state accountability, and foreseeable human devastation. If we are honest about the present moment, there are only four plausible scenarios from here. Three are catastrophic. The fourth is the only one consistent with constitutional government, international law, and basic human survival. It is also the one Donald Trump appears least willing to accept—but one our Congress must rally to ensure happens.

As of Monday this week the United States’ and Israel’s illegal war on Iran has killed 1,200 Iranians, mostly civilians. Up to one third of them are children—including the near 175 children killed by a U.S. military Tomahawk missile. Iran’s response has targeted military bases, resulting in reportedly 6 U.S. soldiers killed and 13 Israelis. Now, Trump is promising “Death, Fire, and Fury” and “twenty times” the damage if Iran does not unconditionally surrender.

In other words, we are running out of time to end this illegal war and prevent global and irreparable catastrophe. Right now we have four possible paths ahead of us. It is critical we rally and demand Congress act to enact Option Number Four.

Option One
The first scenario is that Trump eventually admits defeat and withdraws from Iran. In purely human terms, that would be preferable to escalation, but it would still come after an illegal war already launched without constitutional authority and under a pretext that has not been substantiated. The geopolitical consequences would be significant.

A failed American war would further erode U.S. credibility and likely accelerate a broader shift in influence toward China and Russia. Iran, having survived direct U.S.-Israeli assault, would emerge emboldened. Oil may no longer be pegged to the U.S. dollar as the global currency, devastating the US economy. None of this is favorable, though this is the bed Trump has made so far. But also, compared with what comes next, it is survivable.

Option Two

The second scenario is a ground invasion. Trump has not ruled that out. He has not ruled out a draft either. The Pentagon is already reportedly preparing to seek roughly $50 billion in supplemental funding for Middle East operations, a strong indication that the administration is contemplating a longer and more expensive war footing. A quick reminder that politicians lie when they say we cannot afford to fund universal healthcare, free public college, free school lunches, or affordable housing.

Anyone speaking casually about invading Iran is either ignorant of the facts or indifferent to the lives that would be destroyed. Invading Afghanistan and Iraq was already catastrophic. As I’ve cited before, a Brown University study documents an estimated 4.6 million civilians killed by western wars since 2001.

And Iran is not Iraq. Iran is about 1.63 million square kilometers—which is triple the size of Iraq. I has a population that recent estimates place in the low 90 million range—which is double that of Iraq. It’s largest city, Tehran, has a population of 9.6 million—larger than New York City. It is geographically vast, heavily populated, politically complex, and militarily formidable.

A U.S. ground invasion would not be a quick operation. It would be a regional inferno. Potentially millions could die. The global economy would likely be pushed into a prolonged recession. And because major powers would not passively watch such a war unfold, the risk of a broader world war would rise dramatically. Thus, option three.

Option Three
The third scenario is the use of nuclear weapons by Israel or the United States. That is the scenario many people still resist discussing openly because it sounds too horrible to contemplate. But refusing to contemplate it does not make it less real. This is not hyperbole. Research published in Nature Food and highlighted by Rutgers found that a large-scale nuclear war could kill more than 5 billion people through famine and system-wide collapse, even apart from the immediate blast deaths. In ordinary language, that means the deaths of four to six billion human beings within a relatively short period are well within the range of expert projections in a full nuclear exchange. It would be worse than any Hollywood film can imagine because movies still assume that civilization survives in recognizable form. Nuclear war does not promise survival. It promises planetary ruin. Thus, we must push for Option Four.

Option Four
That leaves the fourth scenario, which is the only morally serious option: Trump resigns or is impeached, the war is halted, and actual peace negotiations begin. With Trump removed from power, there is at least a possibility of returning to diplomacy, de-escalation, and meaningful non-proliferation efforts. History gives us a model. In the mid-1980s, the United States and Soviet Union moved from existential nuclear hostility toward negotiations that helped reduce the risk of annihilation. That kind of diplomacy is still possible, but only if the men driving this escalation are stopped. The obstacle, of course, is political cowardice. This would require the Republican Party to develop a spine and fulfill its constitutional duty. It would require Corporate Democrats to grow a spine and demand an end to this war. Instead, Hakeem Jeffries refuses to rule out funding this illegal attack on Iran with another $50B.

At present, it seems unlikely that Republicans and Corporate Democrats will grow a spine or a conscience. But unlikelihood is not an excuse for silence when the alternative is mass death.

Conclusion
Here’s the bottom line. This is not red versus blue. This is not left versus right. This is working people versus billionaires, civilians versus war planners, constitutional government versus authoritarian impulse. This is why the culture wars must stop. Because as bad as things are, they can get much worse. Trump has not ruled out the worst options. He has not ruled out sending American troops into a catastrophic ground war. He has not ruled out escalating further. He has already shown that he will ignore constitutional limits, and too many members of Congress still behave as though strongly worded statements are an adequate response to an unlawful war.

There is also a deeper pattern here that should disturb every serious observer. In 2013, Trump claimed Obama would bomb Iran to distract from his failures. In 2023, J.D. Vance warned against repeating in Iran the same mistake made in Iraq. Now they are doing exactly what they accused others of doing. That is not irony. It is the operating logic of fascist politics: accuse the other side of the crime you are preparing to commit yourself.

The legal and moral stakes are immense. Congress must act now to stop this war, cut off funding for unauthorized escalation, and reassert that the Constitution is not optional. Military service members must also remember that “I was just following orders” did not excuse unlawful conduct at Nuremberg, and it will not excuse it now. To those cheering this war from a distance, understand what you are cheering for: possible nuclear confrontation, higher prices for families already struggling, and the deaths of ordinary soldiers while the sons of powerful men remain far from the battlefield.

We need option four, and we need it immediately. Trump must be removed from the machinery of war before his recklessness becomes irreversible. If we fail to stop this now, history will not say we were uninformed. It will say we were warned and did too little.
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JUST IN: After attending a closed-door, classified briefing on the war with Iran, Sen. Chris Murphy says the Trump administration’s plans are far more incoherent than the public has been told.

Murphy said lawmakers spent two hours in a classified briefing reviewing the administration’s strategy. While he emphasized he cannot reveal classified details, he said what he heard raises serious concerns about the lack of clear objectives and planning.

Here is Sen. Chris Murphy’s full thread:

I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public.

I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are.

Here's what I can share:

Maybe the lead is that the war goals DO NOT involve destroying Iran's nuclear weapons program. This is, uh...surprising...since Trump says over and over this is a key goal.

But then of course we already know air strikes can't wipe out their nuclear material.

Second, they confirmed "regime change" is also NOT on the list. So, they are going to spend hundreds of billions of your taxpayer dollars, get a whole bunch of Americans killed, and a hardline regime - probably a MORE anti-American hardline regime - will still be in charge.

Ok, so what ARE the goals? It seems, primarily, destroying lots of missiles and boats and drone factories.

But the question that stumped them: what happens when you stop bombing and they restart production?

They hinted at more bombing. Which is, of course, endless war.

And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN. I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don't know how to get it safely back open.

Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.
 
I debated a few of my Liberal Christian friends and Pastors back in 2020 about their vote for the mask and jab mandates and their vote for Joe. How could one claim Christ and then support abortion on Demand and madated Jabs or get fired. Pastor Louis was 100% wrong on the jabs and lost his sister to sudden and quick death after her initial jabs. Two other souls i debated died of cardiac arrests. A few other souls quit on their faith because.

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