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[Kicker4Life]

Notice the top 5 counties for hospitalizations are all Southern Cal. Also note, no flows going on and only up up up after the impact from opening so fast started.
View attachment 8067

I looked at that char online. When you hover over the LA “bar” next to the counties it breaks it down:

LA County:
Positive Covid Patients - 2,004
Suspected Covid Patients - 666
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 529
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 103
ICU Available beds - 1,334

Orange CO
Positive Covid Patients - 659
Suspected Covid Patients - 180
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 224
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 26
ICU Available beds - 406

All counties as a whole:
ICU positive patients grew by 64 over the past 6 days. Which is a slowing/plateau from the prior 6 days (311). I also noted how ICU bed availability is virtually flat from where it was on 5/2 (3922) to where it is on 7/6 (3,925).

I get and appreciate the concerns but these numbers don’t support what I’m hearing in the media.

 

[Keepermom2]

Well, re the border some people aren't stopping at imperial or San Diego county but coming up to LA. We don't know what percentage it is but it isn't insignificant. The highest confirmed cases over the weekend in San Diego were in the zip codes right along the Mexican border. Look at the numbers out of Yuma Arizona as well. It's not the only factor, but we know by this point it is definitely one of them.

I agree with you that the state should be doing more contact tracing to determine this. But instead we have what contact tracers we do have in the US being given stupid orders like don't ask people if they've attended protests. It's exactly this which contact tracing is useful for: where are the problem areas. It's not useful for determining apersons contacts and then if someone was riding on a subway putting 1000s of people into qurantine. We actually see eye to eye on this and this is actually how we should be constructing our contact tracing. Instead the left has wanted to immitate South Korea (which is impossible because Americans don't even return their phone call) and the right has said no. It's why California's contact tracing (in a blue state run by almost all blue politicians) is a disaster just as much as Texas'.

I agree with almost everything you said. I do believe the boarder plays a role but I have seen no evidence that it is "significant" to our numbers or that it plays a role in OC at all. I will say one thing political....Republicans and Democrats alike are to blame for us not being prepared in any way shape or form which we should have been somewhat prepared given the biological weapon threat, and for States not having proper somewhat updated systems of any kind.

 

[Keepermom2]

I looked at that char online. When you hover over the LA “bar” next to the counties it breaks it down:

LA County:
Positive Covid Patients - 2,004
Suspected Covid Patients - 666
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 529
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 103
ICU Available beds - 1,334

Orange CO
Positive Covid Patients - 659
Suspected Covid Patients - 180
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 224
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 26
ICU Available beds - 406

All counties as a whole:
ICU positive patients grew by 64 over the past 6 days. Which is a slowing/plateau from the prior 6 days (311). I also noted how ICU bed availability is virtually flat from where it was on 5/2 (3922) to where it is on 7/6 (3,925).

I get and appreciate the concerns but these numbers don’t support what I’m hearing in the media.

The hospitals have been mandated to increase ICU beds over the last week. Why are you using 6 days to calculate a weekly average? Why do you think they closed bars? Why do you think they closed the beaches for the fourth of July weekend? I said a couple of weeks ago as you know, if the weekly increases keep occurring, they will start doing something. What has been said for the State is that we have had 50% increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks. If you listened to Newsom yesterday, he said something about a decrease over the last few days but that information isn't accurate because over the weekend they only have 97% of hospitals reporting so of course the numbers are distorted.

 

[Grace T.]

The hospitals have been mandated to increase ICU beds over the last week. Why are you using 6 days to calculate a weekly average? Why do you think they closed bars? Why do you think they closed the beaches for the fourth of July weekend? I said a couple of weeks ago as you know, if the weekly increases keep occurring, they will start doing something. What has been said for the State is that we have had 50% increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks. If you listened to Newsom yesterday, he said something about a decrease over the last few days but that information isn't accurate because over the weekend they only have 97% of hospitals reporting so of course the numbers are distorted.

Again, hospitalizations isn't a good number. If you are delivering, they run a COVID test. You come back positive, you are in a bed, you are counted as COVID hospitalized even if you aren't showing symptoms. The baby comes down with it, the baby is counted as COVID hospitalized too. My counsin had a kidney stone, was COVID tested, asymptomatic yet is a COVID hospitalized case (we think he got it at a protest or a preprotest party). The number is about as useful as total cases. The ICU numbers are a much better proxy. It's also a better indication of whether the cases are serious or not.

 

[Keepermom2]

The hospitals have been mandated to increase ICU beds over the last week. Why are you using 6 days to calculate a weekly average? Why do you think they closed bars? Why do you think they closed the beaches for the fourth of July weekend? I said a couple of weeks ago as you know, if the weekly increases keep occurring, they will start doing something. What has been said for the State is that we have had 50% increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks. If you listened to Newsom yesterday, he said something about a decrease over the last few days but that information isn't accurate because over the weekend they only have 97% of hospitals reporting so of course the numbers are distorte

I looked at that char online. When you hover over the LA “bar” next to the counties it breaks it down:

LA County:
Positive Covid Patients - 2,004
Suspected Covid Patients - 666
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 529
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 103
ICU Available beds - 1,334

Orange CO
Positive Covid Patients - 659
Suspected Covid Patients - 180
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 224
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 26
ICU Available beds - 406

All counties as a whole:
ICU positive patients grew by 64 over the past 6 days. Which is a slowing/plateau from the prior 6 days (311). I also noted how ICU bed availability is virtually flat from where it was on 5/2 (3922) to where it is on 7/6 (3,925).

I get and appreciate the concerns but these numbers don’t support what I’m hearing in the media.

I went back and plugged the numbers in and we would still have a 19% growth in 6 days thus increasing hospitalizations at 19% every 6 days and that extended out the reaching capacity date by 2 weeks so mid September.

 

[Kicker4Life]

The hospitals have been mandated to increase ICU beds over the last week. Why are you using 6 days to calculate a weekly average? Why do you think they closed bars? Why do you think they closed the beaches for the fourth of July weekend? I said a couple of weeks ago as you know, if the weekly increases keep occurring, they will start doing something. What has been said for the State is that we have had 50% increase in hospitalizations over the last 2 weeks. If you listened to Newsom yesterday, he said something about a decrease over the last few days but that information isn't accurate because over the weekend they only have 97% of hospitals reporting so of course the numbers are distorted.

It’s not an average. It is an observation. I’m not debunking your concerns just the media narrative cause the stats don’t match.


Newsome - ask him why his Winery didn’t have to closewhen everyone else did. Ask him why he won’t touch the coveted $110B
What I do see are “dramatic” increases in cases and ICU occupancy 12 to 14 days after the massive protests in LA. But those where will “allowed”????

 

[Keepermom2]

Again, hospitalizations isn't a good number. If you are delivering, they run a COVID test. You come back positive, you are in a bed, you are counted as COVID hospitalized even if you aren't showing symptoms. The baby comes down with it, the baby is counted as COVID hospitalized too. My counsin had a kidney stone, was COVID tested, asymptomatic yet is a COVID hospitalized case (we think he got it at a protest or a preprotest party). The number is about as useful as total cases. The ICU numbers are a much better proxy. It's also a better indication of whether the cases are serious or not.

I have already explained it is about the number of people in a hospital bed. Whether you are tested positive for COVID or not there are a limited number of hospital beds period. So regardless of whether these people are in a hospital bed for COVID or not, they are still in a hospital bed and if all of the people aren't positive for COVID, we still are running an increase in hospitalizations of 30% per week. That is exactly why all of the data analysis experts use hospitalizations and ICU hospitalizations as key indicators.

 

[Grace T.]

I have already explained it is about the number of people in a hospital bed. Whether you are tested positive for COVID or not there are a limited number of hospital beds period. So regardless of whether these people are in a hospital bed for COVID or not, they are still in a hospital bed and if all of the people aren't positive for COVID, we still are running an increase in hospitalizations of 30% per week. That is exactly why all of the data analysis experts use hospitalizations and ICU hospitalizations as key indicators.

My cousin, though, isn't an increased hospitalization. He probably would have had the kidney stone regardless of whether there's an epidemic now or not, and if beds are a measure we are doing better than the same time period in 2019 without an epidemic (because of the lower elective procedures). The only reason you believe it is a problem is because you believe the model showing exponential growth. The models, though, have been repeatedly shown to be wrong and are only guesses not really backed up by data, just the assumption that what's happening now will go on forever. That's where I'm critical of the so-called experts. It could be, but maybe not. Everyone is just guessing. If the other patterns hold, my guess is we are in the middle of it.

 

[Keepermom2]

I have already explained it is about the number of people in a hospital bed. Whether you are tested positive for COVID or not there are a limited number of hospital beds period. So regardless of whether these people are in a hospital bed for COVID or not, they are still in a hospital bed and if all of the people aren't positive for COVID, we still are running an increase in hospitalizations of 30% per week. That is exactly why all of the data analysis experts use hospitalizations and ICU hospitalizations as key indicators.

By the way, OC uses a 3 day average in hospitalizations which I don't use because like I said, weekend numbers aren't complete. I do calculations on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays if they have 100% hospitals reporting.

 

[watfly]

I looked at that char online. When you hover over the LA “bar” next to the counties it breaks it down:

LA County:
Positive Covid Patients - 2,004
Suspected Covid Patients - 666
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 529
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 103
ICU Available beds - 1,334

Orange CO
Positive Covid Patients - 659
Suspected Covid Patients - 180
ICU Positive Covid Patients - 224
ICU Suspected Covid Patients - 26
ICU Available beds - 406

All counties as a whole:
ICU positive patients grew by 64 over the past 6 days. Which is a slowing/plateau from the prior 6 days (311). I also noted how ICU bed availability is virtually flat from where it was on 5/2 (3922) to where it is on 7/6 (3,925).

I get and appreciate the concerns but these numbers don’t support what I’m hearing in the media.

There is no significant evidence to suggest that SoCal will run out of ICU beds.

A note on the border, my buddy who is the medical director/chief of staff for very large healthcare organization, indicated that the border patients were mostly impacting the Chula Vista and Imperial Valley hospitals. I read an article a week or so ago that mentioned some of those Imperial Valley patients are rolling over to San Diego and Orange County. IDK why they'd come to the OC, but the article mentioned 24 from IV in OC ICU beds (can't find the article so I'm only stating that as an observation).

 

[Keepermom2]

My cousin, though, isn't an increased hospitalization. He probably would have had the kidney stone regardless of whether there's an epidemic now or not, and if beds are a measure we are doing better than the same time period in 2019 without an epidemic (because of the lower elective procedures). The only reason you believe it is a problem is because you believe the model showing exponential growth. The models, though, have been repeatedly shown to be wrong and are only guesses not really backed up by data, just the assumption that what's happening now will go on forever. That's where I'm critical of the so-called experts. It could be, but maybe not. Everyone is just guessing. If the other patterns hold, my guess is we are in the middle of it.

The models that have been wrong were early on when historical data was not available or not complete enough to be useful. Apparently the Counties think it is a problem too considering the fact they started closing places again at the end of last week like I predicted would happen 2 weeks ago if we kept running increases. I also checked on the increases with an in charge nurse at a large hospital in OC. She confirmed what I calculated.

 

[Keepermom2]

There is no significant evidence to suggest that SoCal will run out of ICU beds.

A note on the border, my buddy who is the medical director/chief of staff for very large healthcare organization, indicated that the border patients were mostly impacting the Chula Vista and Imperial Valley hospitals. I read an article a week or so ago that mentioned some of those Imperial Valley patients are rolling over to San Diego and Orange County. IDK why they'd come to the OC, but the article mentioned 24 from IV in OC ICU beds (can't find the article so I'm only stating that as an observation).

Interesting. I read some articles too but there didn't appear to be any evidence of numbers etc. Transparency from our Government would be nice.

 

[Grace T.]

The models that have been wrong were early on when historical data was not available or not complete enough to be useful. Apparently the Counties think it is a problem too considering the fact they started closing places again at the end of last week like I predicted would happen 2 weeks ago if we kept running increases. I also checked on the increases with an in charge nurse at a large hospital in OC. She confirmed what I calculated.

Well we know this because of 1 location: Sweden. Sweden has been much criticized for doing nothing to slow the spread (it's not really true...they did social distance, but didn't have a hard lock down). But in the past couple weeks both cases and deaths have fallen despite a new emphasis on the government on testing. The other major revision was revising their nursing home protocols. It shouldn't have happened under the models, but it did, which has the so-called experts baffled. The other hard hit European countries also aren't at herd immunity but have opened faster than we have (my son's little UK GK pen pal was out of school maybe a month and just wrapped up).

I agreed with you on the reclosing. It's just my opinion they are stupid and won't do very much, because I suspect most of the transmission is taking place at private homes (my neighbors had a kegger 2 weekends ago a big BBQ over the 4th...young 20 somethings).

 

[Keepermom2]

I hope I am wrong and I hope we all of a sudden see a steep decline in hospitalizations. That would be great. My point has always been, the lock downs aren't about preventing anyone from dying...it started because of capacity concerns and various levels of shut down continue because of capacity concerns. I hope the recent mandates changes the picture such that our kids will be allowed to play soccer normally in the fall some time. We won't know that for another 14 to 21 days.

 

[Keepermom2]

Well we know this because of 1 location: Sweden. Sweden has been much criticized for doing nothing to slow the spread (it's not really true...they did social distance, but didn't have a hard lock down). But in the past couple weeks both cases and deaths have fallen despite a new emphasis on the government on testing. The other major revision was revising their nursing home protocols. It shouldn't have happened under the models, but it did, which has the so-called experts baffled. The other hard hit European countries also aren't at herd immunity but have opened faster than we have (my son's little UK GK pen pal was out of school maybe a month and just wrapped up).

I agreed with you on the reclosing. It's just my opinion they are stupid and won't do very much, because I suspect most of the transmission is taking place at private homes (my neighbors had a kegger 2 weekends ago a big BBQ over the 4th...young 20 somethings).

Yeah I saw parties on FB. Ugh

 

[Grace T.]

I hope I am wrong and I hope we all of a sudden see a steep decline in hospitalizations. That would be great. My point has always been, the lock downs aren't about preventing anyone from dying...it started because of capacity concerns and various levels of shut down continue because of capacity concerns. I hope the recent mandates changes the picture such that our kids will be allowed to play soccer normally in the fall some time. We won't know that for another 14 to 21 days.

I don't think we'll see a steep decline. The LA pattern will likely show a peak sometime between now and 3 weeks out followed by a very slow decline). That's based just on trig and the curves and what ours looks like in relation to the others, on the assumption it's mathematically rigid, and the decline in social distancing which will slow that process down.

 

[Keepermom2]

I don't think we'll see a steep decline. The LA pattern will likely show a peak sometime between now and 3 weeks out followed by a very slow decline). That's based just on trig and the curves and what ours looks like in relation to the others, on the assumption it's mathematically rigid, and the decline in social distancing which will slow that process down.

It is so hard to look at any patterns because the protests and opening up occurred simultaneously. Yeah I do not see any steep decline coming but the slow decline would be nice but doubtful. We shall see.

 

[Keepermom2]

Well we know this because of 1 location: Sweden. Sweden has been much criticized for doing nothing to slow the spread (it's not really true...they did social distance, but didn't have a hard lock down). But in the past couple weeks both cases and deaths have fallen despite a new emphasis on the government on testing. The other major revision was revising their nursing home protocols. It shouldn't have happened under the models, but it did, which has the so-called experts baffled. The other hard hit European countries also aren't at herd immunity but have opened faster than we have (my son's little UK GK pen pal was out of school maybe a month and just wrapped up).

I agreed with you on the reclosing. It's just my opinion they are stupid and won't do very much, because I suspect most of the transmission is taking place at private homes (my neighbors had a kegger 2 weekends ago a big BBQ over the 4th...young 20 somethings).

Oddly enough, this came up today. New York times reported it too but I didn't want to pay to read it. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/sweden-has-become-the-worlds-cautionary-tale/

 

[Keepermom2]

Well we know this because of 1 location: Sweden. Sweden has been much criticized for doing nothing to slow the spread (it's not really true...they did social distance, but didn't have a hard lock down). But in the past couple weeks both cases and deaths have fallen despite a new emphasis on the government on testing. The other major revision was revising their nursing home protocols. It shouldn't have happened under the models, but it did, which has the so-called experts baffled. The other hard hit European countries also aren't at herd immunity but have opened faster than we have (my son's little UK GK pen pal was out of school maybe a month and just wrapped up).

I agreed with you on the reclosing. It's just my opinion they are stupid and won't do very much, because I suspect most of the transmission is taking place at private homes (my neighbors had a kegger 2 weekends ago a big BBQ over the 4th...young 20 somethings).

Sweden's Covid Experiment is Now a Certified Failure

Open Air Failure Sweden captured international attention for its decision to buck the trend on mandated shut-ins. The results are now in as Sweden Has Become

www.thestreet.com

 

[dad4]

BTW, here's the counter that shows the limited utility of masks: Japan. Japan has a long history of universal mask wearing. Unlike our society, they aren't removing them for discussions or wearing them under their nose. They aren't using bandanas. Everyone said in June that Japan shows what universal mask wearing can do. But Japan is undergoing a second mini wave (because their first wasn't very much, and their wave like ours seems to be taking place where previously did not have outbreaks leading credence to the waves are rigid and you just have to go through them theory). If masks were the magic bullet, the numbers shouldn't be rising in Japan. But it's getting warm there and people are going indoors and like us aren't always wearing their masks when they around with a friend inside. So what happens, they get a little mini wave which shouldn't be possible if masks were such a magic bullet.

Don't get me wrong. I think masks do mitigate things. If I were emperor I would put in place a mask program so every American had a mask better than a surgical math, cloth masks, or bandana. But then I probably wouldn't have done premature lockdowns or sent COVID positive patients back into nursing homes, and I'd probably hard shut the southern border. Beyond that nothing much has made a material impact.

Japan has had fewer infections in 6 months than Florida has had in 2 days.

The “mini wave” in Japan is very, very, small. You’re right that masks are not the only thing we need. But they sure look like a decent sized step in the right direction.

 

[Lionel Hutz]

The CFR continues to fall and is now below what we consider epidemic proportions.

Do you have a link to a study or report that shows this -- genuinely would be interested to read up on something that claims what CFR defines an epidemic and where the CFR is currently falling.