# 06 LAFC vs 06 TFA this weekend (9/7/19): Predictions and Discussion



## Kante (Sep 4, 2019)

The first 06 LAFC (home) vs 06 TFA (away) match of the season is coming up this weekend, and, heads-up upfront, this is a longer post. The game start is listed right now (9/4) as 3pm at Cal State LA. Should be a fun one to watch. TFA is ranked as the #1 DA team in the country and LAFC is ranked #2 - https://youthsoccerrankings.us/rankings/National/14/Boys/

*Here’s the predict: LAFC  1 vs TFA 3. *(assumes TFA D steps up... the more accurate predict based on better data will be for the Jan 25th match)

*Here’s why:*

*1) Home field advantage for LAFC won't be enough.*

For most 06 teams, home vs away is a significant variable. However, while LAFC has a significant home field advantage vs most other teams coming into Cal State LA, the 06 TFA team tends plays well on the road. LAFC's goal home field differential for this match is only about +1 goals in LAFC's favor and that likely is not enough. For context, TFA won the last match at Cal State LA 3-2.

*2) Roster changes. *

*TFA*
Last season, TFA averaged close to five goals scored per match, and, in their first 2019-20 match, beat Ventura Fusion 10-1 without one of their top goal scorers - DBA, who averaged 1.56 goals per game - so the TFA offense seems fully operational/intact.

However, TFA's defense faded as last season wore on. Seems like TFA addressed this issue by adding six new players - GK from LAG, what looks like three defenders from LAFC and what looks like two mids from LAUFA. 

LAFC is not Ventura Fusion so will be interesting to see what happens this weekend with TFA's new D.

*LAFC*
LAFC looks like they made up the players they lost (am making an assumption that LAFC lost the players to TFA rather than cut the players. if this assumption is not correct please direct message) by bringing in new four players from the Pateadores, Strikers, FC Golden State  and Sparta (CSL-silver).

However, given that LAFC had one of the best 06 D's in the country last season, the loss of defensive players to TFA does not bode well (again, caveat here is how significant of a role did LAFC players who went to TFA play in LAFC's d)

*Here’s keys to the game:*

*1) How does TFA's defense perform?*

Last year, TFA D's ended up allowing almost three goals per game after March 1 2019, including an 0-5 loss to LAFC. This is compared to allowing about one goal per game before March 1. Won't beat a dead horse but a lot of this change likely had to do with non-player related drama within the TFA club (the 05 team was also similarly affected).

So which TFA defense shows up on Saturday? The match against Ventura wasn't much of a benchmark, so will be interesting to see.

*2) Is DBA back, or suspended for more games?*

DBA received a "dissent" yellow card in the last match of the season last year but typically this would not result in a next game suspension, so there's something else going on. Again, on average, 1.56 goals scored per game from DBA in 2018-19, and, although he did not score against LAFC last season, it looks like he consumed a considerable amount of their defensive attention and freed up others to score.

*3) How does LAFC defense do?*

Last year, LAFC's defense was one of the best in the country, allowing an average of just over .5 goals per game, and more importantly, only allowing opposing teams to score 20% of the goals they would typically score. If the bulk of the LAFC D moved over to TFA, that's a pretty big deal, and there will be a lot of pressure on the current LAFC D to step up.

*4) Who scores at critical points in the game? *

In the first half, the key items are whether either team scores an early goal in the first ten minutes (looking at the numbers TFA is the more likely of the two to get an early goal) and will TFA be able to hold it together when LAFC pushes hard/clamps down from the 21st to 30th minutes?

However, the result likely will be decided in the 2nd half, making the match essentially a 40 minute game. 

In the two close matches last season, 75% of the goals scored by both teams were scored in the 2nd half.

One quick note is that, last year, the 06 LAFC was different from the 05 and 04 teams in that they didn't tend to disproportionately score in the first ten minutes. Reasonably, could anticipate a change in tactics in 2019-20 (getting that trademark LAFC early shock and awe going) and is something to watch for in this match.
_______

Net net, there will be a lot of pressure on both teams, but these kind of games are an extraordinary opportunity. It is also important to remember that the boys on these two teams are only 13 years old.

Best of luck to both teams!


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## 3leches (Sep 4, 2019)

I'm going to with LAFC for the win. They have improved their defense with one of TFA top center backs and have moved another strong player into the CB position that was playing on the left wing. I don't think TFA forwards will as effective this year because they will no longer have the " bigger, faster, stronger " attribute in their favor as many teams have picked up larger players in general and everyone is spurting now.


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## Legit_play (Sep 5, 2019)

3leches said:


> I'm going to with LAFC for the win. They have improved their defense with one of TFA top center backs and have moved another strong player into the CB position that was playing on the left wing. I don't think TFA forwards will as effective this year because they will no longer have the " bigger, faster, stronger " attribute in their favor as many teams have picked up larger players in general and everyone is spurting now.


That top CB from TFA was generally the reason TFAs  GAA soared, big/tall and fast doesn't always equate to smart on the pitch and the core on TFA has pretty much stayed the same. This should be an outstanding match and will definitely be the early measuring stick for the division. This is a coin flip
prediction and will probably depend on whose "D" meshes together better. By the way, which center back are you talking about, 05 or 06 because the 05 CB is a stud...06 eehh.


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## Legit_play (Sep 7, 2019)

Final TFA 4-3 LAFC


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## Kiko9 (Sep 7, 2019)

What a game!!!


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## 3leches (Sep 7, 2019)

I heard LAFC was up 3-1 at the half..Any insight ?


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## Legit_play (Sep 7, 2019)

LAFC was up 3-0 in the 1st half then allowed 4 unanswered goals to concede victory to TFA. Most teams would have given up but, a late header goal off a corner kick attempt before the half whistle bled life into TFA and then it was LAFC who had to try and stop the push from TFA, talk about turning the tables on them...there was no quit in the visitors play, I think the heat may have played a factor in the start of the match for TFA because they seemed a bit flat footed and may have compounded issues for LAFC in the end of the match. What a home coming of sorts for the 3 players who switched camps in the off season and went to TFA. The bench for TFA stepped up in a huge way scoring 3 out of the 4 goals and seems to have answered  any concerns with the substitutes. Note: Both squads debuted new coaches for their clubs and this matched lived up to it's hype. It was a roller coaster ride for the crowd for sure for those rooting for which ever side. TFA's coach was in Oceanside last weekend with the 05 squad so this was his 06 league debut.


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## Kiko9 (Jan 21, 2020)

Legit_play said:


> LAFC was up 3-0 in the 1st half then allowed 4 unanswered goals to concede victory to TFA. Most teams would have given up but, a late header goal off a corner kick attempt before the half whistle bled life into TFA and then it was LAFC who had to try and stop the push from TFA, talk about turning the tables on them...there was no quit in the visitors play, I think the heat may have played a factor in the start of the match for TFA because they seemed a bit flat footed and may have compounded issues for LAFC in the end of the match. What a home coming of sorts for the 3 players who switched camps in the off season and went to TFA. The bench for TFA stepped up in a huge way scoring 3 out of the 4 goals and seems to have answered  any concerns with the substitutes. Note: Both squads debuted new coaches for their clubs and this matched lived up to it's hype. It was a roller coaster ride for the crowd for sure for those rooting for which ever side. TFA's coach was in Oceanside last weekend with the 05 squad so this was his 06 league debut.


Who's wins this weekend?


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## Kante (Jan 21, 2020)

Kiko9 said:


> Who's wins this weekend?


tomorrow...


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## SoCal23 (Jan 22, 2020)

TFA is dealing with a few injuries to their defense. It will be entertaining that's for sure...


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