# 06 LAFC vs 06 TFA this weekend (1/25/19): Predictions and Discussion



## Kante (Jan 22, 2020)

The second 06 LAFC vs 06 TFA match is coming up this weekend. TopDrawer ranks TFA as the #1 team in the country and LAFC as the #9 team. 

If folks are interested, here's the particulars listed for the match. Please double-check time/place on the USSDA website to be sure though.

*Where: *Pioneer High School Stadium in Whittier, CA (10800 Benavon Street)
*When: *Game start for the 06 match is Saturday (1/25) at 11am

The predict for this match is ..Well, first, let's do a quick review of TFA and LAFC's seasons so far. 

Kidding. 

*TFA 2 - LAFC 1*

Last match w/ these two teams in September was a humdinger, with LAFC going up 3-0 early, and then TFA grabbing one back to make it 3-1 LAFC just before half. TFA then rallied in the second half for three more to win 4-3 TFA. 

Also, lots of subtext, with players moving back and forth between rosters, plus all these players and coaches are familiar with each other from years of competing with and against each other coming up.

And while LAFC's Academy Director talked a good game last year about playing players up to drive their development, LAFC has only consistently played one player rostered w/ the 06s up w/ the 05s. 

In contrast, TFA has consistently played a number of 06s up. To be fair, the team's respective 05 team are of significantly different quality (The algo has the LAFC 05s beating the TFA 05s 5-1).

The analysis below assumes that all TFA rostered 06s play w/ their respective teams i.e. JR plays w/ LAFC 05s (since he's been doing this all year) and the various TFA 06s who have been playing up play w/ the 06s for this match.

Now, let's look at their season so far.

*LAFC*
Looking at trend lines, LAFC has the talent to rise to the occasion, scoring three on TFA in their first match, and then coming back from being down 0-2 early to Real SoCal for a 8-2 win. But, if those two results are removed from the trend line, their offense is a fairly pedestrian +22%. That is, LAFC in most matches only score +22% more goals than the opponent, on average, typically allows. 

For a club with perennial #1 in the country aspirations, that's not quite what one would expect, and they're going to need more against TFA since TFA has only allowed .33 goals per game since mid October (with four shut-outs)

LAFC has had ten players score at least one goal this season. Decent but a little below what one would be looking for from a top ten team, and #19/ZF and #3/GG have accounted for more than 50% of LAFC's goals.

Below is the chart for when - during matches - LAFC scores goals. They tend to wear teams down and then take advantage at the end of the 1st half and the end of the second half, with more than 40% of LAFC's goals in those two ten minute periods



Defensively, LAFC has been better but... Excluding the TFA results, LAFC has, on average, only allowed .75 goals per match, but were trending int he wrong direction in 2019 and now allow -41% goals than the opponent, on average, typically scores. That is, if an opponent averages 3 goals per match, LAFc will give up two goals to that opponent. Which is good but, again, not great.

Below is the chart for when - during matches - LAFC allows goals. They tend to allow goals in the first ten minutes of a match, and then between the 51st to 60th minutes, and 60% of the goals scored against LAFC are score din these two windows. The caveat on this is that LAFC has only allowed 10 goals so far this season, so small sample size, particularly given that TFA accounted for four of those goals in that first match.



*TFA*
Looking at TFA, at first glance, overall, it looks like they've been trending the wrong way, particularly offensively. However, when one takes into account that TFA has consistently been playing 06 players up, it's a different story. But, it's also hard to quantify. The key players for TFA, who have been playing up, are #4/AM and #5/EC (yes, even though EC hasn't scored a goal an dis listed as defender...). With those players presumably back in the line-up, TFA's offense is about +40% than its current trend line. 

So far, TFA has had 12 players score at least one goal this season and have 12 players who have scored at least one goal this year, and six players who have contributed almost 90% of their goals (goal totals range form 8 to 15 goals scored), which seems to indicate that they get a lot of scoring from ball movement rather than individual play.

Below is the chart for when - during matches - TFA scores goals. TFA looks like they're committed to keeping a constant medium pressure on other teams over the course of the match, but also turn that pressure up a notch in the second half starting at the 51st minute.



Defensively, TFA has seems to have made a conscious decision to get better. in their first five matches of the year (thru Sept), TFA gave up an average of 1.8 goals per game, and per the game reports, it looked like TFA would lose focus a bit. In their six matches since (from Oct on), TFA has given .33 goals per game, with four shutouts. So, more focused now.

Below is the chart for when - during matches - TFA allows goals. They tend to allow the most 21st to 30th minutes and then again in teh 51st to 60th minutes. Interestingly, TFA is lock down at the end of the 1st half and close to lock down for the last 20 of matches. Which are the two time periods when when LAFC tends to score 40% of their goals. 

The caveat on this is that TFA has only allowed 10 goals so far this season, so small sample size, particularly given that LAFC accounted for three of those goals in that first match.



Key to the Match:

*LAFC*

LAFC needs to lock-up/contain TFA's #4 in the mid and TFA's #5 distributing the ball from the back line
LAFC has to take advantage in the 21st to 30th minutes and/or 51st to 60th minutes to score, and push hard to get a goal in the 31st to 40th minutes
LAFC, defensively, has to start strong in the first ten minutes, and make sure they don't overextend forward in the 51st to 60th minutes to allow TFA quick counters
*TFA*

TFA has to manage LAFC's #19 and #3 1v1, and keep them form breaking thru with individual play for a goal. 
TFA has to continue to have lock-down D in the 31 to 40th and 71st to 80th minutes, maintain focus/discipline at the 21st to 30th minutes and don't get caught in back and forth at the 51st to 60th minutes
TFA needs to take advantage in the first 10 minutes to see if they get an early goal or two.
Both teams have demonstrated the emotional strength to com back from an early deficit, and would expect strong attendance at this match for a good, intense atmosphere. 

There were four cards at the last match but three of the four came in a three minute period in the 2nd half, so, obviously, it will likely be a hard fought - but not over the top - match.

Best of luck to both teams!


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## Kante (Jan 22, 2020)

so quick add. credit where credit is due. LAFC's AW is an 06 but has been rostered w/ the 05s since 2017-18. Having said that, AW has also played some matches every year w/ his 06 age group.

Because AW has been rostered consistently w/ the 05s for several years, had not been counting him as playing up. but looking at, that's not accurate. (thanks for the catch!)

So, LAFC has two 06 players who have been playing up this year, not just the one.


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## Kante (Jan 22, 2020)

so what are the wildcards for this match? 

*Will AW and JR play in the 06 match for LAFC*? Don't know but since the 2017 season, when AW has played w/ his age group, he averages .73 goals per match. since 2018, when JR has played w/ his age group, he averages .45 goals per match (both better than sharp stick in the eye, for sure)
Some comments about *TFA player "injuries"* have been coming out of the TFA camp... we'll see...
What about the *home/away effect?* TFA plays about -80% better defensively at home (ironically, they play -20% worse offensively at home) LAFC is slightly worse on both sides of the ball playing away. Specifically, LAFC plays about +8% worse on the defensive side away, and about -13% worse on the offensive side playing away


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