# u14 -  05 LAFC vs 05 LAG (5/18/19) predicts and discussion: El Trafico de Academia Parte Tres ...



## Kante (May 15, 2019)

The final u14 LAFC (home) vs u14 LA Galaxy (away) 2018-19 match is coming up this weekend, and, heads-up upfront, this is a longer post. Last El Trafico de Academia match was 2-0 LAFC, as predicted. Now, there’s no way that – exactly predicting the result - will happen again. So, since the accurate prediction last time was just a one-off fluke, it would make sense to pick up the chips and head home, right? Nope.

(btw, here's a link to write-up from LAFC's pov from last match-up https://www.lafc.com/post/2018/12/09/academy-takeaways-u14-u15-wins-over-galaxy - a little over the top ... the phrase "almost telepathic precision" was used to describe LAFC u14/u15 passing... but still a decent read. And to go full LAFC fanboy, here's a LAFC video from the last LAG vs LAFC match - 



)

Here’s the predict for the last u14 El Trafico of 2018-19: *LAFC 3 vs LA Galaxy 1.*

*Here’s why LAFC will win:*

1) *It’s a home game for LAFC.*
LAFC has been scoring twice as many goals playing at home vs playing away through most of the season, and LAFC goal scoring home advantage will be too much for LA Galaxy to overcome.

2) *LAFC has more momentum going into the match.*
LAFC has outscored their last three opponents – that they’ve played with a full-strength squad - 20-1, including dominant 8-1 and 5-0 wins over the Legends and TFA, respectively. In particular, their offense, which has been problematic this season (relatively speaking), now seems like it’s getting back to 2017-18 form.

(note: “playing with a full strength 05 squad” doesn’t count the 9-2 or 4-0 results against Santa Barbara and the Pateadores since LAFC 06s contributed significantly in both these matches)

LA Galaxy, looked a little sluggish (relatively speaking) in their last three games, and, for example, playing the Legends at home, only won 4-1 while LAFC beat the Legends 8-1 two weeks prior.

3)* LAFC plays better as a team while LA Galaxy is still gelling (even though the season is almost over).*
Some points that stand out are that LAFC’s defensive line more consistently receives the ball in space and is better - and much faster - playing out of the back. Also, LAFC’s front line presses more coherently and has more off ball movement to create opportunities for multiple players to score.

To be fair, LAFC have most of the same players from last year and have their crazy success of the 2017-18 season to refer back to. LA Galaxy, on the other hand, added ten new players this year and clearly are still working to get everyone to fit together.​
*Here’s why LAFC will score three goals*

1) *LA Galaxy is very solid defensively, but...*
LA Galaxy has only allowed .8 goals per game when playing away this season, with six shutouts in ten away games. However, they allowed a number of late opportunities last match vs LAFC, and got lucky several times. 

2) *LA Galaxy will make it harder on LAFC than LAFC is used to (and vice versa), which will limit late game scoring but…*
Most teams can’t consistently compete w/ LAFC/LAG for the full 80 minutes, and break down at some point. And then LAFC and/or LA Galaxy take advantage.

For example, LAFC scores almost 40% of their goals in the last 20 minutes of the match, and, conversely, LA Galaxy scores about 1/3 of their goals in the last 20 minutes.

However, when playing each other, these trends don’t hold up. For example, in the second match, LAFC had a number of late opportunities to make the score 4-0 or even 5-0 but the LAFC players made mistakes in finishing they don’t usually make. Which is what happens when players get tired. Am thinking that LAFC’s staff will earn from this and make adjustments.

3) *Unlike last year, LAFC is missing a second top goal scorer, and scoring from the rest of the team has also dropped (both of which don’t matter in most games but do vs LAG) but…*
Last season in u13, LAFC had two players up top who accounted for 30 goals in 38 games played, and, when one looked at goals scored per 70 minutes, it was something like 3.5 goals scored per 70 between the two players. This season, one of those players left to go to TFA and the other who stayed w/ LAFC has seen his production decline significantly.

LAFC’s #6 is still solid, with 17 goals in 20 games - maintaining his ~one goal per game average from last year - but after that, it drops off for LAFC.

And when LAFC moves #8 up to the 9, this adjustment creates a gap in their mid. But, when they move #8 back to his more natural position in the mid, they lack finishing. Catch 22.

Finally, this season, scoring output from the rest of LAFC has declined a bit. For example, this season, after LAFC’s top four goal scorers, ten players account for just over 40% of all goals scored. Last season, after the top four goal scorers, twelve players accounted for almost 50% of all goals scored.​
*Why will LA Galaxy get on the board this match when they didn’t score last match?*
Really good question. In the last match, LA Galaxy put a shot off the wood work but maybe only had one to two other decent opportunities the whole rest of the game.

There’s a number of little things going on that are different from last match that likely lead to LA Galaxy scoring one goal this time.

1) *LA Galaxy’s offense is trending the right way - this time*
In the second match against LAFC, LA Galaxy’s offense was trending solidly down, but going into this last match, LAG’s offense is trending slightly up.

2) *LA Galaxy has fixed – to some extent – their negative “playing away” effect*
The LA Galaxy negative “playing away” effect is still present but is about 1/3 not as bad “playing away” going into this LAFC match as opposed to the last LAFC match.

3) *One of LAG’s top two goal scorers will knock one in*
Out of the 14 matches this season where LAG’s two top goal scorers - #29 and #8 – are both rostered, they have only been both kept scoreless once, against LAFC in the last match.

Some of LAFC’s success here had to do with LA Galaxy not providing great service to these forwards but LAFC also have the center backs to take away the size and speed advantages #29 and #8 rely on.

Once direct balls to #29 and #8 were being handled, LA Galaxy did not seem to have a lot of other ideas other than trying to take LAFC defenders 1x1 off the dribble.

Having said that, can’t see LAG’s two forwards both going for a second goose egg, and would guess that their goal comes off a set piece or corner.​
*Here are keys to the game:*
Many of these are similar to last match, but a few differences are important.

1) *Does LAFC score in the first ten minutes?*
This season, LAFC has outscored opponents 9-0 in the first ten minutes. Across all levels of play, early goals make things easier. Getting through the first ten minutes with the score 0-0 will be key to enabling LA Galaxy to keep the match manageable.

2) *What happens in minutes 11 to 20?*
After minute #10, LAFC slows down a bit and only outscores the opposition 7-4 in minutes 11 to 20. On the flip side, LA Galaxy tends to pick up the pace after getting a sense of their opposition and has outscored other teams 11 to 2 in this 11 to 20 minute time period.

For reference, one of the goals LAG allowed in minutes 11 to 20 was by LAFC in the 15th minute of their last match.

3) *Can LA Galaxy mids play together effectively?*
The one time during the last match when LA Galaxy started to control play was at the beginning of the second half when LAG’s #27 and #6 started to connect, and LAG’s back line started to look for #6 more. This will be key.

4) *Does LA galaxy get their goal early on?*
Again, am thinking that LAFC wants to win the u14 El Trafico series in aggregate, and to do so, if LAG gets one in, LAFC needs to win by two this match. So, if LA Galaxy plunks one in early, that will put pressure on LAFC to score more and likely lead to a more open game than if LA Galaxy remains scoreless for an extended period of time.​__________

It’s important to remember that even though there will be several potential national team players – maybe even a few possible future pro players – on the field, the boys on these two teams are only 13 and 14 years old. Best of luck to both teams! 

USSDA is listing the u14 LAFC vs. LAG match at Cal State LA on May 18th with a game start of 2:30pm.


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