# updated: u14/05 Improvement/Decline for the 2018-19 season (thru 5/12/19)



## Kante (May 23, 2019)

Here’s data on the most improved 2018-19 SoCal u14 teams - and least improved teams – through May 19th.

The goal of this (long) post is  - as the season’s coming to a close, and clubs and families are making decisions about next year - to provide some objective info for evaluating DA team development over time, relative to their peer group. 

Having said that, would love – and am sure it would be super helpful to others (plus cathartic for you...) – if folks would provide anecdotal feedback on what went on with teams this season, so please feel more than free to comment and reply to this thread. 

How many times per week did your son's practice? what did you think of the training? Was there anything else that contributed/took away from your son's team performance?

Will leave it to the clubs and families to interpret on whether or not the improvements or declines noted below were due to actual player development or lack thereof,  (i.e. good or bad coaching) or other reasons.

As this info was put together, it became apparent that there were a lot more non-“playing” challenges for the u14 teams than the u13s. These challenges included among other things: 

·  Losing key players from 2017-18 to other teams (e.g., LAUFA, Albion, LAGSD)
·  Significant staff changes midway thru the season (e.g., TFA and SD Surf)
·  A significant yoy increase in player injuries (e.g., Pateadores, Arsenal, LAFC - here’s a link to an article that says that taller u14s – due to growth spurts – are particularly injury prone: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3642005/)

So, with those caveats which affect some of the teams mentioned below, here’s the data.

If your team is not listed below or is another age group but you are interested in how they’re doing, send a note and will send over the requested team chart(s). 

The methodology for calc’ing the goal differential % that is used to measure progress over time is discussed at the end of the post 

*Most Improved #1: LAFC*
In 2017-18, LAFC won every match they played, and their aggregate goal differential in DA group play was north +100 goals in their favor.

And then the 2018-19 season started, and u14 LAFC – about a month after winning the 2005/u14 Concacaf Championship and after starting 2018-19 decently w/ a 4-0 win over FC Golden State - lost 0-3 loss to the newly revamped LA Galaxy and followed that match with 0-1 loss to Real SoCal…

What happened? 

Per the numbers, while LAFC still sported one of the best defenses in the country, they had some issues offensively. One of their top goal scorers in 2017-18 went to TFA for the 2018-19 season, and production was down from their other top goal scorer.

After the loss to RSC, LAFC made adjustments offensively, but were still trending the wrong way, and, per the numbers, things looked like they came to a head with a late January 0-0 tie with LAUFA. 

After this point, LAFC’s offense started to slowly improve, but it was a 1-2 loss in March to an underpowered TFA, that seemed to finally fully jumpstart LAFC’s offense back to 2017-18 form, with six subsequent wins in a row with a 31-3 margin, including a dominant 5-1 win over LA Galaxy.

As of May 19th, LAFC is now about 4x more competitive relative to their peers than at the beginning of the season.

Here’s the u14 LAFC goal differential % over time chart:



*Most Improved #2: Legends*
New to DA this year, the Legends started slow with a 2-5 loss to LAUFA in their first match of the season, but then proceeded to slowly build improvement week after week.

The Legends’ improvement has been anchored by a good defense that dramatically got better over its first five games and then kept that high level moving forward.

Offensively, it took a bit longer for the Legends to get going. After a decent start to the season in the first three matches, the Legends’ offense was held scoreless in three out of their next four games with goose eggs against TFA, FCG and LAFC. From that point on, however, it was also steady offensive improvement week after week. 

As of May 19th, the Legends are now about 2.7x more competitive with their peers than they were at the beginning of the season.

Here’s u14 Legends’ goal differential % over time chart:




*Most Improved #3: FC Golden State*
At the start of the 2018-19 season, FC Golden State had the most difficult schedule of any team in Southern California, playing LAFC, LA Galaxy and TFA in three of their first four games. FCG lost all of those first four matches by a combined margin of 0-18. 

So what to do? After the showcase, FCG added seven new players to their team roster and began rotating who would make the game day roster, per feedback, based on performance in practice.

After a weird January, where FCG was affected by the winter rains causing games to be rescheduled, FCG started turning in very competitive performances on both sides of the ball against some of the LA group’s top team including one goal losses to LAFC, LAG and TFA. 

As of May 19th, FC Golden State is now more than 2.5x more competitive with their peers than they were at the start of the season.

Here’s the u14 FC Golden State goal differential % over time chart:



*Least Improved #1: TFA*
It’s been a heckuva first u14 season for TFA. 

TFA started strong, winning its first seven matches by combined score of 34 – 7, but then TFA ran into LAFC for a 1-4 loss, and the level of difficulty increased for TFA as teams became familiar with their style of play and level of players.

Here's a couple of unique things that made it unnecessarily difficult for the TFA team:

the controversy caused first by the TFA DOC, aka the UCLA men’s coach who was caught up in the college admissions scandal
about two weeks after the news on their DOC hit, there was a brawl during a match with the LA Galaxy which led to three TFA starters being suspended for six matches.
Immediately post-brawl, TFA managed to pull out a 2-1 win over the LAFC, no mean feat, but then posted losses to Santa Barbara, Real SoCal and the Pateadores. 

So, with a strong start to the season and an unfortunate end, TFA netted out a downward trend line that have them as the least improved u14 team in SoCal - but with a big *asterisk* next to that assessment. 

As of May 19th, TFA was about 3x less competitive relative to their peers than they were at the beginning of the season.

Here’s the u14 TFA goal differential % over time chart:


*
Least Improved #2: Arsenal*
Arsenal starting decently and were solid/competitive for the first part of the season prior to the November Showcase. However, they then had some challenges after losing their key defensive midfielder to injury in the 3rd game of the November showcase.

Offensively, Arsenal has been fairly consistent over the season despite some player churn. 

Defensively, Arsenal still managed to put together solid performances thru February but really took a hit in March and early April, losing four matches in that time by a combined 4-18 goal differential. 

As of May 19th, Arsenal was about 2.4x less competitive relative to their peers than they were at the beginning of the season.

Here’s the u14 Arsenal goal differential % over time chart:



*Least Improved #3: LAUFA*
Despite losing a number of significant defensive players from 2017-18 to the LA Galaxy, LAUFA started the 2018-19 season well with solid wins against the Legends, Real SoCal and TFA by a combined goal differential of 12-4. 

However, LAUFA then ran into LAFC for a 0-9 October loss. (It should also be noted that then LAUFA had a very respectable 0-0 tie against a full strength LAFC squad later in the season.)

Offensively, LAUFA relied heavily on their #9 to score goals early in a match, and he’s accounted for close to 50% of their goals this year. That approach, while successful early, has been less and less effective over the course of the season.

Defensively, LAUFA has been getting worse over the course of the season, and bottomed out with a 2-5 loss to Santa Barbara. After that loss, it looks like LAUFA made adjustments and were more competitive in subsequent matches with LAFC, Real SoCal, the Legends and LA Galaxy.

One item that stands out is that LAUFA has 31 players now listed on their DA team roster while only having three players who have played all possible matches. Not sure what this is, but it bears noting

As of May 19th, LAUFA was about 2.2x less competitive relative to their peers than they were at the beginning of the season.

Here’s the u14 LAUFA goal differential % over time chart:


_________

Here’s the short version on the methodology for comparing teams. It’s the same algo being used to predict match results can also be used to track team progress relative to their peer group over time. 

This progress tracking is calculated as:

the % of goals scored vs average goals allowed by each opponent (i.e. goal scoring effectiveness % per game) ​
minus 

the % of goals allowed vs average goals scored by each opponent (i.e. goals defending % per game)​
equals

goal differential % per game, which can be charted for each game to show improvement or decline trends over time.​
If there’s a need for/interest in more detail or other questions, just ping over or reply to this post.


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