# Chances of a men's DI NCAA tournament game in So Cal



## espola (Oct 23, 2017)

The NCAA men's DI tournament involves 48 teams selected from the 205 schools playing men's soccer.  Each of the 24 conferences gets an automatic entry, usually the regular season leader, or the winner of a post-season tournament, if they have one.  The remaining slots are filled by a panel of experts who look mainly at RPI, with some minor adjustments down for really bad games (like losing at home to a low-ranked team) or upward for really good games (like winning on the road against a top-ranked team).

The teams selected are then seeded to establish home field advantage, usually fairly close to RPI order.  In the first round the top 16 seeds get a bye, and the next 16 a home game.  Sometimes the seedings are massaged a bit to cut down on first-round travel expenses.

Given all  that, I am looking at Southern California teams, drawing the line at Bakersfield and Santa Barbara.

South to North, by conference --

WCC -- (no tournament)
USD - 8-3-2, tied for the lead in WCC, and RPI of 24 - a guaranteed spot in the tournament unless they falter in the final four games, all against WCC opponents.
LMU - 3-9-2, next to bottom of conference, RPI 163, 4 games remaining in conference - out.

Pac 12 -- (no tournament)
San Diego State - 5-9-0, bottom of Pac 12 and RPI  of 155 - out of it.
UCLA - 6-6-1, 4th in Pac 12, RPI of 29.  They have 5 conference games remaining and could conceivably win it, if the win all their games, Stanford loses all theirs, and all the other games end in ties.  However, with their strong RPI position, they are probably in anyway, and with a home seed, as long as they maintain at least a .500 record.

Big West -- (6 of 8 teams qualify for post-season tournament, the winner of which gets the conference autobid)
UC Riverside - 2-12-1, bottom of Big West South Division, and RPI of 192.  Out of it unless they can pull off a miracle and win the post-season tournament.
UC Irvine - 7-7-3, 3rd in BW South, RPI 119.  Need to win the tournament.
Cal State Fullerton - 8-6-3, 2nd in BW South, RPI of 122.  Need to win the tournament.
Cal State Northridge - 9-6-2, leading BW South, RPI 71.  Need to win the tournament.
UCSB - 6-6-4, 2nd in BW North, RPI 91.  Need to win the tournament.

WAC -- (7 of 11 teams qualify for post-season tournament)
Cal State Bakersfield -5-8-1, 4th in WAC, RPI 166.  Need to win the tournament.

A reasonable possibility would be UCLA at USD in the first round.


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## Upper-V (Oct 25, 2017)

espola said:


> The NCAA men's DI tournament involves 48 teams selected from the 205 schools playing men's soccer.  Each of the 24 conferences gets an automatic entry, usually the regular season leader, or the winner of a post-season tournament, if they have one.  The remaining slots are filled by a panel of experts who look mainly at RPI, with some minor adjustments down for really bad games (like losing at home to a low-ranked team) or upward for really good games (like winning on the road against a top-ranked team).
> 
> The teams selected are then seeded to establish home field advantage, usually fairly close to RPI order.  In the first round the top 16 seeds get a bye, and the next 16 a home game.  Sometimes the seedings are massaged a bit to cut down on first-round travel expenses.
> 
> ...


Great analysis Espola...thank You!! Any thoughts about UC Davis in the Big West?


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## espola (Oct 25, 2017)

Upper-V said:


> Great analysis Espola...thank You!! Any thoughts about UC Davis in the Big West?


Davis has the best conference record at the moment, so if they win the last 2 (Cal Poly away, Sac State home) they will have home field in the tournament.  That would mean a bye and 2 home games.

Northridge has the best RPI at the moment (70), but not enough games left to pull up into the at-large zone, which will probably top out around 40 this year.  In 2012, those two teams were in similar position, which ended in a tournament final at Davis, which Northridge won 1-0 on a freaky 50-yard shot (ball hit the crossbar, bounced down the ground, then bounced the crossbar again before going in).


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## Sheriff Joe (Oct 25, 2017)

Why is the interest level greater on the womens side of college soccer in here.


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## CaliKlines (Oct 25, 2017)

Sheriff Joe said:


> Why is the interest level greater on the womens side of college soccer in here.


Everyone loves a winner.


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## Upper-V (Oct 25, 2017)

espola said:


> Davis has the best conference record at the moment, so if they win the last 2 (Cal Poly away, Sac State home) they will have home field in the tournament.  That would mean a bye and 2 home games.
> 
> Northridge has the best RPI at the moment (70), but not enough games left to pull up into the at-large zone, which will probably top out around 40 this year.  In 2012, those two teams were in similar position, which ended in a tournament final at Davis, which Northridge won 1-0 on a freaky 50-yard shot (ball hit the crossbar, bounced down the ground, then bounced the crossbar again before going in).


Interesting history and info. Thanks!


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## Upper-V (Oct 25, 2017)

Sheriff Joe said:


> Why is the interest level greater on the womens side of college soccer in here.


Good question! It’s definitely evident for sure.


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## espola (Oct 25, 2017)

These are the bonus and penalty assessment situations used by the selection committee, according to a reliable source.

Win Away 1-15 Bonus (Highest point value awarded)
Win Neutral 1-15 Bonus
Win Away 16-30 Bonus
Win Neutral 16-30 Bonus
Draw Away 1-15 Bonus
Draw Neutral 1-15 Bonus
Win Away 31-45 Bonus
Win Neutral 31-45 Bonus
Draw Away 16-30 Bonus
Draw Neutral 16-30 Bonus
Win Away 46-60 Bonus
Win Neutral 46-60 Bonus
Draw Away 31-45 Bonus
Win Away 61-75 Bonus
Draw Neutral 31-45 Bonus
Draw Away 46-60 Bonus (Lowest point value awarded)


No bonus for home results
No bonus for neutral Draw 46 or below
No bonus for away Draw 61 or below
No bonus for neutral win below 61
No bonus for away win below 76

Draw Home 126-140 Penalty (Lowest penalty imposed)
Loss Neutral 126-140 Penalty
Draw Neutral 141-170 Penalty
Draw Home 141-170 Penalty
Loss Away 141-170 Penalty
Loss Home 126-140 Penalty
Loss Neutral 141-170 Penalty
Draw Away 171-200 Penalty
Loss Home 141-170 Penalty
Draw Neutral 171-200 Penalty
Loss Away 171-200 Penalty
Draw Home 171-200 Penalty
Loss Neutral 171-200 Penalty
Loss Home 171-200 Penalty (Greatest penalty imposed)

Penalty for home loss or Draw below 126
Penalty for neutral loss below 126
Penalty for neutral Draw below 141
Penalty for away loss below 141
Penalty for away Draw below 171

http://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/2017-rpi-calculations.2068278/page-3#post-36012744


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## espola (Oct 26, 2017)

" An own goal via a Cal Poly defender with just over six minutes remaining in regulation broke a 1-all deadlock and lifted visiting UC Davis to a, 2-1, win over the host Mustangs, clinching the Big West Conference North Division title for the Aggies on Wednesday night at Alex G. Spanos Stadium."

http://www.ucdavisaggies.com/sports/m-soccer/recaps/102517aaa.html


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## espola (Oct 26, 2017)

Big West -

http://rpiupdatemenssoccer.blogspot.com/2017/08/big-west-conference-standings.html

Sac State 0-0 at UCSB
Irvine 1-2 at Riverside
Fullerton 1-0 at Northridge

Final games this weekend - 
Sac State at Davis
UCSB at Cal Poly
Irvine at Fullerton
Northridge at Riverside


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## espola (Oct 26, 2017)

espola said:


> " An own goal via a Cal Poly defender with just over six minutes remaining in regulation broke a 1-all deadlock and lifted visiting UC Davis to a, 2-1, win over the host Mustangs, clinching the Big West Conference North Division title for the Aggies on Wednesday night at Alex G. Spanos Stadium."
> 
> http://www.ucdavisaggies.com/sports/m-soccer/recaps/102517aaa.html


Video of last goal --



__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10155915624117743


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## Upper-V (Oct 26, 2017)

espola said:


> Video of last goal --
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10155915624117743


Thanks for the video! How’d you get it so quick? It’s not posted on VidSwap yet.


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## espola (Oct 26, 2017)

Upper-V said:


> Thanks for the video! How’d you get it so quick? It’s not posted on VidSwap yet.


UC Davis website.  I think they must have obtained it from Cal Poly.


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## espola (Oct 27, 2017)

Today's updates --

San Diego lost to Pacific 1-3, but their RPI is still good at 27.

Bakersfield beat UMKC 2-1.  They are 4th in WAC right now, and need a win or 2 ties in their final 2 games (#22 Air Force and #118 San Jose State), or help from others, to stay in position for the WAC tournament.


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## espola (Oct 30, 2017)

Big West tournament pairings -- Sac State at Northridge Wednesday, winner goes to UC Davis Friday; Riverside at UCSB Wednesday, winner goes to Fullerton Friday.  Final is Sunday at highest remaining seed (which in all possibilities will be the North Division team this year because of the Conference tie-breaker rules, but that could still mean UCSB).


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## espola (Nov 1, 2017)

Sacramento State 2 at 3  Northridge - Northridge to Davis 2PM Saturday (no lights at Davis)
Riverside 1 at 0 UCSB - Riverside to Fullerton 7PM Saturday

Final will be Saturday Nov 11 at home of higher remaining seed.  Current seed order is Davis, Fullerton, Northridge, Riverside.


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## Upper-V (Nov 2, 2017)

espola said:


> Big West tournament pairings -- Sac State at Northridge Wednesday, winner goes to UC Davis Friday; Riverside at UCSB Wednesday, winner goes to Fullerton Friday.  Final is Sunday at highest remaining seed (which in all possibilities will be the North Division team this year because of the Conference tie-breaker rules, but that could still mean UCSB).


My prediction is UC Davis wins over CSUN in a very hard fought battle. Even though they tied in conference (1-1; 2 OT), UCD registered a team high 22 points this year and have been playing with strong team chemistry in their matches. Riverside and Fullerton is a tough call. Riverside overcame a 0-12 start and has won their last 3 games to beat out UCI (nationally ranked at beginning of season) for the last South spot in the Big West Tourney. Fullerton has been inconsistent all season. In the month of October they have had: L,W,T,L,W,T,W,L. Could go either way but I will go with the underdog, UCR to win.


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## espola (Nov 2, 2017)

Upper-V said:


> My prediction is UC Davis wins over CSUN in a very hard fought battle. Even though they tied in conference (1-1; 2 OT), UCD registered a team high 22 points this year and have been playing with strong team chemistry in their matches. Riverside and Fullerton is a tough call. Riverside overcame a 0-12 start and has won their last 3 games to beat out UCI (nationally ranked at beginning of season) for the last South spot in the Big West Tourney. Fullerton has been inconsistent all season. In the month of October they have had: L,W,T,L,W,T,W,L. Could go either way but I will go with the underdog, UCR to win.


Fullerton has that huge stadium (constructed for their football team right before they dropped football) and George Kuntz, a coach with a big biography (http://www.fullertontitans.com/sports/m-soccer/coaches/George_Kuntz?view=bio and please watch the pronunciation), who suddenly moved from Irvine to Fullerton (so close he didn't even need to buy a new house) a couple of years back.


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## Upper-V (Nov 2, 2017)

espola said:


> Fullerton has that huge stadium (constructed for their football team right before they dropped football) and George Kuntz, a coach with a big biography (http://www.fullertontitans.com/sports/m-soccer/coaches/George_Kuntz?view=bio and please watch the pronunciation), who suddenly moved from Irvine to Fullerton (so close he didn't even need to buy a new house) a couple of years back.


I have great respect for George Kuntz! He did amazing things at UCI and quickly replicated it at CS Fullerton. The article was good, he is a force to be reckoned with, especially in the big games. The stories below are good also. You’ve got two different generations of coaches with similar philosophies. You can’t argue with Kuntz’s track record of success...for sure. 

Great article on George Kuntz:
http://www.bigwest.org/story.asp?STORY_ID=19407

Great article on Tim Capello:
http://www.gohighlanders.com/news/2016/10/12/mens-soccer-bigwest-org-culture-reboot-impacts-highlander-hot-start.aspx?path=msoc


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## espola (Nov 4, 2017)

USD's 1-3 loss at Pacific, 2-2 draw at St. Mary's, and  0-1 loss to San Francisco have knocked them down to 42nd RPI slot, and likely out of the NCAA at-large window.  They have just one game remaining, at Santa Clara.


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## espola (Nov 4, 2017)

Northridge at Davis video feed on BW TV today at 2PM --

http://bigwest.sidearmstreaming.com/watch/?Live=328

and Riverside at Fullerton at 7PM

http://bigwest.sidearmstreaming.com/watch/?Live=329


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## espola (Nov 4, 2017)

espola said:


> Northridge at Davis video feed on BW TV today at 2PM --
> 
> http://bigwest.sidearmstreaming.com/watch/?Live=328
> 
> ...


Davis 2:0 Northridge at halftime.


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## espola (Nov 4, 2017)

espola said:


> Davis 2:0 Northridge at halftime.


Final score Davis 4:2 Northridge.  Davis scored twice in the last minute, down a man.


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## espola (Nov 4, 2017)

espola said:


> Final score Davis 4:2 Northridge.  Davis scored twice in the last minute, down a man.


Fullerton beats Riverside 2-1, also overcoming being a man down at the end.


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## espola (Nov 5, 2017)

espola said:


> Final score Davis 4:2 Northridge.  Davis scored twice in the last minute, down a man.


Video of last 2 goals here --




__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10155945084897743


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## espola (Nov 5, 2017)

Since UCLA lost 2-3 at Cal today, they cannot get to .500 with one game remaining and thus are out of the NCAA tournament this year, after 34 years in a row making the field.


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## espola (Nov 5, 2017)

So Cal men's teams still in the mix --

Bakersfield - if they win the WAC tournament in Las Vegas next weekend, and they will need 3 wins to sweep it
http://rpiupdatemenssoccer.blogspot.com/2017/10/western-athletic-conference-tournament.html

Fullerton - if they win Big West final at Davis next Saturday 
http://rpiupdatemenssoccer.blogspot.com/2017/10/big-west-conference-tournament.html

San Diego - RPI at 40 is just in the at-large window - one game left at Santa Clara 
http://rpiupdatemenssoccer.blogspot.com/search/label/Tournament Projection


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## Upper-V (Nov 6, 2017)

espola said:


> Video of last 2 goals here --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Wild game indeed! Last 2 in 22 seconds.  UC Davis’ first two goals were nice as well. If you freeze the frame on the first CSUN goal, it looks like one of the CSUN players (behind the Davis center back) is off side. The AR is just far enough behind play to not catch it...oh well.


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## Upper-V (Nov 6, 2017)

Upper-V said:


> Wild game indeed! Last 2 in 22 seconds.  UC Davis’ first two goals were nice as well. If you freeze the frame on the first CSUN goal, it looks like one of the CSUN players (behind the Davis center back) is off side. The AR is just far enough behind play to not catch it...oh well.


Here’s the video: http://www.bigwest.org//sports/msoccer/info/champs/


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## espola (Nov 8, 2017)

Bakersfield is out, losing 0-3 to Seattle in the WAC tournament.  The remaining So Cal team in the mix is San Diego, and even if they hang on to an at-large spot (one game remaining at Santa Clara Saturday), they're not getting a home game.

Interesting comment from Sandon Mibut on Bigsoccer.com -- "Also note that this is San Diego coach Seamus McFadden's final game after being at the program as HC since 1981. If USD wins, expect the committee to give them the benefit of the doubt for one of the final at-large slots."


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## espola (Nov 9, 2017)

Since there is no chance now that there will be any home games in the men's tournament in So Cal, let's expand a bit into the west in general.  Using GauchoDan's RPI page and Tournament Projection page as guides, the only western team likely to get a bye in the first round is Stanford (12).  Possible home teams are SMU (18), Air Force (20), Washington(28), California (30), and Portland (31).  Travelers are Pacific (36), San Diego(39), Denver* (55), Davis* (60)/Fullerton* (109),  Seattle*(52)/ UNLV*(87)/San Jose State*(98).

*if conference tournament champion.


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## espola (Nov 11, 2017)

Fullerton is in as Big West Conference representative, drawing 0-0 at Davis and winning the kicking exhibition 4-3.  San Diego's fortunes depend on its game tonight at Santa Clara.


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## espola (Nov 11, 2017)

San Diego loses 0-1, and that ends their season.


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## espola (Nov 13, 2017)

Looks like the closest game will be Fullerton at Pacific.


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## espola (Nov 16, 2017)

Fullerton at Pacific will be televised on WCC TV

http://www.wccsports.com/gamecenter/m-soccer/gc-111617-paci.html


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## espola (Nov 16, 2017)

espola said:


> Fullerton at Pacific will be televised on WCC TV
> 
> http://www.wccsports.com/gamecenter/m-soccer/gc-111617-paci.html


Fullerton's out 1-2.

http://www.ncaa.com/game/soccer-men/d1/2017/11/16/cal-st-fullerton-pacific


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