# Least improved - SD 2007 Boys Teams - So Far... (as of 1/20/20)



## Kante (Jan 21, 2020)

Here's the least improved SD 2007 teams so far this year...

Usually, families and coaches will have some intuitive sense of how things are trending but it's hard to be concrete. The goal of this (long) post is to provide some objective data for evaluating DA team performance/development so far this season.

Will leave it to the clubs, coaches and families to interpret on whether or not the improvements or declines were due to development over time (i.e. good or bad coaching) or other reasons such as adding new players, a key player was injured for a bit etc. While it may not be reasonable or desirable to expect wins, it does seem reasonable to expect progress and improvement over time.

The short version on the methodology for comparing teams is that the same algo being used to predict match results can also be used to track team progress relative to their peer group over time.

*Least Improved #1: Orange County Surf*
For 2019-20 so far, the u13 OC Surf team is the least improved squad in the SD Group.

To be fair, OC Surf started strong w/ a 4-0 over LAGSD, but took a big step down after that match. So measuring from the LAGSD match, OC Surf's decline over time is about -180% overall but measuring from their second match, the decline is a significant, but not as severe, ~-50%. Still not great though and definitely cause for concern.

Overall it looks like OC Surf was doing reasonably well in their first three matches but then got beat 1-8 by Real Salt Lake, and that started their slide in the wrong direction. Any comments or insight into what happened either posted here or dm would be welcome.

Offensively, OC Surf, after scoring four on LAGSD in that first match, OC Surf took a big step down but did then show moderate improvement over time. Defensively, however, it's been a very consistent trend in the wrong direction with OC Surf now almost 100% worse defensively now than they were at the beginning of the season.

Here's OC Surf's Goal Differential % over time chart:



Here's OC Surf's goals scored as % of opponent's average goals allowed over time chart:



Here's OC Surf's goals allowed as % of opponent's average goals scored over time chart:



*Least Improved #2: San Diego Soccer Club*
SDSC started out with a very strong 4-2 win over SD Surf but then went on a slide for the next four matches, bottoming out with a 3-4 loss to Arsenal. 

After that point, SDSC got back on track with fairly consistent and strong improvement since. But, because they haven't yet returned to where they were in that first game, that's enough to make SDSC the second least improved team in San Diego overall so far this year.

Offensively, the overall drop in quality initially looks like SDSC is about -120% worse now than they were at the beginning of the season. But it's more complicated than that and is a story that's told in three parts. 

First, SDSC started very strong with good wins over SD Surf and Albion. 

Second, SDSC then stumbled a bit with a poor offensive performance in a 0-0 tie with LAGSD in mid-September. And after that, SDSC, still declining a bit, bounced along the bottom with not great offense - scoring less than a goal per game and being shut-out three times - for the next four games. 

However, after the 0-3 loss to Real Salt Lake at the beginning of October, SDSC now looks like they're mostly back on track with fairly consistent improvement since, averaging four goals scored per game from that point thru the end of 2019.

Defensively, SDSC is even more of a roller coaster. They started with three strong defensive performances including shutting out LAGSD in mid-September but then had a big defensive hiccup in their 3-4 loss to Arsenal. However, SDSC then showed some improvement over the next two games but started trending in the wrong direction again after the 1-2 loss to SC del Sol.

Here's SDSC's Goal Differential % over time chart:



Here's SDSC's goals scored as % of opponent's average goals allowed over time chart:



Here's SDSC's goals allowed as % of opponent's average goals scored over time chart:



*Least Improved #3: Arsenal*
The #3 least improved team in San Diego is Arsenal. After starting fairly strong with two good September wins in their first three matches - beating Albion 3-1 and beating SDSC 4-3 - Arsenal had a pretty consistent downward trend in October and into the beginning of November, bottoming out with a 0-3 loss to LAGSD. But then, Arsenal seems to be getting back on track with a very consistent improvement trend over their last four games of 2019.

Offensively, Arsenal's two best matches by far were the early wins against Albion and SDSC, and including those matches into the trend line shows a declining offensive trend over time. Excluding those two matches, Arsenal seems to be improving fairly steadily improving but is still well below average offensively. Hopefully, Arsenal will be able to rediscover whatever was clicking in the Albion and SDSC matches in 2020.

Defensively, Arsenal was above average thru the first five matches of the season, until about the end of October. It looks like there then was a big change that happened on the D side (doesn't look like an injury... any comment or insights either to this post or via dm?) that manifested in the early November 0-3 loss to LAGSD.

Arsenal has been recovering defensively since that match but only just got back to their previous defensive level, with their mid December 2-1 win against OC Surf.

Here's Arsenal's Goal Differential % over time chart:

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Here's Arsenal's goals scored as % of opponent's average goals allowed over time chart:

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Here's Arsenal's goals allowed as % of opponent's average goals scored over time chart:
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## watfly (Jan 21, 2020)

Thanks, Kante.  Obviously, wins/losses and GF/GA don't tell the whole story  in regards to improvement (which I suspect you agree).  There are so many variables that impact these results but its interesting nonetheless.

Just some impressions based upon what limited I've seen to date.  In our game against them, I felt that OC Surf was trying to play the "right way" (playing out of the back, short passing etc) which doesn't necessarily lead to wins over the short term.  They have some players with good motors, hopefully they can put together better results the 2nd half of the season.

I don't think SDSC and Arsenal are necessarily less improved, I just think they're inconsistent.  SDSC has some of the best individual players, but their offense runs through a single player.  I believe that some teams changed their tactics to defend SDSC's one player improving their odds to win whereas other teams stuck with their standard tactics and style of play which may have exposed them to this player.  While Arsenal may have not shown improvement over the course of the 1st half of the season, they've shown significant improvement over last year.


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## Kante (Jan 21, 2020)

watfly said:


> Thanks, Kante.  Obviously, wins/losses and GF/GA don't tell the whole story  in regards to improvement (which I suspect you agree).  There are so many variables that impact these results but its interesting nonetheless.
> 
> Just some impressions based upon what limited I've seen to date.  In our game against them, I felt that OC Surf was trying to play the "right way" (playing out of the back, short passing etc) which doesn't necessarily lead to wins over the short term.  They have some players with good motors, hopefully they can put together better results the 2nd half of the season.
> 
> I don't think SDSC and Arsenal are necessarily less improved, I just think they're inconsistent.  SDSC has some of the best individual players, but their offense runs through a single player.  I believe that some teams changed their tactics to defend SDSC's one player improving their odds to win whereas other teams stuck with their standard tactics and style of play which may have exposed them to this player.  While Arsenal may have not shown improvement over the course of the 1st half of the season, they've shown significant improvement over last year.


Thanks. The feedback/insight is appreciated.


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