# Good News Thread



## kickingandscreaming (Nov 23, 2020)

Rt is less than 1.0 in several states that have been getting hammered with cased the past few weeks. That's definitely good news. Those same states also appear to be peaking with cases in for a few, have started down a bit (check out the NY Times for those graphs - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases.html#cases)


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

This is huge news.  The CDC has announced they are starting with nursing home patients FIRST, not health care workers.  If it holds, it means a few things: a) the data must show and they are sufficiently convinced that the vaccine does have eficacy in older people, b) since the vaccine, though, doesn't prevent 100% getting COVID, but does lessen symptoms, they are doubling down on the "emergency/masks forever" strategy....seeking to lessen the crisis but not necessarily make it end quickly, c) it delays the mandatory vaccine debate for a bit (possibly not until the next administration), and d) no mention of teachers....remote school for the entire year increasingly likely, though I'm not ready to call that one yet....I still think teachers should come before any non-aged health care workers if that's what it takes to reopen the schools.









						Redfield projects COVID-19 vaccine to be rolled out by 'end of the second week in December'
					

A coronavirus vaccine will begin to become available in the United States "probably by the end of the second week in December," Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield told Fox News Tuesday.




					www.foxnews.com


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This is huge news.  The CDC has announced they are starting with nursing home patients FIRST, not health care workers.  If it holds, it means a few things: a) the data must show and they are sufficiently convinced that the vaccine does have eficacy in older people, b) since the vaccine, though, doesn't prevent 100% getting COVID, but does lessen symptoms, they are doubling down on the "emergency/masks forever" strategy....seeking to lessen the crisis but not necessarily make it end quickly, c) it delays the mandatory vaccine debate for a bit (possibly not until the next administration), and d) no mention of teachers....remote school for the entire year increasingly likely, though I'm not ready to call that one yet....I still think teachers should come before any non-aged health care workers if that's what it takes to reopen the schools.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


In some ways, nursing homes are “low hanging fruit” assuming the vaccine is reasonably effective for seniors. You have a bunch of high risk folks, all in one spot, and many incapable of saying “No, thanks.” Sounds like they will vaccinate the workers at the homes simultaneously. Hard to argue with this approach if the vaccine offers them protection - especially given the high level of resistance many have to getting the vaccine.


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> In some ways, nursing homes are “low hanging fruit” assuming the vaccine is reasonably effective for seniors. You have a bunch of high risk folks, all in one spot, and many incapable of saying “No, thanks.” Sounds like they will vaccinate the workers at the homes simultaneously. Hard to argue with this approach if the vaccine offers them protection - especially given the high level of resistance many have to getting the vaccine.


If it's true and the side effects are less for older people, it's also a way to lessen the "vaccine bad" stories.  But these aren't people that are out and around in the community and if they can still get COVID even with the vaccine it won't lessen the case count substantially at first (whereas vaccinating college kids and health care workers would).  But I do agree with your analysis of the incentives involved.


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> If it's true and the side effects are less for older people, it's also a way to lessen the "vaccine bad" stories.  But these aren't people that are out and around in the community and if they can still get COVID even with the vaccine it won't lessen the case count substantially at first (whereas vaccinating college kids and health care workers would).  But I do agree with your analysis of the incentives involved.


I was really hoping we could vaccinate the college kids before they went home for the holidays. However, even if the vaccine was ready, the two doses and the potential of unpleasant side effects might make the end of the semester exams more challenging. There are ways around it such as, get a vaccine and your grade stats the same as before your final.

I have to wonder if college kids won’t fall far down the priority list due to optics. College students tend to fall more into the wealthier side of our society. Why favor them over the 19 year old not going to college? I only hope there is the general mindset in the public that this is even a real possibility - people are upset because they didn’t get access to the vaccine sooner. I fear the issue is that many want nothing to do with the vaccine. Every survey I have seen indicates that appears more prevalent in the economically disadvantaged side of society.


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This is huge news.  The CDC has announced they are starting with nursing home patients FIRST, not health care workers.  If it holds, it means a few things: a) the data must show and they are sufficiently convinced that the vaccine does have eficacy in older people, b) since the vaccine, though, doesn't prevent 100% getting COVID, but does lessen symptoms, they are doubling down on the "emergency/masks forever" strategy....seeking to lessen the crisis but not necessarily make it end quickly, c) it delays the mandatory vaccine debate for a bit (possibly not until the next administration), and d) no mention of teachers....remote school for the entire year increasingly likely, though I'm not ready to call that one yet....I still think teachers should come before any non-aged health care workers if that's what it takes to reopen the schools.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


interesting contradictory info being released in Tennessee today. They say health care workers are first so someone’s not communicating very well with each other

also Tennessee’s governor said no vaccine requirement for schools. Sets up a battle with the Biden admin.


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> interesting contradictory info being released in Tennessee today. They say health care workers are first so someone’s not communicating very well with each other
> 
> also Tennessee’s governor said no vaccine requirement for schools. Sets up a battle with the Biden admin.


It will be very interesting how this all plays out with the vaccine.


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## Hüsker Dü (Nov 25, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It will be very interesting how this all plays out with the vaccine.


There will be those who strictly use it for political purposes like they have since the beginning. The power of American ingenuity and the ability to pull together has been discarded in favor of political divide. Sad, so many have died, so many have been devastated financially, school children have been deprived, athletics, etc. all quite needlessly.


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## Desert Hound (Nov 25, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Rt is less than 1.0 in several states that have been getting hammered with cased the past few weeks. That's definitely good news. Those same states also appear to be peaking with cases in for a few, have started down a bit (check out the NY Times for those graphs - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases.html#cases)
> 
> View attachment 9538


Here is the direct link.

If you watch it over a month or so you see states constantly move up and down the scale.









						Rt COVID-19
					

Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.



					rt.live


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## Grace T. (Nov 25, 2020)

US Supreme court 5-4 strikes down Cuomo size restrictions on worship.  I'd expect the precedent will also serve to strike down restrictions in California.  Likely also adds fuel to the fire for the parochial schools challenges in California to county restrictions.


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## Grace T. (Nov 25, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> US Supreme court 5-4 strikes down Cuomo size restrictions on worship.  I'd expect the precedent will also serve to strike down restrictions in California.  Likely also adds fuel to the fire for the parochial schools challenges in California to county restrictions.


Roberts dissented basically saying because the restrictions lifted the matter is moot and the Supreme Court should not act.  Gorsuch tears into him for that saying to get to the Supreme Court and have the principle adjudicated, the house of worship would have to have the restriction placed on them and remain in the applicable tier until the Supreme Court heard their case, even though they were under threat of a potential future closure.  Gorsuch basically alleges Roberts is a situationalist, using the technically to avoid overturning an executive action, even though in principle Roberts signals he agrees with the majority.

The thrust of the majority opinions is that the reason the restriction is not acceptable is because it isn't content neutral.  Cuomo limited houses of worship to 10 people but didn't limit tattoo parlors, alcohol dealers, grocers, and law offices, deeming those essential.  So the state could restrict all indoor singing or require masks in all indoor public places, but cannot single out houses of worship for special treatment.  Similarly, the state can't restrict outdoor services or put restrictions on those, if it doesn't do so on things like protests or political celebrations.  

The Gorsuch opinion in particularly sizzles.  He's clearly fed up with the Chief's politicking around sensitive issues.


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## Grace T. (Nov 25, 2020)

What's really interesting about the Gorsuch opinion too is he's discusing the Jacobson small pox case which the Chief used as his rationale for allowing the restrictions early in the pandemic.  On the face of it, Gorsuch is rebutting the chief's rationale.  But the long game is he's laying out the parameters on which a vaccine mandate may or may not survive Supreme Court review.


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 26, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> What's really interesting about the Gorsuch opinion too is he's discusing the Jacobson small pox case which the Chief used as his rationale for allowing the restrictions early in the pandemic.  On the face of it, Gorsuch is rebutting the chief's rationale.  But the long game is he's laying out the parameters on which a vaccine mandate may or may not survive Supreme Court review.


What is your impression on whether a vaccine mandate would be upheld by the Supreme Court?


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## Grace T. (Nov 26, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> What is your impression on whether a vaccine mandate would be upheld by the Supreme Court?


depends on how it’s structured.  Gorsuch is signaling they’ll need a wide religious exemption to pass. Likely at least acb Thomas and Alito agree.  He’s also signaling he’d might have an issue in general but unclear whose with him on that

there Will be 3 vaccine fights, from most dangerous to least. One is Biden v red states like Tennessee that have come out and said no mandate. Two is states v individuals like when they try and force the teachers to get vaccinated (which will happen and might make for some interesting blue on blue conflict). Three is when employers try to force it on workers and airlines on employees.


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## crush (Nov 26, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> What's really interesting about the Gorsuch opinion too is he's discusing the Jacobson small pox case which the Chief used as his rationale for allowing the restrictions early in the pandemic.  On the face of it, Gorsuch is rebutting the chief's rationale.  But the long game is he's laying out the parameters on which a vaccine mandate may or may not survive Supreme Court review.


ACB saved the day for those who want to worship in peace Grace?  She's the real deal  Happy Thanksgiving Grace. I'm so thankful for all the strong woman in my life. We have some really incredible brave woman in this country and I'm so grateful to my wife and dd as well. My adopted mommy and my biological mommy are true heroes to me and always will be. I would not be here without them and today i am must grateful. My adopted mom loved Thanksgiving and always told us it was her favorite holiday. She died on this day in 2010 and would be 100 today. Thanks for adopting me


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## crush (Nov 26, 2020)

@Grace T.  Do you have a favorite Palm you want share with all of us today?  I love me some Palmist on Thanksgiving Day.  I'm reading one of my Palms today before our family dinner.  We will all stay as a single family unit today and then do a virtual "We miss you grandma and grandpa."  Tomorrow is another day and we will celebrate the day after, Thanks


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 26, 2020)

This is why I'm optimistic for a much more "normal" life by spring, 2021 due to a significant decrease in "deaths from COVID".

1) Immunity to COVID appears persistent and a lot of people already had (20%?) and many more will catch it in the next few months.
2) With a virus such as COVID where much of the transmission is driven by "super spreading" events, those that get it early tend to have a higher "individual R0" and that drives down R0 for the remaining population --> The virus doesn't spread as easily not only due to fewer people being susceptible, those that are susceptible don't spread it as easily as those who caught it already.
3) The priority is to roll out the vaccine to the older folks first. This makes sense to me as the vaccine is stated to be effective for the older generation and those groups are driving the high death rate. <check my math with the link below>
Age group proportion of COVID deaths:
-- 75+, it's 58%
-- 65+, it's 79%
-- 55+, it's 91%
4) Treatments will continue to get better.
5) Seasonality






						COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
					

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities.  Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.




					www.cdc.gov
				




Case counts will look grim for a while, but there are already good signs in the heartland as some of the states appeared to have peaked.


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## crush (Nov 26, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This is why I'm optimistic for a much more "normal" life by spring, 2021 due to a significant decrease in "deaths from COVID".
> 
> 1) Immunity to COVID appears persistent and a lot of people already had (20%?) and many more will catch it in the next few months.
> 2) With a virus such as COVID where much of the transmission is driven by "super spreading" events, those that get it early tend to have a higher "individual R0" and that drives down R0 for the remaining population --> The virus doesn't spread as easily not only due to fewer people being susceptible, those that are susceptible don't spread it as easily as those who caught it already.
> ...


I drove by the ER yesterday for a peak and it was a ghost twon.  All these "rise" in cases has everything to do with folks trying to leave the state and want to make sure their not infected with the bat virus.  Grace is spot on.  Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving and great job on all the research.


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## crush (Nov 26, 2020)

*TSA on Wednesday screened the highest number of travelers in one day since the pandemic began*

Be safe my fellow Americans and visitors to our awesome country


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## Grace T. (Nov 26, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This is why I'm optimistic for a much more "normal" life by spring, 2021 due to a significant decrease in "deaths from COVID".
> 
> 1) Immunity to COVID appears persistent and a lot of people already had (20%?) and many more will catch it in the next few months.
> 2) With a virus such as COVID where much of the transmission is driven by "super spreading" events, those that get it early tend to have a higher "individual R0" and that drives down R0 for the remaining population --> The virus doesn't spread as easily not only due to fewer people being susceptible, those that are susceptible don't spread it as easily as those who caught it already.
> ...


it depends if falling death rates allows us realists to get the upper hand in the discussions.  Remember case numbers are all important to some experts like Fauci, the California health authorities or our genius in Los Angeles.   The Biden covid panel leans this way too. The scenario that’s being set up is due to vaccine and treatments death rate falls but there are still stories of 30 somethings landing in the hospital and a 40 something dying here and there.  Will we be able to climb down from the hysteria weve built up, in the background of an election controversy that’s not going away, a vaccine fight, and a red/blue federalist control controversy?  I don’t know.  If Trump had won I’d have said sure you are right.  The problem is we don’t know how much a true believer Biden (or more appropriately Dr Jill Biden) is in all this and how much of it was just a political tool to beat Trump on the head with.  The fact Biden is a pragmatist gives me optimism.  His panel pick makes me skeptical.


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 26, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> it depends if falling death rates allows us realists to get the upper hand in the discussions.  Remember case numbers are all important to some experts like Fauci, the California health authorities or our genius in Los Angeles.   The Biden covid panel leans this way too. The scenario that’s being set up is due to vaccine and treatments death rate falls but there are still stories of 30 somethings landing in the hospital and a 40 something dying here and there.  Will we be able to climb down from the hysteria weve built up, in the background of an election controversy that’s not going away, a vaccine fight, and a red/blue federalist control controversy?  I don’t know.  If Trump had won I’d have said sure you are right.  The problem is we don’t know how much a true believer Biden (or more appropriately Dr Jill Biden) is in all this and how much of it was just a political tool to beat Trump on the head with.  The fact Biden is a pragmatist gives me optimism.  His panel pick makes me skeptical.


Here's my theory. The US has little appetite for draconian methods of enforcing compliance, and Americans, in general, have little tolerance for being told what to do. I'd say much more than most countries, we feel that they can be the judge of what behavior and actions are acceptable. We are in the midst of a surge bigger than our initial surge, but we don't have nearly the restrictions in California. My daughter and I, alone on a soccer field, were being told by the police that we had to leave (March or April). Now, there are scrimmages galore on the same field - no enforcement of any type of restrictions other than the threat of pulling permits for organized soccer for getting too close to each other. The death rate is down, and people are seeing more and more the consequences on the economy and on mental health. These consequences on the economy and mental health will only grow this winter. I'd say the US and state governments have one more shot at some type of significant shut down this winter. Even that won't come close to the initial shut down. After that, people will be done. Many already are. By February, more people will be looking for any sign to move on. We have already seen this happen on this board. The pressure on politicians, elected and otherwise, will grow. They'll simply disband whatever task force they created and claim victory. Politicians have a short memory when it serves them well.


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## Grace T. (Nov 26, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Here's my theory. The US has little appetite for draconian methods of enforcing compliance, and Americans, in general, have little tolerance for being told what to do. I'd say much more than most countries, we feel that they can be the judge of what behavior and actions are acceptable. We are in the midst of a surge bigger than our initial surge, but we don't have nearly the restrictions in California. My daughter and I, alone on a soccer field, were being told by the police that we had to leave (March or April). Now, there are scrimmages galore on the same field - no enforcement of any type of restrictions other than the threat of pulling permits for organized soccer for getting too close to each other. The death rate is down, and people are seeing more and more the consequences on the economy and on mental health. These consequences on the economy and mental health will only grow this winter. I'd say the US and state governments have one more shot at some type of significant shut down this winter. Even that won't come close to the initial shut down. After that, people will be done. Many already are. By February, more people will be looking for any sign to move on. We have already seen this happen on this board. The pressure on politicians, elected and otherwise, will grow. They'll simply disband whatever task force they created and claim victory. Politicians have a short memory when it serves them well.


thats why the fact both Biden and newsom are pragmatists are helpful. But fauci and some of the panel are true believers as are their health experts


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## notintheface (Nov 27, 2020)

There doesn't need to be a federal vaccine mandate. All it takes is CalSouth requiring vaccination as part of their normal process, and all of the parents on this board will be pushing granny out of the way to get their dd two shots for each arm.


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## crush (Nov 27, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Here's my theory. The US has little appetite for draconian methods of enforcing compliance, and Americans, in general, have little tolerance for being told what to do. I'd say much more than most countries, we feel that they can be the judge of what behavior and actions are acceptable. We are in the midst of a surge bigger than our initial surge, but we don't have nearly the restrictions in California. My daughter and I, alone on a soccer field, were being told by the police that we had to leave (March or April). Now, there are scrimmages galore on the same field - no enforcement of any type of restrictions other than the threat of pulling permits for organized soccer for getting too close to each other. The death rate is down, and people are seeing more and more the consequences on the economy and on mental health. These consequences on the economy and mental health will only grow this winter. I'd say the US and state governments have one more shot at some type of significant shut down this winter. Even that won't come close to the initial shut down. After that, people will be done. Many already are. By February, more people will be looking for any sign to move on. We have already seen this happen on this board. The pressure on politicians, elected and otherwise, will grow. They'll simply disband whatever task force they created and claim victory. Politicians have a short memory when it serves them well.


All true, but lets also add more and more folks are out of work and many will lose their jobs this winter.  It's really bad and I mean really bad.  By Winter, more and more people will also be looking for food.  Let's look to help out those in need.  If you can help, then you will be rewarded.  Selfishness and evil Corps will be destroyed.  Cheaters will have a very hard time, mark my words


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 27, 2020)

crush said:


> All true, but lets also add more and more folks are out of work and many will lose their jobs this winter.  It's really bad and I mean really bad.  By Winter, more and more people will also be looking for food.


Agreed. I was rolling these issues up into the "consequences on the economy"


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## crush (Nov 27, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Agreed. I was rolling these issues up into the "consequences on the economy"


I just got off the phone with a great pal who is very wealthy.  He believes "sharing" is going to take on a whole new meaning in the future.


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## Grace T. (Nov 27, 2020)

The cdc model has the ifr now at about .26%. 28% of country infected.


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## Bruddah IZ (Nov 27, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The cdc model has the ifr now at about .26%. 28% of country infected.


Isn't there an age breakdown as well?


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 27, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The cdc model has the ifr now at about .26%. 28% of country infected.


Damn, 28%? Given the current surge, I’m guessing we’ll be well over 1/3 of the country before the vaccine gets out to the masses. That’s a big deal in terms of reaching herd immunity.

Also, 0.26% is good news. I’d be curious to know what ifr was for the older age groups the last few months vs. March and April.


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## Dargle (Nov 27, 2020)

LA County released new guidelines

http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubdetail.cfm?unit=media&ou=ph&prog=media&prid=2830


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## Kicker4Life (Nov 27, 2020)

Dargle said:


> LA County released new guidelines
> 
> http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubdetail.cfm?unit=media&ou=ph&prog=media&prid=2830


Odd that they show Cases and Deaths by Ethnicity but only Cases by Age Group and NOT Deaths by Age Group?!?!


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## Grace T. (Nov 27, 2020)

Dargle said:


> LA County released new guidelines
> 
> http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubdetail.cfm?unit=media&ou=ph&prog=media&prid=2830


note there’s no sports exception.  Either for youth sports practices or pro sports or pt.Those would appear illegal in la county

there’s also no air con, heating, air, internet repair exception so get those service calls in ASAP

guess they didn’t have the guts to ban gatherings before thanksgiving but you’ll likely have to cancel any la county holiday plans


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## Dargle (Nov 27, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> note there’s no sports exception.  Either for youth sports practices or pro sports or pt.Those would appear illegal in la county


Day camps are still permitted, however, which is how most LA clubs started practicing again back in June.  They also allow exercise classes outdoors at 50% capacity, whatever that means.  It will likely depend upon how the field operators interpret the order.


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## Grace T. (Nov 28, 2020)

looks like the intent really is in la county to ban  even pro sports.  Luckily/unluckily lafc already done.  Santa Clara county just followed suit and colleges up there already rescheduling games.


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## Dargle (Nov 28, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> looks like the intent really is in la county to ban  even pro sports.  Luckily/unluckily lafc already done.  Santa Clara county just followed suit and colleges up there already rescheduling games.


Those involve games with no distancing, so pro/college sports contests could be out while distanced youth sports practicing is ok.


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## Kicker4Life (Nov 28, 2020)

Dargle said:


> Those involve games with no distancing, so pro/college sports contests could be out while distanced youth sports practicing is ok.


So you’re saying they will not allow the Rams/Chargers to play home games during this new lockdown?


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## Dargle (Nov 28, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> So you’re saying they will not allow the Rams/Chargers to play home games during this new lockdown?


No idea. We’re just speculating because the new order is unclear.  I was pointing out the difference between games and socially distanced practices.


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## Dargle (Nov 28, 2020)

Dargle said:


> No idea. We’re just speculating because the new order is unclear.  I was pointing out the difference between games and socially distanced practices.


If Santa Clara county is any indication, the Rams and Chargers may indeed be unable to play in LA


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1332800480620245000


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## whatithink (Nov 29, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Roberts dissented basically saying because the restrictions lifted the matter is moot and the Supreme Court should not act.  Gorsuch tears into him for that saying to get to the Supreme Court and have the principle adjudicated, the house of worship would have to have the restriction placed on them and remain in the applicable tier until the Supreme Court heard their case, even though they were under threat of a potential future closure.  Gorsuch basically alleges Roberts is a situationalist, using the technically to avoid overturning an executive action, even though in principle Roberts signals he agrees with the majority.
> 
> The thrust of the majority opinions is that the reason the restriction is not acceptable is because it isn't content neutral.  Cuomo limited houses of worship to 10 people but didn't limit tattoo parlors, alcohol dealers, grocers, and law offices, deeming those essential.  So the state could restrict all indoor singing or require masks in all indoor public places, but cannot single out houses of worship for special treatment.  Similarly, the state can't restrict outdoor services or put restrictions on those, if it doesn't do so on things like protests or political celebrations.
> 
> The Gorsuch opinion in particularly sizzles.  He's clearly fed up with the Chief's politicking around sensitive issues.


The examples you give are illogical. None of them compare to hundreds of people congregating in an indoor space and then talking and singing out loud for an hour or more. From a medical perspective, that is an extreme high risk gathering. A fairer comparison would be indoor concerts or the like, which were not permitted. Comparing chalk & cheese makes neither the other.

If someone wants to go to church or their respective place of worship and expose themselves thus, then whatever. It does not make them any more devote than the person who decides to care (more some would say) for their fellow man, and not go to their place of worship, despite it being equally important to them.

For me, its an extremely stupid, high risk and dangerous thing to do. It endangers both yourself and those that you then come in contact with.


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 29, 2020)

This is moving in the right direction. It will be telling if it stays that way the next two weeks indicating that Thanksgiving didn't push us in the wrong direction. Florida is one I'll be watching closely. They have already had a lot of cases and they don't have any restrictions as far as I can tell. They also had a lot of reported tourism over Thanksgiving. As expected, OR and WA are fighting to keep their relatively low infection rate. NM appears to be improving after a big surge. HI is pretty much the only remaining state that hasn't had a big spike at some point.


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## Grace T. (Nov 29, 2020)

whatithink said:


> The examples you give are illogical. None of them compare to hundreds of people congregating in an indoor space and then talking and singing out loud for an hour or more. From a medical perspective, that is an extreme high risk gathering. A fairer comparison would be indoor concerts or the like, which were not permitted. Comparing chalk & cheese makes neither the other.
> 
> If someone wants to go to church or their respective place of worship and expose themselves thus, then whatever. It does not make them any more devote than the person who decides to care (more some would say) for their fellow man, and not go to their place of worship, despite it being equally important to them.
> 
> For me, its an extremely stupid, high risk and dangerous thing to do. It endangers both yourself and those that you then come in contact with.


you miss the entire point of the first amendment. It’s up to each person to make that decision because government can’t be impartial in making that decision. Otherwise you get situations like in the uk where in the 1st lockdown blm protests were ok and police took a knee-but in the 2nd anti lockdown protests are cracked down on

but in any case the decision didn’t say no restrictions. The government for example could ban indoor singing so long as it banned all indoor singing and didn’t single out churches. The government could do %restrictions so long as it did so for all indoor businesses.  The government can’t label churches non essential but say law offices and liquor stores are essential but it could restrict the churches if it narrowed the scope of essential businesses very narrowly and shut restaurants for example.  And even if it does that the government can’t stop outdoor worship so long as it allows other 1st amendment activity outside whether Biden victory celebrations, trump rallies, blm protests or anti lockdown protests.

btw folks I warned a few weeks ago if Biden were somehow to get to a national lockdown (which for a variety of reasons is unlikely) there would be violence.  You only need to see what happened this weekend in the Uk (which is much more compliant than we are) to see it.


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## Hüsker Dü (Nov 30, 2020)

What did Trump shoot today?


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## whatithink (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> you miss the entire point of the first amendment. It’s up to each person to make that decision because government can’t be impartial in making that decision. Otherwise you get situations like in the uk where in the 1st lockdown blm protests were ok and police took a knee-but in the 2nd anti lockdown protests are cracked down on
> 
> but in any case the decision didn’t say no restrictions. The government for example could ban indoor singing so long as it banned all indoor singing and didn’t single out churches. The government could do %restrictions so long as it did so for all indoor businesses.  The government can’t label churches non essential but say law offices and liquor stores are essential but it could restrict the churches if it narrowed the scope of essential businesses very narrowly and shut restaurants for example.  And even if it does that the government can’t stop outdoor worship so long as it allows other 1st amendment activity outside whether Biden victory celebrations, trump rallies, blm protests or anti lockdown protests.
> 
> btw folks I warned a few weeks ago if Biden were somehow to get to a national lockdown (which for a variety of reasons is unlikely) there would be violence.  You only need to see what happened this weekend in the Uk (which is much more compliant than we are) to see it.


No, I don't miss the point of the first amendment. Nobody's right to worship (or not) was impinged. Large gatherings were banned which included places of worship. 

Biden will leave it up to the states. He has said that and has stated in plain language that a toddler would understand that he will not impose a national lockdown.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Nov 30, 2020)

whatithink said:


> The examples you give are illogical. None of them compare to hundreds of people congregating in an indoor space and then talking and singing out loud for an hour or more. From a medical perspective, that is an extreme high risk gathering. A fairer comparison would be indoor concerts or the like, which were not permitted. Comparing chalk & cheese makes neither the other.
> 
> If someone wants to go to church or their respective place of worship and expose themselves thus, then whatever. It does not make them any more devote than the person who decides to care (more some would say) for their fellow man, and not go to their place of worship, despite it being equally important to them.
> 
> For me, its an extremely stupid, high risk and dangerous thing to do. It endangers both yourself and those that you then come in contact with.


Nonsense


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

whatithink said:


> No, I don't miss the point of the first amendment. Nobody's right to worship (or not) was impinged. Large gatherings were banned which included places of worship.
> 
> Biden will leave it up to the states. He has said that and has stated in plain language that a toddler would understand that he will not impose a national lockdown.


Errr.  You clearly were asleep in may during the large blm protests that were allowed despite outdoor services, funerals, weddings and even drive in services being shut down

And members of Biden’s task force have been calling for a national lockdown. That doesn’t mean Biden will do it. But there are elements in his circle that want him to

If you are going to engage in a denial about the reality around you there’s no point in having an honest discussion with you.  “Yay team blue”


----------



## whatithink (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Errr.  You clearly were asleep in may during the large blm protests that were allowed despite outdoor services, funerals, weddings and even drive in services being shut down
> 
> And members of Biden’s task force have been calling for a national lockdown. That doesn’t mean Biden will do it. But there are elements in his circle that want him to
> 
> If you are going to engage in a denial about the reality around you there’s no point in having an honest discussion with you.  “Yay team blue”


No, I wasn't asleep. Those were stupid, just like the mass rally's in MI or the Trump rally's. 

I'm not in denial, you are in deflection mode; "elements of his circle" - you can do better. He has been unambiguous in stating he will not impose a national lockdown.

"team blue"! Do you only have an "honest discussion" with people who agree with you?


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

whatithink said:


> No, I wasn't asleep. Those were stupid, just like the mass rally's in MI or the Trump rally's.
> 
> I'm not in denial, you are in deflection mode; "elements of his circle" - you can do better. He has been unambiguous in stating he will not impose a national lockdown.
> 
> "team blue"! Do you only have an "honest discussion" with people who agree with you?


well at least you are consistent then. It’s an open legal question about whether a government in a pandemic could ban protests/trump rallies/Biden victory celebrations/lockdown protests. The government cannot ban or restrict outdoor religious services, however (including arguably religious weddings and funerals) unless it takes similar content neutral restrictions against the other activities. The current scotus decision doesn’t say no restrictions...it just says religion can’t be treated worse. 

as I’ve said before I think biden is a realist so a national lockdown or even a mask mandate isn’t likely.  But it does strike me as odd that he has reigned in his covid task force from talking about it if it’s really truly off the table.  Other political leaders both left and right would have read their people the riot act and told them not to do press inconsistent with the admin message. Doesn’t speak well for the competency of the incoming admin (any more than it does the prior one which was notoriously bad with this sort of stuff...we were promised better and so far, if you are right, it’s not off to a rip roaring start)


----------



## whatithink (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> well at least you are consistent then. It’s an open legal question about whether a government in a pandemic could ban protests/trump rallies/Biden victory celebrations/lockdown protests. The government cannot ban or restrict outdoor religious services, however (including arguably religious weddings and funerals) unless it takes similar content neutral restrictions against the other activities. The current scotus decision doesn’t say no restrictions...it just says religion can’t be treated worse.
> 
> as I’ve said before I think biden is a realist so a national lockdown or even a mask mandate isn’t likely.  But it does strike me as odd that he has reigned in his covid task force from talking about it if it’s really truly off the table.  Other political leaders both left and right would have read their people the riot act and told them not to do press inconsistent with the admin message. Doesn’t speak well for the competency of the incoming admin (any more than it does the prior one which was notoriously bad with this sort of stuff...we were promised better and so far, if you are right, it’s not off to a rip roaring start)


OK, my view on his statement that he will not impose a national lockdown is that he knows, realistically, that he has zero chance of doing it and it will just end up in court. Also, this is a huge country, so realistically, again, there's no point when the states are all over the map (sic) on infection rates etc.

I do think his admin will be more vocal and "in your face" about preventative measures.

I'd prefer not to prejudge his administration. It's in everyone's interest for it to succeed at least on vaccine distribution and economic recovery.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Nov 30, 2020)

whatithink said:


> Biden will leave it up to the states. He has said that and has stated in plain language that a toddler would understand that he will not impose a national lockdown.


By January 20th (about 8 weeks from now) this wave will be well into its downside, and if you believe the CDC, 28% in the US already had COVID as of last week. It will likely be well over 1/3 by Christmas. Front line workers, those identified as most likely to catch and spread the disease, are to start being vaccinated by the middle of December, and by inauguration day, they may well be on to whatever group comes next. Moderna just had some great news on its vaccine as well. I'd guess that in many places, the conversation will be more likely be about how quickly we open up rather than how to implement another lockdown.


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

whatithink said:


> I do think his admin will be more vocal and "in your face" about preventative measures.
> 
> I'd prefer not to prejudge his administration. It's in everyone's interest for it to succeed at least on vaccine distribution and economic recovery.


I don’t think that will go well for him. We are dipping into the last of the good will even in blue states (given, rightly or wrongly, the allegations of fraud and how the election went down the red states are already there). Can’t tell you how many conversations I had with people this weekend about looking forward to things being different in the new year (because of the vaccine, schools/sports planning being out to new year, the new Biden admin/trump out, or just the calendar). Lots of people being set up for disappointment and this would pile on it.

I respect your point of view on not prejudging the admin so long as you were consistent with whichever team is in place. I prejudged the last one...like the last one I see some disturbing trends.


----------



## BigRed (Nov 30, 2020)

whatithink said:


> OK, my view on his statement that he will not impose a national lockdown is that he knows, realistically, that he has zero chance of doing it and it will just end up in court. Also, this is a huge country, so realistically, again, there's no point when the states are all over the map (sic) on infection rates etc.
> 
> I do think his admin will be more vocal and "in your face" about preventative measures.
> 
> I'd prefer not to prejudge his administration. It's in everyone's interest for it to succeed at least on vaccine distribution and economic recovery.


New York has said they'd sue if the federal government imposed a quarantine or lockdown:









						New York Gov. Cuomo says Trump has no authority to impose quarantine: 'It would be illegal'
					

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday he does not believe President Donald Trump has the authority to impose a quarantine on New York, New Jersey and parts of Connecticut to stop the spread of the coronavirus.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> By January 20th (about 8 weeks from now) this wave will be well into its downside, and if you believe the CDC, 28% in the US already had COVID as of last week. It will likely be well over 1/3 by Christmas. Front line workers, those identified as most likely to catch and spread the disease, are to start being vaccinated by the middle of December, and by inauguration day, they may well be on to whatever group comes next. Moderna just had some great news on its vaccine as well. I'd guess that in many places, the conversation will be more likely be about how quickly we open up rather than how to implement another lockdown.


california and some of the other states may lag in part because our interventions have preserved some of the brush keeping us vulnerable.  See New York for example on that effect.  In addition its looking like coastal california just has the short end of the seasonality straw.  I agree for the central and southern states second wave should be on downslope by January. Coastal states and the health expert establishment will resist That thinking.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> california and some of the other states may lag in part because our interventions have preserved some of the brush keeping us vulnerable.  See New York for example on that effect.  In addition its looking like coastal california just has the short end of the seasonality straw.  I agree for the central and southern states second wave should be on downslope by January. Coastal states and the health expert establishment will resist That thinking.


Ha! Yes, in my "many places" I am not optimistic about CA being there and Santa Clara County will likely continue to be the among most cautious in CA.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Nov 30, 2020)

BigRed said:


> New York has said they'd sue if the federal government imposed a quarantine or lockdown:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


He said that about the Trump admin.....but what would he do if Biden’s admin imposes it?

I hope he would stay consistent no matter the administration.


----------



## Desert Hound (Nov 30, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Florida is one I'll be watching closely. They have already had a lot of cases and they don't have any restrictions as far as I can tell.


Florida lifted ALL restrictions in September.


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

More to Kicking and Screaming point, Switzerland's curve has broken despite schools/worship/bars/restaurants open.  I agree this is increasingly looking like a seasonal wave and the 2nd in a typical 1-2-3 respiratory epidemic pattern.  Question then becomes if we have enough immunity/vaccine to forestall a 3rd wave.









						„Wir können nur spekulieren“: Die wundersame Corona-Wende in der Schweiz
					

Alle Intensivbetten belegt: Noch vor einer Woche galt die Schweiz als das große Corona-Sorgenkind Europas. Jetzt jedoch zeigt die Schweizer Kurve steil nach unten – obwohl die Politik keine größeren Maßnahmen erlassen hat. Selbst Experten sind verblüfft.




					www.focus.de


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

Meanwhile despite much praise to Canada for it's vigilence we have this.......









						Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

And Fauci still banging the drum that we should expect "surge upon surge" and the media all too happy to spread the fear porn.....


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Nov 30, 2020)

Do COVID vaccined folks have to quarantine for 14 days?


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I don’t think that will go well for him. We are dipping into the last of the good will even in blue states (given, rightly or wrongly, the allegations of fraud and how the election went down the red states are already there). Can’t tell you how many conversations I had with people this weekend about looking forward to things being different in the new year (because of the vaccine, schools/sports planning being out to new year, the new Biden admin/trump out, or just the calendar). Lots of people being set up for disappointment and this would pile on it.
> 
> I respect your point of view on not prejudging the admin so long as you were consistent with whichever team is in place. I prejudged the last one...like the last one I see some disturbing trends.


What "allegations of fraud" do you find credible?


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> And Fauci still banging the drum that we should expect "surge upon surge" and the media all too happy to spread the fear porn.....


After the initial surge starting in March, we had one starting in July and one starting in October.  That's about every 4 months, more or less.


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

espola said:


> What "allegations of fraud" do you find credible?



With the qualification that this isn't my balliwick, I think it's been proven there have been matters of fraud, most notably people who no longer live in the state voting in the state notwithstanding they are no longer residents.  There was even an instance of a poll worker caught on tape destroying a Trump ballot and flipping it the bird (corrective steps were taken in that case).  There are also some statistical anomalies regarding the rate of which signatures in Biden heavy areas have been rejected in comparison to past elections.  There is definitely some smoke there.

The legal issue is that smoke isn't enough to overturn a democratic election and the Trump campaign has been very short on proof that would show a massive conspiracy in the amounts necessary to overturn some of these margins.  And when you are pursuing a lawsuit, let alone trying to overturn a democratic election, yes the burden of proof is absolutely on you.  Legally, the Trump campaign would have to prove that not only was there fraud, but the fraud was in such a level that it would have overturned a democratic election.  In Pennsylvania their strongest argument is that the mail in ballots were not constitutional under the PA constitution, but it's complicated, and it's a little late to be making this argument.

But that's not the only question.  The other question is do Republican voters believe the election was stolen and a surprising number of them do. And it's not just the legal stealing which counts in this question but the thumb which several people have put on the scales such as: the Russia investigation, the impeachment, the press bias (including during debate moderation), the position taken by big tech, the mass mail in ballots, and now the allegations of cheating (even if that cheating, such as restricting poll monitors from observing, didn't in fact change the outcome of the election).  It sets up a situation where the narrative from here from Trump is that the election was stolen, and a large part of the Republican base will believe it.  Add to this that Biden seems reluctant to publicly go against his experts (even the ones on his taskforce calling for a lockdown) and seems to be reinstalling a lot of Obama admin people in the admin (as opposed to Sanders/Warrens rebels, and which will be characterized by Rs as the swamp coming back).

More concerning, the polls showed a large number of D voters doubted the legitimacy of the 2016 elections.  Build in 2000 to that and you have a situation rapidly developing where neither party will believe in the veracity of elections and will be determined to do whatever it takes to put a thumb on the scale for the next one.  It's not a good situation for a republic when election integrity begins to disintegrate.


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

A great article making a point I've been harping on for months now........









						The COVID Science Wars
					

Shutting down scientific debate is hurting the public health




					www.scientificamerican.com


----------



## watfly (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> A great article making a point I've been harping on for months now........
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Pretty much says it all.  Debate is dead.  You either shout down the opposing opinion, prevent it from being heard in the first place, mischaracterize your opponents argument and/or insult your opponent while being sanctimonious about it the entire time, aka "I know what's best for you".   Or the nuclear option which is apparently to threaten the person's life for having an opinion different than yours.


----------



## notintheface (Nov 30, 2020)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Do COVID vaccined folks have to quarantine for 14 days?


No. None of the vaccines will be a live virus, eg you can't infect anyone if you get any of the vaccines.

My understanding is that you get one shot which kickstarts the antibody creation, then after two weeks you get the booster shot which your body uses to give the long-lasting immunity.

I'm interpreting this as "don't go out to a bar the night after you get your vaccine". Maybe there will be a 30-day window after your first shot where you should continue to behave as if you could be infected at any time? Not sure-- doctors will be given the best advice to give to their patients.


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> With the qualification that this isn't my balliwick, I think it's been proven there have been matters of fraud, most notably people who no longer live in the state voting in the state notwithstanding they are no longer residents.  There was even an instance of a poll worker caught on tape destroying a Trump ballot and flipping it the bird (corrective steps were taken in that case).  There are also some statistical anomalies regarding the rate of which signatures in Biden heavy areas have been rejected in comparison to past elections.  There is definitely some smoke there.
> 
> The legal issue is that smoke isn't enough to overturn a democratic election and the Trump campaign has been very short on proof that would show a massive conspiracy in the amounts necessary to overturn some of these margins.  And when you are pursuing a lawsuit, let alone trying to overturn a democratic election, yes the burden of proof is absolutely on you.  Legally, the Trump campaign would have to prove that not only was there fraud, but the fraud was in such a level that it would have overturned a democratic election.  In Pennsylvania their strongest argument is that the mail in ballots were not constitutional under the PA constitution, but it's complicated, and it's a little late to be making this argument.
> 
> ...


People registered to vote and then sent away on military or other government orders are still allowed to vote in their precinct of registration even if they have not lived in that precinct for years.  Maybe you should consult a lawyer.  

"an instance of a poll worker caught on tape destroying a Trump ballot and flipping it the bird"  -- I have not heard of that one.  Do you have a link to the story?

Statistical anomalies?  Isn't that Rudy's latest position?  Or Sidney's?

The real question is how long it will take the most ardent trumpists (that is certainly not all Republicans) to realize they have been hoodwinked for 4 years.


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> A great article making a point I've been harping on for months now........
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The point of the article is that in our response to the pandemic we should look for something "acceptable".


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

espola said:


> People registered to vote and then sent away on military or other government orders are still allowed to vote in their precinct of registration even if they have not lived in that precinct for years.  Maybe you should consult a lawyer.
> 
> "an instance of a poll worker caught on tape destroying a Trump ballot and flipping it the bird"  -- I have not heard of that one.  Do you have a link to the story?
> 
> ...


Nah this is people who filed a change of address card and still voted.  The poll worker was on election night and was tweeted.  I'm not going to search past tweets for an hour to find it for you, but it was reported to have been dealt with.

47% of Republicans think the election was stolen and 70% didn't think it was free and fair.  That ain't good.


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

espola said:


> The point of the article is that in our response to the pandemic we should look for something "acceptable".


Would love to see what you pull on the SAT reading comprehension portion.  The point of the article is that scientific questioning and debate is being shut down, and they compare it to past times its happened (like the cholera outbreaks).


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Would love to see what you pull on the SAT reading comprehension portion.  The point of the article is that scientific questioning and debate is being shut down, and they compare it to past times its happened (like the cholera outbreaks).


"Reading comprehension " again?  They have changed the names of the tests since I took them, but I placed in the upper 2% of what they were giving at the time.  

As for debate being "shut down", I haven't had any trouble reading multiple opinions since the excitement started.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Dec 1, 2020)

espola said:


> The real question is how long it will take the most ardent trumpists (that is certainly not all Republicans) to realize they have been hoodwinked for 4 years.


You mean because Mueller couldn't prove Russian collusion?  Or is it because Biden reminds you of Mueller?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 1, 2020)

It's too early to draw a conclusion, but no surge noticed due to Thanksgiving so far. Here are 11 states that were into a downturn in cases before Thanksgiving and have continued in that direction. There are quite a few other states that appeared to start down around Thanksgiving and have continued down. Additionally, only the following states were showing a noticeable increase in cases the last week.
-- NV, OH, PA, DE, NJ, CA, NC, NY, OR, VA, DC.











						Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
					

A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.



					www.nytimes.com


----------



## N00B (Dec 1, 2020)

crush said:


> @Grace T.  Do you have a favorite Palm you want share with all of us today?  I love me some Palmist on Thanksgiving Day.  I'm reading one of my Palms today before our family dinner.  We will all stay as a single family unit today and then do a virtual "We miss you grandma and grandpa."  Tomorrow is another day and we will celebrate the day after, Thanks


You asked Grace for a Psalm, but I’ll give you a Proverb 14:31

“Whoever oppresses the poor shows contempt for their Maker, but whoever is kind to the needy honors God.”

It’s the kindness that is most needed in these times.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 2, 2020)

espola said:


> I haven't had any trouble reading multiple opinions since the excitement started.


Hahaha! Were you able to read the studies that had the scientific support of experts in the months before they were published? Science doesn't suppress studies with unpopular results, but those trying to control others do.


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Hahaha! Were you able to read the studies that had the scientific support of experts in the months before they were published? Science doesn't suppress studies with unpopular results, but those trying to control others do.


I'm sure you have a few good examples.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 2, 2020)

espola said:


> I'm sure you have a few good examples.


As many as voter fraud examples.


----------



## crush (Dec 3, 2020)

N00B said:


> You asked Grace for a Psalm, but I’ll give you a Proverb 14:31
> 
> “Whoever oppresses the poor shows contempt for their Maker, but whoever is kind to the needy honors God.”
> 
> It’s the kindness that is most needed in these times.


Kindness with truth, yes!!!  Kindness with lies is no bueno!!!
*Proverbs 12:15,17,19,20 and 22*

*15* *Stupid people always think they are right.* Wise people listen to advice. 

*17* *When you tell the truth, justice is done, but lies lead to injustice. 

19* *A lie has a short life, but truth lives on forever. 

20* *Those who plan evil are in for a rude surprise*, but those who work for good will find happiness. 

*22* *The Lord hates liars,* *but is pleased with those who keep their word. *


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> As many as voter fraud examples.


Weren't you the one that was complaining about spin?  A. It's very clear there's been voter fraud.  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/nevada-fraud-1-500-dead-voters-42-248-voted-multiple-times-rv-camps-as-homes  B. There has been presented no proof of a vast Democratic conspiracy that stole the election....if anything it's a bunch of orgs running around trying to bend the rules (such as giving out gift cards for votes in Nevada) or vote harvesting, C. To overturn a democratic election in court (or throw out votes), the burden of proof is absolutely on Trump, D. He not only has to show fraud but fraud in amounts necessary to overturn the margins in the relevant states, E. Given the time crunch, it's highly unlikely he'd be able to show that (that level of specity takes months) now or really ever (again there's plenty of smoke, but you need poof of fire here).


----------



## espola (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Weren't you the one that was complaining about spin?  A. It's very clear there's been voter fraud.  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/nevada-fraud-1-500-dead-voters-42-248-voted-multiple-times-rv-camps-as-homes  B. There has been presented no proof of a vast Democratic conspiracy that stole the election....if anything it's a bunch of orgs running around trying to bend the rules (such as giving out gift cards for votes in Nevada) or vote harvesting, C. To overturn a democratic election in court (or throw out votes), the burden of proof is absolutely on Trump, D. He not only has to show fraud but fraud in amounts necessary to overturn the margins in the relevant states, E. Given the time crunch, it's highly unlikely he'd be able to show that (that level of specity takes months) now or really ever (again there's plenty of smoke, but you need poof of fire here).


That's an opinion column (strike one) in the Washington Examiner (strike two) that quotes the lawyer for only one side (you;'re out).


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> That's an opinion column (strike one) in the Washington Examiner (strike two) that quotes the lawyer for only one side (you;'re out).


It's not my side dumb dumb.  As I said, I think he will and should lose given the evidence to date.  But it's very clear there is evidence of voter fraud.  To say there's none completely undermines your side's credibility.


----------



## espola (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> It's not my side dumb dumb.  As I said, I think he will and should lose given the evidence to date.  But it's very clear there is evidence of voter fraud.  To say there's none completely undermines your side's credibility.


What is "my side"?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> What is "my side"?


I've always pictured you more as a triange kind of guy with 3 sides.  I'm an icosahedron.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> That's an opinion column (strike one) in the Washington Examiner (strike two) that quotes the lawyer for only one side (you;'re out).


Yikes!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334585894553182215


----------



## dad4 (Dec 6, 2020)

Back to good news, any read on the following is welcome.

National daily reported cases seem to be momentarily hovering at 200k.  One million per 5 days.  

Some states in the middle of the country seem to be seriously slowing down, usually in the 6% to 10% confirmed cases range.  (arguably depending on temperature, pop density, local rules, degree of compliance, and so on.)

I place this as meaning that overall cases should slow down as the nation nears 6%.  (I took the low end on the assumption that the states with North Dakota style habits are already experiencing North Dakota style case loads.)

Anyway, if it tapers off at 6% then things start calming down around Dec 31.  Or, once we add in a bump for the Christmas travel, late January.

That conclusion is not too different from the (much more sophisticated) IHME national projection.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Back to good news, any read on the following is welcome.
> 
> National daily reported cases seem to be momentarily hovering at 200k.  One million per 5 days.
> 
> ...


Missed this - spending too much time in the Bad News Thread.

Hard to argue with any of it. The one thing I notice when looking at the individual state case graphs on NYTimes, states that had a very steep increase for about 3 weeks also had a very fast drop. The hope is that RI, NY, CA, DE, MA and a few other east coast states max out in less than a week and do the same. CA graph is STEEP right now.

My "Good News" is that while cases are still trending up, Rt has gone from two states in the green a few days back to 11 states. Of those states, only VT and WA don't also have a graph trend that supports further downward movement. The next 11, to UT, all show signs that they may be at or just past peak.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 10, 2020)

Santa Clara got their first batch of vaccine. Front-line workers and residents of nursing homes first. While this is a relatively small population and may not do much to slow the spread, it has the potential to have a significant effect on the death rate since these older folks are, by far, at the highest risk. I think I'll drink to this - one Margarita for Dad and a shot of Vodka for Grace.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Santa Clara got their first batch of vaccine. Front-line workers and residents of nursing homes first. While this is a relatively small population and may not do much to slow the spread, it has the potential to have a significant effect on the death rate since these older folks are, by far, at the highest risk. I think I'll drink to this - one Margarita for Dad and a shot of Vodka for Grace.


I'll drink to that.  I've offered dad an armistice. We'll see if he takes it.


----------



## N00B (Dec 10, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Santa Clara got their first batch of vaccine. Front-line workers and residents of nursing homes first. While this is a relatively small population and may not do much to slow the spread, it has the potential to have a significant effect on the death rate since these older folks are, by far, at the highest risk. I think I'll drink to this - one Margarita for Dad and a shot of Vodka for Grace.


The distribution plans do bug me a bit.  

With more than a passing knowledge of nursing homes, I understand there is a group of willing, at risk, and relatively compliant population with an ease of distribution on site (vaccine needs to be kept extremely cold and distributed quickly).

... but that population has no outside exposure at present other than the facility staff. Staff that should be one the priority list as essential workers... many of which are low income (social equity in distribution) and likely live in communities with a greater rate of spread.

Seems like you could protect two groups (workers and elderly) more efficiently with fewer doses.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

N00B said:


> The distribution plans do bug me a bit.
> 
> With more than a passing knowledge of nursing homes, I understand there is a group of willing, at risk, and relatively compliant population with an ease of distribution on site (vaccine needs to be kept extremely cold and distributed quickly).
> 
> ...


The issue is they can't keep them from visitors forever and in August-September at least our local homes had allowed visits with certain restrictions (ourdoors, temp checks, masks, no children).  The other issues is they'd likely have to make it mandatory since some workers will say no, and it doesn't seem they are quite yet ready to have that fight.  That said, so far in most states facility staff are in the second tier.

The thing I don't understand is why vaccinate front line health care workers first, particularly if they are under 50 or have had it already.  Maybe because they think medical professionals would be more willing to take it, have access to treatment if needed, and can be experimented on for a while to build confidence?

The side effects/allergy issue has hit the WSJ.  We should know in a week or two how pronounced these issues are.









						Covid-19 Vaccines Pose Potential Side Effects, Doctors Say
					

While researchers haven’t found serious safety issues with two vaccines that are expected to be authorized for emergency use, the shots might come with possible side effects including fever, fatigue, headache and arm pain.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## watfly (Dec 10, 2020)

A buddy who is at the highest levels of healthcare in SoCal is confident that any adult that wants a vaccine will have it by May.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Yikes!
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334585894553182215


We have body cameras for the police, which is a great idea. Why don't we have cameras set up at all the polling stations and have it live-streamed?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 11, 2020)

Am I missing something?  Pulled these numbers straight from the CDC website, but am not 100% sure this show what I think it shows:


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 11, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> Am I missing something?  Pulled these numbers straight from the CDC website, but am not 100% sure this show what I think it shows:
> 
> View attachment 9652


Hmmm. Based on “expected” deaths we are over


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 11, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Hmmm. Based on “expected” deaths we are over


You have to scroll down a ways to get to the graph.






						Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
					

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 11, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> You have to scroll down a ways to get to the graph.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So what am I missing?  They expected less deaths in 2020 than 2019 or 2018?  Just trying to understand where the gaps are.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 11, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> So what am I missing?  They expected less deaths in 2020 than 2019 or 2018?  Just trying to understand where the gaps are.


Agreed. It looks like conflicting information to me as well.


----------



## notintheface (Dec 14, 2020)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1338361714631299073
Beginning of the end.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 14, 2020)

@dad4 hit hardest with this one.

"During a news conference last week, Gov. Cuomo put up a chart highlighting where the novel coronavirus is being spread. It turns out, a shocking 74 percent of new cases were caught at gatherings in private homes. Restaurants and bars, meanwhile, accounted for just 1.43 percent."


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 14, 2020)

No delays from any states on vaccine distribution for independent review. As expected, that was simple pandering to the base.

“Frankly, I’m not going to trust the federal government’s opinion, and I wouldn’t recommend to New Yorkers, based on the federal government’s opinion,” Mr. Cuomo said at a news briefing.









						New York Will Review Virus Vaccines, Citing Politicization of Process (Published 2020)
					

New York officials do not play a role in the approval of a vaccine, but could delay distribution if they believed the vaccine was not safe.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 14, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> @dad4 hit hardest with this one.
> 
> "During a news conference last week, Gov. Cuomo put up a chart highlighting where the novel coronavirus is being spread. It turns out, a shocking 74 percent of new cases were caught at gatherings in private homes. Restaurants and bars, meanwhile, accounted for just 1.43 percent."


provides pretty compelling reason for why masks aren’t working either. If they are gathering in the homes they probably aren’t wearing masks there either.  I know the dangybros that threw the kegger next door weren’t wearing masks in between their chugs.


----------



## crush (Dec 14, 2020)

The good news is we know who already sold their souls.  Dont tell the people, show the people.  Love you Grace.  Stay safe


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 14, 2020)

A video of someone who apparently had a bad reaction to the covid vaccination. Either that or he may have taken another drug or two 

Also I thought what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. This video proves otherwise. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1337895723442946050


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 14, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> A video of someone who apparently had a bad reaction to the covid vaccination. Either that or he may have taken another drug or two
> 
> Also I thought what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. This video proves otherwise.
> 
> ...


Nononono


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 14, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> @dad4 hit hardest with this one.
> 
> "During a news conference last week, Gov. Cuomo put up a chart highlighting where the novel coronavirus is being spread. It turns out, a shocking 74 percent of new cases were caught at gatherings in private homes. Restaurants and bars, meanwhile, accounted for just 1.43 percent."


Health-care delivery - an activity that is difficult to modify to lower risk  - contributed 7.8% of the cases and was second to "household/social gatherings". This is more support for vaccinating the front-line workers first. College students and education workers are next.

--- From article

Topping the list (see below) was “household/social gatherings,” linked to 73.8% of the exposures. Health-care delivery was a distant second at 7.8%. It was followed by college students and education workers. 

Further down, at No. 5, “restaurants & bars” were linked to 1.4% of exposures.









						NY data lists restaurants as low coronavirus risk. Owners ask: Then why is Cuomo killing us?
					

Cuomo chart shows dining out linked to 1.4% of recent cases.




					www.syracuse.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 14, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Health-care delivery - an activity that is difficult to modify to lower risk  - contributed 7.8% of the cases and was second to "household/social gatherings". This is more support for vaccinating the front-line workers first. College students and education workers are next.
> 
> --- From article
> 
> ...


Even giving you give them the benefit of the doubt that the 1.4% of exposures is low, and even it's off by a magnitude of 10x, it's still a pretty good explanation (if it holds) for why non-medical government interventions like partial lockdowns and mask mandates haven't been able to prevent cases from exploding.  Remember Los Angeles has had indoor dining closed and a mask mandate for a very long time.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 14, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Health-care delivery - an activity that is difficult to modify to lower risk  - contributed 7.8% of the cases and was second to "household/social gatherings". This is more support for vaccinating the front-line workers first. College students and education workers are next.
> 
> --- From article
> 
> ...


Bueller? Bueller?

Sorry I mean @dad4 @dad4


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 14, 2020)

@dad4 comments?

Take a look where they find what activities are associated with positive cases.

Besides restaurants not being an issue look at sports or church. 

I believe those are your main activities you dislike and/or are worried about.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 14, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> @dad4 comments?
> 
> Take a look where they find what activities are associated with positive cases.
> 
> ...


So what is your theory again for the recent spikes again @dad4  ?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 14, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> @dad4 comments?
> 
> Take a look where they find what activities are associated with positive cases.
> 
> ...


I

There's this now too.  Also interesting that asymptomatics just aren't much of a driver.  Another reason why government interventions such as lockdowns and masks don't appear to be working much.









						Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2
					

This systematic review and meta-analysis examines evidence for household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), disaggregated by several covariates, and compares it with other coronaviruses




					jamanetwork.com


----------



## crush (Dec 15, 2020)

*Huntington Beach Union teachers working remotely asked to return to classrooms*

The high school district has directed teachers to return to the classroom* Jan. 5, 2021* or take a leave.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 15, 2020)

crush said:


> *Huntington Beach Union teachers working remotely asked to return to classrooms*
> 
> The high school district has directed teachers to return to the classroom* Jan. 5, 2021* or take a leave.


The question then is do they get paid if they take a leave.


----------



## crush (Dec 15, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> The question then is do they get paid if they take a leave.


I believe they will get paid to leave.  It's not their fault Hound and some teachers have real health concerns.  I miss you.  How's AZ?  Anyone from HB on here?  I went down last weekend and I saw no mask.  It was so different.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 15, 2020)

crush said:


> I believe they will get paid to leave.  It's not their fault Hound and some teachers have real health concerns.  I miss you.  How's AZ?  Anyone from HB on here?  I went down last weekend and I saw no mask.  It was so different.


AZ is good. Practices are in full swing. 

Most girls are doing HS practice right now. At the DDs club the very few that are not doing HS are practicing with a lot of college girls. So that is very good experience for them. A scrimmage last week vs another club who has training for college kids and then more scrimmages to come including this weekend.


----------



## crush (Dec 15, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> AZ is good. Practices are in full swing.
> 
> Most girls are doing HS practice right now. At the DDs club the very few that are not doing HS are practicing with a lot of college girls. So that is very good experience for them. A scrimmage last week vs another club who has training for college kids and then more scrimmages to come including this weekend.


Sorry for bringing all the Rona from California Hound.  Your state was so kind to open up for us.  I know we brought $$$ but that's not good enough anymore.  Were hoping to get High School ball running asap.  I hear some HS School teams from Cali are looking to get a few scrimmages with AZ HS teams.  Did you hear about that one?


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 15, 2020)

crush said:


> Sorry for bringing all the Rona from California Hound.  Your state was so kind to open up for us.  I know we brought $$$ but that's not good enough anymore.  Were hoping to get High School ball running asap.  I hear some HS School teams from Cali are looking to get a few scrimmages with AZ HS teams.  Did you hear about that one?


Have not heard about that one. But to be fair I wouldn't be the person to know regarding HS soccer. 

And apology accepted. I heard 3 different outbreaks were tied to you when you came out here


----------



## crush (Dec 15, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Have not heard about that one. But to be fair I wouldn't be the person to know regarding HS soccer.
> 
> And apology accepted. I heard 3 different outbreaks were tied to you when you came out here


Bro, did you get it from me after dinner and drinks?  We did have our mask on the whole time before we went into bar and after we left so I can;t see how you got Rona from us and I never hugged you.  I think we did a fist pump and then you offered me hand cleanser if I'm not mistaken?  Stop blaming me for all your ills bro.  Not cool.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Dec 15, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> @dad4 comments?
> 
> Take a look where they find what activities are associated with positive cases.
> 
> ...


The Law of Unintended consequences.  But the Cases versus Death gap is huge.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 15, 2020)

Nationwide, we appear to have reached the top / very near the top of the cases in the current surge. I took a quick look at the individual states to see the general direction from data as of Dec 7 to data as of Dec 14. Overall, states are trending down with 30 rising more slowly or trending down faster than last week. I only count 5 with cases rising faster than last week. The east coast has slowed their increases considerably and CA is showing some signs of slowing the explosive growth - but still growing fast. We also appear to be past any Thanksgiving effect. There was a noticable bump in many individual states' data starting about a week after Thanksgiving (interestingly preceded by a noticable dip seen on the national level), but many (all?) states that were trending down prior to Thanksgiving are trending down currently after the Thanksgiving bump up. Once CA starts dropping, cases will trend down strongly.


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 15, 2020)

Maybe Grace can chime in on this, but I thought this was promising.









						Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes Antigen Test as First Over-the-Counter Fully At-Home Diagnostic Test for COVID-19
					

Today, the FDA issued an EUA for the first over-the-counter (OTC) fully at-home diagnostic test for COVID-19




					www.fda.gov


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 15, 2020)

crush said:


> I believe they will get paid to leave.  It's not their fault Hound and some teachers have real health concerns.  I miss you.  How's AZ?  Anyone from HB on here?  I went down last weekend and I saw no mask.  It was so different.


Lots of people were told they had to take a leave (aka Furloughed) because of restrictions.  They weren’t getting paid.  Had to file for Unemployment.

Will be interesting to see how the Unions handle this one.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 15, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Nationwide, we appear to have reached the top / very near the top of the cases in the current surge. I took a quick look at the individual states to see the general direction from data as of Dec 7 to data as of Dec 14. Overall, states are trending down with 30 rising more slowly or trending down faster than last week. I only count 5 with cases rising faster than last week. The east coast has slowed their increases considerably and CA is showing some signs of slowing the explosive growth - but still growing fast. We also appear to be past any Thanksgiving effect. There was a noticable bump in many individual states' data starting about a week after Thanksgiving (interestingly preceded by a noticable dip seen on the national level), but many (all?) states that were trending down prior to Thanksgiving are trending down currently after the Thanksgiving bump up. Once CA starts dropping, cases will trend down strongly.
> 
> View attachment 9677
> View attachment 9678


Another "indicator" that things are moving the right direction. About a week or so ago, only two states were "green"

**


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 15, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Another "indicator" that things are moving the right direction. About a week or so ago, only two states were "green"
> 
> *View attachment 9687*



Wow Hawaii.....probably the only state to handle things more stupidly than California or New York.  Wrecked their economy with 7 months of lockdowns and sealing themselves off only to open back up when things are at at their worst on the mainland.  When they opened up, I'm sure dad loves that they have indoor dining open at 50% capacity.  The airplane policy is they require you to have a negative COVID test or to quarantine 14 days but that means you might be traveling with someone asymptomatic and catch it on the plane and then spread it at your hotel.  Their school policy has been an absolute mess.  

I keep getting emails from them offering to pay for my flight for free if I'm a remote worker, go for 30 days or more, and commit to doing some zoom community service (whatever that is).


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 15, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Wow Hawaii.....probably the only state to handle things more stupidly than California or New York.  Wrecked their economy with 7 months of lockdowns and sealing themselves off only to open back up when things are at at their worst on the mainland.  When they opened up, I'm sure dad loves that they have indoor dining open at 50% capacity.  The airplane policy is they require you to have a negative COVID test or to quarantine 14 days but that means you might be traveling with someone asymptomatic and catch it on the plane and then spread it at your hotel.  Their school policy has been an absolute mess.
> 
> I keep getting emails from them offering to pay for my flight for free if I'm a remote worker, go for 30 days or more, and commit to doing some zoom community service (whatever that is).


They need the vaccine ASAP.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 15, 2020)

Vaccine number 2 about ready to go. Hard to believe we are going to have two vaccines in about 10 months. This is truly an amazing accomplishment.









						Moderna Vaccine Is Highly Protective Against Covid-19, the F.D.A. Finds (Published 2020)
					

The positive review most likely ensures that the Food and Drug Administration will grant emergency authorization to a second coronavirus vaccine this week for millions of Americans.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 16, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Vaccine number 2 about ready to go. Hard to believe we are going to have two vaccines in about 10 months. This is truly an amazing accomplishment.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Let’s pray all goes well!


----------



## crush (Dec 16, 2020)

Congrats to Laura!!!!!
*Laura Ingraham signs multi-year deal to remain at Fox News: ‘It is a great privilege’* ((you think?))

*"The fraud happened. The election in many ways was stolen and the only way it will be fixed is by in the future reinforcing the laws."*

So she signs a big fat deal for millions and tells us all the election was loaded with fraud and stolen from 74,000,000 Americans.  However, we will deal with it in da future and enforce the laws next time?  Oh joy, this is going to get real interesting.  Who the heck thinks this is going to be ok?  I'm happy she got rich in all this, but that is just weird to be bragging about this fat raise during the worst time ever for so many of us.


----------



## crush (Dec 17, 2020)

Now that they can stay open and the men can have a place to go, can we have a place for girls to play soccer?  This is so lame and wrong I can;t believe we all sit around and watch this before our very eyes.  
*Strip Clubs Lead the Way: Judge Blocks San Diego Coronavirus Restrictions*


----------



## watfly (Dec 17, 2020)

crush said:


> Now that they can stay open and the men can have a place to go, can we have a place for girls to play soccer?  This is so lame and wrong I can;t believe we all sit around and watch this before our very eyes.
> *Strip Clubs Lead the Way: Judge Blocks San Diego Coronavirus Restrictions*
> 
> 
> View attachment 9703


Hard to believe that strip clubs would pave the way for our freedoms.  Judge left the door wide open for restaurants.  Youth soccer needs to hire these attorneys immediately as do parents that want schools open.  Interesting how the Judge's decision was apparently tied to ICU beds and not infections.









						Judge ruling allows San Diego strip clubs and restaurant businesses to remain open -
					

SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – A judge’s ruling in the lawsuit filed by San Diego strip clubs may affect every restaurant business in San Diego County. Judge Joel Wohlfeil ruled that Pacers and Cheetah’s can remain open despite Governor Newsom’s regional stay-at-home order. But, his ruling goes much farther...




					www.kusi.com


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 17, 2020)

watfly said:


> Hard to believe that strip clubs would pave the way for our freedoms.  Judge left the door wide open for restaurants.  Youth soccer needs to hire these attorneys immediately as do parents that want schools open.  Interesting how the Judge's decision was apparently tied to ICU beds and not infections.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Smart people say follow the science......


----------



## watfly (Dec 17, 2020)

Ruling gets even better:

“The court’s intention is all businesses which provide restaurant services in the county of San Diego are encompassed in the court’s order,” he said.









						Judge clarifies ruling on COVID-19 restrictions applies to restaurants in county; state plans appeal
					

The ruling by Superior Court Judge Joel Wohlfeil was welcomed by restaurant owners, who remain cautious




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 18, 2020)

Fingers crossed but with a little luck Los Angeles County at least may be at (or near) peak.  If not now, hopefully by the New Year.





__





						LA County Daily COVID-19 Data - LA County Department of Public Health
					





					publichealth.lacounty.gov


----------



## dad4 (Dec 18, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Fingers crossed but with a little luck Los Angeles County at least may be at (or near) peak.  If not now, hopefully by the New Year.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That links to a graph of tests performed.  

How does a peak in tests performed imply a peak in cases?


----------



## N00B (Dec 18, 2020)

dad4 said:


> That links to a graph of tests performed.
> 
> How does a peak in tests performed imply a peak in cases?


Agree if tests performed are based on capacity of testing (plateau would indicate capacity not infection threshold). However, if testing capacity is not the cause of the plateau, but percentage of the population that is symptomatic seeking testing, then there may be some correlation when comparing this chart to %positivity. 
I’ve gotten the impression that Grace looks at multiple sources of information... so what may not stand out as significant or relevant, in and of itself only, may still be significant in the context of other information (likely previously addressed here or elsewhere on this forum).


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 18, 2020)

dad4 said:


> That links to a graph of tests performed.
> 
> How does a peak in tests performed imply a peak in cases?


other charts....they unfortunately don't collate them into a single one for some reason


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 18, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> other charts....they unfortunately don't collate them into a single one for some reason


If you look at the daily cases they top out at 12725 on 12-11.   The 12th and 13th are weekend numbers so you have discount those. If you look at the 7 day average chart it's falling too.  You then got to look at the testing by date which is pretty flat.  The reason I said might is because there looks to be a reporting lag on 12-15 and 12-16.  Sorry for the confusion....I'm moving very fast so sometimes just short hand it and cut corners.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 18, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> If you look at the daily cases they top out at 12725 on 12-11.   The 12th and 13th are weekend numbers so you have discount those. If you look at the 7 day average chart it's falling too.  You then got to look at the testing by date which is pretty flat.  The reason I said might is because there looks to be a reporting lag on 12-15 and 12-16.  Sorry for the confusion....I'm moving very fast so sometimes just short hand it and cut corners.


Ah.  I think LA must be getting close to peak.  you’re at almost 6%.

I just don’t see it in the data yet.  positivity is still going up.  And Christmas is going to make it worse.  After that, you ought to be able to bring it down.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 19, 2020)

“We’re rounding the curve! Many people say we did a great job millions would have died if we had done absolutely nothing!” Thousands would have survived if we had just taken it half-way seriously.


----------



## crush (Dec 19, 2020)

Good job security.  Get those three men not wearing a mask.  Can you believe that this club is open for biz and all you have to do is wear a mask to get entertainment for men.  Other dads on here want to go to help soccer "clubs" stay open so they can watch their dd play soccer outside, during the day, with their mask on too but that is not allowed.  

*3 arrested in Anaheim strip club shooting were kicked out for not wearing masks, police believe*


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 19, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Ah.  I think LA must be getting close to peak.  you’re at almost 6%.
> 
> I just don’t see it in the data yet.  positivity is still going up.  And Christmas is going to make it worse.  After that, you ought to be able to bring it down.


Positivity may be artificially inflated due to: 1) the change of advice from county health authorities (from everyone get a test to just get one if you need it), 2) the long lines at drive thru sites, 3) av production being suspended for the holiday weeks, and 4) school activities and day cares being suspended for the holiday. Around the country thanksgiving led to small bumps in cases but didn’t alter overall trends (places rising still rise, places falling still fell). With shopping winding down, day cares taking a break, studios shutting down, and even non-emergency doctors taking a week off hopefully it’s a wash. I’ll know better on Monday when I get a chance to see the freeways.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 19, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Positivity may be artificially inflated due to: 1) the change of advice from county health authorities (from everyone get a test to just get one if you need it), 2) the long lines at drive thru sites, 3) av production being suspended for the holiday weeks, and 4) school activities and day cares being suspended for the holiday. Around the country thanksgiving led to small bumps in cases but didn’t alter overall trends (places rising still rise, places falling still fell). With shopping winding down, day cares taking a break, studios shutting down, and even non-emergency doctors taking a week off hopefully it’s a wash. I’ll know better on Monday when I get a chance to see the freeways.


I've been looking at positivity to guess the relationship between confirmed and actual cases.

LA had a low multiplier for a while, but most of the cases have happened recently, when the multiplier was high.

In areas with low overall cases, turkey day seems to cause large a one time bump in cases, after which the growth goes back to what it was/would have been.

For socal, I think this will push you into decline, assuming no policy or compliance changes.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 19, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “We’re rounding the curve! Many people say we did a great job millions would have died if we had done absolutely nothing!” Thousands would have survived if we had just taken it half-way seriously.


I'm just saying we ran out of people to infect.  Don't mistake my nonsense for optimism.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 19, 2020)

dad4 said:


> In areas with low overall cases, turkey day seems to cause large a one time bump in cases, after which the growth goes back to what it was/would have been.


Looking at the state case graphs supports this.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 19, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I've been looking at positivity to guess the relationship between confirmed and actual cases.
> 
> LA had a low multiplier for a while, but most of the cases have happened recently, when the multiplier was high.
> 
> ...


One sm friend I get info from covid and other things (the bad cat) thinks SoCal in general tops out by New Years. He’s been extremely right about everything including the southern summer wave. The bad news is he thinks the west coast wave (driven by NorCal Oregon and Seattle) is just really getting started and won’t be going into decline any time soon.  He also thinks notwithstanding vaccine deployment the SoCal slump will be very slow. If true bad news for SoCal...very bad news for NorCal. It’s only one persons guess but he has been accurate to date.


----------



## notintheface (Dec 21, 2020)

More Than 12.7 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker
					

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 US states and territories




					www.bloomberg.com
				




556k US healthcare workers in the first week.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Dec 21, 2020)

crush said:


> Now that they can stay open and the men can have a place to go, can we have a place for girls to play soccer?  This is so lame and wrong I can;t believe we all sit around and watch this before our very eyes.
> *Strip Clubs Lead the Way: Judge Blocks San Diego Coronavirus Restrictions*
> 
> 
> View attachment 9703


I hope she's not walking to work.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 22, 2020)

This is the best this graph has looked in some time.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 22, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This is the best this graph has looked in some time.
> 
> View attachment 9766





kickingandscreaming said:


> This is the best this graph has looked in some time.
> 
> View attachment 9766


Kansas and Tennessee have been especially hard hit in recent weeks.  Looks like they are both improving.  California still not looking so good (my friend may be right....few week to go before peak especially norcal).  Looks like it's Oklahoma's turn from Kansas, West Virginia from Tennessee.   New Hampshire and Maine (which had been spared a lot to date) getting hit.   What's up with Hawaii?  And how's Washington managed to escape things for so long?


----------



## socalkdg (Dec 22, 2020)

Have to believe this will be the last spike.   With vaccine available plus the shear numbers of people that have already got it,  figure it starts to go down by 3rd week in Jan.   Hoping.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 22, 2020)

Since we’ve been in this revised/updated STAY AT home order for about 3 weeks now, why are cases still flying high?  I mean, no outdoor sports, no outdoor dining, kids haven’t been in school....we are 4 weeks past ThanksGiving........why is LA still skyrocketing?

Better yet, why didn’t Newsome do anything to push to prepare excess capacity for Hospitals and ICU’s (including staffing)?  I mean, they’ve been talking about a Holiday spike since 
July.  They were able to build out make shift triage’s at almost every hospital in CA back in March and did it in record time, why not plan ahead when you know it’s coming?


----------



## crush (Dec 22, 2020)




----------



## notintheface (Dec 23, 2020)

1 million people in the US vaccinated so far:






						COVID Data Tracker
					

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.



					covid.cdc.gov
				




100 million more orders of the Pfizer vaccine:









						U.S. orders 100 million more Pfizer COVID vaccines, aims for all to get it by June
					

The U.S. has purchased enough doses of coronavirus vaccines to innoculate 200 million people by summer, just shy of the 70 percent needed to achieve herd immunity.




					www.newsweek.com
				




Enough supply for everyone to get it by June. Assume Moderna availability, and Oxford approval and availability, and we really could see a late March/early-April timeframe.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 23, 2020)

socalkdg said:


> Have to believe this will be the last spike.   With vaccine available plus the shear numbers of people that have already got it,  figure it starts to go down by 3rd week in Jan.   Hoping.


Agree. At the very least, the next "spike" will be a small one in terms of cases and even smaller in terms of deaths assuming the vaccines are effective in the older age groups. There's no reason to believe otherwise at this point.

Cases are showing signs of a peak. Unfortunately, three big states - CA, TX and FL are still trending up. That's a lot to overcome nationally. It's looking like a plateau now until those states level off a bit. I'm guessing we start heading down by the end of the first week in January - maybe earlier unless we get some sort of bump at Christmas.


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## Hüsker Dü (Dec 24, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Agree. At the very least, the next "spike" will be a small one in terms of cases and even smaller in terms of deaths assuming the vaccines are effective in the older age groups. There's no reason to believe otherwise at this point.
> 
> Cases are showing signs of a peak. Unfortunately, three big states - CA, TX and FL are still trending up. That's a lot to overcome nationally. It's looking like a plateau now until those states level off a bit. I'm guessing we start heading down by the end of the first week in January - maybe earlier unless we get some sort of bump at Christmas.


The Christmas/New Years surge will come in a couple weeks. It will get much worse before it gets any better.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 24, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The Christmas/New Years surge will come in a couple weeks. It will get much worse before it gets any better.


Much worse? Maybe. Airports had the heaviest travel day of the year yesterday. Based on the graphs of the states, there is little indication that states got much worse after Thanksgiving. In many states, there was a bump up, but the trend after Thanksgiving was pretty consistent with the trend prior to Thanksgiving.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 24, 2020)

Studies suggest 4 vitamins to lower risk of severe cases of COVID-19
					

Dr. Peter Osborne offers advice on how to take in the vitamins you need to help fight and prevent COVID-19.




					www.foxla.com


----------



## dean (Jan 13, 2021)

Not sure where to put this. But it didn't read like Bad News.

https://news.emory.edu/stories/2021/01/coronavirus_endemic_future/index.html


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 13, 2021)

dean said:


> Not sure where to put this. But it didn't read like Bad News.
> 
> https://news.emory.edu/stories/2021/01/coronavirus_endemic_future/index.html


Definitely good news, @dean. Thanks for sharing. We have had a dearth of good news lately.


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## kickingandscreaming (Jan 21, 2021)

Ok, my "Good News" is really just a different perspective that we don't typically see in the news. It's also something @Desert Hound posted a while back. While the vaccine rollout is going slower than desired, the effect on the rate of death will happen quickly where states focus on vaccinating the older population. This "surge" already appears to be well past the apex for infections and even for deaths/day. Add that to a significant proportion of the older population already getting vaccines and we are headed in the right direction quickly.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ok, my "Good News" is really just a different perspective that we don't typically see in the news. It's also something @Desert Hound posted a while back. While the vaccine rollout is going slower than desired, the effect on the rate of death will happen quickly where states focus on vaccinating the older population. This "surge" already appears to be well past the apex for infections and even for deaths/day. Add that to a significant proportion of the older population already getting vaccines and we are headed in the right direction quickly.
> 
> View attachment 9984


Think you are right.  The IFR is going to drop to the equivalent of a bad flu season within a couple months even with some states like CA and NY dragging its feet with the elderly.  

On the other side of the ledger though you have a system which is entirely built into cases (though the WHO might help with that with the new advice that just came out), kids vaccines no where on the horizon, mass vaccination of the non-elderly held up until we get either the AZ or JJ vaccines approved, a Biden task force heavily focused on prolockdowners, and health advisers that want to be masked up and restricted until 2022 at the earliest.  Also, because those children vaccines won't be here any time soon, and because the "experimental" label won't be removed from the vaccine any time soon, the COVID cases aren't disappearing any time soon (they'll floor over the summer and then we'll experience outbreaks in the fall/winter again).

The actual emergency will be all but over in the next 2-3 months.  From there on out everything is just plain political.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> While the vaccine rollout is going slower than desired, the effect on the rate of death will happen quickly where states focus on vaccinating the older population


This needs to happen nationwide. Focus on the actual at risk people first.

The elderly account for 70-80% of all the deaths. Take care of them, and this thing will be over effectively speaking.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Think you are right.  The IFR is going to drop to the equivalent of a bad flu season within a couple months even with some states like CA and NY dragging its feet with the elderly.
> 
> On the other side of the ledger though you have a system which is entirely built into cases (though the WHO might help with that with the new advice that just came out), kids vaccines no where on the horizon, mass vaccination of the non-elderly held up until we get either the AZ or JJ vaccines approved, a Biden task force heavily focused on prolockdowners, and health advisers that want to be masked up and restricted until 2022 at the earliest.  Also, because those children vaccines won't be here any time soon, and because the "experimental" label won't be removed from the vaccine any time soon, the COVID cases aren't disappearing any time soon (they'll floor over the summer and then we'll experience outbreaks in the fall/winter again).
> 
> The actual emergency will be all but over in the next 2-3 months.  From there on out everything is just plain political.


Yes. States like FL and TX will be back to near normal in no time, but CA? I think it will be a while.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This needs to happen nationwide. Focus on the actual at risk people first.
> 
> The elderly account for 70-80% of all the deaths. Take care of them, and this thing will be over effectively speaking.


I remember the "bad press" FL got for having long lines of old folks to get the vaccine. Looks like we'd be better off in CA if we'd have done the same.


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## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Yes. States like FL and TX will be back to near normal in no time, but CA? I think it will be a while.


This is largely due to politics, though....not the vaccine.  Florida is pretty much back to semi-normal anyway...the step to near normal is short for them....California has a long way to go before we even get to semi-normal, and from the look of the city these days it might be years before we achieve pre-pandemic normality, if ever.  I also point out that all this self-flagellation has gotten us pretty much bubkis....despite mask mandates, curfews, lockdowns, no outdoor dining, and kids out of school, we still for a period of time have had a worst-in-the-country outbreak.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is largely due to politics, though....not the vaccine.  Florida is pretty much back to semi-normal anyway...the step to near normal is short for them....California has a long way to go before we even get to semi-normal, and from the look of the city these days it might be years before we achieve pre-pandemic normality, if ever.  I also point out that all this self-flagellation has gotten us pretty much bubkis....despite mask mandates, curfews, lockdowns, no outdoor dining, and kids out of school, we still for a period of time have had a worst-in-the-country outbreak.


Further to this, the attached article is way over the top but it hit on a core truth.  And if we did this for COVID, what's going to happen the next time we get a new bad flu strain.  The emergency will be over in a couple months...100 days max.  The question then is do we reject the ideology of destruction, or do we let it rule our lives forever more. That's political.









						Lockdown: The New Totalitarianism
					

"The lockdowns are looking less like a gigantic error and more like the unfolding of a fanatical political ideology and policy experiment that attacks core postulates of civilization at their very root. It’s time we take it seriously and combat it with the same fervor with which a free people...




					www.aier.org


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## socalkdg (Jan 21, 2021)

I'm thinking we can reopen everything by May, with cases dropping dramatically by end of March.    US has administered 18.4 million doses. Biden plans on another 100 million in the next 100 days. Kids under 16 don't get the shot, that is another 70 million. Another 25 million already had covid(this number is probably much greater). 1/4 the population will choose not to get the shot. 80 million. Add it all up and we have close to 300 million by end of April.

Since this is good news, my dad and stepmom had their first shots last week, my mom gets hers this Saturday.   In-laws shortly.   They are all in the 75+ category.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

socalkdg said:


> I'm thinking we can reopen everything by May, with cases dropping dramatically by end of March.    US has administered 18.4 million doses. Biden plans on another 100 million in the next 100 days. Kids under 16 don't get the shot, that is another 70 million. Another 25 million already had covid(this number is probably much greater). 1/4 the population will choose not to get the shot. 80 million. Add it all up and we have close to 300 million by end of April.
> 
> Since this is good news, my dad and stepmom had their first shots last week, my mom gets hers this Saturday.   In-laws shortly.   They are all in the 75+ category.


Great news for your folks!  My folks got theirs last week too (MDs).  

Here's some other real good news.  Am hearing from my pharma friend they expect the J&J EU authorization in the next 2-3 weeks.

I agree both cases and deaths will drop dramatically by March (in part because of seasonality and in part because of the vaccine and as dad points out in part because so many people have had it).  Your math though isn't 100% correct.  The kids under 16 and the 1/4 who have chosen not to get the shot don't really count since they will be still spreading COVID among themselves.  The people who have already had it also may or may not count (because they are vaccinating them anyway, which is dumb, there's some overlap with the vaccinated...some of them also fall in the kid category).  Then there's the issue of length of immunity/mutations...my son had it back in March....does he count?....we don't have a firm idea yet.  Finally, it takes 2 shots to make that fully effective and those need to be spread more than a month so we aren't reaching (even with the J&J vaccine which is easier to admin) max voluntary immunity among those authorized until May (though someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think J&J is 1 dose)

But ultimately for California the issue is going to be that we are still going to have cases over March.  Not a ton of them like we do now but enough that it will disrupt life.  If you get a COVID positive kid, your school and your sports teams are still going to be shut down.  If you get one at work, they'll still make everyone test (including stupidly those that have had the 2nd dose of the vaccine).  They'll still be the horror stories of the 40 year old struck down in the prime of life.  The teachers unions are setting it up that schools can't be fully reopened until the kids are vaccinated (which for under 12 isn't looking until 2022 and which won't be mandated until the EU label is removed). California will still force you to wear a mask.  Disneyland will still be closed (prob summer) and mass sporting event with spectators not allowed.  No tournaments or away camps this summer. 
 The case levels are sensitive enough that it's really really very hard to get to orange and yellow zones and remember there's still no green.  In some low pop counties a handful of cases are enough to kick you into the orange.

"Open" everything is therefore a political question.  It won't happen as long as Newsom and his team doesn't change his thinking and the standards are still geared to cases.  If you live in Texas and Florida, yes absolutely.


----------



## crush (Jan 23, 2021)

Good news everyone.  OC is now down to 500 new cases.  The WHO just admitted their testing *grossly* overstates individuals for testing positive for the Rona and* grossly* overstates mortality rate. Oh my and oh dear all in one  I read the news this morning and it looks like places in NY, Chicago are going to open for business. I'm sure by March 4th all will be well. Let's just go back to "*the way we were*."  Maybe we should just pick up where we left off 3/11/20 and just pretend nothing just happen right in front of our eyes and ears?  Nothing really happen and this was just one insane long acid trip or some like to say, "A journey of a lifetime."  I've learned so much about myself and want I really want on this planet.


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## kickingandscreaming (Jan 24, 2021)

Definitely good news here. CA 7-day average is down almost 1/3 in 9 days.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 24, 2021)

The J&J vaccine is a game-changer. One dose AND it can be stored in refrigerators. I feel like we should use this vaccine as a completely separate "prong" in the attack. Take it to the high infection rate communities that are also invariably underserved as far as getting the vaccine. Set up in the community center and vaccinate anyone willing to come in. Don't make them sign up online. Bring ID for tracking and get the shots in the arms ASAP. Looks like it will be another 2 months, though.

*








						More vaccines could be coming soon and they could be a big boost to the rollout
					

States may be scrambling for vaccines now, but the United States could see additional Covid-19 vaccines by the end of March, if not sooner.




					www.cnn.com
				



*


----------



## socalkdg (Jan 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you get one at work, they'll still make everyone test (including stupidly those that have had the 2nd dose of the vaccine).


OSHA requires 3 positives in the same work area in a two week period to make the whole company tst..   We have had about 20 positive over the last 9 months. We quarantine anyone that was close to the person that got sick.

Looks like our Governor is on our side again.









						California Governor Gavin Newsom expected to lift strict stay-at-home orders, sources say
					

California restaurant owners are "optimistic" that they will be able to resume outdoor dining by end of the week.




					abc7.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Definitely good news here. CA 7-day average is down almost 1/3 in 9 days.
> View attachment 9996


Listening to abc news this morning, I thought there was a new deadlier version of the virus already circulating in California and we are all doomed so how is this possible?


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## kickingandscreaming (Jan 29, 2021)

One shot - normal refrigeration. Get this into the areas where the virus is spreading fastest, ASAP. Do walk-ups/drives-ups by age with ID so we can get to those that aren't internet savvy.









						Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine is 66% effective in global trial, but 85% effective against severe disease, company says
					

Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 single-shot vaccine was shown to be 66% effective in preventing moderate and severe disease in a global Phase 3 trial, but 85% effective against severe disease, the company announced Friday.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 29, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> One shot - normal refrigeration. Get this into the areas where the virus is spreading fastest, ASAP. Do walk-ups/drives-ups by age with ID so we can get to those that aren't internet savvy.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





kickingandscreaming said:


> One shot - normal refrigeration. Get this into the areas where the virus is spreading fastest, ASAP. Do walk-ups/drives-ups by age with ID so we can get to those that aren't internet savvy.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I would totally take the j&j vaccine now but would want to continue to wait at least a year to take the mRNA vaccine and would not for years give the mRNA vaccine to the kids. I probably would want my folks though given their age to get the mRNA vaccines (they’ve had first dose moderna)

im already seeing the chicken little crowd on Twitter saying 60%+ is not enough for such a risky virus with unknown long term side effects and all these scary variants.  My panicky in laws say no way Jose. The wife of my sons godfather, an lausd teacher, says the jj vaccine not good enough for teachers since they’ll bring it home from the classroom

if we weren’t in such a complete insane irrational panic, the jj vaccine should be prioritized for essential workers in hard hit community and the mRNA vaccines for the elderly and those with severe conditions (downs or uncontrolled diabetes not asthma or being overweight).  It’s most likely by the end of this at least 1/2 of us are going to get it....if the thing mutates away from full protection most likely way more...you can’t avoid it forever so whip away the jj shot.  Doing this would make things easier to mass vaccinate too since single dose less refrig. But they’ll just say we are fing essential workers for the rich white elderly


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## kickingandscreaming (Feb 5, 2021)

This is good news - rate is down about 2/3 from a high point 3 weeks ago. Hospitalizations are coming down quickly as well.


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## kickingandscreaming (Feb 6, 2021)

Colorado offers an interesting "middle" between CA and TX/FL/AZ. My interpretation of the restrictions is: CA > CO > AZ > TX > FL. But it feels like the "distance" between AZ and FL is much less than the distance between CA and CO. I found the story below regarding how CO plans to move forward. In CO, they are talking about the virus exist strategy and are even willing to talk about living normally as early as May-June if you are vaccinated. I just don't see this conversation getting off the ground in CA.

*Polis said, adding he hopes the state can achieve a 60-70% vaccination rate by May, June or July. At that point, he said, “it certainly means that for those who’ve been vaccinated … they can generally live the same way they’ve lived in years past.”*

Then there are the risk assessment considerations below. Again, I don't see this type of decision making happening in CA. In CA all "risk assessment" is tied to the number of infections. Philosophically, it is a very different approach.

*“The question of whether it’s the right time — well, that’s how much risk we want to take,” said Jon Samet, dean at The Colorado School of Public Health and a state adviser on pandemic modeling. “With the pandemic going down in the state, and vaccinations going up, it’s not the wrong time. I’ll put it that way.”*

****
****
****

COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS

State takes first step in virus exit strategy

Restaurants, bars, gyms, offices will move to 50% capacity as Colorado loosens curbs

By Alex Burness

The Denver Post

Most Colorado counties will see more people allowed in restaurants, bars, gyms, offices and event spaces starting at 9 a.m. Saturday.

It’s the first step in the state’s broader COVID-19 exit strategy, one in which Gov. Jared Polis envisions Coloradans returning to nightclubs and sports stadiums as soon as May. He and public health officials hope that by the fall, people will be able to gather indoors with large groups in much the way they did before the pandemic.

Polis announced new details Friday afternoon about the state’s plans to loosen restrictions gradually, and promised more to come. His move comes as the virus is still spreading widely, with about four times as many cases as Colorado saw during the summer.

Every county in every corner of the state still will have to follow Colorado’s colorcoded restriction dial, but the new version — “Dial 2.0” — significantly lowers the threshold of COVID-19 cases that must be met to restore personal freedoms and full business activities.

The softening begins at 9 a.m. Saturday, when the most populous counties — including Denver, Larimer, El Paso, Adams, Douglas, Jefferson, Boulder and Arapahoe — move to Level Yellow, down from Orange,

which opens up capacity to 50% or 100 people indoors. And 22 of the state’s 64 counties will have even fewer restrictions under Level Blue (175 people indoors).

The new dial, Polis told The Post, will be more nimble “to allow for more normalcy” — or less, if case rates move in the wrong direction.

“Every day I wake up asking myself, ‘Can we get rid of the dial?’ I think the answer is still overwhelmingly no,” *Polis said, adding he hopes the state can achieve a 60-70% vaccination rate by May, June or July. At that point, he said, “it certainly means that for those who’ve been vaccinated … they can generally live the same way they’ve lived in years past.”*

If all goes well, there will be another, more-lenient update to the dial in the next couple months. But that’s a big “if,” given that fewer than 2% of all Coloradans have received both vaccine doses and there are new virus variants making the rounds.

Colorado is somewhat containing the virus — as of this week it had the eighthfewest new virus cases among states, adjusted for population — resulting in lower hospitalizations and deaths. But the statewide case count on average is approximately twice as high as when Polis issued a statewide stay-at-home order in the spring (partly a reflection of increased testing capacity).

Plus there’s concern, particularly for and among low-income people and people of color, that Polis is moving too quickly toward a greater normalcy.

*“The question of whether it’s the right time — well, that’s how much risk we want to take,” said Jon Samet, dean at The Colorado School of Public Health and a state adviser on pandemic modeling. “With the pandemic going down in the state, and vaccinations going up, it’s not the wrong time. I’ll put it that way.”*


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## kickingandscreaming (Feb 12, 2021)

I feel like this is good news (taken from NY Times), although I am not sure about how children are included/excluded given we don't have a vaccine that is approved for children. With any luck, the J&J will work for them and we can get that out soon. I think we saturate adults interested in having the vaccine before July, with the bit of accelerration we are seeing and the J&J vaccine coming out in a couple of weeks.




​


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## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I feel like this is good news (taken from NY Times), although I am not sure about how children are included/excluded given we don't have a vaccine that is approved for children. With any luck, the J&J will work for them and we can get that out soon. I think we saturate adults interested in having the vaccine before July, with the bit of accelerration we are seeing and the J&J vaccine coming out in a couple of weeks.
> 
> View attachment 10085
> 
> ...


The problem with the j&j vaccine is the much lower efficiency.  Some people won’t want to take it because of that particularly once the scare of the South Africa variant hits the mainstream. Biden admin just bought a new round of mRNA vaccine so they seem to be leaning more heavily towards that which means a slower roll out due to handling requirements unlike the j&j which could be rolled out to every cvs across the country


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## kickingandscreaming (Feb 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem with the j&j vaccine is the much lower efficiency.  Some people won’t want to take it because of that particularly once the scare of the South Africa variant hits the mainstream. Biden admin just bought a new round of mRNA vaccine so they seem to be leaning more heavily towards that which means a slower roll out due to handling requirements unlike the j&j which could be rolled out to every cvs across the country


Why not have a completely separate effort with younger "spreaders" with the J&J vaccine, then - assuming we have enough resources to do so without slowing down the mRNA vaccination effort. Any slowing of the spread reduces the chances of mutations, correct?


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## kickingandscreaming (Feb 14, 2021)

This thing was pretty much all red two weeks ago.


----------



## N00B (Feb 14, 2021)

Plenty of new treatment options seem to be reducing negative outcomes.  I’ve seen several news stories recently that haven’t made the good news thread.  If we’re moving from pandemic to endemic, these stories are the real ‘good news’.


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## kickingandscreaming (Feb 14, 2021)

N00B said:


> Plenty of new treatment options seem to be reducing negative outcomes.  I’ve seen several news stories recently that haven’t made the good news thread.  If we’re moving from pandemic to endemic, these stories are the real ‘good news’.


Improved treatment options are a big deal. I haven't seen/heard much of any of it recently. Please post any you have seen.


----------



## N00B (Feb 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Improved treatment options are a big deal. I haven't seen/heard much of any of it recently. Please post any you have seen.











						Rheumatoid arthritis drug reduces risk of death for severely ill hospitalized Covid-19 patients, researchers say
					

Tocilizumab, an intravenous anti-inflammatory drug used for rheumatoid arthritis, has been shown to reduce the risk of death for patients hospitalized with severe Covid-19, as well as reducing the risk of ventilation and the amount of time until discharged from hospital.




					www.google.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Improved treatment options are a big deal. I haven't seen/heard much of any of it recently. Please post any you have seen.


Part of the issue is a lot of drugs have been shown to help including hdq and invermectin (sp?) but they don’t have eu authorization due to politics and fda limitations. So you have to rely on doctors working off script. I don’t know which drugs have gotten the eu authorization (if someone knows please post) but it’s supposedly a lot less than the known treatmdnts that work


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## espola (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Part of the issue is a lot of drugs have been shown to help including hdq and invermectin (sp?) but they don’t have eu authorization due to politics and fda limitations. So you have to rely on doctors working off script. I don’t know which drugs have gotten the eu authorization (if someone knows please post) but it’s supposedly a lot less than the known treatmdnts that work


If by "hdq" you mean hydroxychloroquine,  it's not politics that holds back approval..  It is a lack of demonstrated benefit.


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## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

espola said:


> If by "hdq" you mean hydroxychloroquine,  it's not politics that holds back approval..  It is a lack of demonstrated benefit.


Don’t have the time right now to look it up for you but there have been several studies now that show some mild-moderate benefits if admined early


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## espola (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Don’t have the time right now to look it up for you but there have been several studies now that show some mild-moderate benefits if admined early


"Hydroxychloroquine did not substantially reduce symptom severity in outpatients with early, mild COVID-19."









						Hydroxychloroquine in Nonhospitalized Adults With Early COVID-19: A Randomized Trial: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 173, No 8
					

Background: No effective oral therapy exists for early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Objective: To investigate whether hydroxychloroquine could reduce COVID-19 severity in adult outpatients. Design: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted from 22 March through 20 May...



					www.acpjournals.org


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## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

Here's a good summary of why there aren't a whole lot of good therapeutics (and unlikely to be a whole lot more in the near future).  Part of it is the very high threshold for testing set out by the FDA.  Part of it too is just Fauci...he made the decision early on to go all in on the vaccines (which is now coming back to bite all of us in the ass since the vaccines are not 100% effective).  Without doing a deep dive onto Fauci, It's hard to speculate the reasons why.









						Where Are the Therapeutics to Combat COVID-19?
					

Scientists and policy makers are looking more sharply at the lag in identifying and producing medicines to moderate early infections and to treat seriously ill patients.



					www.biopharminternational.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

espola said:


> "Hydroxychloroquine did not substantially reduce symptom severity in outpatients with early, mild COVID-19."
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah there are some contra too.  Regardless, I agree it isn't a magic bullet.  I agree the evidence is in dispute and there's more contra than pro.









						Hydroxychloroquine may have some use to treat COVID after all, NJ study shows
					

A study by Hackensack Meridian Health shows the controversial anti-inflammatory drug may help people with mild COVID symptoms.



					www.northjersey.com


----------



## espola (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah there are some contra too.  Regardless, I agree it isn't a magic bullet.  I agree the evidence is in dispute and there's more contra than pro.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


From that article-- "It was widely used in hospitals during a time of unprecedented desperation, a practice that stopped after some studies found no clinical benefit for seriously ill patients."


----------



## espola (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Here's a good summary of why there aren't a whole lot of good therapeutics (and unlikely to be a whole lot more in the near future).  Part of it is the very high threshold for testing set out by the FDA.  Part of it too is just Fauci...he made the decision early on to go all in on the vaccines (which is now coming back to bite all of us in the ass since the vaccines are not 100% effective).  Without doing a deep dive onto Fauci, It's hard to speculate the reasons why.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You're wrong about Fauci.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

espola said:


> You're wrong about Fauci.


Nah he’s a moron in love with his own farts and selfish importance, a political hack, a hypocrite when it comes to his own restrictions and he’s been more wrong than right.


----------



## espola (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nah he’s a moron in love with his own farts and selfish importance, a political hack, a hypocrite when it comes to his own restrictions and he’s been more wrong than right.


Thank you for providing confirmation of my statement.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

espola said:


> Thank you for providing confirmation of my statement.


It’s what he is


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Fauci Awarded $1 Million Israeli Prize For 'Speaking Truth To Power' Amid Pandemic
					

The prize committee said Dr. Anthony Fauci, long-time head of the United States' leading infectious diseases research institute, "is the consummate model of leadership and impact in public health."




					www.npr.org


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Feb 16, 2021)

GrapeNuts cereal is back on the shelves. Post completely stopped producing it because it’s a tedious process and needed to catch up on its other products. Yum!


----------



## espola (Feb 16, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> GrapeNuts cereal is back on the shelves. Post completely stopped producing it because it’s a tedious process and needed to catch up on its other products. Yum!


What's the deal with Grapenuts?  No grapes, no nuts.

-- Jerry Seinfeld (??)


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Feb 16, 2021)

espola said:


> What's the deal with Grapenuts?  No grapes, no nuts.
> 
> -- Jerry Seinfeld (??)


You mean like why dogs have no money. Because they don’t have pockets.


----------



## N00B (Feb 23, 2021)

Heard on the grapevine (not grapenuts) that Pfizer has a pending announcement.  My guess is that it relates to the vaccine preventing transmission, which would bode well for a return to normalcy.


----------



## N00B (Feb 23, 2021)

The growing evidence that the Covid-19 vaccines can reduce transmission, explained — Vox
					

Here’s what we know about how the vaccines protect against spread of the virus.




					apple.news


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 24, 2021)

When the NY Times is talking about "Normalcy" as soon as this summer, that's good news.


*Not zero, but normalcy*​

Covid is caused by a coronavirus — known as SARS-CoV-2 — and coronaviruses often circulate for years, causing respiratory infections and the common cold. The world is not going to extinguish coronaviruses anytime soon, nor will it extinguish this specific one. “The coronavirus is here to stay,” as a recent article in the science journal Nature, by Nicky Phillips, concluded.​

The reasonable goal is to make it manageable, much like the seasonal flu. Fortunately, the vaccines are doing that. In fact, they’re doing better than that. For fully vaccinated people, serious illness from Covid is extremely rare, much rarer than serious illness from the seasonal flu.​

Israel, the country that has vaccinated the largest share of its population, offers a case study. One recent analysis looked at 602,000 Israelis who had received Covid vaccines and found that only 21 later contracted the virus and had to be hospitalized. Twenty-one is obviously not zero. Vaccines are almost never perfect. But the Covid vaccines are turning it into the sort of risk that people accept every day.​

Here’s a useful way to think about Israel’s numbers: Only 3.5 out of every 100,000 people vaccinated there were later hospitalized with Covid symptoms. During a typical flu season in the U.S., by comparison, roughly 150 out of every 100,000 people are hospitalized with flu symptoms.​

And yet the seasonal flu does not grind life to a halt. It does not keep people from flying on airplanes, eating in restaurants, visiting their friends or going to school and work.​

The vaccines will not produce “Covid zero.” But they are on pace — eventually, and perhaps even by summer — to produce something that looks a lot like normalcy. The rare exceptions won’t change that, no matter how much attention they receive.​


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 1, 2021)

Good news....more Union hypocrisy is getting called out:









						After Leading School Closures, Berkeley Teachers Union President Spotted Dropping Daughter Off at In-Person Preschool | KQED
					

Parents shoot video of Matt Meyer, president of the Berkeley Federation of Teachers, dropping his 2-year-old off for in-person instruction even as he fights against in-person instruction for Berkeley public school teachers until they are all vaccinated, which the parents' groups view as hypocrisy.




					www.kqed.org


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Good news....more Union hypocrisy is getting called out:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Now if the voters could actually put 1+1 together and vote accordingly.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 2, 2021)

AZ now vaccinating 55 and older. That's impressive. Over 80% of deaths have come from 65 and over (nationwide). By the time AZ gets done with 55 and over they will have covered the age groups that represent over 90% of their COVID deaths.





__





						COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
					

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities.  Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.




					www.cdc.gov
				












						Arizona opens vaccinations at 2 of its state-run sites to people 55 and older
					

Arizona on Monday announced two of its state-run vaccination sites will now be open to anyone 55 years of age and older.



					www.azcentral.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 2, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> AZ now vaccinating 55 and older. That's impressive. Over 80% of deaths have come from 65 and over (nationwide). By the time AZ gets done with 55 and over they will have covered the age groups that represent over 90% of their COVID deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Crazy right? 

Vaccinate the age groups at risk.

Some states focus on fluff...equity and other crap that has the end result of delaying the vaccination of people who actually need it most.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 3, 2021)

Enough vaccine for all US adults by May 31. Amazing. That's about 14-15 months from starting the vaccine process.









						Covid-19: Biden Says Vaccine Doses Could Be Available for All Adult Americans by End of May (Published 2021)
					

Merck will help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The governor of Texas says the state can reopen fully next week despite C.D.C. warnings to governors against easing restrictions yet.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## crush (Mar 3, 2021)




----------



## crush (Mar 3, 2021)




----------



## crush (Mar 6, 2021)

*Disneyland, Universal and other California theme parks can reopen April 1

Dodger Stadium, Angel Stadium will begin 2021 season with fans in the stands April 1*


April Fools joke or is this for reals?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 6, 2021)

crush said:


> *Disneyland, Universal and other California theme parks can reopen April 1
> 
> Dodger Stadium, Angel Stadium will begin 2021 season with fans in the stands April 1*
> 
> ...


Was "science" recalled?


----------



## crush (Mar 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Was "science" recalled?


I just heard the following radio commercial.  Please, do your part California residents and obey us.

1. Wear a Mask ((STFU))
2. Wash your Hands ((Loser has dirty hands))
3. Social Distance ((Not good enough to be next to me))
4. Vaccine ((Do as I say or else))

If you do all this, we can be friends they say.  If you disobey, good luck finding work loser.  We know what's best for you.  Plus, if you voted (R), then it's all your fault anyways.  We had to do what we had to do to get what we want.


----------



## espola (Mar 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Was "science" recalled?


"Angel Stadium and Dodger Stadium will be able to admit up to 100 fans for their first regular-season games. "


----------



## crush (Mar 6, 2021)

espola said:


> "Angel Stadium and Dodger Stadium will be able to admit up to 100 fans for their first regular-season games. "


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 6, 2021)

crush said:


> I just heard the following radio commercial.  Please, do your part California residents and obey us.
> 
> 1. Wear a Mask ((STFU))
> 2. Wash your Hands ((Loser has dirty hands))
> ...


Yesterday in the car I heard an ad put out by some federal agency.  It was between a Native American grandmother and her granddaughter talking about why they couldn’t do their annual pow wow. Gd asks gm why if gm is already vaccinated. Gm explains lots of younger people not vaccinated and even vaccinated people need to be socially distanced.  Its real b lev government propaganda right there. I was actually surprised to hear something that bad that hit all the stereotypes.  Even in wwii the govt did better.


----------



## crush (Mar 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yesterday in the car I heard an ad put out by some federal agency.  It was between a Native American grandmother and her granddaughter talking about why they couldn’t do their annual pow wow. Gd asks gm why if gm is already vaccinated. Gm explains lots of younger people not vaccinated and even vaccinated people need to be socially distanced.  Its real b lev government propaganda right there. I was actually surprised to hear something that bad that hit all the stereotypes.  Even in wwii the govt did better.


Well, my wife facetime her friend Anna yesterday to share with her what the ocean looks like with a sunset.  Anna is so freaking scared and has not left her house in months.  She now wears two mask in the house and has already got vaccine. Her hubby is a Dentist and she had to get it so he could still have a job at Eastern Dental.  No shot, no job from what I hear. She thinks my wife and I are irresponsible because we dont wear a mask at the beach or wash our hands.


----------



## espola (Mar 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yesterday in the car I heard an ad put out by some federal agency.  It was between a Native American grandmother and her granddaughter talking about why they couldn’t do their annual pow wow. Gd asks gm why if gm is already vaccinated. Gm explains lots of younger people not vaccinated and even vaccinated people need to be socially distanced.  Its real b lev government propaganda right there. I was actually surprised to hear something that bad that hit all the stereotypes.  Even in wwii the govt did better.


Didn't know you were that old.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Crazy right?
> 
> Vaccinate the age groups at risk.
> 
> Some states focus on fluff...equity and other crap that has the end result of delaying the vaccination of people who actually need it most.


Meanwhile la county vaccinating teachers and their spouses even though the teachers are refusing to go back for the remainder of the year.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 6, 2021)

This is good news.









						Amount of people hesitant to get Covid-19 vaccine dropping rapidly
					

The release of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine and its partnership with Merck means that President Joe Biden expects the US to have enough Covid-19 vaccines delivered to cover every adult by the end of May.




					www.cnn.com
				




*Amount of people hesitant to get Covid-19 vaccine dropping rapidly*

While the percentage of hardline "get it only if required" or "definitely not" has remained fairly consistent at or just north of 20%, the hesitant population of "wait and see how it's working" has dropped by nearly half during the last two months from 39% to 22%.

Axios/Ipsos polling shows a similar trendline. A mere 13% of adults said in September they would get a Covid-19 vaccine as soon as it was made available to them. That jumped to 27% in early December to 43% in early January. Now, 57% say they have already received the vaccine or will get it as soon as possible.


----------



## Glitterhater (Mar 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This is good news.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is good news. Of course they'll still be those individuals who cry that they don't want "bat shit" injected into them. And, that's fine- they'll be enough who do so they won't really matter.


----------



## crush (Mar 6, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> This is good news. Of course they'll still be those individuals who cry that they don't want "bat shit" injected into them. And, that's fine- they'll be enough who do so they won't really matter.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 6, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> This is good news. Of course they'll still be those individuals who cry that they don't want "bat shit" injected into them. And, that's fine- they'll be enough who do so they won't really matter.


Agree. Also, whatever happened to personal responsibility? If someone doesn't want it, why should I get all bent out of shape over it? I'll get it as soon as I "qualify". Once everyone has had the opportunity to get shot, it's time to move on with life. I believe history has shown us often enough how bad things get when those in power have the ability to do force people to do "what is best for them".


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Great news for your folks!  My folks got theirs last week too (MDs).
> 
> Here's some other real good news.  Am hearing from my pharma friend they expect the J&J EU authorization in the next 2-3 weeks.
> 
> ...


My MIL got her 2nd Moderna shot today. She was very reluctant at first, despite my best efforts to explain the process, let her know many thousands (and now millions) have been vaccinated safely and, the biggest obstacle, that Trump couldn't make them put out a vaccine that wasn't safe. However, it took grandma's "Number one" - her only grandchild - to convince her. About 6 weeks ago "Number one" told her that she asked her Life Group at church to pray that her grandma will take the vaccine. Within days, grandma had her appointment and had her first shot less than two weeks later.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 8, 2021)

This could be a big deal.









						New COVID-19 treatment ‘showing it gets rid of virus completely’ in trials: Dr. Siegel
					

Dr. Marc Siegel says a new experimental pill developed to treat COVID-19 could be the “holy grail of therapeutics” used against the virus. First-stage testing of Molnupiravir, developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, showed promising signs of effectiveness in reducing the virus in patients.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> My MIL got her 2nd Moderna shot today. She was very reluctant at first, despite my best efforts to explain the process, let her know many thousands (and now millions) have been vaccinated safely and, the biggest obstacle, that Trump couldn't make them put out a vaccine that wasn't safe. However, it took grandma's "Number one" - her only grandchild - to convince her. About 6 weeks ago "Number one" told her that she asked her Life Group at church to pray that her grandma will take the vaccine. Within days, grandma had her appointment and had her first shot less than two weeks later.


Have you read the trials?  And the vaccine inserts?  And why the EAU?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This could be a big deal.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Big Pharma hitchhiking.   Smh.  C'mon MAN!!!!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 9, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Good news....more Union hypocrisy is getting called out:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


More "Good" News









						LA teachers warned to not share vacation pics as union seeks safe return to classrooms: report
					

UTLA teachers have been warned not to post vacation pictures on social media as the union continues to seek a safe return to in-person instruction amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to a report Monday.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 10, 2021)

Hospitalizations with Covid are at the lowest levels since October 11 (actual, not 7-day average). I'd guess that within about 10 days we'll be at the lowest levels we've been since early April.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 10, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This could be a big deal.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


First consider the source of this info.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> First consider the source of this info.


How’s this source....,









						Early Success Of Pill That Fights Covid Sparks Excitement
					

A new antiviral drug called molnupiravir has shown great success in treating covid patients, researchers say. Other scientists continue to investigate the virus, its symptoms and side effects, incl…




					khn.org


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

Pfizer Vaccine Found to be Highly Effective Against Coronavirus Variants
					

There's all sorts of good news on the vaccine front. The rollout of the Johnson & Johnson COVID vaccine has been relatively smooth




					pjmedia.com


----------



## crush (Mar 13, 2021)

*Red tier happens Sunday: Orange County businesses prep indoor spaces as pandemic rules are set to be relaxed*

I sure hope so.  I hope the rule enforcers could relax as well.  Some people think they are the one's to go tell people want to do and make sure they obey.  Relax and calm the heck down.  Good News is the Winter of Darkness is over next week.  Plus, we Spring Forward and have more play time on earth.  Yay!!!!!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 13, 2021)

Over 4.5 million shots were reported today - about (1 and 1/3) % of the population. The US at 21% vaccinated (without @crush, who is on an anti-virus diet). We are approaching 50% seroprevalence. Cases are still trending slightly down. I can get vaccinated in 6 days, and I'm looking forward to not cringing every time I hear someone sneeze or cough. I mean, I'm looking forward to seeing my Mother-in-law! Just kidding, "grandma." You know I always miss you (truth). Pancakes and margaritas for breakfast are getting closer!


----------



## crush (Mar 13, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Over 4.5 million shots were reported today - about (1 and 1/3) % of the population. The US at 21% vaccinated (without @crush, who is on an anti-virus diet). We are approaching 50% seroprevalence. Cases are still trending slightly down. I can get vaccinated in 6 days, and I'm looking forward to not cringing every time I hear someone sneeze or cough. I mean, I'm looking forward to seeing my Mother-in-law! Just kidding, "grandma." You know I always miss you (truth). Pancakes and margaritas for breakfast are getting closer!
> 
> View attachment 10379


I know we like to have satire because life is too short to be serious all the time, but I just heard a super super sad story bro about a perfectly healthy person dying after her 2nd does of the BG DBL Shot Bat Virus.  People are dying for injecting it. I would not take it but I understand everyone wants to get back to normal and obey Dr F and his crew.  My wife and I already see the writing on the wall in California.  Today, no mask=no service. Tomorrow it will be No Vaccine=No service, no way to work, no way for Thai.  Thank God my kids are adults.  I'm done telling them how to live their life.  Looks like the Mountains far away and live off the land.  Sad times but lessons are always learned the hard way.  I pray all goes well for everyone who wants or feels they have to inject themselves with a man made vaccine because of the Rona made from the man.  Use your brain........


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 13, 2021)

crush said:


> I know we like to have satire because life is too short to be serious all the time, but I just heard a super super sad story bro about a perfectly healthy person dying after her 2nd does of the BG DBL Shot Bat Virus.  People are dying for injecting it. I would not take it but I understand everyone wants to get back to normal and obey Dr F and his crew.  My wife and I already see the writing on the wall in California.  Today, no mask=no service. Tomorrow it will be No Vaccine=No service, no way to work, no way for Thai.  Thank God my kids are adults.  I'm done telling them how to live their life.  Looks like the Mountains far away and live off the land.  Sad times but lessons are always learned the hard way.  I pray all goes well for everyone who wants or feels they have to inject themselves with a man made vaccine because of the Rona made from the man.  Use your brain........


I respect your decision not to get the vaccine. I point it out only because I know you from the board. My choice has zero to do with my opinion of Fauci or anyone really. I feel confident that the vaccine will save many, many more lives than it takes. We'll see. Also, I wouldn't worry too much about being denied service due to not taking the vaccine. There are many health care workers who feel the same way you do, haven't gotten vaccinated when eligible, and are still working. Keep in mind, not getting vaccinated is skewing toward minorities, and I just don't see CA enacting any policies that inordinately restrict minorities.

Better times are ahead Crush, maybe just around the corner.


----------



## crush (Mar 13, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I respect your decision not to get the vaccine. I point it out only because I know you from the board. My choice has zero to do with my opinion of Fauci or anyone really. I feel confident that the vaccine will save many, many more lives than it takes. We'll see. Also, I wouldn't worry too much about being denied service due to not taking the vaccine. There are many health care workers who feel the same way you do, haven't gotten vaccinated when eligible, and are still working. Keep in mind, not getting vaccinated is skewing toward minorities, and I just don't see CA enacting any policies that inordinately restrict minorities.
> 
> Better times are ahead Crush, maybe just around the corner.


I love the positive vibe Kicking and screaming over in Nocal.  I also appreciate the support.  I wish everyone had your attitude.  I hope I will be loved for being anti vaxer dude.  I dont know, I wear my mask below my nose and people go nuts.


----------



## crush (Mar 13, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This could be a big deal.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I like this.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 13, 2021)

crush said:


> I love the positive vibe Kicking and screaming over in Nocal.  I also appreciate the support.  I wish everyone had your attitude.  I hope I will be loved for being anti vaxer dude.  I dont know, I wear my mask below my nose and people go nuts.


I regularly complain about divisiveness, so it is incumbent on me to do a better job of understanding and accepting those with diiferent perspectives.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 21, 2021)

Got my first shot of Pfizer this morning after qualifying for it as of Friday. Part two in 4 weeks. I'm looking forward to a breakfast of pancakes and margaritas with my MIL soon. Oh yeah, I guess it will be nice for her to see her only grandchild for the first time in over a year as well.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 21, 2021)

Some stats on reactions to the Vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer). I like my odds of getting the vaccine vs. not. Beyond my odds, I'm also less likely to pass it on to someone else. That was an important factor for me as well.









						CDC says these are the most common side effects people report after getting Covid vaccine
					

The CDC published new data listing the most common side effects Americans reported after receiving shots of Pfizer's or Moderna's Covid-19 vaccines.




					www.cnbc.com
				




****

The analysis used data from the first month of vaccinations, between Dec. 14 and Jan. 13., when there were more than 13.7 million doses administered.

The CDC said there were 6,994 reports of so-called adverse events after vaccination, including 6,354 that were classified as “non-serious” and 640 as “serious,” which included 113 deaths. The median age of vaccine recipients was 42, according to the VAERS data, and the majority of adverse events occurred in women.

There were 46 reports of anaphylaxis, a severe and potentially life-threatening allergic reaction, from those who received Pfizer’s vaccine and 16 cases for those who received Moderna’s, according to the CDC. The agency said the occurrence of the reaction is in the range of those reported for the influenza vaccine.

****

Of the 113 deaths, 2/3 were from long term facilities

(113 deaths) / (13.7 million doses) = 0.000825% (about 1 in 121,000)

(640 Serious) / (13.7 million doses) = 0.00467% (about 1 in 21,400)


----------



## crush (Mar 21, 2021)

To each his own. I swear I won't share what I know anymore.  My wife and I want to live in peace.  I'm ok with anyone preaching the importance of the double shot of the vaccine.  I will only share that it would be better and best to quit eating red meat, gmo fake food, alcohol and focus on veggies, fruits, nuts and healthy exercise and thee most important all all of this? Lots of sex!!!  I'm living a dream fantasy all in one and it's all real.  It's the only way to live in the future on this planet.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 21, 2021)

crush said:


> To each his own. I swear I won't share what I know anymore.  My wife and I want to live in peace.  I'm ok with anyone preaching the importance of the double shot of the vaccine.  I will only share that it would be better and best to quit eating red meat, gmo fake food, alcohol and focus on veggies, fruits, nuts and healthy exercise and thee most important all all of this? Lots of sex!!!  I'm living a dream fantasy all in one and it's all real.  It's the only way to live in the future on this planet.


I think I'll take the vaccine and stick with the red meat and alcohol - in moderation, of course. Maybe that gets me to "even"? .

Also, I am not a fan of forcing people to do things. I will always support a family's decision regarding the vaccine as a much smaller risk to society than that of allowing our government the power to force people to take it.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 21, 2021)

These two things are very positive in terms of future deaths in the US.

1) We are over two weeks from 55% of seniors getting at least the first shot (3/5/2021).








						Nearly 55 percent of US seniors have gotten at least first COVID-19 shot
					

Nearly 55 percent of Americans age 65 or older have gotten at least one COVID-19 vaccine shot,  the White House said Friday. “Six weeks ago, only 8 percent of seniors — those most vulnerable to COV…




					nypost.com
				




 2) The study in Israel indicated that once half the elderly population reached two weeks from their first shot, the rise among the elderly halted








						Study: Vaccine saved Israel elderly from full force of UK strain in nick of time
					

Research shows extra-infectious virus variant has proven 45% more transmissible in country, but vaccination halted its rise among at-risk populations, saving ‘many’ lives




					www.timesofisrael.com
				




“It’s very clear that at the precise point when the variant (British variant) would have been expected to spread widely among the elderly, given this is what happened in the under-60 age group, vaccines kicked in for many of the most vulnerable,” said Prof. Dan Yamin, head of Tel Aviv University’s Laboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis, one of the authors of the study.

He explained: “Until January 14 we could see there was a very clear trend of rising incidence of the British variant across all age groups. *But as half of the elderly population reached two weeks after their first dose, its rise among the elderly halted — but it continued among others.”*


----------



## crush (Mar 22, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I think I'll take the vaccine and stick with the red meat and alcohol - in moderation, of course. Maybe that gets me to "even"? .
> 
> Also, I am not a fan of forcing people to do things. I will always support a family's decision regarding the vaccine as a much smaller risk to society than that of allowing our government the power to force people to take it.


My wife and I always believe in free choice.  Honesty is the key.  I have great friend who is 100 lbs over weight.  Drinks way too much booze and sleeps with one of those machines every night so he doesn't stop breathing.  He went off on me yesterday for not being responsible and willing to do my part and take the double shot.  I told him if I was living the way you live I would take the shots.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

This is good news.









						U.S. to distribute 11 million Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 shots next week - White House
					

The U.S. government will distribute 11 million doses of Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ.N) COVID-19 vaccine next week in its continued effort to get 200 million shots in people's arms in the first 100 days of President Joe Biden's term, the White House said on Friday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

April looking like a big month for the vaccine.









						US sets new daily record for number of vaccines administered, White House says | CNN
					

A new daily record for administering Covid-19 vaccines was set Friday, but many experts reiterate that the pandemic is far from over.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 4, 2021)

And, again. We get an April of this, and May is going to be looking good.









						US hits 4 million Covid-19 vaccine doses in a day for a new record | CNN
					

More than 4 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine were reported administered in the past 24 hours, setting a new record and bringing the seven-day average to more than 3 million a day, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Saturday.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## crush (Apr 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> And, again. We get an April of this, and May is going to be looking good.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 6, 2021)

Take a look at these two graphs. Deaths peaked (last peak) in January, almost exactly 3 weeks after cases. Cases flattened on Feb 21. We are now over 6 weeks into a rather constant daily number of cases, but deaths continue to drop preciptously. Looks to me like the vaccine is doing it's job.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

As you vaccinate the at risk group(s), covid becomes less and less of a problem.

AZ has about 33% vaccinated at this point. 2.3 million have received at least 1 shot. Almost a million people 65 and over (the at risk group) have had at least one shot.



And here is another graph showing age groups. You will see a high percentage of people over 65 have been vaccinated.

Remember 75% of deaths in AZ are those 65 and over. And as of now about 75% have had at least 1 shot.


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## watfly (Apr 6, 2021)

Have to say I'm pleasantly surprised...not that he hasn't moved goalposts before.  To his credit he has been moving the goalposts closer (under intense pressure) the last couple months.  Curious to see how the teachers unions handle this in September.









						State will fully reopen on June 15
					

Complicated tier system that imposed restrictions will be scrapped




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com


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## crush (May 30, 2021)




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## crush (May 30, 2021)




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## N00B (Jun 2, 2021)

Redirect Notice
		


This sounds like a good use of COVID Relief Funds.


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## crush (Jun 3, 2021)

N00B said:


> Redirect Notice
> 
> 
> 
> This sounds like a good use of COVID Relief Funds.


I love this.  Kids play free and coaches get paid through education funds and exercise funds.  I was going to be a big time PE teacher and coach hoops in HS in early 90s.  However, I met someone who talked me out of it and I'm super glad I bailed on that idea.  Math teacher and Science teacher ((not all)) didnt like PE or sports and felt that PE is waste of time.  30 some years later and I know who has been wasting our time and allowing most of the kids to be obese.  This needs to stop.  Look at most of the teenage boys today.  We should take all video games and phones away during the day.  Day time is outside play time.


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## crush (Jun 4, 2021)

I love OC.  Special props to the City of Irvine.  It was ranked 3rd best city to live in America.


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## crush (Jun 4, 2021)

*If you have high blood pressure and high cholesterol, then try these out.  When I had my triple chin and was living the high life ((so I thought)), I was not healthy but wanted to be.  My wife saved my physical body and I saved my spiritual body and together were one big happy unit of bliss 

P.S.  I weigh 175, yay!!!!!!  *


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## Multi Sport (Jun 8, 2021)

This is great news. I think most people probably already knew this but this is further confirmation..









						No point vaccinating those who’ve had COVID-19: Cleveland Clinic study suggests
					

The study findings reveal that individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection do not get additional benefits from vaccination, indicating that COVID-19 vaccines should be prioritized to individuals without prior infection. The study is currently available on the medRxiv* preprint server.




					www.news-medical.net


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## Multi Sport (Jun 8, 2021)

Definitely good news.









						Mayoral loss in Hispanic-heavy Texas city sets off Dems’ alarms
					

Javier Villalobos' victory in McAllen comes as some Latino Democrats say their party has been ignoring Mexican Americans.




					www.axios.com


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## Hüsker Dü (Jun 10, 2021)

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/06/keystone-xl-pipeline-canceled.html


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## Soccerhelper (Jul 4, 2021)




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## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

*Keep the dream alive!!!!!  Scoreboard!!!!  *​


"I just googled “Canada’s most decorated Olympian” and my name came up. I want to thank that *teacher* in high school who *told me to stop swimming* to *focus on school* bc *swimming wouldn’t get me anywhere.* *This is what dreams are made of.*" Penny from Canada

"Also in reference to my last tweet no shade at all towards teachers in general, my sister is a teacher and I see her inspiring kids everyday.. Most of my teachers saw the vision and pushed me towards it. That one who constantly dragged me down though,, WOAT."  Penny


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## oh canada (Aug 10, 2021)

We can all go to Canada again now!!!  The fishing is better than ever.  Seriously.









						Canada reopens its border for vaccinated US visitors
					

DERBY LINE, Vermont (AP) — Canada lifted its prohibition on Americans crossing the border to shop, vacation or visit on Monday while the United States is maintaining similar restrictions for Canadians, part of a bumpy return to normalcy from COVID-19 travel bans.




					apnews.com


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## Hüsker Dü (Aug 10, 2021)

oh canada said:


> We can all go to Canada again now!!!  The fishing is better than ever.  Seriously.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not “all”, only the vaccinated and those with recent negative Covid tests.


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## crush (Aug 10, 2021)

oh canada said:


> We can all go to Canada again now!!!  The fishing is better than ever.  Seriously.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Wow, no jab, no Canada.  It's a no for me and my family I guess.  My wife and dd went to the World Cup 2015 up in Vancouver.  My wife said it was so beautiful and the people were so nice.  I wanted to go with just my wife some day but I guess were not allowed anymore.  Oh well, enjoy the fishing and make sure to wear a mask too and Oh, make sure to get tested before you come over 3 days before and get all the jabs.  Have fun jabber!!!   

U.S. citizens and legal residents *must be both fully vaccinated and test negative for COVID-19* within *three days to get across one of the world’s longest and busiest land borders*, and Canadian officials warn they won’t sacrifice safety for shorter border waits. Travelers also must fill out a detailed application on the arriveCAN app before crossing.

Or go Spear fishing locally and skip the hassle of crossing the boarder and getting the jab just so you can go fishing in Canada.  Oh joy!


I spear fish in Laguna bro.  I bet most will chill and wait this out, MOO!!


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## crush (Aug 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Not “all”, only the vaccinated and those with recent negative Covid tests.


Wow, first time you told the truth.  Good job Huskey


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## kickingandscreaming (Aug 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/06/keystone-xl-pipeline-canceled.html











						August 10, 2021 Andrew Cuomo news
					

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo just announced his resignation. Follow here for the latest news. Follow here for the latest news.




					www.cnn.com


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## crush (Aug 10, 2021)

Breaking News:  Mike L is projecting that t won AZ by 270,000 votes.  Oh my, could this be true?


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## Hüsker Dü (Aug 10, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> August 10, 2021 Andrew Cuomo news
> 
> 
> New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo just announced his resignation. Follow here for the latest news. Follow here for the latest news.
> ...


And? The battle against male chauvinist pigs continues.


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## crush (Aug 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> And? The battle against male chauvinist pigs continues.


Nursing home deaths is out there too for the x-Gov.  NY led the states in nursing home deaths?  Treating woman like a pig is one thing, sending the flu to the nursing homes is cruel and unusual pain & suffering for our elderly.  Top that with keeping family away so mom or dad died all alone was evil as well.  You guys are having a bad day.  Dude in AZ resigned.  Nancy is now calling Red alert for climate change.  Let me think what is dripping Sherlock.


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## watfly (Aug 10, 2021)

oh canada said:


> We can all go to Canada again now!!!  The fishing is better than ever.  Seriously.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Where are you recommending?  I've only fished the Bow, Crows Nest, Oldman and Elk in Canada.  The the US West has been killed by the drought and many rivers are under "Hoot Owl" restrictions.


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## crush (Aug 12, 2021)




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## crush (Aug 13, 2021)

Good Girl News!!!

I can;t say where but I can say that a tough as nails lady boss took on her evil boss man about the Jab and a few other issues at the ______________________.  She walked away from big bonuses and special trips just for her and her family if she played a long.  I have to be careful with my gossip.  She just walked off the job today and I bet lot's will follow her to the truth.  A true whistleblower that will shine a big fat light on all the liars and cheats in this industry.  Oh my goodness, it's sick & sad as shit you guys.  This is big time news in the industry that is causing all the fear. Horrible people out there you guys.  Protect your loved ones and stay safe and eat healthy and drink water.


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## crush (Aug 13, 2021)

I love this guy


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## crush (Aug 17, 2021)

OC Sheriff’s Department, Fire Authority unions oppose coronavirus vaccine mandate.  *The unions* representing Orange County Sheriff’s Department and Fire Authority personnel are opposed to a coronavirus vaccine mandate for their workers, their leaders announced last week amid a statewide order for health care workers and those who work in high-risk settings to be vaccinated. 
I appreciate the union supporting "choice."  Good job.  I feel super safer.  Marines down south oppose vaccine mandate and my Sherriff's Dept and Fire oppose forced Jab.  Yay!!!!


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## crush (Aug 20, 2021)




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## crush (Aug 23, 2021)

Looks like no concerts for my family at the Segerstrom Performing Art Center.  I saw the Nutcracker with my wife two years ago when everyone had freedom.  My wife just got email notification that if you want to go to a concert, you need Vax Proof.  They say No vax, No entry to our concert hall,  unless you have a very good religious reason not to get jabbed and can prove you don;t have Covid upon entering.  ALL VAXED & RELIGOUS NUT JOBS MUST WEAR A MASK, REGARDLESS.


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## espola (Sep 27, 2021)

A cure?









						A pill to treat Covid-19: 'We're talking about a return to, maybe, normal life' | CNN
					

Antivirals are already essential treatments for other viral infections, including hepatitis C and HIV. One of the best known is Tamiflu, the widely prescribed pill that can shorten the duration of influenza and reduce the risk of hospitalization if given quickly.




					www.cnn.com


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## dad4 (Sep 27, 2021)

crush said:


> Breaking News:  Mike L is projecting that t won AZ by 270,000 votes.  Oh my, could this be true?


Interesting take from Mike L.   What does Chuck D have to say on the topic?


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## crush (Sep 29, 2021)

*Coronavirus: Hospitalizations in Orange County continue to decline, with 235 new cases reported Tuesday*


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## Bruddah IZ (Sep 29, 2021)

*Unvaccinated NBA Players Say Getting the COVID Vaccine Should Be a Personal Choice*

**


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## crush (Oct 13, 2021)




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## crush (Oct 13, 2021)

*More good news.........*



*Federal Judge Issues Major Ruling on Vaccine Mandates, Declares Religious Exemptions Must Be Allowed*

I love God, Jesus and everyone else.  I really love my blood and the line it runs on.  It's very dear to me and precious and my blood is my blood and I will NEVER allow a foreign substance to be injected ((jabbed)) into my arm or ass so IT can flow freely in my blood that goes throughout my body. Hell NO!!!!  Never!!!!  I do NOT want anything impure to enter my blood vessels and that's that.  The rest of you can mine your own business.  Thank you judge for thinking of me and so many others like me.  Praise the Lord


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## crush (Oct 16, 2021)

This is a real man and my new hero.  You go Stu!!!


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## N00B (Oct 20, 2021)

Small victories are still good news.






						San Diego County parks have $1.8M to reimburse youth sports, camp programs
					

San Diego County's Department of Parks and Recreation wants to give youth sports and camp programs shares of $1.8 million to help get 15,000 to 20,000 kids back out to play in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was announced Wednesday.




					www.google.com


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## crush (Oct 21, 2021)

From Catturd:  
BREAKING ...

Governor Ron DeSantis just announced an Emergency Legislative Session to* BAN private sector employee vaccine mandates.*

Best Governor in the USA - Hands down !!!!


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## crush (Oct 21, 2021)

This is good news & bad news


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## crush (Oct 28, 2021)

*Florida invites In-N-Out to open in Sunshine State as restaurant battles California's vaccine mandates*
*Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis touts 'mandate-free state' to In-N-Out owner Lynsi Snyder*


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## crush (Oct 29, 2021)

*Biden admin barred from firing unvaccinated employees after DC judge issues injunction*
*The attorney for the plaintiffs said the Biden administration has shown 'an unprecedented, cavalier attitude toward the rule of law'*


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## crush (Oct 29, 2021)

Good news for JB......

*Biden says Pope Francis told him to continue receiving communion, amid scrutiny over pro-abortion policies*


*"We just talked about the fact that he was happy I'm a good Catholic," Biden said. "And I should keep receiving communion."  *


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 8, 2021)

Not the least bit surprising. The failure to balance reporting and the slow move toward "advocacy journalism" fueled the rise of Foxnews. The direction of higher education appears to be doing the same thing here. It will be interesting where this goes. I have to say, their timing is spot on.









						Controversial figures like Bari Weiss are launching a university they say will pursue 'truth' and combat 'censorship' from top universities
					

"We are alarmed by the illiberalism and censoriousness prevalent in America's most prestigious universities," the University of Austin's website says.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




"Trigger warnings. Safe spaces. Preferred pronouns. Checked privileges. Microaggressions. Antiracism. All these terms are routinely deployed on campuses throughout the English-speaking world as part of a sustained campaign to impose ideological conformity in the name of diversity," Ferguson wrote. "As a result, it often feels as if there is less free speech and free thought in the American university today than in almost any other institution in the U.S."


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## Hüsker Dü (Nov 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Not the least bit surprising. The failure to balance reporting and the slow move toward "advocacy journalism" fueled the rise of Foxnews. The direction of higher education appears to be doing the same thing here. It will be interesting where this goes. I have to say, their timing is spot on.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Why is everything a conspiracy?


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## crush (Nov 11, 2021)




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## crush (Nov 12, 2021)




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## Hüsker Dü (Jan 5, 2022)

Health experts not alarmed by new coronavirus variant – DW – 01/07/2022
					

Despite its many mutations, experts are not overly concerned about IHU coronavirus variant B.1.640.2, first discovered in a traveler returning from Cameroon to France.




					www.dw.com


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## dad4 (Jan 5, 2022)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Why is everything a conspiracy?


Who said it’s a conspiracy?

The peer review process in the humanities leads to conformity.  That conformity isn’t healthy for the Academy, and there a pushback.

Logically, sociologists ought to be writing papers and teaching classes which compare the religious conformity of 1600-1800 academic institutions to the political conformity of modern academic institutions.  It‘s a reasonable comparison:  Harvard’s sociology department is not going to promote a conservative, in the same way that Harvard’s divinity school in 1670 was not going to hire a rabbi.

But, if you want sociologists who are capable of talking about that comparison, you aren’t going to find them within the current structure.  

The question is whether they can succeed at creating a genuinely open model.  Worst case, they create yet one more heavily partisan institution like Fox News or university sociology departments.


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## LASTMAN14 (Jan 5, 2022)

dad4 said:


> Who said it’s a conspiracy?
> 
> The peer review process in the humanities leads to conformity.  That conformity isn’t healthy for the Academy, and there a pushback.
> 
> ...


Don’t reply to that poster. It’s a true rabbit hole of utter insanity. Responding to Espola makes more logic as much as anyone cringes to it.


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## Hüsker Dü (Jan 6, 2022)

LASTMAN14 said:


> Don’t reply to that poster. It’s a true rabbit hole of utter insanity. Responding to Espola makes more logic as much as anyone cringes to it.


“cringes to it.”? You sound hurt. Dad wasn’t even replying to that post of mine as much as making a statement that seems to have alluded you. Maybe someone else could explain it to you? Maybe.


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## dad4 (Jan 6, 2022)

LASTMAN14 said:


> Don’t reply to that poster. It’s a true rabbit hole of utter insanity. Responding to Espola makes more logic as much as anyone cringes to it.


That’s kind of the opposite of my point.  We need more talking and listening to each other, not less.  

No one is learning much if each of us only listens to those we already agree with.


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## Hüsker Dü (Jan 6, 2022)

dad4 said:


> That’s kind of the opposite of my point.  We need more talking and listening to each other, not less.
> 
> No one is learning much if each of us only listens to those we already agree with.


I usually just ignore whose post it is and just read, all ya all look the same to me anyhow. If I keep seeing the same negative messages from the same posters, or lunacy, then I put them on ignore (lessens the time sifting through the unnecessary). There use to only be 6 or 7 regulars in here, the majority on the right, so it was easy to know who is who. Now there are a few more infrequent guests which should be a good thing, but as many seem to simply parrot each other me feels some are just the same people (I always suspect the ones that accuse others of such as the real culprits, Roy Cohn 101).


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## LASTMAN14 (Jan 7, 2022)

dad4 said:


> That’s kind of the opposite of my point.  We need more talking and listening to each other, not less.
> 
> No one is learning much if each of us only listens to those we already agree with.


Agreed. But that’s not the kind of conversation you will have. Which is why I mentioned E as an example.


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## kickingandscreaming (Jan 8, 2022)

dad4 said:


> That’s kind of the opposite of my point.  We need more talking and listening to each other, not less.
> 
> No one is learning much if each of us only listens to those we already agree with.


I agree but it's a bit different online. I regularly engage with you when I don't agree with you about COVID. The problem to me is the "talking and listening to each other". I tend to use the same approach as I would in face-to-face conversation. If an "alias" doesn't engage civilly, I don't engage. The other problem I see is the "each other" when I find it likely that an individual is using multi-aliases. I wouldn't engage with someone that used a different name every time I met them, pushed a specific agenda, and used one of their other aliases to support it. That's trolling. We had a few other posters earlier that I disagreed with on COVID but engaged - KM2 and one or two others. I haven't seen them in a while.

Everyone has their own approach when engaging online. That's mine and it has nothing to do with disagreeing.


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## Soccerhelper (Jan 8, 2022)

kickingandscreaming said:


> *If an "alias" doesn't engage civilly, I don't engage. The other problem I see is the "each other" when I find it likely that an individual is using multi-aliases.
> Everyone has their own approach when engaging online. That's mine and it has nothing to do with disagreeing.*


Excellent points brother.  EVERYONE has their own approach to engaging assholes online.  Dom, I will put Soccerhelper away for now but he might need to come back because EJ might get suspended again.  One good thing with my approach is I'm honest when I change allies.  Love you bro.  I will go back to EJ for now.  Happy New Years from the Helper.


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## kickingandscreaming (Jan 8, 2022)

Soccerhelper said:


> Excellent points brother.  EVERYONE has their own approach to engaging assholes online.  Dom, I will put Soccerhelper away for now but he might need to come back because EJ might get suspended again.  One good thing with my approach is I'm honest when I change allies.  Love you bro.  I will go back to EJ for now.  Happy New Years from the Helper.
> 
> View attachment 12614


Agreed - in your case there is no attempt to mislead.


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## espola (Jan 15, 2022)

Good news -- handguns with RFID tech only allow owners to fire them.









						Personalized smart guns, which allow only verified users to shoot, may become available in US
					

Personalized smart guns, which can be fired only by verified users, may be arriving to U.S. markets.



					www.usatoday.com
				




The followon question is -- how many states will ban the sale of them?


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## Ellejustus (Jan 15, 2022)

More good news!!!


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