# Bad News Thread



## kickingandscreaming (Nov 20, 2020)

The study was done the last two weeks of October, before the election. Hope many feel differently now.

According to the study, nearly two-thirds of Detroiters say they are unlikely to get a coronavirus vaccine -- and those numbers grow among some of the hardest hit communities in the region.

Those from Hispanic or Latinx communities were twice as likely to say they wouldn’t get the vaccine compared to white responders. For Black Detroiters, that number is four times higher.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/11/21/survey-nearly-two-thirds-of-detroit-residents-say-theyre-unlikely-to-get-covid-vaccine/


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## nononono (Nov 20, 2020)

*The " BAD NEWS " is:*
*
*
*FILTHY DEMOCRATS = FILTHY CRIMINALS*


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## N00B (Nov 21, 2020)

nononono said:


> *The " BAD NEWS " is:*
> 
> 
> *FILTHY DEMOCRATS = FILTHY CRIMINALS*


This is exactly why I don’t want COVID discussions to be solely relegated to off-topic.

Wish there was an alternative or middle ground.  Maybe a forum with differing guidelines than the other areas?  Possibly, a no-personal attacks policy for that forum, and/or reactions only to express your opinion on a post?  Just trying to be creative as I found that discussion worthwhile and I fear that in this section discussion will be stifled with lack of participation to avoid interactions like the above post.


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## espola (Nov 21, 2020)

N00B said:


> This is exactly why I don’t want COVID discussions to be solely relegated to off-topic.
> 
> Wish there was an alternative or middle ground.  Maybe a forum with differing guidelines than the other areas?  Possibly, a no-personal attacks policy for that forum, and/or reactions only to express your opinion on a post?  Just trying to be creative as I found that discussion worthwhile and I fear that in this section discussion will be stifled with lack of participation to avoid interactions like the above post.


Relegated?  Anyone can read the threads here, just as if they were in your dear children's age/gender group.


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 21, 2020)

N00B said:


> This is exactly why I don’t want COVID discussions to be solely relegated to off-topic.
> 
> Wish there was an alternative or middle ground.  Maybe a forum with differing guidelines than the other areas?  Possibly, a no-personal attacks policy for that forum, and/or reactions only to express your opinion on a post?  Just trying to be creative as I found that discussion worthwhile and I fear that in this section discussion will be stifled with lack of participation to avoid interactions like the above post.


Without a doubt.


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## N00B (Nov 21, 2020)

espola said:


> Relegated?  Anyone can read the threads here, just as if they were in your dear children's age/gender group.


My point wasn’t that anyone can’t access this section, but that less may participate in a free-for all.  Similar to your point, the COVID-19 forum wasn’t in the SoCalScene topic and wouldn’t interfere with users seeking only soccer related content... it was clearly differentiated from soccer related posts, in it’s own section and could have had its own set of rules vs. soccer above the fold and anything else below the fold.


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## Desert Hound (Nov 21, 2020)

N00B said:


> My point wasn’t that anyone can’t access this section, but that less may participate in a free-for all.  Similar to your point, the COVID-19 forum wasn’t in the SoCalScene topic and wouldn’t interfere with users seeking only soccer related content... it was clearly differentiated from soccer related posts, in it’s own section and could have had its own set of rules vs. soccer above the fold and anything else below the fold.


I think @Dominic should put the covid forum back where it was. If he wants to crack down on covid conversations outside of that locale, fair enough. 

Dropping it down to off topic is probably not the best place in my opinion.


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## crush (Nov 21, 2020)

The bad news is were going to have to put more pressure on 911 dispatchers.  I hear their expecting every Karen in socal looking to snitch.  The good news I can use this to get my dd home now by 10pm.  I just texted her and she thought it was a joke.  I said no, it's the law!!!  She said, "ok daddy, I will obey."  I am so proud of her.  Their is always a positive that comes out of stupid.  LA Sheriff are just like OC Sherriff now.  City police have to answer to each mayor for that city and that can go so many different ways.

Every Sheriff In LA Region Refuses To Enforce Gavin Newsom's COVID Curfew


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## Dominic (Nov 22, 2020)

COVID conversation almost always start political arguments, so they are best kept in the Off Topic 2 area. There you can have at it or stay civil, and I don't have to moderate every post.  I can make a sub forum for COVID within the Off Topic 2 forum, although you will be on your own.


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## crush (Nov 22, 2020)

Dominic said:


> COVID conversation almost always start political arguments, so they are best kept in the Off Topic 2 area. There you can have at it or stay civil, and I don't have to moderate every post.  I can make a sub forum for COVID within the Off Topic 2 forum, although you will be on your own.


How am I doing Dom?  I get carried away so if I need a warning or a "your starting to cross the line" then please help me out.


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## Grace T. (Nov 22, 2020)

La county is shutting down outdoor restaurants and bars effective Wednesday. They are warning if numbers continue to climb lockdown stay at home orders will follow. Short of shutting down hair stylists for a 3rd time given the position the sheriffs have taken this is the last bullet in their gun. It’s going to be the final straw for several restaurants though. I’m friendly with 3 restaurant owners and they have all seemed really worried. One is a sushi bar owner whose been tottering on his last leg (fewer people order sushi for takeout)

since we’re unchained politically the la county health officer and the la supervisors are the worst of the worst. There’s no data that shows this step will do any good and they continue to have schools closed despite the science. That bunch is worse than a group of medieval priests trying to stave off the plague and there’s a special level of hell carved out for them.


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## Grace T. (Nov 22, 2020)

N00B said:


> My point wasn’t that anyone can’t access this section, but that less may participate in a free-for all.  Similar to your point, the COVID-19 forum wasn’t in the SoCalScene topic and wouldn’t interfere with users seeking only soccer related content... it was clearly differentiated from soccer related posts, in it’s own section and could have had its own set of rules vs. soccer above the fold and anything else below the fold.


At a minimum you have to put up with the crazy nono rants or block them. Wonder who it is. Who comes to a soccer forum off topic dead zone to spew crazy talk? Or maybe it’s someone with an alternate avatar to spew their political nonsense?   Maybe it’s me?????


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## Desert Hound (Nov 22, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> La county is shutting down outdoor restaurants and bars effective Wednesday.


So another round of actions that didn't work the first time. Unless the goal was killing biz, hurting educational outcomes, etc. 

Maybe however this time it will be different.


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## Mad Hatter (Nov 22, 2020)

11


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## Mad Hatter (Nov 22, 2020)

So @dad4  has assured us restaurants are a high risk factor. He and others are constantly worried about restaurants. 

Here are STATS from TN. Take a look at restaurants.

Why are we shutting them down? Again?

WSJ the other day talked to health experts around the world. What did they say? They cannot determine WHERE cases are coming from as it relates to 80+% of all cases.

People are still living like it is March and we have no new data.

Take a look at the row dealing with restaurants.



			https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/health/documents/cedep/novel-coronavirus/CriticalIndicatorReport.pdf


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## Mad Hatter (Nov 22, 2020)

Note that like every other state, TN is having a spike in cases.

Pay attention to where they seem not to come from.

Some people on here push that restaurants and bars are the culprits. They cannot actually pull studies. They do however pull quotes from people who THINK they are an issue. Big difference right?


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## Desert Hound (Nov 22, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> At a minimum you have to put up with the crazy nono rants or block them. Wonder who it is. Who comes to a soccer forum off topic dead zone to spew crazy talk? Or maybe it’s someone with an alternate avatar to spew their political nonsense?   Maybe it’s me?????


I believe you have referenced how authoritarian states try to deal with a virus.









						Shanghai airport chaos after 'worker tests positive for Covid'
					

Hazmat suit-clad airport staff were filmed herding a huge crowd into a basement area inside Shanghai Pudong International Airport in the country's financial hub.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


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## Grace T. (Nov 22, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> I believe you have referenced how authoritarian states try to deal with a virus.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And western health experts look at such scenes lovingly and wonder.....why can't we have that here?.....if only those pesky stupid plebs would cooperate.


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## espola (Nov 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> And western health experts look at such scenes lovingly and wonder.....why can't we have that here?.....if only those pesky stupid plebs would cooperate.


Coocoo.


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## Grace T. (Nov 23, 2020)

espola said:


> Coocoo.


Nonsense


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## Desert Hound (Nov 23, 2020)

Here is a new study out saying that asymptomatics do not really transmit the disease. They also observed that people who got covid again were not spreaders themselves.

This should be BIG NEWS. 

"The detection rate of asymptomatic positive cases was very low, and there was no evidence of transmission from asymptomatic positive persons to traced close contacts."

"Previous studies have shown that asymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus were infectious3, and might subsequently become symptomatic4. Compared with symptomatic patients, asymptomatic infected persons generally have low quantity of viral loads and a short duration of viral shedding, which decrease the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-25. In the present study, virus culture was carried out on samples from asymptomatic positive cases, *and found no viable SARS-CoV-2 virus. All close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases tested negative, indicating that the asymptomatic positive cases detected in this study were unlikely to be infectious*."

"There was a low repositive rate in recovered COVID-19 patients in Wuhan. Results of virus culturing and contract tracing *found no evidence that repositive cases in recovered COVID-19 patients were infectious*, which is consistent with evidence from other sources. A study in Korea found no confirmed COVID-19 cases by monitoring 790 contacts of 285 repositive cases6. The official surveillance of recovered COVID-19 patients in China also revealed *no evidence on the infectiousness of repositive cases**7*."









						Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China - Nature Communications
					

Large-scale population screening can provide insights to levels of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, the authors report a citywide screening of ~10,000,000 residents of Wuhan and show that SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence was very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.




					www.nature.com


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## crush (Nov 23, 2020)

Kraken on roids coming?  WTH knows, right?  My buddy sent this to me and I laughed.  Game on!!!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1330894403481726982


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## Grace T. (Nov 23, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Here is a new study out saying that asymptomatics do not really transmit the disease. They also observed that people who got covid again were not spreaders themselves.
> 
> This should be BIG NEWS.
> 
> ...


I wonder if there's a distinction between presymptomatics in the 24 hours before symptoms and asymptomatics in general.  If there isn't masks were sold that we needed to protect people from asymptomatic people.  It could be the explanation for why though studies are showing some mask benefits (in ideal conditions), why they don't seem to be making much of a practical difference in the real world.


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## espola (Nov 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Nonsense


That, too.


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## Grace T. (Nov 23, 2020)

In the tale of more hypocrisy from the good governor, after spending weeks telling everyone that Thanksgiving was going to be a catastrophe and people should stay home, it has been revealed he will have his 89 year old mother and 2 daughters over for thanksgiving.  Not the big assembly he usually has, but still 4 households.


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## Grace T. (Nov 23, 2020)

testing site in the VC today backed up all the way from Moorpark College onto the freeway.  Tons of people wanting to get tested ahead of visiting relatives for the thanksgiving holiday.  Testing sites over the weekend were also very full.


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## N00B (Nov 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> testing site in the VC today backed up all the way from Moorpark College onto the freeway.  Tons of people wanting to get tested ahead of visiting relatives for the thanksgiving holiday.  Testing sites over the weekend were also very full.


Possible silver lining is the prospect of Holiday gatherings is casting a wider testing net than previously seen.


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## crush (Nov 24, 2020)

OC had over 1450 positive cases yesterday.  Oh, oh!!!  The silver lining?  No deaths reported.


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## Mad Hatter (Nov 24, 2020)

This is the page where the CDC has a study the looked at a number of studies on mask effectiveness. May of this year.

"Although mechanistic studies support the potential effect of hand hygiene or face masks, *evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.* We similarly found limited evidence on the effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning."

"Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel *to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids* (_36_). There *is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza."*










						Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures
					

Pandemic Influenza—Personal Protective Measures




					wwwnc.cdc.gov
				




From the National Institute of Health. September 2020

*"Conclusion:* Surgical mask wearing among individuals in non-healthcare settings *is not significantly associated with reduction in ARI incidence in this meta-review."*

"A total of 23,892 participants between 7 and 89 years old involved across 15 studies from 11 countries were involved."









						Effectiveness of Surgical Face Masks in Reducing Acute Respiratory Infections in Non-Healthcare Settings: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
					

Background: Acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) are the most common respiratory infectious diseases among humans globally. Surgical mask (SM) wearing has been shown to be effective in reducing ARI among healthcare workers. However, the effectiveness of ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




In June 2020 the WHO had this to say:

"Many countries have recommended the use of fabric masks/face coverings for the general public. *At the present time, the widespread use of masks by healthy people in the community setting is not yet supported by high quality or direct scientific evidence* and there are potential benefits and harms to consider (see below)."

_They still recommend masks, but note that there is *not a scientific basis* for the recommendation. _



			https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/332293/WHO-2019-nCov-IPC_Masks-2020.4-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y


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## watfly (Nov 24, 2020)

My biggest concern for masks is the false sense of protection they provide.  I can see someone that may think they have Covid, but still go out to the grocery store or somewhere because they think their cloth mask will protect others.  Pushing risks under the justification that wearing a mask will protect everyone is dangerous.

While we should follow the mask protocols when social distancing is not possible, I think our government and media should be honest about the limitations of masks.


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

watfly said:


> My biggest concern for masks is the false sense of protection they provide.  I can see someone that may think they have Covid, but still go out to the grocery store or somewhere because they think their cloth mask will protect others.  Pushing risks under the justification that wearing a mask will protect everyone is dangerous.
> 
> While we should follow the mask protocols when social distancing is not possible, I think our government and media should be honest about the limitations of masks.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1330997234020753408

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1327330469776506881


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

Mind boggling what's going on in New Mexico.









						New Mexico governor shuts down grocery stores for two weeks
					

A dozen grocery stores around the state have been forced to close for two weeks because of a public health order issued by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham at a time when the state’s residents are suffering from record high unemployment and food insecurity, critics say.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com


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## Desert Hound (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Mind boggling what's going on in New Mexico.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Our best and brightest are in charge. 

Hey Bob? 

What? 

You know the thing people need the most is food. I have an idea. We should start limiting access and closing some locations down. It won't help, but it will show the people that the government is active and working hard to eliminate the virus. 

I like it. Run with it. Draw up the exec order. I will sign it after I get back from lunch.


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## watfly (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Mind boggling what's going on in New Mexico.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It appears that this was punitive.  New level of insanity.  I hope a judge puts a stop to it quickly.


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 24, 2020)

watfly said:


> My biggest concern for masks is the false sense of protection they provide.  I can see someone that may think they have Covid, but still go out to the grocery store or somewhere because they think their cloth mask will protect others.  Pushing risks under the justification that wearing a mask will protect everyone is dangerous.
> 
> While we should follow the mask protocols when social distancing is not possible, I think our government and media should be honest about the limitations of masks.


This is exactly where I stand on masks. When I get into my car, I put on my seat belt because it’s safer than driving without wearing it, but there is no illusion that it completely protects me. I feel the same way about wearing a mask.


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Mind boggling what's going on in New Mexico.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Four? Regardless of size of the store and/or number of employees? Was there any indication how they arrived at this policy? It seems so arbitrary.


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Was there any indication how they arrived at this policy?


Of course there is:.....science!


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

This guy raises the concern that masks may be contributing to the aerosolizing of COVID.  For the record, it's probably not true but it does raise an interesting possibility for thought......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320032755049222145


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Of course there is:.....science!


I bet New Mexican’s are wishing they voted for a fan of “The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy”. At least then the “answer” might have been 42 instead of 4.


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

A roundup of reports of how remote education is going.  With grade protection gone this year, it seems failing grades are way up.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1331285866602504194


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## Soccer Bum 06 (Nov 24, 2020)

watfly said:


> It appears that this was punitive.  New level of insanity.  I hope a judge puts a stop to it quickly.


The most disappointing part of our democratic republic has been the silence of the judicial branch during this period.  Knowing that many of the edicts being put forth by state and local governments are unconstitutional, this branch of government has failed along with the others. It is just another political body and no longer a check against the other branches.


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## watfly (Nov 24, 2020)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> The most disappointing part of our democratic republic has been the silence of the judicial branch during this period.  Knowing that many of the edicts being put forth by state and local governments are unconstitutional, this branch of government has failed along with the others. It is just another political body and no longer a check against the other branches.


Maybe








						Judge says no to letting San Diego County restaurants, gyms reopen indoors amid rise in coronavirus cases
					

Local businesses had filed suit seeking a temporary restraining order that would have overturned county and state orders that restaurants and gyms be limited to outdoor-only operations




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com
				




But then again there is this.








						Judge overrules county, allows strip clubs to reopen
					

Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continue to increase in San Diego




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com
				




In fairness, the case has to be brought to the judges and maybe the attorneys' aren't making the right arguments.  How my daughter's dance studio gets closed down but strip clubs can stay open is proof that this is all a charade.


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

There was a hearing today regarding the order shuttering outdoor dining.  The health experts were hard pressed to explain the science behind the decision.  The Supervisors took a vote 2-3...the order stands.


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> There was a hearing today regarding the order shuttering outdoor dining.  The health experts were hard pressed to explain the science behind the decision.  The Supervisors took a vote 2-3...the order stands.


What truly amazes me is how much power these unelected experts are weilding.  And to the extent there is a political check on them, it's the supervisors.  I don't know about you guys, but I've never voted on a supervisor in recent memory, let alone gone out and researched what their potential positions might be on shutdowns when faced with an emergency.  At the minimum, for all Newsom's faults, I voted for governor and can hold him accountable for the decisions and generally know where he stands by way of partisan politics, but until all this started I paid more attention to our local council than the supervisors.


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

Biden telling NBC today schools should be open as soon as possible.  O.k....but where were you on this issue months ago when it actually could have made a difference?


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## N00B (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Biden telling NBC today schools should be open as soon as possible.  O.k....but where were you on this issue months ago when it actually could have made a difference?


As soon as possible under what conditions? Vaccine?  Hope not.  If so, we’re talking Fall.


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## Soccer Bum 06 (Nov 24, 2020)

watfly said:


> Maybe
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The Libertarian side of me says when in doubt enforce the rights the constitution guarantees. If a judge even loosely enforces these rights then much of what is being done in this pandemic should be overturned. The issue is mandates are being enacted by the governor everyday. Lawsuits take time and money and without a judiciary willing to stand up for the people and their rights allows this nonsense to continue.


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## Grace T. (Nov 24, 2020)

N00B said:


> As soon as possible under what conditions? Vaccine?  Hope not.  If so, we’re talking Fall.


Well have longer to wait for that.  It's taken him this long to even say we should try and open them.  He reprimanded CBS reporter Bo Erikson 3 days ago for shouting out a question on school openings 3 days ago.


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## Desert Hound (Nov 24, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I bet New Mexican’s are wishing they voted for a fan of “The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy”. At least then the “answer” might have been 42 instead of 4.


I bet most miss any reference to that book.  Great book


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## espola (Nov 24, 2020)

watfly said:


> It appears that this was punitive.  New level of insanity.  I hope a judge puts a stop to it quickly.


Quarantining the hottest infection sites is not "punitive".


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## espola (Nov 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This guy raises the concern that masks may be contributing to the aerosolizing of COVID.  For the record, it's probably not true but it does raise an interesting possibility for thought......
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320032755049222145


I don't see that.  What I see is a lot of hand-waving.  "Trust me, I used to work for the experts on this.


I also find it curious that you posted the Mark Twain quote.  Lack of self-awareness, I suppose.


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## kickingandscreaming (Nov 24, 2020)

N00B said:


> As soon as possible under what conditions? Vaccine?  Hope not.  If so, we’re talking Fall.


I’m guessing it depends on how soon teachers get vaccinated. Maybe mid-March, early April if they vaccinate the teachers?


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## espola (Nov 24, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I bet New Mexican’s are wishing they voted for a fan of “The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy”. At least then the “answer” might have been 42 instead of 4.


I can't resist this side-track.  In the Guide, 42 is the answer to the Ultimate Question of life, the universe, and everything.  That ultimate question is "what is 6 times 9?"  42 is the correct answer in base 13.


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## Grace T. (Nov 25, 2020)

La county supervisors meeting today to discuss banning all in person and outdoor gatherings. Would essentially ban all thanksgiving gatherings (good luck with that) but potentially will also impact sports practices and private trainings (subject to local enforcement of course). Outdoor church and protests exempted.


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## Kicker4Life (Nov 25, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> La county supervisors meeting today to discuss banning all in person and outdoor gatherings. Would essentially ban all thanksgiving gatherings (good luck with that) but potentially will also impact sports practices and private trainings (subject to local enforcement of course). Outdoor church and protests exempted.


So the virus is more communicable indoors, so they want to ban all outdoor gatherings so everyone has to shelter indoors. Got it!


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## Grace T. (Nov 25, 2020)

we are still actively abusing a generation of children......









						The Children of Quarantine
					

What does a year of isolation and anxiety do to a developing brain?




					www.thecut.com


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## Grace T. (Nov 25, 2020)

Another possible explanation for why masks aren't helping countries/state very much to bend curves.....









						Dr. Mike is called out for hypocrisy after he's seen partying maskless
					

The 31-year-old flew from New York City to Miami to celebrate his birthday on November 12. He's seen on a boat in Sunset Harbor surrounded by 14 other people - most of them bikini-clad women.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


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## Desert Hound (Nov 25, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Another possible explanation for why masks aren't helping countries/state very much to bend curves.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I am going to have to try that type of social distancing.


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## Kicker4Life (Nov 25, 2020)

Sooo, the COVID19.CA.GOV site has a mantra, “This data drives decisions that keep California healthy and safe.”  So I did some digging to see how the numbers could be driving these further “lockdowns” and found something interesting. July 24th was the previous “high point” for Covid in CA, at which time Outdoor dining was Open (and remains open) and we saw a recovery.  So I compared the data to more recent numbers (11/23 to be exact), after the state announced we are shutting down Outdoor Dining and implementing a curfew. 

New Positive Cases:  
 7/24 - 10,066
11/23 - 15,329

New Deaths w/ Covid
 7/24 - 151  (14 day rolling ave. 99.4)
11/23 -  43  (14 day rolling ave. 54.9)

Total Tests:
 7/24 - 131,479
11/23 - 283,819

Positivity Rate:
 7/24 - 7.5%
11/23 - 5.6%

Hospitalizations:
 7/24 - 8,444
11/24 - 6,641

ICU Beds Available:
 7/24 - 2,572
11/23 - 2,126 (3rd straight day of increased availability)

So remind me again why we are once again sacrificing small business owners and people’s livelihoods?


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## Soccer Bum 06 (Nov 25, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> Sooo, the COVID19.CA.GOV site has a mantra, “This data drives decisions that keep California healthy and safe.”  So I did some digging to see how the numbers could be driving these further “lockdowns” and found something interesting. July 24th was the previous “high point” for Covid in CA, at which time Outdoor dining was Open (and remains open) and we saw a recovery.  So I compared the data to more recent numbers (11/23 to be exact), after the state announced we are shutting down Outdoor Dining and implementing a curfew.
> 
> New Positive Cases:
> 7/24 - 10,066
> ...


This state and much of this country is run by a extremely political band of misfits who don’t believe in the constitution. Can’t think of any scientific or data driven reasons.


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## Kicker4Life (Nov 25, 2020)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> This state and much of this country is run by a extremely political band of misfits who don’t believe in the constitution. Can’t think of any scientific or data driven reasons.


Either can the media.....









						How much are restaurants contributing to the spread of COVID-19 in LA County?
					

Data from L.A. County's health department shows a small percentage of outbreaks have been tied to restaurants and bars. But some have been cited for coronavirus-related violations.




					abc7.com


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## watfly (Nov 30, 2020)

Gov. Newsom considers reinstating stay-at-home order for most of California if COVID-19 trends continue
					

"If these trends continue, we're going to have to take much more dramatic, arguably drastic action," Newsom said,  including "the potential for a stay-at-home order for those regions in purple."




					abc7.com
				




_"If these trends continue, we're going to have to take much more dramatic, arguably drastic action," Newsom said, including "the potential for a stay-at-home order for those regions in purple." _

Good freaking luck with that.


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## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

watfly said:


> Gov. Newsom considers reinstating stay-at-home order for most of California if COVID-19 trends continue
> 
> 
> "If these trends continue, we're going to have to take much more dramatic, arguably drastic action," Newsom said,  including "the potential for a stay-at-home order for those regions in purple."
> ...


Yeah, it's been funny to watch the La County order come down.  First, you have the churches and the protests exempt, which weren't first go around.  Then all the film and TV production, which were locked down the first time.  Box stores remain open.  So do hair cuts.  Plumbers complained but they clarified plumbers are essential.  LAFC complained they clarified LAFC could practice.  Essentially, nothing's changed except it might be harder for some LA County teams to get field permits for what's supposed to be distanced practices, playgrounds shut again, outdoor dining was shut (but that was before the stay at home order), and some nonenforceable order about households not getting together.  You really think households aren't going to get together to celebrate the holidays?  Was in Griffith Park this weekend...sizeable (at least for the times) kid's birthday party going on....more funny they set up this tent for the kids to eat in (which reduces the circulation).  The biggest spread in is private gatherings....it's why these limitations won't help much....and short of Australian style lockdowns they can't control these private gatherings.


----------



## watfly (Nov 30, 2020)

Full blown wedding reception indoors, no masks, at an event space this weekend on Mission Bay.  Just got notice our practice is cancelled due to a possible player Covid case.  Mom has Covid, but kid tested negative and hasn't been at practice since the 17th.  Club is being super cautious  and mentioned that practice is likely canceled for week.


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1333539332330643456


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

Estimation of Years of Life Lost Associated With School Closures During COVID-19
					

This decision analytical model estimates the potential years of life lost among US primary school–aged children associated with school closures during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.




					jamanetwork.com


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Estimation of Years of Life Lost Associated With School Closures During COVID-19
> 
> 
> This decision analytical model estimates the potential years of life lost among US primary school–aged children associated with school closures during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
> ...


What's the point?


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

espola said:


> What's the point?


school closures=bad


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

Dr. Flip Flop: A timeline of Fauci's school reopening positions
					

Early on, Fauci was "blessing" school closures and attacking proponents of reopening. He now claims to have supported reopening the whole time.




					jordanschachtel.substack.com


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> school closures=bad


School closures -> less education -> lower income -> shorter life.  Each step has been accepted as showing strong correlation , but none of those correlations were established in times like the current situation 

Here's a similar argument --

Moose can't fly and goose sounds like moose, so goose can't fly.


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Dr. Flip Flop: A timeline of Fauci's school reopening positions
> 
> 
> Early on, Fauci was "blessing" school closures and attacking proponents of reopening. He now claims to have supported reopening the whole time.
> ...


You can pass this up to your source -  coocoo.


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

espola said:


> School closures -> less education -> lower income -> shorter life.  Each step has been accepted as showing strong correlation , but none of those correlations were established in times like the current situation
> 
> Here's a similar argument --
> 
> Moose can't fly and goose sounds like moose, so goose can't fly.


Fair criticism.  Not my study and like many of these on the other side that engage in hyperbole, I tend to view with skepticism.  Still, an interesting point...even if the numbers aren't correct.  It raises interesting questions like the tradeoff in lives we are making for the young v the lives of the old.


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

espola said:


> You can pass this up to your source -  coocoo.



I just quoted CNN as a source too...doesn't matter to me where it comes from, do you refute the timeline he's raised?


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I just quoted CNN as a source too...doesn't matter to me where it comes from, do you refute the timeline he's raised?


It wasn't CNN that snipped out quotes from Dr. Fauci to please the gullible.


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

espola said:


> It wasn't CNN that snipped out quotes from Dr. Fauci to please the gullible.


So the answer to my question is no.


----------



## espola (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> So the answer to my question is no.


Reading comprehension?


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

espola said:


> Reading comprehension?



What about the timeline is wrong?


----------



## Grace T. (Nov 30, 2020)

Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report
					

The new coronavirus infected people in the U.S. in mid-December 2019, a few weeks before it was officially identified in China and about a month earlier than public health authorities found the first U.S. case, according to a government study.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## watfly (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Dr. Flip Flop: A timeline of Fauci's school reopening positions
> 
> 
> Early on, Fauci was "blessing" school closures and attacking proponents of reopening. He now claims to have supported reopening the whole time.
> ...


I like Fauci and he is a brilliant immunologist but he got in way for his head.  He's a lab guy, and is not an overall health policy expert and certainly not a big picture guy.  An asset for the task force but never should have been the lead figurehead.  Was not savvy enough as an interviewee and painted himself into a corner way too many times with less than circumspect answers.  Bright but naive.

BTW he was on the Chris Coumo show last week and Fauci was in favor of schools being open at the goading of Cuomo who apparently is a big proponent of school reopenings.  Interestingly enough, CNN deleted that part of the interview with Fauci on their website.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1333539332330643456


Quit pushing those Fox News narratives


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Nov 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1333539332330643456


This surprises NOBODY who has an ounce of common sense. So, is there any chance of lawsuits over this? Newsome ought to at least get the CA taxpayers back their billion dollars he spent on Chinese masks.


----------



## N00B (Nov 30, 2020)

Cal on demographics and COVID deaths:









						Demographers put COVID-19 death toll into perspective: Researchers calculate pandemic's impact on U.S. lifespan based on projected mortality rates
					

With over 170,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, and 1,000 more each day, America's life expectancy may appear to be plummeting. But in estimating the magnitude of the pandemic, demographers have found that COVID-19 is likely to shorten the average US lifespan in 2020 by only about a year.



					www.sciencedaily.com
				




When policy and science are aligned, I’ll support actions taken.  All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.  Which ‘best world’ expresses your world view will color the conversation... for me, it’s the kids.


----------



## watfly (Dec 1, 2020)

N00B said:


> Cal on demographics and COVID deaths:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It's straight up criminal that kids aren't back in school.  I understood (but didn't agree with) online learning last spring, but the fact the kids didn't return in fall with all the overwhelming evidence supporting it is just political.  F%&k the unions.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 1, 2020)

watfly said:


> It's straight up criminal that kids aren't back in school.  I understood (but didn't agree with) online learning last spring, but the fact the kids didn't return in fall with all the overwhelming evidence supporting it is just political.  F%&k the unions.


The stats have been there from day one regarding younger people. 

They have no risk. It also turns out school are not spreading events either as many in the news and here have long predicted. 

As of today on the CDC website they *show a TOTAL of 515 deaths* in the US of people 24 and under. 

And we shut down schools because of that number? 
We shut down colleges and college sports? 
We have people on these boards wondering if it is safe for their kids to go play soccer, to hang out with friends, etc?

By the way...in that age group 24 and under so far this year there have been about 50k deaths from other illness, accidents, etc. That happens year after year. With that stat we just say OK so? And move on with our lives. And yet with 500 or so deaths a substantial portion of our population thinks not going to school is a rational and good idea.


----------



## watfly (Dec 1, 2020)

The news is claiming that England's 2nd lockdown reduced Covid infections by 30%....schools were kept open during that time.  Kids risk of infection is actually lower in school than not.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 1, 2020)

watfly said:


> The news is claiming that England's 2nd lockdown reduced Covid infections by 30%....schools were kept open during that time.  Kids risk of infection is actually lower in school than not.


There was an Independent study done in NYC schools that showed the same......yet in CA, here we are.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 1, 2020)

So the El Paso mayor had this to say today.

"“We did a deep dive in our contact tracing for the week of November the 10th through the 16th and found that 55% of the positives were coming from shopping at large retailers, what we’d term as the big box stores,” Margo said. “And those are considered essential under CISA guidelines under homeland security. And we don’t really have- I don’t have any control over any limitations there.”

I think @dad4 thinks bars are the driver though


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 1, 2020)

Rumors flying in our local paper that governor intends to announce lockdowns tomorrow


----------



## N00B (Dec 1, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Rumors flying in our local paper that governor intends to announce lockdowns tomorrow


Not surprising.  I’ve been thinking that since the press conference on Monday... my guess was Thursday...  

The press conference from Monday indicated a ‘deep purple’  expansion of mitigation efforts, if the trends continued and may be drastic.  

Last week, the local reporting was often about how to expect an increase this week due to impacted testing and reporting over the Holiday Weekend.

I’m guessing this was a known outcome and Monday’s Press conference was a trial balloon as to how it would be received.... it made my apple newsfeed and was well received by the media.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 1, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Rumors flying in our local paper that governor intends to announce lockdowns tomorrow


Ha! Maybe he's trying to catch it at the top so he can take credit. It is likely very close - especially in the areas that were hit hard the first wave. Santa Clara county, not so close. Ugh. I think it's going to be a while. @dad4


----------



## dad4 (Dec 1, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ha! Maybe he's trying to catch it at the top so he can take credit. It is likely very close - especially in the areas that were hit hard the first wave. Santa Clara county, not so close. Ugh. I think it's going to be a while. @dad4
> 
> View attachment 9558


As you said, SCC has a long way to go to get out of purple.  I wonder which political morons leaned on the health dept. to open up restaurants.

We will know more in a few days as the Thanksgiving infections start to come in.  Maybe people were smart enough to have their meals separately.

Not betting on it.  Now they have to choose whether to close retail in December, or risk running out of  ICU space.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 1, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> So the El Paso mayor had this to say today.
> 
> "“We did a deep dive in our contact tracing for the week of November the 10th through the 16th and found that 55% of the positives were coming from shopping at large retailers, what we’d term as the big box stores,” Margo said. “And those are considered essential under CISA guidelines under homeland security. And we don’t really have- I don’t have any control over any limitations there.”
> 
> I think @dad4 thinks bars are the driver though


Really?

No one in the country has managed to contact trace 55% of their positive cases.   Wonder how they managed it?  

Of course, it is just barely possible that the mayor of El Paso has an incentive to blame Walmart even if he lacks real data.  

Not saying Walmart is a smart place to be right now, but you need a better data source than a politician.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 1, 2020)

dad4 said:


> but you need a better data source than a politician.


Now that's some good advice whether in a pandemic or not.


----------



## N00B (Dec 1, 2020)

dad4 said:


> As you said, SCC has a long way to go to get out of purple.  I wonder which political morons leaned on the health dept. to open up restaurants.
> 
> We will know more in a few days as the Thanksgiving infections start to come in.  Maybe people were smart enough to have their meals separately.
> 
> Not betting on it.  Now they have to choose whether to close retail in December, or risk running out of  ICU space.


While we’re in the bad news thread, since math is a strong point of yours... at the current rate of spread, you can pick a variable for the duration of that spread rate, when do we hit 200,000 test confirmed infections per day.  How many days at that rate will it take to achieve heard immunity?  How does that compare with the projected timeline for a vaccine to reach widespread access?


----------



## dad4 (Dec 1, 2020)

N00B said:


> While we’re in the bad news thread, since math is a strong point of yours... at the current rate of spread, you can pick a variable for the duration of that spread rate, when do we hit 200,000 test confirmed infections per day.  How many days at that rate will it take to achieve heard immunity?  How does that compare with the projected timeline for a vaccine to reach widespread access?


I've been looking at the upper midwest to try to guess where confirmed infections tops out.

Seems to be just over 10% if you insist on being macho.  (North Dakota plan.)

Means we don't hit pure herd immunity until we are at 34 million confirmed infections.  About 100 days at 200k per day.

Mind you, that plan is bat shit crazy stupid.  You'd have something like 2 million extra hospitalizations and 200,000 extra deaths.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 1, 2020)

N00B said:


> While we’re in the bad news thread, since math is a strong point of yours... at the current rate of spread, you can pick a variable for the duration of that spread rate, when do we hit 200,000 test confirmed infections per day.  How many days at that rate will it take to achieve heard immunity?  How does that compare with the projected timeline for a vaccine to reach widespread access?


Check this link out these 3 links. If you look at the first link, you will see we are actually dropping in new cases/day. We'll see if the drop persists despite the holidays. Also, the rate of spread is almost constantly changing and the level needed for herd immunity is debated - some indicating it's as low as 40% (few believe this is likely) others as high as 70%. As dad states, ND might be our test for it. Reaching herd immunity will be regional. HI will likely get there last, sometime this summer and primarily through vaccination, Florida, Texas, Arizona, and a bunch of the heartland may be pretty close in March if the vaccine progresses as expected.

** Daily data and 7-day averages for each state and the US as a whole. As a nation, we are heading down in cases/day (see the top of the page in link below - scroll down to see "mini" case graphs for the states.)








						Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
					

A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.



					www.nytimes.com
				




** 7-day new case/day average for each state. This is actually down about 10% from its high last week of 55/100,000








						Risk Levels - Global Epidemics
					

RISK LEVELS First published in July 2020, our Covid-19 risk levels dashboard tracks the pandemic in real time and has provided consistent information about risk levels based on daily case counts.   DASHBOARD How severe is the pandemic where you live? Tracking the Pandemic in Real Time In July...




					globalepidemics.org
				




** This estimates the rate of growth of the new cases - how many people each infected individual will infect, on average.








						Rt COVID-19
					

Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.



					rt.live


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 1, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Check this link out these 3 links. If you look at the first link, you will see we are actually dropping in new cases/day.


It’s interesting that Europe is following the same pattern too irrespective of state interventions (Switzerland/Sweden v France/spain).  There are some anomalies (eg Germany is still at peak, Canada still rising).  It may also point that the coronavirus may be following the classic 1-2-3 waves of influenza and other respiratory illnesses. The question then is does the vaccine get things under control before the third wave hits.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

Cif is apparently throwing in the towel?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> It’s interesting that Europe is following the same pattern too irrespective of state interventions (Switzerland/Sweden v France/spain).  There are some anomalies (eg Germany is still at peak, Canada still rising).  It may also point that the coronavirus may be following the classic 1-2-3 waves of influenza and other respiratory illnesses. The question then is does the vaccine get things under control before the third wave hits.


At first glance, those still rising when "comparable" neighbors are not had little to no "first wave".

The word "wave" appears to be used ambiguously - even among experts. Fauci warned of "wave after wave" of new infections a few days ago and on October 26 he stated that we are still in "an elongated first wave". So, is CA in the 2nd wave or the elongated first wave? What about TX, AZ, and FL? Graphically, those states are in a 2nd wave. Has HI even had a virus "wave"? Maybe he means that some places are just now experiencing their first wave - although some appear to be well into their second wave. I don't know. I believe we have a good shot at missing a wave this spring if the vaccine gets out as they plan in the states that have considerable seroprevalence. Either way, the death rate should drop considerably - all other things being equal - since a significant proportion of the population at high risk will be vaccinated by March according to plan.

One thing that struck me was how quickly some of the states dropped from the peak (ND, SD, etc.) compared to the "first wave" in other states. Maybe that's what the "little/no intervention" curve looks like.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> At first glance, those still rising when "comparable" neighbors are not had little to no "first wave".
> 
> The word "wave" appears to be used ambiguously - even among experts. Fauci warned of "wave after wave" of new infections a few days ago and on October 26 he stated that we are still in "an elongated first wave". So, is CA in the 2nd wave or the elongated first wave? What about TX, AZ, and FL? Graphically, those states are in a 2nd wave. Has HI even had a virus "wave"? Maybe he means that some places are just now experiencing their first wave - although some appear to be well into their second wave. I don't know. I believe we have a good shot at missing a wave this spring if the vaccine gets out as they plan in the states that have considerable seroprevalence. Either way, the death rate should drop considerably - all other things being equal - since a significant proportion of the population at high risk will be vaccinated by March according to plan.
> 
> One thing that struck me was how quickly some of the states dropped from the peak (ND, SD, etc.) compared to the "first wave" in other states. Maybe that's what the "little/no intervention" curve looks like.


SD and ND are interesting.  ND instituted a partial lockdown though a little late.  SD didn't.  Their cuves are virtually identical (if anything SD is doing a little better).


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

Here's the CIF press release.....



			Statement Regarding Education-Based Athletics for 2020-21 School Year -  California Interscholastic Federation


----------



## watfly (Dec 2, 2020)

I've figured out what's happening in California.  NoCal is trying to F with SoCal.  NoCal has a self esteem problem and is jealous of SoCal (likely because our beaches and soccer teams are so much better than theirs).  Look at how Newsom lashed out at OC early in the pandemic and closed OC beaches.  Also look how its all the NoCal politicians that are so sanctimonious about their restrictions, but are the ones that ignore them.  Pelosi, Newsom, Mayor of SF and Mayor of SJ do as they please, while they come down harshly on any SoCal rule breakers.  Just like Russia fomented controversy and discontent on Facebook to guarantee a Trump victory 2016, NoCal is planting surrogates on Socalsoccer.com to create an atmosphere of fear and lash out at any perceived rule breakers.  You think its just a coincidence that Dad4 is from NoCal?  You may want to rethink that. Qanon has nothing on me.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

So here's what I'm hearing about the new state lockdowns.  Youth sports will continue as guided/distanced.  It probably doubles down on the stupid LA County moves to end outdoor dining and to restrict private gatherings (which no one will pay attention to).  Their problem is there are now so many carve outs (school waivers, supreme court church decisions, protests, favored businesses), that they are getting pushed back hard by key interest groups all arguing they should be given exemptions.  I'd still get my haircuts this week just in case if you need one.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

I can't believe they are still wedded to these stupid projections.  None of them have EVER panned out.









						Gov Newsom says CA may run out of ICU beds before Christmas Eve
					

California Gov Gavin Newsom said he may impose a stay-at-home order to counter surging COVID-19 hospitalizations that threaten to overwhelm ICUs before Christmas Eve.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## dad4 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I can't believe they are still wedded to these stupid projections.  None of them have EVER panned out.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Which projections do you like better?

Or would you prefer that we made policy without the use of projections?


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Which projections do you like better?
> 
> Or would you prefer that we made policy without the use of projections?


Making policy using projections that are consistently bad is not good policy/governance.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Which projections do you like better?
> 
> Or would you prefer that we made policy without the use of projections?




I'd prefer they fix the projections, but every time team reality has attempted to do that they've been attacked as heretics.  Building government policy time after time on bad projections is not good governance.  So yes, given the choices we're left with, I'd prefer we made policy without the use of projections.  I know...I know...shocking and inconceivable to a math teacher divorced from practical applications in the real world.  Bad math is worse than no math.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Which projections do you like better?


Correct ones?


----------



## watfly (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Which projections do you like better?
> 
> Or would you prefer that we made policy without the use of projections?


Are you familiar with the story of the boy who called wolf?

All kidding aside, I'm concerned with spikes in the hospitalizations fortunately SD County is far from capacity and as we've seen these waves burnout after a few weeks. Lets not rehash the debate caused by dire predictions of one poster from a couple months ago who was adamant that OC would run out of ICU beds.

I trust history over models.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I'd prefer they fix the projections, but every time team reality has attempted to do that they've been attacked as heretics.  Building government policy time after time on bad projections is not good governance.  So yes, given the choices we're left with, I'd prefer we made policy without the use of projections.  I know...I know...shocking and inconceivable to a math teacher divorced from practical applications in the real world.  Bad math is worse than no math.


Great.  Now is the perfect time for “team reality” to step up and show how awesome they are at predicting pandemics.

Post a link to the “team reality“ covid ICU forecast for Dec 31 and January 31, and we can look at it in 9 weeks.

Looking forward to February, when I can properly admire the amazingly accurate ‘team reality” forecast.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Great.  Now is the perfect time for “team reality” to step up and show how awesome they are at predicting pandemics.
> 
> Post a link to the “team reality“ covid ICU forecast for Dec 31 and January 31, and we can look at it in 9 weeks.
> 
> Looking forward to February, when I can properly admire the amazingly accurate ‘team reality” forecast.


To do that you need a publisher and you need the cooperation of government.  Since most of government is not on team reality, this is akin to arguing in the days before space travel prove the moon isn't made up of cheese and then complaining when they won't send up a rocket mission.  Plus, as we've seen with the Danish mask study, the scientific community is punishing unorthodox thought with a stunning ferocity.  Scott Atlas is exhibit A

The closest wehave to these projections are from the Swedish health ministry, which also erred on the high side of their projections, or the Russian and Belarussian ones, which are tainted by obvious politics.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

L.A. County must show evidence for outdoor dining ban, judge orders
					

A judge on Wednesday ordered Los Angeles County public health officials to show scientific evidence justifying the outdoor dining ban imposed last week amid soaring coronavirus cases.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I'd prefer they fix the projections, but every time team reality has attempted to do that they've been attacked as heretics.  Building government policy time after time on bad projections is not good governance.  So yes, given the choices we're left with, I'd prefer we made policy without the use of projections.  I know...I know...shocking and inconceivable to a math teacher divorced from practical applications in the real world.  Bad math is worse than no math.


She:   I have told you a dozen times that if you don't slow down before the curve, you are going off the road.
He:  I have put the brakes on every time just like you said, and we never went off the road - so I'm not listening to you any more.


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

watfly said:


> Are you familiar with the story of the boy who called wolf?
> 
> All kidding aside, I'm concerned with spikes in the hospitalizations fortunately SD County is far from capacity and as we've seen these waves burnout after a few weeks. Lets not rehash the debate caused by dire predictions of one poster from a couple months ago who was adamant that OC would run out of ICU beds.
> 
> I trust history over models.


Models are based on history.


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> To do that you need a publisher and you need the cooperation of government.  Since most of government is not on team reality, this is akin to arguing in the days before space travel prove the moon isn't made up of cheese and then complaining when they won't send up a rocket mission.  Plus, as we've seen with the Danish mask study, the scientific community is punishing unorthodox thought with a stunning ferocity.  Scott Atlas is exhibit A
> 
> The closest wehave to these projections are from the Swedish health ministry, which also erred on the high side of their projections, or the Russian and Belarussian ones, which are tainted by obvious politics.


Coocoo.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

espola said:


> She:   I have told you a dozen times that if you don't slow down before the curve, you are going off the road.
> He:  I have put the brakes on every time just like you said, and we never went off the road - so I'm not listening to you any more.


If true the projections would have held for South Dakota, Florida, Switzerland, and Sweden at a minimum.   They didn't. 



espola said:


> Models are based on history.



This is the funniest thing you've ever written.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> To do that you need a publisher and you need the cooperation of government.  Since most of government is not on team reality, this is akin to arguing in the days before space travel prove the moon isn't made up of cheese and then complaining when they won't send up a rocket mission.  Plus, as we've seen with the Danish mask study, the scientific community is punishing unorthodox thought with a stunning ferocity.  Scott Atlas is exhibit A
> 
> The closest wehave to these projections are from the Swedish health ministry, which also erred on the high side of their projections, or the Russian and Belarussian ones, which are tainted by obvious politics.


Link.  “Team reality“ needs to post a link.

You are criticizing other people's projections when you have none of your own to test.

If you can do it better, post a link to a "team reality" projection. We can wait two months and see how accurate it was.

Otherwise, you are "team blowhard".


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Link.  “Team reality“ needs to post a link.
> 
> You are criticizing other people's projections when you have none of your own to test.
> 
> ...


Much rather be on team blowhard than on team scared and delusional


----------



## dad4 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Much rather be on team blowhard than on team scared and delusional


So we are back to psychiatric evaluations of those who disagree with you?

Don't forget to paste your words into a meme generator.  That will really prove your point.

We both know that forecasts are difficult.  Criticizing forecasts without making them is dirty pool.  So don't do it.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> To do that you need a publisher and you need the cooperation of government.  Since most of government is not on team reality, this is akin to arguing in the days before space travel prove the moon isn't made up of cheese and then complaining when they won't send up a rocket mission.  Plus, as we've seen with the Danish mask study, the scientific community is punishing unorthodox thought with a stunning ferocity.  Scott Atlas is exhibit A
> 
> The closest wehave to these projections are from the Swedish health ministry, which also erred on the high side of their projections, or the Russian and Belarussian ones, which are tainted by obvious politics.


The Danish mask study correctly demonstrated that surgical masks on the receiving end reduce risk to the wearer by less than 50%.

Then, some fools on the internet misinterpreted the study to claim that masks do not work overall.  

Do we need to go back to the study to remember what it does, and does not, say?  Or can we agree to stop misrepresenting the study?


----------



## N00B (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I've been looking at the upper midwest to try to guess where confirmed infections tops out.
> 
> Seems to be just over 10% if you insist on being macho.  (North Dakota plan.)
> 
> ...


I wasn’t suggesting that the above was a plan.  More that the ‘bat shit crazy’ numbers, 2mil hospitalizations and 200k deaths may already be in the cards.

Vaccine availability may play a small part in achieving herd immunity given the rate of spread. If widespread distribution is expected in April/May... we’re going to be well past that 100 day mark.

True the run rate is extremely unlikely to remain constant, but with that time frame still being in respiratory illness season and a possible 3rd wave in store (each wave has increased, likely based on the baseline of possible carriers at onset) the net results may not be that dissimilar, before widespread availability of a vaccine.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> So we are back to psychiatric evaluations of those who disagree with you?
> 
> Don't forget to paste your words into a meme generator.  That will really prove your point.
> 
> We both know that forecasts are difficult.  Criticizing forecasts without making them is dirty pool.  So don't do it.


The extent to which you are delusional is you are actually arguing you rather have government policy based on a forecast that's wrong than one than none at all.  If you follow it logically the first is guaranteed to get you wrong results...in the 2nd you might actually get lucky (assuming there wasn't anything other than models to go on, i.e., no other evidence).  Only a math teacher could be this myopic.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

N00B said:


> True the run rate is extremely unlikely to remain constant, but with that time frame still being in respiratory illness season and a possible 3rd wave in store (each wave has increased, likely based on the baseline of possible carriers at onset) the net results may not be that dissimilar, before widespread availability of a vaccine.


If it follows the pattern of prior respiratory epidemics (which we have no proof to believe it will), the second wave is generally the worst.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> The Danish mask study correctly demonstrated that surgical masks on the receiving end reduce risk to the wearer by less than 50%.
> 
> Then, some fools on the internet misinterpreted the study to claim that masks do not work overall.
> 
> Do we need to go back to the study to remember what it does, and does not, say?  Or can we agree to stop misrepresenting the study?











						Opinion | Here's How to Think About the Danish Mask Study
					

What the DANMASK-19 trial showed and didn't show about mask use and COVID-19




					www.medpagetoday.com
				




I'll pull a page from your book and say I'll take the interpretation of an MD over a math teacher.


----------



## N00B (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Opinion | Here's How to Think About the Danish Mask Study
> 
> 
> What the DANMASK-19 trial showed and didn't show about mask use and COVID-19
> ...


Interesting read for an interpretation of a study.

Thanks for sharing.


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> L.A. County must show evidence for outdoor dining ban, judge orders
> 
> 
> A judge on Wednesday ordered Los Angeles County public health officials to show scientific evidence justifying the outdoor dining ban imposed last week amid soaring coronavirus cases.
> ...


Finally a judge doing their job. It’s a start.


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> If it follows the pattern of prior respiratory epidemics (which we have no proof to believe it will), the second wave is generally the worst.


Here is a lucid discussion of "waves" --  









						Explainer: What is a second wave of a pandemic, and has it arrived in the U.S.?
					

Infectious disease experts, economists and politicians have raised concerns about a second wave of coronavirus infections in the United States that could worsen in the coming months.




					www.reuters.com
				




"Dr. Eric Toner, a senior scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said he does not find “waves” to be an especially useful term in describing a pandemic."

The article was published in June, and predicts an increase in cases starting in October, so they got that about right.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Opinion | Here's How to Think About the Danish Mask Study
> 
> 
> What the DANMASK-19 trial showed and didn't show about mask use and COVID-19
> ...


You might want to actually read the article.

*"Was the trial underpowered?* The trial was powered to test its hypothesis of a 50% reduction in SARS-CoV-2 from mask wearing in a setting where the baseline risk was approximately 2%."

How, exactly, is that different from my claim that the study shows that any reduction in risk to the wearer is less than 50%?


----------



## dad4 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The extent to which you are delusional is you are actually arguing you rather have government policy based on a forecast that's wrong than one than none at all.  If you follow it logically the first is guaranteed to get you wrong results...in the 2nd you might actually get lucky (assuming there wasn't anything other than models to go on, i.e., no other evidence).  Only a math teacher could be this myopic.


Yet another ad hominem attack?

I must have made a good point.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

This is the most hilarious stay at home order that's just been issued for the city of Los Angeles.  It prohibits, under penalty of misdeamenor, leaving your house or traveling by foot, bike, public transport, car or scooter.  It then exempts the homeless.  It then exempts a long line of business activities.  Such business activities include hard ware stores, piercing shops, tanning shops, dog groomers, tattoo parlors, bike repair shops, taxis, and retail shops (at reduced capapcity)  It exempts outdoor worship (which is now clearly unconstitutional since this is the very scenario addressed in the SCOTUS case...they could have done a percentage cap but chose to ignore it).  It pretty much keeps the outdoor recreation sites open with a handful of tweaks here and there (sorry water poloers).  Of course film and TV production remain open.  Zoos are o.k.  Pro sports and day camps still allowed.  It would be funny if it weren't so sad.  Basically it's a plea to do the one thing they can't control: private socialization....and it takes them pages to do it.  History might very well record this as one of the most ludicrous documents to emerge from the pandemic.  Make sure to tell your kids they can't go outside scooting in the city of LA...they might get charged with a misdemeanor.




			https://www.lamayor.org/sites/g/files/wph446/f/page/file/20201202%20Mayor%20Public%20Order%20Targeted%20SAH%20Order_1.pdf


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You might want to actually read the article.
> 
> *"Was the trial underpowered?* The trial was powered to test its hypothesis of a 50% reduction in SARS-CoV-2 from mask wearing in a setting where the baseline risk was approximately 2%."
> 
> How, exactly, is that different from my claim that the study shows that any reduction in risk to the wearer is less than 50%?


When this is all over I'm happy to get together, have a beer and give you a reading comprehension tutorial.  But frankly there's no point in explaining someone else's work because if you don't get their work (an MD expert which you always ask for) much less you'll accept anything you say.  IHe even addresses your point verbatim but I'm too tired and don't care enough to annotate.  'll give you one thing you are free to take as a compliment or attack depending on how stable of a personality you are: dealing with you is easily more frustrating than dealing with EOTL, Espola, messi, or any of the other fringers of the left or right.

p.s. it's cute you engage in ad hominems and then complain about ad hominems.  no one is fooled by it.

p.p.s.  my pet theory is that you went into math because of your deficiencies in the verbal arts...it was more comfortable.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This is the most hilarious stay at home order that's just been issued for the city of Los Angeles.  It prohibits, under penalty of misdeamenor, leaving your house or traveling by foot, bike, public transport, car or scooter.  It then exempts the homeless.  It then exempts a long line of business activities.  Such business activities include hard ware stores, piercing shops, tanning shops, dog groomers, tattoo parlors, bike repair shops, taxis, and retail shops (at reduced capapcity)  It exempts outdoor worship (which is now clearly unconstitutional since this is the very scenario addressed in the SCOTUS case...they could have done a percentage cap but chose to ignore it).  It pretty much keeps the outdoor recreation sites open with a handful of tweaks here and there (sorry water poloers).  Of course film and TV production remain open.  Zoos are o.k.  Pro sports and day camps still allowed.  It would be funny if it weren't so sad.  Basically it's a plea to do the one thing they can't control: private socialization....and it takes them pages to do it.  History might very well record this as one of the most ludicrous documents to emerge from the pandemic.  Make sure to tell your kids they can't go outside scooting in the city of LA...they might get charged with a misdemeanor.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The most idiotic thing about this is remember they told us if places adopted mask ordinances such lockdowns wouldn't be necessary.  They even said masks were better than vaccines. The city of LA has had mask mandate 7 months going on 8.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> When this is all over I'm happy to get together, have a beer and give you a reading comprehension tutorial.  But frankly there's no point in explaining someone else's work because if you don't get their work (an MD expert which you always ask for) much less you'll accept anything you say.  IHe even addresses your point verbatim but I'm too tired and don't care enough to annotate.  'll give you one thing you are free to take as a compliment or attack depending on how stable of a personality you are: dealing with you is easily more frustrating than dealing with EOTL, Espola, messi, or any of the other fringers of the left or right.
> 
> p.s. it's cute you engage in ad hominems and then complain about ad hominems.  no one is fooled by it.
> 
> p.p.s.  my pet theory is that you went into math because of your deficiencies in the verbal arts...it was more comfortable.


1- I don't ask for MDs.  I ask for epidemiologists.  As before, the two are not the same.

2- your source agrees with me on what the study says.  It establishes an upper bound on benefit to the wearer.  That upper bound is 50%. 

If you want to cite a source to prove me wrong, you might want to pick an article which disagrees with me.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> 1- I don't ask for MDs.  I ask for epidemiologists.  As before, the two are not the same.
> 
> 2- your source agrees with me on what the study says.  It establishes an upper bound on benefit to the wearer.  That upper bound is 50%.
> 
> If you want to cite a source to prove me wrong, you might want to pick an article which disagrees with me.


it doesn’t go as far as you say it does. It takes a very good middle ground. When this is over happy to work on your reading comp issues face to face but not gonna fix them here over soccer forum. Don’t care about snapping you out of it enough.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> it doesn’t go as far as you say it does. It takes a very good middle ground. When this is over happy to work on your reading comp issues face to face but not gonna fix them here over soccer forum. Don’t care about snapping you out of it enough.


One more personal attack.

Zero quotes to prove your point.

Yawn.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> One more personal attack.
> 
> Zero quotes to prove your point.
> 
> Yawn.


 Not worth the effort to annotate with you. Go back and read it again.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 2, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Which projections do you like better?
> 
> Or would you prefer that we made policy without the use of projections?


Ok, I'll do something a little easier than beds that makes the same point. Experts: Joe Biden (JB) and CDC Director Robert Redfield (R)









						Biden Predicts 250,000 More Coronavirus Deaths, Urges Americans To Stay Home Over Holidays
					

You cannot be travelling during these holidays, as much as you want to,” the president-elect said.




					www.forbes.com
				




“We’re likely to lose another 250,000 people dead between now and January,” Biden said.

On Wednesday, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield projected 200,000 more coronavirus deaths in December.

Wait, what? 250,000 deaths in December? <opens calculator app on phone> That comes to an average of 8,064.5 deaths/day. How? At our peak this summer, we had a 7-day average of 2,232. Redfield comes in at 6451.6 deaths/day. Today was big at 2610. That less than a third of the AVERAGE that Biden predicts and barely 40% of what Redfield predicts. The current 7-day average is 1531. How do we get to those averages? Cases must be growing, big time, right?




Well, not exactly.




I can get that deaths/day will increase since deaths lag cases and we are in the midst of a steep increase. However, you can see that before the 7-day average case graph crosses 150,000 it is concave down. I'm guessing that little peak in cases just prior to Thanksgiving is the "extra" folks getting tested before they travel. I have a feeling it would be flatter and a better match with the cases after Thanksgiving that are lower as people didn't test Thanksgiving day and likely not as often in the following weekend (just a guess). To me, this looks like the peak is about now. This doesn't indicate to me a 4 to 5 fold increase in deaths is in the offing.

So, I looked at the state trends to see if anything there might indicate a significant near-term rise. The highest states in cases are all trending down. Only NY is growing and (barely) concave up. The west coast, north-east and mid-Atlantic have some states that are increasing a bit. Everything I see indicates a near term drop in cases. I just don't see how we get anywhere near those numbers as a daily average. I guess the "wildcard" is the Thanksgiving effect - which, so far, appears to be no effect at all. Maybe it's coming.

I'd go with a range of 60,000 - 70,000. 2000/day --> 62,000. Nothing I see indicates it should be much more than that. I guess we'll see. Let's hope I'm correct - 200,000, is a huge number.

Deaths in December:
JB: 250,000
R: 200,000
K: 62,000

And, finally, Grace and dad, knock it off or I'll tell the parents. I can't tell you how many times I heard that from my older brothers.


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> It exempts outdoor worship (which is now clearly unconstitutional since this is the very scenario addressed in the SCOTUS case..


No, it's not.


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Not worth the effort to annotate with you. Go back and read it again.


Weak.


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> When this is all over I'm happy to get together, have a beer and give you a reading comprehension tutorial.  But frankly there's no point in explaining someone else's work because if you don't get their work (an MD expert which you always ask for) much less you'll accept anything you say.  IHe even addresses your point verbatim but I'm too tired and don't care enough to annotate.  'll give you one thing you are free to take as a compliment or attack depending on how stable of a personality you are: dealing with you is easily more frustrating than dealing with EOTL, Espola, messi, or any of the other fringers of the left or right.
> 
> p.s. it's cute you engage in ad hominems and then complain about ad hominems.  no one is fooled by it.
> 
> p.p.s.  my pet theory is that you went into math because of your deficiencies in the verbal arts...it was more comfortable.


If you are not going to finish the argument, perhaps you shouldn't start it.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The most idiotic thing about this is remember they told us if places adopted mask ordinances such lockdowns wouldn't be necessary.  They even said masks were better than vaccines. The city of LA has had mask mandate 7 months going on 8.


They might have made walking your dog illegal. ^\_(;?)_/^


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> And, finally, Grace and dad, knock it off or I'll tell the parents. I can't tell you how many times I heard that from my older brothers.


“he started it!”


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

espola said:


> No, it's not.


SCOTUS was clear you can’t limit indoor worship (ie outdoor only) if you are going to treat this laundry list of things as essential.  They could do % ties like the other businesses but this is black letter exactly what they were talking about and unconstitutional


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

espola said:


> Weak.


Stupid


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

espola said:


> If you are not going to finish the argument, perhaps you shouldn't start it.


why would I care enough?  That implies I actually care to fix him. I don’t. Of all the people here I don’t.  To be honest I’d care more about either you (you occasionally make some good points) or eotl (respect)


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Stupid


Or that.


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> SCOTUS was clear you can’t limit indoor worship (ie outdoor only) if you are going to treat this laundry list of things as essential.  They could do % ties like the other businesses but this is black letter exactly what they were talking about and unconstitutional


Your objection is noted.


----------



## espola (Dec 2, 2020)

espola said:


> Your objection is noted.


1.  It was in NY,

2.  The SCOTUS text includes "single out houses of worship for especially harsh treatment."  That doesn't apply here.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 2, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This is the most hilarious stay at home order that's just been issued for the city of Los Angeles.  It prohibits, under penalty of misdeamenor, leaving your house or traveling by foot, bike, public transport, car or scooter.  It then exempts the homeless.  It then exempts a long line of business activities.  Such business activities include hard ware stores, piercing shops, tanning shops, dog groomers, tattoo parlors, bike repair shops, taxis, and retail shops (at reduced capapcity)  It exempts outdoor worship (which is now clearly unconstitutional since this is the very scenario addressed in the SCOTUS case...they could have done a percentage cap but chose to ignore it).  It pretty much keeps the outdoor recreation sites open with a handful of tweaks here and there (sorry water poloers).  Of course film and TV production remain open.  Zoos are o.k.  Pro sports and day camps still allowed.  It would be funny if it weren't so sad.  Basically it's a plea to do the one thing they can't control: private socialization....and it takes them pages to do it.  History might very well record this as one of the most ludicrous documents to emerge from the pandemic.  Make sure to tell your kids they can't go outside scooting in the city of LA...they might get charged with a misdemeanor.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


To enhance the effectiveness of the message, they should deliver it in email form to all constituents from a Nigerian Prince asking for their help. That works every time.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 2, 2020)

espola said:


> 1.  It was in NY,
> 
> 2.  The SCOTUS text includes "single out houses of worship for especially harsh treatment."  That doesn't apply here.


Errrr.  Common law operates on the basis of precedents. Precedents can operate as black letter, analogy or persuasive. This is black letter....exactly the same situation with a laundry list of exceptions but not for houses of worship which is nonessential.  To enforce a house of worship would have to sue. The lower court is bound to uphold the precedent. If they don’t it’s reversible error that will be overturned by a higher court.  

If I were going to make the argument to distinguish id make the especially harsh treatment language you cited.  Your understanding is basic but you missed your calling (shoulda been a lawyer...it takes a certain not normal personality as well...you might a been gifted).  NY was caught making a lot of harsh statements. But the pc doesn’t rest on that. Another argument might be widespread access to outdoor services but unless la city is handing out park permits for these that’s pretty hard to argue too.


----------



## espola (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Errrr.  Common law operates on the basis of precedents. Precedents can operate as black letter, analogy or persuasive. This is black letter....exactly the same situation with a laundry list of exceptions but not for houses of worship which is nonessential.  To enforce a house of worship would have to sue. The lower court is bound to uphold the precedent. If they don’t it’s reversible error that will be overturned by a higher court.
> 
> If I were going to make the argument to distinguish id make the especially harsh treatment language you cited.  Your understanding is basic but you missed your calling (shoulda been a lawyer...it takes a certain not normal personality as well...you might a been gifted).  NY was caught making a lot of harsh statements. But the pc doesn’t rest on that. Another argument might be widespread access to outdoor services but unless la city is handing out park permits for these that’s pretty hard to argue too.


You can ignore the differences for the sake of argument, but that won't make them go away.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I'd prefer they fix the projections, but every time team reality has attempted to do that they've been attacked as heretics.  Building government policy time after time on bad projections is not good governance.  So yes, given the choices we're left with, I'd prefer we made policy without the use of projections.  I know...I know...shocking and inconceivable to a math teacher divorced from practical applications in the real world.  Bad math is worse than no math.


One needs to acknowledge what criteria the projections were based on to get a realistic analysis. Making up ones own criteria to judge the projections on is simply spin.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> You can ignore the differences for the sake of argument, but that won't make them go away.


That’s not how these things operate legally. It’s almost the exact situation.  Since it was a pc if it wasn’t nearly identical this argument would be persuasive but it wasn’t. The only real differences are: 1. A lack of negative statements re worship, 2. Dining is closed and 3. Protests outside are subject to social distancing rules (which if the government doesnt enforce or give worship equal access will cause other problem). It’s why the county order is different


----------



## watfly (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This is the most hilarious stay at home order that's just been issued for the city of Los Angeles.  It prohibits, under penalty of misdeamenor, leaving your house or traveling by foot, bike, public transport, car or scooter.  It then exempts the homeless.  It then exempts a long line of business activities.  Such business activities include hard ware stores, piercing shops, tanning shops, dog groomers, tattoo parlors, bike repair shops, taxis, and retail shops (at reduced capapcity)  It exempts outdoor worship (which is now clearly unconstitutional since this is the very scenario addressed in the SCOTUS case...they could have done a percentage cap but chose to ignore it).  It pretty much keeps the outdoor recreation sites open with a handful of tweaks here and there (sorry water poloers).  Of course film and TV production remain open.  Zoos are o.k.  Pro sports and day camps still allowed.  It would be funny if it weren't so sad.  Basically it's a plea to do the one thing they can't control: private socialization....and it takes them pages to do it.  History might very well record this as one of the most ludicrous documents to emerge from the pandemic.  Make sure to tell your kids they can't go outside scooting in the city of LA...they might get charged with a misdemeanor.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Webster's word of the year is "pandemic".  California's word of the year should be "arbitrary".

My daughter's dance studio served with a cease and desist and closed.  Strip clubs open.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 3, 2020)

watfly said:


> Webster's word of the year is "pandemic".  California's word of the year should be "arbitrary".
> 
> My daughter's dance studio served with a cease and desist and closed.  Strip clubs open.


More policy that ignores children's welfare coming out of CA. Is it any wonder that SF has a dearth of children and an excess of things we want our children to avoid?


----------



## espola (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> That’s not how these things operate legally. It’s almost the exact situation.  Since it was a pc if it wasn’t nearly identical this argument would be persuasive but it wasn’t. The only real differences are: 1. A lack of negative statements re worship, 2. Dining is closed and 3. Protests outside are subject to social distancing rules (which if the government doesnt enforce or give worship equal access will cause other problem). It’s why the county order is different


In order to use the NY SCOTUS decision as precedent, one must show that the two situations are equivalent.  Just because both mention churches is not enough.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> In order to use the NY SCOTUS decision as precedent, one must show that the two situations are equivalent.  Just because both mention churches is not enough.


Stupid.

And just after I paid you a compliement no less.....


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

watfly said:


> Webster's word of the year is "pandemic".  California's word of the year should be "arbitrary".
> 
> My daughter's dance studio served with a cease and desist and closed.  Strip clubs open.


Strip clubs are not dance establishments.  They are bars which happen to have naked women exercising their first amendment right to free speech.

I agree that strips clubs should be closed, but you can’t do that without also closing the rest of the bars.

If the strip clubs are open but banned from serving food and drink, then it gets more interesting.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Texas and California have almost identical per cap curves despite different gov policies


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334490648225910785
Meanwhile here's the vaccination cards that will be issued.  Hope they don't expect people to keep those somewhere safe to board a bus or go in a store.  Most people can't even hold onto their Starbucks reward cards.  After a few days in my purse that thing is trashed.  Shouldn't there be an app for tha?









						Vaccination cards will be issued to everyone getting Covid-19 vaccine, health officials say | CNN
					

The cards will be sent out as part of vaccination kits from Operation Warp Speed, according to a photo caption accompanying the image.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## watfly (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> They are bars which happen to have naked women exercising their first amendment right to free speech.


Well they got a judge to believe that but c'mon now.  Explain to me how my daughter dancing (for no compensation) is not free speech and a nude dancer (for compensation) is free speech.  Actually don't explain, my mind is numb already.

Furthermore, your wrong on the bar part.  Full nude establishments are prohibited from selling alcohol and typically don't serve food, or so I was told   .

Again, arbitrary and discriminatory despite your mental gymnastic machinations.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Texas and California have almost identical per cap curves despite different gov policies
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334490648225910785


The curves are the same shape, but the red line is significantly higher.  Total area under the curve is about 1/3 higher.  Deaths are about 50% hogher.

If anything, it’s a good argument for masks.  Texas has kept a lot of things open, but they have had a statewide mask mandate since July 3.  Maybe masks are the solution to everything, after all.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Meanwhile here's the vaccination cards that will be issued. Hope they don't expect people to keep those somewhere safe to board a bus or go in a store. Most people can't even hold onto their Starbucks reward cards. After a few days in my purse that thing is trashed. Shouldn't there be an app for tha?


Just claim you don't need a card and shouldn't be required to show one. 

That I believe is the argument used by one party as it relates to voting.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

I bet these school districts are doing a great job with their online education right now.

_"Several years ago, Project Baltimore began an investigation of Baltimore’s school system. What it found was an utter disgrace.

In 19 of Baltimore’s 39 high schools, out of 3,804 students, only 14 of them, or less than 1%, were proficient in math.

In 13 of Baltimore’s high schools, not a single student scored proficient in math.

In five Baltimore City high schools, not a single student scored proficient in math or reading.

Despite these academic deficiencies, about 70% of the students graduate and are conferred a high school diploma—a fraudulent high school diploma.

The Detroit Public Schools Community District scored the lowest in the nation compared to 26 other urban districts for reading and mathematics at the fourth- and eighth-grade levels.

A recent video captures some of this miseducation in Milwaukee high schools: In two city high schools, only one student tested proficient in math and none are proficient in English.

Yet, the schools spent a full week learning about “systemic racism” and “Black Lives Matter activism.”_


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> The curves are the same shape, but the red line is significantly higher.  Total area under the curve is about 1/3 higher.  Deaths are about 50% hogher.
> 
> If anything, it’s a good argument for masks.  Texas has kept a lot of things open, but they have had a statewide mask mandate since July 3.  Maybe masks are the solution to everything, after all.


Being disinegenous again.  If anything, it stands for the proposition that with all the restrictions on schools, youth sports, worship, businesses, and masks, this is the best that those restrictions do, for all the costs (notably on kids) imposed by California.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Being disinegenous again.  If anything, it stands for the proposition that with all the restrictions on schools, youth sports, worship, businesses, and masks, this is the best that those restrictions do, for all the costs (notably on kids) imposed by California.


What?  It is disingenuous to actually look up the area under a curve instead of handwaving about the shape?  Those two curves appear similar, but one has 4/3 the area of the other.  

You need to leave masks off your list of complaints.  Texas has them too.  If your image says anything, it says that business and school closures are less important than masks.   _That_ would be an interesting conversation, but that’s not the axe you want to grind.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Just claim you don't need a card and shouldn't be required to show one.
> 
> That I believe is the argument used by one party as it relates to voting.


Or, get your vaccine when it’s your turn, and stop complaining about stupid little things like a card.

We have a world wide depression and a pandemic with over a million and a half people dead, and you’re worried that you might have to carry a piece of paper for 3 months.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Or, get your vaccine when it’s your turn, and stop complaining about stupid little things like a card.
> 
> We have a world wide depression and a pandemic with over a million and a half people dead, and you’re worried that you might have to carry a piece of paper for 3 months.


I am wondering why I should take a vaccine when my risk factor is minimal.

And as I look at my kids it is NON EXISTENT.

You on the other hand seem to like every rule put out by government and willingly follow along.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Strip clubs are not dance establishments.  They are bars which happen to have naked women exercising their first amendment right to free speech.
> 
> I agree that strips clubs should be closed, but you can’t do that without also closing the rest of the bars.
> 
> If the strip clubs are open but banned from serving food and drink, then it gets more interesting.


Places that serve alcohol with on site parking, for vehicles the patrons will drive away in, should go the way of the horse and buggy.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> for 3 months.


That's funny.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Or, get your vaccine when it’s your turn, and stop complaining about stupid little things like a card.
> 
> We have a world wide depression and a pandemic with over a million and a half people dead, and you’re worried that you might have to carry a piece of paper for 3 months.


Those like DH are afraid of many things, keeping track of a piece of paper now added to the long extensive list.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Those like DH are afraid of many things, keeping track of a piece of paper now added to the long extensive list.


Not afraid. 

I for one however like the concept of freedom and choice. And when one looks at the data and who is at risk the choice is even clearer. 

If you are scared, by all means get the vaccine.

If as they say the vaccines are 90-94% effective, have the people actually at risk take the vaccine if they want it.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Angry parents won’t let officials slide over closed playgrounds, packed malls
					

For many parents confounded by an array of official dictates, closing playgrounds crossed a line in the sandbox.




					www.latimes.com
				




They've even lost Nate Silver


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334558695720673284


----------



## watfly (Dec 3, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> I am wondering why I should take a vaccine when my risk factor is minimal.
> 
> And as I look at my kids it is NON EXISTENT.
> 
> You on the other hand seem to like every rule put out by government and willingly follow along.


Agree with your Dad4 comment, but disagree with you vaccine position.

Amongst all the arbitrary, window dressing, non-science based and purely political restrictions and rules, getting a vaccination is something that would substantively mitigate the pandemic.  When my turn comes I will get a vaccine.  Although there is precedent for doing so, I'm not sure how comfortable I would be with the government mandating it, but I have no problem with schools, airlines, or any other organization requiring it as a condition of participation.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

watfly said:


> Agree with your Dad4 comment, but disagree with you vaccine position.
> 
> Amongst all the arbitrary, window dressing, non-science based and purely political restrictions and rules, getting a vaccination is something that would substantively mitigate the pandemic.  When my turn comes I will get a vaccine.  Although there is precedent for doing so, I'm not sure how comfortable I would be with the government mandating it, but I have no problem with schools, airlines, or any other organization requiring it as a condition of participation.


I have concerns about the mRNA vaccines.  They may be fine but I'd like to wait...would take the traditional vaccines in a heartbeat but those would be available later.  Without more data, doubt I'd let my kid take the mRNA one.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Angry parents won’t let officials slide over closed playgrounds, packed malls
> 
> 
> For many parents confounded by an array of official dictates, closing playgrounds crossed a line in the sandbox.
> ...


Nate is a data guy, and the CA rules are largely skew to the actual data.  He wasn’t going to be in favor of the current form of the rules.

Don’t misinterpret that to mean he is in favor of ending all rules, North Dakota style.  That’s not his point.  Ending all covid rules would just be a different way to ignore the science.


----------



## watfly (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I have concerns about the mRNA vaccines.  They may be fine but I'd like to wait...would take the traditional vaccines in a heartbeat but those would be available later.  Without more data, doubt I'd let my kid take the mRNA one.


I likely missed your post regarding mRNA.  Can you explain your concerns again.

Maybe by the time the kids' turn comes there will be better options or more data.  One of my concerns with kids being last is that Newsom will use that as an excuse to not allow in-person school and youth sports until kids are vaccinated which could be well into the next school year.  My daughter will be a senior next year and if he F$%#s in any way with her senior year, I'm not sure what I will do.  For sure I will be a tall dog on our district.  I feel really sorry for HS Seniors from last year and this year.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

watfly said:


> I likely missed your post regarding mRNA.  Can you explain your concerns again.
> 
> Maybe by the time the kids' turn comes there will be better options or more data.  One of my concerns with kids being last is that Newsom will use that as an excuse to not allow in-person school and youth sports until kids are vaccinated which could be well into the next school year.  My daughter will be a senior next year and if he F$%#s in any way with her senior year, I'm not sure what I will do.  For sure I will be a tall dog on our district.  I feel really sorry for HS Seniors from last year and this year.


The technique is new (which is why they were able to deploy first).  Long term effects have not been therefore studied.  It's probably o.k.  Probably is o.k. for me (my life is probably 1/2 over) not o.k. for my kid who is at no risk for this thing.  I know some medical professionals too which have expressed the same view....not I won't ever take it....but I need to read and to hear more.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The technique is new (which is why they were able to deploy first).  Long term effects have not been therefore studied.  It's probably o.k.  Probably is o.k. for me (my life is probably 1/2 over) not o.k. for my kid who is at no risk for this thing.  I know some medical professionals too which have expressed the same view....not I won't ever take it....but I need to read and to hear more.


I would assume that, by the time kids are allowed to get a covid vaccine, there will be some traditional vaccines on the market.

Mostly from China, I think.   Which brings up China’s ability properly regulate their vaccine industry.  After all, we got here because of China’s inability to properly regulate their food safety.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

Be careful where you fart 









						Can farts spread COVID-19? This Australian researcher claims so! - Times of India
					

If you thought farts could just stink, think again. A new body of research suggests that farts might be the newest form of transmission to spread the




					timesofindia.indiatimes.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

This sounds like the way a lot of places come up with covid policies.

"The San Francisco Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to ban smoking in apartment buildings—but made an exception for marijuana, the _San Francisco Chronicle_ reported. "









						San Francisco Bans Smoking Tobacco in Apartments—but Allows Weed - Washington Free Beacon
					

The San Francisco Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to ban smoking in apartment buildings—but made an exception for marijuana, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.




					freebeacon.com


----------



## watfly (Dec 3, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> This sounds like the way a lot of places come up with covid policies.
> 
> "The San Francisco Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to ban smoking in apartment buildings—but made an exception for marijuana, the _San Francisco Chronicle_ reported. "
> 
> ...


Funny part is they must of been smoking crack when they voted.  One of my tenants tried to pull that on me...claim that the no smoking clause in the lease means cigarette smoking and doesn't apply to pot.  I probably would have lost in court in California had he not voluntarily complied.


----------



## N00B (Dec 3, 2020)

__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




Looks like we’ll get an update at 12:30.  Inside sources indicate that ICUs will be the the guiding metric for ‘deep purple’ stay at home orders.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Be careful where you fart
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So that's why masks haven't been working!!!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 3, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Not afraid.
> 
> I for one however like the concept of freedom and choice. And when one looks at the data and who is at risk the choice is even clearer.
> 
> ...


So you are only concerned about yourself personally? That kind of thinking is why we are where we are.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Strip clubs are not dance establishments.  They are bars which happen to have naked women exercising their first amendment right to free speech.
> 
> I agree that strips clubs should be closed, but you can’t do that without also closing the rest of the bars.
> 
> If the strip clubs are open but banned from serving food and drink, then it gets more interesting.


"I don't dance, I make money moves"


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 3, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So you are only concerned about yourself personally? That kind of thinking is why we are where we are.


No...I’m more worried about things like this that are becoming more and more common:









						11-year-old dies after shooting during Zoom class in San Joaquin County
					

A student has died after a self-inflicted gunshot wound during a Zoom distance learning class Wednesday, officials said.




					www.kcra.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 3, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> This sounds like the way a lot of places come up with covid policies.
> 
> "The San Francisco Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to ban smoking in apartment buildings—but made an exception for marijuana, the _San Francisco Chronicle_ reported. "
> 
> ...


Medicated constituents are pliable.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So you are only concerned about yourself personally? That kind of thinking is why we are where we are.


Really? Look around the world amigo.

Take special notice of Europe who many here including you I believe said were doing it the right way.

Various governments have taken different approaches. And yet we see that everywhere pretty much in the N Hemisphere is experiencing spikes. So what would anyone or any gov have done any differently that would have changed were we are today?

I know some stuff that would have been less selfish. I will start with a couple.

- allowing kids to be in school in person
- allowing people to make a living

The vaccines are claimed to be 90+% effective. Fantastic. We also know who is at risk. Fantastic. Give it to the at risk population and you have solved the problem.

And at the same time we can then we can watch what happens when 100s of millions of people take a new vaccine and see if there is any real concern with side effects. Follow the data and go from there. 

If I were in a risk category and concerned I would take the vaccine. The reality is my risk factor is rather minimal. For my kids it is non existent. 

More disconcerting is hearing people like Fauci state now that even with a vaccine they want to continue social distancing and masks for the coming years. Screw that.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

And I am sure @dad4 is a big supporter of the latest announcement from up on high. He still gets to have TAKEOUT. 

_Newsom will divide the state into five geographic regions and *lockdowns would last for three weeks minimum*, based on the briefing. *Residents would be unable to gather, while playgrounds, salons and restaurant dining would have to close*. Food takeout would still be allowed, while hotels could only open for critical infrastructure support._

These stay at home orders worked so well the first time around that you get to do it again.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

For purple plus restrictions announced.  The biggest things are bars and restaurants closed for take out only (LA County took care of that), no personal services (hope you all got your haircuts), playgrounds closed (easy target)


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> For purple plus restrictions announced.  The biggest things are bars and restaurants closed for take out only (LA County took care of that), no personal services (hope you all got your haircuts), playgrounds closed (easy target)


The other thing is with supermarkets restricted lines are likely at the supermarket.  Hope you all stocked up on toilet paper.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> hope you all got your haircuts


No worries. Just get yourself a flowbee. We have all seen the late night commercials. Cutting hair with the help of a vacuum cleaner just works.





__





						Flowbee Factory Direct | Home Haircutting System
					






					flowbee.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Hope you all stocked up on toilet paper.


Just go back to the good ole days.

Before good old Charmin ever existed, everyone was sitting on the loo without an extra roll in sight. So what did they use? Back then in way back time, people would use leaves, moss, a rag or hay. How civilized. If you were affluent, you had the luxury of wiping your bottom with lamb’s wool.









						11 Facts About Medieval Hygiene that Will make You Thankful for the Modern Bathroom
					

Medieval Bathrooms lacked many of the common amenities of modern bathrooms but you will be surprised about some of the most common practices. Ode to the loo




					www.tradewindsimports.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Apparently its all triggered by ICU capacity which actually makes sense for a change....we're not there yet.  get your haircuts while you can.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Apparently its all triggered by ICU capacity which actually makes sense for a change....we're not there yet.  get your haircuts while you can.



Haha.   Desert and mountain area got stuck in our region.  They are so f'ed........


----------



## watfly (Dec 3, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> No...I’m more worried about things like this that are becoming more and more common:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


11 years old...so tragic and possibly avoidable.



Desert Hound said:


> And I am sure @dad4 is a big supporter of the latest announcement from up on high. He still gets to have TAKEOUT.
> 
> _Newsom will divide the state into five geographic regions and *lockdowns would last for three weeks minimum*, based on the briefing. *Residents would be unable to gather, while playgrounds, salons and restaurant dining would have to close*. Food takeout would still be allowed, while hotels could only open for critical infrastructure support._
> 
> These stay at home orders worked so well the first time around that you get to do it again.


King of goalpost moving.  The guy has zero credibility, no wonder most people ignore his token mandates.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

More bad news.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334605480249991169


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> More bad news.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334605480249991169


It is a monumental task to be able to produce something new and on the scale being demanded. They will figure it out, but there will be bumps along the way.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Wow looks like Christmas (let alone Surf Cup) is canceled with the nonessential travel ban.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Wow looks like Christmas (let alone Surf Cup) is canceled with the nonessential travel ban.


I think it is essential to see family and friends over the holidays. We only have so many circuits around the Sun.


----------



## watfly (Dec 3, 2020)

If you look at Newsom's pandemic response through a Covid only lens and are in favor of blanket restrictions (like some people here still cling to), isn't Newsom's continued goal post moving absolute evidence of his abject failure in combating the virus? 

If I look at his health policy decisions in isolation I would give him a C for his Covid response because I believe he has very little control over the virus.  I wouldn't give him an F because he didn't pull a Coumo/Murphy, but I can't give him a higher grade because many of his restrictions weren't credible which diluted the effectiveness of credible precautions.  I'd give him a D on his economic health policy decisions.  Some businesses are still thriving but he's nearly killed some industries or sent them on an insane roller coaster ride.  For his education and youth health policy decisions, he hasn't even shown up to class or turned in any assignments so he gets a solid F.  His overall health policy grade is an F because I have to give more weight to the damage he has done to our children.


----------



## watfly (Dec 3, 2020)

Damn he really moved the goalposts this time.  SD should never be lumped together with LA for anything.  That's why we have Camp Pendleton...to keep us separated.









						Governor to shutter businesses, limit activities as case rates surge
					

Tighter set of shut-down orders linked to remaining community hospital bed availability




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com
				




_But the latest numbers, shared in San Diego County’s daily COVID-19 update Wednesday, show that the region is likely to be put into a more-restrictive lockdown even though its intensive care remains significantly more favorable than Southern California’s.

At the moment, San Diego County comes nowhere close to meeting that threshold. As of Tuesday, 539 of 853 local intensive care beds were occupied, 38 percent of them by COVID-19 patients.

However, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a new plan Thursday that lumps San Diego in with 10 other counties, many of which have significantly less bed availability than San Diego does. For example, Los Angeles County, according to a report from Health Services Los Angeles County, currently has 86 available staffed adult ICU beds compared to 315 in San Diego._


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

watfly said:


> Damn he really moved the goalposts this time.  SD should never be lumped together with LA for anything.  That's why we have Camp Pendleton...to keep us separated.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Think how San Luis Obispo, Inyo and Mono feel.  IIRC one of those 3 is still red.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Here's my headscratcher: Newsom's decided to close playgrounds (and zoos) but the ski resorts are open?  But at the same time overnight campgrounds would be shuttered (so no RVs) and hotels would be limited and nonessential travel banned.  So you can go to a ski resort if you live near one in driving distance?  Does Newsom (or one of his health directors) have some sort of holiday cabin we're unaware of and they want to bunker down in for the winter and want to avoid a French laundry accusation of hypocrisy?


----------



## watfly (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Here's my headscratcher: Newsom's decided to close playgrounds (and zoos) but the ski resorts are open?  But at the same time overnight campgrounds would be shuttered (so no RVs) and hotels would be limited and nonessential travel banned.  So you can go to a ski resort if you live near one in driving distance?  Does Newsom (or one of his health directors) have some sort of holiday cabin we're unaware of and they want to bunker down in for the winter and want to avoid a French laundry accusation of hypocrisy?


I love science, its so fascinating how it works in 2020.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Here's my headscratcher: Newsom's decided to close playgrounds (and zoos) but the ski resorts are open?  But at the same time overnight campgrounds would be shuttered (so no RVs) and hotels would be limited and nonessential travel banned.  So you can go to a ski resort if you live near one in driving distance?  Does Newsom (or one of his health directors) have some sort of holiday cabin we're unaware of and they want to bunker down in for the winter and want to avoid a French laundry accusation of hypocrisy?


Didn’t he also have a slide where he encouraged people to go to parks, go to beaches and even one that said “go utilize outdoor gyms” to help with mental health concerns?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

Bad news day keeps getting worse.  Biden has asked Fauci to serve as chief medical officer.  National lockdown (and resulting conflict it would bring) just took a step closer out of the realm of impossibility.









						Biden asked Fauci to serve as chief medical adviser
					

President-elect Joe Biden on Thursday asked Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, to serve as his chief medical adviser. Biden told CNN’s Jake Tapper in …




					thehill.com


----------



## espola (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Bad news day keeps getting worse.  Biden has asked Fauci to serve as chief medical officer.  National lockdown (and resulting conflict it would bring) just took a step closer out of the realm of impossibility.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Rational people see this as a good thing.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> Rational people see this as a good thing.


Stupid.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Here's my headscratcher: Newsom's decided to close playgrounds (and zoos) but the ski resorts are open?  But at the same time overnight campgrounds would be shuttered (so no RVs) and hotels would be limited and nonessential travel banned.  So you can go to a ski resort if you live near one in driving distance?  Does Newsom (or one of his health directors) have some sort of holiday cabin we're unaware of and they want to bunker down in for the winter and want to avoid a French laundry accusation of hypocrisy?


You might want to post a link for that claim about Newsom closing playgrounds.  Are you talking about March?

I watched the whole news conference today and did not hear anything about a decision to close playgrounds.

Current guidance on the state web site says nothing about closing them, either.





__





						Outdoor Playgrounds and other Outdoor Recreational Facilities
					






					www.cdph.ca.gov
				




It is far too specific, but I don't see a single word there about closures.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You might want to post a link for that claim about Newsom closing playgrounds.  Are you talking about March?
> 
> I watched the whole news conference today and did not hear anything about a decision to close playgrounds.
> 
> ...


It's in the summary run by the local paper.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334610657476395008
BTW....hope all the OC peep out there are o.k.  Hearing the news about the fires.  To top off a horrible news day.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You might want to post a link for that claim about Newsom closing playgrounds.  Are you talking about March?
> 
> I watched the whole news conference today and did not hear anything about a decision to close playgrounds.
> 
> ...


It was hard to find it but if you dig on the state site link click on "What does Regional Stay At Home Order Do?"

I hope this means you'll finally admit you are wrong about something.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> It was hard to find it but if you dig on the state site link click on "What does Regional Stay At Home Order Do?"
> 
> I hope this means you'll finally admit you are wrong about something.


I was right that _I _couldn't find it!  

I can see why he wouldn't highlight it in the press conference.  It's a stupid decision.  

3 year olds playing outside are not even a medium size risk.  Parents chatting at the edges might be, but that's what masks are for.

At least they put bars, cardrooms, and dining on the list.  Those should have been closed months ago.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> You can ignore the differences for the sake of argument, but that won't make them go away.


Oh this is supersweat...on the same day I caught Dad being outright wrong and get to catch espola....maybe the day's not such a total burnout afterall









						Supreme Court grants California church's challenge to coronavirus restrictions
					

The high court ruled 5-4 last month that limiting houses of worship to 10 or 25 worshipers in parts of New York violated the First Amendment.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I was right that _I _couldn't find it!
> 
> I can see why he wouldn't highlight it in the press conference.  It's a stupid decision.
> 
> ...


The true idiocy of it all is that despite our disagreements, we actually agree on 90% of the policy prescriptions.  You're just 90% wrong on the reasoning.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The true idiocy of it all is that despite our disagreements, we actually agree on 90% of the policy prescriptions.  You're just 90% wrong on the reasoning.


I think we mostly disagree about the utility of masks.  That’s more a question of viewing them as PPE ( they stink ), or as a device to slow transmission (they do ok.)


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I think we mostly disagree about the utility of masks.  That’s more a question of viewing them as PPE ( they stink ), or as a device to slow transmission (they do ok.)



The reading comprehension always alludes you.  I said we agree on the policy prescription: which is people should wear masks.  We probably disagree on the edges (e.g. masks outside are stupid) but you indicated on a prior post you'd be happy to concede those points in return for a universal indoor mandate.  We do disagree on the utility, which is a different question, and one which the experiences around the world has shown you are wrong about.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Here's my headscratcher: Newsom's decided to close playgrounds (and zoos) but the ski resorts are open?  But at the same time overnight campgrounds would be shuttered (so no RVs) and hotels would be limited and nonessential travel banned.  So you can go to a ski resort if you live near one in driving distance?  Does Newsom (or one of his health directors) have some sort of holiday cabin we're unaware of and they want to bunker down in for the winter and want to avoid a French laundry accusation of hypocrisy?


This is too convoluted not to be something like that. Or, maybe these are the bans delivered by their Shutdown Ouija Board. Figures, CA got a board with a spirit that hates soccer.


----------



## espola (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Oh this is supersweat...on the same day I caught Dad being outright wrong and get to catch espola....maybe the day's not such a total burnout afterall
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"Catch espola" means what?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> "Catch espola" means what?


You said it was different, they say it wasn't.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The reading comprehension always alludes you.  I said we agree on the policy prescription: which is people should wear masks.  We probably disagree on the edges (e.g. masks outside are stupid) but you indicated on a prior post you'd be happy to concede those points in return for a universal indoor mandate.  We do disagree on the utility, which is a different question, and one which the experiences around the world has shown you are wrong about.


Your ”experiences around the world” argument tends to be cherry picking data after the fact.  For example, you don’t seem to like to include east asia in your data.  

I don’t mind being “proven” wrong by arguments that weak.  Besides, your most recent chart was a nice example of how much you can do with masks but without business closures.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This is the most hilarious stay at home order that's just been issued for the city of Los Angeles.  It prohibits, under penalty of misdeamenor, leaving your house or traveling by foot, bike, public transport, car or scooter.  It then exempts the homeless.  It then exempts a long line of business activities.  Such business activities include hard ware stores, piercing shops, tanning shops, dog groomers, tattoo parlors, bike repair shops, taxis, and retail shops (at reduced capapcity)  It exempts outdoor worship (which is now clearly unconstitutional since this is the very scenario addressed in the SCOTUS case...they could have done a percentage cap but chose to ignore it).  It pretty much keeps the outdoor recreation sites open with a handful of tweaks here and there (sorry water poloers).  Of course film and TV production remain open.  Zoos are o.k.  Pro sports and day camps still allowed.  It would be funny if it weren't so sad.  Basically it's a plea to do the one thing they can't control: private socialization....and it takes them pages to do it.  History might very well record this as one of the most ludicrous documents to emerge from the pandemic.  Make sure to tell your kids they can't go outside scooting in the city of LA...they might get charged with a misdemeanor.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This takes a bit of the bite out of the enforcement of the order.









						Some California sheriffs won't enforce Newsom curfew, LA to focus on "voluntary compliance"
					

At least four sheriffs of major counties in California say they will take a hands off approach in enforcing Governor Gavin Newsom's month-long COVID-19 curfew, which is set to begin in most of the state on Saturday




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## espola (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> You said it was different, they say it wasn't.


Neither of those statements is true.  I sad this -- "In order to use the NY SCOTUS decision as precedent, one must show that the two situations are equivalent. Just because both mention churches is not enough."  What's wrong with that?

As for the SCOTUS action today - they granted an expedited hearing.  There is no decision yet.  The NY decision included language that the churches were being dealt with more harshly than other similar, but non-religious, businesses.  Is that the case in the California restrictions?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Your ”experiences around the world” argument tends to be cherry picking data after the fact.  For example, you don’t seem to like to include east asia in your data.
> 
> I don’t mind being “proven” wrong by arguments that weak.  Besides, your most recent chart was a nice example of how much you can do with masks but without business closures.


You really want to relitigate this?  You have to throw out N Korea/China/Vietnam because of their governments fiddling with the numbers.  You have to throw out South Korea because of the vastly different policies.  That leaves us with Japan and the Phillipines (the latter of which has had a very vigorous mask mandate).  You know as well as I do that one of the theories floating around is the reason Asia is doing better is because of cross-immunity from other coronaviruses (which an anthropolgy paper I cited in the old COVID forum shows has been endemic in Asia since Han dynasty times).  Japan and the Phillipines is evidence of it....because the Phillipines had a history of much less trade with mainland China than Japan did (and IndoChina had much more trade with China than Japan which is also consistent with the results).  And then there's this....taken a look at how Japan is doing recently?......masks working really well in Japan apparently (and that's with an estimated count by 2 studies now before the current surge of maybe 40% antibody prevalence in Japan...Japanese testing, which has been a shambles, is only catching up now....people in Japan are coming down with it, they are just much more asymptomatic than Europe/the US).









						Japan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Japan Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				











						Philippines COVID: 2,836,868 Cases and 50,351 Deaths - Worldometer
					

Philippines Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				











						Experts suspect cross immunity explains Japan's low coronavirus death rate - The Mainichi
					

TOKYO -- Some experts say cross immunity is the reason for the low death rate among novel coronavirus patients in Japan and other parts of Asia compar




					mainichi.jp


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> Neither of those statements is true.  I sad this -- "In order to use the NY SCOTUS decision as precedent, one must show that the two situations are equivalent. Just because both mention churches is not enough."  What's wrong with that?
> 
> As for the SCOTUS action today - they granted an expedited hearing.  There is no decision yet.  The NY decision included language that the churches were being dealt with more harshly than other similar, but non-religious, businesses.  Is that the case in the California restrictions?


Reading comprehension...they didn't grant an expedited hearing.  They sent it back to the California courts with instructions to apply their instructions in the New York case.  They are slapping the lower courts down, telling them to do their homework over again because its got errors in it.


----------



## espola (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Reading comprehension...they didn't grant an expedited hearing.  They sent it back to the California courts with instructions to apply their instructions in the New York case.  They are slapping the lower courts down, telling them to do their homework over again because its got errors in it.


Quoting from the article you posted -- "sending a California church's challenge back to lower courts".

Perhaps you comprehend that differently than I do.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

espola said:


> Quoting from the article you posted -- "sending a California church's challenge back to lower courts".
> 
> Perhaps you comprehend that differently than I do.


Yeah with instructions.  Like I said, it's the equivalent of a kid turning in his homework to the teacher and the teacher sending it back telling him its wrong and to do it over and this time follow the instructions.  The Supreme Court could have also just let the situation stand (which would mean that either they agree with the California courts or felt it was sufficiently different they wanted to see how it played out and what arguments might arise).  This isn't that....this is you got it wrong, redo it.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> You really want to relitigate this?  You have to throw out N Korea/China/Vietnam because of their governments fiddling with the numbers.  You have to throw out South Korea because of the vastly different policies.  That leaves us with Japan and the Phillipines (the latter of which has had a very vigorous mask mandate).  You know as well as I do that one of the theories floating around is the reason Asia is doing better is because of cross-immunity from other coronaviruses (which an anthropolgy paper I cited in the old COVID forum shows has been endemic in Asia since Han dynasty times).  Japan and the Phillipines is evidence of it....because the Phillipines had a history of much less trade with mainland China than Japan did (and IndoChina had much more trade with China than Japan which is also consistent with the results).  And then there's this....taken a look at how Japan is doing recently?......masks working really well in Japan apparently (and that's with an estimated count by 2 studies now before the current surge of maybe 40% antibody prevalence in Japan...Japanese testing, which has been a shambles, is only catching up now....people in Japan are coming down with it, they are just much more asymptomatic than Europe/the US).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How many data points do you get to throw out because you find them inconvenient?  

You don't get to wait until you have the data and then ignore the parts that don't fit your narrative.  

So you wanted to ignore New Zealand and South Korea, because they are (effectively) islands.   Then now you want to include Philippines, which somehow does not qualify under the island exemption.

Cherry picking.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah with instructions.  Like I said, it's the equivalent of a kid turning in his homework to the teacher and the teacher sending it back telling him its wrong and to do it over and this time follow the instructions.  The Supreme Court could have also just let the situation stand (which would mean that either they agree with the California courts or felt it was sufficiently different they wanted to see how it played out and what arguments might arise).  This isn't that....this is you got it wrong, redo it.


More like your class gets a new teacher, except this one wants to teach creationism.  And yes, that new teacher will give you back your evolution essay and ask you to put some God in it.

It happens, but it doesn't mean the teacher is right.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> How many data points do you get to throw out because you find them inconvenient?
> 
> You don't get to wait until you have the data and then ignore the parts that don't fit your narrative.
> 
> ...



Not cherry picking.  Reasoning.  New Zealand got hit very late and to their credit effectively shut down their borders (remember when Trump partially tried to do that....New Zealand even left its own citizens stranded overseas until they could set up quarantine centers to get people back home off island).  South Korea has very different policy outcomes.  What I'm trying to do is filter out the circumstances to compare masks to masks.  Japan and the Phillipines are perfect....they have similar policies and similar mask usage, but a very different history of coronavirus exposure.

You just want to ignore everything that distrupts your image that something (anything) might work and might control it.  And the harder someone tries to tear that blue pill out of your hand, the tighter you clutch at it, crying for dear life.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> It happens, but it doesn't mean the teacher is right.


Coming from a math teacher this is really funny.  You've outdone yourself.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Not cherry picking.  Reasoning.  New Zealand got hit very late and to their credit effectively shut down their borders (remember when Trump partially tried to do that....New Zealand even left its own citizens stranded overseas until they could set up quarantine centers to get people back home off island).  South Korea has very different policy outcomes.  What I'm trying to do is filter out the circumstances to compare masks to masks.  Japan and the Phillipines are perfect....they have similar policies and similar mask usage, but a very different history of coronavirus exposure.
> 
> You just want to ignore everything that distrupts your image that something (anything) might work and might control it.  And the harder someone tries to tear that blue pill out of your hand, the tighter you clutch at it, crying for dear life.


Japan and Philippines might have a slightly different economy and culture.  

There are people who do this for a living, you know.  You might try listening to them.  They have certain tricks.  For example, they don't do paired country comparisons between rich elderly nations and impoverished youthful ones.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 3, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Coming from a math teacher this is really funny.  You've outdone yourself.


And, out comes the first personal attack of the night.  Drink!


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> And, out comes the first personal attack of the night.  Drink!


Why is being a math teacher a personal attack?  Do you really have such self loathing?


----------



## N00B (Dec 3, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Be careful where you fart
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There was a ‘albeit without clothes’ statement in the article, not sure how they adjusted for that... it is interesting nonetheless.

I’ve always thought that restrooms pose the greatest issue due to lack of ventilation in an enclosed space for open businesses (restaurants, gas stations, hotels, etc.) and avoid them, but if you can smell it, through a mask and the pants of she who dealt it... how can you not receive arisolized particles from former visitors to the restroom, even if it’s not the flatulence, but their presence in the same enclosed space?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 3, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Japan and Philippines might have a slightly different economy and culture.
> 
> There are people who do this for a living, you know.  You might try listening to them.  They have certain tricks.  For example, they don't do paired country comparisons between rich elderly nations and impoverished youthful ones.


I'm one of them.  Comps are one of my things.  You are right there is a difference in culture but that's true of any country (in fact, it's part of your point....if your point is we should all have Asian culture good luck with that and you are culturally appropriating too as a bonus).  You have a good point of the economics, but I can flip that around on you...my entire argument is Asia is different so you can't compare government policies there to those here.....oooopppppssss!!!!


----------



## crush (Dec 4, 2020)




----------



## crush (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I'm one of them.  Comps are one of my things.  You are right there is a difference in culture but that's true of any country (in fact, it's part of your point....if your point is we should all have Asian culture good luck with that and you are culturally appropriating too as a bonus).  You have a good point of the economics, but I can flip that around on you...my entire argument is Asia is different so you can't compare government policies there to those here.....oooopppppssss!!!!


I love our Melting Pot in da states.  It's what makes our country so beautiful and unique and one I will help defend.  The *United *States of America. One Nation *under God. * That's how it was started.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

O.k. so here's a critique about the way to think about the metrics behind Newsom's order.  The good thing is that its finally tied to an actual meaningful metric (which is ICU capacity).  The bad news that ICUs never run empty.  Hospitals don't sit around having ICU beds and staff free waiting there for people to come in because that would lose money.  They do have "surge"capacity, but that capacity is limited because you can't suddenly retrain staff to do jobs overnight....you can take them from other areas of the hospital but you can't just go out into the streets and annoint people into nurses.  And at this time of year, in Los Angeles at least, they run at least 80% staffed because people just get more sick (with a variety of ailments and not just respiratory diseases) in the winter.  So it doesn't take an awful lot to capsize the boat.  It's why in a typical bad flu season you'd see that surge capacity go into effect, and hospitals putting up tents in the parking lots.  IHere's a good article in the local paper about why counting this metric is challenging.  It also raises the question of the federal/state/local governments/hospitals knew this was coming months ago so why is it a problem all of a sudden now?









						State, county in talks over ICU benchmark
					

One of the six requirements for counties to get off the state’s COVID monitoring list and reopen is the ability to demonstrate that they have a sufficient num




					www.toacorn.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

outrageous if true









						FDA Career Staff Are Delaying the Vaccine As Thousands of Americans Die
					

We’ve gone from ‘Operation Warp Speed’ to develop a vaccine to ‘Operation Turtle Speed’ to review It.




					thedispatch.com


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I'm one of them.  Comps are one of my things.  You are right there is a difference in culture but that's true of any country (in fact, it's part of your point....if your point is we should all have Asian culture good luck with that and you are culturally appropriating too as a bonus).  You have a good point of the economics, but I can flip that around on you...my entire argument is Asia is different so you can't compare government policies there to those here.....oooopppppssss!!!!


You’re one of them?  Really?

Where is your epidemiology degree from?  Which university or health department do you work for?

Send us links to some of your published papers.

Or, as was said before, Grace, you are not an epidemiologist.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

A couple of comments from 


dad4 said:


> You’re one of them?  Really?
> 
> Where is your epidemiology degree from?  Which university or health department do you work for?
> 
> ...


Reading comprehension.  Your issue was about working with comps.  I work with comps.   I do it day in and day out. Epidemiologists do not work with comps.  Comps are inexact tools for approximation, which is why their usefulness is limited.  Which  is why the argument "masks work in Asia" isn't very useful.


----------



## watfly (Dec 4, 2020)

Fauci "mispeaks" again and has to walk back another opinion.









						Fauci apologizes for casting doubt over UK's approval of Pfizer vaccine
					

Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious diseases expert, apologized on Thursday after casting doubt over the rigor of the British regulators who approved the Pfizer vaccine against COVID-19 and said he had faith in their work.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Why is being a math teacher a personal attack?  Do you really have such self loathing?


I used to be a math teacher. That was one of the nicer things I was called during that time.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 4, 2020)

watfly said:


> Fauci "mispeaks" again and has to walk back another opinion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Can any of these guys get out of their own way?


----------



## watfly (Dec 4, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Can any of these guys get out of their own way?


I've defended Fauci and felt he has been operating in good faith, but now I'm beginning to wonder and leaning more to GraceT's opinion of him.  Ultimately, that's on Trump.  He should have taken Fauci to the woodshed privately (not on twitter) on his mixed messaging months ago.  Fauci in front of Congress would always respond that's a political question and refuse to answer.  Then he goes on the TV shows and gives opinions with political ramifications.  Personally, I felt Birx was way more circumspect.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 4, 2020)

espola said:


> Rational people see this as a good thing.


The worlds leading authority? No brainer, ironically exactly what trump and his cult are, no brainers.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

watfly said:


> I've defended Fauci and felt he has been operating in good faith, but now I'm beginning to wonder and leaning more to GraceT's opinion of him.  Ultimately, that's on Trump.  He should have taken Fauci to the woodshed privately (not on twitter) on his mixed messaging months ago.  Fauci in front of Congress would always respond that's a political question and refuse to answer.  Then he goes on the TV shows and gives opinions with political ramifications.  Personally, I felt Birx was way more circumspect.


I liked Birx.  She's also a pro lockdowner but is much more circumspect and careful than Fauci.  I still think Fauci is pretty much operating on good faith.  It's just he has a limited ability to view his biases (heavily towards his areas of expertise whether it's vaccines or purely the health numbers to the exclusion of other things) and I think it was kicking who said he's just a disaster on the PR aspect of his job.  

It was Trump's fault for elevating him, yes.  But as a career bureaucrat there is little Trump could do to fire him without setting off another constitutional crisis.  It's been rumored he was close, but was pursuaded not to since it would backfire in the election.  Fat lot it did him.


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Dec 4, 2020)

watfly said:


> Fauci "mispeaks" again and has to walk back another opinion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I stopped trusting his opinions months ago. He seems to love the limelight this pandemic has given him. This along with his political leanings have clouded his judgement and created an ego he must feed each Sunday when he joins the morning shows and spouts off what he believes that week.


----------



## watfly (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I liked Birx.  She's also a pro lockdowner but is much more circumspect and careful than Fauci.  I still think Fauci is pretty much operating on good faith.  It's just he has a limited ability to view his biases (heavily towards his areas of expertise whether it's vaccines or purely the health numbers to the exclusion of other things) and I think it was kicking who said he's just a disaster on the PR aspect of his job.
> 
> It was Trump's fault for elevating him, yes.  But as a career bureaucrat there is little Trump could do to fire him without setting off another constitutional crisis.  It's been rumored he was close, but was pursuaded not to since it would backfire in the election.  Fat lot it did him.


She was pro lockdown but on a micro level.  I can't recall the term she used for it, but it was on an individual county by county basis.  I don't remember her making broad sweeping generalizations like Fauci does.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

watfly said:


> She was pro lockdown but on a micro level.  I can't recall the term she used for it, but it was on an individual county by county basis.  I don't remember her making broad sweeping generalizations like Fauci does.


Biden isn't exactly off to a rip roaring start in my book.  Yesterday, he said that Fauci has been offered the chief medical advisor role.  He also came out for a 100 day mask policy.  He should know better than that after 2 weeks to slow the spread.  If it actually works, he might be forced to extend it and by saying really forcefully he really promises only 100 days he's backed himself into a corner.  But more likely (given Europe) it doesn't work and he's embarassed or has to turn around and blame people.  Regardless, there isn't any science behind the 100 in 100 days and it's basically a sales slogan (he's probably hoping to catch the drop due to vaccine distribution and declare his policy a victory).  Then there was his statement that schools should reopen, but it will cost billions of dollars to retrofit them all with new ventilation systems (so assuming he'd get the money, they'd do this over the summer or something so Fall 2021 for school reopenings).

I'm not exactly disappointed though or saying he's done.  None of the other democratic leaders around the world (whether left or right) have done much better.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> A couple of comments from
> 
> 
> Reading comprehension.  Your issue was about working with comps.  I work with comps.   I do it day in and day out. Epidemiologists do not work with comps.  Comps are inexact tools for approximation, which is why their usefulness is limited.  Which  is why the argument "masks work in Asia" isn't very useful.


You said you are ”one of them“.  “Them“, in this context, means people who forecast epidemics and epidemic control measures for a living.

It does not mean anyone who does comparisons.

You, on this board, have demonstrated a level of mathmatical sophistication roughly at a high school pre-calculus level.  

Before you are qualified to do “comps“ of this sort, you need stats, biostats, multivariate calc, differential equations, non linear differential equations, and at least two classes in biological dynamical systems.

Then, and only then, will you be even remotely qualified to do a “comp” of the kind you are trying to do.


----------



## watfly (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Biden isn't exactly off to a rip roaring start in my book.  Yesterday, he said that Fauci has been offered the chief medical advisor role.  He also came out for a 100 day mask policy.  He should know better than that after 2 weeks to slow the spread.  If it actually works, he might be forced to extend it and by saying really forcefully he really promises only 100 days he's backed himself into a corner.  But more likely (given Europe) it doesn't work and he's embarassed or has to turn around and blame people.  Regardless, there isn't any science behind the 100 in 100 days and it's basically a sales slogan (he's probably hoping to catch the drop due to vaccine distribution and declare his policy a victory).  Then there was his statement that schools should reopen, but it will cost billions of dollars to retrofit them all with new ventilation systems (so assuming he'd get the money, they'd do this over the summer or something so Fall 2021 for school reopenings).
> 
> I'm not exactly disappointed though or saying he's done.  None of the other democratic leaders around the world (whether left or right) have done much better.


Meh.  The vast majority of the population is either subject to a mask mandate or wearing them voluntarily.  He's just playing to his base.


----------



## watfly (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You, on this board, have demonstrated a level of mathmatical sophistication roughly at a high school pre-calculus level.


You say that like its a bad thing?  If you said that to me I would take it as a complement.  I took 2 years of Calculus in HS (from a HS teacher that wrote his own calculus book) and 1 year in college.  I can't even tell you what calculus is, but I think it involves the sigma sign?  I have mad algebra skills though!

Just a reminder that the virus isn't a math problem, we went through this before with all the claims of exponential growth, that never materialized.  Or Keepermom2 prediction of running out of ICU beds based on math.  The virus does as it pleases regardless of math.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You said you are ”one of them“.  “Them“, in this context, means people who forecast epidemics and epidemic control measures for a living.
> 
> It does not mean anyone who does comparisons.
> 
> ...


I actually finished BC calculus with honors and a 5 on the AP test.   I took basic statitstics in college as well. I know someone as vaunted as you with such a math degree that you can teach mathematics looks down on us lower math peons.  I'll admit it's not my forte.  For more complicated comps, we have MBAs that run the numbers.  That's not where the trick is.  The trick is getting the feel for it and if it's right.  Ever see the movie margin call?....it's the difference between the guys running the numbers amd the Jeremy Irons character.  But in any case, that's not the situation you are citing.  But don't tell me I don't know how to do a comp....it's one of the things I do, thank you very much, and do quite well actually.

Your problem is that your proposition is harder to defend than mine.  To show that masks aren't working, I only have to point to the numerous situations in which they aren't.  You not only have to show why we should distinguish that, but also show a circumstance where they are.  I then only need to show a reason why your cited circumstance (YOUR comp) doesn't work....to distinguish it away.  It's not "fair" but your job is actually harder than mine.  And if I were in your shoes (a teacher) I'd have to give you a failing grade for your efforts so far....because we look everywhere around the world and masks are a failing proposition.  

By the by, for a guy who is horrified by ad hominem attacks you sure do engage in a lot of them.  Guess tournament hypocrisy isn't your only hypocrisy.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

watfly said:


> Meh.  The vast majority of the population is either subject to a mask mandate or wearing them voluntarily.  He's just playing to his base.


Fair.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I actually finished BC calculus with honors and a 5 on the AP test.   I took basic statitstics in college as well. I know someone as vaunted as you with such a math degree that you can teach mathematics looks down on us lower math peons.  I'll admit it's not my forte.  For more complicated comps, we have MBAs that run the numbers.  That's not where the trick is.  The trick is getting the feel for it and if it's right.  Ever see the movie margin call?....it's the difference between the guys running the numbers amd the Jeremy Irons character.  But in any case, that's not the situation you are citing.  But don't tell me I don't know how to do a comp....it's one of the things I do, thank you very much, and do quite well actually.
> 
> Your problem is that your proposition is harder to defend than mine.  To show that masks aren't working, I only have to point to the numerous situations in which they aren't.  You not only have to show why we should distinguish that, but also show a circumstance where they are.  I then only need to show a reason why your cited circumstance (YOUR comp) doesn't work....to distinguish it away.  It's not "fair" but your job is actually harder than mine.  And if I were in your shoes (a teacher) I'd have to give you a failing grade for your efforts so far....because we look everywhere around the world and masks are a failing proposition.
> 
> By the by, for a guy who is horrified by ad hominem attacks you sure do engage in a lot of them.  Guess tournament hypocrisy isn't your only hypocrisy.


I’d actually pegged you as having taken calc and basic stats in college but forgotten it.  Leaves you functioning at a pre-calc level, which is too weak for what you’re trying to do here.

The trouble comes when you see a phrase like “not statistically significant.”.  You can’t remember the definition of “not statistically significant’, so you read it as “not significant”.  That omission changes the meaning entirely, and gives you completely the wrong idea.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I’d actually pegged you as having taken calc and basic stats in college but forgotten it.  Leaves you functioning at a pre-calc level, which is too weak for what you’re trying to do here.
> 
> The trouble comes when you see a phrase like “not statistically significant.”.  You can’t remember the definition of “not statistically significant’, so you read it as “not significant”.  That omission changes the meaning entirely, and gives you completely the wrong idea.


Somewhat on point I'd say.  I have an almost eiditic memory but it's beginning to fail over the years, and I have found myself struggling harder through the number sheets recently.  In any case, you are right I couldn't produce the underlying math, but I'm competent enough to read the MBAs' analysis of it and make projections based on it.  Though you caught me, it's not my favorite thing to do and I groan when I have to see it.  

I undersand what "not statistically significant means".  You are making the opposite fallacy though and assuming that because there is a difference, it means its significant.  That's not how anyone interpreted the study, and I even showed you an exposition (from an MD no less) showing you why you are wrong.  I also showed you in the same interpetation why that's a very bad place to even start the inquiry.  Because the study started with instructions given to people on how to wear the mask.  Because the study handed out surgical masks and the instruction was to replace often.  And  because the study didn't take into account the cloth masks and bandanas that people wear.  The acutal real world circumstance are WORSE than the study, so if you are starting from not statistically significant it's bad.  That's why all you blue pillers are so anxious to dunk on the study, and everyone outside your bubble knows it.  And that's from a middle of the road, fair critique that I cited...I could cite others but you'd dismiss them as partisan sources.

But that's the problem with you.  You are clinging for dear life so terrified to that blue pill that you engage in goalpost moving, straw men, mischaracterizing others statements, and even cry ad hominem when you yourself start engaging in it (and started it).  You are so terrified of losing your blue pill and the illusion of control that you'll do anything and everything to alter the reality around you and preserve your illusion.  It's sad.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Somewhat on point I'd say.  I have an almost eiditic memory but it's beginning to fail over the years, and I have found myself struggling harder through the number sheets recently.  In any case, you are right I couldn't produce the underlying math, but I'm competent enough to read the MBAs' analysis of it and make projections based on it.  Though you caught me, it's not my favorite thing to do and I groan when I have to see it.
> 
> I undersand what "not statistically significant means".  You are making the opposite fallacy though and assuming that because there is a difference, it means its significant.  That's not how anyone interpreted the study, and I even showed you an exposition (from an MD no less) showing you why you are wrong.  I also showed you in the same interpetation why that's a very bad place to even start the inquiry.  Because the study started with instructions given to people on how to wear the mask.  Because the study handed out surgical masks and the instruction was to replace often.  And  because the study didn't take into account the cloth masks and bandanas that people wear.  The acutal real world circumstance are WORSE than the study, so if you are starting from not statistically significant it's bad.  That's why all you blue pillers are so anxious to dunk on the study, and everyone outside your bubble knows it.  And that's from a middle of the road, fair critique that I cited...I could cite others but you'd dismiss them as partisan sources.
> 
> But that's the problem with you.  You are clinging for dear life so terrified to that blue pill that you engage in goalpost moving, straw men, mischaracterizing others statements, and even cry ad hominem when you yourself start engaging in it (and started it).  You are so terrified of losing your blue pill and the illusion of control that you'll do anything and everything to alter the reality around you and preserve your illusion.  It's sad.


p.s. there's a reason they have people like me (or with differing degrees, such as psychologists, law, finance and even fine arts) look at the comps and make the calls.  They've found the numbers people like you are really bad at it.  One of my mentor's (the one that gave me my first break) was a wiz at them....had a BA from a no name college somewhere, worked her way up from the secretarial pool in a boys only club industry, and was looked down by the numbers guys that someone like her got to judge their work....she was a great at it (always right).


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Somewhat on point I'd say.  I have an almost eiditic memory but it's beginning to fail over the years, and I have found myself struggling harder through the number sheets recently.  In any case, you are right I couldn't produce the underlying math, but I'm competent enough to read the MBAs' analysis of it and make projections based on it.  Though you caught me, it's not my favorite thing to do and I groan when I have to see it.
> 
> I undersand what "not statistically significant means".  You are making the opposite fallacy though and assuming that because there is a difference, it means its significant.  That's not how anyone interpreted the study, and I even showed you an exposition (from an MD no less) showing you why you are wrong.  I also showed you in the same interpetation why that's a very bad place to even start the inquiry.  Because the study started with instructions given to people on how to wear the mask.  Because the study handed out surgical masks and the instruction was to replace often.  And  because the study didn't take into account the cloth masks and bandanas that people wear.  The acutal real world circumstance are WORSE than the study, so if you are starting from not statistically significant it's bad.  That's why all you blue pillers are so anxious to dunk on the study, and everyone outside your bubble knows it.  And that's from a middle of the road, fair critique that I cited...I could cite others but you'd dismiss them as partisan sources.
> 
> But that's the problem with you.  You are clinging for dear life so terrified to that blue pill that you engage in goalpost moving, straw men, mischaracterizing others statements, and even cry ad hominem when you yourself start engaging in it (and started it).  You are so terrified of losing your blue pill and the illusion of control that you'll do anything and everything to alter the reality around you and preserve your illusion.  It's sad.


Reread your second paragraph.  You're still conflating statistical significance with significance.

Statistical significance is not how you measure the strength of a potential correlation.  If you want to do that, you need different tools and a much larger study.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> p.s. there's a reason they have people like me (or with differing degrees, such as psychologists, law, finance and even fine arts) look at the comps and make the calls.  They've found the numbers people like you are really bad at it.  One of my mentor's (the one that gave me my first break) was a wiz at them....had a BA from a no name college somewhere, worked her way up from the secretarial pool in a boys only club industry, and was looked down by the numbers guys that someone like her got to judge their work....she was a great at it (always right).


Says the woman who has been wrong on masks since March and still won't admit it.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Reread your second paragraph.  You're still conflating statistical significance with significance.
> 
> Statistical significance is not how you measure the strength of a potential correlation.  If you want to do that, you need different tools and a much larger study.


You've just accused me of doing the opposite of what you originally accused me of (which is what you were doing to begin with).  Seriously dude...words really aren't your strength at all.

And BTW, yes I agree we would need different tools and much larger study.  Unfortunately, though this is the one we have, it's not a very great starting point for your argument and as I've established you have the burden of proof given real world circumstances.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Says the woman who has been wrong on masks since March and still won't admit it.


Mask mandates everywhere, the world burning around you and you have the tenacity to say that.             

The blue pill is powerful stuff.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Mask mandates everywhere, the world burning around you and you have the tenacity to say that.
> 
> The blue pill is powerful stuff.


Could be the blue pill.  Maybe a 5 on BC calc 30 years ago is more important than listening to the people who teach graduate seminars in biostatistical modeling methods.

Or you could be completely out of your depth.

Hard to say, really.  

Is it time for you to insult me for being a math teacher again?  Or for my reading comprehension?  It's kind of like Dostoyevsky predicting the red/black patterns.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Could be the blue pill.  Maybe a 5 on BC calc 30 years ago is more important than listening to the people who teach graduate seminars in biostatistical modeling methods.
> 
> Or you could be completely out of your depth.
> 
> ...


It's the blue pill.  You know it, I know it, everyone knows it.  It's funny that the more someone pokes at it in your grasp the hornier you become.

You never did answer why you are ashamed of being a math teacher?  I happen to think it's a nobel profession.  It just explains why you are sometimes challenged by the verbal aspect of things, much as you've pointed out how much better you are at the math.  No shame in it.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

The CDC is now recommending masks inside the home in certain circumstances.  If someone is infected (makes sense), has a known close contact (hmmm...o.k.), has a potential exposure related to occupation (so wait...supermarket workers who live with other people now are being advised to wear masks 24/7???), or has been in crowded public settings (so wait....anyone on an airplane, bus, subway, or protest is being advised to a wear a mask????  can't see anyone taking advice on this).  What do you think dad....good advice?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334945079958462465


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> ...
> 
> You never did answer why you are ashamed of being a math teacher?  I happen to think it's a nobel profession.


Mathematics is not a Nobel profession.  Fields medal.  But not the Nobel.  Downright discriminatory if you ask me.

But it's the ignoble prize I'd really want.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The CDC is now recommending masks inside the home in certain circumstances.  If someone is infected (makes sense), has a known close contact (hmmm...o.k.), has a potential exposure related to occupation (so wait...supermarket workers who live with other people now are being advised to wear masks 24/7???), or has been in crowded public settings (so wait....anyone on an airplane, bus, subway, or protest is being advised to a wear a mask????  can't see anyone taking advice on this).  What do you think dad....good advice?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334945079958462465


Does the virus know who owns the building?

Makes sense for short term unavoidable exposure, but breaks down for cohabitation. 

Then you get beyond what I can follow.  Perma masks in the home mean a moderate reduction in viral load over a very long time interval.  I haven't seen the research on that, and I would have trouble comprehending it if I did.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Mathematics is not a Nobel profession.  Fields medal.  But not the Nobel.  Downright discriminatory if you ask me.
> 
> But it's the ignoble prize I'd really want.




How about a pen ceremony?


----------



## Mad Hatter (Dec 4, 2020)

Hitler Finds Out About Surf Cup
					

He finds out surf cup is cancelled and realizes there is no hope.




					www.captiongenerator.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

Mad Hatter said:


> Hitler Finds Out About Surf Cup
> 
> 
> He finds out surf cup is cancelled and realizes there is no hope.
> ...


Even a dad reference.....I'm LMAO


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> How about a pen ceremony?


My family usually celebrates when we get out of the pen, not when we go in.

Try outlaw.


----------



## espola (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> It's the blue pill.  You know it, I know it, everyone knows it.  It's funny that the more someone pokes at it in your grasp the hornier you become.
> 
> You never did answer why you are ashamed of being a math teacher?  I happen to think it's a nobel profession.  It just explains why you are sometimes challenged by the verbal aspect of things, much as you've pointed out how much better you are at the math.  No shame in it.


He didn't say that he was ashamed to be a math teacher.  He pointed out that you were belittling math teachers.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> My family usually celebrates when we get out of the pen, not when we go in.
> 
> Try outlaw.


less good than you initial quip.  particularly in light of mad hatter's masterpiece in which you feature.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

espola said:


> He didn't say that he was ashamed to be a math teacher.  He pointed out that you were belittling math teachers.


I have nothing but the highest respect for math teachers.  But it does explain quite a bit of his behavior including but not limited to: a. his failure to apply circumstances in the real world, b. his lack of proficiency in the verbal arts, c. the fascination with mathematical constructs, d. his ability to correctly assess my math fluency. e. his tendency to look down on others for math and f. the chip on his shoulders (as teachers tend to view their profession as being underpaid, not very respected, and to not apply the safety discount to their professions value).  I'm just as critical of my profession btw and its influences on me (see my post re parade of horribles).


----------



## espola (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Mathematics is not a Nobel profession.  Fields medal.  But not the Nobel.  Downright discriminatory if you ask me.
> 
> But it's the ignoble prize I'd really want.


Bertrand Russell, Max Born, John Fields, and Clive Granger were mathematicians who won Nobel Prizes in Physics and Economics.


----------



## espola (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I have nothing but the highest respect for math teachers.  But it does explain quite a bit of his behavior including but not limited to: a. his failure to apply circumstances in the real world, b. his lack of proficiency in the verbal arts, c. the fascination with mathematical constructs, d. his ability to correctly assess my math fluency. e. his tendency to look down on others for math and f. the chip on his shoulders (as teachers tend to view their profession as being underpaid, not very respected, and to not apply the safety discount to their professions value).  I'm just as critical of my profession btw and its influences on me (see my post re parade of horribles).


Interesting spin --  "I have nothing but the highest respect" followed by disrespectful (and unfounded) comments.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

espola said:


> Interesting spin --  "I have nothing but the highest respect" followed by disrespectful (and unfounded) comments.


Mind if I borrow this?  Next time someone calls all attorneys snakes or makes an attorney joke I'll be sure to pull it out (with proper citation if you insist).

Oh it's a stereotype I admit.  Not that all teachers are resentful, or no math teacher ever loved Shakespeare.  But like all stereotypes, there's always a grain of truth there.  Remember the famous saying?: "Those that can't do, teach."

In any case it's pretty clear he's ashamed of it or at least disappointed by it. If he weren't the normal human reaction would be to deny he's a teacher, or to say oh yeah so what?....I'm a teacher and proud of it.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

Don't know how accurate this is.....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334942720251621376


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Don't know how accurate this is.....
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1334942720251621376


You're taking a stat that the author doesn't understand, failing to understand it yourself, and reposting it.

You're well out of your depth here.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You're taking a stat that the author doesn't understand, failing to understand it yourself, and reposting it.
> 
> You're well out of your depth here.


There's nothing to complicated to understand about the stat.  It's a simple IFR calculation.  Even Sheriff Joe can do it.  The question is whether its true and how they derived it....don't have time right now to look at it but some friends are checking.  Not rock science....not even calculus oh high and mighty math master.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> There's nothing to complicated to understand about the stat.  It's a simple IFR calculation.  Even Sheriff Joe can do it.  The question is whether its true and how they derived it....don't have time right now to look at it but some friends are checking.  Not rock science....not even calculus oh high and mighty math master.


I didn't say you can't compute it.  I said you don't understand what it means.  

And still don't.  You're thinking of IFR as constant, while over at the grown ups table they try to predict how IFR changes as hospitals fill.

Out of your league.


----------



## watfly (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I didn't say you can't compute it.  I said you don't understand what it means.
> 
> And still don't.  You're thinking of IFR as constant, while over at the grown ups table they try to predict how IFR changes as hospitals fill.
> 
> Out of your league.


The IFR has been consistently dropping.  Whether that's because there are way more tests, or the virus is becoming less deadly or a combo of both is unknown.  I'm going with a combo of both.  It's certainly not 3.4% which was your initial foray into fear mongering.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I didn't say you can't compute it.  I said you don't understand what it means.
> 
> And still don't.  You're thinking of IFR as constant, while over at the grown ups table they try to predict how IFR changes as hospitals fill.
> 
> Out of your league.



You really are such a hypocrite...decrying the ad hominems while you yourself engage in them.  Like I said you'll engage in any rhetorical exercise to protect your precious blue pill whether goalpost moving, strawmanning, ad hominems, putting words in peoples mouths, making assumptions or outright changing things.  He so got you in that video...

What you don't realize is you are in the delusional table, fascinated by the mathematics of how the IFR changes, chatting about it with your math buddies, convinced its going to crash as the hospitals fill up.  News flash: the trend has been going down.  It's been going down since the beginning where it was estimated at 3% and is now down to somewhere between .1- (in even the most widely pessimistic predictions) .4%.  (Note, I get the better way to understand this is a range, but the only relevant question is where it is now).

Delusional hypocrite, crying about his masks.


----------



## watfly (Dec 4, 2020)

watfly said:


> The IFR has been consistently dropping.  Whether that's because there are way more tests, or the virus is becoming less deadly or a combo of both is unknown.  I'm going with a combo of both.  It's certainly not 3.4% which was your initial foray into fear mongering.


I should clarify, I'm not sure the virus itself is becoming less deadly, but I think we are way better at treating it.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

watfly said:


> I should clarify, I'm not sure the virus itself is becoming less deadly, but I think we are way better at treating it.


This is a major part of it.  There's a theory going around the virus has weakened as it became more virulent but that's never been proven and the evidence is scant.  The other component is the brush theory (people who are genetically or because of age or age related health conditions who would otherwise be vulnerable to respiratory illnesses caught it and died early on leaving the people more resilent around).


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

More evidence that masks can't stop outbreaks.  In Golden Gate Fields (isn't dad around there?), 200 racetrack workers fell ill (most asymptomatic) despite rigorous sanitation, mask, temp checks and testing.  Yes, there were some residents there, but the protocols didn't protect the non-residents either.  It's of course possible the masks reduced viral loads or stopped another portion of the workers from getting ill.  But either the horses are transmitting it, or the masks didn't help stop it in this circumstance.









						How did 200 racetrack workers at Golden Gate Fields get COVID-19?
					

One week after a COVID-19 outbreak involving hundreds of Golden Gate Fields workers became public, many who tested positive are back to work.




					www.berkeleyside.com


----------



## espola (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Mind if I borrow this?  Next time someone calls all attorneys snakes or makes an attorney joke I'll be sure to pull it out (with proper citation if you insist).
> 
> Oh it's a stereotype I admit.  Not that all teachers are resentful, or no math teacher ever loved Shakespeare.  But like all stereotypes, there's always a grain of truth there.  Remember the famous saying?: "Those that can't do, teach."
> 
> In any case it's pretty clear he's ashamed of it or at least disappointed by it. If he weren't the normal human reaction would be to deny he's a teacher, or to say oh yeah so what?....I'm a teacher and proud of it.


It appears that you can't help yourself.  

BTW, in the future, all lawyer jokes will be illustrated with the picture of Rudy with his hair dye running down his face.


----------



## espola (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This is a major part of it.  There's a theory going around the virus has weakened as it became more virulent but that's never been proven and the evidence is scant.  The other component is the brush theory (people who are genetically or because of age or age related health conditions who would otherwise be vulnerable to respiratory illnesses caught it and died early on leaving the people more resilent around).


The virus is not a single organism.  There is no biological mechanism by which billions of independent virus particles will spontaneously "weaken".


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> You really are such a hypocrite...decrying the ad hominems while you yourself engage in them.  Like I said you'll engage in any rhetorical exercise to protect your precious blue pill whether goalpost moving, strawmanning, ad hominems, putting words in peoples mouths, making assumptions or outright changing things.  He so got you in that video...
> 
> What you don't realize is you are in the delusional table, fascinated by the mathematics of how the IFR changes, chatting about it with your math buddies, convinced its going to crash as the hospitals fill up.  News flash: the trend has been going down.  It's been going down since the beginning where it was estimated at 3% and is now down to somewhere between .1- (in even the most widely pessimistic predictions) .4%.  (Note, I get the better way to understand this is a range, but the only relevant question is where it is now).
> 
> Delusional hypocrite, crying about his masks.


If you don't like being out of your league, stop reposting twitter garbage and go back to posting articles.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

espola said:


> The virus is not a single organism.  There is no biological mechanism by which billions of independent virus particles will spontaneously "weaken".











						Will the Coronavirus Evolve to Be Less Deadly?
					

History and science suggest many possible pathways for pandemics, but questions remain about how this one will end




					www.smithsonianmag.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> If you don't like being out of your league, stop reposting twitter garbage and go back to posting articles.


I did pass it on saying I hadn't had time to check out veracity.   Unlike you, I'm careful not to mislead.  Why is it the antilockdowners are the only ones crying about don't post the information???  Oh yeah....your precious....you don't want that threatened.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

espola said:


> The virus is not a single organism.  There is no biological mechanism by which billions of independent virus particles will spontaneously "weaken".


The mechanism is natural selection.  Viruses compete with each other, too.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> The mechanism is natural selection.  Viruses compete with each other, too.


Close but not quite.  Read the article I posted.  Who is out of their league again?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 4, 2020)

watfly said:


> I should clarify, I'm not sure the virus itself is becoming less deadly, but I think we are way better at treating it.


If I understand it correctly, IFR is estimated. The denominator is the number of infections - estimated somehow from actual tested infections and some other method to estimate untested infections. Ignoring changes due to different estimates of untested infections, some of the drop could be due to a smaller proportion of the high risk people catching it due to efforts to protect them and those in lower risk groups doing little to protect themselves. As you say, better treatment definitely appears to be improving IFR as well. Some of it could also be that our behavior and/or “seasonality” lowered the initial viral load obtained by those infected. There is evidence that the initial load is directly related to the severity of the illness. If that’s the case, we may see IFR go up this winter - or, not drop as much as it would if we were in our summer.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Close but not quite.  Read the article I posted.  Who is out of their league again?


Probably both of us.  No need to make a single cause fallacy.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Close but not quite.  Read the article I posted.  Who is out of their league again?


Your article is a great description of what natural selection means in a viral context.

You'll have to find one of my many other mistakes if you want to call me out of my league.


----------



## N00B (Dec 4, 2020)

espola said:


> It appears that you can't help yourself.
> 
> BTW, in the future, all lawyer jokes will be illustrated with the picture of Rudy with his hair dye running down his face.


I’m fairly sure it was mascara, used as hair dye to touch up the grey, but either way... funny.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Your article is a great description of what natural selection means in a viral context.
> 
> You'll have to find one of my many other mistakes if you want to call me out of my league.


as usual you have only a partial understanding. You got right that the mechanism in action is natural selection in a viral context. You didn’t describe the mechanism correctly. And no I’m not going to fall for another one of your transparent rhetorical tricks and get into interpreting what the author meant or annotating the author. Folks can read the article and decide themselves.


----------



## N00B (Dec 4, 2020)

espola said:


> It appears that you can't help yourself.
> 
> BTW, in the future, all lawyer jokes will be illustrated with the picture of Rudy with his hair dye running down his face.


Can we substitute images of politicians, who seem to be disproportionately attorneys... just like Rudy?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 4, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> If I understand it correctly, IFR is estimated. The denominator is the number of infections - estimated somehow from actual tested infections and some other method to estimate untested infections. Ignoring changes due to different estimates of untested infections, some of the drop could be due to a smaller proportion of the high risk people catching it due to efforts to protect them and those in lower risk groups doing little to protect themselves. As you say, better treatment definitely appears to be improving IFR as well. Some of it could also be that our behavior and/or “seasonality” lowered the initial viral load obtained by those infected. There is evidence that the initial load is directly related to the severity of the illness. If that’s the case, we may see IFR go up this winter - or, not drop as much as it would if we were in our summer.


you are right. It might go up. We don’t know.  But if it does it probably won’t be by much and it might also just stop falling or slow it’s fall. One way the check is to see what happened in Switzerland. Don’t have those figures but they are pretty much on the downslope and without massive government intervention...would be a possible approximate or comp of the worst case...what happened there?


----------



## espola (Dec 4, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Will the Coronavirus Evolve to Be Less Deadly?
> 
> 
> History and science suggest many possible pathways for pandemics, but questions remain about how this one will end
> ...


From the article -- “Everyone talks about viral evolution” potentially leading to decreased mortality, wrote Wolfe. “But I haven’t seen any conclusive data to support that hypothesis yet.”


----------



## espola (Dec 4, 2020)

dad4 said:


> The mechanism is natural selection.  Viruses compete with each other, too.


Just posting words doesn't explain the mechanism very well.  Read the article Grace posted -- it has a more thorough explanation and also points out that there is currently no evidence that it is happening.

If I were looking for a rosy picture along the "natural selection" line, I would wish for a variety of the virus that doesn't make very many people very sick, but still spreads rapidly because many people are resistant to following simple protocols, and -- here's the kicker -- establishes immunity to the killer strains.  In the history of vaccinations, Jenner noted that milkmaids who had contracted cowpox (a mild disease in both cows and humans that is usually manifested only in a few runnin sores that heal quickly) were generally immune to smallpox.  He then deliberately injected the pus from cowpox sores into willing subjects and almost none of them caught smallpox.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 4, 2020)

espola said:


> From the article -- “Everyone talks about viral evolution” potentially leading to decreased mortality, wrote Wolfe. “But I haven’t seen any conclusive data to support that hypothesis yet.”


You mean, like masks? ... No, no. It was just something to stir the pot. Nothing to see here.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

Someone should have thought about this logo a bit more.

On the other hand if dance studios use it, maybe they can open up based on the science.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

So this what you get when you have guys like @dad4 running the show. In this case the mayor of LA.

At some point enough is enough.

Takeout should be good enough right @dad4? 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1335019055053475843


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

And then you have this. More science.

"On multiple occasions during a Thursday press conference announcing the framework for impending stay-at-home orders across California, Gov. Gavin Newsom mostly ducked a series of questions from reporters about whether state officials have hard evidence that new business closures will actually slow the spread of the coronavirus, which is surging in the state."


"After not citing any data or speaking to whether state officials would share new data going forward, Newsom turned it over to Ghaly, who echoed Newsom on restricting mixing before addressing the industry-specific concerns, albeit without any hard data on specific industries such as hair salons."









						Gavin Newsom sidesteps questions on whether data supports new business closures
					

Neither Newsom nor Ghaly directly answered a reporter's inquiry as to whether business...




					www.sfgate.com


----------



## watfly (Dec 5, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> So this what you get when you have guys like @dad4 running the show. In this case the mayor of LA.
> 
> At some point enough is enough.
> 
> ...


Pretty easy equation: Hollywood = Garcetti/Newsom Votes


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

watfly said:


> Pretty easy equation: Hollywood = Garcetti/Newsom Votes


Very true. But you forgot donations as well. But that is what you also meant.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 5, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> So this what you get when you have guys like @dad4 running the show. In this case the mayor of LA.
> 
> At some point enough is enough.
> 
> ...


The dynamics of this are that the film and television studios threatened to move all their production to Florida. Disney in particular has been upset because of the closure of Disneyland and still has facilities that could be turn keyed in Florida. The state let them resume production because they agreed to test crew weekly. Also they figured people would be upset if they have to stay home and the studios were unable to finish things like crown or mandalorian (and if they allow post it’s hard to draw a line around production) and people had nothing new to watch for months. The union contracts require that you feed crew on set. So, as usually happens, through a series of unintended consequences the so-called experts failed to foresee you get this situation.   It’s going to happen again with the vaccine— California has placed production crews and actors in a higher vaccination tier than regular folks (my sons godfather, who is a PD, has already been told it will be mandated by his company). His wife is a teacher. They were arguing the other night that he will get the vaccine before she but I don’t know if that’s in fact true. 



Desert Hound said:


> And then you have this. More science.
> 
> "On multiple occasions during a Thursday press conference announcing the framework for impending stay-at-home orders across California, Gov. Gavin Newsom mostly ducked a series of questions from reporters about whether state officials have hard evidence that new business closures will actually slow the spread of the coronavirus, which is surging in the state."
> 
> ...


There’s a lawsuit, I think but not sure out of Kentucky, alleging the state has no scientific basis to close the schools. The state is arguing the test in non religious cases fir these restrictions under state constitutions, most of which guarantee a right to free in person education, should be whether the state has a rational basis to restrict education. The plaintiffs argue since the science at least with respect to elementary schools is clear and therefore there is no rational basis.  Iihc the Supreme Court of the us slated to hear the case which might clarify how far states can go in non first amendment circumstances and what they need to do to justify the policy.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 5, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Someone should have thought about this logo a bit more.
> 
> On the other hand if dance studios use it, maybe they can open up based on the science.
> 
> View attachment 9580


Needs a pole


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 5, 2020)

Kentucky case is a religious schools case. It is apparently arguing both: state cannot restrict religious instruction and no rational basis for religious schools. In California newsom already signed a settlement with religious schools but some counties (notably la) are keeping them shut anyway


----------



## watfly (Dec 5, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Needs a pole


I suggested that to my daughter's studio owner to install poles at the studio.  Right now the owner is running classes outside as cover for the classes running inside.  She's consulted with a constitutional attorney so she is prepared for a fight.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 5, 2020)

espola said:


> Interesting spin --  "I have nothing but the highest respect" followed by disrespectful (and unfounded) comments.


Seems to be a version of “with all due respect”.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 5, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> So this what you get when you have guys like @dad4 running the show. In this case the mayor of LA.
> 
> At some point enough is enough.
> 
> ...


Not sure where you get the idea that I have any power in this.

I would have closed restaurants/bars/casinos/etc. in March and kept them shut.  Schools, especially elementary, ought to be open.

Instead, casinos are open and schools are shut.  It's the exact opposite of what people like me wanted.

Now we are to the point of a stricter lockdown.  It would be nice if it were science based and narrowly tailored, but we no longer have time to think things through.  We used up that time keeping restaurants open and fighting over masks.

Which leaves us where we are, closing things at random and praying for the best.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 5, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Not sure where you get the idea that I have any power in this.
> 
> I would have closed restaurants/bars/casinos/etc. in March and kept them shut.  Schools, especially elementary, ought to be open.
> 
> ...


Restaurants were never open in LA County or in the City of LA...so please explain your restaurant and bar theory and how it applies to LA County.   The only people I see in groups without masks are the homeless.


----------



## NorCalDad (Dec 5, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Can any of these guys get out of their own way?


I really wish Fauci would stay away from media.  Issue is nobody is talking about the virus at a national level.  We really need consistent messaging.  I mean this is leadership 101.


----------



## NorCalDad (Dec 5, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Mask mandates everywhere, the world burning around you and you have the tenacity to say that.
> 
> The blue pill is powerful stuff.


Mask mandates vs what people actually do are two different things.   But, yeah it would support the notion that mask mandates don't work, but also support the notion that leadership, at all levels, that have downplayed mask efficacy are probably more to blame.


----------



## NorCalDad (Dec 5, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> More evidence that masks can't stop outbreaks.  In Golden Gate Fields (isn't dad around there?), 200 racetrack workers fell ill (most asymptomatic) despite rigorous sanitation, mask, temp checks and testing.  Yes, there were some residents there, but the protocols didn't protect the non-residents either.  It's of course possible the masks reduced viral loads or stopped another portion of the workers from getting ill.  But either the horses are transmitting it, or the masks didn't help stop it in this circumstance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Or it could be evidence that people are not adhering to the rules and recommendations.  No facility is going to come out and say "Oh, we've been really against covid protections".


----------



## dad4 (Dec 5, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> Restaurants were never open in LA County or in the City of LA...so please explain your restaurant and bar theory and how it applies to LA County.   The only people I see in groups without masks are the homeless.


Restaurant and bar theory comes from CDC, not me.









						Community and Close Contact Exposures Associated with COVID-19 ...
					

Community and close contact exposures continue to drive the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. CDC and other public health authorities recommend community mitigation strategies ...




					www.cdc.gov
				




Opening restaurants and bars is not the only thing you can do wrong.  It‘s a big one, but there are others.  Maybe you guys closed all your restaurants but held lots of dinner parties.  Maybe half the population has a mask but wears it just below the nose.   I can’t tell for sure what LA is doing wrong.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 5, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Restaurant and bar theory comes from CDC, not me.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Right, so you’re constantly arguing that bars and restaurants are driving this new wave of cases except for were bars and restaurants haven’t been open, that’s all from house parties and improper mask wearing, “maybe”.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 5, 2020)

Could it be true.....


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## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Restaurant and bar theory comes from CDC, not me.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Actually they are not really sure about their info. Read the limitations. For bars they don't know about being in the bar or getting delivery. For restaurants they don't know about indoor vs outdoor. And the limitations go on and on. 

Further as was posted here a few weeks ago, health ministries from around the world were on record stating that they cannot reliably determine in the vast majority of cases where an infection happened. 

So the fact is states are closing stuff without hard data. Remember bars and restaurants in many places have been open for months on end. The recent spikes happened long after. I know you will say well it is colder now people are inside. AZ as just one example has always been inside during those months without a rise. Too damn hot to eat or drink on the patio up until mid to late Sept.


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## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Not sure where you get the idea that I have any power in this.


You are full of bad idea like our "leaders". 

Cancel tournaments. Never mind my kid wants to go. 

Hey lets test teams every day before games. Not at risk and rather expensive

Hey lets cut down class sizes and do cohorts of some ridiculously small number. School are dangerous. They aren't

Hey lets put 10s of millions of people out of work on a theory never tried before. 

Hey the first lockdowns didn't work but lets do it again. 

Masks work. Why is the world spiking again? Probably restaurants and bars. Had they shut those down. 

And it goes on and on. 

You ever circle around to take note of the fact that pretty much every one of your ideas hasn't worked or was completely wrong?


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

I will give you a visual representation of your go to solution every time.


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## dad4 (Dec 5, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> Right, so you’re constantly arguing that bars and restaurants are driving this new wave of cases except for were bars and restaurants haven’t been open, that’s all from house parties and improper mask wearing, “maybe”.


A noticeable fraction of the country is outside LA.  Maybe I was talking about one if those obscure places.


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## kickingandscreaming (Dec 5, 2020)

NorCalDad said:


> Or it could be evidence that people are not adhering to the rules and recommendations.  No facility is going to come out and say "Oh, we've been really against covid protections".


Isn't getting "buy-in" also part of leadership? Leadership isn't "do what I say" and then blame people for not doing it if it doesn't work out. That's also Leadership 101. If politicians are that out of touch with the people they represent, they'll never be good leaders.


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## dad4 (Dec 5, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> You are full of bad idea like our "leaders".
> 
> Cancel tournaments. Never mind my kid wants to go.
> 
> ...


When did YOU ever actually lock down?

You've been talking about bars and restaurants and minimal mask usage ever since May.  You haven't been even minimally cautious for the last six months


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 5, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Restaurant and bar theory comes from CDC, not me.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Maybe the virus is seasonal and what you could get away with in August you can't in November. I love your effort to put it under our control, though. It is really - just don't be in the same building or come near anyone and wait for the vaccine, that's all.


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## NorCalDad (Dec 5, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Isn't getting "buy-in" also part of leadership? Leadership isn't "do what I say" and then blame people for not doing it if it doesn't work out. That's also Leadership 101. If politicians are that out of touch with the people they represent, they'll never be good leaders.


For sure, the syllabus for Leadership 101 has many bullet points.  The challenge here is you have leadership all over the place on this.  

I mean the sad thing about all of this is if a foreign entity really wanted to take the US down, just give us a virus. All these "anti-maskers", "you're taking away our freedoms", and "covid is a hoax" people would be the death of us.


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## kickingandscreaming (Dec 5, 2020)

NorCalDad said:


> For sure, the syllabus for Leadership 101 has many bullet points.  The challenge here is you have leadership all over the place on this.
> 
> I mean the sad thing about all of this is if a foreign entity really wanted to take the US down, just give us a virus. All these "anti-maskers", "you're taking away our freedoms", and "covid is a hoax" people would be the death of us.


The problem is that there is little real leadership, and there is an overabundance of partisanship.

I'd also note that there is a lot of "distance" between "covid is a hoax" and "you are taking away our freedoms". Just because covid is not a hoax doesn't justify the arbitrary suppression of freedoms.


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## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The problem is that there is little real leadership, and there is an overabundance of partisanship


Now this is just a comment in general. Not contradicting anything you have said.

So masks.

Many here and other places blame the rise in cases based on leadership. Does that also mean every other country in the N Hemisphere also failed in leadership as it relates to masks? Or is it that masks only slightly help at most? 

And that then goes on to the overall policies.

I ask that because despite different leaders, different policies, we are all experiencing the same thing over the past month or 2 in the N Hemisphere


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## Grace T. (Dec 5, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The problem is that there is little real leadership, and there is an overabundance of partisanship.
> 
> I'd also note that there is a lot of "distance" between "covid is a hoax" and "you are taking away our freedoms". Just because covid is not a hoax doesn't justify the arbitrary suppression of freedoms.


the particular problem here is that it is 2x-6x deadlier than a bad flu and highly highly contagious but at .1-.4% ifr no where near a catastrophe on the levels of the polio epidemics post wwi, the Spanish flu, the wwii measles epidemics, the 19th century cholera and scarlet fever epidemics, small pox, Ebola, sars 1 or the plague.  Add to that the complication it’s not deadly at all for those under 30 but much more deadly for those over 65. Add to that the complication that we have traditionally sacrificed the old to save the young...the future (“women and children first”). Add to that the easiest measures we have (whether or not they actually help) restrict children who can’t vote (schools sports playgrounds) as opposed to businesses which generate tax (ski resorts restaurants movie studios). Add to that these measure directly hurt the working poor and small business but enrich the wealthy (who have ample room during lockdowns and are working from home) and large corporations (amazon). Add to that an election year, and blm protests which broke the “we are all in this together” consensus and it’s a recipe for a s show before we even get to bad leadership of health experts, trump, or the hypocritical leftist lockdowners.


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## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

Do we all remember "Just Say No"?









						Many Epidemiologists Want Social Distancing and Masks Forever—Even After the Vaccine
					

Everyone has a right to dissent from the epidemiologists' contentment with the way things are now.




					reason.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

Just 3-4 weeks ago Europe was "way behind the US". 

Italy, Germany, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands and Belgium (about the same population as the US) in specific had about 50k or more less deaths vs the US. 

They must be working out or something. Now they are about 20k behind. I guess Europe didn't nail it. 

Deaths in those counties: 267,540
US 287,807

I keep wondering which of their policies should we have followed? 

We were told for months the US screwed the pooch, but Europe got it right.

Bueller?


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

Anyone believe they haven't had a covid death now in months?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 5, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Anyone believe they haven't had a covid death now in months?
> 
> View attachment 9584


Yes, different culture, they listen to experts and do what they are told, they comply. There are positives and negatives to that type of community compliance.


----------



## watfly (Dec 5, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Isn't getting "buy-in" also part of leadership? Leadership isn't "do what I say" and then blame people for not doing it if it doesn't work out. That's also Leadership 101. If politicians are that out of touch with the people they represent, they'll never be good leaders.


That right there is the primary problem.  "Buy in" or consensus with counties was never attempted.   Everything has been dictated.  Add in arbitrary, token and non-science based restrictions and your not going to get compliance particularly for curfews and non-essential travel restrictions.  Oh and also add in the hypocrisy.

That having been said, myself, everyone I know, and 99.9% of the people I see, are wearing masks or practicing social distancing in public.  No Covid issues with my friends and family (except a couple nephews in Utah).  Frankly, I just consider myself lucky.  The virus is going to do its thing.


----------



## watfly (Dec 5, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yes, different culture, they listen to experts and do what they are told, they comply. There are positives and negatives to that type of community compliance.


Good point, in fact here is a video of some Chinese citizens listening to experts.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 5, 2020)

watfly said:


> Good point, in fact here is a video of some Chinese citizens listening to experts.


You realize that by now we have buried more people than PRC placed into mandatory covid isolation.

There is a cost to sociopathic libertarianism, too.  When too many people say "screw everyone else", everyone gets screwed.  

(Don't read this as praise for PRC.  Covid in US is bad, but still less than 1% of the size of Mao's engineered famine.)


----------



## watfly (Dec 5, 2020)

dad4 said:


> There is a cost to sociopathic libertarianism, too.


No one is proposing this. (Queue mischaracterization of my arguments).


----------



## NorCalDad (Dec 5, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The problem is that there is little real leadership, and there is an overabundance of partisanship.


For sure -- it's all over the place. Newsom has really screwed this up. He likely won't be getting my vote next time around. On the flip side, the messaging from the federal side of the shop has been abysmal; almost criminal. Our local officials have been even worse as they're just kowtowing to the state. It's all stupid at this point. Opening indoor venues was just dumb. Not emphasizing what was safe based on data collected by tons of youth sports organizations was a massive missed opportunity. Few people, outside of parents, were ever going to be ok with seeing kids participating in outdoor activities like normal while business were in lockdown. The surges have nothing to do with youth sports. 

Anyway, I think covid is just the beginning.  I'm sure there are some countries that aren't friendly with the US that are watching this unfold and taking a lot of notes.  Imagine a more deadly, laboratory (for reals) made virus.  I have a feeling we're going to learn the hard way.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 5, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You realize that by now we have buried more people than PRC placed into mandatory covid isolation.
> 
> There is a cost to sociopathic libertarianism, too.  When too many people say "screw everyone else", everyone gets screwed.
> 
> (Don't read this as praise for PRC.  Covid in US is bad, but still less than 1% of the size of Mao's engineered famine.)


You say you aren't praising the PRC but then you put it in the same ballpark as "sociopathic libertarianism".  I would remind you (setting aside the ancient history of Mao), the current Chinese regime has "controlled" COVID through the abuses to liberty we've seen in the video posted (including the forced testing of individuals, forced quarantine, and the separation of children and families), the Chinese regime lied to the world about COVID (creating the mess we are in and eliminating any possibility we had of containing it), the Chinese regime excacerbated the crisis we are in by buying up the world's PPE while it kept the outbreak a secret, the Chinese regime deliberately sealed off travel within China while allowing travel to outside of China to continue, the Chinese regime has set up a brutal surveilence state on its people including a points system to control the behavior or its population and a repressive system of prison camps for those who dare challenge the regime, the Chinese government has broken the agreement on Hong Kong and engaged in the deliberate suppression of its democratic systems and liberties, the Chinese regime continues its repressive occupation and resettlement of the Tibet region, the Chinese government has engaged in an almost genocidal campaign against the Uyghurs of north western China, the Chinese government corrupted the WHO to cover it and has engaged in retribution tactics against nations such as Japan and Australia that attempted to call it out on COVID, and the Chinese government engaged in a brutally repressive one child system which was only lifted a few years ago.

To compare American libertarianism to this is not only pattently unfair, it is also out and out offensive.  I'll take libertarianism (the philosophy on which our country in part was founded) over Chinese style "democracy" any day of the week.   It's nice ewhen the mask (ha ha!) slips and reveals the petty totalitarian tendencies of people who insist we must obey the experts and not publicly question them.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yes, different culture, they listen to experts and do what they are told, they comply. There are positives and negatives to that type of community compliance.


Expand on the positives of a dictatorship.

Tell us about the uighurs.

Tell us about about Tibet.

Etc.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 5, 2020)

watfly said:


> Good point, in fact here is a video of some Chinese citizens listening to experts.


I guess that would be an example of listening to the experts.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 5, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You realize that by now we have buried more people than PRC placed into mandatory covid isolation.
> 
> There is a cost to sociopathic libertarianism, too.  When too many people say "screw everyone else", everyone gets screwed.
> 
> (Don't read this as praise for PRC.  Covid in US is bad, but still less than 1% of the size of Mao's engineered famine.)


Hahaha! Really? You believe the numbers the Chinese government puts out? People "disappear" when they speak out against that government. That's not exactly a recipe for transparency.









						Can We Believe Any of China’s Coronavirus Numbers?
					

On Wednesday, China changed how it counts COVID-19 cases for the eighth time.




					time.com
				












						Report of Urns in Wuhan Raises Questions About COVID-19 Death Toll
					

Many are skeptical of China's tallies given Wuhan’s overwhelmed medical system and authorities’ initial attempts to cover up the outbreak




					time.com
				












						The Wuhan files | CNN
					

Misleading public data, a three-week lag in diagnosing new virus cases, and a previously undeclared regional spike in influenza cases: 117 pages of internal documents show a chaotic and underfunded provincial health care system struggling to confront a mysterious viral outbreak.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## espola (Dec 5, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> To compare American libertarianism to this is not only pattently unfair, it is also out and out offensive.  I'll take libertarianism (the philosophy on which our country in part was founded) over Chinese style "democracy" any day of the week.   It's nice ewhen the mask (ha ha!) slips and reveals the petty totalitarian tendencies of people who insist we must obey the experts and not publicly question them.


Could you explain that point a little further - the one about "the philosophy on which our country in part was founded"?  Are we talking Declaration of Independence and associated documents?  The US Constitution and Bill of Rights?  Or perhaps the philosophy of the current Libertarian Party movement?

With less than a minute of googling, I found that the first person to describe himself as a "libertarian" was Joseph Dejacque, a 19th -Century French anarchist and commmunist, but I don't think that is the philosophy you had in mind.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 5, 2020)

espola said:


> Could you explain that point a little further - the one about "the philosophy on which our country in part was founded"?  Are we talking Declaration of Independence and associated documents?  The US Constitution and Bill of Rights?  Or perhaps the philosophy of the current Libertarian Party movement?
> 
> With less than a minute of googling, I found that the first person to describe himself as a "libertarian" was Joseph Dejacque, a 19th -Century French anarchist and commmunist, but I don't think that is the philosophy you had in mind.


Meh....libertarianism as a philosophy (not the libertarian party) is based on the rights of the individual.  You see this tendency in the Declaration of Independence, Constitution, and Bill of Rights.  It derives from what is typically known as "Classical liberalism".  You make too much of it.  There are other tendencies there, whether federalism or Jeffersonian republicanism, hence the "in part".


----------



## watfly (Dec 5, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Expand on the positives of a dictatorship.
> 
> Tell us about the uighurs.
> 
> ...


Dictatorships are clean and efficient.  Democracy is messy.


----------



## espola (Dec 6, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Meh....libertarianism as a philosophy (not the libertarian party) is based on the rights of the individual.  You see this tendency in the Declaration of Independence, Constitution, and Bill of Rights.  It derives from what is typically known as "Classical liberalism".  You make too much of it.  There are other tendencies there, whether federalism or Jeffersonian republicanism, hence the "in part".


More on libertarans -- https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/matthew-hongoltz-hetling/a-libertarian-walks-into-a-bear/9781541788510/


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## Grace T. (Dec 7, 2020)

I like this article.  Particularly from the perspective of a box store employee: they are being told to go to work but at the same time the government is telling them it's not safe and people should stay home.  They have to work (and interact with people all day) but can't socialize.










						Many aren’t buying public officials' 'stay-at-home' message. Experts say there's a better way
					

Some experts say a harm-reduction approach to public health — educating people how to mitigate risk in their activities — would be more effective than all-or-nothing pleas to abstain from contact with other people.




					www.latimes.com


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## kickingandscreaming (Dec 7, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I like this article.  Particularly from the perspective of a box store employee: they are being told to go to work but at the same time the government is telling them it's not safe and people should stay home.  They have to work (and interact with people all day) but can't socialize.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


These two quotes from experts resonate with me.

“It’s not because the public is irresponsible; it’s because they are losing trust in public health officials who put out arbitrary restrictions,” said Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist at UC San Francisco. “We are failing in our public health messaging.”

...

But banning relatively safe outdoor activities risks alienating people who want to follow the rules but feel exhausted, disregarded and sometimes confused by them, Brown University health economist Emily Oster said.

“*Some of the things they’re telling you not to do are incredibly low-risk*,” Oster said. “When you are so strict about what people can do, they stop listening.”


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 7, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> “When you are so strict about what people can do, they stop listening.”


This is absolutely the case. 

Look back on this forum. Look how the discussions have changed. More and more people are tired of these arbitrary rules.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 7, 2020)

It’s the natural progression for the suppression of liberties. There was a lot of buy-in at first. No one quite knew how bad it was. Fortunately, it’s not nearly as deadly as first stated, but unfortunately, CA politicians (I won’t say leaders. That title should be earned) started with arbitrary rules, ignored their own rules and tried to use science to justify rules while blatantly ignoring science when it comes to our children - both with school and outdoor sports.


----------



## watfly (Dec 7, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> These two quotes from experts resonate with me.
> 
> “It’s not because the public is irresponsible; it’s because they are losing trust in public health officials who put out arbitrary restrictions,” said Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist at UC San Francisco. “We are failing in our public health messaging.”
> 
> ...


I'm pretty sure those sentiments are a basic concept in a Leadership 101 class.


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Dec 7, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It’s the natural progression for the suppression of liberties. There was a lot of buy-in at first. No one quite knew how bad it was. Fortunately, it’s not nearly as deadly as first stated, but unfortunately, CA politicians (I won’t say leaders. That title should be earned) started with arbitrary rules, ignored their own rules and tried to use science to justify rules while blatantly ignoring science when it comes to our children - both with school and outdoor sports.


What I have been unable to piece together in my mind is why? Either they are afraid of saying they made a mistake, they truly believe their methods work, or they have a grand scheme to grow government towards a socialist society. I never thought I would see a politician do so many unpopular things to his constituents and not worry about the consequences. Most politician worry about getting reelected. Democrats don’t seem to have that fear.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 7, 2020)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> What I have been unable to piece together in my mind is why? Either they are afraid of saying they made a mistake, they truly believe their methods work, or they have a grand scheme to grow government towards a socialist society. I never thought I would see a politician do so many unpopular things to his constituents and not worry about the consequences. Most politician worry about getting reelected. Democrats don’t seem to have that fear.


Politically they made a big deal to voter that the reason we are in this mess is because Trump failed to act.  About 1/3 of voters believed them and was worked into a panic, and it just happens to (mostly) aligin with the Democratic base.  The entire thing behind "masks" and "science" has almost become cultish.  So, when they find the numbers are rising, they have to do "something" to keep that base satisfied, even if they themselves don't believe it (by all the Ds we've had that have broken their own rules) or they don't think it will work (e.g. LA County not having any basis to close outdoor dining or schools still being closed despite evidence schools are not major spreaders of the virus).  My "inlaws" are like that....very proud and looking down their noses on people not following "the science".  A portion of them are just fearful: I wrote that my son's friend from elementary school hasn't been allowed outside of the house/backyard since March...he hasn't seen anyone even for a distanced picnic and because his parents don't allow him a phone...the only time he gets with peers are through remote school or classes (like chess and Kumon).....their justification is the kid has a peanut allergy, but he's an introvert and my son guess he's probably happy being away from annoying classmates.

A comparison of cases per million between Florida (Disney World  open) and California (Disneyland closed).  California has now passed Florida's peak despite renewed lockdowns, travel bans, mask mandates, and curfews.  Seasonality is a thing.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336053516926812160


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 7, 2020)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> What I have been unable to piece together in my mind is why? Either they are afraid of saying they made a mistake, they truly believe their methods work, or they have a grand scheme to grow government towards a socialist society. I never thought I would see a politician do so many unpopular things to his constituents and not worry about the consequences. Most politician worry about getting reelected. Democrats don’t seem to have that fear.


It's a good question. I believe that many are convinced it is the "right" thing to do. Also, the Social Justice Warrior is a real thing. Zealots, religious or otherwise, justify their actions as being the only moral response. It's a lousy way to try to lead people.


----------



## N00B (Dec 7, 2020)

Does this belong in the good news or bad news thread?

https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-positives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19

Looks like CA positivity is hovering around 8% which appears to be the axis point where percentage of false positives decline vs actual positives... but when positivity % is lower, doesn’t look like the CA Blueprint works due to the false positive rate.

Thoughts?


----------



## oh canada (Dec 7, 2020)

Regional updates...

Orange County - skyrocketing cases and worried doctors:  https://voiceofoc.org/2020/12/orange-county-continues-to-see-record-setting-coronavirus-cases-and-hospitalizations/

San Diego - Beginning today, County drive-up COVID-19 testing sites will temporarily convert to appointment-only in response to long lines & safety concerns.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 7, 2020)

N00B said:


> Does this belong in the good news or bad news thread?
> 
> https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-positives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19
> 
> ...


Bad news on a couple of levels from what I can tell. The first bit of bad news is that, if true, it is another example where trust in "experts" is undermined. As the study states, we have been told to trust a PCR test that is positive. This also makes reaching lower rates of new case in the CA Blueprint more difficult since the true rate will need to be lower than the threshold to "test" at the threshold.


----------



## N00B (Dec 7, 2020)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/07/pfizer-vaccine-doses-trump/%3foutputType=amp
		


Looks like we’re in for a bumpy market on the 8th.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

N00B said:


> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/07/pfizer-vaccine-doses-trump/%3foutputType=amp
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like we’re in for a bumpy market on the 8th.


between this and the slow fda approval the “experts” are so far s the pooch on the vaccine roll outs


----------



## watfly (Dec 8, 2020)

watfly said:


> Webster's word of the year is "pandemic".  California's word of the year should be "arbitrary".
> 
> My daughter's dance studio served with a cease and desist and closed.  Strip clubs open.


Good news in the bad news forum on my daughter's dance studio:

Last Friday the studio was served with its 2nd cease and desist order.  On Saturday 3 sheriffs, allegedly hostile, show up to physically close the studio.  The studio owner calls the media.  The media contacts the County to get their side of the story.  On Sunday the County contacts the studio and says there must have been a mistake and apologizes for the sheriffs showing up and the erroneous cease and desist orders.  Yesterday the County met with the studio owner and now the studio is open for both outdoor and indoor classes based on the Day Camp protocols, including 14 person cohorts, with full approval of the County.

Congrats to the studio owner for holding firm and fighting the government overreach and strong arm tactics against small business.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 8, 2020)

watfly said:


> Good news in the bad news forum on my daughter's dance studio:
> 
> Last Friday the studio was served with its 2nd cease and desist order.  On Saturday 3 sheriffs, allegedly hostile, show up to physically close the studio.  The studio owner calls the media.  The media contacts the County to get their side of the story.  On Sunday the County contacts the studio and says there must have been a mistake and apologizes for the sheriffs showing up and the erroneous cease and desist orders.  Yesterday the County met with the studio owner and now the studio is open for both outdoor and indoor classes based on the Day Camp protocols, including 14 person cohorts, with full approval of the County.
> 
> Congrats to the studio owner for holding firm and fighting the government overreach and strong arm tactics against small business.


Excellent news! I just hope they got it before they installed that, now unnecessary, pole.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

N00B said:


> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/07/pfizer-vaccine-doses-trump/%3foutputType=amp
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like we’re in for a bumpy market on the 8th.


I'm hearing some chatter that the pediatric doses of the vaccine might delayed as well.  While optimistically there was some notion that perhaps spring of this year, it's now looking like late summer-early fall before a full roll out can be accomplished.  Maybe 16-18 year olds before then.









						When Will We Get a COVID-19 Vaccine for Children?
					

Though the vaccine may be distributed to certain adults within a few weeks, kids likely won’t have access to a vaccine until late 2021. Pediatric infectious disease doctors hope to see children included in clinical trials soon to help speed up the process and get kids vaccinated sooner.




					www.healthline.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

Everyone get their emergency alert?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336400605242294272


----------



## watfly (Dec 8, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Everyone get their emergency alert?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336400605242294272


I did, but mine was different.  It said "Buy toilet paper now".  Actually its already too late and has been for a couple weeks.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

California court has issued a tentative saying LA County acted arbitrarily in closing outdoor dining without support for that decision.  Still might change at hearing but if it holds it's bad news for Newsom's bans too.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336396015230849024


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

watfly said:


> I did, but mine was different.  It said "Buy toilet paper now".  Actually its already too late and has been for a couple weeks.



Wow,   if they really wanted to throw back they should have just said "Buy bottled water".  Remember that?  The good old days?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

More info on the side effects.  Better than the reports that some initial participants were being knocked out for a week but still nasty. Enough of a nasty experience that some people won't want to do the second after the first, or might be scared off unless forced. 

Here's where I'm at (though this could change as more information becomes available....I'm in one of the last groups so I have some time).....I'll likely get at least the first dose (I'd take the 2nd if forced by my employer).  Pediatric doses are delayed at least until summer, but right now I wouldn't let them take it even if forced by the schools (continue with remote), though I'd likely revise my priors if a non-mRNA vaccine becomes available (the Aztrazenca vaccine is also coming in as less efficient from the reporting right now)









						Here are the common side effects you should expect if you get Pfizer's coronavirus shot
					

Pfizer's vaccine has no major safety concerns but can cause temporary side effects like pain at the injection site, fatigue, and headaches.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## notintheface (Dec 8, 2020)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336060486853554178


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

notintheface said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336060486853554178


Oh EOTL....that's funny.


----------



## watfly (Dec 8, 2020)

notintheface said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336060486853554178


That and I've eaten something that was purported to be bacon wrapped hotdogs off the streets of TJ on multiple occasions.  Hence why I have no qualms about taking the vaccine, or worry that much about Covid.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 8, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Everyone get their emergency alert?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336400605242294272


Days ago (maybe yesterday?). We are SO ahead of the curve here in Santa Clara County, Grace. You and Clooney got nothin on us.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

Ruling is final.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336460136458506240


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

Given Dr. Ghaly's comments today that a lot of the closures don't have to do with science but they just want people to stay home, this leads to an avenue of attack against the state orders.


----------



## Lionel Hutz (Dec 8, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> though I'd likely revise my priors if a non-mRNA vaccine becomes available (the Aztrazenca vaccine is also coming in as less efficient from the reporting right now)


Help me understand your thnking here -- if given the choice today -- you would get the AZ vaccine before the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine? Also, if you had to take either Pfizer or Moderna vaccine -- why only get the first dose?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

Lionel Hutz said:


> Help me understand your thnking here -- if given the choice today -- you would get the AZ vaccine before the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine? Also, if you had to take either Pfizer or Moderna vaccine -- why only get the first dose?


a) there's some evidence for some people the first dose may provide partial protection (which for my age group is all I may need, particularly since we suspect I've had it).  
b) from the news report, it's the second dose which is producing much more severe reactions  As I said, for me I probably wouldn't put up much of a fight, if forced
c) the AZ is made with more traditional methods (which is why its the leading candidate for LDNs.....less storage and licensing issues).  It is also only 70% effective from early reports.  It is also producing fewer side effects from the early news reports.
d) but most importantly, the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines are made under the new mRNA techniques for which there haven't been (and cannot be) long term studies.  Given my life is more than 1/2 over, don't really care about myself.  But before I stick the kids, I'd want to be 100% sure, particularly since their risks and second effects from the virus are very minimal.  By the time we get to them, we'll have at least a year, though, to evaluate.


----------



## espola (Dec 8, 2020)

__





						Facebook
					






					www.facebook.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 8, 2020)

espola said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I get the sentiment but this list has already been debunked.    At the height of the Spanish Flu outbreak, 6K people a day were dying.  Also left off the San Francisco Earthquake, Hurricane Maria, and the 1928 hurricane,   If you switch to per capita, several of the flu outbreaks in the 20th century make the top 20 as do some of the various illness of the 18th and 19th century.  I get the sentiment but overall this is misleading, if not fake, news.  This one's been passed around by pro lockdowners on SM all day so you are a bit late to the party.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

Apparently pregnant women are also in the last tier because (something I didn’t know) pregnant women and toddlers/infants are the last on which the vaccines are tested (only when they are absolutely sure). If you or someone you know wants to get the vaccine real bad, don’t get pregnant in the coming months

also another way the experts might be messing this up on this one:  the uk, Canada and spain at least have said residents of ltc facilities followed by the aged will go first. CDC director renfield indicated that was likely how the us would go. But many states still have front line health care workers, including those under 40 and those that (since they’ve been exposed to it several times already) have already had it.  Many have front line responders (police) next instead of say aged in the home or teachers. If you believe other nations are getting it right, the us is not following their lead on this.  Is it because we want to further test on health care workers???


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 9, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ok, I'll do something a little easier than beds that makes the same point. Experts: Joe Biden (JB) and CDC Director Robert Redfield (R)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Time for an update. This is what I manually pulled (you can check these at (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)

The average of the first 8 days projected over the whole month would give
71,335 (Daily average: 2,301)

Initial projections
Biden: 250,000 (Daily average: 8,064)
Redfield: 200,000  (Daily average: 6,452)
Me: 62,000  (Daily average: 2,000)

To reach the projections we need the following average for 12/9 - 12/31
Biden: 10,069
Redfield: 7,895
Me: 1,895

We definitely had a jump in cases after the drop before Thanksgiving. At this point, cases are still rising and more states are rising than falling - several of the coastal states at a high rate. I expect the average to increase significantly before it drops. Also, CA and NY are rising quickly and with their populations, they can drive increases when many other states are decreasing. To get to 100,000 we'd need a daily average of 3,547 the rest of the month. I'll update again after data for the 16th.


DayDailyTotalAverageProjection12/112,6102,6102,61080,91012/222,8855,4952,74885,17312/332,8578,3522,78486,30412/442,63710,9892,74785,16512/552,19013,1792,63681,71012/661,11114,2902,38273,83212/771,52215,8122,25970,02512/882,59718,4092,30171,335

Cases


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

Playgrounds are open.  Guess the ski resort complaints were too  much for Newsom.  Between the cases striking down the outdoor dining ban and the religious worship cases, and with Biden now coming out saying schools should open within the first 100 days, we are running out of things to lockdown.  Oh yeah...wear masks.









						California reverses course, now allow playgrounds to remain open
					

Several high-powered critics had vocally complained about the playground order, saying coronavirus is not widely contracted outside on play structures.




					www.ktvu.com


----------



## dad4 (Dec 9, 2020)

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/covid_precaution_level.png


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/covid_precaution_level.png
> 
> 
> View attachment 9643


The funny thing is you and I actually agree on a lot of the policies.  I'd do an indoor mask mandate, ban indoor dining, bars, movie theatres, would like to ban worship indoors (but recognize that's unconstitutional so would go with a % limitation indoors along with other indoor businesses along with a singing ban), would open at least all the elementary schools and while banning tournaments would have allowed league play with no parents.  You and I just disagree where that would have led.  Case in point: Quebec which unlike Europe didn't relax and what's happening there now and the new lockdowns.


----------



## crush (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The funny thing is you and I actually agree on a lot of the policies.  I'd do an indoor mask mandate, ban indoor dining, bars, movie theatres, would like to ban worship indoors (but recognize that's unconstitutional so would go with a % limitation indoors along with other indoor businesses along with a singing ban), would open at least all the elementary schools and while banning tournaments would have allowed league play with no parents.  You and I just disagree where that would have led.  Case in point: Quebec which unlike Europe didn't relax and what's happening there now and the new lockdowns.


The sad thing is I disagree with you and Dad.  I usually GTFO with you Grace but I think this was all about ____________________ & _________________!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/covid_precaution_level.png
> 
> 
> View attachment 9643


Ha! Trouble is, EVERYONE has one of "those" now and they all are calibrated differently.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 9, 2020)

crush said:


> The sad thing is I disagree with you and Dad.  I usually GTFO with you Grace but I think this was all about ____________________ & _________________!


Crush, this if OffTopic2 - No holds barred. You can speak freely here. It's almost like you are in America . Actually, anonymous posting can bring out the worst in people with language usage far from how they speak in person. I try to avoid those people here the same way I would in person. While I may not read your every post - especially the long ones - I do appreciate that you are respectful.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

More bad vaccine news already hitting the papers (took 1 day)....hopefully this isn't found to be common or lots of people will be contraindicated because of allergies.....









						Allergy warning for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine after UK health workers with allergy history suffer reaction | CNN
					

People with a "significant history of allergic reactions" should not be given the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine, UK health authorities said Wednesday, after two healthcare workers had symptoms after receiving a shot the day before.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## dad4 (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The funny thing is you and I actually agree on a lot of the policies.  I'd do an indoor mask mandate, ban indoor dining, bars, movie theatres, would like to ban worship indoors (but recognize that's unconstitutional so would go with a % limitation indoors along with other indoor businesses along with a singing ban), would open at least all the elementary schools and while banning tournaments would have allowed league play with no parents.  You and I just disagree where that would have led.  Case in point: Quebec which unlike Europe didn't relax and what's happening there now and the new lockdowns.


Quebec?  They opened up restaurants and dining in late June.   They even had an outbreak in a karaoke bar- which sort of implies that the bar was open.









						COVID-19 Has Forced an Entire Canadian Province to Ban Karaoke
					

After an outbreak tied to a karaoke bar spread to at least 68 people, Quebec has banned the activity. Some Québécois karaoke fans are not happy.




					www.vice.com
				




How can you say Quebec never relaxed restrictions when they had dining, alcohol, and singing all in the same room?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Quebec?  They opened up restaurants and dining in late June.   They even had an outbreak in a karaoke bar- which sort of implies that the bar was open.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 Apologies, was misinformed by some righteous Canadians who had said they got it right and we Trumpy Americans had got it wrong.   Because it rang true, I made the mistake of believing them.   But you are correct, they did open up over the summer.  However, they have been closed since Oct 1. and still got their curve.









						Montreal’s Restaurant Lockdown Extended Once More, Now Into the New Year
					

But many owners have reportedly yet to receive the financial aid Quebec has promised




					montreal.eater.com


----------



## watfly (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Apparently pregnant women are also in the last tier because (something I didn’t know) pregnant women and toddlers/infants are the last on which the vaccines are tested (only when they are absolutely sure). If you or someone you know wants to get the vaccine real bad, don’t get pregnant in the coming months
> 
> also another way the experts might be messing this up on this one:  the uk, Canada and spain at least have said residents of ltc facilities followed by the aged will go first. CDC director renfield indicated that was likely how the us would go. But many states still have front line health care workers, including those under 40 and those that (since they’ve been exposed to it several times already) have already had it.  Many have front line responders (police) next instead of say aged in the home or teachers. If you believe other nations are getting it right, the us is not following their lead on this.  Is it because we want to further test on health care workers???


That's what I've been wondering...how are they handling those that have already had covid?  It seems to me they can stretch the vaccine much farther if they don't give it to those that already have antibodies, at least on first pass.

I'm going to pull a Dad4 here, while I don't think epidemiologists should setting health policy (too narrow perspective), I value epidemiologists opinions on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine.  I take any opinion with a grain of salt, but there seems to be significant consensus that the vaccine is safe.  The jury is still out on the safety for children, but I suspect by the time their turn comes we will have more information.  I likely will not be opposed to my kids getting it.   However, given the Covid risk to children and their ability to spread it I wonder how necessary, or effective, it will be to vaccinate kids if the adults have been vaccinated.  I suspect many schools may require the vaccination.  My only real concern about the Pfizer vaccine is the ability to keep it at the proper temperature and not destroy its effectiveness.

If the vast majority of adults are vaccinated by summer (or even by year end 2021), this will be one of the greatest medical triumphs ever.  By all historical measures this should have taken 5-10 years.  I'm a big fan of public/private partnerships, or in this case govt/public/private, and this is proof of how effective they can be, or in this produce case unprecedented results, a science miracle, if you will.  We can argue over the response to the virus so far, but if the vaccine works you can't in good faith deny that its a major achievement for the administration (yes the vaccine companies did all the heavy lifting)


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

watfly said:


> That's what I've been wondering...how are they handling those that have already had covid?  It seems to me they can stretch the vaccine much farther if they don't give it to those that already have antibodies, at least on first pass.
> 
> I'm going to pull a Dad4 here, while I don't think epidemiologists should setting health policy (too narrow perspective), I value epidemiologists opinions on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine.  I take any opinion with a grain of salt, but there seems to be significant consensus that the vaccine is safe.  The jury is still out on the safety for children, but I suspect by the time their turn comes we will have more information.  I likely will not be opposed to my kids getting it.   However, given the Covid risk to children and their ability to spread it I wonder how necessary, or effective, it will be to vaccinate kids if the adults have been vaccinated.  I suspect many schools may require the vaccination.  My only real concern about the Pfizer vaccine is the ability to keep it at the proper temperature and not destroy its effectiveness.
> 
> If the vast majority of adults are vaccinated by summer (or even by year end 2021), this will be one of the greatest medical triumphs ever.  By all historical measures this should have taken 5-10 years.  I'm a big fan of public/private partnerships, or in this case govt/public/private, and this is proof of how effective they can be, or in this case unprecedented results, a science miracle, if you will.  We can argue over the response to the virus so far, but if the vaccine works you can't in good faith deny that its a major achievement for the administration.


Agree with most of what you say, but the big caveat is the allergy news out of the UK.  Some of us were worried the problem with an mRNA vaccine would be autoimmune responses(and allergies are linked to that).  Hopefully these are just flukes (though coming 1 day after they started injecting people is not exactly reassuring, though its possible the reactions may be caused not by the mRNA but the other substances in the vaccine) and aren't wide spread, because if they are its a disaster in the making (yeah I know....just call me Eeyore).


----------



## watfly (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Agree with most of what you say, but the big caveat is the allergy news out of the UK.  Some of us were worried the problem with an mRNA vaccine would be autoimmune responses(and allergies are linked to that).  Hopefully these are just flukes (though coming 1 day after they started injecting people is not exactly reassuring) and aren't wide spread, because if they are its a disaster in the making (yeah I know....just call me Eeyore).


Listen the left stopped disparaging the vaccine after Biden won, can you not do the same thing?

The allergy issue doesn't really move the needle for me (pardon the pun), yet.  It doesn't surprise me that those with a "significant history of allergic reactions" might react unfavorably to the vaccine.  If your carrying an epi pen, you might want to opt out of getting the shot initially.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

watfly said:


> Listen the left stopped disparaging the vaccine after Biden won, can you not do the same thing?
> 
> The allergy issue doesn't really move the needle for me (pardon the pun), yet.  It doesn't surprise me that those with a "significant history of allergic reactions" might react unfavorably to the vaccine.  If your carrying an epi pen, you might want to opt out of getting the shot initially.


Like I said...call me Eeyore.  From where I'm coming from, I'm not going to listen to the so-called experts on masks, lockdowns, outdoor dining, youth sports, or schools without asking questions, so I'm certainly not going to give the experts or the Trump admin (just because it's red) a pass on the vaccine.  I think in the end the vaccines probably all pan out o.k., but I am concerned that there have been no long term studies on the mRNA process.  I would be much more comfortable (and have much fewer reservations) taking the regular vaccine.  (Note I also don't care if these questions don't make me popular because people (not saying it's you) just want the vaccine to make this over).

The allergy thing, though, is very concerning, particularly if they plan to mandate it.  I, for one, would be contraindicated.  I know at least 4 other people (including one of my parents) who would be too (and that would really crush him).


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Like I said...call me Eeyore.  From where I'm coming from, I'm not going to listen to the so-called experts on masks, lockdowns, outdoor dining, youth sports, or schools without asking questions, so I'm certainly not going to give the experts or the Trump admin (just because it's red) a pass on the vaccine.  I think in the end the vaccines probably all pan out o.k., but I am concerned that there have been no long term studies on the mRNA process.  I would be much more comfortable (and have much fewer reservations) taking the regular vaccine.  (Note I also don't care if these questions don't make me popular because people (not saying it's you) just want the vaccine to make this over).
> 
> The allergy thing, though, is very concerning, particularly if they plan to mandate it.  I, for one, would be contraindicated.  I know at least 4 other people (including one of my parents) who would be too (and that would really crush him).



Note too I am very very very very very pro vaccine, and if I thought it was constitutional, would remove even the religious exception for childhood vaccines.  My kids have all the vaccines and I'm current on all mine (including Shingles and pneumonia).  I really believe in vaccines, which should tell you something about my level of concern.  Again, I think, and hope and pray, in the end it pans out, but I'm not exactly surprised by the news that came out of the UK.


----------



## watfly (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Like I said...call me Eeyore.  From where I'm coming from, I'm not going to listen to the so-called experts on masks, lockdowns, outdoor dining, youth sports, or schools without asking questions, so I'm certainly not going to give the experts or the Trump admin (just because it's red) a pass on the vaccine.  I think in the end the vaccines probably all pan out o.k., but I am concerned that there have been no long term studies on the mRNA process.  I would be much more comfortable (and have much fewer reservations) taking the regular vaccine.  (Note I also don't care if these questions don't make me popular because people (not saying it's you) just want the vaccine to make this over).
> 
> The allergy thing, though, is very concerning, particularly if they plan to mandate it.  I, for one, would be contraindicated.  I know at least 4 other people (including one of my parents) who would be too (and that would really crush him).


I get it, I'm just giving you a hard time and explaining my position.  I need to get the shingles vaccine.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> More bad vaccine news already hitting the papers (took 1 day)....hopefully this isn't found to be common or lots of people will be contraindicated because of allergies.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Ugh. Assuming the vaccine is effective for older folks, getting a high percentage of older folks and front-line workers vaccinated by the end of February may squash any big surge of deaths from March forward. Fingers crossed this doesn’t derail/delay.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ugh. Assuming the vaccine is effective for older folks, getting a high percentage of older folks and front-line workers vaccinated by the end of February may squash any big surge of deaths from March forward. Fingers crossed this doesn’t derail/delay.


I'm still hoping its just a blip or the moderna turns out different.  This would really really crush my dad and for someone like him I'd say but for the allergy absolutely get it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 9, 2020)




----------



## N00B (Dec 9, 2020)

Not sure the relative bias of this source... googled bias and only looked at one report that indicated ‘leaning left’









						Coronavirus: California was faring better than the U.S. What happened?
					

The Golden State has now reported about 62.8 daily cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, a rounding error away from the national rate of 63.1 over that time.



					www.google.com
				




Bad news thread material... and the comparatives in the article between states are interesting if you know when they did or didn’t implement mitigation policies.  There wasn’t much if any mention of that variable in the comparisons.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 9, 2020)

N00B said:


> Not sure the relative bias of this source... googled bias and only looked at one report that indicated ‘leaning left’
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It's consistent with other data sources.  Upper midwest maxed out, so they are starting to fall, and CA numbers keep going up.  Eventually our daily rate passed the national average.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> It's consistent with other data sources.  Upper midwest maxed out, so they are starting to fall, and CA numbers keep going up.  Eventually our daily rate passed the national average.


I'd say there's a fair amount of seasonality in there. The coasts are pretty much the last areas of the US heading toward their "peak" for this wave.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

N00B said:


> Not sure the relative bias of this source... googled bias and only looked at one report that indicated ‘leaning left’
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Seasonality.  Compare to Florida the last 3 months which also had a summer wave and hasn't had nearly as many restrictions.  Virus is going to virus.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336836209033662464


----------



## dad4 (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Seasonality.  Compare to Florida the last 3 months which also had a summer wave and hasn't had nearly as many restrictions.  Virus is going to virus.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336836209033662464


Yes, there is a large seasonal element.

No, that does not mean a public health failure is inevitable.   It is just stupid fatalism to say "the virus is going to virus."

HIV is a virus, too.  That doesn't mean everyone should run out and infect each other.  You have a brain.  You're allowed to use it.

Returning to my bunker to ponder how long it will take the fools to all infect each other.....  Maybe I should use a difference equation this time.....  Could put it into excel.....  Maybe after a margarita....


----------



## N00B (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Returning to my bunker to ponder how long it will take the fools to all infect each other.....  Maybe I should use a difference equation this time.....  Could put it into excel.....  Maybe after a margarita....


Margarita? Sure!... but I think you ran the modified equation already, accounting for run rate of non-compliance and/or non-effective mitigation efforts. 200k cases... 100 days (many hospitalizations and deaths).

100 days sounds like a familiar sound bite for something else.  Guess worst case they’re also right about 100 days.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Yes, there is a large seasonal element.
> 
> No, that does not mean a public health failure is inevitable.   It is just stupid fatalism to say "the virus is going to virus."
> 
> ...


Margarita...no wonder we don't get a long....I'm a vodka girl....all that time in the Soviet Union/Russia....sipping a screwdriver right now

HIV is a virus that (once they could screen the blood supply) could be controlled by a condom and being more careful.  The Rona hasn't been able to be controlled by a mask.  Even someone as linear as you should be able to see the difference.

Except in countries that have gone the route of authoritarianism, or that have some sort of cross-immunity to the virus, public health measures have been an overwhelming failure.  You can blame the fools running around to infect each other, but whose the bigger fool- the fool or the policy maker that foolishly expects the fool to be an angel.  Like my abuela used to say: you can't expect the pig to learn to crow like the rooster.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Margarita...no wonder we don't get a long....I'm a vodka girl....all that time in the Soviet Union/Russia....sipping a screwdriver right now
> 
> HIV is a virus that (once they could screen the blood supply) could be controlled by a condom and being more careful.  The Rona hasn't been able to be controlled by a mask.  Even someone as linear as you should be able to see the difference.
> 
> Except in countries that have gone the route of authoritarianism, or that have some sort of cross-immunity to the virus, public health measures have been an overwhelming failure.  You can blame the fools running around to infect each other, but whose the bigger fool- the fool or the policy maker that foolishly expects the fool to be an angel.  Like my abuela used to say: you can't expect the pig to learn to crow like the rooster.


I can totally blame the fools.  But not as much as I blame those who openly encourage them in their foolishness.

 "The virus is going to virus"?   That is a pathetic misstatement, whether viewed as science or as grammar.  Nouns gotta noun and verbs gotta verb, right?

The virus is what we make of it.  And, right now, we are choosing to make a mass death event out of it because we are too spoiled to go without minor luxuries like restaurant meals.


----------



## N00B (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Margarita...no wonder we don't get a long....I'm a vodka girl....all that time in the Soviet Union/Russia....sipping a screwdriver right now


Read that the Sputnik Vaccine guidance is no alcohol for 2 months after dosage... and compliance is an issue as a result.

Hope the science doesn’t support that for other vaccines in the pipeline.  If so, compliance will be low along wif efficiency. (Educated guess... cheers!)


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I can totally blame the fools.  But not as much as I blame those who openly encourage them in their foolishness.
> 
> "The virus is going to virus"?   That is a pathetic misstatement, whether viewed as science or as grammar.  Nouns gotta noun and verbs gotta verb, right?
> 
> The virus is what we make of it.  And, right now, we are choosing to make a mass death event out of it because we are too spoiled to go without minor luxuries like restaurant meals.


Ohhhh ooohhh...teacher's gonna give me a bad grammar grade    

That's where your fallacy is: the illusion of control.  Minor things like masks and indoor restaurant meals aren't going to cut it.....if it were LA of all places by now would be under control.  Snap out of your illusion and get rid of that blue pill you are clutching in the bunker.  The choice is to go full on authoritarian (like the PRC, Australia or New Zealand) or to accept that while we might be able to help out on the margins, nothing is really going to stop this short of mass vaccination.  All we can do is mitigate....nothing we do short of vaccine is going to control it.

Our history with viruses is very long and very complicated and spans millions of years and longer than civilization has been around.  It's a complete fallacy to assume that just in the last 40 years we've finally arisen over them.   You are completely delusion to see the world burning around you and think that the answer is we all need to mask harder.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 9, 2020)

N00B said:


> Margarita? Sure!... but I think you ran the modified equation already, accounting for run rate of non-compliance and/or non-effective mitigation efforts. 200k cases... 100 days (many hospitalizations and deaths).
> 
> 100 days sounds like a familiar sound bite for something else.  Guess worst case they’re also right about 100 days.


100 days of masks isn’t such a bad idea.  Combine it with cancelling trips and closing indoor gathering spaces.  We might actually get somewhere.

My bet is that we’ll get half hearted compliance on all of that.  We will get up to 25-30 million confirmed cases, and it will start to slow.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> 100 days of masks isn’t such a bad idea.  Combine it with cancelling trips and closing indoor gathering spaces.  We might actually get somewhere.
> 
> My bet is that we’ll get half hearted compliance on all of that.  We will get up to 25-30 million confirmed cases, and it will start to slow.


Mask harder is funny....how long has California had a mandate?  How long has Los Angeles?


----------



## dad4 (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Mask harder is funny....how long has California had a mandate?  How long has Los Angeles?


You mean a paper mandate, or one that is actually enforced?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You mean a paper mandate, or one that is actually enforced?


Because I knew you'd find it amusing, the weekend before Thanksgiving my elder had to go into the local market to buy some pies.  He was in there for about a half hour.  I watched at least 300 people go in and out, looking at each one as they went.  Store policy was to wear masks (they even yelled at my son when he got out of the distanced checkout line because he thought the express line was open when there was no express line).  None of them weren't wearing a mask except a 4 year old who even my son gave the evil eye.

Last Friday we were in a park in Van Nuys for my son's GK training.  Given the new Rona policies, they wanted me to sit in the car so I did, working on my phone.  Must have watched 50-60 people go past the car making a loop round the park....except for one guy using the chin strap while drinking his coke, all of these people, spaced out, in the open air using their masks.  Couple even wore face shields (no gloves this time though).

Last Monday my younger had to get an xray.  I showed up with an N95 that has a very small vent.  Nope I was told right before entering the building.  Had to put a surgical mask on top of it.

How's the mask requirement not being enforced?  Sure, there are people here and there outside in the parks for example not wearing them, but a mask in the open air while distanced is stupid and "mask harder" isn't going to make any difference there.  The other place is in private residence...sorry but people aren't going to wear masks when socializing or going into people's home.  A mask policy, unless you are going to send the police door to door checking, isn't going to do it.  And of course the rich and powerful like our dear governor or dear Speaker or dear Senator are always going to make exceptions for themselves.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You mean a paper mandate, or one that is actually enforced?


p.s. how's Santa Clara doing?  They've had a mask mandate since May?  Correct me if I'm wrong please, but did they ever go back to indoor dining?


----------



## N00B (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> 100 days of masks isn’t such a bad idea.  Combine it with cancelling trips and closing indoor gathering spaces.  We might actually get somewhere.
> 
> My bet is that we’ll get half hearted compliance on all of that.  We will get up to 25-30 million confirmed cases, and it will start to slow.


Wasn't implying that masks/facial coverings are a bad idea.  Death rate in CA supports that action alone (possibly viral load impact on outcomes instead of #of cases).

I am suggesting that 100 days is not an arbitrary choice, but one that is predicated upon assumptions of vaccine roll out or heard immunity.  Both of which are expected in 100 days of Inauguration Day.  Ie a policy that is politically guaranteed to be seen as effective, but is roughly equivalent to a logical tautology.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

N00B said:


> Hope the science doesn’t support that for other vaccines in the pipeline.  If so, compliance will be low along wif efficiency. (Educated guess... cheers!)


That's a deal breaker for me.  The occasional drink is the only thing that's gotten me through in the insanity of this year.  I'm also pretty sure that if the schools are still closed it's unconstitutional....cruel and unusual punishment under the VIII Amendment.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Because I knew you'd find it amusing, the weekend before Thanksgiving my elder had to go into the local market to buy some pies.  He was in there for about a half hour.  I watched at least 300 people go in and out, looking at each one as they went.  Store policy was to wear masks (they even yelled at my son when he got out of the distanced checkout line because he thought the express line was open when there was no express line).  None of them weren't wearing a mask except a 4 year old who even my son gave the evil eye.
> 
> Last Friday we were in a park in Van Nuys for my son's GK training.  Given the new Rona policies, they wanted me to sit in the car so I did, working on my phone.  Must have watched 50-60 people go past the car making a loop round the park....except for one guy using the chin strap while drinking his coke, all of these people, spaced out, in the open air using their masks.  Couple even wore face shields (no gloves this time though).
> 
> ...


Did you notice that you assume we will be socializing in each other’s homes?

That is how it spreads, you know.  Why do you assume that we all will do the exact thing that spreads the virus? 

That’s what I meant by we are spoiled.  We can’t imagine life without dinner parties, restaurants, and casinos.  So, after fighting against masks for several months, we finally put our masks on.  Then we invite people over for Thanksgiving and Christmas so we can infect our friends and family.

Masks are not, by themselves, enough.  We need to do more than that.   But people here don’t seem to be very willing to do even half of what is recommended.


----------



## N00B (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I'm also pretty sure that if the schools are still closed it's unconstitutional....cruel and unusual punishment under the VIII Amendment.


Damaging is my opinion.  Assume that qualifies as cruel and concede that these times are unusual.

We’ve discussed the mental duress the current environment may have on children, but some (EOTL) have chosen to berate parents on this forum for for their personal stories.

I have my own recent experience with the damaging impact of policy on kids.

My middle-schooler (non-soccer player) was in a group chat with other remote students when one of them expressed suicidal thoughts.  

Thanks in part to previous child safety training, I made sure it was reported  appropriately for potential intervention, if necessary.

Folks, this is more than COVID in terms of impact.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Did you notice that you assume we will be socializing in each other’s homes?
> 
> That is how it spreads, you know.  Why do you assume that we all will do the exact thing that spreads the virus?
> 
> ...


I've long said distancing is much more important than masks.

But to your point, not sure what you can do about that.  The modest measures that you claim to support certainly aren't going to cut it.  Short of an Australian style police state and people narking on each other, people are social creatures....they are going to socialize...you are asking people to give up millions of years of evolution and not be human.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> p.s. how's Santa Clara doing?  They've had a mask mandate since May?  Correct me if I'm wrong please, but did they ever go back to indoor dining?


SCC opened indoor dining from Oct 14 to Nov 16.

It more than tripled our case numbers, just in time to kick start the Thanksgiving spike. 

You are confusing mask mandates with mask usage.  The second is necessary.  The first is not.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

N00B said:


> Damaging is my opinion.  Assume that qualifies as cruel and concede that these times are unusual.
> 
> We’ve discussed the mental duress the current environment may have on children, but some (EOTL) have chosen to berate parents on this forum for for their personal stories.
> 
> ...


Yeah, my niece attempted suicide.  My son's girlfriend's sister went full on anorexia.  A water polo teammates sibling shot himself.  All had mental issues, but this probably wouldn't have resulted without policies essentially asking humans to turn off millions of years of evolution and not be human.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> SCC opened indoor dining from Oct 14 to Nov 16.
> 
> It more than tripled our case numbers, just in time to kick start the Thanksgiving spike.
> 
> You are confusing mask mandates with mask usage.  The second is necessary.  The first is not.


Again, short of a police state that raids folks homes checking their mask usage and social distancing, you aren't going to be able to control human beings and their hundreds of years of evolution that makes them want to seek out human comfort.  You are asking for the impossible, which is why you are frustrated in the futility.

p.s. to see the limits of Karening and shaming, I highly recommend the series on youtube to you: CartNarq or Los Cartos Narcos.


----------



## N00B (Dec 9, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Did you notice that you assume we will be socializing in each other’s homes?
> 
> That is how it spreads, you know.  Why do you assume that we all will do the exact thing that spreads the virus?


Or it’s 5min with 20’ in an indoor space like the South Korean case example just published... and essential things the the grocery store or delivery services (most studies on surface contamination are based not on the delivery person contaminating package, but the origin and transit time... and don’t include door dash or same day delivery options).


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 9, 2020)

N00B said:


> I
> Or it’s 5min with 20’ in an indoor space like the South Korean case example just published... and essential things the the grocery store or delivery services (most studies on surface contamination are based not on the delivery person contaminating package, but the origin and transit time... and don’t include door dash or same day delivery options).


Wow just looked up that one.  It would explain a lot about the summer outbreaks in Fl-LA-TX-Az-SoCal too given airconditioning.  (Side note: then I don't understand how airtravel isn't a highly dangerous superspreader possibility....yeah yeah yeah filters in modern aircraft but people are constantly removing their masks and can't reasonably be expected not to fiddle with them or drink for 2-4 hours, let alone a long haul flight....if someone's sitting right behind you with the Rona, I can't see how you don't get infected).


----------



## N00B (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Wow just looked up that one.  It would explain a lot about the summer outbreaks in Fl-LA-TX-Az-SoCal too given airconditioning.  (Side note: then I don't understand how airtravel isn't a highly dangerous superspreader possibility....yeah yeah yeah filters in modern aircraft but people are constantly removing their masks and can't reasonably be expected not to fiddle with them or drink for 2-4 hours, let alone a long haul flight....if someone's sitting right behind you with the Rona, I can't see how you don't get infected).


To the side note: You’d have to run the same airflow analysis in the passenger cabin of a typical airplane to make any suppositions about that environment.  My understanding is that the rate of air exchange is much higher on passenger planes than that of typical commercial ac units in an enclosed space.


----------



## N00B (Dec 9, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Wow just looked up that one.  It would explain a lot about the summer outbreaks in Fl-LA-TX-Az-SoCal too given airconditioning.  (Side note: then I don't understand how airtravel isn't a highly dangerous superspreader possibility....yeah yeah yeah filters in modern aircraft but people are constantly removing their masks and can't reasonably be expected not to fiddle with them or drink for 2-4 hours, let alone a long haul flight....if someone's sitting right behind you with the Rona, I can't see how you don't get infected).


For AZ, FL, LA and parts of TX, relative humidity’s impact on viral sustainability in a given environment is significant and likely relates to spread. In some of those regions swamp coolers as an alternative/suppliant to AC in order augment the relative humidity may also be a factor, depending on prevalence.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I've long said distancing is much more important than masks.
> 
> But to your point, not sure what you can do about that.  The modest measures that you claim to support certainly aren't going to cut it.  Short of an Australian style police state and people narking on each other, people are social creatures....they are going to socialize...you are asking people to give up millions of years of evolution and not be human.


You’re using the “everyone does it“ defense.

No, not everyone does it.  If you’re still hosting or attending indoor social events, then enjoy the lockdown.  You helped cause it.

I still believe that masks and closing indoor venues would have worked during the summer if we had actually done it.  You’re right that we would also need to impose fines for holding indoor gatherings.  I’m ok with that.  It’s better than what we have now.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You mean a paper mandate, or one that is actually enforced?


You live in LA Co?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You’re using the “everyone does it“ defense.
> 
> No, not everyone does it.  If you’re still hosting or attending indoor social events, then enjoy the lockdown.  You helped cause it.
> 
> I still believe that masks and closing indoor venues would have worked during the summer if we had actually done it.  You’re right that we would also need to impose fines for holding indoor gatherings.  I’m ok with that.  It’s better than what we have now.


if you believe that you are living in an illusion because la county did that.

its not just imposing fines because la city also said they’d shut off the water of large indoor gatherings. It’s that to actually control that activity, which is behind closed doors, you need to create a police state: people reporting on each other, police checking people on the street where they are going (which is hard if you are allowing people out of their house to exercise or go to work....they’ll just lie), and/or police going door to door without a warrant to inspect people (in this country we have a constitution that has a problem with this)

YOU are confusing morality and public policy. The one hopes people can overcome as best they can millions of years of evolution recognizing even the dem leaders can’t do it and have repeatedly found cheating. The second bases it’s policy in reality. You are a secret totalitarian...you just don’t recognize it or refuse to admit it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You’re using the “everyone does it“ defense.
> 
> No, not everyone does it.  If you’re still hosting or attending indoor social events, then enjoy the lockdown.  You helped cause it.
> 
> I still believe that masks and closing indoor venues would have worked during the summer if we had actually done it.  You’re right that we would also need to impose fines for holding indoor gatherings.  I’m ok with that.  It’s better than what we have now.


You like pounding that square peg into a round hole.

Closing biz down for 100 days? You actually advocate that? Pretty easy when your paycheck is guaranteed. Absolute madness.

From the San Mateo chief health official.

_Morrow, a physician with a public health degree who has been San Mateo County's health officer since 1992, also has doubts about the new restrictions imposed by Newsom. "*I am aware of no data that some of the business activities on which even greater restrictions are being put into place with this new order are the major drivers of transmission,*" he says. "In fact, I think these greater restrictions are likely *to drive more activity indoors, a much riskier [environment*]….I also believe these greater restrictions *will result in more job loss, more hunger, more despair and desperation …and more death from causes other than COVID. And I wonder, are these premature deaths any less worrisome than COVID deaths?"*_

And then your state guy GHALY for health and human services in CA had this to say.


_A reporter from the Los Angeles Times asked Ghaly, “There have been some criticisms, including from the Assistant Secretary of HHS, who said on Fox News, ‘I don’t know of any data that says we need to shut down outdoor dining.’ I’m wondering if you can respond to that?” Ghaly replied:_



> _“As it relates to the question about indoor dining or outdoor dining, I think one thing that I have tried to message and emphasize is that right now we’re seeing such high levels of transmission that…every activity that can be done differently and keep us at our homes, not mixing with others, is safer. Those are going to be the tools that help us get this under control.
> “So the decision to include, among other sectors, outdoor dining, and limiting that, turning to restaurants to deliver and provide takeout options instead, *really has to do with the goal of trying to keep people at home, not a comment on the relative safety of outdoor dining*._


You will not get people to shut down biz for 100 days. Financially it cannot happen. You will not get people to just stay in their homes for 100 days as well. Nor will you get people to pull kids out of schools (those that are open) and have their kids be at home for 100 days, etc.

More and more authorities will not enforce it either.








						Southern California Sheriffs Rebel Over Gavin Newsom's New Stay-at-Home Order
					

Increasingly, it looks like California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) won't have the muscle to impose his latest COVID-19 stay-at-home order....




					reason.com
				




It is amazing how you and others think that hey this sounds like a good WORKABLE idea.


----------



## crush (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, my niece attempted suicide.  My son's girlfriend's sister went full on anorexia.  A water polo teammates sibling shot himself.  All had mental issues, but this probably wouldn't have resulted without policies essentially asking humans to turn off millions of years of evolution and not be human.


My dd has a friend who is so beautiful.  However, she thinks she's fat and makes herself puke.  She has been alone for the last 5 months.  Her parents marriage was horrible before Rona and now it's over.  Dad left for a 28 year old model.  He did leave a lot of cash behind but this girl needs love like no other.  My dd has been helping her behind the scenes.  I love my dd for caring for friends.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> if you believe that you are living in an illusion because la county did that.
> 
> its not just imposing fines because la city also said they’d shut off the water of large indoor gatherings. It’s that to actually control that activity, which is behind closed doors, you need to create a police state: people reporting on each other, police checking people on the street where they are going (which is hard if you are allowing people out of their house to exercise or go to work....they’ll just lie), and/or police going door to door without a warrant to inspect people (in this country we have a constitution that has a problem with this)
> 
> YOU are confusing morality and public policy. The one hopes people can overcome as best they can millions of years of evolution recognizing even the dem leaders can’t do it and have repeatedly found cheating. The second bases it’s policy in reality. You are a secret totalitarian...you just don’t recognize it or refuse to admit it.


LA county made a show of a few people.  They did not actually enforce the rule against indoor gatherings. 

We had a great chance this summer to get the virus under control.  We needed leadership from both parties to explain the science and the policies to the public.  Instead, we wasted the entire summer arguing about _whether_ to wear masks and _whether_ to shut down known spreader locations.  So we had a mid-summer surge at exactly the time we should have been watching cases fall close to zero.

By now, it’s been 11 months.  Casinos are still open.  We still have indoor church services.  Take 300 elderly people, put them together in a poorly ventilated room for 60 to 90 minutes, and have them gamble or sing.  Why?  Are we truly incapable of predicting what will happen?

And don’t give me the “millions of years of evolution“ BS.  New Zealanders are not a separate species, and they don’t have a police state.  They managed it.  We did not.  If we as a people are screwing this up, it is because we as a people are doing something wrong.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> LA county made a show of a few people.  They did not actually enforce the rule against indoor gatherings.
> 
> We had a great chance this summer to get the virus under control.  We needed leadership from both parties to explain the science and the policies to the public.  Instead, we wasted the entire summer arguing about _whether_ to wear masks and _whether_ to shut down known spreader locations.  So we had a mid-summer surge at exactly the time we should have been watching cases fall close to zero.
> 
> ...


New Zealanders: 1. Have an island, 2. Were spared an early outbreak, and 3. Have engaged in some police state activities including mass lockdowns where people aren’t allowed from their homes, free speech and assembly restrictions, closing of borders so their own citizens were caught overseas, mandatory quarantines and enforced testing (the nz prime minister was even caught on tape joking that oh yeah we aren’t really forcing people to take the tests but if they want to get out of lockdown they’ll take it)

1. you say you are for minimal restrictions but it’s becoming quite apparent (using the tricks of the trade of other past totalitarians) that you’ll just say that (whether to justify it to yourself or others). You really are a closet totalitarian.
2. You are delusional. La has done everything you said you wanted.  Now where are we?  Now saying you want to stop private gatherings is akin to asking for very intrusive, possibly unconstitutional restrictions.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> You live in LA Co?


Santa Clara.  Masks didn’t really take off until August-September around here.  It took 6 months for it to happen.

The change was mostly driven by stores, under threat of closing if they didn’t enforce masks on customers.  And from there it filtered to the rest of society.

But we had quite a few outbreaks at construction sites, where people were too manly to wear masks.  The county started closing them down after each outbreak “for cleaning”.   The time cost of shutdowns was enough to convince construction companies that they should enforce masks on employees.  But we had to infect a few hundred people first.

I know it probably seems like the world is shut down and everyone is wearing masks.  Count the number of indoor gathering places that are still open.  Casinos, churches, big box stores, bars and restaurants (in some places), private parties.  Then add in the high density outdoor places like protests.  We are still giving ourselves plenty of opportunities to spread this.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

crush said:


> My dd has a friend who is so beautiful.  However, she thinks she's fat and makes herself puke.  She has been alone for the last 5 months.  Her parents marriage was horrible before Rona and now it's over.  Dad left for a 28 year old model.  He did leave a lot of cash behind but this girl needs love like no other.  My dd has been helping her behind the scenes.  I love my dd for caring for friends.


one of the things I can’t begin to comprehend is being stuck working at home with a spouse you are having issues with 24/7, with no place to go for a break.



dad4 said:


> I know it probably seems like the world is shut down and everyone is wearing masks.  Count the number of indoor gathering places that are still open.  Casinos, churches, big box stores, bars and restaurants (in some places), private parties.  Then add in the high density outdoor places like protests.  We are still giving ourselves plenty of opportunities to spread this.


I thought you were for minimal shutting indoor dining+masks?  Now you are saying you’d shut all these down too?  Also never mind the churches (which btw under the ny decision are suing California and the lower courts have been instructed by scotus to apply their reasoning in the ny case)...gonna set the constitution aside there?  Protests...gonna set aside the constitution there AND violently suppress the blm protests there?  And have police go door to door for private parties without a warrant....gonna set aside the constitution there. You ARE a closet totalitarian. The mask has finally slipped so to speak


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> New Zealanders: 1. Have an island, 2. Were spared an early outbreak, and 3. Have engaged in some police state activities including mass lockdowns where people aren’t allowed from their homes, free speech and assembly restrictions, closing of borders so their own citizens were caught overseas, mandatory quarantines and enforced testing (the nz prime minister was even caught on tape joking that oh yeah we aren’t really forcing people to take the tests but if they want to get out of lockdown they’ll take it)
> 
> 1. you say you are for minimal restrictions but it’s becoming quite apparent (using the tricks of the trade of other past totalitarians) that you’ll just say that (whether to justify it to yourself or others). You really are a closet totalitarian.
> 2. You are delusional. La has done everything you said you wanted.  Now where are we?  Now saying you want to stop private gatherings is akin to asking for very intrusive, possibly unconstitutional restrictions.


New Zealand is a democracy.  Not a dictatorship.  

And I have no problem at all with a police officer giving you a fine for holding a dinner party during a pandemic.  Make it proportionate to assets to make sure it stings.

You say LA has done everything I wanted.  How many flights out of LAX today?  How many casinos open near you?  When did LA close down indoor church servicess?  How many cars on the freeways this morning?  How many fines has LA given for private gatherings?  

The fact that you assume private gatherings will occur is telling.  LA is a mess for covid because the residents of LA are unwilling to follow the rules.  You can‘t bring yourself to cancel the dinner party until the police are actually knocking on your door and checking identification.  Even then you need to ask how large the fine is.  

It’s as though the possibility of just doing the right thing is totally alien to you.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> It’s as though the possibility of just doing the right thing is totally alien to you.


Not alien just goes against millions of years of evolution. Dude your dem leadership can’t even follow the rules: here in California our governors, our senator, our speaker of the house...let alone our la supervisor who says outdoor dining is dangerous and then goes out to dine..and all the dozens of others around the country.

glad we are past the “I’m just for common sense reasonable limitations” phase of your screed. No you aren’t. You are talking now about even shutting down air travel out of lax???

what you want is stomping on the us constitution. That’s totalitarianism even if democracy remains. Democracy and freedom are not the same thing, but then with your math background you probably never took political philosophy or read basic Aristotle. 

Also btw be careful what you say dude...if your students find out you want to violently suppress blm you might find yourself with issues.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You’re right that we would also need to impose fines for holding indoor gatherings.  I’m ok with that.  It’s better than what we have now.


I'd guess this means a larger police presence and enforcement in areas where the virus is spreading the most. Aren't lower socio-economic neighborhoods spreading the virus at a higher rate? That's just not going to happen.

I feel like your approach to improving the rate of infections is flawed. With every problem, you have a set of initial conditions. If assumptions regarding initial conditions are incorrect, you are unlikely to come up with an optimal solution. "If people would just listen" is not a solution and it's not leadership - it's a failure to understand the people you are addressing.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'd guess this means a larger police presence and enforcement in areas where the virus is spreading the most. Aren't lower socio-economic neighborhoods spreading the virus at a higher rate? That's just not going to happen.
> 
> I feel like your approach to improving the rate of infections is flawed. With every problem, you have a set of initial conditions. If assumptions regarding initial conditions are incorrect, you are unlikely to come up with an optimal solution. "If people would just listen" is not a solution and it's not leadership - it's a failure to understand the people you are addressing.


I was writing as an individual to other individuals.  

If we insist on following health guidance only when a policeman is standing over us, then we are screwed.  But that’s a problem with us, not with the policeman.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I was writing as an individual to other individuals.
> 
> If we insist on following health guidance only when a policeman is standing over us, then we are screwed.  But that’s a problem with us, not with the policeman.


No and again that is a problem of you and others failing to realize people are not going to do what you want to do. IE shut it all down. Most people cannot afford to do so, socially people cannot and will not do it. People will not allow their kids to miss out on more education, and the list goes on. 

Coming up with unworkable solutions as was pointed out above is not leadership or problem solving.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Coming up with unworkable solutions as was pointed out above is not leadership or problem solving.


Not just unworkable but from the ideas he’s finally put on the table illegal and unconstitutional.  Sorry australia and New Zealand might have gone along with it but I’m not going to tear up the Constitution for the Rona. For those that are so willing to do that: would you have also supported Trump declaring it was unsafe to hold an election and postponing it a year?


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Not just unworkable but from the ideas he’s finally put on the table illegal and unconstitutional.  Sorry australia and New Zealand might have gone along with it but I’m not going to tear up the Constitution for the Rona. For those that are so willing to do that: would you have also supported Trump declaring it was unsafe to hold an election and postponing it a year?


I am not saying it as policy.  I am saying it as individual responsibility.

We have clogged ICUs because people like Hound are too spoiled to give up their restaurants and dinner parties.

Then he defends it with the curious claim that closing Applebee's is tantamount to martial law.  

As individuals, your actions are boosting Team Rona.  And that will continue to be true for as long as you are visiting restaurants and attending indoor social gatherings.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> If we insist on following health guidance only when a policeman is standing over us, then we are screwed.  But that’s a problem with us, not with the policeman.


No, it's a problem with trying to impose restrictions without getting "buy-in" from those restricted. That doesn't work well in the USA. Throw in some arbitrariness and leaders ignoring their own restrictions and many people are going to make their own decisions.


----------



## notintheface (Dec 10, 2020)

“There Was A Pandemic?” What Life Is Like In Countries Without COVID
					

COVID infections are low to nonexistent in several countries, where life looks practically normal. Some people even occasionally forget there’s a pandemic going on.




					www.buzzfeednews.com
				




That was infuriating to read. The lack of a comprehensive top-down national strategy in the USA that wound up with hundreds of thousands of people needlessly dying is going to be written about in history books forever.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I am not saying it as policy.  I am saying it as individual responsibility.


Well, someone's got to get out the message right?  And what have the D leadership done?  Been caught cheating at every turn.  Same with the media and some so-called health experts.  You think anyone is going to listen to them when they engage in that behavior?  If not policy, your entire hope is wishing that people would be better than they are.  You may as well wish for Jesus to come back and tell people to mask up....maybe his masks will even work better.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

notintheface said:


> “There Was A Pandemic?” What Life Is Like In Countries Without COVID
> 
> 
> COVID infections are low to nonexistent in several countries, where life looks practically normal. Some people even occasionally forget there’s a pandemic going on.
> ...


So the solution is suspend the Constitution and become a police state?  The only thing you'd get here is a civil war EOTL.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 10, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'd guess this means a larger *police presence and enforcement in areas where the virus is spreading the most. Aren't lower socio-economic neighborhoods spreading the virus at a higher rate?* That's just not going to happen.


Don't open up that can


----------



## watfly (Dec 10, 2020)

I'm very concerned about the current status of the virus based on the rise in hospitalizations.  SD County is seeing unprecedented levels of hospitalizations.  As a result, we're scaling back a bit on some of our activities.  For the last 9 months we've maintained a good balance of Covid safety and mental health.  We've not followed the letter of the law by any stretch, but followed common sense, substantive measures, as has our family and the majority of our close friends.  While I know Dad4 believes its just a matter of time before I become a superspreader, to date no one in my extended family (other than a couple, college age nephews in Utah) and friends have contracted the virus.  A few employees got the virus, but not from work.

I still stand firmly that kids should have the option to be in school full-time.  Kids are much safer in school then at home, particularly, those kids from lower socioeconomic backgrounds (not even considering the mental damages and long-term educational aspects) .   Speaking of that, and I don't want to sound insensitive, nor place blame, but it sounds like lower socioeconomic communities are a hot bed for the virus.  I don't believe the hot bed is coming from the conscientious lockdown skeptics like myself based on actual results.

We're a diverse cultural and political country based on individual freedoms and individual acceptance of risks, which is what makes us great; however, it also makes us less than ideal to respond to this health crisis particularly with our long borders and individual state rights.  A homogenous population is much easier to control and even easier if your an island.

You can employ all the mental gymnastics you want to justify lockdowns, but the proof is in the pudding, US and European style lockdowns don't work.  They don't work just based on the characteristics of our country and dictating them without buy-in and with wholly arbitrary, non-scientific, mandates only compounds the problem.  Lockdowns in most areas simply lack credibility.

I admit that I previously didn't see the vaccine as the panacea, I thought therapeutics were as, or more, important than the vaccine.  I've changed my mind, I do believe vaccines are the panacea.  Unfortunately, given the recent issue with allergic reactions and people's response to that news, I'm skeptical that the Pfizer vaccine is the panacea.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> No, it's a problem with trying to impose restrictions without getting "buy-in" from those restricted. That doesn't work well in the USA. Throw in some arbitrariness and leaders ignoring their own restrictions and many people are going to make their own decisions.


So, if Trump and Newsom are idiots, then I should just give up and make my friends and neighbors sick?

That’s a lot of disease.  Maybe we could choose to do better than that.  



Grace T. said:


> Well, someone's got to get out the message right?  And what have the D leadership done?  Been caught cheating at every turn.  Same with the media and some so-called health experts.  You think anyone is going to listen to them when they engage in that behavior?  If not policy, your entire hope is wishing that people would be better than they are.  You may as well wish for Jesus to come back and tell people to mask up....maybe his masks will even work better.


The word is out by now.   It’s been out for months.   If you or I are still having friends over for drinks, that’s our fault, not Newsom’s.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 10, 2020)

notintheface said:


> “There Was A Pandemic?” What Life Is Like In Countries Without COVID
> 
> 
> COVID infections are low to nonexistent in several countries, where life looks practically normal. Some people even occasionally forget there’s a pandemic going on.
> ...


So Europe was always used as an example of doing it right.

Take a look at them. They are in the same spot we are. Different leaders, different policies, and yet the results are the same.

It tells you that the virus will spread despite gov policy.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 10, 2020)

watfly said:


> We're a diverse cultural and political country based on individual freedoms and individual acceptance of risks, which is what makes us great; however, it also makes us less than ideal to respond to this health crisis particularly with our long borders and individual state rights.  A homogenous population is much easier to control and even easier if your an island.


Yes, these are the "people" we need to convince.


----------



## notintheface (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> So the solution is suspend the Constitution and become a police state?  The only thing you'd get here is a civil war EOTL.


The solution is to act like a fucking real government and a real country made up of adults and quit the whiny pussy-assed "but muh freedumbs" shit. Imagine some bad actor just salivating over the prospect of some kind of real bio warfare inflicted upon this shithole of a country, nononono.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> So, if Trump and Newsom are idiots, then I should just give up and make my friends and neighbors sick?
> 
> That’s a lot of disease.  Maybe we could choose to do better than that.
> 
> ...





dad4 said:


> So, if Trump and Newsom are idiots, then I should just give up and make my friends and neighbors sick?
> 
> That’s a lot of disease.  Maybe we could choose to do better than that.
> 
> ...



Each of us has got to choose as far as they can reasonably tolerate.  As you say, the word is out now.  If people weren't going to listen after all that, they aren't going to listen (particularly given the bad examples, right and left).  What you are left with is force, hence your flirtation with totalitarianism.  You are there, you just don't want to say it....you say fines but then no not really....it's where you are.


----------



## notintheface (Dec 10, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> So Europe was always used as an example of doing it right.
> 
> Take a look at them. They are in the same spot we are. Different leaders, different policies, and yet the results are the same.
> 
> It tells you that the virus will spread despite gov policy.


Except, you know, for this:



			https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2020-12/9/21/asset/f64965590d59/sub-buzz-137-1607548650-14.jpg?downsize=1040%3A%2A&output-quality=auto&output-format=auto
		


Yeah, looks pretty miserable to me.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

notintheface said:


> The solution is to act like a fucking real government and a real country made up of adults and quit the whiny pussy-assed "but muh freedumbs" shit. Imagine some bad actor just salivating over the prospect of some kind of real bio warfare inflicted upon this shithole of a country, nononono.


At least you are on the record of wanting to suspend the constitution and cause a civil war.  The Rona will go great in those circumstances.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

re kids.....









						Exclusive: We finally know how much kids spread coronavirus. Here’s how it can help schools.
					

Big decisions around COVID-19 and children have been heavy on politics and short on science. New large-scale studies are changing that.




					www.nationalgeographic.com


----------



## notintheface (Dec 10, 2020)

Meanwhile, here's Texas lining up for food:



			https://dmn-dallas-news-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com/resizer/0PVMyJHMiJ4fmEeOQmPaXfHq4Bc=/1660x934/smart/filters:no_upscale()/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/dmn/IMERUXZXJ5HIFJIH525R5Z4APY.jpg
		


woo, USA, USA, USA, USA.


----------



## notintheface (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> At least you are on the record of wanting to suspend the constitution and cause a civil war.  The Rona will go great in those circumstances.


Quit being an inflammatory moron. You are not a special snowflake.


----------



## notintheface (Dec 10, 2020)

Vegas lined up for food:



			https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxbusiness.com/foxbusiness.com/content/uploads/2020/04/1440/810/Las-vegas-FB-3.jpg?ve=1&tl=1
		


Quick, get Vegas Cup on the line, that will magically make it all better!


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

HHS today also acknowledge there have been no cases traced to outdoor dining.  It puts those restrictions in a situation where SCOTUS might also strike down that restriction for lacking a reasonable basis.


----------



## watfly (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> The word is out by now.   It’s been out for months.   If you or I are still having friends over for drinks, that’s our fault, not Newsom’s.


I don't blame Newsom for Covid infections at all, the virus is going to do its thing, as is evidenced by the fact that despite the some of the strictest restrictions, California has skyrocketing cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.  I blame him for putting a wholly unnecessary, non-evidence based devastating burden on our children and in many cases small business.


----------



## notintheface (Dec 10, 2020)

San Diego:



			https://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2020_15/3299221/200407-aerial-food-bank-san-diego-ac-725p_0545f7b38460525018aab8fa03d23316.fit-1120w.jpg
		


No no, if we put out a consistent message from the federal government we'll cause a civil war! Fucking morons...


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

notintheface said:


> Quit being an inflammatory moron. You are not a special snowflake.


Quit being an ignorant fool.  You can't go around suspending the Constitution.  And if you could, Trump should have just declared it was unsafe to hold the election and pushed it out a year.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> So, if Trump and Newsom are idiots, then I should just give up and make my friends and neighbors sick?
> 
> That’s a lot of disease.  Maybe we could choose to do better than that.


We? You and me? Folks who can sit in their house and pay all their bills? The decision is easy for me - and I didn't need an epidemiologist to figure it out. It's a virus. It spreads very easily and older folks are at significant risk.

I have no idea how people are handling the issue of distancing where the virus is spreading the most in our own county. Do you?


----------



## notintheface (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Quit being an ignorant fool.  You can't go around suspending the Constitution.  And if you could, Trump should have just declared it was unsafe to hold the election and pushed it out a year.


QUICK LET ME EXTRAPOLATE INTO THE MOST REACTIONARY RESPONSE I CAN THINK OF


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

notintheface said:


> QUICK LET ME EXTRAPOLATE INTO THE MOST REACTIONARY RESPONSE I CAN THINK OF


YOUR REACTION OF SUSPENDING THE CONSTITUTION TO BE NZ SINGAPORE OR AUSTRALIA IS ONE OF THE MOST RADICAL THINGS YOU CAN SAY IDIOT


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

notintheface said:


> Meanwhile, here's Texas lining up for food:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hawaii did too.


----------



## watfly (Dec 10, 2020)

notintheface said:


> San Diego:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm not going to condone any politicians, or Fauci's, messaging, but you really think the food lines would be any shorter with a military style lockdown?  Maybe they would because people wouldn't even be allowed in a food line, they'd just die in their homes.

What would you propose for Constitutional restrictions and please provide evidence that those restrictions work?  Also please explain how you would mitigate the mental, educational and economic damages from your lockdown.  I'm all ears.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

watfly said:


> I'm not going to condone any politicians, or Fauci's, messaging, but you really think the food lines would be any shorter with a military style lockdown?  Maybe they would because people wouldn't even be allowed in a food line, they'd just die in their homes.
> 
> What would you propose for Constitutional restrictions and please provide evidence that those restrictions work?  Also please explain how you would mitigate the mental, educational and economic damages from your lockdown.  I'm all ears.


Even Biden's policy doesn't go as afar as his.  Biden's policy basically amounts to:

1. Ask people to wear masks nicely and force elements of the federal government (workers/military) to do it
2. Finish Trump's vaccine rollout.
3. Open schools
4. Ask Congress for a boatload of more money


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> We? You and me? Folks who can sit in their house and pay all their bills? The decision is easy for me - and I didn't need an epidemiologist to figure it out. It's a virus. It spreads very easily and older folks are at significant risk.
> 
> I have no idea how people are handling the issue of distancing where the virus is spreading the most in our own county. Do you?


Distancing in east SJ:  (our hot spot)

When public parks are open, they are playing soccer and basketball in the parks.  No masks, but outdoors and windy.  Not a big problem.

When public parks are closed, people drive each other to the rich side of town so they can play soccer and basketball there.  The games are probably fine, but I’m sure some of them catch it on the car ride over and back.  Then abuela catches it and the numbers go up.  If abuela goes to indoor services that week, the numbers go up a lot.


----------



## watfly (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Even Biden's policy doesn't go as afar as his.  Biden's policy basically amounts to:
> 
> 1. Ask people to wear masks nicely and force elements of the federal government (workers/military) to do it
> 2. Finish Trump's vaccine rollout.
> ...


I'm encouraged that schools are on his list, kudos to Biden, unfortunately I don't see it making it difference a in California.  Remember the Federal government can't mandate or withhold funding from California, only Newsom can do something like that with his Counties.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> YOUR REACTION OF SUSPENDING THE CONSTITUTION TO BE NZ SINGAPORE OR AUSTRALIA IS ONE OF THE MOST RADICAL THINGS YOU CAN SAY IDIOT


Suspend the constitution?

I think you’re the only one to propose that.  Maybe we can close the restaurants, bars, casinos, churches, theaters, and coffee shops first and see how it goes.

I know.  It’s a dictatorship if you have to pour your own vodka.  You’ll be ok.  If Yeltsin could do it, so can you.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 10, 2020)

notintheface said:


> Except, you know, for this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That photo supposed to prove a point? 

The policies you decry here in the US imply you like them somewhere else. Our obvious reference point would be W. Europe. They have not done any better. 

1) Closing business is not sustainable. It is not sustainable to the people out of work, nor is it sustainable for the various governments that need that tax revenue. 
2) It isn't sustainable socially. People are social animals. If you say we cannot go here, then they will go there. Happens in every country
3) Preventing kids from going to school is simply madness

And so on.

All for a virus that isn't particularly deadly for the overwhelming majority of people. Focus on the at risk people.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Distancing in east SJ:  (our hot spot)
> 
> When public parks are open, they are playing soccer and basketball in the parks.  No masks, but outdoors and windy.  Not a big problem.
> 
> When public parks are closed, people drive each other to the rich side of town so they can play soccer and basketball there.  The games are probably fine, but I’m sure some of them catch it on the car ride over and back.  Then abuela catches it and the numbers go up.  If abuela goes to indoor services that week, the numbers go up a lot.


Do you have a link to that information?


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 10, 2020)

notintheface said:


> Meanwhile, here's Texas lining up for food:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Cannot tell much from the photo other than a long line of cars. 

But running with your photo...one would assume they are lined up because their workplaces have been limited by gov action right? If they could go to work normally, there wouldn't be a line. 

Or what is your take?


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Maybe we can close the restaurants, bars, casinos, churches, theaters, and coffee shops first and see how it goes.
> 
> I know. It’s a dictatorship if you have to pour your own vodka. You’ll be ok. If Yeltsin could do it, so can you.


That basically IS a dictatorship. 

Deciding that people cannot work. Taking away their ability to survive. Taking away their ability to save for the future. Taking away their ability to lets say afford college that their kids are in now, etc. 

Screw them right? It is just 40-50 million people affected by those "moderate" proposals.


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> re kids.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I agree with this. However, a lot of people who wants kids in school are the same ones that don't want to follow any other restrictions, so they bring it *to* school from home. So how do we fix that? 

Kids are in school up here in a myriad of ways, (even some 5x/week.) We get letters, phone calls, etc, almost daily about positive cases at school. Again, being brought from home. Then the whole class is sent home for 2 weeks, rinse repeat. 

There has to be a better way, and I am just glad I'm not tasked with finding it. Nor do I pretend to think any sweeping way will work.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Suspend the constitution?
> 
> I think you’re the only one to propose that.  Maybe we can close the restaurants, bars, casinos, churches, theaters, and coffee shops first and see how it goes.
> 
> I know.  It’s a dictatorship if you have to pour your own vodka.  You’ll be ok.  If Yeltsin could do it, so can you.


Yeltsin could not do it...he was usually falling down drunk

You are the one even now that says close the churches (SCOTUS has ruled on it....unconstitutional if you are giving them more restrictive indoor treatment, unconstitutional if you ban outdoor worship but allow protests), restaurants (at least one case has ruled outdoor restaurant bans lacked a rational basis and HHS comments today open the door for a constitutional rationale basis test against Newsoms restrictions), protests (first amendment), and your great idea of having the police go door to door and issue tickets for gatherings (warrantless searches).

So you're back to backpeddling?  They should make goalpost moving an event for the parents before tournaments....you'll surely take the prize given how much you weave and dive.  So we'll start where we began: Los Angeles did all this stuff....didn't work.

And for the record that's not what EOTL was asking for....he wanted to go farther and suspend the Constitution to get Australia/NZ/Singapore solutions.


----------



## watfly (Dec 10, 2020)

Glitterhater said:


> I agree with this. However, a lot of people who wants kids in school are the same ones that don't want to follow any other restrictions, so they bring it *to* school from home. So how do we fix that?


Unfortunately, you can't fix stupid.  It's probably the same parents that always sent their kids to school sick.

Very valid points and I feel bad for kids on that roller coaster.  I have no solutions either, other than to forge ahead and work through it, which isn't a very good solution.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

Hey @dad4, this is right up your ally.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336178629450018817


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Hey @dad4, this is right up your ally.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1336178629450018817


Alley.  Not ally.

You sure you’re an English person?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Alley.  Not ally.
> 
> You sure you’re an English person?


Doing 4 things at a time man....not all of our gigs are as laid back as yours.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Yeltsin could not do it...he was usually falling down drunk
> 
> You are the one even now that says close the churches (SCOTUS has ruled on it....unconstitutional if you are giving them more restrictive indoor treatment, unconstitutional if you ban outdoor worship but allow protests), restaurants (at least one case has ruled outdoor restaurant bans lacked a rational basis and HHS comments today open the door for a constitutional rationale basis test against Newsoms restrictions), protests (first amendment), and your great idea of having the police go door to door and issue tickets for gatherings (warrantless searches).
> 
> ...


Warrantless search?  Nah.  If you have 30 cars parked on your street and the neighbors called in a complaint, I think there is probable cause to knock on the door and say hello.  You don’t need a signed warrant for that.

We don’t ask police to have a signed warrant to knock on the door for noise complaints.  Nor do we need to suspend the constitution to deal with it.  This isn’t all that different.  Just put on a mask and meet your friends outside.  Problem solved.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Warrantless search?  Nah.  If you have 30 cars parked on your street and the neighbors called in a complaint, I think there is probable cause to knock on the door and say hello.  You don’t need a signed warrant for that.
> 
> We don’t ask police to have a signed warrant to knock on the door for noise complaints.  Nor do we need to suspend the constitution to deal with it.  This isn’t all that different.  Just put on a mask and meet your friends outside.  Problem solved.


So we're back to asking neighbors to inform on their neighbors? Both LA and NY tried that.  Unless its a loud large party, folks for the most part said no thanks.  And now the LA DA is apparently going to enforce party complaints when he's not going to enforce petty trespass, petty theft, vagrancy, public urination/intoxication, and resisting arrest?  That's not where the gatherings are happening anyway.  They are like my neighbors celebrating their 21st birthday having 5-6 bros over and drinking beer all night.  An army of Karens informing on people for celebrating thanksgiving....even better.


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 10, 2020)

In our county, LEO's have decided not to fine, punish, whatever - they are taking an "Education approach" to those who go against public health recs. Which really means they are too busy with more dangerous stuff, (true.)


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

Glitterhater said:


> In our county, LEO's have decided not to fine, punish, whatever - they are taking an "Education approach" to those who go against public health recs. Which really means they are too busy with more dangerous stuff, (true.)


My neighbors got fined for doing a Halloween party in LA County.  Dad keeps vacillating between "reasonable, common sense" limitations that rely on the good graces of others and that LA County has tried and failed at, and hard core authoritarian policies he wishes he could do if he could get away with it.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> My neighbors got fined for doing a Halloween party in LA County.  Dad keeps vacillating between "reasonable, common sense" limitations that rely on the good graces of others and that LA County has tried and failed at, and hard core authoritarian policies he wishes he could do if he could get away with it.


Glad to hear it.  How large was the party?

I learned recently that my grandmother recovered from covid, but at a cost of rapidly accelerated dementia.  Low oxygen is bad for brains.

No tears from me if someone got a $250 dollar fine for hosting a spreader event.  Hope they learned and don't hold another one.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Glad to hear it.  How large was the party?
> 
> I learned recently that my grandmother recovered from covid, but at a cost of rapidly accelerated dementia.  Low oxygen is bad for brains.
> 
> No tears from me if someone got a $250 dollar fine for hosting a spreader event.  Hope they learned and don't hold another one.


It was a large party complete with fancy Halloween decorations.  The neighborhood (the one right next to us) is known for its fancy decorations and Halloween celebrations.  But you miss the point (in your usual thick way).....Los Angeles is doing this already and your solution isn't working.  These are the parties they can catch (with the large cars and obvious noise).  It's not working, which is why you are flirting with going full totalitarianism like our friend EOTL.


----------



## watfly (Dec 10, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Glad to hear it.  How large was the party?
> 
> I learned recently that my grandmother recovered from covid, but at a cost of rapidly accelerated dementia.  Low oxygen is bad for brains.
> 
> No tears from me if someone got a $250 dollar fine for hosting a spreader event.  Hope they learned and don't hold another one.


Sorry to hear about your grandmother.


----------



## EOTL (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> It was a large party complete with fancy Halloween decorations.  The neighborhood (the one right next to us) is known for its fancy decorations and Halloween celebrations.  But you miss the point (in your usual thick way).....Los Angeles is doing this already and your solution isn't working.  These are the parties they can catch (with the large cars and obvious noise).  It's not working, which is why you are flirting with going full totalitarianism like our friend EOTL.


Yup. I’ve pretty much got the country bent to my will at this point. 

So fun watching youth soccer parents get what they deserve. Idiots went to places like Utah so their kids could play a kiddie sports and encourages others to also spread the covid and, guess what, now 3,000 people a day are dying.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Yup. I’ve pretty much got the country bent to my will at this point.
> 
> So fun watching youth soccer parents get what they deserve. Idiots went to places like Utah so their kids could play a kiddie sports and encourages others to also spread the covid and, guess what, now 3,000 people a day are dying.


You, sir, are the biggest asshole on the boards.  My kid didn't go to Utah because he wanted to play soccer.  It's because he was fairly close to a mental breakdown and needed to get out of California's horrible oppressive environment.  We would have stayed there permanently through the emergency if medical necessity (and the need to have our neighbors take custody of them) hadn't intervened.  My niece wasn't so lucky and wound up trying to kill herself.  So shut the fuck up you absolute total piece of human garbage NitF.


----------



## crush (Dec 10, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Yup. I’ve pretty much got the country bent to *my will* at this point.
> 
> So fun watching youth soccer parents get what they deserve. Idiots went to places like Utah so their kids could play a kiddie sports and encourages others to also spread the covid and, guess what, now 3,000 people a day are dying.


Interesting take


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

20% of MLS players have had COVID.  I'd guess a similar proportion in Europe.  Enough of a base for us to definitively know if COVID causes any intermediate term problems in the young and healthy.  Surprised if no one has studied it to date.......  It's also consistent with the estimates for COVID across the country being somewhere in the 20%-30% range.










						MLS union: Nearly 20% of players had COVID-19
					

MLS Players Association says nearly 20% of players contracted COVID-19 in 2020.




					www.espn.com


----------



## EOTL (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> You, sir, are the biggest asshole on the boards.  My kid didn't go to Utah because he wanted to play soccer.  It's because he was fairly close to a mental breakdown and needed to get out of California's horrible oppressive environment.  We would have stayed there permanently through the emergency if medical necessity (and the need to have our neighbors take custody of them) hadn't intervened.  My niece wasn't so lucky and wound up trying to kill herself.  So shut the fuck up you absolute total piece of human garbage NitF.


Ah, does mocking people only work one way for you? Try not doing it and see what happens. Otherwise shut the fuck up you absolute total piece of human garbage. Too bad about your niece. Too bad about the 300,000 people who have actually died from covid. If you’re gonna engage in your patronizing snark and disregard for human life, believe me I will keep returning the favor. It is the only way to convince people like you to get it together.


----------



## EOTL (Dec 10, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Ah, does mocking people only work one way for you? Try not doing it and see what happens. Otherwise shut the fuck up you absolute total piece of human garbage. Too bad about your niece. Too bad about the 300,000 people who have actually died from covid. If you’re gonna engage in your patronizing snark and disregard for human life, believe me I will keep returning the favor. It is the only way to convince people like you to get it together.


And by the way @Grace T., do you want another 16 pages of posts discussing politics and covid-19 before I said a word and you started blaming me for going off topic?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Ah, does mocking people only work one way for you? Try not doing it and see what happens. Otherwise shut the fuck up you absolute total piece of human garbage. Too bad about your niece. Too bad about the 300,000 people who have actually died from covid. If you’re gonna engage in your patronizing snark and disregard for human life, believe me I will keep returning the favor. It is the only way to convince people like you to get it together.


I may attack dad and your alter ego, but only when I've been attack first.  And I've never attacked anyone's kid like you inhuman piece of slime


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

EOTL said:


> And by the way @Grace T., do you want another 16 pages of posts discussing politics and covid-19 before I said a word and you started blaming me for going off topic?


I objected early and often to those posts to dominic, who chose not to do anything about it, not just you.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I may attack dad and your alter ego, but only when I've been attack first.  And I've never attacked anyone's kid like you inhuman piece of slime


p.s. if @dad4 were ready to declare an armistice and refrain from the behavior he started when he lost it that one week, I'd be more the happy to sign off on it.  But he tasks me.  He tasks me and I shall have him.


----------



## N00B (Dec 10, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Ah, does mocking people only work one way for you? Try not doing it and see what happens. Otherwise shut the fuck up you absolute total piece of human garbage. Too bad about your niece. Too bad about the 300,000 people who have actually died from covid. If you’re gonna engage in your patronizing snark and disregard for human life, believe me I will keep returning the favor. It is the only way to convince people like you to get it together.


Gaslighting again?


----------



## N00B (Dec 10, 2020)

EOTL said:


> And by the way @Grace T., do you want another 16 pages of posts discussing politics and covid-19 before I said a word and you started blaming me for going off topic?


This is the off-topic thread.


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 10, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Yup. I’ve pretty much got the country bent to my will at this point.
> 
> So fun watching youth soccer parents get what they deserve. Idiots went to places like Utah so their kids could play a kiddie sports and encourages others to also spread the covid and, guess what, now 3,000 people a day are dying.


With al due respect, this was a bit too much.


----------



## watfly (Dec 10, 2020)

Glitterhater said:


> With al due respect, this was a bit too much.


Respect has to be earned.  Kudos to you for taking the high road.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 10, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> You, sir, are the biggest asshole on the boards.  My kid didn't go to Utah because he wanted to play soccer.  It's because he was fairly close to a mental breakdown and needed to get out of California's horrible oppressive environment.  We would have stayed there permanently through the emergency if medical necessity (and the need to have our neighbors take custody of them) hadn't intervened.  My niece wasn't so lucky and wound up trying to kill herself.  So shut the fuck up you absolute total piece of human garbage NitF.


Sorry to hear that.....


----------



## EOTL (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I may attack dad and your alter ego, but only when I've been attack first.  And I've never attacked anyone's kid like you inhuman piece of slime


I responded to your attack on me. Do you know what inhuman piece of slime is?

It’s someone who spent 10 months contributing to 300,000 deaths so far and what is likely to be more than half a million by the time this is finally under control, and then only due to a vaccine. Discouraging people from wearing masks as ineffective. Encouraging people to travel from state to state. Encouraging active defiance of and refusal to comply with social distancing requests, and then requirements when you couldn’t even do the bare minimum. Outright derision, name calling and ridiculously asinine demands to recall the governor despite his acting in good faith - even if you disagree with his decisions - and although his leadership has resulted in easily the lowest death rate of any state with any significant population density. I have no sympathy for you, because
you are the reason we are here regardless of your complete lack of self awareness.

This kind of behavior has directly contributed to deaths, and a lot of them. There are 300,000 people dead and another 3,000 a day.  There are people committing suicide because they’ve been stuck in a nightmare for almost a year because people like you have fought efforts to limit transmission and would have been effective if people like you gave a s**t about anyone but yourself and your stupid kiddie soccer.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

EOTL said:


> I responded to your attack on me. Do you know what inhuman piece of slime is?
> 
> It’s someone who spent 10 months contributing to 300,000 deaths so far and what is likely to be more than half a million by the time this is finally under control, and then only due to a vaccine. Discouraging people from wearing masks as ineffective. Encouraging people to travel from state to state. Encouraging active defiance of and refusal to comply with social distancing requests, and then requirements when you couldn’t even do the bare minimum. Outright derision, name calling and ridiculously asinine demands to recall the governor despite his acting in good faith - even if you disagree with his decisions - and although his leadership has resulted in easily the lowest death rate of any state with any significant population density. I have no sympathy for you, because
> you are the reason we are here regardless of your complete lack of self awareness.
> ...


You are an absolute inhuman piece of trash.


----------



## watfly (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> You are an absolute inhuman piece of trash.


Um, trash implies it had some useful purpose before it became trash.  Just saying.


----------



## EOTL (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> You are an absolute inhuman piece of trash.


I feel the same about you, as do all those who’ve lost loved ones because of people like you.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

EOTL said:


> I feel the same about you, as do all those who’ve lost loved ones because of people like you.


And the torment of my kids and the near suicide of my niece is on people like you, monster.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> And the torment of my kids and the near suicide of my niece is on people like you, monster.


Just put the insensitive fool on ignore like the rest of us do.


----------



## EOTL (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> And the torment of my kids and the near suicide of my niece is on people like you, monster.


No, it is on people like you. We would not be where we are today, or last month, or the month before that, if it weren’t for people like you.  You are the monster. If you and your friends hadn’t fought every single effort to contain spread, if you and your friends hadn’t encouraged everyone else to do so too, if you and your friends hadn’t mocked efforts to save lives, we would all have our soccer and our in person school, kids wouldn’t be trying to commit suicide and there wouldn’t be 300,000 people dead and probably half a million by March.

You have been bitten an the ass by your behavior over the last 10 months and I don’t frel the least bit sorry for you. And the hardship is just going to keep coming for you until a vaccine saves us because, even now, the best you can muster to save lives is “maybe it isn’t the best idea to travel to AZ for a soccer tournament right now.” Stay home. Wear a mask when you need to go out. Encourage others to do the same you POS.


----------



## watfly (Dec 11, 2020)

EOTL said:


> I feel the same about you, as do all those who’ve lost loved ones because of people like you.


I don't know why I'm even engaging in a battle of wits with an unarmed person, but...  "People like you", you mean people that make educated decisions based on the available evidence and science.  The same people that haven't spread the disease like Grace and myself.  The same people that aren't blinded by Covid glasses and can see the bigger picture, I will proudly wear the "people like you" badge.

The far left, emotional, always a victim mentality is not going to get you very far, particularly without evidence.  You love to dictate to others while you happily visit casinos.  Weird how that works for you and for our politicians, or at least those near the Bay Area, that love to dictate, but not follow their own rules.

Tell you what Espola, you live in north SD I believe.  We have a facility in San Marcos and Rancho Bernardo.  I will give you a tour of one of those, your pick, next time I'm there to show you how seriously I take Covid.  Then you can tell me to my face how I'm responsible for killing people.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

EOTL said:


> No, it is on people like you. We would not be where we are today, or last month, or the month before that, if it weren’t for people like you.  You are the monster. If you and your friends hadn’t fought every single effort to contain spread, if you and your friends hadn’t encouraged everyone else to do so too, if you and your friends hadn’t mocked efforts to save lives, we would all have our soccer and our in person school, kids wouldn’t be trying to commit suicide and there wouldn’t be 300,000 people dead and probably half a million by March.
> 
> You have been bitten an the ass by your behavior over the last 10 months and I don’t frel the least bit sorry for you. And the hardship is just going to keep coming for you until a vaccine saves us because, even now, the best you can muster to save lives is “maybe it isn’t the best idea to travel to AZ for a soccer tournament right now.” Stay home. Wear a mask when you need to go out. Encourage others to do the same you POS.


Let's review:

1. EOTL= Evil on two legs.  
2. "Don't frel [sic] the least bit sorry for you."= psychopath who has no compassion for the suffering of children
3. "We would not be where we are today"= delusional blue piller who still thinks even with the best of controls we wouldn't have a disaster.
4. Weird adult who has some knowledge of soccer, has no known kid playing, yet is hanging out here to talk mostly politics and yet deeply resentful of the soccer community...I dunno maybe because of his own aspirations in the field, either as a player or someone professional involved.
5. Suspected of being a doppelganger for another person= lonely loser with some deep seated psychological issues.
6. Expressed professional frustrations particularly when shown up= professional loser with a deep inferiority complex
7. Claiming we should all be locking down yet making excuses for BLM protests= hopeless partisan who is just trolling and doesn't really believe half the shit he says.
.
All in all EOTL you are morally bankrupt, deeply disturbed, and in deep need of help.

Later!  you are on ignore....given my free speech bent the only other person I've ever done that too is Sheriff Joe, to which in my mind you are equivalent.  



dad4 said:


> Just put the insensitive fool on ignore like the rest of us do.


In a sec. Armistice yeah or nay?


----------



## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Let's review:
> 
> 1. EOTL= Evil on two legs.
> 2. "Don't frel [sic] the least bit sorry for you."= psychopath who has no compassion for the suffering of children
> ...


I thought we were already on one.  I can’t guarantee I won’t give you grief if you encourage people to hold parties or skip masks.  But I don’t expect no teasing if I claim that the lack of masks is the only reason covid ever existed.

How are your son and your neice?


----------



## EOTL (Dec 11, 2020)

watfly said:


> I don't know why I'm even engaging in a battle of wits with an unarmed person, but...  "People like you", you mean people that make educated decisions based on the available evidence and science.  The same people that haven't spread the disease like Grace and myself.  The same people that aren't blinded by Covid glasses and can see the bigger picture, I will proudly wear the "people like you" badge.
> 
> The far left, emotional, always a victim mentality is not going to get you very far, particularly without evidence.  You love to dictate to others while you happily visit casinos.  Weird how that works for you and for our politicians, or at least those near the Bay Area, that love to dictate, but not follow their own rules.
> 
> Tell you what Espola, you live in north SD I believe.  We have a facility in San Marcos and Rancho Bernardo.  I will give you a tour of one of those, your pick, next time I'm there to show you how seriously I take Covid.  Then you can tell me to my face how I'm responsible for killing people.


Perhaps you haven’t spread it (yet), but you and your kind have actively encouraged people who have done exactly that.

I have no victim mentality. It’s those whining about the rules put in place to save lives who have that problem. I am perfectly happy with the efforts CA has made, which is now 40th in mortality rate despite having the highest population densities in the state, and despite the best efforts of a handful of people who are upset that a youth soccer forum isn’t a one-sided Parler-esque Qanon pity party.

How’s the recall petition going BTW?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

https://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2020/12/04/health-systems-wont-make-vaccine-mandatory-staff.html


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> I thought we were already on one.  I can’t guarantee I won’t give you grief if you encourage people to hold parties or skip masks.  But I don’t expect no teasing if I claim that the lack of masks is the only reason covid ever existed.
> 
> How are your son and your neice?


Niece had to be hospitalized.  Docs recommended they remove the restrictions from her, which they did, but she's doing better but still not well.

Son is fine now.  Utah revived him and soccer practices keep him going.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Lightweight article on covid transmission risk at soccer america.  paywall.









						COVID danger in sports: team meals, car rides, shared hotel rooms and whiteboard sessions
					

As we work through the current COVID-19 surge it's instructive to dig deeper into how individuals become infected and how to decrease risk.




					www.socceramerica.com


----------



## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Most of our practices ended over Christmas break.  

Contemplating getting some masked 3v3 basketball at one of the courts still open.  That or soccer tennis.  

Masks outside sound silly to some.  SJ is approaching one new case per thousand people per day.  That’s high enough for me to stop trying to find the minimum sufficient precaution, and look instead for the maximum endurable precaution.  Besides, it reduces the odds that someone calls the cops to yell at us for 6 feet.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 11, 2020)

TaxProf Blog: 21.7% Fewer High School Graduates Enrolled In College This Fall Due To COVID-19
					

National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, National College Progression Rates: Despite steady high school graduate numbers, students going to college immediately after high school this fall fell steeply by 21.7 percent, nearly eight times the pre-pandemic loss rate (-2.8%). The degree of...




					taxprof.typepad.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

More bad news on the vaccine front.  The sanofi vaccine (an adjuvanted recombinant protein based vaccine) is delayed because they aren't getting the needed response in elderly due to an insufficient concentration of antigen.  Best case is that vaccine is available Q4.  Our choices are narrowing, particularly for children's vaccines.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Most of our practices ended over Christmas break.
> 
> Contemplating getting some masked 3v3 basketball at one of the courts still open.  That or soccer tennis.
> 
> Masks outside sound silly to some.  SJ is approaching one new case per thousand people per day.  That’s high enough for me to stop trying to find the minimum sufficient precaution, and look instead for the maximum endurable precaution.  Besides, it reduces the odds that someone calls the cops to yell at us for 6 feet.


One of the things this taught me is how different people really are.  I've mentioned my son's classmate last year....other than the backyard he has not been outside the house for 9 months or seen another human soul besides his parents.  No doctor's visits, parks, beaches, dentist appointments, haircuts (his mom cuts it) sports practice, school, socially distanced picnics or playdates.  The only interaction he has is zoom school or chess club, karate or Kumon on line.  His parents don't allow him a phone so he's not in contact with any of the classmates in his current or former school.  But from what they say he's still doing fine....an introvert whose just happy as a clam, doesn't want to go back to in person school, and enjoys rolling out of bed in front the camera.  My niece, who had the minimum has her own phone and can socialize that way and was free to go to the park by herself or with her sis, still cracked, and during the summer when she wasn't on zoom school.


----------



## watfly (Dec 11, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Perhaps you haven’t spread it (yet), but you and your kind have actively encouraged people who have done exactly that.
> 
> I have no victim mentality. It’s those whining about the rules put in place to save lives who have that problem. I am perfectly happy with the efforts CA has made, which is now 40th in mortality rate despite having the highest population densities in the state, and despite the best efforts of a handful of people who are upset that a youth soccer forum isn’t a one-sided Parler-esque Qanon pity party.
> 
> How’s the recall petition going BTW?


I don't believe in recalls for policy decisions, only illegal activity or gross malfeasance.  Incredible arrogance and intentional denial of science don't quite get me to gross malfeasance, close though.

My invitation is open to you if you're ever in the neighborhood to visit one of your sites, only condition is you're buying the beer.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

UPMC enthusiastic about COVID-19 vaccine, but won’t immediately require employees to get it
					

UPMC requires health care workers to get flu vaccine, but says there's no body of research to show whether a mandate would work with COVID-19 vaccine.




					www.pennlive.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

Another mask study....long and short is N95s good, surgical good, cloth masks somewhere in between depending on material, bandanas bad and gaiters counterproductive. I note re surgicals this one is pretty good because it included speech, but it didn't look at the long term use and when the mask gets wet or repeatedly infected with a cough (which I've suspected is also a vulnerability in surgical-cloth).





__





						Low-cost measurement of face mask efficacy for filtering expelled droplets during speech | Science Advances
					





					advances.sciencemag.org


----------



## watfly (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Another mask study....long and short is N95s good, surgical good, cloth masks somewhere in between depending on material, bandanas bad and gaiters counterproductive. I note re surgicals this one is pretty good because it included speech, but it didn't look at the long term use and when the mask gets wet or repeatedly infected with a cough (which I've suspected is also a vulnerability in surgical-cloth).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I've misplaced my gaiter which was the most comfortable for me to wear without fogging up my glasses.  I've been wearing surgical or cloth lately, sounds like I need to stick with those.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

watfly said:


> I've misplaced my gaiter which was the most comfortable for me to wear without fogging up my glasses.  I've been wearing surgical or cloth lately, sounds like I need to stick with those.


I still suspect one of the reasons "masks aren't working" is because people are reusing surgical-cloth or wearing them for too long a period of time (on top of people not wearing them in social situations, impractical to use 24/7 in the home, improper usage, and/or cheating on them because humans have this weird evolutionary thing where we don't like our breathing passages blocked by anything).


----------



## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Another mask study....long and short is N95s good, surgical good, cloth masks somewhere in between depending on material, bandanas bad and gaiters counterproductive. I note re surgicals this one is pretty good because it included speech, but it didn't look at the long term use and when the mask gets wet or repeatedly infected with a cough (which I've suspected is also a vulnerability in surgical-cloth).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Image from Grace’s study.   Clearly, don’t bother with bandanas or gaiters.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

Another vaccine bite the dust.....





__





						Australia Cancels COVID Vaccine Trial Over 'Unexpected' False Positives For HIV | ZeroHedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com


----------



## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I still suspect one of the reasons "masks aren't working" is because people are reusing surgical-cloth or wearing them for too long a period of time (on top of people not wearing them in social situations, impractical to use 24/7 in the home, improper usage, and/or cheating on them because humans have this weird evolutionary thing where we don't like our breathing passages blocked by anything).


It’s also just easier to do a lab experiment than one in the field.  

How would you even design an experiment to test whether masks reduce outbound covid transmission in the real world?  Pick 20 isolated cities and flood 10 of them with boxes of surgical masks?  Very expensive, and it still only gets you n=10.

That’s a lot of time and money to get a weak correlation and an unpublishable non statistically significant result.


----------



## espola (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Another mask study....long and short is N95s good, surgical good, cloth masks somewhere in between depending on material, bandanas bad and gaiters counterproductive. I note re surgicals this one is pretty good because it included speech, but it didn't look at the long term use and when the mask gets wet or repeatedly infected with a cough (which I've suspected is also a vulnerability in surgical-cloth).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's from September and has been discussed here before.


----------



## espola (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> It’s also just easier to do a lab experiment than one in the field.
> 
> How would you even design an experiment to test whether masks reduce outbound covid transmission in the real world?  Pick 20 isolated cities and flood 10 of them with boxes of surgical masks?  Very expensive, and it still only gets you n=10.
> 
> That’s a lot of time and money to get a weak correlation and an unpublishable non statistically significant result.


The physical performance of the masks themselves can be measured.  What is less certain is the social performance - will people use them appropriately and correctly?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> It’s also just easier to do a lab experiment than one in the field.
> 
> How would you even design an experiment to test whether masks reduce outbound covid transmission in the real world?  Pick 20 isolated cities and flood 10 of them with boxes of surgical masks?  Very expensive, and it still only gets you n=10.
> 
> That’s a lot of time and money to get a weak correlation and an unpublishable non statistically significant result.


Agree, which despite being labelled anti-mask, is the reason I think we should still wear them....because it's impossible to tell right now.  But I do think it's possible (as this study shows) to test my hypothesis (actually, the hypothesis of that PPE engineer I cited a while back) that one of the reasons masks aren't working is because they are getting wet, washed or not replaced often enough.  The design of this experiment was pretty good (from what I've been told by peeps in the know) and took into account for the first time human speech as well (should also take into account sneezes and coughs).  I'd bet money the results show that we should be doing single (or perhaps double/triple) use...if so a targeted mask approach might be more effective instead of having people wear (and use them out) outside (or worse while driving alone in their cars because they are scared to touch it on and off).


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

espola said:


> That's from September and has been discussed here before.


I don't have a recollection of this one being discussed....we did discuss another one very similar though I could be wrong....my memory isn't as perfect as when I was younger...the difference with this one though was speech.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Another vaccine bite the dust.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Damn.


----------



## espola (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> I don't have a recollection of this one being discussed....we did discuss another one very similar though I could be wrong....my memory isn't as perfect as when I was younger...the difference with this one though was speech.


I recognized the graphs right away.


----------



## watfly (Dec 11, 2020)

I'm all for wearing masks when appropriate, just don't assume they're a panacea, because clearly they're not.  Social distancing is probably way more effective.

I question the relevance of both actions though when people make stupid decisions after they know they've been exposed, or have mild symptoms they ignore.  Please stay home if you have anything remotely resembling a Covid symptom regardless of severity, or if you been exposed or potentially exposed.  Stay home (other than to get a test) until you can confirm you don't have the virus.  Don't go out because you think a mask may protect others.  IMO opinion its the people that ignore this advice that are the primary drivers of the spread of the virus.  Can't prove it, but based upon some of the stories I'm hearing that's what my gut tells me.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 11, 2020)

watfly said:


> Stay home (other than to get a test) until you can confirm you don't have the virus.  Don't go out because you think a mask may protect others.  IMO opinion its the people that ignore this advice that are the primary drivers of the spread of the virus.  Can't prove it, but based upon some of the stories I'm hearing that's what my gut tells me.


Plenty of $$$ being made from CV19 testing.  Average cost of a nasal swab test in AZ is $141, in CA $143. In NJ it cost $319.  I know more people are getting the free test than not, but many people are paying.

Many people will pay (to include yours truly) in order to avoid quarantine and immediately rule out Covid.  I don't necessarily think testing has turned into a side hustle but it is lucrative.  That doesn't include other tests that you can get at various clinics in your community that cost $$

A lot of sniffles this time of the year.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Agree, which despite being labelled anti-mask, is the reason I think we should still wear them....because it's impossible to tell right now.  But I do think it's possible (as this study shows) to test my hypothesis (actually, the hypothesis of that PPE engineer I cited a while back) that one of the reasons masks aren't working is because they are getting wet, washed or not replaced often enough.  The design of this experiment was pretty good (from what I've been told by peeps in the know) and took into account for the first time human speech as well (should also take into account sneezes and coughs).  I'd bet money the results show that we should be doing single (or perhaps double/triple) use...if so a targeted mask approach might be more effective instead of having people wear (and use them out) outside (or worse while driving alone in their cars because they are scared to touch it on and off).


You know of any studies of wet /misted masks?  Seems easy enough to design and do.


----------



## watfly (Dec 11, 2020)

happy9 said:


> Plenty of $$$ being made from CV19 testing.  Average cost of a nasal swab test in AZ is $141, in CA $143. In NJ it cost $319.  I know more people are getting the free test than not, but many people are paying.
> 
> Many people will pay (to include yours truly) in order to avoid quarantine and immediately rule out Covid.  I don't necessarily think testing has turned into a side hustle but it is lucrative.  That doesn't include other tests that you can get at various clinics in your community that cost $$
> 
> A lot of sniffles this time of the year.


Yep, much easier to get a test now, fortunately.  Frustrating though a few months ago in SD when you could only get one if you showed very specific symptoms and just being exposed was not enough to get your healthcare provider to approve the test.  Made it difficult for work place decisions when you can't get a test for your non-symptom, but exposed employee.  We figured it out, but it wasn't easy.  Our company's healthcare provider does provide free testing, which is nice.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

watfly said:


> I'm all for wearing masks when appropriate, just don't assume they're a panacea, because clearly they're not.  Social distancing is probably way more effective.
> 
> I question the relevance of both actions though when people make stupid decisions after they know they've been exposed, or have mild symptoms they ignore.  Please stay home if you have anything remotely resembling a Covid symptom regardless of severity, or if you been exposed or potentially exposed.  Stay home (other than to get a test) until you can confirm you don't have the virus.  Don't go out because you think a mask may protect others.  IMO opinion its the people that ignore this advice that are the primary drivers of the spread of the virus.  Can't prove it, but based upon some of the stories I'm hearing that's what my gut tells me.


A plumber friend of my father's went out to the market (got to eat) and tried to go into work (his employer sent him home) after testing asymptomatic positive.  His rationale was "I'm wearing a mask".


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## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You know of any studies of wet /misted masks?  Seems easy enough to design and do.


some of the flu studies mention them as a problem with the advice to replace often.  Nothing on COVID, but I suspect they aren't running them for fear of what they might find.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

happy9 said:


> Plenty of $$$ being made from CV19 testing.  Average cost of a nasal swab test in AZ is $141, in CA $143. In NJ it cost $319.  I know more people are getting the free test than not, but many people are paying.
> 
> Many people will pay (to include yours truly) in order to avoid quarantine and immediately rule out Covid.  I don't necessarily think testing has turned into a side hustle but it is lucrative.  That doesn't include other tests that you can get at various clinics in your community that cost $$
> 
> A lot of sniffles this time of the year.



Get the point but a test, technically, is not really enough "to avoid quarantine".  You could become positive after the test (exhibit A: Trump and the debates).  The only way to be sure is to test after (I can't remember the exact recommended time...heard different things when a pod of my son's had to quarantine after exposure) 7-10 days.


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## happy9 (Dec 11, 2020)

watfly said:


> Yep, much easier to get a test now, fortunately.  Frustrating though a few months ago in SD when you could only get one if you showed very specific symptoms and just being exposed was not enough to get your healthcare provider to approve the test.  *Made it difficult for work place decisions when you can't get a test for your non-symptom, but exposed employee. * We figured it out, but it wasn't easy.  Our company's healthcare provider does provide free testing, which is nice.


Lack of testing early (for good reasons) certainly frustrated efforts to keep workplace momentum going.  Much easier now, basically on demand.


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## happy9 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Get the point but a test, technically, is not really enough "to avoid quarantine".  You could become positive after the test (exhibit A: Trump and the debates).  The only way to be sure is to test after (I can't remember the exact recommended time...heard different things when a pod of my son's had to quarantine after exposure) 7-10 days.


Is there a reasonable delay where you can assume that you may have been  infected and then test?  Wait X number of days after someone tests positive and you know you had potential exposure to them.  

Has happened on multiple occasions with my kids.  Confirmed positive tests  from friends (asymptomatic).  We waited 3-4 days then tested everyone in our  household.  Tests came back negative.  Frustrating to say the least but a necessary evil I suppose.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

happy9 said:


> Is there a reasonable delay where you can assume that you may have been  infected and then test?  Wait X number of days after someone tests positive and you know you had potential exposure to them.
> 
> Has happened on multiple occasions with my kids.  Confirmed positive tests  from friends (asymptomatic).  We waited 3-4 days then tested everyone in our  household.  Tests came back negative.  Frustrating to say the least but a necessary evil I suppose.


We were told 7-10 days when it happened to us a month back.  I tested my son 3 days out but the relevant party didn't accept that and made him retest after 10 days (he was annoyed because he had to get COVID test twice).  For Trump he tested negative 2+ days after exposure.  But I don't know what the actual right number is (I suspect 3 is too short though because our school requires 10 as well to be back for sports/wellness camps/clubs on campus).


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## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> some of the flu studies mention them as a problem with the advice to replace often.  Nothing on COVID, but I suspect they aren't running them for fear of what they might find.


They may not run them on covid because they run them on droplets and aerosols.  If you have a good ten year old wet mask droplet study, that may be enough.

I just want to know so I know what to do.  If the advice is to carry an extra mask and replace my mask when it gets wet, I can do that.  It's not like I don't have a bag of them by the front door.


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## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> They may not run them on covid because they run them on droplets and aerosols.  If you have a good ten year old wet mask droplet study, that may be enough.
> 
> I just want to know so I know what to do.  If the advice is to carry an extra mask and replace my mask when it gets wet, I can do that.  It's not like I don't have a bag of them by the front door.


I had done one on the old COVID thread that specifically said wet masks should be replaced for flu and recommended medical practioners replace in between patient visits.  If I come across it I'll post (hard with that archive gone) but for what it's worth my dad (old timey surgeon) said that's consistent with what they've always been told in the hospital.


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## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

As expected, Newsom gets slapped down on churches, given the instructions from SCOTUS









						California Judge Slaps Down Newsom Ban on Church Gatherings
					

California Superior Court Judge Gregory Pulskamp delivered a stinging rebuke of Gov. Gavin Newsom late on Dec. 10, ...




					www.theepochtimes.com


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## happy9 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> We were told 7-10 days when it happened to us a month back.  I tested my son 3 days out but the relevant party didn't accept that and made him retest after 10 days (he was annoyed because he had to get COVID test twice).  For Trump he tested negative 2+ days after exposure.  But I don't know what the actual right number is (I suspect 3 is too short though because our school requires 10 as well to be back for sports/wellness camps/clubs on campus).


Our school is on a 14 day policy, regardless of the number of negative tests.  

They quarantined the entire football team in SEP because of 1 positive test.  Not one other kid tested positive and......the team practiced distanced, by position group, every day.  The positive case came from the offensive lineman group (about 10 kids total).  Even the kicker and punter were quarantined.  They also had not been using the locker room.  Very strict polities had been enacted to avoid spread...but...well, they were all quarantined for 14 days.


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## watfly (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Get the point but a test, technically, is not really enough "to avoid quarantine".  You could become positive after the test (exhibit A: Trump and the debates).  The only way to be sure is to test after (I can't remember the exact recommended time...heard different things when a pod of my son's had to quarantine after exposure) 7-10 days.


Yes, we had an employee that lost their taste and smell and tested negative.  They still got a 10 day, paid vacation.

We follow CalOsha and CDC guidelines at a minimum.  They've reduced the number of days you're required to keep the employee out of work, but I don't have the days memorized based on the circumstances of the symptoms, fevers or exposure.  Our HR person does.


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## espola (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> As expected, Newsom gets slapped down on churches, given the instructions from SCOTUS
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That seems to open up one church in Bakersfield.  



			https://www.thomasmoresociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Burfitt-Win.pdf


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## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

espola said:


> That seems to open up one church in Bakersfield.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.thomasmoresociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Burfitt-Win.pdf


true that and it’s only a sup court opinion so not controlling. Given though the instruction from SCOTUS I don’t expect too many of the other cases (including ours locally) to go different.  And if you get an appellate decision at that point the plaintiffs get to add other nastier claims such as civil rights infringements. Plus not to mention the legal costs that build as others copycat.  The SCOTUS ruling though left very little room to a maneuver and even though it’s a pc given the instruction the other lower courts have no real leeway or discretion unless they can distinguish, hence this


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## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> As expected, Newsom gets slapped down on churches, given the instructions from SCOTUS
> 
> 
> 
> ...


On the theory that religious services are akin to grocery stores.  

I can’t wait to see what the courts say when a theater claims that, unless they can open, the state has discriminated against them.  

Either the court authorizes a further unravelling of the gathering restrictions, or the court contrives some non-religious explanation of the difference between a sermon and a poetry reading.


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## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> On the theory that religious services are akin to grocery stores.
> 
> I can’t wait to see what the courts say when a theater claims that, unless they can open, the state has discriminated against them.
> 
> Either the court authorizes a further unravelling of the gathering restrictions, or the court contrives some non-religious explanation of the difference between a sermon and a poetry reading.


There have been a couple of these cases already, and so far they've lost.  Because they charge, the T/P/M restrictions you put on these can be more restrictive than say if you were trying to ban a free indoor Trump or BLM rally or a free religious service.  One of the reasons, though, they've lost is that generally they've been held to a similar standard as indoor dining and other indoor facilities....where it gets tricky is when they are treated differently.  So far, in most places if the indoor restaurants have been shut so have the theaters. See also the poll dancer cases in San Diego and Buffalo.

The bigger vulnerability for lockdowns is the lack of a rational basis behind certain governmental policies (outdoor dining, and maybe even schools).  Given the data that's emerged, the behavior of some officials (like Newsom and the LA Supervisor), and public statements by California, HHS, and La County that they don't have data showing outdoor dining---> spread, it's an area of vulnerability.  Leaves them only the argument it was a necessary step to stop people from gathering (but they'd have to prove that's the case....don't know if they can).  Gorsuch's concurrence touched on this and I think he was signaling to folks his concern about this issue (Alito too given his remarks on lockdown, but he's approaching it more from an executive action without legislative input for too long approach)


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## kickingandscreaming (Dec 11, 2020)

Ugh. There's actually some indication that we may be near the peak in the case rise. It's tough to call though as there are many regional "waves" that make up this national graph. CA and NY aren't helping much.


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## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> There have been a couple of these cases already, and so far they've lost.  Because they charge, the T/P/M restrictions you put on these can be more restrictive than say if you were trying to ban a free indoor Trump or BLM rally or a free religious service.  One of the reasons, though, they've lost is that generally they've been held to a similar standard as indoor dining and other indoor facilities....where it gets tricky is when they are treated differently.  So far, in most places if the indoor restaurants have been shut so have the theaters. See also the poll dancer cases in San Diego and Buffalo.
> 
> The bigger vulnerability for lockdowns is the lack of a rational basis behind certain governmental policies (outdoor dining, and maybe even schools).  Given the data that's emerged, the behavior of some officials (like Newsom and the LA Supervisor), and public statements by California, HHS, and La County that they don't have data showing outdoor dining---> spread, it's an area of vulnerability.  Leaves them only the argument it was a necessary step to stop people from gathering (but they'd have to prove that's the case....don't know if they can).  Gorsuch's concurrence touched on this and I think he was signaling to folks his concern about this issue (Alito too given his remarks on lockdown, but he's approaching it more from an executive action without legislative input for too long approach)


Given the current ruling, how do you permit church services while prohibiting live theater and poetry readings?

It seems unarguably a content restriction.  One is a 60 minute reading and commentary on Alan Ginsberg.  The other is a 60 minute reading and commentary from the Bible.  It isn't even clear that you could tell the difference if you have the sound turned off.

I expect this will return to bite the court in the butt within months.


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## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ugh. There's actually some indication that we may be near the peak in the case rise. It's tough to call though as there are many regional "waves" that make up this national graph. CA and NY aren't helping much.
> 
> View attachment 9653
> 
> View attachment 9654


Near the peak nationally or for CA? 

 The CA case count is nowhere near the 6-10% that has preceded other states' count declines.  I thought we are in for it for another few weeks.


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## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Given the current ruling, how do you permit church services while prohibiting live theater and poetry readings?
> 
> It seems unarguably a content restriction.  One is a 60 minute reading and commentary on Alan Ginsberg.  The other is a 60 minute reading and commentary from the Bible.  It isn't even clear that you could tell the difference if you have the sound turned off.
> 
> I expect this will return to bite the court in the butt within months.


a. free v charge a fee.  Like I said, I free poetry reading is harder.  The thrust of the New Jersey lawsuit is that NJ is discriminating in favor of religion against theatres.  The decisions handed down so far make a distinction because a theater is a commercial enterprise.
b. SCOTUS didn't say you have to open indoor worship.  It just said you can't treat it worse.  If indoor dining is open but a theatre is not, that's probably an issue.  If the same percentage limitations apply I bet you they'd say that's o.k. (indoor dining is closed so theatre can be closed....indoor dining at 25% so theatres at 25%)
c. there's a hierarchy of speech: political speech > free performance and opinion speech > commercial speech like books and films >commercial speech like advertising. SCOTUS just wanted religion treated in the top tier.

If anything I don't think it bites the court....if anything I think they'll be happy to extend similar restrictions as other businesses: so churches and political protests must be >= theatres, pole dancers and sports venues >= grocery stores, box chains and personal services.


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## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> a. free v charge a fee.  Like I said, I free poetry reading is harder.  The thrust of the New Jersey lawsuit is that NJ is discriminating in favor of religion against theatres.  The decisions handed down so far make a distinction because a theater is a commercial enterprise.
> b. SCOTUS didn't say you have to open indoor worship.  It just said you can't treat it worse.  If indoor dining is open but a theatre is not, that's probably an issue.  If the same percentage limitations apply I bet you they'd say that's o.k. (indoor dining is closed so theatre can be closed....indoor dining at 25% so theatres at 25%)
> c. there's a hierarchy of speech: political speech > free performance and opinion speech > commercial speech like books and films >commercial speech like advertising. SCOTUS just wanted religion treated in the top tier.
> 
> If anything I don't think it bites the court....if anything I think they'll be happy to extend similar restrictions as other businesses: so churches and political protests must be >= theatres, pole dancers and sports venues >= grocery stores, box chains and personal services.


B- if you can't treat sermons worse than grocers, then there is no way to ban indoor services.  If you did, then you have to ban grocery stores.  That causes problems.

a- to he link to commerce is odd.  Free religious services are kind of a new invention.  Not that long ago you had to rent your pew: religion was a type of commerce.  Seems weird that the court would draw the line at paid versus unpaid speech.  It puts some religious speech on one side and some on the other.

Does that mean my church loses some of its free speech protections when I decide to rent pews or make tithe mandatory?  After all, if I rent pews then it is no longer free.

I hope the outcome is for states to tighten rules on non religious venues.  My bet is they just open the churches and feign impotence when church contagion makes cases rise.


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## kickingandscreaming (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Near the peak nationally or for CA?
> 
> The CA case count is nowhere near the 6-10% that has preceded other states' count declines.  I thought we are in for it for another few weeks.


Nationally. The one thing you’ll notice about the steep increases as we’ve seen in the Midwest, upper Midwest is that they tend to drop quickly as well. We can hope.


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## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> B- if you can't treat sermons worse than grocers, then there is no way to ban indoor services.  If you did, then you have to ban grocery stores.  That causes problems.


The problem wasn't that the grocers were open and the religious services were closed.  The problem is the religious places of worship were closed but dining and a lot of other places like tattoo parlors, construction and bike shops were open and classified as essential...SCOTUS implied the remedy might be a capacity limitation.  SCOTUS already ruled on closing places of worship in the summer.  It would seem a European style, short emergency lockdown (where everything is closed except really essential businesses like markets and pharmacies) is o.k.  What rankled was the dining, tattoo parlors and nail salons, construction, bike shops or in California movie production.


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## dad4 (Dec 11, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The problem wasn't that the grocers were open and the religious services were closed.  The problem is the religious places of worship were closed but dining and a lot of other places like tattoo parlors, construction and bike shops were open and classified as essential...SCOTUS implied the remedy might be a capacity limitation.  SCOTUS already ruled on closing places of worship in the summer.  It would seem a European style, short emergency lockdown (where everything is closed except really essential businesses like markets and pharmacies) is o.k.  What rankled was the dining, tattoo parlors and nail salons, construction, bike shops or in California movie production.


The CA link specifically mentioned grocers, as did you.  Drop grocers, and it has a chance of being reasonable.  If you keep the link to grocers, the ruling means you have to let churches spread covid at will.

Capacity limit would be fine, but no church can run with even a 20 person capacity limit.  Tattoo parlors will be just fine with a 4 person limit.  You still end up with churches closed and tattoo parlors open.


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## Grace T. (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> The CA link specifically mentioned grocers, as did you.  Drop grocers, and it has a chance of being reasonable.  If you keep the link to grocers, the ruling means you have to let churches spread covid at will.
> 
> Capacity limit would be fine, but no church can run with even a 20 person capacity limit.  Tattoo parlors will be just fine with a 4 person limit.  You still end up with churches closed and tattoo parlors open.


SCOTUS suggested a % limit based on the capacity of the building.


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## N00B (Dec 11, 2020)

dad4 said:


> B- if you can't treat sermons worse than grocers, then there is no way to ban indoor services.  If you did, then you have to ban grocery stores.  That causes problems.
> 
> a- to he link to commerce is odd.  Free religious services are kind of a new invention.  Not that long ago you had to rent your pew: religion was a type of commerce.  Seems weird that the court would draw the line at paid versus unpaid speech.  It puts some religious speech on one side and some on the other.
> 
> ...


Not a SCOTUS position... but commerce wasn’t a factor in the speech decision regarding strip club closures and that is certainly not a free venue.


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## Desert Hound (Dec 12, 2020)

SEEN ON FACEBOOK: “*Flicks cigarette after a long drag* ‘Here’s the thing. If Santa knows when kids are naughty or nice then he knew Rudolph was being bullied.'”


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## Desert Hound (Dec 12, 2020)




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## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 9655


There’s a lot of this where’s the flu on the Twitter verse (particularly given flu immunization last I checked was down from normal).  There’s really a basic answer: covid is more contagious than flu so while masks may help against flu they probably help less against covid particularly if the conditions exist for it to be aersolized. Similarly while distancing and isolating a sick resident of your home may help with flu it will help less with covid.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 12, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> There’s a lot of this where’s the flu on the Twitter verse (particularly given flu immunization last I checked was down from normal).  There’s really a basic answer: covid is more contagious than flu so while masks may help against flu they probably help less against covid particularly if the conditions exist for it to be aersolized. Similarly while distancing and isolating a sick resident of your home may help with flu it will help less with covid.


Both the CDC and articles you have posted on masks are quite clear that masks reduce the rate of outgoing droplets and aerosols.   For example, your most recent real article showed reductions in the 70 to 95 percent range.

You can therefore stop saying things like "they probably help less...".   This opinion is both dangerous and wholly unsupported by the data.  

Just one more example of Grace making misleading statements that discourage others from taking sensible precautions.


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## Glitterhater (Dec 12, 2020)

dad4 said:


> Both the CDC and articles you have posted on masks are quite clear that masks reduce the rate of outgoing droplets and aerosols.   For example, your most recent real article showed reductions in the 70 to 95 percent range.
> 
> You can therefore stop saying things like "they probably help less...".   This opinion is both dangerous and wholly unsupported by the data.
> 
> Just one more example of Grace making misleading statements that discourage others from taking sensible precautions.


I must have some serious comprehension issues this morning, (not that far fetched,) but I thought what she was saying was fairly rational? If flu is less contagious, then yea- transmission is less likely and mitigation efforts, (ie: masks,) are more likely to help. With COVID, transmission is easier which means mitigation efforts aren't as successful- doesn't mean the efforts totally fail, just don't work as well. Again, I could be totally misinterpreting.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 12, 2020)

Glitterhater said:


> I must have some serious comprehension issues this morning, (not that far fetched,) but I thought what she was saying was fairly rational? If flu is less contagious, then yea- transmission is less likely and mitigation efforts, (ie: masks,) are more likely to help. With COVID, transmission is easier which means mitigation efforts aren't as successful- doesn't mean the efforts totally fail, just don't work as well. Again, I could be totally misinterpreting.


If there were not a steady drip of mildly negative comments on the CDC recommendations, maybe.

Even then, there is no reason to believe that contagiousness correlates one way or the other with mask effectiveness.  Maybe a more contagious virus is harder for masks to stop, because a 10% exposure is still enough.  Maybe a more contagious virus is more vulnerable to masks, because so many more people are at a moderately dangerous distance from the spreader.  I don't know, and I would be surprised if more than one person here knew.  

I just see it as a counterproductive post.


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## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

dad4 said:


> If there were not a steady drip of mildly negative comments on the CDC recommendations, maybe.
> 
> Even then, there is no reason to believe that contagiousness correlates one way or the other with mask effectiveness.  Maybe a more contagious virus is harder for masks to stop, because a 10% exposure is still enough.  Maybe a more contagious virus is more vulnerable to masks, because so many more people are at a moderately dangerous distance from the spreader.  I don't know, and I would be surprised if more than one person here knew.
> 
> I just see it as a counterproductive post.


not counterproductive just questioning.  It’spretty clear covid is more contagiousthan the flu and there is evidence it’s more aersolized than the flu. I don’t think people should stop wearing masks when in doors. I just think the authorities shouldn’t oversell them (undermines trust and discouraged social distancing if people think masks are better than vaccines). That said, our public health experts are all idiots which is why they probably have their jobs instead of being notable cancer specialists,top notch surgeons or even dr oz.


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## dad4 (Dec 12, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> not counterproductive just questioning.  It’spretty clear covid is more contagiousthan the flu and there is evidence it’s more aersolized than the flu. I don’t think people should stop wearing masks when in doors. I just think the authorities shouldn’t oversell them (undermines trust and discouraged social distancing if people think masks are better than vaccines). That said, *our public health experts are all idiots* which is why they probably have their jobs instead of being notable cancer specialists,top notch surgeons or even dr oz.


That's exactly what I mean by counterproductive.

They actually studied this stuff.  You did not.  Yet you have the hubris to say you know it better than they do.  Which you do not.  

Take that class in biological dynamical systems. Then you'll have a better sense for what does and does not count as a significant change to transmission/Rt.


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## Kicker4Life (Dec 12, 2020)

And back to round and round we go.....


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## Desert Hound (Dec 12, 2020)




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## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

dad4 said:


> That's exactly what I mean by counterproductive.
> 
> They actually studied this stuff.  You did not.  Yet you have the hubris to say you know it better than they do.  Which you do not.
> 
> Take that class in biological dynamical systems. Then you'll have a better sense for what does and does not count as a significant change to transmission/Rt.


they are the bottom of the barrel out of medical school (just below pediatrician and above coroner) or couldn’t get into medical school so went into health policy. Just like it takes a certain type of nut job to be an attorney, it takes a particularly deficient personality set to get into their job (seriously have never seen such scorn out of my aap friend).


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## N00B (Dec 12, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> There’s a lot of this where’s the flu on the Twitter verse (particularly given flu immunization last I checked was down from normal).  There’s really a basic answer: covid is more contagious than flu so while masks may help against flu they probably help less against covid particularly if the conditions exist for it to be aersolized. Similarly while distancing and isolating a sick resident of your home may help with flu it will help less with covid.


Another possibility is that asymptomatic flu cases are common but not tested for.  Thus presenting the appearance that COVID is more contagious.


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## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> And back to round and round we go.....


theres Totally a psychology thing at work here. Not intended as a criticism of him (it’s just the way he’s wired) but he has a need for the security of experts and control (and perhaps the certainty of science and mathematics) and so reacts to any nuanced criticism of them by lashing out or any deviation in the data with skepticism. My operating principle is to question everything and trust no one (perhaps due to early childhood disappointments probably stemming from my inability to count on peers and parents) so it makes for a toxic relationship and a particular source of resentment.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

N00B said:


> Another possibility is that asymptomatic flu cases are common but not tested for.  Thus presenting the appearance that COVID is more contagious.


don’t have any data on that but I like the question!


----------



## dad4 (Dec 12, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> they are the bottom of the barrel out of medical school (just below pediatrician and above coroner) or couldn’t get into medical school so went into health policy. Just like it takes a certain type of nut job to be an attorney, it takes a particularly deficient personality set to get into their job (seriously have never seen such scorn out of my aap friend).


You should hear what the math dept types think of the LSAT and MCAT.

That doesn’t mean any of us know squat about law or business.  It just means we are full of ourselves and look down on people who pick other professions.

If you want to talk about what does and does not make for a meaningful change the spread of disease, you still need the classes in biological dynamical systems.  It doesn’t matter how smart you are.  You don’t know the material.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You should hear what the math dept types think of the LSAT and MCAT.
> 
> That doesn’t mean any of us know squat about law or business.  It just means we are full of ourselves and look down on people who pick other professions.
> 
> If you want to talk about what does and does not make for a meaningful change the spread of disease, you still need the classes in biological dynamical systems.  It doesn’t matter how smart you are.  You don’t know the material.


this another failing of the math science types. Same with law btw They think all of their field is somehow complicated that only experts can comprehend the basics. Some of it is. Not all of it

just because I never played pro mls doesn’t mean I dont have a comprehension of the basics of goalkeeping or can’t understand goalkeeping. Does big joe understand more than me?  Yes. Absolutely. Does that mean big joe can’t be wrong about a point?  No he can be.  Can I catch him out?  Yes particularly if I’ve come across another source that disputes him

same with flamenco. I spent a year study in spain. Does that mean I know more than Pascual?  No. Does that mean Pascual is infallible? No. Does that mean pascual is immune to being questioned?  No

So let’s take law.  Even in that subject I’m pretty much a generalist and a specialist in say con law knows more than me. Does that mean I can’t opine on con law? No particularly since I’m capable of raising questions. Has that stopped you despite your math background from raising questions or questioning me?  No.  Have I told you to stfu about law because you understand nothing?  No you are bright and the point of the forum is to discuss

but more than that the tradition of the renaissance is that we are all capable of independent thought. Information now is widely available and questions come from all areas. A degree doesn’t make you special or superior to anyone, or smarter since there are many dumb dumbs out there with degrees. It just makes you more knowledgeable, not infallible.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> this another failing of the math science types. Same with law btw They think all of their field is somehow complicated that only experts can comprehend the basics. Some of it is. Not all of it
> 
> just because I never played pro mls doesn’t mean I dont have a comprehension of the basics of goalkeeping or can’t understand goalkeeping. Does big joe understand more than me?  Yes. Absolutely. Does that mean big joe can’t be wrong about a point?  No he can be.  Can I catch him out?  Yes particularly if I’ve come across another source that disputes him
> 
> ...


ps I’ll also reiterate a story I raised before. During lockdowns I had a bad bacterial infection I suspected was drug resistant.  Two specialist told me nah the tests were good and all was well. My gp was suspicious and sent me for a second opinion who said I was a worry wart. One evening I came down with a high fever, vomiting and excruciating pain. The gp wanted to wait 24 hours. I said no and demanded to be switched to an antibiotic I had researched. He resisted...wanted to wait for the test. The next day the tests came back and the specialists noted i might be dead had I waited any longer.  They didn’t want to admit me which would have been the logical steps because of the covid protocols and I’d have to give up custody of the kids (one of whom had been recovering from covid). But for questioning the experts I’d possibly be dead


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 12, 2020)

dad4 said:


> You should hear what the math dept types think of the LSAT and MCAT.
> 
> That doesn’t mean any of us know squat about law or business.  It just means we are full of ourselves and look down on people who pick other professions.
> 
> If you want to talk about what does and does not make for a meaningful change the spread of disease, you still need the classes in biological dynamical systems.  It doesn’t matter how smart you are.  You don’t know the material.


If they know so much, why aren't their predictions better? Why did it take them months to determine COVID was aerosolized? Why did they go back and forth on mask efficacy? I am not claiming they aren't experts, but to what end? If they had managed to earn any credibility at the beginning, maybe people would listen to them now. You don't get credibility with BS like that.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 12, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> If they know so much, why aren't their predictions better? Why did it take them months to determine COVID was aerosolized? Why did they go back and forth on mask efficacy? I am not claiming they aren't experts, but to what end? If they had managed to earn any credibility at the beginning, maybe people would listen to them now. You don't get credibility with BS like that.


The aerosol question got political.  Scientists were willing to say aerosol long before WHO.

Similarly, the CDC was worried that hoarding masks  would make it impossible for hospitals to buy enough to protect doctors and nurses.  The false message was corrected back in April.

I won't defend either message, but that's different from saying I think I understand epidemiology better than they do.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

Don't necessarily agree with the commentary but another mask incident on an airplane involving a child......

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1337872192281907201


----------



## N00B (Dec 12, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> this another failing of the math science types. Same with law btw They think all of their field is somehow complicated that only experts can comprehend the basics. Some of it is. Not all of it
> 
> just because I never played pro mls doesn’t mean I dont have a comprehension of the basics of goalkeeping or can’t understand goalkeeping. Does big joe understand more than me?  Yes. Absolutely. Does that mean big joe can’t be wrong about a point?  No he can be.  Can I catch him out?  Yes particularly if I’ve come across another source that disputes him
> 
> ...


Renaissance style ‘salons’ or gatherings are not permitted at this time... ; )


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 12, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Yup. I’ve pretty much got the country bent to my will at this point.
> 
> So fun watching youth soccer parents get what they deserve. Idiots went to places like Utah so their kids could play a kiddie sports and encourages others to also spread the covid and, guess what, now 3,000 people a day are dying.


Anyone notice how many college football games are being canceled and postponed?


----------



## dad4 (Dec 12, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Anyone notice how many college football games are being canceled and postponed?


yes, but i have no way to know how much is field sports, how much is the weight room, and how much is beer parties.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 12, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Anyone notice how many college football games are being canceled and postponed?


Anyone notice how none of the players died or had any major issue?

When the games get cancelled or postponed the press talks about that aspect.  They don't even in passing wonder if the players will be OK since they know that group of individuals is about the lowest risk


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Anyone notice how none of the players died or had any major issue?
> 
> When the games get cancelled or postponed the press talks about that aspect.  They don't even in passing wonder if the players will be OK since they know that group of individuals is about the lowest risk


By this point too we should be hearing of a lot of stories with long term health issues that stop players from playing in the future.


----------



## espola (Dec 12, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Anyone notice how none of the players died or had any major issue?
> 
> When the games get cancelled or postponed the press talks about that aspect.  They don't even in passing wonder if the players will be OK since they know that group of individuals is about the lowest risk


They are selected in advance for youth, fitness, and no serious pre-existing conditions.


----------



## espola (Dec 12, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> By this point too we should be hearing of a lot of stories with long term health issues that stop players from playing in the future.


It's a little early to know about "long-term" effects.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

espola said:


> It's a little early to know about "long-term" effects.


We can say the same thing about the vaccines...quite a sticky wickett this.....

But you are right....I should have said "intermediate effects"....but the concern with athletes had been if they play it might ruin their future careers.  So far we haven't seen a whole lot of instances of athletes not able to return from COVID.  Sincere question: anyone know of any actual cases of athletes who got COVID and had to hang it up?


----------



## EOTL (Dec 12, 2020)

espola said:


> They are selected in advance for youth, fitness, and no serious pre-existing conditions.


Hey look!  The people with the lowest risk of dying - elite athletes - aren’t dying. Therefore I should be able to kill whoever I want. It makes perfect sense.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 12, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Hey look!  The people with the lowest risk of dying - elite athletes - aren’t dying. Therefore I should be able to kill whoever I want. It makes perfect sense.


Our family thus far has been fortunate. My 79 yr old Mother In Law tested positive, lost her sense of taste for a few days and has been lucky enough (for her age/profile) to come out the other side and go back to work doing what she loves.  

I got curious and started digging around in the CDC website on mortality rates and saw something i am still looking for additional support to substantiate.  You’re pretty good at finding holes, maybe tou can help:


----------



## EOTL (Dec 12, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> Our family thus far has been fortunate. My 79 yr old Mother In Law tested positive, lost her sense of taste for a few days and has been lucky enough (for her age/profile) to come out the other side and go back to work doing what she loves.
> 
> I got curious and started digging around in the CDC website on mortality rates and saw something i am still looking for additional support to substantiate.  You’re pretty good at finding holes, maybe tou can help:
> 
> View attachment 9659


Dig properly. And stop using the wrong data for comparison, like Huckasans did before her stupid wannabe “analysis” was similarly debunked. Per your CDC, keeping in mind that the number of excess deaths so far is above the upper bound of estimates based on prior years, so it’s probably higher than even the 275,059 so far. And it obviously doesn’t account for the massive number we will have in December.

Hugs and kisses, The Truth.


----------



## EOTL (Dec 12, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Don't necessarily agree with the commentary but another mask incident on an airplane involving a child......
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1337872192281907201


What a Karen. Get off the damn plane if you can’t follow the airline’s rules. Period. It’s rude enough for Karen to bring her screaming 2 year old in normal times.  But now making everyone around her run the risk of getting covid from her snotty little brat is inexcusable.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 12, 2020)

EOTL said:


> Dig properly. And stop using the wrong data for comparison, like Huckasans did before her stupid wannabe “analysis” was similarly debunked. Per your CDC, keeping in mind that the number of excess deaths so far is above the upper bound of estimates based on prior years, so it’s probably higher than even the 275,059 so far. And it obviously doesn’t account for the massive number we will have in December.
> 
> Hugs and kisses, The Truth.
> 
> View attachment 9660


I don’t disagree, but question:

A) why you say it is my CDC, isn’t it our CDC? 
B) what is the wrong data?

I’m just trying to understand the discrepancy between the numbers (2.8m in 2018 and 2.7m thru 12/7/20) which would include the 275k excessive deaths right?  So am I right to assume the excess deaths are base on mortality estimate being lower for 2020 than 2018’s actual total?

Don’t try to flip this around into some justification for 11yr olds to play soccer.  I’m asking a legitimate question for legitimate answers.  (It’s open to others as well.)


----------



## watfly (Dec 12, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> I got curious and started digging around in the CDC website on mortality rates and saw something i am still looking for additional support to substantiate.  You’re pretty good at finding holes, maybe tou can help:
> 
> View attachment 9659


Pfft, that's easy...400,000 fewer auto fatalities due to stay at home orders.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 12, 2020)

watfly said:


> Pfft, that's easy...400,000 fewer auto fatalities due to stay at home orders.



there are actually a few things at work in the numbers from what I’ve read:

-car deaths, accidents (more stay at home, less work travel leisure), flu (and entero adenovirus) down
-some covid has been misclassified (the percentage is hotly debated). I know at least one vc suicide death classified as covid
-there’s a delay in the reporting particularly the fall months. Hospitals are overwhelmed and the government reporting is lagging because of staffing problems. Overall (including because of the rise of heart attack, od and suicide deaths this year —again the numbers being hotly debated how much) some projections I’ve read are still predicting a rise over 2018 when all is said and done


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 13, 2020)

Keyontae Johnson


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 13, 2020)

South Korea looks like it's heading into lockdowns as its cases top 1000 for the first time.....









						South Korea's Moon warns of toughest COVID-19 curbs after two days of record cases
					

South Korea's President Moon Jae-in warned on Sunday that COVID-19 restrictions may be raised to the highest level after a second day of record increases in cases as the country battles a harsh third wave of infection.




					www.reuters.com
				




Japan is really interesting too....cases continue to increase but deaths remain relatively low......









						Japan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Japan Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## watfly (Dec 13, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Anyone notice how many college football games are being canceled and postponed?


I guess it's a matter of perspective but I'm impressed with how many games they have had considering the congregate living conditions and the carefree attitude of many college students.  You honestly think many students would give up a "hookup" for fear of Covid, some maybe, but all, doubtful.  Its really a minor miracle the games that have been played.


----------



## watfly (Dec 13, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Keyontae Johnson


Horrible, hopefully he recovers 100%.  If his collapse is related to his prior Covid infection that really changes the equation.


----------



## crush (Dec 13, 2020)

watfly said:


> Yes, we had an employee that lost their taste and smell and tested negative.  They still got a 10 day, paid vacation.
> 
> We follow CalOsha and CDC guidelines at a minimum.  They've reduced the number of days you're required to keep the employee out of work, but I don't have the days memorized based on the circumstances of the symptoms, fevers or exposure.  Our HR person does.


Hey bro, my pal seems to be a SOL.  Works for small Electrical company.  Hourly employee who already used up all his vacation and sick days  Test negative twice but has a cough and runny nose.  Owner is on his last leg and is trying to stay open.  Small crew and but no one wants the sick guy around.  Q  How can my friend get Rona Relief?  Does the owner bare any responsibility?  Owner is SOL?  Thanks for any help you can provide wat fly man


----------



## crush (Dec 13, 2020)

Hell is coming!!!!!  Go figure, what is the Winter of Darkness without hell, right?  I respect their boldness of the heads up and I am getting prepared for a dark and hellish winter. 


New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy says despite “good news” on a COVID-19 vaccine, *“the next number of weeks are going to be hell,* I fear, so we’re begging with people to please, please, please don’t let your guard down even when you’re in private settings.”


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 13, 2020)

crush said:


> Hell is coming!!!!!  Go figure, what is the Winter of Darkness without hell, right?  I respect their boldness of the heads up and I am getting prepared for a dark and hellish winter.
> 
> 
> New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy says despite “good news” on a COVID-19 vaccine, *“the next number of weeks are going to be hell,* I fear, so we’re begging with people to please, please, please don’t let your guard down even when you’re in private settings.”


The HHS Secretary was on Face the Nation.  Said all nursing home patients will be vaccinated by Christmas with the first dose.  If true, it means if we go by deaths alone, by mid-January the emergency will be over (since nursing home patients are overall such a high number of the casualties, and the argument back to people that have argued "if you are scared so much just isolate" has always been "what about nursing home patients and health care workers that can't isolate").  If we are still on cases, this spills all the way through 2021.  Truth probably somewhere in between.


----------



## watfly (Dec 13, 2020)

crush said:


> Hey bro, my pal seems to be a SOL.  Works for small Electrical company.  Hourly employee who already used up all his vacation and sick days  Test negative twice but has a cough and runny nose.  Owner is on his last leg and is trying to stay open.  Small crew and but no one wants the sick guy around.  Q  How can my friend get Rona Relief?  Does the owner bare any responsibility?  Owner is SOL?  Thanks for any help you can provide wat fly man


Well because we can afford it, we pay our employees for Covid absences.  At the beginning of the pandemic we reduced staffing to one person per office and cut office hours, but still paid everyone full-time even though they were working 50%.  We felt a moral obligation to pay and it was also the best long term business solution (which has paid off in spades).   Win/win.

As far as your buddy goes if the electrical company can't afford it then they can't do it.  I have a hard time believing an electrical company is having financial problems, but I don't know their situation.  Every subcontractor I know is beyond swamped with work.  It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for the employer.   If he is sick and ends up infecting other employees with Covid, those employees will probably sue the employer for not protecting them.  If he is Covid negative and they are preventing him from working they are likely liable to him for wages and maybe damages.  In either case, because we live in California, the employee will likely prevail since employers are consider guilty until proven innocent.  They'd be smart to suck it up and pay him.

This is all uncharted territory, I don't know what the right answer is, these are just my thoughts.  Your buddy should probably contact his union or labor board which is much better than listening to me.


----------



## crush (Dec 13, 2020)

watfly said:


> Well because we can afford it, we pay our employees for Covid absences.  At the beginning of the pandemic we reduced staffing to one person per office and cut office hours, but still paid everyone full-time even though they were working 50%.  We felt a moral obligation to pay and it was also the best long term business solution (which has paid off in spades).   Win/win.
> 
> As far as your buddy goes if the electrical company can't afford it then they can't do it.  I have a hard time believing an electrical company is having financial problems, but I don't know their situation.  Every subcontractor I know is beyond swamped with work.  It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for the employer.   If he is sick and ends up infecting other employees with Covid, those employees will probably sue the employer for not protecting them.  If he is Covid negative and they are preventing him from working they are likely liable to him for wages and maybe damages.  In either case, because we live in California, the employee will likely prevail since employers are consider guilty until proven innocent.  They'd be smart to suck it up and pay him.
> 
> This is all uncharted territory, I don't know what the right answer is, these are just my thoughts.  Your buddy should probably contact his union or labor board which is much better than listening to me.


One man tech dude is killing it.  If you have three trucks and two employees, your stuck in a rock and hard place.  They started two years ago and wanted to go enterprise but the Rona came and well, he's about to close I think.  The other employee quit I just found out because the sick guy, who feels better, is coming back to the crew tomorrow and Bobby is rightfully scared.  Add two more to the unemployment debit card.  At least folks can buy some food. and pay for internet and have a little spending money.  I would NOT and I mean NOT, start a new business.  I heard big bro is going to kick down a little extra for those who are SOL.  Thanks for the info.  You seem like a great guy to work for.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 13, 2020)

News leaked out this am the White House was scheduled to get the vaccine in the very first rollout and the President-Elect shortly thereafter.  Ds spent much of the day attacking Trump for jumping the queue.  Trump just said the White House shouldn't come first and though he'll take it eventually he isn't going to take it in the first round.  Puts Biden now in an awkward place given his age and that the transition involves multiple unavoidable face to face meetings.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 13, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> News leaked out this am the White House was scheduled to get the vaccine in the very first rollout and the President-Elect shortly thereafter.  Ds spent much of the day attacking Trump for jumping the queue.  Trump just said the White House shouldn't come first and though he'll take it eventually he isn't going to take it in the first round.  Puts Biden now in an awkward place given his age and that the transition involves multiple unavoidable face to face meetings.


Regardless of who is in office, I think it makes sense to have them vaccinated ASAP. They need to be out there communicating with a cross-section of people.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 13, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Regardless of who is in office, I think it makes sense to have them vaccinated ASAP. They need to be out there communicating with a cross-section of people.


Might make sense but Biden will have to ask for a special accommodation (to jump the VP since his staff won't get it if the White House staff doesn't get it).  It's an unnecessary own goal they forced.  Plus Trump's already had it so this costs him nothing.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 13, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Might make sense but Biden will have to ask for a special accommodation (to jump the VP since his staff won't get it if the White House staff doesn't get it).  It's an unnecessary own goal they forced.  Plus Trump's already had it so this costs him nothing.


I love politics, don't you?


----------



## espola (Dec 13, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Might make sense but Biden will have to ask for a special accommodation (to jump the VP since his staff won't get it if the White House staff doesn't get it).  It's an unnecessary own goal they forced.  Plus Trump's already had it so this costs him nothing.


T is already supposedly immune because of recovering from the disease, so this tactic comes across as selfish.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 13, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ok, I'll do something a little easier than beds that makes the same point. Experts: Joe Biden (JB) and CDC Director Robert Redfield (R)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I believe this should go in the "Good News" thread, but we already have the related post above. So, Joe and Robert predicting 200K and 250K for December, and Bill stating, “In the near term, it’s bad news,” Gates went on, citing an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model that shows the U.S. could suffer more than 200,000 additional deaths by *April 1, 2021*, from the virus.

I'll note that in the original story, "Redfield said the U.S. could see 450,000 deaths over the next three months" (By March 1st)

Guess we need to add Gates to "Team Reality". Grace's label of "Team Scared and Delusional" is still very much in play for Biden and Redfield.









						Gates Says Next 4-6 Months Could Be ‘Worst Of Pandemic’ As Vaccine Shipments Roll Out
					

Gates cited a model that projects as many as 200,000 more Americans could die from Covid-19 by April 1.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 13, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I believe this should go in the "Good News" thread, but we already have the related post above. So, Joe and Robert predicting 200K and 250K for December, and Bill stating, “In the near term, it’s bad news,” Gates went on, citing an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model that shows the U.S. could suffer more than 200,000 additional deaths by *April 1, 2021*, from the virus.
> 
> I'll note that in the original story, "Redfield said the U.S. could see 450,000 deaths over the next three months" (By March 1st)
> 
> ...


Gates also said indoor dining should be closed for the next 4-6 months.


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 13, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Gates also said indoor dining should be closed for the next 4-6 months.


Was he also the one that said we can't have bars and schools open? I can't remember..


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 13, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Gates also said indoor dining should be closed for the next 4-6 months.


Is he getting counsel from a Santa Clara County Mathematics teacher?


----------



## crush (Dec 14, 2020)

Come and get your Virus everyone.  Step right up and get the Bat Virus.  24/7 baby!!!


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 14, 2020)

Seeing reports that ICU capacity in S. CA is down to 2.7%. Anyone have a legit source to prove/disprove that?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 14, 2020)

Glitterhater said:


> Was he also the one that said we can't have bars and schools open? I can't remember..


He mentions both in this.









						Bill Gates finds 'no cost-benefit ratio' in reopening bars until vaccine availability
					

Bill Gates said that he can’t see the cost-benefit ratio of reopening of bars and restaurants as the United States continue to witness a surge in COVID-19 cases




					www.republicworld.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 15, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Time for an update. This is what I manually pulled (you can check these at (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)
> 
> The average of the first 8 days projected over the whole month would give
> 71,335 (Daily average: 2,301)
> ...


Weekly Update to predicted deaths in December.

I expect the average to continue to rise as cases rose the prior week (about 5% IIRC) and cases were rising significantly faster than that the week prior.

Current Daily Average: 2,356
Projection with current average: 73,034

Initial projections
Biden: 250,000 (Daily average: 8,064)
Redfield: 200,000  (Daily average: 6,452)
Me: 62,000  (Daily average: 2,000)

Daily average needed for the rest of the month to reach the projection
(Biden) 250K - 12,766/day
(Redfield) 200K - 9,825/day
100K - 3,942/day
80K - 2,766/day
(me) 62K - 1707/day


----------



## crush (Dec 15, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Weekly Update to predicted deaths in December.
> 
> I expect the average to continue to rise as cases rose the prior week (about 5% IIRC) and cases were rising significantly faster than that the week prior.
> 
> ...


WHO is not dying now because were all inside?  Think and use your brains everyone.  Death is death.  Dont be afraid of death.


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 15, 2020)

crush said:


> WHO is not dying now because were all inside?  Think and use your brains everyone.  Death is death.  Dont be afraid of death.


This is dumb, even for you. "Don't be afraid of death"? Are you volunteering?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 15, 2020)

Glitterhater said:


> This is dumb, even for you. "Don't be afraid of death"? Are you volunteering?


He does have a bit of a point.  Death is part of the human condition and comes to everyone, from the moment you are born.  The only thing we can do is postpone it, not stop it.  Any loss of human life, is of course sad....the death of a 90 year old that's lived a long a fulfilling life should be mourned, but the loss of a child's life is an absolute tragedy.  Our ancestors have had many worse diseases and it was not that long ago that children were taken regularly by small pox, measles and scarlet fever.  Our technology has made us arrogant (believing that we have somehow evolved beyond the meat suit), but we haven't really changed that much as a species for the length of our recorded history.


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 15, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> He does have a bit of a point.  Death is part of the human condition and comes to everyone, from the moment you are born.  The only thing we can do is postpone it, not stop it.  Any loss of human life, is of course sad....the death of a 90 year old that's lived a long a fulfilling life should be mourned, but the loss of a child's life is an absolute tragedy.  Our ancestors have had many worse diseases and it was not that long ago that children were taken regularly by small pox, measles and scarlet fever.  Our technology has made us arrogant (believing that we have somehow evolved beyond the meat suit), but we haven't really changed that much as a species for the length of our recorded history.
> [/QUOTE
> And I agree with all of that. I was arguing his continual flair for the dramatic was over the top, (even for him.) There is a very good chance he will not die from COVID and he knows it.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 15, 2020)

They really don't want any return to normal even after getting 2 doses of the shot....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1338917618808475648


----------



## crush (Dec 15, 2020)

Glitterhater said:


> This is dumb, even for you. "Don't be afraid of death"? Are you volunteering?


Dumb and dumber is me for sure so no harm or hurt feelings from me.  I'm not afraid to die and I'm even less afraid of getting the Rona as my true and only cause of death.  I will say if I get attacked by a shark surfing and I die, my chance of having Rona when i die is more likely.  Does that make sense?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 15, 2020)

While it is difficult to compare them, the Moderna vaccine seems to have more side effects....being described as "unpleasant' and some grade 3 and 4 level side effects.









						Here are the common side effects you should expect if you get Moderna's coronavirus shot
					

Moderna vaccine has no major safety concerns but causes temporary, expected side effects for most people, like fatigue, headache, and muscle pain.




					www.businessinsider.com
				






			https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download


----------



## watfly (Dec 15, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> While it is difficult to compare them, the Moderna vaccine seems to have more side effects....being described as "unpleasant' and some grade 3 and 4 level side effects.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Doesn't seem like anything out of the ordinary.  Way better than some of the side effects of the medications they advertise on TV, which I won't describe since I'm in mixed company.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 15, 2020)

watfly said:


> Doesn't seem like anything out of the ordinary.  Way better than some of the side effects of the medications they advertise on TV, which I won't describe since I'm in mixed company.


The difference is the frequency.  Odds are you will have side effects and the odds of having a 3 or 4 level side effect are unusually high.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 15, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> They really don't want any return to normal even after getting 2 doses of the shot....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1338917618808475648


What is the point then? 

I saw some idiot on TV suggesting that people who are vaccinated should wear a different color mask so people know they got vaccinated. 

If you are vaccinated you are not likely going to catch or transmit it. 

Anyway have fun trying to get people to social distance and wear masks, and limit schooling, etc after a vaccines is widely available.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 15, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> What is the point then?
> 
> I saw some idiot on TV suggesting that people who are vaccinated should wear a different color mask so people know they got vaccinated.
> 
> ...


This is the hard part I'm trying to figure out...does this thing disappear by summer (despite that there is no green tier in California, and knowing that kids and certain people won't be able to get the Rona shot [e.g., allergies, cancer patients given the side effects, kids since no approved vaccine]), or do they really attempt to make a run to keep the restrictions going into 2022 because of these people?  Part of the answer is do they mandate it (because that will tell us how much cases and hospitalizations drop)....until I know the answer on the mandate I'm not prepared to opine.  My gut tells me you are right but by God the Newsom/Gates/Fauci clique are serious about ongoing restrictions.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 15, 2020)

another church case.....




__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 15, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> They really don't want any return to normal even after getting 2 doses of the shot....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1338917618808475648


These "zero risk" folks are the QANON of the left. I'll give them credit for their zealotry for restrictions in the face of no scientific basis. True believers.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 15, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Anyway have fun trying to get people to social distance and wear masks, and limit schooling, etc after a vaccines is widely available.


This is my thought.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 15, 2020)

This seems odd to me. Some hospitals in Oregon are waiting days to start giving the vaccine.

----

In Texas, Delaware and Puerto Rico, hospitals gave their workers the shot just one day after getting the vaccine. New York and Colorado acted even quicker, administering the vaccine within hours of receiving it.

In Oregon, Legacy Health was the first hospital system to get the Pfizer vaccine. It arrived Monday. The hospital has yet to provide a timeline as to when it'll start the vaccinations.

On Tuesday, OHSU and Kaiser Permanente received their shipments. OHSU has said it'll start vaccinating its employees Wednesday, but Kaiser says it's waiting until Friday.

----









						Oregon hospitals wait days to administer COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna vaccine expected soon
					

Health professionals across the country are getting their first COVID-19 vaccine this week, but hospitals in Oregon have yet to vaccinate their frontline workers. In Texas, Delaware and Puerto Rico, hospitals gave their workers the shot just one day after getting the vaccine. New York and...




					katu.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 16, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> What is the point then?
> 
> I saw some idiot on TV suggesting that people who are vaccinated should wear a different color mask so people know they got vaccinated.
> 
> ...


The science isn’t clear on any of that just yet, and on the apparent open it all up now thought? Ask a long hauler.


----------



## crush (Dec 16, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The science isn’t clear on any of that just yet, and on the apparent open it all up now thought? Ask a long hauler.


----------



## 46n2 (Dec 16, 2020)




----------



## Grace T. (Dec 16, 2020)

Just an anecdote but one on COVID classifications....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1339051259861450754


----------



## espola (Dec 16, 2020)

"We want them infected" -- t science advice Paul Alexander, July 4


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 16, 2020)

Update: Questions raised over vaccine injection at UMC event; UMC says nurse received second shot to eliminate doubt over vaccination
					

This article has been updated to include a response and photo from UMC. EL PASO, Texas (KTSM) — Some of our viewers raised questions about video KTSM 9 News showed from Tuesday’s COVID-19 vac…




					www.ktsm.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 16, 2020)

Begun the vaccine wars have....









						Should Companies Require Employees to Take the Vaccine? (Published 2020)
					

It’s a debate that’s roiling boardrooms around the world.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 16, 2020)

What happened in Tennessee????

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1339063126893895681


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 16, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> What happened in Tennessee????
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1339063126893895681


“Never say never” Romeo Void
“Never say peak” Dr. Fauci


----------



## crush (Dec 16, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Just an anecdote but one on COVID classifications....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1339051259861450754


Playing with death to fit one's agenda is not cool is all I can say and I would watch out for Mother Karma.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 16, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> What happened in Tennessee????
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1339063126893895681


Yeah, Tennessee is an outlier.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 16, 2020)

Pence apparently to get the vaccine is an event he's hoping to televise live on all networks.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 16, 2020)

San Diego judge just struck down the restaurant ban there.

Also in the news Biden apparently backtracking on his push to open the schools right away.  Now says 100 days (by which time we are in April and nearing widespread deployment of the vaccine).


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 17, 2020)

UCLA Survey: Majority Of Nurses Wish To Delay COVID-19 Vaccination
					

A majority of local healthcare workers have reservations about the COVID-19 vaccine authorized for emergency use, according to a new survey from the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health.




					losangeles.cbslocal.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 17, 2020)

Between courts now striking indoor worship bans, courts striking indoor/outdoor dining restrictions, and exemptions having been made for practically all retail we are running out of things to lockdown....oh yeah....except youth sports and schools


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 17, 2020)

Weird 2 in Alaska.  Statistically it's possible but incredibly unlikely....something must be afoot.









						2 Alaska health care workers have allergic reactions after taking Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine
					

The health care worker who reacted more seriously had no previous history of allergic reactions, but recovered quickly and urges others to get the shot.




					www.cbsnews.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 17, 2020)

Not a great kickoff to the vaccine marketing campaign....they are trying to say she has a condition but the fact that it happened almost 20 minutes after the vaccine isn't a great look









						First frontline workers in Chattanooga get COVID-19 vaccine Thursday
					

UPDATE (Monday, December 21st): On their social media pages, CHI Memorial shared a video Monday featuring nurse Tiffany Dover, who was seen fainting shortly after taking the vaccine last week, which doctors and the CDC say can happen. CHI Memorial says in the video's caption that Dover is "doing...




					newschannel9.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 17, 2020)

A piece criticizing the vaccine rollout.....makes some good points that the rollout could cost lives









						The Current COVID-19 Vaccine Roll-Out Doesn't Make Sense
					

Against the bleak backdrop of a dismal 2020 and a worsening pandemic, November finally gifted the world some good news: the Pfizer and Moderna Covid-19 vaccines were shockingly effective. We celebrat




					www.realclearscience.com


----------



## notintheface (Dec 17, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Not a great kickoff to the vaccine marketing campaign....they are trying to say she has a condition but the fact that it happened almost 20 minutes after the vaccine isn't a great look


"Dover also told us she has a condition where she often faints when she feels pain, so this wasn't a surprise to her that it happened."


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 17, 2020)

@dad4 hit hardest...again.

“The California experience was especially perplexing. Despite strict COVID-19 rules, the state has set records for new cases all week, including more than 50,000 on Thursday.
Florida, with no business restrictions, reported 13,148 new cases.”


----------



## notintheface (Dec 17, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> A piece criticizing the vaccine rollout.....makes some good points that the rollout could cost lives


"As a family physician, and not someone who pursued training in infectious disease/epidemiology, or even faintly considered a masters degree in public health  while in medical school, I claim no expertise in this matter"


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 17, 2020)

@dad4 ?

Not sure if you want to get checked out. But hell...take no chances as you say.









						Low testosterone can lead to severe Covid-19 outcomes for men: Study
					






					www.thehindubusinessline.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 17, 2020)

Tucker getting in on the vaccine questioning......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1339775238616264704


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 17, 2020)

notintheface said:


> "As a family physician, and not someone who pursued training in infectious disease/epidemiology, or even faintly considered a masters degree in public health  while in medical school, I claim no expertise in this matter"


"The state tells us the situation is not dangerous.  Have faith comrades.  The state tells us it wants to prevent a panic.  Listen well.  It's true when the people see the police they will be afraid.  But it is my experience that when the people ask questions that are not in their own best intersts they should simply be told to keep their minds on their labors and leave matters of the state to the state."


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 17, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> @dad4 hit hardest...again.
> 
> “The California experience was especially perplexing. Despite strict COVID-19 rules, the state has set records for new cases all week, including more than 50,000 on Thursday.
> Florida, with no business restrictions, reported 13,148 new cases.”


To be fair, 15k of the 50k in CA, were due to backlog in reporting. 

But I agree there is NO scientific evidence that has been presented that shows Outdoor dining outdoor activities have any significant contribution to the spread.


----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)

*Mike Rowe on coronavirus lockdowns: 'There's a new word for 40 million people in this country: Non-essential'*

Yes Mike, you said it right.  I feel I am non-essential.  I want to be essential so bad.


----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)

@Giesbock Hey bro, step right up and get your Bat Virus Shot ((BVS)) so you can move about the country freely without being screamed at for not wearing a mask. 

A *highly credentialed* research scientist has called out vaccine producers for failing to implement basic safety standards, warning that *“21%* of people are having serious adverse events from this vaccine.”

This is Dr James. 


Holds Phd bro in Bio and knows his stuff.  21% chance is not for me pal.  I heard one lady can;t open her right eye and her left ear is dripping out hot wax and she still has the runs after a week.  Another guy can't stop breathing.  Crazy times.  Please do let me know how it goes for you.


----------



## MARsSPEED (Dec 18, 2020)

*My body, my choice!!!*


----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)

MARsSPEED said:


> *My body, my choice!!!*


Mars in da house.  Welcome back brother.  EOTL has not changed at all.  Mean little man he is.  Messy got kicked out but I think Messy, EOTL, The Long Game and espola are one and the same.  It is your body bro.  Me and my wife WILL NEVER TAKE THAT CRAP IN OUR BODIES.  NEVER NEVER NEVER is the new RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA.


----------



## MARsSPEED (Dec 18, 2020)

My wife is an Executive in NIH. I get the full debriefing weekly. NIH has a bi-weekly town hall/debriefing with Fauci and many other top doctors in their respective fields.

This is what I know about the current vaccines. Two doses to start, then a booster every 3 to 6 months. Masks are expected to be mandated by the incoming administration through the year 2022. 

Vaccines have side effects and it is unknown what we will see large scale. The most alarming side effect was a study in the UK with the possibility of creating infertility in woman. *It has not been proven as of yet.*

Let's talk about this realistically. Big Pharma will sweep anything under the carpet if possible. Please remember that this vaccine WILL be the most lucrative "medicine" in the history of mankind. It's not even close. It is also one giant step towards socializing medicine. If you can understand that, I'm sure you have the common sense to understand why many will hide truths at all costs. 

No surprise about EOTL. As for the rest of them, the election is over, we lost...and I am moving on. I care more about adults being informed CoVid than anything else politically.


----------



## MARsSPEED (Dec 18, 2020)

Worst Vaccines in History For Reference




__





						Historical Safety Concerns | Vaccine Safety | CDC
					

Read more about past vaccine safety concerns, how they have been resolved, and what we have learned.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)

MARsSPEED said:


> No surprise about EOTL. As for the rest of them, the election is over, we lost...and I am moving on. I care more about adults being informed CoVid than anything else politically.


The losers this year are the honest and hard working Americans who not only have lost everything, they now have to wear a mask, stay home, dont see grand kids and will be forced to take that 21% chance of having a reaction to it, the bat.  Thanks Batman for nothing.  They call for unity all the while they come them chumps, MotherFu&&ers, bible believing fools, adoption lovers, cool mining dummies', freaking frakers, blue color idiots and just deplorable humans that are racist anyways and trumpest  and just folks with guns and want their freedom to be who they want to be, where they want to be.  I have my hope set on a intervention Mars.  If no help, I will go live in cave far away from here.


----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)




----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)




----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)

You know what is super bad news?  Some think half of this country is in bed with China and some think half is in bed with Russia.  WTF is all that about?  I for one only care about America.  America first and then we can chat it up with the others.  This is insane.  If you say, "I stand for freedom and the American way, you will be a Russia Russia Russia friend of Russia, plus a Racist and stupid idiot and if you stand with Joe and his son Hunter, that means you made a deal with CCP, as did the others in politics.  Do I have to pick a side?  Cant we all just get along and pick Americans first?  I mean all Americans first to get food help, a job and then we go and help others.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 18, 2020)

There's more and more evidence that some people are getting the Rona twice.  Either way you slice it it is horrible news: a. either the testing is really very broken, or b. people are getting it 2x for a multiple possible number of reasons.  So far the numbers seem to be really small, but not a lot of time has passed, and the evidence is mixed right now on whether the 2x is less severe.  If it's not the testing/inactive virus, it would suggest vaccination is not going to do the trick, repeated vaccinations will be necessary, and this thing becomes something which we just have to live with along with the flu.









						Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'Have I got Covid for a second time?'
					

Dr John Wright thought he'd had Covid in spring - but last week he tested positive. So what's going on?



					www.bbc.com


----------



## watfly (Dec 18, 2020)

Can anyone get beyond this paywall.  All I could get to was no strict lockdowns or massive testing.









						The Japanese authorities understood covid-19 better than most
					

That has helped keep Japan’s outbreak relatively small




					www.economist.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 18, 2020)

crush said:


>


----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)

watfly said:


> Can anyone get beyond this paywall.  All I could get to was no strict lockdowns or massive testing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My wifes bro teaches English over there.  We just talked the other day and their all doing great.


----------



## watfly (Dec 18, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


>


I probably shouldn't, but I derive quite a bit of enjoyment by seeing these sanctimonious a-holes, that prey on the weak, get their comeuppance.


----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


>


I told my minister friend the other day that one good thing about the virus was disrupting all these churches making money off folks.  He got mad at me.  He knows I am against any minister making money in America.  This is my MOO and I told him and others like him where I stand years ago.  He makes a good $195,000 a year deal after it's all said and done.  Wife helps with kids ministry so he says its a two for one deal, meaning wife and him full time for the church so it's like $95,000 each a year.  Plus they get to tell the flock what to do and tell all the others who dont go to their church that their going to hell unless they go to their true and only church.  They teach 1st century Christianity like no one's business.  I tell him the only area I see you need to fix is the money part.  He got mad at me again and said Paul made his living on the good book.  I told him to read up again and get back to me.  I'm still waiting......


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 18, 2020)

The newest front in the vaccine wars....some people feel it is important to level the playing field and make sure white privilege is checked.....









						The Elderly vs. Essential Workers: Who Should Get the Coronavirus Vaccine First?
					

The C.D.C. will soon decide which group to recommend next, and the debate over the trade-offs is growing heated. Ultimately, states will determine whom to include.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## crush (Dec 18, 2020)

watfly said:


> I probably shouldn't, but I derive quite a bit of enjoyment by seeing these sanctimonious a-holes, that prey on the weak, get their comeuppance.


It's ok bro, some of these guys prey on sheep that need help.  I was a sheep when I was 18.  My mom moved out to Indio and told me I could live in her trailer or go on my own.  She took me to 18 and that was the deal she made with the State of California.  So I told her thanks for all the love and care but I'll stay in OC.  I got lonely and fearful of the unknown being all on my own.  No money and no help.  So I went to a church called ___________________ in Anaheim.  Neighbor invited me.  These dudes were like Hells Angels for Christ on Bikes.  That was my first rodeo in the Evangelical movement.  They also helped the homeless and had houses called, "The House of Peter"  and "House of Timothy and Paul."  One of the Pastor got busted for sleeping around so I bailed after that.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 19, 2020)

What’s going on in Europe?

Spain, which has always run ahead of everyone, seems to be in a third wave. If true that’s not great news for us since half the country is still in the middle of the second.

the Uk after having numbers drop initially due to government restrictions now has the numbers rising again. Interestingly youth soccer had been suspended at the start of the second lockdowns but resumed this last week.

Germany’s numbers continue to look grim and unlike France government actions have not curbed rising cases (perhaps because they got largely spared the first wave)

this leads me to a hunch: lockdowns work but only if they have limited exceptions...socialization is the main form of transmission so only by forcing people to stay home so you have an impact (which is why Los Angeles restaurant/school shutdowns and masks haven’t worked...people still out shopping and working....as the Tom cruise rant shows if people work they are out socializing).  Partial lockdowns aren’t enough to change the directions of curves.  The other problems with lockdowns is that like in the uk and spain you can’t keep them up forever so they have to be targeted and timed to hit the worst of the curves for a limited amount of weeks (the exact opposite of California’s approach)


----------



## crush (Dec 19, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> What’s going on in Europe?
> 
> Spain, which has always run ahead of everyone, seems to be in a third wave. If true that’s not great news for us since half the country is still in the middle of the second.
> 
> ...


Tier 4 the UK


----------



## crush (Dec 19, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> What’s going on in Europe?
> 
> Spain, which has always run ahead of everyone, seems to be in a third wave. If true that’s not great news for us since half the country is still in the middle of the second.
> 
> ...


Yes, and if they dont obey ole Tommy boy, he will fire their asses, those stupid Motherfuddrukers.  Loser quit after the second yells and put downs.  Dudes at the strip joint refused to wear a mask the cops said so they got shot?


----------



## crush (Dec 19, 2020)

Attention Walmart Shoppers.  The third wave is now here.  Please be nice and order take out from one of the mom & pops food joints down in da city. Their hurting and can use a little Christmas cheer ((Angelos Cheese Burgers in Encinites closed????)).  I talked to one owner WHO has to sit all his customers in the freaking street, where cars go by.  Orange cones letting the fast cars know people are eating in the street now.  He told me he will probably shut her down unless we have a REVOLUTION!!!! Insane what I saw downtown Encinites.  My family and I had to share a bench looking over moon beach so we could eat.  Mask on everywhere btw so good job Enceintes  

Now we all know who is out to get us, right?


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 20, 2020)




----------



## crush (Dec 20, 2020)

California isn't the only place people are running away from.  The streets of London were like LA in the old days last night.  Everyone is leaving.....

*"Trying To Get The Hell Out" - Emergency Lockdown In London Triggers Mass Exodus

Winter of Darkness starts tomorrow.  *


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Dec 20, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 9743


Lockdowns don’t work? California seems to just be following the same policies Europe is instituting. Globalism and group think at its best. Then blame the people for not complying when the already proven failed policies don’t work after multiple lockdowns. Insanity at it finest. I wonder if the governor has anyone in the room with a differing thought on how to fight this or just a bunch of political hacks trying to figure out how to make him look like he led us in the right direction after so many poor decisions. Seems like this state is led by a band of fools.


----------



## crush (Dec 20, 2020)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> Lockdowns don’t work? California seems to just be following the same policies Europe is instituting. Globalism and group think at its best. Then blame the people for not complying when the already proven failed policies don’t work after multiple lockdowns. Insanity at it finest. I wonder if the governor has anyone in the room with a differing thought on how to fight this or just a bunch of political hacks trying to figure out how to make him look like he led us in the right direction after so many poor decisions. Seems like this state is led by a band of fools.


STFU asshat GTFO!!!!  Stop disobeying the rules and obey and you can live.  All the new colors we added to the goal posts we move when you kick one down the middle.  Opps, you missed.  Please try again.  I know with the last miss your biz is all over and your just a SOL, just like the lady who painted faces for a living.  You can;t come within 6 feet of a face without mask.  So she got EDD and now she is being told she has to pay half of it back because she used "gross" not "net" to claim her prize.  So she can;t work at all and now she has to pay back her loan from state, that she thought they were trying to help her out.  Nope, loan with interest and no way to pay back unless she get's job at Grub Up.


----------



## crush (Dec 20, 2020)

OC is breaking records, right before Winter of Dark.  

Coronavirus: Orange County reported an all-time daily high of *3,445 new cases* as of Dec. 19 

Of the cumulative *1,760 deaths reported* from the virus, *626 were skilled nursing facility residents, 159 were in assisted living facilities and four were listed as homeless.*

The county’s breakdown of deaths by age is as follows:  75% of the deaths are over 70.  1 kid under 17 died and they had cancer.    


*85 and older: 33.07% (582)*
*75-84: 21.99% (387)*
*65-74: 19.72% (347)*
55-64: 13.96% (241)
45-54: 6.18% (130)
35-44: 2.42% (42)
25-34: 1.39% (24)
18-24: 0.23% (5)
17 and younger: 0.06% (1)


----------



## watfly (Dec 20, 2020)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> Lockdowns don’t work? California seems to just be following the same policies Europe is instituting. Globalism and group think at its best. Then blame the people for not complying when the already proven failed policies don’t work after multiple lockdowns. Insanity at it finest. I wonder if the governor has anyone in the room with a differing thought on how to fight this or just a bunch of political hacks trying to figure out how to make him look like he led us in the right direction after so many poor decisions. Seems like this state is led by a band of fools.


If lockdowns ever worked, to whatever extent, they have completely lost their effectiveness in large part to how they have been implemented (ie arbitrary dictates} and the "do as I say, not as I do" attitude of those that dictated the mandates.  They also have lost effectiveness simply as a function of time (ie lockdown fatigue}.  Let's be honest, how many people predicted in March that we would be in this situation in December. (Queue responses that its people like me that have caused us to be in our current situation).


----------



## crush (Dec 20, 2020)

watfly said:


> If lockdowns ever worked, to whatever extent, they have completely lost their effectiveness in large part to how they have been implemented (ie arbitrary dictates} and the "do as I say, not as I do" attitude of those that dictated the mandates.  They also have lost effectiveness simply as a function of time (ie lockdown fatigue}.  Let's be honest, how many people predicted in March that we would be in this situation in December. (Queue responses that its people like me that have caused us to be in our current situation).


Winter of Darkness has to have hell in it bro and nothing like not knowing how you will pay rent next month to add to hells fire.  No job and no way for food is gasoline to the fire.  The sh*t is about to hit the fan.  Once it does, go towards the Light.  Everyone has to be in the darkness in order to see the Light.  Most folks EDD will be over with in a few weeks.  Eviction notices will be coming out soon after that.  Owners of these evictions have been paying the bank on time this whole time and they need to find someone who has a job so they can get paid and not carry the burden of owning three extra homes.  Need to kick out the bums who lost their jobs and throw them in the street.  Maybe a Fema House out in 29 Palm?  All because your non essential and Tom Cruise and his movie is the most important waiver issued.  Loan from the state has to be paid back for face paint lady and she's not the only one who just found out they actually got a loan with interest, not a helping hand.  Plus, no job to go look for work.  Seriously, no job, no money to pay for things and no one to help, just loan the idiot loser with interest.  I'm sure if you can;t pay, their find community service job out in Barstow.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 20, 2020)

watfly said:


> If lockdowns ever worked, to whatever extent, they have completely lost their effectiveness in large part to how they have been implemented (ie arbitrary dictates} and the "do as I say, not as I do" attitude of those that dictated the mandates.  They also have lost effectiveness simply as a function of time (ie lockdown fatigue}.  Let's be honest, how many people predicted in March that we would be in this situation in December. (Queue responses that its people like me that have caused us to be in our current situation).


In terms of hospital capacity, is it a function of CA just not having enough hospital beds to begin with compared to their population.  

I don't have a link as proof but have heard that CA has about 80,000 beds to care for a population of over 40M.  FL has a population of 22M with about 55,000 beds.  I know crazy talk about rationing care makes people freak out, but the bed to population ratio in CA is a bit off.  I'm sure there is surge capacity.  There is a public health planner somewhere starting to panic at these numbers.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 20, 2020)




----------



## crush (Dec 20, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 9747
> 
> View attachment 9748


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 20, 2020)

watfly said:


> If lockdowns ever worked, to whatever extent, they have completely lost their effectiveness in large part to how they have been implemented (ie arbitrary dictates} and the "do as I say, not as I do" attitude of those that dictated the mandates.  They also have lost effectiveness simply as a function of time (ie lockdown fatigue}.  Let's be honest, how many people predicted in March that we would be in this situation in December. (Queue responses that its people like me that have caused us to be in our current situation).


I've come around to the idea that the effectiveness of lockdowns really don't have any relation to indoor dining, or worship houses, or soccer tournaments. or retail.  Really, I think when it gets down to it it is a function of mobility.  The more out and about a population is, the higher the risk of transmission.  I think it's that simple.  That explains why Belgium and the Neatherlands began to inflect before lockdowns went into effect (because people freaked out and stopped socializing before hand) and why California is still going up despite the governor's hypocritical measures (Los Angeles freeways are still packed).  It explains why the Australian lockdowns worked, and why the UK lockdowns had the strange results they did this second time around.

Some of us have been saying that the end result of trying to perpetually lockdown was that lockdowns would lose their effectiveness.  Some of us argued we should be open in the summer (notwithstanding the small summer SoCal mini surge) and preserve our bullets for when they were most needed.   One group of people wanted perpetual lockdowns and "keep people safe".  One group of people wanted it to be done with.  As a result, we got neither.  And the politicians anytime the situation gets worse feel they need to do something-- so they do idiotic things with low resistance as opposed to things which might make a difference but require more political risk.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 20, 2020)

Fed's are getting the vaccine rollout wrong.  There's no reason Marco Rubio or AOC should be getting the vaccine now.  They should be moving from 75+ and then down every tier every 10 years.....you can prioritize essential workers and harder hit minorities within those tiers if you like but there's no reason a 20 year old police officer should get it before a 65 year old person shut in their house.  Lawyers in 1c is funny....lawyers apparently more valuable than hair dressers.  Downs young adult who are dying at an incredibly high rate should have been prioritized in front of lawyers.









						CDC panel says frontline essential workers, people 75 years and older should get Covid vaccine next
					

"We are faced with the situation, at least in the short term, where we have a limited supply of vaccine available to us," Dr. Nancy Messonnier of the CDC said.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 20, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Fed's are getting the vaccine rollout wrong.  There's no reason Marco Rubio or AOC should be getting the vaccine now.  They should be moving from 75+ and then down every tier every 10 years.....you can prioritize essential workers and harder hit minorities within those tiers if you like but there's no reason a 20 year old police officer should get it before a 65 year old person shut in their house.  Lawyers in 1c is funny....lawyers apparently more valuable than hair dressers.  Downs young adult who are dying at an incredibly high rate should have been prioritized in front of lawyers.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This isn't good news for getting back to normal anytime soon in CA. (links follow each).

Evidently, in Oregon, the vaccine is more complex than it is in Texas, Delaware, Puerto Rico, New York, and Colorado. In Houston, some don't like the virus's politics.

--- Oregon

In Texas, Delaware and Puerto Rico, hospitals gave their workers the shot just one day after getting the vaccine. New York and Colorado acted even quicker, administering the vaccine within hours of receiving it.

In Oregon, Legacy Health was the first hospital system to get the Pfizer vaccine. It arrived Monday. The hospital has yet to provide a timeline as to when it'll start the vaccinations.

On Tuesday, OHSU and Kaiser Permanente received their shipments. OHSU has said it'll start vaccinating its employees Wednesday, but Kaiser says it's waiting until Friday.

"This is a new vaccine, as I said, and it’s a complex vaccine," Dr. Katie Sharff, an infectious disease physician for Kaiser Permanente Northwest, said.









						Oregon hospitals wait days to administer COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna vaccine expected soon
					

Health professionals across the country are getting their first COVID-19 vaccine this week, but hospitals in Oregon have yet to vaccinate their frontline workers. In Texas, Delaware and Puerto Rico, hospitals gave their workers the shot just one day after getting the vaccine. New York and...




					katu.com
				




---- Houston

A Houston critical care doctor told NPR that more than half of the nurses in his unit won't get the COVID-19 vaccination.

"Most of the reasons why most of my people don't want to get the vaccine are politically motivated."









						A Houston doctor said more than half the nurses in his unit won't get the COVID-19 vaccine for political reasons
					

Dr. Joseph Varon, of Houston's United Memorial Medical Center told NPR that the coronavirus has become a 'political toy.'




					www.businessinsider.com
				




----- General Information









						Some US healthcare workers refusing Covid vaccine out of fear | New Straits Times
					

SOME nurses and emergency-response workers have expressed reluctance to take the new coronavirus vaccine, a reflection of unease that US officials hope to overcome as they ramp up the nationwide immunisation effort.




					www.nst.com.my


----------



## crush (Dec 21, 2020)

OC is breaking records.  No one is out and about and everyone I know is wearing a mask.  Why so many cases?  

*On Sunday, county officials reported another 20,198 tests for the virus had been taken in the last day. Since testing began locally, more than 1.85 million tests have been taken. In Orange County there are now take-at-home saliva tests available to residents, along with in-person testing.

The county has tested an average of about 527 people per 100,000 residents in a week, an all-time high, according to the latest figures available.*


----------



## crush (Dec 21, 2020)

Now we all know why NY is hot mess.  No one is afraid of Rona.  I say let's use this group as a big test in the Big Apple.  Lock them all up in one big cell and see WHO gets IT and see how it spreads with young people.  

*NYC sheriffs bust at least 164 maskless revelers at ‘illegal’ nightclub*


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 21, 2020)

New COVID-19 ‘Mutation’ In UK Prompts Several Countries To Ban Travel
					

Several European countries announced travel bans from the U.K. to combat the spread of a new, more contagious strain of coronavirus just days before Christmas.




					dailycaller.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 21, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> New COVID-19 ‘Mutation’ In UK Prompts Several Countries To Ban Travel
> 
> 
> Several European countries announced travel bans from the U.K. to combat the spread of a new, more contagious strain of coronavirus just days before Christmas.
> ...


it’s already out of the uk. The Netherlands found it too. The uk has better genetic tracing up and running because of the work done on the Oxford vaccine.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Dec 21, 2020)

crush said:


> Now we all know why NY is hot mess.  No one is afraid of Rona.  I say let's use this group as a big test in the Big Apple.  Lock them all up in one big cell and see WHO gets IT and see how it spreads with young people.
> 
> *NYC sheriffs bust at least 164 maskless revelers at ‘illegal’ nightclub*
> View attachment 9757


Looks like a sausage fest.  Is that EOTL in the blonde wig?


----------



## N00B (Dec 21, 2020)

Hundreds Of COVID-19 Cases Tied To San Diego County Tribal Casinos
					

Community outbreak records obtained by KPBS show a total of more than 630 cases in which people diagnosed with the disease had been at casinos within 14 days of their diagnosis.




					www.kpbs.org
				




Not that it should surprise anyone... casinos are an issue. @dad4


----------



## espola (Dec 21, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Fed's are getting the vaccine rollout wrong.  There's no reason Marco Rubio or AOC should be getting the vaccine now.  They should be moving from 75+ and then down every tier every 10 years.....you can prioritize essential workers and harder hit minorities within those tiers if you like but there's no reason a 20 year old police officer should get it before a 65 year old person shut in their house.  Lawyers in 1c is funny....lawyers apparently more valuable than hair dressers.  Downs young adult who are dying at an incredibly high rate should have been prioritized in front of lawyers.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


From realpolitik reasoning the younger citizens, those who have more life to lose, should get the vaccine first.  There is probably a statistical balance between prioritizing those most at risk and those with the most to lose.  Disciples of John Nash can try to find an equilibrium point, if it doesn't drive them crazy.


----------



## N00B (Dec 21, 2020)

Also an interesting read as they’ve finally released places of outbreaks in San Diego.









						Here's Where COVID-19 Outbreaks Have Happened In San Diego County
					

If you’ve gone out at all since the pandemic first struck, you quite likely walked into a place where an outbreak occurred, according to the KPBS analysis of 1,006 outbreak records dating from March through the end of November.




					www.kpbs.org


----------



## watfly (Dec 21, 2020)

N00B said:


> Also an interesting read as they’ve finally released places of outbreaks in San Diego.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting results.  Be curious to know for restaurants the breakdown of indoor vs. outdoor and staff vs customer breakouts.  For November cases (case breakdown was provided only for November, totals were only provided for # of breakouts), Walmart, Target, Costco ranked 1, 5, 7 for source of infections.  Only one restaurant, Olive Garden at #14, was noted in the top 15 for cases in November.

Of course, this study doesn't report on "at home" breakouts since it only accounts for those infected that weren't close contacts.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 21, 2020)

N00B said:


> Hundreds Of COVID-19 Cases Tied To San Diego County Tribal Casinos
> 
> 
> Community outbreak records obtained by KPBS show a total of more than 630 cases in which people diagnosed with the disease had been at casinos within 14 days of their diagnosis.
> ...


So 630 cases out of close to 130k for the San Diego area? *ie about 1/2 of 1% of all cases are tied to casinos. *

Also per the article "To say that a case is linked with a location means that a person was there within two weeks of being diagnosed with COVID-19. It does not mean that the person contracted the virus at the location or infected anyone else there."

So the question one would ask is do they count multiple locations? IE if a person went to Target, then Olive Garden, then the Casino. Do they all get associated with "an outbreak" or do they just pick one?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 21, 2020)

espola said:


> From realpolitik reasoning the younger citizens, those who have more life to lose, should get the vaccine first.  There is probably a statistical balance between prioritizing those most at risk and those with the most to lose.  Disciples of John Nash can try to find an equilibrium point, if it doesn't drive them crazy.


I would agree that we should vaccinate children first if the virus was equally lethal across age groups. However, given that the unadjusted death rate for the group aged 75+ is over 1900x greater than age 0-4 and over 3500x greater than age 5-17, it’s hard to argue with 75+ before children. I assume unadjusted means recorded cases only which makes it likely it’s even considerably higher than the multipliers above. Check my math at the link below.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 21, 2020)

N00B said:


> Also an interesting read as they’ve finally released places of outbreaks in San Diego.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



So, basically wherever people go to work....it's really no surprise Tom Cruise was ranting at his crew......you work, you socialize....it's human nature.


----------



## espola (Dec 21, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I would agree that we should vaccinate children first if the virus was equally lethal across age groups. However, given that the unadjusted death rate for the group aged 75+ is over 1900x greater than age 0-4 and over 3500x greater than age 5-17, it’s hard to argue with 75+ before children. I assume unadjusted means recorded cases only which makes it likely it’s even considerably higher than the multipliers above. Check my math at the link below.
> 
> https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html


There are many factors to consider - expected lifetime without covid, the numbers of each age group, societal/moral considerations, etc.  In any event, I would vote in favor of my adult children getting a spot in line ahead of me.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 21, 2020)

espola said:


> There are many factors to consider - expected lifetime without covid, the numbers of each age group, societal/moral considerations, etc.  In any event, I would vote in favor of my adult children getting a spot in line ahead of me.


Completely understand your position here. I think many (most?) parents will feel the same way. Your adult children will also be at considerably higher risk than children under 18.

Yes, definitely many factors. The only strong opinion I have is to get it to as many people as possible, as soon as possible. Treat it like boarding groups on a plane - keep it rolling. If people are reluctant when the time comes for their group, they can wait and come for the vaccine later.


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 21, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> So 630 cases out of close to 130k for the San Diego area? *ie about 1/2 of 1% of all cases are tied to casinos. *
> 
> Also per the article "To say that a case is linked with a location means that a person was there within two weeks of being diagnosed with COVID-19. It does not mean that the person contracted the virus at the location or infected anyone else there."
> 
> So the question one would ask is do they count multiple locations? IE if a person went to Target, then Olive Garden, then the Casino. Do they all get associated with "an outbreak" or do they just pick one?


The casino relationship does not surprise me. I will never forget the time I was at a Casino in Norcal called "Cache Creek", a dude was sitting in between two slot machines, playing one with his hand and the other with his bare assed foot- repulsive.


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## crush (Dec 22, 2020)

*COVID-19 spurs families to shun nursing homes in a shift that appears long lasting*

A Place for mom?
The pandemic is reshaping the way Americans care for their elderly, prompting family decisions to avoid nursing homes and *keep loved ones in their own homes *for rehabilitation and other care.

Americans have long relied on institutions to care for the frailest seniors. The U.S. has the largest number of nursing-home residents in the world. But families and some *doctors have been reluctant to send patients to such facilities, fearing infection and isolation *in places ravaged by Covid-19, which has caused more than *115,000 deaths linked *to U.S. long-term-care institutions.

War veteran just died all alone in isolation.  He was held captive in war and had PTSD and our country kept him isolated, like a prisoner.  Complete BS!!!  No one could visit him as he died all alone with no family.   A place for dad?  No visiting Angels visited him in his last days of ISOLATION!!!!!


----------



## crush (Dec 22, 2020)

Attention Everyone.  OC is getting hit hard in nursing homes.  I said this before and I will say it again.  My friend wife is a nurse for the elderly.  She say's they are very lonely and isolation.  Most of the patients she see's have no kids or their kids are on the East Coast or they hate their parent.  It's called reality.  These places are not a place for mom, MOO.  They make up so many of the deaths in OC.

*OC Register
Nursing homes* and *assisted living facilities* are getting *hit hard* by the latest surge of Orange County’s COVID-19 cases, with this month’s infection of residents and workers there *accounting for 26% of all such cases during the 10-month-long pandemic. *


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## Grace T. (Dec 22, 2020)

__





						DEFINE_ME
					





					www.ijidonline.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 22, 2020)




----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 22, 2020)

Thankfully our "leaders" in Washington have a plan with their new covid bill.


The 5,593 page budget-busting bill was posted online Monday afternoon, only hours before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a vote would be held.

For some countries, Christmas came early:


$169,739,000 to Vietnam, including $19 million to remediate dioxins (page 1476).
Unspecified funds to “continue support for not-for-profit institutions of higher education in Kabul, Afghanistan that are accessible to both women and men in a coeducational environment” (page 1477).
$198,323,000 to Bangladesh, including $23.5 million to support Burmese refugees and $23.3 million for “democracy programs” (page 1485).
$130,265,000 to Nepal for “development and democracy programs” (page 1485).
Pakistan: $15 million for “democracy programs” and $10 million for “gender programs” (page 1486).
Sri Lanka: Up to $15 million “for the refurbishing of a high endurance cutter,” which is a type of patrol boat (page 1489).
$505,925,000 to Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama to “address key factors that contribute to the migration of unaccompanied, undocumented minors to the United States” (pages 1490-1491).
$461,375,000 to Colombia for programs related to counternarcotics and human rights (pages 1494-1496).
$74.8 million to the “Caribbean Basin Security Initiative” (page 1498).
$33 million “for democracy programs for Venezuela” (page 1498).
Unspecified amount to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Curacao, and Trinidad and Tobago “for assistance for communities in countries supporting or otherwise impacted by refugees from Venezuela” (page 1499).
$132,025,000 “for assistance for Georgia” (page 1499).
$453 million “for assistance for Ukraine” (page 1500).

Also here is a link that shows other important covid related spending in the new bill.









						Thread by @tomselliott on Thread Reader App
					

Thread by @tomselliott: The Covid relief bill lays the groundwork for a “Climate Security Advisory Council” The Covid relief bill also includes $10 million for “gender programs” in Pakistan The Covid relief bill se...…




					threadreaderapp.com


----------



## happy9 (Dec 22, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Thankfully our "leaders" in Washington have a plan with their new covid bill.
> 
> 
> The 5,593 page budget-busting bill was posted online Monday afternoon, only hours before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a vote would be held.
> ...


Ahh, our government bamboozling the masses again.  The appropriations package was going to pass anyway, with our without  the covid bill tacked on.

Lobbyist write these packages.  Obscure consulting groups all over the world will make a killing as they make sure our tax payer dollars are being spent "wisely" in places like Vietnam, Burma, Belize...etc, etc...

Nothing to see here, move it along, here's your $600 (if you qualify for it).


----------



## whatithink (Dec 22, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Thankfully our "leaders" in Washington have a plan with their new covid bill.
> 
> 
> The 5,593 page budget-busting bill was posted online Monday afternoon, only hours before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a vote would be held.
> ...


I take it all those are from the $1.4T omnibus, and to be consistent you'd have to say that $2.3B out of $1.4T is statistically immaterial, at 0.16%, right? So we should ignore and carry on.

Seriously though, joking aside, these bills are always awash with waste. Our "fiscally responsible" politicians (only when they are not in power) are patently utterly incompetent. Alternatively, they are completely competent as they get voted back in at a 97% (or something) rate. They just don't give a shit about how much debt the country is in as *they* are not impacted, and don't ever think they give a shit about "we the people" - that would be funny.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Dec 22, 2020)

whatithink said:


> I take it all those are from the $1.4T omnibus, and to be consistent you'd have to say that $2.3B out of $1.4T is statistically immaterial, at 0.16%, right? So we should ignore and carry on.
> 
> Seriously though, joking aside, these bills are always awash with waste. Our "fiscally responsible" politicians (only when they are not in power) are patently utterly incompetent. Alternatively, they are completely competent as they get voted back in at a 97% (or something) rate. They just don't give a shit about how much debt the country is in as *they* are not impacted, and don't ever think they give a shit about "we the people" - that would be funny.


Con-men and Con-women = Con-gress


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 22, 2020)

Has Restaurants' Role in Spreading COVID-19 Been Exaggerated?
					

The evidence is limited and mixed, but data from New York, Minnesota, and California suggest that restaurants there account for a small share of infections.




					reason.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Dec 22, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Has Restaurants' Role in Spreading COVID-19 Been Exaggerated?
> 
> 
> The evidence is limited and mixed, but data from New York, Minnesota, and California suggest that restaurants there account for a small share of infections.
> ...


Yes.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Dec 22, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Thankfully our "leaders" in Washington have a plan with their new covid bill.
> 
> 
> The 5,593 page budget-busting bill was posted online Monday afternoon, only hours before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a vote would be held.
> ...


Un-fucking-believable.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 22, 2020)

ouch the OC









						Orange County obliterates coronavirus record as surging infections strain state hospitals
					

Orange County reports its highest daily number of coronavirus cases over the weekend.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## crush (Dec 22, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Thankfully our "leaders" in Washington have a plan with their new covid bill.
> 
> 
> The 5,593 page budget-busting bill was posted online Monday afternoon, only hours before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a vote would be held.
> ...


This is insane!!!  Talk about crumbs for the American people.  Why are we giving away the peoples money to other countries?  Color me that or this and call my kettle pink.  I say all that money should be given to the biz owners who are SOL and their workers first.  Do another bill with all that shit some other time.  My gosh, right before are eyes and they tell us to STFCU, wear a dam mask and stay home for the holidays and dont you dare celebrate the Christ and his birthday.  Be happy with the $600 bucks and GTFO they say.  Do they know what's coming to talk that?


----------



## crush (Dec 22, 2020)




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## Bruddah IZ (Dec 22, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> ouch the OC
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Nothing new here.  High cases, low deaths.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 22, 2020)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Nothing new here.  High cases, low deaths.


But what must be realized is that goal posts will move, elected and un-elected peeps will change the narrative, and policy will derive from rhetoric, and not science.

It's a self licking ice cream cone.


----------



## crush (Dec 22, 2020)

happy9 said:


> But what must be realized is that goal posts will move, elected and un-elected peeps will change the narrative, and policy will derive from rhetoric, and not science.
> 
> It's a self licking ice cream cone.


Whatever you do be nice to your kids


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 22, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Weekly Update to predicted deaths in December.
> 
> I expect the average to continue to rise as cases rose the prior week (about 5% IIRC) and cases were rising significantly faster than that the week prior.
> 
> ...


Weekly update - Looks like we are heading to about 80K for December. I was relieved to see that Redfield's projections may have been misrepresented by Forbes due to sloppy reporting. I'm inclined to believe he was.

There are some indications we are leveling off on cases. However, significant portions of the south (including Texas and Florida) and California are still rising. AZ appears to have reached its peak.

Current Daily Average: 2,464
Projection with current average: 76,377

Initial projections
Biden: 250,000 (Daily average: 8,064)
Me: 62,000  (Daily average: 2,000)


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 22, 2020)

Raise your hand if you didn't think this was going to happen.........









						Newsom says California stay-at-home order will likely be extended
					

The Bay Area's order is scheduled to expire Jan. 7, and Gavin Newsom didn't specify...




					www.sfgate.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 22, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Raise your hand if you didn't think this was going to happen.........
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah, Santa Clara should be good to go by Halloween, providing you wear a mask over your mask.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 22, 2020)

whatithink said:


> I take it all those are from the $1.4T omnibus, and to be consistent you'd have to say that $2.3B out of $1.4T is statistically immaterial, at 0.16%, right? So we should ignore and carry on.
> 
> Seriously though, joking aside, these bills are always awash with waste. Our "fiscally responsible" politicians (only when they are not in power) are patently utterly incompetent. Alternatively, they are completely competent as they get voted back in at a 97% (or something) rate. They just don't give a shit about how much debt the country is in as *they* are not impacted, and don't ever think they give a shit about "we the people" - that would be funny.


Think the establishment leadership greatly underestimated the unpopularity of this bill.  It's being nonstop attacked from right and left.  Tucker even attacking L Graham.  Coming on the heels of Congress taking COVID shots for themselves, it's going to further weaken the establishment center...worse for the Rs than the Ds (they have Trump who'll continue to throw firebombs on the center and who is now threatening a veto).


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 23, 2020)

If true, in their attempt to own Trump, looks like they may very well have killed people. and the SM companies were engaged in the censorship of important information......









						Study finds 84% fewer hospitalizations for patients treated with controversial drug hydroxychloroquine
					

A peer-reviewed study measuring the effectiveness of a controversial drug cocktail that includes hydroxychloroquine concluded that the treatment lowered hospitalizations and mortality rates of coronavirus patients.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 23, 2020)

News reports with bad news about 2 mask studies:

1. Surgical masks shouldn't be reused
2. Cloth masks while maybe reducing viral load intakes do not block enough particles to keep people from getting sick









						Wearing a used mask 'can be WORSE than not wearing one at all'
					

A new study found that new three-layer surgical masks can filter out 65% of tiny coronavirus-infected particles but used masks can filter out just 25% because the mask becomes worn out.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				












						Masks NOT enough to stop spread of COVID-19 without social distancing
					

A new study, from New Mexico State University found that cloth masks let in more than 1,000 sneeze droplets, each of which could contain millions of tiny virus particles that could infect someone.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## whatithink (Dec 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Think the establishment leadership greatly underestimated the unpopularity of this bill.  It's being nonstop attacked from right and left.  Tucker even attacking L Graham.  Coming on the heels of Congress taking COVID shots for themselves, it's going to further weaken the establishment center...worse for the Rs than the Ds (they have Trump who'll continue to throw firebombs on the center and who is now threatening a veto).


Its the same crap every time though. There's like $100B in tax give aways to various lobby's in the bill which makes the $2.3B list above a minor afterthought. In other words, there's always something for everyone to hate in these, that's esp. true when you have a divided govt. and compromise is needed to get something passed. 

The politicians know that this will blow over in a week or so. The media will move on, esp. with the confirmation hearing on the 6th for Biden. Already the stories are moving to T's pardons and request for $2K per person.


----------



## whatithink (Dec 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> News reports with bad news about 2 mask studies:
> 
> 1. Surgical masks shouldn't be reused
> 2. Cloth masks while maybe reducing viral load intakes do not block enough particles to keep people from getting sick
> ...


The Daily Mail is otherwise known as the Daily Heil in the UK. I'm just going to leave that there.


----------



## crush (Dec 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> If true, in their attempt to own Trump, looks like they may very well have killed people. and the SM companies were engaged in the censorship of important information......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My neighbor is so scared to go ER because she's afraid the Rona is there.  Has had chest pains but is afraid.  This is BS and needs to stop!!!  OC Register is saying the dam is about to explode and ICU beds are full.  Why would anyone want to go to a hospital right now?


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> News reports with bad news about 2 mask studies:
> 
> 1. Surgical masks shouldn't be reused
> 2. Cloth masks while maybe reducing viral load intakes do not block enough particles to keep people from getting sick
> ...


Prior to masks becoming politicized....

The CDC has/had a page talking about the effectiveness of masks vs the flu. 

They looked at numerous studies. What did the studies find?

That masks were ineffective at preventing the spread of the flu. 

Where were the studies done? 

In hospital settings. By people (doctors/nurses) who knew how to properly wear masks. 

We know covid is more contagious vs the flu. And we know that previous studies showed that masks did not prevent the spread of the flu.

So why do we now suddenly believe that masks used by the population at large will stop or even slow the spread of covid?

Further we are seeing high mask compliance today and yet numbers of positive tests have risen dramatically. 

That should lead one back to the realization that the original studies cited by the CDC regarding masks and flu were/are correct.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 23, 2020)




----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Dec 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


>


It is a shame most of our state elected officials and our judges are too corrupt to do what is right for kids, business, etc.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 23, 2020)

happy9 said:


> But what must be realized is that goal posts will move, elected and un-elected peeps will change the narrative, and policy will derive from rhetoric, and not science.
> 
> It's a self licking ice cream cone.


Like when everyone kept saying there is going to be a spike in Dec, we need to lock down to save lives, yet did NOTHING to prepare for the spike.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 23, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> Like when everyone kept saying there is going to be a spike in Dec, we need to lock down to save lives, yet did NOTHING to prepare for the spike.


It's really hard to pick up the phone and ask the bad orange man for help, hard.  Put the bad orange man aside for now, plenty of federal resources available.  The hard question to answer is the amount of available staff to cover additional surge requirements.  Anyone can put up a tent, throw in some beds, connect some power, but can they find the staff?  Outside of parking a staffed Hospital Ship in long beach harbor, I don't know where the staff will come from.  

But yea, prepare?  why? it's easier to blame you and impose more restrictions.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 23, 2020)

happy9 said:


> It's really hard to pick up the phone and ask the bad orange man for help, hard.  Put the bad orange man aside for now, plenty of federal resources available.  The hard question to answer is the amount of available staff to cover additional surge requirements.  Anyone can put up a tent, throw in some beds, connect some power, but can they find the staff?  Outside of parking a staffed Hospital Ship in long beach harbor, I don't know where the staff will come from.
> 
> But yea, prepare?  why? it's easier to blame you and impose more restrictions.


Had 5 months to work on that plan.  Maybe National Guard or Reserves could lend a hand.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 23, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> Had 5 months to work on that plan.  Maybe National Guard or Reserves could lend a hand.


No doubt they've had time.  Now they've run out of time.  If you are a physician in the guard and reserve, you are likely busy in your full time job and not available to staff a field hospital or do your time on a hospital ship.  

The reality in CA is that the medical infrastructure is inadequate to handle a real deal pandemic.  The bed to people ratio is woefully lacking, and has been so for some time.  That doesn't absolve them of their requirement to plan.  I guess it highlights the inadequacies of CA emergency planners and the lack of managing budgets going back decades.  It's crazy to think that* California has one-third the number of beds per capita as Poland*. 









						Surging Virus Exposes California’s Weak Spot: A Lack of Hospital Beds and Staff
					

Many of the state’s hospitals have maintained lower numbers of beds in part to limit the length of patient stays and lower costs. But that approach is now being tested.




					www.nytimes.com
				



.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 23, 2020)

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2
					

This systematic review and meta-analysis examines evidence for household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), disaggregated by several covariates, and compares it with other coronaviruses




					jamanetwork.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 23, 2020)

Bad news for schools if this is what they are thinking.  We need to start with the assumption that kids (at least 12 and under) probably won't be vaccinated until fall 2021 (12-15 maybe in the summer....16-18 spring)....and then we don't know what the vaccine mandate looks like:

1. It assumes Congress will authorize another huge COVID relief bill.  Unlikely, given the s show with the current one, even if the Ds are able to win both Georgia Senate seats.
2. By the time it deploys, we are well into vaccinating most of the population
3. It would set a similar standard of care for youth sports which is troublesome
4. They seem to be leaning towards rapid tests, and only once a week, to save money which means it's not enough to even prevent an outbreak (only to shut down things once one detected, even if by false positives).
5. It means starts and stops in schooling are likely to continue for the foreseable future until COVID "disappears".
6. They are doubling down on the idea we need to get to zero transmission for things to return to normal

If implemented, we are in for a bumpy ride as parents because it's not going to be zero for a while, if ever.  Kid's education would be disrupted for at least another year or so....if the thing mutates so the vaccine doesn't stop it as well, or if the vaccine does not stop transmission or has only a limited duration, never.









						Biden team's multibillion-dollar school testing plan takes shape
					

The proposal under consideration calls for the federal government to cover the cost of providing tests to K-12 schools throughout the country.




					www.politico.com


----------



## happy9 (Dec 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Bad news for schools if this is what they are thinking.  We need to start with the assumption that kids (at least 12 and under) probably won't be vaccinated until fall 2021 (12-15 maybe in the summer....16-18 spring)....and then we don't know what the vaccine mandate looks like:
> 
> 1. It assumes Congress will authorize another huge COVID relief bill.  Unlikely, given the s show with the current one, even if the Ds are able to win both Georgia Senate seats.
> 2. By the time it deploys, we are well into vaccinating most of the population
> ...


Ha, as you read through the article, it becomes clear no one is really planning anything beyond the surface and that many people are going to make a metric sh!t ton of money from a testing rollout.  I'm a big fan of capitalism but have enough experience to know that altruism isn't a gene normally found in the world of pharma. I also know that average capacity humans at the state of local level will fall short when planning anything complex

Interesting article from Europe, where it seems they've been able to separate kid education from politics and have developed an education specific strategy to keep kids in school.  I don't think the US has the desire to keep the two separated and their is no GANAS to pursue a strategy that would make school districts and local public health officials actually have to do anything.  Just my take though.


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Dec 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Bad news for schools if this is what they are thinking.  We need to start with the assumption that kids (at least 12 and under) probably won't be vaccinated until fall 2021 (12-15 maybe in the summer....16-18 spring)....and then we don't know what the vaccine mandate looks like:
> 
> 1. It assumes Congress will authorize another huge COVID relief bill.  Unlikely, given the s show with the current one, even if the Ds are able to win both Georgia Senate seats.
> 2. By the time it deploys, we are well into vaccinating most of the population
> ...


Once teachers have access to the vaccine there should not be anymore excuses for not opening and then going back to work full time. All this testing would be a waste of money. Until we have true leaders stand up to the unions and tell them to knock it off, there will be demand after demand. My child is not taking the vaccine when it is available for kids. If mandatory vaccinations becomes their next demand my child will never go back to public school. I am not an antivaxer and will take it myself, just see no reason to have my child take it for a virus that will not seriously harm them.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 23, 2020)

happy9 said:


> Ha, as you read through the article, it becomes clear no one is really planning anything beyond the surface and that many people are going to make a metric sh!t ton of money from a testing rollout.  I'm a big fan of capitalism but have enough experience to know that altruism isn't a gene normally found in the world of pharma. I also know that average capacity humans at the state of local level will fall short when planning anything complex
> 
> Interesting article from Europe, where it seems they've been able to separate kid education from politics and have developed an education specific strategy to keep kids in school.  I don't think the US has the desire to keep the two separated and their is no GANAS to pursue a strategy that would make school districts and local public health officials actually have to do anything.  Just my take though.


Forgot to add the article - oops.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/europe-schools-covid-open/2020/12/01/4480a5c8-2e61-11eb-9dd6-2d0179981719_story.html


----------



## happy9 (Dec 23, 2020)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> *Once teachers have access to the vaccine there should not be anymore excuses for not opening and then going back to work full time. All this testing would be a waste of money.* Until we have true leaders stand up to the unions and tell them to knock it off, there will be demand after demand. My child is not taking the vaccine when it is available for kids. If mandatory vaccinations becomes their next demand my child will never go back to public school. I am not an antivaxer and will take it myself, just see no reason to have my child take it for a virus that will not seriously harm them.


I didn't want to open up the teacher's union can of worms, but I agree in principle.  Let's see what happens when obstacles are removed.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 23, 2020)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> I am not an antivaxer and will take it myself, just see no reason to have my child take it for a virus that will not seriously harm them.


People under 24 yrs of age have ZERO real risk related to the covid.

Some numbers to think about.

About 60% of ALL deaths come from those 75 and older.

The number of people over 75 is approx. 22.5 million

We have a population of 328 million.

So 60% of all deaths come from a population group that makes up a bit less than 7% of the total population.

80% of all deaths are from people 65 and older. According the CENSUS the average person retires (65 for men and 63 for women).

That might make one wonder a few things.

Why shut down so many businesses? It is not like you have the at risk categories working there correct?

Why aren't schools open. Kids have zero risk. The average age of your HS teacher is 43. If you look at CDC stats that age group has very little real risk. 35-44 yr olds have experienced less than 2% of all deaths.

If you look at all ages under 54 the percentage of deaths is just 7.5% of the total deaths.

Our blanket approach, shut biz, schools, etc is not ideal.

Vaccinate the 22.5 million people over 75 and you eliminate 60% of all the deaths.

Vaccinate the 48 million people over that age of 65 and you eliminate 80% of all deaths.

Then vaccinate or at the same time the younger aged individuals who have serious health issues. That takes care of the cause of most of the deaths at the younger ages.

And that should be a wrap on this thing.

So we don't for instance need 300 million doses for the US. You need 48 million plus (whatever is needed to vax the youngers with health issues) to take care of the group that is actually at risk.

Remember they are claiming these vaccines are mid 90% effective.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 23, 2020)

Further...if gov acts now and vaccinates that 65 and over group. That takes care of 80% of all the deaths. 

More importantly once you do that, there is little reason/logic to continue shutdowns, masks, limit schooling, etc. 

Unfortunately they (the gov) won't focus on that at risk group all at once. I am sure the doses will be spread out amongst different age groups, which will have the affect of actually prolonging this thing longer. The thing being restrictions on biz, schooling, masks, etc.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 23, 2020)

And last number to think about. 

In the US about 550 people under the age of 24 have died due to covid. 

Split equally amongst the 50 states....11 per state. Yes I know it isn't split equally. 

So CA has shut down sports, elementary, middle, hs and colleges based on 11 deaths. 

Does that sound reasonable? Good policy?

CA still shows ZERO deaths of under 17 by the way.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 23, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Further...if gov acts now and vaccinates that 65 and over group. That takes care of 80% of all the deaths.
> 
> More importantly once you do that, there is little reason/logic to continue shutdowns, masks, limit schooling, etc.
> 
> Unfortunately they (the gov) won't focus on that at risk group all at once. I am sure the doses will be spread out amongst different age groups, which will have the affect of actually prolonging this thing longer. The thing being restrictions on biz, schooling, masks, etc.


This is why the Florida vaccination plan (65+ before essential workers) makes so much more sense in comparison to either the federal or most blue state plans.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 23, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This is why the Florida vaccination plan (65+ before essential workers) makes so much more sense in comparison to either the federal or most blue state plans.


It would be interesting to see what the other states with a high geriatric population do - do they follow Florida's lead?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Dec 23, 2020)

happy9 said:


> It would be interesting to see what the other states with a high geriatric population do - do they follow Florida's lead?


Well, if you look at California, you have 74.1% of the deaths coming from 10.3% of the cases.  Why would t you focus the vaccinations on that portion of the population first?


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 23, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> Well, if you look at California, you have 74.1% of the deaths coming from 10.3% of the cases.  Why would t you focus the vaccinations on that portion of the population first?











						Why I'm Losing Trust in the Institutions
					

Yascha Mounk: The CDC came scarily close to adopting a plan that would have killed thousands of Americans.




					www.persuasion.community


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 24, 2020)

Fauci today saying we need 90% to get herd immunity. More interesting he says he keeps moving the goalpost in part because the science evolves (I’m not aware of anything new of the herd immunity front in months) and in part because he lied. Seriously all these people (Fauci, Redfield, Ferguson, even now Birx) are really awful at the messaging portion of their jobs. CDC saying everyone needs to get vaccinated before masks, distancing etc can be relaxed.  It’s like we are playing a huge game of calvinball.

Meanwhile at my uncles old hospital a radiologist colleague has gotten the vaccine.  Surprised my father and uncle when they heard.  While the nurses and technicians that scan the patients in the er are considered front line, the radiologists aren’t. Has them wondering if it was just special treatment or if some of the frontlines have declined the vaccine (freeing up others to receive). They (because of my fathers allergy problem) have also been trying to get the side effects reports on those that have been vaccinated so far and the information isn’t out there easily...only a few states have published so far.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 24, 2020)

What a nightmare.......









						United Airlines Passengers Who Gave Aid to Dying Man With COVID Were Given $75 Flight Voucher
					

It's been confirmed that a man who died last week in some respiratory or cardiac distress on board a California-bound United flight out of Orlando was COVID-positive. And now passengers who helped administer medical aid are wondering why they had to find out from the news media.




					sfist.com


----------



## happy9 (Dec 24, 2020)

Kicker4Life said:


> Well, if you look at California, you have 74.1% of the deaths coming from 10.3% of the cases.  Why would t you focus the vaccinations on that portion of the population first?


Now you sound like someone sitting in the cheap seats of a big time meeting, asking or proposing something sensical and getting the deer in the headlight look.  Recommend something practical?  nothing to see here, move it along.


----------



## N00B (Dec 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci today saying we need 90% to get herd immunity. More interesting he says he keeps moving the goalpost in part because the science evolves (I’m not aware of anything new of the herd immunity front in months) and in part because he lied. Seriously all these people (Fauci, Redfield, Ferguson, even now Birx) are really awful at the messaging portion of their jobs. CDC saying everyone needs to get vaccinated before masks, distancing etc can be relaxed.  It’s like we are playing a huge game of calvinball.
> 
> Meanwhile at my uncles old hospital a radiologist colleague has gotten the vaccine.  Surprised my father and uncle when they heard.  While the nurses and technicians that scan the patients in the er are considered front line, the radiologists aren’t. Has them wondering if it was just special treatment or if some of the frontlines have declined the vaccine (freeing up others to receive). They (because of my fathers allergy problem) have also been trying to get the side effects reports on those that have been vaccinated so far and the information isn’t out there easily...only a few states have published so far.


Have a friend in NJ who got the vaccine as she works healthcare.  Surprised me as she’s in finance for a hospital group (late 30’s with no medical conditions/risk factors).

‘front line’ seems to be very loosely defined.


----------



## crush (Dec 24, 2020)

MSNBC rolled out a doom and gloom doc Thursday morning who warned Americans not to get overly optimistic about a Covid vaccine because we are in for a “decades-long battle.”  
Dr. William Haseltine promoted his books on Covid19.  

I had a soccer doc tell me if my dd goes and plays high school soccer that it's the worse decision I could allow her to do and it's doom & gloom for her dream.


----------



## crush (Dec 24, 2020)

Dr F has been holding back everyone.  The game of guesstimates with ourlives.  This guy just turned 80 and is making huge decisions for our future and our kids.

In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had *slowly but deliberately *been moving the* goal posts.* He is doing so, he said, partly based on *new science*, and* partly* on his *gut feeling* that the *country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.*  Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to *90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt* — almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak. Dr. Fauci said that weeks ago, he had *hesitated* to publicly raise his estimate because many *Americans seemed hesitant about vaccines*, which they would need to accept almost universally in order for the country to achieve herd immunity. 
Now that some *polls* are showing that many more Americans are ready, even eager, for vaccines, *he said he felt he could deliver the tough message* that the *return to normal might take longer than anticipated.

“When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent,” Dr. Fauci said. “Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, ‘I can nudge this up a bit,’ so I went to 80, 85.”*

This guy is a Politian. He goes by the polls.  Most of the docs in soccer were Politians as well and not real docs


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Dec 24, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> If true, in their attempt to own Trump, looks like they may very well have killed people. and the SM companies were engaged in the censorship of important information......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The liberal media made it controversial.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 24, 2020)

So I'm on our Christmas Even church service on zoom.  2 families have grandparents over to their house, indoors.  Wearing masks.  I have no problem with people making the choice how they want to worship or how they want to conduct their family relations.   I respect my own parent's decision to not have anything to do with us this holiday.  But this @dad4 is why I think honest advice about masks is important.  The 2 families think they are "probably safe" because no one is symptomatic and they are all wearing masks.  They think the masks are protecting them despite being together indoors 3+ hours and not eating together (one family ate earlier masks off, the other in different rooms).   If they were told the masks in that situation probably don't do anything, maybe they make the same choice.  Maybe they decide its not the best idea to get together.  But they think the masks are protecting them "because that's what the science says and we believe the scientists" and therefore aren't making informed decisions about what's happening.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 24, 2020)

All I have to say now is Merry Xmas!

Back to disagreeing with some of you in 36 hours or so.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 24, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> All I have to say now is Merry Xmas!
> 
> Back to disagreeing with some of you in 36 hours or so.


Ha! Merry Christmas, Hound!


----------



## crush (Dec 25, 2020)

Vitamin D, other everyday vitamins could counter coronavirus effects: report
*Studies reveal nine out of 10 COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented *if people had adequate Vitamin D levels

How do we get vitamin D? *Our body creates vitamin D from direct sunlight* on our skin when we're *outdoors*. From about late March/early April to the end of September, most people should be able to get all the vitamin D we need from sunlight.  Get outside to the Light so you can breath, get sunlight ((Vitamin D)) and save your life.  Time to kick some ass soon.  What a bunch of wimps using people to stay ahead and in charge.  Cheaters and Liars suck!!!


----------



## crush (Dec 25, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> All I have to say now is Merry Xmas!
> 
> Back to disagreeing with some of you in 36 hours or so.


I;m addicted to this place and still have some unfinished business to take care of.  A little bet I have with a couple dudes.  See you tomorrow hound dog.  Merry Christmas to you, your wife and your goat.  Love you man!!!


----------



## crush (Dec 25, 2020)

Ossoff, Warnock *Each* Raised Over *$100 Million In Two Months*, Shattering *Fundraising Records.*

And I thought Jerry Lewis was good.


----------



## crush (Dec 27, 2020)

*OC Fear Tracker Update*​



Also, this just in. New strain fear tactics from the UK.  Heads up to all you.  It's going to get a lot worse before it get's better.  Stay safe and help those in need.  If you help with a good heart, I promise you 100% rich blessings will be rewarded to you.  It comes down to choice.

In justifying the move to a new national lockdown, the leaders of the UK briefly enjoyed the political fortune of a headline-grabbing finding: *a new strain of Covid-19, possibly more virulent than the old.*

This strain, despite the paucity of scientific data, has been described as *“up to 70 per cent more transmissible than the old variant,”* and it is this figure which has gripped the media and policymakers. *The tendency towards catastrophism is palpable.*


----------



## crush (Dec 27, 2020)

Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday that Americans *could start thinking* about a return to “some form of normality” by the fall.  There you go folks.  All my insiders say the same thing.  Mask, Vaccine no sports until Fall in socal.

Fauci told Bash that while the two vaccines — one from Moderna and the other from Pfizer — were being administered based on risk first, the general population could see widespread vaccination in the summer months.

“Well, if you look at the logistics of it, Dana, right now, we are going through the priority groups,” Fauci explained, noting that the highest priorities included health care workers — who have to stay healthy in order to continue to provide care for patients — and the elderly or those who have underlying medical conditions.

“*Once you get there, what I call open season *((in my yellow page day, open season met we could go into anyone else sales territory and steal the sale)), namely when *anybody who is anybody*, you don’t have to be a priority person, *should get vaccinated *((this is him hitting us soft because were like little kids and can;t handle the real truth.  Next year, he will bitch slap us the real truth)). I think we are going to get there probably end of March, beginning of April,” Fauci continued, adding that the United States could reach the point where approximately *85% of the population was vaccinated by mid to late summer *((what about the 15% WHO are super healthy and are a no way for bat virus shot))

“*I hope by the time we get to the fal*l, we will reach that critical percentage of people that we can really start thinking about and return to some form of normality,” he concluded.

Fauci had previously suggested late June ((moved goal post again)) as the time that people could begin *going about their business *((if they even have a business left in the fall)) without wearing face coverings, telling CNN’s Chris


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 27, 2020)

If true, has profound implications:

-we know most transmissions take place in the home....means transmission from home to home taking place because people are aholes and going outside despite not feeling well.
-Another explanation why masks aren't doing much.  Perhaps symptomatic people are going out thinking masks protect people.
-It would also explain why partial lockdowns don't work....the sick can still go out....only way you keep the sick indoors isolated is by shutting down the highways.









						Asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 didn’t occur at all, study of 10 million finds - LifeSite
					

Only 300 asymptomatic cases in the study of nearly 10 million were discovered, and none of those tested positive for COVID-19.




					www.lifesitenews.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 27, 2020)

My father has the same allergy.....he'll be crushed.......









						Boston doctor suffers first known serious reaction to Moderna coronavirus vaccine
					

A Boston doctor has become the first known person to suffer a serious allergic reaction to the Moderna coronavirus vaccine.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com


----------



## crush (Dec 27, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> My father has the same allergy.....he'll be crushed.......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'll take my chances by eating healthy


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 27, 2020)

I'll give Biden credit, he doesn't shy away from bold predictions despite a huge miss for December (predicting 250K deaths). If we took the average of Trump's prediction and Biden's we'd have something closer to the actual - still over, but much closer. I've come to the conclusion that epidemiologists' predictions are equivalent to that of shy weather forecasters. They are reluctant to say anything and qualify everything they do say - "it *might* actually get worse".

"One thing I promise you about my leadership during this crisis: I'm going to tell it to you straight. I'm going to tell you the truth. And here's the simple truth: Our darkest days in the battle against Covid are ahead of us, not behind us," Biden, who has received a coronavirus vaccine, said in remarks at the time.

<From Fauci>
"We are really at a very critical point. ... So I share the concern of President-elect Biden that as we get into the next few weeks, it might actually get worse."









						Fauci shares Biden's concern that 'darkest days' may be ahead in Covid-19 fight
					

Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday expressed concern that the worst may still come in America's battle against Covid-19, agreeing with President-elect Joe Biden's recent assessment that the "darkest days" in fighting the virus lie ahead.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## crush (Dec 27, 2020)

Gerald Rivera the lawyer is all worked and super afraid of something.  I think t can speak for himself bro and he has nothing but beautiful things to say about his Military Prosecutor.  She is one of the few who can trial a case in a  tribunal court.  No one wants to get a summands from her, let me tell you.  These courts are much different then the old city court house.   

"Sidney Powell is a* pathetic lawyer* who among others is *working to destroy the legacy of *
@realDonaldTrump"  GR-


----------



## crush (Dec 27, 2020)

This just in from Fox:
Nashville bombing suspect identified, acted as *'lone wolf'* and is believed to have died in explosion


That *Loan Wolf* probably had a debt to pay and he just paid it back.  Some crazy* lonely wolf *he must have been 

Then, I read that a *copy cat* on some freeway with a loud speaker and another* copy cat* calling to blow up the Empire State Building is trying to copy the lone wolf.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 27, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> "One thing I promise you about my leadership during this crisis: I'm going to tell it to you straight. I'm going to tell you the truth. And here's the simple truth: Our darkest days in the battle against Covid are ahead of us, not behind us," Biden, who has received a coronavirus vaccine, said in remarks at the time.


He needs for it to be true at least into the first weeks of February so he can claim credit for the turnaround as numbers begin to drop from vaccination.  It will be because his brave and bold national mask request worked.  

A more cynical person than I might say maybe thats why the CDC and blue states like California adopted the vaccination plans that they did.


----------



## crush (Dec 28, 2020)

Eat healthy, Eat Healthy is the best way to be safe and also get lot's of vitamins, espcially the D one that you get outside.  This wonderful nurse should be taken care of for life.  I will be watching her story.  I pray for her and her family.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Dec 28, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> He needs for it to be true at least into the first weeks of February so he can claim credit for the turnaround as numbers begin to drop from vaccination.  It will be because his brave and bold national mask request worked.
> 
> A more cynical person than I might say maybe thats why the CDC and blue states like California adopted the vaccination plans that they did.


Most numbers are headed down anyway.  You're right though.  Mask wearing has frequently been mandated when numbers were already down.  And the vaccine will be applauded as saving the human race when the numbers were already down and decreasing.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 28, 2020)

It's a slow start.

But after the first week of vaccine distribution and with only nine days left to meet their self-imposed deadline, Operation Warp Speed is on track to fall well short of 20 million shots in arms. One count, from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, shows about 9.5 million doses have been distributed as of Saturday morning and about 1.9 million have been vaccinated -- not even close to the 20 million goal Warp Speed originally set.









						US officials promised 20 million vaccinated against coronavirus by the end of the year. It's going slower than that
					

While the coronavirus pandemic continued to surge throughout the summer and fall, federal government officials repeatedly offered a ray of hope: enough vaccine doses to vaccinate 20 million Americans by the end of December.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Dec 28, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's a slow start.
> 
> But after the first week of vaccine distribution and with only nine days left to meet their self-imposed deadline, Operation Warp Speed is on track to fall well short of 20 million shots in arms. One count, from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, shows about 9.5 million doses have been distributed as of Saturday morning and about 1.9 million have been vaccinated -- not even close to the 20 million goal Warp Speed originally set.
> 
> ...


9.5 million doses is nearly 10x what is required for vaccinating the 967,381 folks at LTC facilities.  38 percent of the Nation's COVID deaths are coming from LTC's.  If your parents are at an LTC and haven't been vaccinated yet do you really care about the government missing the 20 million dose deadline when distribution is the main issue?


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 28, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> If true, has profound implications:
> 
> -we know most transmissions take place in the home....means transmission from home to home taking place because people are aholes and going outside despite not feeling well.
> -Another explanation why masks aren't doing much.  Perhaps symptomatic people are going out thinking masks protect people.
> ...


Remember...Asymptomatic transmission has been the underlying justification of lockdowns enforced all across the world. 

So that study is very interesting related to that.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 28, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's a slow start.
> 
> But after the first week of vaccine distribution and with only nine days left to meet their self-imposed deadline, Operation Warp Speed is on track to fall well short of 20 million shots in arms. One count, from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, shows about 9.5 million doses have been distributed as of Saturday morning and about 1.9 million have been vaccinated -- not even close to the 20 million goal Warp Speed originally set.
> 
> ...





Desert Hound said:


> Remember...Asymptomatic transmission has been the underlying justification of lockdowns enforced all across the world.
> 
> So that study is very interesting related to that.


University of Florida study pretty clear...asymptomatic transmission is either very rare or happening not at all.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Dec 28, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> University of Florida study pretty clear...asymptomatic transmission is either very rare or happening not at all.


Shocking isn't it?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Dec 28, 2020)

crush said:


> MSNBC rolled out a doom and gloom doc Thursday morning who warned Americans not to get overly optimistic about a Covid vaccine because we are in for a “decades-long battle.”
> Dr. William Haseltine promoted his books on Covid19.
> 
> I had a soccer doc tell me if my dd goes and plays high school soccer that it's the worse decision I could allow her to do and it's doom & gloom for her dream.


MSNBC is low level information with a lot of Drama.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Dec 28, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci today saying we need 90% to get herd immunity.


Kinda like Atlas said months ago.


----------



## crush (Dec 28, 2020)




----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 28, 2020)

BREAKING: Texas issues 'stay at home' order for entire state of California • Genesius Times
					

AUSTIN—Amid the current rampant pandemic, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has issued an urgent “stay at...




					genesiustimes.com


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Dec 28, 2020)

crush said:


>


Yep, an incredible danger.  Securing our borders like every country on the planet, getting us out of environmental deals that do nothing but bleed this country of money, prioritize our benefit when it comes to trade deals and remind law abiding citizens that our rights, and the rights of police officers putting their lives on the line everyday, are more important than criminals that choose to violate innocent Americans.

I'd like another plate of "danger", please.


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 28, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> BREAKING: Texas issues 'stay at home' order for entire state of California • Genesius Times
> 
> 
> AUSTIN—Amid the current rampant pandemic, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has issued an urgent “stay at...
> ...


Took me a few paragraphs to realize this was satire


----------



## crush (Dec 28, 2020)

Glitterhater said:


> Took me a few paragraphs to realize this was *satire*


Now you understand me better.  Take EVERYTHING I say here with grain of sale


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 28, 2020)

Scott m Shurson said:


> Yep, an incredible danger.  Securing our borders like every country on the planet, getting us out of environmental deals that do nothing but bleed this country of money, prioritize our benefit when it comes to trade deals and remind law abiding citizens that our rights, and the rights of police officers putting their lives on the line everyday, are more important than criminals that choose to violate innocent Americans.
> 
> I'd like another plate of "danger", please.


Do you believe everything trump tells you to?


----------



## happy9 (Dec 28, 2020)

Scott m Shurson said:


> Yep, an incredible danger.  Securing our borders like every country on the planet, getting us out of environmental deals that do nothing but bleed this country of money, prioritize our benefit when it comes to trade deals and remind law abiding citizens that our rights, and the rights of police officers putting their lives on the line everyday, are more important than criminals that choose to violate innocent Americans.
> 
> I'd like another plate of "danger", please.


Let's not forget how dangerous it is to not engage in silly escapades in the middle east.  God forbid we stop spending tax payer dollars in those lovely destination locations.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Dec 28, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Do you believe everything trump tells you to?


Please.  Look up the climate accord for yourself.  If you can't see that's lighting money on fire, I can't help you.  What's the point of pouring all that money into an agreement the worst offenders don't participate in?

And I just watched a nice documentary about MS-13 and the other influx of gangs coming to the states.  Lovely of AOC and company to desire the abolishment of ICE.  Yeah, open borders and no border patrol.  What tremendous leadership that dipshit brought our country.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Dec 28, 2020)

happy9 said:


> Let's not forget how dangerous it is to not engage in silly escapades in the middle east.  God forbid we stop spending tax payer dollars in those lovely destination locations.


Yep.  The democrats weren't very happy when Trump talked about bringing soldiers home.  They bitched about everything he ever said or did.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 28, 2020)

Scott m Shurson said:


> Yep.  The democrats weren't very happy when Trump talked about bringing soldiers home.  They bitched about everything he ever said or did.


Both sides aren't  happy.  Plenty of contractor dollars left on the table as the footprint continue to shrink and mission profile changes.  Not as many bodies to feed, schools to build (that never get used), or broken/blown up vehicles to fix.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 29, 2020)

We're #1









						California now has the worst COVID-19 spread in US
					

California is posting the country's worst COVID-19 numbers despite a new stay-at-home...




					www.sfgate.com


----------



## crush (Dec 29, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> We're #1
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I know it's not coming from our place.  Were following all the rules.  My dd the other day said she has to self stay home until her friends gets test.  No birthday party for #17.  I told her when she turns 18 we will have a real bday party.  She stays in her room and I now have a mask law in my crib.  My son is now going out to brave the Rona so we stay safe at home.  I have hills to hike and a private balcony looking at mother nature.  It's time to be a bear in the winter and stay safe in my cave.   I sneak out only to exercise.  I will do this until it's safe and the Dark Winter is over and Spring comes.  Oh how I long for thee Spring   Thank you to all essential workers risking their lives for us.  Thank you and I mean that.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 29, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> We're #1
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And CA is one of the states that has had the strictest restrictions in place during the entire time. 

At some point can we say lockdowns and masks do not stop the spread? 

You could have done a FL. Schools in session and kids learning, businesses open, sports happening, people doing their thing.

Or continue to do the CA thing. Schools shut (in LA there is a 40% absentee rate for their online classes FYI), no sports, biz getting hammered, financial ruin, etc. And for what? A policy that hasn't done anything to stop the spread of the virus. 

FL has been open. CA been shut. 

So how effective has the shutdowns been in stopping the spread? Lets go to the numbers. 

CA has 55,668 cases per million
FL has 59,605 cases per million. 

Turns out CA and the lockdowns has about as many cases per million as FL. @dad4 and others have been telling us the way to stop the spread is to lock down, mask up, etc. The numbers tell us that policy doesn't actually work. 

Gov policy is not going to stop the spread of the virus. Gov policy however is very effective at hurting education, killing off biz, etc.


----------



## crush (Dec 29, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> And CA is one of the states that has had the strictest restrictions in place during the entire time.
> 
> At some point can we say lockdowns and masks do not stop the spread?
> 
> ...


I was wondering where you been Hound.  I like the work and numbers dont lie, ever!!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 29, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> And CA is one of the states that has had the strictest restrictions in place during the entire time.
> 
> At some point can we say lockdowns and masks do not stop the spread?
> 
> ...


The real bad news is that the experts STILL don't seem to have changed their thinking.  This article has 3 important lines of thought from the WHO:

1. Even with the vaccines, the Rona is never going away.   They seem to think we never reach herd immunity (just the death rate gets lower).  It will be endemic like the flu, which means people will die from it from years to come (and the idea we could ever become "safe" has always been an illusion).
2. This was not the "big one"....in which case why did we do what we did wrecking the global economy?
3. That we've evolved to the point that we can "get our act together" and actually control these things....when we've haven't for the span of human history.









						WHO warns Covid-19 pandemic is 'not necessarily the big one'
					

Experts tell end of year media briefing that virus is likely to become endemic and the world will have to learn to live with it




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 29, 2020)

They don't seem to have thought out distribution plans very much.......









						The big worry hanging over vaccination: Getting people to the clinics
					

Distrust isn't the only barrier to a successful vaccination campaign.




					www.politico.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 29, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> The real bad news is that the experts STILL don't seem to have changed their thinking.  This article has 3 important lines of thought from the WHO:
> 
> 1. Even with the vaccines, the Rona is never going away.   They seem to think we never reach herd immunity (just the death rate gets lower).  It will be endemic like the flu, which means people will die from it from years to come (and the idea we could ever become "safe" has always been an illusion).
> 2. This was not the "big one"....in which case why did we do what we did wrecking the global economy?
> ...


The virus isn't going away. 

So the question is...with a vaccine what will be the response of the government? 

Still push masks? Still push social distancing? 

It seems many out there are thinking in that direction.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 29, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> They don't seem to have thought out distribution plans very much.......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I chuckled while reading this article.  It's amusing and sad at the same time.  NGOs all over the world plan and execute immunization programs.  They do so with shoe string budgets, limited staff, and under very austere conditions.  Many times they operate under a security threat.  Pick any country in central Africa.

Now, our state gubments can't even plan how to immunize the "hard to get to" people?  Maybe they should hire some people.  The state of california increased their public health spending by $1.7B.  $57M resides in the " infectious disease prevention and control efforts " category.

2 things here, our media sucks, and our government employees are worthless when it comes to actually doing their jobs.  But they will whine about it and many will help them whine.  

Give some seed money to some small distribution companies and have them partner with traveling nurse agencies.  And yes, I know it's more complex than this but you get my drift.  We are paying a ton of taxes to support incompetence.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 29, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> The virus isn't going away.
> 
> So the question is...with a vaccine what will be the response of the government?
> 
> ...


Will schools continue to shut down the next 3 years if there's even 1 case in the classroom and the students vaccinated?  Will we still be requiring non stop testing for schools and athletics?


----------



## crush (Dec 29, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Will schools continue to shut down the next 3 years if there's even 1 case in the classroom and the students vaccinated?  Will we still be requiring non stop testing for schools and athletics?


My dd has had two friends whose parents have both tested for Rona in last two weeks.  My dd is now at home for good because everyone is getting the Rona.  So why bother trying to go out.  She had the most awesome party planned for #17 Grace.  She has had to play soccer every year during her birthdays and this was the one where we said, "no soccer."  We just didnt know we would be on lock down too.  A friend suggested a Happy Birthday Zoom Party and gifts from Amazon and she is 100%b a no


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 29, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Will schools continue to shut down the next 3 years if there's even 1 case in the classroom and the students vaccinated?  Will we still be requiring non stop testing for schools and athletics?


That is actually a concern of mine. Combine the fear of the rona with the normal flu and colds people get, and watch some of the stupid policies that get implemented in our public school systems.


----------



## crush (Dec 29, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> That is actually a concern of mine. Combine the fear of the rona with the normal flu and colds people get, and watch some of the stupid policies that get implemented in our public school systems.


Were down for a long fu*king Winter Hound.  Forget all my darkness & light sh*t.  This is as real as it get bro.  Stay safe bro.  There is no way things will get better.  Dr F just went on CNN and rebuked California for doing a horrible job.  He's very disappointed.  Let's EVERYONE go home and not leave so we can kill this bat virus bastard once and for all.


----------



## happy9 (Dec 29, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Will schools continue to shut down the next 3 years if there's even 1 case in the classroom and the students vaccinated?  Will we still be requiring non stop testing for schools and athletics?


Public schools will die a slow death.  Education gap by demographic will widen.  Teacher unions will continue to morph into PACs, and many teachers who want to do right by their kids will take notice of their unions. If you are a teacher, I'm not attacking you.  Your unions are starting to taste a little different. If yours it GTG, then great.

There is a term used often in low income areas - Food deserts.  Education deserts may become a thing.  It's unfortunate.  I give credit to our school district, they are trying hard to remain relevant.  They understand the dollars and sense and have not shut down since we opened.  They are staring down their own pandemic - parents pulling kids out of the district straight into Charter and Privates.


----------



## crush (Dec 29, 2020)

happy9 said:


> Public schools will die a slow death.  Education gap by demographic will widen.  Teacher unions will continue to morph into PACs, and many teachers who want to do right by their kids will take notice of their unions. If you are a teacher, I'm not attacking you.  Your unions are starting to taste a little different. If yours it GTG, then great.
> 
> There is a term used often in low income areas - Food deserts.  Education deserts may become a thing.  It's unfortunate.  I give credit to our school district, they are trying hard to remain relevant.  They understand the dollars and sense and have not shut down since we opened.  They are staring down their own pandemic - parents pulling kids out of the district straight into Charter and Privates.


Home school is huge now Happy and so many are starting to like it more and more.  My dd does school from home and she loves it for the sleep part. I actually think sleep is super important so I see good things from not going to in person school.  I have a very good buddy named Bruno who just got his black belt and he will soon be Dr Bruno.  My wife speaks 5 languages so were thinking of opening a private specialized academy for Languages & the Arts & Sports Training.  I might open up Crush PE.  All the kids meet up at the park and I run those kids and make sure they eat healthy and stay in shape.  Nutritional program and will never shame another child because of weight issues.  We will work with each child where they're at.  Education is key.  The name is going to be, "Elite Prep Academy."


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 29, 2020)

happy9 said:


> Public schools will die a slow death.  Education gap by demographic will widen.  Teacher unions will continue to morph into PACs, and many teachers who want to do right by their kids will take notice of their unions. If you are a teacher, I'm not attacking you.  Your unions are starting to taste a little different. If yours it GTG, then great.
> 
> There is a term used often in low income areas - Food deserts.  Education deserts may become a thing.  It's unfortunate.  I give credit to our school district, they are trying hard to remain relevant.  They understand the dollars and sense and have not shut down since we opened.  They are staring down their own pandemic - parents pulling kids out of the district straight into Charter and Privates.


"School districts from coast to coast have reported the number of students failing classes has risen by as many as two or three times - with English language learners and disabled and disadvantaged students suffering the most.


"It was completely off the rails from what is normal for us, and that was obviously very alarming," said Erik Jespersen, principal of Oregon's McNary High School, where 38% of grades in late October were failing, compared with 8% in normal times.

Educators see a number of factors at play: Students learning from home skip assignments - or school altogether. Internet access is limited or inconsistent, making it difficult to complete and upload assignments. And teachers who don't see their students in person have fewer ways to pick up on who is falling behind, especially with many keeping their cameras off during Zoom sessions.

The increase in failing grades has been seen in districts of all sizes around the country."



			https://abc7.com/students-failing-grades-school-remote-learning-covid/8557076/
		


And









						Students of Color Could Be up to 12 Months Behind by the End of This School Year
					

"The pandemic has forced the most vulnerable students into the least desirable learning situations"




					time.com
				




"Students in the U.S. are likely to have suffered up to nine months of learning loss in math, on average, by the end of the academic year because of disruptions caused by the pandemic, and students of color could be as many as 12 months behind"









						Students of Color Could Be up to 12 Months Behind by the End of This School Year
					

"The pandemic has forced the most vulnerable students into the least desirable learning situations"




					time.com
				





Schools are struggling to teach students remotely or in classrooms in which children wear masks and sit behind plastic shields. One national testing organization reported that the average student in grades 3-8 who took a math assessment this fall scored 5 to 10 percentile points behind students who took the same test last year, with Black, Hispanic and poor students falling even further behind.
Classrooms have been unusually empty, with quarantines and sickness affecting attendance in face-to-face schools and computer issues interfering with online instruction. Some districts report that the number of students who’ve missed at least 10 percent of classes, which studies show could lead to devastating lifelong consequences, has more than doubled.
And an estimated 3 million vulnerable students — who are homeless, in foster care, have disabilities or are learning English — appear to not be in school at all.









						An overwhelming toll: What America’s children have lost during the pandemic
					

“We’re going to almost need a New Deal for an entire generation of kids to give them the opportunity to catch up,” one advocate said.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 29, 2020)

meanwhile Israel seems to be doing vaccination right......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1343872956271882241


----------



## crush (Dec 29, 2020)

Step right up folks.  The tone is so soft, just like Dr F.  Just wait until "you dont want to participate in the saving of your life and other lives"  You will be 100% branded a selfish asshole for saying "no to bat virus and saving lives." 

The vice president-elect stressed, *"This is about saving lives. It's literally about saving lives. I trust the scientists, and it is the scientists who created and approved this vaccine everyone. So I urge everyone, when it is your turn, get vaccinated. It's about saving your life, the life of your family members, and the life of your community."*


----------



## crush (Dec 29, 2020)

*CNN’s Jim Acosta roasted for saying covering Trump was ‘nonstop national emergency,’ ‘might merit hazard pay’*
*Liberal reporter tells The Atlantic that Biden’s presidency could be ‘approached differently’*

Jan 5th, 2017 they had a meet up and the plan was started.  For Jim, Joe and so many others I know, this was a National Emergency for them and they had to do whatever they had to do to make sure orangeman never got another 4 years.  Jim played true to his beliefs and it showed the last fours. Good job Jim.  Now we shall see what the other side has to say about what they perceive as their emergency.  I think they think its a National Emergency as well.  Can we have sides that think their right?  Divided we are.  One side needs about 75% and the Armed Forces to get us through all this.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 29, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Will schools continue to shut down the next 3 years if there's even 1 case in the classroom and the students vaccinated?  Will we still be requiring non stop testing for schools and athletics?


I expect this to (continue to) be on a state-by-state basis - only changing when the leadership changes in the state. Oh yeah, the county of Santa Clara will be the last to change - and proud of it.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 29, 2020)

happy9 said:


> Public schools will die a slow death.  Education gap by demographic will widen.  Teacher unions will continue to morph into PACs, and many teachers who want to do right by their kids will take notice of their unions. If you are a teacher, I'm not attacking you.  Your unions are starting to taste a little different. If yours it GTG, then great.
> 
> There is a term used often in low income areas - Food deserts.  Education deserts may become a thing.  It's unfortunate.  I give credit to our school district, they are trying hard to remain relevant.  They understand the dollars and sense and have not shut down since we opened.  They are staring down their own pandemic - parents pulling kids out of the district straight into Charter and Privates.


I grew up in public schools, taught in public schools and I had been a big proponent of public education. However, where I live they have become more interested in power and serving what they believe is their interest than in serving the public. Recently, there was a case where a student took mathematics classes over the summer that are UC approved and the district refused to accept the classes and the child had to take the class over in school. They justified their placement policy as "protecting" children from overbearing parents. I had to laugh that this was the reason they gave. Less than three years ago we discovered homeschooling was actually much easier than we imagined. It also fit our daughter's personality, she got ahead in her areas of interest and it gave us unimagined flexibility. If the school would have worked with us, just a little, we wouldn't have considered pulling her out. I wouldn't be surprised to see a several percent drop in the enrollment in public education. I'd also expect it to be skewed toward the high performers.


----------



## crush (Dec 29, 2020)

*It's here!!!!

Today we discovered Colorado’s first case of the COVID-19 variant B.1.1.7, the same variant discovered in the UK.  *

Now what are we going to do?  C.9.9.3 might be 10x worse then this variant of the B.1.1.7 from the Covid 19.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 29, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> . I'd also expect it to be skewed toward the high performers.


In California, there are a few other factors as well at play that will accelerate this including: a) revision of reading lists to include more diverse material and tilting away from the classics, b) history revision resulting from the 1619 project, c) a growing emphasis in schools away from the fundamentals and towards instruction like diversity/sex ed/activism, d) the ongoing math issues resulting from the common core, and e) continued slide away from gifted programs.  Any one of those on their own isn't enough to tilt things, but when taken together it lessens the value of the package as a whole for high performing students.  Since high performing is correlated to high income, there you go.....


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 29, 2020)

Maybe this league expands into CA soon.









						Antifa launches soccer league in Portland
					

Antifa is taking a break from its usual goal of combating fascism on the long-suffering streets of Portland — to instead tackle each other in its very own soccer league. The newly formed Anti…




					nypost.com


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 29, 2020)

Only way this is happening is if frontline workers (including the office workers, security, back room support like radiologists and back office support like admins and accountants) are saying no in at least modest numbers.  









						After Disney employee says she got COVID-19 vaccine, Redlands hospital confirms some lower-priority workers are getting shots
					

Nearly as soon as the COVID-19 vaccine was made available in California, accounts started emerging of people skipping the priority line ahead of front-line workers and long-term care residents. Mos…




					ktla.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 29, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Only way this is happening is if frontline workers (including the office workers, security, back room support like radiologists and back office support like admins and accountants) are saying no in at least modest numbers.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I am sure there will be some level of corruption in all this, but if they have the vaccine and not enough show up in the group that is approved, just give it to someone that hasn't had it yet. I worry a lot more about waiting around to give shots to "approved" groups than I do about people trying to jump the line. There are definitely indications that point to a painfully slow rollout.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 29, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I am sure there will be some level of corruption in all this, but if they have the vaccine and not enough show up in the group that is approved, just give it to someone that hasn't had it yet. I worry a lot more about waiting around to give shots to "approved" groups than I do about people trying to jump the line. There are definitely indications that point to a painfully slow rollout.


it will become much worse though as they start doing it by job. How are you going to police that?  How do you prove you are a supermarket worker?  You’d have to build a website with employee verification into it. Or turn it over to companies (and they’ll be screaming when the ceo families get it too and some janitor dies because they ran out).  Then there’s also the issue that Rich and near rich people are offering bocu bucks for it.  Some are easier: cops, teachers (you go through the school district), firefighters, military. But once you get out of the government controlled rosters it get really hard with supermarket workers, sanitation contractors, studio audiovisual production, airlines and transport. 

the easiest way to do it is by age. Most folks have Some form of Id and even if you make Limited exemptions it’s hard for a 50 year old to pose as a 70 year old. If you have left over in a group offer it to the next 5 years.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 29, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> it will become much worse though as they start doing it by job. How are you going to police that?  How do you prove you are a supermarket worker?  You’d have to build a website with employee verification into it. Or turn it over to companies (and they’ll be screaming when the ceo families get it too and some janitor dies because they ran out).  Then there’s also the issue that Rich and near rich people are offering bocu bucks for it.  Some are easier: cops, teachers (you go through the school district), firefighters, military. But once you get out of the government controlled rosters it get really hard with supermarket workers, sanitation contractors, studio audiovisual production, airlines and transport.
> 
> the easiest way to do it is by age. Most folks have Some form of Id and even if you make Limited exemptions it’s hard for a 50 year old to pose as a 70 year old. If you have left over in a group offer it to the next 5 years.


Agree. Maybe have regular clinics give vaccines based on age and use "mobile" clinics to go to places of work? Churches in some communities will give easier access to larger numbers of those typically underserved. I feel like the worst "crime" in this will be having vaccines sitting for days/weeks while you try to get the "correct" group to the clinic.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 29, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Agree. Maybe have regular clinics give vaccines based on age and use "mobile" clinics to go to places of work? Churches in some communities will give easier access to larger numbers of those typically underserved. I feel like the worst "crime" in this will be having vaccines sitting for days/weeks while you try to get the "correct" group to the clinic.


One problem is they don't have the staff to do mobile clinics. For the H1N1 vaccine they relied on separate gathering places in community centers.  You also have the temperature problem with these particular vaccines (at least until the AZ vaccine is out).  Finally, there's the difficulty of going place to place: you need someone to schedule it with the local Vons, you need the Vons to have all their workers show up (including those who are off shift), and then you need to move onto the next Vons which involves cutting through traffic.  That's also something that has to be coordinated with corporate, not the local store manager who doesn't have authority to do it.  The studios and tech companies will have an easier time of it....you can just have employees gather at the central campus.  Same for police...there's a central police station.  A university could do it, so could a local school district.  But the truly essential workers are scattered about, which means a lot of red tape and delay as you try and coordinate vaccination schedules for mobile units.  Then you have to catch not only the Vons but also all the little ones (ma and pa's local deli)....they want to do restaurant workers too which is a nightmare to coordinate a Chili's let alone every taco shop in Los Angeles.

If not having vaccine sit around unused is our goal, the way to do it would be regular clinics based on age, and then give it to the large corps with central locations (you could also do universities on the same rational, as well as school districts).  The problem is all those people are well-off, less diverse, and many are working from home remotely.  Doesn't really meet the equity requirements California has laid out, which brings us back to then just do it by age....also easy to schedule and develop an app for an appointment.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 30, 2020)

Study of virus screening at concert reports zero infections
					

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — The organizers of an indoor music festival in Barcelona to test the effectiveness of same-day coronavirus screening said Wednesday that preliminary results indicate there was zero transmission inside…




					hosted.ap.org


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 30, 2020)




----------



## Grace T. (Dec 30, 2020)

Vaccine rollout is stumbling.  I swear govt officials are such idiots....it's not like any of this hasn't been foreseen by people (including people on these boards)......

p.s. there's no way on earth I'm waiting 2 hours in a line, let alone 24 hours overnight, to get the vaccine.  I'm sure my folks will.  I'm not.









						COVID-19 vaccine rollout falls short of expectations, raising questions about 2021 timeline
					

The U.S. vaccine rollout moved slower than expected, stoking fears of systemic problems and people having to wait months longer to get their shot.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 30, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Vaccine rollout is stumbling.  I swear govt officials are such idiots....it's not like any of this hasn't been foreseen by people (including people on these boards)......
> 
> p.s. there's no way on earth I'm waiting 2 hours in a line, let alone 24 hours overnight, to get the vaccine.  I'm sure my folks will.  I'm not.
> 
> ...


It's good that there are those that are anxious to get it and willing to wait early in the process when the efficiency of delivery is an issue. If I understood what is going on in FL, clinics just advertised it was available first-come, first-serve if you are 65 and older. Lots of glitches, but the process will improve as they go, right?









						Long lines, crashing websites, conflicting information confound COVID-19 vaccine rollout to Florida seniors
					

A move by Gov. DeSantis to prioritize immunization of those 65 and older lead to lines, confusion as counties and hospitals scramble to meet demand.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 30, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Lots of glitches, but the process will improve as they go,


Yep. Gov is always slow at the beginning of any major endeavor.

With time they will get better.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 30, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep. Gov is always slow at the beginning of any major endeavor.
> 
> With time they will get better.


Errrrr..........










						When There Wasn't Enough Hand Sanitizer, Distilleries Stepped Up. Now They're Facing $14,060 FDA Fees.
					

UPDATE: It's been a whirlwind 24 hours for American craft distillers, but 2020 is ending with some good news: Thanks...




					reason.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 31, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Errrrr..........
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Classic case of gov screwing stuff up. 

By the way I notice the pro lockdown and mask group lead by the esteemed @dad4 have gone silent. 

I guess when the preferred solution you have advocated for and states and countries have tried 2 times now clearly doesn't work, there isn't much to fall back on. When other states had spikes they were quick to assign blame...restaurants, masks, etc. When CA who has all those policies in place has the worst spike recently in the nation, there isn't much to say since those policies didn't work...again.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Dec 31, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Classic case of gov screwing stuff up.
> 
> By the way I notice the pro lockdown and mask group lead by the esteemed @dad4 have gone silent.
> 
> I guess when the preferred solution you have advocated for and states and countries have tried 2 times now clearly doesn't work, there isn't much to fall back on. When other states had spikes they were quick to assign blame...restaurants, masks, etc. When CA who has all those policies in place has the worst spike recently in the nation, there isn't much to say since those policies didn't work...again.


The bitch train is getting on planes to Scottsdale as we speak.  Even EOTL... though he/she only needs 1 ticket.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 31, 2020)

Scott m Shurson said:


> The bitch train is getting on planes to Scottsdale as we speak.  Even EOTL... though he/she only needs 1 ticket.


Fortunately we won't see EOTL in AZ. He prefers places that have more restrictions in place that don't work. He likes the virtue signaling aspect of following the said rules.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 31, 2020)

Strange how conservative’s are now the anti-establishment group and the peace and love types are the ones who comply.


----------



## Desert Hound (Dec 31, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Strange how conservative’s are now the anti-establishment group and the peace and love types are the ones who comply.


Yes the left has become the man so to speak. Most of their preferred solutions require an ever larger government with ever more rules and regulations.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 31, 2020)

Desert Hound said:


> Classic case of gov screwing stuff up.
> 
> By the way I notice the pro lockdown and mask group lead by the esteemed @dad4 have gone silent.
> 
> I guess when the preferred solution you have advocated for and states and countries have tried 2 times now clearly doesn't work, there isn't much to fall back on. When other states had spikes they were quick to assign blame...restaurants, masks, etc. When CA who has all those policies in place has the worst spike recently in the nation, there isn't much to say since those policies didn't work...again.


@dad4 and the others have been active on the soccer end of things, still spouting their gospel, only on those end of the boards where they knows their dogma can’t be challenged with non-soccer related facts.


----------



## dad4 (Dec 31, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> @dad4 and the others have been active on the soccer end of things, still spouting their gospel, only on those end of the boards where they knows their dogma can’t be challenged with non-soccer related facts.


Hi, Grace.  Happy new year.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 31, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Strange how conservative’s are now the anti-establishment group and the peace and love types are the ones who comply.


This is a very insightful point but the extremes of both parties are in the same posture right now.  The establishment center is represented by the likes right now of an aged (and perhaps not full there) joe Biden (whose son further is under a tax/corruption investigation) and Mitch mcconnell (very strange bedfellows). Remember the left too went off on protests of stay at home orders when it suited them, then again to celebrate the Biden victory.  The left/right are competing now for minority and working class voters while the establishment has the backing of the upper middle class and big business.   The only reason there hasn’t been outright war has been because the right has sided with the police and they still think the police have their backs. The moment that changes is the moment things will unravel (if ever).  In the meantime you have this rickety establishmentarian center trying to hold things together but given their history of corruption and cronyism they have no love of the people and no one willing to go to bat for them. Biden won because of revulsion at trump...no one really loves him.   The rs are already tearing themselves apart with calls for the formation of a patriot party, an alternative to Fox News, and despite establishment dreams trump isn’t going anywhere.  The ds will be held together for as long as Biden is able to function but no one thinks he’ll make it through 2 terms.

we may be in for a pause (a colleague and I were hotly debating whether they’ll be a spending holiday after the vaccine due to pent up demand v the devastation lockdowns have done to average folks). But buckle up...2020 may be in the rear view mirror but you ain’t seen nothing yet.  Civil society has never been so strained and 2020 was just a giant wrecking ball that went right through it.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 31, 2020)

Wow..............it does explain though why my uncle's radiologist friend, my radiologist godfather, and his hospital risk-assessment manager wife all got it




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1344648353397702657


----------



## crush (Dec 31, 2020)




----------



## crush (Dec 31, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Wow..............it does explain though why my uncle's radiologist friend, my radiologist godfather, and his hospital risk-assessment manager wife all got it
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Grace, I can;t afford LA Times online.  Can you share article with me please?  My question that is pressing my brain is why were almost half of healthcare workers not wanting to line up for bat virus?  My good friend is a Dr and said if your healthy, stay away from the game of Wuhan Roulette.  I dont want to play the risky game called, *Bells Palsy*.  Yes folks, step right up and take a chance of not feeling half your fuc*ing face for the rest of your life. My wife and I are so healthy.  We wear a dam mask, wash are freaking hands, make our dd wash before she enters our home and she has to wear a mask at all times.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Dec 31, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> Wow..............it does explain though why my uncle's radiologist friend, my radiologist godfather, and his hospital risk-assessment manager wife all got it
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not a great sign when significant portions of the medical field refuse the vaccine. This sounds to me like it has the potential to considerably lengthen the timeline for getting the case infection rate down.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 31, 2020)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Not a great sign when significant portions of the medical field refuse the vaccine. This sounds to me like it has the potential to considerably lengthen the timeline for getting the case infection rate down.


It's interesting the hospitals haven't mandated it yet (maybe because the liability shield is weak).  The assumption had been that in addition to airlines/ticket services (who lose little by requiring a mandate) that employers would.  And with Biden (even if he wins both Senate seats) unlikely to have the numbers to pass such a shield, it sets up an interesting fight.  I still say California will probably try a mandate (though Newsom is getting worried now about the recall effort....even though its still a long shot his change of tone on schools is an indication he doesn't want to do anything that would push the effort over the line)....probably against the kids since they have the fewest rights and are the easiest targets as the entire lockdown thing has demonstrated.

side note: sorry Crush...can't repost the article...I only have a work subscription and its a violation of the T&C to post elsewhere....why I posted the twitter summary....I wouldn't pay for a personal LA Times subscription (like the NYT or WP it's one of the poorer sources for news.....and I say this despite my friend Megan being a columnist for the WP).


----------



## Glitterhater (Dec 31, 2020)

Here is an excerpt that is really not surprising:

Respondents to the Kaiser Family Foundation survey who said they probably wouldn’t get the vaccine said they worried about side effects; they lacked trust in the government to ensure the vaccines were safe; they had concerns about the role of politics in the development of the vaccines; or they believed the dangers of COVID-19 had been exaggerated.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 31, 2020)

It's still too early to tell because: a) the pre-Christmas testing surge artificially inflated numbers (by how much who knows), and b) testing lags due to the holidays, and c) a slight dip in testing over Christmas, but LA might have hit peak 12-22 at 17,024.  Ventura by contrast reported today 1,582 for the period 2-3 days ago so despite the holidays it's still going up there.  La County 7 day positivity rate is at 17% and is still rising slightly but not as hard and fast as it was.


----------



## crush (Dec 31, 2020)

*Ohio Governor: 60% of Nursing Home Staff Refusing Vaccine

*
*"We aren't going to make them, but we wish they had a higher compliance,” 
"Our message today is the train may not be coming back for a while.” 
DeWine added, “Everyone makes their own choice about this but we want to make it clear that opportunity may not come back for a while.” *


----------



## crush (Dec 31, 2020)




----------



## Grace T. (Dec 31, 2020)

crush said:


> *Ohio Governor: 60% of Nursing Home Staff Refusing Vaccine
> 
> View attachment 9829*
> *"We aren't going to make them, but we wish they had a higher compliance,”
> ...


The entire point for the nursing home staff is not to protect the staff but to protect the residents...particularly those residents with compromised systems that might not achieve 90% protection. If they don't force it here, not sure they can force it anywhere (other than schools) at least in the short term....


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 31, 2020)

How about this to end 2020....happy 2021 all!  See you in the new year.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1344810949996392448


----------



## crush (Dec 31, 2020)




----------



## crush (Dec 31, 2020)

Almost 2021


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Dec 31, 2020)

Grace T. said:


> This is a very insightful point but the extremes of both parties are in the same posture right now.  The establishment center is represented by the likes right now of an aged (and perhaps not full there) joe Biden (whose son further is under a tax/corruption investigation) and Mitch mcconnell (very strange bedfellows). Remember the left too went off on protests of stay at home orders when it suited them, then again to celebrate the Biden victory.  The left/right are competing now for minority and working class voters while the establishment has the backing of the upper middle class and big business.   The only reason there hasn’t been outright war has been because the right has sided with the police and they still think the police have their backs. The moment that changes is the moment things will unravel (if ever).  In the meantime you have this rickety establishmentarian center trying to hold things together but given their history of corruption and cronyism they have no love of the people and no one willing to go to bat for them. Biden won because of revulsion at trump...no one really loves him.   The rs are already tearing themselves apart with calls for the formation of a patriot party, an alternative to Fox News, and despite establishment dreams trump isn’t going anywhere.  The ds will be held together for as long as Biden is able to function but no one thinks he’ll make it through 2 terms.
> 
> we may be in for a pause (a colleague and I were hotly debating whether they’ll be a spending holiday after the vaccine due to pent up demand v the devastation lockdowns have done to average folks). But buckle up...2020 may be in the rear view mirror but you ain’t seen nothing yet.  Civil society has never been so strained and 2020 was just a giant wrecking ball that went right through it.


No one really loves trump? I have seen quite the contrary. He is praised and idolized like some orange King Kong god-like creature.
 . . . and the civil war scenario is that of the make believe, dress up, weekend warriors dressed in fatigues who just want to be able to go for a sit down dinner at Applebee’s, and some anarchist locked away in their personal bunkers stroking their glock while 2, 4, 6, 8 Channing their life away.


----------



## Grace T. (Dec 31, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> No one really loves trump? I have seen quite the contrary. He is praised and idolized like some orange King Kong god-like creature.
> . . . and the civil war scenario is that of the make believe, dress up, weekend warriors dressed in fatigues who just want to be able to go for a sit down dinner at Applebee’s, and some anarchist locked away in their personal bunkers stroking their glock while 2, 4, 6, 8 Channing their life away.


Biden.   Both Trump and Obama beat him out in the most admired Gallup poll.

Far from battling the street, the bigger problem is the collapse of institutions.  Health experts have torched themselves.  So have the teachers.  Supreme Court headed that way if not there.  Elections are really scary (after 2016 large chunk of the Ds didn't trust them, now the Rs....once elections breakdown as a legitimate civic remedy there's a real problem).   The establishment center (R and D) is loved by no one.  Trust in journalism is dead.  Banks and financial institutions torched themselves in '08.  The CIA/FBI have torched themselves at least with the right.  Police with the left.  Churches have been bleeding followers except on the right.  Pretty much leaves just the military standing (except for the far left).....oh yeah and the political tribes with their respective bases.  Not healthy at all.


----------



## N00B (Dec 31, 2020)

Hüsker Dü said:


> No one really loves trump? I have seen quite the contrary. He is praised and idolized like some orange King Kong god-like creature.
> . . . and the civil war scenario is that of the make believe, dress up, weekend warriors dressed in fatigues who just want to be able to go for a sit down dinner at Applebee’s, and some anarchist locked away in their personal bunkers stroking their glock while 2, 4, 6, 8 Channing their life away.


The analogy would be Sanders.  Passionate support by some, but disagreeable to a large liberal constituency and the entirety of the other side... same with the orange man, in reverse.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Biden.   Both Trump and Obama beat him out in the most admired Gallup poll.
> 
> Far from battling the street, the bigger problem is the collapse of institutions.  Health experts have torched themselves.  So have the teachers.  Supreme Court headed that way if not there.  Elections are really scary (after 2016 large chunk of the Ds didn't trust them, now the Rs....once elections breakdown as a legitimate civic remedy there's a real problem).   The establishment center (R and D) is loved by no one.  Trust in journalism is dead.  Banks and financial institutions torched themselves in '08.  The CIA/FBI have torched themselves at least with the right.  Police with the left.  Churches have been bleeding followers except on the right.  Pretty much leaves just the military standing (except for the far left).....oh yeah and the political tribes with their respective bases.  Not healthy at all.


This post would fit in nicely with my "Thank You Mr. Trump" thread.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 1, 2021)

N00B said:


> The analogy would be Sanders.  Passionate support by some, but disagreeable to a large liberal constituency and the entirety of the other side... same with the orange man, in reverse.


1 in 10 Sanders supporters voted for trump in 2016.
https://twitter.com/BernieSanders








						Here's How Many Bernie Sanders Supporters Ultimately Voted For Trump
					

Yes, Bernie Sanders supporters who voted for President Trump could have cost Hillary Clinton the election. But then, about the same share of Republican primary voters defected to Clinton.




					www.npr.org
				






https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1344435229403045893/retweets


----------



## Chalklines (Jan 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Not a great sign when significant portions of the medical field refuse the vaccine. This sounds to me like it has the potential to considerably lengthen the timeline for getting the case infection rate down.


The longer things go with out getting things back to some what normal is so damaging.That vaccine needs to get out. Everyone seems to be looking past the mental health crisis going on now too. Even after the virus is eradicated the damaging psyche of the virus will last well over a decade and unfortunately that's what I think the virus was manufactured for. FEAR and CONTROL.


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)

Chalklines said:


> The longer things go with out getting things back to some what normal is so damaging.*That vaccine needs to get out. Everyone seems to be looking past the mental health* crisis going on now too. Even after the virus is eradicated the damaging psyche of the virus will last well over a decade and unfortunately that's what I think the virus was manufactured for. *FEAR and CONTROL.*


It's out bro, but many are running away from it.  Not everyone is looking past mental health.  Grace and others have shared from their heart and so many are in pain that comes with fear.  Bad combo.  Are you going to get in the Lines for bat virus Chalk so you can go see Mickey and travel?  My wife and I are 100% a no for sure.  Dr Flip Flop said hopefully we can get back to normal hopefully by the fall of 2021 after EVERYONE gets their shots.  Problem right now is over 60% are saying, "get that sh*t away from me." 

Headline News From OC:
*Could Disneyland require proof of COVID-19 vaccination when it reopens?
Airlines, concert promoters, theme parks and other businesses that cater to travelers or draw large crowds have begun talking about the need for an immunity passport that could be used to gain entrance to theaters, venues, stadiums, offices and countries.*


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 1, 2021)

Chalklines said:


> The longer things go with out getting things back to some what normal is so damaging.That vaccine needs to get out. Everyone seems to be looking past the mental health crisis going on now too. Even after the virus is eradicated the damaging psyche of the virus will last well over a decade and unfortunately that's what I think the virus was manufactured for. FEAR *OF* CONTROL.


There I fixed it for ya!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 1, 2021)

crush said:


> It's out bro, but many are running away from it.  Not everyone is looking past mental health.  Grace and others have shared from their heart and so many are in pain that comes with fear.  Bad combo.  Are you going to get in the Lines for bat virus Chalk so you can go see Mickey and travel?  My wife and I are 100% a no for sure.  Dr Flip Flop said hopefully we can get back to normal hopefully by the fall of 2021 after EVERYONE gets their shots.  Problem right now is over 60% are saying, "get that sh*t away from me."
> 
> Headline News From OC:
> *Could Disneyland require proof of COVID-19 vaccination when it reopens?
> Airlines, concert promoters, theme parks and other businesses that cater to travelers or draw large crowds have begun talking about the need for an immunity passport that could be used to gain entrance to theaters, venues, stadiums, offices and countries.*


Change is frightening to some. As information is obtained guidance changes, don't let that scare you. We move on the best we can. Ignore the detractors.


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Change is *frightening *to some. As information is obtained guidance changes, don't let that* scare *you. We move on the best we can. Ignore the detractors.


It's more about the rights of all Americans Husker.  If my wife and I are 99% healthy and have no symptoms and test negative, wear mask and stay away 6 feet, we should be free to enjoy life's pleasures as the next sell out, no?  Or are we now told. "sorry Charlie, no roller coaster ride for you and wife because your scared of a little bat poison."    
Bottom-line Husker and your pal Wuhan is this: the Coronavirus vaccination verification is fraught with potential controversy.  COVID-19 vaccination mandates by private businesses like Disneyland could raise issues related to civil rights, religious objections, disability protections, privacy concerns and viral transmission rates.  The list will go on and on.  Dr Flip Flop has made it worse because he lies all the time.  He calls it keeping the truth away from the children.  Dude is 80 and he lies a lot.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 1, 2021)

crush said:


> It's more about the rights of all Americans Husker.  If my wife and I are 99% healthy and have no symptoms and test negative, wear mask and stay away 6 feet, we should be free to enjoy life's pleasures as the next sell out, no?  Or are we now told. "sorry Charlie, no roller coaster ride for you and wife because your scared of a little bat poison."
> Bottom-line Husker and your pal Wuhan is this: the Coronavirus vaccination verification is fraught with potential controversy.  COVID-19 vaccination mandates by private businesses like Disneyland could raise issues related to civil rights, religious objections, disability protections, privacy concerns and viral transmission rates.  The list will go on and on.  Dr Flip Flop has made it worse because he lies all the time.  He calls it keeping the truth away from the children.  Dude is 80 and he lies a lot.


If you and your wife are asymptomatic you endanger anyone you come in direct contact with, namely those sitting behind you on said roller coster, the ticket agent, the people at all the places you stop at on your travels, etc (big picture). I will agree the vaccination is most definitely fraught with controversy. Mandates by private businesses? Like not making a rainbow cake for a gay wedding? Please give me an example of Dr. Fauci lying. You, like many who side with trump's version of things don't seem to understand your whole outlook on things has been altered by the alternative fact president. Changing ones opinion based on the latest findings isn't lying it's SCIENCE and with a "novel" virus (novel meaning 'new' to the world, although related to other previous strains). Disingenuous and intentionally ignorant is no way to go through life.


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> If you and your wife are asymptomatic you endanger anyone you come in direct contact with, namely those sitting behind you on said roller coster, the ticket agent, the people at all the places you stop at on your travels, etc (big picture). I will agree the vaccination is most definitely fraught with controversy. Mandates by private businesses? Like not making a rainbow cake for a gay wedding? Please give me an example of Dr. Fauci lying. You, like many who side with trump's version of things don't seem to understand your whole outlook on things has been altered by the alternative fact president. Changing ones opinion based on the latest findings isn't lying it's SCIENCE and with a "novel" virus (novel meaning 'new' to the world, although related to other previous strains). Disingenuous and intentionally ignorant is no way to go through life.


In March, Dr. Fauci said* "there’s no reason to be walking around with a mask"* and cautioned that *"there are unintended consequences" with wearing them.

*

Marco said he lied too. 
*Sen. Marco Rubio: Dr. Fauci lied about coronavirus to manipulate our behavior — that's appalling*


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 1, 2021)

crush said:


> In March, Dr. Fauci said* "there’s no reason to be walking around with a mask"* and cautioned that *"there are unintended consequences" with wearing them.*
> 
> Marco said he lied too.
> *Sen. Marco Rubio: Dr. Fauci lied about coronavirus to manipulate our behavior — that's appalling*


I would not use Marco Rubio to drive home a point. Even if it were otherwise valid.


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I would not use Marco Rubio to drive home a point. Even if it were otherwise valid.


It was satire sauce I mixed


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 1, 2021)

Chalklines said:


> The longer things go with out getting things back to some what normal is so damaging.That vaccine needs to get out. Everyone seems to be looking past the mental health crisis going on now too. Even after the virus is eradicated the damaging psyche of the virus will last well over a decade and unfortunately that's what I think the virus was manufactured for. FEAR and CONTROL.


There will be and are people with damaged psyches due to the virus, but I believe the large majority of the people will gladly move on with life as it was before the virus once the virus fades away.

I don't believe it was "manufactured" for "fear and control" - at least not in the US. I try to remember never to attribute to malice that can be explained by incompetence, but there's definitely a power struggle.

Some things are interesting to me going forward. The first is related to the fact that many appear to be surprised by the vaccine response here in CA. Based on who we elect, there is nothing about the response that surprised me. The feeling I get is that there is a significant number of people with children who are dissatisfied with CA's response in general and specifically w.r.t. children. With Newsome as governor, look at SF as your model. Since we all have children, I did two Google searches: "Is San Francisco good for raising children?" and "Is Austin good for raising children". Both areas are solidly blue. The first lines of the results are interesting.
SF: "San Francisco is a great city for the rich"
Austin: "Raising a family in Austin can be a wonderful experience."

Will the virus response accelerate the already existing trend to move out of CA? Beyond families moving out, we now have a few large companies moving out as well. We also have a greater acceptance of professionals working remotely - which may mean working outside of CA. For schools, how many will decide that public school is not the best alternative for them? I am not predicting a collapse, but I have to think that the tax base will take a hit significant enough to squeeze many existing programs - including public schools. We have also heard since the pandemic about how many communities are already underserved,  and that's why the virus has inordinately affected those communities. I can't imagine that gets better.

Ha! I just realized I put up a rather negative post as my first in the new year. At least it is appropriate in the "Bad News Thread" and in "Off Topic 2" where all the crazies reside  Happy New Year to all the real people behind your screen names. I appreciate your civil discourse.


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> *I believe the large majority of the people will gladly move on with life as it was before the virus once the virus fades away.
> I don't believe it was "manufactured" for "fear and control" - at least not in the US.
> Will the virus response accelerate the already existing trend to move out of CA?
> Ha! I just realized I put up a rather negative post as my first in the new year. At least it is appropriate in the "Bad News Thread" and in "Off Topic 2" where all the crazies reside  Happy New Year to all the real people behind your screen names. I appreciate your civil discourse.*


I love you man. I'm taking you to task on a few things smarty pants.  First, life as we new it is 100% not coming back.  You can take that to da bank. Second, I want to believe like you that this Bat Virus from Wuhan was all one big naturally created virus by mother earth and human error released it out to the general public for a game of Global Roulette.  However, my sources in high places tell me it's all part of a larger and more global plan.  My sources are telling me we have some true sell outs.  This is not a negative post btw and I agree with almost everything you wrote.  I know so many that have left and now I know more that are leaving.  My kids are too old to leave.  I would have left if my kids were 5 or 3.  I would also put my kids in either my home school or I would look for a great Charter or Private or some Hybrid model.  I'm crazy for life and I will live as I see fit.  Get out of my way it's time to play.  2021!!!


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)

Happy New Years all you crazies!!!  So we start with some sad news and just more bad news from the breaking news from ALL the news rooms and ALL their online bad news headlines.  Mitch and the gang cant find a way to add a little extra to the helping hand and that is "Breaking News with Wolf."  

*GOP-led Senate again blocks $2,000 stimulus check vote*
*"A huge chunk would essentially be socialism for rich people," McConnell said. *


*US coronavirus cases hit 20M mark, hospitalizations surpass 125,000 for second straight day*

*New Bat Virus Strain could be 10x more contagious then Covid 19, 18, 17, 16, 15..........................1.  

Dr Flip Flop is worried Americans wont listen to him again.  
Joe said t threw out his play book.  
Everyone needs two doses 
If folks don;t start lining up voluntarily then what?   
Listen up and do as we say or no life, no food or job.  Now STFU and listen to our instructions and all will go well for you and your family.  



This General is very upset at us as well and is being a good General for wearing his mask.  I actually have a pal who believes this guy and the guy in Wuhan over the Orange Man and our Military.  2021 is kicking and screaming unlike any start to any year in my life.  I would be watching the Rose Bowl parade ((my mom took us every year when we were kiddos.  Freeze our asses off but it was so fun to camp out on Colorodo Blvd.  Thanks mom ) and getting ready to watch some games.  I drove to go get take out for me and my wife last night and it was a ghost town and looked lonely for a Dec 31st.  A toast to a build better businesses for everyone in 2021, not just for the chosen few 

*


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> There will be and are people with damaged psyches due to the virus, but I believe the large majority of the people will gladly move on with life as it was before the virus once the virus fades away.
> 
> I don't believe it was "manufactured" for "fear and control" - at least not in the US. I try to remember never to attribute to malice that can be explained by incompetence, but there's definitely a power struggle.
> 
> ...




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1344883836933599234

But in all seriousness, this is what my friend and I were debating the other day.  How willing are people to move on, particularly when liberal governance and health experts may be reluctant to let them move on, with some companies insisting on health passports.  Economically, my gut also tells me we are in a bubble fed by cheap money and redirected spending.  I think it could go either way....there's lots of people ready to move on, some people with pent up demands for vacations and entertainment.....there's some people who aren't ready and/or have taken a serious hit from all this and the day or reckoning has been somewhat postponed by government policies.  It depends largely what the President-Elect does, so the prediction depends on how much faith you have in him.

And the thing with the public schools is they are vulnerable to a spiral....lose students, cut programs (because the teacher salaries won't be touched)----> cut programs, lose more students  ----> cut programs, and so on we go.


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1344883836933599234
> 
> But in all seriousness, this is what my friend and I were debating the other day.  How willing are people to move on, particularly when liberal governance and health experts may be reluctant to let them move on, with some companies insisting on health passports.  Economically, my gut also tells me we are in a bubble fed by cheap money and redirected spending.  I think it could go either way....there's lots of people ready to move on, some people with pent up demands for vacations and entertainment.....there's some people who aren't ready and/or have taken a serious hit from all this and the day or reckoning has been somewhat postponed by government policies.  It depends largely what the President-Elect does, so the prediction depends on how much faith you have in him.
> 
> And the thing with the public schools is they are vulnerable to a spiral....lose students, cut programs (because the teacher salaries won't be touched)----> cut programs, lose more students  ----> cut programs, and so on we go.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 1, 2021)

crush said:


> In March, Dr. Fauci said* "there’s no reason to be walking around with a mask"* and cautioned that *"there are unintended consequences" with wearing them.
> 
> View attachment 9831*
> 
> ...


Lol! Like I said the knowledge evolved. Seat belts weren’t mandatory for decades, you think they help?


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Lol! Like I said the knowledge evolved. Seat belts weren’t mandatory for decades, you think they help?


I really listen to him early on.  I heard that one of the Vaccines were made before Rona #19 was announced to the world.  Did you know about that lie Husker Du?  Are you espola too?  Where did he go and whatever happen to Fact?  I believed Dr Flip Flop and now I dont.  Way too many flips for me and he's 80 and he doesnt give a rat's ass about any of us who lost everything.  He made cover and now he is someone important.  Plus, he has stock in the vaccine biz.  I think he's a big fat liar.  Seat belt helps unless your car is on fire and your stuck in the car and you can;t get seat belt off.  I need to see more proof Husker and I need to see EVERYONE take the shot first.  My wife and I are now open to taking the shot last after we see the side effects after all the souls take it.  I'm laying low for the next 18 months.  I dont need to travel, I wont pay to watch sports, I have a soon to be new gig that will allow me to make a buck from home.  When I can go see prospects face to face and have real eye contact and close deals with a hand shake after all their objections are answered with honesty, then I be rolling in what I call, value based reward funds.  It's a never ending account that handles are the deposits for you digitally.  My fun comes when all I have to do is take withdrawals when I feel like.  The more true value you bring, the more rewards


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Weekly update - Looks like we are heading to about 80K for December. I was relieved to see that Redfield's projections may have been misrepresented by Forbes due to sloppy reporting. I'm inclined to believe he was.
> 
> There are some indications we are leveling off on cases. However, significant portions of the south (including Texas and Florida) and California are still rising. AZ appears to have reached its peak.
> 
> ...


Final Tally: 78,016 deaths in December.

I was 16K too optimistic and Biden was off by 172K predicting 320% over the actual. That's not easy to do in a month. It also makes me wonder if it is now a requirement that all presidents ignore the guidance of the CDC? 

These results support Grace's assertion that there is a "Team Scared and Delusional" and Biden is part of it.


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Final Tally: 78,016 deaths in December.
> 
> I was 16K too optimistic and Biden was off by 172K predicting 320% over the actual. That's not easy to do in a month. It also makes me wonder if it is now a requirement that all presidents ignore the guidance of the CDC?
> 
> These results support Grace's assertion that there is a "Team Scared and Delusional" and Biden is part of it.


*Romney calls for 'urgent' action to fix coronavirus vaccine delays*
*Only about 2.8 million people have been vaccinated*
They want to blame t for the roll out by the states.  What does he mean "urgent action to fix?"  Our Governor said he was skeptical and and so are the rest of us, for reals bro.  He wanted CA to take a looksy under da hood first to see what this vaccine is all about.  Read the bill before you say, "yes."  This is Wuhan Roulette and no two doses about that.  Two tries at Bellys Palsy.  The nurses and many I know in the know are 100%, "get it a away from me" attitude.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 1, 2021)

a damning indictment of government lockdowns/controls against the Rona.....



			http://ssbhalla.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Lockdowns-Closures-vs.-COVID19-Covid-Wins-Nov-4-1.pdf


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a damning indictment of government lockdowns/controls against the Rona.....
> 
> 
> 
> http://ssbhalla.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Lockdowns-Closures-vs.-COVID19-Covid-Wins-Nov-4-1.pdf


@dad4...the math part of this will keep you entertained for a good hour (I'll admit I found it challenging).  But they challenge your assumptions that it's all about the R0.  It's really a very fascinating piece....not saying it's all correct....but it does raise a lot of very interesting issues.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 1, 2021)

She added that a “general trust of public health officials in the Bay Area, leading to greater compliance with stay-at-home measures” may also explain why the surge isn’t as bad here compared with Southern California.









						These charts compare the coronavirus surge in Southern California and the Bay Area
					

California’s most populated counties and metro areas have felt the impact of the latest...




					www.sfchronicle.com


----------



## dad4 (Jan 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> She added that a “general trust of public health officials in the Bay Area, leading to greater compliance with stay-at-home measures” may also explain why the surge isn’t as bad here compared with Southern California.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'd like to think it is a reflection of the bay area's compliance with public health regulations.  Part of that is true.

It also reflects the fact that we have made the bay area a very inhospitable place for the working poor.  Our numbers are good in part because we forced our low income residents to leave.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I'd like to think it is a reflection of the bay area's compliance with public health regulations.  Part of that is true.
> 
> It also reflects the fact that we have made the bay area a very inhospitable place for the working poor.  Our numbers are good in part because we forced our low income residents to leave.


Is it really greater "compliance" when so many of the tech geeks rarely leave the house in the first place?


----------



## crush (Jan 1, 2021)




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## crush (Jan 2, 2021)

The bad news in OC some say is the cases are way way and way up.  Common flu is way way way down this year.  I have a question for Dad or Wuhan.
Why coronavirus deaths have not paced the soaring cases in Orange County?


----------



## crush (Jan 2, 2021)

My wife spoke to her bro in Japan last night.  He said the virus is out of control now. Everyone has been wearing a mask and their super clean, wash hands and all that clean stuff.  However, that Covid 19 got in his city somehow and fear is in full session.  Most of the people are scratching their heads wondering how Covid 19 is spreading so fast.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 2, 2021)

For all hoping we could somehow imitate Australia, move to New York...you might just get your wish (this is my line in the sand).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1345346921616044032


----------



## crush (Jan 2, 2021)




----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For all hoping we could somehow imitate Australia, move to New York...you might just get your wish (this is my line in the sand).
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1345346921616044032


"It's a good start"
- @dad4, probably


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 2, 2021)

Isn't that the bill that started around the Ebola outbreak? And never went anywhere? My guess is this will do the same.

An MD, (vs someone who knows law,) who contributes to Newsmax is likely not the best source.


----------



## crush (Jan 2, 2021)

Watch this you all.  I just about pee in my pants laughing so hard.  Now L Wood is saying some crazy stuff.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 2, 2021)

crush said:


> Watch this you all.  I just about pee in my pants laughing so hard.  Now L Wood is saying some crazy stuff.


Why is he so sweaty? Everything about that is just gross.


----------



## crush (Jan 2, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Why is he so sweaty? Everything about that is just gross.


I'm lost today more then any other day.  Check this guy out.  He's worth over a billion dollars.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 2, 2021)

Alarming number of US health care workers are refusing COVID-19 vaccine
					

US health care workers are first in line to receive the COVID-19 vaccine — but an alarming number across the country are refusing to do so.  Earlier this week, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine disc…




					nypost.com
				




Meanwhile, NY is throwing up a bunch of rules which would prohibit a "hey, pizza guy" approach like Israel and means some vaccine may go to waste instead of  people that want them.  Once again, NY showing everyone what NOT to do.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 2, 2021)

Lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak
					

Donald Trump's Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger told politicians that even China's leaders now admit their previous claims the virus originated in a Wuhan market are false.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Alarming number of US health care workers are refusing COVID-19 vaccine
> 
> 
> US health care workers are first in line to receive the COVID-19 vaccine — but an alarming number across the country are refusing to do so.  Earlier this week, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine disc…
> ...


Not good.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 3, 2021)

This little piece about the drop in enrollment in Catholic schools in SoCal (despite several of them having in person waivers) has me worried.  First, a disclaimer, that Catholic schools have been going through a decline generally over the last decade.  We also know private elementary schools with in person learning are oversubscribed right now.  The article claims the decline in enrollment is due to financial reasons (despite these schools servicing people who are in the category who have to work despite lockdowns).  It tells me a few things:  a) the shift away from public elementary schools is largely an upper middle class/upper class thing (which means suburban schools are where we'll feel the public school reckoning first), b) for the working class, it means that the drop we are seeing in attendance at public school probably isn't a shift to other educational alternatives (whether private, parochial, charter or homeschooling) but kids just not doing schooling which means the educational crisis is probably being understated at least for LA County and c) I'm beginning to lean on the there's a reckoning coming as opposed to a boom is coming from pent up demand on the economic front.








						Plunging enrollment leaves Catholic schools struggling to serve low-income students
					

L.A. Catholic schools, where nearly 8 in 10 are students of color, have seen plunging enrollment as parents pull their kids out for financial reasons.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak
> 
> 
> Donald Trump's Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger told politicians that even China's leaders now admit their previous claims the virus originated in a Wuhan market are false.
> ...


Isn't this a big story if true?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 3, 2021)

Garcetti admitting masks not working....he claims its because be passed a "tipping point" and holiday gatherings.  Disagrees Newsom's vaccine rollout is going poorly, blames Feds for not appropriating $.  Though the figures for 2 days are inflated due to a backlog in holiday numbers/testing, Los Angeles case numbers still haven't dipped and weekly average still rising.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Garcetti admitting masks not working....he claims its because be passed a "tipping point" and holiday gatherings.  Disagrees Newsom's vaccine rollout is going poorly, blames Feds for not appropriating $.  Though the figures for 2 days are inflated due to a backlog in holiday numbers/testing, Los Angeles case numbers still haven't dipped and weekly average still rising.


do you mean “not working” or “insufficient”?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> do you mean “not working” or “insufficient”?


Not doing what they hoped they would do.


----------



## crush (Jan 3, 2021)

Let's see, darkest days ever and ever is coming he said with a smirk.  He said 100% that the one lucky essential worker ((ditch digger or AC teach dude or now the furnace guy)) in a household of 8 that are all on lockdown comes home from catching Rona from another essential hard worker or house he was in helping bring heat to a cold house.  Everyone else is on lock down and then dad brings the virus home.  His dum kids who have their guard down then sneak out to play with other kids dum friends.  He also said that now more then ever healthy people are dropping like flies.  He didnt give any data or stats but he says so, so he is right.  He blamed the kids again like they all do.  He also thinks LA is fired up & excited with hope sprinkled on top about the vaccine and because of that many have their guard down because their so hopeful to get that bat virus from Wuhan U that we now know was man made or came from bat cave to lab then to Batman or Batwoman?  Something happen here folks.  Is this guy for real?  He has that smile that is odd to me.  Good luck LA, I mean that.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Not doing what they hoped they would do.


Many people interpret he phrase “not working” as “having minimal or no effect towards the intended outcome”.

In this case, calling masks “not working” will likely mislead some people into abandoning them entirely.  If what you mean is “not doing as much as we had hoped“, perhaps you could say that.

Saying “not working” is at best imprecise.  At worst, it puts you in the same logical category as the a-grammatical nitwits saying “virus gonna virus”.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Many people interpret he phrase “not working” as “having minimal or no effect towards the intended outcome”.
> 
> In this case, calling masks “not working” will likely mislead some people into abandoning them entirely.  If what you mean is “not doing as much as we had hoped“, perhaps you could say that.
> 
> Saying “not working” is at best imprecise.  At worst, it puts you in the same logical category as the a-grammatical nitwits saying “virus gonna virus”.


dictionary.com's 3rd definition of "to work" (v, adj): "of a plan or method, to have the desired result or effect".

For the record (again), I do think there's a limited set of circumstances (such as short term exposure in a doctor's office or grocery store) where masks might help, certain masks are better than others (with some actually being counterproductive), and one of the likely but still unproven impacts of masks is reducing viral loads.  Saying masks are doing just great has the opposite effect....encourages people to get together (like my church members Christmas eve), because they follow the faith of the science and think masks will protect them indoors for 3+ hours, including their aged grandparents.  And you know I do believe: virus gonna virus....nothing short of Chinese/Australian style lockdowns has been shown to stop the virus.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 3, 2021)

The desperation is palpable but it makes sense at this point....would also resolve some of the side effect concerns with the Moderna vaccine.









						Feds may cut Moderna vaccine doses in half so more people get shots, Warp Speed adviser says
					

Federal officials have said the U.S. will need to vaccinate roughly 80 percent of the population to achieve herd immunity against the coronavirus.




					www.politico.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 3, 2021)

The costs may be relatively small (particularly in situations such as stores where people only need to wear masks for a short time period) but it's false to say there are no costs to wearing a mask, particularly for workers and children that have to wear one all day.....  If it were really that easy we wouldn't have caught Fauci and others not wearing one when the cameras were rolling.



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1345815598224314369


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Many people interpret he phrase “not working” as “having minimal or no effect towards the intended outcome”.
> 
> In this case, calling masks “not working” will likely mislead some people into abandoning them entirely.  If what you mean is “not doing as much as we had hoped“, perhaps you could say that.
> 
> Saying “not working” is at best imprecise.  At worst, it puts you in the same logical category as the a-grammatical nitwits saying “virus gonna virus”.


I fear that "mask and distance" also misleads some people into believing that wearing a mask is as effective as distancing.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The costs may be relatively small (particularly in situations such as stores where people only need to wear masks for a short time period) but it's false to say there are no costs to wearing a mask, particularly for workers and children that have to wear one all day.....  If it were really that easy we wouldn't have caught Fauci and others not wearing one when the cameras were rolling.
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1345815598224314369


"Less happiness"? Well- no shit, we're in a pandemic and nothing is the same.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I fear that "mask and distance" also misleads some people into believing that wearing a mask is as effective as distancing.


 ”mask + distance + outside” is actually very good advice.   Just emphasize that it means do all three.

Do you have a better suggestion that is easy to remember?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 3, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> "Less happiness"? Well- no shit, we're in a pandemic and nothing is the same.


My younger bro (who is fluent in German....Dad insisted we all learn a 2 non native languages so we ended up with Chinese/Japanese, Russian/French, German/Italian) says like farfegnugen or schadenfreude since the survey was done in German it's a little hard to translate (there are various words for happiness apparently).  He says it's probably something like "satisfaction with life" and malaise is probably something closer to "mild depression".



dad4 said:


> ”mask + distance + outside” is actually very good advice.   Just emphasize that it means do all three.
> 
> Do you have a better suggestion that is easy to remember?


Yeah, they need a good slogan (probably the furthest from my areas of knowledge), but technically it's not really a summation.  If you are distanced (depending on the distance, and particularly outside), you don't need a mask.  If you are indoors at someone's house for long periods of times, like my church members on Christmas Eve, if someone is sick masks and 6 ft distance is probably not going to save you.  My guess is that masks probably do the most good for short periods of exposure and mainly for the employees such as at a supermarket, doctor's office, restaurant pick up, or car servicing.  They aren't all equivalent and out of those distancing is the most important (kind of like safe you know what....don't do it, but if you do use.....which BTW don't work in either protecting you from disease or pregnancy full time.....).  

But one of the big problems is, as Fauci has admitted, the health experts just aren't being honest with people.  Treat them like grownups.  Don't over promise like masks are better than vaccines because then when Los Angeles happens your credibility is shot (masks aren't working because the masks don't meet the goals you set).  Better to say hey we think they help a little, particularly indoors for short periods of exposure...distancing is far more important, but care about your fellow person and if you are going indoors please wear a mask...it might even reduce the viral loads....and hey one-off surgicals are much better than cloth and you can get rid of those bandanas and gaiters.  Well, marketing isn't really my area but I do know lying and manipulating your audience isn't a successful program long term.

The reason why they aren't doing it, BTW, I suspect is the same reason the teachers don't want to go back (and if you look back historically it's related to our supply problems in April/May).  They have to tell the grocery store employees, meat packers, factory workers, restaurant workers (who can't afford weekly testing like the studios do on productions) there's nothing we can do to protect them and no one wants to do that....hence masks are better than vaccines.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My younger bro (who is fluent in German....Dad insisted we all learn a 2 non native languages so we ended up with Chinese/Japanese, Russian/French, German/Italian) says like farfegnugen or schadenfreude since the survey was done in German it's a little hard to translate (there are various words for happiness apparently).  He says it's probably something like "satisfaction with life" and malaise is probably something closer to "mild depression".
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I wasn't looking for a mathematical formula.  Even if I had one, very few people could read it.

I was looking for a short bit of advice.  "Mask, distance, outdoors- do all three" is decent advice that lowers transmission and still lets you see friends.

By contrast, "virus gonna virus" is awful advice.  It is pure useless fatalism.  It just encourages people to give up and adopt the kinds of behavior that make the pandemic worse. 

So, stop making excuses for yourself and just do it.  Mask, distance, and stay outside.   It isn't that hard.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I wasn't looking for a mathematical formula.  Even if I had one, very few people could read it.
> 
> I was looking for a short bit of advice.  "Mask, distance, outdoors- do all three" is decent advice that lowers transmission and still lets you see friends.
> 
> ...


Like I said, I don't do marketing, but a more valuable piece of advice is for the authorities to just stop lying to people if they want to keep any shreds of credibility.  That just encourages people to stop listening to anything they say, and no pithy slogan will save them.

"virus gonna virus" by contrast isn't advice.  It's criticism of heavy handed NPIs which short of Chinese/Australian style lockdowns don't do very much.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> ”mask + distance + outside” is actually very good advice.   Just emphasize that it means do all three.
> 
> Do you have a better suggestion that is easy to remember?


I think it makes sense to approach it as we approach sex education. The only guarantee is abstinence (distance), but if you can't abstain use protection (mask), but know that protection is not 100%.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Like I said, I don't do marketing, but a more valuable piece of advice is for the authorities to just stop lying to people if they want to keep any shreds of credibility.  That just encourages people to stop listening to anything they say, and no pithy slogan will save them.
> 
> "virus gonna virus" by contrast isn't advice.  It's criticism of heavy handed NPIs which short of Chinese/Australian style lockdowns don't do very much.


"Virus gonna virus" is better described as an excuse used by those who have already decided they don't want to follow public health guidance.  

 You claim it is inevitable, which means you are now free to do anything you want.  ( After all, how can you be blamed for causing something that was going to happen anyway? )

There are intelligent criticisms of specific NPI.  "Virus gonna virus" isn't one of them.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> "Virus gonna virus" is better described as an excuse used by those who have already decided they don't want to follow public health guidance.


The virus is going to virus. 

If only there were some way to compare a mask up approach, lockdowns, school closures vs places that didn't do what CA has done.

Oh wait there is. 

As of today CA has 61k cases per million
TX has 62k cases per million
FL has 63k cases per million. 

If you have a school age kid, own a biz, work for a biz that has been deemed unessential, TX and Fl would be the places to be at. 

Had the CA approach worked we would see vastly different results. The idea is to stop the spread right? And yet the CA approach has produced the same results as 2 of the states who are in the widest open category. 

Masks? 

Before it became politicized the CDC listed a long list of studies all that showed that even in medical setting with professionals, masks had little utility in stopping the spread of the flu. Those studies had been done over the course of decades. 

The science hasn't changed. The politics have. We have seen the "experts" here and abroad move the goal posts, change their explanations, etc. That has been driven in large part by politics. Politicians want to be seen as problem solvers and doing something. CA falls deeply into that group.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 4, 2021)

Just got off the phone with my pediatrician friend.  She's just inundated.  She got the first dose of the vaccine (moderna).  Wasn't as bad as she thought it would be.  Her pet theory is the mutant strain of the virus is all over Los Angeles.  People masking up and with minimal contacts are getting sick.  Anecdotally the cases she's seeing now are much less severe than those she saw in the spring, though admittedly she doesn't see much by way of elderly people, even family member.  She thinks in LA County there's not much hope of middle schools or high schools being reopened this spring.


----------



## crush (Jan 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> "Virus gonna virus" is better described as an excuse used by those who have already decided they don't want to follow public health guidance.
> 
> You claim it is inevitable, which means you are now free to do anything you want.  ( After all, how can you be blamed for causing something that was going to happen anyway? )
> 
> There are intelligent criticisms of specific NPI.  "Virus gonna virus" isn't one of them.


Why keep everyone in their house where the virus lives?  I heard sunshine and the D Vit works wonders 


Desert Hound said:


> The virus is going to virus.
> 
> If only there were some way to compare a mask up approach, lockdowns, school closures vs places that didn't do what CA has done.
> 
> ...


It's called Junk for a reason.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 4, 2021)

It is important to remember this....

"Although they represent l*ess than 1* percent of the U.S. population and *just over 0.5 percent of COVID-19 cases*, nursing home residents accounted for *nearly 39 percent* of COVID-19 deaths through December 10."










						Mask Mandates: Do They Work? Are There Better Ways to Control COVID-19 Outbreaks?
					

A surge in COVID-19 cases in the United States and Europe has prompted calls for a national mask mandate here in America. Advocates of government edicts have asserted that these would bring the pandemic “under control” in a matter of weeks. The authors of this Backgrounder found that 97 of the...




					www.heritage.org


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> As of today CA has 61k cases per million
> TX has 62k cases per million
> FL has 63k cases per million.


Is this correct? If so, wow.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Is this correct? If so, wow.


It is correct.

The numbers get updated throughout the day. So what you see in the morning may change by evening.

So it really begs the question (s). 

CA has shut down hard. No school, university, no sports, severe biz restrictions and closings. 

For what? The CA plan was/is to stop the SPREAD of the virus. 

Take a look at the next 2 biggest states that have taken a decidedly different approach. 

Their cases per million are essentially the same as CA. 












						Coronavirus Update (Live): 137,240,920 Cases and 2,958,141 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 4, 2021)

"Government bureaucrats were caught flat-footed, and the flood of money being rushed out the door in the name of emergency meant more vulnerabilities than ever. It took many states more than six months to add verification requirements and partially stem the flow. Just to use one state as an example, Washington state usually identifies a few dozen fraudsters in a year—now, *it has identified more than 122,000 since March.*

“When you consider the policy factors accelerating benefits and getting them to the neediest people and the expanded $600 available … we had the perfect storm,” Washington Employment Security Department Commissioner Suzi Levine said. “[Scammers] have been lying in wait for this moment.”





__





						‘It’s Easy Money’: Nigerian Scammer Laughs about Huge Sums Stolen from COVID Welfare Programs in Bombshell Interview | Brad Polumbo
					

An astonishing $36 billion has been lost to fraud in pandemic unemployment benefits, the Department of Labor reports. ‘It’s easy money,’ one glib Nigerian scammer admitted to reporters.



					fee.org


----------



## whatithink (Jan 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "Government bureaucrats were caught flat-footed, and the flood of money being rushed out the door in the name of emergency meant more vulnerabilities than ever. It took many states more than six months to add verification requirements and partially stem the flow. Just to use one state as an example, Washington state usually identifies a few dozen fraudsters in a year—now, *it has identified more than 122,000 since March.*
> 
> “When you consider the policy factors accelerating benefits and getting them to the neediest people and the expanded $600 available … we had the perfect storm,” Washington Employment Security Department Commissioner Suzi Levine said. “[Scammers] have been lying in wait for this moment.”
> 
> ...


I agree. Congress should actively pursue the financial firms who allow the money laundering to take place. If that infrastructure didn't exist, then there's no way they could skim so much so quickly. Spread the web side enough and they would catch a lot of other launderers also.

BTW, the $36B is an estimate only and could be way over or way under.

I fucking hate these scammers.

I also fucking hate the enablers, i.e. the financial institutions who allow this to happen and continue to operate with impunity (minor wrist slaps aside) like HSBC and Deutsche Bank

Extract,
_Mobile banking and other online money-transfer apps have opened up new avenues for moving money around more easily. They allow access to accounts without anyone ever appearing in person – even avoiding cameras at ATMs – and offer debit cards that are easily moved on the black market. 

Scammers used Green Dot accounts to transfer funds in bulk in the Washington fraud, LeVine said. Mayowa, the scammer in Nigeria, said fraudsters also use Venmo, PayPal, Cash App and Walmart2Walmart to extract funds.

“Once those funds go to a Green Dot account, they’re often transferred through a series of movements into mules based in the U.S. probably, then moved offshore in two to three hops,” said Armen Najarian, chief identity officer of Agari, the security firm. _


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 4, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1345807170898636801


----------



## crush (Jan 5, 2021)

*China says Biden represents *'new window of hope'* for relations with US*
*Biden will* 'return to a sensible approach,' *Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said*

*Biden's Treasury Pick Yellen *Earned Millions* Speaking to Banks*


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 5, 2021)

If true, this is the whole ball of wax.....the Rona will never disappear, it becomes endemic like the flu, T-cell immunity will bring the death rate way down, but people will still die from it as an end of life event when they are old, everyone will get the Rona eventually, and every winter will be flu & Rona season.  Even if this just pans out as more fear porn, it's disturbing the virus is moving in this direction which makes it more like the ever changing flu, than one of the more stable pox viruses.





__





						UK scientists worry vaccines may not protect against S.African coronavirus variant
					

HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/BRITAIN-SOUTH AFRICA-VACCINE (UPDATE 4):UPDATE 4-UK scientists worry vaccines may not protect against S.African coronavirus variant




					news.trust.org


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 5, 2021)

I came across this one a day or so ago.


_Like the U.K. variant, the new strain discovered in South Africa, officially called 501Y.V2, involves multiple mutations inside the coronavirus at the same time.

“They both have multiple, different mutations in them, so they’re not a single mutation,” John Bell, a medicine professor at Oxford University, explained in Britain’s Times Radio on Sunday. “The mutations associated with the South African form are really pretty substantial changes in the structure of the (virus’ spike) protein.”

--

Scientists are still unsure whether existing vaccines are effective against these new mutations. While a related study is underway, Bell said his gut feeling was that Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines would still be effective against the U.K. strain, but he was less certain about the one identified in South Africa.

--

The South African variant was first detected on December 18. Preliminary studies suggest the variant is associated with “a higher viral load, which may suggest potential for increased transmissibility,” according to the World Health Organization. As of December 30, the variant had been reported in four other countries._









						As New COVID-19 Strain Attacks South Africa, Vaccine Experts Are ‘Incredibly Worried’
					

Scientists are uncertain that existing vaccines will be effective against this new mutation.




					observer.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If true, this is the whole ball of wax.....the Rona will never disappear, it becomes endemic like the flu, T-cell immunity will bring the death rate way down, but people will still die from it as an end of life event when they are old, everyone will get the Rona eventually, and every winter will be flu & Rona season.  Even if this just pans out as more fear porn, it's disturbing the virus is moving in this direction which makes it more like the ever changing flu, than one of the more stable pox viruses.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I personally don't think it will ever disappear. It is something we are going to have to live with. 

And by living with it...no masks, schools open, biz at full capacity, etc. We cannot keep doing what we are doing long term.


----------



## crush (Jan 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I personally don't think it will ever disappear. It is something we are going to have to live with.
> 
> And by living with it...no masks, schools open, biz at full capacity, etc. We cannot keep doing what we are doing long term.


----------



## Mad Hatter (Jan 5, 2021)

Terrifying Report: U.S. Funded Specific Research at Wuhan Lab that Led to Coronavirus
					

The World Health Organization is beginning an investigation into the scientific origins of the coronavirus.




					pjmedia.com


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 6, 2021)

Mad Hatter said:


> Terrifying Report: U.S. Funded Specific Research at Wuhan Lab that Led to Coronavirus
> 
> 
> The World Health Organization is beginning an investigation into the scientific origins of the coronavirus.
> ...


That would explain a lot......


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 6, 2021)

Mad Hatter said:


> Terrifying Report: U.S. Funded Specific Research at Wuhan Lab that Led to Coronavirus
> 
> 
> The World Health Organization is beginning an investigation into the scientific origins of the coronavirus.
> ...


So trump is responsible?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So trump is responsible?


Try reading......


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So trump is responsible?


Fauci and the other health experts...hence kickers “explains a lot”.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci and the other health experts...hence kickers “explains a lot”.


It is an ongoing problem with the Chinese as well. From the article.

"The WHO has been attempting to send in the team of global experts from a number of countries for some months."









						China blocks entry to WHO team studying Covid's origins
					

Officials say visas not yet approved for World Health Organization delegation due to visit Wuhan




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 6, 2021)

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Especially in light of how many public school systems have performed during the rona.

It is a good read.

_"Researchers can compare the academic performance of children who win the lottery and attend a charter with those who lose it and attend a traditional neighborhood school. Every lottery study has found charters produce overall learning gains for urban students. Many of those gains are huge, effectively wiping out the educational inequities that have persisted for the entire history of American schools."_

If you want to help the underserved.......

_"For years, perhaps the most devastating acronym in anti-charter sentiment was CREDO. The Center for Research on Education Outcomes at Stanford conducted a national survey in 2009 that compared the outcomes of similar kids (as measured by factors like family income) at charters and traditional public schools. The report found that charters were producing slightly worse outcomes than traditional public schools. If you’ve read much criticism of charters, you’ve probably seen a reference to the study, which skeptics have treated as the final word. But its conclusions have long since ceased to be true. Another CREDO study four years later found the sector had improved, and in 2015, a survey focused on charters in urban districts, where education reformers have concentrated their energies (and where gains have outpaced suburban and rural areas). It found urban charters on average *gave their students the equivalent of 40 additional school days of learning in math and 28 additional days of learning in reading every year. *CREDO’s studies confirm the conclusion that the lottery studies have found: In most cases, urban charters now provide the same group of students much better instruction."_



			https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/01/unlearning-democrats-answer-on-charter-schools.html


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 6, 2021)

And continuing the above....

_"The final element of charters’ formula is inescapably controversial. They *prioritize the welfare of their students over those of their employees*, which means paying teachers based on effectiveness rather than how long they’ve been on the job — and being able to fire the worst ones."_


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 6, 2021)

Charter parent here, (at one point both kids were in Charter, but the oldest is not anymore,) and we've been nothing but pleased. My youngest had some significant (life threatening,) health issues and they bent over backwards to help keep him learning as best he could. 

I'm not sure how/where it started, (nor do I care,) but at one point a large grip was that their teachers don't have to be credentialed- that was a complete lie for our school. There is also a huge backlash against the lottery-type system. People saying they can exclude those with special needs. Again, not true, especially at the campuses we're familiar with.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 6, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Charter parent here, (at one point both kids were in Charter, but the oldest is not anymore,) and we've been nothing but pleased. My youngest had some significant (life threatening,) health issues and they bent over backwards to help keep him learning as best he could.
> 
> I'm not sure how/where it started, (nor do I care,) but at one point a large grip was that their teachers don't have to be credentialed- that was a complete lie for our school. There is also a huge backlash against the lottery-type system. People saying they can exclude those with special needs. Again, not true, especially at the campuses we're familiar with.


My kids are at a charter as well. Night and day vs the public school they were in previously. One that was ranked as one of the best in AZ for that matter.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And then you have the shenanigans at public schools.
> 
> I think one of the problems public schools have is that they don't focus so much on education. They focus on the latest fads, social justice, etc instead of focusing on the basics....actual teaching the kids the basics...math, reading, etc.
> 
> ...


So true. And it takes an act of god for anyone to be disciplined! The bullying I've heard of happening in some of the public schools, (who then just got hands slapped, if that,) is mind boggling.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 6, 2021)

And then you have the shenanigans at public schools.

I think one of the problems public schools have is that they don't focus so much on education. They focus on the latest fads, social justice, etc instead of focusing on the basics....actually teaching the kids the basics...math, reading, etc.

The way they taught math was beyond frustrating. Actually making it more difficult. And reading? Why schools have moved away from phonetics to sight words is beyond me. One system teaches you how to read words you have not encountered. The other doesn't provide you any tools to do so.










						Radicalism in San Diego Schools | City Journal
					

San Diego’s school district tells white teachers that they are guilty of “spirit murdering” black children and should undergo “antiracist therapy.”




					www.city-journal.org


----------



## dad4 (Jan 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And then you have the shenanigans at public schools.
> 
> I think one of the problems public schools have is that they don't focus so much on education. They focus on the latest fads, social justice, etc instead of focusing on the basics....actually teaching the kids the basics...math, reading, etc.
> 
> ...


Phonics is boring for the teacher.   

Who wants to spend 6 hours a day immersed in instruction appropriate for a 5 year old?

Whole language instruction lets the teacher pick books _she_ likes.  Why say "kuh ah tuh" when you could be reading Mo Willems?

Of course, 1 on 1 phonics with mom or dad actually works.  But that's a side point, really.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 7, 2021)

This is beyond outrageous.  75+ year olds (the group mostly likely to die of COVID) likely don't get vaccinated until mid march at least according to VC health authorities.  Meanwhile doctors in private offices, hotel workers, dentists, and DAs, even if young and healthy, get vaccinated???  California is seriously run by morons.  No wonder the AMA was lobbying Newsom at French laundry.  









						County says it’s provided 13,000 vaccines in 3 weeks
					

FIRST PHASE—An employee of University Village of Thousand Oaks receives the COVID-19 vaccine last week. Residents and staff of longterm care facilities are part of the first wave of people to receive the vaccine. Next up: clinics and surgery centers, among others. Courtesy photo Nearly 13,000 of...




					www.toacorn.com


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is beyond outrageous.  75+ year olds (the group mostly likely to die of COVID) likely don't get vaccinated until mid march at least according to VC health authorities.  Meanwhile doctors in private offices, hotel workers, dentists, and DAs, even if young and healthy, get vaccinated???  California is seriously run by morons.  No wonder the AMA was lobbying Newsom at French laundry.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


60+ represents 74.5% of California’s mortality and that number continues to climb (it was 71% back in October)....The narrative has been, people are dying (que the “how many people have to die so Sally can play soccer” argument)...so why not target that category of the population to vaccinate?  Same reasonI question why they didn’t have a proactive plan to increase ICU capacity while they are warning everyone a Winter surge is coming since July?

I’m open to hearing some valid reasons.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 7, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is beyond outrageous.  75+ year olds (the group mostly likely to die of COVID) likely don't get vaccinated until mid march at least according to VC health authorities.  Meanwhile doctors in private offices, hotel workers, dentists, and DAs, even if young and healthy, get vaccinated???  California is seriously run by morons.  No wonder the AMA was lobbying Newsom at French laundry.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And that sums up gov in a nutshell.

It is why I am adamantly opposed to a government run health care system for all.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Same reason they didn’t have a proactive plan to increase ICU capacity while they are warning everyone a Winter surge is coming.


Inept. 

And politics gets in the way of good decisions


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Inept.
> 
> And politics gets in the way of good decisions


I added to my post.....but your response is still valid


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 7, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> 60+ represents 74.5% of California’s mortality and that number continues to climb (it was 71% back in October)....The narrative has been, people are dying (que the “how many people have to die so Sally can play soccer” argument)...so why not target that category of the population to vaccinate?  Same reasonI question why they didn’t have a proactive plan to increase ICU capacity while they are warning everyone a Winter surge is coming since July?
> 
> I’m open to hearing some valid reasons.


They should absolutely be prioritizing the real at risk group. Data wise there is no good reason not to.

Vaccinate this age group and the vast majority of deaths associated with Covid goes away.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 7, 2021)

Just speculation on my part, but if the death rate remains the same (and it will if they really wait until March to start vaccinated 75+ year olds), and if the pace of vaccinations continues the same in California, we won't be out of purple in most of SoCal til march so it probably means (if everything else remains the same), we aren't playing until summer at the absolute earliest.  Also, with teachers then not scheduled until April, the entire school year is a bust for those still on remote.  Again, if everything remains unchanged.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> 60+ represents 74.5% of California’s mortality and that number continues to climb (it was 71% back in October)....The narrative has been, people are dying (que the “how many people have to die so Sally can play soccer” argument)...so why not target that category of the population to vaccinate?  Same reasonI question why they didn’t have a proactive plan to increase ICU capacity while they are warning everyone a Winter surge is coming since July?
> 
> I’m open to hearing some valid reasons.


They don't lack mattresses.  They lack nurses.

Increasing ICU nurse capacity is difficult and slow.  You have to train people.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> They don't lack mattresses.  They lack nurses.
> 
> Increasing ICU nurse capacity is difficult and slow.  You have to train people.


They have had 9 months to train people.  True, it's impossible to get brand new doctors and brand new nurses in that time so there would still be a shortage but there's plenty of stuff they could have done to aleviate the situation if it's such an emergency.  They didn't.  Too afraid of the optics of empty tent hospitals.


----------



## espola (Jan 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They have had 9 months to train people.  True, it's impossible to get brand new doctors and brand new nurses in that time so there would still be a shortage but there's plenty of stuff they could have done to aleviate the situation if it's such an emergency.  They didn't.  Too afraid of the optics of empty tent hospitals.


Coocoo.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 7, 2021)

espola said:


> Coocoo.



Nonsense.....welcome back my nonsensical amigo.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> They don't lack mattresses.  They lack nurses.
> 
> Increasing ICU nurse capacity is difficult and slow.  You have to train people.


Ummmmm yes, I know.  Would kinda makes sense that Staffing would be a KEY part of the planning process.  They are just now launching a recruiting campaign to hire more nurses.....over 2 months AFTER the surge started 5+ months AFTER they’ve been warning the public about it. Building capacity is the easy part. They showed that in March.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 7, 2021)

espola said:


> Coocoo.


Maybe coup, coup - in keeping with the situation.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They have had 9 months to train people.  True, it's impossible to get brand new doctors and brand new nurses in that time so there would still be a shortage but there's plenty of stuff they could have done to aleviate the situation if it's such an emergency.  They didn't.  Too afraid of the optics of empty tent hospitals.


Train new nurses?  You must be kidding.

We can't even do a decent vaccine rollout.  Or manufacture cheap blown plastic masks.

Lucky we aren't in a war.  Our soldiers would be tripping all over the place because we forgot how to make shoelaces.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 8, 2021)

Reports are circulating Biden is going to order the release of all the stockpile of vaccine (instead of holding back second doses) and revise guidelines overturning the NY/CA type rules prohibiting giving vaccines out of order.  If so Mr. President-Elect I heartily approve.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Reports are circulating Biden is going to order the release of all the stockpile of vaccine (instead of holding back second doses) and revise guidelines overturning the NY/CA type rules prohibiting giving vaccines out of order.  If so Mr. President-Elect I heartily approve.


Let's get this show on the road.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 8, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Let's get this show on the road.


Fauci is fighting him on it.  Already is being critical in the press.  It may be an "only Nixon could go to China" moment since Trump couldn't overrule Fauci.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 8, 2021)

Some of the top contenders have been announced....


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 8, 2021)

Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine appears effective against mutation in new coronavirus variants -study
					

Pfizer Inc and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine appears able to protect against a key mutation in the highly transmissible new variants of the coronavirus discovered in Britain and South Africa, according to a laboratory study conducted by the U.S. drugmaker.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 8, 2021)

The Next Phase of Vaccination Will Be Even Harder
					

Getting vaccines to hospitals and nursing homes was supposed to be the easy part.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 8, 2021)

Ny has had to throw away vaccine doses.  In California, the by job system has led to several people being vaccinated that shouldn't have been that I personally know of including: a) a social worker working from home virtually (does not make house calls), b) 2 telemarketers working from home in their 30s, and c) a small business owner in her 40s whos business is closed.  Just do it by age....vaccinate as many people as you can.









						Cuomo Widens Eligibility After Vaccine Goes Unused or Is Even Thrown Out (Published 2021)
					

Three million more people will be permitted to schedule vaccinations, including those 75 and older, as the campaign in New York gets off to a dispiriting start.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Reports are circulating Biden is going to order the release of all the stockpile of vaccine (instead of holding back second doses) and revise guidelines overturning the NY/CA type rules prohibiting giving vaccines out of order.  If so Mr. President-Elect I heartily approve.


Is that against Fauci’s recommendation?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Is that against Fauci’s recommendation?


The FDA's/CDC's recommendations.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 8, 2021)

My spec ed teacher friend just told me they got the order the county of LA is suspending all on campus activities until "at least Feb. 1" including high risk/spec ed learners.  OS's religious school though still plans to go full reopening (I suspect they have a settlement but the transparency there has been lacking).


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My spec ed teacher friend just told me they got the order the county of LA is suspending all on campus activities until "at least Feb. 1" including high risk/spec ed learners.  OS's religious school though still plans to go full reopening (I suspect they have a settlement but the transparency there has been lacking).


Is/was LA county back on campus? Even partially?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 8, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Is/was LA county back on campus? Even partially?


Special ed and at risk students

Elementary schools operating under waivers (both private/public)

Sports "camps".

And potentially (I can't get a straight answer on why they think they can reopen) religious middle/high schools....can't figure out if they have a settlement which exempts them from this or if they are just defying county orders on the grounds they are religious.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Special ed and at risk students
> 
> Elementary schools operating under waivers (both private/public)
> 
> ...


Ah, ok. Gotcha. Meanwhile, not only are we hybrid but soon we're all back on campus, not even in cohorts, come March. Makes no sense!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 8, 2021)

This is Kevin Greyson of Athens, Alabama. Mr. Greyson died in the capital building during his attempt to overthrow our democracy. How did he die? He was attempting to steal a picture of Tip O’Neal when his own stun-gun fired in his front pocket. While electrocuting his own testicles, Mr. Greyson also suffered a heart attack and died on the scene. Under the feet of his other rabid insurrectionist traitors, with Tip O’Neal looming still oh-so-large over him. I sure hope Trump was worth it to him.


----------



## notintheface (Jan 9, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347610287218843652
Far be it from me to take humor in someone else's demise, but holy fuck is that funny.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 9, 2021)

vc is 3rd worst county in California. Cases are concentrated largely in the west portion of the county (Ventura/Oxnard) which is heavily Hispanic.  Hypothesis: reason why it’s spreading in these areas (as opposed to Conejo, Camarillo, simi suburbs of la) is because people in the west portion are working.  If you work not only can you catch it at work, but if you work you think it’s ok to socialize (see Tom cruise rant) and you need childcare.  The lockdowns are thus not only ineffective they are not equitable.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 9, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 9, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 9, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 9, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 9, 2021)

And last one for today.

Now we can go back to bad news covid info.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 10, 2021)

An excellent thread.  Further idiocy from out health experts.  They should approve the AZ vaccine right away....prioritize it for everyone under 65....save the Pfizer/Moderna for everyone 65+ and health care workers.  Idiocy.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1348293766063525890


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 10, 2021)

Newsom is a moron.  He and Cuomo are in a race for worst governor....








						Newsom Defends California Business Climate, Status of the Rich
					

Gov. Gavin Newsom forcefully pushed back Friday on criticisms that California is becoming unfriendly for business, pointing to “all the new billionaires” created by initial public offerings and noting that its richest people are “doing pretty damn well.” The Democratic governor’s comments came...




					www.nbclosangeles.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Newsom is a moron.  He and Cuomo are in a race for worst governor....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


When we are looking at a president that tried to overthrow our government, and may still do worse, you worry about that? Lol! WTF?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> When we are looking at a president that tried to overthrow our government, and may still do worse, you worry about that? Lol! WTF?


Some of us are capable of doing more things at once.  Trump should resign...Newsom's got to go too and Cuomo.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Some of us are capable of doing more things at once.  Trump should resign...Newsom's got to go too and Cuomo.


A politician defending his own policies? Lol! You believe trump.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> A politician defending his own policies? Lol! You believe trump.


Nah.  Incompetence of the highest form.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nah.  Incompetence of the highest form.


Your opinion of course.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 10, 2021)

It's beginning to look like my friend was right and LA County peaked just before New Years.  It's hard to say for sure given the testing drops and surges during the holidays.  The daily positives top out at 12-29 at almost 27K but testing also tops off that day.  The percentage of positive tests though has been dropping, having peaked at 1-1 with 23.9%.  The 7 day daily average (at least for those days we have complete figures) is still rising.  We'll know more at the end of this week as the remaining days of last week get updated and as we see what happens this week.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 10, 2021)

If those continues rolling outbreaks into 2021 and 2022.  This is consistent with the thoughts of the few big pharma presentations I've seen.










						'I'm not an anti-vaxxer, but...' US health workers' vaccine hesitancy raises alarm
					

With up to 40% of frontline workers in LA county refusing Covid-19 inoculation experts warn that understanding and persuasion are needed




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 10, 2021)

For the other disaster state, it looks like NY is deliberately trying to kill seniors at this point.  My parents still use AOL, can barely email or answer online forms, and they want them to upload attachments and scan stuff. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1348464494108954626
If California does something similar, they'll probably just give it to my kids to figure out.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For the other disaster state, it looks like NY is deliberately trying to kill seniors at this point.  My parents still use AOL, can barely email or answer online forms, and they want them to upload attachments and scan stuff.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1348464494108954626
> If California does something similar, they'll probably just give it to my kids to figure out.


Ugh. Is this the only way to get a vaccine? If so, I'd have to think this process would perpetuate the underserved communities being underserved for vaccine access as well.  What's wrong with just using a driver's license with a photo on it and an insurance card if you have one?


----------



## tenacious (Jan 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For the other disaster state, it looks like NY is deliberately trying to kill seniors at this point.  My parents still use AOL, can barely email or answer online forms, and they want them to upload attachments and scan stuff.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1348464494108954626
> If California does something similar, they'll probably just give it to my kids to figure out.


Lol... a 51 question online test to get a vaccine.

The problem isn't so much the Gov in this case.  Race relations are a huge political issue in NYC, and from what I've heard there was concern that if they just focused on seniors (who are disproportionately white) that is would be unfair to other minority groups. So they came up with a way to make sure that the distribution of the vaccine reflected the diversity of the city.  And it's a diverse city- so this is no small task as the 51 questions indicates.

So yes, not that many people are getting vaccinated with all the hoops city officials are jumping through- but the lucky few that do get it aren't just old white people.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 11, 2021)

tenacious said:


> Race relations are a huge political issue in NYC, and from what I've heard there was concern that if they just focused on seniors (who are disproportionately white) that is would be unfair to other minority groups.


That is because the politicians make it so. 

They should focus on the most vulnerable. And if in NYC that happens to be a lot of white people so be it. They are the at risk group. If the at risk group in NYC happened to be mainly Puerto Rican...they should be first in line. Or if Asian, etc. 

The thing to do is to focus on the AGE groups at risk AND the individuals who have health issues that put them at risk. 

The fact that politicians there an in other places wonder about the racial makeup of the at risk groups is telling and BS. 

Give it to the people who need it.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 11, 2021)

Andrew Cuomo is all over the place.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1348673192609591296


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 11, 2021)

Canadian expert's research finds lockdown harms are 10 times greater than benefits
					

Dr. Ari Joffe is a specialist in pediatric infectious diseases at the Stollery Children’s Hospital in Edmonton and a Clinical Professor in the Department of…




					torontosun.com


----------



## blam (Jan 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Canadian expert's research finds lockdown harms are 10 times greater than benefits
> 
> 
> Dr. Ari Joffe is a specialist in pediatric infectious diseases at the Stollery Children’s Hospital in Edmonton and a Clinical Professor in the Department of…
> ...



Lockdown works if it is truly a lockdown. What we had in California is not a lockdown. It is just selective closure of schools, restaurant and other small businesses and a lot of work from home.

A true lockdown is when people are only allowed out of their homes on certain days. Police roadblocks to fine people who are out and about who should not be out etc. etc. which means also effective enforcement exist. 

Wuhan did a real lockdown and they were back to normal after 3 months. People were going around without any mask since summer.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Canadian expert's research finds lockdown harms are 10 times greater than benefits
> 
> 
> Dr. Ari Joffe is a specialist in pediatric infectious diseases at the Stollery Children’s Hospital in Edmonton and a Clinical Professor in the Department of…
> ...


So if I understand correctly he looked at the DATA and adjusted his opinion of what to do. What a novel idea.

_"First, initial data falsely suggested that the infection fatality rate was up to 2-3%, that over 80% of the population would be infected, and modelling suggested repeated lockdowns would be necessary. But emerging data showed that the *median infection fatality rate is 0.23%*, that the median infection fatality rate in people under 70 years old *is 0.05%*, and that the high-risk group is older people especially those with severe co-morbidities."

"Third, a formal cost-benefit analysis of different responses to the pandemic was not done by government or public health experts. Initially, *I simply assumed that lockdowns to suppress the pandemic were the best approach*. But policy decisions on public health should require a cost-benefit analysis. Since lockdowns are a public health intervention, aiming to improve the population wellbeing, we must consider both benefits of lockdowns, and costs of lockdowns on the population wellbeing. *Once I became more informed,* I realized that lockdowns cause far more harm than they prevent."_

Now...where have I heard this talked about before?

_"*We should focus on protecting people at high risk:* people hospitalized or in nursing homes (e.g., universal masking in hospitals reduced transmission markedly), in crowded conditions (e.g., homeless shelters, prisons, large gatherings), and 70 years and older (especially with severe comorbidities) – *don’t lock down everyone, regardless of their individual risk.*"_

By the way I notice the pro lockdown/pro mask people have become very quiet in recent weeks as CA has gone south. It is almost as if the preferred solutions have not had the desired affect, and they don't know what to do or say.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 11, 2021)

CDC: Severe allergic reaction to COVID-19 vaccine ‘exceedingly rare.’


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 11, 2021)

Looks like it will be mandatory for Los Angeles students.....









						L.A. students must get COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available for them, Beutner says
					

L.A. schools Supt. Austin Beutner said students would have to be vaccinated to return to campus once a vaccine is available for them. But that doesn't rule out an earlier return in the meantime.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 11, 2021)

70% of those over 60 in Israel have been vaccinated with the first dose.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like it will be mandatory for Los Angeles students.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Notice the subtle goalshifting...vaccinated teachers might still bring back the virus home.  Well, if that's the case then teachers teaching remotely shouldn't be prioritized over 60+.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 12, 2021)

blam said:


> Lockdown works if it is truly a lockdown. What we had in California is not a lockdown. It is just selective closure of schools, restaurant and other small businesses and a lot of work from home.
> 
> A true lockdown is when people are only allowed out of their homes on certain days. Police roadblocks to fine people who are out and about who should not be out etc. etc. which means also effective enforcement exist.
> 
> Wuhan did a real lockdown and they were back to normal after 3 months. People were going around without any mask since summer.


It amazes me that people just got through getting livid about trump trying to subvert the constitution by overturning his election and his supporters trying to seize the capitol and you want to go around overturning the constitution (by suspending the first amendment rights to speech and assemble, not to mention the fourth, and the individual rights of the states) chinese style to get authoritarian lockdown. It is pretty self evident the far left is totalitarian


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 12, 2021)

La county now saying people should wear masks indoors (24/7) in their own homes if they live with someone elderly or vulnerable. Or, like Israel Florida West Virginia the dakotas you know you could just prioritize getting the vaccine to the 65+ instead of das dentists private doctors judges 

incidentally my younger bro explained to me the reason for prioritizing the justice system is because there’s already a huge backlog of trials they need to get moving. So apparently they plan to suck all of us prevaccination into jury duty so they can get that calendar moving


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 12, 2021)

Any chance Newsome tries this killer idea?

Not sure why the state of CA hasn't done this already.









						Council recruits men with TV strapped over head to warn about lockdown
					

The bizarre move saw staff and volunteers pound the streets of Bradford, Yorkshire, with TVs hoisted on their shoulders showing coronavirus rules.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 12, 2021)

The Rona is moving up the coast.....









						Coronavirus surges up the coast: Ventura, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara now hit hard
					

Coronavirus cases have surged in Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, where demand for ICU beds could overwhelm the region's supply.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The Rona is moving up the coast.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Funny how the virus just does its thing. Sometimes it just takes longer to do its damage in certain areas/regions. 

Germany was another place where for months we were told nailed the approach. Beginning of Nov they were still hanging around 10k deaths. Then as the virus spiked there, like pretty much everywhere else in the N Hemisphere, the numbers started going south.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 12, 2021)

__





						Early Results Suggest Pfizer Vaccine Will Work Against Coronavirus Mutations
					

The COVID-19 vaccine from pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and BioNTech looks to be effective against 16 different mutations of the coronavirus, according to a study that has not yet undergone peer review.




					www.sciencealert.com
				












						An augmented immune response explains the adverse course of COVID-19 in patients with hypertension
					

COVID-19 patients who also suffer from high blood pressure are more likely to fall severely ill with the disease, which also leaves them at greater risk of death. Scientists from the Berlin Institute of Health (BIH) and Charité–Universitätsmedizin Berlin, in collaboration with partners in...




					medicalxpress.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 12, 2021)

My folks have both signed the recall petition in the last week.  Didn't think they would.  My dad is a life long D....he's poed that California isn't getting the vaccine to those who most need it (age 65+) first after front line health care workers and nursing home people.  My Mom (a Romney anti-trump R) too...French laundry was what set her off but she didn't want to go to the bother of signing it until it showed up in the mail at their doorstep.  My uncle (a Sanders D) also signed it, for the same reasons as my father, plus he was assured that if we did purple plus things would get better but our county seems to almost be the national hot spot.  Home town shout out also in the article.









						‘It’s all fallen apart’: Newsom scrambles to save California — and his career
					

The Democrat leading the nation’s biggest state is facing a raging pandemic, vaccine distribution problems and a nascent recall drive.




					www.politico.com


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My folks have both signed the recall petition in the last week.  Didn't think they would.  My dad is a life long D....he's poed that California isn't getting the vaccine to those who most need it (age 65+) first after front line health care workers and nursing home people.  My Mom (a Romney anti-trump R) too...French laundry was what set her off but she didn't want to go to the bother of signing it until it showed up in the mail at their doorstep.  My uncle (a Sanders D) also signed it, for the same reasons as my father, plus he was assured that if we did purple plus things would get better but our county seems to almost be the national hot spot.  Home town shout out also in the article.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This article makes a lot of excuses for his lack of knowledge on how to lead any part of this state. I almost would say it is flattering to someone who has failed so significantly. He has ignored calls from so many different groups on many different issues. Whether it is the lockdowns, taxes, unemployment insurance, youth sports, homeless crises, lose of large corporations, rolling black outs, fires, opening schools, you name it and he has screwed it up. All while smirking at the camera and telling all who will listen in his press conferences that he follows data and science. He follows money and political ideology and besides his good hair doesn’t have any redeeming qualities needed to be governor. I hope this has ruined any political future he thought he had and that he spends the rest of his life thinking about the suffering he caused through his horrible policies.


----------



## MARsSPEED (Jan 12, 2021)

Fact - every year more deaths are recorded in the months of December, January, and February than any other time of the year. 

Fact - In 2018, the US had about 2.84 million deaths

Fact - Every year, total deaths go up by 50k to 60k people, i.e. projected total for 2020  before CoVid was 2.95 million

Fact - In 2020, roughly 3.10 million passed. 

Fact - Excess deaths are only 150,000. One could say that is all Covid, others could argue some of those deaths can be suicide, depression and other illness.

So, in summary, excess deaths are half of what you are really being told. All of this data can be found on the CDC website. Nothing here is from fake news sources.

Carry on!

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm 
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm 








						Number of deaths per year
					

The dotted line shows the medium variant of the UN population projections.




					ourworldindata.org


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 12, 2021)

I thought they were quarantined already (as in locked up). Or did they sneak out and get some wings at a nearby tavern?









						Folkspaper - Two Gorillas at the San Diego Safari Park Have Tested Positive for COVID-19, First Case Among Great Apes
					

Two gorillas at a zoo in California have tested positive for COVID-19, in what is believed to be the first known cases of the virus among great apes in the United States and possibly the rest of ...




					www.folkspaper.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 12, 2021)

Keep em stupid and they may grow to vote the way they are supposed to.









						Chicago Teachers Union Plans to Mobilize Against Reopening Schools
					

The Chicago Teachers Union announced a mobilization effort against a plan to reopen the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) for in-person learning.




					www.breitbart.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 12, 2021)

Watch various tax increases and fee increases as states, counties and municipalities try to fix the big hole in their budgets due to the shutdowns.









						Businesses struggling with pandemic could be on hook for $500M tax increase
					

Illinois businesses hit by losses because of government COVID-19 restrictions could collectively be on the hook for half-a-billion dollars in tax liabilities if Gov. J.B. Pritzker gets his way. There’s growing opposition.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 12, 2021)

__





						6.7 million COVID Vaccines Given in U.S. With 70% of Available Doses Unused
					





					www.msn.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I thought they were quarantined already (as in locked up). Or did they sneak out and get some wings at a nearby tavern?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Did they draw straws to determine which guy had to stick the q-tip up the gorilla's nose?


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Watch various tax increases and fee increases as states, counties and municipalities try to fix the big hole in their budgets due to the shutdowns.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It is amazing. When people don’t earn enough money to pay for the things they want they cut back. Whether it is they lose their home or can’t afford to eat out or whatever it is. Our government today never cuts back on any program. Everything they do is thought of as must haves. I heard the other day California has unfunded liabilities in the form of pension promises in the trillions. This state is basically bankrupt but will not cut anything. Let’s stop building the speed train for our first cut. I bet it wouldn’t be hard for anyone with common sense to cut billions from this states budget. The tax and spending happening in this state is unsustainable. I am not sure how long the state government can keep this shell game going.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 12, 2021)

The Ventura County vaccine website has crashed because there's no verification process for an approved profession to receive the vaccine.  So many people who shouldn't be registered have registered it's unlikely that old people will be able to get on again until February-March.  So my Dad is registered to receive it next week (as an active physician) but my mom (who let her license expired) will likely now need to wait for months.  Once again, nice job California!


----------



## N00B (Jan 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The Ventura County vaccine website has crashed because there's no verification process for an approved profession to receive the vaccine.  So many people who shouldn't be registered have registered it's unlikely that old people will be able to get on again until February-March.  So my Dad is registered to receive it next week (as an active physician) but my mom (who let her license expired) will likely now need to wait for months.  Once again, nice job California!


Send them to San Diego.  We have a senior care facility advertising advanced vaccine availability for new residents and a mass vaccination site open for all associated with health care (volunteers included).


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 13, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> Fact - every year more deaths are recorded in the months of December, January, and February than any other time of the year.
> 
> Fact - In 2018, the US had about 2.84 million deaths
> 
> ...


2019 was roughly 2.94m


----------



## MARsSPEED (Jan 13, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> 2019 was roughly 2.94m


Interesting, so deaths went up by 100k. That would mean 3.10 million would be almost normal.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 13, 2021)

Glad to see that they are finally listening to me .

"The state is transforming baseball stadiums, fairgrounds and even a Disneyland Resort parking lot into mass vaccination sites."

While some are reluctant, we need to take advantage of those folks who want the vaccine ASAP. Don't worry so much about upfront administration/forms/sign ups. Bring your driver's license for proof of age and insurance card if you have one and line up. Give the vaccine until you run out. Give those who waited and didn't get a shot a higher priority for the next round. I have no first-hand knowledge, but the feeling I get is that too much time is being spent trying to organize the process. Put the inconvenience on people who want the vaccine. It's the government and it's a huge undertaking. People will understand and expect it.









						California has the most vaccines of any US state; it has used only 27% of them
					

California ranks 42nd in terms of its rate of vaccine distribution.




					www.sfgate.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 13, 2021)

Video: Trader Joe’s manager shuts down horde of anti-mask Karens with remarkable calm
					

A Trader Joe's manager demonstrated remarkable composure when he tactfully shut down a horde of anti-mask Karens trying to enter the store.




					www.dailydot.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 13, 2021)

"A new peer-reviewed study from the American Academy of Pediatrics found that in-school transmission of COVID-19 is "extremely rare."

In a collaborative study between Duke University and the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, researchers discovered that among 11 school districts with nearly 100,000 staff and students, there were no instances of children passing the coronavirus to adults during in-person instruction. Researchers found just 32 cases of either kid-to-kid or adult-to-adult coronavirus transmission over nine weeks."









						New Study Finds COVID Transmission in Schools Is 'Extremely Rare' - Washington Free Beacon
					

A new peer-reviewed study from the American Academy of Pediatrics found that in-school transmission of the coronavirus is "extremely rare."




					freebeacon.com
				



"


----------



## blam (Jan 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It amazes me that people just got through getting livid about trump trying to subvert the constitution by overturning his election and his supporters trying to seize the capitol and you want to go around overturning the constitution (by suspending the first amendment rights to speech and assemble, not to mention the fourth, and the individual rights of the states) chinese style to get authoritarian lockdown. It is pretty self evident the far left is totalitarian


Whoa...my response was not even political. My point was that lockdown works if you actually lockdown. In China, all was back to normal after 3 months of strict lockdown.  In CA, we just have restrictions, not a lockdown which affects school children and small businesses the most. If it doesnt work, then we should just say that restrictions dont work and not claim that we had a lockdown.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 13, 2021)

blam said:


> Whoa...my response was not even political. My point was that lockdown works if you actually lockdown. In China, all was back to normal after 3 months of strict lockdown.  In CA, we just have restrictions, not a lockdown which affects school children and small businesses the most. If it doesnt work, then we should just say that restrictions dont work and not claim that we had a lockdown.


That's fine but then we are back to nothing really works, at least given that we are: a) not prepare to suspend the constitution, or b) not an island that was lucky enough to catch it early, close our borders and keep it out.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 13, 2021)

blam said:


> Whoa...my response was not even political. My point was that lockdown works if you actually lockdown. In China, all was back to normal after 3 months of strict lockdown.  In CA, we just have restrictions, not a lockdown which affects school children and small businesses the most. If it doesnt work, then we should just say that restrictions dont work and not claim that we had a lockdown.


Ummm...I work with a lot of people in China and one of my factories was just closed for a week due to Covid and another (in a different region) spoke of new restrictions.  

Although other areas seem to be operating as normal.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 13, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Ummm...I work with a lot of people in China and one of my factories was just closed for a week due to Covid and another (in a different region) spoke of new restrictions.
> 
> Although other areas seem to be operating as normal.


Hey Kicker, isn't China already rolling out it's vaccine (though supposedly it's only 50% effective)?


----------



## blam (Jan 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's fine but then we are back to nothing really works, at least given that we are: a) not prepare to suspend the constitution, or b) not an island that was lucky enough to catch it early, close our borders and keep it out.


None of this is unconstitutional.

Government can take away your free speech or your guns or hold you down and it can  be constitutional.

Government can exercise that and infringed directly on your right because the constitution also gave the government the duty to protect its citizens.

What you have is a contradiction in the law. you have a right, the government also has a constitutional duty and it can only execute that duty if it infringes on your right. Who wins?

If you challenge that you go to the Supreme Court where the justices will apply different strunity levels depending on what is being challenged. If the government can show that it did that and infringed on your right but it is narrowly tailored, it explored other means etc etc. The court will almost always then rule for the government.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 13, 2021)

blam said:


> Whoa...my response was not even political. My point was that lockdown works if you actually lockdown. In China, all was back to normal after 3 months of strict lockdown.  In CA, we just have restrictions, not a lockdown which affects school children and small businesses the most. If it doesnt work, then we should just say that restrictions dont work and not claim that we had a lockdown.


Well put.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's fine but then we are back to nothing really works, at least given that we are: a) not prepare to suspend the constitution, or b) not an island that was lucky enough to catch it early, close our borders and keep it out.


A. The Constitution contains nothing that would preclude government from implementing a lockdown to protect the citizenry due to health reasons i.e. a pandemic. And B is laughable coming from a trump apologist.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "A new peer-reviewed study from the American Academy of Pediatrics found that in-school transmission of COVID-19 is "extremely rare."
> 
> In a collaborative study between Duke University and the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, researchers discovered that among 11 school districts with nearly 100,000 staff and students, there were no instances of children passing the coronavirus to adults during in-person instruction. Researchers found just 32 cases of either kid-to-kid or adult-to-adult coronavirus transmission over nine weeks."
> 
> ...


The "stay at home order" failure in CA has gotten so bad the only "ones" remaining here that are advocating for it are Easy On The Lotion and his many personas.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 13, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The "stay at home order" failure in CA has gotten so bad the only "ones" remaining here that are advocating for it are Easy On The Lotion and his many personas.


Easy on the lotion. Now that is funny


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Hey Kicker, isn't China already rolling out it's vaccine (though supposedly it's only 50% effective)?


Yes


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 13, 2021)

blam said:


> What you have is a contradiction in the law. you have a right, the government also has a constitutional duty and it can only execute that duty if it infringes on your right. Who wins?


The side with the most guns because that's pretty much what you would trigger and not only from the right but also the left. 

 Remember we had the BLM/Antifa protests in April/May.  That was the 1 event (well, besides things like the Lightfoot or Pelosi haircuts or other politicians carving out exceptions for themselves). that shattered the consensus on lockdowns.  The right to protest is protected by the First Amendment.  So, the government would have been forced to violently suppress the protests and keep people in their houses (as they did in Australia).  If the government made exceptions for these protests, everyone else would have wanted exceptions for their activities (and by law you have to treat at least worship or R protesting the same).  

And before you say oh well we'd just use the military to enforce it....remember in California the big problem from a lockdowner point of view is the Sheriffs have said no thanks to enforcing things like mask mandates on the beach.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 13, 2021)

Both sides really have gone insane....









						Rantz: Union head says opening schools is 'white supremacy,' suicide concern 'white privilege'
					

A teacher's union president claims reopening schools for in-person learning is an example of "white supremacy" and compares it to following rioters into the U.S. Capitol.



					mynorthwest.com


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 13, 2021)

Probably not surprising, still sad nonetheless.









						Concerns about violence increase in California amid COVID-19 pandemic
					

Study finds that people in California are more worried about violence during COVID-19 pandemic.




					health.ucdavis.edu


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Both sides really have gone insane....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Wow, that's quite an argument.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Wow, that's quite an argument.


So for some state’s Teachers Unions, it’s either a sign of White Supremacy/White Privilege to want to REOPEN Schools or we need to Defund the Policy, Eliminate Charter Schools and Provide Universal Healthcare in order to REOPEN schools for any type of in person learning.  

Yet the science, most other States, Private Schools and virtually every other Country are in some form of In Person learning environment.  

But this isn’t political, so I wonder what it is?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So for some state’s Teachers Unions, it’s either a sign of White Supremacy/White Privilege to want to REOPEN Schools or we need to Defund the Policy, Eliminate Charter Schools and Provide Universal Healthcare in order to REOPEN schools for any type of in person learning.
> 
> Yet the science, most other States, Private Schools and virtually every other Country are in some form of In Person learning environment.
> 
> But this isn’t political, so I wonder what it is?


Irrationality is a human condition - neither conservative nor liberal. When people want to believe in something strongly enough, they will justify it, rationality be damned.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Irrationality is a human condition - neither conservative nor liberal. When people want to believe in something strongly enough, they will justify it, rationality be damned.


You mean like the whole trump ordeal?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You mean like the whole trump ordeal?


No one is debating that, so why are you bringing it up? Is that all you know is anti-trump this anti-trump that? Do you not have a bright enough spectrum of intelligence to debate anything or discuss anything but how much of a pompous asshole Trump is? Open your mind sir there’s so many other things to discuss. We all know Trump is an idiot there’s no need to keep bringing that into every debate.


----------



## watfly (Jan 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> But this isn’t political, so I wonder what it is?


It's criminal. that's what it is.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No one is debating that, so why are you bringing it up? Is that all you know is anti-trump this anti-trump that? Do you not have a bright enough spectrum of intelligence to debate anything or discuss anything but how much of a pompous asshole Trump is? Open your mind sir there’s so many other things to discuss. We all know Trump is an idiot there’s no need to keep bringing that into every debate.


I believe that one is "Seven of Nine". "They" are a boring collective.


----------



## watfly (Jan 14, 2021)

Anyone else notice the hypocrisy regarding the demand for the National Guard...or is it just me?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No one is debating that, so why are you bringing it up? Is that all you know is anti-trump this anti-trump that? Do you not have a bright enough spectrum of intelligence to debate anything or discuss anything but how much of a pompous asshole Trump is? Open your mind sir there’s so many other things to discuss. We all know Trump is an idiot there’s no need to keep bringing that into every debate.


Until the spell is broken and people realize what a con he is my work continues! LOL!


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Until the spell is broken and people realize what a con he is my work continues! LOL!


Sure....cause the dead horse flinched right?  Makes sense if someone is defending that douche but why drag him into a subject that has nothing to do with him?  Obsession?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 14, 2021)

Cuomo still refuses to disclose total number of COVID-19 nursing home deaths: watchdog
					

Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s administration is again refusing to release the total number of nursing home residents who’ve died from the coronavirus for at least another two months — until…




					nypost.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 14, 2021)

Single dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine projected to be ready by mid-February
					

In a press conference Tuesday, the Department of Health and Human Services revealed that the single-dose Johnson & Johnso...




					humanevents.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Sure....cause the dead horse flinched right?  Makes sense if someone is defending that douche but why drag him into a subject that has nothing to do with him?  Obsession?


Because by reading the comments in here it is obvious that, whether a poster will admit it or not, the influence of trump is thick. Just because an idea bounced around the bubble then ended up in your lap doesn’t change the origin.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Because by reading the comments in here it is obvious that, whether a poster will admit it or not, the influence of trump is thick. Just because an idea bounced around the bubble then ended up in your lap doesn’t change the origin.


Or maybe it’s just your “orange tinted glasses”.....


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 14, 2021)

> _When President-elect Joe Biden announced his Covid-19 advisory board in November, he promised its health care experts would play a critical role in shaping his pandemic response plan.
> But, on the eve of Biden’s Thursday rollout, the board members are largely in the dark about the plan’s details, according to three people familiar.
> Biden’s Covid-19 response — portions of which will be laid out by the president-elect in a prime-time speech here — is expected to serve as a blueprint for pandemic efforts across the government, including a range of initiatives designed to boost testing, speed the development of new coronavirus therapies and distribute vaccines to hundreds of millions of Americans.
> But most of the Covid advisory board, which Biden formed within days of the election as part of an effort to demonstrate that ending the pandemic would be his top priority, *will not be briefed on the plan until tomorrow afternoon*._


_
So what exactly will Biden unveil today? If you missed Jazz’ post from earlier today, be sure to read it now, but thus far the groundbreaking plan is to, er, continue what we’re already doing.

https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2021/01/14/politico-bidens-heralded-covid-board-no-idea-plan-either/_


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 14, 2021)

Germans vexed as coronavirus vaccine rollout lags
					

In northern state, hottest ticket in town is an appointment to get a jab.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 14, 2021)

Highlights of the Biden plan.  The testing is insanity.  By the time it is in place the worst of the crisis will have passed....it only ensures testing casedemics will be used to shut schools, sports and businesses into the future since they aren't going to have all those COVID testing sites sit empty.  The eviction moratorium is going to cause increasing structural damage to the underlying economy the longer it goes on.  The overall amount also increases the likelihood of a stagflation scenario.  The $15 minimum wage will hurt small businesses at a time they are looking to get on their feet and make it less likely Rs like Collins, Murkowski and Romney will sign onto this and also posses a stagflation risk.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1349844647141650434


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 14, 2021)

Roh roh.....everybody panic!!!!  Buy up that water again!









						Still going to the grocery store? With new virus variants spreading, it’s probably time to stop.
					

Health experts say you should avoid optional trips whenever you can. You probably need a better mask, too.




					www.vox.com


----------



## espola (Jan 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Highlights of the Biden plan.  The testing is insanity.  By the time it is in place the worst of the crisis will have passed....it only ensures testing casedemics will be used to shut schools, sports and businesses into the future since they aren't going to have all those COVID testing sites sit empty.  The eviction moratorium is going to cause increasing structural damage to the underlying economy the longer it goes on.  The overall amount also increases the likelihood of a stagflation scenario.  The $15 minimum wage will hurt small businesses at a time they are looking to get on their feet and make it less likely Rs like Collins, Murkowski and Romney will sign onto this and also posses a stagflation risk.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1349844647141650434


What is "casedemics"?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 14, 2021)

espola said:


> What is "casedemics"?


Lots of people testing positive, not much by way of actual bad illness, hospitalizations or deaths. An epidemic but only of cases.


----------



## espola (Jan 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Lots of people testing positive, not much by way of actual bad illness, hospitalizations or deaths. An epidemic but only of cases.


It's a neologism (born roughly August(?)) so I don't feel bad about not knowing it.  I guess we read in different circles.

This guy 









						David H. Gorski, MD, PhD, FACS – Managing Editor
					

Personal blog: Respectful InsolenceEmail: sbmeditor@icloud.comTwitter: @gorskonInstagram: @gorskon[NOTE: If you Googled Dr. Gorski's name and found information that concerns you (for example



					sciencebasedmedicine.org
				




knows about it --









						There is no COVID-19 “casedemic.” The pandemic is real and deadly.
					

Antivaccine activists and pandemic minimizers Del Bigtree and Joe Mercola are promoting the myth of the "casedemic" that claims that the massive increase in COVID-19 cases being reported is an artifac



					sciencebasedmedicine.org


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 14, 2021)

espola said:


> I guess we read in different circles.


that's not really surprising....our tastes are very different since we've established you like original source history books, and hadn't been exposed to either Rashomon or Cobra Kai.  I'm reading JJ's "Ulysses" right now...have wanted to get through it forever but never disciplined enough.  You?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 14, 2021)

33% and change baby!  Guess we are really going to find out where that herd immunity threshold is once and for all notwithstanding mask mandates, curfews, lockdowns, outdoor dining shut, and schools still largely shut.









						1 in 3 L.A. County residents have been infected by coronavirus since pandemic began, new estimate shows
					

Officials believe 1 in 3, or more than 3 million of L.A. County's 10 million residents, have been infected with the coronavirus, including 13,000 who have died.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## espola (Jan 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> that's not really surprising....our tastes are very different since we've established you like original source history books, and hadn't been exposed to either Rashomon or Cobra Kai.  I'm reading JJ's "Ulysses" right now...have wanted to get through it forever but never disciplined enough.  You?


I am in the middle of reading old Arthur C. Clarke novels and a book on Middle Eastern history written by an author with a strong pro-Isreal bias.  My attack on the San Diego Public Library has slowed considerably since I started staying home most days and my son gave me a seat on his Netflix and HBOMax accounts.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 14, 2021)

espola said:


> I am in the middle of reading old Arthur C. Clarke novels and a book on Middle Eastern history written by an author with a strong pro-Isreal bias.  My attack on the San Diego Public Library has slowed considerably since I started staying home most days and my son gave me a seat on his Netflix and HBOMax accounts.


That's nice of your son.  Shocking, yes, but we actually have Arthur C Clarke in common (though for me it was a long time ago).  Though I am very strong in history, the middle east is my weakest and I have no done much by way of reading in that region.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No one is debating that, so why are you bringing it up? Is that all you know is anti-trump this anti-trump that? Do you not have a bright enough spectrum of intelligence to debate anything or discuss anything but how much of a pompous asshole Trump is? Open your mind sir there’s so many other things to discuss. We all know Trump is an idiot there’s no need to keep bringing that into every debate.


I do see why people are now turning Judas on the Donald.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 14, 2021)

espola said:


> I am in the middle of reading old Arthur C. Clarke novels and a book on Middle Eastern history written by an author with a strong pro-Isreal bias.  My attack on the San Diego Public Library has slowed considerably since I started staying home most days and my son gave me a seat on his Netflix and HBOMax accounts.


If you like history check out "The Crusades Through Arab Eyes.

Also...this book is great.

Empires of the Sea: The Siege of Malta, The Battle of Lepanto, and the Conquest of the Center of the World.

And if you want to read about one of the greatest generals of antiquity...

Belisarius, The Last Roman General.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 14, 2021)

Another good one.

City of Fortune, How Venice Ruled the Seas


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 14, 2021)

Sword and Scimitar: 14 centuries of war between Islam and the West


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 14, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Sword and Scimitar: 14 centuries of war between Islam and the West


I've read the last 2 on your list


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I've read the last 2 on your list


If you liked the writing style of City of Fortune, read his Empires if the Sea book. It is excellent


----------



## notintheface (Jan 14, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Single dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine projected to be ready by mid-February
> 
> 
> In a press conference Tuesday, the Department of Health and Human Services revealed that the single-dose Johnson & Johnso...
> ...


I'm sorry, you are in the wrong thread, that link needs to go into Good News, sir.


----------



## N00B (Jan 14, 2021)

notintheface said:


> I'm sorry, you are in the wrong thread, that link needs to go into Good News, sir.


production issues are negative, but other than that potential good news


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 14, 2021)

a survey on mask effects in Minnesota while playing sports


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1349385614106439688


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 14, 2021)

Even the mainstream media now picking up on team Reality studies.....









						COVID Closures May Have No Clear Benefit vs Other Voluntary Measures: Study
					

The peer reviewed study, which was conducted by a group of Stanford researchers and published in the Wiley Online Library on January 5, analyzed coronavirus case growth in 10 countries in early 2020.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jan 14, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> If you like history check out "The Crusades Through Arab Eyes.
> 
> Also...this book is great.
> 
> ...


Ooh...right down my alley. Seriously.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a survey on mask effects in Minnesota while playing sports
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1349385614106439688


Who is he eff is stupid enough to wear a mask while playing? Just shows the dearth of knowledge.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm reading JJ's "Ulysses" right now...have wanted to get through it forever but never disciplined enough.  You?


Tried it once. It didn’t take long until I was done.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Tried it once. It didn’t take long until I was done.


It doesn’t help the best parts are at the end


----------



## watfly (Jan 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Highlights of the Biden plan.  The testing is insanity.  By the time it is in place the worst of the crisis will have passed....it only ensures testing casedemics will be used to shut schools, sports and businesses into the future since they aren't going to have all those COVID testing sites sit empty.  The eviction moratorium is going to cause increasing structural damage to the underlying economy the longer it goes on.  The overall amount also increases the likelihood of a stagflation scenario.  The $15 minimum wage will hurt small businesses at a time they are looking to get on their feet and make it less likely Rs like Collins, Murkowski and Romney will sign onto this and also posses a stagflation risk.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1349844647141650434


Continuing the eviction moratorium is so misguided.   Proof of how stupid our politicians are and their hatred for owners of any sort.  My 88 year old mom has a couple rental units that she relies on for income.  A jackass tenant is using Covid as an excuse and hasn't paid in 8 months and is such an asshole he caused the other tenant to moveout.  She has absolutely no ability to evict him, he continues to live rent free while she struggles.  Eventually she might be able to get a judgement for unpaid rent which wont be worth the paper its written on.  Unfortunately, the stress may get to her before he can even be evicted.  So shameful.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> Continuing the eviction moratorium is so misguided.   Proof of how stupid our politicians are and their hatred for owners of any sort.  My 88 year old mom has a couple rental units that she relies on for income.  A jackass tenant is using Covid as an excuse and hasn't paid in 8 months and is such an asshole he caused the other tenant to moveout.  She has absolutely no ability to evict him, he continues to live rent free while she struggles.  Eventually she might be able to get a judgement for unpaid rent which wont be worth the paper its written on.  Unfortunately, the stress may get to her before he can even be evicted.  So shameful.


My parents are in the same boat. What’s worse is they were all set to ride out their year long isolation at the beach house but the tenant stopped paying and they couldn’t do anything about it.


----------



## watfly (Jan 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My parents are in the same boat. What’s worse is they were all set to ride out their year long isolation at the beach house but the tenant stopped paying and they couldn’t do anything about it.


Giant middle finger to seniors who with hard work developed a small RE portfolio so they didn't have to rely on SS.  I'd say that landlords should get a bailout as well, but honestly we can't spend our way out of the lockdown.  Unfortunately just more legislation to have citizens be dependent on government support.


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> Giant middle finger to seniors who with hard work developed a small RE portfolio so they didn't have to rely on SS.  I'd say that landlords should get a bailout as well, but honestly we can't spend our way out of the lockdown.  Unfortunately just more legislation to have citizens be dependent on government support.


You are absolutely right in landlords should receive the bailout for the problems they caused with state and federal government moratoriums. Unfortunately Biden’s latest 1.9 trillion bailout plan will focus on state governments. More school union payoffs and any other special interest they need to payoff for his election. Completely corrupt government we have across the board.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 15, 2021)

Not a reason for them to halt vaccination or to dissuade anyone from taking it, but this probably will add fuel to the public health expert's fire that they need to mandate the vaccine "to protect the vulnerable".








						23 die in Norway after receiving Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine: officials
					

Common reactions to the vaccine, including fever and nausea, “may have contributed to a fatal outcome in some frail patients,” Sigurd Hortemo, chief physician at the Norwegian Medicines Agency, sai…




					nypost.com


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Who is he eff is stupid enough to wear a mask while playing? Just shows the dearth of knowledge.


Some states are only letting kids return to practice and/or Play with a mask on at ALL times.  LA Co has said gyms can open up outdoors but a mask must be worn at all times.  So you ask who is stupid enough...out so called leaders who demand it.  That’s who!  Especially the one who states we should wear a mask while eating, removing between bites but minimize how often you touch your mask!


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 15, 2021)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> You are absolutely right in landlords should receive the bailout for the problems they caused with state and federal government moratoriums. Unfortunately Biden’s latest 1.9 trillion bailout plan will focus on state governments. More school union payoffs and any other special interest they need to payoff for his election. Completely corrupt government we have across the board.


Aid for state and local governments: Biden wants to provide state, local and territorial governments with $350 billion in emergency funding to help them keep front-line workers employed and aid with vaccine distribution, COVID-19 testing, reopening schools and "maintaining other vital services."

Funding for state and local governments emerged as one of the most contentious issues during nearly a half-year of relief negotiations between Democrats and Republicans, who decried the proposal as a "blue-state bailout." Unable to compromise on the issue, lawmakers eventually decided to exclude state and local government aid from the $900 billion relief deal they passed in December.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Some states are only letting kids return to practice and/or Play with a mask on at ALL times.  LA Co has said gyms can open up outdoors but a mask must be worn at all times.  So you ask who is stupid enough...out so called leaders who demand it.  That’s who!  Especially the one who states we should wear a mask while eating, removing between bites but minimize how often you touch your mask!


Let ‘em play!


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 16, 2021)

Biden has appointed Andy Slavitt to the covid task force. Andy slavit is an Econ/mba guy and doesn’t hold a medical or health policy degree.  That’s not fatal for me (but what happened to only listen to epidemiologists?).  But worse yet he’s been wrong about everything. Advocated the initial slow the spread lockdowns. Then said if we extended 6-8 we’d all be fine. Then said masks would make it disappear. Then advocated Chinese style lockdowns.  But what worst is that he believes these npis failed because we didn’t listen and obey (not because the policies suck).  He’s the worst of the worst of team panic.  Not reason to be optimistic so far about Biden’s covid task force.

what is optimistic is now d leaders like light foot and cuomo (now that they no longer have trump to take down) are singing new tunes on lockdowns.


----------



## espola (Jan 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Biden has appointed Andy Slavitt to the covid task force. Andy slavit is an Econ/mba guy and doesn’t hold a medical or health policy degree.  That’s not fatal for me (but what happened to only listen to epidemiologists?).  But worse yet he’s been wrong about everything. Advocated the initial slow the spread lockdowns. Then said if we extended 6-8 we’d all be fine. Then said masks would make it disappear. Then advocated Chinese style lockdowns.  But what worst is that he believes these npis failed because we didn’t listen and obey (not because the policies suck).


Source?


----------



## Jose has returned (Jan 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Biden has appointed Andy Slavitt to the covid task force. Andy slavit is an Econ/mba guy and doesn’t hold a medical or health policy degree.  That’s not fatal for me (but what happened to only listen to epidemiologists?).  But worse yet he’s been wrong about everything. Advocated the initial slow the spread lockdowns. Then said if we extended 6-8 we’d all be fine. Then said masks would make it disappear. Then advocated Chinese style lockdowns.  But what worst is that he believes these npis failed because we didn’t listen and obey (not because the policies suck).  He’s the worst of the worst of team panic.  Not reason to be optimistic so far about Biden’s covid task force.
> 
> what is optimistic is now d leaders like light foot and cuomo (now that they no longer have trump to take down) are singing new tunes on lockdowns.


the entire "science" of a virus changed on  November 3rd.  Its a new world


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 16, 2021)

espola said:


> Source?


Someone did a breakdown of his prior posts on twitter.  If I find them I'll post it....otherwise if you are curious I suggest you slog through the mess that is Slavitt's back twitter posts.  He's been very vocal on the pro-scared side.


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 16, 2021)

Jose has returned said:


> the entire "science" of a virus changed on  November 3rd.  Its a new world


And yet the politicians think the people won’t notice because they waited until January to start changing their tune. I am not sure a majority of people pay enough attention to understand what democratic led states did was just to hurt the economy in turn hurting Trump. They have purposefully hurt our children and small business owners to gain power. Could you ever imagine politicians purposefully hurting their constituents and getting away with it in America? The only hope someone will be held accountable is if Newsom is recalled. Those who vote democrat hated Trump so much they have turned a blind eye to what has been done here. I hope in their hearts they reflect on what took place. I hope both sides start to bring forward moderates so that we get away from the far left and right politicians. They are bad for the people. This comment includes Trump. While his economic policies helped America his willingness to make everyone who disagreed with him an enemy hurt the country. Though you may agree with him that Washington is filled with corrupt politicians on both sides, he should have realized they were necessary to get his policies enacted. His attack on the MSM while the truth has created a democratic marketing tool. Sometimes people might watch just the first 10 minutes of the news. With it being all negative towards Trump it hurt him big time. The MSM is also bad for our country because they have come together under one narrative which is typically left leaning and globalistic. Looks like the Democrats are happy with this as it is benefitting them now. They may want to look long term and tell themselves if they want companies like Twitter and Amazon dictating to them what should happen in this country. Don’t create a monster you cannot stop.


----------



## espola (Jan 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Someone did a breakdown of his prior posts on twitter.  If I find them I'll post it....otherwise if you are curious I suggest you slog through the mess that is Slavitt's back twitter posts.  He's been very vocal on the pro-scared side.


What does he have to be scared of?  Hundreds of thousands of deaths?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> But what worst is that he believes these npis failed because we didn’t listen and obey (not because the policies suck).


This tells us that he doesn't have a freaking clue about the people he is supposed to be leading or how to lead them.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> what is optimistic is now d leaders like light foot and cuomo (now that they no longer have trump to take down) are singing new tunes on lockdowns.


Self-preservation is an amazing motivator for politicians.


----------



## crush (Jan 17, 2021)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 17, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 9947


Upset lies and fiction are now frowned upon? Just be glad your religious beliefs are protected in that case, for the time being.


----------



## crush (Jan 17, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Upset lies and fiction are now frowned upon? Just be glad your religious beliefs are protected in that case, for the time being.


This is a team effort.  You shall see.  Dont torture, rape or murder children.  Do you not get it yet?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 17, 2021)

crush said:


> This is a team effort.  You shall see.  Dont torture, rape or murder children.  Do you not get it yet?


You are a gullible fragile individual. Seek help, maybe just get some exercise to clear your head.


----------



## crush (Jan 17, 2021)

Anyone here want to answer the Q?  Where are the kids?  Husker?  Make fun of me all you want.  Let's focus on the Q only and not me personally.  Fair?  What happen to the 800,000 missing kids?  I have another Q for you Husker.  Are you ok with selling babies parts?  Internet will be going down down down soon.  Let's fix this shit unless your ok with murdering kids.  That's why I came here.  To help!!!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 17, 2021)

The Slavitt thread....he really is a true horror or wrongness and has not business being on anyone's COVID taskforce.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1350576375481163778


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 17, 2021)

a. the underlying damage of the COVID shock to the economy is being underestimated.....
b. lockdowns are going to cost lives for years to come.....



			https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf


----------



## espola (Jan 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The Slavitt thread....he really is a true horror or wrongness and has not business being on anyone's COVID taskforce.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1350576375481163778


" Known for his frequent “Twitterhea” length fear-mongering threads preaching subservience"  --  this is your source for rational information?


----------



## Jose has returned (Jan 17, 2021)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> And yet the politicians think the people won’t notice because they waited until January to start changing their tune. I am not sure a majority of people pay enough attention to understand what democratic led states did was just to hurt the economy in turn hurting Trump. They have purposefully hurt our children and small business owners to gain power. Could you ever imagine politicians purposefully hurting their constituents and getting away with it in America? The only hope someone will be held accountable is if Newsom is recalled. Those who vote democrat hated Trump so much they have turned a blind eye to what has been done here. I hope in their hearts they reflect on what took place. I hope both sides start to bring forward moderates so that we get away from the far left and right politicians. They are bad for the people. This comment includes Trump. While his economic policies helped America his willingness to make everyone who disagreed with him an enemy hurt the country. Though you may agree with him that Washington is filled with corrupt politicians on both sides, he should have realized they were necessary to get his policies enacted. His attack on the MSM while the truth has created a democratic marketing tool. Sometimes people might watch just the first 10 minutes of the news. With it being all negative towards Trump it hurt him big time. The MSM is also bad for our country because they have come together under one narrative which is typically left leaning and globalistic. Looks like the Democrats are happy with this as it is benefitting them now. They may want to look long term and tell themselves if they want companies like Twitter and Amazon dictating to them what should happen in this country. Don’t create a monster you cannot stop.


they don't have souls so nobody is mad that they hurt citizens.  The media is awful and pass the garbage along


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 17, 2021)

espola said:


> " Known for his frequent “Twitterhea” length fear-mongering threads preaching subservience"  --  this is your source for rational information?


he does pick apart slavitts record if you read the entire thing and set aside the commentary.  I get the attack the source thing but that doesn’t distract from how wrong slavitt (in his own quotes words) has been. He makes dad4 even look like a wild anti lockdown anti masker.


----------



## espola (Jan 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> he does pick apart slavitts record if you read the entire thing and set aside the commentary.


I scrolled back far enough to read what he was saying before his commentary on Slavitt.


----------



## espola (Jan 17, 2021)

This is representative of the type of stuff he has posted on twitter --



			https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoAB-taXcAEUZwj?format=jpg&name=large


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 17, 2021)

espola said:


> This is representative of the type of stuff he has posted on twitter --
> 
> 
> 
> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EoAB-taXcAEUZwj?format=jpg&name=large


Again not defending the source...don’t care attack it away

not hearing much of a defense of slavitt though or his quotes

the fauci pick is funny though in a juvenile poop joke sort of way


----------



## crush (Jan 17, 2021)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 17, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 9949


That’s the extreme perspective void of context and reasoning, but go ahead and run with it.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 18, 2021)

From the NY Times. You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to question experts. The "bold" is from the story.


Early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.​

Their motivation was mostly good. It sprung from a concern that people would rush to buy high-grade medical masks, leaving too few for doctors and nurses. The experts were also unsure how much ordinary masks would help.​

But the message was still a mistake.​

It confused people. (If masks weren’t effective, why did doctors and nurses need them?) It delayed the widespread use of masks (even though there was good reason to believe they could help). And it damaged the credibility of public health experts.​

“When people feel as though they may not be getting the full truth from the authorities, snake-oil sellers and price gougers have an easier time,” the sociologist Zeynep Tufekci wrote early last year.​

Now a version of the mask story is repeating itself — this time involving the vaccines. *Once again, the experts don’t seem to trust the public to hear the full truth.*​


----------



## crush (Jan 18, 2021)

Black Widows, killer of babies.  HC took it even further.  Killing babies before birth and then using and selling livers and hearts for profit.  Not sure it's photo shopped or not but she was pure evil!!!

*Hillary Clinton receives award named for famed eugenicist*
Receiving the award is a *“great privilege,” *Clinton said after the presentation*. “I admire Margaret Sanger enormously, her courage, her tenacity, her vision…. I am really in awe of her,”* Clinton said.


----------



## tenacious (Jan 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> From the NY Times. You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to question experts. The "bold" is from the story.
> 
> 
> Early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.​
> ...



I laughed at the run on toilet paper... up until the day I went to the store to get toilet paper.  So I do take the threat they were looking to prevent as a legitimate concern.  And taking 'extraordinary' measures to make sure they had enough masks... by prioritizing healthcare workers with the healthcare equipment... seems like common sense.

What concerns me is rather then be honest with people, and ask them to be willing to volunteer to give up masks for the greater good that leaders / media felt they had to lie. Yeah the politicians suck, but it's also true that public service and working for the greater good is no longer an idea that sells in America. 

Americans have become a people who feels they owe nothing, and yet are somehow owed everything.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 18, 2021)

tenacious said:


> I laughed at the run on toilet paper... up until the day I went to the store to get toilet paper.  So I do take the threat they were looking to prevent as a legitimate concern.  And taking 'extraordinary' measures to make sure they had enough masks... by prioritizing healthcare workers with the healthcare equipment... seems like common sense.
> 
> What concerns me is rather then be honest with people, and ask them to be willing to volunteer to give up masks for the greater good that leaders / media felt they had to lie. Yeah the politicians suck, but it's also true that public service and working for the greater good is no longer an idea that sells in America.
> 
> Americans have become a people who feels they owe nothing, and yet are somehow owed everything.


The flip side of that is the meritocracy: a ruling class (whether politician, health expert, media, etc) that feels it is entitled to rule, that it is entitled to pass on those benefits to their children, and therefore looks down on everyone else.  As they say, it takes 2 to tango and the lie had its origins in both.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 18, 2021)

The California vaccine rollout is about to get a lot worse........









						California official calls for pause on Moderna vaccine lot after possible allergic reaction
					

Dr. Erica S. Pan, the California epidemiologist, issued a statement Sunday recommending a pause in the distribution of a specific lot of Moderna vaccine after “fewer than 10 individuals required medical attention over the span of 24 hours.”




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The California vaccine rollout is about to get a lot worse........
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 18, 2021)

Here's a load of bad news including how CA takes care of money.

*Billions Lost In Fraudulent EDD Payments; Overseas Crime Syndicates Cash In*
SAN FRANCISCO — While millions of Californians are battling each day to put food on the table amid the idled COVID-19 economy, payments from the state earmarked to help them have been ripped off to the tune of nearly $10 billion, according to a security firm hired to investigate the fraud. KPIX 5 has been among the leaders in investigating the EDD payment crisis. Blake Hall, founder and CEO of ID.me told the Los Angeles Times, that California may have paid out nearly $10 billion in phony coronavirus unemployment claims — more than double the previous estimate. Some of that money has gone to organized crime in Russia, China and other countries. At least 10% of claims submitted to the state Employment Development Department before controls were installed in October may have been fraudulent. *Read More/a>*









						Bay Area COVID-19 Roundup: Virus Variant Discovered In Santa Clara; Chaotic COVID Vaccine Rollout; Billions Lost In Fraudulent EDD Payments
					

With a surge in coronavirus cases, the information you need to know is coming fast and furious. Here's a roundup of the COVID stories we've published over the weekend.




					sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 19, 2021)

In general, I'd say the CO news is pretty good. I'm pleased to see some clear thinking leadership in Governor Polis' quote, "There's no excuse not to protect as many 70 and up residents as possible a week or two earlier." However, the dichotomy of "Team Fear Santa Clara County" vs. rational thinking is made clear when you consider the reactions to a possible delay in newly delivered doses because the reserve for the second shot is being used to get people the first shot sooner.

From SC County: *“We learned this morning that no such stockpile exists. This throws into chaos expectations around vaccine delivery,” said Santa Clara County’s Chief Counsel James Williams.*

From CO Governor Polis: *People who are due for their second dose can receive it as scheduled, Polis said. If unexpected delays in vaccine supplies come later, hospitals can reduce their first doses to ensure everyone gets a second dose on time, the letter said.*

---

*Santa Clara County Fears ‘Chaos’ as Vaccination Supplies Dwindle*
SAN JOSE — Santa Clara County public health officials on Friday said they’re alarmed by reports the federal government has depleted its stockpile of COVID-19 vaccine — a reserve that was meant to provide a steady supply of the vaccine for the prescribed second dose. “We learned this morning that no such stockpile exists. *This throws into chaos expectations around vaccine delivery,” said Santa Clara County’s Chief Counsel James Williams.* Santa Clara County has significantly ramped up its distribution efforts, administering an estimated 6,000 shots a day and 30,000 shots per week. But that system was dependent on regular new shipments of the vaccine. Without those doses, the county would quickly exhaust its available supply.

By Meg Wingerter

The Denver Post

About 40,000 older Coloradans will get their first COVID-19 shot a few weeks earlier than initially planned after the state on Monday ordered providers to stop holding back second doses.

In a letter sent to vaccine providers, Gov. Jared Polis directed hospitals and others to stop holding back doses for current patients’ second shots. Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses, spaced three or four weeks apart, respectively.

Polis estimated that the doses currently held in reserve for future weeks will allow about 40,000 more people to get vaccinated this week. The state expects about 83,000 doses to arrive this week, meaning more than 120,000 people can get their first shot, he said.

*People who are due for their second dose can receive it as scheduled, Polis said. If unexpected delays in vaccine supplies come later, hospitals can reduce their first doses to ensure everyone gets a second dose on time, the letter said.*

The plan essentially shifts the 40,000 people forward a few weeks, because the second doses that had been held in reserve will have to be taken out of shipments in upcoming weeks. The announcement Monday doesn’t change the timeline of having 70% of people who are 70 and older vaccinated by the end of February, the governor said.

“We will apply the second doses in the week they’re needed,” Polis said in an interview with The Denver Post. *“There’s no excuse not to protect as many 70 and up (residents) as possible a week or two earlier.”*


----------



## crush (Jan 19, 2021)

The evil treatment of kids and those not born yet will soon end.  We ALL need to learn from this and never allow this evil again.  Tim is bad ass!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 19, 2021)

The pro-lockdowners will have a lot to answer for when all is said and done.......









						One in four young people feeling 'unable to cope' as  lockdown takes toll on mental health
					

Crisis has taken 'devastating toll' on teenagers and young adults and many are losing hope for the future, Prince's Trust warns




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				












						Lockdown 'killed two people for every three who died of coronavirus' at peak of outbreak
					

Estimates show 16,000 people died through missed medical care by May 1, while virus killed 25,000 in same period




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## watfly (Jan 19, 2021)

Still holding steady at #46.  Seems like the pace of 65 and over shots is starting to pick up in San Diego.  Let's hope we can turn the corner on getting shots out to the public.




__





						States ranked by percentage of COVID-19 vaccines administered: Nov. 30
					

Wisconsin has administered the highest percentage of COVID-19 vaccines it has received, according to the CDC's COVID-19 vaccine distribution and administration data tracker.




					www.beckershospitalreview.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> Still holding steady at #46.  Seems like the pace of 65 and over shots is starting to pick up in San Diego.  Let's hope we can turn the corner on getting shots out to the public.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Even though they are allowing them to register for shots in Ventura County, 75+ are still being turned away even if they have an appointment (but if you are a dentist, good to go).


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 19, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Here's a load of bad news including how CA takes care of money.
> 
> *Billions Lost In Fraudulent EDD Payments; Overseas Crime Syndicates Cash In*
> SAN FRANCISCO — While millions of Californians are battling each day to put food on the table amid the idled COVID-19 economy, payments from the state earmarked to help them have been ripped off to the tune of nearly $10 billion, according to a security firm hired to investigate the fraud. KPIX 5 has been among the leaders in investigating the EDD payment crisis. Blake Hall, founder and CEO of ID.me told the Los Angeles Times, that California may have paid out nearly $10 billion in phony coronavirus unemployment claims — more than double the previous estimate. Some of that money has gone to organized crime in Russia, China and other countries. At least 10% of claims submitted to the state Employment Development Department before controls were installed in October may have been fraudulent. *Read More/a>*
> ...


May have been?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 19, 2021)

Rogue antibodies could be driving severe COVID-19
					

Evidence is growing that self-attacking ‘autoantibodies’ could be the key to understanding some of the worst cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection.




					www.nature.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 19, 2021)

My pediatrician friend doesn't think the under 12 will be vaccinated before mid fall.  On our school call, according to her, they aren't very far in the testing for the under 12 and so far it has been very limited.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My pediatrician friend doesn't think the under 12 will be vaccinated before mid fall.  On our school call, according to her, they aren't very far in the testing for the under 12 and so far it has been very limited.


Wow she just blew my mind.  Says the experimental label is probably not going to be removed for 1-2 years.  If so, they can't mandate it.


----------



## N00B (Jan 19, 2021)

1 in 8 recovered coronavirus patients die within 5 months: study
					

Out of 47,780 discharged hospital patients, 29.4 percent were readmitted within 140 days.  The long-term consequences of coronavirus infection are continuing to come to light as the virus continues to rage on around the world, now for nearly one year.  A new study conducted in the United Kingdom...




					www.google.com
				




Sounds pretty ominous.  Guessing there is some correlation to a age, but not good news.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 20, 2021)

Can anyone make sense of this slide?  What is California doing it with its IC  U and hospital capacity?

The allegation is that California is deliberately lowering ICU capacity to justify purple plus lockdowns.  I'm more wondering what is going on inside the hospitals.  On the one hand, it's very clear the hospitals are stressed, there are horror stories of people dying, people who under other circumstances might be hospitalized to be safe are being sent home, there's been some scrubbing of elective procedures, and of ambulances being diverted to other hospitals.  On the other hand, there hasn't been a whole lot of reporting of people being turned away from medical care, declarations that hospitals have collapsed, actual rationing of care where some people are just written off to die (despite LA now being either at or past peak and supposedly ICU capacity at 0%), and the nurses still have time to do tik tok.

My family is largely medical (except for us lawyer siblings) but none of them are active ER.  But from what I can gather the hospitals are very stressed but no where near collapse.  It's like a very very bad flu season.  Hospitals are typically stressed in such times January-March though not usually this much except when a once in a decade flu even comes along.  Anyone any first hand insight for what's actually going on?  My impression is that it is bad, but there's also a whole lot of exaggeration going on.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1351947012938162176


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Can anyone make sense of this slide?  What is California doing it with its IC  U and hospital capacity?
> 
> The allegation is that California is deliberately lowering ICU capacity to justify purple plus lockdowns.  I'm more wondering what is going on inside the hospitals.  On the one hand, it's very clear the hospitals are stressed, there are horror stories of people dying, people who under other circumstances might be hospitalized to be safe are being sent home, there's been some scrubbing of elective procedures, and of ambulances being diverted to other hospitals.  On the other hand, there hasn't been a whole lot of reporting of people being turned away from medical care, declarations that hospitals have collapsed, actual rationing of care where some people are just written off to die (despite LA now being either at or past peak and supposedly ICU capacity at 0%), and the nurses still have time to do tik tok.
> 
> ...


Some quick thoughts:

- Not sure we can compare ICU capacity versus a regular year given the likelihood the number has also dropped due to reduction in other ailments as a result of the lockdown. I don't have data here, but that would be one thing I'd look into. 

- I wonder how easy hospital transfers are. It makes me worry about a single ICU capacity for all of SoCal. Like it's not telling the whole story. Some hospitals may be more impacted than others. This might explain the different stories one might be hearing. 

- All of my Doctor friends work in SF. They are absolutely swamped. Much of this is related to additional process due to covid. But this goes beyond ER work. 

- I've also heard many nurses don't want to shift to ICU work -- they can do this via union protections. I can't say I blame them. Perhaps there's issues related to this.

On the upside, I think our numbers, at least in NorCal, are starting to drop. I think by March we will all be in the Orange Tier.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 20, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Some quick thoughts:
> 
> - Not sure we can compare ICU capacity versus a regular year given the likelihood the number has also dropped due to reduction in other ailments as a result of the lockdown. I don't have data here, but that would be one thing I'd look into.
> 
> ...


Useful!  Thanks!

VC numbers are starting to drop too.  LA is past peak as well.  VC, unlike LA, is no where near a point you can make the herd immunity argument and if the holidays were the central issue VC should still be continuing to accelerate as it makes its way through families.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1351981472727502849


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 20, 2021)

Same thoughts as Norcal Dad- all our RN friends say that yes- they are very busy. Partly due to an increase of patients and partly due to additional processes' due to covid. Plus, mental fatigue is very real.


----------



## watfly (Jan 20, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> - I wonder how easy hospital transfers are. It makes me worry about a single ICU capacity for all of SoCal. Like it's not telling the whole story. Some hospitals may be more impacted than others. This might explain the different stories one might be hearing.


I don't know how easy it is, but I know for a fact that it is happening fairly regularly within one hospital system.  LA and IE to San Diego.

Just FYI while the Southern California region has been reporting 0% for ICU capacity for a few weeks, San Diego has been as high as 20% during this period.  It's currently at 12%.  No clue how the math works for the region.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> I don't know how easy it is, but I know for a fact that it is happening fairly regularly within one hospital system.  LA and IE to San Diego.
> 
> Just FYI while the Southern California region has been reporting 0% for ICU capacity for a few weeks, San Diego has been as high as 20% during this period.  It's currently at 12%.  No clue how the math works for the region.


Supposedly VC reported a negative number a few days, so who knows.

The other head scratcher if 0 really means zero wouldn't the press stories be that people are dying in the hallways unable to obtain medical care?


----------



## watfly (Jan 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Supposedly VC reported a negative number a few days, so who knows.
> 
> The other head scratcher if 0 really means zero wouldn't the press stories be that people are dying in the hallways unable to obtain medical care?


Common Core math?  (BTW I'm not opposed to the analytical concept of Common Core, but the implementation and execution of it is horrific.)


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> Common Core math?  (BTW I'm not opposed to the analytical concept of Common Core, but the implementation and execution of it is horrific.)


I'm opposed to it because I have no idea how to help my kids with their homework sometimes. I usually just say "Can't you just add it? Back in my day, we didn't need no stinking boxes to add two numbers"

I'm mostly kidding here...


----------



## espola (Jan 20, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> I'm opposed to it because I have no idea how to help my kids with their homework sometimes. I usually just say "Can't you just add it? Back in my day, we didn't need no stinking boxes to add two numbers"
> 
> I'm mostly kidding here...


How did you do long division?  Or find square roots?


----------



## N00B (Jan 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Supposedly VC reported a negative number a few days, so who knows.
> 
> The other head scratcher if 0 really means zero wouldn't the press stories be that people are dying in the hallways unable to obtain medical care?


ICU and Hospital capacity calculations for the Regional Stay at Home order are based on non-surge capacity.  Hence the discrepancy between the actual beds available vs. 0% capacity reporting/basis for the regional health orders.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> ICU and Hospital capacity calculations for the Regional Stay at Home order are based on non-surge capacity.  Hence the discrepancy between the actual beds available vs. 0% capacity reporting/basis for the regional health orders.


Figures.  That's so stupid.   They are basically lying again for propaganda's sake.  Thanks for info!


----------



## watfly (Jan 20, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> I'm opposed to it because I have no idea how to help my kids with their homework sometimes. I usually just say "Can't you just add it? Back in my day, we didn't need no stinking boxes to add two numbers"
> 
> I'm mostly kidding here...


We can all feel your pain.  I once wrote a note to the elementary teacher in the margins of my daughter's math homework something to effect of I'm a CPA and I have no clue how to do this homework.  Smarter than a 5th grader, nope, not me.


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 20, 2021)

espola said:


> How did you do long division?  Or find square roots?


Not with boxes.


----------



## espola (Jan 20, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Not with boxes.


But we do use little drawn figures to keep track of our efforts, right?


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 20, 2021)

espola said:


> But we do use little drawn figures to keep track of our efforts, right?


You mean numbers?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 20, 2021)

Biden's grandkids already violating their grandfather's mask mandate while on federal property......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352070810182295558


----------



## whatithink (Jan 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> We can all feel your pain.  I once wrote a note to the elementary teacher in the margins of my daughter's math homework something to effect of I'm a CPA and I have no clue how to do this homework.  Smarter than a 5th grader, nope, not me.


I once solved a problem for my 4th grader using Algebra, which she had never been taught. I wrote a note in the margin asking the teacher to let me know how to solve it without Algebra ... still waiting.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 20, 2021)

Story in la times.  Unless the az (already being deployed in the uk) or j&j vaccine is deployed at the current rate we won’t get past seniors and certain essential workers/homeless/prisoners until June.


----------



## watfly (Jan 20, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I once solved a problem for my 4th grader using Algebra, which she had never been taught. I wrote a note in the margin asking the teacher to let me know how to solve it without Algebra ... still waiting.


Yeah, I don't think teachers appreciate notes in the margins from parents.   Part of the answer to your question is either boxes or a number line, but you're on your own after that.


----------



## espola (Jan 20, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> You mean numbers?


I was thinking of the lines that aren't numbers --



			https://www.wikihow.com/images/thumb/0/05/Do-Long-Division-Step-9-Version-4.jpg/v4-460px-Do-Long-Division-Step-9-Version-4.jpg.webp


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 20, 2021)

espola said:


> I was thinking of the lines that aren't numbers --
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.wikihow.com/images/thumb/0/05/Do-Long-Division-Step-9-Version-4.jpg/v4-460px-Do-Long-Division-Step-9-Version-4.jpg.webp


That is not common core

Nor is it a box


----------



## espola (Jan 20, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> That is not common core
> 
> Nor is it a box


It's crutch, just a different sort of crutch than boxes.


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 20, 2021)

espola said:


> It's crutch, just a different sort of crutch than boxes.


Wait, are we debating if common core is better/worse than what we did in the "olden" days? Honestly I don't even know what's going on here.


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 20, 2021)

I'd much rather we focus on real issues such as:



			https://i.redd.it/pm2xju7nulc61.jpg


----------



## espola (Jan 20, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> I'd much rather we focus on real issues such as:
> 
> 
> 
> https://i.redd.it/pm2xju7nulc61.jpg


That does not make sense --


----------



## N00B (Jan 20, 2021)

espola said:


> That does not make sense --


Both are funny.


----------



## notintheface (Jan 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Biden's grandkids already violating their grandfather's mask mandate while on federal property......


Do you really have to be a complete cunt about everything?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

notintheface said:


> Do you really have to be a complete cunt about everything?


love It when the mask drops. Sexist and misogynistic from someone supposedly a virtuous team bluer that care about his fellow man. Upset that it’s true?  Upset I’m stepping on your day?  Upset at the hypocrisy being pointed out?  Or maybe you just accidentally posted from the wrong account?

or perhaps I might ask the question another way:  why do you always have to be a dick about everything?


----------



## crush (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> love It when the mask drops. Sexist and misogynistic from someone supposedly a virtuous team bluer that care about his fellow man. Upset that it’s true?  Upset I’m stepping on your day?  Upset at the hypocrisy being pointed out?  Or maybe you just accidentally posted from the wrong account?
> 
> or perhaps I might ask the question another way:  why do you always have to be a dick about everything?


He's a coach Grace.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Biden's grandkids already violating their grandfather's mask mandate while on federal property......
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352070810182295558


So if Biden gets Covid, does he lose the ability to smell small children?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

crush said:


> He's a coach Grace.


yeah I wonder what it is about sports in general and soccer in particular that attracts these types to coaching?

on the boys or on the girls side?  Because on the girls side woah that’s how he’s talk about someone’s dd?


----------



## Chalklines (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Just speculation on my part, but if the death rate remains the same (and it will if they really wait until March to start vaccinated 75+ year olds), and if the pace of vaccinations continues the same in California, we won't be out of purple in most of SoCal til march so it probably means (if everything else remains the same), we aren't playing until summer at the absolute earliest.  Also, with teachers then not scheduled until April, the entire school year is a bust for those still on remote.  Again, if everything remains unchanged.


Its obvious things wont return to some what normal till 2022


----------



## crush (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> yeah I wonder what it is about sports in general and soccer in particular that attracts these types to coaching?
> 
> on the boys or on the girls side?  Because on the girls side woah that’s how he’s talk about someone’s dd?


Yes, this is typical of some and one of the main reasons I came on here.  They think I was mad because my dd was snubbed.  Sad indeed.  Notice no one attacks my message?  They call me dumbs dumbs, moron, idiot, dam fool, crazy father, club hopper, black listed and so many other lovely words.  Like I said so many times to these pervs who take advantage of kids and their parents, I will NEVER STOP IT!!!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Chalklines said:


> Its obvious things wont return to some what normal till 2022


Things will get better.  Within two months for example well see seniors start to crawl out of their exiles. Now that California has actually moved to vaccinate seniors the death rate will start to drop in March. Seasonally we’ll follow the same pattern as elsewhere which means our curve (already past peak in la county) will come down though slowly.  Kids may not be back in school this year and maybe hybrid and shut down for parts of next but sports and schools will resume (but be disrupted by periodic outbreaks).   A lot depends on whether the other vaccines get approved and when and if so we’ll be cranking it

but I think you are right about some things, especially California. Things won’t be back to normal til after the 2021-2022 flu season. I have a hard time seeing tournaments and away camps this summer particularly without vaccines for the younger. People who had settled on 6 weeks-a season-the election-new year-a year of this will crack. The damage to the economy is being vastly understated and held in stasis by the federal covid policy but that bubble just keeps getting bigger and bigger since money has nowhere else to go right now. Even if newsom gets recalled (and he should) it will come too late to do much good.  Then towards the end of 2021 we get the vaccine wars

2020: I’m the worst most scary most awful year ever

2031: here...hold my beer


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

crush said:


> Yes, this is typical of some and one of the main reasons I came on here.  They think I was mad because my dd was snubbed.  Sad indeed.  Notice no one attacks my message?  They call me dumbs dumbs, moron, idiot, dam fool, crazy father, club hopper, black listed and so many other lovely words.  Like I said so many times to these pervs who take advantage of kids and their parents, I will NEVER STOP IT!!!!!


yeah I know. Get it. I’m more interested in the why of it all because only then can we fix it. My brief stint helping out with the youth soccer development task force convinced me more than fancy slogans and pilot programs needed. The rot in youth soccer and youth sports in general does run deep. And not much ever came of the task force....after initial enthusiasm it just petered out (ha!)


----------



## crush (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Things will get better.  Within two months for example well see seniors start to crawl out of their exiles. Now that California has actually moved to vaccinate seniors the death rate will start to drop in March. Seasonally we’ll follow the same pattern as elsewhere which means our curve (already past peak in la county) will come down though slowly.  Kids may not be back in school this year and maybe hybrid and shut down for parts of next but sports and schools will resume (but be disrupted by periodic outbreaks).   A lot depends on whether the other vaccines get approved and when and if so we’ll be cranking it
> 
> but I think you are right about some things, especially California. Things won’t be back to normal til after the 2021-2022 flu season. I have a hard time seeing tournaments and away camps this summer particularly without vaccines for the younger. People who had settled on 6 weeks-a season-the election-new year-a year of this will crack. The damage to the economy is being vastly understated and held in stasis by the federal covid policy but that bubble just keeps getting bigger and bigger since money has nowhere else to go right now. Even if newsom gets recalled (and he should) it will come too late to do much good.  Then towards the end of 2021 we get the vaccine wars
> 
> ...


Were all getting a taste of what the future without God looks like.  Darkness is upon us Grace.  No laws or order.  Grab & Go!!!  Fear, terror, torture, war, stealing, cheating, killing 63,000,000 babies before their born, 800,000 kids missing in our country and were scared?  What about the kids?  How scared do you think they are?  We have coaches calling woman all sorts of names.  Fat shaming and so much more BS.  Who wants this dead corps anyways?  This is dead and we will all experience a new birth unlike anything you've witnessed.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> but I think you are right about some things, especially California. Things won’t be back to normal til after the 2021-2022 flu season.


"But, Joe Biden is pushing a 100-day mask challenge as part of his campaign to combat COVID-19, and some experts want masks to be worn forever.

Experts like Dr. Fauci, for example, are saying that masks should be worn even after vaccination.

This leads to an important question:* if masks are worn to prevent the spread of infection, why would you need to wear one if you’ve been vaccinated, or have already had the virus?*

The new team left talking point is that the vaccine won’t change a thing, *so the new mandate being proposed is that we continue wearing them*.

And not just one: multiple.

Linsey Marr, an expert in virus transmission at Virginia Tech, told the New York Times that “double masks” is the way to go.

“If you combine multiple layers, you start achieving pretty high efficiencies of blocking the virus,” she said.

A Boston University physician said that despite the vaccine, masks will be around for a while.

“Masks are going to be with us for a really long time,” Elissa Schechter-Perkins told Chalkbeat. “Especially because we know kids are not going to be vaccinated right away, and masks are a really strong protective measure.”

Joe Biden’s senior COVID-19 adviser, Andy Slavitt,* urged less interaction for kids: “We should be more careful with kids. They should circulate less or will become vectors. *Like mosquitos carrying a tropical disease. Of course, they can become sick themselves this way. I’m not sure what I would say about schools besides wishing Trump had built testing up.”

*Children are perhaps the most affected by the masks and lockdowns*, having their development stunted for a year – and now maybe longer.

*But, data shows that children don’t tend to contract or transmit the virus easily."









						PERPETUAL MASKS? Experts Call for Masks Even After Vaccination | Human Events
					

Masks have become a critical part of our new day-to-day pandemic lifestyle. Whether it's a run-of-the-mill blue surgical mask or one with sequins to match your outfit, everyone wears one to help stop the spread of COVID-19.




					humanevents.com
				



*


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 21, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Wait, are we debating if common core is better/worse than what we did in the "olden" days? Honestly I don't even know what's going on here.


That means you are in the right place.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> yeah I wonder what it is about sports in general and soccer in particular that attracts these types to coaching?
> 
> on the boys or on the girls side?  Because on the girls side woah that’s how he’s talk about someone’s dd?


They are in a position to have power and "payback" all those wedgies they got as a kid?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Looks like Biden himself, not just the grandkids, broke his own mask mandate hours after signing it.  He joins a long list of notable COVID rule breakers including Newsom, Pelosi, Lightfoot, Fergueson, Fauci, Cuomo, De Blasio, Whitmer, Pritzker, Trudeau.









						Biden spotted maskless on federal property hours after signing mandate
					

President Biden faced criticism for removing his face mask while visiting the Lincoln Memorial on Wednesday night – hours after signing an executive order requiring masks on federal property.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

The timing is very suspicious but I don't ultimately buy into the conspiracy theory.  That said, some of us have been saying this for months now.  I doubt the US is going to revise how it counts the deaths, though....too much money at stake for too many stakeholders.









						TOTAL COINCIDENCE ALERT: C19 Diagnostic Criteria Tightened by WHO on Biden Inauguration Day!
					

Well, what are the odds? It just so happens that—on the very day Joe Biden took office—the World Health Organization also released new guidelines ratcheting up the diagnostic criteria for COVID-19....




					redstate.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "But, Joe Biden is pushing a 100-day mask challenge as part of his campaign to combat COVID-19, and some experts want masks to be worn forever.
> 
> Experts like Dr. Fauci, for example, are saying that masks should be worn even after vaccination.
> 
> ...


Here's an opinion. The ideas of "masks indefinitely" or "two masks are better than one" are coming from elites who have a parochial view that is not representative of our population. On top of that, anyone who questions these edicts is branded an "anti-masker" who doesn't care about his fellow man or woman. So, many people just don't challenge these views. I have traveled a bit and even in states that are doing considerably better than CA despite the harsher restrictions in CA, masks are worn inside and that's about it. I don't see this fervor in the general population - just with a bunch of eggheads who are getting a lot of attention now and appear to enjoy it. I have no problem with them stating their beliefs, I just don't see either of those two ideas becoming mainstream in the US.


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 21, 2021)

@Grace T. Did you see your acquaintances recent slip up:









						Cruz Roasted For Tweet That Appears To Reveal His Ignorance About The Paris Climate Agreement
					

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) mocked Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) early Thursday for wrongly suggesting that a multinational pact on climate change — the Paris Agreement — was designed to serve "



					talkingpointsmemo.com
				




This one definitely made me laugh out loud.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 21, 2021)

EOTL said:


> It’s interesting that you’re so upset with CA’s vaccine roll out plan, yet it’s crickets from you about the federal government’s complete lack of one.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yet 45 other states are doing well.   Nice try....let’s hope Biden clears it up.  But I’m sure CA will still fumble the ball yet again.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> @Grace T. Did you see your acquaintances recent slip up:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


a.  we've been on cordial terms but were never exactly friendly.  Goes back to his conduct around a sangria bowl I was mixing years ago.
b. he always puts his foot in his mouth.  always did.  
c. while he said it ineloquently, I get the message he's trying to say.  He cares more about the elitists intellectuals in Paris than the factory worker in Pittsburg.  AOC is smart enough to know what he's trying to say and is just using a rhetorical trap (kinda of like what our friend espola likes to do) and then bending his words to suit her agenda.
d. also twitter...not exactly the best instrument for precision.
e. while overstated I do think he has a point.
f. there's no basis to say he incited, particularly coming from AOC and her failure to condemn the antifa rioters 
g. we're going to ping pong in and out of the Paris Accords depending whether its a D or an R admin from now on.  It's become a redline for both political parties.  No nominee can win without being on the "right" side.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 21, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> @Grace T. Did you see your acquaintances recent slip up:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Ted Cruz went to Princeton and Harvard.  The AOC went to Boston College and we could spend an entire day mocking the bullshit that’s exited her mouth in the short time she’s been anything other than a waitress.


----------



## EOTL (Jan 21, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Yet 45 other states are doing well.   Nice try....let’s hope Biden clears it up.  But I’m sure CA will still fumble the ball yet again.


Actually 38 states are doing worse than CA with respect to death rate. It is not surprising, however, that CA faces much greater inefficiencies and logistical challenges than other states given that CA actually has a lot more people and geography to deal with. Of course it hasn’t been perfect, but expecting that CA will be able to get vaccine distributed as efficiently as other states ignores the obvious. I get that you’re looking for anything you can seize on that seems facially helpful for your pre-determined perspective. I get it that magats are simpletons who don’t care about facts or reasons why anything is happening. I get that if Gavin Newsom sneezes you’ll blame him for every covid death in CA, while simultaneously claiming no one dies of covid in other states. Reality and thoughtful consideration of anything are simply beyond your grasp, either because you’re magat dumb or Qanon crazy.


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like Biden himself, not just the grandkids, broke his own mask mandate hours after signing it.  He joins a long list of notable COVID rule breakers including Newsom, Pelosi, Lightfoot, Fergueson, Fauci, Cuomo, De Blasio, Whitmer, Pritzker, Trudeau.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Maybe Biden is distracted by this:









						Report: Biden Admin Discovers Trump Had Zero Plans For COVID Vaccine Distribution
					

As they were settling into the White House on Wednesday, Biden administration officials were reportedly stunned to discover that President Joe Biden's predecessor didn't have a plan with regards to…



					talkingpointsmemo.com
				




The next several years will be fun. Republicans are going to have to do some serious soul searching; "Do we try to keep the crazy Trump base or not? We have to in order to win any future elections, but Trump is already talking about creating his own party. Can we even get his base at this point? I mean militias, conspiracy theorists, white supremacists, etc aren't that bad, right? I mean it really wasn't insurrection, was it? Wait, the Proud Boys don't like Trump anymore. They think he's weak. Is this our cue?"  

Anyone have good popcorn tips?


----------



## EOTL (Jan 21, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Maybe Biden is distracted by this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What Republicans will do is blame the current administration for every single problem that actually arises from Mr. Magat Marmalade Magoo’s complete and utter incompetence. Republicans in Congress are thrilled Diaper Donnie lost because they couldn’t cope with four more years of watching their country go down the shitter with no one to blame besides themselves. Now they can blame Democrats for the mess caused by their four years of collaboration and lack of spines necessary to stand up to the Rotten Impeached Peach-of-S**t.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Maybe Biden is distracted by this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I agree with your analysis of the Republican Party's dilemma.  It has a bit of a partisan blue bent to it, but you've hit all the major problems.  Unless they find an Anthony who can give an "I've come not to praise Caesar but to bury him" speech, I think they have a real tough time on the Presidential and Senate level (in the House, you just have to run against the other guy).  The Ds have their own problems if/when Biden passes or goes 25....the coalition of the well off and the not well off is inherently unstable and has been sort of held together with the rope of racial politics.

The article you cite though is patently false.  There has been a federal plan to date.  We are almost at 1 million doses per day so Biden's plan of 100 million doses amounts to little more than keep doing what we are doing without any major screw ups and ramp it up a little.  It's a goalpost which we were on track to already meet.  There is also a federal plan...but it relies on the states doing most of the distribution.  The entire article is mostly spin and trying to set up expectations by the Biden staffers: "oh poor us....look at the mess....we have to start from scratch" which will later turn into "we achieved 100 million without any help from the Trump administration".  The article doesn't even have any analysis, just spin from Biden staffers who are spinning for obvious self-serving interests.  I'm sure BTW when seasonality and vaccines bring the cases down 100 days from now they'll cheer the mask mandate worked!

The tidbit which is concerning is that the comments suggest they plan to take away vaccine distribution from the states.  Remember the Trump admin considered doing this...handing it over to the guard.  The thing that stopped them from doing it was the refrigeration required by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and the training it would take to get people to handle it properly without spoiling the vaccine.  It would take the Biden admin 100 days to get that up and running at least (by which point we are at 1/4 of the country vaccinated anyways).  The only way they managed to do that is if we get approval quickly of the AZ or J&J vaccines for which refrigeration is not that much of an issue.  Even then, they'll be stumbling over the states (some of which have already quite efficient but down and dirty systems getting the job done)


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I agree with your analysis of the Republican Party's dilemma.  It has a bit of a partisan blue bent to it, but you've hit all the major problems.  Unless they find an Anthony who can give an "I've come not to praise Caesar but to bury him" speech, I think they have a real tough time on the Presidential and Senate level (in the House, you just have to run against the other guy).  The Ds have their own problems if/when Biden passes or goes 25....the coalition of the well off and the not well off is inherently unstable and has been sort of held together with the rope of racial politics.
> 
> The article you cite though is patently false.  There has been a federal plan to date.  We are almost at 1 million doses per day so Biden's plan of 100 million doses amounts to little more than keep doing what we are doing without any major screw ups and ramp it up a little.  It's a goalpost which we were on track to already meet.  There is also a federal plan...but it relies on the states doing most of the distribution.  The entire article is mostly spin and trying to set up expectations by the Biden staffers: "oh poor us....look at the mess....we have to start from scratch" which will later turn into "we achieved 100 million without any help from the Trump administration".  The article doesn't even have any analysis, just spin from Biden staffers who are spinning for obvious self-serving interests.  I'm sure BTW when seasonality and vaccines bring the cases down 100 days from now they'll cheer the mask mandate worked!
> 
> The tidbit which is concerning is that the comments suggest they plan to take away vaccine distribution from the states.  Remember the Trump admin considered doing this...handing it over to the guard.  The thing that stopped them from doing it was the refrigeration required by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and the training it would take to get people to handle it properly without spoiling the vaccine.  It would take the Biden admin 100 days to get that up and running at least (by which point we are at 1/4 of the country vaccinated anyways).  The only way they managed to do that is if we get approval quickly of the AZ or J&J vaccines for which refrigeration is not that much of an issue.  Even then, they'll be stumbling over the states (some of which have already quite efficient but down and dirty systems getting the job done)


forgot to attached....apologies



			https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-01-14/us-covid-vaccine-rollout-nears-1-million-doses-per-day


----------



## crush (Jan 21, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> we're going to ping pong in and out of the Paris Accords depending whether its a D or an R admin from now on. It's become a redline for both political parties. No nominee can win without being on the "right" side.


Here is the one thing we should all agree on or actually DEMAND. 

IF the US is going to be bound to do certain things as it relates to other countries...ie a treaty. That per our constitution has to be approved by the US Senate. Obama knew it wasn't going to pass so he tried to do it on an executive level. Because it wasn't binding, Trump was able to rescind it. 

Stuff like that has to be approved by the US Senate. If it can't pass the senate so be it. If it does, it prevents future Presidents from playing around with it. 

We should demand our parties play by the rules. If you want a treaty...pass it the way it is supposed to be done.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> anything other than a waitress


Bartender. 

Bar tenders are a lot smarter. Ask Sam Malone. AOC is more like Coach/Woody...except not as smart, not as funny, and not nearly as likeable.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> The next several years will be fun. Republicans are going to have to do some serious soul searching; "Do we try to keep the crazy Trump base or not? We have to in order to win any future elections, but Trump is already talking about creating his own party. Can we even get his base at this point? I mean militias, conspiracy theorists, white supremacists, etc aren't that bad, right? I mean it really wasn't insurrection, was it? Wait, the Proud Boys don't like Trump anymore. They think he's weak. Is this our cue?"
> 
> Anyone have good popcorn tips?


As GraceT points out, that article is complete spin. You should know better. 

The vaccine is already being distributed. That by itself tells you there is a plan in place. Biden's plan seems to be a continuation of what the Trump plan was. 

Being that this is new and on an unprecedented scale, and the fact that it is government, bet on the fact that they will screw up at first. And this will be on the Fed and State level. Over time they will adjust as they always do. The leviathan moves slowly and it takes awhile to get it going in the right direction.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Here is the one thing we should all agree on or actually DEMAND.
> 
> IF the US is going to be bound to do certain things as it relates to other countries...ie a treaty. That per our constitution has to be approved by the US Senate. Obama knew it wasn't going to pass so he tried to do it on an executive level. Because it wasn't binding, Trump was able to rescind it.
> 
> ...


The problem is treaties require 2/3 to approve and gain the force of law.  Treaties these days are so complicated you are never going to get 2/3 on anything....o.k. they did override Trump's DoD bill only to get snapped in the face with twitter's moves.  A compromise could be to revise the Constitution so the President can't enter into these agreements and must get a majority of both the House and Senate, but then the Paris Accords might have actually passed (and would probably have if not subject to fillibuster).


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> As GraceT points out, that article is complete spin. You should know better.
> 
> The vaccine is already being distributed. That by itself tells you there is a plan in place. Biden's plan seems to be a continuation of what the Trump plan was.
> 
> Being that this is new and on an unprecedented scale, and the fact that it is government, bet on the fact that they will screw up at first. And this will be on the Fed and State level. Over time they will adjust as they always do. The leviathan moves slowly and it takes awhile to get it going in the right direction.


Come on man!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352348183104540672


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 21, 2021)

EOTL said:


> Actually 38 states are doing worse than CA with respect to death rate. It is not surprising, however, that CA faces much greater inefficiencies and logistical challenges than other states given that CA actually has a lot more people and geography to deal with. Of course it hasn’t been perfect, but expecting that CA will be able to get vaccine distributed as efficiently as other states ignores the obvious. I get that you’re looking for anything you can seize on that seems facially helpful for your pre-determined perspective. I get it that magats are simpletons who don’t care about facts or reasons why anything is happening. I get that if Gavin Newsom sneezes you’ll blame him for every covid death in CA, while simultaneously claiming no one dies of covid in other states. Reality and thoughtful consideration of anything are simply beyond your grasp, either because you’re magat dumb or Qanon crazy.


So....you’re gonna just go ahead and make up your own argument chock full of insults and no relevant opinions because you can’t argue my point on merit?

Pretty typical....next!


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Come on, man!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352377367923208193


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem is treaties require 2/3 to approve and gain the force of law.  Treaties these days are so complicated you are never going to get 2/3 on anything....o.k. they did override Trump's DoD bill only to get snapped in the face with twitter's moves.  A compromise could be to revise the Constitution so the President can't enter into these agreements and must get a majority of both the House and Senate, but then the Paris Accords might have actually passed (and would probably have if not subject to fillibuster).


Article V
The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A compromise could be to revise the Constitution so the President can't enter into these agreements


As you know, amending the Constitution is designed to be tough. 

What needs to happen is that the Senate demand that the rules be followed. Or if the Senate doesn't demand, then the constituents have to demand. 

We drift further and further into an imperial presidency. The House/Senate over the past few decades have really not held the executive in check so to speak.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> As you know, amending the Constitution is designed to be tough.
> 
> What needs to happen is that the Senate demand that the rules be followed. Or if the Senate doesn't demand, then the constituents have to demand.
> 
> We drift further and further into an imperial presidency. The House/Senate over the past few decades have really not held the executive in check so to speak.


What rules are you talking about here?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> As you know, amending the Constitution is designed to be tough.
> 
> What needs to happen is that the Senate demand that the rules be followed. Or if the Senate doesn't demand, then the constituents have to demand.
> 
> We drift further and further into an imperial presidency. The House/Senate over the past few decades have really not held the executive in check so to speak.


Agree, but we got here because treaties became enormously impossible to get through the supermajority and the Senate effectively has stopped functioning. The House continues to push off discretion to the executive.  And then you had Obama who got frustrated with his inability to push his agenda through Congress and decided to go around it.  Trump then did the same times 2x.  Biden did the same and undid Trump.  Now the comical part is that the Rs are going to sue Biden for undoing Trump's orders and the courts you'll recall limited Trump's ability to undo Biden's orders.  It's a big hot mess. 

Congressional government only functions if you have a broad consensus and Rs and Ds are basically living in separate worlds right now.  Under a parliamentary system, the winner could cram down the agenda (including treaties) but in the US that would have probably brought us to war 4 years ago (or at least the secession of California).


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> What rules are you talking about here?


Well in the case of the Paris Accords (Treaty) they didn't call Obama on the fact it is a treaty and he cannot unilaterally bind the US to any deal such as that without Senate approval. 

There are other examples from other presidents as well in terms of actions they have taken which are the in the domain of the House/Senate.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

Inquiring minds want to know. I did at least.

"One of the early indicators of imminent SARS-CoV-2 infection is a sudden and complete loss of smell and taste. Often, these symptoms persist long after infection has been seemingly cleared. How might a virus like this get into the nervous system, and why is the olfactory/gustatory system so specifically targeted?"









						How does SARS-CoV-2 get in your head and destroy your sense of smell?
					

One of the early indicators of imminent SARS-CoV-2 infection is a sudden and complete loss of smell and taste. Often, these symptoms persist long after infection has been seemingly cleared. How might a virus like this get into the nervous system, and why is the olfactory/gustatory system so...




					medicalxpress.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well in the case of the Paris Accords (Treaty) they didn't call Obama on the fact it is a treaty and he cannot unilaterally bind the US to any deal such as that without Senate approval.


By the way if we didn't have a press in the tank for one party, they would have called him on it. They move public opinion. Had they said, this deal HAS to go through the Senate, then it would have been sent to the Senate (and to be honest likely died there). 

Instead the press by and large was very excited about the Paris Accords and skipped any messy details such as the fact that in order to be binding it has to go through the Senate. 

I guess when you are helping to save the world, we can ignore minor inconveniences such as the US Constitution.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 21, 2021)

EOTL said:


> What Republicans will do is blame the current administration for every single problem that actually arises from Mr. Magat Marmalade Magoo’s complete and utter incompetence. Republicans in Congress are thrilled Diaper Donnie lost because they couldn’t cope with four more years of watching their country go down the shitter with no one to blame besides themselves. Now they can blame Democrats for the mess caused by their four years of collaboration and lack of spines necessary to stand up to the Rotten Impeached Peach-of-S**t.


You mean the way libtards have cried about every single thing Trump said or did for 4-years?  Yeah, we’re pretty familiar with that.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Bartender.
> 
> Bar tenders are a lot smarter. Ask Sam Malone. AOC is more like Coach/Woody...except not as smart, not as funny, and not nearly as likeable.


Good point.  Waitresses have to take notes.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way if we didn't have a press in the tank for one party, they would have called him on it. They move public opinion. Had they said, this deal HAS to go through the Senate, then it would have been sent to the Senate (and to be honest likely died there).
> 
> Instead the press by and large was very excited about the Paris Accords and skipped any messy details such as the fact that in order to be binding it has to go through the Senate.
> 
> I guess when you are helping to save the world, we can ignore minor inconveniences such as the US Constitution.


The story of the 20th century has can be summarized with 1 concept.  The left since Woodrow Wilson has wanted to modernize the rickety US Constitution.  Other governments had more modern ones and we were stuck with the old one which was hard to amend.  The low hanging fruit was  the progressive Constitutional Amendments.  The New Deal came next once they got the Supreme Court to bend.  Then reading rights and penumbras into the Constitution.  Now the EOs around Congress.  The Rs have by and large been originalists and reverential towards the original Constitution and it's sort of what unites those on the right, from libertarians, to establishmentarians to all but the most extreme Trumpists.  We've hit the limit of where we can go with this strategy.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The story of the 20th century has can be summarized with 1 concept.  The left since Woodrow Wilson has wanted to modernize the rickety US Constitution.  Other governments had more modern ones and we were stuck with the old one which was hard to amend.  The low hanging fruit was  the progressive Constitutional Amendments.  The New Deal came next once they got the Supreme Court to bend.  Then reading rights and penumbras into the Constitution.  Now the EOs around Congress.  The Rs have by and large been originalists and reverential towards the original Constitution and it's sort of what unites those on the right, from libertarians, to establishmentarians to all but the most extreme Trumpists.  We've hit the limit of where we can go with this strategy.


I'm glad I don't have to grade that paper.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm glad I don't have to grade that paper.


I could tell a story on this.......just grateful never had someone like you as a teach


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I could tell a story on this.......


Which of the post-Wilson Amendments are you criticizing?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Which of the post-Wilson Amendments are you criticizing?


I'm not, hence the glad you weren't my teach.  I'm observing, not criticizing.

If I did have the great misfortune of having you as a teach, and you did assign me an amendment to criticize, after sighing about the great decline in the intellectual fortitude of my various instructors from their lofty heights over the years, I would no doubt pick prohibition.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm not, hence the glad you weren't my teach.  I'm observing, not criticizing.
> 
> If I did have the great misfortune of having you as a teach, and you did assign me an amendment to criticize, after sighing about the great decline in the intellectual fortitude of my various instructors from their lofty heights over the years, I would no doubt pick prohibition.


"reading rights and penumbras into the Constitution"  -- Any meat on those bones?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> "reading rights and penumbras into the Constitution"  -- Any meat on those bones?


For starters, Roe.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For starters, Roe.


Not much meat in that response.

Here's a starting point -- at the time of the adoption of the Constitution, none of the then-13 states had a law that prohibited abortion.


----------



## N00B (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Not much meat in that response.
> 
> Here's a starting point -- at the time of the adoption of the Constitution, none of the then-13 states had a law that prohibited abortion.


Don’t doubt that all of them had laws regarding murder.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Looks like the Olympic Games will be cancelled.









						Japan looks for a way out of Tokyo Olympics because of Covid
					

The Japanese government has privately concluded that the Tokyo Olympics will have to be cancelled because of the coronavirus, and the focus is now on securing




					www.thetimes.co.uk


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Not much meat in that response.
> 
> Here's a starting point -- at the time of the adoption of the Constitution, none of the then-13 states had a law that prohibited abortion.



You sure about that?  I'll pull and espola and say "source"?  The Romans, for example, had laws regulating abortion.  I'm pretty sure the Hebrews did too but I admit to not having a source.

You made the liberal case. The Constitution needed to evolve to address this issue, even though there isn't written into the Constitution an express right to privacy.  The conservatives would rightly point out there is no right to privacy written into the Constitution and if the people wanted such a right the Constitution should be amended to address the issue.  The liberals would reply that's too difficult given the stated methods.  The conservatives would respond, fine, but you can't just give this right to rewrite the Constitution to a bunch of unelected judges.  The liberals respond well how else do you get some modern principles into the Constitution.  And the end result is you have a war for seats on the Supreme Court because they alone get to interpret/rewrite (depending on your point of view) the Constitution.  Hence, Bork, Thomas, Estrada, Souter, Garland, Kavanaugh, Barrett.

p.s.  I'd be very disappointed if I had the great misfortune to have you as my Con Law teacher.  This is pretty basic law school 102  stuff on the dynamics of conservative/liberal arguements re Roe.  You might need to go back for a remedial course.

p.p.s. @dad4 I totally understand now how you feel when I try and argue math with you.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You sure about that?  I'll pull and espola and say "source"?  The Romans, for example, had laws regulating abortion.  I'm pretty sure the Hebrews did too but I admit to not having a source.


I have had this discussion before.  There are many sources for the history part -- here is one --

Abortion was not just legal—it was a safe, condoned, and practiced procedure in colonial America and common enough to appear in the legal and medical records of the period. Official abortion laws did not appear on the books in the United States until 1821, and abortion before quickening did not become illegal until the 1860s. If a woman living in New England in the 17th or 18th centuries wanted an abortion, no legal, social, or religious force would have stopped her.









						Scarlet Letters: Getting the History of Abortion and Contraception Right
					

Despite anti-abortion activists’ rhetoric, abortion and contraception have been legally practiced in America since the Pilgrim’s arrival.




					www.americanprogress.org


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

I would pick the 17


Grace T. said:


> I'm not, hence the glad you weren't my teach.  I'm observing, not criticizing.
> 
> If I did have the great misfortune of having you as a teach, and you did assign me an amendment to criticize, after sighing about the great decline in the intellectual fortitude of my various instructors from their lofty heights over the years, I would no doubt pick prohibition.


I would pick the 17th.

Prior to that senators had to advocate for what was in the best interest of their state.

Released of that, the Senate has become much more concerned about federal issues. They were much more constrained when the state legislatures had control over them.

My belief is that once released from state oversight is where we have seen the power of the federal government overwhelm the wishes of the state governments


----------



## crush (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Not much meat in that response.
> 
> Here's a starting point -- at the time of the adoption of the Constitution, *none of the then-13 states had a law that prohibited abortion*.


Why no law Professor?


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You made the liberal case.
> /QUOTE]
> 
> All I did was state a true fact -- one of the basic tenets of classic conservatism.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> I have had this discussion before.  There are many sources for the history part -- here is one --
> 
> Abortion was not just legal—it was a safe, condoned, and practiced procedure in colonial America and common enough to appear in the legal and medical records of the period. Official abortion laws did not appear on the books in the United States until 1821, and abortion before quickening did not become illegal until the 1860s. If a woman living in New England in the 17th or 18th centuries wanted an abortion, no legal, social, or religious force would have stopped her.
> 
> ...


'
Don't know enough about the period to dispute the facts but I'll pull an espola and question the source: American Progress is the best you can do on that.

But in any case the existence of it either is irrelevant to the conservative/liberal dialectic on the issue of the right to privacy.  Again, the issue  (as usual) is going over your head.  Just because something exists or is legal at the time of the Constitution doesn't make it Constitutional.  The question at stake in Roe was whether the states COULD prohibit the right.  As you point out, apparently they did in the 1860s implying that for 100 years the states held such a right.  The states also held the right to make it perfectly legal, which from your source apparently at least some did.  But there was nothing in the Constitution that expressly said because of the right to privacy the states could not limit abortion.  The liberals said, citing earlier precedent on the right to privacy, notably Griswold, that implied within the Constitution is a right to privacy, that the right to privacy protected abortions, but that such right was not an absolute right.  The cons said the libs were just reading a right into the Constitution which wasn't there and that the matter should be left to the states to decide (not that the Constitution said all abortions were prohibited).  As a result we got the battle for Supreme Court justices, because they would interpret/rewrite the Constitution (depending on your point of view) to suit their greater ideological trends (big modern progressive Constitution v. small literal strictly read Constitution).  Again, all really basic con law 102 stuff.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

o.k. which leads to the next question; so?

Trust me if I had done that in my law school classes (and I'm pretty sure I did at some point) the professor would have berated me.  Hence, why I'd have to sigh in the hypothetical posed where you were the teacher.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> p.s.  I'd be very disappointed if I had the great misfortune to have you as my Con Law teacher.  This is pretty basic law school 102  stuff on the dynamics of conservative/liberal arguements re Roe.  You might need to go back for a remedial course.


Speaking of Con Law, you made no response to Section V.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Speaking of Con Law, you made no response to Section V.


What about it?  You just quoted the section.  You want a gold star? I figured you were Magooing and the nature of the conversation went over your head.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I would pick the 17
> 
> I would pick the 17th.
> 
> ...


That's an odd argument.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> That's an odd argument.


Not really.  He's not the only one that made it.  It's pretty de rigueur argument in Federalist circles. IIRC my elder brother wrote a law review note on this very point, which I believe our former President 2 back excoriated him for.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> What about it?  You just quoted the section.  You want a gold star? I figured you were Magooing and the nature of the conversation went over your head.


You stated that since getting a 2/3 agreement in the Senate was too difficult, we could instead  "compromise" on changing the Constitution, which in every Amendment approved to date has required approval of 2/3 of both Houses of Congress plus 3/4 of the state Legislatures.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> '
> Don't know enough about the period to dispute the facts but I'll pull an espola and question the source: American Progress is the best you can do on that.


What did they get wrong?









						Abortion in American History
					

The year after abortion was legalized in New York State, the maternal-mortality rate there dropped by 45 percent—one reason why legalization can be seen as “a public-health triumph.”




					www.theatlantic.com
				












						The surprising history of abortion in the United States
					

Abortion was once simply part of life in the United States. Then, for about 100 years, it was illegal. How we got there and got to where we are now may surprise you.




					www.cnn.com
				








__





						Roe v Wade: US Abortion Law History Explained | HistoryExtra
					

In a landmark decision, the US Supreme Court has overturned the nationwide legal right to abortion – a right enshrined almost half a century ago, in 1973, through the cast of Roe v Wade. Here, Professor Mary Ziegler charts the history of abortion law in the USA before and after Roe v Wade, and...



					www.historyextra.com
				








__





						A Brief History of Abortion Law in America
					

For America's first century, abortion wasn’t banned in a single US state. It's only become a hot-button issue in recent decades.




					billmoyers.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> You stated that since getting a 2/3 agreement in the Senate was too difficult, we could instead  "compromise" on changing the Constitution, which in every Amendment approved to date has required approval of 2/3 of both Houses of Congress plus 3/4 of the state Legislatures.


Oh my expression was purely theoretical as to how about to fix the mechanism.  No doubt the "compromise" would be greater than just treaty ratification (I'm talking on the level of a major Constitutional convention to fix things).  Theoretically it would be easier to get the parties to agree to an abstraction of a treaty (knowing control would swing back and forth between the Rs and Ds) than just one side caving in on a particular treaty, like the Paris Accords.

But yes, I agree, in the current environment I don't see that happening, outside of some high school students' theoretical model US Constitutional Convention.  I also don't see the Senate wresting back control


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> What did they get wrong?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not going to read all that just for you.  For dad I might....for you don't really care particularly since you have a tendency to Magoo things.  If you want to make an individual point, I'm happy to discuss and talk you through it.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Looks like my friend nailed the LA County curve.  Owe him a drink.  I was off by 2 weeks.  I thought Christmas.



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352458839489036290


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Not going to read all that just for you.  For dad I might....for you don't really care particularly since you have a tendency to Magoo things.  If you want to make an individual point, I'm happy to discuss and talk you through it.


I made an individual point when I stated that there were no abortion laws when the Constitution was written.  You expressed skepticism, so rather than just respond that it was something that I knew already and that you should have learned in law school, I cited a source (in which you have found no error).


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> I made an individual point when I stated that there were no abortion laws when the Constitution was written.  You expressed skepticism, so rather than just respond that it was something that I knew already and that you should have learned in law school, I cited a source (in which you have found no error).


We don't do history in law school.  I don't have a background (or much of an interest) in daily life pre Revolutionary war.  My historical interest has always been more biographical (at least as far as that period is concerned)  Arguendo, Ill take your word for it.  Which leads to the question: so what?  The fact you are citing is irrelevant to the nature of the discussion we are having.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We don't do history in law school.  I don't have a background (or much of an interest) in daily life pre Revolutionary war.  My historical interest has always been more biographical (at least as far as that period is concerned)  Arguendo, Ill take your word for it.  Which leads to the question: so what?  The fact you are citing is irrelevant to the nature of the discussion we are having.


You don't consider your post-Wison paragraph to be history?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We don't do history in law school.  I don't have a background (or much of an interest) in daily life pre Revolutionary war.  My historical interest has always been more biographical (at least as far as that period is concerned)  Arguendo, Ill take your word for it.  Which leads to the question: so what?  The fact you are citing is irrelevant to the nature of the discussion we are having.


p.s. a quick google search of the issue revealed that your "fact" is actually in contention.  The issue seems to be that there were no specific abortion laws because courts at the time just assumed that it was the murder of a person.  Admittedly the sources are mostly from pro life source.  But again, it's a historical point that I don't really care about so I don't really care about who is correct on the point.  I won't even post them here because I don't know whether they are right or wrong....it's not my area.  Again, arguendo, I'll take your word for it, but it's irrelevant to the discussion outside of the fevered back and forth between the pro-life pro-right to choose fanatics.



espola said:


> You don't consider your post-Wison paragraph to be history?


No.  Legal theory.  You are Magooing it again.  While a knowledge of the basics of history are useful in certain areas of law school (English history for example is particularly useful in understanding contracts and torts), it's not taught there.  I'm not making a historical point, but a legal/political one.


----------



## crush (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> What did they get wrong?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Have not verified the veracity of this tweet but it's consistent with some things I'm hearing out of education circles and the LA Times piece from the LA Unified Sup.  The unions are beginning to move forward the idea that schools should not be fully reopened until children are vaccinated.  For the 16-18 that may be early-late summer depending when we get the AZ or J&J vaccines approved.  For the 12-16 it's between early fall-winter.  For the under 12s it's increasingly looking like 2022.

@kickingandscreaming as I said before, the emergency will be over in at max 100 days as the elderly get vaccinated.  This is increasingly a political fight,  Expect the same fight in LA County, though the dynamics may shift if Newsom is in fact recalled. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352412101256601607


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> p.s. a quick google search of the issue revealed that your "fact" is actually in contention.


I'm always eager to learn.  Show me.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm always eager to learn.  Show me.


Nah.  You'll say I stand by the sources, almost all of which are pro life.  I don't know if they are reputable or not.  Further, again don't care...the issue is kind of irrelevant to me.  If you really are "eager to learn" take a deep dive into the pro life sources.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nah.  You'll say I stand by the sources, almost all of which are pro life.  I don't know if they are reputable or not.  Further, again don't care...the issue is kind of irrelevant to me.  If you really are "eager to learn" take a deep dive into the pro life sources.


Again (I have lost track of the number of times) you make a statement and then expect me to do your research for you.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Again (I have lost track of the number of times) you make a statement and then expect me to do your research for you.


You're the one who cares about this point.  I don't.  I find it irrelevant.  I've lost track of the number of times you go off on irrelevant tangents because you don't understand what the rest of us are talking about and it goes over your head.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You're the one who cares about this point.  I don't.  I find it irrelevant.  I've lost track of the number of times you go off on irrelevant tangents because you don't understand what the rest of us are talking about and it goes over your head.


You mean like the e scale?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> You mean like the e scale?


Thanks for proving my point by going down another rabbit hole!  You even cite another conversation which 2 of us were having in which you jumped in because you didn't understand what we were talking about.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 21, 2021)

Knock knock- the sad thing is, I think you are both smart, and probably know a lot more than I do about all the things. Build a bridge people! We can do this- lessss go!


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Thanks for proving my point by going down another rabbit hole!  You even cite another conversation which 2 of us were having in which you jumped in because you didn't understand what we were talking about.


Do you see where you jumped to an unwarranted conclusion there?

Here's a hint -- if you want to have a private conversation with someone, an open forum isn't the place to do it.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Knock knock- the sad thing is, I think you are both smart, and probably know a lot more than I do about all the things. Build a bridge people! We can do this- lessss go!


Oh he's really smart.  He's no dumb dumb.  But the issue (maybe because of his age) is he has a tendency to get lost and only gets half the fragment of what's being talked about, hence that certain cartoon character.  I've extended my hand several times to build a bridge but he always insists on being less courteous and/or gracious.  It's why it's funny he was calling out Scott m Shuersom....pot/kettle.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Do you see where you jumped to an unwarranted conclusion there?
> 
> Here's a hint -- if you want to have a private conversation with someone, an open forum isn't the place to do it.


See response above.  I'm not saying it's a private conversation.  I'm saying you have a tendency to get lost, to miss the forest for the trees, of the conversation which is happening.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jan 21, 2021)

espola said:


> That's an odd argument.


It is not when you think about how the loyalty let's say of Senator's changed.

Prior to the passage they were beholden to the interests of their states.

Post they became creatures of Washington. Nationwide interests buy them off now, vs being interested in state power due to that is where their base was.

After the 17th, Senators became beholden to interests in and around Washington vs interests in Phx or Sacramento per say.

This has been one of the reasons the balance between states and feds has tilted heavily towards the feds.

That is a simplistic explanation of what the 17th did.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jan 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You're the one who cares about this point.  I don't.  I find it irrelevant.  I've lost track of the number of times you go off on irrelevant tangents because you don't understand what the rest of us are talking about and it goes over your head.


This is why I stopped responding to E. He goes in circles. Asks rhetorical questions.


----------



## espola (Jan 21, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> This is why I stopped responding to E. He goes in circles. Asks rhetorical questions.


What would this forum be like if rhetorical questions were not allowed?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 22, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> @Grace T. Did you see your acquaintances recent slip up:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


He’s just repeating his dear leader. Stupid runs thick in that crowd.


----------



## crush (Jan 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> See response above.  I'm not saying it's a private conversation.  I'm saying you have a tendency to get lost, to miss the forest for the trees, of the conversation which is happening.


espola was so nice to me when I first came here.  I looked to him for sage advice.  He ignores me now.  Both of you are very intellectual and dam smart.  Many on here are so smart.  I could never compete so I just became a smart ass and then I kick ass on the play ground sports and water sports.  I thrive outside, not inside.  I'm learning how to talk and write without being so emotional and with that chip on my right shoulder.


----------



## crush (Jan 22, 2021)

Biden Press Secretary Already Dodging Questions on How *Biden Will Expand Abortion*

*Kill Bill, Kill Bill, Kill Bill!!!!! *

I guess this makes me a magat because I want to save the lives of innocent children.  Most of these kids wont see the light of day. Some of these beautiful babies will be sold or used for experiments like they do for rats.  Some will have their organs harvested so evil, fat ass men can live longer. Some of are used for__________________________________________________________________and so many other evil and satanic rituals.  Sick sh*t!!!

Her response: “Well, I think we’ll have more to say on the* Mexico City Policy *in the coming days, but I will just take the opportunity to* remind all of you that he is a devout Catholic* and somebody who *attends church regularly.* He started his day *attending church with his family this morning*.

Is she serious?  What a joke!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 22, 2021)

So my boss just told me to prepare to be remote until the fall....into 2022 if Los Angeles County schools don't reopen fully in the fall.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 22, 2021)

espola said:


> Again (I have lost track of the number of times) you make a statement and then expect me to do your research for you.


Typical of the type drawn to trumpism.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Typical of the type drawn to trumpism.


hah that’s funny. I’m an Obama voter. Even campaigned and donated to him. I grew disillusioned though with the way the ds went afterwards particular with lockdowns. Not a trump fan either.  I hope the rs are able to find someone better than him without swinging back to the establishment cronies

 The politician I actually like most is Tulsi. She’s awesome.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 22, 2021)

This is interesting.  Pretty much everywhere in the country is now passed their wave and had a fairly steep peak except: a) northern New England (which seems to be mid rise right now), b) the Pacific NY (from roughly north of San Francisco to Seattle....why is that?), and c) the islands of Puerto Rico and Hawaii.  TX is also still in the balance.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352737824034992129


----------



## espola (Jan 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is interesting.  Pretty much everywhere in the country is now passed their wave and had a fairly steep peak except: a) northern New England (which seems to be mid rise right now), b) the Pacific NY (from roughly north of San Francisco to Seattle....why is that?), and c) the islands of Puerto Rico and Hawaii.  TX is also still in the balance.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1352737824034992129


Looking back through Prof's tweets is illuminating.


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 22, 2021)

espola said:


> Looking back through Prof's tweets is illuminating.


Hey now...their profile does say "college professor"   Pretty funny.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Typical of the type drawn to trumpism.


Does Trump live rent free in your head or did he prepay for a bit?  I need to know when you and your pals will stop crying to take the attention off Biden’s first week of stupidity.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> hah that’s funny. I’m an Obama voter. Even campaigned and donated to him. I grew disillusioned though with the way the ds went afterwards particular with lockdowns. Not a trump fan either.  I hope the rs are able to find someone better than him without swinging back to the establishment cronies
> 
> The politician I actually like most is Tulsi. She’s awesome.


That’s why the libtards buried Tulsi early.  Too sensible and not radically stupid enough.


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Jan 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The politician I actually like most is Tulsi. She’s awesome.


This.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So my boss just told me to prepare to be remote until the fall....into 2022 if Los Angeles County schools don't reopen fully in the fall.


2022!?!? Lord no......


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 22, 2021)

Trump didn't get to any better of a start but so far Biden's Covid management has been lackluster (yeah, I know it's only been a handful of days...hope he finds his feet):

-He did a federal mask mandate only to have he and his family break it hours later.
-His admin then compounded the error by justifying it by saying he was celebrating
-His admin promised to roll out 100M in vaccine only to have it be pointed out we were on track to make that figure in 100 days
-His admin bashed the Trump policy saying they had no distribution plan only to be contradicted by Fauci a few hours later
-He admitted there was not a whole lot we could do to control the course of the pandemic, despite spending months saying Trump failed to control the pandemic (which o.k. he could have said well my admin needs time) but he (and especially Harris) had said they'd actually bring the pandemic under control.
-He hasn't addressed the issues of schools yet in depth (despite moves by some teachers unions to push full in person learning back until 2022 when all kids can be vaccinated and the EU authorization lifted so they can mandate it).
-Though he didn't have a direct role in the treatment of the Guard (that's controlled by Pelosi and the Capitol police), he's been relatively quiet on their treatment and the COVID outbreak taking place among them (Trump to troll the Ds opened up the Trump hotel to deployed Guard and law enforcement)
-His Covid policy seems mainly to ask Congress to print up more money.

On the other hand, it looks like the war in the Republican Party is heating up.  Liz Cheney's career is in its death throws and the knives are out for McConnell.  To get a look at their thinking see the attached.









						Mitch McConnell Needs To Go
					

The idea that Trump incited an insurrection is pure nonsense. It's a lie and Mitch McConnell's parroting of it is disqualifying for leadership.




					thefederalist.com


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Trump didn't get to any better of a start but so far Biden's Covid management has been lackluster (yeah, I know it's only been a handful of days...hope he finds his feet):
> 
> -He did a federal mask mandate only to have he and his family break it hours later.
> -His admin then compounded the error by justifying it by saying he was celebrating
> ...


I'm going to give him a month or so on covid. As a progressive, I'm more focused on other areas as I really think that's where the democratic base will go awry if he doesn't listen. The Bernie crowd will abandon if he doesn't get things done like removing school loan debt, etc. I want to push pressure on Biden, but probably for different reasons than you. At least it's possible with this administration -- Trump was a non-starter. 

On the schooling front, I hope this is an opportunity to pump more money into public schools. Imagine having classrooms capped at 15.  Create more teaching jobs, more jobs to build more schools, and ultimately provide better education.  Seems like there could be some real opportunity there.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 22, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> I'm going to give him a month or so on covid. As a progressive, I'm more focused on other areas as I really think that's where the democratic base will go awry if he doesn't listen. The Bernie crowd will abandon if he doesn't get things done like removing school loan debt, etc. I want to push pressure on Biden, but probably for different reasons than you. At least it's possible with this administration -- Trump was a non-starter.
> 
> On the schooling front, I hope this is an opportunity to pump more money into public schools. Imagine having classrooms capped at 15.  Create more teaching jobs, more jobs to build more schools, and ultimately provide better education.  Seems like there could be some real opportunity there.


Problem is there aren't the votes in the Senate for this.  Anything that goes through will need to be a combination of Collins-Murkowski-Romney-Manchen-Sinema who are hostile to Trumpism but also to progressivism....they aren't progressives.  And they only have 1 or 2 bites using reconciliation for something.  Biden has implied he'll use at least 1 for Covid/stimulus and he wants to try another on immigration.  You are basically predicting that the Bernie crowd will abandon him, which I agree is more likely to happen (hence his executive orders).  In the house as well he only has what is it.....6 votes to play with....


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 22, 2021)

As a counter point to my last post, the pandemic has and will be a story less of the screw up of our political leaders (but yeah, they did/are screwing up), but mostly of our expert classes......








						Special Report: How U.S. CDC missed chances to spot COVID's silent spread
					

In early February, 57 people arrived at a Nebraska military base, among the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the new coronavirus outbreak. U.S. health officials knew very little then about the mysterious new virus, and the quarantined group offered...




					www.reuters.com


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Problem is there aren't the votes in the Senate for this.  Anything that goes through will need to be a combination of Collins-Murkowski-Romney-Manchen-Sinema who are hostile to Trumpism but also to progressivism....they aren't progressives.  And they only have 1 or 2 bites using reconciliation for something.  Biden has implied he'll use at least 1 for Covid/stimulus and he wants to try another on immigration.  You are basically predicting that the Bernie crowd will abandon him, which I agree is more likely to happen (hence his executive orders).  In the house as well he only has what is it.....6 votes to play with....


You may be right.  I guess I'm hopeful that at some point people will finally realize that establishment politicians, on both sides, inherently aren't focused on their constituents.  It's frustrating knowing that if the people knew how much power they actually have this country could be a better place for everyone.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> See response above.  I'm not saying it's a private conversation.  I'm saying you have a tendency to get lost, to miss the forest for the trees, of the conversation which is happening.


You’ve stepped in Magoo Poo...best to take off your shoes, throw them away and move on.....


----------



## crush (Jan 23, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> You’ve stepped in Magoo Poo...best to take off your shoes, throw them away and move on.....


No, keep the shoes on and wipe the sh*t off his door step.  Never give up!!!

*Just Like the Good Old Days: Joe Biden Invades Syria with Convoy of US Troops and Choppers on First Full Day as President*

*Magoo and his side kick EOTL are for fear, death and darkness.  They support war, death & destruction, invasions of another country, no freedom and more and more abortions and no soccer in California.       *


----------



## crush (Jan 23, 2021)




----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Problem is there aren't the votes in the Senate for this.  Anything that goes through will need to be a combination of Collins-Murkowski-Romney-Manchen-Sinema who are hostile to Trumpism but also to progressivism....they aren't progressives.  And they only have 1 or 2 bites using reconciliation for something.  Biden has implied he'll use at least 1 for Covid/stimulus and he wants to try another on immigration.  You are basically predicting that the Bernie crowd will abandon him, which I agree is more likely to happen (hence his executive orders).  In the house as well he only has what is it.....6 votes to play with....


Just to emphasize this, most Americans support progressive policies:









						Working-Class Americans in All States Support Progressive Economic Policies
					

Across U.S. states and the District of Columbia, members of the working class support policies to raise wages, increase taxes on the wealthy, and boost spending on health care, education, and infrastructure.




					www.americanprogressaction.org
				












						Majority of Americans support progressive policies such as higher minimum wage, free college
					

From government-mandated paid maternity leave to tuition free college, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey reveals a surprising American appetite for some very progressive policies.




					www.cnbc.com
				








__





						Loading…
					





					nymag.com
				












						The Three Progressive Policies Voters Seem to Love
					

Even where they don't elect Democrats, voters love minimum-wage hikes, marijuana, and Medicaid expansions.




					slate.com
				




etc....

Republican politicians push broken policies that support trickle down economics and privatization by misdirecting people towards issues around religion, abortion, and immigration. Democrats don't do anything because neoliberals aren't much different than republicans and they just deflect by blaming their inability to get anything done on republicans. We all lose in the end. Funny what power and money can do.


----------



## crush (Jan 23, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Just to emphasize this, most Americans support progressive policies:


I would like to put an emphasis on law & order and I believe most would support.  Most important though is respecting the gift of life and treat others as you would one to be treated.  You must ask yourself this question as your sleeping in you mommy's tummy Nocal from HB.  Do I want to born?  If your answer is "no!!!" then you hate life.  If you answer yes, then you will want other babies in the womb to be born.  This is where life starts.  No more selling baby parts bro.  If we can all agree that this not good but just evil, then we can have a beautiful and very progressive life for all


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Republican politicians push broken policies that support trickle down economics and privatization by misdirecting people towards issues around religion, abortion, and immigration. Democrats don't do anything because neoliberals aren't much different than republicans and they just deflect by blaming their inability to get anything done on republicans. We all lose in the end. Funny what power and money can do.


IIRC surveys of the American public show that they are really very liberal when it comes to economics (who doesn't love free stuff) and really quite conservative when it comes to social issues and law and order.   So, a little bit for both parties to hate.  It's why Trumpism could dominate the electorate if it managed to get free from the trickle down history of the R Party and find a more effective, less crazy person to sell it.


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> IIRC surveys of the American public show that they are really very liberal when it comes to economics (who doesn't love free stuff) and really quite conservative when it comes to social issues and law and order.   So, a little bit for both parties to hate.  It's why Trumpism could dominate the electorate if it managed to get free from the trickle down history of the R Party and find a more effective, less crazy person to sell it.


Then it wouldn't be Trumpism.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

US pretty much avoided a Christmas surge.....



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/23/coronavirus-christmas-surge/


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Then it wouldn't be Trumpism.


Fair.  My point is that Trump is selling a proto-populism.  If someone hits on full populism, the US would be ripe for it (which in its darker forms turns into Peronism or Mussolini type fascism).


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fair.  My point is that Trump is selling a proto-populism.  If someone hits on full populism, the US would be ripe for it (which in its darker forms turns into Peronism or Mussolini type fascism).


Trumpism is a cult of personality, for example --









						Allegan County GOP censures Upton over impeachment vote
					

The Allegan County Republican Party has censured longtime U.S. Rep. Fred Upton and "condemned" his vote to impeach...



					www.hollandsentinel.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Trumpism is a cult of personality, for example --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yup. That’s always been a limitation in populism.  Jackson Peron Franco. Rarely have movements been able to transfer to successors.


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yup. That’s always been a limitation in populism.  Jackson Peron Franco. Rarely have movements been able to transfer to successors.


Franco was a populist?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Then it wouldn't be Trumpism.


Trumpism is predicated by the Donald’s mood and what he feels will favor him at any given moment. Well did, he’s gone now.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fair.  My point is that Trump is selling a proto-populism.  If someone hits on full populism, the US would be ripe for it (which in its darker forms turns into Peronism or Mussolini type fascism).


Populism is just telling people what they want to hear, trump’s forte.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Franco was a populist?


depends on the definition but basic fascism(as opposed to nazi ideology which is based much more on racial identity) can be an extreme offshoot of populism.  See Huskers definition for example. Why so many libs ran around yelling trumps a fascist. And no he’s not gone totally. At a minimum he’ll be trolling the ds for 4 years like he did thanks to the boneheaded treatment of the guard.  Continuing the impeachment will only ensure that.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 23, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> I'm going to give him a month or so on covid. As a progressive, I'm more focused on other areas as I really think that's where the democratic base will go awry if he doesn't listen. The Bernie crowd will abandon if he doesn't get things done like removing school loan debt, etc. I want to push pressure on Biden, but probably for different reasons than you. At least it's possible with this administration -- Trump was a non-starter.
> 
> On the schooling front, I hope this is an opportunity to pump more money into public schools. Imagine having classrooms capped at 15.  Create more teaching jobs, more jobs to build more schools, and ultimately provide better education.  Seems like there could be some real opportunity there.


Don't public schools and their teachers have enough power as it is? There's little about how education in the largest districts was handled during this pandemic that makes me think it's a good idea to have more public school employees.


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> depends on the definition but basic fascism(as opposed to nazi ideology which is based much more on racial identity) can be an extreme offshoot of populism.  See Huskers definition for example. Why so many libs ran around yelling trumps a fascist. And no he’s not gone totally. At a minimum he’ll be trolling the ds for 4 years like he did thanks to the boneheaded treatment of the guard.  Continuing the impeachment will only ensure that.


NONSENSE.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> US pretty much avoided a Christmas surge.....
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/23/coronavirus-christmas-surge/


Isn't this good news?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> depends on the definition but basic fascism(as opposed to nazi ideology which is based much more on racial identity) can be an extreme offshoot of populism.  See Huskers definition for example. Why so many libs ran around yelling trumps a fascist. And no he’s not gone totally. At a minimum he’ll be trolling the ds for 4 years like he did thanks to the boneheaded treatment of the guard.  Continuing the impeachment will only ensure that.











						Historian: Today’s Authoritarian Leaders Aren’t Fascists—But They Are Part of the Same Story
					

"There are historical precedents for what we're living through," argues Ruth Ben-Ghiat




					time.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 23, 2021)

And they take a thinly veiled shot at the education level of Californians. You can't make this up.

CHHS spokeswoman Kate Folmar said projected ICU capacity is based on multiple variables, including available beds and staffing. "These fluid, on-the-ground conditions cannot be boiled down to a single data point — and to do so would mislead and create greater uncertainty for Californians," she said in a statement.

***

*California ignores public records request, keeps coronavirus data hidden*









						California ignores public records request, keeps coronavirus data hidden
					

Gov. Gavin Newsom, despite months-long promises of transparency in his coronavirus decisions, has been keeping secret the data his administration is using to drive state-implemented lockdowns.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> NONSENSE.


"You've done it again, espola!"


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "You've done it again, espola!"


"depends on the definition..."

That's nonsense.  Live with it.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> "depends on the definition..."
> 
> That's nonsense.  Live with it.


thats sometimes the first lesson of the first day in law school (if they aren’t doing the hairy hand). Don’t you remember Clinton and it depends on what the meaning of the word is is?


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> thats sometimes the first lesson of the first day in law school (if they aren’t doing the hairy hand). Don’t you remember Clinton and it depends on what the meaning of the word is is?


You're babbling.

Franco was a military dictator who came to power by overthrowing a popularly-elected government, and who maintained power by oppression of popular dissent.

Put that in your definition.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> You're babbling.
> 
> Franco was a military dictator who came to power by overthrowing a popularly-elected government, and who maintained power by oppression of popular dissent.
> 
> Put that in your definition.


You are confused again

I haven’t put forth a definition.Husker did. You think you are arguing with me but you are really arguing with Husker

this thread began though with populism combines left wing economics with right wing societal policies and law and order. Franco nationalized industries, establish a high minimum wage, education guarantees and employment guarantees and pushed for a policy of self reliance similar to North Korea while at the same time establishing a police state and emphasizing catholic morality. Where I agree with you is that I think fascism is more ideologically organized and less democratic than populism. The Wikipedia article has some good discussion of the variations in populism depending on the definition. My proposition was the same tendencies exist and fascism is just populism on steroids mixed in with some totalitarian seasoning. Huskers definition is much broader

ps who else thinks it’s funny I’m saying trumpism has some things in common with fascism and Espola is defending Trump?


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are confused again
> 
> I haven’t put forth a definition.Husker did. You think you are arguing with me but you are really arguing with Husker
> 
> ...


I asked specifically if Franco was a populist.  "depends on the definition..." was your response.

pps -- no one.


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Don't public schools and their teachers have enough power as it is? There's little about how education in the largest districts was handled during this pandemic that makes me think it's a good idea to have more public school employees.


Not sure about your neck of the woods, but our schools have 25-30 kids per class in elementary school.  It's pretty nutty.  If covid forces this to go down to 15 for social distancing, maybe this could just become the norm going forward.  Considering we're in the 40s by state in spending per pupil, maybe there could be a shift here.  Smaller classroom sizes is just a piece of this.  Anyway, one could hope.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> I asked specifically if Franco was a populist.  "depends on the definition..." was your response.
> 
> pps -- no one.


yeah it does, and yeah you are even though you don’t fully comprehend it defending trump which I at a minimum think is hilarious


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> yeah it does, and yeah you are even though you don’t fully comprehend it defending trump which I at a minimum think is hilarious


In what way have I ever defended Trump?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> In what way have I ever defended Trump?


this is because you can’t follow the discussion. Picture me giving the same disappointed sigh I give whenever the kids have failed to understand an assignment


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> this is because you can’t follow the discussion. Picture me giving the same disappointed sigh I give whenever the kids have failed to understand an assignment


Lies and putdowns -- Is that the example you set for your kids?


----------



## watfly (Jan 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Don't public schools and their teachers have enough power as it is? There's little about how education in the largest districts was handled during this pandemic that makes me think it's a good idea to have more public school employees.


Giving more money to schools without accountability is just flushing money down the drain.  Until the big unions, LAUSD and SDUSD, start putting children first, they don't deserve a penny.  Right now we need to get kids back in school.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Lies and putdowns -- Is that the example you set for your kids?


As to the lies hardly...anyone that knows me knows truth, honesty and transparency are the hallmarks of both my life and political philosophies. If anything I have been criticized repeatedly in my life for being too harsh and too truthful. As to putdowns as I’ve stated I only attack when attacked, disrespect when disrespected, put down when put down.

Disrespect, incivility and confusion the example you set for yours?


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As to the lies hardly...anyone that knows me knows truth, honesty and transparency are the hallmarks of both my life and political philosophies. If anything I have been criticized repeatedly in my life for being too harsh and too truthful. As to putdowns as I’ve stated I only attack when attacked, disrespect when disrespected, put down when put down.
> 
> Disrespect, incivility and confusion the example you set for yours?


In what way have I ever supported Trump?  

The way I see it, you can either provide a concrete example or admit your error and apologize.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> In what way have I ever supported Trump?
> 
> The way I see it, you can either provide a concrete example or admit your error and apologize.


i didn’t say you supported him.  Don’t put words in my mouth. My argument was a critique of trumpism by saying it has aspects in common with Francoism, however remote.  Husker even posted an article making a similar argument. You in turn critiqued my critique saying it was wrong, thereby inadvertently defending Trumpism. You’re just upset you were put in that position so you are now desperately trying every rhetorical trick you know to get out of the box. ^\_(;?)_/^


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> i didn’t say you supported him.  Don’t put words in my mouth. My argument was a critique of trumpism by saying it has aspects in common with Francoism, however remote.  Husker even posted an article making a similar argument. You in turn critiqued my critique saying it was wrong, thereby inadvertently defending Trumpism. You’re just upset you were put in that position so you are now desperately trying every rhetorical trick you know to get out of the box. ^\_(;?)_/^


You have been denying your own words quite a bit lately.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> You have been denying your own words quite a bit lately.


says the man that likes to twist them.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 23, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Not sure about your neck of the woods, but our schools have 25-30 kids per class in elementary school.  It's pretty nutty.  If covid forces this to go down to 15 for social distancing, maybe this could just become the norm going forward.  Considering we're in the 40s by state in spending per pupil, maybe there could be a shift here.  Smaller classroom sizes is just a piece of this.  Anyway, one could hope.


I'm not going to argue about smaller class sizes, but I worry about too much power in one organization. I was a public school teacher - it's not about a lack of appreciation for what they do. However, beyond Covid, there have been multiple experiences that indicate to me that public schools regularly put their self-interests above that of the students and attempt to control access to education under the guise of protecting children from "overbearing" parents. I used to be a big proponent of public schools in general. I judge them on a case by case basis now.


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> says the man that likes to twist them.


I didn't twist anything.

You, on the other hand, have posted lies about me.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't twist anything.
> 
> You, on the other hand, have posted lies about me.


yeah you did.  Point to where I said you “supported trump”.


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> yeah you did.  Point to where I said you “supported trump”.


Maybe for my father I would, but not for you.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Maybe for my father I would, but not for you.


You understand the reference to dad is to @dad4 right? Did that go over your head too?


----------



## espola (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You understand the reference to dad is to @dad4 right? Did that go over your head too?


Looks like I hit the mark.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Looks like I hit the mark.


Nah you just think you’ve found the tunnel but actually have put your cute little car into a barn and have a chicken on your head


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'm not going to argue about smaller class sizes, but I worry about too much power in one organization. I was a public school teacher - it's not about a lack of appreciation for what they do. However, beyond Covid, there have been multiple experiences that indicate to me that public schools regularly put their self-interests above that of the students and attempt to control access to education under the guise of protecting children from "overbearing" parents. I used to be a big proponent of public schools in general. I judge them on a case by case basis now.


Totally hear you.  The teachers at our schools are eager to get kids back in the classroom.  We're hybrid now.  I don't really know what it's like elsewhere, but our district/admin/teachers/etc would climb mountains to get our kids educated.  I think maybe there's a slight disconnect here in what we're debating.  I'm not advocating for more power, but rather more money.  In the near term this would be focused on making the classrooms safer (PPEs, plexiglass, smaller classrooms, etc), but in the long term it would be great if CA wasn't in the 40s on a per pupil spending ranking.  That's pretty embarrassing considering we account for 14% of the GDP and are the 5th largest economic power in the world.


----------



## happy9 (Jan 23, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Totally hear you.  The teachers at our schools are eager to get kids back in the classroom.  We're hybrid now.  I don't really know what it's like elsewhere, but our district/admin/teachers/etc would climb mountains to get our kids educated.  I think maybe there's a slight disconnect here in what we're debating.  I'm not advocating for more power, but rather more money.  In the near term this would be focused on making the classrooms safer (PPEs, plexiglass, smaller classrooms, etc), but in the long term it would be great if CA wasn't in the 40s on a per pupil spending ranking.  That's pretty embarrassing considering we account for 14% of the GDP and are the 5th largest economic power in the world.


wondering, are you public, private, charter?


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 23, 2021)

happy9 said:


> wondering, are you public, private, charter?


Public


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Totally hear you.  The teachers at our schools are eager to get kids back in the classroom.  We're hybrid now.  I don't really know what it's like elsewhere, but our district/admin/teachers/etc would climb mountains to get our kids educated.  I think maybe there's a slight disconnect here in what we're debating.  I'm not advocating for more power, but rather more money.  In the near term this would be focused on making the classrooms safer (PPEs, plexiglass, smaller classrooms, etc), but in the long term it would be great if CA wasn't in the 40s on a per pupil spending ranking.  That's pretty embarrassing considering we account for 14% of the GDP and are the 5th largest economic power in the world.


California is also the 13th from the top in overall tax burden. There’s less than a point that separates 5-13.  Presumably that means you either think California’s taxes are too low or it’s spending priorities are wrong?  (you could I suppose think the federal government should increase the grants to the states but that would still leave California in the 40s)


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 23, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> Totally hear you.  The teachers at our schools are eager to get kids back in the classroom.  We're hybrid now.  I don't really know what it's like elsewhere, but our district/admin/teachers/etc would climb mountains to get our kids educated.  I think maybe there's a slight disconnect here in what we're debating.  I'm not advocating for more power, but rather more money.  In the near term this would be focused on making the classrooms safer (PPEs, plexiglass, smaller classrooms, etc), but in the long term it would be great if CA wasn't in the 40s on a per pupil spending ranking.  That's pretty embarrassing considering we account for 14% of the GDP and are the 5th largest economic power in the world.


Sounds like your school district is one that wants to work with the community. That is ideal. My point is that adding more money and more people to public education automatically adds more power, especially if they are unionized.

I would definitely support plexiglass, etc. to make the classrooms safer and I also wonder how a state like CA can rank so low in spending/pupil given our wealth and the relatively high tax burden. I suppose if I were a better citizen, I'd do a little research and determine where all the tax money goes.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 23, 2021)

Norcal here too. We have been at the very least Hybrid since September. I have one in Charter and one in Public, both are on the same schedule.
I actually like the current class sizes much better, (14,) but I know it's not sustainable long term.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

Becker’s hospital review is keeping track daily of the state vaccination rates. California is currently 48th only in front of Virginia and Alabama and has a backlog of more than 2 million. And it’s not because we are stock piling second doses. My father (an md) has been trying to get an appointment for his second dose and can’t get it.  We’ve only used about 40% of shots on hand. West Virginia up top has used more than 70%


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Becker’s hospital review is keeping track daily of the state vaccination rates. California is currently 48th only in front of Virginia and Alabama and has a backlog of more than 2 million. And it’s not because we are stock piling second doses. My father (an md) has been trying to get an appointment for his second dose and can’t get it.  We’ve only used about 40% of shots on hand. West Virginia up top has used more than 70%


Question- do you know if there is a timeframe between dose 1 and 2 that has to be met? I guess I'm wondering if it's ever "too late" to get dose 2? Because if so, that would be a disaster!


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Question- do you know if there is a timeframe between dose 1 and 2 that has to be met? I guess I'm wondering if it's ever "too late" to get dose 2? Because if so, that would be a disaster!


they don’t know for sure yet if there’s a max time.  It can’t be earlier but they say you can wait some time for the second. It doesn’t have to be exact. However the cdc recommendations say people should not wait more than six weeks after their due date for the second vaccine and my father is concerned that all appointments are currently booked 6 weeks out in vc.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> they don’t know for sure yet if there’s a max time.  It can’t be earlier but they say you can wait some time for the second. It doesn’t have to be exact. However the cdc recommendations say people should not wait more than six weeks after their due date for the second vaccine and my father is concerned that all appointments are currently booked 6 weeks out in vc.


Ps other thing with my dad is he’s a volunteer on roster to help with the vaccinations once they expand to mass vaccination centers. But he can’t do that until 2 weeks after his second shot so that’s once less trained volunteer they have to help out.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ps other thing with my dad is he’s a volunteer on roster to help with the vaccinations once they expand to mass vaccination centers. But he can’t do that until 2 weeks after his second shot so that’s once less trained volunteer they have to help out.


Man what a shit show! And, scary,


----------



## espola (Jan 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nah you just think you’ve found the tunnel but actually have put your cute little car into a barn and have a chicken on your head


Coocoo.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 24, 2021)

espola said:


> Coocoo.


“You’ve done it again Magoo my dear old boy!”


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 24, 2021)

Some European countries are conceding cloth masks are not stopping their outbreaks.  Bavaria even goes so far as to require N95s in certain cases, citing the new variants (despite Germany's curve being passed peak.









						European countries mandate medical-grade masks over cloth face coverings
					

Confronting new, more transmissible variants of the coronavirus and a winter spike in infections, a number of European countries are beginning to make medical-grade face masks mandatory in the hope that they can slow the spread of the disease.




					www.cnn.com
				




Meanwhile, NYT says remote work and partial locikdowns need to continue until July 2020 at least









						Why Vaccines Alone Will Not End the Pandemic
					

New estimates suggest the vaccine rollout is no match for the severity of the U.S. outbreak, and stricter social distancing measures are needed to reduce infections.



					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 24, 2021)

Meanwhile australia is telling its people vaccinated people can still spread the coronavirus and that they need to observe lockdown rules even if vaccinated (australia has been in various states of lockdown since their second outbreak).

get vaccinated: lockdown
Not vaccinated: lockdown
i Don’t think they have a mandate (pesky emergency use authorizations) so unless you are a senior or essential worker not much incentive to get it done


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Some European countries are conceding cloth masks are not stopping their outbreaks.  Bavaria even goes so far as to require N95s in certain cases, citing the new variants (despite Germany's curve being passed peak.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They even have a scenario if they tighten restrictions - I assume because it was so successful in CA. This is all very nice, but based on the past 10 months, I don't see people changing behavior to be more cautious and it will be a struggle to keep the current level of restrictions in many places.

I do worry about Hawaii. They appear to have a low seroprevalence and the vaccine rollout is very slow. As more people become comfortable traveling, they could see a significant spike.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 24, 2021)

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen
					

Firmly linking teen suicides to school closings is difficult, but rising mental health emergencies and suicide rates point to the toll the pandemic lockdown is taking.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen
> 
> 
> Firmly linking teen suicides to school closings is difficult, but rising mental health emergencies and suicide rates point to the toll the pandemic lockdown is taking.
> ...


Guess they didn't get the memo that opening schools is an example of "white supremacy" and concern about suicide is "white privilege".









						Rantz: Union head says opening schools is 'white supremacy,' suicide concern 'white privilege'
					

A teacher's union president claims reopening schools for in-person learning is an example of "white supremacy" and compares it to following rioters into the U.S. Capitol.



					mynorthwest.com


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen
> 
> 
> Firmly linking teen suicides to school closings is difficult, but rising mental health emergencies and suicide rates point to the toll the pandemic lockdown is taking.
> ...


Teachers, unions and the CTA all should be held accountable for what has been done with holding kids out of school. I have given teachers a pass for a long time but now hold them just as responsible for the disaster THEIR unions and associations have created along with our governor.  I will never be able to support another raise or benefits for teachers ever again. During this teachers have taken advantage of the situation. Whether it is working from home, working less hours or poor preparation for online lessons. The teachers have failed along with all the other parts of this corrupt broken education system. They should not get a pass for our kids suffering.


----------



## espola (Jan 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Guess they didn't get the memo that opening schools is an example of "white supremacy" and concern about suicide is "white privilege".
> 
> 
> 
> ...











						KTTH
					





					mynorthwest.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 24, 2021)

espola said:


> KTTH
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Do you like these sources better?



			https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/local/education/article248665440.html
		










						President of teacher's union says cries for in-class learning a product of white privilege
					

PASCO -- The President of the Pasco Association of Educators says the cries for returning to in-person learning are the product of 'white privilege. ' Scott Wilson, President of the PAE, was one of many who spoke at Tuesday night's meeting during the Pasco School District School Board. Wilson...




					keprtv.com


----------



## watfly (Jan 24, 2021)

Costco is serving samples again.  So my hopes of Covid getting rid of samples forever have been dashed.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 24, 2021)

I find the whole N95 issue intriguing- when I went to Kaiser recently for a lab draw, they made me put another mask OVER my N95- as they weren't allowing any vented masks in.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 24, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I find the whole N95 issue intriguing- when I went to Kaiser recently for a lab draw, they made me put another mask OVER my N95- as they weren't allowing any vented masks in.


The vent thing has been an issue for a while but Theres  an entire push going on that the reasons why masks didn’t work is that they need to be double masks. There was something in The NY Times today or yesterday


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 24, 2021)

putting this in the bad news thread because of the 2nd party. Looks like the purple plus lockdown orders will be lifted this week. Announcement apparently being made tomorrow according to an email sent to the California restaurateurs association. La county though is expected to remain on lockdown including outdoor dining.


----------



## crush (Jan 25, 2021)

"Oh Billy, Billy, Blliy"


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> Costco is serving samples again.  So my hopes of Covid getting rid of samples forever have been dashed.


BS, which location?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> And they take a thinly veiled shot at the education level of Californians. You can't make this up.
> 
> CHHS spokeswoman Kate Folmar said projected ICU capacity is based on multiple variables, including available beds and staffing. "These fluid, on-the-ground conditions cannot be boiled down to a single data point — and to do so would mislead and create greater uncertainty for Californians," she said in a statement.
> 
> ...


Ok, and the next day, the story for the link below leads with the following sentence regarding ICU capacity in CA. 
"A stunning turn with regional ICU availability numbers."

This is good news if you ignore the fact that this gives a very strong impression that our leaders in CA appear to be intentionally misleading us.









						'We're on the downslope': Bay Area ICU capacity dramatically improves but exiting stay-at-home order still unclear
					

"This could potentially be the beginning of the end," said UCSF Epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford.




					abc7news.com


----------



## watfly (Jan 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> BS, which location?


La Mesa.  Not anything prepared that I noticed, just stuff out of the package.  Maybe around 8 or so stations.


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ok, and the next day, the story for the link below leads with the following sentence regarding ICU capacity in CA.
> "A stunning turn with regional ICU availability numbers."
> 
> This is good news if you ignore the fact that this gives a very strong impression that our leaders in CA appear to be intentionally misleading us.
> ...


And......









						California Lifts Its Regional Stay-at-Home Order, Returning to County-Based Restrictions
					

Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to announce Monday that the stay at home order will be lifted in all regions of the state, according to a letter from the California Restaurant Association to its members.




					www.nbclosangeles.com
				




I don't know anything about the ICU numbers, but what is crazy is the number of cases and how those numbers have dropped off a cliff.  Sort of crazy.


----------



## watfly (Jan 25, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> And......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I will take this as good news.  Interesting that he is lifting this when SoCal is still seeing crazy numbers.  Curious to know what motivated him to change his mind.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> I will take this as good news.  Interesting that he is lifting this when SoCal is still seeing crazy numbers.  Curious to know what motivated him to change his mind.


“...It's far from clear whether the decision will lead to easing of stay-at-home rules in Los Angeles County” 

Clown show!


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> I will take this as good news.  Interesting that he is lifting this when SoCal is still seeing crazy numbers.  Curious to know what motivated him to change his mind.


What's super crazy to me is SoCal has much higher infection rates than NorCal, at least anecdotally (I'm pretty sure the math backs up that assertion) -- in that more people down there have gotten the virus.  Numbers should be dropping like a rock down there.  I think @dad4 pointed out this possibility a ways back.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> La Mesa.  Not anything prepared that I noticed, just stuff out of the package.  Maybe around 8 or so stations.


Interesting, saw that in Arizona with stuff in zip locks but not at mine.


----------



## watfly (Jan 25, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> What's super crazy to me is SoCal has much higher infection rates than NorCal, at least anecdotally (I'm pretty sure the math backs up that assertion) -- in that more people down there have gotten the virus.  Numbers should be dropping like a rock down there.  I think @dad4 pointed out this possibility a ways back.


Please don't lump SD County in with LA County   .   SD is down a wee bit but nothing material, still at one of its highest points for cases and lowest for ICU capacity.  The good news is that overall SD County has a low death rate per capita for large counties, only 45% of LA's death per capita.  Some of NoCal's large counties are among the lowest overall.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 25, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> “...It's far from clear whether the decision will lead to easing of stay-at-home rules in Los Angeles County”
> 
> Clown show!


Look at LA’s new cases per day.   You’ve got 1/4 of the state population but almost half the daily cases.  As long as this is true, LA will have stricter rules than other places.

They aren’t doing what you want, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are wrong.


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> Please don't lump SD County in with LA County   .   SD is down a wee bit but nothing material, still at one of its highest points for cases and lowest for ICU capacity.  The good news is that overall SD County has a low death rate per capita for large counties, only 45% of LA's death per capita.  Some of NoCal's large counties are among the lowest overall.


SD County is really strange. You guys didn't have much of a surge in July. Your case numbers appear to be dropping -- albeit not as fast.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look at LA’s new cases per day.   You’ve got 1/4 of the state population but almost half the daily cases.  As long as this is true, LA will have stricter rules than other places.
> 
> They aren’t doing what you want, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are wrong.


But as you had predicted earlier, LA has gone down pretty rapidly.  From a height of CPD of 20K+ it's now about 11+.   From a high of positive rate of 24% on New Years Day, it's now about 11%.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look at LA’s new cases per day.   You’ve got 1/4 of the state population but almost half the daily cases.  As long as this is true, LA will have stricter rules than other places.
> 
> They aren’t doing what you want, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are wrong.


LA County has NEVER been out of the strictest tier, what does that tell you?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 25, 2021)

Well, that was quick....not even a transition period...immediate subject to county o.k.









						Newsom cancels California’s COVID-19 stay-at-home orders
					

The action by state officials means restaurants and gyms could soon reopen outdoor services. Counties will make the final call, however.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 25, 2021)

I can attest this is true at least in the Latino community, with multigenerational households sometimes crammed together in small apartments.









						Why COVID-19 Has Run Amok in Los Angeles
					

The jam-packed living arrangements of frontline workers in an unaffordable housing market are partly to blame.




					prospect.org


----------



## dad4 (Jan 25, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> LA County has NEVER been out of the strictest tier, what does that tell you?


That you have high population density, a lot of low income families with too little space, and a wicked new variant.

I would like to believe that cities will realize that the lack of housing stock helped cause the crisis.   But that’s just me dreaming.  More likely the rich places will make it illegal for a large family to live in a small apartment.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That you have high population density, a lot of low income families with too little space, and a wicked new variant.
> 
> I would like to believe that cities will realize that the lack of housing stock helped cause the crisis.   But that’s just me dreaming.  More likely the rich places will make it illegal for a large family to live in a small apartment.


Where else are you gonna build in LA County?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 25, 2021)

As predicted, we're officially on people should wear 2 masks now.  He's gone from none to 1 to 2


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1353789925989167104


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As predicted, we're officially on people should wear 2 masks now.  He's gone from none to 1 to 2
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1353789925989167104


This guy is a complete phony. For those who listen to him just add a third mask to your face and wait for him to appear on a MSM Sunday show. I do not trust anything this guy says.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 25, 2021)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> This guy is a complete phony. For those who listen to him just add a third mask to your face and wait for him to appear on a MSM Sunday show. I do not trust anything this guy says.


Well, it also came out today he's the highest paid employee in the federal government, even more than the President.









						Report: Fauci is the highest-paid employee in the U.S. federal government
					

According to a new report by Forbes, infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci is the highest paid employee in the U.S. federal government. In 2019, his salary was $417,608, the highest salary out of all four million federal government employees. In comparison, Speaker Nancy Pelosi will earn...




					saraacarter.com


----------



## NorCalDad (Jan 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As predicted, we're officially on people should wear 2 masks now.  He's gone from none to 1 to 2
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1353789925989167104


I really wish Fauci would stay away from reporters and just focus on the science stuff. Dude just talks too much. 

One day I did wear two masks because early on there was this dumb, unscientific, report that that said neck gators were worse than wearing no mask.  The optics were so bad, the doctor office I went to said I needed to wear a "over the ear" mask.  I just about laid into them how stupid that was given how dumb the report was.  Next time I went in I wore both a neck gator and an over the ear mask to make a point.  Admittedly I felt pretty invincible...and maybe slightly light headed.


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> I will take this as good news.  Interesting that he is lifting this when SoCal is still seeing crazy numbers.  Curious to know what motivated him to change his mind.


Unfortunately this is not great news. Lifting the stay at home order following the Newsom science and getting the counties placed into the Newsom non-scientific colored tier system with little to no opportunity to leave purple anytime soon is not much progress. This is just another let them eat cake moment from our elitist governor. No one should accept the garbage that comes out of this governors mouth.


----------



## espola (Jan 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well, it also came out today he's the highest paid employee in the federal government, even more than the President.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"About seven in ten also trust national messengers like the U.S. CDC (73%), FDA (70%), and Dr. Anthony Fauci (68%), as well as their local public health department (70%). Somewhat fewer, but still a majority, put at least a fair amount of trust in their state government officials (58%), president-elect Joe Biden (57%), and pharmaceutical companies (53%), while just 34% say they trust President Trump."









						KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020
					

This initial survey for the KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor tracks the public’s attitudes and experiences with COVID-19 vaccinations, with a focus on sub-groups of Americans. It explores confidence in…




					www.kff.org


----------



## espola (Jan 25, 2021)

574,000 More U.S. Deaths Than Normal Since Covid-19 Struck (Published 2021)
					

Since the coronavirus pandemic began sweeping across the country last year, deaths have been 21 percent above normal. See the breakdown by state.



					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 26, 2021)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> Unfortunately this is not great news. Lifting the stay at home order following the Newsom science and getting the counties placed into the Newsom non-scientific colored tier system with little to no opportunity to leave purple anytime soon is not much progress. This is just another let them eat cake moment from our elitist governor. No one should accept the garbage that comes out of this governors mouth.


----------



## watfly (Jan 26, 2021)

Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen
					

Firmly linking teen suicides to school closings is difficult, but rising mental health emergencies and suicide rates point to the toll the pandemic lockdown is taking.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 26, 2021)

Spain is in the middle of a third wave which began after New Year. Spain has been a leading indicator of the 1st and 2nd waves.  If it's an indicator of a 3rd it means we are in a rush whether the vaccine can suppress things (given the talk of all these new variants).  The 3rd wave is larger than the second and accelerated quickly, perhaps larger than even the first.









						Spain COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Spain Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 26, 2021)

watfly said:


> Surge of Student Suicides Pushes Las Vegas Schools to Reopen
> 
> 
> Firmly linking teen suicides to school closings is difficult, but rising mental health emergencies and suicide rates point to the toll the pandemic lockdown is taking.
> ...


How about linking teenage suicides to weak parenting.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 26, 2021)

So many screen names. So little time.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How about linking teenage suicides to weak parenting.


That's awful.  The kid who is best surviving this that I know is a former friend of my kid, who is a really high introvert and hasn't left his house since last May.  His parents don't let him have a phone, or communicate via zoom with friends, or play on the xbox.  His only communication outside of class is with his Kumon tutors and his piano instructor.  From what I hear he's really happy not having to leave the house or interact with others, who scare and confuse him.

My niece and younger son, by contrast, suffer through this greatly because they are very high es and human interaction to them is as essential as air and water.  It's not the parenting...it's how they are wired.  And it's not like you are asking them to behave that way for just 6 weeks....it's been almost a year!

Part of the problem is that I suspect our health care experts are high introvert, low risk people and they assume because it's workable for them, it will be workable for everyone.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 26, 2021)

How much the teacher's unions love our kids.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1353012995807457287


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> How much the teacher's unions love our kids.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1353012995807457287


Teachers seem to have developed a god complex that has them believing they are above other essential workers. Our liberal politicians have allowed them this belief through campaign contributions giving them a sense they run education in this country. That is the problem with the public education system, it is run by those with inferior intellects. The better educators don’t work in public schools with some exceptions of course. They have proven their lack of value to our country and my child by what they have done by not going back to work.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How about linking teenage suicides to weak parenting.


If they could they would....but they can’t so they don’t.  I know the truth is often hard to swallow but the reality (supported by data) is that the pandemic has left scars on our youth. Like it or not.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 26, 2021)

Biden CofS saying schools should reopen unless they get more money.  This is notwithstanding of course whether teachers get vaccinated or not. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1354234528332656642


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How about linking teenage suicides to weak parenting.


Something tells me you wouldnt say this in front of a dad whose kid committed suicide,  no matter how big you talk on here.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 26, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> If they could they would....but they can’t so they don’t.  I know the truth is often hard to swallow but the reality (supported by data) is that the pandemic has left scars on our youth. Like it or not.


Strength comes from within. Blaming outside entities is a cop out.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Strength comes from within. Blaming outside entities is a cop out.


They're children you are talking about, who haven't learned how to cope with things and as well who's usual support mechanisms (school counselors, private psychologists, ministers, coaches, big sibling programs) was torn away from them.  And some of them are just genetically predisposed to cope better with the stress or if they are high is to not consider the situation stressful (or maybe even pleasant)


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 26, 2021)

Chelsea dad g09 said:


> Something tells me you wouldnt say this in front of a dad whose kid committed suicide,  no matter how big you talk on here.


Who would be that unfeeling? Oh yeah the infowars/false flag crowd. You know the type that threaten the lives of, and scream at, mass murder survivors and their relatives. And those people are strong trump supporters. Nice crowd that trump coalition.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They're children you are talking about, who haven't learned how to cope with things and as well who's usual support mechanisms (school counselors, private psychologists, ministers, coaches, big sibling programs) was torn away from them.  And some of them are just genetically predisposed to cope better with the stress or if they are high is to not consider the situation stressful (or maybe even pleasant)


Don’t be an idiot. Read what you just posted and then ask yourself where a parent/caretakers responsibilities lie. Children are our greatest resource and need all the support we can give. You just want to argue.


----------



## crush (Jan 26, 2021)

Chelsea dad g09 said:


> Something tells me you wouldnt say this in front of a dad whose kid committed suicide,  no matter how big you talk on here.


----------



## watfly (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How about linking teenage suicides to weak parenting.


Light shines on another cockroach...nevermind same cockroach again.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 26, 2021)

watfly said:


> Light shines on another cockroach...nevermind same cockroach again.


What’s your answer?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Don’t be an idiot. Read what you just posted and then ask yourself where a parent/caretakers responsibilities lie. Children are our greatest resource and need all the support we can give. You just want to argue.


Nah, it's personal for me.  My niece attempted suicide thanks to the stupid anti-child lockdown policies.  They couldn't even get her the help she needed because of all the remote stuff.  And rather be an idiot than an insensitive bastard.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Don’t be an idiot. Read what you just posted and then ask yourself where a parent/caretakers responsibilities lie. Children are our greatest resource and need all the support we can give. You just want to argue.


Because there is so much empirical data on how lockdowns and social isolation affect children.  I must have also missed the chapter on how to handle those affects in the parenting manual.

I do agree that our children are our most precious resource, but unfortunately even the best parents can’t always protect their children from anxiety, depression and stress.   Especially if they are also under severe stress.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 26, 2021)

watfly said:


> Costco is serving samples again.  So my hopes of Covid getting rid of samples forever have been dashed.


Just take out their hamstring with the cart.  That’s what I do.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How about linking teenage suicides to weak parenting.


How about linking low income, lack of education and high crime rates to weak parenting?


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Strength comes from within. Blaming outside entities is a cop out.


 You mean white cop out?


----------



## N00B (Jan 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Strength comes from within. Blaming outside entities is a cop out.


Most conservatives would agree with the statement, just not the context it was used in.



Scott m Shurson said:


> You mean white cop out?


Don’t think Husker intended the ‘cop out’ to be racial.  

That said, I do think the unintended irony of  ‘blaming outside entities’ and ‘cop out’ in the same sentence is ripe following the defund the police movement


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 26, 2021)

I really wish someone could explain rationally to me why they'd want to defund the police. I'm an open minded person, and think that's the dumbest idea ever, and would solve absolutely nothing.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 27, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Because there is so much empirical data on how lockdowns and social isolation affect children.  I must have also missed the chapter on how to handle those affects in the parenting manual.
> 
> I do agree that our children are our most precious resource, but unfortunately even the best parents can’t always protect their children from anxiety, depression and stress.   Especially if they are also under severe stress.


Strength, inner strength, to be your own person. Adaptability, to be able to adapt to change. If you are offended blame your parents for raising a pussy.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 27, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I really wish someone could explain rationally to me why they'd want to defund the police. I'm an open minded person, and think that's the dumbest idea ever, and would solve absolutely nothing.


Biden wants them to have more money and resources. If one takes all their clues from the worst ideas no wonder you feel like you have all the answers. I guess the opposite would be why does the right want racial purification? Some have suggested it.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 27, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> You mean white cop out?


Never heard of it, something your sources have pushed on you?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 27, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> How about linking low income, lack of education and high crime rates to weak parenting?


Yes, but that all started 400 years ago when certain parents taught their kids they were superior.


----------



## crush (Jan 27, 2021)

For the record, I was adopted and have no relations to Mitch.  This is not a true sea turtle.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Strength, inner strength, to be your own person. Adaptability, to be able to adapt to change. If you are offended blame your parents for raising a pussy.


Noted....what grade are your kids in again?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Strength, inner strength, to be your own person. Adaptability, to be able to adapt to change. If you are offended blame your parents for raising a pussy.


OK so you can take your argument up with the CDC as well…Guess you’re just smarter than your experts.

“ Meanwhile, evidence mounts of the social, emotional and academic toll remote learning has taken on children, especially in already vulnerable, low-income communities.”









						CDC Makes The Case For Schools Reopening
					

Federal researchers say, with proper safety precautions, schools don't seem to fuel outbreaks, with some exceptions such as indoor sports practices.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 27, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I really wish someone could explain rationally to me why they'd want to defund the police. I'm an open minded person, and think that's the dumbest idea ever, and would solve absolutely nothing.


They can’t.  The clowns will tell you police aren’t trained to deal with someone having a breakdown or running down the street swinging a knife.  So they think we need social workers on standby.  In other words, one more person to get stabbed to death before that person runs into a building and takes out 10 more.  Even firefighters have to wait on those calls until police arrive.  I guess they think superhuman PCP strength and weapons aren’t an issue if you have a masters degree.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Never heard of it, something your sources have pushed on you?


Really?  Is that why cities write checks to the families of violent criminals that resist arrest?  Accountability?


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yes, but that all started 400 years ago when certain parents taught their kids they were superior.


Or it could have been the last 50 when they figured it paid better to just be a perpetual victim and ignore the rules of the game.  

Pretty sure none of us were here 4 centuries ago.


----------



## whatithink (Jan 27, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I really wish someone could explain rationally to me why they'd want to defund the police. I'm an open minded person, and think that's the dumbest idea ever, and would solve absolutely nothing.


Its a very conservative premise with an unfortunate name. Basically, assuming budgets are fixed, money should be rechanneled to deal with the root cause of issues, i.e. be proactive, versus the result of issues, i.e. be reactive. If the root cause remedies have positive results, then, over time, government spending and therefore taxes can be reduced. What could be more conservative than that! Society also benefits in every way.

Keep in mind that the US spends more than $100B annually on policing, and close to the same on incarceration.


----------



## watfly (Jan 27, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I really wish someone could explain rationally to me why they'd want to defund the police. I'm an open minded person, and think that's the dumbest idea ever, and would solve absolutely nothing.


Its part of the woke narrative to make criminals out to be victims.  Its not intended to solve anything, its just a political statement.

Many politicians either can't, or don't care, about cause and effect from their policies.  They just want to make a statement.  Its the biggest problem with subjective governance vs objective governance.  You see it with Biden's Keystone pipeline reversal, the pipeline is actually much safer than having the oil come by truck and rail car (part of that is being woke and part is just anti-Trump).  You see it with Newsom's prohibition on youth sports as families travel out of state to play which is much riskier.  Your seeing it with the decision to keep schools closed.  You see it with anti-abortion laws taht make abortion potentially more dangerous. We saw it a century ago with prohibition.

It's going to be very prominent the next 4 years as we see policies based on identity politics, or as it is euphemistically being called "racial equity". (Notice equality, or opportunity, has been replaced with equity, or outcome).  Biden and his staff have made it clear that they will be making policy based upon "racial equity".


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Jan 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Strength, inner strength, to be your own person. Adaptability, to be able to adapt to change. If you are offended blame your parents for raising a pussy.


Like a pussy who trolls a youth soccer message board and insults parents about the effects of a mental disorder which is obvious you know nothing about about. That kind of pussy?


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 27, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Its a very conservative premise with an unfortunate name. Basically, assuming budgets are fixed, money should be rechanneled to deal with the root cause of issues, i.e. be proactive, versus the result of issues, i.e. be reactive. If the root cause remedies have positive results, then, over time, government spending and therefore taxes can be reduced. What could be more conservative than that! Society also benefits in every way.
> 
> Keep in mind that the US spends more than $100B annually on policing, and close to the same on incarceration.


What do you spend money on to stop a naked man running through the streets and waiving a knife because he’s on PCP?  How about a man that keeps a knife on his floorboard, and likes to punch cops doing their job, after sexually assaulting a woman?  

Who do we “rechannel” funds to?  You know, conservatively?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

Will the Truth on COVID Restrictions Really Prevail? | RealClearPolitics
					

The consequences of the SARS2 coronavirus pandemic and its management have been enormous. Over 400,000 American deaths have been attributed to the virus; more...




					www.realclearpolitics.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

Netherlands and Denmark Leaders Warn Of 'Civil War'
					

POLICE in the Netherlands have warned the country could face weeks of rioting after a coronavirus curfew ended in the worst riots for 40 years as delays to vaccinations raised tensions across the whole of Europe.




					www.euroweeklynews.com
				




Recall I said something similar would happen here if they tried a national lockdown.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

Disgrace: Teachers' Union Cuts Vaccine Line, Then Refuses to Return to Classrooms Anyway
					

Abuse.




					townhall.com


----------



## whatithink (Jan 27, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> What do you spend money on to stop a naked man running through the streets and waiving a knife because he’s on PCP?  How about a man that keeps a knife on his floorboard, and likes to punch cops doing their job, after sexually assaulting a woman?
> 
> Who do we “rechannel” funds to?  You know, conservatively?


You're being purposely facetious or just obtuse.


----------



## espola (Jan 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Netherlands and Denmark Leaders Warn Of 'Civil War'
> 
> 
> POLICE in the Netherlands have warned the country could face weeks of rioting after a coronavirus curfew ended in the worst riots for 40 years as delays to vaccinations raised tensions across the whole of Europe.
> ...


Would it be legal?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Would it be legal?


"You've done it again, Magoo, you old chap!"


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 27, 2021)

whatithink said:


> You're being purposely facetious or just obtuse.


I’m being honest, Mr Dufresne if you please.  How do you stop someone from choosing PCP over their meds? How do you force someone to get psychiatric help if they don’t want it?  How do you stop a confrontation with police when that individual, long ago, decided violent crime was the path to take?

Seriously.  And please don’t give me the typical, bullshit answer of throwing more money at the situation like most liberals do.  That never works.  All it does is raise taxes.  What are your practical ideas for solutions that protect and save lives?


----------



## espola (Jan 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "You've done it again, Magoo, you old chap!"


You didn't answer the question.


----------



## whatithink (Jan 27, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> I’m being honest, Mr Dufresne if you please.  How do you stop someone from choosing PCP over their meds? How do you force someone to get psychiatric help if they don’t want it?  How do you stop a confrontation with police when that individual, long ago, decided violent crime was the path to take?
> 
> Seriously.  And please don’t give me the typical, bullshit answer of throwing more money at the situation like most liberals do.  That never works.  All it does is raise taxes.  What are your practical ideas for solutions that protect and save lives?


We are already throwing more money at the problem. It isn't solving anything. It is raising taxes and/or consuming a larger portion of the taxes raised every year. It isn't working and never will.

I have no issue with my tax dollars being spent on keeping the peace, solving crimes, prosecuting criminals and incarcerating them. 

So seriously, do you think the long term solution is to continue to throw more and more money into policing and incarceration?

I don't have a panacea nor is there one. There is a lot of work to be done, in a lot of communities, with their own issues, that could move the needle from more crime to less crime; from having to spend more money on police and prisons, to spending money on education and child care to after school care etc. It will also take a long time.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

espola said:


> You didn't answer the question.


Legal how?  The question doesn't even make sense.  Magoo, you've gone into the roller coaster and wrecked your cute little yellow car this time


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

Now, randomly given the amount of people injected by now, it is very well possible that after receiving the vaccine shot someone might randomly keel over. Still....roh roh.









						Coronavirus vaccine: OC health care worker dies days after receiving 2nd shot, report says
					

Tim Zook, a 60-year-old X-ray technician at South Coast Global Medical Center in Santa Ana, suffered an adverse reaction within hours after the second shot was administered.




					abc7.com


----------



## espola (Jan 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Legal how?  The question doesn't even make sense.  Magoo, you've gone into the roller coaster and wrecked your cute little yellow car this time


Would the supposed civil war be legal?


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 27, 2021)

whatithink said:


> We are already throwing more money at the problem. It isn't solving anything. It is raising taxes and/or consuming a larger portion of the taxes raised every year. It isn't working and never will.
> 
> I have no issue with my tax dollars being spent on keeping the peace, solving crimes, prosecuting criminals and incarcerating them.
> 
> ...


Yes, I do believe in more money on incarceration, but cemeteries and not prisons.  Why?  Because I’m tired of people, doing it the right way, being forced to suffer, compromise and otherwise deal with crime.  And blaming police, or making excuses that XYZ criminal is a victim because his father wasn’t around, or his 3rd grade teacher didn’t inspire him, is bullshit.  We all had choices to make.

So we agree on your 1st two paragraphs but I still don’t see any tangible solutions from you.  Or is that just me being obtuse?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Would the supposed civil war be legal?


Again it doesn't make sense.  A civil war assumes the breakdown of law.   In the US Civil War, for example, had the south won they would have said their rebellion was legal (same, BTW, as the American Revolution...was that legal?).  The North won, so the South's actions were treason.  There is no "legal" in a civil war situation because legality assumes the monopoly of force that the state has.  The state has the sole right to exercise violence to punish right and wrong.  In a civil war or revolution that monopoly has broken down and been replaced by factional violence.

That's separate and apart from the question of whether something is moral, since morality and legality are separate question.

Wow you are in a Rashomon situation again and you don't even know it.


----------



## watfly (Jan 27, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Its a very conservative premise with an unfortunate name. Basically, assuming budgets are fixed, money should be rechanneled to deal with the root cause of issues, i.e. be proactive, versus the result of issues, i.e. be reactive. If the root cause remedies have positive results, then, over time, government spending and therefore taxes can be reduced. What could be more conservative than that! Society also benefits in every way.
> 
> Keep in mind that the US spends more than $100B annually on policing, and close to the same on incarceration.


With all due respect you're putting a very generous spin on "defund the police".  To quote AOC:

_“Defunding police means defunding police,” Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said. “It does not mean budget tricks or funny math.” _

Now I'm pretty sure you don't want to be defined by AOC, but there are many liberals with significant influence who mean "defund" when they say "defund".  I agree with you that throwing money at police doesn't solve the problem, its like throwing money at schools without accountability.  But taking money away from the police certainly is counter productive.  Some good faith reforms and better accountability and transparency is where we need to start.  Bad cops need to be off the street for the benefit of all Americans regardless of race.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 27, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> OK so you can take your argument up with the CDC as well…Guess you’re just smarter than your experts.
> 
> “ Meanwhile, evidence mounts of the social, emotional and academic toll remote learning has taken on children, especially in already vulnerable, low-income communities.”
> 
> ...


Did we blame the crack problem on social economic pressures? Can we blame opioid addiction on social, economic and academic issues? Adding complications always makes things tougher, this is life.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 27, 2021)

Chelsea dad g09 said:


> Like a pussy who trolls a youth soccer message board and insults parents about the effects of a mental disorder which is obvious you know nothing about about. That kind of pussy?


Are you crying? Wipe your face off and be a man.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jan 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Did we blame the crack problem on social economic pressures? Can we blame opioid addiction on social, economic and academic issues? Adding complications always makes things tougher, this is life.


Thanks for further proving for us that you truly don’t know what you don’t know and try to shame everyone into your narrative.  What grade are your kids in again?  Cause I know you from the old forum too and back then you had olders.  So you likely don’t have kids in K-12 so have NO IDEA how this has impacted them.


----------



## espola (Jan 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again it doesn't make sense.  A civil war assumes the breakdown of law.   In the US Civil War, for example, had the south won they would have said their rebellion was legal (same, BTW, as the American Revolution...was that legal?).  The North won, so the South's actions were treason.  There is no "legal" in a civil war situation because legality assumes the monopoly of force that the state has.  The state has the sole right to exercise violence to punish right and wrong.  In a civil war or revolution that monopoly has broken down and been replaced by factional violence.
> 
> That's separate and apart from the question of whether something is moral, since morality and legality are separate question.
> 
> Wow you are in a Rashomon situation again and you don't even know it.


What would be moral about your supposed civil war?

BTW, the patriots of the Revolutionary War knew that what they were doing was illegal, and that what they were doing risked all.

"we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor."  Would you like me to look up the source of that for you?

"We must all hang together or surely we will all hang separately" -- attributed to Benjamin Franklin.

No whining there about how their rights had been trampled by efforts to control a pandemic.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

espola said:


> What would be moral about your supposed civil war?
> 
> BTW, the patriots of the Revolutionary War knew that what they were doing was illegal, and that what they were doing risked all.
> 
> ...


I'm not seeing much disagreement here between us.  The only real difference is that I regard the lockdowns as immoral, while you don't, which I don't think is exactly a "classical conservative" thing unless you mean the classical conservatism of the English monarchical system pre-Glorious Revolution (again, your definition may vary because so far I'm only seeing a crazy pen guy as an attempt to define it, and Nixon which you trotted out before).


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

espola said:


> What would be moral about your supposed civil war?
> 
> BTW, the patriots of the Revolutionary War knew that what they were doing was illegal, and that what they were doing risked all.
> 
> ...


"we must meet the threat with our blood, our valor, indeed with our very lives, to ensure that human civilization, not insect, dominates this galaxy now and always"


----------



## whatithink (Jan 27, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> Yes, I do believe in more money on incarceration, but cemeteries and not prisons.  Why?  Because I’m tired of people, doing it the right way, being forced to suffer, compromise and otherwise deal with crime.  And blaming police, or making excuses that XYZ criminal is a victim because his father wasn’t around, or his 3rd grade teacher didn’t inspire him, is bullshit.  We all had choices to make.
> 
> So we agree on your 1st two paragraphs but I still don’t see any tangible solutions from you.  Or is that just me being obtuse?


Not obtuse, just purposely provocative now with the "cemeteries and not prisons" trope. We certainly do all have choices, for some those are easy to make and few in number, for others, not so much so.


----------



## espola (Jan 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "we must meet the threat with our blood, our valor, indeed with our very lives, to ensure that human civilization, not insect, dominates this galaxy now and always"


That's fiction.  The American Revolution was not.


----------



## whatithink (Jan 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> With all due respect you're putting a very generous spin on "defund the police".  To quote AOC:
> 
> _“Defunding police means defunding police,” Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said. “It does not mean budget tricks or funny math.” _
> 
> Now I'm pretty sure you don't want to be defined by AOC, but there are many liberals with significant influence who mean "defund" when they say "defund".  I agree with you that throwing money at police doesn't solve the problem, its like throwing money at schools without accountability.  But taking money away from the police certainly is counter productive.  Some good faith reforms and better accountability and transparency is where we need to start.  Bad cops need to be off the street for the benefit of all Americans regardless of race.


I don't pay any attention to AOC.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

espola said:


> That's fiction.  The American Revolution was not.


Poor Magoo.  Can't even tell when he's being mocked.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 27, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Not obtuse, just purposely provocative now with the "cemeteries and not prisons" trope. We certainly do all have choices, for some those are easy to make and few in number, for others, not so much so.


Thats not provocative.  Why should taxpayers fund convicts?  Who pays your rent? Who buys your food?  Who keeps your lights on?  Who guarantees you medical care within 24 hours?  Who paid for your college degree?

Maybe if these animals had to earn their keep like the rest of us, they’d be incentivized to find another career path.  If not, there’s a ton of open land available and all you need is a shovel.  Problem solved.  Society is better off and you get to keep more of your money.


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Jan 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Are you crying? Wipe your face off and be a man.


Like I said, its easy to say shit on the internet. Not so much in person.


----------



## espola (Jan 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Poor Magoo.  Can't even tell when he's being mocked.


I can tell when you are trying to run away from your previous statements.

And that was Thomas Jefferson you were  mocking.


----------



## whatithink (Jan 27, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> Thats not provocative.  Why should taxpayers fund convicts?  Who pays your rent? Who buys your food?  Who keeps your lights on?  Who guarantees you medical care within 24 hours?  Who paid for your college degree?
> 
> Maybe if these animals had to earn their keep like the rest of us, they’d be incentivized to find another career path.  If not, there’s a ton of open land available and all you need is a shovel.  Problem solved.  Society is better off and you get to keep more of your money.


Funny man, so you are going for a zero tolerance regime. So what's the rule again, if the sentence involves prison, then we just take them out back and off them? Is that any crime that involves prison, or just for some crimes (or some people)?


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I can tell when you are trying to run away from your previous statements.
> 
> And that was Thomas Jefferson you were  mocking.


Nah it was you because of your earlier fascist remark.  Still can't tell up or down, can you?  The glasses would come in handy.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 27, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Funny man, so you are going for a zero tolerance regime. So what's the rule again, if the sentence involves prison, then we just take them out back and off them? Is that any crime that involves prison, or just for some crimes (or some people)?


No, I’m going for the “15th time in jail?” Regime.  You’ve shown your character.  Good luck in the next life.  

I know that will frustrate all the dummies that still believe there are people in prison for smoking weed, but the world is full of idiots.


----------



## whatithink (Jan 27, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> No, I’m going for the “15th time in jail?” Regime.  You’ve shown your character.  Good luck in the next life.
> 
> I know that will frustrate all the dummies that still believe there are people in prison for smoking weed, but the world is full of idiots.


Wow, 15 times. You are a patient and tolerant individual.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "You've done it again, Magoo, you old chap!"


I am so tired that I thought this said "You old CRAP"


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 27, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I am so tired that I thought this said "You old CRAP"


I'd never call espola that.  I love him too much for that....the same way one would love a crazy old uncle one only sees at Thanksgiving who goes off on alien conspiracies and how the young generation is all lost.


----------



## whatithink (Jan 27, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> No, I’m going for the “15th time in jail?” Regime.  You’ve shown your character.  Good luck in the next life.
> 
> I know that will frustrate all the dummies that still believe there are people in prison for smoking weed, but the world is full of idiots.


LMAO, I just realized that you've taken exception to me characterizing your position as a "regime" ... in reply to you, where you actually say 



Scott m Shurson said:


> If not, there’s a ton of open land available and all you need is a shovel.  Problem solved.


Thanks - I needed a good laugh.


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Jan 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Disgrace: Teachers' Union Cuts Vaccine Line, Then Refuses to Return to Classrooms Anyway
> 
> 
> Abuse.
> ...


Not surprising.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 28, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Wow, 15 times. You are a patient and tolerant individual.


I’m a 3rd Strike fan, truth be told.  2 shots at rehab and then we take a shot at you.

Now stop stalling, I’m waiting for your solutions.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Jan 28, 2021)

whatithink said:


> LMAO, I just realized that you've taken exception to me characterizing your position as a "regime" ... in reply to you, where you actually say
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks - I needed a good laugh.


I just realized you dance around the ring for than Floyd Mayweather.  

You have solutions or just criticisms?


----------



## crush (Jan 28, 2021)




----------



## watfly (Jan 28, 2021)

More evidence that Coumo is a POS and complete con man.  The coverup is as bad as the crime.









						N.Y. Severely Undercounted Virus Deaths in Nursing Homes, Report Says (Published 2021)
					

The state attorney general, Letitia James, said it’s likely that the Cuomo administration failed to report thousands of Covid-19 deaths of nursing home residents.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 28, 2021)

WHO Recommends Against Moderna, Pfizer Vaccines for Most Pregnant Women
					

The World Health Organization gave new guidance about Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine this week, recommending generally against its use for most pregnant people, echoing similar guidance for the Pfizer and BioNTech shot.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> WHO Recommends Against Moderna, Pfizer Vaccines for Most Pregnant Women
> 
> 
> The World Health Organization gave new guidance about Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine this week, recommending generally against its use for most pregnant people, echoing similar guidance for the Pfizer and BioNTech shot.
> ...


Also, I'm beginning to see a trickle of statements from a handful of large companies to their office worker employees about the vaccine.  Most are saying they won't mandate it (no doubt because of the EU authorization) but even when vaccines are available and return to the office don't expect a return to normal (e.g., masks, travel/convention limits, restrictions on meetings and gatherings, illness screenings).  I think this complicates things too because obviously now pregnant women may not be able to get vaccinated.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 28, 2021)

Good thread on why we are f'ed (including schools and sports) as long as substantial portions of the population (whether by refusal, ineligibility, or condition) remain unvaccinated.  For all practical purposes, the emergency will be over by March due to vaccination of at risk population and declining numbers due to seasonality (though based on how Spain has acted, I think we might still get a 3rd wave sometime in March if we are unlucky).  But as long as Newsom continues his current course, we are looking at issues in California into 2020 (unless the population finally says "enough")


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1354975720380850176


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Good thread on why we are f'ed (including schools and sports) as long as substantial portions of the population (whether by refusal, ineligibility, or condition) remain unvaccinated.  For all practical purposes, the emergency will be over by March due to vaccination of at risk population and declining numbers due to seasonality (though based on how Spain has acted, I think we might still get a 3rd wave sometime in March if we are unlucky).  But as long as Newsom continues his current course, we are looking at issues in California into 2020 (unless the population finally says "enough")
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1354975720380850176


Wow. On a related note, it looks like COVID not only took down Trump, it may take down Cuomo and Newsome. I guess the Rona doesn't really care about political affiliation. I am at least hoping the next group of elected leaders doesn't pander to the extremes and/or let the power go to their heads like these guys.

Hey Grace, please get the mess cleaned up in CA by late summer. Like Brumby, I would prefer to return.

On the bright side, these restrictions will be picked apart as things improve and our fearless leaders will spend countless cycles coming up with yet another new model that even they don't understand. If we don't get that 3rd wave in March, I give this model until April until it is "revised" or enforced with the same enthusiasm as our immigration rules. So much virtue signaling, so little leadership.

My one concern is that we may have missed the best vaccine strategy for bringing cases and deaths down. In SC county, it appears there are a few zip codes where R >> 1 and many where it is less than 1. If that is actually the case, we should have been focusing on getting people in those zip codes vaccinated first - or at least on a Level 1 tier and get the vaccines going in those areas. It will also likely address the inequity we are seeing in terms of who is getting the vaccine. To me, that's important but secondary to doing what is optimal to stop the virus.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 30, 2021)

Biden admin is vaccinating prisoners at Gitmo while at the same time seniors (including vets), teachers and police struggling to get vaccinated especially in places like California. Now I get it’s probably some boneheaded govt decision where they allocated a portion to the military and the military made a decision to vaccinate high risk places like prisons and no one thought hey maybe it looks bad if we vaccinated the 9/11 masterminds first. I don’t hold Biden anymore to account for this than I do trump and the masks debacle. But still the optics are terrible

whats worse is the uk is vaccinating the equivalent of 2.5 m per day if you compare population while we’ve inched up the target to 1.5m after the public and even partisan press loudly complained.   I blame trump for not being more serious about the initial problem and not taking all hands on deck back last January. Similarly Biden’s had months now on the vaccine rollout and his strategy seems to be lets do trumps but better.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 30, 2021)

Another reason why things might not improve....

a. the egg heads are thinking the new variants are more contagious for children.  Children won't be fully vaccinated til 2022 at the earliest and it will be hard to mandate it before then.  If true (a huge if since it's unclear how much of this is fear mongering and how much of it is a real concern), California and other blue state schools will (barring a major political upheavel) not return to normal until late 2022-early 2023 at the earliest.
b.  more fear mongering re youth sports but it seems that's where some of them are headed so (barring a major political upheavel) possibly those are disrupted until summer 2022.
c. interestingly he disagrees with Fauci and the double masks.



			https://www.radio.com/wccoradio/news/local/osterholm-raises-concerns-over-double-masking-recommendation


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Another reason why things might not improve....
> 
> a. the egg heads are thinking the new variants are more contagious for children.  Children won't be fully vaccinated til 2022 at the earliest and it will be hard to mandate it before then.  If true (a huge if since it's unclear how much of this is fear mongering and how much of it is a real concern), California and other blue state schools will (barring a major political upheavel) not return to normal until late 2022-early 2023 at the earliest.
> b.  more fear mongering re youth sports but it seems that's where some of them are headed so (barring a major political upheavel) possibly those are disrupted until summer 2022.
> ...


Colorado is blue and it's nothing like CA right now in terms of restrictions - some indoor dining, never stopped outdoor dining, no significant restrictions on organized outdoor sporting activities (not that they really enforce it other than administratively in CA). And yet, CO is outperforming CA by a long shot. As dad4 says, it may well be due to population density differences, but if that's true, it implies the outdoor restrictions are useless. Let's face it. CA is "special".

Every time I hear the double mask thing I am reminded how the elites are out of touch with the masses. Sure, they'll get some support from the media, but it's just not going to fly unless things take an unexpected turn for the worse. If things keep improving, it's going to get harder to enforce the existing requirements.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 30, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Colorado is blue and it's nothing like CA right now in terms of restrictions - some indoor dining, never stopped outdoor dining, no significant restrictions on organized outdoor sporting activities (not that they really enforce it other than administratively in CA). And yet, CO is outperforming CA by a long shot. As dad4 says, it may well be due to population density differences, but if that's true, it implies the outdoor restrictions are useless. Let's face it. CA is "special".
> 
> Every time I hear the double mask thing I am reminded how the elites are out of touch with the masses. Sure, they'll get some support from the media, but it's just not going to fly unless things take an unexpected turn for the worse. If things keep improving, it's going to get harder to enforce the existing requirements.


Ive always considered Colorado (like New Mexico and New Hampshire) a light blue state...blue politics thanks to Denver but still with a western heart.  If freedonia and the peoples republic of equity ever divorce Colorado New Mexico and Arizona will all have a hard time deciding which to join. New Hampshire Vermont and Maine have a similar dynamic. Bizarro world though is Virginia where you can go from blm bumper stickers in Arlington/Alexandria and find confederate flags by the time you hit the border with North Carolina....Virginia (along with southern Illinois and Northern California) would be ground zero of ugliness.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Another reason why things might not improve....
> 
> a. the egg heads are thinking the new variants are more contagious for children.  Children won't be fully vaccinated til 2022 at the earliest and it will be hard to mandate it before then.  If true (a huge if since it's unclear how much of this is fear mongering and how much of it is a real concern), California and other blue state schools will (barring a major political upheavel) not return to normal until late 2022-early 2023 at the earliest.
> b.  more fear mongering re youth sports but it seems that's where some of them are headed so (barring a major political upheavel) possibly those are disrupted until summer 2022.
> ...


Still wrong on the importance of youth vaccination for covid.

My kids will get it when available, but the lack of an under 16 shot isn't a show stopper.  A vaccinated adult population will still drive R below 1.  That is enough

Heck, we are below 1 now.  We just need to keep below 1 while the rest of us get vaccinated.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Still wrong on the importance of youth vaccination for covid.
> 
> My kids will get it when available, but the lack of an under 16 shot isn't a show stopper.  A vaccinated adult population will still drive R below 1.  That is enough
> 
> Heck, we are below 1 now.  We just need to keep below 1 while the rest of us get vaccinated.


agree again that’s the factual reality. I think you and I both concur the emergency will for all practical purposes be over by March-April. My point is the experts in team panic (and the teachers unions) seem to want to use the lack of availability of a childhood vaccine to prolong restrictions. For example, lausd is already planning contingencies which include in person hybrid in the fall to limit the number of kids on campus. Also the California tier system is sensitive That a vaccine refusal rate of 1/4-1/3 will mean there will be periodic low level outbreaks in the fall and they can’t make it mandatory until the eu label removed

you are citing facts but as the lockdowns have shown politics isn’t necessarily concerned with facts. How quickly things return to normal is purely a political question which in turn depends on whether folks like my sons godmother or the in-laws stop panicking despite the lack of a kids vaccine. The article seems like an attempt to gin up panic which we are hearing about variants, variants being more deadly to kids, and sports being uniquely dangerous. my sons private school for example has been told and is prepping the parents already for face masks being mandatory into 2021-2022 school year. I can tell you also there are some that are concerned j&j only 65% effective and they don’t want it because it doesn’t guarantee they are safe. So the question is: when do those panicking now say enough and demand a return to normal?

with the caveat all bets are off if there’s a variant that mutates away from vaccines.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> agree again that’s the factual reality. I think you and I both concur the emergency will for all practical purposes be over by March-April. My point is the experts in team panic (and the teachers unions) seem to want to use the lack of availability of a childhood vaccine to prolong restrictions. For example, lausd is already planning contingencies which include in person hybrid in the fall to limit the number of kids on campus. Also the California tier system is sensitive That a vaccine refusal rate of 1/4-1/3 will mean there will be periodic low level outbreaks in the fall and they can’t make it mandatory until the eu label removed
> 
> you are citing facts but as the lockdowns have shown politics isn’t necessarily concerned with facts. How quickly things return to normal is purely a political question which in turn depends on whether folks like my sons godmother or the in-laws stop panicking despite the lack of a kids vaccine. The article seems like an attempt to gin up panic which we are hearing about variants, variants being more deadly to kids, and sports being uniquely dangerous. my sons private school for example has been told and is prepping the parents already for face masks being mandatory into 2021-2022 school year. I can tell you also there are some that are concerned j&j only 65% effective and they don’t want it because it doesn’t guarantee they are safe. So the question is: when do those panicking now say enough and demand a return to normal?
> 
> with the caveat all bets are off if there’s a variant that mutates away from vaccines.


my sons godmother btw is the perfect rep for team panic (my younger brother and in-laws too). She and I were discussing the lausd plans (her daughter il is a mid level admin in special needs and esl planning) and vaccines Friday.  Except for her daily walk (where she steps out of the way to avoid anyone in the streets), shlepping her mom around or going to the market/pharmacy she hasnt left the house since March. She’s in a full blown panic still even though she’s in her 40s, white, type o blood, no major health concerns except some early arthritis. She was in tears at the notion she might be forced into the j&j vaccine. I assured her it was safe and shown to reduce serious illness but she’s been so worked up (she kept saying fauci says) she worries about long term consequences of even mild illness and doesn’t want to take any risk whatsoever.


----------



## dad4 (Jan 30, 2021)

Panic over by April and masks until next June isn't so awful.  Not sure if masks everywhere counts as back to normal, but I think that's where we are headed.

Still on track for orange in March.

Maybe Surf will be on for August.   Maybe not.  I'd trade it for a spring season at this point.  Taking my normal in small doses.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Panic over by April and masks until next June isn't so awful.  Not sure if masks everywhere counts as back to normal, but I think that's where we are headed.
> 
> Still on track for orange in March.
> 
> Maybe Surf will be on for August.   Maybe not.  I'd trade it for a spring season at this point.  Taking my normal in small doses.


Here's another story.  My father's an MD and my mother was a nurse practioner.  We went up to their house to do our pharmacy/grocery run (boys do their grocery shopping while I pick up their scrip in the pharmacy).  They've had first dose moderna.  They've had trouble scheduling their second shot but it looks like they are going to get it on day 35.  The boys were raking the leaves and I was enjoying a cocktail in the yard when he calls me over facetime to discuss something serious.  He said I and my brothers need to prepare for them to be recluses from now on.  He's very scared about the virus mutating away from the vaccines and ever getting sick because of it's serious consequences.  My mouth hit the floor...my first question was did you discuss this with mom (she's a high e, while he's a mid level i).  But nope, he's very serious because of all the talk about the new variants and despite being a doc and knowing the science, is scared out of his mind.   Have initiated discussions with my siblings about staging an intervention.   Part of his reasoning is if masks are necessary that means it's still not safe.


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 30, 2021)

Then there's this gem......









						New clinical trials raise fears the coronavirus is learning how to resist vaccines
					

Researchers once believed t would take months or even years for the virus to develop resistance to vaccines. The speedy evolution is largely a result of the virus' unchecked spread.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jan 30, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1355369562162622464


----------



## Glitterhater (Jan 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> my sons godmother btw is the perfect rep for team panic (my younger brother and in-laws too). She and I were discussing the lausd plans (her daughter il is a mid level admin in special needs and esl planning) and vaccines Friday.  Except for her daily walk (where she steps out of the way to avoid anyone in the streets), shlepping her mom around or going to the market/pharmacy she hasnt left the house since March. She’s in a full blown panic still even though she’s in her 40s, white, type o blood, no major health concerns except some early arthritis. She was in tears at the notion she might be forced into the j&j vaccine. I assured her it was safe and shown to reduce serious illness but she’s been so worked up (she kept saying fauci says) she worries about long term consequences of even mild illness and doesn’t want to take any risk whatsoever.


I am definitely not the panic type but I have to say the stories of the long haulers have been a bit frightening. Mainly because this virus is just so damn weird!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jan 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> agree again that’s the factual reality. I think you and I both concur the emergency will for all practical purposes be over by March-April. My point is the experts in team panic (and the teachers unions) seem to want to use the lack of availability of a childhood vaccine to prolong restrictions. For example, lausd is already planning contingencies which include in person hybrid in the fall to limit the number of kids on campus. Also the California tier system is sensitive That a vaccine refusal rate of 1/4-1/3 will mean there will be periodic low level outbreaks in the fall and they can’t make it mandatory until the eu label removed
> 
> you are citing facts but as the lockdowns have shown politics isn’t necessarily concerned with facts. How quickly things return to normal is purely a political question which in turn depends on whether folks like my sons godmother or the in-laws stop panicking despite the lack of a kids vaccine. The article seems like an attempt to gin up panic which we are hearing about variants, variants being more deadly to kids, and sports being uniquely dangerous. my sons private school for example has been told and is prepping the parents already for face masks being mandatory into 2021-2022 school year. I can tell you also there are some that are concerned j&j only 65% effective and they don’t want it because it doesn’t guarantee they are safe. So the question is: when do those panicking now say enough and demand a return to normal?
> 
> with the caveat all bets are off if there’s a variant that mutates away from vaccines.


Yeah, Team Panic is exacerbating the irrationality.

We are over 10 months invested in attempts to mitigate the effects of the virus. The best we can come up with in SC County right now is a new mandate that children have to were masks for the duration of the socially distanced soccer training. Well, that is if they are training with an official team. If you are out at the local park, no such social distancing or mask mandate has been enforced. Oh, and you can't train on city fields in Mountain View either and probably many other facilities in the county as well since at least 3 big clubs are on one of the only private facilities in the county. How does cramming all these clubs into one facility help stop the spread of the virus? Please correct me if any of what I write here is incorrect, but I believe we have a very good idea of the areas (zip codes) where the virus is spreading most in the county. So, what are the leaders doing about it? Is there a mass education effort going on to help these areas? Do we need to be handing out masks in these communities? I can't imagine we couldn't find an abundance of well-educated volunteers in the county. Google, Facebook, etc. would likely welcome the good publicity of donating masks and/or employee time to help in the cause. As far as I can tell, none of this is happening. I am seeing is a bit of crying on camera. Does that count as leadership?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Panic over by April and masks until next June isn't so awful.  Not sure if masks everywhere counts as back to normal, but I think that's where we are headed.
> 
> Still on track for orange in March.
> 
> Maybe Surf will be on for August.   Maybe not.  I'd trade it for a spring season at this point.  Taking my normal in small doses.


Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?

***

An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.









						Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
					

Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## crush (Feb 1, 2021)

Sheeples in socal are waking up like never before kicking and screaming.  I have a few really good friends ((teachers)) who are not blind anymore and see what this is really about.  Stay calm and always show kindness.  I hope everyone has a great Monday : )


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
> 
> ***
> 
> ...


My father, an md, has gone over the deep end. He apparently knows this guy and thinks he’s 100% spot on. Thinks the government is lying about the new variants so as to prevent panic and the rich from bribing up vaccines. Thinks we are in for Armageddon and is advising us to stack up on tp again and prepare for hard lock up for the rest of the year. I point out to him the data out of the Uk so far doesn’t support this and the experts are in an irrational panic and trying to scare folks into vaccines since they can’t force it. He says fauci wouldn’t do that.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 1, 2021)

crush said:


> Sheeples in socal are waking up like never before kicking and screaming.  I have a few really good friends ((teachers)) who are not blind anymore and see what this is really about.  Stay calm and always show kindness.  I hope everyone has a great Monday : )


Calm and kindness is always good advice, Crush!


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
> 
> ***
> 
> ...


I'm really beginning to think that the question of how quickly things return to normal is not really a data question, or even a political question, but how quickly these people can be calmed down from their irrational panic.  The fact that some (like this guy or my father) are educated thoughtful MDs should give us pause.  But it's a psychological question.  It's also complicated by the fact that the level of panic differs over the red/blue divide, though I'm sure there are R hypochondriacs out there....anyone in the house have insight?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My father, an md, has gone over the deep end. He apparently knows this guy and thinks he’s 100% spot on. Thinks the government is lying about the new variants so as to prevent panic and the rich from bribing up vaccines. Thinks we are in for Armageddon and is advising us to stack up on tp again and prepare for hard lock up for the rest of the year. I point out to him the data out of the Uk so far doesn’t support this and the experts are in an irrational panic and trying to scare folks into vaccines since they can’t force it. He says fauci wouldn’t do that.


Six weeks out - I'm guessing by then about 55-60% seroprevalence - 40-45% had it or were vaccinated 15%. That has to be way over the seroprevalence in the UK when it took off. Also, our most at risk will likely be vaccinated or at least had the opportunity to be vaccinated by then. I just don't see where we are going to "see something like we have not seen yet in this country". And, oh yeah, the UK was bad, but not worse than what we have seen, and again, at lower seroprevalence and not having the high-risk group vaccinated.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Six weeks out - I'm guessing by then about 55-60% seroprevalence - 40-45% had it or were vaccinated 15%. That has to be way over the seroprevalence in the UK when it took off. Also, our most at risk will likely be vaccinated or at least had the opportunity to be vaccinated by then. I just don't see where we are going to "see something like we have not seen yet in this country". And, oh yeah, the UK was bad, but not worse than what we have seen, and again, at lower seroprevalence and not having the high-risk group vaccinated.


Well, from what I gathered from part of my father's reasoning, the new variants might be more infectious against even those who have had it before, but maybe not have gotten a full immunity (such as the asymptomatic carriers we've heard so much about).  Further, he's worried that evolutionary pressure will begin to steer the variants away from vaccine coverage.  He also thinks the govt is just lying about the more contagious, not more deadly part, to avoid a panic.  Again none of this based in science.  Just irrational panics of what ifs.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
> 
> ***
> 
> ...


He’s talking about the UK variant.  It is around 70% more transmissible, and will be dominant in the US by around March.   Nationally, that’s a problem.   It kicks Rt up from 0.8 to 1.36.   That’s the difference between dividing in half every 2 weeks, and doubling every 2 weeks.

Which is why he wants to focus on first shots.  If 1/4 of people are immune, that 1.36 drops down to 1.   No longer runaway growth.

For LA, it is different.  LA already has a more transmissible variant.  Maybe 1.5 times as bad.  Which means not much changes when you introduce a UK variant that is 1.7 times as bad.  The UK portion of infections might have Rt = 0.9 instead of 0.8.  Not spreading.  

The South Africa one worries me more.  If the vaccines work less well, that may also mean that having recovered also works less well.  But we have more time on that one.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> He’s talking about the UK variant.  It is around 70% more transmissible, and will be dominant in the US by around March.   Nationally, that’s a problem.   It kicks Rt up from 0.8 to 1.36.   That’s the difference between dividing in half every 2 weeks, and doubling every 2 weeks.
> 
> Which is why he wants to focus on first shots.  If 1/4 of people are immune, that 1.36 drops down to 1.   No longer runaway growth.
> 
> ...


Correct me if I'm wrong please, but then is the conclusion a 3rd wave is still very much a possibility....just that in places like Los Angeles (and presumably places like North Dakota) it won't be as bad because of the seroprevalence in those areas, but for places with a relatively lower seroprevalence (such as for example the Bay Area), they still might get a moderate third wave?


----------



## dad4 (Feb 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Six weeks out - I'm guessing by then about 55-60% seroprevalence - 40-45% had it or were vaccinated 15%. That has to be way over the seroprevalence in the UK when it took off. Also, our most at risk will likely be vaccinated or at least had the opportunity to be vaccinated by then. I just don't see where we are going to "see something like we have not seen yet in this country". And, oh yeah, the UK was bad, but not worse than what we have seen, and again, at lower seroprevalence and not having the high-risk group vaccinated.


Remember that we vaccinate a lot of people who have had covid.   If we are at 10% confirmed infected and 40% total infected, the only people who delay the vaccine are the 10% confirmed.  The 30% who had it, but never knew, still get in line for vaccine.

It drops the seroprevalence number a smidge.   Less so for early vaccinations, since the 75 year olds are more likely to know whether they have had it.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

This belongs in the good news thread but for the fact that even with the second shot there is still a very low portion of people needing hospitalization.  For people scared of long COVID or getting it at all, this won't help with the panic since they'll still be news stories.









						Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections
					

Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

Dad4's numbers don't make it look good for youth sports and schools this spring <sigh>

Here's the line coming out on kids and the new variant.  So the new variants don't target kids more than olders.  It still affects them less and they still think its less contagious for them.  But since it's more contagious for everyone, the question with kids (particularly since again 16 year olds are not looking like they'll get vaccinated until summer, 12-16 in the fall, and under 12 not until as late as 2022...with some wiggle room for 15 and 10-11 year olds) is what impact therefore on schools and youth sports....does it raise the threshold (notwithstanding kids being affected less than adults) from schools/youth sports are not a danger to community to spread to yeah it is.  Given the panic still prevalent on team panic, that's the line we will be increasingly hearing.....









						What new COVID variants mean for schools is not yet clear
					

Children are no more susceptible to these lineages than adults are — and closing schools on the basis of incomplete information could have repercussions.




					www.nature.com


----------



## dad4 (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong please, but then is the conclusion a 3rd wave is still very much a possibility....just that in places like Los Angeles (and presumably places like North Dakota) it won't be as bad because of the seroprevalence in those areas, but for places with a relatively lower seroprevalence (such as for example the Bay Area), they still might get a moderate third wave?


Anywhere with Rt > 0.6, and the normal variant could be in trouble.  That is most of the country.  At least it hits in spring, when some places start to head back outside.

LA and ND are different.   LA already has a bad variant, so the UK one is isn’t much worse.  ND has the normal variant.  For them, the UK one is worse.   You could still see a spike among 30%-50% or so of people in ND who have not yet had it. 

Of course, ND already saw a spike among 50%-70% of their population, so it won’t be “unlike anything they have ever seen”.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Anywhere with Rt > 0.6, and the normal variant could be in trouble.  That is most of the country.  At least it hits in spring, when some places start to head back outside.
> 
> LA and ND are different.   LA already has a bad variant, so the UK one is isn’t much worse.  ND has the normal variant.  For them, the UK one is worse.   You could still see a spike among 30%-50% or so of people in ND who have not yet had it.
> 
> Of course, ND already saw a spike among 50%-70% of their population, so it won’t be “unlike anything they have ever seen”.


"unlike anything they have ever seen"

well, for one thing, people should worry if you and I are in agreement.  Don't see much of anything to dispute here.  I've always had a hunch we'd see a mild-moderate spring wave, though this is the first time I've seen the reasoning laid out.

I agree it won't be "unlike anything they have ever seen", though. There just isn't any evidence of a huge new round of deaths in the UK, particularly in young people, and by then the most vulnerable among us will have hopefully gotten at least their first jab which will bring the death rate way down.  The question then is what do we do to break the panic.  There will still be news stories of the 40-50 year olds cut down in the prime of life, still fears about long COVID.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "unlike anything they have ever seen"
> 
> well, for one thing, people should worry if you and I are in agreement.  Don't see much of anything to dispute here.  I've always had a hunch we'd see a mild-moderate spring wave, though this is the first time I've seen the reasoning laid out.
> 
> I agree it won't be "unlike anything they have ever seen", though. There just isn't any evidence of a huge new round of deaths in the UK, particularly in young people, and by then the most vulnerable among us will have hopefully gotten at least their first jab which will bring the death rate way down.  *The question then is what do we do to break the panic. * There will still be news stories of the 40-50 year olds cut down in the prime of life, still fears about long COVID.


If you break the panic too well, people start hosting dinner parties again.  In that case, throw my analysis out the window.  You’ll get a spring surge just from the behavior changes.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "unlike anything they have ever seen"
> 
> well, for one thing, people should worry if you and I are in agreement.  Don't see much of anything to dispute here.  I've always had a hunch we'd see a mild-moderate spring wave, though this is the first time I've seen the reasoning laid out.
> 
> I agree it won't be "unlike anything they have ever seen", though. There just isn't any evidence of a huge new round of deaths in the UK, particularly in young people, and by then the most vulnerable among us will have hopefully gotten at least their first jab which will bring the death rate way down.  The question then is what do we do to break the panic.  There will still be news stories of the 40-50 year olds cut down in the prime of life, still fears about long COVID.


I feel like extreme, difficult to support, pronouncements such as these are not far from yelling "Fire!" in a theatre. Any thoughts as to what happens to this guy if things never get "unlike anything they have ever seen"? He also said something about a "Category 5 ... He will lose all credibility in my eyes, but I have little doubt others will continue to quote his "expert" opinion when it suits their ends. I'll wait 6-14 weeks before I decide whether his opinion gets any respect from me going forward. If he's correct, I'll be impressed.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you break the panic too well, people start hosting dinner parties again.  In that case, throw my analysis out the window.  You’ll get a spring surge just from the behavior changes.


The issue with the panic, though, is it's not directed at those dinner parties.  It's directed at the easy targets like the kids (which is why we have talk about LAUSD being hybrid only next year and youth sports being uniquely dangerous) and outdoor dining (which in turn encourages those dinner parties).  At a certain point we have to say f' it...the most vulnerable are vaccinated or have been offered it, but open it back up.....Florida's done it so can we.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

Preach it!  We are in an irrational panic.





__





						Post | efmproject
					






					www.evergreenfamilymedicine.com


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## kickingandscreaming (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you break the panic too well, people start hosting dinner parties again.  In that case, throw my analysis out the window.  You’ll get a spring surge just from the behavior changes.


Isn't "control through panic" an oxymoron?


----------



## dad4 (Feb 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Isn't "control through panic" an oxymoron?


Look above.  It’s 2021 and Grace is still preaching against masks.  We have several peer reviewed studies showing effectiveness, and she’s quoting some GP in rural Oregon who doesn’t realize he is outside his field.

If you’re going to be stupid about it and ignore simple advice like masks, then maybe a bit more respect for the virus would be appropriate.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> is it's not directed at those dinner parties. It's directed at the easy targets like the kids (which is why we have talk about LAUSD being hybrid only next year and youth sports being uniquely dangerous) and outdoor dining (which in turn encourages those dinner parties).


Don't worry LAUSD is working on the important things. Reason #...oh f*** it, why my kids are not in public school. 



			https://achieve.lausd.net/site/handlers/filedownload.ashx?moduleinstanceid=62012&dataid=102085&FileName=ALLBLMWOAwed.pdf


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## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look above.  It’s 2021 and Grace is still preaching against masks.  We have several peer reviewed studies showing effectiveness, and she’s quoting some GP in rural Oregon who doesn’t realize he is outside his field.
> 
> If you’re going to be stupid about it and ignore simple advice like masks, then maybe a bit more respect for the virus would be appropriate.


I'm not preaching against masks.  I'm preaching that we should stop lying about the effectiveness.  Then we don't have people doing stupid things like showing up to their grandparents house at Christmas for 4 hours and claiming it's o.k. because everyone is wearing masks.

I just watched "The Big Short" again....the entire story is a bunch of small timers telling the big boys they got it wrong....great movie about the limitations of the expert class.  Guy in rural Oregon is taking precautions when he sees COVID patients....he's just realistic about what a cloth mask can do.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Don't worry LAUSD is working on the important things. Reason #...oh f*** it, why my kids are not in public school.
> 
> 
> 
> https://achieve.lausd.net/site/handlers/filedownload.ashx?moduleinstanceid=62012&dataid=102085&FileName=ALLBLMWOAwed.pdf


LAUSD is deep into plans which will have next year hybrid only until kids can get vaccinated.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Isn't "control through panic" an oxymoron?


My son would attest to the truth of this story.  We were stopped at a light yesterday close to Sunset and Highland were the Academy Award theatre is.  We both look at the pickup truck next to us and there is this guy in a full blown gas mask, face shield, bright yellow kitchen gloves next to us.  We both look over and our eyes pop up.  Unless the guy was transporting COVID soiled masks or blankets in the cab of his truck, not sure what he was doing.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm not preaching against masks.  I'm preaching that we should stop lying about the effectiveness.  Then we don't have people doing stupid things like showing up to their grandparents house at Christmas for 4 hours and claiming it's o.k. because everyone is wearing masks.
> 
> I just watched "The Big Short" again....the entire story is a bunch of small timers telling the big boys they got it wrong....great movie about the limitations of the expert class.  Guy in rural Oregon is taking precautions when he sees COVID patients....he's just realistic about what a cloth mask can do.


Then why post the link?  That link is not an argument against visiting grandma.  (which would be a responsible post.)

That link is a straight up argument against purchasing and wearing cloth and surgical masks. 

And not even a good argument at that. 

He’s just a GP.  He is certainly not qualified to evaluate epidemiology research.  Nor is he up to date.  The text is still talking about protecting the wearer, instead of reducing outbound transmission.

It’s just one more half-informed rant from someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about.  Same as the right wing nutters used to post here back in April.  Care to follow it up with a picture of a chain link fence?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Then why post the link?  That link is not an argument against visiting grandma.  (which would be a responsible post.)
> 
> That link is a straight up argument against purchasing and wearing cloth and surgical masks.
> 
> ...


Because he even pokes the maskers with this argument you are making now: "Why are we poking this tiger, this mask issue now?"  "Wearing a mask is easy to do.   Can't you just shut up and wear the damn mask?"

And this is the EXACT same thing that happened in 2008 with all the experts saying the housing market could never crash.  They weren't complete non-credential experts (this guy is an MD), just a bunch of outsiders telling the big boy establishment they were wrong.  And like in 2008, they were responded to by saying they were wrong, they weren't credentialed, they were nutters.  The anti-lockdowners got it right...the establishmentarian experts got it wrong.

Now, once we've established the current policy is wrong it's a separate question of what we do about it.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

If this holds up it's NEVER going to go away....we will have to learn to live with it, hopefully with a death rate on par or lower than the flu.....if it eventually mutates away from the vaccine (which there is some scant evidence that it is beginning to do), EVERYONE will eventually get it but hopefully with not a huge death rate as our bodies get an initial exposure from the virus or vaccines....










						COVID-19 reinfection is ‘common’ among young people, study finds
					

A new study of young people found that COVID-19 reinfection was “common” among those who had the virus. The study, published Friday in the preprint server MedRxiv, examined 3,249 young, healthy mos…




					nypost.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If this holds up it's NEVER going to go away....we will have to learn to live with it, hopefully with a death rate on par or lower than the flu.....if it eventually mutates away from the vaccine (which there is some scant evidence that it is beginning to do), EVERYONE will eventually get it but hopefully with not a huge death rate as our bodies get an initial exposure from the virus or vaccines....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Why would we assume it goes away.

It seems very flu like. The main difference being that up until now we haven't had a vaccine.

It seems much more likely this is a yearly thing with different strains like the flu vs let's say polio which for all intents and purposes went away with that vaccine


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Why would we assume it goes away.
> 
> It seems very flu like. The main difference being that up until now we haven't had a vaccine.
> 
> It seems much more likely this is a yearly thing with different strains like the flu vs let's say polio which for all intents and purposes went away with that vaccine


If the article is correct, I think you are right.  People are still going to die from the thing....particularly older people if the virus mutates away from the vaccine and they can't get the vaccine right every year.   It won't be as high as the death rate from this novel new virus our bodies haven't really seen (except for some cross reactions to other coronaviruses, which is probably why the death rates aren't in the 2-3% level like they thought it would be initially).  It will be closer (maybe even less) than the flu.  We gonna do the tier thing every winter?  Kids in school in masks forever?


----------



## dad4 (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Because he even pokes the maskers with this argument you are making now: "Why are we poking this tiger, this mask issue now?"  "Wearing a mask is easy to do.   Can't you just shut up and wear the damn mask?"
> 
> And this is the EXACT same thing that happened in 2008 with all the experts saying the housing market could never crash.  They weren't complete non-credential experts (this guy is an MD), just a bunch of outsiders telling the big boy establishment they were wrong.  And like in 2008, they were responded to by saying they were wrong, they weren't credentialed, they were nutters.  The anti-lockdowners got it right...the establishmentarian experts got it wrong.
> 
> Now, once we've established the current policy is wrong it's a separate question of what we do about it.


So, your new argument is that the 2008 housing market proves that masks do not work?

Right.  Got it.

Along those lines, I also understand that the Treaty of Versailles proves that you cannot get mercury poisoning from seafood.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

Small criticisms....a. hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, b. the graphs do show small bumps in some states 1-2 weeks after the holiday, but basically correct.  Gatherings were not enough in these states to create "surge upon surge" and the big driver of this is seasonality.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1356375458477191173


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, your new argument is that the 2008 housing market proves that masks do not work?
> 
> Right.  Got it.
> 
> Along those lines, I also understand that the Treaty of Versailles proves that you cannot get mercury poisoning from seafood.


No my argument is the expert-class if full of themselves and for (various yet to be explained factors) will have a tendency to get these type of analysis wrong which slightly credentialed outsiders with a tendency to bet "don't pass" have an easier time spotting.


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If the article is correct, I think you are right.  People are still going to die from the thing....particularly older people if the virus mutates away from the vaccine and they can't get the vaccine right every year.   It won't be as high as the death rate from this novel new virus our bodies haven't really seen (except for some cross reactions to other coronaviruses, which is probably why the death rates aren't in the 2-3% level like they thought it would be initially).  It will be closer (maybe even less) than the flu.  We gonna do the tier thing every winter?  Kids in school in masks forever?


Good questions. Looks like political ideology and local officials will drive what continues years after the vaccines are widely distributed. If my county/community decides it is never going to allow normality to return to school, sports and life, my family will have to relocate to a community that will. I will not accept these mandates or measures forever and will move my family to a place that believes in common sense, science and data to make informed public health guidelines. Looks like Southern California might not be the place for my family any longer and that is sad because I could never imagine a circumstance until now that would make me want to leave. Hope the housing market doesn’t crash before I decide if I need to sell my home and a uHaul is only affordable to our elitist class of people l.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No my argument is the expert-class if full of themselves and for (various yet to be explained factors) will have a tendency to get these type of analysis wrong which slightly credentialed outsiders with a tendency to bet "don't pass" have an easier time spotting.


That was exactly my point.

Those so called experts telling us to stop eating shark fin soup while pregnant don't know what they're talking about.  

They just want to make us all panic because they are full of themselves coocoo environmentalists.  Those lab tests about methylmercury don't mean anything about the real world.  

How is my logic any worse than yours?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That was exactly my point.
> 
> Those so called experts telling us to stop eating shark fin soup while pregnant don't know what they're talking about.
> 
> ...


There’s two parts of this application.  The first is the data. That’s what the math hats are good at. The next part is the conclusions.  Here for a variety of reasons (when it comes to economics, real estate, health policy,  and education) they fail.  It goes back to the discussion we had about why they don’t let math guys like you have final say in running comps. Or why in “Margin Call” they put the idiot that mixes his metaphors in charge of the rocket scientist. They aren’t very good at it for a variety of reasons. And when the check on them is panicky politicians, it’s a disaster.  The person reviewing the data might very well decide shark fin soup for pregnant women not so good...they could also decide no shark fin soup for anyone....or we need more sharks(which will make the surfers unhappy).  Someone at the table needs to be there to ask...hey how about the surfers?


----------



## dad4 (Feb 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Small criticisms....a. hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, b. the graphs do show small bumps in some states 1-2 weeks after the holiday, but basically correct.  Gatherings were not enough in these states to create "surge upon surge" and the big driver of this is seasonality.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1356375458477191173


Same explanation as before: you don’t get a Christmas spike if you manage to infect most of your population before the holidays.

What you get is a slowing of the decline.  Which is evident in the fact that your graph is concave down from 12/15 to 1/15.   A decline would normally be concave up: exponential decay.

Take a look at the rest of the country if you want to see the holiday bump more clearly.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Same explanation as before: you don’t get a Christmas spike if you manage to infect most of your population before the holidays.
> 
> What you get is a slowing of the decline.  Which is evident in the fact that your graph is concave down from 12/15 to 1/15.   A decline would normally be concave up: exponential decay.
> 
> Take a look at the rest of the country if you want to see the holiday bump more clearly.


California as a whole peaks dec 17-20 well before Christmas.  There is a second peak a little after new year.  The second peak is not as high as the first.  I agree there is a holiday bump (and in the cases you cite it slowed the decline). It wasn’t Armageddon on Armageddon.  It definitely impacted the curve. It did not radically alter it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 2, 2021)

“The lockdowns have been an enormous and ineffective overreaction, not actually protecting the population from COVID. While at the same time, the collateral damage is absolutely devastating,” he said. 

“It’s an unfocused overreaction…*We just should have focused on the population we knew to be at risk, protected them, thought of creative ways to protect them from the beginning of the epidemic*…And for the rest of the population, the lockdown, we should have been thinking about the collateral damage from the very beginning.” 









						Stanford Doctor Blasts COVID Lockdowns, Were an ‘Overreaction’ to ‘Protect the Rich’  | Human Events
					

After months of extreme lockdown measures, business closures and overall restrictions on life as we knew it, one doctor is speaking out. Dr....




					humanevents.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

After Fauci bouncing back and forth for several days, we've reached peak stupidity and the CDC is studying recommending double masks.  I tell you right now, if they try to mandate it I won't do it.  Here's my red line.  They don't even have solid proof the single masks in real world conditions can do anything.  And remember, they are talking about this going on for years folks (for reasons previously discussed: kids not fully vaccinated until 2022, the J&J and other non-mRNA vaccine being partially effective, virus variants mutating away from the vaccines). Nope.









						Fauci says CDC may recommend double-masking
					

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may soon recommend all Americans wear two masks to enhance their protection against coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday. “It makes commo…




					nypost.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

My brothers and I just went 3 rounds talking about how to talk my father off the ledge and his intent to remain under quarantine, despite in 1 week he'll be fully vaccinated.  Particularly with my younger brother, who is also in an irrational panic, it was painful.  Think I've finally lined up everyone to see the light particularly with the argument it's not fair to either my mother or the grandkids.  But man, it was a lesson on how rational arguments fall on deaf ears when people are in panic mode.


----------



## espola (Feb 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> After Fauci bouncing back and forth for several days, we've reached peak stupidity and the CDC is studying recommending double masks.  I tell you right now, if they try to mandate it I won't do it.  Here's my red line.  They don't even have solid proof the single masks in real world conditions can do anything.  And remember, they are talking about this going on for years folks (for reasons previously discussed: kids not fully vaccinated until 2022, the J&J and other non-mRNA vaccine being partially effective, virus variants mutating away from the vaccines). Nope.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Looks like you're having a panic attack.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

espola said:


> Looks like you're having a panic attack.


"Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"

Post a pic of you in your double mask.  I'm sure you'll look cute in that little yellow car of yours.


----------



## espola (Feb 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"
> 
> Post a pic of you in your double mask.  I'm sure you'll look cute in that little yellow car of yours.


No mask, single mask, double mask, whatever -- the relative effectiveness of all of those choices should be easy to prove or disprove.

Since you are so heavily dedicated to personality types (a subtle form of prejudice ("all you e's are just alike")) , just let me prejudge that as a scientist you make a good poet.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

espola said:


> No mask, single mask, double mask, whatever -- the relative effectiveness of all of those choices should be easy to prove or disprove.
> 
> Since you are so heavily dedicated to personality types (a subtle form of prejudice ("all yoou e's are just alike")) , just let me prejudge that as a scientist you make a good poet.


Wait....so you are a scientist?   Please tell me more?  What's your field...genuinely interested?

The mask thing hasn't been easy to prove because it would require a RCS which has been deemed unethical in the current environment (basically deliberately exposing people to COVID in real world situations and seeing if the masks do anything).  So we are stuck with observational and modeling studies, and the studies (mostly observational) which were done on the flu before the pandemic, and Denmark.

I suspect actually that you and I may have mirror personalities (which is why we seem to dislike each other so much, with the mirror being in the e or i).    It also shows you are a very poor judge of character because my personality type is probably self-evident to anyone with a relative level of self-awareness.  I am relatively far away from poet in the personality type, though I have had a romantic streak which has caused no end to difficulties.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 2, 2021)

So what’s the take on this?   Have we been misrepresenting the cases with hypersensitive testing?









						WHO Information Notice for IVD Users 2020/05
					

Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 Date: 13 January 2021                                                                       WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2 Target audience: laboratory professionals and...




					www.who.int


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Then why post the link?  That link is not an argument against visiting grandma.  (which would be a responsible post.)
> 
> That link is a straight up argument against purchasing and wearing cloth and surgical masks.
> 
> ...


April? You mean back when the one nutter wagered that there would be no more than 12,500 deaths?


----------



## espola (Feb 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wait....so you are a scientist?   Please tell me more?  What's your field...genuinely interested?
> 
> The mask thing hasn't been easy to prove because it would require a RCS which has been deemed unethical in the current environment (basically deliberately exposing people to COVID in real world situations and seeing if the masks do anything).  So we are stuck with observational and modeling studies, and the studies (mostly observational) which were done on the flu before the pandemic, and Denmark.
> 
> I suspect actually that you and I may have mirror personalities (which is why we seem to dislike each other so much, with the mirror being in the e or i).    It also shows you are a very poor judge of character because my personality type is probably self-evident to anyone with a relative level of self-awareness.  I am relatively far away from poet in the personality type, though I have had a romantic streak which has caused no end to difficulties.


In order of study - mathematics, chemistry, physics, electronics, and computer engineering.  I have even had a touch of biology and psychology training along the way.  The most interesting learning I pursued is neural networks - sort of a mix of biology and mathematics, which got really interesting in the '80s when it became possible for electronic circuits to emulate biological mechanisms with a speed and density good enough to be useful (not just theoretical mathematical curiosities any more) and then leading up to now when we have computers able to do biologic-like things faster and more dependably than real brains.

My introduction to neural networks was taking a class thought by  Dr. Bart Kosko.  It was a UCSD Extension course, so the format was 3 hours one night a week.  The first week, we covered Dr. Kosko's recent paper on Bidirectional Associative Memories (after some appropriate leadup material), followed by a quiz on the material just presented.  By the next week, about half the class had dropped out.  



			http://sipi.usc.edu/~kosko/BAM.pdf
		


I don't buy into the personality type hogwash.  I judge people as individuals.

BTW, I didn't mean that you were a _good_ poet.


----------



## espola (Feb 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> April? You mean back when the one nutter wagered that there would be no more than 12,500 deaths?


I thought it was 15 and it would all go away by April.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

espola said:


> In order of study - mathematics, chemistry, physics, electronics, and computer engineering.  I have even had a touch of biology and psychology training along the way.  The most interesting learning I pursued is neural networks - sort of a mix of biology and mathematics, which got really interesting in the '80s when it became possible for electronic circuits to emulate biological mechanisms with a speed and density good enough to be useful (not just theoretical mathematical curiosities any more) and then leading up to now when we have computers able to do biologic-like things faster and more dependably than real brains.
> 
> My introduction to neural networks was taking a class thought by  Dr. Bart Kosko.  It was a UCSD Extension course, so the format was 3 hours one night a week.  The first week, we covered Dr. Kosko's recent paper on Bidirectional Associative Memories (after some appropriate leadup material), followed by a quiz on the material just presented.  By the next week, about half the class had dropped out.
> 
> ...


Impressive.  I take it from the above you (unlike dad or I) are not an "N", which would also explain our mutual antipathy and is probably another mirror.

No, I would not make a good poet.  When I was 25 I tried to write the great American novel.  Had always won praise from my teachers through college for fiction and I thought I could do it.  I could not.  The structure drove me insane even though the language was easy.  If I were to be a writer, I would be out of time and would be more interested in writing a 19th century Russian horror of a novel than within the current strictures of writing.

I am a master of reading people. It has been said my father is a gift for judgement, and my mother is empathic on the verge of psychic.  It would make me a wonder at the poker table except that I am incapable of lying convincingly myself.  The personality types are extremely useful at dissecting people's motivations and for understanding where they are coming from.  It is insufficient to analyze an argument purely on its text...you also have to analyze how it is made and how it is making it.  The personality tests are extremely useful for this purpose.  They, like other tools, are limited and only give out what the situation calls for.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 2, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So what’s the take on this?   Have we been misrepresenting the cases with hypersensitive testing?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not really.  PCR can’t invent a case where none ever existed.  They are talking about PCR detecting cases that exist, but are mild on the day of testing.  

Some of these are cases that are almost finished.  Some are cases that just have not grown yet.  And some are patients who just never develop a high viral load at all.  But all of them are patients who have an infection.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really.  PCR can’t invent a case where none ever existed.  They are talking about PCR detecting cases that exist, but are mild on the day of testing.
> 
> Some of these are cases that are almost finished.  Some are cases that just have not grown yet.  And some are patients who just never develop a high viral load at all.  But all of them are patients who have an infection.


Thanks for clarifying...Would such sensitivity potentially lead to detecting other viruses and creating a positive?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really.  PCR can’t invent a case where none ever existed.  They are talking about PCR detecting cases that exist, but are mild on the day of testing.
> 
> Some of these are cases that are almost finished.  Some are cases that just have not grown yet.  And some are patients who just never develop a high viral load at all.  But all of them are patients who have an infection.


Doesn't it come down to a definitional issue, though?  If the person doesn't have a high enough viral load that they never actually develop illness, if that person doesn't have a high enough viral load that they can't be infectious, and if that person doesn't have a high enough viral load that they actually develop some-form of immunity, is it a case?  Presumably there are some people who have been exposed but the virus doesn't take a sufficient hold in their bodies to replicate because either there isn't enough material there or the immune system is somehow able to clear it out?


----------



## dad4 (Feb 2, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Thanks for clarifying...Would such sensitivity potentially lead to detecting other viruses and creating a positive?


No.  PCR can only detect a virus if it has exactly the same RNA as you are testing for.


----------



## watfly (Feb 2, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I am definitely not the panic type but I have to say the stories of the long haulers have been a bit frightening. Mainly because this virus is just so damn weird!


If you can stand Bryant Gumbel there was a good segment on Real Sports about "long haulers" that are athletes.  Interesting and a little scary, but fortunately rare.  The oddest thing is that it doesn't appear to effect male athletes.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Doesn't it come down to a definitional issue, though?  If the person doesn't have a high enough viral load that they never actually develop illness, if that person doesn't have a high enough viral load that they can't be infectious, and if that person doesn't have a high enough viral load that they actually develop some-form of immunity, is it a case?  Presumably there are some people who have been exposed but the virus doesn't take a sufficient hold in their bodies to replicate because either there isn't enough material there or the immune system is somehow able to clear it out?


It becomes an epidemiological issue.  

Group A is people who already had it, are recovering, and are now longer contagious.
Group B is people who just naturally have a low viral load, and will never be contagious.
Group C is people who have a low viral load, but are contagious anyway.
Group D is people who have a low viral load today, but will be contagious soon.

A and B are safe.  C and D are not.

You are asking how many people are in group A or B, and how many people are in group C or D.  I don’t know.  This is why we need those experts you dislike so much.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> If you can stand Bryant Gumbel there was a good segment on Real Sports about "long haulers" that are athletes.  Interesting and a little scary, but fortunately rare.  The oddest thing is that it doesn't appear to effect male athletes.


You have a link?  That's fascinating.  Men are generally more susceptible to the virus.  IIRC almost by a factor of .5.  Perhaps because of their superior cardiovascular systems?  Come to think of it, most of the longer haulers I know are all women.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It becomes an epidemiological issue.
> 
> Group A is people who already had it, are recovering, and are now longer contagious.
> Group B is people who just naturally have a low viral load, and will never be contagious.
> ...


It's the people in group B that most interest me.  If it's a large group, it would explain the policy choice.  C is the counterfactual.  A is baked into the cake already so are irrelevant.  D are probably the area of the highest concern from a policy point of view.

You misunderstand my antipathy for experts.  I agree this is exactly the type of data situation we need the experts to resolve.  Where the problem for the experts come is in interpreting the data and making a policy judgement, which for various reasons they aren't very good at doing and it's why from a public policy point of view we need a check on them (usually it's a market, but as we've seen markets have a tendency to break down, particularly if they are oriented to defer to the experts).  When it's a politician, it's a prescription for disaster.


----------



## watfly (Feb 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You have a link?  That's fascinating.  Men are generally more susceptible to the virus.  IIRC almost by a factor of .5.  Perhaps because of their superior cardiovascular systems?  Come to think of it, most of the longer haulers I know are all women.


I believe this is the full audio.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 2, 2021)

This actually good news...not bad.

So here you go.

"According to a Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker, 26.5 million people in the US have now received at least one dose of the vaccine, surpassing the 26.2 million coronavirus cases since the onset of the pandemic."

"The milestone comes at a time when the *US leads the world in daily coronavirus vaccine rates, with about 1.35 million doses administered per day*, according to Bloomberg.

*About 7.8% of Americans have now received at least one dose *of the COVID-19 vaccine, while 1.8% of the population is fully vaccinated, the report said."









						More Americans  have now been vaccinated for COVID-19 than infected
					

More Americans have been vaccinated for COVID-19, as of Monday, than have been infected with the illness as the nationwide inoculation rollout continues, according to a report. According to a Bloom…




					nypost.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 2, 2021)

And not so good news when your gov can do this. Not ours fortunately.









						2 million Australians forced into five-day "full lockdown" after single hotel security guard tests positive for COVID. And the arrests have already started.
					

Remember when we were told that all we needed to do was to "flatten the curve" so as to not overwhelm healthcare facilities?




					notthebee.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 2, 2021)

I wonder if I should use the vaccine that I bought through Alibaba.com and just arrived?









						Thousands Of Fake COVID-19 Vaccines Circulating in China
					

Thousands of fake COVID-19 vaccines have circulated in China. As a result, police departments in Jiangsu, Beijing and Shandong have arrested more than 80 people in response to the over…




					thenationalpulse.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> I believe this is the full audio.


Thanks.  Interesting.  My son's heart has checked out o.k., but for the first time since he was 3-5 (when he was in day care and had one RSV, cold and flu infection after another), he's had periodic asthma since he's been sick and has had to get an inhaler.  They aren't sure if I had COVID, but I've had issues for up to 8 months, only turning around at the beginning of this year.  I can relate to the some days I feel great and some days I don't thing.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And not so good news when your gov can do this. Not ours fortunately.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This article raises a fair point.  Why is it racist and xenophobic to call this bug "The China Virus" but it's perfectly acceptable to call the variants "The UK Variant" and "The South Africa Variant"?


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Feb 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> “The lockdowns have been an enormous and ineffective overreaction, not actually protecting the population from COVID. While at the same time, the collateral damage is absolutely devastating,” he said.
> 
> “It’s an unfocused overreaction…*We just should have focused on the population we knew to be at risk, protected them, thought of creative ways to protect them from the beginning of the epidemic*…And for the rest of the population, the lockdown, we should have been thinking about the collateral damage from the very beginning.”
> 
> ...


It has taken all of these “geniuses” too long to now realize what many normal everyday people knew in May. I am not professing to be know it’s all but I knew then that kids could play sports and go to school safely. Our politicians knew it too but because they wanted to purposely hurt the economy to gain the presidency they turned on their population and ruined business in their own state. These are the facts and have been for months. Not sure if treason is the proper word but if you define it as being a traitor, Newsom and many other politicians who purposefully hurt our children and many of their citizens livelihoods in the name of power have committed it.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This article raises a fair point.  Why is it racist and xenophobic to call this bug "The China Virus" but it's perfectly acceptable to call the variants "The UK Variant" and "The South Africa Variant"?


Maybe we should call it the "China Variant", and then it's ok?


----------



## Soccer Bum 06 (Feb 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This actually good news...not bad.
> 
> So here you go.
> 
> ...


The bad news is they wasted some doses by giving them to politician in DC.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 2, 2021)

espola said:


> I thought it was 15 and it would all go away by April.


Oh yeah that nutter too!


----------



## crush (Feb 3, 2021)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 3, 2021)

crush said:


>


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 3, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


>


My God.  You’re still crying about Trump?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 3, 2021)

Since we're all posting videos, here's one from a teen definitely worth your time.  The pro-lockdowners have a lot to answer for.....









						Teen’s Short Film Hauntingly Captures How A Pandemic Loop Feels
					

Filmmaker Sarah Polley called it the "best film I've seen in a long time."




					www.huffingtonpost.ca


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Since we're all posting videos, here's one from a teen definitely worth your time.  The pro-lockdowners have a lot to answer for.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Crushing.....


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> After Fauci bouncing back and forth for several days, we've reached peak stupidity and the CDC is studying recommending double masks.  I tell you right now, if they try to mandate it I won't do it.  Here's my red line.  They don't even have solid proof the single masks in real world conditions can do anything.  And remember, they are talking about this going on for years folks (for reasons previously discussed: kids not fully vaccinated until 2022, the J&J and other non-mRNA vaccine being partially effective, virus variants mutating away from the vaccines). Nope.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Have these guys (double maskers) ever seen the neighborhoods where the virus is currently most prevalent? How is one mask and distancing going in these neighborhoods? They are primarily preaching to folks who don't really go outside unless they have to when there isn't a pandemic and people who are hypersensitive to any "possible" threat and are freaking out accordingly (many are both). How out of touch can they possibly be?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 3, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> My God.  You’re still crying about Trump?


Just another EOTL "variant"


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 3, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Maybe we should call it the "China Variant", and then it's ok?


China "Originant"?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 3, 2021)

Looks like the Biden admin is having some trouble keeping everyone on the same page and on message.  He doesn't appear to be having much more luck with his health experts than Trump.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357162753207767042


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 4, 2021)

Yeah...let us not test them to show how bad not being in school is. If we test, more parents might realize just how bad the unions have been in preventing kids going back to school. It would make the unions look bad, and we cannot have that right?

_End-of-year testing, required by the federal government, should be waived for a second year to avoid “perpetuating the vast inequities in our state,” *argues the California Teachers Association.
*_


> _*The results won’t be valid, reliable, or useful. We don’t need test scores to know that children living in poverty and attending poorly resourced schools have fallen even farther behind in a pandemic. . . . Instead of more testing, we should be focusing on solutions that address poverty, racial inequities, and school funding disparities.*_


_Darren Miller, who blogs at Right on the Left Coast, is a California teacher who thinks the CTA doesn’t want to know how badly students are doing due to lockdowns. “Without testing, we won’t know which students need which additional help after not having been in school a year,” he writes. “Without testing, even the best students won’t know how far behind they are.”_






						How badly are students doing? — Joanne Jacobs
					






					www.joannejacobs.com
				




This made me almost choke on my toast when I read it.

_CTA, educators say *standardized tests would be detrimental to students*, of little use to schools._

To be fair, the CTA doesn't like standardized tests anyway. See their image below...ESPECIALLY during a pandemic. 









						A Call to Waive 2021 Assessments - California Teachers Association
					






					www.cta.org


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 4, 2021)

Trump and his team did a better job than Europe (but not the UK or Israel).......









						Opinion | Europe’s Vaccine Rollout Has Descended Into Chaos (Published 2021)
					

It should have been a success. What went wrong?




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Trump and his team did a better job than Europe (but not the UK or Israel).......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Funny how that works.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Trump and his team did a better job than Europe (but not the UK or Israel).......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


“The country could afford the mass purchases thanks to decades of economic growth, grounded in high-technology, medical research, water conservation, sophisticated weapons development, cybersecurity and more. The *growth was spurred by market-oriented public policies*, adopted after years of sluggish European-style socialism under Labor governments.”

"What have we learned so far? The earliest data covers the whole population, not subgroups, but it is very encouraging. It shows that the vaccine is actually more effective than Pfizer reported from its Phase 3 trials. By Jan. 30, six weeks after Israel began inoculations, more than 1.7 million Israelis had received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Another 1.3 million had received their first dose. Of those who received the full inoculation, only around 300 later showed any significant COVID symptoms (less than ½ of 1%). Only 16 needed hospital care, less than 0.002%. A single dose seems to provide about half the necessary protection."









						Why Israel Leads the World in Vaccinating Its Population
					

No country has been more successful in getting COVID vaccine to its citizens than Israel. Why? Three reasons stand out, and the third one is likely to help people around the world. Israel can vaccinate the population quickly because it has a very competent, comprehensive national health system...




					www.discoursemagazine.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like the Biden admin is having some trouble keeping everyone on the same page and on message.  He doesn't appear to be having much more luck with his health experts than Trump.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357162753207767042


Biden's team is stepping on themselves trying to corral their health experts....same as Trump.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357377759660699650


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 4, 2021)

Further stepping on their message....everyone needs to be vaccinated in order for us to get back to normal, but social distancing and masks are necessary even after vaccination....why then would anyone under 30 want to get a vaccine (particularly since the non-mRNA vaccines are not 100% efficient and you would likely get it anyways)?  Not a great sales pitch.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357381715401056256


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Biden's team is stepping on themselves trying to corral their health experts....same as Trump.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357377759660699650


The person at the CDC was speaking the truth. No issue with teachers going back to school. 

The problem is politically for Biden is that many of the unions don't want to go back yet.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> everyone needs to be vaccinated in order for us to get back to normal, but social distancing and masks are necessary even after vaccination


We have seen a variety of "top" people peddle this for some time. Expect them to try it and in many cases to succeed. 

Why would we need to social distance and wear masks if we have a vaccine out? 

We don't play this safety theater with other diseases floating around....flu for instance. A large percentage gets the vaccine every year, but we know despite that 30-90k will still die in the US in any given year. We don't shut down this or that. 

But these yahoo's are going to try for a totally different standard with covid. No thanks.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 4, 2021)

My kid has been in school since... september? Is varying degrees of hybrid. Have their been cases? Sure. There have been instances where neighboring schools had to rewind back to virtual due to an outbreak among trachers. 

But, IMO it hasn't been anything earth shattering. I am completely fine with them being on campus, no worries here. At some point they should look to other districts for guidance if they are struggling- real life examples of it working.

I cannot imagine my oldest STILL being totally virtual- how awful.


----------



## watfly (Feb 4, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> My kid has been in school since... september? Is varying degrees of hybrid. Have their been cases? Sure. There have been instances where neighboring schools had to rewind back to virtual due to an outbreak among trachers.
> 
> But, IMO it hasn't been anything earth shattering. I am completely fine with them being on campus, no worries here. At some point they should look to other districts for guidance if they are struggling- real life examples of it working.
> 
> I cannot imagine my oldest STILL being totally virtual- how awful.


There are only two reasons that people don't want kids back in school full-time, 1) unfounded fear, or 2) prisoner of a far left narrative.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 4, 2021)

Errr....this really looks really bad.  @dad4 I need your help interpreting the number here, but it looks like we are in a race between vaccination and a real super bad spring wave.   If I'm interpreting the numbers correctly, to suppress the new variant would require a superstrict lockdown (far stricter than the stupid Newsom December lockdowns) for which there is now virtually no political will left to do.  The best thing that could happen is the J&J and AZ vaccines could get rolling quickly and we use those to vaccinated the 40s-60s and essential workers, but the FDA is doing it's FDA thing and is making them jump through hoops to submit.  @dad4 would be interested in what you think.....




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357312201909018626


----------



## dad4 (Feb 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Errr....this really looks really bad.  @dad4 I need your help interpreting the number here, but it looks like we are in a race between vaccination and a real super bad spring wave.   If I'm interpreting the numbers correctly, to suppress the new variant would require a superstrict lockdown (far stricter than the stupid Newsom December lockdowns) for which there is now virtually no political will left to do.  The best thing that could happen is the J&J and AZ vaccines could get rolling quickly and we use those to vaccinated the 40s-60s and essential workers, but the FDA is doing it's FDA thing and is making them jump through hoops to submit.  @dad4 would be interested in what you think.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You need to get some good data on virus transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and cross immunity by variant.  I don’t have all that, but I can give you an idea of my logic:

The regular variant kicked our ass.  R0 was only 3, but we still had to infect 60% or so of the population in order to get over it.  

That puts our NPI as 1/6 effective.  It takes R=3 and drops it to R=2.5.   Multiply by 5/6.

b.117 has a higher R.  maybe R0=5.   Add in our lame attempts at NPI, and you get R = 25/6.

So b.117 wants to run until it gets 1-(6/25) of us.  76%

Fortunately, the vaccine mostly works, and that may mean that normal immunity mostly works.  if both work 90% of the time, 

you get 54% have working natural immunity and another 9% have vaccine immunity.  So, 63% have a working immunity.  The virus infects another 13%.  So, about 1/4 the size of our winter surge. Not fun.

Also preventable.  Many local areas manage NPI that is better than 5/6.  LA might be around 1/2.  They took a variant with R0=5 and made it look like R=2.5

If the nation can do as well as LA did, b.117 would not spread.  We’d be starting at 63%, but we’d only need 60.  Unless you significantly change behavior, I don’t think b117 will hit LA very hard at all.  The rest of us are in trouble.

When you run the same computation on the SA variant, it looks much worse.  Might be delayed because it will first hit during summer.  Might not.  (need a good way to represent weather.). Either way you start with much lower immunity, because the vaccine and traditional immunity are both less effective.  You’re still driving towards 75% or 76%, but you have further to go because you start much lower.  So, 30% of us get it if it can beat the weather, 25% if it has to wait for fall.   twice as bad as b.117.

Or, so says a math guy with no epidemiology training.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You need to get some good data on virus transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and cross immunity by variant.  I don’t have all that, but I can give you an idea of my logic:
> 
> The regular variant kicked our ass.  R0 was only 3, but we still had to infect 60% or so of the population in order to get over it.
> 
> ...


Useful.  Much thanks in understanding this.  We know the vaccines (even the J&J and AZ which are in the 60%-70% overall efficiency for the older variants) still help out with serious illness and death.  The thinking is the thing is so devastating because of the autoimmune response of our bodies (not necessarily because of the virus itself) because it has never seen something like this.  That's why the thinking on t-cells for cross-rona viruses is that they might help (because the body recognizes and says "oh I haven't seen this before but I've seen something close, so let's try this which worked before").  So the societal question is how much are we prepared to accept the possibility of illnesses overall in light of the death rate and serious illness rate (including long COVID) dropping but not to zero.

In any case, I think the thing you and I are both clued into but not everyone in these forums, the general public, the media, and even the health care experts are clued into is that the current issue continues well into 2022 with more minor surges to come in spring (and wow....summer/fall depending on the seasonal impacts) and then again possibly into next winter if the thing continues to mutate at the rate it has been. The question then is do we accept folks are vaccinated and that's the best we can do and open up, or do we continue to run scared.


----------



## N00B (Feb 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You need to get some good data on virus transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and cross immunity by variant.  I don’t have all that, but I can give you an idea of my logic:
> 
> The regular variant kicked our ass.  R0 was only 3, but we still had to infect 60% or so of the population in order to get over it.
> 
> ...


What variable are you currently using for asymptomatic or non-test confirmed COVID cases?  At one point assumptions ranged up to 10x, but I’m not sure what the current assumption should be.

In September models were using 9x, but I wonder where it is at now?









						Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States - Nature Communications
					

Estimating the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a population is challenging due to the limitations of testing. Here, the authors estimate that the true number of infections in the United States in mid-April was up to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.




					www.nature.com


----------



## dad4 (Feb 4, 2021)

N00B said:


> What variable are you currently using for asymptomatic or non-test confirmed COVID cases?  At one point assumptions ranged up to 10x, but I’m not sure what the current assumption should be.
> 
> In September models were using 9x, but I wonder where it is at now?
> 
> ...


Can't be 9x.  Some places are above 12%.  That gives you a 108% infection rate.

An OC study in the fall found 6x, for them..

Even 6x gives you above 100% infection rate for certain counties.

Going with 4 or 5x, depending on positivity rate.  High positivity implies higher multiplier.


----------



## N00B (Feb 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Can't be 9x.  Some places are above 12%.  That gives you a 108% infection rate.
> 
> An OC study in the fall found 6x, for them..
> 
> ...


Thanks.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 4, 2021)

J&J has submitted its EU application.  The FDA won't be meeting for 3 weeks.  I get they need time to review the material but they don't need 3 weeks.  Given we are in a race against variants, it's frankly outrageous.  Biden is not doing any better than Trump when it comes to controlling his health experts.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357490724829360131


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 4, 2021)

Saw a report today that Kaiser has said if vaccine production/distribution doesn't vastly speed up, it take them four years to vaccinate all their members. 

I'm not one of the smart ones working on this stuff but it seems to me that it would cost the US less to throw ALL of it's resources to fixing that than it's going to cost them indirectly from all the jobs being lost.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 4, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Saw a report today that Kaiser has said if vaccine production/distribution doesn't vastly speed up, it take them four years to vaccinate all their members.
> 
> I'm not one of the smart ones working on this stuff but it seems to me that it would cost the US less to throw ALL of it's resources to fixing that than it's going to cost them indirectly from all the jobs being lost.


If the FDA were to be more efficient and approve the J&J and AZ vaccines (the AZ has already been approved in the UK and IIUC Europe), it would quickly double our available supply particularly because of the need for only 1 dose in the J&J vaccine.  The problem is a lower overall efficiency, which isn't good enough for some of the most vulnerable, but should be fine for all adults less than elderly or severely disabled.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 4, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Saw a report today that Kaiser has said if vaccine production/distribution doesn't vastly speed up, it take them four years to vaccinate all their members.
> 
> I'm not one of the smart ones working on this stuff but it seems to me that it would cost the US less to throw ALL of it's resources to fixing that than it's going to cost them indirectly from all the jobs being lost.


Nationally, we are at about 5%.  8% first dose, 2% second.

Annoyingly slow, but I don't see 4 years.  NYT puts it at December, based on current rate.  Should speed up if/when they approve J&J or AZ.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Biden's team is stepping on themselves trying to corral their health experts....same as Trump.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357377759660699650


These damn people with minds of their own.


----------



## N00B (Feb 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Can't be 9x.  Some places are above 12%.  That gives you a 108% infection rate.
> 
> An OC study in the fall found 6x, for them..
> 
> ...


So as the variable for ‘undocumented’ (test positive confirmed cases) shifts based on increased testing, positivity rate, etc., is it appropriate to run a regression based on a curve over time as the variable changes in order to create a predictive model (polynominal)?  Most models or assumptions regarding heard immunity I’ve seen seem to be linear.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 4, 2021)

N00B said:


> So as the variable for ‘undocumented’ (test positive confirmed cases) shifts based on increased testing, positivity rate, etc., is it appropriate to run a regression based on a curve over time as the variable changes in order to create a predictive model (polynominal)?  Most models or assumptions regarding heard immunity I’ve seen seem to be linear.


you could do normal Runge-Kutta, but it gets wonky as you go further out in time and the projection gets further from the data.  You’d also have to use smoothed data, since you don’t want a single weird day (Christmas?) throwing a monkey wrench into your highest order term.

I’ve been using a declining exponential model for any region that is post peak.  Seems good so far.  I tweak it a bit since increasing vaccinations increase the rate of decline.

I think it will start to be overly optimistic as numbers fall.   People will start relaxing behavior, and the decline will be slower than I predict.  No idea how to model that.

At the moment, still thinking late March for orange.  Worse to the extent that we all hit the casinos and host dinner parties.


----------



## N00B (Feb 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> you could do normal Runge-Kutta, but it gets wonky as you go further out in time and the projection gets further from the data.  You’d also have to use smoothed data, since you don’t want a single weird day (Christmas?) throwing a monkey wrench into your highest order term.
> 
> I’ve been using a declining exponential model for any region that is post peak.  Seems good so far.  I tweak it a bit since increasing vaccinations increase the rate of decline.
> 
> ...


Exhibit A as to why @Grace T. *secret handshake* respects @dad4 math skills.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> you could do normal Runge-Kutta, but it gets wonky as you go further out in time and the projection gets further from the data.  You’d also have to use smoothed data, since you don’t want a single weird day (Christmas?) throwing a monkey wrench into your highest order term.
> 
> I’ve been using a declining exponential model for any region that is post peak.  Seems good so far.  I tweak it a bit since increasing vaccinations increase the rate of decline.
> 
> ...


One concern I have is that those in geographic areas with a lower "R" are getting the vaccine at a higher rate than those in areas with a higher "R". Models that assume vaccines are going into the "average" risk for a given group may end up being overly optimistic.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> One concern I have is that those in geographic areas with a lower "R" are getting the vaccine at a higher rate than those in areas with a higher "R". Models that assume vaccines are going into the "average" risk for a given group may end up being overly optimistic.


SCC started a walk in vaccine clinic in the middle of the bad zip codes.  And some places are doing giant drive through clinics.  So some hope for covering the hard hit areas.

Bad vaccine targeting does not hit the model too hard.  The vaccine term is still a very small part of overall immunity, and will be the minor player well into summer.  Also, hard hit areas are getting a smaller slice of the vaccine immunity, but they already have a larger slice of traditional immunity.  If we tie our hands as we vaccinate, it shows up as a lower vax rate and higher cases.  So the model is ok.  

The people?  Maybe not.  All the special categories and phone trees just make it harder for people in high risk areas to get vaccinated.  A simple system by age would be both fairer and more efficient.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 5, 2021)

Coming from the NY Times no less.....









						The Left’s Vaccine Problem (Published 2021)
					

And what else you need to know today.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Coming from the NY Times no less.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I was reading that this morning. All the good intentions in the world can't aren't greater than shots in the arm.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I was reading that this morning. All the good intentions in the world can't aren't greater than shots in the arm.


Yeah. particularly since the data seems to show we are in a race against a 3rd wave.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah. particularly since the data seems to show we are in a race against a 3rd wave.


How f'ed up do values have to be that in the middle of a pandemic someone thinks it's a better idea to throw out vaccines than give it to someone that isn't vaccinated?


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 5, 2021)

I was talking to a physician friend last night, he's actually in New York City, So he has seen a lot!

Anyway, he somewhat echoed the statement that this thing is never going away. That the only way to get it to where we can function on a regular level is with the vaccine- Then it's going to be looked at as the flu is looked at. He said in his opinion, we are always going to be looking over our shoulder with all these variants until the vaccine is widespread.

If I remember correctly, I think Grace was one of the ones saying this a few months ago? Pardon me if my memory is fuzzy.

Something I forgot to add: he said he's no more concerned about the UK variant than he is any other variant- meaning, they are all trouble for us.


----------



## espola (Feb 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah. particularly since the data seems to show we are in a race against a 3rd wave.


On a linear scale, it looks like we have already had 5 waves, but the early ones get swamped out by the size of the later ones on a logarithmic scale.









						Covid Trends
					

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.




					aatishb.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 5, 2021)

As much of a fringe group as the COVID deniers, it's interesting that some people still believe we can get to zero COVID.  What's more troubling is that there may be a coming clash of certain governments (the PRC, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea) that want to eliminate COVID v. other governments that just accept we can't.









						Inside the Zero Covid campaign
					

The urge to eliminate the virus is understandable — but at what cost?




					unherd.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 5, 2021)

Insane: Senate Democrats' Indefensible Betrayal of Science and Students
					

Bowing to Union Masters.




					townhall.com


----------



## espola (Feb 5, 2021)

How about that -- a mask Karen actually named Karen --


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 5, 2021)

espola said:


> How about that -- a mask Karen actually named Karen --


Hope it was worth it to her. A few minutes wearing a mask seems a small price to pay for hassle free shopping.


----------



## espola (Feb 5, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Hope it was worth it to her. A few minutes wearing a mask seems a small price to pay for hassle free shopping.


In a different situation -- such as being pulled over while driving -- I fear her unusual manner of speech ("show me the law - the FEDERAL law") might lead to a roadside sobriety test.


----------



## crush (Feb 6, 2021)

*Preach it bro!!!!*


----------



## crush (Feb 6, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Feb 6, 2021)

A bit over the top position, but the one thing I did find interesting is the lockdowns really are the classic trolley problem.  It's a real good observation.  The author clearly believes the answer to the trolley problem is that government should never pull the switch, but .doesn't do a great job of explaining why not (other than to argue pulling the switch results in equal or greater harm)









						Bystander at the Switch: The Moral Case Against COVID Lockdowns
					

"Bystander at the Switch" is a moral riddle. COVID lockdowns are that dilemma. And universal human rights were invented to stop us pulling the switch.




					www.juliusruechel.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A bit over the top position, but the one thing I did find interesting is the lockdowns really are the classic trolley problem.  It's a real good observation.  The author clearly believes the answer to the trolley problem is that government should never pull the switch, but .doesn't do a great job of explaining why not (other than to argue pulling the switch results in equal or greater harm)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> View attachment 10058


A nice quote for our times.

I'd like to offer the following quote by C.S. Lewis: -

"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience."


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 6, 2021)

espola said:


> In a different situation -- such as being pulled over while driving -- I fear her unusual manner of speech ("show me the law - the FEDERAL law") might lead to a roadside sobriety test.


In that case if she was a woman of color the chances of that encounter ending fatally would have gone up exponentially.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah. particularly since the data seems to show we are in a race against a 3rd wave.


The irony of the quote from Cuomo saying that all of the lock downs and quarantines in his state will be worth it even if it saves “just one life.” and then his state throws away vaccines. I guess his nursing home policy didn't do enough "good" for the state.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 7, 2021)

Interesting post about the economy in CO that also compares it to some other states. I picked out a few paragraphs that compare CO to other states. The full story follows.

WalletHub, a personal finance website, studied 14 measures to determine how states compared in their restrictions to combat the novel coronavirus. The laxest states include Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Iowa, while California, Massachusetts and Virginia are among the strictest. In the fourth quarter, Colorado ranked 46th when it came to having the fewest restrictions, although in January the move from Level Red to Level Orange in the largest counties had moved it to the 38th spot.

The chief argument for having stricter rules is to reduce infection rates, keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed and save lives. As an added benefit, playing it safer was supposed to set the stage for a stronger economic rebound once the pandemic passed.

So far that doesn’t seem to be playing out. Restriction-light South Dakota now has a lower unemployment rate, 3%, than it did before the pandemic started, but it also is wrestling with higher COVID-19 case and death rates than Colorado.

Nor is it a regional issue. Utah and Idaho have regained all the jobs lost during the pandemic and even grown employment, while Colorado faces a deficit of about 150,000 nonfarm jobs lost last year. But Gedney notes Colorado has the eighth-highest concentration of in-person dining establishments, while Utah is near the bottom.

“The restrictions were prudent, and I’m not arguing that we shouldn’t have had them. But I am not convinced we are primed for a better recovery,” said Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the Business Research Division at the University of Colorado’s Leeds School of Business. “The lost output is something you never recoup.”

---
--- Full story
---

Restrictions saved lives, but job losses weigh down recovery

By Aldo Svaldi The Denver Post

With COVID-19 cases rising rapidly, indoor dining going away and federal support for small businesses stalled in Congress, Brandon Bortles made an excruciating decision in November — he closed his Abejas and Nosu Ramen restaurants in Golden and directed about 30 of his remaining workers to apply for state unemployment benefits.

“My capital was so low I couldn’t float them. Our hand was forced,” said Bortles, who doesn’t know when he will reopen, despite an easing of restrictions on indoor dining last month.

His layoffs were part of a much larger 24,300 jobs lost at restaurants and bars across the state in December, according to senior state labor economist Ryan Gedney. Losses in food service employment, combined with a surge in people rejoining the labor force, helped push up Colorado’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 6.4% in November to 8.4% in December.

As 2020 came to an end, Colorado had 269,200 people without a job and actively looking for one, a higher total for the state than at any month during the Great Recession, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It also had the nation’s fourth-highest unemployment rate after Hawaii, California and Nevada. Entering the pandemic, Colorado had the fifth-lowest unemployment rate at 2.5%.

Officials in every state have engaged in a grim calculus during the pandemic — balancing the need to protect human life against preserving livelihoods. Colorado’s calculation was effective in lowering case counts, but it also may have derailed one of the most robust labor markets in the nation.

“It appears the on-again, off-again efforts to find a balance between the economy and the number of COVID-19 cases killed the economy from an employment perspective,” said Gary Horvath, an economist based in Broomfield.

WalletHub, a personal finance website, studied 14 measures to determine how states compared in their restrictions to combat the novel coronavirus. The laxest states include Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Iowa, while California, Massachusetts and Virginia are among the strictest. In the fourth quarter, Colorado ranked 46th when it came to having the fewest restrictions, although in January the move from Level Red to Level Orange in the largest counties had moved it to the 38th spot.

More so than COVID-19 case rates or the concentration of jobs in tourism and other hard-hit industries, the severity of the restrictions that state and local governments put in place appears to have the strongest correlation to how a state’s economy performed last year.

“The fact that (Colorado) has a lot of restrictions in place leads to it having the fifth-lowest COVID19 death rate in the country. On the flip side, the large number of restrictions also creates higher unemployment,” said Jill Gonzalez, an analyst with WalletHub.

Conor Cahill, a spokesman for Gov. Jared Polis, said the state rolled out several programs to help the economy, among them launching a $24 million relief fund, providing aid and tax breaks to restaurants and other small businesses, and distributing $357 checks to 435,000 unemployed workers in the state.

“The Polis administration has sought an aggressive balanced approach to saving lives while allowing for the maximum amount of economic and social activity. Gov. Polis and legislative leadership stepped up to the plate when Congress faltered,” he said.

The chief argument for having stricter rules is to reduce infection rates, keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed and save lives. As an added benefit, playing it safer was supposed to set the stage for a stronger economic rebound once the pandemic passed.

So far that doesn’t seem to be playing out. Restriction-light South Dakota now has a lower unemployment rate, 3%, than it did before the pandemic started, but it also is wrestling with higher COVID-19 case and death rates than Colorado.

Nor is it a regional issue. Utah and Idaho have regained all the jobs lost during the pandemic and even grown employment, while Colorado faces a deficit of about 150,000 nonfarm jobs lost last year. But Gedney notes Colorado has the eighth-highest concentration of in-person dining establishments, while Utah is near the bottom.

“The restrictions were prudent, and I’m not arguing that we shouldn’t have had them. But I am not convinced we are primed for a better recovery,” said Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the Business Research Division at the University of Colorado’s Leeds School of Business. “The lost output is something you never recoup.”


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 7, 2021)

*** Part II of the story (It was too big for one post and is behind a paywall)

Optimistic vs. pessimistic approach

For reasons she still doesn’t understand, Sonia Riggs, president and CEO of the Colorado Restaurant Association, said Colorado officials chose to take a harder line against bars and restaurants than other states did.

They did so without presenting studies to show restaurants were a significant contributor to the spread of COVID-19 cases, she said. For example, capacity was capped at 50, even if a dining space was large enough to handle many more using the 6-foot distancing recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Based on the premise that the more people drink, the more likely they are to get sloppy about safeguards, the cutoff for serving alcoholic drinks was moved earlier. But Riggs said pushing up last call didn’t make sense in restaurants where patrons were seated and not moving around.

A heavy blow came when indoor dining was cut off as temperatures were moving lower in late November. And although restaurants welcome being allowed to go to 25% capacity last month or 50% in the case of Denver, which moved to Level Yellow on Saturday, that won’t be enough to get them into the black, she said.

“If we don’t start seeing capacity increase change dramatically over the next few months, we will see more restaurants closing,” Riggs said. “True recovery won’t begin for this industry until dining capacity is at 100%.”

As the state was doing its calculations in the face of rapidly rising COVID-19 caseloads, restaurateurs such as Ryan Fletter responded with their own math. He made the difficult choice in November to close his youngest restaurant, Chow Morso, so his more established one, Barolo Grill, could have a better chance of surviving.

“When the governor closed indoor dining rooms before the holidays, all restaurants went into a tailspin,” he said.

For Chow Morso, the lunch crowd of downtown office workers had vanished in the early days of the pandemic, along with the tourists and evening crowds attending events. Civil unrest and demonstrations in the summer were followed by concerns about election turmoil in the fall, putting a damper on dinner traffic, Fletter said.

Restaurateurs, with their first round of Paycheck Protection Program money long spent, were hopeful that Congress would pass another round. But those hopes vanished in partisan bickering and forced some difficult choices, Fletter said.

Barolo Grill, around for 27 years, had strong support from the surrounding Cherry Creek neighborhood and was the obvious choice to keep going. But closing Chow Morso cost 30 jobs.

Data from Zenreach shows a more severe decline in visits to restaurants and retailers in Colorado than elsewhere late last year. The San Francisco-based company provides software that public venues can use to measure foot traffic based on cellphone pings made to the local Wi-Fi system.

Early in the pandemic, Colorado suffered a somewhat sharper decline in foot traffic but by summer rebounded to half of normal levels. Through November, Colorado tracked with U.S. averages. In December, traffic dropped to just less than 30% of prepandemic levels, while other hard-hit states dropped to under 40%.

“It was one of the more dramatic declines,” John Kelly, CEO of Zenreach, said of what happened in Colorado.

Kelly notes that states that took an “optimistic” approach when it came to fighting the novel coronavirus never saw their foot traffic dip below 50% after the initial wave of lockdowns. States in the “pessimistic” camp have experienced much lower consumer activity in public spaces.

Colorado consumer spending also has trended lower than the national averages, Silverstein said. For health services, spending fell 18.8% in the state vs. 9.5% nationally. Restaurant and hotel spending was down 44.3% in Colorado compared with a 28.7% decline nationally.

Can Colorado catch up?

The grim leisure and hospitality numbers in Colorado’s December employment report masked some good news. Manufacturing employment was up by 2,000 for the year, and the state ranked third for its growth in manufacturing jobs, an unusual area of strength, Lewandowski said.

Employment in professional and business services, a source of high-skilled jobs paying some of the highest wages in the state, was up by 8,700 jobs. And even trade, transportation and utilities, which includes the hard-hit retail sector, has regained in terms of job counts, while the financial activities sector is almost there.

For the sectors in the top tier in terms of average weekly wages, employment is almost fully recovered, Patty Silverstein, president of Development Research Partners, told an online audience attending the Vectra Bank of Colorado’s Economic Forecast on Thursday.

Those households are saving money at a high rate and more likely to enjoy the robust gains in the housing and stock markets. They will represent a tremendous amount of pent-up demand once the economy reopens and people are more comfortable traveling, attending shows and dining out, she said.

The flipside of the “K shaped” recovery is that the workers in the lowest-paying tier of industries, who typically lack the savings and other resources to weather a recession, have suffered the most economically. They are more likely to be women, minorities and younger workers. They are also more likely to be renters, meaning they haven’t enjoyed the uptick in personal wealth that strong home price appreciation provided last year in Colorado.

As of December, employment in leisure and hospitality was only 73.6% recovered in December. One out of four jobs from before the pandemic is still missing, bolstering the argument that the sector needs special attention this year.

Government employment is 93.3% recovered and down by 30,800 jobs, making it the secondbiggest contributor to job losses in Colorado. Lewandowski said Colorado has been much more diligent than other states in tracking student workers, which could be boosting the counts there.

Mining, which includes oil and gas, is about 87% recovered, with future gains dependent on commodity prices and the direction of regulatory limits. Construction, information, and education and health services are about 95% to 96% recovered.

Cahill also noted that the increase in the unemployment rate was influenced heavily by 42,400 people joining the labor force in December, which outweighed the drop of 20,300 in employment. jobs lost.

“The growth in the labor force is a positive sign for Colorado’s economy going forward, as it shows increased worker confidence in the prospects for finding employment,” he said.

The state also continues to see stronger population growth than most other states, ranking 12th, but the growth is some of the most muted since the oil and gas bust of the early 1980s. And having one of the highest unemployment rates of any state could deter young adults from moving here if it is sustained.

Gedney said that Colorado has run in the middle of the pack for unemployment when coming out of the last two recessions. And if the state’s unemployment rate is averaged across all of 2020, it is 7.1%, which ranks 24th among states.

Although it is possible Colorado could recoup its lost jobs later this year, Silverstein doesn’t think Colorado will regain prepandemic levels of employment until 2022. That means Colorado’s economy could be playing catchup for a while.


----------



## crush (Feb 7, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> *** Part II of the story (It was too big for one post and is behind a paywall)
> 
> Optimistic vs. pessimistic approach
> 
> ...


My buddy ((pal or old friend)) moved to Highlands Ranch about 20 years ago.  I told him he was nuts to leave California.  He told yesterday he was right and I was wrong.  I told him because he's so conservative, judgmental towards non-believers and into guns, he made the right move for his family.  He told me he just paid off his house and is just killing it.  He loves to shovel snow every morning, he hated the ocean ((afraid of sharks)) and he loves to ski.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> In that case if she was a woman of color the chances of that encounter ending fatally would have gone up exponentially.


Only if she was stupid enough to resist and fight like the rest of them did.  That’s the part you always miss, isn’t it?


----------



## NorCalDad (Feb 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> There are only two reasons that people don't want kids back in school full-time, 1) unfounded fear, or 2) prisoner of a far left narrative.


I actually don't think it's the far left narrative. More like corporate liberal narrative.  It's not like AOC and Sanders are driving these bad policies.


----------



## watfly (Feb 7, 2021)

NorCalDad said:


> I actually don't think it's the far left narrative. More like corporate liberal narrative.  It's not like AOC and Sanders are driving these bad policies.


Yeah, that's probably more accurate.  AOC is too busy trying to get an Emmy like Cuomo.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 7, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> Only if she was stupid enough to resist and fight like the rest of them did.  That’s the part you always miss, isn’t it?


Why should noncompliance be a death sentence? I had my fun avoiding law enforcement as a young skate rat I never got shot. And how many times have you read a post of where I missed “That part”.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> Yeah, that's probably more accurate.  AOC is too busy trying to get an Emmy like Cuomo.


The media from the right spends far more time obsessing on “AOC” et al. They assign her far more power than she actually wields. Much like “MTG”.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> Yeah, that's probably more accurate.  AOC is too busy trying to get an Emmy like Cuomo.


Can'y put my finger on why she annoys me, but she does. 

I get that the whole "squad" thing they have going on is new and refreshing- and great to see women in these positions. 

However, I feel like at times her whole squad lacks professionalism. I can't think of any other job where you could get away with saying some of the things that whole clique has said. 

And befor you-know-who comes on whining about Trump and his professionalism, (or lack thereof,) I have never said I thought the right was full of utmost professionals either, so save your breath.

Her and MTG should just hang out and be sensationalists together.


----------



## watfly (Feb 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The media from the right spends far more time obsessing on “AOC” et al. They assign her far more power than she actually wields. Much like “MTG”.


Generally I would agree with you, but in the most recent incident it was the MSM that carried he whole "I going to die video" repeatedly from start to finish.  Both parties don't need to be defined by their loons but crazy sells.


----------



## NorCalDad (Feb 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> Generally I would agree with you, but in the most recent incident it was the MSM that carried he whole "I going to die video" repeatedly from start to finish.  Both parties don't need to be defined by their loons but crazy sells.


FWIW...a lot of folks on the far left haven't been stoked about that whole thing. They need to keep their eye on the prize....and that's helping people.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 7, 2021)

Biden’s increasingly showing why a full lockdown wouldn’t have been possible even under a d admin. One of the features of australia New Zealand South Korea and Taiwan is they adopted very strict border controls...even citizens returning from necessary travel were put in hotels and camps to quarantine.   Biden though has lifted many of the restrictions on the southern border and they are having to release new migrants from detention due to covid outbreaks there (there’s an article in the New York Times).   Politically I’m kinda miffed the border is reopen before schools are fully opened. With looser asylum Reg’s now and a change in migrant policies for minors in Mexico I expect this problem to get worse for him in the coming weeks as more migrants are encouraged to take advantage of the friendlier rules and flee their covid devastated nations


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 7, 2021)

Bad news is the south african variant seems to have already gotten away at least from the AZ vaccine...the vaccines "offers only limited protection against the south african variant" and its efficacy is "significantly reduced".  Good news is that it still looks like it helps prevent death.  It's increasingly looking like this thing is never going to go away.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 8, 2021)

watfly said:


> Generally I would agree with you, but in the most recent incident it was the MSM that carried he whole "I going to die video" repeatedly from start to finish.  Both parties don't need to be defined by their loons but crazy sells.


The whole “kill elected officials”, “stop the steal”, “burn down democracy” thing is so hip and current on the right, and far beyond any “squad” activities, so must be covered. The new trump counter culture cult is interesting to  the rest of us. Intriguing how a group can claim complete loyalty to one man at the detriment of the country, democracy and the majority of Americans, yet claim the exclusive on patriotism at the same time.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Why should noncompliance be a death sentence? I had my fun avoiding law enforcement as a young skate rat I never got shot. And how many times have you read a post of where I missed “That part”.


It results in a death sentence when you make it one.  Don’t compare these times to your childhood.  Noncompliance goes on everyday and it doesn’t result in death.  Thousands of black people go to jail, everyday, without death or even violence.

Just cut the “If he/she was black” bullshit.  Because the reality is, if she was black, she’d be 90% more likely to be killed by a black man, while doing nothing wrong, than a cop while resisting arrest.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The media from the right spends far more time obsessing on “AOC” et al. They assign her far more power than she actually wields. Much like “MTG”.


The cocktail waitress, who speaks like a 9-year old, gets attention because she craves it.  And the right msm media lets her hang herself the same way the left msm refuses to use a decent picture of Trump.

More of your libtard hypocrisy.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 8, 2021)

China's new test, being required in some cases.  Remember it was on China's advice experience that we threw out the playbook on NPIs and adopted lockdowns.









						China Is Now Requiring COVID-19 Tests Taken by Anal Swab
					

The upside is it’s reportedly more accurate. The downside is the obvious.




					slate.com


----------



## espola (Feb 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> China's new test, being required in some cases.  Remember it was on China's advice experience that we threw out the playbook on NPIs and adopted lockdowns.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The article quotes the WP that "a stool sample should be taken from patients, and if that is not possible, to do an anal swab".


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 8, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> The cocktail waitress, who speaks like a 9-year old, gets attention because she craves it.  And the right msm media lets her hang herself the same way the left msm refuses to use a decent picture of Trump.
> 
> More of your libtard hypocrisy.


“speaks like a 9 year old, gets attention because she craves it”? You see those as negatives yet you praise Trump? Lol! Hypocrite!


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “speaks like a 9 year old, gets attention because she craves it”? You see those as negatives yet you praise Trump? Lol! Hypocrite!


I praised many of his actions and still do.  You clowns focus on his hair and skin color.

In other words, lousy attempt at a deflection.


----------



## espola (Feb 8, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> I praised many of his actions and still do.  You clowns focus on his hair and skin color.
> 
> In other words, lousy attempt at a deflection.


I don't know who "you clowns" are, but lately it seems to me that there has been a lot of discussion on his treason.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 8, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> I praised many of his actions and still do.  You clowns focus on his hair and skin color.
> 
> In other words, lousy attempt at a deflection.


Another hilarious post! You can’t seem to help yourself! Lol!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 8, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't know who "you clowns" are, but lately it seems to me that there has been a lot of discussion on his treason.


Exactly!


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 8, 2021)

You libtards have been calling him “treasonous” for 4-years.

Nobody takes you butthurt losers seriously.


----------



## espola (Feb 8, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> You libtards have been calling him “treasonous” for 4-years.
> 
> Nobody takes you butthurt losers seriously.


Could you clarify who the "butthurt losers" are here?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 8, 2021)

espola said:


> Could you clarify who the "butthurt losers" are here?


Broad strokes and straw men. trumpist are a bit on edge, like always.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 9, 2021)

Is there a point where people say enough is enough?

Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said during an interview on Sunday that the Biden administration is in active conversations with the CDC about whether it will require American citizens to have a negative coronavirus test before they are allowed to fly to another U.S. state.
-
“But here’s the thing, the safer we can make air travel in *terms of perception* as well as reality, the more people are going to be ready to get back in the air.”
- 
Buttigieg said that he wanted to start paying more attention to “bikes, scooters, wheelchairs” because “roads aren’t only for vehicles.”









						Buttigieg: We’re In ‘Active Conversation’ With CDC About Requiring COVID Test Before Domestic Flights | The Daily Wire
					






					www.dailywire.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Is there a point where people say enough is enough?
> 
> Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said during an interview on Sunday that the Biden administration is in active conversations with the CDC about whether it will require American citizens to have a negative coronavirus test before they are allowed to fly to another U.S. state.
> -
> ...


And Biden’s press sec today what he means by having “schools open in the first 100 days”.   Apparently it’s 50% of schools open for “in person instruction” 1 day a week.  She declined to answer whether in person meant teacher remote and students in the classroom

I’ve got to say at this point I find the Biden covid response as underwhelming as I found the trump admins, if not yet more so.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Is there a point where people say enough is enough?
> 
> Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said during an interview on Sunday that the Biden administration is in active conversations with the CDC about whether it will require American citizens to have a negative coronavirus test before they are allowed to fly to another U.S. state.
> -
> ...


It’s interesting too the thinking seems to be moving away from requiring proof of vaccination.  Maybe an implicit acknowledgement that the vaccines aren’t going to be able to fend off cases (because in part the new variants, lack of kids vaccines and the low efficiency of some vaccines).  The emergency will be over in about a month and a half when the over 65s are vaccinated. This is now a fight between those who want to keep us 100% safe at any cost and those that want to take their lives back. When will the panic end?


----------



## happy9 (Feb 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Is there a point where people say enough is enough?
> 
> Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said during an interview on Sunday that the Biden administration is in active conversations with the CDC about whether it will require American citizens to have a negative coronavirus test before they are allowed to fly to another U.S. state.
> -
> ...


Honestly, it's like watching an actor playing a doctor on TV.  They mostly know WHAT to say but you can definitely tell they are not real doctors.  Bikes, Scooters, and Wheelchairs?  Sounds like shovel ready jobs for all -- more sidewalks and bike paths??  It's sadly amusing.  I mean really..


----------



## espola (Feb 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s interesting too the thinking seems to be moving away from requiring proof of vaccination.  Maybe an implicit acknowledgement that the vaccines aren’t going to be able to fend off cases (because in part the new variants, lack of kids vaccines and the low efficiency of some vaccines).  The emergency will be over in about a month and a half when the over 65s are vaccinated. This is now a fight between those who want to keep us 100% safe at any cost and those that want to take their lives back. When will the panic end?


"The emergency will be over in about a month and a half when the over 65s are vaccinated."  What do you mean by "emergency" there?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> And Biden’s press sec today what he means by having “schools open in the first 100 days”.   Apparently it’s 50% of schools open for “in person instruction” 1 day a week.  She declined to answer whether in person meant teacher remote and students in the classroom
> 
> I’ve got to say at this point I find the Biden covid response as underwhelming as I found the trump admins, if not yet more so.


What's even funnier is that already 64% of US schools are either fully open, limited hybrid, or limited hybrid with teachers not present.  So Biden could declare victory today.  What a joke.  Just like the 1 million vaccines per day....set the bar really low so you can declare victory.





__





						Burbio School and Community Events Data Platform
					






					info.burbio.com


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Could you clarify who the "butthurt losers" are here?


For all your profiles or just this one, butthurt libtard?


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Is there a point where people say enough is enough?
> 
> Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said during an interview on Sunday that the Biden administration is in active conversations with the CDC about whether it will require American citizens to have a negative coronavirus test before they are allowed to fly to another U.S. state.
> -
> ...


I can’t think of anyone more qualified to lead the transportation than the token appointee with no experience in transportation.

There’s a “Hershey Highway” joke in there but I don’t want to offend our favorite acronym racist.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Is there a point where people say enough is enough?
> 
> Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said during an interview on Sunday that the Biden administration is in active conversations with the CDC about whether it will require American citizens to have a negative coronavirus test before they are allowed to fly to another U.S. state.
> -
> ...


You Q people believe the craziest things.


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> And Biden’s press sec today what he means by having “schools open in the first 100 days”.   Apparently it’s 50% of schools open for “in person instruction” 1 day a week.  She declined to answer whether in person meant teacher remote and students in the classroom
> 
> I’ve got to say at this point I find the Biden covid response as underwhelming as I found the trump admins, if not yet more so.


In fairness to Slow Joe, despite spending 6 months telling us Trump wasn’t doing enough, he was honest enough to admit, the minute he took office, “it’s going to get much worse” and he’s doing what he promised.


----------



## espola (Feb 9, 2021)

Scott m Shurson said:


> For all your profiles or just this one, butthurt libtard?


When the internet was just a glimmer in Al Gore's eye I tried to maintain multiple personalities on the same Usenet channel.  It's too much effort for no real gain.

And you didn't answer the question.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 9, 2021)

They really do want to lock us down for ever.  Talking now no return to normal until next winter, but by then we'll have new variants which will delay things further.  Choice is up to people to reclaim their lives now or deal with years and years of restrictions....









						Biden Team Fears: No COVID Herd Immunity Until Thanksgiving
					

Dr. Fauci is still “cautiously optimistic” that life can return to normal by the beginning of the fall. But others worry that we may not get there until the early winter.




					www.thedailybeast.com


----------



## Scott m Shurson (Feb 9, 2021)

espola said:


> When the internet was just a glimmer in Al Gore's eye I tried to maintain multiple personalities on the same Usenet channel.  It's too much effort for no real gain.
> 
> And you didn't answer the question.


I answered it twice for you.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 9, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You Q people believe the craziest things.


We believe certain things? Nothing q here by the way. I am just posting what the guy is on record saying amigo.


----------



## watfly (Feb 9, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You Q people believe the craziest things.


Where does one go to find Qanon talking points?  All I can find is media articles that claim that Qanon believes there is a group of pedophile Democrats that are controlling the deep state.  I can't find any source information from the organization itself, or what its other beliefs may be.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Where does one go to find Qanon talking points?  All I can find is media articles that claim that Qanon believes there is a group of pedophile Democrats that are controlling the deep state.  I can't find any source information from the organization itself, or what its other beliefs may be.


I wish that were the case . . .


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> We believe certain things? Nothing q here by the way. I am just posting what the guy is on record saying amigo.


That’s the problem, you can’t see the difference between spin and reality, Qboy.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Where does one go to find Qanon talking points?  All I can find is media articles that claim that Qanon believes there is a group of pedophile Democrats that are controlling the deep state.  I can't find any source information from the organization itself, or what its other beliefs may be.


You’ll never find that which aren’t looking for, “organization”? Lol!


----------



## espola (Feb 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You’ll never find that which aren’t looking for, “organization”? Lol!


Many have been taken down --









						Here are 2,752 Russian Twitter accounts that trolled you
					

From @10_gop to @ZzzacharyZzz.




					www.vox.com


----------



## watfly (Feb 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I wish that were the case . . .


Well you seem to be very knowledgeable about what Qanon believes.  What Qanon sources did you go to to gain that knowledge?


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Well you seem to be very knowledgeable about what Qanon believes.  What Qanon sources did you go to to gain that knowledge?


I have been wondering the same thing for some time. He seems to have an "in" so to speak. Where does he get this valuable info. 

By the way there was just some polling on Qanon recently. For some "strange" reason D's are much more aware of it vs R's. Funny how that works.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 10, 2021)

CDC advising to double mask.  Double mask up everyone, even after you are vaccinated, since masking worked so well the first time.  Gotta save grandma!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359552457769181188


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 10, 2021)

And then there's this gem for all those who say masks have no cost so just shut up and mask up









						New Study Finds Masks Hurt Schoolchildren Physically, Psychologically, and Behaviorally - Montana Daily Gazette
					

A new study, involving over 25,000 school-aged children, shows that masks are harming schoolchildren physically, psychologically, and behaviorally, revealing 24 distinct health issues associated with wearing masks. The health issues and impairments observed in this study were found to affect 68%...




					montanadailygazette.com


----------



## espola (Feb 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> CDC advising to double mask.  Double mask up everyone, even after you are vaccinated, since masking worked so well the first time.  Gotta save grandma!
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359552457769181188


The CDC link doesn't work.  Do you have a clean one?

Is Montana Daily Gazette another of those humor/satire sites?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 10, 2021)

espola said:


> The CDC link doesn't work.  Do you have a clean one?
> 
> Is Montana Daily Gazette another of those humor/satire sites?


See if it's in here somewhere.  NBC usually good about these things









						CDC updates: Double masking and best mask guidelines
					

New CDC report shows double masking can help block more than 90 percent of viral particles. We asked medical experts about the best ways to double mask.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 10, 2021)

WH goal. Have 50% of school open by April 30.

They further explain that means at least 1 day a week in person. That is part of as they said their "bold and ambitious plan". 

Whew. High bar there right? Instead of complaining we all should celebrate the crumbs our "leaders" bestow upon us.

Does private industry survive setting bold and ambitious goals like that? 

Very happy my kids are not in public school right now. They have been in class FULL TIME since the end of Aug.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> WH goal. Have 50% of school open by April 30.
> 
> They further explain that means at least 1 day a week in person. That is part of as they said their "bold and ambitious plan".
> 
> ...


They already met their goal.  Heckava job that Biden is doing!


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 10, 2021)

Not good....would be a major escalation between the antilockdowners and the prolockdowners.  Question is where does that middle 1/3 lie.  If they try a full travel ban, this is one of the things which makes this thing really ugly really quickly.  If this also happens, look for the current emergency to not end until 2022 without a full scale public outcry....lots of variants on the way, many more to come.



			https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article249154715.html


----------



## espola (Feb 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Not good....would be a major escalation between the antilockdowners and the prolockdowners.  Question is where does that middle 1/3 lie.  If they try a full travel ban, this is one of the things which makes this thing really ugly really quickly.  If this also happens, look for the current emergency to not end until 2022 without a full scale public outcry....lots of variants on the way, many more to come.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article249154715.html


Escalation of what?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Feb 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Escalation of what?


Fascism!  Silly.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Escalation of what?


Let me help you here.

GraceT said: Not good....would be a major escalation between the *antilockdowners and the prolockdowners. *

Any idea of what the issue might be espola? Or is this too difficult to divine for you?


----------



## espola (Feb 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Let me help you here.
> 
> GraceT said: Not good....would be a major escalation between the *antilockdowners and the prolockdowners. *
> 
> Any idea of what the issue might be espola? Or is this too difficult to divine for you?


Escalation of what?


----------



## happy9 (Feb 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I wish that were the case . . .


So maybe pedophile dems are making up these other "Q" talking points, playing a little bit of misdirection.  Maybe it's possible that there is a secret ring of demophiles , operating out of Epstein Island intent on taking power.  Maybe "Q" is a russian asset?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Feb 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Escalation of what?


Your fascism.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Well you seem to be very knowledgeable about what Qanon believes.  What Qanon sources did you go to to gain that knowledge?


Jessica, Joe, Myke, Paul, Kurt, Darlene, Andy, David and few other Q-magas I know that keep telling me.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way there was just some polling on Qanon recently. For some "strange" reason D's are much more aware of it vs R's. Funny how that works.


Gee I wonder why that is? Seems Q-magas are unaware of most all of trumps missteps, mistakes and misfortunes. It’s always sunny on state tv!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Let me help you here.
> 
> GraceT said: Not good....would be a major escalation between the *antilockdowners and the prolockdowners. *
> 
> Any idea of what the issue might be espola? Or is this too difficult to divine for you?


And? Another civil war? Storming more state capitals? More insurrection?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> And? Another civil war? Storming more state capitals? More insurrection?


who knows how far it goes. You don’t think Florida’s just going to roll over right?  De Santis right now is the darling of the rs and in a good position for 2024. He’s not just going to roll over and take it. At a minimum this goes to the Supreme Court. Biden knows all this so who know how far he takes it too.


----------



## espola (Feb 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> who knows how far it goes. You don’t think Florida’s just going to roll over right?  De Santis right now is the darling of the rs and in a good position for 2024. He’s not just going to roll over and take it. At a minimum this goes to the Supreme Court. Biden knows all this so who know how far he takes it too.


You seem to be saying that he will not miss any opportunity to appeal to t voters by acting stupid at every opportunity.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 10, 2021)

espola said:


> You seem to be saying that he will not miss any opportunity to appeal to t voters by acting stupid at every opportunity.


The selection of Florida has as much to do with targeting Florida as it does the UK variant.  The UK variant is already out and about in other states including SoCal so it's not like you'd be trapping anything in there.  Doing this, though, gives the Ds the chance to knee cap DeSantis and it gives the lockdowners a chance at revenge against Florida for being open, a good economy, and masks.  The argument will be over how much of it is the former v. the latter.  Because if there's even some of the latter, it won't pass the rational basis test in the courts.


----------



## espola (Feb 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The selection of Florida has as much to do with targeting Florida as it does the UK variant.  The UK variant is already out and about in other states including SoCal so it's not like you'd be trapping anything in there.  Doing this, though, gives the Ds the chance to knee cap DeSantis and it gives the lockdowners a chance at revenge against Florida for being open, a good economy, and masks.  The argument will be over how much of it is the former v. the latter.  Because if there's even some of the latter, it won't pass the rational basis test in the courts.


Many states are mentioned, including California.  I suspect the reason the article focuses so heavily on Florida is that it is a Miami newspaper website.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Many states are mentioned, including California.  I suspect the reason the article focuses so heavily on Florida is that it is a Miami newspaper website.


You could very well be right about that but the larger the the net, the greater the outrage, the more pushback the admin will receive including from the airlines and travel industry


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 10, 2021)

What did I just read? Are we questioning whether Qanon believes the pedophilia thing or whether or not they exist at all? 

You can find videos supporting both on Twitter if anyone cares. Didn't we see some of the people that stormed the Capitol on video saying that?


----------



## happy9 (Feb 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Gee I wonder why that is? Seems Q-magas are unaware of most all of trumps missteps, mistakes and misfortunes.* It’s always sunny on state tv!*


Oh the Irony...


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 11, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Oh the Irony...


There is a difference between covering missteps yet putting a positive light on them and simply ignoring them while still discussing Hillary to appease the base viewers . . . or in the new OAN/Newsmax style shock journalism reality be damned, completely this time. The right keeps getting further and further disconnected from the rest of the world.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 11, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> And? Another civil war? Storming more state capitals? More insurrection?


Like surrounding Federal buildings, hurling Molotov Cocktails at it for several days (if not weeks)?  Democrats set the table all summer of 2020 and Trump (being as immature as he is) stepped up to match the rhetoric and deserves what he gets.  

Both sides need to stop playing innocent while pointing at the other.


----------



## crush (Feb 11, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Like surrounding Federal buildings, hurling Molotov Cocktails at it for several days (if not weeks)?  Democrats set the table all summer of 2020 and Trump (being as immature as he is) stepped up to match the rhetoric and deserves what he gets.
> 
> Both sides need to stop playing innocent while pointing at the other.


That's a great way to play this game.  Both sides are guilty.  Now what?  Actually, if we stay on topic and talk soccer bro, this all reminds me of the sh*t in socal club soccer the last four years.  Talk about no one is right when the Toxic War of 2016 was started right here in socal: ECNL vs GDA was started by a few Generals who control soccer in socal.  The kids and parents lost out, just like the Americans are getting hosed again by it's leaders.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 11, 2021)

crush said:


> That's a great way to play this game.  Both sides are guilty.  Now what?  Actually, if we stay on topic and talk soccer bro, this all reminds me of the sh*t in socal club soccer the last four years.  Talk about no one is right when the Toxic War of 2016 was started right here in socal: ECNL vs GDA was started by a few Generals who control soccer in socal.  The kids and parents lost out, just like the Americans are getting hosed again by it's leaders.


Yawn....you don realize this is the “Bad News” thread in Off Topic (here because it doesn’t pertain to soccer), right?


----------



## crush (Feb 11, 2021)




----------



## happy9 (Feb 11, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> There is a difference between covering missteps yet putting a positive light on them and simply ignoring them while still discussing Hillary to appease the base viewers . . . or in the new OAN/Newsmax style shock journalism reality be damned, completely this time. The right keeps getting further and further disconnected from the rest of the world.


and the left.


----------



## crush (Feb 11, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Yawn....you don realize this is the “Bad News” thread in Off Topic (here because it doesn’t pertain to soccer), right?


I made a vow to only talk soccer on the soccer forum.  It's the only way to go.  I have come to the conclusion I was playing with narcissist in soccer.  The higher ups ((the dude I was dealing with)) was so full of himself and only spoke lie.  Not English bro, just spoke Lie, like Thai.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They really do want to lock us down for ever.  Talking now no return to normal until next winter
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Florida begs to differ - so does Texas for the most part. CO governor already used the term "normal" for May-July time frame. A few weeks ago, CO was the 4th most restrictive state. CA leaders are well-practiced at virtue signaling. The only thing they may continue to do is threatening entities that have licenses in the County/City and side with the teacher's unions. Unless one of these variants puts cases through the roof again, that's all they'll have left soon.


----------



## crush (Feb 11, 2021)

*Throw back Thursday*​
Here's some off topic stuff to chat about.  I know some on here think I just keep repeating myself.  Yes, many of you dads think I come on here to bring attention to myself and all my failures as an athlete and not making it pro in anything, so I live through my dd.  Your perception is wrong, just so you know.  I will say I'm a pro husband and a pro dad.  Not perfect but learning everyday to be better.  That's the only thing I'm trying to be a professional in.  This little girl was just trying to be the best soccer player she could be.  It was the bad apples in the soccer tree that caused much pain.  She's just a girl who wants to play soccer, dont forget that, ever please.  Some Docs were bad apples and I mean real bad.  Worms and magets inside what looked so shinny on the outside.  Dont mess around with girls and their dreams guys.  Learn your lessons and dont repeat the same mistake again.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 11, 2021)

While this thing jumps to a bunch of unsupported conclusions, it is a decent summary of the arguments against universal mask usage, the assumptions of asymptomatic transmission, and the way we got school closures.









						Masking: A Careful Review of the Evidence
					

"The predominant conclusion is that face masks have a very important role in places such as hospitals, but there exists very little evidence of widespread benefit for members of the public (adults or children) as well as evidence that masking is truly an ineffectual way to manage...




					www.aier.org


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 11, 2021)

First crack in the universal airplane mask requirement.  Only an option for first/business class lay flat passengers









						Cathay Pacific adds mask exemption for premium passengers - The Points Guy
					

Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific said that it's easing mask restrictions for its business- and first-class passengers.




					thepointsguy.com


----------



## espola (Feb 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> While this thing jumps to a bunch of unsupported conclusions, it is a decent summary of the arguments against universal mask usage, the assumptions of asymptomatic transmission, and the way we got school closures.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Paul Alexander is the doctor who, while working for the t HHS, advocated getting as many people infected as possible as quickly as possible.  The survivors would then have, by definition, "herd immunity".


----------



## espola (Feb 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> First crack in the universal airplane mask requirement.  Only an option for first/business class lay flat passengers
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It was unfair to Marie Antoinette for her comment about brioche being mistranslated as "cake".


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

The new Biden admin school guidance is being release later today. It basically adopts California’s tier system for school reopening a though it’s unclear yet how sensitive they are (see article I posted in Biden thread). It’s basically a cave to the teachers union and reverses the position previously that schools are safe to reopen. In the highest tiers schools can only reopen if they are testing students and staff regularly. They build in equity concerns which have been used in la county to ding private and charters that have wanted to test regularly. It preserves the 6ft requirement which means for public schools full time is a challenge. Teacher vaccination not a requirement but states told to vaccinate teachers as a priority and these restrictions to continue even if teachers fully vaccinated.  Masks on students pretty much forever. For us here the worse thing is an express requirement to prioritize school before extracurricular activities and sports.  This is just really awful anti science stuff here.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 12, 2021)

Damn, looks like those QAnon folks have infiltrated the NYTimes 


*Covid testing as exercise*​

In a public health emergency, absolutism is a very tempting response: People should cease all behavior that creates additional risk.​

That instinct led to calls for gay men to stop having sex during the AIDS crisis. It has also spurred campaigns for teen abstinence, to reduce sexually transmitted diseases and pregnancies. And to fight obesity, people have been drawn to fads like the elimination of trans fats or carbohydrates.​

These days, there is a new absolutist health fad: the discouragement — or even prohibition — of any behavior that seems to increase the risk of coronavirus infection, even minutely.​

People continue to scream at joggers, walkers and cyclists who are not wearing masks. The University of California, Berkeley, this week banned outdoor exercise, masked or not, saying, “The risk is real.” The University of Massachusetts Amherst has banned outdoor walks. It encouraged students to get exercise by “accessing food and participating in twice-weekly Covid testing.”​

A related trend is “hygiene theater,” as Derek Thompson of The Atlantic described it: The New York City subway system closes every night, for example, so that workers can perform a deep cleaning.​

There are two big questions to ask about these actions: How much are they doing to reduce the spread of the virus? And do they have any downside?​

*No documented cases*​

The answer to the first question, according to many experts, is: They seem to do little good. Prohibiting outdoor activity is unlikely to reduce the spread of the virus, nor is urging people always to wear a mask outdoors.​

Worldwide, scientists have not documented any instances of outdoor transmission unless people were in close conversation, Dr. Muge Cevik, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, told me. “The small number of cases where outdoor transmission might have occurred,” she wrote on Twitter, “were associated with close interactions, particularly extended duration, or settings where people mixed indoors alongside an outdoor setting.” The new variants of the virus are more contagious, but there is no evidence to suggest they will change this pattern.

As my colleague Tara Parker-Pope puts it, “Avoid breathing the air that other people exhale.”​

A student walking across campus — let alone a masked student — presents little risk to another student who remains at least six feet away. The same goes for joggers in your neighborhood.​

The story is similar for deep cleaning. “Scientists increasingly say that there is little to no evidence that contaminated surfaces can spread the virus,” my colleagues Mike Ives and Apoorva Mandavilli have written. The one surface that is important to wash, frequently and vigorously, is the human hand.​

Which brings us to the second question — whether there is any downside to absolutism. Covid-19 is a horrible disease. And the notion that a jogger somewhere might infect somebody she passes, even from more than six feet away, is scientifically plausible.​

So why not take every possible precaution at all times?​





A gym in Los Angeles, where up to 10 people at a time can exercise outdoors while wearing masks.Kendrick Brinson for The New York Times​

(cont.)​


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 12, 2021)

(cont. from previous)


*Unintended consequences*​

The short answer is: because we are human.​

Taking every possible precaution is unrealistic, just as telling all gay men and teenagers to abstain from sex was unrealistic. Human beings are social creatures who crave connection and pleasure and who cannot minimize danger at all times.​

Despite the risks, we eat carbs, drink wine, go sledding and even ride in automobiles. We enjoy taking outdoor walks and drinking a cup of coffee on a public bench. Many people who exercise find it difficult to do so in a mask. “It feels a bit like suffocating,” Shannon Palus wrote in Slate.​

I’ve noticed that some of the clearest voices against Covid absolutism are researchers who have spent much of their careers studying HIV, including Cevik, Julia Marcus, Sarit Golub and Aaron Richterman. They know the history. The demonization of sex during the AIDS crisis contributed to more unsafe sex. If all sex is bad, why focus on safe sex?​

There is a similar dynamic with Covid. “People do not have unlimited energy, so we should ask them to be vigilant where it matters most,” Cevik has written.​

Telling Americans to wear masks when they’re unnecessary undermines efforts to persuade more people to wear masks where they are vital. Remember: Americans are not doing a particularly good job of wearing masks when they make a big difference, indoors and when people are close together outdoors.​

Banning college students from outdoor walks won’t make them stay inside their dorm rooms for weeks on end. But it probably will increase the chances that they surreptitiously gather indoors.​

And spending money on deep cleaning leaves less money for safety measures that will protect people, like faster vaccination.​

“Rules that are really more about showing that you’re doing something versus doing something that’s actually effective” are counterproductive, Marcus told my colleague Ian Prasad Philbrick. “Trust is the currency of public health.”​


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 12, 2021)




----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 12, 2021)

crush said:


> *Throw back Thursday*​
> Here's some off topic stuff to chat about.  I know some on here think I just keep repeating myself.  Yes, many of you dads think I come on here to bring attention to myself and all my failures as an athlete and not making it pro in anything, so I live through my dd.  Your perception is wrong, just so you know.  I will say I'm a pro husband and a pro dad.  Not perfect but learning everyday to be better.  That's the only thing I'm trying to be a professional in.  This little girl was just trying to be the best soccer player she could be.  It was the bad apples in the soccer tree that caused much pain.  She's just a girl who wants to play soccer, dont forget that, ever please.  Some Docs were bad apples and I mean real bad.  Worms and magets inside what looked so shinny on the outside.  Dont mess around with girls and their dreams guys.  Learn your lessons and dont repeat the same mistake again.
> 
> View attachment 10076


I just hope she's ok with you posting her photo on here.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The new Biden admin school guidance is being release later today. It basically adopts California’s tier system for school reopening a though it’s unclear yet how sensitive they are (see article I posted in Biden thread). It’s basically a cave to the teachers union and reverses the position previously that schools are safe to reopen. In the highest tiers schools can only reopen if they are testing students and staff regularly. They build in equity concerns which have been used in la county to ding private and charters that have wanted to test regularly. It preserves the 6ft requirement which means for public schools full time is a challenge. Teacher vaccination not a requirement but states told to vaccinate teachers as a priority and these restrictions to continue even if teachers fully vaccinated.  Masks on students pretty much forever. For us here the worse thing is an express requirement to prioritize school before extracurricular activities and sports.  This is just really awful anti science stuff here.


I can really see my county (and school board,) ignoring this if it means they have to go back to virtual or stay hybrid much longer.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I can really see my county (and school board,) ignoring this if it means they have to go back to virtual or stay hybrid much longer.


That’s the 100m dollar question. Increasingly the federal guidance seems to be saying no return to normal for years. The current systems are tied to cases which will still surge every now and then for years the come. When do people say enough and start to ignore it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 12, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> View attachment 10086


Funny how they show that now. After months and months of "worrying" about children, etc in their various "news" reports. 

From the CDC as of today. 

137 kids14 and under have died so far due to covid. Read that number again. That constitutes 0.000309 of all deaths.

763 people under 24 have died so far due to covid. Why exactly have schools and universities been shut? That constitutes 0.00172 of all deaths. 

These numbers percentage wise haven't changed. We knew these numbers within a couple of months after the start of our covid adventure. 

Follow the science. The science shows who is not at risk. 

And yet various governors and a variety of teachers unions and other politicians are "devising" tiers which in theory indicate when it MAY be safe to go back to school OR play sports. 

At some point people need to stand up and say screw this, and demand changes back to normal.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s the 100m dollar question. Increasingly the federal guidance seems to be saying no return to normal for years. The current systems are tied to cases which will still surge every now and then for years the come. When do people say enough and start to ignore it.


I feel badly complaining because I know some of you still have kids fully remote. But- I hate my oldest child's schedule. 5 days on campus but in an am/pm model so they can keep distance still. But it's so disruptive to the work day when dismissal times are like 3 hours after drop off. If we had to stay distanced, the 3 full days, (she used to have,) was easier! 

Our board has said full stop- no more hybrid variant come April no matter wth is going on with covid. So, that's why I think that if these guidelines screw with that they are basically going to say fk it and press on with a full return to all kids on campus.


----------



## crush (Feb 12, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I just hope she's ok with you posting her photo on here.


GOAT FC


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 12, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> View attachment 10086


Wait, there are other considerations that just catching the virus? Who knew?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s the 100m dollar question. Increasingly the federal guidance seems to be saying no return to normal for years. The current systems are tied to cases which will still surge every now and then for years the come. When do people say enough and start to ignore it.


Florida? Months ago.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Florida? Months ago.


The issue with Florida is the Biden admin seems to want to put travel restrictions in place for punishing them for that.  If he tries it, what will Florida do?


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 12, 2021)

crush said:


> GOAT FC


I don't know what that means.


----------



## espola (Feb 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The issue with Florida is the Biden admin seems to want to put travel restrictions in place for punishing them for that.  If he tries it, what will Florida do?











						Biden Administration confirms there is no plan for travel ban for Florida
					

A news report sparked a harsh, politically-tinged public backlash from Florida leaders at all levels who commented on a travel ban supposedly under consideration by the Biden Administration. But no such plan exists.




					www.local10.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

This is essentially the California plan.  6ft and cohorting assures middle and high schools will not return to normal next year.  Best thing that can be said for it are that the tier thresholds are much looser than California's




			https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community/schools-childcare/K-12-Operational-Strategy-2021-2-12.pdf?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcommunity%2Fschools-childcare%2Foperation-strategy.html


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is essentially the California plan.  6ft and cohorting assures middle and high schools will not return to normal next year.  Best thing that can be said for it are that the tier thresholds are much looser than California's
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you look at the tier chart, all contact sports (those that cannot maintain 6 feet) are banned even in the blue tier.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I don't know what that means.


Goat FC is an allstars thing some parents on these forums do....they get together girls from various team and enter them in a high level tournament just for fun, minimal coaching


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 12, 2021)

So let me ask this- is this just "guidance" or can districts go rogue? Are there repercussions if these are not followed?

And, did I miss whether this applies to schools already open? (Sorry- skimming while working.)


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Goat FC is an allstars thing some parents on these forums do....they get together girls from various team and enter them in a high level tournament just for fun, minimal coaching


Thank you. Still not sure how his response fits to my comment but well... it's Crush. Lol


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> So let me ask this- is this just "guidance" or can districts go rogue? Are there repercussions if these are not followed?
> 
> And, did I miss whether this applies to schools already open? (Sorry- skimming while working.)


Just guidance.  Can be more restrictive.  If less restrictive may be issues with teachers unions, insurance companies and facilities.  Depends in big part how the states implement.  Florida probably tells them to F off then what.


----------



## espola (Feb 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Just guidance.  Can be more restrictive.  If less restrictive may be issues with teachers unions, insurance companies and facilities.  Depends in big part how the states implement.  Florida probably tells them to F off then what.


Last year Florida screwed up.  This year they have a chance to do better.









						JUE Insight: College Student Travel Contributed to Local COVID-19 Spread
					

Due to the suspension of in-person classes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, students at universities with earlier spring breaks traveled and returned to ca



					papers.ssrn.com


----------



## espola (Feb 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Last year Florida screwed up.  This year they have a chance to do better.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Abstract
Due to the suspension of in-person classes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, students
at universities with earlier spring breaks traveled and returned to campus while those with
later spring breaks largely did not. We use variation in academic calendars to study how travel
affected the evolution of COVID-19 cases and mortality. Estimates imply that counties with
more early spring break students had a higher growth rate of cases than counties with fewer
early spring break students. The increase in case growth rates peaked two weeks after spring
break. Effects are larger for universities with students more likely to travel through airports,
to New York City, and to popular Florida destinations. Consistent with secondary spread to
more vulnerable populations, we find a delayed increase in mortality growth rates. Lastly, we
present evidence that viral infection transmission due to college student travel also occurred
prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

This.  Biden has betrayed the children of this country in favor of the teacher's union, and what's worse has spit in their faces by even making sports more difficult.......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360326385487740932


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you look at the tier chart, all contact sports (those that cannot maintain 6 feet) are banned even in the blue tier.


Why does the CDC come out with guidance like this when their own numbers show people under 24 have essentially ZERO risk. 

Their mitigation strategies as you read it makes it sound like hey these kids/teens have something to be worried about. 

The reality is a vaccine wont change the risk factor in any significant manner for the ages 24 and below since basically nobody in this age group is at risk. 

Distancing, pods, masks...whatever make little sense because the data shows they have no risk. 

Why do we put up with this dog and pony security theater show related to individuals who are not at risk? 

People talk about when are the kids getting the vaccine so they can be safe and go back to school. Vaccine or not...they are safe and can go back to school. I posted how many under 24 have died this year due to covid. Vastly more have died from car crashes, etc. 

It is bewildering to listen to these people and their guidance.


----------



## watfly (Feb 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Last year Florida screwed up.  This year they have a chance to do better.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Weird that California has more cases per capita than Florida, yet Florida has had significantly less restrictions.  Schools open, sports open, even Disney World is open and have been open for some time.  Must be the humidity.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 12, 2021)

watfly said:


> Weird that California has more cases per capita than Florida, yet Florida has had significantly less restrictions.  Schools open, sports open, even Disney World is open and have been open for some time.  Must be the humidity.


Florida doesn’t report all cases, remember?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 12, 2021)

CDC's new guidance guaranteed to keep many schools closed or hybrid only next fall, it's totally lacking in science, Biden admin did it totally in a bend to the teacher's union.  Truly disgusting.









						CDC's New 'Reopening' Guidance Will Keep Schools Closed in the Fall
					

It's an excellent afternoon to be a treasurer for a private school, or an accelerationist seeking to hollow out public...




					reason.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Just guidance.  Can be more restrictive.  If less restrictive may be issues with teachers unions, insurance companies and facilities.  Depends in big part how the states implement.  Florida probably tells them to F off then what.


Yeah, in Santa Clara County, I never worry about National or State guidance. I know my county will make sure it goes to the "next level" to protect us and create more strict requirements. I am sure Sarah Cody is looking enviously at the UMass Amherst and UC Berkeley's restrictions on students not being allowed outside. Power + Special Interest Groups + Irrational Fear >> Science. Science never stood a chance.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 13, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Yeah, in Santa Clara County, I never worry about National or State guidance. I know my county will make sure it goes to the "next level" to protect us and create more strict requirements. I am sure Sarah Cody is looking enviously at the UMass Amherst and UC Berkeley's restrictions on students not being allowed outside. Power + Special Interest Groups + Irrational Fear >> Science. Science never stood a chance.


Can tou imagine writing that check to Cal for your kids eduction and them having to live under these restrictions?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 13, 2021)

As expected Florida is the first state to say f/u to the new cdc guidelines. Good for them. Where is that ticket office for the de santis express?


----------



## espola (Feb 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As expected Florida is the first state to say f/u to the new cdc guidelines. Good for them. Where is that ticket office for the de santis express?


Is this " first state to say f/u to the new cdc guidelines" in response to something specific?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Is this " first state to say f/u to the new cdc guidelines" in response to something specific?


The cdc schools and sports guidelines.


----------



## espola (Feb 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The cdc schools and sports guidelines.


Where does the "f/u" part come in?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Where does the "f/u" part come in?


He said no thanks. They are going to ignore the new guidance on grounds it’s not scientific


----------



## espola (Feb 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He said no thanks. They are going to ignore the new guidance on grounds it’s not scientific


When I want to say "no thanks" I usually don't say "f/u" (or vice versa).


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 13, 2021)

espola said:


> When I want to say "no thanks" I usually don't say "f/u" (or vice versa).


Somehow I have a hard time picturing you as being polite. You are a self professed curmudgeon.  Frankly have a hard time picturing your family putting up with you. Now that’s love!


----------



## crush (Feb 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> *Goat FC is an allstars* thing some parents on these forums do....they get together girls from various team and enter them in a high level tournament just for fun, minimal coaching


When my dd played, it was just a bunch of club players ((just soccer players)) and their parents looking to play for fun, with no Doc or Yeller to yell at them or fat shame or as one idiot male coach asked some girls who were crying, "are you on your period again?  Total loser male coach with no dd or ds.  It was pure fun and the girls had fun and so did us crazy ass parents who saw all this before it happen.  We just lived it.  GOAT is what all parents think of their child.  My dd is the greatest soccer player of all time that I watch.  It's a blast


----------



## espola (Feb 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Somehow I have a hard time picturing you as being polite. You are a self professed curmudgeon.  Frankly have a hard time picturing your family putting up with you. Now that’s love!


Your statement about Florida saying f/u and your followup statements have no information in them.  What did you mean by any of that?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Your statement about Florida saying f/u and your followup statements have no information in them.  What did you mean by any of that?


Still struggling with comprehension I see


----------



## espola (Feb 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Still struggling with comprehension I see


I thought you had some news event to share.  I was wrong.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 13, 2021)

espola said:


> I thought you had some news event to share.  I was wrong.


Crash!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Crash!


Claiming victory does not one make (see: trump the big lie 2020)


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
> 
> ***
> 
> ...


Ok, 2 weeks down: 4 to 12 weeks out now.

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.

“You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher —  450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

N00B said:


> This is exactly why I don’t want COVID discussions to be solely relegated to off-topic.
> 
> Wish there was an alternative or middle ground.  Maybe a forum with differing guidelines than the other areas?  Possibly, a no-personal attacks policy for that forum, and/or reactions only to express your opinion on a post?  Just trying to be creative as I found that discussion worthwhile and I fear that in this section discussion will be stifled with lack of participation to avoid interactions like the above post.


We can’t even keep the personal attacks off when discussing soccer.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Claiming victory does not one make (see: trump the big lie 2020)


Oh when he’s not nonsensing or calling people coco, he’s always crashing the cute little yellow car and going off the road. It’s his thing.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ok, 2 weeks down: 4 to 12 weeks out now.
> 
> “The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
> 
> “You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher —  450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”


The reason he’s wrong is that so many people missed the seasonal impact of the thing.  The variant only tells you how much wind is blowing to push the fire (a lot). It doesn’t tell you how much fuel is there or what will set it off.  That’s why dad in his model when he did the math left off the seasonal impact.  If it follows the same pattern as other respiratory viruses (as well as last spring) we should see a rise in late March-June but a. We are taking away a lot of the high risk fuel with the vaccinations and b. It’s not going to be anywhere near as bad as winter due to the vaccinations, seasonality and other burnt fuel.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The reason he’s wrong is that so many people missed the seasonal impact of the thing.  The variant only tells you how much wind is blowing to push the fire (a lot). It doesn’t tell you how much fuel is there or what will set it off.  That’s why dad in his model when he did the math left off the seasonal impact.  If it follows the same pattern as other respiratory viruses (as well as last spring) we should see a rise in late March-June but a. We are taking away a lot of the high risk fuel with the vaccinations and b. It’s not going to be anywhere near as bad as winter due to the vaccinations, seasonality and other burnt fuel.


Do you really believe that an epidemiologist that is an advisor to the President of the United States didn't consider seasonality? I think it's more likely that he is associated with a little-known faction of "influencers" known as "Team Fear" who believe that to control people's actions one needs to maintain a certain level of panic. I guess we'll see. If he's anywhere close to being correct, things will be legitimately bleak.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Do you really believe that an epidemiologist that is an advisor to the President of the United States didn't consider seasonality? I think it's more likely that he is associated with a little-known faction of "influencers" known as "Team Fear" who believe that to control people's actions one needs to maintain a certain level of panic. I guess we'll see. If he's anywhere close to being correct, things will be legitimately bleak.


I think you are right to some extent. But they’ve also consistently discounted seasonality as a factor. It goes against their notion that the thing can actually be controlled and it’s offensive to them that something like the weather might be the prime factor in all this particularly since they don’t understand it very well.


----------



## espola (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I think you are right to some extent. But they’ve also consistently discounted seasonality as a factor. It goes against their notion that the thing can actually be controlled and it’s offensive to them that something like the weather might be the prime factor in all this particularly since they don’t understand it very well.


From a statistical and epidemiological sense, what is the magnitude of seasonality, and how should it be applied?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

espola said:


> From a statistical and epidemiological sense, what is the magnitude of seasonality, and how should it be applied?


We have no idea. The experts have no idea. They’ve been caught completely off guard by it. Dad 4 couldn’t apply the math to the model we analyzed because he doesn’t know. Sometimes the answer is we don’t know. We know now though it’s big and we suspect it may be the prime moving factor


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Somehow I have a hard time picturing you as being polite. You are a self professed curmudgeon.  Frankly have a hard time picturing your family putting up with you. Now that’s love!


Totally!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh when he’s not nonsensing or calling people coco, he’s always crashing the cute little yellow car and going off the road. It’s his thing.


Went right by ya.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Went right by ya.


You two must be related. I’d say you are the same person but your posts are much more lucid than his.


----------



## N00B (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The reason he’s wrong is that so many people missed the seasonal impact of the thing.  The variant only tells you how much wind is blowing to push the fire (a lot). It doesn’t tell you how much fuel is there or what will set it off.  That’s why dad in his model when he did the math left off the seasonal impact.  If it follows the same pattern as other respiratory viruses (as well as last spring) we should see a rise in late March-June but a. We are taking away a lot of the high risk fuel with the vaccinations and b. It’s not going to be anywhere near as bad as winter due to the vaccinations, seasonality and other burnt fuel.


Not to be contrarian, but there is a case to be made for continued vigilance even as the case load declines, seasonally, and the vaccination rollout continues to drives down the negative impact of the virus.

The fewer active cases, the less the opportunity for mutations of the virus to evade the vaccination efforts.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

N00B said:


> Not to be contrarian, but there is a case to be made for continued vigilance even as the case load declines, seasonally, and the vaccination rollout continues to drives down the negative impact of the virus.
> 
> The fewer active cases, the less the opportunity for mutations of the virus to evade the vaccination efforts.


Would agree but the third world is shapping up to be a s show when it comes vaccinations (Europe can’t even get right). And we don’t have and won’t any time soon a vaccine for the under 12.  We also know some western vaccines (like the az and j&j) and maybe the Russian and Chinese vaccines don’t work as well as the mRNA ones. That’s a whole ton of space for mutations.  It might even encourage mutations as life finds a way to survive.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

This confirms what we've suspected that you can get sick after getting even an mRNA vaccine.  The next relevant question is whether you are capable of infecting others (and by how much) to determine how big of a problem with cases after everyone is offered the vaccine.  If we just care about serious illness and death this is good news but neither California's standards of the Biden CDC school/sports guidelines (which are focused on cases) care about that.









						Four people in Oregon who received both doses of vaccine test positive for coronavirus
					

There are two cases each in Yamhill and Lane counties, the state's Health Authority said.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

This guy has become an absolute and complete joke









						Fauci: Stimulus bill needs to be passed for schools to reopen
					

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said on Sunday that a stimulus bill needed to be passed in order for schools to safely reopen.While appearing on ABC’s “This …



					thehill.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

Another so-called expert caving into politics  Even Tapper can't believe it.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361131200136572928


----------



## espola (Feb 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This guy has become an absolute and complete joke
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How so?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 14, 2021)

espola said:


> How so?


He says the stimulus needs pass for schools to open.


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He says the stimulus needs pass for schools to open.


Did you read more than the headline?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Did you read more than the headline?


Yup. Mans a moron and a political hack


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yup. Mans a moron and a political hack


So you don't like his plan to open schools quickly?


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Feb 15, 2021)

Does anyone here think schools in CA will open to 5 day/full time once teachers get vaccinated?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> So you don't like his plan to open schools quickly?


That’s funny


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s funny


However, Fauci on Sunday appeared to be optimistic about reopening schools, a move that he has been supportive of throughout the pandemic, arguing the detriment to young students was too great. 

"I think it can be done. I mean, obviously it's not a perfect situation, but it's really important to get the children back to school in a safest way as possible. Safe for the children, but also safe for the teachers and the other educators," Fauci said.


----------



## crush (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> However, Fauci on Sunday appeared to be optimistic about reopening schools, a move that he has been supportive of throughout the pandemic, arguing the detriment to young students was too great.
> 
> "I think it can be done. I mean, obviously it's not a perfect situation, but it's really important to get the children back to school in a safest way as possible. Safe for the children, but also safe for the teachers and the other educators," Fauci said.


Do you have a fav bro?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> However, Fauci on Sunday appeared to be optimistic about reopening schools, a move that he has been supportive of throughout the pandemic, arguing the detriment to young students was too great.
> 
> "I think it can be done. I mean, obviously it's not a perfect situation, but it's really important to get the children back to school in a safest way as possible. Safe for the children, but also safe for the teachers and the other educators," Fauci said.


You really magooed it this time. There’s an entire thread that shows (complete with citations and where dad4 even breaks it down) why the cdc recommendations are even slightly more restrictive than California’s. It’s not a school reopening plan....it would currently at this time require the overwhelming closure of schools and sports already in session. You are really asleep at the wheel on this one and all this discussion just went over your head, and now on top of the new guidance he says we need the stimulus bill. The mans a joke, and if you take that statement at its word, you are either a fool or a fellow liar.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

Chelsea dad g09 said:


> Does anyone here think schools in CA will open to 5 day/full time once teachers get vaccinated?


Three variables we don’t know: 1. Does newsom back away from California’s table for education or does he double down and accept the new cdc guidelines...that’s a political question based in part of the recall and teachers union, 2. Do we get a new spring wave, and 3. Does the j&j vaccine get approved and will the under 65 take it.


----------



## texanincali (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This guy has become an absolute and complete joke
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What I don't understand is why he is talking like school has been closed all over the country.  There are large population swaths that have been back in school since August and so far and there is no data that shows it has been dangerous.  These locations didn't need additional resources to open.  Maybe their budgets took a bit of a hit with hand sanitizer and plastic shield costs, but none were dependent on a mass funding bill to get schools back open.


----------



## crush (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You really magooed it this time. There’s an entire thread that shows (complete with citations and where dad4 even breaks it down) why the cdc recommendations are even slightly more restrictive than California’s. It’s not a school reopening plan....it would currently at this time require the overwhelming closure of schools and sports already in session. You are really asleep at the wheel on this one and all this discussion just went over your head, and now on top of the new guidance he says we need the stimulus bill. The mans a joke, and if you take that statement at its word, you are either a fool or a fellow liar.


Great insight Grace.  Time to make your closing argument soon.  You and I have been here a long time sister.  You know crush deeply, he has shared his good, bad and ugly.  I poured my soul to all to read about.  Some say I like attention.  I agree, I love it.  I also loved being a kid and the fact is, I never stopped being one because it's so fun.  Their are some sick and selfish assholes on here and other walks of life who think this is so funny and one big game of chess, so they can have power, control and all the gold.  They lost all the gold and now mad!!!  The kids were being used as pawns by jerks.  It's almost over.  They will have their day when they meet Mr Justice.  Dont mess with kids!!!


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You really magooed it this time. There’s an entire thread that shows (complete with citations and where dad4 even breaks it down) why the cdc recommendations are even slightly more restrictive than California’s. It’s not a school reopening plan....it would currently at this time require the overwhelming closure of schools and sports already in session. You are really asleep at the wheel on this one and all this discussion just went over your head, and now on top of the new guidance he says we need the stimulus bill. The mans a joke, and if you take that statement at its word, you are either a fool or a fellow liar.


What brought that on?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> What brought that on?


See below


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

A good breakdown by a good guy (Guy Benson) on why the CDC' director's statements are absolutely maddening.





__





						Video: New CDC Director Suddenly Evasive and Noncommittal on Re-Opening Schools
					

Politicized Science.




					townhall.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

I don't agree with everything Shapiro writes but this is spot on too.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361319839097253889


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> See below


Below you linked an article and a tweet critical of CDC, authored by nationally recognized medical non-experts Ben Shapiro and Guy Benson.  Fauci doesn't work for CDC - he's director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.  As for being a "political hack" - this "moron" (who graduated at the top of his Cornell medical school class) has had the same job since 1984.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Below you linked an article and a tweet critical of CDC, authored by nationally recognized medical non-experts Ben Shapiro and Guy Benson.  Fauci doesn't work for CDC - he's director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.  As for being a "political hack" - this "moron" (who graduated at the top of his Cornell medical school class) has had the same job since 1984.


1. You asked what brought that on.  You were asking a question about my reaction.  I answered. We are po'd by the complete politicization of this process by the Biden admin
2, As to the merits, it's been discussed an in the other thread.  In summary: there's nothing scientific about the new CDC guidelines, its a complete cave in to the teachers unions, and would require the closure of a super majority of the schools and sports programs currently open.
3. I've said before you aren't no dumb dumb.  The issue with you is no doubt age has clouded your formerly brilliant mind (since I still see flashes of lucidity there). It's not intended as a slight....just a statement of reality, which is sad.  You do have my honest sympathy.  I'm sure you were quite fearsome in your day.
4. So political hack it is.  That is intended as a slight.  It's what you are if you support these ludicrous CDC guidelines.


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 1. You asked what brought that on.  You were asking a question about my reaction.  I answered. We are po'd by the complete politicization of this process by the Biden admin
> 2, As to the merits, it's been discussed an in the other thread.  In summary: there's nothing scientific about the new CDC guidelines, its a complete cave in to the teachers unions, and would require the closure of a super majority of the schools and sports programs currently open.
> 3. I've said before you aren't no dumb dumb.  The issue with you is no doubt age has clouded your formerly brilliant mind (since I still see flashes of lucidity there). It's not intended as a slight....just a statement of reality, which is sad.  You do have my honest sympathy.  I'm sure you were quite fearsome in your day.
> 4. So political hack it is.  That is intended as a slight.  It's what you are if you support these ludicrous CDC guidelines.


You have posted several dishonest insults directed at Fauci over the last year.  So who is the political hack?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> You have posted several dishonest insults directed at Fauci over the last year.  So who is the political hack?


I'm a political centrist that was a fervent Obama supporter and was disgusted by Trump's behavior in the closing days of his admin (you by contrast have yet to meet a modern D you dislike).

Fauci is either a moron or a hack:

1.He's been wrong about nearly everything
2. He has engaged in massive goalpost moving
3.He's admitted he repeatedly lied (about masks and immunity thresholds)out of some sort of paternalism.
4. And now he's supported this ludicrous school closing plan despite saying schools are safe.  What's worse is he doubled down and said the stimulus was needed.

The man is awful.  The man is the worst.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 15, 2021)

I try and stay out of these back and forths but come on Grace, Fauci is no "hack". He is being thrust into an area that is new to him and his words are constantly dissected. I'm not saying he's been spot-on, (obviously that's not the case.) He's been behind the scenes for all of his career (for the most part,) and has had a spotlight put on him in what is arguably the most highly contentious political arena in quite some time. Should he know his (public facing) limits enough to step back back? Probably. But to call him a hack doesn't make sense.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I try and stay out of these back and forths but come on Grace, Fauci is no "hack". He is being thrust into an area that is new to him and his words are constantly dissected. I'm not saying he's been spot-on, (obviously that's not the case.) He's been behind the scenes for all of his career (for the most part,) and has had a spotlight put on him in what is arguably the most highly contentious political arena in quite some time. Should he know his (public facing) limits enough to step back back? Probably. But to call him a hack doesn't make sense.


I would have agreed with you up until his support of the CDC standards and doubling down on them by saying we also need to pass the stimulus.  The latter is a blatant injection into the political arena.  He knows the CDC standards are more restrictive and would result in school closing, despite his previous position the schools should be open.  Given his prior position, he should have either publicly come out against the admin or resigned.  He didn't in a blatant betrayal to all our children.


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm a political centrist that was a fervent Obama supporter and was disgusted by Trump's behavior in the closing days of his admin (you by contrast have yet to meet a modern D you dislike).
> 
> Fauci is either a moron or a hack:
> 
> ...


I dislike Democrat Bob Filner. I liked him for a while for personal reasons, not because of his party affiliation.  His actions in the House benefitted Filipino veterans of WW2, one of whom is my wife's uncle.  However, when word of his offensive behavior toward women came to light, I made a non-partisan decision to dislike him.

He is definitely not the worst.  He didn't send a mob to overturn the government.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I think you are right to some extent. But they’ve also consistently discounted seasonality as a factor. It goes against their notion that the thing can actually be controlled and it’s offensive to them that something like the weather might be the prime factor in all this particularly since they don’t understand it very well.


And, here we go. This expert implies restrictions don't matter. Florida doesn't have any and their infections are going down. We can eliminate the restrictions and people will do what is necessary.

***
***

Kudos to all the Americans who've been responsible about mask wearing and social distancing. Health experts say your efforts are paying off.
After an abysmal start to winter, some Covid-19 numbers have been falling for weeks. ...

"It's what we're doing right: staying apart, wearing masks, not traveling, not mixing with others indoors," said Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

***
***









						Here's why some Covid-19 numbers keep improving. (Hint: It's not widespread vaccinations)
					

Kudos to everyone who's been doubling down on mask wearing and social distancing. Health experts say your efforts are paying off. But that's not the only reason numbers are going down. And it's not a pass to let up on safety measures.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I would have agreed with you up until his support of the CDC standards and doubling down on them by saying we also need to pass the stimulus.  The latter is a blatant injection into the political arena.  He knows the CDC standards are more restrictive and would result in school closing, despite his previous position the schools should be open.  Given his prior position, he should have either publicly come out against the admin or resigned.  He didn't in a blatant betrayal to all our children.


"..up until his support of the CDC standards..."?  If you will stipulate that you have been critical of Fauci for most of last year, you can save me the trouble of digging up quotes.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 15, 2021)

texanincali said:


> What I don't understand is why he is talking like school has been closed all over the country.  There are large population swaths that have been back in school since August and so far and there is no data that shows it has been dangerous.  These locations didn't need additional resources to open.  Maybe their budgets took a bit of a hit with hand sanitizer and plastic shield costs, but none were dependent on a mass funding bill to get schools back open.


It's so odd how some leaders/experts talk about it. There is a disconnect that is hard to explain by anything other than being out of touch.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> "..up until his support of the CDC standards..."?  If you will stipulate that you have been critical of Fauci for most of last year, you can save me the trouble of digging up quotes.


I have been critical of Fauci.  I'd stipulate that.  He was way over his head.  This action though crosses the line deep into political hackery.  It's offensive


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I have been critical of Fauci.  I'd stipulate that.  He was way over his head.  This action though crosses the line deep into political hackery.  It's offensive


Is this the first time you have called him a "political hack", or some similar term?


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I would have agreed with you up until his support of the CDC standards and doubling down on them by saying we also need to pass the stimulus.  The latter is a blatant injection into the political arena.  He knows the CDC standards are more restrictive and would result in school closing, despite his previous position the schools should be open.  Given his prior position, he should have either publicly come out against the admin or resigned.  He didn't in a blatant betrayal to all our children.


Ok so maybe he is moron vs. a hack, (using your two options here.) Moron meaning that yes- some of his actions have been moronic, (mask down in public is one that seemed to piss a lot of folks off.)

I just can't get behind calling someone of his experience level, (not even including his education and overall academic performance,) a hack. 

FWIW- I think he has good intentions with backing this bill. I read it as him saying that the teachers are saying we need x,y,z to open safely- so let's give it to them, (which will cost money.) Which that shows how much power those unions hold, (which is a whole other convo that I haven't had nearly enough coffee for!)


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Is this the first time you have called him a "political hack", or some similar term?


Don't know.  Why don't you research it.

I'm giving Glitterhater the benefit of the doubt here.  I'm saying it's was a fair position to have up until this point, where Fauci now crosses the line into political hackery (as does anyone who calls the CDC plan a guide to reopen schools, when it would result in the closure of most of those already open)


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

texanincali said:


> What I don't understand is why he is talking like school has been closed all over the country.  There are large population swaths that have been back in school since August and so far and there is no data that shows it has been dangerous.  These locations didn't need additional resources to open.  Maybe their budgets took a bit of a hit with hand sanitizer and plastic shield costs, but none were dependent on a mass funding bill to get schools back open.


I have no proof of any direct linkage, but it is interesting to note that the recent big surge in covid cases in the US (the surge from which we are now descending) started ramping up in mid-September.









						Covid Trends
					

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.




					aatishb.com


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Don't know.  Why don't you research it.
> 
> I'm giving Glitterhater the benefit of the doubt here.  I'm saying it's was a fair position to have up until this point, where Fauci now crosses the line into political hackery (as does anyone who calls the CDC plan a guide to reopen schools, when it would result in the closure of most of those already open)


I'll go out on a limb and say that you have.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> I'll go out on a limb and say that you have.


I'd guess not.   Hack maybe, but this is his first overtly political move in the face of the science.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Ok so maybe he is moron vs. a hack, (using your two options here.) Moron meaning that yes- some of his actions have been moronic, (mask down in public is one that seemed to piss a lot of folks off.)
> 
> I just can't get behind calling someone of his experience level, (not even including his education and overall academic performance,) a hack.
> 
> FWIW- I think he has good intentions with backing this bill. I read it as him saying that the teachers are saying we need x,y,z to open safely- so let's give it to them, (which will cost money.) Which that shows how much power those unions hold, (which is a whole other convo that I haven't had nearly enough coffee for!)


It's why we have the saying that the road to hell is always paved with good intentions.  I don't doubt that the political hacks on either side think they are doing's god's work.  The issue is here for the first time, by backing the CDC recommendations, Fauci is knowingly flying in the face of science (with the mask thing, as dad 4 repeatedly has pointed out, at least there's some science there), then what's worse is he says we need the stimulus to reopen schools doubling down on that position, all the while knowing that this isn't a school's reopening plan (and indeed at the current time if implemented would require the closure of a supermajority of the schools in the nation already open).


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's why we have the saying that the road to hell is always paved with good intentions.  I don't doubt that the political hacks on either side think they are doing's god's work.  The issue is here for the first time, by backing the CDC recommendations, Fauci is knowingly flying in the face of science (with the mask thing, as dad 4 repeatedly has pointed out, at least there's some science there), then what's worse is he says we need the stimulus to reopen schools doubling down on that position, all the while knowing that this isn't a school's reopening plan (and indeed at the current time if implemented would require the closure of a supermajority of the schools in the nation already open).


This is straight forward and well put.  It's a simple litmus test to distinguish political hackery from the just plain wrong.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361354743533228038


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'd guess not.   Hack maybe, but this is his first overtly political move in the face of the science.


Should I search on "mask"?


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is straight forward and well put.  It's a simple litmus test to distinguish political hackery from the just plain wrong.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361354743533228038


Who is Eli Klein?  Should I be wary because he might just be a political hack?

And your proposed contrast is political hackery vs. just plain wrong.  Is that what you meant to say?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Should I search on "mask"?


Go for it.  I did accuse him of hypocrisy, for taking his mask off when he thought he was not being photographed multiple times.  I thought he was wrong about the masks, accused him of knowingly lying to the American people for paternalistic reasons and flipflopping on his prior positions, including the double masks.  I thought he was wrong and manipulated the evidence supporting mask usage.  But I never accused him of using masks, for example, to bring down the Trump admin.  That's the distinction here....this is a political act on his part, which he is selling administrative propaganda that this is a schools reopening plan when it is clearly a schools closing plan, as discussed in the other thread.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Who is Eli Klein?  Should I be wary because he might just be a political hack?
> 
> And your proposed contrast is political hackery vs. just plain wrong.  Is that what you meant to say?


Don't know but he nails it.

Yup...this is a litmus test for political hackery v. those that are just wrong but well intentioned.


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Don't know but he nails it.
> 
> Yup...this is a litmus test for political hackery v. those that are just wrong but well intentioned.


Just linking to someone who agrees with you is not much of an argument.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Just linking to someone who agrees with you is not much of an argument.


It's not evidence.  It's a good expression of the litmus test for political hackery.  Can't tell the distinction between the 2 much, can you?


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's not evidence.  It's a good expression of the litmus test for political hackery.  Can't tell the distinction between the 2 much, can you?


The whole premise is just political hackery.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> The whole premise is just political hackery.


Now who's making an assertion without foundation.


----------



## texanincali (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> I have no proof of any direct linkage, but it is interesting to note that the recent big surge in covid cases in the US (the surge from which we are now descending) started ramping up in mid-September.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It is interesting, but like you said, no direct linkage or causation.  States that never went back to school saw the same surge, or even bigger surges in some cases.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 15, 2021)

texanincali said:


> It is interesting, but like you said, no direct linkage or causation.  *States that never went back to school saw the same surge, or even bigger surges in some cases.*


When the conclusion is already determined, certain facts need to be ignored.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> When the conclusion is already determined, certain facts need to be ignored.


I have been saying this for a long time. 

CA's premise was closure of schools, biz, etc would limit the spread. 

Their cases per million are higher vs TX and FL who have taken the other path.


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Now who's making an assertion without foundation.


Obvious by inspection.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Obvious by inspection.


Displaying a little of your own partisan hackery there.  Oh yeah, I keep forgetting...you are a "conservative".


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Displaying a little of your own partisan hackery there.  Oh yeah, I keep forgetting...you are a "conservative".


I guess you can't see it because reading it makes you feel so good.

The conservative in me expects you to lay out precisely, point by point, why you dislike the CDC guidelines so much.  The historian in me suspects that you won't.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> I guess you can't see it because reading it makes you feel so good.
> 
> The conservative in me expects you to lay out precisely, point by point, why you dislike the CDC guidelines so much.  The historian in me suspects that you won't.


It's been asked and answered already in the other thread including support.  I can't help it if you are so lazy you won't go back and read the thread.


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's been asked and answered already in the other thread including support.  I can't help it if you are so lazy you won't go back and read the thread.


Which other thread?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Which other thread?


CA Youth Sports.  We've all been discussing it there.  You've missed it.


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> CA Youth Sports.  We've all been discussing it there.  You've missed it.


I don't see a thread by that name. Is it a closed group?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't see a thread by that name. Is it a closed group?


Nope it's up at the top.  Crush is the last poster.  Maybe you've been banned by someone? ^\_(;?)_/^

Dad4's breakdown of the CDC recommendations was especially useful.


----------



## espola (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nope it's up at the top.  Crush is the last poster.  Maybe you've been banned by someone? ^\_(;?)_/^
> 
> Dad4's breakdown of the CDC recommendations was especially useful.


The top of what?  Is this just a snipe hunt?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

espola said:


> The top of what?  Is this just a snipe hunt?


The top of the forums list. You really do need those glasses (or you've been banned).  Either way it's funny.  Someof the info is on this thread 2 if you look back far enough.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The top of the forums list. You really do need those glasses (or you've been banned).  Either way it's funny.  Someof the info is on this thread 2 if you look back far enough.


I told you....just throw the shoes away and move on. 

Next thing tou know he’ll be asking you to type his responses out for him.


----------



## watfly (Feb 15, 2021)

Fauci means well, but is in way over his head.  His answers are easily influenced by whoever is interviewing him or the loaded questions they ask him.  He is easily steered to a point of view.  He is far from a public health policy leader which requires you to not only look at the issue at hand but also the ramifications of each decision (or interview you give) you make to address the issue.

I posted this at the beginning of the pandemic about how we need to be careful about relying on experts for projections.  








						Why Experts are Almost Always Wrong
					

No one, not even the experts, really knows what's about to happen




					www.smithsonianmag.com
				




Doesn't matter if the projection is negative or positive.  At one point the IHME had reduced their projection as low as around 60,000-80,000 deaths (I don't remember the exact number).  I don't care how smart you are, no one can predict the future with any degree of certainty.

Projecting what the virus will do is also not a math problem.   The virus doesn't follow a predictable path.

Experts are great for telling us what happened, but they're effectively worthless at telling us what will happen.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> Fauci means well, but is in way over his head.  His answers are easily influenced by whoever is interviewing him or the loaded questions they ask him.  He is easily steered to a point of view.  He is far from a public health policy leader which requires you to not only look at the issue at hand but also the ramifications of each decision (or interview you give) you make to address the issue.
> 
> I posted this at the beginning of the pandemic about how we need to be careful about relying on experts for projections.
> 
> ...


This is exactly what I was saying on another thread this morning. I do think he means well- but he's at the point now where he should just stick to what he knows and let someone else do the media stuff.

I do think now that interviewers know this- and have no problems trying to put him in the hot seat. The man is 80, I'm sure he did not expect to be in this position at this juncture!


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> Fauci means well, but is in way over his head.  His answers are easily influenced by whoever is interviewing him or the loaded questions they ask him.  He is easily steered to a point of view.  He is far from a public health policy leader which requires you to not only look at the issue at hand but also the ramifications of each decision (or interview you give) you make to address the issue.
> 
> I posted this at the beginning of the pandemic about how we need to be careful about relying on experts for projections.
> 
> ...


I think the “Faucis is well intentioned but has been duped” theory made arguable sense up to the cdc recommendations.  But to hold up now you’d have to believe he doesn’t understand what the practical effect of the advice is: the closure of a supermajority of sports and schools which are currently open.  Right now he’s selling a school closures plan as a “school reopening” plan. That’s real 1984 ministry of truth stuff so to believe that you’d have to believe he just doesn’t understand the plan. I suppose it’s possible but if he’s really that far gone it’s incumbent on him to retire.  If true it’s an even worse look for the Biden admin because you’d be essentially saying they are using him for their own political ends and he doesn’t understand that.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 15, 2021)

People Who Moved To Texas From California Finally Feeling At Home Now That Power Is Out
					

AUSTIN, TX - Thousands of people who escaped the desolate wasteland of California have found new opportunities by moving to Texas. To help them feel right at home, even the weather is extending some Texas hospitality by knocking out power stations-- giving the former Californians a taste of the...




					babylonbee.com


----------



## watfly (Feb 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If true it’s an even worse look for the Biden admin because you’d be essentially saying they are using him for their own political ends and he doesn’t understand that.


I have no doubt about that.  Dems know people trust him and they know he is clay and can be molded.  Reopening schools is not really his concern per se so he will be deferential on that issue.  He'd much rather talk about the virus, mutations and vaccines.  Hes very niave in terms of politics but he does seem to relish being an epidemiological rock star despite his aw shucks persona.


----------



## met61 (Feb 16, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361515971861569540


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 16, 2021)

This is why blue states have been severely lagging in terms of opening schools. Instead of listening to the science, they are beholden to their unions. And here the CDC wants to take that marvelous system nationwide. 

_The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) admitted during a press conference that it based its new school guidelines on science, but also input from teachers and stakeholders._

- 

We need to put the foot down on the first idea above. We DEFINITELY need to say no to this thought process that seems to be common.


_One last unbelievable note from this press conf: @CDCDirector said that *even after everyone is vaccinated, CDC still might not recommend school open normally 

 According to her, even then, we might need "some combination of mitigation strategies."

-*_









						CDC Admits It Based School Guidelines on Teacher Input and Stakeholders
					

Stakeholders. In other words, lobbying groups. Lobbying groups over parents and students.




					legalinsurrection.com


----------



## espola (Feb 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The top of the forums list. You really do need those glasses (or you've been banned).  Either way it's funny.  Someof the info is on this thread 2 if you look back far enough.


Frustrated at not finding the thread, I gave up looking for it.  Then later, while noodling around in the forum absentmindedly while watching something on TV, the thread title showed up on the Forums page. There it was as the latest update in the SoCalScene grouping.  I clicked into SoCalScene and noodled around for a while and left a reaction to a post I hadn't seen before.

This morning it has disappeared again, at least by that route.  In its place on the Forums page is Camera equipment recommendations and no mention of the thread title in the SoCal Scene page. However, I was able to back into it because of the reaction I left.  So I left a "cookie crumb", and the thread CA youth sports is visible on the Forums page again in the SoCalScene group, but not on the SoCalScene page itself.


----------



## MicPaPa (Feb 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is why blue states have been severely lagging in terms of opening schools.


Actually, this is why...(D)'s electing morons like Mayor de Blasio and normal folks suffer the consequences...this is an actual PSA put out by this fool, unreal!

Let's face it, the left are complete lunatics and control the (D) party...they'll do more damage to the country than the pandemic alone ever could.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361682306348560385"


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is why blue states have been severely lagging in terms of opening schools. Instead of listening to the science, they are beholden to their unions. And here the CDC wants to take that marvelous system nationwide.
> 
> _The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) admitted during a press conference that it based its new school guidelines on science, but also input from teachers and stakeholders._
> 
> ...


Weird times. The divide between viewpoints is daunting. I hate to think what happens if they try to force this on to states like Florida or Texas. My guess is they'll enforce it with the same zeal as immigration policy and it won't mean a thing to states that ignore it.

Public education in CA will take another hit from this in terms of enrollment if this goes through and children aren't back in classes next fall. Public education, in general, will/has already lose enrollment to private schools that have more child-friendly policies and to families who find that home-schooling works well for their children. I don't believe it will be massive, maybe a few percent, but I'd expect cuts to be made next year in CA even if public schools open. If they don't open CA schools to children this fall, don't expect the U-Haul prices to come down anytime soon if you are trying to leave.


----------



## watfly (Feb 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is why blue states have been severely lagging in terms of opening schools. Instead of listening to the science, they are beholden to their unions. And here the CDC wants to take that marvelous system nationwide.
> 
> _The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) admitted during a press conference that it based its new school guidelines on science, but also input from teachers and stakeholders._
> 
> ...


You know its one thing for our family to be frustrated by kids not being back in school, but how about a single parent that works as a grocery clerk.  They must be livid that they can be exposed to hundreds of random adults everyday and they are safe, but teachers can't be exposed to 25 kids every day because some teachers' unions and some politicians fraudulently claim it isn't safe yet.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 16, 2021)

watfly said:


> You know its one thing for our family to be frustrated by kids not being back in school, but how about a single parent that works as a grocery clerk.  They must be livid that they can be exposed to hundreds of random adults everyday and they are safe, but teachers can't be exposed to 25 kids every day because some teachers' unions and some politicians fraudulently claim it isn't safe yet.


I would be going through the roof.


----------



## crush (Feb 16, 2021)

espola said:


> Frustrated at not finding the thread, I gave up looking for it.  Then later, while noodling around in the forum absentmindedly while watching something on TV, the thread title showed up on the Forums page. There it was as the latest update in the SoCalScene grouping.  I clicked into SoCalScene and noodled around for a while and left a reaction to a post I hadn't seen before.
> 
> This morning it has disappeared again, at least by that route.  In its place on the Forums page is Camera equipment recommendations and no mention of the thread title in the SoCal Scene page. However, I was able to back into it because of the reaction I left.  So I left a "cookie crumb", and the thread CA youth sports is visible on the Forums page again in the SoCalScene group, but not on the SoCalScene page itself.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 16, 2021)

MicPaPa said:


> Actually, this is why...(D)'s electing morons like Mayor de Blasio and normal folks suffer the consequences...this is an actual PSA put out by this fool, unreal!
> 
> Let's face it, the left are complete lunatics and control the (D) party...they'll do more damage to the country than the pandemic alone ever could.
> 
> ...


Don’t know you from Adam but your “all” this and “all” that talk indicates a strictly partisan yahoo. Why do you hate America so much?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 16, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10126


He really does have tiny hands! I thought that was just a sophomoric jab, but it’s true! Lol !


----------



## happy9 (Feb 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> People Who Moved To Texas From California Finally Feeling At Home Now That Power Is Out
> 
> 
> AUSTIN, TX - Thousands of people who escaped the desolate wasteland of California have found new opportunities by moving to Texas. To help them feel right at home, even the weather is extending some Texas hospitality by knocking out power stations-- giving the former Californians a taste of the...
> ...


Ha - literally  just had this conversation with a CA transplant in Austin.


----------



## happy9 (Feb 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is why blue states have been severely lagging in terms of opening schools. Instead of listening to the science, they are beholden to their unions. And here the CDC wants to take that marvelous system nationwide.
> 
> _The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) admitted during a press conference that it based its new school guidelines on science, but also input from teachers and _*stakeholders.*
> 
> ...


Interested in who they classify as stakeholder.  What a shameful group of people.


----------



## crush (Feb 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> He really does have tiny hands! I thought that was just a sophomoric jab, but it’s true! Lol !


I didnt even think about that but it's freaking true.  Close up shot to boot   This guy is a one tough son of a bitch though....lol!


----------



## crush (Feb 16, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Ha - literally  just had this conversation with a CA transplant in Austin.


I would have been killed already if I went with my gut and moved to Texas in April 2020.  You see, I still had high hopes that one day my little player would be noticed by the scouts.  I wanted to prove them all wrong and I felt if we all moved to Texas, we could carry on that mission.  Giesbock was calling us wimps for not going to the Ice Bowl Showcase in Houston


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 16, 2021)

So my LA County kid was disappointed.  They got the word today that because elementary schools are returning, we can use our intervention waivers (for the kids most at need) for 6 & 7 to return in the next couple weeks.  But because of the California cohort and distance requirements, probably only their math class would be live and almost everything else would have to be zoom because they run on a block schedule.  So he'll be sitting in a spaced out classroom (maybe at the high school), on zoom all day, have to be distanced at lunch, have to get himself up out of bed and haul himself there and back, get a weekly COVID test and have to wear the stupid mask all for the privilege of sitting in a classroom without a teacher.   He said no thanks (at least until soccer starts up and then only if they are allowed to scrimmage).  The only other option for the school would be to rejigger everyone's schedule based on their math levels (there are 4) so the teachers would all have to switch but they'd have to get rid of all the electives including languages (which they don't want to do).


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So my LA County kid was disappointed.  They got the word today that because elementary schools are returning, we can use our intervention waivers (for the kids most at need) for 6 & 7 to return in the next couple weeks.  But because of the California cohort and distance requirements, probably only their math class would be live and almost everything else would have to be zoom because they run on a block schedule.  So he'll be sitting in a spaced out classroom (maybe at the high school), on zoom all day, have to be distanced at lunch, have to get himself up out of bed and haul himself there and back, get a weekly COVID test and have to wear the stupid mask all for the privilege of sitting in a classroom without a teacher.   He said no thanks (at least until soccer starts up and then only if they are allowed to scrimmage).  The only other option for the school would be to rejigger everyone's schedule based on their math levels (there are 4) so the teachers would all have to switch but they'd have to get rid of all the electives including languages (which they don't want to do).


p.s. I  don't see how this changes next year unless the rules are radically changed.  I remember when I told you all what the school's plans were for reopening way back in September (before our dear gov  nixed it) and you all compared it to a prison.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> p.s. I  don't see how this changes next year unless the rules are radically changed.  I remember when I told you all what the school's plans were for reopening way back in September (before our dear gov  nixed it) and you all compared it to a prison.


"House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s office pointed out on Tuesday that *nearly all of the $128.6 billion for schools won’t be distributed until after October and over the next few years. His office said 95% would come after fiscal 2022 begins in October.*"









						Democrats would delay school COVID-19 spending, threatening reopening
					

Despite school opening demands from allies of President Biden, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Democratic coronavirus spending plan would delay the bulk of education spending until next year and later, potentially threatening school reopening until 2023, according to a GOP analysis.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 17, 2021)

India’s dramatic fall in COVID-19 cases leaves experts stumped
					

NEW DELHI — When the coronavirus pandemic took hold in India, there were fears it would sink the fragile health system of the world’s second-most populous country. Infections climbed dramatically f…




					nypost.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 17, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> India’s dramatic fall in COVID-19 cases leaves experts stumped
> 
> 
> NEW DELHI — When the coronavirus pandemic took hold in India, there were fears it would sink the fragile health system of the world’s second-most populous country. Infections climbed dramatically f…
> ...


there may be other issues at play but it’s pretty clear tropical areas just behave different than other areas.  India’s has a wave that basically started in April and is only easing up now.  Similar to Brazil.  Might also explain why Florida has been different than the rest of the us. The waves seem to sustain longer but not be sufficiently strong to collapse the fragile medical systems in some of these countries.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 17, 2021)

Serious question- for those of you in LA county, have you thought about moving? I'm not saying it's easy, or should have to be done- but I have trouble understanding why you all are so stuck?? 

Is it a numbers thing? Are you guys jusy that overcrowded that they are too worries to even start a hybrid-type thing??


----------



## crush (Feb 17, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Serious question- for those of you in LA county, have you thought about moving? I'm not saying it's easy, or should have to be done- but I have trouble understanding why you all are so stuck??
> 
> Is it a numbers thing? Are you guys jusy that overcrowded that they are too worries to even start a hybrid-type thing??


I will answer for my friend Sal.  He is stuck in a pressure cooker in LA County.  The sh*t is about to hit hard.  The reason Sal can;t leave is because he has no money saved.  He lost his job last April.  He does get some help to cover food and basic bills.  He told me he wants out of LA but has no money to move to the beautiful state of CO or TX.  You have to have a job lined up, cash in the bank, good credit and first & last months rent.  Not so easy for many like Sal. 
.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 17, 2021)

I just re-read what I typed and wanted to clarify- by me asking why you all are so stuck, I meant why are the powers at be so stuck on being closed? Like what are they needing to move forward?


----------



## crush (Feb 17, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I just re-read what I typed and wanted to clarify- by me asking why you all are so stuck, I meant why are the powers at be so stuck on being closed? Like what are they needing to move forward?


Upgrade hater and you can edit 24/7, anytime you want.  FYI for you.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 17, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I just re-read what I typed and wanted to clarify- by me asking why you all are so stuck, I meant why are the powers at be so stuck on being closed? Like what are they needing to move forward?


It’s the lausd teachers union. They basically control local politics. It’s where the pressure on county health is coming from despite the science...if the entire county is shut parents can’t complain...if the county opens and privates and charters open, lausd is forced into a position it has to act.  La county could have more aggressively allowed elementary waivers to allow privates charters and smaller school districts to open. The slow walked it to protect lausd and then by the time they were ready to consider it numbers were too high to issue waivers


----------



## MicPaPa (Feb 17, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Don’t know you from Adam but your “all” this and “all” that talk indicates a strictly partisan yahoo. Why do you hate America so much?


...pot meet kettle.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s the lausd teachers union. They basically control local politics. It’s where the pressure on county health is coming from despite the science...if the entire county is shut parents can’t complain...if the county opens and privates and charters open, lausd is forced into a position it has to act.  La county could have more aggressively allowed elementary waivers to allow privates charters and smaller school districts to open. The slow walked it to protect lausd and then by the time they were ready to consider it numbers were too high to issue waivers


For once I am grateful I'm in Norcal! That is awful.


----------



## watfly (Feb 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s the lausd teachers union. They basically control local politics. It’s where the pressure on county health is coming from despite the science...if the entire county is shut parents can’t complain...if the county opens and privates and charters open, lausd is forced into a position it has to act.  La county could have more aggressively allowed elementary waivers to allow privates charters and smaller school districts to open. The slow walked it to protect lausd and then by the time they were ready to consider it numbers were too high to issue waivers


I visited a buddy last month in LA.  Its been a number of years since I've driven through LA, as opposed to around it.  I was appalled by the deterioration of the City in just a few years.  The stretch of LA from Hollywood on the 101 south to the 5 looked worse than a 3rd world country with trash and tents and makeshift dwellings.   It's disgusting how Garcetti has allowed the City to fall apart.  The LAUSD may be controlling the the closures but Garcetti is destroying the City....sad.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 17, 2021)

watfly said:


> I visited a buddy last month in LA.  Its been a number of years since I've driven through LA, as opposed to around it.  I was appalled by the deterioration of the City in just a few years.  The stretch of LA from Hollywood on the 101 south to the 5 looked worse than a 3rd world country with trash and tents and makeshift dwellings.   It's disgusting how Garcetti has allowed the City to fall apart.  The LAUSD may be controlling the the closures but Garcetti is destroying the City....sad.


Yeah, some of the Hollywood Bowl/commuter parking lots have become big tent cities.  It tells me the County doesn't think the Hollywood Bowl will be starting up any time in the near future or they'd be worried on how to get all those people out.  Even more surprising, these parking lots are across the street from some boutiquey tourist hotels which are already suffering all the attractions being shut.  I'm sure they aren't happy because no guest wants to wake up and have a view of a tent city.


----------



## watfly (Feb 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, some of the Hollywood Bowl/commuter parking lots have become big tent cities.  It tells me the County doesn't think the Hollywood Bowl will be starting up any time in the near future or they'd be worried on how to get all those people out.  Even more surprising, these parking lots are across the street from some boutiquey tourist hotels which are already suffering all the attractions being shut.  I'm sure they aren't happy because no guest wants to wake up and have a view of a tent city.


In Hollywood there was quite a number of businesses just boarded up.  Apparently due in part to the previous riots.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 17, 2021)

watfly said:


> The LAUSD may be controlling the the closures but Garcetti is destroying the City....sad.


This is what happens when you have a one party state. There is no effective break on what politicians do. As a one party state you are getting people in with further and further leftist ideas/ideals. What you are seeing is a result of what happens when these people are in charge.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 17, 2021)

watfly said:


> I visited a buddy last month in LA.  Its been a number of years since I've driven through LA, as opposed to around it.  I was appalled by the deterioration of the City in just a few years.  The stretch of LA from Hollywood on the 101 south to the 5 looked worse than a 3rd world country with trash and tents and makeshift dwellings.   It's disgusting how Garcetti has allowed the City to fall apart.  The LAUSD may be controlling the the closures but Garcetti is destroying the City....sad.


LA has always been a pit.


Desert Hound said:


> This is what happens when you have a one party state. There is no effective break on what politicians do. As a one party state you are getting people in with further and further leftist ideas/ideals. What you are seeing is a result of what happens when these people are in charge.


Have you ever been to the South? Maybe Florida? Yeah the gentrified spots can ok, but don’t take a wrong turn. This isn’t a partisan problem it’s a multi-dimensional problem. I realize simplicity is easier, but doesn’t tell the real story.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 17, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> LA has always been a pit.


This isn't entirely true.  The Hollywood area used to be very nice in the 60s.  Then, in the 70s it started to go down hill and got really ugly.  In the 90s though it started to reverse itself.  Then Hollywood and Highland opened up, as did the new theatre complex, a few revitalized hotels and the Kimmel theatre and it actually became a very nice area to visit....still a city environment and you still got accosted by all those character performers operating without a license, but still it was some place you could go with your family.  Now it's just gross again.


----------



## watfly (Feb 17, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> LA has always been a pit.
> 
> Have you ever been to the South? Maybe Florida? Yeah the gentrified spots can ok, but don’t take a wrong turn. This isn’t a partisan problem it’s a multi-dimensional problem. I realize simplicity is easier, but doesn’t tell the real story.


Yes, LA has always had its bad areas.  However, LA east of downtown had been revitalized to a large extent and now its a pit again.

I also agree that its a multi-dimensional problem, but some once proud cities are being destroyed by certain PC and identity based policies.  These policies are accelerating and spreading the decline.  San Francisco is a prime example.  Look at NY pre Giuliani and now under DeBlasio, disgraceful compared to when it was being governed by Giuliani (who unfortunately has completely lost his marbles).


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This isn't entirely true.  The Hollywood area used to be very nice in the 60s.  Then, in the 70s it started to go down hill and got really ugly.  In the 90s though it started to reverse itself.  Then Hollywood and Highland opened up, as did the new theatre complex, a few revitalized hotels and the Kimmel theatre and it actually became a very nice area to visit....still a city environment and you still got accosted by all those character performers operating without a license, but still it was some place you could go with your family.  Now it's just gross again.


TJ has had periods of being tolerable as well.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 17, 2021)

Pressure is mounting....









						Editorial: L.A. Unified is officially out of excuses for keeping elementary schools closed
					

County officials say COVID-19 rates are low enough to reopen elementary schools. It is an outrage for L.A. Unified to delay any longer.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 17, 2021)

Reining in the Chicago Teachers Union | City Journal
					

The teachers’ union’s outsize power comes at the expense of students, parents, and taxpayers.




					www.city-journal.org


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 17, 2021)

If they can go to in person learning, why can't out kids?


----------



## happy9 (Feb 17, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> If they can go to in person learning, why can't out kids?
> 
> View attachment 10151


Ooops, too much poppy in their tea.  Degrades their ability to mix and measure


----------



## watfly (Feb 17, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> If they can go to in person learning, why can't out kids?
> 
> View attachment 10151


Gotta love it when natural selection takes over.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 17, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> LA has always been a pit.
> 
> Have you ever been to the South? Maybe Florida? Yeah the gentrified spots can ok, but don’t take a wrong turn. This isn’t a partisan problem it’s a multi-dimensional problem. I realize simplicity is easier, but doesn’t tell the real story.


Yah...grew up there.  Lived in Jackson, Mississippi for a while. Some real sweet spots all up and down the southern states.  

Still nothing like what I see downtown everyday. 

Some under reported news is the skyrocketing violent crime rate.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Feb 17, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Yah...grew up there.  Lived in Jackson, Mississippi for a while. Some real sweet spots all up and down the southern states.
> 
> Still nothing like what I see downtown everyday.
> 
> Some under reported news is the skyrocketing violent crime rate.


Wait, what! Jackson? Mississippi?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 17, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> Wait, what! Jackson? Mississippi?


Saw BB King jam with the house band at an underground spot in the shotgun district.  One of the more memorable accidental encounters in my life.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Feb 17, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Saw BB King jam with the house band at an underground spot in the shotgun district.  One of the more memorable accidental encounters in my life.


Who knew. Okay......


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 19, 2021)

Read on the Twitter that 1/3 of the military and 40% of California health care workers have refused the vaccine. Anyone have verification?  If true that just goes to the boneheadedness of the cdc policy: get your vaccine and continue to lockdown (I think Biden said for a year in the cnn townhall).  Given the experimental nature of the vaccine (and inability therefore to mandate), the unpleasant side effects in younger people, and the relative lack of risk in young people, the best way to sell this would be the quickest return to normal possible. Instead we get the new cdc tiers that say no return to normal in schools even after teachers vaccinated.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 19, 2021)

Email Records Revealed: How Teachers Unions Are Fighting to Keep Virginia Schools Shuttered | National Review
					

Documents obtained by NR show the unions have engaged in an intense pressure campaign to influence Democratic state lawmakers.




					www.nationalreview.com


----------



## happy9 (Feb 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Read on the Twitter that *1/3 of the military* and 40% of California health care workers have refused the vaccine. Anyone have verification?  If true that just goes to the boneheadedness of the cdc policy: get your vaccine and continue to lockdown (I think Biden said for a year in the cnn townhall).  Given the experimental nature of the vaccine (and inability therefore to mandate), the unpleasant side effects in younger people, and the relative lack of risk in young people, the best way to sell this would be the quickest return to normal possible. Instead we get the new cdc tiers that say no return to normal in schools even after teachers vaccinated.


Fact


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 19, 2021)

"Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity."









						Opinion | We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
					

Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## espola (Feb 19, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Fact


When I was in the military, we didn't have an option, although some people were excused for certain allergies.  The worst day in boot camp was one in each cheek and one in each arm.  

On second thought, that wasn't the worst day.  The next day was.


----------



## happy9 (Feb 19, 2021)

espola said:


> When I was in the military, we didn't have an option, although some people were excused for certain allergies.  The worst day in boot camp was one in each cheek and one in each arm.
> 
> On second thought, that wasn't the worst day.  The next day was.


you are right, and it's curious that this is being allowed.  Certain vaccines are considered a requirement in order to be deployable.  Not being deployable eventually leads down the chapter road.  Wonder if this vaccine is not being considered a deployment requirement.  I will ask some people.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 19, 2021)

happy9 said:


> you are right, and it's curious that this is being allowed.  Certain vaccines are considered a requirement in order to be deployable.  Not being deployable eventually leads down the chapter road.  Wonder if this vaccine is not being considered a deployment requirement.  I will ask some people.


It maybe because it's only Emergency Use authorized.  It's the reason hospitals haven't been able to mandate their workers to get it.  It's still considered "experimental" so the employer is liable if they force it on someone and they have a side effect.


----------



## espola (Feb 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It maybe because it's only Emergency Use authorized.  It's the reason hospitals haven't been able to mandate their workers to get it.  It's still considered "experimental" so the employer is liable if they force it on someone and they have a side effect.


"Listen up, grunts.  We are all going to get in this helicopter headed for a landing zone within range of an enemy position.  If any of you don't want to go, just step off to the side there."


----------



## happy9 (Feb 19, 2021)

espola said:


> "Listen up, grunts.  We are all going to get in this helicopter headed for a landing zone within range of an enemy position.  If any of you don't want to go, just step off to the side there."


Oh how times have changed.


----------



## espola (Feb 19, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Oh how times have changed.


Another boot camp memory -- we were asked to "volunteer" blood donations.  Every man went.  When we got to the hospital, they let the one guy in the company who wanted to be a corpsman help out - getting him used to the sight of blood, I guess.  We had to march over there, but they gave us a bus ride back to the barracks.


----------



## happy9 (Feb 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Another boot camp memory -- we were asked to "volunteer" blood donations.  Every man went.  When we got to the hospital, they let the one guy in the company who wanted to be a corpsman help out - getting him used to the sight of blood, I guess.  We had to march over there, but they gave us a bus ride back to the barracks.


IV practice dummy was always fun.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 19, 2021)

San Francisco schools are unlikely to reopen fully next fall.  I'm hearing the same thing about LAUSD.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1362875813520044032


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> San Francisco schools are unlikely to reopen fully next fall.  I'm hearing the same thing about LAUSD.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1362875813520044032


Terrible for kids in those areas. Look at the chart below.


----------



## crush (Feb 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Another boot camp memory -- we were asked to "volunteer" blood donations.  Every man went.  When we got to the hospital, they let the one guy in the company who wanted to be a corpsman help out - getting him used to the sight of blood, I guess.  We had to march over there, but they gave us a bus ride back to the barracks.


One of my foster care brothers was station in Frankfurt Germany.  He dealt with Ammo.  Well, one night he and his pals were out drinking and well, things got out of hand.  MP showed up and my bro punched one of them.  Not good to pull that stunt in 88'  He got the boot and slept in his car for year and then got his shit together and has found a nice life in Kauai for over 30 years.  He was dealt no cards at the poker table when he came to the planet.  I would love to share his adoption story and his near death experience he endured before he was born.  Espola, this is real life & death and this planet loves life  Thanks for serving btw


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 20, 2021)

It looks like a third wave has begun in Scandinavia in Sweden Norway and Finland. Interestingly Norway has been spared the brunt of this until now and even exhausted Sweden is talking California style partial lockdowns.  It’s unclear why this is happening when the rest of the world (including Alaska Iceland and Canada) are in decline.  Interestingly Sweden’s excess mortality for all 2020 was rather low (8000 or so) and it would have been lower but for their nursing home covid fiasco which was similar to New York. Peru and Brazil are also on the rise. Peru has had the worst of both worlds: prolonged strict lockdowns that have left people starving and strong waves relative to the population.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Gotta love it when natural selection takes over.


Darwin Award Candidate for the category. "Who Says You Go Out of this World Alone?"


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It maybe because it's only Emergency Use authorized.  It's the reason hospitals haven't been able to mandate their workers to get it.  It's still considered "experimental" so the employer is liable if they force it on someone and they have a side effect.


Yes, I heard/read this recently - forget where.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Read on the Twitter that 1/3 of the military and 40% of California health care workers have refused the vaccine. Anyone have verification?  If true that just goes to the boneheadedness of the cdc policy: get your vaccine and continue to lockdown (I think Biden said for a year in the cnn townhall).  Given the experimental nature of the vaccine (and inability therefore to mandate), the unpleasant side effects in younger people, and the relative lack of risk in young people, the best way to sell this would be the quickest return to normal possible. Instead we get the new cdc tiers that say no return to normal in schools even after teachers vaccinated.


The 40% of health care workers is pretty crazy if true. Below from NYTimes supports this.

***

The federal program used a formula that turned out to significantly overestimate how many shots would be needed for long-term care facilities like nursing homes, whose residents are particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus. And another problem arose: A considerable number of residents and, especially, workers at the facilities are turning down the chance to be vaccinated.

A study released Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that in the first month of the program, 77.8 percent of residents and 37.5 percent of workers received the vaccine at the average long-term care facility. The study says the true rate for workers may be higher because some may have been vaccinated in other settings. But, even so, federal officials are particularly concerned about how many workers are refusing inoculation, and have been stepping up efforts to change their minds.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Read on the Twitter that 1/3 of the military and 40% of California health care workers have refused the vaccine. Anyone have verification?  If true that just goes to the boneheadedness of the cdc policy: get your vaccine and continue to lockdown (I think Biden said for a year in the cnn townhall).  Given the experimental nature of the vaccine (and inability therefore to mandate), the unpleasant side effects in younger people, and the relative lack of risk in young people, the best way to sell this would be the quickest return to normal possible. Instead we get the new cdc tiers that say no return to normal in schools even after teachers vaccinated.


Here's the other thing I am thinking. By sometime in May, we may be getting the point of running out of willing and qualified (no children) people to get their first shot (first shot, not both). I'm guessing somewhere around 15% of the population is too young for the current vaccines (under 18 or 16). I'll round it to 13% to make the remaining population eligible for the vaccine to be 87%. Two-thirds of that is 58% of the US population. Based on surveys and what you note above, this may be optimistic unless many people change their minds. It will take a considerable acceleration in the pace of first shots to get there by May, but two things are working toward that end. We have some good news about the supply ramping up considerably as well as improvements in the distribution and delivery of shots (see Bloomberg below). The other possibility is that the 2nd dose is delayed - up to 12 weeks instead of 4. That would speed the "first shots" considerably. I wouldn't be surprised if my April (maybe earlier), assuming the vaccine pipeline and ability to give shots grows as expected, we spend the month only giving "first shots". By Aprile, we will have more data to determine if a delay is a good idea and allow us to determine if we feel confident the supply will be able to be delivered in time for the delayed 2nd shots.

We are at about 0.5% shots per day. Raising that 50% (as projected) and solely allocating to "first-shots" would take care of 22% in April alone. With some growth in March, we could be near 50% first shots by the end of April.

First Shot
Current: 13%
End of Feb: (15%) (about 1/3% per day)
End of March: (27%) - 12% in the month with growth from 1/3% per day (10%) to 1/2% per day (15%)
End of April: (49%) using 3/4% per day results in 22% in the month









						A U.S. Vaccine Surge Is Coming, With Millions of Doses Promised
					

New supplies should help the pace of vaccinations double in coming weeks




					www.bloomberg.com
				












						Is It Safe to Delay a Second COVID Vaccine Dose?
					

Some evidence indicates that short waits are safe, but there is a chance that partial immunization could help risky new coronavirus variants to develop




					www.scientificamerican.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ok, 2 weeks down: 4 to 12 weeks out now.
> 
> “The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
> 
> “You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher —  450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”


Ok, 3 weeks down: 3 to 11 weeks out now. If he thought it was a nice, blue sky 3 weeks ago, he hasn't seen anything yet.

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.

“You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher — 450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ok, 3 weeks down: 3 to 11 weeks out now. If he thought it was a nice, blue sky 3 weeks ago, he hasn't seen anything yet.
> 
> “The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
> 
> “You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher — 450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”


To some extent I think osterholm is just a hysteric. There’s some evidence to float around for a potential 3rd wave but it shouldn’t nearly be as bad particularly as the elderly and higher risk should be vaccinated with at least the first dose before it begins to take off.  For the younger people I agree they should be spacing out the first shots and where’s the j&j shot??  Fall has me worried though given the time for s Africa and other variants to mutate


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> To some extent I think osterholm is just a hysteric. There’s some evidence to float around for a potential 3rd wave but it shouldn’t nearly be as bad particularly as the elderly and higher risk should be vaccinated with at least the first dose before it begins to take off.  For the younger people I agree they should be spacing out the first shots and where’s the j&j shot??  Fall has me worried though given the time for s Africa and other variants to mutate


Also the estimate is in Los Angeles at least 1/3 of us have had it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 22, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1363703453277691904


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 22, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1363611596837257234


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 22, 2021)

Megan McCain turned was one of the pro-lockdowners at the beginning of all this, bordering on hysterical at first (she was pregnant when this all started to go down).  Very critical of the Trump admin's handling of this at the beginning and a defender of Fauci.  If Fauci's lost Megan McCain it's quite an accomplishment.









						Meghan McCain calls for Biden to remove Fauci
					

Meghan McCain on Monday called for Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, to be fired, blaming him for “inconsistent messaging” regarding the distribution of coronavirus v…




					thehill.com


----------



## espola (Feb 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Megan McCain turned was one of the pro-lockdowners at the beginning of all this, bordering on hysterical at first (she was pregnant when this all started to go down).  Very critical of the Trump admin's handling of this at the beginning and a defender of Fauci.  If Fauci's lost Megan McCain it's quite an accomplishment.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"remove him and put someone else in place that maybe does understand science"?  Maybe you can help her find someone.


----------



## espola (Feb 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Megan McCain turned was one of the pro-lockdowners at the beginning of all this, bordering on hysterical at first (she was pregnant when this all started to go down).  Very critical of the Trump admin's handling of this at the beginning and a defender of Fauci.  If Fauci's lost Megan McCain it's quite an accomplishment.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


MMcC last April, supporting Rand Paul's anti-lockdown stance, quoted in Fox News --

"I think there has to be more than just we're locking down the country for the foreseeable future."


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 22, 2021)

espola said:


> "remove him and put someone else in place that maybe does understand science"?  Maybe you can help her find someone.


Well, I think even you could have done a better job.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 22, 2021)

espola said:


> MMcC last April, supporting Rand Paul's anti-lockdown stance, quoted in Fox News --
> 
> "I think there has to be more than just we're locking down the country for the foreseeable future."


Yeah, she said the country can't stay lockdown for ever, which you know, she was right.  I also believe that was May, but could be wrong about that.  She was also one of the first to flee the set of the view and in March was furiously scolding Arizonians and Floridians for not social distancing while the hospital system was melting down in New York.  She also at one point of Rand Paul said "I hate him" back a few years back.


----------



## espola (Feb 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, she said the country can't stay lockdown for ever, which you know, she was right.  I also believe that was May, but could be wrong about that.  She was also one of the first to flee the set of the view and in March was furiously scolding Arizonians and Floridians for not social distancing while the hospital system was melting down in New York.  She also at one point of Rand Paul said "I hate him" back a few years back.


That's right, May.  Thank you for correcting me.


----------



## crush (Feb 23, 2021)

More from Doc F

Senior White House CoVID advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci threw *more cold-water on Americans looking to return to normal life* this week; saying even those vaccinated twice should avoid restaurants and movie theaters.

“There are things, *even if you’re vaccinated*, that you’re not going to be able to do in society,” Fauci said on Monday during a White House COVID-19 press briefing. “For example, indoor dining, theaters, places where people congregate. That’s because of the safety of society.”

“*We hope* that when the* data comes* in, it’s going to show that the virus level is quite low and you’re not transmitting it,” Fauci said, adding: “We don’t know that now. And for that reason, we want to make sure that people *continue to wear masks despite the fact that they’re vaccinated.”*


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 23, 2021)

Schools Are Opening — Except On The Left Coast And In The Swamp
					

Outside of the educational hellholes of the West Coast and the DC metro area, the rest of the country is opening schools.




					issuesinsights.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 23, 2021)

crush said:


> “There are things, *even if you’re vaccinated*, that you’re not going to be able to do in society,” Fauci said on Monday during a White House COVID-19 press briefing. “For example, indoor dining, theaters, places where people congregate. That’s because of the safety of society.”


Absolutely crazy. They want to give you the vaccine and then have everyone pretend they are still at risk and as such can't do this or that. 

There will be enough states/places that will go through with variations of this. 

States that still don't have schools open now? Bank on them playing the dog and pony show next year with all kinds of "safety" protocols in place in and around schools and youth sports. 

You know at some point people have to say enough is enough to this gov overreach. 

We need a new version of the Gadsden Flag to let them know we just want to live our lives without nonsensical rules.


----------



## crush (Feb 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Absolutely crazy. They want to give you the vaccine and then have everyone pretend they are still at risk and as such can't do this or that.
> 
> There will be enough states/places that will go through with variations of this.
> 
> ...


Telling the truth is not good enough hound.  You need to show them the truth.  Truth hurts too and when its slapped in someone's face like a Doc, they still deny the truth and keep lying.  You know why?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Absolutely crazy. They want to give you the vaccine and then have everyone pretend they are still at risk and as such can't do this or that.
> 
> There will be enough states/places that will go through with variations of this.
> 
> ...


Well, the only bright side on this is the push back has been very severe and has been across the political spectrum and not just the hard core antilockdowners.  Like I said before, if the Biden admin has lost their dear friend Megan McCain, they aren't reading the room very well.

Apparently, Fauci is giving us soon "firm recommendations" on what vaccinated people can and can't do.  Anyone want to bet which list is longer?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364208552118804480


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well, the only bright side on this is the push back has been very severe and has been across the political spectrum and not just the hard core antilockdowners.  Like I said before, if the Biden admin has lost their dear friend Megan McCain, they aren't reading the room very well.
> 
> Apparently, Fauci is giving us soon "firm recommendations" on what vaccinated people can and can't do.  Anyone want to bet which list is longer?
> 
> ...


Supposedly vaccinated people aren't supposed to do indoor dining or go to theatres yet.  If it includes not hugging grandma after a year, I think they are going to have a full scale "just ignore them" reaction on their hands.









						Fauci: Vaccinated people shouldn't dine indoors or go to the theater quite yet
					

It may become safe to gather indoors again as more people get vaccinated and as coronavirus cases drop further, Dr. Anthony Fauci said.




					www.businessinsider.in


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Supposedly vaccinated people aren't supposed to do indoor dining or go to theatres yet.  If it includes not hugging grandma after a year, I think they are going to have a full scale "just ignore them" reaction on their hands.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If you get a vaccine but still cant do things, what is the point? 

It is like we are stuck in the Twilight Zone with some of these idiots.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well, the only bright side on this is the push back has been very severe and has been across the political spectrum and not just the hard core antilockdowners.


It is going to be an uphill battle in many areas. 

Consider the fact that the school board in SF has ONLY just started talking about possibly re-opening. After a year they are just getting around to it. They were however very busy voting on changing the names of schools of controversial figures such as Abe Lincoln and Paul Revere to name a few. 

And variations of that mindset still pervade areas as in schools still not being open and making excuses as to why.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 23, 2021)

Apparently we have Fauci to thank in part for the California winter lockdowns.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364298847803953157


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 23, 2021)

An article re the Los Angeles variant.  Guess the world needs to isolate California from the rest of the world.....









						Coronavirus variant first seen in Los Angeles has spread around the world
					

Coronavirus variant first seen in L.A. now accounts for about half of Southern California's infections and has spread to 18 states and six countries.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> An article re the Los Angeles variant.  Guess the world needs to isolate California from the rest of the world.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm (obviously) no virologist but with the ability people have to freely come and go between states, this has to be of no surprise to people, right? I almost wish they'd shutup about all the new variants!


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 23, 2021)

"Vaccine trials measure how many people get infected after vaccination. Take for example the Moderna vaccine trial, published in the New England Journal of Medicine beginning in November with follow-up publications extending through February. In that trial they randomized 15,210 people to the vaccine and 15,210 people to placebo. Of those who got the placebo, 185 developed COVID-19. Therefore, 1.2% got COVID-19. Thirty of those became very ill. Of those who got the vaccine, 11 developed COVID-19. None of them got very ill. *Therefore, 0.07% got COVID-19. So, the vaccine was effective: it prevented illness and it prevented serious illness."*
-
"Another way to approach this issue of whether the vaccine prevents spread is to consider what happens with other vaccines. When we give the flu vaccine do we find that those who get the vaccine contract the flu and *pass it on to others at a clinically significant rate? The answer is no. Can it happen? The answer is yes.* The flu vaccine, like the COVID-19 vaccine, is not perfect. But it is highly effective. The same holds for the smallpox vaccine (smallpox is now obliterated from the planet by vaccination), the polio vaccine, and others. Even when vaccines are not perfect they can be highly effective. *Therefore, to harp on the rare possibility of spreading COVID-19 after vaccination is to focus on what is unlikely to happen rather than to focus on what is likely to happen — that it will work very well."









						Op-Ed: Stop Stressing Post-Vax Risk of Spreading Coronavirus
					

Why give people another reason to avoid vaccination?




					www.medpagetoday.com
				



*


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 24, 2021)

crush said:


> More from Doc F
> 
> Senior White House CoVID advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci threw *more cold-water on Americans looking to return to normal life* this week; saying even those vaccinated twice should avoid restaurants and movie theaters.
> 
> ...


He needs to read the NY Times article I just posted in the Good News Thread.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> If you get a vaccine but still cant do things, what is the point?
> 
> It is like we are stuck in the Twilight Zone with some of these idiots.


I fully expected the following.
Vaccinated: Wear a mask
Not Vaccinated: Wear two masks.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 24, 2021)

I’m not one of the worlds leading immunologist but I play one on a youth soccer sub-forum!


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I fully expected the following.
> Vaccinated: Wear a mask
> Not Vaccinated: Wear two masks.


Think about what we are hearing from Fauci and others. 

If people are vaccinated can we do the following?

Stop social distancing? No

Can we travel like we did before? No

Can restaurants and bars go back to normal? No

Are we safe? We don't know

Can we still spread the disease? We don't know

And so on. 

So what is the point?

Watch the idiotic rules/procedures they keep or put in place long after this is over. 

By the way...the latest is hey there are variants popping up. We just don't know what MIGHT happen with the new ones.

My response? Live life. The flu has variants come around every year. I suspect covid will constantly mutate as well. We cannot keep on living in fear of what MIGHT be.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

By the way this is why @dad4 and other pro lock downers don't write much in this thread anymore. The facts on the ground have disproven their long running arguments.

From NPR.

“In late fall, we saw this horrible surge that grew even worse after Thanksgiving. …. this sustained, horrible surge of infections, the worst in the nation, for many weeks after the second lockdown was ordered. And the fact is, California’s deaths per capita numbers, which, you know, officials have used throughout the pandemic to defend these very tough restrictions, *are in many cases either the same or worse than many states that have been far less restrictive*.”

--


“Florida has had fewer cases per capita than California."

--

“(FLORIDA) Unemployment’s below the national average. Consumer spending, judged by sales tax collections, is nearly back. Tourism is, of course, still way down. But there are signs that even that’s ready to rebound.”


----------



## crush (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way this is why @dad4 and other pro lock downers don't write much in this thread anymore. The facts on the ground have disproven their long running arguments.
> 
> From NPR.
> 
> ...


You beat Dad bro, good job.  I watched you kick his ass for 12 months.  He lost all the debates and his math is full of shit and he knows it.  At least when I lose a argument, I admit it.


----------



## whatithink (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Can we still spread the disease? We don't know


The answer to that appears to be because not enough research and testing has been done on it, which is probably not unreasonable as the immediate goal was a working vaccine, which happened in a record amount of time and with extraordinarily high success rates.

Here's an article from MIT on the vaccines & transmission. Herd immunity via infections and vaccinations are the key, but if vaccines don't prevent transmissions then that's a problem.

_"But if vaccinated people are “leaky”—if they can still spread the virus sometimes—the threshold will rise. In fact, according to basic outbreak math, if the vaccine stops anything less than two-thirds of transmission events, it’s impossible to reach herd immunity at all. And that’s not even considering that many people will refuse the vaccine, nor mounting evidence that immunity may not last against new variants of the virus."_

There's a quote which points to the inconsistent messaging - mainly because they don't yet know if vaccinations will prevent transmissions.

_"Jody Lanard, a medical risk communicator who has worked with the World Health Organization, says until questions about vaccine transmission are answered, public health officials will likely send out contradictory messages. On the one hand, she says, exhorting people to “keep wearing a mask” implies that a vaccinated person can still transmit the virus. At the same time, encouraging everyone to get vaccinated, even those who are not in a high-risk group, “leans heavily on the notion that transmission will likely be reduced by vaccination.” _

Can I still infect people with covid if I’ve been vaccinated? | MIT Technology Review


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way this is why @dad4 and other pro lock downers don't write much in this thread anymore. The facts on the ground have disproven their long running arguments.
> 
> From NPR.
> 
> ...


No point in writing when the argument stalls out at the same point every time.

Hound: FL and TX have similar case counts to CA.
Dad4: yes, because the housing setup in CA promotes the spread of disease. 
Hound: <crickets>
Dad4: would you like to talk about pro-restriction states other than Southern CA?  Or the death rate in AZ?
Hound: <crickets>

You have one argument.  It applies to only one state, and only half of that one.  It completely falls apart as soon as you try to talk about Oregon, Washington, Northern CA, Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No point in writing when the argument stalls out at the same point every time.
> 
> Hound: FL and TX have similar case counts to CA.
> Dad4: yes, because the housing setup in CA promotes the spread of disease.
> ...


In fairness, once you start distinguishing it gets hard to make comparisons.  You have to throw out Arizona too given the issues with the Native American counties and the border counties.  Nevada has to be thrown out due to the casinos being opened.  You can still salvage a comparison....NorCal v. Utah.....Washington (excluding Seattle) v. Wyoming.....but it gets trickier.

Pretty much the main thing that your rebuttal shows is that besides seasonality, population density is a major driver of infection rates.  I totally agree with that.   Unfortunately, though, there's not much governments can do by way of that quickly once the pandemic hits.  That factor, like the seasonality, is sort of baked in.  Yes, it serves as an explanation for why SoCal did so bad.  But no, it does not serve as an excuse for why California's NPIs did not work, given the tremendous costs which wasn't accounted for (particularly when it comes to children).  If we are going to pay the price that we did for the NPIs, given the enormous cost, they should have worked better (and there's not a whole lot of proof out there that given the density issue they actually saved that many lives....I'm sure they did some).


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In fairness, once you start distinguishing it gets hard to make comparisons.  You have to throw out Arizona too given the issues with the Native American counties and the border counties.  Nevada has to be thrown out due to the casinos being opened.  You can still salvage a comparison....NorCal v. Utah.....Washington (excluding Seattle) v. Wyoming.....but it gets trickier.
> 
> Pretty much the main thing that your rebuttal shows is that besides seasonality, population density is a major driver of infection rates.  I totally agree with that.   Unfortunately, though, there's not much governments can do by way of that quickly once the pandemic hits.  That factor, like the seasonality, is sort of baked in.  Yes, it serves as an explanation for why SoCal did so bad.  But no, it does not serve as an excuse for why California's NPIs did not work, given the tremendous costs which wasn't accounted for (particularly when it comes to children).  If we are going to pay the price that we did for the NPIs, given the enormous cost, they should have worked better (and there's not a whole lot of proof out there that given the density issue they actually saved that many lives....I'm sure they did some).


If lockdowns and masks worked, we would see stark differences between strict and non strict states in this sense. 

We just do not. 

Utah at deaths per million does better vs WA and worse vs OR. But looking at all 3 they are very close....despite having very different policies in place. 

Looking again at FL/TX/CA you are talking 90 million people in those states. Those are large enough numbers where if lockdowns and masks did work, we would expect to see the results show up in the data. We don't.

TX/FL have about 50 million people. CA has 40 million. Kids have been in school, people going to restaurants/bars, etc in 2 of those states. Things @dad4 and others have told us are very bad things and needlessly help to spread the virus.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It completely falls apart as soon as you try to talk about Oregon, Washington, Northern CA, Idaho, Nevada, and Arizona.


It doesn't actually. 

Compare OR/WA vs Utah. Look at the deaths per millions. Not much difference. What did OR/WA gain vs Utah? 

Look at most other western states vs CA. Most of those states have been open and have outcomes rather similar to CA. Their kids have been going to school in person. Biz has been open, etc. Hell even CA has been creeping up on NV deaths per millions. 1592 vs 1262. I don't look at that number and think to myself yep killing off biz and keeping almost all kids out of school did the trick.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It doesn't actually.
> 
> Compare OR/WA vs Utah. Look at the deaths per millions. Not much difference. What did OR/WA gain vs Utah?
> 
> Look at most other western states vs CA. Most of those states have been open and have outcomes rather similar to CA. Their kids have been going to school in person. Biz has been open, etc. Hell even CA has been creeping up on NV deaths per millions. 1592 vs 1262. I don't look at that number and think to myself yep killing off biz and keeping almost all kids out of school did the trick.


Ok.  deaths per million residents in the west:
*AZ 2150
SD 2106
ND 1890*
NM 1738
KS 1596
NV 1592
TX 1477
CA 1262
MT 1261
OK 1078
NE 1060
ID 1030
*WA 650
UT 582
OR 513*


Looks like we should ask what WA, UT, and OR did right.  We should also ask what AZ, ND, SD did wrong.

Don’t forget to include alcohol when you think about it.  UT is a weird place for booze.  The low case rate in UT may have something to do with fewer people going to bars or drinking at each others homes.  Per capita alcohol consumption in UT is about half what it is in Oregon or Washington.  The total number of bars is also restricted by state law, as are the hours.  

Seems to be a pretty strong case for closing bars and restaurants.  All three of the best records in the west were is states with some kind of restriction on bars and restaurants.    All three of the worst records in the west were in states with bars and restaurants open.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ok.  deaths per million residents in the west:
> *AZ 2150
> SD 2106
> ND 1890*
> ...


My experience with Utah was only late July-September, but I can tell you: a) they weren't wearing masks on the streets....pretty good about wearing masks indoors in markets and medical waiting room, b) the restaurants there (including indoor dining which shocked us) were busy...there is a pretty big restaurant culture there including the burbs....from Park City/Salt Lake where you see the high end restaurants, to the burbs where you saw busy chain restaurants popular in California in the 90s like Applebees and Olive Garden type restaurants, c) worship and other life was carrying on as normal and people weren't simply scared out of their minds like they were in California at the time.  Yes, booze is a weird thing, but interestingly the use is spread with places like Park City and Salt Lake having numerous bars and places like Ogden not so much.  Somebody could actually construct a study that would show the impact of bars on pandemics....compare the zip codes with a large incidence of bars against those that were totally dry...the one caveat though is it might also mirror population density as the more dense places have a tendency to run more wet than dry.   And while the population does not tend to gather indoors at bars, they do at other people's houses to socialize and at church and temple for worship (you don't need to be drunk to socialize in Utah). Things might have changed in October after we left there.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My experience with Utah was only late July-September, but I can tell you: a) they weren't wearing masks on the streets....pretty good about wearing masks indoors in markets and medical waiting room, b) the restaurants there (including indoor dining which shocked us) were busy...there is a pretty big restaurant culture there including the burbs....from Park City/Salt Lake where you see the high end restaurants, to the burbs where you saw busy chain restaurants popular in California in the 90s like Applebees and Olive Garden type restaurants, c) worship and other life was carrying on as normal and people weren't simply scared out of their minds like they were in California at the time.  Yes, booze is a weird thing, but interestingly the use is spread with places like Park City and Salt Lake having numerous bars and places like Ogden not so much.  Somebody could actually construct a study that would show the impact of bars on pandemics....compare the zip codes with a large incidence of bars against those that were totally dry...the one caveat though is it might also mirror population density as the more dense places have a tendency to run more wet than dry.   And while the population does not tend to gather indoors at bars, they do at other people's houses to socialize and at church and temple for worship (you don't need to be drunk to socialize in Utah). Things might have changed in October after we left there.


p.s. It's interesting Utah, Oregon, Washington all behaved similarly.  All states roughly the same size and each having 1 large city and several mid size cities.  Most housing is single family homes.  My completely speculative guess is in Utah probably, more than the bars, the factor that is going on is their conscientiousness.  People from Utah really look out for each other.  Our next door neighbors, for example, who we'd only known for a couple weeks offered to watch my boys overnight in the event I needed to be hospitalized overnight for some tests.  I think part of what was happening in Utah is that if someone felt sick, I don't think they were going to temple/church for fear of contaminating others.

The other monkey wrench in your figures is New Mexico....had one of the harder lockdowns in the west and quarantine periods for travel yet it still got the result that it got....partially its due to the outbreak in the Navajo nation, but still the NPIs didn't work as well as hoped.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

There's also this gem.....









						Hundreds Of Additional Covid-19 Deaths Have Gone Unreported In LA Since December, Officials Announce
					

A Los Angeles County Public Health official revealed on Wednesday that 806 deaths related to Covid-19 went unrecorded due to an overwhelming volume of the public death report forms used to track ca…




					deadline.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> All three of the best records in the west were is states with some kind of restriction on bars and restaurants.


Not true. Utah was open. When I was sitting here in AZ with restaurants and bars closed, my friends in Utah were sending me texts of them dining out, going to the bar, etc.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

I had to go find some of the photos.

This is from May 8, 2020 in Utah.

At this time for example, you couldn't dine in or outside at any restaurant or go to any bar in AZ.

Notice all the mask wearing. They never shut down.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Think about what we are hearing from Fauci and others.
> 
> If people are vaccinated can we do the following?
> 
> ...


For a while, people were going to fall over dead while exercising from the inflammation in the heart caused by COVID. I am happy to say I haven't heard anything about that in a while. Now it's the variants. 

You saw those percentages from Israel I posted in The Good News thread from the NY Times. Once you are vaccinated, you are at a much lower risk than the flu - to get or give.

"Here’s a useful way to think about Israel’s numbers: Only 3.5 out of every 100,000 people vaccinated there were later hospitalized with Covid symptoms. During a typical flu season in the U.S., by comparison, roughly 150 out of every 100,000 people are hospitalized with flu symptoms."


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Not true. Utah was open. When I was sitting here in AZ with restaurants and bars closed, my friends in Utah were sending me texts of them dining out, going to the bar, etc.


For alcohol, UT is always half closed.  Has been that way for years.  

Per capita alcohol consumption is about half what it is in other states.  That likely also means that average time spent in bars is about half what it is in other states.  And the bar/saloon contribution to transmissibility is about half what it is in other states.


----------



## watfly (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ok.  deaths per million residents in the west:
> *AZ 2150
> SD 2106
> ND 1890*
> ...


I was in Utah for a week in July, including the 4th.  Utah was way more open and way more lax with mask wearing than California.  Mask wearing at indoor retail shops was not mandatory and at some stores (like fishing and hunting shops) mask wearing was virtually non-existent.  Your liquor theory is speculative at best (I'm being polite).


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> For a while, people were going to fall over dead while exercising from the inflammation in the heart caused by COVID. I am happy to say I haven't heard anything about that in a while. Now it's the variants.
> 
> You saw those percentages from Israel I posted in The Good News thread from the NY Times. Once you are vaccinated, you are at a much lower risk than the flu - to get or give.
> 
> "Here’s a useful way to think about Israel’s numbers: Only 3.5 out of every 100,000 people vaccinated there were later hospitalized with Covid symptoms. During a typical flu season in the U.S., by comparison, roughly 150 out of every 100,000 people are hospitalized with flu symptoms."


I did read that. And that is all very good news.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> For alcohol, UT is always half closed.  Has been that way for years.
> 
> Per capita alcohol consumption is about half what it is in other states.  That likely also means that average time spent in bars is about half what it is in other states.  And the bar/saloon contribution to transmissibility is about half what it is in other states.


And yet their numbers match up with OR and WA. 

2 states that basically did the CA shut everything down route.

As I said if lockdowns and masks made a difference the data would easily show it.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> p.s. It's interesting Utah, Oregon, Washington all behaved similarly.  All states roughly the same size and each having 1 large city and several mid size cities.  Most housing is single family homes.  My completely speculative guess is in Utah probably, more than the bars, the factor that is going on is their conscientiousness.  People from Utah really look out for each other.  Our next door neighbors, for example, who we'd only known for a couple weeks offered to watch my boys overnight in the event I needed to be hospitalized overnight for some tests.  I think part of what was happening in Utah is that if someone felt sick, I don't think they were going to temple/church for fear of contaminating others.
> 
> The other monkey wrench in your figures is New Mexico....had one of the harder lockdowns in the west and quarantine periods for travel yet it still got the result that it got....partially its due to the outbreak in the Navajo nation, but still the NPIs didn't work as well as hoped.


I think NM threw in the towel on restrictions late last fall.  Not quite as bad as Europe, but with similar results.

It just shows that restrictions won't work after you stop using them.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> For a while, people were going to fall over dead while exercising from the inflammation in the heart caused by COVID. I am happy to say I haven't heard anything about that in a while. Now it's the variants


Yes that was the "fear' for awhile. As data came in that went away.

And yes you are correct, now the "fear" is variants.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And yet their numbers match up with OR and WA.
> 
> 2 states that basically did the CA shut everything down route.
> 
> As I said if lockdowns and masks made a difference the data would easily show it.


The data do show it.  

You just aren't good enough at statistics to understand the data.

There are statisticians who are good enough, but you refuse to listen to them.

So you go back to cherry picking the comparisons that tell you what you want to hear.  WA/OR, but not SD/MN.  CA/TX, but not AZ/CA.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think NM threw in the towel on restrictions late last fall.  Not quite as bad as Europe, but with similar results.
> 
> It just shows that restrictions won't work after you stop using them.


They didn't throw in the towel.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The data do show it.
> 
> You just aren't good enough at statistics to understand the data.
> 
> ...


How about explain CA vs TX/FL?

Or explain OR/WA vs UT?


----------



## watfly (Feb 24, 2021)

This is very disturbing and worse than I thought, but not totally surprising.  I just can't believe they put it in writing.  The following is an excerpt from an email to parents from a middle school in SDUSD about potential reopening:

_SDUSD will still need to bargain with all seven of our unions before we will have any logistical details, schedules, or concrete dates, and as I receive additional information and details, I will be sure to pass them along to you._

This is beyond f'ed up.  Our politicians need to get a pair and do like Reagan did with the air traffic controllers.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> They didn't throw in the towel.


Opened indoor dining in August, just before their big spike.

Relatively low cases before that.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> How about explain CA vs TX/FL?
> 
> Or explain OR/WA vs UT?


CA has a more transmissible virus than TX/FL.   And CA has a more disease prone low income housing setup.

By rights, our numbers should be significantly worse than theirs.  Instead, we are 10-20% lower.

How do you explain AZ vs every other western state?   You have more deaths per elderly resident than anyone else.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> There are statisticians who are good enough, but you refuse to listen to them


By the way. Why do I continue to compare CA vs TX/FL? Well if we go back over the months and look at your posts...you were constantly telling us those states were a disaster. They were doing it wrong.

So I like to circle back so to speak.

I am very good with math as an econ undergraduate major.. along with being an econ grad student for a period of time. And later being an MBA. So I am good with math and stats. More importantly I am good with understanding what those numbers imply.

I also have a history minor which might be why I remember what you argued before. People tend to forget the past...


----------



## espola (Feb 24, 2021)

watfly said:


> This is very disturbing and worse than I thought, but not totally surprising.  I just can't believe they put it in writing.  The following is an excerpt from an email to parents from a middle school in SDUSD about potential reopening:
> 
> _SDUSD will still need to bargain with all seven of our unions before we will have any logistical details, schedules, or concrete dates, and as I receive additional information and details, I will be sure to pass them along to you._
> 
> This is beyond f'ed up.  Our politicians need to get a pair and do like Reagan did with the air traffic controllers.


Are they going to bring in the military elementry school teachers to replace them?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Opened indoor dining in August, just before their big spike.
> 
> Relatively low cases before that.


You aren’t telling the entire story. Indoor dining opened at 25% capacity in August.  Restricted again in October.  Utah in the same time period had indoor dining. Nm also restricted gatherings to not more than 5 and still had their out of state quarantined.  Besides California and Hawaii their lockdowns have been the most rigorous in the west yet they ended where they did. The winter surge didn’t happen because they relaxed. It’s because everywhere went through a winter surge when it was their turn.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You aren’t telling the entire story. Indoor dining opened at 25% capacity in August.  Restricted again in October.  Utah in the same time period had indoor dining. Nm also restricted gatherings to not more than 5 and still had their out of state quarantined.  Besides California and Hawaii their lockdowns have been the most rigorous in the west yet they ended where they did. The winter surge didn’t happen because they relaxed. It’s because everywhere went through a winter surge when it was their turn.


Ps we now have a pretty good proxy for the effect of bars indoor dining and indoor gatherings have:  Florida post super bowl. There has been no Super Bowl surge. The best you can say is perhaps it slower the rate of decline but the effect is not noticeable to the naked eye and you have to crack out the calculus to see the impact on the curve. While I have no doubt they are high risk areas the carry the risk of individual infection, they rank far weaker in the driver of the outbreak than seasonality, farrs, housing density or immunity levels and a far lower impact on death than how nursing homes are treated.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ps we now have a pretty good proxy for the effect of bars indoor dining and indoor gatherings have:  Florida post super bowl. There has been no Super Bowl surge. The best you can say is perhaps it slower the rate of decline but the effect is not noticeable to the naked eye and you have to crack out the calculus to see the impact on the curve. While I have no doubt they are high risk areas the carry the risk of individual infection, they rank far weaker in the driver of the outbreak than seasonality, farrs, housing density or immunity levels and a far lower impact on death than how nursing homes are treated.


Why would you expect a super bowl surge in a state with high seroprevalence?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why would you expect a super bowl surge in a state with high seroprevalence?


You always throw up something to excuse your priors.  Because (for the same reason the 20% thresholds didn’t work) we know (from among others that Fauci guy but also from things like the various outbreaks on boats) that the herd immunity threshold is actually quite high (though I speculate it might be lower for any particular wave). Besides you were the one speculating that it would be stupid to gather for the super bowl and blow our progress...you didn’t qualify “in places like NorCal though I suppose places like Los Angeles Florida Texas and the dakotas with high immunity should be ok to bar indoor dine or house party”


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ps we now have a pretty good proxy for the effect of bars indoor dining and indoor gatherings have:  Florida post super bowl. There has been no Super Bowl surge. The best you can say is perhaps it slower the rate of decline but the effect is not noticeable to the naked eye and *you have to crack out the calculus to see the impact on the curve.* While I have no doubt they are high risk areas the carry the risk of individual infection, they rank far weaker in the driver of the outbreak than seasonality, farrs, housing density or immunity levels and a far lower impact on death than how nursing homes are treated.


Why?

There are people who do that for you.  You and hound just refuse to believe them.

Though I am amused by his claim that an econ major and an MBA gives him the stats chops to argue biological science of any kind.  

Kind of like me saying that, because the training wheels are off my bike, therefore I can drive a semi truck.  Not really the same level....


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why?
> 
> There are people who do that for you.  You and hound just refuse to believe them.
> 
> ...


Because they haven’t been exactly honest to date and have been shown repeatedly (as with the schools) to put agenda before the actual math and science. But as I said if there is an effect it’s been negligible so you’d had to do that to actually quantify it. It’s not clear and obvious


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You always throw up something to excuse your priors.  Because (for the same reason the 20% thresholds didn’t work) we know (from among others that Fauci guy but also from things like the various outbreaks on boats) that the herd immunity threshold is actually quite high (though I speculate it might be lower for any particular wave). Besides you were the one speculating that it would be stupid to gather for the super bowl and blow our progress...you didn’t qualify “in places like NorCal though I suppose places like Los Angeles Florida Texas and the dakotas with high immunity should be ok to bar indoor dine or house party”


Oh, I still think it was stupid for anyone to hold super bowl parties this year.

You don't need a 30% increase in cases for it to be a dumb idea.

Herd immunity is context dependent, by the way.  You can use a cruise ship to establish a number, but that only tells you the herd immunity level for that behavior in that environment.  Put the same people back in their homes, and the number changes entirely.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Oh, I still think it was stupid for anyone to hold super bowl parties this year.
> 
> You don't need a 30% increase in cases for it to be a dumb idea.
> 
> Herd immunity is context dependent, by the way.  You can use a cruise ship to establish a number, but that only tells you the herd immunity level for that behavior in that environment.  Put the same people back in their homes, and the number changes entirely.


I’d agree with all this.  But you were the one who was concerned numbers would go up if they were stupid. Their stupidity has not substantially impacted the numbers


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Because they haven’t been exactly honest to date and have been shown repeatedly (as with the schools) to put agenda before the actual math and science. But as I said if there is an effect it’s been negligible so you’d had to do that to actually quantify it. It’s not clear and obvious


You're looking for effects that swing transmissibility by 40%.  

I'm looking for anything that causes a 2% shift.

It makes a difference.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I’d agree with all this.  But you were the one who was concerned numbers would go up if they were stupid. Their stupidity has not substantially impacted the numbers


How stupid were they?  Do we know?  Or do we just assume that news anecdotes must be representative?  Seems a bad assumption.

Could look at ratings or beer sales, I suppose.  Not sure how you tell whether they watched at home or at a friend's house, though.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You're looking for effects that swing transmissibility by 40%.
> 
> I'm looking for anything that causes a 2% shift.
> 
> It makes a difference.


By definition it makes a difference. The question though is how substantial is the difference (the benefit) and how does it compare to the cost. We agree on the former...you have repeatedly refused to look at the latter. And the rhetoric and advice of the health experts have made it seem much more than a 2% impact (and while Christmas certainly reached that level...I doubt the Super Bowl did)


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> How stupid were they?  Do we know?  Or do we just assume that news anecdotes must be representative?  Seems a bad assumption.
> 
> Could look at ratings or beer sales, I suppose.  Not sure how you tell whether they watched at home or at a friend's house, though.


True but if the hysterics in the news were to be believed as well as the pictures broadcast, pretty stupid (though I grant you the news media is often liars). If folks are well behaved anyway then (as Sweden believes) what’s to point of banning bars restaurants and gathering....if most behave smart they’ll come to the conclusion without closures. You can’t have it both ways: we need to mandate because people are stupid or they are not and people can make their own decisions


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> By definition it makes a difference. The question though is how substantial is the difference (the benefit) and how does it compare to the cost. We agree on the former...you have repeatedly refused to look at the latter. And the rhetoric and advice of the health experts have made it seem much more than a 2% impact (and while Christmas certainly reached that level...I doubt the Super Bowl did)


That's because you see a 40% drop as a 40% drop in the total.

I see a 2% drop in transmissibility as one tenth of a solution.  

You're looking at totals and I'm looking at growth rates.


----------



## crush (Feb 24, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That's because you see a 40% drop as a 40% drop in the total.
> 
> I see a 2% drop in transmissibility as one tenth of a solution.
> 
> You're looking at totals and I'm looking at growth rates.


Then it’s not 2% given there’s been virtually no impact on the curve whatsoever.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10211


Would seem to be security theatre. If there’s no air getting in how do they not all suffocate and die?  If there is air getting in then what exactly is the point...even if not being directly thrown out from the instrument there’s still a lot of air being forced out from the lungs and being picked up by indoor circulation


----------



## dad4 (Feb 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Then it’s not 2% given there’s been virtually no impact on the curve whatsoever.


It's a one shot.  One shot 2% is diddly squat.  It's the ongoing 2% that matters.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It's a one shot.  One shot 2% is diddly squat.  It's the ongoing 2% that matters.


Goal post moved again. Again you were the one concerned about that people acting stupid—-> set backs.  I know compound effects are powerful but even on a recurring compound effect basis it’s no where in the vicinity of seasonality, farrs, housing density and immunity. And what’s worse comes at enormous costs.


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Because they haven’t been exactly honest to date and have been shown repeatedly (as with the schools) to put agenda before the actual math and science. But as I said if there is an effect it’s been negligible so you’d had to do that to actually quantify it. It’s not clear and obvious





__ https://www.pinterest.com/pin/441071357240648199/


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> __ https://www.pinterest.com/pin/441071357240648199/


Much better than the coocoos and nonsense. I heartily approve.  You done it again Magoo my dear old bean!


----------



## crush (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Much better than the coocoos and nonsense. I heartily approve.  You done it again Magoo my dear old bean!


I think we should all meet up after this is over.  Who is the real Magoo?


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Much better than the coocoos and nonsense. I heartily approve.  You done it again Magoo my dear old bean!


I guess you didn't get the joke about your criticizing people with agendas.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I guess you didn't get the joke about your criticizing people with agendas.


Yeah I got it. As I said much better than your usual schtick!  And coming from someone with his own agenda it’s even more funny!  Way to go Magoo, my dear old bean!

Ps you sort of ruined it by explaining it to the plebs.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 25, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10211





espola said:


> I guess you didn't get the joke about your criticizing people with agendas.


irony can be elusive


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah I got it. As I said much better than your usual schtick!  And coming from someone with his own agenda it’s even more funny!  Way to go Magoo, my dear old bean!
> 
> Ps you sort of ruined it by explaining it to the plebs.


Is reality an agenda?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Is reality an agenda?


You mean the reality where pro lockdowners have been wrong about everything from the constant mask reversals, to we aren’t going to get vaccines in 2020, to youth sports and schools, to the super bowl is going to lead to a spike?


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah I got it. As I said much better than your usual schtick!  And coming from someone with his own agenda it’s even more funny!  Way to go Magoo, my dear old bean!
> 
> Ps you sort of ruined it by explaining it to the plebs.


What do you think is my agenda?

I was explaining it to you.  Your agenda and disdain for science and math have been obvious since you first posted about crossing state lines to feed your ego.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> What do you think is my agenda?
> 
> I was explaining it to you.  Your agenda and disdain for science and math have been obvious since you first posted about crossing state lines to feed your ego.


My favorite thing in the world is libs and lockdowners that think they have no agenda but everyone else does.  Oh yeah I forgot you are a “conservative”. That’s hilarious.  Thanks for that. You are on fire today!


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Is reality an agenda?











						A quote by Robin  Williams
					

Reality is just a crutch for people who can't handle drugs.



					www.goodreads.com


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My favorite thing in the world is libs and lockdowners that think they have no agenda but everyone else does.  Oh yeah I forgot you are a “conservative”. That’s hilarious.  Thanks for that. You are on fire today!


I am not a member of any political party or organized political movement.  I judge every issue on its merits.  

I will not state my opinion of your political and/or moral stance.  You do that very well yourself by example.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I am not a member of any political party or organized political movement.  I judge every issue on its merits.
> 
> I will not state my opinion of your political and/or moral stance.  You do that very well yourself by example.


One which you don’t understand either. I’m a skeptic that is concerned with liberty and speak out for truth. That’s my organizing principle and I’m also part of no party or political movement. I also judge every issue on the merit...the problem though is I am self aware enough to acknowledge my bias...you not only don’t  see yours you actively deny it.


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> One which you don’t understand either. I’m a skeptic that is concerned with liberty and speak out for truth. That’s my organizing principle and I’m also part of no party or political movement. I also judge every issue on the merit...the problem though is I am self aware enough to acknowledge my bias...you not only don’t  see yours you actively deny it.


What am I denying?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> What am I denying?


Your bias by trying to paint things that you have no agenda


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> There are people who do that for you. You and hound just refuse to believe them.


Actually I think it is you who refuse to believe the actual facts on the ground.

Read the article. Look at the graphs as the compare what CA has done vs FL.


_In light of everything our officials have taught us about how this virus spreads, it defies reality that Florida, a fully open and popular travel destination with one of the oldest populations in the country, *currently has lower hospitalizations and deaths per million than California, a state with much heavier restrictions and one of the youngest populations in the country*. While it is true that, overall, California does slightly better than Florida in deaths per million, simply accounting for California's much younger population tips the scales in Florida’s favor.

Florida has zero restrictions on bars, breweries, indoor dining, gyms, places of worship, gathering sizes, and almost all schools are offering in-person instruction. California, on the other hand, retains heavy restrictions in each of these areas. At the very least, Florida's hospitalizations and deaths per million should be substantially worse than California's. Those who predicted death and destruction as a consequence of Florida's September reopening simply cannot see these results as anything other than utterly remarkable. Even White House covid advisor Andy Slavitt, much to the establishment’s embarrassment, had no explanation for Florida’s success relative to California. Slavitt was reduced to parroting establishment talking points after admitting that Florida’s surprisingly great numbers were “just a little beyond our explanation.”

--


We can see that, relative to Floridians,* Californians have consistently been doing a better job of avoiding social behaviors that allegedly fuel the spread of covid-19*. Moreover, at no point was there a drastic change in behavioral patterns after December 17 indicating that Floridians had suddenly begun avoiding activities purportedly linked to covid transmission.

A quick glance at each state's "social distancing score" also indicates, yet again, *that Californians have been doing a better job avoiding activities meant to facilitate the spread of covid-19.* Additionally, Google's covid mobility reports, as of February 16, 2021, show that Californians partake in fewer retail and recreational visits—restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters—as well as fewer grocery store and pharmacy visits, which include farmers markets, food warehouses, and speciality food shops.

--

Moving on from the Florida-California comparison, national metrics also highlight the lack of correlation between the intensity of states' NPIs—methodology for determining this can be found here—and deaths per million.

--

Similar case patterns across fifty states is hardly an indicator of a government capable of influencing the course of the virus. Instead, research published in *Evolutionary Bioinformatics shows that case counts and mortality rates are strongly correlated with temperature and latitude, a concept known as “seasonality,” which, once recognized, largely explains the failure of the past year’s NPIs.*

Meanwhile, we can look at seasonally congruent regions to see whether or not varying degrees of behavioral mandates have had any noticeable impact on cases. *What we find, thanks to seasonality, is that regardless of the timing or existence of mask mandates and other behavioral mandates, similar regions follow similar case growth patterns.

--*

For the *firm believer in NPIs*, these simultaneous and nearly identical fluctuations between cities within the same state and states having similar climates *are inexplicable.* After accepting seasonality as one of the driving factors behind case fluctuations, we can start speaking of "covid season" as pragmatically as we speak of "flu season."

--

Some of you may be wondering about the "holiday surges" that were supposed to have ravaged our hospitals following Thanksgiving and Christmas. Well, they never happened. Not only did the rate of covid-19 hospitalization growth decline after Thanksgiving, hospitalizations peaked less than two weeks after Christmas and have been sharply plummeting since! *At the very least we should have seen a rapid increase in the hospitalization growth rate in the few weeks following Christmas.*

---_









						Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19 | Anthony Rozmajzl
					

As we approach the one-year anniversary of fifteen days to flatten the curve, we have yet to acquire any data suggesting that the past year of life-destroying lockdowns and politicized behavioral mandates has done anything to keep us safe from covid-19.




					mises.org


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Your bias by trying to paint things that you have no agenda


Circle.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Circle.


Yeah you do have a tendency to run that car around in a circle.  At least it’s cute


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah you do have a tendency to run that car around in a circle.  At least it’s cute


You're the one who is avoiding the question.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> You're the one who is avoiding the question.


I answered you: your bias.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Actually I think it is you who refuse to believe the actual facts on the ground.
> 
> Read the article. Look at the graphs as the compare what CA has done vs FL.
> 
> ...


Your article is from some right wing crackpot site that proudly talks about "why the capitol riots scared the elite".  ( Apparently they think the elite are the bad guys and the good guy is the man who used a fire extinguisher to smash in a police officer's skull. )

If you want to be taken seriously, don't post cherry picked pseudo science from Q-Anon cheering loons.

How about Nature or the American Journal of Epidemiology?  You know, where the grown ups post.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your article is from some right wing crackpot site that proudly talks about "why the capitol riots scared the elite".  ( Apparently they think the elite are the bad guys and the good guy is the man who used a fire extinguisher to smash in a police officer's skull. )
> 
> If you want to be taken seriously, don't post cherry picked pseudo science from Q-Anon cheering loons.
> 
> How about Nature or the American Journal of Epidemiology?  You know, where the grown ups post.


He is just posting the data amigo. 

What did he post? 

The fact that FL is open and CA is not and yet the outcomes are similar. 

Do you dispute that? 

What else did he post? 

Oh yeah stats/data from Carnegie Mellon which shows what people are doing? What are those stats? That people in CA have been going out far less vs FL. And why is that important? Because despite Californians not going out as much as people from FL, the end result covid wise has been about exactly the same.

Do you discount him writing about what stats from Carnegie Mellon show? He is posting their info. 

Anything wrong with Carnegie Mellon? 

The charts/dates regarding rises and falls of covid activity he posted comes from Johns Hopkins. He posts links and images directly from that. You can look at the data/images yourself. 

So what part of John's Hopkins stats are you now saying are false? 

In other words all the sources used for the article come from highly respected institutions. He is not referencing psuedo science is he? 

Other sources include for instance the google covid 19 mobility reports. 

So it is disengenous on your part to say I don't like the author and thereby pretend that he is using psuedo science websites for his stats. He is not. 

You simply don't have an answer why your preferred solution/options over this past year have not been effective.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Goal post moved again. Again you were the one concerned about that people acting stupid—-> set backs.  I know compound effects are powerful but even on a recurring compound effect basis it’s no where in the vicinity of seasonality, farrs, housing density and immunity. And what’s worse comes at enormous costs.


The goal post is right where it always was:  Rt <1.0, long term.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> One which you don’t understand either. I’m a skeptic that is concerned with liberty and speak out for truth. That’s my organizing principle and I’m also part of no party or political movement. I also judge every issue on the merit...the problem though is I am self aware enough to acknowledge my bias...you not only don’t  see yours you actively deny it.


You base your skepticism on data that has been purposely shaped to support a certain agenda. We all do in some way, but some of us look beyond the sources that strictly adhere to our preferred and predetermined outcomes. That, and those that self-declare what they are, are often mistaken.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You base your skepticism on data that has been purposely shaped to support a certain agenda. We all do in some way, but some of us look beyond the sources that strictly adhere to our preferred and predetermined outcomes. That, and those that self-declare what they are, are often mistaken.


That's hilarious coming from your side since that's all the experts and pro-lockdowners have done throughout all this, and a result have been proven wrong repeatedly.  Our side has it easier: we just raised the questions that often times made you guys look foolish and anti-science.  Our agenda is simply skepticism.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The goal post is right where it always was:  Rt <1.0, long term.


Again, not what you said.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Your bias by trying to paint things that you have no agenda


Again by trying to stick known fact, “reality”(and yes as science progresses some hypothesis change), you see that as a “bias”? A bias against conspiracy driven drivel perhaps.








						The epic battle against coronavirus misinformation and conspiracy theories
					

Analysts are tracking false rumours about COVID-19 in hopes of curbing their spread.




					www.nature.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's hilarious coming from your side since that's all the experts and pro-lockdowners have done throughout all this, and a result have been proven wrong repeatedly.  Our side has it easier: we just raised the questions that often times made you guys look foolish and anti-science.  Our agenda is simply skepticism.


Side? You guys? Care to explain comrade?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Again by trying to stick known fact, “reality”(and yes as science progresses some hypothesis change), you see that as a “bias”? A bias against conspiracy driven drivel perhaps.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's exactly the issue.  There isn't a whole lot of "fact".  To dad's point, we don't really even understand a lot of the factors that are driving Rt<1.  Instead, we have a bunch of experts that are speculating on things and calling them "facts" (even going so far as to put out propaganda based studies like the CDC mask study dad cited a few weeks ago to justify their priors).  We have experts that threw out years and years of pandemic planning to do lockdowns and ordering masking (even though there's no RCS and can't be proving that masks help with COVID on a macro level).  We had experts that told everyone to lockdown and socially distance, but when the BLM protests came those were "important" and the prior advice was disgarded.  We even had scientists that came up with the new Biden school guidance based on "input from stakeholders" (read the teachers union) even though it is wholly absent in science, was contradicted by the CDC director's prior advice, and has been widely disregarded by even blue states like NY, Massachusetts and California, and then in a propaganda fit was masked as a school "reopening" plan while really it was a school closing plan (and they would have gotten away with it too but not for quick spotting people like our own dad4).  

We on the anti-lockdown side are only skeptics.  We raise the questions the experts can't.  We aren't headed in a particular direction because we aren't vested in the outcome (remember the 20% threshold limits...the anti-lockdowners quickly acknowledged herd immunity thresholds were much higher when proven wrong).  We were among the first to say we have a problem coming, when the experts had their head in the sand. We are the pro-science and pro-data.  We are Galileo, you are the church.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's exactly the issue.  There isn't a whole lot of "fact".  To dad's point, we don't really even understand a lot of the factors that are driving Rt<1.  Instead, we have a bunch of experts that are speculating on things and calling them "facts" (even going so far as to put out propaganda based studies like the CDC mask study dad cited a few weeks ago to justify their priors).  We have experts that threw out years and years of pandemic planning to do lockdowns and ordering masking (even though there's no RCS and can't be proving that masks help with COVID on a macro level).  We had experts that told everyone to lockdown and socially distance, but when the BLM protests came those were "important" and the prior advice was disgarded.  We even had scientists that came up with the new Biden school guidance based on "input from stakeholders" (read the teachers union) even though it is wholly absent in science, was contradicted by the CDC director's prior advice, and has been widely disregarded by even blue states like NY, Massachusetts and California, and then in a propaganda fit was masked as a school "reopening" plan while really it was a school closing plan (and they would have gotten away with it too but not for quick spotting people like our own dad4).
> 
> We on the anti-lockdown side are only skeptics.  We raise the questions the experts can't.  We aren't headed in a particular direction because we aren't vested in the outcome (remember the 20% threshold limits...the anti-lockdowners quickly acknowledged herd immunity thresholds were much higher when proven wrong).  We were among the first to say we have a problem coming, when the experts had their head in the sand. We are the pro-science and pro-data.  We are Galileo, you are the church.


Better safe than sorry


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's exactly the issue.  There isn't a whole lot of "fact".  To dad's point, we don't really even understand a lot of the factors that are driving Rt<1.  Instead, we have a bunch of experts that are speculating on things and calling them "facts" (even going so far as to put out propaganda based studies like the CDC mask study dad cited a few weeks ago to justify their priors).  We have experts that threw out years and years of pandemic planning to do lockdowns and ordering masking (even though there's no RCS and can't be proving that masks help with COVID on a macro level).  We had experts that told everyone to lockdown and socially distance, but when the BLM protests came those were "important" and the prior advice was disgarded.  We even had scientists that came up with the new Biden school guidance based on "input from stakeholders" (read the teachers union) even though it is wholly absent in science, was contradicted by the CDC director's prior advice, and has been widely disregarded by even blue states like NY, Massachusetts and California, and then in a propaganda fit was masked as a school "reopening" plan while really it was a school closing plan (and they would have gotten away with it too but not for quick spotting people like our own dad4).
> 
> We on the anti-lockdown side are only skeptics.  We raise the questions the experts can't.  We aren't headed in a particular direction because we aren't vested in the outcome (remember the 20% threshold limits...the anti-lockdowners quickly acknowledged herd immunity thresholds were much higher when proven wrong).  We were among the first to say we have a problem coming, when the experts had their head in the sand. We are the pro-science and pro-data.  We are Galileo, you are the church.


Again you derive your data from conspiracy driven fly by nights. Your stance is heretical to humankind not to any fairytales. They use you for clicks and revenue, they’ll tell you what you want to hear. Life is tough, tough love is not the easy road but the prudent one. Toughen up.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Side? You guys? Care to explain comrade?


Take your pick:

-Lockdowners v. antilockdowners
-Team panic v. team reality
-Blue pillers v red pillers
-Husker/espola/EOTL/dad4 v. Grace/Hound/Kicker/Alf



Hüsker Dü said:


> Better safe than sorry


No, "better safe than sorry" is antiscience.  Those of are the words of the scared and panic, and the pandemic has proved scared and panic are just as dangerous and destructive.  And what's worse is even when proven wrong y'all dig your heels in (witness dad4's epic just now of goalpost moving and throwing up every justification he can think of rather than "yeah, maybe I did overestimate the impact, but it's still stupid".)


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Again you derive your data from conspiracy driven fly by nights. Your stance is heretical to humankind not to any fairytales.


Way to keep those stakes burning.


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Way to keep those stakes burning.


Did you intend that to mean something?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Did you intend that to mean something?


went right over your head didn't it.  No surprise there.


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> went right over your head didn't it.  No surprise there.


It appears to me that whatever meaning you had in your head evaporated by the time it got to your fingers.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> It appears to me that whatever meaning you had in your head evaporated by the time it got to your fingers.


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


>


I see you are still avoiding any meaningful discussion.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I see you are still avoiding any meaningful discussion.


It's is entirely possible to have a meaningful discussion with dad4 and even Husker.  It is quite difficult to have one with you when you are running that car all over the place.  Get the glasses.  They'll help.


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's is entirely possible to have a meaningful discussion with dad4 and even Husker.  It is quite difficult to have one with you when you are running that car all over the place.  Get the glasses.  They'll help.


q.e.d.

A meaningful discussion could start right here with, for instance, an explanation of what you meant by my agenda, using complete sentences, logical thought, and perhaps with actual quotes or other examples showing that alleged agenda.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> q.e.d.
> 
> A meaningful discussion could start right here with, for instance, an explanation of what you meant by my agenda, using complete sentences, logical thought, and perhaps with actual quotes or other examples showing that alleged agenda.


That's hilarious coming from you when you cast aspersion on my agenda, yet refused to outline it yourself, using complete sentences, logical thought, and quotes.

So instead, I'll do the same thing you did: I will not state my opinion on your political and/or moral stance (other than, as Husker conceded, that you have one and like anyone it colors your outlook).  You do that very well by yourself by your words and examples.  It is self-evident to anyone who reads your posts here.

p.s., like dad4 pointed out about trotting out Hitler, it's pretty apparent when someone is on the ropes when they trot out that old warhorse: "q.e.d. I win!"


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 25, 2021)

Some days I am more thankful vs others. Today is one of those days. So happy my kids are not in public school.


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's hilarious coming from you when you cast aspersion on my agenda, yet refused to outline it yourself, using complete sentences, logical thought, and quotes.
> 
> So instead, I'll do the same thing you did: I will not state my opinion on your political and/or moral stance (other than, as Husker conceded, that you have one and like anyone it colors your outlook).  You do that very well by yourself by your words and examples.  It is self-evident to anyone who reads your posts here.
> 
> p.s., like dad4 pointed out about trotting out Hitler, it's pretty apparent when someone is on the ropes when they trot out that old warhorse: "q.e.d. I win!"


I didn't say "I win".  I just pointed out that you were demonstrating your avoidance of a coherent discussion, just as I had claimed.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Better safe than sorry


But at what cost?  And when is it time to be honest and admit that the solution some Governors have chose in the name of “better to be safe” has actually caused more harm?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't say "I win".  I just pointed out that you were demonstrating your avoidance of a coherent discussion, just as I had claimed.


Which I've said is not really possible with you (as opposed to dad4 or husker) because you lack the coherence.  Why would I ever want to engage in such an exercise of futility, particularly when it revolves around what is supposedly your favorite topic, and my least, (which is you) particularly when you've demonstrated already it's o.k. to cast aspersions but to not back them up when you did the same to me.

Talk about ego...you want to have an argument about you!.....q.e.d.?


----------



## dad4 (Feb 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Some days I am more thankful vs others. Today is one of those days. So happy my kids are not in public school.
> 
> View attachment 10213


Blame that one on school bureaucracy, not the scientists.  Looks like uninformed locals trying to create a loophole.

They are indoors.  No one in the scientific community is recommending _indoor_ band or choir practice.

Lose the tents and practice outside.  Or take up piano and get keyboards for everyone.  But don't put 20 people in the same room playing wind instruments.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Blame that one on school bureaucracy, not the scientists. Looks like uninformed locals trying to create a loophole.


Trust me. On this one I am not blaming the scientists. I am fully blaming the school system.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 25, 2021)

Here’s another little insight to how some school board members are perceiving/positioning getting schools open.


----------



## espola (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Which I've said is not really possible with you (as opposed to dad4 or husker) because you lack the coherence.  Why would I ever want to engage in such an exercise of futility, particularly when it revolves around what is supposedly your favorite topic, and my least, (which is you) particularly when you've demonstrated already it's o.k. to cast aspersions but to not back them up when you did the same to me.
> 
> Talk about ego...you want to have an argument about you!.....q.e.d.?


Today's discussion started when I mocked your criticism of those "with an agenda".  I still think that's pretty funny.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Today's discussion started when I mocked your criticism of those "with an agenda".  I still think that's pretty funny.


Yes, it is pretty funny, particularly when the mocking came from you.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 25, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Here’s another little insight to how some school board members are perceiving/positioning getting schools open.


It is like watching a comedy sketch...except for the fact it isn't. These are the people making decisions.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Feb 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It is like watching a comedy sketch...except for the fact it isn't. These are the people making decisions.


Thank god these things are recorded, otherwise you won’t believe it’s really happening and would be dismissed as “Q conspiracy”


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Blame that one on school bureaucracy, not the scientists.  Looks like uninformed locals trying to create a loophole.
> 
> They are indoors.  No one in the scientific community is recommending _indoor_ band or choir practice.
> 
> Lose the tents and practice outside.  Or take up piano and get keyboards for everyone.  But don't put 20 people in the same room playing wind instruments.


Interestingly just got the word from our private school that in our return to class next week band and choir will not be meeting for the time being...even outside in the outdoor spaces we have set up for some classes...too high risk apparently. Kids on independent study (and sports now shifting from independent study to on campus which is a fair tradeoff).


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Feb 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Better safe than sorry


For whom, kids or adults?


----------



## dad4 (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interestingly just got the word from our private school that in our return to class next week band and choir will not be meeting for the time being...even outside in the outdoor spaces we have set up for some classes...too high risk apparently. Kids on independent study (and sports now shifting from independent study to on campus which is a fair tradeoff).


makes sense.  You just barely got back to in person history discussions and chemistry labs.  No need to put that at risk for the sake of tubas and flutes.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No need to put that at risk for the sake of tubas and flutes.


Speaking of tubas....


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 25, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> But at what cost?  And when is it time to be honest and admit that the solution some Governors have chose in the name of “better to be safe” has actually caused more harm?


Look at the pandemic as your own personal Vietnam.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Take your pick:
> 
> -Lockdowners v. antilockdowners
> -Team panic v. team reality
> ...


Damn, you did @dad4 dirty.


----------



## espola (Feb 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Take your pick:
> 
> -Lockdowners v. antilockdowners
> -Team panic v. team reality
> ...


Life is not that simple.


----------



## MARsSPEED (Feb 26, 2021)

And the Flu takes the win!

2019 Flu Deaths Ages 0-17
*434*
[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]

2020-2021 Current CoVid Deaths Ages 0-17
*204*
[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]

2020-2021 Flu and CoVid Deaths Combined Ages 0-17
*382*
[link to www.cdc.gov (secure)]

I guess we should have home schooled and played sports for the past 100 years.


----------



## crush (Feb 26, 2021)

*The Ruby’s at the end of Huntington Beach Pier will close forever on Friday*

I took my wife on a date here before kids and then went down to kiss under the pier.  A few years later and two kids later, we all went for those burgers and shakes.  I will miss you.  RIP Ruby!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 26, 2021)

espola said:


> Life is not that simple.


True that.  But I point out you did the same by casting aspersions as well on my own agenda and then declined to articulate.  Maybe take some of your own medicine then???


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 26, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Damn, you did @dad4 dirty.


True that. Not saying at all he’s equivalent, he really does think, and they could tag our side with a few too. There’s also the great middle that was really concerned at first but eventually got tired of it all and moved off that position. But just an opinion...given that the middle has moved off it is strange company to keep...if those are your...trying to think of the word but there is no English equivalent...comrades.....maybe time for a reflection on your position.


----------



## happy9 (Feb 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your article is from some right wing crackpot site that proudly talks about "why the capitol riots scared the elite".  ( Apparently they think the elite are the bad guys and the good guy is the man who used a fire extinguisher to smash in a police officer's skull. )


I know this isn't the topic of this particular conversation - But he wasn't hit in the head with a fire extinguisher.  Apparently there wasn't any blunt force trauma at all.  It made for great articles though.  The "elites" ran with it, loving every minute of making a bad situation worse.  It's how they roll. 

And in many ways, the "elite" are the bad guys.  At a minimum, they are deliberate hypocrites. 

I find it very amusing that you can say "right wing crackpot site" in the same paragraph.  And yes, there are right wing crackpot sites just as there are left wing crackpot sites that perpetuated the fire extinguisher myth.


----------



## espola (Feb 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> True that.  But I point out you did the same by casting aspersions as well on my own agenda and then declined to articulate.  Maybe take some of your own medicine then???


This pretty well describes your agenda --

-Lockdowners v. antilockdowners
-Team panic v. team reality

And you show it every day.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 26, 2021)

espola said:


> This pretty well describes your agenda --
> 
> -Lockdowners v. antilockdowners
> -Team panic v. team reality
> ...


I’m a pro science skeptic that wants the science and not politics or panic to govern pandemic decisions

And you’ve just defined yourself in opposition (which you’ve also shown repeatedly)


----------



## dad4 (Feb 26, 2021)

happy9 said:


> I know this isn't the topic of this particular conversation - But he wasn't hit in the head with a fire extinguisher.  Apparently there wasn't any blunt force trauma at all.  It made for great articles though.  The "elites" ran with it, loving every minute of making a bad situation worse.  It's how they roll.
> 
> And in many ways, the "elite" are the bad guys.  At a minimum, they are deliberate hypocrites.
> 
> I find it very amusing that you can say "right wing crackpot site" in the same paragraph.  And yes, there are right wing crackpot sites just as there are left wing crackpot sites that perpetuated the fire extinguisher myth.


ok.  The murder weapon was not a fire extinguisher.  

Of course there are left wing crackpots, and left wing crackpot sites.  And, like their right wing mirrors, they are not a place to go when looking for a balanced and well thought explanation of important events.

Fringe sites, like mises.org, tend to tell only the half of the story that helps grind their axe.

They will tell you that CA has a similar total death rate to FL, which is true.
They will remember to correct for age, because this helps their case.
They will forget to tell you that CA has a more contagious variant, because that fact pretty much eviscerates their case.

Even a 20% difference in transmissibility can cause a far greater than 20% difference in cases and deaths.  It’s the difference between R=1.1 and R= 1.3   The second causes three times as many infections as the first.

So, they accurately tell half the story, but leave out enough key points to ruin the validity of the conclusion..  This just isn’t helpful.  If you want a full comparison of policies in all 50 states, there are people who do it honestly.  But you won’t find them on fringe sites.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> ok.  The murder weapon was not a fire extinguisher.
> 
> Of course there are left wing crackpots, and left wing crackpot sites.  And, like their right wing mirrors, they are not a place to go when looking for a balanced and well thought explanation of important events.
> 
> ...


Those who do it honestly are few and far between on the pro lockdown side either.  They are also pushing an agenda because they have to justify the profound damage they’ve done by throwing out 20 years of pandemic planning.  The best thing either side can do is to say “we just don’t know”. At least then we can have an honest debate between “better safe than sorry” and “the cost is too damn high”. But the pro lockdown side has taken this attitude that they alone have the high ground and they alone follow the science, despite having been wrong at nearly every turn and having been caught at times putting politics in front of the science.  The most important thing that we can be doing is asking questions, because that’s how we force experts to come to the corrected conclusions or to defend their conclusions and prove them right. The biggest issue is there’s been far too much deference (even among the experts) from the beginning (which led to the world believing China and being caught unprepared).


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 26, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Damn, you did @dad4 dirty.


I really lol'd at this comment.


----------



## happy9 (Feb 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> ok.  The murder weapon was not a fire extinguisher.
> 
> Of course there are left wing crackpots, and left wing crackpot sites.  And, like their right wing mirrors, they are not a place to go when looking for a balanced and well thought explanation of important events.
> 
> ...


I get your frustration and do respect your consistency.


----------



## MicPaPa (Feb 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> ok.  The murder weapon was not a fire extinguisher.
> 
> Of course there are left wing crackpots, and left wing crackpot sites.  And, like their right wing mirrors, they are not a place to go when looking for a balanced and well thought explanation of important events.
> 
> ...


"murder weapon"? Since the medical examiners report has not been released and there is an ongoing investigation... I assume you have facts or evidence to support he was murdered? OR are you one of the crackpots feeding a false narrative?


----------



## MicPaPa (Feb 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's is entirely possible to have a meaningful discussion with dad4 and even Husker.  It is quite difficult to have one with you when you are running that car all over the place.  Get the glasses.  They'll help.


FACT CHECK: True


----------



## espola (Feb 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I’m a pro science skeptic that wants the science and not politics or panic to govern pandemic decisions
> 
> And you’ve just defined yourself in opposition (which you’ve also shown repeatedly)


No, I haven't.


----------



## espola (Feb 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Those who do it honestly are few and far between on the pro lockdown side either.  They are also pushing an agenda because they have to justify the profound damage they’ve done by throwing out 20 years of pandemic planning.  The best thing either side can do is to say “we just don’t know”. At least then we can have an honest debate between “better safe than sorry” and “the cost is too damn high”. But the pro lockdown side has taken this attitude that they alone have the high ground and they alone follow the science, despite having been wrong at nearly every turn and having been caught at times putting politics in front of the science.  The most important thing that we can be doing is asking questions, because that’s how we force experts to come to the corrected conclusions or to defend their conclusions and prove them right. The biggest issue is there’s been far too much deference (even among the experts) from the beginning (which led to the world believing China and being caught unprepared).


What did the 20 years of pandemic planning call for?


----------



## MicPaPa (Feb 26, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Here’s another little insight to how some school board members are perceiving/positioning getting schools open.





Grace T. said:


> Which I've said is not really possible with you (as opposed to dad4 or husker) because you lack the coherence.  Why would I ever want to engage in such an exercise of futility, particularly when it revolves around what is supposedly your favorite topic, and my least, (which is you) particularly when you've demonstrated already it's o.k. to cast aspersions but to not back them up when you did the same to me.
> 
> Talk about ego...you want to have an argument about you!.....q.e.d.?


Painful to watch...like a t-ball team playing the LA Dodgers.


----------



## MicPaPa (Feb 26, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Here’s another little insight to how some school board members are perceiving/positioning getting schools open.


Poster child for everything toxic and wrong with this country!


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 26, 2021)

espola said:


> What did the 20 years of pandemic planning call for?


Not lockdowns  Those were a Chinese invention. Not masks (those were for health care workers per Faucis original advice). School closures and restrictions were only for short periods and only in the most severe outbreak times (not months)


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 26, 2021)

espola said:


> No, I haven't.


Yes you have repeatedly. You are more than welcome to correct the record and tell us what you in fact believe.  But your upvotes and contrariness to certain positions speaks volumes


----------



## espola (Feb 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Not lockdowns  Those were a Chinese invention. Not masks (those were for health care workers per Faucis original advice). School closures and restrictions were only for short periods and only in the most severe outbreak times (not months)


I thought you would cite a reference, not just repeat your opinion.


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes you have repeatedly. You are more than welcome to correct the record and tell us what you in fact believe.  But your upvotes and contrariness to certain positions speaks volumes


Hey I think just the other day you and @espola were discussing this.









						The American Journal of Medicine Now Recommends HCQ for COVID19 | Principia Scientific Intl.
					

The American Journal of Medicine now (Jan. 2021) recommends Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Zinc for the treatment of Covid 19 outpatients. The irony is this is the treatment that former US President, Donald Trump promoted last year. The timing, right after the election, is interesting...




					principia-scientific.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 26, 2021)

espola said:


> I thought you would cite a reference, not just repeat your opinion.


Nah it’s a fact. Do your own research.


----------



## espola (Feb 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes you have repeatedly. You are more than welcome to correct the record and tell us what you in fact believe.  But your upvotes and contrariness to certain positions speaks volumes


You are very quick to put people into red/blue, black/white. up/down extremes.  I'm not.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Hey I think just the other day you and @espola were discussing this.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thr details are interesting, and complicated.  Recommended for outpatients.  But in large doses it weakens the early immune response.

Same drug, same disease.  Taken early, it hurts.  Taken late, it helps.

Not really as simple as HCQ=good or HCQ=bad.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 26, 2021)

espola said:


> You are very quick to put people into red/blue, black/white. up/down extremes.  I'm not.


It’s a shorthand. Dad4 and I are actually relatively close on the policy we’d follow and are probably closer than dad4 and newsoms former policy. 

That you don’t do it is laughable considering you were the one who found my own positions obvious. And as I’ve invited to you if you think you’ve been incorrectly classified you are more than welcome to explain to us the nuances of your position (2nd invite)


----------



## dad4 (Feb 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s a shorthand. Dad4 and I are actually relatively close on the policy we’d follow and are probably closer than dad4 and newsoms former policy.
> 
> That you don’t do it is laughable considering you were the one who found my own positions obvious. And as I’ve invited to you if you think you’ve been incorrectly classified you are more than welcome to explain to us the nuances of your position (2nd invite)


Except when I call for a national mask mandate and closing indoor dining.  I assume we still differ on those.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Except when I call for a national mask mandate and closing indoor dining.  I assume we still differ on those.


We actually agree on indoor dining but differ on the rigorous ness and length of the closures. I think a National mask mandate would be unconstitutional but agree with masks for most indoor commercial situations but think our expectations about what they can do must be tempered


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 26, 2021)

MicPaPa said:


> "murder weapon"? Since the medical examiners report has not been released and there is an ongoing investigation... I assume you have facts or evidence to support he was murdered? OR are you one of the crackpots feeding a false narrative?


Do you nick pick the cause of death in all tragic events? How many 9/11 victims were directly murdered by the terrorists? Deaths were caused by illegal activities instigated by trump and his minions. Not to mention the thousands that needlessly died due to trumps lack of effort concerning COVID-19.


----------



## espola (Feb 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Hey I think just the other day you and @espola were discussing this.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s a shorthand. Dad4 and I are actually relatively close on the policy we’d follow and are probably closer than dad4 and newsoms former policy.
> 
> That you don’t do it is laughable considering you were the one who found my own positions obvious. And as I’ve invited to you if you think you’ve been incorrectly classified you are more than welcome to explain to us the nuances of your position (2nd invite)


I have already responded that I don't judge a person or idea based on its partisan identity.  Before responding to people I don't know or making judgements on an idea, I do some background research.  

Why does Grammarly prefer "judgment" over "judgement"?


----------



## dad4 (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I have already responded that I don't judge a person or idea based on its partisan identity.  Before responding to people I don't know or making judgements on an idea, I do some background research.
> 
> Why does Grammarly prefer "judgment" over "judgement"?


Courts.  The legal system uses “judgment”, and US dictionaries follow.  Grammarly imports some dictionary, and gets the legal spelling along with it.


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Courts.  The legal system uses “judgment”, and US dictionaries follow.  Grammarly imports some dictionary, and gets the legal spelling along with it.


Some dictionaries now carry the word "orbisculate" just because people asked them to.





__





						Urban Dictionary: Orbisculate
					

1 to accidentally squirt juice and/or pulp into one’s eye, as from a grapefruit when using a spoon to scoop out a section for eating. 2 to accidentally squirt the inner content from fruits, vegetables and other foods onto one’s face, body or clothing, or onto that of a person nearby.




					www.urbandictionary.com


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Some dictionaries now carry the word "orbisculate" just because people asked them to.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And don't get me started on "preventive" vs. "preventative".


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I have already responded that I don't judge a person or idea based on its partisan identity.


This right here is probably the funniest thing I’ve read on these forums in a long time.


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This right here is probably the funniest thing I’ve read on these forums in a long time.


Why is that?


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Why is that?


Even funnier.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 27, 2021)

While I think it's noble to have the idea that we shouldn't judge people based upon their opinions, I don't think as humans we are capable of that.
I think the difference is whether or not you voice your judgements out loud


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 27, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> While I think it's noble to have the idea that we shouldn't judge people based upon their opinions, I don't think as humans we are capable of that.
> I think the difference is whether or not you voice your judgements out loud


“partisan identity” to me reads like politics, as in E is saying he doesn’t judge a person or an idea based on the political slant of the source (i.e. a good idea is a good idea and a good person is a good person, and of course the contrary applies as well). Opinions are all we have to base judgement on online. We have no idea how people actually are in real life. So many people assume an alter ego online.


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “partisan identity” to me reads like politics, as in E is saying he doesn’t judge a person or an idea based on the political slant of the source (i.e. a good idea is a good idea and a good person is a good person, and of course the contrary applies as well). Opinions are all we have to base judgement on online. We have no idea how people actually are in real life. So many people assume an alter ego online.


I voted for both Republicans and Democrats in the 2020 election.  I even voted for someone I suspected I wouldn't like later because I knew his opponent well enough to know I didn't like him already.  

As for posting on the web -- my longstanding policy is not to post anything I wouldn't want my mother to read.

And now for something that probably deserves its own thread -- there is still a political sign standing beside I8 east of Cajon proclaiming Darrell Issa to be a "Trump conservative".  I find that ironic in the same vein as 2020 Trump supporters wearing "Make America Great Again" hats.


----------



## whatithink (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I voted for both Republicans and Democrats in the 2020 election.  I even voted for someone I suspected I wouldn't like later because I knew his opponent well enough to know I didn't like him already.
> 
> As for posting on the web -- my longstanding policy is not to post anything I wouldn't want my mother to read.
> 
> And now for something that probably deserves its own thread -- there is still a political sign standing beside I8 east of Cajon proclaiming Darrell Issa to be a "Trump conservative".  I find that ironic in the same vein as 2020 Trump supporters wearing "Make America Great Again" hats.


The most ironic thing I've seen of late is Don Jr and his ilk calling life long GOPers RINO's.


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

whatithink said:


> The most ironic thing I've seen of late is Don Jr and his ilk calling life long GOPers RINO's.


Political parties are often founded on an ideal that evolves or disappears over time.  The Republican Party got started when abolitionist Whigs were fed up with that party's endless compromising on the issue of slavery, and now it welcomes and supports the most racist politicians in the country.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “partisan identity” to me reads like politics, as in E is saying he doesn’t judge a person or an idea based on the political slant of the source (i.e. a good idea is a good idea and a good person is a good person, and of course the contrary applies as well). Opinions are all we have to base judgement on online. We have no idea how people actually are in real life. So many people assume an alter ego online.


I think we should start with the idea that most people here (including e but perhaps excluding a handful of notable exceptions on both extremes) are good people and are genuinely interested in soccer and soccer kids or they wouldn’t be here. Where it becomes suspect though is when a person views all pro lockdown/pro leftist ideas as “good ideas” and all anti lockdown/pro rightist ideas as “bad ideas” and vice versa...9/10 that’s just tribalism at work.


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I think we should start with the idea that most people here (including e but perhaps excluding a handful of notable exceptions on both extremes) are good people and are genuinely interested in soccer and soccer kids or they wouldn’t be here. Where it becomes suspect though is when a person views all pro lockdown/pro leftist ideas as “good ideas” and all anti lockdown/pro rightist ideas as “bad ideas” and vice versa...9/10 that’s just tribalism at work.


It appears that in your world there are only two types of thought recognizable -- "pro lockdown/pro leftist ideas" and "anti lockdown/pro rightist ideas".  I disagree with that rigid dichotomy.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> It appears that in your world there are only two types of thought recognizable -- "pro lockdown/pro leftist ideas" and "anti lockdown/pro rightist ideas".  I disagree with that rigid dichotomy.


All or nothing, for some it simplifies things, makes things easier. No brain no headache.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> It appears that in your world there are only two types of thought recognizable -- "pro lockdown/pro leftist ideas" and "anti lockdown/pro rightist ideas".  I disagree with that rigid dichotomy.


a. fair  but it's just a shorthand.  As I said before, Newsom and dad 4 are worlds apart more than dad 4 and I even though we are on different sides.
b. As to you yourself, see the second sentence of my post.  You are classic example.
c. If you disagree with that, you are more than welcome to correct the record (3rd invite) and I'll take you at your word.
d. you are a hypocrite because this conversation began tarring me with the same brush (e.g., my position on trans athletes is more "woke" than dad4's)


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 27, 2021)

How Every Single Participant in This Cycling Class Got COVID-19
					

Even though they were six feet apart.




					www.self.com


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How Every Single Participant in This Cycling Class Got COVID-19
> 
> 
> Even though they were six feet apart.
> ...


1. It's pretty self-evident the 6 foot thing has been complete nonsense and is just guessing (considering standards around the world range from 3-12 feet). There's some data, but  that data is very hard to apply to particular situations such as with indoor circulation.  Add to that people yelling and heavy exercise breathing with closed windows and you are just asking for it.
2. Pretty shocking too some people came to class symptomatic.  My guess is this is how a lot of non-resident spread takes places, and explains the differences in some nations like Germany and Japan where it's less acceptable to go out in public if you are sick.
3. Some people who caught it wore masks.  Also not surprising.  They aren't miracle products and in a situation like this, where the masks get wet from perspiration, the best you can hope for is reducing viral loads.


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a. fair  but it's just a shorthand.  As I said before, Newsom and dad 4 are worlds apart more than dad 4 and I even though we are on different sides.
> b. As to you yourself, see the second sentence of my post.  You are classic example.
> c. If you disagree with that, you are more than welcome to correct the record (3rd invite) and I'll take you at your word.
> d. you are a hypocrite because this conversation began tarring me with the same brush (e.g., my position on trans athletes is more "woke" than dad4's)


You're babbling.


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How Every Single Participant in This Cycling Class Got COVID-19
> 
> 
> Even though they were six feet apart.
> ...


The "no duh" moment is in the first paragraph -- "Indoor group fitness classes are actually a pretty effective way to transmit the coronavirus".


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> You're babbling.


"You done it again, my dear old Magoo!"


----------



## happy9 (Feb 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Do you nick pick the cause of death in all tragic events? How many 9/11 victims were directly murdered by the terrorists? Deaths were caused by illegal activities instigated by trump and his minions. Not to mention the thousands that needlessly died due to trumps lack of effort concerning COVID-19.


Silly argument.  It's disgusting and shameful that the media used the story line that someone had their head violently bashed in with a fire extinguisher and died at the point of injury as a rallying cry.  It was repeated over and over again.  It was a lie and they knew it - but it sounded so cool and dramatic.  Sounds so much better to say he had his head bashed in rather than an allergic reaction to pepper spray/mace.   Which is interesting since most law enforcement undergo pepper spray training.  We'll never really know since his body was cremated.  I have some beachfront property in AZ to sell you if you think the yet to be released coroner reports will be truthful.  Are you defending the media?

And all of the victims who died onboard airplanes and in buildings on 911 were murdered.  That was the point.


----------



## espola (Feb 27, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Silly argument.  It's disgusting and shameful that the media used the story line that someone had their head violently bashed in with a fire extinguisher and died at the point of injury as a rallying cry.  It was repeated over and over again.  It was a lie and they knew it - but it sounded so cool and dramatic.  Sounds so much better to say he had his head bashed in rather than an allergic reaction to pepper spray/mace.   Which is interesting since most law enforcement undergo pepper spray training.  We'll never really know since his body was cremated.  I have some beachfront property in AZ to sell you if you think the yet to be released coroner reports will be truthful.  Are you defending the media?
> 
> And all of the victims who died onboard airplanes and in buildings on 911 were murdered.  That was the point.


My thought when I heard "fire extinguisher" on the live broadcast was "where did they get that?".  My latest conjecture is that the so-called "fire extinguisher" was actually a large canister of bear spray, several of which were observed being carried and used by the Capitol traitors that day.


----------



## watfly (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> My thought when I heard "fire extinguisher" on the live broadcast was "where did they get that?".  My latest conjecture is that the so-called "fire extinguisher" was actually a large canister of bear spray, several of which were observed being carried and used by the Capitol traitors that day.


A large can of bear spray isn't very large and its pretty thin aluminum and very light weight even when filled.  While I guess it might be possible I would put that odds at fairly unlikely that it could kill someone.

I did manage to shoot myself in the stomach with bear spray this summer in Yellowstone.  That was a very unpleasant experience, but probably just punishment for my stupidity.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 27, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Silly argument.  It's disgusting and shameful that the media used the story line that someone had their head violently bashed in with a fire extinguisher and died at the point of injury as a rallying cry.  It was repeated over and over again.  It was a lie and they knew it - but it sounded so cool and dramatic.  Sounds so much better to say he had his head bashed in rather than an allergic reaction to pepper spray/mace.   Which is interesting since most law enforcement undergo pepper spray training.  We'll never really know since his body was cremated.  I have some beachfront property in AZ to sell you if you think the yet to be released coroner reports will be truthful.  Are you defending the media?
> 
> And all of the victims who died onboard airplanes and in buildings on 911 were murdered.  That was the point.


I never heard that where were saying that? I never saw a news agency declare a cause of death until the report about the bear spray.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 27, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Silly argument.  It's disgusting and shameful that the media used the story line that someone had their head violently bashed in with a fire extinguisher and died at the point of injury as a rallying cry.  It was repeated over and over again.  It was a lie and they knew it - but it sounded so cool and dramatic.  Sounds so much better to say he had his head bashed in rather than an allergic reaction to pepper spray/mace.   Which is interesting since most law enforcement undergo pepper spray training.  We'll never really know since his body was cremated.  I have some beachfront property in AZ to sell you if you think the yet to be released coroner reports will be truthful.  Are you defending the media?
> 
> And all of the victims who died onboard airplanes and in buildings on 911 were murdered.  That was the point.


How do you feel about the law enforcement officers that committed suicide? Do you feel the same about military and ex-military individuals that suffer from PTSD that commit suicide? How about the first responders that ran into the twin towers on 9/11 to try to save lives? Are these people just “suckers and losers” because they put their lives on the line for others?


----------



## happy9 (Feb 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How do you feel about the law enforcement officers that committed suicide? Do you feel the same about military and ex-military individuals that suffer from PTSD that commit suicide? How about the first responders that ran into the twin towers on 9/11 to try to save lives? Are these people just “suckers and losers” because they put their lives on the line for others?


Let me answer the first part of your nonsense by saying you don't know who you are talking to.  At no point in my discussion did I denigrate law enforcement, military, and any other person who puts their lives on the line for those not in their immediate family.  I don't know you and have no idea if you've ever earned the right to lead those types of men and women during your time on earth.   You can take the time (or not) to review my post history and get a sense of my background.  Your words are shameful and show an immense amount of disrespect.  Stay on topic.  Your talking points are weak. 

My point in all of this is the media ran with a story that was patently false.  And they did it at a high level of hysteria and glee. If you can't see that, then you are hopelessly lost in the political morass that is perpetuated by people like you.


----------



## happy9 (Feb 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I never heard that where were saying that? I never saw a news agency declare a cause of death until the report about the bear spray.


You are kidding right?  Let's start with the NY Times, Capitol Police spokespeople, every major cable news network.  

Many outlets have quietly gone back and corrected their stories.  At the time, getting your head bashed in by a fire extinguisher by a trump supporter sounded much better that going back to the office, talking to family, mysteriously collapsing, transported to the hospital, then dying.

Lazy, sensational journalism.  Works every time.  Damage is done, move it along.


----------



## happy9 (Feb 27, 2021)

espola said:


> My thought when I heard "fire extinguisher" on the live broadcast was "where did they get that?".  My latest conjecture is that the so-called "fire extinguisher" was actually a large canister of bear spray, several of which were observed being carried and used by the Capitol traitors that day.


Their's  footage of a fire extinguisher getting pulled off the wall and thrown into a crowd.  The point is that it sounds more dramatic than dying of an allergic reaction.  Again, strange since "most" law enforcement training includes exposure to pepper spray/mace.  You can develop allergies after the fact, so there is that.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Feb 27, 2021)

happy9 said:


> You are kidding right?  Let's start with the NY Times, Capitol Police spokespeople, every major cable news network.
> 
> Many outlets have quietly gone back and corrected their stories.  At the time, getting your head bashed in by a fire extinguisher by a trump supporter sounded much better that going back to the office, talking to family, mysteriously collapsing, transported to the hospital, then dying.
> 
> Lazy, sensational journalism.  Works every time.  Damage is done, move it along.


Bottom line trump lied people died you can’t negotiate that away.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 27, 2021)

Sad that so many people have to live under this type of rule.









						China’s truthtellers: The people who shared details of the Covid-19 pandemic that Beijing left out
					

Doctors and journalists tried to raise the alarm in the early days of the pandemic. A year on, many have been silenced




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Feb 27, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Sad that so many people have to live under this type of rule.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It.is a dictatorship. And many people/countries excuse this and line up to do biz with them.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 28, 2021)

Cases are rising again in South America.  Brazil Argentina Chile Peru have all had slight turn ups. India too.  Some of these nations have been hit in prior waves (despite rigorous lockdowns) very hard. The question the talking heads are discussing is if this is some kind of seasonal effect or is it the variants at work.  Re seasonality though there has been no upturn in either Australia (despite a relaxing of lockdowns) or South Africa (despite the variant) but both may be too far south yet to feel the seasonal effects.  That sets up an awful scenario considering vaccine rollout in South America has been even more of s show then Europe.  Economically South America is on its knees and a third wave would be just devastating. Attended a talk on Thursday predicting the us, given likely approvals for 2 more vaccines coming down the pike and the vaccine refusal rate, likely faces a vaccine glut by may.  May need to donate some of that to South America before it goes bad. 

In Europe the plateau effect has been hitting Scandinavia, particularly Norway which up to now had escaped the worst of things.  There are also some signs some other countries may have hit a plateau.


----------



## happy9 (Feb 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Bottom line trump lied people died you can’t negotiate that away.


That's your response? Weak. When you can finally admit that both sides (because you have sides) are wrong then you will finally demonstrate adulthood. trump lied, hc lied, susan rice lied,  lied.  I can keep going, holder lied.  in each of these cases, US Citizens were murdered  because of lies.  It's what politicians do.  When you are smitten to one side, you ignore your own lies and highlight others.   Pathetic state of being.

But  I get it, trump is your boogey man.  At some point it (whatever the "it" flavor of the day it)  will no longer be trump's fault, then what?  I'm sure another boogey man will be picked.


----------



## crush (Feb 28, 2021)

happy9 said:


> That's your response? Weak. When you can finally admit that both sides (because you have sides) are wrong then you will finally demonstrate adulthood. trump lied, hc lied, susan rice lied,  lied.  I can keep going, holder lied.  in each of these cases, US Citizens were murdered  because of lies.  It's what politicians do.  When you are smitten to one side, you ignore your own lies and highlight others.   Pathetic state of being.
> 
> But  I get it, trump is your boogey man.  At some point it (whatever the "it" flavor of the day it)  will no longer be trump's fault, then what?  I'm sure another boogey man will be picked.


Happy, where two fight, no one is right.  I see that in my own life and how I wanted to be right all the time.  That was wrong of me.  I went on a few rants and rambles on here that has made some hate me.  I want love Happy, not hate.  I'm doing my part starting today.  I see how wrong I was. Today, I'm just happy that the kids are seeing hope for sports and school


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 28, 2021)

Honest question- does anyone actually believe ANY politician? Left or Right? I think you need to be a professional liar to be in politics.


----------



## Glitterhater (Feb 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Cases are rising again in South America.  Brazil Argentina Chile Peru have all had slight turn ups. India too.  Some of these nations have been hit in prior waves (despite rigorous lockdowns) very hard. The question the talking heads are discussing is if this is some kind of seasonal effect or is it the variants at work.  Re seasonality though there has been no upturn in either Australia (despite a relaxing of lockdowns) or South Africa (despite the variant) but both may be too far south yet to feel the seasonal effects.  That sets up an awful scenario considering vaccine rollout in South America has been even more of s show then Europe.  Economically South America is on its knees and a third wave would be just devastating. Attended a talk on Thursday predicting the us, given likely approvals for 2 more vaccines coming down the pike and the vaccine refusal rate, likely faces a vaccine glut by may.  May need to donate some of that to South America before it goes bad.
> 
> In Europe the plateau effect has been hitting Scandinavia, particularly Norway which up to now had escaped the worst of things.  There are also some signs some other countries may have hit a plateau.


Am I allowed to ask what talk you attended/listened to? If you can't share, no worries.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 28, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ok, 3 weeks down: 3 to 11 weeks out now. If he thought it was a nice, blue sky 3 weeks ago, he hasn't seen anything yet.
> 
> “The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
> 
> “You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher — 450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”


4 weeks down, 2-10 to go. We did see a slight bump up this week. However, I'm feeling that the actual increase is due to the storm in TX pushing tests out making the week starting at 2/14 artificially low and pushing those tests later making the following week higher. Either way, we are flattening out which is not ideal. Next week we should be removed from the effect of that storm on testing.

Texas


US


----------



## dad4 (Feb 28, 2021)

Storm definitely threw a monkey wrench into the data.  

But the storm doesn’t explain the drift in sequencing results.  Nor does the storm explain the level spot in national numbers the last 2 weeks.  Or the fact that other countries with high past caseloads (like Brazil) are also seeing an increase.

The simplest explanation for all three is that some variants have a higher transmissibility than others.  The same behavior which leads to Rt=0.8 for vanilla covid may mean Rt=1.1 or 1.2 for some of the new variants.  (transmission is higher by 35-45% for the UK one.)

So, it isn't the storm.  It's the variant.  And, if that is correct, the national numbers will go back up over the next 3-4 weeks.  (Then drop, as total immunity gets high enough to offset the higher transmissibility.)

Which means this comment is in the correct thread.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 28, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Storm definitely threw a monkey wrench into the data.
> 
> But the storm doesn’t explain the drift in sequencing results.  Nor does the storm explain the level spot in national numbers the last 2 weeks.  Or the fact that other countries with high past caseloads (like Brazil) are also seeing an increase.
> 
> ...


Specifically, I stated, "the actual *increase* is due to the storm". I believe the numbers do show that it dropped "artificially" low for a week so when testing resumed, many positives that would have counted earlier got counted later and that's why there was an actual rise. I also state, "Either way, we are flattening out which is not ideal." So, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the variants are playing a part in that. I never said they weren't.

This is in the Bad News Thread because of the prediction of a Biden "advisor".


> “The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
> 
> “You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher — 450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”


----------



## dad4 (Feb 28, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Specifically, I stated, "the actual *increase* is due to the storm". I believe the numbers do show that it dropped "artificially" low for a week so when testing resumed, many positives that would have counted earlier got counted later and that's why there was an actual rise. I also state, "Either way, we are flattening out which is not ideal." So, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the variants are playing a part in that. I never said they weren't.
> 
> This is in the Bad News Thread because of the prediction of a Biden "advisor".


Fair enough.  

The question is whether this is a temporary flat on the way down, or the flat spot before it turns up.

We will know in a few weeks, I guess.

Osterholm says it's the flat before another, larger mountain, but I don't quite follow his numbers on that.  ( Not that I have any real qualifications. Just sport for me. )


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 28, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Am I allowed to ask what talk you attended/listened to? If you can't share, no worries.


Yeah can’t sorry. But the presentation was by some big name medical reporters talking vaccines.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 28, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Storm definitely threw a monkey wrench into the data.
> 
> But the storm doesn’t explain the drift in sequencing results.  Nor does the storm explain the level spot in national numbers the last 2 weeks.  Or the fact that other countries with high past caseloads (like Brazil) are also seeing an increase.
> 
> ...


The monkey wrench in this is that South Africa despite having what’s been reported as the worst of the variants isn’t exhibiting the same behavior (yet). I agree that the most likely explanation of what happening is the variants.  But it also doesn’t explain why all Scandinavia is behaving the same. There’s another factor here we aren’t fully understanding (maybe spring/fall season affects but who knows).


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The monkey wrench in this is that South Africa despite having what’s been reported as the worst of the variants isn’t exhibiting the same behavior (yet). I agree that the most likely explanation of what happening is the variants.  But it also doesn’t explain why all Scandinavia is behaving the same. There’s another factor here we aren’t fully understanding (maybe spring/fall season affects but who knows).


Ps the reason I bring up Norway’s is because the Norwegian borders have been closed through February.


----------



## espola (Feb 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah can’t sorry. But the presentation was by some big name medical reporters talking vaccines.


Who do they work for?


----------



## espola (Feb 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ps the reason I bring up Norway’s is because the Norwegian borders have been closed through February.


Norway, Jan 30 --

*Norway to gradually ease capital's COVID-19 lockdown from February 3*










						Norway to gradually ease capital's COVID-19 lockdown from February 3
					

The Norwegian government will gradually loosen the capital region's coronavirus lockdown, allowing some shops and recreational activities to reopen from Feb. 3 onwards, Health Minister Bent Hoeie said on Saturday.




					www.reuters.com
				




Norway, Feb 28 --

*Norway's capital tightens lockdown to fight faster virus spread*









						Norway's capital tightens lockdown to fight faster virus spread
					

Norway's capital Oslo will tighten lockdown measures to combat a sharp rise in coronavirus infections linked to a more contagious variant, the city's governing mayor said on Sunday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## dad4 (Feb 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The monkey wrench in this is that South Africa despite having what’s been reported as the worst of the variants isn’t exhibiting the same behavior (yet). I agree that the most likely explanation of what happening is the variants.  But it also doesn’t explain why all Scandinavia is behaving the same. There’s another factor here we aren’t fully understanding (maybe spring/fall season affects but who knows).


How so?  SA had a large mid winter outbreak in July/August, and a second outbreak when the SA variant hit them in January.

Seems completely consistent with a high transmissibility SA variant.  

It is the same behavior, it just hit them early, and did not come on top of a winter Christmas surge.


----------



## Grace T. (Feb 28, 2021)

dad4 said:


> How so?  SA had a large mid winter outbreak in July/August, and a second outbreak when the SA variant hit them in January.
> 
> Seems completely consistent with a high transmissibility SA variant.
> 
> It is the same behavior, it just hit them early, and did not come on top of a winter Christmas surge.


Agree but it requires some scary assumptions: that the South Africa variant was an early variant which crowded out other variants in sa leading to the dec surge, that the infection rates are much higher than testing indicates (plausible given it’s a 3rd world country) and that so many people have been infected by the new variant (including those who had the prior variants because prior immunity is imperfect) that they are now close to herd immunity. It would be a trifecta of awfulness and (is the seasonal variance isn’t holding up due to this new variant) awful news for our summer.  The only decent news then would be it’s not much deadlier seeing sa hasn’t had a wave of death on par with say Italy at the beginning of the pandemic, despite being close to herd immunity. I’m skeptical of this scenario but I agree it’s possible


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 28, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Fair enough.
> 
> The question is whether this is a temporary flat on the way down, or the flat spot before it turns up.
> 
> ...


I think we'd likely be looking at another significant wave if it wasn't for the vaccine. It wouldn't surprise me to see a relatively small mountain. However, 3 weeks from now we are looking at 20% vaccinated another 30% who haven't been vaccinated who already had it and we'll be vaccinating about 1% / day. I just don't see where the big mountain gets all its bodies.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Feb 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Agree but it requires some scary assumptions: that the South Africa variant was an early variant which crowded out other variants in sa leading to the dec surge, that the infection rates are much higher than testing indicates (plausible given it’s a 3rd world country) and that so many people have been infected by the new variant (including those who had the prior variants because prior immunity is imperfect) that they are now close to herd immunity. It would be a trifecta of awfulness and (is the seasonal variance isn’t holding up due to this new variant) awful news for our summer.  The only decent news then would be it’s not much deadlier seeing sa hasn’t had a wave of death on par with say Italy at the beginning of the pandemic, despite being close to herd immunity. I’m skeptical of this scenario but I agree it’s possible


The one thing we have going for us is that humans and viruses have been around for a long time and ... we're still around. I am assuming it's because, even with variants, severity decreases if you had an earlier version of the virus.


----------



## dad4 (Feb 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Agree but it requires some scary assumptions: that the South Africa variant was an early variant which crowded out other variants in sa leading to the dec surge, that the infection rates are much higher than testing indicates (plausible given it’s a 3rd world country) and that so many people have been infected by the new variant (including those who had the prior variants because prior immunity is imperfect) that they are now close to herd immunity. It would be a trifecta of awfulness and (is the seasonal variance isn’t holding up due to this new variant) awful news for our summer.  The only decent news then would be it’s not much deadlier seeing sa hasn’t had a wave of death on par with say Italy at the beginning of the pandemic, despite being close to herd immunity. I’m skeptical of this scenario but I agree it’s possible


Look at the median age in SA: 27.6 years. Barely over half of the median age in Italy.

You would not expect a huge wave of deaths in such a demographically young country.

Partial herd immunity aided by behavior changes seems a reasonable explanation.  Remember that, if you adopt good anti-viral practices, herd immunity comes at a lower level.   We may just be talking about a country of mostly young people, wearing masks, and spending time outside.  Add in a bit of being afraid to gather for the last few months, and those 4 factors may explain the shape of the SA curve.

Good point on the prevalence of the SA variant within SA.  If the SA variant is somehow still minor within SA, my theory is bunk.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look at the median age in SA: 27.6 years. Barely over half of the median age in Italy.
> 
> You would not expect a huge wave of deaths in such a demographically young country.
> 
> ...


Well the data out of Europe south of Scandinavia this weekend isnt great. Czech Republic is looking awful.  Poland Romania Germany Ne all rising slightly (too early to see if it’s a new wave or just a bump up but given how these things go once direction changes it’s usually the former). France and Italy plateaued. Only real bright spots in the eu are spain and Belgium which have been the hardest hit countries so far. Given the eu vaccine rollout has been such a s show so far, if this is the start of the next wave it’s really awful for them.


----------



## crush (Mar 1, 2021)

Waves are picking up all over the world


----------



## texanincali (Mar 1, 2021)

Not sure if this should go in good news or bad news thread...

Cultural appropriating teacher union president being entirely hypocritical.









						After Leading School Closures, Berkeley Teachers Union President Spotted Dropping Daughter Off at In-Person Preschool | KQED
					

Parents shoot video of Matt Meyer, president of the Berkeley Federation of Teachers, dropping his 2-year-old off for in-person instruction even as he fights against in-person instruction for Berkeley public school teachers until they are all vaccinated, which the parents' groups view as hypocrisy.




					www.kqed.org


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 1, 2021)

texanincali said:


> Not sure if this should go in good news or bad news thread...
> 
> Cultural appropriating teacher union president being entirely hypocritical.
> 
> ...


I posted that article in the good news thread, because it was good news that he’s hypocrites are being exposed one by one.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I posted that article in the good news thread, because it was good news that he’s hypocrites are being exposed one by one.


I was going to post it as well. 

They guy is for NOT opening schools, and yet he sends his kid to schools. 

Screw these people.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 1, 2021)

One of the other points that was discussed at this forum I attended was the economic implications of COVID (the talking heads were split on pent up demand v. long underlying structural damage) and the implications of printing so much money over COVID relief.  I've become substantially darker over the months in my long term outlook.  This doesn't exactly move my needle to the more sunny side of things.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366467823367843841


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I posted that article in the good news thread, because it was good news that he’s hypocrites are being exposed one by one.


So I guess the question is do you agree with what says he is for or his actions?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So I guess the question is do you agree with what says he is for or his actions?


Not sure I understand your question, because he is taking action that contradicts his other actions

His actions of taking his pre-school DD to a school outside of his district for in person learning, contradicts his other actions of not allowing in-person schooling in the district he resides over (even for pre-schoolers) because his position is that it is “not safe”.

So my thoughts are, either there is a political/union agenda that he must fall in line with to keep his job that goes against how he truly feels (this he sends his own kids to school) OR....well, I honestly can’t think of another reason why someone would do this but I’m open to listen.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Not sure I understand your question, because he is taking action that contradicts his other actions
> 
> His actions of taking his pre-school DD to a school outside of his district for in person learning, contradicts his other actions of not allowing in-person schooling in the district he resides over (even for pre-schoolers) because his position is that it is “not safe”.
> 
> So my thoughts are, either there is a political/union agenda that he must fall in line with to keep his job that goes against how he truly feels (this he sends his own kids to school) OR....well, I honestly can’t think of another reason why someone would do this but I’m open to listen.


As all rational public officials are trying to serve and protect there will always be some hypocrites. We have hypocrites calling others hypocrites, we have grown adults who believe in vampires, worldwide cabals and believe trump is secretly still president. It’s a mixed up world right now.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 1, 2021)

Passed on without commentary other than they are using the same system my son's private school (which you all described as a prison) pioneered.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366539696906657794


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> As all rational public officials are trying to serve and protect there will always be some hypocrites. We have hypocrites calling others hypocrites, we have grown adults who believe in vampires, worldwide cabals and believe trump is secretly still president. It’s a mixed up world right now.


Sorry but I don’t see how people believing in vampires or people believing that Trump is still president have anything to do with someone who is an elected official keeping people from going to school while they drop their children off at school in another district.


----------



## espola (Mar 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Passed on without commentary other than they are using the same system my son's private school (which you all described as a prison) pioneered.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366539696906657794


Is there a regional meaning to "you all" there?  Or did you mean everyone?

I must have missed the "prison" episode.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Sorry but I don’t see how people believing in vampires or people believing that Trump is still president have anything to do with someone who is an elected official keeping people from going to school while they drop their children off at school in another district.


So you missed the first part?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 1, 2021)

espola said:


> Is there a regional meaning to "you all" there?  Or did you mean everyone?
> 
> I must have missed the "prison" episode.


My roommate in college was Texan.  The y’all and country music stuck.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So you missed the first part?


No...I took it in context of the entire article.


----------



## crush (Mar 2, 2021)

Bad news is coming to get many.  Karma has no friends folks.  Time to lawyer up and this is just the beginning of playing the game, "Dominos." 

*New York Governor Cuomo hires defense lawyer in nursing home probe*

Look's like his bro can only cover him for so long and when bad news comes, he can;t cover for his bro anymore. 

“Obviously, I’m aware of what’s going on with my brother,” ((I bet you are aware of your bro)) the CNN host said on Monday. “Obviously, *I cannot cover it because he is my brother*. Now, of course CNN has to cover it. They have covered it extensively and they will continue to do so.”


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 2, 2021)

crush said:


> Bad news is coming to get many.  Karma has no friends folks.  Time to lawyer up and this is just the beginning of playing the game, "Dominos."
> 
> *New York Governor Cuomo hires defense lawyer in nursing home probe*
> 
> ...


He covered his bro early on. All accolades. 

All the press was telling us how Cuomo was the guy. Presidential even. 

And at the same time a number of outlets were pointing out he was stuffing sick people into nursing homes. 

And at the same time the major news orgs were telling us how FL was screwing the pooch. Even some on this vaunted board were saying the same about FL. 

NY is however like CA. They just don't learn. NYC elected deBlasio.


----------



## crush (Mar 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> He covered his bro early on. All accolades.
> 
> All the press was telling us how Cuomo was the guy. Presidential even.
> 
> ...


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 2, 2021)

I agree this is the most likely scenario, perhaps a bit worse or a bit better depending on the types of variants and when the children's vaccine rolls out (and how much a mess they make of it with the mandate issue).  Basically a touch and go spring (but with the IFR falling to the floor), almost back to normal summer, periodic outbreaks in the fall/winter, afterwards it becomes something like a mild flu and is pretty much forgotten.  Their biggest challenge from them on will be getting people to actually take the boosters.










						The Most Likely Timeline for Life to Return to Normal
					

An uncertain spring, an amazing summer, a cautious fall and winter, and then, finally, relief.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 2, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> when the children's vaccine rolls out


Why worry about a kids vaccine? 

As of today according to the CDC there have been 204 deaths of people 17 and under due to covid. 

Vaccinate the 65 and older age groups and that takes care of 80% or more of the problem. Then vaccinate people in other age groups that have health risks and this thing becomes a non issue. 

We cannot let the unions/politicians pretend that a vaccine is what is needed for schooling/sports, etc for the youth.

204 people over the course of a year....there is no risk to this age group whatsoever.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Why worry about a kids vaccine?
> 
> As of today according to the CDC there have been 204 deaths of people 17 and under due to covid.
> 
> ...


You and I agree on that.  But short of a rebellion by people, until there's a widely available kids vaccine, we are looking at masks in schools, some school districts (like LA and SF) in hybrid, repeated testing of kids, suspension of dances proms and other social activities, disruptions of school/sports when some kid comes down positive every once in a while, restrictions on socialization of kids.  I agree it's lunacy, but that's the most likely scenario right now for the next school year in blue states, short of a major rebellion by parents....no "normal" in the schools in major blue cities next year.  It's all getting pretty close to too late to do anything about it....if that ship is going to turn it needs to turn by April-May at the latest.  Most of the states/school districts have widely thrown the CDC's recommendations in the trash (CA even notably resuming team sports despite the CDC/Fauci saying no til blue).  But the one thing which is really hard for the big school districts to get around is the 6 foot requirement.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I agree it's lunacy, but that's the most likely scenario right now for the next school year in blue states, short of a major rebellion by parents..


This is the truth. These people will run the dog and pony safety show as long as they can.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 2, 2021)

Pretty much all of the EU, from Finland in the north (which is setting a new national record) to Greece in the south is on the rise now.  Only the island of Ireland, non-member Switzerland, and the 2 hardest hit countries of Spain (which already had 3 waves) and Belgium are being spared.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Pretty much all of the EU, from Finland in the north (which is setting a new national record) to Greece in the south is on the rise now.  Only the island of Ireland, non-member Switzerland, and the 2 hardest hit countries of Spain (which already had 3 waves) and Belgium are being spared.


Portugal too.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 2, 2021)

O.k. this is one of the more stupid tests.  First, why reward bad behavior.  Second, how many North Carolinans haven't smoked 100 cigarettes in their lifetime.  Third, if you really want the vaccine, what's to stop people from lying about it.  Fourth, if you really don't want to lie just smoke 100 cigarettes before the date....I have a feeling the smoking rate in North Carolina is about to go through the roof.  This one wins the award for stupidest vaccine test (where is that SNL skit?) if true.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366836781816176641


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> O.k. this is one of the more stupid tests.  First, why reward bad behavior.  Second, how many North Carolinans haven't smoked 100 cigarettes in their lifetime.  Third, if you really want the vaccine, what's to stop people from lying about it.  Fourth, if you really don't want to lie just smoke 100 cigarettes before the date....I have a feeling the smoking rate in North Carolina is about to go through the roof.  This one wins the award for stupidest vaccine test (where is that SNL skit?) if true.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366836781816176641


New Jersey as well.









						Smokers in N.J. Are Eligible for Vaccine. No Proof Needed. (Published 2021)
					

New Jersey is one of only two states that has included smoking among the high-risk medical conditions that make people eligible for the Covid-19 vaccine.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 2, 2021)

I'm putting this in the bad news thread for @dad4's sake.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366846908480815106


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm putting this in the bad news thread for @dad4's sake.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366846908480815106


Joining FL. I wonder how Austin is taking this? That area has been more cautious than the rest of the state from what I have heard.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 2, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Joining FL. I wonder how Austin is taking this? That area has been more cautious than the rest of the state from what I have heard.


Time for Austin to get dressed, put their boots on, and start living life again.


----------



## espola (Mar 2, 2021)

Texas' local officials blast Gov. Greg Abbott for "irresponsible action" of lifting coronavirus restrictions
					

City and county leaders urged residents in their areas to still follow recommendations from health experts and officials that call for wearing face masks in public.




					www.texastribune.org


----------



## dad4 (Mar 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm putting this in the bad news thread for @dad4's sake.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366846908480815106


Abbott is being a political twit.

He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway. 

Why?  He needs a distraction.  Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.  

So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 2, 2021)

On the bright side, the May 31 date for mass vaccination comes before the more worrisome variants can become widespread.

As long as the vaccines offer at least partial immunity, that should help us avoid a SA or Brazil variant spike this fall.

That is, unless we all decide to tear off our masks while we party like Caligula.  Then you’d still see a spike.


----------



## Glitterhater (Mar 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Abbott is being a political twit.
> 
> He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.
> 
> ...


If I can steal your favorite Grace quote, (and change it a bit,) I believe this would qualify as "Politicians gonna politic"


----------



## crush (Mar 3, 2021)

*Orange County’s coronavirus case rate misses red tier status by a fraction *

Oh well, better luck next week OC.......


----------



## espola (Mar 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Abbott is being a political twit.
> 
> He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.
> 
> ...


It's a smart bet for him.  If the apparent downward trend in infections continues, he looks like a prophet.  Otherwise, he can tough it out along with the no-mask "freedom" crowd.


----------



## whatithink (Mar 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You and I agree on that.  But short of a rebellion by people, until there's a widely available kids vaccine, we are looking at masks in schools, some school districts (like LA and SF) in hybrid, repeated testing of kids, suspension of dances proms and other social activities, disruptions of school/sports when some kid comes down positive every once in a while, restrictions on socialization of kids.  I agree it's lunacy, but that's the most likely scenario right now for the next school year in blue states, short of a major rebellion by parents....no "normal" in the schools in major blue cities next year.  It's all getting pretty close to too late to do anything about it....if that ship is going to turn it needs to turn by April-May at the latest.  Most of the states/school districts have widely thrown the CDC's recommendations in the trash (CA even notably resuming team sports despite the CDC/Fauci saying no til blue).  But the one thing which is really hard for the big school districts to get around is the 6 foot requirement.


I'm pretty sure that teachers and support staff (schools) are in the higher priority groups for the vaccine so that schools can be safely (for the adults) opened again. That's the stated position of the Pres./WH at least and is seen (from their statements) as a main priority. So I don't understand why you think this bleeds into the next school year. That strikes me as hyperbolic TBH.

As an aside, my kids are in private $chool$ and have been open for most of the current school year. There have been few outbreaks, but mask wearing and bubbles are mandatory and non-negotiable. If you don't comply, you are done. That's easier to do in a private school obv. Some kids are online due to personal choice (high risk / fear etc.). So I'm in the kids should be in school "camp" fwiw.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 3, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I'm pretty sure that teachers and support staff (schools) are in the higher priority groups for the vaccine so that schools can be safely (for the adults) opened again. That's the stated position of the Pres./WH at least and is seen (from their statements) as a main priority. So I don't understand why you think this bleeds into the next school year. That strikes me as hyperbolic TBH.
> 
> As an aside, my kids are in private $chool$ and have been open for most of the current school year. There have been few outbreaks, but mask wearing and bubbles are mandatory and non-negotiable. If you don't comply, you are done. That's easier to do in a private school obv. Some kids are online due to personal choice (high risk / fear etc.). So I'm in the kids should be in school "camp" fwiw.


Because both San Francisco and LAUSD have announced they are planning hybrid for next year.  LAUSD also has a new testing protocol (which sadly our school pioneered and the County fell in love with) requiring the testing of students (I posted the video up above).  Also the mask thing is likely to be required even in the private schools until kid's are vaccinated, and under the CDC school "reopening" plan students are required to maintain distance even in the blue.

Kids will be in school next school.  However, if you are in a public school in a large blue city it's not going to look anything like "normal" and some of that is even going to bleed into the private schools in these cities.  Even Biden yesterday said he's hoping for a return to normal generally, if we are lucky, at this time NEXT year.  And if you have an exposure, your kid is still going to be sent home until they are tested, which means disruptions.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Abbott is being a political twit.
> 
> He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.
> 
> ...


Let's save the above for future reference. 

TX won't see any spike due to the mask mandate gone and everything opening up and the vaccine being out. 

CA will lag again and months from now the data will show (again) that they may as well have followed FL and TX.


----------



## crush (Mar 3, 2021)




----------



## crush (Mar 3, 2021)




----------



## watfly (Mar 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Abbott is being a political twit.
> 
> He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.
> 
> ...


The same things were said last year when Georgia decided to open up.  It was called a an exercise in human sacrifice by the media.  The lockdowners on this site said just to wait a few weeks and deaths will skyrocket in Georgia and then it didn't happen and then lockdowners said wait a couple months, still didn't happen.  So here we are.

Personally, I might of waited maybe a month more in Texas, but someone has to be first.  Plus he is only eliminating the statewide mandate, Counties are still allowed to implement mask mandates and restrictions as they see fit, which is how it should be.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 3, 2021)

espola said:


> It's a smart bet for him.  If the apparent downward trend in infections continues, he looks like a prophet.  Otherwise, he can tough it out along with the no-mask "freedom" crowd.


That and to deflect away from people, children freezing to death due in part to his malfeasance.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> The same things were said last year when Georgia decided to open up.  It was called a an exercise in human sacrifice by the media.  The lockdowners on this site said just to wait a few weeks and deaths will skyrocket in Georgia and then it didn't happen and then lockdowners said wait a couple months, still didn't happen.  So here we are.
> 
> Personally, I might of waited maybe a month more in Texas, but someone has to be first.  Plus he is only eliminating the statewide mandate, Counties are still allowed to implement mask mandates and restrictions as they see fit, which is how it should be.


Compared to other states, Georgia's coronavirus numbers look low. That's because the state separated the cases based on if it was a PRV or antigen test.








						'Probable Deaths': Ga. changes how it reports COVID-19 numbers by the type of test used
					

Compared to other states, Georgia's coronavirus numbers look low. That's because the state separated the cases based on if it was a PRV or antigen test.




					www.11alive.com


----------



## watfly (Mar 3, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Compared to other states, Georgia's coronavirus numbers look low. That's because the state separated the cases based on if it was a PRV or antigen test.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I suspect we will be truing up definitions and numbers on Covid for years to come, as we have with other viruses.  I suspect we will also find some intentional misreporting in some instances like we've seen in New York.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Let's save the above for future reference.
> 
> TX won't see any spike due to the mask mandate gone and everything opening up and the vaccine being out.
> 
> CA will lag again and months from now the data will show (again) that they may as well have followed FL and TX.


Why bother?   Despite all the evidence, you refuse to admit there were problems in AZ.  You've got the highest death rate west of the Mississippi, and you still can't say that maybe AZ messed up.

You're still stuck comparing rates between regions that don't even share the same variant.

Why would your reaction to TX numbers be any different?   You won't pay any more attention to TX data than you pay to AZ data.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why would your reaction to TX numbers be any different? You won't pay any more attention to TX data than you pay to AZ data.


You wont see any spike in TX as you allude to. I am just reminding you now as we look at the data in a month or two. 

You have a habit of predicting DOOM for a number of states. States that have about the same numbers today as CA. 

So a question for you since you like to talk about AZ. 

When AZ had the same cases per million as CA...why was AZ death rate so much higher? 

Or today CA is at 90k cases per million and AZ is at 112K cases per million (24% difference). But the death rate is vastly different (65% difference)? 

Why is that?

--

By the way I like how you have moved to the variant (goalpost move) is the reason CA is now equal with states you said were doing it all wrong. 

Might I remind you that CA's numbers started skyrocketing at the same time pretty much everywhere else in the the Northern Hemisphere did as well. I think at that time you blamed that rise (in other countries/states) on people going to bars and restaurants. 

You are a person who likes math. You have a hard time it seems looking at real world data and squaring that with what you think the math tells you will happen...ie masks and lockdowns should prevent the rise in cases.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You wont see any spike in TX as you allude to. I am just reminding you now as we look at the data in a month or two.
> 
> You have a habit of predicting DOOM for a number of states. States that have about the same numbers today as CA.
> 
> ...


Hey Hound, apparently you are engaged in "Neanderthal thinking".  My 2 cents, the main driver of this really is seasonality.  Mobility and variants do play a roll but it's still unclear how much.  Florida probably escaped the worst because the bug doesn't seem to like the tropics (otherwise Brazil and India should have been wholesale slaughter houses).  The Texas order, less for the masks and business closures which really haven't made much of a difference anywhere (or what's happening in the EU shouldn't be happening right now), won't help with mobility as people return to "normal", but it really shouldn't make a difference once the 65+ have received their first shot (the ifr will be on the floor then).  While the Northeast probably doesn't have that much time, Texas probably has some time that in the end it won't make much of an impact.  Still, I agree it was a political move to distract from other problems in Texas.



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367192228762963971


----------



## dad4 (Mar 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You wont see any spike in TX as you allude to. I am just reminding you now as we look at the data in a month or two.
> 
> You have a habit of predicting DOOM for a number of states. States that have about the same numbers today as CA.
> 
> ...


Changing your opinion in response to new information is called "thought", not "moving the goalpost".  

Just so we are clear, I am not claiming that TX will see a third hill this spring.   I do believe that states with open indoor dining but no mask mandate will see a slower decline than states with similar seroprevalence but the opposite policies.

When doing that comparison, you should limit it to places with the same dominant variant.  Probably means we will have to exclude FL if, as expected, the British variant continues to grow there.

Willing to discuss AZ yet?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Hey Hound, apparently you are engaged in "Neanderthal thinking".
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367192228762963971


Damn, that Geico actor is going to be ANGRY.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Changing your opinion in response to new information is called "thought", not "moving the goalpost".
> 
> Just so we are clear, I am not claiming that TX will see a third hill this spring.   I do believe that states with open indoor dining but no mask mandate will see a slower decline than states with similar seroprevalence but the opposite policies.
> 
> ...


You didn't answer my AZ question.

I would also point out that basically up to now you have been making comparisons of different states/countries all the time.

I find it intellectually dishonest that now your preferred state/strategy has failed vis a vis states being open, that you now claim regions are different.

When we discussed schools opening you were very happy to say well in Israel there was a report...

Or you were happy to compare CA vs GA early on, etc. 

Etc.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You didn't answer my AZ question.
> 
> I would also point out that basically up to now you have been making comparisons of different states/countries all the time.
> 
> ...


Why does AZ have very high deaths but only moderately high cases?

Because AZ doesn't run enough tests.  

You have 820k known cases and only 4.2m tests run.   That is almost a 20% positivity rate.   You're skimping on testing and missing a ton of cases.

A good way to test this would be to look at a seroprevalence study in AZ.  If the problem is anemic testing, seroprevalence will be high.   If the problem is a more frail population, seroprevalence will be low.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My 2 cents, the main driver of this really is seasonal


I think this is likely the case.




Grace T. said:


> Still, I agree it was a political move to distract from other problems in Texas.


I am sure politics played a part. I am guessing they were about to open anyway.

Now I haven't looked this up, but I am guessing these windmills were in place before Abbot became Gov. As such he isn't tied to the issue so to speak.


----------



## espola (Mar 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I think this is likely the case.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What about the windmills?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You didn't answer my AZ question.
> 
> I would also point out that basically up to now you have been making comparisons of different states/countries all the time.
> 
> ...


It's one thing to be an expert in a field, and it's quite another to be able to predict what will happen. The ability to predict what will happen in a dynamic system implies that you have a deep understanding. Physicists have a deep understanding of planetary motion and are able to accurately predict orbits. Chemists understand many chemical reactions and, based on initial conditions, can accurately predict the outcome of reactions. Epidemiologists, on the other hand, are more like well-trained investors. They know a lot about viruses. They are knowledgeable as to how many viruses have progressed historically. Yet they still struggle to accurately predict how an individual virus will behave in the population over time. They are better at predicting than the average person, but they get it wrong, regularly. Just as stocks have their own unique characteristics, so do viruses. Both are also affected by the ever-changing environment. The list of variables is long. It's a complex, dynamic system and it appears to me that many epidemiologists that speak publically are too self-assured and not humble enough about what they don't understand. What I find most annoying though is that, after the fact, we get correlations. Now, it's housing density and/or variants. Coincidentally, all these after-the-fact correlations support their initial contention that wasn't supported by the outcome.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I think this is likely the case.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


i
Neglecting to weatherproof the windmills was a small part of the outages.

The bigger problems were isolating their grid, and not requiring companies to have equipment to dry the natural gas before transporting it.

If there is water in the gas, in cold weather it can freeze as the gas decompresses.  Then you lose pressure in the whole natural gas system, and have neither heat nor electricity.

Texas let companies choose whether to install equipment that dries the gas.  And they isolated their grid so they couldn't import power.

In all, not really windmills.  More a question of the last 20 years of Texas energy regulation and deregulation. 

And not Abbott as an individual, but definitely his party.  And it is very awkward for him to fix, since re-regulating the energy industry would earn him a lot of enemies.  

So, like any politician, he left the problems in place changed the subject.


----------



## espola (Mar 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's one thing to be an expert in a field, and it's quite another to be able to predict what will happen. The ability to predict what will happen in a dynamic system implies that you have a deep understanding. Physicists have a deep understanding of planetary motion and are able to accurately predict orbits. Chemists understand many chemical reactions and, based on initial conditions, can accurately predict the outcome of reactions. Epidemiologists, on the other hand, are more like well-trained investors. They know a lot about viruses. They are knowledgeable as to how many viruses have progressed historically. Yet they still struggle to accurately predict how an individual virus will behave in the population over time. They are better at predicting than the average person, but they get it wrong, regularly. Just as stocks have their own unique characteristics, so do viruses. Both are also affected by the ever-changing environment. The list of variables is long. It's a complex, dynamic system and it appears to me that many epidemiologists that speak publically are too self-assured and not humble enough about what they don't understand. What I find most annoying though is that, after the fact, we get correlations. Now, it's housing density and/or variants. Coincidentally, all these after-the-fact correlations support their initial contention that wasn't supported by the outcome.


It's a little early to state with any assurance that a disease that has only been detected for a little over a year, and has been running like wildfire through the world's population all that time, has any "seasonal" characteristics.


----------



## crush (Mar 3, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Mar 3, 2021)

espola said:


> It's a little early to state with any assurance that a disease that has only been detected for a little over a year, and has been running like wildfire through the world's population all that time, has any "seasonal" characteristics.


It has seasonal characteristics.  The problem comes when people want to use seasonality as an excuse for fatalism.

The logic goes,  
If it is seasonal, I can't change anything. Therefore I can still do all the things I wanted to do and not feel guilty about it.


----------



## espola (Mar 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> i
> Neglecting to weatherproof the windmills was a small part of the outages.
> 
> The bigger problems were isolating their grid, and not requiring companies to have equipment to dry the natural gas before transporting it.
> ...


Throughout the Texas freeze-up, windmills in the northern states were performing as needed.  

On the other hand, some power outages in the north have been traced to ower lines that overheated and sagged low enough to short out during heatwaves.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It has seasonal characteristics.  The problem comes when people want to use seasonality as an excuse for fatalism.
> 
> The logic goes,
> If it is seasonal, I can't change anything. Therefore I can still do all the things I wanted to do and not feel guilty about it.


No the logic goes seasonality is a driver by several factors.  You can’t control the weather. You also can’t control variants and density and demographics are baked in. So the only thing you can do to impact the thing (control now being impossible because you can’t control the aforementioned factors) is what’s remaining. To this remainder you must apply a cost/benefit analysis, the benefit being limited by the remainder portion that isn’t already baked in. The problem with the experts is they’ve exaggerated the benefit to be gained (by not excluding what’s outside their control, including certain human behavior) and failed to look at the cost.


----------



## espola (Mar 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No the logic goes seasonality is a driver by several factors.  You can’t control the weather. You also can’t control variants and density and demographics are baked in. So the only thing you can do to impact the thing (control now being impossible because you can’t control the aforementioned factors) is what’s remaining. To this remainder you must apply a cost/benefit analysis, the benefit being limited by the remainder portion that isn’t already baked in. The problem with the experts is they’ve exaggerated the benefit to be gained (by not excluding what’s outside their control, including certain human behavior) and failed to look at the cost.


So many words.  So little meaning.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 3, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10258


A Pepe’ meme? Really? How many times will you be lied to and still persist on believing?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No the logic goes seasonality is a driver by several factors.  You can’t control the weather. You also can’t control variants and density and demographics are baked in. So the only thing you can do to impact the thing (control now being impossible because you can’t control the aforementioned factors) is what’s remaining. To this remainder you must apply a cost/benefit analysis, the benefit being limited by the remainder portion that isn’t already baked in. The problem with the experts is they’ve exaggerated the benefit to be gained (by not excluding what’s outside their control, including certain human behavior) and failed to look at the cost.


Cost benefit analysis?

I don’t believe for a second that anti-mask sentiment is any more thoughtful than a three year old saying “I don’t wanna”.   Masks are not comfortable, therefore I don’t have to wear one.  That’s as deep as it goes.

It certainly is not based on a cost-benefit analysis between an X% reduction in covid transmission compared to whatever the negative consequences of masks are supposed to be.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 3, 2021)

espola said:


> So many words.  So little meaning.


“Oh magoo, you’ve done it again old bean!”


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Cost benefit analysis?
> 
> I don’t believe for a second that anti-mask sentiment is any more thoughtful than a three year old saying “I don’t wanna”.   Masks are not comfortable, therefore I don’t have to wear one.  That’s as deep as it goes.
> 
> It certainly is not based on a cost-benefit analysis between an X% reduction in covid transmission compared to whatever the negative consequences of masks are supposed to be.


We’ve had this discussion before. The issue with masks is in a macro level they have very little benefit fir a variety of reasons: people use them imperfectly, they reuse the masks or use poor cloth ones, they use them for too long and get them wet, undermines distancing, they use them for situations they weren’t intended (visiting grandma indoors for 3 hours at Christmas). No where in the world has the mask mandates been able to change the direction of a curve and neighboring county analysis shows repeatedly very little benefit if any. So small benefit: might keep some people going into the grocery store from catching something or at the hair salon if the infected dresser is standing behind them. 

There is a cost: psychological damage particularly to small children and people with certai disorders such as autism (but yeah you don’t care about the autistic), societal harm since we are social creatures that read faces (but yeah you’re an I so don’t understand that), the costs of the masks (they aren’t free) and the environmental damage

So yeah they are probably worth it for certain indoor situations. Mandating them outside is laughable.  And we should temper our expectations of what they can do, which is minimal.


----------



## espola (Mar 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We’ve had this discussion before. The issue with masks is in a macro level they have very little benefit fir a variety of reasons: people use them imperfectly, they reuse the masks or use poor cloth ones, they use them for too long and get them wet, undermines distancing, they use them for situations they weren’t intended (visiting grandma indoors for 3 hours at Christmas). No where in the world has the mask mandates been able to change the direction of a curve and neighboring county analysis shows repeatedly very little benefit if any. So small benefit: might keep some people going into the grocery store from catching something or at the hair salon if the infected dresser is standing behind them.
> 
> There is a cost: psychological damage particularly to small children and people with certai disorders such as autism (but yeah you don’t care about the autistic), societal harm since we are social creatures that read faces (but yeah you’re an I so don’t understand that), the costs of the masks (they aren’t free) and the environmental damage
> 
> So yeah they are probably worth it for certain indoor situations. Mandating them outside is laughable.  And we should temper our expectations of what they can do, which is minimal.


You're babbling.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 3, 2021)

espola said:


> You're babbling.


Your car as usual is all over the road. At least it’s a cute one!


----------



## dad4 (Mar 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We’ve had this discussion before. The issue with masks is in a macro level they have very little benefit fir a variety of reasons: people use them imperfectly, they reuse the masks or use poor cloth ones, they use them for too long and get them wet, undermines distancing, they use them for situations they weren’t intended (visiting grandma indoors for 3 hours at Christmas). No where in the world has the mask mandates been able to change the direction of a curve and neighboring county analysis shows repeatedly very little benefit if any. So small benefit: might keep some people going into the grocery store from catching something or at the hair salon if the infected dresser is standing behind them.
> 
> There is a cost: psychological damage particularly to small children and people with certai disorders such as autism (but yeah you don’t care about the autistic), societal harm since we are social creatures that read faces (but yeah you’re an I so don’t understand that), the costs of the masks (they aren’t free) and the environmental damage
> 
> So yeah they are probably worth it for certain indoor situations. Mandating them outside is laughable.  And we should temper our expectations of what they can do, which is minimal.


That isn't a cost benefit analysis.

That's a long complaint list from someone who doesn't wanna.

And the scientific community believes you are flat out wrong about the benefits side.

Though I am amused at your lecturing a math geek about the needs of the autistic.   You don't get through math grad school without meeting several.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That isn't a cost benefit analysis.
> 
> That's a long complaint list from someone who doesn't wanna.
> 
> ...


Yes it is. Part of the problem is you and your ilk apparently don’t know how to do one

Grad school huh?  Try putting one on a screaming 12 year old like my bestie is forced to do...they’ve just taken to avoiding taking him anywhere indoors because of it and when their grandmother died drove to Indiana because they couldn’t fly.   These aren’t the aspberger high functioning ones....these are people with perception and nerve issues. Way to show compassion there if you know so many.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes it is. Part of the problem is you and your ilk apparently don’t know how to do one
> 
> Grad school huh?  Try putting one on a screaming 12 year old like my bestie is forced to do...they’ve just taken to avoiding taking him anywhere indoors because of it and when their grandmother died drove to Indiana because they couldn’t fly.   These aren’t the aspberger high functioning ones....these are people with perception and nerve issues. Way to show compassion there if you know so many.


Now you’re just pouting and whining. A paper on the wall does not in itself signify intelligence. 50% of the lawyers in this world were in the bottom half of their class.


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> A Pepe’ meme? Really? How many times will you be lied to and still persist on believing?


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

Here you go Husker, EOTL ((and all his other aliases)), The Great Espola ((Mr Magoo)) and Long Game ((EOTL)).  Do you see what I see?  Do you read this as a bit odd for our children to comprehend?  Please do help me understand the truth because I confused.  Thank you in advance


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Now you’re just pouting and whining. A paper on the wall does not in itself signify intelligence. 50% of the lawyers in this world were in the bottom half of their class.


Haha. That’s funny. I’d put up my credentials and iq against yours any day of the week. Pm me yours and we’ll exchange. Come on. It will be fun.


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

My mommy said I was a cowboy when I was young Grace.  This song is so me Grace.  I was a nice guy wrapped in a sucker....lol!  You and Hound have owned these fools for almost a year.  You win sister and Hound wins too.  Great job to the both of you.  Now, sit back and get ready for some serious eye opening things that will make even you realize you were very wrong about one person.  Actually, many many will see how wrong they were.  As long as we admit were wrong, we can grow.


----------



## watfly (Mar 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's one thing to be an expert in a field, and it's quite another to be able to predict what will happen. The ability to predict what will happen in a dynamic system implies that you have a deep understanding. Physicists have a deep understanding of planetary motion and are able to accurately predict orbits. Chemists understand many chemical reactions and, based on initial conditions, can accurately predict the outcome of reactions. Epidemiologists, on the other hand, are more like well-trained investors. They know a lot about viruses. They are knowledgeable as to how many viruses have progressed historically. Yet they still struggle to accurately predict how an individual virus will behave in the population over time. They are better at predicting than the average person, but they get it wrong, regularly. Just as stocks have their own unique characteristics, so do viruses. Both are also affected by the ever-changing environment. The list of variables is long. It's a complex, dynamic system and it appears to me that many epidemiologists that speak publically are too self-assured and not humble enough about what they don't understand. What I find most annoying though is that, after the fact, we get correlations. Now, it's housing density and/or variants. Coincidentally, all these after-the-fact correlations support their initial contention that wasn't supported by the outcome.


If an "expert" could predict the future they wouldn't be on TV providing an opinion, working for the CDC, doing research at some prestigious university and least of all posting on a soccer forum.  They would be sitting on the beach of their own private island sipping Mojitos.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

crush said:


> My mommy said I was a cowboy when I was young Grace.  This song is so me Grace.  I was a nice guy wrapped in a sucker....lol!  You and Hound have owned these fools for almost a year.  You win sister and Hound wins too.  Great job to the both of you.  Now, sit back and get ready for some serious eye opening things that will make even you realize you were very wrong about one person.  Actually, many many will see how wrong they were.  As long as we admit were wrong, we can grow.


Whose the person?  Dad4?  I like dad4....it’s just at this point he should be seriously questioning the company he keeps...other than espola, husker and notf (if he’s even a sock puppet separate from husker) he’s pretty much alone out there now and taking ridiculous positions like don’t do cost/benefit analysis on health policy.  Kind of mirrors the health experts who are also increasingly alone out there....you know there’s an issue when even California throws your school reopening plan in the trash and it takes days of agonizing and you still cant say fully vaccinated grandparents can’t hug their grandkids. Eotl?  Even dad4 can’t stand him.  Notf?  Sorry the c word is a red line kind of like throwing the n word...no go.  Husker?  Sorry anyone that obsessed with a throw away band you’ve got to wonder about...I don’t go around calling myself “The bangles”. Magoo?  He’s actually quite bright and in his day must have been fearsome...sad but it happens to us all.

Ps I love cowboys. In an alternate universe I’m Amy Fleming.


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> If an "expert" could predict the future they wouldn't be on TV providing an opinion, working for the CDC, doing research at some prestigious university and least of all posting on a soccer forum.  They would be sitting on the beach of their own private island sipping Mojitos.


Or just sitting on the beach waiting patiently for the big shoe to drop.  Love is the key watfly, not hate and division.  Were all in this together.  You cant be dualistic anymore, only American.  This is not Right vs Left, or this over that or my way is the only way ((Unless you have the keys to eternity)).  Sit back and do not retaliate and let the pros handle things.


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Whose the person?


Not dad, that's for sure.  I have no respect for math pros who play with numbers to make their PC point right.  Like I said before, I played monopoly as a kid and it seemed that the banker won most of the time.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

crush said:


> Not dad, that's for sure.  I have no respect for math pros who play with numbers to make their PC point right.  Like I said before, I played monopoly as a kid and it seemed that the banker won most of the time.


Play socialist monopoly.  It’s much more fun.

With him it’s not a pc point. He’s very un pc. His position on trans would get him cancelled in an academic environment. He just desperately for some psychological reason needs to believe the bug can actually be controlled so he lashes out whenever that notion is attacked


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Play socialist monopoly.  It’s much more fun.


Too funny   The more I think about it, that game was insane.  I now remember throwing my adopted mom out on the streets because she couldnt pay for the hotel stay at one of places.  She begged me for grace and even deferment and I said, "too bad, you should have saved for a rainy day....lol!  When I was banker Grace, I was bad and stole $500 bills when no one was looking so I could buy hotels easier and win.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Haha. That’s funny. I’d put up my credentials and iq against yours any day of the week. Pm me yours and we’ll exchange. Come on. It will be fun.


I don't know, Grace. Are there credentials that are higher than a multi-aliased, trolling misanthrope?


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 4, 2021)

Thought for the day. 

SF and LA school districts don't want to be fully open next year. They are planning on at best hybrid. 

By summer most anyone who wants or needs a vaccine will have one. 

Kids have zero risk so even without them getting a vaccine there is no risk. 

And yet despite that the people that run those areas are not planning on full time school?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 4, 2021)

crush said:


> Here you go Husker, EOTL ((and all his other aliases)), The Great Espola ((Mr Magoo)) and Long Game ((EOTL)).  Do you see what I see?  Do you read this as a bit odd for our children to comprehend?  Please do help me understand the truth because I confused.  Thank you in advance
> 
> View attachment 10260


Never heard of the Cardi B thing til now. Not appropriate for general consumption no doubt. Now on the fact that a private company (once again) decided to pull what they alone deemed inappropriate merchandise from their line is their prerogative. You “privatize everything” people never think these things through do you? If a private company doesn’t want to offer a service, like say bake a cake for a gay wedding, do you feel they have the right to withhold their services?


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> *Hounds* Thought for the day:
> 
> SF and LA school districts don't want to be fully open next year. They are planning on at best hybrid.
> 
> ...


I made a correction.  I want to know your inner thoughts bro.  Great job.  I also acknowledge you beat me a few times back during the Toxic war between ECNL vs GDA.  Love you man


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Never heard of the Cardi B thing til now. Not appropriate for general consumption no doubt. Now on the fact that a private company (once again) decided to pull what they alone deemed inappropriate merchandise from their line is their prerogative. You “privatize everything” people never think these things through do you? If a private company doesn’t want to offer a service, like say bake a cake for a gay wedding, do you feel they have the right to withhold their services?


I have no idea about baking a cake and selling the cake, but I will say this.  If you own a bakery on Main St, you better bake a cake for anyone that wants to buy one.  Is that clear?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Thought for the day.
> 
> SF and LA school districts don't want to be fully open next year. They are planning on at best hybrid.
> 
> ...


Remember how fast CA changed these past few weeks regarding outdoor sports? This is WAY out in time. I'd be very surprised if kids aren't back in school full-time in SF and LA this fall unless we get that "Category 5" wave of virus Osterholm is predicting. Give it a little time. SF will worry about getting kids back in school once they get those pesky school names changed. Priorities, Hound. Priorities.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 4, 2021)

This one is for you @dad4 









						Texas Removes Mask Mandate To Scare All The Californians Away
					

“The last thing we need is a bunch of sissies from California moving to our beautiful state of Texas and screwing everything up and turning the state blue!” said Governor Abbott during a Lubbock Chamber of Commerce event. “Too many Californians have entered our state. Too many ridiculous liberal...




					babylonbee.com


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Remember how fast CA changed these past few weeks regarding outdoor sports? This is WAY out in time. I'd be very surprised if kids aren't back in school full-time in SF and LA this fall unless we get that *"Category 5" *wave of virus Osterholm is predicting. Give it a little time. SF will worry about getting kids back in school once they get those pesky school names changed. Priorities, Hound. Priorities.


Change the "Cat 5" language to "Mavericks Wave" from way outside, MOO


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> SF will worry about getting kids back in school once they get those pesky school names changed. Priorities, Hound. Priorities.


I agree. Changing those names comes first. 

I would feel very uncomfortable and unsafe if my kids had to go to a school called Abraham Lincoln.


----------



## crush (Mar 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I agree. Changing those names comes first.
> 
> I would feel very uncomfortable and unsafe if my kids had to go to a school called Abraham Lincoln.


Honest Abe?  I guess not.  Was he killed for being a liar liar or for standing up for Freedom for all and truth?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Remember how fast CA changed these past few weeks regarding outdoor sports? This is WAY out in time. I'd be very surprised if kids aren't back in school full-time in SF and LA this fall unless we get that "Category 5" wave of virus Osterholm is predicting. Give it a little time. SF will worry about getting kids back in school once they get those pesky school names changed. Priorities, Hound. Priorities.


Depends on how insistent people are and how quick the floor collapses from under them.  There’s only a few months before those plans get locked in stone and then there’s still the masks, mandated testing and mandated quarantines for exposure too.  Well know if the floor is collapsing if Biden changes his tune about back to normal in 1 year...he’s the bell weather


----------



## espola (Mar 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Never heard of the Cardi B thing til now. Not appropriate for general consumption no doubt. Now on the fact that a private company (once again) decided to pull what they alone deemed inappropriate merchandise from their line is their prerogative. You “privatize everything” people never think these things through do you? If a private company doesn’t want to offer a service, like say bake a cake for a gay wedding, do you feel they have the right to withhold their services?


Carbi B didn't win any award named"song of the year" as far as I can tell, but it won 2020 American Music Awards "Favorite Rap/Hip Hop Song".

And Cat in the Hat is not banned; in fact it is one of the Amazon best sellers this week apparently because of the controversy.  

Of the Suess books suspended from publication, I hadn't read Scrambled Eggs Super! so I found it online --  






I suspect that one sinned in its use of "Wogs" as a nonsense rhyme for frogs, not realizing the already had an established meaning in British colonialism.


----------



## espola (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Depends on how insistent people are and how quick the floor collapses from under them.  There’s only a few months before those plans get locked in stone and then there’s still the masks, mandated testing and mandated quarantines for exposure too.  Well know if the floor is collapsing if Biden changes his tune about back to normal in 1 year...he’s the bell weather


...bellwether.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

espola said:


> ...bellwether.


iPhone.


----------



## espola (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> iPhone.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes it is. Part of the problem is you and your ilk apparently don’t know how to do one
> 
> Grad school huh?  Try putting one on a screaming 12 year old like my bestie is forced to do...they’ve just taken to avoiding taking him anywhere indoors because of it and when their grandmother died drove to Indiana because they couldn’t fly.   These aren’t the aspberger high functioning ones....these are people with perception and nerve issues. Way to show compassion there if you know so many.


Skin sensitivity is actually kind of common in math circles.  Paul Erdoes is the most obvious example, though he made it worse with his meth habit.  

That doesn’t mean I expect the world to change the rule to handle the exception.  We, as a country, should be using masks to get a handle on the pandemic.  Once we have the general rule, then we can ask whether there are exceptions.

The funeral example is telling.  You want to end the mask rule so it’s easier to get to funerals.  I want to keep the mask rule so we have fewer funerals to attend.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 10265


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Skin sensitivity is actually kind of common in math circles.  Paul Erdoes is the most obvious example, though he made it worse with his meth habit.
> 
> That doesn’t mean I expect the world to change the rule to handle the exception.  We, as a country, should be using masks to get a handle on the pandemic.  Once we have the general rule, then we can ask whether there are exceptions.
> 
> The funeral example is telling.  You want to end the mask rule so it’s easier to get to funerals.  I want to keep the mask rule so we have fewer funerals to attend.


You really need to believe they make a difference, don't you?  Have you asked yourself why?


----------



## watfly (Mar 4, 2021)

I find it fascinating that 12 months later we're still trying to claim with some authority common denominators for Covid, particularly that if we dealt with those common denominator we could impact Covid.  NEWSFLASH, the virus doesn't give a shit about common denominators (nor as I mentioned before does it give a shit about math.)  This is clearly obvious by the fact that every area has had uncorrelated results in relation to the restrictions implemented (with the exception of islands maybe).  Its certainly not the housing in California nor is it the alcohol consumed in Utah and likely not the weather.  It also turns out it wasn't the Super Bowl either.   (BTW I consumed way more alcohol when I lived in Utah vs. California, but that's only a sample size of one)

This is not fatalism, its reality.  We're pretending to fight Covid at the expense of small business and our children.  It's security theatre.  Am I saying we should do nothing, nope.  Wear a mask when you are indoors in public when you can't socially distance, its far from foolproof but it may provide some protection.  Use common sense.  Move activities outdoors if possible.  Or if your uncomfortable with that stay at home.  But for F's sake open schools and business 100%.  Your personal cost/benefit may be negligible, but please don't use that to restrict behaviors for others, that's the ultimate in selfishness.

I'm going to go out on a limb here but I bet that GraceT, Desert Hound, Kickingandscreaming, Kicker4life, all have lived their lives in a fairly normal way but have taken common sense precautions.  I going to guess that none of them have spread the virus to anyone else, if they even got it.  I'd say our family lived our lifes about 90% normal to the extent we could.  12 months in and none of our family, extended family, social friends and office colleagues have even got Covid (knocking on wood) despite vacations, out of state soccer, family gatherings and outdoor cocktail parties including the Super Bowl and my wife's 50th birthday.

Dad4 you should be taking a victory lap for predicting youth sports would resume in March.  As recent as two weeks ago, I thought there was no f'ing way that would be the case.  Now we were right and wrong for the wrong reasons, but still, I'm stoked that you were right.  I wished had put a wager on it with you because I would have happily honored the bet with takeout delivered to your home.


----------



## watfly (Mar 4, 2021)

So this probably should go in the good news thread since its so comical, but its in a sad way so it goes here.  What's crazy is people were swooning over what a great job Coumo was doing.  On Facebook, people were posting how great Coumo was and how they had a crush on him with heart emoji's.  How they couldn't wait to watch his press conferences.  Like I said then, and I say now, the guy may be the biggest conman ever in politics.  He's certainly great at gaslighting.  Coumo is evil smart, DeBlasio is a stone cold idiot.









						Cuomo rips de Blasio, NYC amid apology over sex harassment claims
					

Gov. Andrew Cuomo took time to take a swipe at Mayor Bill de Blasio and New York City during a press briefing Wednesday where he repeatedly apologized over sexual harassment accusations leveled aga…




					nypost.com
				












						De Blasio: Cuomo’s NYC Comments Are ‘What Donald Trump Would Have Done’
					

Cuomo said that New York City was "teetering."




					www.ny1.com


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## dad4 (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You really need to believe they make a difference, don't you?  Have you asked yourself why?


Sure.  I believe masks work against covid because multiple peer reviewed studies say they work against covid.









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.




					www.cdc.gov
				




The estimates of effectiveness range from 70-79% reduction in transmission.  

That’s the difference between R=3.0 and R=0.63 to 0.9


You really believe masks do not work.  Have you ever asked yourself why?  It’s not the science, because the scientists disagree with you.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sure.  I believe masks work against covid because multiple peer reviewed studies say they work against covid.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What's going on with the planet disagrees with them.  The issue is they were caught in the theoretical instead of real world applications.  Then they were caught having made this recommendation (after having reversed 1 time) and had to then justify it.  And yes I know why....I'm a skeptic.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> What's going on with the planet disagrees with them.  The issue is they were caught in the theoretical instead of real world applications.  Then they were caught having made this recommendation (after having reversed 1 time) and had to then justify it.  And yes I know why....I'm a skeptic.


The ”planet” is a giant ball of iron and rock.  ”The planet” can’t support your position any more than “the planet” can dance the Charleston.

Multiple studies, both laboratory and real world, have concluded that masks work.  These studies look at the same planet you do.  They are just conducted by people who know what they are doing, in a way that you and I do not.

There is a fine line between being a skeptic and being a stubborn fool.  At some point, you have to accept new data or you become the latter.


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## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The ”planet” is a giant ball of iron and rock.  ”The planet” can’t support your position any more than “the planet” can dance the Charleston.
> 
> Multiple studies, both laboratory and real world, have concluded that masks work.  These studies look at the same planet you do.  They are just conducted by people who know what they are doing, in a way that you and I do not.
> 
> There is a fine line between being a skeptic and being a stubborn fool.  At some point, you have to accept new data or you become the latter.


It's funny you say this despite the real world evidence around you.  There's only been one real study of it, the Denmark study, with less than stellar results which in the end didn't really prove much of anything either way.  The rest are observational studies and CDC propaganda that they've needed to justify their policies and reputation.  You are paying so close attention to the shells you aren't seeing the real game here: which is around the world mask mandates still haven't worked and have been a disaster.  Again, look at the company you are keeping these days.  Proud of them?


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## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's funny you say this despite the real world evidence around you.  There's only been one real study of it, the Denmark study, with less than stellar results which in the end didn't really prove much of anything either way.  The rest are observational studies and CDC propaganda that they've needed to justify their policies and reputation.  You are paying so close attention to the shells you aren't seeing the real game here: which is around the world mask mandates still haven't worked and have been a disaster.  Again, look at the company you are keeping these days.  Proud of them?


And here's the sad part for the so-called experts.  Back in May/June, everyone was praising the Czech Republic for being an early adopter of masks and controls.  In the summer the Czech Republic had virtually no COVID and was being held up as the ideal to the world about what masking and social distancing could do.  But they had a late summer outbreak.  Then a disastrous winter and actually had one of the few countries in Europe where hospital usage exceeded capacity so they had to ship patients to Poland and Germany.  But now they are having yet another wave, reaching as high as the winter peak, and the worst death rate in Europe.

Now....I know what you'll say.....it's because they relaxed the mask mandate in the summer.  But that  hard mask mandate has been in place since September so they've had nearly 6 months to work.

I've never said don't wear a mask.  When going indoors for shopping I happily wear one.  It might actually surprise you that even though I'm suspected case I don't do a lot of indoor shopping....I'm cautious and avoid it when I can.  When friends ask for advice, I say it's a good idea to wear a mask indoors, and I think Texas probably removed the mandate a month early.  I also believe that masks help a little (they might help an individual avoid getting it in the waiting room of a doctor's office, or at the pharmacy or grocery stores with short time periods).  But the truth is they help very little or we'd see a more substantial impact and not what happened in the Czech Republic.  But their time is almost done, and when the elderly are vaccinated, they should go everywhere.  We don't do this for the flu.  And when the elderly are vaccinated, the ifr will be about the same as a bad flu season.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's funny you say this despite the real world evidence around you.  There's only been one real study of it, the Denmark study, with less than stellar results which in the end didn't really prove much of anything either way.  The rest are observational studies and CDC propaganda that they've needed to justify their policies and reputation.  You are paying so close attention to the shells you aren't seeing the real game here: which is around the world mask mandates still haven't worked and have been a disaster.  Again, look at the company you are keeping these days.  Proud of them?


Denmark study was medical masks for incoming virus.  It made no attempt to study outgoing virus. 

USS Roosevelt study seems more relevant.

Company I’m keeping?  I dropped any support for Coumo months ago when I realized what he’d done by returning partially recovered patients to nursing homes.


----------



## Yours in futbol (Mar 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> Am I saying we should do nothing, nope.  Wear a mask when you are indoors in public when you can't socially distance, its far from foolproof but it may provide some protection.  Use common sense.  Move activities outdoors if possible.  Or if your uncomfortable with that stay at home.  But for F's sake open schools and business 100%.  Your personal cost/benefit may be negligible, but please don't use that to restrict behaviors for others, that's the ultimate in selfishness.
> 
> I'm going to go out on a limb here but I bet that GraceT, Desert Hound, Kickingandscreaming, Kicker4life, all have lived their lives in a fairly normal way but have taken common sense precautions.


That's really the problem.  People disingenuously claim that they will wear masks and take precautions, but the moment things loosen up, there is a sudden push against wearing masks and everyone wants to resume all indoor activities without any precautions.  

We would be a lot better off if people would just agree to do exactly what you describe--take reasonable precautions like wear masks, socially distance, move activities outdoors if possible.

But half the country absolutely refuses to do that so we have to rely on either increased testing or increased vaccinations.  Fortunately, a year after the virus hit, California is finally able to close the gap on both of these.


----------



## watfly (Mar 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The ”planet” is a giant ball of iron and rock.  ”The planet” can’t support your position any more than “the planet” can dance the Charleston.
> 
> Multiple studies, both laboratory and real world, have concluded that masks work.  These studies look at the same planet you do.  They are just conducted by people who know what they are doing, in a way that you and I do not.
> 
> There is a fine line between being a skeptic and being a stubborn fool.  At some point, you have to accept new data or you become the latter.


It appears that you only think of a skeptic in the pejorative sense.  There is quite a big between a skeptic and being a stubborn fool.  Just as there is a big difference between believing masks help and being a blind follower and thinking they're a panacea.  You seem to assume that because someone is mask skeptic that they are being careless or encouraging others to be careless because that benefits your narrative.  That isn't the case in most circumstances.  Being a skeptic in the absence of significant evidence is oftentimes healthy.

Just look at yourself.  When I posted up the opinions of the National Academy of Science and the American Academy of Pediatrics supporting reopening schools because the risk of covid was less than the other risks to children you called it BS.  Now that there are is endless data proving this you're a proponent of reopening in person education.  You had a higher benchmark for evidence than I did for reopening schools, just as GraceT and I have a higher benchmark for the effectiveness of masks than you do.  I could argue that my skepticism is more warranted because of Fauci's initial comments and prior pre-Covid studies that questioned the effectiveness of masks outside a clinical setting, but at the end of the day we all have our biases based on our personalities and life experiences.  However, to claim my skepticism of masks is more dangerous than your skepticism of reopening schools is simply nonsense.


----------



## espola (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> What's going on with the planet disagrees with them.  The issue is they were caught in the theoretical instead of real world applications.  Then they were caught having made this recommendation (after having reversed 1 time) and had to then justify it.  And yes I know why....I'm a skeptic.


Skeptic?  Is that what that is?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Denmark study was medical masks for incoming virus.  It made no attempt to study outgoing virus.
> 
> USS Roosevelt study seems more relevant.
> 
> Company I’m keeping?  I dropped any support for Coumo months ago when I realized what he’d done by returning partially recovered patients to nursing homes.


I told you the issue with the Roosevelt study.  It didn't distinguish between caution and masks.   Those that wore masks were also generally more cautious and avoided places like the rec rooms.  I agree being more cautious reduces the chances you get the virus.

By company I meant your pals Magoo, Husker, and NOTF.


----------



## espola (Mar 4, 2021)




----------



## MicPaPa (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I told you the issue with the Roosevelt study.  It didn't distinguish between caution and masks.   Those that wore masks were also generally more cautious and avoided places like the rec rooms.  I agree being more cautious reduces the chances you get the virus.
> 
> By company I meant your pals Magoo, Husker, and NOTF.


All clearly textbook cases of permanent TDS damage.


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## Hüsker Dü (Mar 4, 2021)

crush said:


> I have no idea about baking a cake and selling the cake, but I will say this.  If you own a bakery on Main St, you better bake a cake for anyone that wants to buy one.  Is that clear?


So who should control what a publisher puts out?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This one is for you @dad4
> 
> 
> 
> ...


But they aren’t. Businesses are still enforcing masks and distancing. It was possibly a good political move and deflection away from his incompetence, because incompetence is the cool thing for trumpists.


----------



## watfly (Mar 4, 2021)

Yours in futbol said:


> We would be a lot better off if people would just agree to do exactly what you describe--take reasonable precautions like wear masks, socially distance, move activities outdoors if possible.


This approach should have been done in the beginning as opposed to the often arbitrary and speculative restrictions that were implemented in some cases for obvious political restrictions.  There was no buy-in or credibility for blanket lockdowns.  Hence you got a wide variance of compliance, which you would have to some extent regardless, but not to the extent that its pro-lockdowners vs. anti-lockdowners, us vs. them etc.  An "open with restrictions" would have been a more effective solution than "do what I say, and don't argue science with me".  Even though some may have been skeptical at the time, it seems compliance during "flatten the curve" was pretty good.  It was the nonsense after that where many of us lost the plot.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> This approach should have been done in the beginning as opposed to the often arbitrary and speculative restrictions that were implemented in some cases for obvious political restrictions.  There was no buy-in or credibility for blanket lockdowns.  Hence you got a wide variance of compliance, which you would have to some extent regardless, but not to the extent that its pro-lockdowners vs. anti-lockdowners, us vs. them etc.  An "open with restrictions" would have been a more effective solution than "do what I say, and don't argue science with me".  Even though some may have been skeptical at the time, it seems compliance during "flatten the curve" was pretty good.  It was the nonsense after that where many of us lost the plot.


Some of us said at the time (way back in May) that the lockdowns should be preserved for the severe times (like winter 2020) and not used in the happy times such as the summer when cases were low.  But  SoCal was having a moderate summer bump (due in part to what was happening with Mexico and the border) that in comparison to the winter looks tiny.  Given the new baselines, it's also pretty clear that California tiers were just way to sensitive.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Some of us said at the time (way back in May) that the lockdowns should be preserved for the severe times (like winter 2020) and not used in the happy times such as the summer when cases were low.  But  SoCal was having a moderate summer bump (due in part to what was happening with Mexico and the border) that in comparison to the winter looks tiny.  Given the new baselines, it's also pretty clear that California tiers were just way to sensitive.


How does the Mexico border explain _nationwide_ case spikes in June-August?

That spike was caused by a combination of protests and mask-free reopening.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

Meanwhile California wants double masking


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367590862616600578


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Meanwhile California wants double masking
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367590862616600578


I suspect that we will see CA got it wrong again with respect to what TX and others are doing.

By the way...where is the science on double masking? Why stop at 2? I personally prefer 6. That way I can also cover the ears. Somewhere someone said the covid likes to travel through the ear canal which means not only can you get covid that way, but likely will go deaf if it happens.

By the way...this belongs in the bad news thread. It is bad news that people like this get voted into office.





__





						California City Bans New Gas Stations in Latest Climate Change Effort | Brad Polumbo
					

As the debate over climate policy continues to heat up, one California city just took an unprecedented step: Banning all new gas stations. But this unprecedented intervention will inevitably backfire.



					fee.org


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## Desert Hound (Mar 4, 2021)

Here is an effective double masking strategy.


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## watfly (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Meanwhile California wants double masking
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367590862616600578


If two are better than one, wouldn't three or four work even better?  I mean we've gone from zero to two.  Based on the trend common sense would tell you as many as can get on would be best.


----------



## espola (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Some of us said at the time (way back in May) that the lockdowns should be preserved for the severe times (like winter 2020) and not used in the happy times such as the summer when cases were low.  But  SoCal was having a moderate summer bump (due in part to what was happening with Mexico and the border) that in comparison to the winter looks tiny.  Given the new baselines, it's also pretty clear that California tiers were just way to sensitive.


Happy times such as the summer --

June 20 - about 180,000 new cases a week
July 21 - about 480,000 new cases a week (the peak of that wave)
September 20 - about 360,00 new cases a week (near the trough before the big wave)


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> If two are better than one, wouldn't three or four work even better?  I mean we've gone from zero to two.  Based on the trend common sense would tell you as many as can get on would be best.


Masks were common place in Asia before this and will be after.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Masks were common place in Asia before this and will be after.


You know you always make powerful arguments. They eat more bugs too. I just enhanced your point.


----------



## watfly (Mar 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Masks were common place in Asia before this and will be after.


Agreed.  See how easy that is to find common ground.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I suspect that we will see CA got it wrong again with respect to what TX and others are doing.
> 
> By the way...where is the science on double masking? Why stop at 2? I personally prefer 6. That way I can also cover the ears. Somewhere someone said the covid likes to travel through the ear canal which means not only can you get covid that way, but likely will go deaf if it happens.
> 
> ...


Remember when razors had one blade?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Masks were common place in Asia before this and will be after.


In Japan though they wear them when they go out sick or to protect against allergies.  They don’t wear them asymptomatically to prevent others from getting sick


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Remember when razors had one blade?


Game, set, match.


----------



## espola (Mar 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I suspect that we will see CA got it wrong again with respect to what TX and others are doing.
> 
> By the way...where is the science on double masking? Why stop at 2? I personally prefer 6. That way I can also cover the ears. Somewhere someone said the covid likes to travel through the ear canal which means not only can you get covid that way, but likely will go deaf if it happens.
> 
> ...


if we had somehow gotten to this point without the use of gasoline-powered transportation, there is no way a gasoline industry would be permitted.


----------



## watfly (Mar 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Remember when razors had one blade?


It never ceases to amaze me how much "technology" they can put into razors and toothbrushes.

BTW more is always better.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In Japan though they wear them when they go out sick or to protect against allergies.  They don’t wear them asymptomatically to prevent others from getting sick


They do now.  So do most people in the US.  It works.

We are down to maybe 1/3 of the country that insists on their "right" to spread disease.  

The majority of the country is with the program.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> They do now.  So do most people in the US.  It works.
> 
> We are down to maybe 1/3 of the country that insists on their "right" to spread disease.
> 
> The majority of the country is with the program.


And there you go again. Look around. All the states experienced the latest rise starting about the same time. Strict states, less strict and not very strict.

If masks really worked the data would show it.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In Japan though they wear them when they go out sick or to protect against allergies.  They don’t wear them asymptomatically to prevent others from getting sick


How does one know when they are asymptomatic?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And there you go again. Look around. All the states experienced the latest rise starting about the same time. Strict states, less strict and not very strict.
> 
> If masks really worked the data would show it.


The data does show it.  It's in multiple peer reviewed papers.   You just don't have the statical chops to review the data.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How does one know when they are asymptomatic?


Yah...I’ve never thought of it until this past year, but I wonder how many asymptomatic cases of Influenza  or any other virus we have each year?  

Not making any type of Q or maggat conspiracy, just one of those “things that make you say, hmmm...”


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> How does the Mexico border explain _nationwide_ case spikes in June-August?
> 
> That spike was caused by a combination of protests and mask-free reopening.


If you'll recall, this was the spike that was driven by the southern states from Florida-California, excluding New Mexico.   Also LA County had in place masks starting in April and never relaxed it, so mask-free reopening is bunk because we still got the summer bump.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you'll recall, this was the spike that was driven by the southern states from Florida-California, excluding New Mexico.   Also LA County had in place masks starting in April and never relaxed it, so mask-free reopening is bunk because we still got the summer bump.


It appears that there is a correlation between masking and variants, or, maybe it is masking policy and variants


----------



## crush (Mar 5, 2021)




----------



## crush (Mar 5, 2021)




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## crush (Mar 5, 2021)




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## crush (Mar 5, 2021)




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## Desert Hound (Mar 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The data does show it.  It's in multiple peer reviewed papers.   You just don't have the statical chops to review the data.


Actual real world data shows otherwise.

And related to that now after listening to you compare regions/states/countries for a yr ...now within the past week ago you don't like. Mainly because you cannot explain why CA with some of the most strict policies has done no better covid wise compares to the other 2 largest states in the union who took very different policy decisions.

If masks made a significant difference the real world data would show it. It doesn't. To be honest if it did, you would be referencing the data ALL the time.


----------



## watfly (Mar 5, 2021)

This is just a clip, but Real Sports last episode did a segment on youth sports during Covid.  Surf Cup is covered in this clip.  Check out the full segment.  They did their best to portray youth sports during Covid in a negative light, but IMO they failed.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 5, 2021)

Also I am a skeptic.

Over the past yr the various governments have constantly changed their opinion on various items. Masks being one of them. 

Now they want masks because they want to be able to offer up some solution. So we have some recent small studies put out by the governments that support their policy.

The problem I have is that the CDC studied mask usage over the course of decades. During those decades there was no political pressure one way or the other.

The studies found that masks didn't stop the spread of the flu. More interestingly these studies where done mainly in medical settings. Settings where you had professionals who knew how to use masks, used new masks, following hygiene protocol, etc. And masks didn't work.

That is research over decades.

Now think about that and then factor in that covid supposedly spreads easier vs the flu.

I am not skeptical about the decades of studies. I am however very skeptical of new studies that now contradict decades of research while at the same time mirroring the political policy .


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> This is just a clip, but Real Sports last episode did a segment on youth sports during Covid.  Surf Cup is covered in this clip.  Check out the full segment.  They did their best to portray youth sports during Covid in a negative light, but IMO they failed.


I notice that clip doesn't talk about kids actually getting the virus. I suspect if they had the data it would be front and center.

So we get.. we don't like this because people might get sick...but don't have any evidence of people actually getting sick.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Actual real world data shows otherwise.
> 
> And related to that now after listening to you compare regions/states/countries for a yr ...now within the past week ago you don't like. Mainly because you cannot explain why CA with some of the most strict policies has done no better covid wise compares to the other 2 largest states in the union who took very different policy decisions.
> 
> If masks made a significant difference the real world data would show it. It doesn't. To be honest if it did, you would be referencing the data ALL the time.


Actual data, as interpreted by whom?  By you?

You don’t have the statistical background to run the numbers.  You have, what?  An MBA?  For biostatistical work, an MBA is weaker than the first two years of an undergraduate stats degree.  

You’re still trying to compare viral growth patterns when one strain has R0=3 and the other strain has R0=4.  Then you claim “Look, the state with the more transmissible virus had an outbreak!”.

What did you expect?  Next you’re going to tell me that a Viper is faster than a Dart, even though both are Dodge vehicles.  Clearly the Viper has a better driver.

In this case, the Dart came is slightly ahead of the Viper, and you’re giving the driver no credit.


----------



## crush (Mar 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I notice that clip doesn't talk about kids actually getting the virus. I suspect if they had the data it would be front and center.
> 
> So we get.. we don't like this because people might get sick...but don't have any evidence of people actually getting sick.


Hound, we all know what this was about and just makes me sick to my stomach.  Am I surprised by how some adults use kids as pawns so they can win?  Hell no!!!!  Sad state of affairs, MOO!


----------



## watfly (Mar 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I notice that clip doesn't talk about kids actually getting the virus. I suspect if they had the data it would be front and center.
> 
> So we get.. we don't like this because people might get sick...but don't have any evidence of people actually getting sick.


They do in the full segment talk about some infections back East, but no mention of the severity.  I would assume if it was severe illness or deaths they would have mentioned it.  But yes more about negative perceptions than actual risk.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> They do in the full segment talk about some infections back East, but no mention of the severity.  I would assume if it was severe illness or deaths they would have mentioned it.  But yes more about negative perceptions than actual risk.


That’s news media.  It’s hard to tell a story in 3 minutes.  So you cut corners and group things together.  From a disease perspective, let them play is completely different from driving to Yuma.  But it gets lumped together because they have no time to talk about local/travel and indoor/outdoor.

You have an outbreak from an indoor travel tournament in Placer, and it gets used to justify cracking down on local outdoor play.


----------



## watfly (Mar 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s news media.  It’s hard to tell a story in 3 minutes.  So you cut corners and group things together.  From a disease perspective, let them play is completely different from driving to Yuma.  But it gets lumped together because they have no time to talk about local/travel and indoor/outdoor.
> 
> You have an outbreak from an indoor travel tournament in Placer, and it gets used to justify cracking down on local outdoor play.


100%


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> They do in the full segment talk about some infections back East, but no mention of the severity.  I would assume if it was severe illness or deaths they would have mentioned it.  But yes more about negative perceptions than actual risk.


I unfortunately only saw the clip you posted and not the full thing.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Actual data, as interpreted by whom?  By you?
> 
> You don’t have the statistical background to run the numbers.  You have, what?  An MBA?  For biostatistical work, an MBA is weaker than the first two years of an undergraduate stats degree.
> 
> ...


Well again you cannot seem to point to any success. If they worked the data would be rather clear.

Now you seemed rather concerned that TX was dropping mask mandates and allowing biz to be 100% open.

So if masks, biz not at capacity, etc work, we should expect to see their covid stats start noticeably deviating from the rest of the US right? And rather soon right?

Or will you move the goalposts again?


----------



## crush (Mar 5, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Mar 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well again you cannot seem to point to any success. If they worked the data would be rather clear.
> 
> Now you seemed rather concerned that TX was dropping mask mandates and allowing biz to be 100% open.
> 
> ...


You’re right.  Mask advocates can’t point to any successes.   Except for all of East Asia.  And the Pacific Northweast.  And Germany.  So, masks haven’t worked for anyone, except for about 2 billion people.

What happens in Texas depends on how many Texans actually make use of Abbott’s decision.

Major retailers are keeping their mask rules.  If smaller stores follow Walmart’s example, you may not see a significant change in mask usage.   

Willing to take me up on the continental US question?  compare death rates in all 48 continental US states, exclude anyone with a spring peak or high transmissibility dominant variant, and look up the mask policies of the best and worst 10 states.

Fair measure, or not?


----------



## whatithink (Mar 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re right.  Mask advocates can’t point to any successes.   Except for all of East Asia.  And the Pacific Northweast.  And Germany.  So, masks haven’t worked for anyone, except for about 2 billion people.
> 
> What happens in Texas depends on how many Texans actually make use of Abbott’s decision.
> 
> ...


I wonder how much the exposure to SARs and H1N1 in East Asia, from a mask / precaution perspective along with an immunity build up, has impacted the overall deaths. I do think their ability to act quickly and get compliance immediately was definitely helped. The immunity one, idk, but its possible I'd think, but I'm no expert.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 5, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I wonder how much the exposure to SARs and H1N1 in East Asia, from a mask / precaution perspective along with an immunity build up, has impacted the overall deaths. I do think their ability to act quickly and get compliance immediately was definitely helped. The immunity one, idk, but its possible I'd think, but I'm no expert.


You can look at the 15 year old studies of SARS-cov1 seroprevalence.   SARS was quite rare, infecting less than 1% of the population.  As such, cross immunity from SARS is not a good explanation for the low incidence of covid in East Asia.









						Risk-stratified seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus among children in Hong Kong - PubMed
					

As in adults, subclinical severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection was rare in children in the 2003 epidemic. The very low seroprevalence implies little or no population herd immunity to protect against future resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome.




					pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




Cultural habits from SARS, like mask wearing and staying home when mildly sick, are a more likely explanation for the east asian experience with covid.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Also I am a skeptic.
> 
> Over the past yr the various governments have constantly changed their opinion on various items. Masks being one of them.
> 
> ...


Here, you go, hound.

Real scientists did the county by county statistical regression analysis on 49 states worth of indoor dining and mask mandates.

Mask mandates work to reduce covid.  Indoor dining works to increase covid.  p<0.01









						Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...
					

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...




					www.cdc.gov
				




I know.  You’re imagining a giant egghead conspiracy to lie to you about masks.  Because, an international science conspiracy is more likely than you making a mistake.


----------



## watfly (Mar 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Here, you go, hound.
> 
> Real scientists did the county by county statistical regression analysis on 49 states worth of indoor dining and mask mandates.
> 
> ...


Correct me if I'm wrong but this appears to be a correlation study, not a causation study (realizing a real world causation study would be very difficult given the lack of reliable contract tracing).   I have to believe masks work to some extent, but I'm not sure this is compelling proof.  To me there are just too many variables involved even though the study said it used regression analysis to eliminate variables.  However, when someone mentions regression analysis my eyes roll back in my head and I blackout, so maybe I'm not the best person to make that assessment.

When I look at things in totality (as opposed to CDC slices) it doesn't appear restrictions made any significant difference in state by state results.  Results are all over the place regardless of the level of the restrictions.  Masks may have very well improved results, but I believe the mask mandates, or may better said, "mask use" was not as variable from state to state as the "lockdown" restrictions.  Give or take mask usage was much more universal relatively speaking.


----------



## NorCalDad (Mar 5, 2021)

I step away for a few weeks and it looks like we're still debating masks.....sigh


----------



## met61 (Mar 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Here, you go, hound.
> 
> Real scientists did the county by county statistical regression analysis on 49 states worth of indoor dining and mask mandates.
> 
> ...


Has anyone else noticed that a lot of the folks who are perfectly fine with forever masking also struggle to pick up on social cues and the finer nuances of human communication?

I'm not saying this is a universal rule, but it does strike me as a trend. And not to be rude, but people who don't understand the importance of facial communication probably shouldn't have a say in how long we go without seeing each other's faces.

Moreover, people who don't understand the value of normal human communication should not be the ones weighing the health risks of COVID against the social harm of lockdowns.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Here, you go, hound.
> 
> Real scientists did the county by county statistical regression analysis on 49 states worth of indoor dining and mask mandates.
> 
> ...


Have been seeing a lot of criticism of this particular study.  Here's the most compact summary of the criticism....basically they did a county level study but ignored the county mandates (looking at only the state mandates).  It's a very easy question to answer: in those states for those periods that did not adopt a mask mandate, what does the comparison of side by side counties look like...you control for variants and weather that way.  They did a few of these early on but stopped doing it because the data didn't look very good.  At this point the CDC is desperately trying to justify its policies and is engaging in work which if produced by private institutions would be laughable.  Their comprehensive review of observational studies was another because it didn't even mention the usual problems such as the control problem with the Roosevelt study.  It's unheard of for the CDC to behave this recklessly (or as with the schools reopening plan which apparently so far only North Carolina is in favor of and only after a governor's veto couldn't be overriden by 1 vote) given the other outstanding work they've done in the past.  Sorry dad, but that schools "reopening" plan is all the proof you need to see that they are no longer really an objective participant in all this (and the great irony is that you were the first on these boards to catch them at their shell game when it came to the schools....after discovering that for yourself it's surprising you are giving them this much deference....you know the old fool me once rule).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367900427023380482


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Have been seeing a lot of criticism of this particular study.  Here's the most compact summary of the criticism....basically they did a county level study but ignored the county mandates (looking at only the state mandates).  It's a very easy question to answer: in those states for those periods that did not adopt a mask mandate, what does the comparison of side by side counties look like...you control for variants and weather that way.  They did a few of these early on but stopped doing it because the data didn't look very good.  At this point the CDC is desperately trying to justify its policies and is engaging in work which if produced by private institutions would be laughable.  Their comprehensive review of observational studies was another because it didn't even mention the usual problems such as the control problem with the Roosevelt study.  It's unheard of for the CDC to behave this recklessly (or as with the schools reopening plan which apparently so far only North Carolina is in favor of and only after a governor's veto couldn't be overriden by 1 vote) given the other outstanding work they've done in the past.  Sorry dad, but that schools "reopening" plan is all the proof you need to see that they are no longer really an objective participant in all this (and the great irony is that you were the first on these boards to catch them at their shell game when it came to the schools....after discovering that for yourself it's surprising you are giving them this much deference....you know the old fool me once rule).
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367900427023380482


For example.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1362829949439074307


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For example.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1362829949439074307


Or....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357789053345693696


----------



## dad4 (Mar 5, 2021)

met61 said:


> Has anyone else noticed that a lot of the folks who are perfectly fine with forever masking also struggle to pick up on social cues and the finer nuances of human communication?
> 
> I'm not saying this is a universal rule, but it does strike me as a trend. And not to be rude, but people who don't understand the importance of facial communication probably shouldn't have a say in how long we go without seeing each other's faces.
> 
> Moreover, people who don't understand the value of normal human communication should not be the ones weighing the health risks of COVID against the social harm of lockdowns.


Perhaps, when someone agrees with you, you assume they are more socially adept.  And, when someone disagrees with you, you assume they are naturally disagreeable.

There is a pattern there, but it has nothing to do with the speaker and everything to do with the listener.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Or....
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1357789053345693696


The other criticism I’ve seen is that the study does not fully capture the impact of the winter wave when even places like California went up.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For example.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1362829949439074307


You’re trying to refute a regression with a pair of side by side comparisons carefully selected by advocates?

Do you want to explain why that line of reasoning is worthless, or shall I?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 5, 2021)

met61 said:


> Has anyone else noticed that a lot of the folks who are perfectly fine with forever masking also struggle to pick up on social cues and the finer nuances of human communication?
> 
> I'm not saying this is a universal rule, but it does strike me as a trend. And not to be rude, but people who don't understand the importance of facial communication probably shouldn't have a say in how long we go without seeing each other's faces.
> 
> Moreover, people who don't understand the value of normal human communication should not be the ones weighing the health risks of COVID against the social harm of lockdowns.


One of the great disconnects here I suspect is we have a lot of i (introverted health policy experts who went into their fields because it offered a way to manage data and policy instead of patients and staff) who have very little idea or empathy of what the es (highly extroverted people) are going through. Really think about it....the idea that 20 somethings who aren’t married or cohabitating are going to go a year without dating Or have a fling...does anyone really imagine that’s possible?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The other criticism I’ve seen is that the study does not fully capture the impact of the winter wave when even places like California went up.


See your earlier comment on variants.  If you grant the importance of correcting for variants, you can’t bring up the socal winter spike without correcting for the variant that made it as large as it was.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re trying to refute a regression with a pair of side by side comparisons carefully selected by advocates?
> 
> Do you want to explain why that line of reasoning is worthless, or shall I?


Oh I’m not holding up the slide by slide comparison as the rubric. I’m just saying if the cdc were serious about doing a county by county analysis they would have used the county level mandates and side by side county results as the basis for their study. They did a few early on but then stopped when the charges of date selectivity came up.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> See your earlier comment on variants.  If you grant the importance of correcting for variants, you can’t bring up the socal winter spike without correcting for the variant that made it as large as it was.


Again though a comparison of county by county mandates of side by side counties in states without full mandates would have corrected for that. The examples do exist as I’ve pointed out


----------



## met61 (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Perhaps, when someone agrees with you, you assume they are more socially adept.  And, when someone disagrees with you, you assume they are naturally disagreeable.
> 
> There is a pattern there, but it has nothing to do with the speaker and everything to do with the listener.


Or, I'm over the target.


----------



## crush (Mar 6, 2021)

met61 said:


> Or, I'm over the target.


I would say you're over the target sir.  First, they come up with a Scam.  Second, they come up with a Plan to make the Scam work.  Third, you need to Demic up the population and then add the following names to it: Epi and or Pan.   I personally would use Scam and Plan instead or Epi and Pan to Demic, but that's MOO.  The good news today is I'm driving South to watch my dd ball.  I hope she can run today.  She got a slicer on her foot surfing the other day.


----------



## espola (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re trying to refute a regression with a pair of side by side comparisons carefully selected by advocates?
> 
> Do you want to explain why that line of reasoning is worthless, or shall I?


Ooh! ooh!  Pick me Mr kotter!

Is it because it is intellectually dishonest?


----------



## met61 (Mar 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> One of the great disconnects here I suspect is we have a lot of i (introverted health policy experts who went into their fields because it offered a way to manage data and policy instead of patients and staff) who have very little idea or empathy of what the es (highly extroverted people) are going through. Really think about it....the idea that 20 somethings who aren’t married or cohabitating are going to go a year without dating Or have a fling...does anyone really imagine that’s possible?


Amazing who folks blindly bestow power upon, then so willfully bow to them. Listen to the LA teachers union president sometime, a real gem with power.


----------



## crush (Mar 6, 2021)

espola said:


> Ooh! ooh!  Pick me Mr kotter!
> 
> Is it because it is intellectually dishonest?


----------



## crush (Mar 6, 2021)

I had a dream last night.  All these word's were eradicated from Mr Webster and Mr Wiki.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 6, 2021)

This is from last yr. The science hasn't changed. The politics has.

_“It seems kind of intuitively obvious that if you put something—whether it’s a scarf or a mask—in front of your nose and mouth, that will filter out some of these viruses that are floating around out there,” says Dr. William Schaffner, professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University. The only problem: that’s not effective against respiratory illnesses like the flu and COVID-19.* If it were, “the CDC would have recommended it years ago,” he says.* 

The science, according to the CDC, says that surgical masks won’t stop the wearer from inhaling small airborne particles, which can cause infection. *Nor do these masks form a snug seal around the face.*_

The above is what the CDC and other orgs were saying for decades.

_*








						Health Experts Are Telling Healthy People Not to Wear Face Masks for Coronavirus. So Why Are So Many Doing It?
					

The government and most health experts keep telling the public not to wear face masks for coronavirus. So why are they doing it anyway?




					web.archive.org
				



*_


----------



## dad4 (Mar 6, 2021)

Quick analysis of b.1.117 (UK variant), and the next 2 months.

Nationally-  number of cases is doubling a bit faster than once per two weeks.  (R = 1.4 or so.).  Currently at 15K or so cases per day.  Expect it to continue doubling until vaccines cover enough additional people to counteract the higher R.  That is, we need to vaccinate 4/14 of those who are not yet immune.   2/7 x .84 = another 24% of the country.   80 M more people vaccinated.  2 months before it turns around for vaccines.   4 more doublings.   120K cases per day peak.

Big things I missed: 1- recovered b.1.117 cases will bring the peak lower.  2- Any vaccinations will slow the doubling, even if we don’t get to 80M more.  3- Over excited reopening will make the peak go higher.   I am treating these as offsetting each other, but I suspect the third factor is bigger than the first or second.

California-  b.1.117 has stalled at 15% of cases.  Dad guess is that b.1.117 can’t make further inroads because it isn’t much stronger than the already dominant LA variant.  If true, it means CA won’t have a b.1.117 peak.  However, CA is opening dining, theaters, and stadiums, so expect case counts to remain high for a while.  Case counts can’t go up too far without putting us back in purple and closing it all down again.  

So, another national peak in the 100K-150K cases per day range.  CA hanging out at the red/purple boundary.  (Cases go down, open something stupid.  Our stupid thing forces cases back up, close down the stupid.  Repeat.)

Be glad the line for soccer is at 14 instead of at yellow.  With dining open, I am no longer optimistic that we can hit yellow this spring.

(again, not an epidemiologist.  So don’t take this too seriously.)


----------



## dad4 (Mar 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is from last yr. The science hasn't changed. The politics has.
> 
> _“It seems kind of intuitively obvious that if you put something—whether it’s a scarf or a mask—in front of your nose and mouth, that will filter out some of these viruses that are floating around out there,” says Dr. William Schaffner, professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University. The only problem: that’s not effective against respiratory illnesses like the flu and COVID-19.* If it were, “the CDC would have recommended it years ago,” he says.*
> 
> ...


If you read your *March 2020* article carefully, you will notice they are still asking whether a mask protects the wearer.  As you noted, we had been asking that question for decades.  

It turns out that is the wrong question. 

The science did change.  We got smart enough to ask a better question:  Does a mask protect other people from the wearer?

This is why you had to find the article on archive.org.  The science in the article is out of date, and the original publisher does not want to publish out of date and misleading information.


----------



## met61 (Mar 6, 2021)

Hmm.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 6, 2021)

met61 said:


> Hmm.
> View attachment 10320


Any single cause explanation will lead to a mismatch graph like that.  That's why people run models and regressions like the CDC one.

Besides, you want mask usage versus Rt.   It will still be a mismatch, but at least it will be the right mismatch.


----------



## espola (Mar 6, 2021)

met61 said:


> Hmm.
> View attachment 10320


To make this an objective experiment, one would also have to show the result on a vulnerable population that mostly didn't wear masks.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Quick analysis of b.1.117 (UK variant), and the next 2 months.
> 
> Nationally-  number of cases is doubling a bit faster than once per two weeks.  (R = 1.4 or so.).  Currently at 15K or so cases per day.  Expect it to continue doubling until vaccines cover enough additional people to counteract the higher R.  That is, we need to vaccinate 4/14 of those who are not yet immune.   2/7 x .84 = another 24% of the country.   80 M more people vaccinated.  2 months before it turns around for vaccines.   4 more doublings.   120K cases per day peak.
> 
> ...


By the way. You know which state has a big rise in the UK variant? 

FL.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Quick analysis of b.1.117 (UK variant), and the next 2 months.
> 
> Nationally-  number of cases is doubling a bit faster than once per two weeks.  (R = 1.4 or so.).  Currently at 15K or so cases per day.  Expect it to continue doubling until vaccines cover enough additional people to counteract the higher R.  That is, we need to vaccinate 4/14 of those who are not yet immune.   2/7 x .84 = another 24% of the country.   80 M more people vaccinated.  2 months before it turns around for vaccines.   4 more doublings.   120K cases per day peak.
> 
> ...


By the way. We will watch TX and the other open states. Based on what we have seen over the last yr,  there won't be a spike.

References...90% percent of kids are in schools in FL and TX. CA is about 5%

These states didn't shut down restaurants and biz. CA did.

Today all are about equal.

CA screwed the pooch.

Oh yeah the latest excuse for the reason the numbers are the same is that CA has a variant. Well FL does too. In theory their UK variant is worse vs the standard one as well.

Either way in about 4-6 weeks I lay money TX/FL don't have numbers and different vs CA.

At that point what will @dad4 have to say?

He out a marker out per say when he said TX abandoning masks and allow biz full capacity was a big problem.

We are just weeks away from seeing what happens...right?


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Either way in about 4-6 weeks I lay money TX/FL don't have numbers and different vs CA.


By different I mean going in a different direction vs CA.

I suspect we will see no spikes in the open states vs the closes ones.


----------



## watfly (Mar 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> One of the great disconnects here I suspect is we have a lot of i (introverted health policy experts who went into their fields because it offered a way to manage data and policy instead of patients and staff) who have very little idea or empathy of what the es (highly extroverted people) are going through. Really think about it....the idea that 20 somethings who aren’t married or cohabitating are going to go a year without dating Or have a fling...does anyone really imagine that’s possible?


It's also the difference between those that work in a lab, clinical situation or research environment where you can control or eliminate variables vs. those that work in the real world where you can't control variables and instead have to make cost benefit decisions based on best available evidence, experience, probabilities and gut instinct.  Not only is Covid not a math problem, neither is real life.


----------



## watfly (Mar 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> _*Nor do these masks form a snug seal around the face.*_


Actually they solved that with their recommendation to wear two masks, or so they claim.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way. You know which state has a big rise in the UK variant?
> 
> FL.


Yes.  FL is up to about 30%.

It makes it hard to compare FL to other states, for the same reason as socal.  Different variant, but same logic.

If you want to bet on TX/FL versus CA, you'll have to define what you mean by "different".   If FL ha 30% higher cases in early April, does that count as "same" or "different"?

And CA is opening indoor dining, so the comparison may be moot.  It is not unlikely that we see 3 different outcomes, but one set of policies.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way. We will watch TX and the other open states. Based on what we have seen over the last yr,  there won't be a spike.
> 
> References...90% percent of kids are in schools in FL and TX. CA is about 5%
> 
> ...


With respect to schools, I mostly agree.  CA could and should have opened schools months ago.

Of course, the smart way to do it is in cohorts.  Unfortunately, at many schools, the teachers aren't exactly polymaths.  Asking them to cover 6 topics is kind of crazy.

With respect to Dad4 predictions, I will make my own, thanks.  My December line held up until early March when indoor dining opened and invalidated the assumptions.  I think I did pretty well with that one.

Current Dad4 prediction is a small national bump in April, topping out between 100k and 150k cases per day.  CA prediction is we hang out at the red/purple boundary : more than 4 and less then 14 cases per 100k per day.   CA Prediction becomes invalid if indoor dining, amusement parks, and stadiums stay open as cases rise.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Quick analysis of b.1.117 (UK variant), and the next 2 months.
> 
> Nationally-  number of cases is doubling a bit faster than once per two weeks.  (R = 1.4 or so.).  Currently at 15K or so cases per day.  Expect it to continue doubling until vaccines cover enough additional people to counteract the higher R.  That is, we need to vaccinate 4/14 of those who are not yet immune.   2/7 x .84 = another 24% of the country.   80 M more people vaccinated.  2 months before it turns around for vaccines.   4 more doublings.   120K cases per day peak.
> 
> ...


"2/7 x .84"

Are you are saying only 16% of the nation is currently immune? A higher percentage than that already has their first shot (about 17.5%). Don't people that already had it also "count"?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, another national peak in the 100K-150K cases per day range.  CA hanging out at the red/purple boundary.  (Cases go down, open something stupid.  Our stupid thing forces cases back up, close down the stupid.  Repeat.)
> 
> (again,* not an epidemiologist.  So don’t take this too seriously.*)


Yeah, this is kind of weak, @dad4. Below is what real epidemiologists are predicting. We should take him seriously, right?









						Epidemiologist Warns a Covid-19 'Hurricane Is Coming' With New Variant
					

“We still want to get two [vaccine] doses in everyone, but I think right now, in advance of this surge, we need to get as many one-doses in as many people over 65 as we possibly can,” D…




					www.rollingstone.com
				




Osterholm predicted that B117, the more contagious strain of the virus that is sweeping England and has been found in pockets of the United States, will become the dominant strain of the virus in the country. *“If we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell us we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” *he said. “That hurricane is coming. We have to understand that because of this surge, we do have to call an audible.”

*The epidemiologist said if we see a surge of the new variant this spring, it will be worse than the previous surges.* “We saw our health care system literally on the edge of not being able to provide care,” Osterholm said. “Imagine if we have what has happened in England, twice as many of those cases


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> "2/7 x .84"
> 
> Are you are saying only 16% of the nation is currently immune? A higher percentage than that already has their first shot (about 17.5%). Don't people that already had it also "count"?


This is my critique as well. By all indications people that have had it have at least partial immunity. There haven’t been a lot of reinfections in the uk from the group that got it early on. 

I do think he is right there will be another surge in the us (based alone on what’s happening in europe. Interestingly hard hit Belgium Spain and Switzerland are not part of the surge). Florida is a likely candidate not just because of variants but because of the seasonality effect.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is my critique as well. By all indications people that have had it have at least partial immunity. There haven’t been a lot of reinfections in the uk from the group that got it early on.
> 
> I do think he is right there will be another surge in the us (based alone on what’s happening in europe. Interestingly hard hit Belgium Spain and Switzerland are not part of the surge). Florida is a likely candidate not just because of variants but because of the seasonality effect.


Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see another "surge" such as @dad4 predicts. The sad thing is there will be a lot of older folks who declined the vaccine that will needlessly die if we have any surge. We'll see the rate of death for those that had the vaccine and those that didn't. I don't believe that will be pretty. There will also likely be older folks that get it from healthcare workers who had the opportunity to get the vaccine and refused.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 6, 2021)

About whether people who have already had it also count:

They would count, if we knew who they are.   For most of them, we do not know.   

As a result, when we vaccinate, we don't get to choose whether we vaccinate people with natural immunity.  We vaccinate the immune and non-immune equally, without knowing which is which.

We have 16% who have been vaccinated.  The other 84% are, in some sense, in line for the vaccine.  The remaining infectable population lies within that 84%.

If you want to innoculate 2/7 of the infectable population, you do that by innoculating 2/7 of the people in line for the vaccine.  (Some of whom were already immune, but didn't know it.). That's how I got 2/7 of 84%.

Now, if we are delaying vaccines for all known recovered patients, then 84% is the wrong number.  It's more like 75%, because you get to subtract out known recovered patients before you start vaccinating.   This would drop the peak slightly.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> About whether people who have already had it also count:
> 
> They would count, if we knew who they are.   For most of them, we do not know.
> 
> ...


Apparently in California at least the advice is no vaccine if you’ve had covid in the last 90 days.  My friend was scheduled to have the shot next week but came down with covid two weeks ago and his appointment canceled through his employer.  I don’t know however how tough the screening questions are or if the protocol is the same in all states.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> About whether people who have already had it also count:
> 
> They would count, if we knew who they are.   For most of them, we do not know.
> 
> ...


We are primarily vaccinating old folks. We know they didn't already have it because they are still alive to get it. C'mon man, you didn't really say, "they would count if we know who they were", did you? You created an upper bound. Why don't you finish your analysis and give a lower bound?


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## dad4 (Mar 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> We are primarily vaccinating old folks. We know they didn't already have it because they are still alive to get it. C'mon man, you didn't really say, "they would count if we know who they were", did you? You created an upper bound. Why don't you finish your analysis and give a lower bound?


2/7 of .75 is about 22% instead of 24%.

Works out about the same.  Moves it up a few days.

The other compromises and numeric cheats I made are much worse than that one.  That's why I don't treat it as an upper or lower bound.  It was a crude SWAG.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Storm definitely threw a monkey wrench into the data.
> 
> But the storm doesn’t explain the drift in sequencing results.  Nor does the storm explain the level spot in national numbers the last 2 weeks.  Or the fact that other countries with high past caseloads (like Brazil) are also seeing an increase.
> 
> ...


It's only been 6 days but the cases don't really support that: "It's the variant." If the variant pushed the graph from falling quickly to concave up and even rising, why has the graph been dropping since Feb 26 and concave down since Feb 24? if the variant is taking over, we would see an acceleration in cases due to the R being > 1. So, maybe it is the Super Bowl effect. That would explain a short bump up then a continued downward, trend that is concave down. I'm not denying that the variant won't eventually take over and may cause a rise in cases, but the data doesn't appear to be supporting that yet.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's only been 6 days but the cases don't really support that: "It's the variant." If the variant pushed the graph from falling quickly to concave up and even rising, why has the graph been dropping since Feb 26 and concave down since Feb 24? if the variant is taking over, we would see an acceleration in cases due to the R being > 1. So, maybe it is the Super Bowl effect. That would explain a short bump up then a continued downward, trend that is concave down. I'm not denying that the variant won't eventually take over and may cause a rise in cases, but the data doesn't appear to be supporting that yet.
> 
> View attachment 10321


the NYT has some graphs that break out the variant cases from the normal cases.  Variant is still exponentially growing outside of CA.  Think of it as two different diseases with two different R.  the above graph shows their sum.

It’s roughly similar to 4(0.9)^T + 1(1.1)^T near T=0.  first term is regular covid, second term is UK.  

the sum slopes down for now, but that will change as the variant grows from 20% to over 50%.  2 weeks?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> the NYT has some graphs that break out the variant cases from the normal cases.  Variant is still exponentially growing outside of CA.  Think of it as two different diseases with two different R.  the above graph shows their sum.
> 
> It’s roughly similar to 4(0.9)^T + 1(1.1)^T near T=0.  first term is regular covid, second term is UK.
> 
> the sum slopes down for now, but that will change as the variant grows from 20% to over 50%.  2 weeks?


This is good stuff - and I understand it. My point was simply that the "bump" we saw isn't supported by the variant taking over as once it takes over, it should accelerate overall cases. The fact that the growth didn't increase and actually started to fall again indicates the bump-up was caused by something else.


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## crush (Mar 6, 2021)

I woke


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## kickingandscreaming (Mar 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Quick analysis of b.1.117 (UK variant), and the next 2 months.
> 
> Nationally-  number of cases is doubling a bit faster than once per two weeks.  (R = 1.4 or so.).  Currently at 15K or so cases per day.  Expect it to continue doubling until vaccines cover enough additional people to counteract the higher R.  That is, we need to vaccinate 4/14 of those who are not yet immune.   2/7 x .84 = another 24% of the country.   80 M more people vaccinated.  2 months before it turns around for vaccines.   4 more doublings.   120K cases per day peak.
> 
> ...


This is very interesting data, @dad4. Thanks for posting it. After some sleep and coffee, I have some “I’m not an epidemiologist and I didn’t even stay in a Holiday Inn Express” thoughts.

What is the population distribution for the variant? The distribution of the population who are susceptible to the virus has changed dramatically with the vaccine. While the case rate is important, it is much less important than the rate of death and hospitalization. Since last Tuesday, AZ was vaccinating 55 and older. Nationally, 80% of the deaths have come from 65 and older. So, as long as we are “spitballing”, let’s say 70% of those over 65 got a vaccine and it protects them from serious illness 90% of the time (that may be high for older folks).

% of 65 and older protected from serious illness = 0.7*0.9 = 0.63 —> 0.37 of over 65’s can still get a “serious” infection

So, where we would normally expect 80 deaths of the 100 total, we get 0.37*80 or about 30 deaths. This effectively cuts the rate of death by 50%. There is a belief that the variant is more deadly. My guess is, as with most initial numbers on the disease, they are overestimating considerably. Let’s say it’s 20% more. That would raise deaths to 1.2*30 = 36 and the effective drop is 44%, not 50%. Of course, the percent of olders getting vaccinated is increasing daily. Once we get to all the 55 year olds, that’s about 90% of the deaths. I’m calling this a wash given the numbers of the variant are still relatively low. You also mention that you have a constant “doubling” every two weeks and that will obviously slow with vaccinations.

On the “bad” end, as you state, behavior can change effective R. I tend to be optimistic that this will not be a significant factor. I believe most people’s behavior is pretty much “baked-in” and not subject to external restrictions as much as those who make the restrictions would like to believe. People that want to get the vaccine (about 2/3?) will likely be cautious until they get it. Those willing to be involved in riskier behaviors are already doing so. Unfortunately, the variant will likely affect the poorer, more crowded areas even more inordinately than the initial strain. To begin with, the virus is spreading faster there - at least in our home area - and those folks appear to be getting vaccinated at a lower rate than the population.

One other thought. The variant will likely run through the younger population at a much higher rate than the original virus as they are vaccinated at a much lower rate.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This is very interesting data, @dad4. Thanks for posting it. After some sleep and coffee, I have some “I’m not an epidemiologist and I didn’t even stay in a Holiday Inn Express” thoughts.
> 
> What is the population distribution for the variant? The distribution of the population who are susceptible to the virus has changed dramatically with the vaccine. While the case rate is important, it is much less important than the rate of death and hospitalization. Since last Tuesday, AZ was vaccinating 55 and older. Nationally, 80% of the deaths have come from 65 and older. So, as long as we are “spitballing”, let’s say 70% of those over 65 got a vaccine and it protects them from serious illness 90% of the time (that may be high for older folks).
> 
> ...


By May, the death rate is on the floor.  The emergency will be effectively over ( at least until fall when some of the variants may have gotten away from the vaccine and even then the vaccine seems to help against death/serious illness at least so far).  The question then is do we allow cases to continue to drive policy, even though by then the death rate is essentially that of a moderately bad flu season


----------



## dad4 (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> By May, the death rate is on the floor.  The emergency will be effectively over ( at least until fall when some of the variants may have gotten away from the vaccine and even then the vaccine seems to help against death/serious illness at least so far).  The question then is do we allow cases to continue to drive policy, even though by then the death rate is essentially that of a moderately bad flu season


If case rates had no consequences, then you could drop all precautions.

However, running high case rates over summer also means that you are creating more new variants.

The more new variants you make, the higher the probability that one of them is seriously immune to the vaccine.  Which would put us right back where we were in Feb 2020.

I'd really rather not do that.

Not that I have any choice.  We seem to be dropping masks and opening up right now, even though we still have 1500 deaths per day. 

At least we have priorities straight.  Classes are by zoom, but I can eat at my favorite restaurant.  Makes sense if my children hope to wait tables at Denny's some day.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> At least we have priorities straight. Classes are by zoom, but I can eat at my favorite restaurant. Makes sense if my children hope to wait tables at Denny's some day


Quite a few states have kids in school. Mine have been full time in person since the end of Aug.

Your stuck with bad leadership and powerful unions.


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## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If case rates had no consequences, then you could drop all precautions.
> 
> However, running high case rates over summer also means that you are creating more new variants.
> 
> ...


Meh.  This might be a serious concern if the rest of the world could get its act together regarding the vaccine.  But there appear to be problems with both the Russian and China vaccines.  The EU has been having a very had time with vaccinations and now has a third wave. And the vaccination in the third world is even more of a s show.  It's going to come down to the US having to donate vaccines around the world.  So it's sort of irrelevant what we do here...if there's a variant that pops up it has plenty of room to do it outside the US.  The only way your argument flies is if we hard shut the US border, but not only have international airflights upticked, the southern border is increasingly becoming problematic.  What you are talking about is basically shutting the barn after the horses have already escaped.   Part of the world won't be vaccinated for 2-3 years....polio should have been eliminated years ago....we can't even do that.

p.s. doubt we'll be running "high" case rates over the summer due to seasonality, though I acknowledge our definitions of "high" vary greatly between us.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If case rates had no consequences, then you could drop all precautions.
> 
> However, running high case rates over summer also means that you are creating more new variants.
> 
> ...


Ha! This is funny. Not your post, @dad4. I was just ready to say that I'd guess the argument from the "zero-risk" folks will be that the higher the rate that virus is still going around, the risk of variants is higher. I don't have to guess anymore. I get the argument, I just don't believe it makes sense to live like this for 1.5 years and going. The sad thing is, that if they didn't attempt the indefinite lockdowns, they might have actually had a chance at convincing people to lock down pretty tight for a few weeks when things got bad. That ship has sailed.

You aren't going to get your way, @dad4. The unions are too strong and enough of the general population doesn't believe indefinitely sacrificing for this virus. (Flatten the curve, anyone?). Have you considered Australia, New Zealand, or South Korea? Those are your best bet for your approach.


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## dad4 (Mar 7, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ha! This is funny. Not your post, @dad4. I was just ready to say that I'd guess the argument from the "zero-risk" folks will be that the higher the rate that virus is still going around, the risk of variants is higher. I don't have to guess anymore. I get the argument, I just don't believe it makes sense to live like this for 1.5 years and going. The sad thing is, that if they didn't attempt the indefinite lockdowns, they might have actually had a chance at convincing people to lock down pretty tight for a few weeks when things got bad. That ship has sailed.
> 
> You aren't going to get your way, @dad4. The unions are too strong and enough of the general population doesn't believe indefinitely sacrificing for this virus. (Flatten the curve, anyone?). Have you considered Australia, New Zealand, or South Korea? Those are your best bet for your approach.


As you said, I don't have a choice.

It’s not really a question of infinite lockdowns.  That term has become all but meaningless, anyway.  We now call it a lockdown if our favorite restaurant is limited to 75% capacity.   Even wearing a mask is untenable in large parts of the country.

Moving internationally?  No.  But AU/SK/NZ are looking a lot smarter than we are at the moment.  Per capita, we still have more covid deaths per day than NZ has had total.  

Yet we still have fools talking about how they think it was inevitable.  It wasn’t inevitable.  We just had 1/3 of the country fighting on the side of the virus.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> As you said, I don't have a choice.
> 
> It’s not really a question of infinite lockdowns.  That term has become all but meaningless, anyway.  We now call it a lockdown if our favorite restaurant is limited to 75% capacity.   Even wearing a mask is untenable in large parts of the country.
> 
> ...


Wow it’s just really shocking you think still at this late date we could have actually controlled it.  Your arguments about masks variants and indoor dining are all well thought out and reasonable even if we disagree on points. But you are in major denial and out in fantasyland if you, after all this, think it wasn’t inevitable. I mean even Germany after all that couldn’t control it. Even Japan. 

The world lost this fight the moment China lied about the data.  South Korea and Taiwan were able to do what they did because they didn’t believe the Chinese. New Zealand because it’s just very remote. Australia through some really hard core steps including leaving its citizens overseas stranded and doing stuff which here is patently unconstitutional and a little luck in containing the cruise ship outbreak helped by some seasonality. And then there’s places like China Vietnam and Singapore. That’s the list. 

We couldn’t even shut our borders or control protests that shattered the lockdown consensus and when trump tried partial restrictions on air flights and the border he was pilloried.


----------



## met61 (Mar 7, 2021)

espola said:


> To make this an objective experiment, one would also have to show the result on a vulnerable population that mostly didn't wear masks.


Provide the objective counter.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow it’s just really shocking you think still at this late date we could have actually controlled it.  Your arguments about masks variants and indoor dining are all well thought out and reasonable even if we disagree on points. But you are in major denial and out in fantasyland if you, after all this, think it wasn’t inevitable. I mean even Germany after all that couldn’t control it. Even Japan.
> 
> The world lost this fight the moment China lied about the data.  South Korea and Taiwan were able to do what they did because they didn’t believe the Chinese. New Zealand because it’s just very remote. Australia through some really hard core steps including leaving its citizens overseas stranded and doing stuff which here is patently unconstitutional and a little luck in containing the cruise ship outbreak helped by some seasonality. And then there’s places like China Vietnam and Singapore. That’s the list.
> 
> We couldn’t even shut our borders or control protests that shattered the lockdown consensus and when trump tried partial restrictions on air flights and the border he was pilloried.


Btw even south koreas “control” is questionable.  They resorted to business closures, forced quarantines and testing, family separations and border controls and still are plateaued at 500 cases per day.  Well better than the rest of the world but hardly controlled.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Meh.  This might be a serious concern if the rest of the world could get its act together regarding the vaccine.  But there appear to be problems with both the Russian and China vaccines.  The EU has been having a very had time with vaccinations and now has a third wave. And the vaccination in the third world is even more of a s show.  It's going to come down to the US having to donate vaccines around the world.  So it's sort of irrelevant what we do here...if there's a variant that pops up it has plenty of room to do it outside the US.  The only way your argument flies is if we hard shut the US border, but not only have international airflights upticked, the southern border is increasingly becoming problematic.  What you are talking about is basically shutting the barn after the horses have already escaped.   Part of the world won't be vaccinated for 2-3 years....polio should have been eliminated years ago....we can't even do that.
> 
> p.s. doubt we'll be running "high" case rates over the summer due to seasonality, though I acknowledge our definitions of "high" vary greatly between us.


I was thinking about international sources of variants as I wrote it, but decided not to make it complicated. 

The real question is which places will cause _vaccine resistant _variants.  To make a vaccine resistant variant, you need to have high case rates at the same time as you have moderately high vaccination rates.  Right now, that sounds like USA more than anywhere else.

Opening up before we vaccinate will just make it that much more likely.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I was thinking about international sources of variants as I wrote it, but decided not to make it complicated.
> 
> The real question is which places will cause _vaccine resistant _variants.  To make a vaccine resistant variant, you need to have high case rates at the same time as you have moderately high vaccination rates.  Right now, that sounds like USA more than anywhere else.
> 
> Opening up before we vaccinate will just make it that much more likely.


Isn’t the sa variant vaccine resistant despite not having much of a vaccination rate to speak of at all?   Sure I can see where evolution would help this along....life finds a way to survive...but you’d expect this in places also with a high natural immunity as well since the evolutionary pressure is the same. Then there’s also the species crossover danger....we dodged bullets with felines and minks but it’s also only a matter of time. Life will find a way


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## met61 (Mar 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> As you said, I don't have a choice.
> 
> It’s not really a question of infinite lockdowns.  That term has become all but meaningless, anyway.  We now call it a lockdown if our favorite restaurant is limited to 75% capacity.   Even wearing a mask is untenable in large parts of the country.
> 
> ...


Speaking of fools.

New CDC Report: 


The results are inside the margin for statistical error.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

met61 said:


> Speaking of fools.
> 
> New CDC Report:
> View attachment 10330
> ...


Yeah I thought about bring up this critique too of the cdc mask study but I already know his answer: that small .5% compounds over time. That study has a lot of problems with selectivity and reference periods and methodology and didn’t even study the most interesting time period.  It didn’t even try and present the counter factual and qualifications but despite putting a huge thumb on the scale that’s the best they could come up with. As a result the effect is probably overstated by the study making an even small result smaller. But we’ve pretty much known this all along...masks help a little...not enough to make a substantial difference, certainly not enough to control the outbreak and certainly not better than vaccines or 6-8 weeks of masking and covid disappeared. The biggest problem with the masks as religion school is they oversold the effectiveness thus creating bad secondary effects.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah I thought about bring up this critique too of the cdc mask study but I already know his answer: that small .5% compounds over time. That study has a lot of problems with selectivity and reference periods and methodology and didn’t even study the most interesting time period.  It didn’t even try and present the counter factual and qualifications but despite putting a huge thumb on the scale that’s the best they could come up with. As a result the effect is probably overstated by the study making an even small result smaller. But we’ve pretty much known this all along...masks help a little...not enough to make a substantial difference, certainly not enough to control the outbreak and certainly not better than vaccines or 6-8 weeks of masking and covid disappeared. The biggest problem with the masks as religion school is they oversold the effectiveness thus creating bad secondary effects.


Ps. My absolute favorite covid moment in all this was arguing with my sons school sport director who wanted him to take a covid test for 1 1 hour soccer practice:  my argument to him was they are distanced, outdoors and in masks. “The cdc director said masks are better than vaccines so what are you worried about”. It was super sweet.


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## met61 (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah I thought about bring up this critique too of the cdc mask study but I already know his answer: that small .5% compounds over time. That study has a lot of problems with selectivity and reference periods and methodology and didn’t even study the most interesting time period.  It didn’t even try and present the counter factual and qualifications but despite putting a huge thumb on the scale that’s the best they could come up with. As a result the effect is probably overstated by the study making an even small result smaller. But we’ve pretty much known this all along...masks help a little...not enough to make a substantial difference, certainly not enough to control the outbreak and certainly not better than vaccines or 6-8 weeks of masking and covid disappeared. The biggest problem with the masks as religion school is they oversold the effectiveness thus creating bad secondary effects.


Yet when convenient they drive policy, political & media narratives and power grabs. Amazed at how many gobble it up and surrender freedoms so willingly.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 7, 2021)

espola said:


> To make this an objective experiment, one would also have to show the result on a vulnerable population that mostly didn't wear masks.


Assuming that not wearing mask makes you more vulnerable than those that do wear mask.  I see all the COSTCO employees wearing the Black FLTR Pure Protection mask made in China with this WARNING:  THIS GENERAL USE MASK CANNOT ELIMINATE THE RISK OF CONTRACTING AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE.


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## dad4 (Mar 7, 2021)

met61 said:


> Speaking of fools.
> 
> New CDC Report:
> View attachment 10330
> ...


Reread your quote.

It says "p<0.01".   That does not mean "within the margin for statistical error".

P<0.01 means significant at the 99% level.  It is usually called "highly significant", and means the exact opposite of what you said it means.

The "not significant" quote refers to case and death rates before the mask mandate was applied.  That is, do case and death numbers in May correlate to mask mandates in June?  They did not.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 7, 2021)

Few people on earth have been wrong more often than of Biden’s Senior Covid Advisors, Andy Slavitt He said on 10/1 that Florida didn’t learn from New York & wasn’t going to succeed in opening the economy New York’s had a higher hospitalization rate for over 4 months


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 7, 2021)

*Purpose:* The purpose of this study was to determine the case and incidence rates of COVID-19 among youth soccer players and evaluate the relationship with background COVID-19 risk and phase of return to play.

*Methods:* Surveys were distributed to soccer clubs throughout the country regarding their phase of return to soccer (individual only, group non-contact, group contact) and date of re-initiation, number of players, cases of COVID-19, and risk reduction procedures that were being implemented. Overall case and incidence rates were compared to national pediatric data and county data from the prior 10 weeks where available. Finally, a negative binomial regression model was developed to predict club COVID-19 cases with local incidence rate and phase of return as covariates and the log of club player-days as an offset. Results: 129 clubs responded, of whom 124 had reinitiated soccer, representing 91,007 players with a median duration of 73 days (IQR: 53-83 days) since restarting. *Of the 119 that had progressed to group activities, 218 cases of COVID-19 were reported among 85,861 players. Youth soccer players had a lower case rate and incidence rate than the national rate for children in the US* (254 v. 477 cases per 100,000; IRR = 0.511, 95% CI = [0.40-0.57], p<0.001) and the general population from the counties in which soccer clubs were based where data was available (268 v. 864 cases per 100,000; IRR = 0.202 [0.19-0.21], p<0.001). After adjusting for local COVID-19 incidence, there was no relationship between club COVID-19 incidence and phase of return (non-contact: β=0.35±0.67, p=0.61; contact: β=0.18±0.67, p=0.79). No cases were reported to have resulted in hospitalization or death. 100% of clubs reported having a plan in place to reduce the risk of COVID-19 and utilizing multiple different risk reduction procedures (median 8, IQR 6- 10). Conclusions: The incidence of COVID-19 among youth soccer athletes is relatively low when compared to the background incidence among children in the United States and the local general population. No relationship was identified between club COVID-19 incidence and phase of return to soccer. Youth soccer clubs universally report implementing a number of risk reduction procedures.

COVID-19 in Youth Soccer


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## espola (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Meh.  This might be a serious concern if the rest of the world could get its act together regarding the vaccine.  But there appear to be problems with both the Russian and China vaccines.  The EU has been having a very had time with vaccinations and now has a third wave. And the vaccination in the third world is even more of a s show.  It's going to come down to the US having to donate vaccines around the world.  So it's sort of irrelevant what we do here...if there's a variant that pops up it has plenty of room to do it outside the US.  The only way your argument flies is if we hard shut the US border, but not only have international airflights upticked, the southern border is increasingly becoming problematic.  What you are talking about is basically shutting the barn after the horses have already escaped.   Part of the world won't be vaccinated for 2-3 years....polio should have been eliminated years ago....we can't even do that.
> 
> p.s. doubt we'll be running "high" case rates over the summer due to seasonality, though I acknowledge our definitions of "high" vary greatly between us.


Seasonality didn't work last summer.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

espola said:


> Seasonality didn't work last summer.


yes it did. Compare the wave in summer and the wave in winter. Furthermore the worst of the summer outbreak in the us was confined to the florida-Georgia-Texas—arizona-southern california. Further if you exclude the border counties touching Mexico the us summer wave would be further reduced.

Seasonality does not mean it goes away. It’s just a factor (likely the biggest factor) that impacts the rate of reproduction.


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## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> yes it did. Compare the wave in summer and the wave in winter. Furthermore the worst of the summer outbreak in the us was confined to the florida-Georgia-Texas—arizona-southern california. Further if you exclude the border counties touching Mexico the us summer wave would be further reduced.
> 
> Seasonality does not mean it goes away. It’s just a factor (likely the biggest factor) that impacts the rate of reproduction.


Ps there have been a couple of studies recently looking into it that have found a clear correlation. One of the big indications is actually lines of latitude. Web md has a good summer of the research if you are genuinely interested instead of doing your usual schtick.


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## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

Here’s how the European situation is developing. There are 2 anomalies: Portugal and Ireland. The 3 hardest hit countries (Spain Belgium and Switzerland) are still in decline. Medium hit countries like Germany Poland France Sweden the Netherlands and southern Italy have plateaued and plateaued at rates higher than summer. Places with not a whole lot of previous cases like Norway Finland Estonia and Hungary are at their highest peak. And then there’s the Czech Republic which despite early praise is in a second meltdown with their hospital system nearing collapse for a second time in a row. Basically all the eu nations with the possible except of portugal and Ireland are going to end up the same. And yeah I know Switzerland and Norway aren’t officially members but they are closely integrated into the travel zone.


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## Grace T. (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Here’s how the European situation is developing. There are 2 anomalies: Portugal and Ireland. The 3 hardest hit countries (Spain Belgium and Switzerland) are still in decline. Medium hit countries like Germany Poland France Sweden the Netherlands and southern Italy have plateaued and plateaued at rates higher than summer. Places with not a whole lot of previous cases like Norway Finland Estonia and Hungary are at their highest peak. And then there’s the Czech Republic which despite early praise is in a second meltdown with their hospital system nearing collapse for a second time in a row. Basically all the eu nations with the possible except of portugal and Ireland are going to end up the same. And yeah I know Switzerland and Norway aren’t officially members but they are closely integrated into the travel zone.


here’s the other bad news coming out of Europe. Because the variants are more contagious, even though kids are less likely to get it, it’a nearly as contagious among them as pre variant covid was for adults. So even in areas where the adult population is near herd immunity in northern italy they are still getting outbreaks in the schools and are even considering shuttering them.

a. We really are in a race to vaccinate here in the us before the same thing happens here and
b. Given no under 12 vaccine is likely this year there will be outbreaks in the schools this fall. The question then is if the adults are vaccinated and the ifr is on the floor if we care


----------



## espola (Mar 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> yes it did. Compare the wave in summer and the wave in winter. Furthermore the worst of the summer outbreak in the us was confined to the florida-Georgia-Texas—arizona-southern california. Further if you exclude the border counties touching Mexico the us summer wave would be further reduced.
> 
> Seasonality does not mean it goes away. It’s just a factor (likely the biggest factor) that impacts the rate of reproduction.


Between June and September in the USA, total confirmed cases in the USA quadrupled.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


> Between June and September in the USA, total confirmed cases in the USA quadrupled.


Between June and January they went up by more than 10x.


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ps there have been a couple of studies recently looking into it that have found a clear correlation. One of the big indications is actually lines of latitude. Web md has a good summer of the research if you are genuinely interested instead of doing your usual schtick.


My usual schtick is to be skeptical of arguments by assertion until I have a look at what the numbers say.


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ps there have been a couple of studies recently looking into it that have found a clear correlation. One of the big indications is actually lines of latitude. Web md has a good summer of the research if you are genuinely interested instead of doing your usual schtick.


This article?









						Like Flu, COVID-19 May Turn Out to Be Seasonal
					

Like influenza, could COVID-19 evolve to wax and wane with the seasons? New research suggests it might.




					www.webmd.com


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> *Purpose:* The purpose of this study was to determine the case and incidence rates of COVID-19 among youth soccer players and evaluate the relationship with background COVID-19 risk and phase of return to play.
> 
> *Methods:* Surveys were distributed to soccer clubs throughout the country regarding their phase of return to soccer (individual only, group non-contact, group contact) and date of re-initiation, number of players, cases of COVID-19, and risk reduction procedures that were being implemented. Overall case and incidence rates were compared to national pediatric data and county data from the prior 10 weeks where available. Finally, a negative binomial regression model was developed to predict club COVID-19 cases with local incidence rate and phase of return as covariates and the log of club player-days as an offset. Results: 129 clubs responded, of whom 124 had reinitiated soccer, representing 91,007 players with a median duration of 73 days (IQR: 53-83 days) since restarting. *Of the 119 that had progressed to group activities, 218 cases of COVID-19 were reported among 85,861 players. Youth soccer players had a lower case rate and incidence rate than the national rate for children in the US* (254 v. 477 cases per 100,000; IRR = 0.511, 95% CI = [0.40-0.57], p<0.001) and the general population from the counties in which soccer clubs were based where data was available (268 v. 864 cases per 100,000; IRR = 0.202 [0.19-0.21], p<0.001). After adjusting for local COVID-19 incidence, there was no relationship between club COVID-19 incidence and phase of return (non-contact: β=0.35±0.67, p=0.61; contact: β=0.18±0.67, p=0.79). No cases were reported to have resulted in hospitalization or death. 100% of clubs reported having a plan in place to reduce the risk of COVID-19 and utilizing multiple different risk reduction procedures (median 8, IQR 6- 10). Conclusions: The incidence of COVID-19 among youth soccer athletes is relatively low when compared to the background incidence among children in the United States and the local general population. No relationship was identified between club COVID-19 incidence and phase of return to soccer. Youth soccer clubs universally report implementing a number of risk reduction procedures.
> 
> COVID-19 in Youth Soccer


"Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information. "


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> here’s the other bad news coming out of Europe. Because the variants are more contagious, even though kids are less likely to get it, it’a nearly as contagious among them as pre variant covid was for adults. So even in areas where the adult population is near herd immunity in northern italy they are still getting outbreaks in the schools and are even considering shuttering them.
> 
> a. We really are in a race to vaccinate here in the us before the same thing happens here and
> b. Given no under 12 vaccine is likely this year there will be outbreaks in the schools this fall. The question then is if the adults are vaccinated and the ifr is on the floor if we care


Why do you assume that covid can survive in significant numbers after we vaccinate 80%-85% of people over 13?

R0 is only 3 or so, even without masks.  Even lower with masks.  Seems really hard to keep going as a disease if you spread slowly and have proportionately few potential hosts.

Put another way, kids under 12 can transmit, but they aren’t very good at it.  Where are you getting the long transmission chains once 90% of adults are immune?  (vaccine plus natural immunity)


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why do you assume that covid can survive in significant numbers after we vaccinate 80%-85% of people over 13?
> 
> R0 is only 3 or so, even without masks.  Even lower with masks.  Seems really hard to keep going as a disease if you spread slowly and have proportionately few potential hosts.
> 
> Put another way, kids under 12 can transmit, but they aren’t very good at it.  Where are you getting the long transmission chains once 90% of adults are immune?  (vaccine plus natural immunity)


A. I’m assuming eventually the variants move away from the vaccine since we know that one has.
B. Do we have numbers yet on how long vaccine immunity in fact lasts separate and apart from mutations/variants?
C. Some vaccines like the Johnson and Johnson or az vaccines are substantially less efficient
D. So I’m not sure we get to 90% immune. It will be a substantial amount. How close to 90% is a guess based on many variables
e. Northern italy has had the longest history with covid in Europe and a very high immunity rate. What’s going on there right now is wholesale classrooms including nursery schools are getting it.  This is different than what happened before. 
f. You seem to be implying covid eventually goes away. If it were just the us I think there’d be a good chance but remember vaccination In the third world unlikely to be complete until 2022. So unless somehow the Biden admin is pursuaded to shut the border even more tightly than trump did there’s always going to be this outside reservoir for outbreaks a la the Disneyland measles outbreak despite very high levels of measles vaccination


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A. I’m assuming eventually the variants move away from the vaccine since we know that one has.
> B. Do we have numbers yet on how long vaccine immunity in fact lasts separate and apart from mutations/variants?
> C. Some vaccines like the Johnson and Johnson or az vaccines are substantially less efficient
> D. So I’m not sure we get to 90% immune. It will be a substantial amount. How close to 90% is a guess based on many variables
> ...


Sorry am wrong about the 2022 date. The economist says late 2023-2024. Plenty of time btw for more variants. Mexico has plans in place and has started immunizing but Central America is very far behind. Costa Rica and Panama have gotten some vaccines but the other 4 nations have little by way of planning in place and plan to rely it seems in the kindness of nations and the plans The Who and the gates foundation seem to be moving towards


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A. I’m assuming eventually the variants move away from the vaccine since we know that one has.
> B. Do we have numbers yet on how long vaccine immunity in fact lasts separate and apart from mutations/variants?
> C. Some vaccines like the Johnson and Johnson or az vaccines are substantially less efficient
> D. So I’m not sure we get to 90% immune. It will be a substantial amount. How close to 90% is a guess based on many variables
> ...


The Disneyland measles outbreak primarily struck the unvaccinated or those for whom no vaccination status could be determined.





__





						Measles Outbreak — California, December 2014–February 2015
					






					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

Fun fact: it seems that lockdowns have had another unintended consequence. Us births are down about 300,000.  Similar dip in Europe from dec-February so far.  Seems like people locked in with nothing to do weren’t exactly amusing themselves. Now granted the economy would have dipped even without lockdown and people might have been afraid to go to the hospital for deliveries so it can’t all be attributed to lockdown, but the lockdowns have likely made this effect more severe. Well know the difference as we get March-may data from the us and europe


----------



## crush (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fun fact: it seems that lockdowns have had another unintended consequence. Us births are down about 300,000.  Similar dip in Europe from dec-February so far.  Seems like people locked in with nothing to do weren’t exactly amusing themselves. Now granted the economy would have dipped even without lockdown and people might have been afraid to go to the hospital for deliveries so it can’t all be attributed to lockdown, but the lockdowns have likely made this effect more severe. Well know the difference as we get March-may data from the us and europe


We need more babies, not less.  My pal is 52 and got divorced a few years ago.  He told me dating apps now have women with a mask on so you dont see their teeth or smile and vice versa with some of the dudes.  You can hide so much when wearing a mask.  Grace, I hope you know by now what this is all about.

Example


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fun fact: it seems that lockdowns have had another unintended consequence. Us births are down about 300,000.  Similar dip in Europe from dec-February so far.  Seems like people locked in with nothing to do weren’t exactly amusing themselves. Now granted the economy would have dipped even without lockdown and people might have been afraid to go to the hospital for deliveries so it can’t all be attributed to lockdown, but the lockdowns have likely made this effect more severe. Well know the difference as we get March-may data from the us and europe


After decades of amusing ourselves, myself and the women that mattered in the decision process had exactly the number of children we intended.


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## crush (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


> After decades of amusing ourselves, myself and the women that mattered in the decision process had exactly the number of children we intended.


70,000,000 children got left behind old man since 1972.  Not cool and not smart at all.  You shall see sir very soon why it's not wise to terminate a life that was not intended but was conceived anyways because.  This is why were in the mess were in.  It's always been about the babies and kiddos and making sure they live free.  Dont you ever ever forget that Espola.   This planet is a planet that was supposed to bread life and multiply.  It's obvious some assholes want to kill the weak and have population control.  That is a loser plan and will get destroyed by the Author of Life.  Dont mess with kids dude.....


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


> "Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information. "


Lol.  "Caution acknowledged".   Great ECNL weekend at the Polo Fields.


----------



## crush (Mar 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Lol.  "Caution acknowledged".   Great ECNL weekend at the Polo Fields.


It was just like old times Bruddah.  I was looking up at the houses on the hill that look down on all the kids and are trying to stop soccer in Del Mar and i had a little chuckle in my belly and a few other thoughts in my brain  Happy Monday Brudda man


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


> Between June and September in the USA, total confirmed cases in the USA quadrupled.


Did deaths tag along?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

crush said:


> It was just like old times Bruddah.  I was looking up at the houses on the hill that look down on all the kids and are trying to stop soccer in Del Mar and i had a little chuckle in my belly and a few other thoughts in my brain  Happy Monday Brudda man


I was on field 5.  I was the one with 20 mask on.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


> "Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information. "


BTW if it is CAUTION you seek, read the vaccine trials.


----------



## crush (Mar 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> I was on field 5.  I was the one with 20 mask on.


I was on field 1 and I was the one WHO got yelled at again for breaking the mask rule.  I actually had someone say you better get that mask over your nose or we could lose this gig and it will be all your fault.  I told her to worry about the lady from ABC news and the dudes up on the hill.  I think were all trying to break a few stupid rules and I believe the mask is the biggest scam put on us ever.  Talk about selling us ketchup popsicles....lol!!!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> 4 weeks down, 2-10 to go. We did see a slight bump up this week. However, I'm feeling that the actual increase is due to the storm in TX pushing tests out making the week starting at 2/14 artificially low and pushing those tests later making the following week higher. Either way, we are flattening out which is not ideal. Next week we should be removed from the effect of that storm on testing.
> 
> Texas
> View attachment 10225
> ...


5 weeks down - 1 to 9 to go.

Well, we have been down for 9 straight days. When more contagious variants take over, we should expect a sustained increase unless vaccinations and seroprevalence are enough to overcome the higher R. The "bump" in late February is partially caused by testing anomalies due to the storm - taking TX out smooths the curve noticeably - and maybe a bit of Super Bowl effect (just a guess).

NY Times has us at over 18% with the vaccine as of Sunday. I'd expect it to be near 21% by the end of this week with more vulnerable folks vaccinated at a much higher rate. I'd guess that the distribution of newer cases has to be moving much more toward the younger population. If the behavior of younger people is "riskier" in terms of the virus, the effective R will not be as significantly impacted by the vaccinations %. However, we should see a significant reduction in the case fatality rate with older folks being vaccinated.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

crush said:


> I was on field 1 and I was the one WHO got yelled at again for breaking the mask rule.  I actually had someone say you better get that mask over your nose or we could lose this gig and it will be all your fault.  I told her to worry about the lady from ABC news and the dudes up on the hill.  I think were all trying to break a few stupid rules and I believe the mask is the biggest scam put on us ever.  Talk about selling us ketchup popsicles....lol!!!


Sad to see the religious adherence to the COVID Robes.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> 5 weeks down - 1 to 9 to go.
> 
> Well, we have been down for 9 straight days. When more contagious variants take over, we should expect a sustained increase unless vaccinations and seroprevalence are enough to overcome the higher R. The "bump" in late February is partially caused by testing anomalies due to the storm - taking TX out smooths the curve noticeably - and maybe a bit of Super Bowl effect (just a guess).
> 
> ...


Can you overlay deaths on this same chart?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


> After decades of amusing ourselves, myself and the women that mattered in the decision process had exactly the number of children we intended.


A. Women?
B. Amusing yourself ain’t exactly a “conservative” value
C. This image ruined my breakfast.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Can you overlay deaths on this same chart?


Here you go. As context, I started this post 5 weeks ago when epidemiologist Michael Osterholm indicated the following

Osterholm predicted that B117, the more contagious strain of the virus that is sweeping England and has been found in pockets of the United States, will become the dominant strain of the virus in the country. “If we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell us we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,”


----------



## crush (Mar 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Here you go. As context, I started this post 5 weeks ago when epidemiologist Michael Osterholm indicated the following
> 
> Osterholm predicted that B117, the more contagious strain of the virus that is sweeping England and has been found in pockets of the United States, will become the dominant strain of the virus in the country. “If we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell us we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,”
> 
> ...


*Coronavirus: 53 new deaths, 110 new cases in Orange County on March 7*

Can you take a look at OC death counts from Rona?  It seems like everyday 50+ deaths and under 200 cases.  The other day it was 69 deaths and only 208 cases.  What is going on?


----------



## crush (Mar 8, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A. I’m assuming eventually the variants move away from the vaccine since we know that one has.
> B. Do we have numbers yet on how long vaccine immunity in fact lasts separate and apart from mutations/variants?
> C. Some vaccines like the Johnson and Johnson or az vaccines are substantially less efficient
> D. So I’m not sure we get to 90% immune. It will be a substantial amount. How close to 90% is a guess based on many variables
> ...


If you’re worried about vaccine resistant variants, why do you want to open now instead of June?  Running high case rates while halfway vaccinated is how you create vaccine resistant variants.

90% was assuming an 80% vaccination rate and 50% infection rate (past + future) among the unvaccinated.

If you have it, send links for the scale of the Italian school outbreak problem, and estimate of seroprevalence in Italy.  If Lombardy has 80% seroprevalence and is still seeing 3 elementary school outbreaks per week, that’s interesting.  If Lombardy has 50% seroprevalence and has enough school outbreaks for a reporter to find one as a human interest angle, that’s merely expected.

I’m saying less that covid goes away, and more that the covid fight will shift to the variants- first b.1.117, and then to any vaccine resistant variants that are around.  The last is the most important.

If you are measuring what will happen with variants, you need to ask how long it will take something like Eeek or P.1 to grow to 100k cases per day.  If we have around 10 cases per day now, then we have about 13 doublings before it happens.  16 doublings if we are currently at 1-2 cases per day.  Half year?  Maybe hits late fall, once the summer stops helping us?  I haven’t seen anything on how fast the smaller variants are growing, so this doesn’t even count as a SWAG.


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A. Women?
> B. Amusing yourself ain’t exactly a “conservative” value
> C. This image ruined my breakfast.


I was responding to your statement "people locked in with nothing to do weren’t exactly amusing themselves" by citing a continuation of what I believe you meant by "amusing themselves" that resulted in no surprise children.  

Or did you have something else in mind?


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fun fact: it seems that lockdowns have had another unintended consequence. Us births are down about 300,000.  Similar dip in Europe from dec-February so far.  Seems like people locked in with nothing to do weren’t exactly amusing themselves. Now granted the economy would have dipped even without lockdown and people might have been afraid to go to the hospital for deliveries so it can’t all be attributed to lockdown, but the lockdowns have likely made this effect more severe. Well know the difference as we get March-may data from the us and europe


A year into the pandemic, we easily forget that the lockdowns and other draconian restrictions were imposed as a temporary measure to “flatten the curves” and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. We did that successfully. Months ago.

No one signed up for living in lockdown indefinitely.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 8, 2021)

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study - Scientific Reports
					

A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between...




					www.nature.com


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 10341
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home"


----------



## crush (Mar 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> A year into the pandemic, we easily forget that the lockdowns and other draconian restrictions were imposed as a temporary measure to “flatten the curves” and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. We did that successfully. Months ago.
> 
> No one signed up for living in lockdown indefinitely.


It was a part of the plan for the demic.  "Flatten the curve" is like trying to "catch the wind" with your hands, it was never going to happen.  They had a bigger plan.  Now the team with the plan is stuck and will look like complete fools and lairs and Karma will get them.  Karma is real Hound.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


> "With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home"


That is exactly the point. They cannot find good evidence that stay at home orders made a difference. 

Kind of like masks...there is little actual evidence to show they make any difference at all.


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is exactly the point. They cannot find good evidence that stay at home orders made a difference.
> 
> Kind of like masks...there is little actual evidence to show they make any difference at all.


Absence of evidence is different from evidence of absence.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you’re worried about vaccine resistant variants, why do you want to open now instead of June?  Running high case rates while halfway vaccinated is how you create vaccine resistant variants.
> 
> 90% was assuming an 80% vaccination rate and 50% infection rate (past + future) among the unvaccinated.
> 
> ...


Oh I'm not saying mass outbreaks in the schools.  That's not what appears to be happening in Italy.  I've looked around trying to find seroprevalence levels in Lombardy even in the Italian press but they don't seem to have them.  Have they stopped doing antibody studies?  But in any case, like the measles outbreak in Disneyland, I foresee periodic outbreaks in schools from time to time of fast moving variants which will cause the talking and egg heads which have panicked before to panic again in the fall.  It only takes a handful to create a problem and risks of disruption.  In your math I think you are also assuming prior infection and/or vaccination confer full immunity, no?  I don't think it works that way particularly given the limited efficiency of some vaccines.  How much less I don't really know.

As to if you are worried of vaccine resistance, I'd be more worried if the rest of the world had it's s together.  But between 2023-2024 is a long time for the rest of the world to allow variants and Joe Biden has so far shown zero inclination to control the southern border.


----------



## watfly (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ps there have been a couple of studies recently looking into it that have found a clear correlation. One of the big indications is actually lines of latitude. Web md has a good summer of the research if you are genuinely interested instead of doing your usual schtick.


I look at seasonality like restrictions, both may influence the timing and size of peaks but at the end of the day don't do jack crap to determine the overall results.  Due to the virulence and nature of this virus it is like water, it will always find the path of least resistance.  Using another water analogy, restrictions and seasonality may temporarily kink the hose but the water is still building up and will be released.  I just believe that the virus (not accounting for vaccinations) is going to infect so many people before it dies out.  I guess that's a pseudo herd-immunity theory, although I don't believe the number it needs to infect before it effectively controlled is known.

IMO our initial goal to not overwhelm the hospitals was a correct approach, as opposed to following a tier system based on unreasonably low # of infections.   The goal to not overwhelm hospitals had widespread buy-in, but unfortunately our health policy was then hijacked by politicians and special interests.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Here you go. As context, I started this post 5 weeks ago when epidemiologist Michael Osterholm indicated the following
> 
> Osterholm predicted that B117, the more contagious strain of the virus that is sweeping England and has been found in pockets of the United States, will become the dominant strain of the virus in the country. “If we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell us we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,”
> 
> ...


That's a pretty dramatic prediction.  So the current vaccines were rendered useless even before the first poke???  Speaking of dramatic.  I wanted to see the new death reports laid right on top of your initial chart.  That way we can see some real drama.


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

watfly said:


> I look at seasonality like restrictions, both may influence the timing and size of peaks but at the end of the day don't do jack crap to determine the overall results.  Due to the virulence and nature of this virus it is like water, it will always find the path of least resistance.  Using another water analogy, restrictions and seasonality may temporarily kink the hose but the water is still building up and will be released.  I just believe that the virus (not accounting for vaccinations) is going to infect so many people before it dies out.  I guess that's a pseudo herd-immunity theory, although I don't believe the number it needs to infect before it effectively controlled is known.
> 
> IMO our initial goal to not overwhelm the hospitals was a correct approach, as opposed to following a tier system based on unreasonably low # of infections.   The goal to not overwhelm hospitals had widespread buy-in, but unfortunately our health policy was then hijacked by politicians and special interests.


"Using another water analogy, restrictions and seasonality may temporarily kink the hose but the water is still building up and will be released.

Nonsense.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

watfly said:


> I look at seasonality like restrictions, both may influence the timing and size of peaks but at the end of the day don't do jack crap to determine the overall results.  Due to the virulence and nature of this virus it is like water, it will always find the path of least resistance.  Using another water analogy, restrictions and seasonality may temporarily kink the hose but the water is still building up and will be released.  I just believe that the virus (not accounting for vaccinations) is going to infect so many people before it dies out.  I guess that's a pseudo herd-immunity theory, although I don't believe the number it needs to infect before it effectively controlled is known.
> 
> IMO our initial goal to not overwhelm the hospitals was a correct approach, as opposed to following a tier system based on unreasonably low # of infections.   The goal to not overwhelm hospitals had widespread buy-in, but unfortunately our health policy was then hijacked by politicians and special interests.


I agree.  At the end of the day in Europe it's increasingly looking like it will all end in the same place with some minor exceptions like Portugal and Ireland, and some places like the Czech Republic and Spain which might come out a little worse overall.  I think it's more correct to say things like seasonality affect the timing of the waves...that's true of lockdowns and mobility as well because it's impossible to stay locked down for a year+.  Again, it's ludicrous for the health officials to assume that healthy unmarried 20 year olds won't hook up for over a year if they aren't married or in the same households.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


> "With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home"


Not that COVID-19 mortality is driving the hysteria and thus the tyrannical policies.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> That's a pretty dramatic prediction.  So the current vaccines were rendered useless even before the first poke???  Speaking of dramatic.  I wanted to see the new death reports laid right on top of your initial chart.  That way we can see some real drama.


Yes, I thought it was rather dramatic myself. That's why I wanted to follow it. His other quotes included the following. This was 5 weeks ago.

*"*I mean, imagine where we're at, Chuck, right now. You and I are sitting on this beach where it's 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze. But I see that hurricane five, category five or higher, 450 miles offshore, ... That hurricane is coming" Osterholm said.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Yes, I thought it was rather dramatic myself. That's why I wanted to follow it. His other quotes included the following. This was 5 weeks ago.
> 
> *"*I mean, imagine where we're at, Chuck, right now. You and I are sitting on this beach where it's 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze. But I see that hurricane five, category five or higher, 450 miles offshore, ... That hurricane is coming" Osterholm said.


Deaths from weather are even lower than alleged COVID-19 deaths.  I mean who knew COVID-19 could cure Cancer and heart disease.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh I'm not saying mass outbreaks in the schools.  That's not what appears to be happening in Italy.  I've looked around trying to find seroprevalence levels in Lombardy even in the Italian press but they don't seem to have them.  Have they stopped doing antibody studies?  But in any case, like the measles outbreak in Disneyland, I foresee periodic outbreaks in schools from time to time of fast moving variants which will cause the talking and egg heads which have panicked before to panic again in the fall.  It only takes a handful to create a problem and risks of disruption.  In your math I think you are also assuming prior infection and/or vaccination confer full immunity, no?  I don't think it works that way particularly given the limited efficiency of some vaccines.  How much less I don't really know.
> 
> As to if you are worried of vaccine resistance, I'd be more worried if the rest of the world had it's s together.  But between 2023-2024 is a long time for the rest of the world to allow variants and Joe Biden has so far shown zero inclination to control the southern border.


Walking through the math on partial immunity doesn’t change it much.  

You can break the population into groups to get an estimate of average immunity.  K percent are under 12, L percent have both vaccine and natural immunity from a previous infection, M percent have Moderna, N percent have J&J, P percent have pfizer, Q are uninfected anti-vax, R are anti-vax but previously infected, and so on.

Three of those groups are in the 95% immunity range.  (pfizer, moderna, and J&J+natural)  Two are 70-90% (J&J only, and natural only) And only two are below 70%.  ( under 12, and anti-vax but never infected)

Add them all up, and you’re still well over the 67% herd immunity threshold for R=3.

Of course, if you have something like Eeek that changes the spike protein, your effective immunity of all kinds drops.   You end up well under the herd immunity threshold, and you are back to needing NPI of some kind.  Nor can you let it bloom and trust in a lower ifr.  The lower ifr is based on vaccinating the elderly.  To the extent a new strain ignores the vaccine, it also ignores the lower ifr.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Walking through the math on partial immunity doesn’t change it much.
> 
> You can break the population into groups to get an estimate of average immunity.  K percent are under 12, L percent have both vaccine and natural immunity from a previous infection, M percent have Moderna, N percent have J&J, P percent have pfizer, Q are uninfected anti-vax, R are anti-vax but previously infected, and so on.
> 
> ...


Agree on all except the last sentence.  We don't really know that.  Part of the thing with this virus is not just the virus itself but also the immune response it creates in our bodies from never having seen the thing before.   That's why the theory is that Asia might have done better in numbers based on cross t-cell immunity from other coronaviruses.  It's possible that the vaccines help against serious illness/death from new variants, but is only partially effective against new cases.  We don't really know.  If not, given that the world won't be vaccinated until 2023-2024, and given that leaves plenty of room for variants to develop, we are looking at a doomsday scenario where we are going to have to repeat this several times for years to come until vaccine adjustments finally catch up (worldwide including the deserts of Pakistan and the jungles of the Amazon) to variants.  If that's the case we are all f'ed anyway so why worry about it.  And if you really believe that's a possible scenario, you should be screaming at the D's to not only shutter hard the southern border, but to put fortress America restrictions in place on all air travel in and out of the United States now.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Agree on all except the last sentence.  We don't really know that.  Part of the thing with this virus is not just the virus itself but also the immune response it creates in our bodies from never having seen the thing before.   That's why the theory is that Asia might have done better in numbers based on cross t-cell immunity from other coronaviruses.  It's possible that the vaccines help against serious illness/death from new variants, but is only partially effective against new cases.  We don't really know.  If not, given that the world won't be vaccinated until 2023-2024, and given that leaves plenty of room for variants to develop, we are looking at a doomsday scenario where we are going to have to repeat this several times for years to come until vaccine adjustments finally catch up (worldwide including the deserts of Pakistan and the jungles of the Amazon) to variants.  If that's the case we are all f'ed anyway so why worry about it.  And if you really believe that's a possible scenario, you should be screaming at the D's to not only shutter hard the southern border, but to put fortress America restrictions in place on all air travel in and out of the United States now.


wrt vaccine resistant covid and ifr:  you’re right that I was assuming that vaccine resistance would roughly track with resistance to natural immunity, and that ifr would follow both.  This is true for some mechanisms but not others.

wrt border closures:  Why would I worry about Mexico when we have millions of people right here who refuse to take even basic precautions?

If you want to pick an R/D wedge issue, pick something other than covid.  I usually lean R, but the Rs on this issue are still behaving like spoiled 3 year olds.  I see no reason for a grown man in a high density office building to refuse to wear a mask, even if it is just out of courtesy.  (More than a few R congressmen and state reps fit that description.)


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 8, 2021)

crush said:


> *Coronavirus: 53 new deaths, 110 new cases in Orange County on March 7*
> 
> Can you take a look at OC death counts from Rona?  It seems like everyday 50+ deaths and under 200 cases.  The other day it was 69 deaths and only 208 cases.  What is going on?


This COVID portion of the NYTimes is free. Lots of informaton there. Below is the link to "The OC"
*








						Orange County, California Covid Case and Risk Tracker
					

See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths and hospitalizations in Orange County, California



					www.nytimes.com
				



*
OC Cases (14-day average at 241 - hard to tell from the graph)

OC Deaths (also 14-day average)


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> wrt vaccine resistant covid and ifr:  you’re right that I was assuming that vaccine resistance would roughly track with resistance to natural immunity, and that ifr would follow both.  This is true for some mechanisms but not others.
> 
> wrt border closures:  Why would I worry about Mexico when we have millions of people right here who refuse to take even basic precautions?
> 
> If you want to pick an R/D wedge issue, pick something other than covid.  I usually lean R, but the Rs on this issue are still behaving like spoiled 3 year olds.  I see no reason for a grown man in a high density office building to refuse to wear a mask, even if it is just out of courtesy.  (More than a few R congressmen and state reps fit that description.)


Simple, because even if you are right about the high vaccination rates being enough to near eliminate it here in the United States, there is plenty of reserve outside the United States for new outbreaks to occur.  And if people are flying to Disneyland and Hawaii, or taking cruises to the Carb or Med, or crossing over the southern border (whether citizens, migrants, or illegals) there's plenty of room for the new variants to come in and no amount of masking is going to prevent that.

p.s. it's not a even necessarily a wedge issue.  It would require a harder shut than evenTrump put in place.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Simple, because even if you are right about the high vaccination rates being enough to near eliminate it here in the United States, there is plenty of reserve outside the United States for new outbreaks to occur.  And if people are flying to Disneyland and Hawaii, or taking cruises to the Carb or Med, or crossing over the southern border (whether citizens, migrants, or illegals) there's plenty of room for the new variants to come in and no amount of masking is going to prevent that.
> 
> p.s. it's not a even necessarily a wedge issue.  It would require a harder shut than evenTrump put in place.


International travel, even with a catch and release policy for ICE, is not a significant factor for overall case numbers in the US.  It really just provides seeds.

It would become a significant factor in some fantasyland where the bars are all closed, everyone takes the vaccine, people only gather outside, and we all mask up.

Last I checked, I don't live in such a place.  I'll worry about Mexico the day after CPAC kicks out people for failing to wear their N95s properly.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> International travel, even with a catch and release policy for ICE, is not a significant factor for overall case numbers in the US.  It really just provides seeds.
> 
> It would become a significant factor in some fantasyland where the bars are all closed, everyone takes the vaccine, people only gather outside, and we all mask up.
> 
> Last I checked, I don't live in such a place.  I'll worry about Mexico the day after CPAC kicks out people for failing to wear their N95s properly.


It is a fantasyland because people are not going to live like that in perpetuity, particularly once the IFR is on the floor.  What's worse you don't want to burn whatever little credibility is left on lockdowns and continue to have people grow even more exhausted of them in the event a variant emerges and you need to take those steps again in the future.  Your argument was we need to be careful about creating new variants here given how close we'll get to herd immunity....there's plenty of room however overseas to create new variants and you admitted the foreign aspect might provide seeds here.   And if the seeds get here that are really resistant to the vaccine, well then bar closures, outdoor gatherings and masks won't help control the thing either.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

CDC released new guidance for vaccinated people today.  Interestingly, they still maintain the vaccinated must maintain physical distancing around the "unvaccinated from multiple households" and masks.  That would include children, since they can't be vaccinated and are multiple in schools.  Given this, there's not let up for the 6 foot rule or masking requirements in schools this fall.  Unless there is a substantial change in the guidance over the next couple months, some major school districts will still be hybrid only.  That's going to run into some real problems once the parents are fully vaccinated and returning to offices/jobs.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Agree on all except the last sentence.  We don't really know that.  Part of the thing with this virus is not just the virus itself but also the immune response it creates in our bodies from never having seen the thing before.   That's why the theory is that Asia might have done better in numbers based on cross t-cell immunity from other coronaviruses.  It's possible that the vaccines help against serious illness/death from new variants, but is only partially effective against new cases.  We don't really know.  If not, given that the world won't be vaccinated until 2023-2024, and given that leaves plenty of room for variants to develop, we are looking at a doomsday scenario where we are going to have to repeat this several times for years to come until vaccine adjustments finally catch up (worldwide including the deserts of Pakistan and the jungles of the Amazon) to variants.  If that's the case we are all f'ed anyway so why worry about it.  And if you really believe that's a possible scenario, you should be screaming at the D's to not only shutter hard the southern border, but to put fortress America restrictions in place on all air travel in and out of the United States now.


I don't think we are doomed.  As a species we would have been wiped out a long time ago.  Isn't our DNA about 10,000 years old?  That's a lot of coding at the disposal of our innate and adaptive immune system.  I like our chances.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> I don't think we are doomed.  As a species we would have been wiped out a long time ago.  Isn't our DNA about 10,000 years old?  That's a lot of coding at the disposal of our innate and adaptive immune system.  I like our chances.


I'd agree.  The most likely scenario is that even if there are supervariants that get away from the vaccine (and there most likely will be), a. the initial vaccines should provide assistants against serious illness/death, and b) to the extent viruses mutate, they tend to get less deadly and more contagious over time.  The best guess is this becomes an annoying cold, which after dipping to very low levels in the US, kills some thousands of people every year, mostly near the end of life, but there are some antivirals on the horizon which if they work will lower this even more.  The rise of cylons and the SMOD are of far greater concern. 

I also think that there's going to be a reckoning re lockdowns (less so with masks because I think in the end the proof will show they help a little, particularly when it comes to viral loads, though I don't think most people will widespread adopt them for flu season but it will be more common in the US) and why the US chose to put all its eggs in the vaccine (as opposed to the antiviral) basket.

At least in the immediate future, people the next couple years will be talking about "flu and COVID season".


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It is a fantasyland because people are not going to live like that in perpetuity, particularly once the IFR is on the floor.  What's worse you don't want to burn whatever little credibility is left on lockdowns and continue to have people grow even more exhausted of them in the event a variant emerges and you need to take those steps again in the future.  Your argument was we need to be careful about creating new variants here given how close we'll get to herd immunity....there's plenty of room however overseas to create new variants and you admitted the foreign aspect might provide seeds here.   And if the seeds get here that are really resistant to the vaccine, well then bar closures, outdoor gatherings and masks won't help control the thing either.


You believe that bar closures, masks, and outdoor gatherings do not work.

If they don't work, then what did work for AU/NZ?  Both countries have had seeds that did not grow into outbreaks.  Something works.

Don't say "authoritarian police state".   Belarus has one of those, and it didn't help.   

I am interested in the personal behavior patterns necessary to avoid exponential disease growth.  What did NZ people do that was different from what our people are doing?  Or was it just that they followed the (dining/mask/outside) rules and we did not?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'd agree.  The most likely scenario is that even if there are supervariants that get away from the vaccine (and there most likely will be), a. the initial vaccines should provide assistants against serious illness/death, and b) to the extent viruses mutate, they tend to get less deadly and more contagious over time.  The best guess is this becomes an annoying cold, which after dipping to very low levels in the US, kills some thousands of people every year, mostly near the end of life, but there are some antivirals on the horizon which if they work will lower this even more.  The rise of cylons and the SMOD are of far greater concern.
> 
> I also think that there's going to be a reckoning re lockdowns (less so with masks because I think in the end the proof will show they help a little, particularly when it comes to viral loads, though I don't think most people will widespread adopt them for flu season but it will be more common in the US) and why the US chose to put all its eggs in the vaccine (as opposed to the antiviral) basket.
> 
> At least in the immediate future, people the next couple years will be talking about "flu and COVID season".


Holy crap!   I'd forgotten about the Cylons.  

 My house went 100% infected to 100% recovered, inline with CDC projected IFR's.  I worked the whole time during our quarantine with some achiness, fatigue, and some discomfort in the lungs when fully expanding.  But I maintained good nutrition with increased dosages of Vitamin C, D, Zinc, B12.  Nurse called on day 10 and said we were no longer infectious.  I was back in the pool that day and swam a nice slow 1600m to get my lungs working at full capacity.  Kids were fatigued, head achy and annoyed they couldn't hang with their friends.  My wife?  She just refused to be sick and for the most part experienced very mild symptoms.  

We are a very unhealthy country.  Our Obesity rate is easily 36% according to the CIA's World fact book.  I think it's more than 36% perhaps closer to 50%.  Asia probably got better numbers because they aren't a bunch of fat asses.  China's Obesity rate is about 6%.  Japan is 4%.  Vietnam 2%


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You believe that bar closures, masks, and outdoor gatherings do not work.
> 
> If they don't work, then what did work for AU/NZ?  Both countries have had seeds that did not grow into outbreaks.  Something works.
> 
> ...


Yes, authoritarian police state.  Just take Australia because they (unlike New Zealand) had an actual outbreak in process.  New Zealand caught theirs early.  Remember we were deep already into an outbreak in New York City and the Pacific Northwest before we even fully comprehended how much of a problem we had.  First, Australia's starting outbreak was small and their biggest problem was a cruise ship which could have spun out of control but didn't....we were already deep into outbreaks on both coasts and had a few cruise ship problems including people returning from the Japan outbreak.  Second, Australia hard shut their border and left several of its citizens caught overseas.  Trump got flack for partially closing airtravel (which never fully closed) and for closing the US border (which remained opened for citizens and those with a right to cross).  Remember the summer surge was largely a southern one and driven in part by the very bad outbreak in Mexico.  Third, Australia, sometimes violently, suppressed both the BLM and antilockdown protests, going so far as to arrest a pregnant woman for even posting info about a protest on her FB page.  Many US health experts said the BLM protests were important, and thereby shattered the lockdown consensus.  Fourth, the Australia lockdowns were more than just dining/masks/outside....they restricted regional travel (something which the US never did and when Florida tried to blockade New York the press and Ds screamed murder).  Fifth, the lockdown of businesses were draconian approaching Europe...you couldn't leave your homes except for very limited exceptions.  Sixth, they imposed mandatory testing and quarantines on those with the virus.  Seventh, the lockdowns were targeted and treated on a city-city, region to region basis until cases fell to zero in the redlined area, but those were hard shuts....no escaping to cabins for vacations, no outdoor dining either, no shops open, no leave to other areas even if grandma is dying or broke her hip and needs help.  For you to say it was just dining/masks/outside is delusional and if you really believe that you really do have a scary control issue.  Australia's lockdown is hard and draconian and if the question is whether those hard and draconian measures work I'd say absolutely.

As to Belarus one of my sons favorite youtube is Bald and Bankrupt who traveled the region during COVID.  They even had their military parade and day of service.  It's not enough to have an authoritarian state.  You must take authoritarian measure+ catch the outbreak early + seal the borders hard shut so you don't keep reseeding the thing.  Hawaii remember with its semi-authoritarian measures came pretty close to stopping COVID, but it didn't seal its borders completely.  One airline conference later and they had their problem.  So they got the worst of both worlds....they were able to partially slow COVID but at a great and ruinous economic costs and lost their opportunity to contain it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You believe that bar closures, masks, and outdoor gatherings do not work.
> 
> If they don't work, then what did work for AU/NZ?  Both countries have had seeds that did not grow into outbreaks.  Something works.
> 
> ...


I'll tell you what NZ did.  The All Blacks did the Haka and they didn't let the 70 million real sheep define them the way the alleged Land of the Free and Home of the Brave did by importing the mentality of NZ's sheep.  Hell, Fauci even looks like a sheep dog.  Seriously though, NZ Customs department has always been really strict.  Both Islands are also mostly Rural.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes, authoritarian police state.  Just take Australia because they (unlike New Zealand) had an actual outbreak in process.  New Zealand caught theirs early.  Remember we were deep already into an outbreak in New York City and the Pacific Northwest before we even fully comprehended how much of a problem we had.  First, Australia's starting outbreak was small and their biggest problem was a cruise ship which could have spun out of control but didn't....we were already deep into outbreaks on both coasts and had a few cruise ship problems including people returning from the Japan outbreak.  Second, Australia hard shut their border and left several of its citizens caught overseas.  Trump got flack for partially closing airtravel (which never fully closed) and for closing the US border (which remained opened for citizens and those with a right to cross).  Remember the summer surge was largely a southern one and driven in part by the very bad outbreak in Mexico.  Third, Australia, sometimes violently, suppressed both the BLM and antilockdown protests, going so far as to arrest a pregnant woman for even posting info about a protest on her FB page.  Many US health experts said the BLM protests were important, and thereby shattered the lockdown consensus.  Fourth, the Australia lockdowns were more than just dining/masks/outside....they restricted regional travel (something which the US never did and when Florida tried to blockade New York the press and Ds screamed murder).  Fifth, the lockdown of businesses were draconian approaching Europe...you couldn't leave your homes except for very limited exceptions.  Sixth, they imposed mandatory testing and quarantines on those with the virus.  Seventh, the lockdowns were targeted and treated on a city-city, region to region basis until cases fell to zero in the redlined area, but those were hard shuts....no escaping to cabins for vacations, no outdoor dining either, no shops open, no leave to other areas even if grandma is dying or broke her hip and needs help.  For you to say it was just dining/masks/outside is delusional and if you really believe that you really do have a scary control issue.  Australia's lockdown is hard and draconian and if the question is whether those hard and draconian measures work I'd say absolutely.
> 
> As to Belarus one of my sons favorite youtube is Bald and Bankrupt who traveled the region during COVID.  They even had their military parade and day of service.  It's not enough to have an authoritarian state.  You must take authoritarian measure+ catch the outbreak early + seal the borders hard shut so you don't keep reseeding the thing.  Hawaii remember with its semi-authoritarian measures came pretty close to stopping COVID, but it didn't seal its borders completely.  One airline conference later and they had their problem.  So they got the worst of both worlds....they were able to partially slow COVID but at a great and ruinous economic costs and lost their opportunity to contain it.


Is it possible that reseeding is good for the survival of our species?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes, authoritarian police state.  Just take Australia because they (unlike New Zealand) had an actual outbreak in process.  New Zealand caught theirs early.  Remember we were deep already into an outbreak in New York City and the Pacific Northwest before we even fully comprehended how much of a problem we had.  First, Australia's starting outbreak was small and their biggest problem was a cruise ship which could have spun out of control but didn't....we were already deep into outbreaks on both coasts and had a few cruise ship problems including people returning from the Japan outbreak.  Second, Australia hard shut their border and left several of its citizens caught overseas.  Trump got flack for partially closing airtravel (which never fully closed) and for closing the US border (which remained opened for citizens and those with a right to cross).  Remember the summer surge was largely a southern one and driven in part by the very bad outbreak in Mexico.  Third, Australia, sometimes violently, suppressed both the BLM and antilockdown protests, going so far as to arrest a pregnant woman for even posting info about a protest on her FB page.  Many US health experts said the BLM protests were important, and thereby shattered the lockdown consensus.  Fourth, the Australia lockdowns were more than just dining/masks/outside....they restricted regional travel (something which the US never did and when Florida tried to blockade New York the press and Ds screamed murder).  Fifth, the lockdown of businesses were draconian approaching Europe...you couldn't leave your homes except for very limited exceptions.  Sixth, they imposed mandatory testing and quarantines on those with the virus.  Seventh, the lockdowns were targeted and treated on a city-city, region to region basis until cases fell to zero in the redlined area, but those were hard shuts....no escaping to cabins for vacations, no outdoor dining either, no shops open, no leave to other areas even if grandma is dying or broke her hip and needs help.  For you to say it was just dining/masks/outside is delusional and if you really believe that you really do have a scary control issue.  Australia's lockdown is hard and draconian and if the question is whether those hard and draconian measures work I'd say absolutely.
> 
> As to Belarus one of my sons favorite youtube is Bald and Bankrupt who traveled the region during COVID.  They even had their military parade and day of service.  It's not enough to have an authoritarian state.  You must take authoritarian measure+ catch the outbreak early + seal the borders hard shut so you don't keep reseeding the thing.  Hawaii remember with its semi-authoritarian measures came pretty close to stopping COVID, but it didn't seal its borders completely.  One airline conference later and they had their problem.  So they got the worst of both worlds....they were able to partially slow COVID but at a great and ruinous economic costs and lost their opportunity to contain it.


Almost nothing in your description of Australian personal behavior is all that different from what I have already done.

The key differences center around the whole “never leave your house claim”.  As it happens, it is not necessary to never leave your house”.  It is enough to “never enter someone else’s house”.

Testing?  Check.  Shop online?  check.  Avoid protests? check.  Avoid airplane flights?  check.  Skip interstate trip to visit sick relative?  check.  Other than one weekend trip for soccer, I’ve been living under the Australian rules already.  

Which makes me doubt your description of AU rules as a police state.  If you just replace ”stay home” with “stay outside”, it’s a completely livable set of rules.

Of course, it is a problem if you want to get together with 5000 friends and break into Walmart or the Capital building.  But I’m ok with the police arresting people like that.  ( Even if you think your cause is really, really important. )


----------



## Glitterhater (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> CDC released new guidance for vaccinated people today.  Interestingly, they still maintain the vaccinated must maintain physical distancing around the "unvaccinated from multiple households" and masks.  That would include children, since they can't be vaccinated and are multiple in schools.  Given this, there's not let up for the 6 foot rule or masking requirements in schools this fall.  Unless there is a substantial change in the guidance over the next couple months, some major school districts will still be hybrid only.  That's going to run into some real problems once the parents are fully vaccinated and returning to offices/jobs.


So is it 6ft? Our school said it's down to 4ft, and that is how they justified us doing away with hybrid models.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

crush said:


> *Coronavirus: 53 new deaths, 110 new cases in Orange County on March 7*
> 
> Can you take a look at OC death counts from Rona?  It seems like everyday 50+ deaths and under 200 cases.  The other day it was 69 deaths and only 208 cases.  What is going on?


Life and Death.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Almost nothing in your description of Australian personal behavior is all that different from what I have already done.
> 
> The key differences center around the whole “never leave your house claim”.  As it happens, it is not necessary to never leave your house”.  It is enough to “never enter someone else’s house”.
> 
> ...


In Australia during the snap lockdowns it's a hard lockdown like they had in Europe.  Basically to get food, pharmacy and medical care. The difference is they started with low enough prevalence that they could use those snap lockdowns to drive the rates near to zero.  It's stay at home, not stay outside, at least for the duration of snap lockdowns when cases are detected in a region or city.

This really isn't intended as a slam at all but either you have serious fear issues, or you are just a very high off the chart introvert.  If you really have been living Australia rules and not going out of your house for anything but food, pharmacy and medical care when cases rise, wow.  Most people aren't capable of that.  It's not exactly "normal".  And for you to assume that people will do it for a year plus and after vaccinated just shows how seriously out of touch you are with human interaction.  As I've written before, it's insane the experts would expect a 20 year old non cohabitating male to not date for a 1 year +.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You believe that bar closures, masks, and outdoor gatherings do not work.
> 
> If they don't work, then what did work for AU/NZ?  Both countries have had seeds that did not grow into outbreaks.  Something works.
> 
> ...


Different culture in NZ, they aren’t afraid of everything. Fiercely independent but mindful for their neighbors. We are barbarians in comparison. A good friend moved there with his Kiwi wife. They are leery of bringing their kids here. Good surf, good food, great wine, but Harley parts are hard to come by.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Testing? Check. Shop online? check. Avoid protests? check. Avoid airplane flights? check. Skip interstate trip to visit sick relative? check. Other than one weekend trip for soccer, I’ve been living under the Australian rules already.


You forgot...tin foil hat on? Check.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Almost nothing in your description of Australian personal behavior is all that different from what I have already done.
> 
> The key differences center around the whole “never leave your house claim”.  As it happens, it is not necessary to never leave your house”.  It is enough to “never enter someone else’s house”.
> 
> ...


The Aussies closed the beaches but allowed travel across them to surf, swim, fish, etc.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You forgot...tin foil hat on? Check.


That would be you Q-dog.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Different culture in NZ, they aren’t afraid of everything. Fiercely independent but mindful for their neighbors. We are barbarians in comparison. A good friend moved there with his Kiwi wife. They are leery of bringing their kids here. Good surf, good food, great wine, but Harley parts are hard to come by.


Nailed it!!


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In Australia during the snap lockdowns it's a hard lockdown like they had in Europe.  Basically to get food, pharmacy and medical care. The difference is they started with low enough prevalence that they could use those snap lockdowns to drive the rates near to zero.  It's stay at home, not stay outside, at least for the duration of snap lockdowns when cases are detected in a region or city.
> 
> This really isn't intended as a slam at all but either you have serious fear issues, or you are just a very high off the chart introvert.  If you really have been living Australia rules and not going out of your house for anything but food, pharmacy and medical care when cases rise, wow.  Most people aren't capable of that.  It's not exactly "normal".  And for you to assume that people will do it for a year plus and after vaccinated just shows how seriously out of touch you are with human interaction.  As I've written before, it's insane the experts would expect a 20 year old non cohabitating male to not date for a 1 year +.


Is there a reason that a "stay outside" rule is significantly less effective than a "stay at home" rule?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The Aussies closed the beaches but allowed travel across them to surf, swim, fish, etc.


Yes, but we now know it was not necessary to close outdoor spaces.

We only need to copy the good ideas.  No reason to copy the bad ones.


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## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You forgot...tin foil hat on? Check.


Shush.  Grownups are talking.


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## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Is there a reason that a "stay outside" rule is significantly less effective than a "stay at home" rule?


I don’t really know.  Has anyone done a stay outside rule?   There are certain weather limitation and with say kids in school.  But it’s not what australia did, which is what we know works. Australia basically did China lite.  And hey if it’s stay outside no reason for people to go around wearing masks except in the limited circumstances of going to the grocery, doctor of pharmacy. The biggest problem though is the factories and slaughterhouses. Australia got to near zero by shutting those too for short periods of time.


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## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Shush.  Grownups are talking.


Errr. You can’t claim that if husker is participating.


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## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

According to la times la unified has set late April for school reopening. Kid will be live for just a few weeks before summer break.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Shush.  Grownups are talking.


Then why are you here? 

Your "solutions/concerns" over the past year have been laughable.

A few gems. 

Keep schools closed. Even after other countries were doing it in the summer you would find a news story here and there to show us all how concerning it was. 

Then worried about outdoor sports. Then maybe having each team tested before each tournament. 

Maybe the funniest one? Claiming mask usage brought the curve down in AZ. Remember that one? And when I and others showed you the curve was going down before the mask mandate you still claimed it was the mandate that did it. 

Your fixation on restaurants/bars. 

When pretty much every country in the N. Hemisphere started seeing a rise in cases in the fall...all within roughly the same 2-3 weeks you claimed it must be because people are going to bars/restaurants again. 

You stated earlier today they basically you still are not going out. Why? The data shows the young have essentially zero risk. I also assume you are at an age where the date shows little to no risk either. As a math guy besides being able to do a problem, you should also be able to interpret the data as well and realize what the risk is or isn't.


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## Hüsker Dü (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes, but we now know it was not necessary to close outdoor spaces.
> 
> We only need to copy the good ideas.  No reason to copy the bad ones.


We were/are the ones doing the dumb stuff.


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## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I don’t really know.  Has anyone done a stay outside rule?   There are certain weather limitation and with say kids in school.  But it’s not what australia did, which is what we know works. Australia basically did China lite.  And hey if it’s stay outside no reason for people to go around wearing masks except in the limited circumstances of going to the grocery, doctor of pharmacy. The biggest problem though is the factories and slaughterhouses. Australia got to near zero by shutting those too for short periods of time.


That's kind of my point.  China lite worked.  USA normal did not work.  We should use AU/NZ as a starting point.

Now, take China lite, move it outside, and keep the masks.  You still have R<1, but it is more sustainable.

You are assuming school is indoors.  Why not hold high school outside in CA?   Kid brings a folding chair and a clipboard.  Mock it if you like, but it's a better idea than zoom.

And China lite is certainly better than pulling an AZ.  If the whole country had Arizona's death rate, we would have a quarter million more covid deaths than we have already.  Those are some pretty expensive margaritas at Ristorante del Hound.


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## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That's kind of my point.  China lite worked.  USA normal did not work.  We should use AU/NZ as a starting point.
> 
> Now, take China lite, move it outside, and keep the masks.  You still have R<1, but it is more sustainable.
> 
> ...


Because a. You can’t move high transmission locations like meat plants or factories outdoors which gives you Germany, b. Many of Australia’s moves are unconstitional here and c. You’d have to use force against both right wing and left wing treasures— shuttering business/free movement/free speech v violent suppression of blm and hard shut of the border.  No thanks on the China lite. Not worth it then, especially not worth it now. Only appeals to the zero risk people on fantasyland.

ps your authoritarian streak is showing


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## Desert Hound (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why not hold high school outside in CA? Kid brings a folding chair and a clipboard. Mock it if you like, but it's a better idea than zoom.


Why not hold school INDOORS. Lots of other states/countries are already doing it without issue. 

The data shows zero risk for the under 24 age group. 

Look at the data.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Those are some pretty expensive margaritas at Ristorante del Hound.


I only drink Zipperitas.

Outside of those, I don't drink margaritas.



dad4 said:


> If the whole country had Arizona's death rate,


I guess AZ could have shut down like NY or NJ and gotten their rate instead eh? 

Does Cuomo have to give back his Emmy?


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## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Because a. You can’t move high transmission locations like meat plants or factories outdoors which gives you Germany, b. Many of Australia’s moves are unconstitional here and c. You’d have to use force against both right wing and left wing treasures— shuttering business/free movement/free speech v violent suppression of blm and hard shut of the border.  No thanks on the China lite. Not worth it then, especially not worth it now. Only appeals to the zero risk people on fantasyland.
> 
> ps your authoritarian streak is showing


These days, we have enough tests to run daily covid tests for every meat packing plant worker.  We also have enough masks to give every meat packing worker an N95 every day.  It was an issue over the summer, but there are not enough cold room workers to pose a problem now.  

Why is it so hard to visit with friends outside?  You keep acting like, if your dinner party gets replaced with Mah Jong at a picnic table, then the secret police have arrived to burn your Vaclev Havel books.

Just meet people outside and show a bit of imagination.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

When the risk of death from COVID-19 infection is nearly 1900X higher for the octogenarian population relative to those 29 years and under, then the point of across-the-board house arrest is self-evident: namely, in his “wisdom,” Governor Cuomo (and the infectious disease cartel for which he shills) have taken the 7.5 million New Yorkers under 30 years of age hostage, and made them involuntary instruments of a state-imposed maneuver to protect the elderly and infirm by stopping the contagion.

Stated differently, up to 20% or more of these 7.5 million New Yorkers under 30 years have already been infected based on the state’s own antibody studies, and doubtless 50-80% of those so infected have been asymptomatic, while most of the rest have recovered from a mild illness in the normal course of shaking off the flu. Actually, there have only been 78 reported COVID deaths in this entire age cohort.

So even if only 10% of the under 30 population has been infected, the implied IFR (infected-fatality rate) is just 0.01% (78 deaths/750,000 cases) – or barely more than the odds of being struck by lightning.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

.....our experience as humans with Corona virus is, we've now been able to map back 780 years of experience with this viral family in our annual experiences. And the current consumer is very familiar with the common cold. There's about 120 common viruses that are related to the syndromes that we think of as described as the common cold. So that'd be upper respiratory congestion, cough, sore throat, these kinds of things. So the Corona viruses play an important part in that 120 families of viruses involved in those upper respiratory cold like syndromes.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

In the last 20 years, we can point to three very specific events in which we have a Corona virus that shifts its behavior from a specific upper respiratory experience to one that's more involving the deep lungs and vascular systems and those present clinically much different finding. The first one was called SARS that really appeared coming out of China and South Asia in 2001, 2002, and then burned itself out importantly within 18 to 24 months, never to really reappear in its same form because humanity had reached this new homeostasis with it. And not just humanity, but water systems, soil systems, air systems, everything had come into balance with that new species within the Corona family, if you will, or that new element of genomic information. Because we can't really, speciate a non-living organism like a virus. So instead it's more of a description of a family of genetic codes.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And so we had a variant that created SARS, which presented very uniquely in the sense that it didn't present with elevated white blood cell counts. It wasn't an initial presentation of fever, actually presented with blue patients. And so those on the front lines in China and otherwise described patients showing up hypoxic and blue appearing as if they were at suddenly high altitude. And then they would be hospitalized and no matter how much oxygen they gave them, they couldn't really get their bloodstream to carry the oxygen. So it wasn't a lack of oxygen. It was a lack of oxygen carrying capacity. And then the descriptions from the front lines of SARS said that within two days of presenting blue, they would start to fill their lungs with fluid and then develop secondary pneumonia and vascular complications and then die within a few weeks in the more severe cases.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And so of those, we had 9,000 or so very well-documented cases of those blue patients who went hypoxic, had that whole series of events happened and they scattered across the world. What we weren't tracking at the time was all of the people that interacted with that virus and didn't present that way. And so people that presented more like the common cold or the flu didn't get counted in the SARS event, only those that really presented with life-threatening and high mortality events were tracked.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

Interestingly, as we fast forward then to, nine, 10 years to 2011, 2012, we find the emergence of another Corona virus that was termed MERS, a Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome. And it's important that the SARS, which was a severe acute respiratory syndrome or MERS, Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome, or now SARS-CoV-2, or COVID-19 as it is now, are descriptions of syndromes, not the actual virus. So SARS-CoV-2 is now our description of the virus and COVID-19 is the description of the syndrome, the clinical syndrome.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*And so when we say there's, some number of COVID-19 cases, that doesn't mean that we even know that the virus is present in that person's bloodstream at that moment, or is having any contribution to that person's syndrome. What we're saying is there's, cases showing up that have syndromes of, loss of smell, loss of taste, some headache, low intermittent fevers that can course through for a week or two. Those are the mild syndromes that would not have been counted in the SARS outbreak and are being counted now because we're using a laboratory science tool called PCR, which has never been designed or implemented as a diagnostic tool because it's terrible as a diagnostic tool because it picks up so much noise within the virome.*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*And so anybody with Corona virus fragments or protein production in their bloodstream from something like the common cold or other viruses that makes them more proteins can have false positives. So we've seen false positive rates with PCR for COVID-19 syndrome, as far as being specific to an actual SARS-CoV- 2 protein, the false positives are anywhere between 30 and 80%. And so we've seen true positives being as low as 19% and as high as maybe 70%. And so, in other words, when a test comes back positive, it's almost a flip of the coin really as to whether or not the virus is even present in enough concentrations to be even involved in the syndrome that we're looking at.
*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And so interestingly with SARS, as mentioned in 2002, it burned out in two years, and MERS, same thing, it was gone within the human experience within two years. And so we can predict very well that this is going to also be gone in two years. And so, as I've been talking about since February with the Chinese cases is, we don't need to clamor for a vaccine because by the time we even find an effective vaccine, we will have come into balance with this virus and the next one's not going to look just like this and whatever vaccine we develop this, isn't going to work this year.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

We know this for flu vaccine, right? Every single year, we have to create a new flu vaccine. And every single year, it never stops flu from occurring. *We have never changed the penetration of flu for the vaccines that we put out.* T*he only thing that we've shown that we hope to hang our hat on when we go out and do a universal campaign to do flu vaccines is to decrease the amount of time people are symptomatic with the condition, but we know very well with decades of experience with flu vaccine and innumerable other vaccines for viruses, we don't change the rate of infection.* *We hope to modify in at least a small portion of the people the duration of symptoms.*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

............just abject invalidity of the testing. Which we're using, we're screaming about tests, we're using testing as criteria to make very critical decisions. *And the testing is completely unreliable.* And as you said, even the creator of the test felt that, said that this test was never supposed to be used in such a way yet we're doing that. So just on that one point, why do you think, I mean, *there's enough smart scientists out there who are embracing that. Why do you think they're embracing the current testing methodology?*


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## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> We know this for flu vaccine, right? Every single year, we have to create a new flu vaccine. And every single year, it never stops flu from occurring. *We have never changed the penetration of flu for the vaccines that we put out.* T*he only thing that we've shown that we hope to hang our hat on when we go out and do a universal campaign to do flu vaccines is to decrease the amount of time people are symptomatic with the condition, but we know very well with decades of experience with flu vaccine and innumerable other vaccines for viruses, we don't change the rate of infection.* *We hope to modify in at least a small portion of the people the duration of symptoms.*


" *We hope to modify in at least a small portion of the people the duration of symptoms."*


Who is "we"?


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

It's because of the siloed nature of our education. And so being intelligent doesn't equate to knowing, right? And so unfortunately our education is siloed between clinical management and then another silo, clinical research, and then another silo, basic science research. Very, very few clinicians out there that are practicing medicine have ever spent any significant amount of time in a basic science research lab. That's relegated to the PhDs. And so you got PhDs over here doing this, developing tests like PCR, everything else, learning what that means. You've got a group over here of clinicians that are constantly being told that they have new toolboxes of therapeutics from the pharmaceutical industry, or diagnostics from the radiology industry, or laboratory chemical analysis through Quest laboratories or whatever it is.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


> " *We hope to modify in at least a small portion of the people the duration of symptoms."*
> 
> 
> Who is "we"?


The COVID Pharisees


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And so when Quest labs comes along and says, "We have a new PCR test to diagnose Corona virus." There's no question that, we don't have anything in our educational background that would trigger a question of is that valid? If Quest labs, which is our most trusted source of laboratory stuff in my clinic or Lab Corp or any of these big national labs comes along and says, "Hey, we have this new test." The physician automatically assumes, "Well certainly they did their due diligence to show that this test actually is clinically significant or irrelevant to my patient. Who's showing up with a question of whether or not they have this virus in their bloodstream."


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And so that's the assumption we made not knowing what PCR even means really. So PCR means Polymerase Chain Reaction, is a methodology that was developed in genomics to be able to amplify tiny, tiny little signals or the tiniest presence of genetic information. And so with PCR, it's a very powerful way for us to determine what genetic decisions is a cell making at any given moment. And so in my lab, we can do PCR even for mitochondria that are a little microbes that live inside the human cells, and we can see what genomic decisions and what proteins they're making and all of that based on PCR.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And we're talking about tiny micro, micro nano particle strips of nucleotide sequences that you can pick up with PCR. And the way that you do it is you run an assay if it amplifies almost everything in the background there, and then you run it again and amplify everything, you've just amplified. And then you run it again and amplify everything you just amplified twice. And so with PCR, you can run this 150 times, and by the time you've run it a hundred times or whatever, you're finding genetic information that is maybe circulating in your mother's womb. You're down at this trace, trace level of nucleotide sequences, this might've been a bacteria that you breathed in a week ago, that's now filtered out of your system. But in the process, it happened to make some genomic information in the form of RNA that sequenced into your bloodstream for a moment. And you can pick that up by PCR.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

So when you start to amplify and cycle and cycle PCR, it gives you a completely inaccurate look at what's actually going in your body today. And that's, the danger with starting to say, "This is a diagnostic tool." Is what you can say is, "Yeah, somebody has some symptoms of upper respiratory and stuff," or shows up with chest pain and a heart attack and you run a PCR and it says, "Oh, you have COVID-19." No, all that means is that person may have walked by somebody, their body never expressed the virus in any amount. Their body was in total balance with it, they never got sick from that virus, they're presenting with a true heart attack, but they have enough of that genomic sequence that you're now amplifying that.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And it's only in the last week or two that we see some of the States Governors starting to realize that they're being tricked into making emergency decision- making on this fallacy of testing. And they're starting to demand that the labs that are doing these rapid PCR tests publish with the results, how many times did you amplify that before you got a signal of that? And that's what we should have done at the beginning. And we should have set a threshold for relevance. We should have said, "If you need to amplify this more than five times, there's no way this is an active clinical infection." And so we should have set a threshold .......


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

But the fact is it's way less than 25 and 40 times, which is the typical average that you're seeing these labs run when they're doing screening for Corona virus. So the methodology is severely flawed. The reason why doctors are being deployed in masks to do this is because they don't understand the technology. They don't understand because they were never practicing that technology and they were never asked to even understand it. They just said, *"The only thing that doctor needs to know is what is the CPT code? What is the insurance code? So that you can order the test and bill it to insurance."* *That's as far as we go as clinicians in understanding it, we don't understand how we get sodium measured in blood, but we order basic chemistry and get sodium, potassium, all the electrolytes. But none of us think about how the hell did that lab figure it out. That sodium is 135 milligrams per deciliter. We don't know, we don't care. We're data and analysis team, we are not the beta production team.*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*And so that's the danger of something like this being rolled out by something like the WHO or the CDC that says, "Oh, we have this test." And your clinician of course is like, "Well, certainly the CDC is only going to recommend a test that's clinically relevant." If it's not, there's no stop gap. There's no checks and balances in our current public health policy to allow us to make intelligent decisions about those testing.*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*So, an example of the heart attack that we just used. Somebody shows up with chest pain and you're concerned that their oxygen maybe registers at that 93% or 94% slightly below the normal bell curve. And so you're like, "Oh, I wonder if they have Corona virus and therefore they're presenting with a heart attack." And you run a COVID-19 PCR screening test that comes back positive. It totally changes your mindset as a physician. You stop thinking as a clinician, you start reacting to a data set instead of looking at your patient.  And so this is a common phenomenon. It's not hard to imagine as a clinician, how we could be so misled to think, "Oh my God, our hospital is full of Corona virus patients." When in fact our hospital's full of some Corona virus patients, some pneumonia patients, some influenza patients, a bunch of heart attack patients, a bunch of cancer patients, but we keep reading it as Corona, Corona, Corona.          *


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*And it's led to tragic mistakes at the clinical level over and over again. Examples, just in my little sphere, I'm a part-time clinician, now I don't see patients every day, but even in my tiny little patient contact every month, I have examples of tragic mistakes that were made in the hospital systems. For example, a young woman aged 34 or five, she presented with hypoxia, weird changes in her white blood cell count, confusion, neurologic symptoms, was just out of it. And it seemed to come out of the blue. And the labs were bizarre, her white blood cell, red blood cell counts all of this. And so immediately the clinicians were like, "This must be," having never actually seen a case of COVID-19 in their clinic, they said, "This must be COVID-19." Ran a PCR and it was negative and saying, it wasn't even there. And they had heard that maybe there was a 20% false, positive, or false negative rate to the PCRs. They're like, "Well she must still have Corona virus."*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And so they sent her to the hospital and said, "We suspect clinical, the test is negative, we think this is COVID-19." So the hospital then has to go through ridiculous measures. Everybody has to gown up, treat them like a hazmat patient. This woman now nobody can touch her, nobody can go in the room, nobody is now talking to the woman because they're all thinking COVID-19. So nobody's taking a good clinical history, which is only place you ever make an accurate diagnostic decision to treat is talk to the freaking patient, and talk to them about their last three, six months. Maybe this isn't even an acute issue.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

Well it hadn't been an acute issue. She had been having stuttering neurologic symptoms for months. By the time she died, two weeks later, they had run 12 COVID-19 screening tests. All of them were negative, but they couldn't break themselves out of the mindset of this is a patient dying from Corona virus because she had what they had heard were the symptoms of hypoxia and weird things in the bloodstream, maybe in liver failure, ultimately kidney failure. And she dies of multi organ failure.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

The physician was so disturbed that was in charge of her hospital case by what was going on because she had come to believe that it wasn't COVID-19. But by the time she had made that decision, the patient was non-verbal in the ICU intubated. She asked the family, in tears, "I think we have horrifically mismanaged this case, I'm asking an unusual request because the death certificate already says, 'Corona virus COVID-19,' on there. But I really believe you guys would be smart to do an autopsy to see if we've made some grave medical error."


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## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> These days, we have enough tests to run daily covid tests for every meat packing plant worker.  We also have enough masks to give every meat packing worker an N95 every day.  It was an issue over the summer, but there are not enough cold room workers to pose a problem now.
> 
> Why is it so hard to visit with friends outside?  You keep acting like, if your dinner party gets replaced with Mah Jong at a picnic table, then the secret police have arrived to burn your Vaclev Havel books.
> 
> Just meet people outside and show a bit of imagination.


You’d have to get to a reliable rapid prick or saliva test.  There have been lots of outbreaks in meat packing plants despite masks


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*So that is a brave physician who in the care team is saying, "I think I made a mistake." When there was this very societally accepted diagnosis and on autopsy, it turned out she had an acute leukemia that should have easily been caught by any hematologist. Had a hematologist been asked to get involved in the case. No hematologist was ever called because they thought it was an infectious disease,* *So these are the ways in which the narrative of a public pandemic can really screw up our clinical accuracy and acuity. And these are very smart, caring physicians. These are not people who are lazy. These are not physicians that are careless, but the narrative can be so baked into our experience that we're trying to make the square peg fit in the round hole over and over and over again, because it's the only thing that is top of mind for all of us.*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And so that's just, I want to paint that public or that human picture of how can we all be complicit in this without being stupid? It's not that, I don't want people to think, "Doctors would have to be stupid to," no. In an intelligent fashion, we can be stuck in this trap. We can be part of the complicit to this narrative that's so inaccurate. So I think your ask was really more around, is the mortality change this year or not? And that is really fascinating because in the end all cause mortality hasn't changed at all for annually across the world, human population is still going up.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

So this was not a pandemic that threatened human existence that changed our fertility rate that changed our population growth, anything like this, this is not plague, this is not the Spanish flu, this is nothing like that. What we can say is that there was an interesting pattern of respiratory death in some countries. In most countries, they were very predictable. Anytime you would see flu season happen, that's where you saw the increase in mortality in China to Iran, to Northern Italy, et cetera, all these hotspots around the country followed their typical trends.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

In the United States and Canada and Australia, where we came under one control narrative. We saw some weird aberrant patterns in there because we were using PCR testing at such a high volume. And with so much trust that we painted an unusual picture of mortality from a virus that was, no viruses ever in the respiratory setting, behaved like the Corona virus did in the United States, by the narrative we're telling.


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## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You’d have to get to a reliable rapid prick or saliva test.  There have been lots of outbreaks in meat packing plants despite masks


Turnaround is about a day or two now.  You’ve got options.

You can even go with the full, oversensitive nasal swab PCR that IZ hates.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Turnaround is about a day or two now.  You’ve got options.
> 
> You can even go with the full, oversensitive nasal swab PCR that IZ hates.


It's obviously not a good tool for one size fits all policies.  No need to hate PCR.  It just is what it is not meant to be used for.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*And so I think we mistook the curves. We mistook all kinds of things for this PCR phenomenon happening to misdiagnose, over-diagnose, or misunderstand the real pandemic that was put. Did a pandemic occur?. Yes, 12,800 pandemics have occurred since 1976. So we had a fundamental change in the human immune system in 1976 with the virome. This is when hepatitis C went berserk. This is when we developed a change in relationship with all the herpes viruses, that would bring about the change in the relationship to that HIV virus, that would then create the syndrome of AIDS by the early '80s. So we had this fundamental shift and the CDC and the WHO tracked some 12,000 respiratory virus pandemics that have happened since then. 12,800 in just that short 40 year period is telling you that you have thousands and thousands of viruses that are traveling globally every year in very predictable patterns, seasonally.
*



\


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*And so when we say, when people say, "It's a made up thing." Well, no, we don't have to say that. It's a normal thing. It's so normal that you've got hundreds of these viruses going pandemic every year. If you want to use that term pandemic. And so you have global travel of new viral genomic sequences that will be proliferated by humans, that's what happens in a pandemic. Humans become a vector for information genetically to one another. It's not pigs attacking us. It's not bats attacking us. It's like that whole zoonotic mystification of where do these things come from is overblown.*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

The reality is humans take this information into our cellular matrix and genomic apparatus for protein synthesis and genetic replication. And we've already shown just in recent months in two different studies now that the Corona virus has now been integrated into the human genome. So that RNA strand coming into the virus has been reversed, transcribed into DNA in the human, and then can be replicated from the human cell decision to go and make that RNA and the proteins that are being beat downstream from that, all of that.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

So we have, like many viruses, integrated this genetic information into us now. That's why these things burn out as a clinical syndrome in 18 months is because many of us have now integrated this information into our cellular matrix, into our genetic matrix. And we now decide when we need proteins from that viral insert or not. Interestingly, what I just described sounds novel. What Corona virus is integrated in human DNA? That's how we occurred. Over 50% of the genes that we've now mapped in the human genome are able to be directly demonstrated, have been inserted by a virus sometime in the last billion years.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

So mammals became possible only through viral adaptation modifications that allowed for change in function and adaptability and by diversification of our biology. And these are critical genes. The gene that allows us to have a placenta as a mammal came directly from an RNA virus. The gene that allows for the male sperm to dump its mitochondria before injecting its nuclear DNA into the ovum of the woman that it's about to be impregnated is a viral genomic sequence that allows for that to occur. So we couldn't have had the first pregnancy, let alone the first intrauterine pregnancy that would lead to the live birth that's unique to the mammals, without viral updates, without viral gain of function.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

You hear all of this terror, maybe there's a government lab doing gamma function virus stuff. Well, first of all, that's stupid we shouldn't be doing that. Second of all, though, nature has been doing gamma function virome since its origin-Nature has been doing gain-of-function virome since its origin. And so we shouldn't be afraid of gain-of-function. No, that's what viruses are. They are all there to increase the adaptability and biodiversity on the planet and we happen to be able to be adapted by that. And so what I'm describing here is that we have 12,800 new genetic updates since 1976, in the last 40 years, and some of those we've taken up and others we've rejected from the human DNA.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*And so when we say yes, there was a pandemic, then we can ask the clinical things around what pattern did it occur? Did we have excess death this year or not? And the short answer to that is if you look over a seven-year trend the year before we had this narrative of a pandemic, we had the lowest respiratory mortality than we had in seven years. And so there was a pent up population that didn't die last year. That's going to die of respiratory causes the following year. The CDC, NIH, WHO knew that data. We didn't because they publish their data two years behind typically. And so we didn't see that until retrospective now, but we know the powers that be, that are watching these numbers must have known that we had a low respiratory death rate that year.*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*And so we could have predicted that we would have an increased respiratory mortality in 2019, 2020 in the northern hemisphere. And then later in 2020 and into 2020 in the southern hemisphere, we would have this increased respiratory mortality. And so it's interesting that, that's all unfolding now and we're blaming coronavirus when, in fact, we could have pegged it on any respiratory virus cause it was going to happen. We were going to have a catch-up year.*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

... This particular coronavirus, the COVID- 19 coronavirus, is just one of thousands that come our way through a period of years. And they carry information with them that continue to update our genome so that we can better adapt to the environment. Is that an approximation of what you're, what you're suggesting?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

Very accurate and I'm glad you took it to that next step is what is the adaptation? Okay, so we have all these viruses and those, those 12,800 that I named, those are just the ones that we were able to identify. That is a fraction of the 10 to the 31, which is one with 31 zeros after it, which happens to be about 10 million times more than our stars in the entire universe. That's how many viruses are actually in the air at any given moment, not seasonally, not sometimes all the time. And so we have 10 of the 31 viruses in the air that we breathe a very small, small percentage of those have we gained insight into and actually taking the time to sequence and name. And so we're really talking about billions and billions of respiratory viruses that we're always in an intimate relationship with and are not causing us any harm.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

And so when we can start to say that there's a segment of these things that are related to some sort of clinical syndrome, whether it's flu or common cold or whatever we're calling COVID-19, if there's a syndrome that gets associated with one of these viruses, it means that this particular genetic information is producing proteins that are extremely activating to the human immune system.

Why is that important? Because the immune system is not there to fight off the world, which is our old paradigm of belief. And it's the same paradigm that they want you to still believe in if you are going to be told that you're not safe until you have a bunch of vaccines, it's the belief that we're in war with the virome that's allowing this vaccine narrative to happen. A lot of people asking me, are you pro-vaccine or anti-vaccine? And my answer is I'm neither. I'm for the innate immune system that has absolutely nothing to do with the whole premise of vaccines.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

The innate immune system is that responsible from second to second as to how we relate to all of the microbial data in us, which is a huge sea of information. But then my bloodstream at this moment, as I sit here, 10 to the 15 viral genomic fragments within my bloodstream that I'm responding to at the innate immune system level. Each cell within my body is deciding which of these viral data points do I need to upload, which ones am I going to turn into a DNA strand, I will insert into Zach's genome so that he's got a long-term genetic update and which of these don't need to be integrated into his genome, but need to be short-term in production of proteins that he needs to stimulate his immune system so that he can become adaptive to next year's experience or the next experience that we have coming down the pipe?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

*And what we know is if you look across this is that, if you get influenza, for example, the following year, you're very resistant to adenoviruses echoviruses, corona viruses and the like*. *In contrast, if we give a vaccine for flu, we increase your risk of morbidity and mortality from coronavirus the following year, because we didn't give you an innate immunity experience. *We gave you a single protein that was trying to mimic the threat, and *we didn't let the innate immune system learn from that.* *And instead, we created an antibody to a foreign protein, which could have been an innate protein when my DNA intercalate something and I start to produce that protein, there's no reason for me to make an antibody to it.*


----------



## espola (Mar 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Very accurate and I'm glad you took it to that next step is what is the adaptation? Okay, so we have all these viruses and those, those 12,800 that I named, those are just the ones that we were able to identify. That is a fraction of the 10 to the 31, which is one with 31 zeros after it, which happens to be about 10 million times more than our stars in the entire universe. That's how many viruses are actually in the air at any given moment, not seasonally, not sometimes all the time. And so we have 10 of the 31 viruses in the air that we breathe a very small, small percentage of those have we gained insight into and actually taking the time to sequence and name. And so we're really talking about billions and billions of respiratory viruses that we're always in an intimate relationship with and are not causing us any harm.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

I test negative all the time coronavirus, cause I'm always out there traveling. And so I have to do these stupid nasal swabs all the time. And I can say that I have no replicable PCR, detectable strand of RNA within my blood stream right now, because don't believe I'm making the RN. I'm making the proteins downstream. It's more likely that I already integrated that genomic sequence into my own DNA. And I make the proteins from that. I don't make the RNA, which is the template for the program. I'm making the proteins that make my immune system stronger and change my relationship to all of the viruses next year. So if we really had a good public health intervention, and we had really believed that we had a virus that was 30 times more deadly than flu in December, which is what we heard immediately like, Oh my God, this is going tobe 30 times more deadly than flu. Get ready. We have a global pandemic coming. People are dying in droves in China.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

China built six hospitals between December 31st and first week of February. So in five weeks they built like six hospitals. They closed the last of those six hospitals three weeks after they started to open them. Cause there was no patients. And so it never came to fruition that there was all these millions of people dying from this coronavirus at all. But if we had believed, even before that or after that, that we really had something that was 30 times more deadly in December, January, we should have immediately seized all flu vaccines because we already had a military study in 2017 showing if we gave flu vaccines, we would increase risk of coronavirus mortality the following year. But we didn't instead right now on CVS commercials, you're seeing targeted African- American communities. You need to go out and make sure you're there.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Turnaround is about a day or two now.  You’ve got options.
> 
> You can even go with the full, oversensitive nasal swab PCR that IZ hates.


Yeah that's not quick enough for total containment Australia style if you want to do outdoor only + screened indoor.  You have to get it down to an hour and during that hours you have workers idling.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

They're not only targeting people. They're targeting low socioeconomic minorities to make sure you get your flu vaccine. That is a new form of ethnic cleansing. As far as I'm concerned, we have scientific data to suggest that that is an approach to ethnic cleansing, to be targeting the minorities that are most at risk of complications from vaccines, which we can go through later about CDC data on that. But to actually be going after them saying you need flu vaccine in the mix of what we know is a Corona virus mill, you have of genomic and clinical syndromes, it should be absolutely illegal. It is so tragic that we were pushing so hard for this flu vaccine in the midst of a Corona virus. It is criminal behavior as far as I'm concerned, and it can be criminal behavior of minds that don't know.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 8, 2021)

espola said:


>


You were born in a different time.  Don't be afraid.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah that's not quick enough for total containment Australia style if you want to do outdoor only + screened indoor.  You have to get it down to an hour and during that hours you have workers idling.


Why?

You just need to catch people before the viral load gets high enough to be contagious.  A hypersensitive test that catches low viral loads works to your advantage here.  It takes 1 day to get results, but that’s not a problem if they begin to test positive 2 days before they are contagious.  This is hardly an impossible problem.  

I suspect the bigger issue is we don’t want to spend $30 per employee per day on tests and N95 masks at our meat packing plants.  When you’re only spending $12 per hour to have someone cut up your chicken for you, that $30 really eats into the profits.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why?
> 
> You just need to catch people before the viral load gets high enough to be contagious.  A hypersensitive test that catches low viral loads works to your advantage here.  It takes 1 day to get results, but that’s not a problem if they begin to test positive 2 days before they are contagious.  This is hardly an impossible problem.
> 
> I suspect the bigger issue is we don’t want to spend $30 per employee per day on tests and N95 masks at our meat packing plants.  When you’re only spending $12 per hour to have someone cut up your chicken for you, that $30 really eats into the profits.


If that's the case then why are we worried about the asymptomatics?  Why do we need masks to protect people from asymptomatics?  Just quarantine the sick, test those who do not feel or look well.  This makes no sense and has no consistency.  If you really believe this, the only rationale for current policy is that people are assholes and will show up to work sick due to incentives.  If that's really the case though you just need to change the incentives.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If that's the case then why are we worried about the asymptomatics?  Why do we need masks to protect people from asymptomatics?  Just quarantine the sick, test those who do not feel or look well.  This makes no sense and has no consistency.  If you really believe this, the only rationale for current policy is that people are assholes and will show up to work sick due to incentives.  If that's really the case though you just need to change the incentives.


I dont follow you at all.  We test because it is somewhat common to be contagious and not know it.  We wear masks for the same reason.  My kids’ schools do both already.  There is nothing wrong with a belt and suspenders approach if you really don’t like your pants falling down.

As for why not just quarantine the sick, you know the answer to that.  We do not know for sure who is sick, and we do not have test capacity for 330 million tests every two to three days so we can definitively find out.


----------



## crush (Mar 9, 2021)

I'm looking for my smart educated forum friends to help me with this.  I don;t know the answers to the "If" or the "Why."


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## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I dont follow you at all.  We test because it is somewhat common to be contagious and not know it.  We wear masks for the same reason.  My kids’ schools do both already.  There is nothing wrong with a belt and suspenders approach if you really don’t like your pants falling down.
> 
> As for why not just quarantine the sick, you know the answer to that.  We do not know for sure who is sick, and we do not have test capacity for 330 million tests every two to three days so we can definitively find out.


the problem here is that you seem to like the Australian approach then keep backing away and just want to do australia lite. The problem with Australia lite is that it’s Germany. You can’t have it both ways: if you want australia you either need a rapid test that can screen the meat packing plants And schools in an hour...or you are forced to say well maybe low viral load People like asymptomatics aren’t the problem.This is because you fundamentally misunderstood the australia approach which is to isolate and destroy any seed before it becomes a problem. So instead you engage in a rhetorical device and say” my approach is just like australia “when really it is australia lite (aka something closer to Germany where schools and meat packing plants did not close). Here’s a gut check for you: espola and husker are loving it.  Seriously many your n is showing: you’ll do anything to bend the world to your prior that we can actually control it.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> the problem here is that you seem to like the Australian approach then keep backing away and just want to do australia lite. The problem with Australia lite is that it’s Germany. You can’t have it both ways: if you want australia you either need a rapid test that can screen the meat packing plants And schools in an hour...or you are forced to say well maybe low viral load People like asymptomatics aren’t the problem.This is because you fundamentally misunderstood the australia approach which is to isolate and destroy any seed before it becomes a problem. So instead you engage in a rhetorical device and say” my approach is just like australia “when really it is australia lite (aka something closer to Germany where schools and meat packing plants did not close). Here’s a gut check for you: espola and husker are loving it.  Seriously many your n is showing: you’ll do anything to bend the world to your prior that we can actually control it.


Germany opened dining.  Back in May, Germany was still working.  It is Germany lite that failed.

The real issue is that many in the US don't want Germany heavy.  That it different from saying it never worked.


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## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Germany opened dining.  Back in May, Germany was still working.  It is Germany lite that failed.
> 
> The real issue is that many in the US don't want Germany heavy.  That it different from saying it never worked.


Again your priors are forcing you to misunderstand the Australia approach.  You are still under the illusion we can "control" this thing by doing Germany plus.  The reason the Australian (and New Zealand) approaches worked was it was to smother any seed that popped up before it became a problem (New Zealand just had an easier time of it because they didn't start with a cruise ship outbreak and are very rural  outside of Wellington and Auckland while Australia has several major cities).   It is a fundamentally different model than Germany plus so you can't claim one will work because the other did...goalpost moved BTW....where we started this was "like Australia" but now you've moved off that.  

I agree that many in the US don't want Germany Plus.  The red states would never go for it and Florida did  well with Sweden Lite.  On the left, you can't get the Ds to shut the southern border, even Trump couldn't shut down all overseas airlines, and you'd be pilloried the moment you sent out the troops to violently suppress the BLM protests in spring.


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## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

This is a very moving piece.  Seriously, the public health experts have the blood of children on their hands.  And it's not like this kid's parents ignored it and didn't give him support.  I have no doubt that if my child were older when California announced the shut down of school and sports in the summer he might have tried something like this.  My niece in fact did and had she been a few years older she would have been successful at it.  Another mechanism at work is these health experts (many of whom go into their line of work because they are introverts) have no idea the damage this does to the extroverts (for whom socialization is like food, air and water).









						The Lost Year: What the Pandemic Cost Teenagers
					

In Hobbs, New Mexico, the high school closed and football was cancelled, while just across the state line in Texas, students seemed to be living nearly normal lives. Here’s how pandemic school closures exact their emotional toll on young people.




					www.propublica.org


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## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again your priors are forcing you to misunderstand the Australia approach.  You are still under the illusion we can "control" this thing by doing Germany plus.  The reason the Australian (and New Zealand) approaches worked was it was to smother any seed that popped up before it became a problem (New Zealand just had an easier time of it because they didn't start with a cruise ship outbreak and are very rural  outside of Wellington and Auckland while Australia has several major cities).   It is a fundamentally different model than Germany plus so you can't claim one will work because the other did...goalpost moved BTW....where we started this was "like Australia" but now you've moved off that.
> 
> I agree that many in the US don't want Germany Plus.  The red states would never go for it and Florida did  well with Sweden Lite.  On the left, you can't get the Ds to shut the southern border, even Trump couldn't shut down all overseas airlines, and you'd be pilloried the moment you sent out the troops to violently suppress the BLM protests in spring.


I claim that a German approach can reduce R because, in spring, a German approach did reduce R.  You’re standing by an airport and saying that flight is impossible.  

You are also using teenagers as an excuse for adult unwillingness to sacrifice.   Teenagers don’t spend a lot of time in restaurants, bars, and casinos.  The problem is we closed all the recreation venues for teens and kept our own playgrounds open.  We had police harrassing teens outdoors in parks, while adults were hosting indoor get togethers that went unmolested.


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## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I claim that a German approach can reduce R because, in spring, a German approach did reduce R.  You’re standing by an airport and saying that flight is impossible.
> 
> You are also using teenagers as an excuse for adult unwillingness to sacrifice.   Teenagers don’t spend a lot of time in restaurants, bars, and casinos.  The problem is we closed all the recreation venues for teens and kept our own playgrounds open.  We had police harrassing teens outdoors in parks, while adults were hosting indoor get togethers that went unmolested.


The teens thing is a separate thought, not having anything to do with your position.  It wasn't in reply to you.

So now you are on Germany?  Where you started this thing you were on Australia, then Germany plus, and now Germany (except for the indoor dining).  The issue there is that you can't sustain it for a year.  Australia hasn't broken into full scale rebellion because the extreme measures were targeted and then lifted once the seed had been stamped out.  The problem you have is that people aren't capable of doing the extreme measure for not only a year until the vaccine but the continued time period you want to keep going to prevent variants.  It's an insane approach which is exactly why people have stopped listening to folks like you and the health experts.  Germany (who you so widely praised early on) couldn't do it..  The EU couldn't do it....they couldn't close their borders let alone their cities so when things finally got stomped out in say Madrid, it just got reseeded.

BTW for people who always accuse you of goalpost moving, we are literally seeing @dad4 move goalposts in the course of 24 hours (those things are heavy if they don't have wheels....you must be getting tired).

How it started and how it's going.....









						Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

crush said:


> I'm looking for my smart educated forum friends to help me with this.  I don;t know the answers to the "If" or the "Why."
> 
> View attachment 10344


Gotta love the EUA's.  Hydroxychloroquine not $exy enough for the Pharma Cartel$.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> we are literally seeing @dad4 move goalposts in the course of 24 hours


It is telling that despite the data, yesterday @dad4 was saying hey maybe classes should be held outside.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The teens thing is a separate thought, not having anything to do with your position.  It wasn't in reply to you.
> 
> So now you are on Germany?  Where you started this thing you were on Australia, then Germany plus, and now Germany (except for the indoor dining).  The issue there is that you can't sustain it for a year.  Australia hasn't broken into full scale rebellion because the extreme measures were targeted and then lifted once the seed had been stamped out.  The problem you have is that people aren't capable of doing the extreme measure for not only a year until the vaccine but the continued time period you want to keep going to prevent variants.  It's an insane approach which is exactly why people have stopped listening to folks like you and the health experts.  Germany (who you so widely praised early on) couldn't do it..  The EU couldn't do it....they couldn't close their borders let alone their cities so when things finally got stomped out in say Madrid, it just got reseeded.
> 
> ...


The goalpost is, and always was, long term R<1.0 .

It is still there, right where it was last month and last year.  

There is a line of crows sitting on top of the goalpost, because no one pays any attention to it any more.

It never was an extreme goal.  R0 was only 3.  Transmission outdoors is about 1/19 as high.  That’s well below 1.   If you are willing to move your life into the sun, you can still do most of what you normally do.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It is telling that despite the data, yesterday @dad4 was saying hey maybe classes should be held outside.


If you look at the data, class should be held outside in CA.

Outdoor transmission is about 1/19 of indoor.  It’s beautiful outside today.  Why not hold class in a park?  

And don’t tell me “kids can’t spread covid”.  The South Korea and Israel data disagrees with you there.  Teenagers spread covid just as well as adults.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The goalpost is, and always was, long term R<1.0 .
> 
> It is still there, right where it was last month and last year.
> 
> ...


Errr....Los Angeles has had almost all indoor activities closed except shops (again because it's not sustainable to keep the shops closed 1 year plus).  No indoor dining, for the worst of it no indoor haircuts, no indoor schooling, no theatres, no indoor sports.  Yes, the meat packing plants and factories open but with extreme masking and testing.  It didn't help with the winter spike.  That goalpost has moved from China to Australia to Germany and just breezed past LA....it's getting tired of looking for fantasyland.


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## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It is telling that despite the data, yesterday @dad4 was saying hey maybe classes should be held outside.


Yeah, he's the worst kind of authoritarian.  The kind that absolutely believes in control, particularly if it's his version of control, and will twist and turn every evidence against it to preserve his vision.  But at the same time tries to appear reasonable and "no, I don't want China"..."no I don't want Australia".  And is lacking in any empathy for those that are not capable of doing what he thinks is so easy.  The world actually dodged a bullet that Fauci was in charge instead of someone like him.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, he's the worst kind of authoritarian.  The kind that absolutely believes in control, particularly if it's his version of control, and will twist and turn every evidence against it to preserve his vision.  But at the same time tries to appear reasonable and "no, I don't want China"..."no I don't want Australia".  And is lacking in any empathy for those that are not capable of doing what he thinks is so easy.  The world actually dodged a bullet that Fauci was in charge instead of someone like him.


It doesn’t speak well for your argument that you prefer ad-hominem labels like “authoritarian” to talking about the data.

If you have a real argument to make, make it.  

But please make it something better than “Any enforcement of any rules for covid means I must be living in an authoritarian state.”


----------



## watfly (Mar 9, 2021)

We can attempt to rationalize all day long, or for 120 pages, about how more restrictive lockdowns worked against Covid even though the state by state results in deaths or infections don't substantiate that conclusion.  However, like most of us have been saying from the beginning Covid is really only part of the equation.  The unemployment statistics are far more telling.  California now ranks 50th for highest unemployment (DC included) only in front of Hawaii.   The most telling difference is between California and Florida considering their approach to lockdowns.  Here is a sampling.


 Unemployment Rate State Dec 2019  Dec 2020  Inc/(Decr) California             3.9             9.3                 5.4New York             4.0             8.7                 4.7Texas             3.5             6.9                 3.4Florida             3.0             5.1                 2.1Georgia             3.2             5.3                 2.1Utah             2.3             3.3                 1.0


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## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It doesn’t speak well for your argument that you prefer ad-hominem labels like “authoritarian” to talking about the data.
> 
> If you have a real argument to make, make it.
> 
> But please make it something better than “Any enforcement of any rules for covid means I must be living in an authoritarian state.”


It's not an argument since it wasn't made directly at you (I think we've pounded that one into dust and you've moved that goal post all around the world now....China, Australia, Germany now back to Los Angeles).  The fact that we started this with Australia shows you are in love with authoritarianism...just my opinion but only an authoritarian could love Australia.  You'd also like for the restrictions to keep going for more than a year and have shown very little empathy for those who aren't as virtuous and can't do things as well as you can....that's a fact.  You also have a tendency to keep backing off the most extreme of your authoritarian positions, (and now this part is also opinion) less because you don't love them, but because you are trying to appear "reasonable" and make your approach seem relatively easy.  All this is in service of a bit of a religious belief you have, that every nation on earth got it wrong, except for a handful (which you tend to disavow when challenge), and that the virus is controllable.

It says nothing about you as a person BTW.  It's just an observation that you have this real authoritarian streak.  Your value as a person depends what you would do with it.  I have no evidence one way or another on that, and am not your judge.  That's between you and God.  Which is why I said "someone like you" (with the same streak but willing to use it) instead of "you".


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> We can attempt to rationalize all day long, or for 120 pages, about how more restrictive lockdowns worked against Covid even though the state by state results in deaths or infections don't substantiate that conclusion.  However, like most of us have been saying from the beginning Covid is really only part of the equation.  The unemployment statistics are far more telling.  California now ranks 50th for highest unemployment (DC included) only in front of Hawaii.   The most telling difference is between California and Florida considering their approach to lockdowns.  Here is a sampling.
> 
> 
> Unemployment RateStateDec 2019Dec 2020Inc/(Decr)California             3.9             9.3                 5.4New York             4.0             8.7                 4.7Texas             3.5             6.9                 3.4Florida             3.0             5.1                 2.1Georgia             3.2             5.3                 2.1Utah             2.3             3.3                 1.0


Include OR and WA.  You need some states with small cities and a tough response.

From what you gave, I can't tell whether the issue is city size or pandemic response.  Maybe you just proved that big cities are vulnerable to economic downturns.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's not an argument since it wasn't made directly at you (I think we've pounded that one into dust and you've moved that goal post all around the world now....China, Australia, Germany now back to Los Angeles).  The fact that we started this with Australia shows you are in love with authoritarianism...just my opinion but only an authoritarian could love Australia.  You'd also like for the restrictions to keep going for more than a year and have shown very little empathy for those who aren't as virtuous and can't do things as well as you can't....that's a fact.  You also have a tendency to keep backing off the most extreme of your authoritarian positions, (and now this part is also opinion) less because you don't love them, but because you are trying to appear "reasonable" and make your approach seem relatively easy.  All this is in service of a bit of a religious belief you have, that every nation on earth got it wrong, except for a handful (which you tend to disavow when challenge), and that the virus is controllable.
> 
> It says nothing about you as a person BTW.  It's just an observation that you have this real authoritarian streak.  Your value as a person depends what you would do with it.  I have no evidence one way or another on that, and am not your judge.  That's between you and God.  Which is why I said "someone like you" (with the same streak but willing to use it) instead of "you".


More ad hominem?

And the goalpost, as ever, is R<1.0.  It never moved.  You're just ignoring it.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> More ad hominem?
> 
> And the goalpost, as ever, is R<1.0.  It never moved.  You're just ignoring it.


You are moving it.  You started with Australia then backed off to Germany plus then Germany.  You moved it.  You do it all the time.

And again, it's not an ad because it's not an argument.  It's an observation about your operating system.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And don’t tell me “kids can’t spread covid”.  The South Korea and Israel data disagrees with you there.  Teenagers spread covid just as well as adults.


Which one “Kids” or “teenagers”?  Not enough scientific evidence to show “Kids” can spread it.  There may be more (although isolated) evidence that older, teenagers can.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Which one “Kids” or “teenagers”?  Not enough scientific evidence to show “Kids” can spread it.  There may be more (although isolated) evidence that older, teenagers can.


The SK study concluded that age 0-9 are about 50% as effective at transmission.


----------



## watfly (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Include OR and WA.  You need some states with small cities and a tough response.
> 
> From what you gave, I can't tell whether the issue is city size or pandemic response.  Maybe you just proved that big cities are vulnerable to economic downturns.


The numbers speak for themselves, particularly as it relates to California and Florida where Florida is a more densely populated state (although some studies dispute whether population density impacts Covid) with a higher percentage of tourism.   I'm not going to spend 100 pages going back in forth with you as you try rationalize why something isn't what it is because your controlled by your own fear based narrative.  If you want to live in your theoretical math world, more power to you, but please let me proceed in living in the real world where we have to make decisions based on both objective and subjective inputs.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are moving it.  You started with Australia then backed off to Germany plus then Germany.  You moved it.  You do it all the time.
> 
> And again, it's not an ad because it's not an argument.  It's an observation about your operating system.


You mentioned Germany, then you came up with "Germany plus".

You can't change the topic, then accuse me if moving the goalpost.

I still believe that, for most of the US, masks + testing + outside + close indoor dining is enough to bring R below 1.  R0 is only 3.  We aren't talking smallpox here.

Areas like LA with very large substandard housing problems may need more.  Or may not.  It may be enough just to provide even more free testing in the low income areas.  And you never even really tried to enforce the indoor gatherings rules.


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's not an argument since it wasn't made directly at you (I think we've pounded that one into dust and you've moved that goal post all around the world now....China, Australia, Germany now back to Los Angeles).  The fact that we started this with Australia shows you are in love with authoritarianism...just my opinion but only an authoritarian could love Australia.  You'd also like for the restrictions to keep going for more than a year and have shown very little empathy for those who aren't as virtuous and can't do things as well as you can....that's a fact.  You also have a tendency to keep backing off the most extreme of your authoritarian positions, (and now this part is also opinion) less because you don't love them, but because you are trying to appear "reasonable" and make your approach seem relatively easy.  All this is in service of a bit of a religious belief you have, that every nation on earth got it wrong, except for a handful (which you tend to disavow when challenge), and that the virus is controllable.
> 
> It says nothing about you as a person BTW.  It's just an observation that you have this real authoritarian streak.  Your value as a person depends what you would do with it.  I have no evidence one way or another on that, and am not your judge.  That's between you and God.  Which is why I said "someone like you" (with the same streak but willing to use it) instead of "you".


Despite your denials, that is pretty much all ad-hominem.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Despite your denials, that is pretty much all ad-hominem.


An ad is an attempt to advance an argument through an attack on the speaker.  I'm not trying to advance any argument.  It wasn't made in reply to him or his argument.  I'm making an observation, which is my thing.


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are moving it.  You started with Australia then backed off to Germany plus then Germany.  You moved it.  You do it all the time.
> 
> And again, it's not an ad because it's not an argument.  It's an observation about your operating system.


Pitiful


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You mentioned Germany, then you came up with "Germany plus".
> 
> You can't change the topic, then accuse me if moving the goalpost.
> 
> ...


You started with Australia and then moved off of it.  Now you are at masks + testing + outside + close indoor dining.  So we are in Los Angeles, which did all that but it didn't work.  So now you move the goalpost again and say well that's because of the housing problem and lack of indoor gathering rule enforcement  There's always another river to cross.  But we've discussed before, how are you going to tell that people are gathering inside to celebrate thanksgiving unless you have police barricading the roads or neighbors informing on neighbors.  Again, your authoritarian streak is showing and again, goalpost moved because now its masks + testing + outside + closed indoor dining + some kind of yet to be stated enforcement against indoor private gatherings.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Pitiful


"Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"

For purposes of instruction that's an ad in response to an ad.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> An ad is an attempt to advance an argument through an attack on the speaker.  I'm not trying to advance any argument.  It wasn't made in reply to him or his argument.  I'm making an observation, which is my thing.


Got it.  As long as I say it to someone else, it doesn’t count as an ad-hominem.

Espola, Grace is a half-wit who can’t string two coherent thoughts together without resorting to insults.

Grace, did I do it correctly?  It still sounds like a lame attack on the person instead of a logical discussion.


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"
> 
> For purposes of instruction that's an ad in response to an ad.


Since ad-homs are your strong point, you should probably just stick with them.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you look at the data, class should be held outside in CA.
> 
> Outdoor transmission is about 1/19 of indoor.  It’s beautiful outside today.  Why not hold class in a park?
> 
> And don’t tell me “kids can’t spread covid”.  The South Korea and Israel data disagrees with you there.  Teenagers spread covid just as well as adults.


No they don't.  They spread SARS-COv2.  The COVID Disease may not even visually present itself.  Thank goodness your innate immune system doesn't care about  outward appearances.  It attacks and solicits intel to deploy T and B cells from our adaptive immune system to squash the virus and reduce symptoms to boogers and a few sneezes.  Maybe a couple of loogies vigorously launched down range.  Hence the near 100% recovery rate.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Got it.  As long as I say it to someone else, it doesn’t count as an ad-hominem.
> 
> Espola, Grace is a half-wit who can’t string two coherent thoughts together without resorting to insults.
> 
> Grace, did I do it correctly?  It still sounds like a lame attack on the person instead of a logical discussion.


1. You did it in reply to me so no you still didn't do it right. You could have responded to espola.
2. Notwithstanding 1. above, it's still not an ad.  An ad is an attack on the speaker to advance an argument.  It's different than an insult.  It's different than an observation, which can also be insulting but not directed as an insult.  We are now no longer arguing the initial point, but instead the merits, uses and limits of ads, so it's actually an illustrative point rather than being an ad.
3. Your insult/observation is a poor one because it is patently false on its face.  My (much like espola is to espola) favorite topic is me.  There are plenty of observations you could make about me which would actually be very interesting to discuss, such as my tendency towards skepticism or very strong libertarian streak which sometimes spills beyond the rational.  Another one of my operating principles is a very high level of self-awareness, so when in the past people have criticized me for certain tendency I'm quick to own up with them.  Another one of these tendencies is sadism because unlike watfly I'm willing to engage in these lengthy back and forths with you and espola that would drive others like kicker mad with the futility. See I love talking about myself...my favorite subject....only espola has me beat there.
4. My second favorite topic after myself is people.  I like to know how people think.  I care not only about the argument but why people make the argument (particularly when they take positions which in my opinion are not sustainable based on reality).  It is as fascinating to me as the argument itself, and a source of equally valid discussion.  I like that I've begun to construct a pretty good model of how you operate...not making a judgement, it just fascinates me.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"
> 
> For purposes of instruction that's an ad in response to an ad.


Except he was calling your argument lame.  You were calling him lame.  Both ads, but only yours was ad hominem.



espola said:


> Since ad-homs are your strong point, you should probably just stick with them.


Magoo, Grace is the misbegotten daughter of a flea ridden sewer rat.

There. I squeezed multiple insults into one authoritarian sentence.  But I replied to someone else so it’s all ok.

And why does Espola get the cool nick name?  That’s not fair.  From now on, I am Usagi Yojimbo.

-Yojimbo


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Since ad-homs are your strong point, you should probably just stick with them.


I like the little yellow car better....


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It doesn’t speak well for your argument that you prefer ad-hominem labels like “authoritarian” to talking about the data.
> 
> If you have a real argument to make, make it.
> 
> But please make it something better than “Any enforcement of any rules for covid means I must be living in an authoritarian state.”


: favoring or enforcing strict obedience to authority, especially that of the government, at the expense of personal freedom 

What did GT miss?


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Got it.  As long as I say it to someone else, it doesn’t count as an ad-hominem.
> 
> Espola, Grace is a half-wit who can’t string two coherent thoughts together without resorting to insults.
> 
> Grace, did I do it correctly?  It still sounds like a lame attack on the person instead of a logical discussion.


I have noticed that despite her education she can't help herself.  

(I'm just making an objective observation here - no insult intended)


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Except he was calling your argument lame.  You were calling him lame.  Both ads, but only yours was ad hominem.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


No, knowing Magoo, he wasn't.

And wow there's an obscure reference, but respect Usagi.


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I like the little yellow car better....


Of course you do.  It's a cheap way to fend off a salient point.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> I have noticed that despite her education she can't help herself.
> 
> (I'm just making an objective observation here - no insult intended)


All authoritarians make objective observations not intended to insult.  It's part of their allure.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> I have noticed that despite her education she can't help herself.
> 
> (I'm just making an objective observation here - no insult intended)


Errr...you know my rule. The insult was perfectly directed as you.  

As to dad it's not.  But he does have a mean authoritarian streak.  As Bruddah points out, it's pretty self-evident. It's funny too he reacts badly to being called out on it.  I mean he has an authoritarian streak....it's there for all to see.  As a libertarian, I find that pretty chilling.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Of course you do.  It's a cheap way to fend off a salient point.


Nah, it's just a way to show you how I really feel about you.  The difference between our interactions and dad4 is I really respect dad4.  He's a closet authoritarian, yes, but there's a lot to respect there too.


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Except he was calling your argument lame.  You were calling him lame.  Both ads, but only yours was ad hominem.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I have wondered about the nickname myself.  Mr. Magoo is old, bald, fat, and nearsighted.  I qualify on those points only as old, which makes Grace's attacks on me using that slur a classic example of what they call age-ism.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> An ad is an attempt to advance an argument through an attack on the speaker.  I'm not trying to advance any argument.  It wasn't made in reply to him or his argument.  I'm making an observation, which is my thing.


How on earth do you have any "wearable" shoes remaining?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> I have wondered about the nickname myself.  Mr. Magoo is old, bald, fat, and nearsighted.  I qualify on those points only as old, which makes Grace's attacks on me using that slur a classic example of what they call age-ism.


It's your tendency to get lost and then stubbornly deny that you are lost as the salient points whip past you.  You are the character dude.  If you were a little nicer of a person, it would actually be quite sad as I'm sure in your day you were quite fearsome.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

LA Teachers Told To Hide Vacation Plans Because Of Bad COVID Optics
					

It's not a good day to be a part of the United Teachers Los Angeles (or UTLA) union. On Monday night, Bill Melugin with Fox 11 Los Angeles tweeted out a




					www.outkick.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> LA Teachers Told To Hide Vacation Plans Because Of Bad COVID Optics
> 
> 
> It's not a good day to be a part of the United Teachers Los Angeles (or UTLA) union. On Monday night, Bill Melugin with Fox 11 Los Angeles tweeted out a
> ...


I posted that in the "Good News" thread as Kicker pointed out that identifying hypocrisy was a positive thing.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nah, it's just a way to show you how I really feel about you.  The difference between our interactions and dad4 is I really respect dad4.  He's a closet authoritarian, yes, but there's a lot to respect there too.


Then you also need a better nickname.  "Grace Karen" is not worthy.

Given your love of rules, I'm thinking Ramona would work.

-Yojimbo


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's your tendency to get lost and then stubbornly deny that you are lost as the salient points whip past you.  You are the character dude.  If you were a little nicer of a person, it would actually be quite sad as I'm sure in your day you were quite fearsome.


More of the same.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Then you also need a better nickname.  "Grace Karen" is not worthy.
> 
> Given your love of rules, I'm thinking Ramona would work.
> 
> -Yojimbo


Karen implies that I'd turn people in for violating the rules like my neighbors.  I told the Dangy Bros next door I had no problem with their kegger.  If anything, is there an anti-Karen?  The problem with the term Karen is it's become somewhat a generic and sexist term for any woman who complains publicly about anything.  The term originally was used to describe a woman (typically white, which I am not) to "tell" on a person of color (which I am) to the authorities.   I know what a Yojimbo is but don't know the reference to Ramona.  NOTF was closer with the c word, but you are too good for that.  Keep trying.  We'll settle on something Yoji.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Karen implies that I'd turn people in for violating the rules like my neighbors.  I told the Dangy Bros next door I had no problem with their kegger.  If anything, is there an anti-Karen?  The problem with the term Karen is it's become somewhat a generic and sexist term for any woman who complains publicly about anything.  The term originally was used to describe a woman (typically white, which I am not) to "tell" on a person of color (which I am) to the authorities.   I know what a Yojimbo is but don't know the reference to Ramona.  NOTF was closer with the c word, but you are too good for that.  Keep trying.  We'll settle on something Yoji.


Ramona is from the Beverly Clearly books.   Standard little sister character who ignores rules and has to do everything her way.  

You could also go with Miss Scrimmage if you like early Gordan Korman.  That one is more ironic, since she's the authoritarian head of a girls finishing school.

-Yojimbo


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ramona is from the Beverly Clearly books.   Standard little sister character who ignores rules and has to do everything her way.
> 
> You could also go with Miss Scrimmage if you like early Gordan Korman.  That one is more ironic, since she's the authoritarian head of a girls finishing school.
> 
> -Yojimbo


Sadly, neither is in my bailiwick of reading materials, probably because a. I have boys, and b. they both hopped over their young adult reading phase (younger is on Hunger Games and starting Treasure Island, older is on Les Miserables).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

First of all, a legitimate question: if masks were the obvious approach all along, why is Dr. Fauci speaking unmasked in this March 2020 picture, and surrounded by other unmasked people? Wasn't he concerned about their lives?

(Not to mention all the unmasked reporters in that room. Didn't he have a moral obligation to urge them to wear masks?)








Or could masks simply have been politically convenient, a way for politicians, in the midst of a problem beyond their control, to appear to be "doing something" while having an easy scapegoat -- unmasked people -- if the numbers didn't go their way?

The UK, meanwhile, has just undergone its third lockdown. Cases have come way down. Naturally the politicians are congratulating themselves: the lockdown did it!

Except the United States was not on lockdown during that time, and yet the same trajectory is evident in both places. As Ian Miller (my guest for the forthcoming episode #1851 of the Tom Woods Show) puts it, the UK lockdown was so powerful it also brought the numbers down in the U.S.! It's like magic!










(Source: World Health Organization)

And then finally: remember the claim that we'd be out of this with just four to eight weeks of masking? Yeah, about that:










(Source: covid19 dot who dot int/region/amro/country/us)


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> ​
> First of all, a legitimate question: if masks were the obvious approach all along, why is Dr. Fauci speaking unmasked in this March 2020 picture, and surrounded by other unmasked people? Wasn't he concerned about their lives?
> 
> (Not to mention all the unmasked reporters in that room. Didn't he have a moral obligation to urge them to wear masks?)
> ...


Masks were not obvious.

We have spent decades thinking that the purpose of a mask is to protect the wearer.  

It took time for Fauci and everyone else to begin to think of masks as controlling the virus at the source.

The rest of your post is a non-scientist with photoshop trying to do science.  There are statistical tools for that kind of work.  If you don't know how to use them, that's fine, but you can respect the opinions of those who do.


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


>


Of course.  John "Dr. Science" Stossel.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Sadly, neither is in my bailiwick of reading materials, probably because a. I have boys, and b. they both hopped over their young adult reading phase (younger is on Hunger Games and starting Treasure Island, older is on Les Miserables).


Grace, consider an animated superhero. I recommend WordGirl for you. It's certainly not as highbrow as Yojimbo, but much better than what @dad4 has been suggesting.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Masks were not obvious.
> 
> We have spent decades thinking that the purpose of a mask is to protect the wearer.
> 
> ...


Yes I've noticed your statistical religiosity and your selective Science.  Please don't make excuses for Fauci's mask mea culpa.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Grace, consider an animated superhero. I recommend WordGirl for you. It's certainly not as highbrow as Yojimbo, but much better than what @dad4 has been suggesting.


We would recommend one for you, but kicking and screaming is such an awesome name already.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Of course.  John "Dr. Science" Stossel.


Notice Bill Nye the Population control guy is nowhere to be seen.  But to your point, I found Fauci to be more scientific than Stossel who only asked questions regarding the distribution of shots.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you look at the data, class should be held outside in CA.


No. We have tons of data from other states/countries that have been having classes since summer. 

There isn't an issue. 

The only people pretending there is are the unions and apparently you.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Grace, consider an animated superhero. I recommend WordGirl for you. It's certainly not as highbrow as Yojimbo, but much better than what @dad4 has been suggesting.


WordGirl I know.  My older says I should be Dora.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> No. We have tons of data from other states/countries that have been having classes since summer.
> 
> There isn't an issue.
> 
> The only people pretending there is are the unions and apparently you.


Where do you get the idea that there have not been any problems?  Israel first reported school based outbreaks several months ago.

That's like saying no one ever caught covid at a taqueria.  It's just not true.


----------



## N00B (Mar 9, 2021)

Guess we know where the state is on school reopening at middle and high school levels....





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That's like saying no one ever caught covid at a taqueria. It's just not true.


No one is saying there have not been cases at schools. 

However it hasn't been an issue.

Nationwide you have something like 250 deaths TOTAL under 17. Under 24 is well less than 1k. 

Why you pretend it is otherwise is not rational. 

To look at that data and think...hey you know what...to be safe we should hold classes outside means you have an issue understanding DATA.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> No one is saying there have not been cases at schools.
> 
> However it hasn't been an issue.
> 
> ...


Perhaps you should clarify what you mean by "an issue".

To you, a school outbreak is an issue if it has dead youth.  Your post lists no other kind of potential issue.

Personally, I would count dead teachers or dead relatives as at least a minor issue.  Raising the overall infection levels of infection in a community is also somewhat problematic.  Your attempt at data addressed none of those questions.  

Data is not just a body count of dead kids.  Data includes estimates of the in-school infection rate, the expected increase to the number of cases in the community, the expected impact on overall Rt, and, by extension, an estimate for the extent to which the added cases do or do not cause deaths in a wider community outbreak.

It's not as simple as looking up under 17 mortality rates on google, and then writing "DATA" in capital letters.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> To you, a school outbreak is an issue if it has dead youth.  Your post lists no other kind of potential issue.


Cases shutdown economies.  Not deaths.  Not near 100% recoveries in the absence of vaccines.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Perhaps you should clarify what you mean by "an issue".
> 
> To you, a school outbreak is an issue if it has dead youth.  Your post lists no other kind of potential issue.
> 
> ...


The problem you have is you accept zero risk. 

A substantial number of states and countries have had schools in person without issue. They have looked at teacher deaths, spread, etc. 

And you know what they find? It isn't an issue. 

The issue is places like CA that have 95% of the kids not taking in person classes and getting left behind. 

As usual you run zero cost benefits when you look at this issue of covid. 

A new variant? You want everyone to hide again, close biz, etc. 

Over time you and the people who believe like you are a dwindling number.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem you have is you accept zero risk.


Everybody tends to agree now that the mortality of this thing is 99.99% nonfatal, but that 0.002 is enough for us to continue this narrative. *That's the amount of fear leverage that we've got on this thing.*


----------



## whatithink (Mar 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem you have is you accept zero risk.
> 
> A substantial number of states and countries have had schools in person without issue. They have looked at teacher deaths, spread, etc.
> 
> ...


I've no doubt that Dad4 can/will defend himself, but I can see his (a teacher) annoyance with you constant sounding off on the schools, because you ONLY pick one set of facts, which is true, and ignore the adults that are required to actually allow the schools to function. Kids are unlikely to get sick or seriously sick, but they can spread it, the youngers to a lesser extent and the teenagers the same as adults. Teaching in a room with 20/30 kids for 6 hours a day is an increased risk for an adult.

I'm happy my kids are in school and grateful that they can be. I'm especially grateful for those taking risks due to their age / conditions to make it happen.

BTW, my sister is a teacher ... got COVID, gave it to her daughter too before she knew she had it. Knocked her down for 2 weeks and took her another 2/3 weeks for her to fully recover. She's healthy, not in a risky age group and has no underlying conditions - not of that mattered.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 9, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I've no doubt that Dad4 can/will defend himself, but I can see his (a teacher) annoyance with you constant sounding off on the schools, because you ONLY pick one set of facts, which is true, and ignore the adults that are required to actually allow the schools to function. Kids are unlikely to get sick or seriously sick, but they can spread it, the youngers to a lesser extent and the teenagers the same as adults. Teaching in a room with 20/30 kids for 6 hours a day is an increased risk for an adult.
> 
> I'm happy my kids are in school and grateful that they can be. I'm especially grateful for those taking risks due to their age / conditions to make it happen.
> 
> BTW, my sister is a teacher ... got COVID, gave it to her daughter too before she knew she had it. Knocked her down for 2 weeks and took her another 2/3 weeks for her to fully recover. She's healthy, not in a risky age group and has no underlying conditions - not of that mattered.


To be fair as I discuss the schools, the numbers coming back show there have not been issues with the teachers as well. 

So it is not a situation where the kids are OK, but the teachers are getting hammered. If there was an issue relating to the adults in the schools, the data and reports would show that. 

The at risk population for covid are old individuals with health issues which is not the profile of teachers or admins at schools. 

Look around other states and countries who have been had people in class now since summer/late aug. If there were an issue with teachers we would hear about it. The unions would be publishing the data on it. 

Frankly we have LOTS of professions that are in constant contact with people ALL day long who go to work and do their job and are not dropping like flies are anywhere close to it. Actually let me rephrase that. Almost ALL professions are back at work and dealing with people on a daily basis. 

So yes I sound off on schools and the teachers/unions that pretend they cannot safely go to work. Look at the data. Look at the various medical associations who recommend kids should be in school. They are not making those recommendations if they think teachers/admins are at risk.

So no I do not pick only one set of facts. Go look at the data of who is at risk of covid. It is the elderly and/or people with health issues. 

The fact is in many large cities, the unions have screwed kids over by not having their members teach in person.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

*Leading Causes of Death*
Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths for leading causes of death

Heart disease: 659,041
Cancer: 599,601
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 173,040
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 156,979
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 150,005
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,499
Diabetes: 87,647
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 51,565
Influenza and pneumonia: 49,783
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,511
Source: Mortality in the United States, 2019, data table for figure 2


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I've no doubt that Dad4 can/will defend himself, but I can see his (a teacher) annoyance with you constant sounding off on the schools, because you ONLY pick one set of facts, which is true, and ignore the adults that are required to actually allow the schools to function. Kids are unlikely to get sick or seriously sick, but they can spread it, the youngers to a lesser extent and the teenagers the same as adults. Teaching in a room with 20/30 kids for 6 hours a day is an increased risk for an adult.
> 
> I'm happy my kids are in school and grateful that they can be. I'm especially grateful for those taking risks due to their age / conditions to make it happen.
> 
> BTW, my sister is a teacher ... got COVID, gave it to her daughter too before she knew she had it. Knocked her down for 2 weeks and took her another 2/3 weeks for her to fully recover. She's healthy, not in a risky age group and has no underlying conditions - not of that mattered.


Yet, we are forcing grocery store workers, restaurant workers, health care workers, meat packing plant employees, factor workers, television/news employees, Costco workers, bicycle store workers, Best Buy workers, gym employees, hairdressers, dental hygenists, liquor and marijuana store workers, and ice cream store workers to work.  Teachers, who they say have the important job of teaching kids, somehow take a pass.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

__





						Amazon.com: How to Lie with Statistics: 9780393310726: Huff, Darrell, Geis, Irving: Books
					

Amazon.com: How to Lie with Statistics: 9780393310726: Huff, Darrell, Geis, Irving: Books



					www.amazon.com


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yet, we are forcing grocery store workers, restaurant workers, health care workers, meat packing plant employees, factor workers, television/news employees, Costco workers, bicycle store workers, Best Buy workers, gym employees, hairdressers, dental hygenists, liquor and marijuana store workers, and ice cream store workers to work.  Teachers, who they say have the important job of teaching kids, somehow take a pass.


I think only the gym employees of those on your list could do a credible version of their job via Zoom meeting.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> I think only the gym employees of those on your list could do a credible version of their job via Zoom meeting.


Well, the teachers aren't doing a very credible version of their jobs via remote learning (and there are many many sources, but since I know you love them, here's 3).  The gym employees would actually have them beat.









						All-remote learning is failing many students all across the country: "These children are struggling"
					

New studies suggest the disruption to in-person education is taking a heavy toll, from higher rates of failing grades to increased mental health incidents




					www.cbsnews.com
				












						The empty gradebook: As students struggle with remote learning, teachers grapple with Fs
					

More students are failing classes. But teachers say they’ve tried to keep an even larger number from falling off track.




					www.chalkbeat.org
				












						The remote learning failure continues
					

Remote education has been a failure. Children are failing, cutting class, and never getting to see their friends.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com
				



.


----------



## espola (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well, the teachers aren't doing a very credible version of their jobs via remote learning (and there are many many sources, but since I know you love them, here's 3).  The gym employees would actually have them beat.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Now do meat packers.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Now do meat packers.


Alright you two, get a room.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

We do not take a healthy population, quarantine them all, mask them all up so that they don't spread something that they don't have. This is insanity. Any epidemiologist or virologists will tell you this. We've never treated people like this before. And what we're doing is creating a culture where we shame each other. We look at each other as if you're selfish and you're mean if you don't wear a mask, which is not true at all. That whole conversation has to be out in the open and addressed because people have bought into that. It's become virtue signaling basically.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

Government has a right to impose those rules. Society has a right to do that but there's a process for doing it. The process is this that the government needs to publish a notice of the rule making so they'll publish the proposed rule which says we're going to make everybody mask and that could be 24 hours a day or do you just do it when you're in public buildings or in public areas, whatever. Everybody gets to see the rule and to understand all the implications of the rule. Then they have to publish, create and publish an environmental impact statement, regulatory impact statement, an economic impact statement that says here's how many businesses are going to bankrupt, here are the businesses that will probably go bankrupt and here are the other public rights that are going to be restricted. Here are the costs we believe are going to be imposed by the counter measures and compare those to the costs that are being imposed by COVID and then there's a public hearing on that. They have to lay out in that environmental regulatory and economic impact statements all of the science that they relied on so the specific studies, the opinions of the specific scientists.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

Then you have a public hearing, you have a comment time when you usually have 60 days. The public from all different parts of the public file comments on it which have to be responded to by the proponents of that law. Then you have a public hearing and in that public hearing they bring their experts who testify about the science and we're allowed to bring our experts and we can cross examine their experts, they can cross examine us and you have a debate that is aired publicly, there's a transcript that everybody can read. Then you have a finding by the judge and recommendation for edits or changes or amendments to the law based upon what we are... *None of that process took place. We just have one unelected bureaucrat, Tony Fauci who says in March masks don't work, in April they do work. Therefore without citing any science and now everybody's got to wear them. Lockdowns don't work, they're ridiculous. The restrictions on travel don't work he said at one point they're ridiculous. Then he comes back without citing any science and said now everybody do it, fall in line because I said so.*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

I think it was Mark Twain who said that it's easier to fool somebody than to convince that person that they've been fooled. I think that it's not just the regulators who are acting in a self interest way to increase their power. *Medical regulators have a long history of aligning themselves with tyranny. In Hitler's Germany there were more doctors who joined the Nazi party than any other profession and the medical experiments that were a key feature of the Third Reich, they were all endorsed by the leading medial associations, many of the leading doctors in Nazi Germany took part in those experiments, endorsed them, endorsed the elimination of people who were they called free eaters or worthless eaters. People who had intellectual disabilities, people who had physical disabilities who virtually all of the doctors in Nazi Germany were writing evaluations that said this person should not be allowed to live. Were participating in that before they started killing gypsies and Jews, they were killing people who had intellectual disabilities and people who had physical disabilities and the doctors were participating in that.*


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> WordGirl I know.  My older says I should be Dora.


Oh, Dora is good, but you have WordGirl's nonchalant humor and I could never imagine you saying, "Swiper, no swiping."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

There wasn't a single medical voice in Germany during that part, that point in history that was complaining about this. None of the prominent doctors, none of the university medical schools et cetera and so the idea and this whole idea that we should trust the experts. You hear Joe Biden who I've known for many years and I like Joe Biden but this idea t*hat democrats have adopted and liberals have adopted that we should trust the experts is absolutely antithetical to democracy. We don't trust experts. You listen to the experts, you weigh their opinions. You weigh their assessments. You don't turn democracy over to them.* I've brought hundreds and hundreds of cases and I've been involved with many, many, many trials during my lifetime almost all of them involve some kind of scientific controversy.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

On both sides of a trial you have experts and leading experts. We tried the Monsanto cases the last couple of years, my wife came to sit in on the trial a couple days. The first day that she came Monsanto had its experts on the stand and these were people from the Harvard School of Public Heath. They were people of the most highly credentialed people in the country and they were very, very convincing and at the end of the day she turned to me and she said, "Why are you guys even in here? Clearly Round Up is not dangerous to people. It doesn't cause cancer." I said to her, "Wait," and then we got to cross examine those experts and they fell apart and then we got to bring in our own experts and she heard them. There were experts on both sides. Both of them could be very convincing in a vacuum. *You cannot simply say I'm going to rely on this expert because and turn democracy over to them.*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

That's why we elect politicians, that's why we pay them to be able to run these agencies, to listen to the agency heads not simply to turn to abdicate their political and democratic power to non-elected apparatchiks who are going to profit. The more catastrophic this disease is the more it amplifies their personal power and their influence and their ability to get on TV every day and have people worshiping them and to have people revering them and listening to them and have everybody paying attention and that is power. *Tony Fauci has been in power for... He's the J. Edgar Hoover of public health. He's lasted there for 50 years because he has good political skills, not because he's a great scientist. The great scientists at that agency were Bernice Eddie who got run out, Julie Mikovits who got run out. Sean Anthony Morris who got run out because they were coming up with science that challenged the profit taking agendas of the industry that that agency's supposed to regulate.*


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 9, 2021)

*The people who have staying power at that agency are people who figure out ways to get in the tank with the pharmaceutical companies and do their bidding. Tony Fauci's been doing that for 50 years in every instance. If you go through his career, that's what he had been doing. The idea that we should now turn all the power of the federal government over not just public health but over our economy, over our constitutional or our political movements, he's never made an assessment about what quarantines do to an economy and what unemployment does to human life. There are a lot of people who have made those studies. There was a whole industry in those studies back in the 1980's when all of these big industries, these big corporations like General Electric and General Motors were downsizing and there was a cottage industry at that time where you had a whole school of economists who were looking at the impacts of unemployment and what they found was that there's a very kind of predictable formula that at every one point unemployment at that time was killing 37,000 people. Our population was half of what it is today so that's like 60,000 people who we can expect to die from every point of unemployment.*


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## Hüsker Dü (Mar 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well, the teachers aren't doing a very credible version of their jobs via remote learning (and there are many many sources, but since I know you love them, here's 3).  The gym employees would actually have them beat.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Our schools have been failing us for years and years. How else would you explain Q and t?


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 10, 2021)

Lasting immunity found after recovery from COVID-19

After people recover from infection with a virus, the immune system retains a memory of it. Immune cells and proteins that circulate in the body can recognize and kill the pathogen if it’s encountered again, protecting against disease and reducing illness severity.

This long-term immune protection involves several components. Antibodies—proteins that circulate in the blood—recognize foreign substances like viruses and neutralize them. Different types of T cells help recognize and kill pathogens. B cells make new antibodies when the body needs them.
All of these immune-system components have been found in people who recover from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. But the details of this immune response and how long it lasts after infection have been unclear. Scattered reports of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 have raised concerns that the immune response to the virus might not be durable.

To better understand immune memory of SARS-CoV-2, researchers led by Drs. Daniela Weiskopf, Alessandro Sette, and Shane Crotty from the La Jolla Institute for Immunology analyzed immune cells and antibodies from almost 200 people who had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and recovered.
Time since infection ranged from six days after symptom onset to eight months later. More than 40 participants had been recovered for more than six months before the study began. About 50 people provided blood samples at more than one time after infection.
The research was funded in part by NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and National Cancer Institute (NCI). Results were published on January 6, 2021, in _Science_.

The researchers found durable immune responses in the majority of people studied. Antibodies against the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, which the virus uses to get inside cells, were found in 98% of participants one month after symptom onset. As seen in previous studies, the number of antibodies ranged widely between individuals. But, promisingly, their levels remained fairly stable over time, declining only modestly at 6 to 8 months after infection.

Virus-specific B cells increased over time. People had more memory B cells six months after symptom onset than at one month afterwards. Although the number of these cells appeared to reach a plateau after a few months, levels didn’t decline over the period studied.
Levels of T cells for the virus also remained high after infection. Six months after symptom onset, 92% of participants had CD4+ T cells that recognized the virus. These cells help coordinate the immune response. About half the participants had CD8+ T cells, which kill cells that are infected by the virus.

As with antibodies, the numbers of different immune cell types varied substantially between individuals. Neither gender nor differences in disease severity could account for this variability. However, 95% of the people had at least 3 out of 5 immune-system components that could recognize SARS-CoV-2 up to 8 months after infection.

“Several months ago, our studies showed that natural infection induced a strong response, and this study now shows that the responses last,” Weiskopf says. “We are hopeful that a similar pattern of responses lasting over time will also emerge for the vaccine-induced responses.”
—by Sharon Reynolds


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## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Our schools have been failing us for years and years.


Yes they have. And now many millions more are waking up to the fact that many public school unions have zero interest in teaching. 

Any other profession that basically has refused to go back to work that leaves millions of their customers (students in this case) s out of luck?


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Our schools have been failing us for years and years.


Agree.  Is it any wonder that people do what Adolph Fauci, an unelected official and Big Pharma shill, tells them to do.


----------



## whatithink (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> To be fair as I discuss the schools, the numbers coming back show there have not been issues with the teachers as well.
> 
> So it is not a situation where the kids are OK, but the teachers are getting hammered. If there was an issue relating to the adults in the schools, the data and reports would show that.
> 
> ...


If you go back and look at all your school posts, of which there have been quite a few, you are consistent in hammering on about the risks, or lack therein to kids, and that's pretty much it. I agree on that, and am happy my kids are in school and am in favor of safely opening schools. 

I'm also aware of the risks to the adults that are required to make that happen, the teachers, custodians, maintenance people, cleaners, admins, cooks etc. You ignore them more or less all the time. That's my point. 

I'm not in a union, nor have I ever been. I obviously enjoy employment benefits I would not otherwise have due to unions over many decades, won by them, for me and everyone else, through a lot of hardships. I'm not going down that rabbit hole, mind. I do expect that the unions position is a little more nuanced than just not teaching kids in person, maybe around conditions, AC replacements, class sizes, etc. I know my sister is delighted to be in school, as are her colleagues, even knowing that they are now at a heightened risk.  



Grace T. said:


> Yet, we are forcing grocery store workers, restaurant workers, health care workers, meat packing plant employees, factor workers, television/news employees, Costco workers, bicycle store workers, Best Buy workers, gym employees, hairdressers, dental hygenists, liquor and marijuana store workers, and ice cream store workers to work.  Teachers, who they say have the important job of teaching kids, somehow take a pass.


I would have thought that your libertarian beliefs would have you advocating most vociferously against the fact that "we are forcing" various people to go to work (which "we" are not). Maybe if they all had unions, they wouldn't be. I'm pretty sure that in many or even most of those cases masks are mandatory, social distancing is mandated, capacity is reduced, temperatures are taken of each customer (my dentist certainly does) etc and so on to mitigate risk. Many or most of these are not possible with schools, but you know that.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 10, 2021)

*At a Glance*

The immune systems of more than 95% of people who recovered from COVID-19 had durable memories of the virus up to eight months after infection.
The results provide *hope* that people receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will develop *similar lasting immune memories after vaccination*.
Lasting immunity found after recovery from COVID-19

Hope???  Is that a form of Science??  "*similar" *lasting immune memories after vaccination?  Hmmm....The experiment continues.  Good grief people.  YOUR immune systems are much stronger than any vaccine.


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## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

Underdog and Dora can go on forever about how awful it is that schools are closed.  And they'll be mostly right.

But, for the last year, underdog has consistently opposed to any policies that might reduce the spread of covid.

The only exceptions are things, like border restrictions, that do not inconvenience him.

He simply refuses to accept the idea that he should have to make any sacrifices to help deal with the problem, and then mocks those who do.

As long as he is out there, bravely fighting to keep Arizona safe for the virus, underdog doesn't have much right to ask other people to accept the risk which he helped create.

We can take it as a given that underdog will make some emphatic, but non factual, reply about something being "zero".

-Usagi


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 10, 2021)

whatithink said:


> If you go back and look at all your school posts, of which there have been quite a few, you are consistent in hammering on about the risks, or lack therein to kids, and that's pretty much it. I agree on that, and am happy my kids are in school and am in favor of safely opening schools.
> 
> I'm also aware of the risks to the adults that are required to make that happen, the teachers, custodians, maintenance people, cleaners, admins, cooks etc. You ignore them more or less all the time. That's my point.
> 
> ...


Aren't teachers at "heightened risk" every flu season?


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## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> He simply refuses to accept the idea that he should have to make any sacrifices to help deal with the problem


Sacrifices? 

COVID killed my biz big guy. Totally killed my biz. So don't talk to me about sacrifices when I go from making money one day to having zero customers the next.

You sit there and tell people like me that we shouldn't be able to make a living while you sit at home and make your salary. 

You have no idea about sacrifices. Try losing your income and still making payments for schooling, housing, cars, etc. 

And that is your problem. 

You can do a math problem, but you cannot interpret data when looking at the real world. You have no concept of cost/benefit. It is likely why you are not working in the private sector...you cannot apply what you know and adjust based on the actual data. You keep running around WISHING the world would confirm to want it to do. 

So when you lose your biz and go from making good money to none, then you can talk about sacrifice. You advocate the closure of biz like mine and others while comfortably having a paycheck week to week. You have no concept of the fact that people need to work, to go out and do things to survive. We cannot just arbitrarily close this or that because some idiot like you deem that certain business and/or that families needs are NON ESSENTIAL.

We cannot sit here will idiots like you say kids shouldn't be in school. That somehow teachers can't go to work despite the data showing otherwise. Every other profession is putting on the shoes and going to work. 

Sacrifice. You have no idea.


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## whatithink (Mar 10, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Aren't teachers at "heightened risk" every flu season?


Yes, and there's the annual flu shot that my sister gets - not sure about her colleagues, never asked. She does get it (the flu) some years though, despite that. Teachers are also in the priority group to get the vaccine, and rightly so.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

whatithink said:


> If you go back and look at all your school posts, of which there have been quite a few, you are consistent in hammering on about the risks, or lack therein to kids, and that's pretty much it. I agree on that, and am happy my kids are in school and am in favor of safely opening schools.
> 
> I'm also aware of the risks to the adults that are required to make that happen, the teachers, custodians, maintenance people, cleaners, admins, cooks etc. You ignore them more or less all the time. That's my point.


There are little to any risks to adults teaching kids.

Go look at the data.

The overwhelming number of deaths occur to people OVER retirement age.

Those that are under retirement age that have died due to covid are overwhelmingly people with serious health issues.

So if you have serious health issues, you shouldn't be going out too much etc and that is true for any profession.

Outside of that, the math/data clearly shows there is really no risks.

About 10-11% off all deaths are from those 54 and younger. So that basically is the majority of our workforce/population.  Of those deaths under 54, these are not healthy people dying. In almost all cases these are people with serious health issues. Can you tell me a story about a healthy person dying? Yep. But that is the EXCEPTION. 

What does that mean? That means you and I and pretty much everyone can go to work and not WORRY about dying. 

That is what the data shows.  

You can pretend otherwise and be scared, but that means you have not paid attention to the data.

So no, I am not ignoring the adults as you say. I am paying attention to the data and realize these people are not at risk.


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## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Sacrifices?
> 
> COVID killed my biz big guy. Totally killed my biz. So don't talk to me about sacrifices when I go from making money one day to having zero customers the next.
> 
> ...


There is a difference between a sacrifice imposed upon you and a sacrifice you willingly accept.

The first you have in spades.  

The second, whether large or small, you consistently argue against.  

We’ve been round and round on cost/benefit.  But it’s never data based, because we can’t even agree to accept the CDC data on indoor dining.  that kind of limits our ability to assess the cost side of things.

-Usagi


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## whatithink (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> There are little to any risks to adults teaching kids.
> 
> Go look at the data.
> 
> ...


I think you're ignoring the point I was making and confusing me (scared!) with someone else. My kids are in school and playing soccer. I go to the gym and play soccer every week also - have done for the past year. I do mask up, social distance and take no unnecessary "risks".

I don't disagree with your stats, but took "issue" with your presenting a subset (kids not at risk) only, related to schools reopening repeatedly.

I've been a consistent advocate of schools being open and businesses being open - and of policies that support that, funds to ensure that happens if needed and community behavior to support that. 

Sorry to hear about your business. I posted a while back that the industry I work in has been devastated by this. I know the economic impact this had had on many people.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> There is a difference between a sacrifice imposed upon you and a sacrifice you willingly accept.


See here is the problem. 

You want to impose your views on people and as such make certain segments of our society sacrifice their biz/savings/etc. *In other words what you have been advocating has nothing to do with free will.* 

And unfortunately there are other idiots who have the political power to enforce what you like. 

There is nothing willingly accepted there. 

Further as data comes in over the past year, we see these gov policies are not effective. 

95% of kids in CA have not been in class this year. The opposite is true in places like FL and TX. And guess what? They have not have the massive problems you and others predicted would happen. 

In just 3-4 more weeks we will also likely see that TX who has lifted restrictions will not have a reversal of fortune. You where/are aghast at what they did...and what other states are now doing.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I think you're ignoring the point I was making and confusing me (scared!) with someone else. My kids are in school and playing soccer. I go to the gym and play soccer every week also - have done for the past year. I do mask up, social distance and take no unnecessary "risks".
> 
> I don't disagree with your stats, but took "issue" with your presenting a subset (kids not at risk) only, related to schools reopening repeatedly.
> 
> ...


Fair enough. If I misinterpreted your point(s) I apologize. The above post by you is clarification enough.


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## crush (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Sacrifices?
> 
> COVID killed my biz big guy. Totally killed my biz. So don't talk to me about sacrifices when I go from making money one day to having zero customers the next.
> 
> ...


I'm sorry Hound about loss of income.   I mean that 100%   I know that story all too well.  Assholes on here 12 months ago said the reason some feel the $$$ pain is because no rainy fund was saved.  I met you once and you seem like one who saved for a rainy day.  I'm sure you werent planning for 12 months of non stop rain and flooding, right?  I'm praying for you, the others like you, the kids and all the Seniors WHO had to sacrifice their last year of HS school because of liars and cheaters and asshole math folks who mislead the public on purpose.  Just wait Hound, Karma is coming and it is coming hard for many this time.  When kids are being abused and used by assholes, the day of reckoning is fast approaching.  Stay out of the way and let the pros do their job.  I can;t wait.  I was 100% brought to this planet for what is about to go down.  I've been waiting 54 years bro.  Game on for me.  Listen to what I have to say, it's an amazing story of survival and has 100% divine intervention.  I'm special and wonderfully made and protected I might add, at least so far.  I have so many threats and PMs by the same assholes.  You can judge them by their actions!!!


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## crush (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> There are little to any risks to adults teaching kids.
> 
> Go look at the data.
> 
> ...


hound, yesterday broke my heart.  I saw k-6th graders getting on a bus and all these kids had freaking mask on.  It was so sad.  12 months of lies and fear based propaganda is horrible on the kids.  No kid like the kids I saw have any worry of dying.


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## Grace T. (Mar 10, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Oh, Dora is good, but you have WordGirl's nonchalant humor and I could never imagine you saying, "Swiper, no swiping."


@dad4  completely misses the point of these Nicknames.  They need to be derogatory, which is why my son suggested Dora: "Swiper, no masking".  She winds up pretty horribly too when she's an adult.  But @dad4 of course picks out an obscure reference he likes that's kinda cool.  No.  For example, if we were looking to give a derogatory nickname to Husker, Caillou comes screaming to mind.  For @dad4 we would need to find someone who on the surface is absolutely brilliant, but twists the data to come to his own priors.  The closest I can come is "Morty", but that's not really derogatory.


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## watfly (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Sacrifices?
> 
> COVID killed my biz big guy. Totally killed my biz. So don't talk to me about sacrifices when I go from making money one day to having zero customers the next.
> 
> ...


Do you mind if I summarize this for you?  I'm pretty sure it called the inability to "walk in another persons shoes".  Its the ultimate in selfish mentality.

I'm surprised your as calm and composed as you are.  I'd be ripping heads off, or at least ripping out what's left of my hair.  I'm thankful for our employees who despite being exposed to the public on a daily basis have come to work with absolutely zero complaints and little hesitation.  With some basic common sense guidelines they've been able to do so safely.

My sincere condolences for what you're going through.  Tragic and never needed to happen, at least for this length of time.  Unfortunately, its what happens when we allow our politicians pick winners and losers.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 10, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I would have thought that your libertarian beliefs would have you advocating most vociferously against the fact that "we are forcing" various people to go to work (which "we" are not). Maybe if they all had unions, they wouldn't be. I'm pretty sure that in many or even most of those cases masks are mandatory, social distancing is mandated, capacity is reduced, temperatures are taken of each customer (my dentist certainly does) etc and so on to mitigate risk. Many or most of these are not possible with schools, but you know that.


I do.  While I've always been supportive of unions, my thinking on public employee unions has changed.  I think the government is too captured by them to make an arms length transaction and are generally a bad idea.  I think the schools issue has shown that.  But FYI, all those things you list are mandated in LA County in the schools, and they are planning hybrid only for next year because of the distancing requirements.


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## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> While I've always been supportive of unions, my thinking on public employee unions has changed.


Public unions simply lead to corruption. 

It is a system where the union(s) and the politicians negotiate and the people that pay are the taxpayers. Taxpayers have little to no voice in the matter. Politicians know where their money comes from and come up with "deals" with the unions that are not sound. 

Private sector unions. 

When unions and management negotiate, they all have a stake so to speak. If they do it wrong the biz is hurt and that affects both sides financial interests. In other words they have to be careful and prudent when they negotiate. They have a vested interest in having the biz thrive. 

On the public side...both sides are negotiating with someone else's money.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> @dad4  completely misses the point of these Nicknames.  They need to be derogatory, which is why my son suggested Dora: "Swiper, no masking".  She winds up pretty horribly too when she's an adult.  But @dad4 of course picks out an obscure reference he likes that's kinda cool.  No.  For example, if we were looking to give a derogatory nickname to Husker, Caillou comes screaming to mind.  For @dad4 we would need to find someone who on the surface is absolutely brilliant, but twists the data to come to his own priors.  The closest I can come is "Morty", but that's not really derogatory.


Caillou - Nothing lower than that.


----------



## watfly (Mar 10, 2021)

You know its interesting this whole "we're all in this together" (or "we're seeking bipartisan support") is a complete load of BS. Its actually "we're all in this together" as long as you believe what I believe.  Both sides of the ledger are guilty of this.  The best deals for everyone as a whole are those where both sides don't feel like they got everything they wanted.  This mentality that there has to be "winners or losers" is a "scorched earth policy" that only results in bad blood and retribution when the other side is now calling the shots.


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## watfly (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> On the public side...both sides are negotiating with someone else's money.


Best observation of the year so far.  I'm going to use that if you don't mind.


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## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> @dad4  completely misses the point of these Nicknames.  They need to be derogatory, which is why my son suggested Dora: "Swiper, no masking".  She winds up pretty horribly too when she's an adult.  But @dad4 of course picks out an obscure reference he likes that's kinda cool.  No.  For example, if we were looking to give a derogatory nickname to Husker, Caillou comes screaming to mind.  For @dad4 we would need to find someone who on the surface is absolutely brilliant, but twists the data to come to his own priors.  The closest I can come is "Morty", but that's not really derogatory.


I don't like insults, and think cartoon names would be fun.

I would have thought that was clear.

-Usagi


----------



## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> See here is the problem.
> 
> You want to impose your views on people and as such make certain segments of our society sacrifice their biz/savings/etc. *In other words what you have been advocating has nothing to do with free will.*
> 
> ...


And, when people like you decide to hold indoor gatherings that increase community spread and raise the risk for other people, do you ask their permission before increasing their risk?

Do they have free will in this, or just you?

-Usagi


----------



## watfly (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And, when people like you decide to hold indoor gatherings that increase community spread and raise the risk for other people, do you ask their permission before increasing their risk?
> 
> Do they have free will in this, or just you?
> 
> -Usagi


You assume risk that you can't control every time you leave your house, Covid or otherwise.  That's how real life works.  Plus since masking and social distancing is so effective according to you, you can still eliminate that risk in public.  Problem solved.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Do they have free will in this, or just you?


They do have free will. 

People like you prefer to hide at home and not go out.

Others who understand there is little to no risk do go out.  

See how that works?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't like insults, and think cartoon names would be fun.
> 
> I would have thought that was clear.
> 
> -Usagi


The best insults are the ones coated in a truth because they hurt.  If I were to call you a dumb dumb with no sense and no basis in reality it wouldn't hurt because it's easy to shrug off because it has no basis in reality.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> They do have free will.
> 
> People like you prefer to hide at home and not go out.
> 
> ...


Not what I asked.  I wasn’t asking whether people had the right to lock themselves in a room.  We agree that they do.

Since you dodged the question, we can assume your answer is no.  Underdog gets free will to open his restaurant and spread disease.  Other people do not get free will to live in a community with less disease.  Free will is only for underdog.

I knew you’d toss in a bogus zero claim somehow.  Let’s talk about “little risk”.

US deaths in the last 12 months are about 636,000 above normal.  So, for over half a million people, the risk was not “little”.  Around 19,500 of those excess deaths were in Arizona.  That’s a little more than one excess death per 400 residents.  

Cost/benefit?  There is your cost.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The best insults are the ones coated in a truth because they hurt.  If I were to call you a dumb dumb with no sense and no basis in reality it wouldn't hurt because it's easy to shrug off because it has no basis in reality.


The world has more than enough hurt in it right now.  We have that base covered.

There is no real need for the insults.  It might make me feel clever to say them, and I make that mistake, but it is a mistake.

-Usagi


----------



## watfly (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not what I asked.  I wasn’t asking whether people had the right to lock themselves in a room.  We agree that they do.
> 
> Since you dodged the question, we can assume your answer is no.  Underdog gets free will to open his restaurant and spread disease.  Other people do not get free will to live in a community with less disease.  Free will is only for underdog.
> 
> ...


Losing your income and all the implications that follow vs less than a 0.2% chance of dying.  I'm pretty sure those faced with the choice would take the risk of catching Covid overwhelmingly over losing their job.  Could you imagine what a country designed to eliminate 99.8% of death risk would look like?  It might look like the inside of Dad4's house.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not what I asked.  I wasn’t asking whether people had the right to lock themselves in a room.  We agree that they do.
> 
> Since you dodged the question, we can assume your answer is no.  Underdog gets free will to open his restaurant and spread disease.  Other people do not get free will to live in a community with less disease.  Free will is only for underdog.
> 
> ...


People have to work. What you are doing is deciding that people who have biz cannot do it. You sit safely inside your home getting a paycheck. So your ideas have no affect on you, your family, your liveliehood, your savings, your college savings etc. 

The people at risk are old individuals. I have always said target them, protect them. 

You think that is crazy and instead want perfectly healthy and safe people to not return to school, to have financial ruin, etc. 

As this thing lingers on, fewer and fewer people believe like you. More and more have come to the conclusion that what you propose is not working. 

This is a disease that we are going to have to live with. 

I think the final nail in your argument is when we watch what happens to TX over the next month.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The world has more than enough hurt in it right now.  We have that base covered.
> 
> There is no real need for the insults.  It might make me feel clever to say them, and I make that mistake, but it is a mistake.
> 
> -Usagi


There's not enough truth right now in the world, though.  If worrying about insults masks the truth, then I'm not interested because remember it was a lack of truth (with the Chinese) that started all this.


----------



## crush (Mar 10, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Losing your income and all the implications that follow vs less than a 0.2% chance of dying.  I'm pretty sure those faced with the choice would take the risk of catching Covid overwhelmingly over losing their job.  Could you imagine what a country designed to eliminate 99.8% of death risk would look like?  It might look like the inside of Dad4's house.


Per the CDC.

Infection Fatality Rate by Age Group.

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

The vast VAST majority of people have virtually no risk at all.

I know when I look at the above numbers I don't think wow...my kid is at risk. Or hey I am at risk.

When I hear someone testing positive for covid unless they are really old or have health problems I think, well they are out for a week or so. That is the reality.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> People have to work. What you are doing is deciding that people who have biz cannot do it. You sit safely inside your home getting a paycheck. So your ideas have no affect on you, your family, your liveliehood, your savings, your college savings etc.
> 
> The people at risk are old individuals. I have always said target them, protect them.
> 
> ...


Living with a contagious disease means changing your behavior to reflect the new reality.  So far, you display absolutely no willingness to do that.  You can’t even deal with the mask, which has almost no economic impact.

It’s possible to talk about cost/benefit, but only if we can agree on some facts.  One of those facts is that indoor restaurants and bars spread covid.  As long as you’re pretending otherwise, there is no possibility of a rational conversation on the topic of restaurant jobs.


I wondered when you’d realize you should drop FL from the argument and focus on TX.  There is too much risk that b.1.117 will drive up numbers in FL, especially since their vaccinations are lagging.   FL may end up the worst of the three states by May 01, but not because of policy differences.  

For now, Florida has a little over twice California’s average daily case rate.  Texas is at 1.6 times.  So, not looking so great.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Per the CDC.
> 
> Infection Fatality Rate by Age Group.
> 
> ...


You should realize that an IFR of 0.054 is not a small number.

It means one death per 19 infections.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Living with a contagious disease means changing your behavior to reflect the new reality.  So far, you display absolutely no willingness to do that.  You can’t even deal with the mask, which has almost no economic impact.
> 
> It’s possible to talk about cost/benefit, but only if we can agree on some facts.  One of those facts is that indoor restaurants and bars spread covid.  As long as you’re pretending otherwise, there is no possibility of a rational conversation on the topic of restaurant jobs.
> 
> ...


I am not dropping FL or TX. 

Cases per million amongst all 3 states are about identical and have been for quite some time. 

I am not changing my behavior to do something you think works...but the real world data shows an entirely different thing. 

I wear a mask going to the grocery store or into 711. I wear a mask by the front door to the restaurant or bar. As I walk in and sit down I take it off. I guess the science says it only hangs by the door. Why do I do it? Because that is the rule to get in these places. Not because I have any belief in their actual utility. 

I am not wearing it when I come over to a friends house, play golf, hike, ride a bike, sit outside, etc. 

Soon enough the silly mask rules will go away. I wonder if guys like you who think masks really work will be in history books...kind of like the medieval "experts" whose solution for various things was bloodletting.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You should realize that an IFR of 0.054 is not a small number.
> 
> It means one death per 19 infections.


You realize this is the group that has ALWAYS been the problem and from day 1 I said should be the focus. 

Instead you wanted EVERYONE to hide and shut down everything. For some reason you think/thought focusing on the at risk group was crazy and preferred shutting it all down. That isn't rational.


----------



## watfly (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> For now, Florida has a little over twice California’s average daily case rate.  Texas is at 1.6 times.  So, not looking so great.


For now, Florida *California* has a little over *nearly* twice California *Florida*’s average daily case *unemployment* rate. Texas *California* is at 1.6*4* times. *Texas*. So, not looking so great.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

I am going to post this image here. I also saved a copy so in a month when I post the latest numbers we can compare. Remember @dad4 thinks it is crazy that TX and others have ditched the mask mandates and said biz can open up 100%. So let us review this in a few weeks and see if there is any noticeable difference. We will pay close attention to cases per million and deaths per million.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I am going to post this image here. I also saved a copy so in a month when I post the latest numbers we can compare. Remember @dad4 thinks it is crazy that TX and others have ditched the mask mandates and said biz can open up 100%. So let us review this in a few weeks and see if there is any noticeable difference. We will pay close attention to cases per million and deaths per million.
> 
> View attachment 10357


You left out the great state of Arizona!

You’re on your own there.  You cannot get meaningful results by picking just 3 states. Worse, you’ve picked 3 states with 3 different dominant variants.  You are literally comparing three different diseases, with three different growth rates, and using the results to make a policy claim.

I want no part of data that bad. 

If you want to call this “we”, then “we” will accept the results when real statisticians run a county by county regression nationwide.


----------



## texanincali (Mar 10, 2021)

@dad4 

Honest question for you.  I appreciate the fact you hold true to your stance and you do so in a way that isn't detrimental to your own cause.  That said, are you advocating for masks once Covid is under control via vaccine or herd immunity?

I ask because, most mask advocates like to use masks and social distancing as the reason that flu has virtually been eliminated.  If masks are a big reason for that, and we can keep tens of thousands of people dying from flue each year, would you support that?


----------



## watfly (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You left out the great state of Arizona!
> 
> You’re on your own there.  You cannot get meaningful results by picking just 3 states. Worse, you’ve picked 3 states with 3 different dominant variants.  You are literally comparing three different diseases, with three different growth rates, and using the results to make a policy claim.
> 
> ...


I wouldn't concede now, you could get lucky if past history changes course.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

texanincali said:


> @dad4
> 
> Honest question for you.  I appreciate the fact you hold true to your stance and you do so in a way that isn't detrimental to your own cause.  That said, are you advocating for masks once Covid is under control via vaccine or herd immunity?
> 
> I ask because, most mask advocates like to use masks and social distancing as the reason that flu has virtually been eliminated.  If masks are a big reason for that, and we can keep tens of thousands of people dying from flue each year, would you support that?


I will wear my mask until we have a vaccine deployed that works against the known variants.  That could be this summer, if the existing vaccines work well enough against the new variants.  

If we have a variant showing exponential growth despite vaccinations, I believe we should keep our masks until a booster is available and deployed,

With respect to flu, mostly this has convinced me that I should get my flu shot every year.  I would also wear a mask, depending on what the data said about the flu shot and transmissibility.  (I do not know whether people with a flu shot are important as transmission vectors for the flu.)

Honestly, the masks are the easy part.  The painful parts are school and business closures.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re on your own there. You cannot get meaningful results by picking just 3 states. Worse, you’ve picked 3 states with 3 different dominant variants. You are literally comparing three different diseases, with three different growth rates, and using the results to make a policy claim.
> 
> I want no part of data that bad.


It isn't bad data.

If as you claim opening up 100% and no mask mandates is a very bad thing. Then we should expect to see the numbers diverge greatly from CA no?

And if TX/FL hold close to CA you will still say it doesn't prove anything?

Your claim for the past year has been biz closures and masks are VITAL to stopping the spread. So logically speaking since TX and FL have dumped those requirements, based on your claims should we not expect to see them start to head the other direction?


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You left out the great state of Arizona!
> 
> You’re on your own there.  You cannot get meaningful results by picking just 3 states. Worse, you’ve picked 3 states with 3 different dominant variants.  You are literally comparing three different diseases, with three different growth rates, and using the results to make a policy claim.
> 
> ...


I guess more to the point. If TX, FL and add in AZ don't start heading in the other direction, where does that leave your argument. 

Your claim has always been biz restrictions and masks prevent the spread. 

If we don't know see a rise in cases in these states, where exactly does that leave your argument? 

What will be the new goalpost?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> I wouldn't concede now, you could get lucky if past history changes course.


Oh, no real luck required.   b.1.117 is reasonably likely to make a mess of Florida’s April numbers.  It’s been growing exponentially there as vanilla covid declines.  If it continues like it has been, FL will see a large spike.

But, even if the data ends up showing my point, it’s still really bad data.   I’m not going to use a variant spike to make a policy claim.  It’s dishonest.


----------



## watfly (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Oh, no real luck required.   b.1.117 is reasonably likely to make a mess of Florida’s April numbers.  It’s been growing exponentially there as vanilla covid declines.  If it continues like it has been, FL will see a large spike.
> 
> But, even if the data ends up showing my point, it’s still really bad data.   I’m not going to use a variant spike to make a policy claim.  It’s dishonest.


Is the vaccine less effective against this variant?  I can't say I've paid much attention to the variants other than hearing anecdotally that they felt the vaccines would work OK.


----------



## whatithink (Mar 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Is the vaccine less effective against this variant?  I can't say I've paid much attention to the variants other than hearing anecdotally that they felt the vaccines would work OK.


I believe its a question of which vaccine and also which variant. From what I've read some are ok with some variants and others less so. All vaccines give you an "advantage", just like the flu shot does, but they are not bullet proof (like polio shots etc), as it mutates. Its hard to develop a vaccine for unknown new variants.


----------



## N00B (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Oh, no real luck required.   b.1.117 is reasonably likely to make a mess of Florida’s April numbers.  It’s been growing exponentially there as vanilla covid declines.  If it continues like it has been, FL will see a large spike.
> 
> But, even if the data ends up showing my point, it’s still really bad data.   I’m not going to use a variant spike to make a policy claim.  It’s dishonest.


I get the confirmation bias that would be implicit with justifying policy based on case numbers with regional variant differences... but wouldn’t you find it relevant if there is not divergence given the variants?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 10, 2021)

N00B said:


> I get the confirmation bias that would be implicit with justifying policy based on case numbers with regional variant differences... but wouldn’t you find it relevant if there is not divergence given the variants?


With n=3?  And 3 different levels of seroprevalence?

No.  Not really.  If CA has the worst growth, what does it prove?  All three states are changing their policies in multiple ways.  If CA has a spike, what caused it?  Youth soccer just started up.  We just opened indoor dining.  Schools are opening.   And, if CA numbers are good, what does that prove? The weather improved.  We have more vaccines distributed.  Outdoor sports are open, displacing indoor activities.  You can grind any axe you want to with those numbers.

CDC ran a full, county by county regression on this.  I’m not going to toss out a regression on 2000 time series data sets because someone wants to pretend to be a data guy with a single snapshot with n=3.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Oh, no real luck required.   b.1.117 is reasonably likely to make a mess of Florida’s April numbers.  It’s been growing exponentially there as vanilla covid declines.  If it continues like it has been, FL will see a large spike.
> Mai
> But, even if the data ends up showing my point, it’s still really bad data.   I’m not going to use a variant spike to make a policy claim.  It’s dishonest.


There's also something afoot though that can't be fully explained by the variants.  Remember in Europe in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe they are hitting new peaks.  In the US, states from Maine east of the Appalachians as far south as Virginia have plateaued while Florida is still falling though the rate of decline is still slowing.  The only way the variants can fully explain this is if the Northeast has a higher variant proportion than Florida and a new epidemic wave is spreading out of the northeast.  Since it started in New York that would make it ground zero in the new variant wave.  The other thing to note is that in New York and Massachusetts the cases have been plateaued since the end of January at roughly the same levels, neither accelerating nor decelerating.  Maybe the vaccine is acting is a counter to the accelerator or maybe it's the weather.   New York, though is out performing Florida right now in vaccination, and neighboring Georgia ranks dead last.....if it was the vaccination alone you'd expect to see irregular pockets of some places doing worse than others than this regional pattern that seems to be spreading out now touching as far south as Viriginia.


----------



## N00B (Mar 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> With n=3?  And 3 different levels of seroprevalence?
> 
> No.  Not really.  If CA has the worst growth, what does it prove?  All three states are changing their policies in multiple ways.  If CA has a spike, what caused it?  Youth soccer just started up.  We just opened indoor dining.  Schools are opening.   And, if CA numbers are good, what does that prove? The weather improved.  We have more vaccines distributed.  Outdoor sports are open, displacing indoor activities.  You can grind any axe you want to with those numbers.
> 
> CDC ran a full, county by county regression on this.  I’m not going to toss out a regression on 2000 time series data sets because someone wants to pretend to be a data guy with a single snapshot with n=3.


I was thinking first of the comparison of TX to FL going forward.  Open for business, high previous exposure rates and FL with a growing variant % of cases.  If there is no divergence there, I think that tells us something (or at least implies something).

If CA then follows similar trends, with policy differences and a variant of their own, that would imply something significant as well.

It wouldn’t be proof of a point, but it could isolate some variables as relevant or not.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There's also something afoot though that can't be fully explained by the variants.  Remember in Europe in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe they are hitting new peaks.  In the US, states from Maine east of the Appalachians as far south as Virginia have plateaued while Florida is still falling though the rate of decline is still slowing.  The only way the variants can fully explain this is if the Northeast has a higher variant proportion than Florida and a new epidemic wave is spreading out of the northeast.  Since it started in New York that would make it ground zero in the new variant wave.  The other thing to note is that in New York and Massachusetts the cases have been plateaued since the end of January at roughly the same levels, neither accelerating nor decelerating.  Maybe the vaccine is acting is a counter to the accelerator or maybe it's the weather.   New York, though is out performing Florida right now in vaccination, and neighboring Georgia ranks dead last.....if it was the vaccination alone you'd expect to see irregular pockets of some places doing worse than others than this regional pattern that seems to be spreading out now touching as far south as Viriginia.


I further point out that this is a similar pattern to what we saw last year around the same time, with New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts being ground zero for the initial spring wave that started all this.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 10, 2021)

I think this is bad news @Desert Hound. I am hearing rumors that if Reach 11 stays closed, ECNL will be moving the Showcase to Texas. Any thoughts on what will happen?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I wondered when you’d realize you should drop FL from the argument and focus on TX.  There is too much risk that b.1.117 will drive up numbers in FL, especially since their vaccinations are lagging.   FL may end up the worst of the three states by May 01, but not because of policy differences.
> 
> For now, Florida has a little over twice California’s average daily case rate.  Texas is at 1.6 times.  So, not looking so great.


NY Times indicating there's no sign of any increase in cases in FL where B.1.1.7 is widespread.


But — here’s the second idea — the overall evidence on the variants has been more encouraging so far than many people expected. The vaccines are virtually eliminating hospitalizations and death in people who contract a variant. Reinfection does not seem to be widespread. And even if the variants are more contagious, they have not caused the kind of surges that seemed possible a couple of weeks ago.​

In Florida, where B.1.1.7 has spread widely, “there’s no sign of any increase in cases,” Dr. Eric Topol of Scripps Research wrote.​


----------



## crush (Mar 11, 2021)

Anything new guys?  This is getting old and same old same old.  Let's talk about something different today.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 11, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I think this is bad news @Desert Hound. I am hearing rumors that if Reach 11 stays closed, ECNL will be moving the Showcase to Texas. Any thoughts on what will happen?


I haven't heard anything one way or the other to be honest.


----------



## happy9 (Mar 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I haven't heard anything one way or the other to be honest.


I know nothing of what ECNL is doing/trying to do...City of Phoenix is not prioritizing loosening their restrictions on having any events at their facilities. 

I haven't heard rumor that they are considering opening anytime soon.  It's beyond me why they would continue to keep all of their facilities closed, given the current environment.  Impacts are being felt by clubs who use their facilities throughout the city's footprint in the valley.

Hopefully their are conversations being had and the ECNL spring event happens - opens the door for local clubs to regain access.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 11, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> NY Times indicating there's no sign of any increase in cases in FL where B.1.1.7 is widespread.
> 
> 
> But — here’s the second idea — the overall evidence on the variants has been more encouraging so far than many people expected. The vaccines are virtually eliminating hospitalizations and death in people who contract a variant. Reinfection does not seem to be widespread. And even if the variants are more contagious, they have not caused the kind of surges that seemed possible a couple of weeks ago.​
> ...


Why would you expect to see a change to overall cases _now_?

If b.1.1.7 is small, but growing exponentially, you would not expect to see overall case growth until the growth in b.1.1.7 exceeds the decline in normal cases.  Exceeds in absolute value, not in proportionate rates.

The second paragraph is more promising.  At least for the UK variant, both vaccines and traditional immunity appear to work.  That puts a pretty short time limit on how long the UK variant has to do damage.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 11, 2021)

A little late for LA County to be doing this.....









						Kroger To Close 3 Stores In Los Angeles In Response To Approval Of 'Hero Pay' Mandate
					

Two Ralphs stores -- at 9616 West Pico Blvd. and 3300 West Slauson Ave. – and a Food 4 Less at 5420 W. Sunset Blvd. will be shut down on May 15, according to Kroger.




					losangeles.cbslocal.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why would you expect to see a change to overall cases _now_?
> 
> If b.1.1.7 is small, but growing exponentially, you would not expect to see overall case growth until the growth in b.1.1.7 exceeds the decline in normal cases.  Exceeds in absolute value, not in proportionate rates.
> 
> The second paragraph is more promising.  At least for the UK variant, both vaccines and traditional immunity appear to work.  That puts a pretty short time limit on how long the UK variant has to do damage.


Yo, Jimbo (your new nickname - both words - I'll see about getting you a bowling shirt), do you have more qualifications than Dr. Eric Topol? Maybe this is a case of the reporter not understanding what was said. I don't really want to argue, I have a significant other for that. As you say, we'll see in a few weeks. Let's hope.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 11, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Yo, Jimbo (your new nickname - both words - I'll see about getting you a bowling shirt), do you have more qualifications than Dr. Eric Topol? Maybe this is a case of the reporter not understanding what was said. I don't really want to argue, I have a significant other for that. As you say, we'll see in a few weeks. Let's hope.


I try to be clear that I am a math guy with utterly no qualifications on this.

It does make me uncomfortable when I end up disagreeing with actual experts.   They know many things I don't.

Not so much the Topol case: I agree with him that so far you can't see any spike.  And he wasn't quite saying whether a FL spike was in the future or not.

But I do keep wondering what Osterholm sees that I am missing.   I don't get the numbers behind his hurricane prediction.  

- Jimbo

I also have no qualifications for bowling.  But I am probably qualified to wear a shirt.


----------



## crush (Mar 12, 2021)




----------



## crush (Mar 12, 2021)

How many of you eat out like this?  My pal owns a killer Thai place and his customers who want to eat out have to eat in the freaking parking lot.  Look at this couple........


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 12, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10372


I saw a meme that said the same thing except instead of a mask he was wearing a maga hat.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 12, 2021)

Pretty much everywhere in Europe including Ireland and Spain now plateaued.  Meanwhile Germany coming under criticism despite the early praise.










						What's gone wrong with Germany's COVID management? – DW – 03/12/2021
					

A year ago, Germany was effusively praised for its coronavirus response. Nobody would think to do that now. If anything, the international view today is a mixture of astonishment and schadenfreude.




					www.dw.com


----------



## dad4 (Mar 12, 2021)

The “take me somewhere expensive“ meme made me think of the price of an overnight ICU stay.

There are problems worse than the indignity of eating your fancy dinner outside.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 12, 2021)

Interesting study.  There's an interesting section there too about the impact in Ireland of dining restrictions.









						RETRACTED ARTICLE: Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study - Scientific Reports
					

A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns. Our objective was to assess the association between...




					www.nature.com


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 12, 2021)

Opinion | The Lockdowns Weren’t Worth It
					

There’s a reason no government has done a cost-benefit analysis: The policy would surely fail.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## dad4 (Mar 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Opinion | The Lockdowns Weren’t Worth It
> 
> 
> There’s a reason no government has done a cost-benefit analysis: The policy would surely fail.
> ...


Your previous link was better.

The WSJ editorial is from a philosophy student with no particular qualifications.  He starts off using an anti-lockdown argument to justify ending the Texas mask mandate.  He never explains why a mask mandate qualifies as a lockdown.  It just gets worse from there.  

Eventually he notes that the cases graph is not exponential up through herd immunity.  Of course, no one expected it to be an exponential that ends in a hard cutoff.  People expected a logistic curve: growing exponential early, and declining exponential late.  Total cases look like a sigmoid.

A phil student who doesn’t hang out in biostats classes wouldn’t know this.  This is why phil students who avoid biostats classes should also avoid writing epidemiology editorials.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 12, 2021)

Olympic host Japan will not take part in China vaccine offer
					

TOKYO (AP) — Japan will not take part in China's offer — accepted by the International Olympic Committee — to provide vaccines for “participants" in the postponed Tokyo Games and next year's Beijing Winter Games...




					apnews.com
				












						IOC reveals China has offered vaccines to Tokyo and Beijing Olympic athletes
					

The IOC president, Thomas Bach, says the Chinese Olympic Committee has offered vaccine doses for the Winter and Summer Games




					www.theguardian.com
				




The Chinese vaccine hasn't been approved by most western governments so don't know why any would give it to their athletes but the third world may not have much of a choice (though a few central and eastern European governments are getting panicked by the EU response and are accepting the Sputnik vaccine).  Given the vaccination situation in the EU and third world, not sure how Japan could open  up the games to foreign non-official travelers at this point.


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your previous link was better.
> 
> The WSJ editorial is from a philosophy student with no particular qualifications.  He starts off using an anti-lockdown argument to justify ending the Texas mask mandate.  He never explains why a mask mandate qualifies as a lockdown.  It just gets worse from there.
> 
> ...


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 14, 2021)

Eu update. Hard hit Sweden and the Czech Republic join spain and Belgium in having declining cases. Pretty much everywhere else in Europe (with the exception of anomalies Portugal and Ireland which remain flat) have rising cases at this point.  Norway Finland Estonia and Hungary which had to this point been spared the worst of the epidemic are hitting all time peaks.  

I read an interesting conspiracy theory about why the triangle from Bangladesh to Singapore to China is, despite widely different intervention policies, doing better than the rest of the world: they all have wet markets where exotic animals such as bats are eaten. Don’t know if it’s true or not but it’s pretty clear this triangle hasn’t been as hard hit as the rest of the world including Japan.


----------



## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Eu update. Hard hit Sweden and the Czech Republic join spain and Belgium in having declining cases. Pretty much everywhere else in Europe (with the exception of anomalies Portugal and Ireland which remain flat) have rising cases at this point.  Norway Finland Estonia and Hungary which had to this point been spared the worst of the epidemic are hitting all time peaks.
> 
> *I read an interesting conspiracy theory *about why the triangle from Bangladesh to Singapore to China is, despite widely different intervention policies, doing better than the rest of the world: they all have wet markets where exotic animals such as bats are eaten. Don’t know if it’s true or not but it’s pretty clear this triangle hasn’t been as hard hit as the rest of the world including Japan.


I know so much Grace, no one believes me.


----------



## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

The mask is and soon, the vaccine will be the most divisive BS ever put on Americans.  I already see the politics of "yes" for mask and bat vaccine and "no."  This is going to get a lot worse before people stop being scared of a man made fear bomb.  My buddy says what they really want are folks guns.  I have none and never will have a gun.  I shoot with my mouth only   God, please come help us with an intervention.  I see no other way out of this.


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## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

@kickingandscreaming and anyone else.  If you feel the desire to inject vaccine, I pray for you and those who follow your lead.  Were all leaders to influence.  Stay safe everyone


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 14, 2021)

So what we're doing by giving imperfect vaccines is to encourage the emergence of vaccine resistant viruses. What will the response be? We need another vaccine, let's make another vaccine, let's make another vaccine, let's make another vaccine. And we saw this with flu, so now people are being given four different flu vaccines every year, because every time they were seeing the emergence of vaccine elusive or resistant strains. And that is in the case of coronavirus a real issue, because I can see as it, it's like cat and mouse. It's a game of cat and mouse, and the question is who is the cat and who the mouse in that situation?-- Andy Wakefield


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## Bruddah IZ (Mar 14, 2021)

This is beyond chilling. We're playing God, and then in a hubris or an arrogance, saying we don't need any testing. We're smart enough to know how this is going to come out. As you've cited, you can't put the genie back in the bottle. It's not like if they made a mistake, oh, here's the antidote if we're wrong. There is none. It's something that can't be reversed. Is there any danger that if one person gets one of these types of these vaccines that you've just described, can they shed or can they spread it to other people, or is the danger and the risk just within themselves? (Pat Gentempo)

The first type, the RNA type of vaccine, no, I don't think so. It's not a live virus, therefore it doesn't reproduce and get passed out in saliva or respiratory secretions, for example. But if the adenovirus construct vaccine encountered another adenovirus naturally that then enabled it to reproduce, then the answer is yes. If it then restored its ability to reproduce in the human host, then you have a situation where, yes, it may well be shed and spread horizontally to other people in the community. (Andy Wakefield)


----------



## crush (Mar 14, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Eu update. Hard hit Sweden and the Czech Republic join spain and Belgium in having declining cases. Pretty much everywhere else in Europe (with the exception of anomalies Portugal and Ireland which remain flat) have rising cases at this point.  Norway Finland Estonia and Hungary which had to this point been spared the worst of the epidemic are hitting all time peaks.
> 
> I read an interesting conspiracy theory about why the triangle from Bangladesh to Singapore to China is, despite widely different intervention policies, doing better than the rest of the world: they all have wet markets where exotic animals such as bats are eaten. Don’t know if it’s true or not but it’s pretty clear this triangle hasn’t been as hard hit as the rest of the world including Japan.


 

The other thing I wanted to talk about was the emergence of new strains of the coronavirus that are dissimilar in their behavior and their characteristics to the parent strain that really dominated the first 12 months of this epidemic, because I think this is an extremely important thing that we've overlooked. It really comes down to evolutionary biology. What we're seeing in the news now is new coronavirus in the UK, more contagious, more infectious.

UK, more contagious, more infectious than the original strain. Then it emerges in South Africa and emerges in Colorado in California, and suddenly it's everywhere. This new strain that appears have a greater propensity to spread, it's more contagious, it's more transmissible, has emerged as a new strain. And why would that happen? In terms of evolutionary biology, RNA viruses mutate all the time. They're much more labeled than DNA viruses like herpesviruses, for example, because they don't have what's called a proofreading function or an effective proofreading function of the gene when it's replicating. And so we see mutations emerge with RNA viruses all the time, but for the vast majority, they confer no advantage and therefore they die out. And the parent strain, the dominant strain remains just that dominant.

Now this infection has not behaved like a typical respiratory infection. What will usually happen with a respiratory infection like this, as we see it's margin, it's a rapid increase, a peak, and a decline and it disappears. But that hasn't happened, and what we've seen instead is a flattening of the curve, a protracted infection, and now the emergence of new strains. And now was this the hand of man? And the answer is largely yes, even though masking and social distancing and lockdown are totally imperfect in terms of controlling the infection and it's spread, they nonetheless will have modified it. And in modifying it, in making it more difficult for the virus to spread, what that does is put a genetic selection pressure on the virus. In other words, amongst those mutations, if there are mutations that are more easily spread, then they will have a survival advantage in circumstances where man is trying to prevent the spread.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 14, 2021)

So what you'll do is encourage by virtue of lockdown, masking and social distancing, you will encourage the emergence of new strains with the survival advantage of being more transmissible. They will survive, and so what we've done through our imperfect interventions have created, I believe these new strains which are highly transmissible. Now that doesn't necessarily make them more dangerous, but they are more easily spread. And I believe that we've done that. And I think the case for allowing this virus just to emerge, go up, pick, go down and disappear while protecting those at highest risk was obvious from the very beginning. And we've said this from the very beginning, let it happen and get rid of it. But we haven't done that. We interfered, we put a genetic selection pressure on the virus, and now we have strains which are more transmissible.


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## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

And to add insult to injury, this new strain is hopping on the third wave of the second set of waves out of New Zealand.  These waves of the new virus strain are not like other waves in the past.  These are waves that will sneak up on you as you lay on da beach with no mask on because you took your eyes off the waves.


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## Grace T. (Mar 14, 2021)

crush said:


> @kickingandscreaming and anyone else.  If you feel the desire to inject vaccine, I pray for you and those who follow your lead.  Were all leaders to influence.  Stay safe everyone
> 
> 
> View attachment 10384


5&6 on this list are a little cheeky. While none of the vaccines are 100% effective the research that’s coming out shows that they are substantially effective in preventing covid and preventing onward transmission so that’s just misleading.  10 at the current time is a purely theorectical concern but women have gotten pregnant after taking mRNA vaccines. 8 is true...if you don’t like gmos don’t know why you’d take an mRNA vaccine but the bigger question then is why don’t you like gmos.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 14, 2021)

crush said:


> @kickingandscreaming and anyone else.  If you feel the desire to inject vaccine, I pray for you and those who follow your lead.  Were all leaders to influence.  Stay safe everyone
> 
> 
> View attachment 10384











						Israel eases restrictions following vaccine success
					

Shops, libraries and museums are now open to the public, following easing of Covid rules.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 14, 2021)

crush said:


> @kickingandscreaming and anyone else.  If you feel the desire to inject vaccine, I pray for you and those who follow your lead.  Were all leaders to influence.  Stay safe everyone
> 
> 
> View attachment 10384


Thanks, @crush. I know you sincerely care about my health despite our differing viewpoints. Know I feel the same way about the health of you and your family.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Eu update. Hard hit Sweden and the Czech Republic join spain and Belgium in having declining cases. Pretty much everywhere else in Europe (with the exception of anomalies Portugal and Ireland which remain flat) have rising cases at this point.  Norway Finland Estonia and Hungary which had to this point been spared the worst of the epidemic are hitting all time peaks.
> 
> I read an interesting conspiracy theory about why the triangle from Bangladesh to Singapore to China is, despite widely different intervention policies, doing better than the rest of the world: they all have wet markets where exotic animals such as bats are eaten. Don’t know if it’s true or not but it’s pretty clear this triangle hasn’t been as hard hit as the rest of the world including Japan.


Take a look at the variant numbers for b.1.1.7 in EU states.  It's over 70% in many places.

I think they are experiencing now what LA saw in December:  A high transmission variant that overwhelms the policies which halfway worked for vanilla covid.

Hope the weather helps FL turn out better.

Jimbo


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## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 5&6 on this list are a little cheeky. While none of the vaccines are 100% effective the research that’s coming out shows that they are substantially effective in preventing covid and preventing onward transmission so that’s just misleading.  10 at the current time is a purely theorectical concern but women have gotten pregnant after taking mRNA vaccines. 8 is true...if you don’t like gmos don’t know why you’d take an mRNA vaccine but the bigger question then is why don’t you like gmos.


Pro Vaccine is all about choice.  Let's skip to GMOS.  I dont like them because my wife say's their bad.  I asked her why and this from her.
"Dear Grace, GMO's are genetically modified and because of that, our body does not recognize it as food.  It's better to eat organic food that is bio available and immediately recognized and useful to create the building blocks our bodies need to repair, restore, and replenish for renewed vitality & longevity.  My husband has lost over 30 lbs in the last 12 months.  I'm so proud of him for finally lessoning to me." Queen Bee wifey


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## kickingandscreaming (Mar 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
> 
> ***
> 
> ...


Well, here we are. Six weeks ago Osterholm stated that we were 6-14 weeks away from this.

“You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher —  450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”

It's interesting that 6 weeks ago he described the situation as "70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze". To revisit, 6 weeks ago vs. today looks like this.

7-day averages
Cases: 6 weeks ago, 146K   Now, 55K
--- 62% drop

Hospitalizations: 6 weeks ago, 105K  Now, 44K
--- 58% drop

Deaths: 6 weeks ago, 3160   Now, 1419
--- 55% drop

It's not all good news. We have leveled off considerably, but are still trending down. More good news is that vaccinations are accelerating. We will likely see a few down days due to the storm, but we are showing that we have the capacity to handle more vaccines per day. For the past week, 3% more got their first shot. If J&J comes through as scheduled, we will likely be vaccinated at a rate of around 1% of the population per day in April. Also, the rate at which individuals are fully vaccinated will go up with the J&J shot.


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## Grace T. (Mar 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Take a look at the variant numbers for b.1.1.7 in EU states.  It's over 70% in many places.
> 
> I think they are experiencing now what LA saw in December:  A high transmission variant that overwhelms the policies which halfway worked for vanilla covid.
> 
> ...


The implications of this is, though, if you are going to have a vaccine delay like in the eu, you would have been better off blowing out your cases earlier like spain, north Italy Belgium or Sweden than be Germany the Czech Republic or the uk, with high numbers and a population exhausted with lockdowns

Monday quarterbacking but the best strategy besides blow out your cases is go big with vaccines and for that both trump and fauci deserve some credit.


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## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Well, here we are. Six weeks ago Osterholm stated that we were 6-14 weeks away from this.
> 
> “You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher —  450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”
> 
> ...


You & Grace are classic.  I have some news for you on April 1st.  I do have RQ, which means you do not have to answer.  Are both of you in the best health ever in your life?  Physical, mental and just pure organic health and not eat any meat?  My wife and I live this way and are super healthy.  That should give us a pass, right?


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## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

Let's be real folks.  Go deep and I mean real deep inside, and see what you really see.  Do you see what I see?


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## kickingandscreaming (Mar 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Take a look at the variant numbers for b.1.1.7 in EU states.  It's over 70% in many places.
> 
> I think they are experiencing now what LA saw in December:  A high transmission variant that overwhelms the policies which halfway worked for vanilla covid.
> 
> ...


I have to think FL has a significantly higher seroprevalence than the EU had when they "blew up" with cases, and they are definitely much further along on the vaccine than the EU. Maybe the weather will help as well.


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## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

Boucher's hate me too now but I must share.  I'm not against a little red meat, little fish here and there but you better know where your fish or prime rib is coming from.  Also, do they torture and beat the shit out of the animals most of their life?  Basically, your eating meat from an animal that was abused and shot with so much homones you have no clue what the heck your eating these days.  Meat lovers?  Yikes!!!  I also heard Mr Gates bought up the rest of America's farm land.  Grace and Kicking, Bill's Burgers will have new meaning in the future.  Be careful you guys, I really do love you.


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## kickingandscreaming (Mar 14, 2021)

crush said:


> You & Grace are classic.  I have some news for you on April 1st.  I do have RQ, which means you do not have to answer.  Are both of you in the best health ever in your life?  Physical, mental and just pure organic health and not eat any meat?  My wife and I live this way and are super healthy.  That should give us a pass, right?


Yes, death from COVID is definitely correlated to other health problems.

I'm in decent shape. I eat a lot of organic food and I don't eat meat except for fish, chicken, steak, and pork. Ok, I eat pretty much any meat, just not much of it - mostly chicken. No way am I giving up pork, and if I'm in Texas, I'm having some brisket. Fred's steak is nice every 2-3 months.


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## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Yes, death from COVID is definitely correlated to other health problems.
> 
> I'm in decent shape. I eat a lot of organic food and I don't eat meat except for fish, chicken, steak, and pork. Ok, I eat pretty much any meat, just not much of it - mostly chicken. No way am I giving up pork, and if I'm in Texas, I'm having some brisket. Fred's steak is nice every 2-3 months.


Look bro, I was meat eater all my life and made fun of wife for years.  When my dd was playing for Natty in 2017 in Frisco, I ate so much steak that week.  In fact, it's all I eat come to think about it.  I was starting to eat really bad right around this time.  Life was hard that's all I can say.  My wife was already eating like a rabbit and my food pantry proved it.  She tried and I "acted" like I was behind non gmo and organic and their higher prices and no gluten.  I just was gone on the road a lot and ate out at fast food.  I had a nice per diem so dinner was steak and chicken or pizza.  I was 218 and climbing.  My drivers license made me look 230.  Today, I'm 187.  It's a slow process.  I gave it all up right before the demic.  My wife had wind of this scam a year or so before in early 2019 and warned me of their plan.  When I saw the truth, I kneeled before my wife and told her I was wrong and to please tell me what I should do.  Guess what the first thing she told me was and guess what the only thing she told me to do was?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 14, 2021)

crush said:


> Look bro, I was meat eater all my life and made fun of wife for years.  When my dd was playing for Natty in 2017 in Frisco, I ate so much steak that week.  In fact, it's all I eat come to think about it.  I was starting to eat really bad right around this time.  Life was hard that's all I can say.  My wife was already eating like a rabbit and my food pantry proved it.  She tried and I "acted" like I was behind non gmo and organic and their higher prices and no gluten.  I just was gone on the road a lot and ate out at fast food.  I had a nice per diem so dinner was steak and chicken or pizza.  I was 218 and climbing.  My drivers license made me look 230.  Today, I'm 187.  It's a slow process.  I gave it all up right before the demic.  My wife had wind of this scam a year or so before in early 2019 and warned me of their plan.  When I saw the truth, I kneeled before my wife and told her I was wrong and to please tell me what I should do.  Guess what the first thing she told me was and guess what the only thing she told me to do was?


Get up off your knees?


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## crush (Mar 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Get up off your knees?


Never bro.  She is my Eternal Flame and I'm always on my knees with her.  I love her so much, you have no idea.


----------



## crush (Mar 15, 2021)




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## crush (Mar 15, 2021)




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## crush (Mar 15, 2021)

Paging all my educated and smart parents on here.  I know so many of you hold multiple degrees and many of you work in education and teach our kids math & science.  I also know so many of you think I'm a moron, idiot and dam fool.  So please smart ones, answer the following Q's for me and I will leave for good.  To all my pro mask folks who mad dog me for not wearing one all the time over my nose, help me understand what is the truth. Since we all breath the same air, where are all the dead dogs & cats?  Oh where, oh where are all the dead animals?  Where are all the dead birds? Where oh where are all the dead homeless people who dont wear a mask?  In fact, where are all the dead people who never wear a mask?  
More Q's from dumb crush. Why is that when I walk into my pals Thai place that me and the wife have to wear a mask walking in but we can take mask off after we sit down?  Does the Rona have respect when you sit down to eat and it goes away?  Why is it you can sit in a full plane with 100s of folks but can't sit inside a church for an hour and a half?  Why can Hound and I sit at a bar in AZ at 9:55pm for a drink but at 10:05pm, we have to leave? Rona comes out after 10:05pm?  So many questions in my mind.  Oh, and where did the flu go this year?


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## crush (Mar 15, 2021)

More news from Dr F

Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday he wishes former President Donald Trump would use his popularity among Republicans to persuade his* followers *to get the COVID-19 vaccine.
Fauci said it would be a *“game changer” *for the country’s *vaccine efforts if the former president used his “incredible influence” among Republicans.*

“If he came out and said, *‘Go and get vaccinated*. It’s really *important for your health*, the *health of your family and the health of the country,’* it seems absolutely inevitable that the vast majority of people who are his close* followers would listen to him,” Fauci told “Fox News Sunday.”*

“What is the *problem here?* This is a vaccine that is going to be lifesaving for millions of people,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” He added: “I mean, I just can’t comprehend what the reason for that is when you have a vaccine that’s* 94-95% effective* and it is very safe. I just don’t get it.”

Dr F is way off and these comments are just like what my old pals said back in 2016.  First off, I dont follow no one except myself and my God. Second, 94% effective is not good, MOO.  I'm not sick, i'm super healthy and no risk of death by Rona.  So why risk 5% of problem from vaccine like death, ED and other issues with reproduction organs? This guy keeps calling people like me T's followers who dont want to inject poison in my arm for obvious reasons, against abortion and want kids to be free.  It is my God given right to say no to the man made bat virus that we know little of.  What a crock!!!


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## crush (Mar 15, 2021)

more from Chuck's interview on Sunday with Dr F.......

“I know there’s a lot of folks who think that due to *climate change *and due to the *globalization* in general, it’s inevitable, we’re going to *deal with more and more viruses like this,*” Todd declared.  ((you see folks, it will NEVER end))

Fauci responded “Let’s take *global* to begin with. We have to have a better *global* health security network of interconnectivity, of communication, of transparency.”

“So that we are talking to each other all the time and know what’s going on. We also have to have a continued* investment in the science,*” he said, adding “remain* global* in our interactions. As I have said so many times, a *global pandemic requires a global response.”*


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## crush (Mar 15, 2021)

The last time I was sick was Jan 20th, 2020.  I was over weight and depressed as well and i just got back from visiting Seattle and Pikes Place and I toured Amazon.  At around the same time, the Rona had taken the first wave out of the China Sea and found another wave to hop on during a Pacific Swell that took the Rona up the Pacific Northwest Coast and right to Pikes, where I happen to be food tasting everything i could see with my eyes.  I got coffee at original Starbucks as well.  So tasty.  I told everyone my plane coming home was a sick plane of the Rona i believe or one of the other 18 flu strains we got.  I have not been sick since my trip to the PNW.


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## Grace T. (Mar 15, 2021)

Wow I get there is some selection bias in taking the test but 45% in LA County.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371537984600862725


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## crush (Mar 15, 2021)

Light Bulb Question.  If there was contraceptive vaccine and after taking the shot the doc said you still need to wear a condom to perform, would that make any sense?


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## Hüsker Dü (Mar 15, 2021)

A LOT of crybabying and whining going on in this thread. Get over yourselves!


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## crush (Mar 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> A LOT of crybabying and whining going on in this thread. Get over yourselves!


Answer the Q's Frances....lol.  How's it going Husker?  Congrats on being voted the nicest out of all the other mean avatars from your peers.  Are you Espola too?


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## watfly (Mar 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> A LOT of crybabying and whining going on in this thread. Get over yourselves!


You had 4 years, at least give us a few months.

Not sure about the whole Jenny McCarthy act though.


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## kickingandscreaming (Mar 15, 2021)

crush said:


> Never bro.  She is my Eternal Flame and I'm always on my knees with her.  I love her so much, you have no idea.


Just so you know, it was a (failed) joke - my guess at your wife's answer to your question to me. Your last sentence was, "Guess what the first thing she told me was and guess what the only thing she told me to do was?"


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## crush (Mar 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Just so you know, it was a (failed) joke - my guess at your wife's answer to your question to me. Your last sentence was, "Guess what the first thing she told me was and guess what the only thing she told me to do was?"


Hahahahha.  I get the joke bro, hehehehehehehe.  Ok, so she told me that she forgives me and then told me to stop eating meat, dairy, gmo, gluten and all non organic processed foods.  No fake cheese either.......lol.


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## Grace T. (Mar 15, 2021)

crush said:


> Light Bulb Question.  If there was contraceptive vaccine and after taking the shot the doc said you still need to wear a condom to perform, would that make any sense?


This isn't really a good analogy.  There isn't a contraceptive vaccine but there is a birth control pill and it is not 100% effective.  They do advise if you really really need to avoid getting pregnant to use both.  Not to mention the issue of diseases.

On the other side, the condom in this case has holes through which some genetic material can pass, and some of these condoms are home made, some of them no more than a piece of tissue you found in the trash or made out of an old turtleneck.


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## crush (Mar 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This isn't really a good analogy.  There isn't a contraceptive vaccine but there is a birth control pill and it is not 100% effective.  They do advise if you really really need to avoid getting pregnant to use both.  Not to mention the issue of diseases.
> 
> On the other side, the condom in this case has holes through which some genetic material can pass, and some of these condoms are home made, some of them no more than a piece of tissue you found in the trash or made out of an old turtleneck.


Grace, this was a light bulb Q and far out of this world kind of idea, not analogy.  The answer to the point of the topic is, "no, i would not shoot unknown virus that 5% lose all function of their sexual desires if they react bad.  Does that make sense?  No one wants to wear a condom married so wife does not get pregnant.  If my wife takes vaccine shot so she wont get pregnant, then I wont ever wear coat.  That sucks and takes so much of the fun out of it.  For me, its stoping and I hate to stop if you know what I mean.  Plus, lets say the needle is 3 inches long and it goes right up.........That would be so much pain and i have to wear a coat?  No way Grace.....


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## Grace T. (Mar 15, 2021)

Fauci is his own worst enemy


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371510818370691075


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## dad4 (Mar 15, 2021)

crush said:


> Paging all my educated and smart parents on here.  I know so many of you hold multiple degrees and many of you work in education and teach our kids math & science.  I also know so many of you think I'm a moron, idiot and dam fool.  So please smart ones, answer the following Q's for me and I will leave for good.  To all my pro mask folks who mad dog me for not wearing one all the time over my nose, help me understand what is the truth. Since we all breath the same air, where are all the dead dogs & cats?  Oh where, oh where are all the dead animals?  Where are all the dead birds? Where oh where are all the dead homeless people who dont wear a mask?  In fact, where are all the dead people who never wear a mask?
> More Q's from dumb crush. Why is that when I walk into my pals Thai place that me and the wife have to wear a mask walking in but we can take mask off after we sit down?  Does the Rona have respect when you sit down to eat and it goes away?  Why is it you can sit in a full plane with 100s of folks but can't sit inside a church for an hour and a half?  Why can Hound and I sit at a bar in AZ at 9:55pm for a drink but at 10:05pm, we have to leave? Rona comes out after 10:05pm?  So many questions in my mind.  Oh, and where did the flu go this year?


(why rona has a different impact on domestic animals.)

1- Different animals respond differently to each bacteria or virus.

Salmonella can kill us.  In chickens, it is a natural probiotic that helps their digestion.  Same bacteria, different animal, different result.

2- if rona killed one out of every thousand cats, are you sure you would you notice?  I don’t think I’ve even seen 1000 cats in my life.   We just care more when something kills people.

(why rona knows to leave you alone when eating or on planes)

3- rona doesn’t leave you alone when eating, or on planes.  If the guy upwind of you at the restaurant breathes out rona, you are breathing it in.  Same goes for planes.

(where did the flu go?)

4- We have no flu this year because we killed it with masks and distance.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci is his own worst enemy
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371510818370691075


We have seen examples of people buying into things they previously didn’t when the messaging is delivered by right person in their eyes. Same message different speaker. Remember the polls amongst republicans that showed they disapproved of Obamacare but liked the ACA? Lol!


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> (why rona has a different impact on domestic animals.)
> 
> 1- Different animals respond differently to each bacteria or virus.
> 
> ...


Dr Dad, you amaze me with your talents.  Online Math teacher during the day and socal soccer doc the rest of the time.  Listen, #4 just exposed you for weird science teacher.  Good luck up in Nocal


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)




----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

Who is Q?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

The situation developing in Europe is a bit of a train wreck, with rising cases, high vaccines skepticism, and the AZ vaccine now paused in many countries.  It's gotten so bad that EU officials are now talking mass vaccination with Sputnik vaccine imports.









						European Paranoia Stalls a COVID Vaccine | National Review
					

Europe loses its mind over the AstraZeneca vaccine.




					www.nationalreview.com


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The situation developing in Europe is a bit of a train wreck, with rising cases, high vaccines skepticism, and the AZ vaccine now paused in many countries.  It's gotten so bad that EU officials are now talking mass vaccination with Sputnik vaccine imports.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Rumor also is that Sputnik works.  So, huge ego hit, but not necessarily a bad idea.

Trump deserves credit for the vaccine deals, but it will be a long time before the left here will admit it.  

Of course, it will also be a long time before the right is willing to blame trump for undermining the basic public health measures, though he deserves that, too.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 16, 2021)

Democrats Want 'Vaccine Passports' Required To Attend Concerts, But No IDs Required To Vote
					

The left seems intent on removing voter ID, but is simultaneously flirting with the idea of mandating Coronavirus testing and vaccine passports.




					thefederalist.com


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Rumor also is that Sputnik works.  So, huge ego hit, but not necessarily a bad idea.
> 
> Trump deserves credit for the vaccine deals, but it will be a long time before the left here will admit it.
> 
> Of course, it will also be a long time before the right is willing to blame trump for undermining the basic public health measures, though he deserves that, too.


Sputnik is actually on track to be the dominant vaccine world wide thanks to the tumble of az.   It’s easier to handle than moderna and Pfizer and j&j put its eggs in the us approval.  The Chinese vaccine has been viewed with more skepticism and reports are Sputnik may even be effective against the South Africa variant. It’s the likely dominant vaccine for Brazil, India, South Africa in addition to the moves from Eastern Europe to adopt. It’s also the likely lead vaccine for Mexico so if it doesn’t work or the data has been tampered with we are in for a huge mess just south of the border.  Russia has also shown a willingness to let go of its supply despite the Russian population not being at full immunity (something politically in feasible in the us).


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 16, 2021)

Here is some important safety theater.

How much does that guy get paid. "Hey I hear you work at the WH. What do you do there? "


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371709114573750273


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 16, 2021)

Today is an important anniversary. 15 days to slow the spread.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371847644780363782


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

How did Marvelous really die?  I heard a rumor on the grape vine today.. Any truth to da rumor mill?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

If you plan to travel, keep your vaccination records handy......









						Support for Covid-19 Vaccine Passports Grows, With European, Chinese Backing
					

Many international travelers will likely need to prove they are vaccinated or free of Covid-19 if they plan trips later this year, after the European Union and China both said they would move ahead with plans for “vaccine passports.”




					www.wsj.com


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Democrats Want 'Vaccine Passports' Required To Attend Concerts, But No IDs Required To Vote
> 
> 
> The left seems intent on removing voter ID, but is simultaneously flirting with the idea of mandating Coronavirus testing and vaccine passports.
> ...


That’s because a stadium full of illegal immigrants is not a public health risk.  A stadium full of unvaccinated people is a public health risk.

From a covid perspective, the vaccine passport is a good idea.  Expect ticketmaster to require it for a year or so.  Ticketmaster knows that mom buys the tickets, and Mom is not going to buy tickets if she thinks Susie is going to get sick at the concert.

Argue with mom if you like.   It won’t change anything.


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you plan to travel, keep your vaccination records handy......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well, it looks like my wife and I, and all the morons will need to stay put somewhere. No Vax, no travel which actually means the world controls your ass.  Plus, it looks like some states will be just like China and the EU. Texas here we come. I better learn how to sell over the phone.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you plan to travel, keep your vaccination records handy......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So the very same party that has a fit regarding voter ID...and in their big bill basically want to outlaw voter ID, will now advocate for essentially and ID to travel. In this case proof of vaccine. 

A disease mind you that is not a concern health wise to the VAST majority of the population.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

Some kernel or truth here...the early pro-lockdown US Covid stars have been all knocked down a peg or two (some more than others): Cuomo (scandal), Whitmer (scandal), Newsom (recall), Birx (retired), Fauci (while still very respected he's no longer universally admired, and he's 4th of July statements/vaccinated people statements were probably a bridge too far for most).  True also of such European countries that had praise gushed on them such as Germany and the Czech Republic.









						Andrew Cuomo: the Princess Di of the Plague
					

Princess Di performed vicarious national therapy and people loved her (though she had far more dignity and class than Cuomo ever mustered)




					spectator.us


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So the very same party that has a fit regarding voter ID...and in their big bill basically want to outlaw voter ID, will now advocate for essentially and ID to travel. In this case proof of vaccine.
> 
> A disease mind you that is not a concern health wise to the VAST majority of the population.


We tried the low intrusion methods of controlling disease.  People like you refused to help.  

What did you think would happen?  CDC would watch a half million people die and send a tweet saying “the virus will virus”?

That is not how bureaucracies work.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> From a covid perspective, the vaccine passport is a good idea.  Expect ticketmaster to require it for a year or so.  Ticketmaster knows that mom buys the tickets, and Mom is not going to buy tickets if she thinks Susie is going to get sick at the concert.
> 
> Argue with mom if you like.   It won’t change anything.


I dunno about this.  This is one of those thing like the economy which I'm very much in flux on and see two very different stories developing.  Only about 1/3 of moms care already and don't want little Susie going out of the house.  Another 1/3 know the vid probably isn't going away, the vid isn't harmful to little Susie, and Susie's probably going to eventually get it if she hasn't already.  This 1/3 is ready to move beyond it, and if there's a choice (e.g., Disney isn't requiring them) I think the market is going to push them away from those with restrictions, particularly since for kids vaccine skepticism will run higher than for adults (while I'm perfectly fine getting an mRNA vaccine, I wouldn't stick it in my kids as long as it has an experimental label on it).


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We tried the low intrusion methods of controlling disease.  People like you refused to help.
> 
> What did you think would happen?  CDC would watch a half million people die and send a tweet saying “the virus will virus”?
> 
> That is not how bureaucracies work.


Europe tried the higher intrusion methods of controlling disease.  It didn't work.  The EU is a ss.

I agree that the bureaucracies came under enormous pressure to "do something" so they did things which in the end may have only helped a little, and at a tremendous cost.  That's what happens when people panic.  Vaccine passports are different.  We're now moving into the phase of how can we force everyone to vaccinate (possibly repeatedly vaccinate) given that they can't use force so long as the emergency use label is on the thing...where it gets ugly is when they turn to kids and try to force it, but the ability to have that fight is still a bit aways, hence this more soft power projection.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Europe tried the higher intrusion methods of controlling disease.  It didn't work.  The EU is a ss.
> 
> I agree that the bureaucracies came under enormous pressure to "do something" so they did things which in the end may have only helped a little, and at a tremendous cost.  That's what happens when people panic.  Vaccine passports are different.  We're now moving into the phase of how can we force everyone to vaccinate (possibly repeatedly vaccinate) given that they can't use force so long as the emergency use label is on the thing...where it gets ugly is when they turn to kids and try to force it, but the ability to have that fight is still a bit aways, hence this more soft power projection.


No need for force to get kids to take it.  Over 90% of parents take their kid in for MMR without a second thought.

That said, it won't hurt to have Susie ask for her shot so she and Amber can go to the concert.

It isn't a "just do something" kind of situation.  

We have a technology that reduces transmission by over 70%.  It is about as difficult to use as glasses.  And we still have high level officials fighting it.

If everyone would help, R would be below 1.  
Base transmission would be 

R = 3*(1-0.7) =0.9.  

Close, but still under 1.0

Now look at what happens if 1/6 of the country refuses to help.   Base transmission becomes

R = 3*(1-(5/6)*0.7) = 1.25

Now we are into exponential growth.  And the only difference is 1/6 of the population thinks they should not have to follow the rules.


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No need for force to get kids to take it.  Over 90% of parents take their kid in for MMR without a second thought.
> 
> That said, it won't hurt to have Susie ask for her shot so she and Amber can go to the concert.
> 
> ...


Dr F said 95% effectiveness Dr Dad 4.  Why on God's green earth would I inject a 5% chance of something terrible happening to me or my loved one?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

crush said:


> Dr F said 95% effectiveness Dr Dad 4.  Why on God's green earth would I inject a 5% chance of something terrible happening to me or my loved one?


I was saying masks, not vaccines.  Masks reduce transmission by 70-79%, depending on the study.

We could have killed this thing  last summer if the left hadn't rioted and the right had simply worn their masks.

But, as I said, a minority refusing to follow rules is enough to impose a disease on the rest of us.  Which is what happened.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No need for force to get kids to take it.  Over 90% of parents take their kid in for MMR without a second thought.
> 
> That said, it won't hurt to have Susie ask for her shot so she and Amber can go to the concert.
> 
> ...


Setting aside the 70% number, o.k. let's give you the 70% arguendo.  That's before you get to dirty masks, reused masks, cloth masks which have been washed, gaiters and bandanas, masks dropping under the nose, improperly sized masks, masks which get wet, people who remove the masks to talk to friends, people who lower their masks to sneeze.  Seriously how many times have I seen people on TV or around me having to constantly raise their falling ill fitting masks from falling over their nose, touching those things 20-30 times in an hour.


----------



## whatithink (Mar 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Democrats Want 'Vaccine Passports' Required To Attend Concerts, But No IDs Required To Vote
> 
> 
> The left seems intent on removing voter ID, but is simultaneously flirting with the idea of mandating Coronavirus testing and vaccine passports.
> ...


Its a bit of a misleading headline based on the content of the article wrt the vaccine bit. 

Here in Republican AZ, I got the first shot, and a card I was told to keep. The second shot will also be recorded on the card apparently and I was told that I should then keep it safe and take an e-copy so that I could produce it going forward ... for what or to whom I have no idea. 

So I guess Republican AZ will want me to use this for a vaccine passport ...

BTW, I have no doubt that some countries will actually want international tourists to prove they are vaccinated OR they can quarantine for 2 weeks at their own expense. I travel internationally, obv. not in the last year, and will happily show my vaccine record rather then pay for 2 weeks quarantine.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Setting aside the 70% number, o.k. let's give you the 70% arguendo.  That's before you get to dirty masks, reused masks, cloth masks which have been washed, gaiters and bandanas, masks dropping under the nose, improperly sized masks, masks which get wet, people who remove the masks to talk to friends, people who lower their masks to sneeze.  Seriously how many times have I seen people on TV or around me having to constantly raise their falling ill fitting masks from falling over their nose, touching those things 20-30 times in an hour.


Even with all that, you still get 70-79%.  It is still good enough to reduce R below 1.0_, if you actually wear it._

Besides, if you want to advocate for better masks, I agree.  Mail a box of N95 masks to everyone in the US, then post videos on how to adjust them.  It would cost about 2-3 billion dollars.   Chump change.

The real problem is that, if 15% of people refuse to mask and distance, that's enough to spread the virus.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We tried the low intrusion methods of controlling disease.  People like you refused to help.
> 
> What did you think would happen?  CDC would watch a half million people die and send a tweet saying “the virus will virus”?
> 
> That is not how bureaucracies work.


Viruses are a part of the evolutionary process.  Bureaucracies just get in the way.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No need for force to get kids to take it.  Over 90% of parents take their kid in for MMR without a second thought.
> 
> That said, it won't hurt to have Susie ask for her shot so she and Amber can go to the concert.
> 
> ...


Your math is ignoring the survival rate.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I was saying masks, not vaccines.  Masks reduce transmission by 70-79%, depending on the study.
> 
> We could have killed this thing  last summer if the left hadn't rioted and the right had simply worn their masks.
> 
> But, as I said, a minority refusing to follow rules is enough to impose a disease on the rest of us.  Which is what happened.


Coocoo


----------



## whatithink (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you plan to travel, keep your vaccination records handy......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Its hardly surprising, is it?

It does strike me as somewhat bizarre though, as - based on my understanding - the vaccine purports to prevent you getting ill from COVID, or if you get ill, prevents you getting seriously ill. It doesn't prevent you getting COVID, i.e. you could get it but have no symptoms, so you can be carrying it with zero knowledge that you are carrying it. They also don't know how long it will last or what protection it protects against the newer variants (for obv. reasons).

It seems like its a useful mechanism to get some normalcy back and provides cover for governments if it goes pear shaped and/or provides confidence for people.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Your math is ignoring the survival rate.


Nope.  I was measuring transmission, not fatalities.  Nothing in my math assumed any fatality rate at all.  (high or low)

We could have killed the virus with moderate measures last summer.  The weather was in our favor.  We had masks.  We knew to stay outside.  A 70% effective control measure is enough to stop outbreaks of a moderately infectious disease- if everyone helps.

If 15% of the country insists on spreading disease, then it isn’t enough.  That’s what the math shows, and that’s what happened last summer.  A small minority of leftist protesters and right wing anti-mask advocates insisted that the rules did not apply to them.   And that minority was enough to give us a mid summer spike when numbers should have been low.  R=1.25 instead of R=0.9.

To read the recent news from Texas, that minority is still refusing to help.  The left insists on their right to loot Target for social justice, and the right insists on their right to spread disease in defense of freedom.  

-Jimbo


----------



## happy9 (Mar 16, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Its hardly surprising, is it?
> 
> It does strike me as somewhat bizarre though, as - based on my understanding - the vaccine purports to prevent you getting ill from COVID, or if you get ill, prevents you getting seriously ill.* It doesn't prevent you getting COVID, i.e. you could get it but have no symptoms, so you can be carrying it with zero knowledge that you are carrying it. They also don't know how long it will last or what protection it protects against the newer variants (for obv. reasons).*
> 
> It seems like its a useful mechanism to get some normalcy back and provides cover for governments if it goes pear shaped and/or provides confidence for people.


That's the part that makes people's head hurt.  If you are vaccinated but can still catch it and spread it, why get it?  If the vaccine isn't a a vaccine but a therapeutic , why get vaccinated if you are low risk?  I get "vaccinating" high risk people.  Those people don't really travel anywhere, maybe, depending on the population. And you want to make sure if they catch it, it's not as bad as it could be.  So why the requirement to have a vaccine passport.  It doesn't do anyone any good?? Do we still wear masks after being vaccinated and traveling abroad once again for business.  I can't wait to sit in an airplane, fully vaccinated with other vaccinated people for 10 hrs, wearing a mask. 

Sounds like a bunch of nonsense and theatre (the word for 2021). 

I have zero background in vaccines, virus stuff, etc (except for having been jabbed in the arm for stuff I really didn't care to ask about).  My circle includes people in the pharma and medical device world.  Their conversations surrounding the vaccine are interesting to say the least. Some consider it a medical device as opposed to a vaccine.  Fascinating.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Even with all that, you still get 70-79%.  It is still good enough to reduce R below 1.0_, if you actually wear it._
> 
> Besides, if you want to advocate for better masks, I agree.  Mail a box of N95 masks to everyone in the US, then post videos on how to adjust them.  It would cost about 2-3 billion dollars.   Chump change.
> 
> The real problem is that, if 15% of people refuse to mask and distance, that's enough to spread the virus.


So despite everything that happened in California, despite everything that happened in Europe, despite the praise leaped on the Czech Republic for its early mask adoption, we're back to the entire masks can control the pandemic thing.  Incredible.  Mind officially blown.

p.s. your avatar is supposed to be something derogatory, not some cool thing you like.  What is a character that sees everything blowing up around him, and is just all "world's fine...it's cool".  The only thing I can think of is that dog meme with the fire burning around him.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So despite everything that happened in California, despite everything that happened in Europe, despite the praise leaped on the Czech Republic for its early mask adoption, we're back to the entire masks can control the pandemic thing.  Incredible.  Mind officially blown.
> 
> p.s. your avatar is supposed to be something derogatory, not some cool thing you like.  What is a character that sees everything blowing up around him, and is just all "world's fine...it's cool".  The only thing I can think of is that dog meme with the fire burning around him.


Oh I've got it....Buzz Lightyear.  You think you are out there to do go, a heroic figure, a man of science and technology, with faith in the authority of the Star Command, and one wanting to aspire to great thing, but really you are a toy.  Hi Buzz!


----------



## espola (Mar 16, 2021)

happy9 said:


> That's the part that makes people's head hurt.  If you are vaccinated but can still catch it and spread it, why get it?  If the vaccine isn't a a vaccine but a therapeutic , why get vaccinated if you are low risk?  I get "vaccinating" high risk people.  Those people don't really travel anywhere, maybe, depending on the population. And you want to make sure if they catch it, it's not as bad as it could be.  So why the requirement to have a vaccine passport.  It doesn't do anyone any good?? Do we still wear masks after being vaccinated and traveling abroad once again for business.  I can't wait to sit in an airplane, fully vaccinated with other vaccinated people for 10 hrs, wearing a mask.
> 
> Sounds like a bunch of nonsense and theatre (the word for 2021).
> 
> I have zero background in vaccines, virus stuff, etc (except for having been jabbed in the arm for stuff I really didn't care to ask about).  My circle includes people in the pharma and medical device world.  Their conversations surrounding the vaccine are interesting to say the least. Some consider it a medical device as opposed to a vaccine.  Fascinating.


"I have zero background in vaccines"

No shit?


----------



## espola (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh I've got it....Buzz Lightyear.  You think you are out there to do go, a heroic figure, a man of science and technology, with faith in the authority of the Star Command, and one wanting to aspire to great thing, but really you are a toy.  Hi Buzz!


Your post used to be interesting because there was usually something to refute.  Now they're just empty "humor(?)".


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

espola said:


> Your post used to be interesting because there was usually something to refute.  Now they're just empty "humor(?)".


----------



## happy9 (Mar 16, 2021)

espola said:


> "I have zero background in vaccines"
> 
> No shit?


Yep, no shit.  Seems like the trend with most people on here and with worshipped experts.

What do you think, is it a vaccine or a therapeutic?


----------



## espola (Mar 16, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Yep, no shit.  Seems like the trend with most people on here and with worshipped experts.
> 
> What do you think, is it a vaccine or a therapeutic?


It's a vaccine.  Perhaps vaccines don't do what you think they should, especially with a disease for which little is known so far.


----------



## happy9 (Mar 16, 2021)

espola said:


> It's a vaccine.  Perhaps vaccines don't do what you think they should, especially with a disease for which little is known so far.


Perhaps it's not a vaccine if it's really only preventing me from getting sick but still allows me to get it and spread.  Don't ya think?

Plenty of under the table debating going on in Pharma land.  It must be sold as a vaccine though - so we'll call it a vaccine for now... even though it hasn't even been  approved by the FDA.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

Interesting about long COVID.  Most likely explanation, though, is that long COVID has a psychosomatic component since the vaccine doesn't have any known properties that would magically make you feel instantly better.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/long-haul-covid-vaccine/2021/03/16/6effcb28-859e-11eb-82bc-e58213caa38e_story.html


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So despite everything that happened in California, despite everything that happened in Europe, despite the praise leaped on the Czech Republic for its early mask adoption, we're back to the entire masks can control the pandemic thing.  Incredible.  Mind officially blown.
> 
> p.s. your avatar is supposed to be something derogatory, not some cool thing you like.  What is a character that sees everything blowing up around him, and is just all "world's fine...it's cool".  The only thing I can think of is that dog meme with the fire burning around him.


I know you don't like it.  But it is what the models say.

A 70% reduction in transmission is enough to reduce R below 1. 

Most research shows that masks provide at least a 70% reduction, especially if you also close indoor dining. 

However, if you only have 85% compliance, you still have an outbreak, because you still get R>1.0.

That seems to be what happened both here and later in Europe.  At least 15% of people skipped masks and kept gathering, and that was enough to let covid keep growing.

You can learn from it, or not.  

But ignoring it doesn't make it not true.  Non compliance with masks and gatherings is a major factor in covid spread.  

Yo, Jimbo

(As I said, I don't like insults.  The whole Magoo thing is childish and annoying.  Espola isn't blind or unaware of the world around him.  You just don't like what he says.  It no more thoughtful than EOTL's "Grace Karen" nonsense.)


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nope.  I was measuring transmission, not fatalities.  Nothing in my math assumed any fatality rate at all.  (high or low)


Yes.  That was my point.  Despite all the transmission, the death rate is as predictable as its always been.  What's your r-squared for COVID cases vs. deaths?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I know you don't like it.  But it is what the models say.


The models?????  You mean the models that took past PCR test in to account from SARs-1?  Lol!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

espola said:


> It's a vaccine.  Perhaps vaccines don't do what you think they should, especially with a disease for which little is known so far.


Why would you call it a vaccine when it's just M-RNA?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Perhaps it's not a vaccine if it's really only preventing me from getting sick but still allows me to get it and spread.  Don't ya think?
> 
> Plenty of under the table debating going on in Pharma land.  It must be sold as a vaccine though - so we'll call it a vaccine for now... even though it hasn't even been  approved by the FDA.


They granted Emergency Use Authorization to provide liability protection to Big Pharma.


----------



## espola (Mar 16, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Perhaps it's not a vaccine if it's really only preventing me from getting sick but still allows me to get it and spread.  Don't ya think?
> 
> Plenty of under the table debating going on in Pharma land.  It must be sold as a vaccine though - so we'll call it a vaccine for now... even though it hasn't even been  approved by the FDA.


It's a vaccine because of the mechanism by which it works - strengthening the body's natural response to invaders.  It doesn't stop the invaders from getting in, and no vaccine ever developed is 100% effective.

What is missing from the doctor's bag is a cure - something that acts like penicillin used to do when it was first discovered.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

espola said:


> It's a vaccine because of the mechanism by which it works - strengthening the body's natural response to invaders.  It doesn't stop the invaders from getting in, and no vaccine ever developed is 100% effective.
> 
> What is missing from the doctor's bag is a cure - something that acts like penicillin used to do when it was first discovered.


And that mechanism is what?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

Funny how government interventions in financial markets are just like government interventions in healthcare/health insurance.  Both industries have been bailed out AND indemnified in the last 20 years over fake crisis.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I know you don't like it.  But it is what the models say.
> 
> A 70% reduction in transmission is enough to reduce R below 1.
> 
> ...


January 28th, 2021

Awesome charts for you today.

First, the ol' California vs. Florida issue again.

The best the excuse factory has been able to do is to pretend that Californians aren't complying with the regulations or they're not staying home. Why, they're still going to restaurants! This is supposed to be why California is doing worse than Florida at the present moment.

In fact, the evidence is the other way around. Here's a plot of restaurant visits in Florida (top line) alongside restaurant visits in California (bottom line):


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> And that mechanism is what?


You can look up the mechanism. 

I believe the adenovirus injects the RNA into the cell, the RNA is translated into spike proteins, which are carried to the cell membrane for display.  

At that point, the cell is identified and killed by the immune system, for the crime of displaying a weird protein.  More importantly, the immune system begins to look out for more spike proteins.

Sounds like a vaccine to me.  You wanted them to grow virus in eggs and boil it into submission?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You can look up the mechanism.
> 
> I believe the adenovirus injects the RNA into the cell, the RNA is translated into spike proteins, which are carried to the cell membrane for display.
> 
> ...


Why not??  How do you think our species made it this far?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I know you don't like it.  But it is what the models say.
> 
> A 70% reduction in transmission is enough to reduce R below 1.
> 
> ...


1. I object to the confluence of masks and gatherings.  I agree social distancing helps to stop the spread of the virus.  But if you go over to grandma with COVID and hang out with her for 3 hours at Christmas (like my church members did), sorry you are going to give grandma COVID.
2. Again, the model assumes the ideal.  If it's not working in the real world, the model is clearly broken.  I've given you additional explanations for why masks aren't work beyond people just refusing including: wearing them too long they get wet, improper usage (my god, the videos this week of people fumbling with them or touching them), washing them, reusing dirty ones, using bad ones (like bandanas or gaiters).
3. The Grace Karen thing is idiotic as an insult.  Again, a Karen was originally applied to a white person (which I am not) complaining about a person of color (which I am).  The problem with that insult isn't that it's an insult, but a bad one.  The Karen thing has also been played out as it basically now refers to any woman that's a complainer.
4. Magoo, however, is very subtle and clever.  Unfortunately, I did not come up with it.  But it's a critique of the fact he gets lost and often can't "see" an argument despite his stubborn insistence that he does, plus he's a curmudgeon to boot.
5. It's why Buzz is perfect for you.  First, it's not a very severe insult....everyone loves Buzz....in fact he was my eldest's favorite Disney character.  But he is also very proud, thinks he's very heroic, is very math and science oriented (that "infinity" thing) and doesn't realize he's a toy despite everyone telling him and all the evidence around him.  It's perfect!


----------



## espola (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 1. I object to the confluence of masks and gatherings.  I agree social distancing helps to stop the spread of the virus.  But if you go over to grandma with COVID and hang out with her for 3 hours at Christmas (like my church members did), sorry you are going to give grandma COVID.
> 2. Again, the model assumes the ideal.  If it's not working in the real world, the model is clearly broken.  I've given you additional explanations for why masks aren't work beyond people just refusing including: wearing them too long they get wet, improper usage (my god, the videos this week of people fumbling with them or touching them), washing them, reusing dirty ones, using bad ones (like bandanas or gaiters).
> 3. The Grace Karen thing is idiotic as an insult.  Again, a Karen was originally applied to a white person (which I am not) complaining about a person of color (which I am).  The problem with that insult isn't that it's an insult, but a bad one.  The Karen thing has also been played out as it basically now refers to any woman that's a complainer.
> 4. Magoo, however, is very subtle and clever.  Unfortunately, I did not come up with it.  But it's a critique of the fact he gets lost and often can't "see" an argument despite his stubborn insistence that he does, plus he's a curmudgeon to boot.
> 5. It's why Buzz is perfect for you.  First, it's not a very severe insult....everyone loves Buzz....in fact he was my eldest's favorite Disney character.  But he is also very proud, thinks he's very heroic, is very math and science oriented (that "infinity" thing) and doesn't realize he's a toy despite everyone telling him and all the evidence around him.  It's perfect!


"And in recent months, the meme has evolved into something new: Coronavirus Karen. This particular form of Karen refuses to wear a face covering in shops, won't stick to quarantine, and thinks the whole pandemic thing is overblown. "









						What exactly is a 'Karen' and where did the meme come from?
					

To many the Karen meme - and its male equivalent Ken - sums up a specific type of white privilege.



					www.bbc.com
				




There is a good video embedded in that article with a lot of Grace Karens speaking.


----------



## N00B (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Magoo, however, is very subtle and clever.  Unfortunately, I did not come up with it.  But it's a critique of the fact he gets lost and often can't "see" an argument despite his stubborn insistence that he does, plus he's a curmudgeon to boot.


I certainly haven’t been on these forums as long as the rest of you, but based on my time here (aided in part by the champagne taste test in espola’s neighborhood) I’m more inclined to Droopy Dog.

He may not move fast, but is shrewd enough to outwit his foes.


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh I've got it....Buzz Lightyear.  You think you are out there to do go, a heroic figure, a man of science and technology, with faith in the authority of the Star Command, and one wanting to aspire to great thing, but really you are a toy.  Hi Buzz!


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

espola said:


> "I have zero background in vaccines"
> 
> No shit?


EOTL is back as Espola.


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

espola said:


> It's a vaccine.  Perhaps vaccines don't do what you think they should, especially with a disease for which little is known so far.


Long Game, is that you?


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

N00B said:


> I certainly haven’t been on these forums as long as the rest of you, but based on my time here (aided in part by the champagne taste test in espola’s neighborhood) I’m more inclined to Droopy Dog.
> 
> He may not move fast, but is shrewd enough to outwit his foes.


This is Espola.  "It's a dark day today."  Always gloom and doom with Mr Magoo.  I dont get him.  i told him almost three years ago soccer was going to get flipped on its head and he told me I was coo coo.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

11/24/20

Remember when the CDC credited masks for bringing down "cases" in Arizona?

When they say ridiculous things like this, they give the green light to people who want to blame their neighbors for rises in cases. "Why, since we know masks work, the rise in cases must be because of you stupid anti-science people who refuse to wear them!"

Even though mask compliance is as high as ever, these "pro-science" people just _know_ it can't be, because they just _know_ masks at the very least go a long way toward solving the problem.

Well, anyway, how about we check out Arizona's curve now?







Well, how about that.

Could it be that masks didn't bring the curve down after all? That these curves seem to do more or less the same thing no matter what?

Right now one blue state after another that supposedly "followed the science," is seeing a rise in "cases." And all their people can do is blame their neighbors. Because, don't you know, the "science" works! So if the "science" isn't working, that means someone somewhere must not be sciencing.


----------



## espola (Mar 16, 2021)

N00B said:


> I certainly haven’t been on these forums as long as the rest of you, but based on my time here (aided in part by the champagne taste test in espola’s neighborhood) I’m more inclined to Droopy Dog.
> 
> He may not move fast, but is shrewd enough to outwit his foes.


Did you watch the mimosa appendix?  (Be sure to view and like it on youtube so Logan gets his stats)


----------



## crush (Mar 16, 2021)

*Trump urges all Americans to get COVID vaccine: 'It's a safe vaccine' and it 'works'*

Never!!!  I dont care what Dr F or T says.  My wife and I are 100% a, "No."


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> 11/24/20
> 
> Remember when the CDC credited masks for bringing down "cases" in Arizona?
> 
> ...


The blue state train wreck right now is NY, who opened indoor dining.

Nothing to do with D/R.  It's just behavior.  If you open restaurants and/or skip masks, your numbers go up.


----------



## happy9 (Mar 16, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> They granted Emergency Use Authorization to provide liability protection to Big Pharma.


Yes indeed, that was my point. Big Pharma is gonna ride this horse.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

crush said:


> *Trump urges all Americans to get COVID vaccine: 'It's a safe vaccine' and it 'works'*
> 
> Never!!!  I dont care what Dr F or T says.  My wife and I are 100% a, "No."


Fauci is a fraud.  Always has been big pharma shill.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 16, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Why not??  How do you think our species made it this far?


So take one of the old fashioned ones once they get approved.  They work, too. 

-Buzz


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Fauci is a fraud.  Always has been big pharma shill.


He's also a particular kind of shill.  Most (IIRC around 90%) of the money allocated early on was directed by him entirely towards vaccines.   Only about 10% was allocated towards treatments, mostly the antibody treatments Trump received.  He made a deliberate decision not to put money into treatments (either new or repurposed).  On the one hand, credit where credit is due, we (unlike the EU) have vaccines.  On the other hand, because some treatments like ivermectin were and continued to be ignored, if proven out he will have contributed to the needless death of thousands.  Trade offs.  Life's messy.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 16, 2021)

espola said:


> "And in recent months, the meme has evolved into something new: Coronavirus Karen. This particular form of Karen refuses to wear a face covering in shops, won't stick to quarantine, and thinks the whole pandemic thing is overblown. "
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So if I (a person of color) were to be yelled as in a supermarket for not wearing a mask by a white woman I'd be a Karen?

Yet if I (a person of color) were to call the police on the Dangy Bros next door (also persons of color, including one African American) to complain about their monthly keggers (sans masks, with loud music), I'd also be a Karen?

Yet if you (a white person with relatives who are persons of color) were to do either you'd not be a Karen because you are a guy?

Something seems strangely amiss to me.  Almost like two spidermen accusing each other of being karen.









						Spider-Man Pointing at Spider-Man
					

Spider-Man Pointing at Spider-Man refers to an image from the 60’s Spider-Man cartoon episode in which two people in Spider-Man costumes are pointing at each other.




					knowyourmeme.com


----------



## espola (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So if I (a person of color) were to be yelled as in a supermarket for not wearing a mask by a white woman I'd be a Karen?
> 
> Yet if I (a person of color) were to call the police on the Dangy Bros next door (also persons of color, including one African American) to complain about their monthly keggers (sans masks, with loud music), I'd also be a Karen?
> 
> ...


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He's also a particular kind of shill.  Most (IIRC around 90%) of the money allocated early on was directed by him entirely towards vaccines.   Only about 10% was allocated towards treatments, mostly the antibody treatments Trump received.  He made a deliberate decision not to put money into treatments (either new or repurposed).  On the one hand, credit where credit is due, we (unlike the EU) have vaccines.  On the other hand, because some treatments like ivermectin were and continued to be ignored, if proven out he will have contributed to the needless death of thousands.  Trade offs.  Life's messy.


So much of what Fauci does depends on him not knowing what he is doing.  He is a puppet like Biden.  They lack the public policy background to even consider trade offs in a meaningful way.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 16, 2021)

From the standpoint of what we laughingly call our "public health" establishment, the most dangerous heretic of 2020 was Scott Atlas.

Atlas, who served in the White House during 2020 as a public health adviser on matters related to COVID-19, recently spoke to a group of students at Stanford University about his experience.

Atlas was treated absurdly by his fellow academics and (of course) by the media, who accused him of all kinds of wickedness because he dissented from the lockdown consensus.

He reviewed all the key points from the past year.

First, in order to explain away the clear failures of lockdowns and other alleged mitigation measures, the lockdowners have tried to pretend that Americans weren't really all that locked down after all, and that in any case Americans didn't really change their behavior all that much.

Atlas threw cold water on both of those claims:

_Here's the unacknowledged reality: almost all states and major cities, with a handful of exceptions, have implemented severe restrictions for many months, including closures of businesses and in-person school, mobility restrictions and curfews, quarantines, limits on group gatherings, and mask mandates dating back to at least the summer.

And let’s clear up the myths about the behavior of Americans – social mobility tracking of Americans and data from Gallup, YouGov, the COVID-19 Consortium, and the CDC have shown significant reductions of movement as well as a consistently high percentage of mask wearing since the late summer, similar to Western European countries and approaching those in Asia._

He then proceeded to lay out some of the costs of lockdown, of which I offer a sample here:

_A recent study confirms that _up to_ 78% of cancers were never detected due to missed screening over three months. If one extrapolates to the entire country, up to a million new cases or more over nine months will have gone undetected. That health disaster adds to missed critical surgeries, chemotherapy, organ transplants, presentations of pediatric illnesses, heart attack and stroke patients too afraid to call emergency services, and others, all well documented.

Beyond hospital care, CDC reported four-fold increases in depression, three-fold increases in anxiety symptoms, and a doubling of suicidal ideation, particularly among young adults – college age – after the first few months of lockdowns, echoing the AMA reports of drug overdoses and suicides. An explosion of insurance claims for these psychological harms in children just verified this, doubling nationally since last year; and in the strictly locked down Northeast, there was a more than 300% increase of teenagers visiting doctors for self-harm.

Domestic abuse and child abuse have been skyrocketing due to the isolation and specifically to the loss of jobs, particularly in the strictest lockdowns. 

Was anybody even bothering to consider these effects?

That, said Atlas, was why someone like him needed to be part of the discussion:

To manage such a crisis, shouldn’t policymakers objectively consider both the virus harms and the totality of impact of policies? That’s the importance of health policy experts – my field – with a broader scope of expertise than that of epidemiologists and basic scientists. And that’s exactly why I was called to the White House – there were zero health policy scholars on the Task Force; no one with a medical background who also considered the impacts of the policies was advising the White House. 

He also spoke about the policy of universal masking:

Regarding universal masks: 38 states have implemented general-population mask mandates, most since at least the summer, with almost all the rest having mandates in their major cities. Widespread, general-population mask usage has shown little empirical utility for stopping cases, even though that evidence has been censored by Twitter and Amazon. Widespread mask usage showed only minimal impact in Denmark’s randomized controlled study. Those are facts. And facts matter.

I posted a list where mask mandates empirically failed to stop cases, along with direct quotes, without any edit, from WHO, CDC, and Oxford University. That was censored by Twitter. And I stated numerous times that it would be irrational to wear a mask “when _alone_ riding a bicycle _outside_, when driving your own car _alone_, or when walking in the desert _alone_.” I stand by those words.

Those who charge that it is unethical, even dangerous, to question broad population mask mandates must not realize that several of the world’s top infectious disease scientists _and_ major public health organizations explicitly question the efficacy of general population masks. The public needs to know the truth.

For instance, Jefferson and Heneghan of University of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine wrote: “It would appear that despite two decades of pandemic preparedness, there is considerable uncertainty as to the value of wearing masks.” Oxford’s renowned epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta said there is no need for masks unless one is elderly or high risk. Stanford’s Jay Bhattacharya stated “mask mandates are not supported by the scientific data … there is no scientific evidence that mask mandates work to slow the spread of the disease.”

Throughout this pandemic until December, the WHO’s “Advice on the use of masks in the context of COVID-19” stated: “At present, there is no direct evidence (from studies on COVID-19 and in healthy people in the community) on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19.” In December, the WHO changed their wording to today’s “At present there is only limited and inconsistent scientific evidence to support the effectiveness of masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2.”

The CDC, in a review of influenza pandemics, “did not find evidence that surgical-type face masks are effective in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission, either when worn by infected persons (source control) or by persons in the general community to reduce their susceptibility.” And until the WHO removed it on October 21, 2020 (almost immediately after Twitter censored my tweet highlighting the WHO quote), the WHO had written, “At the present time, the widespread use of masks by healthy people in the community setting is not yet supported by high quality or direct scientific evidence and there are potential benefits and harms to consider.”_

Atlas then slammed the academic community, particularly at Stanford (his home institution), which conducted itself appallingly in his case.

It's a great summary of the insanity.


----------



## crush (Mar 17, 2021)




----------



## crush (Mar 17, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 17, 2021)

"In the last 20 years, we can point to three very specific events in which we have a Corona virus that shifts its behavior from a specific upper respiratory experience to one that's more involving the deep lungs and vascular systems and those present clinically much different finding. The first one was called SARS that really appeared coming out of China and South Asia in 2001, 2002, and then burned itself out importantly within 18 to 24 months, never to really reappear in its same form because humanity had reached this new homeostasis with it. And not just humanity, but water systems, soil systems, air systems, everything had come into balance with that new species within the Corona family, if you will, or that new element of genomic information. Because we can't really, speciate a non-living organism like a virus. So instead it's more of a description of a family of genetic codes."--Zach Bush, MD.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 17, 2021)

Public health officials and teachers unions have a lot to answer for.....









						What School Shutdowns Have Wrought | City Journal
					

Parents are exploring new educational options for a post-pandemic America.




					www.city-journal.org


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 17, 2021)

In the EU, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal remain declining.  Belgium, Sweden and Switzerland are now no longer declining but have a slightly rising trajectory.  Czechia seems to have finally turned a page but is still awfully high.  Pretty much everywhere else including France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Eastern Europe are rising.  In particular, the previously spared Norway, Finland and Estonia are hitting record highs, getting hit extremely heavily, hospital systems under strain.  Seems like everyone in Europe is pretty much going to end up in the same place (possible exception Portugal, Ireland and the UK).


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In the EU, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal remain declining.  Belgium, Sweden and Switzerland are now no longer declining but have a slightly rising trajectory.  Czechia seems to have finally turned a page but is still awfully high.  Pretty much everywhere else including France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Eastern Europe are rising.  In particular, the previously spared Norway, Finland and Estonia are hitting record highs, getting hit extremely heavily, hospital systems under strain.  Seems like everyone in Europe is pretty much going to end up in the same place (possible exception Portugal, Ireland and the UK).


Well it must be in person dining that is causing the rise right? 

I just answered for someone else on these boards. Sorry. But you knew what the rote response was going to be. I just got here before he did.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In the EU, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal remain declining.  Belgium, Sweden and Switzerland are now no longer declining but have a slightly rising trajectory.  Czechia seems to have finally turned a page but is still awfully high.  Pretty much everywhere else including France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Eastern Europe are rising.  In particular, the previously spared Norway, Finland and Estonia are hitting record highs, getting hit extremely heavily, hospital systems under strain.  Seems like everyone in Europe is pretty much going to end up in the same place (possible exception Portugal, Ireland and the UK).


Now the funny/disappointing thing is...we still have a bunch of people running around saying the US blew it. That is a non thinking and usually a partisan response. 

As I look at the various western democracies, it seems that we are all roughly in the same boat. It is like the virus doesn't care about gov policy.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 17, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well it must be in person dining that is causing the rise right?
> 
> I just answered for someone else on these boards. Sorry. But you knew what the rote response was going to be. I just got here before he did.


 I was wondering what you'd talk about now that Texas and Florida have daily case rates twice and three times that of California.

FL: 21 cases per 100k
TX: 16 cases per 100k
CA: 7 cases per 100k

You can't really talk about the EU surge in cases and ignore the UK variant and lack of vaccines.  It's a bad combination.  (Though I agree they should close their bars and restaurants )


----------



## espola (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Public health officials and teachers unions have a lot to answer for.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"...maybe..."


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I was wondering what you'd talk about now that Texas and Florida have daily case rates twice and three times that of California.


I made a screen shot on March 10 of the big 3 states. Lets see where they are cases per million and deaths per million a month from that date.

Further did the downward trends continue in cases or do we see a rise after TX opens up?

Or are you now saying 6 days later you can make the call?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 17, 2021)

espola said:


> "...maybe..."


Maybe?

Who else is responsible?  We have a D governor, a D senate, a D assembly, D city councils and teachers union school boards.  

California is running out of right wingers to blame.  The last three are packing their bags for Texas.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 17, 2021)

"So when they told us to stay far apart from each other last spring in the name of public health, it was an enormous sacrifice, whether or not we understood it at the time. Because this was a trusting and law-abiding country, we obeyed that order. We barely grumbled about it. We assumed they knew best. *"Stay six feet from each other."* That was social distancing. It was the law and most of us followed that law.

But where did that law come from? Who did the scientific research that determines six feet was the safest distance apart from other people that you could be? Somebody should have asked that question last spring, but as far as we know, nobody did.

It turns out the research that formed *the basis of that law came from a German hygenicist called Carl Flugge.* It was Flugge who decided that six-foot separations were necessary to slow the spread of pathogens. The CDC went with Flugge's judgment. *What the CDC didn't tell us was that Karl Flugge had been dead for nearly 100 years. *His research on social distancing was published in the 19th century, before most Americans had electricity or indoor plumbing. So why is that research still guiding public health policy in this country in 2021? It's a good question, and experts don't seem to have a good answer.

Last year, *one of the top aerosol scientists in Australia, a woman called Lidia Morawska, likened social distancing regulations to a cult ritual: "The dogma was born. Like any dogma, it's extremely difficult to change people's minds and change the dogmas." So it was all just faith-based, and it had massive consequences.*

Millions of American schoolchildren have not been educated for a year because the CDC turned century-old German theories about tuberculosis into a kind of modern, state-enforced religious faith. It's enough to make you feel sick.

Yes, our authorities are just that mediocre. But the most infuriating part of it all is not that they were wrong, but that they won't admit they were wrong and apologize for it. Dr. Anthony Fauci spent much of last year pretending "six feet apart" was some kind of unquestioned, universally recognized physics principle, like gravity or photosynthesis."

"The science was settled, we were told.

Or at least, was settled until last week, *when the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases found that the law of six feet of social distancing isn't actually real. It's not a law. It was a guess, and it's wrong.* Researchers looked at coronavirus case rates in Massachusetts school districts that required six feet of social distancing and compared those with school districts that required only three feet of social distancing (yes, there were some). Researchers found there was no statistically significant difference in coronavirus cases between the two. That wasn't just true for students; it was also true for adult staff members. The study also controlled for coronavirus rates in the surrounding communities. It was not shoddy research. It was real. Here's the conclusion:

"Lower physical distancing policies can be adopted in school settings with masking mandates without negatively impacting student or staff safety."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Public health officials and teachers unions have a lot to answer for.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What Irony that our schools shutdown and still are when it is so obvious that Fauci et al were grossly wrong!


----------



## dad4 (Mar 17, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I made a screen shot on March 10 of the big 3 states. Lets see where they are cases per million and deaths per million a month from that date.
> 
> Further did the downward trends continue in cases or do we see a rise after TX opens up?
> 
> Or are you now saying 6 days later you can make the call?


Me?  I am saying it is meaningless to run stats with N=3.  You run stats with N= 10,000.  The CDC did that for us and told us that masks work.

You're the one saying CA, TX, and FL would prove something.  And then you stopped posting when the numbers turned against you.  ( Which is one reason not to use stats with low N.)


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 17, 2021)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is clear and consistent in its social distancing recommendation: To reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus, people should remain at least six feet away from others who are not in their households. The guideline holds whether you are eating in a restaurant, lifting weights at a gym or learning long division in a fourth-grade classroom.
The guideline has been especially consequential for schools, many of which have not fully reopened because they do not have enough space to keep students six feet apart.
Now, spurred by a better understanding of how the virus spreads and a growing concern about the harms of keeping children out of school, some public health experts are calling on the agency to reduce the recommended distance in schools from six feet to three.
*"It never struck me that six feet was particularly sensical in the context of mitigation," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "I wish the C.D.C. would just come out and say this is not a major issue."*
On Sunday, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN that the C.D.C. was reviewing the matter.
*The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery. "It's almost like it was pulled out of thin air," said Linsey Marr, an expert on viral transmission at Virginia Tech University."*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I was wondering what you'd talk about now that Texas and Florida have daily case rates twice and three times that of California.


The thing that your math doesn't account for.  Deaths.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Me?  I am saying it is meaningless to run stats with N=3.  You run stats with N= 10,000.  The CDC did that for us and told us that masks work.
> 
> You're the one saying CA, TX, and FL would prove something.  And then you stopped posting when the numbers turned against you.  ( Which is one reason not to use stats with low N.)


I didn't stop posting numbers. Basically right now TX, FL, CA all have about the same cases per million and deaths per million. 

I also said at the time posting the screenshot that lets see what happens a month from now. Right? You were aghast at the idea TX would open up and ditch masks. 

So a month from now (3 weeks at this point) if tossing masks and opening up is a mistake the numbers should show it right?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Me?  I am saying it is meaningless to run stats with N=3.  You run stats with N= 10,000.  The CDC did that for us and told us that masks work.
> 
> You're the one saying CA, TX, and FL would prove something.  And then you stopped posting when the numbers turned against you.  ( Which is one reason not to use stats with low N.)


How's that R-squared for Deaths and cases coming along?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Maybe?
> 
> Who else is responsible?  We have a D governor, a D senate, a D assembly, D city councils and teachers union school boards.
> 
> California is running out of right wingers to blame.  The last three are packing their bags for Texas.


Not stopping Newsome from trying to blame the Recall effort on Right Wing Trump supporters.  He’s so ignorant he can’t believe he’s lost his own base with his hypocrisy.

I know just as more anti Trump Democrats that have signed the recall than I know actual Trump supporters.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 17, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I didn't stop posting numbers. Basically right now TX, FL, CA all have about the same cases per million and deaths per million.
> 
> I also said at the time posting the screenshot that lets see what happens a month from now. Right? You were aghast at the idea TX would open up and ditch masks.
> 
> So a month from now (3 weeks at this point) if tossing masks and opening up is a mistake the numbers should show it right?


The problem with mask is that they aren't regulated for their intended effect.  People make their own mask and the government allows that freedom, whether they know those mask stop the spread of infectious disease or not.  So are we really surprised that case numbers are high given that most mask wouldn't and obviously haven't stopped infection.  And if they are "high" case numbers via the PCR test, what past pandemics do we have to compare those alleged high case counts to? Dad4 runs his case numbers without precedence and completely ignores empirical evidence for all past respiratory virus deaths.  All public COVID policy implementation is based on the "if we just save one life" narrative.  Spock, the heretic, would totally disagree!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 17, 2021)

Anybody remember what the road to hell is paved with??


----------



## whatithink (Mar 17, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Anybody remember what the road to hell is paved with??


Later tonight it'll be shamrocks ... all going to plan, I won't remember tomorrow, and hell will be the least of my (head's) worries


----------



## dad4 (Mar 17, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I didn't stop posting numbers. Basically right now TX, FL, CA all have about the same cases per million and deaths per million.
> 
> I also said at the time posting the screenshot that lets see what happens a month from now. Right? You were aghast at the idea TX would open up and ditch masks.
> 
> So a month from now (3 weeks at this point) if tossing masks and opening up is a mistake the numbers should show it right?


So you are looking at cumulative numbers instead of the recent average?

Nice way to hide any March differences underneath a pile of December cases.

I am still disgusted by TX tossing the mask rule, and by CA opening dining.  I am not sure what you're trying to prove by comparing the two states, but both have bad policies this month.

SCC may be starting to tick back up.  Cases were up yesterday and today.  Should have been down because of the weekend.  We will know for sure in a week or two.

We opened indoor dining 2 weeks ago, in case you were wondering.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I am still disgusted by TX tossing the mask rule, and by CA opening dining.  I am not sure what you're trying to prove by comparing the two states, but both have bad policies this month.


Yawn.  Let us know when the bodies start piling up in the streets from the one size fits all policies.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So you are looking at cumulative numbers instead of the recent average?
> 
> Nice way to hide any March differences underneath a pile of December cases.
> 
> ...


If the European scenario holds true, anywhere which has roughly less than 50% (give or take 10%) seroprevalence (from either vaccine immunity or natural immunity) should see at least a bump in cases irrespective of policies, given the spreading variants. LA is over the Spain/Belgium threshold...scc is not.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If the European scenario holds true, anywhere which has roughly less than 50% (give or take 10%) seroprevalence (from either vaccine immunity or natural immunity) should see at least a bump in cases irrespective of policies, given the spreading variants. LA is over the Spain/Belgium threshold...scc is not.


Almost nowhere in the US is “less than 50%, give or take 10%” seroprevalence.

Oregon is at 3.8% confirmed.  You only catch about 1/5, so maybe 19% total infections.  Add in the 21% vaccinated, subtract the overlap, and you’re still almost at 40%.

Does that make them at risk?  They made it through the winter and went into decline at something below 19%.  For them, with their behavior, the base virus had an effective R < 1.23.  60% reduction in transmission or so.

Now they have close to 40%, and climbing.   Soon they’ll be at 50%.  (when 38% are vaccinated.)

Even for a variant with R0=5, that 60% reduction means effective R=2.  And herd immunity at 50%, where they will be in not too long.

But, with current behavior, I don’t think Oregon sees a significant spike from any variant which is vulnerable to the vaccine.

The Dakotas are the opposite.  They ran their seroprevalence right up to 60% or so.  effective R = 2.5.  Only a 17% reduction from behavior.

Give them a variant with R0=5, and their behavior only cuts it down to effective R= 4.16.  Without that behavior reduction, they end up needing a much higher level for herd immunity.  1- 1/R = .76.   Will happen around when they hit 40% vaccinated.   Almost the same.

If I did the math right, If you’ve gone through an R0=3 spike, you seem to be vulnerable to an R0=5 variant up until you have 40% or so vaccinated.  It doesn’t matter whether you infected your way through the spike or solved it with behavior.

Theoretically, the Dakotas could avoid a variant spike entirely by adopting different behavior for the next 2 months. That won’t happen.  The Dakotas will Dakota.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If the European scenario holds true, anywhere which has roughly less than 50% (give or take 10%) seroprevalence (from either vaccine immunity or natural immunity) should see at least a bump in cases irrespective of policies, given the spreading variants. LA is over the Spain/Belgium threshold...scc is not.


I was thinking the same thing. The states/regions that have done reasonably well, CO, WA, OR, Bay Area of CA are liable to see a bump up with the more infectious variant becoming dominant.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Almost nowhere in the US is “less than 50%, give or take 10%” seroprevalence.
> 
> Oregon is at 3.8% confirmed.  You only catch about 1/5, so maybe 19% total infections.  Add in the 21% vaccinated, subtract the overlap, and you’re still almost at 40%.
> 
> ...


Math is solid but europe seems to disagree. Finland and Norway made it through the winter too...now look at them. Czechia was praised for being the most conscientious in the world...they are one of the few places in the west that the hospital system actually did come close to collapse and had a third wave.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 17, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I was thinking the same thing. The states/regions that have done reasonably well, CO, WA, OR, Bay Area of CA are liable to see a bump up with the more infectious variant becoming dominant.


Question is how quickly the vaccines ramp up. As dad points out part of the problem is their vaccines are a ss. The seroprevalence count in Los Angeles raw in January was at 45%. Adjusted for self selection they adjusted down to just under 41%.  With vaccination and new infections we should be right in the 50% ballpark.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 17, 2021)

Here’s another thing to factor in. All South America right now is rising and Peru (which has been at the brink of economic collapse due to some of the harshest lockdowns in the world) is hitting new record highs.  So it’s happening there too

Mexico has plateaued. If it turns upward it may not affect SoCal and az too much due to the high seroprevalence but Texas might very well get hit again.If Mexico follows the same pattern as last year the border crisis could well merge into a covid crisis in the next month.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Math is solid but europe seems to disagree. Finland and Norway made it through the winter too...now look at them. Czechia was praised for being the most conscientious in the world...they are one of the few places in the west that the hospital system actually did come close to collapse and had a third wave.


Finland hasn't vaccinated 21% of their pop, and won't hit 40% for a while.

If Oregon were at 5% vaccinated, they'd be facing a bump, too.

The big weakness is the assumption that Oregon doesn't change behavior.  If they start acting like SD, they're in trouble.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Question is how quickly the vaccines ramp up. As dad points out part of the problem is their vaccines are a ss. The seroprevalence count in Los Angeles raw in January was at 45%. Adjusted for self selection they adjusted down to just under 41%.  With vaccination and new infections we should be right in the 50% ballpark.


Where do you get 50%?

Just pull the number out of thin air, or is there actual analysis behind it?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Where do you get 50%?
> 
> Just pull the number out of thin air, or is there actual analysis behind it?


It’s the estimation of the Seroprevalence in Spain and Belgium. The London school estimated Spain at 58% but the ministry of health has then at 46%


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s the estimation of the Seroprevalence in Spain and Belgium. The London school estimated Spain at 58% but the ministry of health has then at 46%


Ps. If seroprevalence in Los Angeles really was at 40 ish % in January it has to be near 50% by now with vaccination and new cases.

New York City is the test case. They were at close to 30% after the first wave. They didn’t have a major second wave but had to have added at least 20% by now and with vaccinations higher. If there’s a substantial rise in New York City either so seroprevalence numbers are wrong or something else is afoot...otherwise what we’d expect to see is worse case a plateau or very stubborn decline


----------



## dad4 (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s the estimation of the Seroprevalence in Spain and Belgium. The London school estimated Spain at 58% but the ministry of health has then at 46%


That’s where they are topping out, based on their infrastructure and their behavior.

Why would it not be higher or lower in other places with different infrastructure and different behavior?

Put another way, if you are at 60% already, that means a weak variant drove you to high seroprevalence.  Why are you assuming that a stronger variant won’t drive you even higher?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s where they are topping out, based on their infrastructure and their behavior.
> 
> Why would it not be higher or lower in other places with different infrastructure and different behavior?
> 
> Put another way, if you are at 60% already, that means a weak variant drove you to high seroprevalence.  Why are you assuming that a stronger variant won’t drive you even higher?


Because behavior doesn’t seem to have much impact. I thought Sweden was suppose to be the big bad state that went for herd immunity and Norway and Finland were the good guys that were careful?  At least that was the narrative. I agree infrastructure plus demographics and climate have a bigger impact that can drive the number different. I agree that stronger variants can drive that threshold higher and we might still see a rise in Spain or Belgium.  However if half the brush is gone, it makes it much harder for a fire to take off which is why Belgium has plateaued but unlike neighbors France Germany or Netherlands is not accelerating yet...it takes longer to get the fire started...and in the us as you and I predicted we are thus in a vaccine race against a third wave.  Where you and I disagree is on the degree of impact behavior has: all Europe is pretty much going to end in the same place as is all South America


----------



## dad4 (Mar 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Because behavior doesn’t seem to have much impact. I thought Sweden was suppose to be the big bad state that went for herd immunity and Norway and Finland were the good guys that were careful?  At least that was the narrative. I agree infrastructure plus demographics and climate have a bigger impact that can drive the number different. I agree that stronger variants can drive that threshold higher and we might still see a rise in Spain or Belgium.  However if half the brush is gone, it makes it much harder for a fire to take off which is why Belgium has plateaued but unlike neighbors France Germany or Netherlands is not accelerating yet...it takes longer to get the fire started...and in the us as you and I predicted we are thus in a vaccine race against a third wave.  Where you and I disagree is on the degree of impact behavior has: all Europe is pretty much going to end in the same place as is all South America


You can argue how much is infrastructure and how much is behavior, but Oregon has the same variant and about a third the case rate of the Dakotas.  It seems obvious that _something_ has an impact.


----------



## crush (Mar 18, 2021)

Bad News Yesterday=Good News Today

*Coronavirus: New cases and hospitalizations down more than 90% from highs in Orange County as of March 17*


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You can argue how much is infrastructure and how much is behavior, but Oregon has the same variant and about a third the case rate of the Dakotas.  It seems obvious that _something_ has an impact.


You are ignoring the third factor which is climate and weather. There’s a fourth too which is serendipity. 

Los Angeles did everything you wanted them too yet got a bad result for the worst costs in the nation. Finland and Norway pretty much escaped everything until now.  Czechia did everything right and the media fawned all over them and they are the worst in Europe. Everywhere in Europe will end the same regardless of government policy. If the distinguishing factor is do “everything right” plus don’t get a variant plus don’t have your government screw up vaccines and maybe you’ll avoid a bad outcome, well then 1/3 of your great formula is purely dependent on luck.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is clear and consistent in its social distancing recommendation: To reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus, people should remain at least six feet away from others who are not in their households. The guideline holds whether you are eating in a restaurant, lifting weights at a gym or learning long division in a fourth-grade classroom.
> The guideline has been especially consequential for schools, many of which have not fully reopened because they do not have enough space to keep students six feet apart.
> Now, spurred by a better understanding of how the virus spreads and a growing concern about the harms of keeping children out of school, some public health experts are calling on the agency to reduce the recommended distance in schools from six feet to three.
> *"It never struck me that six feet was particularly sensical in the context of mitigation," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "I wish the C.D.C. would just come out and say this is not a major issue."*
> ...


On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Almost nowhere in the US is “less than 50%, give or take 10%” seroprevalence.
> 
> Oregon is at 3.8% confirmed.  You only catch about 1/5, so maybe 19% total infections.  Add in the 21% vaccinated, subtract the overlap, and you’re still almost at 40%.
> 
> ...


And the R-squared, deaths vs. cases?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

crush said:


> Bad News Yesterday=Good News Today
> 
> *Coronavirus: New cases and hospitalizations down more than 90% from highs in Orange County as of March 17*


Same downward trend in Oregon


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Same downward trend in Oregon


Oregon and Washington have also partially reopened indoor dining.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s where they are topping out, based on their infrastructure and their behavior.
> 
> Why would it not be higher or lower in other places with different infrastructure and different behavior?
> 
> Put another way, if you are at 60% already, that means a weak variant drove you to high seroprevalence.  Why are you assuming that a stronger variant won’t drive you even higher?


Why are you assuming that a stronger variant will drive you even higher?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oregon and Washington have also partially reopened indoor dining.


I'm predicting case numbers up whether asymp or not.  Deaths will not significantly correlate.  The COVID tracking site is no longer posting recovery numbers.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are ignoring the third factor which is climate and weather. There’s a fourth too which is serendipity.
> 
> Los Angeles did everything you wanted them too yet got a bad result for the worst costs in the nation. Finland and Norway pretty much escaped everything until now.  Czechia did everything right and the media fawned all over them and they are the worst in Europe. Everywhere in Europe will end the same regardless of government policy. If the distinguishing factor is do “everything right” plus don’t get a variant plus don’t have your government screw up vaccines and maybe you’ll avoid a bad outcome, well then 1/3 of your great formula is purely dependent on luck.


So, Vermont has good numbers because of the gentle winters?  Is that also why Canada is doing 3X as good as the US?  Blame it all on cold weather sounds great, until you remember that Canada is kicking your ass.

I agree it is multifactoral.  But that’s the exact opposite of saying “nothing has an impact”.   Weather, covid policy, employment mode, and housing crowding all have an impact.

It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing.  It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases.  Same as New York in the 1800s.  That’s not luck.  It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Why are you assuming that a stronger variant will drive you even higher?


The herd immunity numbers will be lower for a less contagious version of the virus than for a stronger variant.  It’s what we may be seeing in New York City right now.  There are other possibilities that are worse including: immunity fades over time and vast numbers get reinfected (not much evidence for that right now) or the variant has mutated away from prior immunity (in which case vaccine or no we are all f’d).


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 18, 2021)

Interesting survey on perceptions by party.









						How misinformation is distorting COVID policies and behaviors
					

Jonathan Rothwell and Sonal Desai share new survey data demonstrating the relationship between misinformation, political bias, and policies during the COVID-19 pandemic.




					www.brookings.edu


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oregon and Washington have also partially reopened indoor dining.


Is there credit card data to show how much people are using indoor dining, or is it hard to disentangle from takeout orders?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, Vermont has good numbers because of the gentle winters?  Is that also why Canada is doing 3X as good as the US?  Blame it all on cold weather sounds great, until you remember that Canada is kicking your ass.
> 
> I agree it is multifactoral.  But that’s the exact opposite of saying “nothing has an impact”.   Weather, covid policy, employment mode, and housing crowding all have an impact.
> 
> It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing.  It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases.  Same as New York in the 1800s.  That’s not luck.  It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.


I think in the case of Canada and Vermont the issue there is few and no cities.  If your covid policies are dependent on housing then since we can’t turn on a dime it’s not really covid policy.  You could just as easily say the cities are f’d either way so why do anything.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Is there credit card data to show how much people are using indoor dining, or is it hard to disentangle from takeout orders?


Goalpost moved. You were the one complaining about any indoor dining.  Oregonians are surely at least as conscientious as the Germans.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, Vermont has good numbers because of the gentle winters?  Is that also why Canada is doing 3X as good as the US?  Blame it all on cold weather sounds great, until you remember that Canada is kicking your ass.
> 
> I agree it is multifactoral.  But that’s the exact opposite of saying “nothing has an impact”.   Weather, covid policy, employment mode, and housing crowding all have an impact.
> 
> It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing.  It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases.  Same as New York in the 1800s.  That’s not luck.  It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.


Ps Canada is plateaued at about 3000 cases per day right now.


----------



## watfly (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So you are looking at cumulative numbers instead of the recent average?
> 
> Nice way to hide any March differences underneath a pile of December cases.


Yes, of course we are.  That's our point, cumulative is all that matters at the end of the day.  Would you give your students a grade or judge their overall results based on only one test? or would you look at their cumulative work and the results of all their tests?

You can slice and dice time periods to your hearts content in an attempt to prove your point, but its only the overall results that matter.   Our whole point is that while some lockdown policies may have a temporary effect, over the long term the results are going to be virtually the same because Covid will always find its path.  I think many of us believe, based on the evidence, that restrictions only drag the pandemic out.  The only good reason for restrictions is to prevent spikes that overwhelm our hospitals.  Whereas, the economic and social impacts of restrictions are dramatic.

Of course, Covid is only a part of overall public health policy and there are many other impacts to consider...not that I'm going to convince you that we should consider costs/benefits.  Although, at least you've now become convinced, better late than never, that kids should be back in school.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.


Is it really "housing policy" that creates it? Or, do immigrants flow in from countries where our housing policy and opportunities to make a living are so great they will leave their homes for the opportunity to experience our housing policy. I'd say it's our insatiable desire for cheap labor and relatively open borders that drive it. All the housing policy in the world won't solve that.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Goalpost moved. You were the one complaining about any indoor dining.  Oregonians are surely at least as conscientious as the Germans.


I still believe that indoor dining and indoor dinner parties spread covid.  The CDC agrees.  Almost all epidemiologists agree.   This is not a controversial opinion.

I am amused that you say “moving the goalpost” when I talk about data gathering techniques.  Data gathering is a prerequisite for analysis.  If you want to think, you need something to think about.

Do I really need to clarify that a restaurant with very few customers spreads less covid than a restaurant that is full?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, Vermont has good numbers because of the gentle winters?  Is that also why Canada is doing 3X as good as the US?  Blame it all on cold weather sounds great, until you remember that Canada is kicking your ass.
> 
> I agree it is multifactoral.  But that’s the exact opposite of saying “nothing has an impact”.   Weather, covid policy, employment mode, and housing crowding all have an impact.
> 
> It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing.  It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases.  Same as New York in the 1800s.  That’s not luck.  It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.


So in summary, if the housing policy was in place long before the Covid policy was developed, one could conclude that it’s not the housing policy at fault, but the Covid policy.

Therefore a one size fits all Covid Policy is flawed for various reasons, one being the housing situation.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Is it really "housing policy" that creates it? Or, do immigrants flow in from countries where our housing policy and opportunities to make a living are so great they will leave their homes for the opportunity to experience our housing policy. I'd say it's our insatiable desire for cheap labor and relatively open borders that drive it. All the housing policy in the world won't solve that.


It’s the combination of being anti-housing and pro-family and pro-immigration.   We create and invite in more people than we are willing to build homes for.   As a result, we have crowded living situations which spread covid.

”Kick them all out” would work.   “Accept people as valuable members of the community” would work. 

”Pack them like sardines” does not work.  Right now, our policy is to pack them like sardines.  And it made us sick.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So in summary, if the housing policy was in place long before the Covid policy was developed, one could conclude that it’s not the housing policy at fault, but the Covid policy.
> 
> Therefore a one size fits all Covid Policy is flawed for various reasons, one being the housing situation.


That is exactly the case for a stricter covid policy in LA, and a looser policy in Humboldt.  And it’s a good argument.

It‘s also the case for building another million homes in LA so this doesn’t happen next time.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The herd immunity numbers will be lower for a less contagious version of the virus than for a stronger variant.  It’s what we may be seeing in New York City right now.  There are other possibilities that are worse including: immunity fades over time and vast numbers get reinfected (not much evidence for that right now) or the variant has mutated away from prior immunity (in which case vaccine or no we are all f’d).


What makes the variant stronger?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I still believe that indoor dining and indoor dinner parties spread covid.  The CDC agrees.  Almost all epidemiologists agree.   This is not a controversial opinion.
> 
> I am amused that you say “moving the goalpost” when I talk about data gathering techniques.  Data gathering is a prerequisite for analysis.  If you want to think, you need something to think about.
> 
> Do I really need to clarify that a restaurant with very few customers spreads less covid than a restaurant that is full?


So in other words you’d be in favor of indoor dining just so long as not that many people use it. Why then grouse about California opening up 25%?  Too high?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> What makes the variant stronger?


More contagious.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That is exactly the case for a stricter covid policy in LA, and a looser policy in Humboldt.  And it’s a good argument.
> 
> It‘s also the case for building another million homes in LA so this doesn’t happen next time.


Stricter policy in la did nothing. I thought you said the dakotas though were too loose and should be more like la?


----------



## watfly (Mar 18, 2021)

The Covid solution is simple.  Convert restaurants to temporary housing.  BOOM, problem solved.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It is looking like LA got screwed because of their lack of housing.  It turns out that crowded tenements are breeding grounds for respiratory diseases.  Same as New York in the 1800s.  That’s not luck.  It just means an awful housing policy can overwhelm good covid policy.


If you're assuming that COVID policies are good.  And they're not.  Mask are not regulated to achieve the intended effect.  Not surprising that cases are high when faulty mask are on the market....COSTCO!!  Crowds have always been potential breeding grounds for respiratory diseases.  In my 3 years on the U.S.S. Midway we never experienced any such diseases that jeopardized our mission or inhibited daily operations.  Awful housing policy?  Whatever, show me the correlation between corpse and cases.  Otherwise your math isn't worth the hysteria.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> More contagious.


More transmissible?  Yeah I get that.  I prefer evolutionary process.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

It basically all comes down to the South Africa variant at this point......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372568301084286977


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Stricter policy in la did nothing. I thought you said the dakotas though were too loose and should be more like la?


The Dakotas infected over half their population.  Yes.  They were too loose.  

It’s not like they were busy saving their economy.  They wouldn’t even wear masks.  They just didn’t want to have to have any rules.

LA would have been far above 45% if they had had Dakota policies.  Look at the population density.  ND+SD+MT+ID+WY+NB+KS have roughly the population of LA county, but spread over a half million square milles.  LA is literally 100 times as dense.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s the combination of being anti-housing and pro-family and pro-immigration.   We create and invite in more people than we are willing to build homes for.   As a result, we have crowded living situations which spread covid.
> 
> ”Kick them all out” would work.   “Accept people as valuable members of the community” would work.
> 
> ”Pack them like sardines” does not work.  Right now, our policy is to pack them like sardines.  And it made us sick.


I agree with some of what you said, but these statements sound naive.

"We create and invite in more people than we are willing to build homes for."

"Right now, our policy is to pack them like sardines."

This implies that those living in these conditions would "spread out" if they could. I believe the reality is that they will live with as many as the house can handle so that as many as possible have the opportunity to make a better life. They very likely lived in such close quarters in their home country. Also, I can't imagine we'd have any more success enforcing occupancy limits - house-to-house - than we do keeping undocumented immigrants from making it into the country.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The Dakotas infected over half their population.  Yes.  They were too loose.
> 
> It’s not like they were busy saving their economy.  They wouldn’t even wear masks.  They just didn’t want to have to have any rules.
> 
> LA would have been far above 45% if they had had Dakota policies.  Look at the population density.  ND+SD+MT+ID+WY+NB+KS have roughly the population of LA county, but spread over a half million square milles.  LA is literally 100 times as dense.


But yet, over time, pretty much everywhere in Europe is going to land within 10% of each other....the only determining factor maybe being how quickly the vaccine is rolled out in certain countries....some exceptions being (like in Oregon or Vermont in the US) maybe Portugal or Ireland (which still took a substantial hit, like Canada)....if they'd had the vaccine 3 months earlier Finland and Norway would have been in those exceptions too.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That is exactly the case for a stricter covid policy in LA, and a looser policy in Humboldt.  And it’s a good argument.
> 
> It‘s also the case for building another million homes in LA so this doesn’t happen next time.


Where in LA county do you think there is space to build a million homes?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The Dakotas infected over half their population.  Yes.  They were too loose.
> 
> It’s not like they were busy saving their economy.  They wouldn’t even wear masks.  They just didn’t want to have to have any rules.
> 
> LA would have been far above 45% if they had had Dakota policies.  Look at the population density.  ND+SD+MT+ID+WY+NB+KS have roughly the population of LA county, but spread over a half million square milles.  LA is literally 100 times as dense.


So the bodies should be stacking up.

*Less than 1%** of America’s population lives in long-term-care facilities, but as of March 4, 2021, this tiny fraction of the country accounts for 34% of US COVID-19 deaths.

24% for California.*











						The Long-Term Care COVID Tracker
					

To date, the Long-Term Care COVID Tracker is the most comprehensive dataset about COVID-19 in US long-term care facilities.




					covidtracking.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That is exactly the case for a stricter covid policy in LA, and a looser policy in Humboldt.  And it’s a good argument.
> 
> It‘s also the case for building another million homes in LA so this doesn’t happen next time.


What rubbish.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> What rubbish.


So DaD4 is saying lock all of these people in their homes packed in like sardines whilst also saying the fact that they are packed in like sardines is the reason Covid had such and impact on LA?

Yah...he’s starting to sound a bit like Newsome.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s the combination of being anti-housing and pro-family and pro-immigration.   We create and invite in more people than we are willing to build homes for.   As a result, we have crowded living situations which spread covid.
> 
> ”Kick them all out” would work.   “Accept people as valuable members of the community” would work.
> 
> ”Pack them like sardines” does not work.  Right now, our policy is to pack them like sardines.  And it made us sick.


Sardines in a can?  Try living on an Aircraft carrier for 6 months at a time.  No such hysteria Dad4.  Lots of historical evidence to refute the canned life style causes spread.  Sardines are actually good for you.  Especially the COSTCO pack in olive oil.  Fry them up with some white onions, add shoyu and vinegar (also good for you) and serve on a bed of brown rice.  Ono-licious.  Stinks up the house though.  But that's where my whole house COVID filtration system serves an unintended purpose.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So DaD4 is saying lock all of these people in their homes packed in like sardines whilst also saying the fact that they are packed in like sardines is the reason Covid had such and impact on LA?
> 
> Yah...he’s starting to sound a bit like Newsome.


Maybe Dad4 is Newsome?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So DaD4 is saying lock all of these people in their homes packed in like sardines whilst also saying the fact that they are packed in like sardines is the reason Covid had such and impact on LA?
> 
> Yah...he’s starting to sound a bit like Newsome.


The assumption as well is that the politicians and health experts are going to have the insight to time these lockdowns depending on the strength of variants (Dakota=should of lockdown like LA; LA shoulda locked down even tighter).  1. the experts themselves can't keep all the variants straight let alone what they do: UK/Austria variant, NY variant, California variant, South Africa variant, Brazil variant, Finland variant (note no China variant), 2. that the politicians can actually implement a policy that makes rationale sense in the pressure to do something instead of just use the hammer the entire time (like Los Angeles has done), and 3. that over time it's impossible to sustain (dad4 may be able to be holed up for 18 months, but for the average human being [let alone the 20 something unmarried male] isn't going to be able to keep it up over that time period).   All western governments have done a horrible job managing COVID with very rare exceptions (and those exceptions coming at a tremendous cost and in part based on serendipity)...the idea that they are going to time policies based on the severity of variants is laughable.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Where in LA county do you think there is soar to build a million homes?


Look up.  

A million homes in 10 story buildings would take about 10,000 acres, plus another 30,000 acres for parks and schools.  About 1.6% of the land area in LA county.   

Are taller apartment buildings really worse than what you’ve been through the last year?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look up.
> 
> A million homes in 10 story buildings would take about 10,000 acres, plus another 30,000 acres for parks and schools.  About 1.6% of the land area in LA county.
> 
> Are taller apartment buildings really worse than what you’ve been through the last year?


You obviously don’t live in LA.  Where are you gonna find that 40,000 acres?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So DaD4 is saying lock all of these people in their homes packed in like sardines whilst also saying the fact that they are packed in like sardines is the reason Covid had such and impact on LA?
> 
> Yah...he’s starting to sound a bit like Newsome.


I’ve been in favor of opening outdoor spaces since last summer.  Don’t blame that one on me.

Sorry if you don’t like it.  But nimby housing policies helped drive the LA pandemic.  Same for SJ and central valley, though in different ways.   

Essential workers would go between a crowded work environment and a crowded home environment, spreading covid from one to the other.

Places like Texas and Florida got away with much worse covid policies because they don’t have the crowded home environment.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look up.
> 
> A million homes in 10 story buildings would take about 10,000 acres, plus another 30,000 acres for parks and schools.  About 1.6% of the land area in LA county.
> 
> Are taller apartment buildings really worse than what you’ve been through the last year?


Depends where you build them and how much low rent housing is included.  I'm sure if they made the neighborhood around you looking like the building boom in Glendale, you'd be screaming NIMBY.



Kicker4Life said:


> You obviously don’t live in LA.  Where are you gonna find that 40,000 acres?


It's doable.  Look at what's happened to Glendale over the past 5 years.  The issue though is that type of investment is geared towards YUMPs and not towards Latino migrants.  The Latino migrants, even if they could afford those fancy new apartments, aren't going to shell out the money they are trying to save for it, and aren't going to agree to the strict per person housing occupancy limits that come in these new glitzy areas.  And there's no profit for developers to build really cheap buildings for the Latino migrants.  So the only thing you'd get is poor neighborhoods complaining they are being gentrified.  The only way to go that many units is for the government to massively spend to build such low income housing but if it happens in his neighborhood even dad will be screaming NIMBY....and you can't really segregate now these days without running into woke issues.  We tried the tenement low income housing, particularly on the east coast, a while back....it didn't work which is why mixed housing is all the rage...but then short of an area like Glendale which is attractive to both groups, it's really hard to pull off.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’ve been in favor of opening outdoor spaces since last summer.  Don’t blame that one on me.
> 
> Sorry if you don’t like it.  But nimby housing policies helped drive the LA pandemic.  Same for SJ and central valley, though in different ways.
> 
> ...


Previously you blamed it on people having house parties and not wearing masks....now it’s the age old housing policy that has been in existence for ages.  But you refuse to blame those who made the policy closing outdoor spaces in favor of “stay at home”?

You creat policy based on environment.  The housing situation was ignored in LA Co policy making so that’s on the policy makers!

As an aside, over $2billion was allocated several years ago to build low income housing. To date only about 10% of the housing has been built and the money is almost gone. In a recent audit the LA Co Controller discovered and called into question how it could cost over $700,000 PER 1000sqft apartment.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> You obviously don’t live in LA.  Where are you gonna find that 40,000 acres?


Same argument every city. “We are all built out.  There is no more land.”

Same answer, every city.  The land right there, under your feet.

If you change the zoning, it gets rebuilt.   Have you ever seen a single story neighborhood that is zoned for 10 stories?

Or, you can have high rates of disease every time we have a new pandemic.


----------



## watfly (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look up.
> 
> A million homes in 10 story buildings would take about 10,000 acres, plus another 30,000 acres for parks and schools.  About 1.6% of the land area in LA county.
> 
> Are taller apartment buildings really worse than what you’ve been through the last year?


Sounds like it would have to be public housing project, because many of us likely couldn't afford an apartment or condo with a view in LA.  Certainly not one for a whole family.

I'll pass on a public housing project because they've only created problems much worse than Covid and certainly don't resolve density issues.  So yes it is much worse than what we've been through in the last year.









						Public Housing Becomes the Latest Progressive Fantasy
					

A new generation of activists seeks to revive an old urban policy, despite its troubled history.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

It's a long article but it provides interesting insight on where technocrats like dad 4 are coming from.....








						The COVID Class War - Cause & Consequences
					

Discover the COVID class war between progressives and conservatives. Learn how lockdowns impact business owners and working professionals.




					www.tabletmag.com


----------



## watfly (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> As an aside, over $2billion was allocated several years ago to build low income housing. To date only about 10% of the housing has been built and the money is almost gone. In a recent audit the LA Co Controller discovered and called into question how it could cost over $700,000 PER 1000sqft apartment.


I was previously in the affordable housing business.   I detailed in a previous post why it doesn't work in California.  It would be easier to find a Unicorn than to build substantial affordable housing in California.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Previously you blamed it on people having house parties and not wearing masks....now it’s the age old housing policy that has been in existence for ages.  But you refuse to blame those who made the policy closing outdoor spaces in favor of “stay at home”?
> 
> You creat policy based on environment.  The housing situation was ignored in LA Co policy making so that’s on the policy makers!
> 
> As an aside, over $2billion was allocated several years ago to build low income housing. To date only about 10% of the housing has been built and the money is almost gone. In a recent audit the LA Co Controller discovered and called into question how it could cost over $700,000 PER 1000sqft apartment.


Subsidized housing is just liberals buying indulgences.   They pass laws that make it illegal to build homes, then spend billions of dollars on housing subsidies to make themselves feel better about forcing their neighbors into slums.   The subsidies don’t work, but they do make it look like you care.

I’m not taking about subsidized housing.  I’m talking about rezoning.  It’s free, and it actually solves the problem.

And yes, you can rezone my neighborhood, too.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Same argument every city. “We are all built out.  There is no more land.”
> 
> Same answer, every city.  The land right there, under your feet.
> 
> ...


So packing thousands of people into a high-rise with minimal ways to get up and down without interacting with others is going to solve the problem? So why was there such a high vacancy rate in New York City during this whole pandemic? We can go back-and-forth all day we obviously have a very different opinion on housing and Covid policy. Which is fine.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

watfly said:


> I was previously in the affordable housing business.   I detailed in a previous post why it doesn't work in California.  It would be easier to find a Unicorn than to build substantial affordable housing in California.


Agreed


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Subsidized housing is just liberals buying indulgences.   They pass laws that make it illegal to build homes, then spend billions of dollars on housing subsidies to make themselves feel better about forcing their neighbors into slums.   The subsidies don’t work, but they do make it look like you care.
> 
> I’m not taking about subsidized housing.  I’m talking about rezoning.  It’s free, and it actually solves the problem.
> 
> And yes, you can rezone my neighborhood, too.


Fortunately in my neighborhood and a vast majority of LA County the water table doesn’t allow the support structure needed for many of the high-rise buildings. I guess it’s a benefit of living near the beach.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Stricter policy in la did nothing. I thought you said the dakotas though were too loose and should be more like la?


You can’t put the pieces together on your own? Tight quarters + essential workers + many service industry workers = ?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Fortunately in my neighborhood and a vast majority of LA County the water table doesn’t allow the support structure needed for many of the high-rise buildings. I guess it’s a benefit of living near the beach.


You sure about that?  The water table in Chicago or Dubai is a feet feet down.  Last I checked, they have a few tall buildings.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You can’t put the pieces together on your own? Tight quarters + essential workers + many service industry workers = ?


Yeah, but you can't do anything about the remaining factors.  They are already baked into the cake.  "Have a better housing policy" is not a support for NPIs for COVID.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, but you can't do anything about the remaining factors.  They are already baked into the cake.  "Have a better housing policy" is not a support for NPIs for COVID.


Who said housing policy was an argument for NPI?

It only comes up because you keep using LA as an example of NPI failure.  LA is an example of partial NPI success being drowned out by an even larger housing policy failure.


----------



## crush (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Is there credit card data to show how much people are using indoor dining, or is it hard to disentangle from takeout orders?


They know what we're all doing,  24/7.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Who said housing policy was an argument for NPI?
> 
> It only comes up because you keep using LA as an example of NPI failure.  LA is an example of partial NPI success being drowned out by an even larger housing policy failure.


That's what's so sad about your argument.  Your idea of "success" is that 50% of LA came down with it, despite the strictist in the nation standard employed by Los Angeles, at a tremendous cost to children, small businesses, homelessness, crime and poverty.  If this is success, wow!

The conclusion would be that given the tremendous cost, maybe Los Angeles shouldn't have done much of anything....how much worse could it get....Stockholm?  New York City?   The other conclusion from it would be maybe these NPIs are fruitless in large mega cities, which were doomed anyways, but maybe could have made a difference in places like the Dakotas...given Finland, Estonia, and Norway I doubt it, but maybe.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look up.
> 
> A million homes in 10 story buildings would take about 10,000 acres, plus another 30,000 acres for parks and schools.  About 1.6% of the land area in LA county.
> 
> Are taller apartment buildings really worse than what you’ve been through the last year?


Ask New Yorkers.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look up.
> 
> A million homes in 10 story buildings would take about 10,000 acres, plus another 30,000 acres for parks and schools.  About 1.6% of the land area in LA county.
> 
> Are taller apartment buildings really worse than what you’ve been through the last year?


Yeah.  Let’s put millions more in 10 story buildings in earth quake prone Cali.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You can’t put the pieces together on your own? Tight quarters + essential workers + many service industry workers = ?


You poor fragile people.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's what's so sad about your argument.  Your idea of "success" is that 50% of LA came down with it, despite the strictist in the nation standard employed by Los Angeles, at a tremendous cost to children, small businesses, homelessness, crime and poverty.  If this is success, wow!
> 
> The conclusion would be that given the tremendous cost, maybe Los Angeles shouldn't have done much of anything....how much worse could it get....Stockholm?  New York City?   The other conclusion from it would be maybe these NPIs are fruitless in large mega cities, which were doomed anyways, but maybe could have made a difference in places like the Dakotas...given Finland, Estonia, and Norway I doubt it, but maybe.


If they had followed your advice, where would they have found staffing for the extra ICU beds you would need?  Or do you advocate no NPI and no extra nurses?

NPI itself was successful.  LA had a 45% infection rate when faced with a high R variant.    The infection rate was considerably lower than it would have been without NPI.   If LA had followed your advice and done no NPI, an 80% infection rate is not unlikely.   (Many states reached 60% or so, despite having an easier variant and more diffuse population.)

NY is partly running that experiment for us, right now.  They have open restaurants, the high R UK variant, and just announced they will open stadiums.  We will see what their seroprevalence (natural + vaccine) they have at peak.



Bruddah IZ said:


> Yeah.  Let’s put millions more in 10 story buildings in earth quake prone Cali.


The millions are here right now.  They cut your grass and fix your roof.  They live in quake-unsafe soft first story apartment buildings with the bedrooms over the carport.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If they had followed your advice, where would they have found staffing for the extra ICU beds you would need?  Or do you advocate no NPI and no extra nurses?
> 
> NPI itself was successful.  LA had a 45% infection rate when faced with a high R variant.    The infection rate was considerably lower than it would have been without NPI.   If LA had followed your advice and done no NPI, an 80% infection rate is not unlikely.   (Many states reached 60% or so, despite having an easier variant and more diffuse population.)
> 
> ...


At least now we are talking cost and benefits.  I don't happen to think the 80% rate is likely...it's not what happened in Madrid or Stockholm.  It's just likely we would have reached the 50% sooner than we did.  Whatever that difference is has to be weighed against the disastrous costs Los Angeles has taken on, including the harm to children.

And I'm not arguing for no NPIs.   That's not even the Swedish approach.  I think masks for indoor situations like grocery stores where people could be exposed for short periods of time are useful.  I also think "flattening the curve" is a good idea when the hospital situation is under tremendous strain and near collapse, and that business closures should be reserved for these key time periods (not keeping them in place 18 months as you seem to want, where an exhausted population just gives up on them....again few 20 something unmarried males are going to go 18 months without a booty call but if you tell everyone hey for this month we need you to cooperate they might actually do it).  LA did the opposite....it kept restrictions in place for a year.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Subsidized housing is just liberals buying indulgences.   They pass laws that make it illegal to build homes, then spend billions of dollars on housing subsidies to make themselves feel better about forcing their neighbors into slums.   The subsidies don’t work, but they do make it look like you care.
> 
> I’m not taking about subsidized housing.  I’m talking about rezoning.  It’s free, and it actually solves the problem.
> 
> And yes, you can rezone my neighborhood, too.


How is rezoning free and for whom?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> At least now we are talking cost and benefits.  I don't happen to think the 80% rate is likely...it's not what happened in Madrid or Stockholm.  It's just likely we would have reached the 50% sooner than we did.  Whatever that difference is has to be weighed against the disastrous costs Los Angeles has taken on, including the harm to children.
> 
> And I'm not arguing for no NPIs.   That's not even the Swedish approach.  I think masks for indoor situations like grocery stores where people could be exposed for short periods of time are useful.  I also think "flattening the curve" is a good idea when the hospital situation is under tremendous strain and near collapse, and that business closures should be reserved for these key time periods (not keeping them in place 18 months as you seem to want, where an exhausted population just gives up on them....again few 20 something unmarried males are going to go 18 months without a booty call but if you tell everyone hey for this month we need you to cooperate they might actually do it).  LA did the opposite....it kept restrictions in place for a year.


p.s. what we  know from the Belgium situation is that people adapt naturally in times of high crisis without the government having to issue NPIs.  They generally reduce mobility on their own.  Mobility in Belgium (and the bend in the new infection curves) fell almost 2 weeks before the government issued a new round of lockdowns in the winter.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The millions are here right now.  They cut your grass and fix your roof.  They live in quake-unsafe soft first story apartment buildings with the bedrooms over the carport.


I have zeroscape.  My roof is shake tin.  So no, they don’t do either for me.  And they don’t live in quake unsafe homes.  California doesn’t allow it.


----------



## crush (Mar 18, 2021)

*Be on the look out for "Murder Hornets" fellas.  First we had the Rona, now we got Hornets that can sting through a bee suit and murder you, just like that.    This is nuts!!!*


*Scientists in US, Canada gear up for battle against murder hornets*

Scientists in the U.S. and Canada are opening new fronts in the war against so-called murder hornets as the giant insects begin establishing nests this spring. 
"This is *not a species we want to tolerate here in the United States,*" said Sven-Erik Spichiger of the Washington state Department of Agriculture, which eradicated a nest of the Asian giant hornets last year. *"The Asian giant hornet is not supposed to be here."*

"*We may not get them all, but we will get as many as we can," *he said of eradication efforts this year.

Paul van Westendorp of the British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries said the hornets pose threats to human life, to valuable bee populations needed to pollinate crops and to other insects.

"It’s an absolutely serious danger to our health and well-being," he said. *"These are intimidating insects."*


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> I have zeroscape.  My roof is shake tin.  So no, they don’t do either for me.  And they don’t live in quake unsafe homes.  California doesn’t allow it.


Drive around.  You will see plenty of buildings from the 50s, 60s, and 70s that have bedrooms above the car port.

Yes, most should be retrofitted by now, but it is still less safe than new construction if any type.

You really believe you don't depend on immigrant labor.  What did you eat for lunch?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Drive around.  You will see plenty of buildings from the 50s, 60s, and 70s that have bedrooms above the car port.
> 
> Yes, most should be retrofitted by now, but it is still less safe than new construction if any type.
> 
> You really believe you don't depend on immigrant labor.  What did you eat for lunch?


Korean style Ramen.

I don't depend on immigrant labor.  If I like the quality of their work and the price is right, I hire them.  I hired the Russians to do my AC/Heater work, Mexicans to do paver  and zeroscape work.  I was very happy with both. 

 I haven't seen a lot of bedrooms over car ports.  Regardless, if a big one hits, I'd rather be one floor up then ten floors up. 

Burp!


----------



## crush (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Korean style Ramen.
> 
> I don't depend on immigrant labor.  If I like the quality of their work and the price is right, I hire them.  I hired the Russians to do my AC/Heater work, Mexicans to do paver  and zeroscape work.  I was very happy with both.
> 
> ...


I have a pal in the AC biz Bruddah.  Grace calls him AC Tech guy.  He does ER back up for a few of the big Home Warranty (HW)) companies when you buy a house. These companies are trip and they do NOT want to come out for emergencies and dont want to replace any of your appliance or ac unit or water heater for that matter if something were to fail the first year.  First off, the person buying the house thinks he has "everything" covered with his cheap plan.  My pal only gets a call when "The Russians" cant make it out, his words, not mine.  The HW company goes with the lowest avg ticket and the Russians beat him all the time on price.  I told him to lower his price to compete and says, "never."  His dad is from Mexico and his prices are perfect for OC.  He just can;t beat the Russians he says and I hear about it every freaking week.  Low ballers he calls them.  I told him you need to change your attitude and your price to compete bro.  He says, "I sell on value bro."  I told him price is important too, especially during Rona.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

crush said:


> I have a pal in the AC biz Bruddah.  Grace calls him AC Tech guy.  He does ER back up for a few of the big Home Warranty (HW)) companies when you buy a house. These companies are trip and they do NOT want to come out for emergencies and dont want to replace any of your appliance or ac unit or water heater for that matter if something were to fail the first year.  First off, the person buying the house thinks he has "everything" covered with his cheap plan.  My pal only gets a call when "The Russians" cant make it out, his words, not mine.  The HW company goes with the lowest avg ticket and the Russians beat him all the time on price.  I told him to lower his price to compete and says, "never."  His dad is from Mexico and his prices are perfect for OC.  He just can;t beat the Russians he says and I hear about it every freaking week.  Low ballers he calls them.  I told him you need to change your attitude and your price to compete bro.  He says, "I sell on value bro."  I told him price is important too, especially during Rona.


My Russians did excellent work.  Cleaned up everyday. They put my AHU in the attic which I thought was nuts and impossible to do!!  When it was all done I was amazed at how clean and un-obnoxious it all looked.  If I can afford that kind of value, OC should be okay?


----------



## crush (Mar 18, 2021)

Reminds me of my days selling Sparkletts water with my best pal Bruno in OC back in early 90s.  Yes folks, I lived a full life, full of adventure and misfortunate.  We were trained by the finest in class trainers ever.  The only problem was that these "trainers" never sold in the real world.  Meaning, door to door combat on PCH and all over socal.  In class trainig said to sell feature and benefits.  I cut to the chase and ask how much a bottle.  I swear these old Sparkletts guys from the 60s were saying dont give price out until you share where our water comes from and basically why you should pay full price at $8.50 a bottle.  Share how we get our water from Eagle Rock they said and 200 feet under the ground in a Artesian well he said.  I took the training and tried it and it didnt work.  Bottom line, how much a bottle they would ask?  I said, "How much you spending with Arrowhead?  He said $7.00, I said, $6.00.  That's how you close quickly and cut out all the BS!  I was #1 and asked to help teach the training class and it went ok.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> p.s. what we  know from the Belgium situation is that people adapt naturally in times of high crisis without the government having to issue NPIs.  They generally reduce mobility on their own.  Mobility in Belgium (and the bend in the new infection curves) fell almost 2 weeks before the government issued a new round of lockdowns in the winter.


I have posted plenty of charts showing case drops before mask mandates and case increases after mask mandates.  Fauci just hitch hikes on those trends because he knows who his sheep are.


----------



## crush (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> I have posted plenty of charts showing case drops before mask mandates and case increases after mask mandates.  Fauci just hitch hikes on those trends because he knows who his sheep are.


Bruddah, this is all one big trip.  I swear I went to the store and this nice guy says, "sir, sir sir, those carts are not wiped down yet."  I said, "I dont care."  He said, "Suit yourself."  I turned around and told him "thank you" for thinking of my safety and I I just dont think I can catch Rona this way.  We had a cool chat and he agreed and just doing his part to spread some love.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

crush said:


> Bruddah, this is all one big trip.  I swear I went to the store and this nice guy says, "sir, sir sir, those carts are not wiped down yet."  I said, "I dont care."  He said, "Suit yourself."  I turned around and told him "thank you" for thinking of my safety and I I just dont think I can catch Rona this way.  We had a cool chat and he agreed and just doing his part to spread some love.


The most adverse effect of the corona virus has been, by far, a softening of the brain.


----------



## crush (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The most adverse effect of the corona virus has been, by far, a softening of the brain.


What is common sense?  I know of five that man only cares about.  *Touch*, *sight*, *hearing*, *smell* and *taste.  *This is why folks only use less than 10% of their brain. Q me this Bruddah, where is the other 90% of the brain and why not work? DNA=Light. My advise for all is to get as much sun from the sunlight as possible.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The most adverse effect of the corona virus has been, by far, a softening of the brain.


And a half million deaths.  Softening of the brain, and 535,000 deaths.  

Or do you not like thinking about that part?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And a half million deaths.  Softening of the brain, and 535,000 deaths.
> 
> Or do you not like thinking about that part?


As long as we are piling on: economic ruin (there would have been without lockdowns but not as much), children (particularly less privileged ones) losing a year plus education and the inequity which results, the mental suffering put on people (particularly children), increased suicides, increased illnesses from lack of screening (my mother and bestie finally scheduled their 2+ year delayed no mammograms....earliest appointments they could get is June), increased OD and substance abuse, increased physical abuse of kids/spouses locked away with their loved ones.  The real question is how many of the 535,000 deaths are baked it (it's not even zero in Australia) and how much of this list is avoided without the NPIS (some of it would always be baked in too from just the pandemic existing).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And a half million deaths.  Softening of the brain, and 535,000 deaths.
> 
> Or do you not like thinking about that part?


I think about how you've avoided my multiple request to provide the R-squared for cases vs. deaths.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

*First, in order to explain away the clear failures of lockdowns and other alleged mitigation measures, the lockdowners have tried to pretend that Americans weren't really all that locked down after all, and that in any case Americans didn't really change their behavior all that much.

Atlas threw cold water on both of those claims:*

_Here's the unacknowledged reality: almost all states and major cities, with a handful of exceptions, have implemented severe restrictions for many months, including closures of businesses and in-person school, mobility restrictions and curfews, quarantines, limits on group gatherings, and mask mandates dating back to at least the summer.

And let’s clear up the myths about the behavior of Americans – social mobility tracking of Americans and data from Gallup, YouGov, the COVID-19 Consortium, and the CDC have shown significant reductions of movement as well as a consistently high percentage of mask wearing since the late summer, similar to Western European countries and approaching those in Asia._

He then proceeded to lay out some of the costs of lockdown, of which I offer a sample here:

_*A recent study confirms that *_*up to*_* 78% of cancers were never detected due to missed screening over three months. If one extrapolates to the entire country, up to a million new cases or more over nine months will have gone undetected. That health disaster adds to missed critical surgeries, chemotherapy, organ transplants, presentations of pediatric illnesses, heart attack and stroke patients too afraid to call emergency services, and others, all well documented.

Beyond hospital care, CDC reported four-fold increases in depression, three-fold increases in anxiety symptoms, and a doubling of suicidal ideation, particularly among young adults – college age – after the first few months of lockdowns, echoing the AMA reports of drug overdoses and suicides. An explosion of insurance claims for these psychological harms in children just verified this, doubling nationally since last year; and in the strictly locked down Northeast, there was a more than 300% increase of teenagers visiting doctors for self-harm.*

Domestic abuse and child abuse have been skyrocketing due to the isolation and specifically to the loss of jobs, particularly in the strictest lockdowns.

Was anybody even bothering to consider these effects?

That, said Atlas, was why someone like him needed to be part of the discussion:

To manage such a crisis, shouldn’t policymakers objectively consider both the virus harms and the totality of impact of policies? That’s the importance of health policy experts – my field – with a broader scope of expertise than that of epidemiologists and basic scientists. And that’s exactly why I was called to the White House – *there were zero health policy scholars on the Task Force; no one with a medical background who also considered the impacts of the policies was advising the White House.*

He also spoke about the policy of universal masking:

Regarding universal masks: 38 states have implemented general-population mask mandates, most since at least the summer, with almost all the rest having mandates in their major cities. Widespread, general-population mask usage has shown little empirical utility for stopping cases, even though that evidence has been censored by Twitter and Amazon. Widespread mask usage showed only minimal impact in Denmark’s randomized controlled study. Those are facts. And facts matter.

I posted a list where mask mandates empirically failed to stop cases, along with direct quotes, without any edit, from WHO, CDC, and Oxford University. That was censored by Twitter. And I stated numerous times that it would be irrational to wear a mask “when _alone_ riding a bicycle _outside_, when driving your own car _alone_, or when walking in the desert _alone_.” I stand by those words.

Those who charge that it is unethical, even dangerous, to question broad population mask mandates must not realize that several of the world’s top infectious disease scientists _and_ major public health organizations explicitly question the efficacy of general population masks. The public needs to know the truth.

For instance, Jefferson and Heneghan of University of Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine wrote: *“It would appear that despite two decades of pandemic preparedness, there is considerable uncertainty as to the value of wearing masks.” Oxford’s renowned epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta said there is no need for masks unless one is elderly or high risk. Stanford’s Jay Bhattacharya stated “mask mandates are not supported by the scientific data … there is no scientific evidence that mask mandates work to slow the spread of the disease.”

Throughout this pandemic until December, the WHO’s “Advice on the use of masks in the context of COVID-19” stated: “At present, there is no direct evidence (from studies on COVID-19 and in healthy people in the community) on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19.” In December, the WHO changed their wording to today’s “At present there is only limited and inconsistent scientific evidence to support the effectiveness of masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2.”*

The CDC, in a review of influenza pandemics, “did not find evidence that surgical-type face masks are effective in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission, either when worn by infected persons (source control) or by persons in the general community to reduce their susceptibility.” And until the WHO removed it on October 21, 2020 (almost immediately after Twitter censored my tweet highlighting the WHO quote), the WHO had written, *“At the present time, the widespread use of masks by healthy people in the community setting is not yet supported by high quality or direct scientific evidence and there are potential benefits and harms to consider.”*_

Atlas then slammed the academic community, particularly at Stanford (his home institution), which conducted itself appallingly in his case.

It's a great summary of the insanity.


----------



## crush (Mar 18, 2021)

This one about sums it up for me.  Dad with 4 kids?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It basically all comes down to the South Africa variant at this point......
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372568301084286977


Rand is a grandstander, it runs in the family. His father made far more sense, had an actual set of beliefs. Rand is just a selfish imp.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Same argument every city. “We are all built out.  There is no more land.”
> 
> Same answer, every city.  The land right there, under your feet.
> 
> ...


Ever been to Tokyo?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

crush said:


> What is common sense?  I know of five that man only cares about.  *Touch*, *sight*, *hearing*, *smell* and *taste.  *This is why folks only use less than 10% of their brain. Q me this Bruddah, where is the other 90% of the brain and why not work? DNA=Light. My advise for all is to get as much sun from the sunlight as possible.


Vitamin D.  The sunshine vitamin.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Same argument every city. “We are all built out.  There is no more land.”
> 
> Same answer, every city.  The land right there, under your feet.
> 
> ...


Globally, we’ve had over 12,000 pandemics since 1978.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As long as we are piling on: economic ruin (there would have been without lockdowns but not as much), children (particularly less privileged ones) losing a year plus education and the inequity which results, the mental suffering put on people (particularly children), increased suicides, increased illnesses from lack of screening (my mother and bestie finally scheduled their 2+ year delayed no mammograms....earliest appointments they could get is June), increased OD and substance abuse, increased physical abuse of kids/spouses locked away with their loved ones.  The real question is how many of the 535,000 deaths are baked it (it's not even zero in Australia) and how much of this list is avoided without the NPIS (some of it would always be baked in too from just the pandemic existing).


Fair question.  But you and I can't answer it.

The answer depends on things like " how much can you reduce transmission with a particular NPI?" and " what is the impact of an x percent reduction in transmission?".

Without a common view of those two questions, you can't begin to say how many deaths were inevitable.  And we do not share a view on either.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And a half million deaths.  Softening of the brain, and 535,000 deaths.
> 
> Or do you not like thinking about that part?


You’re good with numbers, can you please list the 2017 2018 2019 and then 2020 total deaths in the United States from all causes?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> You’re good with numbers, can you please list the 2017 2018 2019 and then 2020 total deaths in the United States from all causes?


Your search search engine works the same as mine.

Tends to be just under 3 million.  We are running about 20% over that.

Are you actually playing the "not many people have died" card?   I thought we had a serious discussion going here.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your search search engine works the same as mine.
> 
> Tends to be just under 3 million.  We are running about 20% over that.
> 
> Are you actually playing the "not many people have died" card?   I thought we had a serious discussion going here.


No....I understand why you assume that, but I’m looking for straight imperial data.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> You’re good with numbers, can you please list the 2017 2018 2019 and then 2020 total deaths in the United States from all causes?
> [/QUOT





dad4 said:


> Your search search engine works the same as mine.
> 
> Tends to be just under 3 million.  We are running about 20% over that.
> 
> Are you actually playing the "not many people have died" card?   I thought we had a serious discussion going here.


Me too.  How 'bout that r-squared that you've been avoiding like it was the Corona virus?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No....I understand why you assume that, but I’m looking for straight imperial data.


 Dad4 is siloed so good luck with that.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Don't mention it.  Should arrive tomorrow night.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No....I understand why you assume that, but I’m looking for straight imperial data.


Empirical?  Try the CDC website.

I have not found a good way to include the problem of late diagnosis of long term diseases.  It is important, but it isn't even clear which way it cuts.

Does late diagnosis mean we over-reacted, and scared people into  needlessly delayed screenings? 

Or does late diagnosis mean we under-reacted, and let the problem get so large it forced other things aside as we diverted resources to covid cases?

Or both?  

BIZ- why r-squared?  If you are correlating to an exponential growth rate, even a small change can be very significant.  Even if it looks small, you have to actually run it forward in the model before you can dismiss it.

 I've been paying more attention to p values in the CDC studies.   Like when they say restaurants are linked to higher covid cases with p<0.01 .


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Empirical?  Try the CDC website.
> 
> I have not found a good way to include the problem of late diagnosis of long term diseases.  It is important, but it isn't even clear which way it cuts.
> 
> ...


Maybe do some qualitative analysis.  But you're siloed so your hysteria is pretty easy to dismiss.  Due process has been denied because of your ilks cowardice.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Rand is a grandstander, it runs in the family. His father made far more sense, had an actual set of beliefs. Rand is just a selfish imp.


Really?  He got the better of fauci in that exchange. Forced him to basically only the South Africa variant is a concern, got him to say basically any new variant needs new protocols so masking forever and ended with “I disagree”.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Fair question.  But you and I can't answer it.
> 
> The answer depends on things like " how much can you reduce transmission with a particular NPI?" and " what is the impact of an x percent reduction in transmission?".
> 
> Without a common view of those two questions, you can't begin to say how many deaths were inevitable.  And we do not share a view on either.


The point is the lockdowners have avoided these questions entirely. What’s more many can’t be answered by just fauci but need to be answered by economists, social workers, addiction specialists, pediatricians and psychologists.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The point is the lockdowners have avoided these questions entirely. What’s more many can’t be answered by just fauci but need to be answered by economists, social workers, addiction specialists, pediatricians and psychologists.


Mic Drop


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The point is the lockdowners have avoided these questions entirely. What’s more many can’t be answered by just fauci but need to be answered by economists, social workers, addiction specialists, pediatricians and psychologists.


What the lockdowners can't explain is that why a yr into it why does TX, FL, CA all have roughly the same numbers.

@dad4  likes to say why look at just 3 states? I say those 3 states have about 90 million people...enough to say CA screwed the pooch. They may as well have sent kids to school and had biz open. They got nothing from the closure covid related, but screwed kids, the poor, biz etc..all while ending up in the same place as TX/FL who did the opposite.

If 90 million people is not a large enough sample size what pray tell is???


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> *What the lockdowners can't explain is that why a yr into it why does TX, FL, CA all have roughly the same numbers.*
> 
> @dad4  likes to say why look at just 3 states? I say those 3 states have about 90 million people...enough to say CA screwed the pooch. They may as well have sent kids to school and had biz open. They got nothing from the closure covid related, but screwed kids, the poor, biz etc..all while ending up in the same place as TX/FL who did the opposite.
> 
> If 90 million people is not a large enough sample size what pray tell is???


Southern CA has a worse variant and more cramped housing.  These two offset much, but not all, of the benefit of having better covid policies.

CA north of Sacramento, Oregon, and Washington do not have these problems and look much better.

There.  Now you have an explanation.  Are you going to think about it this time, or will you keep pretending the explanation doesn’t exist?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The point is the lockdowners have avoided these questions entirely. What’s more many can’t be answered by just fauci but need to be answered by economists, social workers, addiction specialists, pediatricians and psychologists.


That’s why Trump brought in Atlas.  He is well published in the Public Policy Arena.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Southern CA has a worse variant and more cramped housing.  These two offset much, but not all, of the benefit of having better covid policies.
> 
> CA north of Sacramento, Oregon, and Washington do not have these problems and look much better.
> 
> There.  Now you have an explanation.  Are you going to think about it this time, or will you keep pretending the explanation doesn’t exist?


What’s worse about the alleged variant?


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> What’s worse about the alleged variant?


His explanation as to why his preferred policy fails changes constantly.

By the way FL in theory also has a worse variant vs the typical one in the US.

The goal post is apparently not set. It varies constantly.

He and others can't really explain why their policy prescriptions don't work in the real world. They talk models/math...but when we look at actual data the story is different.

One can deal in theory. The successful people adapt to real world data.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> What’s worse about the alleged variant?


Alleged?  It’s been sequenced and they test for it.








						Southern California Is Origin of New COVID-19 Variant
					

A new variant of COVID-19 found in Southern California is coursing across the United States and around the world, a new study finds.




					www.webmd.com
				




The problem is higher R.  Same problem as the UK variant, but different mutations that cause it.


----------



## espola (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Alleged?  It’s been sequenced and they test for it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Can you believe I used to think Izzy was one of the smart guys here?  But I used to debate a guy on a math forum who thought there was something wrong with the definition of the number 7.


----------



## espola (Mar 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Really?  He got the better of fauci in that exchange. Forced him to basically only the South Africa variant is a concern, got him to say basically any new variant needs new protocols so masking forever and ended with “I disagree”.


Got the better of him?  Paul was acting like a bully (a privilege Senators have enjoyed since the advent of televised hearings), not allowing Fauci to answer his question (that was really more of a speech than a question).  I'm guessing you didn't watch the whole thing where a different Senator politely allowed him to make a full response.









						Rand Paul challenges Dr. Fauci (again)  - CNN Video
					

Republican senator from Kentucky Rand Paul challenged Dr. Fauci on why Americans should wear masks after being vaccinated during a Senate hearing. Dr. Fauci responded that wearing masks after vaccination would be a good practice considering the unknown potential of Covid-19 variants spreading in...




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

espola said:


> Got the better of him?  Paul was acting like a bully (a privilege Senators have enjoyed since the advent of televised hearings), not allowing Fauci to answer his question (that was really more of a speech than a question).  I'm guessing you didn't watch the whole thing where a different Senator politely allowed him to make a full response.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I’ll pull a fauci and say “I disagree”


----------



## dad4 (Mar 18, 2021)

Paul asked the wrong question, Fauci tried to clearly explain why it was the wrong question, and Paul cut him off.  

Not only was Paul wrong, but he was rude while being wrong.  That is no way to treat someone who is there as a resource to help you.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Paul asked the wrong question, Fauci tried to clearly explain why it was the wrong question, and Paul cut him off.
> 
> Not only was Paul wrong, but he was rude while being wrong.  That is no way to treat someone who is there as a resource to help you.


Fauci is not there as a resource to help him. His function is to justify and defend the recommendations coming out of us public health. Paul’s function is to raise questions and concerns about said recommendations


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci is not there as a resource to help him. His function is to justify and defend the recommendations coming out of us public health. Paul’s function is to raise questions and concerns about said recommendations


Nonsense.  Paul's function is to get re-elected.  His antics are aimed at the hearts (but not the minds) of his base.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Nonsense.  Paul's function is to get re-elected.  His antics are aimed at the hearts (but not the minds) of his base.


Fair but you mistake his function for his purpose. His function is supposed to be to scrutinize the executive branch. It’s why they hold these hearings.  There isn’t a covid bill here...they aren’t legislating...they are using the congressional oversight power. His purposes, like all other politicians, is to get re-elected.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fair but you mistake his function for his purpose. His function is supposed to be to scrutinize the executive branch. It’s why they hold these hearings.  There isn’t a covid bill here...they aren’t legislating...they are using the congressional oversight power. His purposes, like all other politicians, is to get re-elected.


If Paul wanted to find out the facts, he should have let Fauci answer.  He's just playing the bully so the wanna-be tough guys looking on can say "Paul really got Fauci there".


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 19, 2021)

I believe Fauci was wrong about this (from NYTimes)



*One jab is doing the job*​

The global leaders in Covid-19 vaccination rates are Israel and the United Arab Emirates. After them come a handful of countries that have each given between 30 and 45 shots for every 100 residents, including the United States, Britain, Bahrain, Chile and Serbia.​






​


But these handful of countries have followed two different strategies. The U.S. and most others have tried to make sure that anybody who gets a first vaccine shot gets the second shot within a few weeks (except in the case of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which requires only one shot). Britain has instead maximized the number of people who receive one “jab,” as the British call it — and has delayed the second jab, often for about three months.​

Kate Bingham, a venture capitalist who led the committee that advised the British government on vaccination, has described the strategy this way: “I think it’s the right public health response, which is to show that you try and vaccinate as many people as possible, as soon as possible. Better to protect everybody a bit rather than to vaccinate fewer people to give them an extra 10 percent protection.”​

So far, the data suggest that Britain’s approach is working — because even a single shot provides strong protection against the virus.​

*A delay seems OK*​

As Dr. Robert Wachter of the University of California, San Francisco, has written, “According to most vaccine experts, delaying shot #2 by a few months is unlikely to materially diminish the ultimate effectiveness of two shots.”​

In Britain, the daily number of new Covid cases has fallen by more than 90 percent since peaking in early January. The decline is larger than in virtually any other country. (In the U.S., new cases have fallen 79 percent since January.) Given that the contagious B.1.1.7 variant was first discovered in Britain and is now the country’s dominant virus form, “Britain’s free-fall in cases is all the more impressive,” Wachter told me. “Clearly their vaccination strategy has been highly effective.”​

British deaths have also plummeted in recent weeks:​


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> If Paul wanted to find out the facts, he should have let Fauci answer.  He's just playing the bully so the wanna-be tough guys looking on can say "Paul really got Fauci there".


The other alternative is he really just dislikes fauci and has contempt for what he’s saying and wants to show him up for not knowing what he’s talking about


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)




----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The other alternative is he really just dislikes fauci and has contempt for what he’s saying and wants to show him up for not knowing what he’s talking about


I can see where you might be impressed by that.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I can see where you might be impressed by that.


I can see why you wouldn’t. Fauci has been wrong about pretty much the majority of stuff he’s said and you’ve just followed him along


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Alleged?  It’s been sequenced and they test for it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"The variant now makes up nearly half of COVID-19 cases in Southern California."









						Southern California Is Origin of New COVID-19 Variant
					

A new variant of COVID-19 found in Southern California is coursing across the United States and around the world, a new study finds.




					www.webmd.com
				





*Does the variant make up half the deaths in So Cal?  How do they test for "it"?*


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Can you believe I used to think Izzy was one of the smart guys here?


Did you get smarter?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10429


I don't see Dad o 4.  Was it Mark Twain that said "it's easier to convince a man that he's a fool than to convince him he's been fooled?"


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Paul asked the wrong question, Fauci tried to clearly explain why it was the wrong question, and Paul cut him off.
> 
> Not only was Paul wrong, but he was rude while being wrong.  That is no way to treat someone who is there as a resource to help you.


Shocking.


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> I don't see Dad o 4.  Was it Mark Twain that said "it's easier to convince a man that he's a fool than to convince him he's been fooled?"


Do you see Espola?  I see EOTL and Long Game.  I think i also see Husker.  Listen, tickets to see the truth is free, you just need to believe.  Everyone has the choice to live a lie ((Darkness)) or live in the truth ((Light)).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Nonsense.  Paul's function is to get re-elected.  His antics are aimed at the hearts (but not the minds) of his base.


See heartfelt response above.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I can see why you wouldn’t. Fauci has been wrong about pretty much the majority of stuff he’s said and you’ve just followed him along


I have an open mind about Fauci.  I recognize that he spent most of a year in a difficult position - trying to speak the truth while standing directly behind a man who was telling obvious self-serving lies.  I don't have enough expertise in his specialty to judge the accuracy or intent of his positions, but I disagree that he has been wrong about pretty much the majority of stuff he’s said.


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)

Moo, moo, moo!!!!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 19, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> What the lockdowners can't explain is that why a yr into it why does TX, FL, CA all have roughly the same numbers.
> 
> @dad4  likes to say why look at just 3 states? I say those 3 states have about 90 million people...enough to say CA screwed the pooch. They may as well have sent kids to school and had biz open. They got nothing from the closure covid related, but screwed kids, the poor, biz etc..all while ending up in the same place as TX/FL who did the opposite.
> 
> If 90 million people is not a large enough sample size what pray tell is???


All the mathematical models in the world aren't worth a damn if they can't predict what will happen. I'm not denying epidemiologists are experts, but with COVID they are about as successful as stock pickers - right more often than the general population, but regularly wrong. The most recent example is Fauci's guidance that we shouldn't delay the 2nd shot. It's likely thousands more will die because of this. It's not because he's a bad guy. I believe he wanted what was best. However, there's no denying that he appears to be wrong and people will die because of it.

Then you have the historians who know math that sit around and look for correlations as to why their preferred policy wasn't successful and then blame it on "people" while ignoring the responsibility of leaders to lead people. Boring and useless. To lead, one must know who "we" are. Short of a Chinese-style lockdown, we are going to have to look at where we can mitigate risk and focus on that.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

crush said:


> Do you see Espola?  I see EOTL and Long Game.  I think i also see Husker.  Listen, tickets to see the truth is free, you just need to believe.  Everyone has the choice to live a lie ((Darkness)) or live in the truth ((Light)).


For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear.


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I have an open mind about Fauci.  I recognize that he spent most of a year in a difficult position - trying to speak the truth while standing directly behind a man who was telling obvious self-serving lies.  I don't have enough expertise in his specialty to judge the accuracy or intent of his positions, but I disagree that he has been wrong about pretty much the majority of stuff he’s said.


Dude, seriously, dude, bro, I mean, what's up Doc?


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Did you get smarter?


With respect to my debates with the guy who felt there was something wrong about the number 7, I learned that it is pointless to argue with fools.  I "got smarter" when I realized it was just as pointless to argue with you.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I have an open mind about Fauci.  I recognize that he spent most of a year in a difficult position - trying to speak the truth while standing directly behind a man who was telling obvious self-serving lies.  I don't have enough expertise in his specialty to judge the accuracy or intent of his positions, but I disagree that he has been wrong about pretty much the majority of stuff he’s said.


That’s funny.  You’ve said basically you are open to critiquing him but as far as I know have never done so, taking the deferring to the experts cop out. But then you justify it with “orange man bad”.

At least the wall is shattered a bit. If espola is at “I have an open mind” about fauci, faucis star must really be on the fall.


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear.


Paul wrote to the young Timothy to help him out with believers who wanted milk toast and the sugar coated lies.  Paul said some disciples would gather themselves "teachers" to tell them what they want to hear, not what they need to hear, which is the truth.  Truth hurts baby but is needed to clean out the sin.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> All the mathematical models in the world aren't worth a damn if they can't predict what will happen. I'm not denying epidemiologists are experts, but with COVID they are about as successful as stock pickers - right more often than the general population, but regularly wrong. The most recent example is Fauci's guidance that we shouldn't delay the 2nd shot. It's likely thousands more will die because of this. It's not because he's a bad guy. I believe he wanted what was best. However, there's no denying that he appears to be wrong and people will die because of it.
> 
> Then you have the historians who know math that sit around and look for correlations as to why their preferred policy wasn't successful and then blame it on "people" while ignoring the responsibility of leaders to lead people. Boring and useless. To lead, one must know who "we" are. Short of a Chinese-style lockdown, we are going to have to look at where we can mitigate risk and focus on that.


I must read different news sources than you do, since I am not aware of how Fauci's advice about the second shot will cause people to die.  Why do you believe that?


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I must read different news sources than you do, since I am not aware of how Fauci's advice about the second shot will cause people to die.  Why do you believe that?


Liar!!!!


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)




----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s funny.  You’ve said basically you are open to critiquing him but as far as I know have never done so, taking the deferring to the experts cop out. But then you justify it with “orange man bad”.
> 
> At least the wall is shattered a bit. If espola is at “I have an open mind” about fauci, faucis star must really be on the fall.


I have deliberately stayed out of the "fauci man bad" debates because I don't have the knowledge to feel comfortable on the topic or the inclination to learn more about it.  Despite that, I have observed that several posters on the topic are predictably practicing partisan advocacy whenever he makes any statement they don't like.


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I have deliberately stayed out of the "fauci man bad" debates because I don't have the knowledge to feel comfortable on the topic or the inclination to learn more about it.  Despite that, I have observed that several posters on the topic are predictably practicing partisan advocacy whenever he makes any statement they don't like.


Liar!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I have an open mind about Fauci.  I recognize that he spent most of a year in a difficult position - trying to speak the truth while standing directly behind a man who was telling obvious self-serving lies.  I don't have enough expertise in his specialty to judge the accuracy or intent of his positions, but I disagree that he has been wrong about pretty much the majority of stuff he’s said.


Who's talking majority of things Fauci said?  I ask Dadof 4-squared to justify the mainstream case hysteria with deaths and he scampers off to P-values while ignoring Due process.  That's one thing.  I ask why government regulates to put people out of business while not regulating the types of mask people use to stop the spread.  Most mask don't meet the requirements.  Beyond fashion that is.  How do you ejaculate case numbers without acknowledging that the mask wearing policy was grossly flawed according to OSHA standards even?  Now there is talk of 3 ft. social distancing when the variants are allegedly more deadly.  I always thought you were smart.  But your mind is anything but open.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> With respect to my debates with the guy who felt there was something wrong about the number 7, I learned that it is pointless to argue with fools.  I "got smarter" when I realized it was just as pointless to argue with you.


I didn't hear an argument?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I have deliberately stayed out of the "fauci man bad" debates because I don't have the knowledge to feel comfortable on the topic or the inclination to learn more about it.  Despite that, I have observed that several posters on the topic are predictably practicing partisan advocacy whenever he makes any statement they don't like.


If you lack the knowledge to make a judgment then how do you know trump was wrong?  Basically your argument comes down to trust the expert and orange man bad.  I love it when you of all people throw the partisan card when you are acting in a partisan manner yourself. But as I’ve said in the past I’ll give you credit for just being lost rather than being deliberate false.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I must read different news sources than you do, since I am not aware of how Fauci's advice about the second shot will cause people to die.  Why do you believe that?


Below is where Fauci disagrees with Britain's plan to delay the 2nd shot. Earlier today I posted a NYTimes article indicating the success of Britain's delay of the 2nd dose.









						Dr Anthony Fauci says US will not delay second doses of Covid vaccine
					

American infectious disease expert disagrees with UK’s plans to prioritise first doses




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Below is where Fauci disagrees with Britain's plan to delay the 2nd shot. Earlier today I posted a NYTimes article indicating the success of Britain's delay of the 2nd dose.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


He wants ALL children to be Vaxed first.  So nice of them caring for the kids like that.


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s funny.  You’ve said basically you are open to critiquing him but as far as I know have never done so, taking the deferring to the experts cop out. But then you justify it with “orange man bad”.
> 
> At least the wall is shattered a bit. If espola is at “I have an open mind” about fauci, faucis star must really be on the fall.


You frequently assert that the experts are almost always wrong.

But you tend not to back it up.

So far, among early recommendations, 

masks +
surfaces -
school and store closures -
bar, restaurant, and stadium closures +
stay outside delayed +

Overall, about half of the very early recommendations held up as solid policy.  Given how little was known last March, that is pretty good.  

The big fail was nursing home re-admits.  I don’t know how much of that was bad advice, and how much was a political decision to help out a constituent industry.  But it was certainly a horrible decision.

Compare the experts to the politicians.  Last March, politicians were saying things like “it will be over by Easter.”.  So sad, really.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You frequently assert that the experts are almost always wrong.
> 
> But you tend not to back it up.
> 
> ...


Wrong:
Nursing homes
Ny is the roll model
Masks (and that they are better than vaccines)
Florida will be a disaster (umpteen times)
Winter surge will cause hospitals to collapse
Little money allocated to treatments
Surface transmission
The models
The dancing on herd immunity thresholds. 
Double v single vaccine dose
Masks after vaccines
His own failures in mask usage
Small gatherings 4th of july
Schools, backtracking to reopen, then defending teachers union cave
Youth sports
Europe

and I’m not keeping some List here. That’s just spitballing off the top of my head.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Below is where Fauci disagrees with Britain's plan to delay the 2nd shot. Earlier today I posted a NYTimes article indicating the success of Britain's delay of the 2nd dose.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It appears that there is some complicated calculus between the wider distribution of the first shot and the increased effectiveness of having both shots.  It is clear which way will result in more deaths.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you lack the knowledge to make a judgment then how do you know trump was wrong?  Basically your argument comes down to trust the expert and orange man bad.  I love it when you of all people throw the partisan card when you are acting in a partisan manner yourself. But as I’ve said in the past I’ll give you credit for just being lost rather than being deliberate false.


Did you drink, inhale, or inject any bleach when t suggested that?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wrong:
> Nursing homes
> Ny is the roll model
> Masks (and that they are better than vaccines)
> ...


That’s quite a list.  And half of it it totally irrelevant.

I would not call it a list that proves that experts are wrong.  Fauci took his mask off at a baseball game, therefore the experts are wrong?

Europe was stupid in September, therefore the experts were wrong to praise their April policies?

It’s not a list of times the experts were wrong.  It’s a list of things Grace doesn’t like.

And on some of it, you are just wrong.  Masks after vaccines sound silly.  But they make sense if you are trying to slow down a vaccine-resistant variant.  Guess what?  We are trying to slow down more than one vaccine resistant variant.  The more we can delay any variant peak, the more likely we can handle it with a booster shot instead of a shutdown.


I tend to agree with the single shot advocates, but the experts seem split on that one.  It gets into things I don’t understand, like whether a widespread single shot increases the prevalence of vaccine resistance.  Either way it turns out, half the experts on that are right and half are wrong.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Did you drink, inhale, or inject any bleach when t suggested that?


You know as well as I do he never told people to drink bleach. If you really say that’s true produce the quote. It doesn’t exist.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s quite a list.  And half of it it totally irrelevant.
> 
> I would not call it a list that proves that experts are wrong.  Fauci took his mask off at a baseball game, therefore the experts are wrong?
> 
> ...


He’s just wrong. And that’s before we get to his poor media management and bloated sense of self importance.  And I left a bunch of controversial stuff too off the list like indoor dining because that one is very nuanced and complicated, or the ifr and mask flip flops, because you’ll just claim evolving information.

more than one vaccine resistant variety?  Which ones?  Fauci basically said it was South Africa so the argument rises and falls with that one and the proof. Slowing down variants btw is ridiculous as long as the rest of the world, particularly Latin America, is a vaccine ss and the borders of the us are open (let alone the crisis which is developing there which is on Biden). Where’s fauci on his criticism of the border if he’s so concerned about new variants getting into the us?  How’d we get the uk variant anyway if travel is supposed to be restricted?   Why isn’t it in the uk only where it’s suppose to be?.  Btw I didn’t put the trump air shutdowns on the list because fauci defended them,even if one could say with relative lack of enthusiasm.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He’s just wrong. And that’s before we get to his poor media management and bloated sense of self importance.  And I left a bunch of controversial stuff too off the list like indoor dining because that one is very nuanced and complicated, or the ifr and mask flip flops, because you’ll just claim evolving information.
> 
> more than one vaccine resistant variety?  Which ones?  Fauci basically said it was South Africa so the argument rises and falls with that one and the proof. Slowing down variants btw is ridiculous as long as the rest of the world, particularly Latin America, is a vaccine ss and the borders of the us are open (let alone the crisis which is developing there which is on Biden). Where’s fauci on his criticism of the border if he’s so concerned about new variants getting into the us?  How’d we get the uk variant anyway if travel is supposed to be restricted?   Why isn’t it in the uk only where it’s suppose to be?.  Btw I didn’t put the trump air shutdowns on the list because fauci defended them,even if one could say with relative lack of enthusiasm.


Indoor dining is controversial?

p<0.01 

That’s highly significant.  No controversy on this one.  

You may not like the fact that indoor dining spreads covid.  Ok.  I don’t like it either.  But that doesn’t change whether it is true.


Variants:

The four variants with a moderate ability to evade the vaccine are SA, P.1, and the two socal ones.









						CDC, WHO Create Threat Levels for COVID Variants
					

New designation levels will help clarify what's known about circulating viruses, and then help explain risk.




					www.webmd.com
				




There is also some evidence that anything with E383K may be a problem.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You know as well as I do he never told people to drink bleach. If you really say that’s true produce the quote. It doesn’t exist.


Here you go:

”I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning.  As you see it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that.”

Trying to deny something that was on national TV?  Pathetic really.  So sad.  She’s not in a good place with the truth right now.  You really hope she’ll learn to do better.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Here you go:
> 
> ”I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning.  As you see it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that.”
> 
> Trying to deny something that was on national TV?  Pathetic really.  So sad.  She’s not in a good place with the truth right now.  You really hope she’ll learn to do better.


Wow way to bend the truth there.  You're better than that to sink to Husker/espola level.  You know as well as I do he was talking about speculative future remedies (the same with UV light).  It was idiotic, and showed a complete lack of understanding of reality, but no where in there does he tell people to drink bleach.  The word bleach isn't even used.  Sad....I have more respect for you that that.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Indoor dining is controversial?
> 
> p<0.01
> 
> ...


I thought the Brazil variant thing had been discounted (or was well on it's way to being discounted)?









						Covid jabs  more effective against Brazil variant than feared
					

The Oxford University study found  its vaccine and the jab made by Pfizer perform as well against the P.1 strain that first emerged in Manaus just as they do against the Kent variant.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




Even Fauci basically just came down to the South Africa variant.  The SoCal variant thing is news to me, but it belies real world experience.  If so, we should be seeing a rash of reinfections and given our summer levels, we would be way under the reported 40% immunity levels in Los Angeles, which means the curve shouldn't be behaving as it is.  What's worse, if true, NorCal is in for a world of hurt over the next months since vaccinations may not be doing as much to slow down the rate of growth as thought.  I just don't see the real world support for this conclusion.  The New York variant might be a different story, I'll give you that.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow way to bend the truth there.  You're better than that to sink to Husker/espola level.  You know as well as I do he was talking about speculative future remedies (the same with UV light).  It was idiotic, and showed a complete lack of understanding of reality, but no where in there does he tell people to drink bleach.  The word bleach isn't even used.  Sad....I have more respect for you that that.


Perhaps I have higher standards than you for how a president uses the rhetorical power of his office.

Sure.  He did not tell anyone to drink bleach.  He openly mused about injecting disinfectant, while on national TV.

Sad really.  No clue what his job was or how he was supposed to go about it.  A real shame.  Such a wasted opportunity.  I should give him a nickname.  Dimwit Donald.

-TheRealDad4


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Perhaps I have higher standards than you for how a president uses the rhetorical power of his office.
> 
> Sure.  He did not tell anyone to drink bleach.  He openly mused about injecting disinfectant, while on national TV.
> 
> ...


a. You are Buzz.  "To infinity and beyond!"
b. What happened to the no insult thing?  It's a good one...give you that.  Good job.  Not much to complain about on that one.
c. Oh I agree it was stupid.  I agree that it's not a president's job to wax speculative on potential future remedies.  I'd gamble he probably heard (and didn't fully understand) what someone was telling him.
d. I don't, however, really think it's any worse than a President who very clearly is showing signs of dementia, which should be equally concerning as the stupidity.
e. You proved espola's point wrong however.   That's what I was responding to.  You are better than his partisan hack game and shouldn't have defended it (or worse you failed to understand the distinction in the language which he was using, which isn't like you).
f. You really need to stop associating with that crowd.  You are better than the knuckleheads.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a. You are Buzz.  "To infinity and beyond!"
> b. What happened to the no insult thing?  It's a good one...give you that.  Good job.  Not much to complain about on that one.
> c. Oh I agree it was stupid.  I agree that it's not a president's job to wax speculative on potential future remedies.  I'd gamble he probably heard (and didn't fully understand) what someone was telling him.
> d. I don't, however, really think it's any worse than a President who very clearly is showing signs of dementia, which should be equally concerning as the stupidity.
> ...


Seriously it's really becoming a problem.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372937314477953027


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

Should be in the good news thread but whatever.....some (including the current CDC director) have been saying this for a while.....









						CDC shortens Covid social distancing guidelines for kids in school to 3 feet with masks
					

The CDC recommendation is for all K-12 students, regardless of whether community transmission is low, moderate or substantial.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

crush said:


> He wants ALL children to be Vaxed first.  So nice of them caring for the kids like that.


11.3 Pediatric Use Emergency Use Authorization of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine in adolescents 16 and 17 years of age is based on extrapolation of safety and effectiveness from adults 18 years of age and older. Emergency Use Authorization of Pfizer BioNTech *COVID-19 Vaccine does not include use in individuals younger than 16 years of age.*


----------



## watfly (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Seriously it's really becoming a problem.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372937314477953027


C,mon man,  he's jogging up carpeted stairs in slippery dress shoes and he pops right up.  I'd be lying if I said I haven't done that a few times jogging up stairs.

Now is he of diminished mental capacity? 100%.  Compare his acuity from videos just a few years ago.  The facial masking and blank stare are a dead giveaway.  I suspect its primarily age related.  Another tell tale sign of diminished mental capacity is the behavior of others around you.  Notice how Jill finishes his sentences or corrects him and how his handlers have to guide him.  Now does that make him unqualified to be President? I don't know.  He's an empty suit anyway, but its not a good look on the President of the United States.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> C,mon man,  he's jogging up carpeted stairs in slippery dress shoes and he pops right up.  I'd be lying if I said I haven't done that a few times jogging up stairs.


If he had fallen once, I'd agree.  I'd even buy maybe it's just he has new dress shoes that haven't been scratched at the bottom yet, but on that third fall he really loses any control.  Remember when Trump had to take those teeny tiny steps on that ramp and the media lost it?  This is way worse.

Also, if it appeared in isolation I'd totally discount it as an incident.  But his gait has also really changed in the last month or so.  It's what they call the "dementia walk".  Now, I fully concede I'm not expert, but I've had several people (including my mom's dementia PT) point this out to us.  It was one of the main signs they used to diagnose my mother's condition and now that we've been clued in on it, it's pretty obvious when we see her walk (and hers is not at all as bad as his).  Coupled with the other things you mention, in total, it's very concerning.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If he had fallen once, I'd agree.  I'd even buy maybe it's just he has new dress shoes that haven't been scratched at the bottom yet, but on that third fall he really loses any control.  Remember when Trump had to take those teeny tiny steps on that ramp and the media lost it?  This is way worse.
> 
> Also, if it appeared in isolation I'd totally discount it as an incident.  But his gait has also really changed in the last month or so.  It's what they call the "dementia walk".  Now, I fully concede I'm not expert, but I've had several people (including my mom's dementia PT) point this out to us.  It was one of the main signs they used to diagnose my mother's condition and now that we've been clued in on it, it's pretty obvious when we see her walk (and hers is not at all as bad as his).  Coupled with the other things you mention, in total, it's very concerning.


White House is claiming it's not the shoes but the wind.  Honestly they would have been better off claiming new shoes....it would have been more believable.  Either there's a gale going on there (in which case there should be some reported concern about airforce 1 going in such conditions) or the president is so elderly he gets knocked over by wind?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372959445676875783


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a. You are Buzz.  "To infinity and beyond!"
> b. What happened to the no insult thing?  It's a good one...give you that.  Good job.  Not much to complain about on that one.
> c. Oh I agree it was stupid.  I agree that it's not a president's job to wax speculative on potential future remedies.  I'd gamble he probably heard (and didn't fully understand) what someone was telling him.
> d. I don't, however, really think it's any worse than a President who very clearly is showing signs of dementia, which should be equally concerning as the stupidity.
> ...


You have switched your position.

Originally, it was "he never said it".

Now it is "he never said this stupid thing; he said that other stupid thing."

That's why it was a bad choice to jump into it.  You wound up having to dance around the subtle differences between two really stupid comments.

-Buzz


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> C,mon man,  he's jogging up carpeted stairs in slippery dress shoes and he pops right up.  I'd be lying if I said I haven't done that a few times jogging up stairs.
> 
> Now is he of diminished mental capacity? 100%.  Compare his acuity from videos just a few years ago.  The facial masking and blank stare are a dead giveaway.  I suspect its primarily age related.  Another tell tale sign of diminished mental capacity is the behavior of others around you.  Notice how Jill finishes his sentences or corrects him and how his handlers have to guide him.  Now does that make him unqualified to be President? I don't know.  He's an empty suit anyway, but its not a good look on the President of the United States.


He clearly isn't sharp anymore. 

Notice how he hasn't given a speech before the joint houses yet? We have one every year. Not this year. I suspect he isn't up for the challenge of speaking for 90 minutes. 

In terms of falling....

Problem solved.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

The whole dementia thing isn't news.  We knew we voted for a frail old man who will hire and listen to competent people.

So far, so good.  A couple appointments I don't like, but mostly he is holding up his end of the bargain.

If we wanted an athlete, we'd have President Hawley or President AOC.  I am glad we don't.


----------



## watfly (Mar 19, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> He clearly isn't sharp anymore.
> 
> Notice how he hasn't given a speech before the joint houses yet? We have one every year. Not this year. I suspect he isn't up for the challenge of speaking for 90 minutes.
> 
> ...


That was quick.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You have switched your position.
> 
> Originally, it was "he never said it".
> 
> ...


 espola claimed he told people to drink or inject bleach.  You just proved Trump didn't say that.  I never said it was a smart comment.  I agree it was stupid.  My point was, as espola so often is, he was wrong.  It was a critique of espola (who claims he isn't partisan when really he is a partisan hack), not a defense of Trump.


----------



## watfly (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The whole dementia thing isn't news.


Exactly, had it been questioned in the media pre-election he's not the president.

You're an informed voter so you took that into account, but most voters are "low information" voters (on both sides) so unless this issue was discussed in the mainstream they didn't consider or know about it.

Can we get a do over without Biden or Trump?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The whole dementia thing isn't news.  We knew we voted for a frail old man who will hire and listen to competent people.
> 
> So far, so good.  A couple appointments I don't like, but mostly he is holding up his end of the bargain.
> 
> If we wanted an athlete, we'd have President Hawley or President AOC.  I am glad we don't.


At least you are honest about the dementia thing.  Not everyone on the left or the media has been.  The next question is how far along is he and how does that impact his ability to do his job (my mother is almost a year behind him and she certainly wouldn't be capable of a high powered job like that any more).  And if he doesn't have those capacities, how do we know he'll hire competent people?  Somebody needs to be guiding him....who is it?


----------



## watfly (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> At least you are honest about the dementia thing.  Not everyone on the left or the media has been.  The next question is how far along is he and how does that impact his ability to do his job (my mother is almost a year behind him and she certainly wouldn't be capable of a high powered job like that any more).  And if he doesn't have those capacities, how do we know he'll hire competent people?  Somebody needs to be guiding him....who is it?


I thought Jen Psaki was our President, she seems to be the only one that can speak for him since apparently he is not capable himself.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> I thought Jen Psaki was our President, she seems to be the only one that can speak for him since apparently he is not capable himself.


I'll have to circle back with you on that one.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> At least you are honest about the dementia thing.  Not everyone on the left or the media has been.  The next question is how far along is he and how does that impact his ability to do his job (my mother is almost a year behind him and she certainly wouldn't be capable of a high powered job like that any more).  And if he doesn't have those capacities, how do we know he'll hire competent people?  Somebody needs to be guiding him....who is it?


See, the FUD thing doesn't work.  I can look at his VP and cabinet picks, and assume he delegates to them.

It reminds me of Reagan's second term.  RR wasn't all that sharp by that point, either.  But Bush did fine.

If you want to get over 50%, you need a new strategy.  If you try to tear down the other guy, you just remind me of Trump.  

And thinking of Trump makes me remember why I voted for Biden in the first place.


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> See, the FUD thing doesn't work.  I can look at his VP and cabinet picks, and assume he delegates to them.
> 
> It reminds me of Reagan's second term.  RR wasn't all that sharp by that point, either.  But Bush did fine.
> 
> ...


We've been played, by both sides Daddy.  Wake up or be a part of the liars club.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> See, the FUD thing doesn't work.  I can look at his VP and cabinet picks, and assume he delegates to them.
> 
> It reminds me of Reagan's second term.  RR wasn't all that sharp by that point, either.  But Bush did fine.
> 
> ...


One of the early rules in life I learned (both work and personal) has been to never assume anything.  It's dangerous.

While in the realm of fairness, I don't think the comparison with Reagan holds up.  While Reagan was certainly showing signs of decline, he isn't as far gone as Biden with the stumbles, forgetfulness, dodging press conferences speeches and interviews, and getting lost mid sentence (which is a sign that he is really far advanced....my mother for example forgets she said things and loses things, but doesn't lose track midway through sentences...Biden didn't even do that last year during his limited public engagements).

I agree with the tear down thing.  Since Obama, we've had Presidents who have only tried to tear down the other guy.  But I also think the Rs have been tired of just taking things (like the Romney binders of women or the dog thing) and need to learn to fight back, particularly given how obvius the media has its thumb on the scale.

But I agree with watfly that the extent of Biden's dementia was not reported widely and the media went to great lengths to not report or focus on it.  I don't think a single mainstream news outlet did a "Does Biden have dementia?" story during the election (only one I recall was CNN which tried to discredit the report as Republican propaganda).  If he does have a capacity issue, it should have been fully explored and disclosed to the voters so they could make an informed decision.  Unlike you, most of the left and media is still denying the dementia, and low information voters are only starting to get clued into it.


----------



## crush (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> One of the early rules in life I learned (both work and personal) has been to never assume anything.  It's dangerous.
> 
> While in the realm of fairness, I don't think the comparison with Reagan holds up.  While Reagan was certainly showing signs of decline, he isn't as far gone as Biden with the stumbles, forgetfulness, dodging press conferences speeches and interviews, and getting lost mid sentence (which is a sign that he is really far advanced....my mother for example forgets she said things and loses things, but doesn't lose track midway through sentences...Biden didn't even do that last year during his limited public engagements).
> 
> ...


Where two fight no one is right and the kids lose every freaking time.  Selfishness runs deep in all of us Grace.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

Another variant....









						New French coronavirus variant appears to bypass standard tests
					

The strain is in the WHO’s ‘variant under investigation’ category.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

Seriously, with south africa heading into winter how is this happening if south africa variant is really that bad.  Demographics yes help, but the AIDS crisis does not.  Density is high in the south african cities.  The WSJ article speculates but the only real solid theory would be South Africa is at herd immunity and just massively undercounted the winter (their summer) wave due to poor testing.  That, or the test is missing the SA variant, but there's no massive reports of people getting sick in South Africa.  I'm skeptical of herd immunity claims.   If herd immunity really was in the 40% range, Belgium should be there and Sweden should be close, and NY is there, but we are seeing upticks in cases (yeah, I know variants raise the level but so should the SA variant).  Could South Africa really be in the 60-80% range and the symptoms were just so mild that everyone missed it?









						South Africa COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

South Africa Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						South Africa’s Drop in Covid-19 Cases Adds to Questions About Waves of Infections
					

Epidemiologists were bracing for the worst of the pandemic in South Africa earlier this year, but something surprising happened: Covid-19 cases plummeted with no large vaccination plan or stringent lockdown in place.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## happy9 (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> See, the FUD thing doesn't work.  I can look at his VP and cabinet picks, and assume he delegates to them.
> 
> It reminds me of Reagan's second term.  RR wasn't all that sharp by that point, either.  But Bush did fine.
> 
> ...


It's certainly a popular way of making political choices but dangerous at the same time.

We've moved the needle on nothing in regards to policy outside of our borders.  Regardless of what party you kneel to, the US government looks pretty weak on the international front.

Southern Border is not looking good - FEMA just doesn't show up on a whim to do anything.  The Chinese know they can push harder.  The Middle East countries don't really know what to do, who to align with.  Afghanistan (which has been a disaster since 2001) is not looking any more clear.  Syria? well, Syria.  

Yes, all these things need time and they are complicated. But from the outside looking in, the report card is not looking good.  I'm not one to judge anyone or anything on 100 days, but things aren't trending in any direction that would point to competence.

But.....we've passed a COVID bill that has minimal covid stuff.  We knew that was coming.  Next - tax increase, flirting with stricter gun controls.  Now that's a more traditional partisan engagement on behalf of both parties and their followers.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The whole dementia thing isn't news.  We knew we voted for a frail old man who will hire and listen to competent people.
> 
> So far, so good.  A couple appointments I don't like, but mostly he is holding up his end of the bargain.
> 
> If we wanted an athlete, we'd have President Hawley or President AOC.  I am glad we don't.


He is firing all the admitted pot smokers, even the legal ones.  I think he should be prejudiced toward keeping honest people.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> espola claimed he told people to drink or inject bleach.  You just proved Trump didn't say that.  I never said it was a smart comment.  I agree it was stupid.  My point was, as espola so often is, he was wrong.  It was a critique of espola (who claims he isn't partisan when really he is a partisan hack), not a defense of Trump.


Are you still upset over the "debunked" thing?  That was another instance when you wound yourself up into a circle where you had to deny your own statements.

I really didn't want to rub your nose in it -- I gave you plenty of opportunity to recognize your error and admit/correct it.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The whole dementia thing isn't news.  We knew we voted for a frail old man who will hire and listen to competent people.
> 
> So far, so good.  A couple appointments I don't like, but mostly he is holding up his end of the bargain.
> 
> If we wanted an athlete, we'd have President Hawley or President AOC.  I am glad we don't.


My guess is (based totally on appearance) that the nationally-recognized politician in the best physical shape is Romney.  I could live with that.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Are you still upset over the "debunked" thing?  That was another instance when you wound yourself up into a circle where you had to deny your own statements.
> 
> I really didn't want to rub your nose in it -- I gave you plenty of opportunity to recognize your error and admit/correct it.


Are you still upset over getting the bleach thing wrong?  Ready to admit your partisan hackery? Come on...just admit it....we all know it....you'll feel good about it when you are done.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Are you still upset over getting the bleach thing wrong?  Ready to admit your partisan hackery? Come on...just admit it....we all know it....you'll feel good about it when you are done.


I didn't expect the hook could get set that easily.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> He is firing all the admitted pot smokers, even the legal ones.  I think he should be prejudiced toward keeping honest people.


Biden is little behind the times with those firings.  

It’s also a bad choice from a security perspective.  A person who openly used pot is not a security risk.  But, if you force them to hide it, now they can be blackmailed.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't expect the hook could get set that easily.


Come on. Just fess up to your partisanship.  You’ll feel so much better when you do.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Biden is little behind the times with those firings.
> 
> It’s also a bad choice from a security perspective.  A person who openly used pot is not a security risk.  But, if you force them to hide it, now they can be blackmailed.


It's worse than that.  Back when it was illegal, if one admitted to having smoked pot "while in college" or some such diminishment, you might et the clearance, but the security guys would want to have more details as one applied for higher levels (who did you smoke with? - was it anyone from work? - or someone with a clearance?).  I got my TS before I even knew anyone who smoked, and the most nagging questions on my CRYPTO questionnaire were things like my brother-in-law's precise addresses for the last few years (he lived in Manila at the time) and what the letters ABCS stood for on my SDSU diploma (artium baccalaureus computer science -- I like that mix of languages).


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Come on. Just fess up to your partisanship.  You’ll feel so much better when you do.


I am an anti-trumpist.  Does that make me partisan?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I am an anti-trumpist.  Does that make me partisan?


TDS much?  

besides the pot thing (seriously that’s your line???), we have yet to hear a critical thing from you about the ds and/or health experts. I’ve been critical of trump. So it certainly makes you more partisan than me.

The cheap political tricks are also big with you. Bleach?  You couldn’t even get that one past dad4.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> TDS much?
> 
> besides the pot thing (seriously that’s your line???), we have yet to hear a critical thing from you about the ds and/or health experts. I’ve been critical of trump. So it certainly makes you more partisan than me.
> 
> The cheap political tricks are also big with you. Bleach?  You couldn’t even get that one past dad4.


Being opposed to t, or his methods, or his policies is not a sign of derangement.

As for criticizing ds, I said several times that Biden is too old after he announced his candidacy (and I consider myself a bit of an expert on being too old to do things anymore, and he is older than me).  Thus his choice of running mate and likely successor was important.  I could take a couple of years of Harris, and then judge her on how things turn out.

On the other side of the aisle, I have no complaints about former SD Mayor Faulconer, former California Governor Schwarzenegger, or current Vermont governor (and one time minor-league NASCAR champion) Phil Scott.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Being opposed to t, or his methods, or his policies is not a sign of derangement.
> 
> As for criticizing ds, I said several times that Biden is too old after he announced his candidacy (and I consider myself a bit of an expert on being too old to do things anymore, and he is older than me).  Thus his choice of running mate and likely successor was important.  I could take a couple of years of Harris, and then judge her on how things turn out.
> 
> On the other side of the aisle, I have no complaints about former SD Mayor Faulconer, former California Governor Schwarzenegger, or current Vermont governor (and one time minor-league NASCAR champion) Phil Scott.


If your position is better to have Harris than Biden your partisanship is moving in the wrong direction

I was kinda hoping you’d say mitt Romney. It would color you less blue and put you more in the Megan McCain camp. It would still be partisan as the r party is fast passing by the McCain’s and Romney’s but at least your “conservative” argument would be more colorable

you happy now that we are on your favorite subject (besides your neighborhood that is): you


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If your position is better to have Harris than Biden your partisanship is moving in the wrong direction
> 
> I was kinda hoping you’d say mitt Romney. It would color you less blue and put you more in the Megan McCain camp. It would still be partisan as the r party is fast passing by the McCain’s and Romney’s but at least your “conservative” argument would be more colorable
> 
> you happy now that we are on your favorite subject (besides your neighborhood that is): you


I already posted today that I like Romney -- see above.

If you didn't want to hear about my political positions, then why did you ask?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> TDS much?
> 
> besides the pot thing (seriously that’s your line???), we have yet to hear a critical thing from you about the ds and/or health experts. I’ve been critical of trump. So it certainly makes you more partisan than me.
> 
> The cheap political tricks are also big with you. Bleach?  You couldn’t even get that one past dad4.


Don’t drag me down with you.  I don’t really care whether trump was talking injecting about bleach, lysol, or some other disinfectant.  

You want to tie yourself to that rhetorical anvil, go for it, but leave me out.


----------



## N00B (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> He is firing all the admitted pot smokers, even the legal ones.  I think he should be prejudiced toward keeping honest people.


Not sure they were the ‘honest’ ones.  Likely lied on a previous background check, which I believe is also a criminal offense.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

N00B said:


> Not sure they were the ‘honest’ ones.  Likely lied on a previous background check, which I believe is also a criminal offense.


Likely?


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Don’t drag me down with you.  I don’t really care whether trump was talking injecting about bleach, lysol, or some other disinfectant.
> 
> You want to tie yourself to that rhetorical anvil, go for it, but leave me out.


How about hydrogen peroxide?  That and bleach are the only disinfectants we have in our house.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Don’t drag me down with you.  I don’t really care whether trump was talking injecting about bleach, lysol, or some other disinfectant.
> 
> You want to tie yourself to that rhetorical anvil, go for it, but leave me out.


You were the one who disproved him.  Didn’t want to be in that position don’t jump into his nonsense.  Your association with him is probably the biggest anvil around the (sometimes good) arguments you try to make


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I already posted today that I like Romney -- see above.
> 
> If you didn't want to hear about my political positions, then why did you ask?


Wow I never would have guessed you supported him over Obama. We have something else in common.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow I never would have guessed you supported him over Obama. We have something else in common.


I didn't vote for either one of them in 2008.


----------



## N00B (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Likely?


“Misrepresenting drug history in White House paperwork or interviews with security personnel could be a factor that would lead someone to be deemed as not suitable for a security clearance”









						Five staffers let go over marijuana use, White House says
					

The firings came despite the Biden administration's efforts to balance federal hiring guidelines with state legalization laws.




					www.google.com
				




There was a more specific quote in a news story from earlier today, but it’s since been replaced by additional reporting on the topic. Note, it doesn’t necessarily imply that the misrepresentation was in regard to marijuana, they could have withheld information regarding other drug use that was uncovered in the security clearance interviews of associates, etc.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't vote for either one of them in 2008.


Correction -- 2012.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Are you still upset over getting the bleach thing wrong?  Ready to admit your partisan hackery? Come on...just admit it....we all know it....you'll feel good about it when you are done.


A lot of people (almost universally t supporters) "got the bleach thing wrong".  Given that, I think my question to you was inappropriate.









						CDC: Some Americans are misusing cleaning products — including drinking them — in effort to kill coronavirus
					

To try to kill the novel coronavirus, some Americans are unsafely using disinfectants and cleaners, even ingesting them, health officials reported Friday.




					www.statnews.com


----------



## Glitterhater (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Here you go:
> 
> ”I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning.  As you see it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that.”
> 
> Trying to deny something that was on national TV?  Pathetic really.  So sad.  She’s not in a good place with the truth right now.  You really hope she’ll learn to do better.


I don't read this as him saying to "inject bleach". I just read it as a statment from a man who is a very poor (on the fly) public speaker with the lack of understanding that "words mean things".


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Correction -- 2012.


Guess you don’t like him THAT much then


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Guess you don’t like him THAT much then


Romney is a standup honest guy with a good record in Massachusetts and the Salt Lake Olympics.  I didn't like Paul Ryan.  Bad VP choice is also why I didn't vote for McCain in 2008.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I don't read this as him saying to "inject bleach". I just read it as a statment from a man who is a very poor (on the fly) public speaker with the lack of understanding that "words mean things".


Especially to his dimwitted supporters, many of whom took him literally.


----------



## espola (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> A lot of people (almost universally t supporters) "got the bleach thing wrong".  Given that, I think my question to you was **inappropriate.*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 *...not inappropriate.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Guess you don’t like him THAT much then


Plenty of people voted for Romney in 2008.  He lost in the primary to McCain.  He gave a very gracious concession speech at CPAC.

That was back when being a good loser was seen as an essential part of having good character.  

I miss those days.  

Pardon me.  I gotta go chase some kids off my lawn.

-Buzz


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't expect the hook could get set that easily.


You've been spooled.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Plenty of people voted for Romney in 2008.  He lost in the primary to McCain.  He gave a very gracious concession speech at CPAC.
> 
> That was back when being a good loser was seen as an essential part of having good character.
> 
> ...


That trend has been dead in the ds at least until 2004.  The gore loss and Kerry really had the ds go for the jugular. Say what you will about obama but he was politically knowledgeable and a brawler.

Romney(with the crawley debate, the binders of women and the dog thing) taught the rs it doesn’t pay to be a gentleman or have character. The ds and the media are still going to try and tar you as a bigot. Trump is partially explained (among other factors) as a desire to find someone that fights back. It’s one of the reason Jebs! campaign faltered when he wouldn’t fight back. There were other factors and reasons


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Romney is a standup honest guy with a good record in Massachusetts and the Salt Lake Olympics.  I didn't like Paul Ryan.  Bad VP choice is also why I didn't vote for McCain in 2008.


Your partisanship is showing. Implicit in your statement is that Harris (who likely will be president sooner rather than later) is acceptable.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That trend has been dead in the ds at least until 2004.  The gore loss and Kerry really had the ds go for the jugular. Say what you will about obama but he was politically knowledgeable and a brawler.
> 
> Romney(with the crawley debate, the binders of women and the dog thing) taught the rs it doesn’t pay to be a gentleman or have character. The ds and the media are still going to try and tar you as a bigot. Trump is partially explained (among other factors) as a desire to find someone that fights back. It’s one of the reason Jebs! campaign faltered when he wouldn’t fight back. There were other factors and reasons


I think that is exactly what it is. Most Rs haven't fought back against slurs and obvious lies.

The press has much more than a thumb on the scale. Watch how they frame issues reporting wise. Watch the point of view in which they ask questions.

At some point someone needs to stand up and call BS.

In an ideal world we would have a non partisan press. It would do wonders for the country.

Instead we have a press corps that claims to be down the line...and they are not...and unfortunately the vast majority of people think the same thing. And the vast majority of news orgs are Ds in all but name.

You can always tell who gets news from a range of spectrums vs those that don't. The first clue is they are unaware of what the actual details of the others sides argument is.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Especially to his dimwitted supporters, many of whom took him literally.


And again


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Really?  He got the better of fauci in that exchange. Forced him to basically only the South Africa variant is a concern, got him to say basically any new variant needs new protocols so masking forever and ended with “I disagree”.


Yes of course you would see it that way, lol!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Paul asked the wrong question, Fauci tried to clearly explain why it was the wrong question, and Paul cut him off.
> 
> Not only was Paul wrong, but he was rude while being wrong.  That is no way to treat someone who is there as a resource to help you.


Grandstander.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 20, 2021)

espola said:


> Nonsense.  Paul's function is to get re-elected.  His antics are aimed at the hearts (but not the minds) of his base.


Belligerent, ignorant bully is the new budget conscious, small government, low tax ploy.


----------



## crush (Mar 20, 2021)

So many are blackmailed these days.  Walk in the light and you have nothing worry about.  I feel so sad for these girls who had to work with this guy that EOTL and his 4 avatars supported as the role model. * 8 is ENOUGH!! * #1 in deaths and had a hospital ship waiting to help.  Then, he says things like this and says it was in the heat of a political battle.  WTFU folks.

*Cuomo threatened to compare critic to 'child rapist' in leaked audio*
*New York Times podcast reveals what Cuomo said to a big backer of Cynthia Nixon*

*"If you ever say, *'Well he's better than a Republican' again, then I'm gonna say, 'You're better than a child rapist.' How about that?" Cuomo is heard telling Lipton on the call, according to the New York Times audio.

*Angry *over the lackluster support, Cuomo then repeated his threat: "I think you’re better than a child rapist."

Reached Saturday by Fox News, a spokesman for the governor said Cuomo *didn’t remember the exchange* with Lipton.

"*This three-year-old conversation* happened after a* very contentious political campaign *where things were charged on all sides," Rich Azzopardi said in a statement to Fox News. "He doesn't remember it occurring, but from how it has been described he was clearly being hyperbolic to illustrate the offensive nature of the WFP's own name calling."


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 20, 2021)

espola said:


> If Paul wanted to find out the facts, he should have let Fauci answer.  He's just playing the bully so the wanna-be tough guys looking on can say "Paul really got Fauci there".


Exactly, talking over, louder than and around someone doesn’t signify a “win”. You never learn anything doing that.


----------



## crush (Mar 20, 2021)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 20, 2021)

espola said:


> I am an anti-trumpist.  Does that make me partisan?


The indoctrinated, the cult members are all or nothing, 100% with us or you are 100% against us. To them, if you are a never trumper you are basically, as the plumber use to say, a commie. Pure patriot or Julius Rosenberg.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If your position is better to have Harris than Biden your partisanship is moving in the wrong direction
> 
> I was kinda hoping you’d say mitt Romney. It would color you less blue and put you more in the Megan McCain camp. It would still be partisan as the r party is fast passing by the McCain’s and Romney’s but at least your “conservative” argument would be more colorable
> 
> you happy now that we are on your favorite subject (besides your neighborhood that is): you


The Republican Party is moving towards voter suppression. As a distinct minority it’s their only chance to win. There just aren’t enough aggrieved, gullible white folk to keep them in power.


----------



## espola (Mar 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Your partisanship is showing. Implicit in your statement is that Harris (who likely will be president sooner rather than later) is acceptable.


What has Harris done that I would find not acceptable?


----------



## espola (Mar 20, 2021)

espola said:


> What has Harris done that I would find not acceptable?


Note;  My Grammarly spellchecker does not yet flag "Harriss" as a possible misspelling of "Harris".

(But it knows the correct spelling of "Schwarzenegger")


----------



## dad4 (Mar 20, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The Republican Party is moving towards voter suppression. As a distinct minority it’s their only chance to win. There just aren’t enough aggrieved, gullible white folk to keep them in power.


True.  

But not necessary.  There is a place for a low spending, low debt, low regulation party.  The kind that wins minority votes by improving schools and reducing red tape for minority businesses.   

That philosophy does not seem to be in fashion these days.


----------



## crush (Mar 20, 2021)

Talking to yourselves again?  You guys are so predictable.


----------



## crush (Mar 20, 2021)

Where is The Long Game and his Quad bro EOTL?  If they both come out, then we can all chat together this evening like we did in the old days bro.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 20, 2021)

espola said:


> What has Harris done that I would find not acceptable?


She’s very hard left now days.  Rates the or one of the most liberal senators in surveys iirc. If Ryan was a no for you but Harris is a yes it outlines where your sympathies lies.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 20, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The Republican Party is moving towards voter suppression. As a distinct minority it’s their only chance to win. There just aren’t enough aggrieved, gullible white folk to keep them in power.


Well the d party is getting pretty close to outright support of fraud. I’ll have to show a covid passport to fly but nothing to vote?  

ps I know many Latinos that have moved towards the rs away from the ds. It’s certainly not a majority but more than I would have thought given the race baiting concerns with the r party.


----------



## crush (Mar 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well the d party is getting pretty close to outright support of fraud. I’ll have to show a covid passport to fly but nothing to vote?
> 
> ps I know many Latinos that have moved towards the rs away from the ds. It’s certainly not a majority but more than I would have thought given the race baiting concerns with the r party.


Cheaters wont prosper this time around Grace, I promise.  We need "True Justice" and that is lost is our system and theses guys already know it.  Naughty men, that's what they are.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> True.
> 
> But not necessary.  There is a place for a low spending, low debt, low regulation party.  The kind that wins minority votes by improving schools and reducing red tape for minority businesses.
> 
> That philosophy does not seem to be in fashion these days.


I don’t think there is.  The deficit hawks are dead and no voters are sold on balanced budgets.  Both parties spending like crazy. Citizens just want their piece of the piece whether govt subsidies, benefits, loans, freebies like health care and college educations but have the other guy pay for it. The schools have their hands out too but the thing you can do most to improve minority education (ship black and brown kids to white school districts) is vehemently resisted by nimby voters and cash demanding teachers unions. White shoe republicanism is dead.


----------



## crush (Mar 20, 2021)

*VCU out of NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament over coronavirus issue, Oregon advances*

This sucks for VCU and the players


----------



## dad4 (Mar 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I don’t think there is.  The deficit hawks are dead and no voters are sold on balanced budgets.  Both parties spending like crazy. Citizens just want their piece of the piece whether govt subsidies, benefits, loans, freebies like health care and college educations but have the other guy pay for it. The schools have their hands out too but the thing you can do most to improve minority education (ship black and brown kids to white school districts) is vehemently resisted by nimby voters and cash demanding teachers unions. White shoe republicanism is dead.


The two Santa Claus theory was not a step forward, to be sure.

But I don’t see much future for the GOP as the white grievance party, either.  Even if you somehow have no moral objections to it, demographics will make it unworkable within 15 years.


----------



## crush (Mar 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The two Santa Claus theory was not a step forward, to be sure.
> 
> But I don’t see much future for the GOP as the white grievance party, either.  Even if you somehow have no moral objections to it, demographics will make it unworkable within 15 years.


WTFRUTA?  Stop it!!!  Enough is enough and 8 is way too much losers!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The two Santa Claus theory was not a step forward, to be sure.
> 
> But I don’t see much future for the GOP as the white grievance party, either.  Even if you somehow have no moral objections to it, demographics will make it unworkable within 15 years.


agree but the issue is the ds seem intent on ticking off minority working class voter too. Certainly the immigration, school closures and woke agenda have the Latino community jittery. The riots and affirmative action in colleges is a potential weakness for the Asian and Jewish communities. Trump did move the needle there even in the African American community despite Harris being on the ballot. Whoever captures these voters has a chance to build a solid coalition but I don’t see the ds doing it if they lean heavily into wokeism, or the rs if they lean heavily into racial dog whistles.

the white community isn’t monolithic either. The umps are very heavily d.  This is actually more a class thing than it is a racial thing at work with the workers tilting towards trumpy Populism and the upper classes and lower classes tilting towards the ds. Not a criticism but your particular technocratic position is why you don’t see it. But that also makes the r coalition more stable if they can actually make those voters feel more comfortable in the r tent instead of having to have them look over their shoulder for the confederate flags. It’s a season of odd bedfellows.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Well, here we are. Six weeks ago Osterholm stated that we were 6-14 weeks away from this.
> 
> “You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher —  450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”
> 
> ...


Alright, 7 weeks ago we were given a 6-14 week range of Osterholm's Armageddon ("OA"). As stated last week, we have flattened out in cases and now hospitalizations are only dropping slightly. That isn't good news. However, we are nowhere near anything like OA. Deaths are still dropping like a rock, but they typically lag hospitalizations by a couple of weeks. If deaths keep dropping like this for two more weeks, I think it's pretty much done - no OA. By then we'll be at about 30% vaccinated (24.5% now). If J&J comes through in the volumes expected starting in April, we'll likely be vaccinating news folks at 1%/day. By the end of April, we'll be nearing 60% vaccinated with at least their first shot.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Alright, 7 weeks ago we were given a 6-14 week range of Osterholm's Armageddon ("OA"). As stated last week, we have flattened out in cases and now hospitalizations are only dropping slightly. That isn't good news. However, we are nowhere near anything like OA. Deaths are still dropping like a rock, but they typically lag hospitalizations by a couple of weeks. If deaths keep dropping like this for two more weeks, I think it's pretty much done - no OA. By then we'll be at about 30% vaccinated (24.5% now). If J&J comes through in the volumes expected starting in April, we'll likely be vaccinating news folks at 1%/day. By the end of April, we'll be nearing 60% vaccinated with at least their first shot.


Gottlieb today went on a limb and says notwithstanding what’s happening in the northeast he doesn’t expect a third wave.  If not for our issues in the northeast, the cases/hospitalizations would be dropping.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> agree but the issue is the ds seem intent on ticking off minority working class voter too. Certainly the immigration, school closures and woke agenda have the Latino community jittery. The riots and affirmative action in colleges is a potential weakness for the Asian and Jewish communities. Trump did move the needle there even in the African American community despite Harris being on the ballot. Whoever captures these voters has a chance to build a solid coalition but I don’t see the ds doing it if they lean heavily into wokeism, or the rs if they lean heavily into racial dog whistles.
> 
> the white community isn’t monolithic either. The umps are very heavily d.  This is actually more a class thing than it is a racial thing at work with the workers tilting towards trumpy Populism and the upper classes and lower classes tilting towards the ds. Not a criticism but your particular technocratic position is why you don’t see it. But that also makes the r coalition more stable if they can actually make those voters feel more comfortable in the r tent instead of having to have them look over their shoulder for the confederate flags. It’s a season of odd bedfellows.


Reading a good book right now by irshaf manji called “don’t label me”.  She rabid anti trump, passionate Obama supporter and has blinders about Obama’s role in all this. She is also anti-woke and quite unbeknownst to me spotted the same thing in her book as I outline above.  Coincidence


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Gottlieb today went on a limb and says notwithstanding what’s happening in the northeast he doesn’t expect a third wave.  If not for our issues in the northeast, the cases/hospitalizations would be dropping.


But CNN did a whole story last summer about how NY had figured it out . If I had to guess, I'd say the daily deaths keep falling. Maybe cases rise for a bit, but based on what happened in Israel, it looks promising. My only concern is that we vaccinated a higher portion of the older population who were least likely to get it and those in the more densely populated areas aren't getting vaccinated at as high a rate. I'm feeling optimistic about this being pretty much over by May. We just need J&J to come through with the expected doses. Of course, even if this happens, I imagine CA will have its share of "Hiroo Onoda" folks who will keep up the battle.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> But CNN did a whole story last summer about how NY had figured it out . If I had to guess, I'd say the daily deaths keep falling. Maybe cases rise for a bit, but based on what happened in Israel, it looks promising. My only concern is that we vaccinated a higher portion of the older population who were least likely to get it and those in the more densely populated areas aren't getting vaccinated at as high a rate. I'm feeling optimistic about this being pretty much over by May. We just need J&J to come through with the expected doses. Of course, even if this happens, I imagine CA will have its share of "Hiroo Onoda" folks who will keep up the battle.


What we should do will depend on whether a seriously vaccine resistant variant develops.

If such a variant exists, then the right response is to mask up even after we are vaccinated.

If there is no such variant, then the masks become unnecessary after vaccination.

But, as yet, no one knows which case applies.  And we probably won't know any time soon.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What we should do will depend on whether a seriously vaccine resistant variant develops.
> 
> If such a variant exists, then the right response is to mask up even after we are vaccinated.
> 
> ...


This is an argument though that every time a new variant comes people need to go back to the old npis.  Since new variants will be around for a while that means masks (and now 3 foot distancing) forever (at least in the foreseeable future). Rather the proof should go the other way...do that when there’s been shown to be a likelihood of substantial harm

the next question is what is substantial harm. Even if the variant goes around the vaccine does it reduce the rate of death and icu care below that of the flu.  Cases don’t matter only serious illness


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 22, 2021)

espola said:


> What has Harris done that I would find not acceptable?


nothing.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> True.
> 
> But not necessary.  There is a place for a low spending, low debt, low regulation party.  The kind that wins minority votes by improving schools and reducing red tape for minority businesses.
> 
> That philosophy does not seem to be in fashion these days.


You're a little late to that party Alice.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 22, 2021)

crush said:


> *VCU out of NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament over coronavirus issue, Oregon advances*
> 
> This sucks for VCU and the players


Fauci's revenge for being too short for the court.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is an argument though that every time a new variant comes people need to go back to the old npis.  Since new variants will be around for a while that means masks (and now 3 foot distancing) forever (at least in the foreseeable future). Rather the proof should go the other way...do that when there’s been shown to be a likelihood of substantial harm
> 
> the next question is what is substantial harm. Even if the variant goes around the vaccine does it reduce the rate of death and icu care below that of the flu.  Cases don’t matter only serious illness


You seem to be lumping all NPI together.  This is not valid.

The level of risk needed to justify masks is different from the level of risk needed to justify shutting down factories.  A 10% chance of another half million people dying seems more than enough to justify wearing a mask.  It is not enough to justify shutting schools and factories.

Not that it matters.  A large fraction of the country proved themselves incapable of behaving responsibly in the presence of a known pandemic.  I can’t imagine their behavior would suddenly improve in the presence of a potential pandemic.  Instead, they will scream “LOCKDOWN’ if anyone tries to require them to wear a piece of cloth on their face.

Then they will search the internet for some image or half-informed fool willing to say masks don’t work- preferably a doctor speaking outside his specialization.


----------



## crush (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You seem to be lumping all NPI together.  This is not valid.
> 
> The level of risk needed to justify masks is different from the level of risk needed to justify shutting down factories.  A 10% chance of another half million people dying seems more than enough to justify wearing a mask.  It is not enough to justify shutting schools and factories.
> 
> ...


Don;t you have a Math class to teach today?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You seem to be lumping all NPI together.  This is not valid.
> 
> The level of risk needed to justify masks is different from the level of risk needed to justify shutting down factories.  A 10% chance of another half million people dying seems more than enough to justify wearing a mask.  It is not enough to justify shutting schools and factories.
> 
> ...


This is an argument, again, for masks forever, since there will be new variants in the foreseable future.  At a minimum, once everyone vaccinated, scale it back and restrict it to high risk places like grocery stores, movie theatres, slaughter houses, factories and doctor's waiting rooms and you might get more of a buy in.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is an argument, again, for masks forever, since there will be new variants in the foreseable future.  At a minimum, once everyone vaccinated, scale it back and restrict it to high risk places like grocery stores, movie theatres, slaughter houses, factories and doctor's waiting rooms and you might get more of a buy in.


If that is an argument for “masks *forever*”, then you are arguing for “a half million annual excess deaths, *forever*.”

They both depend on the same thing: how dangerous are new covid variants to a vaccinated population.  If the variants, as they mutate, are equally dangerous to 2020 covid, then we get to choose between masks forever and a higher death rate forever.  But you don’t get to assume temporary for one and permanent for the other.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If that is an argument for “masks *forever*”, then you are arguing for “a half million annual excess deaths, *forever*.”
> 
> They both depend on the same thing: how dangerous are new covid variants to a vaccinated population.  If the variants, as they mutate, are equally dangerous to 2020 covid, then we get to choose between masks forever and a higher death rate forever.  But you don’t get to assume temporary for one and permanent for the other.


That's why I said the relevant question is whether the ifr is in the same ballpark as the flu.  The burden of proof though should be that there is proof that: a) the variant has moved away from the vaccine, and b) that the variant is causing substantial ICU hospitalization/death despite vaccination.  The NPIs should be tied to the IFR (or even the CFR), not cases which are meaningless.  Otherwise we are just engaging in perpetual whack a mole between the vaccine updates and variants.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's why I said the relevant question is whether the ifr is in the same ballpark as the flu.  The burden of proof though should be that there is proof that: a) the variant has moved away from the vaccine, and b) that the variant is causing substantial ICU hospitalization/death despite vaccination.  The NPIs should be tied to the IFR (or even the CFR), not cases which are meaningless.  Otherwise we are just engaging in perpetual whack a mole between the vaccine updates and variants.


By the time we have the data you are asking for, it will be too late to control the variant with low cost means.  Test and trace doesn't work on high case counts.

You're essentially arguing that masks are so bad it is worth risking a shutdown to avoid them.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 22, 2021)

Survival rate is still over 99% right?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> By the time we have the data you are asking for, it will be too late to control the variant with low cost means.  Test and trace doesn't work on high case counts.
> 
> You're essentially arguing that masks are so bad it is worth risking a shutdown to avoid them.


Well there it is.  "too late to control the variant".  You are still clinging to the illusion of control.  Again, only western places that have managed to control it are Australia and NZ....you want to control it a good start is getting the border under control....short of that anything else is futility....talk to me when that's fixed and maybe I'll be open to it but otherwise you are just trying to corral the horses with the barn gate open.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well there it is.  "too late to control the variant".  You are still clinging to the illusion of control.  Again, only western places that have managed to control it are Australia and NZ....you want to control it a good start is getting the border under control....short of that anything else is futility....talk to me when that's fixed and maybe I'll be open to it but otherwise you are just trying to corral the horses with the barn gate open.


Border crossings?  What fraction of US cases are directly connected to an illegal border crossing?  I’d be amazed if it were as high as 1%.  There just are not that many people crossing each day.  It’s a few thousand on a bad day.  Most of them, like most of us, do not have covid.  Even if 1% of them have covid, that explains about 50 cases per day, out of 50,000.  

To take your analogy, yes, the barn gate is open.  And every day, a few horses wander in or out of the barn.  How does that explain the half million palominos running around last month?  

Domestic transmission is over 99% of cases.  Can we talk about that first?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Survival rate is still over 99% right?


Sure.  Survival rate for Russian Roulette is over 83%.

Wanna play?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sure.  Survival rate for Russian Roulette is over 83%.
> 
> Wanna play?


First, it was a yes or no question.  So which is it?

In regards to Russian Roulette, why would I play...those odds are as good?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Border crossings?  What fraction of US cases are directly connected to an illegal border crossing?  I’d be amazed if it were as high as 1%.  There just are not that many people crossing each day.  It’s a few thousand on a bad day.  Most of them, like most of us, do not have covid.  Even if 1% of them have covid, that explains about 50 cases per day, out of 50,000.
> 
> To take your analogy, yes, the barn gate is open.  And every day, a few horses wander in or out of the barn.  How does that explain the half million palominos running around last month?
> 
> Domestic transmission is over 99% of cases.  Can we talk about that first?


You are the one who made the seed argument.  How bout stopping more seeds first?

you’re the one still under the illusion of control. The one thing all the states that even moderately controlled it (whether oz nz the prc or sk) is border controls to prevent new seeds from happening

Until that happens anything else to “control” things is a joke.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are the one who made the seed argument.  How bout stopping more seeds first?
> 
> you’re the one still under the illusion of control. The one thing all the states that even moderately controlled it (whether oz nz the prc or sk) is border controls to prevent new seeds from happening
> 
> Until that happens anything else to “control” things is a joke.


You mean, yell at our neighbors about seeds when our own yard is full of dandelions?

That usually goes over great.  

How about we make a modest effort to work on our own problem, instead if reflexively blaming Mexico?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You mean, yell at our neighbors about seeds when our own yard is full of dandelions?
> 
> That usually goes over great.
> 
> How about we make a modest effort to work on our own problem, instead if reflexively blaming Mexico?


Not blaming m. And it’s not just mexico but Canada and the airlines too. Control without controlling the border is impossible. No one has done that anywhere in the world.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Not blaming m. And it’s not just mexico but Canada and the airlines too. Control without controlling the border is impossible. No one has done that anywhere in the world.


It's interesting too cases are beginning to rise in some of the border counties along the southern border (though not enough yet to really call it out...mostly a few counties in Texas).  Along the northern border, it's north dakota (but not south dakota), Montana, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Idaho.  Could be border related or could be related to latitude.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> First, it was a yes or no question.  So which is it?
> 
> In regards to Russian Roulette, why would I play...those odds are as good?


You’re choosing a bad data representation to hide things you don’t want to talk about.  I don’t play that game.  

If you want to talk risk, use IFR.  How many deaths per infected person.  Over the last year, it’s about 540,000 -640,000 deaths among 170M-200M cases.  Around one death per 300 infections.  Or one death per 500 people overall.

If you live in a normal suburb, that’s equivalent to one unnecessary death within a 3 block walk from your front door.  So, one of your neighbors dies, ten of your neighbors have an unpleasant hospital stay, but everyone else is pretty much ok.   Is it worth wearing masks to avoid that?

You could also think of it in terms of your kid’s elementary school.  In a 500 child school, how many grandparents is it ok to lose to covid?  If you have an IFR of 1% for people aged 60-69, that would be equivalent to about 10 kids losing a grandparent.  Again, does this seem important enough to be worth masking up?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's interesting too cases are beginning to rise in some of the border counties along the southern border (though not enough yet to really call it out...mostly a few counties in Texas).  Along the northern border, it's north dakota (but not south dakota), Montana, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Idaho.  Could be border related or could be related to latitude.


Border related?  Along the north?  Yes, Canada has a problem with covid cases coming over from the US.  But the other direction is not a problem.  Look at their case rates.  We are a problem for them, but not the other way around.

And you might want to rethink your definition of border.  Your cross at least two other states driving from Illinois to Canada.  And almost no one lives in the part of Idaho that touches Canada.  Maybe it affects the Caribou, but the people are hundreds of miles further south.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Border related?  Along the north?  Yes, Canada has a problem with covid cases coming over from the US.  But the other direction is not a problem.  Look at their case rates.  We are a problem for them, but not the other way around.
> 
> And you might want to rethink your definition of border.  Your cross at least two other states driving from Illinois to Canada.  And almost no one lives in the part of Idaho that touches Canada.  Maybe it affects the Caribou, but the people are hundreds of miles further south.


I'm open to the argument that it's latitude but the states on the northern border are the ones that are rising (it includes Maine and New York BTW).  Considering Canada plateaued first (unless you are going to blame NY and MA), it's not true that the spillage is going the other way.  Again, may not be bordered related but the northern border states are going in the wrong direction.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re choosing a bad data representation to hide things you don’t want to talk about.  I don’t play that game.
> 
> If you want to talk risk, use IFR.  How many deaths per infected person.  Over the last year, it’s about 540,000 -640,000 deaths among 170M-200M cases.  Around one death per 300 infections.  Or one death per 500 people overall.
> 
> ...


No...either the survival rate is above 99% or below 99%.  It is really that simple.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 22, 2021)

Bad news out of Chile.  Despite a very vigorous vaccine program (3rd per capita) cases are still rising.  The herd immunity threshold for this thing must be very high (which begs the question of what happened in South Africa).  Deaths though are on the floor.  It's not like Chile hasn't been careful either having put a round of lockdowns in place in January



			https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-03-20/chile-sets-daily-record-for-coronavirus-cases-even-as-vaccination-drive-plows-ahead
		









						Chile COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Chile Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				











						This Small Country Is Way Ahead in the Covid-19 Vaccine Race
					

Chile is on course to become the first developing country to achieve herd immunity after the South American country lined up shots early and faced little antivaccine sentiment.




					www.wsj.com
				





			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


----------



## watfly (Mar 22, 2021)

As far as I'm concerned Covid is effectively over.   High school football and cheer on, league games on, schools reopening, indoor dining open, theaters etc open.  Other than wearing a mask where required, not making out with strangers and not going to my janky barbershop, I've moved on from any restrictions.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm open to the argument that it's latitude but the states on the northern border are the ones that are rising (it includes Maine and New York BTW).  Considering Canada plateaued first (unless you are going to blame NY and MA), it's not true that the spillage is going the other way.  Again, may not be bordered related but the northern border states are going in the wrong direction.


NY never got to 70/80%, but they still opened up restaurants, bars, gyms, and stadiums.  If course they deserve some blame.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No...either the survival rate is above 99% or below 99%.  It is really that simple.


You want to argue as though 500K people dead is the same as zero people dead, because both reflect a 99%+ survival rate.

I have no interest in having a discussion that misleading.   If you are looking for someone to agree with you, try Hound.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You want to argue as though 500K people dead is the same as zero people dead, because both reflect a 99%+ survival rate.
> 
> I have no interest in having a discussion that misleading.   If you are looking for someone to agree with you, try Hound.


No I just want you to answer a simple black and white question and stop trying to paint it gray. The reality is the answer is yes. The other reality is is yes 500,000 m people died. Stop trying to make something that it’s not.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You seem to be lumping all NPI together.  This is not valid.
> 
> The level of risk needed to justify masks is different from the level of risk needed to justify shutting down factories.  A 10% chance of another half million people dying seems more than enough to justify wearing a mask.  It is not enough to justify shutting schools and factories.
> 
> ...


Even the mask manufacturers say mask don’t work to mitigate your risk of contracting infectious disease.  No wonder cases are high.  Not nearly as high as the hysteria though.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sure.  Survival rate for Russian Roulette is over 83%.
> 
> Wanna play?


Wear a mask.  It’ll catch the bullet.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re choosing a bad data representation to hide things you don’t want to talk about.  I don’t play that game.
> 
> If you want to talk risk, use IFR.  How many deaths per infected person.  Over the last year, it’s about 540,000 -640,000 deaths among 170M-200M cases.  Around one death per 300 infections.  Or one death per 500 people overall.
> 
> ...


One might wonder how Grandparents got older in the absence of mask decade after decade while enjoying their grandchildren.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> NY never got to 70/80%, but they still opened up restaurants, bars, gyms, and stadiums.  If course they deserve some blame.


Cowards like you are to blame.


----------



## N00B (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You want to argue as though 500K people dead is the same as zero people dead, because both reflect a 99%+ survival rate.


Not criticizing your position or reasoning, but as a parent of more than one child (relative ages and impact of COVID restrictions in California surely color the opinion), I don’t understand the ‘for the societal good’ tenor of your comments in this thread.

Yes, 500k+ deaths in 2020 was awful.  If that repeats due to variants it’s also awful, but to date variants haven’t shown any statistically relevant number of ‘breakthrough’ reinfections when vaccinated or deaths as a result of infection post vaccination.

That said, a year in the life of a child or adolescent lost, damaged, or otherwise (in my opinion) has a larger societal impact than the reduction in the average life expectancy by 1yr due to COVID.

I applaud your desire to reopen schools and outdoor spaces to minimize the impact on our youth, but NPI’s to protect those that should they wish it have access to vaccinations, seems a bit against ‘for the societal good’ from a net benefit point of view.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

N00B said:


> Not criticizing your position or reasoning, but as a parent of more than one child (relative ages and impact of COVID restrictions in California surely color the opinion), I don’t understand the ‘for the societal good’ tenor of your comments in this thread.
> 
> Yes, 500k+ deaths in 2020 was awful.  If that repeats due to variants it’s also awful, but to date variants haven’t shown any statistically relevant number of ‘breakthrough’ reinfections when vaccinated or deaths as a result of infection post vaccination.
> 
> ...


I am not arguing for school or park closures to deal with variants.  Masks seem a better option.

I do think we should all still wear masks, in part to deal with variants, and in part to reduce infections as covid declines.

I do not believe that everyone who needs a vaccine has one.  Deaths are still running at 500 to 1000 per day.  Until that number drops below 100, we should assume that there are significant numbers of unvaccinated vulnerable people.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I am not arguing for school or park closures to deal with variants.  Masks seem a better option.
> 
> I do think we should all still wear masks, in part to deal with variants, and in part to reduce infections as covid declines.
> 
> I do not believe that everyone who needs a vaccine has one.  Deaths are still running at 500 to 1000 per day.  Until that number drops below 100, we should assume that there are significant numbers of unvaccinated vulnerable people.


Speaking of deaths.  How 'bout that R-squared?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 22, 2021)

*(1)* The _Washington Post_ just wrote, "Some studies indicate that mask mandates and limitations on group activities such as indoor dining can help slow the spread of the coronavirus, but less clear is why states with greater government-imposed restrictions have not always fared better than those without them." Well, well, well.

*(2)* The _New York Times_ just wrote, "The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery. 'It's almost like it was pulled out of thin air,' said Linsey Marr, an expert on viral transmission at Virginia Tech University." You don't say!

*(3)* Let's compare Midwestern states with lots of restrictions (blue) with Midwestern states with few or no restrictions (red). I'll bet it's just awful in the more open states.


----------



## crush (Mar 22, 2021)

"Before he was Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci was a curious boy in Brooklyn, delivering prescriptions from his father’s pharmacy on his blue Schwinn bicycle," the Simon & Schuster website reveals.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 22, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Speaking of deaths.  How 'bout that R-squared?


I asked earlier why you preferred r^2 to p values.

You never answered.

This one is simple.  There is no serious argument whether masks or dining correlate with covid cases or deaths.  For both masks and dining, p< 0.01

That's why you have to post graphs you found on Twitter and various fringe sites.   The publishable data disagrees with you.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I asked earlier why you preferred r^2 to p values.
> 
> You never answered.
> 
> ...


There's also a correlation between a dog barking inside the house when the mailman walks onto the porch and the mailman walking off the porch - I'd also guess at p < 0.01.

It's a virus - get too close to someone who has it for too long and you will get it. That's the "virus gonna virus" part. Masks have been presented as effective as a vaccine and in the same breath as social distancing - by experts. That's misleading. I liken this to assuming that helmets reduce injuries. In fact, they have found in cycling and snowboarding that wearing a helmet correlates to taking more risk. It's the same with masks. People feel safe when they wear a mask around others. They shouldn't because there's the "people gonna people" part of the equation. "We'll get together and wear masks and everything will be fine." However, most masks are far from perfect, masks aren't consistently worn as they should be, and people take them off as our leaders have regularly demonstrated. I do believe that if you are in a situation in close proximity to people that wearing a mask is a good idea, but in terms of risk, it's not even close to choosing not to be around people or getting a vaccine, or even being outside and distancing a bit.


----------



## crush (Mar 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> There's also a correlation between a dog barking inside the house when the mailman walks onto the porch and the mailman walking off the porch - I'd also guess at p < 0.01.
> 
> It's a virus - get too close to someone who has it for too long and you will get it. That's the "virus gonna virus" part. Masks have been presented as effective as a vaccine and in the same breath as social distancing - by experts. That's misleading. I liken this to assuming that helmets reduce injuries. In fact, they have found in cycling and snowboarding that wearing a helmet correlates to taking more risk. It's the same with masks. People feel safe when they wear a mask around others. They shouldn't because there's the "people gonna people" part of the equation. "We'll get together and wear masks and everything will be fine." However, most masks are far from perfect, masks aren't consistently worn as they should be, and people take them off as our leaders have regularly demonstrated. I do believe that if you are in a situation in close proximity to people that wearing a mask is a good idea, but in terms of risk, it's not even close to choosing not to be around people or getting a vaccine, or even being outside and distancing a bit.


Notice all the shootings bro?  No scam, no plan.  Scam + plan= A Scamplan.  Basically, you come up with a game plan when your scamming the folks.


----------



## crush (Mar 23, 2021)




----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Border crossings?  What fraction of US cases are directly connected to an illegal border crossing?  I’d be amazed if it were as high as 1%.  There just are not that many people crossing each day.  It’s a few thousand on a bad day.  Most of them, like most of us, do not have covid.  Even if 1% of them have covid, that explains about 50 cases per day, out of 50,000.
> 
> To take your analogy, yes, the barn gate is open.  And every day, a few horses wander in or out of the barn.  How does that explain the half million palominos running around last month?
> 
> Domestic transmission is over 99% of cases.  Can we talk about that first?


Yes, and we need to start with beards. F'ing Amish!









						To shave or not to shave? How beards may affect Covid-19 risk | CNN
					

An important part of wearing face masks to reduce Covid-19 risk is that the mask fits snugly to your face. Is it time to give up beards, then? Experts weigh in on the risk and alternatives.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## crush (Mar 23, 2021)

Bump


----------



## crush (Mar 23, 2021)

*Franklin Graham Urges Clergy to Support COVID Vaccines, Says Jesus Would Have Used Them Too*



This is bull crap lie from brother Franklin.  How does he know what Jesus would do?  In fact, Jesus would NOT get the vaccine.  This is BS!!!  Here's the deal.  His father spread some false teaching back in the day, MOO!!!  I was 18 when I heard one of his tapes titled, "Hell."  He said hell was 7 times hotter than fire and because I sinned so much as a teenager, I was heading straight to the dungeon, where gnashing and grinding of teeth is what you do 24/7 ((bring a lot of tooth paste)) and where the snakes are the leaders, spiders, Hitler, Jeff Dummer, Manson and the all greats will be with you.  Plus, Satan or Lucifer will be there as well.  His old man went around scaring the shit out of all of us, MOO!!  Billy said all we have to do is say a prayer and were saved.  He did say you really have to mean it in your heart, so he told the folks at Anaheim Stadium you must walk down to the field to show the folks and God you mean it this time.  I knew many people who asked Jesus to come into heart on Sunday but then on Friday and Saturday nights they kicked Jesus out of their heart.  They would repeat this action over and over.  Anyway, let's get real folks is my point.  Scare tactics is not the answer to a loving relationship with the creator.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> There's also a correlation between a dog barking inside the house when the mailman walks onto the porch and the mailman walking off the porch - I'd also guess at p < 0.01.
> 
> It's a virus - get too close to someone who has it for too long and you will get it. That's the "virus gonna virus" part. Masks have been presented as effective as a vaccine and in the same breath as social distancing - by experts. That's misleading. I liken this to assuming that helmets reduce injuries. In fact, they have found in cycling and snowboarding that wearing a helmet correlates to taking more risk. It's the same with masks. People feel safe when they wear a mask around others. They shouldn't because there's the "people gonna people" part of the equation. "We'll get together and wear masks and everything will be fine." However, most masks are far from perfect, masks aren't consistently worn as they should be, and people take them off as our leaders have regularly demonstrated. I do believe that if you are in a situation in close proximity to people that wearing a mask is a good idea, but in terms of risk, it's not even close to choosing not to be around people or getting a vaccine, or even being outside and distancing a bit.


I would propose that perhaps the dog‘s barking causes the mailman to appear.  The presence of ears on the mailman hints at a possible mechanism for this association.  More research is needed....

It is hard to explain to people why they should wear something that only works some of the time.

It is true that, if 3/4 of transmissions do not happen, the disease will die out.  This is the logic behind herd immunity, after all.  And the strategy works no matter how you get to that 3/4- masks, distance, recovered patients, and vaccines are all similar in that respect.   But as soon as you explain that you want people to do something that fails 1/4 of the time, they get confused.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I asked earlier why you preferred r^2 to p values.
> 
> You never answered.
> 
> ...


Because P-values are useless if you aren't going to compare cases to deaths.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 23, 2021)

*(1)* The _Washington Post_ just wrote, "Some studies indicate that mask mandates and limitations on group activities such as indoor dining can help slow the spread of the coronavirus, but less clear is why states with greater government-imposed restrictions have not always fared better than those without them." Well, well, well.

*(2)* The _New York Times_ just wrote, "The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery. 'It's almost like it was pulled out of thin air,' said Linsey Marr, an expert on viral transmission at Virginia Tech University." You don't say!

*(3)* Let's compare Midwestern states with lots of restrictions (blue) with Midwestern states with few or no restrictions (red). I'll bet it's just awful in the more open states.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 23, 2021)

crush said:


> *Franklin Graham Urges Clergy to Support COVID Vaccines, Says Jesus Would Have Used Them Too*
> 
> View attachment 10455
> 
> This is bull crap lie from brother Franklin.  How does he know what Jesus would do?  In fact, Jesus would NOT get the vaccine.  This is BS!!!  Here's the deal.  His father spread some false teaching back in the day, MOO!!!  I was 18 when I heard one of his tapes titled, "Hell."  He said hell was 7 times hotter than fire and because I sinned so much as a teenager, I was heading straight to the dungeon, where gnashing and grinding of teeth is what you do 24/7 ((bring a lot of tooth paste)) and where the snakes are the leaders, spiders, Hitler, Jeff Dummer, Manson and the all greats will be with you.  Plus, Satan or Lucifer will be there as well.  His old man went around scaring the shit out of all of us, MOO!!  Billy said all we have to do is say a prayer and were saved.  He did say you really have to mean so he told the folks at Anaheim Stadium you must walk down to the field to show the folks and God you mean it this time.  I knew many people who asked Jesus to come into heart on Sunday but then on Friday and Saturday nights they kicked Jesus out of their heart.  They would repeat this action over and over.  Anyway, let's get real folks is my point.  Scare tactics is not the answer to a loving relationship with the creator.


The Pharisees are very effective and a part of the Psy-Ops.


----------



## crush (Mar 23, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The Pharisees are very effective and a part of the Psy-Ops.


Oh yes.  They 100% were behind the death of Christ.  Not everyone who says, "Lord, Lord" is right with lord.  Lucifer was the most beautiful and power of all God's Angels.  He wanted the power bro so he and his pals took on Michael the Arch Angel and his thousands of Angles and duked it out.  Michael kicked his ass with the others and Satan was kicked out of heaven, just like that.  Adam & Eve got tricked by Lucifer as "the man" and the rest is history.  Adam tried to go back to the Garden but an Angel stood at the entrance and no one is allowed back until Christ comes back.  The first time Jesus came he was a baby, a lamb, carpenter, did miracles and many other wonderful things.  The second time he comes, he will be a Lion from the line of Judah and will bring swift judgement.  You see, our justice system is corrupt around the world.  Most are blackmailed.  No more hiding everyone.  Time to expose your deeds and repent.  Where would old Lucifer be hiding in plane site Bruddah?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It is true that, if 3/4 of transmissions do not happen, the disease will die out.  This is the logic behind herd immunity, after all.  And the strategy works no matter how you get to that 3/4- masks, distance, recovered patients, and vaccines are all similar in that respect.   But as soon as you explain that you want people to do something that fails 1/4 of the time, they get confused.


Herd immunity takes place in the absence of transmission?


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 23, 2021)

Do We Need Mask Mandates? | City Journal
					

The science suggests that more states should consider rescinding them.




					www.city-journal.org


----------



## dad4 (Mar 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Do We Need Mask Mandates? | City Journal
> 
> 
> The science suggests that more states should consider rescinding them.
> ...


Connor Harris is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, where he focuses on infrastructure, transportation, and housing policy.  His writing has appeared in publications such as City Journal, the New York Post, and the Harvard Political Review. Harris graduated from Harvard University in 2016 with a B.A. in mathematics and physics.

Your article‘s author is less qualified than I am.  Think about that.  You’re hunting around the internet and reposting things from someone less qualified than Dad4.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Connor Harris is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, where he focuses on infrastructure, transportation, and housing policy.  His writing has appeared in publications such as City Journal, the New York Post, and the Harvard Political Review. Harris graduated from Harvard University in 2016 with a B.A. in mathematics and physics.
> 
> Your article‘s author is less qualified than I am.  Think about that.  You’re hunting around the internet and reposting things from someone less qualified than Dad4.


What did he miss? Is he qualified to provide the R-squared that you are still avoiding.


----------



## watfly (Mar 23, 2021)

It's pretty simple, epidemiologists shouldn't be making health policy.  They deserve a seat at the table with doctors, pediatricians, social scientists, economists, mental health experts, educators etc.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 23, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> What did he miss? Is he qualified to provide the R-squared that you are still avoiding.


If you want to make a point about correlation coefficients, make it.  Please do better than “Weather has a large correlation coefficient, therefore nothing else has any impact.”

So far, you seem to like to trash talk without bothering to chain two coherent thoughts together.


----------



## espola (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you want to make a point about correlation coefficients, make it.  Please do better than “Weather has a large correlation coefficient, therefore nothing else has any impact.”
> 
> So far, you seem to like to trash talk without bothering to chain two coherent thoughts together.


Ask him a question involving percentages.  I'll make the popcorn.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 23, 2021)

LA county Unemployment hit a whopping 12% in January.  CA EDD says the County lost 562,000 jobs in 2020.  143,000 more than first estimated.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 23, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> LA county Unemployment hit a whopping 12% in January.  CA EDD says the County lost 562,000 jobs in 2020.  143,000 more than first estimated.


Not really surprising.  Just anecdote, but if you drive down Ventura Blvd in the Val you see lots of shops closing (I know of a handful of restaurants, couple hair salons, a vet clinic, a few stores, a bike repair shop, 3 karate studios).  Homeless situation has gotten more out of control with pop up encampments all over various points in the city and under freeway overpasses.  Only places that seem to be thriving on Ventura seem to be the weed shops and liquor stores.


----------



## watfly (Mar 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Not really surprising.  Just anecdote, but if you drive down Ventura Blvd in the Val you see lots of shops closing (I know of a handful of restaurants, couple hair salons, a vet clinic, a few stores, a bike repair shop, 3 karate studios).  Homeless situation has gotten more out of control with pop up encampments all over various points in the city and under freeway overpasses.  Only places that seem to be thriving on Ventura seem to be the weed shops and liquor stores.


A bike repair shop should be thriving during Covid.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> A bike repair shop should be thriving during Covid.


My neighbor owns a bike shop.....I can confirm your theory is true, at least for him.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 23, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> LA county Unemployment hit a whopping 12% in January.  CA EDD says the County lost 562,000 jobs in 2020.  143,000 more than first estimated.


*Florida's* seasonally adjusted *unemployment rate* is now 4.8 percent *in* January 2021, which is up just one and a half percent from a year ago. What the p-value on this?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> A bike repair shop should be thriving during Covid.


Thrift shop too (near cold water). Would think in a downturn they’d be busy


----------



## dad4 (Mar 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> *Florida's* seasonally adjusted *unemployment rate* is now 4.8 percent *in* January 2021, which is up just one and a half percent from a year ago. What the p-value on this?


For n=1? P is not defined.  If you want to do stats, you need more data points, like unemployment rates for Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you want to make a point about correlation coefficients, make it.  Please do better than “Weather has a large correlation coefficient, therefore nothing else has any impact.”
> 
> So far, you seem to like to trash talk without bothering to chain two coherent thoughts together.


I was thinking that very thing about the glorified garbage you've been posting.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Ask him a question involving percentages.  I'll make the popcorn.


Popcorn is bad for your dentures


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> For n=1? P is not defined.  If you want to do stats, you need more data points, like unemployment rates for Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.


Australia's unemployment rate topped 8%.  It's currently at 5.8%.  So worse than Florida.  The one thing you can say about it is that with the lockdowns ending, they are having a quick recovery.









						‘Surprisingly large’ fall in unemployment shows job market improving faster than expected
					

The national unemployment rate falls to 5.8 per cent, with economists hailing evidence that the labour market is improving much faster than most people expected




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## dad4 (Mar 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Australia's unemployment rate topped 8%.  It's currently at 5.8%.  So worse than Florida.  The one thing you can say about it is that with the lockdowns ending, they are having a quick recovery.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That points to a claim that, economically, you don't want to be in the middle.  Half hearted attempts to contain the outbreak may be worse than either extreme.  ( Fully open or full containment.)


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 23, 2021)

Sad news.








						Point Loma High School Cancels 2021 Football Season After 1 Game
					

Point Loma High School officials announced they were canceling their 2021 football season after playing just one game.




					www.nbcsandiego.com


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That points to a claim that, economically, you don't want to be in the middle.  Half hearted attempts to contain the outbreak may be worse than either extreme.  ( Fully open or full containment.)


agree with this. Hawaii enacted very strict policies including indoor dining, a quarantine for travelers and outdoor restrictions. But they left the door and borders open if you quarantined or worked for the airlines.  A few quarantine violations and an outbreak at a flight attendant training and it went south. Worst unemployment in the us, massive damage to their tourist industry where 1/5 businesses have closed and while their results are better than some places they still got the virus.  As I’ve been telling you forever: it is an all or nothing proposition (not really nothing but certainly what you’d regard as nothing). La had the strictest measures outside of Hawaii in the us and still ended where it did economically and virus’s wise.


----------



## watfly (Mar 23, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> My neighbor owns a bike shop.....I can confirm your theory is true, at least for him.


My buddy works for the 2nd largest parts wholesaler, he's selling in a quarter what he'd normally sell in a year.  Their only problem is getting product.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> For n=1? P is not defined.  If you want to do stats, you need more data points, like unemployment rates for Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> agree with this. Hawaii enacted very strict policies including indoor dining, a quarantine for travelers and outdoor restrictions. But they left the door and borders open if you quarantined or worked for the airlines.  A few quarantine violations and an outbreak at a flight attendant training and it went south. Worst unemployment in the us, massive damage to their tourist industry where 1/5 businesses have closed and while their results are better than some places they still got the virus.  As I’ve been telling you forever: it is an all or nothing proposition (not really nothing but certainly what you’d regard as nothing). La had the strictest measures outside of Hawaii in the us and still ended where it did economically and virus’s wise.


I think we are kind of accustomed to treating most rules like we treat speed limits.  The idea of a $1000 fine for a dinner party sounds like tyrrany.  

Newsom should have had to pay a serious fine for the French Laundry dinner.  Proportionate to income and assets, so that it is big enough to get his attention, and help him remember not to do it again.  Same for the rest of us, when we do something similar.

Not because I think he’s an evil guy.  I would just rather live in a place which is capable of having rules when we need them.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think we are kind of accustomed to treating most rules like we treat speed limits.  The idea of a $1000 fine for a dinner party sounds like tyrrany.
> 
> Newsom should have had to pay a serious fine for the French Laundry dinner.  Proportionate to income and assets, so that it is big enough to get his attention, and help him remember not to do it again.  Same for the rest of us, when we do something similar.
> 
> Not because I think he’s an evil guy.  I would just rather live in a place which is capable of having rules when we need them.


What nonsense.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think we are kind of accustomed to treating most rules like we treat speed limits.  The idea of a $1000 fine for a dinner party sounds like tyrrany.
> 
> Newsom should have had to pay a serious fine for the French Laundry dinner.  Proportionate to income and assets, so that it is big enough to get his attention, and help him remember not to do it again.  Same for the rest of us, when we do something similar.
> 
> Not because I think he’s an evil guy.  I would just rather live in a place which is capable of having rules when we need them.


The protests in April may broke everything. Unless you were prepared to crack down on them (even peaceful ones and with violent force if necessary) you’d always get to the dinner parties. Because you can’t have restrictions by veto— once one thing has special exemption everyone feels entitled to one.


----------



## happy9 (Mar 23, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> My neighbor owns a bike shop.....I can confirm your theory is true, at least for him.


Many bike shops are thriving, even with a shortage of bikes and bike parts.  The used bike market has skyrocketed.   My local shop has been booked 4-6 weeks out since May 2020.  They were by appointment only until recently.  They finally decided to open their doors for daily traffic.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

Not even mask manufacturers are as religious, about mask wearing as an infectious disease deterrent, as some of the self proclaimed "qualified".


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 24, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Many bike shops are thriving, even with a shortage of bikes and bike parts.  The used bike market has skyrocketed.   My local shop has been booked 4-6 weeks out since May 2020.  They were by appointment only until recently.  They finally decided to open their doors for daily traffic.


I have an appointment in late April. Good for them!


----------



## crush (Mar 24, 2021)

Why is Franklin giving us the opinion of Christ and what Christ would do?

"The internet is full of articles, theories, data, and opinions concerning the COVID-19 vaccines—both positive and negative. There’s a lot out there for you to read. I have been asked my opinion about the vaccine by the media and others. I have even been asked if Jesus were physically walking on earth now, would He be an advocate for vaccines. My answer was that based on the parable of the Good Samaritan in the Bible, I would have to say—*yes, I think Jesus Christ would advocate for people using vaccines* and medicines to treat suffering and save lives. In this Scripture passage, Jesus told about a man beaten and wounded, lying on the roadside as religious leaders passed by and didn’t help. But a Samaritan, considered a social outcast of the day, becomes the hero of the story when he stops and cares for the injured man—pouring oil and wine, which were the top medicines of the day, on the man’s wounds. We also know that Jesus went from town to town healing “every disease and sickness.” He came to save life—to offer us eternal life. Did Jesus need a vaccine Himself? Of course not. He is God.

So, *my own personal opinion is that from what we know, a vaccine can help save lives and prevent suffering*. Samaritan’s Purse has operated COVID-19 emergency field hospitals, and we have seen the suffering firsthand. I also have staff and their family members who contracted the virus and spent weeks on a ventilator and months hospitalized as a result—I don’t want anyone to have to go through that. Vaccines have worked for polio, smallpox, measles, the flu and so many other deadly illnesses—why not for this virus? Since there are different vaccines available, my recommendation is that people do their research, talk to their doctor, and pray about it to determine which vaccine, if any, is right for them. *My wife and I have both had the vaccine*; and at 68 years old, I want to get as many more miles out of these old bones as possible! 

This is a sales pitch of lies from a phony.  He's the same guy that says all you have to do is say a prayer and all is good.  Liar!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

3 Hawaii residents fully vaccinated against COVID-19 are infected with the coronavirus

Shocking!!


----------



## crush (Mar 24, 2021)

Honestly everyone, do you believe these three guys?  What kind of info commercial is this?  One guy lied so much we went to war.  I have friend who has no legs because of his lies.  The other dude, well we know what he lied about.  The last guy, just wait until we all find out what the hell he was up to.  These three really do care about all of us, dont they.   I can hear it in their voice.  Sad!!!

"It could save your life."  Ha, it will also infect you with the Rona and then you could die.  Good luck folks!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

crush said:


> Why is Franklin giving us the opinion of Christ and what Christ would do?
> 
> "The internet is full of articles, theories, data, and opinions concerning the COVID-19 vaccines—both positive and negative. There’s a lot out there for you to read. I have been asked my opinion about the vaccine by the media and others. I have even been asked if Jesus were physically walking on earth now, would He be an advocate for vaccines. My answer was that based on the parable of the Good Samaritan in the Bible, I would have to say—*yes, I think Jesus Christ would advocate for people using vaccines* and medicines to treat suffering and save lives. In this Scripture passage, Jesus told about a man beaten and wounded, lying on the roadside as religious leaders passed by and didn’t help. But a Samaritan, considered a social outcast of the day, becomes the hero of the story when he stops and cares for the injured man—pouring oil and wine, which were the top medicines of the day, on the man’s wounds. We also know that Jesus went from town to town healing “every disease and sickness.” He came to save life—to offer us eternal life. Did Jesus need a vaccine Himself? Of course not. He is God.
> 
> ...


Good ole Matthew

9“All this I will give You,” he said, “if You will fall down and worship me.” 10“Away from Me, Satan!” Jesus declared. “For it is written: ‘Worship the Lord your God and serve Him only.’” 11Then the devil left Him, and angels came and ministered to Him.…


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

It's been over six weeks since Iowa dropped all state-level COVID restrictions.

Well, how about this: hospitalized patients are down 54 percent.

I promise you that when the governor lifted restrictions, the hysterics were not saying: "If you drop restrictions, hospitalized patients will plummet 54 percent."

They had rather more grim predictions.

And yet here we are -- once again.

To the retort that cases have leveled off in Iowa in recent days and have stopped their steep descent, the same is true of all 11 other Midwestern states, with their variety of restrictions/openings.

Now in case you needed further evidence that so-called mainstream sources have exaggerated the COVID threat, note this survey from Gallup and Franklin Templeton asking people what they believe the likelihood of hospitalization is for a given COVID-19 "case."

The correct answer is between one and five percent. Note how few people get the answer right. *A strong plurality have somehow managed to become so uninformed that they think the answer is over 50%:*


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I would propose that perhaps the dog‘s barking causes the mailman to appear.  The presence of ears on the mailman hints at a possible mechanism for this association.  More research is needed....
> 
> It is hard to explain to people why they should wear something that only works some of the time.
> 
> It is true that, if 3/4 of transmissions do not happen, the disease will die out.  This is the logic behind herd immunity, after all.  And the strategy works no matter how you get to that 3/4- masks, distance, recovered patients, and vaccines are all similar in that respect.   But as soon as you explain that you want people to do something that fails 1/4 of the time, they get confused.


It's even harder to explain it when people are initially misled about whether masks should be worn and then expect them to blindly follow "new" studies that appear to contradict old studies about mask efficacy. Of course, you didn't address the primary point of my post - the "human" element of people believing that masks are as effective as a vaccine (due to misinformation) and the risks they take with masks on that they otherwise wouldn't. On top of that pile throw on the fact that experts' predictions are regularly wildly inaccurate. Maybe these people you reference aren't the only ones who are confused.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's even harder to explain it when people are initially misled about whether masks should be worn and then expect them to blindly follow "new" studies that appear to contradict old studies about mask efficacy. Of course, you didn't address the primary point of my post - the "human" element of people believing that masks are as effective as a vaccine (due to misinformation) and the risks they take with masks on that they otherwise wouldn't. On top of that pile throw on the fact that experts' predictions are regularly wildly inaccurate. Maybe these people you reference aren't the only ones who are confused.


I was writing to the human element.  We have an easy time understanding oven mitts.  When you wear an oven mitt, your fingers don’t get burned.   If you grab a hot pan without one, you do get burned.  It’s simple.  

As you add uncertainty to the situation, it gets harder to understand, so the rule gets harder to follow.

We have a difficult time getting people to use condoms because the risk half is uncertain.  You do not know whether the other person has a disease.

With covid, the risk half and the prevention half are both uncertain.  You do not know whether someone is infected, and you do not know whether either of your masks will prevent transmission.  It feels like asking people to wear oven mitts, when the mitts fail half the time and no one knows which pans are hot.  And it won’t even be you who gets burned. 

So many people default to believing that masks always work- and take higher risks,  Or they believe that masks never work- and do not wear them.

Either assumption is easier than getting your head around the fact that my mask doesn’t protect me, doesn’t necessarily protect you, but somehow does protect everyone.  It’s a good description of any 70% effective health measure, but it just sounds wrong.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I was writing to the human element.  We have an easy time understanding oven mitts.  When you wear an oven mitt, your fingers don’t get burned.   If you grab a hot pan without one, you do get burned.  It’s simple.
> 
> As you add uncertainty to the situation, it gets harder to understand, so the rule gets harder to follow.
> 
> ...


Remember that time they shut the economy down, and let our parents die alone because of infectious ovens and unsafe sex?  Good grief.  I'd rather have P-values than the mindless and disparate analogies.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I was writing to the human element.  We have an easy time understanding oven mitts.  When you wear an oven mitt, your fingers don’t get burned.   If you grab a hot pan without one, you do get burned.  It’s simple.
> 
> As you add uncertainty to the situation, it gets harder to understand, so the rule gets harder to follow.
> 
> ...


You are still missing the human element of trust. It's the messenger more than the message that's the problem. 

In terms of communication, go back to first principles. COVID is a virus that is definitely spread through saliva droplets and possibly through smaller particles. When worn correctly, a mask reduces the spread of these particles to some extent for a finite period of time. Being outside and several feet apart significantly reduces risk whether wearing a mask or not.


----------



## watfly (Mar 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The protests in April may broke everything. Unless you were prepared to crack down on them (even peaceful ones and with violent force if necessary) you’d always get to the dinner parties. Because you can’t have restrictions by veto— once one thing has special exemption everyone feels entitled to one.


While I agree and it certainly proved that many restrictions were political, arbitrary and not credible, I think its too easy to scapegoat the protests and French Laundry.  Our country because of its freedoms and pioneer spirit is ill designed to handle a pandemic.  Like EOTL mentioned its the American Way, although his definition of that is cross burning rednecks, the true definition is creativity, resourcefulness and self reliance.  We overcome obstacles, not hide from them.  For those that had an incentive to overcome the obstacles, like small business (unlike the public teachers unions), they weren't willing to put up with the government demands to hide at home when they could operate successfully with some creative solutions.  Furthermore, the Covid risk is relative.  Some people have more risks unrelated to Covid at their job or walking the streets in their neighborhood.

With more and more government involvement we seeing less self reliance.  This is particularly true in the big cities where everything is available at your finger tips and you rely on more government services like public transportation.  Which in turn is why the big cities are bastions of left wing ideology that government should always be there to bail us out. 

I think the protests and the French Laundry weren't so much a green light to ignore certain restrictions but more a rationalization for already existing behavior, and/or evidence for conclusions that most of us had already reached previously.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 24, 2021)

watfly said:


> While I agree and it certainly proved that many restrictions were political, arbitrary and not credible, I think its too easy to scapegoat the protests and French Laundry.  Our country because of its freedoms and pioneer spirit is ill designed to handle a pandemic.  Like EOTL mentioned its the American Way, although his definition of that is cross burning rednecks, the true definition is creativity, resourcefulness and self reliance.  We overcome obstacles, not hide from them.  For those that had an incentive to overcome the obstacles, like small business (unlike the public teachers unions), they weren't willing to put up with the government demands to hide at home when they could operate successfully with some creative solutions.  Furthermore, the Covid risk is relative.  Some people have more risks unrelated to Covid at their job or walking the streets in their neighborhood.
> 
> With more and more government involvement we seeing less self reliance.  This is particularly true in the big cities where everything is available at your finger tips and you rely on more government services like public transportation.  Which in turn is why the big cities are bastions of left wing ideology that government should always be there to bail us out.
> 
> I think the protests and the French Laundry weren't so much a green light to ignore certain restrictions but more a rationalization for already existing behavior, and/or evidence for conclusions that most of us had already reached previously.


Yes and no.  I agree that many of us had reached the conclusion previously, but what made it different is that it gave people permission to break the social compact that "we are all in this together" because clearly we weren't.  The antilockdown protests, for example, were received with widespread condemnation.  The argument for the Floyd protests was that this was important since police brutality was costing lives particularly against a disadvantage class.  But the problem was that many people had things which were also import that they were being asked to sacrifice: funerals, saying goodbye to a loved one, businesses built over a life time, the education of their kids, worship, mental well being, weddings.  From there it spirals out....the 20 year old guy who doesn't want to go celibate for a year, going to see grandma for what might be her last thanksgiving, the Dangie Bros' kegger to celebrate their graduation next door to me.  Remember at the time the big argument was well if they can go and protest why can't I go worship my God at church?

It would have been impossible in the US anyway to suppress the protests.  They are protected by the first amendment.  Would have required a President to likely suspend the Constitution, to tell SCOTUS to go stuff it, and to then suppress the resulting backlash.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

You'd think Phil Murphy, governor of New Jersey -- which has the worst COVID death rate of any American state -- would have the decency to keep his mouth shut on the subject.

Well, you'd be wrong.

When asked about Texas' decision to repeal its statewide mask mandate, Murphy replied that he was "stunned" and that he "couldn't conceive of lifting a mask mandate inside."

How about we see how both states are doing?





(Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

California, meanwhile, has seen its numbers come way down from their peak. They are of course pretending that their lockdown did the trick. The problem is this: Nevada didn't lock down as much and Arizona locked down even less, and yet:



​(Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

On January 20, Germany mandated medical-grade masks. That must have done it, right?

Well, as it turns out, Angela Merkel recently sought an even more barbaric lockdown, even after instituting that mandate, although thankfully she had to back down. I wonder why those medical masks didn't solve the problem:










(Source: World Health Organization)


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

Today on Twitter a notorious Doomer cited east/southeast Asia's numbers as evidence that the public-health recommendations work (but of course those countries tried all different approaches and every one worked fine, so just maybe there's something else going on here?).

Cambodia has not had a single death. Is that because of Cambodia's state-of-the-art public-health establishment? Cambodia was number 83 among countries in terms of pandemic preparedness.

I did see this headline, from Reuters: "Cambodian Villagers Trust Magic Scarecrows to Ward Off Coronavirus."

(Don't knock it: it's much cheaper than anything Fauci has recommended, and it seems to have worked for Cambodia.)

Overall, I do think the tide is at last turning in our direction.

But you're still surrounded by crazy people.


----------



## crush (Mar 24, 2021)

Sitting at car wash watching CNN for the first time in months.  Guns and more guns and so many negative stories about those who died.  This is sick


----------



## dad4 (Mar 24, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> ​
> On January 20, Germany mandated medical-grade masks. That must have done it, right?
> 
> Well, as it turns out, Angela Merkel recently sought an even more barbaric lockdown, even after instituting that mandate, although thankfully she had to back down. I wonder why those medical masks didn't solve the problem:
> ...


Wow.   She wanted to do something EVEN MORE BRUTAL THAN WEARING A MASK!!!!!

That sounds awful.  Worse than the Thirty Years War.  Is anyone left alive?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Wow.   She wanted to do something EVEN MORE BRUTAL THAN WEARING A MASK!!!!!
> 
> That sounds awful.  Worse than the Thirty Years War.  Is anyone left alive?


Only in body.


----------



## espola (Mar 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes and no.  I agree that many of us had reached the conclusion previously, but what made it different is that it gave people permission to break the social compact that "we are all in this together" because clearly we weren't.  The antilockdown protests, for example, were received with widespread condemnation.  The argument for the Floyd protests was that this was important since police brutality was costing lives particularly against a disadvantage class.  But the problem was that many people had things which were also import that they were being asked to sacrifice: funerals, saying goodbye to a loved one, businesses built over a life time, the education of their kids, worship, mental well being, weddings.  From there it spirals out....the 20 year old guy who doesn't want to go celibate for a year, going to see grandma for what might be her last thanksgiving, the Dangie Bros' kegger to celebrate their graduation next door to me.  Remember at the time the big argument was well if they can go and protest why can't I go worship my God at church?
> 
> It would have been impossible in the US anyway to suppress the protests.  They are protected by the first amendment.  Would have required a President to likely suspend the Constitution, to tell SCOTUS to go stuff it, and to then suppress the resulting backlash.


Do us all a favor.  When this is all over, don't write a history of it.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 24, 2021)

espola said:


> Do us all a favor.  When this is all over, don't write a history of it.


Meh. It wasn’t even my argument. My friend Megan who writes for the Washington post, among others, wrote about it at the time.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 24, 2021)

espola said:


> Do us all a favor.  When this is all over, don't write a history of it.


Hanapaa!


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 24, 2021)

Texas still headed downward.  It's almost as if lines of latitude are more important than policies......doesn't mean it won't go up....it looks like the line of rising cases is moving southward from the Canadian border.









						Number of newly reported coronavirus cases decline in Texas
					

The number of newly reported coronavirus virus cases in Texas has declined and the rolling average of cases in the state is down 36. 1%. The Texas health department on Sunday reported 1,905 new cases, compared to 3,673 newly reported cases on Saturday. Data from Johns Hopkins University shows...




					cbsaustin.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Texas still headed downward.  It's almost as if lines of latitude are more important than policies......doesn't mean it won't go up....it looks like the line of rising cases is moving southward from the Canadian border.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Is J&J going to be delivered in time to avoid much of a rise in cases? If Israel is any indication, CFR should be much lower regardless of a rise in cases.


----------



## crush (Mar 25, 2021)

Confirmed!!!  Kill the unborn and kill the elderly get's you a job.  Good job team!!! 
Levine will now oversee Health and Human Services offices and programs across the U.S.

In Pennsylvania, Levine mismanaged the pandemic last year instituting an order that required nursing homes and other assisted care facilities to admit COVID-19 patients. Like its neighbor New York, Pennsylvania’s order* put Covid positive patients in facilities with those most at risk of death* from the virus, the elderly and people with disabilities.


----------



## crush (Mar 25, 2021)




----------



## crush (Mar 25, 2021)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 25, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10464


You talking about the 2016 election still?


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 10465


WTG Cali!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You talking about the 2016 election still?


I remember your disappearing act.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Texas still headed downward.  It's almost as if lines of latitude are more important than policies......doesn't mean it won't go up....it looks like the line of rising cases is moving southward from the Canadian border.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


latitude doesn’t explain why TX is ahead of FL.

I think it helps to look at the post-peak change to variant and the post-peak change to behavior.

FL is halfway into a nasty post-peak change to variant.  All three have a significant post-peak change to behavior.  TX dropped the mask mandate, FL has spring break, and CA opened restaurants.  

The other question is what happened to Michigan.  NY shot themselves in the foot by opening up to save Cuomo.  But why MI?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Partial answer to why MI has had a nasty March:









						Many Michigan COVID restrictions eased starting today
					

The state of Michigan is easing COVID-19 pandemic restrictions in several areas including restaurants and bars.




					www.clickondetroit.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> latitude doesn’t explain why TX is ahead of FL.
> 
> I think it helps to look at the post-peak change to variant and the post-peak change to behavior.
> 
> FL is halfway into a nasty post-peak change to variant. All three have a significant post-peak change to behavior. TX dropped the mask mandate, FL has spring break, and CA opened restaurants.


And yet all 3 have about the same cases per million and deaths per million.

One has to ask themselves...why did CA shut down if the outcome is the same as TX and FL?

I posted above a graph that shows CA still has 70% or so of all students not in any kind of in person class. TX and FL have had in person classes now since the fall.

Just on the kid side alone, CA has screwed parents/kids. And especially the poor and lower middle class. And for what benefit?

It has been hard to justify what CA has done for a long time. And as the data comes in...even more so.


dad4 said:


> Partial answer to why MI has had a nasty March:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is fascinating coming from you. So already we can see the affect right?

Cases started going up early March. Lets say March 5. So an immediate rise after mandates lifted...and only a slight loosening at that.



But when we look at TX who dropped ALL restrictions within a few days of MI...we see ZERO rise. The decline continues.

So square that with your never ending restaurant theory? If MI opening up partially their restaurants is the reason for their bad month, how come TX who opened everything is not having a bad month?

By the way what are you going to blame for the lack of rise in cases in TX? You were aghast they opened up.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And yet all 3 have about the same cases per million and deaths per million.
> 
> One has to ask themselves...why did CA shut down if the outcome is the same as TX and FL?
> 
> ...


March weather in TX might be a little different from MI. Could be a second factor there.

Sorry.  The system is complicated.  You don't get to look at only one thing and draw a meaningful conclusion.

You look at ten things in 1000 places, run a regression, and see whether there are any of the important things are controllable.

The controllable elements are things like masks, dining, outdoors, distance, ventilation, and vaccines.

You going to help with any of these, or are you still playing for team virus?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> March weather in TX might be a little different from MI. Could be a second factor there.
> 
> Sorry.  The system is complicated.  You don't get to look at only one thing and draw a meaningful conclusion.
> 
> ...


Some of these things have more of an impact than others (often by several magnitudes: case in point masks are NOT as good as vaccines)...as I mentioned before, it has to be more of a coincidence that the states in the northern latitudes (or alternatively near the Canadian border) are rising or stalled.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Some of these things have more of an impact than others (often by several magnitudes: case in point masks are NOT as good as vaccines)...as I mentioned before, it has to be more of a coincidence that the states in the northern latitudes (or alternatively near the Canadian border) are rising or stalled.


Several magnitudes?  

Nice rhetoric, but do you have any evidence that one thing is 10^4 times as good as another?

I do not think that phrase means what you think it does.

Masks cause about a 70% decrease in transmission.  2 dose vaccines seem likely to cause around a 95% decrease.

Less than one order of magnitude.  Not "several".


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sorry. The system is complicated. You don't get to look at only one thing and draw a meaningful conclusion


That is funny.

Didn't you just post that maybe the bad month was due to restaurants open?

I get whiplash sometimes watching you explain why something happened somewhere and then have a different reason why another place who did the same thing doesn't count when called on it


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is funny.
> 
> Didn't you just post that maybe the bad month was due to restaurants open?
> 
> I get whiplash sometimes watching you explain why something happened somewhere and then have a different reason why another place who did the same thing doesn't count when called on it


I was looking for what changed in MI between Feb and March.  

If you have a better option, put it out there.  

Variant b.1.1.7 isn’t a big deal there yet (I think).  Wetather in March has been better than Feb.

But, if you have a real option for what went wrong in MI, post it.

Or, keep reposting misleading graphs from right wing twitter feeds.  Perhaps another upper midwest chart that ignores most cases because it excludes the fall of 2020?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Several magnitudes?
> 
> Nice rhetoric, but do you have any evidence that one thing is 10^4 times as good as another?
> 
> ...


Sorry this is probably one of the most divorced thing you've said from the real world.  Despite the mask mandates, Europe wasn't able to contain a winter wave let alone a resurgent wave now.  Los Angeles despite having one since spring ended up as one of the worst places in the US.  But the vaccine has caused a tremendous drop in Israel and the UK (though with the UK it's hard to divorce from lockdown protocols).  The 2 numbers are close only in your theoretical fantasy world.  One works, the other one doesn't, in controlling waves.

It's probably because your 70% exists in a world where people like Fauci can keep their masks on when the cameras aren't rolling, part of the population doesn't say no thanks, people like Biden wear proper fitting ones without them having to be touched and pulled up by dirty fingers constantly, people without medical training like kids suddenly learn to properly wear mask, people don't constantly wash cloth mask and dispose of surgical masks after a single use, gaiters and bandanas aren't allowed, people don't get encouraged to use them to engage in more risky behavior, people use them for limited amounts of time to reduce short term exposures, people replace them if they get wet and people can stand to use them even in the home.


----------



## espola (Mar 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Sorry this is probably one of the most divorced thing you've said from the real world.  Despite the mask mandates, Europe wasn't able to contain a winter wave let alone a resurgent wave now.  Los Angeles despite having one since spring ended up as one of the worst places in the US.  But the vaccine has caused a tremendous drop in Israel and the UK (though with the UK it's hard to divorce from lockdown protocols).  The 2 numbers are close only in your theoretical fantasy world.  One works, the other one doesn't, in controlling waves.
> 
> It's probably because your 70% exists in a world where people like Fauci can keep their masks on when the cameras aren't rolling, part of the population doesn't say no thanks, people like Biden wear proper fitting ones without them having to be touched and pulled up by dirty fingers constantly, people without medical training like kids suddenly learn to properly wear mask, people don't constantly wash cloth mask and dispose of surgical masks after a single use, gaiters and bandanas aren't allowed, people don't get encouraged to use them to engage in more risky behavior, people use them for limited amounts of time to reduce short term exposures, people replace them if they get wet and people can stand to use them even in the home.


Totally missed the point.


----------



## watfly (Mar 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is funny.
> 
> Didn't you just post that maybe the bad month was due to restaurants open?
> 
> I get whiplash sometimes watching you explain why something happened somewhere and then have a different reason why another place who did the same thing doesn't count when called on it


Its called mental gymnastics...Olympic level.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Sorry this is probably one of the most divorced thing you've said from the real world.  Despite the mask mandates, Europe wasn't able to contain a winter wave let alone a resurgent wave now.  Los Angeles despite having one since spring ended up as one of the worst places in the US.  But the vaccine has caused a tremendous drop in Israel and the UK (though with the UK it's hard to divorce from lockdown protocols).  The 2 numbers are close only in your theoretical fantasy world.  One works, the other one doesn't, in controlling waves.
> 
> It's probably because your 70% exists in a world where people like Fauci can keep their masks on when the cameras aren't rolling, part of the population doesn't say no thanks, people like Biden wear proper fitting ones without them having to be touched and pulled up by dirty fingers constantly, people without medical training like kids suddenly learn to properly wear mask, people don't constantly wash cloth mask and dispose of surgical masks after a single use, gaiters and bandanas aren't allowed, people don't get encouraged to use them to engage in more risky behavior, people use them for limited amounts of time to reduce short term exposures, people replace them if they get wet and people can stand to use them even in the home.


A 70% effective mask worn by 70% of the people gets you less than a 50% reduction in cases.

That's what Germany has.  The other 30% are AfD.

We aren't the only country with a major political party devoted to rejecting public health measures.

To handle a variant with R0=5, you need measures that combine for an 80% reduction in transmission.  Hard to do that when 30% of the country is playing for team virus.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> A 70% effective mask worn by 70% of the people gets you less than a 50% reduction in cases.
> 
> That's what Germany has.  The other 30% are AfD.
> 
> ...


A substantial portion of the transmissions are in the home.  People aren't wearing masks in the home, and even if they wanted to by the time they realize something is up it's probably too late.  It's for that simple reason masks are never going to control an outbreak, while a vaccine can.  Masks have little impact on an outbreak because human's are flawed and use flawed masks in a flawed manner.  "Stop having a Republican Party" isn't a health policy prescription.  When cases start to align along lines of latitude, and vaccines bring down the case and death count, it's pretty clear some things matter much more than others.

And as for Germany, guess the AfD has staged a coup because it's not just plateaued now but rising again.









						Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Totally missed the point.


Meh.  He made a technical point about what magnitude means in math when I was using it colloquially.  He tried to rebut a self-evident point (that vaccines have the capability of ending the current crisis, if not the actual pandemic, while masks have utterly failed in that regard despite very rigorous mandates such as in Spain) by using said technicality and then went into crazy land by making a point that masks and vaccines are roughly equivalent (which he later had to clarify and back down on).  Not exactly his, or your, finest hour....of the many stumbles, that overreach was probably one of the worst because it puts him in the same crazy train as "masks are as good as vaccines".  Sorry if the crazy train caught my attention more.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A substantial portion of the transmissions are in the home.  People aren't wearing masks in the home, and even if they wanted to by the time they realize something is up it's probably too late.  It's for that simple reason masks are never going to control an outbreak, while a vaccine can.  Masks have little impact on an outbreak because human's are flawed and use flawed masks in a flawed manner.  "Stop having a Republican Party" isn't a health policy prescription.  When cases start to align along lines of latitude, and vaccines bring down the case and death count, it's pretty clear some things matter much more than others.
> 
> And as for Germany, guess the AfD has staged a coup because it's not just plateaued now but rising again.
> 
> ...


You lost me there.

How does in-home transmission explain how the virus gets from one house to another?

And, if masks can help stop the virus from entering a new home, why would that not be useful towards ending the pandemic?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You lost me there.
> 
> How does in-home transmission explain how the virus gets from one house to another?
> 
> And, if masks can help stop the virus from entering a new home, why would that not be useful towards ending the pandemic?


Every person that gets sick in the home is another potential source of transmission to someone outside the home.  The masks aren't a barrier to that transmission.  So 1 person becomes 4 and those person's 4 possible contacts and the mask doesn't do anything to stop that.  The vaccines are because they stop that 1 to 4.

I never said masks can't be useful.  I said they aren't nearly as useful as a vaccine, and anywhere near of an impact on whether an outbreak will occur as lines of latitude/weather or even variant types, which is what you failed to note in the original statement that started this discussion.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Every person that gets sick in the home is another potential source of transmission to someone outside the home.  The masks aren't a barrier to that transmission.  So 1 person becomes 4 and those person's 4 possible contacts and the mask doesn't do anything to stop that.  The vaccines are because they stop that 1 to 4.
> 
> I never said masks can't be useful.  I said they aren't nearly as useful as a vaccine, and anywhere near of an impact on whether an outbreak will occur as lines of latitude/weather or even variant types, which is what you failed to note in the original statement that started this discussion.


I should put this in the good news section...but what the hell. 

AZ lifted all mask mandates today (schools being the main exception....others being places like airports where the feds run the roost). 

I guess we should see a spike in cases in a couple of weeks dad?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I should put this in the good news section...but what the hell.
> 
> AZ lifted all mask mandates today (schools being the main exception....others being places like airports where the feds run the roost).
> 
> I guess we should see a spike in cases in a couple of weeks dad?


Are the new rules any different from the most relaxed rules you had near your peak?

If no, then don't expect another peak.  You have already had that one.  It may slow your recovery, but it won't cause a peak.

If yes, then you need to ask whether the damage from your change is enough to offset the benefit from vaccinations.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)

Was this @dad4 asking the question in the vid. Not sure, but I think it was.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1374875375294164994


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Are the new rules any different from the most relaxed rules you had near your peak?
> 
> If no, then don't expect another peak.  You have already had that one.  It may slow your recovery, but it won't cause a peak.
> 
> If yes, then you need to ask whether the damage from your change is enough to offset the benefit from vaccinations.


Well lets see. No masks now to go into a store, into a bar, into a restaurant, into basically any place. 

During our peak we had mask mandates and good compliance. Funny how that didn't stop the peak. Funny also how our rise in cases during our peak coincided with pretty much every state (some with strict rules, others with medium type rules and others with rather lax rules). 

As I have said repeatedly. If masks as you say REDUCED the spread by 70% we would see that data. But alas we don't. It is almost like they really don't make much of a difference in the real world.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Was this @dad4 asking the question in the vid. Not sure, but I think it was.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1374875375294164994


I kind of like the last quote. 

"Kind of the point of a vaccine"


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well lets see. No masks now to go into a store, into a bar, into a restaurant, into basically any place.
> 
> During our peak we had mask mandates and good compliance. Funny how that didn't stop the peak. Funny also how our rise in cases during our peak coincided with pretty much every state (some with strict rules, others with medium type rules and others with rather lax rules).
> 
> As I have said repeatedly. If masks as you say REDUCED the spread by 70% we would see that data. But alas we don't. It is almost like they really don't make much of a difference in the real world.


Masks do reduce inter-household transmission by 70%, and CDC has published reports explaining the numbers behind it.

The problem is not that we don't see the impact in the data.  CDC sees it just fine, as do most epidemiologists.

The problem is that _*you*_ do not have the stats background to be able see it.   Until last week, you still wanted to do a policy comparison between 3 different states with 3 different variants of the virus.  That is not the recommendation of a competent statistician.  

Take a few biostatistics classes, and then tell me what you think the data do and do not say.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> March weather in TX might be a little different from MI. Could be a second factor there.
> 
> Sorry.  The system is complicated.  You don't get to look at only one thing and draw a meaningful conclusion.
> 
> ...


You have an amazing immune system that has no choice but to take care of a winpy host.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Several magnitudes?
> 
> Nice rhetoric, but do you have any evidence that one thing is 10^4 times as good as another?
> 
> ...


Where have masks caused a 70% reduction in transmission?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Where have masks caused a 70% reduction in transmission?


79% on USS Roosevelt.  70%, in the CDC nationwide county by county regression.

Only applies in transmission between homes, as Grace noted.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> 79% on USS Roosevelt.  70%, in the CDC nationwide county by county regression.
> 
> Only applies in transmission between homes, as Grace noted.


How did they differentiate mask-wearing from distancing? I'd appreciate any links.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The problem is that _*you*_ do not have the stats background to be able see it. Until last week, you still wanted to do a policy comparison between 3 different states with 3 different variants of the virus. That is not the recommendation of a competent statistician.


I don't have a problem with stats. I am looking at 3 states with 90 million people total, and it is hard to see much daylight between the 3.

You were certain based on stats that those states would blow up (TX/FL). And yet a yr in they are now the same.

And you made a pronouncement that TX was in trouble (based on you understanding of stats) of eliminating masks, opening biz.

I made the statement that we won't see an increase in cases and as a matter of fact they would still be at about the same spot as CA.

Your excuse now is that CA has a variant that is different. Either way the point is you won't see cases in TX go up. Your stats say yes. My bet is based on watching the data is that in less than 2 weeks ( which puts us at a month) we won't see any rise.

What then pray tell will be your new goalpost?


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> 79% on USS Roosevelt.  70%, in the CDC nationwide county by county regression.
> 
> Only applies in transmission between homes, as Grace noted.


I suspect your upcoming excuse about TX coming up shortly is that the reason of no rise but a continuing decline is the vaccine.

And if that is the case, that means the Gov understood the vaccine could and should have that result which is why they opened up.

You on the other hand seem to be perpetually worried about variants now and use that as a reason to continue with failed policy


----------



## Glitterhater (Mar 25, 2021)

So are we still arguing about masks in here?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> How did they differentiate mask-wearing from distancing? I'd appreciate any links.


Not sure you can.  It may be that masks work in part because they are a visible signal to stay distant.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> So are we still arguing about masks in here?


We never get anywhere.  12 months in and team virus is still arguing against mask mandates.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not sure you can.  It may be that masks work in part because they are a visible signal to stay distant.


How far away does one need to stay for the vaccine to “work”?


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not sure you can.  It may be that masks work in part because they are a visible signal to stay distant.


Aren't they a visible sign it is OK to hang out? I think you have it backwards in terms of what many think regarding masks and socializing.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> How did they differentiate mask-wearing from distancing? I'd appreciate any links.


The Roosevelt study is misleading because it found that those wearing masks were generally more cautious (for example, avoiding common areas).  I agree that being more cautious is a good way to reduce virus transmission. 

The county by county analysis has also come under heavy criticism, is a bit of CDC propaganda put out to justify their priors, but the explanation as to why is somewhat beyond my skills.  One key criticism, though, is that it examined state wide mandates, but examined county data, even though counties varied by policies and severity of mask mandates (e.g. Los Angeles v. Bakersfield....Miami v. Tallahassee).  The rebuttal to the county by county analysis is that some people have done side by side comparisons of counties with mask mandates and neighboring ones without....it controls for things like variants and state mandates as a result....there hasn't been much difference between such neighboring counties, which tend to rise and fall at roughly the same time.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> How far away does one need to stay for the vaccine to “work”?


The question is not as silly as you think.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The question is not as silly as you think.


Guess I’ll find out


----------



## dad4 (Mar 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Aren't they a visible sign it is OK to hang out? I think you have it backwards in terms of what many think regarding masks and socializing.


Kind of the opposite in my experience.

The people with chin straps want to get close.  The people with masks on 24/7 want you to stay away.


----------



## espola (Mar 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Meh.  He made a technical point about what magnitude means in math when I was using it colloquially.  He tried to rebut a self-evident point (that vaccines have the capability of ending the current crisis, if not the actual pandemic, while masks have utterly failed in that regard despite very rigorous mandates such as in Spain) by using said technicality and then went into crazy land by making a point that masks and vaccines are roughly equivalent (which he later had to clarify and back down on).  Not exactly his, or your, finest hour....of the many stumbles, that overreach was probably one of the worst because it puts him in the same crazy train as "masks are as good as vaccines".  Sorry if the crazy train caught my attention more.


Orders of magnitude more?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Masks do reduce inter-household transmission by 70%, and CDC has published reports explaining the numbers behind it.


Liar. No.They haven't.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The problem is not that we don't see the impact in the data.  CDC sees it just fine, as do most epidemiologists.


Just fine huh?  Good grief.  That's pretty weak son.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The problem is that _*you*_ do not have the stats background to be able see it.   Until last week, you still wanted to do a policy comparison between 3 different states with 3 different variants of the virus.  That is not the recommendation of a competent statistician.


You don't say.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Where have masks caused a 70% reduction in transmission?


Where there is a 100% increase in hysteria.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We never get anywhere.  12 months in and team virus is still arguing against mask mandates.


You don't have the background in stats, public policy, and epidemiology to get anywhere beyond the last 12 months.  You've totally ignored the 12,000 plus global pandemics we've had since 1978.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The Roosevelt study is misleading because it found that those wearing masks were generally more cautious (for example, avoiding common areas).  I agree that being more cautious is a good way to reduce virus transmission.


What was the Roosevelt's recovery rate?  Is virus transmission bad?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> How far away does one need to stay for the vaccine to “work”?


Assuming that they meet the definition of a vaccine you mean?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The question is not as silly as you think.


You mean because the mRNA is telling the cell to produce the spike protein in the hopes that it will produce an innate response and anti-bodies for Corona that already has several variants?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You lost me there.
> 
> How does in-home transmission explain how the virus gets from one house to another?
> 
> And, if masks can help stop the virus from entering a new home, why would that not be useful towards ending the pandemic?


Pandemics and virus's aren't going anywhere no matter what we do.  It's a good thing your immune system is designed to deal with virus's.  Your immune system is tired of you thinking that a single virus is going to take down the entire human race in the absence of some type of government intervention.  Your DNA is trying to think of a way to prove that it can take care of you just like has against SARs-1 and all the other virus that you've dealt with during the last 12,00 pandemics since 1978.  The problem is that you don't have a background in anything but stats.


----------



## N00B (Mar 26, 2021)

I know this is the ‘Bad News’ thread... but anyone hear a lot about ‘Super Spreader’ events recently?  

Seriously, aside from reporting on possible or potential spread, this aspect of the COVID threat seems to have been minimized.

I don’t know if it is masks, social distancing, indoor vs outdoor activities, etc., but some universally adopted practices do seem to be making an impact on these types of events.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 26, 2021)

N00B said:


> I know this is the ‘Bad News’ thread... but anyone hear a lot about ‘Super Spreader’ events recently?
> 
> Seriously, aside from reporting on possible or potential spread, this aspect of the COVID threat seems to have been minimized.
> 
> I don’t know if it is masks, social distancing, indoor vs outdoor activities, etc., but some universally adopted practices do seem to be making an impact on these types of events.


Excellent point!  My feeling is that we’ve vaccinated a very large pet of the most vulnerable (65+).


----------



## crush (Mar 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Liar. No.They haven't.


All he does is lie and the worse kinds of lies because he uses numbers to lie and when his numbers look like shit, he moves the goal post


----------



## crush (Mar 26, 2021)

Creepy Doc Billy Says He Knows When the World’s Coronavirus Crisis Will Be Over – Not This Year.  

The Microsoft founder said the health crisis has been an *“incredible tragedy,”* but one *bright spot *has been the* arrival of vaccines*. “By the *end of 2022 *we should be basically completely *back to normal*,” Gates said in an interview 

A picture is worth something and this little boy knows WTF is going on.  "Get that crap away from me." Look at his eyes.  This is insane!!!


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 26, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Excellent point!  My feeling is that we’ve vaccinated a very large pet of the most vulnerable (65+).


80% or so of all deaths are in the 65 and older group. So yes when they are vaccinated this thing is effectively over.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

crush said:


> All he does is lie and the worse kinds of lies because he uses numbers to lie and when his numbers look like shit, he moves the goal post


He's having the goal post stump grinded down as I type this.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

crush said:


> Creepy Doc Billy Says He Knows When the World’s Coronavirus Crisis Will Be Over – Not This Year.
> 
> The Microsoft founder said the health crisis has been an *“incredible tragedy,”* but one *bright spot *has been the* arrival of vaccines*. “By the *end of 2022 *we should be basically completely *back to normal*,” Gates said in an interview
> 
> ...


Speaking of Bozo's.


----------



## crush (Mar 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Speaking of Bozo's.


Bozo with poison needles is not good Brudda man, not good at all.  TGIF!!!  Make it a great day  To all my socal pals, the weather beginning tomorrow will be amazing and perfect the next 7 days, so go get the sun and all the Vitamin D you can fill up on. DNA Light Rays ((DLR)) is looking to share the love and the light. Trust me. Also, stop eating meat for 7 days. Fruits, Veggies and some Nuts. Water and more water. Trust me. Also, journal down all your misdeeds ((sins)) and confess to you know who. If their is a special one you betrayed or did naughty ((lie)), confess and get healed. Put all relationships on da line. Expose and purge all the toxic shit you took on over all the years and I swear you will lose weight, feel better and probably keep going on *The* *Crush Crash Course Confession Class.  *True joy & happiness can only come from forgiveness and forgiving others


----------



## dad4 (Mar 26, 2021)

We could have a real discussion if both sides were willing to accept the results of the research that has been done so far.

Masks work.  Vaccines work.  Bars and restaurants spread covid.  Multi family households spread covid.  Outdoor activities are far safer than indoor.  Shool shutdowns are very bad for learning.  Some variants are partially vaccine resistant, but we don't know how much.  Unemployment is far higher in CA, lower in FL and NZ.  The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.

Those are the starting points for a decent discussion.  And not one of them is the least bit controversial among the people who study these things.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 26, 2021)




----------



## texanincali (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We could have a real discussion if both sides were willing to accept the results of the research that has been done so far.
> 
> Masks work.  Vaccines work.  Bars and restaurants spread covid.  Multi family households spread covid.  Outdoor activities are far safer than indoor.  Shool shutdowns are very bad for learning.  Some variants are partially vaccine resistant, but we don't know how much.  Unemployment is far higher in CA, lower in FL and NZ.  The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.
> 
> Those are the starting points for a decent discussion.  And not one of them is the least bit controversial among the people who study these things.


This is the issue though.  Both sides can find research that seems to confirm their points of view.  There are mask research findings that cite what you quote in here and there are others that say masks do relatively nothing.  Vaccines seem to be good, yet there are 40% of people that won't be taking them until further information and data is available.  About the only thing people will agree on is social distancing and outdoor gatherings are better than close contact and indoor gatherings.  

What I am interested in seeing is if masks become mandated, or if those who support masks so diligently are willing to keep wearing them when Covid is basically gone (if that ever occurs).  Masks have been the calling card of those who will use them as THE reason that flu has virtually been wiped out.  If that is truly the case, and we have the ability to save tens of thousands of lives each year, will people continue to wear masks?  It also begs the question of our doctors as to why masks haven't been used in the past to prevent flu transmission.  Either they have asleep at the wheel for decades and could have prevented the millions of flu deaths, or masks really aren't the reason flu is gone.  Will be interesting to see this play out.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Excellent point!  My feeling is that we’ve vaccinated a very large pet of the most vulnerable (65+).


Agreed. My primary concern is that the transmission rate is very different between different population groups and where the rate is highest, the lowest proportion of people are getting vaccinated.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We could have a real discussion if both sides were willing to accept the results of the research that has been done so far.
> 
> Masks work.  Vaccines work.  Bars and restaurants spread covid.  Multi family households spread covid.  Outdoor activities are far safer than indoor.  Shool shutdowns are very bad for learning.  Some variants are partially vaccine resistant, but we don't know how much.  Unemployment is far higher in CA, lower in FL and NZ.  The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.
> 
> Those are the starting points for a decent discussion.  And not one of them is the least bit controversial among the people who study these things.


You say "masks", but you actually include social distancing and all the associated problems it causes economically and emotionally. Then you compare it to a vaccine. I can't take your argument seriously. As I have stated many times, I wear a mask when I am going to be around people, but it's a virus. People wear low-value masks and don't always wear them - including our leaders. If that's not part of the equation, you aren't living in the real world. You don't have to wear a vaccine properly and socially distance for a vaccine to work. Enjoy using math to mislead people.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

texanincali said:


> Either they have asleep at the wheel for decades and could have prevented the millions of flu deaths, or masks really aren't the reason flu is gone.  Will be interesting to see this play out.


Again, all the behaviors that have changed in our country and "masks" get all the credit. Cult @dad4 adds another follower.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 26, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> You say "masks", but you actually include social distancing and all the associated problems it causes economically and emotionally. Then you compare it to a vaccine. I can't take your argument seriously. As I have stated many times, I wear a mask when I am going to be around people, but it's a virus. People wear low-value masks and don't always wear them - including our leaders. If that's not part of the equation, you aren't living in the real world. You don't have to wear a vaccine properly and socially distance for a vaccine to work. Enjoy using math to mislead people.


You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.

The 70% estimate is from the real world.  It is 70%, as used in the real world.

Errors in fit, behavior adaptations, and so on are real concerns, but they are already baked into the 70% estimate.

Grace's point about in home transmission makes a bigger difference.   The vaccine gets its full power in that setting, but masks and distance get nothing.  

In some sense, it means any vaccine reduction should get counted twice.  In a chain of 2 transmissions, one at home and one outside, the vaccine reduces both.  So a 70% effective vaccine reduces the chain to 9% of what it would have been.  (.3*.3).   

Similarly, a behavior change reduction should get counted once.   A 70% effective behavior change reduces the chain to 30% what it would have been.(.3*1)

In effect, a 70% effective mask is similar to a 45% effective vaccine.  Not as good as J&J, but not zero, either.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 26, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Again, all the behaviors that have changed in our country and "masks" get all the credit. Cult @dad4 adds another follower.


Cultist Dad4 gives distance and closures some of the credit for the mild flu season.   I don't think we would want to repeat those, even to get rid of the flu.

-Buzz


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

Let's begin with some news out of forbidden Sweden.

According to Reuters, "Sweden, which has shunned the strict lockdowns that have choked much of the global economy, emerged from 2020 with a smaller increase in its overall mortality rate than most European countries, an analysis of official data sources showed."

The sources studied included 30 countries. Some 21 of them had higher excess-death percentages than Sweden.

And then we get this interesting final sentence: "Sweden’s official COVID-19 death toll is more than 13,000, although some people may have died from other causes than the disease."

Wait, what's that? Deaths attributed to COVID-19 may actually result from "other causes than the disease"? We're allowed to say that now?

Now, to Arizona, where the governor is getting raked over the coals by local politicians and some doctors for lifting statewide COVID restrictions. You know everything they're going to say, so I won't bother repeating any of it.

These same people, as the heroic Ian Miller points out, repeatedly demanded interventions, never got them, the curve fell dramatically without them, and nobody ever followed up or apologized or wondered how that could have happened:










(Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)

Also courtesy of Ian, Rhode Island won all kinds of praise for its draconian policies, but then no second thoughts or nuance or any kind when cases rose 2825% in four months:










(Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)

And finally:

Not too long ago I wrote to you about the heroic Kathryn Huwig in Ohio, whose COVID analytics have been excellent from the very start.

I wrote to tell you about her appearance at the State House. In her testimony, she held up a chart of ICU bed usage in Ohio since March 2020.

The X-axis, indicating time, was omitted on purpose.

She noted that Ohio's alleged "public health" authorities had picked out certain events and certain state policies as being significant with respect to COVID, either in terms of spread or mitigation.

All right, she said. If these things -- like Thanksgiving and Christmas (which should have led to an explosion in COVID numbers, according to the "public health" establishment), or the implementation of the mask mandate and the curfew (which should have led to lower numbers) -- really had such a significant effect that severe interventions into people's lives were justified, we should surely be able to identify them on the graph even without the help of the dates.

So go ahead, she said. Show me on the graph where the curfew went into effect, the mask mandate was instituted, when businesses opened in the spring, etc.

And of course it's impossible to find these events on the chart, because none of them appear to accomplish anything.

I decided: I have to get her on my show.

And I did it:
https://tomwoods.com/ep-1860-kathryn-huwig-smashes-covid-pseudoscience-at-state-house/

Well, I'm happy to say that Kathryn is now a member of the Tom Woods Show Elite!

It's the place where your dreams of interacting with sane people come true.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.


Are your handlers now allowing you to say what we've known for decades?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.
> 
> The 70% estimate is from the real world.  It is 70%, as used in the real world.
> 
> ...


You're babbling


----------



## dad4 (Mar 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> You're babbling


No.  I am thinking.  You are reposting half truths you found on some right wing fringe site.   

Look at your Rhode Island chart.  Is it really true that there were absolutley no policy or behavior changes from May 2020 to March 2021?  Seems pretty unlikely.   It just means you cribbed the chart from some advocate who only shows you what he wants to show.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 26, 2021)

Here’s the rub....masks/distancing/lock downs do nothing to improve immunity or health. Therefore as soon as you remove those “barriers” you are at risk.  

It’s ironic that our public health leaders have not once put out a campaign of eating healthy, exercising and basic vitamin regiments that will help minimize your Covid impact risk. 

Any idea why?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No.  I am thinking.  You are reposting half truths you found on some right wing fringe site.
> 
> Look at your Rhode Island chart.  Is it really true that there were absolutley no policy or behavior changes from May 2020 to March 2021?  Seems pretty unlikely.   It just means you cribbed the chart from some advocate who only shows you what he wants to show.


The NYT is hardly right wing.  Please continue.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.
> 
> The 70% estimate is from the real world.  It is 70%, as used in the real world.
> 
> ...


Do we have a "real-world" comparison of mask mandates vs. vaccinations? I'd say hospitalizations and deaths are the two results that will be most reliable as cases will be undercounted in the non-vaccinated population. Have they taken all the states that had both mask mandates and participated in the trial vaccine program and compared the % of hospitalizations and deaths (by age) in the non-vaccinated population and the population that was vaccinated (vaccinations after the first 2 weeks)? That is a reasonable comparison between the vaccine and mask policy.


----------



## espola (Mar 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The NYT is hardly right wing.  Please continue.


But the Mises Institute is.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The NYT is hardly right wing.  Please continue.


Who put your Rhode Island chart together and added a partial timeline in yellow?  That wasn’t the NYT.

Whoever it was, they seem to have forgotten to mention the fact that RI opened indoor dining last summer, a bit before their surge in cases.









						Reopening RI: Indoor Dining Regulations In Phase 2
					

Restaurants will be allowed to offer limited indoor dining in Rhode Island starting June 1.




					patch.com
				




So, they opened gyms and dining in June.  Within a month, that stopped the improvement in case counts.  While weather was good, open dining meant mostly flat cases.  Once weather turned bad, open dining meant a huge spike.

Your chart no longer seems to prove what you said it proves.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 26, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Do we have a "real-world" comparison of mask mandates vs. vaccinations? I'd say hospitalizations and deaths are the two results that will be most reliable as cases will be undercounted in the non-vaccinated population. Have they taken all the states that had both mask mandates and participated in the trial vaccine program and compared the % of hospitalizations and deaths (by age) in the non-vaccinated population and the population that was vaccinated (vaccinations after the first 2 weeks)? That is a reasonable comparison between the vaccine and mask policy.


You can’t split out sub populations when you are looking at herd immunity type calculations.  If the populations can mix, then the virus is flowing between group A and group B.  Even if group B has a lower transmission rate, the data are so mixed you may not see it in case rates.  ( Group B has case rates that include infections from group. A, and vice versa.)

You’d have to look at different countries with different mask/distance/vaccine rates.  For example, you could look at England (Feb)  versus New York (Mar).   Cold weather and roughly 25% vaccinated, but one had serious NPI and the other did not.  So far, that one indicates that strong NPI work better than opening indoor dining.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You can’t split out sub populations when you are looking at herd immunity type calculations.  If the populations can mix, then the virus is flowing between group A and group B.  Even if group B has a lower transmission rate, the data are so mixed you may not see it in case rates.  ( Group B has case rates that include infections from group. A, and vice versa.)
> 
> You’d have to look at different countries with different mask/distance/vaccine rates.  For example, you could look at England (Feb)  versus New York (Mar).   Cold weather and roughly 25% vaccinated, but one had serious NPI and the other did not.  So far, that one indicates that strong NPI work better than opening indoor dining.


Are you saying we can't look at CA vaccinated vs. CA not-vaccinated and compare the numbers, but we can compare numbers from England in February to NY in March?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We could have a real discussion if both sides were willing to accept the results of the research that has been done so far.
> 
> Masks work.  Vaccines work.  Bars and restaurants spread covid.  Multi family households spread covid.  Outdoor activities are far safer than indoor.  Shool shutdowns are very bad for learning.  Some variants are partially vaccine resistant, but we don't know how much.  Unemployment is far higher in CA, lower in FL and NZ.  The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.
> 
> Those are the starting points for a decent discussion.  And not one of them is the least bit controversial among the people who study these things.


The arguments over how much weight to give each factor and what “work” “spread” and “safe” mean.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Who put your Rhode Island chart together and added a partial timeline in yellow?  That wasn’t the NYT.
> 
> Whoever it was, they seem to have forgotten to mention the fact that RI opened indoor dining last summer, a bit before their surge in cases.
> 
> ...


It actually does.  The chart says so much for the efficacy of mask and social distancing to lower case counts.  I don't think you get how this works.  Or how things should work given the following from your article:

*Customers*

Party sizes will be capped at 15 people, per the updated gathering limit. Customers are encouraged to limit their party size to eight people or less, which is the limit for a single table.
Customers are asked not to socialize with people at tables surrounding them.
Party sizes will be capped at 15 people, per the updated gathering limit. Customers are encouraged to limit their party size to eight people or less, which is the limit for a single table. Parties of nine to 15 people should be seated at separate tables or outdoors.
Online or phone reservations are strongly encouraged. If this is not possible, restaurants are asked to use an outdoor reservation or host stand system.
At least one member of each party will be asked to provide their contact information for the Rhode Island Department of Health in case of an outbreak. This log must be kept for 30 days.
Customers are asked to wear a fabric face covering when entering and exiting a restaurant and when in a common areas such as a hallway or restroom.
*Employees*

The Rhode Island Department of Health encouraged businesses to stagger and group employee shifts so the same people work together every day.
Businesses are asked to keep a work log with employee contact information in case of an outbreak.
Employees should avoid coming within 6 feet of customers and other employees as much as possible.
Employees, customers and anyone else visiting a restaurant should be screened for symptoms of illness. Self-screening with posted signs at the entrance is acceptable.
Employees are asked to wear face masks whenever they cannot reasonably stay 6 feet away from others.
Businesses must train employees on cleaning procedures and other new safety protocols. One employee must be designated to implement these procedures and ensure they are being followed.
*Cleaning*

All restaurants must be thoroughly cleaned before opening.
Tables, chairs and other high-touch surfaces must be sanitized between parties.
Hand sanitizer or hand washing stations must be available to employees and customers.
Self-serve areas such as buffets and salad bars are not allowed.
Menus must be disposed of or sanitized between each use or digital, electronic or a whiteboard.
Silverware must be disposable or sanitized between uses. Reusable silverware should be individually packaged or rolled.
Self-serve drink refills are not allowed. Refills must be in a new, clean cup.
Condiments are encouraged to be served in single-use packages, or only provided upon request and sanitized between uses.


----------



## Glitterhater (Mar 26, 2021)

These threads are always the same. Bruddah and Crush being besties- thinking that anything they can't comprehend must be false or some conspiracy, Dad & Grace having a lovers quarrel, EOTL & gang calling everyone a trumpster magat, Hound doing what Hound does, (honestly not sure what that is, I still confuse him with others,) .. what did I miss? Disclaimer: I have muted a few so these are based on posting history.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 26, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Are you saying we can't look at CA vaccinated vs. CA not-vaccinated and compare the numbers, but we can compare numbers from England in February to NY in March?


Yep.  Ain't science weird?

The number of cases among CA non-vaccinated is heavily influenced by the presence of vaccinated neighbors.   All those other vaccinated people mean you are less likely to be exposed- whether you took the vaccine or not.


----------



## crush (Mar 26, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> These threads are always the same. Bruddah and Crush being besties- thinking that anything they can't comprehend must be false or some conspiracy, Dad & Grace having a lovers quarrel, EOTL & gang calling everyone a trumpster magat, Hound doing what Hound does, (honestly not sure what that is, I still confuse him with others,) .. what did I miss? Disclaimer: I have muted a few so these are based on posting history.


I think you're smart and insightful.  I do love Bruddah but he kicked me around some when i needed it back in the day.  Hound PM me one time told me to get my shit together.  Actually, I had another old pal ((I wont share avatar name)) that PM me to to see if I was alright.  I will admit I had some melt downs.  I'm sorry for that.  Dad is a liar.  Grace is amazing and i feel her pain.  EOTL represents the darkness and I love him too.  You, I dont understand but you seem like a nice person.  In fact, everyone I have met in soccer I love.  It's a love hate kind of relationship.  I feel all the parents  pain and I can also feel how hard it must have been trying to coach kids and then have to deal with some of us parents.  Were all nuts!!!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yep.  Ain't science weird?
> 
> The number of cases among CA non-vaccinated is heavily influenced by the presence of vaccinated neighbors.   All those other vaccinated people mean you are less likely to be exposed- whether you took the vaccine or not.


You know, if all this "weird science" could actually predict what will happen with any consistency, people might actually pay attention to it.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 26, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> You know, if all this "weird science" could actually predict what will happen with any consistency, people might actually pay attention to it.


Sorry.  This is biology.  If you want predictions, try physics.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> These threads are always the same. Bruddah and Crush being besties- thinking that anything they can't comprehend must be false or some conspiracy, Dad & Grace having a lovers quarrel, EOTL & gang calling everyone a trumpster magat, Hound doing what Hound does, (honestly not sure what that is, I still confuse him with others,) .. what did I miss? Disclaimer: I have muted a few so these are based on posting history.


How about a self assessment.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yep.  Ain't science weird?
> 
> The number of cases among CA non-vaccinated is heavily influenced by the presence of vaccinated neighbors.   All those other vaccinated people mean you are less likely to be exposed- whether you took the vaccine or not.


Aren't the shots already outdated by the variants?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

Now, for more virus info.

Our friend Ian Miller (@ianmSC) just released these charts about Montana, with this commentary: "It’s remarkable to me that people can look at a chart like this and think 'yes, masks are an effective intervention.' Cases went up 1446% after Montana’s mask mandate on 7/15…now it’s been 2.5 weeks since they lifted the mandate and cases are down -35.2%. I just don't get it."

















(Source: COVID Tracking Project)

Honestly: if you hadn't been propagandized into believing that masks play an important role in all this, would you seriously look at those charts and say, "Thank goodness for masks"? Nobody would. And yet everyone repeats the obligatory paeans to masks.

Here's a chart from Colorado. As one commentator put it, the people claiming that "it would have been worse without masks" are moving the goalposts. They used to cheer masks for preventing spikes like the one in the chart. Then we get a spike and instead of admitting they were wrong, they suddenly retreat to the unfalsifiable "it would have been worse" b.s.











(Source: covid19 dot colorado dot gov/data)

Now let's travel to Europe. Let's compare the Czech Republic with Sweden. Before we do so, let's compare mask usage. The Czech Republic is in red; Sweden is in blue. (Sorry for the poor quality; what matters here are the magnitudes, which you can see.)










And now, daily deaths.

The quotation in the chart below is from Eric Feigl-Ding, the nutritionist who has managed to pass himself off as an infectious disease expert and who has done nothing but spread fear and panic from the very beginning. He took an indirect swipe at the U.S. early on by claiming that the Czechs had "basically conquered COVID" after two months of mask wearing. Did he ever retract this? Need I even ask the question?











(Source: World Health Organization)

OK, that's plenty of narrative-smashing for one day.

Now for a special message:

The old man here has created a whole bunch of online courses that people enjoy.

He's figured out every aspect of it: equipment to use, how to edit your material, how to market it, how to make sales, etc.

(And also how not to commit an atrocity after you've made a video and then when playing it back find that the audio hadn't been recording.)

Online courses are an excellent way to dip your toe into earning some smackers online and diversify your sources of smackers. I think 2020 was a good object lesson in the need to do this.

I've assembled some free resources for you -- an eBook and some demonstration videos -- if you're curious (and I hope you are):


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 26, 2021)

Journalist Brett Kelman just walked into a buzzsaw.

Promoting his latest article on Twitter, he began: "As COVID-19 swept the American South over the past 12 months, our uninformed and selfish choices worsened the pandemic in every way. We paid the price in lives."

In other words, the usual line: you stupid rubes wouldn't listen to your "public health" experts, so the deaths are all your fault.

Well, Ian Miller, who compiles so many of the charts I share with you, happened to see this.

The result was a brutal, bloody beatdown.

Ian began: "Hey Brett, wondering if you can explain this to me...if behavior and rules are so important, why do all of these curves look the same?"










Ol' Brett came back with: "Short answer? Because the behavior was largely the same. My story covers 4 of these states, and in those states residents generally followed the same gathering patterns, resulting in similar infection curves."

Ian wasn't about to let him get away with that.

"You think people in South Carolina and Louisiana behaved the same way? Despite totally different rules and mandates? That’s the explanation?

"How about Kansas and Illinois and West Virginia, same behavior there too?"










Ian keeps going.

"Nevada opened the largest casinos and hotels in the world last spring while California’s been one of the most closed states in the country since March. So we know the behavior’s been different there. What happened?"










Ian won't stop.

"Southern California counties have all had different rules at different times with wildly varying levels of compliance. Didn’t matter here either. Ever thought that maybe behavior is an excuse used by politicians to explain why their policies aren’t working?"










Kelman responded:

"Have I thought about it? Yes. I would like to look more at these charts you are posting, but not as Twitter screenshots. Mind sharing your source for these images?"

Ian proceeds to do so (they're listed at the bottom of each chart), with most of the data coming from the covidtracking dot com site.

Kelman thanks him, and the exchange ends.

It is virtually certain that Kelman had never seen any of this. He had bought the "it's your fault" argument hook, line, and sinker.

The chart for Arizona, Nevada, and California is especially important, because the _LA Times_ and the government of California are trying to take the credit for the decline in cases. But Arizona and Nevada didn't have such extreme lockdowns, and their curves are about the same.

If we had actual journalists, our "public health officials" (I cannot use that phrase except inside mocking quotation marks) would be mercilessly interrogated about all this on a daily basis.

What we have instead are curious, honest people like Ian Miller who report the truths we should be reading in the news.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.
> 
> The 70% estimate is from the real world.  It is 70%, as used in the real world.
> 
> ...


Are people getting as severely ill when they get the virus after being vaccinated as they are when they get the virus when they aren't?

From NY Times

One study found that just four out of 8,121 fully vaccinated employees at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas became infected. The other found that only seven out of 14,990 workers at UC San Diego Health and the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles tested positive two or more weeks after receiving a second dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines. Both reports, published on Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, show how well the vaccines work in the real world, and during a period of intense transmission.

...

Only some of the virus-positive health workers in the California study showed symptoms, she said, and they tended to be mild, suggesting that the vaccines were protective. That echoes data from the vaccine trials indicating that breakthrough infections were mild and did not require hospitalizations. Some people had no symptoms at all, and were discovered only through testing in studies or as part of their medical care.









						Vaccinated People Can Get Covid, but It’s Most Likely Very Rare (Published 2021)
					

“Breakthrough” cases, though quite uncommon, are a sharp reminder that vaccinated people should wear masks while the virus is circulating widely.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## dad4 (Mar 26, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Are people getting as severely ill when they get the virus after being vaccinated as they are when they get the virus when they aren't?
> 
> From NY Times
> 
> ...


Did you think I was arguing against vaccines?  

Vaccines are great.  When it’s your turn, get one.  

Saw a decent summary on the question of vaccine resistant variants.   Moderna appears to be partially effective against SA, CA, and Brazil.  Lab effectiveness oniy.  There is some suspicion that, in actual people, the reduced effectiveness may still be plenty to confer immunity.









						Brief19 - Daily Review of Covid-19 Research and Policy
					

Brief19 is a daily executive summary of covid-19-related medical research, news, and public policy. It was founded and created by frontline emergency medicine physicians with expertise in medical research critique, health policy, and public policy.



					brief19.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Did you think I was arguing against vaccines?
> 
> Vaccines are great.  When it’s your turn, get one.
> 
> ...


No, but you aren't differentiating between a case from someone who is vaccinated vs. someone who is not.


----------



## crush (Mar 27, 2021)

I'm really getting concerned for some.  I have never seen so much fear and just being paranoid.  Self-isolation is making people nuts!!  This poor lady works from home, alone!!!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 27, 2021)

crush said:


> I'm really getting concerned for some.  I have never seen so much fear and just being paranoid.  Self-isolation is making people nuts!!  This poor lady works from home, alone!!!
> 
> View attachment 10479


The vindictive nature of some that has surfaced and exploded in the last 4 years concerns me. I know a lot of people that think they are happy yet are always mad, many people who claim to be religious yet are filled with hate, many who say they are the epitome of being a patriot yet prefer foreign leaders over our own duly elected and make excuses for those who would destroy democracy, and America in the process, to accomplish their own selfish needs. Those are the things that concern me.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The vindictive nature of some that has surfaced and exploded in the last 4 years concerns me. I know a lot of people that think they are happy yet are always mad, many people who claim to be religious yet are filled with hate, many who say they are the epitome of being a patriot yet prefer foreign leaders over our own duly elected and make excuses for those who would destroy democracy, and America in the process, to accomplish their own selfish needs. Those are the things that concern me.


You’ll be okay.  But your concerns are noted.  Give papa joe some time to deliver you from your mental bondage.


----------



## crush (Mar 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The vindictive nature of some that has surfaced and exploded in the last 4 years concerns me. I know a lot of people that think they are happy yet are always mad, many people who claim to be religious yet are filled with hate, many who say they are the epitome of being a patriot yet prefer foreign leaders over our own duly elected and make excuses for those who would destroy democracy, and America in the process, to accomplish their own selfish needs. Those are the things that concern me.


EVERYONE needs to put their sexual orientation mandates, political views and religious views to the side and be American first.  It's called "land of the free" for a reason.  When my old "D" pals started their shit on Facebook after t won in 2016, it was on and it was war of words and control statements like this:  "If you voted or think like t or believe in adoption, you are a maggot and need to kneel, especially if you're white.  I play in the middle Husker.  The left went ape shit and you know it.  They cheated with the fake Rhino dudes who have enriched themselves to the loot.  WHO loses Husker?  The kids.  I told you this was going to happen.  If you pick D or R, you will live in rat shit.  If you pick honor, openness, transparency, forgiveness and mercy, you will win.  Simple choice before everyone of us today and the choice is the American way, you will be blessed.  Love sees NO color.  Teach with Mercy.  Mercy triumphs over judgement!!!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 27, 2021)

crush said:


> EVERYONE needs to put their sexual orientation mandates, political views and religious views to the side and be American first.  It's called "land of the free" for a reason.  When my old "D" pals started their shit on Facebook after t won in 2016, it was on and it was war of words and control statements like this:  "If you voted or think like t or believe in adoption, you are a maggot and need to kneel, especially if you're white.  I play in the middle Husker.  The left went ape shit and you know it.  They cheated with the fake Rhino dudes who have enriched themselves to the loot.  WHO loses Husker?  The kids.  I told you this was going to happen.  If you pick D or R, you will live in rat shit.  If you pick honor, openness, transparency, forgiveness and mercy, you will win.  Simple choice before everyone of us today and the choice is the American way, you will be blessed.  Love sees NO color.  Teach with Mercy.  Mercy triumphs over judgement!!!


What’s a sexual orientation mandate? Believe in adoption? Must kneel? The “left went ape-shit” because trump was an obvious disaster starting with his American carnage speech (that was a head scratcher until he created the American carnage). You seem to be tossing some of your fears and angst into your post there.


----------



## crush (Mar 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> What’s a sexual orientation mandate? Believe in adoption? Must kneel? The “left went ape-shit” because trump was an obvious disaster starting with his American carnage speech (that was a head scratcher until he created the American carnage). You seem to be tossing some of your fears and angst into your post there.


Forget it Husker.  I was talking about FB and all the hate in 2016.  I got off long time ago.  I saw best friends never talk again.  I only care about more adoptions and less abortions.  That's it.  Each side thinks they knows best about sex.  I say, buzz off and mind your own business.  Stop it.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 27, 2021)

crush said:


> Forget it Husker.  I was talking about FB and all the hate in 2016.  I got off long time ago.  I saw best friends never talk again.  I only care about more adoptions and less abortions.  That's it.  Each side thinks they knows best about sex.  I say, buzz off and mind your own business.  Stop it.


Like my pops use to say, “just worry about yourself, stay out of other people’s business”. The people that try to tell others how they should conduct their personal lives are usually the worst kind of hypocrites.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Like my pops use to say, “just worry about yourself, stay out of other people’s business”. The people that try to tell others how they should conduct their personal lives are usually the worst kind of hypocrites.


Popspola taught you no such thing.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 29, 2021)

Oakland teachers refuse to return to school, despite getting COVID vaccine priority
					

Public school teachers in Oakland, Calif., have opted not to return to the classroom until the mandatory start date in mid-April, despite priority vaccinations and cash incentives.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 29, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Alright, 7 weeks ago we were given a 6-14 week range of Osterholm's Armageddon ("OA"). As stated last week, we have flattened out in cases and now hospitalizations are only dropping slightly. That isn't good news. However, we are nowhere near anything like OA. Deaths are still dropping like a rock, but they typically lag hospitalizations by a couple of weeks. If deaths keep dropping like this for two more weeks, I think it's pretty much done - no OA. By then we'll be at about 30% vaccinated (24.5% now). If J&J comes through in the volumes expected starting in April, we'll likely be vaccinating news folks at 1%/day. By the end of April, we'll be nearing 60% vaccinated with at least their first shot.


8 weeks into the 6-14 week range for Osterholm's Armageddon ("OA"). Cases are rising overall - driven by the northeast and upper midwest. Hospitalizations are flat with deaths still decreasing, but showing some flattening. Not great news overall, but definitely not anything close to OA yet. We have 6 more weeks to see if he knew what he was talking about and see if he should take the advice @dad4 and realize this is biology and not physics so he should stay out of the prediction business.

“*The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.*

NYTimes Vaccine tracker has changed and appears to exclude certain states now. CDC has a nice summary I found that I actually prefer for an overall perspective. Looks like we'll be at over 30% with at least one dose by the end of March. The US is averaging over 3 million shots/day over the last 5 days. J&J is getting into the mix more now as well. It's good to see over 72% of the population over 65 is vaccinated already.






						COVID Data Tracker
					

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.



					covid.cdc.gov


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 29, 2021)

So @dad4 was sure bad thins would happen when TX opened up all biz and dropped masks. 

We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far. 

The start is here. 



As of today we are here. 

Not much of a difference. 



But let us take a closer look just to be sure. Dad the stat guy was sure opening biz and no more masks would lead to a spike in cases. 

Lets see what the trend is.

Well cases continue to fall. Crazy right? @dad4 the guy that claims he understands stats whiffed again. Why? Because as usual he fails to look at real world data. If the model tells you one thing, but the real world data tells you another, it is time to re-evaluate. 

In the end a year in, based on actual DATA we can say TX handled the crisis far better vs CA. For starters kids were in school in person all year and go from there.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 29, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The US is averaging over 3 million shots/day over the last 5 days. J&J is getting into the mix more now as well. It's good to see over 72% of the population over 65 is vaccinated already.


Since that is the group of people that have accounted for close to roughly 80% of all deaths...with them getting vaccinated, the crisis is over.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So @dad4 was sure bad thins would happen when TX opened up all biz and dropped masks.
> 
> We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far.
> 
> ...


No, no, no, Hound. You need to compare the third Monday of each month in the US to the second Tuesday of the prior month in the UK and the fourth Wednesday of 2 months prior for the rest of the EU. Make sure you adjust for time differences in all places, afternoon tea in the UK, siestas in Spain and the two-hour lunches in France. Then you'll see that masks are almost as effective as vaccines.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Since that is the group of people that have accounted for close to roughly 80% of all deaths...with them getting vaccinated, the crisis is over.


Overall, it should put the rate of death down to less than 1/3 of what it was / case.

(0.8 deaths)*(0.276 not vaccinated) + (0.2 deaths) *(0.837 not vaccinated)
0.22 + 0.17 = 0.39

However, among those < 65, It's highly likely those closer to 65 are vaccinated at a significantly higher rate and, of course, those people will have a higher mortality rate.

This does assume that those getting vaccinated and those that are not are equally likely to have a negative outcome from a case. I'm not convinced that is so.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So @dad4 was sure bad thins would happen when TX opened up all biz and dropped masks.
> 
> We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far.
> 
> ...


Would you mind not putting words in my mouth?

It is so fucking rude.

If you think I said something, go find the quote, reply to it.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 29, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> No, no, no, Hound. You need to compare the third Monday of each month in the US to the second Tuesday of the prior month in the UK and the fourth Wednesday of 2 months prior for the rest of the EU. Make sure you adjust for time differences in all places, afternoon tea in the UK, siestas in Spain and the two-hour lunches in France. Then you'll see that masks are almost as effective as vaccines.


You could actually do some analysis instead of just mocking it, you know.

The original argument was comparing a known 70% effective mask against a 70% effective vaccine which did not yet exist. 

I have not seen anyone argue that a 70% effective mask is better than a 95% effective vaccine- now that we know we have one.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You could actually do some analysis instead of just mocking it, you know.
> 
> The original argument was comparing a known 70% effective mask against a 70% effective vaccine which did not yet exist.
> 
> I have not seen anyone argue that a 70% effective mask is better than a 95% effective vaccine- now that we know we have one.


In fairness, I said, "almost", but J&J is about 72% effective in the US, right? Basically the same as the claim of the mask at 70%.









						How Effective Is the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 Vaccine? Here’s What You Should Know
					

We asked UCSF infectious disease expert Monica Gandhi, MD, MPH, to unpack some of the big questions around vaccine science, such as how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine differs, how well it works against the new variants, and whether you should be worried about transmitting the virus after vaccination.




					www.ucsf.edu
				




So, if someone is telling me this is the case, that means from the time we started mask policy in CA, if we would have replaced masks with everyone being vaccinated by the J&J shot (and given two weeks), we would expect the same number of new hospitalizations and deaths. Is that the claim?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 29, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> In fairness, I said, "almost", but J&J is about 72% effective in the US, right? Basically the same as the claim of the mask at 70%.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That’s what I thought.   70% is 70%.  I was wrong.

The mask‘s 70% doesn’t apply to in home transmission.   So the mask ends up acting more like a 45% reduction.   (70% reduction outside the home, 0% reduction inside the home.   Geometric mean gives you 45% reduction.)

 To get an effective 70% with masks, you’ve have to have a solid plan to quarantine infected people outside the home.  We did not have that in CA.

That said, LA managed a variant covid better than most states managed plain covid.  So something was helping, and it happened too early to be the vaccine.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So @dad4 was sure bad thins would happen when TX opened up all biz and dropped masks.
> 
> We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far.
> 
> ...


Much of Texas, many, many businesses are going on with full Covid-19 precautions. Masks, social distancing and limiting occupancy. Texans aren’t stupid, but their politically motivated governor is acting like he is.


----------



## Glitterhater (Mar 29, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Much of Texas, many, many businesses are going on with full Covid-19 precautions. Masks, social distancing and limiting occupancy. Texans aren’t stupid, but their politically motivated governor is acting like he is.


I was going to comment something similar but stopped- only because what I had was just anectdotal from a friend living in San Antonio.
She is a realtor there and says all her clients still wear masks- and her neighborhood stores are mostly full of masked people too.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 29, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I was going to comment something similar but stopped- only because what I had was just anectdotal from a friend living in San Antonio.
> She is a realtor there and says all her clients still wear masks- and her neighborhood stores are mostly full of masked people too.


My wife is there now. I have family and friends literally all over Texas and get the same reports even from the trumpiest of them.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 29, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I was going to comment something similar but stopped- only because what I had was just anectdotal from a friend living in San Antonio.
> She is a realtor there and says all her clients still wear masks- and her neighborhood stores are mostly full of masked peo


So the bars and restaurants are not open 100%? 

Trick question they are. 

While many will still wear a mask, many will stop. Many biz have/will stop enforcing masks. Further they have no capacity restrictions. 

And what do we see? 

Declining cases.

@dad4 specifically said it was not a good idea. As we look at the numbers...the DATA tells a different story.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Would you mind not putting words in my mouth?
> 
> It is so fucking rude.
> 
> If you think I said something, go find the quote, reply to it.


You said it was a bad idea. Why would it be a bad idea? Increases the spread right? 

What does the data show? 

It shows that again your concern was misplaced. 

What part of that did I get wrong?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 29, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> My wife is there now. I have family and friends literally all over Texas and get the same reports even from the trumpiest of them.


What this tells me is that people (in majority) are actually smarter than we give them credit for and will often do the right thing without the government having to tell them to do it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 29, 2021)

dad4 said:​Abbott is being a political twit.

He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.

Why? He needs a distraction. Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.

So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.​


Desert Hound said:


> Let's save the above for future reference.
> 
> TX won't see any spike due to the mask mandate gone and everything opening up and the vaccine being out.
> 
> CA will lag again and months from now the data will show (again) that they may as well have followed FL and TX.


So above we see you think it is a bad idea. 

To be fair you don't like the idea of people doing much of anything 

That said have we seen any spike in cases due to lifting the mask mandate or allowing restaurants, bars, biz to be at 100% capacity? 

Clearly you would not have allowed it. 

But now as the data comes in what do we see?

There is no issue is there, correct?


----------



## watfly (Mar 29, 2021)

I calculate that the trailing 7 day daily average of cases has decreased 50% since Texas reopened 100% and removed the mask mandates (5,617 daily to 2,831).  That's about the extent of my math abilities.  What does the huge decrease prove?  Not sure, but it certainly casts substantial doubt on the effectiveness of lockdown mandates and/or implies that vaccines may be effective.

Now, I'm sure some epidemiologist, statistician, research analyst could go into his/her controlled lab bubble and apply all sorts of tests and regression analyses to prove something entirely different, but ultimately you can't question real world results.  It doesn't matter how great you are at math or studying viruses you can't change reality.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So the bars and restaurants are not open 100%?
> 
> Trick question they are.
> 
> ...


I think people and businesses will still do the mask thing until they announce general vaccination for people (Biden said May 1) and a few weeks after that.  People right now just trying to be courteous for those that haven't been vaccinated.  People are smart and will react to incentives outside of govt mandates.

World roundup:  Germany's numbers still rising.  Seems like the Nordics might be at peak.  Belgium's plateau has begun to rise but at a slower pace than that of its neighbors.  Spain has plateaued lending some credence to the latitude theory: that the third wave is moving downwards from higher to lower latitudes.  Canada is rising at north of 5000 cases per day still.  Japan has begun a 3rd wave.  South Korea is stubbornly plateaued at 500 cases per day and has been for awhile.  Los Angeles County is plateaued at about 350 cases per day.  Ventura County is seeing a small uptick.  
Mexico still in decline but South America (including Chile which has done so well with vaccines) still all mostly rising. South Africa despite supposedly the worst of the variants still flat as they head into mid fall.  .


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I think people and businesses will still do the mask thing until they announce general vaccination for people (Biden said May 1) and a few weeks after that.  People right now just trying to be courteous for those that haven't been vaccinated.  People are smart and will react to incentives outside of govt mandates.
> 
> World roundup:  Germany's numbers still rising.  Seems like the Nordics might be at peak.  Belgium's plateau has begun to rise but at a slower pace than that of its neighbors.  Spain has plateaued lending some credence to the latitude theory: that the third wave is moving downwards from higher to lower latitudes.  Canada is rising at north of 5000 cases per day still.  Japan has begun a 3rd wave.  South Korea is stubbornly plateaued at 500 cases per day and has been for awhile.  Los Angeles County is plateaued at about 350 cases per day.  Ventura County is seeing a small uptick.
> Mexico still in decline but South America (including Chile which has done so well with vaccines) still all mostly rising. South Africa despite supposedly the worst of the variants still flat as they head into mid fall.  .


In the US Michigan, NY and New Jersey seem to be doing the worst.  Michigan might be the model for what the 3rd wave looks like: rising cases, rise in hospitalizations, slight rise in ICU levels, deaths have had a very small uptick.  Michigan has vaccinated 74% of seniors with at least 1 shot.  Question then becomes what do people have tolerance for.









						Michigan COVID: 1,247,023 Cases and 23,309 Deaths - Worldometer
					

Michigan COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## dad4 (Mar 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You said it was a bad idea. Why would it be a bad idea? Increases the spread right?
> 
> What does the data show?
> 
> ...


There is a difference between “a bad idea” and “will result in March cases being above February cases”.

Slowing the rate of case decline also counts as a bad outcome.  

What does the data show?  The data shows that masks reduce the spread of disease, and that restaurants increase the spread of disease.  Studied, published, and peer reviewed.

This does not rely on some weak n=2 comparison between the Texas daily case rate per 100K and the California daily case rate per 100K. 

If you really want the weak n=3 comparison:  comparison happens to show the CA cases at about half the TX cases and a third the level of FL cases.   So, TX and FL are getting worse outcomes, but the real evidence is not those three numbers.  Their rate of decline has been slowed.  And, by now, stalled.


Desert Hound said:


> dad4 said:​Abbott is being a political twit.​​He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.​​Why? He needs a distraction. Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.​​So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.​
> So above we see you think it is a bad idea.
> 
> To be fair you don't like the idea of people doing much of anything
> ...


Abbott _was_ being a political twit.  He was trying to distract people from the broken water pipes that resulted when the weakly regulated natural gas pipelines froze.  And, to the extent that Texans are wearing their masks less, they are suffering higher rates of covid infection than they would otherwise have seen.

Where, in any of that, does it say that the result will be a spike?  

As far as I can tell, the result is a stable level of new covid infections.   This is a worse result than the exponential decline we saw back in Jan/Feb.  This, despite higher vaccination rates and worse weather.  We should be seeing a faster exponential decline.  Instead we are seeing a plateau.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 29, 2021)

Sound like any people we know?








						America's dirty little secret: A lot of us don't want to go back to normal.
					

If you feel that way, you're totally not alone.




					www.upworthy.com


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> As far as I can tell, the result is a stable level of new covid infections.   This is a worse result than the exponential decline we saw back in Jan/Feb.  This, despite higher vaccination rates and worse weather.  We should be seeing a faster exponential decline.  Instead we are seeing a plateau.


FYI, this is also what we are seeing in Chile despite a great vaccinate rate, worsening weather, and a new round of lockdowns.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Sound like any people we know?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Further....









						Why some people don’t want the pandemic to end
					

After a year spent at home, some people aren't ready for the pandemic to end.




					www.today.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Since that is the group of people that have accounted for close to roughly 80% of all deaths...with them getting vaccinated, the crisis is over.


all restrictions should have been removed by last May 2020.  We already had all the data we needed.  But no, the self appointed experts lined up behind Fauci the Fraud like the sheep that they are.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 29, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Much of Texas, many, many businesses are going on with full Covid-19 precautions. Masks, social distancing and limiting occupancy. Texans aren’t stupid, but their politically motivated governor is acting like he is.


So much for not telling others how to live their lives.  Isn't that your battle cry?  You people crack me up.


----------



## watfly (Mar 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What does the data show?


Lab data or real world results?  Real world results clearly shows that there is zero correlation, let alone causation, between mandates, or lack of thereof, and Covid infections.  You don't need a math or epidemiology degree to understand that concept (although it apparently helps if you don't have that degree)

Texas daily infections have decreased 50% since all restrictions were removed.  However, I'm not claiming that removing restrictions works in reducing the virus, and I'm not cherry picking Texas to prove my point because that's intellectually dishonest.  There simply is just no correlation either way in regards to restrictions.  That's why its so painfully obvious that you can't approach the problem with Covid myopathy and have to consider the overall costs and benefits.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 29, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> all restrictions should have been removed by last May 2020.  We already had all the data we needed.  But no, the self appointed experts lined up behind Fauci the Fraud like the sheep that they are.


Had we removed all restrictions in May, 2020, how many additional deaths would have resulted?

Or is that not your problem?  (Hope you don't look like your avatar.  That avatar is in a high risk group. )


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Had we removed all restrictions in May, 2020, how many additional deaths would have resulted?
> 
> Or is that not your problem?  (Hope you don't look like your avatar.  That avatar is in a high risk group. )


Not even Sweden removed ALL restrictions.  It also doesn't prohibit us from using restrictions smartly (when they are needed to reduce case loads so the hospital systems don't collapse).  Again, the assumption that an average unmarried, living alone 20 year old is going to go a year plus without hooking up is just an absurd ask on it's face of it.

But at least now you are looking at the margin benefits.  The question isn't could we have stopped 1/2 million deaths....short of Australian style lockdowns (which would have smashed both D and R sacred cows, and the US Constitution), we couldn't.  The question is what portion of those deaths are being averted by a particular policy.  You then have to compare it to the deaths and other costs created by the applicable NPI.

With masks, you seem to think no cost (or very little cost) for a huge benefit.  For indoor dining, you don't seem to put much weight on the impact on business owners, but also see a huge benefit.  Where people are challenging you on is what weight you give both the costs and the benefits in light of the real world results which have taken place.


----------



## watfly (Mar 29, 2021)

Here we go again.









						CDC director warns of 'impending doom' as Covid-19 cases spike in most states
					

Much of America's recent progress against Covid-19 has been erased as new infections jump nationwide.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Glitterhater (Mar 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So the bars and restaurants are not open 100%?
> 
> Trick question they are.
> 
> ...


I have no clue about bars/restaurants there, (but it sounds like you do,) we were just talking about the day to day. She is beyond the bar hopping days, (ah, youth!) and for restaurants she does take out or sits outside. Again, just one take from one individual. Wearing a mask doesn't bother me personally, (or her,) so until I'm vaccinated i'll mask up if I'm indoors and it seems stuffy.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 29, 2021)

watfly said:


> Here we go again.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It’s ALWAYS coming for us....


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 29, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> have no clue about bars/restaurants there, (but it sounds like you do,


Well remember over the past yr @dad4  has always blamed the slightest opening of bars/restaurants as the reason we see spikes.

So logically I wonder why he is silent now.

Further just a few days ago he blamed a state opening up their bars with a rise and when I asked him why other states who have done the same but seen no rise he is silent on.

If as he claims certain things are obvious, why can't he point to successes?

He was unhappy TX opened up, implying that would lead to rising cases. And yet we see the opposite. At some point shouldn't his and others theories match up with real world data?

If you theories don't match up with actual data, you need to re evaluate. @dad4 has failed to do so.. and rather consistently.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well remember over the past yr @dad4  has always blamed the slightest opening of bars/restaurants as the reason we see spikes.
> 
> So logically I wonder why he is silent now.
> 
> ...


CDC ran the numbers.  The data matches up extremely well: p<0.01, highly significant.

It remains a stupid idea to take off your mask and sit in a room full of other people eating and talking.  Go figure.  

Don’t blame me if you don’t like the results.  Take it up with the CDC. 

And, if you think you have some really clever data analysis argument that proves CDC wrong, submit it to an epidemiology journal and tell us when you get published.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 29, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> What this tells me is that people (in majority) are actually smarter than we give them credit for and will often do the right thing without the government having to tell them to do it.


They are following the science and the government directives. Who do you think told them about social distancing, masks and other precautions in the first place? They didn’t build that by themselves.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 29, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> It’s ALWAYS coming for us....


You mean like when they told us there would be a huge winter surge with hundreds of thousands of deaths?

Oh, wait.  That one happened.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Had we removed all restrictions in May, 2020, how many additional deaths would have resulted?


*Doesn't matter.  Deaths aren't driving the cowardly hysteria and fraud behind public policy.  And they were never going to drive public policy.  It had to be cases using the murderously inadequate PCR test.       *


_Nature has been doing gain-of-function virome since its origin. And so we_


_shouldn't be afraid of gain-of-function. No, that's what viruses are. They are all


there to increase the adaptability and biodiversity on the planet and we happen


to be able to be adapted by that. And so what I'm describing here is that we


have 12,800 new genetic updates since 1976, in the last 40 years, and some of


those we've taken up and others we've rejected from the human DNA.


And so when we say yes, there was a pandemic, then we can ask the clinical


things around what pattern did it occur? Did we have excess death this year or


not? *And the short answer to that is if you look over a seven-year trend the year


before we had this narrative of a pandemic, we had the lowest respiratory


mortality than we had in seven years. And so there was a pent up population


that didn't die last year. That's going to die of respiratory causes the following


year. The CDC, NIH, WHO knew that data. We didn't because they publish their


data two years behind typically. And so we didn't see that until retrospective


now, but we know the powers that be, that are watching these numbers must


have known that we had a low respiratory death rate that year.


And so we could have predicted that we would have an increased respiratory


mortality in 2019, 2020 in the northern hemisphere. And then later in 2020 and


into 2020 in the southern hemisphere, we would have this increased respiratory


mortality. And so it's interesting that, that's all unfolding now and we're blaming


coronavirus when, in fact, we could have pegged it on any respiratory virus


cause it was going to happen. We were going to have a catch-up year. --Zach Bush M.D.*_


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It remains a stupid idea to take off your mask and sit in a room full of other people eating and talking.  Go figure.


The reason mask manufacturers have a disclaimer, about mitigating contraction of infectious diseases, on mask packaging is that OSHA rules state that they must.  OSHA has not rated mask to stop virus's.  Mask mandates are a willful OSHA violation punishable by fine, jail, and job termination if the mandate caused injury or illnesses.  Go figure.  The government disobeying their own rules... AGAIN.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You mean like when they told us there would be a huge winter surge with hundreds of thousands of deaths?
> 
> Oh, wait.  That one happened.


Almost like a virus doesn’t care.....like water, it will find the cracks and make its way in.


----------



## happy9 (Mar 29, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> They are following the science and the government directives. Who do you think told them about social distancing, masks and other precautions in the first place? They didn’t build that by themselves.


Do you think they would have followed the science and recommendations without the Nanny state telling them what to do?  Most people I know, even those who dislike masking and the politics of government fear porn, understand the science and were wearing masks even before mask mandates.

Many act as if the crazy Karens and Franks represent society as a whole.  That's like saying Antifa represents every progressive liberal in the pacific NW.  
 Since  the government of AZ removed the mask mandates, most businesses haven't.  Most people still wear them.  How long will that last?  I don't know but doesn't seem like removing the mask mandate has made everyone go commando - sans masks.  Fear porn is everywhere - it's an effective control mechanism.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 29, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Almost like a virus doesn’t care.....like water, it will find the cracks and make its way in.


If the pool repair guy tries that line, fire him and hire someone competent.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 29, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> What this tells me is that people (in majority) are actually smarter than we give them credit for and will often do the right thing without the government having to tell them to do it.


This is what I don't understand. I suppose there is a group of people that can't figure it out for themselves.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If the pool repair guy tries that line, fire him and hire someone competent.


Like someone who thinks numbers will tell us how to stop a virus?  How has that worked for Influenza A, B or any other once novel virus (ie H1N1)?


----------



## crush (Mar 30, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Like someone who thinks numbers will tell us how to stop a virus?  How has that worked for Influenza A, B or any other once novel virus (ie H1N1)?


*Have the so-called Dad of 4 read this sad end to a life. *

*Huntington Beach family blames coronavirus pandemic after son, 19, killed himself*


----------



## crush (Mar 30, 2021)




----------



## crush (Mar 30, 2021)

Did I miss the third wave?  More and more waves are on their way.


----------



## crush (Mar 30, 2021)

Big Wednesday is tomorrow fellas.  Watch out for the big one tomorrow.


----------



## crush (Mar 30, 2021)

I think we agree the the war in Nam was BS, right?  To all the brave men & woman WHO fought in that shit, I love you.  My older brother was a gunner at 17 years young.  50% death rate.  Why?  Watch this video.  I actually see him in the video.  Insane.  BTW, he was saved years ago after dealing with all his PTSD.  Liars will pay for their crimes so they can make a buck!!!


----------



## dad4 (Mar 30, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Like someone who thinks numbers will tell us how to stop a virus?  How has that worked for Influenza A, B or any other once novel virus (ie H1N1)?


Well, yes.  The people who put together each year’s flu vaccine use numbers to predict what should go in it, whether it works, and whether it is safe.

If you take any medicine, there are a team of statisticians behind the medicine you take. 

If you think about it, you want it that way.  You can go to a holistic shaman who gives you healing crystals and ground up peach pits for your cancer.  It just tends not to work out so well.


----------



## watfly (Mar 30, 2021)

Mildly funny anecdote....on NBC this morning they had their Covid expert, Dr. Jha (Mr. Worst Case Scenario), on offering his opinion that only we can prevent the spread of coronavirus.  Later on they asked him why Texas, Arkansas and Florida was decreasing in cases if they opened everything up while states that Michigan, that still had mandates, was increasing in cases.  He said it was because of the weather!  You can't make this shit up.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Well, yes.  The people who put together each year’s flu vaccine use numbers to predict what should go in it, whether it works, and whether it is safe.
> 
> If you take any medicine, there are a team of statisticians behind the medicine you take.
> 
> If you think about it, you want it that way.  You can go to a holistic shaman who gives you healing crystals and ground up peach pits for your cancer.  It just tends not to work out so well.


The flu vaccine doesn't exactly have the best track record of getting it right.

We've had this argument before.  The math is only as good as the inputs and that can be more of an art than a science.  Otherwise, in economics we wouldn't get crashes like we did in 2008 (which as I've pointed out before was called by a few partially in the know outsiders while the insiders were saying there was no problem).  It's why generally, while not quite holistic shamans, when making these projections (whether in business, insurance, or risk management), they put the dumb but savvy Jeremy Irons guy in charge.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> Mildly funny anecdote....on NBC this morning they had their Covid expert, Dr. Jha (Mr. Worst Case Scenario), on offering his opinion that only we can prevent the spread of coronavirus.  Later on they asked him why Texas, Arkansas and Florida was decreasing in cases if they opened everything up while states that Michigan, that still had mandates, was increasing in cases.  He said it was because of the weather!  You can't make this shit up.


You sure Dr. Jha isn't Dad4?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The flu vaccine doesn't exactly have the best track record of getting it right.
> 
> We've had this argument before.  The math is only as good as the inputs and that can be more of an art than a science.  Otherwise, in economics we wouldn't get crashes like we did in 2008 (which as I've pointed out before was called by a few partially in the know outsiders while the insiders were saying there was no problem).  It's why generally, while not quite holistic shamans, when making these projections (whether in business, insurance, or risk management), they put the dumb but savvy Jeremy Irons guy in charge.


Fauci's job is dependent on how much he doesn't know.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

​
The Orwellian proposals keep piling up, and Ron DeSantis continues to be a hero.

When Joe Biden hinted weeks ago at the possibility of further lockdowns, DeSantis spoke to the press and said that that would absolutely not be happening in Florida.

When it sounded as if Biden might restrict travel to Florida, DeSantis pledged to resist.

Oh, and by the way: the anti-Florida ghouls are reduced to claiming that DeSantis must be suppressing Florida's true numbers.

Ha, yeah, that's plausible! So this theory is that the hospitals in Florida are actually bursting at the seams with COVID patients, but we can't know that because the official numbers aren't reliable?

I see. So every single hospital is in on the grand conspiracy, too? Not even one bit of anecdotal evidence of hospital overflow has managed to escape a single hospital?

It's almost sad what the Doomers are reduced to.

*In a way it's encouraging, though: these people cannot explain Florida's numbers without dreaming up wild conspiracies. That means they're implicitly admitting that Florida's numbers are great. Otherwise they wouldn't need to be explained away.

 Well, now DeSantis is resisting vaccine passports -- the Orwellian idea proposed by whoever is running Joe Biden -- as well.*

“It’s completely unacceptable," he said. "You want to go to a movie theater, should you have to show that? No. You want to go to a game, [or] a theme park? No. So we’re not supportive of that.”

He is pledging to take executive action, as early as today.

As Jeff Deist put it, "No private business or industry would require vaccine passports without state sanction and a strong assist from lapdog media to overcome the terrible PR optics. It's a sick and crazy idea."

Meanwhile, check out media coverage of Florida. The _New York Times _just ran an article about rising "cases" in one of the four states in this chart. Which one do you suppose it was?

(Dark blue is New York, light blue is New Jersey, green is Michigan, and pink is Florida.)


​






​
(Source: _Financial Times_ analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins CSSE.)

Yes, they looked at those lines and decided to write an article about Florida's "rising cases."

Meanwhile, back on this planet, here's a comparison they won't make (but thanks to @yinonw on Twitter for making it):


​




--Tom Woods


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

Meanwhile, Twitter just tagged a Tweet by infectious disease epidemiologist Martin Kulldorff of Harvard Medical School with this notice: "This Tweet is misleading. Learn why health officials recommend a vaccine for most people." You can't like or retweet it now.

Here's the crazy thing Professor Kulldorff wrote that generated that response:

*"Thinking that everyone must be vaccinated is as scientifically flawed as thinking that nobody should. COVID vaccines are important for older high-risk people, and their care-takers. Those with prior natural infection do not need it. Nor children."*


----------



## dad4 (Mar 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The flu vaccine doesn't exactly have the best track record of getting it right.
> 
> We've had this argument before.  The math is only as good as the inputs and that can be more of an art than a science.  Otherwise, in economics we wouldn't get crashes like we did in 2008 (which as I've pointed out before was called by a few partially in the know outsiders while the insiders were saying there was no problem).  It's why generally, while not quite holistic shamans, when making these projections (whether in business, insurance, or risk management), they put the dumb but savvy Jeremy Irons guy in charge.


You standard for flu forecasting is absurdly high: look at a dozen or so variants in circulation, guess which 3 will be most common, and be right on all three.  And you have to do it all several months in advance,

If you want to know how well they do, compare the average flu year to a bad flu year.  They’re getting it right more than half the time.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 30, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Do you think they would have followed the science and recommendations without the Nanny state telling them what to do?  Most people I know, even those who dislike masking and the politics of government fear porn, understand the science and were wearing masks even before mask mandates.
> 
> Many act as if the crazy Karens and Franks represent society as a whole.  That's like saying Antifa represents every progressive liberal in the pacific NW.
> Since  the government of AZ removed the mask mandates, most businesses haven't.  Most people still wear them.  How long will that last?  I don't know but doesn't seem like removing the mask mandate has made everyone go commando - sans masks.  Fear porn is everywhere - it's an effective control mechanism.


The CDC IS an agency of the government, at least it is once again on paper and in a United effort. Millions followed the ever changing in direction bouncing ball that was the previous admin. Now we have a coordinated, honest effort.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You standard for flu forecasting is absurdly high: look at a dozen or so variants in circulation, guess which 3 will be most common, and be right on all three.  And you have to do it all several months in advance,
> 
> If you want to know how well they do, compare the average flu year to a bad flu year.  They’re getting it right more than half the time.


Agree it's absurdly difficult.  Do not agree that getting it right "more than half the time" is a good outcome, which is why various entities are looking to rethink flu vaccination.

Congrats to us BTW on nailing the third wave dynamics and what's afloat.  You absolutely nailed the time frame even if you missed the location (Michigan instead of Florida) because of the weights you put on various factors.  Still, credit where credit is due...pretty much described the dynamic which would take place and we can see from Europe what the result would have been but for vaccines.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 30, 2021)

crush said:


> I think we agree the the war in Nam was BS, right?  To all the brave men & woman WHO fought in that shit, I love you.  My older brother was a gunner at 17 years young.  50% death rate.  Why?  Watch this video.  I actually see him in the video.  Insane.  BTW, he was saved years ago after dealing with all his PTSD.  Liars will pay for their crimes so they can make a buck!!!


How do you feel about our intervention in Latin America and the Middle East?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The CDC IS an agency of the government, at least it is once again on paper and in a United effort. Millions followed the ever changing in direction bouncing ball that was the previous admin. Now we have a coordinated, honest effort.


What's happening at the border totally belies this.  Funny too the migrants in San Diego will be getting in person schooling before some other kids in the area.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> Mildly funny anecdote....on NBC this morning they had their Covid expert, Dr. Jha (Mr. Worst Case Scenario), on offering his opinion that only we can prevent the spread of coronavirus.  Later on they asked him why Texas, Arkansas and Florida was decreasing in cases if they opened everything up while states that Michigan, that still had mandates, was increasing in cases.  He said it was because of the weather!  You can't make this shit up.


And you couldn’t put two and two together? Lol! I’m laughing at you not with you.


----------



## watfly (Mar 30, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> You sure Dr. Jha isn't Dad4?


No math, no restaurant and housing shaming and no discussion of the level of alcohol use in Utah...So yes I'm positive he's not Dad4.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> What's happening at the border totally belies this.  Funny too the migrants in San Diego will be getting in person schooling before some other kids in the area.


“belies”? In what way? Remember I don’t speak nutter bumper sticker stimuli.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 30, 2021)

Canada rising.  No surprise here given what's up in Michigan....









						Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## crush (Mar 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How do you feel about our intervention in Latin America and the Middle East?


I hate war!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Canada rising.  No surprise here given what's up in Michigan....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


In the US besides Michigan, hard hit NY and Rhode Island are rising but not as fast, but all of New England and as far south as Maryland are going up on the eastern seaboard.  It's almost like weather and regional patterns are the chief movers of when a wave will hit.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You standard for flu forecasting is absurdly high: look at a dozen or so variants in circulation, guess which 3 will be most common, and be right on all three.  And you have to do it all several months in advance,
> 
> If you want to know how well they do, compare the average flu year to a bad flu year.  They’re getting it right more than half the time.


So why did we shutdown again?  You know?  Since they get it right half the time?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The CDC IS an agency of the government, at least it is once again on paper and in a United effort. Millions followed the ever changing in direction bouncing ball that was the previous admin. Now we have a coordinated, honest effort.


Classic


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 30, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1376960920849506304


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 30, 2021)

Interesting how open vs closed states look rather similar. 



"What can we conclude from such a visualization? It suggests that the lockdowns have had no statistically observable effect on the virus trajectory and resulting severe outcomes. The open states have generally performed better, perhaps not because they are open but simply for reasons of demographics and seasonality. *The closed states seem not to have achieved anything in terms of mitigation*. "

--

"What’s striking about all the above predictions of infections and deaths is not just that they were all wrong. It’s the arrogance and confidence behind each of them. *After a full year and directly observing the inability of “nonpharmaceutical interventions” to manage the pathogen, the experts are still wedded to their beloved lockdowns, unable or unwilling to look at the data and learn anything from them. *

The concept of lockdowns stemmed from a faulty premise: that you can separate humans, like rats in cages, and therefore control and even eradicate the virus. After a year, we unequivocally know this not to be true, something that the best and wisest epidemiologists knew all along. Essential workers still must work; they must go home to their families, many in crowded living conditions. Lockdowns do not eliminate the virus, they merely shift the burden onto the working class.  

Now we can see the failure in black, white, and full color, daily appearing on our screens courtesy of the CDC. Has that shaken the pro-lockdown pundit class? Not that much. What an amazing testament to the stubbornness of elite opinion and its bias against basic freedoms."

--



"So it was in Texas. Thanks to this Twitter thread, and some of my own googling, we have a nice archive of predictions about what would happen if Texas opened. "​

California Governor Gavin Newsom said that opening Texas was “absolutely reckless.”
Gregg Popovich, head coach of the NBA San Antonio Spurs, said opening was “ridiculous” and “ignorant.”
CNN quoted an ICU nurse saying “I’m scared of what this is going to look like.”
_Vanity Fair_ went over the top with this headline: “Republican Governors Celebrate COVID Anniversary With Bold Plan to Kill Another 500,000 Americans.”
There was the inevitable Dr. Fauci: “It just is inexplicable why you would want to pull back now.”
Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke of Texas revealed himself to be a full-blown lockdowner: It’s a “big mistake,” he said. “It’s hard to escape the conclusion that it’s also a cult of death.” He accused the governor of “sacrificing the lives of our fellow Texans … for political gain.”
James Hamblin, a doctor and writer for the _Atlantic_, said in a Tweet liked by 20K people: “Ending precautions now is like entering the last miles of a marathon and taking off your shoes and eating several hot dogs.”
Bestselling author Kurt Eichenwald flipped out: “Goddamn. Texas already has FIVE variants that have turned up: Britain, South Africa, Brazil, New York & CA. The NY and CA variants could weaken vaccine effectiveness. And now idiot @GregAbbott_TX throws open the state.” He further called the government “murderous.” 
Epidemiologist Whitney Robinson wrote: “I feel genuinely sad. There are people who are going to get sick and die bc of avoidable infections they get in the next few weeks. It’s demoralizing.”
Pundit Bill Kristol (I had no idea that he was a lockdowner) wrote: “Gov. Abbott is going to be responsible for more avoidable COVID hospitalizations and deaths than all the undocumented immigrants coming across the Texas border put together.”
Health pundit Bob Wachter said the decision to open was “unforgivable.”
Virus guru Michael Osterholm told CNN: “We’re walking into the mouth of the monster. We simply are.”
Joe Biden famously said that the Texas decision to open reflected “Neanderthal thinking.”
Nutritionist Eric Feigl-Ding said that the decision makes him want to “vomit so bad.”
The chairman of the state’s Democratic Party said: “What Abbott is doing is extraordinarily dangerous. This will kill Texans. Our country’s infectious-disease specialists have warned that we should not put our guard down, even as we make progress towards vaccinations. Abbott doesn’t care.”
Other state Democrats said in a letter that the decision was “premature and harmful.”
The CDC’s Rochelle Walensky didn’t mince words: “Please hear me clearly: At this level of cases with variants spreading, we stand to completely lose the hard-earned ground we have gained. I am really worried about reports that more states are rolling back the exact public health measures we have recommended to protect people from COVID-19.”
@dad4 thought it was a terrible idea to open up. 









						Why Is Everyone in Texas Not Dying?
					

"Now we can see the failure in black, white, and full color, daily appearing on our screens courtesy of the CDC. Has that shaken the pro-lockdown pundit class? Not that much. What an amazing testament to the stubbornness of elite opinion and its bias against basic freedoms. They might all echo...




					www.aier.org


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Mar 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> Mildly funny anecdote....on NBC this morning they had their Covid expert, Dr. Jha (Mr. Worst Case Scenario), on offering his opinion that only we can prevent the spread of coronavirus.  Later on they asked him why Texas, Arkansas and Florida was decreasing in cases if they opened everything up while states that Michigan, that still had mandates, was increasing in cases.  He said it was because of the weather!  You can't make this shit up.


He needs to listen to @dad4's advice and quit making predictions


----------



## watfly (Mar 30, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Interesting how open vs closed states look rather similar.
> 
> View attachment 10495
> 
> ...


The power of group think when you have a narrative to push.  

I still think that Texas may see a small spike....it's just the nature of the virus.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> The power of group think when you have a narrative to push.
> 
> I still think that Texas may see a small spike....it's just the nature of the virus.


Visits the nature of our immune systems.  Pretty amazing system compared to today's poorly equipped vaccines.


----------



## happy9 (Mar 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The CDC IS an agency of the government, at least it is once again on paper and in a United effort. Millions followed the ever changing in direction bouncing ball that was the previous admin. Now we have a coordinated, honest effort.


Really?  Do you really believe that? Is it now a serious organization that we should get behind? 

So...based on this serious organization's latest messaging, I should lock myself and my family back in my house (never did that), order take out food, and wait for the impending doom waters to recede?  

Government agencies rarely change how they do business.  Their surface rhetoric may change based on appointed leadership  Below the surface it continues to grind away.  What is the CDC saying now that it wasn't saying 6 months ago?  Has their website changed so radically that their messaging is different?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The CDC IS an agency of the government, at least it is once again on paper and in a United effort.


On the contrary.  OSHA is an agency of the government that has not certified the use of the mask we are using, allegedly, against viruses.  Hence the OSHA mandated warning on the mask packaging.  The CDC is in violation of OSHA mandates.


----------



## whatithink (Mar 30, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> On the contrary.  OSHA is an agency of the government that has not certified the use of the mask we are using, allegedly, against viruses.  Hence the OSHA mandated warning on the mask packaging.  The CDC is in violation of OSHA mandates.


I doubt OSHA has the resources to certify every mask that has come out from every major, minor and Mom & Pop retailer in the last 12 or so months, even if they wanted to. 

OSHA "generally recommends" and "strongly encourages" mask usage. It does NOT state that its any type of panacea and states that it is not a substitute for social distancing.

TBH, their guidance seems pretty common sense and straight forward to me, along the lines of masks help, something is better than nothing, some masks are better than others, none of them are a substitute for social distancing.

I'm not a particular fan of masks, but I wear them, not least out of respect and courtesy to the employees of the stores, restaurants etc. that I am using and that are asking me to. I want them open, I want people in jobs, and if that means I need to wear a mask into a store, then so what. If I need to wear one to walk to a table in a restaurant, so what. Its an annoyance basically, but it'll pass soon enough I expect once we hit some critical mass on vaccines.

COVID-19 - Frequently Asked Questions | Occupational Safety and Health Administration (osha.gov)


----------



## dad4 (Mar 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In the US besides Michigan, hard hit NY and Rhode Island are rising but not as fast, but all of New England and as far south as Maryland are going up on the eastern seaboard.  It's almost like weather and regional patterns are the chief movers of when a wave will hit.


Going back to the tired old argument that, if weather is a big factor, then nothing else matters?

I'd think that the UK experience in early 2021 would be enough to retire that claim.  Bad variant, short sunlight, winter weather, ... and improving cases.  

We can also point to AU/NZ in May-July 2020.  Or Vermont.  Or Canada.  Or Harbin.

BIZ tried this bogus argument, though he isn't lucid enough to state it.  It doesn't hold up.  Weather is a major factor.  Weather is not proof of inevitably.  Next argument.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I doubt OSHA has the resources to certify every mask that has come out from every major, minor and Mom & Pop retailer in the last 12 or so months, even if they wanted to.
> 
> OSHA "generally recommends" and "strongly encourages" mask usage. It does NOT state that its any type of panacea and states that it is not a substitute for social distancing.
> 
> ...


Sounds good.  If Something is better than nothing why did we lock down the entire economy?  Many business’s remained closed.  Schools and gyms stayed closed for most of the last year.  All of which were willing to mandate mask AND social distancing.  They were all denied due process.  Like OSHA, CDC is obviously not equipped to handle all the moving pieces of a pandemic.  They picked winners and losers to keep us from going Mad Max.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Going back to the tired old argument that, if weather is a big factor, then nothing else matters?
> 
> I'd think that the UK experience in early 2021 would be enough to retire that claim.  Bad variant, short sunlight, winter weather, ... and improving cases.
> 
> ...


I think it clearly is weather but we don't understand really the mechanisms at work.  It's not as easy as cold weather ---> people go indoors.  Otherwise, you have to somehow explain away why outbreaks happen at the same time across latitudes (SoCal and Florida in the summer 2020 for example) despite not being directly connected.  I agree mobility is another factor.  Density (Vermont or Norway for example), is another factor, though it doesn't seem to be helping either this time around.  You can't cite AU/NZ/China....I think we both agree that very robust lockdowns are effective, where we disagree is the morality, legality and the utility (given the cost/benefit exchange)


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Going back to the tired old argument that, if weather is a big factor, then nothing else matters?
> 
> I'd think that the UK experience in early 2021 would be enough to retire that claim.  Bad variant, short sunlight, winter weather, ... and improving cases.
> 
> ...


Speaking of non-lucid, r-squared is not weather.  Babble on.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I think it clearly is weather but we don't understand really the mechanisms at work.  It's not as easy as cold weather ---> people go indoors.  Otherwise, you have to somehow explain away why outbreaks happen at the same time across latitudes (SoCal and Florida in the summer 2020 for example) despite not being directly connected.  I agree mobility is another factor.  Density (Vermont or Norway for example), is another factor, though it doesn't seem to be helping either this time around.  You can't cite AU/NZ/China....I think we both agree that very robust lockdowns are effective, where we disagree is the morality, legality and the utility (given the cost/benefit exchange)


Don’t forget the 12,800 pandemics since 1978.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 30, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Speaking of non-lucid, r-squared is not weather.  Babble on.


Care to explain your r squared argument?

Not cut and paste page after page from some internet loon.  Actually think and explain your position.

Seeing as you seem to have outsourced your thinking to Tom Wood, I don't expect we will see much.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Care to explain your r squared argument?
> 
> Not cut and paste page after page from some internet loon.  Actually think and explain your position.
> 
> Seeing as you seem to have outsourced your thinking to Tom Wood, I don't expect we will see much.


Lol!  Come on stat guy.  You’ve made my argument for me several times.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 30, 2021)

crush said:


> I hate war!!!


Yeah I can see why you can’t answer that in the way you did Vietnam.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Mar 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Care to explain your r squared argument?
> 
> Not cut and paste page after page from some internet loon.  Actually think and explain your position.
> 
> Seeing as you seem to have outsourced your thinking to Tom Wood, I don't expect we will see much.


Never have never will.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Never have never will.


Hanapaa!!


----------



## whatithink (Mar 31, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Sounds good.  If Something is better than nothing why did we lock down the entire economy?  Many business’s remained closed.  Schools and gyms stayed closed for most of the last year.  All of which were willing to mandate mask AND social distancing.  They were all denied due process.  Like OSHA, CDC is obviously not equipped to handle all the moving pieces of a pandemic.  They picked winners and losers to keep us from going Mad Max.


Hindsight is 2020. I assume when you say "They", you are talking about various legislatures rather than OSHA or the CDC. The beauty of that is that they can be voted out if enough people agree with you.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I think it clearly is weather but we don't understand really the mechanisms at work.  It's not as easy as cold weather ---> people go indoors.  Otherwise, you have to somehow explain away why outbreaks happen at the same time across latitudes (SoCal and Florida in the summer 2020 for example) despite not being directly connected.  I agree mobility is another factor.  Density (Vermont or Norway for example), is another factor, though it doesn't seem to be helping either this time around.  You can't cite AU/NZ/China....I think we both agree that very robust lockdowns are effective, where we disagree is the morality, legality and the utility (given the cost/benefit exchange)


Agree it is complicated, but we know most of the factors by now.   You have to pay attention to masks, weather, daylight hours, staying outside, indoor gathering, indoor dining, pop density, vaccine distribution, median age, housing patterns, and mobility.  You only get bad results when you try to look at one factor while excluding the others.

With respect to “very robust” lockdowns, I am not sure we agree what those words mean, or whether it counts as draconian.  

I have no problem with very large fines for indoor gatherings.  1% of income plus 0.1% of assets would be enough to make most people move outside.  To you, it probably sounds like Stasi are kicking in the door.  

If that fine sounds high, remember that the current system has resulted in around a half million deaths and ten million unemployed.  A few $5000 fines sounds not so bad in that context.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I have no problem with very large fines for indoor gatherings. 1% of income plus 0.1% of assets would be enough to make most people move outside. To you, it probably sounds like Stasi are kicking in the door.
> 
> If that fine sounds high, remember that the current system has resulted in around a half million deaths and ten million unemployed. A few $5000 fines sounds not so bad in that context.


I always like to check in to see what your "Bad Idea of the Day" is.

You set a high mark for today.


dad4 said:


> You only get bad results when you try to look at one factor while excluding the others.


This quote is particularly rich. You have constantly harped on one factor all year long. Any guesses as to which one? OK...I will help. Indoor dining.


----------



## crush (Mar 31, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I always like to check in to see what your *"Bad Idea of the Day"* is.
> 
> You set a high mark for today.
> 
> This quote is particularly rich. You have constantly harped on one factor all year long. Any guesses as to which one? OK...I will help. Indoor dining.


Hound with a great add on to the socal soccer jungle.  Dad 4 get's that award everyday.  EOTL came on strong early yesterday and had some takes but then went race hater with race bait added to the race hook.  I will give him credit for not mentioning my dd or every fathers dds on here.  I would stop with that bullshit right about now.  Not a good way to make a point.  I told everyone back in 2020, that 2021 will be the year for the woman, the girls and all the kids.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Agree it is complicated, but we know most of the factors by now.   You have to pay attention to masks, weather, daylight hours, staying outside, indoor gathering, indoor dining, pop density, vaccine distribution, median age, housing patterns, and mobility.  You only get bad results when you try to look at one factor while excluding the others.
> 
> With respect to “very robust” lockdowns, I am not sure we agree what those words mean, or whether it counts as draconian.
> 
> ...


Again the problem is not all the factors carry an equal weight. You’ve consistently put too much weight on some factors while not enough on others which is why you got Michigan v Texas wrong.

I agree with hound this is your bad idea of the day. At my own church it would have meant at least 5 families getting that sanction.  It’s not politically feasible particularly when one parties sacred vows (the border, the protests) go untouched and politicians like newsom are doing the French laundry


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again the problem is not all the factors carry an equal weight. You’ve consistently put too much weight on some factors while not enough on others which is why you got Michigan v Texas wrong.
> 
> I agree with hound this is your bad idea of the day. At my own church it would have meant at least 5 families getting that sanction.  It’s not politically feasible particularly when one parties sacred vows (the border, the protests) go untouched and politicians like newsom are doing the French laundry


Cows. The biggest problem with your plan is enforcement. OZ/Europe basically did it by strict lockdowns and roadblocks...just banning indoor gatherings gives the police no way to police this except loud parties where there are multiple noise complaints by neighbors.  You’d basically have to rely on an army of Karen’s to inform on their neighbors for hosting dinner parties and visits to grandma.


----------



## Desert Hound (Mar 31, 2021)

This is for @Grace T. since she refers to the red pill frequently.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Agree it is complicated, but we know most of the factors by now.   You have to pay attention to masks, weather, daylight hours, staying outside, indoor gathering, indoor dining, pop density, vaccine distribution, median age, housing patterns, and mobility.  You only get bad results when you try to look at one factor while excluding the others.


Looking is fine.  Mandating is where you cause problems worse then the one you think you can fix given the high survival rate.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I have no problem with very large fines for indoor gatherings.  1% of income plus 0.1% of assets would be enough to make most people move outside.  To you, it probably sounds like Stasi are kicking in the door.


Sounds like Costco with their faulty mask.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If that fine sounds high, remember that the current system has resulted in around a half million deaths and ten million unemployed.  A few $5000 fines sounds not so bad in that context.


1% of Costco's income and 0.1% of their assets is a large number for multiple large gatherings at Costco's nationwide.  How should we proceed when Costco passes those cost on to the consumer?   Hayek had people like you in mind when he said "the curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they know about what they imagine they can design".


----------



## dad4 (Mar 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Cows. The biggest problem with your plan is enforcement. OZ/Europe basically did it by strict lockdowns and roadblocks...just banning indoor gatherings gives the police no way to police this except loud parties where there are multiple noise complaints by neighbors.  You’d basically have to rely on an army of Karen’s to inform on their neighbors for hosting dinner parties and visits to grandma.


Like it or not, the army of busy-bodies exists.  If you had an enforced rule against indoor gatherings, people would drop a dime on their neighbors.  Besides, you can just look for the cars.  If you’re too lazy to hold your party outside, your guests probably drove to get there.  You’ll miss the 2 family dinners, but that’s kind of the point.

It’s hard to say if I missed Michigan because I undervalued weather or because I didn’t guess that Michigan would open up as wide as they did.  I suspect it was a big dose of both.  

The MI reopening is one more case where my political tea leaves are worthless.  I keep thinking “no one is that stupid” and being proven wrong.

I’m still baffled by the politics of New York’s and California’s reopening plans.  By now, it ought to be clear that we should open schools before gyms, bars, and restaurants.  But that does not seem to be what we are doing.   We sacrifice our long term economic health for the sake of a night on the town.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Like it or not, the army of busy-bodies exists.  If you had an enforced rule against indoor gatherings, people would drop a dime on their neighbors.  Besides, you can just look for the cars.  If you’re too lazy to hold your party outside, your guests probably drove to get there.  You’ll miss the 2 family dinners, but that’s kind of the point.
> 
> It’s hard to say if I missed Michigan because I undervalued weather or because I didn’t guess that Michigan would open up as wide as they did.  I suspect it was a big dose of both.
> 
> ...


I'm not shocked that you're baffled.  Your socioeconomics is about as tunnel-visioned as your statistics.  You should be a politician.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Like it or not, the army of busy-bodies exists.  If you had an enforced rule against indoor gatherings, people would drop a dime on their neighbors.  Besides, you can just look for the cars.  If you’re too lazy to hold your party outside, your guests probably drove to get there.  You’ll miss the 2 family dinners, but that’s kind of the point.
> 
> It’s hard to say if I missed Michigan because I undervalued weather or because I didn’t guess that Michigan would open up as wide as they did.  I suspect it was a big dose of both.
> 
> ...


Remember the term "Karen" arose from white women calling the police on people of color.  No problem there.  As I've told you before, it's just not realistic to expect some unmarried 20 year old guy to go a year plus without hooking up with someone.  The idea of getting neighbors to inform on neighbors is positively Soviet and would have long term consequences that would last for years to come.

Like it or not, you do have a totalitarian streak.  It's very Buzz and Star Command.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Remember the term "Karen" arose from white women calling the police on people of color.  No problem there.  As I've told you before, it's just not realistic to expect some unmarried 20 year old guy to go a year plus without hooking up with someone.  The idea of getting neighbors to inform on neighbors is positively Soviet and would have long term consequences that would last for years to come.
> 
> Like it or not, you do have a totalitarian streak.  It's very Buzz and Star Command.


I figure that using “Karen” to refer to a busy-body is no more acceptable than using “Maria” or “Tyrone” to refer to some other negative personality trait.  It’s one of those things we can do without.

”Busy-body” works just fine.

-Buzz


----------



## MARsSPEED (Mar 31, 2021)

*FYI, and please use common sense, as brought to you by the CDC-*

0.0004% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age 17
4.4% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age of 50
95.6% of all CoVid Deaths are above age 50
80% of all CoVid Deaths are above age 65
58.6% of all CoVid Deaths are above age 75
*(Average life expectency in the US is age 78)*
31% of all CoVid deaths are above age 85

It is a fact that if pass away and test positive for CoVid, the death is included in the overall number. 94% of all CoVid deaths are are paired with an average of 3.8 underlying conditions, whether heart conditions, pneumonia, diabetes, dementia, and even suicide. (Again, per the CDC). Now, looking at the percentages of age of death combined with underlying conditions, ask your self if it's possible or how many of these reported deaths were a result of CoVid with underlying conditions, or perhaps an underlying conditions death with a positive CoVid test. 

Now, with that information, we know seniors are all currently getting vaccinated, essentially eliminating the massive death toll we've seen in the near future. Or will it...the yearly morbidity rate may say something different...but anyways. Yes, we'll have a few idiots that are anti-vaxxers and probably learn there lesson the hard. I got my vax with the goal of stopping the chance of spread although I wear my mask everywhere it is required. More on that later.

*So kids vs. teachers...*
0.0004% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age 17
19.4% of all CoVid Deaths are between the age of 18-64.
In 2019, the Flu killed more kids than CoVid and Flu *COMBINED* in 2020.
Positive tests of ages 25-65 outnumber positives in children at a rate nearly 4x meaning teachers are more likely to catch CoVid from the break room or grocery store than they would be teaching. Thank your local grocery store worker the next time you see them!

Aaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnddddddddddd, anyone care to guess how much the suicide rate increased and what the numbers are? Well we don't know yet and will not know for awhile. But I'm willing to bet it could hundreds more than CoVid killed. What about childhood depression? What about falling behind? Both well documented. Thanks Teach!

*Oh, and what about youth sports?*
Yeah, 0.0004% of all CoVid deaths for those under 18 plus the fact Flu killed more kids in 2019 than Flu and CoVid combined in 2020 did? I don't need to say anything else do I? By the way, out here in the east, Jefferson Cup has been going on for about 4 weeks. Even had some teams from SoCal attend I believe. No restrictions on numbers either. Guess what? No CoVid outbreaks either.

*Now my favorite! Masks!!!!!! (Disclaimer - I follow mask rules and mandates)*
Not sure if you remember but Mask mandates have been around nationwide for a while now, long before the beginning of November. Same goes for indoor dining along with many other restrictions. If these mandates where thought to work so well, THEN WHY DID WE SEE A DRASTIC RISE IN INFECTIONS FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY?????? Oh, I'll tell you why because they haven't bothered to tell you. Every year we see a drastic rise in virus and bacteria infections during the same months. Same goes for deaths. No different than any other year. So I ask you, did all of these mandates have a drastic change in numbers?

*But, but, but, the Brazilian Variant!!!!!!!*
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well shame on me. Our government just experienced power like they never have before. You think they aren't going to want to keep. Bitch, please. 

#thinkcritically


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I figure that using “Karen” to refer to a busy-body is no more acceptable than using “Maria” or “Tyrone” to refer to some other negative personality trait.  It’s one of those things we can do without.
> 
> ”Busy-body” works just fine.
> 
> -Buzz


It sort of now both refers to both a busy-body (such as a person calling out another one for not wearing masks) and someone who feels entitled (like the person complaining about their rights to not wear a mask).  Karens all around.  Still, the problem arose from white people complaining about POC and informing on them to the police.  Same issue with your plan, among the various problems.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 31, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> *FYI, and please use common sense, as brought to you by the CDC-*
> 
> 0.0004% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age 17
> 4.4% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age of 50
> ...


Which states actually required masks and closed indoor dining from October through March?  

It’s kind of the bare minimum for prevention, and not even CA did both consistently.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Which states actually required masks and closed indoor dining from October through March?
> 
> It’s kind of the bare minimum for prevention, and not even CA did both consistently.


Los Angeles did.  Didn't help much.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Which states actually required masks and closed indoor dining from October through March?
> 
> It’s kind of the bare minimum for prevention, and not even CA did both consistently.


I’ll take LA County for $1000!  
- Never opened Indoor Dining
- Consistent Mask’s Mandates
- Closed Beaches and Outdoor Parks
- Lead the State in Cases and Deaths 

So now list your variable excuses:
- Housing Policy - was in place BEFORE Covid- OUT
- People didn’t listen - a result of the policy making and leadership (or lack there of) - OUT
- Open Mexico borders - VALID but why only LA Co and not San Diego?
- Improper Mask use - OUT was no different than any other County or State. 

Did I miss anything?


----------



## dad4 (Mar 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Los Angeles did.  Didn't help much.


LA also has a high R variant and a million people living like sardines.  The fact that you got through winter with only 45% infected is a sign that the masks and dining closures helped rather a lot.

If LA had a weaker intervention, like the Dakotas, it seems likely you would have had an outcome worse than the Dakotas.  70% or 80% infected, instead of 45%.  Those evil masks and dining closures probably reduced your deaths by about half.  So, it helped.

Can you name anywhere else which actually enforced a mask mandate and closed indoor dining from October through March?


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> LA also has a high R variant and a million people living like sardines.  The fact that you got through winter with only 45% infected is a sign that the masks and dining closures helped rather a lot.
> 
> If LA had a weaker intervention, like the Dakotas, it seems likely you would have had an outcome worse than the Dakotas.  70% or 80% infected, instead of 45%.  Those evil masks and dining closures probably reduced your deaths by about half.  So, it helped.
> 
> Can you name anywhere else which actually enforced a mask mandate and closed indoor dining from October through March?


Yes, Spain.  Toughest mask mandate in Europe...no gaiters and bandanas for them.  Indoor dining closed at the beginning of October, relaxed in January.  Still got a winter wave.

And just to quibble: 1. not all Los Angeles is packed as sardines, 2. as others have pointed out density is baked in....fix density is not pandemic health policy, 3. it's not just density but also forcing people into work (areas where people have to go into work like in Oxnard in Ventura County have higher rates than the Conejo despite roughly the same spread of condos, single family homes and apartment complexes), and 4. I think your numbers for the Dakotas are overly inflated...North Dakota's cases are rising slightly again and they are average at roughly 200 cases a day...with vaccination on top of that, if they were at 80% infected they should really be at herd immunity by now....my guess is the number is closer to 60% but that's just pulling something out of my ass.


----------



## MARsSPEED (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> LA also has a high R variant and a million people living like sardines.  The fact that you got through winter with only 45% infected is a sign that the masks and dining closures helped rather a lot.
> 
> If LA had a weaker intervention, like the Dakotas, it seems likely you would have had an outcome worse than the Dakotas.  70% or 80% infected, instead of 45%.  Those evil masks and dining closures probably reduced your deaths by about half.  So, it helped.
> 
> Can you name anywhere else which actually enforced a mask mandate and closed indoor dining from October through March?



@dad4 FYI - New York, as well documented also had heavy restaurant restrictions over winter. Didn't stop their spike either. In fact their current rate is still higher than both Texas and Florida, even after Spring Break. Yes, I know, restaurants are now open at 75%. Good for them. Obviously shutting them down wasn't a big help. Hell, it could even be worse knowing Cuomo now.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes, Spain.  Toughest mask mandate in Europe...no gaiters and bandanas for them.  Indoor dining closed at the beginning of October, relaxed in January.  Still got a winter wave.
> 
> And just to quibble: 1. not all Los Angeles is packed as sardines, 2. as others have pointed out density is baked in....fix density is not pandemic health policy, 3. it's not just density but also forcing people into work (areas where people have to go into work like in Oxnard in Ventura County have higher rates than the Conejo despite roughly the same spread of condos, single family homes and apartment complexes), and 4. I think your numbers for the Dakotas are overly inflated...North Dakota's cases are rising slightly again and they are average at roughly 200 cases a day...with vaccination on top of that, if they were at 80% infected they should really be at herd immunity by now....my guess is the number is closer to 60% but that's just pulling something out of my ass.


It’s worth looking at Spain. 

That “winter wave” started in August.  Around the time much of Europe was going on holiday and reopening.    Let’s call it the vacation/reopening wave, because that fits the timing better.

The vacation/reopening wave peaked in late October, 2-3 weeks after they closed indoor dining.

Under that indoor dining ban, cases continued to decline until early December.  Meanwhile, the central US had no mask mandates, no dining ban, and the worst case rates in the world.

At least for Aug-December, Spain is a clear case study in why you should wear a good mask and close your indoor dining.

Dec-Jan things got bad again.  I suspect Christmas travel made things worse.  And it’s worth asking whether the regions relaxed as numbers fell.


----------



## Glitterhater (Mar 31, 2021)

I still think that even if we'd have left everything open, restaurants, personal care, small biz, etc., still would have taken a massive hit. With the messaging that was being put out on how this thing spreads & how serious it can be, close to half the population would still have stayed home more often in some capacity. Especially in more affluent areas, (ie Tech,) where locking down doesn't mean much to them. They get take out, do Instacart, hire tutors, work from home.
This whole thing has exposed just how wide the "gap" has gotten and still is. I fear the effects are going to be felt for a long time.
I am an introvert, so I tease that i've been training for this pandemic my whole life- I know that is not the same for everyone. Saw my son's Oncologist today, (whom I trust more than any other physician, as he also has training in infectious disease,) and he still said it's important to wear a mask and distance - NOT HIDE OUT, but be smart. Why is it so hard for people to just "be smart"?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 31, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> *FYI, and please use common sense, as brought to you by the CDC-*
> 
> 0.0004% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age 17
> 4.4% of all CoVid Deaths are under the age of 50
> ...


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s worth looking at Spain.
> 
> That “winter wave” started in August.  Around the time much of Europe was going on holiday and reopening.    Let’s call it the vacation/reopening wave, because that fits the timing better.
> 
> ...


You’ve been nothing but suspect.  Please continue.


----------



## Grace T. (Mar 31, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s worth looking at Spain.
> 
> That “winter wave” started in August.  Around the time much of Europe was going on holiday and reopening.    Let’s call it the vacation/reopening wave, because that fits the timing better.
> 
> ...


Spains mask mandate has been in tact throughout. At a minimum you’ll concede the mask mandate failed to prevent 2 waves in spain?  Despite the restrictions which came online in October they got the 3rd dec-January wave which you now explain away with “well Christmas”.


----------



## dad4 (Mar 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Spains mask mandate has been in tact throughout. At a minimum you’ll concede the mask mandate failed to prevent 2 waves in spain?  Despite the restrictions which came online in October they got the 3rd dec-January wave which you now explain away with “well Christmas”.


sure.  masks alone are not enough even for summer.  You need something else, too.  (Numerically, a 45% reduction in transmission is significant, but not sufficient, against a disease with R0=3.  You need some kind of additional reductions in transmission.)

I don’t pretend to understand the dec3-Jan30 wave.  I think Christmas added to it, but I doubt even Spain starts holiday travel on Dec 01.  Nor does b.1.1.7 seem likely that early.  It‘s not consistent with the sequencing data.

 That’s why I suggested looking at the regions.  The double bump makes me ask “what did people change at the end of November?  Something changed.   It went from a nice exponential decline straight into a quick growth toward a higher peak.  Seems a bit quick to be nothing but weather.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 1, 2021)

This is interesting.









						Coronavirus spread on flight, in hotel corridor, New Zealand study finds
					

The coronavirus spread on an international flight, in a hotel corridor and then to household contacts despite efforts to isolate and quarantine patients, New Zealand researchers reported Thursday.




					www.cnn.com
				




Closed-circuit television shows one of the people infected on the flight and two people infected in the hotel were never in direct contact and were not even outside their rooms at the same time, the researchers said.
"Nevertheless, footage showed that during routine testing on day 12, which took place within the doorway of the hotel rooms, there was a 50-second window between closing the door to the room of case-patient C and opening the door to the room of case-patients D and E. Therefore, we hypothesized that suspended aerosol particles were the probable mode of transmission in this instance, and that the enclosed and unventilated space in the hotel corridor probably facilitated this event," they wrote.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> sure.  masks alone are not enough even for summer.  You need something else, too.  (Numerically, a 45% reduction in transmission is significant, but not sufficient, against a disease with R0=3.  You need some kind of additional reductions in transmission.)
> 
> I don’t pretend to understand the dec3-Jan30 wave.  I think Christmas added to it, but I doubt even Spain starts holiday travel on Dec 01.  Nor does b.1.1.7 seem likely that early.  It‘s not consistent with the sequencing data.
> 
> That’s why I suggested looking at the regions.  The double bump makes me ask “what did people change at the end of November?  Something changed.   It went from a nice exponential decline straight into a quick growth toward a higher peak.  Seems a bit quick to be nothing but weather.


My guess would mean mobility. But that would mean that while closing things like indoor dining will help, short of oz/nz/Europe at the beginning of this by keeping people locked in their homes, the government restrictions don’t help as much as people just freaking out and deciding to be more careful on their own. It’s probably why Belgium’s curve inflects downward before their government puts in place lockdowns


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This is interesting.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Tells us a few things:

1. despite airline propaganda studies airlines were always a likely source of spread. The fact that the planes kept flying meant govt wasn’t serious about actually containing this
2. Masks might have helped but did not stop the spread, probably because of the length of time. If we were serious about masks we would have used them as mitigation for short term contacts
3. Countries are not serious about containment if they don’t control their borders
4. It’s aerosolized. Indoor situations like this are high danger areas...if aerosolized anything short of a medical grade mask will be of limited help.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This is interesting.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I wonder if they looked at the vents as well.  That's how I caught it at the start of all this and seems to have been a factor in the cruise ship outbreaks.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 1, 2021)

So with that article, how do you all feel about staying in hotels?
And I don't mean hanging at the bar, milling about in the lobby, etc. Just checking in and heading straight to your room- always wearing a mask.


----------



## espola (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I wonder if they looked at the vents as well.  That's how I caught it at the start of all this and seems to have been a factor in the cruise ship outbreaks.


How do you know it was the vents?


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Apr 1, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> So with that article, how do you all feel about staying in hotels?
> And I don't mean hanging at the bar, milling about in the lobby, etc. Just checking in and heading straight to your room- always wearing a mask.


I'm generally out of town for work, living out of a suitcase. I've been out of town 10 of the past 13 months and havent caught it. Maybe I've just been lucky but this includes 4 weekends in Az with the family in hotels...who knows.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

espola said:


> How do you know it was the vents?


Person tested positive.  Our doors are on opposite sides of a wall and different corridors and exit so I didn't get exposed there.  Our main contact is that we share the same vent that splits into a y.  Other possibility was the rest room but I didn't ever see her there but possible.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> So with that article, how do you all feel about staying in hotels?
> And I don't mean hanging at the bar, milling about in the lobby, etc. Just checking in and heading straight to your room- always wearing a mask.


It's the same as any other indoor situation (indoor dining, gym, etc).  Here would be my own hierarchy of questions I'd ask for family.

1. Am I in a vulnerable group?  If yes, go to 3.  If no go on.
2. Am I a generally fearful, cautious person or less risk adverse? If yes, go on, if no skip to 6
3. Am I fully vaccinated and have sufficient time to develop antibodies?  If no, and answered yes to 1, don't go.  If no and answered yes to 2 go on.  If yes, go.
4. Do I have at least one dose of the vaccine and have given time for antibodies to develop?  If no, go to 5.  If yes, go to 6.
5. Do I wear a decent mask and is there a mask mandate around me?  If yes, go to 6, if no, don't go.
6. Do I feel comfortable with the possibility I might still come down with it despite my precautions, but know I will likely not die, but still might get it?  If yes, go to 7.  If no, don't go.
7.  How important is this to me?  If not, dont.  If yes, go.


----------



## MARsSPEED (Apr 1, 2021)

Based on the NZ Study, it tells me nothing can be done about the transmission, masks or not. Good luck trying to control a virus that is aerosolized. You're only protection is vaccination.

Vaccination is whole other subject. Nobody has any idea what the long term affects are yet. While I received mine, I will hold off on my daughters until we know more.


----------



## espola (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Person tested positive.  Our doors are on opposite sides of a wall and different corridors and exit so I didn't get exposed there.  Our main contact is that we share the same vent that splits into a y.  Other possibility was the rest room but I didn't ever see her there but possible.


Sketchy.


----------



## crush (Apr 1, 2021)

espola said:


> Sketchy.


Yo fool, WTF is up with you dude?  Do you care about all the girls who will one day become a woman?


----------



## crush (Apr 1, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

espola said:


> Sketchy.


^\_(;?)_/^


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

Michigan is nearing its winter (or as dad4 would likely says...it's thanksgiving) peak.  Canada not looking so great either.









						Michigan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Michigan COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## espola (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> ^\_(;?)_/^


Was that the only person who could have passed you the infection?


----------



## watfly (Apr 1, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> So with that article, how do you all feel about staying in hotels?
> And I don't mean hanging at the bar, milling about in the lobby, etc. Just checking in and heading straight to your room- always wearing a mask.


Personally I have no qualms about staying in a hotel.  While I didn't make a habit out of it during Covid, I did stay in hotels a couple times and enjoyed the lobby with a mask on and the bar and pool with a mask off.  I also had no qualms about flying during Covid and did so a few times.  Always mask on at airports and planes except for eating and drinking.  I'm glad airlines are starting to recover, but I'm going to miss those Covid flights with the middle seat open.

Ultimately, it's up to you as to the level of risk your willing to accept (I like Grace's "checklist").  I perceived the risk to be very low and that's either been proven, or maybe I just got lucky.  I suspect it's some combination of both, with luck only playing a small role.  Like I've said before and as a doctor was quoted as saying "be smart".  I've taken the "don't hide, be smart" and maintain a balanced approach and it has worked well for my family.  My 17 yo daughter just got her first vaccination yesterday (because she volunteers for Meals on Wheels) and my wife and I are scheduled for Saturday.  Time to move on.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

espola said:


> Was that the only person who could have passed you the infection?


No, but the most likely.  I had already pulled back my own personal behavior (remember back in February I was saying we were already having unnoticed COVID outbreaks in the US), had stockpiled on toilet paper and supplies at the end of January and was telling people the entire country would likely be shut down in a couple weeks.  I was also extremely busy with preparations for the shutdown and resulting economic chaos at work and with my kid's school so I was basically in my office 12 hours a day.  Parents had been isolated, at least one kid had caught it from me (not vice versa), my assistant never ill (but perhaps could have been asymptomatic).


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> Personally I have no qualms about staying in a hotel.  While I didn't make a habit out of it during Covid, I did stay in hotels a couple times and enjoyed the lobby with a mask on and the bar and pool with a mask off.  I also had no qualms about flying during Covid and did so a few times.  Always mask on at airports and planes except for eating and drinking.  I'm glad airlines are starting to recover, but I'm going to miss those Covid flights with the middle seat open.
> 
> Ultimately, it's up to you as to the level of risk your willing to accept (I like Grace's "checklist").  I perceived the risk to be very low and that's either been proven, or maybe I just got lucky.  I suspect it's some combination of both, with luck only playing a small role.  Like I've said before and as a doctor was quoted as saying "be smart".  I've taken the "don't hide, be smart" and maintain a balanced approach and it has worked well for my family.  My 17 yo daughter just got her first vaccination yesterday (because she volunteers for Meals on Wheels) and my wife and I are scheduled for Saturday.  Time to move on.


For 4. you can also substitute have I had it via a confirmed test in the last 6 months?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 1, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> Based on the NZ Study, it tells me nothing can be done about the transmission, masks or not. Good luck trying to control a virus that is aerosolized. You're only protection is vaccination.
> 
> Vaccination is whole other subject. Nobody has any idea what the long term affects are yet. While I received mine, I will hold off on my daughters until we know more.


Why would vaccination be your only protection?  We are equipped with an immune system that has obviously and overwhelmingly dealt with Corona and a host of other respiratory diseases over the centuries.  I am, and yet am not, surprised at how little our amazing Immune system is talked about here.  Many of you have painted such a fragile picture of mankind despite the hockey stick of human flourishing over the last couple of centuries.  You would rather talk about seasons, P-values, mask, distancing, dining out, etc..  All of these issues have consumed your narrative while your Immune System fights for your life.  I am glad that there are no cowards in our immune systems.  As a species we would have been gone with the Dinosaurs .  MARsSPEED this is a general statement and not only directed at you but to the willful cowards among us.  Good grief!  Eat Well, Exercise, Sleep Well and do whatever it is you love to do.  Sing the praises of how wonderfully you are put together.  If any virus is meant to wipe out the human race then so be it.  This is the Way.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

Good times in Belgium


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1377691890875793412


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 1, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10512


Shocking.  What an indictment of our education system that yielded so many idiot sheep.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> Based on the NZ Study, it tells me nothing can be done about the transmission, masks or not. Good luck trying to control a virus that is aerosolized. You're only protection is vaccination.
> 
> Vaccination is whole other subject. Nobody has any idea what the long term affects are yet. While I received mine, I will hold off on my daughters until we know more.


I think you are confusing two ways to measure transmission control.

Q1- can we eliminate all transmission?

Q2- can we lower transmission to the point that the case count declines towards zero?

These are NOT the same question.  

Q1 is equivalent to " can we get Rt=0".  

Q2 is equivalent to " can we get Rt<1 ?".

Not the same thing at all.  Q1 is impossible.  Q2 has been done many times in many different places.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think you are confusing two ways to measure transmission control.
> 
> Q1- can we eliminate all transmission?
> 
> ...


This is the heart of why you are looking at this wrong from purely a math point of view.   In the real world there is actually a Q1a and Q1b.  Q1a is Australia and OZ where we can get all transmissions down effectively to a handful and can prevent any flare up by stamping it down.  Q1b is we can reduce it, but can't keep it there given the measure we are undertaken...the best we can hope for is South Korea at 500 cases per day, but otherwise we are dependent on the weather, or density, and mobility (which is going to go up and down because no government policy is going to be able to keep the 20 year old unmarried go from hooking up from a year plus)....we might be able to drive it down but it's eventually going to go back up again.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is the heart of why you are looking at this wrong from purely a math point of view.   In the real world there is actually a Q1a and Q1b.  Q1a is Australia and OZ where we can get all transmissions down effectively to a handful and can prevent any flare up by stamping it down.  Q1b is we can reduce it, but can't keep it there given the measure we are undertaken...the best we can hope for is South Korea at 500 cases per day, but otherwise we are dependent on the weather, or density, and mobility (which is going to go up and down because no government policy is going to be able to keep the 20 year old unmarried go from hooking up from a year plus)....we might be able to drive it down but it's eventually going to go back up again.


My point was that "we missed this one case of transmission" is not a useful angle on things.

Mars was essentially arguing that, if your transmission control has any leaks, then it is useless. That is not a valid argument.

NZ and OZ are both examples of leaky, but useful, transmission control systems.

Nice of you to show some concern for the 20 year olds.  As long as they shack up for at least a 2-3 weeks at a time, you're probably fine from a covid perspective.

Of course, if the relationships turn over faster than that, then you have a different public health problem.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> My point was that "we missed this one case of transmission" is not a useful angle on things.
> 
> Mars was essentially arguing that, if your transmission control has any leaks, then it is useless. That is not a valid argument.
> 
> ...


OZ and NZ have the control system that you were advocating at the beginning of this....remember all the hoopla about test and trace?  But it required driving cases to as close to zero as possible, stamping out any new fires when they flare up, and most importantly closing the borders.

For anything else short of that, you can drive down cases (in large part from people freaking out on their own, though govt policies can push up the freakout) but they are inevitably going to go back up again because (as I said from the beginning) people can't do this a year+.  It's just not realisitic.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> OZ and NZ have the control system that you were advocating at the beginning of this....remember all the hoopla about test and trace?  But it required driving cases to as close to zero as possible, stamping out any new fires when they flare up, and most importantly closing the borders.
> 
> For anything else short of that, you can drive down cases (in large part from people freaking out on their own, though govt policies can push up the freakout) but they are inevitably going to go back up again because (as I said from the beginning) people can't do this a year+.  It's just not realisitic.


You can model an open border system.  The key variable is the number of crossings per day.  (And daily per capita infection rate overseas.)

Total cases from illegal border crossings are not big enough to mess up your basic calculations.

The bigger problems are legal crossings and domestic air travel.  Those _are_ big enough to change your numbers.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You can model an open border system.  The key variable is the number of crossings per day.  (And daily per capita infection rate overseas.)
> 
> Total cases from illegal border crossings are not big enough to mess up your basic calculations.
> 
> The bigger problems are legal crossings and domestic air travel.  Those _are_ big enough to change your numbers.


Agree air and legal crossings a bigger problem. But this shows a lack of understanding of the q1a situation:  the key approach in the China/oz/nz is to smother any seed before it becomes a problem. If you have a border that’s open (don’t care if it’s ground or air or legal or illegal) you can’t do the q1a approach.  Too many new seeds since it only takes 1 to get away from you.   The proof of that gone wrong is Hawaii which almost was able to do q1a but a few quaratine breaches and a few exemptions (for airline personnel) gone wrong and they got the worst of both worlds. To implement q1a, would have needed stronger border and air restrictions than even trump allowed


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Agree air and legal crossings a bigger problem. But this shows a lack of understanding of the q1a situation:  the key approach in the China/oz/nz is to smother any seed before it becomes a problem. If you have a border that’s open (don’t care if it’s ground or air or legal or illegal) you can’t do the q1a approach.  Too many new seeds since it only takes 1 to get away from you.   The proof of that gone wrong is Hawaii which almost was able to do q1a but a few quaratine breaches and a few exemptions (for airline personnel) gone wrong and they got the worst of both worlds. To implement q1a, would have needed stronger border and air restrictions than even trump allowed


All of that sounds good.

Now make it numeric.  How many daily new cases is the US, and how many are from border crossings?

Until border crossings are a sizable fraction of total cases, the seeds argument is bogus.  

Travel should be limited, but until domestic cases are lower, there is nothing special about border crossings.  It's bad idea for 1M of us to get on a plane each day.   It doesn't really matter whether we fly to Detroit or Cabo.  We should not be flying.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> All of that sounds good.
> 
> Now make it numeric.  How many daily new cases is the US, and how many are from border crossings?
> 
> ...


What you argue is not feasible. You may as well sit and figure out how many angels can dance on the head of a needle. 

What the lock downers don't realize is that in the real world we are not going to shut everything down, close the border, pretend masks work, etc. 

We have a vaccine. Use it. We will get variations every year. What we are not going to do is social distance for years, wear masks for years, etc. 

Like any other disease, etc., we are just going to learn how to deal with having it among us.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> What you argue is not feasible. You may as well sit and figure out how many angels can dance on the head of a needle.
> 
> What the lock downers don't realize is that in the real world we are not going to shut everything down, close the border, pretend masks work, etc.
> 
> ...


So, rules will fail when too many people refuse to obey them?

True.  

Put it another way.  We had a half million deaths because some people refused to follow basic health advice.  

It means the same thing.  The rule failed when too many people decided they didn't have to follow it.  

Those same people are still making excuses about why they shouldn't have to follow the public health advice.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> All of that sounds good.
> 
> Now make it numeric.  How many daily new cases is the US, and how many are from border crossings?
> 
> ...


Again, you aren't understanding.  You are still in Q1b which hasn't worked anywhere...you reduce it, it goes up against because 20 year old Dangie Bro can't go a year without getting some.  OZ/NZ/China aim for zero seeds.  Zero.  And if 1 seed does get by to clamp down into a 1/2/3 line of defense (the 3rd being regional lockdowns) til you get it back down to as close to zero again as possible.  It's a very different approach than anything being a "sizable fraction of total cases" which is Q1b, not Q1a. The other components of Q1a is hard lockdown until cases get to zero and test and trace so you have the mechanism to find the seeds.  I agree, it's hard to see the US ever having gotten down there once the NY outbreak took place, and especially not once the protests (whether lockdown or BLM) started.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, rules will fail when too many people refuse to obey them?
> 
> True.
> 
> ...


Another fallacy.  Short of Q1a, with Q1b a portion of that 1/2 million was always going to be baked in.  We are only arguing about the remainder (the benefit) v. the cost it would take down to lower that remainder.  But without Q1a, it's not 0, which makes your statement just rhetoric.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Agree air and legal crossings a bigger problem. But this shows a lack of understanding of the q1a situation:  the key approach in the China/oz/nz is to smother any seed before it becomes a problem. If you have a border that’s open (don’t care if it’s ground or air or legal or illegal) you can’t do the q1a approach.  Too many new seeds since it only takes 1 to get away from you.   The proof of that gone wrong is Hawaii which almost was able to do q1a but a few quaratine breaches and a few exemptions (for airline personnel) gone wrong and they got the worst of both worlds. To implement q1a, would have needed stronger border and air restrictions than even trump allowed


I won't argue against a domestic travel ban during a pandemic.   We should do it next time, early.  No more letting rich New Yorkers infect the whole country by fleeing to their vacation homes.

A little late, now.  Might be only 2-4 months left.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I won't argue against a domestic travel ban during a pandemic.   We should do it next time, early.  No more letting rich New Yorkers infect the whole country by fleeing to their vacation homes.
> 
> A little late, now.  Might be only 2-4 months left.


Again you are misunderstanding.  OZ/NZ worked because of the system taken as a whole.  Less severe than China (e.g. welding people in their homes/forced testing up your butt...yeah I know I'm exaggerating just a little), but you can't take a whole lot more out of the system without having it not work.  If it doesn't work, you become Hawaii.  You are then in Q1b which the best case scenario (if you have a population as conscientious as them and willing to go along with it), is S Korea flat at 500 cases per day.  You can't just take 1 thing and say "oh it worked in Australia"....Australia worked because of the entire system (a system which here violates both D and R sacred cows, as well as the US Constitution in at least 1 and probably a lot more instances)


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

Here's a question.  Not sure how I feel about this myself.  Probably not politically feasible due to the 1/4 of the country which is severely panicked and would want to put America first  But they announced today that 12-16 years olds likely to be vaccinated in summer by some vaccines.  Given how low the death rate is for that group, is that morally justifiable when there are countries (including those leading to the current immigration situation at the border) where 80+ year olds have not been vaccinated.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Another fallacy.  Short of Q1a, with Q1b a portion of that 1/2 million was always going to be baked in.  We are only arguing about the remainder (the benefit) v. the cost it would take down to lower that remainder.  But without Q1a, it's not 0, which makes your statement just rhetoric.


All words. No numbers.

There is a non-linearity in a logistics curve.  A 10% change in transmissibility does not mean a 10% change in cases/deaths.

For R0= 3,  a 50% reduction to transmission still leaves you with 110M expected cases.  A 70% reduction leaves you with less than 1 million.

This is why it's so frustrating to watch all these half measures.  We repeatedly go through 70% of the pain to reap 20% of the benefit. Then we relax, suffer a wave, and do it all over again.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Put it another way. We had a half million deaths because some people refused to follow basic health advice.


No we would have had a ton of deaths no matter what. That is the part you keep missing. 

The overwhelming majority of the spread happened in households per what the research says. . People have to work to live, so they are out and about mingling. 

We were never going to stop the spread.

I know you like to pretend otherwise and also pretend any failure is due to people not following the rules. 

Take mask compliance. It has been very high everywhere. However watch people with masks on. The vast majority move them around, lower them to talk, touch them, re use them, etc, etc. They are not getting any benefit from wearing them other than virtual signaling to you and others that hey at least I am wearing a mask. 

We have people traveling around their state/country. We have people traveling internationally. Etc etc. 

We were/are not stopping the virus. Look around the world. It is everywhere.


----------



## watfly (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Here's a question.  Not sure how I feel about this myself.  Probably not politically feasible due to the 1/4 of the country which is severely panicked and would want to put America first  But they announced today that 12-16 years olds likely to be vaccinated in summer by some vaccines.  Given how low the death rate is for that group, is that morally justifiable when there are countries (including those leading to the current immigration situation at the border) where 80+ year olds have not been vaccinated.


I think it would be a noble gesture and I would have no problem even though I lean America first.  I certainly would reserve a portion for those U16's that may be more vulnerable due to health conditions.  Were providing in-person education in SD to non-citizens that have only been in our country a few days before providing the same to our life long citizen children.   It wouldn't be such a stretch to share our vaccines with those that are more in need.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> No we would have had a ton of deaths no matter what. That is the part you keep missing.
> 
> The overwhelming majority of the spread happened in households per what the research says. . People have to work to live, so they are out and about mingling.
> 
> ...


If you can't accept the CDC data on masks, restaurants, bars, and so on, then it is impossible to have a rational discussion.

It's as though you are insisting that 2+2=5, and getting mad at me when I suggest it is 4.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> I think it would be a noble gesture and I would have no problem even though I lean America first.  I certainly would reserve a portion for those U16's that may be more vulnerable due to health conditions.  Were providing in-person education in SD to non-citizens that have only been in our country a few days before providing the same to our life long citizen children.   It wouldn't be such a stretch to share our vaccines with those that are more in need.


Oh Watfly, get out of here with that commonsense!


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> All words. No numbers.
> 
> There is a non-linearity in a logistics curve.  A 10% change in transmissibility does not mean a 10% change in cases/deaths.
> 
> ...


No ones done it via q1b. No one.   Not even South Korea Germany or Japan. Only q1a.

it’s because the measures you want are only sustainable for a few weeks. So they only work in a q1a situation.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No ones done it via q1b. No one.   Not even South Korea Germany or Japan. Only q1a.
> 
> it’s because the measures you want are only sustainable for a few weeks. So they only work in a q1a situation.


You’re telling me it is unsustainable when I’ve been doing most of it for 12 months and counting.....

Not sure what your distinction is between Q1a and Q1b.  I reread your definitions and they still don’t make sense.

My thought is similar to the original Merkel approach.  Keep R below 1.  As you get better data, change your rules to refocus on what works.  But keep R below 1.  I think I originally called it Q2 if you go back a page.

For most of the country, I think this means masks, indoor dining, bars, theaters, churches, casinos, and zoom for office jobs. 

Add some restrictions if it is winter or you are in a major city like LA.  Subtract some restrictions to the extent you are vaccinated.  But keep R below 1.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re telling me it is unsustainable when I’ve been doing most of it for 12 months and counting


For starters you have a job that allows you to work remotely. 

Most don't/can't.

Second.. based on your posts over the past yr sitting at home seems right in your wheelhouse.




dad4 said:


> For most of the country, I think this means masks, indoor dining, bars,


On this you are consistent. Screw these businesses and their employees.

I can pretty much guarantee that if you had spent your life and money building a bar biz...you wouldn't be sitting here saying...hey I can close for a yr. It wouldn't be sustainable for you.

And that gets back to your problem. You don't understand real world data very well. Cost / benefit seems beyond you.

Try staying at home for a yr if you own a bar, restaurant, or whatever else you want to see closed. Please.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> For starters you have a job that allows you to work remotely.
> 
> Most don't/can't.
> 
> ...


That, at least, is the beginning of an honest discussion.

If you do not close the bars, people die.

If you do close the bars, even more people are out of work and can't pay for food or rent.

So what do you do?

Have the feds borrow money to pay waitress salaries for as long as this goes on?  Build public works projects like FDR?  Open it all and let a million older people die?  Close it all and watch 10 million people go bankrupt?

A list of bad options.  

But it is the right question.  And far better than lying to ourselves about what the options are.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re telling me it is unsustainable when I’ve been doing most of it for 12 months and counting.....
> 
> Not sure what your distinction is between Q1a and Q1b.  I reread your definitions and they still don’t make sense.
> 
> ...


1. You are working from home
2. You are a self confessed introvert that can’t comprehend the damage this does to the es
3. You are mid age with an established family (presumably with a lower libido and/or a person to share with)
4. You are very risk adverse. Not everyone is
5 You are a freak (not a slam...I am too).  Not even my vulnerable folks were as regimented as you
6. You work in education so why aren’t you vaccinated?  Or are you and still keeping it up in which case you aren’t just freaky but super human freaky


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That, at least, is the beginning of an honest discussion.
> 
> If you do not close the bars, people die.
> 
> ...


You’ve been lying to yourself that short of q1a you can control the thing. What’s worse is you don’t have a comprehension of the difference between q1a and q2b which is why you fail


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 1. You are working from home
> 2. You are a self confessed introvert that can’t comprehend the damage this does to the es
> 3. You are mid age with an established family (presumably with a lower libido and/or a person to share with)
> 4. You are very risk adverse. Not everyone is
> ...


7. I forgot about the tournament thing to. So but for circumstance even you did not live up to this standard for a year


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You’ve been lying to yourself that short of q1a you can control the thing. What’s worse is you don’t have a comprehension of the difference between q1a and q2b which is why you fail


You blame *me* when *you* fail to define your terms clearly?

I advocate for R<1.   If you want to define some other standard, it's up to *you* to define it clearly.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You blame *me* when *you* fail to define your terms clearly?
> 
> I advocate for R<1.   If you want to define some other standard, it's up to *you* to define it clearly.


I did several times. Its not a standard. It’s 2 different approaches.   One is to drive r near 0, prevent any seeds from seeding, but if they do drive it down again before there’s a problem. The other is to drive down r<1 (but without the comprehensive no tolerance approach of oz nz). That approach has failed everywhere and the best result is South Korea plateaued at 500 cases per day. Your approach is fantasyland because it can’t be sustained by normal people more than a few weeks


----------



## dad4 (Apr 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I did several times. Its not a standard. It’s 2 different approaches.   One is to drive r near 0, prevent any seeds from seeding, but if they do drive it down again before there’s a problem. The other is to drive down r<1 (but without the comprehensive no tolerance approach of oz nz). That approach has failed everywhere and the best result is South Korea plateaued at 500 cases per day. Your approach is fantasyland because it can’t be sustained by normal people more than a few weeks


No one is actually driving R near zero.  

R=0.5 would imply that domestic transmission equals total imported cases.  For example, you had 100 cases in the fall.  50 got it at home, 50 got it overseas.

R=0.1 would imply that you have only one domestic case for every ten imported cases.

You are saying near zero.  So, the vast majority of cases are known to have gotten sick overseas.  Does anywhere have that kind of profile?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> All words. No numbers.
> 
> There is a non-linearity in a logistics curve.  A 10% change in transmissibility does not mean a 10% change in cases/deaths.
> 
> ...


Ignoring history is what frustrates you.  You’re ignoring the numbers too.


----------



## crush (Apr 2, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Ignoring history is what frustrates you.  You’re ignoring the numbers too.


Dad is not really a dad, trust me.  He works under cover for you know WHO.  This man is either a fool or being fooled or trying to fool you.  What kind of fool are we dealing with?


----------



## crush (Apr 2, 2021)

A prayer for Dad 4 the fool


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No one is actually driving R near zero.
> 
> R=0.5 would imply that domestic transmission equals total imported cases.  For example, you had 100 cases in the fall.  50 got it at home, 50 got it overseas.
> 
> ...


New Zealand had 2 cases yesterday.  It has some days had zero. I think the record recently was 11 due to the hotel outbreak started overseas that kicking cited. Very different than South Korea which is at 500


----------



## crush (Apr 2, 2021)

*Don’t freak out if you get these side effects from a Covid-19 vaccine. They can actually be a good sign*


----------



## dad4 (Apr 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> New Zealand had 2 cases yesterday.  It has some days had zero. I think the record recently was 11 due to the hotel outbreak started overseas that kicking cited. Very different than South Korea which is at 500


If SK is hovering at 500, then they have R=1.  

NZ has R <1, but nowhere close to R=0.  They have occasional seeds, most of which cause no more than 1 or 2 cases.  A few cause a mini-outbreak before they are put out.  Might be R=0.8?  

If you look at US, very few places ever got much above R=1.3.  

The difference in effort between R=1.3 and R=0.9 is large, but not huge.  You need to find a way to stop about 1/4 of the transmissions that remain.  That is all.  

That’s why I think moderate measures, if enforced, would be enough.  An additional 25% reduction in transmission doesn’t sound impossible.  

You just can’t be colossally stupid like Michigan is right now.  They had things under control, R=0.87 on Feb 02.  So they opened up indoor dining just as b.1.1.7 started to grow.  And now they have R=1.6, despite the last 2 months of vaccinations.

That’s not inevitability.  That’s just stupid policy.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If SK is hovering at 500, then they have R=1.
> 
> NZ has R <1, but nowhere close to R=0.  They have occasional seeds, most of which cause no more than 1 or 2 cases.  A few cause a mini-outbreak before they are put out.  Might be R=0.8?
> 
> ...


The issue boils down again to it not being sustainable.  Again, the 20 year old unmarried guy who isn't going to go a whole year without.  The reason OZ/NZ worked is because they drove down the numbers, prevented new seeds from sprouting, but if 1 got through drove down the numbers again.  They aren't in perpetual lockdown (even though the borders are shut like a fortress) so people can periodically relax which is what makes the whole thing tolerable and why they haven't had a mass insurrection despite having a very strong Trumpian-like movement over there themselves in Australia.  The fallacy here is that you think this was possible for a year+...it's not, which is why no one has been able to do it, not even the politicians and health experts most in the know and not even yourself who is preaching this.


----------



## watfly (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s not inevitability.  That’s just stupid policy.


Based on your perspective.  I don't stand in your shoes, nor do you stand in mine.

I'm perfectly happy with how I responded to the pandemic.  In hindsight, I wouldn't be any more, or less cautious than I actually was. I feel like our family maintained a good balance.  I assume your happy with your approach and felt it was the best decision for you family.

At the end of the day we both achieved the same results in terms of Covid.   We both made the decisions that we felt were best for our family.   Why can't we all just leave it that.  However, you continue to call normal behaviors of others as stupid or idiotic.  Why do you still feel so compelled to tell people how to live their lives?  Have any of us from so called " team virus" told you how to live your life?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The issue boils down again to it not being sustainable.  Again, the 20 year old unmarried guy who isn't going to go a whole year without.  The reason OZ/NZ worked is because they drove down the numbers, prevented new seeds from sprouting, but if 1 got through drove down the numbers again.  They aren't in perpetual lockdown (even though the borders are shut like a fortress) so people can periodically relax which is what makes the whole thing tolerable and why they haven't had a mass insurrection despite having a very strong Trumpian-like movement over there themselves in Australia.  The fallacy here is that you think this was possible for a year+...it's not, which is why no one has been able to do it, not even the politicians and health experts most in the know and not even yourself who is preaching this.


The problem was never the 20 year old single guy wanting to go on a date.  We shut him down because he is young and he doesn’t vote.  But an indoor gathering of two people is not big enough to worry about.  Besides, nine times out of ten, he will want to be in the same woman’s bed again the next night.  It’s not much of a transmission vector if he doesn’t want to leave.

The problem is the large indoor gatherings.   The kegger in the basement with 50 people.  The casino full of 50-70 year olds.  The Thanksgiving dinner held inside.  The indoor restaurant with 20 different households represented each night.  The stay and pay tournament.  Most of the country wasn’t, and isn’t, willing to give up that.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The problem was never the 20 year old single guy wanting to go on a date.  We shut him down because he is young and he doesn’t vote.  But an indoor gathering of two people is not big enough to worry about.  Besides, nine times out of ten, he will want to be in the same woman’s bed again the next night.  It’s not much of a transmission vector if he doesn’t want to leave.
> 
> The problem is the large indoor gatherings.   The kegger in the basement with 50 people.  The casino full of 50-70 year olds.  The Thanksgiving dinner held inside.  The indoor restaurant with 20 different households represented each night.  The stay and pay tournament.  Most of the country wasn’t, and isn’t, willing to give up that.


a. Neither were you.
b. You have a policing problem then because even the Karens can't distinguish between a 2 person gathering and a family of 8 gathering.   It's 2 cars in the driveway.
c.  It's not sustainable more than a few months.
d.  If your policy is something that no one (not even you) wants to give up, then it's not a policy....it's a fantasy.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a. Neither were you.
> b. You have a policing problem then because even the Karens can't distinguish between a 2 person gathering and a family of 8 gathering.   It's 2 cars in the driveway.
> c.  It's not sustainable more than a few months.
> d.  If your policy is something that no one (not even you) wants to give up, then it's not a policy....it's a fantasy.


Me? 

I spent about 12 hours in a hotel over the last 13 months.  The rest of the time I have been at home, outside, or masked.  If I am with other people, I am outside and masked.   

That level of compliance would be fine.  Not perfect, but good enough to drive R below 1.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Me?
> 
> I spent about 12 hours in a hotel over the last 13 months.  The rest of the time I have been at home, outside, or masked.  If I am with other people, I am outside and masked.
> 
> That level of compliance would be fine.  Not perfect, but good enough to drive R below 1.


You carved out a personal exception for yourself for a tournament (which in the end got cancelled?).  You also work from home.  You are middle aged (so not exactly used to partying), presumably married (so have someone to share your needs), introverted, and risk adverse.

You can't have lockdown by veto.  Something's important for everyone.  For you its a tournament, for someone else it's a business built over a life time.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, rules will fail when too many people refuse to obey them?
> 
> True.
> 
> ...


Like the ones that keep arguing they know better than the experts? The 80’s were known as the “Me generation” that generations indulgences and selfish attitudes pale in comparison to this generation of “FUCK OFF AND DIE IT’S ABOUT ME! ME! ME!”. Instant gratification and short term gains are the law for many these days.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you can't accept the CDC data on masks, restaurants, bars, and so on, then it is impossible to have a rational discussion.
> 
> It's as though you are insisting that 2+2=5, and getting mad at me when I suggest it is 4.


Bitches gonna bitch


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Like the ones that keep arguing they know better than the experts? The 80’s were known as the “Me generation” that generations indulgences and selfish attitudes pale in comparison to this generation of “FUCK OFF AND DIE IT’S ABOUT ME! ME! ME!”. Instant gratification and short term gains are the law for many these days.


Why you mad?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Bitches gonna bitch


Like your previous post.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 2, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Why you mad?


Over a half million people are dead because 20% of the country decided that they knew better than thousands of PhDs.

It kind of makes people angry to think about it....


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Over a half million people are dead because 20% of the country decided that they knew better than thousands of PhDs.
> 
> It kind of makes people angry to think about it....


I saw that in your Pissed values and the circle jerk of a thousand PhDip shits.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Over a half million people are dead because 20% of the country decided that they knew better than thousands of PhDs.
> 
> It kind of makes people angry to think about it


You claim to be a math guy and then make (again) unfounded claims like that.

You are a true believer. Despite real world evidence shredding your preferred solutions.. you carry on. 

Not much different from trying to talk to the very religious.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You claim to be a math guy and then make (again) unfounded claims like that.
> 
> You are a true believer. Despite real world evidence shredding your preferred solutions.. you carry on.
> 
> Not much different from trying to talk to the very religious.


Both are cowards


----------



## dad4 (Apr 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You claim to be a math guy and then make (again) unfounded claims like that.
> 
> You are a true believer. Despite real world evidence shredding your preferred solutions.. you carry on.
> 
> Not much different from trying to talk to the very religious.


Deborah Birx said much the same thing.

I’ll give you the Fox version, since you won’t believe it if it comes from NYT or WaPo.









						Dr. Deborah Birx says most US COVID-19 deaths could have been avoided or ‘decreased substantially’
					

Former Trump administration White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said in an interview that coronavirus deaths in the U.S. following the initial first wave could have been “decreased substantially” or avoided entirely.




					www.fox2detroit.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Deborah Birx said much the same thing.
> 
> I’ll give you the Fox version, since you won’t believe it if it comes from NYT or WaPo.
> 
> ...


I thought you said epidemiology wasn't about predictions? Should I give this as much credence as Osterholm's Armageddon prediction? He's got about 5 weeks remaining (quote published Jan 31).

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, *which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,*” Osterholm said.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I thought you said epidemiology wasn't about predictions? Should I give this as much credence as Osterholm's Armageddon prediction? He's got about 5 weeks remaining (quote published Jan 31).
> 
> “The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, *which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,*” Osterholm said.


Epidemiology is all about predictions.  Osterholm made a bad one.  Other people made good predictions.

The other issue is behavior.  Even with the UK variant, we should be seeing declining cases.   There is no good reason we should have increasing cases and a 30% vaccination rate.   

That’s why I predicted that CA would hover at the red/purple boundary.  Whenever cases began to get low, we’d open restaurants and our dinners would nudge cases back up.  Which we did.  The state is currently at 7 daily cases per 100K, and level.  

Had we been willing to keep doing what we did in January/February, cases would still be dropping by 50% every 2 weeks.  We’d be at about 700 cases per day statewide, and ready to think about how to play whack-a-mole like South Korea.

But, apparently we like restaurants, bars, and gyms more than we hate covid.  So covid gets to hang out with us a few months more.  Hope the tiramisu was good.


----------



## crush (Apr 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Epidemiology is all about predictions.  Osterholm made a bad one.  Other people made good predictions.
> 
> The other issue is behavior.  Even with the UK variant, we should be seeing declining cases.   There is no good reason we should have increasing cases and a 30% vaccination rate.
> 
> ...


Dad 4, do you see what I see or are you still stuck on fake numbers & lies?  I now see how blind you are and brainwashed to boot.  I will think happy thoughts for you and twin EOTL.


----------



## crush (Apr 3, 2021)




----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Epidemiology is all about predictions.  Osterholm made a bad one.  Other people made good predictions.
> 
> The other issue is behavior.  Even with the UK variant, we should be seeing declining cases.   There is no good reason we should have increasing cases and a 30% vaccination rate.
> 
> ...


I think what's more likely is that restaurant owners like restaurants, bar owners like bars, etc. As to be expected, as that is their livelihood. We have friends whose family business is closing after 17 years- they were a family owned, very popular restaurant. As you can imagine, covid had killed them. Their lease was up on their building, (double whammy,) and the building owner would not agree to any of their terms (after 17 years mind you,) and leased it out from under them to a large restaurant chain. I understand the need to keep people healthy and covid free- but seriously, what do we do to help these poor business owners??? It's just so awful.


----------



## crush (Apr 3, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I think what's more likely is that restaurant owners like restaurants, bar owners like bars, etc. As to be expected, as that is their livelihood. We have friends whose family business is closing after 17 years- they were a family owned, very popular restaurant. As you can imagine, covid had killed them. Their lease was up on their building, (double whammy,) and the building owner would not agree to any of their terms (after 17 years mind you,) and leased it out from under them to a large restaurant chain. I understand the need to keep people healthy and covid free- but seriously, what do we do to help these poor business owners??? It's just so awful.


They ((fill in the blank)) dont give a sh^t about small business owners and those who think on their own.  Dreamers?  For get it.  Most small business owners left corporate way back in the day and most told those corporate cheaters to "F" off.  Now big corp & big tech asses are looking to land the final blow?  The losers WHO started this because they lost in 2016 are the real losers.  When real losers lose, they cheat so they win and then they can have all power & control.  They will use any means necessary to win too, even lie, kill and yes, get all the colors to hate each other.  Oh, they love war and death and darkness.  Their time is up though so no one should fret.  Just go with the Light & truth and you will be declared a winner and will receive big reward.  Go with lying and cheating and bad karma will nail your ass.


----------



## crush (Apr 3, 2021)

MLB is the last stand to divide our country?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 3, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I think what's more likely is that restaurant owners like restaurants, bar owners like bars, etc. As to be expected, as that is their livelihood. We have friends whose family business is closing after 17 years- they were a family owned, very popular restaurant. As you can imagine, covid had killed them. Their lease was up on their building, (double whammy,) and the building owner would not agree to any of their terms (after 17 years mind you,) and leased it out from under them to a large restaurant chain. I understand the need to keep people healthy and covid free- but seriously, what do we do to help these poor business owners??? It's just so awful.


You got me and hound to agree.  

It's a hard problem.  Add in the hairdressers, coffee shops, bookstores, bakeries, and the rest of the little businesses that people seek out when they choose where they want to live.  Most of them are in trouble.

We do weekly takeout from local restaurants.  No chains.  The chains can fend for themselves.   I can't justify dine in until we're all vaccinated.  But I figure if the bill is the same it ought to help.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Epidemiology is all about predictions.  Osterholm made a bad one.  Other people made good predictions.
> 
> The other issue is behavior.  Even with the UK variant, we should be seeing declining cases.   There is no good reason we should have increasing cases and a 30% vaccination rate.
> 
> ...


Yeah, "a bad one". He selected 6-14 weeks into the future of a pandemic that had been going on for over 10 months and, wow, he couldn't have been more wrong - so far. He still has 5 weeks.

I get it now. Good predictions are ones that can never be proven wrong, like Birx's. Ones like Osterholm's, you know, actual predictions about the future instead of a past re-written, will be correct about as often as stock predictions. That Birx is a smart epidemiologist.


----------



## crush (Apr 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Yeah, "a bad one". He selected 6-14 weeks into the future of a pandemic that had been going on for over 10 months and, wow, he couldn't have been more wrong - so far. He still has 5 weeks.
> 
> *I get it now. *Good predictions are ones that can never be proven wrong, like Birx's. Ones like Osterholm's, you know, actual predictions about the future instead of a past re-written, will be correct about as often as stock predictions. That Birx is a smart epidemiologist.


Well, it's about dam time bro.  We need your voice big time, trust me


----------



## dad4 (Apr 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Yeah, "a bad one". He selected 6-14 weeks into the future of a pandemic that had been going on for over 10 months and, wow, he couldn't have been more wrong - so far. He still has 5 weeks.
> 
> I get it now. Good predictions are ones that can never be proven wrong, like Birx's. Ones like Osterholm's, you know, actual predictions about the future instead of a past re-written, will be correct about as often as stock predictions. That Birx is a smart epidemiologist.


Osterholm’s prediction was a media prediction, exaggerated to scare people into acting sensibly.

They apparently didn't learn from the whole "masks don't work for commoners" fiasco.

His comments were not helpful.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 3, 2021)

crush said:


> Well, it's about dam time bro.  We need your voice big time, trust me


There is a lot of uncertainty in the predictions from the epidemiologists - as we continue to see. They should be part of the policy-making process, but I don't want them to be driving policy. They are too specialized and lack a broader perspective necessary for wise policy decisions - which is common among specialists. They appear to be too in love with the mathematics of their specialty and out of touch with how the general population will react to the policy put forward. That requires real leadership and we have had a lack of it on every level. Consider how the following leadership traits presented themselves during the pandemic.

Honesty? Nope, not from the beginning on any level. As I am typing this @dad4 posts, yet again. about scaring people straight. No wonder people don't have any respect for these people and their pronouncements.

Leading by example? Hahaha! Please.

Follow the new knowledge? Not if it might affect future campaign contributions.

If leaders on the local level would actually engage their constituents and work with them on ideas to protect the vulnerable, keep businesses open and protect the mental health of children, they actually might have had considerably more success than their method of pushing down sweeping, inflexible and often arbitrary mandates.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> There is a lot of uncertainty in the predictions from the epidemiologists - as we continue to see. They should be part of the policy-making process, but I don't want them to be driving policy. They are too specialized and lack a broader perspective necessary for wise policy decisions - which is common among specialists. They appear to be too in love with the mathematics of their specialty and out of touch with how the general population will react to the policy put forward. That requires real leadership and we have had a lack of it on every level. Consider how the following leadership traits presented themselves during the pandemic.
> 
> Honesty? Nope, not from the beginning on any level. As I am typing this @dad4 posts, yet again. about scaring people straight. No wonder people don't have any respect for these people and their pronouncements.
> 
> ...


My comment about Osterholm trying to scare people was NOT praise.  His comments discredit the entire field for nothing more than a short term gain.

That said, you wouldn’t like honest leadership on this.  You want to protect the vulnerable while keeping things open.  The very first thing an honest leader would have done is say that he cannot do both.   Within a month he’d be as popular as Walter Mondale.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 4, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I think what's more likely is that restaurant owners like restaurants, bar owners like bars, etc. As to be expected, as that is their livelihood. We have friends whose family business is closing after 17 years- they were a family owned, very popular restaurant. As you can imagine, covid had killed them. Their lease was up on their building, (double whammy,) and the building owner would not agree to any of their terms (after 17 years mind you,) and leased it out from under them to a large restaurant chain. I understand the need to keep people healthy and covid free- but seriously, what do we do to help these poor business owners??? It's just so awful.


No due diligence is not just awful for business owners.  It is tyranny.  It is an indictment of our education system.


----------



## crush (Apr 4, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> No due diligence is not just awful for business owners.  It is tyranny.  It is an indictment of our education system.


Killing small businesses one small business at a time.  I had a checker scold me the other day because I was on my phone talking with mask lower then mouth.  I was 6 feet away too.  These little liars trying to fool and control the masses with trickery and cheating.  This dude was at least 295, 5 8'.  I was shocked at his attitude.  I said sorry and kept what I wanted to say inside this time.  Another lady checker was saying how awesome Jeff B is and how he's changing the world.  Those WHO have the controls right now are saying, "STFU, wash your hands, wear a dam mask, STFU some more.  Oh, and get the double shot of bat shit and continue to wear the dam mask and continue to STFU.  If you obey, things will go back to normal some day when they decide normal is ready."  WAFCATI!!!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 5, 2021)

Cases in Spain have begun to rise again despite restrictions (including Easter travel restrictions) still being in place, though the population has been more defiant of the restrictions than say last spring.   This despite a very high seroprevalence at least on par with Los Angeles and New York in some areas.  Leaves only a handful of countries like Portugal untouched in Europe by current wave


----------



## watfly (Apr 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> There is a lot of uncertainty in the predictions from the epidemiologists - as we continue to see. They should be part of the policy-making process, but I don't want them to be driving policy. They are too specialized and lack a broader perspective necessary for wise policy decisions - which is common among specialists. They appear to be too in love with the mathematics of their specialty and out of touch with how the general population will react to the policy put forward. That requires real leadership and we have had a lack of it on every level. Consider how the following leadership traits presented themselves during the pandemic.
> 
> Honesty? Nope, not from the beginning on any level. As I am typing this @dad4 posts, yet again. about scaring people straight. No wonder people don't have any respect for these people and their pronouncements.
> 
> ...


Based on my experience, I see this in part as the difference in being "book smart" and "street smart".  In math class 2+2 always equals 4.  Dad4 is partially right that "team virus" believes 2+2=5. While it might not equal 5, in the real world 2+2 doesn't always equal 4 because of unseen or uncontrollable variables and or risk factors that impact the equation.  Life is not a solvable equation nor is the problem always quantifiable, which is difficult for those that live in an *"academic bubble"* to understand.  This is why with Covid I trusted the opinions of doctors that were actually treating patients over the lab results from an epidemiologist.  Real life is more art than science.  In an academic or research setting you basically have all the data and have to analyze and synthesize it to reach an opinion.  In the business world you rarely have all the data to make a quantifiable decision but instead rely on some data, some gut and some experience.  You have to fill in the missing data with subjective estimates.  There is a higher sense of accuracy with scientists because their profession is more exacting (2+2=4) and guesstimates aren't tolerated.   However, that's a false sense of accuracy because scientists can't account for all the variables in the real world, many of which are quantifiable.


----------



## watfly (Apr 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> Based on my experience, I see this in part as the difference in being "book smart" and "street smart".  In math class 2+2 always equals 4.  Dad4 is partially right that "team virus" believes 2+2=5. While it might not equal 5, in the real world 2+2 doesn't always equal 4 because of unseen or uncontrollable variables and or risk factors that impact the equation.  Life is not a solvable equation nor is the problem always quantifiable, which is difficult for those that live in an "academic bubble" to understand.  This is why with Covid I trusted the opinions of doctors that were actually treating patients over the lab results from an epidemiologist.  Real life is more art than science.  In an academic or research setting you basically have all the data and have to analyze and synthesize it to reach an opinion.  In the business world you rarely have all the data to make a quantifiable decision but instead rely on some data, some gut and some experience.  You have to fill in the missing data with subjective estimates.  There is a higher sense of accuracy with scientists because their profession is more exacting (2+2=4) and guesstimates aren't tolerated.   However, that's a false sense of accuracy because scientists can't account for all the variables in the real world, many of which *are quantifiable*.


are not quantifiable.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 5, 2021)

Another 2 year old mask incident.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379114952208814083


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 5, 2021)

Michigan seems to be accelerating still though deaths not as much









						Michigan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Michigan COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




Canada looking not great









						Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




Texas cases still dropping.  Florida is flat but with deaths still dropping.









						Florida COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Florida COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				











						Texas COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Texas COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## watfly (Apr 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Another 2 year old mask incident.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379114952208814083


WTF is wrong with that flight attendant, kudos to the passengers for standing up for the family.


----------



## watfly (Apr 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Texas cases still dropping.


Plummeting actually.  Down 60% since full reopening on March 2.  Not proof that masks aren't effective, but seems to support the idea that mandates don't work.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> Plummeting actually.  Down 60% since full reopening on March 2.  Not proof that masks aren't effective, but seems to support the idea that mandates don't work.


Remember what the experts claimed would happen when TX announced it.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Remember what the experts claimed would happen when TX announced it.


Experts?  That was you.  You keep putting words in other people's mouths, then claiming they were wrong.


----------



## watfly (Apr 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Experts?  That was you.  You keep putting words in other people's mouths, then claiming they were wrong.


_Dr. Irwin Redlener, a pediatrician who is head of the Columbia University National Center for Disaster Preparedness, said he was “mortified and disgusted” by the Texas move, which he called “completely reckless.”_


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Experts?  That was you.  You keep putting words in other people's mouths, then claiming they were wrong.


The trumpy, QAnon types are busy little trolls cooking up all kinds of outrage to react to. Some people just like drama. So much so they’ll fabricate their own.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> My comment about Osterholm trying to scare people was NOT praise.  His comments discredit the entire field for nothing more than a short term gain.
> 
> That said, you wouldn’t like honest leadership on this.  You want to protect the vulnerable while keeping things open.  The very first thing an honest leader would have done is say that he cannot do both.   Within a month he’d be as popular as Walter Mondale.


You are wrong. I have no illusions about the compromises that would have to be made. Honesty and integrity would go a long way for me. If we continue to put people in leadership positions and keep them there when they demonstrate that they lack honesty and integrity, we get what we deserve.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> 8 weeks into the 6-14 week range for Osterholm's Armageddon ("OA"). Cases are rising overall - driven by the northeast and upper midwest. Hospitalizations are flat with deaths still decreasing, but showing some flattening. Not great news overall, but definitely not anything close to OA yet. We have 6 more weeks to see if he knew what he was talking about and see if he should take the advice @dad4 and realize this is biology and not physics so he should stay out of the prediction business.
> 
> “*The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.*
> 
> ...


Over 9 weeks in - less than 5 weeks for Osterholm's (he's a famous, well-respected epidemiologist who has given counsel to our president) prediction. Fortunately for everyone, it's not looking good for him.


----------



## watfly (Apr 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The trumpy, QAnon types are busy little trolls cooking up all kinds of outrage to react to. Some people just like drama. So much so they’ll fabricate their own.


You have big shoes to fill with EOTL gone,  Good luck.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Experts?  That was you.  You keep putting words in other people's mouths, then claiming they were wrong.


I posted a long list of experts claiming this would be a disaster. Then the list had politicians saying the same thing.

You also were not happy.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Experts?  That was you.  You keep putting words in other people's mouths, then claiming they were wrong.


Here are a few examples of both experts, leaders and pundits all telling people to be afraid...be very afraid of TX re-opening.

So who is peddling disinformation and fear? 

The very same people saying lockdowns and masks work. Hint they don't. 


California Governor Gavin Newsom said that opening Texas was “absolutely reckless.”
Gregg Popovich, head coach of the NBA San Antonio Spurs, said opening was “ridiculous” and “ignorant.”
CNN quoted an *ICU nurse saying “*I’m scared of what this is going to look like.”
_Vanity Fair_ went over the top with this headline: “Republican Governors Celebrate COVID Anniversary With Bold Plan to Kill Another 500,000 Americans.”
*There was the inevitable Dr. Fauci:* “It just is inexplicable why you would want to pull back now.”
Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke of Texas revealed himself to be a full-blown lockdowner: It’s a “big mistake,” he said. “It’s hard to escape the conclusion that it’s also a cult of death.” He accused the governor of “sacrificing the lives of our fellow Texans … for political gain.”
*James Hamblin, a doctor and writer* for the _Atlantic_, said in a Tweet liked by 20K people: “Ending precautions now is like entering the last miles of a marathon and taking off your shoes and eating several hot dogs.”
Bestselling author Kurt Eichenwald flipped out: “Goddamn. Texas already has FIVE variants that have turned up: Britain, South Africa, Brazil, New York & CA. The NY and CA variants could weaken vaccine effectiveness. And now idiot @GregAbbott_TX throws open the state.” He further called the government “murderous.”
*Epidemiologist Whitney Robinson* wrote: “I feel genuinely sad. There are people who are going to get sick and die bc of avoidable infections they get in the next few weeks. It’s demoralizing.”
Pundit Bill Kristol (I had no idea that he was a lockdowner) wrote: “Gov. Abbott is going to be responsible for more avoidable COVID hospitalizations and deaths than all the undocumented immigrants coming across the Texas border put together.”
*Health pundit Bob Wachter* said the decision to open was “unforgivable.”
*Virus guru Michael Osterholm* told CNN: “We’re walking into the mouth of the monster. We simply are.”
Joe Biden famously said that the Texas decision to open reflected “Neanderthal thinking.”
Nutritionist Eric Feigl-Ding said that the decision makes him want to “vomit so bad.”
The chairman of the state’s Democratic Party said: “What Abbott is doing is extraordinarily dangerous. This will kill Texans. Our country’s infectious-disease specialists have warned that we should not put our guard down, even as we make progress towards vaccinations. Abbott doesn’t care.”
Other state Democrats said in a letter that the decision was “premature and harmful.”
*The CDC’s Rochelle Walensky* didn’t mince words: “Please hear me clearly: At this level of cases with variants spreading, we stand to completely lose the hard-earned ground we have gained. I am really worried about reports that more states are rolling back the exact public health measures we have recommended to protect people from COVID-19.”
*@dad4 thought it was a terrible idea to open up.*


----------



## happy9 (Apr 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The trumpy, QAnon types are busy little trolls cooking up all kinds of outrage to react to. Some people just like drama. So much so they’ll fabricate their own.


wait, what?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The trumpy, QAnon types are busy little trolls cooking up all kinds of outrage to react to. Some people just like drama. So much so they’ll fabricate their own.


Actually if you look at my post above with quotes from "experts", politicians and pundits, you will see who are cooking up outrage. Are you saying those people I quoted are QAnon types? Or do we just refer to trolling from the left as the tin hat brigade? What is your rank in that brigade?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Epidemiology is all about predictions.  Osterholm made a bad one.  Other people made good predictions.
> 
> The other issue is behavior.  Even with the UK variant, we should be seeing declining cases.   There is no good reason we should have increasing cases and a 30% vaccination rate.
> 
> ...


Virus's have always hung out with us silly.  But you smart people don't do history.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I posted a long list of experts claiming this would be a disaster. Then the list had politicians saying the same thing.
> 
> You also were not happy.


Certainly.  Revoking the mask mandate changes the behavior of perhaps 10% of people, increasing transmission relative to what it would have been.  That is a similar size change to a smaller percentage of vaccinations.



Desert Hound said:


> Here are a few examples of both experts, leaders and pundits all telling people to be afraid...be very afraid of TX re-opening.
> 
> So who is peddling disinformation and fear?
> 
> ...


And none of those comments says what you accuse them of saying: that ending the mask mandate would definitely lead to a large spike in cases.

FL and  TX _do_ have higher case rates than any of their neighbors.  I don’t really see this as vindication of their policies.

What you are seeing today is more subtle:  Our progress has been stalled.  In February, we were seeing daily case rates cut in half every 2-4 weeks.  Now, we are now seeing cases roughly flat.  States with more extreme policy swings (Michigan, New York) are seeing worse.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 6, 2021)

Funny how the smart folks are trying to convince us that the PCR has some type of precedence for determining public policy.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 6, 2021)

Fauci can't explain it......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379399850895237124


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci can't explain it......
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379399850895237124


Fauci the Fraudster,


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And none of those comments says what you accuse them of saying: that ending the mask mandate would definitely lead to a large spike in cases.


Really?

_Vanity Fair_ went over the top with this headline: “Republican Governors Celebrate COVID Anniversary With Bold Plan to *Kill Another 500,000* Americans.
or
*Virus guru Michael Osterholm* told CNN: “We’re walking into the mouth of the monster. We simply are.”
or
*The CDC’s Rochelle Walensky* didn’t mince words: “Please hear me clearly: At this level of cases with variants spreading, we stand to completely lose the hard-earned ground we have gained.

Those are just a couple.




dad4 said:


> FL and TX _do_ have higher case rates than any of their neighbors. I don’t really see this as vindication of their policies.


Yeah you still think CA did it the right way. So of course you don't see a non rise in cases most recently or their policy over the past year as any kind of vindication. 

I do. 

The vast majority of kids could not attend classes in CA. TX and FL had kids in class all year. I count that as a vindication of them getting it right. 

CA closed biz and hurt biz owners and employees. TX and FL kept theirs open. Biz stayed afloat and employees were able to work. In the real world that is called vindication. 

And it goes on. 

As usual you sit and stare at a model...don't look at real world data...and do no cost benefit analysis of what your preferred policies incur. 

That is why you cannot see that TX/FL did it the right way and CA and your way of thinking was completely wrong.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci can't explain it......
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379399850895237124


Neither can @dad4 and the other pro lockdowners. The reason? Their models say it isn't a good idea. They have not updated their models to reflect real world data.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci can't explain it......
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379399850895237124


That's a lot of words to say, "I have no idea".


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci can't explain it......
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379399850895237124


Not that hard to explain.

How many people in TX actually changed their behavior?  For those who did change behavior, how much of their behavior changed? 

You probably only saw around 10 or 20% of personal interactions go from a masked to an unmasked state.

Over that same time, vaccinations rose from 14% to 28% in Texas.   Given that current vaccines are significantly better than masks*, you’d expect a 14% increase in vaccines to more than offset a 20% decline in mask usage.

( *- I’m currently counting masks at 45% and 2 shot vaccines at 95%.  Happy to revise that if someone has a good argument. )


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not that hard to explain.
> 
> How many people in TX actually changed their behavior?  For those who did change behavior, how much of their behavior changed?
> 
> ...


Well, I'll give you this....at least you had the cajones to attempt to make an explanation to defend the truth faith.  Fauci couldn't even do that.  Guess you are better than Fauci now.


----------



## watfly (Apr 6, 2021)

You know what else is not hard to explain...that there is no reliable evidence supporting correlation between lockdown mandates and Covid infections and death.  However, there is evidence of causation between lockdown mandates and unemployment, mental health and education.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

Watch this. About 2 min in he gets around to TX. 









						The Texas ‘Death Warrant’ That Wasn’t | No Masks, No Lockdowns, No Surge
					

www.mattchristiansenmedia.com For reference material, see the YouTube post of this video: https://youtu.be/BAPSSvZ9Xig




					rumble.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not that hard to explain.
> 
> How many people in TX actually changed their behavior?  For those who did change behavior, how much of their behavior changed?
> 
> ...


Well they have been open all year. 

But...here you go again. 

Now you have your reasoning and are telling us yeah well the result is not surprising. And yet a month ago you thought it was a bad idea. Funny how that works

I stated a month ago that their gov was looking at the data, looking at the vaccine rollout and rightly assumed that removing restrictions on biz and masks would not lead to a rise in case. In other words they were looking at real world data and making a call on that. They got it right. 

You and many others would not have done that because you clearly thought this wouldn't happen. Now you act like the result isn't surprising. 

I need to get my neck worked on again. More whiplash.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well, I'll give you this....at least you had the cajones to attempt to make an explanation to defend the truth faith.  Fauci couldn't even do that.  Guess you are better than Fauci now.


Fauci is not going to wing an explanation for a specific state on national TV.  To him, ”what is happening in TX” is a perfectly reasonable research paper question.

My willingness to fling half-thoughts is not exactly to my credit.  You’ll noticed that I omitted the fact that March is one of the best times to be outside in Texas.  And five other things I don’t even know I missed.  All those “unknown unknowns”, as Rumsfeld would say.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well they have been open all year.
> 
> But...here you go again.
> 
> ...


No whiplash for you.  That would require trying to understand the arguments and numbers behind this.  

Your thought goes no further than “I have a bar.  Measures against the virus have hurt my bar.  Therefore all measures against the virus must be stupid.”. 

I am sure you find this to be a nice, consistent worldview.  Then you go out on social media, search for things that agree with you, and post them here.  That isn’t thought.  It’s a simple litmus test filter.  Your head is fixed, looking in exactly the same direction, so your neck is quite safe.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 6, 2021)

[
[/QUOTE]





dad4 said:


> Fauci is not going to wing an explanation for a specific state on national TV.  To him, ”what is happening in TX” is a perfectly reasonable research paper question.
> 
> My willingness to fling half-thoughts is not exactly to my credit.  You’ll noticed that I omitted the fact that March is one of the best times to be outside in Texas.  And five other things I don’t even know I missed.  All those “unknown unknowns”, as Rumsfeld would say.





dad4 said:


> Fauci is not going to wing an explanation for a specific state on national TV.  To him, ”what is happening in TX” is a perfectly reasonable research paper question.
> 
> My willingness to fling half-thoughts is not exactly to my credit.  You’ll noticed that I omitted the fact that March is one of the best times to be outside in Texas.  And five other things I don’t even know I missed.  All those “unknown unknowns”, as Rumsfeld would say.


so we are back to weather being a more powerful factor than masks and restrictions?  Good to know...I’m sure I’ve heard that somewhere before if I could only remember where.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No whiplash for you.  That would require trying to understand the arguments and numbers behind this.
> 
> Your thought goes no further than “I have a bar.  Measures against the virus have hurt my bar.  Therefore all measures against the virus must be stupid.”.
> 
> I am sure you find this to be a nice, consistent worldview.  Then you go out on social media, search for things that agree with you, and post them here.  That isn’t thought.  It’s a simple litmus test filter.  Your head is fixed, looking in exactly the same direction, so your neck is quite safe.


Oh I understand the arguments. 

I have watched you jump around picking out states you told us would be disasters, then later move on when said predictions didn't come through. 

I have watched you argue for testing every team playing in a tournament...without regard to understanding numbers. IE the cost of the testing and the fact that teens/kids have zero risk. 

I have watched you be very concerned about schools opening and would cherry pick an article here and there to try to prove a point. Ignoring that around the world millions had gone back to school without issue. 

I have watched you argue for killing off biz because you think they shouldn't be open. 

And it goes on. 

When called on the various above, you conveniently change your argument and move on to the next one. 

On of the most recent ones that come to mind is that you argued that (again) restaurants being open is probably the reason for a rise in (I forget which state). When I pointed out lots of other states also opened with no jump and then suddenly you complain you cannot look at one factor (despite the fact that you yourself had just done so). 

The policies you have advocated ruin biz, hurt employees, hurt education, etc. And a year out? Turns out you may as well have just been open. 

Education. Your preferred solution was online. CA for the longest time had 95% or more kids not in live classes. And yet many other states were fully in person classes without the problems you told us the math said would happen. 

And yet you still cling to the idea that gov policy is going to actually control a virus. And you do so without any regard for cost/benefit. On these 2 items you have been remarkably consistent.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Fauci is not going to wing an explanation for a specific state on national TV.  To him, ”what is happening in TX” *is a perfectly reasonable research paper question.*


Are epidemiologists historians who like to perform correlations? I thought you stated that it was all about prediction. Please correct me if I misstated your position - no intent to do so on my part. Regarding Fauci, how long has the pandemic been going on? How much historical data is available? Yet, he'll wait for a research paper to have an opinion ABOUT WHAT ALREADY HAPPENED. Again, this is why I don't want epidemiologists driving policy. They get a seat at the table, but they just aren't correct enough of the time to be deferred to as they have been.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Are epidemiologists historians who like to perform correlations? I thought you stated that it was all about prediction. Please correct me if I misstated your position - no intent to do so on my part. Regarding Fauci, how long has the pandemic been going on? How much historical data is available? Yet, he'll wait for a research paper to have an opinion ABOUT WHAT ALREADY HAPPENED. Again, this is why I don't want epidemiologists driving policy. They get a seat at the table, but they just aren't correct enough of the time to be deferred to as they have been.


Every time someone says "all", they are forgetting something.  Including the previous sentence.

Fauci may not have an opinion about why Texas in particular has 2000 cases per day instead of 3000.  

Why would you expect that he would?  

If Fauci did a deep dive into any one state, it's probably Michigan.  More likely, he's not even in the room when that level of analysis happens.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not that hard to explain.
> 
> How many people in TX actually changed their behavior?  For those who did change behavior, how much of their behavior changed?
> 
> ...


You're babbling again.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> You know what else is not hard to explain...that there is no reliable evidence supporting correlation between lockdown mandates and Covid infections and death.  However, there is evidence of causation between lockdown mandates and unemployment, mental health and education.


Please don't ask Dad4 to explain correlation.  He's all about P-values and PCR test results that have no precedence for lockdown mandates.  Damned be R-squared.  Not that you need R-squared to tell you what's obvious without it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Fauci is not going to wing an explanation for a specific state on national TV.  To him, ”what is happening in TX” is a perfectly reasonable research paper question.
> 
> My willingness to fling half-thoughts is not exactly to my credit.  You’ll noticed that I omitted the fact that March is one of the best times to be outside in Texas.  And five other things I don’t even know I missed.  All those “unknown unknowns”, as Rumsfeld would say.


Don't forget the Known, Knowns.  You've been flinging Unknown unknowns from the beginning.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No whiplash for you.  That would require trying to understand the arguments and numbers behind this.
> 
> Your thought goes no further than “I have a bar.  Measures against the virus have hurt my bar.  Therefore all measures against the virus must be stupid.”.
> 
> I am sure you find this to be a nice, consistent worldview.  Then you go out on social media, search for things that agree with you, and post them here.  That isn’t thought.  It’s a simple litmus test filter.  Your head is fixed, looking in exactly the same direction, so your neck is quite safe.


Waiting for you to post some historical PCR data from SAR's-1 and our last lockdown.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 6, 2021)

California Gov. Gavin Newsom On MLB Pulling All-Star Game Out Of Georgia: ‘Give Us A Call’


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not that hard to explain.
> 
> How many people in TX actually changed their behavior?  For those who did change behavior, how much of their behavior changed?
> 
> ...


There are those who rebelled against masks and still do and those who wore masks and still do . . . not a lot of converts between the two groups.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> There are those who rebelled against masks and still do and those who wore masks and still do . . . not a lot of converts between the two groups.


That's a very overly simplistic way of looking at things.  On the pro mask side you have those who though masks were better than vaccines, those who thought masks could control curves, and those who thought masks might make the curves a little less severe.  The religion ranges from the strict bible thumping evangelicals to strict ritualistic Catholicisms to mainline Methodists.    On the antimasks side you had us lapsed Catholics that thought while they might be mildly helpful they were being oversold and shouldn't be put on screaming 2 years olds on planes, to skeptical agnostics, to hard core antimask atheists.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's a very overly simplistic way of looking at things.  On the pro mask side you have those who though masks were better than vaccines, those who thought masks could control curves, and those who thought masks might make the curves a little less severe.  The religion ranges from the strict bible thumping evangelicals to strict ritualistic Catholicisms to mainline Methodists.    On the antimasks side you had us lapsed Catholics that thought while they might be mildly helpful they were being oversold and shouldn't be put on screaming 2 years olds on planes, to skeptical agnostics, to hard core antimask atheists.


Screaming 2 year olds should not be put on planes.

No wonder we can't get this under control.  We assume that the nation's 2 year olds have pressing business 1000 miles away, and are discussing what they should wear on the plane.

The 2 year old should be outside, eating sand, at the playground.  No plane required.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Screaming 2 year olds should not be put on planes.
> 
> No wonder we can't get this under control. We assume that the nation's 2 year olds have pressing business 1000 miles away, and are discussing what they should wear on the plane.


There you go again. Mr Authoritarian.

There are lots of reasons parents take their kids somewhere. 

The main reason is it is their right. They don't need to check with you or anyone else to see if it is "approved".

Your instinct time and time again is to tell people they can't work, can't send their kids to school, etc.

And yet a yr after watching heavy restrictions fail, you advocate for the same.

Says a lot about you.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> There you go again. Mr Authoritarian.
> 
> There are lots of reasons parents take their kids somewhere.
> 
> ...


Nice personal attack.

There is point in discussing this further until we both agree to accept the basic science on covid:   

Masks and vaccines reduce spread, bars and restaurants increase spread.  

Until then, you're just one more internet loon who thinks he's smarter than the CDC.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Screaming 2 year olds should not be put on planes.
> 
> No wonder we can't get this under control.  We assume that the nation's 2 year olds have pressing business 1000 miles away, and are discussing what they should wear on the plane.
> 
> The 2 year old should be outside, eating sand, at the playground.  No plane required.


Wow just wow. You’re that guy that gives a dirty look when a small child or a baby cries on the plane. I’m speechless...right up there with the guys that give the breast feeding mother the dirty look. You don’t know why 2 year olds have to travel and who the f are you to judge someone else’s choices. You’re the guy that made the tournament exception remember so your hands are t exactly clean.  Like you, so genuinely disappointed you are that guy.

ps who else thinks he’s just trolling us now?  Can’t be real. If so congrats....one of the more epic false trolls on these boards....much more clever character than Eotl, sheriff Joe, that band guy or espola.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nice personal attack.
> 
> There is point in discussing this further until we both agree to accept the basic science on covid:
> 
> ...





dad4 said:


> Nice personal attack.
> 
> There is point in discussing this further until we both agree to accept the basic science on covid:
> 
> ...


The questions have always been:
A. How much?
B. At what cost?
and C. Relative to what other factors?
Ps calling you an authoritarian isn’t much of a personal attack. You have an authoritarian streak even if you won’t admit it to yourself


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The questions have always been:
> A. How much?
> B. At what cost?
> and C. Relative to what other factors?
> Ps calling you an authoritarian isn’t much of a personal attack. You have an authoritarian streak even if you won’t admit it to yourself


There are good estimates for how much masks reduce transmission.

Masks reduce transmission by 70-79% for transmission between households, and 0% for transmission within a household.  Works out to a 45-54% reduction overall.

At what cost?  About $40 for a 20 pack of K94.  Or $10 for a decent cloth one.

Seems clear enough.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 6, 2021)

As


dad4 said:


> There are good estimates for how much masks reduce transmission.
> 
> Masks reduce transmission by 70-79% for transmission between households, and 0% for transmission within a household.  Works out to a 45-54% reduction overall.
> 
> ...


as usual you overestimate the benefit by assuming perfect use, not discounting for long term use and conflating the benefits of distancing.  You underestimate the costs such as screaming 2 year olds and austistic kids, the enviro damage and the social damage

Passed a guy on laurel today selling styled masks on a sidewalk stand. Had still a lot of masks.  Doubt they are on consignment.  He’s got maybe a handful of months of business left even in California so hope for his sake he didn’t go all in.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> There are those who rebelled against masks and still do and those who wore masks and still do . . . not a lot of converts between the two groups.


That's not even close to being true but you like to paint a picture with an aisle down the middle.  It's likely that many more people wear the mask but find it rather silly.  Rather than cause a scene , they remain civil and respectful of others, they wear a mask.  The extremists farthest from the aisle are always the loudest (and usually the smallest groups)

Most people I know wear a mask because it's the decent thing to do (right now) .  There is enough "science" on both sides of the aisle to drive anyone crazy - and that's what's happened.


----------



## watfly (Apr 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As
> 
> as usual you overestimate the benefit by assuming perfect use, not discounting for long term use and conflating the benefits of distancing.  You underestimate the costs such as screaming 2 year olds and austistic kids, the enviro damage and the social damage
> 
> Passed a guy on laurel today selling styled masks on a sidewalk stand. Had still a lot of masks.  Doubt they are on consignment.  He’s got maybe a handful of months of business left even in California so hope for his sake he didn’t go all in.


 I flew during Covid and likely wouldn't have flown if masks weren't mandatory and the middle seat wasn't open.  This despite the fact I'm skeptical of mask mandates.  On the other hand you have the mask addicts who swear by the science that masks are very effective but wouldn't even consider getting on a plane.  Why is that? It's because it has nothing to do with science and everything to do fear. Fear corrupts rational thought.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> Fear corrupts rational thought.


So does power


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> I flew during Covid and likely wouldn't have flown if masks weren't mandatory and the middle seat wasn't open.  This despite the fact I'm skeptical of mask mandates.  On the other hand you have the mask addicts who swear by the science that masks are very effective but wouldn't even consider getting on a plane.  Why is that? It's because it has nothing to do with science and everything to do fear. Fear corrupts rational thought.


Count me as a mask addict who won’t fly.

I believe masks, worn as most people wear them, reduce risk by about 70%.   So, they work, but not perfectly.

If a location, like an airplane, is high risk, then a 70% risk reduction still does not bring it within my own tolerance. 

Read “risk tolerance“ as “willingness to be part of the problem”.  I am not in a particularly high risk group.  The main risk for me is that I would give it to someone else.  But the logic is the same.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> I flew during Covid and likely wouldn't have flown if masks weren't mandatory and the middle seat wasn't open.  This despite the fact I'm skeptical of mask mandates.  On the other hand you have the mask addicts who swear by the science that masks are very effective but wouldn't even consider getting on a plane.  Why is that? It's because it has nothing to do with science and everything to do fear. Fear corrupts rational thought.


The nz study kicking posted recently should put to rest the idea that masks protect you on a plane. People got Ill despite spacing and mask usage. It’s probably because of the length of time on a flight.  From the bus studies early on, the middle seat might have helped but 2 seats over is still close not to mention who is sitting behind you or across the aisle.  It’s likely that while on a macro level these policies might reduce transmissions on a plane, on a micro level they don’t do much to protect you other than make you feel safe because it’s still up to chance...someone sick sits near you you have a good shot at getting covid. it’s been the same experience in factories, slaughterhouses and farms.   The masks on a micro level seem to help most against short term exposures like at the grocery store or hair dresser but on a macro level that would have relatively little impact on overall numbers.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Count me as a mask addict who won’t fly.
> 
> I believe masks, worn as most people wear them, reduce risk by about 70%.   So, they work, but not perfectly.
> 
> ...


If you are wearing a cloth mask and the ill person is wearing a cloth mask and seated behind you, no way the risk is reduced 70% to you.  Even the mannequin simulations under perfect short term mask wearing conditions didn’t find that. Macro and micro effects sometimes diverge...this is likely one of those situations.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you are wearing a cloth mask and the ill person is wearing a cloth mask and seated behind you, no way the risk is reduced 70% to you.  Even the mannequin simulations under perfect short term mask wearing conditions didn’t find that. Macro and micro effects sometimes diverge...this is likely one of those situations.


Even if it is a 70% reduction, you may be measuring the difference between being infected ten times over versus being infected three times over.  

It is nice to lower the viral load, but it’s still not safe.

Like I said, I don’t plan to fly until vaccinated.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow just wow. You’re that guy that gives a dirty look when a small child or a baby cries on the plane. I’m speechless...right up there with the guys that give the breast feeding mother the dirty look. You don’t know why 2 year olds have to travel and who the f are you to judge someone else’s choices. You’re the guy that made the tournament exception remember so your hands are t exactly clean.  Like you, so genuinely disappointed you are that guy.
> 
> ps who else thinks he’s just trolling us now?  Can’t be real. If so congrats....one of the more epic false trolls on these boards....much more clever character than Eotl, sheriff Joe, that band guy or espola.


Seriously, I read that as a joke and I kept waiting for @dad4 to let everyone know he was joking. Guess not. 

No, I don't think he's trolling. I don't believe espola is trolling either. I think he is what he presents here.


----------



## espola (Apr 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow just wow. You’re that guy that gives a dirty look when a small child or a baby cries on the plane. I’m speechless...right up there with the guys that give the breast feeding mother the dirty look. You don’t know why 2 year olds have to travel and who the f are you to judge someone else’s choices. You’re the guy that made the tournament exception remember so your hands are t exactly clean.  Like you, so genuinely disappointed you are that guy.
> 
> ps who else thinks he’s just trolling us now?  Can’t be real. If so congrats....one of the more epic false trolls on these boards....much more clever character than Eotl, sheriff Joe, that band guy or espola.


What did I do?

And who is "that band guy"?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 7, 2021)

We knew surface transmission wasn't an issue for quite some time.

And yet it has taken us till now till the CDC makes the announcement.









						CDC tells businesses to 'end the hygiene theater'
					

'People can be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 through contact with surfaces and objects, however... the risk by this route of transmission is actually low,' said CDC director Dr Walensky.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## watfly (Apr 7, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Seriously, I read that as a joke and I kept waiting for @dad4 to let everyone know he was joking. Guess not.
> 
> No, I don't think he's trolling. I don't believe espola is trolling either. I think he is what he presents here.


I thought the same thing.  I could say a lot about what he said but I'll just say it's very sad that people have that mentality.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Even if it is a 70% reduction, you may be measuring the difference between being infected ten times over versus being infected three times over.
> 
> It is nice to lower the viral load, but it’s still not safe.
> 
> Like I said, I don’t plan to fly until vaccinated.


I think the above is very telling. 

I believe you are in your 40s and healthy. As such you have no real risk of dying from covid. 
You believe masks are effective. 

And yet you wouldn't fly. 

The data says you are fine. You won't because fear overrides the real world data. 

And that suddenly makes clear and encapsulates why you advocate what you do. I kept wondering why you don't adjust based on real world results. Now I know. 

We know kids and teachers in class is not a problem. You are a teacher and you say you follow the math. I don't see you advocating for fully opening schools. As a matter of fact you have gone rather silent in this area. 

I now know why. It isn't the data that drives you. It is fear and uncertainty.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 7, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Seriously, I read that as a joke and I kept waiting for @dad4 to let everyone know he was joking. Guess not.
> 
> No, I don't think he's trolling. I don't believe espola is trolling either. I think he is what he presents here.


Half joke, half serious.

I do think we should not fly until vaccinated.  Given that I also think we shouldn’t go to bars or restaurants, that ought not be a surprise.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I think the above is very telling.
> 
> I believe you are in your 40s and healthy. As such you have no real risk of dying from covid.
> You believe masks are effective.
> ...


Now run the numbers on the risk, through me, to other people. 

I am not asking whether I personally am at risk.  I am not.

 I am asking whether my actions cause significant harm to others.   I wish you were capable of doing the same.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> We knew surface transmission wasn't an issue for quite some time.
> 
> And yet it has taken us till now till the CDC makes the announcement.
> 
> ...


This is why people don't trust government and have a low opinion of government agencies.  Businesses have been diverting $$$$ to be compliant IAW federal and local agencies.  Now turns out that it was a waste of money -oops, sorry business man, sunk cost, my bad.

"Hygiene theater" has caused product shortages, driven up pricing, and cost small biz to lay off workers or reduce pay to account for the cost of materials.  Wait until we figure out that hand sanitizer was also a bad idea.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 7, 2021)

happy9 said:


> This is why people don't trust government and have a low opinion of government agencies.  Businesses have been diverting $$$$ to be compliant IAW federal and local agencies.  Now turns out that it was a waste of money -oops, sorry business man, sunk cost, my bad.
> 
> "Hygiene theater" has caused product shortages, driven up pricing, and cost small biz to lay off workers or reduce pay to account for the cost of materials.  Wait until we figure out that hand sanitizer was also a bad idea.


Remember when people rushed out and bought all the bottled water?    Too soon????


----------



## N00B (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Half joke, half serious.
> 
> I do think we should not fly until vaccinated.  Given that I also think we shouldn’t go to bars or restaurants, that ought not be a surprise.


Assuming you are a teacher, not sure if that is only a label placed on you by others, why haven’t you chosen to be vaccinated?

It would seem that you advocate for vaccination/mitigation and should be eligible.  Why not?


----------



## watfly (Apr 7, 2021)

N00B said:


> Assuming you are a teacher, not sure if that is only a label placed on you by others, why haven’t you chosen to be vaccinated?
> 
> It would seem that you advocate for vaccination/mitigation and should be eligible.  Why not?


Every teacher I know has been vaccinated, the County has made it fairly easy for them.  In fact, I would say the majority of my friends and family have at least their first shot (80% effective against Covid), including my 17 yo daughter.  If you want a vaccine you can get one if you put a little effort into it.  There are a lot of different options although going through your healthcare provider isn't a very good one in San Diego.


----------



## watfly (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Now run the numbers on the risk, through me, to other people.
> 
> I am not asking whether I personally am at risk.  I am not.
> 
> I am asking whether my actions cause significant harm to others.   I wish you were capable of doing the same.


If you really felt that way you'd already be vaccinated.  Teachers were eligible March 1 in California.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Remember when people rushed out and bought all the bottled water?    Too soon????


shhh


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> If you really felt that way you'd already be vaccinated.  Teachers were eligible March 1 in California.


B I N G O


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> If you really felt that way you'd already be vaccinated.  Teachers were eligible March 1 in California.


It's even broader than "teachers".  Child care providers, camp counselors, tutors, coaches (club and school), private trainers, ballet instructors, yoga instructors, college guest lecturers, fellows, horse back riding instructors have all been eligible either under the educator or child care provider label.


----------



## watfly (Apr 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> B I N G O


I'm not really that good at math, but isn't 94% effective (vaccines) higher than 70% effective (masks)?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 7, 2021)

N00B said:


> Assuming you are a teacher, not sure if that is only a label placed on you by others, why haven’t you chosen to be vaccinated?
> 
> It would seem that you advocate for vaccination/mitigation and should be eligible.  Why not?


My vaccination status is my own business, thank you.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'm not really that good at math, but isn't 94% effective (vaccines) higher than 70% effective (masks)?


Who is arguing that it isn’t?  

Given a choice between Moderna and an N95, the vaccine offers better protection to both the individual and the society.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> My vaccination status is my own business, thank you.


I think you already shared with us your status.




dad4 said:


> Like I said, I don’t plan to fly until vaccinated.


So I guess by avoiding getting vaccinated you can continue to find a reason not to teach in person?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I think you already shared with us your status.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Assume what you like.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 7, 2021)

I'm late, (not on here as often,) but I just can't get outraged about the non masked two year old getting kicked off a plane. Is it right? Meh- not something I'd personally enforce but not up to me. I feel like people have become very "Watch me make a statement blah blah blah" and in turn do stuff like this that delays everyone's flight. It's like come on- you know the rules by now, pick another airline that doesn't have that rule. If I'm a passenger wanting to get home, I'm not gonna be happy. Seems like a silly thing to make an example out of. Cover the kids face during take off and then loosen up.


----------



## watfly (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> My vaccination status is my own business, thank you.


I'll take that as no.  Incredibly ironic but I'm glad you're finally admitting that personal decisions, particularly health decisions, are nobody's business but your own.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 7, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I'm late, (not on here as often,) but I just can't get outraged about the non masked two year old getting kicked off a plane. Is it right? Meh- not something I'd personally enforce but not up to me. I feel like people have become very "Watch me make a statement blah blah blah" and in turn do stuff like this that delays everyone's flight. It's like come on- you know the rules by now, pick another airline that doesn't have that rule. If I'm a passenger wanting to get home, I'm not gonna be happy. Seems like a silly thing to make an example out of. Cover the kids face during take off and then loosen up.


I'm not aware of any airline in the United States that allows 2 year olds to fly without masks.  I think it's in part because of some CDC guideline?  After the problem with that autistic kid a while back, IIRC some airlines allow certain very limited exceptions for kids with Downs and very severe autism but there are like many hoops to jump through.  The WHO's guidance was to recommend but not mandate for kids 2-5 which is a more reasonable policy, but people are really just pulling arbitrary numbers out their arses here since there isn't any science to exempting a baby more than a 2 year old more than a 5 year old, and there are a lot of 2 year olds out there perfectly capable of wearing masks, and some 7 year olds that just aren't for prolonged periods.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'll take that as no.  Incredibly ironic but I'm glad you're finally admitting that personal decisions, particularly health decisions, are nobody's business but your own.


It’s more a statement that I’m tired of Hound and Grace turning everything into a personal attack.


----------



## watfly (Apr 7, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I'm late, (not on here as often,) but I just can't get outraged about the non masked two year old getting kicked off a plane. Is it right? Meh- not something I'd personally enforce but not up to me. I feel like people have become very "Watch me make a statement blah blah blah" and in turn do stuff like this that delays everyone's flight. It's like come on- you know the rules by now, pick another airline that doesn't have that rule. If I'm a passenger wanting to get home, I'm not gonna be happy. Seems like a silly thing to make an example out of. Cover the kids face during take off and then loosen up.


Understand your point, but based on the accounts the flight attendant did not give the family the option to comply instead just told them to deplane our she would call the cops.  The other passengers were supportive of the family.  A Spirit Airlines supervisor subsequently, and correctly so, allowed them back on the plane.  We're it not for the flight attendant's hysteria and gross overreaction none of this would have ever happened.  In my mind it was a "silly thing" for the flight attendant to make an example out of and lighten up, not the family.  And yes, I agree I would be pissed if my flight had been delayed regardless of who is at fault.


----------



## watfly (Apr 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The WHO's guidance was to recommend but not mandate for kids 2-5 which is a more reasonable policy, but people are really just pulling arbitrary numbers out their arses here since there isn't any science to exempting a baby more than a 2 year old more than a 5 year old, and there are a lot of 2 year olds out there perfectly capable of wearing masks, and some 7 year olds that just aren't for prolonged periods.


7 year olds?  I personally know a 55 year old that has a hard time wearing a mask for a prolonged period of time.


----------



## espola (Apr 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> Understand your point, but based on the accounts the flight attendant did not give the family the option to comply instead just told them to deplane our she would call the cops.  The other passengers were supportive of the family.  A Spirit Airlines supervisor subsequently, and correctly so, allowed them back on the plane.  We're it not for the flight attendant's hysteria and gross overreaction none of this would have ever happened.  In my mind it was a "silly thing" for the flight attendant to make an example out of and lighten up, not the family.  And yes, I agree I would be pissed if my flight had been delayed regardless of who is at fault.


I didn't see any actions by the flight attendant that I would characterize as "hysteria".


----------



## watfly (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s more a statement that I’m tired of Hound and Grace turning everything into a personal attack.


Well in your defense you are getting picked on (myself included), but in our defense you keep stepping in it...IMO.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> Well in your defense you are getting picked on (myself included), but in our defense you keep stepping in it...IMO.


You mean I keep disagreeing with you.

That’s fine.  A quality disagreement is helpful.  Grace’s comments on masks and in-home transmission increased my understanding of how to think about the value of mask usage.   

Most of this thread has devolved into a very low quality disgreement.  I say that I feel it is irresponsible to put a 2 year old on a plane during a respiratory pandemic.  Grace assumes that, therefore, I must give dirty looks to nursing mothers.

No basis in fact.  No attempt to understand and learn the opposing point of view.  Just a random insult with a tenuous link to my comment.

Oh well.  Serves me right for expecting civility online.  Hope your day is good.


----------



## watfly (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Hope your day is good.


You as well.  It's been good days and getting better.  I feel lucky that our family will come out of Covid relatively unscathed (despite my complaining).  I do feel sad for others and I'm still concerned about the long term impact to our community for the loss of real education and small business for a year.  Their are some silver linings but they don't outweigh the negative impacts of Covid and the lockdowns.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You mean I keep disagreeing with you.
> 
> That’s fine.  A quality disagreement is helpful.  Grace’s comments on masks and in-home transmission increased my understanding of how to think about the value of mask usage.
> 
> ...


You specifically said 2 year olds should not be put on planes.  You singled them out, saying there was no reason for them to be.  

You could have said no one should be flying except for certain reasons such as unavoidable business emergencies, health emergencies or funerals or the like, but you didn't.  But you didn't...you singled out the family for flying with a 2 year old.

What's worse is you made a judgement on a family for carving out their own exception, when you did the same with your tournament.

I said that was like people who don't like babies crying on planes or seeing nursing mothers (because they don't think it's "appropriate" and make judgements on the parents, which is what you did).  If you didn't carry that sentiment: a) you should have phrased it some other way, and b) you were given plenty of opportunity to rebut what you meant but the best you came up with was when kicking gave you a door out you were only half-joking.

By way of personal attacks, it's also pretty weak (as weak as calling you authoritarian).  The logical response is to say "no I'd never call out a family for flying with a baby or 2 year old except during a pandemic" (which I suspect you didn't do because it would leave you open to a criticism well what about for example a family that's moving, or a 2 year old going to a funeral and you didn't want to rebut each "what if" since it would leave you increasingly on an ever smaller iceberg) or "no I'd never call out a nursing mother" but I suspect the reason you take such criticism so harshly is because it hits a little too close to home.  You are free to correct the record, and I'm sure all of us would give more than willingly give you the benefit of the doubt.  We all misspeak and it would be uncharitable not to take you at your word.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I say that I feel it is irresponsible to put a 2 year old on a plane during a respiratory pandemic. Grace assumes that, therefore, I must give dirty looks to nursing mothers.


This is where AGAIN you divert from data. 

There is nothing irresponsible about putting a 2 yr old on the plane. 

The data shows that kids have pretty much zero risk. Further the data shows they are not spreaders. 

So while you may FEEL it is irresponsible, the actual real world data says there is absolutely no issue with having them on planes.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> Understand your point, but based on the accounts the flight attendant did not give the family the option to comply instead just told them to deplane our she would call the cops.  The other passengers were supportive of the family.  A Spirit Airlines supervisor subsequently, and correctly so, allowed them back on the plane.  We're it not for the flight attendant's hysteria and gross overreaction none of this would have ever happened.  In my mind it was a "silly thing" for the flight attendant to make an example out of and lighten up, not the family.  And yes, I agree I would be pissed if my flight had been delayed regardless of who is at fault.


I always try and put myself in the employees shoes- kind of like the teen girl working at the yogurt shop that I saw get berated by a religious zealot who said that "Christians don't wear masks and her parents must be so disappointed in her, etc," when she ever-so-politely asked if the family would please put their masks on inside. Some of these workers could face retaliation from their employer for not holding people to the rules. Nobody wants to get fired either. Shitty situation all around.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 7, 2021)

Example of the irrational mask fear we were talking about earlier.  Girl who is young, but apparently has an "extremely compromised immune system" loses it in an elevator when a delivery person wears a mask improperly (as people are prone to do) and refuses to move away from the door so she can pass.  If you are that fearful, why are you taking the elevator at all (instead of walking however many stairs)?  And then rather than just hold your breathe, hit the button for the next floor and walk out of the elevator you proceed to have a yelling match inside said small confined space?  Nothing rational about this.....all fear.



			https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=girl+loses+it+in+the+elevator


----------



## espola (Apr 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Example of the irrational mask fear we were talking about earlier.  Girl who is young, but apparently has an "extremely compromised immune system" loses it in an elevator when a delivery person wears a mask improperly (as people are prone to do) and refuses to move away from the door so she can pass.  If you are that fearful, why are you taking the elevator at all (instead of walking however many stairs)?  And then rather than just hold your breathe, hit the button for the next floor and walk out of the elevator you proceed to have a yelling match inside said small confined space?  Nothing rational about this.....all fear.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=girl+loses+it+in+the+elevator


People are prone to do?  That's not my experience.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Example of the irrational mask fear we were talking about earlier.  Girl who is young, but apparently has an "extremely compromised immune system" loses it in an elevator when a delivery person wears a mask improperly (as people are prone to do) and refuses to move away from the door so she can pass.  If you are that fearful, why are you taking the elevator at all (instead of walking however many stairs)?  And then rather than just hold your breathe, hit the button for the next floor and walk out of the elevator you proceed to have a yelling match inside said small confined space?  Nothing rational about this.....all fear.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=girl+loses+it+in+the+elevator


Wow. That is equal parts sad and irrational. Sad because that poor girl is clearly suffering from something and well, don't need to explain the irrational part!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Screaming 2 year olds should not be put on planes.
> 
> No wonder we can't get this under control.  We assume that the nation's 2 year olds have pressing business 1000 miles away, and are discussing what they should wear on the plane.
> 
> The 2 year old should be outside, eating sand, at the playground.  No plane required.


Is that what this is all about?  Your parents never took you anywhere when you were two?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nice personal attack.
> 
> There is point in discussing this further until we both agree to accept the basic science on covid:
> 
> ...


Aren't you ignoring the Science that says we have an immune system?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Is that what this is all about?  Your parents never took you anywhere when you were two?


Not really about age.

I don't believe people of any age should take recreational airplane trips during a respiratory pandemic.

If you've taken more than 4 or 5 plane trips, chances are you caught a cold or flu on one of them.  

This is because airplanes are great at spreading airborne disease:  lots of people, enclosed space, prolonged exposure, limited ventilation.  

If we actually want to be rid of this thing, we should avoid the places which spread it.  Like planes.

That's all.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really about age.
> 
> I don't believe people of any age should take recreational airplane trips during a respiratory pandemic.
> 
> ...


And again you were against the idea of a kid traveling. They have zero risk and are known not to be spreading covid.

And so you ignore data again. Your fear means your solutions are not based on data.

Go look at cdc data for under 17 and tell me why that kid should not be traveling. You cannot.

And that is why I am always on your ass. Your solutions don't hold up to real world data.

The fact that you think there is no reason to have a 2 yr old travel and that it is unacceptable means you don't actually look at data.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 7, 2021)

"Look, there's so much of this virus that we think we understand, that we think we can predict, that's just a little bit beyond our explanation."—government expert


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> There are good estimates for how much masks reduce transmission.
> 
> Masks reduce transmission by 70-79% for transmission between households, and 0% for transmission within a household.  Works out to a 45-54% reduction overall.
> 
> ...


Source?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really about age.
> 
> I don't believe people of any age should take recreational airplane trips during a respiratory pandemic.
> 
> ...


When was the last time planes and respiratory virus's caused the U.S. to shut down the economy?  When was the last time we used PCR test to lock down our economy?  When was the last time you studied the human immune system?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 7, 2021)

We've all seen it. Some of you may even have had to do it.

The "deep clean" of workplaces (and even homes) supposedly to fight the virus.

Obsessive sanitizing of surfaces goes on all over the place. It's everywhere we look.

For many months, even people who disagree with us on lockdowns insisted that people were overcleaning in response to the virus, and that there was no point in doing this. The virus essentially doesn't spread from surfaces.

Well, now even the CDC, which so far has urged every ludicrous bit of pandemic theater, says: you can stop all the obsessive deep cleaning now.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 7, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You mean I keep disagreeing with you.
> 
> That’s fine.  A quality disagreement is helpful.  Grace’s comments on masks and in-home transmission increased my understanding of how to think about the value of mask usage.
> 
> ...


I actually agree with you here.  Use of mask have no basis in fact.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 8, 2021)

happy9 said:


> That's not even close to being true but you like to paint a picture with an aisle down the middle.  It's likely that many more people wear the mask but find it rather silly.  Rather than cause a scene , they remain civil and respectful of others, they wear a mask.  The extremists farthest from the aisle are always the loudest (and usually the smallest groups)
> 
> Most people I know wear a mask because it's the decent thing to do (right now) .  There is enough "science" on both sides of the aisle to drive anyone crazy - and that's what's happened.


You seem to have decided to change my meaning to suit your agenda.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 8, 2021)

happy9 said:


> That's not even close to being true but you like to paint a picture with an aisle down the middle.  It's likely that many more people wear the mask but find it rather silly.  Rather than cause a scene , they remain civil and respectful of others, they wear a mask.  The extremists farthest from the aisle are always the loudest (and usually the smallest groups)
> 
> Most people I know wear a mask because it's the decent thing to do (right now) .  There is enough "science" on both sides of the aisle to drive anyone crazy - and that's what's happened.


I see your problem. You think there are “alternative facts”.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Half joke, half serious.
> 
> I do think we should not fly until vaccinated.  Given that I also think we shouldn’t go to bars or restaurants, that ought not be a surprise.


A bar, a place to drink alcohol that has a parking lot makes no sense to me in the first place.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Now run the numbers on the risk, through me, to other people.
> 
> I am not asking whether I personally am at risk.  I am not.
> 
> I am asking whether my actions cause significant harm to others.   I wish you were capable of doing the same.


Nutters don’t give a damn about how they effect others in any way.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s more a statement that I’m tired of Hound and Grace turning everything into a personal attack.


That’s all they got.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I see your problem. You think there are “alternative facts”.


Of course there are alternative facts.  It's how politicians do business.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You seem to have decided to change my meaning to suit your agenda.


how so?


----------



## texanincali (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> My vaccination status is my own business, thank you.


How exactly does your vaccination status being your own business differ from anyone’s else’s mask wearing status being their own business?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Source?


Look for the CDC page on why they recommend masks.  You'll find the 70%and 79% reduction numbers there.

45% and 54% are what to our get when you assume the 70 or 79 only applies half the time.  (Because the other half of cases transmission is inside the home.  )


----------



## dad4 (Apr 8, 2021)

texanincali said:


> How exactly does your vaccination status being your own business differ from anyone’s else’s mask wearing status being their own business?


One is a broad public health measure to reduce the spread of disease.

The other is an ad hominem cheap shot from two people who ran out of logical arguments.

If the local restaurant wants to know whether I am vaccinated, I am happy to follow their rules.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look for the CDC page on why they recommend masks.  You'll find the 70%and 79% reduction numbers there.
> 
> 45% and 54% are what to our get when you assume the 70 or 79 only applies half the time.  (Because the other half of cases transmission is inside the home.  )


You keep clinging to that. 

CDC studies over decades showed masks were ineffective vs influenza like viruses. Why suddenly masks will work now vs a similar type of virus?

In Feb of this year, the European version of the CDC said the following. 

1) They point out that masks have never been shown to be effective in stopping the flu. 
2) They say medical masks are associated with only a small to moderate affect of stopping covid. They then immediately make the caveat that there are still SIGNIFICANT uncertainties about about the size and effect. 

*This means they cannot really prove they (masks) make much of a difference. * 

3) Evidence of non medical mask protection is scarce and of very low uncertainty.

4) They point out that more studies are needed to determine if medical masks are actually effective. 

In sum, they are saying they just don't know if or how effective masks are.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Nutters don’t give a damn about how they effect others in any way.


Agree.  That’s why the nutters on lockdown show higher case counts than the non-locdown folks.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look for the CDC page on why they recommend masks.  You'll find the 70%and 79% reduction numbers there.
> 
> 45% and 54% are what to our get when you assume the 70 or 79 only applies half the time.  (Because the other half of cases transmission is inside the home.  )


Link?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> That’s all they got.


Show him where the safe zone is at.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 8, 2021)

And then you have this from the Canadian government explaining what masks do and dont. 

Surgical and non medical masks stop droplets and spit. 

They do not provide a tight seal around the face. 

They don't effectively filter small particles (ie viruses).

What masks do (and to be fair it isn't in this chart) is that it A) virtue signals and B) creates a false sense of safety for those who wear them.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Link?


This is the page he refers to.









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 8, 2021)

.





Desert Hound said:


> This is the page he refers to.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The NZ study Kicking posted recently blows a huge hole in this.  Not only does it knock out one of the pillars in the CDC study (the airline part, which dad4 himself apparently admits now is not very safe), but it also seems to show that aerosolized transmission is sometimes possible under certain conditions, not just droplets.  A bunch of the other studies including the Roosevelt study conflate distancing/caution with masking, which leaves basically the hairdresser, which is an ideal situation (short term exposures, face to head) for which masks can most likely readily help.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 8, 2021)

If you really want to lower case numbers, you’ll want to fight biological warfare with respirators not mask.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You keep clinging to that.
> 
> CDC studies over decades showed masks were ineffective vs influenza like viruses. Why suddenly masks will work now vs a similar type of virus?
> 
> ...


You left out the part where ecdc recommends that you wear face masks while indoors in public spaces.  

They also point out that a face mask is not a reason to be stupid about other things, such as distancing.

Ok.  Wear a mask while indoors, and give other people some space.  Sounds like good advice.

Link to the whole thing, February 2021 version:









						Considerations for the use of face masks in the community in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern
					

This document provides an update to and complements the ECDC technical report on “Using face masks in the community: first update - Effectiveness in reducing transmission of COVID-19” published on 15 February 2021.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu
				




And March 2021 version:









						Video: Help slow the spread of COVID-19 - wear a face mask!
					

We have cross-checked all the latest research on the use of face masks during the pandemic.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu
				




The March version takes away the wiggle room and just says “wear your mask”.

They do not seem to be saying “maybe masks don’t work.”


----------



## espola (Apr 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You seem to have decided to change my meaning to suit your agenda.


Based on the experience of the last year or so -- masks work, but mask mandates don't.


----------



## texanincali (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> One is a broad public health measure to reduce the spread of disease.
> 
> The other is an ad hominem cheap shot from two people who ran out of logical arguments.
> 
> If the local restaurant wants to know whether I am vaccinated, I am happy to follow their rules.


I’m not saying your stance is wrong.  Just hypocritical.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 8, 2021)

texanincali said:


> I’m not saying your stance is wrong.  Just hypocritical.


When you're the victim of supposed cheap shots all around (not to mention the company one seems to be keeping), perhaps it's time for a pensive person to go "hmmmmmm?".


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You left out the part where ecdc recommends that you wear face masks while indoors in public spaces.


I fully agree they recommend masks. 

However before they recommend wearing masks they point out that they don't really know if masks work. 

They are pretty clear that as of yet, more studies need to be done to determine if masks actually work.

*You like the fact they they recommend masks*. You conveniently *ignore the fact that they say they don't know IF masks work. *

There is no March version of the report. They just say wear a mask and link you to what I posted above.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ok. Wear a mask while indoors, and give other people some space. Sounds like good advice.


Sounds like good advice?

The problem is, they say they don't know if masks actually work. 

So that recommendation is not based on actual studies/data. 

They themselves say they don't know and say they (the scientific community) needs to do research in this area.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 8, 2021)

No dog in this fight but I have to wonder- where is all the flu? Is it a result of masks and distancing, people not getting tested for fear of getting covid, or?? Thoughts?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 8, 2021)

espola said:


> Based on the experience of the last year or so -- masks work, but mask mandates don't.


The other view is that the primary impact of mandates is through cultural shift.  It gradually became impolite to not wear a mask.  Conversely, when you repeal the mandate, the opposite behavioral change takes time, too.

A change with a 4 month phase in and 4 month phase out is harder to capture in statistics.  So the data for mandates will be weaker than the data for masks- whether or not mandates ultimately work.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 8, 2021)

texanincali said:


> I’m not saying your stance is wrong.  Just hypocritical.


Whatever.  Any comments on me and my life now go into the Grace/Hound ad hominem cheap shot bucket.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 8, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> No dog in this fight but I have to wonder- where is all the flu? Is it a result of masks and distancing, people not getting tested for fear of getting covid, or?? Thoughts?


a. Flu is in droplets....COVID is partially aerosolized we know now.  Masks probably do a better job of stopping the flu as a result than COVID.
b. For the same reason distancing helps.  The distances for droplet transmission are smaller than aerosolized
c. The biggest change in culture has been if you feel sick stay home.  In the past I've caught flu from colleagues coming into work sick because of presenteeism (e.g. it's the flu...no big deal), kids being dropped off at school sick because parents have to work, on an airline flight from someone sick of the flu sitting right next to me
d. Most kids were out of school.  Flu hits kids harder and the schools are a breeding ground for flu.  Now, even if the kids are back in school their temp is being taken and they wear masks.

That said, given flu hits the young and elderly particularly hard, one thing I think we should keep is stay home (and keep your kids home) if you are sick....drop the masks, distancing, and mass testing.  Maybe during a hard flu season introduce back in temp screenings at schools but that's really as far as I'd go.  Viruses are part of our life.  They are part of human history.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Whatever.  Any comments on me and my life now go into the Grace/Hound ad hominem cheap shot bucket.


Neither Hound nor I were engaging in ads.  We weren't trying to rebut any argument.  We were expressing surprise at the extremism you expressed.

As for cheap shots, those were very mild as far as they come and well within the bounds of legitimate criticism: you have an authoritarian streak, you singled out 2 year olds.  Looks like some of the criticism is hitting a little close to home.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The other view is that the primary impact of mandates is through cultural shift.  It gradually became impolite to not wear a mask.  Conversely, when you repeal the mandate, the opposite behavioral change takes time, too.
> 
> A change with a 4 month phase in and 4 month phase out is harder to capture in statistics.  So the data for mandates will be weaker than the data for masks- whether or not mandates ultimately work.


Definitely true of places like Los Angeles or Texas.  Much less true of Spain which has a hard medical mask mandate enforced by police.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a. Flu is in droplets....COVID is partially aerosolized we know now.  Masks probably do a better job of stopping the flu as a result than COVID.
> b. For the same reason distancing helps.  The distances for droplet transmission are smaller than aerosolized
> c. The biggest change in culture has been if you feel sick stay home.  In the past I've caught flu from colleagues coming into work sick because of presenteeism (e.g. it's the flu...no big deal), kids being dropped off at school sick because parents have to work, on an airline flight from someone sick of the flu sitting right next to me
> d. Most kids were out of school.  Flu hits kids harder and the schools are a breeding ground for flu.  Now, even if the kids are back in school their temp is being taken and they wear masks.
> ...


Oh and e.  The other thing we know now is that surface transmission of COVID is very minimal.  I don't think that's true of flu, particularly in the schools.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 8, 2021)

Yikes!  The Ontario-Michigan area of the continent is getting hit hard.  Other areas around that region like Illinois and Quebec have begun an uptick too.



			https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirustracker/


----------



## watfly (Apr 8, 2021)

Why are we even still arguing about masks?  The current evidence strongly supports the fact that vaccines are more effective than masks (plus you don't have to worry about the proper use of vaccines like you do with masks).  If you truly believe that your personal behavior puts the public at significant risk for Covid and you believe you have a personal obligation to protect the public, then get a vaccine (if you don't have any health issues that would you preclude you from doing so).  Otherwise you should probably consider shutting the F up because you've lost any moral high ground to tell other people how live their lives in terms of Covid.

I couldn't care less whether you wear masks or get a vaccine, that's your choice.   I'm perfectly capable of staying 6 feet away from you in public, or not, and being personally accountable for my own behavior.  Peace.


----------



## texanincali (Apr 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Whatever.  Any comments on me and my life now go into the Grace/Hound ad hominem cheap shot bucket.


Wasn’t meant to be a cheap shot.  I am genuinely curious how someone who bangs the mask drum so loud doesn’t also bang the vaccine drum.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Sounds like good advice?
> 
> The problem is, they say they don't know if masks actually work.
> 
> ...


What the hell is pre-symptomatic?  Lol!!  Can you say amplification.  Fraudsters.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 8, 2021)

texanincali said:


> Wasn’t meant to be a cheap shot.  I am genuinely curious how someone who bangs the mask drum so loud doesn’t also bang the vaccine drum.


For public policy, I am in favor of both.

Until this is over, we should have both mask mandates and vaccine passports.

So, those who are vaccinated should be allowed to have a drink at the local bar.  Those who are not vaccinated should not be allowed.

One more of those "life isn't fair" moments.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 8, 2021)

texanincali said:


> Wasn’t meant to be a cheap shot.  I am genuinely curious how someone who bangs the mask drum so loud doesn’t also bang the vaccine drum.


I honestly believe the reason is once vaccinated he has no excuse not to go back in class and teach.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> What the hell is pre-symptomatic?  Lol!!  Can you say amplification.  Fraudsters.


Well, it actually looks from a few studies that asymptomatics don't do a very good job of spreading it.  That means the entire mask thing to stop asymptomatic spread is stupid.  Really the real issue is: a) assholes who don't feel well and go out sick anyway, some for otherwise "good" reasons like losing your job or your income (and some not so good reasons like missing out on a vacation), and b) presymptomatics (which seem to be about 24 hours before the onset of symptoms).  Presymptomatics aren't really 100% presymptomatic....by that time you are feeling a tingle in your throat or a congestion, or your smell has gone out.....the problem is: 1) people aren't very good about reading their own symptoms ("it's allergies!") and 2) they like to convince themselves they aren't really falling sick when really they are.  I really wouldn't be surprised if viruses have evolved over the centuries to encourage this response in us.


----------



## tenacious (Apr 9, 2021)

Sorry America...









						New York City’s suicide mission should alarm the entire nation
					

The willful destruction of our nation’s greatest city is not an accident. Rather, it is the cumulative effect of progressive policies that may soon wash up on your shores.




					thehill.com


----------



## dad4 (Apr 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well, it actually looks from a few studies that asymptomatics don't do a very good job of spreading it.  That means the entire mask thing to stop asymptomatic spread is stupid.  Really the real issue is: a) assholes who don't feel well and go out sick anyway, some for otherwise "good" reasons like losing your job or your income (and some not so good reasons like missing out on a vacation), and b) presymptomatics (which seem to be about 24 hours before the onset of symptoms).  Presymptomatics aren't really 100% presymptomatic....by that time you are feeling a tingle in your throat or a congestion, or your smell has gone out.....the problem is: 1) people aren't very good about reading their own symptoms ("it's allergies!") and 2) they like to convince themselves they aren't really falling sick when really they are.  I really wouldn't be surprised if viruses have evolved over the centuries to encourage this response in us.


What?  I thought it was all about individual choice.  If someone is feeling sick and chooses to go out to their local restaurant, that is their personal medical choice and you have no right to question their private medical decision.   The fact that five other people got sick is irrelevant, because it’s all inevitable anyway.  I mean, virus gonna virus, right?  How dare you step on my freedom!


----------



## dad4 (Apr 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I honestly believe the reason is once vaccinated he has no excuse not to go back in class and teach.


Grace- this is an example of attacking the person instead of the argument.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What?  I thought it was all about individual choice.  If someone is feeling sick and chooses to go out to their local restaurant, that is their personal medical choice and you have no right to question their private medical decision.   The fact that five other people got sick is irrelevant, because it’s all inevitable anyway.  I mean, virus gonna virus, right?  How dare you step on my freedom!


One of your issues is you lack a distinction between government coercion (which is force) and good manners/individual responsibility. The solution to “people are jerks” is not always “well let’s force them not to be”. It’s why you have this closet authoritarian streak.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Based on the experience of the last year or so -- masks work, but mask mandates don't.


An immune system works a lot better.  That's why you're still around.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> One is a broad public health measure to reduce the spread of disease.
> 
> The other is an ad hominem cheap shot from two people who ran out of logical arguments.
> 
> If the local restaurant wants to know whether I am vaccinated, I am happy to follow their rules.


No one has been "vaccinated".  But you're not worried about the make up and function of the current shots.  You're about case numbers driven by unprecedented PCR testing.  Your arguments started out lacking logic when you ignored the history of infectious diseases and public policy.  You socialist are not hard to spot.  This is not a cheap shot.  You should own it.  Eugene Genovese, a socialist himself, said it best about you people:

_*Reflecting here on moral responsibility,  I have referred to "we." For it has never occurred to me that the moral responsibility falls much less heavily on those of us on the American left than it fell on Comrade Stalin and those who replicated his feats in one country after another. And I am afraid that some of that moral responsibility falls on the "democratic socialists," "radical democrats," and other left wingers who endlessly denounced Stalinism but could usually be counted on to support— "critically," of course—the essentials of our political line on world and national affairs.*_


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> For public policy, I am in favor of both.
> 
> Until this is over, we should have both mask mandates and vaccine passports.
> 
> ...


If life isn't fair, why do you advocate for making it more unfair by shutting down business, healthcare, disallowing the elderly and their children to say goodbye before they die, etc.  Spare us your evil masquerading as wisdom.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> No dog in this fight but I have to wonder- where is all the flu? Is it a result of masks and distancing, people not getting tested for fear of getting covid, or?? Thoughts?


The flu went to the same place that cancer and heart disease went to.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 9, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> If life isn't fair, why do you advocate for making it more unfair by shutting down business, healthcare, disallowing the elderly and their children to say goodbye before they die, etc.  Spare us your evil masquerading as wisdom.


Life is unfair either way.

It can be unfair because hundreds of thousands of people catch a fatal disease.

It can be unfair because some people get to go out for dinner and some don't.

Of the two options, the vaccine passport looks like the lesser burden.

-Dr. Evil


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Grace- this is an example of attacking the person instead of the argument.


Oh please. 

You get on your high horse and tell people they just don't understand math and shouldn't bother discussing stuff with you because you know math and they don't. 

So you do that frequently. 

Then and this is a good one...you claim to be all about the math. 

You FEEL it is irresponsible for a 2 yr old to be on a plane. 

The data put out by the CDC shows kids are at zero risk. And we know they are not spreaders. 

That is the data. 

And when called on that you go silent...because apparently the way you FEEL is more relevant vs actual data. 

You jump all over the place changing goalposts. 

The one thing that doesn't change is your authoritarian streak for shutting down stuff you think shouldn't be open.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Of the two options, the vaccine passport looks like the lesser burden.


Papers to travel and enter and do certain things? 

Authoritarian again.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Life is unfair either way.
> 
> It can be unfair because hundreds of thousands of people catch a fatal disease.
> 
> ...


That's a good Socialist response.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 9, 2021)

Thought of the day.

“The Government must now make up its mind whether the vaccines are effective in reducing hospitalizations and deaths, or not. If they are effective, then the restrictions on our lives are unnecessary and should be lifted. If they are not effective, then they should still be lifted, because in that case we are going to have to live with periodic surges of Covid-19, for the only alternative is to prolong the current assault on our humanity indefinitely.”


----------



## watfly (Apr 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Thought of the day.
> 
> “The Government must now make up its mind whether the vaccines are effective in reducing hospitalizations and deaths, or not. If they are effective, then the restrictions on our lives are unnecessary and should be lifted. If they are not effective, then they should still be lifted, because in that case we are going to have to live with periodic surges of Covid-19, for the only alternative is to prolong the current assault on our humanity indefinitely.”


I think the vast majority of citizens have moved on, the government is fooling itself if it thinks citizens are still listening to the governments' directions.  Other than the most fearful, everyone else is capable of making cost/benefit decisions and can see the folly of the government mandates at this stage of the pandemic.  Even the majority of the compromised understand that its there own personal behaviors that put them at the greatest risk.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Grace- this is an example of attacking the person instead of the argument.


While it is a slam (and a pretty good one at that...the slam itself is in a grey area between just being mean and legit criticism), he isn't rebutting an argument.  He's putting forth an explanation which is a head scratcher to many of us....you've been really pro masks and pro vaccine passport, so many of us are wondering why you haven't touted your vaccine and how easy it went and urged others to follow your example.

I'll double down on this.  I just got my vaccine (Pfizer).  Was sick as a dog for 20 or so hours including nausea, vomiting and fever.  It's not that uncommon from what I've understood among people who've had Covid.  I did this despite being mRNA skeptical and at the current time would not vaccinate my kids and not supporting vaccine passports.  I think adults should get there's for the simple sake of making all this end.

Your turn, should you want to take it.......


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Oh please.
> 
> You get on your high horse and tell people they just don't understand math and shouldn't bother discussing stuff with you because you know math and they don't.
> 
> ...


He's an "N".  They are all about the intuition and the feeling.  They just use the data to justify that intuition and feeling.   Not a real "data" guy.  Sometimes it works really great and they can be fearsome because they can see things others can't, but it requires the person to be very self-critical and self-aware.  Don't want to be accused of slamming him, but you can connect the dots from there.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> I think the vast majority of citizens have moved on, the government is fooling itself if it thinks citizens are still listening to the governments' directions.  Other than the most fearful, everyone else is capable of making cost/benefit decisions and can see the folly of the government mandates at this stage of the pandemic.  Even the majority of the compromised understand that its there own personal behaviors that put them at the greatest risk.


I agree, but don't underestimate that there's a significant portion of the population (our own dad4 just being a relatively small and not too extreme example of it) that's terrified.  My folks, despite being fully vaccinated, are some others...they are going out now but only in full N95s and flinch any time someone sneezes or coughs.   My son's friend (who is still not being let out to socialize and hasn't left the house in over a year and isn't allowed a private phone or xbox) is another, despite both parents being vaccinated J&J.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I agree, but don't underestimate that there's a significant portion of the population (our own dad4 just being a relatively small and not too extreme example of it) that's terrified.


My brother in law being one of them. 

They came out from CA (bro and sis in law). I bet my wife that when they pull in they are wearing a mask in the car. They were. 

I asked why? I said you guys are married, live together, don't wear masks in the house (that I know of), and you are not stopping anywhere on the journey to our place. They didn't have a rational answer. 

They are scared.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> My brother in law being one of them.
> 
> They came out from CA (bro and sis in law). I bet my wife that when they pull in they are wearing a mask in the car. They were.
> 
> ...


Dad4 is scared too.


----------



## watfly (Apr 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I agree, but don't underestimate that there's a significant portion of the population (our own dad4 just being a relatively small and not too extreme example of it) that's terrified.  My folks, despite being fully vaccinated, are some others...they are going out now but only in full N95s and flinch any time someone sneezes or coughs.   My son's friend (who is still not being let out to socialize and hasn't left the house in over a year and isn't allowed a private phone or xbox) is another, despite both parents being vaccinated J&J.


Wow, I feel incredibly bad for that kid.  I'm all for families making the decisions they think is best for them but that family has no perspective IMO.  I personally think that's abusive, but its their choice.

I guess I live in a different environment because I'm not seeing this significant population that is terrified among my family, friends, acquaintances, employees, associates and community.   Other than Dad4 and the examples you cite I haven't heard of anyone that terrified.  I have a couple Facebook friends that are a little over the top, but they appear to be virtue signaling more than anything else.

In San Diego people seem to be exercising common sense in public but they don't appear to be hiding.  Granted I guess I really wouldn't know if someone is hiding.


----------



## watfly (Apr 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'll double down on this.  I just got my vaccine (Pfizer).  Was sick as a dog for 20 or so hours including nausea, vomiting and fever.  It's not that uncommon from what I've understood among people who've had Covid.  I did this despite being mRNA skeptical and at the current time would not vaccinate my kids and not supporting vaccine passports.  I think adults should get there's for the simple sake of making all this end.


That sucks.  1st shot or 2nd shot?  I got my first Moderna shot and no real side effects other than I was really tired a couple days later but not sure the shot was the cause.  A little anxious about my second shot as it seems that is when the adverse effects are most common.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> That sucks.  1st shot or 2nd shot?  I got my first Moderna shot and no real side effects other than I was really tired a couple days later but not sure the shot was the cause.  A little anxious about my second shot as it seems that is when the adverse effects are most common.


1st but apparently for people who have had covid it is like they are getting a 2nd.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> Wow, I feel incredibly bad for that kid.  I'm all for families making the decisions they think is best for them but that family has no perspective IMO.  I personally think that's abusive, but its their choice.
> 
> I guess I live in a different environment because I'm not seeing this significant population that is terrified among my family, friends, acquaintances, employees, associates and community.   Other than Dad4 and the examples you cite I haven't heard of anyone that terrified.  I have a couple Facebook friends that are a little over the top, but they appear to be virtue signaling more than anything else.
> 
> In San Diego people seem to be exercising common sense in public but they don't appear to be hiding.  Granted I guess I really wouldn't know if someone is hiding.


He's got a bee peanut allergy and asthma which is how they justify the fear to themselves.  We know that asthma isn't a particularly high risk particularly among young people but then they don't allow him on the internet for fear of finding porn, the xbox for fear of getting warped by violence or social media for fear of being abducted, so there's that.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 9, 2021)

Forgive me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the Survival Rate OC C19 somewhere above 98%?  Using the thee “fatal disease” for something with such a high survival rate seems like an exaggeration.

I had my 1st Pfizer shot over a week ago.  Definitely felt lethargic for about 48 hours but that was about it.  Only a handful of people I know had zero reaction to the 2nd shot, so I plan on getting hit with the 24hr bug when I go back.


----------



## watfly (Apr 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 1st but apparently for people who have had covid it is like they are getting a 2nd.


I heard an "expert", Harvard I think, on the news a couple weeks ago who was not in favor of those who had Covid getting the vaccine due to potential adverse reactions.  At least at this point until further research can be done.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> I heard an "expert", Harvard I think, on the news a couple weeks ago who was not in favor of those who had Covid getting the vaccine due to potential adverse reactions.  At least at this point until further research can be done.


Yeah, issue with me though is it's more than a year plus and they (still!) don't know how long immunity carries.  Coach's wife also had the same experience as did a friend who is an EMT.

The other strange thing they've been hearing (and it's definitely the case with me too) is that the symptoms pass quite suddenly at some point....one minute you are puking, the other minute you feel right as rain.  Bit of an exaggeration but not too far off.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 9, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Forgive me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the Survival Rate OC C19 somewhere above 98%?  Using the thee “fatal disease” for something with such a high survival rate seems like an exaggeration.
> 
> I had my 1st Pfizer shot over a week ago.  Definitely felt lethargic for about 48 hours but that was about it.  Only a handful of people I know had zero reaction to the 2nd shot, so I plan on getting hit with the 24hr bug when I go back.


You are listening to too many right wing fringe sites if you think "survival rate" is used for measuring covid.

The term is used for things like cancer, where death is the normal outcome and survival is the exception.


----------



## watfly (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are listening to too many right wing fringe sites if you think "survival rate" is used for measuring covid.
> 
> The term is used for things like cancer, where death is the normal outcome and survival is the exception.


Fair enough.  The mortality rate is somewhere less than 2%.  Fixed it.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> Fair enough.  The mortality rate is somewhere less than 2%.  Fixed it.


The most recent thinking has the ifr around .15%  The CDC had it at .2%, though recently revised its numbers upward ranging from .2% for Utah to 2% for Connecticut.  This is also a problem where the micro. and macro analysis diverge.  On a micro level, if you are under 65, the virus isn't that big of a deal and is equivalent to a bad flu....you are overwhelmingly likely to survive it so why worry.  However, because it's so infectious, if you have to calculate that number against the world population, it's a huge number dead.  Throw in that only certain people are actually really vulnerable to the thing and it was also going to be a bad result where people disagreed given that the risk is not spread around evenly.  



			https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, issue with me though is it's more than a year plus and they (still!) don't know how long immunity carries.  Coach's wife also had the same experience as did a friend who is an EMT.
> 
> The other strange thing they've been hearing (and it's definitely the case with me too) is that the symptoms pass quite suddenly at some point....one minute you are puking, the other minute you feel right as rain.  Bit of an exaggeration but not too far off.


Yeah.  A bit exaggerated.  My whole family had COVID and recovered over Christmas and New Years 2020.  No fever, no puking.  Mostly fatigue and some head and body aches.  Had the flu much worse than wimpy COVID symptoms.  I worked the whole time.  Miss IZ just refused to be sick.  The kids slept and ate, binged netflix, Fortnight, and Air Bender, rinse and repeat.  My son traveled to Hawaii after quarantine and a negative PCR 5 days prior to travel.  Had an epic time with family and friends.  Surfed, sailed, hiked all the non-tourist trails, zip lined Kahuku and watched the waves at Sunset Beach and Waimea while slurping some Matsumoto's Shave Ice.  C'mon people.  Live!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> it's a huge number dead.


Compared to what number(s)?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are listening to too many right wing fringe sites if you think "survival rate" is used for measuring covid.
> 
> The term is used for things like cancer, where death is the normal outcome and survival is the exception.


Don't be confused.  Fauci is.   Hook'em Horns!


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Compared to what number(s)?


Depends how you want to measure it.  Compared to zero it's a huge number if you slice it against total world population (it's also BTW a lot of random 40 year olds cut down in the prime of their life, even though overwhelmingly 40 year olds will be just fine).  You can also take it by years of life expectancy lost, in which case the number is much much smaller.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It can be unfair because hundreds of thousands of people catch a fatal disease.


Ok...so you weren’t referring to Covid in this post, correct?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 9, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Ok...so you weren’t referring to Covid in this post, correct?


I love Dad4's eloquent ignorance.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 9, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Yeah.  A bit exaggerated.  My whole family had COVID and recovered over Christmas and New Years 2020.  No fever, no puking.  Mostly fatigue and some head and body aches.  Had the flu much worse than wimpy COVID symptoms.  I worked the whole time.  Miss IZ just refused to be sick.  The kids slept and ate, binged netflix, Fortnight, and Air Bender, rinse and repeat.  My son traveled to Hawaii after quarantine and a negative PCR 5 days prior to travel.  Had an epic time with family and friends.  Surfed, sailed, hiked all the non-tourist trails, zip lined Kahuku and watched the waves at Sunset Beach and Waimea while slurping some Matsumoto's Shave Ice.  C'mon people.  Live!!


That’s da kine.  I was talking about the shot. Was sick for 20 hours or so.

 With actual covid I almost landed in the hospital day 10 when my oxygen level dropped and I was having trouble breathing but the doc gave me a bunch a predisone and I was out of trouble by the next day. I was sick about 30 days and then had so longer term health issues which only resolved around Christmas. My kid was sick 2 days but developed some breathing problems which lasted a few months...fine now.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 10, 2021)

SCC cases are about double what they were a month ago.   Yesterday/s number was at 13.5/100k.  That puts us in the red zone, even with the new breakpoints.

Trying to figure out how far this goes before vaccines bring it back down.

We’ve got indoor dining and schools open.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s da kine.  I was talking about the shot. Was sick for 20 hours or so.
> 
> With actual covid I almost landed in the hospital day 10 when my oxygen level dropped and I was having trouble breathing but the doc gave me a bunch a predisone and I was out of trouble by the next day. I was sick about 30 days and then had so longer term health issues which only resolved around Christmas. My kid was sick 2 days but developed some breathing problems which lasted a few months...fine now.


Good to hear you and the kid are doing better.  88 year old friend of ours was touch and go for the first three days of COVID.  He has an underlying ♡ condition but Prednisone sorted him out too.


----------



## whatithink (Apr 10, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Forgive me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the Survival Rate OC C19 somewhere above 98%?  Using the thee “fatal disease” for something with such a high survival rate seems like an exaggeration.
> 
> I had my 1st Pfizer shot over a week ago.  Definitely felt lethargic for about 48 hours but that was about it.  Only a handful of people I know had zero reaction to the 2nd shot, so I plan on getting hit with the 24hr bug when I go back.


I've had both Pfizer shots, no reaction to the first and a little tired after the second, but I also had a really late night that day so that could equally have been the cause of my lethargy.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 10, 2021)

246 Fully Vaccinated People in Michigan Test Positive for COVID-19; 3 Dead

_Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive, said the shots “are some of the best vaccines that we have.”

“We’ve now got vaccines that are over 95 percent effective. And even if you do get COVID-19, and once you’ve had a vaccine, it is highly unlikely that you will be hospitalized or die,” she said._


We are born with immune systems that are over 98 percent more effective than any vaccine.


----------



## espola (Apr 10, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> 246 Fully Vaccinated People in Michigan Test Positive for COVID-19; 3 Dead
> 
> _Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive, said the shots “are some of the best vaccines that we have.”
> 
> ...


You never were any good with percentages.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 11, 2021)

Just in case someone believes BIZ‘s comment on vaccines, 

Michigan has had 3 vaccinated people die from covid.
Michigan has had 17,960 non-vaccinated people die from covid.

BIZ is having trouble understanding which one is the larger risk.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 11, 2021)

espola said:


> You never were any good with percentages.


You’re still alive.  What did I miss?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just in case someone believes BIZ‘s comment on vaccines,
> 
> Michigan has had 3 vaccinated people die from covid.
> Michigan has had 17,960 non-vaccinated people die from covid.
> ...





dad4 said:


> Just in case someone believes BIZ‘s comment on vaccines,
> 
> Michigan has had 3 vaccinated people die from covid.
> Michigan has had 17,960 non-vaccinated people die from covid.
> ...


Lol!  I thought you were a case guy.  But thanks for showing Statspola where I got the 98% from.  MI.’s alleged non-vax deaths is 2% of the cases.  I can’t wait for you to post that most of the non-vax deaths were pre-vax.  Then we can circle back to the efficacy of lockdowns and find what survival rate?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just in case someone believes BIZ‘s comment on vaccines,
> 
> Michigan has had 3 vaccinated people die from covid.
> Michigan has had 17,960 non-vaccinated people die from covid.
> ...


This isn’t necessarily great news. 3 dead despite full vaccination isn’t going to exactly inspire confidence even though given how aggressively us counts deaths it was always likely.

lots of bad vaccine news out there. Europe says Johnson & Johnson might have same blood clot issue as az.  Chinas vaccine effectiveness is low. South Africa variant might breakthrough Pfizer.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 11, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Lol!  I thought you were a case guy.  But thanks for showing Statspola where I got the 98% from.  MI.’s alleged non-vax deaths is 2% of the cases.  I can’t wait for you to post that most of the non-vax deaths were pre-vax.  Then we can circle back to the efficacy of lockdowns and find what survival rate?


Don’t blame your 98% garbage number on me.  

Watfly had the right way to count risk.  CFR or IFR.  

CFR of 2% is bad.  Think of it as an airplane:  250 people got on an airplane.  5 of them.  But that’s a 98% survival rate, so it’s all ok.

 ”survival rate” just means you don’t want to talk about the half a million Americans who died from covid.

Probably should be using IFR anyway.


----------



## espola (Apr 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Don’t blame your 98% garbage number on me.
> 
> Watfly had the right way to count risk.  CFR or IFR.
> 
> ...


He wants to talk about the human immune system, but apparently misses the fact that vaccines work by making the immune system better prepared for the targeted infection.  Or maybe he is just rationalizing a fear of needles.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 11, 2021)

Was reading this just as I saw Grace's post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-vaccine-efficacy-not-high-gao/2021/04/11/dafe3ab6-9a8f-11eb-8f0a-3384cf4fb399_story.html#click=[URL]https://t.co/qNoHmnknSz[/URL]


----------



## watfly (Apr 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> CFR of 2% is bad.  Think of it as an airplane:  250 people got on an airplane.  5 of them.  But that’s a 98% survival rate, so it’s all ok.


That's incredibly misleading.  250 get on a plane.  25 get sick.  Odds are no one dies, but it depends on the age distribution.  Hopefully 250 sick people aren't allowed on a plane.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Don’t blame your 98% garbage number on me.


I'm not.  You posted the number of MI. deaths at 17k+ which I fact checked along with the MI. number of cases, 820K.  The survival rate just is what it is 



dad4 said:


> Watfly had the right way to count risk.  CFR or IFR.
> 
> CFR of 2% is bad.  Think of it as an airplane:  250 people got on an airplane.  5 of them.  But that’s a 98% survival rate, so it’s all ok.


No, it's not okay.  It just means that 5 mask didn't work.  I knew you would circle back to the efficacy of mask and social distancing policies.



dad4 said:


> ”survival rate” just means you don’t want to talk about the half a million Americans who died from covid.


Lol!  That was your deal from the get go Mr. P-value.  Your hysteria was case driven, not death driven.



dad4 said:


> Probably should be using IFR anyway.


Why?  How does that change your false narrative?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> That's incredibly misleading.  250 get on a plane.  25 get sick.  Odds are no one dies, but it depends on the age distribution.  Hopefully 250 sick people aren't allowed on a plane.


Dad4 is stepping all over his religious beliefs in the infallibility of mask and social distancing.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 11, 2021)

espola said:


> He wants to talk about the human immune system, but apparently misses the fact that vaccines work by making the immune system better prepared for the targeted infection.  Or maybe he is just rationalizing a fear of needles.


Coocoo


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 12, 2021)

watfly said:


> I think the vast majority of citizens have moved on, the government is fooling itself if it thinks citizens are still listening to the governments' directions.  Other than the most fearful, everyone else is capable of making cost/benefit decisions and can see the folly of the government mandates at this stage of the pandemic.  Even the majority of the compromised understand that its there own personal behaviors that put them at the greatest risk.


Businesses are setting policy based off government directions. People’s right to access those businesses or be employed at those businesses is solely dependent on complying with those directives. Masks, distancing and other measures are still in full force all around the world. Nothing partisan about it, just science.


----------



## watfly (Apr 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Businesses are setting policy based off government directions. People’s right to access those businesses or be employed at those businesses is solely dependent on complying with those directives. Masks, distancing and other measures are still in full force all around the world. Nothing partisan about it, just science.


Nothing like continuing to ride a dead horse.  While I'm a fan of science, I'm a bigger fan of reality.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 12, 2021)

watfly said:


> Nothing like continuing to ride a dead horse.  While I'm a fan of science, I'm a bigger fan of reality.


So partisan fantasyland it is.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So partisan fantasyland it is.





Hüsker Dü said:


> Nothing partisan about it, just science.


Lol!


----------



## watfly (Apr 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So partisan fantasyland it is.


I bet they have an awesome beer garden.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 12, 2021)

"However, the South American nation is primarily using the CoronaVac vaccine, made by Chinese pharma giant Sinovac, which a University of Chile study found was only 3 per cent effective after the first dose, rising to 56.5 per cent two weeks after the second."









						Why nations relying on China's Covid jabs are at risk of more waves
					

Experts told MailOnline the spiralling crisis in Chile should send a warning to the rest of the world that Chinese-made jabs are too weak to halt the spread of the virus, even with a successful rollout.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "However, the South American nation is primarily using the CoronaVac vaccine, made by Chinese pharma giant Sinovac, which a University of Chile study found was only 3 per cent effective after the first dose, rising to 56.5 per cent two weeks after the second."
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Solves that mystery. Further points to why, unless you are going to exclude certain vaccines and make people revaccinate with Pfizer or moderna, vaccine passports will be of limited utility worldwide.  China also quadruple f d the world by not being transparent about its vaccine data...first covering up the outbreak itself, then covertly buying up the Ppe, then shutting its own internal travel but letting people leave internationally and now this.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 13, 2021)

Fda is calling a pause in Johnson and Johnson vaccine after blood clot issue in 6 women out of some millions of doses.  The pause is to do a reeval after which my guess will be they’ll say “all good” with some new protocols. But the damage will have been done by then. 40% of the marines have refused the vaccine. Just when we are reaching the end of those who absolutely want it the vaccine and getting to the more hesitant this is very bad messaging.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fda is calling a pause in Johnson and Johnson vaccine after blood clot issue in 6 women out of some millions of doses.  The pause is to do a reeval after which my guess will be they’ll say “all good” with some new protocols. But the damage will have been done by then. 40% of the marines have refused the vaccine. Just when we are reaching the end of those who absolutely want it the vaccine and getting to the more hesitant this is very bad messaging.


The EUA protects big pharma from lawsuits.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 13, 2021)

'One in a Million:' Critics Blast FDA's J&J Vaccine 'Pause' as Potentially Deadly Overreaction
					

Complexities and Risk.




					townhall.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 13, 2021)

"In the race to save lives from the novel coronavirus, the United States and Britain are winning. A stunning 47 percent of UK residents and 36 percent of US residents have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Compare that with the European Union, where only 15 percent of the population has gotten at least one jab. "

-

"Looking back, French President Emannuel Macron admits, “We didn’t shoot for the stars. That should be a lesson. We were wrong to lack ambition, to lack the madness . . . to say: ‘It’s possible, let’s do it.’ ”











						Europe’s vax disaster shows Trump, UK’s BoJo got biggest COVID challenge right
					

In the race to save lives from the novel coronavirus, the United States and Britain are winning. A stunning 47 percent of UK residents and 36 percent of US residents have received at least one dose…




					nypost.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 13, 2021)

I think it is concerning that Big Tech on their own are silencing certain voices based on certain topics/politics, etc.

It really isn't a good trend.

"I attended a public-policy roundtable hosted by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis last month. The point was to discuss the state’s Covid policies in the months ahead. That 600,000 Americans have died with Covid-19 is evidence that the lockdowns over the past year, including significant restrictions on the lives of children, haven’t worked. Florida reopened in May and declined to shut down again. Yet age-adjusted mortality is lower in Florida than in locked-down California, and Florida’s public schools are almost all open, while California’s aren’t.

My fellow panelists—Sunetra Gupta of Oxford, Martin Kulldorff of Harvard and Scott Atlas of Stanford—and I discussed a variety of topics. One was the wisdom of requiring children to wear masks. The press asked questions, and a video of the event was posted on YouTube by local media, including Tampa’s WTSP.

*But last week YouTube removed a recording of this routine policy discussion from its website. The company claimed my fellow panel members and I were trafficking in misinformation.* The company said it removed the video “because it included content that contradicts the consensus of local and global health authorities regarding the efficacy of masks to prevent the spread of COVID-19.”

*Yet the panelists are all experts, and all spoke against requiring children to wear masks. I can’t speak for my counterparts, but my reasoning was a cost-benefit analysis. The benefits of masking children are small to none; the costs are much higher."*









						Opinion | Masks for Children, Muzzles for Covid-19 News
					

In the guise of combating ‘misinformation,’ YouTube again censors scientific debate over pandemic policy.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 13, 2021)

I do like to keep bringing this up for people like @dad4 and other true believers. I know it is beating a dead horse...but beat it I will and that is because people and various gov institutions beat the drum on masks DESPITE actual evidence. If we are going to be subjected to rules, they should be based on DATA.

Studies over decades have shown masks don't do anything with influenza like illness.

Recently I posted a study from the EU version of the CDC saying that they cannot at this time show masks actually work.

And here is from the WHO in Dec who published their study/recommendations. They do recommend wearing masks. However when you read their documentation they have this to say regarding how effective masks are:

From Page 8

"Evidence on the protective effect of mask use in community settings

*At present there is only limited and inconsistent scientific evidence to support the effectiveness of masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2 (75).* A large randomized community-based trial in which 4862 healthy participants were divided into a group wearing medical/surgical masks and a control group *found no difference in infection *with SARS-CoV-2 (76). A recent systematic review found nine trials (of which eight were cluster-randomized controlled trials in which clusters of people, versus individuals, were randomized) comparing medical/surgical masks versus no masks to prevent the spread of viral respiratory illness. Two trials were with healthcare workers and seven in the community. *The review concluded that wearing a mask may make little or no difference to the prevention of influenza-like illness*."









						Advice on the use of masks in the community, during home care and in healthcare settings in the context of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
					

Interim guidance




					www.who.int


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 13, 2021)

YouTube keeps removing information people need about the virus, as we know, but now the _Wall Street Journal_, rather a significant platform, is blasting them for it.

The most recent example comes in the form of an article by Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford, who later this week will once again be my guest on the Tom Woods Show.

Bhattacharya writes about the panel of scientists advising Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, and the roundtable discussion they recently had that YouTube decided needed to be hidden from the public.

The other panelists were Sunetra Gupta of Oxford, Martin Kulldorff of Harvard and Scott Atlas of Stanford.

Writes Bhattacharya:

_But last week YouTube removed a recording of this routine policy discussion from its website. The company claimed my fellow panel members and I were trafficking in misinformation. The company said it removed the video "because it included content that contradicts the consensus of local and global health authorities regarding the efficacy of masks to prevent the spread of COVID-19."

Yet the panelists are all experts, and all spoke against requiring children to wear masks.

The scientific evidence is clear. Consider a study from Iceland conducted early in the epidemic when masking was uncommon. The study used a representative sample to track the source of Covid infections. The authors used contact-tracing methods paired with genetic sequencing analysis to establish precisely how the disease spread. The senior author of the study, Kari Stefansson, later told reporters that "even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents." Many studies in the scientific literature reach a similar conclusion: Even unmasked children pose less of a risk for disease spread than adults._

And he continues from there.

Bhattacharya has been a hero throughout the entire crisis, and has taken enormous abuse and been on the receiving end of wild accusations -- for example, that he must be in the pay of radical libertarians (as if one would need to be bribed in order to point out that lockdowns destroy lives).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This isn’t necessarily great news. 3 dead despite full vaccination isn’t going to exactly inspire confidence even though given how aggressively us counts deaths it was always likely.
> 
> lots of bad vaccine news out there. Europe says Johnson & Johnson might have same blood clot issue as az.  Chinas vaccine effectiveness is low. South Africa variant might breakthrough Pfizer.


And once those alleged vaccines are in your body there is no getting them out.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 13, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> . The senior author of the study, Kari Stefansson, later told reporters that "even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents." Many studies in the scientific literature reach a similar conclusion: Even unmasked children pose less of a risk for disease spread than adults.[/I]


I believe Biden made similar claims during a Town Hall meeting when addressing the question of a concerned parent and her young daughter.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 13, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I believe Biden made similar claims during a Town Hall meeting when addressing the question of a concerned parent and her young daughter.


And yet we have a variety of large cities where they don't have schools offering in person classes.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 13, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I believe Biden made similar claims during a Town Hall meeting when addressing the question of a concerned parent and her young daughter.


No doubt a gaff that was quickly censored.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 13, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Over 9 weeks in - less than 5 weeks for Osterholm's (he's a famous, well-respected epidemiologist who has given counsel to our president) prediction. Fortunately for everyone, it's not looking good for him.
> 
> View attachment 10527


Less than 4 weeks for Osterholm's prediction.


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Less than 4 weeks for Osterholm's prediction.
> 
> View attachment 10574


Just for you my friend from somewhere.  I can't control Crush today brother.  Lot's going on today and soon no one will be able to escape the truth! I know this Normal family really well. They obey because they were winning at the old game of life that had so many cheaters playing in the game that 98% of all court cases got settled before justice got served.  Camp Snoopy is closed for good and Camp Justice is now in business to deal with all the cheaters, liars, pedos, murderers and the like.  The old game is coming to a close ((thank God)).  It's interesting to watch this all fold out before our eyes and our brains K & S.  We must think with the brain and not emotionally.  Love you man


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)




----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

Ain't this the truth.  Same folks that started shit on FB in 2016 are the same fools yelling because of mask disobedience and not wanting to inject BG's poison.  WTHUP folks.  Game is almost over. Don't wait until it's too late, if you know what I mean


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

The D4NN ((Dad4 News Nonsense)) is going down the toilet like all BMs.....lol!!!!!


----------



## dad4 (Apr 14, 2021)

Why are people bothered when you fail to wear a mask, or attend an indoor gathering? 

Nothing to do with whether you "obey".  We don't glare at you for jaywalking, after all.

By refusing to follow basic public health advice, you increase the overall prevalence of the virus.  You're placing all of us in a viral environment.

Avoiding you does not solve the problem.  The problem is not the direct risk from you to me today.  

The problem is the overall amount of virus in the community.   And, whenever we make progress, an self-absorbed minority keeps throwing a lifeline to a plague that really ought to be dead by now.


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

Douglas C and those like him are going to be no more.  These losers are 98% of the reasons were in this mess in the first place.  Total control freaks who think they own the children they produce.  New game is coming soon


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why are people bothered when you fail to wear a mask, or attend an indoor gathering?
> 
> Nothing to do with whether you "obey".  We don't glare at you for jaywalking, after all.
> 
> ...


When, in your lifetime, were you ever not in a viral environment?  Speaking of dead.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> By refusing to follow basic public health advice, you increase the overall prevalence of the virus. You're placing all of us in a viral environment.


Follow basic public advice? You mean like masks in which they don't actually know they work? 

Or them saying even after getting a vaccine don't go out because they don't know? 

The onus is on them to KNOW these things before making advice. They shouldn't be restricting things if they really don't know what they are talking about.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 14, 2021)

Canada’s surge is now worse than their winter surge and they have more new cases per 100k than the us right now.


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Canada’s surge is now worse than their winter surge and they have more new cases per 100k than the us right now.


It's called Flu A and Flu B Gracie


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

Hey Daddy of 4, this is the true solution.  Clean up what's inside the body & soul first and live a clean & pure life on earth and you will have true abundance.  Earth is a planet marked for life, not death, war, division, hate race bait & even more destruction with fear as the weapon of evil.  What are you so afraid of sir?  I'm down to 182 btw.  I say this with a smile of accomplishment and some boasting, but boasting only to inspire every person who doesnt have crush ignored to flat out change.  I swear if you eat Veggie, Fruits, nuts and salads, you will lose a ton of toxic waste around the waste line and root chakra area.  My triple chin is no more.  I have six pack of abs now too.  I weigh way less now then when I got married.  When one changes like me, then the wifey notices that her man is a changed man and things get HOT!!!  Remember, HOT=Honest, Openness and Transparency. Dad, you are as cold as ice and that is a scary place to be bro.  Seriously, as a pal from socal, dont be caught COLD handed.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why are people bothered when you fail to wear a mask, or attend an indoor gathering?
> 
> Nothing to do with whether you "obey".  We don't glare at you for jaywalking, after all.
> 
> ...


It’s not even dead in Australia and New Zealand or Israel for that matter. The closer we get to this being over the more extreme your positions seem to be getting.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> When, in your lifetime, were you ever not in a viral environment?  Speaking of dead.


Depends on the virus.  They aren’t all the same.  I’ve seen a lot of colds.  Never met smallpox.

Look at the prescriptions from your side.   No masks, no vaccines, do all business in person, open everything.  Are there any anti-viral measures you don’t oppose?  

The annoying part is, if 20% of the country believes your nonsense, then there isn’t anything the rest of us can do to get rid of this disease.  You guys will act as a resevior.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Depends on the virus.  They aren’t all the same.  I’ve seen a lot of colds.  Never met smallpox.
> 
> Look at the prescriptions from your side.   No masks, no vaccines, do all business in person, open everything.  Are there any anti-viral measures you don’t oppose?
> 
> The annoying part is, if 20% of the country believes your nonsense, then there isn’t anything the rest of us can do to get rid of this disease.  You guys will act as a resevior.


"get rid of"....so your goalpost is now at zero COVID as the goal?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "get rid of"....so your goalpost is now at zero COVID as the goal?


The goalpost, as always, is sustained R<1.

Not _quite_ the same as eradication, as we are both aware.  But both fall into the category of "getting rid of" the virus.


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The goalpost, as always, is sustained R<1.
> 
> Not _quite_ the same as eradication, as we are both aware.  But both fall into the category of *"getting rid of"* the virus.


Or "*getting rid of"* those who lost 37 lbs in 12 months and think differently and have zero fear of death?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 14, 2021)

Took roughly 13 months, but even CNN is now starting to understand that a healthy lifestyle can reduce the impact of this “deadly disease” (not my words or those of the extremes right media outlets....)









						Reduce risk of severe Covid-19 with regular activity, study says
					

Physical inactivity is strongly associated with more severe Covid infection and a heightened risk of dying from the disease, found a large US study published online in the British Journal of Sports Medicine. Here's how to get more active, with just 22 minutes of daily movement.




					www.cnn.com
				




A few gems:

- The Kaiser Permanente study, published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, looked at nearly 50,000 adults with Covid-19. The research found that those who met the target of the US Department of Health and Human Services' physical activity guidelines -- of at least 150 minutes per week of moderate to vigorous physical activity -- showed significantly lower incidences of hospitalization, ICU admission and death due to Covid-19 illness.

- With all those benefits regular movement brings, it may not be that surprising that physical activity meeting these guidelines also would lessen the severity of symptoms of Covid-19. Indeed, acute Covid illness is just one of the many potential negative impacts of sedentary behavior, a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, stroke and some cancers.

To date, the risk factors for severe Covid-19, as identified by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, include being of advanced age, being male, and having underlying comorbidities, such as diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease.

Many of the listed risk factors are difficult — if not impossible — to mitigate, so it's understandable if you feel powerless in the face of some of them. However, the results of this new study could, arguably, add inactivity to the top of that list.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The goalpost, as always, is sustained R<1.
> 
> Not _quite_ the same as eradication, as we are both aware.  But both fall into the category of "getting rid of" the virus.


Well, with 40% of marines having refused the vaccine, the number of vaccine reluctant probably going up after J&J, people ready to move on from the restrictions now that soon almost everyone who wants a vaccine having gotten it, emergency authorization label still on the vaccines, children under 16 still ineligible, new variants that can break through the vaccines (however rare), even the mRNA vaccines not 100% effective, the border crisis (actually we seem to have 2 problem borders now for COVID) and most of the world not reaching substantial vaccination levels until 2022, it's going to be a tough haul.  Or we can worry about deaths and serious illnesses instead of cases.....


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

Listen up to those crippled with fear and those who practice fear to their little ones.  WTHUP!!!  Stop eating all that red meat & red wine and stop acting like you read up on everything about this BS virus that you know nothing about.  The gig was always up and the sheepish are always going to be sheepies.  I'm hear to WTF up to the sleeping Lions who have been napping on the job.  Lukewarm Lions are stupid and lazy and not using their strengths for good.  Not too late to get healthy and join the fight.  Time to wake up girls and boys.  Game on!!!


----------



## dad4 (Apr 14, 2021)

crush said:


> Or "*getting rid of"* those who lost 37 lbs in 12 months and think differently and have zero fear of death?


No.  

With 95% effective vaccines, there is plenty of flexibility for individuals to refuse the vaccine.  The country will get to herd immunity with or without putting a needle in crush.  

Congrats on the weight loss.  That isn’t easy to do.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 14, 2021)

O.K. this is a bit of a conspiracy theory, but it does kind of make you go hmmm.....a poster known as Ethical Skeptic has, based on the latest WHO news that there were several variants (15) already in circulation in January 2020 has been speculating that China has had a low level outbreak since the winter of 2018.  He points to the fact that it is unlikely that multiple variants could quickly develop from an emerging virus, along with that in 2018 China seems to have had an economic event that led to lower cell phone subscribers, a drop in Co2 and economic prosperity, and some secondary events in key Chinese trading partners and what seem to be high levels of immunity in those partners.  Why hasn't it been noticed before?  Because it potentially mutated along the way into something more severe.  Again, total conspiracy theory but one that does make you go  "hmmm".


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382385733638426627

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382345088290930690


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Depends on the virus.  They aren’t all the same.  I’ve seen a lot of colds.  Never met smallpox.
> 
> Look at the prescriptions from your side.   No masks, no vaccines, do all business in person, open everything.  Are there any anti-viral measures you don’t oppose?
> 
> The annoying part is, if 20% of the country believes your nonsense, then there isn’t anything the rest of us can do to get rid of this disease.  You guys will act as a resevior.


 If those measures work for 80% of the folks that believe your fact-less nonsense the 20% should be wiped out in no time.  Problem solved.  If the 20% is not wiped out, guess who the reservoir is?


----------



## watfly (Apr 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Took roughly 13 months, but even CNN is now starting to understand that a healthy lifestyle can reduce the impact of this “deadly disease” (not my words or those of the extremes right media outlets....)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Instead the media message was that we should hide in our homes.



Grace T. said:


> 'One in a Million:' Critics Blast FDA's J&J Vaccine 'Pause' as Potentially Deadly Overreaction
> 
> 
> Complexities and Risk.
> ...


OK so I gave Fauci the benefit of for a long time, but he said this morning the pause on the J&J vaccine would give people more confidence in the vaccine when it resumes.  Yeah, may be in the mind of those that live in a medical bubble, but couldn't be farther from the truth for the general public.  He is clueless.  Any Covid public policy duties he may still have should be removed. STAT.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 14, 2021)

watfly said:


> OK so I gave Fauci the benefit of for a long time, but he said this morning the pause on the J&J vaccine would give people more confidence in the vaccine when it resumes.  Yeah, may be in the mind of those that live in a medical bubble, but couldn't be farther from the truth for the general public.  He is clueless.  Any Covid public policy duties he may still have should be removed. STAT.


Been saying


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

watfly said:


> Instead the media message was that we should hide in our homes.
> 
> 
> OK so *I gave Fauci the benefit* of for a long time, but he said this morning the pause on the J&J vaccine would give people more confidence in the vaccine when it resumes.  Yeah, may be in the mind of those that live in a medical bubble, but couldn't be farther from the truth for the general public.  He is clueless.  Any Covid public policy duties he may still have should be removed. STAT.


Yes I know and it mad me go crazy inside my soul for the longest time because you seem like a fantastic dad and one who cares for his employees.  I truly mean that Wat Fly.  You have tremendous good in you   Now, we need to watch closely with our eyes and ears and make sure this never happens again.  Dr F was up to no good and his fake Dr BG is a joke.  Dude went out and bought up all the farm land as if we will allow him to cut our meat and pick our fruit and veggies.  Hell no!!!


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

Why is BG buying up all the farmland?
Why are you *buying* so much *farmland*?” posed by one Reddit user, *Mr* *Gee ((I wonder what he's really up too)) *indicated that *seed science *and *biofue*l development were major drivers of the acquisitions. *“My investment group chose to do this *((Ya right, and I'm sure you have great reasons why you were flying around and doing big non profit with Jeff and his pals )).


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 14, 2021)

This falls under the bad news thread.

Just like the post yesterday with the WSJ talking about Youtube taking down a video....here we have Twitter taking down someone who dared to criticize BLM and in specific one of the founders who has been running around spending millions on houses.

It is not good news when you have organizations controlling speech. FB, Twitter, Youtube are the biggest platforms in the world. If you get dinged there...you are effectively cut off. 

Not a good trend. 









						Jason Whitlock Gets Twitter Jail After Criticizing BLM for Buying Large Mansions
					

The Washington Examiner reports that sports journalist Jason Whitlock, who is black, has been cast into Twitter jail by its almost entirely white leadership after he criticized Black Lives Matter&#821...




					pjmedia.com


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This falls under the bad news thread.
> 
> Just like the post yesterday with the WSJ talking about Youtube taking down a video....here we have Twitter taking down someone who dared to criticize BLM and in specific one of the founders who has been running around spending millions on houses.
> 
> ...


This all started with the Normal family and the Know It All families.  You know, those with the means to get what they want first before others.  Now that they know they lost the game, Mr. Normal and his Sit Still and Look Pretty wife and Mr & Mrs Know It All need to make one last stand and go as low as humanly possible.  True loserville!!! It's poor sportsmanship where I come from at best


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why are people bothered when you fail to wear a mask, or attend an indoor gathering?
> 
> Nothing to do with whether you "obey".  We don't glare at you for jaywalking, after all.
> 
> ...


I admire you continuing to attempt to talk common sense in here. It’s a noble effort yet it is in vain. These fucks don’t care. Until it happens to them it ain’t a thing.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I admire you continuing to attempt to talk common sense in here. It’s a noble effort yet it is in vain. These fucks don’t care. Until it happens to them it ain’t a thing.


dad deals in fear. Cost / benefit? He is unaware of that as well. Advocates shutting biz and places down that scare him. 

Advocates masks, won't get his vaccine and go back to work. 

I think that is the gist of what he offers.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I admire you continuing to attempt to talk common sense in here. It’s a noble effort yet it is in vain. These fucks don’t care. Until it happens to them it ain’t a thing.


Not all in vain.  Every so often, someone has a strong point and I learn something.

Just have to learn to filter out the Breitbart nonsense that is 90% of the posts.

Why Hüsker Dü?  I haven't heard of them in years.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I admire you continuing to attempt to talk common sense in here. It’s a noble effort yet it is in vain. These fucks don’t care. Until it happens to them it ain’t a thing.


It did happen to me, thank you very much.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 14, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> dad deals in fear. Cost / benefit? He is unaware of that as well. Advocates shutting biz and places down that scare him.
> 
> Advocates masks, won't get his vaccine and go back to work.
> 
> I think that is the gist of what he offers.


A little harsh but yeah.  I mean he's shared his tournament hypocrisy, his not flying, his once a week take out, and he advocates for all of us sharing our vaccine status via vaccine passports, so if he's had it, I'm surprised he wouldn't just say "I've been vaccinated....it went great and it's a good idea for everyone....get yours today too", esp. considering many of us who have been skeptical have shared such info.


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Apr 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A little harsh but yeah.  I mean he's shared his tournament hypocrisy, his not flying, his once a week take out, and he advocates for all of us sharing our vaccine status via vaccine passports, so if he's had it, I'm surprised he wouldn't just say "I've been vaccinated....it went great and it's a good idea for everyone....get yours today too", esp. considering many of us who have been skeptical have shared such info.


I stopped talking about me when the two of you went ad hominem ad infinitem.  I thought I made that clear.

So, if you want to assume I am/am not vaccinated, go ahead.  But you will have to assume, since I have no intention of giving you fuel for your personal attacks.

In better company, I have no problem sharing that information.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I stopped talking about me when the two of you went ad hominem ad infinitem.  I thought I made that clear.
> 
> So, if you want to assume I am/am not vaccinated, go ahead.  But you will have to assume, since I have no intention of giving you fuel for your personal attacks.
> 
> In better company, I have no problem sharing that information.


Every choice (even a choice not to chose) is a choice.  Sorry but not saying you are vaccinated given your prior tournament stance and your stance on vaccine passports is actually giving fuel to the fire.  Your saying you are would remove that from the table.   I say this because I like you and I think even though you are very risk adverse and generally wrong about the real world operations of this thing, you are generally thoughtful and have a lot of good to say.

"In better company".  Ouch.  You are the one, remember, keeping company with espola, NOTF and Husker and have been a fellow traveler with EOTL.


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "In better company".  Ouch.  You are the one, remember, keeping company with espola, NOTF and Husker and have been a fellow traveler with EOTL.


I like to call Dad 4 comments like I read them....lol


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I admire you continuing to attempt to talk common sense in here. It’s a noble effort yet it is in vain. These fucks don’t care. Until it happens to them it ain’t a thing.


It has happened to me and my whole family.  100% infected, 100% recovered.  No vaccine required.  Yourʻre such a wimp.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I stopped talking about me when the two of you went ad hominem ad infinitem.  I thought I made that clear.
> 
> So, if you want to assume I am/am not vaccinated, go ahead.  But you will have to assume, since I have no intention of giving you fuel for your personal attacks.
> 
> In better company, I have no problem sharing that information.


The problem with your solutions is they just don't work in the real world.

For some it takes longer vs others to come to that realization.

You mentioned recently above it is the 20% or something that ruin the perfectly laid plans you have. It isn't 20% ruining it.

That is not reality.

This is reality...the public at large is done with it and has been for some time. 

"Even Democratic governors and lawmakers who supported tough stay-at-home orders and business closures to stem previous COVID-19 outbreaks say they're done with that approach. It's a remarkable turnaround for governors who have said from the beginning of the pandemic that they will follow the science in their decision-making, but it's also a nod to reality: *Another round of lockdown orders would likely just be ignored by a pandemic-weary public.*"

“I think *we have a real compliance issue* if we try to go back to the sort of restrictions that were in place in March and April of last year,” said Pennsylvania state Rep. Mike Zabel, a Democrat who had supported previous shutdown orders by Gov. Tom Wolf, a fellow Democrat. “*I don’t think there’s any appetite for that in Pennsylvania at all*.”

"public support has declined for shutting down businesses and limiting travel, according to the COVID States Project, which has surveyed public attitudes and behaviors since the pandemic began.



			More COVID state shutdowns unlikely, despite CDC suggestion


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 14, 2021)

When the "experts" tell you one thing, and their very own agency has studies saying another, is exactly why there is an increasing lack of trust in these people.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> It has happened to me and my whole family.  100% infected, 100% recovered.  No vaccine required.  Yourʻre such a wimp.


I think what he/she meant was more along the lines of until someone close to the nonbelievers gets really sick- nobody is saying you can't recover from COVID, that's just foolish. But there is no denying that it does completely flatten some with no rhyme nor reason.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 14, 2021)

I am constantly amazed at the amount of dead horse beating that goes on - how?!! Isn't it exhausting??


----------



## crush (Apr 14, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I am constantly amazed at the amount of *dead horse beating* that goes on - how?!! Isn't it exhausting??


It's called, "Fits of Rage."


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 15, 2021)

Oxford study shows Pfizer vaccine has a similar incidence of blood clotting as az vaccine.  Eu is taking under advisement whether need for a pause.  Given what the us has done with j&j if sustained as true I don’t know how we don’t either.


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

New study finds that the cheaters are about to cheat for the last time.  They want to pack the court so we have to wear a mask, take poison shots and STFU or else.  Total control freaks.  The freaks think they know what's best for you and me and they will do what cheaters always do, cheat their way to the top of power & control.  Sellers of Souls ((SOS)) are going to be toast!!!!


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

"More death, more death, more death!!!"  These Corona News Network hacks are sickos and total losers.  What makes people believe in fear, war, division, hate, race baiting and lying so much they speak that language?  What makes people kill kids before their even hatched and then sell their organs and body parts to the highest sicko?  Hearts go for big $$$ I'm told.  Some evil mad scientist sickos ask for this and that so they can do whatever the hell they want to the babies body parts. Hello, time to wake the FUOJJOTC!!! keep kids isolated, keeps kids from being free, keep kids locked down with stupid mask that makes zero sense for kids to have to wear except to make them scared or fearful.  I know some real smart folks who look real stupid today because they know now they got played.  The Q I ask is what are you going to do about being 100% wrong and played?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 15, 2021)

You gov poll finds confidence in safety of covid vaccines plunges 15 points from 52% to 37% after j&j pause.

my best guess (pure spitballing) is as a result, even with the removal of j&j shots, we are (subject to Pfizer being paused) 2 weeks away from vaccine glut happening.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oxford study shows Pfizer vaccine has a similar incidence of blood clotting as az vaccine.  Eu is taking under advisement whether need for a pause.  Given what the us has done with j&j if sustained as true I don’t know how we don’t either.


The panic porn news industry fuels this...along with the CDC and other governing bodies. 

We are looking at roughly 1 case per million doses. That is very safe. We wouldn't have Tylenol if we suspended it based on that standard. 

What we do see and do is the following. If you are pregnant or have this condition or X condition do not take this medication (or check with your doctor). Why do they do that? Because no medicine/vaccine out there will not create some bad side affect with someone. 

The difference is medicines/vaccines usually take years to get to the market. As such during testing they usually find out who should be careful, etc. 

With the covid vax it was rushed out over the world (for good reason). We are now finding them to be VERY safe BUT certain people with certain conditions may be better of either A) not taking the vaccine or B) taking one of the other vaccines. 

The press and CDC, etc are doing a disservice right now by highlighting extremely isolated cases AND talking about suspending certain vaxes.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The press and CDC, etc are doing a disservice right now by highlighting extremely isolated cases AND talking about suspending certain vaxes.


And keep this in mind as well.

"The CDC’s  Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or VAERS, shows that just for the flu vaccines given out each and every year, there are a large number of people recording significant issues.

According to the CDC, “Approximately 30,000 VAERS reports are filed annually, *with 10%-15% classified as serious (resulting in permanent disability, hospitalization, life-threatening illnesses or death).”*

And yet, no self-respecting CDC member or FDA member would suggest you not take a flu vaccine. Why is the J&J different? Indeed, it appears not just to be safe, but just as safe as the annual flu vaccine, if not safer."


----------



## watfly (Apr 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> We are looking at roughly 1 case per million doses. That is very safe. We wouldn't have Tylenol if we suspended it based on that standard.


As I saw one doctor say, doctors prescribe hundreds of other medicines everyday that have a much higher negative side effect rate including death than the J&J vaccine.  Birth control is just one.  Worst case, just put a pause on the vaccination for women.

How embarrassed are our ancestors of our 2020 fear of risk.  It's crazy how we have expanded government over the last few decades to limit risk to the lowest common denominator.  It not only encroaches on our freedoms but it drives up the cost of everything (without a commensurate level of return) because of gross overregulation.  Where in our Constitution does it say were entitled to a risk free life?  Give me the facts and let me decide.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> As I saw one doctor say, doctors prescribe hundreds of other medicines everyday that have a much higher negative side effect rate including death than the J&J vaccine.  Birth control is just one.  Worst case, just put a pause on the vaccination for women.
> 
> How embarrassed are our ancestors of our 2020 fear of risk.  It's crazy how we have expanded government over the last few decades to limit risk to the lowest common denominator.  It not only encroaches on our freedoms but it drives up the cost of everything (without a commensurate level of return) because of gross overregulation.  Where in our Constitution does it say were entitled to a risk free life?  Give me the facts and let me decide.


Your last paragraph is spot on.


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)




----------



## watfly (Apr 15, 2021)

Some food for thought based on San Diego County covid deaths.  My apologies to Dad4 for using survival rates.



MortalitySurvivalMortalitySurvivalRateRate% ofRateRateof Totalof TotalPopulationIf InfectedIf InfectedPopulationPopulation0-9 years13%0.00%​100.00%​0.00%​100.00%​10-19 years13%0.01%​99.99%​0.00%​100.00%​20-29 years16%0.03%​99.97%​0.00%​100.00%​30-39 years15%0.06%​99.94%​0.01%​99.99%​40-49 years12%0.27%​99.73%​0.03%​99.97%​50-59 years12%0.87%​99.13%​0.08%​99.92%​*0-60 Years**80%**0.20%*​*99.80%*​*0.02%*​*99.98%*​60-69 years10%2.94%​97.06%​0.21%​99.79%​70-79 years6%7.72%​92.28%​0.43%​99.57%​80+ years4%19.29%​80.71%​1.34%​98.66%​*0-80+ years**100%**1.33%*​*98.67%*​*0.11%*​*99.89%*​


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> Some food for thought based on San Diego County covid deaths.  My apologies to Dad4 for using survival rates.
> 
> 
> 
> MortalitySurvivalMortalitySurvivalRateRate% ofRateRateof Totalof TotalPopulationIf InfectedIf InfectedPopulationPopulation0-9 years13%0.00%​100.00%​0.00%​100.00%​10-19 years13%0.01%​99.99%​0.00%​100.00%​20-29 years16%0.03%​99.97%​0.00%​100.00%​30-39 years15%0.06%​99.94%​0.01%​99.99%​40-49 years12%0.27%​99.73%​0.03%​99.97%​50-59 years12%0.87%​99.13%​0.08%​99.92%​*0-60 Years**80%**0.20%*​*99.80%*​*0.02%*​*99.98%*​60-69 years10%2.94%​97.06%​0.21%​99.79%​70-79 years6%7.72%​92.28%​0.43%​99.57%​80+ years4%19.29%​80.71%​1.34%​98.66%​*0-80+ years**100%**1.33%*​*98.67%*​*0.11%*​*99.89%*​


My pal Dr Honest told me its A and B and forget about C.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

So he is saying it seems likely a 3rd dose is needed for their vaccine. 

After that? Yearly boosters. 

What does all this mean? We will be living with covid for years to come. Kind of like the flu. At some point we need to realize that and say well let us live our lives and deal with it like we do the flu (stop playing safety theater). 



			Pfizer CEO says third Covid vaccine dose likely needed within 12 months


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> Some food for thought based on San Diego County covid deaths.  My apologies to Dad4 for using survival rates.
> 
> 
> 
> MortalitySurvivalMortalitySurvivalRateRate% ofRateRateof Totalof TotalPopulationIf InfectedIf InfectedPopulationPopulation0-9 years13%0.00%​100.00%​0.00%​100.00%​10-19 years13%0.01%​99.99%​0.00%​100.00%​20-29 years16%0.03%​99.97%​0.00%​100.00%​30-39 years15%0.06%​99.94%​0.01%​99.99%​40-49 years12%0.27%​99.73%​0.03%​99.97%​50-59 years12%0.87%​99.13%​0.08%​99.92%​*0-60 Years**80%**0.20%*​*99.80%*​*0.02%*​*99.98%*​60-69 years10%2.94%​97.06%​0.21%​99.79%​70-79 years6%7.72%​92.28%​0.43%​99.57%​80+ years4%19.29%​80.71%​1.34%​98.66%​*0-80+ years**100%**1.33%*​*98.67%*​*0.11%*​*99.89%*​


Crazy right? 

We ran around closing schools, worried about kids, shutting down biz, etc for what? The VAST VAST majority of people have no real risk.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382601023441793026


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It did happen to me, thank you very much.


That’s obvious.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not all in vain.  Every so often, someone has a strong point and I learn something.
> 
> Just have to learn to filter out the Breitbart nonsense that is 90% of the posts.
> 
> Why Hüsker Dü?  I haven't heard of them in years.


Cornhusker football got me there.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 15, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10586


Is that from the trump’s troll brigade handbook?


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The panic porn news industry fuels this...along with the CDC and other governing bodies.
> 
> We are looking at roughly 1 case per million doses. That is very safe. We wouldn't have Tylenol if we suspended it based on that standard.
> 
> ...


This. You literally have a better chance being struck by lightning. The risk for the JnJ blood cot is less than 1 per million, I believe?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Cornhusker football got me there.


So bad football got you to a bad band. Makes sense now


----------



## watfly (Apr 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> a bad band.


Watch your mouth, Sandman.


----------



## espola (Apr 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So he is saying it seems likely a 3rd dose is needed for their vaccine.
> 
> After that? Yearly boosters.
> 
> ...


It's like the flu shot you get every year.  Or don't you?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just have to learn to filter out the Breitbart nonsense that is 90% of the posts.


Like the use of the term “fatal disease” to describe C19?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

espola said:


> It's like the flu shot you get every year.  Or don't you?


You missed the point...

People think covid is going to just go away. It isn't.

We are going to be living with this.

So the question is how hard will certain people and/or the gov keep trying to impose restrictions. Facemasks here, covid passports there, restrict gatherings, have stupid rules, related to schools, etc. Because listening to many of the so called experts, they are already talking about life not going back to normal.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So bad football got you to a bad band. Makes sense now


Yes they haven’t been good since they hired effing Callahan! But I am loyal and have been on them since ‘71.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yes they haven’t been good since they hired effing Callahan! But I am loyal and have been on them since ‘71.


Loyalty goes a long way. Nobody likes fair weather fans.


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Is that from the trump’s troll brigade handbook?


No, it was funny because I always use memes


----------



## espola (Apr 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You missed the point...
> 
> People think covid is going to just go away. It isn't.
> 
> ...


Which people think that?  People like you?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Which people think that?  People like you?


Baaaaaa!


----------



## dad4 (Apr 15, 2021)

crush said:


> My pal Dr Honest told me its A and B and forget about C.


Are you using total infections or confirmed infections?  Those mortality numbers look a little high.

The chart is a great example of why you don't look at survival rate.  The age dependency is as plain as day in the mortality column.  You barely notice it in the survival rate column.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Like the use of the term “fatal disease” to describe C19?


Would you prefer "disease that has killed over half a million Americans"?

It is more accurate, but it's a lot to type.


----------



## watfly (Apr 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yes they haven’t been good since they hired effing Callahan! But I am loyal and have been on them since ‘71.


Johnny Rodgers!  Actually went to elementary school with his son for a couple years when his dad was with the Chargers.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Are you using total infections or confirmed infections?  Those mortality numbers look a little high.
> 
> The chart is a great example of why you don't look at survival rate.  The age dependency is as plain as day in the mortality column.  You barely notice it in the survival rate column.


Your work is done here.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Would you prefer "disease that has killed over half a million Americans"?
> 
> It is more accurate, but it's a lot to type.


Heart disease kills that many every year.  Corona just thumbed a ride.


----------



## watfly (Apr 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The chart is a great example of why you don't look at survival rate.  The age dependency is as plain as day in the mortality column.  You barely notice it in the survival rate column.


That's a glass half empty approach...wait,no.  It's a glass 99.98% full versus a glass 0.02% empty.

The numbers speak for themselves, slice and dice it how you please.  My takeaway is that 80% of the SD population had an .02% of dying from the pandemic.  Protect seniors.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Would you prefer "disease that has killed over half a million Americans"?
> 
> It is more accurate, but it's a lot to type.


I would prefer the proper term, “novel virus” but that’s not scary enough for headlines.


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I would prefer the proper term, “novel virus” but that’s not scary enough for headlines.


It's a scam with an evil plan attached to it Kicker, get with it bro.  This is BS just like virtual call ups and top 100 8th graders in girls soccer.  This ride is almost over....lol!!!!!


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 15, 2021)

crush said:


> It's a scam with an evil plan attached to it Kicker, get with it bro.  This is BS just like virtual call ups and top 100 8th graders in girls soccer.  This ride is almost over....lol!!!!!


Yep...about as useless as a National Championship at u12, right?


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Yep...about as useless as a National Championship at u12, right?


It was u13 for the record.  We won Cal South State Cup at u11


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 15, 2021)

crush said:


> It was u13 for the record.  We won Cal South State Cup at u11


And since?


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> And since?


Great question Kicker.  U14, no playoffs because of GDA and "development" crock of you now what.  U15, lied to by two Docs ((both no more Docs because?)) and sat out.  U16, well, Covid hit.  U17, well, covid hit.  Next year I will promise you this.  My dd will be a winner in 2021/2022 in club and HSS.  What Rings you got bro?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 15, 2021)

crush said:


> Great question Kicker.  U14, no playoffs because of GDA and "development" crock of you now what.  U15, lied to by two Docs ((both no more Docs because?)) and sat out.  U16, well, Covid hit.  U17, well, covid hit.  Next year I will promise you this.  My dd will be a winner in 2021/2022 in club and HSS.  What Rings you got bro?


I don’t have any rings....I retired from the game 5 years ago.  But my DD has everything she’s ever wanted and worked for.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> That's a glass half empty approach...wait,no.  It's a glass 99.98% full versus a glass 0.02% empty.
> 
> The numbers speak for themselves, slice and dice it how you please.  My takeaway is that 80% of the SD population had an .02% of dying from the pandemic.  Protect seniors.


And remember a substantial portion of the elderly that died were already in line waiting in the nursing home for the train to arrive.


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I don’t have any rings....I retired from the game 5 years ago.  But my DD has everything she’s ever wanted and worked for.


Yes, zero rings.  Each to his own brah...lol!!!  I'm happy as Happy is.  I see how connections and know the right folks is important as well.  That is 100% obvious Captain Obvious this time around.  Trust me, this will all get sorted out on the field 2021/2022 season.  Like I said a million times before bro, this is about the selection process and the pay to play and have name on list BS!!!!


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I would prefer the proper term, “novel virus” but that’s not scary enough for headlines.


Another thing we have to stop doing is keeping a running total. 

For every other disease it is done by year. We don't say well 45 million in the US have died from heart disease, or another number from cancer....keeping a running total without regard to year. 

We start the count over every year for cancer, flu, heart disease, etc. 

For some reason our experts and press like to keep a running total for covid. 

If they ran numbers just this year we would already see a MASSIVE drop in deaths vs what we were seeing around this time of the year. 

But...we don't. 

Instead unlike any other disease covid gets special treatment and we just keep running up the total. And that of course keeps a large percentage of the population scared, and allows the politicians and experts to keep peddling fear which leads to solutions that restrict us.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 15, 2021)

crush said:


> Yes, zero rings.  Each to his own brah...lol!!!  I'm happy as Happy is.  I see how connections and know the right folks is important as well.  That is 100% obvious Captain Obvious this time around.  Trust me, this will all get sorted out on the field 2021/2022 season.  Like I said a million times before bro, this is about the selection process and the pay to play and have name on list BS!!!!


Don’t need rings if you’ve got caps


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Don’t need rings if you’ve got caps


What year did you cap bro?  I knew you played soccer but didnt know you were called up.  My dd old coach was the youngest ever to sign pro at 15 and was captain of the MNT U18.  Did you know him?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 15, 2021)

crush said:


> What year did you cap bro?  I knew you played soccer but didnt know you were called up.  My dd old coach was the youngest ever to sign pro at 15 and was captain of the MNT U18.  Did you know him?


Oh...this whole time you’ve been bagging on the kids in the list or call ups.   Now you want to change the subject and talk about you or me? 

My bad


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Oh...this whole time you’ve been bagging on the kids in the list or call ups.   Now you want to change the subject and talk about you or me?
> 
> My bad


Oh, I'm confused.  I asked you how many rings and you said you had zero and retired from the game 5 years ago.  Are you on meds?  Seriously?  I hope everything is ok with you and I mean that.  So to be 100% truthful, if I had the choice of a cap or a national championship at U13 or higher, I would 100% take the natty & the ring with my friends then an individual cap.  That is so me 100%.  I bet also my dd would say the same.  I will ask her and report back to you.  You are confusing me today.  P.S.  Im bagging on the selection process.  Congrats to every kid who made Virtual Camp.  I hope it's super fun and competitive.


----------



## crush (Apr 15, 2021)

Let's stop beating the dead horse bro and move on.  You got the caps and my dd has her rings.  We both win and that is super cool.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 15, 2021)

crush said:


> Oh, I'm confused.  I asked you how many rings and you said you had zero and retired from the game 5 years ago.  Are you on meds?  Seriously?  I hope everything is ok with you and I mean that.  So to be 100% truthful, if I had the choice of a cap or a national championship at U13 or higher, I would 100% take the natty & the ring with my friends then an individual cap.  That is so me 100%.  I bet also my dd would say the same.  I will ask her and report back to you.  You are confusing me today.  P.S.  Im bagging on the selection process.  Congrats to every kid who made Virtual Camp.  I hope it's super fun and competitive.


I’m not here talking about my journey.....my bad


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So he is saying it seems likely a 3rd dose is needed for their vaccine.
> 
> After that? Yearly boosters.
> 
> ...


Eh, no problem by me. I get my second this Sunday.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 15, 2021)

Meanwhile, India is getting hammered.


----------



## crush (Apr 16, 2021)

Do you all now see what this is all about?  Kids?  Game on!!!  Stop using the kids.......


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 16, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Meanwhile, India is getting hammered.


Other places like Thailand that escaped the worst of it too.  South Korea has accelerated past 600 now (remember they are the ones that had it under control) and is relying on the Sputnik vaccine.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Other places like Thailand that escaped the worst of it too.  South Korea has accelerated past 600 now (remember they are the ones that had it under control) and is relying on the Sputnik vaccine.


The photos coming out of India are just awful. IIRC, wasn't the Sputnik the one that had the very low efficacy rate? If so, they are in big trouble.


----------



## crush (Apr 16, 2021)

QUOTE="Grace T., post: 390805, member: 2423"]
Other places like Thailand that escaped the worst of it too.  South Korea has accelerated past 600 now (remember they are the ones that had it under control) and is relying on the Sputnik vaccine.
[/QUOTE]
The smiles at the beginning say's it all Grace.  New wave and the surge that is coming with this new kind of wave with a strain and we need to be shot with more fear.  WTHU!!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 16, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> The photos coming out of India are just awful. IIRC, wasn't the Sputnik the one that had the very low efficacy rate? If so, they are in big trouble.


The China vaccine had a low response. Sputnik is Russia. Russia claims Sputnik is 90% effective but there’s not a lot of non Russian data to verify.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The China vaccine had a low response. Sputnik is Russia. Russia claims Sputnik is 90% effective but there’s not a lot of non Russian data to verify.


Ah, ok. So not a lot of non-Russian data would make me very skeptical...


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 16, 2021)

Now I know for many of you this is beating a dead horse...but so be it.

@dad4 clings to masks. Frequently stating they are 70-79% effective.

He claims news to the contrary is Brietbart kind of stuff.

But it is not just him. We keep hearing various gov officials say wear masks. We keep hearing various news outlets saying wear masks. Schools and biz have notices saying wear masks.

And yet major government centers point out that they cannot PROVE masks work.

Recently I have posted from the EU version of the CDC and the WHO who both state there is little evidence showing masks work. Both say more studies need to be done.

If we are going to be bombarded with warnings to wear masks, *shouldn't there be a scientific basis for this recommendation? You know...DATA?*

Here is one from our own National Institute of Health. Note that they say scientific evidence supporting *facemask efficacy is lacking*. They also say bad things associated with masks ARE KNOWN.

From the first paragraph.

"Many countries across the globe utilized medical and non-medical facemasks as non-pharmaceutical intervention for reducing the transmission and infectivity of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). *Although, scientific evidence supporting facemasks’ efficacy is lacking,* _adverse physiological, psychological and health effects are established._ Is has been hypothesized that facemasks have compromised safety and efficacy profile and should be avoided from use. The current article comprehensively summarizes scientific evidences with respect to wearing facemasks in the COVID-19 era, providing prosper information for public health and decisions making."

-

"SARS-CoV-2 primarily affects respiratory system and can cause complications such as acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), respiratory failure and death [3], [9]. *It is not clear however, what the scientific and clinical basis for wearing facemasks as protective strategy*, given the fact that facemasks restrict breathing, causing hypoxemia and hypercapnia and increase the risk for respiratory complications, self-contamination and exacerbation of existing chronic conditions [2], [11], [12], [13], [14]."

-

"Although several countries mandated wearing facemask in health care settings and public areas, *scientific evidences are lacking supporting their efficacy for reducing morbidity or mortality associated with infectious or viral diseases* [2], [14], [19]."

-

*"Efficacy of facemasks*
*The physical properties of medical and non-medical facemasks suggest that facemasks are ineffective to block viral particles due to their difference in scales* [16], [17], [25]. According to the current knowledge, the virus SARS-CoV-2 has a diameter of 60 nm to 140 nm [nanometers (billionth of a meter)] [16], [17], while medical and non-medical facemasks’ thread diameter ranges from 55 µm to 440 µm [micrometers (one millionth of a meter), *which is more than 1000 times larger* [25]. Due to the difference in sizes between SARS-CoV-2 diameter and facemasks thread diameter (the virus is 1000 times smaller), *SARS-CoV-2 can easily pass through any facemask* [25]. In addition, the efficiency filtration rate of facemasks is poor, ranging from 0.7% in non-surgical, cotton-gauze woven mask to 26% in cotton sweeter material [2]. With respect to surgical and N95 medical facemasks, the efficiency filtration rate falls to 15% and 58%, respectively when even small gap between the mask and the face exists [25]."

-

"A _meta_-analysis among health care workers found that *compared to no masks, surgical mask and N95 respirators were not effective against transmission of viral infections or influenza-like illness based on six RCTs* [28]. Using separate analysis of 23 observational studies, this _meta_-analysis *found no protective effect of medical mask or N95 respirators against SARS virus* [28]. A recent systematic review of 39 studies including 33,867 participants in community settings (self-report illness), found no difference between N95 respirators versus surgical masks and surgical mask versus no masks in the risk for developing influenza or influenza-like illness, *suggesting their ineffectiveness of blocking viral transmissions in community settings [29]."

- 
Read the full study below. 









						Facemasks in the COVID-19 era: A health hypothesis
					

Many countries across the globe utilized medical and non-medical facemasks as non-pharmaceutical intervention for reducing the transmission and infectivity of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Although, scientific evidence supporting facemasks’ ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				



*


----------



## watfly (Apr 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Another thing we have to stop doing is keeping a running total.
> 
> For every other disease it is done by year. We don't say well 45 million in the US have died from heart disease, or another number from cancer....keeping a running total without regard to year.
> 
> ...


With all due respect I disagree with you on this one.  The pandemic is ongoing so I believe its appropriate to reflect total numbers.  It's unlike the flu which effectively starts and ends in within a year or season.  Pandemic's have traditionally been counted in total and not annually.  But yes the fear porn industry does appreciate the fact they can preach the total.

Along these lines SD County shows an interesting trend with the ongoing Covid cases.  SD County appears to have a baseline infection rate, which I characterize as "the water finding its path".  SD seems to have a floor of 250-300 infections a day and then peaks and goes back down to 250-300.   In the late summer and fall, about 3 months, the rate stayed flat at 250-300.  It then peaked at over 5,000 during the winter and then precipitously dropped and bottomed out at 250-300 where its been for the last 6 weeks.   To me this means we can do whatever we want (other than vaccines) and it may impact the timing of the peaks but otherwise the virus isn't going to go away until it runs out of viable hosts.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 16, 2021)

watfly said:


> The pandemic is ongoing so I believe its appropriate to reflect total numbers. It's unlike the flu which effectively starts and ends in within a year or season. Pandemic's have traditionally been counted in total and not annually.


That is a good and fair point.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 16, 2021)

watfly said:


> To me this means we can do whatever we want (other than vaccines) and it may impact the timing of the peaks but otherwise the virus isn't going to go away until it runs out of viable hosts.


I think we will be living with covid for years to come.


----------



## watfly (Apr 16, 2021)

Here is how those who understand the bigger picture and have a normal risk tolerance look at the Covid mortality rate:


Here is how those with an abnormally low risk tolerance and are susceptible to "fear porn" look at the Covid mortality rate:


Both graphs' data is 100% accurate.  It's all a matter of interpretation.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 16, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382852364701294592


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 16, 2021)

watfly said:


> Here is how those who understand the bigger picture and have a normal risk tolerance look at the Covid mortality rate:
> View attachment 10603
> 
> Here is how those with an abnormally low risk tolerance and are susceptible to "fear porn" look at the Covid mortality rate:
> ...


You mean presentation.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I think we will be living with covid for years to come.


That’s a given...but how will we live is the bigger question.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 16, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> That’s a given...but how will we live is the bigger question.


Indeed it is. 

That is why for instance it is important to fight against nonsensical rules. 

To fight against safety theater. 

To fight for instance against masks. As I posted from the WHO, the National Institute of Health, the Euro CDC...all state they cannot actually show masks work. 

Our politicians and experts are too quick to make up rules that do nothing to stop the spread of the virus but do hurt biz, education, etc. 

I am not willingly going along with made up rules that infringe on my freedoms/rights.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 16, 2021)

watfly said:


> That's a glass half empty approach...wait,no.  It's a glass 99.98% full versus a glass 0.02% empty.
> 
> The numbers speak for themselves, slice and dice it how you please.  My takeaway is that 80% of the SD population had an .02% of dying from the pandemic.  *Protect seniors.*


To be honest, the time for that discussion has past.  Most seniors have, by this point, been offered a vaccine.  

Back the question was valid, we disagreed about _how_ to protect seniors, not whether.  Some believed that it was possible to draw a circle around seniors and keep them isolated from the virus in the community.  Others believed that such a barrier is inherently leaky, and the best way to protect seniors was to reduce overall transmission.  

We could look at the data to see whether anywhere managed to protect seniors without fighting the virus.  It would show up on worldometer as states and countries with high cases and low deaths.

If multiple countries have high cases and low deaths, we should have done what they did.

If no one has high cases and low deaths, then the only (pre-vaccine) way to protect seniors was to fight cases.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> To be honest, the time for that discussion has past.  Most seniors have, by this point, been offered a vaccine.
> 
> Back the question was valid, we disagreed about _how_ to protect seniors, not whether.  Some believed that it was possible to draw a circle around seniors and keep them isolated from the virus in the community.  Others believed that such a barrier is inherently leaky, and the best way to protect seniors was to reduce overall transmission.
> 
> ...


The closest we have to "protect seniors" is Florida which took early steps to isolate nursing homes.  Japan is also relatively close but they had mask mandates, curfew, lockdowns too (though less robust than Europe) and f'd the pooch when it comes to testing and vaccines. Some chose foolish policies with respect to seniors (including NY and Sweden).  But pretty much everyone else was in the unsustainable lockdown boat with some exceptions (you know the ones).


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 16, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Apr 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The closest we have to "protect seniors" is Florida which took early steps to isolate nursing homes.  Japan is also relatively close but they had mask mandates, curfew, lockdowns too (though less robust than Europe) and f'd the pooch when it comes to testing and vaccines. Some chose foolish policies with respect to seniors (including NY and Sweden).  But pretty much everyone else was in the unsustainable lockdown boat with some exceptions (you know the ones).


That would seem to indicate that isolating nursing homes is a necessary, but not sufficient, step towards protecting seniors.

FL still had 1.6 deaths per 100 confirmed cases.  Better than the US average of 1.8 deaths per 100 confirmed cases, but not by much.   

This is not exactly a great case study for the virtues of “protect seniors” as our main line of defense.  Is there anywhere it actually worked?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That would seem to indicate that isolating nursing homes is a necessary, but not sufficient, step towards protecting seniors.
> 
> FL still had 1.6 deaths per 100 confirmed cases.  Better than the US average of 1.8 deaths per 100 confirmed cases, but not by much.
> 
> This is not exactly a great case study for the virtues of “protect seniors” as our main line of defense.  Is there anywhere it actually worked?


other than partially in Florida and Japan it hasn’t been tried anywhere.  In Japan deaths are relatively low as well but it wasn’t a pure protect seniors approach and they did it despite screwinh up testing. Lockdowns though have been tried almost everywhere. They weren’t sustainable.  The other question is what “worked means”....if it’s very low deaths in the western world pretty much only Australia nz achieved that.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> other than partially in Florida and Japan it hasn’t been tried anywhere.  In Japan deaths are relatively low as well but it wasn’t a pure protect seniors approach and they did it despite screwinh up testing. Lockdowns though have been tried almost everywhere. They weren’t sustainable.  The other question is what “worked means”....if it’s very low deaths in the western world pretty much only Australia nz achieved that.


When you are wealthy like Murdoch you can move to Australia where they virtually eliminated Covid-19 by following the rules while some on his US Fox programs promote breaking those rules. Nice.









						Fox Corp. CEO Lachlan Murdoch Heads To Australia As Fox News Faces Headwinds
					

Lachlan Murdoch, the CEO and executive chairman of Fox Corp., has left Los Angeles for Sydney at a time when Fox News is reckoning with major lawsuits and questions over its direction.




					www.npr.org


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> When you are wealthy like Murdoch you can move to Australia where they virtually eliminated Covid-19 by following the rules while some on his US Fox programs promote breaking those rules. Nice.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


WTHRUUP at 3am for?  Listen and listen carefully.  This has always been about the kids for me.  Kids killed before birth and organs sold or kids born in trafficking or kidnaped.  Watch this trailer and then get your ass in front of a tv and watch the movie when it comes out.  Then come back and talk to me.  Can you do that for me?  Please, thank you  









						Free-WATCH Sound of Freedom FULL || MOVIE || Tim Ballard || Jim Caviezel
					

Free-WATCH Sound of Freedom FULL || MOVIE || Tim Ballard || Jim Caviezel ►► Watch or Download Now Here  《 https://easyflix.vip/en/movie/678512/sound-of-freedom ☆√ Download :  https://t.co/GA5fF4Vc9q?download-sound-ofpfreedom-movie ••••••••••••••…




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## dad4 (Apr 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> other than partially in Florida and Japan it hasn’t been tried anywhere.  In Japan deaths are relatively low as well but it wasn’t a pure protect seniors approach and they did it despite screwinh up testing. Lockdowns though have been tried almost everywhere. They weren’t sustainable.  The other question is what “worked means”....if it’s very low deaths in the western world pretty much only Australia nz achieved that.


Look at the deaths per case in Florida.  It’s just as bad as most of the country: 1.6 deaths per confirmed case.

There is a reason that no one tried to protect seniors by allowing millions of covid cases.  It is impossible to do.  

Not “impossible to do without extreme measures”.  Not “impossible to do in a sustainable fashion”.  Not “impossible to do without giving up my dinner parties”.   Just impossible.

It can not be done.  Cordons leak.  If you have millions of comfirmed cases, you will have tens of thousands of deaths.  There is no such thing as protecting seniors by allowing a respiratory epidemic to rage unchecked.


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look at the deaths per case in Florida.  It’s just as bad as most of the country: 1.6 deaths per confirmed case.
> 
> There is a reason that no one tried to protect seniors by allowing millions of covid cases.  It is impossible to do.
> 
> ...


This dude is funny!!!


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)

I came to bring healing to the world dad of 4.  Yes sir, we need to make sure all kids are born.  Then we can have a lot of fun on the planet making more kids.  Do you see how that is supposed to work?  We got it all wrong dad.  We got to a point where we killed the kids before their born and that is not good for anyone's soul or for that community.  The pain & guilt stay with all those who supported the termination.  It haunts the soul  Were living with that Karma and now good Karma will come.  Dont get played by the fear virus and death and think only for yourself.  If you help others, then no fear


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look at the deaths per case in Florida.  It’s just as bad as most of the country: 1.6 deaths per confirmed case.
> 
> There is a reason that no one tried to protect seniors by allowing millions of covid cases.  It is impossible to do.
> 
> ...


Just as bad as rest of the country?  So they did slightly better without torching the economy and kids like California?  Better than ny that returned covid cases into nursing homes then tried to cover it up?  Better right now than Michigan?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 17, 2021)

Ontario is entering a harder lockdown with people (even if vaccinated) allowed to leave their homes only for essential purposes, police empowered to stop anyone on street and to arrest if lack of cooperation, neighbors encouraged to inform on neighbors. I’m sure dad4 would heartily approve.


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ontario is entering a harder lockdown with people (even if vaccinated) allowed to leave their homes only for essential purposes, police empowered to stop anyone on street and to arrest if lack of cooperation, neighbors encouraged to inform on neighbors. I’m sure dad4 would heartily approve.


"Snitch Life" is a new reality show I just coined.  If NBC wants to take my idea, I say run with it and I would watch.


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)

To all the little mask snitches.  Watch Mr. Brady handle Cindy on youtube and her snitching on Alice hugging the mailman.  I can't wait to watch, "Snitch Life."  Losers!!!


----------



## dad4 (Apr 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Just as bad as rest of the country?  So they did slightly better without torching the economy and kids like California?  Better than ny that returned covid cases into nursing homes then tried to cover it up?  Better right now than Michigan?


Actually slightly worse than CA.  But better than the national average.  (Because the national average includes NY/NJ)

Considerably worse than places which actually enforced their mask and distance rules.

You can say “we’re allowing half a million seniors to die because people need jobs and we want to keep the economy open”.  That is honest.  

You can say “we’re allowing a half million seniors to die because we don’t want to have a police presence capable of enforcing our public health laws”.  That is also honest.

But “protect seniors while allowing an uncontrolled respiratory pandemic” is just bull shit.    You don’t get to say you are “protecting seniors“ at the same time you are allowing them to die.


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Actually slightly worse than CA.  But better than the national average.  (Because the national average includes NY/NJ)
> 
> Considerably worse than places which actually enforced their mask and distance rules.
> 
> ...


scammer


----------



## watfly (Apr 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Just as bad as rest of the country?  So they did slightly better without torching the economy and kids like California?  Better than ny that returned covid cases into nursing homes then tried to cover it up?  Better right now than Michigan?


You're arguing against someone whose only yardstick is Covid.  When has he even compared employment rates, business closures etc?  If he looked at that he'd seem dramatic differences between states like California and Florida as opposed to the minor differences in Covid.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Actually slightly worse than CA.  But better than the national average.  (Because the national average includes NY/NJ)
> 
> Considerably worse than places which actually enforced their mask and distance rules.
> 
> ...


Bravo to Bill Maher


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383420190524805120


----------



## dad4 (Apr 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Bravo to Bill Maher
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383420190524805120


Anyone with the spine to criticize the faults on their own side deserves respect.  Maher is spot on.


----------



## espola (Apr 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Bravo to Bill Maher
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383420190524805120


 "78% of those hospitalized, ventilated,  or dead from covid are overweight... Imagine how many lives could have been saved if there had been some national campaign a la Michelle Obama's Let's Move Program with the currency of the pandemic behind it"


----------



## dad4 (Apr 17, 2021)

watfly said:


> You're arguing against someone whose only yardstick is Covid.  When has he even compared employment rates, business closures etc?  If he looked at that he'd seem dramatic differences between states like California and Florida as opposed to the minor differences in Covid.


The covid competent countries are also doing well economically.  Better than any part of the US, whether red or blue.

So, if your yardstick is unemployment rate, we should have enforced our borders and public health rules like Australia and New Zealand enforced theirs.  

Economically, their policies worked and ours did not.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Actually slightly worse than CA.  But better than the national average.  (Because the national average includes NY/NJ)
> 
> Considerably worse than places which actually enforced their mask and distance rules.
> 
> ...


If we were really planning on being honest we’d also take into account years of life saved but no one is comfortable having THAT conversation


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)

espola said:


> "78% of those hospitalized, ventilated,  or dead from covid are overweight... Imagine how many lives could have been saved if there had been some national campaign a la Michelle Obama's Let's Move Program with the currency of the pandemic behind it"


I'm down to 183 EOTL.  I told you years ago to be truthful and honest and you didnt listen.  The truth will set you free bro


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Just as bad as rest of the country?  So they did slightly better without torching the economy and kids like California?  Better than ny that returned covid cases into nursing homes then tried to cover it up?  Better right now than Michigan?


That state and TX shows the rest you may as well have been open.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If we were really planning on being honest we’d also take into account years of life saved but no one is comfortable having THAT conversation


Except Dad4.  He's heartless that way.  Years of life lost is the valid measure.  

Don't forget to include about the non-fatal damage done.  Those hospital stays are neither cheap nor pleasant.  

Honest is good.


----------



## espola (Apr 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Anyone with the spine to criticize the faults on their own side deserves respect.  Maher is spot on.


What side is Maher on?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 17, 2021)

espola said:


> What side is Maher on?


Watch the video.  I think of Maher as leftist, but not dogmatically so.


----------



## watfly (Apr 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Watch the video.  I think of Maher as leftist, but not dogmatically so.


He claims he is a libertarian because it sounds cooler than calling yourself a leftist.  Too me he is just an arrogant prick. I do enjoy his show on occasion but he tends to suck up to the opinions of his guests.  Some on the Right get all excited when he says something that fits their narrative, but I personally don't give his opinion any weight other than it's entertainment value.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 17, 2021)

watfly said:


> He claims he is a libertarian


He’s not. He’s a leftist with some libertarian leanings.


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)

I know many dear friends WHO think were about to enter something like this meme pic.  Today, Crush does not see it happening like this.  I actually see something 100% opposite.


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)

Although my Elitist Grandmother wanted me killed before I saw the light of day, my adopted mommy always told me this, "I was no accident."  She actually told me everyday I was special and came hear to help the blind and those who only care about materialism.  It's hard to shake and bake the past but it's the only way to live in the future.  I'm here for anyone who wants to get in the light


----------



## crush (Apr 17, 2021)




----------



## crush (Apr 18, 2021)




----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The covid competent countries are also doing well economically.  Better than any part of the US, whether red or blue.
> 
> So, if your yardstick is unemployment rate, we should have enforced our borders and public health rules like Australia and New Zealand enforced theirs.
> 
> Economically, their policies worked and ours did not.


The disconnect between reality and theory is shocking. What is it about New Zealand and Australia that makes you think we could apply what they did here? Do they have the housing density you suggested is driving the CA cases? Do they have the ingrained idea of dissent and individualism that we have combined with our laissez-faire approach to limiting anything - including legal entry into our country? Do they have strong states' rights? Do they have more sheep than people? Are they an island? Does each have fewer visitors each year than the state of Hawaii? I'll give you credit for consistency, but I'd say your theory of what "could have been" here if we just "followed the rules" has as much basis in reality as Marxist dreams had versus the Soviet and Chinese reality.


----------



## crush (Apr 18, 2021)

Back story.  Bob took his car in to see the Doc.  Tech told him the following

Auto Repair Tech ((Art)):  Bob, their is a 99% chance your car will be fine
Bob:  Awesome to hear
ART: However, we highly recommend you service it with a new experimental oil that could actually kill your engine.
Bob: Oh wow, why would I do that?
Art:  Well, I was told by all the top dealerships that this is the only way to get rid of all the old cars and get people to buy new ones
Bob:  How much?
Art: It's free.  Dealerships have it all covered
Bob: ok
Art:  You will need to come in for second oil change if the first one doesn;t do the job, FYI


----------



## dad4 (Apr 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The disconnect between reality and theory is shocking. What is it about New Zealand and Australia that makes you think we could apply what they did here? Do they have the housing density you suggested is driving the CA cases? Do they have the ingrained idea of dissent and individualism that we have combined with our laissez-faire approach to limiting anything - including legal entry into our country? Do they have strong states' rights? Do they have more sheep than people? Are they an island? Does each have fewer visitors each year than the state of Hawaii? I'll give you credit for consistency, but I'd say your theory of what "could have been" here if we just "followed the rules" has as much basis in reality as Marxist dreams had versus the Soviet and Chinese reality.


The item on that list that really drove it is the “ingrained idea of dissent and individualism.”

On that, we agree.

But it means we ought to take a long look in the mirror.   We, as a people, did not do very well when we needed to change our behavior as individuals.  We did a bad job writing the rules, and we did a bad job following them.

What happens the next time our country needs some kind of shared sacrifice?  Do we all pitch in for 2 months and then give up?  In many ways, it is what we did this time.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The item on that list that really drove it is the “ingrained idea of dissent and individualism.”
> 
> On that, we agree.
> 
> ...


I'd say we don't do very well when we are told what to do and are quick to call BS on leaders who ask one thing and do another. That's enough for many to decide that they will figure out what they want to do on their own. I think it's also significant that, historically anyway, our culture rewards and cultivates risk-taking. A lot of people looked at this virus and decided the "cure" was worse than the risk. I believe the reaction would have been different if it had been this contagious and something like ebola.

Should Europe and Canada also be "looking in the mirror" based on how they have handled their vaccine policy? I think our culture of adaptation and problem-solving is helping with that part of the virus.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'd say we don't do very well when we are told what to do and are quick to call BS on leaders who ask one thing and do another. That's enough for many to decide that they will figure out what they want to do on their own. I think it's also significant that, historically anyway, our culture rewards and cultivates risk-taking. A lot of people looked at this virus and decided the "cure" was worse than the risk. I believe the reaction would have been different if it had been this contagious and something like ebola.
> 
> Should Europe and Canada also be "looking in the mirror" based on how they have handled their vaccine policy? I think our culture of adaptation and problem-solving is helping with that part of the virus.


Europe seems to have waited somewhat longer before saying “screw it”.  Otherwise, they were essentially the same.  

But how the heck are we going to tackle climate change or pay off the national debt this way?  The leaders won’t be any less hypocritical.  The cheerleader for action on climate will turn out to have taken a vacation in Bali.  Senators who raise taxes to pay the debt will have untaxed offshore accounts.  So do we all hop in our SUVs and cheat on our taxes?


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 18, 2021)

Dad4 I feel where you are coming from, I really do. I don't get the "mah freedoms!!!!" People that cry over a piece of cloth over their faces- sorry, just never will and don't care if people hate me.
BUT- neither you nor I can really say much. From a financial aspect, it sounds like you (and I know I,) were not impacted that much. That is not the case for soooo many. Until we can prevent people from losing everything, people are gonna ignore- it's in our instincts to provide.


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## Hüsker Dü (Apr 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The disconnect between reality and theory is shocking. What is it about New Zealand and Australia that makes you think we could apply what they did here? Do they have the housing density you suggested is driving the CA cases? Do they have the ingrained idea of dissent and individualism that we have combined with our laissez-faire approach to limiting anything - including legal entry into our country? Do they have strong states' rights? Do they have more sheep than people? Are they an island? Does each have fewer visitors each year than the state of Hawaii? I'll give you credit for consistency, but I'd say your theory of what "could have been" here if we just "followed the rules" has as much basis in reality as Marxist dreams had versus the Soviet and Chinese reality.


So thinking we could have/could still do better is somehow a communist ideal?


----------



## happy9 (Apr 18, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Dad4 I feel where you are coming from, I really do. I don't get the "mah freedoms!!!!" People that cry over a piece of cloth over their faces- sorry, just never will and don't care if people hate me.
> BUT- neither you nor I can really say much. From a financial aspect, it sounds like you (and I know I,) were not impacted that much. That is not the case for soooo many. Until we can prevent people from losing everything, people are gonna ignore- it's in our instincts to provide.


But it's really not about the masks - It's what comes after you are "directed" to wear masks.  Funny thing:  Mask mandates lifted in AZ, there are still masks everywhere, especially in service businesses.  Florida is the same. Texas I'm sure is the same.  They are open, businesses are trying to make a comeback, keep livelihoods, etc.  

This isn't black and white, plenty of gray to be found in how to navigate a pandemic in a modern society.  Shutting down economies is not the answer, never will be.  It's obvious lockdowns don't work - pull all the science you want (not you, but you know what I mean).  If lockdowns worked, there would be evidence of it.  And you can't compare tiny island nations to countries that are involved and intertwined in the global economy.  Also can't trust countries who don't value their citizen's rights.  It doesn't work that way.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 18, 2021)

happy9 said:


> But it's really not about the masks - It's what comes after you are "directed" to wear masks.  Funny thing:  Mask mandates lifted in AZ, there are still masks everywhere, especially in service businesses.  Florida is the same. Texas I'm sure is the same.  They are open, businesses are trying to make a comeback, keep livelihoods, etc.
> 
> This isn't black and white, plenty of gray to be found in how to navigate a pandemic in a modern society.  Shutting down economies is not the answer, never will be.  It's obvious lockdowns don't work - pull all the science you want (not you, but you know what I mean).  If lockdowns worked, there would be evidence of it.  And you can't compare tiny island nations to countries that are involved and intertwined in the global economy.  Also can't trust countries who don't value their citizen's rights.  It doesn't work that way.


All fair points- it's not an easy situation and I don't pretend to know what's right!


----------



## dad4 (Apr 18, 2021)

happy9 said:


> But it's really not about the masks - It's what comes after you are "directed" to wear masks.  Funny thing:  Mask mandates lifted in AZ, there are still masks everywhere, especially in service businesses.  Florida is the same. Texas I'm sure is the same.  They are open, businesses are trying to make a comeback, keep livelihoods, etc.
> 
> This isn't black and white, plenty of gray to be found in how to navigate a pandemic in a modern society.  Shutting down economies is not the answer, never will be.  It's obvious lockdowns don't work - pull all the science you want (not you, but you know what I mean).  If lockdowns worked, there would be evidence of it.  And you can't compare tiny island nations to countries that are involved and intertwined in the global economy.  Also can't trust countries who don't value their citizen's rights.  It doesn't work that way.


South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are major economic powers, densely populated, democracies, and deeply intwined the world economy.

All three managed to drive R below 1 and keep it there.  I suspect all three have suffered less economic damage than we have.

Call it a lockdown if you like.  But their policies worked and ours did not.


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## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are major economic powers, densely populated, democracies, and deeply intwined the world economy.
> 
> All three managed to drive R below 1 and keep it there.  I suspect all three have suffered less economic damage than we have.
> 
> Call it a lockdown if you like.  But their policies worked and ours did not.


There you go again. Japans lockdowns were more lenient than California’s relying on lockdowns and curfews by metropolitan area only as the virus surged.  The chief differences: they really focused early on protecting the elderly and stopping reseeding on the border, their weight ratios and diet, and their culture not just of masks but if you are sick you take steps of politeness to not infect others.  Possible prior exposures to other coronavirus may also explain the difference in outcome with the Phillipines. That said they went through a winter wave starting around late November (guess they relaxed things for thanksgiving) and are in a current wave now.  Their testing has also been awful (cases are undercounted) as has been their vaccine rollout. And now there’s the olympics 

South Korea has relied on test and trace, had a December much smaller surge (gosh that thanksgiving!) but is now over 600 cases.

Taiwan is a success story but: a they didn’t believe the prc, they are an island, they shut their island right away, they lockdown and t&t to drive everything down and they kept the border shut.

South Korea and Taiwan are democracies but they are also hardly free states. Much like Australia they took steps like mandatory separation from your family and forced testing and South Korea was not able to control the virus. You keep searching for that utopia which doesn’t exist though as public health options (force everyone to exercise and eat sushi and protect the elderly and magically become super polite) is far fetched as they come.


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## happy9 (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are major economic powers, densely populated, democracies, and deeply intwined the world economy.
> 
> All three managed to drive R below 1 and keep it there.  I suspect all three have suffered less economic damage than we have.
> 
> Call it a lockdown if you like.  But their policies worked and ours did not.


I'm not going to get into an exhaustive point by point rebuttal.  I'm not as smart as you.  I'm sure R means something to you, it's doesn't to me.  It's not black and white and those countries each had their issues, maybe except for Taiwan.  All 3 have very restrictive borders and culturally they are very different from murica.  

It's easy to sit home and coldly analyze a problem.  I don't mean that as a personal attack against you (or anyone). It's kinda like an MBA student working on a capstone project in school then trying to apply that in the real business world.  Not everything is neat.

To someone running a business, being told by the government to close your business is a lockdown.   Many businesses are gone forever.  There are economic footprints all over the country that have lost upwards of 60% small business of all types of flavors and many more to come. Many still struggling.  Where do you draw the line?  I know where I draw mine


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## espola (Apr 19, 2021)




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## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There you go again. Japans lockdowns were more lenient than California’s relying on lockdowns and curfews by metropolitan area only as the virus surged.  The chief differences: they really focused early on protecting the elderly and stopping reseeding on the border, their weight ratios and diet, and their culture not just of masks but if you are sick you take steps of politeness to not infect others.  Possible prior exposures to other coronavirus may also explain the difference in outcome with the Phillipines. That said they went through a winter wave starting around late November (guess they relaxed things for thanksgiving) and are in a current wave now.  Their testing has also been awful (cases are undercounted) as has been their vaccine rollout. And now there’s the olympics
> 
> South Korea has relied on test and trace, had a December much smaller surge (gosh that thanksgiving!) but is now over 600 cases.
> 
> ...


Yes.  They did something different than we did.  Their policies worked.  Ours did not.

The question is not whether our policies and attitudes failed.  We know we failed. The question is why we failed, and what we can do better.

Was T&T more important than business closures?  Great question.  

Did we do ourselves serious damage by staying social while mildly sick?  Also a great question.

Add to that, did our national attitude towards individualism over collective action cripple our response?  Unpopular, but needs to be asked.

But stop saying “it was all inevitable”.  It was not inevitable.  Several democratic countries handled the virus with minimal deaths.  We did not.  Can we learn from the successes, instead of just coming up with a list of excuses to justify past mistakes?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes.  They did something different than we did.  Their policies worked.  Ours did not.
> 
> The question is not whether our policies and attitudes failed.  We know we failed. The question is why we failed, and what we can do better.
> 
> ...


But none of them did through your preferred option of mild NPIs and masks.

Change the density of cities, make people more polite about illness, have them eat healthier and lose weight, give them exposure to other prior coronaviruses or become an island are not short term pandemic responses that you can turn on in emergency response.

The one thing ALL the countries that did better have in common BTW is control the border.  We couldn't even do that.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> But none of them did through your preferred option of mild NPIs and masks.
> 
> Change the density of cities, make people more polite about illness, have them eat healthier and lose weight, give them exposure to other prior coronaviruses or become an island are not short term pandemic responses that you can turn on in emergency response.
> 
> The one thing ALL the countries that did better have in common BTW is control the border.  *We couldn't even do that*.


We WON"T do that.  It's a choice, unless it's not and we are incapable of controlling the border. It may be even be tooooo sensitive of a topic to discuss as adults, too many extremists on both sides.


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## Desert Hound (Apr 19, 2021)

happy9 said:


> I'm not going to get into an exhaustive point by point rebuttal.  I'm not as smart as you.  I'm sure R means something to you, it's doesn't to me.  It's not black and white and those countries each had their issues, maybe except for Taiwan.  All 3 have very restrictive borders and culturally they are very different from murica.
> 
> It's easy to sit home and coldly analyze a problem.  I don't mean that as a personal attack against you (or anyone). It's kinda like an MBA student working on a capstone project in school then trying to apply that in the real business world.  Not everything is neat.
> 
> To someone running a business, being told by the government to close your business is a lockdown.   Many businesses are gone forever.  There are economic footprints all over the country that have lost upwards of 60% small business of all types of flavors and many more to come. Many still struggling.  Where do you draw the line?  I know where I draw mine


@dad4 has a number of issues. 

- Does not do cost benefit analysis
- Does not adjust his view to real world data
- Clings to masks (EU CDC, WHO and the US NIH have all said they don't know if masks work). 
- Advocates closing/killing biz, closing schools, etc. all while he has a job that with lockdowns are not affected. You can lay money if he owned a biz and some people were saying no big deal just close it, he would be a very strong advocate of real data and not killing his lifelong investment. It is real easy to advocate shutting biz down when you can do so and still receive full pay sitting in a basement with a mask on.


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## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> But none of them did through your preferred option of mild NPIs and masks.
> 
> Change the density of cities, make people more polite about illness, have them eat healthier and lose weight, give them exposure to other prior coronaviruses or become an island are not short term pandemic responses that you can turn on in emergency response.
> 
> The one thing ALL the countries that did better have in common BTW is control the border.  We couldn't even do that.


You yourself said Japan did a more mild lockdown than we did.  That seems to be mild NPI + masks.

The difference may be that Japan actually followed their rules.  

Compare that to us.  What fraction of the country has been to at least 20 indoor gatherings in the last 14 months?  We have plenty of people who spent the last year in weekly indoor gatherings, and now complain that “lockdowns don’t work”.  

Well, yes.  Speed limits don’t work either, if you ignore them.


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## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

happy9 said:


> We WON"T do that.  It's a choice, unless it's not and we are incapable of controlling the border. It may be even be tooooo sensitive of a topic to discuss as adults, too many extremists on both sides.


It's not just the illegal immigrants and asylum seekers either.  It's the many US citizens which would have been stranded overseas and the shutdown of airtravel that would have been required.  Even Trump didn't want to go that far.  Remember it was the repatriation of US citizens off the Diamond Princess that was partially responsibility for the early escalation in NorCal and Washington, and Americans returning from Italy that accelerated the NY outbreak.


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## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You yourself said Japan did a more mild lockdown than we did.  That seems to be mild NPI + masks.
> 
> The difference may be that Japan actually followed their rules.
> 
> ...


They actually regionally surge, which is how the lockdowns were originally intended to operate.  Not let's close indoor dining nationwide for a year plus.

Again, change the culture of a country to make everyone more polite like the Japanese is not a policy prescription.  Hasn't helped the Canadians avoid their current surge either.


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## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They actually regionally surge, which is how the lockdowns were originally intended to operate.  Not let's close indoor dining nationwide for a year plus.
> 
> Again, change the culture of a country to make everyone more polite like the Japanese is not a policy prescription.  Hasn't helped the Canadians avoid their current surge either.


Japan as of last week IIRC was at 1% partially vaccinated.  They are also still considering hosting the olympics except without visiting spectators but with limited seating at stadiums.  Their testing has also been abysmal and their handling of the Diamond Princess quarantine was a disaster that seeded outbreaks in the rest of the world..  And they are having a third wave....









						Japan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Japan Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


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## happy9 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's not just the illegal immigrants and asylum seekers either.  It's the many US citizens which would have been stranded overseas and the shutdown of airtravel that would have been required.  Even Trump didn't want to go that far.  Remember it was the repatriation of US citizens off the Diamond Princess that was partially responsibility for the early escalation in NorCal and Washington, and Americans returning from Italy that accelerated the NY outbreak.


As with life, the geo political world isn't black and white.  Attaching words like xenophobia to the management of a crisis causes bad decisions.  People have to think about "feelings" and don't look at consequences.  Crisis management then turns into consequence management - that's where we've been.


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## Hüsker Dü (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes.  They did something different than we did.  Their policies worked.  Ours did not.
> 
> The question is not whether our policies and attitudes failed.  We know we failed. The question is why we failed, and what we can do better.
> 
> ...


Asian cultures, even Aussies and Kiwis, are more able to bite the bullet and just do the damn restrictions knowing it will make things get worked out faster. Here, the land of death cults and extreme selfishness, not so much.


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## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They actually regionally surge, which is how the lockdowns were originally intended to operate.  Not let's close indoor dining nationwide for a year plus.
> 
> Again, change the culture of a country to make everyone more polite like the Japanese is not a policy prescription.  Hasn't helped the Canadians avoid their current surge either.


Japan did it through politeness.  Australia and New Zealand found another path.  South Korea found a third.

None of them declared that each individual citizen gets to act as their own personal health department.   They had rules, they followed their rules,  and they had consequences for violations of those rules.

We have several good examples of wealthy democratic countries that managed this:

South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore.

UK learned from them.  Can we learn from them, too?  Or is it more important to make excuses and play political CYA?

Some things they did, which we can copy:

Isolate patients.
Restrict travel, including border closures.
Test and trace.
Mask up.
Close indoor gatherings.
Significant penalties for rule violations.

Something we did, which they can copy:

Throw gobs of money at vaccine research and production facilities.


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## crush (Apr 19, 2021)

happy9 said:


> As with life, the geo political world isn't black and white.  Attaching words like xenophobia to the management of a crisis causes bad decisions.  People have to think about "feelings" and don't look at consequences.  Crisis management then turns into consequence management - that's where we've been.


Thoughts = Choice = Actions = Consequences


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## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Japan did it through politeness.  Australia and New Zealand found another path.  South Korea found a third.
> 
> None of them declared that each individual citizen gets to act as their own personal health department.   They had rules, they followed their rules,  and they had consequences for violations of those rules.
> 
> ...


True thing which is sort of funny.  I keep starting a post with an alternate history of the US where they do everything you want them to but everytime I start it it runs off the rails quickly.  I keep stumbling on the Ds throwing Trump out of office when he either shuts the borders and airtravel even to US citizen and illegally diverts money to the border wall without Congressional authorization (all in the midst of the February impeachment), or when he disregards the Supreme Court rulings on the limits of his executive power and dares Roberts to go enforce his ruling, or where he has to deploy the National Guard to suppress the riots.  It gets too outlandish from there, ending with Trump canceling the elections, and I keep scrapping it, knowing espola will just call it coocoo.


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## watfly (Apr 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Asian cultures, even Aussies and Kiwis, are more able to bite the bullet and just do the damn restrictions knowing it will make things get worked out faster. Here, the land of death cults and extreme selfishness, not so much.


There is nothing that exhibits extreme selfishness more so than preventing children from attending school and making our youth bare the biggest burden of the pandemic lockdowns despite having an infinitesimal risk from the virus.


----------



## espola (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> True thing which is sort of funny.  I keep starting a post with an alternate history of the US where they do everything you want them to but everytime I start it it runs off the rails quickly.  I keep stumbling on the Ds throwing Trump out of office when he either shuts the borders and airtravel even to US citizen and illegally diverts money to the border wall without Congressional authorization (all in the midst of the February impeachment), or when he disregards the Supreme Court rulings on the limits of his executive power and dares Roberts to go enforce his ruling, or where he has to deploy the National Guard to suppress the riots.  It gets too outlandish from there, ending with Trump canceling the elections, and I keep scrapping it, knowing espola will just call it coocoo.


Coocoo


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Coocoo


I welcome anyone, including yourself, to try it.  It gets scifi coocoo so long as the alternate history assumes Trump is president, the Ds and media are so hostile to him and will do everything possible (within stretched reason) to remove him and/or win the election, China initially lies about the outbreak, the US is geographically the same and the beginning of the outbreak takes the same pattern, and the US Constitution remains in place.


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## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> True thing which is sort of funny.  I keep starting a post with an alternate history of the US where they do everything you want them to but everytime I start it it runs off the rails quickly.  I keep stumbling on the Ds throwing Trump out of office when he either shuts the borders and airtravel even to US citizen and illegally diverts money to the border wall without Congressional authorization (all in the midst of the February impeachment), or when he disregards the Supreme Court rulings on the limits of his executive power and dares Roberts to go enforce his ruling, or where he has to deploy the National Guard to suppress the riots.  It gets too outlandish from there, ending with Trump canceling the elections, and I keep scrapping it, knowing espola will just call it coocoo.


How about I speak for me and you speak for you?  It is simpler that way.

If it’s about individual rights and individual responsibility, then fine.  Let each of us own up to the responsibility half, too.

How many indoor gatherings have you been to in the last 13 months?   Doesn’t matter what it was: restaurant, hotel, vodka tasting, bar visit, dinner party, casino, hotel, etc.  Count everything except grocery stores, doctor visits, and your own employment.

1?  10?  100?

I know.  You want to point out my one.  Fair enough.  What’s your number?  How many indoor gatherings have you hosted or attended? 

If, as I suspect, you’ve been part of over 50 indoor gatherings, then take a long look in the mirror and think about why this plague is still with us.  How many people are there who had a similar number of unnecessary indoor gatherings?  Why would you expect the lockdown to work when that many people ignore the advice that often?


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## watfly (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> How about I speak for me and you speak for you?  It is simpler that way.
> 
> If it’s about individual rights and individual responsibility, then fine.  Let each of us own up to the responsibility half, too.
> 
> ...


You make it sound like indoor gatherings cause Covid, they clearly don't.    They may be a source of outbreaks if you were stupid about it, but I'm betting that most transmissions occurred at home.  Being indoors in public is a weak factor for catching Covid there are other much stronger factors at play.  A "Stay at Home Order" was the worst imaginable response to the pandemic.  It should have been a "Get out and Get Some Fresh Air and Excercise Order".  Beaches, public parks and other outside public areas were closed.  People were forced into their homes by clueless political decisions and fear mongering.

If you count hardware stores or general merchandise stores I'm way over 100 and the rest of my family is pretty high as well.  250+ days in the office spread out, but with no masks.   Multiple outdoor social gatherings, a number of flights and a couple hotels.  No Covid.  Did I get lucky, maybe.  Or are the odds just not very high if I wore a mask and maintained distance in public indoor spaces?  Friends and family followed a similar approach, no Covid.  I approached the pandemic like an adult that understands that life has risks, but is responsible for his own decisions.

If we have another pandemic of this nature (generally harmless, but potentially fatal to a small segment of the population), good luck getting the population to follow the stricter guidelines you propose.  Fool me once...


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> How about I speak for me and you speak for you?  It is simpler that way.
> 
> If it’s about individual rights and individual responsibility, then fine.  Let each of us own up to the responsibility half, too.
> 
> ...


Until my folks were fully vaccinated, and beginning when I went into quarantine when I fell ill and didn't want to get others ill, zero.   Remember, though, not everyone has the benefit of working from home or our lovely southern California weather.

Now you....vaccination status and when please.

Again, changing the US Constitution, turning us into an island, or turning us into polite decent folks like the Japanese is not a policy prescription.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> You make it sound like indoor gatherings cause Covid, they clearly don't.    They may be a source of outbreaks if you were stupid about it, but I'm betting that most transmissions occurred at home.  Being indoors in public is a weak factor for catching Covid there are other much stronger factors at play.  A "Stay at Home Order" was the worst imaginable response to the pandemic.  It should have been a "Get out and Get Some Fresh Air and Excercise Order".  Beaches, public parks and other outside public areas were closed.  People were forced into their homes by clueless political decisions and fear mongering.
> 
> If you count hardware stores or general merchandise stores I'm way over 100 and the rest of my family is pretty high as well.  250+ days in the office spread out, but with no masks.   Multiple outdoor social gatherings, a number of flights and a couple hotels.  No Covid.  Did I get lucky, maybe.  Or are the odds just not very high if I wore a mask and maintained distance in public indoor spaces?  Friends and family followed a similar approach, no Covid.  I approached the pandemic like an adult that understands that life has risks, but is responsible for his own decisions.
> 
> If we have another pandemic of this nature (generally harmless, but potentially fatal to a small segment of the population), good luck getting the population to follow the stricter guidelines you propose.  Fool me once...


Another major source besides in home transmission that dad4 doesn't like to talk about, because it's not as convenient as let the bars and restaurants drown, is work....whether hospital, factory, farm, doctor's office, slaughterhouse, restaurant kitchen, or retail.


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## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Until my folks were fully vaccinated, and beginning when I went into quarantine when I fell ill and didn't want to get others ill, zero.   Remember, though, not everyone has the benefit of working from home or our lovely southern California weather.
> 
> Now you....vaccination status and when please.
> 
> Again, changing the US Constitution, turning us into an island, or turning us into polite decent folks like the Japanese is not a policy prescription.



Ah scratch that.  One of the kids just reminded me in December the plumbing broke.  We vacated the house leaving the windows open so the plumbers can work....indoor gathering?  He also reminds me that it was his job to go into the pharmacy to get my folks restricted meds if that counts as an indoor gathering.


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## Kicker4Life (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You yourself said Japan did a more mild lockdown than we did.  That seems to be mild NPI + masks.
> 
> The difference may be that Japan actually followed their rules.
> 
> ...


So your comping the US with an island with roughly 50% of the population size.....enough said.


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## Kicker4Life (Apr 19, 2021)

crush said:


> Thoughts = Choice = Actions = Consequences


You forgot the last step:

Consequences = complaining it’s not fair.


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## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Until my folks were fully vaccinated, and beginning when I went into quarantine when I fell ill and didn't want to get others ill, zero.   Remember, though, not everyone has the benefit of working from home or our lovely southern California weather.
> 
> Now you....vaccination status and when please.
> 
> Again, changing the US Constitution, turning us into an island, or turning us into polite decent folks like the Japanese is not a policy prescription.


you’ve been stricter than I gave you credit for.

vaccine last week. signed up the second day i was eligible.

i no longer teach in classroom.


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## watfly (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> i no longer teach in classroom.


Don't leave us hanging  None of my business, but I did tell you how many times I've been to Home Depot.


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## Hüsker Dü (Apr 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Coocoo


Fear, loathing and intentional partisan disingenuous rhetoric is the sign of the trumpist.


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## Kicker4Life (Apr 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Fear, loathing and intentional partisan disingenuous rhetoric is the sign of the trumpist.


So @EOTL was a Trumpist?   I think what you said applies to the extremes of BOTH sides!


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## crush (Apr 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> You forgot the last step:
> 
> Consequences = complaining it’s not fair.


Are you ok?  My dd had to deal with a liar Doc who treated woman and girls like shit. He also controlled the Training Center.  I will complain until they say sorry dude.


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## Desert Hound (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> UK learned from them. Can we learn from them, too? Or is it more important to make excuses and play political CYA?


Fact free stuff again.

Lets go to real world data.

UK has 1867 deaths per million....which is higher vs the US.

So just being curious as I always am, which policy should the US have mimicked that the UK did?

You mentioned the following:

Some things they did, which we can copy:

Isolate patients.
Restrict travel, including border closures.
Test and trace.
Mask up.
Close indoor gatherings.
Significant penalties for rule violations.

Do us a favor and look at real world data.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> There is nothing that exhibits extreme selfishness more so than preventing children from attending school and making our youth bare the biggest burden of the pandemic lockdowns despite having an infinitesimal risk from the virus.


And guess who has been the biggest advocate of that here on our beloved forums?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> i no longer teach in classroom.


Still scared? You have been vaccinated #1. 

#2 I would wager you are in your late 30s or 40s which means pretty much no risk if vaccinated. 

#3 Will you ditch the mask now?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Fear, loathing and intentional partisan disingenuous rhetoric is the sign of the trumpist.


Again you and dad4 are welcome to set out how your utopia might have worked out in an alternate history.  @dad4 apparently has been unable to do  it.  You are more than welcome to.  Only rule is you can't alter the hand that's dealt: China still lies, Trump was the President, Fauci was the advisor, the D Congress is impeaching, Floyd gets killed, the US Constitution is as written and you can't change the Constitution, demographics or density of the US.  You can change how the participants react, but that's the key to how realistic it is.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Fear, loathing and intentional partisan disingenuous rhetoric is the sign of the trumpist.


Kettle meet pot.  Partisan rhetoric, the chosen language of the elite.  Trumpism, Liberal orthodoxy.  Round them all up and put em in a corral.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Fear, loathing and intentional partisan disingenuous rhetoric is the sign of the trumpist.


HMM...what exactly were the dems/press saying for the 4 yrs of Trump? 

He has his finger on the button. 
He is just like Hitler. 
He is a Russian stooge. 
and on and on and on. 

The fear and loathing on the news channels and in print was something to behold. So far from reality it was amazing to watch. 

Just watching the Russian story day after day was all about INTENTIONAL partisan rhetoric. 

But pretend only one side of the political side does what you claim.


----------



## crush (Apr 19, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> HMM...what exactly were the dems/press saying for the 4 yrs of Trump?
> 
> He has his finger on the button.
> He is just like Hitler.
> ...


----------



## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again you and dad4 are welcome to set out how your utopia might have worked out in an alternate history.  @dad4 apparently has been unable to do  it.  You are more than welcome to.  Only rule is you can't alter the hand that's dealt: China still lies, Trump was the President, Fauci was the advisor, the D Congress is impeaching, Floyd gets killed, the US Constitution is as written and you can't change the Constitution, demographics or density of the US.  You can change how the participants react, but that's the key to how realistic it is.


An alternate history?  Not my thing.

Admitting we messed up and trying to do better next time?  Absolutely.

We still aren't there.  The evidence was in months ago on masks and outdoor activity.  It took a recall to get the left to open playgrounds.  The right still won't support masks, no matter what the evidence is.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> An alternate history?  Not my thing.
> 
> Admitting we messed up and trying to do better next time?  Absolutely.
> 
> We still aren't there.  The evidence was in months ago on masks and outdoor activity.  It took a recall to get the left to open playgrounds.  The right still won't support masks, no matter what the evidence is.


You are essentially conceding that given the hand that was dealt, with the actors that were in place, this is what we'd get.  Go back 4 years and not elect Trump or have the left care less about removing him isn't a pandemic prescription.  You don't get to reshuffle the cards that are dealt.  Repeatedly you've called for a variety of actions (ranging from outright Australia) to just close indoor dining and mask up without explaining how it would actually have played out given the real word conditions and cards dealt.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are essentially conceding that given the hand that was dealt, with the actors that were in place, this is what we'd get.  Go back 4 years and not elect Trump or have the left care less about removing him isn't a pandemic prescription.  You don't get to reshuffle the cards that are dealt.  Repeatedly you've called for a variety of actions (ranging from outright Australia) to just close indoor dining and mask up without explaining how it would actually have played out given the real word conditions and cards dealt.


You assume that the rules are neither followed nor enforced.

Under those assumptions, there is no alternative.   If we refuse to follow the rules, and we refuse to allow enforcement, then the rules will fail.

That's true for any set of rules.  Not just covid.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You assume that the rules are neither followed nor enforced.
> 
> Under those assumptions, there is no alternative.   If we refuse to follow the rules, and we refuse to allow enforcement, then the rules will fail.
> 
> That's true for any set of rules.  Not just covid.


I made no such assumption.  The only rule to the game is you can't reshuffle the deck. You stuck at the start with the Constitution, laws, and personalities dealt.  Where you go from there building out a realistic scenario is up to you.  But do away with the two political parties in not a realistic pandemic prescription, anymore than make people angels....you want to rewrite the Constitution in your pandemic scenario go right ahead and show us how it's done, but you start with the Constitution as written.  You start with people as they are.  You are stuck with the overton windows for both  
 Trump and Pelosi.  Every time I've tried to do it I can't get there without having Trump declare martial law and cancel the 2020 election.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I made no such assumption.  The only rule to the game is you can't reshuffle the deck. You stuck at the start with the Constitution, laws, and personalities dealt.  Where you go from there building out a realistic scenario is up to you.  But do away with the two political parties in not a realistic pandemic prescription, anymore than make people angels....you want to rewrite the Constitution in your pandemic scenario go right ahead and show us how it's done, but you start with the Constitution as written.  You start with people as they are.  You are stuck with the overton windows for both
> Trump and Pelosi.  Every time I've tried to do it I can't get there without having Trump declare martial law and cancel the 2020 election.


So, I can have any realistic scenario, so long as I assume that one third of the population (because of their personalities) will refuse to follow basic public health orders?  

And I have to assume the rules are unenforced, because you will say any real enforcement would be unconstitutional.  

So we assume that a hundred million people will gather indoors and ignore masks.

Of course that will fail.  That's kind of my point.  

But it fails because of the decisions we make, not because covid was some unbeatable super virus.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, I can have any realistic scenario, so long as I assume that one third of the population (because of their personalities) will refuse to follow basic public health orders?
> 
> And I have to assume the rules are unenforced, because you will say any real enforcement would be unconstitutional.
> 
> ...


No your scenario has to explain how you’ll persuade the 1/3 to follow the rules or barring that how you would enforce given the constitution and Supreme Court you are dealt.   Again make people angels is not a pandemic solution. Make Americans the Japanese is not a pandemic prescription. Eliminate the d and r parties is not a pandemic prescription. You keep saying it’s possible....once and for all tell us how the great dad4 plan played out in the alternate universe, given the cards dealt.  Again I’ve tried a few times and can’t get there short of trump declaring martial law and canceling the 2020 elections.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

2 stats I saw today. Don’t know if either is accurate. 1 in ny times: 100 Americans today will die in a car crash...1 fully vaccinated person will.

2 California still has more students in virtual only than all other states combined.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You assume that the rules are neither followed nor enforced.
> 
> Under those assumptions, there is no alternative.   If we refuse to follow the rules, and we refuse to allow enforcement, then the rules will fail.
> 
> That's true for any set of rules.  Not just covid.


I have to give you credit for your consistent "this" or "that" approach.  

It looks like it works for you and those who it can work for.  It's unfortunate that those who can afford being locked down can't take a step back and empathize with the majority who can't lockdown.  Look it up, poverty has increased and we've yet to see the real repercussions.  Lockdowns really only do one thing ,make poor people more poor.

It's quite startling that civil liberties are so quickly trampled on without real proof that trampling on them will help the situation.  I'm sure there are articles all over the internet that will support what I say/think and articles that flat out think I'm a wacko.  

It's a testament to our economic engine that we haven't suffered more.  Companies are ready to get back to full capacity and the consumer is ready to spend money.  I get it, many people have died.   I don't see anyone in an uproar about addressing the elephant in the room that has hovered over covid deaths - the general health of American society.  No uproar there.  No effort to help those in need of respite from food deserts in our inner cities.  But let's spend a ton of money on vaccines - big pharma is killing it.  Hats off to them.  Imagine putting in grocery stores in Chicago, Baltimore, Oakland, etc.  Nope, let's scare everyone into lockdowns and get big government to feed big pharma..


----------



## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

happy9 said:


> I have to give you credit for your consistent "this" or "that" approach.
> 
> It looks like it works for you and those who it can work for.  It's unfortunate that those who can afford being locked down can't take a step back and empathize with the majority who can't lockdown.  Look it up, poverty has increased and we've yet to see the real repercussions.  Lockdowns really only do one thing ,make poor people more poor.
> 
> ...


What makes you think we would have had a roaring economy if we had let covid run free starting last March?  People would have retreated from economic life either way.   

Agree that trying to control covid, but failing, is probably the worst policy for the economy.  

I don’t put much stock in the FL example, though.  FL gets to infect people over spring break, then send them back home to stress out some other state’s health care infrastructure.   Most places don’t get to pull that stunt.  If Nebraska infects ten thousand people, it is Nebraska that has to deal with it.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No your scenario has to explain how you’ll persuade the 1/3 to follow the rules or barring that how you would enforce given the constitution and Supreme Court you are dealt.   Again make people angels is not a pandemic solution. Make Americans the Japanese is not a pandemic prescription. Eliminate the d and r parties is not a pandemic prescription. You keep saying it’s possible....once and for all tell us how the great dad4 plan played out in the alternate universe, given the cards dealt.  Again I’ve tried a few times and can’t get there short of trump declaring martial law and canceling the 2020 elections.


Why do I have to do that?  My position is that we, as a people, should have behaved differently.  

If you want to say that the half million deaths are the direct and inevitable result of our collective actions over the past 15 months, I simply agree with you.  That’s _why_ we should have behaved differently.  Our chosen actions harmed us.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why do I have to do that?  My position is that we, as a people, should have behaved differently.
> 
> If you want to say that the half million deaths are the direct and inevitable result of our collective actions over the past 15 months, I simply agree with you.  That’s _why_ we should have behaved differently.  Our chosen actions harmed us.


So in the end (after 1 year and some months back and forth) it turns out you have no real world prescription for having done covid protections better in the United States beyond wishing people were better than they were. Again wishing people to be angels is not a policy prescription. Sums up your entire position over the months right here...in the end we finally get to it


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What makes you think we would have had a roaring economy if we had let covid run free starting last March?  People would have retreated from economic life either way.
> 
> Agree that trying to control covid, but failing, is probably the worst policy for the economy.
> 
> I don’t put much stock in the FL example, though.  FL gets to infect people over spring break, then send them back home to stress out some other state’s health care infrastructure.   Most places don’t get to pull that stunt.  If Nebraska infects ten thousand people, it is Nebraska that has to deal with it.


Neither Florida nor Sweden “let covid run free”.


----------



## crush (Apr 20, 2021)

Happy 4/20.  Don;t worry!!!


----------



## happy9 (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What makes you think we would have had a roaring economy if we had let covid run free starting last March?  People would have retreated from economic life either way.
> 
> Agree that trying to control covid, but failing, is probably the worst policy for the economy.
> 
> I don’t put much stock in the FL example, though.  FL gets to infect people over spring break, then send them back home to stress out some other state’s health care infrastructure.   Most places don’t get to pull that stunt.  If Nebraska infects ten thousand people, it is Nebraska that has to deal with it.


Who's saying we should have let Covid run free?  We can walk and chew gum at the same time.  Covid would have impacted the economy either way.

We are the most innovative country ever.  Safety theater and partisan politics severely hampered our ability to prudently deal with Covid - it's still happening to a large degree now.

Where is the data to support the idea that the FL spring break stressed health care systems throughout the country?  Where is the data that Sturgis severely stressed healthcare systems outside of South Dakota?  You are still using safety theater to drive a very narrow approach to crisis/consequence management.  It drives business owners batty that people don't think they can run their businesses in manner that is prudent and provides them a viable financial landing strip until better conditions persist. 

We were not going and we are not going to "control" covid.  It's apparent from places like CA and MI.  Just curious as to how many businesses in your  neck of the woods will never come back.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Who's saying we should have let Covid run free?  We can walk and chew gum at the same time.  Covid would have impacted the economy either way.
> 
> We are the most innovative country ever.  Safety theater and partisan politics severely hampered our ability to prudently deal with Covid - it's still happening to a large degree now.
> 
> ...


If you aren't saying we should eliminate all restrictions, then what restrictions do you want to keep?


----------



## happy9 (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you aren't saying we should eliminate all restrictions, then what restrictions do you want to keep?


This is where we differ.  Prudent measures established by a responsible business owner and followed by responsible consumers.  If you are vulnerable and not vaccinated, stay home.  There are going to be outliers but I doubt welding people shut in their homes would have worked out well in this country.

The economy and educating our children is what needs to be preserved, and has nothing to do with greed at the local level.  Killing jobs, closing schools sets us back generationally, especially in poorer areas where people live hand to mouth.  It's irresponsible to not consider ways to walk and chew gum. Big  Government usually gets in the way and is incapable of thinking at the grassroots level.

Lockdowns brief well when spoken off of a powerpoint slide by someone in some lab or briefing room who has job security.  It's a myopic way of solving complex socio economic problems that hamper many communities in this country.  Thank goodness we are a federal republic.


----------



## Mad Hatter (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don’t put much stock in the FL example, though. FL gets to infect people over spring break, then send them back home to stress out some other state’s health care infrastructure. Most places don’t get to pull that stunt. If Nebraska infects ten thousand people, it is Nebraska that has to deal with it.


The reason you don't put much stock into FL is that it goes against all your predictions. 

You cannot understand why they are in the same situation as CA, the state who took the closest approach to what you wanted to see happened. 

You are stuck and now are making up all kinds of excuses as to why the states that didn't really lock down didn't have the problems you thought they would. 

You claim to live in the real world and then make up stuff like people went to FL and then went back to their lockdown states and stressed out the local systems there. There have not been any studies on that. 

You keep wishing masks works. And yet Hound pointed out that major organizations have said they don't have evidence they work. 

You keep thinking the pandemic continues on because of 20% ignoring the data and going on. You keep going on about restaurants and bars. And ignore in home transmission and the fact that people are going to work, have to go shopping, etc. 

The sad thing is that you think/thought that government policy would stop the worldwide spread of an airborne disease. 

Most other people on this forum who initially thought gov policy would work like you, have moved on to the realization that no it doesn't. 

You stick with it. Watching you talk to others on here is like trying to have a discussion about religion with a true believer. The Bible says this and you are sticking with it because that is what you believe.

The difference is that the true believers of religion are not trying to shut schools, businesses, mandate masks, etc. In other words I can ignore them, but have to push back against believers like you.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

happy9 said:


> This is where we differ.  Prudent measures established by a responsible business owner and followed by responsible consumers.  If you are vulnerable and not vaccinated, stay home.  There are going to be outliers but I doubt welding people shut in their homes would have worked out well in this country.
> 
> The economy and educating our children is what needs to be preserved, and has nothing to do with greed at the local level.  Killing jobs, closing schools sets us back generationally, especially in poorer areas where people live hand to mouth.  It's irresponsible to not consider ways to walk and chew gum. Big  Government usually gets in the way and is incapable of thinking at the grassroots level.
> 
> Lockdowns brief well when spoken off of a powerpoint slide by someone in some lab or briefing room who has job security.  It's a myopic way of solving complex socio economic problems that hamper many communities in this country.  Thank goodness we are a federal republic.


I didn’t see any list of restrictions you support.   I assume you mean that the government should impose no restrictions at all intended to limit the spread of the virus?

No OSHA requirements for better ventillation at the meat packing plants.  No mask mandates.  No limits on indoor music festivals.  Just each one of us gets to decide for ourself which prudent measures we think are appropriate.  If someone wants to hold a week long indoor convention in Phoenix, then they get to do it, because that is their right as a responsible business owner.  

I’m not sure that works out the way you think it does.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 20, 2021)

Mad Hatter said:


> The reason you don't put much stock into FL is that it goes against all your predictions.
> 
> You cannot understand why they are in the same situation as CA, the state who took the closest approach to what you wanted to see happened.
> 
> ...


His pandemic response of wishing people were just better, more considerate, more like him is the essence of preaching. He’s basically admitted that in the end he’s preaching instead of advocating math and science based solutions.  It’s for that reason the real world mask data is irrelevant to him: in the end it’s the act which is virtuous regardless of whether it has any real world effect. Same with the weekly take out: it’s a ritual act of virtue instead of hey we feel like eating pizza tonight.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> His pandemic response of wishing people were just better, more considerate, more like him is the essence of preaching. He’s basically admitted that in the end he’s preaching instead of advocating math and science based solutions.  It’s for that reason the real world mask data is irrelevant to him: in the end it’s the act which is virtuous regardless of whether it has any real world effect. Same with the weekly take out: it’s a ritual act of virtue instead of hey we feel like eating pizza tonight.


I think that sums up exactly where he is at. 

At this point he is ignoring real world data and instead advocating policies based on what he wished would work.


----------



## watfly (Apr 20, 2021)

happy9 said:


> This is where we differ.  Prudent measures established by a responsible business owner and followed by responsible consumers.  If you are vulnerable and not vaccinated, stay home.  There are going to be outliers but I doubt welding people shut in their homes would have worked out well in this country.
> 
> The economy and educating our children is what needs to be preserved, and has nothing to do with greed at the local level.  Killing jobs, closing schools sets us back generationally, especially in poorer areas where people live hand to mouth.  It's irresponsible to not consider ways to walk and chew gum. Big  Government usually gets in the way and is incapable of thinking at the grassroots level.
> 
> Lockdowns brief well when spoken off of a powerpoint slide by someone in some lab or briefing room who has job security.  It's a myopic way of solving complex socio economic problems that hamper many communities in this country.  Thank goodness we are a federal republic.


Bingo.



Grace T. said:


> His pandemic response of wishing people were just better, more considerate, more like him is the essence of preaching. He’s basically admitted that in the end he’s preaching instead of advocating math and science based solutions.  It’s for that reason the real world mask data is irrelevant to him: in the end it’s the act which is virtuous regardless of whether it has any real world effect. Same with the weekly take out: it’s a ritual act of virtue instead of hey we feel like eating pizza tonight.


and Bingo.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I didn’t see any list of restrictions you support.   I assume you mean that the government should impose no restrictions at all intended to limit the spread of the virus?
> 
> No OSHA requirements for better ventillation at the meat packing plants.  No mask mandates.  No limits on indoor music festivals.  Just each one of us gets to decide for ourself which prudent measures we think are appropriate.  If someone wants to hold a week long indoor convention in Phoenix, then they get to do it, because that is their right as a responsible business owner.
> 
> I’m not sure that works out the way you think it does.


Let's agree to disagree.  Government has a purpose.  OSHA is a regulatory agency that can levy fines for violations.  OSHA is pretty effective at what they do.

You don't have much trust in people. You don't run your own business, you don't have the appropriate experience or context to make sound business decisions.  You assume that short term greed is the priority for business.  It's not. For many it's a lifelong investment and their identity.  Allowing government to snuff out their livelihood is the antithesis of what America is about.

When was the last time you were in a business in FL, AZ, or TX?  You will be surprised at how they are being run.  My wife is in FL right - her surprising feedback is that mask compliance is FL is higher than in AZ.  Businesses know what they have to do to keep their doors open, safely.  I'm sure there are outliers, always will be.  Parts of CA in AUG were not exactly compliant - openly defiant.  

I do appreciate your consistency though, really do.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> His pandemic response of wishing people were just better, more considerate, more like him is the essence of preaching. He’s basically admitted that in the end he’s preaching instead of advocating math and science based solutions.  It’s for that reason the real world mask data is irrelevant to him: in the end it’s the act which is virtuous regardless of whether it has any real world effect. Same with the weekly take out: it’s a ritual act of virtue instead of hey we feel like eating pizza tonight.


The math and science only tells us what we need to do.  It doesn’t tell us how to convince ourselves to do it.

We needed to wear masks and avoid shared indoor spaces.  Still do, for a bit.

There isn't much the scientists can do if we insist on listening to twitter feeds instead of scientific journals.


----------



## Mad Hatter (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We needed to wear masks and avoid shared indoor spaces. Still do, for a bit.


Why do we need to wear masks? 

The NIH, the WHO and the EU all state that they don't have evidence of masks working. 

The first question was a trick question. 

You are a believer despite major gov entities stating they don't have any good evidence they work.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> To be honest, the time for that discussion has past.  Most seniors have, by this point, been offered a vaccine.
> 
> Back the question was valid, we disagreed about _how_ to protect seniors, not whether.  Some believed that it was possible to draw a circle around seniors and keep them isolated from the virus in the community.  Others believed that such a barrier is inherently leaky, and the best way to protect seniors was to reduce overall transmission.
> 
> ...


Back to cases again.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What makes you think we would have had a roaring economy if we had let covid run free starting last March?  People would have retreated from economic life either way.
> 
> Agree that trying to control covid, but failing, is probably the worst policy for the economy.
> 
> I don’t put much stock in the FL example, though.  FL gets to infect people over spring break, then send them back home to stress out some other state’s health care infrastructure.   Most places don’t get to pull that stunt.  If Nebraska infects ten thousand people, it is Nebraska that has to deal with it.


What about all the New Yorkers that planted the seeds in FL to begin with?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Let's agree to disagree.  Government has a purpose.  OSHA is a regulatory agency that can levy fines for violations.  OSHA is pretty effective at what they do.
> 
> You don't have much trust in people. You don't run your own business, you don't have the appropriate experience or context to make sound business decisions.  You assume that short term greed is the priority for business.  It's not. For many it's a lifelong investment and their identity.  Allowing government to snuff out their livelihood is the antithesis of what America is about.
> 
> ...


Last time I was in AZ, TX, or FL?  Pre-covid. 

Airplanes are on my "not until fully vaccinated" list.  I also try to reduce my airplane travel because of climate change, so it was infrequent to begin with.

Agree that CA isn't fully compliant, either.  As you note, it shows.

We disagree on whether it is possible to responsibly operate certain businesses without vaccines.  You believe yes and I believe no.  It leads to different conclusions.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The math and science only tells us what we need to do.  It doesn’t tell us how to convince ourselves to do it.
> 
> We needed to wear masks and avoid shared indoor spaces.  Still do, for a bit.
> 
> There isn't much the scientists can do if we insist on listening to twitter feeds instead of scientific journals.


Like this "science"? When people talk about "experts" this one is at the top of their list. Do you have any evidence of scientists that actually called him out on this when he made this prediction?









						Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
					

Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.




					www.cnbc.com
				




“You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher —  450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

Mad Hatter said:


> Why do we need to wear masks?
> 
> The NIH, the WHO and the EU all state that they don't have evidence of masks working.
> 
> ...


Look, if you won't believe the epidemiologists, you're not going to believe me.

I've read enough studies to conclude that masks are a low cost, low annoyance, way to reduce transmission.  Together with vaccines, they have a cost/benefit ratio better than anything else we've done.

I'm not going to spend time figuring out exactly how you are misinterpreting to he NIH or EU reports. 

 You want to believe random twitter feeds that misrepresent the science?  I can't stop you.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Last time I was in AZ, TX, or FL?  Pre-covid.
> 
> Airplanes are on my "not until fully vaccinated" list.  I also try to reduce my airplane travel because of climate change, so it was infrequent to begin with.
> 
> ...


Now, in FL.  Mask compliance is higher than in many places.  They get it.  

Does it really lead to different conclusions?  Where was the death and destruction after Sturgis?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Like this "science"? When people talk about "experts" this one is at the top of their list. Do you have any evidence of scientists that actually called him out on this when he made this prediction?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I said I disagreed with his assessment when you first brought it up.  I don't recall others echoing it.  Or calling him out on it. 

Turns out he was right for MI and maybe MN.  Wrong for the other 48 states.

My claim was that we would have a foothill, but no mountain.  I also claimed that CA would hover at the red/purple boundary for a while after restaurants opened. 

 Turns out, we are hovering at the red/orange boundary- which is where the old red/purple boundary used to be.

I don't feel I was all that far off.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The math and science only tells us what we need to do.  It doesn’t tell us how to convince ourselves to do it.
> 
> We needed to wear masks and avoid shared indoor spaces.  Still do, for a bit.
> 
> There isn't much the scientists can do if we insist on listening to twitter feeds instead of scientific journals.


Yes, I've asked you several times though, with the benefit of quarterbacking, given the cards dealt and the limits of the overton windows, what should have been done and how would it have gone down.  Other than to preach to us here, you have no answer beyond "do better".


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 20, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> HMM...what exactly were the dems/press saying for the 4 yrs of Trump?
> 
> He has his finger on the button.
> He is just like Hitler.
> ...


When someone tells you who they are, over and over and over again, believe them.


----------



## Mad Hatter (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I've read enough studies to conclude that masks are a low cost, low annoyance, way to reduce transmission. Together with vaccines, they have a cost/benefit ratio better than anything else we've done.
> 
> I'm not going to spend time figuring out exactly how you are misinterpreting to he NIH or EU reports.


You just don't want to look.

From the NIH.

"Although, scientific evidence supporting facemasks’ efficacy is lacking, adverse physiological, psychological and health effects are established."

Tell us how that is being misinterpreted?

Or

"The physical properties of medical and non-medical facemasks suggest that facemasks are ineffective to block viral particles due to their difference in scales [16], [17], [25]. "

The above is not parsing words. They are pretty clear about what they are saying. 

If you want to look at the EU version or the WHO version I can pull up specific quotes where they state that they just cannot show efficacy of masks. 

The real issue is you refuse to acknowledge what the main gov bodies are putting about about masks because it goes against what you believe.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 20, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> When someone tells you who they are, over and over and over again, believe them.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> His pandemic response of wishing people were just better, more considerate, more like him is the essence of preaching. He’s basically admitted that in the end he’s preaching instead of advocating math and science based solutions.  It’s for that reason the real world mask data is irrelevant to him: in the end it’s the act which is virtuous regardless of whether it has any real world effect. Same with the weekly take out: it’s a ritual act of virtue instead of hey we feel like eating pizza tonight.


Our leaders failed us, period.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 20, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Our leaders failed us, period.


O.k.  So please tell us how in this alternate universe they could have succeeded, given the cards dealt.


----------



## N00B (Apr 20, 2021)

So the discussion has turned from arguing what we should do in 2020 to what we should have done in 2021?


----------



## N00B (Apr 20, 2021)

Bad news... science and masks?









						Prominent San Diego Scientists Argue COVID-19 Spreads Like Secondhand Smoke
					

Two San Diego researchers hope a new peer-reviewed article helps them convince federal officials to change their opinion of how COVID-19 spreads.




					www.kpbs.org


----------



## N00B (Apr 20, 2021)

Then there’s this... potential bad news, but we all saw it coming.









						Texas A&M Lab Identifies New COVID-19 Variant; Genome Suggests Potential Resistance To Antibodies
					

A single case led to only mild symptoms. The variant is named BV-1 for its Brazos Valley origin.




					today.tamu.edu


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes, I've asked you several times though, with the benefit of quarterbacking, given the cards dealt and the limits of the overton windows, what should have been done and how would it have gone down.  Other than to preach to us here, you have no answer beyond "do better".


That’s because, as soon as I mention any idea of fines for public health violations, you say it would be unconstitutional.

I don’t believe your interpretation.  The supreme court upheld fines for public health violations back in 1905.   That was a vaccine mandate.  If a vaccine mandate is legal, then I‘m sure a mask mandate would be legal.  

But, within your assumption that all federal public health mandates are illegal, there isn’t much to say.  You’re asking me to come up with a policy, except that the policy can’t require masks, can’t close indoor gatherings, can’t close casinos, can’t limit churches, and can’t be enforced.

If we assume your interpretation, then no sensible policy is possible.  You’ve just banned all sensible measures and all enforcement mechanisms.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 20, 2021)

From AZ.


"Dear Colleagues & Families,

Thank you for your patience with us since yesterday, when the Governor announced he is rescinding the mask requirements for K-12 schools."


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> So the discussion has turned from arguing what we should do in 2020 to what we should have done in 2021?


Opposite.  Instead of what we should do in 2021 to what should have/could have been done in 2020.  But yet, even with the benefit now of hindsight, they can't articulate a successful scenario.  Whether dad4 likes it or not, the government's role in this is just about done (the last sort of hill being whether they'll do a vaccine mandate or passport), leaving us largely with Monday morning quarterbacking with the true believers.



dad4 said:


> That’s because, as soon as I mention any idea of fines for public health violations, you say it would be unconstitutional.
> 
> I don’t believe your interpretation.  The supreme court upheld fines for public health violations back in 1905.   That was a vaccine mandate.  If a vaccine mandate is legal, then I‘m sure a mask mandate would be legal.
> 
> ...


Well, the clearest evidence of it that Biden didn't implement one.  You think one could have gotten past the Roberts court?  Fine, show us how it plays out in your scenario particularly when DeSantis tells Trump to go stuff it.  We can all then judge how realistically your scenario would have played out.  But have the cajones to lay out your prescription, given the cards at the start of this, and how it would have played out instead of just preaching from the pulpit.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> Bad news... science and masks?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not really news.  Just the umpteenth report that it’s all about the aerosols.

Still means outside, distance, masks, and get your vaccine when you are allowed.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I said I disagreed with his assessment when you first brought it up.  I don't recall others echoing it.  Or calling him out on it.
> 
> Turns out he was right for MI and maybe MN.  Wrong for the other 48 states.
> 
> ...


Sorry if I wasn't clear on my point. I remember you disagreeing with the dire assessment as well as your foothill prediction.

This was directed at "experts" who many blindly follow because they are experts. My point is that if the experts had real knowledge that is useful for policy, why weren't they coming out and saying this scenario does not seem likely? We were 10 months into the pandemic and the prediction was 6-14 weeks out. This was headline news from someone who advises presidents. So, where were all the experts who knew better? Where was the reasonable dissent to Osterholm's prediction?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really news.  Just the umpteenth report that it’s all about the aerosols.
> 
> Still means outside, distance, masks, and get your vaccine when you are allowed.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> So the discussion has turned from arguing what we should do in 2020 to what we should have done in 2021?


#progress


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> Bad news... science and masks?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting stuff. This goes right along with the cases that spread in AU I posted a week or so ago - inside a hotel, separate rooms, both rooms had doors open for about 50 seconds IIRC.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> O.k.  So please tell us how in this alternate universe they could have succeeded, given the cards dealt.


I am no fan of the "bad orange man" but he was definitely handed a shit sandwich. Talk about everything going bad at once.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 20, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I am no fan of the "bad orange man" but he was definitely handed a shit sandwich. Talk about everything going bad at once.


The world was handed that sandwich.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 20, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The world was handed that sandwich.


The PRC also lovingly put some expired mayo on it for us., then bought up all the barf bags.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Sorry if I wasn't clear on my point. I remember you disagreeing with the dire assessment as well as your foothill prediction.
> 
> This was directed at "experts" who many blindly follow because they are experts. My point is that if the experts had real knowledge that is useful for policy, why weren't they coming out and saying this scenario does not seem likely? We were 10 months into the pandemic and the prediction was 6-14 weeks out. This was headline news from someone who advises presidents. So, where were all the experts who knew better? Where was the reasonable dissent to Osterholm's prediction?


If some experts were going to take Osterholm to task for an overstated prediction, I doubt they would choose to do it in public.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Opposite.  Instead of what we should do in 2021 to what should have/could have been done in 2020.  But yet, even with the benefit now of hindsight, they can't articulate a successful scenario.  Whether dad4 likes it or not, the government's role in this is just about done (the last sort of hill being whether they'll do a vaccine mandate or passport), leaving us largely with Monday morning quarterbacking with the true believers.
> 
> 
> 
> Well, the clearest evidence of it that Biden didn't implement one.  You think one could have gotten past the Roberts court?  Fine, show us how it plays out in your scenario particularly when DeSantis tells Trump to go stuff it.  We can all then judge how realistically your scenario would have played out.  But have the cajones to lay out your prescription, given the cards at the start of this, and how it would have played out instead of just preaching from the pulpit.


Why would Biden push for an executive mask requitement that takes 4 months to litigate and becomes obsolete in 3?

Even then, red states wouldn't enforce it.   

That is not to say the house and senate shouldn't pass a mask mandate as a law.  It's just a realistic assessment that the Republicans would block it in the senate.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> O.k.  So please tell us how in this alternate universe they could have succeeded, given the cards dealt.


In your all or nothing world?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why would Biden push for an executive mask requitement that takes 4 months to litigate and becomes obsolete in 3?
> 
> Even then, red states wouldn't enforce it.
> 
> That is not to say the house and senate shouldn't pass a mask mandate as a law.  It's just a realistic assessment that the Republicans would block it in the senate.


So you are conceding I guess that you can not construct a realistic, alternate hypothetical for how things could have played out more to your liking, given the cards that were dealt, because the red states wouldn't enforce it and the Republicans would always block it in the Senate.  Again, you are left with "people should do better", and when it comes down to it, you disapprove of your fellow countrymen (as opposed to say the Aussies or the Japanese).



Hüsker Dü said:


> In your all or nothing world?


In my world things are real.  They have real implications on people and I deal in the possible.  Dad4 seems to like to preach the ideal and talk about the theoretical.  In the real world that's not very useful


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 20, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I am no fan of the "bad orange man" but he was definitely handed a shit sandwich. Talk about everything going bad at once.


Are you going to excuse is incompetence and even worse lack of effort?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So you are conceding I guess that you can not construct a realistic, alternate hypothetical for how things could have played out more to your liking, given the cards that were dealt, because the red states wouldn't enforce it and the Republicans would always block it in the Senate.  Again, you are left with "people should do better", and when it comes down to it, you disapprove of your fellow countrymen (as opposed to say the Aussies or the Japanese).
> 
> 
> 
> In my world things are real.  They have real implications on people and I deal in the possible.  Dad4 seems to like to preach the ideal and talk about the theoretical.  In the real world that's not very useful


You are the one that started the whole  “I started a post about how things could have been, but stopped”. Your presumed theoretical was chock full of assumptions from the get go. Pretty silly, but then again, that’s what trump apologist have to do.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If some experts were going to take Osterholm to task for an overstated prediction, I doubt they would choose to do it in public.


Their silence undermines all epidemiologists.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 20, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You are the one that started the whole  “I started a post about how things could have been, but stopped”. Your presumed theoretical was chock full of assumptions from the get go. Pretty silly, but then again, that’s what trump apologist have to do.


1. We don't know what dad4's vision is.  He's never really laid it out.  Like a good preacher it's filled with platitudes and big ideas, short on actual practical solutions.  It's ranged from yeah let's do Australia, to let's just mask up and close indoor dining.
2.  So it leaves me to guess what dad4's vision is.  I took something in between.  Given the hand that dealt, even with a deus ex machina of Trump and Pelosi having double heart attacks, I can't build a hypothetical where something approaching dad4's supposed vision plays out to fruition.
3. He's been invited to build it and we can all critique it to how real a possibility it would be.  He's declined and even conceded his mask mandate wouldn't have worked.  So all that he has left is to preach and wish everyone was just so gosh darn better.
4. He's got the advantage that this is all Monday Morning quarterbacking.  His own goalpost ranged at the beginning from test and trace (where'd that go?) to shut down the airlines.  It should be easier with the benefit of hindsight but he can't even do it then.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 20, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Are you going to excuse is incompetence and even worse lack of effort?


Not at all. Where did I say that? I was just cosigning Grace's comment about him being dealt a shitty hand. Not once would I ever excuse anything he did (or didn't do.)


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Their silence undermines all epidemiologists.


True.

But these are not politicians.  They are geeks.

If you treat them like shit, they ignore you and go back to talking to other geeks.  Which is what we've done, and what they are doing.

They aren't going to go on Fox News and create a storyline about dissent within the scientific community.  There isn't any point in that.

They'll call up people they respect to talk through some obscure but useful thing, like different models for the time lag between sewage RNA numbers and case counts.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 1. We don't know what dad4's vision is.  He's never really laid it out.  Like a good preacher it's filled with platitudes and big ideas, short on actual practical solutions.  It's ranged from yeah let's do Australia, to let's just mask up and close indoor dining.
> 2.  So it leaves me to guess what dad4's vision is.  I took something in between.  Given the hand that dealt, even with a deus ex machina of Trump and Pelosi having double heart attacks, I can't build a hypothetical where something approaching dad4's supposed vision plays out to fruition.
> 3. He's been invited to build it and we can all critique it to how real a possibility it would be.  He's declined and even conceded his mask mandate wouldn't have worked.  So all that he has left is to preach and wish everyone was just so gosh darn better.
> 4. He's got the advantage that this is all Monday Morning quarterbacking.  His own goalpost ranged at the beginning from test and trace (where'd that go?) to shut down the airlines.  It should be easier with the benefit of hindsight but he can't even do it then.


You want to know what I would do, subject to the constraint that I can't do anything.

That is a pointless game, and I told you so.


----------



## N00B (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really news.  Just the umpteenth report that it’s all about the aerosols.
> 
> Still means outside, distance, masks, and get your vaccine when you are allowed.


Yes, a report from the scientific community that it is aerosols.

Also pointing how useless ‘facial coverings’ are as a result.  I don’t recall advocating for a respirator mandate for the vulnerable even in your dismissive reply.


----------



## N00B (Apr 20, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> #progress


Yup, means everyone has moved into a post crisis frame of mind as is appropriate.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> Yes, a report from the scientific community that it is aerosols.
> 
> Also pointing how useless ‘facial coverings’ are as a result.  I don’t recall advocating for a respirator mandate for the vulnerable even in your dismissive reply.


The researcher in the article you linked to still recommended masks.

Your description of "useless" does not appear to be shared by the scientist.  If he meant to say "useless", he would not have endorsed them.

I do agree that masks are no substitute for proper ventilation or being outside.  They are a moderate help.


----------



## N00B (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The researcher in the article you linked to still recommended masks.
> 
> Your description of "useless" does not appear to be shared by the scientist.  If he meant to say "useless", he would not have endorsed them.
> 
> I do agree that masks are no substitute for proper ventilation or being outside.  They are a moderate help.


I was quite specific about my diction.  ‘Facial coverings’...

The scientists were clear.

quote:

“They are quite a bit behind the science,” Jimenez said. “And they need to update their recommendations because some of the things they are saying are not sufficient. The masks that people who are at high risk are wearing need to be improved.”


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> I was quite specific about my diction.  ‘Facial coverings’...
> 
> The scientists were clear.
> 
> ...


That is different from saying that masks are useless.

It just means the cloth mask may be appropriate for sidelines at the soccer game, but you want a surgical or N95 mask for higher risk areas.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> True.
> 
> But these are not politicians.  They are geeks.
> 
> ...


Are you saying CNN (or any of the outlets that posted his comments) wouldn't have presented a differing opinion from another expert? Maybe, but that's a sad commentary on our news media if that was the case. Also, I'd say that if you and I can disagree, as we have, on a more or less anonymous forum and still stay civil, so can epidemiologists knowing that their comments won't be anonymous.

Also, if they keep to themselves, all the stuff they are doing isn't nearly as useful as it could be. Maybe you should expect more from them as well.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Are you saying CNN (or any of the outlets that posted his comments) wouldn't have presented a differing opinion from another expert? Maybe, but that's a sad commentary on our news media if that was the case. Also, I'd say that if you and I can disagree, as we have, on a more or less anonymous forum and still stay civil, so can epidemiologists knowing that their comments won't be anonymous.
> 
> Also, if they keep to themselves, all the stuff they are doing isn't nearly as useful as it could be. Maybe you should expect more from them as well.


I agree.  It would be nice if epidemiologists did a better job explaining their work.

Maybe next time.  

This time, we had the president, several congressmen, and multiple news outlets smear scientists because they did not like the opinions presented.  Remember Rand Paul's line of questioning?  Who wants to sit in that chair when they could be playing with spreadsheets?

After a few rounds like that, most sane people will start to avoid both politicians and the press.  You're left with the political ones like Fauci and Osterholm.

If you want to know what the numbers geeks think, you'll have to read their papers.  They aren't going to present themselves for abuse on Fox and CSpan.


----------



## N00B (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That is different from saying that masks are useless.
> 
> It just means the cloth mask may be appropriate for sidelines at the soccer game, but you want a surgical or N95 mask for higher risk areas.


Indeed, back when there was a crisis and the ‘facial coverings’ were wrongly recommended, just as they still are today under ‘masking mandates’.

I think your best response to Grace T’s hypothetical is the suggestion you actually made many months ago in a deleted thread to ship n95’s to the US population.  Then the stop the spread may have been effective enough to implement track and trace.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You want to know what I would do, subject to the constraint that I can't do anything.
> 
> That is a pointless game, and I told you so.


You want to change the conditions of reality which is the pointless game.  You play the hand you are dealt not the hand you wish you had.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> Indeed, back when there was a crisis and the ‘facial coverings’ were wrongly recommended, just as they still are today under ‘masking mandates’.
> 
> I think your best response to Grace T’s hypothetical is the suggestion you actually made many months ago in a deleted thread to ship n95’s to the US population.  Then the stop the spread may have been effective enough to implement track and trace.


We actually agreed on that recommend.

here’s the other issue with masks not fully appreciated. We don’t know what the interval of infection is.  From the hotel story kicking posted it is likely quite short. If an n95 is worn and fitted properly the models say it’s about 95% effective at blocking. The question then becomes over how many intervals/how many exposures.  At the grocery store it may only be 1, at a doctors waiting room maybe 2, working at a warehouse maybe 10s of exposures, a 7 hour flight in the hundreds.  Mask has to work every time to prevent you from getting sick. The longer the exposure the more chances for failure.  Since aerosolizes the cloth mask does even worse at 40% since that’s several rolls of that dice you have to beat with the 40%. Add now human failure over time such as removing or touching the mask or the mask getting wet and that’s the explanation for why masks don’t seem to be working in the real world while on paper the n95s should be very effective.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We actually agreed on that recommend.
> 
> here’s the other issue with masks not fully appreciated. We don’t know what the interval of infection is.  From the hotel story kicking posted it is likely quite short. If an n95 is worn and fitted properly the models say it’s about 95% effective at blocking. The question then becomes over how many intervals/how many exposures.  At the grocery store it may only be 1, at a doctors waiting room maybe 2, working at a warehouse maybe 10s of exposures, a 7 hour flight in the hundreds.  Mask has to work every time to prevent you from getting sick. The longer the exposure the more chances for failure.  Since aerosolizes the cloth mask does even worse at 40% since that’s several rolls of that dice you have to beat with the 40%. Add now human failure over time such as removing or touching the mask or the mask getting wet and that’s the explanation for why masks don’t seem to be working in the real world while on paper the n95s should be very effective.


Review your earlier comments on viral load.

Infection is scalar, not boolean.  reducing viral load is important.


----------



## N00B (Apr 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Review your earlier comments on viral load.
> 
> Infection is scalar, not boolean.  reducing viral load is important.


Perhaps viral load is important.  It’s amongst the questions still posed by scientists.









						We know a lot about Covid-19. Experts have many more questions
					

STAT asked experts to explain the question they would most like to have answered about Covid. Here's what they had to say.




					www.statnews.com
				




The unknowns that perplex scientists about Covid-19 at this point are interesting at the very least.

Now that we’re winding down into postmortem discussions....

It is interesting that many of these questions remain.  Surely there are plausible theories ex viral load (would explain indoor vs outdoor transmission), but policy and thus compliance hasn’t followed these theories per se.



			Redirect Notice


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Review your earlier comments on viral load.
> 
> Infection is scalar, not boolean.  reducing viral load is important.


I agree with this, BUT the two articles also point to it probably doesn’t take much to make you sick. Also that goes to death and hospitalizations not cases which is a further indication masks were never going to control the thing...just potentially make illness less severe (which the vaccines also do making masks superfluous now).   I think it was kicking that pointed this out months ago.

my point was, however, that the thing being overlooked (and why many of the airline mask studies are hot garbage) is that time is also a factor.  An n95 might stop 1 infection incident walking through a grocery store...a cloth mask not withstanding the holes in the mask might still do it too notwithstanding the aerosolized particles if you are lucky (a chain link fence after all does stop some bees from flying through it)...but you’d have to be extremely lucky for an n95 to do that on a 7 hour cross continental flight if there’s a sick person behind you.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I agree with this, BUT the two articles also point to it probably doesn’t take much to make you sick. Also that goes to death and hospitalizations not cases which is a further indication masks were never going to control the thing...just potentially make illness less severe (which the vaccines also do making masks superfluous now).   I think it was kicking that pointed this out months ago.
> 
> my point was, however, that the thing being overlooked (and why many of the airline mask studies are hot garbage) is that time is also a factor.  An n95 might stop 1 infection incident walking through a grocery store...a cloth mask not withstanding the holes in the mask might still do it too notwithstanding the aerosolized particles if you are lucky (a chain link fence after all does stop some bees from flying through it)...but you’d have to be extremely lucky for an n95 to do that on a 7 hour cross continental flight if there’s a sick person behind you.


Ok.  That's one more reason to avoid airplanes during respiratory outbreaks.

The argument for masks was never that they protect the individual.  It was always just trying to reduce transmission by some percentage.

The right mental model isn't bees.  It's rabbits.  You're just trying to slow them down enough that each pair of rabbits, on average, has fewer than 2 bunnies.  

So, reducing the litter size by 10% is a decent step in the right direction.  If you can do that several times, you have a chance.

Of course, if you really want to control your rabbit population, you need the spay and neuter clinic.  That's the vaccine.

(Now crush will think the vaccine makes him infertile.  Oh well.)


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ok.  That's one more reason to avoid airplanes during respiratory outbreaks.
> 
> The argument for masks was never that they protect the individual.  It was always just trying to reduce transmission by some percentage.
> 
> ...


The point is between the confirmation of aerolization and now taking into account the time reduction, while they might help in reducing severity of cases by reducing viral loads, the percentage of reduction of transmission is less than the models predict. It explains away the difference between those models and the real world outcomes.


----------



## crush (Apr 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> (Now *crush *will think the vaccine makes him infertile.  Oh well.)


Did someone call on Crush?  Listen Daddy Warbucks, go ahead and take your shots brah.  Do any of these vaccines have baby body parts mixed in the secret sauce?  I heard but I cant confirm.  My DR friend told me to stay away if you have any objections to killing babies before born so evil can make some $$$ on organs and tissues.  I also heard that girls should be very careful as well because__________________________________________________________________.  Talk about being a lab rat ahead of the rats.  No more judgement from me. One of my best friends took his second dose.  I swear dude is not the same.  He told me he had to do it or his wife would not sleep with him.  Sex is a powerful tool or could be used as a weapon or to make a few bucks.  I know someone else on the opposite side.  If you take the vaccine, no sex for you.  Woman hold the power card.  I call it "The POP."


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 21, 2021)

The daily vaccination rate has topped out and is dropping. Just spitballing here but at 50% vaccinated we are now nearly through everyone that really wanted one and are now at the takers or leavers if it’s convenient. The refusal rate among the marines (which tend to skew younger) was at 40% so sounds about right. As time unfolds some portion of that is people who have had covid but don’t want to get the shot right away for a variety of reasons. Throw in the polls that show the j&j incident have increased vaccine hesitancy.  Again just guessing but probably we are 10% hard core refusers and 15% scared but pursuadable and another 15% meh I’ll do it when the time comes and if convenient and if I don’t have to inconvenience myself.

I read somewhere we have 60m doses sitting...some portion of that is reserved second doses...but my guess is still now 1 week away from a full on vaccine glut.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 21, 2021)

crush said:


> Did someone call on Crush?  Listen Daddy Warbucks, go ahead and take your shots brah.  Do any of these vaccines have baby parts mixed in the secret sauce?  I heard but I cant confirm.  My DR friend told me to stay away if you have any objections to killing babies before born so evil can make some $$$ on organs and tissues.  I also heard that girls should be very careful as well because__________________________________________________________________.  Talk about being a lab rat ahead of the rats.  No more judgement from me. One of my best friends took his second dose.  I swear dude is not the same.  He told me he had to do it or his wife would not sleep with him.  Sex is a powerful tool or could be used as a weapon or to make a few bucks.  I know someone else on the opposite side.  If you take the vaccine, no sex for you.  Woman hold the power card.  I call it "The POP."


No baby parts in the secret sauce.  

Fetal stem cell lines from two abortions in the 1960s and 1970s are used to test new vaccines.  The cell lines are used to test the vaccine against a human cell.  So, you could not have made the vaccine without the stem cell line.  However, there are no fetal cell parts in the vaccine itself, and no new abortions are in any way involved in vaccine creation or production.  It all links to those two abortions 40-50 years ago. 

These days, they get stem cells from amniotic fluid if they ever need a new stem cell line.  But they still use the stem cell lines from the 1970s for research.



			https://www.health.nd.gov/sites/www/files/documents/COVID%20Vaccine%20Page/COVID-19_Vaccine_Fetal_Cell_Handout.pdf


----------



## crush (Apr 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The daily vaccination rate has topped out and is dropping. Just spitballing here but at 50% vaccinated we are now nearly through everyone that really wanted one and are now at the takers or leavers if it’s convenient. The refusal rate among the marines (which tend to skew younger) was at 40% so sounds about right. As time unfolds some portion of that is people who have had covid but don’t want to get the shot right away for a variety of reasons. Throw in the polls that show the j&j incident have increased vaccine hesitancy.  Again just guessing but probably we are 10% hard core refusers and 15% scared but pursuadable and another 15% meh I’ll do it when the time comes and if convenient and if I don’t have to inconvenience myself.
> 
> I read somewhere we have 60m doses sitting...some portion of that is reserved second doses...but my guess is still now 1 week away from a full on vaccine glut.


Hardcore % is way higher, trust me.  No one is scared WHO will never take it.  Most I know who are scared just want things to go back to normal and they will do what their told to do in order to be Mr. and Mrs. Normal again.  I say sit back and watch what unfolds.  Praying is always a good thing, just saying, peace Grace


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 21, 2021)

crush said:


> Hardcore % is way higher, trust me.  No one is scared WHO will never take it.  Most I know who are scared just want things to go back to normal and they will do what their told to do in order to be Mr. and Mrs. Normal.  I say sit back and watch what unfolds.  Praying is always a good thing, just saying, peace Grace


Persuadable= gently forced...if you prefer your vodka straight up.


----------



## crush (Apr 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No baby parts in the secret sauce.
> 
> Fetal stem cell lines from two abortions in the 1960s and 1970s are used to test new vaccines.  The cell lines are used to test the vaccine against a human cell.  So, you could not have made the vaccine without the stem cell line.  However, there are no fetal cell parts in the vaccine itself, and no new abortions are in any way involved in vaccine creation or production.  It all links to those two abortions 40-50 years ago.
> 
> ...


Why so many babies killed before born?  Why so many kids go missing everyday in our country?  Why why why?????  Anyway, you're full of shit Dad.  Some dad you are btw.  Any way, carry on with all your lies.  YOU will need to answer to the ONE that matters.  This is truth and take it at face value.  Dont mess with the creator of life bro.  I would stop and not look like a compete selfish scared little man that you are.  You lost!!!


----------



## crush (Apr 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Persuadable= gently forced...if you prefer your vodka straight up.


Yes, if you wanted to go to Yale and that means more than anything to you, you take the shots.  If you know the truth, then you find a new school?  What is truth these days anyways?  Were all on are own and must answer for oneself.  Everyone of us on this planet is being watched from a Hawk right now.  Every thought and decision is recorded.  No one is excusable and no one will escape ultimate judgement.  That is all that gives me hope.  Justice will be served


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The point is between the confirmation of aerolization and now taking into account the time reduction, while they might help in reducing severity of cases by reducing viral loads, the percentage of reduction of transmission is less than the models predict. It explains away the difference between those models and the real world outcomes.


Maybe the aerosolization helps explain the low rates (initially at least) in Africa and India - more "fresh" air, fewer enclosed spaces with AC/Heating.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 21, 2021)

crush said:


> Yes, if you wanted to go to Yale and that means more than anything to you, you take the shots.  If you know the truth, then you find a new school?  What is truth these days anyways?  Were all on are own and must answer for oneself.  Everyone of us on this planet is being watched from a Hawk right now.  Every thought and decision is recorded.  No one is excusable and no one will escape ultimate judgement.  That is all that gives me hope.  Justice will be served


If you want to go to Yale you are crazy coocoo anyways.  If Yale sank to the bottom of the ocean like Atlantis, the world might actually be better off.  Harvard is only slightly better


----------



## watfly (Apr 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you want to go to Yale you are crazy coocoo anyways.  If Yale sank to the bottom of the ocean like Atlantis, the world might actually be better off.  Harvard is only slightly better


Ironic how the woke elite's from these schools, and many other Ivy leagues, effectively ignore the fact that these schools were founded or run by slave traders and owners.  Some funded by slavery.  Princeton even held slave auctions on campus.   Why isn't the woke mob demanding reparations or name changes for these institutions?  Instead we're changing the names of schools named after Washington and Lincoln.  The hypocrisy is comical.

Sorry for the tangential rant.


----------



## crush (Apr 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you want to go to Yale you are crazy coocoo anyways.  If Yale sank to the bottom of the ocean like Atlantis, the world might actually be better off.  Harvard is only slightly better


Is the head of Geronimo story true with those Skulls and Bones dudes?  I heard some coo coo stuff but what is true and not true depends upon where one receives his or her information.  This is starting to all make sense to my brain.  How bout you Grace?


----------



## crush (Apr 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Ironic how the woke elite's from these schools, and many other Ivy leagues, effectively ignore the fact that these schools were founded or run by slave traders and owners.  Some funded by slavery.  Princeton even held slave auctions on campus.   Why isn't the woke mob demanding reparations or name changes for these institutions?  Instead we're changing the names of schools named after Washington and Lincoln.  The hypocrisy is comical.
> 
> Sorry for the tangential rant.


Well, I was told a few years ago that some of these coaches were getting some kick back $$$$ as well.  In fact, one already pleaded guilty for bribes for getting soccer players admitted because.  I dont know bro, let's all set back and watch everyone line up for their shots and see where this all goes.  I love you man


----------



## crush (Apr 21, 2021)

The biggest thing that sucks is if you didn't "pay to play" to play in their league, they ((The Boss of each Club Family)) would make you pay by threats of being black listed because you didnt force your kid to skip HSS so they would make your league #1.  Timing is everything and let's just say be alert and always be ready and on your toes


----------



## dad4 (Apr 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Ironic how the woke elite's from these schools, and many other Ivy leagues, effectively ignore the fact that these schools were founded or run by slave traders and owners.  Some funded by slavery.  Princeton even held slave auctions on campus.   Why isn't the woke mob demanding reparations or name changes for these institutions?  Instead we're changing the names of schools named after Washington and Lincoln.  The hypocrisy is comical.
> 
> Sorry for the tangential rant.


What makes you think the woke mob doesn‘t want reparations and name changes at the Ivies?

Look up Calhoun College at Yale.  (Yale’s dorms are called colleges.).   It is now Hopper College.  

I’m not sure why the renaming would be controversial.  I’d much rather my kids grow up to be like Grace Hopper than John Calhoun.


----------



## watfly (Apr 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look up Calhoun College at Yale.  (Yale’s dorms are called colleges.).   It is now Hopper College.


Well aware of this and goes to further prove my point.  Relatively speaking Yale was far worse than Calhoun when it came to slavery, but yet they made only a token gesture to change the name of a building on campus.  It is intellectually dishonest not to change the name of the school if slavery is the benchmark you are using for woke change.  Of course, we know why they won't change it...alumni $$$.

I'm not personally in favor of name changes in those cases where an individual's behavior was a function of the times, whether its consider right or wrong today.  We evolve over time and that's how it should be.  We shouldn't ignore, erase, rewrite or cancel history.  We should educate.  Let history speak for itself and let us learn from it and not repeat the same mistakes.  Do we learn more from our successes and doing the right thing, or do we learn more from our mistakes and doing the wrong thing? I'd argue its the latter.  It seems that fewer and fewer people can handle the truth and we have to create safe spaces for fear someone will be offended.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'd argue its the latter. It seems that fewer and fewer people can handle the truth and we have to create safe spaces for fear someone will be offended.


In the misguided effort to be inclusive and not offend people, we have instead created millions of people who are offended by everything. They are taught in school at a young age to not do this or say that because it MIGHT offend someone. So now these people as they get older have been conditioned to be easily offended and want to implement more rules to try to prevent that from happening again.


----------



## watfly (Apr 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> In the misguided effort to be inclusive and not offend people, we have instead created millions of people who are offended by everything. They are taught in school at a young age to not do this or say that because it MIGHT offend someone. So now these people as they get older have been conditioned to be easily offended and want to implement more rules to try to prevent that from happening again.


The deadly combo is being offended and entitled.  I'm still searching the Constitution for where it says we have a right to not be offended.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 21, 2021)




----------



## happy9 (Apr 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 10624


stop it...that's funny.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Well aware of this and goes to further prove my point.  Relatively speaking Yale was far worse than Calhoun when it came to slavery, but yet they made only a token gesture to change the name of a building on campus.  It is intellectually dishonest not to change the name of the school if slavery is the benchmark you are using for woke change.  Of course, we know why they won't change it...alumni $$$.
> 
> I'm not personally in favor of name changes in those cases where an individual's behavior was a function of the times, whether its consider right or wrong today.  We evolve over time and that's how it should be.  We shouldn't ignore, erase, rewrite or cancel history.  We should educate.  Let history speak for itself and let us learn from it and not repeat the same mistakes.  Do we learn more from our successes and doing the right thing, or do we learn more from our mistakes and doing the wrong thing? I'd argue its the latter.  It seems that fewer and fewer people can handle the truth and we have to create safe spaces for fear someone will be offended.


Keep Calhoun's page in your history book.  I don't think you could teach the antebellum period without talking about him.

But why name a building after John Calhoun?  

We get to choose whom we honor.  Calhoun is not worthy of such an honor.  

There is a group trying to rename Yale as a whole.  I do not believe they will have much luck.  The brand is, by now, too valuable to destroy, so Elihu is safe.  Calhoun is not thus protected, so he can go.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 10624


I’m in Texas all the time, in-laws, you can have it. If it weren’t for barbecue that place would be uninhabitable. If you can’t make it here go there.


----------



## crush (Apr 22, 2021)

Anyone get one of these zipper mask?


----------



## crush (Apr 22, 2021)

Close up look on how it the zipper works.  This might just be the best invention ever.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I’m in Texas all the time, in-laws, you can have it. If it weren’t for barbecue that place would be uninhabitable. If you can’t make it here go there.


Let's hope Texas continues to have this type of effect on people, for their sake.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 22, 2021)

crush said:


> Close up look on how it the zipper works.  This might just be the best invention ever.
> 
> View attachment 10627


Yeah that’s what it’s for. It’s a repurposed fetish mask.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 22, 2021)

happy9 said:


> Let's hope Texas continues to have this type of effect on people, for their sake.


I know one thing, when the Hispanic population stops being intimidated to vote that state will turn bright blue.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I know one thing, when the Hispanic population stops being intimidated to vote that state will turn bright blue.


Stop living in the past and believing what you are spoon fed from the Dems. 

Nobody is scared or intimidated not to go vote.


----------



## watfly (Apr 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I know one thing, when the Hispanic population stops being intimidated to vote that state will turn bright blue.


Or possibly when Hispanics realize they are only being pandered to by the left and their policies actually hurt Hispanics, the state will turn even redder.  (BTW isn't the correct term Latinos?)  The state is turning less red, but I suspect that's due to the transplants and Austin.  Not knocking Austin, its a fun town.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yeah that’s what it’s for. It’s a repurposed fetish mask.


Maybe that explains why SF has such low case rates....


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 22, 2021)

Interesting theory being floated around that the outbreak in India is tied to planting season and the use of human manure.  Some human manure is used in the US too with corn production and the outbreak in the midwest tracked corn planting season.  Coupled with the aerosolization of the thing, it means with mask policy we were always too focused on one opening in the human body.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1385117249011322882


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 22, 2021)

Chuckle of the day.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383649897367314442


----------



## happy9 (Apr 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> *I know one thing, when the Hispanic population stops being intimidated to vote that state will turn bright blue.*


It's an interesting comment.  I don't know how much time you actually spend in Texas and interact with the "Hispanic" popluation.  My experience in TX has always been that everyone considers themselves Texans first.  Didn't we learn to not stereotype ethnicities?  Are you say that Hispanics in Texas are monolithic?  Have you had the border security conversation with the Hispanic communities along the border?   The bluest parts of TX are as white as the driven snow.  

Explain how exactly the Hispanic population in Texas has been intimidated.


----------



## espola (Apr 22, 2021)

happy9 said:


> It's an interesting comment.  I don't know how much time you actually spend in Texas and interact with the "Hispanic" popluation.  My experience in TX has always been that everyone considers themselves Texans first.  Didn't we learn to not stereotype ethnicities?  Are you say that Hispanics in Texas are monolithic?  Have you had the border security conversation with the Hispanic communities along the border?   The bluest parts of TX are as white as the driven snow.
> 
> Explain how exactly the Hispanic population in Texas has been intimidated.


“If you are a first time voter — say a young voter or a minority voter, a newly enfranchised Hispanic citizen voting for the first time — and you have some aggressive white guy yelling at you as you walk in, it might have a negative effect. It’s meant to dissuade people from voting,”









						Reports of Voter Intimidation at Polling Places in Texas
					

Election official in Dallas County says it’s the worst she’s seen in decades.




					www.propublica.org
				












						A Disturbing Look at Voter Intimidation In Texas
					

Poll worker Carmen Ayala gives an eyewitness account




					zora.medium.com
				












						“Election Integrity” or Voter Intimidation?
					

Texas Republicans are pushing changes to election laws that would let partisan poll watchers record voters in polling places.




					www.texasobserver.org


----------



## happy9 (Apr 22, 2021)

espola said:


> “If you are a first time voter — say a young voter or a minority voter, a newly enfranchised Hispanic citizen voting for the first time — and you have some aggressive white guy yelling at you as you walk in, it might have a negative effect. It’s meant to dissuade people from voting,”
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## whatithink (Apr 22, 2021)

watfly said:


> Or possibly when Hispanics realize they are only being pandered to by the left and their policies actually hurt Hispanics, the state will turn even redder.  (BTW isn't the correct term Latinos?)  The state is turning less red, but I suspect that's due to the transplants and Austin.  Not knocking Austin, its a fun town.


I don't know the specifics of TX, but in AZ the Hispanic vote has definitely swung the state purple, trending blue. They really started to organize in 2010 as a direct result of the state law 1070 which disproportionally impacted the Hispanic community - some would say it was directed at them. Their first major victory was in 2016, getting Sherriff Joe out, then in 2018 swinging the state wide election for Senate to Sinema, and obviously recently turning the state blue for Biden and also getting Mark Kelly elected. 

The redistricting, which is independent in AZ, may turn the state legislatures blue before long.

So TX Hispanics, if organized could majorly impact state wide contests, less so the legislature as obviously that's gerrymandered. 

People can see how organizing and getting out the vote, through years of hard unglamorous graft, can have enormous impact, see GA also.

As an aside, there are a lot of Hispanics whose families go back multiple generations in TX & AZ. Basically, they were here first and stayed. It must be very frustrating, irritating and beyond annoying to be profiled as an immigrant (& illegal to boot), by recent blow ins when your family goes back as far as many do.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 22, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I don't know the specifics of TX, but in AZ the Hispanic vote has definitely swung the state purple, trending blue. They really started to organize in 2010 as a direct result of the state law 1070 which disproportionally impacted the Hispanic community - some would say it was directed at them. Their first major victory was in 2016, getting Sherriff Joe out, then in 2018 swinging the state wide election for Senate to Sinema, and obviously recently turning the state blue for Biden and also getting Mark Kelly elected.
> 
> The redistricting, which is independent in AZ, may turn the state legislatures blue before long.
> 
> ...


Exactly! 300 years of Spanish control.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 22, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I don't know the specifics of TX, but in AZ the Hispanic vote has definitely swung the state purple, trending blue. They really started to organize in 2010 as a direct result of the state law 1070 which disproportionally impacted the Hispanic community - some would say it was directed at them. Their first major victory was in 2016, getting Sherriff Joe out, then in 2018 swinging the state wide election for Senate to Sinema, and obviously recently turning the state blue for Biden and also getting Mark Kelly elected.
> 
> The redistricting, which is independent in AZ, may turn the state legislatures blue before long.
> 
> ...



Errrr.....I'm 2nd gen, kids are 3rd gen.  No one has or would mistake them for a recent immigrant or an illegal, not even in the most hick town of Texas, California or Utah.  If they were looked down upon it would be because they are Latino and the person is just racist, not because they are mistaken for a recent immigrant.  If you are Latino yourself, I appreciate your experience might be different, but even among ourselves it's very easy to tell how long a family has been here.  If you aren't, please don't Latinosplain and check your own privilege.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Errrr.....I'm 2nd gen, kids are 3rd gen.  No one has or would mistake them for a recent immigrant or an illegal, not even in the most hick town of Texas, California or Utah.  If they were looked down upon it would be because they are Latino and the person is just racist, not because they are mistaken for a recent immigrant.  If you are Latino yourself, I appreciate your experience might be different, but even among ourselves it's very easy to tell how long a family has been here.  If you aren't, please don't Latinosplain and check your own privilege.


How can you tell how long a family has been here?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Errrr.....I'm 2nd gen, kids are 3rd gen.  No one has or would mistake them for a recent immigrant or an illegal, not even in the most hick town of Texas, California or Utah.  If they were looked down upon it would be because they are Latino and the person is just racist, not because they are mistaken for a recent immigrant.  If you are Latino yourself, I appreciate your experience might be different, but even among ourselves it's very easy to tell how long a family has been here.  If you aren't, please don't Latinosplain and check your own privilege.


Exactly. My wife is from Mexico and my kids are half Mexican. Nobody ever thinks she or the kids are recent immigrants. 

To be fair the only ones that tell her she is oppressed are some of her D acquaintances who early on when she came here told how hard it is to succeed, etc. Basically pushing the victim route. She ignored them worked hard got an undergraduate and graduate degree and became successful. Most of those people were white and gave advice based on what they heard or assumed. Not actual knowledge. 

Now there is a group of Latinos that make their cash in the grievance industry. Many of them can be found at the universities. She used to get invited for certain events, conferences, etc. She stopped being invited when she didn't follow along with the mindset that success was hindered because of her skin color and country of origin. To be honest she was about done anyway. Got tired of hearing excuses as to why people cannot get ahead. They teach a wrong mindset.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> How can you tell how long a family has been here?


Number of factors, some hard to articulate.  Most prominent is your accent in Spanish and how much your accent has degraded.  The 1st gen looks down on the 3rd gen for that degrading of their Spanish as much as the 3rd gen looks down on the 1st gen for sticking to the old country ways.

But in any case, Latinosplaining is somewhat offensive.  I wouldn't presume to Latinosplain any more than to say I understand the African American experience.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Most prominent is your accent in Spanish and how much your accent has degraded. The 1st gen looks down on the 3rd gen for that degrading of their Spanish as much as the 3rd gen looks down on the 1st gen for sticking to the old country ways.


THIS


----------



## watfly (Apr 22, 2021)

This is only anecdotal because I haven't spent a ton of time in Texas, but I was impressed to find Texas to be much more community integrated than SoCal.   SoCal is well integrated with Latinos, but IMHO not in terms of Blacks.  The Black communities seem to be separate from the White communities for the most part.

I found the areas around Dallas and Austin to be very inclusive of all races.  Maybe I was expecting a redneck mentality based on stereotypes, or maybe its just a facade, but I found those areas to be far more inclusive and neighborly than SoCal.  I think we talk a good game in California, but the reality is different.  Texans seem to walk the talk.  Of course, its hard to beat good ole Southern hospitality.   Texans of all colors are as gracious and hospitable as they come.


----------



## whatithink (Apr 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Errrr.....I'm 2nd gen, kids are 3rd gen.  No one has or would mistake them for a recent immigrant or an illegal, not even in the most hick town of Texas, California or Utah.  If they were looked down upon it would be because they are Latino and the person is just racist, not because they are mistaken for a recent immigrant.  If you are Latino yourself, I appreciate your experience might be different, but even among ourselves it's very easy to tell how long a family has been here.  If you aren't, please don't Latinosplain and check your own privilege.


Not sure how you got to the Latinosplain bit. There's a direct link between my first para, and AZ SB 1070 > Sherriff Joe > last para. There's no privilege in my ethnicity. There's plenty of first hand experience with the opposite though.


----------



## espola (Apr 22, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I don't know the specifics of TX, but in AZ the Hispanic vote has definitely swung the state purple, trending blue. They really started to organize in 2010 as a direct result of the state law 1070 which disproportionally impacted the Hispanic community - some would say it was directed at them. Their first major victory was in 2016, getting Sherriff Joe out, then in 2018 swinging the state wide election for Senate to Sinema, and obviously recently turning the state blue for Biden and also getting Mark Kelly elected.
> 
> The redistricting, which is independent in AZ, may turn the state legislatures blue before long.
> 
> ...





Grace T. said:


> Errrr.....I'm 2nd gen, kids are 3rd gen.  No one has or would mistake them for a recent immigrant or an illegal, not even in the most hick town of Texas, California or Utah.  If they were looked down upon it would be because they are Latino and the person is just racist, not because they are mistaken for a recent immigrant.  If you are Latino yourself, I appreciate your experience might be different, but even among ourselves it's very easy to tell how long a family has been here.  If you aren't, please don't Latinosplain and check your own privilege.


I can't figure out what you are complaining about there.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 22, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Not sure how you got to the Latinosplain bit. There's a direct link between my first para, and AZ SB 1070 > Sherriff Joe > last para. There's no privilege in my ethnicity. There's plenty of first hand experience with the opposite though.


No privilege?  You are a racial minority, a woman, LGB, T or Q, not very well off, a recent immigrant, some religious minority (must be one of the oppressed ones), and handicapable?  Impressive.  I didn't say ethnic privilege...I said privilege.

But in any case, if you aren't Latino, my complaint is you are being presumptuous by speaking about someone else's cultural experience.  If you are African American, I wouldn't presume to tell you about yours.



espola said:


> I can't figure out what you are complaining about there.


Doesn't really surprise anyone.


----------



## whatithink (Apr 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No privilege?  You are a racial minority, a woman, LGB, T or Q, not very well off, a recent immigrant, some religious minority (must be one of the oppressed ones), and handicapable?  Impressive.  I didn't say ethnic privilege...I said privilege.
> 
> But in any case, if you aren't Latino, my complaint is you are being presumptuous by speaking about someone else's cultural experience.  If you are African American, I wouldn't presume to tell you about yours.
> 
> ...


LOL, ok got it. Let's just say that I'm Latino then .

That should end this tangent of the least relevant piece of the post I made.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 22, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1385370029978357768
From our friends that did it, the answer at least for next yea is no.  They can't trust the teacher's union to not do the same as they did this year if there's some variant spike and don't want to disrupt the kids by pulling them in and out.  They are open to it once the kids age out of the private school (e.g., once kid ages out of private elementary going back to public middle).


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1385370029978357768
> From our friends that did it, the answer at least for next yea is no.  They can't trust the teacher's union to not do the same as they did this year if there's some variant spike and don't want to disrupt the kids by pulling them in and out.  They are open to it once the kids age out of the private school (e.g., once kid ages out of private elementary going back to public middle).


I can't think past this weekend, let alone already decide on next school year! I am life-ing wrong apparently.
FTR, we are a mix of charter & public in our household for various reasons. My county is a red pocket, (well- about 50/50 now due to influx of Bay Area techies,) and we're full time, in person. Masks are the only difference from pre-Pandemic times.


----------



## espola (Apr 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No privilege?  You are a racial minority, a woman, LGB, T or Q, not very well off, a recent immigrant, some religious minority (must be one of the oppressed ones), and handicapable?  Impressive.  I didn't say ethnic privilege...I said privilege.
> 
> But in any case, if you aren't Latino, my complaint is you are being presumptuous by speaking about someone else's cultural experience.  If you are African American, I wouldn't presume to tell you about yours.
> 
> ...


Are you claiming an exclusive franchise as the group's Latino spokesperson?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 22, 2021)

espola said:


> Are you claiming an exclusive franchise as the group's Latino spokesperson?


No way.  That why I said if he's Latino, I respect the different perspective.  But given the standard set by the current times, if I'm not allowed to lecture others about their cultural experiences, I certainly don't want to be lectured about mine from someone who isn't.


----------



## espola (Apr 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No way.  That why I said if he's Latino, I respect the different perspective.  But given the standard set by the current times, if I'm not allowed to lecture others about their cultural experiences, I certainly don't want to be lectured about mine from someone who isn't.


I disagree with your presumptions.  Beyond that, the message you complained about was a calmly expressed analysis of the political situation.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 22, 2021)

espola said:


> I disagree with your presumptions.  Beyond that, the message you complained about was a calmly expressed analysis of the political situation.


No the specific part I objected to was a cultural statement.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 22, 2021)

watfly said:


> This is only anecdotal because I haven't spent a ton of time in Texas, but I was impressed to find Texas to be much more community integrated than SoCal.   SoCal is well integrated with Latinos, but IMHO not in terms of Blacks.  The Black communities seem to be separate from the White communities for the most part.
> 
> I found the areas around Dallas and Austin to be very inclusive of all races.  Maybe I was expecting a redneck mentality based on stereotypes, or maybe its just a facade, but I found those areas to be far more inclusive and neighborly than SoCal.  I think we talk a good game in California, but the reality is different.  Texans seem to walk the talk.  Of course, its hard to beat good ole Southern hospitality.   Texans of all colors are as gracious and hospitable as they come.


Dallas lol! And Austin? Islands.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Dallas lol! And Austin? Islands.


Well then there are a lot of islands in that state.


----------



## crush (Apr 23, 2021)




----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1385370029978357768
> From our friends that did it, the answer at least for next yea is no.  They can't trust the teacher's union to not do the same as they did this year if there's some variant spike and don't want to disrupt the kids by pulling them in and out.  They are open to it once the kids age out of the private school (e.g., once kid ages out of private elementary going back to public middle).


There's another factor. For some kids who are independent and academically motivated, it worked well. It also offers a ton of flexibility schedule-wise for a family. Even if it's just 2-3% percent, it will be skimming the cream off the top of public schools. I expect there will be some laws proposed that attempt to limit homeschooling options as there is a lot of money and power at stake.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> There's another factor. For some kids who are independent and academically motivated, it worked well. It also offers a ton of flexibility schedule-wise for a family. Even if it's just 2-3% percent, it will be skimming the cream off the top of public schools. I expect there will be some laws proposed that attempt to limit homeschooling options as there is a lot of money and power at stake.


Yep. The powers that be do not like competition.


----------



## watfly (Apr 23, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Dallas lol! And Austin? Islands.


Where are these islands in SoCal?  I could be wrong, but I'm not aware of any large communities in Socal that are remotely integrated in terms of Black and White.   I'm open to being proven wrong.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> Where are these islands in SoCal?  I could be wrong, but I'm not aware of any large communities in Socal that are remotely integrated in terms of Black and White.   I'm open to being proven wrong.


Moorpark California is actually a very unusual integration of upper middle class whites, middle class African Americans, and working class Latinos.  The African American population is small, as is the community in general, but it's a very rare instance of an actual integrated community, diverse both racially and economically (with houses ranging from mini mansions to trailers).  There's even a small Indian American community due to the mini tech hub in the Conejo.  Even next door Conejo and Simi are segregated into barrios including some gated communities.  I've actually scratched my head from time to time that the school board doesn't explode or the upper middle class flee their mini mansions but somehow they manage to keep a balance and people seem pretty satisfied there and they seem to work out things better politically than either the Conejo or Simi, with both the councils and school boards descending into partisan bitterness in recent years.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> Where are these islands in SoCal?  I could be wrong, but I'm not aware of any large communities in Socal that are remotely integrated in terms of Black and White.   I'm open to being proven wrong.


To answer your question, El Cajon, Clairemont, Eastlake, Escondido, Vista, Poway . . . 
What I meant is Austin and Dallas standout in Texas along with Houston as not like the rest of the state in many ways.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 23, 2021)

This is for @kickingandscreaming 

He likes to point out how wrong this guy is.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 23, 2021)

Cases are rising in Washington and Oregon despite vaccinations and their more stringent than the rest of the country reputation for NPIs (Oregon is considering extending its mask mandate for the foreseeable future).  They escaped with relatively minor winter waves, but like Finland/Norway/Estonia in Europe, it means eventually every area will have its turn, hopefully limited by the vaccine.  India meanwhile is at 300K a day!!!









						Oregon COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Oregon COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Washington COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Washington COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 23, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Apr 23, 2021)

Oregon HS Track Coach Calls For Mask Lunatics To Drop Rule After Runner Suffers 'Complete Oxygen Debt'
					

What does insanity look like? It was on display Wednesday at the Summit High School track in Bend, Oregon where the mask police -- the Oregon Health




					www.outkick.com


----------



## watfly (Apr 23, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> To answer your question, El Cajon, Clairemont, Eastlake, Escondido, Vista, Poway . . .
> What I meant is Austin and Dallas standout in Texas along with Houston as not like the rest of the state in many ways.


You could make a weak argument for Clairemont maybe, but nothing remotely close to the Texas areas.  El Cajon is very integrated in terms of Chaldean and white, Latino, but not in terms of blacks (all sorts of immigrants though in city central).  The black community in El Cajon is limited to some isolated, small pockets.  Those other communities are integrated with Latinos, but not by any stretch of the imagination with Blacks.   Not saying there is anything wrong with any of these communities.   My point is that I appreciated the racial diversity I saw in Texas which is not something I've seen in Socal, but I haven't been to Moorpark.  Again my observations were anecdotal.


----------



## espola (Apr 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 10632


Cruz grandstanding.  Discrimination against Asians (or any race) on the basis of race in college admissions is already illegal.


----------



## espola (Apr 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oregon HS Track Coach Calls For Mask Lunatics To Drop Rule After Runner Suffers 'Complete Oxygen Debt'
> 
> 
> What does insanity look like? It was on display Wednesday at the Summit High School track in Bend, Oregon where the mask police -- the Oregon Health
> ...


"lunatics... mask police...dumb"  -- is that what you call even-handed reporting?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 23, 2021)

This is a very interesting breakdown.  The red states were the leaders in vaccination early on.  Now the blue states are.  No explanation is given but given the red states were basically handing them out with fewer requirements, my guess is that  that we've reached vaccine glut in the more vaccine reluctant red states.





__





						States ranked by percentage of COVID-19 vaccines administered: Nov. 30
					

Wisconsin has administered the highest percentage of COVID-19 vaccines it has received, according to the CDC's COVID-19 vaccine distribution and administration data tracker.




					www.beckershospitalreview.com


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 23, 2021)

espola said:


> "lunatics... mask police...dumb"  -- is that what you call even-handed reporting?


There's nothing even handed in any reporting now days from almost anyone.  Everyone has an ax to grind.


----------



## espola (Apr 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There's nothing even handed in any reporting now days from almost anyone.  Everyone has an ax to grind.


And so you couldn't help yourself.  

Did you know that oxygen molecules are small enough to pass through the mesh of a mask?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 23, 2021)

espola said:


> And so you couldn't help yourself.
> 
> Did you know that oxygen molecules are small enough to pass through the mesh of a mask?


I passed it on, without comment.  My son BTW had a similar experience in a GK session when he was wearing a mask at the request of his partner for some close work together.  If oxygen molecules can pass so readily through I'd think the same for aerosolize virus particles.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> You could make a weak argument for Clairemont maybe, but nothing remotely close to the Texas areas.  El Cajon is very integrated in terms of Chaldean and white, Latino, but not in terms of blacks (all sorts of immigrants though in city central).  The black community in El Cajon is limited to some isolated, small pockets.  Those other communities are integrated with Latinos, but not by any stretch of the imagination with Blacks.   Not saying there is anything wrong with any of these communities.   My point is that I appreciated the racial diversity I saw in Texas which is not something I've seen in Socal, but I haven't been to Moorpark.  Again my observations were anecdotal.


The places I have been in Texas are all pretty segregated, but I don’t live there.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oregon HS Track Coach Calls For Mask Lunatics To Drop Rule After Runner Suffers 'Complete Oxygen Debt'
> 
> 
> What does insanity look like? It was on display Wednesday at the Summit High School track in Bend, Oregon where the mask police -- the Oregon Health
> ...


Yeah that is just stupid. Fact free rules. Teens have ZERO risk.


----------



## espola (Apr 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I passed it on, without comment.  My son BTW had a similar experience in a GK session when he was wearing a mask at the request of his partner for some close work together.  If oxygen molecules can pass so readily through I'd think the same for aerosolize virus particles.


Oxygen molecules have a diameter of about 300 picometers.  Coronavirus diameter is about 100,000 picometers, not surprising since each individual coronavirus is composed of thousands of atoms.   Aerosolized droplets are larger still, whether or not they contain any virus particles.


----------



## espola (Apr 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yeah that is just stupid. Fact free rules. Teens have ZERO risk.


...for sufficiently large values of ZERO.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Oxygen molecules have a diameter of about 300 picometers.  Coronavirus diameter is about 100,000 picometers, not surprising since each individual coronavirus is composed of thousands of atoms.   Aerosolized droplets are larger still, whether or not they contain any virus particles.


It’s why I’ve said we should be doing surgical not cloth. The cloth masks are not designed to distinguish between aerosolized particles and air. Bigger gaps. The surgical and n95 masks are designed specifically with this in mind (though the surgical aren’t very tight fitting...if you can smell someone smoking near you then there’s an issue)


----------



## N00B (Apr 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Cruz grandstanding.  Discrimination against Asians (or any race) on the basis of race in college admissions is already illegal.


Maybe grandstanding... I saw it as more of an affirmative action issue. Protecting Asians from Race based admissions policies would make affirmative action initiatives hard to implement without impacting the Asian community. That also would explain the straight party line vote.


----------



## espola (Apr 23, 2021)

N00B said:


> Maybe grandstanding... I saw it as more of an affirmative action issue. Protecting Asians from Race based admissions policies would make affirmative action initiatives hard to implement without impacting the Asian community. That also would explain the straight party line vote.


The question is better put to Senators Duckworth and Hirono.


----------



## N00B (Apr 23, 2021)

Social Distancing Indoors?









						MIT researchers say time spent indoors increases risk of Covid at 6 feet or 60 feet in new study challenging social distancing policies
					

The CDC and WHO guidelines fail to factor in the amount of time spent indoors, which increases the chance of transmission the longer people are inside.




					www.google.com


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 23, 2021)

N00B said:


> Social Distancing Indoors?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Been saying


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is for @kickingandscreaming
> 
> He likes to point out how wrong this guy is.
> 
> View attachment 10631


No doubt he will continue to be a "trusted advisor to presidents". It's really f'ing annoying what we allow to happen - lol. I'm glad I'm not taking any of this too seriously.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Been saying


You might want to read the actual paper.  It doesn't say what you've "been saying".

The key assumption in the paper is the assumption that the air in the room is well mixed.  In other words, they begin by assuming that viral concentration is equal in all parts of the room.  This makes the 6 foot versus 60 foot risk conclusion pretty much inevitable. 

The section "beyond the well mixed room" is much more interesting.  It gives a detailed explanation of what air flow paths exist, and how masks, distance, and being outside each work.

The simple risk is called respiratory jet.  This is the direct wind created by your breath and speech.  It is also a region of higher virus concentration.  The higher viral load extends about 2m if unmasked.  If you wear a mask, the air is slowed and respiratory jet doesn't go as far.  Instead, it mostly goes up as hot air rises.  (Masks and distance out to 2m help with this part of risk.)

The less direct risk is just increasing concentration by being in an enclosed space.  If I am sick and spend 3 hours in a room, then I have added 3 hours of exhaled virus to the air.  The longer I spend, the higher the viral concentration.  And, the longer you spend in that room, the higher your exposure.  

Cloth masks and distance beyond 2m do not help with this part of risk.   N95 masks or better ventilation do help.  Or, just avoid indoor spaces and go outside.

In all, the authors give a really good description of why masks, distance, and being outside are helpful, and the limitations of each.


----------



## N00B (Apr 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You might want to read the actual paper.  It doesn't say what you've "been saying".


Recently she’s been saying a lot about duration of exposure.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

N00B said:


> Recently she’s been saying a lot about duration of exposure.


It’s been the factor they’ve been missing and the key explanation I think that explain dads “masks work” v real world results.  

I’ve also been saying that the 6 ft thing was pseudoscience particularly when indoors

dads mind just blows a gasket that I always seem to get there before his experts. Just teasing with this last part


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s why I’ve said we should be doing surgical not cloth. The cloth masks are not designed to distinguish between aerosolized particles and air. Bigger gaps. The surgical and n95 masks are designed specifically with this in mind (though the surgical aren’t very tight fitting...if you can smell someone smoking near you then there’s an issue)


If someone is smoking near you you probably aren’t indoors. If you are yes there is an issue. It continues to puzzle me why the simple measures to limit potential exposure are so hard for people to grasp . . . like those driving alone masked? Lol!


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You might want to read the actual paper.  It doesn't say what you've "been saying".
> 
> The key assumption in the paper is the assumption that the air in the room is well mixed.  In other words, they begin by assuming that viral concentration is equal in all parts of the room.  This makes the 6 foot versus 60 foot risk conclusion pretty much inevitable.
> 
> ...





Hüsker Dü said:


> If someone is smoking near you you probably aren’t indoors. If you are yes there is an issue. It continues to puzzle me why the simple measures to limit potential exposure are so hard for people to grasp . . . like those driving alone masked? Lol!


If you prefer: smelling someone sucking on a lozenge, the garlic they just had for breakfast, their perfume, or their gas (particularly since the latter may actually transmit the virus).


----------



## crush (Apr 24, 2021)

I was sitting next to group of four business people yesterday talking about their shots like they just got baptized.  So proud of their accomplishments and even have dates when they got their first shot and when they get second.  One guy was saying he has to go every 12 months for the rest of his life.  My best pal got his 2nd and he was so relieved.  He told me this is just like all the other flu shots and he will just get one every year.  I tried to tell him this one is just a little different but he got super mad at me and then went low blow asking me when I will get mine.  I told him for the 1,000,000 time that I'm against using body parts from aborted babies so old farts can live longer and not have any unexpected life challenges to come knocking on their door.  I can;t wait for the sign that says, "No vaccine, no service."  Cal State just told my boy he needs the shot or else.  That sucks and puts pressure on young minds.  Two years left to graduate and now being told you must take vaccine or no school for you pal.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s been the factor they’ve been missing and the key explanation I think that explain dads “masks work” v real world results.
> 
> I’ve also been saying that the 6 ft thing was pseudoscience particularly when indoors
> 
> dads mind just blows a gasket that I always seem to get there before his experts. Just teasing with this last part


If you read the paper, it only says that 6 feet is nearly equivalent to 60 feet.  It never claims that 2 feet is equivalent to 6 feet.  In fact, part of the paper gives a detailed explanation of why 2 feet is not equivalent to 60 feet- at least if the infected person is not masked.   The paper does not address whether 3 feet is similar to 6 feet for masked people.  A shame, because schools actually need that information. 

The paper also is firmly in the “masks work” camp:

“ We note that the use of face masks will have a marked effect on respiratory jets, with the fluxes of both exhaled pathogen and momentum being reduced substantially at their source. Indeed, Chen et al. (42) note that, when masks are worn, the primary respiratory flow may be described in terms of a rising thermal plume, which is of significantly less risk to neighbors. With a population of individuals wearing face masks, the risk posed by respiratory jets will thus be largely eliminated, while that of the well-mixed ambient will remain. “

In case you are wondering, the authors note that the unmasked respiratory jet risk is substantially larger than the ambient air risk.  The ambient air risk only dominates if we all wear masks.

” There is thus a critical distance, A1/2m/(αtfd), beyond which the pathogen concentration in the jet is reduced to that of the ambient. This distance exceeds 10 m for fd in the aforementioned range and so is typically much greater than the characteristic room dimension.  Thus, in the absence of masks, respiratory jets may pose a substantially greater risk than the well-mixed ambient.”

So, the authors are saying wear your mask, stay moderately distant, and limit your time indoors.  Mask, distance, outdoors.  Just like Grace has been saying.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you read the paper, it only says that 6 feet is nearly equivalent to 60 feet.  It never claims that 2 feet is equivalent to 6 feet.  In fact, part of the paper gives a detailed explanation of why 2 feet is not equivalent to 60 feet- at least if the infected person is not masked.   The paper does not address whether 3 feet is similar to 6 feet for masked people.  A shame, because schools actually need that information.
> 
> The paper also is firmly in the “masks work” camp:
> 
> ...


Way to bend over to distinguish. I’ve said 2 things: the 6 ft thing is completely arbitrary and time reduces the effectiveness of masks. The paper and subsequent news quotes support that. And I’ve agreed all along distance/outdoors better (in the interview they actually pan masks+ outdoors...just outdoors would great)..where we disagree is trade offs we are willing to make and when (and I’m being generous here since you’ve ducked the offer to put your proposal with the benefit of hindsight on the table)


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

Our city today was offering free chick fillet with a dose of Pfizer.  From what the local paper reports there weren’t too many takers though apparently it did attract a flock of teens. Vaccine glut is almost upon us.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Our city today was offering free chick fillet with a dose of Pfizer.  From what the local paper reports there weren’t too many takers though apparently it did attract a flock of teens. Vaccine glut is almost upon us.


I got two doses of Pfizer. How long is this offer good for?

My wife got her second today. No line in the afternoon at the church where she got the vaccine although we were told there was a line in the morning. The timing of shutting down the J&J vaccine was a shame. It felt like to me we had some good traction based on the increasing number of vaccines per day. Not anymore.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Way to bend over to distinguish. I’ve said 2 things: the 6 ft thing is completely arbitrary and time reduces the effectiveness of masks. The paper and subsequent news quotes support that. And I’ve agreed all along distance/outdoors better (in the interview they actually pan masks+ outdoors...just outdoors would great)..where we disagree is trade offs we are willing to make and when (and I’m being generous here since you’ve ducked the offer to put your proposal with the benefit of hindsight on the table)


Which paragraph in the paper do you believe says that "time reduces the effectiveness of masks"?

I can't find that claim anywhere in their published research.  All I see is a numeric analysis that, the longer you spend indoors, the higher your aggregate exposure.  (True with or without the mask)

Are you sure the research papers says what you think it says?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Which paragraph in the paper do you believe says that "time reduces the effectiveness of masks"?
> 
> I can't find that claim anywhere in their published research.  All I see is a numeric analysis that, the longer you spend indoors, the higher your aggregate exposure.  (True with or without the mask)
> 
> Are you sure the research papers says what you think it says?


I agree with or without the mask. It’s the” with “part that interests me. It explains the discrepancy between your theoretical results and what’s happened in the real world. Up to now the argument has only been “without the mask”


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I got two doses of Pfizer. How long is this offer good for?
> 
> My wife got her second today. No line in the afternoon at the church where she got the vaccine although we were told there was a line in the morning. The timing of shutting down the J&J vaccine was a shame. It felt like to me we had some good traction based on the increasing number of vaccines per day. Not anymore.


I got mine vc both on Friday afternoons. The first time parking lot full and 3 waiting rooms to be released. This time only 1/2 of one waiting room, parking lot 1/3 full, maybe 1/4 of the people there were teens and 20 something.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I agree with or without the mask. It’s the” with “part that interests me. It explains the discrepancy between your theoretical results and what’s happened in the real world. Up to now the argument has only been “without the mask”


Still waiting for you to tell us which paragraph says "time reduces the effectiveness of masks."

Is it in the MIT research paper?  You said it was.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Still waiting for you to tell us which paragraph says "time reduces the effectiveness of masks."
> 
> Is it in the MIT research paper?  You said it was.


still waiting for You to actually understand the point. Up to now the arguments been masks work.  This is the first time the analysis factors in time, which I agree says WITH or without masks the longer you spend indoors the higher your exposure risk. I know you aren’t that thick but you do have a remarkable ability to miss the forest through the trees.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I got two doses of Pfizer. How long is this offer good for?
> 
> My wife got her second today. No line in the afternoon at the church where she got the vaccine although we were told there was a line in the morning. The timing of shutting down the J&J vaccine was a shame. It felt like to me we had some good traction based on the increasing number of vaccines per day. Not anymore.


daily numbers are out. Almost 1/3 of a drop Friday from peak daily vaccination, a week and a half ago.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> daily numbers are out. Almost 1/3 of a drop Friday from peak daily vaccination, a week and a half ago.


That's because there are morons out there that believe there are dead babies in the vaccine.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

Meanwhile the news out of India is just bad. Other than the suspected case of Iran at the beginning of the pandemic, its the first country where the hospital system is actually in full blown collapse, oxygen shortages and emergency burial measures at funerals. Is there’s reason we can’t just donate to them our az stockpile if we aren’t going to use it?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> still waiting for You to actually understand the point. Up to now the arguments been masks work.  This is the first time the analysis factors in time, which I agree says WITH or without masks the longer you spend indoors the higher your exposure risk. I know you aren’t that thick but you do have a remarkable ability to miss the forest through the trees.


You said the paper supports your claim that time makes masks less effective. 

I just want to know which paragraph supports your claim.

It sure looks like you are saying something Grace believes, and pretending it has support from an article which says nothing of the sort.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Meanwhile the news out of India is just bad. Other than the suspected case of Iran at the beginning of the pandemic, its the first country where the hospital system is actually in full blown collapse, oxygen shortages and emergency burial measures at funerals. Is there’s reason we can’t just donate to them our az stockpile if we aren’t going to use it?


India is big.  If you want to have an impact on a country with a billion people, you'd have to send them _all_ of our vaccine for the next half year or so.  Then go back to "lockdowns" to get our own house in order.

Biden, accurately, believes the America First crowd would not look kindly on an attempt to save a million Indian lives at a cost of 6 more months of covid restrictions.

Quite a few of us couldn't endure the restrictions to help our countrymen.  You think they'd be willing to go back to 6 months more restrictions to help out Mumbai?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

[/QUOTE]
I think some hard core religious people might feel that way but





dad4 said:


> You said the paper supports your claim that time makes masks less effective.
> 
> I just want to know which paragraph supports your claim.
> 
> It sure looks like you are saying something Grace believes, and pretending it has support from an article which says nothing of the sort.


I'm just using your own words back at you.  I'm not the one that has been saying masks are the miracle product that work indoors.  As you yourself has said, with or without masks the longer indoors the greater the chance of exposure.  My point is it explains the discrepancy between your theories and real world results

This has a lot of implications.  Because the warning to people should have been "masks help, but if you spend too long indoors you still could catch it....being outdoors helps more".  I suspect when all is said and done we will find out that people knew that, but just didn't want to say the quiet part out loud.  There's a reason....it means all those flying is fine propaganda was bunk, it meant that we were telling essential workers such as in groceries and meat packing plants to go to work knowing the length of time of their shifts increased their risk (mask or no mask), and it means throwing all those migrants into detention overcrowded detention facilities probably also not a great idea.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> India is big.  If you want to have an impact on a country with a billion people, you'd have to send them _all_ of our vaccine for the next half year or so.  Then go back to "lockdowns" to get our own house in order.
> 
> Biden, accurately, believes the America First crowd would not look kindly on an attempt to save a million Indian lives at a cost of 6 more months of covid restrictions.
> 
> Quite a few of us couldn't endure the restrictions to help our countrymen.  You think they'd be willing to go back to 6 months more restrictions to help out Mumbai?


You are assuming we are actually going to use the AZ vaccine.  We are nearing a glut without it.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are assuming we are actually going to use the AZ vaccine.  We are nearing a glut without it.


j
I just know that 2M AZ vaccine doses won't go very far in a country with 1.4B people.  If you want to help India, send 200M doses.  Or more.

We could do it.  We'd have to restore some restrictions and stretch out or vaccine distribution schedule while we send the rest to India.  

I want to believe it would be popular.  But I expect it would not.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> j
> I just know that 2M AZ vaccine doses won't go very far in a country with 1.4B people.  If you want to help India, send 200M doses.  Or more.
> 
> We could do it.  We'd have to restore some restrictions and stretch out or vaccine distribution schedule while we send the rest to India.
> ...


I dunno.  If my parents had a shot of being saved by the drop in the bucket, I'd welcome the help  I agree it won't go far.   But for those people it helps it would matter.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 24, 2021)

I think some hard core religious people might feel that way but

I'm just using your own words back at you.  I'm not the one that has been saying masks are the miracle product that work indoors.  As you yourself has said, with or without masks the longer indoors the greater the chance of exposure.  My point is it explains the discrepancy between your theories and real world results

This has a lot of implications.  *Because the warning to people should have been "masks help, but if you spend too long indoors you still could catch it....being outdoors helps more". * I suspect when all is said and done we will find out that people knew that, but just didn't want to say the quiet part out loud.  There's a reason....it means all those flying is fine propaganda was bunk, it meant that we were telling essential workers such as in groceries and meat packing plants to go to work knowing the length of time of their shifts increased their risk (mask or no mask), and it means throwing all those migrants into detention overcrowded detention facilities probably also not a great idea.
[/QUOTE]
I'm fine with that wording.  It's pretty good advice.

Cloth masks and social distance keep you from breathing coronavirus directly into someone else's face.  That's not a miracle cure, but it is step in the right direction.  Therefore, we should all wear our masks.

We should also give each other some space, to reduce direct exposure , and stay outdoors, to reduce the ambient air risk.

So, as before, mask, distance, outside.  This is not rocket science.

Side note: Of course the air travel advocates were full of crap.  I thought it was clear that it was a bad idea to spend 2-6 hours in an aluminum tube with 150 other people.


----------



## espola (Apr 24, 2021)

I think some hard core religious people might feel that way but

I'm just using your own words back at you.  I'm not the one that has been saying masks are the miracle product that work indoors.  As you yourself has said, with or without masks the longer indoors the greater the chance of exposure.  My point is it explains the discrepancy between your theories and real world results

This has a lot of implications.  Because the warning to people should have been "masks help, but if you spend too long indoors you still could catch it....being outdoors helps more".  I suspect when all is said and done we will find out that people knew that, but just didn't want to say the quiet part out loud.  There's a reason....it means all those flying is fine propaganda was bunk, it meant that we were telling essential workers such as in groceries and meat packing plants to go to work knowing the length of time of their shifts increased their risk (mask or no mask), and it means throwing all those migrants into detention overcrowded detention facilities probably also not a great idea.
[/QUOTE]

Who said masks are a miracle product?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 24, 2021)

> Who said masks are a miracle product?


That’s funny. I seem to remember masks are better than vaccines, if everyone wore a mask this would be over in 8 weeks and masks have a 70% reduction.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s funny. I seem to remember masks are better than vaccines, if everyone wore a mask this would be over in 8 weeks and masks have a 70% reduction.


Grace is just changing the topic because she got called out for her bogus claim about the MIT study.  

When you read the details, they are still saying masks+distance+outside.  

The only change is they want to raise the profile of being outside.  

Ok by me.  New rule is masks + distance + STAY THE HECK OUT OF INDOOR SPACES. 

Better?  I thought the old version was more polite.  (masks + distance + outside)


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Grace is just changing the topic because she got called out for her bogus claim about the MIT study.
> 
> When you read the details, they are still saying masks+distance+outside.
> 
> ...


Your new rule is backward in terms of relative importance. Why am I not surprised? My new rule is, Vaccine, ... oh, wait, I'm done.


----------



## espola (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s funny. I seem to remember masks are better than vaccines, if everyone wore a mask this would be over in 8 weeks and masks have a 70% reduction.


Now do "miracle".


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Grace is just changing the topic because she got called out for her bogus claim about the MIT study.
> 
> When you read the details, they are still saying masks+distance+outside.
> 
> ...


Nah it’s much more embarrassing for your beloved experts than that. It’s the old rule should have been is inside was much more dangerous than we told you. Inside masks won’t protect you if you spend too much time indoors (which is what I’ve been saying forever). But we didnt tell you that because we had to keep the airlines afloat, bring immigrants in and couldnt freak out the essential workers who had to sacrifice themselves so people like dad4 working at home can stay safe. It’s why they said nonsense like masks are better than vaccines. 

You always overread things and assume the worst in people (then ironically expect them to be angels when it comes to your policies...just like the old times preachers). Just the very same way you assumed that because I thought I didn’t think masks helped that much I just threw away my own mask or because I thought the trade off for indoor dining was too severe I went partying indoors and indoor dining

I agree with kicking though.  It’s all moot now because of the vaccine which is the true miracle.  Which is also btw why it’s now ok to talk about this stuff given we won’t freak out the sacrificial lambs


----------



## dad4 (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nah it’s much more embarrassing for your beloved experts than that. It’s the old rule should have been is inside was much more dangerous than we told you. Inside masks won’t protect you if you spend too much time indoors (which is what I’ve been saying forever). But we didnt tell you that because we had to keep the airlines afloat, bring immigrants in and couldnt freak out the essential workers who had to sacrifice themselves so people like dad4 working at home can stay safe. It’s why they said nonsense like masks are better than vaccines.
> 
> You always overread things and assume the worst in people (then ironically expect them to be angels when it comes to your policies...just like the old times preachers). Just the very same way you assumed that because I thought I didn’t think masks helped that much I just threw away my own mask or because I thought the trade off for indoor dining was too severe I went partying indoors and indoor dining
> 
> I agree with kicking though.  It’s all moot now because of the vaccine which is the true miracle.  Which is also btw why it’s now ok to talk about this stuff given we won’t freak out the sacrificial lambs


Overread?  You just underread.  There is more in those studies than you manage to pull out of them.

You saw a perfectly good study explaining how airflow modeling demonstrates that being indoors with other people is a non-mitigable risk, and never once made the connection that church and indoor dining are higher risk than you had previously believed.  

Instead, you came out with an inaccurate one liner saying “told ya so.”.   No you didn’t.  And I didn’t either.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Your new rule is backward in terms of relative importance. Why am I not surprised? My new rule is, Vaccine, ... oh, wait, I'm done.


Less done than you’d think.  (Unless your answer is limited to your own family.  Then you might ge done.)

It looks like we will have a regional pattern in vaccinations.  80% on the coasts and 50% in the deep south.  Some states/counties end up protected, while others do not.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Overread?  You just underread.  There is more in those studies than you manage to pull out of them.
> 
> You saw a perfectly good study explaining how airflow modeling demonstrates that being indoors with other people is a non-mitigable risk, and never once made the connection that church and indoor dining are higher risk than you had previously believed.
> 
> Instead, you came out with an inaccurate one liner saying “told ya so.”.   No you didn’t.  And I didn’t either.


Again you are misascribing motives.   I’ve always believed indoor dining and church was higher risk.  What I said was: there’s an inequity in that we are forcing some people and not others to take risk, there are trade offs which you fail to calculate the cost of (while forcing others to provide the things needed to keep you safe and sound), and people should be allowed to assess those cost themselves. My point on the study was the limited point that risks increased WITH or without masks the longer you are indoors.  I’ve been saying forever people were neglecting the time factor.  And I believe that explains the difference between your theoretical 40% and why masks in the real world haven’t worked to contain the outbreak. Extrapolating from there the best use of masks would have been to protect against short term exposure (like in grocery stores or doctor waiting rooms) but we didn’t say that because it would have brought down the airline industry, caused problems in prisons, and freaked out the essential workers.  Instead we told them garbage like masks are better than vaccines
You’re just mad because someone is finally saying the quiet part out loud and shows why your preferred solution doesn’t work in the real world. When someone tears down your fantasy you really pull every overreach and rhetorical tool in the book to try and protect it.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again you are misascribing motives.   I’ve always believed indoor dining and church was higher risk.  What I said was: there’s an inequity in that we are forcing some people and not others to take risk, there are trade offs which you fail to calculate the cost of (while forcing others to provide the things needed to keep you safe and sound), and people should be allowed to assess those cost themselves. My point on the study was the limited point that risks increased WITH or without masks the longer you are indoors.  I’ve been saying forever people were neglecting the time factor.  And I believe that explains the difference between your theoretical 40% and why masks in the real world haven’t worked to contain the outbreak. Extrapolating from there the best use of masks would have been to protect against short term exposure (like in grocery stores or doctor waiting rooms) but we didn’t say that because it would have brought down the airline industry, caused problems in prisons, and freaked out the essential workers.  Instead we told them garbage like masks are better than vaccines
> You’re just mad because someone is finally saying the quiet part out loud and shows why your preferred solution doesn’t work in the real world. When someone tears down your fantasy you really pull every overreach and rhetorical tool in the book to try and protect it.


Ps. It’s also why outdoor mask mandates should never have been put in place, were ridiculous and only served to make a portion of the population hostile to them. Better a more limited use and treating people like grownups by being honest about what they can and can’t do.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Less done than you’d think.  (Unless your answer is limited to your own family.  Then you might ge done.)
> 
> It looks like we will have a regional pattern in vaccinations.  80% on the coasts and 50% in the deep south.  Some states/counties end up protected, while others do not.


The only thing that matters is the percentage of 55+ that got the shot which will be higher in both red and blue state. The death rate will be on the floor. Time to move on...cases are meaningless


----------



## dad4 (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The only thing that matters is the percentage of 55+ that got the shot which will be higher in both red and blue state. The death rate will be on the floor. Time to move on...cases are meaningless


Vax rates for 70+ are topping out at around 80%.

I don’t think you get a death rate on the floor just yet.  40% vax rate for younger people would keep it circulating.  20% unvaccinated would leave 1/5 of seniors exposed.  That’s still enough deaths to care about.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Vax rates for 70+ are topping out at around 80%.
> 
> I don’t think you get a death rate on the floor just yet.  40% vax rate for younger people would keep it circulating.  20% unvaccinated would leave 1/5 of seniors exposed.  That’s still enough deaths to care about.


Assuming arguendo those figures are true what does that do to the ifr and how does it compare to a bad flu season?  The goal is not zero deaths. It’s never going to be zero deaths. And for the vaccinated that made the choice they are more likely to be killed in the car drive on the way to indoor dining than from catching covid and dying of covid. At a certain point the rest of us can’t sit around waiting if the old who refuse vaccination chose to behave that way. It’s never going to be zero.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again you are misascribing motives.   I’ve always believed indoor dining and church was higher risk.  What I said was: there’s an inequity in that we are forcing some people and not others to take risk, there are trade offs which you fail to calculate the cost of (while forcing others to provide the things needed to keep you safe and sound), and people should be allowed to assess those cost themselves. My point on the study was the limited point that risks increased WITH or without masks the longer you are indoors.  I’ve been saying forever people were neglecting the time factor.  And I believe that explains the difference between your theoretical 40% and why masks in the real world haven’t worked to contain the outbreak. Extrapolating from there the best use of masks would have been to protect against short term exposure (like in grocery stores or doctor waiting rooms) but we didn’t say that because it would have brought down the airline industry, caused problems in prisons, and freaked out the essential workers.  Instead we told them garbage like masks are better than vaccines
> You’re just mad because someone is finally saying the quiet part out loud and shows why your preferred solution doesn’t work in the real world. When someone tears down your fantasy you really pull every overreach and rhetorical tool in the book to try and protect it.


40% would not be expected to contain the outbreak.

To handle a variant with R=5, you’d need three or four 40% reductions, all at the same time.  And you’d need to actually enforce all of them.

You can have a great slate of mitigations with a 90% reduction in transmission.  If 20% of the population refuses to do it, case numbers will still increase. 

They didn’t do my preferred solution.  My preferred solution had fines.  It doesn’t work without the fines.   Remember, my authoritarian streak where I actually wanted the government to enforce their public health laws?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Assuming arguendo those figures are true what does that do to the ifr and how does it compare to a bad flu season?  The goal is not zero deaths. It’s never going to be zero deaths. And for the vaccinated that made the choice they are more likely to be killed in the car drive on the way to indoor dining than from catching covid and dying of covid. At a certain point the rest of us can’t sit around waiting if the old who refuse vaccination chose to behave that way. It’s never going to be zero.


It doesn’t change ifr for any age group.  Total ifr drifts down a little because average age drifts down when a higher percentage of older people get vaccinated.

I have not run the numbers to figure out the steady state death rate for covid with a 50% overall vax rate and 80% for seniors.  Permanent bad flu season might, or might not, accurately describe it.

The remaining fight isn’t over whether we sit around.  It’s over things like vaccine passports.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Less done than you’d think.  (Unless your answer is limited to your own family.  Then you might ge done.)
> 
> It looks like we will have a regional pattern in vaccinations.  80% on the coasts and 50% in the deep south.  Some states/counties end up protected, while others do not.


No, "it" is not done, even if I am. I will still be wearing a mask where required and avoiding those places that require one when possible.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It doesn’t change ifr for any age group.  Total ifr drifts down a little because average age drifts down when a higher percentage of older people get vaccinated.
> 
> I have not run the numbers to figure out the steady state death rate for covid with a 50% overall vax rate and 80% for seniors.  Permanent bad flu season might, or might not, accurately describe it.
> 
> The remaining fight isn’t over whether we sit around.  It’s over things like vaccine passports.


Kids getting forced vaccinated too.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It doesn’t change ifr for any age group.  Total ifr drifts down a little because average age drifts down when a higher percentage of older people get vaccinated.
> 
> I have not run the numbers to figure out the steady state death rate for covid with a 50% overall vax rate and 80% for seniors.  Permanent bad flu season might, or might not, accurately describe it.
> 
> The remaining fight isn’t over whether we sit around.  It’s over things like vaccine passports.


Why fight it? How many times do we need to go back through history and see that forcing people to do something "for their own good" is a slippery slope and the resulting power structure that is created to enforce it is very often worse than the problem it attempted to solve.  Vaccine passports? Aren't the vaccines still listed as an emergency use authorization? We aren't even forcing the military to take the vaccine. The argument about doing it for the common good is quickly fading away as all those who desire vaccines able to get them. The risk to those that are vaccinated is less than that in a car trip (see below). It's time to let individual choice reign - well, by the end of May, anyway when it is obvious everyone who wants a vaccine can get one. We need to quit dividing ourselves based on irrational fear.

Part I



Good morning. Why do so many vaccinated people remain irrationally fearful? Listen to the professor’s story.


*A fable for our times*


Guido Calabresi, a federal judge and Yale law professor, invented a little fable that he has been telling law students for more than three decades.


He tells the students to imagine a god coming forth to offer society a wondrous invention that would improve everyday life in almost every way. It would allow people to spend more time with friends and family, see new places and do jobs they otherwise could not do. But it would also come with a high cost. In exchange for bestowing this invention on society, the god would choose 1,000 young men and women and strike them dead.


Calabresi then asks: Would you take the deal? Almost invariably, the students say no. The professor then delivers the fable’s lesson: “What’s the difference between this and the automobile?”


In truth, automobiles kill many more than 1,000 young Americans each year; the total U.S. death toll hovers at about 40,000 annually. We accept this toll, almost unthinkingly, because vehicle crashes have always been part of our lives. We can’t fathom a world without them.


It’s a classic example of human irrationality about risk. We often underestimate large, chronic dangers, like car crashes or chemical pollution, and fixate on tiny but salient risks, like plane crashes or shark attacks.


One way for a risk to become salient is for it to be new. That’s a core idea behind Calabresi’s fable. He asks students to consider whether they would accept the cost of vehicle travel if it did not already exist. That they say no underscores the very different ways we treat new risks and enduring ones.


I have been thinking about the fable recently because of Covid-19. Covid certainly presents a salient risk: It’s a global pandemic that has upended daily life for more than a year. It has changed how we live, where we work, even what we wear on our faces. Covid feels ubiquitous.


Fortunately, it is also curable. The vaccines have nearly eliminated death, hospitalization and other serious Covid illness among people who have received shots. The vaccines have also radically reduced the chances that people contract even a mild version of Covid or can pass it on to others.

Yet many vaccinated people continue to obsess over the risks from Covid — because they are so new and salient.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 25, 2021)

Part II



*‘Psychologically hard’*


To take just one example, major media outlets trumpeted new government data last week showing that 5,800 fully vaccinated Americans had contracted Covid. That may sound like a big number, but it indicates that a vaccinated person’s chances of getting Covid are about one in 11,000. The chances of a getting a version any worse than a common cold are even more remote.


But they are not zero. And they will not be zero anytime in the foreseeable future. Victory over Covid will not involve its elimination. Victory will instead mean turning it into the sort of danger that plane crashes or shark attacks present — too small to be worth reordering our lives.


That is what the vaccines do. If you’re vaccinated, Covid presents a minuscule risk to you, and you present a minuscule Covid risk to anyone else. A car trip is a bigger threat, to you and others. About 100 Americans are likely to die in car crashes today. The new federal data suggests that either zero or one vaccinated person will die today from Covid.


It’s true that experts believe vaccinated people should still sometimes wear a mask, partly because it’s a modest inconvenience that further reduces a tiny risk — and mostly because it contributes to a culture of mask wearing. It is the decent thing to do when most people still aren’t vaccinated. If you’re vaccinated, a mask is more of a symbol of solidarity than anything else.


Coming to grips with the comforting realities of post-vaccination life is going to take some time for most of us. It’s only natural that so many vaccinated people continue to harbor irrational fears. Yet slowly recognizing that irrationality will be a vital part of overcoming Covid.


“We’re not going to get to a place of zero risk,” Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, told me during a virtual Times event last week. “I don’t think that’s the right metric for feeling like things are normal.”


After Nuzzo made that point, Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University told us about his own struggle to return to normal. He has been fully vaccinated for almost two months, he said, and only recently decided to meet a vaccinated friend for a drink, unmasked. “It was hard — psychologically hard — for me,” Jha said.


“There are going to be some challenges to re-acclimating and re-entering,” he added. “But we’ve got to do it.”


And how did it feel in the end, I asked, to get together with his friend?


“It was awesome,” Jha said.


----------



## espola (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> And for the vaccinated that made the choice they are more likely to be killed in the car drive on the way to indoor dining than from catching covid and dying of covid.


Based on what?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Based on what?


See kickings post above


----------



## espola (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> See kickings post above


Insufficient analysis.

D-.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> See kickings post above


You're supposed to actually have some numbers behind it, not just wave your hands and say it's less than car accidents.

In this case, US covid deaths are a little under 1000 per day.  Car crash fatalities are a little under 100 per day.  

So, no.  You are not more likely to die in the car crash.  Especially not if you are older and unvaccinated.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

Bad math from the math teacher. You’d think that you’d teach your kids to read the math problem first. I didn’t say is covid deaths. I said dying of covid after vaccinated.  In Oklahoma there have been 102 breakthrough cases out of over 1 million vaccinated.  Out of those 2 have died in Oklahoma. .0005% of those who get it will be hospitalized.  Only 2 fully vaccinated people in Oklahoma have died being counted towards covid, 74 people in the us.  That’s .0001% of fully vaccinated people

meanwhile your chances of dying in a car crash are 1 in 103 spread out over the course of a lifetime.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

Or if you prefer.....








						Report: Risk Of Getting COVID After Vaccine Low As Shark Attack, Plane Crash
					

Government data released last week show that 5,800 fully vaccinated Americans still got COVID, anyway. Which means what?“That may sound like a big number, but it indicates that a vaccinated person’s chances of getting Covid are about one i…




					dailyvoice.com


----------



## dad4 (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Bad math from the math teacher. You’d think that you’d teach your kids to read the math problem first. I didn’t say is covid deaths. I said dying of covid after vaccinated.  In Oklahoma there have been 102 breakthrough cases out of over 1 million vaccinated.  Out of those 2 have died in Oklahoma. .0005% of those who get it will be hospitalized.  Only 2 fully vaccinated people in Oklahoma have died being counted towards covid, 74 people in the us.  That’s .0001% of fully vaccinated people
> 
> meanwhile your chances of dying in a car crash are 1 in 103 spread out over the course of a lifetime.


That one slipped right by me.   I completely misread your wording and thought you said “unvaccinated”.

Why are you even talking about the risk to the vaccinated?   It isn’t the right question.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That one slipped right by me.   I completely misread your wording and thought you said “unvaccinated”.
> 
> Why are you even talking about the risk to the vaccinated?   It isn’t the right question.


When everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated, it is the right question.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> When everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated, it is the right question.


It’s beginning to look like everyone who wants it will get the chance by the end of next week. It means 1 month and some change


----------



## dad4 (Apr 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> When everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated, it is the right question.


Much as I am annoyed by team virus, I don’t actually want to see them dead.

It also depends on whether people are unvaccinated due to a conscious choice, or some other problem.  Some people make a choice to not get vaccinated.  Others may just be having trouble navigating the county bureaucracy.  I can use a computer to make an appointment, drive there in my car, read and follow direction signs, and get my shot.  If I ever get confused, the first person I ask for help will speak my native tongue.  But just because the process works for me doesn’t mean it works for everyone.

To the extent that these other problems account for the remaining unvaccinated people, it seems unreasonable to say that everyone has had n opportunity to be vaccinated.  I certainly would not make that claim until a few weeks after the clinics start accepting walk ins without appointments.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I certainly would not make that claim until a few weeks after the clinics start accepting walk ins without appointments.


That’s already happening in SoCal (at least la and vc). There are appointment only govt centers and you still just can’t walk into cvs but yeah all this week and weekend there have been clinics with free to walk on. In many red states due to the lower demand and greater reliance on the private sector that’s already the case.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Much as I am annoyed by team virus, I don’t actually want to see them dead.
> 
> It also depends on whether people are unvaccinated due to a conscious choice, or some other problem.  Some people make a choice to not get vaccinated.  Others may just be having trouble navigating the county bureaucracy.  I can use a computer to make an appointment, drive there in my car, read and follow direction signs, and get my shot.  If I ever get confused, the first person I ask for help will speak my native tongue.  But just because the process works for me doesn’t mean it works for everyone.
> 
> To the extent that these other problems account for the remaining unvaccinated people, it seems unreasonable to say that everyone has had n opportunity to be vaccinated.  I certainly would not make that claim until a few weeks after the clinics start accepting walk ins without appointments.


Agreed. I am certainly not ready to make that claim yet. I believe I stated previously maybe by the end of May, but I am open to changing that if there are people that legitimately want the vaccine and don't have access. BTW, I don't want them dead either, but I feel it's more important to respect individual choice than to attempt to force people to get the vaccine against their will.


----------



## crush (Apr 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Agreed. I am certainly not ready to make that claim yet. I believe I stated previously maybe by the end of May, but I am open to changing that if there are people that legitimately want the vaccine and don't have access. BTW, I don't want them dead either, *but I feel it's more important to respect individual choice than to attempt to force people to get the vaccine against their will*.


Thanks bro.  I just had bday lunch with the Out-Laws.  Everyone and I mean everyone got their shots.  My wife and I were the only ones who didn't convert.  No one dared ask us why we are a big fat no and always will be.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 25, 2021)

Believe it or not, I am just now able to get my first vaccine Tuesday; And it's not through my HCP- it's at a pharmacy inside a grocery store!

I was in this last group of eligibility and I think once they opened to 16+ it became hard again to find an appt, I do know lots of 20 somethings that are ready to freely travel and party and jumped to get it.

Point being, I could see how it may be a bit harder (like Dad was saying,) for a non-native speaker. I was using websites, text lines, FB groups, etc, which is how I found out about the pharmacy site.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 25, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Believe it or not, I am just now able to get my first vaccine Tuesday; And it's not through my HCP- it's at a pharmacy inside a grocery store!
> 
> I was in this last group of eligibility and I think once they opened to 16+ it became hard again to find an appt, I do know lots of 20 somethings that are ready to freely travel and party and jumped to get it.
> 
> Point being, I could see how it may be a bit harder (like Dad was saying,) for a non-native speaker. I was using websites, text lines, FB groups, etc, which is how I found out about the pharmacy site.


Yes, I used vaccinespotter. I was in a group that was prioritized a few weeks before they opened to everyone 16 and up, and 5 weeks ago it was not easy to find availability. The other thing to consider is that after everyone has a legitimate opportunity to get their first shot, we need to add about 4 weeks to that so they get their second shot. I'd be surprised if there was much of a population that still wanted the shot come mid-May and couldn't get it reasonably easily. We'll see.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 25, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Agreed. I am certainly not ready to make that claim yet. I believe I stated previously maybe by the end of May, but I am open to changing that if there are people that legitimately want the vaccine and don't have access. BTW, I don't want them dead either, but I feel it's more important to respect individual choice than to attempt to force people to get the vaccine against their will.


SCC did a survey and found that 90% of adults plan to get the shot.

If that is accurate, cases will be in free fall before they run out of willing vaccine recipients.  Vaccine + prior exposure will be about 80%.  84% once they approve Pfizer for 12 year olds.

It's a harder ethical question for the red states.  Some of them will run out of willing vaccine takers before they reach herd immunity.  For them, allowing vaccine refusal also means adding risk to immuno-compromised people.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

Another hotel case, this time in Perth in a quarantine hotel...couple caught it from travelers from India in the room across the hall. This time though it’s set off a scramble with Perth going into lockdown and fear of leakage into eastern australia from plane flights. Worries now are they may need to go into their 4th national lockdown if things continue to leak which includes in their case restrictions between regions. Adding to their struggle is they are relying heavily on the az vaccine and have had now 6 blood clot cases.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> SCC did a survey and found that 90% of adults plan to get the shot.
> 
> If that is accurate, cases will be in free fall before they run out of willing vaccine recipients.  Vaccine + prior exposure will be about 80%.  84% once they approve Pfizer for 12 year olds.
> 
> It's a harder ethical question for the red states.  Some of them will run out of willing vaccine takers before they reach herd immunity.  For them, allowing vaccine refusal also means adding risk to immuno-compromised people.


I'm definitely not saying anything like "well- their own fault." But- if we have a known weapon against it, and they refuse it... ?

One issue I do take issue with in terms of allowing refusal, is sure- not much risk for healthy, young/youngish individuals. However- we have a slew of childhood cancer patients who absolutely cannot get sick with this. When put that way, it seems extremely selfish not to take it if you're a healthy person.

What's even more ironic is those in the anti-camp are likely the same crowd that thought we were idiotic for sacrificing the lives of children, (closing schools, etc,) for the elderly. But- those same people don't jump to protect the children who cannot protect themselves, either.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> SCC did a survey and found that 90% of adults plan to get the shot.
> 
> If that is accurate, cases will be in free fall before they run out of willing vaccine recipients.  Vaccine + prior exposure will be about 80%.  84% once they approve Pfizer for 12 year olds.
> 
> It's a harder ethical question for the red states.  Some of them will run out of willing vaccine takers before they reach herd immunity.  For them, allowing vaccine refusal also means adding risk to immuno-compromised people.


I swear I did not see your last sentence when I replied. LOL! We are saying the same thing, I think?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

More than 1/2 of Kansas counties have refused their allotment of vaccine for this week due to lack of demand.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> More than 1/2 of Kansas counties have refused their allotment of vaccine for this week due to lack of demand.


I really would like to know if people were this hesitant for things like Polio, etc. From what I've been told- no. They would line up and clammor to get vaccinated. It's just crazy to me how today's world of fake news, (which btw, I read a stat somewhere that said fake news is shared like 5x more than real news,) has made people forget that we have science- science is not new, and FB and Twitter are not reliable news sources.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 25, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I really would like to know if people were this hesitant for things like Polio, etc. From what I've been told- no. They would line up and clammor to get vaccinated. It's just crazy to me how today's world of fake news, (which btw, I read a stat somewhere that said fake news is shared like 5x more than real news,) has made people forget that we have science- science is not new, and FB and Twitter are not reliable news sources.


The downturn really coincided with the Johnson and Johnson halt. It’s not the sole cause because the red states are seeing a bigger downturn than the blue states. But it was a stunning own goal that didn’t help things now that we are hitting vaccine reluctance. It doesn’t help either that the blood clots hit otherwise healthy younger women. From a risk analysis point of view they have less of a danger with covid and there’s a bit of a free rider problem (if everyone   else gets vaccinated I’ll be fine) so they might figure why risk myself taking an experimental drug. Polio on the other hand struck down otherwise healthy people so everyone was at risk even if the early shots carried a risk themselves.  A person under 40 has a less than .1% chance of dying from covid. A person under 40 though could have been crippled by polio ruining their life (which for some is worse than death)


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The downturn really coincided with the Johnson and Johnson halt. It’s not the sole cause because the red states are seeing a bigger downturn than the blue states. But it was a stunning own goal that didn’t help things now that we are hitting vaccine reluctance. It doesn’t help either that the blood clots hit otherwise healthy younger women. From a risk analysis point of view they have less of a danger with covid and there’s a bit of a free rider problem (if everyone   else gets vaccinated I’ll be fine) so they might figure why risk myself taking an experimental drug. Polio on the other hand struck down otherwise healthy people so everyone was at risk even if the early shots carried a risk themselves.  A person under 40 has a less than .1% chance of dying from covid. A person under 40 though could have been crippled by polio ruining their life (which for some is worse than death)


True- I agree that although you have a better chance of being struck by lightning than getting a clot from the J&J vax, those that were already on the fence pretty much said no thanks.
Re: the Polio vax, very true- the disease itself was much worse, BUT- I can't imagine the shots were as safe as they are now so I still wonder why the hesitance. There is the tired argument that this shot was developed way too fast, (we know this isn't true,) and that it was fast tracked too much. Well- we threw literally all the money we had at it which we normally can't/don't do. I found this great chart put together by a public health scientist that I should find again- it breaks down in a very unbiased way how the process was done. It wasn't in a shaming tone or meant to put anyone on blast.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 26, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> It wasn't in a shaming tone or meant to put anyone on blast.


So it’s safe for the overly sensitive?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The item on that list that really drove it is the “ingrained idea of dissent and individualism.”
> 
> On that, we agree.
> 
> ...


Yawn.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are major economic powers, densely populated, democracies, and deeply intwined the world economy.
> 
> All three managed to drive R below 1 and keep it there.  I suspect all three have suffered less economic damage than we have.
> 
> Call it a lockdown if you like.  But their policies worked and ours did not.


Simpleton.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Asian cultures, even Aussies and Kiwis, are more able to bite the bullet and just do the damn restrictions knowing it will make things get worked out faster. Here, the land of death cults and extreme selfishness, not so much.


Asian cultures aren't as fat and unhealthy as 38% of Americans are.


----------



## crush (Apr 26, 2021)

dad4 said:
"South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are major economic powers, densely populated, democracies, and deeply intwined the world economy.

All three managed to drive R below 1 and keep it there. I suspect all three have suffered less economic damage than we have.

*"Call it a lockdown if you like. But their policies worked and ours did not."*

Hey daddy 4, me and some of the fellas on here have rounded up a one way ticket for you to go to either of the Koreas, Japan or Taiwan bro.  All paid for dude plus we will pay for all your moving expenses.  My brother in law teaches English in Japan and he said he can get you a math job 

*One way ticket just for Dad 4.  *


----------



## dad4 (Apr 26, 2021)

crush said:


> dad4 said:
> "South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are major economic powers, densely populated, democracies, and deeply intwined the world economy.
> 
> All three managed to drive R below 1 and keep it there. I suspect all three have suffered less economic damage than we have.
> ...


Gee, thanks.

You guys chipping in for a full K-pop playlist for my phone, to help me fit in when I get there?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> One issue I do take issue with in terms of allowing refusal, is sure- not much risk for healthy, young/youngish individuals. However- we have a slew of childhood cancer patients who absolutely cannot get sick with this. When put that way, it seems extremely selfish not to take it if you're a healthy person.
> 
> What's even more ironic is those in the anti-camp are likely the same crowd that thought we were idiotic for sacrificing the lives of children, (closing schools, etc,) for the elderly. But- those same people don't jump to protect the children who cannot protect themselves, either.


Remember since the beginning of this till now *only 266* people under the age of 17 have died. 

It just isn't a group that has any risk at all. So even with the "slew" of childhood cancer patients, that has not translated into large number of deaths over the past year. 

So it isn't as you say of "not much risk" for young people...it is that they really have no risk at all. 

To put things further into perspective. 

We are at 580k deaths since the beginning of this. 

TOTAL deaths of people under the age of 39 is just 8,305. Think about that number

And if we look at total deaths of people 49 and under we are at just 24,510

So it is not a surprise that a decent percentage of people under 49 are in no hurry to get vaccinated. 

- The are not at risk
- The authorities are saying even after getting vaccinated they want you to wear a mask and distance (so what is the point)
- And again they really are not at risk. 

Now notice the age groups at risk. Almost all the deaths are the 65-70+ aged individuals. They know they are at risk and they have logically gotten vaccinated at very high rates.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Polio on the other hand struck down otherwise healthy people so everyone was at risk even if the early shots carried a risk themselves. A person under 40 has a less than .1% chance of dying from covid. A person under 40 though could have been crippled by polio ruining their life (which for some is worse than death)


That is exactly why there is a difference in vaccination between the 2. 

With one (covid) if you are under 50 you have little to no risk. With polio that wasn't the case. 

It is also why as I just said, people at risk for covid ARE getting vaccinated at rather high rates. 

In AZ 80% of people over 65 have been vaccinated. 

This effectively takes care of covid since that is the age group where 80% off all deaths have come from. 

Covid deaths are never going to go down to zero. But at that rate you get covid with the vaccine down to basically a bad flu year type of number. A number that virtually nobody ever blinked an eye about before.


----------



## crush (Apr 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Asian cultures aren't as fat and unhealthy as 38% of Americans are.


Check this Bruddah, I swear I'm not making this up.  Espola and his two pals K & L think I just come on here to make things up.  I weighed 218 pounds back in early 2019.  I went through some stressful life challenges from 2017-2019.  I was struggling bro.  Lost it all and was down for the count.  I looked up and told you know who that I wont give in and take the cheater bait.  I just wont I said because.  My wife gave me a heads up on BG and his pals of bandits way before the Rona.  I got a heads up so I quit eating red meat and went all in veggies, fruits and nuts.  I swear I now way 178 Lbs.  I lost 40 big ones.  My waste line where all that toxic shit lived is gone.  Abs for the wife is pleasing to her eyes and she is so proud of me.  I have 32 wayest from 38 bro.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Further in AZ

60% of those 55-64 have been vaccinated
45% of those 45-54 have been vaccinated
And 40% of those 34-44 have been vaccinated

So unless/until a new variant comes out that the vaccines don't work with...covid as a major issue is done. 

By the way. I haven't looked, but I would wager that even in the red states, the population at risk have gotten the vaccine at high rates.


----------



## crush (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way. I haven't looked, but *I would wager* that even in the red states, the population at risk have gotten the vaccine at high rates.


Hound, we still have our wager so dont forget that.  I owe Eagle a keg so I dont mind trying to recoup my loses from you.  When are the girls allowed to battle each other?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

crush said:


> Hound, we still have our wager so dont forget that.  I owe Eagle a keg so I dont mind trying to recoup my loses from you.  When are the girls allowed to battle each other?


Wager still on. Mid May.


----------



## crush (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Wager still on. Mid May.


Were coming for you dude.  If she can stay injury free from all the targeting in HSS ((lol)), we will make sure to make it out to AZ and let it all ride.  I told my dd if her team wins and she helps me take down Hound, I will give her a gift card to the mall down in Santa Monica.  I'm all in dude.  I keep going double or nothing too so I never lose.  I have nothing to lose anyways.  My life got sucked by leaches who suck you so dry you need water only to survive with fruits and veggies


----------



## dad4 (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Further in AZ
> 
> 60% of those 55-64 have been vaccinated
> 45% of those 45-54 have been vaccinated
> ...


Nationally, vaccination rates for over 65 are running about 80%.   Perhaps half of the remainder have had it already.  

So, not quite over.  About 10% of the high risk population remains.  

To the extent that young people follow your lead and say “what’s in it for me”, we will gradually infect that 10% and see some number of additional deaths.   Nothing like this past winter.  On the order of small tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.   

To the extent that we all get vaccinated, we will reach herd immunity and it will be over without having those unnecessary deaths.


----------



## espola (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is exactly why there is a difference in vaccination between the 2.
> 
> With one (covid) if you are under 50 you have little to no risk. With polio that wasn't the case.
> 
> ...


Back when polio was a public health issue, less than 1% of those diagnosed with polio in childhood ssuffered permanent damage.  It was endemic among the world population, was usually contracted at a young age, and most people recovered completely after suffering through an illness similar to a bad cold, and the great majority with no symptoms whatsoever.  Essentially, the human race had evolved to a state of coexistence with the disease.


----------



## espola (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is exactly why there is a difference in vaccination between the 2.
> 
> With one (covid) if you are under 50 you have little to no risk. With polio that wasn't the case.
> 
> ...


You don't remember SARS or swine flu?  Perhaps you shouldn't expand your condition of willful ignorance to the whole society.  You can thank those of us who got our flu shots regularly for protecting you from an uncontrolled spread of the disease.


----------



## crush (Apr 26, 2021)

espola said:


> You don't remember SARS or swine flu?  Perhaps you shouldn't expand your condition of willful ignorance to the whole society.  You can thank those of us who got our flu shots regularly for protecting you from an uncontrolled spread of the disease.


How much you weigh bro?  Let's see a pic of you today.  Do it Magoo......


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Remember since the beginning of this till now *only 266* people under the age of 17 have died.
> 
> It just isn't a group that has any risk at all. So even with the "slew" of childhood cancer patients, that has not translated into large number of deaths over the past year.
> 
> ...


I can only speak to my (unfortunate) experience with childhood cancer- and trust me when I say this is dangerous for them. Pardon me but it seems as if you look at low death rate as not meaning much of an impact? For a child going through chemo, any type of viral illness is major- doesn't always mean death, no. But is that all we care about? It may mean them having blood counts so low their therapy is stopped until they rebound, (which is dangerous,) it may mean them catching it and being put in the PICU, (expensive, exhausting, stressful hospital stay,) or worst case dying- which I know first hand has happened.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I can only speak to my (unfortunate) experience with childhood cancer- and trust me when I say this is dangerous for them. Pardon me but it seems as if you look at low death rate as not meaning much of an impact? For a child going through chemo, any type of viral illness is major- doesn't always mean death, no. But is that all we care about? It may mean them having blood counts so low their therapy is stopped until they rebound, (which is dangerous,) it may mean them catching it and being put in the PICU, (expensive, exhausting, stressful hospital stay,) or worst case dying- which I know first hand has happened.


I am not denigrating or minimizing anyone who has, has gone through or lost a family member from cancer. I have experience in this area.

What I was pointing out is that if you are under 17 there is no risk. If there were there would be a lot more than 270 deaths out of 580k.

Further:

*Conclusions*
_Children with cancer with SARS-CoV-2 infection do not appear at increased risk of severe infection compared to the general paediatric population. This is reassuring and supports the continued delivery of standard treatment._









						Severity of COVID-19 in children with cancer: Report from the United Kingdom Paediatric Coronavirus Cancer Monitoring Project - British Journal of Cancer
					

Children with cancer are frequently immunocompromised. While children are generally thought to be at less risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection than adults, comprehensive population-based evidence for the risk in children with cancer is unavailable. We aimed to produce evidence of the incidence...




					www.nature.com
				




*Summary*
*Background*
Although mortality due to COVID-19 has been reportedly low among children with cancer, changes in health-care services due to the pandemic have affected cancer care delivery. 









						Global effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric cancer care: a cross-sectional study
					

The COVID-19 pandemic has considerably affected paediatric oncology services worldwide, posing substantial disruptions to cancer diagnosis and management, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. This study emphasises the urgency of an equitably distributed robust global response...



					www.thelancet.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> *Summary*
> *Background*
> Although mortality due to COVID-19 has been reportedly low among children with cancer, changes in health-care services due to the pandemic have affected cancer care delivery.


It seems based on the survey above there really isn't much of a threat to kids with cancer. 

The problem has been...and is the same with various age groups is that care for other diseases during the pandemic was affected. People not getting checked out, services limited due to hospital usage, resources were limited, etc. 

With the main at risk age group being substantially vaccinated, the pressure on the medical system should drop dramatically, which means we can get back to taking care of people as we were prior to the outbreak.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Biden and Harris claimed covid would be priority #1.

Biden hasn't been in on any meetings and Harris just 1.









						Biden, Harris Skipping Weekly COVID Calls With Governors, Leaving Cuomo in Charge
					

Cuomo, the man under investigation for nursing home deaths and sexual harassment, is in charge of weekly COVID calls with other governors.




					legalinsurrection.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Biden and Harris claimed covid would be priority #1.
> 
> Biden hasn't been in on any meetings and Harris just 1.
> 
> ...


You really are desperate. Should they attend mayoral conferences as well? You applauded the orange man’s feeble response, hence you have no footing on the issue or any other in that case.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You really are desperate. Should they attend mayoral conferences as well? You applauded the orange man’s feeble response, hence you have no footing on the issue or any other in that case.


Actually T and/or P were in on all the weekly calls. 

The guys in the campaign that said they would make this their #1 priority apparently cannot be bothered to work with the various governors.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Speaking of the new guys in charge. Kerry is running around telling the Iranians info that US intelligence has regarding Israel and what they are doing in Syria.









						John Kerry Divulged HUNDREDS of Israel's Covert Attacks to Iran, Leak Reveals
					

Former Secretary of State John Kerry revealed hundreds of Israeli covert attacks to Iran, according to leaked audio.




					pjmedia.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Speaking of the new guys in charge. Kerry is running around telling the Iranians info that US intelligence has regarding Israel and what they are doing in Syria.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You are desperate and naive, bad combo.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You are desperate and naive, bad combo.


Desperate and naive? That bit of news originally came from places like the NY Times. 

You as usual are desperate to dismiss what the news is. 

And that news is we have a guy running around passing US intelligence info about an ally to a country that has been a problem to us and most of the west since the late 70's.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Biden and Harris claimed covid would be priority #1.
> 
> Biden hasn't been in on any meetings and Harris just 1.
> 
> ...


You're searching for a complaint.

Biden's done a wonderful, boring job.  He promised me a vaccine rollout.  He delivered.

Do I care whether it was Joe or some staff members who handled the details?  No.  He got the job done.

Joe can take 23 hour naps for all I care.  As long as he appoints competent people and they do a good job, I can't complain.  This is so much better than a year ago.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It seems based on the survey above there really isn't much of a threat to kids with cancer.
> 
> The problem has been...and is the same with various age groups is that care for other diseases during the pandemic was affected. People not getting checked out, services limited due to hospital usage, resources were limited, etc.
> 
> With the main at risk age group being substantially vaccinated, the pressure on the medical system should drop dramatically, which means we can get back to taking care of people as we were prior to the outbreak.


Here's the thing though- if you have experience with childhood cancer, you'd understand that kids undergoing daily chemo absolutely(!) should not risj getting covid- you should know that with their immune systems we can't gamble on the "oh- kids have low risk." It's just not apples to apples. If we're fortunate that they remain unscathed then great- but have you checked acog studies? Just had a meeting with my sons oncolgist who still says it's very scary for kids on chemo. No offense, but I am going to listen to him since he's been treating my son since 2014.


----------



## crush (Apr 26, 2021)

“To celebrate our *independence from this virus* on July 4th with family and friends in small groups, we still have more to do in the months of May and June. We all need to *mask up* until the number of cases goes down, until everyone has a chance to* get their shot.*”


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You're searching for a complaint.
> 
> Biden's done a wonderful, boring job.  He promised me a vaccine rollout.  He delivered.
> 
> ...


The vaccine was already rolling out. Biden hasn't changed the plan in place.

He gets credit for sticking with the plan, but he hasn't made and big changes.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Here's the thing though- if you have experience with childhood cancer, you'd understand that kids undergoing daily chemo absolutely(!) should not risj getting covid- you should know that with their immune systems we can't gamble on the "oh- kids have low risk." It's just not apples to apples. If we're fortunate that they remain unscathed then great- but have you checked acog studies? Just had a meeting with my sons oncolgist who still says it's very scary for kids on chemo. No offense, but I am going to listen to him since he's been treating my son since 2014.


I am going to go by the studies presented. If I were a parent I too would have been initially worried. After seeing the actual data come in, I would feel lots better about the covid angle, and would go back to stressing on fighting the cancer.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The vaccine was already rolling out. Biden hasn't changed the plan in place.
> 
> He gets credit for sticking with the plan, but he *hasn't made any big changes.*


Exactly.  Nice and boring.  No big changes.

Unlike his predecessor, Biden doesn't take a sharpie and try to correct his scientists' work.  (What on earth made T think he was qualified to forecast the path of a hurricane?  Or devise a covid treatment using household chemicals?)

Instead, Biden listens to the experts and makes sure there are people worrying about all the implementation details.  Little things like: do we have enough of the right kind of syringe.  

It's a nice change.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Exactly.  Nice and boring.  No big changes.
> 
> Unlike his predecessor, Biden doesn't take a sharpie and try to correct his scientists' work.  (What on earth made T think he was qualified to forecast the path of a hurricane?  Or devise a covid treatment using household chemicals?)
> 
> ...


It’s a life saving change!


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Exactly.  Nice and boring.  No big changes.
> 
> Unlike his predecessor, Biden doesn't take a sharpie and try to correct his scientists' work.  (What on earth made T think he was qualified to forecast the path of a hurricane?  Or devise a covid treatment using household chemicals?)
> 
> ...


So he hasn't done anything. Your first statement said he promised a vaccine rollout and has followed through.

He simply is coloring between the lines.. ie he didn't change the plan. I mean I am glad he didn't...but I don't give him credit other than not screwing up the plan in place. In other words you and I and the rest of us are happy he didn't screw up the plan in place right?


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> It’s a life saving change!


A life saving change? 

He didn't change anything. Fortunately he followed through on the plan in place.

So credit where credit is due...he didn't change the plan.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

There have been a few cases hitting the news both here and abroad of Guillian Barre and paralysis with the Pfizer vaccine. First up was a teen who was an essential worker a few weeks back which was dismissed as noise since GB can occur for other reasons but now it’s hit a few women (one with epilepsy). It’s a condition associated with many other vaccines and may not yet be above the statistical noise but a) there’s enough of them now to trigger an inquiry (there’s roughly as many known as with the blood clots in the us) and b) there’s enough that it may gain traction on sm and media.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 27, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Less than 4 weeks for Osterholm's prediction.
> 
> View attachment 10574


Less than two weeks for the Category 5 hurricane of cases like nothing we've ever seen. 


**


----------



## dad4 (Apr 27, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Less than two weeks for the Category 5 hurricane of cases like nothing we've ever seen.
> 
> View attachment 10649
> *View attachment 10651*


Yes, Osterholm’s projection was way off, and epidemiologists are not the type to have a feud on national TV.  

I take it you keep posting this because you want to undermine anything else we hear from epidemiologists.

India had a similar reaction.  They decided that the eggheads clearly don’t know what they are talking about.  Here’s an article from a month ago, explaining that epidemiologists predictions are all wrong, and that Indians have nothing to worry about.









						Covid-19 in India: Five predictions that turned out to be false | India News - Times of India
					

India News: NEW DELHI: It has been a year since India announced one of the most stringent nationwide lockdowns in the world to curb the spread of Covid-19.




					timesofindia.indiatimes.com
				




Five weeks later, India has the world’s worst case spike and is in desperate need of medical help.  Maybe those eggheads knew a little bit after all.


----------



## watfly (Apr 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> He simply is coloring between the lines.. ie he didn't change the plan. I mean I am glad he didn't...but I don't give him credit other than not screwing up the plan in place. In other words you and I and the rest of us are happy he didn't screw up the plan in place right?


Unfortunately, not screwing up is the new bar for success we've set for our politicians and leadership


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes, Osterholm’s projection was way off, and epidemiologists are not the type to have a feud on national TV.
> 
> I take it you keep posting this because you want to undermine anything else we hear from epidemiologists.
> 
> ...


The article seems to literally point out the  assumptions epidemiologists were wrong about India. What’s more I haven’t seen anyone who nailed the timing and scope of the wave (ethical skeptic with his planting season nailed the time but not scope and he’s not an epidemiologists). They missed entirely when the surge would take place.  It’s kind of like your nailing when the 3rd wave would happening but then mixing up Florida and Texas for New York and Michigan.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes, Osterholm’s projection was way off, and epidemiologists are not the type to have a feud on national TV.
> 
> I take it you keep posting this because you want to undermine anything else we hear from epidemiologists.
> 
> ...


You should read the article...as you usually say. It doesn't say what you imply above. 

They are mainly talking about predictions made in Spring of 2020.

There were 5 predictions the article talks about.

1) In March of 2020 they (some center) predicted HALF of India would by infected by Feb of 2021. As of the article publish date there were at about 12 million.

So the experts were wrong on that prediction.

2) The Univ of Washington predicted that by Dec of 2020 India would have 490k deaths. As of today India is at 200k.

So the experts were wrong on that predication.

3) The experts said that the virus may not be easily transmitted in hot and humid environments. That prediction was made around the onset of the pandemic.  The article points out that has been proven wrong.

So the experts were wrong on that predication.

4) The gov predicted that India would have NO CASES by May 2020.
We know that has been wrong.

So the experts were wrong on that prediction.

5) They said the lockdowns would be effective in stopping the virus.

This didnt happen either.

So the experts were wrong on that prediction.

There is NOTHING in that article that says India has nothing to worry about. As a matter of fact the very last sentence in the article says
"A year on, the Covid-19 threat is far from over."

If anything the article points out again that time and time again the experts have been WRONG.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> Unfortunately, not screwing up is the new bar for success we've set for our politicians and leadership


Considering who we elect, maybe not screwing up is the best we can hope for 

We spend more time voting for people with good looks (Newsome), based on skin color (yeah for diversity!!!), etc, etc. instead of voting for people that present ideas that actually may work.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

Apparently now for masks outside it doesn't matter if you are vaccinated or unvaccinated, if at least you are walking.  Who knew. ^\_(;?)_/^



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/27/cdc-guidance-masks-outdoors/


----------



## watfly (Apr 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Apparently now for masks outside it doesn't matter if you are vaccinated or unvaccinated, if at least you are walking.  Who knew. ^\_(;?)_/^
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/27/cdc-guidance-masks-outdoors/


Umm, a day late and a dollar short.  The majority of the public has been doing this for months.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The article seems to literally point out the  assumptions epidemiologists were wrong about India. What’s more I haven’t seen anyone who nailed the timing and scope of the wave (ethical skeptic with his planting season nailed the time but not scope and he’s not an epidemiologists). They missed entirely when the surge would take place.  It’s kind of like your nailing when the 3rd wave would happening but then mixing up Florida and Texas for New York and Michigan.


Who said it was possible to accurately forecast the exact timing and scope of the wave?  

My point is that it is dangerous to dismiss the best advice we have.  Yes, the best advice is seriously flawed.  But it is still a really bad idea to throw it out.

Remember that it was hound, not me, beating the drum on TX and FL.  Don’t assume I said it just because hound wanted to put words in my mouth.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Remember that it was hound, not me, beating the drum on TX and FL. Don’t assume I said it just because hound wanted to put words in my mouth.


I was beating the drum on those. Because you were saying it was a bad idea to open up, ditch mask mandates, etc. I was also beating the drum because they have had kids in school all year long. CA hasn't. Based on the actual data more than a year in, you may as well have had in person classes in CA. 

I am going to beat the drums all day long on education, etc.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I was beating the drum on those. Because you were saying it was a bad idea to open up, ditch mask mandates, etc. I was also beating the drum because they have had kids in school all year long. CA hasn't. Based on the actual data more than a year in, you may as well have had in person classes in CA.
> 
> I am going to beat the drums all day long on education, etc.


I find it odd that educators aren’t beating that drum, but just the opposite.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

A handy dandy chart ^\_(;?)_/^

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387082471431356423


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> Umm, a day late and a dollar short.  The majority of the public has been doing this for months.


Yeah, but there's still that hard core 1/3.  Last night at the park while kiddo practicing passed two people in their 50s-60s fully masked on the walking trail.  Got the ol "if you aren't wearing a mask don't cross our walking path".  But today I guess it's just fine.


----------



## watfly (Apr 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, but there's still that hard core 1/3.  Last night at the park while kiddo practicing passed two people in their 50s-60s fully masked on the walking trail.  Got the ol "if you aren't wearing a mask don't cross our walking path".  But today I guess it's just fine.


I've never worn a mask outside exercising, but I do step away from the trail or path a few feet to let people pass (mask or no mask) just out of courtesy and to avoid confrontation from the Chicken Littles.  Irrational fear othen leads to irrational behavior.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> I've never worn a mask outside exercising, but I do step away from the trail or path a few feet to let people pass (mask or no mask) just out of courtesy and to avoid confrontation from the Chicken Littles.  Irrational fear othen leads to irrational behavior.


It's kind of like the ol soccer you can't impede v. every player is entitled to their space.  Was I entering into their space or were they entering into mine? ^\_(;?)_/^


----------



## dad4 (Apr 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> I've never worn a mask outside exercising, but I do step away from the trail or path a few feet to let people pass (mask or no mask) just out of courtesy and to avoid confrontation from the Chicken Littles.  Irrational fear othen leads to irrational behavior.


It’s just basic politeness.  It you see someone with a mask, you know that they, in their view, consider it appropriate.  So you put yours on as you pass.

It doesn’t really matter whose risk assessment is most accurate.


----------



## watfly (Apr 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So you put yours on as you pass.
> 
> It doesn’t really matter whose risk assessment is most accurate.


I don't carry a mask exercising, I give them their 6 feet.  Only idiots think you can get Covid by passing by someone outdoors.  Fortunately only a small minority still wear masks outside, which is restoring my faith in people's common sense.

Don't know if you caught the press conference, but I feel so lucky that Joe may allow us to celebrate the 4th of July.  I think I can be obedient for another 6 weeks.  We get to celebrate both our independence from England and Covid lockdown tyranny.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A handy dandy chart ^\_(;?)_/^
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387082471431356423


What is amazing is how they have a substantial amount of activities for VACCINATED people needing masks. 

BS. If you are vaccinated you are good to go. You are neither at any real risk of catching covid NOR are you a risk to spread covid.


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> What is amazing is how they have a substantial amount of activities for VACCINATED people needing masks.
> 
> BS. If you are vaccinated you are good to go. You are neither at any real risk of catching covid NOR are you a risk to spread covid.


There is nothing the vaccination that inhibits the virus from entering your body or for it to spread from there to others.  The vaccination makes it less likely that the virus will grow well enough in your body to make you ill.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

Things in Japan not looking too great either. At this rate they'll hit at least their winter peak, which wasn't as bad in comparison to say Europe, but Japan has only vaccinated 1% of its population and it's testing is still really shoddy.  Their death rate is still relatively low...we'll see if that changes but their policy of focusing on protecting the elderly did hold down deaths during the winter wave.









						Japan rocked by fourth COVID wave months before Olympics
					

Bars, department stores and theaters across Japan will be closed for 17 days.




					www.axios.com
				




South Korea despite all their precautions is now near 800 cases per day.









						South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> There is nothing the vaccination that .... or for it to spread from there to others.  The vaccination makes it less likely that the virus will grow well enough in your body to make you ill.


While it hasn't been firmly established yet, like many (most?) vaccines, there is proof growing that vaccination also makes it less likely that you'll pass it on to others, perhaps substantially, though there are breakthrough infections, and breakthrough infections of others.









						Yes, vaccines block most transmission of COVID-19
					

The latest data show that getting a shot not only protects vaccinated individuals, it reduces the chance they can spread the virus to others.




					www.nationalgeographic.co.uk


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> There is nothing the vaccination that inhibits the virus from entering your body or for it to spread from there to others.  The vaccination makes it less likely that the virus will grow well enough in your body to make you ill.


Actually that is false. So far they have found that vaccinated people are not spreaders of the virus.









						It's official: Vaccinated people don't spread COVID-19
					

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky this week declared that "vaccinated people do not carry the virus."




					fortune.com


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Actually that is false. So far they have found that vaccinated people are not spreaders of the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Nothing I posted was false.  From the article you linked --

" very unlikely to spread it to other people"


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes, Osterholm’s projection was way off, and epidemiologists are not the type to have a feud on national TV.
> 
> I take it you keep posting this because you want to undermine anything else we hear from epidemiologists.
> 
> ...


Maybe we should flip a coin?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> I've never worn a mask outside exercising, but I do step away from the trail or path a few feet to let people pass (mask or no mask) just out of courtesy and to avoid confrontation from the Chicken Littles.  Irrational fear othen leads to irrational behavior.


This is my behavior and thought process as well.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 27, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Maybe we should flip a coin?


Just think about where you want to be, given that you have imperfect information and will slightly miss your target.  You can try to ride the edge of just enough caution to avoid a giant wave, but you will sometimes get it wrong.  That is Michigan last month, or India today.

Being overcautious is simple.  Being careless is easy.  Staying one inch below disaster is difficult, if not impossible.

And you have advocates for each.  Overcautious (me).  Careless (hound).  One inch below disaster (Grace)


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Nothing I posted was false.  From the article you linked --
> 
> " very unlikely to spread it to other people"


Yeah so they don't/or are unlikely. 

As such ditch the mask. 

We don't vaccinate people for other diseases and then tell them to mask up, etc. 

Especially in light of the fact that as of now the research cannot show a benefit in wearing a mask. 

So time to move back to life as normal.


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yeah so they don't/or are unlikely.
> 
> As such ditch the mask.
> 
> ...


Just because you have posted an error many times does not make it true (except in your own head, I admit).

I know pretty well how vaccines work.  I am interested in listening to your personal theory.


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Let me rewrite for you.
> 
> Paranoid (@dad4) looking at data and realizing there is really no risk (me), in the same ballpark...ie looks at data and does cost benefit.  (Grace)


There an infinity of ways how a cost-benefit analysis can work out.  Such an analysis should not, however, be based on falsehoods.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just think about where you want to be, given that you have imperfect information and will slightly miss your target.  You can try to ride the edge of just enough caution to avoid a giant wave, but you will sometimes get it wrong.  That is Michigan last month, or India today.
> 
> Being overcautious is simple.  Being careless is easy.  Staying one inch below disaster is difficult, if not impossible.
> 
> And you have advocates for each.  Overcautious (me).  Careless (hound).  One inch below disaster (Grace)


Once again, you misconstrue and assume the worst, just like you always do, like you did assuming I go off and party indoors all the time.  Once again, you neglect that your overcautiousness has led you to be consistently wrong.

I've never advocated no restrictions.  Even Sweden doesn't have no restrictions.  I've advocated an approach more like Sweden/Florida, but with periodic restrictions reserved for when things get really bad.  Like Florida and Japan, I thought we needed to do a better job of protecting seniors.  I wasn't opposed to indoor mask mandates, but I thought the restrictions were too severe with children and the handicapable, I thought we should have been honest about what they could actually accomplish, and I thought outdoor mandates were stupid.  And I opposed restrictions on schools and sports.  I thought even Trump's travel ban and airplane restrictions were too weak.  And unlike you, I never was a hypocrite by agreeing to go to a high risk hotel.

In the end there's a record of which one of us was more right than the other and it's not you.  And again, you really should look at the company you are keeping.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Maybe we should flip a coin?


May as well....even a broken clock gets it right 2x a day.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just think about where you want to be, given that you have imperfect information and will slightly miss your target.  You can try to ride the edge of just enough caution to avoid a giant wave, but you will sometimes get it wrong.  That is Michigan last month, or India today.
> 
> Being overcautious is simple.  Being careless is easy.  Staying one inch below disaster is difficult, if not impossible.
> 
> And you have advocates for each.  Overcautious (me).  Careless (hound).  One inch below disaster (Grace)


BTW "scared" is another word for "overcautious"


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Such an analysis should not, however, be based on falsehoods.


The data I pull are from the CDC, WHO, the EU version of the CDC, etc. 

That is the problem you and others have. You don't actually go look at the data and the studies. 

So you are stuck listening to the news and some talking head say wear a mask they work. Or recently Fauci was saying there were no studies on a certain issue, despite the fact that the CDC just a few weeks ago had came out with one that contradicted his point.


----------



## watfly (Apr 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> BTW "scared" is another word for "overcautious"


Apparently "overcautious" is also a euphemism for "irrational fear", a fact I was unaware of until recently.


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The data I pull are from the CDC, WHO, the EU version of the CDC, etc.
> 
> That is the problem you and others have. You don't actually go look at the data and the studies.
> 
> So you are stuck listening to the news and some talking head say wear a mask they work. Or recently Fauci was saying there were no studies on a certain issue, despite the fact that the CDC just a few weeks ago had came out with one that contradicted his point.


Your suggestion that masks do not work is one of those falsehoods.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Your suggestion that masks do not work is one of those falsehoods.


The truth or falseness of this all circles around how one defines "work" (i.e., what one expects them to do).


----------



## watfly (Apr 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The truth or falseness of this all circles around how one defines "work" (i.e., what one expects them to do).


and type of mask.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Your suggestion that masks do not work is one of those falsehoods.


Here is the CDC talking about why the vaccinated should wear a mask. It isn't because they are worried about transmission.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Your suggestion that masks do not work is one of those falsehoods.


Actually it isn't. You just choose not to pay attention.

Just last week I posted a study from the National Institute of Health. To remind you that is our nations medical research center. This study just came out recently as well.

What did they say regarding masks?

"Although, *scientific evidence supporting facemasks’ efficacy is lacking*, adverse physiological, psychological and health effects are established."

"The physical properties of medical and non-medical facemasks suggest* that facemasks are ineffective* to block viral particles due to their difference in scales [16], [17], [25]. According to the current knowledge, the virus SARS-CoV-2 has a diameter of 60 nm to 140 nm [nanometers (billionth of a meter)] [16], [17], while medical and non-medical facemasks’ thread diameter ranges from 55 µm to 440 µm [micrometers (one millionth of a meter), which is more than 1000 times larger [25]. *Due to the difference in sizes between SARS-CoV-2 diameter and facemasks thread diameter (the virus is 1000 times smaller), SARS-CoV-2 can easily pass through any facemask **[*25]."

So...no @espola I am not spreading falsehoods. I am telling you what the science is saying.

Because you are a true believer or have not actually bothered to read the studies,  means that you still think masks are effective.

If you want me to post again...I can post recent studies form the EU CDC and the WHO who both also state that they don't know if masks work and want more studies to see if they do. 









						Facemasks in the COVID-19 era: A health hypothesis
					

Many countries across the globe utilized medical and non-medical facemasks as non-pharmaceutical intervention for reducing the transmission and infectivity of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Although, scientific evidence supporting facemasks’ ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Your suggestion that masks do not work is one of those falsehoods.


And the last quote from the study above said the following: 

"A _meta_-analysis among health care workers *found that compared to no masks*, surgical mask and N95 respirators *were not effective *against transmission of viral infections or influenza-like illness based on six RCTs [28]. Using separate analysis of 23 observational studies, this _meta_-analysis *found no protective effect of medical mask or N95 respirators against SARS virus* [28]. A recent systematic review of 39 studies including 33,867 participants in community settings (self-report illness), *found no difference between N95 respirators versus surgical masks and surgical mask versus no masks in the risk for developing influenza or influenza-like illness, suggesting their ineffectiveness of blocking viral transmissions in community settings [29]."*

I know you want to believe....but I am not spreading falsehoods.


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And the last quote from the study above said the following:
> 
> "A _meta_-analysis among health care workers *found that compared to no masks*, surgical mask and N95 respirators *were not effective *against transmission of viral infections or influenza-like illness based on six RCTs [28]. Using separate analysis of 23 observational studies, this _meta_-analysis *found no protective effect of medical mask or N95 respirators against SARS virus* [28]. A recent systematic review of 39 studies including 33,867 participants in community settings (self-report illness), *found no difference between N95 respirators versus surgical masks and surgical mask versus no masks in the risk for developing influenza or influenza-like illness, suggesting their ineffectiveness of blocking viral transmissions in community settings [29]."*
> 
> I know you want to believe....but I am not spreading falsehoods.


It appears you started with a preferred conclusion and went looking for publications (or, as in this case, a "hypothesis") that support it.  

I'm still waiting to hear your description of how vaccines work.


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And the last quote from the study above said the following:
> 
> "A _meta_-analysis among health care workers *found that compared to no masks*, surgical mask and N95 respirators *were not effective *against transmission of viral infections or influenza-like illness based on six RCTs [28]. Using separate analysis of 23 observational studies, this _meta_-analysis *found no protective effect of medical mask or N95 respirators against SARS virus* [28]. A recent systematic review of 39 studies including 33,867 participants in community settings (self-report illness), *found no difference between N95 respirators versus surgical masks and surgical mask versus no masks in the risk for developing influenza or influenza-like illness, suggesting their ineffectiveness of blocking viral transmissions in community settings [29]."*
> 
> I know you want to believe....but I am not spreading falsehoods.


"The author of the article, Baruch Vainshelboim, is listed as part of the cardiology division at the Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System at Stanford University.  But he has no affiliation with Stanford, according to the university. Stanford School of Medicine spokeswoman Julie Greicius said in a prepared statement that Stanford supports the use of face masks to control the spread of COVID-19."









						Fact check: Study falsely claiming face masks are harmful, ineffective is not linked to Stanford
					

A mask study in Medical Hypotheses links its author to Stanford; the university said he isn't affiliated. Further the study pushes debunked theories.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## happy9 (Apr 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> Apparently "overcautious" is also a euphemism for "irrational fear", a fact I was unaware of until recently.


So is being told to put on  a mask while pumping gas at a CA Costco irrational or overcautious?


----------



## watfly (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> It appears you started with a preferred conclusion and went looking for publications (or, as in this case, a "hypothesis") that support it.


So what, he's correct regardless.

I love Dad4 and Espola's "yeah, but" debate tactics.  It's effective because it works for everything and can go on for infinity.


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> So what, he's correct regardless.
> 
> I love Dad4 and Espola's "yeah, but" debate tactics.  It's effective because it works for everything and can go on for infinity.


The USA Today article I linked debunks Professor von Numbnuts pretty thoroughly.

Here it is again ---









						Fact check: Study falsely claiming face masks are harmful, ineffective is not linked to Stanford
					

A mask study in Medical Hypotheses links its author to Stanford; the university said he isn't affiliated. Further the study pushes debunked theories.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## watfly (Apr 27, 2021)

happy9 said:


> So is being told to put on  a mask while pumping gas at a CA Costco irrational or overcautious?


I'd probably go with unnecessary, unless you were sniffing the gas in which case I'd recommend a respirator.


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> The USA Today article I linked debunks Professor von Numbnuts pretty thoroughly.
> 
> Here it is again ---
> 
> ...


DH could have done his credibility a favor with a little research into the author --






						Seeing Is Not Necessarily Believing | Amgen Biotech Experience
					






					www.amgenbiotechexperience.com


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> DH could have done his credibility a favor with a little research into the author --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And more --









						Stories Falsely Cite 'Stanford Study' to Misinform on Face Masks - FactCheck.org
					

Stanford Medicine says it "strongly supports the use of face masks to control the spread of COVID-19." Yet viral stories falsely claim a "Stanford study" showed that face masks are unsafe and ineffective against COVID-19. The paper is a hypothesis, not a study, from someone with no current...




					www.factcheck.org


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> And more --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And now something about the Journal Medical Hypotheses in which von Numbnuts published his work ==

"A previous editor wrote in 2008: “The journal’s official stance is that more harm is done by a failure to publish one idea that might have been true, than by publishing a dozen ideas that turn out to be false.” 

This suggests that theories in the journal should, at the very least, be taken with a pinch of salt. 

Claims that the journal is peer-reviewed are misleading. 

Peer review is a form of quality control whereby independent experts assess the methods, results and conclusions made by a forthcoming scientific paper, prior to publication. 

In an interview in 2010, the current editor of Medical Hypotheses said that the journal would not use “classical peer review”. "









						Error-strewn paper claims face masks are ineffective and harmful - Full Fact
					

The ‘peer-reviewed paper from Stanford’ is not from Stanford and may not have been conventionally peer-reviewed.




					fullfact.org


----------



## espola (Apr 27, 2021)

espola said:


> And now something about the Journal Medical Hypotheses in which von Numbnuts published his work ==
> 
> "A previous editor wrote in 2008: “The journal’s official stance is that more harm is done by a failure to publish one idea that might have been true, than by publishing a dozen ideas that turn out to be false.”
> 
> ...



And finally --

"FALSE"

The paper was published by an exercise physiologist with no academic connection to Stanford University or the NIH in a journal that accepts "radical, speculative and non-mainstream scientific ideas."









						Did a 'Stanford/NIH' Study Conclude Masks Don't Work?
					

Really depends on how you define these words: Stanford, NIH, Study, Conclude, Mask, and Work.




					www.snopes.com
				




“it’s a list of generally discredited hypotheses that have been tested and disproved. … it isn’t science.”


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

Interesting.  If news starts circulating more freely about Gullain Barre in Pfizer I'd think we see a similar effect.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1386845646473285632


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interesting.  If news starts circulating more freely about Gullain Barre in Pfizer I'd think we see a similar effect.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1386845646473285632


Interesting reply to this too.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387189710083268609


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 27, 2021)

Yellow, even with the adjustments, was always going to be close to but not quite impossible to get to for some counties.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387189092501262336


----------



## crush (Apr 27, 2021)

I got told twice today by some so called friends of mine to do the right thing.  I asked, "and what is the right thing to do?"  They said, "get the dam shot and STFU so we can get back to Normal.  BG says we should be back to Mr and Mrs Normal family by end of 2022 as long as everyone obeys and get injected twice and every year thereafter.  Just like all the other flu shots.  That means we have 18 more months of this hate filled life that is filled with fear.  Do the right thing and get the shots they say.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 27, 2021)

crush said:


> I got told twice today by some so called friends of mine to do the right thing.  I asked, "and what is the right thing to do?"  They said, "get the dam shot and STFU so we can get back to Normal.  BG says we should be back to Mr and Mrs Normal family by end of 2022 as long as everyone obeys and get injected twice and every year thereafter.  Just like all the other flu shots.  That means we have 18 more months of this hate filled life that is filled with fear.  Do the right thing and get the shots they say.


It's where we are now as a country, Crush. Generally, we can't even have civil political debates as a society. It's sad. Oddly enough, the ones we have here (minus the troll and his multiple aliases) are quite civil. I strongly believe in getting the vaccine, but not so much that I want to force anyone to do so. I believe that is counterproductive in the long run and further divides us as a nation. It's more important for me to listen and attempt to understand opposing viewpoints than to convince others that my thoughts are superior. To me, the type of power needed to force others to get a vaccine against their will is worse than the disease. I'm not saying that there isn't a disease or situation where I wouldn't consider it, but it's not this one.


----------



## crush (Apr 28, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's where we are now as a country, Crush. Generally, we can't even have civil political debates as a society. It's sad. Oddly enough, the ones we have here (minus the troll and his multiple aliases) are quite civil. I strongly believe in getting the vaccine, but not so much that I want to force anyone to do so. I believe that is counterproductive in the long run and further divides us as a nation. It's more important for me to listen and attempt to understand opposing viewpoints than to convince others that my thoughts are superior. To me, the type of power needed to force others to get a vaccine against their will is worse than the disease. I'm not saying that there isn't a disease or situation where I wouldn't consider it, but it's not this one.


I super appreciate you kicking and screaming.  I feel your support, I truly do.  We will all find out soon what's truly happening.  My out-laws have a different attitude.  They think my wife and I are being selfish and holding up the normal life we were all promised.  Check this out.  One of my wife's relatives has a boyfriend now who is also a big time teacher.  I just met this dude Sunday.  First impression:  Super over weight and has heart issues from eating fast food all the time and looks horrible physically.  This guy lectured me for over 30 minutes on why I need the shot and how proud he is for getting his shots.  I told him the best thing to do is to be healthy and stop eating red meat, fast food and all the poison in the foods.  Dude walked away from me and told me, "You will need to get the shot if you want to travel."  He said it with a smirk so we shall see.  This is going to be way more intense then being yelled at from a Starbucks Batista for wearing my mask below my nose.  Just wait bro.  I hope when they drag me off to the nut farm you will stand up and defend my rights.  Will you take a bullet for me so I dont have to take the shots?


----------



## crush (Apr 28, 2021)




----------



## watfly (Apr 28, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's where we are now as a country, Crush. Generally, we can't even have civil political debates as a society. It's sad. Oddly enough, the ones we have here (minus the troll and his multiple aliases) are quite civil. I strongly believe in getting the vaccine, but not so much that I want to force anyone to do so. I believe that is counterproductive in the long run and further divides us as a nation. It's more important for me to listen and attempt to understand opposing viewpoints than to convince others that my thoughts are superior. To me, the type of power needed to force others to get a vaccine against their will is worse than the disease. I'm not saying that there isn't a disease or situation where I wouldn't consider it, but it's not this one.


As usual, I agree with you 100%.

Maybe I'm overthinking this, but to me this is a symptom of the growing culture of being more concerned with other people's behaviors instead of your own.  This mentality impacts all facets of our lives these days, and in particular, the Covid response.  Your odds of contracting Covid were overwhelming based upon your own behavior and not the behavior of others.   I was raised differently, so I just don't understand the mentality of people telling others what is best for their life and family.  I understand and support having an opinion, but taking away someone's legal choices because you think you know what's better for me is antithetical to our Country's well founded philosophies.  There is "more that one way to skin a cat",  yet some powers to be (arguably the elitists, academics so-called intellectuals and/or the self professed experts) believe that they know the right way for everyone.  Purely for illustration purposes...Dad4 and I took dramatically different approaches to the pandemic, yet we both reached the same result.  He took the "overcautious" approach, and I took what I believed to be the "balanced" approach.  We were both happy with our *CHOICES* and that's how it should be. 

One of the interesting ironies of the being more concerned for others behavior, as opposed to you own, is that it leads to a lack of accountability for the individual and promotes a victim mentality. It also leads to this inability to have civil debates.

Compliance through fear is never going to work on the majority of Americans, but that is the exact methodology the was used by most of our "leadership".  Let's look back on some of the things we were told about the virus.  You remember when we were told we needed to sanitize our groceries and the boxes we received in the mail?  This is my personal favorite,  we were told by an "expert" at Scripps that sea breezes could carry the virus long distances:








						UC San Diego virus expert pleads with surfers to stay out of the ocean to avoid coronavirus
					

Kim Prather says coastal breezes likely carry coronavirus further than 6 feet




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com
				



That may be the worst recommendation ever among hundreds of bad predictions and recommendations.  The beach is actually where we should all of been exercising, getting fresh air and Vitamin D.   Instead they closed beaches.  Simply issuing "Stay at Home" orders was the worst approach ever.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> This is my personal favorite,  we were told by an "expert" at Scripps that sea breezes could carry the virus long distances:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It's an illness.  They don't even realize it.  In her defense, she may really believe she is contributing to the good of humanity.  Her job is secure, she doesn't have any skin in the game.


----------



## watfly (Apr 28, 2021)

happy9 said:


> It's an illness.  They don't even realize it.  In her defense, she may really believe she is contributing to the good of humanity.  Her job is secure, she doesn't have any skin in the game.


We're all screwed for the next pandemic.  The "crying wolf" by experts, politicians and the media will make compliance, even to good faith restrictions, relatively low.

The virus in most situations was not highly contagious and very rarely fatal, except for the most compromised.  The most dangerous thing about this virus was its unpredictability.


----------



## crush (Apr 28, 2021)

happy9 said:


> It's an illness.  They don't even realize it.  In her defense, she may really believe she is contributing to the good of humanity.  Her job is secure, she doesn't have any skin in the game.


Virus + Fear= Illness + Shots=?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 28, 2021)

Fauci seems confused despite Guthrie trying to help him out but he seems to suggest a vaccinated or unvaccinated adult can walk home without a mask, but a child can't, despite the child being at lower risk than the unvaccinated adult and COVID only very rarely seriously impacts them


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387365207387824129


----------



## crush (Apr 28, 2021)

What's the deal with this new medical term called "Vaccidents?"  I hear folks on the way back from getting shot have a stroke and crash into wall?  This is not satire and not a joke and not being Pokey.  It's an honest question.  Has anyone heard about this?


----------



## watfly (Apr 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci seems confused despite Guthrie trying to help him out but he seems to suggest a vaccinated or unvaccinated adult can walk home without a mask, but a child can't, despite the child being at lower risk than the unvaccinated adult and COVID only very rarely seriously impacts them
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387365207387824129


I saw that this morning.  He's the undisputed king of mixed messaging which is pretty impressive since he has a lot of competition.  How he is still the face of national Covid policy is mind boggling...well actually I know how, he is politically untouchable and the media has given him cult level status.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 28, 2021)

CDC, Fauci Now Support Masking Policies That Scott Atlas Was Ousted For
					

Dr. Scott Atlas was rebuked by Big Tech and corporate media for pushing back on masking outdoors. Now Fauci is making the same recommendation.




					thefederalist.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> I know how, he is politically untouchable and the media has given him cult level status.


You think?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1386661651588567040


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You think?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1386661651588567040


"restrictions will lift with ease"....even their song is wrong.


----------



## watfly (Apr 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You think?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1386661651588567040


That is one of the most disturbing things I've seen in awhile and now I can't get that freaking song out of my mind.  Whose moderating this board?


----------



## happy9 (Apr 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> We're all screwed for the next pandemic.  The "crying wolf" by experts, politicians and the media will make compliance, even to good faith restrictions, relatively low.
> 
> The virus in most situations was not highly contagious and very rarely fatal, except for the most compromised.  The most dangerous thing about this virus was its unpredictability.


No doubt - you can't put the genie back in the bottle.  

It was political from day one, both sides at fault.  Every layer of the response/services infrastructure has been infected and paralyzed by picking a side.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> That is one of the most disturbing things I've seen in awhile and now I can't get that freaking song out of my mind.  Whose moderating this board?


Then you haven't seen this...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387433479734976512


----------



## happy9 (Apr 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You think?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1386661651588567040


Starting them young.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Then you haven't seen this...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387433479734976512


Imagine the focus groups this was tested on.


----------



## watfly (Apr 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Then you haven't seen this...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387433479734976512


I know I posted a long rant about how we should mind our own business and not tell others what to do, well I lied.  You need to get off of Twitter NOW!  That's for both of our benefit.

We've been so concerned about how contagious Covid is, that we've completely ignored how contagious stupid is.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yellow, even with the adjustments, was always going to be close to but not quite impossible to get to for some counties.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387189092501262336


Yellow was never impossible.  Back in early March, most CA counties were on pace to hit yellow some time in April.  Cases were falling by 50% every two weeks.  If we had kept it up, statewide cases would be at about 300 right now, and every county would be in yellow.

That’s not what we did.   In early March, we decided that opening restaurants was more important than low case counts or in person school.  As a result, our progress froze and we’ve been hovering at 2-3K cases per day.  

But don’t say it is impossible to drive case counts down.  We did it for a good two months before we decided that pasta carbonara was more important.


----------



## happy9 (Apr 28, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yellow was never impossible.  Back in early March, most CA counties were on pace to hit yellow some time in April.  Cases were falling by 50% every two weeks.  If we had kept it up, statewide cases would be at about 300 right now, and every county would be in yellow.
> 
> That’s not what we did.   In early March, we decided that opening restaurants was more important than low case counts or in person school.  As a result, our progress froze and we’ve been hovering at 2-3K cases per day.
> 
> But don’t say it is impossible to drive case counts down. * We did it for a good two months before we decided that saving people's livelihoods was just as important *


I have a hard time understanding how someone can easily cast aside the health and welfare of an entire group of people.  We can walk and chew gum.  Is 2-3K cases a day a load that the healthcare system can't tolerate?  How many asymptomatic cases are a percentage of 2-3K a day?  

I'm not really looking for a response from you, we see this through different lenses.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fauci seems confused despite Guthrie trying to help him out but he seems to suggest a vaccinated or unvaccinated adult can walk home without a mask, but a child can't, despite the child being at lower risk than the unvaccinated adult and COVID only very rarely seriously impacts them
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387365207387824129


That was the most infuriating interview to watch!  

Further cements my belief that Faucci has an agenda or is now starving for attention like a Khardashian.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 28, 2021)

So everyone at that speech has been vaccinated. Why exactly are they all wearing masks?

Shouldn't the message be once vaccinated all is good?

And yet you have a roomful of people all vaccinated wearing masks.


----------



## espola (Apr 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So everyone at that speech has been vaccinated. Why exactly are they all wearing masks?
> 
> Shouldn't the message be once vaccinated all is good?
> 
> And yet you have a roomful of people all vaccinated wearing masks.


Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


You might be on his ignore list. I have a few on mine so I don't see their comments anymore!


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 28, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> You might be on his ignore list. I have a few on mine so I don't see their comments anymore!


There has only been one person on my ignore list and that was EOTL. I can deal with disagreement on a forum. I get tired of assholes.


----------



## crush (Apr 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


Have you enrolled in Hunter's class this fall?


----------



## espola (Apr 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> There has only been one person on my ignore list and that was EOTL. I can deal with disagreement on a forum. I get tired of assholes.


Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


----------



## crush (Apr 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> There has only been one person on my ignore list and that was EOTL. I can deal with disagreement on a forum. I get tired of assholes.


EOTL is Espola or Espola is EOTL.  He was also Messy and a few others.  Divider of the country is his purpose.  You see, when these losers lose and  losers always lose, they do what all losers do.  See meme pic for Espoal and his 6 other avatars.  Big baby!!!


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 29, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


Did you bother to look at the underlying data in the link I posted? 

You may not like the author and apparently the press doesn't either. But I notice none of the criticism of him related to the actual studies he referred to. He didn't didn't do the studies on mask effectiveness. He posted the results of those mask studies. The main thrust of his own study/theory was related to what he thought were the bad effects of masks. I didn't talk about those. 

So if you go back and look at that article when he talks about masks and their effectiveness, he provides footnotes (links) to the actual studies. 

You didn't bother looking at those. Nor for that matter did the links that had criticism of the author itself. 

It is a lazy way to disagree with someone. Find something about the person you don't like and focus on that. That then provides the excuse to ignore the data he talks about that comes from other sources.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 29, 2021)

Funny how this works...or not. 









						Teachers Unions Increased Donations to Democrats When Congress Debated Reopening Schools
					

Parents get another reason to keep their children in the private or charter schools they chose after the unions kept public schools closed for months.




					legalinsurrection.com


----------



## espola (Apr 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Did you bother to look at the underlying data in the link I posted?
> 
> You may not like the author and apparently the press doesn't either. But I notice none of the criticism of him related to the actual studies he referred to. He didn't didn't do the studies on mask effectiveness. He posted the results of those mask studies. The main thrust of his own study/theory was related to what he thought were the bad effects of masks. I didn't talk about those.
> 
> ...


Lazy?  I posted quotes from and links to several articles that showed the shortcomings of von Numbnuts' ramblings.  In addition to a devastatingly complete contradiction of his opinion was disclosure of his dishonesty about his credentials and the weakness of the Medical Hypotheses journal itself - anything can be published there as long as it has the appearance of a proper scientific article.  His description of "the bad effects of masks" contains no supporting evidence other than his own speculation.

Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Funny how this works...or not.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You should post that in the UNIONS thread!


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 29, 2021)

espola said:


> Lazy?  I posted quotes from and links to several articles that showed the shortcomings of von Numbnuts' ramblings.  In addition to a devastatingly complete contradiction of his opinion was disclosure of his dishonesty about his credentials and the weakness of the Medical Hypotheses journal itself - anything can be published there as long as it has the appearance of a proper scientific article.  His description of "the bad effects of masks" contains no supporting evidence other than his own speculation.
> 
> Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


You have this from the WHO from December https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-in-the-community-during-home-care-and-in-healthcare-settings-in-the-context-of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak

On page 4 you get this tidbit:

Evidence on the use of mask in health care settings Systematic reviews have reported that the use of N95/P2 respirators compared with the use of medical masks (see mask definitions, above) *is not associated with statistically significant differences for the outcomes of health workers acquiring clinical respiratory illness, influenza-like illness*

Then you have this from the EU version of the CDC.

What did they say?

"The role of face masks in the control and prevention of COVID-19 remains an issue of debate. Prior to COVID-19, most studies assessing the effectiveness of face masks as a protective measure in the community came from studies on influenza, *which provided little evidence to support their use."*

"Evidence for the effectiveness of non-medical face masks, face shields/visors and respirators in the community *is scarce and of very low certainty.* Additional high-quality studies are needed to assess the relevance of the use of medical face masks in the COVID-19 pandemic."









						Considerations for the use of face masks in the community in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern
					

This document provides an update to and complements the ECDC technical report on “Using face masks in the community: first update - Effectiveness in reducing transmission of COVID-19” published on 15 February 2021.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu


----------



## espola (Apr 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You have this from the WHO from December https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-in-the-community-during-home-care-and-in-healthcare-settings-in-the-context-of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak
> 
> On page 4 you get this tidbit:
> 
> ...


You can pick out sentences here and there in those articles, but the overall thrust of both is to support the use of masks by the general population since that has been shown to slow the spread of the disease.

Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


----------



## crush (Apr 29, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Apr 29, 2021)

happy9 said:


> *I have a hard time understanding how someone can easily cast aside the health and welfare of an entire group of people.*  We can walk and chew gum.  Is 2-3K cases a day a load that the healthcare system can't tolerate?  How many asymptomatic cases are a percentage of 2-3K a day?
> 
> I'm not really looking for a response from you, we see this through different lenses.


You realize that this phrase applies in both directions?

You wonder how I can care so little about bar owners, waitresses, and hotel maids.

I wonder how you can care so little about the elderly, the overweight, and the immunocompromised.

I just hope enough of us get the vaccine that it all becomes moot.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You realize that this phrase applies in both directions?
> 
> You wonder how I can care so little about bar owners, waitresses, and hotel maids.
> 
> ...


Key difference being, choice. 
Bar Owners, Waitresses and Hotel Maids didn’t have a choice about loosing their income.  That was forced upon them to protect a small part of the population.

That small part of the population, the Elderly, Overweight (definitely a self treatable condition) and the Immunocompromised all could have chosen to stay at home, have the community help support their needs and/or protect themselves should they need to leave their protected spaces.  

Saved the Tax Payers TRILLIONS of dollars.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 29, 2021)

espola said:


> You can pick out sentences here and there in those articles, but the overall thrust of both is to support the use of masks by the general population since that has been shown to slow the spread of the disease.
> 
> Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


I agree they still want people to wear masks. Both recommend. 

But at the same time they also say well there are no studies that show they actually work. 

If you are going to make recommendations, it should be based on data/science. And yet they cannot at this time point to studies showing this. Which is why they both state more research needs to be done. 

If masks worked, they would be pointing to the various studies supporting their suggestion people wear masks. 

Prior to covid there however has been decades of studies related to masks and another similar virus (the flu). And they found that masks didn't work.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 29, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you completed your assignment of writing a description of how vaccines work?


I gave you a variety of links a few days ago as to why there is no reason to be wearing masks when vaccinated. 









						CDC: Evidence suggests fully vaccinated people do not transmit COVID-19
					

More data is emerging about how effective COVID-19 vaccines are at making sure people do not get sick and reducing the chances they get others sick.




					www.kxan.com
				




_But the most important part of the recent CDC findings is that vaccinated people are very unlikely to suffer _asymptomatic_ SARS-CoV-2 infections. Participants in the study who were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines were 90% less likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2. Of infections that did occur, only 10.7 percent were asymptomatic. Taken together, this means vaccinated people are highly unlikely to transmit the virus _when they are not suffering symptoms. 









						It's official: Vaccinated people don't spread COVID-19
					

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky this week declared that "vaccinated people do not carry the virus."




					fortune.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 29, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> That small part of the population, the Elderly, Overweight (definitely a self treatable condition) and the Immunocompromised all could have chosen to stay at home, have the community help support their needs and/or protect themselves should they need to leave their protected spaces.


THIS. 

That was the logical option from the beginning. We failed to follow logic.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 29, 2021)

Single pill cure for COVID-19 could be available this year
					

Drugmaker Pfizer is currently testing a single pill cure for COVID-19, and if all goes well, the drug could be available this year.




					www.wate.com


----------



## crush (Apr 29, 2021)

Meanwhile over at The Hall of Justice...... lol!!! Wow, I didnt know Rudy got rolled up on the other day.  By a show of hands, how many of you think Rudy will turn on Mr. T?  This guy thinks Rudy will flip & snitch on t, what say you?  Also, HB will be teaching a class on "fake news" in the Fall and Espola will be reporting back what he has learned from Professor Hunter.


----------



## espola (Apr 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I gave you a variety of links a few days ago as to why there is no reason to be wearing masks when vaccinated.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"No reason"?  Both of those articles admit that vaccinated people can still catch and spread the disease.  Did someone tell you that they didn't?

And neither article describes how a vaccine works.  Perhaps if you understood that (and you have presented no evidence that you do) you wouldn't be making all these errors.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 29, 2021)

*"Cuomo Aides Spent Months Hiding Nursing Home Death Toll Aides to the New York governor, Andrew M. Cuomo, repeatedly prevented state health officials from releasing the number of nursing home deaths in the pandemic.*
The effort by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's office to obscure the pandemic death toll in New York nursing homes was far greater than previously known, with aides repeatedly overruling state health officials over a span of at least five months, according to interviews and newly unearthed documents.

Mr. Cuomo's most senior aides engaged in a sustained effort to prevent the state's own health officials, including the commissioner, Howard Zucker, from releasing the true death toll to the public or sharing it with state lawmakers, these interviews and documents showed."



			https://archive.is/PGtT6
		


Then you have this. 

"New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is having a hard time holding his tongue.
The embattled governor lashed out Thursday, *arguing it's not fair* that the multiple women accusing him of sexual harassment have shared their stories publicly.

"What has happened is, the complainants have continued to go to the press and make their complaint in the press," Cuomo said during an appearance in Buffalo. "And I have not been able to respond. That's not fair and it's not right."









						Cuomo claims ‘it’s not fair’ accusers have gone public with sexual harassment accusations
					

ALBANY, N.Y. — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is having a hard time holding his tongue. The embattled governor lashed out Thursday, arguing it’s “not fair” that the multiple women accusing him of sexual harassment have shared their stories publicly. “What has happened is, the complainants have...




					news.yahoo.com
				




So you have a guy that ordered records to be hidden from the public/press regarding nursing home deaths AND been accused now of sexual harassment from 9 women (most if not all who worked for him)...and yet he is still in office. By the way arguing it isn't fair? This is a guy that when other politicians had women issues, he immediately believed the women and called for their resignations. Suddenly he has a more "nuanced" view of women coming forward. 

The press hasn't really pushed the issue with flood the zone coverage, and the usual "defenders" of women remain rather quiet. If he were a Repub he likely would have been forced to resign by now because the coverage/outrage would have been rather different. 

So I put this in the bad news thread. What would it actually take to remove this guy?

These are the people we vote for. Cuomo? Hey your dad was Gov once? Yep based on that we should vote for you. We do it all the time. Like some politician and then later when one of their kids gets old enough suddenly we vote based on that last name. Kennedy, Bush, Brown...and the list goes on.


----------



## espola (Apr 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I agree they still want people to wear masks. Both recommend.
> 
> But at the same time they also say well there are no studies that show they actually work.
> 
> ...


They both include references to studies that support wearing masks n order to reduce the spread of the disease.  

Did someone tell you that they don't, so you feel no need to actually read them yourself?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 29, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Key difference being, choice.
> Bar Owners, Waitresses and Hotel Maids didn’t have a choice about loosing their income.  That was forced upon them to protect a small part of the population.
> 
> That small part of the population, the Elderly, Overweight (definitely a self treatable condition) and the Immunocompromised all could have chosen to stay at home, have the community help support their needs and/or protect themselves should they need to leave their protected spaces.
> ...


You really think the people dying in this pandemic were all out partying?  The octogenarians snuck out of the rest home to go clubbing?

It works more like this:  Susan gets covid at Hound’s bar.  Susan’s boyfriend Kevin gets covid from Susan.   Kevin gives covid to his roommates.  One of Kevin’s roommates, Robert, is a janitor at Oak View Retirement Home.   Robert goes room to room, carrying out the trash and vacuuming.  Now 15 seniors at Oak View have covid.  Three days later Robert’s test comes back positive and Oak View locks down.  They get the outbreak under control, but only after 45 infections and 4 deaths.

None of the 4 had any “choice” in the matter.


----------



## crush (Apr 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You really think the people dying in this pandemic were all out partying?  The octogenarians snuck out of the rest home to go clubbing?
> 
> It works more like this:  Susan gets covid at Hound’s bar.  Susan’s boyfriend Kevin gets covid from Susan.   Kevin gives covid to his roommates.  One of Kevin’s roommates, Robert, is a janitor at Oak View Retirement Home.   Robert goes room to room, carrying out the trash and vacuuming.  Now 15 seniors at Oak View have covid.  Three days later Robert’s test comes back positive and Oak View locks down.  They get the outbreak under control, but only after 45 infections and 4 deaths.
> 
> None of the 4 had any “choice” in the matter.


Dad4 + Espola= Espola

This is the biggest bullshit tracing lie ever btw.  Did you come up with this BS from one of your contact tracing pals or out of your little brain?  BTW, it was the AC Tech Guy that brought Rona to Hound's Bar & Grill.  He snuck in from the back because Hound's Bar has super strict guidelines at the front door.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 29, 2021)

Does Hound really have a bar? If so, I can see why his stance is so strongly where it is.


----------



## crush (Apr 29, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Does Hound really have a bar? If so, I can see why his stance is so strongly where it is.


I have a bet on with Hound for drinks if my kids team beats his kids team.  Dad was making up a scenario in his brain and made up Hound's Bar.  I added, "& Grill" because it sounds better.  Look what I found on Google search....lol


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 29, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Does Hound really have a bar? If so, I can see why his stance is so strongly where it is.


I run a biz that was severely affected by the virus. So when people run around and say shut your biz, lose everything, I say screw that. 

When they try to shut schools I get more grumpy. Thankfully my kids avoid public school and didn't have to deal with those antics.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You realize that this phrase applies in both directions?
> 
> You wonder how I can care so little about bar owners, waitresses, and hotel maids.
> 
> ...


It won't if you care about cases and want zero deaths.  Even if we control it in the US, there's still lots of seeding that can go on from the rest of the world which won't be finished vaccinating until at least 2023.  Then there was a recent Vox video piece (thought about you) during it which points out that if the source was an animal transfer (as opposed to a lab escape/engineering) then there's also a redseed vector there for more variants.


----------



## crush (Apr 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I run a biz that was severely affected by the virus. So when people run around and say shut your biz, lose everything, I say screw that.
> 
> When they try to shut schools I get more grumpy. Thankfully my kids avoid public school and didn't have to deal with those antics.


Sorry to hear that bro.  I was tempted with a boiler room type of job selling loans over the phone but I just can;t do it.  The drive to LA would kill me Hound.  My old college friend is killing it doing loans in some high rise office building downtown LA.  Making $240,000 a year he says but he just started 90 days ago so he's only on pace for two-forty.  Dude leaves way South OC at 4am up to LA and leaves LA at 4pm to come home.  No virtual sales job.  Nope, cheeks in the seat 5 days a week.  Only for producers.  He get's home at 6pm.  14 man hours a day x 5= 70 hours a week.  He said to make the big bucks you got to be committed.  He even works some weekends, so two jobs basically.  I heard his shit for 30 minutes and then told him he really has two jobs and on pace to make $120,000 each.  He got pissed off.  I told him to add it up and stop bragging and just keep it to yourself because it sounds like hell on earth.  He looks horrible but told me he wants to retire in three years, not 6 and that is why he's working so hard.  I'm not trying to be mean but he's at least 100 pounds over weight.  I know he pulls into Jack in the box every morning on his way into LA.  Then of course he hits Micky Dees on the way home.  Comes home to an empty house ((wife left him years ago)) and does the same shit the next day and over and over.  This guy, who I will call Hal, is one lonely dude.  I love him to death but he's a mess.  He took his vaccine shots


----------



## Kicker4Life (Apr 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You really think the people dying in this pandemic were all out partying?  The octogenarians snuck out of the rest home to go clubbing?
> 
> It works more like this:  Susan gets covid at Hound’s bar.  Susan’s boyfriend Kevin gets covid from Susan.   Kevin gives covid to his roommates.  One of Kevin’s roommates, Robert, is a janitor at Oak View Retirement Home.   Robert goes room to room, carrying out the trash and vacuuming.  Now 15 seniors at Oak View have covid.  Three days later Robert’s test comes back positive and Oak View locks down.  They get the outbreak under control, but only after 45 infections and 4 deaths.
> 
> None of the 4 had any “choice” in the matter.


You’re also assuming that Oak View doesn’t put certain policies in place to protect its Vulnerable clients.  If Robert doesn’t like those policies, Robert can make a choice. 

We aren’t going to change each other’s minds here.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It won't if you care about cases and want zero deaths.  Even if we control it in the US, there's still lots of seeding that can go on from the rest of the world which won't be finished vaccinating until at least 2023.  Then there was a recent Vox video piece (thought about you) during it which points out that if the source was an animal transfer (as opposed to a lab escape/engineering) then there's also a redseed vector there for more variants.


Reseeding doesn't matter if you have enough immunity.  The new clusters fizzle out.

The exception would be if the new seed happens to be resistant to your vaccine.   One more reason to help fund international vaccinations.


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I run a biz that was severely affected by the virus. So when people run around and say shut your biz, lose everything, I say screw that.
> 
> When they try to shut schools I get more grumpy. Thankfully my kids avoid public school and didn't have to deal with those antics.


Totally understand that.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 29, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Reseeding doesn't matter if you have enough immunity.  The new clusters fizzle out.
> 
> The exception would be if the new seed happens to be resistant to your vaccine.   One more reason to help fund international vaccinations.


The latter.  Life tries to survive and 2 years is a really long time considering how much its mutated already.

It's also not just a money issue but a size issue, given the billions in India and China.  The Chinese vaccine also doesn't work so well which adds to the problem.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The latter.  Life tries to survive and 2 years is a really long time considering how much its mutated already.
> 
> It's also not just a money issue but a size issue, given the billions in India and China.  The Chinese vaccine also doesn't work so well which adds to the problem.


Time is the wrong way to look at mutations.  Don’t try to measure it in mutations per day.   A 20 year old disease with very few hosts will also have had very few chances to mutate. (ebola)  A 1 year old disease with a billion hosts will have had a billion chances to mutate. (covid)

Measure it in mutations per total person infected.  So, how many more people will be infected before we can get vaccine everywhere?  And how many people have been infected so far?  

By that measure, the world has had maybe 1 billion people infected and 2 billion people live in countries willing to manage it.  Which leaves 5 billion people to get vaccinated, get sick, or get lucky.  If you take a swag of 2 billion hosts, 2 billion vaccinated, and 1 billion lucky, then we’ve already seen perhaps 1/3 of the total mutations which will develop.  (because we’ve seen 1/3 of the cases)


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Time is the wrong way to look at mutations.  Don’t try to measure it in mutations per day.   A 20 year old disease with very few hosts will also have had very few chances to mutate. (ebola)  A 1 year old disease with a billion hosts will have had a billion chances to mutate. (covid)
> 
> Measure it in mutations per total person infected.  So, how many more people will be infected before we can get vaccine everywhere?  And how many people have been infected so far?
> 
> By that measure, the world has had maybe 1 billion people infected and 2 billion people live in countries willing to manage it.  Which leaves 5 billion people to get vaccinated, get sick, or get lucky.  If you take a swag of 2 billion hosts, 2 billion vaccinated, and 1 billion lucky, then we’ve already seen perhaps 1/3 of the total mutations which will develop.  (because we’ve seen 1/3 of the cases)


“2 billion people live in countries willing to manage it”...euphemism for China and some of the other mainland Asian countries+ Australia and New Zealand and Taiwan?  The issue with China is their vaccine doesn’t work very well...from that data in Chile maybe not at all.

I agree you have to look at number of infections. But with vaccinations you need to look at time because it allows those infections to occur.  In reality the world won’t be finished vaccinating until 2023 at the earliest which gives people a lot of time to get infected. I saw a regression study the other day but now can’t find it but it was pretty neat...you would have appreciated the math...it argued given the mutation curves (since at least 8 variants were already at play in January 2020) case 1 of covid had to have taken place in winter 2018-2019. again purely a math model and we all know how those have worked out.

as you pointed out even with a million doses per day it would take India years to fully vaccinate.


----------



## crush (Apr 30, 2021)

Crush is selling high quality air.  PM me and I'll make deal with you


----------



## crush (Apr 30, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

Don't agree with everything in the article, but it makes some good points, arguing that lockdowns-political correctness-current adverse risk child rearing is all connected with a desire for safety.  Some parts made me smile because it reminds me of someone we all know and love.









						Why lockdown has become a lifestyle
					

The culture of fear has made a lifetime of quarantine look attractive.




					www.spiked-online.com


----------



## dad4 (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> “2 billion people live in countries willing to manage it”...euphemism for China and some of the other mainland Asian countries+ Australia and New Zealand and Taiwan?  The issue with China is their vaccine doesn’t work very well...from that data in Chile maybe not at all.
> 
> I agree you have to look at number of infections. But with vaccinations you need to look at time because it allows those infections to occur.  In reality the world won’t be finished vaccinating until 2023 at the earliest which gives people a lot of time to get infected. I saw a regression study the other day but now can’t find it but it was pretty neat...you would have appreciated the math...it argued given the mutation curves (since at least 8 variants were already at play in January 2020) case 1 of covid had to have taken place in winter 2018-2019. again purely a math model and we all know how those have worked out.
> 
> as you pointed out even with a million doses per day it would take India years to fully vaccinate.


I would think Serum Institute of India can produce far more than a million doses per day.

But yes, the problem is scale.  Doing something 8 billion times will be slow.  Fortunately, we have the option of building capacity over the next year.  I hope we are doing it already.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

Interesting what's happening in India shouldn't be happening.  Seroprevalence in some areas was 50%.   Should be topping out.  This guy things there's natural immunity breakthrough (i.e., reinfection) but he's optimistic vaccine breakthroughs are low.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interesting what's happening in India shouldn't be happening.  Seroprevalence in some areas was 50%.   Should be topping out.  This guy things there's natural immunity breakthrough (i.e., reinfection) but he's optimistic vaccine breakthroughs are low.


Interesting too myocarditis is being seen as an issue mostly with under 30 men getting vaccinated. May wind up they need to do the j&j and az vaccines but women the mRNA due to blood clots


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The downturn really coincided with the Johnson and Johnson halt. It’s not the sole cause because the red states are seeing a bigger downturn than the blue states. But it was a stunning own goal that didn’t help things now that we are hitting vaccine reluctance. It doesn’t help either that the blood clots hit otherwise healthy younger women. From a risk analysis point of view they have less of a danger with covid and there’s a bit of a free rider problem (if everyone   else gets vaccinated I’ll be fine) so they might figure why risk myself taking an experimental drug. Polio on the other hand struck down otherwise healthy people so everyone was at risk even if the early shots carried a risk themselves.  A person under 40 has a less than .1% chance of dying from covid. A person under 40 though could have been crippled by polio ruining their life (which for some is worse than death)


Just a brutally bad decision. Issue an advisory as England did and move on. April 13th - the peak of the 7-day average, it was paused. All downhill from there.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I take it you keep posting this because you want to undermine anything else we hear from epidemiologists.


I am not sure how to take this. So, if I criticize Trump, or any politician, I am undermining all politicians? This IS personal - for Osterholm. He's a guy that Cuomo attempted to use for credibility in his policymaking and he has our current President's ear. He deserves some scrutiny. If the "eggheads" who are doing good work don't call out the ones getting all the attention with wildly incorrect predictions, someone has to do it. Also, it's not over. He was the one who said 6-14 weeks, not me. Maybe that was his strategy though. If he's right, he's amazing, if he's wrong, so much time has gone by no one has the attention span to follow through. My guess is the media generally loves him so few will remind everyone of this very bad miss.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s just basic politeness.  It you see someone with a mask, you know that they, in their view, consider it appropriate.  So you put yours on as you pass.
> 
> It doesn’t really matter whose risk assessment is most accurate.


I carry mine when outside. I only put it on if I can't get far enough (at least 6 feet) away from someone who is wearing a mask or I happen to be passing near a crowd, which is almost never. I won't wear a mask when outside and no one is near me or when in my car by myself. I have enough neuroses. I don't need another.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 30, 2021)

So I am sitting here in a zoom meeting with the chief med officer of a pub traded company right now. 

Regarding rmna vaccines and if covid drifts. 

-According to him if a new variant comes out with the current rmna vaccines it would only take roughly 3 months to get a new vaccine out. Essentially the foundation is there and the mechanism to make a variation of the vaccine that uses rmna is rather easy. 

-He indicates boosters are probably something that is going to be part of life going forward.

-About 140 million doses moderna/phizer out. They have found very very few issues so far. Amazingly small amounts of issues. IE nothing is popping up out of the ordinary.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 30, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> My guess is the media generally loves him so few will remind everyone of this very bad miss.


The problem is the media loves the body count graphic. They like the scary headline..ie 6-14 weeks out we are in trouble. 

The rarely ever circle around to see what happened regarding these various pronouncements.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 30, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So I am sitting here in a zoom meeting with the chief med officer of a pub traded company right now.
> 
> Regarding rmna vaccines and if covid drifts.
> 
> ...


This deserves to be in the "Good News Thread".


----------



## dad4 (Apr 30, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I am not sure how to take this. So, if I criticize Trump, or any politician, I am undermining all politicians? This IS personal - for Osterholm. He's a guy that Cuomo attempted to use for credibility in his policymaking and he has our current President's ear. He deserves some scrutiny. If the "eggheads" who are doing good work don't call out the ones getting all the attention with wildly incorrect predictions, someone has to do it. Also, it's not over. He was the one who said 6-14 weeks, not me. Maybe that was his strategy though. If he's right, he's amazing, if he's wrong, so much time has gone by no one has the attention span to follow through. My guess is the media generally loves him so few will remind everyone of this very bad miss.


It was a bad prediction, and Osterholm lost credibility by making it.  Journalists may not remember it, but researchers will.  People within the academic community have memories far longer than 6-14 weeks.    

If his goal is to be a talking head, he may be ok.  If his goal is to actually be an epidemiologist, this will hurt.  

I care more about how we all react to what we do and don’t know about disease.  We know enough to be killing this thing by now.  Basic small things like masks indoors and when near other people.  Like avoiding bars and restaurants if you are not vaccinated.  

We know what we need to do.  Focusing on a narrative of “Osterholm made a bad prediction” does not help us get there.


----------



## watfly (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You really think the people dying in this pandemic were all out partying?  The octogenarians snuck out of the rest home to go clubbing?


You'd be surprised   









						Booze, Sex & STDs in Senior Living Facilities
					

Seniors. They may be living in an assisted living or residential care community, but that doesn't mean their fun times are over and they're limited to




					seniorhousingnews.com


----------



## dad4 (Apr 30, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem is the media loves the body count graphic. They like the scary headline..ie 6-14 weeks out we are in trouble.
> 
> The rarely ever circle around to see what happened regarding these various pronouncements.


The media care about the body count, mostly because it’s so large.  Covid has killed over three million people around the world in the last year.  That’s about 8 times as many as malaria.  It isn’t unimportant.

There is no need for the 6-14 week scare prediction though.  The real problem is bad enough without exaggerating it to grab our attention.  He could have said “We will have another one or two hundred thousand extra deaths if we relax our guard before we are vaccinated.  That phrasing is perfectly accurate.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It was a bad prediction, and Osterholm lost credibility by making it.  Journalists may not remember it, but researchers will.  People within the academic community have memories far longer than 6-14 weeks.
> 
> If his goal is to be a talking head, he may be ok.  If his goal is to actually be an epidemiologist, this will hurt.
> 
> ...


I believe everyone's masking behavior is pretty much "baked-in". All these studies you refer to won't move the needle in the behavior of the general public IMO. If leadership and what the media promotes matters at all, it's important to identify poor examples and make sure we don't make the same mistakes. Also, by far, the thing most hindering the US drive to herd immunity was the pause on J&J. Focus should be on mitigating that damage.

Again, I believe you don't fully comprehend the diversity of our culture and how difficult it is to even get decent information in certain areas that would even have the chance to drive behavior changes. You heard what KM2 said about the areas where we have migrant farmworkers. That's just one example. There's no control unless you are able to do what Australia did at the beginning. You see how crazy they go in Australia when they find one case - one case. How are we going to manage that here? There are WAY too many cases everywhere in the US. You keep saying people can change their behavior, but behavior IS culture. Nothing about our national "salad" culture promotes doing things as one - especially behavior changes like you are suggesting where many people just don't see the benefit you see or the risk you see.

The one study I'd like to see is the one where the desire to enforce the behavior changes you promote is correlated to a person's ability to attend work, have their food, etc. delivered.


----------



## watfly (Apr 30, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I believe everyone's masking behavior is pretty much "baked-in". All these studies you refer to won't move the needle in the behavior of the general public IMO.


Masks may have some effectiveness depending on the situation and type of mask;  however, mask mandates clearly don't work.



kickingandscreaming said:


> Also, by far, the thing most hindering the US drive to herd immunity was the pause on J&J. Focus should be on mitigating that damage.


By far?  I disagree.  I think Biden's optics of continuing to wear a mask outside and panicking when he can't find a mask is undermining the message that vaccines are effective, at least as much as the J&J pause.



			Vaccinated Biden panics after losing mask at outdoor Georgia rally


----------



## dad4 (Apr 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> Masks may have some effectiveness depending on the situation and type of mask;  however, mask mandates clearly don't work.
> 
> 
> By far?  I disagree.  I think Biden's optics of continuing to wear a mask outside and panicking when he can't find a mask is undermining the message that vaccines are effective, at least as much as the J&J pause.
> ...


I take Biden’s mask to be more about politeness.  It would be impolite to ask others to do something he is not willing to do himself.  He is asking us to wear masks, therefore he wears one.  

I suspect he will lose the mask when cases are low enough and vax rates are high enough that he isn’t asking others to wear one.  

But it isn’t time yet.  We still have almost 1000 deaths a day and less than 1/2 of people have had even their first shot.  Wait and see if he still has a mask once deaths are below 10 per day and second shots are over 70%.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Apr 30, 2021)

*Breathing Physiology*
Breathing is one of the most important physiological functions to sustain life and health. Human body requires a continuous and adequate oxygen (O2) supply to all organs and cells for normal function and survival. Breathing is also an essential process for removing metabolic byproducts [carbon dioxide (CO2)] occurring during cell respiration [12], [13]. It is well established that acute significant deficit in O2 (hypoxemia) and increased levels of CO2 (hypercapnia) even for few minutes can be severely harmful and lethal, while chronic hypoxemia and hypercapnia cause health deterioration, exacerbation of existing conditions, morbidity and ultimately mortality [11], [20], [21], [22]. Emergency medicine demonstrates that 5–6 min of severe hypoxemia during cardiac arrest will cause brain death with extremely poor survival rates [20], [21], [22], [23]. On the other hand, chronic mild or moderate hypoxemia and hypercapnia such as from wearing facemasks resulting in shifting to higher contribution of anaerobic energy metabolism, decrease in pH levels and increase in cells and blood acidity, toxicity, oxidative stress, chronic inflammation, immunosuppression and health deterioration [24], [11], [12], [13].

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7680614/


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> I think Biden's optics of continuing to wear a mask outside and panicking when he can't find a mask is undermining the message that vaccines are effective, at least as much as the J&J pause.


Yes. Bad optics. 

The visual should be...I am vaccinated. No need for a mask. Get vaccinated and live free as well.


----------



## espola (Apr 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> Masks may have some effectiveness depending on the situation and type of mask;  however, mask mandates clearly don't work.
> 
> 
> By far?  I disagree.  I think Biden's optics of continuing to wear a mask outside and panicking when he can't find a mask is undermining the message that vaccines are effective, at least as much as the J&J pause.
> ...


You apparently have a very low threshold for "panic".


----------



## watfly (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I take Biden’s mask to be more about politeness.  It would be impolite to ask others to do something he is not willing to do himself.  He is asking us to wear masks, therefore he wears one.


I'm glad you appreciate his politeness.  You know what I'd appreciate?  LEADERSHIP, that's what I'd appreciate.

So troubling that we've moved from self reliance, individual innovation and addressing obstacles head on, to hiding and relying on the government to take care of us.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

Apparently out and out racism......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1388198649864364037


----------



## espola (Apr 30, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yes. Bad optics.
> 
> The visual should be...I am vaccinated. No need for a mask. Get vaccinated and live free as well.
> 
> View attachment 10673


Have you figured out how vaccines work yet?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

Argentina is the perfect example of lockdown fatigue.  Some of the longest, strictist lockdowns, very rigorous mask mandate.  When they eased, they didn't go full Florida/Sweden.  But as everywhere, eventually they had to ease or the country would collapse.  They got this....








						Argentina COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Argentina Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

Raise your hand if you really thought, after all this, 100 days meant 100 days?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1388215967193370629


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

South Dakota suing the admin for cancelling the fireworks show.  You'll recall last year Trump went to the show despite COVID.  Biden admin is citing COVID (as well as tribal land concerns and environment) despite the ceremony being outdoor.


----------



## Desert Hound (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> South Dakota suing the admin for cancelling the fireworks show.  You'll recall last year Trump went to the show despite COVID.  Biden admin is citing COVID (as well as tribal land concerns and environment) despite the ceremony being outdoor.


Just reclassify as a BLM protest. Then not only will you get crowds there, but you will get the Dem politicians showing up for the celebration.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Argentina is the perfect example of lockdown fatigue.  Some of the longest, strictist lockdowns, very rigorous mask mandate.  When they eased, they didn't go full Florida/Sweden.  But as everywhere, eventually they had to ease or the country would collapse.  They got this....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If I follow your point, Argentina had strong restrictions and relatively low deaths.  Then, they relaxed the restrictions and got higher death rates.

You’ll understand if I think this proves a different point than you think it proves.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If I follow your point, Argentina had strong restrictions and relatively low deaths.  Then, they relaxed the restrictions and got higher death rates.
> 
> You’ll understand if I think this proves a different point than you think it proves.


They had very strong restrictions for the longest time...some of the toughest in the world.  When they relaxed, they didn't go full Sweden/Florida.   NO country has been able to sustain a lockdown 15 months.  Argentina got the closest.  In the end, too much fatigue sets in.  My point is rather than the Los Angeles/Argentina approach, a system which targets escalations might have served better (which BTW is closer to the Germany case you lockdowners touted early on).


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They had very strong restrictions for the longest time...some of the toughest in the world.  When they relaxed, they didn't go full Sweden/Florida.   NO country has been able to sustain a lockdown 15 months.  Argentina got the closest.  In the end, too much fatigue sets in.  My point is rather than the Los Angeles/Argentina approach, a system which targets escalations might have served better (which BTW is closer to the Germany case you lockdowners touted early on).


To reiterate, no country....not even China/Australia/New Zealand has had a 15 month lockdown.  Peru almost collapsed after 6.  What Australia/NZ did is very different....they shut down seeding events and use the hammer any time there's 1 case.  Shutting down seeding events means a very tight control on the border.  It took Biden until today to shut down airtraffic to India and you can still come in from India (you just have to fly to a hub that still has connecting flights....it's not a total travel ban).


----------



## dad4 (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> South Dakota suing the admin for cancelling the fireworks show.  You'll recall last year Trump went to the show despite COVID.  Biden admin is citing COVID (as well as tribal land concerns and environment) despite the ceremony being outdoor.


Where does everyone eat dinner before the show?   When they need to pee, do they go inside?  Is there a line?  Is there a line at the concession stand?  How many people in the line wear masks, and how many insist it is their right not to?

When they say outside is safe, they are talking about hanging out with a couple of friends at the beach.  They don’t mean thousands of people at a fireworks show.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

At least 1 of the experts believes UK moving from pandemic to endemic with periodic season outbreaks expected for some seasons to come. 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-could-be-past-the-pandemic-expert-says-as-data-estimates-one-in-40-000-symptomatic-cases-12291109


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Where does everyone eat dinner before the show?   When they need to pee, do they go inside?  Is there a line?  Is there a line at the concession stand?  How many people in the line wear masks, and how many insist it is their right not to?
> 
> When they say outside is safe, they are talking about hanging out with a couple of friends at the beach.  They don’t mean thousands of people at a fireworks show.


They did do it last year, without vaccines.  Hey...do you think maybe that's what it's really all about?  Color me shocked.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Apr 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> Irrational fear othen leads to irrational behavior.


At least one previous president understood that, used it as best he could and left a lasting scar on this country and democracy.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1388211481414615045


----------



## espola (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Where does everyone eat dinner before the show?   When they need to pee, do they go inside?  Is there a line?  Is there a line at the concession stand?  How many people in the line wear masks, and how many insist it is their right not to?
> 
> When they say outside is safe, they are talking about hanging out with a couple of friends at the beach.  They don’t mean thousands of people at a fireworks show.


Mt. Rushmore is unusual.  There is usually no entrance charge, but there is a $10 mandatory parking fee at the memorial site (less for seniors and military).


----------



## espola (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> At least 1 of the experts believes UK moving from pandemic to endemic with periodic season outbreaks expected for some seasons to come.
> 
> https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-could-be-past-the-pandemic-expert-says-as-data-estimates-one-in-40-000-symptomatic-cases-12291109


The words "season" or "seasonal" do not appear anywhere in that article.


----------



## dad4 (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1388211481414615045


Twitter?


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Twitter?


Yeah, I hate twitter too, but is it wrong?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, I hate twitter too, but is it wrong?


You just proved that at least one person on Twitter doesn't like Fauci.

This was not exactly news.


----------



## Grace T. (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You just proved that at least one person on Twitter doesn't like Fauci.
> 
> This was not exactly news.


Again if anything in the tweet is wrong please speak up. Anything?  Bueller?  Bueller?


----------



## Glitterhater (Apr 30, 2021)

Not knocking anyone for using Twitter, (as I've been known to enjoy a tweet or two,) but it goes to show you how easily we are fed information that slants towards what we * already believe. Like that Tweet would never show up in my feed, KWIM?


----------



## dad4 (Apr 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again if anything in the tweet is wrong please speak up. Anything?  Bueller?  Bueller?


What is there to rebut?

He quotes a single data point, then asserts that his one data point proves that Fauci and Biden were wrong.

This is not even the skeleton of a logical argument.  He looked up one data point and made an unsupported conclusion.  That's it.


----------



## watfly (Apr 30, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What is there to rebut?
> 
> He quotes a single data point, then asserts that his one data point proves that Fauci and Biden were wrong.
> 
> This is not even the skeleton of a logical argument.  He looked up one data point and made an unsupported conclusion.  That's it.


Ok, I'll play.  That's 3 data points, deaths, hospitalizations and cases dropped dramatically after the mask mandate was eliminated and Texas was opened 100%.  I'm I missing a data point that's more relevant?  No one is claiming cause and effect, but Biden called the Texas reopening "neanderthal thinking" and Fauci called it "inexplicable" and claimed it would lead to another surge.  They both couldn't have been more wrong,    The exact opposite happened with Covid and the economy has boomed.  Where's our federal leadership?  Fauci needs to go back to AIDS research, he is clueless about Covid (not that anyone really understands it, but he pretends like he does) and if he has ever taken a public policy class he obviously slept through it.


----------



## tenacious (May 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You just proved that at least one person on Twitter doesn't like Fauci.
> 
> This was not exactly news.


The thing is the states like Texas and Florida, that totally ignored Fauci's advice seem to generally have about the same rates of hospitalization and death as everyone else. Except Texas and Florida avoided destroying their economies. 

Fauci was a stead hand through all this crazy year, and I don't doubt for a moment is a good man doing the best that he can in difficult times. But at some point the conversation has to turn to what went wrong, and how could be do better next time.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What is there to rebut?
> 
> He quotes a single data point, then asserts that his one data point proves that Fauci and Biden were wrong.
> 
> This is not even the skeleton of a logical argument.  He looked up one data point and made an unsupported conclusion.  That's it.


Man, I need to get into this epidemiological advice business. Bad predictions for 9% of the US population can be passed off as a single "data point". Good luck ever getting enough data points for a real study. Texas dropping statewide masking requirements didn't move the needle because behavior didn't really change. People didn't suddenly throw away their masks or stop wearing them. Localities decided what was appropriate. What a concept.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> By far?  I disagree.  I think Biden's optics of continuing to wear a mask outside and panicking when he can't find a mask is undermining the message that vaccines are effective, at least as much as the J&J pause.
> 
> 
> 
> Vaccinated Biden panics after losing mask at outdoor Georgia rally


Is Biden's reaction to losing his mask impacting whether people decide to get a vaccine or not? I guess I'm immune to "COVID Theatre" now and assume others are as well. I still imagine that lectern cleaning post from @Desert Hound as a Benny Hill skit with Yakety Sax playing in the background.


----------



## espola (May 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Is Biden's reaction to losing his mask impacting whether people decide to get a vaccine or not? I guess I'm immune to "COVID Theatre" now and assume others are as well. I still imagine that lectern cleaning post from @Desert Hound as a Benny Hill skit with Yakety Sax playing in the background.


Half a million deaths are a joke to you?


----------



## watfly (May 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Is Biden's reaction to losing his mask impacting whether people decide to get a vaccine or not? I guess I'm immune to "COVID Theatre" now and assume others are as well. I still imagine that lectern cleaning post from @Desert Hound as a Benny Hill skit with Yakety Sax playing in the background.


I don't disagree with you and I think a lot of people are immune to "Covid theatre" and I would have taken the J&J vaccine without hesitation, and I suspect you would too.   However, those that wouldn't take the J&J vaccine are likely going to be the same ones that are going to be influenced by "Mask theatre" and the fact you still have to wear a mask even though vaccinated.   There is a population that think "what's the point of getting a vaccination if I still have to wear a mask?  I'll just wait until mask restrictions are lifted and not have to inject myself with something I'm unsure about". If the science shows that the vaccines truly work why disincentivize it by still requiring mask wearing, that's really stupid public policy.  I'm strongly in favor of the vaccine (got my 2nd Moderna this week), it's nothing short of a "medical miracle", but I'm not going to lose sleep if someone else chooses not to get it,


----------



## crush (May 1, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Is Biden's reaction to losing his mask impacting whether people decide to get a vaccine or not? I guess I'm immune to "COVID Theatre" now and assume others are as well. I still imagine that lectern cleaning post from @Desert Hound as a* Benny Hill* skit with Yakety Sax playing in the background.


This person was not from OC, just was chased by CHP FYI!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 1, 2021)

espola said:


> There is nothing the vaccination that inhibits the virus from entering your body or for it to spread from there to others.  The vaccination makes it less likely that the virus will grow well enough in your body to make you ill.


Your immune system does the same thing for the actual virus.  Without an EUA, trials, mask, s-distancing, and  economic ruin.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 1, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you figured out how vaccines work yet?


Have you figured out how your immune system works yet?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 1, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Just reclassify as a BLM protest. Then not only will you get crowds there, but you will get the Dem politicians showing up for the celebration.


 And lotsa fire the way BLM likes it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'm glad you appreciate his politeness.  You know what I'd appreciate?  LEADERSHIP, that's what I'd appreciate.
> 
> So troubling that we've moved from self reliance, individual innovation and addressing obstacles head on, to hiding and relying on the government to take care of us.


Biden is mentally and physically weak.  His handlers prefer it that way.


----------



## Grace T. (May 1, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Your immune system does the same thing for the actual virus.  Without an EUA, trials, mask, s-distancing, and  economic ruin.


India is useful actually for clarifying this. Some areas were over 40% seroprevalence but they still got the current mess.  Some reinfections are happening from what we can tell particularly among the those who had asymptomatic or mild first cases.  A natural infection is roughly the same it seems as the first vaccine shot.  The uk has been studying giving only 1 shot to those who have had covid.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> India is useful actually for clarifying this. Some areas were over 40% seroprevalence but they still got the current mess.  Some reinfections are happening from what we can tell particularly among the those who had asymptomatic or mild first cases.  A natural infection is roughly the same it seems as the first vaccine shot.  The uk has been studying giving only 1 shot to those who have had covid.


Agree the first vaccine shot is not a natural infection.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 1, 2021)

espola said:


> Half a million deaths are a joke to you?


Speaking of Jokes:



Today we're going to check in on how some predictions are going.

Here we go, courtesy of the great Ian Miller (@ianmSC on Twitter).

Let's start with California and Texas. Remember when Gavin Newsom, governor of California, described the decision to drop the Texas mask mandate as "absolutely reckless," and then continued with his own crazy policies of closing even outdoor dining and then had similar or worse results than Texas for seven weeks? I'm sure this was all over the news, right?










Let's shift to Iowa. Remember the _Washington Post_'s headline, "Welcome to Iowa, a State That Doesn't Care If You Live or Die"? Deaths are down 91.4% since then:










This one involves heavily masked Hungary against sparsely masked Sweden. Shouldn't these numbers be reversed?










As usual, no clear pro-Fauci story emerges from the charts -- as it darn well should if all the craziness and sacrifice had been genuinely necessary.

This message has to get out there. My newsletter can accomplish only so much.

A group of experienced and talented documentary filmmakers will be telling the real truth, though -- if we support them.

I've already made a substantial donation, because this cause is urgently necessary.


----------



## Grace T. (May 1, 2021)

Not a great study (same critique as prior CDC study) but......









						Ongoing COVID lockdowns cost countless jobs
					

New York and New Jersey ranked highly in lockdowns, unemployment numbers and in residents leaving the states since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to recent data.




					nypost.com


----------



## Grace T. (May 1, 2021)

Powerful teachers union influenced CDC on school reopenings, emails show
					

The American Federation of Teachers lobbied the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on, and even suggested language for, the federal agency’s school-reopening guidance released in Febr…




					nypost.com


----------



## dad4 (May 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Not a great study (same critique as prior CDC study) but......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"The rankings did not account for things like population density, the close quarters in urban households or use of public transportation, all of which play a role in virus transmission."

This goes well beyond the critique if any CDC study.

They neglected to correct for _any_ of the complicating factors.  As a result, you can't tell the difference between the effect of lockdown, the effect of population density, and any other effect that correlates with being a major urban center.

This makes the study less than useless, and you know it.


----------



## Grace T. (May 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> "The rankings did not account for things like population density, the close quarters in urban households or use of public transportation, all of which play a role in virus transmission."
> 
> This goes well beyond the critique if any CDC study.
> 
> ...


I don’t really think there’s a thing as more worthless.  It sort of is what it is but we actually agree for once. The economics piece of this one is actually slightly more untainted to the extent there can be such a thing. 

As I said with the cdc study, the only way to really control for demographics and variants is to compare like neighboring counties to like neighboring counties that had different restrictions.  There are a handful in Utah, Kentucky, on the Missouri border, and on the Canadian border that could be used.   From the little data I’ve seen it’s not kind to the Npi supporters


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> "The rankings did not account for things like population density, the close quarters in urban households or use of public transportation, all of which play a role in virus transmission."
> 
> This goes well beyond the critique if any CDC study.
> 
> ...




Here we go, courtesy of the great Ian Miller (@ianmSC on Twitter).

Let's start with California and Texas. Remember when Gavin Newsom, governor of California, described the decision to drop the Texas mask mandate as "absolutely reckless," and then continued with his own crazy policies of closing even outdoor dining and then had similar or worse results than Texas for seven weeks? I'm sure this was all over the news, right?












Let's shift to Iowa. Remember the _Washington Post_'s headline, "Welcome to Iowa, a State That Doesn't Care If You Live or Die"? Deaths are down 91.4% since then:












This one involves heavily masked Hungary against sparsely masked Sweden. Shouldn't these numbers be reversed?












As usual, no clear pro-Fauci story emerges from the charts -- as it darn well should if all the craziness and sacrifice had been genuinely necessary.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> "The rankings did not account for things like population density, the close quarters in urban households or use of public transportation, all of which play a role in virus transmission."
> 
> This goes well beyond the critique if any CDC study.
> 
> ...


Speaking of useless


----------



## dad4 (May 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I don’t really think there’s a thing as more worthless.  It sort of is what it is but we actually agree for once. The economics piece of this one is actually slightly more untainted to the extent there can be such a thing.
> 
> As I said with the cdc study, the only way to really control for demographics and variants is to compare like neighboring counties to like neighboring counties that had different restrictions.  There are a handful in Utah, Kentucky, on the Missouri border, and on the Canadian border that could be used.   From the little data I’ve seen it’s not kind to the Npi supporters


Why do you prefer adjacent county studies?  People cross county lines.  The growth rate in county A partially depends on the current case count in county B.  And the growth rate in county B partially depends on current cases in county A.  The main NPI argument is growth rates, and your chosen  type of study explicitly mixes the growth rates.

Double this if the NPI in question is indoor dining.  Residents of county A will travel to county B to work and eat in restaurants.  This mixes your data even more.

It seems a non-adjacent county study, but with similar weather, SES, and demographics, would be preferable.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why do you prefer adjacent county studies?  People cross county lines.  The growth rate in county A partially depends on the current case count in county B.  And the growth rate in county B partially depends on current cases in county A.  The main NPI argument is growth rates, and your chosen  type of study explicitly mixes the growth rates.
> 
> Double this if the NPI in question is indoor dining.  Residents of county A will travel to county B to work and eat in restaurants.  This mixes your data even more.
> 
> It seems a non-adjacent county study, but with similar weather, SES, and demographics, would be preferable.


Q.E.D.


----------



## Grace T. (May 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why do you prefer adjacent county studies?  People cross county lines.  The growth rate in county A partially depends on the current case count in county B.  And the growth rate in county B partially depends on current cases in county A.  The main NPI argument is growth rates, and your chosen  type of study explicitly mixes the growth rates.
> 
> Double this if the NPI in question is indoor dining.  Residents of county A will travel to county B to work and eat in restaurants.  This mixes your data even more.
> 
> It seems a non-adjacent county study, but with similar weather, SES, and demographics, would be preferable.


The problem with that is then, as with Los Angeles, you’ll just say different variants. Otherwise Los Angeles is really all you need look at.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 2, 2021)

tenacious said:


> The thing is the states like Texas and Florida, that totally ignored Fauci's advice seem to generally have about the same rates of hospitalization and death as everyone else. Except Texas and Florida avoided destroying their economies.
> 
> Fauci was a stead hand through all this crazy year, and I don't doubt for a moment is a good man doing the best that he can in difficult times. But at some point the conversation has to turn to what went wrong, and how could be do better next time.


Start by looking at the prior administration’s lack of serious intent, how they ignored/denied the groundwork that was already in place provided by past administrations, undermining of their own team and its recommendations, etc. Except THAT reality first and the trends amongst the indoctrinated base it created, THEN you can begin to assess the overall response.


----------



## Grace T. (May 2, 2021)

Interesting study I just read re democratic republic of Congo. Lower incidence of covid in Southern Asia and Africa may be explained by a prepandemic covid like illness producing covid like antibodies and T cells.  Will post when I’m back on a computer.  India would have to be explained but it may also be the answer for why the meltdown is happening there despite a 50% seroprevalence in some areas....the new mutations may not be as robustly covered by the prior prepandemic immunity.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Start by looking at the prior administration’s lack of serious intent, how they ignored/denied the groundwork that was already in place provided by past administrations, undermining of their own team and its recommendations, etc. Except THAT reality first and the trends amongst the indoctrinated base it created, THEN you can begin to assess the overall response.


Speaking of the indoctrinated base.


----------



## dad4 (May 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem with that is then, as with Los Angeles, you’ll just say different variants. Otherwise Los Angeles is really all you need look at.


Sorry.  The real world is messy.  It really throws a monkey wrench into things when Dallas has R0=3 and LA has R0=5.  It looks like the perfect thing to prove your side is right, and you're not allowed to compare them.  

This is why you need statistical analysis, instead of just reposting carefully selected graphs with 2-5 misleading arrows.


----------



## Grace T. (May 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sorry.  The real world is messy.  It really throws a monkey wrench into things when Dallas has R0=3 and LA has R0=5.  It looks like the perfect thing to prove your side is right, and you're not allowed to compare them.
> 
> This is why you need statistical analysis, instead of just reposting carefully selected graphs with 2-5 misleading arrows.


When you start throwing out everything it can lead to manipulation to get the results you want regardless of the side you are on. It takes an especially honest researcher with a self awareness of their bias. The cdc hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory on that front.


----------



## dad4 (May 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> When you start throwing out everything it can lead to manipulation to get the results you want regardless of the side you are on. It takes an especially honest researcher with a self awareness of their bias. The cdc hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory on that front.


I don't think you will find many epidemiologists willing to do a direct policy comparison between cities where one has wild type covid and the other has a high transmissibility variant.  

It would never make it through peer review.  Internet trolls can get away with it.  Real researchers can't.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Start by looking at the prior administration’s lack of serious intent, how they ignored/denied the groundwork that was already in place provided by past administrations, undermining of their own team and its recommendations, etc. Except THAT reality first and the trends amongst the indoctrinated base it created, THEN you can begin to assess the overall response.


So follow the politics not the science?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sorry.  The real world is messy.  It really throws a monkey wrench into things when Dallas has R0=3 and LA has R0=5.  It looks like the perfect thing to prove your side is right, and you're not allowed to compare them.
> 
> This is why you need statistical analysis, instead of just reposting carefully selected graphs with 2-5 misleading arrows.


I can take the arrows and labels out and let you tell your own story.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't think you will find many epidemiologists willing to do a direct policy comparison between cities where one has wild type covid and the other has a high transmissibility variant.
> 
> It would never make it through peer review.  Internet trolls can get away with it.  Real researchers can't.


And they haven't.  That's why the graphics list the sources.   Please continue.


----------



## Grace T. (May 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't think you will find many epidemiologists willing to do a direct policy comparison between cities where one has wild type covid and the other has a high transmissibility variant.
> 
> It would never make it through peer review.  Internet trolls can get away with it.  Real researchers can't.


So we are back to, due to demographic, cultural and variant differences, no such comparisons are possible.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 2, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So follow the politics not the science?


Is it comprehension you lack or are you just intentionally ignorant?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So we are back to, due to demographic, cultural and variant differences, no such comparisons are possible.


Too funny.  Too bad Dad4 didn't start out with "no such comparisons are possible".  He would have left his statistical analysis for the 2nd time we PCR, Mask, social distance, and shut down an economy to protect ourselves from a common cold virus.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Is it comprehension you lack or are you just intentionally ignorant?


Hanapaa!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

First, the ol' California vs. Florida issue again.

The best the excuse factory has been able to do is to pretend that Californians aren't complying with the regulations or they're not staying home. Why, they're still going to restaurants! This is supposed to be why California is doing worse than Florida at the present moment.

In fact, the evidence is the other way around. Here's a plot of restaurant visits in Florida (top line) alongside restaurant visits in California (bottom line):


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 2, 2021)

First, the ol' California vs. Florida issue again.

The best the excuse factory has been able to do is to pretend that Californians aren't complying with the regulations or they're not staying home. Why, they're still going to restaurants! This is supposed to be why California is doing worse than Florida at the present moment.

In fact, the evidence is the other way around. Here's a plot of restaurant visits in Florida (top line) alongside restaurant visits in California (bottom line):


----------



## dad4 (May 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So we are back to, due to demographic, cultural and variant differences, no such comparisons are possible.


You're welcome to compare Michigan to Wisconsin last month.  ( I know.  You dislike NPI, so you don't want to talk about Michigan right now. )  But it's an interesting pair.  Same variant, same weather, same SES, same culture, different policies.  And Lake Michigan makes sure it's difficult to pop over the state border- at least for the high population areas.

At first glance MI/WI seems to be a strong argument in favor of keeping your restrictions until after you vaccinate.

Even then, it may not show much.  You'd have to check whether WI and MI had similar seroprevalence before the MI rule changes.   If WI was at 9% when MI was at 7% confirmed infections, then it may prove nothing more than that most people don't get infected twice.

Like I said, data is messy.


----------



## Grace T. (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You're welcome to compare Michigan to Wisconsin last month.  ( I know.  You dislike NPI, so you don't want to talk about Michigan right now. )  But it's an interesting pair.  Same variant, same weather, same SES, same culture, different policies.  And Lake Michigan makes sure it's difficult to pop over the state border- at least for the high population areas.
> 
> At first glance MI/WI seems to be a strong argument in favor of keeping your restrictions until after you vaccinate.
> 
> ...


Didn’t the Wisconsin Supreme Court strike down the mask mandate at the end of March and everyone predicted as a result it would follow Michigan in April (but it didn’t)?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You're welcome to compare Michigan to Wisconsin last month.  ( I know.  You dislike NPI, so you don't want to talk about Michigan right now. )  But it's an interesting pair.  Same variant, same weather, same SES, same culture, different policies.  And Lake Michigan makes sure it's difficult to pop over the state border- at least for the high population areas.
> 
> At first glance MI/WI seems to be a strong argument in favor of keeping your restrictions until after you vaccinate.
> 
> ...


Like I said, flip a coin. That's pretty much what using the epidemiologists' predictions for public policy comes down to. How useful is it if they blame it on housing density? That's not solvable in any practical way short-term and unlikely to be solved long term especially considering we will have many new immigrants. If they can't consistently predict outcomes of policy, we need to give less weight to their opinions.


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Didn’t the Wisconsin Supreme Court strike down the mask mandate at the end of March and everyone predicted as a result it would follow Michigan in April (but it didn’t)?


What epidemiology training does the wisconsin supreme court have?  Courts are collections of English majors who think they know everything.  I don't have much respect for their scientific advice.

I looked up MI/WI.  It is a bad comparison.  Wisconsin had 11% confirmed cases.  Michigan had 7%.  All it proves is that you don't get a huge spike when you have a large immune population.

If you want to figure it out, look for places which had low to moderate seroprevalence and then changed behavior.  MI, NE, India.  Not sure where else fits the description.  

If you just want to prove your side is right, ask team virus and they'll agree with you.


----------



## Grace T. (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What epidemiology training does the wisconsin supreme court have?  Courts are collections of English majors who think they know everything.  I don't have much respect for their scientific advice.
> 
> I looked up MI/WI.  It is a bad comparison.  Wisconsin had 11% confirmed cases.  Michigan had 7%.  All it proves is that you don't get a huge spike when you have a large immune population.
> 
> ...


So you invite a wi mi comparison and then when you don’t like what it shows say nevermind?

Or you could look at your preferred solution of masks+no indoor dining, look at Los Angeles, and see how well it worked.


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Like I said, flip a coin. That's pretty much what using the epidemiologists' predictions for public policy comes down to. How useful is it if they blame it on housing density? That's not solvable in any practical way short-term and unlikely to be solved long term especially considering we will have many new immigrants. If they can't consistently predict outcomes of policy, we need to give less weight to their opinions.


Knowing the link to cramped housing helps you avoid drawing a bad policy conclusion from your LA data.

Unless you ignore it.  Then you learn nothing, and it is that much harder to enact useful policies.

I don't think anyone has predictions as accurate as you want.  They can tell you that cases will be higher with indoor dining than without.  They can tell you that the choir practice is a bad idea.  But they can't tell you what cases will be in 8-12 weeks.

Sorry.  If someone had that crystal ball they'd use it.


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So you invite a wi mi comparison and then when you don’t like what it shows say nevermind?
> 
> Or you could look at your preferred solution of masks+no indoor dining, look at Los Angeles, and see how well it worked.


I was pointing to WI/MI because it's the kind of n=2 cheap shot BIZ keeps pushing.  It's not valid when I do it, either.   Or when you do it with LA, as above.

I think a WI/MI fall 2020 comparison would be interesting.  You'd have to look at their policies, street view estimates for mask usage, mobility data, and so on.  Not sure how much it would say, but it would tell us more than spring 2021.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Like I said, data is messy.


But it had you shaking in your boots.  Not a very analytical response.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Knowing the link to cramped housing helps you avoid drawing a bad policy conclusion from your LA data.
> 
> Unless you ignore it.  Then you learn nothing, and it is that much harder to enact useful policies.
> 
> ...


No need to get defensive and offer an insincere apology. My point is simply that experts in epidemiology have been given too much influence on policy. As you state, they don't have a crystal ball and their advisements are not without other costs that have been underrepresented in policymaking.


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> No need to get defensive and offer an insincere apology. My point is simply that experts in epidemiology have been given too much influence on policy. As you state, they don't have a crystal ball and their advisements are not without other costs that have been underrepresented in policymaking.


You are essentially saying that you shouldn't have to wear your winter coat unless the weather man can accurately predict rain 3 weeks from now.

The two are not linked.  We have enough evidence to know that masks reduce transmission.  Can we act on that evidence, or do we need to wait for some really accurate 8 week case count forecasts?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I was pointing to WI/MI because it's the kind of n=2 cheap shot BIZ keeps pushing.  It's not valid when I do it, either.   Or when you do it with LA, as above.
> 
> I think a WI/MI fall 2020 comparison would be interesting.  You'd have to look at their policies, street view estimates for mask usage, mobility data, and so on.  Not sure how much it would say, but it would tell us more than spring 2021.


Oh please.  Your hysteria was solely based on cases that were dependent on PCR test.  It doesn't get any messier than that.  Now you wanna go granular to substantiate your shallow analytics.  Pathetic.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are essentially saying that you shouldn't have to wear your winter coat unless the weather man can accurately predict rain 3 weeks from now.
> 
> The two are not linked.  We have enough evidence to know that masks reduce transmission.  Can we act on that evidence, or do we need to wait for some really accurate 8 week case count forecasts?


You really should just move on to the climate.  You can beat CNN to the punch if you start now.


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Oh please.  Your hysteria was solely based on cases that were dependent on PCR test.  It doesn't get any messier than that.  Now you wanna go granular to substantiate your shallow analytics.  Pathetic.


Still waiting for you to write a coherent explanation of your "r^2" analysis.

We can talk stats once you manage that.  Until then, you might not want to throw shade on other people's analytics.


----------



## Grace T. (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I was pointing to WI/MI because it's the kind of n=2 cheap shot BIZ keeps pushing.  It's not valid when I do it, either.   Or when you do it with LA, as above.
> 
> I think a WI/MI fall 2020 comparison would be interesting.  You'd have to look at their policies, street view estimates for mask usage, mobility data, and so on.  Not sure how much it would say, but it would tell us more than spring 2021.


So just take the time period which works for you?  I seem to recall the CDC doing that too....


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So just take the time period which works for you?  I seem to recall the CDC doing that too....


I don't think you follow.  The spring time period works great for me.   If I were comparison shopping, I'd be perfectly happy to look at spring:  MI opens restaurants, MI has a huge spike.  WI has flat restaurant policy, no spike.  All done.  A simple, easy, dishonest proof that restaurants cause a huge spike.  All ready for Twitter.

However, it isn't valid.  You don't get to compare growth rates when one area has 50% more seroprevalence than the other.  The high immunity area is not at all comparable to the low immunity area.


----------



## Grace T. (May 3, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (May 3, 2021)

Pre-pandemic SARS-CoV-2 potential natural immunity among population of the Democratic Republic of Congo
					

More than a year after the emergence of COVID-19, significant regional differences in terms of morbidity persist, showing lower incidence rates in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Oceania. Like SARS-CoV-1 and MERS viruses, SARS-CoV-2 is monophyletically positioned with parental species of...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## Grace T. (May 3, 2021)

Ventura County today announced vaccines are available to anyone who wants one without appointment, just walk in.


----------



## watfly (May 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ventura County today announced vaccines are available to anyone who wants one without appointment, just walk in.


So am I missing something? The Today show said 100m Americans are fully vaccinated and another 140m have had their first shot.  So 240m will be fully vaccinated in the next few weeks (some may opt out of second shot but will still be "significantly" vaccinated).  If we have a population of 328m and it looks like approx 65m are below current vaccination age, that would mean 91% of those eligible for vaccinations will be vaccinated in a few weeks.  To me that's an incredible response...maybe my and Kickingandscreaming's debate about vaccine hesitancy is irrelevant.


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> So am I missing something? The Today show said 100m Americans are fully vaccinated and another 140m have had their first shot.  So 240m will be fully vaccinated in the next few weeks (some may opt out of second shot but will still be "significantly" vaccinated).  If we have a population of 328m and it looks like approx 65m are below current vaccination age, that would mean 91% of those eligible for vaccinations will be vaccinated in a few weeks.  To me that's an incredible response...maybe my and Kickingandscreaming's debate about vaccine hesitancy is irrelevant.


It isn’t “another” 140 million.  The 140 million already includes the 100 million.   Slowing down and nowhere near herd immunity.

It’s uneven.  Some places are nearing 60% of all adults.  Some are down near 30%.  So, some places will end up herd immune.  And some will not.


----------



## watfly (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It isn’t “another” 140 million.  The 140 million already includes the 100 million.   Slowing down and nowhere near herd immunity.
> 
> It’s uneven.  Some places are nearing 60% of all adults.  Some are down near 30%.  So, some places will end up herd immune.  And some will not.


I double checked the Today episode show because I thought the same thing and they clearly said 100m fully and another 140m 1st shot, including a graphic saying the same thing.  So now looking at the CDC website it looks like NBC was incorrect as CDC is reporting 105m fully vaccinated and 147m with "at least one dose". That's an incredibly egregious error for NBC to make, and peculiar in light of the fact that their known for always portraying the "worst case scenario" when it comes to Covid.  I guess shame on me for believing a story from network news.


----------



## Grace T. (May 3, 2021)

Just got a "public safety alert" on my phone: LA County now offering shots without appointments.


----------



## espola (May 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Just got a "public safety alert" on my phone: LA County now offering shots without appointments.


There were a few younger people lined up at my pharmacy in Alpine today when I went in to pick up my Rx.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Still waiting for you to write a coherent explanation of your "r^2" analysis.
> 
> We can talk stats once you manage that.  Until then, you might not want to throw shade on other people's analytics.


Still waiting for you to calculate the R-squared.  Not that a calculation is needed to show a correlation between deaths and hysteria generated cases.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It isn’t “another” 140 million.  The 140 million already includes the 100 million.   Slowing down and nowhere near herd immunity.
> 
> It’s uneven.  Some places are nearing 60% of all adults.  Some are down near 30%.  So, some places will end up herd immune.  And some will not.


I've seen your second graf to be true too. I know of a place in the Bay Area where upwards of 90% people are vaccinated at least partially. It's a popular place for retired Berkeley profs to end up, so no surprise there  .


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Still waiting for you to calculate the R-squared.  Not that a calculation is needed to show a correlation between deaths and hysteria generated cases.


Enlighten me.  Explain your great R^2 wisdom.

For now, I am going with the simpler explanation.  BIZ has no clue what to do with a correlation coefficient or how to interpret one.  He saw a link on Twitter which talked about how R^2 “proves“ something, and ever since then he’s been dropping the phrase into his posts to try to sound more informed than he really is.


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I've seen your second graf to be true too. I know of a place in the Bay Area where upwards of 90% people are vaccinated at least partially. It's a popular place for retired Berkeley profs to end up, so no surprise there  .


I suspect the hills above gourmet ghetto are pretty safe by now.  Nice spot.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Pre-pandemic SARS-CoV-2 potential natural immunity among population of the Democratic Republic of Congo
> 
> 
> More than a year after the emergence of COVID-19, significant regional differences in terms of morbidity persist, showing lower incidence rates in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Oceania. Like SARS-CoV-1 and MERS viruses, SARS-CoV-2 is monophyletically positioned with parental species of...
> ...


Imagine that.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Enlighten me.  Explain your great R^2 wisdom.
> 
> For now, I am going with the simpler explanation.  BIZ has no clue what to do with a correlation coefficient or how to interpret one.  He saw a link on Twitter which talked about how R^2 “proves“ something, and ever since then he’s been dropping the phrase into his posts to try to sound more informed than he really is.


Give me something to interpret beside your case hysteria.


----------



## dad4 (May 3, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Give me something to interpret beside your case hysteria.


You apparently think I've never seen a kid who can't do the homework and relies instead on bluster and bull shit.

I suppose I should say something inspirational to help you....

Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You apparently think I've never seen a kid who can't do the homework and relies instead on bluster and bull shit.
> 
> I suppose I should say something inspirational to help you....
> 
> Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.


Too funny.  I've read your scatology as you dervished your way around unregulated mask, immune systems, and a long history of dealing with respiratory diseases that did not require the tyrannical public policies that you support.  Hope you're inspired to branch out and study the human immune system.  Maybe do more qualitative analysis.  Too easy for you to be wrong if all you're trying to do is quantify a crisis. After all who knew that respiratory diseases took the year off in 2017?  Meaning we were due for a catch up year.  You apparently think I've never seen a kid who can't do the research and relies instead on eloquent bluster and bull shit.  

I suppose I should say something inspirational to help you....

I can't think of anything.

Oh.  If you have access to a HELOC.  Use it to accelerate your Mortgage and save thousands while paying your home off in 5 to 7 years on average.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 4, 2021)

An exercise mandate would have been better it appears.  Who knew?

By PAUL SISSON

APRIL 17, 2021 6:11 PM PT

Regular exercise habits appear to be just the thing for shaking off severe COVID-19 complications, according to a new study of more than 48,000 Kaiser Permanente patients in Southern California.

Kaiser members who reported that they were regularly engaging in at least 150 minutes of moderate-to-strenuous exercise per week — essentially a brisk walk or better — when they were diagnosed with COVID-19 had significantly lower odds of hospitalization, intensive care unit admission and death than those who estimated their weekly efforts at 10 minutes or less.

The results were less dramatic, but still visible, for those who said they exercised for between 10 and 149 minutes per week.

Researchers found that the risk of hospitalization for those with low activity levels was more than twice as high as for those who got moving for at least 2.5 hours every week. Low activity levels also correlated with death rates that were about 2.5 times higher than they were for those with high activity levels.

Consistent physical inactivity was found to be a more severe risk factor than pre-existing heart disease, diabetes, kidney disease and high blood pressure among the group of patients studied. Only having had a previous organ transplant or pregnancy at the time of infection correlated with greater odds of COVID-related hospital admission.

Dr. James Sallis, a professor emeritus at UC San Diego’s Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and co-author of the paper, said the findings reinforce what research has consistently and increasingly shown across many types of disease.

“Physical activity is one of the most powerful producers of health that exists, and yet it’s basically ignored in most medical care,” he said.

For years the empirical evidence has been growing stronger in cancer, for example. Cancer patients with seven main types of disease have been shown to have measurably-better outcomes if they keep exercising during their course of illness.

Kaiser, as it happens, was perfectly positioned to study physical activity among the coronavirus positive due to an initiative begun in 2009 that asks all patients to estimate their exercise levels during routine office visits.

A research team led by Dr. Robert Sallis, a Kaiser sports medicine specialist in Fontana unrelated to his colleague at UCSD, analyzed the aggregated electronic health record data of 48,440 Kaiser patients across Southern California who had COVID-19 diagnoses between Jan. 1 and Oct. 21, 2020, choosing only those who estimated their activity levels at least three times in the previous two years.

Chart of Kaiser study on activity levels of COVID-19 patients

Because health records reflect data generally recorded before patients tested positive, they indicate ongoing pre-existing exercise habits. After all, COVID-19 symptoms generally impinge upon even well-established workout routines.









Anne Swisher, a professor of physical therapy at West Virginia University who has studied the health effects of physical activity extensively, said the paper’s conclusions were exciting. She said Kaiser’s initiative to record physical activity as a vital sign in the same way that factors such as height, weight and blood pressure are routine parts of each office visit is industry leading.

She cautioned the public to avoid thinking of those who are not exercising enough as lazy. In many cases, those who aren’t moving much may have an illness or other condition that makes their life more sedentary than they would like.

“Individuals who are very sedentary may have the greatest barriers to physical activity such as having significant mobility challenges like being wheelchair users,” Swisher said.

James Sallis, who has spent much of his career studying the effects of exercise on overall health, said that the results should be a wake-up call for the public health community.

He said that though he and his colleagues urged that a call for maintaining as much exercise as possible be a major part of the pandemic message alongside pleas for hand washing and mask wearing, that urging generally fell upon deaf ears.

It felt like a missed opportunity, Sallis said, because there is plenty of research that shows that compounds critical to immune system function, and to inflammation reduction, are produced by the body’s muscles.

“We feel like our concerns about physical activity were not being prioritized during the pandemic, when the message was generally to stay home,” Sallis said. “We hope that the data in this paper will be seen as good evidence that we cannot ignore the power of physical activity during our response to a pandemic.

“A message that physical activity could protect you from ending up in the hospital, in my view, could have saved many lives over the past year, but I would also say it’s not too late to get started.”

Swisher agreed.

It couldn’t hurt, she said in an email, to remind the public as often as possible that exercise is good medicine at a time when everything is locked down and screen time is on the rise.

“Physical activity is a ‘medicine’ with extremely few adverse effects,” she said.

The study was first published online in the British Journal of Sports Medicine Tuesday.

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2021/04/07/bjsports-2021-104080


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Enlighten me.  Explain your great R^2 wisdom.
> 
> For now, I am going with the simpler explanation.  BIZ has no clue what to do with a correlation coefficient or how to interpret one.  He saw a link on Twitter which talked about how R^2 “proves“ something, and ever since then he’s been dropping the phrase into his posts to try to sound more informed than he really is.


That’s what he does. Always has.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389371057581264898


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389371057581264898


Do you want to explain how this is an example of selection bias, or shall I?


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace and Husker, 

Looking at CA, case rates are the lowest in the country.  Hospitalization rates are the 5th lowest.

Daily average deaths are still really high.  10th highest in the nation.  A lot of people dying, not many in hospitals.

Some of that is just because deaths are a lagging indicator.  But the high death/low hospitalization rates makes me wonder if the people who are sick are also avoiding seeking care.  More so here than in other places.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Grace and Husker,
> 
> Looking at CA, case rates are the lowest in the country.  Hospitalization rates are the 5th lowest.
> 
> ...


Good point. There may be some of that going on particularly in Latino working class communities as I know of a few instances where families tried to avoid doctors for a variety of reasons.  Some of it though is also hospitals coding people who die with covid as having died of covid due to the generous payments California provides. La recorded no deaths the last 2 days. We’ll see if that holds when they go back in to update for coding.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Do you want to explain how this is an example of selection bias, or shall I?


Yeah but you and I have already established these comparisons are pretty much garbage, regardless of whether an internet troll or the cdc does them, since there’s no unbiased way that’s acceptable to weigh other factors so both sides have at it with the garbage selection bias.


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah but you and I have already established these comparisons are pretty much garbage, regardless of whether an internet troll or the cdc does them, since there’s no unbiased way that’s acceptable to weigh other factors so both sides have at it with the garbage selection bias.


No.  I don't put peer reviewed scientific papers in the same bucket as Internet trolls.  Neither should you.

There is plenty of good science on this.  It's just not from Twitter.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No.  I don't put peer reviewed scientific papers in the same bucket as Internet trolls.  Neither should you.
> 
> There is plenty of good science on this.  It's just not from Twitter.


“Good science”. That’s funny. I needed the chuckle. Thanks!


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> “Good science”. That’s funny. I needed the chuckle. Thanks!


So, no fancy materials science for you?  What are you typing on, an IBM Selectric?  

I don't know what you're using, but I can guarantee the manufacturer employs multiple scientists to make it possible.

If you want to buy your electronics from someone who uses Twitter instead of scientists, go for it.  I suspect you'll have some difficulties.....


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Some of it though is also hospitals coding people who die with covid as having died of covid due to the generous payments California provides.


It is despicable of you to repeat that lie.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

espola said:


> It is despicable of you to repeat that lie.


It’s not a lie. I’ve been privy to the experience second hand.


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s not a lie. I’ve been privy to the experience second hand.


Oh, second-hand.  That's almost as good as evidence.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, no fancy materials science for you?  What are you typing on, an IBM Selectric?
> 
> I don't know what you're using, but I can guarantee the manufacturer employs multiple scientists to make it possible.
> 
> If you want to buy your electronics from someone who uses Twitter instead of scientists, go for it.  I suspect you'll have some difficulties.....


Yer that’s also we yokles avoid dem der flying contraptions too

Gee way to go comparing dogs and cats. You were the one that pointed out the art in making the comparisons, which are easily manipulated, rendering them garbage


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

espola said:


> Oh, second-hand.  That's almost as good as evidence.


Well it’s awfully hard to do first hand unless I’m dead, the attending physician or the entry clerk.


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well it’s awfully hard to do first hand unless I’m dead, the attending physician or the entry clerk.


That statement reduces it to third-hand, at best.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

espola said:


> That statement reduces it to third-hand, at best.


Then you don’t know the difference.


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Then you don’t know the difference.


Have you seen the death certificates in question?  

That would be second-hand.


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yer that’s also we yokles avoid dem der flying contraptions too
> 
> Gee way to go comparing dogs and cats. You were the one that pointed out the art in making the comparisons, which are easily manipulated, rendering them garbage


I agree it’s possible to make bad comparisons.  You can even get yourself into trouble with regressions, though it’s slightly harder.

That doesn’t mean I believe all comparisons and all regressions are bad.  It just means you need some quality control on your data manipulations.  

This is why I pay attention to your posts from research journals, and mock your Twitter posts.  One is a serious effort to help grow our understanding of the world, and the other is blatant data manipulation by half-educated advocates.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you seen the death certificates in question?
> 
> That would be second-hand.


No but know the attendings that have done/ordered it.


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No but know the attendings that have done/ordered it.


And your evidence of anyone doing that is what?


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I agree it’s possible to make bad comparisons.  You can even get yourself into trouble with regressions, though it’s slightly harder.
> 
> That doesn’t mean I believe all comparisons and all regressions are bad.  It just means you need some quality control on your data manipulations.
> 
> This is why I pay attention to your posts from research journals, and mock your Twitter posts.  One is a serious effort to help grow our understanding of the world, and the other is blatant data manipulation by half-educated advocates.


Science requires an objective search for the truth.  When it comes to covid, as that ludricrous cdc county study or the school reopening guidelines show, there is no such thing

And you do pay attention as rather than ignore them you feel compelled to comment so that’s not true either


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

espola said:


> And your evidence of anyone doing that is what?


Uh uh. Not getting anyone fired. Let’s just say I’m part of a very very large medical family with relatives at all levels of the medical service industry.


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Uh uh. Not getting anyone fired. Let’s just say I’m part of a very very large medical family with relatives at all levels of the medical service industry.


Or you could just say that you misunderstood what someone told you.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

espola said:


> Or you could just say that you misunderstood what someone told you.


Nope. Drilled down hard on it. They aren’t making stuff up. Just maximizing counts for a variety of reasons

Our local paper did an investigation on one case of a guy who died in a car crash.  The counts all add up he was counted as a covid death.  County citing privacy still refuses to say.


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Science requires an objective search for the truth.  When it comes to covid, as that ludricrous cdc county study or the school reopening guidelines show, there is no such thing
> 
> And you do pay attention as rather than ignore them you feel compelled to comment so that’s not true either


I said mock, not ignore.  On my worse days, I also mock you for posting them.  

Your complaint with CDC data is heavily repeated, but not well supported.  It still strikes me as nitpicking because you don’t want it to be true.  

Look at your analysis of the Roosevelt study.  You see it as “we can’t say anything because mask wearers may also have avoided high risk places.”. I see it as “the combination of masks and risk avoidance was incredibly effective.”.   Same data.  No question about significance.  The only question is how much was masks and how mich was avoiding high risk places.   You can argue for either side of that question, but there is absolutely no reason to throw the data out entirely.  At least one of the two was very effective.  Why ignore the data?

Unless, as I suspect, you don’t want either one to be true.  You don’t want a mask mandate to make sense.  And you don’t want to close high risk places.  Therefore, you use the mask / high risk area conflation as an excuse to pretend that neither one works.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I said mock, not ignore.  On my worse days, I also mock you for posting them.
> 
> Your complaint with CDC data is heavily repeated, but not well supported.  It still strikes me as nitpicking because you don’t want it to be true.
> 
> ...


There you go again.  Ascribing bad motivations.  I actually think risk avoidance is a highly effective technique for avoiding COVID, at least on a micro level.  On a macro level it doesn't do a whole lot of good unless you are going to collapse your country like Peru and Argentina, and in any case it's not sustainable as both countries have shown.  I just don't think the mask piece, particularly indoors in a place where people were sleeping in tight quarters, and it's bad science to conflate both and then declare "masks work!".  No the only thing you've proven is masks + distancing work, at least on a micro level, and I don't really dispute that.  I just think the mask part is somewhat superfluous


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389678199391592452


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There you go again.  Ascribing bad motivations.  I actually think risk avoidance is a highly effective technique for avoiding COVID, at least on a micro level.  On a macro level it doesn't do a whole lot of good unless you are going to collapse your country like Peru and Argentina, and in any case it's not sustainable as both countries have shown.  I just don't think the mask piece, particularly indoors in a place where people were sleeping in tight quarters, and it's bad science to conflate both and then declare "masks work!".  No the only thing you've proven is masks + distancing work, at least on a micro level, and I don't really dispute that.  I just think the mask part is somewhat superfluous


p.s. this is basic high school scientific principles 101 which you as a STEM person and educator no doubt have more experience than me, so I'll throw back one of your favorite lines "but you know that"


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389678199391592452


Faster or slower than the rate of unvaccinated?


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nope. Drilled down hard on it. They aren’t making stuff up. Just maximizing counts for a variety of reasons
> 
> Our local paper did an investigation on one case of a guy who died in a car crash.  The counts all add up he was counted as a covid death.  County citing privacy still refuses to say.


Which hospital?  Which doctor?


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

espola said:


> Which hospital?  Which doctor?


My relatives?  Uh uh.   Go f yourself.

For the local paper?  The guy died at Los Robles Hospital in Thousand Oaks.


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My relatives?  Uh uh.   Go f yourself.
> 
> For the local paper?  The guy died at Los Robles Hospital in Thousand Oaks.


Here is something you might want to read --









						Partly false claim: Hospitals get compensated 15% more when they admit, discharge, or lose a patient to COVID-19; New York City hospitals are inflating their case numbers to take advantage
					

Shared hundreds of times on Facebook, posts claim: “Every time a hospital admits, discharges, or loses a patient to Covid-19, they are compensated 15% more according to the CARES ACT, SEC 4409”. The posts also say that New York City hospitals are “inflating all of their...




					www.reuters.com
				




An inrteresting rebuttal would be a link to the newspaper article you mentioned


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

espola said:


> Here is something you might want to read --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It happened in the April/May time frame.  The editor of the paper's twitter handle is Kyle Jorrey.  You are welcome to search his back twitter and his bilines for his reporting of it for the Acorn paper.  In the printed version you'll only find that the county was unwilling, citing privacy concerns, to say whether the death was counted as COVID or not.  His twitter elaborates on why it was probably counted as a COVID death (unless some 20 year old died at the same hospital of COVID on the same day).

There's nothing in the article that you posted that is wrong.  The Medicare portion of it, however, is only a very small piece of it, particularly in some blue states like California.  There are other factors at play including county directives, state aid, staying on the good side of the bureaucrats, and a desire for completeness.  They aren't making things up...COVID is listed on the death certificate as one of the causes....presumably in the case of the auto accident because of the difficulty resuscitating him because of COVID...but the main cause anyone could see is the car accident.


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It happened in the April/May time frame.  The editor of the paper's twitter handle is Kyle Jorrey.  You are welcome to search his back twitter and his bilines for his reporting of it for the Acorn paper.  In the printed version you'll only find that the county was unwilling, citing privacy concerns, to say whether the death was counted as COVID or not.  His twitter elaborates on why it was probably counted as a COVID death (unless some 20 year old died at the same hospital of COVID on the same day).
> 
> There's nothing in the article that you posted that is wrong.  The Medicare portion of it, however, is only a very small piece of it, particularly in some blue states like California.  There are other factors at play including county directives, state aid, staying on the good side of the bureaucrats, and a desire for completeness.  They aren't making things up...COVID is listed on the death certificate as one of the causes....presumably in the case of the auto accident because of the difficulty resuscitating him because of COVID...but the main cause anyone could see is the car accident.


That's just handwaving.  And it appears you are attempting to quietly back away from your lie.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I just think the mask part is somewhat superfluous


Some masks are quite effective....

I ordered one of these the other day. Just waiting on the Amazon delivery.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

espola said:


> That's just handwaving.  And it appears you are attempting to quietly back away from your lie.


Nope.  You are just reading more into it than there is.  It's no grand conspiracy.  There's always a question of how to count.  The collective decision was just made early on to err on the side of overcounting rather than undercounting, which is why you get weird circumstances like the 20 something  
driver.  When you get down to the numbers we are at now, it makes a difference.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

The Liberals Who Can’t Quit Lockdown
					

Progressive communities have been home to some of the fiercest battles over COVID-19 policies, and some liberal policy makers have left scientific evidence behind.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## espola (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nope.  You are just reading more into it than there is.  It's no grand conspiracy.  There's always a question of how to count.  The collective decision was just made early on to err on the side of overcounting rather than undercounting, which is why you get weird circumstances like the 20 something
> driver.  When you get down to the numbers we are at now, it makes a difference.


I suppose it is encouraging to 20-somethings with covid that they won't die in an auto accident.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 4, 2021)

So Bill Gates is getting a divorce. At this point I'd rather talk about that!


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> So Bill Gates is getting a divorce. At this point I'd rather talk about that!


You haven't heard the conspiracy theory?  That it's to take total control of the Gates foundation and build upon the pandemic shutdowns to advance the Great Reset (which is why Biden is spending so much, opening up the borders, talking about less meat, and trying to revamp the election laws and make DC a state)?  Yeah it's crazy for coocoo puffs stuff.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You haven't heard the conspiracy theory?  That it's to take total control of the Gates foundation and build upon the pandemic shutdowns to advance the Great Reset (which is why Biden is spending so much, opening up the borders, talking about less meat, and trying to revamp the election laws and make DC a state)?  Yeah it's crazy for coocoo puffs stuff.


OMG no. Thank god I some how steer clear of that madness.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> OMG no. Thank god I some how steer clear of that madness.


You aren't paying attention to Fauci.  Shame on you.  We are only slightly more than halfway over, in the bottom of the 6th inning.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389706051423965186


----------



## watfly (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You aren't paying attention to Fauci.  Shame on you.  We are only slightly more than halfway over, in the bottom of the 6th inning.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389706051423965186


He may be in the bottom of the 6th but the majority of Americans are at the bar having a drink after the game.  It's quite comical that politicians think the general public is still listening to their Covid recommendations.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> That’s what he does. Always has.


Shooooo fly.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No.  I don't put peer reviewed scientific papers in the same bucket as Internet trolls.  Neither should you.
> 
> There is plenty of good science on this.  It's just not from Twitter.


Oh please.  You and your science are siloed. You've been cherry picking data for over a year now.  Talk about selection bias.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You aren't paying attention to Fauci.  Shame on you.  We are only slightly more than halfway over, in the bottom of the 6th inning.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389706051423965186


He's such a Bozo.


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There you go again.  Ascribing bad motivations.  I actually think risk avoidance is a highly effective technique for avoiding COVID, at least on a micro level.  On a macro level it doesn't do a whole lot of good unless you are going to collapse your country like Peru and Argentina, and in any case it's not sustainable as both countries have shown.  I just don't think the mask piece, particularly indoors in a place where people were sleeping in tight quarters, and it's bad science to conflate both and then declare "masks work!".  No the only thing you've proven is masks + distancing work, at least on a micro level, and I don't really dispute that.  I just think the mask part is somewhat superfluous


Micro/macro?  Sounds clever.  Now think it through.

What possible mechanism could mean that avoiding high risk places reduces transmission when 3000 people do it, but fails completely if 330 million people do it?

And how does the math work on that?  When I was avoiding restaurants, was my risk lower- because my household and neighborhood are micro?  Or was my risk still high, because the country as a whole is macro?  

Perhaps because I am part of both micro and macro groups, my risk was both low and high at the same time.

Or, maybe, the total for a population is the sum of subtotals for each of the subgroups.  Same as back when you took BC Calc.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Micro/macro?  Sounds clever.  Now think it through.
> 
> What possible mechanism could mean that avoiding high risk places reduces transmission when 3000 people do it, but fails completely if 330 million people do it?
> 
> ...


Or maybe like when you studied the different effects in basic college economics.  Societal effects don’t always scale up. 

The reason in this case is simple. You can’t have perfect distance or societies collapse and imperfect distance eventually gives way to fatigue since humans are social animals. Again the 20 year old dangy bro is not going to be celebate a year plus

But then you’ve never been one for common sense. They don’t teach it in your ivory tower prison.


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Or maybe like when you studied the different effects in basic college economics.  Societal effects don’t always scale up.
> 
> The reason in this case is simple. You can’t have perfect distance or societies collapse and imperfect distance eventually gives way to fatigue since humans are social animals. Again the 20 year old dangy bro is not going to be celebate a year plus
> 
> But then you’ve never been one for common sense. They don’t teach it in your ivory tower prison.


Common sense?  I’m just asking whether I was being micro or macro when I was avoiding restaurants.  I wish i’d known I could just declare my self to be macro, so that I’m allowed to order the cioppino.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Common sense?  I’m just asking whether I was being micro or macro when I was avoiding restaurants.  I wish i’d known I could just declare my self to be macro, so that I’m allowed to order the cioppino.


“You are a toy!” So by definition you are micro and unable to order cioppino.

Your individual risk btw is a micro effect.  Nation wide implications are macro.  Really basic stuff here.


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> “You are a toy!” So by definition you are micro and unable to order cioppino.
> 
> Your individual risk btw is a micro effect.  Nation wide implications are macro.  Really basic stuff here.


Very sad that Buzz can't have cioppino.  Cioppino is great.  But I will carry on and help save the galaxy....

If one of us skips Cioppino, that helps because it is micro.  But if 100 million of us avoid restaurants, that is macro and therefore zero.  

For each person in the 100 million, our personal risk is lower.  But the total risk among all of us is unchanged.

And why, exactly, is it not additive?  How can we add 100 million negative numbers and end up with zero?

Like you said, basic stuff.   Despite that, you're still not making any sense.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Very sad that Buzz can't have cioppino.  Cioppino is great.  But I will carry on and help save the galaxy....
> 
> If one of us skips Cioppino, that helps because it is micro.  But if 100 million of us avoid restaurants, that is macro and therefore zero.
> 
> ...


Because its not just restaurants. It’s work, it’s kids in school, it’s people socializing.  Because we are social creatures and you can’t sustain that for a year plus. You can’t even sustain it in a restaurants for a year because of the mass business upheavals and the political pressure to reopen. So while you can avoid eating at restaurants for a year it’s not feasible to have a mass population do it.  It’s the type of fantasy you only find at Disneyland. 

Btw are you finally saying the dad4 npi plan would have been limited to masks+ dining &bar closures?  We have you on record that in the alternate space command universe that would have been the dad plan?

Basic stuff even for a toy.


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Because its not just restaurants. It’s work, it’s kids in school, it’s people socializing.  Because we are social creatures and you can’t sustain that for a year plus. You can’t even sustain it in a restaurants for a year because of the mass business upheavals and the political pressure to reopen. So while you can avoid eating at restaurants for a year it’s not feasible to have a mass population do it.  It’s the type of fantasy you only find at Disneyland.
> 
> Btw are you finally saying the dad4 npi plan would have been limited to masks+ dining &bar closures?  We have you on record that in the alternate space command universe that would have been the dad plan?
> 
> Basic stuff even for a toy.


You actually got it wrong.  Your macro explanation simplifies to "it won't work because we refuse".  

I've already granted that.  We are stuck with covid because the right wing here refuses to get with the program.  See, we agree.

Your macro/micro stuff is a bit off, though.

The normal macro/micro distinction is more about externalities.  I can lower my personal driving risk by buying a heavier vehicle.  But this doesn't help overall, because the reduced risk for me is offset by increased risk to pedestrians and to other drivers.  So the micro effect is beneficial, but the macro effect is negative.

None of that applies to Cioppino.  When I skip Cioppino, there is no negative covid externality to offset my local benefit.  In fact, the external covid effect (less risk for the waiter) is also beneficial.  So the macro effect is aligned with the micro.

If you want to use macro/micro, you need some kind of large scale prisoner's dilemma.  Covid case rates don't provide that.

-Buzz Feldstein ( Chicago school. )


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You actually got it wrong.  Your macro explanation simplifies to "it won't work because we refuse".
> 
> I've already granted that.  We are stuck with covid because the right wing here refuses to get with the program.  See, we agree.
> 
> ...


No...it won’t work on a mass scale because human beings are social creatures. So one introverted weirdo can keep to himself and once weekly takeout (btw your tournament hypocrisy proves this effect...even you couldn’t do it) but if you amplify that across the country not only do you get the 1 tournament failing (whatever it is for that person) but you also get the other imperfections from folks less virtuous and more sociable and less weird than dad.   So some advice which may be useful for individuals fails when you scale it because it can’t be maintained...not because folks are naughty and don’t want to...but because neither they nor the economy are built that way


Why am I not surprised you have yet again declined to layout the Hindsight dad plan?


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No...it won’t work on a mass scale because human beings are social creatures. So one introverted weirdo can keep to himself and once weekly takeout (btw your tournament hypocrisy proves this effect...even you couldn’t do it) but if you amplify that across the country not only do you get the 1 tournament failing (whatever it is for that person) but you also get the other imperfections from folks less virtuous and more sociable and less weird than dad.   So some advice which may be useful for individuals fails when you scale it because it can’t be maintained...not because folks are naughty and don’t want to...but because neither they nor the economy are built that way
> 
> 
> Why am I not surprised you have yet again declined to layout the Hindsight dad plan?


That discussion is dead.  No matter what plan I suggest, you will assume no one complies.  There is not a covid containment plan which works despite no one following it.  Dead argument.

Back to macro/micro: can you explain why you think avoiding high risk areas works micro, but fails macro?

So far, all you can offer is “it would fail because we refuse to do it”.  That doesn’t disprove the Roosevelt study or cdc at all.  The cdc just says, if we can manage to wear masks and avoid high risk areas, transmission will be lower.  That is still true.

Whether we are emotionally and financially capable of doing so is a different question entirely.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 4, 2021)

I am def that introverted weirdo. There are some crazy people in this world!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389678199391592452


Yep, that J&J pause didn't do us any good at all. I thought we had a president that "stayed out of the way" now.


Grace T. said:


> You aren't paying attention to Fauci.  Shame on you.  We are only slightly more than halfway over, in the bottom of the 6th inning.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389706051423965186


Hmmm. More bad information from an epidemiologist. This is much more like the end of a basketball game. The last 2 minutes take as long as any other 10 minutes of the game time.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That discussion is dead.  No matter what plan I suggest, you will assume no one complies.  There is not a covid containment plan which works despite no one following it.  Dead argument.
> 
> Back to macro/micro: can you explain why you think avoiding high risk areas works micro, but fails macro?
> 
> ...


If we aren’t emotionally or financially capable of doing it then why are we arguing about it?  Otherwise we are back to you preaching rather than offering prescriptive solutions, which is why you’ve declined to put forward one. It’s easier to preach the virtues of star command than to actually go out there and fight zog or zur or whatever the thing is.  It’s easier to cast aspersions on people (when you yourself failed) than to accept that there may not be many good solutions.  It’s easier to build your ideal Soviet  man than to deal with the messy reality of how people are and to make a cost benefit analysis.  The tough cost benefit analysis you keep saying you are willing to make but never get to.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If we aren’t emotionally or financially capable of doing it then why are we arguing about it?  Otherwise we are back to you preaching rather than offering prescriptive solutions, which is why you’ve declined to put forward one. It’s easier to preach the virtues of star command than to actually go out there and fight zog or zur or whatever the thing is.  It’s easier to cast aspersions on people (when you yourself failed) than to accept that there may not be many good solutions.  It’s easier to build your ideal Soviet  man than to deal with the messy reality of how people are and to make a cost benefit analysis.  The tough cost benefit analysis you keep saying you are willing to make but never get to.


Is it odd that he so readily accepts the idea of messy data but not the reality of messy people?


----------



## dad4 (May 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Is it odd that he so readily accepts the idea of messy data but not the reality of messy people?


Data is often better company.  

It more bugs me that so many of us don’t even seem to care enough to try.  We can look at the world, understand that covid is a problem, but then completely fall short on even attempting to do our part.  All kinds of completely lame rationalizations come out.  It’s easier to lie to ourselves than actually change our behavior.  

So we talk about how bad Fauci is.  Why?  Is he actually evil?  Is he deliberately trying to mislead us about a matter of national importance?  No, but he tells us things we don’t want to hear.   So we find a way to disbelieve.   After all, if we believed that restaurants were killing people, we’d have to stop going.

So we tell ourselves a story about how masks don’t work and restaurants don’t spread covid.  It’s a lie.  But, if we believe it, we can do what we want and not feel guilty.  So we do.


----------



## Grace T. (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Data is often better company.
> 
> It more bugs me that so many of us don’t even seem to care enough to try.  We can look at the world, understand that covid is a problem, but then completely fall short on even attempting to do our part.  All kinds of completely lame rationalizations come out.  It’s easier to lie to ourselves than actually change our behavior.
> 
> ...


Care. Evil. Disbelieve. Guilt. Man you’ve gone full preacher and are just oozing the words of religion.  

For most of us on team reality it’s not about feelings. It’s about making rational judgments not based in fear but calculating the cost/benefits given the limitations on what we are working with. It’s not that fauci is evil (anymore than trump or Biden are) but that he’s self-obsessed, ineffective or downright wrong in his messaging.   

Your first sentence is so sad...even if said in half jest....I say this even as a low extrovert that can appreciate both the is and es. It’s more sad than that scene where Jessie’s owner abandons her.  Childhood must have been so difficult for you.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Data is often better company.


Ha! Truth.



dad4 said:


> It more bugs me that so many of us don’t even seem to care enough to try.  We can look at the world, understand that covid is a problem, but then completely fall short on even attempting to do our part.  All kinds of completely lame rationalizations come out.  It’s easier to lie to ourselves than actually change our behavior.
> 
> So we talk about how bad Fauci is.  Why?  Is he actually evil?  Is he deliberately trying to mislead us about a matter of national importance?  No, but he tells us things we don’t want to hear.   So we find a way to disbelieve.   After all, if we believed that restaurants were killing people, we’d have to stop going.
> 
> So we tell ourselves a story about how masks don’t work and restaurants don’t spread covid.  It’s a lie.  But, if we believe it, we can do what we want and not feel guilty.  So we do.


It's not a switch where people change their behavior or they don't. Like most things in life, it's a dial. People have changed their behavior quite a bit, actually. Almost everyone did at first - quite dramatically. For many, it's not sustainable for various reasons and viruses punish any deviation from staying away from others. Again, look at how they respond to a single case in Australia.

I don't disbelieve. I stayed out of indoor areas for about a year until I got vaccinated. I think masks are better than not wearing masks when in close proximity to others but overrated in their ability to protect and a poor substitute for staying away from others. Eventually, people assess what they believe their risk is and behave accordingly.

I don't think Fauci is an evil guy. He apparently lied at first about masks, "for our own good'. Then he made some of the same mistakes you accuse others of in terms of "not seem to care enough to try". If anything, his behavior (and Newsome's) supports what Grace and I have been saying about what happens. People are messy. Also, his call on the J&J was probably a pretty bad choice as well, but not evil.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Pfizer is telling investors people will need to have the shot every 12 months starting with the elderly and people with underlying conditions since immunity seems to wane with time.  I dunno...we are struggling to hit 50% on the first shots let alone go back and remember to get a booster.....we aren’t getting to a place  where herd immunity makes things go away any time soon. 

Anecdotally have been seeing that a lot of the decliners are people who have had covid already.  No idea how many of the refusers are but even besties doctor told her to wait 90 days post covid. If they came out with better guidelines and research on the effect of vaccines post covid it might help with this group

Saw an interesting Twitter verse post. Humans are hard wired to believe in something greater than themselves.  Some people replaced this with the religion of covid, some with the religion of racism.  But now that the covid emergency is almost over, some people are wondering what they’ll fill that void with so they don’t really want it to be over.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> For many, it's not sustainable for various reasons and viruses punish any deviation from staying away from others. Again, look at how they respond to a single case in Australia.


For most it isn't sustainable. 

People have to work. People have to have places open where they can work. Kids need to be in school, Etc. Etc. 

You can shut something down for a couple of weeks. You cannot do it for a month or more. 

That is the reality.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ha! Truth.
> 
> 
> It's not a switch where people change their behavior or they don't. Like most things in life, it's a dial. People have changed their behavior quite a bit, actually. Almost everyone did at first - quite dramatically. For many, it's not sustainable for various reasons and viruses punish any deviation from staying away from others. Again, look at how they respond to a single case in Australia.
> ...


The J&J call was overcautious, but reasonable.

If the blood clot risk had turned out to be one in 10,000, keeping J&J would have done permanent damage to all of our vaccination efforts, not just covid.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Hmmm. More bad information from an epidemiologist. This is much more like the end of a basketball game. The last 2 minutes take as long as any other 10 minutes of the game time.


"Speaking with CNN host Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci continued pushing against any thoughts that the end of the coronavirus may be near, positing that America is only in "the bottom of the sixth" inning in its battle against the virus.
In baseball terms, the bottom of the sixth represents roughly two-thirds of the length of a typical baseball game, although if the score is tied, extra innings are added until one side wins...

...Fauci, late July 2020: "I don't think we need to go to lockdown again and shelter in place."

Fauci, October 2020: "I'm not going to tell you anything. I don't even know. It would be foolish to predict what is going to be better. The proof is in the pudding."

Fauci, mid-November 2020: "I was talking with my U.K. colleagues who are saying the U.K. is similar to where we are now, because each of our countries have that independent spirit. I can understand that, *but now is the time to do what you're told."

---*

"Months ago, Fauci et. al. all agreed that children *were at little or no risk of getting covid, of transmitting it, least of all dying from it. Now Fauci is demanding that all teens be vaccinated by the end of the year! Why?* They are no more danger of contracting it now than they were a year ago. There is no reason on earth for teens, children and infants to be vaccinated. Not one."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The J&J call was overcautious, but reasonable.
> 
> If the blood clot risk had turned out to be one in 10,000, keeping J&J would have done permanent damage to all of our vaccination efforts, not just covid.


Gee thanks Doc.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Pfizer is telling investors people will need to have the shot every 12 months starting with the elderly and people with underlying conditions since immunity seems to wane with time.  I dunno...we are struggling to hit 50% on the first shots let alone go back and remember to get a booster.....we aren’t getting to a place  where herd immunity makes things go away any time soon.
> 
> Anecdotally have been seeing that a lot of the decliners are people who have had covid already.  No idea how many of the refusers are but even besties doctor told her to wait 90 days post covid. If they came out with better guidelines and research on the effect of vaccines post covid it might help with this group
> 
> Saw an interesting Twitter verse post. Humans are hard wired to believe in something greater than themselves.  Some people replaced this with the religion of covid, some with the religion of racism.  But now that the covid emergency is almost over, some people are wondering what they’ll fill that void with so they don’t really want it to be over.


I just added to my Pfizer position.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Whoa......o.k. this is way outside my zone of comfort so don't know how to evaluate the source but it was reputable enough to get listed on both realclearhealth and realclearpolitics.  If you read to the end, it circles back to Fauci and his role in the outbreak. 









						Origin of Covid — Following the Clues
					

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted lives the world over for more than a year. Its death toll will soon reach three million people. Yet the origin of pandemic remains uncertain: the political agendas…




					nicholaswade.medium.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You actually got it wrong.  Your macro explanation simplifies to "it won't work because we refuse".
> 
> I've already granted that.  We are stuck with covid because the right wing here refuses to get with the program.  See, we agree.
> 
> ...


Oh so now you're on to externalities?  Welcome to the party Alice.  I love your analogies.  Selective bias much?  Not buying your bull shit.  Always find your post eloquent but selectively bias with collectivism masquerading as interventionism.  Dervish on.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Care. Evil. Disbelieve. Guilt. Man you’ve gone full preacher and are just oozing the words of religion.
> 
> For most of us on team reality it’s not about feelings. It’s about making rational judgments not based in fear but calculating the cost/benefits given the limitations on what we are working with. It’s not that fauci is evil (anymore than trump or Biden are) but that he’s self-obsessed, ineffective or downright wrong in his messaging.
> 
> Your first sentence is so sad...even if said in half jest....I say this even as a low extrovert that can appreciate both the is and es. It’s more sad than that scene where Jessie’s owner abandons her.  Childhood must have been so difficult for you.


Religion is meant to give guidance towards ethical behavior in times of crisis.   If you're thinking about what it means to be a good person, you're going to share some vocabulary with your preacher.  

Except, of course, if you prefer a preacher who tends his flock by building a crystal palace and buying himself designer clothes.  Those exist, too.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

1. Even Fauci doesn't seem to fully agree with the CDC camp guidelines
2. Fauci is really horrible at the public relations aspect of his job.  Here he manages to neither appease Savannah nor defend the CDC guidelines.
3. To make matters worse, he yuks it up when Savannah mentions the names of her 2 kids.  Not a good look.
4. The CDC guidelines really are horrible and they contradict the guidance on masks and outdoor activities. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389927079366569993


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Religion is meant to give guidance towards ethical behavior in times of crisis.   If you're thinking about what it means to be a good person, you're going to share some vocabulary with your preacher.
> 
> Except, of course, if you prefer a preacher who tends his flock by building a crystal palace and buying himself designer clothes.  Those exist, too.


Wow you've actually admitted it.  Color me shocked.

The disconnect all along is that you've been preaching morality, while the rest of us having been discussing solutions in the real world subject to real world limitations.  It clarifies a lot.  You are the old timey preacher railing on the sins of alcoholism....not the politician trying to decide what to do about it....or the federal agent that actually has to go out and enforce Prohibition.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If we aren’t emotionally or financially capable of doing it then why are we arguing about it?  Otherwise we are back to you preaching rather than offering prescriptive solutions, which is why you’ve declined to put forward one. It’s easier to preach the virtues of star command than to actually go out there and fight zog or zur or whatever the thing is.  It’s easier to cast aspersions on people (when you yourself failed) than to accept that there may not be many good solutions.  It’s easier to build your ideal Soviet  man than to deal with the messy reality of how people are and to make a cost benefit analysis.  The tough cost benefit analysis you keep saying you are willing to make but never get to.


Dad4 has cast out history to focus only on stats.  He would have served Hitler well.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ha! Truth.
> 
> 
> It's not a switch where people change their behavior or they don't. Like most things in life, it's a dial. People have changed their behavior quite a bit, actually. Almost everyone did at first - quite dramatically. For many, it's not sustainable for various reasons and viruses punish any deviation from staying away from others. Again, look at how they respond to a single case in Australia.
> ...


You know what Dad4 has also left out?  Virus behavior.  Why is that?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Religion is meant to give guidance towards ethical behavior in times of crisis.


False.  Stick to stats.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Data is often better company.


Yah...because data doesn’t think for itself or argue when it’s mistreated/misused.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Yah...because data doesn’t think for itself or argue when it’s mistreated/misused.


Mic drop.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The J&J call was overcautious, but reasonable.
> 
> If the blood clot risk had turned out to be one in 10,000, keeping J&J would have done permanent damage to all of our vaccination efforts, not just covid.


They should have issued an advisory. I think that would have been reasonable enough. You do realize that many more will die because of the pause - assuming you believe that the vaccines save lives - and I do.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow you've actually admitted it.  Color me shocked.
> 
> The disconnect all along is that you've been preaching morality, while the rest of us having been discussing solutions in the real world subject to real world limitations.  It clarifies a lot.  You are the old timey preacher railing on the sins of alcoholism....not the politician trying to decide what to do about it....or the federal agent that actually has to go out and enforce Prohibition.


Discussing solutions?

No you haven't.  The past year you have been outright dismissive of every single proposal for things we can do to reduce the severity of the pandemic.

Masks?  Don't help much.  
Close high risk places?  It's an unsustainable lockdown. 
Socialize outside instead of inside?  Well, I haven't heard of anywhere that has done it.
Vaccines?  I heard somewhere that the side effects are awful. 

Every single proposal for a way to help, you've found some excuse to be on the other side.  You can't suddenly undo all that and say you've been looking for solutions.  You've been opposing solutions the whole time.


----------



## watfly (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Data is often better company.
> 
> It more bugs me that so many of us don’t even seem to care enough to try.  We can look at the world, understand that covid is a problem, but then completely fall short on even attempting to do our part.  All kinds of completely lame rationalizations come out.  It’s easier to lie to ourselves than actually change our behavior.
> 
> ...


In regards to Fauci, I was the last one to jump on the "Fauci is an idiot" bandwagon as Grace can attest to.  At the beginning I was a fan but at some point he completely jumped the shark.  His mixed messaging and constant agreement with whomever was interviewing him was irresponsible.  Combine that with Trump and Biden's mixed messaging and you have a federal response, other than Operation Warpspeed, that fell woefully short.  The federal government kept getting in its own way and the way of States rights to govern.

Now what I'm about to say has been said ad nauseum in many ways but here goes again.  Your definition of "care" is incredibly narrow.   Caring goes way beyond not spreading the virus.  Also who has not cared enough to try?  Your definition of "caring" is to have citizens hide from the virus.  Based upon their comments, I believe everyone on "team virus" (per you) or "team reality" (per Grace) has tried, in some cases to a great extent.  The lengths our company has gone to to protect our employees from Covid is extensive.  But our caring didn't stop at Covid.  We also continued to pay our employees 100% despite the fact in a lot of cases they were only working 50%.  We had the luxury to do so, but most small businesses, which should have never been shutdown, didn't; despite the fact they were willing to adjust and make major innovative changes to operate safer.  Now those same small businesses can't get there employees back because our government continues to incentivize them not to go back to work.  We're creating another generation of citizens dependent on the government.

Your perspective is shaped by the fact your livelihood is dependent on the government.  You have little to no risk.  Your checks kept coming whether you worked or not.  It's virtually impossible for a teacher to get fired in California.  You and Fauci live in an academic bubble, where you can control variables and math always has a correct answer.  You also don't have to worry about providing for any employees.  Small business and its employees have no such luxury.  In fact, government is the biggest obstacle to small business.  Not only do owners lose their income if the government shuts down their business, but most owners feel a strong financial responsibility to their employees.  You can hide from the virus, because the government allows you to do so.  Most people can not, try standing in their shoes, instead of blaming them for spreading the virus.

On its face, the left's desire to provide a safety net is virtuous; however, its incredibly misguided.  It is destroying our "pioneer spirit", right to self determination and our self reliance which are principles that our Country was founded on.  It is also destroying the "risk vs. return" equation. America has a lot of warts, but it still should be the "Land of Opportunity" not the "Land of Guaranteed Basic Income".


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Discussing solutions?
> 
> No you haven't.  The past year you have been outright dismissive of every single proposal for things we can do to reduce the severity of the pandemic.
> 
> ...


Proposals need to be actually effective. 

Masks don't work when worn properly. Watching how people actually use masks makes the hope that they can moderate anything laughable. 

Close high risk places? You cannot stop people from making a living. And that is why outside of a couple week shutdown this idea is laughable. 

Socialize outside instead of inside? If you want to hang out on your lawn so be it. But what you refer to again is biz, school, etc. The vast vast majority of places to actually run require people inside. Stores, restaurants, schools, you name it. 

Vaccines? Perfect. We have those now. Lets move on rather shortly. The vast VAST majority of people who died are rather old and most already were heading to the exit so to speak. Now 80% or so of these people are vaccinated and presumably when the need for boosters come up...will vaccinate at the same rate. The other age groups? Many are getting vaccinated BUT in the high risk groups in the younger age groups they are getting vaccinated at a high rate. 

What does that add up to? Covid deaths will fall dramatically. We can stop playing safety theater and move on with our lives. 

If we pretend or listen to those who want to try to get the virus to go away altogether or get down to zero deaths, we are going to be stuck in the twilight zone forever. 

With the vaccines, deaths will fall into the range of a bad flu year. You know the stuff we have lived through off and on for decades without so much as batting an eye.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> In regards to Fauci, I was the last one to jump on the "Fauci is an idiot" bandwagon as Grace can attest to.  At the beginning I was a fan but at some point he completely jumped the shark.  His mixed messaging and constant agreement with whomever was interviewing him was irresponsible.  Combine that with Trump and Biden's mixed messaging and you have a federal response, other than Operation Warpspeed, that fell woefully short.  The federal government kept getting in its own way and the way of States rights to govern.
> 
> Now what I'm about to say has been said ad nauseum in many ways but here goes again.  Your definition of "care" is incredibly narrow.   Caring goes way beyond not spreading the virus.  Also who has not cared enough to try?  Your definition of "caring" is to have citizens hide from the virus.  Based upon their comments, I believe everyone on "team virus" (per you) or "team reality" (per Grace) has tried, in some cases to a great extent.  The lengths our company has gone to to protect our employees from Covid is extensive.  But our caring didn't stop at Covid.  We also continued to pay our employees 100% despite the fact in a lot of cases they were only working 50%.  We had the luxury to do so, but most small businesses, which should have never been shutdown, didn't; despite the fact they were willing to adjust and make major innovative changes to operate safer.  Now those same small businesses can't get there employees back because our government continues to incentivize them not to go back to work.  We're creating another generation of citizens dependent on the government.
> 
> ...


Well said!

OK. You are done for the day. 

Nothing else you post today can top that one.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Discussing solutions?
> 
> No you haven't.  The past year you have been outright dismissive of every single proposal for things we can do to reduce the severity of the pandemic.
> 
> ...


Err....again you jump to the worst conclusions.  You are right I don't think masks help much....I just think we need to be honest with folks about their impact.  Same with the vaccines.  I haven't said don't get one....but I believe people are adults and need to make their own well informed choices.

I've told you also repeatedly what my preferred policy solution would have been, which is much more than you've been willing to do.  I would have shut the border earlier and much more robustly than Trump and much more greatly restricted airtravel.  I think indoor mask mandates were the right thing to do, and I would have had a mask production program, but also would have exempted children 10 and under and the severely handicapped and would have been honest about what they did.  I would have restricted the use of lockdowns only to the beginning of surges, and then gone more robustly than California did, as well as over the summer 2020 built surge capacity to the extent possible.  I wouldn't have shut schools or outdoor sports except paused them during the worst of the peaks.  I would have harden the nursing homes.  I'd probably do a lottery with cash prize to encourage vaccination.  I would have fired Fauci.  Essentially, I would have done Florida lite.

I've been talking policy, you've been talking morality, which is why we talk past each other.  Funny I can see that and you can't.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Err....again you jump to the worst conclusions.  You are right I don't think masks help much....I just think we need to be honest with folks about their impact.  Same with the vaccines.  I haven't said don't get one....but I believe people are adults and need to make their own well informed choices.
> 
> I've told you also repeatedly what my preferred policy solution would have been, which is much more than you've been willing to do.  I would have shut the border earlier and much more robustly than Trump and much more greatly restricted airtravel.  I think indoor mask mandates were the right thing to do, and I would have had a mask production program, but also would have exempted children 10 and under and the severely handicapped and would have been honest about what they did.  I would have restricted the use of lockdowns only to the beginning of surges, and then gone more robustly than California did, as well as over the summer 2020 built surge capacity to the extent possible.  I wouldn't have shut schools or outdoor sports except paused them during the worst of the peaks.  I would have harden the nursing homes.  I'd probably do a lottery with cash prize to encourage vaccination.  I would have fired Fauci.  Essentially, I would have done Florida lite.
> 
> I've been talking policy, you've been talking morality, which is why we talk past each other.  Funny I can see that and you can't.


p.s. you know where my prescribed policy solutions most closely align (except for the border part)...Germany!.....hah the nation you touted at the beginning and then tut tutted for opening indoor dining.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well it’s awfully hard to do first hand unless I’m dead, the attending physician or the entry clerk.


And those people say it’s bs.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Proposals need to be actually effective.


So much virtue signaling going on. In SC County, we have to fill out a questionnaire every morning before attending training or games with questions related to potential COVID exposure or general illness. How much good these things actually do? I'd guess about as much as wearing a mask while out for a walk, but someone feels good about it or it wouldn't be done.


----------



## watfly (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well said!
> 
> OK. You are done for the day.
> 
> Nothing else you post today can top that one.


I appreciate the compliment but I'm not doing much more than...


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> I appreciate the compliment but I'm not doing much more than...
> 
> View attachment 10696


There is no dead horse for a preacher.  There's only our souls and the need to avoid the hellfire.

Until recently, I didn't understand that's what was happening here (others are probably quicker than me on interpersonal dynamics).  Today it's been confirmed.









						Elmo Rise
					

Elmo Rise, also known as Hellmo, is a series of images of a crudely designed Elmo from the children’s television series Sesame Street.




					knowyourmeme.com


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> So much virtue signaling going on. In SC County, we have to fill out a questionnaire every morning before attending training or games with questions related to potential COVID exposure or general illness. How much good these things actually do? I'd guess about as much as wearing a mask while out for a walk, but someone feels good about it or it wouldn't be done.


We have to fill out the forms before every school day and every practice day, too.

I don’t see it as virtue signaling.  It’s just reminding ourselves that we should not go near others if we are feeling not quite well.  I’ve found it pointless about 100 times, and useful once.  I think that means it worked as designed.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Err....again you jump to the worst conclusions.  You are right I don't think masks help much....I just think we need to be honest with folks about their impact.  Same with the vaccines.  I haven't said don't get one....but I believe people are adults and need to make their own well informed choices.
> 
> I've told you also repeatedly what my preferred policy solution would have been, which is much more than you've been willing to do.  I would have shut the border earlier and much more robustly than Trump and much more greatly restricted airtravel.  I think indoor mask mandates were the right thing to do, and I would have had a mask production program, but also would have exempted children 10 and under and the severely handicapped and would have been honest about what they did.  I would have restricted the use of lockdowns only to the beginning of surges, and then gone more robustly than California did, as well as over the summer 2020 built surge capacity to the extent possible.  I wouldn't have shut schools or outdoor sports except paused them during the worst of the peaks.  I would have harden the nursing homes.  I'd probably do a lottery with cash prize to encourage vaccination.  I would have fired Fauci.  Essentially, I would have done Florida lite.
> 
> I've been talking policy, you've been talking morality, which is why we talk past each other.  Funny I can see that and you can't.


So, you support indoor mask mandates, yet you make no less than 50 posts about how masks and mask mandates don’t work?

Pro tip for advocates: if you support a policy, don’t spend lots of time convincing people it won’t work.


----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Masks don't work when worn properly.


That's not true.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, you support indoor mask mandates, yet you make no less than 50 posts about how masks and mask mandates don’t work?
> 
> Pro tip for advocates: if you support a policy, don’t spend lots of time convincing people it won’t work.


Ah, but there's where you misunderstand me.  Just as I misunderstood that you weren't really a policy advocate, you were a preacher talking about morality, you mistake me for an advocate.  I'm not an advocate.  I'm a truth seeker because the truth is what interests me, not policy, and especially not morality.  My only advocacy has been that people should swallow the red pill and face the reality rather than live in ignorance in the blue pill, because that's what Enlightenment though (which is the highest achievement in human thought processes) has taught us.

So yes, I believe in an indoor mask mandate, subject to the Constitutional right of the states to determine it, subject to the exclusions I listed above, and with the caveat that the government should tell people how much masks really can achieve (rather than lull than into a false sense of security)....treat em like adults, not children.


----------



## watfly (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We have to fill out the forms before every school day and every practice day, too.
> 
> I don’t see it as virtue signaling.  It’s just reminding ourselves that we should not go near others if we are feeling not quite well.  I’ve found it pointless about 100 times, and useful once.  I think that means it worked as designed.


Only a bureaucrat would think that was an effective policy.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 5, 2021)

Like our long on going wars that have basically gone on since the Korean War (see: Eisenhower speech on the military industrial complex, another conversation) where only a small percentage of people are directly effected, we are in a war against a virus. And like with a military war there are protests, conspiracy theories and people living and dying amongst the horror. Those fighting the war (in this case doctors and nurses) need all the help they can get. And just like with a military war there are many that choose to ignore the battle, the horror, the suffering of others as they simply wish to not have their lives disturbed. There are also those that empathize and try to do what they can to help the effort. Which are you?


----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> And those people say it’s bs.


...and when pressed for confirmation, she repeated those same evasions she used the last time.

When someone suggests that I should do the search for confirmation of her assertion, my BS alert goes off.


----------



## watfly (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We have to fill out the forms before every school day and every practice day, too.
> 
> I don’t see it as virtue signaling.  It’s just reminding ourselves that we should not go near others if we are feeling not quite well.  I’ve found it pointless about 100 times, and useful once.  I think that means it worked as designed.


Your a different breed Dad4, because I don't know that many think that way.  I do have to admire your diligence and faith though.

First off, I have the world's shittiest short term memory but even I don't need to be reminded 100 days in a row, 3-5 days in a row maybe, but not 100.  Somewhere between the 5th and 10th day most people are going to be like WhyTF am I filling this form out again and will simply take it less seriously which defeats the purpose.  I think most want substantive policies not token ones.


----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> Your a different breed Dad4, because I don't know that many think that way.  I do have to admire your diligence and faith though.
> 
> First off, I have the world's shittiest short term memory but even I don't need to be reminded 100 days in a row, 3-5 days in a row maybe, but not 100.  Somewhere between the 5th and 10th day most people are going to be like WhyTF am I filling this form out again and will simply take it less seriously which defeats the purpose.  I think most want substantive policies not token ones.


When you "take it less seriously", does that mean you don't fill it out, or does that mean you deliberately fill it out incorrectly?


----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nope.  You are just reading more into it than there is.  It's no grand conspiracy.  There's always a question of how to count.  The collective decision was just made early on to err on the side of overcounting rather than undercounting, which is why you get weird circumstances like the 20 something driver.  When you get down to the numbers we are at now, it makes a difference.


Not a grand conspiracy, just a collective decision?

The Reuters article you didn't read clearly states that the higher payment to health providers is paid not when the patient dies, but whenever the patient is "provided treatment".  The obvious reason for the difference is the higher cost of treating patients confirmed to have covid -- additional PPE for the staff, proper training, isolation, etc.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ah, but there's where you misunderstand me.  Just as I misunderstood that you weren't really a policy advocate, you were a preacher talking about morality, you mistake me for an advocate.  I'm not an advocate.  I'm a truth seeker because the truth is what interests me, not policy, and especially not morality.  My only advocacy has been that people should swallow the red pill and face the reality rather than live in ignorance in the blue pill, because that's what Enlightenment though (which is the highest achievement in human thought processes) has taught us.
> 
> So yes, I believe in an indoor mask mandate, subject to the Constitutional right of the states to determine it, subject to the exclusions I listed above, and with the caveat that the government should tell people how much masks really can achieve (rather than lull than into a false sense of security)....treat em like adults, not children.


I can’t say I’m surprised that all the weasel words come out as soon as it’s time to actually support the policy.

If you supported an indoor mask mandate, you would not phrase it like you do.

Clear eyed supporters of masks are the people who say things like “it is a small thing we can do to help,“ or “the mask alone is not enough, you still need to avoid indoor spaces and crowds.”.   

That’s not you.  You are one of the ones who says “Yes, I support masks.  Just remember that they don’t really work, and all the cdc data to support them is fake.”.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389980599608385538


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can’t say I’m surprised that all the weasel words come out as soon as it’s time to actually support the policy.
> 
> If you supported an indoor mask mandate, you would not phrase it like you do.
> 
> ...


Your math is great but your reasoning skills are always in short supply.

Again, that's because you misunderstand what I'm all about just as I misunderstood you were preaching instead of advocating for a particular policy.  I'm not a supporter of masks.  I'm not an opponent of masks.  I'm a truth seeker that wants to get to the truth of what it is masks can and can't do (I'm more scientific that way than you are because science cares about getting to the truth, not about being right or moral).  But what I do have a problem with is when the ministry of truth lies to the public by saying things like "masks are better than vaccines" or "masks can control the spread".  I care about truth, not the stupid mask policy so long as no one (whether anti masker or pro masker) is lying about it.  Had Desert Hound come out and said masks do absolutely nothing, he and I would have tangled, and like I've told espola before, whether masks "work" depends in part on what your definition of "work" is.  Your definition has consistently oversold it, which doesn't negate the policy, but does make you just flat out wrong.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

I didn't know the Carters were hobbits. 

Strange angle or wrong lens. Either way it makes for a strange looking photo.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can’t say I’m surprised that all the weasel words come out as soon as it’s time to actually support the policy.
> 
> If you supported an indoor mask mandate, you would not phrase it like you do.
> 
> ...


"cleared eyed supporters"....snort....more religion from you....you have to recite the creed faithfully and no deviation will be tolerated.  BTW, it's why religions hate apostates more than they hate nonbelievers.  You are no exception.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

The CDC's Guidance for Summer Camps Is Insane
					

"Masking kids at camp outdoors is simply virtue signaling."




					reason.com


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The CDC's Guidance for Summer Camps Is Insane
> 
> 
> "Masking kids at camp outdoors is simply virtue signaling."
> ...


I had been considering sending kiddo back to two rivers soccer camp.  The fact they are implementing these outdoor guidance made me decide not to, and he came to the same conclusion when we discussed it.  The idea of spending an entire week in a mask just was too much for him.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I had been considering sending kiddo back to two rivers soccer camp.  The fact they are implementing these outdoor guidance made me decide not to, and he came to the same conclusion when we discussed it.  The idea of spending an entire week in a mask just was too much for him.


p.s. ....a distinction has to be drawn between sleep away and day camps.  For day camps the guidance is especially stupid, if the day camp is taking place outside.  For sleep away camps I just don't see how we can get to a place where it's 100% safe.  There hasn't been a single camp my kids have attended where one of them hasn't come down with something.  Either we accept that there will be outbreaks or we don't and the CDC is trying to thread a needle here which results in just security theatre rather than making a tough recommendation.  The reality is if they sleep in the same room together you ain't going to control the masks which are less than worthless in those conditions.  So what to do?  You could pod and require COVID testing 48 hours before checking in, wellness screenings by the camp nurse upon arrival, as well as move sleep outdoors instead of in cabins....but even with that there will be outbreaks.  Be honest about it, treat people like grownups, have them make their own decisions.


----------



## watfly (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can’t say I’m surprised that all the weasel words come out as soon as it’s time to actually support the policy.
> 
> If you supported an indoor mask mandate, you would not phrase it like you do.
> 
> ...





Grace T. said:


> Your math is great but your reasoning skills are always in short supply.
> 
> Again, that's because you misunderstand what I'm all about just as I misunderstood you were preaching instead of advocating for a particular policy.  I'm not a supporter of masks.  I'm not an opponent of masks.  I'm a truth seeker that wants to get to the truth of what it is masks can and can't do (I'm more scientific that way than you are because science cares about getting to the truth, not about being right or moral).  But what I do have a problem with is when the ministry of truth lies to the public by saying things like "masks are better than vaccines" or "masks can control the spread".  I care about truth, not the stupid mask policy so long as no one (whether anti masker or pro masker) is lying about it.  Had Desert Hound come out and said masks do absolutely nothing, he and I would have tangled, and like I've told espola before, whether masks "work" depends in part on what your definition of "work" is.  Your definition has consistently oversold it, which doesn't negate the policy, but does make you just flat out wrong.


Can't we all just stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable, convincing and consensus evidence either way that masks work, or don't work, in preventing the spread of the disease?  It seems to me if both sides are being intellectually honest that we would agree to that fact.  I'll stipulate... Dad4 can you stipulate without a "yeah, but" argument?  I'm pretty sure I know Grace's answer.

Not saying that we can't debate how we develop policy based on that fact, but it seems fair that we acknowledge that we don't know either way whether masks are effective, or not.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 5, 2021)

At least we're getting a new buzzword out of this shit show. If I took a shot every time I read "Virtue signaling", well... I'd be 21 again.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "cleared eyed supporters"....snort....more religion from you....you have to recite the creed faithfully and no deviation will be tolerated.  BTW, it's why religions hate apostates more than they hate nonbelievers.  You are no exception.


No.  I am just calling your bull shit when you say you have always supported a policy you have spent 13 months opposing.

This is not some subtle question of how to write the details on a mask mandate law.

You post dozens of times claiming that masks don’t really work.  Just yesterday you were claiming that the cdc data supporting them is no better than what you get from a twitter troll.   Now you want to say that you have always supported making them mandatory.

If you want to change your mind on something, then grow enough of a spine to say so.  But stop trying to have it both ways, where you support Texas repealing their indoor mask mandate, then six weeks later claim that you think indoor mask mandates are a good idea.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No.  I am just calling your bull shit when you say you have always supported a policy you have spent 13 months opposing.
> 
> This is not some subtle question of how to write the details on a mask mandate law.
> 
> ...


Now you are just a damn liar and I really resent that, especially coming from you given your record of hypocrisy.  I have always said I supported an indoor mask mandate subject to the caveats up above.  Not the first time I've written it in response to your question.  I just think you are damn wrong about what you think they can do and you and your kind have done a great disservice to people for overselling them.

I know what my position is and has been and don't need someone like you casting aspersions or lying about it so STFU Buzz.

They always come after the apostates the hardest.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> Can't we all just stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable, convincing and consensus evidence either way that masks work, or don't work, in preventing the spread of the disease?  It seems to me if both sides are being intellectually honest that we would agree to that fact.  I'll stipulate... Dad4 can you stipulate without a "yeah, but" argument?  I'm pretty sure I know Grace's answer.
> 
> Not saying that we can't debate how we develop policy based on that fact, but it seems fair that we acknowledge that we don't know either way whether masks are effective, or not.


Yes.  I'd even go so far as to say they probably do, especially on a micro analysis level, just not very much, as seen by the real world evidence.


----------



## watfly (May 5, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> At least we're getting a new buzzword out of this shit show. If I took a shot every time I read "Virtue signaling", well... I'd be 21 again.


Don't forget, "Cohort" and "New Normal"

Not a buzzword, but my kids call me out for saying "arbitrary" all the time.  I've said it x times more in the last year than I have my previous 54 years.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They always come after the apostates the hardest.


"I don't think there is a lack of diversity of thought, it's that we segregate into groups where there is conformity of thought. Then we burn the witches."


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)




----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Your math is great but your reasoning skills are always in short supply.
> 
> Again, that's because you misunderstand what I'm all about just as I misunderstood you were preaching instead of advocating for a particular policy.  I'm not a supporter of masks.  I'm not an opponent of masks.  I'm a truth seeker that wants to get to the truth of what it is masks can and can't do (I'm more scientific that way than you are because science cares about getting to the truth, not about being right or moral).  But what I do have a problem with is when the ministry of truth lies to the public by saying things like "masks are better than vaccines" or "masks can control the spread".  I care about truth, not the stupid mask policy so long as no one (whether anti masker or pro masker) is lying about it.  Had Desert Hound come out and said masks do absolutely nothing, he and I would have tangled, and like I've told espola before, whether masks "work" depends in part on what your definition of "work" is.  Your definition has consistently oversold it, which doesn't negate the policy, but does make you just flat out wrong.


You're a seeker of truth, but the mask policy is stupid.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

espola said:


> You're a seeker of truth, but the mask policy is stupid.


outdoors yes stupid.


----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 10698


Along the way, they use cocaine to overcome their opium overdose.


----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> outdoors yes stupid.


You don't exhale when you are outdoors?


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

espola said:


> You don't exhale when you are outdoors?


One of your more idiotic statements.


----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> Can't we all just stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable, convincing and consensus evidence either way that masks work, or don't work, in preventing the spread of the disease?  It seems to me if both sides are being intellectually honest that we would agree to that fact.  I'll stipulate... Dad4 can you stipulate without a "yeah, but" argument?  I'm pretty sure I know Grace's answer.
> 
> Not saying that we can't debate how we develop policy based on that fact, but it seems fair that we acknowledge that we don't know either way whether masks are effective, or not.


Why would anyone "stipulate" to an obvious falsehood?


----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> One of your more idiotic statements.


Just responding in kind.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "I don't think there is a lack of diversity of thought, it's that we segregate into groups where there is conformity of thought. Then we burn the witches."


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> Can't we all just stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable, convincing and consensus evidence either way that masks work, or don't work, in preventing the spread of the disease?  It seems to me if both sides are being intellectually honest that we would agree to that fact.  I'll stipulate... Dad4 can you stipulate without a "yeah, but" argument?  I'm pretty sure I know Grace's answer.
> 
> Not saying that we can't debate how we develop policy based on that fact, but it seems fair that we acknowledge that we don't know either way whether masks are effective, or not.


No such agreement from me.  I find the lab tests and cdc data very convincing- especially if you are asking about direct person to person transmission.  The mask redirects my breath up, and away from you.  The direct risk from me to you has been significantly reduced.

If you are asking about whether wearing a mask helps with long term indirect indoor exposure, that one is less convincing.   Also less effective, at least for the kinds of mask most people wear.  Less effective also means harder to measure.  You get things like the Dutch study- expected reduction is 10-15%, but the number of participants is too small to be sure.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

espola said:


> You're a seeker of truth, but the mask policy is stupid.


Wrong.  The people that made the policy are stupid.  Is what it is.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Like our long on going wars that have basically gone on since the Korean War (see: Eisenhower speech on the military industrial complex, another conversation) where only a small percentage of people are directly effected, we are in a war against a virus. And like with a military war there are protests, conspiracy theories and people living and dying amongst the horror. Those fighting the war (in this case doctors and nurses) need all the help they can get. And just like with a military war there are many that choose to ignore the battle, the horror, the suffering of others as they simply wish to not have their lives disturbed. There are also those that empathize and try to do what they can to help the effort. Which are you?


Virus's have served us well.  Without a virus, no placenta.  No Husker Du.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


>


Loved those guys. 

One of the best Monty Python related projects is the movie Jabberwocky.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No such agreement from me.  I find the lab tests and cdc data very convincing- especially if you are asking about direct person to person transmission.  The mask redirects my breath up, and away from you.  The direct risk from me to you has been significantly reduced.
> 
> If you are asking about whether wearing a mask helps with long term indirect indoor exposure, that one is less convincing.   Also less effective, at least for the kinds of mask most people wear.  Less effective also means harder to measure.  You get things like the Dutch study- expected reduction is 10-15%, but the number of participants is too small to be sure.





watfly said:


> Can't we all just stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable, convincing and consensus evidence either way that masks work, or don't work, in preventing the spread of the disease?  It seems to me if both sides are being intellectually honest that we would agree to that fact.  I'll stipulate... Dad4 can you stipulate without a "yeah, but" argument?  I'm pretty sure I know Grace's answer.
> 
> Not saying that we can't debate how we develop policy based on that fact, but it seems fair that we acknowledge that we don't know either way whether masks are effective, or not.


We actually have moved him on the issue.  Long term indoor exposure, the type of mask people wear, transmission in the home, maybe even kids and outdoors.  While he likes to suck on that blue pill, unlike others he doesn't swallow it whole.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 5, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Without a virus, no placenta.  No Husker Du.


It makes sense that viruses are responsible for multi-aliased, misanthropic trolls.


----------



## watfly (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No such agreement from me.  I find the lab tests and cdc data very convincing- especially if you are asking about direct person to person transmission.  The mask redirects my breath up, and away from you.  The direct risk from me to you has been significantly reduced.
> 
> If you are asking about whether wearing a mask helps with long term indirect indoor exposure, that one is less convincing.   Also less effective, at least for the kinds of mask most people wear.  Less effective also means harder to measure.  You get things like the Dutch study- expected reduction is 10-15%, but the number of participants is too small to be sure.


You obviously don't understand the difference between cherry picking and scientific consensus.  I'm glad you find those particular studies convincing; however, its hardly a consensus that masks are effective against the spread of Covid.  Even the CDC only says "studies show that masks reduce the spray of droplets when worn over the nose and mouth."  They make no conclusions about whether it is effective against spreading the virus although they cite some anecdotal studies that they may work.  These are correlation studies and not causation studies.  Keep in mind two things, 1) prior to Covid, the consensus was that masks didn't work for the general public against viruses and 2) the studies don't show that masks are 100% effective against "spray".  Even the FDA says "Masks *may* help prevent people who have COVID-19 from spreading the virus to others."

That having been said, I believe that masks may have some level of effectiveness against Covid and my suspicion is that its likely in the area of viral load.  So we have a dilemma.  Which is more dangerous? My openly questioning mask effectiveness, or you openly drinking the mask kool-aid.  My attitude could undermine the use of masks, your attitude could make masks falsely look like a panacea (like masks are better than vaccines).  I prefer a honest discussion about masks.  I also don't want anyone who thinks they may have symptoms or know they are sick going out in public thinking a mask will protect others.  They should stay home.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We actually have moved him on the issue.  Long term indoor exposure, the type of mask people wear, transmission in the home, maybe even kids and outdoors.  While he likes to suck on that blue pill, unlike others he doesn't swallow it whole.


When a series of people make a solid point, you're supposed to reconsider your previous position.  If you don't, there's no point in talking about these issues.

Same as Grace eventually admitted that masks have a role in reducing transmission.  

I'm just willing to give credit.  Watfly on outdoor spaces and Grace on the difference between home and non-home exposures.

Duration of exposure goes to no one.  Prior knowledge.   Credit goes to the old saying, "the poison is in the dose.". 

All moot soon, at least locally.  Most of the blue pill areas are getting themselves vaccinated, and won't see many more cases.   Dropping by 10% or so per week, with vax rates above 50% and rising.

Red pill areas are more reluctant/stubborn.  They've got several months to fix it, though they'll lose some people while they figure it out.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I find the lab tests and cdc data very convincing


And yet you constantly ignore this one.









						Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures
					

Pandemic Influenza—Personal Protective Measures




					wwwnc.cdc.gov


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> When a series of people make a solid point, you're supposed to reconsider your previous position.  If you don't, there's no point in talking about these issues.
> 
> Same as Grace eventually admitted that masks have a role in reducing transmission.
> 
> ...


I decline to take any credit whatsoever.  I'm just happy you've moved.

As for me, if you look back through my posts, I've (subject to the restrictions previously said) always been in favor of an indoor mask mandate.  You might also like to know that because I've gotten so many colds on planes, I wholeheartedly embraced the practice of wearing a mask on a plane and would welcome that practice to continue....that contradicts the idea that I don't think they do anything....I just don't think they do much (particularly on an airplane and particularly if someone sick sits right next to you).  I haven't moved on this and have always been in the same place on them from the beginning (even when Fauci was saying no you don't need masks I said BS and bought a carton of N95s).


----------



## N00B (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> When a series of people make a solid point, you're supposed to reconsider your previous position.  If you don't, there's no point in talking about these issues.
> 
> Same as Grace eventually admitted that masks have a role in reducing transmission.
> 
> ...


I’m not a fan of red vs blue pill analogies as it brings politics front and center.  That said, I do believe mask effectiveness is the externality you asked for on masks+distance studies.  If one thinks masks are effective they are more likely to participate in risky activities like indoor gatherings (it’s human behavior to dismiss risks that are assumed to be mitigated).  Hearing that masks ‘may be effective’ in those settings would cause more hesitation to engage in those activities and is the greatest public failing I see in this debate when it comes to mandates etc.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I decline to take any credit whatsoever.  I'm just happy you've moved.
> 
> As for me, if you look back through my posts, I've (subject to the restrictions previously said) always been in favor of an indoor mask mandate.  You might also like to know that because I've gotten so many colds on planes, I wholeheartedly embraced the practice of wearing a mask on a plane and would welcome that practice to continue....that contradicts the idea that I don't think they do anything....I just don't think they do much (particularly on an airplane and particularly if someone sick sits right next to you).  I haven't moved on this and have always been in the same place on them from the beginning (even when Fauci was saying no you don't need masks I said BS and bought a carton of N95s).


What do you mean by "don't help much"?

The plain English meaning of that phrase is completely at odds with "and should be mandatory".


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> I’m not a fan of red vs blue pill analogies as it brings politics front and center.  That said, I do believe mask effectiveness is the externality you asked for on masks+distance studies.  If one thinks masks are effective they are more likely to participate in risky activities like indoor gatherings (it’s human behavior to dismiss risks that are assumed to be mitigated).  Hearing that masks ‘may be effective’ in those settings would cause more hesitation to engage in those activities and is the greatest public failing I see in this debate when it comes to mandates etc.


The key is understanding that "effective" is not boolean, or even uniform.

Masks seem to reduce your ability to receive covid by about 10%.  They also reduce your ability to send covid by 50 to 70%.

So, should I go indoors because my mask protects me?  No.  90% of the risk to me is still there.

Should I go indoors because I know others wear masks?  Not really.  30 to 50% of the risk is still there.

If I am stuck being indoors, should I wear a mask?  Yes, because the mask eliminates more than half of the risk from me to other people.  (Even though the risk to me is still quite high.)


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What do you mean by "don't help much"?
> 
> The plain English meaning of that phrase is completely at odds with "and should be mandatory".


I know you are all into math but didn't think you completely ignored your English classes.  The opposite of much is a little...not none.  From a cost benefit analysis....if the little help > very small cost (particularly if you exclude the very young and severely handicapped so you don't get the screaming children incidents on planes) o.k. go for it.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Big pharma was one of the few institutions in this crisis which didn't fail miserably.  It doesn't seem particularly wise to back stab them, largely under pressure from the PRC because their vaccine doesn't work, if we want them to step up to the plate the next time there's a crisis.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1390021205974003720


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I know you are all into math but didn't think you completely ignored your English classes.  The opposite of much is a little...not none.  From a cost benefit analysis....if the little help > very small cost (particularly if you exclude the very young and severely handicapped so you don't get the screaming children incidents on planes) o.k. go for it.


That has to be the weakest policy endorsement I have ever heard.

Do you support any covid containment measure you actually believe to be effective?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

Well, how about this.

_The Atlantic_, which hasn't exactly been on our side through all this, just published an article by Emma Green called "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown."

Subtitle: "Progressive communities have been home to some of the fiercest battles over COVID-19 policies, and some liberal policy makers have left scientific evidence behind."

Some excerpts:

_The spring of 2021 is different from the spring of 2020, though. Scientists know a lot more about how COVID-19 spreads—and how it doesn’t. Public-health advice is shifting.* But some progressives have not updated their behavior based on the new information.... Some progressives have continued to embrace policies and behaviors that aren’t supported by evidence, such as banning access to playgrounds, closing beaches, and refusing to reopen schools for in-person learning....

Scientists, academics, and writers who have argued that some very low-risk activities are worth doing as vaccination rates rise—even if the risk of exposure is not zero—have faced intense backlash. After Emily Oster, an economist at Brown University, argued in The Atlantic in March that families should plan to take their kids on trips and see friends and relatives this summer, a reader sent an email to her supervisors at the university suggesting that Oster be promoted to a leadership role in the field of “genocide encouragement.”*_

Green spends some time discussing left-liberal Somerville, Massachusetts:

_In Somerville, a local leader appeared to describe parents who wanted a faster return to in-person instruction as “f***ing white parents” in a virtual public meeting; a community member accused the group of mothers advocating for schools to reopen of being motivated by white supremacy. “I spent four years fighting Trump because he was so anti-science,” Daniele Lantagne, a Somerville mom and engineering professor who works to promote equitable access to clean water and sanitation during disease outbreaks, told me. “I spent the last year fighting people who I normally would agree with … desperately trying to inject science into school reopening, and completely failed.”_

*As most Americans prepare to go back to normal, Green says in her conclusion, lockdown-addicted progressives "are left, Cassandra-like, to preach their peers’ folly."

Nice to see progressives finally portrayed, accurately, as stubbornly refusing to listen to science, and addicted to restrictions as evidence of their good citizenship.

But also nice to see a mainstream publication say: everyone else is going back to normal.*

Tom Woods


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That has to be the weakest policy endorsement I have ever heard.
> 
> Do you support any covid containment measure you actually believe to be effective?


I already laid out my plan for you.  Care to (finally) lay out yours? 

 It seems you don't know how to do a cost/benefit analysis which is why you don't proffer one for your recommends even though you profess to be open to one.  It's probably because we've established your econ background is fairly weak (incidentally I think everyone should be required to take econ in high school....it would put an end to stupid propositions like rent control).  With masks the calculation is pretty simple.  I think they provide substantially less benefit (even to others in non-residence situations) than you outline because: a) the externality of people being more casual in their distancing, b) that people can't wear them right, c) that they degrade with time or washing, d) cloth masks/bandanas/gaiters aren't even very effective and could be counterproductive in some instances, and e) the length of time spent indoors.  But I do agree they offer some protection to both the wearer and others, particularly in short term situations indoors.  Therefore there is a small benefit (particularly if it's coupled with the advice to keep indoor interactions short such as no airplanes).  That small benefit exceeds the cost (social harm, pollution, cost of the mask, possible externalities like infections) if limited to indoors and you exclude the screaming babies and autistic.

Again, I'm not advocating for any policy here.  I'd be o.k. with the one I outline above.  That's not my objective...my objective is to drill down on truth, scientific or otherwise, even if we don't like the answer.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I already laid out my plan for you.  Care to (finally) lay out yours?
> 
> It seems you don't know how to do a cost/benefit analysis which is why you don't proffer one for your recommends even though you profess to be open to one.  It's probably because we've established your econ background is fairly weak (incidentally I think everyone should be required to take econ in high school....it would put an end to stupid propositions like rent control).  With masks the calculation is pretty simple.  I think they provide substantially less benefit (even to others in non-residence situations) than you outline because: a) the externality of people being more casual in their distancing, b) that people can't wear them right, c) that they degrade with time or washing, d) cloth masks/bandanas/gaiters aren't even very effective and could be counterproductive in some instances, and e) the length of time spent indoors.  But I do agree they offer some protection to both the wearer and others, particularly in short term situations indoors.  Therefore there is a small benefit (particularly if it's coupled with the advice to keep indoor interactions short such as no airplanes).  That small benefit exceeds the cost (social harm, pollution, cost of the mask, possible externalities like infections) if limited to indoors and you exclude the screaming babies and autistic.
> 
> Again, I'm not advocating for any policy here.  I'd be o.k. with the one I outline above.  That's not my objective...my objective is to drill down on truth, scientific or otherwise, even if we don't like the answer.


That's an awful lot of words for someone who didn't answer the question.

Which policy proposals do you support that would actually "help much"?


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That's an awful lot of words for someone who didn't answer the question.
> 
> Which policy proposals do you support that would actually "help much"?


I don’t think any policy proposals would help much. Short of Australia (which is unconstitutional here at the minimum because of violent suppression of protests plus we can’t bomb Mexico into the oceans), virus is going to virus.  Best we could have done was Germany and that’s a stretch given Americans aren’t Germans.


----------



## watfly (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The key is understanding that "effective" is not boolean, or even uniform.
> 
> Masks seem to reduce your ability to receive covid by about 10%.  They also reduce your ability to send covid by 50 to 70%.
> 
> ...


What you repeatedly fail to understand is that those percentages assume you are in the presence of someone with actively contagious Covid.  The odds of you being in extended contact with anyone with Covid are slim.  If you figure in the span of over a year that less than 10% of the population has contracted Covid and the fact that those with Covid tend to stay home, the odds of being in proximity of someone with Covid at any point in time (likely an asymptomatic, which aren't reliable spreaders) are just miniscule. On a daily basis there is very, very small percentage of the population that have Covid.  

Based on SD numbers on average during the pandemic there was (assuming a 10 day contagious period) only 0.19% (1 in 523) of the population that had Covid on a daily basis.  At the peak you had a 1.02% (1 in 98)  of the population and currently only .005% (1 and 2000).  The odds are never that high that you would come in contact with someone with Covid.  I understand that those odds are still likely too high for you.

Restaurants, bars and indoor spaces don't cause the virus to spread, only people with Covid do.


----------



## espola (May 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> What you repeatedly fail to understand is that those percentages assume you are in the presence of someone with actively contagious Covid.  The odds of you being in extended contact with anyone with Covid are slim.  If you figure in the span of over a year that less than 10% of the population has contracted Covid and the fact that those with Covid tend to stay home, the odds of being in proximity of someone with Covid at any point in time (likely an asymptomatic, which aren't reliable spreaders) are just miniscule. On a daily basis there is very, very small percentage of the population that have Covid.
> 
> Based on SD numbers on average during the pandemic there was (assuming a 10 day contagious period) only 0.19% (1 in 523) of the population that had Covid on a daily basis.  At the peak you had a 1.02% (1 in 98)  of the population and currently only .005% (1 and 2000).  The odds are never that high that you would come in contact with someone with Covid.  I understand that those odds are still likely too high for you.
> 
> Restaurants, bars and indoor spaces don't cause the virus to spread, only people with Covid do.


What about those with no symptoms and thus no reason to be tested?


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> What you repeatedly fail to understand is that those percentages assume you are in the presence of someone with actively contagious Covid.  The odds of you being in extended contact with anyone with Covid are slim.  If you figure in the span of over a year that less than 10% of the population has contracted Covid and the fact that those with Covid tend to stay home, the odds of being in proximity of someone with Covid at any point in time (likely an asymptomatic, which aren't reliable spreaders) are just miniscule. On a daily basis there is very, very small percentage of the population that have Covid.
> 
> Based on SD numbers on average during the pandemic there was (assuming a 10 day contagious period) only 0.19% (1 in 523) of the population that had Covid on a daily basis.  At the peak you had a 1.02% (1 in 98)  of the population and currently only .005% (1 and 2000).  The odds are never that high that you would come in contact with someone with Covid.  I understand that those odds are still likely too high for you.
> 
> Restaurants, bars and indoor spaces don't cause the virus to spread, only people with Covid do.


If you actually want to run the numbers on probability of running into a covid contagious in person, Georgia Tech did the work on that for you.









						COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
					





					covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu
				




The probability of meeting one contagious person at a 25 person soccer game or team dinner in LA is about 4%.  

The indoor team dinner is, of course, considerably higher risk.  Same probability that someone has it, but a much greater probability that you inhale enough to catch it.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you actually want to run the numbers on probability of running into a covid contagious in person, Georgia Tech did the work on that for you.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You know you lost the war.

You are like Hitler in the bunker ordering non existent armies here and there to stop the Soviets from the East and the Brits and Americans from the West.

At some point wake up and realize the real world from the start of this has acted in very different ways vs your projections/preferred solutions.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you actually want to run the numbers on probability of running into a covid contagious in person, Georgia Tech did the work on that for you.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Of course you set it for the higher ascertaiment bias

If you are fully vaccinated I’d go ahead and have that team dinner.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Of course you set it for the higher ascertaiment bias
> 
> If you are fully vaccinated I’d go ahead and have that team dinner.


My kid is not 16 yet.  Old enough to transmit, but too young to vaccinate.  Open air for us.

I've been using 5 for a while.  It used to be the low setting.

Looking now, a bias of 3 makes more sense for LA.  

The most recent I have for LA is 4: 45% prevalence / 11% confirmed at time of study.  But that's a long term average.  Current would be lower.

So, set it for 3.  But raise the person count to 50 to include  the neighboring tables at your restaurant.  But keep it at 25 if you're doing a picnic.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> My kid is not 16 yet.  Old enough to transmit, but too young to vaccinate.  Open air for us.
> 
> I've been using 5 for a while.  It used to be the low setting.
> 
> ...


Didn’t they just approve 12-16 year olds for Pfizer?


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Didn’t they just approve 12-16 year olds for Pfizer?


Not quite yet.  Waiting...


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You know you lost the war.
> 
> You are like Hitler in the bunker ordering non existent armies here and there to stop the Soviets from the East and the Brits and Americans from the West.
> 
> At some point wake up and realize the real world from the start of this has acted in very different ways vs your projections/preferred solutions.


Actually, most of the world put in far more effort than you did.

You've been very consistent.  Your risk evaluation has always been about the risk to the person choosing an action.  Never once did you ask about the probability that one person's choice would cause another person to be harmed.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Actually, most of the world put in far more effort than you did.
> 
> You've been very consistent.  Your risk evaluation has always been about the risk to the person choosing an action.  N
> ever once did you ask about the probability that one person's choice would cause another person to be harmed.


That's where it gets messy.  You said you wanted to go there.  The person being harmed most likely has fewer years of life remaining.  Meanwhile, the children were asked to sacrifice the most for them, despite being the least at risk, putting the old motto "women and children first" completely on its head.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Probably routine vaccine breakthrough which does happen in rare cases (the individual in question was very old with multiple conditions) but roh roh.  It makes sense, though, as every indication from India is that their version is much more contagious than the first, is reinfecting individuals who had mild or asymptomatic cases first go around, broke through previous regional resistance to the coronavirus (perhaps from prior coronavirus infections), and has been hitting younger people more seriously.  Frankly surprised Biden/Fauci didn't put a travel ban in earlier and that the travel ban isn't more robust.









						Death of fully vaccinated US expert in India sparks worry over Pfizer's efficacy against COVID-19 double mutant - Global Times
					






					www.globaltimes.cn


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Probably routine vaccine breakthrough which does happen in rare cases (the individual in question was very old with multiple conditions) but roh roh.  It makes sense, though, as every indication from India is that their version is much more contagious than the first, is reinfecting individuals who had mild or asymptomatic cases first go around, broke through previous regional resistance to the coronavirus (perhaps from prior coronavirus infections), and has been hitting younger people more seriously.  Frankly surprised Biden/Fauci didn't put a travel ban in earlier and that the travel ban isn't more robust.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The ironic thing would be if the nonfunctional Chinese vaccine actually functions better against this variant than the mRNA vaccine.  Unlikely.  Probably CCP hopeful thinking.  But life is messy and weird.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Probably routine vaccine breakthrough which does happen in rare cases (the individual in question was very old with multiple conditions) but roh roh.  It makes sense, though, as every indication from India is that their version is much more contagious than the first, is reinfecting individuals who had mild or asymptomatic cases first go around, broke through previous regional resistance to the coronavirus (perhaps from prior coronavirus infections), and has been hitting younger people more seriously.  Frankly surprised Biden/Fauci didn't put a travel ban in earlier and that the travel ban isn't more robust.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Actually, they're encouraging people to fly home.  Stupid.

It would be far smarter to send plane loads of Pfizer shots to India.  Better to vaccinate people there than spread the new variant here.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's where it gets messy.  You said you wanted to go there.  The person being harmed most likely has fewer years of life remaining.  Meanwhile, the children were asked to sacrifice the most for them, despite being the least at risk, putting the old motto "women and children first" completely on its head.


Much of the pain for kids was the result of adults being super slow to open outdoor spaces and schools. 

Masks for them were a complete non issue.  They fidgeted for a bit, but after a month it became as exciting as a sock.

Even bars/restaurants/casinos/non essential air travel could have been closed if we had a smarter PPP.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Actually, they're encouraging people to fly home.  Stupid.
> 
> It would be far smarter to send plane loads of Pfizer shots to India.  Better to vaccinate people there than spread the new variant here.


the breakthrough cited IIRC was with the Pfizer vaccine.

You and I then actually agree on something for a change, which means they really must be doing something stupid.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Actually, most of the world put in far more effort than you did.
> 
> You've been very consistent.  Your risk evaluation has always been about the risk to the person choosing an action.  Never once did you ask about the probability that one person's choice would cause another person to be harmed.


Actually no.

Initially I was very cautious. I didn't go anywhere nor did I allow my kids.

I stocked up to avoid having to go shop.

However early on the data came in and said....

My kids had zero risk and I had minimal risk.

It was clear early on that a very small segment of our population had 75-80% of all deaths. Within that age group 40-45% were already in nursing homes (a one way stop).

So I adjusted based on actual data.

You didn't.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Much of the pain for kids was the result of adults being super slow to open outdoor spaces and schools


That would be as a result of people like you..right?


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Even bars/restaurants/casinos/non essential air travel could have been closed if we had a smarter PPP


No...because a rather significant part of our population relies on those types of biz to......what is the word I am looking for?...oh yeah...to survive.

10s of millions of people derive their livelihoods on the biz you want to shut down. As watfly stated and I have as well...we lay money that if your income depended on restaurants or bars, you would not advocate for their closing.

You have a guaranteed paycheck so you advocate stuff that doesn't harm you. Yes I know you said you do take out once a week....let them eat cake....


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

espola said:


> What about those with no symptoms and thus no reason to be tested?


I'd look at the last time we PCR tested those with no symptoms.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Actually, most of the world put in far more effort than you did.
> 
> You've been very consistent.  Your risk evaluation has always been about the risk to the person choosing an action.  Never once did you ask about the probability that one person's choice would cause another person to be harmed.


There's that selection bias you despise.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> However early on the data came in and said....
> 
> My kids had zero risk and I had minimal risk.


Exactly.  You evaluated the risk to you and your family.

You made no effort to evaluate the risk, through you, to other people.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> .... smarter PPP.


Get your Macro on.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Exactly.  You evaluated the risk to you and your family.
> 
> You made no effort to evaluate the risk, through you, to other people.


Actually you missed it again.

The vast majority of the population has no risk. And yet despite that you expect people to not work, to kill off their biz, to not send their kids to school, etc. 

You are the one living in fantasy land.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Exactly.  You evaluated the risk to you and your family.
> 
> You made no effort to evaluate the risk, through you, to other people.


Did you evaluate the risk you posed to others?


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> I'd look at the last time we PCR tested those with no symptoms.


Last time we PCR tested people with no symptoms?

Today.   Tens or hundreds of thousands of tests. 

Asymptomatic screening is so common it's a check box on the test order form.

It's part of the reason positivity is so low.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Actually you missed it again.
> 
> The vast majority of the population has no risk. And yet despite that you expect people to not work, to kill off their biz, to not send their kids to school, etc.
> 
> You are the one living in fantasy land.


That fantasy land despises real science and the history of SARS.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Exactly.  You evaluated the risk to you and your family.
> 
> You made no effort to evaluate the risk, through you, to other people.


And it is why basically you are the only one left on these boards making your argument. Early on you had fellow travelers. As the real world data came in they faded away.

You are the last one standing there shouting at perceived ghosts.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Last time we PCR tested people with no symptoms?
> 
> Today.   Tens or hundreds of thousands of tests.
> 
> ...


Hanapaa!!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you actually want to run the numbers on probability of running into a covid contagious in person, Georgia Tech did the work on that for you.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This assumes someone with COVID is as likely to be out among people as those without COVID.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> No...because a rather significant part of our population relies on those types of biz to......what is the word I am looking for?...oh yeah...to survive.
> 
> 10s of millions of people derive their livelihoods on the biz you want to shut down. As watfly stated and I have as well...we lay money that if your income depended on restaurants or bars, you would not advocate for their closing.
> 
> You have a guaranteed paycheck so you advocate stuff that doesn't harm you. Yes I know you said you do take out once a week....let them eat cake....


So, we let a half million people die of covid to preserve paychecks for ten million?  Someone's life is worth about 20 jobs?

And it didn't even work.  The economy still is worse than the economy in places which actually brought cases down.  We had the deaths and the unemployment.

I'll keep with my take out, thanks.  It does a better job of employing people than your plan of letting covid run free.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This assumes someone with COVID is as likely to be out among people as those without COVID.


True.

You know any way to estimate what fraction of covid patients are aware enough to self quarantine?

I have no idea how to estimate it.  Maybe someone has done a survey to count what fraction of people are self quarantining at any given time.  That would have to be a huge survey, though.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That has to be the weakest policy endorsement I have ever heard.
> 
> Do you support any covid containment measure you actually believe to be effective?


The containment measures we took during SARS-Cov-1 would have been sufficient.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> True.
> 
> You know any way to estimate what fraction of covid patients are aware enough to self quarantine?


Being hospitalized as  "covid patients" might be their first clue.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I have no idea how to estimate it.  Maybe someone has done a survey to count what fraction of people are self quarantining at any given time.  That would have to be a huge survey, though.


Why estimate.  Look at the SARS-CoV-1 data.  People self quarantine for the flu all the time.  If you need a survey to tell you when to quarantine, you're the problem.  Feeling shitty usually triggers the I don't want to be around anyone until I feel better mode.  Sheesh.  You smart people make things harder than they need to be.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, we let a half million people die of covid to preserve paychecks for ten million?  Someone's life is worth about 20 jobs?
> 
> And it didn't even work.  The economy still is worse than the economy in places which actually brought cases down.  We had the deaths and the unemployment.
> 
> I'll keep with my take out, thanks.  It does a better job of employing people than your plan of letting covid run free.


So we "let" a half million people die of cancer a year?  We also let another half million die of heart disease every year?  That's a lot of letting.  How many Covid deaths do you think hitch hiked on heart disease?  Don't be so naive-vil.  Why are you letting a million people die a year?


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Why estimate.  Look at the SARS-CoV-1 data.  People self quarantine for the flu all the time.  If you need a survey to tell you when to quarantine, you're the problem.  Feeling shitty usually triggers the I don't want to be around anyone until I feel better mode.  Sheesh.  You smart people make things harder than they need to be.


The complication here is the initial period when people are presymptomatic (they aren’t really presymptomatic...they are starting to fe s...tty...maybe feeling tired, lost smell or have a tickle in their throat but otherwise ok). People like to convince themselves in those circumstances they aren’t really falling sick (“it’s allergies”). That’s the relevant percentage (not all sick people). There’s also a question of how you throw in the truly asymptomatic...some studies have said they aren’t very contagious at all, while others have said yes they do transmit the virus if at lower viral loads.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> So we "let" a half million people die of cancer a year?  We also let another half million die of heart disease every year?  That's a lot of letting.  How many Covid deaths do you think hitch hiked on heart disease?  Don't be so naive-vil.  Why are you letting a million people die a year?


a million people world wide die of mosquito born illnesses. We have the technology (at a very high cost) to wipe out that species.  But we do t because of the overwhelming expense plus the ecological side effects that would happen including mass extinctions of other species.


----------



## dad4 (May 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The complication here is the initial period when people are presymptomatic (they aren’t really presymptomatic...they are starting to fe s...tty...maybe feeling tired, lost smell or have a tickle in their throat but otherwise ok). People like to convince themselves in those circumstances they aren’t really falling sick (“it’s allergies”). That’s the relevant percentage (not all sick people). There’s also a question of how you throw in the truly asymptomatic...some studies have said they aren’t very contagious at all, while others have said yes they do transmit the virus if at lower viral loads.


For purposes of transmission, those are all the same.  you can call it “asymptomatic”, “pre-symptomatic”, or “so completely delusional they can’t admit they are sick”.   It doesn’t matter.   However he got there, It still adds up to a contagious person sitting 2 tables over at the restaurant.


----------



## Grace T. (May 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> For purposes of transmission, those are all the same.  you can call it “asymptomatic”, “pre-symptomatic”, or “so completely delusional they can’t admit they are sick”.   It doesn’t matter.   However he got there, It still adds up to a contagious person sitting 2 tables over at the restaurant.


No it’s not because there’s a dispute how much the truly asymptomatic can spread it (as opposed to the presymptomatic which aren’t really non symptomatic at all in some/a large portion of cases)


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Exactly.  You evaluated the risk to you and your family.
> 
> You made no effort to evaluate the risk, through you, to other people.


Yes…he did.  From 0.001% to 0.0018% as a rough estimate.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Yes…he did.  From 0.001% to 0.0018% as a rough estimate.


MIC DROP!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

_The spring of 2021 is different from the spring of 2020, though. Scientists know a lot more about how COVID-19 spreads—and how it doesn’t. Public-health advice is shifting.* But some progressives have not updated their behavior based on the new information.... Some progressives have continued to embrace policies and behaviors that aren’t supported by evidence, such as banning access to playgrounds, closing beaches, and refusing to reopen schools for in-person learning....*_


----------



## dad4 (May 6, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Yes…he did.  From 0.001% to 0.0018% as a rough estimate.


What kind of BS estimate is that?  It is completely wrong.  His personal risk of catching coronavirus in Arizona is over 1/2.   And, given his risk tolerance, if he catches coronavirus, he is likely to spread covid to more than one person.   There is no way in hell that his personal risk of giving covid to another human being is 0.001%.  Even the risk that he gives covid to someone who then dies from it is considerably higher than 0.001%.

If you want to estimate the risk to other people, find the risk that you catch it (around 1/2), find the estimated number of people you spread it to (around 1), then multiply by the overall infection fatality rate (around 0.005 )

So, a medium high risk person in LA might be 0.7 * 1.5 * 0.005 =  0.00525.  0.5%.   About a 1/200 chance of having indirectly caused someone else’s death.

That’s higher than most things we do, like driving, which risk another person’s death.

A medium low risk person might be 0.3 * .7 * 0.005 = 0.00105.  0.1%.  About a 1/1000 chance of having indirectly caused someone’s death.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What kind of BS estimate is that?  It is completely wrong.  His personal risk of catching coronavirus in Arizona is over 1/2.   And, given his risk tolerance, if he catches coronavirus, he is likely to spread covid to more than one person.   There is no way in hell that his personal risk of giving covid to another human being is 0.001%.  Even the risk that he gives covid to someone who then dies from it is considerably higher than 0.001%.
> 
> If you want to estimate the risk to other people, find the risk that you catch it (around 1/2), find the estimated number of people you spread it to (around 1), then multiply by the overall infection fatality rate (around 0.005 )
> 
> ...


It’s called sarcasm….I know it’s use isn’t laid out in any text book so you may have a tough time understanding it’s use and that’s ok.

Can you run those stats on the increase risk on driving then…I’d like to see that comparison since you brought it up.


----------



## dad4 (May 6, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> It’s called sarcasm….I know it’s use isn’t laid out in any text book so you may have a tough time understanding it’s use and that’s ok.
> 
> Can you run those stats on the increase risk on driving then…I’d like to see that comparison since you brought it up.


I’ll go find an algorothm to explain sarcasm for me.

For traffic fatalities, I have to make some kind of assumption about what fraction of traffic fatalities are caused by someone other than the deceased.  Going with 1/2, for lack of a better number.  

So, over a normal year,

30,000 fatalities * ( 1/2 are not self-inflicted ) / 229,000,000 drivers =  0.0000655.  0.00655%.  We each take a 1/15,000 chance of killing someone else each year we choose to drive.  1/250 lifetime risk.  

Over one year, the medium high risk person is about 75 times more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic fatality.  Also over one year, a medium low risk person is 15 times more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic death.

Over a lifetime, the medium high risk person is slightly more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic fatality.  A medium low risk person is considerably less likely to cause the covid death than the traffic death.

This all assumes covid is mostly over in the US.  If variants cause multiple rounds of this, then the risk of causing a covid death rises considerably, as does the pain of living under restrictions.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What kind of BS estimate is that?  It is completely wrong.  His personal risk of catching coronavirus in Arizona is over 1/2.   And, given his risk tolerance, if he catches coronavirus, he is likely to spread covid to more than one person.   There is no way in hell that his personal risk of giving covid to another human being is 0.001%.  Even the risk that he gives covid to someone who then dies from it is considerably higher than 0.001%.
> 
> If you want to estimate the risk to other people, find the risk that you catch it (around 1/2), find the estimated number of people you spread it to (around 1), then multiply by the overall infection fatality rate (around 0.005 )
> 
> ...


Dissing history and demographics again.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’ll go find an algorothm to explain sarcasm for me.
> 
> For traffic fatalities, I have to make some kind of assumption about what fraction of traffic fatalities are caused by someone other than the deceased.  Going with 1/2, for lack of a better number.
> 
> ...


Historical evidence?


----------



## Desert Hound (May 6, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Dissing history and demographics again.


He is still stuck on wondering why the real world doesn't match his preferred model. 

He is stuck wondering how it is possible TX and FL basically did the exact opposite of CA and yet all 3 are in roughly the same spot. 

He is stuck wondering why vaccinated people DON'T want to wear masks anymore. 

He is stuck wondering why people want to send their kids back to school and he doesn't. 

He is stuck wondering why people want to go out and do things. 

The war is over. People have moved on and are dealing with the real world. What is that? We will be living with Covid for the forseable future. Get vaccinated if you want and/or in a high risk group. People will be increasing hanging out and doing what they did pre-covid despite what the Karens of this world want.

We are not going to put up with masks, social distancing, etc for years on end. Or even that much longer.


----------



## Grace T. (May 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> He is still stuck on wondering why the real world doesn't match his preferred model.
> 
> He is stuck wondering how it is possible TX and FL basically did the exact opposite of CA and yet all 3 are in roughly the same spot.
> 
> ...


I'm now  2 weeks out from full vaccination.  We just had our first in person D&D party, indoors, no masks for the first time since this started.  Everyone there was fully vaccinated and/or had COVID in the last 90 days.  Only 2 of our group hadn't hit the magical week so were stuck remote.  Those of us in person drinking had much more fun.


----------



## watfly (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm now  2 weeks out from full vaccination.  We just had our first in person D&D party, indoors, no masks for the first time since this started.  Everyone there was fully vaccinated and/or had COVID in the last 90 days.  Only 2 of our group hadn't hit the magical week so were stuck remote.  Those of us in person drinking had much more fun.


Do I dare ask what a D&D party is?


----------



## Grace T. (May 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> Do I dare ask what a D&D party is?


A party where you get together and play Dungeons and Dragons, that role playing game that was popular in the 80s and recently had a Renaissance.


----------



## dad4 (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm now  2 weeks out from full vaccination.  We just had our first in person D&D party, indoors, no masks for the first time since this started.  Everyone there was fully vaccinated and/or had COVID in the last 90 days.  Only 2 of our group hadn't hit the magical week so were stuck remote.  Those of us in person drinking had much more fun.


Paladins.   You should all play paladins.  Healing and divine smite.  What else do you need?

-Buzz


----------



## watfly (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A party where you get together and play Dungeons and Dragons, that role playing game that was popular in the 80s and recently had a Renaissance.





dad4 said:


> Paladins.   You should all play paladins.  Healing and divine smite.  What else do you need?
> 
> -Buzz


Ok, now you both are starting to scare me.


----------



## Grace T. (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Paladins.   You should all play paladins.  Healing and divine smite.  What else do you need?
> 
> -Buzz


Figures.

You'll appreciate this.  There is a paladin in the campaign (and a rouge, ranger, sorcerer, wizard, dwarven fighter, and barbarian).  The paladin is part of a sect that loosely resembles Christianity in this universe and worships a patron saint called St. Justinia (the patron saint against witchcraft and dark magic).  He plays him really over the top and fanatical in his devotion to St. Justinia.  He thought he was the hero of the adventure but he winds up in this pagan druidic village and starts overturning their idols and collapsing their government.  Much to his surprise, turns out he's the villain of this little piece.  The villagers are on the verge of murdering the party because of him and have even sided with a band of shakedown gang members and  greedy but otherwise benevolent dark wizard over the disruption the so-called heroes, in their quest to better everyone's standard of living, are causing.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> He is still stuck on wondering why the real world doesn't match his preferred model.
> 
> He is stuck wondering how it is possible TX and FL basically did the exact opposite of CA and yet all 3 are in roughly the same spot.
> 
> ...


Dad4 fancies himself a shepherd instead of one of the sheep.  He's not in to challenging the mainstream narrative that is thoroughly debunked by a long history of global respiratory diseases.  It's a wonder the world population is what it is when you read his dervishing bull shit emboldened by the rest of the sheep and MSM clowns that get their info. from the head clown, Fauci.  Dumbest smart guys in the room.


----------



## Grace T. (May 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> Ok, now you both are starting to scare me.


Oh we have a grand old time because everything is played for laughs...so you have a paladin (who is supposed to be this ideal of good) turning out to be the villain of this piece.  Alcohol a plenty, I do a ton of celebrity impersonations, we have a comedian in the group and a two teachers who are also really hilarious, and we usually tackle a complicated philosophical moral issue too.  Everyone kind of groans when we have to do combat...it kills the buzz.


----------



## watfly (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh we have a grand old time because everything is played for laughs...so you have a paladin (who is supposed to be this ideal of good) turning out to be the villain of this piece.  Alcohol a plenty, I do a ton of celebrity impersonations, we have a comedian in the group and a two teachers who are also really hilarious, and we usually tackle a complicated philosophical moral issue too.  Everyone kind of groans when we have to do combat...it kills the buzz.


The only Paladins I knew were a rockabilly band from SD.


----------



## Grace T. (May 6, 2021)

Sad...kiddo also sounds like he has ADHD....zoom learning has been horrible for many of them.









						‘I Used to Like School’: An 11-Year-Old’s Struggle With Pandemic Learning (Published 2021)
					

Without home internet, Jordyn Coleman has had trouble staying connected to remote classes during the coronavirus pandemic.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Sad...kiddo also sounds like he has ADHD....zoom learning has been horrible for many of them.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Gotta love them one size fits all policies that Dad4 advocates.  And where the hell is BLM for Jordyn??


----------



## dad4 (May 6, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Dissing history and demographics again.


Happy to discuss the merits of different statistical methods with you.

Just waiting for you write a coherent explanation of whatever point you were trying to make with R^2. 

Here’s a site to get you started:









						Correlation Coefficient: Simple Definition, Formula, Easy Steps
					

The correlation coefficient formula explained in plain English. How to find Pearson's r by hand or using technology. Step by step videos. Simple definition.




					www.statisticshowto.com
				




You might want to get into analysis of variance before you start writing.


----------



## espola (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Happy to discuss the merits of different statistical methods with you.
> 
> Just waiting for you write a coherent explanation of whatever point you were trying to make with R^2.
> 
> ...


Watch out for statistics. Reading Parker's Humble Pi today he points out the (apparent) correlation between the number of mathematics PHDs awarded over 20 years and the almost-identical curve of people who died from tripping and falling over the same interval.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 6, 2021)

Is it just me or is there a poster on this thread that seems to be talking to his/herself?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Happy to discuss the merits of different statistical methods with you.
> 
> Just waiting for you write a coherent explanation of whatever point you were trying to make with R^2.
> 
> ...


Cases vs. Deaths.  Ready. Set. Go.


----------



## dad4 (May 6, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Cases vs. Deaths.  Ready. Set. Go.


Coherent.  I asked for a coherent explanation, not a cryptic one.

If you actually understand your own point, this should not be difficult.


----------



## crush (May 6, 2021)

Story time from crush.  This is first hand witness account from yours truly and wifey poo was a witness to this as well.  I'm up in Nocal looking for work and new opportunities for the New Frontier.  Oh boy, I can;t wait to play this new game of life.  Everyone get's a fresh start and a do over or as some like to say, a Mulligan(s).  Anyway, me and the wife meet up with an old pal I havent seen in 38 years.  Dude tells me he's a farmer and is killing it so I went to look at his farm   My wife was talking to his 25 year old dd about this and that and the shot came up out of know wear.  She said she walked into Right Aide and this lady pushed it hard on her and she took it.  Then out of the blue she goes, "btw, I missed my period now for two weeks and I have never been late."  I swear I almost spit up my fruit salad. My wife says, "I hope everything is ok sweetie.  I heard some things that aren't good for young kids and not being able to get prego."  Little Talia says, "I don;t give a fuck.  I would never bring a child into this place."  We started talking about other things and had a great rest of the day.  It was eye seeing and very revealing.  Espola thinks I make up stories.  No, I just talk too much and try to warn folks of some serious stuff coming our way.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 6, 2021)

crush said:


> Story time from crush.  This is first hand witness account from yours truly and wifey poo was a witness to this as well.  I'm up in Nocal looking for work and new opportunities for the New Frontier.  Oh boy, I can;t wait to play this new game of life.  Everyone get's a fresh start and a do over or as some like to say, a Mulligan(s).  Anyway, me and the wife meet up with an old pal I havent seen in 38 years.  Dude tells me he's a farmer and is killing it so I went to look at his farm   My wife was talking to his 25 year old dd about this and that and the shot came up out of know wear.  She said she walked into Right Aide and this lady pushed it hard on her and she took it.  Then out of the blue she goes, "btw, I missed my period now for two weeks and I have never been late."  I swear I almost spit up my fruit salad. My wife says, "I hope everything is ok sweetie.  I heard some things that aren't good for young kids and not being able to get prego."  Little Talia says, "I don;t give a fuck.  I would never bring a child into this place."  We started talking about other things and had a great rest of the day.  It was eye seeing and very revealing.  Espola thinks I make up stories.  No, I just talk too much and try to warn folks of some serious stuff coming our way.


OMG. It's called inflammation and it's normal. Did you even look this up? There are tons of stories about the same thing with backing scientific research. Not that I believe the story one single bit. Why would somebody that you've never met suddenly mention their period?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Coherent.  I asked for a coherent explanation, not a cryptic one.
> 
> If you actually understand your own point, this should not be difficult.


You mean because there is not a correlation between deaths and your case hysteria.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 6, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> It’s called sarcasm….I know it’s use isn’t laid out in any text book so you may have a tough time understanding it’s use and that’s ok.
> 
> Can you run those stats on the increase risk on driving then…I’d like to see that comparison since you brought it up.


So you are just trolling for entertainment. This is America.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So you are just trolling for entertainment. This is America.


That was entertaining.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> Ok, now you both are starting to scare me.


Creepy, but to each their own.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Coherent.  I asked for a coherent explanation, not a cryptic one.
> 
> If you actually understand your own point, this should not be difficult.


You are asking for blood from a turnip.


----------



## dad4 (May 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You are asking for blood from a turnip.


I am mocking a turnip for pretending to be a rocket scientist.

I don't mind turnips who are honest about being turnips.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So you are just trolling for entertainment. This is America.


Kind of….but without the malicious intent.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 6, 2021)

@dad4 Is this you? Or am I mistaken in that you wouldn't be in a store at all?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1390042950827188233


----------



## Desert Hound (May 6, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1389686233547395073


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You are asking for blood from a turnip.





Hüsker Dü said:


> So you are just trolling for entertainment. This is America.


Encore!!


----------



## Grace T. (May 6, 2021)

Just got some sad news.  My favorite breakfast dinner (not one of those chain restaurants...a mom and pop) is closing its doors after 65 years.  Prepandemic it was always full and the wait on Sundays was at least a 1/2 hour.  We'd always go after church or after dropping off the car across the street for service.  Kids grew up there....love the omelettes.  VC, unlike LA, only briefly closed outdoor dining when forced by the state.  But most people don't go out and get once weekly takeout from the dinner, so right at the finish line, they had to close up....they just got too far on their bills.  Our favorite sushi place has the same issue (people don't get sushi for takeout).  A blow to the main blvd too which has lost quite a few businesses during the pandemic.  I have pictures of the kids growing up there....sad.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I am mocking a turnip for pretending to be a rocket scientist.
> 
> I don't mind turnips who are honest about being turnips.


Sheep don't like turnips.  They only know what the shepard tells them.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Just got some sad news.  My favorite breakfast dinner (not one of those chain restaurants...a mom and pop) is closing its doors after 65 years.  Prepandemic it was always full and the wait on Sundays was at least a 1/2 hour.  We'd always go after church or after dropping off the car across the street for service.  Kids grew up there....love the omelettes.  VC, unlike LA, only briefly closed outdoor dining when forced by the state.  But most people don't go out and get once weekly takeout from the dinner, so right at the finish line, they had to close up....they just got too far on their bills.  Our favorite sushi place has the same issue (people don't get sushi for takeout).  A blow to the main blvd too which has lost quite a few businesses during the pandemic.  I have pictures of the kids growing up there....sad.


Please stop boring us with these meaningless micro issues.  Restaurant owners should have pandemic proofed their business's and expected the government to implement tyrannical policies based on a common cold virus and case hysteria.


----------



## crush (May 6, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> OMG. It's called inflammation and it's normal. Did you even look this up? There are tons of stories about the same thing with backing scientific research. Not that I believe the story one single bit. Why would somebody that you've never met suddenly mention their period?


Great question.  I have no idea either.  Farm life?  I new u would not believe me.  Please explain to the readers what you mean by the research on the inflammation part. I already heard about missing periods for younger females but not inflammation. Look, I don't lie.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 6, 2021)

I always thought this was one of the more sad aspects of this whole thing:









						Some Question Whether Hospital Visitation Bans During Pandemic Were Too Strict
					

For more than a year, people couldn't sit with loved ones as they died in hospitals. Those lonely deaths took a toll on families. Now some doctors are questioning whether the rules were too strict.




					www.npr.org


----------



## watfly (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Our favorite sushi place has the same issue (people don't get sushi for takeout).


I don't care how quickly you get it after they prepare it and rush home, it never tastes remotely the same as dining in.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 6, 2021)

Karens everywhere.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1390348065421332480


----------



## Desert Hound (May 6, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I always thought this was one of the more sad aspects of this whole thing:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yep my brother in law died alone in hospice. They didn't allow his immediate family any visits at all. Finally when he was within an hour of so of death they "allowed" his kids and wife to visit. He by that time was so far gone he didn't know anyone was even there.


----------



## watfly (May 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep my brother in law died alone in hospice. They didn't allow his immediate family any visits at all. Finally when he was within an hour of so of death they "allowed" his kids and wife to visit. He by that time was so far gone he didn't know anyone was even there.


That's criminal...makes my stomach turn and pisses me off.  Can't imagine how the family felt.  My condolences to you and his family.  That's just so wrong.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Karens everywhere.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1390348065421332480


Yah…who in this video is the more “insensitive” and “discusting” human being in this video!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep my brother in law died alone in hospice. They didn't allow his immediate family any visits at all. Finally when he was within an hour of so of death they "allowed" his kids and wife to visit. He by that time was so far gone he didn't know anyone was even there.


That's what Dad4 advocates.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Karens everywhere.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1390348065421332480


Dude is a coward.


----------



## espola (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Just got some sad news.  My favorite breakfast dinner (not one of those chain restaurants...a mom and pop) is closing its doors after 65 years.  Prepandemic it was always full and the wait on Sundays was at least a 1/2 hour.  We'd always go after church or after dropping off the car across the street for service.  Kids grew up there....love the omelettes.  VC, unlike LA, only briefly closed outdoor dining when forced by the state.  But most people don't go out and get once weekly takeout from the dinner, so right at the finish line, they had to close up....they just got too far on their bills.  Our favorite sushi place has the same issue (people don't get sushi for takeout).  A blow to the main blvd too which has lost quite a few businesses during the pandemic.  I have pictures of the kids growing up there....sad.


It has been years since I had sushi that was not takeout, or not available for takeout in boxes like this --


----------



## watfly (May 6, 2021)

espola said:


> It has been years since I had sushi that was not takeout, or not available for takeout in boxes like this --
> 
> View attachment 10703


Don't holdout on us, where in Poway?


----------



## Grace T. (May 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Karens everywhere.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1390348065421332480


The response back at this point should be "I'm fully vaccinated thanks.  I believe in science."


----------



## espola (May 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> Don't holdout on us, where in Poway?


I haven't lived in Poway for about 5 years now.  My wife gets out more than I do (she is still working) so she occasionally brings me home some sushi (and she makes some pretty good sushi herself).


----------



## dad4 (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The response back at this point should be "I'm fully vaccinated thanks.  I believe in science."


Your science is a bit off.

Unless vaccines completely eliminate transmission, then you still have some benefit from masks.

Part of that benefit is keeping the social norm of masks.  We still have over 40% of people unvaccinated.   The vaccine holdouts are not going to mask up if the rest of us go bare faced.

And, if the unvaccinated 40% skip masks, it will take that much longer for cases and deaths to drop.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 6, 2021)

espola said:


> It has been years since I had sushi that was not takeout, or not available for takeout in boxes like this --
> 
> View attachment 10703


I have bought sushi at markets, even at 7-11’s, in Japan in that type packaging. Even got some late at night that was drastically discounted, always tasted great, no issues.


----------



## watfly (May 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I have bought sushi at markets, even at 7-11’s, in Japan in that type packaging. Even got some late at night that was drastically discounted, always tasted great, no issues.


Instead our 7-11s sell 100 different types of chips.


----------



## Grace T. (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your science is a bit off.
> 
> Unless vaccines completely eliminate transmission, then you still have some benefit from masks.
> 
> ...


The mask less unvaccinated in about 3 weeks time will have assumed the risk.


----------



## dad4 (May 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The mask less unvaccinated in about 3 weeks time will have assumed the risk.


Like it or not, even vaccinated people have a good reason to want covid cases lower.  

I know “vaccinated = zero risk” is a convenient approximation.  It’s close to true.  But, as you would say, that’s micro.  It really only explains the short to medium term effect on individuals.

On a macro, population wide scale, it’s different.  Having 60% vaccinated while 40% keep the virus alive is just a recipe for creating vaccine resistant variants.  Eventually, we have to get our act together and vaccinate the remainder of adults.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

It's been a month since that packed Texas Rangers game.

Dr. Fauci didn't like that game one bit:










I wonder if anyone is going to ask him why his latest prediction of doom about people living normally was as wrong as usual:










And finally, courtesy of Eric @IAmTheActualET on Twitter, here are the 25 most stringent lockdown states graphed against the 25 least stringent; there must be a radical different between the two groups, right?









Shouldn't those hospitalization numbers be _wildly_ different? And yet you can't even tell them apart.

How does this not end the debate right there? (This is a rhetorical question.)


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Like it or not, even vaccinated people have a good reason to want covid cases lower.
> 
> I know “vaccinated = zero risk” is a convenient approximation.  It’s close to true.  But, as you would say, that’s micro.  It really only explains the short to medium term effect on individuals.
> 
> On a macro, population wide scale, it’s different.  Having 60% vaccinated while 40% keep the virus alive is just a recipe for creating vaccine resistant variants.  Eventually, we have to get our act together and vaccinate the remainder of adults.


Wrong again


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Like it or not, even vaccinated people have a good reason to want covid cases lower.
> 
> I know “vaccinated = zero risk” is a convenient approximation.  It’s close to true.  But, as you would say, that’s micro.  It really only explains the short to medium term effect on individuals.
> 
> On a macro, population wide scale, it’s different.  Having 60% vaccinated while 40% keep the virus alive is just a recipe for creating vaccine resistant variants.  Eventually, we have to get our act together and vaccinate the remainder of adults.


again as we’ve discussed if the variant risk is what you are worried about: a. That’s really an argument for forcing the remaining 40%...to get there though you’d have to remove the eu label first and I rather use soft incentives first and b. Worlds not finished until 2023 so unless you are going to finish trumps wall, shut the borders even to American citizens and ground the planes, you are worried about the horses after they’ve fled the barn.

but then you are a preacher so you worry about these silly little things rather than the big things because that’s what’s important to you.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Unless vaccines completely eliminate transmission, then you still have some benefit from masks.


And you just went off the rails again. 

You are not going to get buy in from people if they get vaccinated and then still have to play safety theater.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


>


Tuckers nonsensical rant notwithstanding there have been a few reports of GB syndrome with the mRNA vaccines (from the news reports at least as many as the blood clots from the j&j vaccine in the us). But GB happens with quite a few vaccines and the incidence is really low and can also happen with natural infections. The media isn’t reporting and Twitter is soft censoring for fear of setting off a panic for something which shouldn’t. 

there’s also been a rash of heart attacks but since we are vaccinating so many people and there are bound to be coincidences which otherwise would have happened, tuckers rant notwithstanding, it’s hard to distinguish that from the noise.

still the handling of the j&j shot and their unwillingness to look at this doesn’t exactly raise confidence when it comes to vaccinating the kids


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Tuckers nonsensical rant notwithstanding there have been a few reports of GB syndrome with the mRNA vaccines (from the news reports at least as many as the blood clots from the j&j vaccine in the us). But GB happens with quite a few vaccines and the incidence is really low and can also happen with natural infections. The media isn’t reporting and Twitter is soft censoring for fear of setting off a panic for something which shouldn’t.
> 
> there’s also been a rash of heart attacks but since we are vaccinating so many people and there are bound to be coincidences which otherwise would have happened, tuckers rant notwithstanding, it’s hard to distinguish that from the noise.
> 
> still the handling of the j&j shot and their unwillingness to look at this doesn’t exactly raise confidence when it comes to vaccinating the kids


But SAR's enters the body through ears, nose and mouth.  Vaccines Uber direct to the blood stream.  Comparing transmission of the actual virus and a shot that is not the virus makes little sense.  Natural infections are natural.  Virus's are and always will be a part of the evolutionary process.  We are bathed in virus's daily.  Our innate and adaptive immune systems contain the intel to fight off virtually all virus's.  Billions are without vaccines.  A world population of 7.7 billion doesn't happen without a robust and evolving immune system.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> But SAR's enters the body through ears, nose and mouth.  Vaccines Uber direct to the blood stream.  Comparing transmission of the actual virus and a shot that is not the virus makes little sense.  Natural infections are natural.  Virus's are and always will be a part of the evolutionary process.  We are bathed in virus's daily.  Our innate and adaptive immune systems contain the intel to fight off virtually all virus's.  Billions are without vaccines.  A world population of 7.7 billion doesn't happen without a robust and evolving immune system.


Yeah, but like everything it's not free.  It comes at the cost which is mostly born by the old people but also every once in a while it also strikes down someone younger in their 50s 40s and even 30s.  It's a da kine thing.

Small pox was also natural and we had dealt with it as far back as the Roman Empire.  Struck down millions over recorded history.  I doubt anyone mourns the disappearance of small pox.

Natural infection is about on par with the first vaccine dose, at least so they think.  The protocol they are studying in the UK is if you've had it, you may only need the 1 shot, but they aren't sure yet.


----------



## dad4 (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> again as we’ve discussed if the variant risk is what you are worried about: a. That’s really an argument for forcing the remaining 40%...to get there though you’d have to remove the eu label first and I rather use soft incentives first and b. Worlds not finished until 2023 so unless you are going to finish trumps wall, shut the borders even to American citizens and ground the planes, you are worried about the horses after they’ve fled the barn.
> 
> but then you are a preacher so you worry about these silly little things rather than the big things because that’s what’s important to you.


Why assume that getting to the remaining 40% means force?  Most places are focusing on outreach.

As a practical matter, most places which care enough to do vaccine passports probably care enough to reach herd immunity without them.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why assume that getting to the remaining 40% means force?  Most places are focusing on outreach.
> 
> As a practical matter, most places which care enough to do vaccine passports probably care enough to reach herd immunity without them.


We agree then.  I don't think force is required.  I do think more outreach is.  I'd actually do a lottery with big cash prize.  A substantial portion also I suspect is people who have had COVID who are waiting.  My bestie is being advised by her doctor to wait 90 days post COVID.  But until you get the EU label removed, I don't think even soft force (like vaccine passports required to board airplanes) are justified, especially when it comes to the kids.


----------



## dad4 (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We agree then.  I don't think force is required.  I do think more outreach is.  I'd actually do a lottery with big cash prize.  A substantial portion also I suspect is people who have had COVID who are waiting.  My bestie is being advised by her doctor to wait 90 days post COVID.  But until you get the EU label removed, I don't think even soft force (like vaccine passports required to board airplanes) are justified, especially when it comes to the kids.


Even UC didn’t require vaccinations until full approval.

I do see a role for allowing high risk places to open for vaccinated customers.  I’d like to see some MLS games, but I do not think they should be allowed to open to non-vaccinated customers.  If you don’t allow some kind of vaccine requirement, you end up keeping things closed longer than is really necessary.

However, I love the Yankees promo for a free ticket with your vaccination.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, but like everything it's not free.  It comes at the cost which is mostly born by the old people but also every once in a while it also strikes down someone younger in their 50s 40s and even 30s.  It's a da kine thing.
> 
> Small pox was also natural and we had dealt with it as far back as the Roman Empire.  Struck down millions over recorded history.  I doubt anyone mourns the disappearance of small pox.
> 
> Natural infection is about on par with the first vaccine dose, at least so they think.  The protocol they are studying in the UK is if you've had it, you may only need the 1 shot, but they aren't sure yet.


The fake Vaccines are uncounted mulligans to the green and a 3 foot putt.  Natural infections play excellent long and short game with natural outcomes (cost) that aren't mandated except by the evolutionary process.  Interventionism, the euphemism for socialism, is being mandated for the Corona virus which has been with us since long before the current fake crisis.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Even UC didn’t require vaccinations until full approval.
> 
> I do see a role for allowing high risk places to open for vaccinated customers.  I’d like to see some MLS games, but I do not think they should be allowed to open to non-vaccinated customers.  If you don’t allow some kind of vaccine requirement, you end up keeping things closed longer than is really necessary.
> 
> However, I love the Yankees promo for a free ticket with your vaccination.


There would be too much liability if they required only a vaccine to watch MLS games while the EU label is in place....that's why a lot of places  seem to be headed to vaccine or a COVID test 72 hours in advance.....seems like blue state sleep away camps may end there and Staples has it in place for certain sections.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why assume that getting to the remaining 40% means force?  Most places are focusing on outreach.


  Why assume that Outreach removes force?



dad4 said:


> As a practical matter, most places which care enough to do vaccine passports probably care enough to reach herd immunity without them.


In other words.  Apply force.  You crack me up dude.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The fake Vaccines are uncounted mulligans to the green and a 3 foot putt.  Natural infections play excellent long and short game with natural outcomes (cost) that aren't mandated except by the evolutionary process.  Interventionism, the euphemism for socialism, is being mandated for the Corona virus which has been with us since long before the current fake crisis.


The science is the reverse on this because of the 2 dose regimen.  Again, the first dose is like a natural infection...the protection is imperfect and we don't know how either last long term.

The same BTW can be said about: eye glasses, laser surgery, contraception, any other vaccine, antibiotics, antivirals, a cane, a wheelchair, dentists, any surgery.  Natural evolved to give us the bare minimum to survive since it's concerned with survival only of the fittest.  In response, humanity developed brains that can circumvent some natural processes.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Even UC didn’t require vaccinations until full approval.
> 
> I do see a role for allowing high risk places to open for vaccinated customers.  I’d like to see some MLS games, but I do not think they should be allowed to open to non-vaccinated customers.  If you don’t allow some kind of vaccine requirement, you end up keeping things closed longer than is really necessary.
> 
> However, I love the Yankees promo for a free ticket with your vaccination.


Be interesting to see a 40% drop in sales.


----------



## dad4 (May 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Wrong again


Meaning you don’t like mRNA vaccines.  We knew that.

In this case, the mRNA vaccines work better than the chicken egg ones.  Not that you'd ever admit it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The science is the reverse on this because of the 2 dose regimen.  Again, the first dose is like a natural infection...the protection is imperfect and we don't know how either last long term.


Except it is not a natural infection.  It Ubers directly to the blood stream.



Grace T. said:


> The same BTW can be said about: eye glasses, laser surgery, contraception, any other vaccine, antibiotics, antivirals, a cane, a wheelchair, dentists, any surgery.  Natural evolved to give us the bare minimum to survive since it's concerned with survival only of the fittest.  In response, humanity developed brains that can circumvent some natural processes.


Agree but none of what is in your list above has ever caused us to mandate a shutdown.  That is a poor response from our developed brains that abandoned the natural process and thus humanity.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

This is good news for variants too if we care about deaths, not cases.  It means even though the Rona might be around for a long time, if a variant break through happens, unless its a very bad variant, deaths should remain on the floor. 









						Recent endemic coronavirus infection is associated with less-severe COVID-19 - PubMed
					

Four different endemic coronaviruses (eCoVs) are etiologic agents for the seasonal common cold, and these eCoVs share extensive sequence homology with human SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Here, we show that individuals with, as compared with those without, a recent documented infection with...




					pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Meaning you don’t like mRNA vaccines.  We knew that.


It's a vaccine?


dad4 said:


> In this case, the mRNA vaccines work better than the chicken egg ones.  Not that you'd ever admit it.


Immune systems work a lot better than both for a cold virus.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Except it is not a natural infection.  It Ubers directly to the blood stream.
> 
> Agree but none of what is in your list above has ever caused us to mandate a shutdown.  That is a poor response from our developed brains that abandoned the natural process and thus humanity.


The shutdown thing is just not historically accurate.  It's never been a global shutdown....that's correct.  But there were localized shutdowns in response to the 1918 flu epidemic, the 1775 small pox epidemics, various yellow fever epidemics, even as far back as the Plague of Justinian.


----------



## dad4 (May 7, 2021)

I see a huge difference between force and safety.

If it isn't safe for you to attend, you should not go.  Nor should you be allowed to go. 

That's not about forcing you to do anything.  

It is just a simple statement that the rest of us would like to exercise our right to avoid you.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It is just a simple statement that the rest of us would like to exercise our right to avoid you.


So stay in your basement if you don't want to mingle with the human race. 

You don't have any risk.

The vast vast majority of the population has little to no risk.

80% of deaths are 65 and older. The real numbers are at70-75 and older. And in that group over 40% of the deaths are within nursing homes (a population of roughly 2 million people).


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If it isn't safe for you to attend, you should not go.  Nor should you be allowed to go.


What is the threshold for “safe”?


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I see a huge difference between force and safety.
> 
> If it isn't safe for you to attend, you should not go.  Nor should you be allowed to go.
> 
> ...


Why if you've been vaccinated and your chance of death has dropped to the floor.  If you have a special circumstances, why is that on the rest of us?  If you don't, you don't have a right to be COVID-free....everyone is going to get it, eventually given enough time.  Sure, people shouldn't go out if they know they are sick....that's common courtesy which is sometimes in too short supply.  But you also don't have a right to be flu-free, cold-free, or chicken-pox free (particularly if you haven't taken the chicken pox vaccines)..


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The shutdown thing is just not historically accurate.  It's never been a global shutdown....that's correct.  But there were localized shutdowns in response to the 1918 flu epidemic, the 1775 small pox epidemics, various yellow fever epidemics, even as far back as the Plague of Justinian.


I know it wasn't a global shutdown.  Thank god for Florida and Sweden.  Oh and Costco and Amazon.  They kept Mad Max off the roads.  Did the localized shutdowns require mask and social distancing?  What was drinking water, nutrition, and hygeine like in the days of the Justinians or back in 1918 or 1175?


----------



## Desert Hound (May 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> What is the threshold for “safe”?


Based on his pronouncement from up on high the past year I would say he wants to get cases and deaths down to zero first. Then wait another 6 months just to be sure.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 7, 2021)

Passing thoughts/comments...

"When the Chinese government is confronted with a problem, the regime’s default setting is to deny the problem exists.

The Chinese government’s official statistics would have you believe that the COVID-19 pandemic effectively ended in that country in March 2020. The official statistics declare that the most populated country in the world, with more than 1.4 billion people, ranks 96th among all countries in cases, with just over 90,000, and 58th in deaths, with 4,636. *To believe the Chinese official numbers, the entire country has seen four people die from COVID-19 since April 2020,* and that they’ve never had more than 1,000 active cases on any given day over the past year. According to the Chinese government, no variant of COVID-19 has touched them in any significant way.

Meanwhile, just across the border, India reported 414,188 cases of infection and 3,915 deaths.

_And that’s just today."_


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I see a huge difference between force and safety.


No evidence of that in the last 226 pages.  See your comment below.  That's not huge. Lol



dad4 said:


> If it isn't safe for you to attend, you should not go.  Nor should you be allowed to go.


I'll tell you what is huge.  The difference between my safety and yours.  Yours lacks science, history, and courage.



dad4 said:


> That's not about forcing you to do anything.


Oh? I quote you from your statement above. "Nor should you be allowed to go.



dad4 said:


> It is just a simple statement that the rest of us would like to exercise our right to avoid you.


Did you not exercise your right to avoid me?  Not that I can tell from the Safe Zone you created.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Based on his pronouncement from up on high the past year I would say he wants to get cases and deaths down to zero first. Then wait another 6 months just to be sure.


I'm genuinely curious at this point if it's just COVID or other viruses like the flu that give him the willies.  Does he have a little hypochondriac streak?  I actually had one but the current pandemic actually cured me of it for the most part.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm genuinely curious at this point if it's just COVID or other viruses like the flu that give him the willies.  Does he have a little hypochondriac streak?  I actually had one but the current pandemic actually cured me of it for the most part.


Good question.


----------



## espola (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The shutdown thing is just not historically accurate.  It's never been a global shutdown....that's correct.  But there were localized shutdowns in response to the 1918 flu epidemic, the 1775 small pox epidemics, various yellow fever epidemics, even as far back as the Plague of Justinian.


You're feeding a troll.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

espola said:


> You're feeding a troll.


Let me reload my reel.  Wasn't expecting a mullet to run that hard.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

espola said:


> You're feeding a troll.


That's da kine.  Pot meet kettle.  Kettle meet pot.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

Looks like Mumbai and New Delhi have hit some measure of herd immunity.  They were hit particularly hard in the first wave and in the current wave.  Other areas and cities, despite the mask and lockdown restrictions, are still rising.


----------



## dad4 (May 7, 2021)

Requiring vaccines at high risk places has nothing to do with changing anyone's behavior.

We have three options:
-Close high transmission areas entirely.
-Have outbreaks, and deaths, in the community.  
-Limit attendence to those who do not cause outbreaks.

Those are the options.  There is not some fourth choice where we all get to do exactly what we want with no consequences.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Requiring vaccines at high risk places has nothing to do with changing anyone's behavior.
> 
> We have three options:
> -Close high transmission areas entirely.
> ...


There is a fourth choice: people have been offered the vaccine....if they refuse they've assumed the risk...yes there might be transmission but oh well, deaths will still be on the floor because the vast majority of old people have been vaccinated and the death rate will be on the floor.

There's a fifth option for those venues that are very high risk and still worried about liability: require a vaccine or a COVID test in the last 48 hours

There's a sixth option if they are really worried about liability (like a theme park) but still need to get bodies in the door require masks for the unvaccinated, and everyone else can go about mask free.

If you really need to placate there's a seventh option (which is where camps likely wind up): the vaccinated get to go about their business but the unvaccinated require a COVID test + masks (at least if indoors).

It's not as simple as Fantasyland math world.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Requiring vaccines at high risk places has nothing to do with changing anyone's behavior.
> 
> We have three options:
> -Close high transmission areas entirely.
> ...


Padres game was a blast this past Wednesday.


----------



## dad4 (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There is a fourth choice: people have been offered the vaccine....if they refuse they've assumed the risk...yes there might be transmission but oh well, deaths will still be on the floor because the vast majority of old people have been vaccinated and the death rate will be on the floor.
> 
> There's a fifth option for those venues that are very high risk and still worried about liability: require a vaccine or a COVID test in the last 48 hours
> 
> ...


You think a mask requirement in a sports stadium environment can be effectively enforced on half the patrons but not the other half?

And you accuse me of living in Fantasyland.....


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> Instead our 7-11s sell 100 different types of chips.


I’m sure someone buys those constant rotating hot dogs?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You think a mask requirement in a sports stadium environment can be effectively enforced on half the patrons but not the other half?
> 
> And you accuse me of living in Fantasyland.....


My thoughts exactly. People wear their masks improperly all the time in mask mandatory situations. Like we say about safety glasses, “they aren’t doing you any good hanging from your neck”.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You think a mask requirement in a sports stadium environment can be effectively enforced on half the patrons but not the other half?
> 
> And you accuse me of living in Fantasyland.....


Some are planning on doing it with mask free zones for the vaccinated...of course it couldn't totally be mask free....but then my preferred solution would be those that have assumed the risk by not getting vaccinated assume the risk....it's just security theater beyond that if the business is worried about liability and/or making patrons feel better about it.


----------



## dad4 (May 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Padres game was a blast this past Wednesday.


I guess I should have listed “limp along with half empty stadiums” as an option.

It’s really just a compromse between options 1 and 2.   Halfway between “close it all“ and “accept extra deaths”.   You get some extra deaths, but fewer than with wide open.   You impose some extra cost on the business, but less than in closure.

For Grace’s other “options”:

Option 4 is option 2 (accept extra deaths), but blame the deceased.

Option 5 is option 3 (vaccine requirements), renamed and with a test option.  This one makes sense.

Option 6 is option 2, but overestimate how well masks work.  (Weird that this one came from Grace.)

Option 7 is option 2, but overestimate how well masks work, _and_ pretend that you can have enforce a rule on half the people in a stadium, but not the other half.

I’m still not seeing a way around the fact that if unvaccinated infected people gather, you get more cases and deaths.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I guess I should have listed “limp along with half empty stadiums” as an option.
> 
> It’s really just a compromse between options 1 and 2.   Halfway between “close it all“ and “accept extra deaths”.   You get some extra deaths, but fewer than with wide open.   You impose some extra cost on the business, but less than in closure.
> 
> ...



Barring a breakthrough variant, the IFR is on the floor.  Yes, you'd get cases but again they've assumed the risk so why do you care?

Option 7 isn't ideal for a stadium, but some are planning vaccinated sections without masks....we'll see if it works out....partially depends on how CDC requirements involved, but I thought camps, not stadiums were better candidates.  The masks in any case are not to reduce cases....that's not their purpose....it's security theater to avoid liability and/or appease concerned customers.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Barring a breakthrough variant, the IFR is on the floor.  Yes, you'd get cases but again they've assumed the risk so why do you care?
> 
> Option 7 isn't ideal for a stadium, but some are planning vaccinated sections without masks....we'll see if it works out....partially depends on how CDC requirements involved, but I thought camps, not stadiums were better candidates.  The masks in any case are not to reduce cases....that's not their purpose....it's security theater to avoid liability and/or appease concerned customers.


And hey Mr. Preach3r, why not blame the unvaccinated....they were offered their opportunity, don't they bear their consequences?


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 7, 2021)

I guess it isn’t difficult to see who has truly prospered in this pandemic.

If the “social norm” needs to be wearing a mask wherever you go in public places for eternity, just give me the virus and kill me know…..oh wait….there is an over 90% survival rate….shit…that won’t work.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You think a mask requirement in a sports stadium environment can be effectively enforced on half the patrons but not the other half?
> 
> And you accuse me of living in Fantasyland.....


Enforcing the use of unregulated mask is effective?


----------



## Desert Hound (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes, you'd get cases but again they've assumed the risk so why do you care?


This is the thing that continually escapes dad. 

If you don't want to get vaccinated you assume the risk. So why worry about them. 

The at risk group...very old people...have gotten vaccinated at extremely high rates. That is where 80% of the deaths have occurred. The other 20%? It is almost exclusively people with serious health issues. 

So as of now you have the oldest age group vaccinated at a very high rate. Presumably in the younger age groups anyone with a health issue has also gotten vaccinated. 

Problem solved.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> My thoughts exactly. People wear their masks improperly all the time in mask mandatory situations. Like we say about safety glasses, “they aren’t doing you any good hanging from your neck”.


Just make sure your mask is on and you'll be good.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’m still not seeing...............


227 pages prove that.  Know what else you can't see?


----------



## dad4 (May 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I guess it isn’t difficult to see who has truly prospered in this pandemic.
> 
> If the “social norm” needs to be wearing a mask wherever you go in public places for eternity, just give me the virus and kill me know…..oh wait….there is an over 90% survival rate….shit…that won’t work.


Covid won't do it, but there are other viruses.  Also bacteria and prions, if you need.

I think you're better off with a croissant and a cup of coffee, though.  The social norm of wearing a mask everywhere won't last long.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Covid won't do it, but there are other viruses.  Also bacteria and prions, if you need.
> 
> I think you're better off with a croissant and a cup of coffee, though.  The social norm of wearing a mask everywhere won't last long.


What will you do now?


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Covid won't do it, but there are other viruses.  Also bacteria and prions, if you need.
> 
> I think you're better off with a croissant and a cup of coffee, though.  The social norm of wearing a mask everywhere won't last long.


Within this quote we might opine that you would favor mask wearing, not just for COVID but other illnesses, indefinitely, you just recognize it's not feasible?


----------



## Glitterhater (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Within this quote we might opine that you would favor mask wearing, not just for COVID but other illnesses, indefinitely, you just recognize it's not feasible?


I don't mind masks personally. Keeps those annoying, close talkers out of my face! I still don't understand how people don't realize you don't need to be thisclose!!! when talking to one another.


----------



## dad4 (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Within this quote we might opine that you would favor mask wearing, not just for COVID but other illnesses, indefinitely, you just recognize it's not feasible?


That quote was just a smart ass reply to kicker's sarcastic pseudo death wish.  Masks don't do much for prions, if you think about it.

I do favor wider acceptance of flu shots.  I also will probably keep my mask on public transit during flu season.  Not sure about that one.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Within this quote we might opine that you would favor mask wearing, not just for COVID but other illnesses, indefinitely, you just recognize it's not feasible?


Before Covid I always saw people wearing masks in Japan. Common place courtesy, either they are sick or vulnerable.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 7, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I don't mind masks personally. Keeps those annoying, close talkers out of my face! I still don't understand how people don't realize you don't need to be thisclose!!! when talking to one another.


Whisperers/soft talkers do that, like everything is a secret.


----------



## Grace T. (May 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Before Covid I always saw people wearing masks in Japan. Common place courtesy, either they are sick or vulnerable.


in Asia it’s also an air pollution and allergy thing


----------



## N00B (May 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> in Asia it’s also an air pollution and allergy thing


Very much an air pollution thing.... and they’re not n95’s.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 7, 2021)

Sushi and Ramen indoor dining tonite at Chopstix in Kearney Mesa.  5 of the 15 tables filled with an outside dining option.  Free to wear or not wear mask.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> in Asia it’s also an air pollution and allergy thing


Kinda exactly the point. Are you reading what you posted to dad?


----------



## espola (May 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> in Asia it’s also an air pollution and allergy thing


What kind of air pollution did you have in mind there?


----------



## crush (May 8, 2021)

@espola First off, I love all your soccer takes.  When I first visited the forum in 2012, it was you that had so much soccer knowledge.  You have a Ph.D. in youth soccer because of the experience.  Only through experiencing trial and error is one truly a master at his craft.  Some people also cheat and then take all the credit for being smart.  They steal ideas and cheat to win.  What are your thoughts about this story circulated?


----------



## crush (May 8, 2021)

If this story is true, then Edison kind of reminds me of the "shake guy" that tricked the McDonald bros out of keeping their food real.  Those two made real Cheese Burgers, real potato French fries and shakes made with real ice cream.  Kroch had a quicker way to make shakes and a quicker way to make a buck.  Also, Remember Waterboys Coach Kline got his plays taken from Coach Red?  This is all starting to come together and we can all see how some like to win and get ahead.  Thoughts?


----------



## crush (May 8, 2021)

Maybe soccer can be free some day?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Before Covid I always saw people wearing masks in Japan. Common place courtesy, either they are sick or vulnerable.


That’s because they were always nut to butt at the train stations and on the train.  For corona, mask are pretty useless to begin with.  Even more so for the daily train traffic.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 8, 2021)

Tesla Good, Edison Bad


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 8, 2021)

Tesla or Edison. Which one was a hitchiker


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nonsense


Don’t mind Vaxspola.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 9, 2021)

espola said:


> That, too.


Yah.  That too Sarspola.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 9, 2021)

Soccer Bum 06 said:


> The most disappointing part of our democratic republic has been the silence of the judicial branch during this period.  Knowing that many of the edicts being put forth by state and local governments are unconstitutional, this branch of government has failed along with the others. It is just another political body and no longer a check against the other branches.


Maybe they’re holding back the court packing movement?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1333539332330643456


Shocking!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We will know more in a few days as the Thanksgiving infections start to come in.  Maybe people were smart enough to have their meals separately.


Putting the CON in hypochondria


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 9, 2021)

espola said:


> She:   I have told you a dozen times that if you don't slow down before the curve, you are going off the road.
> He:  I have put the brakes on every time just like you said, and we never went off the road - so I'm not listening to you any more.


The Dadspola School of Driving


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Much rather be on team blowhard than on team scared and delusional


Dad4 won’t touch the history of how we’ve dealt with a long history of respiratory diseases like SARs-1.  He is comparing Corona numbers and policy to itself. That’s where he loses all statistical credibility.  That he feels obligated to opine on public policy is comical.


----------



## Grace T. (May 9, 2021)

Rewatched “contagion” recently. Wondered how it held up after all this. Covid has an r0 originally some where around 1.5 but as high as 4 for variants and an ifr somewhere in the neighborhood of .4% depending on demographics. The disease in the film mutates into an r0 of at least 4 and an ifr of 25%.  Ultimately my conclusion based on what’s happened in real life is if the fictional scenario were to happen society would collapse. The film has some suggestions of that: looted markets and banks, garbage collected in the street, the military handing out food. But given that an ifr of what was originally thought to be 2% and people reacted as they did, an ifr anywhere in the neighborhood of the film would have collapsed food oil and power production, overwhelmed the hospitals, caused the collapse of grid systems like the power plumbing and internet infrastructure and caused the military to disintegrate.  We got lucky it didn’t hit children hard or we would have lost anyone who had children from the essential workers even in hospital settings.  They won’t be able next time to cajole essential workers with nonsense like masks are better than vaccines.  The film underestimated the seriousness of collapse such a disease would cause and in our own world had the ifr really been 2% and hit people of all ages we would have gotten close to what we saw in the film.  Also note the film underestimated the amount of time needed to make a vaccine and overestimated the amount of time to deploy it.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Rewatched “contagion” recently. Wondered how it held up after all this. Covid has an r0 originally some where around 1.5 but as high as 4 for variants and an ifr somewhere in the neighborhood of .4% depending on demographics. The disease in the film mutates into an r0 of at least 4 and an ifr of 25%.  Ultimately my conclusion based on what’s happened in real life is if the fictional scenario were to happen society would collapse. The film has some suggestions of that: looted markets and banks, garbage collected in the street, the military handing out food. But given that an ifr of what was originally thought to be 2% and people reacted as they did, an ifr anywhere in the neighborhood of the film would have collapsed food oil and power production, overwhelmed the hospitals, caused the collapse of grid systems like the power plumbing and internet infrastructure and caused the military to disintegrate.  We got lucky it didn’t hit children hard or we would have lost anyone who had children from the essential workers even in hospital settings.  They won’t be able next time to cajole essential workers with nonsense like masks are better than vaccines.  The film underestimated the seriousness of collapse such a disease would cause and in our own world had the ifr really been 2% and hit people of all ages we would have gotten close to what we saw in the film.  Also note the film underestimated the amount of time needed to make a vaccine and overestimated the amount of time to deploy it.


I'd guess the R0 for the "original" is higher than 1.5 as many people quickly adjusted their behavior. Just a guess. Also, as we have seen, there is a seasonal effect on R0 as well. R0 is a moving target. A cynic might say that is perfect for the purposes of @dad4. Just kidding, dad.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 9, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'd guess the R0 for the "original" is higher than 1.5 as many people quickly adjusted their behavior. Just a guess. Also, as we have seen, there is a seasonal effect on R0 as well. R0 is a moving target. A cynic might say that is perfect for the purposes of @dad4. Just kidding, dad.


Why wouldn’t it be a moving target if its being compared to itself and not SARs-1?


----------



## dad4 (May 9, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'd guess the R0 for the "original" is higher than 1.5 as many people quickly adjusted their behavior. Just a guess. Also, as we have seen, there is a seasonal effect on R0 as well. R0 is a moving target. A cynic might say that is perfect for the purposes of @dad4. Just kidding, dad.


The estimates I remember were around R0=3 for wild type covid.  4 or 5 for some of the variants.

Seasonality:
It’s big, but i’m not sure how big.  I havent seen a seasonally adjusted set of R0 values.  It would help make sense of things.  Covid peaked in fall at about 10% infected, and then peaked again in January at around 40% infected.  That’s a big jump in R, about 50%:  1.11 to 1.66.

NPI-  

The difference between CA under purple rules and CA under orange is also pretty striking.  (Team virus won’t like this part.)

Back in January, we had less than 10% vaccinated, winter weather, purple rules, and covid numbers were falling rapidly.
Today, we have 50% vaccinated, spring weather, orange rules, and covid numbers are falling slowly.

The obvious, and unwelcome, conclusion is that the NPI worked.  Whatever we were doing in January was worth slightly more than the combined effects of nice weather and an additional 40% vaccinated.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The estimates I remember were around R0=3 for wild type covid.  4 or 5 for some of the variants.
> 
> Seasonality:
> It’s big, but i’m not sure how big.  I havent seen a seasonally adjusted set of R0 values.  It would help make sense of things.  Covid peaked in fall at about 10% infected, and then peaked again in January at around 40% infected.  That’s a big jump in R, about 50%:  1.11 to 1.66.
> ...


By the time we got to January we burned through so many folks here in CA I am not sure how many "spreaders" remained. We had those last pushes over the holidays where there was a lot of travel, then it dropped like a rock. The CA case graph looks strikingly like North Dakota. The faster the cases go up, the faster than come down. What were the NPI in ND?


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> By the time we got to January we burned through so many folks here in CA I am not sure how many "spreaders" remained. We had those last pushes over the holidays where there was a lot of travel, then it dropped like a rock. The CA case graph looks strikingly like North Dakota. The faster the cases go up, the faster than come down. What were the NPI in ND?


The point is more that the percent of available spreaders in May is lower than the percent of available spreaders in January.  There is far more immunity now than there was in January.  Between vaccines, weather, and acquired immunity, our numbers should be falling a lot faster now than they did in January.  Instead, our numbers are falling more slowly: the half life for daily case rate is more than twice what is was back then.  

So, something is worse now than it was then.  And that something (or somethings) is big enough to offset the three major factors in our favor.  NPI seems the most likely candidate.  ( The other possibility is a new variant, but such a variant would have to be significantly more transmissible than the high transmission variant LA already went through.  Unlikely, but _*very*_ bad news if that is the case. )

I don’t know what NPI there were in ND, or how you would measure it.   My impression is that it was weak and mostly at a very individual level.  Some people were choosing to wear masks and/or avoid indoor spaces, some were not.  Dropping that would have a smaller impact.

To test the NPi theory, look for states which had major NPI and moderate case rates, and then dropped the NPI, I would expect to see a bump or a decline in the rate of improvement.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Back in January, we had less than 10% vaccinated, winter weather, purple rules, and covid numbers were falling rapidly.
> Today, we have 50% vaccinated, spring weather, orange rules, and covid numbers are falling slowly.
> 
> --
> ...


I worry about you. See graphs below.




dad4 said:


> So, something is worse now than it was then.


Something is worse now vs back in Jan?

In Dec/Jan you were looking at 35-40k new cases per day.

In May CA is at 2500 cases per day.

Something is a LOT better now vs Jan. It is NOT WORSE.


Daily deaths?

CA was at 650 to 700 deaths per day in Jan. Today? mid 60s to occasionally 90s.

That is a substantial improvement.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 10, 2021)

So a few weeks ago Canadian authorities wanted to enter his church. He didn't allow that.

The state would not be denied and arrested him recently.

I guess this is how @dad4 would like to see things done.

I prefer a system where a Constitution limits the power of the government. But that is just me. 

By the way funny how the roles have reversed. In the 60s the left was fighting the man. Today? They can't get enough of government rules, intervention, etc. 









						Canadian Pastor Swarmed and Arrested by 'SWAT' Team for 'Inciting' People to Attend Church
					

The last time we saw Canadian Pastor Artur Pawlowski he was seen on video chasing cops out of his church and calling them Nazis. They were there to inspect his church for too many parishioners on Good...




					pjmedia.com


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I worry about you. See graphs below.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My assumption was he was being toungein cheek.  After all Los Angeles had a mask mandate and indoor dining shut since last may.  It shut outdoor dining in early December so clearly shutting outdoor dining is what caused that massive spike.  It then opened outdoor dining in late January which obviously caused a slow down in the rate in decline. One can therefore clearly and obviously conclude that government messing around with outdoor dining is what causes changes in cases.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 10, 2021)

Colleagues Silent On CDC Retaliation Against 'Superstar' Scientist
					

This climate of secrecy, retaliation, and intimidation is not a good look for a supposedly apolitical agency many suspect is scientifically compromised.




					thefederalist.com


----------



## crush (May 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So a few weeks ago Canadian authorities wanted to enter his church. He didn't allow that.
> 
> The state would not be denied and arrested him recently.
> 
> ...


I got asked and given a mask to put on this morning at grocery store as I was in line to pay.  Last night in same shopping center, I got Thai with family to celebrate Mama day and we did not have to wear a mask.  I was nice and took the mask but didnt put it on.  She goes, "sir, I gave you a mask can you please put it on?"  I told her nicely, "no."  I also told her not to worry anymore.  She started to tear up, and told me, "I dont know what to believe anymore."  I told her to fix her eyes on the author of Life and all will go well for you.  Fear of death is real folks and this is all about driving fear of death so they can control you.  She thanked me and we both gave each other a fist pump.  It's starting to get real and when its get real, we will see the truth.  What one does with the truth is up to them


----------



## crush (May 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Colleagues Silent On CDC Retaliation Against 'Superstar' Scientist
> 
> 
> This climate of secrecy, retaliation, and intimidation is not a good look for a supposedly apolitical agency many suspect is scientifically compromised.
> ...


Yup, when you speak up Hound on what the real truth is, your true friends will stand by you ((if you have true friends)) and your fair weather friends will bail on you because they aren't true friends.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My assumption was he was being toungein cheek.  After all Los Angeles had a mask mandate and indoor dining shut since last may.  It shut outdoor dining in early December so clearly shutting outdoor dining is what caused that massive spike.  It then opened outdoor dining in late January which obviously caused a slow down in the rate in decline. One can therefore clearly and obviously conclude that government messing around with outdoor dining is what causes changes in cases.


Try hound‘s graph on a log scale.  Or graph daily cases versus change in daily cases.  Or even just look at how many days does it take for case rates to divide by 2.

The percentage rate of decline is worse now than it was in January.  It should be considerably better, but it isn’t.

The basic shape of the graph is forced by the logistics equation:   P’ = kP(1-P).   Daily cases are P’.  Total cases are P.   It’s a fancy way of saying that the number of new cases depends on how many times an infected person (P) meets an uninfected person. (1-P).  This is why all areas have a shape that looks somewhat similar.  That graph you are used to seeing is the graph of P’.   There is no real way around the basic shape.  

My point is that the rate of decline should be improving.  Instead, it has gotten worse.  The right side of the curve is stretching out further than it ought to.  

This can be a conscious decision.  We may have decided that the economic and social cost of NPI outweighs the years of life lost among vaccine hold outs and immunocompromised people.  It may even have been a decision that NPI are inconsistent with vaccines.  (Who will take the vaccine if numbers are already near 0? )

But it is pretty clear evidence that dropping the NPI caused a significant upward shift in transmission.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The point is more that the percent of available spreaders in May is lower than the percent of available spreaders in January.  There is far more immunity now than there was in January.  Between vaccines, weather, and acquired immunity, our numbers should be falling a lot faster now than they did in January.  Instead, our numbers are falling more slowly: the half life for daily case rate is more than twice what is was back then.
> 
> So, something is worse now than it was then.  And that something (or somethings) is big enough to offset the three major factors in our favor.  NPI seems the most likely candidate.  ( The other possibility is a new variant, but such a variant would have to be significantly more transmissible than the high transmission variant LA already went through.  Unlikely, but _*very*_ bad news if that is the case. )
> 
> ...


Every place in the world that went through a winter or spring wave has this tail to their curve where cases remain plateaued. Spain Italy Czech Republic Texas California Hawaii South Korea.  It’s everywhere. More than npi it’s probably mobility (because again it’s impossible for people to lock themselves up a year plus with once weekly takeout unless you  are dad4).

even last summer no one went to zero so as long as there are some people who aren’t immune the thing will keep circulating until the threshold (which from India we know now is more than 75%) is reached, if ever (since the thought among many experts is the thing is endemic).


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Try hound‘s graph on a log scale.  Or graph daily cases versus change in daily cases.  Or even just look at how many days does it take for case rates to divide by 2.
> 
> The percentage rate of decline is worse now than it was in January.  It should be considerably better, but it isn’t.
> 
> ...


It’s not npi but mobility.  You see the same tail in Sweden and Florida for instance.

but in any case this is also where you divorce from reality into math world. If caseskeep slowing they must eventually approach but not reach zero til you get down to one patient or so per week.  This runs contrary to the notion that it’s endemic. Reason?  You can’t lock up the population in perpetuity and as long as people are circulating and the thing is endemic (meaning there is no herd immunity even at 95% because the thing is constantly mutating) you are always going to see that effect regardless of npis.


----------



## crush (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Try hound‘s graph on a log scale.  Or graph daily cases versus change in daily cases.  Or even just look at how many days does it take for case rates to divide by 2.
> 
> The percentage rate of decline is worse now than it was in January.  It should be considerably better, but it isn’t.
> 
> ...


Dude, give it up.  Seriously, you need help.  I told everyone on here a long time ago what this was about.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Try hound‘s graph on a log scale.  Or graph daily cases versus change in daily cases.  Or even just look at how many days does it take for case rates to divide by 2.
> 
> The percentage rate of decline is worse now than it was in January.  It should be considerably better, but it isn’t.
> 
> ...


The problem is it is not surprising the numbers plateau. 

The best case estimate of vaccine effectiveness is 95%. That means even if everyone was vaccinated this thing is floating around and infecting people. 

As more get vaccinated the numbers will drop a bit more. However it won't go to zero.
This will be with us for years/decades to come. It is never going to zero. 

It has however dropped to a good level. 

While you look at the graphs and think we need to be stricter.

The rest of the world looks at the data and think well done. OK we can move on and live life. 

We are at the point of diminishing returns. Trying to lock down or limit stuff to push the numbers to zero isn't worthwhile, effective, or even something the vast majority of people will consider. 

Most of us look at the numbers and say we are good to go. You for some reason think things still look bad and want more intervention. 

The real world is moving on and not willing to try what you prefer.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s not npi but mobility.  You see the same tail in Sweden and Florida for instance.
> 
> but in any case this is also where you divorce from reality into math world. If caseskeep slowing they must eventually approach but not reach zero til you get down to one patient or so per week.  This runs contrary to the notion that it’s endemic. Reason?  You can’t lock up the population in perpetuity and as long as people are circulating and the thing is endemic (meaning there is no herd immunity even at 95% because the thing is constantly mutating) you are always going to see that effect regardless of npis.


Not all mobility drives up cases.   More people are going out now.  But, if they go out to the local rose garden, it doesn’t drive up cases.  It is mobility to indoor locations that matters.  

At that point, you’re just playing with semantics.  Call it NPI for closing/avoiding the indoor location. Or call it mobility, for going to the indoor location.  It’s the same thing.

I do not find the hand-waving assertions about “endemic” to be convincing.  There is a lot of ground between 750 deaths per day and “not quite eradicated”.   You are using the word “endemic” to make the two sound equal, despite the fact that they are not.


----------



## crush (May 10, 2021)

@dad4 Do you need me to tell you what this is really all about?  Where are all the missing kids dad?  Where are they?  Where is Mr Hanx?  Why is Billy getting a divorce?  Why did Billy fly around with Jeffrey?  Everything will be revealed soon dad.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 10, 2021)

Ummm....NO!









						Fauci says masks could become 'seasonal' wear after pandemic
					

Dr. Anthony Fauci said wearing face masks could become a “seasonal” norm following the pandemic.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Ummm....NO!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Why not?  Fake vaccines require the use of mask that create stronger and more resistant virus's that are more transmissible than the last virus.  Just sayin'.


----------



## crush (May 10, 2021)

It's about the kids.  Stop talking about this stupid virus.  This was planned.  The kids need our help.  Stop wasting time on stupid arguments and foolish takes from fools.  What a waste of time.  My advice is go find a tent and stay in it for 24 hours and get yourself ready to deal with all the truth that will be coming out in movie form for all of us to watch. Crimes against humanity.  It's always been about the kids.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Every place in the world that went through a winter or spring wave has this tail to their curve where cases remain plateaued. Spain Italy Czech Republic Texas California Hawaii South Korea.  It’s everywhere. More than npi it’s probably mobility (because again it’s impossible for people to lock themselves up a year plus with once weekly takeout unless you  are dad4).
> 
> even last summer no one went to zero so as long as there are some people who aren’t immune the thing will keep circulating until the threshold (which from India we know now is more than 75%) is reached, if ever (since the thought among many experts is the thing is endemic).


Are there any places in the world which did not relax their NPI once they were past peak?  (or, as in Europe last summer, once they thought they were past peak.)

It seems you are saying that everywhere had a peak, then fast decline, then relax, then plateau/slow decline.  This is entirely consistent with the claim that some part of NPI was working.

I am not arguing that the economic cost of NPI is worth paying when we have a vaccination rate over 50%.  I am just saying that the plateau/decline in rate of improvement is evidence that the NPI were effective.   

Estimating the economic and social cost of NPI is a completely different question.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

crush said:


> @dad4 Do you need me to tell you what this is really all about?  Where are all the missing kids dad?  Where are they?  Where is Mr Hanx?  Why is Billy getting a divorce?  Why did Billy fly around with Jeffrey?  Everything will be revealed soon dad.


I really have no interest in finding out which billionaires can’t keep their pants zipped.  

Bill and Melinda have done the world a huge service with their philanthropy.  Their efforts on malaria have already saved millions of lives.  Less importantly, we got through covid with a lot less pain, in part because of the foundational vaccine research they have supported over the past 25 years.  

I wish them both well in their separate futures.


----------



## crush (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Are there any places in the world which did not relax their NPI once they were past peak?  (or, as in Europe last summer, once they thought they were past peak.)
> 
> It seems you are saying that everywhere had a peak, then fast decline, then relax, then plateau/slow decline.  This is entirely consistent with the claim that some part of NPI was working.
> 
> ...


Again, this is about the killing and torture of kids and saving them and our country from pure evil and I mean the purest evil their is, which we all know is Diablo, or Satan or Lucifer and a 1/3 of the Angels.  This is bigger than us.  Like I said a long time ago, this is about a choice.  Will you choose the Light or the Darkness. This is not about some demic dad.  That is a 100% distraction so you can focus on divison and hate and not love and trust. Good will win and evil will be destroyed someday. Look how much time you have wasted on false math dude.  Go out and help the kids.  I just got back from helping people and kids for 6 days and I might have found a new career to boot


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Estimating the economic and social cost of NPI is a completely different question.


You mean because we didn't employ NPI on the same scale and narrative during SAR's-1?


----------



## crush (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *I really have no interest in finding out which billionaires can’t keep their pants zipped. *
> 
> Bill and Melinda have done the world a huge service with their philanthropy.  Their efforts on malaria have already saved millions of lives.  Less importantly, we got through covid with a lot less pain, in part because of the foundational vaccine research they have supported over the past 25 years.
> 
> I wish them both well in their separate futures.


Yes I know you dont give a fuck if adult male billionaires unzip their pants for all the ___________________________________.  Do you think Billy was with Jeffrey and these were consenting adult models they were playing with?  Oh please, WTFU dad.  What kind of dad are you anyways?  I will send you some videos dad.  These are super intense and for your eyes only.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Less importantly, we got through covid with a lot less pain, in part because of the foundational vaccine research they have supported over the past 25 years.


You know what else happened in the last 25 years?  Probably not.  Which is why you made the clueless statement above.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not all mobility drives up cases.   More people are going out now.  But, if they go out to the local rose garden, it doesn’t drive up cases.  It is mobility to indoor locations that matters.
> 
> At that point, you’re just playing with semantics.  Call it NPI for closing/avoiding the indoor location. Or call it mobility, for going to the indoor location.  It’s the same thing.
> 
> I do not find the hand-waving assertions about “endemic” to be convincing.  There is a lot of ground between 750 deaths per day and “not quite eradicated”.   You are using the word “endemic” to make the two sound equal, despite the fact that they are not.


And you are making a basic math mistake that a reduction of cases ever gets to zero in math world....It just keeps halving (or whatever reduction %)

1. different places started with different npis and then relaxed which got the same result irrespective of their baselines...what then does that say about npis?
2. Mobility and npis are not the same thing.  Mobility depends on the extent people freak out and perceive a danger. Npis can help stoke or relax it but short of australia arresting people leaving their homes can’t control it 1 to 1
3. If I relax outside and go for a stroll with my friend who is sick for a half hour even if it’s outside I’m still going to get sick.  Being outside is no more of a silver bullet than masks are.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> And you are making a basic math mistake that a reduction of cases ever gets to zero in math world....It just keeps halving (or whatever reduction %)
> 
> 1. different places started with different npis and then relaxed which got the same result irrespective of their baselines...what then does that say about npis?
> 2. Mobility and npis are not the same thing.  Mobility depends on the extent people freak out and perceive a danger. Npis can help stoke or relax it but short of australia arresting people leaving their homes can’t control it 1 to 1
> 3. If I relax outside and go for a stroll with my friend who is sick for a half hour even if it’s outside I’m still going to get sick.  Being outside is no more of a silver bullet than masks are.


Cases fall to the point that the assumptions underlying the model become invalid.

You're throwing around words because you can't follow the math.  I can.  And the math cares about whether people eat at home, but not why.   It could be a county health order, a lack of spending money, or just general fear.  If they cause the same behavior change, all have exactly the same effect on transmission.

3- enjoy your walk outside with your sick friend.  With light masks and 6 feet


----------



## watfly (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Being outside is no more of a silver bullet than masks are.


It isn't a silver bullet, but I trust being outside without a mask way more than being indoors with a mask.  I don't have any data to support it, but moving everything outside was my family's, and the majority of our friends, primary tactic against Covid.  It worked flawlessly.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> It isn't a silver bullet, but I trust being outside without a mask way more than being indoors with a mask.  I don't have any data to support it, but moving everything outside was my family's, and the majority of our friends, primary tactic against Covid.  It worked flawlessly.


Agree but I doubt you hung around with outside 3rd parties that were showing symptoms.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Cases fall to the point that the assumptions underlying the model become invalid.
> 
> You're throwing around words because you can't follow the math.  I can.  And the math cares about whether people eat at home, but not why.   It could be a county health order, a lack of spending money, or just general fear.  If they cause the same behavior change, all have exactly the same effect on transmission.
> 
> 3- enjoy your walk outside with your sick friend.  With light masks and 6 feet


You just conceded then a health order is unnecessary so long as the population is sufficiently fearful.  Fear is not an NPI.  It's people making decisions over what they want to do with their lives.

It's funny that in math world friends walk 6 feet apart. Does one walk in front and the other in back?  On either side of the sidewalk making way when someone walks in the opposite direction?  Just another example of how divorced from reality your math world is.  At least you concede that a certain point the math behind the model falls apart...progress.  What does the math say about a Farr curve?


----------



## crush (May 10, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 10, 2021)

*Veterans group slams NYC decision to deny permit for Memorial Day march while allowing Cannabis Parade*
*Veterans and their attorney point to a 'sickening' double standard*


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You just conceded then a health order is unnecessary so long as the population is sufficiently fearful.  Fear is not an NPI.  It's people making decisions over what they want to do with their lives.
> 
> It's funny that in math world friends walk 6 feet apart. Does one walk in front and the other in back?  On either side of the sidewalk making way when someone walks in the opposite direction?  Just another example of how divorced from reality your math world is.  At least you concede that a certain point the math behind the model falls apart...progress.  What does the math say about a Farr curve?


The Farr curve is the first derivative of a sigmoid.  AKA the solution to a logistics equation.  It’s that shape you can’t get away from.

I like to hike.  6 feet is kind of close for hiking, even before covid.  One person 10 feet behind the other is more common.  Less space is needed when you pass opposing traffic, because time of exposure is so short.  (All of which you already knew.  Why ask?)

A health order closing restaurants is irrelevant if no one wants to eat out.   I would have thought that was pretty obvious.   

I don’t really care which word you use.  You can call it NPI.  You can call it changes to mobility.  You can call it “Dad4’s evil authoritarian control system”.   Semantics is boring.  The interesting fact is that whatever we were doing in January and February was effective.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Cases fall to the point that the assumptions underlying the model become invalid.
> 
> You're throwing around words because you can't follow the math.  I can.  And the math cares about whether people eat at home, but not why.   It could be a county health order, a lack of spending money, or just general fear.  If they cause the same behavior change, all have exactly the same effect on transmission.
> 
> 3- enjoy your walk outside with your sick friend.  With light masks and 6 feet


You throw around the math because you don't want to compare present NPI's to a long history of relatively non-interventionist NPI's during past respiratory pandemics.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The Farr curve is the first derivative of a sigmoid.  AKA the solution to a logistics equation.  It’s that shape you can’t get away from.
> 
> I like to hike.  6 feet is kind of close for hiking, even before covid.  One person 10 feet behind the other is more common.  Less space is needed when you pass opposing traffic, because time of exposure is so short.  (All of which you already knew.  Why ask?)
> 
> ...


Nonsense


----------



## watfly (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The Farr curve is the first derivative of a sigmoid.


Is this math or Dungeons and Dragons?  I'm really having a hard time keeping up.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The Farr curve is the first derivative of a sigmoid.  AKA the solution to a logistics equation.  It’s that shape you can’t get away from.
> 
> I like to hike.  6 feet is kind of close for hiking, even before covid.  One person 10 feet behind the other is more common.  Less space is needed when you pass opposing traffic, because time of exposure is so short.  (All of which you already knew.  Why ask?)
> 
> ...


Like vaccinating people and having a large portion of the state already infected?  Got it.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Like vaccinating people and having a large portion of the state already infected?  Got it.


Two different questions with 2 different answers.

Q1- does the recent bump in R demonstrate that NPI worked.  (yes)

Q2- does the recent slowdown in R demonstrate that we should reimpose purple rules.  (no)

For the first, dropping NPI is, by far, the best explanation for the March/April increase in transmissibility.  You keep ignoring this angle. 

For the second, the total number of cases/deaths potentially avoided by a May/June return to purple is too small to be worth the cost.   It’s also completely unnecessary for the 70% of adults who are getting their shots.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Two different questions with 2 different answers.
> 
> Q1- does the recent bump in R demonstrate that NPI worked.  (yes)
> 
> ...


Color me shocked.  You actually did a cost/benefit analysis.

Again, it's not just NPIs.  It's people relaxing after their grandmas had been vaccinated, as cases go down so you have less of a chance getting it, as people begin to return to normal (as seen in freeway traffic).  Case in point: son's soccer team.  They were allowed to continue practicing in December/January but because "cases were too high" and everyone had to go into quarantine and get tested because 1 family came down with it (no one caught it at practice) they decided not to.    Yes, NPIs have some impact on mobility, but as we've seen in Sweden and Florida, people will distance irrespective of big government coercion.  My business, for example, shut down a week before the government had mandated it back in spring 2020.  The Belgium curve also began to inflect the week before the government imposed lockdowns, indicating that people were probably moderating their behavior by distancing (the fact that Belgium also has a tail to its curve means not everyone has been infected  and India has shown us the threshold is somewhere north of 75% quite possibly with the variants north of 100%.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

Boris Johnson ends the mask mandate in schools.  The UK has had one of the toughest lockdown systems.  We should follow the example in the fall.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> For the second, the total number of cases/deaths potentially avoided by a May/June return to purple is too small to be worth the cost.   It’s also completely unnecessary for the 70% of adults who are getting their shots.


Interesting!  If I’m following the logic, the adults (65+) which represented 10% of cases but 76% of the deaths should have been the ones to isolate because the other 90% were relatively unaffected?

I’m sure I’ve misinterpreted your logic, but totally agree with what I stated above.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The point is more that the percent of available spreaders in May is lower than the percent of available spreaders in January.  There is far more immunity now than there was in January.  Between vaccines, weather, and acquired immunity, our numbers should be falling a lot faster now than they did in January.  Instead, our numbers are falling more slowly: the half life for daily case rate is more than twice what is was back then.
> 
> So, something is worse now than it was then.  And that something (or somethings) is big enough to offset the three major factors in our favor.  NPI seems the most likely candidate.  ( The other possibility is a new variant, but such a variant would have to be significantly more transmissible than the high transmission variant LA already went through.  Unlikely, but _*very*_ bad news if that is the case. )
> 
> ...


There's an underlying assumption that the virus behaves the same way when it is widespread vs. when it is not - as if some sort of law defines the "linearity" of the behavior. I'm not convinced the virus behavior is very well understood based on the percentage of poor predictions. There's a possibility that the behavior at relatively small numbers is different, or at the very least masked by the behavior when cases are rampant.

Also, I'd have to guess that a lot of children are passing it around quite freely now. For some reason, there are parents out there that don't believe locking their kids up for multiple years is a good idea for something that is no more risk to children than the flu. No doubt, many have mild, if any, symptoms. I'm also guessing many are questioning the value of reporting the symptoms at all. Once we get those between 12 and 16 vaccinated in decent numbers, I bet we see cases drop significantly.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Color me shocked.  You actually did a cost/benefit analysis.
> 
> Again, it's not just NPIs.  It's people relaxing after their grandmas had been vaccinated, as cases go down so you have less of a chance getting it, as people begin to return to normal (as seen in freeway traffic).  Case in point: son's soccer team.  They were allowed to continue practicing in December/January but because "cases were too high" and everyone had to go into quarantine and get tested because 1 family came down with it (no one caught it at practice) they decided not to.    Yes, NPIs have some impact on mobility, but as we've seen in Sweden and Florida, people will distance irrespective of big government coercion.  My business, for example, shut down a week before the government had mandated it back in spring 2020.  The Belgium curve also began to inflect the week before the government imposed lockdowns, indicating that people were probably moderating their behavior by distancing (the fact that Belgium also has a tail to its curve means not everyone has been infected  and India has shown us the threshold is somewhere north of 75% quite possibly with the variants north of 100%.


The fact that Belgium “has a tail to its curve“ proves nothing.  Every single state, country, and province in the world has a tail to its curve.  That’s just the shape of a bell curve.  It has a tail.  It is a side effect of the fact that things die out exponentially.

Nor should you read anything into the existence and timing of the inflection point.  A bell curve has two inflection points, one on the right and one on the left.   It’s just a side effect of trying to draw a curve with a maximum and a tail.  Try it.  You always get an inflection point.  It doesn’t mean anything.

You’re reading lots of stuff into parts of the graph that are completely meaningless.   Those features exist in every single graph that could ever be drawn.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Interesting!  If I’m following the logic, the adults (65+) which represented 10% of cases but 76% of the deaths should have been the ones to isolate because the other 90% were relatively unaffected?
> 
> I’m sure I’ve misinterpreted your logic, but totally agree with what I stated above.


You misinterpreted it.  I don’t believe it is possible to isolate the elderly to the degree necessary to block covid transmission.  You can expose them unnecessarily, like New York did.  But there is a limit to how well you can protect them.

It was more pure cost/benefit.  The total number of remaining cases for CA is small.  We have 1800 per day, declining by about 2% per day.  That’s about 900K infections left before it is mostly over.  Perhaps another 1500 deaths.  We could cut that to 500 deaths by returning to purple for the next 4 months.  But that’s a small gain.  We could do more good by letting the economy grow and investing heavily in vaccine outreach.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> For the first, dropping NPI is, by far, the best explanation for the March/April increase in transmissibility.  You keep ignoring this angle.


Here, I fixed it for you:

Actually, *adding* NPI is, by far , the best explanation for the March/April increase in transmissibility. You keep ignoring this angle.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> There's an underlying assumption that the virus behaves the same way when it is widespread vs. when it is not - as if some sort of law defines the "linearity" of the behavior. I'm not convinced the virus behavior is very well understood based on the percentage of poor predictions. There's a possibility that the behavior at relatively small numbers is different, or at the very least masked by the behavior when cases are rampant.
> 
> Also, I'd have to guess that a lot of children are passing it around quite freely now. For some reason, there are parents out there that don't believe locking their kids up for multiple years is a good idea for something that is no more risk to children than the flu. No doubt, many have mild, if any, symptoms. I'm also guessing many are questioning the value of reporting the symptoms at all. Once we get those between 12 and 16 vaccinated in decent numbers, I bet we see cases drop significantly.


Probably more a function of less PCR testing.


----------



## watfly (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don’t believe it is possible to isolate the elderly to the degree necessary to block covid transmission.  You can expose them unnecessarily, like New York did.  But there is a limit to how well you can protect them.


I don't think anyone from "Team Virus" would disagree with this.  You can only mitigate, not block the virus.  I still think we could have mitigated the impact to the vulnerable with a targeted approach without putting a grossly unnecessary burden on the rest of the population, particularly our children.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You misinterpreted it.  I don’t believe it is possible to isolate the elderly to the degree necessary to block covid transmission.  You can expose them unnecessarily, like New York did.  But there is a limit to how well you can protect them.


Prednisone worked just fine for the six 80+ year olds that I know were infected.  Saw one of them at the Winery yesterday soaking up some vitamin D and a glass of Quercetins.   



dad4 said:


> It was more pure cost/benefit.  The total number of remaining cases for CA is small.  We have 1800 per day, declining by about 2% per day.  That’s about 900K infections left before it is mostly over.  Perhaps another 1500 deaths.  We could cut that to 500 deaths by returning to purple for the next 4 months.  But that’s a small gain.  We could do more good by letting the economy grow and investing heavily in vaccine outreach.


Or maybe just do less PCR test.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> There's an underlying assumption that the virus behaves the same way when it is widespread vs. when it is not - as if some sort of law defines the "linearity" of the behavior. I'm not convinced the virus behavior is very well understood based on the percentage of poor predictions. There's a possibility that the behavior at relatively small numbers is different, or at the very least masked by the behavior when cases are rampant.
> 
> Also, I'd have to guess that a lot of children are passing it around quite freely now. For some reason, there are parents out there that don't believe locking their kids up for multiple years is a good idea for something that is no more risk to children than the flu. No doubt, many have mild, if any, symptoms. I'm also guessing many are questioning the value of reporting the symptoms at all. Once we get those between 12 and 16 vaccinated in decent numbers, I bet we see cases drop significantly.


I've been running the numbers for "what if they approve Pfizer for 12".  It does not shift things all that much.  Wish it did.

When they open it up to 12-15, you add about 3/4 of the 12-15 year olds.  Reduces the unvaccinated population by about 8%.  Which drops R by about 8%.

Which will increase the rate of decline enough to compensate for all of us getting 8% more social.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I've been running the numbers for "what if they approve Pfizer for 12".  It does not shift things all that much.  Wish it did.
> 
> When they open it up to 12-15, you add about 3/4 of the 12-15 year olds.  Reduces the unvaccinated population by about 8%.  Which drops R by about 8%.
> 
> Which will increase the rate of decline enough to compensate for all of us getting 8% more social.


75%?  We don't have 75% of adults yet and people will be more hesistant to get it for their kids at first.  Maybe fall if schools force the issue


----------



## Desert Hound (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 75%?  We don't have 75% of adults yet and people will be more hesistant to get it for their kids at first.  Maybe fall if schools force the issue


Has he run any models showing how far off his models are from real world data?


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> I don't think anyone from "Team Virus" would disagree with this.  You can only mitigate, not block the virus.  I still think we could have mitigated the impact to the vulnerable with a targeted approach without putting a grossly unnecessary burden on the rest of the population, particularly our children.


Team virus only says "protect the elderly" when they want an excuse for letting cases (and deaths) go up.  It lets them support an increase in deaths without actually looking at the cost in their cost/benefit analysis.

At least when I support a policy that means 1000 additional people will die, I have the spine to admit it.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

Fascinating....concludes much of the resistance to public health measures by vocal opponents is due to the experts pushing certainty when uncertainty exists.  Sound like any two people we know????



			https://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.07993.pdf


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Has he run any models showing how far off his models are from real world data?


Yeah case in point I did the vaccine particularly after showing prior infection was shown to be equivalent to 1 dose of the vaccine (mostly for my parent's sake but also don't want to in some fluke taking an unnecessary risk to make the kids orphans).  I wouldn't give it to the kids right away....maybe August depending how hard things are pushed.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 75%?  We don't have 75% of adults yet and people will be more hesistant to get it for their kids at first.  Maybe fall if schools force the issue


SCC is at 73.3%.  I think we will hit 75.  Might be less for you.

Maybe you're right.  Maybe we only get a 7% boost instead of 8%.  Still a small benefit.


----------



## watfly (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Team virus only says "protect the elderly" when they want an excuse for letting cases (and deaths) go up.  It lets them support an increase in deaths without actually looking at the cost in their cost/benefit analysis.
> 
> At least when I support a policy that means 1000 additional people will die, I have the spine to admit it.


Team Virus doesn't say just protect the elderly, but regardless, our approach conceivably could result in more Covid deaths...none of us can say either way with any degree of certainty.   I have the spine to say a targeted approach could possibly lead to more Covid deaths, but I'm not willing to concede it will because a mandated blanket approach and quarantining the healthy is not credible and is taken less seriously by the general public (particularly when you consider the arbitrary nature of many restrictions).   I support a targeted approach because I believe when you factor in health issues both physical and mental caused by overly broad lockdown restrictions that a targeted approach will result in better overall health picture than a blanket approach (even without considering economic factors).  The cost in my cost/benefit analysis is not just economic, its other health issues and long term education and social issues...to name a few.

Do you have the spine to admit that the lockdown restrictions you propose would result in significantly higher mental health issues and possibly more deaths as a result of delays in care, etc?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I've been running the numbers for "what if they approve Pfizer for 12".  It does not shift things all that much.  Wish it did.
> 
> When they open it up to 12-15, you add about 3/4 of the 12-15 year olds.  Reduces the unvaccinated population by about 8%.  Which drops R by about 8%.
> 
> Which will increase the rate of decline enough to compensate for all of us getting 8% more social.


Does that assume all people are equally likely to get and spread the virus?


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Do you have the spine to admit that the lockdown restrictions you propose would result in significantly higher mental health issues and possibly more deaths as a result of delays in care, etc?


The mental health cost is real.  We could have done more to mitigate it by encouraging outdoor gathering, but that would not have meant zero additional problems.

You have the sign wrong on the delays in care argument.  Actually getting R below 1 would have meant fewer resource constraints, not fewer.  You also have fewer reasons to avoid care if the hospitals have fewer covid patients.

The other big cost is economic, but that one cuts both ways.  Closing indoor spreader sites causes unemployment, which is bad.   But high levels of hospitalization are also bad.  Those 2 week stays aren't cheap, and most essential workers will have trouble paying them off.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Does that assume all people are equally likely to get and spread the virus?


No.  But it does assume that the population mixes well.  

In reality, we are poorly mixed.  We clump.  This means the model breaks down for very low case counts.  

I have not given a lot of thought to what happens when the virus is forced to retreat into the anti-vax community.  It changes, but I don't know how.


----------



## watfly (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You have the sign wrong on the delays in care argument.  Actually getting R below 1 would have meant fewer resource constraints, not fewer.  You also have fewer reasons to avoid care if the hospitals have fewer covid patients.


Not according to my buddy who is Chief of Staff for a major regional healthcare organization.  No offense but I will take his opinion over yours.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Team virus only says "protect the elderly" when they want an excuse for letting cases (and deaths) go up.  It lets them support an increase in deaths without actually looking at the cost in their cost/benefit analysis.


 Wait…so protecting the elderly and opening up meant more deaths, but the second we protected…errr…vaccinated the elderly, deaths PLUMMETED even as some states abandoned the mask and distancing policies and opened up.

That’s a head scratcher…..


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Wait…so protecting the elderly and opening up meant more deaths, but the second we protected…errr…vaccinated the elderly, deaths PLUMMETED even as some states abandoned the mask and distancing policies and opened up.
> 
> That’s a head scratcher…..


Not a head scratcher at all.  The vaccine works.  An 80% vax rate among elderly is a larger change than the case bump caused by dropping mask requirements.   We agree that sufficient vaccination makes restrictions unnecessary.  We just disagree about where to draw the line.  

But Team Virus did not wait for the vaccine before advocating a grand reopening.    From May 2020 to Jan 2021, Team Virus was advocating for high case rates with nothing more than isolation to protect the elderly.  That was utter nonsense, and it failed everywhere it was tried.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not a head scratcher at all.  The vaccine works.  An 80% vax rate among elderly is a larger change than the case bump caused by dropping mask requirements.   We agree that sufficient vaccination makes restrictions unnecessary.  We just disagree about where to draw the line.
> 
> But Team Virus did not wait for the vaccine before advocating a grand reopening.    From May 2020 to Jan 2021, Team Virus was advocating for high case rates with nothing more than isolation to protect the elderly.  That was utter nonsense, and it failed everywhere it was tried.


 Wrong Again Dad4.

Meanwhile, it's as if our alleged public-health experts haven't been observing any of this at all. Megan Ranney, a hysteric, issued this warning on April 14:



By now I'm sure you don't even need me to give you the answer. First it was the college football national championship, then the Super Bowl, and then that Texas Rangers game. The numbers fell after every single one of those.

Did that make them stop and think? Don't make me laugh.

Now back to Megan Ranney and her prediction of doom from nearly a month ago.

You'll never guess. The opposite happened, and in fact cases are down about 43 percent since:


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Team virus only says "protect the elderly" when they want an excuse for letting cases (and deaths) go up.  It lets them support an increase in deaths without actually looking at the cost in their cost/benefit analysis.
> 
> At least when I support a policy that means 1000 additional people will die, I have the spine to admit it.


Anything but a spine.  If you had a spine you would admit that SAR's-1 burned itself out as all respiratory virus's have in the past without you supporting tyrannical policies.  Please quit advocating for the elderly.  They are lot tougher than you and don't need you to advocate for them visiting family members from a 3rd floor window before they die.  You're a coward like Fauci.


----------



## Grace T. (May 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Not according to my buddy who is Chief of Staff for a major regional healthcare organization.  No offense but I will take his opinion over yours.


I gotta echo this with my own experience with my bacterial secondary infection last year. Ordinarily they would have brought me in for an ultrasound and urinalysis but because of the lockdown they just wrote rx without a culture or examining it.  Despite my pleas that i was sure it was resistant to the first round they said they couldn’t do anything due to lockdowns and I should give it more time. One night I was in agony and I insisted they switch the antibiotic. If they hadn’t that evening I would have gone into shock and maybe died the next day.  I still wasn’t better so the procedure was to do a ct scan before removing me from the antibiotics but because of the restrictions in facilties and because my case was now chronic instead of acute I couldn’t get in to do it here in California but while we were out in Utah it was a piece of cake. They figured out what was wrong with me which required coming back to California but by the end of summer in Los Angeles the medical system was running a little more smoothly. Even if I had wanted to be seen in person by my urologist I couldn’t up front because of the temp screenings. So yes lockdowns almost wound up killing me and made something which should have been resolved under normal circumstances in a month take five months of not feeling well.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not a head scratcher at all.  The vaccine works.


mRNA is not a vaccine.  It contains no Corona tissue whatsoever.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Not according to my buddy who is Chief of Staff for a major regional healthcare organization.  No offense but I will take his opinion over yours.


You're dealing with a butcher.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I gotta echo this with my own experience with my bacterial secondary infection last year. Ordinarily they would have brought me in for an ultrasound and urinalysis but because of the lockdown they just wrote rx without a culture or examining it.  Despite my pleas that i was sure it was resistant to the first round they said they couldn’t do anything due to lockdowns and I should give it more time. One night I was in agony and I insisted they switch the antibiotic. If they hadn’t that evening I would have gone into shock and maybe died the next day.  I still wasn’t better so the procedure was to do a ct scan before removing me from the antibiotics but because of the restrictions in facilties and because my case was now chronic instead of acute I couldn’t get in to do it here in California but while we were out in Utah it was a piece of cake. They figured out what was wrong with me which required coming back to California but by the end of summer in Los Angeles the medical system was running a little more smoothly. Even if I had wanted to be seen in person by my urologist I couldn’t up front because of the temp screenings. So yes lockdowns almost wound up killing me and made something which should have been resolved under normal circumstances in a month take five months of not feeling well.


Maybe that's Dad's problem.  They couldn't treat him for Hypochondria and Tunnel Vision hence the obsession with tyrannical policies at all cost.


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I gotta echo this with my own experience with my bacterial secondary infection last year. Ordinarily they would have brought me in for an ultrasound and urinalysis but because of the lockdown they just wrote rx without a culture or examining it.  Despite my pleas that i was sure it was resistant to the first round they said they couldn’t do anything due to lockdowns and I should give it more time. One night I was in agony and I insisted they switch the antibiotic. If they hadn’t that evening I would have gone into shock and maybe died the next day.  I still wasn’t better so the procedure was to do a ct scan before removing me from the antibiotics but because of the restrictions in facilties and because my case was now chronic instead of acute I couldn’t get in to do it here in California but while we were out in Utah it was a piece of cake. They figured out what was wrong with me which required coming back to California but by the end of summer in Los Angeles the medical system was running a little more smoothly. Even if I had wanted to be seen in person by my urologist I couldn’t up front because of the temp screenings. So yes lockdowns almost wound up killing me and made something which should have been resolved under normal circumstances in a month take five months of not feeling well.


What state imposed lockdown rule are you speaking of?  

It seems a bit if a stretch to say that, if only bars and restaurants had been open in CA, then hospitals would have had better urology screening standards.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What state imposed lockdown rule are you speaking of?
> 
> It seems a bit if a stretch to say that, if only bars and restaurants had been open in CA, then hospitals would have had better urology screening standards.


Which of the following tested positive for C0VlD-19 using PCR tests?



Was it…


A Goat
A Papaya
A can of Coke, or...
A quail?
 
How about ALL OF THE ABOVE?

Yep. All of them tested positive using PCR “gold standard” C0VlD tests.

Last year, Tanzanian President John Magufuli (who has a doctorate degree in chemistry) decided to determine the accuracy of the tests. He took samples from a goat, a quail, and a papaya and sent them in…

And all 3 came back positive.

Tanzania responded by kicking the WHO out of the country, and Burundi followed suit the next day.

The can of Coke was diagnosed during a session of Austrian Parlement (see the video here).

An Austrian court ruled last month that the PCR test is NOT SUITABLE for diagnosis and that there is no legal basis for lockdowns.

In other news, after a 2-week quarantine, the papaya made a full recovery and has returned to work…


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way funny how the roles have reversed. In the 60s the left was fighting the man. Today? They can't get enough of government rules, intervention, etc.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is simply the difference between feeling that power is oppressing one's group and one's group having the power to oppress. Power is a hell of a drug (said in my best Rick James voice)


----------



## dad4 (May 10, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Which of the following tested positive for C0VlD-19 using PCR tests?
> 
> View attachment 10723
> 
> ...


so, what is more likely-

1- thousands of academic researchers who use PCR never noticed the limitations.

2- some Tanzanian despot deliberately contaminated a three samples so he had an excuse to kick out WHO.  

Yes, despot.  Only one ruling party since 1962.  In case you wonder about their medical expertise, Tanzania is also the world leader in muti, the practice of hunting albino human beings for their body parts for use in medicine.

So, your source is the despot ruler of a third world country where humans are killed for use in magical potions.

Dang.  You sure can pick them.  That is a source of unparalleled credibility.


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> so, what is more likely-
> 
> 1- thousands of academic researchers who use PCR never noticed the limitations.
> 
> ...


The can of Coke is an interesting addition to the myth.  It's like the kid's (or adult's, even) party game Telephone.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> But Team Virus did not wait for the vaccine before advocating a grand reopening. From May 2020 to Jan 2021, Team Virus was advocating for high case rates with nothing more than isolation to protect the elderly. That was utter nonsense, and it failed everywhere it was tried.


You know what failed? CA. No school all year. Restaurants and bars closed through most of it. TX and FL? Open with schools, restaurants indoor open, bars indoor open, retail open.

At the end of this whole thing? Both in the same place. Team close it up failed.

The virus was/is going to spread no matter what. You and others fail to grasp that.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What state imposed lockdown rule are you speaking of?
> 
> It seems a bit if a stretch to say that, if only bars and restaurants had been open in CA, then hospitals would have had better urology screening standards.


Los Angeles.  Haven’t you had to take your kids to see a ped?  If they are running a fever you can’t get in due to the temp screening and they’ll remote only.  From March-may it was impossible to do blood work unless it was an emergency.  Same btw for mental health professionals which was a challenge with a kid that doesn’t take to them anyways much less over zoom. What are you talking about????


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Los Angeles.  Haven’t you had to take your kids to see a ped?  If they are running a fever you can’t get in due to the temp screening and they’ll remote only.  From March-may it was impossible to do blood work unless it was an emergency.  Same btw for mental health professionals which was a challenge with a kid that doesn’t take to them anyways much less over zoom. What are you talking about????


March - may here the bars and restaurants (except some for takeout) weren’t open btw not even for outdoor dining. Remember it was the blm protests that changed things since it caused everyone to claim an exception. I don’t think you remember how harsh that lockdown was...much more so than the deep purple in December.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> so, what is more likely-
> 
> 1- thousands of academic researchers who use PCR never noticed the limitations.
> 
> ...


Hanapaa!!


----------



## crush (May 11, 2021)

Dad, did you get your tag yet bro?  MOO is that this is not looking good.


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Los Angeles.  Haven’t you had to take your kids to see a ped?  If they are running a fever you can’t get in due to the temp screening and they’ll remote only.  From March-may it was impossible to do blood work unless it was an emergency.  Same btw for mental health professionals which was a challenge with a kid that doesn’t take to them anyways much less over zoom. What are you talking about????


That just shows that hospitals were different.

Do you have any evidence that it was because of lockdowns?  

It could just be that, because CA is a more litigious state, CA medical offices took more drastic measures to limit covid exposure.  Or the problem may have had more to do with general overreaction than with any state policy.

Blaming the stay at home order or color system is quite a stretch.  I always assumed they were trying to limit covid exposure because of the problems NY had with medical facilities spreading covid.  

Remember that the stay at home order was before we had good evidence on what kind of air filters do and do not help.  That was back when hospitals were counting their negative pressure rooms, counting their covid patients, and not liking the result.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> The can of Coke is an interesting addition to the myth.  It's like the kid's (or adult's, even) party game Telephone.


I saw the Donkey and thought of you two.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Remember that the stay at home order was before we had good evidence on what kind of air filters do and do not help. That was back when hospitals were counting their negative pressure rooms, counting their covid patients, and not liking the result.


So you are talking the first month or two. By late April early May of last year they knew. 

And yet we continued on doing the stuff we knew didn't make a difference.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Blaming the stay at home order or color system is quite a stretch. I always assumed they were trying to limit covid exposure because of the problems NY had with medical facilities spreading covid.


Also early on NY realized that most of the spread actually occurred in the home. Close to 70%.

At the same time they realized bars/restaurants were responsible for 1-2% of the spread. In other words not major drivers of covid.


----------



## crush (May 11, 2021)

The evidence is right in front of us all.  The virus is fear Dad4.  Fear got you and so many others good right about now and when humans get scared, they do stupid stuff because their scared.  Remember I played this clip back in March 2020?  We are now in what I call the last stage before one decides to run to the Light or stay in the darkness.  We are a no fault human race and sometimes it just comes down to a choice.  Live in fear, isolation and darkness or run to the Light.  It's a choice bro.  One must walk in the shadow of death ((hell)) in order to find the Light.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Remember that the stay at home order was before we had good evidence on what kind of air filters do and do not help.  That was back when hospitals were counting their negative pressure rooms, counting their covid patients, and not liking the result.


----------



## crush (May 11, 2021)

Well, did the Elders help?


----------



## crush (May 11, 2021)

At the end, you just might have to fight back to live.  Good luck natives.  Let's look to drive out the fear virus and look to love instead.  Perfect love drives out fear virus  The vaccine is love & light, Choose Love and you win   Simple choice yet so hard for must.  The One once said, "The love of most will grow cold."


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That just shows that hospitals were different.
> 
> Do you have any evidence that it was because of lockdowns?
> 
> ...


That’s funny...when mobility is reduced when people freak out you say it’s the lockdowns. When doctors follow public health and industry guidance you say it’s then avoiding liability and overreaction. One of your better ones.


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s funny...when mobility is reduced when people freak out you say it’s the lockdowns. When doctors follow public health and industry guidance you say it’s then avoiding liability and overreaction. One of your better ones.


And you’re the flip.  So the inconsistency is preserved.

It depends on the question you are trying to answer.  Had you asked a question about the side effects from different mobility reduction mechanisms, I would consider NPI to be quite different from freaking out.   When you ask two different questions, don’t be surprised you got two different answers.  

I assume that, since you’re changing the topic, you have no actual evidence that shelter in place rules were the cause of the health care difficulties last April.


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So you are talking the first month or two. By late April early May of last year they knew.
> 
> And yet we continued on doing the stuff we knew didn't make a difference.


Who are _*you*_ to accuse other of being slow to recognize the current research?

Ever since last spring, we have known that bars, restaurants, gyms, and stadiums spread covid.  You have spent the whole time saying they should be open.

Let me know when you finally admit that bars and restaurants spread covid.  Then we can discuss who else was slow to get up to speed on the research.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And you’re the flip.  So the inconsistency is preserved.
> 
> It depends on the question you are trying to answer.  Had you asked a question about the side effects from different mobility reduction mechanisms, I would consider NPI to be quite different from freaking out.   When you ask two different questions, don’t be surprised you got two different answers.
> 
> I assume that, since you’re changing the topic, you have no actual evidence that shelter in place rules were the cause of the health care difficulties last April.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Who are _*you*_ to accuse other of being slow to recognize the current research?
> 
> Ever since last spring, we have known that bars, restaurants, gyms, and stadiums spread covid.  You have spent the whole time saying they should be open.
> 
> Let me know when you finally admit that bars and restaurants spread covid.  Then we can discuss who else was slow to get up to speed on the research.


Back to your baseless case hysteria I see.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Who are _*you*_ to accuse other of being slow to recognize the current research?
> 
> Ever since last spring, we have known that bars, restaurants, gyms, and stadiums spread covid.  You have spent the whole time saying they should be open.
> 
> Let me know when you finally admit that bars and restaurants spread covid.  Then we can discuss who else was slow to get up to speed on the research.


You don't remember.

I have said it is economically unsustainable to kill off biz.

You cannot just wave your hand and say hey you 10s of millions of people cannot work, give up your biz, etc.

You cannot just have 10s of millions of kids not going to school.

I have been rather consistent.

You like to pretend that gov can just pick and choose and shut down for 3, 4, 5 months or longer and say screw those employees, biz owners, school kids, etc.

Further the data showed early on that the vast vast majority of the people had no risk. 

I advocated that if old people want to lock down they should. You think that is unreasonable and crazy and turn around and say the real solution is to lock everything down. Fantasy land is where you live.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You know what failed? CA. No school all year. Restaurants and bars closed through most of it. TX and FL? Open with schools, restaurants indoor open, bars indoor open, retail open.
> 
> At the end of this whole thing? Both in the same place. Team close it up failed.
> 
> The virus was/is going to spread no matter what. You and others fail to grasp that.


Had push come to shove I would have traded some small business restrictions if it meant schools were open 100% in September (with appropriate precautions).  The fact that schools weren't reopen in September was criminal and may go down in history as the worse public policy decision ever.  Of course, the major school districts and unions, which I consider to be evil, had a major hand in the closures. (I had kids in SDUSD for 9 years and  I can personally attest to the corruption and incompetence of the District.  It actually led to a situation that was ignored at our school for years that ultimately led to a federal investigation of multiple sexual abuse incidents at our school.  Of course, the superintendent, Cindy Marten, that allowed this to happen and covered it up is now in the Biden administration.)

The biggest problem with team lockdown is they don't understand, or choose to ignore, the difference between epidemiological and medical opinion and actual evidence and real world results.  The amount of scientific gaslighting that has occurred over the last year is astonishing.  Don't believe what you see happened in Texas or Florida.  Please wait for a statistician to exercise some math voodoo to tell you what really happened.  Don't trust the obvious.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And you’re the flip.  So the inconsistency is preserved.
> 
> It depends on the question you are trying to answer.  Had you asked a question about the side effects from different mobility reduction mechanisms, I would consider NPI to be quite different from freaking out.   When you ask two different questions, don’t be surprised you got two different answers.
> 
> I assume that, since you’re changing the topic, you have no actual evidence that shelter in place rules were the cause of the health care difficulties last April.


I was just adding my one anecdote to what watfly has mentioned and again I have a large medical family ranging from hospital admins to front line nurses and nurse practioners and they’d echo watflys concerns

my terms align. The public panicked before health orders went into effect. But the hospitals/doctors were following local health advice and industry advice. But it’s also very easy: in Utah I was quickly and painlessly able to schedule the tests I needed. Had I known someone to take the kids I’d have even done the procedure there. In California I had to jump through numerous hoops including a delay which almost, had I trusted the experts, would have cost me my life.  Only a medical relative that intervened and a father that was able to write rx saved me.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> so, what is more likely-
> 
> 1- thousands of academic researchers who use PCR never noticed the limitations.
> 
> ...


(Pssst Dad! The ignore feauture works great! Now only if It worked in real life...)


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> (Pssst Dad! The ignore feauture works great! Now only if It worked in real life...)


You don't have to use a "feature".   You can just choose to ignore on your own.


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I was just adding my one anecdote to what watfly has mentioned and again I have a large medical family ranging from hospital admins to front line nurses and nurse practioners and they’d echo watflys concerns
> 
> my terms align. The public panicked before health orders went into effect. But the hospitals/doctors were following local health advice and industry advice. But it’s also very easy: in Utah I was quickly and painlessly able to schedule the tests I needed. Had I known someone to take the kids I’d have even done the procedure there. In California I had to jump through numerous hoops including a delay which almost, had I trusted the experts, would have cost me my life.  Only a medical relative that intervened and a father that was able to write rx saved me.


I didn't have any trouble making appointments.  In fact, my MDs were calling me up to remind me that it was time for my next appointment.  The only "panic" I witnessed at the medical centers was a mask and fever screening at the door.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't have any trouble making appointments.  In fact, my MDs were calling me up to remind me that it was time for my next appointment.  The only "panic" I witnessed at the medical centers was a mask and fever screening at the door.


Count yourself lucky.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't have any trouble making appointments.  In fact, my MDs were calling me up to remind me that it was time for my next appointment.  The only "panic" I witnessed at the medical centers was a mask and fever screening at the door.


o.k. not to doubt your personal experience, but the window we are talking about here is March-May.  I'm frankly surprised your doctors offices were open as many of them in La Co were just plain shut until they could get telehealth up and running.  But it raises an interesting possibility: doctors for older people were more open than> other specialists for adults > pediatricians.  If true, that would be crazy ass backwards in terms of public health risk.

Still, I little hard to get through the temp screening when you are actually running a temp.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> (Pssst Dad! The ignore feauture works great! Now only if It worked in real life...)


He'd be talking to himself, espola and Husker.  Not sure even dad wants to do that.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

"MIT SCHOLARS REVIEW ANTI-MASK DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUDE: “As science and technology studies (STS) scholars have shown, data is not a neutral substrate that can be used for good or for ill [14, 46, 84]. Indeed, *anti-maskers often reveal themselves to be more sophisticated in their understanding of how scientific knowledge is socially constructed than their ideological adversaries, who espouse naive realism about the ‘objective’ truth of public health data.”*

Plus: “Most fundamentally, the groups we studied believe that science is a process, and not an institution.”

Also: “As Tufekci demonstrates (and our data corroborates), the CDC’s initial public messaging that masks were ineffective—followed by a quick public reversal— seriously hindered the organization’s ability to effectively communicate as the pandemic progressed. As we have seen, people are not simply passive consumers of media: anti-mask users in particular were predisposed to digging through the scientific literature and highlighting the *uncertainty in academic publications* that media or- ganizations elide. *When these uncertainties did not surface within public-facing versions of these studies, people began to assume that there was a broader cover-up* [99].”



			https://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.07993.pdf


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> Had push come to shove I would have traded some small business restrictions if it meant schools were open 100% in September (with appropriate precautions).  The fact that schools weren't reopen in September was criminal and may go down in history as the worse public policy decision ever.  Of course, the major school districts and unions, which I consider to be evil, had a major hand in the closures. (I had kids in SDUSD for 9 years and  I can personally attest to the corruption and incompetence of the District.  It actually led to a situation that was ignored at our school for years that ultimately led to a federal investigation of multiple sexual abuse incidents at our school.  Of course, the superintendent, Cindy Marten, that allowed this to happen and covered it up is now in the Biden administration.)
> 
> The biggest problem with team lockdown is they don't understand, or choose to ignore, the difference between epidemiological and medical opinion and actual evidence and real world results.  The amount of scientific gaslighting that has occurred over the last year is astonishing.  Don't believe what you see happened in Texas or Florida.  Please wait for a statistician to exercise some math voodoo to tell you what really happened.  Don't trust the obvious.


The pandemic proved that schools weren't doing a good job of educating the masses about how to think as opposed to the what to think curriculum that got us to the mindless compliance that we now see.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> The fact that schools weren't reopen in September was criminal and may go down in history as the worse public policy decision ever. Of course, the major school districts and unions, which I consider to be evil, had a major hand in the closures.


Absolutely. Kids got screwed.


----------



## crush (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Absolutely. Kids got screwed.


Wait until the real news comes out Hound


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "MIT SCHOLARS REVIEW ANTI-MASK DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUDE: “As science and technology studies (STS) scholars have shown, data is not a neutral substrate that can be used for good or for ill [14, 46, 84]. Indeed, *anti-maskers often reveal themselves to be more sophisticated in their understanding of how scientific knowledge is socially constructed than their ideological adversaries, who espouse naive realism about the ‘objective’ truth of public health data.”*
> 
> Plus: “Most fundamentally, the groups we studied believe that science is a process, and not an institution.”
> 
> ...


We see this dynamic here when dad4 always asks if you are in favor of an indoor mask mandate/vaccine why do you raise question re masks working/vaccines?


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> o.k. not to doubt your personal experience, but the window we are talking about here is March-May.  I'm frankly surprised your doctors offices were open as many of them in La Co were just plain shut until they could get telehealth up and running.  But it raises an interesting possibility: doctors for older people were more open than> other specialists for adults > pediatricians.  If true, that would be crazy ass backwards in terms of public health risk.
> 
> Still, I little hard to get through the temp screening when you are actually running a temp.


In the March to May time frame I had two doctor visits (GP and neurologist) and one blood drawing at the lab a week before the GP.  The first time there was a car maze in the parking lot screening arrivals to filter us to the appropriate locations; the other times just a quick health check at the door.  My wife had similar experiences at a different location of the same hospital chain.

And if we are comparing "credentials" -- within my extended family, I can count a GP, an anesthesiologist, a cancer surgeon, an optometrist, and a speech therapist.  There were others since deceased -- GPs in New Jersey and California.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We see this dynamic here when dad4 always asks if you are in favor of an indoor mask mandate/vaccine why do you raise question re masks working/vaccines?


See it all the time between he and I. 

He likes to point out the study or the CDC says wear a mask. I read the literature and see that they say they don't know if they work.


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He'd be talking to himself, espola and Husker.  Not sure even dad wants to do that.


He may be talking in my direction, but I'm not listening.  The only time I take notice is when someone else quotes him.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> You don't have to use a "feature".   You can just choose to ignore on your own.


My tackle box usually contains a lure that will hook you.


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> He may be talking in my direction, but I'm not listening.  The only time I take notice is when someone else quotes him.


After posting that, out of curiosity I did a quick review of his recent posts.  He denies that an mRNA medication can be a vaccine, he doesn't know how to spell "viruses" in spite of it being in the news every day for the last year-plus, and apparently, he is very proud of a quartet of pictures he drew up (or, more likely, copied without attribution).


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> In the March to May time frame I had two doctor visits (GP and neurologist) and one blood drawing at the lab a week before the GP.  The first time there was a car maze in the parking lot screening arrivals to filter us to the appropriate locations; the other times just a quick health check at the door.  My wife had similar experiences at a different location of the same hospital chain.
> 
> And if we are comparing "credentials" -- within my extended family, I can count a GP, an anesthesiologist, a cancer surgeon, an optometrist, and a speech therapist.  There were others since deceased -- GPs in New Jersey and California.


I forgot the nurse/phlebotomist who gave a free cholesterol check the Monday after Thanksgiving.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> In the March to May time frame I had two doctor visits (GP and neurologist) and one blood drawing at the lab a week before the GP.  The first time there was a car maze in the parking lot screening arrivals to filter us to the appropriate locations; the other times just a quick health check at the door.  My wife had similar experiences at a different location of the same hospital chain.
> 
> And if we are comparing "credentials" -- within my extended family, I can count a GP, an anesthesiologist, a cancer surgeon, an optometrist, and a speech therapist.  There were others since deceased -- GPs in New Jersey and California.


Chief of medicine for a hospital, chief medical officer for a fortune 500 company, head of radiology, a hospital admin, an insurance company exec, 2 nurse practioners, chief of cardiac surgery, private practice allergist/immunologist & a gastroenterologist, pediatrician, pediatrician's assistant, anesthesiologist, a surgical resident, some of them retired.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Chief of medicine for a hospital, chief medical officer for a fortune 500 company, head of radiology, a hospital admin, an insurance company exec, 2 nurse practioners, chief of cardiac surgery, private practice allergist/immunologist & a gastroenterologist, pediatrician, pediatrician's assistant, anesthesiologist, a surgical resident, some of them retired.


We 3 siblings are the shame of our family for being the only ones to go into law (and all having attended the same law school).  It causes no end to distress in the family that neither one of the grandkids shows an inclination for STEM, through granddad is happy at least one of them took up soccer.


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> See it all the time between he and I.
> 
> He likes to point out the study or the CDC says wear a mask. I read the literature and see that they say they don't know if they work.


That's because you ignore all the studies which disagree with you.

The MIT researchers you cite were quite clear that masks "eliminate" the respiratory cone pathway for aerosol transmission.  Their word, not mine.

But somehow you never talk about that part of their research.....


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That just shows that hospitals were different.
> 
> Do you have any evidence that it was because of lockdowns?
> 
> ...


I know its a defense mechanism for you, but please stop speculating and/or just making shit up.  This one is right up there with Utah has less Covid because they consume less alcohol.  At least, Team Virus's speculation is typically within the realm of reasonableness and usually is backed up with some evidence.

_"Delayed care has been widely reported during the COVID-19 pandemic, both for perceived serious medical issues and all types of medical care generally. Between March and August, our “Impact of Coronavirus on U.S. Households Survey” from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and National Public Radio found that 1 in 5 adults (20%) in the US reported their household members were unable to get or delayed getting medical care for serious problems. Among those reporting delayed care, more than half (57%) said they experienced negative health consequences as a result."_









						Delayed Care with Harmful Health Consequences—Reported Experiences from National Surveys During Coronavirus Disease 2019
					

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has created unprecedented challenges to providing medical care for patients with conditions other than COVID-19 in the US.1 While lack of health insurance and other cost-associated barriers have long been considered driving forces preventing...




					jamanetwork.com
				




If these findings are even remotely correct, more adults had delayed care for serious health conditions (20%) than adults that had Covid infections (10% in SD) and around the same amount had negative health consequences due to delayed care as had been infected.  Do you need any more evidence that the cure was worse than the disease?  (There's plenty of other evidence but this alone should suffice).


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> See it all the time between he and I.
> 
> He likes to point out the study or the CDC says wear a mask. I read the literature and see that they say they don't know if they work.


From the grammar police-

Between him and me. 

You were trying to sound highbrow and simply messed up the parts of speech.   

You'll sound better if you don't put on airs.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't have any trouble making appointments.  In fact, my MDs were calling me up to remind me that it was time for my next appointment.  The only "panic" I witnessed at the medical centers was a mask and fever screening at the door.


This pretty much sums up the mentality of the lock downers.  Don't worry about delayed medical care for a serious illness because you only have a 2 in 5 chance of that happening, but really worry about a Covid infection because you have a 1 in 5 chance of that happening.


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> I know its a defense mechanism for you, but please stop speculating and/or just making shit up.  This one is right up there with Utah has less Covid because they consume less alcohol.  At least, Team Virus's speculation is typically within the realm of reasonableness and usually is backed up with some evidence.
> 
> _"Delayed care has been widely reported during the COVID-19 pandemic, both for perceived serious medical issues and all types of medical care generally. Between March and August, our “Impact of Coronavirus on U.S. Households Survey” from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and National Public Radio found that 1 in 5 adults (20%) in the US reported their household members were unable to get or delayed getting medical care for serious problems. Among those reporting delayed care, more than half (57%) said they experienced negative health consequences as a result."_
> 
> ...


Where in that article does it blame lockdowns?

It doesn't.  

I'm not saying there is/was no problem with delayed care.

I am saying that delayed care has absolutely nothing to do with the lockdowns.  

Do you have any evidence at all that school/bar/restaurant/church closures were responsible for delayed care at hospitals?  

If no, then stop accusing others of "making shit up".


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Chief of medicine for a hospital, chief medical officer for a fortune 500 company, head of radiology, a hospital admin, an insurance company exec, 2 nurse practioners, chief of cardiac surgery, private practice allergist/immunologist & a gastroenterologist, pediatrician, pediatrician's assistant, anesthesiologist, a surgical resident, some of them retired.


One of my favorite stories about retired doctors is the father of a kid who played for one of the high school teams my son coached.  He was an orthopedic surgeon who developed carpal tunnel syndrome, making it difficult for him to perform his work.  He underwent orthopedic surgery himself to correct the problem, but the operation left him less capable than he was before, ending his career.  A quiet financial settlement and disability insurance payments allowed him to retire early.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Where in that article does it blame lockdowns?
> 
> It doesn't.
> 
> ...


You're classic.  You can't provide any evidence of your own, only try to poke holes in the evidence from others.

Still waiting for your evidence to support Utah's fewer Covid deaths due to lower consumption of alcohol.  If that's not the poster child for "making shit up"  I don't know what is.


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> This pretty much sums up the mentality of the lock downers.  Don't worry about delayed medical care for a serious illness because you only have a 2 in 5 chance of that happening, but really worry about a Covid infection because you have a 1 in 5 chance of that happening.


I have a serious illness (if I stop taking my twice-a-day medication I will die in a few weeks in misery) and a not-so-serious illness that just makes life more difficult.   I haven't had to forego or delay treatment for either of them.  

I have no idea where you got those numbers from.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I have a serious illness (if I stop taking my twice-a-day medication I will die in a few weeks in misery) and a not-so-serious illness that just makes life more difficult.   I haven't had to forego or delay treatment for either of them.
> 
> I have no idea where you got those numbers from.


I'm thankful that you were able to be taken care of, others weren't so fortunate.  No one should have to forego medical treatment due to restrictions in place because of a response to Covid.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> After posting that, out of curiosity I did a quick review of his recent posts.  He denies that an mRNA medication can be a vaccine


A medication you say?  Lol!  Stick to spell checking.  Ur pritty good at it.


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'm thankful that you were able to be taken care of, others weren't so fortunate.  No one should have to forego medical treatment due to restrictions in place because of a response to Covid.


I guess my family has been lucky.  None of us who are in continuing care for one issue or another have seen any real interruption, just more care taken at the medical offices to limit covid transmission.  One close relative developed a nasty infection out of the blue and his care (as described by him at a distance) seems to be first-class.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

espola said:


> After posting that, out of curiosity I did a quick review of his recent posts.  He denies that an mRNA medication can be a vaccine, he doesn't know how to spell "viruses" in spite of it being in the news every day for the last year-plus, and apparently, he is very proud of a quartet of pictures he drew up (or, more likely, copied without attribution).


Have a Coke and a smile.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If no, then stop accusing others of "making shit up".


How dare they.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

Looks like ivermectin works.   If world had prioritized repurposing of meds, they would have had enough to reduce deaths on the current wave in India.

More interesting the side effect of lockdowns and lack of border control.  India reimposed lockdowns.  Caused a lot of Nepalese workers to lose their jobs and head home.  Created an outbreak in Nepal.  Nepal's capital Kathmandu went into lockdown.  Caused wage workers to go home to their villages.  Spread the illness throughout Nepal.


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> You're classic.  You can't provide any evidence of your own, only try to poke holes in the evidence from others.
> 
> Still waiting for your evidence to support Utah's fewer Covid deaths due to lower consumption of alcohol.  If that's not the poster child for "making shit up"  I don't know what is.


What evidence?   You haven’t provided a shred of evidence linking general population lockdowns to delayed meducal care.  

I at least provided evidence that Utah has fewer bars and lower alcohol consumption.  That seems reasonable support for a claim that Utah residents spend less time in bars than residents of other states.  

You provided nothing to substantiate your claim.   You link the delayed medical care to “restrictions”, but that is nonsense.  The vast majority of restrictions have absolutely nothing to do with medical care.  

If you mean, “get rid of the medical restrictions”, then please explain how we could have done that last April without spreading covid at medical facilities and infecting our doctors and nurses.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What evidence? You haven’t provided a shred of evidence linking general population lockdowns to delayed meducal care.


Apparently you don't look up from your models too often.

There has been a ton of reporting on this issue.  A quick search pulls this up on page one of google.com 

People scared to go out because they were told not to go out (lockdowns). State govs telling hospitals not do do elective type work, and so on. 


*More Than One-Third of U.S. Adults Delayed or Skipped ...*
www.healthleadersmedia.com › nursing › more-one-thi...











						1 in 5 Adults Delayed Medical Care Due To COVID-19, Study Finds
					

A study conducted by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health examines how the pandemic has led to delayed care and associated health risks.




					www.verywellhealth.com
				






			https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/103651/delayed-and-forgone-health-care-for-nonelderly-adults-during-the-covid-19-pandemic_0.pdf
		










						Collateral damage of COVID-19 pandemic: Delayed medical care - PubMed
					

During the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency room visits have drastically decreased for non-COVID conditions such as appendicitis, heart attack, and stroke. Patients may be avoiding seeking medical attention for fear of catching the deadly condition or as an unintended consequence of stay-at-home...




					pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				












						About 1 In 5 Households In U.S. Cities Miss Needed Medical Care During Pandemic
					

Some people have skipped care because of finances or fear of the virus, doctors say. Others find medical practices closed to new patients. Many are suffering health consequences, an NPR poll finds.




					www.npr.org
				




And so on.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Apparently you don't look up from your models too often.
> 
> There has been a ton of reporting on this issue.  A quick search pulls this up on page one of google.com
> 
> ...


The argument apparently surrounds whether the delayed medical care was due to lockdowns (as watfly maintains) or due just to people freaking out and refusing to get medical care and/or doctors refusing to provide medical care and putting up a bunch of restrictions (as dad4 maintains).

As usual, the truth is somewhere in between.  I'm sure (and I know of 1 person) that delayed medical treatments, for example a heart attack, because they did not want to go to an emergency room filled with COVID.  Europe responded to this in many countries by dividing up COVID and non COVID entrances.  The US by large contrast just prioritized COVID, in part because of the situation in New York which was because of the media hysterics transplanted to a lot of other areas.  Also neglected is the role state health advice, county health advice and medical association advice played in the way doctor's altered their practices....most of the advice of which was temperature checks and restrict to remote practice where possible, which my own case illustrates how it creates an obstacle, particularly if the person seeking care has a temperature for reasons other than COVID and at the time COVID tests were not easily available.  There's also the plain fact that the lockdowns (not to mention the media panic drumbeat) fed the panic and made people judge that being exposed to COVID in the hospital was probably worse than dealing with their heartattacks.  But the simple fact remains that Utah did it very differently than California (I had no problems getting care in Utah whereas here it was a maze of restrictions so something is very different in Utah v. California), or if dad prefers, Europe did it very different.


----------



## Yours in futbol (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What evidence?   You haven’t provided a shred of evidence linking general population lockdowns to delayed meducal care.
> 
> I at least provided evidence that Utah has fewer bars and lower alcohol consumption.  That seems reasonable support for a claim that Utah residents spend less time in bars than residents of other states.
> 
> ...


At this point, the only reason why I come to this thread is to see whether you are still active and responding to these people.

There is something reassuring about you consistently maintaining composure and an even tone despite the constant trolling, personal insults, and half-baked arguments.

It's almost like, "Gee, maybe there's hope for Western Civilization after all if dad4 can keep at it in that OT snakepit."


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

Yours in futbol said:


> At this point, the only reason why I come to this thread is to see whether you are still active and responding to these people.
> 
> There is something reassuring about you consistently maintaining composure and an even tone despite the constant trolling, personal insults, and half-baked arguments.
> 
> It's almost like, "Gee, maybe there's hope for Western Civilization after all if dad4 can keep at it in that OT snakepit."


"consistently maintaining composure and even tone"....that one is funny.....tribalism is a strange thing.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What evidence?   You haven’t provided a shred of evidence linking general population lockdowns to delayed meducal care.
> 
> I at least provided evidence that Utah has fewer bars and lower alcohol consumption.  That seems reasonable support for a claim that Utah residents spend less time in bars than residents of other states.
> 
> ...


Covid didn't create the interruption to medical care.  The response to Covid, aka the restrictions, the lockdown, call it whatever you want caused the interruption which was a fear based overreaction.  Obviously, I have the benefit of hindsight to prove that point, but it was seriously questioned at the time.  (Go back and check my posts, I had a graphic that explained the potential ramifications of these restrictions which have now come true).  This is not a hard concept to understand, I don't know if you're just dense, or intentionally being dense because it doesn't fit your narrative.

The only time you could make a plausible argument that Covid caused a delay in medical care and not the restrictions themselves, would have been a couple weeks during the winter spike where some hospitals were overwhelmed.  However, I believe most of the interruptions to care took place in Spring and Summer 2020.  By Fall non-Covid medical care had opened up significantly.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Apparently you don't look up from your models too often.
> 
> There has been a ton of reporting on this issue.  A quick search pulls this up on page one of google.com
> 
> ...


I had forgotten about the prohibition on elective surgeries.  Just FYI, elective surgeries are not just facelifts and boob jobs.  Elective surgeries for the most parent are anything other than emergency surgery.  Elective surgeries includes surgeries to relieve or fix some very serious, debilitating and/or life threatening conditions.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

@Grace T. 

A follow on to a link you posted last week.









						As New Evidence Emerges For COVID "Lab-Leak" Theory, Journalists Who Screamed “Conspiracy” Humiliate Themselves
					

Over and over again early last year, as the COVID pandemic was ramping up but hadn’t yet reached the US in earnest, journalists working at prominent national publications claimed to have conclusive knowledge about the origins of the virus. It was trafficking in a “conspiracy theory” that had...




					mtracey.substack.com


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

One more reason our state is F'ed up in regards to Covid.

So my daughter, a junior, was scheduled to take the SAT in 3 weeks and has been studying diligently.  They just cancelled it today because of Covid.  So now she either has to go to Arizona to take it, or wait until August to take it, giving her only one shot at the exam and hope it isn't cancelled again.

This year's California seniors had no opportunity to take the ACT or the SAT last year.  While many schools have gone test optional or test blind for admissions that is not the case for merit money.  We know a few families that can't afford the out of state school of their choice because they didn't have test scores.  Compounding the problem is that more in-state students have then been applying to UC schools because of the pandemic, but unless you have a unique sob story, or check all of the woke identity boxes you aren't getting in.  The UC schools prefer out of state students because of the higher tuition.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

"There are now more connections emerging from the Wuhan Institute that should be explored further. These connections involve the United States government, the National Institutes of Health and Dr Anthony Fauci -- and he should have to explain them before Congress.

These questions could of course pose complications to the mainstream media storyline that Fauci is a great hero, a man lionized, even fetishized by the political left for being the antithesis to then-president Donald Trump. *If the NIH and Anthony Fauci played any role in financing or assisting the Wuhan Institute, including outsourcing the study of BSL-4 novel coronaviruses, the good doctor should have to answer for it.

To boil things down: the United States was outsourcing the study of novel coronaviruses to a group called EcoHealth Alliance, a group which according to NPR was doing the bulk of collection of coronavirus samples from bats and transferring those samples and research to the Wuhan Institute.*

The original grant money provided to EcoHealth was $3.7 million, $76,000 of which was slated for the Wuhan Institute. This funding was approved with the backing of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the agency that Anthony Fauci heads, according to Newsweek.

That contract was canceled in April 2020. Those grants were approved by the National Institute of Health. According to a blockbuster piece in New York magazine, one of the first outlets to take the lab leak hypothesis seriously, EcoHealth Alliance 'has channeled money from the National Institutes of Health to Shi Zhengli's laboratory in Wuhan, allowing the lab to carry on recombinant research into diseases of bats and humans'."









						Fauci must answer for his role in Wuhan’s COVID lab
					

If the NIH and Anthony Fauci played any role in financing or assisting the Wuhan Institute, the good doctor should have to answer for it




					spectator.us


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> One more reason our state is F'ed up in regards to Covid.
> 
> So my daughter, a junior, was scheduled to take the SAT in 3 weeks and has been studying diligently.  They just cancelled it today because of Covid.  So now she either has to go to Arizona to take it, or wait until August to take it, giving her only one shot at the exam and hope it isn't cancelled again.
> 
> This year's California seniors had no opportunity to take the ACT or the SAT last year.  While many schools have gone test optional or test blind for admissions that is not the case for merit money.  We know a few families that can't afford the out of state school of their choice because they didn't have test scores.  Compounding the problem is that more in-state students have then been applying to UC schools because of the pandemic, but unless you have a unique sob story, or check all of the woke identity boxes you aren't getting in.  The UC schools prefer out of state students because of the higher tuition.


That would make me very grumpy. You need to take her out of state to take that test in case you need another run at it OR as you state to avoid the risk of the idiots in charge cancelling the Aug test. 

Terrible.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> @Grace T.
> 
> A follow on to a link you posted last week.
> 
> ...


The real interesting thing is the funding fingers are now being pointed at fauci.  I couldn’t follow though the rand Paul exchange to it so I’m not sure what the basis of Faucis denial of it is or Paul’s evidence to support.


----------



## espola (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like ivermectin works.   If world had prioritized repurposing of meds, they would have had enough to reduce deaths on the current wave in India.
> 
> More interesting the side effect of lockdowns and lack of border control.  India reimposed lockdowns.  Caused a lot of Nepalese workers to lose their jobs and head home.  Created an outbreak in Nepal.  Nepal's capital Kathmandu went into lockdown.  Caused wage workers to go home to their villages.  Spread the illness throughout Nepal.


In the AIIMS study cited, the results looked promising -- 2% of those treated with a prophylactic dose were later confirmed to be infected by PCR analysis as opposed to 11% of those untreated.  The participants were divided into 2 groups by self-selection and testing was done only on those who reported symptoms.  Not exactly a proper research project, but it suggests that there might be some value to testing it.

Things like this --









						Effect of Ivermectin on Time to Resolution of Symptoms Among Adults With Mild COVID-19
					

This randomized trial compares the effects of ivermectin vs placebo on time to symptom resolution within 21 days among patients with mild COVID-19.




					jamanetwork.com
				




Among adults with mild COVID-19, a 5-day course of ivermectin, compared with placebo, did not significantly improve the time to resolution of symptoms. The findings do not support the use of ivermectin for treatment of mild COVID-19, although larger trials may be needed to understand the effects of ivermectin on other clinically relevant outcomes.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> I had forgotten about the prohibition on elective surgeries.  Just FYI, elective surgeries are not just facelifts and boob jobs.  Elective surgeries for the most parent are anything other than emergency surgery.  Elective surgeries includes surgeries to relieve or fix some very serious, debilitating and/or life threatening conditions.


My ct scan and procedure were both rules elective since the condition was no longer life threatening but chronic. No such problem in Utah.


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The real interesting thing is the funding fingers are now being pointed at fauci.  I couldn’t follow though the rand Paul exchange to it so I’m not sure what the basis of Faucis denial of it is or Paul’s evidence to support.


Why interesting?  I've been expecting them to go after CDC and NIH funding ever since Trump started listening to Atlas and sidelining his civil servants.

Not the story I'd choose to push.   I think it sounds better to brag about how the good old GOP was smart enough to support these wonderful new vaccines.  Point to those long wait lists in Europe, and the walk up clinics here with no appointment necessary.  It's a persuasive story. 

But that story is only good for winning general elections.  The GOP these days is more interested in winning primaries.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Point to those long wait lists in Europe, and the walk up clinics here with no appointment necessary. It's a persuasive story.


No. What is an interesting story is if the virus was man made from China and it turned out the US was funding a portion of the research. 

That would be the story of the decade.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That would make me very grumpy. You need to take her out of state to take that test in case you need another run at it OR as you state to avoid the risk of the idiots in charge cancelling the Aug test.
> 
> Terrible.


Just found out today about the cancellation, were trying to get her signed up to take it in Prescott.   Thank god for Arizona .  Despite how I've made fun of Zonies in the past, they seem to have much more common sense than Californians.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The GOP these days is more interested in winning primaries.


Pfft, seems like they're more interested in staying on the Trump bandwagon.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

.





dad4 said:


> Why interesting?  I've been expecting them to go after CDC and NIH funding ever since Trump started listening to Atlas and sidelining his civil servants.
> 
> Not the story I'd choose to push.   I think it sounds better to brag about how the good old GOP was smart enough to support these wonderful new vaccines.  Point to those long wait lists in Europe, and the walk up clinics here with no appointment necessary.  It's a persuasive story.
> 
> But that story is only good for winning general elections.  The GOP these days is more interested in winning primaries.


This isn't about electoral advantage.  If there has been a failure of oversight by investing in doing this in a Chinese lab with improper procedures, it's about accountability and making sure it doesn't happen again.

Please it will be really interesting if the architect of the pandemic response had something to do with starting it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

Back in January, Michael Osterholm, who's been an adviser to Joe Biden on the virus, warned that the next six to fourteen weeks would be the worst of the pandemic.

We're now beyond fourteen weeks from that moment.

The case numbers are down 76 percent:










"I want to be so wrong on this one," Osterholm said. "I will publicly celebrate me being wrong if this [surge] doesn't happen, because I just wish we didn't have to go through this."

Well, I'm sure our inquisitive media will follow up with him and give him an opportunity to celebrate publicly.

They wouldn't fail to pursue a story like this just because it undermines the panickers. I mean, these are curious people, and professionals to boot!

Ahem.

This, by the way, is the same person who said on October 9 that Florida would be a "house on fire" within weeks because it wasn't listening to him. We know how that one turned out.

You'd think after a while he'd stop and wonder: "Maybe I don't fully understand this virus. Maybe I should keep the shaming and the unnecessary panic to a minimum. Because it sure seems as if the resumption of normal life doesn't affect anything."

But of course not.

I'm spending a few days in the Florida panhandle. I cannot believe how (relatively) unmasked it is here compared to central Florida, where I live. And everything is fine. No overwhelmed hospitals, nothing.

This, I am convinced, is why many of them don't want the masks coming off. Not because they fear a spike, but precisely because they fear nothing will happen. At which point the handful of remaining skeptical thinkers will wonder how they got snookered into all this in the first place.


MAYBE Dad4 is Michael Osterholm


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

(VIDEO) Exclusive Investigation: Separating rumor from fact on Covid-19’s origin | Sharyl Attkisson
					






					sharylattkisson.com
				




It is worth looking at.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> Just found out today about the cancellation, were trying to get her signed up to take it in Prescott.   Thank god for Arizona .  Despite how I've made fun of Zonies in the past, they seem to have much more common sense than Californians.


On the bright side there are a few good courses up there to play.


----------



## crush (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> No. What is an interesting story is if the virus was man made from China and it turned out the US was funding a portion of the research.
> 
> That would be the story of the decade.


I have some friends Hound over in Europe and they say people are starting to get really pissed off at us because we allowed this to happen.  If what I always knew to be true, then boy you better sit back and pray and watch the movie of a lifetime.  This is not decade story news, this is the greatest story ever told of planet earth.  I'm glad to have met you in person and I look forward to some great beers someday.  What a time to live is all I can say.  Dr F and Billy.  I hear higher ups also will be involved.  I dont know, but something smells like poo poo bro.  I'm now looking to bail out of the city life and live off the land.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> (VIDEO) Exclusive Investigation: Separating rumor from fact on Covid-19’s origin | Sharyl Attkisson
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Gain of function?  Why not?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> This pretty much sums up the mentality of the lock downers.  Don't worry about delayed medical care for a serious illness because you only have a 2 in 5 chance of that happening, but really worry about a Covid infection because you have a 1 in 5 chance of that happening.


You are reading a great deal into that post . . , almost makes it unrecognizable.


----------



## watfly (May 11, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You are reading a great deal into that post . . , almost makes it unrecognizable.


Ha ha, you're probably right.


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> .
> 
> This isn't about electoral advantage.  If there has been a failure of oversight by investing in doing this in a Chinese lab with improper procedures, it's about accountability and making sure it doesn't happen again.
> 
> Please it will be really interesting if the architect of the pandemic response had something to do with starting it.


Total dollar value was 76K.   That's less than some families spend on ECNL.

I have no doubt PRC was diverting resources to their bioweapons program.  The 76K would have been an appreciated, if small, donation towards that end.

Think about it.  If 76K were enough to make meaningful progress towards bioweapons, you'd see them all over the place.  Hamas alone would have dozens.

Much as I dislike PRC, this isn't about PRC as much as it is a distraction for domestic purposes.  This is payback for having made Trump look bad.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Total dollar value was 76K.   That's less than some families spend on ECNL.
> 
> I have no doubt PRC was diverting resources to their bioweapons program.  The 76K would have been an appreciated, if small, donation towards that end.
> 
> ...


It’s not about the total money. It’s that the public health officials in the us either were or should have been aware of the program had proper due diligence been used and that they trusted the Chinese despite their slovenly record of taking care and safety with something as potentially dangerous at this.  Whoever authorized that without looking at the controls (fauci or otherwise if it didn’t reach his level) is responsible for the deaths of millions along with the Chinese.

distraction?  There’s plenty more distractions out there that are better than thus for the rs including without limitation: the jobs reports, the gas shortages, Israel, increased crime including the recent spat of anti Asian and anti Jewish hate crimes, the border, the cdc and it’s stupid camp and school recommends, inflation. The 70s are back baby!  Who’s up for some disco?


----------



## dad4 (May 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s not about the total money. It’s that the public health officials in the us either were or should have been aware of the program had proper due diligence been used and that they trusted the Chinese despite their slovenly record of taking care and safety with something as potentially dangerous at this.  Whoever authorized that without looking at the controls (fauci or otherwise if it didn’t reach his level) is responsible for the deaths of millions along with the Chinese.
> 
> distraction?  There’s plenty more distractions out there that are better than thus for the rs including without limitation: the jobs reports, the gas shortages, Israel, increased crime including the recent spat of anti Asian and anti Jewish hate crimes, the border, the cdc and it’s stupid camp and school recommends, inflation. The 70s are back baby!  Who’s up for some disco?


How many minutes of Fauci's time do you want to spend on a 76K international subcontract over which he has no direct control?  Or do you want him to have some underling dive deep into PRC obfuscation on the contract?   That’s fine.  But it won't help any.

This has nothing to do with accountability.  For better or worse, no one expects international partnerships like this to have accountability.  You don’t even want him to try to make it accountable, because that would be a complete waste of time.  PRC does not turn over their real documents just because US bureaucrats ask nicely and talk about accountability.

If someone asks agency heads about 76K indirect subcontracts through international agencies, it isn’t because they think the US Congress can get accountability.  It means they are playing gotcha and the goal is political payback for some other offense.


----------



## Grace T. (May 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> How many minutes of Fauci's time do you want to spend on a 76K international subcontract over which he has no direct control?  Or do you want him to have some underling dive deep into PRC obfuscation on the contract?   That’s fine.  But it won't help any.
> 
> This has nothing to do with accountability.  For better or worse, no one expects international partnerships like this to have accountability.  You don’t even want him to try to make it accountable, because that would be a complete waste of time.  PRC does not turn over their real documents just because US bureaucrats ask nicely and talk about accountability.
> 
> If someone asks agency heads about 76K indirect subcontracts through international agencies, it isn’t because they think the US Congress can get accountability.  It means they are playing gotcha and the goal is political payback for some other offense.


There’s no upside to this for the rs. There’s plenty more for them to attack on. They have their own house in order problems with Cheney and trump. This isn’t even about fauci personally (though like the buck stop here attacks against trump fauci would be equally responsible). And the media will move to protect him.  It’s about the us making any investment in China at a lab with know past problems in a country that isn’t transparent and has a bad track record for accidents. It shouldn’t happen.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "There are now more connections emerging from the Wuhan Institute that should be explored further. These connections involve the United States government, the National Institutes of Health and Dr Anthony Fauci -- and he should have to explain them before Congress.
> 
> These questions could of course pose complications to the mainstream media storyline that Fauci is a great hero, a man lionized, even fetishized by the political left for being the antithesis to then-president Donald Trump. *If the NIH and Anthony Fauci played any role in financing or assisting the Wuhan Institute, including outsourcing the study of BSL-4 novel coronaviruses, the good doctor should have to answer for it.
> 
> ...


Old news spun for those desperate for validation of their paranoid hysteria, of which you are the poster child around here.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 12, 2021)

watfly said:


> Just found out today about the cancellation, were trying to get her signed up to take it in Prescott.   Thank god for Arizona .  Despite how I've made fun of Zonies in the past, they seem to have much more common sense than Californians.


When you see the guy in the truck with “flat earth.com” painted on it along with “NASA is a con” and “the moon landing was faked” you are in Prescott (pronounced press-kit so you don’t sound like an outsider, lol!). If you golf check out Stoneridge.


----------



## crush (May 12, 2021)

I've decided to post good news in the bad news section.  I'm a free man and i can do WTHIW so STFU!  Remember, my "F" = Freaking

*Orange County won’t develop digital record for showing vaccination*
As county supervisors focus their efforts on further boosting vaccination rates among residents, they made official on Tuesday *pausing *all work on developing an opt-in digital vaccine record people could show providing verification to a third party, saying the public debate had become "counterproductive" to the goal of encouraging more people to take the shot.


I would like to see the word, "ending" instead of "pausing."  However, a pause is better than moving forward with this BS.  How would some of you Vaxxers feel if you were asked at the door the following stupid question:

Door Guard ((DG)): "Sir, did you get the shot from X Y and Z?"
Potential Customer ((PC)): "Yes"
DG:  I'm sorry, you can;t come in our place because
PC:  But I got X Y and Z
DG: Oh dear, I am sorry to hear that.  Did you not hear the latest on X Y and Z?
PC:  Hear what?
DG: Oh dear, you must leave now before I call the cops!!!


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

"Even now there is *“not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table,”* Leonhardt notes, which makes the CDC’s recommendations seem ridiculous, not simply over-cautious."

--

"But the CDC’s estimate about the risk of outdoor COVID-19 transmission was exaggerated, according to a bombshell report from the _New York Times,_ which says the risk of COVID-19 transmission *is actually less than 1 percent*."

“Media organizations repeated the statistic, and it quickly became a standard description of the frequency of outdoor transmission,” noted the _New York Times_.

“It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces,” the report explains. “An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, *who picked a benchmark — 10 percent* — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it.”

"That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. *In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, *multiple epidemiologists told me. The rare outdoor transmission that has happened almost all seems to have involved crowded places or close conversation.

Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving."










						NYT Report: CDC's Outdoor COVID Risk Estimate 'Misleading,' a 'Huge Exaggeration'
					

Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines for mask-wearing, saying vaccinated individuals didn’t need to wear masks in some outdoor situations, but shoul...




					pjmedia.com


----------



## crush (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "Even now there is *“not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table,”* Leonhardt notes, which makes the CDC’s recommendations seem ridiculous, not simply over-cautious."
> 
> --
> 
> ...


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Old news spun for those desperate for validation of their paranoid hysteria, of which you are the poster child around here.


It isn't old news. Quite frankly the vast majority of news orgs are still running with the story is debunked as of early last year. 

In other words they have not changed or updated their reporting to show that there is serious doubt that the virus was naturally occurring. 

Whether or not the US funded it or not, it is a HUGE story if the virus was man made. 

Unfortunately sheep like you are not interested in the least. Zero curiosity it seems. You are stuck looking at everything through a political lens vs wondering what the actual truth is. 

If the virus is man made it neither hurts Trump, helps Trump, hurts Biden, helps Biden, etc. It isn't a R vs D thing. 

So grow up and take off your partisan lenses to everything you see or talk about. Or keep on telling us what you have been spoon fed. Your call.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "Even now there is *“not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table,”* Leonhardt notes, which makes the CDC’s recommendations seem ridiculous, not simply over-cautious."
> 
> --
> 
> ...


I knew a rightwing rag would take that report and spin it to appease the desperate for validation crew. Erring on the side of public safety isn’t all that horrible. Outside was always said to be better, outside with distance even more so. Concerts and large gatherings is what they were clumsily trying to dissuade.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I knew a rightwing rag would take that report and spin it to appease the desperate for validation crew. Erring on the side of public safety isn’t all that horrible. Outside was always said to be better, outside with distance even more so. Concerts and large gatherings is what they were clumsily trying to dissuade.


I didn't know the NY Times was a right wing rag. But I will chalk it up to your lack of reading comprehension which is on display day after day on these boards. 

""But the CDC’s estimate about the risk of outdoor COVID-19 transmission was exaggerated, according to a bombshell report from the _*New York Times,*_ which says the risk of COVID-19 transmission *is actually less than 1 percent*."


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Old news spun for those desperate for validation of their paranoid hysteria, of which you are the poster child around here.


Funny that sounds like a mission statement for CNN


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It isn't old news. Quite frankly the vast majority of news orgs are still running with the story is debunked as of early last year.
> 
> In other words they have not changed or updated their reporting to show that there is serious doubt that the virus was naturally occurring.
> 
> ...


We are fortunate if the virus truly is a gain of function virus that the ifr was only .4% and it didn’t hit the young hard.  Even with that we got the scenes in India.  If the ifr had really been 2% like we thought at the beginning, given the massive reaction in the world, we would have gotten something closer to seen in the movie Contagion. If it had been 25% like in the movie society would have just collapse....no power, no police, no internet and food only as long as the few days mres last.  And all from a self inflicted harm because proper precautions were not followed in heightened danger experiments.  If this happened, we need to know that so it doesn’t happen again. And if foreign governments are doing it, if us money is being used (and we should so we maintain leverage) proper due diligence needs to be done in the future.  Faucis argument that an intermediary and not his org did it merely means enhanced due diligence is needed when dealing with these intermediaries and these experiments.  The fact that they ordered the money stopped after the outbreak also indicates they didn’t have zero control...they just had a failing in their oversight


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Faucis argument that an intermediary and not his org did it merely means enhanced due diligence is needed when dealing with these intermediaries and these experiments. The fact that they ordered the money stopped after the outbreak also indicates they didn’t have zero control...they just had a failing in their oversight


Exactly. 

Which is why this is very worthwhile to look at.


----------



## crush (May 12, 2021)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I didn't know the NY Times was a right wing rag. But I will chalk it up to your lack of reading comprehension which is on display day after day on these boards.
> 
> ""But the CDC’s estimate about the risk of outdoor COVID-19 transmission was exaggerated, according to a bombshell report from the _*New York Times,*_ which says the risk of COVID-19 transmission *is actually less than 1 percent*."


What’s PJ Media? The NYT published the report they didn’t spin it for your desperate needs.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

To understand the masks, put one on and try to blow out a birthday candle.

That is most of what the mask does.  It keeps your breath from travelling very far as you exhale.  If you can’t blow out the candle, you can’t blow as much virus into someone else’s face.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I didn't know the NY Times was a right wing rag. But I will chalk it up to your lack of reading comprehension which is on display day after day on these boards.
> 
> ""But the CDC’s estimate about the risk of outdoor COVID-19 transmission was exaggerated, according to a bombshell report from the _*New York Times,*_ which says the risk of COVID-19 transmission *is actually less than 1 percent*."


Oh found it: 

Overall, we rate PJ Media to be Questionable based on extreme right-wing bias, promotion of propaganda and conspiracies, as well as numerous failed fact checks.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 12, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Funny that sounds like a mission statement for CNN


Truth hurts don’t it?


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> What’s PJ Media? The NYT published the report they didn’t spin it for your desperate needs.


NYT is also saying that 10% is completely misleading.  They put it closer to 0.1%.  That’s consistent with the half dozen or so research papers I’ve read that touch on it.

Right and left agree this time.  CDC should have done a better job getting the word out that outdoors is safe.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> To understand the masks, put one on and try to blow out a birthday candle.
> 
> That is most of what the mask does.  It keeps your breath from travelling very far as you exhale.  If you can’t blow out the candle, you can’t blow as much virus into someone else’s face.


Ok now stand in a field outside 18 yard from someone smoking. Can you smell it even in the open air?  If so with aerosolized particles the holes (especially on the side of the mask) aren’t doing much to keep you protected and while stopping you from directly blowing in someone’s face are still filling up a poorly circulated room with virus particles.

more interesting (kids just did this for a science experiment in middle school btw) take a cherry throat lozenge, put a mask on, stand six feet away from someone, put a mask on yourself. Can you smell it?


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> NYT is also saying that 10% is completely misleading.  They put it closer to 0.1%.  That’s consistent with the half dozen or so research papers I’ve read that touch on it.
> 
> Right and left agree this time.  CDC should have done a better job getting the word out that outdoors is safe.


There you go with absolutes. Absolutely it’s safe for casually bumping into each other.  Youth sports outside with kids moving around absolutely safe.  It’s safe if two asymptomatic people meet and chat in a park, particularly if both are wearing masks and it’s for a prolonged time. But stand next to someone showing symptoms in close conversation for a half hour and you are going to get sick  outdoors or not, cloth masks or not. 

it’s not a question of mask or no mask. It’s not a question of outdoors or indoors.  It’s not 6 ft or 3ft. It’s not as simple as your religious slogans.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ok now stand in a field outside 18 yard from someone smoking. Can you smell it even in the open air?  If so with aerosolized particles the holes (especially on the side of the mask) aren’t doing much to keep you protected and while stopping you from directly blowing in someone’s face are still filling up a poorly circulated room with virus particles.
> 
> more interesting (kids just did this for a science experiment in middle school btw) take a cherry throat lozenge, put a mask on, stand six feet away from someone, put a mask on yourself. Can you smell it?


You have a recurring misunderstanding between the size of a molecule and the size of a single virus particle.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> ​
> Back in January, Michael Osterholm, who's been an adviser to Joe Biden on the virus, warned that the next six to fourteen weeks would be the worst of the pandemic.
> 
> We're now beyond fourteen weeks from that moment.
> ...


Thanks for posting this. I posted this at the beginning - about 14-15 weeks ago when he first made his dire prediction stating would occur in "6 to 14 weeks" and have been giving semi-weekly updates. I needed to post one last. This can serve at the last one. No need to get @dad4 bent out of shape one more time . To close this I post a link that reviews some of the issues we have seen with COVID predictions.





__





						Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed
					





					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Thanks for posting this. I posted this at the beginning - about 14-15 weeks ago when he first made his dire prediction stating would occur in "6 to 14 weeks" and have been giving semi-weekly updates. I needed to post one last. This can serve at the last one. No need to get @dad4 bent out of shape one more time . To close this I post a link that reviews some of the issues we have seen with COVID predictions.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The ultimate failed epidemic prediction --


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I didn't know the NY Times was a right wing rag. But I will chalk it up to your lack of reading comprehension which is on display day after day on these boards.
> 
> ""But the CDC’s estimate about the risk of outdoor COVID-19 transmission was exaggerated, according to a bombshell report from the _*New York Times,*_ which says the risk of COVID-19 transmission *is actually less than 1 percent*."


He's not even a good troll anymore. He needs to break out another one of his aliases. This one is stale.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> NYT is also saying that 10% is completely misleading.  They put it closer to 0.1%.  That’s consistent with the half dozen or so research papers I’ve read that touch on it.
> 
> Right and left agree this time.  CDC should have done a better job getting the word out that outdoors is safe.


Oopsie! Sorry for the lost year, kids! We messed up.
- CDC


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

This goes in the bad news section for people living in these areas. That said many supported this policy and are surprised at the "unintended consequences" of their decision. 

I get a chuckle out of it.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> The ultimate failed epidemic prediction --


Always looking through a political lens.

@kickingandscreaming  was pointing out the poor records of the "experts".

You look at that and immediately go political.

Evaluating how the experts performed should not be a political exercise. And yet you and others seem not to be able to do anything without using the political angle.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This goes in the bad news section for people living in these areas. That said many supported this policy and are surprised at the "unintended consequences" of their decision.
> 
> I get a chuckle out of it.
> 
> View attachment 10734


Who knew?


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Always looking through a political lens.
> 
> @kickingandscreaming  was pointing out the poor records of the "experts".
> 
> ...


The truth hurts.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> it’s not a question of mask or no mask. It’s not a question of outdoors or indoors.  It’s not 6 ft or 3ft. It’s not as simple as your religious slogans.


DERVISHING DAD


----------



## watfly (May 12, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting, but no surprise.  Projections, forecasts and predictions are not medical science, they are simply scientific opinion and shouldn't be given any more weight than that.  I disagree with the study's assessment that _"Some (but not all) of these problems can be fixed."_  I think it would be more accurate to say _"Few, if any, of these problems can be fixed."  _The underlying problem isn't methodology, its academic arrogance.  It doesn't matter how expert you claim to be, you can't predict the future and its arrogant to think you can.  I've said this before, if you could predict the future you wouldn't be working at some University lab, you'd be on the beach of your own private island in the Caribbean sipping Mojitos.

I've posted a number of times, but as a refresher I will post it again.








						Why Experts are Almost Always Wrong
					

No one, not even the experts, really knows what's about to happen




					www.smithsonianmag.com


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> The truth hurts.


No it doesn't. 

The US is basically in exactly the same place as pretty much every other W European country. I know early on the press and the Ds were saying the Euros got it right. Looking now we are all basically at the same place. 

Kind of like CA vs TX or FL. 

The virus did what it did. 

Now back to the "experts" and their predictions which was the point of the @kickingandscreaming post.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Always looking through a political lens.
> 
> @kickingandscreaming  was pointing out the poor records of the "experts".
> 
> ...


Did you read the article beyond the headline?  In the Appendix ("...a fool's confession...), the principal author (Ionnadis) recounts his own failed prediction that the deaths due to covid in the US would be around 10,000.

Ionnadis also rushes quickly by the possibility that the extreme measures (sanitation, handwashing, mask protocols, isolation, the shutdown of non-essential activities, etc) might have contributed to the fact that the worst-case scenarios did not evolve.  

Other quotes from the article --
_
Let us be clear: even if millions of deaths did not happen this season, they may happen with the next wave, next season, or some new virus in the future. A doomsday forecast may come in handy to protect civilization when and if calamity hits.  

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, we had randomized trials showing 38% reduced odds of influenza infection with hand washing and (non-statistically significant, but possible) 47% reduced odds with proper mask wearing.

Despite lack of trials, it is sensible and minimally disruptive to avoid mass gatherings and decrease unnecessary travel.  _


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> The ultimate failed epidemic prediction --


True.  Knuckle head should have know what the makers of Lysol and Clorox wipes have known for decades.  Corona has been around forever and never warranted the tyrannical shutdowns that you and Derv are advocates for.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> You have a recurring misunderstanding between the size of a molecule and the size of a single virus particle.











						Zooming In: Visualizing the Relative Size of Particles
					

From wildfire smoke molecules to the coronavirus, this graphic compares the relative size of particles that we, for the most part, can't see.




					www.visualcapitalist.com


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ok now stand in a field outside 18 yard from someone smoking. Can you smell it even in the open air?  If so with aerosolized particles the holes (especially on the side of the mask) aren’t doing much to keep you protected and while stopping you from directly blowing in someone’s face are still filling up a poorly circulated room with virus particles.
> 
> more interesting (kids just did this for a science experiment in middle school btw) take a cherry throat lozenge, put a mask on, stand six feet away from someone, put a mask on yourself. Can you smell it?


Your smoker experiment would be a fire hazard.  You’d have to have the smoker wear the mask, with the cigarette inside the mask.  Masks are to limit the source, remember?  They work by limiting how far his breath can travel, not by filtering out the smoke.

I like the cherry lozenge experiment.  The lozenge kid should be the class clown, because you want someone who is going to talk with their mouth full.  Then try it again with different parameters.  (masked, unmasked, inside, outside.)  Ideally, each kid marks how much time it takes before they can identify today’s lozenge flavor.  Would give you a decent idea of the relative value of masks and outdoors.

For the cigarettes, we all had to run that experiment as kids.  18 yards outside was nothing.  Entering a room where several people had been smoking 20 minutes before?  That was awful.  But it tells us a lot about inside/outside and nothing about masks.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Zooming In: Visualizing the Relative Size of Particles
> 
> 
> From wildfire smoke molecules to the coronavirus, this graphic compares the relative size of particles that we, for the most part, can't see.
> ...


A valuable graphic, but it doesn't go down to the size of the molecules you can smell in tobacco smoke or cherry lozenges.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> A valuable graphic, but it doesn't go down to the size of the molecules you can smell in tobacco smoke or cherry lozenges.


Don't know for sure about the throat lozenge for sure, but the smoke is not released in single molecules.  Is the human nose even sensitive enough to smell a single molecule of tobacco smoke?  The issue also isn't just the mask material and the holes in it, but the gaps along the side of the mask.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Don't know for sure about the throat lozenge for sure, but the smoke is not released in single molecules.  Is the human nose even sensitive enough to smell a single molecule of tobacco smoke?  The issue also isn't just the mask material and the holes in it, but the gaps along the side of the mask.


You’re still trying to assess cloth as though it was a filter.

For the most part, a cloth mask is not acting as a filter.  It is acting as a baffle.  It slows your breath so it doesn’t travel as far before convection carries it up.

As long as your breath can’t go very far, it is working.  If you can blow out the candle, it isn’t working.  Your breath is going too far.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Don't know for sure about the throat lozenge for sure, but the smoke is not released in single molecules.  Is the human nose even sensitive enough to smell a single molecule of tobacco smoke?  The issue also isn't just the mask material and the holes in it, but the gaps along the side of the mask.


Tobacco smoke is not a single chemical.  Some of its components are simple (and therefore small) molecules that are readily detectable by smelling them, such as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, benzene, and the like.





__





						Tobacco smoke - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Tobacco smoke is not a single chemical.  Some of its components are simple (and therefore small) molecules that are readily detectable by smelling them, such as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, benzene, and the like.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


read your own article.  Not single molecules


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> read your own article.  Not single molecules


_However, several components of tobacco smoke (e.g., hydrogen cyanide, formaldehyde, phenanthrene, and pyrene) do not fit neatly into this rather arbitrary classification, because they are distributed among the solid, liquid and gaseous phases_

Keep digging.  This is amusing.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re still trying to assess cloth as though it was a filter.
> 
> For the most part, a cloth mask is not acting as a filter.  It is acting as a baffle.  It slows your breath so it doesn’t travel as far before convection carries it up.
> 
> As long as your breath can’t go very far, it is working.  If you can blow out the candle, it isn’t working.  Your breath is going too far.


Like this?  It still goes up which is why indoors in a poorly circulated room they aren't as good.  They basically stop you from giving as high a viral load to the person right in front of you, but not from releasing the stuff into the environment of the poorly circulated room.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Like this?  It still goes up which is why indoors in a poorly circulated room they aren't as good.  They basically stop you from giving as high a viral load to the person right in front of you, but not from releasing the stuff into the environment of the poorly circulated room.


That's why when they thought it was droplets this makes more sense, but if aerosolized, as the prior studies we've discussed, it can fill a room pretty quickly.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Like this?  It still goes up which is why indoors in a poorly circulated room they aren't as good.  They basically stop you from giving as high a viral load to the person right in front of you, but not from releasing the stuff into the environment of the poorly circulated room.


Exactly.  The mask keeps you from blowing virus directly into someone’s face as you talk to them.  That’s it.  The rest of the benefit is minor.  But we talk to each other so much that the primary effect is significant.

Imagine you are directly in front of the head in the video.  Do you want them to have a mask on?  Or do you want to be directly in the viral plume?

The mask doesn’t get any less effective when you walk indoors.  You’re just adding a risk that the mask isn’t able to help with.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Truth hurts don’t it?


Truth about what?  The CNN comment was definitely a jab at you and the Left wing propaganda machine, but I would say the same about FOX and the Right Wing propaganda machine.  

The biggest problem with America is our politicians!


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Exactly.  The mask keeps you from blowing virus directly into someone’s face as you talk to them.  That’s it.  The rest of the benefit is minor.  But we talk to each other so much that the primary effect is significant.
> 
> Imagine you are directly in front of the head in the video.  Do you want them to have a mask on?  Or do you want to be directly in the viral plume?
> 
> The mask doesn’t get any less effective when you walk indoors.  You’re just adding a risk that the mask isn’t able to help with.


o.k. fair.  If true, then the messaging should have been wear a mask when in discussions with others, whether walking outside side by side, talking to the grocery store clerk, talking with the doctor, or in the McDonalds drive thru.  Not masks are better than vaccines or if everyone wears masks COVID is controlled.  This doesn't, BTW, obliviate the need for an indoor mask mandate (since there's still some marginal benefit to reducing overall viral loads indoors and it's hard to police people for when they are talking and when they aren't to others) but my objection has always been more the messaging than the actual policy.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> o.k. fair.  If true, then the messaging should have been wear a mask when in discussions with others, whether walking outside side by side, talking to the grocery store clerk, talking with the doctor, or in the McDonalds drive thru.  Not masks are better than vaccines or if everyone wears masks COVID is controlled.  This doesn't, BTW, obliviate the need for an indoor mask mandate (since there's still some marginal benefit to reducing overall viral loads indoors and it's hard to police people for when they are talking and when they aren't to others) but my objection has always been more the messaging than the actual policy.


yes.  Now think about how often in a normal day you are face to face with someone.  And think about how long it takes people to remember minor tasks, like putting on a mask.   Mask on/mask off 50 times a day would not have been the right message, because people can’t follow that kind of message.  

This is how you get to “mask whenever indoors or in a crowded outdoor environment.”.   It covers the times you are face to face with someone.  It also gets you the 10% or so filtration effect, which is a definite nice to have.

I can’t believe you flipped it to the point where I need to argue the “people are social” and “people are fallible” angles.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> yes.  Now think about how often in a normal day you are face to face with someone.  And think about how long it takes people to remember minor tasks, like putting on a mask.   Mask on/mask off 50 times a day would not have been the right message, because people can’t follow that kind of message.
> 
> This is how you get to “mask whenever indoors or in a crowded outdoor environment.”.   It covers the times you are face to face with someone.  It also gets you the 10% or so filtration effect, which is a definite nice to have.
> 
> I can’t believe you flipped it to the point where I need to argue the “people are social” and “people are fallible” angles.


Again, you misunderstand the point.  My problem isn't the rule.  It's why I agree this doesn't undermine the argument for an indoor mask mandate.  My problem is with the oversell on masks (which was done, in the end it will be shown, to prevent the essential workers from going into a panic while you and I got to sit in front of zoom and have weekly take out).  Treat people like adults....tell em why the mask helps (particularly in direct face to face conversation)....don't tell them stuff like masks are better than vaccines, or it's o.k. to fly if masked, or masks will control the outbreak.  That way, I know I don't need to wear a mask when walking the dog or if my 5 year old is running around the park, but if I'm going to be sitting with a friend in the park less than 6 feet away even if outdoors I might want to wear one, and I'll definitely want to make sure it's on properly when talking to the grocery store clerk at checkout.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> o.k. fair.  If true, then the messaging should have been wear a mask when in discussions with others, whether walking outside side by side, talking to the grocery store clerk, talking with the doctor, or in the McDonalds drive thru.  Not masks are better than vaccines or if everyone wears masks COVID is controlled.  This doesn't, BTW, obliviate the need for an indoor mask mandate (since there's still some marginal benefit to reducing overall viral loads indoors and it's hard to police people for when they are talking and when they aren't to others) but my objection has always been more the messaging than the actual policy.


"masks are better than vaccines or if everyone wears masks COVID is controlled"  

Strawmen.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> "masks are better than vaccines or if everyone wears masks COVID is controlled"
> 
> Strawmen.


No, examples of oversell.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again, you misunderstand the point.  My problem isn't the rule.  It's why I agree this doesn't undermine the argument for an indoor mask mandate.  My problem is with the oversell on masks (which was done, in the end it will be shown, to prevent the essential workers from going into a panic while you and I got to sit in front of zoom and have weekly take out).  Treat people like adults....tell em why the mask helps (particularly in direct face to face conversation)....don't tell them stuff like masks are better than vaccines, or it's o.k. to fly if masked, or masks will control the outbreak.  That way, I know I don't need to wear a mask when walking the dog or if my 5 year old is running around the park, but if I'm going to be sitting with a friend in the park less than 6 feet away even if outdoors I might want to wear one, and I'll definitely want to make sure it's on properly when talking to the grocery store clerk at checkout.


They didn’t know _why_ the masks help.  Neither did you.  Neither did I.   None of that was widely accepted in April 2020.  People still thought it was droplets.  We thought you needed to trap them, or give them time to fall onto the floor.  

It was purely environmental correlation at the start, with a healthy dose of s.w.a.g..  It just seemed to be helping.  The elderly Chinese ladies thought the mask helped because it was a filter.  They were miles ahead of the rest of us, but even they had the link wrong.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> They didn’t know _why_ the masks help.  Neither did you.  Neither did I.   None of that was widely accepted in April 2020.  People still thought it was droplets.  We thought you needed to trap them, or give them time to fall onto the floor.
> 
> It was purely environmental correlation at the start, with a healthy dose of s.w.a.g..  It just seemed to be helping.  The elderly Chinese ladies thought the mask helped because it was a filter.  They were miles ahead of the rest of us, but even they had the link wrong.


The Spanish study on this IIRC was published in May of 2020.  It was why Spain didn't approve gaiters and bandanas.  Many of us called them out on the outdoor mandates yet they still went ahead and did that anyways.  Aerosolization began to be discussed around the same time period of early summer.  Several of us laughed at the claim that universal masking could control the thing.  They just didn't want to listen.  It undermined the narrative of keeping the essential workers safe.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No, examples of oversell.


I don’t remember the main message being “ masks alone = containment. “

It was always “ mask and distance = flatten the curve “ as far back as I can remember.  

I’m with espola on this.  “masks = containment “ is a strawman from grace.

You can blame me for thinking we can contain it with “ masks + distance + outside + close high risk areas + enforcement “.    But there is a lot more in that plan than just masks.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The Spanish study on this IIRC was published in May of 2020.  It was why Spain didn't approve gaiters and bandanas.  Many of us called them out on the outdoor mandates yet they still went ahead and did that anyways.  Aerosolization began to be discussed around the same time period of early summer.  Several of us laughed at the claim that universal masking could control the thing.  They just didn't want to listen.  It undermined the narrative of keeping the essential workers safe.


Grace, based on current understanding, you got masks totally wrong.

Based on what is known today, masks do “help much”.  They do a great job of blocking person A’s respiratory plume from reaching person B.   Your comments last May on masks were just as bad as the CDC lack of comments on being outdoors.   And the correction was just as slow, and just as half hearted.

My expectation for the CDC is higher, but don’t waste time patting yourself on the back here.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Grace, based on current understanding, you got masks totally wrong.
> 
> Based on what is known today, masks do “help much”.  They do a great job of blocking person A’s respiratory plume from reaching person B.   Your comments last May on masks were just as bad as the CDC lack of comments on being outdoors.   And the correction was just as slow, and just as half hearted.
> 
> My expectation for the CDC is higher, but don’t waste time patting yourself on the back here.


That funny. Everywhere in the world mask mandates have failed.  How’s that mask mandate going in India?  Speaking of patting on the back what happened in the czech republic?  How it work out in Los Angeles?  And Sweden without their mask mandate?  Again no where in the world, no matter how much you wish for it, does it make a substantial difference

Very easy to figure out why. On a micro level on the airplane it’s going to help prevent the person 12 rows out from catching it. That additional help though is only marginal utility because being so far away even on a 6 hour flight he’s only rolling a couple die. The person sick right next to you though is forcing you to take several rolls every hour so eventually the n95 will even fail. The end result is the mask was helpful for the people 12 rows away but the overall reduction of cases may be only a handful producing a less robust macro result

sorry dad4.  Many of said masks weren’t a panacea while you embraced praying to them


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don’t remember the main message being “ masks alone = containment. “
> 
> It was always “ mask and distance = flatten the curve “ as far back as I can remember.
> 
> ...


The actual shaping of a plan. So tell us how you would have done it


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don’t remember the main message being “ masks alone = containment. “
> 
> It was always “ mask and distance = flatten the curve “ as far back as I can remember.
> 
> ...


The argument here has been about masks and what they can do...the answer is by themselves very little. Now you are goalpost moving and saying it’s distance too. Both I and k&s have said distancing is always preferable...the problem is you can’t always have distancing because humans are social animals and essential workers must work.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

Interesting small bump in us vaccination rates that were otherwise headed to the floor?  New confidence in vaccines from approval of 12 year olds, camp vaccinations, shift to walkins v appointments in blue states?


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That funny. Everywhere in the world mask mandates have failed.  How’s that mask mandate going in India?  Speaking of patting on the back what happened in the czech republic?  How it work out in Los Angeles?  And Sweden without their mask mandate?  Again no where in the world, no matter how much you wish for it, does it make a substantial difference
> 
> Very easy to figure out why. On a micro level on the airplane it’s going to help prevent the person 12 rows out from catching it. That additional help though is only marginal utility because being so far away even on a 6 hour flight he’s only rolling a couple die. The person sick right next to you though is forcing you to take several rolls every hour so eventually the n95 will even fail. The end result is the mask was helpful for the people 12 rows away but the overall reduction of cases may be only a handful producing a less robust macro result
> 
> sorry dad4.  Many of said masks weren’t a panacea while you embraced praying to them


Back to normal, I see.  If you find out you were wrong, it must be time to go on the attack.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Back to normal, I see.  If you find out you were wrong, it must be time to go on the attack.


You always lash out when people call you out on the goalpost moving.



__ https://www.pinterest.com/pin/256001560044258171/


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

Over lunch I just found out our favorite sushi place had closed.  Ran into the manager cleaning out his stuff.  Similar story to my favorite breakfast place: low take out demand and just fell too far behind on bills.  The kicker for them, though, was the recent increases in ingredient and labor costs.  While long term inflation might have helped out with the fixed rent for a small window, the cost increases just sank them.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You always lash out when people call you out on the goalpost moving.
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.pinterest.com/pin/256001560044258171/


Btw, fine looking cookware


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You always lash out when people call you out on the goalpost moving.
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.pinterest.com/pin/256001560044258171/


The goal, as always, is sustained R<1.

Those goalposts aren't moving.  They're collecting pigeon poop while you ignore them.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The goal, as always, is sustained R<1.
> 
> Those goalposts aren't moving.  They're collecting pigeon poop while you ignore them.



Which you've have never set out the dad plan on how that's possible.  For the 12th or 14th or something like that time, you are invited to lay it all out for us, with the benefit of hindsight.  You seem to have an outline now.  Let's here how this played out in the dad4 alternate universe where everyone listened to you.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Btw, fine looking cookware


That's da kine!


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

Did COVID-19 Leak from a Wuhan Lab?
					

Circumstantial evidence that it may have is mounting.




					reason.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

Morning Consult's recent Return to Normal poll returned some interesting results: the vaccinated are considerably less likely to feel comfortable doing basic human things than the unvaccinated.

To be sure, the vaccinated are already a self-selected group of risk-averse people, but this is still a ridiculous result. Why did you get the vaccine if you didn't think it made it safe for you to go to the movies, for heaven's sake?

The results:










On a related note, Professor Don Boudreaux of George Mason University, on his Cafe Hayek blog, shares this email from a reader:

_Experience of one of my daughters with her long time friend (LTF) this weekend, which is very disturbing.

We own a second house in Aiken, South Carolina. This daughter is an equestrian. SC is now fully open and Aiken lifted all mask mandates just this past week (thank God). With college classes over, my daughter and her long time friend made a weekend trip there. Sounds like fun, right?

My daughter made dinner reservations, and another friend invited them to see live music outside. It is important to note that my daughters has one shot of the vaccine, and that her LTF not only had COVID, but is fully vaccinated, and the friend they are meeting had COVID – and they are all under 25, so already not at great risk. They are about to enter the restaurant when LTF has a panic attack, starts crying, and declares that she cannot enter the restaurant because people are dining inside. LTF then declares that she also cannot go to the music event because there will be crowds there. LTF has become so terrified of other human beings that, despite being immunized, she cannot fathom living life normally. LTF is convinced that all the non-mask wearing people are going to infect her, and despite the fact that she, her parents, and her grandparents are all vaccinated, she is going to carry the illness to them and kill them. This is mental illness. This is what we’ve done to our young people. It is heartbreaking._


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

After sharing a story of his own, Boudreaux concludes with this:

_Despite nearly four months of steadily, and often dramatically, falling case counts in Virginia – despite steadily falling hospitalization numbers for Covid – despite falling Covid death rates – despite 50 percent of Virginians now having at least one vaccine shot and 38 percent being fully vaccinated, the government of this State which was home to Patrick Henry, George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison officially advises citizens to double mask and to
worry about “new variants of Covid-19.”

This attitude is deranged._


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

Another good one.









						Origin of Covid — Following the Clues
					

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted lives the world over for more than a year. Its death toll will soon reach three million people. Yet the origin of pandemic remains uncertain: the political agendas…




					nicholaswade.medium.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The goal, as always, is sustained R<1.
> 
> Those goalposts aren't moving.  They're collecting pigeon poop while you ignore them.


PCR test.  The suckers goalpost.  Mullis is rolling over in his grave.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That funny. Everywhere in the world mask mandates have failed.  How’s that mask mandate going in India?  Speaking of patting on the back what happened in the czech republic?  How it work out in Los Angeles?  And Sweden without their mask mandate?  Again no where in the world, no matter how much you wish for it, does it make a substantial difference
> 
> Very easy to figure out why. On a micro level on the airplane it’s going to help prevent the person 12 rows out from catching it. That additional help though is only marginal utility because being so far away even on a 6 hour flight he’s only rolling a couple die. The person sick right next to you though is forcing you to take several rolls every hour so eventually the n95 will even fail. The end result is the mask was helpful for the people 12 rows away but the overall reduction of cases may be only a handful producing a less robust macro result
> 
> sorry dad4.  Many of said masks weren’t a panacea while you embraced praying to them


More straw men.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Over lunch I just found out our favorite sushi place had closed.  Ran into the manager cleaning out his stuff.  Similar story to my favorite breakfast place: low take out demand and just fell too far behind on bills.  The kicker for them, though, was the recent increases in ingredient and labor costs.  While long term inflation might have helped out with the fixed rent for a small window, the cost increases just sank them.


I used to work as a manager in F&B. Restaurants are not going to survive just on takeout. Takeout for most is just to fill in around the edges for most of these places. 

Those that are set up as takeout places have rented/purchased facilities designed to accommodate that biz model. That means the space is mainly a kitchen along with a very small area for people picking up. They do not have the majority of the space set up for dining. So unfortunately these places during covid are paying a rent/purchase structure that was predicated on having a full restaurant.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I used to work as a manager in F&B. Restaurants are not going to survive just on takeout. Takeout for most is just to fill in around the edges for most of these places.
> 
> Those that are set up as takeout places have rented/purchased facilities designed to accommodate that biz model. That means the space is mainly a kitchen along with a very small area for people picking up. They do not have the majority of the space set up for dining. So unfortunately these places during covid are paying a rent/purchase structure that was predicated on having a full restaurant.


Our friend's small restaurant survived on takeout and delivery quite nicely.  The income was down, but so were the expenses -- no wait staff, smaller kitchen staff, reduced utility costs, etc.  They also had good fortune in a way that when the roof over the dining area sprung a leak during a big storm early in the shutdown they lost no income because the room was empty anyway.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> More straw men.


She is changing the topic.  She can't find a decent argument that cloth masks fail in normal life, like when you are in line for ice cream at the beach.

Therefore, she assumed that most people are flying, and showed that cloth masks are insufficient protection on airplanes.  Which they are.

But that doesn't make her argument apply at all to normal, day to day life.  It just means don't get on an airplane without getting vaccinated.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> She is changing the topic.  She can't find a decent argument that cloth masks fail in normal life, like when you are in line for ice cream at the beach.
> 
> Therefore, she assumed that most people are flying, and showed that cloth masks are insufficient protection on airplanes.  Which they are.
> 
> But that doesn't make her argument apply at all to normal, day to day life.  It just means don't get on an airplane without getting vaccinated.


She is so close to hitting the point.  Masks work, but mask mandates don't, especially in our "Oh, yeah?  Watch this!" society.

Not really relevant, but the person who tried to talk me out of buying a 2-liter Coke a couple of weeks ago ("We're all boycotting Coke") was wearing his mask with his nose exposed.  I didn't say anything, but I reached up and got another bottle.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> She is changing the topic.  She can't find a decent argument that cloth masks fail in normal life, like when you are in line for ice cream at the beach.
> 
> Therefore, she assumed that most people are flying, and showed that cloth masks are insufficient protection on airplanes.  Which they are.
> 
> But that doesn't make her argument apply at all to normal, day to day life.  It just means don't get on an airplane without getting vaccinated.


Why do you need a cloth mask outside on the beach when the transmission outdoors is less than 1%?  Unless you are hanging out in line with a buddy that's sick and have been speaking with them for a while, there's no reason for it.  The mask does nothing in either case for reducing cases.  Same with a factory, because people after a long day are going to socialize.  Same with a meat packing plant, because they are stuck together for so long in close quarters and have to talk loudly to be heard.  Same with a fishing boat or stable where people sleep on site.  Same with residences, where the vast majority of transmissions occur.  Same with indoor dining or a movie theatre, where people are going to lower their masks to eat.

Where can they help? Short term exposures like grocery stores and doctor's waiting rooms....not exactly the essential workers they were trying to be assuring for.  Or, as you pointed out, greeting a friend quickly less than 6 feet apart or walking side by side, or at the McDonald's drive thru.  But the universe of what they can help is very limited.  Hence, my guess is that they probably contributed to maybe an overall reduction of 5-15% of cases which otherwise would have happened.  Just a guess, but I think it's a pretty good ballpark for what masks alone (not coupled with the moving goalpost of distancing) ends up.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Why do you need a cloth mask outside on the beach when the transmission outdoors is less than 1%?  Unless you are hanging out in line with a buddy that's sick and have been speaking with them for a while, there's no reason for it.  The mask does nothing in either case for reducing cases.  Same with a factory, because people after a long day are going to socialize.  Same with a meat packing plant, because they are stuck together for so long in close quarters and have to talk loudly to be heard.  Same with a fishing boat or stable where people sleep on site.  Same with residences, where the vast majority of transmissions occur.  Same with indoor dining or a movie theatre, where people are going to lower their masks to eat.
> 
> Where can they help? Short term exposures like grocery stores and doctor's waiting rooms....not exactly the essential workers they were trying to be assuring for.  Or, as you pointed out, greeting a friend quickly less than 6 feet apart or walking side by side, or at the McDonald's drive thru.  But the universe of what they can help is very limited.  Hence, my guess is that they probably contributed to maybe an overall reduction of 5-15% of cases which otherwise would have happened.  Just a guess, but I think it's a pretty good ballpark for what masks alone (not coupled with the moving goalpost of distancing) ends up.


"Just a guess" pretty well sums up your entire contribution to this thread.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Our friend's small restaurant survived on takeout and delivery quite nicely.  The income was down, but so were the expenses -- no wait staff, smaller kitchen staff, reduced utility costs, etc.  They also had good fortune in a way that when the roof over the dining area sprung a leak during a big storm early in the shutdown they lost no income because the room was empty anyway.


The problem now is they are being hit by price increases in wages and commodities but they are unable to raise prices as demand isn't fully back yet.



espola said:


> She is so close to hitting the point.  Masks work, but mask mandates don't, especially in our "Oh, yeah?  Watch this!" society.
> 
> Not really relevant, but the person who tried to talk me out of buying a 2-liter Coke a couple of weeks ago ("We're all boycotting Coke") was wearing his mask with his nose exposed.  I didn't say anything, but I reached up and got another bottle.


Oh, I didn't know every where in the world, including India, the Czech Republic, Spain, Peru, Argentina and the Phillipines were "oh yeah watch this" societies.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> "Just a guess" pretty well sums up your entire contribution to this thread.


Coming from you, that's golden.  More than we can say for you and your snark or dad4 and his preaching.  It is the internet afterall.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> More straw men.


So far only you Dad and Junior.


----------



## crush (May 12, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Oopsie! Sorry for the lost year, kids! We messed up.
> - CDC


My pal has a son playing his last year of hsb.  Sorry Charlie, only adults allowed to watch.  No students allowed.  Asshats are so whacked with their stupid rules all because they say they hate someone more than allowing freedom.  Stealing a kids one year of prime years will not go unpunished.  Just wait everyone.  Losers who mess with the kids will have swift justice.  Losers will pay back and sum.  Stealing a kids year all because of selfishness and fear of dying?


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem now is they are being hit by price increases in wages and commodities but they are unable to raise prices as demand isn't fully back yet.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh, I didn't know every where in the world, including India, the Czech Republic, Spain, Peru, Argentina and the Phillipines were "oh yeah watch this" societies.


More guesses?


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> More guesses?


As prior stated, what the manager of the sushi place told me (which is consistent with what the manager at the pub down the street is saying...also not a big take out place since not much demand for fish and chips during COVID).


----------



## crush (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As prior stated, what the manager of the sushi place told me (which is consistent with what the manager at the pub down the street is saying...also not a big take out place since not much demand for fish and chips during COVID).


Why do you engage Espola and Dad4?  You know the two are the same, as was EOTL.  Dom knows what's up.  These two are the last of the losers who are only here to sow hate and division.  Dudes don't care about any small biz, kids life or others for that matter.  Karma is coming hard for those who steal life from others.  Breathing at with machines and medication will cause some to choke in their sleep.  All their fears will come true.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> She is changing the topic.  She can't find a decent argument that cloth masks fail in normal life, like when you are in line for ice cream at the beach.
> 
> Therefore, she assumed that most people are flying, and showed that cloth masks are insufficient protection on airplanes.  Which they are.
> 
> But that doesn't make her argument apply at all to normal, day to day life.  It just means don't get on an airplane without getting vaccinated.


Mask don't work.  Says so right on the box at COSTCO.   That way all the employees know to wear them.  Plus they are cheap and made in China.  So cool. 






__





						Loading…
					





					www.amazon.com


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## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> "Just a guess" pretty well sums up your entire contribution to this thread.


Have a coke and a smile.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As prior stated, what the manager of the sushi place told me (which is consistent with what the manager at the pub down the street is saying...also not a big take out place since not much demand for fish and chips during COVID).


Your contributions to the thread were so predictable that I had you on mechanical ignore for a while, but that also blocked your contributions to other threads, such as questions on the rules and referee behavior where you actually have some relevant experience.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As prior stated, what the manager of the sushi place told me (which is consistent with what the manager at the pub down the street is saying...also not a big take out place since not much demand for fish and chips during COVID).


Maskspola is sugar rushin' off that 2nd litre of Coke.  He'll be fine.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Your contributions to the thread were so predictable that I had you on mechanical ignore for a while, but that also blocked your contributions to other threads, such as questions on the rules and referee behavior where you actually have some relevant experience.


Speaking of predictable and fragile too.  I see where Huspola gets it from now.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Your contributions to the thread were so predictable that I had you on mechanical ignore for a while, but that also blocked your contributions to other threads, such as questions on the rules and referee behavior where you actually have some relevant experience.


You are welcome to go back on ignore.  You are the only person around here more than dad4 and myself filled with a greater sense of self-importance, yet much less deservedly so based on your past contributions.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

crush said:


> Why do you engage Espola and Dad4?  You know the two are the same, as was EOTL.  Dom knows what's up.  These two are the last of the losers who are only here to sow hate and division.  Dudes don't care about any small biz, kids life or others for that matter.  Karma is coming hard for those who steal life from others.  Breathing at with machines and medication will cause some to choke in their sleep.  All their fears will come true.


I like dad4.  I had a hard time figuring him out though.  At first I thought it was risk aversion, introversion and the teaching background...maybe he was just really frightened.  Then I thought maybe he's just blue pilling.  Then that he was a true believer policy advocate.  Then a hard core liberal D (but his trans position disavowed me of that notion).  Then back to maybe he's just an ivory tower professor blue pilling it in math world.  Then the clouds burst and I got it: he's a preacher.  He doesn't really care about the policy outcome (or he'd articulate it) and he's not an advocate (because he does question his own stuff and just sticks to lose principles rather than hard core policy prescriptions)....he's a preacher and cares more about whether we behave good and morally than anything else.

As for espola, he amuses me.  EOTL (for attacking my kids) and Sheriff Joe (for racism) are the only 2 I've every blocked.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> More guesses?


You live a sheltered life. You think printing trillions doesn't do anything?

"Inflation is soaring in the United States and at a higher rate than analysts predicted. In April 2021, the consumer price index saw a 4.3 percent jump, the fastest increase since 2008"

So no... not guesses.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are welcome to go back on ignore.  You are the only person around here more than dad4 and myself filled with a greater sense of self-importance, yet much less deservedly so based on your past contributions.


I must admit that my attempts at educating you have failed.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Why do you need a cloth mask outside on the beach when the transmission outdoors is less than 1%?  Unless you are hanging out in line with a buddy that's sick and have been speaking with them for a while, there's no reason for it.  The mask does nothing in either case for reducing cases.  Same with a factory, because people after a long day are going to socialize.  Same with a meat packing plant, because they are stuck together for so long in close quarters and have to talk loudly to be heard.  Same with a fishing boat or stable where people sleep on site.  Same with residences, where the vast majority of transmissions occur.  Same with indoor dining or a movie theatre, where people are going to lower their masks to eat.
> 
> Where can they help? Short term exposures like grocery stores and doctor's waiting rooms....not exactly the essential workers they were trying to be assuring for.  Or, as you pointed out, greeting a friend quickly less than 6 feet apart or walking side by side, or at the McDonald's drive thru.  But the universe of what they can help is very limited.  Hence, my guess is that they probably contributed to maybe an overall reduction of 5-15% of cases which otherwise would have happened.  Just a guess, but I think it's a pretty good ballpark for what masks alone (not coupled with the moving goalpost of distancing) ends up.


You need the cloth mask while you are in the ice cream line, because while in line you are close to other people.  

You do not need a mask while sitting down watching the surf, because you are not near other people.

Remember the video you sent out?   With no mask, your breath goes out several feet, possibly infecting other people.  If you wear a mask, it doesn't.

You keep searching for the absolute minimum you can do.  Why not just wear the mask near other people, then watch the waves with your ice cream?  It's as though you are afraid to wear a mask 30 seconds longer than absolutely necessary.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> I must admit that my attempts at educating you have failed.


Haha....given the teachers I've had over the years, both formal and informal, your statement is probably one of the more arrogant ones I've heard in a while....as I was saying the only guy more than dad4 or I with a bigger sense of self-importance and who even has his own neighborhood, yet never less richly deserved.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You need the cloth mask while you are in the ice cream line, because while in line you are close to other people.
> 
> You do not need a mask while sitting down watching the surf, because you are not near other people.
> 
> ...


Speaking of the beach, remember these guys?


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You need the cloth mask while you are in the ice cream line, because while in line you are close to other people.
> 
> You do not need a mask while sitting down watching the surf, because you are not near other people.
> 
> ...


Because of the length of exposure is what all of 3-4 minutes?  In the ice cream line, outdoors, 6 feet marked on the pavement no thanks.  Bit of overkill.  It would also undermine the argument for outdoor dining.  Not necessary.  But maybe taking a half hour walk side by side with a buddy that's not feeling well while eating an ice cream cone that's probably not a good idea even if outdoors.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Why do you need a cloth mask outside on the beach when the transmission outdoors is less than 1%?  Unless you are hanging out in line with a buddy that's sick and have been speaking with them for a while, there's no reason for it.  The mask does nothing in either case for reducing cases.  Same with a factory, because people after a long day are going to socialize.  Same with a meat packing plant, because they are stuck together for so long in close quarters and have to talk loudly to be heard.  Same with a fishing boat or stable where people sleep on site.  Same with residences, where the vast majority of transmissions occur.  Same with indoor dining or a movie theatre, where people are going to lower their masks to eat.
> 
> Where can they help? Short term exposures like grocery stores and doctor's waiting rooms....not exactly the essential workers they were trying to be assuring for.  Or, as you pointed out, greeting a friend quickly less than 6 feet apart or walking side by side, or at the McDonald's drive thru.  But the universe of what they can help is very limited.  Hence, my guess is that they probably contributed to maybe an overall reduction of 5-15% of cases which otherwise would have happened.  Just a guess, but I think it's a pretty good ballpark for what masks alone (not coupled with the moving goalpost of distancing) ends up.


With respect to factories, you should have an N95, good ventilation, and take your beaks outside.

Half of the things you mentioned are things we should not be doing.  You get a low estimate because you assume we socialize indoors: dinner parties, movie theaters, and do on.

Assume we socialize outdoors.  It helps.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Speaking of the beach, remember these guys?


This one pretty much sums up the anti-mask theories.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> With respect to factories, you should have an N95, good ventilation, and take your beaks outside.
> 
> Half of the things you mentioned are things we should not be doing.  You get a low estimate because you assume we socialize indoors: dinner parties, movie theaters, and do on.
> 
> Assume we socialize outdoors.  It helps.


Then you have a counting problem.  It's not the masks helping then but the shutdown of that stuff.  Those don't count as masks unless you can do them with masks.  

With respect to the factories, if you make workers work, they are going to socialize.  They aren't robots.  Don't you remember Tom Cruise's rant against his crew?

But again, you don't care about the actual real world because you are just preaching.  You just want everyone to be virtuous, not who they really are (which would be policy)


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> I must admit that my attempts at educating you have failed.


Stop blaming your teachers.  They did their best I’m sure.


----------



## crush (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Haha....given the teachers I've had over the years, both formal and informal, your statement is probably one of the more arrogant ones I've heard in a while....as I was saying the only guy more than dad4 or I with a bigger sense of self-importance and who even has his own neighborhood, yet never less richly deserved.


He's so gross Grace.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ok now stand in a field outside 18 yard from someone smoking. Can you smell it even in the open air?  If so with aerosolized particles the holes (especially on the side of the mask) aren’t doing much to keep you protected and while stopping you from directly blowing in someone’s face are still filling up a poorly circulated room with virus particles.
> 
> more interesting (kids just did this for a science experiment in middle school btw) take a cherry throat lozenge, put a mask on, stand six feet away from someone, put a mask on yourself. Can you smell it?


Yeah, you just raised your hand! I thought you said you were educated or something like that?


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yeah, you just raised your hand! I thought you said you were educated or something like that?


Here's some education -- the usual components of artificial cherry flavor are also simple chemicals, each of which is much smaller than a virus particle and much, much smaller than the aerosols in exhaled breath.



			https://myfoodjobrocks.com/dark-cherry/#:~:text=There%20are%20three%20main%20compounds,it%20will%20smell%20almond%20like
		

.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Then you have a counting problem.  It's not the masks helping then but the shutdown of that stuff.  Those don't count as masks unless you can do them with masks.
> 
> With respect to the factories, if you make workers work, they are going to socialize.  They aren't robots.  Don't you remember Tom Cruise's rant against his crew?
> 
> But again, you don't care about the actual real world because you are just preaching.  You just want everyone to be virtuous, not who they really are (which would be policy)


Why do you assume socialize = indoors?

You live in socal.  You claim to have spent the last 11 months never meeting anyone indoors.  But your examples are indoors: dinner parties and movies.  

Shouldn't your socialization examples be the things you say you've been doing?  Beach, bocce, surfing, hoops, volleyball, tennis, flower gardens, and so on. All the fun things from the big room with the blue ceiling.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> This one pretty much sums up the anti-mask theories.


Hard to see who the bigger idiots are.  The theories of the antimaskers, or maybe the people insisting everyone needs to wear masks outdoors even if riding a bike alone. 


dad4 said:


> Why do you assume socialize = indoors?
> 
> You live in socal.  You claim to have spent the last 11 months never meeting anyone indoors.  But your examples are indoors: dinner parties and movies.
> 
> Shouldn't your socialization examples be the things you say you've been doing?  Beach, bocce, surfing, hoops, volleyball, tennis, flower gardens, and so on. All the fun things from the big room with the blue ceiling.


because I accept people for what they are. I know they aren’t me (that did a better job with the indoor thing than even you because I’m scary disciplined...my father would throw fits if we were 5 minutes late to any function and would leave my mother if she wasn’t ready for a function when she said she would be).  I’m not preaching to them that they should be angels.  I’m analyzing policy impact based on the fact they are humans not robots.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> With respect to factories, you should have an N95, good ventilation, and take your beaks outside


N95s are designed for short periods of time. They are not designed to be worn for hours at a time.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Hard to see who the bigger idiots are.  The theories of the antimaskers, or maybe the people insisting everyone needs to wear masks outdoors even if riding a bike alone.
> 
> because I accept people for what they are. I know they aren’t me (that did a better job with the indoor thing than even you because I’m scary disciplined...my father would throw fits if we were 5 minutes late to any function and would leave my mother if she wasn’t ready for a function when she said she would be).  I’m not preaching to them that they should be angels.  I’m analyzing policy impact based on the fact they are humans not robots.


Carbon monoxide, 5G towers, muzzle, you're going to hell, all a hoax, want a piece of me, fuck you, etc opposed to "Want a free mask?"


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> N95s are designed for short periods of time. They are not designed to be worn for hours at a time.


"A key consideration for safe extended use is that the respirator must maintain its fit and function. Workers in other industries routinely use N95 respirators for several hours uninterrupted. Experience in these settings indicates that respirators can function within their design specifications for 8 hours of continuous or intermittent use. "





__





						This Page is No Longer Available
					

This document recommends practices for extended use and limited reuse of NIOSH-certified N95 filtering facepiece respirators (commonly called “N95 respirators”).




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> N95s are designed for short periods of time. They are not designed to be worn for hours at a time.


Back when you were busy defending your right to go out for beer and pizza, medical staff in AZ were wearing them for 8 hour shifts, trying to help all the people who got infected.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Back when you were busy defending your right to go out for beer and pizza, medical staff in AZ were wearing them for 8 hour shifts, trying to help all the people who got infected.





espola said:


> "A key consideration for safe extended use is that the respirator must maintain its fit and function. Workers in other industries routinely use N95 respirators for several hours uninterrupted. Experience in these settings indicates that respirators can function within their design specifications for 8 hours of continuous or intermittent use. "
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You 2 aren’t very good at reading your own documents.  The document assumes a shortage and is debating extended use v reuse. It even talks about the risks in each case since it’s not the ideal. And while you can do it it doesn’t mean it’s comfortable doing it particularly for the lay person. Remember there was that d congressman who used one comically during the trump impeachment hearings.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You 2 aren’t very good at reading your own documents.  The document assumes a shortage and is debating extended use v reuse. It even talks about the risks in each case since it’s not the ideal. And while you can do it it doesn’t mean it’s comfortable doing it particularly for the lay person. Remember there was that d congressman who used one comically during the trump impeachment hearings.


Btw most lay workers have lunch and breaks which defies one of the assumptions in the document since even medical interns must eat


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You 2 aren’t very good at reading your own documents.  The document assumes a shortage and is debating extended use v reuse. It even talks about the risks in each case since it’s not the ideal. And while you can do it it doesn’t mean it’s comfortable doing it particularly for the lay person. Remember there was that d congressman who used one comically during the trump impeachment hearings.


The document is a direct contradiction to the previous statement.


----------



## Grace T. (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> The document is a direct contradiction to the previous statement.


Reading comprehension


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Reading comprehension


What is incorrect in the quote I  posted?


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

The CDC says the general public should not wear the N95s. This is from Jan of this yr.

"There's been a lot of back and forth throughout the pandemic with doctors recommending wearing N95 masks, but CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky is recommending the general public *not* to wear them.

"They're very hard to breathe in when you wear them properly," Walensky said. "They're very hard to tolerate when you wear them for long periods of time."

--


"Dr. Walensky, as well as Dr. Anthony Fauci, are still saying people should wear a mask, but say the general public doesn't need to wear the N95 ones because they're uncomfortable and hard to breathe in."
--
"I have spent a reasonable amount of time in an N95 mask. They're hard to tolerate all day every day,"





__





						CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky doesn't recommend general public wear N95 masks | 6abc.com
					






					6abc-com.cdn.ampproject.org


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> "A key consideration for safe extended use is that the respirator must maintain its fit and function. Workers in other industries routinely use N95 respirators for several hours uninterrupted. Experience in these settings indicates that respirators can function within their design specifications for 8 hours of continuous or intermittent use. "
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What you miss is this.

They are not designed for long term use.

The CDC said you can wear them for up to 8 hours during the time period when there was a mask shortage.

So hey these aren't designed for that long...the CDC knowing MEDICAL staff had a shortage said go ahead.

Recently the head of the CDC said the public should not wear them for long periods of time. See above.

Grow up espola. Try to have an independent thought occasionally.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> What is incorrect in the quote I  posted?


You read and posted a recommendation during the fear portion of the pandemic for starters...and you fail to realize what they said was because there was a severe shortage of masks. So at that point and time said wear them all day (medical personnel).

So as usual you missed the forest for the trees


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You read and posted a recommendation during the fear portion of the pandemic for starters...and you fail to realize what they said was because there was a severe shortage of masks. So at that point and time said wear them all day (medical personnel).
> 
> So as usual you missed the forest for the trees


You didn't show anything incorrect in the statement.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 12, 2021)

espola said:


> You didn't show anything incorrect in the statement.


Other than the head of the CDC and Fauci saying the public should not be wearing them you are 100% correct.

So yeah I guess you got me.

I know you can type. Can you read and understand what you are reading?

Trick question.


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The CDC says the general public should not wear the N95s. This is from Jan of this yr.
> 
> "There's been a lot of back and forth throughout the pandemic with doctors recommending wearing N95 masks, but CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky is recommending the general public *not* to wear them.
> 
> ...


You left out this --
"And in fact, when you really think about how well people will wear them, I worry that if, if we suggest or require that people wear an N95, they won't wear them all the time."

Were you being clever there, or just clumsy?


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Other than the head of the CDC and Fauci saying the public should not be wearing them you are 100% correct.
> 
> So yeah I guess you got me.
> 
> ...


That's not exactly what they said (unless you depend only on your edited version of what they said).


----------



## espola (May 12, 2021)

A mask anecdote that actually happened to me -- I spent a night in the hospital in March 2019 because I was having trouble breathing and my measured lung capacity and blood O2 were low.  They ran a few tests I expected - blood and urine - and also a cotton swab up the nose until I could see it as a disturbance on the back of my eyeball - like they do now for the covid tests.  About noon a doctor came into my room in a surgical gown and mask and put on a fresh set of gloves.  She looked over my chart and test results and then took the mask off to tell me I had COPD and nothing infectious such as influenza or pneumonia.  Since I wasn't exhaling anything infectious, she didn't need the mask anymore.


----------



## dad4 (May 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You read and posted a recommendation during the fear portion of the pandemic for starters...and you fail to realize what they said was because there was a severe shortage of masks. So at that point and time said wear them all day (medical personnel).
> 
> So as usual you missed the forest for the trees


So, you knew there was a severe shortage of PPE, and you still thought your right to beer and pizza was the more important consideration.

That kind of says it all.


----------



## crush (May 12, 2021)

Hey dad, my pal lives in Columbus and just told me he got his shot and now has a shot at winning $1,000,000.  He told me that opportunity to win a million bucks got him to get his shots.  Whatever it takes I guess.  

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has come up with an unorthodox incentive for Ohioans to get vaccinated. 

*Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announces $1M lottery for vaccinated citizens*

Starting next Wednesday, adults who have received at least one dose of the vaccine, and are at least 18 years old, may enter a lottery that will provide a $1 million prize each Wednesday for five weeks.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 12, 2021)

crush said:


> Hey dad, my pal lives in Columbus and just told me he got his shot and now has a shot at winning $1,000,000.  He told me that opportunity to win a million bucks got him to get his shots.  Whatever it takes I guess.


Whatever it takes, cause I love the vaccine in my veins? Imagine Dragons, right?


----------



## crush (May 12, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Whatever it takes, cause I love the vaccine in my veins? Imagine Dragons, right?


You are one smart dad bro.  Plus, looks like that race horse owner gave his horsey some extra something something so his horse wins.  Offering a $1,000,000 prize so you can take shots is whacko all the way from what I see today.  
"whip whip, run me like a race horse.  
Whatever it takes cause I love the vaccine in my veins"


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, you knew there was a severe shortage of PPE, and you still thought your right to beer and pizza was the more important consideration.
> 
> That kind of says it all.


That is the new age trump Republican in a nutshell. The Reagan era “ME” generation on steroids. It went from the now quaint, “ME first! Outta the way!” to the full throttle, “FUCK YOU! ME FIRST I DON’T CARE IF YOU DIE! I’LL RUN YOUR ASS OVER TO GET WHAT WANT! ME! ME! ME!”


----------



## Desert Hound (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, you knew there was a severe shortage of PPE, and you still thought your right to beer and pizza was the more important consideration.
> 
> That kind of says it all.


Actually as usual you have it all wrong. In other words you have no idea what you are talking about.

Let me recap for you...AGAIN.

In March and April of last year I didn't go out except for necessary items. My kids didn't go anywhere.

By May it was apparent who was at risk. AZ started opening up a bit. There were no mask requirements. So I didn't wear any.

In June they decided to institute safety theater and require masks. So in the grocery stores, etc I wore them. For bars and restaurants the rule was to walk in wearing one and then you could take it off for the rest of the time. I followed that rule as well.

My kids wore a mask in school when mandated.

We finally ditched the mask requirements. So I don't wear them except for the few remaining places that want to virtue signal.

So that is what happened big guy. Per usual you got it wrong in terms of what I did.

You keep living in fantasy land that people were going to hide out for months on end not working, or letting their biz die, or not socializing, etc. If you had an ounce of insight you would have known that was never going to happen. People could do 15 days to "flatten the curve". The vast majority of people would not and could not do that for months on end and that was and is your fantasy land scenario.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> That is the new age trump Republican in a nutshell. The Reagan era “ME” generation on steroids. It went from the now quaint, “ME first! Outta the way!” to the full throttle, “FUCK YOU! ME FIRST I DON’T CARE IF YOU DIE! I’LL RUN YOUR ASS OVER TO GET WHAT WANT! ME! ME! ME!”


You forgot to take your meds. 

It is guys like you that keep this country so divided. You are all about coloring inside the lines and following the rules your tribe describes. And everyone who doesn't think like you, you think is the enemy. 

You are the perfect example of why there is so much disfunction in this country.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Carbon monoxide, 5G towers, muzzle, you're going to hell, all a hoax, want a piece of me, fuck you, etc opposed to "Want a free mask?"


EOTL is back.  How are you doing?  Scared?  Fear got you bad.  I can help you.  PM me dude and I will help you.  Fear is real and you have it all over you face.  Perfect love drives out fear


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You forgot to take your meds.
> 
> It is guys like you that keep this country so divided. You are all about coloring inside the lines and following the rules your tribe describes. And everyone who doesn't think like you, you think is the enemy.
> 
> You are the perfect example of why there is so much disfunction in this country.


Freedom for ALL, not just for you or for me, period. That’s why people like you are the problem, you don’t believe in true freedom. You scream about it in here. When someone constantly tells me who they are I believe them.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

No more Mask June 15th in California.  Oh yippy hooray!!!  So I guess the virus is packing up and going over to Florida and Texas June 15th?  Can we also tell the folks to stop yelling at us if we dont have a mask on today?  What, the virus is here today and gone tomorrow? June 15th?   

*California governor says mask mandate to end after June 15*

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday the nation's most populous state would stop requiring people to wear masks in almost all circumstances on June 15, describing a world he said will look “a lot like the world we entered into before the pandemic.”


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> EOTL is back.  How are you doing?  Scared?  Fear got you bad.  I can help you.  PM me dude and I will help you.  Fear is real and you have it all over you face.  Perfect love drives out fear


Sorry, but you ooze your insecurities in here for all to see then try to claim you have the answers? Lol! Get professional help please.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Sorry, but you ooze your insecurities in here for all to see then try to claim you have the answers? Lol! *Get professional help please.*


You are full of fear, it's in your blood Husker.  Big scared cheaters.  Husker, your team cheated so bad that your face is red with guilt.  Sad and sick.  Karma is coming!!!  Husker, when you tell the guy in the debate they need professional help, it only means you lost the debate.  I do have the answers and it's not division and cheating and killing innocent babies before their born.  Plus, raping and torture kids and then killing them for religious purposes.  You on the side of human trafficking.  That is not good.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> No more Mask June 15th in California.  Oh yippy hooray!!!  So I guess the virus is packing up and going over to Florida and Texas June 15th?  Can we also tell the folks to stop yelling at us if we dont have a mask on today?  What, the virus is here today and gone tomorrow? June 15th?
> 
> *California governor says mask mandate to end after June 15*
> 
> California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday the nation's most populous state would stop requiring people to wear masks in almost all circumstances on June 15, describing a world he said will look “a lot like the world we entered into before the pandemic.”


Welcome back to freedom. Or in the case of CA...partial freedom . It is a step in the right direction.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Open your eyes Husker!!!

Hey Husker and Espola and Dad4, this is what it's always been about.  The kids who need our help.  I had a pal send this to me and it made me cry.  I was adopted and brought to this planet to help people like you WTFU!!!  I will encourage you to look above the White House at the 2:45-2:50 mark. Do you have any idea what DC was built on?  Do you know who was living under ground?  Pure evil dude.  Plus, Mr. T was picked for this job from the Military.*  Listen carefully to t's words when he shared his #1 goal:  To END human trafficking.*  No contain or make better, no, it's called ending evil and the crap that was going on will make you puke, if you have any heart.  No heart, then you will continue to mock me fellas.  Soccer will be used to heal the world, just like I said it would.  









						Open your eyes - 6m film - please watch and share to loved ones
					

I cried..... Did you?  https://t.me/disclosurehub/157




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Hold the line everyone.  









						HOLD THE LINE - PREPARE FOR THE STORM MAGA - WHERE WE GO ONE WE GO ALL
					

Boggles the mind how many Earthlings remain blissfully unaware that this war has been raging behind the veil since 2016 and already won. Everything we are watching on MSM is intended to show you how bad it would have gotten if the patriots hadn't s…




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## Desert Hound (May 13, 2021)

Ah the union in SF looking out for best interests of the kids. Good stuff. Or not.

The union doesn't care about kids or education.

"In what some are calling a blatant money grab, the deal between the district and teachers union will bring seniors back “for at least one day before the end of the school year,” so the city’s public schools could qualify for $12 million in state reopening funds."

This part probably warms @dad4 s heart.

"The teachers union, which acknowledged the academic and emotional harm to many students from remote learning, argued it wasn’t safe to return until educators were vaccinated *and even then resisted a fuller reopening*."

This part is rich. Bring them to school for a day or two. But no need to be with a teacher or actually take a class.

"While the teachers union announced Sunday that it had reached an agreement with the district to allow seniors to return to schools, it didn’t release specifics. The Chronicle obtained a copy of the deal Monday.

Each cohort of students would have two* teachers or staff* supervising them on campus. *Activities might include “end of high school conversations,” or “college and career exploration,*” said district officials, who were still working out the cohort size."










						S.F. wanted to bring seniors back to get $12 million in state funding. But the plan might fall short
					

In what some are calling a blatant money grab, the deal between the district and teachers...




					www.sfchronicle.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You 2 aren’t very good at reading your own documents.


Classic Espola.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> This one pretty much sums up the anti-mask theories.





espola said:


> I must admit that my attempts at educating you have failed.


I get it.  Your COPD makes you vulnerable.  Stay inside and double masked for as long as you need to.  The bus driver will just have to do without you.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition and strong regimentation of society and of the economy which came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe. 

How is this possible?


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

*Jennifer is telling everyone the best way to solve the gas issue is to buy a new electric car and stop using gas altogether.  More control? *



*But Jen, I like to drive my 1966 Ford Mustang and I dont like these fake cars that can be controlled from anywhere.  Imagine your enemy can take control of the car your driving from a computer.  "Sorry Charlie, no brakes for you today."  These people are control freaks and will not be able to walk down the street.  You all better get on the side of the kids or you will be getting a custom millstone engraved with your name on it and wrapped around your neck. No one will be able to ignore the truth about all the kids.  No one!!!*

*My 1966 baby!!*


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> *Jennifer is telling everyone the best way to solve the gas issue is to buy a new electric car and stop using gas altogether.  More control? *
> 
> View attachment 10744
> 
> ...


Take your 66 to a smog check place and find out what the kids have to breathe when you drive that beautiful machine.

I know you believe it is perfectly tuned.  It probably runs as clean as can be hoped for. 

But find out what you’re making the kids breathe.  You’ll be surprised.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> Jennifer is telling everyone the best way to solve the gas issue is to buy a new electric car and stop using gas altogether. More control?


The funny thing..and most people don't realize this is:

Most of our power plants in the US use fossil fuels. So when you think you are zero emissions what you really have is a long tailpipe. Your vehicle might not be emitting, but the power plant that generates the electricity certainly does.

And when people advocate restricting drilling/mining they dont realize that right now there are not many other options out there for our power grid.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition and strong regimentation of society and of the economy which came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.
> 
> How is this possible?


How is it possible?  You just need a charismatic populist and a mob of idiots willing to storm the Reichstag.  It helps if your charismatic populist is willing to stir up racial divisions.

Sound familiar?  Listen to Liz Cheney.  She’s busy trying to spell it out for you.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> How is it possible?  You just need a charismatic populist and a mob of idiots willing to storm the Reichstag.  It helps if your charismatic populist is willing to stir up racial divisions.
> 
> Sound familiar? * Listen to Liz Cheney*.  She’s busy trying to spell it out for you.


Dude, your side is all twisted.  If you dont get honest, you will be a lost cause.  Listen to Liz dad says....lol!  How is Dick her dad doing?  You sound like the devil now bro, just to be honest.  He likes to twist things and cause confusion and you are whacked.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

*Biden to reporters: ‘I’m not supposed to be answering all these questions. I’m supposed to leave’*

This is getting gnarly.  The movie already started and it's going to get real soon for everyone. Open your eyes and your heart to the truth about the kids.  The full force and weight is on these asshats and nowhere for them to run.  They have a train to nowhere with no gasoline.  No place to run or hide.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)




----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Take your 66 to a smog check place and find out what the kids have to breathe when you drive that beautiful machine.
> 
> I know you believe it is perfectly tuned.  It probably runs as clean as can be hoped for.
> 
> But find out what you’re making the kids breathe.  You’ll be surprised.


Not this year in CA. They were all inside getting an early start on developing their parents' neuroses.


----------



## watfly (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> *Jennifer is telling everyone the best way to solve the gas issue is to buy a new electric car and stop using gas altogether.  More control? *
> 
> View attachment 10744
> 
> ...


I have no problem with electric cars, and while I don't own one, I think the technology is amazing and addresses a few issues with combustion engines.  Going 0-60 in 3 seconds is pretty cool.  There is a company in Carlsbad that converted an old VW Transporter to electric, I would die kill for that car.

However, having our government telling everyone to go out and buy one is another example of the left's out of touch arrogance and elitism (like, "just go get a job building solar panels").  What percentage of our population can afford an electric car?  Furthermore, these vehicles are meant to be charged overnight at home.  If you own a home that's fine, but if your renting, how are you charging that car?  Are we going to require landlords to install chargers for every tenant?

It's one thing to go to the gas station and fill up your car in a few minutes.  It's another thing to go to a charging location and wait 1/2 an hour to recharge your car.

Electric will evolve and at some point we will have more electric than gas, but the technology just isn't there yet.  Fossil fuels are going to have a place for at least decades to come, they're an amazing source of stored energy.  Keep in mind that renewable energy requires fossil fuels.  Wind energy in particular requires a lot of fossil fuels.

I believe our future is battery technology, but I question how we are going to produce significant energy to run all the electric cars without nuclear energy?  I just don't think solar is going to do it.  It requires a significant amount of land and is generally unsightly.

If we were truly serious about reducing our carbon footprint, or any footprint for that matter, we wouldn't worry about Crush's 66 Mustang, we'd be putting restrictions on how many children we have.  I'm not recommending that, but that's the honest reality.  Dad4 your kids have a much bigger impact on the environment than Crush's car.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The funny thing..and most people don't realize this is:
> 
> Most of our power plants in the US use fossil fuels. So when you think you are zero emissions what you really have is a long tailpipe. Your vehicle might not be emitting, but the power plant that generates the electricity certainly does.
> 
> And when people advocate restricting drilling/mining they dont realize that right now there are not many other options out there for our power grid.


You can measure that long tailpipe.

Include the energy used to make the battery.   Mining and smelting aren’t clean, so also include the emissions.

You still end up with a vehicle that is more efficient and pollutes less than a comparable gasoline vehicle.  

There is also an advantage to ending your tailpipe at the power plant.   The power plant has a multi million dollar emission control system with continuous monitoring by a team of engineers.  Your car does not.  The power plant creates a lot less pollution per Joule than your car.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

watfly said:


> I have no problem with electric cars, and while I don't own one, I think the technology is amazing and addresses a few issues with combustion engines.  Going 0-60 in 3 seconds is pretty cool.  There is a company in Carlsbad that converted an old VW Transporter to electric, I would die kill for that car.
> 
> However, having our government telling everyone to go out and buy one is another example of the left's out of touch arrogance and elitism (like, "just go get a job building solar panels").  What percentage of our population can afford an electric car?  Furthermore, these vehicles are meant to be charged overnight at home.  If you own a home that's fine, but if your renting, how are you charging that car?  Are we going to require landlords to install chargers for every tenant?
> 
> ...


Thanks bro.  I just want a little choice. * Have you heard of Magnetism?*  Think of the gr8t number 8 of eternal energy and it's free, just like electricity should be free but.  These freaks are control freaks and full of materialism and evil.  I kid you not.  I will stand up to them because of what they did to the kids.  Wat fly man, I swear I came here to take these selfish asshats on.  Will I die for speaking up for allowing kids to live and be free, hell yes I will.  Will I die for a kid that has no one to die for them?  Yes!!! 

What is a simple definition of magnetism?
*Magnetism* is the force exerted by *magnets* when they attract or repel each other. *Magnetism* is caused by the motion of electric charges. Every substance is made up of tiny units called* atoms. .*.. Their movement generates an electric current and causes each electron to act like a microscopic magnet.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You can measure that long tailpipe.
> 
> Include the energy used to make the battery.   Mining and smelting aren’t clean, so also include the emissions.
> 
> ...


I am not arguing against electric vehicles. 

I am just pointing out that a substantial percentage of people have no idea that their vehicle is still powered by fossil fuels.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> How is it possible?  You just need a charismatic populist and a mob of idiots willing to storm the Reichstag.  It helps if your charismatic populist is willing to stir up racial divisions.
> 
> Sound familiar?  Listen to Liz Cheney.  She’s busy trying to spell it out for you.


Lol!!  "dictatorial power, *forcible suppression of opposition and strong regimentation of society and of the economy* which came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe, does sound familiar.  Very familiar.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Listen to Liz Cheney.  She’s busy trying to spell it out for you.


She's actually trying to spell it for you...... *"dictatorial power*, *forcible suppression of opposition and strong regimentation of society and of the economy* which came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe


----------



## espola (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You can measure that long tailpipe.
> 
> Include the energy used to make the battery.   Mining and smelting aren’t clean, so also include the emissions.
> 
> ...


One must also factor in the growing proportion of electricity that is produced by renewables 





__





						California ISO - Supply
					

View real-time and historical data on generation resources, including renewables, currently on the system.



					www.caiso.com
				




A lot of small engines scattered across the landscape burning hydrocarbons to make energy is about the least efficient method imaginable.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

_*The State is almost universally considered an institution of social service.*_ Some theorists venerate the State as the apotheosis of society; others regard it as an amiable, though often inefficient, organization for achieving social ends; but almost all regard it as a necessary means for achieving the goals of mankind, a means to be ranged against the “private sector” and often winning in this competition of resources. *With the rise of democracy, the identification of the State with society has been redoubled, until it is common to hear sentiments expressed which violate virtually every tenet of reason and common sense such as, “we are the government.” The useful collective term “we” has enabled an ideological camouflage to be thrown over the reality of political life. If “we are the government,” then anything a government does to an individual is not only just and un-tyrannical but also “voluntary” on the part of the individual concerned. If the government has incurred a huge public debt which must be paid by taxing one group for the benefit of another, this reality of burden is obscured by saying that “we owe it to ourselves”; if the government conscripts a man, or throws him into jail for dissident opinion, then he is “doing it to himself” and, therefore, nothing untoward has occurred. Under this reasoning, any Jews murdered by the Nazi government were not murdered; instead, they must have “commit- ted suicide,” since they were the government (which was democratically chosen), and, there- fore, anything the government did to them was voluntary on their part. One would not think it necessary to belabor this point, and yet the overwhelming bulk of the people hold this fallacy to a greater or lesser degree. --Rothbard     *


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> One must also factor in the growing proportion of electricity that is produced by renewables
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The growing proportion?  Never thought I'd read those flat earth words in one of your post.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> One must also factor in the growing proportion of electricity that is produced by renewables
> 
> 
> 
> ...


No, gasoline is not the worst imaginable.  That honor goes to hydrogen.

We heat natural gas with steam, collect the hydrogen, lose half the hydrogen as we ship it around, and then use the remaining hydrogen to run fuel cell vehicles.  As a bonus, the fuel cell vehicle uses more resources to create than most other vehicles use over the lifetime of the car.

I’m all for making our car fleet better, but that means we have to think with our heads, not our hearts.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

*"Eagle one nine, Eagle one nine, do you copy?"  Time to help the kids.  If anyone likes to help people who are down on their luck, then you will be in high demand.  Those who think their life is way better then all the rest, then enjoy your life alone.  This planet is in need of big time healing because of the Big Lie put on all of us so just a few can win.  

*


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Oh shit, breaking news.  Look what Dr F is saying and the CDC.  My question for dad 4.  How does one know if the human without a mask on had the "V-Shots?"  Magnet on their arm?  The "V" or mark of the beast on their forehead?  What if my "V" stands for Veggie's Only?  This is starting to get freaking crazy. 


*CDC to say people fully vaccinated against COVID can stop wearing masks while inside in most places*

Fauci says vaccinated people 'don't have to wear a mask outside'


----------



## watfly (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10750


Ok, maybe some people do need government mandates.  I'm super curious about how they got the fuel from the plastic bag into the gas tank.









						Don't fill plastic bags with gas, safety agency warns
					

The US Consumer Product Safety Commission warned Americans Wednesday not to fill plastic bags with gasoline as a fuel shortage strikes the East Coast.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Grace T. (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> Oh shit, breaking news.  Look what Dr F is saying and the CDC.  My question for dad 4.  How does one know if the human without a mask on had the "V-Shots?"  Magnet on their arm?  The "V" or mark of the beast on their forehead?  What if my "V" stands for Veggie's Only?  This is starting to get freaking crazy.
> 
> 
> *CDC to say people fully vaccinated against COVID can stop wearing masks while inside in most places*
> ...



But but but what about the variants?????????

BTW, if fully vaccinated could ditch their masks it means it probably (other than as a show of solidarity and to make policing easier) was o.k. for people who had to COVID recently to go without a mask, as Rand Paul had been arguing to Fauci.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> But but but what about the variants?????????
> 
> BTW, if fully vaccinated could ditch their masks it means it probably (other than as a show of solidarity and to make policing easier) was o.k. for people who had to COVID recently to go without a mask, as Rand Paul had been arguing to Fauci.


But but but what about the girl at grocery store who raises her voice at me right now and get's all frantic because I have no mask?  Just wait until she's in charge to see if it's ok not to wear a mask.  This is starting to get interesting.  Can you buy and sell without the "V" on the arm or forehead?


----------



## Grace T. (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No, gasoline is not the worst imaginable.


This is the most classist, ivory tower thing you have said yet.   Of course in your zoom fortress you don't need gas.  Even if I were back in the office, I wouldn't need gas...I could just remote in my work and the bosses would nod and understand.  A teacher wouldn't need it because the union would protect them and just call a gas day holiday anyway (since the kids would be missing too).  But if you are working that factory or restaurant or janitorial gig, you better find a way in.....at least in the big city you have the metros and buses, not so in the rest of America.

BTW, it's also why doctors in the 70s got gas priority....we wanted them to show up to work....my mom always had to borrow my dad's car to shuffle us around.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No, gasoline is not the worst imaginable.  That honor goes to hydrogen.
> 
> We heat natural gas with steam, collect the hydrogen, lose half the hydrogen as we ship it around, and then use the remaining hydrogen to run fuel cell vehicles.  As a bonus, the fuel cell vehicle uses more resources to create than most other vehicles use over the lifetime of the car.
> 
> I’m all for making our car fleet better, but that means we have to think with our heads, not our hearts.


Well, well, well.  Looky here.  How do we make our car fleets better than the plastic cars that we now build.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> But but but what about the variants?????????
> 
> BTW, if fully vaccinated could ditch their masks it means it probably (other than as a show of solidarity and to make policing easier) was o.k. for people who had to COVID recently to go without a mask, as Rand Paul had been arguing to Fauci.


What a novel idea.  Not as novel as Corona though.  Lol!!


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is the most classist, ivory tower thing you have said yet.   Of course in your zoom fortress you don't need gas.  Even if I were back in the office, I wouldn't need gas...I could just remote in my work and the bosses would nod and understand.  A teacher wouldn't need it because the union would protect them and just call a gas day holiday anyway (since the kids would be missing too).  But if you are working that factory or restaurant or janitorial gig, you better find a way in.....at least in the big city you have the metros and buses, not so in the rest of America.
> 
> BTW, it's also why doctors in the 70s got gas priority....we wanted them to show up to work....my mom always had to borrow my dad's car to shuffle us around.


Read the sentence.  Read the sentence I replied to. Think.  Parse.  Repeat.   

( My post was not advocating an end to gas cars.  It was mocking one of the suggested replacements. )


----------



## Desert Hound (May 13, 2021)

watfly said:


> Ok, maybe some people do need government mandates.  I'm super curious about how they got the fuel from the plastic bag into the gas tank.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

*Bill DeBlasio Eats French Fries On Zoom Call, Touts Shake Shack Giving Away Free Fries For Vaccinated People…*


The mayor of NYC is eating unhealthy French Fries and also giving a plug to a pal that anyone who comes to the Shake Shake will also get free fries if they got both shots.  This is insane.  I'm sorry but Shakes & Fries & Cheese Burgers does not sound like the real "V" we all need.  How does one show Shake Shake they got the shots?  "V" on their forehead or on their arm?  Papers?  Or do we just say, "I got the "V?"  Dad or Espoala, please answer.  Also, what about the non vaxxers dad?  No free fries for us?  Sounds like division again to me.  What a crock.  I should get free fries too for eating all my veggies and fruits.  No shakes for me although I would take a free smoothie


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Think.  Parse.  Repeat.


Great idea.  Completely decoupled from reality.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

So if you live in Columbus, OH, you get a chance to win a $1,000,000 if you get the shots.  Shake Shack is giving away free fries.  Here's my deal to anyone WHO wants to make deal for me.  <y wife and kids can each make their own deal.  I will take two shots made from Billy's fake company or Mr. Johnsons only if I am promised eternal life in Paradise.  If someone can make that deal with me, I'm all in


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> *Bill DeBlasio Eats French Fries On Zoom Call, Touts Shake Shack Giving Away Free Fries For Vaccinated People…*
> View attachment 10755
> 
> The mayor of NYC is eating unhealthy French Fries and also giving a plug to a pal that anyone who comes to the Shake Shake will also get free fries if they got both shots.  This is insane.  I'm sorry but Shakes & Fries & Cheese Burgers does not sound like the real "V" we all need.  How does one show Shake Shake they got the shots?  "V" on their forehead or on their arm?  Papers?  Or do we just say, "I got the "V?"  Dad or Espoala, please answer.  Also, what about the non vaxxers dad?  No free fries for us?  Sounds like division again to me.  What a crock.  I should get free fries too for eating all my veggies and fruits.  No shakes for me although I would take a free smoothie


They probably just look at your sticker.  Fries are almost free to them anyway.  It’s worth it to get you in the door.  Same as they might give away free fries when the Yankees clinch the division.

No fries for me.  I eat my veggies and got my shot.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> So if you live in Columbus, OH, you get a chance to win a $1,000,000 if you get the shots.  Shake Shack is giving away free fries.  Here's my deal to anyone WHO wants to make deal for me.  <y wife and kids can each make their own deal.  I will take two shots made from Billy's fake company or Mr. Johnsons only if I am promised eternal life in Paradise.  If someone can make that deal with me, I'm all in


Sure.  I promise you that, if you get your covid shot, God will see that your care about your fellow man, and he will reward you with eternal life in paradise.

Now you have your promise.  Go get your shot.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> They probably just look at your sticker.  Fries are almost free to them anyway.  It’s worth it to get you in the door.  Same as they might give away free fries when the Yankees clinch the division.
> 
> No fries for me.  I eat my veggies and got my shot.


How would you feel if the shoe was on the other foot?


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 13, 2021)

At least 10 a day in La County:


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> How would you feel if the shoe was on the other foot?


I’d hate it.  

There is no way around it, though.  The vaccinated folks essentially don’t spread covid.  The non-vaccinated folks do.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sure.  I promise you that, if you get your covid *shot*, God will see that your care about your fellow man, and he will reward you with eternal life in paradise.
> 
> Now you have your promise.  Go get your shot.


Shots bro.  Two shots or no fries or chance at a million dollars and one every year after that.  Nice try with the shot lie.  First off, you're an atheists so you dont count.  Plus, your promises mean nothing and ring shallow, Hal.  Dad, you need to be in the Angelic Realm in order for me to take that deal. I already told the devil to stick it where the sun dont shine.  I know 1/3 of the Angels bailed on Paradise and went to war with Lucifer.  Good vs Evil, Light vs Dark, Truth vs Liar, Life vs Death, Heaven vs Hell and so forth.  Love vs Hate.  Mercy?  Get ready for the best movie ever made.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 10754


No dummy!!  Put the plastic bag in the foam cooler then fill the bag with gas!


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’d hate it.
> 
> There is no way around it, though.  The vaccinated folks essentially don’t spread covid.  *The non-vaccinated folks do.*


Are you so dull?   So what do you, The V person have to be afraid of?  You're protected and all sealed up.  The non-V folks have already agreed to say know.  If one of us were to die from the flu, we will all be ok with it because we already know bad things can happen.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

This guy will 100% let others know what it's like to have the shoe on the other foot.  This was the wrong guy to f with, trust me.  I hear right now people are singing to him, literally.  No one is being forced to write and compose their own song to save their sons life.  Nope, they just have to sing a confession and ask for forgiveness and then make a deal.  The Bay has some nice beach front housing for those who confess and help out.  The liars and hard hearted cheats, they will go down down down.  I have a dear pal who knows MF personally and let me tell you, this guy is the real deal.  Honest as they come.  Dad, EOTL, Espola, Messy and Husker thought Gen Flynn would roll right over and compose.  The shoe is now on the other foot


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

*"Cancelling student debt is popular with the American people. And it's the right thing to do. Today would be a great day for President Biden to #CancelStudentDebt."*

Chuck thinks it a good time to cancel all debt.  I mean if you cancel all student loans, you might as well go all in and cancel all loans.  Right?  I told so many on here that this whole system is baked with a shit full of lies.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You can measure that long tailpipe.
> 
> Include the energy used to make the battery.   Mining and smelting aren’t clean, so also include the emissions.
> 
> ...


If you really want to have a serious discussion about emissions and emissions only, why aren't we talking about Nuclear.  

*Naval reactors have* an outstanding record of over 134 million miles safely steamed on *nuclear power*, and they *have* amassed over 5700 reactor-years of safe operation. Currently, the *U.S. has* 83 *nuclear*-powered ships: 72 submarines, 10 aircraft carriers and one research vessel.

Nuclear Power


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> Are you so dull?   So what do you, The V person have to be afraid of?  You're protected and all sealed up.  The non-V folks have already agreed to say know.  If one of us were to die from the flu, we will all be ok with it because we already know bad things can happen.


I went for Pfizer, not J&J.  So I’m not done yet.  I’ve had my second shot but I’m waiting my 2 weeks before I completely relax.  

If you go for J&J it’s just one shot.  So you’re fully vaccinated in 2 weeks.

Not so much fear as wanting to do my part. Totally plan to have a nice dinner out at the end of my 2 weeks.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I went for Pfizer, not J&J.  So I’m not done yet.  I’ve had my second shot but I’m waiting my 2 weeks before I completely relax.
> 
> If you go for J&J it’s just one shot.  So you’re fully vaccinated in 2 weeks.
> 
> Not so much fear as wanting to do my part. Totally plan to have a nice dinner out at the end of my 2 weeks.


Well, what if the owner says, "anyone who got the Johnson or P fi zer is not allowed to eat inside my business.  My dd is pregnant and I also have two other dds that want to still have kids some day.  So you can only eat alone, outside in the canopy for one person.  Sorry Charlie.....that is called the shoe is on the other foot dad


----------



## Desert Hound (May 13, 2021)

Took them long enough to make this announcement.

"People who are fully vaccinated against coronavirus *no longer need to wear masks while indoors or outdoors or physical distance in either large or small gatherings*, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky announced during a White House COVID-19 briefing Thursday."


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> If you really want to have a serious discussion about emissions and emissions only, why aren't we talking about Nuclear.
> 
> *Naval reactors have* an outstanding record of over 134 million miles safely steamed on *nuclear power*, and they *have* amassed over 5700 reactor-years of safe operation. Currently, the *U.S. has* 83 *nuclear*-powered ships: 72 submarines, 10 aircraft carriers and one research vessel.
> 
> Nuclear Power


The fair comparison is coal power plants versus nuclear ones.  Naval reactors can scram.  Power plants can’t.

Nuclear has to take credit for Chernobyl, Fukushima, and long term waste disposal.

Coal has to take credit for CO2 levels, air pollution, mining accidents, and mercury in the oceans.

My view is that nuclear wins the argument, but it’s not quite as simple as you imply.  Justifying that 10,000 year waste storage burden is a heavy lift.  You have to assume some amount of containment leaks over that time.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Took them long enough to make this announcement.
> 
> "People who are fully vaccinated against coronavirus *no longer need to wear masks while indoors or outdoors or physical distance in either large or small gatherings*, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky announced during a White House COVID-19 briefing Thursday."


Yay!!!!  Now, what about those who say, "no?"  How do we separate the sheep from the goats?  Or do we need to all live together and not judge someone who believes in the "V" to save them.  I will not judge dad or anyone for taking the dbl shot bat virus that Dr F was working on back in the day.  My wife and my best pal, who is a Dr, told me a long time ago to stay clear of anything man made that has BG next to it.  BTW, Billy, Jeff and Alex are now divorced Hound.  Ellen is now retired because she say's it's just that time.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> Well, what if the owner says, "anyone who got the Johnson or P fi zer is not allowed to eat inside my business.  My dd is pregnant and I also have two other dds that want to still have kids some day.  So you can only eat alone, outside in the canopy for one person.  Sorry Charlie.....that is called the shoe is on the other foot dad
> 
> View attachment 10759


Well, if there were any actual science behind the second hand vaccination fears, you’d have a point.

In this case, you may as well be telling me that Elvis is playing concerts for the aliens we are hiding in Area 51.  You’ve been misled by one of the weirder corners of the internet.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I went for Pfizer, not J&J.  So I’m not done yet.  I’ve had my second shot but I’m waiting my 2 weeks before I completely relax.
> 
> If you go for J&J it’s just one shot.  So you’re fully vaccinated in 2 weeks.
> 
> Not so much fear as wanting to do my part. Totally plan to have a nice dinner out at the end of my 2 weeks.


If I were you, I would never relax with that fake vaccine in you.  But hey, a little bit of Pathogenic priming never hurt anyone.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

Biden’s Energy Secretary On Gas Crisis: If You Drove an Electric Car, ‘This Would Not Be Affecting You’

S-model payment of $1400/mo.??!  It better not.  If I plug in for a recharge and that doesn't work, I'm gonna stick the charging cable up Joe's butt to see if I can get some Natural Gas.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> long term waste disposal.


What do you think we will do with all the Lithium Ion after those electric cars die?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The fair comparison is coal power plants versus nuclear ones.  Naval reactors can scram.  Power plants can’t.
> 
> Nuclear has to take credit for Chernobyl, Fukushima, and long term waste disposal.
> 
> ...


Who said it was simple?  Ever served on a Nuclear powered aircraft carrier?  Simple is the last word that comes to mind.  What does come to mind is trade offs.  You can't cry CO2 boogeyman, a.k.a. plant food, if you're not willing to learn from Chernobyl and Fukushima.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 13, 2021)

I also love how CA is promoting replacing grass with turf or hardscape…..Grass recycles CO2 into O2…Turf or Hardscape, not so much.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> What do you think we will do with all the Lithium Ion after those electric cars die?


Treat the batteries as high grade lithium ore and start over.

I'm sure there are plenty of industrial chemists working on improving the process.  Worst case you dissolve the whole thing in acid and you have a lithium solution like you started with.  I'm sure they have better ideas than that by now.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’d hate it.
> 
> There is no way around it, though.  The vaccinated folks essentially don’t spread covid.  The non-vaccinated folks do.


The Corona infected and recovered folks, more so than vaxed folks, don’t spread either.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)




----------



## Glitterhater (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Well, if there were any actual science behind the second hand vaccination fears, you’d have a point.
> 
> In this case, you may as well be telling me that Elvis is playing concerts for the aliens we are hiding in Area 51.  You’ve been misled by one of the weirder corners of the internet.


I can only guess who you're talking to, and this is funny as shit. LOL


----------



## Glitterhater (May 13, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I also love how CA is promoting replacing grass with turf or hardscape…..Grass recycles CO2 into O2…Turf or Hardscape, not so much.


Not a huge turf fan myself. Wasn't there an investigation into cancer rates and goalies? Who were constantly diving on the turf?


----------



## espola (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The fair comparison is coal power plants versus nuclear ones.  Naval reactors can scram.  Power plants can’t.
> 
> Nuclear has to take credit for Chernobyl, Fukushima, and long term waste disposal.
> 
> ...


All commercial reactors have some sort of SCRAM mechanism.  It is required by their license.

Coal plants are permitted to emit radioactive material in their waste (including atmospheric smoke) at a level much higher than any nuclear plant.

The Gates Foundation is funding a new reactor design that uses as its fuel what is essentially burned out commercial reactor fuel and has a much cheaper and supposedly safer design by cooling the reactor core with liquid sodium, so that a high-pressure reactor vessel is not required.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> All commercial reactors have some sort of SCRAM mechanism.  It is required by their license.
> 
> Coal plants are permitted to emit radioactive material in their waste (including atmospheric smoke) at a level much higher than any nuclear plant.
> 
> The Gates Foundation is funding a new reactor design that uses as its fuel what is essentially burned out commercial reactor fuel and has a much cheaper and supposedly safer design by cooling the reactor core with liquid sodium, so that a high-pressure reactor vessel is not required.


Ok.  Some kind of scram.  Not the same as using an ocean for your coolant.

If we let the nuclear side justify things with not yet extant technology, then we have to do the same for coal.  But that is silly.  My vaporware versus your vaporware.

Past record versus past record is more accurate.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


>


This made me sick to my tummy


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I can only guess who you're talking to, and this is funny as shit. LOL


Hater, this is not funny


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Not a huge turf fan myself. Wasn't there an investigation into cancer rates and goalies? Who were constantly diving on the turf?


Turf sucks!!!!


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Mr President, I have a question.  Well, can dad, hater, espola, husker or anyone for that matter help me with my question.  How does one know if they got the freaking shots?  Please, someone tell me.  Thank you.  This is now starting to get serious losers!!!!  This makes no sense and he won't answer a follow up question to anything.  

*Biden says allowing fully vaccinated to go maskless indoors is a ‘great milestone’*
*'Get vaccinated or wear a mask until you do,' the president said*


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)




----------



## espola (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ok.  Some kind of scram.  Not the same as using an ocean for your coolant.
> 
> If we let the nuclear side justify things with not yet extant technology, then we have to do the same for coal.  But that is silly.  My vaporware versus your vaporware.
> 
> Past record versus past record is more accurate.


A SCRAM is not adding coolant, it is adding neutron absorbers (typically cadmium or boron) that will stop the chain reaction.

One point the Gates Foundation makes in its promotional materials is that all existing commercial reactors in the US were designed with slide rules.  Now they are using computers for calculations and simulations.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> A SCRAM is not adding coolant, it is adding neutron absorbers (typically cadmium or boron) that will stop the chain reaction.
> 
> One point the Gates Foundation makes in its promotional materials is that all existing commercial reactors in the US were designed with slide rules.  Now they are using computers for calculations and simulations.


Dude got problems on his hand right about now.  Do you know where he is right now smart pants?  Take a wild guess........


----------



## Desert Hound (May 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Took them long enough to make this announcement.
> 
> "People who are fully vaccinated against coronavirus *no longer need to wear masks while indoors or outdoors or physical distance in either large or small gatherings*, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky announced during a White House COVID-19 briefing Thursday."


@espola just a week or so ago was saying vaccines don't work like this. Despite the fact with every other vaccine vaccine once vaccinated we tell people to act normal.

Today the CDC moved away from their political stance and went back to the science. Once vaccinated you are good to go.

Maybe you should do some homework as to how vaccines work and what we have always done after vaccines are widely distributed.


----------



## espola (May 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> @espola just a week or so ago was saying vaccines don't work like this. Despite the fact with every other vaccine vaccine once vaccinated we tell people to act normal.
> 
> Today the CDC moved away from their political stance and went back to the science. Once vaccinated you are good to go.
> 
> Maybe you should do some homework as to how vaccines work and what we have always done after vaccines are widely distributed.


What did I say?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Past record versus past record is more accurate.


Huh? Funny that never came up in our discussions of NPI, lockdowns, etc.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> A SCRAM is not adding coolant, it is adding neutron absorbers (typically cadmium or boron) that will stop the chain reaction.
> 
> One point the Gates Foundation makes in its promotional materials is that all existing commercial reactors in the US were designed with slide rules.  Now they are using computers for calculations and simulations.


So what do you call it when you flush vast quantities of ocean water through the whole thing to absorb excess heat?

I clearly forget the right terms.  My point was just that the relative size of reactor to cooling tower is a wee bit different.   You can't just look at nuclear subs and assume power plants are the same.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> @espola just a week or so ago was saying vaccines don't work like this. Despite the fact with every other vaccine vaccine once vaccinated we tell people to act normal.
> 
> Today the CDC moved away from their political stance and went back to the science. Once vaccinated you are good to go.
> 
> Maybe you should do some homework as to how vaccines work and what we have always done after vaccines are widely distributed.


Or maybe CDC changes guidance as we get more evidence.

We now have good evidence on whether and how much these particular vaccines reduce transmission.  Two months ago, we did not.

If you actually do your homework, the CDC already gave examples of other vaccines which were good at improving outcomes, but bad at reducing transmission.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)




----------



## espola (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So what do you call it when you flush vast quantities of ocean water through the whole thing to absorb excess heat?
> 
> I clearly forget the right terms.  My point was just that the relative size of reactor to cooling tower is a wee bit different.   You can't just look at nuclear subs and assume power plants are the same.


US Navy ship and sub reactors are all pressurized water reactors, the design of which inhibits pumping any outside water into the core.  The next loop in the steam generator uses fresh water only.  Sea water is only allowed in the condenser loop, where the steam exiting the turbines is chilled back to fresh water for re-use in the steam generator.

Perhaps you were alluding to the fact that if the reactor has severe accident and pops open the heat and ugly residues will be absorbed in the surrounding ocean.


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> US Navy ship and sub reactors are all pressurized water reactors, the design of which inhibits pumping any outside water into the core.  The next loop in the steam generator uses fresh water only.  Sea water is only allowed in the condenser loop, where the steam exiting the turbines is chilled back to fresh water for re-use in the steam generator.
> 
> Perhaps you were alluding to the fact that if the reactor has severe accident and pops open the heat and ugly residues will be absorbed in the surrounding ocean.


Or the naval reactor tech I talked to last served in the 1970s.

Could just be that designs were different then.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10760


Perfect.  always had simple questions for the self proclaimed intelligent that they couldn’t answer.  Granted you didn’t really need R-squared to show that cases weren’t driving deaths.  It was just obvious.


----------



## espola (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Or the naval reactor tech I talked to last served in the 1970s.
> 
> Could just be that designs were different then.


I like the fact that all Navy reactor operators sleep just a short distance from the core.


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Perfect.  always had simple questions for the self proclaimed intelligent that they couldn’t answer.  Granted you didn’t really need R-squared to show that cases weren’t driving deaths.  It was just obvious.


Do you see dad & espola having their own conversations back & forth?  He's cray, cray Bruddah and a dumb all in one.  Talk about talking to one's self.  EOTL was coo coo and so full of evil and hate.  This dad 4 and espoal are both full of nonsense and poop.  Dividers of our great country.  Go USA forever


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

Good news everyone who is not ignoring me.  These little ones in Texas can now live if they can prove they have a heart that beats.


----------



## N00B (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> I will take two shots made from Billy's fake company or Mr. Johnsons only if I am promised eternal life in Paradise.  If someone can make that deal with me, I'm all in


Assuming you think that getting vaccinated is some kind of sin (can’t say that I agree), then repent and ask for forgiveness.  The guy upstairs already made that deal with mankind.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> Do you see dad & espola having their own conversations back & forth?  He's cray, cray Bruddah and a dumb all in one.  Talk about talking to one's self.  EOTL was coo coo and so full of evil and hate.  This dad 4 and espoal are both full of nonsense and poop.  Dividers of our great country.  Go USA forever


They were born without immune systems.  So they don’t get the viral updates that would have strengthened their spines.


----------



## espola (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> What did I say?


Something like this?

"Remember, the COVID vaccines don't guarantee you won't get infected, but are highly effective in shielding you from serious illness and hospitalization. Bill's a perfect example of that."









						Bill Maher Tests Positive for COVID-19, Pauses 'Real Time'
					

Bill Maher has tested positive for COVID-19.




					www.tmz.com


----------



## crush (May 13, 2021)

N00B said:


> Assuming you think that getting vaccinated is some kind of sin (can’t say that I agree), then repent and ask for forgiveness.  The guy upstairs already made that deal with mankind.


I dont think it's a sin to take the shots.  I promise.  I just dont think I should have to take them and that is where the sin is, forcing me to take BG's goods.  I told all of you that this is what it's truly about 16 months ago.  Bill Maher got two shots and now he's at home with the Rona.  They shut down filming, why?


----------



## Grace T. (May 13, 2021)

CDC has torched its public trust.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392818997465423875


----------



## N00B (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Something like this?
> 
> "Remember, the COVID vaccines don't guarantee you won't get infected, but are highly effective in shielding you from serious illness and hospitalization. Bill's a perfect example of that."
> 
> ...


Breakthrough case or false positive?  Time will tell... I assume PCR tests would find the presence of the virus in the nasal passages of immune individuals from time to time.  Just most of us don’t get tested on a regular basis when healthy.


----------



## N00B (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> I dont think it's a sin to take the shots.  I promise.  I just dont think I should have to take them and that is where the sin is, forcing me to take BG's goods.  I told all of you that this is what it's truly about 16 months ago.  Bill Maher got two shots and now he's at home with the Rona.  They shut down filming, why?


Poking fun at your choice of words, not your personal choice regarding a vaccine...

You went from ‘Let’s make a deal’ to I choose not to  do so to deny those that would sin against you (in your opinion).

I’ll admit to being devout to my beliefs, but I don’t see this discussion as religious in nature and I don’t see why you pepper your posts on this topic with religious overtones and imagery.

You don’t want the vaccine and don’t want to feel pressured/required to take it. Nuff said.

Proselytize all you want, but please don’t conflate your personal beliefs with religion... it gives the wrong impression.


----------



## espola (May 13, 2021)

N00B said:


> Breakthrough case or false positive?  Time will tell... I assume PCR tests would find the presence of the virus in the nasal passages of immune individuals from time to time.  Just most of us don’t get tested on a regular basis when healthy.


In order for the vaccine to suppress the vaccine in you, the virus first has to be in you.  A vaccinated person is less likely to get every sick, but the virus can still be alive and available to be passed on to another.

I am supposing that Mahr and others in similar positions are tested regularly (weekly perhaps?) just like pro athletes are.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> I like the fact that all Navy reactor operators sleep just a short distance from the core.


But not nearly as close as they do to the ICBM’s


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Something like this?
> 
> "Remember, the COVID vaccines don't guarantee you won't get infected, but are highly effective in shielding you from serious illness and hospitalization.


Coocoo


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

crush said:


> I dont think it's a sin to take the shots.  I promise.  I just dont think I should have to take them and that is where the sin is, forcing me to take BG's goods.  I told all of you that this is what it's truly about 16 months ago.  Bill Maher got two shots and now he's at home with the Rona.  They shut down filming, why?


Went to a soccer game tonight.  Lots of unmasked folks.  Several of the masked ones were fully vaccinated.  Vaxspola thinks we need a virus shield.  Never thought of him as Corporate shill.  I was wrong.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

espola said:


> In order for the vaccine to suppress the vaccine in you, the virus first has to be in you.  A vaccinated person is less likely to get every sick, but the virus can still be alive and available to be passed on to another.
> 
> I am supposing that Mahr and others in similar positions are tested regularly (weekly perhaps?) just like pro athletes are.


You're babbling


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 13, 2021)

N00B said:


> Breakthrough case or false positive?  Time will tell... I assume PCR tests would find the presence of the virus in the nasal passages of immune individuals from time to time.  Just most of us don’t get tested on a regular basis when healthy.


PCR testing was not surprisingly useless.  Cases vs. deaths proved it.  Why were we testing asymptomatic folks?


----------



## Grace T. (May 13, 2021)

Interesting....caveated that small retail has problems with contact tracing, and restaurant contact tracing is imperfect and there's this large undetermined section and data is limited but....

"Bars, gyms and restaurants.  Those were just a few settings health experts warned could become hotbeds for COVID 19 spread....yet public data analyzed by ABC News appears to tell a diifferent story....only accounted for a small percentage, if any, of new outbreaks after the pandemic's initial wave in 2020"  My guess is that because while indoor bars, gyms and restaurants may not be advisable on an individual/micro basis for any individual since it represents a significant rise in risk profile, because so many people freak out and because of the mitigation protocols in effect on a macro level the footprint just isn't that big.

Health care and social assistance has a moderate footprint of 2% despite the vaccination drive targeting health care workers early on.

Religious gatherings proved to be especially a problem in North Carolina.

Factory and animal food processing workers were particularly at risk (probably because of the long time of exposure).

Schools also have represented a bit of an outbreak problem, particularly in college settings, though there were outbreaks reported in K-12.









						Where COVID-19 has and hasn't spread since states reopened: Analysis
					

A look at public health data in several states by ABC News revealed the locations of the most COVID-19 outbreaks following their reopenings.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## dad4 (May 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interesting....caveated that small retail has problems with contact tracing, and restaurant contact tracing is imperfect and there's this large undetermined section and data is limited but....
> 
> "Bars, gyms and restaurants.  Those were just a few settings health experts warned could become hotbeds for COVID 19 spread....yet public data analyzed by ABC News appears to tell a diifferent story....only accounted for a small percentage, if any, of new outbreaks after the pandemic's initial wave in 2020"  My guess is that because while indoor bars, gyms and restaurants may not be advisable on an individual/micro basis for any individual since it represents a significant rise in risk profile, because so many people freak out and because of the mitigation protocols in effect on a macro level the footprint just isn't that big.
> 
> ...


Sounds like the story was run before it had anything to back it up.

Your first sentence explains the flaw in the abc methodology.   If your contact tracing doesn’t work well in gyms, then contact tracing can’t tell you much about gyms.

You expect the contact tracing to return almost no information about gyms.  And, when you use it, it returns almost no information.

How is that interesting?  It’s like reading the printout when the printer is completely out of toner.  I expected a blank sheet of paper, and I got one.  To be interesting, shouldn’t it contain some information?


----------



## Grace T. (May 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sounds like the story was run before it had anything to back it up.
> 
> Your first sentence explains the flaw in the abc methodology.   If your contact tracing doesn’t work well in gyms, then contact tracing can’t tell you much about gyms.
> 
> ...


Funny how you love certain news sources and certain experts when they agree with you......

Yeah I acknowledged the limitations.  Still it's interesting for what it's worth in its limited value.  they could have said it's just inconclusive. and acknowledged the blank sheet of paper but they didn't.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

N00B said:


> Poking fun at your choice of words, not your personal choice regarding a vaccine...
> 
> You went from ‘Let’s make a deal’ to I choose not to  do so to deny those that would sin against you (in your opinion).
> 
> ...


You and I disagree.  This is not about religion, nuff said.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Or "tricked" into trying to become a millionaire by taking the shots.  If you dont win $1,000,000, then second place is free fries at Shake Shack.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

I told anyone WHO would listen that it's a choice of Light or Darkness.  Q for all the smart academics ((Interesting that demic is in the word Aca demic)).  JB has now made it a simple choice.  Get the shot or wear mask until you get your shot, the choice is yours.  Yay, we have freedom finally.  I will sit down with my wife and decide together.  This is going to be a very difficult decision for each of us.


----------



## Grace T. (May 14, 2021)

crush said:


> I told anyone WHO would listen that it's a choice of Light or Darkness.  Q for all the smart academics ((Interesting that demic is in the word Aca demic)).  JB has now made it a simple choice.  Get the shot or wear mask until you get your shot, the choice is yours.  Yay, we have freedom finally.  I will sit down with my wife and decide together.  This is going to be a very difficult decision for each of us.
> 
> View attachment 10766


A. Talking to people like a teacher talks to 3rd graders is going to persuade no one
B. The unvaccinated will just lie and go without
C. The only people this is going to hurt are 2-12 year old who will continue to have to wear masks as a result (newsom has “clarified” a couple times on the masks are gone statement....we’ll see what he does with this)
D. The summer camp guidance revision that’s coming out will be interesting as a result....basically if you are vaccinated normal experience probably but if not then maybe not


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A. Talking to people like a teacher talks to 3rd graders is going to persuade no one
> B. The unvaccinated will just lie and go without
> C. The only people this is going to hurt are 2-12 year old who will continue to have to wear masks as a result (newsom has “clarified” a couple times on the masks are gone statement....we’ll see what he does with this)
> D. The summer camp guidance revision that’s coming out will be interesting as a result....basically if you are vaccinated normal experience probably but if not then maybe not


Grace, what is your prediction regarding my wife and I who have worked their asses off to be the healthiest ever?  Can I just give a verbal V sign?  14 months ago I dreamed of putting on a pair of Levi's that were size 32.  My son said, "no way dad."  Last night, they fit perfect and a little loose.  So now i'm going for size 30.  Swimming, walking, eating veggies, fruits and nuts has done wonders.  I also told my son I will have six pack before I'm 55. Well, I'm getting close.  Super super hard and takes saying "no" to temptation.  For example, when I was living a nightmare four years ago trying to keep up with all the Normal Families, I was eating the worse kind of foods on the road all because I was trying to retire some day.  I was 218 but looking 235.  I also got ripped off by some asshats, but that was my fault and I learned my lesson.  I took personal responsibility with my inner pain and decided to go inside first ((my brain)) and took control of bad habits I was making and made that change.  I'm so happy I did


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interesting....caveated that small retail has problems with contact tracing, and restaurant contact tracing is imperfect and there's this large undetermined section and data is limited but....
> 
> "Bars, gyms and restaurants.  Those were just a few settings health experts warned could become hotbeds for COVID 19 spread....yet public data analyzed by ABC News appears to tell a diifferent story....only accounted for a small percentage, if any, of new outbreaks after the pandemic's initial wave in 2020"  My guess is that because while indoor bars, gyms and restaurants may not be advisable on an individual/micro basis for any individual since it represents a significant rise in risk profile, because so many people freak out and because of the mitigation protocols in effect on a macro level the footprint just isn't that big.
> 
> ...


Due diligence did not apply to the case hysteria crowd.  Socialism is establishing multiple foot holds.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> CDC has torched its public trust.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392818997465423875


On Thursday, the governors of Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina,  and Virginia, and the mayors of New York City and Washington, D.C., all Democrats, said they were *taking the new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under advisement before adopting it.* In deference to local authorities, the C.D.C. said vaccinated people must continue to abide by existing state, local, or tribal laws and regulations, and follow local rules for businesses and workplaces.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> On Thursday, the governors of Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina,  and Virginia, and the mayors of New York City and Washington, D.C., all Democrats, said they were *taking the new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under advisement before adopting it.* In deference to local authorities, the C.D.C. said vaccinated people must continue to abide by existing state, local, or tribal laws and regulations, and follow local rules for businesses and workplaces.


Bruddah, I did a test this morning at a store I wont name.  I walked in without my mask and gave my local grocery store manager a "V" sign for victory and he told me I need mask.  He had a plastic bag full of mask and tried to give me one.  I told him I had all my "V's" and you have nothing to be worried about plus, the CDC and the Prez said I dont need a mask anymore.  He got so pissed off.  He said, "you can;t shop this store without mask according to state law."  No joke.  I said, "it's a law?"  He then goes, "you can shop somewhere else, I dont have time for this."  Guess what I did Bruddah?


----------



## watfly (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> CDC has torched its public trust.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392818997465423875


The CDC and our political leadership's lack of candor and arbitrary restrictions during this pandemic is going to make it very difficult to respond to the next pandemic.  They "cried wolf" when it was really just a big dog.  CDC and other health organizations have lost the public trust of many.

The fact that kids still have to wear masks is completely irresponsible.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sounds like the story was run before it had anything to back it up.


The story of SARS has been run many times before without PCR testing and thus case hysteria.  You cowards have been avoiding the facts from the start.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

crush said:


> Bruddah, I did a test this morning at a store I wont name.  I walked in without my mask and gave my local grocery store manager a "V" sign for victory and he told me I need mask.  He had a plastic bag full of mask and tried to give me one.  I told him I had all my "V's" and you have nothing to be worried about plus, the CDC and the Prez said I dont need a mask anymore.  He got so pissed off.  He said, "you can;t shop this store without mask according to state law."  No joke.  I said, "it's a law?"  He then goes, "you can shop somewhere else, I dont have time for this."  Guess what I did Bruddah?


You prayed for him.  In Jesus name.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

crush said:


> Bruddah, I did a test this morning at a store I wont name.  I walked in without my mask and gave my local grocery store manager a "V" sign for victory and he told me I need mask.  He had a plastic bag full of mask and tried to give me one.  I told him I had all my "V's" and you have nothing to be worried about plus, the CDC and the Prez said I dont need a mask anymore.  He got so pissed off.  He said, "you can;t shop this store without mask according to state law."  No joke.  I said, "it's a law?"  He then goes, "you can shop somewhere else, I dont have time for this."  Guess what I did Bruddah?


The new policy seemed to catch many retailers and their workers by surprise. Macy’s, Target and the Gap said they were still reviewing the new guidance, while Home Depot said it had no plans to change its current rules requiring customers and workers to wear masks in its stores.  

The United Food and Commercial Workers union, representing thousands of grocery store workers, criticized the C.D.C. for failing to consider how the new policy would impact workers who have to deal with customers who are not vaccinated. “Millions of Americans are doing the right thing and getting vaccinated, but essential workers are still forced to play mask police for shoppers who are unvaccinated and refuse to follow local Covid safety measures,” the union’s president, Marc Perrone, said in a statement. “Are they now supposed to become the vaccination police?”

The Retail Leaders Industry Association, a trade group, said that the policy complicated matters in states that still have mask mandates in place that retailers must follow. “These conflicting positions put retailers and their employees in incredibly difficult situations,” the group said in a statement.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Funny how you love certain news sources and certain experts when they agree with you......
> 
> Yeah I acknowledged the limitations.  Still it's interesting for what it's worth in its limited value.  *they could have said it's just inconclusive*. and acknowledged the blank sheet of paper but they didn't.


  Mic drop.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> You prayed for him.  In Jesus name.


I should have and I just did for him.  I also asked for forgiveness for my antagonizing him.  I need to do better.  I really can;t shop take it anymore with the mask lie.  I will stay home until the pros fix this.  I think something might go down today or this weekend that will help most of us get along. We've all been played.  Thank you for that slap from a good brother


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

crush said:


> I should have and I just did for him.  I also asked for forgiveness for my antagonizing him.  I need to do better.  I really can;t shop take it anymore with the mask lie.  I will stay home until the pros fix this.  I think something might go down today or this weekend that will help most of us get along. We've all been played.  Thank you for that slap from a good brother


Amen.  But I was just being sarcastic.  I love God's sarcasm in Job.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

The CDC has been _super _slow when it comes to updating their guidelines. What more time do states and companies who refuse to jump on board need, then? If they're not going to be listening to the CDC, who are they going to be listening to? What left is there to review?

It's time to embrace not only science, but freedom.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The United Food and Commercial Workers union, representing thousands of grocery store workers, criticized the C.D.C. for failing to consider how the new policy would impact workers who have to deal with customers who are not vaccinated.* “Millions of Americans are doing the right thing* *and getting vaccinated*, *but essential workers are still forced to play mask police for shoppers who are unvaccinated and refuse to follow local Covid safety measures,” the union’s president, Marc Perrone, said in a statement.* “Are they now supposed to become the vaccination police?”
> 
> The Retail Leaders Industry Association, a trade group, said that the policy complicated matters in states that still have mask mandates in place that retailers must follow. “These conflicting positions put retailers and their employees in incredibly difficult situations,” the group said in a statement.


Thanks Mark for the kind thoughs on the unV people.  What a joke!!!  This is what I just went through.  He's says the right thing to do is to put Dr F and BG's crap in my body.  The manager just played police with me and it went bad for both of us.  I'm a nice guy too,  Just wait.  What a divisive bull dung we all have to deal with now.  WHO is telling us the truth?  I will lay low until June 15th, that's when CA will be in the clear.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The CDC has been _super _slow when it comes to updating their guidelines. What more time do states and companies who refuse to jump on board need, then? If they're not going to be listening to the CDC, who are they going to be listening to? What left is there to review?
> 
> It's time to embrace not only science, but freedom.


Running scared is not fun.  Busted!!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

This whole ordeal has been an indictment of our Education system.  That our immune systems have been relegated to AYSO in the minds of the sheeple is MUCH BIGGER PROBLEM than Corona.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

crush said:


> Thanks Mark for the kind thoughs on the unV people.  What a joke!!!  This is what I just went through.  He's says the right thing to do is to put Dr F and BG's crap in my body.  The manager just played police with me and it went bad for both of us.  I'm a nice guy too,  Just wait.  What a divisive bull dung we all have to deal with now.  WHO is telling us the truth?  I will lay low until June 15th, that's when CA will be in the clear.


I'm gonna make some T-shirts that say Pathogenically Primed.  Sell them at the VAX site.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Some folks are going to have to answer to some pissed off people who lost everything and are still here on the planet looking for justice.  I hear Dr. F might have some more questions to answer.  Dude is 80+ years old and is almost done.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Religion & Politics for $800 please.  If a picture is worth a thousand words then this one should let everyone know WHO is for war and who is not. Hello, WTFU USD sheep. The lion is here to roar!!!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 14, 2021)

N00B said:


> Breakthrough case or false positive?  Time will tell... I assume PCR tests would find the presence of the virus in the nasal passages of immune individuals from time to time.  Just most of us don’t get tested on a regular basis when healthy.


Looks like opinions on this are falling the same way they have throughout. There's one side that says, "Hey, this thing might be happening and if it is, it's bad so we need restrictions." The other side says, "Where's the proof?" to which the answer is, "We can't contact trace so we don't know for sure." 

The funny thing about this case is that we don't even know if it's "bad". He's showing no symptoms and we don't have any idea about his risk of transmission of a vaccinated person who tested positive and is showing no symptoms. We do know cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to drop despite having less than 38% of the population fully vaccinated - even fewer reaching the magic "two weeks after the 2nd shot" - and things opening up more and more.


----------



## dad4 (May 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Looks like opinions on this are falling the same way they have throughout. There's one side that says, "Hey, this thing might be happening and if it is, it's bad so we need restrictions." The other side says, "Where's the proof?" to which the answer is, "We can't contact trace so we don't know for sure."
> 
> The funny thing about this case is that we don't even know if it's "bad". He's showing no symptoms and we don't have any idea about his risk of transmission of a vaccinated person who tested positive and is showing no symptoms. We do know cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to drop despite having less than 38% of the population fully vaccinated - even fewer reaching the magic "two weeks after the 2nd shot" - and things opening up more and more.


You left out “why is anyone surprised?”

The vaccine promised to help 95% of us avoid moderate to severe symptoms.  They never promised us the vaccine would mean 100% of us would be non-detect after exposure.

The vaccine seems to be doing exactly what was expected.  It is helping a 65 year old man avoid a hospital stay.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Take a minute and listen to the Lion........


----------



## Glitterhater (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You left out “why is anyone surprised?”
> 
> The vaccine promised to help 95% of us avoid moderate to severe symptoms.  They never promised us the vaccine would mean 100% of us would be non-detect after exposure.
> 
> The vaccine seems to be doing exactly what was expected.  It is helping a 65 year old man avoid a hospital stay.


Exactly. Confused as to why this is even a discussion point on here. Oh wait- no I'm not.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You left out “why is anyone surprised?”
> 
> The vaccine promised to help 95% of us avoid moderate to severe symptoms.  *They never promised us the vaccine would mean 100% *of us would be non-detect after exposure.
> 
> The vaccine seems to be doing exactly what was expected.  It is helping a 65 year old man avoid a hospital stay.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 14, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Exactly. Confused as to why this is even a discussion point on here. Oh wait- no I'm not.


Ha! C'mon, this is the "Bad News Thread" on "Off Topic 2" - not even "Off Topic", it's Off Topic 2. No confusion is necessary


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You left out “why is anyone surprised?”
> 
> The vaccine promised to help 95% of us avoid moderate to severe symptoms.  They never promised us the vaccine would mean 100% of us would be non-detect after exposure.
> 
> *The vaccine seems to be doing exactly what was expected.  It is helping a 65 year old man avoid a hospital stay.*


All the while steal a kids last 15 months of their preciously prime time life.  If your 65, time is almost up.  Let others shine for goodness sakes.  This is so selfish    Ruin my Pal's Thai food place so Mr Normal 65 year old can stay away from the hospital if he get's the flu a or b.  Thanks for being honest Dadespola4.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ha! C'mon, this is the "Bad News Thread" on "Off Topic 2" - not even "Off Topic", it's Off Topic 2. No confusion is necessary


I mean- I almost think we're ready for an Off Topic 3 at this rate!


----------



## dad4 (May 14, 2021)

crush said:


> All the while steal a kids last 15 months of their preciously prime time life.  If your 65, time is almost up.  Let others shine for goodness sakes.  This is so selfish    Ruin my Pal's Thai food place so Mr Normal 65 year old can stay away from the hospital if he get's the flu a or b.  Thanks for being honest Dadespola4.


Bill Maher was one of the ones who took the left to task for closing so many of the kid spaces.

What are you mocking him for?  I’d think you’d thank him for sticking up for the kids and wish him good health.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The vaccine promised to help 95% of us avoid moderate to severe symptoms.  They never promised us the vaccine would mean 100% of us would be non-detect after exposure.


That being the case, how does this fit into the R>1 in order to open indoor activities/fully open the economy argument?


----------



## espola (May 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Looks like opinions on this are falling the same way they have throughout. There's one side that says, "Hey, this thing might be happening and if it is, it's bad so we need restrictions." The other side says, "Where's the proof?" to which the answer is, "We can't contact trace so we don't know for sure."
> 
> The funny thing about this case is that we don't even know if it's "bad". He's showing no symptoms and we don't have any idea about his risk of transmission of a vaccinated person who tested positive and is showing no symptoms. We do know cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to drop despite having less than 38% of the population fully vaccinated - even fewer reaching the magic "two weeks after the 2nd shot" - and things opening up more and more.


I have been following this for a while.  Protocols established by the craft unions and/or production companies require regular testing of all on-set persons paid for by the production company, PPE supplied on-set, and isolation of any who test positive.  In the Mahr case, since most of the show is him talking and the shows are produced once a week, they don't have much of a choice except to shut down until he tests clean.


----------



## dad4 (May 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> That being the case, how does this fit into the R>1 in order to open indoor activities/fully open the economy argument?


Separate questions with similar answers, I think.

The first was asking whether vaccines can reduce severity of illness.  That was the big fat yes from clinical trials, and we knew it late last year.

The second is asking whether vaccines reduce transmission. (R<1)  That also appears to be a strong yes, but we didn’t find it out until later, when we started vaccinating large numbers of people.  Israel first, then UK and US.  All three are showing transmission rates fall dramatically as vaccination rates rise.


----------



## N00B (May 14, 2021)

In the world of sports...









						What to Know About the Yankees’ Coronavirus Outbreak (Published 2021)
					

Gleyber Torres is the eighth person (and the first player) from the Yankees organization to test positive for the coronavirus this week. All had been vaccinated.




					www.google.com


----------



## Grace T. (May 14, 2021)

Johnson and Johnson vaccine.  It looks like PCR tests will present if the virus enters the nasal cavity.  The question then becomes if the person is asymptomatic: a) did the virus invade the rest of the system, and b) is that person contagious.  The research so far on asymptomatics from natural infection has been mixed.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392963339173699594


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 14, 2021)

espola said:


> I have been following this for a while.  Protocols established by the craft unions and/or production companies require regular testing of all on-set persons paid for by the production company, PPE supplied on-set, and isolation of any who test positive.  In the Mahr case, since most of the show is him talking and the shows are produced once a week, they don't have much of a choice except to shut down until he tests clean.


I wasn't really thinking about this in terms of shutting down the show. It was more about the significance of a positive test, after vaccination where no symptoms are shown. The point is, we don't know the significance in terms of transmission to others. Can they transmit at all, and more importantly, are those that aren't vaccinated in danger of getting a "bad" case from someone such as Maher.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 14, 2021)

N00B said:


> In the world of sports...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


One guy was symptomatic, right? Makes it tricky to draw any type of reasonable conclusion. Oh, and I am not arguing that vaccines aren't working. As @dad4 states, there's a lot of evidence to suggest they are doing exactly what we hoped they would do.


----------



## watfly (May 14, 2021)

Honest question, is there a difference between testing positive for Covid and having Covid?  What does testing positive mean when your already vaccinated?  I don't know that we have those answers.

Actually we know very little about the virus other than the odds of getting it outdoors are slim to none, it's virtually harmless to children and the aged and certain co-morbidities make you more vulnerable to severe symptoms and/or death.  I'm going to guess that we will eventually determine that there is also some genetic factors that make certain, seemingly healthy, people more susceptible to dire consequences.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 14, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> I mean- I almost think we're ready for an Off Topic 3 at this rate!


The funny thing is that Dominic moved this discussion here so he wouldn't have to monitor it closely. With the exception of one misanthropic, multi-aliased troll who occasionally goes off his meds, the discussions here are more civil than on the regular board. That wasn't the case originally.


----------



## espola (May 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I wasn't really thinking about this in terms of shutting down the show. It was more about the significance of a positive test, after vaccination where no symptoms are shown. The point is, we don't know the significance in terms of transmission to others. Can they transmit at all, and more importantly, are those that aren't vaccinated in danger of getting a "bad" case from someone such as Maher.


The test looks for the virus, not the symptoms.  Even before we had the vaccines, it was noted that people could be infected without showing by symptoms.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The funny thing is that Dominic moved this discussion here so he wouldn't have to monitor it closely. With the exception of one misanthropic, multi-aliased troll who occasionally goes off his meds, the discussions here are more civil than on the regular board. That wasn't the case originally.


You are a far better person than I if you think it's just 1! 

I actually enjoy reading the heated debates, as several come correct with knowledge, facts, and well thought out ideas, (on both "sides".) I can't do the conspiracy theorists, however. Or the baseless claims that make you wonder how that person had enough brain cells to tie their shoes that morning.


----------



## Grace T. (May 14, 2021)

espola said:


> The test looks for the virus, not the symptoms.  Even before we had the vaccines, it was noted that people could be infected without showing by symptoms.


Well this raises the possibility that they might not even be infected....there may be 2 types of asymptomatics: 1) with the virus in their nasal cavity but the body's immune system (whether by vaccine or naturally) deals with it at the point of entry so it doesn't enter the rest of the system, and 2) those where the virus has gone beyond the point of entry and is replicating in other cells but remain asymptomatic.  We don't know how contagious either is right now.  But it may serve to explain the split in the research over how contagious asympatomics really are.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 14, 2021)

Senator Burr asked Fauci, Peter Marks from the FDA, and 
@CDCDirector what percentage of their own employees are vaccinated. Fauci probably a bit more than half, around 60%. Marks said about the same. Walensky dodged the question.


----------



## watfly (May 14, 2021)

watfly said:


> Honest question, is there a difference between testing positive for Covid and having Covid?  What does testing positive mean when your already vaccinated?  I don't know that we have those answers.
> 
> Actually we know very little about the virus other than the odds of getting it outdoors are slim to none, it's virtually harmless to children and the aged and certain co-morbidities make you more vulnerable to severe symptoms and/or death.  I'm going to guess that we will eventually determine that there is also some genetic factors that make certain, seemingly healthy, people more susceptible to dire consequences.


In regards to policy making, I personally think its important to make decisions based upon what we do know and to be very, very careful about making decisions on what we think may be true but don't have any evidence to support it.  Unfortunately, our policy makers are often risk adverse (aka blame avoidance vs. actual leadership) and myopic.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The funny thing is that Dominic moved this discussion here so he wouldn't have to monitor it closely. With the exception of one misanthropic, multi-aliased troll who occasionally goes off his meds, the discussions here are more civil than on the regular board. That wasn't the case originally.


So you mean to tell me if you isolate the problematic group and let the masses proceed, things can be better?


----------



## N00B (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well this raises the possibility that they might not even be infected....there may be 2 types of asymptomatics: 1) with the virus in their nasal cavity but the body's immune system (whether by vaccine or naturally) deals with it at the point of entry so it doesn't enter the rest of the system, and 2) those where the virus has gone beyond the point of entry and is replicating in other cells but remain asymptomatic.  We don't know how contagious either is right now.  But it may serve to explain the split in the research over how contagious asympatomics really are.


If asymptomatic (vaccinated) not pre-symptomatic can spread the virus, we may have just created policy based on CDC guidance on masks for vaccinated individuals and no need to quarantine after exposure of vaccinated persons that will perpetuate the spread and endemic nature of this virus.


----------



## Grace T. (May 14, 2021)

N00B said:


> If asymptomatic (vaccinated) not pre-symptomatic can spread the virus, we may have just created policy based on CDC guidance on masks for vaccinated individuals and no need to quarantine after exposure of vaccinated persons that will perpetuate the spread and endemic nature of this virus.


It was always going to be endemic (at least for the next 3-5 years).  The real question is deaths/severe illness.  We're just going to have to get used to it floating around.  We can thanks the PRC for that.


----------



## espola (May 14, 2021)

watfly said:


> Honest question, is there a difference between testing positive for Covid and having Covid?  What does testing positive mean when your already vaccinated?  I don't know that we have those answers.
> 
> Actually we know very little about the virus other than the odds of getting it outdoors are slim to none, it's virtually harmless to children and the aged and certain co-morbidities make you more vulnerable to severe symptoms and/or death.  I'm going to guess that we will eventually determine that there is also some genetic factors that make certain, seemingly healthy, people more susceptible to dire consequences.


The vaccine does not cloak you in an invisible protective shield.  Virus can still get in, but the immune system of a vaccinated person has been pretuned to have a stronger defense against the virus.


----------



## espola (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well this raises the possibility that they might not even be infected....there may be 2 types of asymptomatics: 1) with the virus in their nasal cavity but the body's immune system (whether by vaccine or naturally) deals with it at the point of entry so it doesn't enter the rest of the system, and 2) those where the virus has gone beyond the point of entry and is replicating in other cells but remain asymptomatic.  We don't know how contagious either is right now.  But it may serve to explain the split in the research over how contagious asympatomics really are.


For a novel definition of "infected", perhaps.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

*Jerry West upset with Jeanie Buss' 'offensive' list of important Lakers*
*West spent entire playing career with Lakers and helped reshape organization from front office*

Sports take that pisses me off today.  Jeanie is so wrong and I know her dad would have JW in the top 5.  Sorry LeBron, no way you get in my top 5, now way


----------



## watfly (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well this raises the possibility that they might not even be infected....there may be 2 types of asymptomatics: 1) with the virus in their nasal cavity but the body's immune system (whether by vaccine or naturally) deals with it at the point of entry so it doesn't enter the rest of the system, and 2) those where the virus has gone beyond the point of entry and is replicating in other cells but remain asymptomatic.  We don't know how contagious either is right now.  But it may serve to explain the split in the research over how contagious asympatomics really are.


That's what I was thinking with my question... 1) is testing positive for Covid and 2) is having Covid and  3) would be being impacted by Covid.  I would guess that all 3 have different levels of transmissibility.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 14, 2021)

espola said:


> The test looks for the virus, not the symptoms.  Even before we had the vaccines, it was noted that people could be infected without showing by symptoms.


Again, this goes back to my point which I don't suppose I made very well, when does a positive test matter? For cases that have "broken through", how often does anything "happen" (symptoms beyond a common cold or the passing of the virus to someone who eventually develops serious symptoms)? It's incomplete information as you note - some cases are asymptomatic and some lead to death.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 14, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> You are a far better person than I if you think it's just 1!
> 
> I actually enjoy reading the heated debates, as several come correct with knowledge, facts, and well thought out ideas, (on both "sides".) I can't do the conspiracy theorists, however. Or the baseless claims that make you wonder how that person had enough brain cells to tie their shoes that morning.


Heated debates are good. What would this board be without @dad4 and @Grace T. engaged in way more of the English language than I ever learned? We need to engage - even with those we strongly disagree with or those who have ideas we think are outrageous. I am speaking of broadly stated aspersions applied to groups of people.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Heated debates are good. What would this board be without @dad4 and @Grace T. engaged in way more of the English language than I ever learned? We need to engage - even with those we strongly disagree with or those who have ideas we think are outrageous. I am speaking of broadly stated aspersions applied to groups of people.


Dude, these people are nuts and you know it.  I've been dealing with them before I was born.  I'm no troll, trust me


----------



## watfly (May 14, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Heated debates are good. What would this board be without @dad4 and @Grace T. engaged in way more of the English language than I ever learned? We need to engage - even with those we strongly disagree with or those who have ideas we think are outrageous. I am speaking of broadly stated aspersions applied to groups of people.


Dad4 and GraceT need to go on Jeopardy.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

watfly said:


> Dad4 and GraceT need to go on Jeopardy.


Dad4:  I'll take lies and cheats for $600 Espola

Q.  Is the audit in AZ finished


----------



## dad4 (May 14, 2021)

crush said:


> Dad4:  I'll take lies and cheats for $600 Espola
> 
> Q.  Is the audit in AZ finished


I suspect you and I have different opinions about the nature of the lies and cheats in the AZ recount.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I suspect you and I have different opinions about the nature of the lies and cheats in the AZ recount.


You know what, let's ask Hound.  Hound, wth is going on with recount?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You left out “why is anyone surprised?”
> 
> The vaccine promised to help 95% of us avoid moderate to severe symptoms.  They never promised us the vaccine would mean 100% of us would be non-detect after exposure.
> 
> The vaccine seems to be doing exactly what was expected.  It is helping a 65 year old man avoid a hospital stay.


You have no evidence whatsoever for what you stated above.  The vaccine is hitch hiking on the bodies immune system through a needle and not entering the body through any of the respiratory passages.  Seems too simple to have to point out the obvious for you smart people.  Columbo and I started happy hour 10 min. ago.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

DoD guidance released today.

Effective immediately all MCCS facilities will be obeying this guidance.


Vaccinated patrons are no longer required to wear a mask – we are not allowed to ask if they are vaccinated
Non-vaccinated people should continue to wear masks
Employees can continue to wear masks as long as they wish
Please do not discuss vaccination status with fellow employees or patrons
New employees – we do not need to verify vaccination status
Remove all signage requiring face coverings/masks from doors
Keep sneeze guards in place
Continue sanitizing procedures
Continue maintaining 6 feet distance whenever possible


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The vaccine seems to be doing exactly what was expected.  It is helping a 65 year old man avoid a hospital stay.


The 65 year old is being helped by Prednisone.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

$1,000,000 give away for those who are easy to persuade is why Ohio is giving away $5,000,000 in 5 weeks.  Plus, 4 free college passes and free fries for third place.  He also said the vaccine, "will pretty much 100% protect you."  Listen for yourslef


----------



## Grace T. (May 14, 2021)

So everything is flipping now.  The antimaskers were labelled Karens for complaining about mask mandates and now are claiming to be pro science.  The maskers are now being labelled antiscience and are being the ranters.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1393304549675393033


----------



## espola (May 14, 2021)

watfly said:


> Dad4 and GraceT need to go on Jeopardy.


As a team?


----------



## dad4 (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So everything is flipping now.  The antimaskers were labelled Karens for complaining about mask mandates and now are claiming to be pro science.  The maskers are now being labelled antiscience and are being the ranters.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1393304549675393033


The two sides insulting each other as anti-science is nothing new.


----------



## Grace T. (May 14, 2021)

espola said:


> As a team?


He'd be the perfect pub trivia partner.  We'd have everything from medieval French poetry to nuclear fission covered.  The killer would be popular culture and sports as my knowledge of both ends at roughly 2000. We'd need a third teammate to make a killing


----------



## Grace T. (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The two sides insulting each other as anti-science is nothing new.


Agree but the Karen is now on the other foot so to speak.


----------



## Grace T. (May 14, 2021)

Walmart just announced its ending its mask mandate nationwide except in states where mask mandates required by law.  Pandemic officially over.

Gov. Murphy by the way is citing Fauci's interview the day before as grounds for rejecting the CDC guidance.  It puts Fauci in an extremely uncomfortable position now.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Walmart just announced its ending its mask mandate nationwide except in states where mask mandates required by law.  Pandemic officially over.
> 
> Gov. Murphy by the way is citing Fauci's interview the day before as grounds for rejecting the CDC guidance.  It puts Fauci in an extremely uncomfortable position now.


Flipper just jumped out of the water......oh oh, that's not good.

Walmart also said it would *give $75 to every employee that gets vaccinated*, following companies like *Kroger Co., German grocer Lidl and Instacart Inc. *that have *given cash for proof of shots.* Other businesses have given paid time off to get vaccinated.

Cash for cars and now cash if you get your shots.  Talk about pay to play.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

espola said:


> The test looks for the virus, not the symptoms.


The PCR looks for genetic sequences not a virus.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The two sides insulting each other as anti-science is nothing new.


Except one side was able to employ public policy at gun point.


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

You Can't Unsee This: DeBlasio Moans While Eating Burger to Bribe New Yorkers to Get Vaccine
					

New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio has a bizarre way of coaxing New Yorkers to get vaccinated.




					rumble.com


----------



## crush (May 14, 2021)

Come get your fries.  Wow or wow.  Dadespola4 kind of life style I guess.  To each his own.  You can't make this stuff up.....


----------



## dad4 (May 14, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> View attachment 10775


----------



## dad4 (May 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Walmart just announced its ending its mask mandate nationwide except in states where mask mandates required by law.  Pandemic officially over.
> 
> Gov. Murphy by the way is citing Fauci's interview the day before as grounds for rejecting the CDC guidance.  It puts Fauci in an extremely uncomfortable position now.


Pandemic officially over.  Except for the 700 people dying per day.  Pandemic not quite over for them.

This is about the thousandth time someone, somewhere, got over excited and jumped the gun on relaxing rules.  The masks and the vaccines are the only non-painful ways to reduce cases.  Why skip masks when kids are still on zoom and office workers are still at home?


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why skip masks when kids are still on zoom and office workers are still at home?


Who is saying you can’t wear one?  

Many kids have been in school since Sept. (mainly those with less influential Teachers Unions)





__





						Impending Zoom: How A Teachers Union Influenced The CDC
					





					fee.org


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Pandemic officially over.  Except for the 700 people dying per day.  Pandemic not quite over for them.


How many of them had the vaccine or didn't take the opportunity to get it? That number that haven't had the opportunity to get the vaccine has to be getting pretty small right now.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Pandemic officially over.  Except for the 700 people dying per day.  Pandemic not quite over for them.
> 
> This is about the thousandth time someone, somewhere, got over excited and jumped the gun on relaxing rules.  The masks and the vaccines are the only non-painful ways to reduce cases.  Why skip masks when kids are still on zoom and office workers are still at home?


What are the 700 per day dying of?


----------



## dad4 (May 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Who is saying you can’t wear one?
> 
> Many kids have been in school since Sept. (mainly those with less influential Teachers Unions)
> 
> ...


Not the point.  I can wear one, but the real transmission problem is from unmasked, unvaccinated people.  

What happened to all your concern for people who are out of work?  30,000 cases a day is still a drag on the economy.  Closing offices is also a drag on the economy.   Lack of child care is a drag on the economy.  Wearing masks can help us solve all three of those problems.

Or does unemployment matter only when we are reopening, but not when we are deciding on masks?


----------



## Grace T. (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Pandemic officially over.  Except for the 700 people dying per day.  Pandemic not quite over for them.
> 
> This is about the thousandth time someone, somewhere, got over excited and jumped the gun on relaxing rules.  The masks and the vaccines are the only non-painful ways to reduce cases.  Why skip masks when kids are still on zoom and office workers are still at home?


It’s never going to be zero...at least not for 2-3 more years.  People die of flu adenovirus colds and enterovirus too. I almost died once from a nasty bacterial resistant sinus infection off of a common cold.  So what’s your official number for when it’s no longer a problem?


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not the point.  I can wear one, but the real transmission problem is from unmasked, unvaccinated people.
> 
> What happened to all your concern for people who are out of work?  30,000 cases a day is still a drag on the economy.  Closing offices is also a drag on the economy.   Lack of child care is a drag on the economy.  Wearing masks can help us solve all three of those problems.
> 
> Or does unemployment matter only when we are reopening, but not when we are deciding on masks?


They are only a risk to themselves not the vaccinated, so help me understand the issue?

Yah…we need to open the economy, stop printing money and incentivizing people to stay home.  If you hated your minimum wage job that you had pre-pandemic and you’ve been on stimulus for the past 13 months or so, shame on you if you didn’t do anything to learn a new skill during that time. I know many who “reinvented” themselves via online courses.

I’m sure we can all learn a lot from FL and Texas at this point.

Curious that LA followed the CDC to a T for so many months and Now that the CDC revised its guidance, LA is still trying to enforce a mask mandate.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not the point.  I can wear one, but the real transmission problem is from unmasked, unvaccinated people.
> 
> What happened to all your concern for people who are out of work?  30,000 cases a day is still a drag on the economy.  Closing offices is also a drag on the economy.   Lack of child care is a drag on the economy.  Wearing masks can help us solve all three of those problems.
> 
> Or does unemployment matter only when we are reopening, but not when we are deciding on masks?


Yawn


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not the point.  I can wear one, but the real transmission problem is from unmasked, unvaccinated people.
> 
> What happened to all your concern for people who are out of work?  30,000 cases a day is still a drag on the economy.  Closing offices is also a drag on the economy.   Lack of child care is a drag on the economy.  Wearing masks can help us solve all three of those problems.
> 
> Or does unemployment matter only when we are reopening, but not when we are deciding on masks?




Now even the _New York Times_ is piling on the CDC.

About a month ago, almost as if part of a coordinated effort, all of a sudden it became fashionable to ridicule outdoor masking, and to act as if the pointlessness of wearing a mask outdoors were some recent discovery. (Naturally, you and I have been saying this from the beginning, though indoor masking also appears to show few results.)

The _Times_ is out with an article showing that the CDC has grossly exaggerated the numbers when it comes to outdoor transmission. The CDC has been saying that less than 10 percent occurs outdoors, but the _Times_ says this is like saying that sharks kill fewer than 20,000 swimmers per year, when the exact figure is about 150.

In fact, even though the unscientific crazies glare at you when you walk by them unmasked, the _Times_ reports that "there is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table."

Before you start thinking maybe the press is becoming reasonable (I know you weren't actually thinking that), Raw Story is out with an article called, "The data is in -- and it's damning: States led by GOP governors had higher COVID-19 death rates in 2020."

In an article like that, I bet you'd expect them to compare the COVID numbers from one group of states with the numbers from another group, for the calendar year 2020.

Nope.

They compared the numbers for a three-month window, which (by what I'm sure was pure coincidence) happened to be a period in which blue states appeared to be doing somewhat better.

In the graph below, the shaded region is the period Raw Story covered for its article on "death rates in 2020":










Incidentally, for those who despair that things will never change, that masks will be permanent, and all the rest, I repeat: I'm in the Florida panhandle right now. No-masks are the norm. Nobody is "social distancing." The whole state isn't like this yet, but more people than not are maskless in every establishment I enter. They've simply moved on, without the catastrophic consequences the hysterics assured us we should expect.


----------



## crush (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not the point.  I can wear one, but the *real transmission problem is from unmasked, unvaccinated people. *


You just disqualified yourself for any chance on Jeopardy.  Dumb & Dumber for $800 Dadespola4.


----------



## watfly (May 15, 2021)

Just an observation.  There is a Kaiser vaccine clinic by my son's club field.  It has been dead for weeks.  This morning it was slammed, full parking lot and long line.  Weird that all of a sudden vaccine demand has spiked, I wonder why?


----------



## watfly (May 15, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> DoD guidance released today.
> 
> Effective immediately all MCCS facilities will be obeying this guidance.
> 
> ...


Wow, common sense.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not the point.  I can wear one, but the real transmission problem is from unmasked, unvaccinated people.
> 
> What happened to all your concern for people who are out of work?  30,000 cases a day is still a drag on the economy.  Closing offices is also a drag on the economy.   Lack of child care is a drag on the economy.  Wearing masks can help us solve all three of those problems.
> 
> Or does unemployment matter only when we are reopening, but not when we are deciding on masks?


What? You are kidding, right? I'm hearing stories everywhere about how things are opening up again - NYC, etc. - where things were dead a couple of weeks ago. The economy is only good in your "work from home" bubble. Printing money only kicks the can down the road. At some point, widgets need to be produced.  Also, cases don't matter - severe cases matter. Hospitalizations with COVID are the lowest since April, 2020. Oh yeah, and how did all those dire predictions go about FL and TX when they opened up?


----------



## Grace T. (May 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> Just an observation.  There is a Kaiser vaccine clinic by my son's club field.  It has been dead for weeks.  This morning it was slammed, full parking lot and long line.  Weird that all of a sudden vaccine demand has spiked, I wonder why?


First weekend of 12-16 year olds.  There was a similar bump at 16-18 the first weekend. For some also solves the child care issue (bring family along...if there’s a little one the 12-16 year old can watch them while you sign paperwork). At our private school clinic I’m hearing only 1/3 of eligible families showed.  There’s some pressure too for folks sending their kids to summer camp to get it done so kids can be fully Vaxxed before they go.


----------



## Grace T. (May 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> First weekend of 12-16 year olds.  There was a similar bump at 16-18 the first weekend. For some also solves the child care issue (bring family along...if there’s a little one the 12-16 year old can watch them while you sign paperwork). At our private school clinic I’m hearing only 1/3 of eligible families showed.  There’s some pressure too for folks sending their kids to summer camp to get it done so kids can be fully Vaxxed before they go.


Extending to kids may also convince some Pfizer is safe plus the Pfizer causes dementia thing that’s been circulated has been pretty thoroughly debunked (plus if it did covid causes it too). The no mask thing if vaccinated might have also persuaded some low info people to go


----------



## dad4 (May 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> What? You are kidding, right? I'm hearing stories everywhere about how things are opening up again - NYC, etc. - where things were dead a couple of weeks ago. The economy is only good in your "work from home" bubble. Printing money only kicks the can down the road. At some point, widgets need to be produced.  Also, cases don't matter - severe cases matter. Hospitalizations with COVID are the lowest since April, 2020. Oh yeah, and how did all those dire predictions go about FL and TX when they opened up?


Not kidding at all.  Masks are the only restriction which doesn’t harm the economy.  They should be the absolute last restriction to go.   And defintely keep them until cases are low enough that child care worries are not keeping people out of the workforce.

Hound and Osterholm can speak to their own dire predictions.

My prediction was that progress in CA would stall if they opened dining.  I also predicted a small foothill as b.1.1.7 spread over the country.  I count those as two for two.


----------



## Grace T. (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not kidding at all.  Masks are the only restriction which doesn’t harm the economy.  They should be the absolute last restriction to go.   And defintely keep them until cases are low enough that child care worries are not keeping people out of the workforce.
> 
> Hound and Osterholm can speak to their own dire predictions.
> 
> My prediction was that progress in CA would stall if they opened dining.  I also predicted a small foothill as b.1.1.7 spread over the country.  I count those as two for two.


California hasn’t stalled particularly in the south. It continued downward trajectory. I concurred with you on the foothill (I thought it would be bigger than it actually was and I think you did too). You also missed the location: you implied fl & tx not mi and ny. Incidentally one place of stubbornness now (despite their mask mandate and flexibly closing indoor dining as cases in counties rise) is or/wa which were supposed to be the best among us.


----------



## dad4 (May 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> California hasn’t stalled particularly in the south. It continued downward trajectory. I concurred with you on the foothill (I thought it would be bigger than it actually was and I think you did too). You also missed the location: you implied fl & tx not mi and ny. Incidentally one place of stubbornness now (despite their mask mandate and flexibly closing indoor dining as cases in counties rise) is or/wa which were supposed to be the best among us.


The big thing I missed on the foothill was the degree of rule relaxation in the north.  

The actual b.1.1.7 effect was much smaller than I expected.


----------



## Grace T. (May 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The big thing I missed on the foothill was the degree of rule relaxation in the north.
> 
> The actual b.1.1.7 effect was much smaller than I expected.


it wasn’t just the rules. It was that stricter states had more dry brush to burn but otherwise it was the same with me.


----------



## Grace T. (May 15, 2021)

Ruh roh.









						Research suggests Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine reprograms innate immune responses
					

Researchers in The Netherlands have warned that Pfizer-BioNTech’s coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine induces complex reprogramming of innate immune responses that should be considered in the development and use of mRNA-based vaccines.




					www.news-medical.net


----------



## watfly (May 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> California hasn’t stalled particularly in the south.


San Diego:
No deaths 4 out of the last 7 deaths
Less than 1 person per day average admitted to ICU the last seven days
3 people per day average hospitalized the last seven days

By all means keep restaurants closed...WTF.

It wasn't a stall anyway, it was more of a minimum baseline.  Water finding the path of least resistance.  Not realistic or possible to get rid of all the cracks.


dad4 said:


> My prediction was that progress in CA would stall if they opened dining.  I also predicted a small foothill as b.1.1.7 spread over the country.  I count those as two for two.


I hear the Tonight Show is looking for a new Carnac the Magnificent.


----------



## espola (May 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ruh roh.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What is it that concerns you?


----------



## Grace T. (May 15, 2021)

espola said:


> What is it that concerns you?


Certain reduced responses may be great for COVID but not so great for other diseases such as fungi.  There's a big unknown they don't know about either the vaccines or COVID here....may be good in most instances, may be bad in some.


----------



## Grace T. (May 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Certain reduced responses may be great for COVID but not so great for other diseases such as fungi.  There's a big unknown they don't know about either the vaccines or COVID here....may be good in most instances, may be bad in some.


In particular, they need to look at this carefully when they get into the 0-10 year old range since those kids are taking up a lot of other vaccines which might be interfered with by this one.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In particular, they need to look at this carefully when they get into the 0-10 year old range since those kids are taking up a lot of other vaccines which might be interfered with by this one.


And their risk from COVID pretty small.


----------



## Grace T. (May 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> And their risk from COVID pretty small.


Yeah for them measles is certainly the greater danger


----------



## espola (May 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Certain reduced responses may be great for COVID but not so great for other diseases such as fungi.  There's a big unknown they don't know about either the vaccines or COVID here....may be good in most instances, may be bad in some.


I see your point.  I have always been concerned about the unknown.


----------



## espola (May 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah for them measles is certainly the greater danger


I sense panic.


----------



## Grace T. (May 16, 2021)

espola said:


> I sense panic.


If I were to have to chose to have my hypothetical 5 year old have covid or measles the person choosing measles would be a panicky idiot yes. See we do agree on some stuff!


----------



## crush (May 16, 2021)

*Sunday Futures with Crush*

I have four Q's for anyone WHO would like to play my game.  True or false so 50% chance of getting Qs right.

Q1.  True or False: ((I need a smart academic on here to help me out with a math question)) (((see meme for graph))).  Kids have a better chance of dying from the GMO "V" then they can from the actual Rona itself?



Q2.  True or False:  Dr. F is a Big Fat Liar

Q3.  True or False:  The Devil Speaks Lie and is the Founder of that language

Q4.  True or False:  Q is the Chief of Police at NSA headquarters ((sits above everyone and knows everything we have texted, emailed or spoken to on da phone)).  If true, thank God Q is on the side of the kids and the truth?


----------



## crush (May 16, 2021)

My pal, who is a Dr., told me this was yesterday in socal, no joke and it made me laugh. 

Super Store Mask Enforcer: Sir, can you please put on your mask-it protects others!

Man ((my Dr. Pal)): Mam, I am a Doctor.  Would you like free medical advice? 

Super Store Mask Enforcer: Sure

Man ((Dr)): Quit watching the news on tv, quit following the sheep, quit following all the propaganda, and for God's sakes, take off that damn mask & start living life

I spoke to the manager of the grocery store from the other day and told him I was sorry for not wanting to wear my mask and giving him a hard time.  He also said sorry for telling me to go somewhere else is to buy my grub.  He actually started to tear up because he did not sign up to be the health and mask enforcer when he joined the union 20 some years ago.  He also has to deal with his crew and make sure their safe.  He started to choke up when he said he's super afraid of having to be the guy who ask if you got the V or not and how does he know for sure.


----------



## espola (May 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If I were to have to chose to have my hypothetical 5 year old have covid or measles the person choosing measles would be a panicky idiot yes. See we do agree on some stuff!


From the article and associated comments:

medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information. 

Can someone summarize this study in plain layman's english?


----------



## dad4 (May 16, 2021)

crush said:


> *Sunday Futures with Crush*
> 
> I have four Q's for anyone WHO would like to play my game.  True or false so 50% chance of getting Qs right.
> 
> ...


Might want to check the reliability of your source.

Anyone can create a graph and label it as from CDC.  It looks like that’s what TAJargo did.  If it were backed up by cdc data, he’d post a source link.

11,000 people hospitalized and 4,000 dead from vaccines in 6 months?  That’s one per 20,000.  You’d have someone dead or hospitalized in every medium sized town in the US.   You’d think more of us would have noticed.

Never mind Fauci.  If that chart were even close to true, it would be all over the news.  We had international news stories about a half dozen blood clots on another continent.  You think we had 4,000 deaths right here at home but everyone kept it on the low down?


----------



## Desert Hound (May 16, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> And their risk from COVID pretty small.


Non existent


----------



## crush (May 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Might want to check the reliability of your source.
> 
> Anyone can create a graph and label it as from CDC.  It looks like that’s what TAJargo did.  If it were backed up by cdc data, he’d post a source link.
> 
> ...


Ok, I took it from the internet, where everything is true, right?  Good job.  I was testing you on Q1.  However, please answer the actual Q.  Thanks

Dr. F has told a lie or two, right?


----------



## espola (May 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah for them measles is certainly the greater danger


Since you brought up measles --

Following the link in the medrxiv article to the original article in question, I found this --

_Besides their effects on specific (adaptive) immune memory, certain vaccines such as Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine also induce long-term functional reprogramming of cells of the innate immune system_.


----------



## crush (May 16, 2021)

I found dad riding his bike without a helmet.  This is a cult and I can help anyone WHO wants out.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not kidding at all.  Masks are the only restriction which doesn’t harm the economy.


 stick to stats.  At least there you sound smart.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ruh roh.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Littlle bit of pathogenic priming maybe?  Who knew?  Could it be that the pro-vaxers didn’t know what a vaccine really is?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 16, 2021)

espola said:


> From the article and associated comments:
> 
> medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.
> 
> Can someone summarize this study in plain layman's english?


Sure.  Makes me wonder why clinical practice/health-related behavior, during the pandemic, ignored the peer reviewed literature of the last 20 years regarding respiratory disease.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 16, 2021)

crush said:


> I found dad riding his bike without a helmet.  This is a cult and I can help anyone WHO wants out.
> 
> View attachment 10783


Cute how you attempt to accuse others of that which you are guilty.


----------



## crush (May 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Cute how you attempt to accuse others of that which you are guilty.


----------



## Grace T. (May 16, 2021)

Taiwan, which has been largely virus free, is now over 200 cases a day and is going into lockdown. Panic buying similar to what we say in March last year is taking place. 200 cases is small in comparison to the rest of the world but it waits to be seen if they can do an Australia. Outbreak began among airline crews in quarantine. They are worried because it seems it might be the India variant.


----------



## Grace T. (May 17, 2021)

The data on the India variant around the world ain’t looking so good based on a handful of outbreaks including Taiwan, Singapore and Bolton uk.  Variant very capable of breaking through prior covid and non covid immunity and maybe a higher but still small vaccine breakthrough rate.  Most of the world is in for one last hurrah. In us that would’ve areas with low vaccination rates but deaths should still be on floor due to vaccinations. Size of this final wave in west depends on seasonality. But Asia is in for some butt hurt as is Europe if they don’t get a ramp up of their vaccination. Areas using the Chinese vaccine likely also to be affected.


----------



## crush (May 17, 2021)

I had intense talk with a very good friend this weekend that went sideways.  I've known this guy for 33 years.  Strong Elder in his church too and his family on the outside looks great. All kids went to college ((yay)) and graduated ((yay)) and with honors ((yay)) to boot.  All kids have great jobs ((yay)) and the whole family obeyed and got their shots last week.  He's is so confident ((like a super hero)) and told me I need to lead my family better and go get the shots like his Christian family did and be a good Christian like him.  I took a deep breath and started to ask him some really tough questions that I knew about and it ended with only one Q he wouldn't even answer.  After the first question I asked, he told me not to talk with him anymore until I got my shots and I'm a super bad example to everyone.  I kid you not.  It's so game on now.  I lost fair weather friends three yeas ago in the elite soccer community and now even my fellow brethren from church days is drawing lines in the sand.  I must say today I am shocked how brainwashed this old pal of mine is.  He's worse then before the shots.  Dualism has captured the soul of man


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 17, 2021)

crush said:


> I had intense talk with a very good friend this weekend that went sideways.  I've known this guy for 33 years.  Strong Elder in his church too and his family on the outside looks great. All kids went to college ((yay)) and graduated ((yay)) and with honors ((yay)) to boot.  All kids have great jobs ((yay)) and the whole family obeyed and got their shots last week.  He's is so confident ((like a super hero)) and told me I need to lead my family better and go get the shots like his Christian family did and be a good Christian like him.  I took a deep breath and started to ask him some really tough questions that I knew about and it ended with only one Q he wouldn't even answer.  After the first question I asked, he told me not to talk with him anymore until I got my shots and I'm a super bad example to everyone.  I kid you not.  It's so game on now.  I lost fair weather friends three yeas ago in the elite soccer community and now even my fellow brethren from church days is drawing lines in the sand.  I must say today I am shocked how brainwashed this old pal of mine is.  He's worse then before the shots.  Dualism has captured the soul of man
> 
> View attachment 10787


Research suggests Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine reprograms innate immune responses


----------



## crush (May 17, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Research suggests Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine reprograms innate immune responses


Check this out.  I can;t and i wont say where or who but I will say the pressure being put on athletes right now to "take the shots" and be a good teammate or go find another place to play because were all getting shots is insane!!!.  This could come down to either or Bruddah.  If you play for me, no shots needed.  Another might say, "were one big family and when the head of the family says we all need the shots, then we all need to obey so we can play."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 17, 2021)

crush said:


> Check this out.  I can;t and i wont say where or who but I will say the pressure being put on athletes right now to "take the shots" and be a good teammate or go find another place to play because were all getting shots is insane!!!.  This could come down to either or Bruddah.  If you play for me, no shots needed.  Another might say, "were one big family and when the head of the family says we all need the shots, then we all need to obey so we can play."


The shots are going to create the variants.  It’s a great business plan.


----------



## crush (May 17, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 17, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The shots are going to create the variants.  It’s a great business plan.


My Elder pal told me and I quote, "I respect that you were adopted and all and have childhood pain, but your rebellion to authority is against Christ and his teaching."  He even threw in some scriptures from the book of Hebrews to "obey your leaders."  I told him that he's talking on thin ice and taking scriptures completely out of context to suit what his itching ears want to hear and preach.  Dude is a paid Elder and thinks he's the authority of God now because.  I honestly had no idea it would get this divisive.  It's like since they sacrificed their bodies immune system and obeyed and took the two shots, they want me to "take two for the team" as well.  Guess what I told him Bruddah?  I told him he better watch WTH he's spewing out of his pie hole, Elder title or not.  He then shared a scripture about not saying anything bad to an Elder.  This dude is a fraud and now I know after 33 years. He also thinks his church and his family are the only one's saved.  This is the ultimate of dualism.  I'm saved and your not.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 17, 2021)

crush said:


> My Elder pal told me and I quote, "I respect that you were adopted and all and have childhood pain, but your rebellion to authority is against Christ and his teaching."  He even threw in some scriptures from the book of Hebrews to "obey your leaders."  I told him that he's talking on thin ice and taking scriptures completely out of context to suit what his itching ears want to hear and preach.  Dude is a paid Elder and thinks he's the authority of God now because.  I honestly had no idea it would get this divisive.  It's like since they sacrificed their bodies immune system and obeyed and took the two shots, they want me to "take two for the team" as well.  Guess what I told him Bruddah?  I told him he better watch WTH he's spewing out of his pie hole, Elder title or not.  He then shared a scripture about not saying anything bad to an Elder.  This dude is a fraud and now I know after 33 years. He also thinks his church and his family are the only one's saved.  This is the ultimate of dualism.  I'm saved and your not.


Freakin' Pharisees.


----------



## crush (May 17, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Freakin' Pharisees.


We were warned by the Master to watch out for false teachers.  Wolf is sheep's clothing.  The worse kind of snake too.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 17, 2021)

crush said:


>


I love the redemption song.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 17, 2021)

crush said:


> We were warned by the Master to watch out for false teachers.  Wolf is sheep's clothing.  The worse kind of snake too.


The Fauci's of the world.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 17, 2021)

When a Liberal Finally becomes a Conservative


----------



## Glitterhater (May 17, 2021)

It looks like the CDC is saying that despite the changes in mask wearing recs, schools still need to mask up and social distance. Our schools are still masking up but we are not socially distant at all- kinda hard with 1k kids on campus 5x/week! Curious how other districts are going to look in the fall.


----------



## Grace T. (May 17, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> It looks like the CDC is saying that despite the changes in mask wearing recs, schools still need to mask up and social distance. Our schools are still masking up but we are not socially distant at all- kinda hard with 1k kids on campus 5x/week! Curious how other districts are going to look in the fall.


I asked the kids for their input on to vaccinate or not vaccinate.  The question which came up is do we still have to wear masks to camp or school.  If nothing's going to change, they asked, why should we vaccinate.


----------



## crush (May 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I asked the kids for their input on to vaccinate or not vaccinate.  The question which came up is do we still have to wear masks to camp or school.  If nothing's going to change, they asked, why should we vaccinate.


Gr8t Q from the kid


----------



## espola (May 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I asked the kids for their input on to vaccinate or not vaccinate.  The question which came up is do we still have to wear masks to camp or school.  If nothing's going to change, they asked, why should we vaccinate.


What was your answer?


----------



## Grace T. (May 17, 2021)

espola said:


> What was your answer?


I didn't really have a good one to that.  The biggest benefit is probably no weekly COVID test and therefore if exposed no quarantine.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I didn't really have a good one to that.  The biggest benefit is probably no weekly COVID test and therefore if exposed no quarantine.


Are your kids getting weekly covid tests at school?? Wow- if so, man districts are sure operating differently!


----------



## crush (May 17, 2021)

espola said:


> What was your answer?


*Let's have George answer that Q*


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 17, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> It looks like the CDC is saying that despite the changes in mask wearing recs, schools still need to mask up and social distance. Our schools are still masking up but we are not socially distant at all- kinda hard with 1k kids on campus 5x/week! Curious how other districts are going to look in the fall.


You’re teachers Unions hard at work to keep your kids out of school or disrupted as much as possible…





__





						Impending Zoom: How A Teachers Union Influenced The CDC
					





					fee.org


----------



## Glitterhater (May 17, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> You’re teachers Unions hard at work to keep your kids out of school or disrupted as much as possible…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thankfully not mine. Mine are in school full time, all kids on campus. So far no inkling of that changing next year, (thankfully!) But I know other's aren't as fortunate.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I didn't really have a good one to that.  The biggest benefit is probably no weekly COVID test and therefore if exposed no quarantine.


Are they still testing the asymptomatic?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I asked the kids for their input on to vaccinate or not vaccinate.  The question which came up is do we still have to wear masks to camp or school.  If nothing's going to change, they asked, why should we vaccinate.


Just say that it will prepare them for a more symptomatic response and duration when re-exposed to corona.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 17, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> It looks like the CDC is saying that despite the changes in mask wearing recs, schools still need to mask up and social distance. Our schools are still masking up but we are not socially distant at all- kinda hard with 1k kids on campus 5x/week! Curious how other districts are going to look in the fall.


Who cares.  Schools aren’t teaching kids how to think.  Pretty useless to send them back to a system that hypes STEM but ignores a thorough understanding of immune systems and personal finance.


----------



## crush (May 18, 2021)

Game on losers!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 18, 2021)

Fauci Finally Admits What We All Knew About the COVID Vaccine, Masks, and Infections


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 18, 2021)

For starters, institutionally there’s no reason to listen to these clowns again. They got political. They drummed up panic. And an entire generation should ignore everything and anything they say after this COVID fiasco is over. I was told that Florida and Texas would be COVID graveyards. That was wrong.


----------



## crush (May 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> For starters, institutionally there’s no reason to listen to these clowns again. They got political. They drummed up panic. And an entire generation should ignore everything and anything they say after this COVID fiasco is over. I was told that Florida and Texas would be COVID graveyards. That was wrong.


I pulled this off the internet Bruddah.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 18, 2021)

crush said:


> I pulled this off the internet Bruddah.
> 
> View attachment 10793


Liar.  It was not a surprise.  Relative to most years past, respiratory diseases took 2017 off.  The data for 2017 was not released until 2019.  Enter the PCR test to hype the catch up year(s).  I remember when we PCR tested globally in 2003 for SARS-1.  The mask and social distancing seemed to work back then too.


----------



## dad4 (May 18, 2021)

crush said:


> I pulled this off the internet Bruddah.
> 
> View attachment 10793


You are forgetting how many other diseases qualify as a “surprise infectious disease outbreak”.

Zika, Ebola, Sars-1, Swine Flu, and Polio in Haiti also qualified as surprise infectious disease outbreaks.  He wasn’t predicting covid specifically.  He was just stating the simple fact that these other infectious disease outbreaks are rather common.


----------



## crush (May 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Liar.  It was not a surprise.  Relative to most years past, respiratory diseases took 2017 off.  The data for 2017 was not released until 2019.  Enter the PCR test to hype the catch up year(s).  I remember when we PCR tested globally in 2003 for SARS-1.  The mask and social distancing seemed to work back then too.


More like a surprise attack, right?  Surprise surprise surprise.


----------



## dad4 (May 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Liar.  It was not a surprise.  Relative to most years past, respiratory diseases took 2017 off.  The data for 2017 was not released until 2019.  Enter the PCR test to hype the catch up year(s).  I remember when we PCR tested globally in 2003 for SARS-1.  The mask and social distancing seemed to work back then too.


Asia did mask up for SARS-1.  And the masks did help.  WHO was slow back then, too.  

You’ve just forgotten.

Sample:

*WELCOME TO THAILAND*
On landing, therefore, it was rather a surprise to find all staff in Bangkok airport wearing surgical masks, including customs officials, cleaners, and police. Many passengers were shocked and began to worry, as there had been no information given on the incoming flight. The masks being used were quite basic and not of the specification recommended by the WHO for use when caring for a SARS patient.7

There was no reported transmission of SARS in Thailand at this point, although there had been seven cases and two deaths associated with travel from infected areas. We asked a policeman about the masks and were told that the Health Ministry had ordered use of surgical masks in the airport.



			https://jech.bmj.com/content/57/11/855


----------



## Grace T. (May 18, 2021)

Looks like Fauci was again not being entirely forthcoming for our own supposed good.....despite being called on it by Rand Paul


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1394614545151414276


----------



## crush (May 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Asia did mask up for SARS-1.  And the masks did help.  WHO was slow back then, too.
> 
> You’ve just forgotten.
> 
> ...


When the truth smacks some in the face, they run away instead of owning the lie ((mistake for some)) and moving forward.  Let me tell you the biggest truth of all.  NSA top cop is Q.  Q knows what Santa always knew about each one of us.  Q knows most of us need mercy & forgiveness.  Let me ask you this dad.  What would you do if someone threw one of your staffers in a wood chipper so you do as they say?  Would you lie to save others?  I have learned that almost everyone has been blackmailed at the highest of levels.  I heard about this really nice mayor who went on a private get a way for a job well done.  His wife couldnt go so he went for a little R&R with best friend.  Well, he woke up one morning to something that would make you sick for the rest of your life and compromised.  We will ALL want to show mercy to those who were so blackmailed you feel sorry for them.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like Fauci was again not being entirely forthcoming for our own supposed good.....despite being called on it by Rand Paul
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1394614545151414276


And here we see the head of AFT union saying that the CDC used basically their words on school closures.

So not science based, just based on politics. Just like Fauci above, etc.

"HUGE: AFT’s @rweingarten tells CSPAN the Biden Admin “asked for language” they could use in the CDC’s guidance on school re-openings (which was used "nearly verbatim"). "They asked us for language and we gave them language when they asked for it."









						'This is a scandal': Randi Weingarten drives massive nail into the CDC's — and Biden admin's — credibility coffin with damning admission [video]
					

"Right from the horse's mouth."




					twitchy.com


----------



## crush (May 18, 2021)

To all my science teachers and math teachers.  WTF is up these two bros?

Bro #1 get's $5,000,000 for a book deal on his Covid leadership.  Pay to play?

Bro #2 Fredo suggests being* pro-life is about being pro-racism* and Jim Crow: "It's about dividing lines, legislating to the far-right white-fright vote (...) It's just like voting rights in one way." He adds that the* pro-life movement doesn't understand that science* is on their side.

I understand 100% right about now.  You two are weird science bros who will go down as the biggest losers ever.  How many black babies were not allowed to be born because of the two witches?  Talk about fucking spinning something completely backwards.  What a bunch of asshats.  Dad's two favs too, gnarly dad that you speak up for these two.  Listen everyone, call me whatever you want but I am the voice for those without a voice.  Do you all copy?  WTFU seriously Jackos!!!


----------



## Grace T. (May 18, 2021)

Vietnam has spiked too.  Whatever was holding the virus back in Asia isn't doing as good of a job anymore against the India variant....numbers are higher than this as Vietnam engages in some of the same shell game China does with testing.








						Vietnam COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Vietnam Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## dad4 (May 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Vietnam has spiked too.  Whatever was holding the virus back in Asia isn't doing as good of a job anymore against the India variant....numbers are higher than this as Vietnam engages in some of the same shell game China does with testing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Spiked?  Past tense?  As in, they had a big surge of cases that is now over?

The leading indicators aren’t good, I agree.  But the past tense on that verb is a bit premature.  They’re still under 5000 cases and 100 deaths total.

We will know in a month or two whether they manage to control this wave or not.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Asia did mask up for SARS-1.  And the masks did help.  WHO was slow back then, too.
> 
> You’ve just forgotten.
> 
> ...


I forgot they were PCR testing too.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like Fauci was again not being entirely forthcoming for our own supposed good.....despite being called on it by Rand Paul
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1394614545151414276


Shocking!


----------



## Glitterhater (May 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Who cares.  Schools aren’t teaching kids how to think.  Pretty useless to send them back to a system that hypes STEM but ignores a thorough understanding of immune systems and personal finance.


Such an insightful reply, thank you.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And here we see the head of AFT union saying that the CDC used basically their words on school closures.
> 
> So not science based, just based on politics. Just like Fauci above, etc.
> 
> ...


So the CDC was asking the AFT to provide a narrative for the CDC to adopt to keep the schools shutdown.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 18, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Such an insightful reply, thank you.


You're welcome.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Vietnam has spiked too.  Whatever was holding the virus back in Asia isn't doing as good of a job anymore against the India variant....numbers are higher than this as Vietnam engages in some of the same shell game China does with testing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not bad for 96 million people.


----------



## crush (May 18, 2021)

*Q the Deer, Q the deer.......





*
This is a classic Chevy Chase movie.  Please, watch tonight.  Long story short is they moved out to Redbud to get away from City life.  Anyway, it sucked and they were about to get a divorce.  They had to sell their dream house and this is how they were going to trick the new peeps to buy the house.



BTW, UFOs are for reals and are coming next....


----------



## crush (May 19, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 19, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (May 19, 2021)

__





						Loading…
					





					nymag.com


----------



## Desert Hound (May 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So the ridiculously small numbers of kids being affected is even smaller than thought.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


_"Neither paper addressed the accuracy of pediatric mortality rates attributed to COVID-19, nor that of adult patients categorized as COVID-19 hospitalizations. But, Gandhi and Baral both noted, these findings clearly illustrate the need to perform similar retrospective chart reviews for COVID-19-coded adult hospitalizations and overall mortality."

Explaining why the official tallies were found to be so far off, Baral said the electronic databases that hospitals use are administrative in purpose, meant for billing, resource management, et cetera. “They were not designed to infer the prevalence and severity of an infectious virus.”* We have a desire for instant, accurate data, he said, but validation takes time.*_

And all tyranny needs is time.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So the ridiculously small numbers of kids being affected is even smaller than thought.


But that is old news too.  We've known for decades.  Add the abortion rates to the overall child mortality rates and see what happens.  NOTHING!!  What's the insurance code for abortions?


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Disturbing.  The data is one thing, now someone needs to find out the how's and why's of this happening.  It's not unreasonable to believe that a similar thing happened with adults.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> It's not unreasonable to believe that a similar thing happened with adults.


But that was known last May as we looked at the data trends from past respiratory diseases......in the absence of Global masking, social distancing, and lockdowns.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> Disturbing.  The data is one thing, now someone needs to find out the how's and why's of this happening.  It's not unreasonable to believe that a similar thing happened with adults.


Well we already know it has happened with adults. 

Dr Birx commented a long time ago that they thought the numbers could be off by as much as 25%

There is at least one state health commissioner that is on tape (TV conference) stating that a good percentage of deaths were being attributed to COVID which were not as a result of the virus. 

Getting these numbers is going to be difficult. 

The various levels of government have an incentive to keep incorrect numbers hidden away.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well we already know it has happened with adults.
> 
> Dr Birx commented a long time ago that they thought the numbers could be off by as much as 25%
> 
> ...


CDC always reports 2 years behind.  Doesn't mean they don't have it.  It just means that their validation methods are slow.  Where are the WMD's


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well we already know it has happened with adults.
> 
> Dr Birx commented a long time ago that they thought the numbers could be off by as much as 25%
> 
> ...


I wonder what the reporting form the hospitals used said?  I suspect it said something to the effect of how many of your patients tested positive for Covid?  That shouldn't be hard to figure out...or maybe I'm just being naïve.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

Latest COVID News from Texas Shows Beto O'Rourke Stepped on a Rake...Big League


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> I wonder what the reporting form the hospitals used said?  I suspect it said something to the effect of how many of your patients tested positive for Covid?  That shouldn't be hard to figure out...or maybe I'm just being naïve.


Starts with the use of PCR testing.  Wrong test for determining presence of Corona.  Right test for finding corona genetic sequences.  Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in your boogers.


----------



## espola (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> I wonder what the reporting form the hospitals used said?  I suspect it said something to the effect of how many of your patients tested positive for Covid?  That shouldn't be hard to figure out...or maybe I'm just being naïve.


It has already been noted that Medicare and other government-funded health insurance programs pay a premium (15%-20%) for the treatment of any patients testing positive for covid19 because of the added costs of treatment (even if they don't die of it).


----------



## Desert Hound (May 19, 2021)

This thread needs a little humor today.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This thread needs a little humor today.
> 
> View attachment 10804


You mean without the garage door pull down noose?


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

espola said:


> It has already been noted that Medicare and other government-funded health insurance programs pay a premium (15%-20%) for the treatment of any patients testing positive for covid19 because of the added costs of treatment (even if they don't die of it).


I think that may be at least part of the explanation.  I'm just really curious as to how its defined by the State, Medicare etc.  To me there is a huge difference between someone in the hospital that has tested positive for Covid, and someone in the hospital that is being treated for Covid "disease".


----------



## espola (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> I think that may be at least part of the explanation.  I'm just really curious as to how its defined by the State, Medicare etc.  To me there is a huge difference between someone in the hospital that has tested positive for Covid, and someone in the hospital that is being treated for Covid "disease".


I don't understand the point.


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't understand the point.


I'll indulge.

Patient A - Broken leg, tests positive for Covid.  No covid symptoms, treated for broken leg.
Patient B - Trouble breathing, tests positive for Covid, has Covid symptoms. Treated for Covid.

Patient A should not be counted as Covid hospitalization, patient B should be.

Does Covid hospitalization = 1) treated for Covid in hospital, or 2) a patient tests positive for Covid regardless of whether they were treated for Covid or something else.  If a patient is treated for Covid as well as something else that's fair to be defined as a Covid hospitalization.


----------



## crush (May 19, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This thread needs a little humor today.
> 
> View attachment 10804











						Biden Met With Silence While Speaking With Cadets
					

This is the most cringeworthy President we've ever seen




					rumble.com


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> Disturbing.  The data is one thing, now someone needs to find out the how's and why's of this happening.  It's not unreasonable to believe that a similar thing happened with adults.


You seem to be trying for a “this isn’t really happening” story.

Overall deaths worldwide are up by about 10 million compared to expected values.  It is happening.  At most, you are arguing about _which_ people died from covid, not _whether_ people died from covid.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'll indulge.
> 
> Patient A - Broken leg, tests positive for Covid.  No covid symptoms, treated for broken leg.
> Patient B - Trouble breathing, tests positive for Covid, has Covid symptoms. Treated for Covid.
> ...


Why the premium for a cold virus?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You seem to be trying for a “this isn’t really happening” story.
> 
> Overall deaths worldwide are up by about 10 million compared to expected values.  It is happening.  At most, you are arguing about _which_ people died from covid, not _whether_ people died from covid.


Run along now.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

crush said:


> Biden Met With Silence While Speaking With Cadets
> 
> 
> This is the most cringeworthy President we've ever seen
> ...


Holding back the laughter must have been pure torture.


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You seem to be trying for a “this isn’t really happening” story.
> 
> Overall deaths worldwide are up by about 10 million compared to expected values.  It is happening.  At most, you are arguing about _which_ people died from covid, not _whether_ people died from covid.


It is happening, just not to children.  Schools should have been open full time in September (with reasonable precautions) because the overwhelming science supported it.  Period, end of story.  Anyone that thinks otherwise is incredibly selfish.  Now its your choice not to send your kid to school, more power to you.  But don't take every kid's right away because of fear mongering and politics.

If the Titanic is sinking, you don't let the adults get in the lifeboats first...or maybe you do.


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> It is happening, just not to children.  Schools should have been open full time in September (with reasonable precautions) because the overwhelming science supported it.  Period, end of story.  Anyone that thinks otherwise is incredibly selfish.  Now its your choice not to send your kid to school, more power to you.  But don't take every kid's right away because of fear mongering and politics.
> 
> If the Titanic is sinking, you don't let the adults get in the lifeboats first...or maybe you do.


Until recently, we didn’t have any lifeboats.

What we had were idiots who wanted to drill more holes in the bottom of the boat.  They’re still here, if you look around.  

And what science supports opening high schools, indoors, while taking no efforts to reduce community transmission?  

Most of what I remember was people arguing that we should have closed bars/gyms/restaurants and opened schools.  I don’t remember any science saying we should ditch masks and keep everything open.


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Until recently, we didn’t have any lifeboats.
> 
> What we had were idiots who wanted to drill more holes in the bottom of the boat.  They’re still here, if you look around.
> 
> ...


Schools are a lifeboat for our children.

Your idea of "efforts to reduce community transmission" is to close, shutdown and lockdown.  It's the lazy and non-creative solution.

But, again if you didn't miscast others arguments you'd have very little to debate.


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> Schools are a lifeboat for our children.
> 
> Your idea of "efforts to reduce community transmission" is to close, shutdown and lockdown.  It's the lazy and non-creative solution.
> 
> But, again if you didn't miscast others arguments you'd have very little to debate.


You accuse me of miscasting your argument, in exactly the same post as you miscast mine.


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You accuse me of miscasting your argument, in exactly the same post as you miscast mine.


I'll play.  Did you have any solutions for restaurants, bars and indoor small businesses other than being shut during the middle of the pandemic?  I don't recall that you did, but I could be wrong.  You only within the last few months were of the opinion that schools should be reopened.  In fact, you called the Academy of Pediatrics and the National Academy of Medicine recommendations last year that kids should be in school, BS.  I on the other hand never proposed that schools should reopen without precautions, although admittedly, I wouldn't lose any sleep if they opened without precautions, as long as, there were notifications of exposure or outbreaks.


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'll play.  Did you have any solutions for restaurants, bars and indoor small businesses other than being shut during the middle of the pandemic?  I don't recall that you did, but I could be wrong.  You only within the last few months were of the opinion that schools should be reopened.  In fact, you called the Academy of Pediatrics and the National Academy of Medicine recommendations last year that kids should be in school, BS.  I on the other hand never proposed that schools should reopen without precautions, although admittedly, I wouldn't lose any sleep if they opened without precautions, as long as, there were notifications of exposure or outbreaks.


The number one thing is moving risky things outdoors.  That could have helped churches, gyms, bars, and restaurants.  Schools, too.

For schools, why should a teacher have been willing to teach in person if the rest of the public isn’t willing to skip the restaurants or wear a mask?  You were asking the teacher to accept an elevated risk, while you do absolutely nothing to help.

Yes, the risk to a teacher in a well ventilated room of masked kids is low.  Now think about what happens as you relax those assumptions.  The risk stops being low.

Suppose kids are refusing to wear masks.  Is the teacher allowed to kick kids out for not wearing masks?  Unless it is private school, probably not.  So assume the kids, like their parents, skip masks.

The AAP assumed ventilation.  Will anyone actually upgrade the ventilation system in each classroom?  Don’t be silly.  They can’t even keep the water faucets working.  At most, they’ll send out an email asking teachers to open a window.

So, if you require teachers to teach in a well ventilated room of masked kids, you also require teachers to teach in poorly ventilated rooms of unmasked kids.   It is no longer a low risk, but it is what will happen.  

This is why I supported outdoor school, and school with each teacher teaching a single cohort.  School is important, and moving class outside seemed the simplest way to make it safe.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The number one thing is moving risky things outdoors.


Yeah, if only soccer were played outdoors the kids wouldn't have missed a year


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The number one thing is moving risky things outdoors.


Many of these smaller businesses tried that in Ca, only to have our Governor shut that down as well.


----------



## espola (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'll indulge.
> 
> Patient A - Broken leg, tests positive for Covid.  No covid symptoms, treated for broken leg.
> Patient B - Trouble breathing, tests positive for Covid, has Covid symptoms. Treated for Covid.
> ...


The reason Patient A is "counted as covid" is because the hospital must follow covid isolation and testing protocols that result in increased costs for the hospital and therefore qualify for the higher reimbursement levels.


----------



## espola (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> Schools are a lifeboat for our children.
> 
> Your idea of "efforts to reduce community transmission" is to close, shutdown and lockdown.  It's the lazy and non-creative solution.
> 
> But, again if you didn't miscast others arguments you'd have very little to debate.


What would be a more creative solution?


----------



## LASTMAN14 (May 19, 2021)

Li


Kicker4Life said:


> Many of these smaller businesses tried that in Ca, only to have our Governor shut that down as well.


Like this...


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The number one thing is moving risky things outdoors.  That could have helped churches, gyms, bars, and restaurants.  Schools, too.
> 
> For schools, why should a teacher have been willing to teach in person if the rest of the public isn’t willing to skip the restaurants or wear a mask?  You were asking the teacher to accept an elevated risk, while you do absolutely nothing to help.
> 
> ...


Don't disagree with moving things outdoors, but for schools that's an extreme and impractical measure given the nominal risk.  To be honest whether it's my plan or your plan, the argument is moot since the Unions wouldn't have allowed either.

Here is real life though.  Our indoor youth club houses (that aren't on school property) have been open since June (all day since the schools were closed).  Serving hundreds of kids, we had some infections among kids and staff, but zero outbreaks and no serious illnesses.  Combine that with all the private schools that have operated safely since September.  We can speculate all we want, but the proof is in the pudding.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> Don't disagree with moving things outdoors, but for schools that's an extreme and impractical measure given the nominal risk.  To be honest whether it's my plan or your plan, the argument is moot since the Unions wouldn't have allowed either.
> 
> Here is real life though.  Our indoor youth club houses (that aren't on school property) have been open since June (all day since the schools were closed).  Serving hundreds of kids, we had some infections among kids and staff, but zero outbreaks and no serious illnesses.  Combine that with all the private schools that have operated safely since September.  We can speculate all we want, but the proof is in the pudding.


Don’t forget the other schools around the country that remained open since Sept.


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Don’t forget the other schools around the country that remained open since Sept.


Unless the schools had an effective way to detect asymptomatic transmission amongst the kids, the existence of open schools is no evidence one way or the other.  

I suppose you could compare covid rates among teachers to covid rates among the general population in the same areas.  Has anyone done that?  If not, then all those open schools prove exactly nothing.  Even then, you might prove nothing more than the fact that a lot of teachers are overweight, and thus more likely to show symptoms.


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> Don't disagree with moving things outdoors, but for schools that's an extreme and impractical measure given the nominal risk.  To be honest whether it's my plan or your plan, the argument is moot since the Unions wouldn't have allowed either.
> 
> Here is real life though.  Our indoor youth club houses (that aren't on school property) have been open since June (all day since the schools were closed).  Serving hundreds of kids, we had some infections among kids and staff, but zero outbreaks and no serious illnesses.  Combine that with all the private schools that have operated safely since September.  We can speculate all we want, but the proof is in the pudding.


Given what we know about covid, why should I believe that sitting in a room with 30 people outside my family counts as “nominal” risk?  Then repeat for 4 more groups.  It’s a large gathering, extended time, indoor, poorly masked, poorly distanced, and poorly ventilated.  What transmission risk factor are we missing?

Your indoor youth club houses probably contribute to community spread by having one asymptomatic youth transfer the virus to another asymptomatic youth.  Unless you have awesome contact tracing, which you don’t, you do not know whether kids got covid at the youth center and brought it home to grandma.

Sad thing is, the same program held outdoors was actually pretty safe.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Unless the schools had an effective way to detect asymptomatic transmission amongst the kids, the existence of open schools is no evidence one way or the other.
> 
> I suppose you could compare covid rates among teachers to covid rates among the general population in the same areas.  Has anyone done that?  If not, then all those open schools prove exactly nothing.  Even then, you might prove nothing more than the fact that a lot of teachers are overweight, and thus more likely to show symptoms.


My point being several other states across this country were able to effectively open schools for in person learning, so it isn’t impossible.


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> My point being several other states across this country were able to effectively open schools for in person learning, so it isn’t impossible.


Of course it is possible.

What were the effects?


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Given what we know about covid, why should I believe that sitting in a room with 30 people outside my family counts as “nominal” risk?  Then repeat for 4 more groups.  It’s a large gathering, extended time, indoor, poorly masked, poorly distanced, and poorly ventilated.  What transmission risk factor are we missing?
> 
> Your indoor youth club houses probably contribute to community spread by having one asymptomatic youth transfer the virus to another asymptomatic youth.  Unless you have awesome contact tracing, which you don’t, you do not know whether kids got covid at the youth center and brought it home to grandma.
> 
> Sad thing is, the same program held outdoors was actually pretty safe.


No, the sad thing is your proposed treatment of children and your denial of reality.  Casting aspersions on our clubhouses that serve underprivileged kids that have nowhere else to go or can only go to other places that are less safe is incredibly arrogant.  Sorry but you crossed the line.  You know nothing about our programs and stop trying to hide behind the no contact tracing and asymptomatic spread speculative bullshit.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 19, 2021)

espola said:


> The reason Patient A is "counted as covid" is because the hospital must follow covid isolation and testing protocols that result in increased costs for the hospital and therefore qualify for the higher reimbursement levels.


Common sense, and that ain’t to common in here.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Of course it is possible.
> 
> What were the effects?


Have you seen any major news stories over the past 12 months of massive breakouts in schools and people dropping like flies because they were catching Covid while in school?


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Have you seen any major news stories over the past 12 months of massive breakouts in schools and people dropping like flies because they were catching Covid while in school?


We aren’t talking about a massive breakout of kids getting visibly sick.  We are talking about asymptomatic kids giving covid to other asymptomatic kids, who then bring it home to grandma.  The only visible link is the last one.  We had the news articles about grandma dying.  

What makes you think a journalist would be able to do the contact tracing to link it to the school?  (as opposed to the dinner party, the restaurant, or the casino.)


----------



## watfly (May 19, 2021)

espola said:


> The reason Patient A is "counted as covid" is because the hospital must follow covid isolation and testing protocols that result in increased costs for the hospital and therefore qualify for the higher reimbursement levels.


I actually agree with you in regards to reimbursement. But I don't agree that it should be counted as a Covid hospitalization.  As the article clearly states it grossly exaggerates the threat to children.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You seem to be trying for a “this isn’t really happening” story.
> 
> Overall deaths worldwide are up by about 10 million compared to expected values.  It is happening.  At most, you are arguing about _which_ people died from covid, not _whether_ people died from covid.


Starts with the use of PCR testing. Wrong test for determining presence of Corona. Right test for finding corona genetic sequences. Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in your boogers.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We aren’t talking about a massive breakout of kids getting visibly sick.  We are talking about asymptomatic kids giving covid to other asymptomatic kids, who then bring it home to grandma.  The only visible link is the last one.  We had the news articles about grandma dying.
> 
> What makes you think a journalist would be able to do the contact tracing to link it to the school?  (as opposed to the dinner party, the restaurant, or the casino.)


Cause Grandma was in quarantine, separated from her grandkids because she’s high risk….


----------



## N00B (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We aren’t talking about a massive breakout of kids getting visibly sick.  We are talking about asymptomatic kids giving covid to other asymptomatic kids, who then bring it home to grandma.  The only visible link is the last one.  We had the news articles about grandma dying.
> 
> What makes you think a journalist would be able to do the contact tracing to link it to the school?  (as opposed to the dinner party, the restaurant, or the casino.)


Can we drop the asymptomatic spread theory now that we’re we know that is not a factor... pre-symptomatic yes, so still isolate/quarantine known exposures.









						Analysis of Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Transmission in SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak, Germany, 2020
					

Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2




					wwwnc.cdc.gov


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

N00B said:


> Can we drop the asymptomatic spread theory now that we’re we know that is not a factor... pre-symptomatic yes, so still isolate/quarantine known exposures.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Do we believe that 14 year olds typically display more than mild to moderate flu symptoms?

If no, then please replace the word "asymptomatic" with "sniffly".  The basic argument is the same:

One moderately sniffly kid gives covid to a second kid, who gives covid to grandma just before he realizes that he has the sniffles.  

Same problem for grandma.


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Cause Grandma was in quarantine, separated from her grandkids because she’s high risk….


Wishful thinking.

Can you name anywhere which successfully used quarantine to protect the elderly from a high rate of community transmission?  Anywhere on the planet with high cases, no vaccine, but low deaths.....

If the answer is no, then maybe grandma wasn't quite so safe as you imply.


----------



## N00B (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Do we believe that 14 year olds typically display more than mild to moderate flu symptoms?
> 
> If no, then please replace the word "asymptomatic" with "sniffly".  The basic argument is the same:
> 
> ...


Nice hypothetical, sans the real world.  

You’re assuming student A is sent to school with the ‘sniffles’, that the school does not notice and isolate the child and their cohort.  Also, that they don’t notify student B of an exposure when they quarantine the cohort.  Further that student B’s family still is in close contact with grandma in the midst of a pandemic when they shouldn’t be. Not to mention that you’re not considered contagious immediately after exposure.

The ‘basic’ argument is assuming the worst possible outcome with the least likely probability.  Aka false.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Wishful thinking.
> 
> Can you name anywhere which successfully used quarantine to protect the elderly from a high rate of community transmission?  Anywhere on the planet with high cases, no vaccine, but low deaths.....
> 
> If the answer is no, then maybe grandma wasn't quite so safe as you imply.


Name somewhere that took the policy to shelter the elderly…..isn’t that what we’ve learned so far with the vaccine roll out….start with protecting the vulnerable and move on from there. Doesn’t the numbers reflect the benefits of that strategy?


----------



## dad4 (May 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Name somewhere that took the policy to shelter the elderly…..isn’t that what we’ve learned so far with the vaccine roll out….start with protecting the vulnerable and move on from there. Doesn’t the numbers reflect the benefits of that strategy?


Vaccinate the elderly worked.  But that isn't what you said.

You said grandma was safe because she was in quarantine.  

Is there anywhere in the world which used an elderly quarantine to get that result?  Anywhere?


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Vaccinate the elderly worked.  But that isn't what you said.
> 
> You said grandma was safe because she was in quarantine.
> 
> Is there anywhere in the world which used an elderly quarantine to get that result?  Anywhere?


Cause the timeframe for students going back to school predates vaccine availability.  But the strategy to “protect the vulnerable” whether by isolation or vaccination IS my point.   It IS the best strategy that was never used…why?

Hell, the initial vaccine roll out didn’t include the elderly (most vulnerable) in the initial roll out….why?

With all do respect we are obviously talking in hypotheticals.  Hypothetically, our kids weren’t stripped of a years with of education and in that hypothetical, we isolated the elderly and high risk population, took precautions by moving indoor dining outdoors and limited indoor capacity as warranted by the available science.  The population wasn’t lied to (ok, mislead for our own good) by the National Covid spokesman and our economy and kids wouldn’t have suffered so much.  Even more so, would have likely saved lives bay going this route…..hypothetically and all.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Of course it is possible.
> 
> What were the effects?


Well the effects were not as you claimed at the time. 

You are on record here saying it would lead to massive outbreaks if 100s of thousands of kids were in school. 

We say FL basically have schools open all year long. Same in TX. 

Etc. 

What we didn't see is any outbreaks linked to schools that many like you predicted would happen.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 20, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Common sense, and that ain’t to common in here.


We assume you are looking in the mirror talking to yourself?


----------



## dad4 (May 20, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Cause the timeframe for students going back to school predates vaccine availability.  But the strategy to “protect the vulnerable” whether by isolation or vaccination IS my point.   It IS the beat strategy that was never used…why?
> 
> Hell, the initial vaccine roll out didn’t include the elderly (most vulnerable) in the initial roll out….why?
> 
> With all do respect we are obviously talking in hypotheticals.  Hypothetically, our kids weren’t stripped of a years with of education and in they hypothetical, we isolated the elderly and high risk population, took precautions by moving indoor dining outdoors and limited indoor capacity as warranted by the available science.  The population wasn’t lied to (ok, mislead for our own good) by the National Covid spokesman and our economy and kids wouldn’t have suffered so much.  Even more so, would have likely saved lives bay going this route…..hypothetically and all.


Your hypothetical requires a level of trust we just didn’t have.  

You don’t get good scientific advice by treating your scientists like contestants on the Apprentice.  Last September, Fauci and the civil service staff were busy trying to avoid getting completely sidelined.  They were in no position to recommend a major shift in policy, or even do the work necessary to realize that one was warranted,


----------



## crush (May 20, 2021)

WHO made this?


----------



## crush (May 20, 2021)




----------



## Kicker4Life (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your hypothetical requires a level of trust we just didn’t have.
> 
> You don’t get good scientific advice by treating your scientists like contestants on the Apprentice.  Last September, Fauci and the civil service staff were busy trying to avoid getting completely sidelined.  They were in no position to recommend a major shift in policy, or even do the work necessary to realize that one was warranted,


Maybe they should have been honest from the start…..we agree that the response to the virus became a political battlefield and we the people are the ones who suffered.  Especially here in CA!

But you will not change my mind on what I have said from the beginning, protect the most vulnerable.

Have a nice day!


----------



## watfly (May 20, 2021)

crush said:


> WHO made this?
> 
> View attachment 10807


IDK but I hope they have a good royalty agreement.


----------



## watfly (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> They were in no position to recommend a major shift in policy, or even do the work necessary to realize that one was warranted,


They started with a major shift in policy by putting a grossly disproportionate burden on our children, and continued that policy despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.  In your incredibly rare hypothetical where an asymptomatic child infects a grandparent.  Why do you recommend putting the burden on the kids (no school) and not the responsibility on the adults?  The normal and customary way we have always handled things in the country is to make the adults responsible.

Also they started with a major policy shift by quarantining healthy people.  That's unprecedented and prior to this pandemic has never been recommended.

At the end of the day we have fundamentally different philosophies based on our personal environments.  You believe we should always err on the side of caution.  I believe we should balance caution with freedom.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> Don't disagree with moving things outdoors, but for schools that's an extreme and impractical measure given the nominal risk.  To be honest whether it's my plan or your plan, the argument is moot since the Unions wouldn't have allowed either.
> 
> Here is real life though.  Our indoor youth club houses (that aren't on school property) have been open since June (all day since the schools were closed).  Serving hundreds of kids, we had some infections among kids and staff, but zero outbreaks and no serious illnesses.  Combine that with all the private schools that have operated safely since September.  We can speculate all we want, but the proof is in the pudding.


The proof is in the past respiratory disease data.  Data was already moving in the same direction as past respiratory diseases since May 2020.  Our old friend Corona was already being destroyed.  Hence the flat line for deaths compared to the rocket launched hysteria of the alleged experts.  I know it’s shocking to most.  But you do have a pretty amazing immune system.  We are bathing in 10000000000000000000000000000000 virus’s a day.  Or 10 to the 31th if you prefer.  Mask are like a virus hotel.  The one's that make it through the mask deliver a ton of intel and updates to our immune system.  Yes, you were all born with an immune system.  Proof?  You're still alive after all these years.  More proof you say?  Have YOUR life insurance premiums increased given how dangerous the world has become?  Lol!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Do we believe that 14 year olds typically display more than mild to moderate flu symptoms?
> 
> If no, then please replace the word "asymptomatic" with "sniffly".  The basic argument is the same:
> 
> ...


Starts with the use of PCR testing. Wrong test for determining presence of Corona. Right test for finding corona genetic sequences. Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in your boogers.  Start there.  Otherwise, you're credibility is like Fauci's.  And we all know how smart he is.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Wishful thinking.
> 
> Can you name anywhere which successfully used quarantine to protect the elderly from a high rate of community transmission?  Anywhere on the planet with high cases, no vaccine, but low deaths.....
> 
> If the answer is no, then maybe grandma wasn't quite so safe as you imply.


Starts with the use of PCR testing. Wrong test for determining presence of Corona. Right test for finding corona genetic sequences. Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in your boogers. Start there. Otherwise, you're credibility is like Fauci's. And we all know how smart he is.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Vaccinate the elderly worked.  But that isn't what you said.
> 
> You said grandma was safe because she was in quarantine.
> 
> Is there anywhere in the world which used an elderly quarantine to get that result?  Anywhere?


Starts with the use of PCR testing. Wrong test for determining presence of Corona. Right test for finding corona genetic sequences. Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in your boogers. Start there. Otherwise, you're credibility is like Fauci's. And we all know how smart he is.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your hypothetical requires a level of trust we just didn’t have.
> 
> You don’t get good scientific advice by treating your scientists like contestants on the Apprentice.  Last September, Fauci and the civil service staff were busy trying to avoid getting completely sidelined.  They were in no position to recommend a major shift in policy, or even do the work necessary to realize that one was warranted,


You don’t get good scientific advice with the use of PCR testing.  Wrong test for determining presence of Corona. Right test for finding corona genetic sequences. Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in your boogers. Start there. Otherwise, you're credibility is like Fauci's. And we all know how smart he is.


----------



## crush (May 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> IDK but I hope they have a good royalty agreement.


I know who but everyone thinks I'm crazy ass soccer father.  POS losers already lost....lol!! BTW, my "S" stands for Slime.  Let's just hope the most evil of them all is captured already.


Bruddah IZ said:


> The proof is in the past respiratory disease data.  Data was already moving in the same direction as past respiratory diseases since May 2020.  Our old friend Corona was already being destroyed.  Hence the flat line for deaths compared to the rocket launched hysteria of the alleged experts.  I know it’s shocking to most.  But you do have a pretty amazing immune system.  We are bathing in 10000000000000000000000000000000 virus’s a day.  Or 10 to the 31th if you prefer.  Mask are like a virus hotel.  The one's that make it through the mask deliver a ton of intel and updates to our immune system.  Yes, you were all born with an immune system.  Proof?  You're still alive after all these years.  More proof you say?  Have YOUR life insurance premiums increased given how dangerous the world has become?  Lol!


My pal is making a killing selling life and universal life.  Premiums are around the same he says which makes me scratch my brain a little.


----------



## dad4 (May 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> They started with a major shift in policy by putting a grossly disproportionate burden on our children, and continued that policy despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary.  In your incredibly rare hypothetical where an asymptomatic child infects a grandparent.  Why do you recommend putting the burden on the kids (no school) and not the responsibility on the adults?  The normal and customary way we have always handled things in the country is to make the adults responsible.
> 
> Also they started with a major policy shift by quarantining healthy people.  That's unprecedented and prior to this pandemic has never been recommended.
> 
> At the end of the day we have fundamentally different philosophies based on our personal environments.  You believe we should always err on the side of caution.  I believe we should balance caution with freedom.


You would prefer they had never done the first lockdown?  Just issue some voluntary guidance and trust adults to “be responsible”.

Remember that, when we trusted adults to “be responsible”, half the rich people in New York hopped on planes to go to their vacation homes- bringing covid with them.  The very first thing they did with their freedom of movement was seed new infection clusters all over the country.

Freedom needs some limits.  Had we just kept with the freedom plan, the whole country would have had NYC levels of infection by late April, 2020.  And that 2.2 million deaths estimate would have been much more accurate.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You would prefer they had never done the first lockdown?  Just issue some voluntary guidance and trust adults to “be responsible”.


Or maybe we expect experts to be responsible and follow the science that says PCR is the wrong test for determining presence of Corona. Right test for finding corona genetic sequences. Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in YOUR boogers. Start there. Otherwise, you're credibility is like Fauci's.  And we all know how smart he is. 



dad4 said:


> Remember that, when we trusted adults to “be responsible”, half the rich people in New York hopped on planes to go to their vacation homes- bringing covid with them.  The very first thing they did with their freedom of movement was seed new infection clusters all over the country.


Starts with the use of PCR testing. Wrong test for determining presence of Corona. Right test for finding corona genetic sequences. Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in your boogers. Start there. Otherwise, you're credibility is like Fauci's. And we all know how smart he is. 



dad4 said:


> Freedom needs some limits.  Had we just kept with the freedom plan, the whole country would have had NYC levels of infection by late April, 2020.  And that 2.2 million deaths estimate would have been much more accurate.


Starts with the use of PCR testing. Wrong test for determining presence of Corona. Right test for finding corona genetic sequences. Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in your boogers. Start there. Otherwise, you're credibility is like Fauci's. And we all know how smart he is.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

crush said:


> My pal is making a killing selling life and universal life.  Premiums are around the same he says which makes me scratch my brain a little.


One things for sure.  Dad4 could never be an insurance actuary.  Did you mean Whole Life and Universal?


----------



## crush (May 20, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> One things for sure.  Dad4 could never be an insurance actuary.  Did you mean Whole Life and Universal?


Yes and now they offer, Half Life.  Killer program Bruddah


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Freedom needs some limits.


Got that right.  Being free from government tyranny driven by faulty science that relys on the wrong test for determining presence of Corona. Right test for finding corona genetic sequences. Wrong test for determining how long those sequences have been in your boogers. Start there. Otherwise, you're credibility is like Fauci's. And we all know how smart he is.


----------



## watfly (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You would prefer they had never done the first lockdown?  Just issue some voluntary guidance and trust adults to “be responsible”.
> 
> Remember that, when we trusted adults to “be responsible”, half the rich people in New York hopped on planes to go to their vacation homes- bringing covid with them.  The very first thing they did with their freedom of movement was seed new infection clusters all over the country.
> 
> Freedom needs some limits.  Had we just kept with the freedom plan, the whole country would have had NYC levels of infection by late April, 2020.  And that 2.2 million deaths estimate would have been much more accurate.


Again never "my testimony".  Stop trying to pin a no mask, everything open and no precaution policy on me.  I never said that and I'm in fact on record as saying I was OK with the initial flatten the curve lockdown. And while not preferable, it was not totally unreasonable to keep schools closed through the end of the last school year.  However, not reopening schools for the new school year in Aug/Sep crossed way past the line for me.  It was nothing short of reprehensible.

Like I said we will never agree.  Your livelihood is entirely dependent on the government, mine is not, and oftentimes government is more of a hinderance to me than a help.  Of course, you would want more government intervention and protection.

I believe you have the right to be an idiot in the US; however, I also believe believe you should be held individually accountable for your actions that harm others.  Unfortunately, these days it seems were trading individual accountability for government control and victimhood.   I don't like that trend.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 20, 2021)

espola said:


> What would be a more creative solution?


Open schools to those that wanted to go back. If they didn't have enough teachers to teach in person, have them Zoom into the classroom. If grandma lives at home, keep your kid at home. If you didn't see grandma for 15 months like us, send your kid to school if you are comfortable. Look at "real world" results before restricting activities such as outside sports, playgrounds, and hiking trails, etc. Oh yeah, don't lie to people and expect them to accept that "it was for their own good". Normally I'd call that common sense, but based on what we have seen at all levels of government, this qualifies as creative.


----------



## dad4 (May 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> Again never "my testimony".  Stop trying to pin a no mask, everything open and no precaution policy on me.  I never said that and I'm in fact on record as saying I was OK with the initial flatten the curve lockdown. And while not preferable, it was not totally unreasonable to keep schools closed through the end of the last school year.  However, not reopening schools for the new school year in Aug/Sep crossed way past the line for me.  It was nothing short of reprehensible.
> 
> Like I said we will never agree.  Your livelihood is entirely dependent on the government, mine is not, and oftentimes government is more of a hinderance to me than a help.  Of course, you would want more government intervention and protection.
> 
> I believe you have the right to be an idiot in the US; however, I also believe believe you should be held individually accountable for your actions that harm others.  Unfortunately, these days it seems were trading individual accountability for government control and victimhood.   I don't like that trend.


In an infectious disease context, how is it possible to “be held individually accountable for your actions that harm others.”?  Can you even define what you mean by that?  Or give a workable example of how we could do it?

Supposing I go to a restaurant, catch covid, give it to a senior citizen at the grocery store, and they then die.

How, exactly, do you propose to have ‘individual accountability” for my role in their death?

Sounds like a lot of empty words to me.  You can’t even define what you mean by them or how it would work.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> In an infectious disease context, how is it possible to “be held individually accountable for your actions that harm others.”?  Can you even define what you mean by that?  Or give a workable example of how we could do it?


Accountability?  How about you start with the wrong test used to identify CORONA infection.

Otherwise, you're just babblin'.


----------



## watfly (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> In an infectious disease context, how is it possible to “be held individually accountable for your actions that harm others.”?  Can you even define what you mean by that?  Or give a workable example of how we could do it?
> 
> Supposing I go to a restaurant, catch covid, give it to a senior citizen at the grocery store, and they then die.
> 
> ...


Simple concept.  If grandma or any adult is concerned about getting sick from kids or anyone outside their family, then limit your exposure or do it only fully masked.  Masks work right?  Or if your concerned about getting it from school children, then don't send your kids to school.  If you get sick then you have just been held accountable for your actions and don't play the victim card.  Maybe personal responsibility is a better word.  Worry about your own behavior, and less the behavior of others.  Like I've said many times your behavior, and not the behavior or others, overwhelming impacts whether you get Covid (a car accident probably less so).  Your approach is "I don't want to be a victim, so please government control the behavior of others".  That's a selfish mentality.


----------



## crush (May 20, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

"The Safe Space People"


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 20, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> "The Safe Space People"


The Professor


----------



## dad4 (May 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> Simple concept.  If grandma or any adult is concerned about getting sick from kids or anyone outside their family, then limit your exposure or do it only fully masked.  Masks work right?  Or if your concerned about getting it from school children, then don't send your kids to school.  If you get sick then you have just been held accountable for your actions and don't play the victim card.  Maybe personal responsibility is a better word.  Worry about your own behavior, and less the behavior of others.  Like I've said many times your behavior, and not the behavior or others, overwhelming impacts whether you get Covid (a car accident probably less so).  Your approach is "I don't want to be a victim, so please government control the behavior of others".  That's a selfish mentality.


No one can answer your “Masks work, right?” question.  You are asking for a boolean answer to a non-boolean question.  It’s no more meaningful than asking whether a goalie blocks goals- and insisting that the only possible answers are “yes” and “no”.

Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  They do not come close to eliminating transmission.

The argument for masks, distance, and moving things outside has nothing to do with eliminating transmission.  If you try to think of it in those terms, you will never get your head around it.

All of these measures work by reducing transmission.  The goal isn’t zero.  Zero isn’t even possible.  The goal is to keep cutting transmission in half until it is less than one.

This is why public health officials can‘t just let you go away and do your thing.  What good does it do if 70% of us are busy cutting our transmission, while 30% of you keep spreading disease?  The disease will continue to spread, because, no matter what the rest of us do, your 30% is enough to keep transmission above 1.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> Your approach is "I don't want to be a victim, so please government control the behavior of others". That's a selfish mentality.


BINGO!


----------



## watfly (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No one can answer your “Masks work, right?” question.


You're funny, a couple weeks ago I tried to get you to stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable evidence that masks work, as I was willing to stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable evidence that masks don't work.  You adamantly refused.  I'm glad you've finally come around, but somehow I don't think its sincere and more a convenient change in opinion to rebut the argument at hand.

BTW I had to look "boolean" up to refresh my memory on what it meant.  Of course I agree with you that we don't know "yes or no" whether masks work.  It's a big "maybe" and I'm glad you're finally conceding that point...or not.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *Masks reduce the probability of transmission*.  That’s all.  *They do not come close to eliminating transmission*.


Dad$'s Mask Mea Culpa


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No one can answer your “Masks work, right?” question.  You are asking for a boolean answer to a non-boolean question.  It’s no more meaningful than asking whether a goalie blocks goals- and insisting that the only possible answers are “yes” and “no”.
> 
> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  They do not come close to eliminating transmission.
> 
> ...


Circle


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> You're funny, a couple weeks ago I tried to get you to stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable evidence that masks work, as I was willing to stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable evidence that masks don't work.  You adamantly refused.  I'm glad you've finally come around, but somehow I don't think its sincere and more a convenient change in opinion to rebut the argument at hand.
> 
> BTW I had to look "boolean" up to refresh my memory on what it meant.  Of course I agree with you that we don't know "yes or no" whether masks work.  It's a big "maybe" and I'm glad you're finally conceding that point...or not.


The Whirling Dervish have stamina.


----------



## espola (May 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> You're funny, a couple weeks ago I tried to get you to stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable evidence that masks work, as I was willing to stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable evidence that masks don't work.  You adamantly refused.  I'm glad you've finally come around, but somehow I don't think its sincere and more a convenient change in opinion to rebut the argument at hand.
> 
> BTW I had to look "boolean" up to refresh my memory on what it meant.  Of course I agree with you that we don't know "yes or no" whether masks work.  It's a big "maybe" and I'm glad you're finally conceding that point...or not.


There is reliable evidence that masks reduce the transmission rate of airborne diseases.  Is that what you mean by "masks work"?


----------



## dad4 (May 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> You're funny, a couple weeks ago I tried to get you to stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable evidence that masks work, as I was willing to stipulate to the fact that there is no reliable evidence that masks don't work.  You adamantly refused.  I'm glad you've finally come around, but somehow I don't think its sincere and more a convenient change in opinion to rebut the argument at hand.
> 
> BTW I had to look "boolean" up to refresh my memory on what it meant.  Of course I agree with you that we don't know "yes or no" whether masks work.  It's a big "maybe" and I'm glad you're finally conceding that point...or not.


You still have the wrong answer.

The answer isn't "Maybe".  There is not doubt about it.  We know that masks reduce the odds of transmission.

The correct answer is "Somewhat.". Masks reduce the odds of transmission, but they do not reduce it to near zero.


----------



## watfly (May 20, 2021)

espola said:


> There is reliable evidence that masks reduce the transmission rate of airborne diseases.  Is that what you mean by "masks work"?


IDK is there reliable evidence of that?  Whether masks work or not is a better question for Dad4.  I know there is evidence masks reduce the spray of respiratory droplets (bigger no shit).  But beyond that i haven't seen anything compelling but I'm open to have my mind changed.


----------



## dad4 (May 20, 2021)

There is plenty of reliable evidence that masks reduce, but do not eliminate, transmission.

Yeesh.


----------



## Glitterhater (May 20, 2021)

This thread. OMG.

btw I've tried to get Dominic to canx my account to no avail- anyone know how to achieve that??


----------



## espola (May 20, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> This thread. OMG.
> 
> btw I've tried to get Dominic to canx my account to no avail- anyone know how to achieve that??


You can just stop posting.

Turn off the power, get up from your now-blank screen, put on your shoes, and take a walk around the neighborhood.  How many trees are there?  How many different types?  How big does a shrub have to be to be* considered to be** a tree?

*grammatically correct repeated phrase "to be"
**another "to be" separated from the others by a single word


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 20, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Open schools to those that wanted to go back. If they didn't have enough teachers to teach in person, have them Zoom into the classroom. If grandma lives at home, keep your kid at home. If you didn't see grandma for 15 months like us, send your kid to school if you are comfortable. Look at "real world" results before restricting activities such as outside sports, playgrounds, and hiking trails, etc. Oh yeah, don't lie to people and expect them to accept that "it was for their own good". Normally I'd call that common sense, but based on what we have seen at all levels of government, this qualifies as creative.


So all over the place everyman for himself. Sounds like a Republican solution.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 21, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> This thread. OMG.
> 
> btw I've tried to get Dominic to canx my account to no avail- anyone know how to achieve that??


@Glitterhater - Embrace the crazy, GH. Don't leave us. As with any population, increasing isolation leads to increasing extremism. I believe you are the last one around who will still come on this thread and say, "You guys still debating masks?". Do your part and continue to fight extremism. It's your patriotic duty.


----------



## crush (May 21, 2021)

@kickingandscreaming Hey bro, did you get any lotto tickets for the shot?  This is some kind of weird, right?  Let's just be honest.  Andrew is offering anyone from NY a free scratch for a chance at $5,000,000 and some other prizes if they Vax.  I personally think this is going to get a lot worse.  Gayle over at CBS had a chat with the Dr. F and it was so weird, yet kind of scary. 

Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the initiative which will *reward a $5 million first prize* - down to the smallest amount of $20, which means "The *chances of winning something in this program is one in nine,"* according to Cuomo's announcement wherein he further declared* "everyone wins"* given the efforts toward herd immunity. The pilot program starts Monday and is for those individuals who will receive either their first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine or the single-dose Johnson & Johnson jab at select designated locations.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (May 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> @Glitterhater - Embrace the crazy, GH. Don't leave us. As with any population, increasing isolation leads to increasing extremism. I believe you are the last one around who will still come on this thread and say, "You guys still debating masks?". Do your part and continue to fight extremism. It's your patriotic duty.


At least this thread has not spilled over into others.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 21, 2021)

As @dad4 states, we can easily see from excess deaths that many more people have died from COVID than would have died if COVID didn't exist. Of course, @watfly wasn't arguing that people weren't dying from COVID, just that the number may be overcounted as it appears to be in children. With that in mind, the recent behavior of the relationship between cases, hospitalizations, and deaths has changed in a way that is inconsistent with our most at risk of dying from COVID getting vaccinated at a very high rate.

Except for very early in the pandemic when testing was difficult to get, the graphs correlate pretty well with hospitalizations lagging cases by about a week or two and deaths lagging hospitalizations by about a week. However, since mid-April, we have had a 60% drop in cases/day and only a 22% drop in deaths per day. (762-595)/762. Hospitalizations are down 30%. Typically, the lag was about 3 weeks from case to death, and we are over 4 weeks into the drop in cases with no sign of deaths dropping at a corresponding rate to what we have seen previously in the pandemic. I can think of three reasons this is occurring. I am sure there are others. I'd have added that maybe the lag is longer, but then why do hospitalizations still appear to follow the pattern and deaths don't. The inconsistency is that those most at risk are vaccinated at a very high rate, so the death/case should be going down and not up as it has the past few weeks.

1) We are significantly under-reporting cases. I could see this happening to some extent as many who are getting COVID now are younger, have few symptoms or symptoms that are no more than a mild cold. Maybe they aren't testing.

2) We are reaching the "floor" of those dying from COVID faster than the graph indicates and those dying with COVID are having a significant effect on the deaths/case as the number of deaths from COVID has dropped. As an example, if we assume that 300 people die per day with COVID instead of from COVID, the drop in deaths per day from COVID over the same time period I mentioned above would be 36% instead of 22% ((762-300) - (595 - 300)) / (762 - 300). The same assumption (300 people per day dying with COVID instead of from COVID) in January would have had a much smaller effect on the rate of death as the number of deaths was much higher.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 21, 2021)

crush said:


> @kickingandscreaming Hey bro, did you get any lotto tickets for the shot?  This is some kind of weird, right?  Let's just be honest.  Andrew is offering anyone from NY a free scratch for a chance at $5,000,000 and some other prizes if they Vax.  I personally think this is going to get a lot worse.  Gayle over at CBS had a chat with the Dr. F and it was so weird, yet kind of scary.
> 
> Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the initiative which will *reward a $5 million first prize* - down to the smallest amount of $20, which means "The *chances of winning something in this program is one in nine,"* according to Cuomo's announcement wherein he further declared* "everyone wins"* given the efforts toward herd immunity. The pilot program starts Monday and is for those individuals who will receive either their first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine or the single-dose Johnson & Johnson jab at select designated locations.


Do I qualify since I got my vaccine? Seems like I'd have to get a second shot in NY. My expected return is negative if that's the case. Now if I can do it online and take a picture of my card, I'm happy to roll the dice. Also, shouldn't everyone who got a vaccine qualify? Again, procrastination wins the day.


----------



## dad4 (May 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Do I qualify since I got my vaccine? Seems like I'd have to get a second shot in NY. My expected return is negative if that's the case. Now if I can do it online and take a picture of my card, I'm happy to roll the dice. Also, shouldn't everyone who got a vaccine qualify? Again, procrastination wins the day.


Depending on your risk factors and how highly you personally value your life, you might be money up already.


----------



## crush (May 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Do I qualify since I got my vaccine? Seems like I'd have to get a second shot in NY. My expected return is negative if that's the case. Now if I can do it online and take a picture of my card, I'm happy to roll the dice. Also, shouldn't everyone who got a vaccine qualify? Again, procrastination wins the day.


I think everyone who took the shots should all be awarded with a free scratch.  My concern is the Vaxxers getting all mad at folks like me who took a more Holistic & Healthy approach instead of the shots.  Seriously, thier should be nothing to worry about on the vaxxer side, right?


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> As @dad4 states, we can easily see from excess deaths that many more people have died from COVID than would have died if COVID didn't exist. Of course, @watfly wasn't arguing that people weren't dying from COVID, just that the number may be overcounted as it appears to be in children.


Splitting hairs, but I don't have a strong opinion whether deaths are overcounted, I suspect they are because of the CDC's data that says most people had 2.5 comorbidities and some states admitted to counting covid positive murder victims.  I do believe that kids hospitalizations are overstated as is evidenced by the study posted (wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that its the same for adults).  Even if child deaths are overstated, its still a statistically irrelevant number as published (obviously not irrelevant to those that lost a child).

I actually agree with Dad4 that masks are somewhat effective, I just don't think there is compelling evidence either way in regards to masks in the real world.  I firmly believe that masks have been grossly oversold in terms of their effectiveness (I still wear one in public indoor spaces).  In the real world masks have limited effectiveness and I believe we've over relied on them.   When your told that masks are better than vaccines etc, you are misleading the public.  My biggest concern is that those that had symptoms, or known Covid, went out in public thinking their mask would protect others.   Also wearing masks after vaccination sends the wrong message about vaccinations.  Moving things outdoors is multi times more effective than masks.  CDC's own data shows that.

I'm not going to die on the hill of mask effectiveness.  I will die on the hill of having had kids back in school full time at the beginning of this school year.  I will condemn that policy at every turn for all the reasons previously mentioned.

PS: I do believe that cases are likely understated, and likely materially understated.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *There is plenty of reliable evidence that masks* reduce, but do not eliminate, transmission.
> Yeesh.





dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all. * They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


"There is plenty of reliable evidence that masks" "do not come close to eliminating transmission"--Dad$

So much for behavior.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> This thread. OMG.
> 
> btw I've tried to get Dominic to canx my account to no avail- anyone know how to achieve that??


Ask Husker.


----------



## dad4 (May 21, 2021)

crush said:


> I think everyone who took the shots should all be awarded with a free scratch.  My concern is the Vaxxers getting all mad at folks like me who took a more Holistic & Healthy approach instead of the shots.  Seriously, thier should be nothing to worry about on the vaxxer side, right?


The big question is people with weakened immune systems.

Autoimmune and transplant patients, for example, often need to take medicine to suppress their immune systems.  As a result, the vaccine may not protect them very well.  They can get the shot, but their immune system doesn’t build antibodies in response.  Or it builds some, but not enough.

So, you might be fine because of age and weight loss.  I might be fine, because of the vaccine.  But there is a category of people who are vulnerable but cannot be effectively vaccinated.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So all over the place everyman for himself. Sounds like a Republican solution.


Fascist.


----------



## Grace T. (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The big question is people with weakened immune systems.
> 
> Autoimmune and transplant patients, for example, often need to take medicine to suppress their immune systems.  As a result, the vaccine may not protect them very well.  They can get the shot, but their immune system doesn’t build antibodies in response.  Or it builds some, but not enough.
> 
> So, you might be fine because of age and weight loss.  I might be fine, because of the vaccine.  But there is a category of people who are vulnerable but cannot be effectively vaccinated.


The vaccines may also be less effective (at least against the India variant) in the very old with comordibities.  But that's true of flu too.  It's never going to be zero.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 21, 2021)

crush said:


> I think everyone who took the shots should all be awarded with a free scratch.  My concern is the Vaxxers getting all mad at folks like me who took a more Holistic & Healthy approach instead of the shots.  Seriously, thier should be nothing to worry about on the vaxxer side, right?


I'm not worried. You being very healthy is a big deal for surviving this virus. I just want a lottery ticket


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

COVID Charts Quiz
					

Test your knowledge of how government interventions affected the COVID-19 pandemic.




					www.covidchartsquiz.com


----------



## crush (May 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'm not worried. You being very healthy is a big deal for surviving this virus. I just want a lottery ticket


Looks like Santa Clara wants a report form businesses of all those who got Vaxxed and those who refuse to give out their private medical information out to some office manager who is most like a "you know what."  I can;t wait for more counties to follow their lead. 

Office manager:  hey Frances, did you get the shot bro?

France:  F you loser

Office Manager:  I'm telling on you.  I knew you were trouble when they hired you.  You're not a team player and you wont take one for the team. Here, put on this mask until you get your shots

Frances: No

Office Manager:  Take it up with HR then.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

crush said:


> Looks like Santa Clara wants a report form businesses of all those who got Vaxxed and those who refuse to give out their private medical information out to some office manager who is most like a "you know what."  I can;t wait for more counties to follow their lead.
> 
> Office manager:  hey Frances, did you get the shot bro?
> 
> ...


Don't mess with Francis.  He'll kill ya.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The big question is people with weakened immune systems.
> 
> Autoimmune and transplant patients, for example, often need to take medicine to suppress their immune systems.  As a result, the vaccine may not protect them very well.  They can get the shot, but their immune system doesn’t build antibodies in response.  Or it builds some, but not enough.
> 
> So, you might be fine because of age and weight loss.  I might be fine, because of the vaccine.  But there is a category of people who are vulnerable but cannot be effectively vaccinated.


So what would your suggestion be for these people?

Should society continue to get vaccinated, mask up and socially distance in order to protect this segment of the population?


----------



## crush (May 21, 2021)




----------



## espola (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Splitting hairs, but I don't have a strong opinion whether deaths are overcounted, I suspect they are because of the CDC's data that says most people had 2.5 comorbidities and some states admitted to counting covid positive murder victims.  I do believe that kids hospitalizations are overstated as is evidenced by the study posted (wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that its the same for adults).  Even if child deaths are overstated, its still a statistically irrelevant number as published (obviously not irrelevant to those that lost a child).
> 
> I actually agree with Dad4 that masks are somewhat effective, I just don't think there is compelling evidence either way in regards to masks in the real world.  I firmly believe that masks have been grossly oversold in terms of their effectiveness (I still wear one in public indoor spaces).  In the real world masks have limited effectiveness and I believe we've over relied on them.   When your told that masks are better than vaccines etc, you are misleading the public.  My biggest concern is that those that had symptoms, or known Covid, went out in public thinking their mask would protect others.   Also wearing masks after vaccination sends the wrong message about vaccinations.  Moving things outdoors is multi times more effective than masks.  CDC's own data shows that.
> 
> ...


When you heard that "Masks are better than vaccines", who did you hear it from and what did you take it to mean?


----------



## dad4 (May 21, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So what would your suggestion be for these people?
> 
> Should society continue to get vaccinated, mask up and socially distance in order to protect this segment of the population?


Vax, mask, and distance?  Yes.  Close schools and businesses? No.  

The difficult part is very high risk events/businesses.  Square dance conventions, boomer rock concerts, cruise lines and so on.  

Those may not be able to open safely without some kind of proof of vaccination.  The liability costs would kill you.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 21, 2021)

crush said:


> Looks like Santa Clara wants a report form businesses of all those who got Vaxxed and those who refuse to give out their private medical information out to some office manager who is most like a "you know what."  I can;t wait for more counties to follow their lead.
> 
> Office manager:  hey Frances, did you get the shot bro?
> 
> ...


Xi Jinping approves.


----------



## espola (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Vax, mask, and distance?  Yes.  Close schools and businesses? No.
> 
> The difficult part is very high risk events/businesses.  Square dance conventions, boomer rock concerts, cruise lines and so on.
> 
> Those may not be able to open safely without some kind of proof of vaccination.  The liability costs would kill you.


Insurance companies and their lawyers will not hold back going after someone who ignores mask or vaccination requirements and can be shown to have been the source of another person's illness.  At some point not getting vaccinated is like deciding you have the right to run red lights or drive on the left side of the road because --

FREEDUMB!


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

espola said:


> When you heard that "Masks are better than vaccines", who did you hear it from and what did you take it to mean?


Same person you heard it from, the CDC director,  I took it as stated, but I took it as nonsense.  When leadership continued to wear masks after they were vaccinated it also sent the message that masks are better than vaccines.  Neither was honest, or helpful.  We needed honesty, not theater.  I hope others thought of it as nonsense, as well, however, if you said that you were labeled "Team Virus", or possibly grandma killer.


----------



## dad4 (May 21, 2021)

crush said:


> Looks like Santa Clara wants a report form businesses of all those who got Vaxxed and those who refuse to give out their private medical information out to some office manager who is most like a "you know what."  I can;t wait for more counties to follow their lead.
> 
> Office manager:  hey Frances, did you get the shot bro?
> 
> ...


Like it or not, office places were some of the earliest known superspreader sites.  The HVAC systems can be locked down pretty tight, so there is not much fresh air.

So, Frances is putting her coworkers at risk.   You can deny it, or deal with it.


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Insurance companies and their lawyers will not hold back going after someone who ignores mask or vaccination requirements and can be shown to have been the source of another person's illness.


That's why we need Tort reform.


----------



## crush (May 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Insurance companies and their* lawyers* will not hold back going after someone who ignores mask or *vaccination requirements* and can be shown to have been the source of another person's illness. * At some point not getting vaccinated is like deciding you have the right to run red lights or drive on the left side of the road because --*
> 
> FREEDUMB!


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Like it or not, office places were some of the earliest known superspreader sites.  The HVAC systems can be locked down pretty tight, so there is not much fresh air.
> 
> So, Frances is putting her coworkers at risk.   You can deny it, or deal with it.


I see those Fellowes HEPA room air purifiers advertised on TV all the time now.  I wonder how effective those really are?  While I'm a little skeptical, the evidence on the HEPA filters seems pretty good.


----------



## Grace T. (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> That's why we need Tort reform.


1. Employers are the most likely target (which is why all the delay in opening up the offices).  Not much of a deep pocket in suing an individual if there's no insurance coverage and there's no insurance coverage for COVID.
2. At this point, there's a legit argument that if somebody gets sick due to failure to provide a vaccine they've assumed the risk. 
3. Infection cases are notoriously hard to prove, even in the HIV context.  Unless it's deliberate, causation is really really really tough.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Insurance companies and their lawyers will not hold back going after someone who ignores mask or vaccination requirements and can be shown to have been the source of another person's illness.


This is pretty funny considering how little information we can get on how people have contracted COVID and the number of asymptomatic / mildly symptomatic cases there are that *might* have been the source. However, we have a lot of lawyers so I won't be surprised if this is attempted.



espola said:


> At some point not getting vaccinated is like deciding you have the right to run red lights or drive on the left side of the road because --
> 
> FREEDUMB!


This is pretty funny, because it's ridiculous. While I was happy to get the vaccine, if I had a young child, I would seriously consider not having them take the vaccine as the risk to them due to COVID is well-known and extremely low. The vaccine is not without risk and it is likely very low also, but for children, is the unknown and likely low risk for the vaccine better than the known and extremely low risk of COVID?


----------



## Grace T. (May 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> This is pretty funny considering how little information we can get on how people have contracted COVID and the number of asymptomatic / mildly symptomatic cases there are that *might* have been the source. However, we have a lot of lawyers so I won't be surprised if this is attempted.
> 
> 
> This is pretty funny, because it's ridiculous. While I was happy to get the vaccine, if I had a young child, I would seriously consider not having them take the vaccine as the risk to them due to COVID is well-known and extremely low. The vaccine is not without risk and it is likely very low also, but for children, is the unknown and likely low risk for the vaccine better than the known and extremely low risk of COVID?


Yeah, it's hard to make out the case for the vaccine because the EU label is still on it....after that's removed it becomes easier to mandate it and say if you infect someone you are liable, particularly if you are violating a mask ordinance.  But proof is really really hard, there's the argument the person who got sick assumed the risk if they aren't vaccinated, and lawyers like to go after deep pockets.  It's more of a problem for employers than individuals.


----------



## espola (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Same person you heard it from, the CDC director,  I took it as stated, but I took it as nonsense.  When leadership continued to wear masks after they were vaccinated it also sent the message that masks are better than vaccines.  Neither was honest, or helpful.  We needed honesty, not theater.  I hope others thought of it as nonsense, as well, however, if you said that you were labeled "Team Virus", or possibly grandma killer.


I read the whole context, and it obviously wasn't nonsense at the time it was stated.


----------



## espola (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> That's why we need Tort reform.


An example of a legitimate tort is not why we need tort reform.


----------



## espola (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> I see those Fellowes HEPA room air purifiers advertised on TV all the time now.  I wonder how effective those really are?  While I'm a little skeptical, the evidence on the HEPA filters seems pretty good.


HEPA filters located in a room are in the same category as vaccine-reinforced antibodies in your bloodstream.  They can only work on the virus that is already present there.  If someone comes into your cubicle at work and breathes his infection in your direction, the HEPA filter in the corner won't do you any good.

A HEPA filter installed on the room's ventilation input might make more sense, but that still relies on people not bypassing it by walking the infection in through the door.


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

espola said:


> An example of a legitimate tort is not why we need tort reform.


If you spit in my soup or lick my hamburger when you're Covid positive then I don't have a problem with a lawsuit.  Otherwise were talking about an airborne virus and you have to assume the risk of catching it, particularly if you don't get vaccinated.  Life is full of risks, deal with it.


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

espola said:


> I read the whole context, and it obviously wasn't nonsense at the time it was stated.


Maybe my crystal ball was just working better than yours at the time.


----------



## dad4 (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> If you spit in my soup or lick my hamburger when you're Covid positive then I don't have a problem with a lawsuit.  Otherwise were talking about an airborne virus and you have to assume the risk of catching it, particularly if you don't get vaccinated.  Life is full of risks, deal with it.


If you don’t want ridiculous lawsuits over covid, then don’t recommend a covid policy of “hold people responsible for their actions.”

In this country, the way we hold people responsible for their actions is through the courts.  So, when you say “hold each person individually responsible”, you are asking to turn public health over to the tort lawyers.


----------



## espola (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Maybe my crystal ball was just working better than yours at the time.


What did your crystal ball have to say?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 21, 2021)

Are you guys still arguing about "You gave me COVID" lawsuits?
- @Glitterhater <in two months, probably>


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Insurance companies and their lawyers will not hold back going after someone who ignores mask or vaccination requirements and can be shown to have been the source of another person's illness.  At some point not getting vaccinated is like deciding you have the right to run red lights or drive on the left side of the road because --
> 
> FREEDUMB!


CooCoo


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you don’t want ridiculous lawsuits over covid, then don’t recommend a covid policy of “hold people responsible for their actions.”
> 
> In this country, the way we hold people responsible for their actions is through the courts.  So, when you say “hold each person individually responsible”, you are asking to turn public health over to the tort lawyers.


That's exactly the opposite of what I proposed, but thanks for misquoting me again.  Please refer back to my post regarding individual responsibility and accountability.


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

espola said:


> What did your crystal ball have to say?


That it was nonsense.  I thought we covered that already?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> If you spit in my soup or lick my hamburger when you're Covid positive then I don't have a problem with a lawsuit.  Otherwise were talking about an airborne virus and you have to assume the risk of catching it, particularly if you don't get vaccinated.  Life is full of risks, deal with it.


The pre-vax recovery rate doesn't exactly infer higher risk for corona infected and recovered folks who decline shots.  On the contrary, their next exposure to Corona will easily be met with the applicable response in the absence of a vaccine that has nothing to do with Corona.


----------



## espola (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Maybe my crystal ball was just working better than yours at the time.


Here is a fuller context of what was said during a hearing before a Senate Subcommittee --

_Redfield said if Americans wore face masks for several weeks, "we would bring this pandemic under control," because there is scientific evidence they work and they are our "best defense."

"I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine, because it may be 70%. And if I don't get an immune response, the vaccine is not going to protect me," Redfield said. "This face mask will."

Several experts contacted by CBS News agree with that assessment: Since vaccines do not guarantee an immune response, masks may be more effective at preventing COVID-19. The FDA has previously said it would approve a coronavirus vaccine that was at least 50% effective. While that could significantly reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths, it would not completely eliminate the disease or guarantee protection.









						CDC director says face masks may offer more protection against COVID than a vaccine. Here's what other experts say.
					

Health experts point out that we don't yet know how effective a vaccine will be – but we do know masks help stop the spread.




					www.cbsnews.com
				



_
And that was last September, after the big summer rush of cases, when the unmasked-in chief was still predicting it would all be over in a few weeks.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

Masks have been taking a beating.

First it was the sudden Establishment consensus that outdoor mask mandates had no scientific merit and should be repealed.

Then it was the CDC saying that the vaccinated don't need to wear masks.

Then, from this foundation, big stores like Trader Joe's, Walmart, and Costco all announced that the vaccinated would not be required to wear masks in their stores -- and added that they wouldn't be verifying anyone's vaccination status.

And yet in many places mask wearing is still overwhelmingly prevalent.

The wearers either don't believe their vaccines work, or they suddenly don't trust the CDC, or who knows what.

Or they've simply been so terrorized and propagandized that they can't think clearly.

Or the mask is a symbol of "science" and moral superiority, and they can't give that up.

The other day on Twitter someone asked people: why do you care if people are wearing masks outdoors? They've just been through a mass death event. Let them do what they want.

Well, of course I'll let people do stupid, pointless things if they want.

But here's why I care:

(1) If people did a rain dance after a long drought I wouldn't say, "Can you blame them? It's been a long drought."

(2) Many of the people still wearing masks, especially outdoors, are the very ones who spent the past year lecturing the rest of us about science. When they themselves act in defiance of science, it rightly makes us question what their true motivations had been all along.

(3) Masks don't seem to do anything. The "studies" purporting to show that they do either involve arbitrary dates (and thus exclude huge spikes that would be embarrassing to have to explain away) or are just models, in which the model assumes from the start that masks work.

What we know in reality is that we have chart after chart after chart of countries around the world in which, just before a massive spike, some headline read, "How Country X Defeated the Coronavirus," and the story generally involves masks. After the spike, no journalist revisits the issue and says, "Maybe we were being too simplistic when we attributed country X's success to masks. The Florida panhandle is mostly unmasked, and their health outcomes are no different from those in the rest of the state. Mandates have ended in numerous states, with no ill effects.

(4) Human communication involves more than words (and even words can be hard to make out with masks on). Masks disrupt the full spectrum of human communication, thereby opening the door to suspicion and misunderstanding.

(5) Are we seriously so debased that I actually have to argue in favor of seeing people's faces?

(6) Infants and toddlers need facial expressions for their proper development. We all know about the studies involving infants and a mother who is expressionless as opposed to a mother who is smiling. Infants and toddlers today are growing up in what must seem like a soulless dystopia.

(7) If you're wearing a mask outside in particular, you're either impervious to evidence or you're making some kind of statement, and neither possibility is particularly flattering. Nobody would do such a thing without at least a vague sense that it's scientifically justified. So that means they almost certainly look at my unmasked face and assume scientific ignorance. I don't particularly care for having that assumption made about me.

At first many of us wondered how the politicians would stand down from all these crazy restrictions and requirements. But now an equally compelling question is whether substantial segments of the American public itself will be willing to ditch these things.

I suspect the masks will come off in large numbers once a critical mass is reached. In other words, the remainder will fall quickly because I think many of those people complied in the first place out of a desire to do what was popular. As soon as masks cease to be popular, this group of people will rip them off pretty darn quickly.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

espola said:


> *Here is a fuller context of *what was said during a hearing before a Senate Subcommittee --
> 
> _Redfield said if Americans wore face masks for several weeks, "we would bring this pandemic under control," because there is scientific evidence they work and they are our "best defense."
> 
> ...


Yeah it's fuller of something alright.


----------



## dad4 (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Simple concept.  If grandma or any adult is concerned about getting sick from kids or anyone outside their family, then limit your exposure or do it only fully masked.  Masks work right?  Or if your concerned about getting it from school children, then don't send your kids to school.  If you get sick then you have just been held accountable for your actions and don't play the victim card.  Maybe personal responsibility is a better word.  Worry about your own behavior, and less the behavior of others.  Like I've said many times your behavior, and not the behavior or others, overwhelming impacts whether you get Covid (a car accident probably less so).  Your approach is "I don't want to be a victim, so please government control the behavior of others".  That's a selfish mentality.


Read your answer.

You never actually explain how you will hold someone accountable if they hold an event which results in other people dying of covid.

You bring up “personal responsiblility”, but the only person you’re willing to hold responsible is the one who is dead from covid.


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You bring up “personal responsiblility”, but the only person you’re willing to hold responsible is the one who is dead from covid.


A bit of an oversimplification and not exactly the words I would use, but yes, for the most part that's my position.  I'd make an exception for intentionally infecting someone, and maybe for gross recklessness.  Simply hosting an event or holding class with or without restrictions wouldn't qualify.  That's the great thing about choice.  You can choose to attend or not.  You can choose to stay 6 ft away, etc.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Read your answer.
> 
> You never actually explain how you will hold someone accountable if they hold an event which results in other people dying of covid.
> 
> You bring up “personal responsiblility”, but the only person you’re willing to hold responsible is the one who is dead from covid.


Assuming they died since there is a 97+% survival rate.


----------



## dad4 (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> A bit of an oversimplification and not exactly the words I would use, but yes, for the most part that's my position.  I'd make an exception for intentionally infecting someone, and maybe for gross recklessness.  Simply hosting an event or holding class with or without restrictions wouldn't qualify.  That's the great thing about choice.  You can choose to attend or not.  You can choose to stay 6 ft away, etc.


Ah.  Most of us use the phrase to mean that if I cause harm to you, then I should be held responsible for my actions.

Kind of a weird twist if "personal responsibility" means that you are being held responsible for something I did.


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ah.  Most of us use the phrase to mean that if I cause harm to you, then I should be held responsible for my actions.
> 
> Kind of a weird twist if "personal responsibility" means that you are being held responsible for something I did.


I was raised with personal responsibility being "don't blame others for the outcome of your choices".  Own your choices.  If that makes me weird, so be it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ah.  Most of us use the phrase to mean that if I cause harm to you, then I should be held responsible for my actions.
> 
> Kind of a weird twist if "personal responsibility" means that you are being held responsible for something I did.


From the Tower of babble


----------



## espola (May 21, 2021)

Science | AAAS
					






					science.sciencemag.org


----------



## dad4 (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> I was raised with personal responsibility being "don't blame others for the outcome of your choices".  Own your choices.  If that makes me weird, so be it.


You are asking for everyone else to ignore whether your choice is harming others.  Then you go on to blame them for being selfish, and pat yourself on the back for your supposed “personal responsibility”.  

You’ve got the whole notion of personal responsibility backwards.  It is meant to be about each of us taking ownership of the consequances of our actions.  It doesn’t mean I get to do whatever the hell I want, and then blame others for having the nerve to get in my way.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> I was raised with personal responsibility being "don't blame others for the outcome of your choices".  Own your choices.  If that makes me weird, so be it.


Exactly. If you don't feel safe going to a bar, on a cruise, going to a concert don't go.

You have the choice.


----------



## N00B (May 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’ve got the whole notion of personal responsibility backwards.  It is meant to be about each of us taking ownership of the consequances of our actions.  It doesn’t mean I get to do whatever the hell I want, and then blame others for having the nerve to get in my way.


Really? Is the above any different than what Watfly said?  I guess you could interpret his words as you stated.  I happen to think the intent was the same as what you said.  Then again I may be misinterpreting you.

Taking ownership of the consequences of your actions, not getting vaccinated and getting Covid, means you live with the consequences of your actions.  You don’t get to blame everyone else for getting in the way of your desire to do whatever the hell you want while unvaccinated... you do get to make that choice and live with the consequences, if any.

To use the tired example of driving a car... every time you get behind the wheel you chose to take on the risk of being in a collision.  If you’re drunk at the time and injure someone else or yourself, you live with those consequences (arrest, jail, injury or death). The other party isn’t to blame and yet still understood the risk that there are idiots out there putting them at risk.  In this extreme example, the innocent party does have someone to blame and a legal system to provide what redress is possible.

If you’re just in an accident, (ex: caused by a flat tire, mechanical failure, sneeze, animal darting out into the road unexpectedly) regardless of who hit who, both drivers assumed that risk, however small, and have to live with the consequences of their actions.

The ‘drunk driver’ in Covid infections, now that there is ample vaccine access, is gross negligence, intentional infecting another, or exposing others when known to be Covid positive.

The ‘accident’ is when someone who is pre-symptomatic accidentally exposes someone who is not vaccinated, immunocompromised, etc.  Both parties chose to be in a situation where they could potentially be exposed.  (Note the pre-symptomatic carrier is unlikely to be vaccinated or is immunocompromised, etc. and made the same choice with the same risks while it was unknown to them that they were infected)


----------



## watfly (May 21, 2021)

N00B said:


> Really? Is the above any different than what Watfly said?  I guess you could interpret his words as you stated.  I happen to think the intent was the same as what you said.  Then again I may be misinterpreting you.


If he didn't mischaracterize others' comments he would have nothing to debate.

I'm sitting here at a HS basketball game.  Half the spectators are masked.  For the life of me I don't understand how the school should be held liable for someone contracting Covid.  Everyone is here on their own free will.  They've assumed the risk.

I'm also sitting here wondering how these varsity basketball players don't look any taller than the U14 LAFC players my son played a couple weeks ago.


----------



## crush (May 22, 2021)

Holy cow fellas, I so scared.  Ok ok, I will obey!!!  This robot dude reminds me of EOTL, yikes!!!  Stay safe everyone 









						CDC vaccine enforcement robots ripped right out of "Elysium"
					

For more updates, visit: http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport  NaturalNews videos would not be possible without you, as always we remain passionately dedicated to our mission of educating people all over the world on the subject of natural healing remedies and personal liberty (food...




					www.brighteon.com


----------



## crush (May 22, 2021)

*cheat·er

a person who acts dishonestly in order to gain an advantage. *


----------



## crush (May 22, 2021)

This is classic and epic all in one from Pepe 









						VIRAL SPOOF VIDEO FROM THE WEB OF HITLER GOING MAD AND THE MASKED WORLD
					

Charlies FREE Newsletter https://DrCharlieWard.com  Get the latest information on 5G at https://bit.ly/2GFQVvQ   FREE 1oz SILVER COIN OFFER UK http://bit.ly/free-1oz-silver-coin  Order Charlies book here http://www.imjustcharlie.com  http…




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 22, 2021)

espola said:


> Science | AAAS
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What was it about the word gullible not being in any online dictionary?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are asking for everyone else to ignore whether your choice is harming others.  Then you go on to blame them for being selfish, and pat yourself on the back for your supposed “personal responsibility”.
> 
> You’ve got the whole notion of personal responsibility backwards.  It is meant to be about each of us taking ownership of the consequances of our actions.  It doesn’t mean I get to do whatever the hell I want, and then blame others for having the nerve to get in my way.


Communist word salad.


----------



## Grace T. (May 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> If he didn't mischaracterize others' comments he would have nothing to debate.
> 
> I'm sitting here at a HS basketball game.  Half the spectators are masked.  For the life of me I don't understand how the school should be held liable for someone contracting Covid.  Everyone is here on their own free will.  They've assumed the risk.
> 
> I'm also sitting here wondering how these varsity basketball players don't look any taller than the U14 LAFC players my son played a couple weeks ago.


State cup game yesterday near San Diego. About 1/2 masked too.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> State cup game yesterday near San Diego. About 1/2 masked too.


Wow, half? I was at an ECNL game in NorCal yesterday. IIRC, about 1 in 5 or fewer had masks on. We have another game today. I'll pay more attention.


----------



## Grace T. (May 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Wow, half? I was at an ECNL game in NorCal yesterday. IIRC, about 1 in 5 or fewer had masks on. We have another game today. I'll pay more attention.


Interestingly more of the players were masked than the adults walking to the field. Wonder if because adults still worried kids not vaccinated.


----------



## watfly (May 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Wow, half? I was at an ECNL game in NorCal yesterday. IIRC, about 1 in 5 or fewer had masks on. We have another game today. I'll pay more attention.


It seemed that the ratio was similar at our game.  It makes sense though given the demo of club soccer parents, most are vaccinated.  So if you follow the science you're not wearing a mask.  In my circle I'm only aware of one adult that hasn't gotten a vaccine and she is breast feeding.  We're on the fence about my pre-puberty son getting vaccinated.


----------



## espola (May 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> It seemed that the ratio was similar at our game.  It makes sense though given the demo of club soccer parents, most are vaccinated.  So if you follow the science you're not wearing a mask.  In my circle I'm only aware of one adult that hasn't gotten a vaccine and she is breast feeding.  We're on the fence about my pre-puberty son getting vaccinated.


"follow the demo" falls apart in small numbers.


----------



## dad4 (May 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> It seemed that the ratio was similar at our game.  It makes sense though given the demo of club soccer parents, most are vaccinated.  So if you follow the science you're not wearing a mask.  In my circle I'm only aware of one adult that hasn't gotten a vaccine and she is breast feeding.  We're on the fence about my pre-puberty son getting vaccinated.


Why assume that, if you follow the science you are unmasked?  No part of the science says masks cause damage.

I am fully aware that my mask today does about 1/20 as much good as it did before.  I can even tell you that my neighborhood is a low risk neighborhood in a low risk county of a low risk state.  

However, as long as 1/4 of adults near me are unvaccinated, I kind of like the politeness mask expectation.    So I wear mine, because it costs me nothing and might help.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interestingly more of the players were masked than the adults walking to the field. Wonder if because adults still worried kids not vaccinated.


I would like to ask as I am genuinely curious. Unfortunately, some may take that as judging so I keep my mouth shut. I know @crush knows I don't judge, but not everyone knows me like that


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why assume that, if you follow the science you are unmasked?  No part of the science says masks cause damage.
> 
> I am fully aware that my mask today does about 1/20 as much good as it did before.  I can even tell you that my neighborhood is a low risk neighborhood in a low risk county of a low risk state.
> 
> However, as long as 1/4 of adults near me are unvaccinated, I kind of like the politeness mask expectation.    So I wear mine, because it costs me nothing and might help.


The polite authoritarian? If only Lenin knew.


----------



## crush (May 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I would like to ask as I am genuinely curious. Unfortunately, some may take that as judging so I keep my mouth shut. I know @crush *knows I don't judge, but not everyone knows me like that*


No you dont bro.  I appreciate that about you.  I see you as genuine, honest and a good man who follows the rules.


----------



## watfly (May 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The polite authoritarian? If only Lenin knew.


Aka virtue signaling.

Outside, vaccinated, 6+ feet apart...zero risk.  Has nothing to do with politeness.  Hey honey, I'm going to wear two condoms, ya know, because I'm Mr. Polite.


----------



## dad4 (May 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> The polite authoritarian? If only Lenin knew.


Yeah.  We want you to have the mask on so you don't get frostbite in the gulag.

You sure you don't want to cut to the chase and start calling people Nazi when they disagree with you?  Leninism is kind of obscure.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yeah.  We want you to have the mask on so you don't get frostbite in the gulag.
> 
> You sure you don't want to cut to the chase and start calling people Nazi when they disagree with you?  Leninism is kind of obscure.


No, it was hyperbole. It's been boring on the board with things going so well now - that's a good thing - and I knew you wouldn't take it the wrong way, comrade.


----------



## crush (May 23, 2021)

*Las Vegas strip club offers vaccine clinic*

Patrons who show *proof of vaccination* at the club will reportedly be *treated* *to* a one-year* Platinum membership*, dances from a vaccinated *stripper*, complimentary* bottle of alcohol* and* tickets* to "Sexxy After Dark" with a limousine pickup.

Hey @Dominic, free Platinum membership with proof of Vax?  Come on man


----------



## dad4 (May 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> Aka virtue signaling.
> 
> Outside, vaccinated, 6+ feet apart...zero risk.  Has nothing to do with politeness.  Hey honey, I'm going to wear two condoms, ya know, because I'm Mr. Polite.


We have a 65% vax rate and minimal progress.   With a 65% vax rate and a 30% infection rate, daily new infections ought to be near zero.   Instead, cases are slowly inching down.  Something is going wrong.

That something is impatient fools who relax their behavior so quickly they undo 2/3 of the benefit we get from the vaccine.  Then the anti-vax fools copy them and the virus spreads.

Look at you.  You go to a HS basketball game which looks like a dress rehearsal for the Placer super spreader event from last summer.   Did you learn nothing?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> Aka virtue signaling.
> 
> Outside, vaccinated, 6+ feet apart...zero risk.  Has nothing to do with politeness.  Hey honey, I'm going to wear two condoms, ya know, because I'm Mr. Polite.


You know, I believe virtue signaling is often used for people being "disingenuous". I'm not going to put that on @dad4. I think he honestly believes his viewpoint. I respect that.


----------



## dad4 (May 23, 2021)

crush said:


> *Las Vegas strip club offers vaccine clinic*
> 
> Patrons who show *proof of vaccination* at the club will reportedly be *treated* *to* a one-year* Platinum membership*, dances from a vaccinated *stripper*, complimentary* bottle of alcohol* and* tickets* to "Sexxy After Dark" with a limousine pickup.
> 
> Hey @Dominic, free Platinum membership with proof of Vax?  Come on man


Crush, with no link there isn't a good way for us to make use of the offer.....


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 23, 2021)

crush said:


> *Las Vegas strip club offers vaccine clinic*
> 
> Patrons who show *proof of vaccination* at the club will reportedly be *treated* *to* a one-year* Platinum membership*, dances from a vaccinated *stripper*, complimentary* bottle of alcohol* and* tickets* to "Sexxy After Dark" with a limousine pickup.
> 
> Hey @Dominic, free Platinum membership with proof of Vax?  Come on man


Hey, this is almost my, "Set the vaccinations up at the door to the Casinos" idea. We needed to get those folks early as they are obviously willing to "gamble". If the casinos are open and they aren't vaccinated, they may be thinking, "I'll take my chances."


----------



## crush (May 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Crush, with no link there isn't a good way for us to make use of the offer.....


That's why we have Vegas Guy and Vegas Parent.  Hey, "two Vegas dudes", if I were to take one or two for the team, I think Vegas would be the place to do it, where?  Fat chance I win lotto in Ohio or NY so Vegas is the place to go for shots now.  I'll ask my pal Colin who lives out by Summerland.  He's playing poker again at the Winn today.  No vax for him yet but I bet he caves in.


----------



## watfly (May 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> You know, I believe virtue signaling is often used for people being "disingenuous". I'm not going to put that on @dad4. I think he honestly believes his viewpoint. I respect that.


It's one thing to honestly believe your viewpoint, its another to tell others how to live their life.  I think he is sincere in his concern for Covid, but that doesn't give him the right to tell others how to live their lives.  He and I took two different approaches to Covid, we both ended up with the same Covid results for our family.  Yet, he continues to criticize my and others behaviors that are different from his.  Did I ever criticize him for keeping his kids lock downed and hurting their mental health, no, because its not any of my business and I have no clue as how he actually handled things with his kids,  Sorry, but sanctimony is a character trait that I find incredibly rude, and not polite at all.  He doesn't know my circumstances, nor do I know his.  Like I said we come from two different backgrounds, which results in our two different approaches.  But he can't accept that.  I'm certainly not the poster child for politeness, but he wears a mask out of politeness, but then tells others how to live their lives.  If that's not "disingenuous", I don't know what is.

Dad4, I'm glad your approach worked for your family.  You know what's best for them, and did the right thing.  I respect that.  But please don't tell me how to live my life.

I shouldn't have to justify my actions, but just a heads up, we showed up late to the basketball game and had to sit on the opposition side.  I was a few feet away from a masked women, so I wore my mask.  2nd half we moved to our teams side to an empty section, the closest people were over 10 feet away unmasked.  I took off my mask,  When in Rome...plus my glasses were fogging up.

I don't judge people whether they wear a mask or not, I evaluate people on substantive behavior (of which politics is not).


----------



## Grace T. (May 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> It's one thing to honestly believe your viewpoint, its another to tell others how to live their life.  I think he is sincere in his concern for Covid, but that doesn't give him the right to tell others how to live their lives.  He and I took two different approaches to Covid, we both ended up with the same Covid results for our family.  Yet, he continues to criticize my and others behaviors that are different from his.  Did I ever criticize him for keeping his kids lock downed and hurting their mental health, no, because its not any of my business and I have no clue as how he actually handled things with his kids,  Sorry, but sanctimony is a character trait that I find incredibly rude, and not polite at all.  He doesn't know my circumstances, nor do I know his.  Like I said we come from two different backgrounds, which results in our two different approaches.  But he can't accept that.  I'm certainly not the poster child for politeness, but he wears a mask out of politeness, but then tells others how to live their lives.  If that's not "disingenuous", I don't know what is.
> 
> Dad4, I'm glad your approach worked for your family.  You know what's best for them, and did the right thing.  I respect that.  But please don't tell me how to live my life.
> 
> ...


This actually explains a lot of his motivation.  It's not really virtue signaling.  It's more of a reflex against an existential threat to his class.  It's also why I'm an apostate....I'm part of that class yet see through the BS and betray my own kind.  Article is a little over the top but hits many important notes.









						How science has been corrupted
					

The pandemic has revealed a darkly authoritarian side to expertise




					unherd.com


----------



## Grace T. (May 23, 2021)

Was at islands on the patio today (had the dog with me).  Fully vaxxed grandma with 2 grandkids sat next to us (she's was explaining to the kids what fully vaxxed was).  Grandkids were around 10 and 3 (3 year old in a high chair....go figure).  She kept lecturing them to keep their masks on, and when they ate, to hurry so that the masks could go back on.  Gave me the evil eye of sipping on my mai tai slowly and then getting up off the table without a mask despite that I was 10 feet away.  California is wacky.  I was frankly surprised to see 1/2 the crowd at state cup without masks.  Apparently similar dynamic at play for FL/NY.









						Back from Florida—To Stay? | City Journal
					

A lifelong New Yorker wonders if the city can still be home.




					www.city-journal.org


----------



## crush (May 23, 2021)

*Happy Day of Pentecost Everyone *
Miracles took place to honor this amazing day of celebration a long long time ago.  Had great celebration with my wife and some friends this morning.  Today is also 5/23/2021 {555}  Check Q drop 555. Also, today is five twenty three. Q drop 523 is?  I call today, "Second Chance Harvest." Oh yes, remember the great parting of the Red Sea to bring God's people out of slavery? This was the festival they would have every 50 years.  The jubilee it was called.  Every 50 years the bros would all meet up and forgive everyone their debts  A fresh start so to speak. In Acts Chapter 2, this Day of Pentecost was like none other. Read up on it. Talk about a great awaking to the masses  So today is a big day for someone like me. I told everyone we all need a second chance or for most of us, lot's of them. Might as well throw in some Mulligans as well. All you have to do is come clean and stop cheating and you will live in bliss   No one knows the times and dates, only the signs that come before the reign of Christ for 1000 years.  This will be epic and blow EVERYONE away and some of you will need to just admit that their is a God.


----------



## dad4 (May 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This actually explains a lot of his motivation.  It's not really virtue signaling.  It's more of a reflex against an existential threat to his class.  It's also why I'm an apostate....I'm part of that class yet see through the BS and betray my own kind.  Article is a little over the top but hits many important notes.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I can speak for myself, thanks.

If I say that I believe the pandemic has dragged on forever because some selfish people insist on not having rules, it means that I believe the pandemic has dragged on forever because some selfish people insist on not having rules.

No translation necessary.


----------



## crush (May 23, 2021)

*The choice is yours!!!*


----------



## Grace T. (May 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can speak for myself, thanks.
> 
> If I say that I believe the pandemic has dragged on forever because some selfish people insist on not having rules, it means that I believe the pandemic has dragged on forever because some selfish people insist on not having rules.
> 
> No translation necessary.


You’ve demonstrated repeatedly not having very much by way of self awareness. There’s a lot I admire about you but that definitely not one of them. The article also explains the motivations of the other side: it’s no more selfish than the people who are absolutely insisting on remaining covid free despite that viruses are part of our natural state of being and damn the businesses that might go under, the children who bore the burden or the ods suicides and delayed procedures which may result (plus btw we’re going to force the essential workers to take their risks).

but then to someone for whom this is religion it’s easy to see black and white: the holy and the damned.


----------



## espola (May 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Was at islands on the patio today (had the dog with me).  Fully vaxxed grandma with 2 grandkids sat next to us (she's was explaining to the kids what fully vaxxed was).  Grandkids were around 10 and 3 (3 year old in a high chair....go figure).  She kept lecturing them to keep their masks on, and when they ate, to hurry so that the masks could go back on.  Gave me the evil eye of sipping on my mai tai slowly and then getting up off the table without a mask despite that I was 10 feet away.  California is wacky.  I was frankly surprised to see 1/2 the crowd at state cup without masks.  Apparently similar dynamic at play for FL/NY.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This actually explains a lot of his motivation. It's not really virtue signaling. It's more of a reflex against an existential threat to his class. It's also why I'm an apostate....I'm part of that class yet see through the BS and betray my own kind. Article is a little over the top but hits many important notes.






*How science has been corrupted - UnHerd*
The pandemic has revealed a darkly authoritarian side to expertise





 unherd.com



Cue crying baby.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 23, 2021)

espola said:


> This actually explains a lot of his motivation. It's not really virtue signaling. It's more of a reflex against an existential threat to his class. It's also why I'm an apostate....I'm part of that class yet see through the BS and betray my own kind. Article is a little over the top but hits many important notes.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hahaha! I saw this and thought of two people. Any ideas who?

Authority has always been located in hierarchical structures of expertise, guarded by accreditation and long apprenticeship, whose members develop a “reflexive loathing of the amateur trespasser”.

This

The phrase “follow the science” has a false ring to it. That is because science doesn’t _lead_ anywhere. It can illuminate various courses of action, by quantifying the risks and specifying the tradeoffs. But it can’t make the necessary choices for us. By pretending otherwise, decision-makers can avoid taking responsibility for the choices they make on our behalf.

Increasingly, science is pressed into duty as authority. It is invoked to legitimise the transfer of sovereignty from democratic to technocratic bodies, and as a device for insulating such moves from the realm of political contest.

Over the past year, a fearful public has acquiesced to an extraordinary extension of expert jurisdiction over every domain of life. A pattern of “government by emergency” has become prominent, in which resistance to such incursions are characterised as “anti-science”.


----------



## Grace T. (May 23, 2021)

Looks like India has finally turned the corner but the anecdotal evidence is that the Indian variant is more severe than others having struck down groups previously not affected as much including pregnant women and people in their 40s and 50s

taiwan has lost its shield. Previously unaffected due to failure to control its border its now at 400 cases and may be looking at a South Korea scenario of 400 cases per day

whatever is going on in Asia seems to have broken through whatever prior immunity they had with Japan Thailand and Vietnam affected (Singapore still spared)

Europe with the exception of the nordics that have been unaffected so far (Norway Finland) and a handful of others on the down slope

all South America a mess including sadly Chile which did so well with vaccines but relied on the China vaccines but it seems to have at least helped with deaths

South Africa is beginning to rise again which puts an end to the herd immunity theory. South Africa variant may be a toothless tiger in comparison to the India one


----------



## watfly (May 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Hahaha! I saw this and thought of two people. Any ideas who?
> 
> Authority has always been located in hierarchical structures of expertise, guarded by accreditation and long apprenticeship, whose members develop a “reflexive loathing of the amateur trespasser”.
> 
> ...


Those words struck me as well.  Science isn't an absolute.   Science doesn't come with any inherent authority or credibility, despite what zealots and academics would have you believe.  We shouldn't follow the science.  We should consider the science, as well as other factors.

Science is clearly at a crossroads given the events of the last year.  Science has been damaged like never before, due to the so-called experts.  I will say it for the umpteenth time, science can tell you what happened, but it can't predict the future.  I'm not saying to ignore science, but take it with a huge grain of salt, and always question it.  Be particularly skeptical when the science message is put into the hands of one individual like Fauci.  He became the prophet of a new religion.  Don't dare to question the prophet.


----------



## Grace T. (May 23, 2021)

Looks like myocarditis is beginning to be acknowledged to be a rare but potential side effect of the mRNA vaccines particularly fir young and adolescent males.  Dr John Campbell did a video summarizing the concern. It may end up the mRNA vaccines get recommended for younger women and the adenovirus vaccines for younger men.


----------



## dad4 (May 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like India has finally turned the corner but the anecdotal evidence is that the Indian variant is more severe than others having struck down groups previously not affected as much including pregnant women and people in their 40s and 50s
> 
> taiwan has lost its shield. Previously unaffected due to failure to control its border its now at 400 cases and may be looking at a South Korea scenario of 400 cases per day
> 
> ...


why do you say Asia had some kind of immunity?  Not much evidence for it.  You seem to like the theory mostly because it supports your “it’s all impossible” narrative.

It is a simpler explanation to say that Asia has behavior.  A set of behavior that reduces R by 75% is enough to handle a disease with R0=3, but not enough to handle a disease with R0=5.  So wild type covid can’t grow there because it ends up with Rt below 1.  The India variant is more highly transmissible, which results in Rt being above 1.

In bad news for us, a variant which can grow in a 75% behavior reduction can also grow in a 75% immune population.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can speak for myself, thanks.
> 
> If I say that I believe the pandemic has dragged on forever because some selfish people insist on not having rules, it means that I believe the pandemic has dragged on forever because some selfish people insist on not having rules.
> 
> No translation necessary.


"some selfish people" = most of the world. Be careful. This sounds like a mile marker on the road to misanthropy that one of your consistent supporters has already followed to its natural end.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 24, 2021)

watfly said:


> Those words struck me as well.  Science isn't an absolute.   Science doesn't come with any inherent authority or credibility, despite what zealots and academics would have you believe.  We shouldn't follow the science.  We should consider the science, as well as other factors.
> 
> Science is clearly at a crossroads given the events of the last year.  Science has been damaged like never before, due to the so-called experts.  I will say it for the umpteenth time, science can tell you what happened, but it can't predict the future.  I'm not saying to ignore science, but take it with a huge grain of salt, and always question it.  Be particularly skeptical when the science message is put into the hands of one individual like Fauci.  He became the prophet of a new religion.  Don't dare to question the prophet.


It almost always comes down to power and ego. How can "this" <whatever is in front of us> be used to increase the power and prestige of my associated group with the obvious side-effect of reducing the power and isolating another group. The divide drives extremism in both "sides". It's a human condition. The only real "solution" is engagement with a commitment to understanding and willingness to allow for other perspectives - even those we find distasteful or worse.


----------



## crush (May 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It almost always comes down to power and ego. How can "this" <whatever is in front of us> be used to increase the power and prestige of my associated group with the obvious side-effect of reducing the power and isolating another group. The divide drives extremism in both "sides". It's a human condition. The only real "solution" is engagement with a commitment to understanding and willingness to allow for other perspectives - even those we find distasteful or worse.


Nothing can stop what is here bro.  It's about the kids, not the pandemic or this or that.  Kids rule!!!









						EYE DROP MEDIA - THE STORM
					






					eyedropmedia.com


----------



## crush (May 24, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yeah.  We want you to have the mask on so you don't get frostbite in the gulag.
> 
> You sure you don't want to cut to the chase and start calling people Nazi when they disagree with you?  Leninism is kind of obscure.


PCR is obscure at best.  Please continue.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We have a 65% vax rate and minimal progress.   With a 65% vax rate and a 30% infection rate, daily new infections ought to be near zero.   Instead, cases are slowly inching down.  Something is going wrong.
> 
> That something is impatient fools who relax their behavior so quickly they undo 2/3 of the benefit we get from the vaccine.  Then the anti-vax fools copy them and the virus spreads.
> 
> Look at you.  You go to a HS basketball game which looks like a dress rehearsal for the Placer super spreader event from last summer.   Did you learn nothing?


Your behavior is based on the use of the PCR test that does not detect the presence of a virus.  The PCR only picks up genetic sequences of corona virus.  Doesn't tell us when those genetic sequences showed up in your nasal passage.  Not that your credibility can be restored at his point.


----------



## crush (May 24, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> PCR is obscure at best.  Please continue.


The guy who invented the test said his test is not for what's it's being used for today.  BTW, he died 2019, right before the Rona.  This is insane times we live in.  One of my best pals and smartest cats I know, won;t talk to me because he knows he made a huge mistake.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> You know, I believe virtue signaling is often used for people being "disingenuous". I'm not going to put that on @dad4. I think he honestly believes his viewpoint. I respect that.


Virtue signaling folks usually live in glass houses.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

crush said:


> The guy who invented the test said his test is not for what's it's being used for today.  BTW, he died 2019, right before the Rona.  This is insane times we live in.  One of my best pals and smartest cats I know, won;t talk to me because he knows he made a huge mistake.


Wonder what the narrative would have been if Mullis was still alive.  Is your friend a Lobster?


----------



## crush (May 24, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Wonder what the narrative would have been if Mullis was still alive.  *Is your friend a Lobster?*


No bro.   This guy is brainwashed unlike anyone I know.  I say this with complete sadness too.  I swear he's not the same guy I've known for 33 years. He's my mentor so to speak.  Super cool bro too.  He was born Jewish.  His dad lied to him about being power of attorney of his estate, which was valued at around $2,220,000.00.  His dad married his evil step mom when he was just 13.  His mom left his dad because he was mean and abusive and she met someone who loved her.  She moved to Oregon and opened up a Bed & Breakfast.  His old man taught him that money is only a tool.  Well, the old man died and guess what Bruddah?


----------



## Grace T. (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> why do you say Asia had some kind of immunity?  Not much evidence for it.  You seem to like the theory mostly because it supports your “it’s all impossible” narrative.
> 
> It is a simpler explanation to say that Asia has behavior.  A set of behavior that reduces R by 75% is enough to handle a disease with R0=3, but not enough to handle a disease with R0=5.  So wild type covid can’t grow there because it ends up with Rt below 1.  The India variant is more highly transmissible, which results in Rt being above 1.
> 
> In bad news for us, a variant which can grow in a 75% behavior reduction can also grow in a 75% immune population.


For the behavior theory to hold up it would need to apply across Asia but somehow exclude the Phillipines and Indonesia.  What that behavior is would be very head scratching because it’s not masks....India having very different usage than Japan. The other thing we know from seroprevalence studies in India is 30-50% depending on region were infected in the first wave but did not fall as seriously ill as that rate would suggest in the west.  Then there’s also Africa which until now had also been spared (Southern Africa excluded)


----------



## Desert Hound (May 24, 2021)

watfly said:


> Those words struck me as well.  Science isn't an absolute.   Science doesn't come with any inherent authority or credibility, despite what zealots and academics would have you believe.  We shouldn't follow the science.  We should consider the science, as well as other factors.
> 
> Science is clearly at a crossroads given the events of the last year.  Science has been damaged like never before, due to the so-called experts.  I will say it for the umpteenth time, science can tell you what happened, but it can't predict the future.  I'm not saying to ignore science, but take it with a huge grain of salt, and always question it.  Be particularly skeptical when the science message is put into the hands of one individual like Fauci.  He became the prophet of a new religion.  Don't dare to question the prophet.


One has to be skeptical of science due to the fact that so much of it is funded by government. Government usually has a particular point of view and research funding is based on that point of view. 

Then take the fact that science is always evolving as researches find/discover/learn new things.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I kind of like the politeness mask expectation. So I wear mine, because it costs me nothing and might help.


At this stage for you, it means nothing. 

You are vaccinated. So it is not going to help. 

Since most people have been vaccinated, when I see someone wearing one now I just shake my head and think...you are vaccinated, take off the silly mask and live your life.


----------



## dad4 (May 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For the behavior theory to hold up it would need to apply across Asia but somehow exclude the Phillipines and Indonesia.  What that behavior is would be very head scratching because it’s not masks....India having very different usage than Japan. The other thing we know from seroprevalence studies in India is 30-50% depending on region were infected in the first wave but did not fall as seriously ill as that rate would suggest in the west.  Then there’s also Africa which until now had also been spared (Southern Africa excluded)


Perhaps the Philippines, India, and Indonesia have a behavioral culture and economic status that is subtly different from the culture and economy in China, Korea, and Japan.  

I know those six countries are almost indistinguishable, but maybe, just maybe, there is some teeny little distinction that you’ve overlooked.

Like, say, number of people per household and median income per capita.  Something obscure you might not notice when visiting.


----------



## crush (May 24, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (May 24, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> "some selfish people" = most of the world. Be careful. This sounds like a mile marker on the road to misanthropy that one of your consistent supporters has already followed to its natural end.


It’s quite difficult to feel affection for someone who values their morning latte more than their neighbor.  

Misanthropy is a natural consequence of that realization.  Not a happy consequence, admittedly.


----------



## dad4 (May 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> At this stage for you, it means nothing.
> 
> You are vaccinated. So it is not going to help.
> 
> Since most people have been vaccinated, when I see someone wearing one now I just shake my head and think...you are vaccinated, take off the silly mask and live your life.


You and I do not agree about the definition of zero.  I think of 0.05 and 0.00 as different numbers.  You do not.


----------



## Grace T. (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Perhaps the Philippines, India, and Indonesia have a behavioral culture and economic status that is subtly different from the culture and economy in China, Korea, and Japan.
> 
> I know those six countries are almost indistinguishable, but maybe, just maybe, there is some teeny little distinction that you’ve overlooked.
> 
> Like, say, number of people per household and median income per capita.  Something obscure you might not notice when visiting.


It’s not economics.  Vietnam Laos and Cambodia are not on par with Japan or even China. They are nearer to parity with the Philippines. So why did they behave like Japan instead of the phillipines?  It’s not masks...the usage there is also very different and in the Philippines was very rigorous. Government policy?  Cambodia welcomed in cruise ships to debark and its leadership was as much deniers at first as Brazil.  I suppose it could be cultural but I am suspicious of cultural arguments which strip down to the lowest common to try and rationalize. I find the prior coronavirus exposure theory more compelling: it explains why all of Asia and Africa and much of the Mid East (excepting notably isolated Israel) was spared in the first wave, why the second wave could take off in India despite the high seroprevalence and why there have been reports of reinfection in people who did not have serious cases the first time around.  Another alternative is genetics but again it would have to hold true from Malaysia to Japan.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You and I do not agree about the definition of zero.  I think of 0.05 and 0.00 as different numbers.  You do not.


As usual you are not good at understanding risk. 

I believe you are in your 40s and healthy. That age group constitutes just 3% of all covid deaths. In other words unless you are very sick in that age range you have no real risk. 

Add to the fact you have your vaccine that is 95% effective and your risk drops even further.

And add in to the fact that a substantial percentage of the population is now vaccinated drops your risk again. 

So outside of having no concept of risk, or virtue signaling, or being paranoid, there is no reason for you to run around wearing a mask. 

But you are a true believer...and just a few weeks ago told us all that you would likely wear a mask during upcoming flu seasons. And that kind of outlines your mindset.


----------



## dad4 (May 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s not economics.  Vietnam Laos and Cambodia are not on par with Japan or even China. They are nearer to parity with the Philippines. So why did they behave like Japan instead of the phillipines?  It’s not masks...the usage there is also very different and in the Philippines was very rigorous. Government policy?  Cambodia welcomed in cruise ships to debark and its leadership was as much deniers at first as Brazil.  I suppose it could be cultural but I am suspicious of cultural arguments which strip down to the lowest common to try and rationalize. I find the prior coronavirus exposure theory more compelling: it explains why all of Asia and Africa and much of the Mid East (excepting notably isolated Israel) was spared in the first wave, why the second wave could take off in India despite the high seroprevalence and why there have been reports of reinfection in people who did not have serious cases the first time around.  Another alternative is genetics but again it would have to hold true from Malaysia to Japan.


What evidence is there for extensive prior exposure?  You really think 2 billion people in Asia were exposed to a closely related virus but no one noticed?  

Seems likely that such a virus would have made some serious waves in the Asian nursing homes.  I mean, if a new cold virus had run all over Japan, their nursing homes would have had a spike in hospitalizations that required a serious investigation.


----------



## espola (May 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> At this stage for you, it means nothing.
> 
> You are vaccinated. So it is not going to help.
> 
> Since most people have been vaccinated, when I see someone wearing one now I just shake my head and think...you are vaccinated, take off the silly mask and live your life.


Have you figured out how vaccines work yet?


----------



## Grace T. (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What evidence is there for extensive prior exposure?  You really think 2 billion people in Asia were exposed to a closely related virus but no one noticed?
> 
> Seems likely that such a virus would have made some serious waves in the Asian nursing homes.  I mean, if a new cold virus had run all over Japan, their nursing homes would have had a spike in hospitalizations that required a serious investigation.


There are 6 other coronaviruses. Even excluding the rare ones there are 3 endemic to Asia and coronavirus infections are more prevalent in Asia than in Europe or the Americas. Further see studies posted on this thread re prior T cell immunity.


----------



## Grace T. (May 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There are 6 other coronaviruses. Even excluding the rare ones there are 3 endemic to Asia and coronavirus infections are more prevalent in Asia than in Europe or the Americas. Further see studies posted on this thread re prior T cell immunity.


Ps the funny thing is with Europe (excluding Norway and Finland and some others like Greece) now in decline, most countries of the world (China Australia New Zealand excepted) will wind up in the roughly the same band with east Asia doing a little better and South America doing a little worse but pretty much everywhere else having been hit the same...vaccine rollout making the most material difference.


----------



## Grace T. (May 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ps the funny thing is with Europe (excluding Norway and Finland and some others like Greece) now in decline, most countries of the world (China Australia New Zealand excepted) will wind up in the roughly the same band with east Asia doing a little better and South America doing a little worse but pretty much everywhere else having been hit the same...vaccine rollout making the most material difference.


I still think BTW if the IFR had been closer to 3%, struck everyone equally and with an R0 of 2 or higher with airborne and surface transmission, we would have gotten a scenario closer to Contagion.  At 25%IFR, that movie is not possible...people starve when food production collapses and MREs run out, the power and internet don't stay on, police and fire services (not just garbage) breaks down and there is not shop open (let alone there to reopen) at the end to buy a prom dress.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

crush said:


> No bro.   This guy is brainwashed unlike anyone I know.  I say this with complete sadness too.  I swear he's not the same guy I've known for 33 years. He's my mentor so to speak.  Super cool bro too.  He was born Jewish.  His dad lied to him about being power of attorney of his estate, which was valued at around $2,220,000.00.  His dad married his evil step mom when he was just 13.  His mom left his dad because he was mean and abusive and she met someone who loved her.  She moved to Oregon and opened up a Bed & Breakfast.  His old man taught him that money is only a tool.  Well, the old man died and guess what Bruddah?


What?


----------



## dad4 (May 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s not economics.  Vietnam Laos and Cambodia are not on par with Japan or even China. They are nearer to parity with the Philippines. So why did they behave like Japan instead of the phillipines?  It’s not masks...the usage there is also very different and in the Philippines was very rigorous. Government policy?  Cambodia welcomed in cruise ships to debark and its leadership was as much deniers at first as Brazil.  I suppose it could be cultural but I am suspicious of cultural arguments which strip down to the lowest common to try and rationalize. I find the prior coronavirus exposure theory more compelling: it explains why all of Asia and Africa and much of the Mid East (excepting notably isolated Israel) was spared in the first wave, why the second wave could take off in India despite the high seroprevalence and why there have been reports of reinfection in people who did not have serious cases the first time around.  Another alternative is genetics but again it would have to hold true from Malaysia to Japan.


India?  Conventional wisdom explanation for India is that religious festivals make for great super spreader events.  You had a sudden change in behavior about a month before all hell broke loose.  Right up there with Michigan for proof that behavior matters.

Makes more sense than immunity.   It’s hard to argue that in February India had immunity, but that stopped being true in April.


----------



## crush (May 24, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> What?


No power of attorney and old man had $10,000,000 to manage, not $2mill.  Don't put your trust in money is what my friend is learning .  Dude lied to his own son for reasons only step mother and attorney know of and won't share.  My pal was banking on $500,000, so he could  quit his job.  Instead he got a bag full of lies and worse, everyday he wakes up to work, he's reminded in rush hour traffic, "why?" And "what if."


----------



## dad4 (May 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> As usual you are not good at understanding risk.
> 
> I believe you are in your 40s and healthy. That age group constitutes just 3% of all covid deaths. In other words unless you are very sick in that age range you have no real risk.
> 
> ...


You would understand the flu season masks better if you had more concern for vulnerable people outside your own household.  It has very little to do with whether I personally am at risk.

It isn‘t that I have no concept of risk.  It is just that my concept of risk includes the risk to other people.  Yours does not.


----------



## Grace T. (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> India?  Conventional wisdom explanation for India is that religious festivals make for great super spreader events.  You had a sudden change in behavior about a month before all hell broke loose.  Right up there with Michigan for proof that behavior matters.
> 
> Makes more sense than immunity.   It’s hard to argue that in February India had immunity, but that stopped being true in April.


The seroprevalence in India has been measured at 30-50% after the first outbreak...yet this outbreak is worse....either we believe they are nearing 90%, or there  has been a breakthrough in prior immunity.  We won't know for sure until the issue is studied in several months but there have been reports of reinfections in India, particularly among people who did not get it seriously the first time around.  Or it could be that both the PCR and antibody tests are off.

Religious festivals in India are held primarily outdoors.  The other culprit cited has been BJP rallies but also held outdoors for the most part.  A likelier explanation, which corresponds to the US corn cycle and the outbreak in the Midwest, and the European spring planting cycle, is agriculture.  Areas that rely on human fertilizer got hit harder and earlier than those that didn't.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You would understand the flu season masks better if you had more concern for vulnerable people outside your own household.  It has very little to do with whether I personally am at risk.
> 
> It isn‘t that I have no concept of risk.  It is just that my concept of risk includes the risk to other people.  Yours does not.


trying to make a case for the long history, of mask wearing to combat infectious diseases, in the absence of, is where you lose credibility.....again.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

_Source: Jim Lo Scalzo/Pool via AP_


Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), a doctor, is likely to keep getting under the skin of the COVID police for refusing to get vaccinated, as he's already contracted the virus. The senator called into John Catsimatidis' radio show on Sunday morning. 


The entire clip is worth listening to, but what people are noticing is Paul's following exchange. Castimatidis asked the senator if employees should be "compelled" to have the vaccine. Sen. Paul provided his insight on that:



> You know, I think medical decisions in a free society, each individual assumes their own risk, and the thing is, if someone chooses not to be vaccinated, and you are vaccinated, they're not a risk to you, they're taking a risk for themselves. So I think really medical decisions should be private.
> In fact we used to all believe that. There's a law called HIPAA that really says we're really not supposed to pry into the affairs, the medical affairs, of our employees, so I think really in the end we need to have a little bit more of a relaxed atmosphere here, because I think people, particularly on the left, they're saying 'oh, I could never go to a restaurant if someone next to me wasn't vaccinated.' It's like well it shouldn't matter to you at all.
> If you've been vaccinated you're protected and that's their business if they have a religious or philosophic reason, maybe they just think the pandemic's over and don't want to get vaccinated, or maybe they're like me. *I already had it, I mean, should they force people to get vaccinated who had COVID and survived? They would first have to prove that the vaccine is better than being infected. *I'm not saying that it's wise to get infected on purpose, but a lot of us got infected whether we wanted to or not, about 100 million of us got infected.* And I think that we should have a choice whether we get a vaccine or not because frankly all the studies show that I have just as good of immunity as the people who've been vaccinated.*
> *Now in a year's time if people say 'oh, people that have had it naturally are getting infected a lot more than people who've been vaccinated,' it's--I may change my mind. But until they show me evidence that people that've already had the infection are dying in large numbers, or being hospitalized or getting very sick, I just made my own personal decision that I'm not getting vaccinated because I've already had the disease and I have natural immunity now. *
> But that should be my--you know in a free country, you would think people would honor, you know, the idea that each individual would get to make their medical decisions and it wouldn't be big brother coming in telling me what I have to do. Are they also gonna tell me I can't have a cheeseburger for lunch? Are they gonna tell me I have to eat carrots only, and cut my calories? All of that is probably good for me, but I don't think Big Brother oughta tell me to do it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

crush said:


> No power of attorney and old man had $10,000,000 to manage, not $2mill.  Don't put your trust in money is what my friend is learning .  Dude lied to his own son for reasons only step mother and attorney know of and won't share.  My pal was banking on $500,000, so he could  quit his job.  Instead he got a bag full of lies and worse, everyday he wakes up to work, he's reminded in rush hour traffic, "why?" And "what if."


Yike$!!!!  It happens.  I have a few friends that went through something similar.


----------



## crush (May 24, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> _Source: Jim Lo Scalzo/Pool via AP_
> 
> 
> Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), a doctor, is likely to keep getting under the skin of the COVID police for refusing to get vaccinated, as he's already contracted the virus. The senator called into John Catsimatidis' radio show on Sunday morning.
> ...


Free will is what I call it.  I choose to eat super healthy and that makes me healthy by choice.  I want cheeseburger and fries but the more I say no the better I look and and feel.  My wife loves how I.we.t from triple chin to one chin.  6 pac is next but it's super hard to keep.  I told myself if I fast for 5 days I will get to 175 and 30 waist Bruddah man.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You would understand the flu season masks better if you had more concern for vulnerable people outside your own household.  It has very little to do with whether I personally am at risk.
> 
> It isn‘t that I have no concept of risk.  It is just that my concept of risk includes the risk to other people.  Yours does not.


Lumber has become too expensive to build homes.  Glass houses are more affordable wouldn't you say?


----------



## crush (May 24, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Lumber has become too expensive to build homes.  Glass houses are more affordable wouldn't you say?


400% increase.  Gas has doubled and will soon hit $6 and climbing.  In fact, go electric bro.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

crush said:


> Free will is what I call it.  I choose to eat super healthy and that makes me healthy by choice.  I want cheeseburger and fries but the more I say no the better I look and and feel.  My wife loves how I.we.t from triple chin to one chin.  6 pac is next but it's super hard to keep.  I told myself if I fast for 5 days I will get to 175 and 30 waist Bruddah man.


American's are always looking for the Silver bullet.  They don't realize that they are free to choose and well equipped to mitigate and handle infections of all kinds.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

crush said:


> 400% increase.  Gas has doubled and will soon hit $6 and climbing.  In fact, go electric bro.


Once the virtue signaling crowd figures out that high gas prices make their alt energy plans cost prohibitive, thing$ will change.


----------



## dad4 (May 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The seroprevalence in India has been measured at 30-50% after the first outbreak...yet this outbreak is worse....either we believe they are nearing 90%, or there  has been a breakthrough in prior immunity.  We won't know for sure until the issue is studied in several months but there have been reports of reinfections in India, particularly among people who did not get it seriously the first time around.  Or it could be that both the PCR and antibody tests are off.
> 
> Religious festivals in India are held primarily outdoors.  The other culprit cited has been BJP rallies but also held outdoors for the most part.  A likelier explanation, which corresponds to the US corn cycle and the outbreak in the Midwest, and the European spring planting cycle, is agriculture.  Areas that rely on human fertilizer got hit harder and earlier than those that didn't.


The festivals are outdoors, but crowded beyond belief.   If you place a few million people in the holy section of the Ganges, they will need to rub elbows.  Look at the pictures.  You get a very large scale version of the Italian soccer stadium outbreak, which was also outdoors.

Add to that the need to travel to get to the festival.  The festival is outdoors.  The dinners and hotel stays are not.


----------



## watfly (May 24, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Once the virtue signaling crowd figures out that high gas prices make their alt energy plans cost prohibitive, thing$ will change.


Solar for residences and small businesses is cost effective and efficient, one of the few alt energies that are.  Net Energy Metering is what makes it cost effective; however the California Democrats sponsored AB1139 would eliminate NEM, which would eliminate rooftop solar.  The Green Movement is just a facade for the left, at the end of the day their allegiance lies with big corporations, in this case the big utility companies.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

Restrictions are falling left and right at this point.

Vegas casinos are back to 100%, and with no mask requirements. Huge sporting events, and even concerts, are coming back (Foreigner performed in Orlando last week, for example).

And yet, even though the scolds' predictions of "superspreader" effects failed to materialize from the Super Bowl, the college football national championship, or that packed Texas Rangers game we were all warned about, they're still predicting it, and they're still wrong.

A couple of examples, courtesy of Ian Miller.

Back on May 8 the Atlanta Braves had their first full stadium since all this started. Nobody was asked about vaccination status.

Sportswriter Peter King wrote on Twitter, above a picture of the event:

"570,615 deaths. Nothing to see there."

Since King is a mainstream sports journalist, he still -- still! -- thinks the Fauci "mitigation measures" actually do something, and defying them leads to mass death.

Well, two weeks later, here's the massive carnage caused by that event:









​


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

Here's something else from two weeks ago: the Canelo Alvarez fight in Texas, a fight attended by over 73,000 people. No indoor boxing event in history has been attended by more people. Nobody checked vaccination status, and not many masks.

Let's check in on the devastation this event surely caused:








​






The ongoing wickedness in Canada and Europe is predicated on pretending that these things aren't happening. They have to pretend that mass events haven't been going on in the U.S. without any discernible effect.

You'd think the populations of those countries would be demanding an explanation as to why they're still locked down, but, well, I guess they didn't value living as much as you and I do.

Despite the groupthink in entertainment, academia, and (most of) government, there's a clear momentum in favor of restoring normality.

But the long-term effects of what's been done to us are many, and severe.

Now that they've discovered how compliant and unquestioning the general public truly is, who knows what the politicos and what we laughingly call the "public health" establishment will get up to next.

Not to mention vaccine passports, the ongoing wreckage to the economy, inflation fears that this time even the Establishment is worried about, assaults on civil liberties, a school system based on propaganda, and plenty more.

​
Tom Woods


----------



## Desert Hound (May 24, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> ​
> ​
> Here's something else from two weeks ago: the Canelo Alvarez fight in Texas, a fight attended by over 73,000 people. No indoor boxing event in history has been attended by more people. Nobody checked vaccination status, and not many masks.
> 
> ...


You would think that by now they (the powers that be) would say OK, it is over. Go back to living life.


----------



## watfly (May 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You would think that by now they (the powers that be) would say OK, it is over. Go back to living life.


It's simply a lack of leadership, and a fear of deviating from group think.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You would think that by now they (the powers that be) would say OK, it is over. Go back to living life.


Ironic how the follow the Science crowd mounted a full on attack on Science.  "The elevation of Moral posturing over truth".


----------



## Desert Hound (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You would understand the flu season masks better if you had more concern for vulnerable people outside your own household.


Most of the vulnerable are vaccinated. Those that are not choose not to be vaccinated. Their choice right? 

Further when months ago and longer when someone went to a restaurant they assumed the risk of going there. Presumably the ones who were worried didn't go. So again you have a situation where people made the choice to go and be with others who also made that choice. You seem to assume there was a large contingent at these places that were worried/scared to go...but went anyway. 


You wanted to unreasonably shut it all down or pretend everything can be done outside. 

And today? You are running around wearing a mask that does you no good, nor does it protect anyone else. 

The pandemic is over. You can go out again. Ditch the useless mask. Hell even the CDC has finally come around and said vaccinated people don't need it inside or outside. Not sure why you continue.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

MAY 7, 20209:19 AMUPDATED A YEAR AGO
*Misleading claim: Woodstock took place in the middle of a pandemic*
By Reuters Staff
7 MIN READ









						Misleading claim: Woodstock took place in the middle of a pandemic
					

Correction 2: Reuters Fact Check team initially rated this claim as True, and later revised that to Partly True. After listening carefully to feedback from readers and reviewing the timeline of the Hong Kong flu pandemic that started in 1968, we are correcting this verdict...




					www.reuters.com


----------



## dad4 (May 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Most of the vulnerable are vaccinated. Those that are not choose not to be vaccinated. Their choice right?
> 
> Further when months ago and longer when someone went to a restaurant they assumed the risk of going there. Presumably the ones who were worried didn't go. So again you have a situation where people made the choice to go and be with others who also made that choice. You seem to assume there was a large contingent at these places that were worried/scared to go...but went anyway.
> 
> ...


So, if the pandemic is over, why do we still have over ten thousand new cases and over one hundred deaths each day? 

More to the point, the new India variant is much more transmissible.  About 2.5 times as high.  If that’s true, it pushes the herd immunity threshold from about 75% to about 90%.  It also seems to have some ability to reinfect people who have some natural immunity.    A 35% vax rate and a 60% infection rate are probably not sufficient to deal with that.  Or, if you’re from my county, a 65% vax rate and a 30% infection rate aren’t quite enough, either.   You need something else.  

Masks would probably do it.  Greater vax rates would definitely do it.  Celebrating early will not do it.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, if the pandemic is over, why do we still have over ten thousand new cases and over one hundred deaths each day?


You know at 100 deaths per day you are now in the range of the flu...and not even a bad flu season. 

You and your variants. First it was the UK one. Then maybe the S. African one. Then you thought the CA variant was a problem. You had other doomsday scenarios I don't remember at this time as well. 

Either way deaths are now in the range of average flu territory and still dropping. 

Your need for a mask is non existent. As we watch more and more states, etc drop masks, and mask usage dropping daily, cases continue to fall. 

You aren't saving anyone, nor protecting yourself wearing a mask.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, if the pandemic is over, why do we still have over ten thousand new cases and over one hundred deaths each day?


Not sourced.


----------



## Grace T. (May 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You know at 100 deaths per day you are now in the range of the flu...and not even a bad flu season.
> 
> You and your variants. First it was the UK one. Then maybe the S. African one. Then you thought the CA variant was a problem. You had other doomsday scenarios I don't remember at this time as well.
> 
> ...


He's prob right about the India variant given that it doesn't seem to be holding things back in Asia anymore (for whatever reason).  Still, deaths are on the floor, which is what we should care about. Even the India variant doesn't change that.   We can't protect against every infection.  It's over (at least in the US).


----------



## Desert Hound (May 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He's prob right about the India variant given that it doesn't seem to be holding things back in Asia anymore (for whatever reason).  Still, deaths are on the floor, which is what we should care about. Even the India variant doesn't change that.   We can't protect against every infection.  It's over (at least in the US).


Cases in India are dropping rapidly now.


----------



## Grace T. (May 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Cases in India are dropping rapidly now.


They started somewhere around 40% seroprevalence (as high as 50% in some cities). 40%- reinfection of some asymptomatics and mild cases + whatever they have now. They must be close to 65% in some cities.  Given our experience that’s what you’d expect.


----------



## dad4 (May 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They started somewhere around 40% seroprevalence (as high as 50% in some cities). 40%- reinfection of some asymptomatics and mild cases + whatever they have now. They must be close to 65% in some cities.  Given our experience that’s what you’d expect.


Any word on how severe the reinfections are?  You'd hope there is at least a lessening of severity, even if you still get sick.

Makes a big difference to us.  Some states here, more than half of our immunity is from prior infections.


----------



## Grace T. (May 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Any word on how severe the reinfections are?  You'd hope there is at least a lessening of severity, even if you still get sick.
> 
> Makes a big difference to us.  Some states here, more than half of our immunity is from prior infections.


Anecdotal since given the meltdown they aren’t tracking it well but reinfection are gen reported mild except among very old. The uk thinks it’s equivalent to 1 mRNA shot.


----------



## crush (May 25, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 25, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 25, 2021)




----------



## crush (May 25, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Any word on how severe the reinfections are?  You'd hope there is at least a lessening of severity, even if you still get sick.
> 
> Makes a big difference to us.  Some states here, more than half of our immunity is from prior infections.


Imagine that.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Anecdotal since given the meltdown they aren’t tracking it well but reinfection are gen reported mild except among very old. The uk thinks it’s equivalent to 1 mRNA shot.


Harry and Megan's UK?


----------



## dad4 (May 25, 2021)

Couple of decent wapo articles today.

The first is on evaluating risk for the unvaccinated.

Basic argument is that you can’t really measure total cases/total pop.  Unvaccinated people are where the virus is, so you have to measure unvaccinated cases/unvaccinated pop.   

For CA, that means your risk as an unvaccinated person is about double the reported rate.  The number of cases is still about 1500 per day, but almost all of that is unvax.  So the unvax community is at about 6 daily cases per 100K and the vax community is close to 0.

The other good article was on the lab leak theory.  Wapo is now treating it as mainstream, and published a “why we got it wrong” article.  They don’t quite say “we dismissed it because Trump said it”, but they come close.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Couple of decent wapo articles today.
> 
> The first is on evaluating risk for the unvaccinated.
> 
> ...


Measuring risk by PCR means no credibility.


----------



## dad4 (May 25, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Imagine that.


No one said that natural immunity doesn’t exist.  It’s just a painful way to go about solving the problem.  There is that uncomfortable phase when cases spike and you try, and fail, to keep covid out of the nursing homes.  (I know.  You don’t like talking about that part.)


----------



## Grace T. (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Couple of decent wapo articles today.
> 
> The first is on evaluating risk for the unvaccinated.
> 
> ...


Yet on social media the commentators who raised the issue were banned or shadow banned because “Trump said it” and called racist for questioning the prc. Moreover, it is beginning to look like that the virus may have been enhanced (aka engineered) and while not quite a bio weapon also did not naturally occur. Yet another failure of the establishment and put up another point for the scrappy naysayers


----------



## dad4 (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yet on social media the commentators who raised the issue were banned or shadow banned because “Trump said it” and called racist for questioning the prc. Moreover, it is beginning to look like that the virus may have been enhanced (aka engineered) and while not quite a bio weapon also did not naturally occur. Yet another failure of the establishment and put up another point for the scrappy naysayers


I think inclinations towards believing a lab leak (including mine) had more to do with a knee-jerk distrust of PRC than anything else.  Not so much scrappy naysayers as just understanding that you can’t trust any country which puts their sociopath on their currency.  

Intersting that CW is moving from lab leak of a sample to lab leak of a manipulated sample.  My bet had been on the first, but evidence is leaning towards the second.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No one said that natural immunity doesn’t exist.


First your Mask mea culpa.  Now this?   



dad4 said:


> It’s just a painful way to go about solving the problem.  There is that uncomfortable phase when cases spike and you try, and fail, to keep covid out of the nursing homes.  (I know.  You don’t like talking about that part.)


No, that's Cuomo who doesn't want to talk about keeping covid out of Nursing homes.


----------



## dad4 (May 25, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> First your Mask mea culpa.  Now this?
> 
> No, that's Cuomo who doesn't want to talk about keeping covid out of Nursing homes.


Change the topic when losing, again?  Ok.

Happy to blame Cuomo and Levine for reintroduction into nursing homes.  No excuse for it.  

No mask mea culpa needed.  I said they work, the science backs me up.  See espola's article in Science, among others.  

You might consider a revision to your anti-mask and anti-mRNA stances.  Neither of those opinions is aging well.


----------



## Grace T. (May 25, 2021)

COVID-19 Mitigation Practices and COVID-19 Rates in Schools: Report on Data from Florida, New York and Massachusetts
					

This paper reports on the correlation of mitigation practices with staff and student COVID-19 case rates in Florida, New York, and Massachusetts during the 2020-2021 school year. We analyze data collected by the COVID-19 School Response Dashboard and focus on student density, ventilation...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## Grace T. (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> COVID-19 Mitigation Practices and COVID-19 Rates in Schools: Report on Data from Florida, New York and Massachusetts
> 
> 
> This paper reports on the correlation of mitigation practices with staff and student COVID-19 case rates in Florida, New York, and Massachusetts during the 2020-2021 school year. We analyze data collected by the COVID-19 School Response Dashboard and focus on student density, ventilation...
> ...


My guess is that ultimately masks (in general) will be shown to have reduced cases overall by 5-15%....would have been more had they rolled out the N95s.


----------



## Grace T. (May 25, 2021)

As I was saying prior....


----------



## Desert Hound (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yet on social media the commentators who raised the issue were banned or shadow banned because “Trump said it” and called racist for questioning the prc. Moreover, it is beginning to look like that the virus may have been enhanced (aka engineered) and while not quite a bio weapon also did not naturally occur. Yet another failure of the establishment and put up another point for the scrappy naysayers


It wasn't just social media. It was the main stream press that eagerly said that lab theory was "thoroughly debunked". Their reporting on that issue and most others is done through a partisan lens. And as a result you get don't get good reporting on many issues of the day.


----------



## espola (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As I was saying prior....


"...not greater than the background rate normally seen..."


----------



## Grace T. (May 25, 2021)

espola said:


> "...not greater than the background rate normally seen..."


Yeah, I agree with that.  But the condition, particularly in the young, can go undiagnosed....so I think like the blot clots and J&J the number may be a bit undercounted.  I'm glad they aren't doing a pause for this, but other nations (including the UK, Australia, the Czech Republic and South Korea) have also signaled a concern.  

My guess is it ultimately goes into the insert,  but isn't a particularly concerning side effect (at least relative to COVID which can also cause the condition in the young).


----------



## espola (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, I agree with that.  But the condition, particularly in the young, can go undiagnosed....so I think like the blot clots and J&J the number may be a bit undercounted.  I'm glad they aren't doing a pause for this, but other nations (including the UK, Australia, the Czech Republic and South Korea) have also signaled a concern.
> 
> My guess is it ultimately goes into the insert,  but isn't a particularly concerning side effect (at least relative to COVID which can also cause the condition in the young).


"...also cause..."?

If you want something more to worry about you can look up the number of traffic accident deaths among the post-vaccinated.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My guess is that ultimately masks (in general) will be shown to have reduced cases overall by 5-15%....would have been more had they rolled out the N95s.


I heard that masks were better than vaccines. <cue espola>


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It wasn't just social media. It was the main stream press that eagerly said that lab theory was "thoroughly debunked". Their reporting on that issue and most others is done through a partisan lens. And as a result you get don't get good reporting on many issues of the day.


They ruined another word, "debunked". When will they ever learn?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Their reporting on that issue and most others is done through a partisan lens. And as a result you get don't get good reporting on many issues of the day.


I don't think the role this plays in the division we have in our country can be overestimated. When a particular segment of the population feels the mainstream media is partisan against them, they will find another source and it may be one even more partisan in the other direction. The pandemic coverage has made it even more obvious. Diversity of race and religion is important but equally important is the diversity of thought and perspective. I don't get the feeling we are moving in a good direction in this regard.


----------



## dad4 (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My guess is that ultimately masks (in general) will be shown to have reduced cases overall by 5-15%....would have been more had they rolled out the N95s.


Mask mandates buy you a 10% reduction is about right.   The key is understanding whether a 10% reduction is significant.

It's just under 1/10 of what we needed to solve the problem.  Log(.9) / log (.33)

Or, to look at it from another angle, mask mandates were the difference between LA peaking at 45% or 50%.  Saved you about 2500 deaths or so.

So, a significant help.


----------



## Grace T. (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Mask mandates buy you a 10% reduction is about right.   The key is understanding whether a 10% reduction is significant.
> 
> It's just under 1/10 of what we needed to solve the problem.  Log(.9) / log (.33)
> 
> ...


Had the government said 10% at the beginning (instead of masks are better than vaccines) you think the public would have had such a buyin?  The essential workers wouldn't have freaked out at the beginning when everyone was panicking?  What if they had been honest about cloth masks not working nearly as well as N95 for individual protection?  

";part of the problem"....we can ask again: with the benefit of hindsight, what would have your solution to the rest of it been?  Still toying with Australia?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Change the topic when losing, again?  Ok.
> 
> Happy to blame Cuomo and Levine for reintroduction into nursing homes.  No excuse for it.
> 
> ...





dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  *They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


Mask never have and never will come close to eliminating transmission.  We've known that for decades.  Unless you were trained for Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Warfare, like I was, how could you not be suckered into the DIY mask narrative.  Not sure why you quoted Espola's article.  That article was DOA.  Comparing COVID-19 NPI to itself is about as unscientific as it gets.  Perhaps some aging will help.  Or maybe we will see more radical NPI like death threats toward those who post dissenting facts.


----------



## dad4 (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Had the government said 10% at the beginning (instead of masks are better than vaccines) you think the public would have had such a buyin?  The essential workers wouldn't have freaked out at the beginning when everyone was panicking?  What if they had been honest about cloth masks not working nearly as well as N95 for individual protection?
> 
> ";part of the problem"....we can ask again: with the benefit of hindsight, what would have your solution to the rest of it been?  Still toying with Australia?


Masks themselves are more like 45%.   Mask mandates get a lower percentage because you are only measuring the degree to which the mandate changed behavior.  

But, whether it is 10% or 45%, it is still a significant reduction.

Curious if you have any way to measure the overall effectiveness of just moving outside.  It’s around 95%, for those things which can move.  But not everything is movable, so it is lower.  Then you need to correct for fact that being outside doesn’t help with in-home transmission.  

I think you can end up with another 40% reduction or so, if you are aggressive about what you move outdoors.  (A 95% reduction to 2/3 of what we do is a 64% reduction, but it applies only to half of the steps in the chain.)

Counting your 10% estimate, those two alone put us at R= 3 * .6 * .9 = 1.62.   One more 40% reduction would have been enough to drop R below 1.  Or, more likely, ten more 5% reductions.  

Unpleasant, but we could have done it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Masks themselves are more like 45%.   Mask mandates get a lower percentage because you are only measuring the degree to which the mandate changed behavior.
> 
> But, whether it is 10% or 45%, it is still a significant reduction.
> 
> ...


And yet......



dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  *They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


And then there is the problem with the PCR test that detect genetic sequences of Corona and not the virus.  Who knew we were gonna shut down the world economy because of Boogers.


----------



## Grace T. (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Unpleasant, but we could have done it.


That’s been the issue for a while. You’ve consistently been given the opportunity to explain how and consistently have declined


----------



## dad4 (May 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s been the issue for a while. You’ve consistently been given the opportunity to explain how and consistently have declined


You realize you posted that in response to an explanation of how we could have gotten more than half the way to a solution, right?



You know what the other parts are.  We did some of them. Mass production and distribution of N95 masks.  Fines for indoor gatherings.  End non-essential airplane travel.   Enforce restrictions on non-essential travel.   Closing indoor gathering spaces like bars, restaurants, and casinos.  Moving office work to zoom.  Actually enforce the mask rules.  Open outdoor spaces and encourage their use.

If all that adds up to at least a 40% reduction, I’m done.  It was possible to reduce R below 1.  We just didn’t do it.

Embarassingly, we still aren’t handling it well.  Our current behavior and current vax rates would probably mean R>1 if it were winter.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You realize you posted that in response to an explanation of how we could have gotten more than half the way to a solution, right?
> 
> 
> 
> ...





dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  *They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


Speaking of Embarassing


----------



## watfly (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Curious if you have any way to measure the overall effectiveness of just moving outside.  It’s around 95%, for those things which can move.  But not everything is movable, so it is lower.  Then you need to correct for fact that being outside doesn’t help with in-home transmission.


It seems your saying being outside was better than masks...is that correct?  I firmly believe that and believed that from the very beginning.  It just made common sense.  Masks may be effective, but are grossly overrated.  Moving outside is very effective, but grossly underrated.

Part of the lockdown was the closing of beaches, parks, hiking trails and other open spaces.  An expert from Scripps said that surfing was dangerous and that the sea breeze could carry the virus quite a distance.  People were ticketed for paddle boarding and having a burrito on the rocks by the beach.  Beaches reopened but you couldn't stand still you had to be moving and couldn't sit on the beach.  I was threatened with a ticket for surf fishing.   These restrictions were absurd and didn't even remotely pass the smell test.  Credibility was shot from the beginning.  Staying at home was the worst advice ever. 

 A lockdown will never work in the future.  First time shame on you, 2nd time shame on me.


----------



## Grace T. (May 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You realize you posted that in response to an explanation of how we could have gotten more than half the way to a solution, right?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You’ve never been able to explain the dad plan for indoor gatherings.

I’m curious how you’d handle the airline industry

I’m double curious how you’d handle the non-essential travel stuff not to mention the border.

we did close the indoor dining and did the masks in la as well as office to zoom. It didn’t work. And mask compliance in Los Angeles public indoors was 98%. What does enforce masks mean...outdoors and how?

the govt closed outdoor spaces in California but was pretty good in reversing itself but also didn’t help the winter wave.

short of the travel ban and indoor gathering restriction this is Los Angeles’ plan


----------



## dad4 (May 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> It seems your saying being outside was better than masks...is that correct?  I firmly believe that and believed that from the very beginning.  It just made common sense.  Masks may be effective, but are grossly overrated.  Moving outside is very effective, but grossly underrated.
> 
> Part of the lockdown was the closing of beaches, parks, hiking trails and other open spaces.  An expert from Scripps said that surfing was dangerous and that the sea breeze could carry the virus quite a distance.  People were ticketed for paddle boarding and having a burrito on the rocks by the beach.  Beaches reopened but you couldn't stand still you had to be moving and couldn't sit on the beach.  I was threatened with a ticket for surf fishing.   These restrictions were absurd and didn't even remotely pass the smell test.  Credibility was shot from the beginning.  Staying at home was the worst advice ever.
> 
> A lockdown will never work in the future.  First time shame on you, 2nd time shame on me.


CDC is getting a lot of well deserved flak for their delay in encouraging outdoor opening.  

But that is no reason to declare you know better.  You didn't.  Last March, you thought it was tiny and would stay small.  

The restrictions, flawed as they were, probably saved hundreds of thousands of lives.  

Fatality rates early in the epidemic were a lot worse than they are now.  We just didn't have any good treatments.  If the same number of infections had all happened in April/May last year, far more of those infections would have been fatal.


----------



## crush (May 26, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> CDC is getting a lot of well deserved flak for their delay in encouraging outdoor opening.
> 
> But that is no reason to declare you know better.  You didn't.  Last March, you thought it was tiny and would stay small.
> 
> ...


Well I didn't think the outbreak was tiny and would stay small.  Back in February I even bought a months long supply  of groceries knowing things would be shut down for month and told the planning committee for my kid's school that school would not return until the following school year, if then.  I called the Los Angeles summer wave and warned of a more dangerous winter wave to come.

I also said the outdoor restrictions were pointless and I took the kids out to exercise every day in the park (without masks) during the initial lockdown (how kiddo finally learned to juggle)  If anything I too overestimated the degree of transmissibility outdoors, but I always thought the shutdown of outdoor dining was a mistake and my friend (after a dialogue with me) published her article to move everything outside in the WP.

So, yes some of us did know better thank you very much.


----------



## crush (May 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well I didn't think the outbreak was tiny and would stay small.  Back in February I even bought a months long supply  of groceries knowing things would be shut down for month and told the planning committee for my kid's school that school would not return until the following school year, if then.  I called the Los Angeles summer wave and warned of a more dangerous winter wave to come.
> 
> I also said the outdoor restrictions were pointless and I took the kids out to exercise every day in the park (without masks) during the initial lockdown (how kiddo finally learned to juggle)  If anything I too overestimated the degree of transmissibility outdoors, but I always thought the shutdown of outdoor dining was a mistake and my friend (after a dialogue with me) published her article to move everything outside in the WP.
> 
> So, yes some of us did know better thank you very much.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> But that is no reason to declare you know better. You didn't. Last March, you thought it was tiny and would stay small.


We didn't know in March since that was the absolute beginning. We had a very good idea of where the risk was by mid May. And yet the idiotic rules persisted. 

You don't know we saved hundreds of thousands of lives either. You just hope based on your belief that is the fact.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 26, 2021)

"On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the latest data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, which are infections among people who have been fully vaccinated against the disease. Yet again, the data suggests that the vaccines are highly effective against infection, as well as severe disease and death. The data breakdown also hints that vaccines are winning the race against variants, which don’t seem to be breaking through at higher rates than expected."









						COVID cases after vaccination are still very rare—variants aren’t changing that
					

Numbers are an undercount, but they offer more data that vaccines are highly effective.




					arstechnica.com


----------



## dad4 (May 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well I didn't think the outbreak was tiny and would stay small.  Back in February I even bought a months long supply  of groceries knowing things would be shut down for month and told the planning committee for my kid's school that school would not return until the following school year, if then.  I called the Los Angeles summer wave and warned of a more dangerous winter wave to come.
> 
> I also said the outdoor restrictions were pointless and I took the kids out to exercise every day in the park (without masks) during the initial lockdown (how kiddo finally learned to juggle)  If anything I too overestimated the degree of transmissibility outdoors, but I always thought the shutdown of outdoor dining was a mistake and my friend (after a dialogue with me) published her article to move everything outside in the WP.
> 
> So, yes some of us did know better thank you very much.


Wow.  Don’t break your arm patting yourself on the back, there.

Your opposition to outdoor restrictions is a side effect of the fact that you opposed every single NPI they tried.  

So, yes, you opposed the bad ideas.  You opposed the good ones, too.  You were as brilliant and foresightful as a rubber stamp that says “NO”.


----------



## watfly (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> But that is no reason to declare you know better.  You didn't.  Last March, you thought it was tiny and would stay small.


You're uncanny, again a complete mischaracterization of what I said in March.  I always said Covid was serious.  What I said was don't believe the doomsday predictions of millions of deaths and endless exponential growth of cases and deaths.  Tiny and small never came out of my mouth.  Still if you look at the numbers the risk of death is small, particularly for those under 60.

And I can absolutely declare I knew better.  Unlike you I'm not using hindsight and hypotheticals.  I actually conducted my behavior the entire time as if moving things outdoors was effective against Covid.  It was just common sense.  I even said that the riots and protests didn't significantly contribute to the spread and was laughed at by people on both sides of the debate.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 26, 2021)

This is worth a read about how the partisan press has changed its tune regarding covid origins. 









						Thread by @DrewHolden360 on Thread Reader App
					

Thread by @DrewHolden360: THREAD That the Covid pandemic could’ve leaked from a lab in Wuhan went from terrible, racist conspiracy theory to plausible overnight for the mainstream media, without a shred of accoun...…




					threadreaderapp.com


----------



## Grace T. (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Wow.  Don’t break your arm patting yourself on the back, there.
> 
> Your opposition to outdoor restrictions is a side effect of the fact that you opposed every single NPI they tried.
> 
> So, yes, you opposed the bad ideas.  You opposed the good ones, too.  You were as brilliant and foresightful as a rubber stamp that says “NO”.


As usual with your mischaracterizations of others. I supported the travel ban and though the restrictions should be more severe on us citizens. I supported the state mask mandates for indoors but thought cloth masks were a mistake. I thought they should have surge closures of indoor dining bars and gyms. I thought keeping airlines running was a mistake. I supported hardening of the nursing homes and condemned cuomo while others defended him. I thought the office buildings should be closed, though much less restrictive than they were.  I thought people should be advised indoor transmission was risky so they could make up their own mind. So no not nothing.  My approach was more like the Florida approach or (with hardening of nursing homes/borders/indoor mask state mandates) Sweden.

so yup pat myself on the back. I was far more right about things than either you or your experts. Didn’t nail everything...but my record was close to 80%.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *The restrictions,* *flawed as they were,* *probably* saved hundreds of thousands of lives.


Only in your world do flawed restrictions save hundreds of thousands of lives....probably.  Lol! 



dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  *They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


And then there is your mask mea culpa


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

watfly said:


> It seems your saying being outside was better than masks...is that correct?  I firmly believe that and believed that from the very beginning.  It just made common sense.  Masks may be effective, but are grossly overrated.  Moving outside is very effective, but grossly underrated.
> 
> Part of the lockdown was the closing of beaches, parks, hiking trails and other open spaces.  An expert from Scripps said that surfing was dangerous and that the sea breeze could carry the virus quite a distance.  People were ticketed for paddle boarding and having a burrito on the rocks by the beach.  Beaches reopened but you couldn't stand still you had to be moving and couldn't sit on the beach.  I was threatened with a ticket for surf fishing.   These restrictions were absurd and didn't even remotely pass the smell test.  Credibility was shot from the beginning.  Staying at home was the worst advice ever.
> 
> A lockdown will never work in the future.  First time shame on you, 2nd time shame on me.


That's why Dad$'s COVID post are laughable.  For me they always have been.  He ignored the Scientific history, the bio history, and hyped cases based on the PCR test that was not only flawed but the wrong test for determining real time infections.  No wonder our government subsidizes education.  The education system teaches what to think.  Not How.  COVID just made it obvious.


----------



## Grace T. (May 26, 2021)

Taiwan: The Ignorance of Experts and Media
					

The absurdity of assuming "complacency" is responsible for COVID outcomes




					ianmsc.substack.com


----------



## watfly (May 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Taiwan: The Ignorance of Experts and Media
> 
> 
> The absurdity of assuming "complacency" is responsible for COVID outcomes
> ...


This:

_Based on these few countries, hapless politicians terrified of contradicting their preferred experts or government health officials, began operating under the assumption that testing, tracing and masks were key to stopping COVID. As with most other COVID-related policies, *those assumptions would turn into unshakable pseudo-religious beliefs*, regardless of the clear lack of impact their policies had on proceeding outcomes._

It was cult-like beliefs, actually.  You didn't dare to even question any of restrictions for fear of being called a heretic (regardless of your actual behavior).  Or in this case, being a member of "team virus" and being accused of prolonging the pandemic.  It's crazy what fear will do to followers and what power does to the "prophets".  Just obey, even if its lies and the guidance is faulty.


----------



## dad4 (May 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As usual with your mischaracterizations of others. I supported the travel ban and though the restrictions should be more severe on us citizens. I supported the state mask mandates for indoors but thought cloth masks were a mistake. I thought they should have surge closures of indoor dining bars and gyms. I thought keeping airlines running was a mistake. I supported hardening of the nursing homes and condemned cuomo while others defended him. I thought the office buildings should be closed, though much less restrictive than they were.  I thought people should be advised indoor transmission was risky so they could make up their own mind. So no not nothing.  My approach was more like the Florida approach or (with hardening of nursing homes/borders/indoor mask state mandates) Sweden.
> 
> so yup pat myself on the back. I was far more right about things than either you or your experts. Didn’t nail everything...but my record was close to 80%.


You now say you supported an indoor mask mandate.  WTF?

Your record is quite clear.  You spent 14 months finding different ways to tell people masks are not effective.  They don’t help much, look at the Dutch study, masks lose their effectiveness, kids can’t wear them, you can infect yourself by touching them, they don’t help if you don’t wash them enough, and so on.   Ten posts saying masks are not effective for every one post voicing half hearted support in limited circumstances.

That is not support.  That is a solid drumbeat undermining a basic public health measure.  

You say it was a mistake to keep airline running?  Just yesterday you mocked me for wanting to close air travel to non-essential travel.

You wanted to have surge closures of indoor dining?  Last winter, during the surge, you were advocating for relaxing those rules to get people back to work.

Nothing wrong with changing your opinion, but you don’t get to do it retroactively.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Taiwan: The Ignorance of Experts and Media
> 
> 
> The absurdity of assuming "complacency" is responsible for COVID outcomes
> ...


Excellent article. It will make @dad4 s head hurt.


----------



## crush (May 26, 2021)

I hear a big arrest is coming that will shock the world.  Any guesses?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Taiwan: The Ignorance of Experts and Media
> 
> 
> The absurdity of assuming "complacency" is responsible for COVID outcomes
> ...


I don't think the experts are ignorant at all.  They have a socialist agenda.  The masses are dumbed down.  You can see it in their actions.


----------



## dad4 (May 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> That's why Dad$'s COVID post are laughable.  For me they always have been.  He ignored the Scientific history, the bio history, and hyped cases based on the PCR test that was not only flawed but the wrong test for determining real time infections.  No wonder our government subsidizes education.  The education system teaches what to think.  Not How.  COVID just made it obvious.


Says the man who throws around statistics terms, but can’t write a decent explanation of what he means by them.

Do you have a coherent explanation of whatever your point was with R^2 yet?  

Should be easy for you.  I’m just asking your to clearly explain your own point, in your own words.


----------



## dad4 (May 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Excellent article. It will make @dad4 s head hurt.


It’s on substack.  There is a reason Team Virus has to seek support from non-scientific, non-peer reviewed articles.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *Nothing wrong with changing your opinion*, *but you don’t get to do it retroactively.*


Of course you can....retroactively.  That's why you had no credibility with me from the start. 



dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  *They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


Retroactive mea culpa.


----------



## watfly (May 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> I don't think the experts are ignorant at all.  They have a socialist agenda.  The masses are dumbed down.  You can see it in their actions.


Maybe some do, but I think it has more to do with arrogance than anything else and living in an academic bubble.  An utter failure of understanding how things work outside a lab (aka the real world).


----------



## dad4 (May 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Of course you can....retroactively.  That's why you had no credibility with me from the start.
> 
> 
> Retroactive mea culpa.


If you think I said masks eliminate transmission, find the link and post it.   (You won’t find one.  The goal is R<1, not R=0)

Better yet, pick up a stats book and try to figure out whatever it was you think you meant by R^2.


----------



## watfly (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s on substack.  There is a reason Team Virus has to seek support from non-scientific, non-peer reviewed articles.


It's an articulate opinion piece based on data.  Of course, we support it, we've been saying the same thing for months, just not as well said.


----------



## Grace T. (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You now say you supported an indoor mask mandate.  WTF?
> 
> Your record is quite clear.  You spent 14 months finding different ways to tell people masks are not effective.  They don’t help much, look at the Dutch study, masks lose their effectiveness, kids can’t wear them, you can infect yourself by touching them, they don’t help if you don’t wash them enough, and so on.   Ten posts saying masks are not effective for every one post voicing half hearted support in limited circumstances.
> 
> ...


Saying an indoor mask mandate is different than buying in wholesale to the ridiculous mask mandates in place including outdoor mask mandates and masks for young children and the autistic.  And my primary attacks have been to the oversell of masks.  If telling folks a lie that masks are better than vaccines is required for support, then no.  But yes, I've always thought, and have repeatedly said, an indoor mask mandate is a good idea: I just don't think it does what you think it does.

There's a difference between an airline grounding an non-essential travel.  The problem with non-essential travel restrictions is the enforcement given the ubiquity of the car.  Gonna put up police road barriers a la "Contagion"?  You still haven't said how you'd do it.

My position has been clear all along.  I've been right, you've been wrong.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Says the man who throws around statistics terms, but can’t write a decent explanation of what he means by them.
> 
> Do you have a coherent explanation of whatever your point was with R^2 yet?
> 
> Should be easy for you.  I’m just asking your to clearly explain your own point, in your own words.


Hanapaa!!  Unconfirmed COVID deaths were in no way correlated with your caseteria.  Feel free to run through your numbers again....retroactively of course.  Clarity and coherence is not what you seek.  If that were the case, you would not have ignored the opacity of the PCR test.  You would not have ignored the long history of respiratory diseases and the absence of tyrannical policies back then.  I get that you like cherry picking your data.  Funny thing is, it's cherry harvest in Cali.  So I expect you to not miss a beat for the next 5 weeks.


----------



## Grace T. (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s on substack.  There is a reason Team Virus has to seek support from non-scientific, non-peer reviewed articles.


We addressed in a prior article why Team Panic and its expert class behaved the way it did, attacking the outsiders who in the end were more right than they were.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you think I said masks eliminate transmission, find the link and post it.   (You won’t find one.  The goal is R<1, not R=0)
> 
> Better yet, pick up a stats book and try to figure out whatever it was you think you meant by R^2.


Says the man who throws around statistics terms, but can’t write a decent explanation as to why he excludes relevant historical data and stats.

Do you have a coherent explanation of why you exclude relevant historical data and stats? 

I know your socialist agenda makes it hard for you to do so.  I’m just asking you to clearly explain why you exclude relevant historical data and stats..


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s on substack.  There is a reason Team Virus has to seek support from non-scientific, non-peer reviewed articles.


There is a reason you have to exclude relevant historical data, stats, Science, biology, etc..  Cherry Harvest in Cali.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We addressed in a prior article why Team Panic and its expert class behaved the way it did, attacking the outsiders who in the end were more right than they were.


That's not saying much when you're dealing with a cherry picker.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

watfly said:


> It's an articulate opinion piece based on data.  Of course, we support it, we've been saying the same thing for months, just not as well said.


Another reason to lower the cherry pickers credit score.


----------



## doubled (May 26, 2021)

Some interesting mask discussion.









						Are Face Masks Effective? The Evidence.
					

An overview of the current evidence regarding the effectiveness of face masks.




					swprs.org
				




Also some larger thinking around Covid as a whole.









						Covid: The Big Picture (May 2021)
					

An update on the ‘Swedish model’, virus transmission and virus origin, global excess mortality, early treatment and vaccines, the importance of independent research, and ‘the luckiest aspect of the…




					swprs.org


----------



## dad4 (May 26, 2021)

watfly said:


> It's an articulate opinion piece based on data.  Of course, we support it, we've been saying the same thing for months, just not as well said.


Had we followed your advice last March, what would have happened?

Case growth followed an exponential curve up until about a week after the shutdowns began.  (From Feb 01 to March 24 or March 29, 2020).  This part is just fact.  Look at a log scale graph of case counts.  

Back then, you wanted us to believe it was not exponential.   Had we followed your advice, case growth would have continued on an exponential path until something else slowed it down.  What would that have been, and when would it have happened?

If you are relying on widespread natural immunity to act as the brakes, the slowdown doesn’t really start until you are over 50% seroprevalence.  How many deaths would you have had up to that point?

You can estimate it.  IFR back then was 0.7%.  Our treatments were not very good yet.   So, 330M * 0.5 * 0.07 = 1.15M deaths.  That is a kind estimate, since it assumes absolutely no degradation in the heath care system.  Once you account for that, you get the 2.2 million Imperial College estimate.

Which brings us back to the original point.  Those initial restrictions saved us between 0.5 million and 1.5 million deaths, depending on your assumptions about what happens when you run out of health care facilities.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 26, 2021)

Are Face Masks Effective? The Evidence.
					

An overview of the current evidence regarding the effectiveness of face masks.




					swprs.org


----------



## Desert Hound (May 26, 2021)

Here is one of @dad4 s solutions. Be like the Chinese.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370163272524046338


----------



## Grace T. (May 26, 2021)

doubled said:


> Some interesting mask discussion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yup, if the virus had affected children as badly as old people and the IFR was closer to 3%, we would have seen a lighter version of  "Contagion" play out.


----------



## watfly (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Had we followed your advice last March, what would have happened?


Less unemployment, fewer business closures and better education.

As far as Covid goes, I would have hoped that honesty and common sense would have worked better than fear mongering.  I personally believe that following my advice wouldn't have significantly impacted Covid one way or the other.  The fact is neither of us have any clue how things could have turned out differently.  We can play hypotheticals, speculate and attempt to rewrite history until we're blue in the face.  There is no causation, let alone any correlation, between policies and Covid peaks and valley.  There is no causation even with outside factors like weather and population density.  Theories and speculation yes, compelling evidence no. (with the exception of vaccines)


----------



## espola (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Says the man who throws around statistics terms, but can’t write a decent explanation of what he means by them.
> 
> Do you have a coherent explanation of whatever your point was with R^2 yet?
> 
> Should be easy for you.  I’m just asking your to clearly explain your own point, in your own words.


Ask him about percentages.


----------



## watfly (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Had we followed your advice last March, what would have happened?


Just to be clear, I had no clue what was happening in March.  My only advice at that time was don't panic, don't overreact.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Had we followed your advice last March, what would have happened?
> 
> Case growth followed an exponential curve up until about a week after the shutdowns began.  (From Feb 01 to March 24 or March 29, 2020).  This part is just fact.  Look at a log scale graph of case counts.
> 
> ...


Cherry Pickers Delight.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

espola said:


> Ask him about percentages.


What about them Rate-spola?


----------



## espola (May 26, 2021)

watfly said:


> Just to be clear, I had no clue what was happening in March.  My only advice at that time was don't panic, don't overreact.


All I knew was what I read on my laptop.  I could see the public reactions before March - sudden shortage of facemasks (any kind or price) followed by TP and PT.   Then, (I'm sure there is a good reason, I just don't know it), no redwood lumber.

I have tried to stay out of this debate except when someone is promoting falsehoods or scientific impossibilities.


----------



## Grace T. (May 26, 2021)

Well said...the walls are beginning to crumble around Team Panic.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/26/its-time-children-finally-get-back-normal-life/


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

espola said:


> All I knew was what I read on my laptop.  I could see the public reactions before March - sudden shortage of facemasks (any kind or price) followed by TP and PT.   Then, (I'm sure there is a good reason, I just don't know it), no redwood lumber.
> 
> I have tried to stay out of this debate except when someone is promoting falsehoods or scientific impossibilities.


Try harder


----------



## dad4 (May 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well said...the walls are beginning to crumble around Team Panic.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/26/its-time-children-finally-get-back-normal-life/


No divisions on that one.  Both sides agree that higher vaccination rates make it possible to open more things.

The remaining question is how quickly, and in what order.

My preference was "slowly, kids first".  The country chose "quickly, adults first.". 

It's why the strip clubs were open before the playgrounds.  Not sure who wants to take credit for that decision.


----------



## watfly (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It's why the strip clubs h open before the playgrounds.  Not sure who wants to take credit for that decision.


That was a judge's decision, not a policy decision re: strip clubs. (Technically they won on a freedom of expression claim, which apparently only applied to dancing naked, and not dancing clothed)

I'm sure if the playground coalition had enough money to hire counsel they would have prevailed.  I think every group that brought an action against the state or a county won their case, including Let Them Play.  Of course they brought most of the cases in San Diego and not the Bay Area.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No divisions on that one.  Both sides agree that higher vaccination rates make it possible to open more things.
> 
> The remaining question is how quickly, and in what order.
> 
> My preference was "slowly, kids first".  The country chose "quickly, adults first.".


None of the above would be an issue if the experts didn't ignore the well established Science.  Instead they employed the wrong test (PCR) to identify real time infections.  Fauci should go to jail for his fraud.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 26, 2021)

crush said:


> I hear a big arrest is coming that will shock the world.  Any guesses?


Joel Osteen


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Says the man who throws around statistics terms, but can’t write a decent explanation of what he means by them.
> 
> Do you have a coherent explanation of whatever your point was with R^2 yet?
> 
> Should be easy for you.  I’m just asking your to clearly explain your own point, in your own words.


Don’t hold your breath


----------



## Desert Hound (May 27, 2021)

Masks Didn't Slow COVID Spread: New Study
					






					townhall.com


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

Melbourne is entering now it’s 3rd lockdown due to 25 cases.  The lockdowns in australia are very severe and include stupid stuff like outdoor mask mandates and shutting down schools and being able to leAve your house only for certain limited reasons.  The second lockdown at over 100 days was one of the longest in the world.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Masks Didn't Slow COVID Spread: New Study
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My brother in law says seat belts, helmets when riding a bike, stop signs and speed limits are all unnecessary as well. FREEDUMB!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> My brother in law says seat belts, helmets when riding a bike, stop signs and speed limits are all unnecessary as well. FREEDUMB!


He said you're a swallower.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Don’t hold your breath


That's on the NPI list.  Every man for himself.


----------



## watfly (May 27, 2021)

Dad4 made a comment a number of pages back to the effect that "Courts are how we hold people accountable".   This mentality is why California is such a litigious state.  I personally believe courts are the venue of last resort for holding people accountable.  Nevertheless, Newsom has been held accountable for his unlawful Covid restrictions time and time again.  Here is the latest:









						Pasadena Church Prevails in Lawsuit Against Newsom Over Restrictions
					

A California District Court entered an order this week approving Liberty Counsel's settlement of a lawsuit on behalf of Pasadena's Harvest Rock Church and Harvest International Ministry against California Governor Gavin Newsom and his COVID-19 restrictions.




					www.newsweek.com
				




This wasn't just a loss for Newsom, when you have to pay the other sides attorneys' fees, that's an ass kicking.  (and this considering churches were a known source of spread in some cases.)  Just add to it the court overruled restrictions on restaurants, strip clubs, youth sports etc.

Whether Dad4's proposed restrictions for Covid, which as best I can tell sounds like Newsom restrictions on steroids, would work, or not, is a moot point since many of Newsom's restrictions were deemed unlawful.  

(On a macro level an appellate court deemed Newsom had power under the Emergency Act to amend state law or policy, but on a case-by-case basis those restrictions that were challenged were nearly all determined to be unlawful by the Court.)


----------



## watfly (May 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> My brother in law says seat belts, helmets when riding a bike, stop signs and speed limits are all unnecessary as well. FREEDUMB!


I suspect that if he ever gets t-boned on his bike he'll likely change his mind. (Not encouraging this to happen, just an observation).


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Melbourne is entering now it’s 3rd lockdown due to 25 cases.  The lockdowns in australia are very severe and include stupid stuff like outdoor mask mandates and shutting down schools and being able to leAve your house only for certain limited reasons.  The second lockdown at over 100 days was one of the longest in the world.


The more severe restrictions are a way to reduce the duration of the restrictions.

The idea is to reduce R well below 1.  If R = 0.9, you will eventually get to zero, but it might take a long time.  If you can get to R = 0.7, it takes about 1/3 the time.

They aren’t trying for sustained R<1.  Think of it as R = 0.5 on a temporary basis.  That requires much stricter measures than basic containment, and is therefore not a very good way to measure the difficulty of reaching R<1.

-Buzz


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The more severe restrictions are a way to reduce the duration of the restrictions.
> 
> The idea is to reduce R well below 1.  If R = 0.9, you will eventually get to zero, but it might take a long time.  If you can get to R = 0.7, it takes about 1/3 the time.
> 
> ...


Yes, but as Australia has shown the tradeoff if you want to try and be virus-free like Australia is you need to do it repeatedly and sometimes it still takes a long time anyways (100+ days)


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> Dad4 made a comment a number of pages back to the effect that "Courts are how we hold people accountable".   This mentality is why California is such a litigious state.  I personally believe courts are the venue of last resort for holding people accountable.  Nevertheless, Newsom has been held accountable for his unlawful Covid restrictions time and time again.  Here is the latest:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Santa Clara’s church restrictions held up.  They did not mention religion, and focused on things like number of people, size of facility, and time spent.  

May just be a case where it matters how you write the rule.


----------



## watfly (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Santa Clara’s church restrictions held up.  They did not mention religion, and focused on things like number of people, size of facility, and time spent.
> 
> May just be a case where it matters how you write the rule.


Possibly, but Newsom agreed to the settlement.  Plus Newsom lost at the US Supreme Court as well.  I haven't read the Judges' ruling, but I suspect its more a matter of substance, and not semantics.



			https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article249056420.html


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> Possibly, but Newsom agreed to the settlement.  Plus Newsom lost at the US Supreme Court as well.  I haven't read the Judges' ruling, but I suspect its more a matter of substance, and not semantics.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article249056420.html


Your link says that capacity limits and bans on singing are fine.  The semantics matter.  

Not sure how the court got to 25% as an acceptable capacity limit.  Perhaps Mr. Kavanaugh thinks he is an epidemiologist and was reading through air flow studies.


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Santa Clara’s church restrictions held up.  They did not mention religion, and focused on things like number of people, size of facility, and time spent.
> 
> May just be a case where it matters how you write the rule.


Yes, this.  The Supreme Court decisions all seem to center around if religion is singled out for different treatment.  If it's a neutral occupancy limit that seems to hold up.


----------



## watfly (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not sure how the court got to 25% as an acceptable capacity limit.


Thought that was curious as well.  Based on the settlement, it seems that if Newsom wanted to limit Church to 25% (if he could even still do that) he would have to do the same with grocery stores, big box stores etc.  We can parse words here, but the reality is Newsom is getting spanked repeatedly by the Courts on just about every front.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> My brother in law says seat belts, helmets when riding a bike, stop signs and speed limits are all unnecessary as well. FREEDUMB!


You pop every now and then I think to remind us that the world is full of not too bright people.

Seat belts and helmets, etc have decades of research showing they work.

With masks we have decades of research showing they are ineffective vs influenza type viruses. And as the covid stuff stretches out more info shows the same result.

But as usual that difference escapes you. 

I know you cannot tell the difference, but I guess that is why you pop in and out of the forums to remind us of A) how partisan you are or B) how basic facts escape you.


----------



## espola (May 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> With masks we have decades of research showing they are ineffective vs influenza type viruses. And as the covid stuff stretches out more info shows the same result.


That's not true.

But thank you for proving your original charge that the world is full of not too bright people.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your link says that capacity limits and bans on singing are fine.  The semantics matter.
> 
> Not sure how the court got to 25% as an acceptable capacity limit.  Perhaps Mr. Kavanaugh thinks he is an epidemiologist and was reading through air flow studies.


Speaking of Air flow:



dad4 said:


> *Masks reduce* the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  *They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


Husker can help you with some other examples.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 27, 2021)

espola said:


> That's not true.
> 
> But thank you for proving your original charge that the world is full of not too bright people.


I remember the last time there was Global masking.  But please continue.


----------



## crush (May 27, 2021)

*Meet my two pals, Crusher and Tank. This is the new normal fellas *


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> Thought that was curious as well.  Based on the settlement, it seems that if Newsom wanted to limit Church to 25% (if he could even still do that) he would have to do the same with grocery stores, big box stores etc.  We can parse words here, but the reality is Newsom is getting spanked repeatedly by the Courts on just about every front.


That’s what bugs me about the ruling.  Fire maximum occupancy has nothing to do with air flow.  It has to do with exit routes.  

By the court’s ruling, if you replace pews with produce bins, the covid risk goes up.  Take out the produce bins and put in bar stools, and the covid risk goes back down.  (Because grocers have lower occupancy rates per square foot than bars and churches.)

Activist court, pure and simple.   Grabbed the nearest available lever and gave it a big shove without thinking about what it was connected to.

It’s why you need to be connect your laws to the thing you care about.  If you care about people per square foot and time of stay, then the law should talk about people per square foot and time of stay.   Newsom talked about intended use, which was a mistake.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s what bugs me about the ruling.  Fire maximum occupancy has nothing to do with air flow.  It has to do with exit routes.
> 
> By the court’s ruling, if you replace pews with produce bins, the covid risk goes up.  Take out the produce bins and put in bar stools, and the covid risk goes back down.  (Because grocers have lower occupancy rates per square foot than bars and churches.)
> 
> ...


This is the kind of post that renders your POV useless since you choose to ignore Virus history.  But waffle on.


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s what bugs me about the ruling.  Fire maximum occupancy has nothing to do with air flow.  It has to do with exit routes.
> 
> By the court’s ruling, if you replace pews with produce bins, the covid risk goes up.  Take out the produce bins and put in bar stools, and the covid risk goes back down.  (Because grocers have lower occupancy rates per square foot than bars and churches.)
> 
> ...


You under supreme courts ruling you could probably do a square foot and time of stay rule.  But it would mean that a church that was at 25% capacity and a shortened service still would have been better than a crowded Costco on a Saturday afternoon. What you can’t do is categorize churches as nonessential or treat them worse than other categories


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

@dad4....your wife is now openly complaining about you in the press....time to have a talk with her.

Just kidding, of course.









						Help! My Husband Won’t Take His Mask Off—Even for Sex.
					

We’re both vaccinated now. When will this stop?




					slate.com


----------



## watfly (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s what bugs me about the ruling.  Fire maximum occupancy has nothing to do with air flow.  It has to do with exit routes.
> 
> By the court’s ruling, if you replace pews with produce bins, the covid risk goes up.  Take out the produce bins and put in bar stools, and the covid risk goes back down.  (Because grocers have lower occupancy rates per square foot than bars and churches.)
> 
> ...


I appreciate that you have your own view of what an utopian society should like like and obviously your Covid policies would work flawlessly in this society.  However, at the end of the day we all have to live in reality and we can't design policies based upon your or someone else's perception of the ideal world.  The reality is that Newsom's and other states' restrictions don't have a great track record of prevailing when challenged in the Courts.  The fact it may have been an activist court, or not, is irrelevant. You're great at the "yeah but", the red herring, picking around the margins and semantics; however, your arguments don't substantively overcome the fact that we're entitled to certain freedoms.  Certain restrictions are prohibited out right while others can't be applied on a discriminatory basis.  There is no question that many of the Covid policies were discriminatory.  The worst against our children.


----------



## crush (May 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> @dad4....your wife is now openly complaining about you in the press....time to have a talk with her.
> 
> Just kidding, of course.
> 
> ...


So funny & true.  I have a very good friend who just lost his girlfriend because he wont do the Vax.  She now has an ad on Tinder that reads, "Vax'd and Wax'd" and looking for the same


----------



## watfly (May 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> @dad4....your wife is now openly complaining about you in the press....time to have a talk with her.
> 
> Just kidding, of course.
> 
> ...


That's straight up mental illness.  He needs to see a therapist, STAT.

This was the BINGO statement from the article: *“What’s the harm?” is such an insidious phrase.* Anyone who says "What's the harm?" doesn't have a fundamental understanding of the problem.


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> That's straight up mental illness.  He needs to see a therapist, STAT.
> 
> This was the BINGO statement from the article: *“What’s the harm?” is such an insidious phrase.* Anyone who says "What's the harm?" doesn't have a fundamental understanding of the problem.


I finally dragged out my fully vaccinated parents for dinner outdoors last night.  We had the dog with us so no problem eating outside anyways.  The only 2 folks wearing their N95s at the table.


----------



## watfly (May 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I finally dragged out my fully vaccinated parents for dinner outdoors last night.  We had the dog with us so no problem eating outside anyways.  The only 2 folks wearing their N95s at the table.


"Yeah, but" they still went out in public to dinner.  Plus I don't judge very mature adults.  I know too well from my elderly parents that its not worth the effort to try and convince them that their thoughts might not be completely rational.  That's not mental illness, that's just getting old.


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You under supreme courts ruling you could probably do a square foot and time of stay rule.  But it would mean that a church that was at 25% capacity and a shortened service still would have been better than a crowded Costco on a Saturday afternoon. What you can’t do is categorize churches as nonessential or treat them worse than other categories


I think you’re having trouble thinking in terms of people per square foot.

Imagine what your church would look like if, after you all sit down, you bring in a large shopping cart for each person.  Then bring in a bunch of shelving to hold all the boxes.  That’s what Costco would look lime if it were actually as crowded as a church or a theater.

Costco feels crowded only because there is no room for the shelves and the shopping carts.  The next time you are at a grocery store, take a guess at how many people are within a 20 meter radius. Then do the same for your church or theater.  There is no comparison.  The seated venue is far more crowded.


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think you’re having trouble thinking in terms of people per square foot.
> 
> Imagine what your church would look like if, after you all sit down, you bring in a large shopping cart for each person.  Then bring in a bunch of shelving to hold all the boxes.  That’s what Costco would look lime if it were actually as crowded as a church or a theater.
> 
> Costco feels crowded only because there is no room for the shelves and the shopping carts.  The next time you are at a grocery store, take a guess at how many people are within a 20 meter radius. Then do the same for your church or theater.  There is no comparison.  The seated venue is far more crowded.


You haven’t been to the mainline churches recently.  In our sanctuary an average Sunday service moderately attended would be less crowded than a vons let alone a Costco. 60 people who could be scattered on 3 levels and the Dias and that’s before the covid scared don’t show up.


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think you’re having trouble thinking in terms of people per square foot.
> 
> Imagine what your church would look like if, after you all sit down, you bring in a large shopping cart for each person.  Then bring in a bunch of shelving to hold all the boxes.  That’s what Costco would look lime if it were actually as crowded as a church or a theater.
> 
> Costco feels crowded only because there is no room for the shelves and the shopping carts.  The next time you are at a grocery store, take a guess at how many people are within a 20 meter radius. Then do the same for your church or theater.  There is no comparison.  The seated venue is far more crowded.


You also clearly haven’t been to a Costco on sat afternoon recently. Weekdays you have a point. Ralph’s? Ok. Costco on Saturday no.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 27, 2021)

watfly said:


> Thought that was curious as well.  Based on the settlement, it seems that if Newsom wanted to limit Church to 25% (if he could even still do that) he would have to do the same with grocery stores, big box stores etc.  We can parse words here, but the reality is Newsom is getting spanked repeatedly by the Courts on just about every front.


As bad as trump got/is getting spanked by the courts? What’s the batting averages?


----------



## watfly (May 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> As bad as trump got/is getting spanked by the courts? What’s the batting averages?


Neither would make single A with their averages.


----------



## watfly (May 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> As bad as trump got/is getting spanked by the courts? What’s the batting averages?


Actually Trump's pre-election batting average is pretty good, his post election batting average is virtually non-existent like Newsom's Covid case batting average.


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You haven’t been to the mainline churches recently.  In our sanctuary an average Sunday service moderately attended would be less crowded than a vons let alone a Costco. 60 people who could be scattered on 3 levels and the Dias and that’s before the covid scared don’t show up.


There is actual data available.

A church typically has about 15-17 square feet per person.

A retail store is usually limited to one person per 60 square feet.   Less for big box.

So, for airborne disease risk, a retail store at full capacity is roughly equivalent to a church at 1/4 capacity.  (Assuming no singing at either )


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> There is actual data available.
> 
> A church typically has about 15-17 square feet per person.
> 
> ...


Which is exactly the point.  A costco is brimming to the top on Saturday afternoons.  Our mainline church is at 1/4 capacity in the sanctuary on a regular Sunday pre COVID (we usually worship in the chapel as a result and only to go the sanctuary for high feast days when visitors and family comes in).


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Which is exactly the point.  A costco is brimming to the top on Saturday afternoons.  Our mainline church is at 1/4 capacity in the sanctuary on a regular Sunday pre COVID (we usually worship in the chapel as a result and only to go the sanctuary for high feast days when visitors and family comes in).


A typical Costco is 150,000 square feet and 750 parking spaces.

That’s about 200 square feet per person when the parking lot is full.

Unless the chapel at your church is 12,000 square feet, your church with 60 people is considerably more dense than Costco.


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> A typical Costco is 150,000 square feet and 750 parking spaces.
> 
> That’s about 200 square feet per person when the parking lot is full.
> 
> Unless the chapel at your church is 12,000 square feet, your church with 60 people is considerably more dense than Costco.


Costco on a Saturday afternoon I’m shoulder to shoulder with people and have a hard time moving in my cart particularly at the checkout, pharmacy, meat, and prepared foods areas.  At church my family and I can sit in an entire section on the second floor by ourselves even if you spread the 25 or so families that may go during covid and minus all the old people.

the church separates by family. Costco can’t even separate by individuals. Once again the theoretical math fails in a real world situation.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your link says that capacity limits and bans on singing are fine.  The semantics matter.
> 
> Not sure how the court got to 25% as an acceptable capacity limit.  Perhaps Mr. Kavanaugh thinks he is an epidemiologist and was reading through air flow studies.


Osterholm is an epidemiologist who had counseled presidents and governors, right? Maybe Kavanaugh just used the percentage of the time epidemiologists' predictions were reasonably close. That seems to be giving them more credit than they deserve, honestly.


----------



## N00B (May 27, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Osterholm is an epidemiologist who had counseled presidents and governors, right? Maybe Kavanaugh just used the percentage of the time epidemiologists' predictions were reasonably close. That seems to be giving them more credit than they deserve, honestly.


I didn’t read the case brief, but certainly recall restrictions on retail at 25% capacity for other ‘non-essential’ entities.  

The Costco/Grocer comparison is a red herring and not a relevant point of comparison as they were considered ‘essential’.


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Osterholm is an epidemiologist who had counseled presidents and governors, right? Maybe Kavanaugh just used the percentage of the time epidemiologists' predictions were reasonably close. That seems to be giving them more credit than they deserve, honestly.


If you want to evaluate epidemiologists as a whole, look at the original Imperial College estimate.   2.2 million dead if we did nothing.  

We managed to delay the main surge by 8 months, which gave us time to create better treatments.  Despite that, we still had 600K dead.  I’d say the original estimate was pretty solid.

If you don’t want to listen to epidemiologists, who do you want to listen to, and what did they have to say back in March?  

The main contrary voice was the guy who said, “It will all be over by Easter.”.   Did you want us all to listen to that advice, instead?


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Costco on a Saturday afternoon I’m shoulder to shoulder with people and have a hard time moving in my cart particularly at the checkout, pharmacy, meat, and prepared foods areas.  At church my family and I can sit in an entire section on the second floor by ourselves even if you spread the 25 or so families that may go during covid and minus all the old people.
> 
> the church separates by family. Costco can’t even separate by individuals. Once again the theoretical math fails in a real world situation.


It’s not theoretical math.  The aerosols in Costco have a much larger volume of air into which they can disperse.  The aerosols in a church have far smaller volume into which they can disperse, so concentrations will be higher.

This is the kind of thinking that public health officials do well, and lawyers do poorly.   

Example:  Your above post thinks in terms of distance to the nearest person.  Why?  Two weeks ago you made a big point that, indoors, 6 feet and 60 feet are similar.  So learn from it.  If you believe your own point, then you should be paying attention to the risk from the ambient air at your church.  Having a whole balcony to yourself doesn‘t matter.  You’re still breathing air that comes from the other 25 families in the room with you.  If you all are masked and 6 feet apart, then the risk is proportionate to the average concentration in the airspace.  (And it’s time to do that theoretical computation you hate so much.  Math is good for things like “average concentration”.)


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> A typical Costco is 150,000 square feet and 750 parking spaces.
> 
> That’s about 200 square feet per person when the parking lot is full.
> 
> Unless the chapel at your church is 12,000 square feet, your church with 60 people is considerably more dense than Costco.


Ok…so of that 150,000 sqft, how much is dedicated to retail space and how much to stock and offices?  Of that retail space, how much is occupied by inventory and how much is dedicated to “traffic”.  My best educated guesstimate is about 75,000 sqft dedicated to “traffic”. So now do your math based on that area versus the total space of the building if you want a true picture of sqft/person.


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## N00B (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s not theoretical math.  The aerosols in Costco have a much larger volume of air into which they can disperse.  The aerosols in a church have far smaller volume into which they can disperse, so concentrations will be higher.
> 
> This is the kind of thinking that public health officials do well, and lawyers do poorly.
> 
> Example:  Your above post thinks in terms of distance to the nearest person.  Why?  Two weeks ago you made a big point that, indoors, 6 feet and 60 feet are similar.  So learn from it.  If you believe your own point, then you should be paying attention to the risk from the ambient air at your church.  Having a whole balcony to yourself doesn‘t matter.  You’re still breathing air that comes from the other 25 families in the room with you.  If you all are masked and 6 feet apart, then the risk is proportionate to the average concentration in the airspace.  (And it’s time to do that theoretical computation you hate so much.  Math is good for things like “average concentration”.)


I get where you’re coming from. but the assumptions are false.  Volume of air is relative to the structure in question vs the maximum occupancy from a fire code (floor space).

Either way we’re still in the ‘red herring’ zone... Costco/Ralph’s occupancy is not relevant as essential businesses vs other entities.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you want to evaluate epidemiologists as a whole, look at the original Imperial College estimate.   2.2 million dead if we did nothing.
> 
> We managed to delay the main surge by 8 months, which gave us time to create better treatments.  Despite that, we still had 600K dead.  I’d say the original estimate was pretty solid.
> 
> ...


Some of those early "predictions" of risk were BS - outdoor activities and surfaces. It was shocking how slow the march was to the conclusion that the virus was airborne. But, yes, the advice, "it's a virus, so stay away from others" was wise, if not a bit obvious - to most.


----------



## dad4 (May 27, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Ok…so of that 150,000 sqft, how much is dedicated to retail space and how much to stock and offices?  Of that retail space, how much is occupied by inventory and how much is dedicated to “traffic”.  My best educated guesstimate is about 75,000 sqft dedicated to “traffic”. So now do your math based on that area versus the total space of the building if you want a true picture of sqft/person.


It is fair to exclude stock space and office space, just as you should exclude the office and utility space in the church.  For Costco, this changes very little.  The vast majority of their space is in the main shopping area.  

But you don’t exclude inventory space in the main room.  That volume is still part of the main airflow, and that volume still helps the aerosols disperse.   Similarly, you should not exclude the pulpit or the chancel in the sanctuary.  It’s part of the airflow in the main room.

Measured by people per square foot or cubic foot in the main room, Costco is far less dense than almost any church.  Any church with 150 square feet per parishioner is probably very close to closing.  (that would be a living room worth of space around every couple attending church.  Eerily quiet.)

Main point is that fire occupancy is the wrong way to think of airborne disease risk.   Cubic feet per person or square feet per person make more sense. The court’s standard is a-scientific nonsense.


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

N00B said:


> I get where you’re coming from. but the assumptions are false.  Volume of air is relative to the structure in question vs the maximum occupancy from a fire code (floor space).
> 
> Either way we’re still in the ‘red herring’ zone... Costco/Ralph’s occupancy is not relevant as essential businesses vs other entities.


The issue with the case is that religion is essential to some people and its not the states job to say it’s not


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s not theoretical math.  The aerosols in Costco have a much larger volume of air into which they can disperse.  The aerosols in a church have far smaller volume into which they can disperse, so concentrations will be higher.
> 
> This is the kind of thinking that public health officials do well, and lawyers do poorly.
> 
> Example:  Your above post thinks in terms of distance to the nearest person.  Why?  Two weeks ago you made a big point that, indoors, 6 feet and 60 feet are similar.  So learn from it.  If you believe your own point, then you should be paying attention to the risk from the ambient air at your church.  Having a whole balcony to yourself doesn‘t matter.  You’re still breathing air that comes from the other 25 families in the room with you.  If you all are masked and 6 feet apart, then the risk is proportionate to the average concentration in the airspace.  (And it’s time to do that theoretical computation you hate so much.  Math is good for things like “average concentration”.)


As kicker points out not everywhere in the Costco is being used for shopping. What’s more is there is a prolonged concentration of people next to each other at bottle necks such as the check out (10-15 minutes on a Saturday afternoon).   So I’m breathing in the air not just of 25 families but 200 that have been concentrated in that area for the last hour. Plus I might be standing right next to someone for 15 minutes who is actively ill. Again it’s all nice in theory but the real world simply doesn’t work that way. And as usual I point out it’s why businesses do not put the theoreticians in charge of making the final call because you all get lost in the math.

The concentration of people and the amount of time spent in a Costco on a Saturday afternoon is excess of the truncated service of 25 families spread out in a large sanctuary.  You even started out by conceding that in your post up above but changed your mind when the result didn’t line up with your thinking, as always.

But in any case, to circle around, a standard that emphasizes neutral standards of time and concentration of people would likely survive scrutiny from the courts. Standards that declare churches non essential or single out churches from other establishments would not. You can argue whether that’s wise or should be the case but that is the way the ruling breaks down.


----------



## Grace T. (May 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It is fair to exclude stock space and office space, just as you should exclude the office and utility space in the church.  For Costco, this changes very little.  The vast majority of their space is in the main shopping area.
> 
> But you don’t exclude inventory space in the main room.  That volume is still part of the main airflow, and that volume still helps the aerosols disperse.   Similarly, you should not exclude the pulpit or the chancel in the sanctuary.  It’s part of the airflow in the main room.
> 
> ...


Mainline churches  were constructed with large crowds in mind. You are very clearly not aware of the decline they’ve gone through.  Ours has a huge sanctuary built in 3 levels + choir loft + the Dias. There’s no taxes on the place and it’s all paid for with repair costs the biggest expense. On Easter Sunday and Christmas, the sanctuary first floor, with no open spaces between families, would be 1/2 occupied

this is not true of course for Mormon or evangelical churches but it’s their call whether the ministers want to offer multiple services. It is true of many Catholic Churches using sanctuaries built before 1960 when the churches began to go into decline.

the point is the standard whether church or store is required to be neutral.  Either way my own church by fire code or cubic feet per person, knowing 1/2 the congregation (most over 50) would not show up, would easily pass muster. And yes services in the sanctuary on a holiday weekend would be eerily quiet as they would in many mainline churches. It’s why we normally worship in the chapel which is usually crowded and would not pass muster under this test


----------



## crush (May 28, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (May 28, 2021)

There’s an anti Pfizer whisper campaign afoot in Europe. It’s based on the claims that the mRNA vaccines cause myocarditis.  Some are blaming the Russian government which is trying to push its Sputnik vaccines. Others say it’s az which had a study leaked showing incidents of deaths (not necessarily correlated) were greater with the Pfizer vaccine than with the az vaccine.


----------



## dad4 (May 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As kicker points out not everywhere in the Costco is being used for shopping. What’s more is there is a prolonged concentration of people next to each other at bottle necks such as the check out (10-15 minutes on a Saturday afternoon).   So I’m breathing in the air not just of 25 families but 200 that have been concentrated in that area for the last hour. Plus I might be standing right next to someone for 15 minutes who is actively ill. Again it’s all nice in theory but the real world simply doesn’t work that way. And as usual I point out it’s why businesses do not put the theoreticians in charge of making the final call because you all get lost in the math.
> 
> The concentration of people and the amount of time spent in a Costco on a Saturday afternoon is excess of the truncated service of 25 families spread out in a large sanctuary.  You even started out by conceding that in your post up above but changed your mind when the result didn’t line up with your thinking, as always.
> 
> But in any case, to circle around, a standard that emphasizes neutral standards of time and concentration of people would likely survive scrutiny from the courts. Standards that declare churches non essential or single out churches from other establishments would not. You can argue whether that’s wise or should be the case but that is the way the ruling breaks down.


If we agree that a people per square foot standard survives, then we can stop with the “all restrictions are illegal” line of reasoning.

At most, we can say that Newsom wrote his restrictions the wrong way.  He should have just said 5 people per 1000 square feet, plus 6 feet distance and a minimum air cycling standard.


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## crush (May 28, 2021)

*Good vs Evil:  The Two Doors of Life*​
Door #1 is Jesus Christ The Winner. Freedom, forgiveness, mercy, grace, love, joy, peace & happiness, no more disease, no more fear, no more hate and just a fun guy to be around.

Door #2 is Lucifer The Loser.  Slave, hate, division, murder, abortion, harvest baby parts, torture baby and then drink blood from Pineal Gland and eat that too for the ultimate high on earth.  Have the world and everything the world brings: Sex, drugs and rock and roll.  Cheating and more cheating so one can look good all the time, abuse kids in foster care, steal kids for human trafficking, drink more blood to get high, sell soul, rape, lie and more lies. Live a life of a Big Lie.  Lie and more lie and just die.  That is not a good life and brings heart ache to one's soul.

I hear it's going to get really scary soon.  It's going to get dark.  Lean on Him and He will take good care of you.  Love you all, regardless of what door you choose.  I know someone who is atheist and he just told me that he believes in UFOs now.  I told him those are Angels bro and he got all mad at me.  I love my pal


----------



## Grace T. (May 28, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If we agree that a people per square foot standard survives, then we can stop with the “all restrictions are illegal” line of reasoning.
> 
> At most, we can say that Newsom wrote his restrictions the wrong way.  He should have just said 5 people per 1000 square feet, plus 6 feet distance and a minimum air cycling standard.


That would have survived if he applied it equally across all establishments and not singled out churches.  But schools would still be shut, no?


----------



## Grace T. (May 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That would have survived if he applied it equally across all establishments and not singled out churches.  But schools would still be shut, no?


The other thing which might have survived at the time and could have peeled off some cons is very narrowly defining essential as necessary for survival. But that would have meant schools must close, dentists limited to emergency care, no weed or alcohol shops open, no takeout....only grocery fire police medical and pharmacies and the blm stuff would have complicated things


----------



## N00B (May 28, 2021)

dad4 said:


> At most, we can say that Newsom wrote his restrictions the wrong way.


...or that it didn’t matter how the restrictions were written because by the time they were challenged though the court system the surge or peak would have passed.


----------



## Grace T. (May 28, 2021)

N00B said:


> ...or that it didn’t matter how the restrictions were written because by the time they were challenged though the court system the surge or peak would have passed.


A. But the precedent has now been set of it needs to be used again and
B. It most definitely impacted the way newsom was able to manage the winter surge and it also forced him into settlements with religious schools in some areas keeping them open.


----------



## watfly (May 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A. But the precedent has now been set of it needs to be used again and
> B. It most definitely impacted the way newsom was able to manage the winter surge and it also forced him into settlements with religious schools in some areas keeping them open.


If there is a pandemic in the future, there will be a much quicker rush to the courts than what happened this time, because of the beating the restrictions took in the court.


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## watfly (May 28, 2021)

Are we seriously arguing about the volume of air in Costcos and churches?  Whatever standard of occupancy is set is speculative at best and largely irrelevant.  It seems we're completely missing the bigger picture. The virus doesn't give a shit about micromanagement.  Staying 6 feet away from non-household members is probably the best we can do.

For the next pandemic are we going to get epidemiologist decoder rings, so we know which ones to believe vs. the ones to ignore?


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## Grace T. (May 28, 2021)

roh roh.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1398252182609154056


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 28, 2021)




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## Bruddah IZ (May 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> Are we seriously arguing about the volume of air in Costcos and churches?


Doesn't Costco have more daily Masses than a Church?  Can I get an Amen??


----------



## Desert Hound (May 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> Are we seriously arguing about the volume of air in Costcos and churches?  Whatever standard of occupancy is set is speculative at best and largely irrelevant.  It seems we're completely missing the bigger picture. The virus doesn't give a shit about micromanagement.  Staying 6 feet away from non-household members is probably the best we can do.
> 
> For the next pandemic are we going to get epidemiologist decoder rings, so we know which ones to believe vs. the ones to ignore?


The virus was going to spread no matter what. The reality is people had to go to the store, get gas, etc. A significant amount of people had to work, etc. When you look at that, the virus was going to spread. 

At best maybe people learn to stay home when they don't feel well.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 28, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think you’re having trouble thinking in terms of people per square foot.
> 
> Imagine what your church would look like if, after you all sit down, you bring in a large shopping cart for each person.  Then bring in a bunch of shelving to hold all the boxes.  That’s what Costco would look lime if it were actually as crowded as a church or a theater.
> 
> Costco feels crowded only because there is no room for the shelves and the shopping carts.  The next time you are at a grocery store, take a guess at how many people are within a 20 meter radius. Then do the same for your church or theater.  There is no comparison.  The seated venue is far more crowded.


Always good for a laugh.


----------



## crush (May 28, 2021)

C+C+P+Dr. F+Abortion+HC+Vax+Vax Booster x pie+Billy Boy x Tommy Boy= WMD+Evil= Satan or some like to call Lucifer!!!  He's captured folks.  Think about that for a moment.  My sources and rumor mill is backing me up 100%.  Clean up time has been going on.  Arrest too so sit back and watch with your eyes.  God really does love us all.  Jesus came to save, not judge you.  He knows way more then Santa and the NSA combined.  He knows motive as well.  Bad people can become good, trust me.  Bad people WHO become evil is not good.  Look, if you got caught with kick back and hand in cookie jar, stop doing that and be good from now on.  It's a choice   If you get confronted and you know you cheated, stop cheating and say sorry.  Dont get all defensive and act like you did nothing wrong.


----------



## crush (May 28, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Doesn't Costco have more daily Masses than a Church?  Can I get an Amen??


Amen Bruddah!!!


----------



## Desert Hound (May 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> roh roh.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1398252182609154056


Yep. 

And over the past couple of months his story on the lab in China has changed. Last year he was telling us this was a naturally occurring virus. The press happily went along and was not curious as to the origin of the virus be it natural or man made. 

Now that it doesn't matter any more, suddenly it isn't some conspiracy story any more. Hell the Wash Post just the other day basically said their reporting early on was partisan. Since Trump said it may have came from a lab, the Post and others took the other position. 

We would be far better off if people realized that the press is highly partisan in this country. Most support one party. Most in their reporting help to create divisions in this country that would normally not be there.


----------



## crush (May 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep.
> 
> And over the past couple of months his story on the lab in China has changed. Last year he was telling us this was a naturally occurring virus. The press happily went along and was not curious as to the origin of the virus be it natural or man made.
> 
> ...


Hey Hound, we've all been lied too.  Natural virus my ass bro.  This is game on!!!


----------



## watfly (May 28, 2021)

[QUOTE="Desert Hound, post: 395372, member: 175"
At best maybe people learn to stay home when they don't feel well.
[/QUOTE]
This 100%.  Unfortunately, in many respects the policies for the healthy and the sick were effectively the same.  This lack of differentiation I believe caused more problems than it solved.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> [QUOTE="Desert Hound, post: 395372, member: 175"
> At best maybe people learn to stay home when they don't feel well.


This 100%.  Unfortunately, in many respects the policies for the healthy and the sick were effectively the same.  This lack of differentiation I believe caused more problems than it solved.
[/QUOTE]
It was a blanket approach that as you said treated various groups the same despite the fact that the vast majority of the population has little to no risk from covid. 

Life expectancy in the US is 78. The average age of people dying due to covid is also 78


----------



## Desert Hound (May 28, 2021)

And from the latest study that came out this week regarding masks...

By the way you notice there are studies coming out showing a lack of effectiveness over the course of the pandemic? And you notice that the major governmental agencies have also posted they still need further studies to determine if masks actually work? If it were such a slam dunk that masks worked, there would be an abundance of studies showing just that. And yet there are not. Politically these various orgs here and abroad have to keep recommending masks. 

"New findings reported Tuesday in a University of Louisville study challenge what has been the prevailing belief that mask mandates are necessary to slow the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus. The study notes that "80% of US states mandated masks during the COVID-19 pandemic" and while "mandates induced greater mask compliance, [they] did not predict lower growth rates when community spread was low (minima) or high (maxima)." Among other things, the study--conducted using data from the CDC covering multiple seasons--reports that *"mask mandates and use are not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 spread among US states."*

"Our findings *do not support the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates decrease with greater public mask use*," notes the U of L report. Researchers stated that "masks may promote social cohesion as rallying symbols during a pandemic, but risk compensation can also occur"...


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep.
> 
> And over the past couple of months his story on the lab in China has changed. Last year he was telling us this was a naturally occurring virus. The press happily went along and was not curious as to the origin of the virus be it natural or man made.
> 
> ...


Socialist Agenda.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This 100%.  Unfortunately, in many respects the policies for the healthy and the sick were effectively the same.  This lack of differentiation I believe caused more problems than it solved.
> 
> It was a blanket approach that as you said treated various groups the same despite the fact that the vast majority of the population has little to no risk from covid.
> 
> Life expectancy in the US is 78. The average age of people dying due to covid is also 78


All we needed to do was look at the Life Insurance Premiums and the historical actuarial data to know objectively what was going on.


----------



## Kicker4Life (May 28, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s not theoretical math.  The aerosols in Costco have a much larger volume of air into which they can disperse.  The aerosols in a church have far smaller volume into which they can disperse, so concentrations will be higher.
> 
> This is the kind of thinking that public health officials do well, and lawyers do poorly.
> 
> Example:  Your above post thinks in terms of distance to the nearest person.  Why?  Two weeks ago you made a big point that, indoors, 6 feet and 60 feet are similar.  So learn from it.  If you believe your own point, then you should be paying attention to the risk from the ambient air at your church.  Having a whole balcony to yourself doesn‘t matter.  You’re still breathing air that comes from the other 25 families in the room with you.  If you all are masked and 6 feet apart, then the risk is proportionate to the average concentration in the airspace.  (And it’s time to do that theoretical computation you hate so much.  Math is good for things like “average concentration”.)


Your argument was “people per square foot”. Since 2 things can’t occupy the same space, you absolutely have to factor in space occupied by merchandise when doing that math.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 28, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 28, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (May 28, 2021)

“Getting every eligible Californian vaccinated is how we bring our state roaring back from this pandemic,” Newsom said.

While many states are offering various incentives to get vaccinated, California's decision to go with a lottery follows Ohio's lead. The Buckeye State awarded its first million-dollar prize this week to 22-year-old Abbigail Bugenske. 

But not all Californians agreed with the lottery.


----------



## crush (May 28, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> “Getting every eligible Californian vaccinated is how we bring our state roaring back from this pandemic,” Newsom said.
> 
> While many states are offering various incentives to get vaccinated, California's decision to go with a lottery follows Ohio's lead. The Buckeye State awarded its first million-dollar prize this week to 22-year-old Abbigail Bugenske.
> 
> But not all Californians agreed with the lottery.


Hurry, hurry, hurry folks.  Step right up and get your shots while supplies last.  Cash prizes for all volunteers and kids get free ice cream too.  You really can't make this up.  The chance to win $1,500,000 is making me tempted.  I was wondering in my little brain if I wait a little longer if the next round of prizes will have better odds of winning?  I just spoke to my pal and his son got $75 from his work.  Another pal told me if he get's his shot he keeps his wife.  No shot, no more wife.  This has become the ultimate divider or for some, the temptation of free donuts or lotto tickets makes them give in to the shots.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The virus was going to spread no matter what. The reality is people had to go to the store, get gas, etc. A significant amount of people had to work, etc. When you look at that, the virus was going to spread.
> 
> At best maybe people learn to stay home when they don't feel well.


And the dead?


----------



## crush (May 28, 2021)

The plot thickens.....









						Biden Tells Young Girl in Audience She Looks Like a "19 Year Old Little Lady"
					

Just a little bit creepy.




					rumble.com


----------



## crush (May 28, 2021)

*Scientists at Wuhan lab in COVID probe admitted being bitten by bats: reports*




Story out of Wuhan looks like the Bats got out of the Bat cages and went Bat shit crazy on all the lab workers.  It seems that some of the scientist weren't wearing proper gloves and bat bit into the glove and like a needle, they jab like their jabbing us with needles.  They got the real bat needle.  In one section, virus expert Cui Jie related how a bat’s fangs once went right through his glove, describing it as feeling "like being jabbed with a needle," the outlet noted.  So dude got attacked by wild bats, got bit and then got the Rona and then gave to roommate who then went to Wuhan Coffee shop and gave virus to someone who then spread it to us.  Other crazy super natural stories coming out of Wuhan like huge storms, flooding and earthquakes and so much more.  Pray for the people in China.  The other losers will have their day with Justice


----------



## crush (May 29, 2021)




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## crush (May 29, 2021)

I want to remember the 58,479 who went to fight a hellish war and died.  Why did they die?  I was adopted and my adopted mom's youngest son of blood fought in this horrible waste of precious blood of a war.  Seriously, WAFC!!!  17 years old and was a gunner on helicopter for 9 months.  He has PTSD but is doing really great today.  A police office saved his life and got him into the VA and they have been fantastic.  He lives in Florida and that state is kicking ass!!!


----------



## crush (May 29, 2021)

In honor of David my brother from another






Thank you brother David and to all the vets that gave up their lives to go fight a war that was evil.  I'm also sorry that you and all the others were lied to by assholes who were out to make money and have power.  Helicopter Gunner was one of the worst and most dangerous Army jobs in this senseless war.  50% chance of death.  They were always in combat and taking the dead and the wounded back to home base.  He said it was "hell on the hill."  He told me both sides would give up the stupid hill and then go after the hill the next day and the only thing that really happened was each side lost thousands of men on the hill.  A total waste of life to go and capture the hill.  BTW, he's in this video believe it or not


----------



## crush (May 29, 2021)

WHO is the father of the Virus?  WHO is Godfather of the plandemic?


----------



## tenacious (May 30, 2021)

I don't know if this is good news or bad news? But this COVID being created in a lab news story is an interesting one.  









						Tom Cotton once again makes media look foolish
					

There are dozens more “here’s how it started, here’s how it’s going” tweets from other news organizations that branded Cotton a conspiracy theorist.




					thehill.com


----------



## crush (May 30, 2021)

tenacious said:


> I don't know if this is good news or bad news? But this COVID being created in a lab news story is an interesting one.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I was born with the ability to catch a lie and I can tell within a few minutes if someone is blowing smoke up my brain.  Dr. F is 100% a liar and way worse.  I won't share what I know but when folks see the truth they will go nuts and cry a lot.  I watched live all those losers at those impeachment hearings about Russia Russia and more Russia were full of shit.  I hope you can see now WTFTIAHT all of us.  It's called "BS Smoke" to hide the kids who have been abused and used like no other humans can possibly imagine.  Dr. F and the elites have serious egg on face and all his pals have some serious splanin to do tenacious.  This was never about right or left or R vs D.  It's about telling the truth and only the truth, so help you God.  In this next planet shift, Children will come first and the first will be the one's who need to be born.  After that, we need to make sure EVERY kid has a bed to sleep in and folks to love them, not torture or sell them or worse, eat them and drink their fucking blood as a way to live.  We have some sick ass monsters living with us and they need to go live in hell and the Abyss.  WTFUDS!!!!


----------



## crush (May 30, 2021)




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## Grace T. (May 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> And the dead?


The sad reality is that people die in epidemics. That’s always been the case and it’s the height of hubris to think we are now advanced enough it could be different. The only thing we are arguing about is how many and what’s the cost. Short of an australia or China the thing was never going to be controlled.


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## Hüsker Dü (May 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The sad reality is that people die in epidemics. That’s always been the case and it’s the height of hubris to think we are now advanced enough it could be different. The only thing we are arguing about is how many and what’s the cost. Short of an australia or China the thing was never going to be controlled.


So why try so hard?


----------



## Desert Hound (May 31, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So why try so hard?


Because people like you who have been conditioned to believe gov can control a virus demand it.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (May 31, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Because people like you who have been conditioned to believe gov can control a virus demand it.


Who tells you these things? You ever think for yourself? Seems you lack the ability to reason.


----------



## Desert Hound (May 31, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Who tells you these things? You ever think for yourself? Seems you lack the ability to reason.


Hello Bueller? Bueller? 

You should read your posts. 

You lack of self awareness is fascinating. I give you a plus mark due to the fact that you never swam quite as deep as EOTL.


----------



## crush (Jun 1, 2021)




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## crush (Jun 1, 2021)

My pal has a pal in China and he say's it's insane weather going on.  Watch the Watters they say.  Q told me to tell all of you not to panic and live in fear.  I hear this week will be epic and biblical.  I'm just passing on information.  Take it with a grain of salt.  Lot's of rumors of this and that going on and false teachers everywhere.


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## crush (Jun 1, 2021)

*Extra, Extra, read all about it!!!!*


----------



## crush (Jun 1, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 1, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 1, 2021)




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## crush (Jun 1, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Jun 1, 2021)

Interesting article from a left newspaper.  2008 was a real black eye to the expert economic consensus, and people like Summers and Bernake.  They were shown up by some scrappy outsiders.  And the crisis directly led to the rise of the Sanders left and the Trumpian populist right.

If the possibility of an engineered virus lab leak moves from the possible to the probable, it may very well have another similar affect against the  health expert class and another blow to the establishment rule, particularly if it turns out the US (whether through Fauci or not) had a hand in it.  The avatar moves health experts from a Saint Fauci icon to Dr. Frankenstein.









						If the Wuhan lab-leak hypothesis is true, expect a political earthquake | Thomas Frank
					

The potential consequences of the origins of the virus are shattering – if they can be proved




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interesting article from a left newspaper.  2008 was a real black eye to the expert economic consensus, and people like Summers and Bernake.  They were shown up by some scrappy outsiders.  And the crisis directly led to the rise of the Sanders left and the Trumpian populist right.
> 
> If the possibility of an engineered virus lab leak moves from the possible to the probable, it may very well have another similar affect against the  health expert class and another blow to the establishment rule, particularly if it turns out the US (whether through Fauci or not) had a hand in it.  The avatar moves health experts from a Saint Fauci icon to Dr. Frankenstein.
> 
> ...


"Because if the hypothesis is right, it will soon start to dawn on people that our mistake was not insufficient reverence for scientists, or inadequate respect for expertise, or not enough censorship on Facebook. _It was a failure to think critically about all of the above_, to understand that there is no such thing as absolute expertise. Think of all the disasters of recent years: economic neoliberalism, destructive trade policies, the Iraq War, the housing bubble, banks that are “too big to fail,” mortgage-backed securities, the Hillary Clinton campaign of 2016 — all of these disasters brought to you by the total, self-assured unanimity of the highly educated people who are supposed to know what they’re doing, plus the total complacency of the highly educated people who are supposed to be supervising them."

A major problem we have is that the press basically goes one way. So for example in the virus theory since T said it might have come from the lab, most of the press reflexively went the other way. They were concerned about sides and scoring points vs pursuing the truth. 

It is unfortunate, but most of what is reported daily is done through the prism of a political point of view. And unfortunately the vast majority of the press leans heavily one way. Note: I would not want the reverse where the press leaned heavily the other way. 

With the lab leak theory anyone who wondered if that actually happened were told the theory had been debunked, or they were Trumpys or just plain conspiracy theorists. 

Now that it is allowable to discuss it, suddenly the press is talking about it. The fact that now they are and they were not a year ago says a lot about how the press works. They had little interest in looking at it objectively because T might be right. They were more interesting in playing gotcha vs actually investigating the origins of a virus that shut down most of the world. That seems to be a rather big story if true, and yet they spent their time telling everyone it was crazy to think it was a man made virus. 

Funny how quickly things change. It may turn out to be naturally occurring in the end. But that isn't the point. They should have been digging into the story.

If one only gets their info from one side of the spectrum, they are not getting the full story. Or at a min they will lack some of the nuance of the issue. If for instance you only read the NY Times, you generally only hear reasons why taxes shouldn't be lowered, or why taxes should be increased. They never give a good overview of why there are reasons why taxes should be lowered. The reader doesn't get a full view of both sides of the issue. 

And that lack of both sides of the issue relates to the false Russian angle with Trump, the lack of interest into the origins of the virus, etc. 

It behooves people to read news from a range of sources to get a better understanding of issues vs reading/watching those that agree with ones point of view.


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## watfly (Jun 1, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "Because if the hypothesis is right, it will soon start to dawn on people that our mistake was not insufficient reverence for scientists, or inadequate respect for expertise, or not enough censorship on Facebook. _It was a failure to think critically about all of the above_, to understand that there is no such thing as absolute expertise. Think of all the disasters of recent years: economic neoliberalism, destructive trade policies, the Iraq War, the housing bubble, banks that are “too big to fail,” mortgage-backed securities, the Hillary Clinton campaign of 2016 — all of these disasters brought to you by the total, self-assured unanimity of the highly educated people who are supposed to know what they’re doing, plus the total complacency of the highly educated people who are supposed to be supervising them."
> 
> A major problem we have is that the press basically goes one way. So for example in the virus theory since T said it might have come from the lab, most of the press reflexively went the other way. They were concerned about sides and scoring points vs pursuing the truth.
> 
> ...


The crazy part about the lab story is its not a left or right story...its not a partisan issue.  It was media "debunked" only because Trump thought it was worth investigating.  Same thing happened initially with the "Trump vaccine".  Unfortunately, in a way its just an extension of identity politics where we consider the individual/group, or the consider the skin color, gender, orientation, ethnicity as a factor greater than the actual facts.  (Now there was some stupid crap that came out of Trump's mouth, but in this case there was some evidence that the media just chose to ignore and not investigate.)


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## Desert Hound (Jun 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> The crazy part about the lab story is its not a left or right story...its not a partisan issue.  It was media "debunked" only because Trump thought it was worth investigating.  Same thing happened initially with the "Trump vaccine".  Unfortunately, in a way its just an extension of identity politics where we consider the individual/group, or the consider the skin color, gender, orientation, ethnicity as a factor greater than the actual facts.  (Now there was some stupid crap that came out of Trump's mouth, but in this case there was some evidence that the media just chose to ignore and not investigate.)


It certainly should never have been a partisan issue. 

The story potentially is one of the biggest ever. If a virus was man made, leaked out of a lab and shut down much of the world economy, it is hard to think of a bigger story...EVER. 

All politicians say dumb things. The press however should not base coverage of issues based on that. 

To be honest maybe more disturbing is how Facebook, Twitter and Youtube basically were censoring posts related to talking about the virus being man made. If they were small sites this would not matter. The fact that today they are essentially the town square and they are shutting down debate is quite frankly rather chilling.


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## crush (Jun 1, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> *The story potentially is one of the biggest ever*. If (no more if's ands or butts bro)) a virus was man made, leaked out of a lab and shut down much of the world economy,* it is hard to think of a bigger story...EVER.
> 
> more disturbing is how Facebook*, Twitter and Youtube basically were censoring posts related to talking about the virus being man made.


Hound, I know of only one bigger story but it hasn't happen yet  Remember back in 2019 and the sore losers? My gosh, the same one's who started their either or BS on Fakebook are the same ones going around telling us to get our shots and what's the freaking hold up. Yes, the same one's who said I'm a racist just because they were and kneeled and wanted me to kneel. Yup, easy to spot now. Nowhere to run or hide. It will come down to a choice and once people see the truth, they will kneel bro   Also, my bro told me about some of his best, best pals from 9 months of hell in Vietnam that were killed for no good reason we find out were some of the bravest and amazing men he met.  He went in at 17.  I'm starting to think we lost some really really gr8t men and woman over the years in these senseless wars and the one's who made it out alive need are love & support.  Bankers playing war games with our kids blood is BS!!!  I was for Iraq war before I found out the truth.  The truth will set us all free.  The only one's not getting the truth are the one's who run and hide from it because their life has been one BIG Lie!!!  Cheaters and sore freaking losers.


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## crush (Jun 1, 2021)




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## Grace T. (Jun 1, 2021)

If this is real, what happened to the guy?  TDS?  Realized he might have had a hand in starting it?  Bought the Chinese propaganda?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1399869943915626501


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## kickingandscreaming (Jun 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If this is real, what happened to the guy?  TDS?  Realized he might have had a hand in starting it?  Bought the Chinese propaganda?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1399869943915626501


Power? Ego?


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Power? Ego?


So far the most compelling argument I’ve heard is from Ben Shapiro: fauci like Robert’s is an institutionalist...he’ll take the path of least resistance to protect the institution


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So far the most compelling argument I’ve heard is from Ben Shapiro: fauci like Robert’s is an institutionalist...he’ll take the path of least resistance to protect the institution


Interesting studies out in Mexico and Uttar Pradesh.   Ivermectin significantly reduces chances of people being hospitalized if infected.  Faucis reluctance to look at repurposed meds (whether due to the pressure to reject trumps stance on hdq or his relationship with the vaccine cos and the bargain struck for warp speed) probably killed people.


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interesting studies out in Mexico and Uttar Pradesh.   Ivermectin significantly reduces chances of people being hospitalized if infected.  Faucis reluctance to look at repurposed meds (whether due to the pressure to reject trumps stance on hdq or his relationship with the vaccine cos and the bargain struck for warp speed) probably killed people.


Further the fauci email dumps show he was clearly warned by respected experts and colleagues about the possibility that what was lab released was gain of function and that China was lying about the early success of containment measures.


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## crush (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Further the fauci email dumps show he was clearly warned by respected experts and colleagues about the possibility that what was lab released was gain of function and that China was lying about the early success of containment measures.


BTW Grace, Iran's largest warship just sank.  News reports ((who shall we believe?)) are saying that one of the fellas on the ship was smoking a joint down below the deck and it started a fire or something like that.  Dams are overflowing in China too.  Watch for the $$$$ dam to break and then it will get scary.  "Do not f*ear*, God is h*ear*."  Listen with your *ears* what your *brain* is saying.  Don;t listen to your heart.  It's deceitful and beyond repair.  Trust me.  Listen to your brain Gracie.  I believe God will help us at the last last minute.  Fear has to do with punishment and control.  Perfect love drives fear out!  DR. F dam just broke.  I'm interested to see how one of my best pals react to all these emails.  He respects Dr. F and I never did.  I didnt trust him or his best pal Billy boy who was also best pals with Jeffrey and we all know who he worked for.  This is and was always about Good vs Evil.  Dr. Evil is real Grace and it's not Dr. F


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Further the fauci email dumps show he was clearly warned by respected experts and colleagues about the possibility that what was lab released was gain of function and that China was lying about the early success of containment measures.


So you have read them all?


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## Desert Hound (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So far the most compelling argument I’ve heard is from Ben Shapiro: fauci like Robert’s is an institutionalist...he’ll take the path of least resistance to protect the institution


You don't work your entire career in gov, advance and not be an institutionalist. He would never have gotten to his position otherwise.


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## Desert Hound (Jun 2, 2021)

espola said:


> So you have read them all?


Ever notice that your default position is basically the gov position or the status quo?


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## Desert Hound (Jun 2, 2021)

"A little more than a year after Governor Gavin Newsom instituted the lockdowns, *nearly a third of California restaurants have closed permanently*."

I guess takeout didn't sustain them eh @dad4 ?

"According to The Associated Press, California’s lockdowns have left the food industry battered and bruised in the Golden State. Prior to the pandemic, up to 76,000 eating and drinking establishments *employed up to 1.8 million people*. Those numbers dropped precipitously as the lockdowns continued throughout 2020 and into 2021. Though the state has eased restrictions over the past few weeks, *about two-third of the industry’s employees lost their jobs at least temporarily* and employment *remains a quarter below what had existed prior to the pandemic*."

These are people/biz that didn't get a paycheck from the gov to sit at home in the basement wearing a mask by the way.


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Ever notice that your default position is basically the gov position or the status quo?


That was a question, not a position statement.


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So far the most compelling argument I’ve heard is from Ben Shapiro: fauci like Robert’s is an institutionalist...he’ll take the path of least resistance to protect the institution


I find it interesting, but not surprising, that you would find Ben Shapiro "compelling".


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## Desert Hound (Jun 2, 2021)

espola said:


> That was a question, not a position statement.


Yep and your questions always takes the point of view of the status quo or the gov position interestingly enough.


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "A little more than a year after Governor Gavin Newsom instituted the lockdowns, *nearly a third of California restaurants have closed permanently*."t knowing
> 
> I guess takeout didn't sustain them eh @dad4 ?
> 
> ...


Without knowing the proportion of restaurants that would fail in any "normal" year, it is hard to judge the significance of that fact.  This helped a little, but didn't directly address the question --









						2019 Small Business Failure Rate: Startup Statistics by Industry | NBC&S
					

2019 was a great year for some small businesses, but not for others. Learn everything you need to know about the 2019 small business failure rate.




					www.national.biz


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep and your questions always takes the point of view of the status quo or the gov position interestingly enough.


That's an opinion without supporting data.


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

espola said:


> I find it interesting, but not surprising, that you would find Ben Shapiro "compelling".


My original post on this line of thought was from the guardian.  Interesting too?


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## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Ever notice that your default position is basically the gov position or the status quo?


I think his default position is more to nitpick other's arguments instead of providing any substantive evidence of his own.


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> I think his default position is more to nitpick other's arguments instead of providing any substantive evidence of his own.


Fact checker.  

As for not providing substantive evidence, I just posted a link to a study of the rate of small business failures.


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> I think his default position is more to nitpick other's arguments instead of providing any substantive evidence of his own.


Yeah he thinks it makes him look clever.  He's taken pride of bragging about doing the same in other forums in the past.  Sad.


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah he thinks it makes him look clever.  He's taken pride of bragging about doing the same in other forums in the past.  Sad.


Bragging?

You haven't answered my question about Fauci's emails, so I will assume the answer is "no". Therefore you are relying on someone else's opinions about them.  Is it fair to ask who that is?  Is t Ben Shapiro?


----------



## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah he thinks it makes him look clever.  He's taken pride of bragging about doing the same in other forums in the past.  Sad.


He seems to take the "throw the baby out with the bath water" approach, if he can disparage the author or the source, or chip away at some immaterial element of the story then he's "won" the debate.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah he thinks it makes him look clever.  He's taken pride of bragging about doing the same in other forums in the past.  Sad.


Comparing covid era restaurant closures against trend lines is just good analysis.  I have no idea how the comparison works out, but it is absolutely a good way to look at the question.

What you did in the above post was to ignore the argument and instead attack the person.  Again.


----------



## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

Dad4

For your benefit:









						Australia's economy is now STRONGER than it was before Covid-19
					

Australia's economy has rebounded much quicker than expected after growing a massive 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year as strict Covid-19 restrictions have been eased.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Comparing covid era restaurant closures against trend lines is just good analysis.  I have no idea how the comparison works out, but it is absolutely a good way to look at the question.
> 
> What you did in the above post was to ignore the argument and instead attack the person.  Again.


I'm not a part of that argument.  I'm making an observation based on an observation watfly made about what the modus operandi for him is.  As ou know, I have an interest in such things. People interest me far more than numbers.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> Dad4
> 
> For your benefit:
> 
> ...


Counterpoint: but the cost....everything is a tradeoff


----------



## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Comparing covid era restaurant closures against trend lines is just good analysis.  I have no idea how the comparison works out, but it is absolutely a good way to look at the question.
> 
> What you did in the above post was to ignore the argument and instead attack the person.  Again.


An old philosopher once said that when you tell a lie about someone, that person knows right away that you are a liar.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

espola said:


> Bragging?
> 
> You haven't answered my question about Fauci's emails, so I will assume the answer is "no". Therefore you are relying on someone else's opinions about them.  Is it fair to ask who that is?  Is t Ben Shapiro?


I haven't read all the emails.  I have read article and twitter posts, both left and right, from a variety of sources about them.  Know you don't believe it but my reading sources range from the Guardian and Nation, to New Republic, to Washington Post, to National Review, to the Federalist and Ben Shapiro.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

espola said:


> An old philosopher once said that when you tell a lie about someone, that person knows right away that you are a liar.


"We're all victims of our own hubris at times"-- Kevin Spacey.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I haven't read all the emails.  I have read article and twitter posts, both left and right, from a variety of sources about them.  Know you don't believe it but my reading sources range from the Guardian and Nation, to New Republic, to Washington Post, to National Review, to the Federalist and Ben Shapiro.


p.s. if you are going to read just 1, read the physicist that wrote to Fauci at the start. It's another example of the scrappy outsider getting it right and absolutely nailing everything (coming waive, failure of containment, China cover up, lab leak, the mutations, the time frame for the start, US outbreak already in progress and running ahead of Italy).  Fauci declines to read it on the grounds it's too long.  I don't really blame him for that.  Even if he cultivated a reputation for reading everyone's emails including some woman who was afraid to get on a plane for work, and even answered her.  But still, this physicist just nailed everything while Fauci was flailing.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> Dad4
> 
> For your benefit:
> 
> ...


I know.  The disease itself was a huge drain on the economy, and OZ/NZ avoided that part of the damage.   Places which did a go early, go hard approach seem to have done better economically.   CA will start doing better as case rates near zero and offices reopen.  

I wonder if we will get our act together on vaccines before the bad weather hits in the fall.  I think  617.2 (india/delta) variant has the numbers it needs to be able to grow in the high seroprevalence, low vaccination rate parts of the country- especially when it gets a boost for bad weather.


----------



## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> p.s. if you are going to read just 1, read the physicist that wrote to Fauci at the start. It's another example of the scrappy outsider getting it right and absolutely nailing everything (coming waive, failure of containment, China cover up, lab leak, the mutations, the time frame for the start, US outbreak already in progress and running ahead of Italy).  Fauci declines to read it on the grounds it's too long.  I don't really blame him for that.  Even if he cultivated a reputation for reading everyone's emails including some woman who was afraid to get on a plane for work, and even answered her.  But still, this physicist just nailed everything while Fauci was flailing.


Erik Nielsen?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Places which did a go early, go hard approach seem to have done better economically.


What?

There have been an abundance of reports showing red states have done better.









						Latest economic data show red states crushing blue states — and here’s why
					

The good news is our economic recovery from the pandemic is finally underway. The bad news is that it’s going a lot slower in blue states than red states — thanks to foolish big-government policies.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com
				












						Opinion | Red and Blue States of Recovery
					

Joe Biden’s ‘K-shaped’ economy is made in the lockdown states.




					www.wsj.com
				












						Red State Recovery, Blue State Recession
					

A review of current state unemployment rates reveals a stark partisan divide between the states with the highest and lowest unemployment rates. As the chart below reflects, nine of ten states with the highest recent unemployment rates have a Democratic governor (the tenth is deep-blue...




					www.aei.org
				












						Why Blue Places Have Been Hit Harder Economically Than Red Ones (Published 2020)
					

The different mix of jobs is a big driver, but there are other factors, too.




					www.nytimes.com
				












						Red state economies recovering from coronavirus faster than blue states: Stephen Moore
					

FreedomWorks economist Stephen Moore breaks down economic data in red states and blue states.




					finance.yahoo.com
				




etc etc.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> What?
> 
> There have been an abundance of reports showing red states have done better.
> 
> ...


In fairness to him, he has been consistent in saying either go early (though which requires multiple lockdowns and even in places like Taiwan and South Korea failed to completely quell) or don't go very much....Newsom's half-in half-out approach being disastrous.



dad4 said:


> I know.  The disease itself was a huge drain on the economy, and OZ/NZ avoided that part of the damage.   Places which did a go early, go hard approach seem to have done better economically.   CA will start doing better as case rates near zero and offices reopen.
> 
> I wonder if we will get our act together on vaccines before the bad weather hits in the fall.  I think  617.2 (india/delta) variant has the numbers it needs to be able to grow in the high seroprevalence, low vaccination rate parts of the country- especially when it gets a boost for bad weather.


Seems to already be happening in the UK where cases are rising, but only slightly.  Infections delayed through lockdown+India variant- vaccination- weather effect.  Their vaccination approach is also slightly different than ours, prioritizing first doses instead of 2nd.  deaths and hospitalizations still on the floor.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 2, 2021)

By the way what is interesting about the Fauci emails coming to light is this. 

He was initially not too concerned about Covid.

Why is that important? 

Because the press blamed the Prez at the time for not being concerned enough, didn't do enough etc. 

Who is the expert on these matters that advises the Administration? 

The press again didn't play neutral observer in all of this. Their reporting for the most part mirrored political talking points. And unfortunately this type of reporting has the terrible effect of dividing the country. But it sells papers and ad revenue...so carry on!


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In fairness to him, he has been consistent in saying either go early (though which requires multiple lockdowns and even in places like Taiwan and South Korea failed to completely quell) or don't go very much....Newsom's half-in half-out approach being disastrous.


Not sure he advocated or don't go very much. He was and has been a strong lockdown proponent.


----------



## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> What?
> 
> There have been an abundance of reports showing red states have done better.
> 
> ...


So much to sort through, particularly long term.  It's not just the lockdown restrictions, its also the social policies that were implemented that may not go away, like enhanced unemployment.  We pay more than $15 to start at an entry level position and we can't seem to find qualified individuals.  And when I say qualified, I mean someone who will show up to work on time and do their job.   Seems everyone we look to hire has a restraining order or some criminal record.  Those we do hire are only lasting a couple weeks before quitting while maximizing their sick leave during the short time period.

My biggest concern though is the ramifications to our society from the educational interruption.  Particularly for the underprivileged.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way what is interesting about the Fauci emails coming to light is this.
> 
> He was initially not too concerned about Covid.
> 
> ...


Yeah, but not all on him, except to the extent you blame his gullibility.  He seemed to believe the Chinese propaganda at first that it was all containable, and then when they switched to lockdown immediately, seemed to buy in 100% to that.  Same as he bought into the Chinese explanations about it not being a lab leak.



Desert Hound said:


> Not sure he advocated or don't go very much. He was and has been a strong lockdown proponent.


He's said before go early or (in his mind) not at all if you are concerned about the economy.  I agree between those 2 choices he favors go early, go hard.

Incidentally the rules in Nevada right now are even less sciency than California.  No masks, bars and indoor dining open, no elevator capacity limits and players tables in the casino open, but night clubs still shut.  No valet service, no room service except in select hotels, plastic barriers still up, relentless cleaning of surfaces still up.  We know why: They care more about the appearance of safety to sell the casinos to people.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 2, 2021)

Nevada was perfectly happy to run a continuous covid breeding ground throughout the pandemic.   Same as Florida wanted to get the spring break money.  Or Louisiana wanting the Mardi Gras money last year. 

In all cases, you have a state wanting an economic gain, and willing to take high risks with tourist health to get it.  It’s why we needed national standards and travel restrictions last year.  States won’t do it.  Not many places are willing to damage their tourist industry to save out of state lives.


----------



## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> In all cases, you have a state wanting an economic gain, and willing to take high risks with tourist health to get it.  It’s why we needed national standards and travel restrictions last year.  States won’t do it.  Not many places are willing to damage their tourist industry to save out of state lives.


I'm not a constitutional expert but I'm pretty sure our government can't prohibit interstate travel or can implement a nationwide quarantine.  Remember that Cuomo had a shit fit when Trump even mentioned banning travel from NY.  How many Democrat governors would have tolerated a travel ban imposed by Trump...actually the Republican governors wouldn't have tolerated it either.  Unfortunately in the US, responding to a pandemic can't be separated from political ideologies.  I don't think your suggestions pass the legal, or reality test.  

Let's be perfectly honest here, there is far more correlation between lockdowns and the economy, then there is lockdowns and Covid.  At least, in the US and non-island countries.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nevada was perfectly happy to run a continuous covid breeding ground throughout the pandemic.   Same as Florida wanted to get the spring break money.  Or Louisiana wanting the Mardi Gras money last year.
> 
> In all cases, you have a state wanting an economic gain, and willing to take high risks with tourist health to get it.  It’s why we needed national standards and travel restrictions last year.  States won’t do it.  Not many places are willing to damage their tourist industry to save out of state lives.


But Hawaii chose to shoot itself in the head so it's not true states won't do it.  They all make a choice.  Florida chose to minimize restrictions, particularly those low risk restrictions, which was also a choice.   My complaint about Nevada is that it's choices are stupid: it's doing the security theatre but allowed the high risk stuff to go on (even now, post-vaccination there's still a lot of theater).  

I agree with Watfly...with federal government even if the courts allow it to pass constitutionally, there was no political way it would have been possible.  I personally would have gotten great satisfaction seeing all the well off New Yorkers stuck in New York city during the pandemic, but Cuomo and the Ds would have exploded had Trump tried that.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'm not a constitutional expert but I'm pretty sure our government can't prohibit interstate travel or can implement a nationwide quarantine.  Remember that Cuomo had a shit fit when Trump even mentioned banning travel from NY.  How many Democrat governors would have tolerated a travel ban imposed by Trump...actually the Republican governors wouldn't have tolerated it either.  Unfortunately in the US, responding to a pandemic can't be separated from political ideologies.  I don't think your suggestions pass the legal, or reality test.
> 
> Let's be perfectly honest here, there is far more correlation between lockdowns and the economy, then there is lockdowns and Covid.  At least, in the US and non-island countries.


Not only can the government restrict interstate travel, but they have before.  Travel restrictions and travel quarantines during pandemics used to be the norm.  

You’re probably right that people would have screamed to no end.  But locking down NYC in March 2020 would have meant a lot fewer people died in other states in April and May.  Most of the April cases outside of NYC were due to rich New Yorkers flying to vacation homes and bringing the virus with them.


----------



## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not only can the government restrict interstate travel, but they have before.  Travel restrictions and travel quarantines during pandemics used to be the norm.
> 
> You’re probably right that people would have screamed to no end.  But locking down NYC in March 2020 would have meant a lot fewer people died in other states in April and May.  Most of the April cases outside of NYC were due to rich New Yorkers flying to vacation homes and bringing the virus with them.


Here is an interesting article about interstate travel restrictions.  I don't think it's cut and dried as either of us think, but the way I read it (if its correct) is that you can't restrict travel of or quarantine otherwise non-exposed and healthy people.   You really have to err on the side of freedom, not fear.






						The Right to Travel and National Quarantines: Coronavirus Tests the Limits
					






					www.law.georgetown.edu
				



.


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## Desert Hound (Jun 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> My biggest concern though is the ramifications to our society from the educational interruption. Particularly for the underprivileged.


They got SCREWED. 

Let me give you one example. 

Last spring I went north to play some golf at my CC in Flagstaff. It was April I believe. 2 high schoolers played in our group. I asked them about school. They said school was done. NO internet classes, etc. They said you could take your grade as is, OR do extra work. The extra work could only help and not hurt. I asked why there wasn't any online classes. They stated that a large portion of the student population lived on the Navajo Reservation and had little to no internet connection. So those kids were out of luck. 

Flagstaff didn't open much this year for school. Guess which kids still lacked internet access?


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## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

Stumbled across this one from New England Journal of Medicine:



			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2004211
		


They said it better than anyone on Team Virus could (well actually they just have more credibility):

_*Despite the breadth and allure of travel bans and mandatory quarantine, an effective response to Covid-19 requires newer, more creative legal tools. With Covid-19 in our communities, the time has come to imagine and implement public health laws that emphasize support rather than restriction.*_


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## Desert Hound (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Incidentally the rules in Nevada right now are even less sciency than California. No masks, bars and indoor dining open, no elevator capacity limits and players tables in the casino open, but night clubs still shut. No valet service, no room service except in select hotels, plastic barriers still up, relentless cleaning of surfaces still up. We know why: They care more about the appearance of safety to sell the casinos to people.


Yeah I have been to Vegas and Laughlin in the past month. A lot of safety theatre going on there. Playing poker is interesting. Everyone is in their cubicle.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> Here is an interesting article about interstate travel restrictions.  I don't think it's cut and dried as either of us think, but the way I read it (if its correct) is that you can't restrict travel of or quarantine otherwise non-exposed and healthy people.   You really have to err on the side of freedom, not fear.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yup with the states having power to restrict travel in and out themselves (so long as it applies to their citizens and citizens of other states alike)> federal government restricting international travel> the federal government restricting travel between the states.


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## dad4 (Jun 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> Here is an interesting article about interstate travel restrictions.  I don't think it's cut and dried as either of us think, but the way I read it (if its correct) is that you can't restrict travel of or quarantine otherwise non-exposed and healthy people.   You really have to err on the side of freedom, not fear.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The “only quarantine the sick” standard doesn’t work very well for a disease with significant ore-symptomatic transmission.  Nor is it even possible to meaningfully define the “least restrictive measure” when you are early in the pandemic.  You just do not have the information needed to make that calculation.

This is the basic problem with lawyers playing junior epidemiologist.  They simply are not qualified to understand the solutions they propose.  Most of them have not taken a college level biology class, let alone completed the coursework necessary to understand epidemic growth.  It would take years to bring them up to speed, even if they were willing to try.


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The “only quarantine the sick” standard doesn’t work very well for a disease with significant ore-symptomatic transmission.  Nor is it even possible to meaningfully define the “least restrictive measure” when you are early in the pandemic.  You just do not have the information needed to make that calculation.
> 
> This is the basic problem with lawyers playing junior epidemiologist.  They simply are not qualified to understand the solutions they propose.  Most of them have not taken a college level biology class, let alone completed the coursework necessary to understand epidemic growth.  It would take years to bring them up to speed, even if they were willing to try.


You're expert rallying again.  That's what leads to the disastrous results like 2008 and the pandemic response.  The experts are horrible at weighing all the factors.  What's more is that they can't weigh all the interests at stake here....that requires not just epidemiologists but field doctors, nurses, business organizations, teachers, PTA (yeah I know...it's supposed to act for the students but has been captured by the teachers unions), economists, pediatricians, psychologists, engineers, the pharmaceutical industry, and yes lawyers (because the lawyers care about our rights).  In the end you need the guy who mixes his metaphors to make the right call (but we usually got the self-interested politicians like Trump and Biden, DeSantis and Newsom making those calls).  We don't want to rely solely on epidemiologist because the experts only know 1 aspect of the problem and are more often wrong than right because of a variety of factors (institutionalism, tunnel vision, self-preservation, hubris),.


----------



## crush (Jun 2, 2021)




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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You're expert rallying again.  That's what leads to the disastrous results like 2008 and the pandemic response.  The experts are horrible at weighing all the factors.  What's more is that they can't weigh all the interests at stake here....that requires not just epidemiologists but field doctors, nurses, business organizations, teachers, PTA (yeah I know...it's supposed to act for the students but has been captured by the teachers unions), economists, pediatricians, psychologists, engineers, the pharmaceutical industry, and yes lawyers (because the lawyers care about our rights).  In the end you need the guy who mixes his metaphors to make the right call (but we usually got the self-interested politicians like Trump and Biden, DeSantis and Newsom making those calls).  We don't want to rely solely on epidemiologist because the experts only know 1 aspect of the problem and are more often wrong than right because of a variety of factors (institutionalism, tunnel vision, self-preservation, hubris),.


Oh and it would be nice if we had a media that actually functioned to act as a check on these actors.  But we don't.  Instead we have the propaganda arm of the 2 political parties, which leaves us with the scrappy outsiders and the internet as the great leveller (which is why the censorship moves of the big tech companies are very scary).


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## crush (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh and it would be nice if we had a media that actually functioned to act as a check on these actors.  But we don't.  Instead we have the propaganda arm of the 2 political parties, which leaves us with the scrappy outsiders and the internet as the great leveller (which is why the censorship moves of the big tech companies are very scary).


Crush is always here to help where I can.  I'm for non violence btw.  I have no party affiliation, just American and just me, myself and my constitution.  I have no weapons except my mouth, my words and my opinion.  My wife and kids can speak for themselves.  Man I tell you Grace, some people, when they get caught cheating, they get really defensive or are just flat out living a lie and living in denial.


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## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The “only quarantine the sick” standard doesn’t work very well for a disease with significant ore-symptomatic transmission.  Nor is it even possible to meaningfully define the “least restrictive measure” when you are early in the pandemic.  You just do not have the information needed to make that calculation.
> 
> This is the basic problem with lawyers playing junior epidemiologist.  They simply are not qualified to understand the solutions they propose.  Most of them have not taken a college level biology class, let alone completed the coursework necessary to understand epidemic growth.  It would take years to bring them up to speed, even if they were willing to try.


Yeah, the laws of this country are fairly irrelevant when it comes to a pandemic, WTF.  Are we talking about the same pandemic that 99.8% of our population survived and 99.5% were never hospitalized for?

I think your response probably illustrates even better than I could have put it, why we will never agree.


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## dad4 (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You're expert rallying again.  That's what leads to the disastrous results like 2008 and the pandemic response.  The experts are horrible at weighing all the factors.  What's more is that they can't weigh all the interests at stake here....that requires not just epidemiologists but field doctors, nurses, business organizations, teachers, PTA (yeah I know...it's supposed to act for the students but has been captured by the teachers unions), economists, pediatricians, psychologists, engineers, the pharmaceutical industry, and yes lawyers (because the lawyers care about our rights).  In the end you need the guy who mixes his metaphors to make the right call (but we usually got the self-interested politicians like Trump and Biden, DeSantis and Newsom making those calls).  We don't want to rely solely on epidemiologist because the experts only know 1 aspect of the problem and are more often wrong than right because of a variety of factors (institutionalism, tunnel vision, self-preservation, hubris),.


Just pointing out that the judges making up these rules couldn't pass the biology GREs if you allowed them double time and an open book.

They don't know jack, but they think they do.  It's a dangerous combination.


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just pointing out that the judges making up these rules couldn't pass the biology GREs if you allowed them double time and an open book.
> 
> They don't know jack, but they think they do.  It's a dangerous combination.


That's why there's expert testimony allowed in courts.  But they don't want the health experts making the legal decisions because the health experts don't know the rights and don't balance the competing interests.  And there are checks on the judge in the form of the court of appeals and the Supreme Court, so the arguments can be better vetted over time, which is why the wheels of justice move slowly.  It's positively Lockeian in its construction.

What's dangerous is having an expert like Fauci make all the decisions, when he only knows his 1 narrow field, is primed to protect his institution, and is subject to hubris.  That's the recipe not only for disaster (given all the mistakes he's made along the way) but also for totalitarianism.


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## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just pointing out that the judges making up these rules couldn't pass the biology GREs if you allowed them double time and an open book.
> 
> They don't know jack, but they think they do.  It's a dangerous combination.


Just FYI, judges don't determine public health policy, or even the effectiveness of public health policy.  They only determine the legality of policies when requested by another party.


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## Hüsker Dü (Jun 2, 2021)

espola said:


> Bragging?
> 
> You haven't answered my question about Fauci's emails, so I will assume the answer is "no". Therefore you are relying on someone else's opinions about them.  Is it fair to ask who that is?  Is t Ben Shapiro?


I love when you nail them and they start squirming like exposed worms.


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## Hüsker Dü (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "We're all victims of our own hubris at times"-- Kevin Spacey.


Telling who one quotes.


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The “only quarantine the sick” standard doesn’t work very well for a disease with significant ore-symptomatic transmission.  Nor is it even possible to meaningfully define the “least restrictive measure” when you are early in the pandemic.  You just do not have the information needed to make that calculation.
> 
> This is the basic problem with lawyers playing junior epidemiologist.  They simply are not qualified to understand the solutions they propose.  Most of them have not taken a college level biology class, let alone completed the coursework necessary to understand epidemic growth.  It would take years to bring them up to speed, even if they were willing to try.


Those who predict the pandemic is going away will eventually be right, and they will hope we forget how many died after they first predicted it.


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Telling who one quotes.


His downfall makes the quote all the more poignant


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

espola said:


> Those who predict the pandemic is going away will eventually be right, and they will hope we forget how many died after they first predicted it.


Nah....we've just been honest with people that once China did this, a certain amount of death was unavoidable and was always baked in.  We've just been arguing about the margins, both in terms of lives and economics.


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nah....we've just been honest with people that once China did this, a certain amount of death was unavoidable and was always baked in.  We've just been arguing about the margins, both in terms of lives and economics.


Why did you think I was referring to you?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

espola said:


> Why did you think I was referring to you?


You have a tendency to conflate us all in 1 boat (as we do you)


----------



## dad4 (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's why there's expert testimony allowed in courts.  But they don't want the health experts making the legal decisions because the health experts don't know the rights and don't balance the competing interests.  And there are checks on the judge in the form of the court of appeals and the Supreme Court, so the arguments can be better vetted over time, which is why the wheels of justice move slowly.  It's positively Lockeian in its construction.
> 
> What's dangerous is having an expert like Fauci make all the decisions, when he only knows his 1 narrow field, is primed to protect his institution, and is subject to hubris.  That's the recipe not only for disaster (given all the mistakes he's made along the way) but also for totalitarianism.


Most judges are not qualified to understand the expert testimony.  Neither are the appellate court judges or the supreme court justices.

The point is not that there should be no legal review. 
The point is that the legal review should be competent.   We need minimum scientific training for judges who rule on scientific matters.


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## Chelsea dad g09 (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Most judges are not qualified to understand the expert testimony.  Neither are the appellate court judges or the supreme court justices.
> 
> The point is not that there should be no legal review.
> The point is that the legal review should be competent.   We need minimum scientific training for judges who rule on scientific matters.


Wow.


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You have a tendency to conflate us all in 1 boat (as we do you)


I was referring to t and his closest minions, those that supported his covid hoax, over by April, 15 dead, bullshit.  I don't think you are in that group.  Are you?


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Most judges are not qualified to understand the expert testimony.  Neither are the appellate court judges or the supreme court justices.
> 
> The point is not that there should be no legal review.
> The point is that the legal review should be competent.   We need minimum scientific training for judges who rule on scientific matters.


The way expert testimony is allowed in our courts is ludicrous.  Each side hires a qualified expert whose testimony is rehearsed to support their position.  I was a juror in a civil trial where the expert hired by the plaintiff calculated a damage of several hundred thousand dollars.  The defense expert calculated a damage of zero.  Soon after the trial, we were sharing a table at a country club dinner with a lawyer.  After I told him my story about experts, he named both of them.


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## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

espola said:


> The way expert testimony is allowed in our courts is ludicrous.  Each side hires a qualified expert whose testimony is rehearsed to support their position.  I was a juror in a civil trial where the expert hired by the plaintiff calculated a damage of several hundred thousand dollars.  The defense expert calculated a damage of zero.  Soon after the trial, we were sharing a table at a country club dinner with a lawyer.  After I told him my story about experts, he named both of them.


There are two types of expert witnesses. There are those that are experts at being expert witnesses, and those that are experts in their field that give expert testimony.  The former don't typically last very long.  Legitimate experts understand that it takes many years to develop your reputation and credibility and one case to destroy it,

Your trial is an example of one and not a very good one at that.  In a case where only several hundred thousand dollars is involved, your likely not talking about real reputable experts and instead are getting someone who was paid for a predetermined opinion.


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## espola (Jun 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> There are two types of expert witnesses. There are those that are experts at being expert witnesses, and those that are experts in their field that give expert testimony.  The former don't typically last very long.  Legitimate experts understand that it takes many years to develop your reputation and credibility and one case to destroy it,
> 
> Your trial is an example of one and not a very good one at that.  In a case where only several hundred thousand dollars is involved, your likely not talking about real reputable experts and instead are getting someone who was paid for a predetermined opinion.


That was more or less what the lawyer at our table said:  "It's their business".


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## watfly (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Most judges are not qualified to understand the expert testimony.  Neither are the appellate court judges or the supreme court justices.
> 
> The point is not that there should be no legal review.
> The point is that the legal review should be competent.   We need minimum scientific training for judges who rule on scientific matters.


I don't think you understand fundamentally how our court system works.   Judges typically rule on matters of law.  Decisions on the credibility and preponderance of evidence (which is when expert witnesses are typically used) are usually made by juries.


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Most judges are not qualified to understand the expert testimony.  Neither are the appellate court judges or the supreme court justices.
> 
> The point is not that there should be no legal review.
> The point is that the legal review should be competent.   We need minimum scientific training for judges who rule on scientific matters.


They aren’t ruling on the science. That’s stuff like patent law for which there is a separate bar. This is the implication of rights: what the constitution says.  The judges determine the legal principles at stake...if congress doesn’t like it or doesn’t think the science supports a particular ruling they are free to adjust the applicable law or constitutional provision. Judges aren’t supposed to inject their own knowledge into their rulings about things other than the law.


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## dad4 (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They aren’t ruling on the science. That’s stuff like patent law for which there is a separate bar. This is the implication of rights: what the constitution says.  The judges determine the legal principles at stake...if congress doesn’t like it or doesn’t think the science supports a particular ruling they are free to adjust the applicable law or constitutional provision. Judges aren’t supposed to inject their own knowledge into their rulings about things other than the law.


When the court rules whether a specific measure is the “least restrictive” means, they are ruling on which measures do, and do not, achieve the stated goal.  That is epidemiology, not law.  

When the court put forward a standard of percent occupancy, they asserted that fire code occupancy has some meaningful relation to pandemic risk.  And they further asserted that the relationship is so solid it can be used to compare a church to a retail establishment and establish standards for both.

That is not a ruling on rights.  That is ruling on the science, and getting it really badly wrong.

A rights ruling would just be to send it back to the public health agency and ask them to rewrite the rule in content neutral terms.  (number of people, duration of stay, number of square feet, and so on.)


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> When the court rules whether a specific measure is the “least restrictive” means, they are ruling on which measures do, and do not, achieve the stated goal.  That is epidemiology, not law.
> 
> When the court put forward a standard of percent occupancy, they asserted that fire code occupancy has some meaningful relation to pandemic risk.  And they further asserted that the relationship is so solid it can be used to compare a church to a retail establishment and establish standards for both.
> 
> ...


You are misunderstanding the ruling. It’s not their job to say what is most effective against the pandemic. It’s their job to ensure the ruling is content neutral and not discriminatory against religion. That’s not for the health agency to decide. The occupancy limits are only one potential standard. The government is free to advance another....the courts don’t usually go around making their own standards (the brings out the worst complaints from the left or right) but they take those advanced by the parties and experts in the pleadings in front of them. The government was free to put forward an argument that a different standard would pass constitutional muster...it chose not to. What’s worse it created the initial condition by declaring religion nonessential and then bet everything on that rather than adjust. Courts can generally only react to what’s been brought in front of them.  Don’t like the ruling?  It’s partially due to the hubris of the health experts and d politicians that they weren’t willing to back down from a position they should have known was insupportable


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## Grace T. (Jun 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are misunderstanding the ruling. It’s not their job to say what is most effective against the pandemic. It’s their job to ensure the ruling is content neutral and not discriminatory against religion. That’s not for the health agency to decide. The occupancy limits are only one potential standard. The government is free to advance another....the courts don’t usually go around making their own standards (the brings out the worst complaints from the left or right) but they take those advanced by the parties and experts in the pleadings in front of them. The government was free to put forward an argument that a different standard would pass constitutional muster...it chose not to. What’s worse it created the initial condition by declaring religion nonessential and then bet everything on that rather than adjust. Courts can generally only react to what’s been brought in front of them.  Don’t like the ruling?  It’s partially due to the hubris of the health experts and d politicians that they weren’t willing to back down from a position they should have known was insupportable


Ps your complaint is basically “if only we had health experts like fauci making rulings on laws impacting health policy we’d get rulings we like better”


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 3, 2021)

Ok here we go with masks again.

Remember the CDC has studies for decades showing they don't work in stopping the spread of influenza.

Over the past year a number of experts have made the point that the virus is very small and that the mask filtration is too large to prevent the virus from going through the mask.

What did Fauci say on the matter?

"Other emails show that in February 2020, Fauci was advising a colleague not to wear face masks, which he said were* "not really effective in keeping out virus, which is small enough to pass through the material."*

At some point maybe people will wake up to the fact that the usage of masks was political and not based on science. Why masks? Because the gov wanted to appear to have a solution. Many people also wanted the gov to do something. So you end up with having masks being required in many places despite the guys in charge knowing that the virus is so small that is passes through masks.









						'Too Long for Me to Read': Fauci Dismissed Expert's Email About Chinese Disinformation on COVID-19
					

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the federal bureaucrat who helped bungle the Trump administration's COVID-19 response, appeared to dismiss an expert's detailed warning about Chinese disinformation in the early days of the pandemic, according to emails obtained by the Washington Post.




					freebeacon.com


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## crush (Jun 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Ok here we go with masks again.
> 
> Remember the CDC has studies for decades showing they don't work in stopping the spread of influenza.
> 
> ...


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are misunderstanding the ruling. It’s not their job to say what is most effective against the pandemic. It’s their job to ensure the ruling is content neutral and not discriminatory against religion. That’s not for the health agency to decide. The occupancy limits are only one potential standard. The government is free to advance another....the courts don’t usually go around making their own standards (the brings out the worst complaints from the left or right) but they take those advanced by the parties and experts in the pleadings in front of them. The government was free to put forward an argument that a different standard would pass constitutional muster...it chose not to. What’s worse it created the initial condition by declaring religion nonessential and then bet everything on that rather than adjust. Courts can generally only react to what’s been brought in front of them.  Don’t like the ruling?  It’s partially due to the hubris of the health experts and d politicians that they weren’t willing to back down from a position they should have known was insupportable


The effect of the ruling was to gut reasonable health precautions.  Churches were in exactly the same group as similar secular activities, like theaters.  The only way the court got its ruling was to assert that churches are similar in risk to retail.  This goes completely against the science, and you don’t even pretend to defend it.

If you think the court was right to equate risk from retail to risk from theater seating, make your case.  But there is none to be made.


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## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 10892


Take you violence-promoting Q-Anon garbage elsewhere.  We don’t need another Jan 06.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> You really have to err on the side of freedom, not fear.


We are seeing this now with all the "science" people from 2020 not following the science for those vaccinated in 2021. Many used science to justify their fears. Now all they have are their fears.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Take you violence-promoting Q-Anon garbage elsewhere.  We don’t need another Jan 06.


True. We already have a biased, crusading "free" press, and leaders who believe leadership is lying to us for our own good to promote that purpose.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> We are seeing this now with all the "science" people from 2020 not following the science for those vaccinated in 2021. Many used science to justify their fears. Now all they have are their fears.


Yep. We are starting to see info coming out that is completely at odds of what we were told. 

- The virus is naturally occurring. People who think it is man made or conspiracy hacks. Today? You know what? It seems very plausible it is man made. 
- Masks work. Those that say the virus is so small that masks cannot filter them out are CRAZY. And forget our decades of research showing they dont work vs the flu. Today? We read Fauci emailing a colleague telling the person masks are not effective because VIRUSES are much smaller than the filtration provided by your typical mask.
- more and more studies are showing that lockdowns didn't make a difference. Oh well to millions of kids missing school, or all the biz shuttered or people out of work. 

When science gets politicized it isn't science any more.


----------



## crush (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Take you violence-promoting Q-Anon garbage elsewhere.  We don’t need another Jan 06.


You know what DadEspolaEOTL4, you lost big time from all the fraud on your team and big cheaters and when caught with hand in cookie jar and with a mess all over their face, you all still lie.  My God, just confess, ask for forgiveness and then do likewise to others.   Check this scripture out dude. Words from Christ,
*"You belong to your father, the devil, and you want to carry out your father’s desires. He was a murderer from the beginning, not holding to the truth, for there is no truth in him. When he lies, he speaks his **native language**, for he is a liar and the father of lies."*

It's amazing to me to see educated people like yourself with multiple degrees taking experimental drugs all of sudden and shooting up Dr. F's and Billy Boy's secret sauce DNA modified BS in their arm.  Add Jeff to the mix and you got a deadly cocktail brother.  Add the chemical compound of HB+JB x CCP and you got WMD bro.  Seriously, do you see wtfigorn?  When I was a young lad, I was the one who would like to "experiment" with plant medicine and try stuff out and get others like you Dad to do it with me.  Most of the "smart" kids said no.  Those same "smart" ones are now pushing experimental drugs on us that actually have killed thousands and wounded hundreds of thousands.  That's just today info that is super hard to find on our local and honest news we get here in da states.  Dad is pushing experimental drugs on all of us so he can feel safer?  WTFITRA?Today, dads like Dad are telling me to shoot experimental drugs in my veins.


----------



## crush (Jun 3, 2021)

China is getting hit hard.  I have a friend who knows a pal of his WHO chases tornados for a living.  He said these types seems different and he's a little baffled by all the flooding in China as well.  Dams are breaking as I speak.  Money is the root of all evil!!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Ok here we go with masks again.
> 
> Remember the CDC has studies for decades showing they don't work in stopping the spread of influenza.
> 
> ...





dad4 said:


> The effect of the ruling was to gut reasonable health precautions.  Churches were in exactly the same group as similar secular activities, like theaters.  The only way the court got its ruling was to assert that churches are similar in risk to retail.  This goes completely against the science, and you don’t even pretend to defend it.
> 
> If you think the court was right to equate risk from retail to risk from theater seating, make your case.  But there is none to be made.


no it didn’t. The main core of the Supreme Court rulings has been the govt declared certain businesses essential and religion not. It can’t do that.  The govt was free to advance another distinguishing principle (such as level of risk) but it didn’t because they knew that meant shutting down Costco on Saturday afternoon, or even worse, the meat packing plants and factories.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> no it didn’t. The main core of the Supreme Court rulings has been the govt declared certain businesses essential and religion not. It can’t do that.  The govt was free to advance another distinguishing principle (such as level of risk) but it didn’t because they knew that meant shutting down Costco on Saturday afternoon, or even worse, the meat packing plants and factories.


It


Grace T. said:


> no it didn’t. The main core of the Supreme Court rulings has been the govt declared certain businesses essential and religion not. It can’t do that.  The govt was free to advance another distinguishing principle (such as level of risk) but it didn’t because they knew that meant shutting down Costco on Saturday afternoon, or even worse, the meat packing plants and factories.


Btw we now know because of the incidents in and studies of hotel quaratines that hotels, apartments and condos with indoor hallways are super risky...maybe even more than churches, indoor dining and factories.


----------



## crush (Jun 3, 2021)

@dad4 Young brave men would lie about their age so they could fight for their country.  Now cartoons and little meme's hurt little dads feelings like you.  You will go down as the biggest dad loser ever unless you confess to all of us how wrong you and your three headed monster head have been.  I will be the first to give you a virtual hug.  If you don't confess, well then, you will live with that decision all the way to death bed.  Camp Justice is open 24/7 and never closes.


----------



## watfly (Jun 3, 2021)

I will say this, if given the choice I'd rather have a Judge render an opinion on "science" than a politician.

In other (predictably) bad news:









						More San Diego Unified students missed classes, received poor grades during COVID
					

New data show chronic absenteeism, poor grades increased during school closures; district reveals broad plan to address issues




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

worse and worse....









						The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins
					

Throughout 2020, the notion that the novel coronavirus leaked from a lab was off-limits. Those who dared to push for transparency say toxic politics and hidden agendas kept us in the dark.




					www.vanityfair.com


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> no it didn’t. The main core of the Supreme Court rulings has been the govt declared certain businesses essential and religion not. It can’t do that.  The govt was free to advance another distinguishing principle (such as level of risk) but it didn’t because they knew that meant shutting down Costco on Saturday afternoon, or even worse, the meat packing plants and factories.


Any defense of the court’s linkage to fire codes?  

I find it very hard to see that as reasonable.  They are putting forth a scientifically invalid standard which just coincidentally has the effect of greatly increasing the allowable occupancy for the churches which backed Justice Barrett’s confirmation.

So, why did they name fire codes instead of square footage or ventilation?  

Simple.  Listening to a couple of expert witnesses does not make you a scientist any more than watching Judge Judy makes me a lawyer.  The court had no clue what they were proposing.  They only knew that it achieved the pro-religion result that Barrett wanted.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Any defense of the court’s linkage to fire codes?
> 
> I find it very hard to see that as reasonable.  They are putting forth a scientifically invalid standard which just coincidentally has the effect of greatly increasing the allowable occupancy for the churches which backed Justice Barrett’s confirmation.
> 
> ...


They can't go any father than the evidence in front of them.  They can't go off willy nilly and go off the record and do their own research.  Thats not allowed under the rules of evidence.  If the government had wanted a square footage or ventilation standard it could have advanced one.  I can guess one of the reasons they didn't: both factories and schools would still be shut.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> I will say this, if given the choice I'd rather have a Judge render an opinion on "science" than a politician.
> 
> In other (predictably) bad news:
> 
> ...


Politicians did render opinions on the science.  One told us it would be over by Easter, and suggested we investigate the merits of injecting disinfectant.

Which proves your point, I suppose.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They can't go any father than the evidence in front of them.  They can't go off willy nilly and go off the record and do their own research.  Thats not allowed under the rules of evidence.  If the government had wanted a square footage or ventilation standard it could have advanced one.  I can guess one of the reasons they didn't: both factories and schools would still be shut.


Oh and BTW, once you take into account the entry hall, various levels, pastor's office, nursery, reception hall, chapel, corridors, and steeple, my church is probably open (as well as my old Catholic church) with a restricted no. per worship if square footage is the test.  It's certainly larger than a costco when that's taken into account.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> worse and worse....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What a f'ing shit show. Good luck getting anyone to listen during the next pandemic.


----------



## watfly (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Politicians did render opinions on the science.  One told us it would be over by Easter, and suggested we investigate the merits of injecting disinfectant.
> 
> Which proves your point, I suppose.


None of this is partisan for me, not sure why your making it such.  I will say that some politicians have a better track record than others, but generally I'd prefer reasonable parties from all different expertise to determine public health policy, and certainly not just epidemiologists.

I'm just razzing you, but maybe you'd be more comfortable here:






What's crazy is this parody was prophetic in many ways, particularly when it comes to police.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh and BTW, once you take into account the entry hall, various levels, pastor's office, nursery, reception hall, chapel, corridors, and steeple, my church is probably open (as well as my old Catholic church) with a restricted no. per worship if square footage is the test.  It's certainly larger than a costco when that's taken into account.


There's not test you can construct here that gives you the result you want (churches closed; schools, factories, meat packing plants open) beyond the unconstitutional essential test.  As I said, at the time I think if they had limited essential to medical (hospitals, doctors, medical equipment, pharmacies), food (markets, plants), police, fire, power and water, maybe even wifi, it would have passed the test at the time.  Then probably again if they opened up all outdoor activities (including worship and outdoor school) but kept the indoor ones restricted.  But the moment they allowed the dispenseries, liquor stores, breweries, and take out to remain open, that was game over.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> What a f'ing shit show. Good luck getting anyone to listen during the next pandemic.


As if the Q's needed more ammunition.

---

A small group within the State Department’s Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance bureau had been studying the Institute for months. The group had recently acquired classified intelligence suggesting that three WIV researchers conducting gain-of-function experiments on coronavirus samples had fallen ill in the autumn of 2019, before the COVID-19 outbreak was known to have started.

As officials at the meeting discussed what they could share with the public, they were advised by Christopher Park, the director of the State Department’s Biological Policy Staff in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, not to say anything that would point to the U.S. government’s own role in gain-of-function research, according to documentation of the meeting obtained by _Vanity Fair._

Some of the attendees were “absolutely floored,” said an official familiar with the proceedings. That someone in the U.S. government could “make an argument that is so nakedly against transparency, in light of the unfolding catastrophe, was…shocking and disturbing.”

Park, who in 2017 had been involved in lifting a U.S. government moratorium on funding for gain-of-function research, was not the only official to warn the State Department investigators against digging in sensitive places. As the group probed the lab-leak scenario, among other possibilities, its members were repeatedly advised not to open a “Pandora’s box,” said four former State Department officials interviewed by _Vanity Fair._ The admonitions “smelled like a cover-up,” said Thomas DiNanno, “and I wasn’t going to be part of it.”


----------



## crush (Jun 3, 2021)

*To all the cheaters.................................................................................One Big "F" you!!!!  *


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> As if the Q's needed more ammunition.
> 
> ---
> 
> ...


Is it any surprise that gov always takes the route of putting out info that puts it in a good lights and/or suppresses bad news about what it is doing? 

There is a long history of this. And this is why I always am skeptical of gov to be honest. Their impulse is to protect the institution. Truth be dammed. And this occurs across political parties.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> None of this is partisan for me, not sure why your making it such.  I will say that some politicians have a better track record than others, but generally I'd prefer reasonable parties from all different expertise to determine public health policy, and certainly not just epidemiologists.
> 
> I'm just razzing you, but maybe you'd be more comfortable here:
> 
> ...


 Completely agree that there are bad examples on both sides.  Cuomo and Levine come to mind.

The list of Republicans who have behaved honorably on this is disturbingly short, and they tend to be on the centrist fringe of the party.  

If you think about it, it is pretty bad that I can write “centrist fringe”, and know my meaning will be clear.  Those two words should not have a combined meaning for a major institution.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

Cal osha seems set to rule masks into 2022 unless everyone in the work space (tbd) is vaccinated. 2 futures possible: offices to remain remote in California into 2022, everyone ignores it and companies have to employ mask police.


----------



## watfly (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The list of Republicans who have behaved honorably on this is disturbingly short, and they tend to be on the centrist fringe of the party.


Your definition of honorably is Covid myopic and going hard on lockdown.  My definition of honorable is balancing health, education and business...aka balancing the needs of *all* your citizens.  Under my definition DeSantis far and away surpassed any other Governor if you look at the overall results.  Significantly lower unemployment, open schools, protected the elderly all while experiencing a comparable rate of death.  You compare Florida to the results of California and its no contest, DeSantis destroyed Newsom.  Even more impressive when you consider the that fact that Florida relies on tourism (2nd only to Nevada) and that NY'rs fled to Florida.

We could both make arguments using our own yardsticks to fit a partisan narrative.   But like I said before this isn't a partisan issue for me, its a common sense issue.  Its's extremely disturbing that our Governor made having kids in school a political/power issue (and if you don't believe that, your entitled to your opinion, but you're an idiot).  Its unforgivable that our children were used as pawns in the Covid battle.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Cal osha seems set to rule masks into 2022 unless everyone in the work space (tbd) is vaccinated. 2 futures possible: offices to remain remote in California into 2022, everyone ignores it and companies have to employ mask police.


Voluntary reporting of vaccine status has already begun.  And masked opening of offices has begun as well.

No mask police, though.  It’s all social.  Showing up without a mask just would not be viewed as acceptable by your coworkers.


----------



## watfly (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> worse and worse....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Some random thoughts.  Does this article even come out if Biden doesn't reopen the investigation?  They obviously had worked on this article for months.  Why didn't it come out earlier instead of just a few days after Biden's comments?

Absent the biased editorial side comments (which are unfounded and irrelevant) this article would qualify for real journalism.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Voluntary reporting of vaccine status has already begun.  And masked opening of offices has begun as well.
> 
> No mask police, though.  It’s all social.  Showing up without a mask just would not be viewed as acceptable by your coworkers.


If it's an OSHA reg, then no, it's not just social.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Showing up without a mask just would not be viewed as acceptable by your coworkers.


Actually in many parts of the country showing up wearing a mask is considered pointless. Especially since most are vaccinated. 

After a year and a half of playing safety theater it is time to move on. 

There is no damn reason to mandates masks.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> Some random thoughts.  Does this article even come out if Biden doesn't reopen the investigation?  They obviously had worked on this article for months.  Why didn't it come out earlier instead of just a few days after Biden's comments?
> 
> Absent the biased editorial side comments (which are unfounded and irrelevant) this article would qualify for real journalism.


Because politically they didn't want to. 

Up until just a month ago talking about lab leak theories were "officially debunked". That meant of course the press were simply not interested. 

Now that it has become OK, now you are seeing a lot of various press articles about this. 

It really is an indictment on the press. They are far from str8 shooters on this and most issues. 

We as a country are worse off as a result of our highly partisan press.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Voluntary reporting of vaccine status has already begun.  And masked opening of offices has begun as well.
> 
> No mask police, though.  It’s all social.  Showing up without a mask just would not be viewed as acceptable by your coworkers.


I'm vaccinated. If they want me in the office, it will be without a mask - and I will be happy to do so because I believe in science.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If it's an OSHA reg, then no, it's not just social.


And watch the idiot school districts/unions take that OSHA reg and run with it to make more bad rules for kids.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'm vaccinated. If they want me in the office, it will be without a mask - and I will be happy to do so because I believe in science.


Yes. Time to stand up and say no to idiocy and safety theater. 

Remember also Fauci emailed people stating the obvious....masks are not designed to deal with the extremely small virus particle size. Ineffective was the word he used.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> Some random thoughts.  Does this article even come out if Biden doesn't reopen the investigation?  They obviously had worked on this article for months.  Why didn't it come out earlier instead of just a few days after Biden's comments?
> 
> Absent the biased editorial side comments (which are unfounded and irrelevant) this article would qualify for real journalism.


"found that conflicts of interest, stemming in part from large government grants supporting controversial virology research, hampered the U.S. investigation into COVID-19's origin at every step. In one State Department meeting, officials seeking to demand transparency from the Chinese government *say they were explicitly told by colleagues not to explore the Wuhan Institute of Virology's gain-of-function research,* _because it would bring unwelcome attention to U.S. government funding of it."_

I suspect the various news orgs were also told to lay off looking around. Most showed an extreme lack of curiosity as to the origins of a virus that shut the world down. Coincidence between what the State Department said and the lack of real investigative journalism? I doubt it.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yes. Time to stand up and say no to idiocy and safety theater.
> 
> Remember also Fauci emailed people stating the obvious....masks are not designed to deal with the extremely small virus particle size. Ineffective was the word he used.


I've got no problem with others wearing a mask at work. I just don't need to participate in the neuroses of others as I have enough of my own. If it's serious enough that we need to use a very imperfect method to reduce transmission, we should just stay at home.


----------



## watfly (Jun 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I've got no problem with others wearing a mask at work. I just don't need to participate in the neuroses of others as I have enough of my own. If it's serious enough that we need to use a very imperfect method to reduce transmission, we should just stay at home.


At our home office none of us wear masks and haven't since the beginning (we are spread quite a distance apart).  We do require our individual site employees to do so out of an abundance of caution since they are exposed to the public and to make customers that may be fearful more comfortable (aka safety theater).

Personally  I see this odd psychology with masks that I'm guilty of.  If I enter a public establishment I will enter with a mask on as that is typically required and out of courtesy to others (as Dad4 recommends).  However, if I enter a place these days and the employees aren't wearing masks I will immediately take it off.  In my mind, keeping on a mask when others aren't wearing them is anti-social behavior and sends the message that I don't trust them.  I guess I'm just a victim of social norms.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> At our home office none of us wear masks and haven't since the beginning (we are spread quite a distance apart).  We do require our individual site employees to do so out of an abundance of caution since they are exposed to the public and to make customers that may be fearful more comfortable (aka safety theater).
> 
> Personally  I see this odd psychology with masks that I'm guilty of.  If I enter a public establishment I will enter with a mask on as that is typically required and out of courtesy to others (as Dad4 recommends).  However, if I enter a place these days and the employees aren't wearing masks I will immediately take it off.  In my mind, keeping on a mask when others aren't wearing them is anti-social behavior and sends the message that I don't trust them.  I guess I'm just a victim of social norms.


Yes, if a store requires it, I put one on. If it's optional, I don't. I was in San Clemente this weekend. Most places required a mask, but in the one surf shop, it was optional.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> Some random thoughts.  Does this article even come out if Biden doesn't reopen the investigation?  They obviously had worked on this article for months.  Why didn't it come out earlier instead of just a few days after Biden's comments?
> 
> Absent the biased editorial side comments (which are unfounded and irrelevant) this article would qualify for real journalism.


Lab leak articles in general may have been held up because of fears of appearing to support a conspiracy theory.  Once Biden asked for the study, that objection went away.

It’s hard for the left to say “Trump was right about X.”.   Even if he was.


----------



## watfly (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Lab leak articles in general may have been held up because of fears of appearing to support a conspiracy theory.  Once Biden asked for the study, that objection went away.
> 
> It’s hard for the left to say “Trump was right about X.”.   Even if he was.


No doubt.

The "say or do opposite of Trump" is not great policy, although its been the modus operandi for Biden his first 100 days. I'm glad he is investigating the lab leak theory now.

The media and those protecting their own self interests are the ones that mischaracterized it as a conspiracy.  I don't know if its a true or not, but its a very plausible theory given the circumstances.  Could it be coincidence, yes, but we also don't have any compelling evidence that it occurred naturally.  It's at least worth an investigation. 

I will give Fauci the benefit of the that he didn't know what was going on at the Wuhan lab, but, given his resources and affiliation he had every obligation to investigate it at the time and not rely on the representations of a not impartial industry colleague.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> No doubt.
> 
> The "say or do opposite of Trump" is not great policy, although its been the modus operandi for Biden his first 100 days. I'm glad he is investigating the lab leak theory now.
> 
> ...


I definitely think given the evidence it’s a likely possibility. What bothers me about the theory, though, is the time frame. A fall lab leak is not enough time for the virus to achieve the number of mutations circulating in January. Satellite and phone data shows something was going on in China in early fall 2020. And the antibody and fecal tracking out of Italy, Paris, Spain, Boston, Seattle and Singapore doesnt rec with the time frame. The antibody tests would have to be wrong and on a massive level. I think the other probable candidate is the bat cave dung collections highlighted in the variety article.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Lab leak articles in general may have been held up because of fears of appearing to support a conspiracy theory.


The press during the 4 yrs of T basically took the opposite position of everything. It was reflexive and supported their political position. 

That however does not make for actually informing the public of what the truth is. 

Biden actually canned the investigation into the leak theory. It was only in the past month when the trend went the other way that he said OK lets investigate. 

I am still skeptical we get the full truth. It would be one thing if the US had never financed any aspect of that labs research. However we know they have. Now maybe that financing wasn't directly related to covid, but these are links governments like to hide.


----------



## watfly (Jun 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The press during the 4 yrs of T basically took the opposite position of everything. It was reflexive and supported their political position.
> 
> That however does not make for actually informing the public of what the truth is.
> 
> ...


According to Vanity Fair, not investigating lab leak is Trump's fault:

_"Trump’s premature statement poisoned the waters for anyone seeking an honest answer to the question of where COVID-19 came from."_

Talk about a complete lack of self-awareness and honesty.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

When you look at CA/FL, remember to look at socal and norcal separately.

Most of the deaths in CA were in LA, OC, Riv, and San Bernadino.  For those four counties, you have 38,800 deaths out of 18 million residents.  2150 deaths per million.   That is worse than Florida, and close to South Dakota.

For the entire rest of the state, you have 24,500 deaths out of a population of 22 million.  1,100 deaths per million.  Considerably better than Florida, and similar to Colorado.

The question then becomes not “why did CA policies fail?”, but “what went wrong in socal?”.


----------



## crush (Jun 3, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> When you look at CA/FL, remember to look at socal and norcal separately.
> 
> Most of the deaths in CA were in LA, OC, Riv, and San Bernadino.  For those four counties, you have 38,800 deaths out of 18 million residents.  2150 deaths per million.   That is worse than Florida, and close to South Dakota.
> 
> ...


Los Angeles Co was one of the most restrictive in the state, with indoor dining and bars closed the entire time and schools and churches fully remote.

Given what we now know out of Singapore, Australia and Taiwan, not only multigenerational families, but also just apartment living in general are probably a large part of those drivers.

You also have to throw out NorCal when comparing Fl/TX because of the different latitudes.  A more fair comparison with NorCal is Salt Lake and Denver.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 3, 2021)

watfly said:


> According to Vanity Fair, not investigating lab leak is Trump's fault:
> 
> _"Trump’s premature statement poisoned the waters for anyone seeking an honest answer to the question of where COVID-19 came from."_
> 
> Talk about a complete lack of self-awareness and honesty.


That's what happens to crusaders. The crusade (get Trump out of office) becomes the end-all. Objectivity is left in its wake.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Los Angeles Co was one of the most restrictive in the state, with indoor dining and bars closed the entire time and schools and churches fully remote.
> 
> Given what we now know out of Singapore, Australia and Taiwan, not only multigenerational families, but also just apartment living in general are probably a large part of those drivers.
> 
> You also have to throw out NorCal when comparing Fl/TX because of the different latitudes.  A more fair comparison with NorCal is Salt Lake and Denver.


SJ had the same rules as LA.  Remote schools, remote church, closed indoor dining.  We also have a large apartment population.  But we have fewer than half your deaths per capita.  Same for Oakland.

Back to asking what went wrong in socal.  It wasn't simply lockdowns + apartments, because then Oakland and San Jose would look just as bad.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> SJ had the same rules as LA.  Remote schools, remote church, closed indoor dining.  We also have a large apartment population.  But we have fewer than half your deaths per capita.  Same for Oakland.
> 
> Back to asking what went wrong in socal.  It wasn't simply lockdowns + apartments, because then Oakland and San Jose would look just as bad.


The only 2 other obvious factors are latitude and percentage of workers forced to work in person.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The only 2 other obvious factors are latitude and percentage of workers forced to work in person.


Those don't hold up, either.  

Latitude helps you, not us.  We had less warmth and less sunlight last winter.  We should be the ones who spent too much time indoors.   

You're also way worse off then San Diego.  If the problem were being too far south, they'd be looking worse.

Essential workers?  Oakland has mostly essential workers, too.  Why does LA have almost three times the death rate of Alameda County?

Two other "obvious" factors you missed:  1- socal rule compliance was weaker on a personal scale.  2- socal had a more contagious variant.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Those don't hold up, either.
> 
> Latitude helps you, not us.  We had less warmth and less sunlight last winter.  We should be the ones who spent too much time indoors.
> 
> ...


1 is absolutely false. 1/2 of Los Angeles is still wearing masks outside.

2 is unlikely given that at some point given the close ties between la and NorCal it would have spread to NorCal at some point. Even Singapore Taiwan and Thailand were unable to keep out the uk and Indian variants.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 1 is absolutely false. 1/2 of Los Angeles is still wearing masks outside.
> 
> 2 is unlikely given that at some point given the close ties between la and NorCal it would have spread to NorCal at some point. Even Singapore Taiwan and Thailand were unable to keep out the uk and Indian variants.


Variant:
The LA variant did make it to NorCal.   But that's the wrong question.  The right question is when it become the dominant variant.

LA was a few months ahead of us.  You got it just before the vaccine, and we got it just after.  It's a lot less of a problem if 30% of people are vaccinated.

Compliance:
You have the wrong measure of what it means to be masked and distant.  It mostly is not a question of what the most cautious people do.  Transmission is caused by what the least cautious 20% do.

What fraction of people were still going to casinos and having friends over for drinks?   

If that number is higher for LA than for SJ, then that would help explain the difference.


----------



## crush (Jun 4, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Variant:
> The LA variant did make it to NorCal.   But that's the wrong question.  The right question is when it become the dominant variant.
> 
> LA was a few months ahead of us.  You got it just before the vaccine, and we got it just after.  It's a lot less of a problem if 30% of people are vaccinated.
> ...


You’ve twisted yourself in circles with the variant and norcalers are more virtuous than socalers when the most obvious explanation really is lines of latitude when you compare what happened in az and Texas including the summer wave. Or: the simplest explanation is usually right.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

Israel is reporting a positive link between the mRNA vaccine and myocarditis in young men after 2nd dose. Israel holding off vaccinating 12-15 year olds as a result


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> When you look at CA/FL, remember to look at socal and norcal separately.
> 
> Most of the deaths in CA were in LA, OC, Riv, and San Bernadino.  For those four counties, you have 38,800 deaths out of 18 million residents.  2150 deaths per million.   That is worse than Florida, and close to South Dakota.
> 
> ...


You can go find areas in FL that did better vs other areas in FL. Kind of like what you are trying to pull with your example in CA. 

You are looking for excuses as to why CA is in the same place as FL. 

FL had 100s of thousands of kids IN SCHOOL. CA did not. FL let biz work. CA really did not. 

CA failed in comparison to FL. That is what it is. 

Stop making excuses. 

The results are in. 

If you have kids, work, run a biz, etc. one would have been far better off in FL vs CA.


----------



## whatithink (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Israel is reporting a positive link between the mRNA vaccine and myocarditis in young men after 2nd dose. Israel holding off vaccinating 12-15 year olds as a result











						Israel sees probable link between Pfizer vaccine and myocarditis cases
					

Israel's Health Ministry said on Tuesday it had found the small number of heart inflammation cases observed mainly in young men who received Pfizer's (PFE.N) COVID-19 vaccine in Israel were likely linked to their vaccination.




					www.reuters.com
				




Extracts -

_In Israel, 275 cases of myocarditis were reported between December 2020 and May 2021 among more than 5 million vaccinated people, the ministry said in disclosing the findings of a study it commissioned to examine the matter.

Most patients who experienced heart inflammation spent no more than four days in the hospital and 95% of the cases were classified as mild, according to the study, which the ministry said was conducted by three teams of experts._

&

_Israel had held off making its 12- to 15-year-old population eligible for the vaccines, pending the Health Ministry report. In parallel to publishing those findings, a ministry committee approved vaccinating the adolescents, a senior official said.

"The committee gave the green light for vaccinating 12- to 15-year-olds, and this will be possible as of next week," Nachman Ash, Israel's pandemic-response coordinator, told Radio 103 FM. "The efficacy of the vaccine outweighs the risk."_


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> That's what happens to crusaders. The crusade (get Trump out of office) becomes the end-all. Objectivity is left in its wake.


This is exactly what happened. 

By the way recent Fauci emails reveal he thought that without a vaccine covid would go away. 

Who was advising the Prez?

What have we heard as a major complaint of Trump? That he said the virus would go away. 

If our press wasn't looking to score point, etc we would get so much better info.


----------



## crush (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Israel is reporting a positive link between the mRNA vaccine and myocarditis in young men after 2nd dose. *Israel holding off* vaccinating 12-15 year olds as a result


Holding off?  How about let the public know the real truth.  This is more & more looking like a real WMD Grace.   I told my friend last night and he told me to stop talking about all this conspiracy shit.  Same guy WHO for the last 3 months has been telling me how selfish I am for not taking the double shot of poison.  WTFUP!!!! Talk about something that seemed so right can be so wrong  This is MOO, so take what I say with a grain of salt and a bottle Jack.  I think the true meaning of life is learning to overcome your fears.  I think we will ALL be pushed to the limit in one form of fear or another.  Ain't nobody escaping fear + pain + suffering= Help God?  Good vs Evil and the choice is an individual one.


----------



## crush (Jun 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> *This is exactly what happened.*
> 
> By the way recent Fauci emails reveal he thought that without a vaccine covid would go away.
> 
> ...


Go deeper Hound.  Get down that rabbit hole with Alice brother.  It's super dark at first and you will see some of the most disturbing ass shit that no one is willing to talking about above the earth.  I tried to take every male friend I know down with me and they run away every time we get close.  To come to think about it, only woman go down the rabbit hole with me.  The guys I know have been telling me to STFU with all the abuse stuff towards the kids and it's not true and I just need to go back to life.  We need the men to rise up and lead with the woman who have been sounding the alarm bells for a long time.  Dudes have been too busy working and trying to survive and I get all that.  However, the kids need our help Hound, they really really do.


----------



## espola (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Israel is reporting a positive link between the mRNA vaccine and myocarditis in young men after 2nd dose. Israel holding off vaccinating 12-15 year olds as a result


In the face of growing concerns about myocarditis, last week the CDC posted a statement saying it “continues to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for everyone 12 years of age and older. The known and potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the known and potential risks, including the possible risk of myocarditis or pericarditis.” 



			https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/06/israel-detects-link-between-myocarditis-and-covid-vaccine.html
		


Also:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/myocarditis.html


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> When you look at CA/FL, remember to look at socal and norcal separately.
> 
> Most of the deaths in CA were in LA, OC, Riv, and San Bernadino.  For those four counties, you have 38,800 deaths out of 18 million residents.  2150 deaths per million.   That is worse than Florida, and close to South Dakota.
> 
> ...


Just curious, when you grade a students math test do you just grade them on the parts they did well on?


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> If you have kids, work, run a biz, etc. one would have been far better off in FL vs CA.


"Yeah but" if you are a school teacher, California is AWESOME!


----------



## crush (Jun 4, 2021)

espola said:


> In the face of growing concerns about myocarditis, last week the CDC posted a statement saying it “continues to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for everyone 12 years of age and older. The known and potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the known and potential risks, including the possible risk of myocarditis or pericarditis.”
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Espola, I will now be calling you Ebola.  Wow dude, after all this you still act like this?  To all the folks reading along, me and Ebola Boy go way back. I'm the only one he censors and ignores.  Think about how wrong his triple head avatar has been?  I sure hope he HHWTFU and GHSTFGS and his sakes. My son and daughter have a better chance of getting struck by a bus today and being struck by Lightning tomorrow before they would die from the Rona.  Seriously, your starting to cross death lines to me and that is not good.  Listen to this Dr bro and tell me what lie he is saying.  WTFUUPOD!!!!

https://www.bitchute.com/video/TPrL6Qev8Vd0/


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

espola said:


> last week the CDC posted a statement saying it “continues to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for everyone 12 years of age and older.


Why vaccinate the kids? 

I am in no hurry to get my kids vaccinated. 

Lets look at the numbers to date. 

Roughly 600k deaths in the US. 

Age 0-17 have 309 deaths so far. 
Age 18-29 have 2294 deaths so far. 

They have no risk.

*The above group accounts for just 0.43% of all deaths.* 

 And what did we do? Shut down schools, sports and universities. Look at that number above and make an argument that the gov did the right thing shutting schools down. They have no risk. And the people who have advocated shutting schools down clearly don't look at data or understand risk. 

Lets go to age 49. 

Everyone under 49 constituted *4.4% of all deaths.* 

We shut schools, biz, run around wearing useless masks, etc for these numbers?

Enough of the dog and pony safety theater show. 

I am curious to see what stupid rules schools have in place for this coming year. So thankful my kids are not stuck in a public school and have to deal with the idiocy. Being in a charter/private school they had school wise a pretty normal rule. The kids across the street in a public school even just a few days ago were doing a drive through graduation because it was deemed unsafe to do it in person.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> "Yeah but" if you are a school teacher, California is AWESOME!


Yep.

You get to work at home in your basement wearing a mask and get full pay.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> Just curious, when you grade a students math test do you just grade them on the parts they did well on?


I think a better analogy is you have two students.  One mostly did the homework and got the easy test.  The other did a half-assed job on the homework and got the hard test. 

I’m not saying the policies were perfect.  Closing outdoor spaces wasn’t just unnecessary, it probably cost lives.  But something went seriously wrong in LA, and it wasn’t just Newsom.  Somehow, you guys had over twice as many deaths per capita as other urbanized areas of California.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> But something went seriously wrong in LA, and it wasn’t just Newsom. Somehow, you guys had over twice as many deaths per capita as other urbanized areas of California.


Nothing went wrong outside of closing everything down. 

LA shut down. Schools closes, restaurants closed, biz closed. What else exactly were they supposed to do?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

"If the 20th century should have taught us anything, it is to never trust doctors in or adjacent to politics."


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Somehow, you guys had over twice as many deaths per capita as other urbanized areas of California.


Hey don't lump SD in with LA, we're the anti-LA.    (Ironically, LA went yellow before SD, in fact, SD is still orange)

Garcetti may be the variable you're looking for.


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep.
> 
> You get to work at home in your basement wearing a mask and get full pay.


It's interesting.  Elementary teachers and middle school teachers seemed to be very committed for the most part.  High school teachers were generally a disaster, some at best just mailed it in.  One of my daughter's teachers told his students not to contact him unless it was an emergency.  Some just assigned homework and rarely graded it.  A few still refuse to show up in person.  I place the blame firmly on the principals for not holding the teachers accountable (although the unions had a role in that as well).

Fortunately, there are some very good online resources and my high school daughter was able to educate herself.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> Hey don't lump SD in with LA, we're the anti-LA.    (Ironically, LA went yellow before SD, in fact, SD is still orange)
> 
> Garcetti may be the variable you're looking for.


SD did ok.  Worse than most of CA, but nowhere near as badly as LA.

What did Garcetti do differently?  San Jose, Oakland, and SF were all doing the same thing.  None of them had 2400 deaths per million.

The problem was not politicians.  Most of socal was more relaxed about rules.  San Diego got the easy test (wild type covid)  LA got the hard test (LA variant).  So San Diego got a C and LA got an F.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You’ve twisted yourself in circles with the variant and norcalers are more virtuous than socalers when the most obvious explanation really is lines of latitude when you compare what happened in az and Texas including the summer wave. Or: the simplest explanation is usually right.


How dare you underestimate the virtue of the Norcal - the epicenter of smug.


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> SD did ok.  Worse than most of CA, but nowhere near as badly as LA.
> 
> What did Garcetti do differently?  San Jose, Oakland, and SF were all doing the same thing.  None of them had 2400 deaths per million.
> 
> The problem was not politicians.  Most of socal was more relaxed about rules.  San Diego got the easy test (wild type covid)  LA got the hard test (LA variant).  So San Diego got a C and LA got an F.


Again we will never agree because your only using one standard and that's Covid, I happen to believe that other health, economic, social and educational standards are relevant.  Florida crushed California hands down.


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> How dare you underestimate the virtue of the Norcal - the epicenter of smug.


Not to stereotype, but its uncanny how that seems to work.  It must be something in the water.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You’ve twisted yourself in circles with the variant and norcalers are more virtuous than socalers when the most obvious explanation really is lines of latitude when you compare what happened in az and Texas including the summer wave. Or: the simplest explanation is usually right.


Ok.  Let’s compare LA to other states at about the same latitude.

You guys did about as well as Arizona or Mississippi, but worse than Vegas, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, South Carolina or Georgia.  Two ties and nine losses.  

What went wrong in LA?  You have worse numbers than almost anyone else at your latitude.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Why vaccinate the kids?
> 
> I am in no hurry to get my kids vaccinated.
> 
> ...


I keep wondering the same thing. I have a 15-year-old. What's a bigger risk for her, the known, extremely low risk of the virus or the likely extremely low risk of the vaccine?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What went wrong in LA? You have worse numbers than almost anyone else at your latitude.


Nothing went wrong. 

It is a virus. Masks don't stop it. People have to work. 

The problem is you assume that people will all just stay home and not go out. No work, nada. The reality is rather different. LA was very compliant with the nonsensical rules. It just happens to be a large metro area in which a respiratory virus easily moves around.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> Not to stereotype, but its uncanny how that seems to work.  It must be something in the water.


They put hubris in the water up here?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> Again we will never agree because your only using one standard and that's Covid, I happen to believe that other health, economic, social and educational standards are relevant.  Florida crushed California hands down.


Your comparison only works because LA had a different disease than FL. 

If you restrict your comparison to places with the same disease, your argument goes nowhere.  The rest of CA had just over half as many deaths per capita as FL. 

So, if you want to say FL crushed greater LA, you are correct.  Just remember that FL was taking the easy test and LA got the hard test.  Not too surprising that FL got a D and LA got an F.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your comparison only works because LA had a different disease than FL.
> 
> If you restrict your comparison to places with the same disease, your argument goes nowhere.  The rest of CA had just over half as many deaths per capita as FL.
> 
> So, if you want to say FL crushed greater LA, you are correct.  Just remember that FL was taking the easy test and LA got the hard test.  Not too surprising that FL got a D and LA got an F.


Please. FL didn't get a D.

Just based on deaths per million FL is in the bottom half of the states in the US.

Their deaths per million are close to states all the way down to #35 in the US.

You are just stuck with your models and your wish casting that they work. And are now looking for excuses as to why.

FL's test was no harder vs CA. The difference is CA leadership failed the same test FL was taking. 

It is fascinating watching you change the parameters of what you think is great and works and what doesn't all in a feeble attempt to justify interventions that didn't work.

Remember...if you had a kid, in FL they got to go to school in person this past year. The poor, the middle class and the rich kids. CA? Basically nobody got in person classes. The poor? They didn't even get much online classes.

Right there CA gets an F and FL gets an A. FL gave educational opportunities to all the various socio economic groups. CA who is supposedly on the side of the little guy...screwed the less well of as it relates to education.

Then factor in all the people in CA who were put out of work or lost their biz. FL is far ahead in that category as well.

It is an easy win for FL. FL is one of the states that did the best during covid.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> They put hubris in the water up here?


If you follow the argument, it’s not really about norcal.

I just got tired of people comparing FL to CA, but ignoring the variant.  

So I decided to pose a question to which the only honest answers are “variant” and “inadequate housing.”

Which brings us back to, 

What went wrong in LA?  Why are their numbers so much worse than almost anyone else at their latitude?  

It’s not Newsom, because the rest of CA did ok. 
It’s not latitude, because you did worse than the rest of your latitude.

What did LA do that was so bad?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

Why I spoke out against lockdowns
					

Martin Kulldorff on the necessity of challenging the Covid consensus.




					www.spiked-online.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you follow the argument, it’s not really about norcal.
> 
> I just got tired of people comparing FL to CA, but ignoring the variant.
> 
> ...


It's funny.  You are down to the variant was confined to La County.

And if you accept that Newsom may have been a variable, you may as well be open to putting it on the LA Board of Supervisors for their really long lockdowns (we know lockdown fatigue is a thing) and their shutting of outdoor dining.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Cal osha seems set to rule masks into 2022 unless everyone in the work space (tbd) is vaccinated. 2 futures possible: offices to remain remote in California into 2022, everyone ignores it and companies have to employ mask police.


Seems like the virus only endangers California a now…


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> Fortunately, there are some very good online resources and my high school daughter was able to educate herself.


Yes. I mentioned this before, but as you all know I don't fear repeating myself. There is going to be a population of students who thrive when they can go at their own pace and don't miss the social aspect of school as well as families that appreciate the flexibility. If I had to guess, the COVID experience will act to skim a bit of the academic cream off the top of public schools.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And watch the idiot school districts/unions take that OSHA reg and run with it to make more bad rules for kids.


The 2 are interrelated


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> When you look at CA/FL, remember to look at socal and norcal separately.
> 
> Most of the deaths in CA were in LA, OC, Riv, and San Bernadino.  For those four counties, you have 38,800 deaths out of 18 million residents.  2150 deaths per million.   That is worse than Florida, and close to South Dakota.
> 
> ...


I’ll take relative distance to the Mexico border for 500 Alex!


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 4, 2021)

espola said:


> In the face of growing concerns about myocarditis, last week the CDC posted a statement saying it “continues to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for everyone 12 years of age and older. The known and potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the known and potential risks, including the possible risk of myocarditis or pericarditis.”
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Except for the FACT that last summer lockdowners were using myocarditis as a reason for our kids NOT to return to outdoor sports because of the risk…..again, selective use of science.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I’ll take relative distance to the Mexico border for 500 Alex!


Nope. San Diego is closer, and they have a far lower death rate.

Besides, Texas is also kicking your ass.   They’re close to Mexico, too.

Next try.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's funny.  You are down to the variant was confined to La County.
> 
> And if you accept that Newsom may have been a variable, you may as well be open to putting it on the LA Board of Supervisors for their really long lockdowns (we know lockdown fatigue is a thing) and their shutting of outdoor dining.


Why was LA the only place with lockdown fatigue?  We closed dining, too.

It may be that there was a cultural difference in when different people gave in to lockdown fatigue.  But the lockdown itself was largely the same.

Besides, that sounds dangerously close to norcal smugness.  “ Those weak souls in LA crumbled in fatigue, while we northerners endured with grace and dignity.   If only those Dodgers fans were as mentally strong as the stalwart residents of Oakland.”. 

Are you sure that’s the argument you want?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nope. San Diego is closer, and they have a far lower death rate.
> 
> Besides, Texas is also kicking your ass.   They’re close to Mexico, too.
> 
> Next try.


So I’m likely down $500…..but you're right, Texas is and has kicked CA’s ass throughout this pandemic and their kids went to school and economy is booming.


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Yes. I mentioned this before, but as you all know I don't fear repeating myself. There is going to be a population of students who thrive when they can go at their own pace and don't miss the social aspect of school as well as families that appreciate the flexibility. If I had to guess, the COVID experience will act to skim a bit of the academic cream off the top of public schools.


(If we didn't repeat ourselves, we'd have nothing to say.)  California students have been particularly disadvantaged as compared to students from other states.  One of many issues is in regards to college admissions for this year's Seniors.

Despite my whining about the impacts of the Covid restrictions, most are "first world" problems for my family.  Nothing really more than inconveniences. I'd even go so far as to say that we adapted and thrived at times during the pandemic, but we had the ability to do so.

However, the less fortunate took the brunt of both the virus and the restrictions.   The short term impacts have been devastating to some.  The long term impacts to our community as a whole are unknown, but potentially disastrous.


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nope. San Diego is closer, and they have a far lower death rate.
> 
> Besides, Texas is also kicking your ass.   They’re close to Mexico, too.
> 
> Next try.


Aren't you in Santa Clara County?  While a per capital death rate shouldn't ever be considered a good thing, SD County rate is nearly identical to Santa Clara's.  We at least did better than LA.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why was LA the only place with lockdown fatigue?  We closed dining, too.
> 
> It may be that there was a cultural difference in when different people gave in to lockdown fatigue.  But the lockdown itself was largely the same.
> 
> ...


Or it could be the virus viruses based in part on density and latitude, but otherwise operates kind of like food coloring sloshing in a wave pool....it would all be very random so you wouldn't like that at all.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

watfly said:


> Aren't you in Santa Clara County?  While a per capital death rate shouldn't ever be considered a good thing, SD County rate is nearly identical to Santa Clara's.  We at least did better than LA.


That’s just the thing.  If you grew up as a Chargers and Padres fan, then you know something about enduring hardship and were prepared for the rigors of quarantine.  Same thing for Raiders and As fans.  

Those weak-willed Lakers and Dodgers fans never stood a chance.  They crumbled under pressure and gave in to covid fatigue.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

What Our Government Has Done to Our Children This Past Year Is Unforgivable
					

Every last official who did this to our kids can go straight to hell and burn there for eternity




					redstate.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> What Our Government Has Done to Our Children This Past Year Is Unforgivable
> 
> 
> Every last official who did this to our kids can go straight to hell and burn there for eternity
> ...


"We have stolen nearly two years of the most energetic and productive time in our children’s lives for a virus that 99% of people will survive and ostensibly *100% of children who contract it will survive*. This virus has been no threat to youth (yes, I understand there are exceptions to every rule but in a country of 330 million, 100 to 200 deaths -while certainly heart wrenching- *is statistically zero*)."


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s just the thing.  If you grew up as a Chargers and Padres fan, then you know something about enduring hardship and were prepared for the rigors of quarantine.  Same thing for Raiders and As fans.
> 
> Those weak-willed Lakers and Dodgers fans never stood a chance.  They crumbled under pressure and gave in to covid fatigue.


You finally may be on to something.  They can buy championships, but they couldn't buy their way out of the pandemic.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

"For society at large, the conclusion was obvious. We had to protect older, high-risk people while younger low-risk adults kept society moving.
But that didn’t happen. Instead, schools closed while nursing homes went unprotected. Why? It made no sense. "

I have to agree. Made no sense. To this day some still think it is/was impossible to protect the vulnerable and the only solution was the one size fits all blanket policy. 

"Instead of understanding the pandemic, we were encouraged to fear it. Instead of life, we got lockdowns and death. We got delayed cancer diagnoses, worse cardiovascular-disease outcomes, deteriorating mental health, and a lot more collateral public-health damage from lockdown. Children, the elderly and the working class were the hardest hit by what can only be described as the biggest public-health fiasco in history."

"Throughout the 2020 spring wave, Sweden kept daycare and schools open for every one of its 1.8million children aged between one and 15. And it did so without subjecting them to testing, masks, physical barriers or social distancing. *This policy led to precisely zero Covid deaths in that age group, while teachers had a Covid risk similar to the average of other professions.* The Swedish Public Health Agency reported these facts in mid-June, but in the US lockdown proponents *still pushed for school closures*."

"Something was clearly amiss with the media. *Among infectious-disease epidemiology colleagues that I know, most favour focused protection of high-risk groups instead of lockdowns, *but the media made it sound like there was a scientific consensus for general lockdowns."

The above statement should hit home for @dad4 but it won't.

"I invited two scientists to join me, Sunetra Gupta from the University of Oxford, one of the world’s pre-eminent infectious-disease epidemiologists, and Jay Bhattacharya from Stanford University, an expert on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations. To the surprise of AIER, the three of us also decided to write a declaration arguing for focused protection instead of lockdowns. We called it the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD).

Opposition to lockdowns had been deemed unscientific. When scientists spoke out against lockdowns, they were ignored, considered a fringe voice, or accused of not having proper credentials. *We thought it would be hard to ignore something authored by three senior infectious-disease epidemiologists from what were three respectable universities.* We were right. All hell broke loose. That was good.

Some colleagues threw epithets at us like ‘crazy’, ‘exorcist’, ‘mass murderer’ or ‘Trumpian’. Some accused us of taking a stand for money, though nobody paid us a penny. Why such a vicious response? *The declaration was in line with the many pandemic preparedness plans produced years earlier, but that was the crux. With no good public-health arguments against focused protection, they had to resort to mischaracterisation and slander, or else admit they had made a terrible, deadly mistake in their support of lockdowns.*"


"After the Great Barrington Declaration, there was no longer a lack of media attention on focused protection as an alternative to lockdowns. On the contrary, requests came from across the globe. I noticed an interesting contrast. *In the US and UK, media outlets were either friendly with softball questions or hostile with trick questions and ad hominem attacks*. Journalists in most other countries *asked hard but relevant and fair questions, exploring and critically examining the Great Barrington Declaration. I think that is how journalism should be done*."

Read the rest. 









						Why I spoke out against lockdowns
					

Martin Kulldorff on the necessity of challenging the Covid consensus.




					www.spiked-online.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Why I spoke out against lockdowns
> 
> 
> Martin Kulldorff on the necessity of challenging the Covid consensus.
> ...


I know you posted the link. I just added some of the key parts to the forum.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Or it could be the virus viruses based in part on density and latitude, but otherwise operates kind of like food coloring sloshing in a wave pool....it would all be very random so you wouldn't like that at all.


It isn't latitude.  Nearly every other state at your latitude did significantly better than LA.

Not do we see a general pattern of south = worse.  Texas doesn't look worse than Oklahoma, for example.  Arkansas isn't much different from Tennessee.

Waves sloshing in a pool might get you a good grade in English class.  Big fat F for stats, though.  Waaaaay too many individual events to blame it on random drift.

Try again.  Why did LA do so poorly?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It isn't latitude.  Nearly every other state at your latitude did significantly better than LA.
> 
> Not do we see a general pattern of south = worse.  Texas doesn't look worse than Oklahoma, for example.  Arkansas isn't much different from Tennessee.
> 
> ...


Told you you'd reject the idea of it being random (the waves are influenced by certain things such as latitude and density [which you gloss over] and yes variant [but that's only a small part of the answer because otherwise if you look at what's happened in India San Diego and NorCal would be impacted too]). It's a complex problem and some of it is random.  That's why we get Czechs did everything right and they get 3 waves, worst in Europe.  That's why despite no mask mandate Norway and Finland largely escape things (until the end).  That's why Latin America, despite 2 countries with the most stringent and longest lockdowns in the world (Peru and Argentina) got both the virus and economic ruin.

It's an interplay of various forces, including an element of randomness.  I know you mathematicians like to simply things so you can fit it in your equations and models, but then those have been a failure throughout this thing.  Or, if you really want to reduce to 1 variable, go with the LA Supervisors are idiots and they kept schools more shuttered than the rest of the state and even closed outdoor dining for longer than the state (forcing people to go indoors).  If you are going to reduce it to 1 factor, may as well reduce it to this.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Told you you'd reject the idea of it being random (the waves are influenced by certain things such as latitude and density [which you gloss over] and yes variant [but that's only a small part of the answer because otherwise if you look at what's happened in India San Diego and NorCal would be impacted too]). It's a complex problem and some of it is random.  That's why we get Czechs did everything right and they get 3 waves, worst in Europe.  That's why despite no mask mandate Norway and Finland largely escape things (until the end).  That's why Latin America, despite 2 countries with the most stringent and longest lockdowns in the world (Peru and Argentina) got both the virus and economic ruin.
> 
> It's an interplay of various forces, including an element of randomness.  I know you mathematicians like to simply things so you can fit it in your equations and models, but then those have been a failure throughout this thing.  Or, if you really want to reduce to 1 variable, go with the LA Supervisors are idiots and they kept schools more shuttered than the rest of the state and even closed outdoor dining for longer than the state (forcing people to go indoors).  If you are going to reduce it to 1 factor, may as well reduce it to this.


Random just doesn't cut it.  There is a branch of math called martingales to handle this.  

LA has had about 4.5 million cases.  Each one of those is the result of a small number of chance interactions.   You end up with a martingale with over 20 million distinct independent variables.  And all those independent interactions are random, but with 20 million of them, it averages out.

You don't get a result of 2400 one time and 900 the next, just by luck.  It's possible to run the numbers, but we'd be asking whether the probability is 10^-10 or 10^-20.


----------



## N00B (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> SD did ok.  Worse than most of CA, but nowhere near as badly as LA.
> 
> What did Garcetti do differently?  San Jose, Oakland, and SF were all doing the same thing.  None of them had 2400 deaths per million.
> 
> The problem was not politicians.  Most of socal was more relaxed about rules.  San Diego got the easy test (wild type covid)  LA got the hard test (LA variant).  So San Diego got a C and LA got an F.


Did you forget the Central Valley is part of California and not SoCal.  Deaths per million there without the population density of LA.

Fresno alone had 1700+ deaths with a population in the 500k range.


----------



## watfly (Jun 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "For society at large, the conclusion was obvious. We had to protect older, high-risk people while younger low-risk adults kept society moving.
> But that didn’t happen. Instead, schools closed while nursing homes went unprotected. Why? It made no sense. "
> 
> I have to agree. Made no sense. To this day some still think it is/was impossible to protect the vulnerable and the only solution was the one size fits all blanket policy.
> ...


Debate has been replaced with labels.  Racist, denier, conspiracy theorist, fascist, extremist.  This assumes that you even get to express your opinion and aren't silenced or shouted down.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

N00B said:


> Did you forget the Central Valley is part of California and not SoCal.  Deaths per million there without the population density of LA.
> 
> Fresno alone had 1700+ deaths with a population in the 500k range.


Farm workers in general were hit very hard, up and down the valley.  Bunk housing is very effective at spreading covid.

The LA versus Norcal argument is mostly me giving the middle finger to the folks who keep bringing up CA death rates while ignoring the fact that, at the time, LA had a different disease than any other state.  It’s completely intellectually dishonest, and by now they ought to know it.

So, if they want to compare a high transmission disease to a low transmission disease, I can play that game.  They compare FL to CA.  I compare LA to Norcal.  Neither comparison is at all valid.

In truth, LA did reasonably with the rotten hand they were dealt last fall.  Had San Jose gotten the LA or UK variant 4 months earlier, we would have had a rough time, too.


----------



## N00B (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nope. San Diego is closer, and they have a far lower death rate.
> 
> Besides, Texas is also kicking your ass.   They’re close to Mexico, too.
> 
> Next try.


One might think proximity to the boarder would primarily impact those individuals and communities that have exposure to cross border traffic.  (% of the community in those areas and relative distance to the boarder relating to likelihood of a boarder impact)

% of population in TX and CA that are Hispanic is approximately 39% for both states, but only one of those states has large population centers near the boarder, CA.  In TX the only approximation is El Paso that faired poorly and is dramatically less populated than SoCal.

San Diego Hispanic % of population
34%

Los Angeles Hispanic % of population
47.5%

Fresno Hispanic % of population 
49.5%

I’ll take the boarder for $500 as well.  Seems to address the difference in San Diego vs Los Angeles and SoCal vs NorCal.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Farm workers in general were hit very hard, up and down the valley.  Bunk housing is very effective at spreading covid.
> 
> The LA versus Norcal argument is mostly me giving the middle finger to the folks who keep bringing up CA death rates while ignoring the fact that, at the time, LA had a different disease than any other state.  It’s completely intellectually dishonest, and by now they ought to know it.
> 
> ...


I told you at the beginning. Engineers socially distance as a way of life. I am sure they were elated at all the new delivery options that came out of the pandemic. Most I talk to have ZERO desire to go back to the office. So, yeah, those folks won't spread the virus.


----------



## N00B (Jun 4, 2021)

*Grumbles.... stupid typo followed by autocorrect.

Border not boarder (though there is some humor when discussing housing as a potential factor)


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Random just doesn't cut it.  There is a branch of math called martingales to handle this.
> 
> LA has had about 4.5 million cases.  Each one of those is the result of a small number of chance interactions.   You end up with a martingale with over 20 million distinct independent variables.  And all those independent interactions are random, but with 20 million of them, it averages out.
> 
> You don't get a result of 2400 one time and 900 the next, just by luck.  It's possible to run the numbers, but we'd be asking whether the probability is 10^-10 or 10^-20.


Ah....you missed a variable again....time....in the end pretty much the entire world is going to end up in the same place.  Given enough time, had there been no vaccine, that would have been inevitable.  Like the pool, eventually the food coloring goes all over the place.  We've seen that again in real world examples, whether Finland, Czechia, South Korea or now Taiwan.  Some places (whether NorCal, or Taiwan or Seattle) will do a little better (though note Washington and Oregon did have a late wave which was forestalled only by the vaccine)., some places (notably South America, despite some the hardest lockdowns) do a little worse.  Things, such as weather, latitude, density and variants, might influence it on the margins, but when all is said and done, pretty much the entire world is going to end up at roughly the same place, China Australia and New Zealand excepted.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I told you at the beginning. Engineers socially distance as a way of life. I am sure they were elated at all the new delivery options that came out of the pandemic. Most I talk to have ZERO desire to go back to the office. So, yeah, those folks won't spread the virus.


There are several sorts of viruses that engineers are less likely to spread.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ah....you missed a variable again....time....in the end pretty much the entire world is going to end up in the same place.  Given enough time, had there been no vaccine, that would have been inevitable.  Like the pool, eventually the food coloring goes all over the place.  We've seen that again in real world examples, whether Finland, Czechia, South Korea or now Taiwan.  Some places (whether NorCal, or Taiwan or Seattle) will do a little better (though note Washington and Oregon did have a late wave which was forestalled only by the vaccine)., some places (notably South America, despite some the hardest lockdowns) do a little worse.  Things, such as weather, latitude, density and variants, might influence it on the margins, but when all is said and done, pretty much the entire world is going to end up at roughly the same place, China Australia and New Zealand excepted.


You really think San Jose is going to end up at 2400 deaths per million?  Just like AZ and LA?

I’d take that bet.


----------



## N00B (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You really think San Jose is going to end up at 2400 deaths per million?  Just like AZ and LA?
> 
> I’d take that bet.


Grace said without a vaccine and with enough time.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You really think San Jose is going to end up at 2400 deaths per million?  Just like AZ and LA?
> 
> I’d take that bet.


Reading comprehension...but for the vaccine it would eventually


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Reading comprehension...but for the vaccine it would eventually


Not really.  Even without a vaccine, other treatments improve.  IFR goes down, and fewer people die.

Society also adjusts to lower the infection rate.  People get over their mask phobias, install better ventilation systems, and learn how to entertain outdoors.  This lowers the peak, and again fewer people die.

So, no, it isn't all equal.  Even with no vaccine, a late peak is both lower and less deadly than an early peak.


----------



## soccer5210 (Jun 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep.
> 
> You get to work at home in your basement wearing a mask and get full pay.


That is incorrect for many. My husband is a public school teacher and is back full time in person. Let’s dial down the rhetoric and constant teacher bashing please. Most are not the lazy losers that some seem to like to paint them all to be. Sheesh.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 4, 2021)

soccer5210 said:


> That is incorrect for many. My husband is a public school teacher and is back full time in person. Let’s dial down the rhetoric and constant teacher bashing please. Most are not the lazy losers that some seem to like to paint them all to be. Sheesh.


Agreed. News skews toward the extremes. What we hear most on the news is definitely not the "norm", or it wouldn't be news. It is problematic (hate that word) that we as individuals tend to be siloed in our microculture and not exposed to the norm of other microcultures within our society. Whatever we hear on the news becomes the "norm" for that culture/group. It really isn't.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really.  Even without a vaccine, other treatments improve.  IFR goes down, and fewer people die.
> 
> Society also adjusts to lower the infection rate.  People get over their mask phobias, install better ventilation systems, and learn how to entertain outdoors.  This lowers the peak, and again fewer people die.
> 
> So, no, it isn't all equal.  Even with no vaccine, a late peak is both lower and less deadly than an early peak.


Again reading comprehension. Cases not deaths. If you are finally willing to concede cases don’t matter then California’s system which was geared to cases was an absolute idiocy. Your notion of a mask phobia is also ridiculous. Compliance throughout California at the height was well in excess of 98% indoors , 95% outdoors.


----------



## espola (Jun 4, 2021)

soccer5210 said:


> That is incorrect for many. My husband is a public school teacher and is back full time in person. Let’s dial down the rhetoric and constant teacher bashing please. Most are not the lazy losers that some seem to like to paint them all to be. Sheesh.


I agree.   Cheap shots require less effort than clear thinking.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again reading comprehension. Cases not deaths. If you are finally willing to concede cases don’t matter then California’s system which was geared to cases was an absolute idiocy. Your notion of a mask phobia is also ridiculous. Compliance throughout California at the height was well in excess of 98% indoors , 95% outdoors.


Ps it’s truly awesome that over the last couple weeks there have been reviews and studies questioning the impact of lockdowns, masks have come under question given the constantly shifting cdc guidelines, saint faucis reputation has been tarnished, the lab leak theory is ascendant, even the main stream media is questioning the censorship pressures on science by certain experts and the tech companies, the Cw is embracing that kids were truly short changed over the pandemic, government restrictions around the world even in bastions such as Taiwan have failed....and yet you still hold true to your faith. I am in awe.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again reading comprehension. Cases not deaths. If you are finally willing to concede cases don’t matter then California’s system which was geared to cases was an absolute idiocy. Your notion of a mask phobia is also ridiculous. Compliance throughout California at the height was well in excess of 98% indoors , 95% outdoors.


Your original argument said nothing about cases.  You merely said we would all end up “at the same place”.

I tend to think of “outside the casket“ and “inside the casket“ as two very different places.  I very much prefer to remain outside the casket.  

If you meant that cases would be the same but deaths would be vastly different, then you ought to have been more careful in your choice of words.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your original argument said nothing about cases.  You merely said we would all end up “at the same place”.
> 
> I tend to think of “outside the casket“ and “inside the casket“ as two very different places.  I very much prefer to remain outside the casket.
> 
> If you meant that cases would be the same but deaths would be vastly different, then you ought to have been more careful in your choice of words.


the discussion has centered these many months because that’s how you all had framed it. I almost a year ago made the argument that overtime like most viruses this would be better adapted to spread and less towards death plus treatment would improve. If you are finally moving towards deaths are all that matter....hallelujah...progress.

ps under that standard in the us the emergency ended last weekend. Guess we are finally done here.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> the discussion has centered these many months because that’s how you all had framed it. I almost a year ago made the argument that overtime like most viruses this would be better adapted to spread and less towards death plus treatment would improve. If you are finally moving towards deaths are all that matter....hallelujah...progress.
> 
> ps under that standard in the us the emergency ended last weekend. Guess we are finally done here.


Nice dance.  

Garbage logic.  You still wrote A and are pretending you meant B.

But nice dance.

Your original point, that everyone will end up in the same place, is trashed of course.  First by vaccines, second by treatments, and third by the basic 1-1/R computation for total number of cases.   Once it’s all done, your “in the same place” claim has been reduced to living in some counterfactual world where we have no vaccines, do not develop teatments, and never adjust our social behavior.

But really nice dance.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nice dance.
> 
> Garbage logic.  You still wrote A and are pretending you meant B.
> 
> ...


Now whoS rewriting??? I excluded vaccines. I grant you treatments (but only by you finally conceding our argument of a year ago). And your belief that masks and restrictions are possible for years is more of your religion.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Now whoS rewriting??? I excluded vaccines. I grant you treatments (but only by you finally conceding our argument of a year ago). And your belief that masks and restrictions are possible for years is more of your religion.


It’s actually peer reviewed research that backs up masks, not religion.  And none of what I mentioned was restrictions.  It was all the kind of behavioral adjustments that societies make over time.   Just like we all learned to wear seat belts and wash our hands with soap.  

But keep dancing.   What color are the sunsets on your fantasy world with no vaccines, no treatments, and no changes to societal norms?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s actually peer reviewed research that backs up masks, not religion.  And none of what I mentioned was restrictions.  It was all the kind of behavioral adjustments that societies make over time.   Just like we all learned to wear seat belts and wash our hands with soap.
> 
> But keep dancing.   What color are the sunsets on your fantasy world with no vaccines, no treatments, and no changes to societal norms?


Again you miss the point. In the end the virus ends up in roughly the same place everywhere irrespective of controls. The only thing that makes a difference in the end is vaccines and to a lesser extent the treatments. So in the end the biggest thing that made a difference was having a leader like trump, Bibi, Johnson and maybe (if the Russians were actually inclined to believe him) Putin that was actually successful in rolling out the vaccine

but keep praying. You yourself have argued Europewas foolish in not keeping its social adjustments. Nowyou say they are possible in perpetuity.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again you miss the point. In the end the virus ends up in roughly the same place everywhere irrespective of controls. The only thing that makes a difference in the end is vaccines and to a lesser extent the treatments. So in the end the biggest thing that made a difference was having a leader like trump, Bibi, Johnson and maybe (if the Russians were actually inclined to believe him) Putin that was actually successful in rolling out the vaccine
> 
> but keep praying. You yourself have argued Europewas foolish in not keeping its social adjustments. Nowyou say they are possible in perpetuity.


What part of wearing a mask is untenable?  

It goes in your pocket, you wear it near other people, you toss it in the laundry at the end of the day, and you buy a new one as they wear out.  Is there some part of that routine which is super difficult for you?

Or, if you like disposable, you buy a new box every month, and each mask goes in the trash in the evening.  

What part of this routine do you find so difficult that makes you believe it cannot be done?  Most of us have been doing it for over a year now.


----------



## N00B (Jun 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What part of wearing a mask is untenable?
> 
> It goes in your pocket, you wear it near other people, you toss it in the laundry at the end of the day, and you buy a new one as they wear out.  Is there some part of that routine which is super difficult for you?
> 
> ...


Says the introvert to the extrovert.. what’s inconvenient about masks and concealing your facial expressions during interpersonal interactions. I don’t know... human history and evolution?  In what world do you live in where that is not ‘inconvenient’ or leads to lack of understanding in social communication?  Online text?!

We are not in a life treating pandemic now that we have access to vaccines (at least locally).  Public health guidance from 2020 is no longer relevant in our society for the general populace.  

I’d like to think you are responding to the anti-mask crowd during the life threatening pandemic, but your recent comments seem to support the academic institution’s past position even in the current context which is laughable.

Masks may or may not have been of use in the past, inconvenient/efficacious or not, but now it’s just a joke for the vaccinated... including yourself.

Science had it wrong.. I should have been masking for measles in perpetuity in addition to getting the MMR vaccine and living my life as usual, ‘cause it’s not that inconvenient’ and may add a layer of protection to myself and others. Heck, if we did that as a society there may not have been a measles outbreak at DisneyLand from unvaccinated attendees.  

R>1 has for Covid-19 been achieved due to vaccines in the US.  Next goalpost please?!


----------



## crush (Jun 5, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What part of wearing a mask is untenable?
> 
> It goes in your pocket, you wear it near other people, you toss it in the laundry at the end of the day, and you buy a new one as they wear out.  Is there some part of that routine which is super difficult for you?
> 
> ...


The laundry part of this is the funniest thing


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> None of this is partisan for me, not sure why your making it such.  I will say that some politicians have a better track record than others, but generally I'd prefer reasonable parties from all different expertise to determine public health policy, and certainly not just epidemiologists.
> 
> I'm just razzing you, but maybe you'd be more comfortable here:
> 
> ...


And that bubble can go either way.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> Says the introvert to the extrovert.. what’s inconvenient about masks and concealing your facial expressions during interpersonal interactions. I don’t know... human history and evolution?  In what world do you live in where that is not ‘inconvenient’ or leads to lack of understanding in social communication?  Online text?!
> 
> We are not in a life treating pandemic now that we have access to vaccines (at least locally).  Public health guidance from 2020 is no longer relevant in our society for the general populace.
> 
> ...


The whole discussion was for a counterfactual world without vaccines.  

The question for this world is how to raise the vaccination rate.


----------



## crush (Jun 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The whole discussion was for a counterfactual world without vaccines.
> 
> The question for this world is how to raise the vaccination rate.


I'm curious to hear your plan?  How to raise the Vax rate?  I just saw a documentary about a guy like you who thought he was right and that everyone should get the Vax.  Will guess what dummy?  Dude is now dead and he had a 99.97 chance to live before he took the shots.  Honest Q @dad4 and Ebola.  Do you believe in God?


----------



## watfly (Jun 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What part of wearing a mask is untenable?
> 
> It goes in your pocket, you wear it near other people, you toss it in the laundry at the end of the day, and you buy a new one as they wear out.  Is there some part of that routine which is super difficult for you?
> 
> ...


Bro its a struggle for me just to find my phone, wallet keys in the morning before I leave for work.


----------



## watfly (Jun 5, 2021)

I thought this was an interesting article.  Wasn't Japan one of the early "role models" for Covid response.









						As Tokyo Olympics near, why has Japan been so slow to vaccinate its citizens?
					

With the Tokyo Olympics set to start July 23, roughly 8.7% of Japan's 126 million residents had received at least one vaccine shot as of Thursday.



					www.usatoday.com
				




They better not cancel the Olympics.  And NBC better not show everything on delay,  I'm prepared to stay up all night to watch the events live.


----------



## crush (Jun 5, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 5, 2021)

Tom MacDonald - Snowflakes
					

The song is by Tom MacDonald - Snowflakes




					rumble.com


----------



## watfly (Jun 5, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> And that bubble can go either way.


Maybe so but I don't recall any on the right calling for "safe spaces".  Maybe you can refresh my memory.


----------



## crush (Jun 5, 2021)

*Breaking News:  Skinny Nicky Flips*









						Trump coming out as president Next month?
					

Well see




					www.bitchute.com
				




Skinny Nicky ((yes that Nicky)) has flipped on his pals in Philly.  Oh boy, this is getting interesting.  @Ebola & Dad, watch this clip brothers.  Game on dudes, just like I said.  Nowhere to run and no place to hide.  Engine has stopped and no more gasoline.  I heard a rumor that Nick had a face to face like Saul did and he capitulated quickly.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> Maybe so but I don't recall any on the right calling for "safe spaces".  Maybe you can refresh my memory.


You must be kidding, right? The whole gig behind trump conservatism is intolerance and cleansing of any “others”.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> One might think proximity to the boarder would primarily impact those individuals and communities that have exposure to cross border traffic.  (% of the community in those areas and relative distance to the boarder relating to likelihood of a boarder impact)
> 
> % of population in TX and CA that are Hispanic is approximately 39% for both states, but only one of those states has large population centers near the boarder, CA.  In TX the only approximation is El Paso that faired poorly and is dramatically less populated than SoCal.
> 
> ...


A LOT less “essential” factory jobs in SD too


----------



## N00B (Jun 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The whole discussion was for a counterfactual world without vaccines.
> 
> The question for this world is how to raise the vaccination rate.


So in this hypothetical world you are asserting that the death rate in NorCal would be less than SoCal due to mask compliance and laundry?

Please continue…. Otherwise it’s disingenuous to say you were responding to the hypothetical, I don’t believe that.  You seem logical enough to quote age demographics vs mortality rates or % of population capable of remote work.  You didn’t.  You referred to masking.  

So, if you want to move the goalposts or reframe the argument to your desired outcomes, just be honest about it.

Given the hypothetical you claim to be responding to, are you still saying that NorCal mask compliance  or policy is superior to SoCal?  Seems that way.  I don’t buy it and can’t find empirical support for your position.

Again, please continue and site sources on regional mask compliance, espola would/should ask the same were he not biased (while believing he’s not).

Oh, it’s the LA variant… given the hypothetical, enough time and without vaccination all you have is masks and until you show otherwise, do you still assert that the mortality rate would be different?  ‘Cause given enough time regionalist of variants become a mute point.


----------



## N00B (Jun 5, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> A LOT less “essential” factory jobs in SD too


Not in the maquiladoras in TJ.

The border for $500 please.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

The walls keep crumbling around the pro lockdowners.  I seem to recall espola telling us this wasn't happening and we were making stuff up.  Of course they'll never admit they are wrong.....









						Alameda County’s new COVID death toll is 25% lower than thought
					

County health officials reviewed COVID-19 death records and found 411 cases that were "clearly not" caused by the disease.




					oaklandside.org


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The walls keep crumbling around the pro lockdowners.  I seem to recall espola telling us this wasn't happening and we were making stuff up.  Of course they'll never admit they are wrong.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What was it I said?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> What was it I said?


You challenge our assertion that the death count was being inflated by people dying with COVID instead of of COVID.


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You challenge our assertion that the death count was being inflated by people dying with COVID instead of of COVID.


That's not even grammatical.  

If you can't show the words I used, there is no way I can respond.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> That's not even grammatical.
> 
> If you can't show the words I used, there is no way I can respond.


Lame dodge.  You know what you said and I knew you'd never own up to it.


----------



## watfly (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The walls keep crumbling around the pro lockdowners.  I seem to recall espola telling us this wasn't happening and we were making stuff up.  Of course they'll never admit they are wrong.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


5% is an error.  25% is fraud.


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Lame dodge.  You know what you said and I knew you'd never own up to it.


I'm not dodging.  I'm asking you to be specific with your charges, Ms. Attorney.

BTW,, "The walls keep crumbling around the pro lockdowners" is grace-less dancing on dead people's graves -- hundreds of thousands of them, even if the 25% adjustment holds nationwide.

And if you had read beyond the headline and not just trusted what you had been told the article was about, you would have seen that the problem was specific to one county where they were not following the California guidelines for attributing deaths to covid.

_The county’s original method was to attribute a death to COVID-19 if the coroner or medical provider (like a hospital) listed someone as being positive for the coronavirus at the time of their death. _
_
Balram said the state’s definition was different: A death can only be attributed to COVID-19 if the coroner or medical provider can show that the person died “as a direct result of COVID-19, with COVID-19 as a contributing cause of death, or in whom death caused by COVID-19 could not be ruled out.” The state came up with this definition late last year in the middle of the pandemic, after Alameda County was already using its method. 

“Obviously our definition was broader than the state’s,” Balram said, adding the 411 deaths being removed were “clearly not COVID.”_


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> 5% is an error.  25% is fraud.


Seems to be another person who didn't read the article.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm not dodging.  I'm asking you to be specific with your charges, Ms. Attorney.
> 
> BTW,, "The walls keep crumbling around the pro lockdowners" is grace-less dancing on dead people's graves -- hundreds of thousands of them, even if the 25% adjustment holds nationwide.
> 
> ...


you said it didn’t happen. We now have 3 instances of an over count: Ventura county, alameda county and nation wide pediatric deaths and hospitalizations. Can’t ever admit you are wrong, huh?  

hows it been feeling for the walls of the lockdown church to be tumbling down and your patron saints being tarnished?


----------



## N00B (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> That's not even grammatical.
> 
> If you can't show the words I used, there is no way I can respond.


I think we all know that threads on this topic were deleted in the ‘off topic’ purge of 2020 so direct quotes of prior comments may be inaccessible.

I’ll step out here to say again (only alluded to recently)... your ‘burden of proof’ seems to be very heavily skewed depending on the poster in question and their point of view.

Question everything as a pragmatist if you like, but you don’t question everyone or demand the same level of empirical support from everyone, only those you disagree with…


----------



## N00B (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> you said it didn’t happen. We now have 3 instances of an over count: Ventura county, alameda county and nation wide pediatric deaths and hospitalizations. Can’t ever admit you are wrong, huh?
> 
> hows it been feeling for the walls of the lockdown church to be tumbling down and your patron saints being tarnished?


In fairness, I think he said (approximation from memory) ‘even if there is over counting it is still less than the unreported deaths’… maybe that was dad4, but that was what I recall and I don’t feel the urge to read through all the prior posts to confirm or deny what one individual is unwilling to research on their own to contradict your statement.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> In fairness, I think he said (approximation from memory) ‘even if there is over counting it is still less than the unreported deaths’… maybe that was dad4, but that was what I recall and I don’t feel the urge to read through all the prior posts to confirm or deny what one individual is unwilling to research on their own to contradict your statement.


The conversation began when I told him what my relatives observed which is exactly what’s outlined in the article. He challenged it by citing a Medicare article saying it didn’t happen and asking me to prove it. I cited a post from an investigation in Ventura county now in the deleted thread.   Since then we’ve also had the pediatric report and alameda county

I have no evidence one way or another if there is an undercount. It’s possible. All I know both from the direct observation of certain relatives and now in 3 press sources that there is an overcount.  How much of one who knows.


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> you said it didn’t happen. We now have 3 instances of an over count: Ventura county, alameda county and nation wide pediatric deaths and hospitalizations. Can’t ever admit you are wrong, huh?
> 
> hows it been feeling for the walls of the lockdown church to be tumbling down and your patron saints being tarnished?


I have never considered myself to be in anything that might be called "the lockdown church".  One of my children lost his job when his company dissolved when their market (sports and theater ticket brokerage) completely disappeared.  Another was on unemployment for a while until his workplace (auto dealer) opened back up.  

I don't know where you get your fantasies from.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> I have never considered myself to be in anything that might be called "the lockdown church".  One of my children lost his job when his company dissolved when their market (sports and theater ticket brokerage) completely disappeared.  Another was on unemployment for a while until his workplace (auto dealer) opened back up.
> 
> I don't know where you get your fantasies from.


Sorry to hear about your kids but they are exactly why we fight the fight

but if we are being honest here, your denials not withstanding, you have been on the pro lockdowner side of things from the beginning. To say you haven’t been a supporter of dad 4 and his church is beyond disingenuous


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The conversation began when I told him what my relatives observed which is exactly what’s outlined in the article. He challenged it by citing a Medicare article saying it didn’t happen and asking me to prove it. I cited a post from an investigation in Ventura county now in the deleted thread.   Since then we’ve also had the pediatric report and alameda county
> 
> I have no evidence one way or another if there is an undercount. It’s possible. All I know both from the direct observation of certain relatives and now in 3 press sources that there is an overcount.  How much of one who knows.


On more than one occasion I pointed out that Medicare/Medicaid pays a premium to hospitals because of the increased costs of dealing with covid patients, even if that is not the reason they entered the hospital.

My entire career depended on finding objective truths in my work.  If I had just stuck with wishful thinking, very little that I produced would have worked, so it's a habit to look for background information to back up claims.  If you just want to be post anything without being challenged, then perhaps you should stay away from public debates.  "My uncle told me..." or "Ted Cruz says..." isn't going to cut it.


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Sorry to hear about your kids but they are exactly why we fight the fight
> 
> but if we are being honest here, your denials not withstanding, you have been on the pro lockdowner side of things from the beginning. To say you haven’t been a supporter of dad 4 and his church is beyond disingenuous


From what I have seen, dad4 is more often correct in what he says than you are.  I don't see how my recognition of that fact makes me a "lockdowner".  If anything, I am a bemused onlooker, although I skip over entire pages of the thread when you two are arguing about what it is that you're arguing about.


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> I think we all know that threads on this topic were deleted in the ‘off topic’ purge of 2020 so direct quotes of prior comments may be inaccessible.
> 
> I’ll step out here to say again (only alluded to recently)... your ‘burden of proof’ seems to be very heavily skewed depending on the poster in question and their point of view.
> 
> Question everything as a pragmatist if you like, but you don’t question everyone or demand the same level of empirical support from everyone, only those you disagree with…


Consider a debate between persons A and B that I find interesting or already have some knowledge about --  if I find or know already facts that support what person A says, and find nothing to back up what person B says, which one should I challenge?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> On more than one occasion I pointed out that Medicare/Medicaid pays a premium to hospitals because of the increased costs of dealing with covid patients, even if that is not the reason they entered the hospital.
> 
> My entire career depended on finding objective truths in my work.  If I had just stuck with wishful thinking, very little that I produced would have worked, so it's a habit to look for background information to back up claims.  If you just want to be post anything without being challenged, then perhaps you should stay away from public debates.  "My uncle told me..." or "Ted Cruz says..." isn't going to cut it.


You said it didn’t happen. It did. When I’ve been wrong I’ve said it including when you called me on the carpet re congressional expulsion. You can’t even muster up that courage to say “ok maybe I was wrong about it”


espola said:


> From what I have seen, dad4 is more often correct in what he says than you are.  I don't see how my recognition of that fact makes me a "lockdowner".  If anything, I am a bemused onlooker, although I skip over entire pages of the thread when you two are arguing about what it is that you're arguing about.


That’s hilarious because truth is the farthest thing you are about. Your entire thing has been to side with the experts and to side with the lockdowner church. As n008 points out you have different standards of proof depending on the subject and the poster.  For you to deny it now, now that the walls are coming down is sad. At least dad4 has the courage of his faith, which I can say at least I admire even if it is just faith


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You said it didn’t happen. It did. When I’ve been wrong I’ve said it including when you called me on the carpet re congressional expulsion. You can’t even muster up that courage to say “ok maybe I was wrong about it”
> 
> That’s hilarious because truth is the farthest thing you are about. Your entire thing has been to side with the experts and to side with the lockdowner church. As n008 points out you have different standards of proof depending on the subject and the poster.  For you to deny it now, now that the walls are coming down is sad. At least dad4 has the courage of his faith, which I can say at least I admire even if it is just faith


Still nothing specific.  You're just badgering.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> Still nothing specific.  You're just badgering.


You’ll try any tactic to avoid admitting you are wrong, won’t you?


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You’ll try any tactic to avoid admitting you are wrong, won’t you?


All you have presented is handwaving claims.  There is no logical way to respond to that except to point out what you are doing.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> All you have presented is handwaving claims.  There is no logical way to respond to that except to point out what you are doing.


typical espola. Any tactic to avoid admitting you were wrong.


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> typical espola. Any tactic to avoid admitting you were wrong.


Show me what I said that was wrong, and not just asking you to provide more information.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> Show me what I said that was wrong, and not just asking you to provide more information.


Another typical espola tactic. Lame. If you meant it you could say: “thank you for providing the info now...better late than never.”


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Another typical espola tactic. Lame. If you meant it you could say: “thank you for providing the info now...better late than never.”


Typical espola tactic - asking for facts.


----------



## N00B (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> typical espola. Any tactic to avoid admitting you were wrong.


Having observed the threads… any tactic to avoid being ‘wrong’ applies to both of you.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> Having observed the threads… any tactic to avoid being ‘wrong’ applies to both of you.


not true.I’ve owned up to my errors including to espola with the expulsion point and even told him he’s right. Similarly when we though the threshold for initial infections might too out at 20% or that Madrid might have reached herd immunity in June.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> Typical espola tactic - asking for facts.


If thats truly your motivation you can always say: “thanks for providing them...better late than never...yeah I guess this is what your relatives described”. But you won’t because we all know that’s not what you are really doing.


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If thats truly your motivation you can always say: “thanks for providing them...better late than never...yeah I guess this is what your relatives described”. But you won’t because we all know that’s not what you are really doing.


What am I really doing?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> What am I really doing?


deflecting any way possible

even that question is a deflection because you know what you are doing


----------



## N00B (Jun 5, 2021)

[





Grace T. said:


> not true.I’ve owned up to my errors including to espola with the expulsion point and even told him he’s right. Similarly when we though the threshold for initial infections might too out at 20% or that Madrid might have reached herd immunity in June.


I wasn’t being specific to this thread, my apologies, you have shown the same tendency in other threads like your ‘no elite youth keeper’ perspective. 

With a self professed interest in personalities and how that impacts thought processes, have you not examined your own? I hate to admit when I’m wrong unless proven to be so beyond a doubt… I assume you're similar. It’s an ENTP thing.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What part of wearing a mask is untenable?
> 
> It goes in your pocket, you wear it near other people, you toss it in the laundry at the end of the day, and you buy a new one as they wear out.  Is there some part of that routine which is super difficult for you?
> 
> ...


Wait, you seriously want to have everyone keep wearing a mask after the pandemic is over?


----------



## N00B (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> deflecting any way possible
> 
> even that question is a deflection because you know what you are doing


So have you guesses his personality type yet?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> [
> 
> I wasn’t being specific to this thread, my apologies, you have shown the same tendency in other threads like your ‘no elite youth keeper’ perspective.
> 
> With a self professed interest in personalities and how that impacts thought processes, have you not examined your own? I hate to admit when I’m wrong unless proven to be so beyond a doubt… I assume you're similar. It’s an ENTP thing.





N00B said:


> [
> 
> I wasn’t being specific to this thread, my apologies, you have shown the same tendency in other threads like your ‘no elite youth keeper’ perspective.
> 
> With a self professed interest in personalities and how that impacts thought processes, have you not examined your own? I hate to admit when I’m wrong unless proven to be so beyond a doubt… I assume you're similar. It’s an ENTP thing.


I think on the elite keeper thing we came down to a definitional mismatch in the end for what’s “elite” meant. My position was that there cannot be elites when everyone was a beginner but I conceded that some keepers even at 8 or 9 could be better than others. To the extent they were using “elite” as a stand in for “better” I said sure...but to the extent elite meant advanced then no.

yeah you are right Entps don’t like admitting they are wrong. That’s definitely true. But truth to me is my operating principle so totally will admit it when I’ve been shown to be wrong. Espola apparently can’t even thought he claims he’s all about the truth, at the minimum this one time


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> What was it I said?


Auditioning for Biden's "stand-in"?


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> deflecting any way possible
> 
> even that question is a deflection because you know what you are doing


My first question after your "walls are crumbling" post was "What did I say?"  You still have not responded to that.


----------



## N00B (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> My first question after your "walls are crumbling" post was "What did I say?"  You still have not responded to that.


Care to answer all the other unanswered questions posed to you at the same time?

Sorry, just calling a spade a .


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> So have you guesses his personality type yet?


I'm always amused by this.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> So have you guesses his personality type yet?


hard to read if he’s an extrovert or an introvert. He has similar narcissistic tendencies that both dad and I have displayed but takes it much further...as if his identity is staked at being right. If he is an e, maybe an entp. But the e would have displayed more self awareness of the isolation strains caused by lockdowns. The confusion thing (perhaps due to age) where he loses the path or gets focused on a tangential thread makes things hard to read as well.  He’s backed down recently from the stupid insults like  coocoo and nonsense recently which belie his claim that he’s just a fact checker.


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> hard to read if he’s an extrovert or an introvert. He has similar narcissistic tendencies that both dad and I have displayed but takes it much further...as if his identity is staked at being right. If he is an e, maybe an entp. But the e would have displayed more self awareness of the isolation strains caused by lockdowns. The confusion thing (perhaps due to age) where he loses the path or gets focused on a tangential thread makes things hard to read as well.  He’s backed down recently from the stupid insults like  coocoo and nonsense recently which belie his claim that he’s just a fact checker.


What a load of horseshit.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> My first question after your "walls are crumbling" post was "What did I say?"  You still have not responded to that.


Ok mr truth seeker. Round and round again. Goodnight. Have fun seething your fact checking shtick was rebutted in this case


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> Care to answer all the other unanswered questions posed to you at the same time?
> 
> Sorry, just calling a spade a .


What questions did I miss?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> What a load of horseshit.


Ha ha


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ok mr truth seeker. Round and round again. Goodnight. Have fun seething your fact checking shtick was rebutted in this case


Still dancing on people's graves?


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ha ha


The whole Meyers-Briggs industry is a load of horseshit.  Sorry I wasn't more specific.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> Still dancing on people's graves?


Love it when the mask drops and you show yourself for what you are mr truth seeker. Great fact checking right here


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> The whole Meyers-Briggs industry is a load of horseshit.  Sorry I wasn't more specific.











						‘Persona’: Trailer For HBO Max Doc Chronicles Influence, Growing Dangers Of Personality Tests
					

HBO Max’s Persona: The Dark Truth Behind Personality Tests explores the history and growing dangers surrounding the seemingly innocuous Myers–Briggs personality test. Created by Isabel Briggs…




					deadline.com


----------



## N00B (Jun 5, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm always amused by this.


Why?

Because you feel that Myers-Briggs is horse shit?

If so, I assume you feel the same way about critical race theory.  

Care to share your opinion ?


----------



## espola (Jun 5, 2021)

N00B said:


> Why?
> 
> Because you feel that Myers-Briggs is horse shit?
> 
> ...


I put up a link to the HBO documentary on Myers-Briggs.

I don't see the connection to critical race theory (that term seems to have different definitions depending on who you ask), but you can assume whatever you like.  I haven't given it much attention other than noting that it is popping up a lot in the news lately.


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Love it when the mask drops and you show yourself for what you are mr truth seeker. Great fact checking right here


I have no idea what that means.


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

espola said:


> I put up a link to the HBO documentary on Myers-Briggs.
> 
> I don't see the connection to critical race theory (that term seems to have different definitions depending on who you ask), but you can assume whatever you like.  I haven't given it much attention other than noting that it is popping up a lot in the news lately.


Hogwash, you can educate yourself as you have shown you’re capable of doing.   

The above is not answering the question. You asked for examples…


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> hard to read if he’s an extrovert or an introvert. He has similar narcissistic tendencies that both dad and I have displayed but takes it much further...as if his identity is staked at being right. If he is an e, maybe an entp. But the e would have displayed more self awareness of the isolation strains caused by lockdowns. The confusion thing (perhaps due to age) where he loses the path or gets focused on a tangential thread makes things hard to read as well.  He’s backed down recently from the stupid insults like  coocoo and nonsense recently which belie his claim that he’s just a fact checker.


ENTJ or ESTJ is my impression. At least adapted online or in this environment.


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> Hogwash, you can educate yourself as you have shown you’re capable of doing.
> 
> The above is not answering the question. You asked for examples…


I have felt that Myers-Brigs classifications are horseshit for years.  I was surprised recently that it was being discussed in this forum as if it were an established valid academic discipline.  It's not.

On the other hand, I have not studied CRT in any detail at all, certainly not enough to have an opinion that I would declare publicly.

Perhaps you can fill us in on why you brought this up now, and why you assumed that I would have an opinion on it.


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

espola said:


> Perhaps you can fill us in on why you brought this up now, and why you assumed that I would have an opinion on it.


Both characterize and classify people. If you have a strong opinion on one, the same opinion would likely apply to both.


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> ENTJ or ESTJ is my impression. At least adapted online or in this environment.


Aren't types supposed to be determined by self-assessments?


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

espola said:


> Aren't types supposed to be determined by self-assessments?


What was the result of your self assessment?  Other than that, the question proposed was ‘what is your guess’… that was my guess.


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> Both characterize and classify people. If you have a strong opinion on one, the same opinion would likely apply to both.


Tell  us more about what you know about CRT.


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> What was the result of your self assessment?  Other than that, the question proposed was ‘what is your guess’… that was my guess.


You are starting to see some of the weaknesses of personality typing.


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

espola said:


> Tell  us more about what you know about CRT.


Tell us more about how it is something you haven’t paid much attention to.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> Tell us more about how it is something you haven’t paid much attention to.


When you become champ of debating Ebola, the old dog with zero substance, will then ignore you.  I am the only one he ignores.  Victory is sweet.  I told Grace he and men like him are why we are in this big mess.  First of all, he does care about kids.  Second, he does not care about woman.  He's a bastard and an asshat.  He will neve admit to being wrong ((asshole and arrogant)), he won't say sorry ((arrogant ass)) and he will never say sorry. Good luck to you and Grace.  I woke up to go potty again and low and behold, Grace and Ebola are at it again.  I think you already schooled the old fart and he will ignore you soon.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

Thank you to the real men & woman who fought for freedom 77 years ago.  Lot's of liars out there today and wimps everywhere.  I'm actually appalled at how some men are such scared cats and just little sissies they have become.  Afraid and full of fear and so freaking selfish.  Not a lot of real men coming forward to stand up for truth and honesty and willing to die for kids so they can live a long life.  Were being led by wimps & wolfs in sheep's clothing!!! Leaders who lead others astray, will pay dearly for that evil decision!!!  Leaders will always be held to a higher standard of judgement.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Love it when the mask drops and you show yourself for what you are mr truth seeker. Great fact checking right here


Ask Ebola this for me.  He ignores me because I am 99% right and he hates it.....lol!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 6, 2021)

espola said:


> I have no idea what that means.


It means you aren’t a great truth seeker. You aren’t a fact checker. You, with all your coocos and nonsense, in the end are just a plain little troll (even if you don’t recognize it and not even as good as busker at doing it), more concerned with scoring points and being right than truth, and this little exchange has once and for all proven it.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)




----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It means you aren’t a great truth seeker. You aren’t a fact checker. You, with all your coocos and nonsense, in the end are just a plain little troll (even if you don’t recognize it and not even as good as busker at doing it), more concerned with scoring points and being right than truth, and this little exchange has once and for all proven it.


How many points did I get in this little exchange?


----------



## watfly (Jun 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Wait, you seriously want to have everyone keep wearing a mask after the pandemic is over?


You're impolite if you don't.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> You're impolite if you don't.


Remember he also mentioned that during upcoming flu seasons he would probably wear a mask.

He refuses to realize they don't work. People were told they were crazy for pointing out viruses are so small that the mask filtration won't work. 

Just last week Fauci in an email said the same thing and said your average mask is ineffective due to the small size of viruses.

But he continues on.

And of course he latest is saying it isn't fair to compare FL to CA.

Just digging for reasons to justify the lockdowns. Sad


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> You're impolite if you don't.


So, masking to enable others to believe they aren't neurotic is polite. I thought it was just enabling.

Newsome doesn't want to give up his power. Not surprising. It's a human condition and Newsome smells the opportunity that the fear of many in CA (and on the message board) presents. It's as if many people here prefer to be told what to do whether it makes sense or not.









						California governor won't lift virus state of emergency
					

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Most of California's coronavirus restrictions on businesses and public gatherings will end June 15. But Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday that he's not ready to give up the broad powers he has to impose those rules, saying he will keep a statewide state of emergency...




					apnews.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Remember he also mentioned that during upcoming flu seasons he would probably wear a mask.
> 
> He refuses to realize they don't work. People were told they were crazy for pointing out viruses are so small that the mask filtration won't work.
> 
> ...


Power is a hell of a drug


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 6, 2021)

espola said:


> How many points did I get in this little exchange?


I’ll award you 10,000,000 dad4 points for all you hard work (I hear it’s graded on a sliding scale anyways). Just drop the bs about you being a fact checker and truth seeker.


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Remember he also mentioned that during upcoming flu seasons he would probably wear a mask.
> 
> He refuses to realize they don't work. People were told they were crazy for pointing out viruses are so small that the mask filtration won't work.
> 
> ...


It's not the virus the masks are trapping.  It's the exhaled droplets the virus lives in or on.

*The principal mode by which people are infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is through exposure to respiratory fluids carrying infectious virus. Exposure occurs in three principal ways: (1) inhalation of very fine respiratory droplets and aerosol particles, (2) deposition of respiratory droplets and particles on exposed mucous membranes in the mouth, nose, or eye by direct splashes and sprays, and (3) touching mucous membranes with hands that have been soiled either directly by virus-containing respiratory fluids or indirectly by touching surfaces with virus on them.* 









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I’ll award you 10,000,000 dad4 points for all you hard work (I hear it’s graded on a sliding scale anyways). Just drop the bs about you being a fact checker and truth seeker.


My last post included some truthful facts.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> *Power is a hell of a drug*


K & S, I know one more drug that is even more powerful, blood!!!!  Were all in this together bro.  I saw the Gov doing lotto spin like a game show host the other night.  $50,000 spin balls all for just getting the shot.  This is starting to really creep me out.  I understand evil and darkness, but this takes the cake,,,,,,,


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> So, masking to enable others to believe they aren't neurotic is polite. I thought it was just enabling.
> 
> Newsome doesn't want to give up his power. Not surprising. It's a human condition and Newsome smells the opportunity that the fear of many in CA (and on the message board) presents. It's as if many people here prefer to be told what to do whether it makes sense or not.
> 
> ...


Run the numbers on whether the Delta variant can grow in CA.  I get a yes, even for highly vaccinated places like SCC.  No hurricane.  Just yet one more foothill.  

I assume that you are vaccinated and therefore much much lower risk.  The higher risk folks are Newsom’s constituents also.  If delta gets going here, we will have another wave and yet more deaths and high medical bills for CA families.  The governor would like to avoid that.

-Usagi


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 6, 2021)

espola said:


> It's not the virus the masks are trapping.  It's the exhaled droplets the virus lives in or on.
> 
> *The principal mode by which people are infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is through exposure to respiratory fluids carrying infectious virus. Exposure occurs in three principal ways: (1) inhalation of very fine respiratory droplets and aerosol particles, (2) deposition of respiratory droplets and particles on exposed mucous membranes in the mouth, nose, or eye by direct splashes and sprays, and (3) touching mucous membranes with hands that have been soiled either directly by virus-containing respiratory fluids or indirectly by touching surfaces with virus on them.*
> 
> ...


Yep. Same way the flu is transmitted. CDC has decades of studies showing masks don't stop the flu either.

And as stated we have the head of the NIH in his email to a colleague saying masks don't work. 

But carry on believing.


----------



## watfly (Jun 6, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> So, masking to enable others to believe they aren't neurotic is polite. I thought it was just enabling.
> 
> Newsome doesn't want to give up his power. Not surprising. It's a human condition and Newsome smells the opportunity that the fear of many in CA (and on the message board) presents. It's as if many people here prefer to be told what to do whether it makes sense or not.
> 
> ...


I agree.  We aren't obligated to indulge others neurosis...or their irrational fears.  They're obligated to stay home if they're uncomfortable.

At this point wearing a mask is anti-social behavior if your vaccinated.  If your not vaccinated you can: 1) get vaccinated or 2) assume the risk of living in the real world, or 3) stay home.  To expect others to accommodate your phobias is the ultimate in selfishness.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Remember he also mentioned that during upcoming flu seasons he would probably wear a mask.
> 
> He refuses to realize they don't work. People were told they were crazy for pointing out viruses are so small that the mask filtration won't work.
> 
> ...


The question is not whether the viruses are small.  An isolated virus of that size would dry out.   The virus hitches a ride on water. This is why people were talking about aerosols and droplets.  

This us also why it helps that so many of the masks are cotton.  Cotton has lots of hydrophilic bits on the fibers.  This is why a cotton mask gets damp as you breathe into it.  The hydrophilic parts of the cotton attract some of the aerosols and droplets you breathe out.  As the water aerosols get stuck, so do the viruses.  

So, if you want to ask whether a cotton masks catches aerosols, ask how _heavy_ aerosols are, how strong the induced dipole in an aerosol is, how strong the fixed dipole in a cotton fiber is, and what fraction of aerosols will be sucked in by that dipole-dipole attraction.  It’s much harder than comparing the size of the virus to the size of the hole.  Fortunately, there are people who already did the work on this for you. if you are willing to listen to them.  (Hint: they don’t work for Fox News.)

More recently, there is evidence that masks divert airflow up.  You breathe out warm air, the mask keeps it from travelling straight forward, and convection takes it up, away from other people.  You notice this because it also diverts the warm, moist air up into your glasses.

All of this was explained to you repeatedly.  Instead, you parrot whatever you have been told by some right wing fringe site that combs through 2000 emails, finds the ones that can be taken out of context, and misrepresents them.

-Buzz


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> I agree.  We aren't obligated to indulge others neurosis...or their irrational fears.  They're obligated to stay home if they're uncomfortable.
> 
> At this point wearing a mask is anti-social behavior if your vaccinated.  If your not vaccinated you can: 1) get vaccinated or 2) assume the risk of living in the real world, or 3) stay home.  To expect others to accommodate your phobias is the ultimate in selfishness.


Most of the true American Warriors were killed off in WWI, WWII, Korean War, Vietnam War, The Iraq and Afgani war.  Good men & woman killed and their offspring not allowed to continue.  All we got left is wimps, scientist and politicians calling the shots.  Where or where are the true warriors that are still afraid to speak up?  Are they all silent just because?  I know why they can't speak up because their in a tough spot and don't want to rock the boat at work.  That is wimp right there.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> I agree.  We aren't obligated to indulge others neurosis...or their irrational fears.  They're obligated to stay home if they're uncomfortable.
> 
> At this point wearing a mask is anti-social behavior if your vaccinated.  If your not vaccinated you can: 1) get vaccinated or 2) assume the risk of living in the real world, or 3) stay home.  To expect others to accommodate your phobias is the ultimate in selfishness.


Just run the number and tell me what happens over the next 9 months if the India/Delta variant is in the US now with 100 or so cases, vaccinations are 10% above at current levels, and we return everything to 2019 standards.

Once you’ve done that, then tell me how severe my phobia is.  Those are not unreasonable assumptions.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> All of this was explained to you repeatedly. Instead, you parrot whatever you have been told by some right wing fringe site that combs through 2000 emails, finds the ones that can be taken out of context, and misrepresents them


So it is right wing now to review emails?

And the email in question regarding masks was not taken out if context. You are a believer and look for anything to justify your beliefs.

He was asked about risks and safety. Fauci said your typical masks are not capable of stopping something as small as a virus. He said masks are "ineffective".

That is not some right wing interpretation. That is exactly what he said and it wasn't taken out if context.

And that aligns with decades of research of mask effectiveness. They found that even in medical settings, used by people wearing them correctly, they had no effect in terms of stopping the transmission of the flu.

The only thing that changed this past yr was the politics of the issue and governments decided they needed the appearance of being able to do something. So they recommended masks.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Once you’ve done that, then tell me how severe my phobia is. Those are not unreasonable assumptions.


This is your argument for long term restrictions and wearing useless masks


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep. Same way the flu is transmitted. CDC has decades of studies showing masks don't stop the flu either.
> 
> And as stated we have the head of the NIH in his email to a colleague saying masks don't work.
> 
> But carry on believing.


I point out that your "small size of the viruses" comment was incorrect.  Then you suggest that I am the one just believing.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> then tell me how severe my phobia is.


Actually...phobia sums up your position perfectly. And explains why you argue as you do.

You have a phobia.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 6, 2021)

espola said:


> I point out that your "small size of the viruses" comment was incorrect.  Then you suggest that I am the one just believing.


So you are saying Fauci is incorrect when he refers to the small size of viruses?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep. Same way the flu is transmitted. CDC has decades of studies showing masks don't stop the flu either.
> 
> And as stated we have the head of the NIH in his email to a colleague saying masks don't work.
> 
> But carry on believing.


Same as flu?

Ok.  Let’s find out what you know about the flu.  

First, tell us which whether flu has a protein coat, whether covid has a protein coat, and the role of a protein coat in hardening a virus.  This will affect whether isolated virus particles can spread through the mask.

Once you have done that, tell us whether flu likes larger or smaller water drops, whether covid likes larger or smaller droplets, and how particle size affects the probability that a water particle will be diverted by the dipole interactions with those hydrophilic bits.

You can do it!  It’s just like Milliken’s oil drop experiment, except the particles are different sizes.  That gives you a square/cube law problem, because goes by the cube of the radius, but dipole moment is different….

Next, show us your aging study about masks and influenza source control.  We’ll want to know the size of the study, and the error bounds on the estimated effect on transmissibility.  You should be able to find something like “95% confident that the effect of masks is between negative 57% and positive 45%”.  If you’re really lucky, they will tell you the size of the effect the stidy was capable, and not capable, of finding.   For example, the Dutch study was designed to detect a 50% decrease in transmission to the wearer.  ( It failed to do so. )

I’ll bet that you haven’t a clue how to do any of that.

Provide a link to your silly smoking gun email.  We can read it for you and tell you what they were really saying.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Provide a link to your silly smoking gun email. We can read it for you and tell you what they were really saying


You have Google. Look it up it is easy. Stop pretending you can't and/or the email was taken out if context


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Actually...phobia sums up your position perfectly. And explains why you argue as you do.
> 
> You have a phobia.


Bingo.  He fears death and......


----------



## watfly (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just run the number and tell me what happens over the next 9 months if the India/Delta variant is in the US now with 100 or so cases, vaccinations are 10% above at current levels, and we return everything to 2019 standards.
> 
> Once you’ve done that, then tell me how severe my phobia is.  Those are not unreasonable assumptions.


No offense but I don't need to run any numbers to determine that you have a severe phobia.  You've proven it over 298 pages.  The sky is not falling and none of your worst case scenarios have come true.

Even if we run into some future bumps with the virus, which I don't expect, but are possible, we are way past the point of further lockdowns which would be untenable, unreasonable and unproductive.

We're both entitled to our own phobias, but were not entitled to have the public cater to them.  It's our own personal responsibility deal with them.  You don't have to come out of your bunker, but we're not required to join you.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> No offense but I don't need to run any numbers to determine that you have a severe phobia.  You've proven it over 298 pages.  The sky is not falling and none of your worst case scenarios have come true.
> 
> Even if we run into some future bumps with the virus, which I don't expect, but are possible, we are way past the point of further lockdowns which would be untenable, unreasonable and unproductive.
> 
> We're both entitled to our own phobias, but were not entitled to have the public cater to them.  It's our own personal responsibility deal with them.  You don't have to come out of your bunker, but we're not required to join you.


These Dads in Cali are milk toast wimps bro.  I can;t take it anymore.  I had one ask me kindly to wear my mask this morning.  I kindly said i had my "Vs" and he said, "ok, but can you please put mask on.  People are scared still."  I said no more and he said, "ok."


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is your argument for long term restrictions and wearing useless masks


 I said 2 months ago that my opinion on ending masks depends on what we learn about variants.

Since then, we have found a variant that is much more transmissible than the UK and LA variants.  Turns out it is also more able to cause damage to younger people.

Which means we have to keep some of our anti-covid measures longer.  Which sucks, in a first world problem kind of way.   It sucks even more for the countries which will be facing the same thing with almost no vaccines.


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You have Google. Look it up it is easy. Stop pretending you can't and/or the email was taken out if context


You made the claim.  It is your responsibility to provide the link.


----------



## espola (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So you are saying Fauci is incorrect when he refers to the small size of viruses?


"Dr. Fauci still has his job, Donald Trump doesn't."  -- Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, today.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> No offense but I don't need to run any numbers to determine that you have a severe phobia.  You've proven it over 298 pages.  The sky is not falling and none of your worst case scenarios have come true.
> 
> Even if we run into some future bumps with the virus, which I don't expect, but are possible, we are way past the point of further lockdowns which would be untenable, unreasonable and unproductive.
> 
> We're both entitled to our own phobias, but were not entitled to have the public cater to them.  It's our own personal responsibility deal with them.  You don't have to come out of your bunker, but we're not required to join you.


You are saying that we, as a society, should make a trade.  Accept 50K additional deaths.  In return, we do not have to wear masks.

That is a bad deal.  The cost of 50K deaths is not worth the benefit of 9 months without masks.

School and business closures are a different question.  But masks?  You really want to accept a significantly higher death rate just to avoid masks?


----------



## watfly (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are saying that we, as a society, should make a trade.  Accept 50K additional deaths.  In return, we do not have to wear masks.
> 
> That is a bad deal.  The cost of 50K deaths is not worth the benefit of 9 months without masks.
> 
> School and business closures are a different question.  But masks?  You really want to accept a significantly higher death rate just to avoid masks?


I'm following the "science" of the CDC.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So it is right wing now to review emails?
> 
> And the email in question regarding masks was not taken out if context. You are a believer and look for anything to justify your beliefs.
> 
> ...


Link?  I have no idea which of the emails you are referring to.  Sounds like you’re quoting Fauci from February, 2020, and some decades old influenza studies that never had the sample size to detect a moderate effect.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

crush said:


> These Dads in Cali are milk toast wimps bro.  I can;t take it anymore.  I had one ask me kindly to wear my mask this morning.  I kindly said i had my "Vs" and he said, "ok, but can you please put mask on.  People are scared still."  I said no more and he said, "ok."


Interesting.  Did you have your Vs?


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just run the number and tell me what happens over the next 9 months if the India/Delta variant is in the US now with 100 or so cases, vaccinations are 10% above at current levels, and we return everything to 2019 standards.


Florida & Texas stay open, but that doesn’t have anything to do with the numbers.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Interesting.  Did you have your Vs?


Do you believe in God, yes or no?  Today is D-Day so answer honestly too.  No more freaking lies, ok?  If you answer correctly, I will answer honestly with you.  If no answer to my God Q, then sorry Charlie, no "V" answer.....lol.  Come on man


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> Florida & Texas stay open, but that doesn’t have anything to do with the numbers.


It isn't the numbers- not even the financial ones.  There is no economic case for TX ending the mask mandates or FL picking a fight with the cruise ship industry.  Those are political attempts to win the anti-mask and anti-vax vote.

If you want to help the economy, you allow vaccine passports for high risk industries.  Carnival can sell more tickets to “100% vaccinated” cruises than they can sell for unvaccinated cruises.


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It isn't the numbers- not even the financial ones.  There is no economic case for TX ending the mask mandates or FL picking a fight with the cruise ship industry.  Those are political attempts to win the anti-mask and anti-vax vote.
> 
> If you want to help the economy, you allow vaccine passports for high risk industries.  Carnival can sell more tickets to “100% vaccinated” cruises than they can sell for unvaccinated cruises.


Ummm… Carnival can sell more cruise tickets when everyone can buy them, vaccinated or not.  Are you sure you understand their business model and customers?

Sometimes we speak to fast and only from our own perspective.  Think about your statement and if you still believe it after considering consumer behavior, demographics, basic economics and plain logic…. I’d love to hear your reason.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> Ummm… Carnival can sell more cruise tickets when everyone can buy them, vaccinated or not.  Are you sure you understand their business model and customers?
> 
> Sometimes we speak to fast and only from our own perspective.  Think about your statement and if you still believe it after considering consumer behavior, demographics, basic economics and plain logic…. I’d love to hear your reason.


I do.  Cruise lines took a huge reputation hit with the Diamond Princess.  Their core market includes a large chunk of people over 65.  They can’t afford another 2 weeks of news stories about a covid boat. 

The benefit from an appearance of safety is more important than the small number of tickets they might sell to the anti-vax community. 

This is why Norwegian is already threatening to skip Florida ports if they can’t verify vaccine status.  It’s a long sail from Georgia to Freeport, but that’s better than risking your brand.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

crush said:


> Do you believe in God, yes or no?  Today is D-Day so answer honestly too.  No more freaking lies, ok?  If you answer correctly, I will answer honestly with you.  If no answer to my God Q, then sorry Charlie, no "V" answer.....lol.  Come on man


No more lies?

When you said you had been vaccinated, was that the truth?


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I do.  Cruise lines took a huge reputation hit with the Diamond Princess.  Their core market includes a large chunk of people over 65.  They can’t afford another 2 weeks of news stories about a covid boat.
> 
> The benefit from an appearance of safety is more important than the small number of tickets they might sell to the anti-vax community.
> 
> This is why Norwegian is already threatening to skip Florida ports if they can’t verify vaccine status.  It’s a long sail from Georgia to Freeport, but that’s better than risking your brand.


So your answer is PR?  Or, the possibility of bad PR therefore cut off 40+ percent of the population from buying tickets? Let me just pitch that to the board… Oh, BTW the average age on Carnival is closer to 45 with families seeking a budget cruise being a core demographic.  Guess who is discriminated against by that policy?

Guess the #2 cruise operator disagrees with the possibility of bad PR being a greater business concern than economics.





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




Norwegian has an issue with the FL requirement not to ask for proof of vaccination, that is also different than requiring vaccination.

There is no business reason to require vaccinations.  Worried about PR?  Then require a test for those without proof of vaccination.


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No more lies?
> 
> When you said you had been vaccinated, was that the truth?


Fairly sure you both already know the answers to your respective questions. No.


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> Fairly sure you both already know the answers to your respective questions. No.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No more lies?
> 
> When you said you had been vaccinated, was that the truth?


Listen, answer the question first.  Do you, dad of 4 believe in God, yes or no?  If Ebola wants to jump in he can.  Once you answer yes or no, then I will give you 100% truth.  I said I got all my V's bro.......


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

BTW, does everyone see what is going on yet?  WTFUASBAPOD!!!!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just run the number and tell me what happens over the next 9 months if the India/Delta variant is in the US now with 100 or so cases, vaccinations are 10% above at current levels, and we return everything to 2019 standards.
> 
> Once you’ve done that, then tell me how severe my phobia is.  Those are not unreasonable assumptions.


I am still waiting for all the folks to fall over from myocarditis that canceled the college football season. We have survived all the previous variants, are highly vaccinated - and that number is still growing slowly and we have many people who already had it and didn't get the vaccine. It seems pretty clear that "token" measures don't really do anything to slow the spread - and that's all they are at this point. The experts have been wrong too many times. The doomsday predictions for GA when they first opened up, Florida when they opened up in late summer, and Texas when they opened in the spring - all came up empty. At this point, I'm sure that I am at more risk when I take my daughter out for driving lessons. It's time to move on.


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)

Ronnie would like to share a few words on this great day, D-Day 2021   Can you feel the calm before storm K & S?  77 years ago we lost some of our best of the best because some rich bankers from around the world saw a way to make a buck off all of us using film and war and hate and murder.  









						We The People: Ronald Reagan
					

Ronald Reagan gave a timeless farewell speech in 1989 that is perhaps more important now than ever.




					rumble.com


----------



## crush (Jun 6, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 6, 2021)

"A *quarter of all deaths previously attributed to COVID-19 in Alameda County weren’t actually caused by the coronavirus*, the Alameda County Public Health Department announced today."

"Brit Hume adds that, “*The overcounting fed the panic that produced the lockdowns, school closings and other regrettable decisions.”*

As Jordan Schachtel wrote late last month in a Substack article titled, “What to make of the COVID-19 lab leak theory,” “The virus was not the cause for global catastrophe. It was *the response to the virus* that crippled the global economy and our society. *The disease was not nearly as damaging as the ‘cure’ for the disease.”*


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Link?  I have no idea which of the emails you are referring to.  Sounds like you’re quoting Fauci from February, 2020, and some decades old influenza studies that never had the sample size to detect a moderate effect.


The fact you haven't read the emails or refer to those orgs that have as right wing, means you live in a news bubble. Much of the press don't report on the emails because what they contain. Ie info that goes against their reporting on certain issues talked about since the beginning of covid.

Try googling "Fauci emails". If you actually cared you would have taken a look earlier.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> So your answer is PR?  Or, the possibility of bad PR therefore cut off 40+ percent of the population from buying tickets? Let me just pitch that to the board… Oh, BTW the average age on Carnival is closer to 45 with families seeking a budget cruise being a core demographic.  Guess who is discriminated against by that policy?
> 
> Guess the #2 cruise operator disagrees with the possibility of bad PR being a greater business concern than economics.
> 
> ...


That is not how I read Royal Carribbean‘s Florida vaccine policy.  They require them out of Seattle, but not out of Miami.  In both states they require crew to be fully vaccinated.  

That sounds like it may be a response to the political climate in each area.  Requiring vaccines in Miami would offend the FL governor.  Failing to require vaccines out of Seattle would offend the WA governor.  So they need different rules to respond to the different politics.

It is worth noting that the WA policy is set, but the FL policy is “still being written”.  They will have a testing requirement, but cannot tell you what it will be.  That sounds like they are still trying to figure out how to make things work without a vaccine requirement.


----------



## N00B (Jun 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That is not how I read Royal Carribbean‘s Florida vaccine policy.  They require them out of Seattle, but not out of Miami.  In both states they require crew to be fully vaccinated.
> 
> That sounds like it may be a response to the political climate in each area.  Requiring vaccines in Miami would offend the FL governor.  Failing to require vaccines out of Seattle would offend the WA governor.  So they need different rules to respond to the different politics.
> 
> It is worth noting that the WA policy is set, but the FL policy is “still being written”.  They will have a testing requirement, but cannot tell you what it will be.  That sounds like they are still trying to figure out how to make things work without a vaccine requirement.


Again, some revenue is better than none, you know… real business reasons.  

There are business constraints, like Seattle… some revenue is better than none.

Does that support your position or refute mine.  NO!

Next  please?!


----------



## dad4 (Jun 6, 2021)

N00B said:


> Again, some revenue is better than none, you know… real business reasons.
> 
> There are business constraints, like Seattle… some revenue is better than none.
> 
> ...


Reputation is a real business reason.  Brand names can be worth billions, and they can be destroyed by bad press.

One or two more covid boats could sink "Princess" as a name.  Whatever goodwill they have on the balance sheets would just get written off.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 7, 2021)

N00B said:


> Tell us more about how it is something you haven’t paid much attention to.


You have the characteristic deflection and avoidance common to those that only parrot what they are told to believe without any further thought.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Same as flu?
> 
> Ok.  Let’s find out what you know about the flu.
> 
> ...


Waaaay too much work for a lazy ass laying around on the conspiracy porch hound. Nutters never do research they just expect you to except the narrative they have been fed.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So it is right wing now to review emails?
> 
> And the email in question regarding masks was not taken out if context. You are a believer and look for anything to justify your beliefs.
> 
> ...


Only other nutters assume to see your logic and not see through your mischaracterizations.


----------



## crush (Jun 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Only other nutters assume to see your logic and not see through your mischaracterizations.


Cheater!!!


----------



## crush (Jun 7, 2021)

@Grace & @Hound @K&S and all my pals.  Cheers to you   I had a dear liberal friend tell me last night he asked God for help for the first since his mom died when he was a little boy.  His mom died of cancer and he blamed God all this time.  He finally let it all out and it was amazing.  Get it out you guys and ask for help.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Waaaay too much work for a lazy ass laying around on the conspiracy porch hound. Nutters never do research they just expect you to except the narrative they have been fed.


Doesn’t mean I can’t mock him for it.   You can tell hound ten times that professional epidemiology researchers have already read the old influenza mask studies, and he still thinks he knows something they missed.   It’s like the guy who yells at the TV telling Neymar how to play ball.  Knows nothing, but thinks he does.


----------



## crush (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Doesn’t mean I can’t mock him for it.   You can tell hound ten times that professional epidemiology researchers have already read the old influenza mask studies, and he still thinks he knows something they missed.   It’s like the guy who yells at the TV telling Neymar how to play ball.  Knows nothing, but thinks he does.


Can't answer a simple yes or no Q?  Time to get you on record and before all witnesses.  Yes or no?


----------



## crush (Jun 7, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Jun 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The fact you haven't read the emails or refer to those orgs that have as right wing, means you live in a news bubble. Much of the press don't report on the emails because what they contain. Ie info that goes against their reporting on certain issues talked about since the beginning of covid.
> 
> Try googling "Fauci emails". If you actually cared you would have taken a look earlier.


You think I’m going to read 2000 emails, just so I can try to guess which 5 you misinterpret?  Big fat no to that.

Google search doesn’t do what you think it does.  Google personalizes.  They predict what you personally will read, and feed you that.  When you google “Fauci emails”, you get a list of conspiracy stories.  When I google “Fauci emails”, I get a list of articles about how conspiracy nutters are misinterpreting the emails.  The search engine tries to give each of us what we want, but that creates a little news bubble around each of us.

Therefore, if you have a point to make about the emails, make it with links.  Don’t just assume that everyone else reads the same right wing trash you do.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Doesn’t mean I can’t mock him for it.   You can tell hound ten times that professional epidemiology researchers have already read the old influenza mask studies, and he still thinks he knows something they missed.   It’s like the guy who yells at the TV telling Neymar how to play ball.  Knows nothing, but thinks he does.


You have the EU CDC recently coming out saying there is no evidence and that masks need to be studied more. Etc. Etc. 

Then of course you have the fact that outcomes between places with mask mandates vs those with lesser mandates have ended up in the same place, etc. 

But as you said...you have a PHOBIA and your fear overrides the real world. 

You have constantly been wrong about your predictions of doom. 

Now apparently you are worried about a new variant and use that to continue to stoke your phobia.


----------



## N00B (Jun 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You have the characteristic deflection and avoidance common to those that only parrot what they are told to believe without any further thought.


You have the characteristic of classifying others into groups and ascribing beliefs onto them.

I found it funny to respond to espola in the manner he speaks to others.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You think I’m going to read 2000 emails, just so I can try to guess which 5 you misinterpret? Big fat no to that.


If you are not smart enough to use Google to find a very specific email, that says a lot about you. Pretty simple stuff.

The reality is you don't want to look because it undermines your "beliefs". It has nothing to do with OH I have to read 2k emails. You don't. Google can pull up very specific results. But you know that.

And your lame excuse about personalized results is just that. I have no problem finding news stories and data coming from a variety of sources. You should try expanding your horizon sometime.

It is very easy to see who gets info from strictly one side of the spectrum. They are very unaware of certain things. They also tend to assume anything that doesn't fit there world view is simply crazy stuff. You fall fully into this area. Husker even more so. I know it can be uncomfortable for some to read or watch something that doesn't fit their world view. But you should try it sometime and do it on a regular basis. You will be better informed over a wide range of issues.


----------



## crush (Jun 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You have the EU CDC recently coming out saying there is no evidence and that masks need to be studied more. Etc. Etc.
> 
> Then of course you have the fact that outcomes between places with mask mandates vs those with lesser mandates have ended up in the same place, etc.
> 
> ...


No Hound, Dad 4 phobia is Zeusophobia.  Zeusophobia is the *fear of a god* or gods. The term is derived from Zeus, the highest of the Greek gods. My adopted father had it really bad.  He lost his first wife and baby at birth because of human error.  My dad was pissed off at God and blamed him 100% for his loss of his wife and baby and never went to church.  Then he got Parkinson's and he was super upset with God for that man made illness.  It wasn't until a few months before he died that he asked me to help him with his faith.  It was a miracle to see him become like a little child. He helped me when I came home from hospital and I held him as he died.  I was going to the VA three times a week for three months straight.  I got to meet so many Vets Hound.  These guys were treated like shit after wars and it has to stop now!!!  I saw first hand how war hero's were being treated.  Anyway, my dad came to faith and I can;t wait to see him again.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 7, 2021)

crush said:


> Can't answer a simple yes or no Q?  Time to get you on record and before all witnesses.  Yes or no?


You lost my respect when you started lying about your vaccine status.


----------



## crush (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You lost my respect when you *started lying* about your vaccine status.


I never lied once.  I said, "I got all my V's."  That is 100% true statement.  The cat has your tongue because your afraid of Zeus.  Zeus is fake.   God is love.  I hear to help you.  Tonight as you lay yourself to bed, think of God and crush.  I will say based on the evidence that you are an atheist.  I have a high success rate of turning non-believers into believers.  I live for this kind of battle for the soul.  God wants you


----------



## dad4 (Jun 7, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> If you are not smart enough to use Google to find a very specific email, that says a lot about you. Pretty simple stuff.
> 
> The reality is you don't want to look because it undermines your "beliefs". It has nothing to do with OH I have to read 2k emails. You don't. Google can pull up very specific results. But you know that.
> 
> ...


Google’s top hit for me was the USA today article explaining that the mask claim about Fauci’s email is false.  That on Feb 5, 2020, Fauci explained that masks work better as source control than as PPE.  And that, therefore, wearing a mask to the airport will not significantly protect the wearer.









						Fact check: Missing context in claim about emails, Fauci's position on masks
					

A Feb. 5 email Dr. Anthony Fauci sent is being held up as evidence he knew masks were ineffective. That is missing context.



					www.usatoday.com
				




I can’t say whether they were refuting the same nut-job conspiracy theory that you hold, or a different one.  Doesn’t really matter, I suppose.

What’s the top hit for you?  Some wacked conspiracy theory from Tucker Carlson about how Fauci secretly believes that masks don’t work, but told us all to wear them because he wanted us to feel like we were helping?


----------



## texanincali (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> professional epidemiology researchers have already read the old influenza mask studies, and he still thinks he knows something they missed.


I’ve been observing from afar for some time, but would like to know what these researchers found in these studies.

If they found masks work in preventing the flu, are they complicit in the millions of flue deaths that have occurred?


----------



## espola (Jun 7, 2021)

texanincali said:


> I’ve been observing from afar for some time, but would like to know what these researchers found in these studies.
> 
> If they found masks work in preventing the flu, are they complicit in the millions of flue deaths that have occurred?


The annually-updated  flu vaccine has potentially saved even more lives.


----------



## espola (Jun 7, 2021)

N00B said:


> You have the characteristic of classifying others into groups and ascribing beliefs onto them.
> 
> I found it funny to respond to espola in the manner he speaks to others.


And you do it so well.


----------



## N00B (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Reputation is a real business reason.  Brand names can be worth billions, and they can be destroyed by bad press.
> 
> One or two more covid boats could sink "Princess" as a name.  Whatever goodwill they have on the balance sheets would just get written off.


Odd how things work outside of the public sector. They don’t take the don’t ‘write off 40+ of potential customer base’ consequence of policy or the known loss of revenue while discriminating against their core customers vs the possibility of bad PR that would not impact their bottom line to the same degree in the event that such a possibility came to be.

Airlines, hotels, theme parks, restaurants, gyms, professional sports and entertainment venues are all in the same ‘boat’. They will all try to operate safely to protect their customers and avoid bad PR, but cut off their customers by choice instead of by regulation… not gonna happen.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 7, 2021)

crush said:


> I never lied once.  I said, "I got all my V's."  That is 100% true statement.  The cat has your tongue because your afraid of Zeus.  Zeus is fake.   God is love.  I hear to help you.  Tonight as you lay yourself to bed, think of God and crush.  I will say based on the evidence that you are an atheist.  I have a high success rate of turning non-believers into believers.  I live for this kind of battle for the soul.  God wants you


Unless you went in for your covid shots, saying “I got all my Vs” is a deliberate attempt to deceive the other person.  That is a lie.  Words are communication, and you chose to communicate a falsehood.

I am sure that, like most liars, you have some story about how, technically, your lie wasn’t really a lie.  The coach who found a way to sell you your own dreams?  I’m sure he has some angle where his words didn’t technically count as a lie, either.

Tell yourself whatever story you like.  You lied, and apparently plan on continuing to lie.


----------



## N00B (Jun 7, 2021)

Scientists: The Pandemic Might Have Caused Two Flu Strains to Go Extinct
					

Pandemic saftey measures might have caused two strains of the flu to go extinct. That means making a flu vaccine is much easier going forward.




					www.google.com


----------



## N00B (Jun 7, 2021)

N00B said:


> Scientists: The Pandemic Might Have Caused Two Flu Strains to Go Extinct
> 
> 
> Pandemic saftey measures might have caused two strains of the flu to go extinct. That means making a flu vaccine is much easier going forward.
> ...


That link didn’t work well…





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com


----------



## espola (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Unless you went in for your covid shots, saying “I got all my Vs” is a deliberate attempt to deceive the other person.  That is a lie.  Words are communication, and you chose to communicate a falsehood.
> 
> I am sure that, like most liars, you have some story about how, technically, your lie wasn’t really a lie.  The coach who found a way to sell you your own dreams?  I’m sure he has some angle where his words didn’t technically count as a lie, either.
> 
> Tell yourself whatever story you like.  You lied, and apparently plan on continuing to lie.


I'm not going to take crux off the ignore list until he discloses the source of his drugs.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It isn't latitude.  Nearly every other state at your latitude did significantly better than LA.
> 
> Not do we see a general pattern of south = worse.  Texas doesn't look worse than Oklahoma, for example.  Arkansas isn't much different from Tennessee.
> 
> ...


You still arguing the merits of PCR test.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Farm workers in general were hit very hard, up and down the valley.  Bunk housing is very effective at spreading covid.


Speaking of bunk.  You're still here.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It’s actually peer reviewed research that backs up masks, not religion.


Useless standard when you consider the PCR test does not test for the corona virus.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What part of wearing a mask is untenable?


The pre-mask, PCR test.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You must be kidding, right? The whole gig behind trump conservatism is intolerance and cleansing of any “others”.


Coocoo


----------



## Glitterhater (Jun 7, 2021)

JFC. I feel like this thread is the epitome of a car wreck that you cannot look away from!

"are y'all still here arguing about masks"
- glitter


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> None of this is partisan for me, not sure why your making it such.  I will say that some politicians have a better track record than others, but generally I'd prefer reasonable parties from all different expertise to determine public health policy, and certainly not just epidemiologists.
> 
> I'm just razzing you, but maybe you'd be more comfortable here:
> 
> ...


Husker went to the bubble in November of 2016.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 7, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> JFC. I feel like this thread is the epitome of a car wreck that you cannot look away from!
> 
> "are y'all still here arguing about masks"
> - glitter


Nah.  PCR test.


----------



## espola (Jun 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> typical espola. Any tactic to avoid admitting you were wrong.











						Never Admit You Are Wrong
					

The Official Dilbert Website featuring Scott Adams Dilbert strips, animation, mashups and more starring Dilbert, Dogbert, Wally, The Pointy Haired Boss, Alice, Asok, Dogberts New Ruling Class and more.




					dilbert.com


----------



## texanincali (Jun 7, 2021)

espola said:


> The annually-updated  flu vaccine has potentially saved even more lives.


Understood, and hopefully the Covid vaccine does the same.  Neither vaccine (if you want to call them that) keep you from catching the either virus.  If masks work so well, I am wondering why these expert epidemiologists and the like haven't advocated for mask wearing during flu season over the years.  If this mask study indicated anything conclusive, millions of lives could have been saved.


----------



## espola (Jun 7, 2021)

texanincali said:


> Understood, and hopefully the Covid vaccine does the same.  Neither vaccine (if you want to call them that) keep you from catching the either virus.  If masks work so well, I am wondering why these expert epidemiologists and the like haven't advocated for mask wearing during flu season over the years.  If this mask study indicated anything conclusive, millions of lives could have been saved.


The mask history of the last year shows conclusively that people (at least in this country) will be resistant to mask mandates up to the point of physical violence.  We already have a proven vaccine and propaganda program for flu and proven medications such as Tamiflu.  Even without those, we can all practice simple acts to reduce the rate of infection,  things we should have learned in 6th-grade health class -- stay home if you are sick, use a tissue to catch sneezes and coughs, and wash your hands.


----------



## texanincali (Jun 7, 2021)

espola said:


> The mask history of the last year shows conclusively that people (at least in this country) will be resistant to mask mandates up to the point of physical violence.  We already have a proven vaccine and propaganda program for flu and proven medications such as Tamiflu.  Even without those, we can all practice simple acts to reduce the rate of infection,  things we should have learned in 6th-grade health class -- stay home if you are sick, use a tissue to catch sneezes and coughs, and wash your hands.


No doubt.  So is your feeling there would be an acceptable number of annual Covid deaths, similar to how we've just learned to live with the flu?  Do you plan on sticking with the mask alongside the simple practices to reduce flu/Covid transmission?


----------



## espola (Jun 7, 2021)

texanincali said:


> No doubt.  So is your feeling there would be an acceptable number of annual Covid deaths, similar to how we've just learned to live with the flu?  Do you plan on sticking with the mask alongside the simple practices to reduce flu/Covid transmission?


I wouldn't call the number acceptable, but prefer the word inevitable.  The annual deaths from flu are close to the range of deaths from highway accidents - so maybe we need a Ralph Nader-style book - Unsafe At Any Sneeze.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 7, 2021)

texanincali said:


> Understood, and hopefully the Covid vaccine does the same.  Neither vaccine (if you want to call them that) keep you from catching the either virus.  If masks work so well, I am wondering why these expert epidemiologists and the like haven't advocated for mask wearing during flu season over the years.  If this mask study indicated anything conclusive, millions of lives could have been saved.


Why do you assume that experts understood masks in 2019?

They didn't know.  That's why they initially said "no masks" back in Feb 2020.  

It also seems unlikely that people would be willing to mask up for flu, now that we do know.


----------



## texanincali (Jun 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why do you assume that experts understood masks in 2019?
> 
> They didn't know.  That's why they initially said "no masks" back in Feb 2020.
> 
> It also seems unlikely that people would be willing to mask up for flu, now that we do know.


To be honest, I am just assuming, which can be very dangerous.  I mean, if our experts can eradicate certain diseases, send people to the moon and create nuclear energy, I would think they would know whether or not masks worked before 2019.  They've been around for many, many decades.  I find it hard to believe in the technology driven world we live in that our experts had no idea prior to 2019 whether or not masks helped against respiratory viruses.  

I actually like the seat belt analogy people use.  Seatbelts have been proven (through data a tests) to save lives and thus have become completely accepted by the general population.  If these masks have the ability to save lives, I would like the data and tests to be made public.  If they can save lives, I think it is entirely unfair for anyone to decide what is inevitable or acceptable as to who we save and who we don't.  If these masks can save people from dying of the flu, we should be wearing them every flu season.  

Do you not agree with that?


----------



## N00B (Jun 7, 2021)

texanincali said:


> If these masks can save people from dying of the flu, we should be wearing them every flu season.
> 
> Do you not agree with that?


From my perspective (I know you were asking someone else), no.

Seatbelts are a requirement, more akin to a mask mandate.  We don’t recommend them, we require them.  Doing so in a state of emergency has been accomplished, but I don’t see that in a non-pandemic situation.

If the data suggests masking is effective protecting the wearer, I would expect Recommendations to mask up.

If the data shows it helps protect others from the sick, I would expect masking recommendations to be minimal (there is no justification for requiring heathy individuals to mask) but that other policies would be more effective.  Covid like sick time expansions to avoid employees returning to the office when under the weather for example.

Either way, I assume that there will be an increase in flu vaccinations and social compliance to staying away from others when not feeling well.  Not to mention the article I posted about two flu strains potentially being eradicated.  Flu vaccines will likely be more accurate this season.  That combined with the Covid related awareness/requirements will further drive down the spread of flu… I have a fever today, can’t pass the temperature screening at work so I’ll stay home, etc.

If another flu strain or two is eradicated on the way, that’s even better news.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 7, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> JFC. I feel like this thread is the epitome of a car wreck that you cannot look away from!
> 
> "are y'all still here arguing about masks"
> - glitter


Thanks for checking in on the crazies, @Glitterhater. It's not a coincidence that "mask" is a four-letter word. Of the 10 posts after yours, 6 had that profanity. When numbers are as encouraging as these are, it appears to be the only argument in town.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 7, 2021)

N00B said:


> From my perspective (I know you were asking someone else), no.
> 
> Seatbelts are a requirement, more akin to a mask mandate.  We don’t recommend them, we require them.  Doing so in a state of emergency has been accomplished, but I don’t see that in a non-pandemic situation.
> 
> ...


Not quite clear whether the flu shot will be more accurate.  Hard to hit the target when we have so little data....

I do agree that the flu shot ought to be more popular next year, and that staying home when sick should be more common.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 7, 2021)

If you stick your head up your butt far enough you might see this thing called an immune system.  It works a heck of a lot better than a mask and a fake vaccine.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 7, 2021)

Perhaps you've noticed that in recent days there's been a hysterical drive to make it appear that hospitalizations among children aged 12 to 17 are on some kind of unique rise (with the not particularly subtle subtext that the vaccination of people in this age group is suddenly very urgent).

I am sure that without even looking into the details, you knew this was nonsense.

We have too much experience with hysterical claims like these not to smell a rat.

And you were right.

One of my friends, who helped design my COVID charts quiz, debunked it. I am sharing the debunking, complete with charts, with you.

Here goes:

"The latest CDC MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) study released today is being used by major media outlets to suggest COVID hospitalizations are rising in 12-17 year old children -- except they aren't. The CDC's own data contradicts this. The CDC cherry-picked dates in their study to push a narrative.

"First, let's look at the time they cut off their study: April 24th. Based on the graph below, you do see increased hospitalization rates in 12-17 year olds from March to April 24th:










Coincidentally, April 24th was also when hospitalizations peaked and declined for these age groups. Why did the CDC end their study right at this point, I wonder?











"'Rising hospitalizations' also misses very important context - hospitalizations were rising in _all_ age groups around this time frame in the spring -- even the most-vaccinated cohort (> 65) -- and at faster rates. Yet they use this study to justify why teen vaccinations are needed."

(TW note: In case you can't see the key in the graph below, the orange line on the top is 65 and over, the blue line is the overall number, and that dashed line at the bottom that barely registers at all is the terrible apocalypse of hospitalizations among the 12-17 age group that is supposed to make their vaccinations urgent.)










"Something in this MMWR study that is worth mentioning, though: almost HALF (172 out of 376) of 'COVID' hospitalizations in this age group were likely there for something other than COVID -- further supporting the claim that child COVID hospitalization numbers are inflated.

"Additionally, of the 172 children admitted to the hospital, but not for COVID, over 44% were there for psychiatric care. This seems like a pretty alarming number, but we'd need to see what the baseline is for psychiatric admissions of adolescents.

"It's becoming increasingly obvious the CDC is not an unbiased, agenda-free scientific organization. Just a month ago it was found they let teachers unions influence school reopening guidance. Their reputation rightfully continues to quickly deteriorate."

Although at this point I expect every word out of these lying liars' mouths to be a lie, even I find myself breathless at the sheer audacity of it all, that they get away with making easily debunked claims time and again, and (for the most part) get away with it.

Bits and pieces of their stupid narrative are starting to fall away, though. Fauci's star was on the rise for a long time. But from his perch there was nowhere to go but down. And that has begun.

After what we've all been through over the past 15 months -- the lies, the fearmongering, the laughable "science," the stupid plexiglass barriers, the worry that maybe an unmasked three-year-old playing soccer is going to kill you -- I want to invite you to a massive celebration, as the country's normal people assemble for the night of fun and socializing and entertainment that heaven knows we've earned.


----------



## N00B (Jun 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> If you stick your head up your butt far enough you might see this thing called an immune system.  It works a heck of a lot better than a mask and a fake vaccine.


The immune system is fabulous.  I’d still rather trick mine to avoid getting sick than ‘rough it’ to avoid getting sick again.


----------



## crush (Jun 8, 2021)

N00B said:


> The immune system is fabulous.  I’d still rather trick mine to avoid getting sick than ‘rough it’ to avoid getting sick again.


I wouldn;t play with fake DNA and GMO bro but it's free so go ahead and get the "trick."  Choice is clear.  I now way 175, down from 218.  Take personal responsibility of your own health.  I will tell you their is no easy trick or easy way to be healthy.  It takes saying, "no" to sugar and fast food.  I eat all my "Vs" everyday.  I eat fruit and nuts too,  No meat at all.  6 pack in now showing some light and I turn 55 in November.


----------



## crush (Jun 8, 2021)

Liberals Melt After Incredible New Rap Video SPEAKS TRUTH
					

"Snowflakes" by rapper Tom MacDonald




					rumble.com


----------



## crush (Jun 8, 2021)

Q me this anyone.......


----------



## texanincali (Jun 8, 2021)

N00B said:


> From my perspective (I know you were asking someone else), no.
> 
> Seatbelts are a requirement, more akin to a mask mandate.  We don’t recommend them, we require them.  Doing so in a state of emergency has been accomplished, but I don’t see that in a non-pandemic situation.
> 
> ...


I agree with what you are saying, but I’m trying to understand the perspective of a person who is very much in favor of masks.

We have been inundated with information during the pandemic, not all of which makes much sense.

Masks aren’t a new thing and in a world where we study and research the behavior and mating tendencies of Uruguayan lizards, surely we should have definitive information on masks. How effective they are or aren’t and what diseases they are effective against should all be well documented.

For me, there can’t be a middle ground.  Either a)masks work against respiratory viruses and the like and our most trusted medical professionals are complicit in watching millions of people unnecessarily die over the years, or b) they don’t work which is the reason they haven’t been mandated or even recommended during flu season.

I can’t accept the answer that we are just now starting to gather and understand the data on a product that has been around since the 1960s.  That just doesn’t make sense to me.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 8, 2021)

texanincali said:


> I agree with what you are saying, but I’m trying to understand the perspective of a person who is very much in favor of masks.
> 
> We have been inundated with information during the pandemic, not all of which makes much sense.
> 
> ...


That is why I think you need to look at at CDC studies over DECADES. They found masks didn't work at stopping the transmission of the flu virus. 

We have seen how the "science" with covid became very political. Suddenly masks work? That is what the politicians say and those funded by those governments. 

That however goes against decades of research saying they don't work. And that work was done when there was nothing political on the line.

Then consider the case of CA vs FL. FL was basically open, had schools open, far looser masks requirements, etc. Using masker logic one would assume you would have seen dramatically more cases/deaths in FL vs CA. You didn't. They were about equal. 

Utah was rather loose on requirements, kept things open. WA and OR were the exact opposite. And yet they have rather similar numbers. 

If masks really worked, we would see vastly different numbers in places with strict mandates vs those with looser ones. 

You don't.


----------



## watfly (Jun 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is why I think you need to look at at CDC studies over DECADES. They found masks didn't work at stopping the transmission of the flu virus.
> 
> We have seen how the "science" with covid became very political. Suddenly masks work? That is what the politicians say and those funded by those governments.
> 
> ...


Wrong again DH.  You can't compare states.  You have to compare county by county.  Those counties that had lower rates had more mask compliance and those that had higher rates had a more aggressive variant.  And Utah?  C'mon now its the alcohol consumption. Duh.  Have you not learned anything over the last 300 pages?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

N00B said:


> The immune system is fabulous.  I’d still rather trick mine to avoid getting sick than ‘rough it’ to avoid getting sick again.


Why would you want to trick your immune system if it is already coded for Corona?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 8, 2021)

watfly said:


> more aggressive variant


Ah the variant. I forgot. 

Kind of like an IPA. Some have more alcohol content and are therefore more "aggressive".


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 8, 2021)

texanincali said:


> I agree with what you are saying, but I’m trying to understand the perspective of a person who is very much in favor of masks.
> 
> We have been inundated with information during the pandemic, not all of which makes much sense.
> 
> ...


There is a middle ground...that they work, but only a little.  Also 2 other notes: we know that flu is spread through fomites as well which may actually make masks less productive, because people have a tendency to touch their face.  And 2, that not all masks are created equal.  So if you are sitting next to someone ill with COVID on an airplane for 7 hours, even that N95 isn't going to protect you (because it is only 95% effective and you are being exposed multiple times over time to infectious events), but if you are seated 10 seats away maybe it helps.  If you are wearing a cloth mask and are presymptomatic (the number and time of truly presymptomatic people is limited but human beings have a tendency to shrug off things like a tickle in the throat or a runny nose as "allergies" at first and to stubbornly refuse to believe they are falling sick) and you need groceries so you go to the market, that cloth mask may prevent you the first time you cough from infecting the lady walking past you, but once the thing gets wet and germs build on it, isn't going to do anything for the poor clerk you just sneezed on while he's packing your bags dislodging the viruses embedded in the cloth.  3rd side note: it's why doctors in a hospital setting change masks multiple times, to keep them dry and fresh....unless there's a shortage they don't reuse.

So if it's possible they help a little, the next question is why were they oversold.  Why did people say "masks are better than vaccines" when clearly from Fauci's emails we know he didn't believe that and there wasn't some shocking revelation in some scientific study that suddenly said they work.  There are a lot of reasons: politicians were desperate to say something work, medical experts were desperate and so said why not since there was very little cost in doing so (at least temporarily, though there is a bit of an environmental reckoning to come), you needed to make those with phobias feel better, they were a good way to signal you were pro-science and pro-virtue.  But the biggest reason in the end comes down to essential workers....they needed to prevent a panic in the essential workers and didn't want to send them out there with nothing that helped....without them the supply chain would have completely collapsed, especially in very dangerous environments like meat packing plants....so they oversold it, to prevent a situation like Contagion from happening (even though this virus was no where near as deadly as Contagion, but (for numerous other reasons) they had already oversold the virus as a killer virus that was going to wipe everyone including children out....what was the last survey....65% of Ds still think we should have lockdown restrictions???)


----------



## watfly (Jun 8, 2021)

N00B said:


> If the data shows it helps protect others from the sick, I would expect masking recommendations to be minimal (there is no justification for requiring heathy individuals to mask) but that other policies would be more effective.  Covid like sick time expansions to avoid employees returning to the office when under the weather for example.
> 
> Either way, I assume that there will be an increase in flu vaccinations and social compliance to staying away from others when not feeling well.


If anything good comes out of this I hope its better awareness of when you are sick that you stay at home.  I think in the past many of us (myself included) treated a cold or flu like symptoms too casually, and in the American spirit we push through and get our work done without giving much thought to the health of our office mates.  Almost like a badge of honor to say "I haven't taken a sick day in 10 years".  We've glorified people in the past that have worked through sickness (ie Michael Jordan).  

Given the ability to work from home for a lot of people, I think we need to do a better job of having people stay home and stay away from work when they are sick.  Yes, some employees will abuse it, but I think we need to be more flexible with sick time from an employer stand point.  It's really your best employees that you're going to have to convince to stay home.  I don't think we need to go overboard, but I think there is a reasonable way to approach it.

Same thing with sending kids to school sick (realizing that's a sticky situation when you have working parents).  Maybe we can also have on-line learning as a backup for kids if they're going to miss a couple days.


----------



## espola (Jun 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There is a middle ground...that they work, but only a little.  Also 2 other notes: we know that flu is spread through fomites as well which may actually make masks less productive, because people have a tendency to touch their face.  And 2, that not all masks are created equal.  So if you are sitting next to someone ill with COVID on an airplane for 7 hours, even that N95 isn't going to protect you (because it is only 95% effective and you are being exposed multiple times over time to infectious events), but if you are seated 10 seats away maybe it helps.  If you are wearing a cloth mask and are presymptomatic (the number and time of truly presymptomatic people is limited but human beings have a tendency to shrug off things like a tickle in the throat or a runny nose as "allergies" at first and to stubbornly refuse to believe they are falling sick) and you need groceries so you go to the market, that cloth mask may prevent you the first time you cough from infecting the lady walking past you, but once the thing gets wet and germs build on it, isn't going to do anything for the poor clerk you just sneezed on while he's packing your bags dislodging the viruses embedded in the cloth.  3rd side note: it's why doctors in a hospital setting change masks multiple times, to keep them dry and fresh....unless there's a shortage they don't reuse.
> 
> So if it's possible they help a little, the next question is why were they oversold.  Why did people say "masks are better than vaccines" when clearly from Fauci's emails we know he didn't believe that and there wasn't some shocking revelation in some scientific study that suddenly said they work.  There are a lot of reasons: politicians were desperate to say something work, medical experts were desperate and so said why not since there was very little cost in doing so (at least temporarily, though there is a bit of an environmental reckoning to come), you needed to make those with phobias feel better, they were a good way to signal you were pro-science and pro-virtue.  But the biggest reason in the end comes down to essential workers....they needed to prevent a panic in the essential workers and didn't want to send them out there with nothing that helped....without them the supply chain would have completely collapsed, especially in very dangerous environments like meat packing plants....so they oversold it, to prevent a situation like Contagion from happening (even though this virus was no where near as deadly as Contagion, but (for numerous other reasons) they had already oversold the virus as a killer virus that was going to wipe everyone including children out....what was the last survey....65% of Ds still think we should have lockdown restrictions???)


You are returning to that "masks are better than vaccines" theme again.  You didn't learn anything the last time around?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 8, 2021)

espola said:


> You are returning to that "masks are better than vaccines" theme again.  You didn't learn anything the last time around?


My point is they were oversold. Which “masks are better than vaccines” was the perfect example of

my favorite pandemic moment remains when kiddos school wanted him to take a covid test for a 1 hour soccer practice when they were wearing masks in the heat and sun outdoors. I threw back in the face of the school safety officer that everyone was masked and the cdc director had just said masks were better than vaccines. It was a super sweet moment.


----------



## crush (Jun 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Why would you want to trick your immune system if it is already coded for Corona?


I was thinking the same thing.  I took control of my immune system almost two years ago and it work's like a charm if you follow the correct way to eat.  Were not supposed to be meat eaters but we are big time.  Plus, so many people I know eat fake meat and fake everything.  Life has become fake & caked with BS and sprinkled with lies!!!


----------



## espola (Jun 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My point is they were oversold. Which “masks are better than vaccines” was the perfect example of
> 
> my favorite pandemic moment remains when kiddos school wanted him to take a covid test for a 1 hour soccer practice when they were wearing masks in the heat and sun outdoors. I threw back in the face of the school safety officer that everyone was masked and the cdc director had just said masks were better than vaccines. It was a super sweet moment.


As has been explained to you before here, the "masks better than vaccines" comment came in a discussion involving a certain quality mask and a certain quality vaccine.  In that circumstance the comment was correct.  As it turns out, the vaccine ix much more effective than had been hypothesized in the discussion, thus tipping the judgment.  Those who took the time to look at the whole context then and now understood what it meant.  Now we are left with just a few who ignore the math and science of the discussion in an attempt to score cheap political points.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

espola said:


> As has been explained to you before here, the "masks better than vaccines" comment came in a discussion involving a certain quality mask and a certain quality vaccine.  In that circumstance the comment was correct.  As it turns out, the vaccine ix much more effective than had been hypothesized in the discussion, thus tipping the judgment.  Those who took the time to look at the whole context then and now understood what it meant.  Now we are left with just a few who ignore the math and science of the discussion in an attempt to score cheap political points.


You're babbling.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

crush said:


> I was thinking the same thing.  I took control of my immune system almost two years ago and it work's like a charm if you follow the correct way to eat.  Were not supposed to be meat eaters but we are big time.  Plus, so many people I know eat fake meat and fake everything.  Life has become fake & caked with BS and sprinkled with lies!!!


See espola's context above.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There is a middle ground...that they work, but only a little.  Also 2 other notes: we know that flu is spread through fomites as well which may actually make masks less productive, because people have a tendency to touch their face.  And 2, that not all masks are created equal.  So if you are sitting next to someone ill with COVID on an airplane for 7 hours, even that N95 isn't going to protect you (because it is only 95% effective and you are being exposed multiple times over time to infectious events), but if you are seated 10 seats away maybe it helps.  If you are wearing a cloth mask and are presymptomatic (the number and time of truly presymptomatic people is limited but human beings have a tendency to shrug off things like a tickle in the throat or a runny nose as "allergies" at first and to stubbornly refuse to believe they are falling sick) and you need groceries so you go to the market, that cloth mask may prevent you the first time you cough from infecting the lady walking past you, but once the thing gets wet and germs build on it, isn't going to do anything for the poor clerk you just sneezed on while he's packing your bags dislodging the viruses embedded in the cloth.  3rd side note: it's why doctors in a hospital setting change masks multiple times, to keep them dry and fresh....unless there's a shortage they don't reuse.
> 
> So if it's possible they help a little, the next question is why were they oversold.  Why did people say "masks are better than vaccines" when clearly from Fauci's emails we know he didn't believe that and there wasn't some shocking revelation in some scientific study that suddenly said they work.  There are a lot of reasons: politicians were desperate to say something work, medical experts were desperate and so said why not since there was very little cost in doing so (at least temporarily, though there is a bit of an environmental reckoning to come), you needed to make those with phobias feel better, they were a good way to signal you were pro-science and pro-virtue.  But the biggest reason in the end comes down to essential workers....they needed to prevent a panic in the essential workers and didn't want to send them out there with nothing that helped....without them the supply chain would have completely collapsed, especially in very dangerous environments like meat packing plants....so they oversold it, to prevent a situation like Contagion from happening (even though this virus was no where near as deadly as Contagion, but (for numerous other reasons) they had already oversold the virus as a killer virus that was going to wipe everyone including children out....what was the last survey....65% of Ds still think we should have lockdown restrictions???)


The evidence is that cloth or surgical masks, on the recipient, help a little.   Cloth or surgical masks, on the source/infected person, help a lot.

But that isn’t the answer you want, so you keep returning to “what if you’re on an airplane”.  It asks the wrong question, as a rhetorical device to get the wrong answer.   

It’s a silly question.  If you are unvaccinated, then you really should not be on an airplane during a respiratory pandemic.  The risk to you and others is too high.

There is no real need to ask “what kind of mask should I wear while riding in the aluminum germ tube?”.  The simpler answer is ”don’t get in the aluminum germ tube if you don’t need to.”

Then you can go back to the right question.  Do cloth or surgical masks reduce transmission from me to others by a meaningful amount?  (10% or more) 

The answer to that question is a clear yes.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 8, 2021)

"A whopping *71 percent of Democrats* in the United States want healthy people to stay home *“as much as possible,”* even as vaccinations soar and new coronavirus infections have plummeted, according to a new survey from Gallup.

In contrast, 87 percent of Republicans surveyed and 64 percent of independents said it was time for people to start living normally after more than a year of pandemic shutdowns and working from home."

Fascinating insight into the mindset of people.


----------



## espola (Jun 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "A whopping *71 percent of Democrats* in the United States want healthy people to stay home *“as much as possible,”* even as vaccinations soar and new coronavirus infections have plummeted, according to a new survey from Gallup.
> 
> In contrast, 87 percent of Republicans surveyed and 64 percent of independents said it was time for people to start living normally after more than a year of pandemic shutdowns and working from home."
> 
> Fascinating insight into the mindset of people.


Into yours at least.


----------



## watfly (Jun 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "A whopping *71 percent of Democrats* in the United States want healthy people to stay home *“as much as possible,”* even as vaccinations soar and new coronavirus infections have plummeted, according to a new survey from Gallup.
> 
> In contrast, 87 percent of Republicans surveyed and 64 percent of independents said it was time for people to start living normally after more than a year of pandemic shutdowns and working from home."
> 
> Fascinating insight into the mindset of people.


Self reliance vs. the government will provide.
I know what's best for me vs.  I know what's best for you

....to name a couple


----------



## dad4 (Jun 8, 2021)

watfly said:


> Self reliance vs. the government will provide.
> I know what's best for me vs.  I know what's best for you
> 
> ....to name a couple


I see it as more "I do what is right for me" versus "we do what is right for us".

Not sure how to bridge that gap, to be sure.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 8, 2021)

espola said:


> As has been explained to you before here, the "masks better than vaccines" comment came in a discussion involving a certain quality mask and a certain quality vaccine.  In that circumstance the comment was correct.  As it turns out, the vaccine ix much more effective than had been hypothesized in the discussion, thus tipping the judgment.  Those who took the time to look at the whole context then and now understood what it meant.  Now we are left with just a few who ignore the math and science of the discussion in an attempt to score cheap political points.


It's not an attempt to score cheap political points.  The statement itself was imprecise and ignored the science.  He didn't say "it's possible that certain masks such as an N95 might even be more effective than some of the vaccines in the pipeline in preventing illness, particularly since those vaccines may come in substantially less than 100% effective."  It was a sales job that masks are so good they are even better than vaccines.  It was an oversell, for the purposes outlined above.


----------



## watfly (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I see it as more "I do what is right for me" versus "we do what is right for us".
> 
> Not sure how to bridge that gap, to be sure.


Best for me:  Return to normal
Best for you: Not get Covid (you, as in others like the aforementioned 71%, I won't claim to speak for you, Dad4)

The brilliant thing about our country is we can accommodate both at the same time.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The evidence is that cloth or surgical masks, on the recipient, help a little.   Cloth or surgical masks, on the source/infected person, help a lot.
> 
> But that isn’t the answer you want, so you keep returning to “what if you’re on an airplane”.  It asks the wrong question, as a rhetorical device to get the wrong answer.
> 
> ...


Keep preaching.  Admire the faith.


----------



## espola (Jun 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's not an attempt to score cheap political points.  The statement itself was imprecise and ignored the science.  He didn't say "it's possible that certain masks such as an N95 might even be more effective than some of the vaccines in the pipeline in preventing illness, particularly since those vaccines may come in substantially less than 100% effective."  It was a sales job that masks are so good they are even better than vaccines.  It was an oversell, for the purposes outlined above.


"I threw back in the face of the school safety officer that everyone was masked and the cdc director had just said masks were better than vaccines. It was a super sweet moment. "

That's a cheap political point.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 8, 2021)

espola said:


> "I threw back in the face of the school safety officer that everyone was masked and the cdc director had just said masks were better than vaccines. It was a super sweet moment. "
> 
> That's a cheap political point.


No it's not.  I couldn't care less about the guys politics.  It won me the argument because he had no rebuttal to it and was totally pinned least he be accused of not following the science.  They did not make kiddo take the COVID test for the 1 hour.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Keep preaching.  Admire the faith.


I see that you are reduced to evidence-free responses, like “keep preaching”.  That’s because you have no respectable articles to point to.

Take a look at the evidence.  









						Face masks: what the data say
					

The science supports that face coverings are saving lives during the coronavirus pandemic, and yet the debate trundles on. How much evidence is enough?




					www.nature.com
				












						An evidence review of face masks against COVID-19
					

The science around the use of masks by the public to impede COVID-19 transmission is advancing rapidly. In this narrative review, we develop an analytical framework to examine mask usage, synthesizing the relevant literature to inform multiple areas: population impact, transmission...




					www.pnas.org
				












						Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2
					

This JAMA Insights CDC review summarizes accumulating evidence that mask wearing reduces spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection and that universal mandatory mask wearing policies reduce infections and deaths and emphasizes face masks are one component of pandemic control measures, including physical...




					jamanetwork.com
				




You’ve been giving people bad medical advice for 15 months now.  You can stop.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I see that you are reduced to evidence-free responses, like “keep preaching”.  That’s because you have no respectable articles to point to.
> 
> Take a look at the evidence.
> 
> ...


weve posted round and round before. Nothings going to shake your faith. But as to medical advice, I’ve pointed out in the past the micro effects are probably greater than the macro effects.  Nothing is going to stop you from getting the virus on that plane even if the 2 of you seated next to each other are wearing n95s. It may stop you from getting it if you are 10 rows back but it’s reduced your low chances already. On a macro level, for all the reasons we’ve gone round and round on, they don’t do much. And in any case given the cdc advice on the vaccinated and masking, aren’t you the one currently giving out advice contra to the established science?  Oh I forgot. It’s not advice...it’s preaching.


----------



## espola (Jun 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No it's not.  I couldn't care less about the guys politics.  It won me the argument because he had no rebuttal to it and was totally pinned least he be accused of not following the science.  They did not make kiddo take the COVID test for the 1 hour.


Please continue.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 8, 2021)

espola said:


> Please continue.


No thanks.  See U trolling again.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The evidence is that cloth or surgical masks, on the recipient, help a little.   Cloth or surgical masks, on the source/infected person, help a lot.
> 
> But that isn’t the answer you want, so you keep returning to “what if you’re on an airplane”.  It asks the wrong question, as a rhetorical device to get the wrong answer.
> 
> ...


You working for OSHA now?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> weve posted round and round before. Nothings going to shake your faith. But as to medical advice, I’ve pointed out in the past the micro effects are probably greater than the macro effects.  Nothing is going to stop you from getting the virus on that plane even if the 2 of you seated next to each other are wearing n95s. It may stop you from getting it if you are 10 rows back but it’s reduced your low chances already. On a macro level, for all the reasons we’ve gone round and round on, they don’t do much. And in any case given the cdc advice on the vaccinated and masking, aren’t you the one currently giving out advice contra to the established science?  Oh I forgot. It’s not advice...it’s preaching.


Airplanes again?  That's because your argument fails anywhere outside the aluminum germ tube.

I disagree with CDC on policy, not science.  CDC and I both claim that all unvaccinated people should mask up.  I just think that, as a matter of policy, there is no way to draw a line between vax and unvax.  The only way to get masks on the unvaccinated is if everyone wear masks.  CDC believes in the honor system.  I don't.

Crush proves my point on this.  Some people will lie about their vax status to get out of wearing masks.  Crush already did exactly that.  Not everyone is honorable.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 8, 2021)

espola said:


> As has been explained to you before here, the "masks better than vaccines" comment came in a discussion involving a certain quality mask and a certain quality vaccine.  In that circumstance the comment was correct.  As it turns out, the vaccine ix much more effective than had been hypothesized in the discussion, thus tipping the judgment.  Those who took the time to look at the whole context then and now understood what it meant.  Now we are left with just a few who ignore the math and science of the discussion in an attempt to score cheap political points.


Masks, as they are in their current form, will never be better than a good vaccine because people wear them.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I see it as more "I do what is right for me" versus "we do what is right for us".
> 
> Not sure how to bridge that gap, to be sure.


Because everybody agrees about what is right for "us"


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not everyone is honorable.


Agree.  You've already proven many times that you are not honorable.


----------



## watfly (Jun 8, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I see that you are reduced to evidence-free responses, like “keep preaching”.  That’s because you have no respectable articles to point to.
> 
> Take a look at the evidence.
> 
> ...


You've been ignoring at least 50 years of virus history.  Shall I retrieve your mask mea culpa?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  They do not come close to eliminating transmission.


Nearly 30 pages later and Dad4 still arguing with himself.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I see that you are reduced to evidence-free responses, like “keep preaching”.  That’s because you have no respectable articles to point to.
> 
> Take a look at the evidence.
> 
> ...



Yahoo needs to explain how, if "lockdown" states are doing better economically than "loose" states, why there are 21 states in the "weak restrictions, strong recovery" quadrant while there are 2 in the "strong restrictions, strong recovery" quadrant...and they barely made the cut


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

Coincidentally, April 24th was also when hospitalizations peaked and declined for these age groups. Why did the CDC end their study right at this point, I wonder?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

"'Rising hospitalizations' also misses very important context - hospitalizations were rising in _all_ age groups around this time frame in the spring -- even the most-vaccinated cohort (> 65) -- and at faster rates. Yet they use this study to justify why teen vaccinations are needed."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

(TW note: In case you can't see the key in the graph below, the orange line on the top is 65 and over, the blue line is the overall number, and that dashed line at the bottom that barely registers at all is the terrible apocalypse of hospitalizations among the 12-17 age group that is supposed to make their vaccinations urgent.)



"Something in this MMWR study that is worth mentioning, though: almost HALF (172 out of 376) of 'COVID' hospitalizations in this age group were likely there for something other than COVID -- further supporting the claim that child COVID hospitalization numbers are inflated.

"Additionally, of the 172 children admitted to the hospital, but not for COVID, over 44% were there for psychiatric care. This seems like a pretty alarming number, but we'd need to see what the baseline is for psychiatric admissions of adolescents.

"It's becoming increasingly obvious the CDC is not an unbiased, agenda-free scientific organization. Just a month ago it was found they let teachers unions influence school reopening guidance. Their reputation rightfully continues to quickly deteriorate."


----------



## dad4 (Jun 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Because everybody agrees about what is right for "us"


Nope.  We can't even agree about questions of fact.

Do masks work?  Is disease growth exponential?  How dangerous is covid?   The answers depend on your political party. 

It makes it very hard to agree on a policy when you can't even agree about where you are.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> (TW note: In case you can't see the key in the graph below, the orange line on the top is 65 and over, the blue line is the overall number, and that dashed line at the bottom that barely registers at all is the terrible apocalypse of hospitalizations among the 12-17 age group that is supposed to make their vaccinations urgent.)
> 
> View attachment 10942
> 
> ...


Speaking of teachers unions..








						L.A. Teachers Union Will Vote On Endorsing “Boycott, Divest, Sanction” Against Israel
					

Will teachers unions' one-sided demonization of Israel stoke anti-Semitism at a time when hate crimes against Jewish students is already at an all-time high?




					www.forbes.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It makes it very hard to agree on a policy when you can't even agree about where you are.


No shit Sherlock!!



dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  They do not come close to eliminating transmission.


----------



## crush (Jun 8, 2021)

@DadEbolaEOTL4 headed avatar, this how I feel sometimes about the mask bro.  However, If you feel I lied to the store clerk about telling him I had my V's, then I want to say sorry to you and to anyone I might have offended.  V's=Veggies.  I eat my veggies every morning and at night.  I love fruit too.  I thought I was super super clear with kicking & screaming and everyone else that I would never allow Bill and his drugs near my DNA.  I will not wear a mask after June 15th.  You have to wear a mask anyways and i always do.  I just tested saying, "I had my V's" and they still told me to get  a mask on.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 8, 2021)

So my folks dropped off kiddo today.  They noted that traffic seemed really worse in LA than pre pandemic.  It's funny but we were having a conversation the other day about it on the way to soccer practice too.  Am I just not remembering how bad traffic was prepandemic?  Or is it worse because people aren't using public transportation and car pools?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So my folks dropped off kiddo today.  They noted that traffic seemed really worse in LA than pre pandemic.  It's funny but we were having a conversation the other day about it on the way to soccer practice too.  Am I just not remembering how bad traffic was prepandemic?  Or is it worse because people aren't using public transportation and car pools?


That ought to set Greta on fire.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So my folks dropped off kiddo today.  They noted that traffic seemed really worse in LA than pre pandemic.  It's funny but we were having a conversation the other day about it on the way to soccer practice too.  Am I just not remembering how bad traffic was prepandemic?  Or is it worse because people aren't using public transportation and car pools?


Look up gasoline sale info.   For CA, it is riding, but still a bit below where it was pre-pandemic. (  4.5 Million gallons per day.  )

Fewer commuters, but fewer carpools.  The effects offset.  Commuters is the bigger effect.

Might actually be above normal this summer if offices open but people still drive kids solo.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nope.  We can't even agree about questions of fact.
> 
> Do masks work?  Is disease growth exponential?  How dangerous is covid?   The answers depend on your political party.
> 
> It makes it very hard to agree on a policy when you can't even agree about where you are.


Even beyond agreement on facts, there are very wide ranges of risk tolerance. The "risk" that I feel is often missed, is the risk associated with unfettered power. History tells us what happens in those situations. It's why I am reluctant to force individuals to do something I think is right - such as get a COVID vaccine.


----------



## crush (Jun 9, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Jun 9, 2021)

TDS and the need to prove orange man bad about everything might very well have turned out to have killed people......









						Observational Study on 255 Mechanically Ventilated Covid Patients at the Beginning of the USA Pandemic
					

Introduction This observational study looked at 255 COVID19 patients who required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) during the first two months of the US pandemic. Through comprehensive, longitudinal evaluation and new consideration of all the data, we were able to better describe and...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## dad4 (Jun 9, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Even beyond agreement on facts, there are very wide ranges of risk tolerance. The "risk" that I feel is often missed, is the risk associated with unfettered power. History tells us what happens in those situations. It's why I am reluctant to force individuals to do something I think is right - such as get a COVID vaccine.


It is easy to overuse the “risk of unfettered power” argument.  Once people started using it to compare cloth masks to the Gestapo, I stopped paying any attention to it.  

There are legitimate overuse of power arguments.  But asking unvaccinated people to avoid high risk locations is not one of them.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It is easy to overuse the “risk of unfettered power” argument.  Once people started using it to compare cloth masks to the Gestapo, I stopped paying any attention to it.
> 
> There are legitimate overuse of power arguments.  But asking unvaccinated people to avoid high risk locations is not one of them.


So what you’re saying, is if you were at risk you should stay quarantined or sheltered from those that are not at risk? Sounds very familiar.


----------



## crush (Jun 9, 2021)

Starting June 15th in California; if all workers are Vaxed, then no one needs to wear a mask at work, yay team!!!!  However, if just one worker ((say someone rebellious like crush or his wife)) says, "no vax" then the whole office has to wear a mask.  Guys like dad and Ebola will blame guys like crush and call them all sorts of names and cause division at the work place.  How does the employer get this HIPPA medical information?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It is easy to overuse the “risk of unfettered power” argument.  Once people started using it to compare cloth masks to the Gestapo, I stopped paying any attention to it.
> 
> There are legitimate overuse of power arguments.  But asking unvaccinated people to avoid high risk locations is not one of them.


It's also easy to slide down the slippery slope of "forcing people to do what is good for them". It's what the Chinese government does. It's what is done in North Korea. Asking is fine. That's different than forcing. Have they even gotten to the point where they are requiring the armed forces to get the vaccine? Unless your end goal is to truly split the country into two, forcing, excluding, and dividing is not a path to take. Don't let fear drive your decisions. Follow the science. If you are vaccinated, you are good.


----------



## watfly (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Do masks work?  Is disease growth exponential?  How dangerous is covid?   The answers depend on your political party.


That's what the media wants you to believe, that its dependent on your political party.  I'm far from convinced of that that is the case.  Most people are far more nuanced than that and most normal people don't wear their political party on their sleeve.   My friends are pretty much split evenly as to the party they vote for.  Even my "liberal" friends were comfortable socializing without mask at our neighborhood outdoor functions during the pandemic.  In my old neighborhood, which is overwhelming liberal, that never happened.  I believe in part, that they were afraid of straying from the narrative and being marginalized for not wearing a mask.  They even wore masks in their Facebook posts.

On the flip side, some of the strictest lock downers I knew were conservative.  This was out of fear unrelated to political affiliation.

Yes, you are going to find some divide between parties, but to me that's more philosophical....self reliance vs. government dependency, than political.  I think were much better off when we make decisions based on common sense rather than political ideology.  Unfortunately, there is a lot of pressure to follow a narrative regardless of party.

I know this is hard to believe for some, but you can wear a mask and still question the effectiveness of masks.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> TDS and the need to prove orange man bad about everything might very well have turned out to have killed people......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Again almost all the coverage of the the Prez was confrontational and took the opposite position of whatever he said. 

HCQ? Crazy talk. Dangerous. 

Lab leak? Crazy talk. Dangerous

Him getting advice from Fauci who thought this would go away? T's fault. Apparently shouldn't listen to what is told to him by experts, and so on.

And so on. 

We would be much better off if we had an actual non partisan press. The next best thing would be for instance is that when you read the NY Times, you UNDERSTAND that you are essentially reading Dem talking points. And the same goes for almost any other news outlet left or right. Understand they are not non partisan. Unfortunately most of our press leans very far to one side of the spectrum.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 9, 2021)

This guy is the guy the NIH and CDC sent to "find out" and report on the Wuhan Lab. He came back with nope...not man made. And the press and everyone else said yep...lab leak is a crazy theory. 









						WATCH: Explosive, Unearthed Video Shows Peter Daszak Describing 'Chinese Colleagues' Developing 'Killer' Coronaviruses.
					

EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak, who collaborated with the Wuhan Institute of Virology on research funded by Dr. Anthony Fauci's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, appeared to describe the manipulation of SARS-like coronaviruses carried out by his "colleagues in...




					thenationalpulse.com
				




And yet here he is talking about this kind of research some years before.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 9, 2021)

Here is an example of someone who should have worn a mask. She caught a new variant of covid. The affects are terrible.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1401365183964999681


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Again almost all the coverage of the the Prez was confrontational and took the opposite position of whatever he said.
> 
> HCQ? Crazy talk. Dangerous.
> 
> ...


Agree. The media is driving the divide and as a country, we are allowing it by believing there's a "side" or a noble cause that is above unbiased, honest reporting. Again, if we thought it was difficult to get everyone moving in the same direction in this country - which it is - the reporting during COVID just made it that much more difficult.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 9, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's also easy to slide down the slippery slope of "forcing people to do what is good for them". It's what the Chinese government does. It's what is done in North Korea. Asking is fine. That's different than forcing. Have they even gotten to the point where they are requiring the armed forces to get the vaccine? Unless your end goal is to truly split the country into two, forcing, excluding, and dividing is not a path to take. Don't let fear drive your decisions. Follow the science. If you are vaccinated, you are good.


That’s exactly what I mean.  You went straight to the totalitarian state argument.

If vaccines are required for my Carnival cruise, then I must be living in one of President Xi’s gulags.

It makes no sense, of course.  It’s about as useful for polite conversation as comparing people to Nazis.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 9, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Agree. The media is driving the divide and as a country, we are allowing it by believing there's a "side" or a noble cause that is above unbiased, honest reporting. Again, if we thought it was difficult to get everyone moving in the same direction in this country - which it is - the reporting during COVID just made it that much more difficult.


To be honest with regard to T it began with their Russian hoax. 

They have done a disservice to this country. They have created divide and disdain. They have a lack of self awareness that is beyond belief. 

The press loves to dive into the problems private industry has and expose flaws, corruptions, etc. Too bad there is nobody that can really turn the spotlight on them and how they work.


----------



## crush (Jun 9, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's also easy to slide down the slippery slope of "forcing people to do what is good for them". It's what the Chinese government does. It's what is done in North Korea. Asking is fine. That's different than forcing. Have they even gotten to the point where they are requiring the armed forces to get the vaccine? Unless your end goal is to truly split the country into two, forcing, excluding, and dividing is not a path to take. Don't let fear drive your decisions. Follow the *science. If you are vaccinated, you are good.*


*So they say. * Let's revisit that statement in 6-12 months.  I'm done talking about the mask and the vax.  Please, go down the rabbit hole about the evil, evil treatment of kids, especially in the foster care system.  Just wait, horrible and evil is understatement.   

Listen to this song and read the lyrics bro.  This is my song 100%.  No more looking the other way or just ignoring the facts about ALL the kids.  I can speak from this arena because I was put in some harry stuff before I was born.    






I was just a little, little tiny baby boy in my mommies tummy and I just wanted to stay alive, I promise.  I dont mean any harm, I just dont feel it was right to be killed before a chance at life in 1966.  Later in my life, I found out I was also being sought after by some crazy ass 33 degree FM looking for a young boy to sacrifice back in 1966, no joke  I wont share anymore about that until later but let's just say I escaped torture and death by some serious evil motherfuckers that drink blood for fun and kill humans for satanic ritual reasons. I survived because a 33 degree dude had a change of heart at the last minute for some reason and called my adopted mom to save me from death. Yes, I had a few attempted kidnaps when I was young but I was able to escape those assholes as well. Ebola thinks I make all this stuff up but I swear I dont. *70,000,000+* precious babies killed before birth and over *25,000,000 *kids and adults right now who have been born into evil in this criminal underground evil world we all live in. WTFUIAICSTAUPOD!!!!


----------



## watfly (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If vaccines are required for my Carnival cruise, then I must be living in one of President Xi’s gulags.


Who is saying that?  Carnival is a non-monopoly, private entity.  They can do as they choose as long as it's not discriminatory, or a violation of HIPAA.   I happen to think its terrible business policy and suspect health policy to require vaccines.   I'm not totally convinced either that the best way to address the issue is for DeSantis to legislate against vaccine passports.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 9, 2021)

"Masking has become a religion, and like most new faiths, it isn’t very well thought-out — or humane."
- 
"There was never any need to wear masks outdoors. Even Dr. Anthony Fauci admits that, yet on every street there are people, often alone, continuing to wear a mask."
- 
"Why do I care if traumatized or virtue-signaling people continue to mask? Because it affects us all. *Decisions are made for all of us, because so many people won’t move on.*"









						Fellow New Yorkers: It’s time to move on — to unmask ourselves and our kids
					

My fellow New Yorkers, you know what we are doing is crazy: Unmask. It’s time. It’s long past the time. What happened to us? How are we entering summer 2021, with many of us still masked, despite a…




					nypost.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'm not totally convinced either that the best way to address the issue is for DeSantis to legislate against vaccine passports.


I like the fact that he has done that along with a couple of other states. 

It puts a brake on the desire of many to put impediments to things I want to do. I like freedom. And as we give it up a little here and there it starts to add up and become the "norm". The norm being why not do this? Etc. etc.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s exactly what I mean.  You went straight to the totalitarian state argument.
> 
> If vaccines are required for my Carnival cruise, then I must be living in one of President Xi’s gulags.
> 
> It makes no sense, of course.  It’s about as useful for polite conversation as comparing people to Nazis.


Blanket mandates by the government are my concern. It's a business decision for cruise lines. I'm not bothered by that. Keeping schools closed because of it would bother me. Extending a state of emergency is overreach.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s exactly what I mean.  You went straight to the totalitarian state argument.


You mean with you being the Beacon of Liberty and Justice for all?


----------



## watfly (Jun 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I like the fact that he has done that along with a couple of other states.
> 
> It puts a brake on the desire of many to put impediments to things I want to do. I like freedom. And as we give it up a little here and there it starts to add up and become the "norm". The norm being why not do this? Etc. etc.


Totally get it and don't necessarily disagree, but I would have preferred negotiation over legislation.  Maybe that was attempted and failed.  This one is just a little more nuanced for me.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> Who is saying that?  Carnival is a non-monopoly, private entity.  They can do as they choose as long as it's not discriminatory, or a violation of HIPAA.   I happen to think its terrible business policy and suspect health policy to require vaccines.   I'm not totally convinced either that the best way to address the issue is for DeSantis to legislate against vaccine passports.


I didn't bring up authoritarian states.  That was K&S.

"It's what the Chinese government does. It's what is done in North Korea. "

  I just pointed out that he was equating vaccine cards with forced labor camps.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I just pointed out that he was equating vaccine cards with forced labor camps.


Liar.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sample size is pretty darn small.  Only 5% of participants were previously infected.
> 
> They were trying to draw conclusions from a sample size of 1220 previously infected but recently vaccinated patients.  It is no surprise that they couldn’t get a significant result.  The study was completely underpowered.
> 
> ...


The above is from another thread he posts in. I find it funny. In the study he references, he says 1220 people is way to small. 

And yet over the past year and a half I have seen him write about studies he likes that have similar numbers of participants. 

So @dad4 you win again. Your back must hurt from moving the goal posts back and forth depending on which argument you want to make and/or refute.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 9, 2021)

By the way as a follow up to the misconduct on the part of the press.

A year ago May,  T went to a church not far from the WH has that been vandalized. Earlier in the day or not long before he went tear gas was used to disperse the crowd. The press went ballistic regarding this. Biden and the D's had a field day with it.

Turns out, neither T nor anyone in the admin had anything to do with this. So another story the press got wrong and had little interest in finding out the actual truth. On the other hand their reporting fired up half the nation. So there is that I guess...mission accomplished on their part.






						Review of U.S. Park Police Actions at Lafayette Park | DOI OIG
					






					www.doioig.gov


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 9, 2021)

Apparently Fauci now believes he and science are equivalent.










						Anthony Fauci Says His Critics Are Attacking Science Itself
					

"A lot of what you're seeing as attacks on me quite frankly are attacks on science."




					reason.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 9, 2021)

The problem when public health lies is that it erodes trust in public health.....









						effective public health is built on trust
					

lying, treating people like idiots, and bullying them is counter-productive




					boriquagato.substack.com


----------



## crush (Jun 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Apparently Fauci now believes he and science are equivalent.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


He is Science, you didn't know that?  I've been dealing with his kind for 40 sum years. This Doc is a whacko and cares about his legacy over the truth.  He lies for a living.  Total loser and now his pal Chuck is giving him cover.


----------



## watfly (Jun 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Apparently Fauci now believes he and science are equivalent.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Actual Science, or Science Du Jour...there's a big difference.  Pretty cool how one person can be the sole arbiter of truth.  Fauci is the new Exhibit A for "How Power Corrupts".  Who let him out of the lab?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Apparently Fauci now believes he and science are equivalent.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think he merely believes that you loons would have made personal attacks against anyone representing the median scientific view.

He is correct in that assessment.

That's not to say the median scientific view was always correct.   But you guys would have attacked the messenger no matter who it was.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think he merely believes that you loons would have made personal attacks against anyone representing the median scientific view.
> 
> He is correct in that assessment.
> 
> That's not to say the median scientific view was always correct.   But you guys would have attacked the messenger no matter who it was.


Nah...it's that you believers in St. Fauci are prepared to believe anything he says.  It's faith, not science.  Science is based on questioning and should invite questioning.  Faith rejects questioning as dangerous.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nah...it's that you believers in St. Fauci are prepared to believe anything he says.  It's faith, not science.  Science is based on questioning and should invite questioning.  Faith rejects questioning as dangerous.


Nonsense.  Science is based on testing of falsifiable hypotheses.

Your style of “questioning“ lacks falsifiability.   It is ‘questioning”, in that you are willing to reject things that others put forward.  But it is not falsifiable.  You have displayed next to no ability to reject a previous belief in the face of new evidence.

Your complaint against Fauci is that he has, for the most part, accurately followed the median scientific view.  Had someone else done the same, you’d be insulting them.


----------



## espola (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nonsense.  Science is based on testing of falsifiable hypotheses.
> 
> Your style of “questioning“ lacks falsifiability.   It is ‘questioning”, in that you are willing to reject things that others put forward.  But it is not falsifiable.  You have displayed next to no ability to reject a previous belief in the face of new evidence.
> 
> Your complaint against Fauci is that he has, for the most part, accurately followed the median scientific view.  Had someone else done the same, you’d be insulting them.


I'm waiting to see what G makes of "falsifiable".


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nonsense.  Science is based on testing of falsifiable hypotheses.
> 
> Your style of “questioning“ lacks falsifiability.   It is ‘questioning”, in that you are willing to reject things that others put forward.  But it is not falsifiable.  You have displayed next to no ability to reject a previous belief in the face of new evidence.
> 
> Your complaint against Fauci is that he has, for the most part, accurately followed the median scientific view.  Had someone else done the same, you’d be insulting them.


A. Love the nonsense. Taking a page from the Espola playbook I see.
b. I have no doubt you would have fawned over and called for deferring to the experts for any idiot in that position
C. If someone else had made the same lies and policy errors yes I would attack it
D. But fauci is uniquely awful in his job particularly the pr aspects
E. The falsifiability point is uniquely nonsensical coming from you, given the real world evidence around you.this is nothing more than religion to you


----------



## crush (Jun 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A. *Love the nonsense. Taking a page from the Espola playbook I see.*
> b. I have no doubt you would have fawned over and called for deferring to the experts for any idiot in that position
> C. If someone else had made the same lies and policy errors yes I would attack it
> D. But fauci is uniquely awful in his job particularly the pr aspects
> E. The falsifiability point is uniquely nonsensical coming from you, given the real world evidence around you.this is nothing more than religion to you


I told you once, twice & three times the charm now.  Dad, EOTL and Espola are one and the same dude.  I like Espola.  I told him three years ago that this would get fixed and I was going to be a voice for reason.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 9, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 9, 2021)

I was at a local store today that also sells medications.  I have a very bad tooth and I went to see the dentist today and he prescribed me some pain meds until surgery on Monday and that is why I went to pharmacy.  I wont share the name of the place but it was insane today.  Hugh push to "get out the shot."  People asking me to sign up again and it's annoying.  It's starting to have that "cult" feel.  Pushing Jim Jones Kool Aid or something like that.  All smiles and happy to offer me free bat virus.  Super duper nice people today, but that kind of nice that makes you wonder in your little brain and ask yourself some basic Qs.  Why are the so-called pros in the needle industry so nice now?  Pros trying to get people signed up for free shots and pushing it hard, why? I was asked to sign up once in the store by some lady randomly walking around in the store.  It was an invasion of my privacy, MOO.  Leave me alone so I can shop.  I dont need to get tempted with free lotto ticket if I take shots.   I told thee nice lady "no thank you."  Even my dentist receptionist was asking me some personal Qs about my health.  I told her I wont answer and she said, "ok, you dont have to." I did get a chance to watch people get their shots live today.  No one fainted or died for taking the shots and no shakes.  The main shot pusher looked so happy, like he was getting a bonus.  He was a big time order taker and moved extremely fast.  No looked scared or afraid as they lined up.  Q.  Does anyone know if they have incentives for the needle pushers like bonuses for sign ups or is it just free stuff and lotto chances for those who inject the bat virus?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nonsense.  Science is based on testing of falsifiable hypotheses.


Which is why you are avoiding the last 50 years of virus history that says you are a liar.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your style of “questioning“ lacks falsifiability.   It is ‘questioning”, in that you are willing to reject things that others put forward.  But it is not falsifiable.  You have displayed next to no ability to reject a previous belief in the face of new evidence.


Which is why you reject the last 50 years of virus history that says you are a liar.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 9, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your complaint against Fauci is that he has, for the most part, accurately followed the median scientific view.  Had someone else done the same, you’d be insulting them.


Anyone who rejects 50 years of virus history and employs mask and PCR test to determine infections should be mocked for their anti-science views.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 9, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm waiting to see what G makes of "falsifiable".


How about start with PCR test. Lol!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A. Love the nonsense. Taking a page from the Espola playbook I see.
> b. I have no doubt you would have fawned over and called for deferring to the experts for any idiot in that position
> C. If someone else had made the same lies and policy errors yes I would attack it
> D. But fauci is uniquely awful in his job particularly the pr aspects
> E. The falsifiability point is uniquely nonsensical coming from you, given the real world evidence around you.this is nothing more than religion to you


Ask Falsepola about percentages.


----------



## crush (Jun 9, 2021)

More bad news for the cheaters.  Water marks will bring to light all the cheating these folks have done.  I spoke to some old pals of mine and they think cheating to get rid of T was "righteous cheating" and the only time someone is allowed to cheat.  Falsepola is just that, false and full of dung.  I told my pal anyone who cheated during the national election is going to get in big trouble because the military was doing a big time sting and this was not the time to cheat.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 10, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm waiting to see what G makes of "falsifiable".


She turned it into a personal attack.  What did you think would happen?

Were you expecting her to review the data, decide her earlier position was in error, and alter her opinion?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Doesn’t mean I can’t mock him for it.   You can tell hound ten times that professional epidemiology researchers have already read the old influenza mask studies, and he still thinks he knows something they missed.   It’s like the guy who yells at the TV telling Neymar how to play ball.  Knows nothing, but thinks he does.


Arrogance is sure tell of ignorance.


----------



## watfly (Jun 10, 2021)

Sorry Dad4 but they are going to allow the honor system.  Good news is businesses can't deny access to someone wearing a mask. 









						Californians vaccinated for COVID-19 can largely shed masks on June 15
					

The long-promised change will take effect Tuesday, the same date as the state's full economic reopening, and bring the state into alignment with the CDC's COVID-19 guidelines.




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not quite clear whether the flu shot will be more accurate.  Hard to hit the target when we have so little data....
> 
> I do agree that the flu shot ought to be more popular next year, and that staying home when sick should be more common.


My previous job of almost 40 years had no such thing as “sick leave”, don’t work don’t get paid. So I didn’t miss much time.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Sorry Dad4 but they are going to allow the honor system.  Good news is businesses can't deny access to someone wearing a mask.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes but employees still will be wearing them per Cal-OSHA.


----------



## watfly (Jun 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yes but employees still will be wearing them per Cal-OSHA.


Doesn't sound like that will be the case.









						Cal/OSHA will propose allowing vaccinated workers to stop wearing masks
					

The California workplace safety board suggested it will move to allow fully vaccinated employees to stop wearing masks while on the job, even around those who are not vaccinated.




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com


----------



## dad4 (Jun 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Sorry Dad4 but they are going to allow the honor system.  Good news is businesses can't deny access to someone wearing a mask.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Honor system?  Then it won’t work.   We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.

In the case of Delta, it’s already here.  About 6% of cases in the US.  For Britain, it took about 5 weeks to go from 6% to being the dominant variant.

So, mid summer, it will be dominant.  By late fall, the seasonality kicks in and we find out which states got their act together and which did not.


----------



## espola (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Honor system?  Then it won’t work.   We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.
> 
> In the case of Delta, it’s already here.  About 6% of cases in the US.  For Britain, it took about 5 weeks to go from 6% to being the dominant variant.
> 
> So, mid summer, it will be dominant.  By late fall, the seasonality kicks in and we find out which states got their act together and which did not.


Since covid has only been recognized for about 18 months now, I'm not convinced that it has a true seasonal component.  Arguments for a seasonal effect include the US peak in January/February and Australia in August, but South Africa's caseload peaked in October and Argentina's numbers just wander all over the place inconclusively.  









						Covid Trends
					

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.




					aatishb.com
				




If the pandemic roars back at us next winter, I caution that it might be with variants that have evolved to survive the current vaccines.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So I didn’t miss much time.


On behalf of those of us on the forum, we wish you would have spent some time learning and expanding your horizons. 

You are kind of like the bubble boy. You live in a very small world intellectually. Anything you encounter outside your bubble seems to frighten you.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Honor system? Then it won’t work. We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.


Sorry big guy. 

We just are not going to have the type of authoritarian system that mandates all the things you dream of.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Since covid has only been recognized for about 18 months now, I'm not convinced that it has a true seasonal component.  Arguments for a seasonal effect include the US peak in January/February and Australia in August, but South Africa's caseload peaked in October and Argentina's numbers just wander all over the place inconclusively.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I wonder whether Delta is partly responsible for the slight uptick in cases in San Jose.  We have a 78% vax rate for adults, and 30% previously infected.  That should mean about 80% immunity, but cases are not dropping.  Stuck at about 30 per day.

Makes a ton of sense if the dominant variant in town just changed.  It’s the same pattern as we saw when the UK variant came in.  We think we are done, open it all up, higher transmission variant comes in, and you get a new bump in cases.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Honor system?  Then it won’t work.   We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.
> 
> In the case of Delta, it’s already here.  About 6% of cases in the US.  For Britain, it took about 5 weeks to go from 6% to being the dominant variant.
> 
> So, mid summer, it will be dominant.  By late fall, the seasonality kicks in and we find out which states got their act together and which did not.


By the way, we see that covid has variants. Many have sprung up. 

With your mindset, you will continually want restrictions and masks. Why? Because based on past history we kind of know that covid will spawn variants in the future. 

Your solution it seems is to live in fear, keep wearing masks, keep certain restrictions in place because in the future SOME variant might be troublesome. 

That is no way to live your life son.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> She turned it into a personal attack.  What did you think would happen?
> 
> Were you expecting her to review the data, decide her earlier position was in error, and alter her opinion?


That's hilarious coming from one who has been dropping the personal attacks recently.  The more your faith is challenged, the more bitter you get.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I wonder whether Delta is partly responsible for the slight uptick in cases in San Jose.  We have a 78% vax rate for adults, and 30% previously infected.  That should mean about 80% immunity, but cases are not dropping.  Stuck at about 30 per day.
> 
> Makes a ton of sense if the dominant variant in town just changed.  It’s the same pattern as we saw when the UK variant came in.  We think we are done, open it all up, higher transmission variant comes in, and you get a new bump in cases.


How many cases of the actual flu were reported daily?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Sorry Dad4 but they are going to allow the honor system.  Good news is businesses can't deny access to someone wearing a mask.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm just happy I won't have to remember my mask anymore. That was a much bigger problem for me than wearing it.


----------



## watfly (Jun 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> My previous job of almost 40 years had no such thing as “sick leave”, don’t work don’t get paid. So I didn’t miss much time.


Your union really dropped the ball.   

Like I said before employers need to be a little more flexible with sick time on a go forward basis.  I believe that it will benefit both employee and employer in the long run.


----------



## watfly (Jun 10, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'm just happy I won't have to remember my mask anymore. That was a much bigger problem for me than wearing it.


You mean the panicked scramble when you're in front of the store, usually a unplanned mini market stop, and your rummaging through your car trying to find a mask.  Sometimes finding a janky old mask that god knows who wore, and you're like F' it, I really need that can of Starbucks Doubleshot.

Why was it so hard for us to remember a mask even after a year?  It must be some subconscious thing.


----------



## watfly (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Honor system?  Then it won’t work.   We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.
> 
> In the case of Delta, it’s already here.  About 6% of cases in the US.  For Britain, it took about 5 weeks to go from 6% to being the dominant variant.
> 
> So, mid summer, it will be dominant.  By late fall, the seasonality kicks in and we find out which states got their act together and which did not.


Are you aware of any states that aren't using the honor system?  It seems that every state is either using the honor system to some extent or eliminating the mask requirement altogether.   Verification of vaccine status seems to be only required in some states for very specific situations.

If you are unhappy with Newsom's honor system you have the opportunity to tell him how you feel in the recall election this Fall.


----------



## espola (Jun 10, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I'm just happy I won't have to remember my mask anymore. That was a much bigger problem for me than wearing it.


I spent the last few months remembering my mask when I was halfway from my car to the store and had to go back to get it.  On the last trip out, I remembered my mask when I left the car, but I forgot my cellphone and had to go back to get it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 10, 2021)

"Over and over we see the central truth: the corporate outlets that most loudly and shrilly denounce “disinformation” — *to the point of demanding online censorship and de-platforming in the name of combating it — are, in fact, the ones who spread disinformation most frequently and destructively. *It is hard to count how many times they have spread major fake stories in the Trump years. For that reason, they have nobody but themselves to blame for the utter collapse in trust and faith on the part of the public, which has rightfully concluded they cannot and should not be believed."









						Yet Another Media Tale -- Trump Tear-Gassed Protesters For a Church Photo Op -- Collapses
					

That the White House violently cleared Lafayette Park at Trump's behest was treated as unquestioned truth by most corporate media. Today it was revealed as a falsehood.




					greenwald.substack.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Honor system?  Then it won’t work.   We will remain vulnerable to whatever high transmission variant comes in on the next airplane.
> 
> In the case of Delta, it’s already here.  About 6% of cases in the US.  For Britain, it took about 5 weeks to go from 6% to being the dominant variant.
> 
> So, mid summer, it will be dominant.  By late fall, the seasonality kicks in and we find out which states got their act together and which did not.


Gong.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 10, 2021)

espola said:


> If the pandemic roars back at us next winter, I caution that it might be with variants that have evolved to survive the current vaccines.


Shocking!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 10, 2021)

espola said:


> If the pandemic roars back at us next winter, I caution that it might be with variants that have evolved to survive the current vaccines.


More like a mee-oww with a 99 percent survival rate.  Unless you're suggesting that the current vaccines are pathogenic primers.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 10, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> How many cases of the actual flu were reported daily?


Why do you believe this is relevant?

I believe that Delta is relevant because our vaccination rate is not high enough to prevent another 10-20% of people getting sick with covid this winter.  Works out to another 100K deaths or so.  Fewer if vax rates rise or masks become common again.

Do you have a similar concern with the flu?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why do you believe this is relevant?
> 
> I believe that Delta is relevant because our vaccination rate is not high enough to prevent another 10-20% of people getting sick with covid this winter.  Works out to another 100K deaths or so.  Fewer if vax rates rise or masks become common again.
> 
> Do you have a similar concern with the flu?


So at another 100k deaths or so...that puts us slightly higher than the flu in a bad year. 

Totally fine with that. We don't blink an eye with those rates with the flu. We just deal with it and move on. 

Same thing here. Right?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why do you believe this is relevant?
> 
> I believe that Delta is relevant because our vaccination rate is not high enough to prevent another 10-20% of people getting sick with covid this winter.  Works out to another 100K deaths or so.  Fewer if vax rates rise or masks become common again.
> 
> Do you have a similar concern with the flu?


Even assuming your Max No of 20% and a Max IFR for non vaccinated across the gen population of .4% (which you yourself said was falling due to treatments and seems to actually be between .1-.2%), that 100K number is the worst case ceiling because vaccination 65+ is running substantially higher than the rest of the population.  IIRC the last number I saw for 65+ was close to 80%.  It's probably closer to 60,000-80,000 which would be in line with the seasonal flu.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why do you believe this is relevant?


Because you think PCR test are relevant.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Are you aware of any states that aren't using the honor system?  It seems that every state is either using the honor system to some extent or eliminating the mask requirement altogether.   Verification of vaccine status seems to be only required in some states for very specific situations.
> 
> If you are unhappy with Newsom's honor system you have the opportunity to tell him how you feel in the recall election this Fall.


Newsom is essentially being recalled for doing his job.  

Count me, and 57% of likely voters, as a no on your recall.


----------



## watfly (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Newsom is essentially being recalled for doing his job.
> 
> Count me, and 57% of likely voters, as a no on your recall.


Never signed the recall petition, but I will happily vote for someone else.  I can't forgive give him for siding with the unions over our children.  I'm not a single issue voter but what he did was inexcusable.

Is he not doing his job now since he is allowing the honor system?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Newsom is essentially being recalled for doing his job.
> 
> Count me, and 57% of likely voters, as a no on your recall.


He’s getting recall because he did his job so poorly.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Even assuming your Max No of 20% and a Max IFR for non vaccinated across the gen population of .4% (which you yourself said was falling due to treatments and seems to actually be between .1-.2%), that 100K number is the worst case ceiling because vaccination 65+ is running substantially higher than the rest of the population.  IIRC the last number I saw for 65+ was close to 80%.  It's probably closer to 60,000-80,000 which would be in line with the seasonal flu.


Not going to quibble over 60-80K versus 100K.   Either way, a substantial number of people are at risk.  

The assumptions you listed actually give an estimate of 264K.  (0.4% IFR and 20% new infections.)  I am not that pessimistic.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not going to quibble over 60-80K versus 100K.   Either way, a substantial number of people are at risk.
> 
> The assumptions you listed actually give an estimate of 264K.  (0.4% IFR and 20% new infections.)  I am not that pessimistic.


Math error: .4% worst case is the IFR in the general population prevaccination.  You have to discount by population because the most vulnerable have a higher IFR, but there are much fewer of them vulnerable because vaccination has been skewing older. Refusals are highest in the under 40 brackets, for which the IFR is very small.  You can back envelope it better than I can but that puts your worst case, edge of the bell curve scenario somewhere in the 100K-120K range.

Which brings the numbers in the range of seasonal flu.  If you think 60-80K is a substantial risk, the knock on you really is true...the numbers are the same as flu (and what's worse is they brought it on themselves, since unlike the flu vaccine, we know the rona vaccine works really well)....you must go into a panic every bad flu season.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Newsom is essentially being recalled for doing his job.
> 
> Count me, and 57% of likely voters, as a no on your recall.


-Weren't you critical in the end of his school closures?
-What about youth sports.....you got so desperate at one point you were going to an out of state tournie?
-You approve of the French laundry?
-How about the outdoor dining stuff...you yourself conceded that might have driven people indoors?
-How about the outdoor mask stuff....or are you still holding out that an outdoor mask mandate is useful?
-How about the outdoor shutting of beaches and trail hikes....oh yeah I hear you the "science evolved".....but remember he tried to shut  down playgrounds while fudging around with the ski slopes.

Now you can say and argue with a straight face that he did his job better on the whole than his errors.  But to say that "Newsom is essentially being recalled for doing his job" is very much the stretch.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Newsom is essentially being recalled for doing his job.
> 
> Count me, and 57% of likely voters, as a no on your recall.


You're nearly as dishonorable as Gav.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why do you believe this is relevant?


Why is it relevant? 

Because if the press kept running totals of the flu deaths day by day, county by county, etc you would have had people freaking out long ago. 

So you and others are now always looking, always worried about the next variant. I suspect strongly you don't even think about the flu other than to remind yourself to get a yearly shot.

The reality is outside a small segment of our population, covid is a non issue.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> -Weren't you critical in the end of his school closures?
> -What about youth sports.....you got so desperate at one point you were going to an out of state tournie?
> -You approve of the French laundry?
> -How about the outdoor dining stuff...you yourself conceded that might have driven people indoors?
> ...


Don’t forget about the $1 billion dollar mask deal with a Chinese CAR MANUFACTURER (that also happens to be a major campaign donor).


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Don’t forget about the $1 billion dollar mask deal with a Chinese CAR MANUFACTURER (that also happens to be a major campaign donor).


I thought about putting it on the list....but he'd just say Newsom was being bold in mask procurement.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I thought about putting it on the list....but he'd just say Newsom was being bold in mask procurement.


Nah. He would just tell you he is too busy counting how many Newsoms fit on the head of a needle.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> -Weren't you critical in the end of his school closures?
> -What about youth sports.....you got so desperate at one point you were going to an out of state tournie?
> -You approve of the French laundry?
> -How about the outdoor dining stuff...you yourself conceded that might have driven people indoors?
> ...


So give me an alternative who actually wanted to do something to control the virus.  Send me a link to their 2020 press release describing what they thought we should do at the time.

But, if the main GOP position is that we should not have tried to control the virus, count me as not interested.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So give me an alternative who actually wanted to do something to control the virus.  Send me a link to their 2020 press release describing what they thought we should do at the time.
> 
> But, if the main GOP position is that we should not have tried to control the virus, count me as not interested.


You are perfectly capable of saying you prefer Newsom to any of the alternatives.  It is further reasonable to say that Newsom did a better job than any of the alternatives would have. It's further reasonable to say that on the whole he did a descent job as far as you are concerned, even if you did disagree with a lot of it, and therefore he doesn't deserve removal.  But what you cannot do is say the only thing he was doing was just his job, since you yourself have been critical of the way he's handled it.  You can't have it both ways: either the attempt to moderate your positions has been wrong, or Newsom's handling of the rona was far from perfect.


----------



## watfly (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So give me an alternative who actually wanted to do something to control the virus.  Send me a link to their 2020 press release describing what they thought we should do at the time.
> 
> But, if the main GOP position is that we should not have tried to control the virus, count me as not interested.


Your starting with a flawed premise that you can "control" a virus.  Actual historical evidence clearly shows that you can't (please spare me the cherry picking and parsing of minutiae that "proves" you can).  You can only attempt to mitigate the impacts of the virus.   So if a candidate can implement common sense mitigation measures and will choose our children over the unions, then they will get my vote.  Now it's not likely that a Democrat fits this description since they're beholden to the unions.   Unfortunately, I'm not very enamored with Cox or Faulkner.  Faulkner made a lot of mistakes in San Diego....and Cox, WTF is up with the bear?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You are perfectly capable of saying you prefer Newsom to any of the alternatives.  It is further reasonable to say that Newsom did a better job than any of the alternatives would have. It's further reasonable to say that on the whole he did a descent job as far as you are concerned, even if you did disagree with a lot of it, and therefore he doesn't deserve removal.  But what you cannot do is say the only thing he was doing was just his job, since you yourself have been critical of the way he's handled it.  You can't have it both ways: either the attempt to moderate your positions has been wrong, or Newsom's handling of the rona was far from perfect.


I can completely say he is being criticized for doing his job.  It is what you are doing.  Newsom tried to close restaurants and make us all wear masks, and you are mad at him for it.

It’s roughly what I think when I hear loudmouth parents yelling at the ref.  Occasionally, the ref makes a mistake.  But most of the time, the parent’s complaint is that the ref did the job he was asked to do.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can completely say he is being criticized for doing his job.  It is what you are doing.  Newsom tried to close restaurants and make us all wear masks, and you are mad at him for it.
> 
> It’s roughly what I think when I hear loudmouth parents yelling at the ref.  Occasionally, the ref makes a mistake.  But most of the time, the parent’s complaint is that the ref did the job he was asked to do.


The issue is in this case you are one of the loud mouth parents.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

IIRC they did a similar thing with jiggling dates for their mask study.....









						Opinion | The Pandemic’s Toll on Teen Mental Health
					

The CDC tried to spark a panic about Covid hospitalizations while ignoring the real crisis.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So give me an alternative who actually wanted to do something to control the virus.  Send me a link to their 2020 press release describing what they thought we should do at the time.
> 
> But, if the main GOP position is that we should not have tried to control the virus, count me as not interested.


If you were interested in virus control you wouldn't be basing your hysteria on Corona DNA segments via the PCR test.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can completely say he is being criticized for doing his job.  It is what you are doing.  Newsom tried to close restaurants and make us all wear masks, and you are mad at him for it.
> 
> It’s roughly what I think when I hear loudmouth parents yelling at the ref.  Occasionally, the ref makes a mistake.  But most of the time, the parent’s complaint is that the ref did the job he was asked to do.


Loud mouth parents are typically the ones watching their first born play.  Reminds me of your hysteria.  It's obvious this was your first pandemic.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> Doesn't sound like that will be the case.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


“Propose”? My union rep said we are stuck wearing them for the time being, I hope he’s wrong.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Newsom is essentially being recalled for doing his job.
> 
> Count me, and 57% of likely voters, as a no on your recall.


Rightwing cancel culture.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 10, 2021)

watfly said:


> You mean the panicked scramble when you're in front of the store, usually a unplanned mini market stop, and your rummaging through your car trying to find a mask.  Sometimes finding a janky old mask that god knows who wore, and you're like F' it, I really need that can of Starbucks Doubleshot.
> 
> Why was it so hard for us to remember a mask even after a year?  It must be some subconscious thing.


Yeah, multiple times on some days. Keys, wallet, phone is challenging enough.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 10, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Propose”? My union rep said we are stuck wearing them for the time being, I hope he’s wrong.


So much for the Science of the last 50 years...at least.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not going to quibble over 60-80K versus 100K.   Either way, a substantial number of people are at risk.
> 
> The assumptions you listed actually give an estimate of 264K.  (0.4% IFR and 20% new infections.)  I am not that pessimistic.


Historically, protecting people who say, "I got this" is not a very American thing to do. You heard Crush. He's got his V's. He's fit. People that aren't should probably get a vaccine. I hear there are so many available they may have to throw them away. In the meantime, life goes on. All the handwringing and consorting with the head troll of misanthropy isn't doing you any good.

Oh, I found your candidate, @dad4. There are NO cases in his country. Seems like your kind of guy. Might be tough to convince him to leave his current gig, though. jk.









						Kim Jong Un says there are no COVID cases in North Korea, hopes Pyongyang Can "hold hands again" with Seoul
					

Kim gave a speech during festivities marking the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

The celebrity millennium allowed only vaccinated crew and passengers. First all vax North America cruise. 2 passengers, asymptomatic, have tested positive despite being fully vaxxed. Doing both doesn’t work....either you vaccine passport the cruises (in which case you don’t worry about it...they are either a small number of breakthrough cases or it’s another issue with overly sensitive testing where exposure does not necessary equal ill) or you test them.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

There is an rsv mini epidemic building in the southern states from Texas to Virginia. Probably due to the littlest ones having more outside contact now as it’s a very common disease in toddlers and young children.  Every year though it kills 100-200 children and 15,000 adults mostly over 65. Guess it’s time to go into lockdown.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There is an rsv mini epidemic building in the southern states from Texas to Virginia. Probably due to the littlest ones having more outside contact now as it’s a very common disease in toddlers and young children.  Every year though it kills 100-200 children and 15,000 adults mostly over 65. Guess it’s time to go into lockdown.


Oh here’s a side note. In bad years the death toll for rsv can rise to up to 500 children.  The experts are worried this might be such a year because kids build resistance by being exposed early and often...now they may be exposed as older toddlers and children due to the year long day potentially causing more severe cases.  The hospitalization rate btw for children is about 15,000 every year.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The celebrity millennium allowed only vaccinated crew and passengers. First all vax North America cruise. 2 passengers, asymptomatic, have tested positive despite being fully vaxxed. Doing both doesn’t work....either you vaccine passport the cruises (in which case you don’t worry about it...they are either a small number of breakthrough cases or it’s another issue with overly sensitive testing where exposure does not necessary equal ill) or you test them.


Doing both doesn’t work?  Why not?

Your example seems to be a case of doing both.  They ran an asymptomtic screening on some vaccinated passengers. 

 Two of them had covid, but no symptoms.  This is not too surprising if you remember just how many passengers are on these ships.  It is 2 asymptomatic cases out of 2,000.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The celebrity millennium allowed only vaccinated crew and passengers. First all vax North America cruise. 2 passengers, asymptomatic, have tested positive despite being fully vaxxed. Doing both doesn’t work....either you vaccine passport the cruises (in which case you don’t worry about it...they are either a small number of breakthrough cases or it’s another issue with overly sensitive testing where exposure does not necessary equal ill) or you test them.


The CM maximum capacity is over 2000 passengers and over 900 crew.  Do we know how many were on board?


----------



## crush (Jun 11, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Historically, protecting people who say, "I got this" is not a very American thing to do. You heard Crush. He's got his V's. He's fit. People that aren't should probably get a vaccine. I hear there are so many available they may have to throw them away. In the meantime, life goes on. All the handwringing and consorting with the head troll of misanthropy isn't doing you any good.
> 
> Oh, I found your candidate, @dad4. There are NO cases in his country. Seems like your kind of guy. Might be tough to convince him to leave his current gig, though. jk.
> 
> ...


Thanks bro, I really really really do appreciate the common sense friendship we have built.  I love you man


----------



## crush (Jun 11, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 11, 2021)




----------



## Mad Hatter (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Doing both doesn’t work? Why not?


I like to check back in every now and then. 

The sun still rises and you still have your little authoritarian streak. 

Despite all the real world facts coming in, you still cling to your need to have rules/regs that don't work. Now you are on to vaccine passports?

And you are still wearing a mask? What is wrong with you? You have the vax.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Doing both doesn’t work?  Why not?
> 
> Your example seems to be a case of doing both.  They ran an asymptomtic screening on some vaccinated passengers.
> 
> Two of them had covid, but no symptoms.  This is not too surprising if you remember just how many passengers are on these ships.  It is 2 asymptomatic cases out of 2,000.


Because either you trust the vaccine or you don’t. These 2 may not even be contagious (we aren’t even fully sure if truly asymptomatic as opposed to presymptomatic can spread the virus and how readily) but now they and their contacts are going to be quarantined on ship where everyone is vaccinated. Of course on a ship of 2000 this is going to happen. If it happens a few times people will begin to think maybe it’s just not the right time to go on a cruise yet.


----------



## crush (Jun 11, 2021)

Mad Hatter said:


> *I like to check back in every now and then.*
> 
> The sun still rises and you still have your little authoritarian streak.
> 
> ...




Welcome back to the Madness brother Mad Hatter.  It's obvious what this is all about now.  I will put the Elephant in the room for all to see.  It's called "obey me because I like bossing people around boss."  "Don't you question me either, I am science and whatever I say you need to do.  Don't you dare question my authority either."  I know a few who love this kind of power.  I spoke to a dear liberal pal of mine last night.  Dude is woke now and see's now what I've been trying to say to him for last 20 years or so.  This is not a right vs left, Lib or Conservative, Black vs White, and so on.  This is about one thing.  Good vs Evil.  BTW, he took his family to church last week for the first time ever.  Good men who have been depressed or lost & confused in the matrix are now awakening to the BS and lies and now see the truth unlike any other time.  I see the hope and rainbow


----------



## crush (Jun 11, 2021)




----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 11, 2021)

Mad Hatter said:


> I like to check back in every now and then.
> 
> The sun still rises and you still have your little authoritarian streak.
> 
> ...


I take it you're not in Santa Clara County California. We are required to wear a mask inside public buildings and places of business unless we are eating or doing shots of tequila - until next Wednesday. Then it's fewer places.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Two of them had covid, but no symptoms.


Had - as in sometime in the past - or have a currently active case that could spread to others? Can they determine that from the test?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 11, 2021)

crush said:


> Thanks bro, I really really really do appreciate the common sense friendship we have built.  I love you man


We have more than enough of a lot of things between people, but I'm sure there's not enough love, understanding, and acceptance, Crush.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> *Because either you trust the vaccine or you don’t.* These 2 may not even be contagious (we aren’t even fully sure if truly asymptomatic as opposed to presymptomatic can spread the virus and how readily) but now they and their contacts are going to be quarantined on ship where everyone is vaccinated. Of course on a ship of 2000 this is going to happen. If it happens a few times people will begin to think maybe it’s just not the right time to go on a cruise yet.


You are using a false dichotomy.  Trust is not boolean.

I trust the vaccine to do what they tested it to do: be 95% effective at preventing serious illness.
I do not trust the vaccine to completely block transmission in a very high risk environment like a cruise ship.   

So, do I trust the vaccine or not?  

There is nothing logically inconsistent with using both vaccines and tests.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Had - as in sometime in the past - or have a currently active case that could spread to others? Can they determine that from the test?


I don’t think they can tell if someone is contagious, or how contagious they are.  I suppose you could try to measure something like number of viral particles shed per minute of speech.  Sounds more like research work than a clinical test, though.

Even then, I think you’d find that the 2 infected passengers were shedding a small amount of virus.  Not enough to ring alarm bells.  But enough that you don’t want them to be in a closed environment with 2000 other people, either.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

Mad Hatter said:


> I like to check back in every now and then.
> 
> The sun still rises and you still have your little authoritarian streak.
> 
> ...


To be honest, the last year has reminded me how much I like the outdoors.  I tend not to mask up much because I spend so much time outside in the wind.  

I’ll still mask up inside, but that’s the law here.  It’s part of why Santa Clara County has less than half as many deaths per capita as Arizona.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are using a false dichotomy.  Trust is not boolean.
> 
> I trust the vaccine to do what they tested it to do: be 95% effective at preventing serious illness.
> I do not trust the vaccine to completely block transmission in a very high risk environment like a cruise ship.
> ...


For a cruise there is. If they are that unsafe you need to do both may as well not have cruises because otherwise you are asking people who have been vaccinated to pay all that cash for a potential vacation locked in their cabins for a week


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> There is nothing logically inconsistent with using both vaccines and tests.


Except the PCR does not test for current presence of the corona virus.  You may have corona genetic sequences in your boogers.  But the PCR won't tell you how long you've had those sequences in your system.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’ll still mask up inside, but that’s the law here. It’s part of why Santa Clara County has less than half as many deaths per capita as Arizona.


This is where your religion and math fails you. 

We have a different population. 

Cal has 97k cases per million
AZ has 121k cases per million. 

It is not a WOW kind of difference. 

Deaths do not move fully with cases either. 

CT which has essentially the same cases per million as CA has 2400 deaths per million vs CAs 1600. And then CO who has essentially the same cases per million as CA but instead has 1180 deaths per million.

So it is not like CA has done a fantastic job of stopping the spread vs AZ. 
Similar states to AZ case wise? UTAH has more cases per mil but deaths per mil of around 750. Wisconsin about the same cases but 1300 or so deaths per million. 

And so on and so on.

I hate to break it to you, but CA didn't do anything special in terms of stopping the spread of the virus. They did however FAIL in the education of kids and college age people, failed to help biz, failed to help employees of those businesses they shuttered, etc. 

It was a pointless attempt on the part of CA. Real world data shows you all may as well have had in person classes, etc.


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

Cruise ships? I'm not sure there are many things more unappealing then being stuck on a floating hotel with 2,000+ other people.  I know people swear by them, but my idea of a vacation is getting away from other people.  If I did go on a cruise, I'd worry way more about getting the norovirus than I would the coronavirus.


----------



## N00B (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I thought about putting it on the list....but he'd just say Newsom was being bold in mask procurement.


Incompetence at the EDD should be on the list.


----------



## N00B (Jun 11, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Propose”? My union rep said we are stuck wearing them for the time being, I hope he’s wrong.


Your supposed ‘no sick time’ for 40 yrs Union Rep is right.

CA is open for the vaccinated, just not in the workplace.


----------



## crush (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> Cruise ships? I'm not sure there are many things more unappealing then being stuck on a floating hotel with 2,000+ other people.  I know people swear by them, but my idea of a vacation is getting away from other people.  If I did go on a cruise, I'd worry way more about getting the norovirus than I would the coronavirus.


We took that 3 night 4 day carnival cruise with the kids 10 years ago.  I took a pink pill the first night and just sleeped instead of puking.  The food was great.  The kids had a blast and I will never do a cruise again, vaxxed or not vaxxed.  Can you imagine dad 4 types masking everyone around and just being a complete maskhole?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 11, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Except the PCR does not test for current presence of the corona virus.  You may have corona genetic sequences in your boogers.  But the PCR won't tell you how long you've had those sequences in your system.


And if the corona genetic sequences are detected via PCR we know that there is a near 100% chance that you'll make it.  If you even present with symptoms at all!!  The Scamdemic that Dad$ keeps puttin' the paddles to was DOA.  The Faucian's are a bunch of cowards.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Mad Hatter said:


> I like to check back in every now and then.
> 
> The sun still rises and you still have your little authoritarian streak.
> 
> ...


I don't get where all the emotion comes from about vaccine passports.  Am I the only one old enough to remember the yellow vaccine cards that were required for entry (or even visa applications) to much of the world?  Aren't kids still required to show proof of up-to-date immunizations in order to attend public schools?  





__





						School & Childcare Requirements for Immunizations :: Public Health ::  Contra Costa Health Services
					

Find out what vaccines are recommended for you and your family.




					cchealth.org


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’ll still mask up inside, but that’s the law here.


Quick point of order, it’s not a “law” it’s a mandate.  There is a difference.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 11, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Quick point of order, it’s not a “law” it’s a mandate.  There is a difference.


Wait for it....


----------



## crush (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't get where all the emotion comes from about vaccine passports.  Am I the only one old enough to remember the yellow vaccine cards that were required for entry (or even visa applications) to much of the world?  Aren't kids still required to show proof of up-to-date immunizations in order to attend public schools?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Coo Coo Magoo


----------



## crush (Jun 11, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Quick point of order, it’s not a “law” it’s a mandate.  There is a difference.


I told a lady that yesterday and she said, ""well sir, rules and mandates were made to follow and are for your own safety and my staffs safety.  She is keeping mask requirement even after June 15th.  Next week will be interesting yo say the least.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't get where all the emotion comes from about vaccine passports.  Am I the only one old enough to remember the yellow vaccine cards that were required for entry (or even visa applications) to much of the world?  Aren't kids still required to show proof of up-to-date immunizations in order to attend public schools?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Were they PCR testing back then?


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For a cruise there is. If they are that unsafe you need to do both may as well not have cruises because otherwise you are asking people who have been vaccinated to pay all that cash for a potential vacation locked in their cabins for a week


Another way to look at this is that the cruise lines assure all their fellow cruisers have been vaccinated and any that show positive tests will be kept away from the others, thus avoiding the cruise-ship virtual prisons we saw early last year.  Does that positive outweigh the negative of potentially being locked for a few days?  The answer is for every customer to answer on his own.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 11, 2021)

crush said:


> I told a lady that yesterday and she said, ""well sir, rules and mandates were made to follow and are for your own safety and my staffs safety.  She is keeping mask requirement even after June 15th.  Next week will be interesting yo say the least.


If it's her place of business, shouldn't that be her right to do so?


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't get where all the emotion comes from about vaccine passports.  Am I the only one old enough to remember the yellow vaccine cards that were required for entry (or even visa applications) to much of the world?  Aren't kids still required to show proof of up-to-date immunizations in order to attend public schools?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Apples and oranges, but you know that.

If a private business wants to see my vaccine card, I have the choice whether to give them my business.  I suspect if its a concert I really wanted to go to I would gladly show my vaccine card.   In other cases, I'm probably taking my business elsewhere.

We will not require our customers to show a vaccine card, because its none of our f'ing business.   This is decision that took less than a couple seconds to make.

There is this dangerous trend of the "infantilization" of adults (this is particularly distasteful when its done to minorities).  IMO, requiring vaccine cards instead of using the honor system is an example of this.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Another way to look at this is that the cruise lines assure all their fellow cruisers have been vaccinated and any that show positive tests will be kept away from the others, thus avoiding the cruise-ship virtual prisons we saw early last year.  Does that positive outweigh the negative of potentially being locked for a few days?  The answer is for every customer to answer on his own.


People being people.....such people who don't trust the vaccine and want their fellow travellers quarantined if they test positive will be happy until they find they were at the dinner table with said people and now have to wait 3 days locked in their cabins until they can be tested.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> Apples and oranges, but you know that.
> 
> If a private business wants to see my vaccine card, I have the choice whether to give them my business.  I suspect if its a concert I really wanted to go to I would gladly show my vaccine card.   In other cases, I'm probably taking my business elsewhere.
> 
> ...


Now who do you suppose would take unfair advantage of your "honor system"?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> Cruise ships? I'm not sure there are many things more unappealing then being stuck on a floating hotel with 2,000+ other people.  I know people swear by them, but my idea of a vacation is getting away from other people.  If I did go on a cruise, I'd worry way more about getting the norovirus than I would the coronavirus.


I have zero interest in cruises either. I don't like set type schedules and like to be very flexible when traveling. 

For years when my wife and I went to other countries we would not even book hotels. We would land and then figure out where we were staying. Made for some interesting adventures. 

Over time as I would go back to the various countries again and again I knew the places I liked, etc and now normally book in advance. Also as I get older I have less patience. 

But being on a cruise and being subject to...OK you have 8 hours on shore, be back by this time, etc is VERY unappealing to me.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> People being people.....such people who don't trust the vaccine and want their fellow travellers quarantined if they test positive will be happy until they find they were at the dinner table with said people and now have to wait 3 days locked in their cabins until they can be tested.


Why would they be waiting three days to be tested?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> We will not require our customers to show a vaccine card, because its none of our f'ing business. This is decision that took less than a couple seconds to make.
> 
> There is this dangerous trend of the "infantilization" of adults (this is particularly distasteful when its done to minorities). IMO, requiring vaccine cards instead of using the honor system is an example of this.


Another factor to consider as well. Our medical info is private. There are federal laws that protect that privacy. 

We can't suddenly say it is OK for private biz to look at our medical info.


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Now who do you suppose would take unfair advantage of your "honor system"?


People that are prone to lying, cheating and stealing in their other affairs, which is independent of political affiliation if that's what you're insinuating.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Another factor to consider as well. Our medical info is private. There are federal laws that protect that privacy.
> 
> We can't suddenly say it is OK for private biz to look at our medical info.


They won't be looking unless you volunteer to give it to them.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For a cruise there is. If they are that unsafe you need to do both may as well not have cruises because otherwise you are asking people who have been vaccinated to pay all that cash for a potential vacation locked in their cabins for a week


Locked in cabins?  Says who?

I can easily imagine a cruise with vaccinated passengers who all got tested before boarding.   

You're still stuck in a boolean model.  The world is not always zero or one.  Usually, it is in between.  Take some stats.  Embrace the probability distribution.  Learn the difference between p= 10^-3 and p=10^-6.   

Just don't go Bayesian with it.  They call you racist if you go Bayesian.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Another factor to consider as well. Our medical info is private. There are federal laws that protect that privacy.
> 
> We can't suddenly say it is OK for private biz to look at our medical info.


Private biz already does look at your medical information.   Have you ever purchased life insurance?

You can refuse to tell them your medical information.  And they can refuse to insure you at that price.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> People that are prone to lying, cheating and stealing in their other affairs, which is independent of political affiliation if that's what you're insinuating.


I wasn't insinuating any political connection.  I agree with your "lying, cheating, and stealing" characterization.


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Another factor to consider as well. Our medical info is private. There are federal laws that protect that privacy.
> 
> We can't suddenly say it is OK for private biz to look at our medical info.


Conceptually yes.  And I believe that adult vaccination status should be private.  However, the legal consensus seems to be that a business can ask an employee or customer their vaccination status and not violate HIPAA.  However, to ask them why they aren't vaccinated would be a violation....based upon what I've read, which may, or may not be correct.

IMO, its in incredibly poor taste for an employer to ask someone's vaccination status.  I also think its terrible business decision, both short term and long term.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Private biz already does look at your medical information. Have you ever purchased life insurance?


That is a very poor example. You are asking a company to insure you based on your health.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Just don't go Bayesian with it.  They call you racist if you go Bayesian.


I don't get the connection.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Private biz already does look at your medical information.   Have you ever purchased life insurance?
> 
> You can refuse to tell them your medical information.  And they can refuse to insure you at that price.


When I was 23 and in the Navy they just signed me up without even asking any health questions.  When I was near 50, they made me fill out a health history questionnaire and sent a nurse to the house to check my vitals and draw some blood (and I was accepted).


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Private biz already does look at your medical information.   Have you ever purchased life insurance?
> 
> You can refuse to tell them your medical information.  And they can refuse to insure you at that price.


This post says it ALL…..give up people.  It’s useless!


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> Conceptually yes.  And I believe that adult vaccination status should be private.  However, the legal consensus seems to be that a business can ask an employee or customer their vaccination status and not violate HIPAA.  However, to ask them why they aren't vaccinated would be a violation....based upon what I've read, which may, or may not be correct.
> 
> IMO, its in incredibly poor taste for an employer to ask someone's vaccination status.  I also think its terrible business decision, both short term and long term.


"Poor taste"?  

"I see dead people" -- (sorry, I couldn't find a 10-second video clip of that)


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are using a false dichotomy.  Trust is not boolean.
> 
> I trust the vaccine to do what they tested it to do: be 95% effective at preventing serious illness.
> I do not trust the vaccine to completely block transmission in a very high risk environment like a cruise ship.
> ...


“Do you still beat your wife?”


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't get where all the emotion comes from about vaccine passports.  Am I the only one old enough to remember the yellow vaccine cards that were required for entry (or even visa applications) to much of the world?  Aren't kids still required to show proof of up-to-date immunizations in order to attend public schools?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They are conditioned to react that way. Like with other code words and phrases they can’t explain they just know how they are supposed to react in their world. Ask one about critical race theory and behold the nonsense.


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> "Poor taste"?
> 
> "I see dead people" -- (sorry, I couldn't find a 10-second video clip of that)


Maybe poor taste is the wrong word.  Let me just put it to you this way.  I don't what to start my customer relationship with "Can I see your vaccine card?"  Your immediately questioning the trust you have in that individual.

It's a virus with very low risk.  For the 100th time if you're uncomfortable with that risk, stay home.  Catering to the lowest common denominator gets us nowhere.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Why would they be waiting three days to be tested?


Because you can't test them right away after exposure because they may develop symptoms later.  I actually think technically the wait period is still 7 days but am not sure.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't get the connection.


Bayesian statistics provides the logical basis for stereotyping.   

It lets you take one direction of data (percent of group X with behavior Y) and flip it.  (probability that specific act Y was the result of something from group X)

It’s completely mathematically valid.  If you apply it to an assembly line, it tells you that the widget from group X might be defective, and need to be replaced.

No problem so far.  Now replace the word “assembly line” with “neighborhood” and “widget” with “person”.   Ugly.  Who wants to live in that kind of world?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Locked in cabins?  Says who?
> 
> I can easily imagine a cruise with vaccinated passengers who all got tested before boarding.
> 
> ...


They did test everyone before boarding.  Yet 2 people during the cruise came out positive.  Not sure why.  I think it may be because they rapid tested people before boarding and then tested them on board afterwards.  It's very confusing, but the way they did it at least clearly didn't work because now not only the couple but several others have to quarantine on a completely vaccinated ship.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> They are conditioned to react that way. Like with other code words and phrases they can’t explain they just know how they are supposed to react in their world. Ask one about critical race theory and behold the nonsense.


Speaking of which, this showed up on my FB feed today --




__ https://www.facebook.com/Stonekettle/posts/4117117584990280


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> Maybe poor taste is the wrong word.  Let me just put it to you this way.  I don't what to start my customer relationship with "Can I see your vaccine card?"  Your immediately questioning the trust you have in that individual.
> 
> It's a virus with very low risk.  For the 100th time if you're uncomfortable with that risk, stay home.  Catering to the lowest common denominator gets us nowhere.


And, for the 100th time, me staying home doesn’t help.  It has nothing to do with my personal risk.  

What I want is the overall case load to keep dropping and eventually stay near zero.   Having the masked, vaccinated crowd stay home does not help achieve that goal.

My objection is to the unmasked, unvaccinated crowd acting as vaccine incubators, and continually raising the risk for everyone else.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And, for the 100th time, me staying home doesn’t help.  It has nothing to do with my personal risk.
> 
> What I want is the overall case load to keep dropping and eventually stay near zero.   Having the masked, vaccinated crowd stay home does not help achieve that goal.
> 
> My objection is to the unmasked, unvaccinated crowd acting as vaccine incubators, and continually raising the risk for everyone else.


It may never be zero (at least not for years). We can’t even get polio to zero and have had periodic measles outbreaks (despite having a very good vaccine against a very stable virus).  As I mentioned before rsv kills hundreds of children and thousands of elderly each year and we don’t go into a panic over rsv shutting down the day cares to prevent the elderly from dying...if anything we encourage kids to get it early so their immune systems become primed against it since complications tend to occur in infants and more grown children. And we know the coronavirus is mutating...life tends to find a way...and the delta variant is pretty close to breaking through...a few more years of this we will eventually get a cases (but not necessarily deaths) breakthrough.  And we suspect if they did do enhancements to the virus that it may be primed to do exactly that: adapt to humans until it achieved an ultimate outcome (which for viruses means survival And replication....not necessarily killing the hosts)


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> People being people.....such people who don't trust the vaccine and want their fellow travellers quarantined if they test positive will be happy until they find they were at the dinner table with said people and now have to wait 3 days locked in their cabins until they can be tested.


I have looked, but I can't find any evidence that other people on the ship were locked in their cabins for three days, or any time at all, for that matter.  Where did you get this?


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It has nothing to do with my personal risk.


Did you actually say that with a straight face?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And, for the 100th time, me staying home doesn’t help.  It has nothing to do with my personal risk.
> 
> What I want is the overall case load to keep dropping and eventually stay near zero.   Having the masked, vaccinated crowd stay home does not help achieve that goal.
> 
> My objection is to the unmasked, unvaccinated crowd acting as vaccine incubators, and continually raising the risk for everyone else.


Also genuinely curious....assume it doesn't go away anytime soon....where do you think is the acceptable level before life completely returns to normal: a bad flu season (which is where at current vaccination levels and current variants we are currently at), an average flu season, an RSV epidemic, the common cold (which kills thousands of elderly every year), adenovirus outbreak (man my entire family came down with that one when the kids were in day care....2 days into a family reunion trip to Hawaii....almost everyone in the family including uncles and aunts came down with it....digestive problems, fever, conjunctivitis, ear infections...fortunately at the time there weren't any severely elderly in our family and there are only a handful of children in the family [which interestingly none but mine came down with it]), measles, never?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I have looked, but I can't find any evidence that other people on the ship were locked in their cabins for three days, or any time at all, for that matter.  Where did you get this?


The news just broke last night.  The AP said they were contact tracing and appropriate steps would be taken to isolate those exposed.  I've been waiting for the update but haven't found exactly what they decided to do yet (who, if any one, they will isolate and how long)...seems like this took them by surprise and are still waiting to hear re guidance from authorities and the cruise line.  There's a reporter from the Times on the cruise live tweeting on it, but she has nothing on it yet.

It's all very strange.  Why not, if you are going to insist on both, have them present a test within 48 hours before boarding and rapid test them when they get on....why was there testing done at the boarding site, when you know a positive result could come back 24 hours later.   Or did the couple get tested on ship for some reason?  Odd.  The reporting isn't clear.

Oh but the positive couple have been definitely put in an isolation cabin according to the Times reporter from this am.  She doesn't say for how long.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Also genuinely curious....assume it doesn't go away anytime soon....where do you think is the acceptable level before life completely returns to normal: a bad flu season (which is where at current vaccination levels and current variants we are currently at), an average flu season, an RSV epidemic, the common cold (which kills thousands of elderly every year), adenovirus outbreak (man my entire family came down with that one when the kids were in day care....2 days into a family reunion trip to Hawaii....almost everyone in the family including uncles and aunts came down with it....digestive problems, fever, conjunctivitis, ear infections...fortunately at the time there weren't any severely elderly in our family and there are only a handful of children in the family [which interestingly none but mine came down with it]), measles, never?


p.s. my parents also never came down with it...we believe probably because they were exposed to the adenovirus when younger, since they both worked in hospital, including military hospital, settings for so long.  But the rest of us middle agers, including the pediatrician....man oh man that was awful.


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh but the positive couple have been definitely put in an isolation cabin according to the Times reporter from this am.  She doesn't say for how long.


What? Wait?  They only quarantined the infected people?  How does that work?  Is this some new technique?  Why wouldn't they quarantine the healthy people?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It may never be zero (at least not for years). We can’t even get polio to zero and have had periodic measles outbreaks (despite having a very good vaccine against a very stable virus).  As I mentioned before rsv kills hundreds of children and thousands of elderly each year and we don’t go into a panic over rsv shutting down the day cares to prevent the elderly from dying...if anything we encourage kids to get it early so their immune systems become primed against it since complications tend to occur in infants and more grown children. And we know the coronavirus is mutating...life tends to find a way...and the delta variant is pretty close to breaking through...a few more years of this we will eventually get a cases (but not necessarily deaths) breakthrough.  And we suspect if they did do enhancements to the virus that it may be primed to do exactly that: adapt to humans until it achieved an ultimate outcome (which for viruses means survival And replication....not necessarily killing the hosts)


Polio?  So far, most of team virus seems more concerned with helping ‘rona than with helping polio.

If we ever get a subgroup of people who refuse the polio vaccine and insist on dumping raw sewage into the bay near oyster fisheries, I will object to that, too.

Perhaps hound will step up to defend their “freedom”.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Bayesian statistics provides the logical basis for stereotyping.
> 
> It lets you take one direction of data (percent of group X with behavior Y) and flip it.  (probability that specific act Y was the result of something from group X)
> 
> ...


Bayesian analysis may show you the likelihood of failure of widgets from assembly line X, but it won't show you which ones will fail.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Polio?  So far, most of team virus seems more concerned with helping ‘rona than with helping polio.
> 
> If we ever get a subgroup of people who refuse the polio vaccine and insist on dumping raw sewage into the bay near oyster fisheries, I will object to that, too.
> ...becaus
> Perhaps hound will step up to defend their “freedom”.


We do get a subgroup that refuses the polio vaccine.  It's how we got the California measles outbreak a few years back...because of parents refusing the vaccines for their kids....so you are going with ducking the uncomfortable question you don't want to think about?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> What? Wait?  They only quarantined the infected people?  How does that work?  Is this some new technique?  Why wouldn't they quarantine the healthy people?


The new technique is called contact tracing with mandatory testing.

Contact tracing a boat is easier than contact tracing a city.  And, as part of their ticket purchase, the passengers agree to be tested.  No test, no ticket.

If you want to give up enough freedom to allow real contact tracing in your city, complete with mandatory testing, then cities can do this, too.  Think Seoul.

If you don’t like the idea of mandatory contact tracing with mandatory testing, then maybe this idea isn’t for you.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> What? Wait?  They only quarantined the infected people?  How does that work?  Is this some new technique?  Why wouldn't they quarantine the healthy people?


They have been vaccinated, they show no symptoms, and they have not been pinged by a test.  

While doing G's homework for her, I found more than one news article that stated that the reason passengers were tested at all is that it was required by the cruise's final destination island/country.  There are so many different versions of the story out there that it is hard to know what the true details are.


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Polio?  So far, most of team virus seems more concerned with helping ‘rona than with helping polio.


My bad, we will ask our customers for proof of their polio vaccines, along with MMR etc.  We're going to be real sticklers for the HPV vaccine.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They did test everyone before boarding.  Yet 2 people during the cruise came out positive.  Not sure why.  I think it may be because they rapid tested people before boarding and then tested them on board afterwards.  It's very confusing, but the way they did it at least clearly didn't work because now not only the couple but several others have to quarantine on a completely vaccinated ship.


They only tested those who could not show a vaccine card, according to the news articles you didn't read.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

watfly said:


> My bad, we will ask our customers for proof of their polio vaccines, along with MMR etc.  We're going to be real sticklers for HPV vaccine.


I would bet most international travel does require the MMR shot.  You would not want a measles or rubella outbreak onboard a cruise ship.

They absolutely would require it if the US had 10,000 rubella cases per day.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> They have been vaccinated, they show no symptoms, and they have not been pinged by a test.
> 
> While doing G's homework for her, I found more than one news article that stated that the reason passengers were tested at all is that it was required by the cruise's final destination island/country.  There are so many different versions of the story out there that it is hard to know what the true details are.


i have less time (and interest) than you to read through umpteen different articles on the subject (I am doing like 4 things simultaneously right now)....but I agree the reporting has been confusing and required testing for a destination would make sense for why this weird situation (where the passengers were tested before boarding) would pop up.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> They only tested those who could not show a vaccine card, according to the news articles you didn't read.


that's even more funny then.  The fully vaxxed cruise was on the honors system.    That is good info....no wonder the cruise company isn't advertising that little fact on their fully vaxxed cruise.  Actual useful info for a change from the espola.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Ask one about critical race theory and behold the nonsense.


The nonsense is the crap they peddle in critical race theory. If you like the idea of creating division where there wasn't any before, the CRT is for you. But then again you just regurgitate what you are spoon fed.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We do get a subgroup that refuses the polio vaccine.  It's how we got the California measles outbreak a few years back...because of parents refusing the vaccines for their kids....so you are going with ducking the uncomfortable question you don't want to think about?


I guess the answer to this is yes.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> that's even more funny then.  The fully vaxxed cruise was on the honors system.    That is good info....no wonder the cruise company isn't advertising that little fact on their fully vaxxed cruise.  Actual useful info for a change from the espola.


I didn't find any evidence of "honor system".  What is your source for that?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I would bet most international travel does require the MMR shot.


Wrong. I have been in the travel industry for decades. Sent thousands abroad every year.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The nonsense is the crap they peddle in critical race theory. If you like the idea of creating division where there wasn't any before, the CRT is for you. But then again you just regurgitate what you are spoon fed.


Can you be more specific in your criticism of critical race theory? What specific "nonsense" or "crap" have you found?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't find any evidence of "honor system".  What is your source for that?


I thought you said they tested anyone who could not show a vaccine card....so people were allowed on the ship without proof of vaccination, right?  Or is there some other proof of vaccination of which I'm not aware?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Can you be more specific in your criticism of critical race theory? What specific "nonsense" or "crap" have you found?


If you are so inclined go educate yourself about it. But based on your inquiry I already know what side you stand on.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I thought you said they tested anyone who could not show a vaccine card....so people were allowed on the ship without proof of vaccination, right?  Or is there some other proof of vaccination of which I'm not aware?


They didn't conduct the tests.  They required a negative test result within 72 hours instead of a vaccine card.

That shows up in almost every news time I found.  

If you insist on being ignorant, there is only so far I am willing to go to help you.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> If you are so inclined go educate yourself about it. But based on your inquiry I already know what side you stand on.


In the absence of your providing any material results, I don't know how you can "know" that.


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Can you be more specific in your criticism of critical race theory? What specific "nonsense" or "crap" have you found?


Just the "theory" part.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> They didn't conduct the tests.  They required a negative test result within 72 hours instead of a vaccine card.
> 
> That shows up in almost every news time I found.
> 
> If you insist on being ignorant, there is only so far I am willing to go to help you.


That should read "allowed a negative test result within 72 hours in lieu of a vaccine card".  My edit time ran out before I could correct it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

Not bad news. Just bacon


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369733584760676352


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> In the absence of your providing any material results, I don't know how you can "know" that.


Kind of like you asking...hey can you provide proof the sun is hot? And I tell you step outside or google it. And then you respond well since you didn't provide the info I could have looked up...it all seems fishy or something. 

Try looking up stuff. You do this song and dance all the time.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The news just broke last night.  The AP said they were contact tracing and appropriate steps would be taken to isolate those exposed.  I've been waiting for the update but haven't found exactly what they decided to do yet (who, if any one, they will isolate and how long)...seems like this took them by surprise and are still waiting to hear re guidance from authorities and the cruise line.  There's a reporter from the Times on the cruise live tweeting on it, but she has nothing on it yet.
> 
> It's all very strange.  Why not, if you are going to insist on both, have them present a test within 48 hours before boarding and rapid test them when they get on....why was there testing done at the boarding site, when you know a positive result could come back 24 hours later.   Or did the couple get tested on ship for some reason?  Odd.  The reporting isn't clear.
> 
> Oh but the positive couple have been definitely put in an isolation cabin according to the Times reporter from this am.  She doesn't say for how long.


The oddest thing is that this appears to have taken them by surprise. There weren't that many possible outcomes to consider.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Polio?  So far, most of team virus seems more concerned with helping ‘rona than with helping polio.
> 
> If we ever get a subgroup of people who refuse the polio vaccine and insist on dumping raw sewage into the bay near oyster fisheries, I will object to that, too.
> 
> Perhaps hound will step up to defend their “freedom”.


In pup’s case it’s spelled “FREEDUMB!”


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> They didn't conduct the tests.  They required a negative test result within 72 hours instead of a vaccine card.
> 
> That shows up in almost every news time I found.
> 
> If you insist on being ignorant, there is only so far I am willing to go to help you.


So again they advertised this as a fully vaxxed cruise. But if you didn’t Provide a card you had to get tested. So If true it’s the honors system...you just had to say you were vaxxed but could get tested in the alternate.  So it could turn out even in the end this couple lied about being fully vaxxed???

jeez way to get lost and crash again Magoo.


----------



## watfly (Jun 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Not bad news. Just bacon
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369733584760676352


I heard today that the cost of bacon is up 13%.  Sorry about the bad news.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Kind of like you asking...hey can you provide proof the sun is hot? And I tell you step outside or google it. And then you respond well since you didn't provide the info I could have looked up...it all seems fishy or something.
> 
> Try looking up stuff. You do this song and dance all the time.


You don't have to look anything up.  Just tell us what you know about it.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So again they advertised this as a fully vaxxed cruise. But if you didn’t Provide a card you had to get tested. So If true it’s the honors system...you just had to say you were vaxxed but could get tested in the alternate.  So it could turn out even in the end this couple lied about being fully vaxxed???
> 
> jeez way to get lost and crash again Magoo.


Where did you get "just had to say" from?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> You don't have to look anything up.  Just tell us what you know about it.


Why don't you start with the original poster who likes it then? See what he likes about it?


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Why don't you start with the original poster who likes it then? See what he likes about it?


Do you mean "behold the nonsense."  followed by your response "The nonsense is the crap they peddle in critical race theory"

I'll ask again -- what is that nonsense and crap?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Where did you get "just had to say" from?


They ship has been advertised as a "fully vaxxed" cruise.  Apparently, though, now they are updating the reports that there were some unvaxxed children.  It's beginning to look like despite being advertised as a "fully vaxxed" cruise it really isn't, no Magoo?  This article seems to indicate, BTW, that it is an "and"...both proof of vaccination and testing.  This article seems to indicate it is part of the end of cruise testing, and not a requirement for a particular port.  A lot of confused reporting going around about this.









						Two passengers test positive for COVID on Celebrity Millennium 'fully vaccinated' cruise
					

Two passengers on the Celebrity Millennium ship carrying vaccinated passengers and crew and some unvaccinated children have tested positive for COVID.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

Well the Admin isn't going to force federal workers to be vaccinated. So that is good.

“At present, COVID-19 vaccination should generally not be a pre-condition for employees or contractors at executive departments and agencies (agencies) to work in-person in Federal buildings, on Federal lands, and in other settings as required by their job duties.”










						Biden Admin Says COVID-19 Vaccine Shouldn’t Be Mandatory For Federal Employees
					

The Biden Administration said the coronavirus vaccine should not be mandatory for federal employees to return to in-person work.




					dailycaller.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Do you mean "behold the nonsense."  followed by your response "The nonsense is the crap they peddle in critical race theory"
> 
> I'll ask again -- what is that nonsense and crap?


Since you rarely have your own opinion on anything lets start with what you like about it. Make your case. We can go from there.

If you don't like something you usually just say hey I read this and that is why you are wrong. And it goes back and forth from there. 

Why don't you actually for once make a post where you make a case for something. Try something new. Don't give me what you think the definition is. Make a case for why you seem to like it.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They ship has been advertised as a "fully vaxxed" cruise.  Apparently, though, now they are updating the reports that there were some unvaxxed children.  It's beginning to look like despite being advertised as a "fully vaxxed" cruise it really isn't, no Magoo?  This article seems to indicate, BTW, that it is an "and"...both proof of vaccination and testing.  This article seems to indicate it is part of the end of cruise testing, and not a requirement for a particular port.  A lot of confused reporting going around about this.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That doesn't answer the "just had to say" question.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Do you mean "behold the nonsense."  followed by your response "The nonsense is the crap they peddle in critical race theory"
> 
> I'll ask again -- what is that nonsense and crap?


Start with Kendi's claim that anyone who disagrees with his notion of anti-racism is automatically a racist.

Is that nonsensical enough for you?   Anyone who disagrees with Kendi is, by definition, a racist?


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Since you rarely have your own opinion on anything lets start with what you like about it. Make your case. We can go from there.
> 
> If you don't like something you usually just say hey I read this and that is why you are wrong. And it goes back and forth from there.
> 
> Why don't you actually for once make a post where you make a case for something. Try something new. Don't give me what you think the definition is. Make a case for why you seem to like it.


So you believe it is nonsense and crap but you don't know why?  Is it because of what someone you trust told you?


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Start with Kendi's claim that anyone who disagrees with his notion of anti-racism is automatically a racist.
> 
> Is that nonsensical enough for you?   Anyone who disagrees with Kendi is, by definition, a racist?


Kendi's claim is nonsensical?  Or that people believe he said that is non-sensical?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> That doesn't answer the "just had to say" question.


Crash!  Knew it was just a matter of time before you did.  Get the glasses.  They'll help man.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Crash!  Knew it was just a matter of time before you did.  Get the glasses.  They'll help man.


"required to show proof" is pretty much the opposite of "just had to say".


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> "required to show proof" is pretty much the opposite of "just had to say".


Dumb dumb: you said "they only tested those who could not show a vaccine card".  A. That doesn't seem right under the USA article which said everyone was required to show proof of testing (regardless of whether vaccinated or not), but B. if true, if this is a vaccinated only cruise and they are allowing people on board without proof of vaccination (because the vaccination card is the proof), that means you just had to lie and tell them you were vaccinated (but still had to take the test).

You've now not only crashed through the barn door but have run over the chickens.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Kendi's claim is nonsensical?  Or that people believe he said that is non-sensical?


It was his claim.  I heard it from him directly during his NPR interview on KQED.

The nonsensical part is that anyone pays any attention to him. 

The whole anti-[something]ism thing is itself a problem.  

Recently, we have anti-fascism and anti-racism.  They both work on the same principle as McCarthy's anti-communism:

Declare yourself to be against something bad.  Then accuse others of that thing you are against.   Ruin their careers if possible.  If anyone tries to stop you, accuse them of whatever it is you oppose.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Dumb dumb: you said "they only tested those who could not show a vaccine card".  A. That doesn't seem right under the USA article which said everyone was required to show proof of testing (regardless of whether vaccinated or not), but B. if true, if this is a vaccinated only cruise and they are allowing people on board without proof of vaccination (because the vaccination card is the proof), that means you just had to lie and tell them you were vaccinated (but still had to take the test).
> 
> You've now not only crashed through the barn door but have run over the chickens.


Followed by "according to the news articles you didn't read".


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Followed by "according to the news articles you didn't read".


Into the horses now too, huh?

I'm taking you at your word that it said that dude.  I'm not going to sit around and read every single article.  I posted one that said that's not true...they tested everyone whether vaccinated or not.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> So you believe it is nonsense and crap but you don't know why?  Is it because of what someone you trust told you?


Coocoo


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It was his claim.  I heard it from him directly during his NPR interview on KQED.
> 
> The nonsensical part is that anyone pays any attention to him.
> 
> ...


Some of Joe McCarthy's targets actually were communists working in the State Department, but when he sad "I have here in my hand a list of two hundred and five people that were known to the Secretary of State as being members of the Communist Party and who nevertheless are still working and shaping the policy of the State Department", he was lying.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Coocoo


I couldn't agree more.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Into the horses now too, huh?
> 
> I'm taking you at your word that it said that dude.  I'm not going to sit around and read every single article.  I posted one that said that's not true...they tested everyone whether vaccinated or not.


Have you found any yet that mentioned an honor system, or "just had to say"?


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> that's even more funny then.  The fully vaxxed cruise was on the honors system.    That is good info....no wonder the cruise company isn't advertising that little fact on their fully vaxxed cruise.  Actual useful info for a change from the espola.


How is showing a card the honors system?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> How is showing a card the honors system?


Man you are so far off the road now. You were the one who said they tested those without vaccine cards. I said they required both.


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Here is Celebrity's health requirements page - it's all over the map (which was not intended as a joke when I first wrote it).  Note the Florida entry -- _"For sailings from Florida – Guests who decline or are unable to show proof of vaccination at boarding will be treated as unvaccinated and subject to additional costs, restrictions, and protocols to be advised as soon as they have been determined."_





__





						Loading…
					





					www.celebritycruises.com


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Man you are so far off the road now. You were the one who said they tested those without vaccine cards. I said they required both.


Which one of us said "honor system"?


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Man you are so far off the road now. You were the one who said they tested those without vaccine cards. I said they required both.


As I said then, and have repeated more than once, I was quoting online news articles.  There was (and still is) a wide variety of opinions about what the vaccination requirements were, what the testing requirements were, when the tests were conducted, etc.  USAToday's article today includes a correction notice at the top, so they have acknowledged that the facts are still churning.

None of the articles I read had any mention of any "honor system" (which, frankly would have been hard to believe for anywhere but the Florida boardings) so where did you get that from?


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> Some of Joe McCarthy's targets actually were communists working in the State Department, but when he sad "I have here in my hand a list of two hundred and five people that were known to the Secretary of State as being members of the Communist Party and who nevertheless are still working and shaping the policy of the State Department", he was lying.


So lying..like you do. Good to know Magoo, good to know. Or are you more like the JV captain and just forget stuff all the time? Hmmm..


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> As I said then, and have repeated more than once, I was quoting online news articles.  There was (and still is) a wide variety of opinions about what the vaccination requirements were, what the testing requirements were, when the tests were conducted, etc.  USAToday's article today includes a correction notice at the top, so they have acknowledged that the facts are still churning.
> 
> None of the articles I read had any mention of any "honor system" (which, frankly would have been hard to believe for anywhere but the Florida boardings) so where did you get that from?


Well, if all you require is them to state that they are vaccinated (and not require any proof such as a vaccine card, which is the only proof of which I'm currently aware), then it is the honors systems idiot (because you are trusting people not to lie about it, and the COVID test does not tell you if people are vaccinated or not...it only tells you about exposure to the virus).

For this cruise, they specifically marketed it as vaccinated only (though there seems to be at least 1 exception for children too young to vaccinate)


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 11, 2021)

Don't c


Grace T. said:


> Well, if all you require is them to state that they are vaccinated (and not require any proof such as a vaccine card, which is the only proof of which I'm currently aware), then it is the honors systems idiot (because you are trusting people not to lie about it, and the COVID test does not tell you if people are vaccinated or not...it only tells you about exposure to the virus).
> 
> For this cruise, they specifically marketed it as vaccinated only (though there seems to be at least 1 exception for children too young to vaccinate)


Don't confuse him with facts...


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

Having two children in the family that slipped into a dark place, it's not hard to believe....





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Don't c
> 
> Don't confuse him with facts...


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well, if all you require is them to state that they are vaccinated (and not require any proof such as a vaccine card, which is the only proof of which I'm currently aware), then it is the honors systems idiot (because you are trusting people not to lie about it, and the COVID test does not tell you if people are vaccinated or not...it only tells you about exposure to the virus).
> 
> For this cruise, they specifically marketed it as vaccinated only (though there seems to be at least 1 exception for children too young to vaccinate)


"Well, if all you require is for them to state..." - where does that come from?  It's not on the Celebrity advisory page I linked.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> "Well, if all you require is for them to state..." - where does that come from?  It's not on the Celebrity advisory page I linked.



round and round we go.  You were the one that stated they required to test those without vaccine cards.  This cruise was advertised as a "vaccine only"  cruise.  So either: a) your statement is false, b) the company is lying about this being a vaccinated only cruise (children apparently excepted), or c) they required them to state they were vaccinated but if couldn't show proof they tested them (which is what your statement directly leads to but contradicts both the USA and NYT articles which say it's an "and" that you needed to do both and they had rapid tests available prior to boarding).


----------



## espola (Jun 11, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> round and round we go.  You were the one that stated they required to test those without vaccine cards.  This cruise was advertised as a "vaccine only"  cruise.  So either: a) your statement is false, b) the company is lying about this being a vaccinated only cruise (children apparently excepted), or c) they required them to state they were vaccinated but if couldn't show proof they tested them (which is what your statement directly leads to but contradicts both the USA and NYT articles which say it's an "and" that you needed to do both and they had rapid tests available prior to boarding).


I was just quoting news articles.  Who were you quoting with your "honor system"?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 11, 2021)

espola said:


> I was just quoting news articles.  Who were you quoting with your "honor system"?


You are getting progressively worse at this. Everything ok man?  Maybe time to talk to a doctor about it?


----------



## crush (Jun 12, 2021)

*Teen Hospitalized With Blood Clots in Brain After First Dose of Pfizer Vaccine*
The mother of the 17-year-old, whose symptoms were initially dismissed as a pulled neck muscle, said she regrets her decision to allow him to be vaccinated.


----------



## crush (Jun 12, 2021)

Harming the little children=Millstone wrapped around one's neck.  

*Teen suicide attempts spiked during COVID-19 lockdowns: CDC*
*Suspected suicide attempts among girls ages 12-17 increased nearly 51% between February and March*


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The nonsense is the crap they peddle in critical race theory. If you like the idea of creating division where there wasn't any before, the CRT is for you. But then again you just regurgitate what you are spoon fed.


So you are clueless about it as well? Do you know anything about it?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Do you mean "behold the nonsense."  followed by your response "The nonsense is the crap they peddle in critical race theory"
> 
> I'll ask again -- what is that nonsense and crap?


Pup gets told what to think and is always angry and confused when everyone else isn’t privy to the same bs.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 12, 2021)

espola said:


> I was just quoting news articles.  Who were you quoting with your "honor system"?


Haven’t you learned over the last 10+ years that nutters don’t do accountability? Aff, lion, prophet, Nono, what’s up, the list goes on, never backed up any of their inane bs. Aff pointed to other anonymous online Reddit heroes and Twitter tweakers was the best they ever did, most just blamed others for not researching their fictional ideas.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Haven’t you learned over the last 10+ years that nutters don’t do accountability? Aff, lion, prophet, Nono, what’s up, the list goes on, never backed up any of their inane bs. Aff pointed to other anonymous online Reddit heroes and Twitter tweakers was the best they ever did, most just blamed others for not researching their fictional ideas.


You're doing some serious day drinking!! What's wrong Sunshine..feeling left behind or just insignificant?


----------



## crush (Jun 13, 2021)

I need some help.  Please be honest with what you think, thanks   Is this a lie or me being shrewd as a snake?  My son say's, "that's a lie dad."

Yesterday we dropped my first born off for his second try at college.  Dude got a cool place right across from soccer stadium and his own room.  16 months with online college at my crib and being locked up was tough.  I pray all goes well.  Anyway, he gave us a ride home and we stopped off at gas station in Carlsbad.  I forgot my mask ((I swear I did)) and got me a drink.  I went up to the counter and the kid behind the pixy class asked me if I had a mask?  I did not want to walk back to my car for a mask so I said, "Bro, I take my V's."  He said, "ok."  All was cool but not cool for my boy.  After I explain to him my truth, he sort of agreed.  Thoughts?


----------



## N00B (Jun 13, 2021)

It’s a lie.  Period.


----------



## crush (Jun 13, 2021)

N00B said:


> It’s a lie.  Period.


ok, thanks for honest feedback.  Anyone else?  I think it's best that I just wear a mask and stop forgetting to wear one.  I see the issue clearly now and I will be my best to do better.  We as a family will wear a mask and obey our leaders.  Problem solved.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 13, 2021)

crush said:


> ok, thanks for honest feedback.  Anyone else?  I think it's best that I just wear a mask and stop forgetting to wear one.  I see the issue clearly now and I will be my best to do better.  We as a family will wear a mask and obey our leaders.  Problem solved.


Fauci disagrees...


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 13, 2021)

crush said:


> ok, thanks for honest feedback.  Anyone else?  I think it's best that I just wear a mask and stop forgetting to wear one.  I see the issue clearly now and I will be my best to do better.  We as a family will wear a mask and obey our leaders.  Problem solved.


There were leaders during covid?  All I saw were a bunch of lying cowards.


----------



## crush (Jun 14, 2021)




----------



## watfly (Jun 14, 2021)

Here is a good article on what the rules effective tomorrow mean.









						Vaxxed or masked? What you need to know to navigate San Diego's reopening
					

With vaccination rates up and COVID-19 cases way down, California is poised to ditch masks and social distancing, but there are still a few rules and protections in place as we navigate a new pandemic landscape




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com
				




I thought this guy has a novel concept, I'm going to make him an honorary member of "Team Virus":

_As Californians enter a largely mask-free era, the vaccinated should feel more comfortable about being protected against the coronavirus, but there are still likely to be clashes over the wearing of facial coverings, suspects Dr. Davey Smith, UC San Diego’s chief of infectious disease research.

*“*If you’re vaccinated, an unvaccinated person doesn’t present a big threat to you and it’s always been that way,” Smith said. “I only worry about people getting into arguments at Starbucks about someone not wearing a mask.

*We’re coming to a time where we need to have self-policing as opposed to others policing.* *I’ll take care of myself and not worry about others out there.*”_

It sounds like he is advising Dad4 to stay out of Starbucks.


----------



## crush (Jun 14, 2021)

watfly said:


> Here is a good article on what the rules effective tomorrow mean.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This made my day Watfy.  Seriously, I will wear my mask now all the time with pride and all you vaxers like dad can look down on me some more....lol!  Kicking and screaming and I will see eye to eye and give fist pump to each other.  I will wear my mask with pride. If anyone gives me crap at Starbucks, they will get some back from me.  In fact, I'm going to laminate this quote from Doc.  WTF, right?  At the end of the day I dont think it's asking me too much to wear a mask and stay away from those who have no mask.  All I ask is you better stay away from me, thank you


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 14, 2021)

Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates
					

While seasonal variation has a known influence on the transmission of several respiratory viral infections, its role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. As previous analyses have not accounted for the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the first year of the...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## espola (Jun 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates
> 
> 
> While seasonal variation has a known influence on the transmission of several respiratory viral infections, its role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. As previous analyses have not accounted for the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the first year of the...
> ...


*5. Conclusion*
Failing to account for seasonality may lead to grave policy errors or Panglossian outlooks. For instance, a reduction in transmission over the summer may be misinterpreted as the result of herd immunity [30], and so lead to inadequate preparation for a resurgence during the colder months. Overestimating the role of environmental factors may be equally perilous if policymakers anticipate a greater reduction due to seasonality than will actually occur.

They had to write a whole paper for that?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 14, 2021)

watfly said:


> Here is a good article on what the rules effective tomorrow mean.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not really a Starbucks fan, anyway.  I can brew my own coffee.


----------



## espola (Jun 14, 2021)

espola said:


> *5. Conclusion*
> Failing to account for seasonality may lead to grave policy errors or Panglossian outlooks. For instance, a reduction in transmission over the summer may be misinterpreted as the result of herd immunity [30], and so lead to inadequate preparation for a resurgence during the colder months. Overestimating the role of environmental factors may be equally perilous if policymakers anticipate a greater reduction due to seasonality than will actually occur.
> 
> They had to write a whole paper for that?


The math checks out, but only because of this --

 The noise term _Nt,l_ then varies with the model, e.g. a log-normal multiplicative factor in Brauner et al. [20] and a random walkbased multiplicative factor in Sharma et al. [21]. Mechanistically, the noise term can be intuitively thought of as a random effect that accounts for residual variation not captured by the NPI effects.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 14, 2021)

espola said:


> *5. Conclusion*
> Failing to account for seasonality may lead to grave policy errors or Panglossian outlooks. For instance, a reduction in transmission over the summer may be misinterpreted as the result of herd immunity [30], and so lead to inadequate preparation for a resurgence during the colder months. Overestimating the role of environmental factors may be equally perilous if policymakers anticipate a greater reduction due to seasonality than will actually occur.
> 
> They had to write a whole paper for that?


If you think about it, we are all making exactly that mistake right now.

It's summer.  Transmission is down.  It must be time to declare it all is over.  And we are.

I don't think the paper will change many minds, but I can't say the paper was not needed.


----------



## espola (Jun 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you think about it, we are all making exactly that mistake right now.
> 
> It's summer.  Transmission is down.  It must be time to declare it all is over.  And we are.
> 
> I don't think the paper will change many minds, but I can't say the paper was not needed.


The paper was not needed, other than that concluding paragraph.  In a way, it reminds me of Sokal's prank paper on Transformative Hermeneutics of Quantum Gravity, which actually got published in a professional journal 25 years ago.


----------



## espola (Jun 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really a Starbucks fan, anyway.  I can brew my own coffee.


Me, too, and less than 10 cents a cup (or 30 cents if I use the Starbucks ground coffee).


----------



## crush (Jun 14, 2021)

This guy better watch out.  My advice is to not sleep by a pillow. It might attack at you at night.  People want him to retire right now and i mean right now.  These are some gnarly times.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you think about it, we are all making exactly that mistake right now.
> 
> It's summer.  Transmission is down.  It must be time to declare it all is over.  And we are.
> 
> I don't think the paper will change many minds, but I can't say the paper was not needed.


A single paper is suppose to change the faulty use of the PCR test?  Eloquent fools you are.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates
> 
> 
> While seasonal variation has a known influence on the transmission of several respiratory viral infections, its role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. As previous analyses have not accounted for the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the first year of the...
> ...


Nice climate change segue.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 14, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 14, 2021)

Well, one of the worst hysterics is publishing a book.

It's _Preventable: The Inside Story of How Leadership Failures, Politics and Selfishness Doomed the U.S. Coronavirus Response_, by Andy Slavitt, former Biden COVID adviser.

*You can tell from the title: it'll be the usual, predictable nonsense.

If only we hadn't been "selfish," and if only our leaders had done X or Y, blah blah blah.

Andy, we did do X and Y. The signs of the wreckage are everywhere.*

These people live in a dream world where we implemented the principles of the Great Barrington Declaration. No, Andy, we did what you wanted. The closed businesses, the despair, the ruined lives -- the evidence is all around you.

*There is zero correlation between lockdown stringency and health outcomes anywhere.

But here's some correlation for you: not one country with less than 40 percent of its people overweight had a problem with COVID. Not one.

Every single such country had a death rate lower than 10 in 100,000.*

There isn't a lot that the state can do about that, so politicians rarely even bother pointing it out. All the plexiglass barriers in the world, and all the pretending that walking to your table in a restaurant without a mask is going to give someone COVID, can't overcome that.

And remember, when Andy was asked point-blank on MSNBC about why places that ignored his advice were doing no worse than those who were ruining people's lives by following it to the letter, he had no answer.

I'm not exaggerating. He could not explain why his advice made no difference at all.

The entirety of his answer was: "Look, there's so much of this virus that we think we understand, that we think we can predict, that's just a little bit beyond our explanation."

And this guy thinks he's in a position to write a book lecturing all of us about everything we did wrong.

*I'm waiting for the Scott Atlas book. That one will tell us what we need to know about what really went on, and the arbitrariness of the "guidance" we were given. (Really, how can any thinking person not snicker at the phrase "CDC guidance" at this point?) *And yes, such a book is coming, as Stanford's Jay Bhattacharya told me on the Tom Woods Show.


----------



## crush (Jun 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Well, one of the worst hysterics is publishing a book.
> 
> It's _Preventable: The Inside Story of How Leadership Failures, Politics and Selfishness Doomed the U.S. Coronavirus Response_, by Andy Slavitt, former Biden COVID adviser.
> 
> ...


Local paper I wont name in LA basically said it's people like me who refuse to obey the new rules to take the DNA modified drug is why tomorrow is so confusing for 90% of business owners.  Disneyland is doing "an honors system."  My son went to Magic Mountain and said it was hard core rule enforcers.  If you get caught once with mask below nose or off, you got one warning.  Next time, you get booted from the 3 hour line.  My son said it was fun but not fun having to wear a mask and I would hate it.


----------



## crush (Jun 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


>







He loved his son so much.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 14, 2021)

espola said:


> The paper was not needed, other than that concluding paragraph.  In a way, it reminds me of Sokal's prank paper on Transformative Hermeneutics of Quantum Gravity, which actually got published in a professional journal 25 years ago.


The estimate for impact on Rt is very useful.

They put it at 42% reduction for being in summer.  Or, equivalently, a 73% increase for being in winter.

That scale of difference implies that most of CA will see a peak again this winter- even without Delta.  With current behavior, we are almost at a steady state in summer.  Multiply R by 1.7, and it looks messy again.


----------



## espola (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The estimate for impact on Rt is very useful.
> 
> They put it at 42% reduction for being in summer.  Or, equivalently, a 73% increase for being in winter.
> 
> That scale of difference implies that most of CA will see a peak again this winter- even without Delta.  With current behavior, we are almost at a steady state in summer.  Multiply R by 1.7, and it looks messy again.


There are so many fudge factors in their arithmetic that even if they are  wrong, they can show you how.

It reminds me of the old engineering school humor formulas for the angle of the dangle.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 15, 2021)

espola said:


> There are so many fudge factors in their arithmetic that even if they are  wrong, they can show you how.
> 
> It reminds me of the old engineering school humor formulas for the angle of the dangle.


You might ignore it if we had not had a large surge in cases last winter, and if Argentina were not such a mess right now.  Those numbers are completely consistent with a large seasonal swing in R.  

Are you arguing whether the impact is 32% or 52%?  Or are you trying to make a case that covid is not seasonally dependent?  I don’t see much logical room for the second.


----------



## espola (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You might ignore it if we had not had a large surge in cases last winter, and if Argentina were not such a mess right now.  Those numbers are completely consistent with a large seasonal swing in R.
> 
> Are you arguing whether the impact is 32% or 52%?  Or are you trying to make a case that covid is not seasonally dependent?  I don’t see much logical room for the second.


My original argument was that it is too soon to tell, even before seeing this paper.  Their best argument is that most viral respiratory diseases have shown seasonal behavior.  This paper recognizes a lot of factors that may mask the seasonality, so they have prepared escape clauses no matter what happens.  If the global vaccination effort is truly successful, there won't be a second year to extract a seasonal behavior from anyways.

As I have already posted, their Conclusion paragraph is obvious and unnecessary.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You might ignore it if we had not had a large surge in cases last winter, and if Argentina were not such a mess right now.  Those numbers are completely consistent with a large seasonal swing in R.
> 
> Are you arguing whether the impact is 32% or 52%?  Or are you trying to make a case that covid is not seasonally dependent?  I don’t see much logical room for the second.


We are vaccinated. We will be fine. 

Argentina? 

Well they have made some bad decisions. They bought 20+ million doses from the Russians. They have also signed a deal with the Chinese. And for a laugher they are considering a Cuban vaccine. 

They are finally starting to get in still relatively small quantities the good vaccines produced in the west. 

Had they started with the good stuff they would be fine. Instead they went cheap and bought from the Russians and the Chi-Coms.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> We are vaccinated. We will be fine.
> 
> Argentina?
> 
> ...


They also only have a relatively small percentage of their population vaccinated to begin with...and most are with the suspect Russian vaccine.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> We are vaccinated. We will be fine.
> 
> Argentina?
> 
> ...


It depends on what you mean by “We are vaccinated. We will be fine.”

If you mean “Hound and Dad4 are vaccinated.  We will be fine”, then you are correct and I appreciate your concern.

If you mean, “The country as a whole is vaccinated”, then you are in error.  

Our current vaccination rate is probably not high enough to handle a seasonal swing of a high transmission variant like Delta.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It depends on what you mean by “We are vaccinated. We will be fine.”
> 
> If you mean “Hound and Dad4 are vaccinated.  We will be fine”, then you are correct and I appreciate your concern.
> 
> ...


The people that count are vaccinated at a very high rate. The 65+ are 80% or more vaccinated. And that is the group where you had 80% of all deaths.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The people that count are vaccinated at a very high rate. The 65+ are 80% or more vaccinated. And that is the group where you had 80% of all deaths.


In fairness to dad4 the data out of India and the Uk is showing it’s also more complicating for the 40-65 year old set. But the reply to that is those people have now had a chance to be fully vaccinated and if they have refused it’s on them.

if for example mortality for 0-12 had substantial increased (over the mortality for the yearly flu) and 0-12 could still not get vaccinated, then dad would have a point. But since that does not appear to be the case he doesn’t.


----------



## watfly (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It depends on what you mean by “We are vaccinated. We will be fine.”
> 
> If you mean “Hound and Dad4 are vaccinated.  We will be fine”, then you are correct and I appreciate your concern.
> 
> ...


I'm somewhat skeptical of what the true number is for herd immunity, but apparently "they" are claiming that SD and CA are there.  SD is 75% for 12 and older.  CA is 66% for 12 and older and >70% for adults.









						San Diego County reaches key benchmark: herd immunity
					

Crews begin removing emergency overflow hospital from Palomar Medical Center Escondido




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com
				




Obviously there are some caveats to herd immunity.


----------



## espola (Jun 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The people that count are vaccinated at a very high rate. The 65+ are 80% or more vaccinated. And that is the group where you had 80% of all deaths.


In any pre-covid year, the overwhelming majority of all death from all causes are in that 65+ group.  Does your analysis take that into account.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'm somewhat skeptical of what the true number is for herd immunity, but apparently "they" are claiming that SD and CA are there.  SD is 75% for 12 and older.  CA is 66% for 12 and older and >70% for adults.


It's all a guessing game. Is the "safe" distance really 6 feet? How long does the vaccine "last"? How sick will people get if they get it but had the vaccine? How many people have immunity that already had it but didn't get vaccinated? The last one is NEVER included in any analysis of herd immunity. Of course, current "reporting" is generally not about giving full information. It is about encouraging or scaring people into getting the vaccine or scaring people from getting the vaccine.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> It's all a guessing game. Is the "safe" distance really 6 feet? How long does the vaccine "last"? How sick will people get if they get it but had the vaccine? How many people have immunity that already had it but didn't get vaccinated? The last one is NEVER included in any analysis of herd immunity. Of course, current "reporting" is generally not about giving full information. It is about encouraging or scaring people into getting the vaccine or scaring people from getting the vaccine.


True this, but seroprevalence studies of Indian cities pre the Delta were just under 50% from the first wave (yeah, there were some troubles with the studies including self-selection but even with the distortion it's still north of 40%)...with an R0 of over 6, the Delta variant is going to make sure that every last person who hasn't had it (and some that have) will get it so the herd immunity number is likely to be very high (again, as you said, it's all just a guess).   The herd immunity numbers are also a variable which fluctuate based on the R0, seasonality and mobility, among other factors. The evolutionary pressure (as life always seeks to survive) is then likely to pressure the virus to steer away from existing immunity,

But, as has been said before, the vaccines do a very good job of preventing serious complications.  Part of the problem with the novel coronavirus is that it's novel so our immune systems haven't seen it before....but once vaccinated they have, which even if the antibodies fail, we still have the t cells.  It's becoming more and more likely this thing becomes endemic, though there's still a chance it blows itself out if the Delta variant quickly hits herd immunity thresholds.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'm somewhat skeptical of what the true number is for herd immunity, but apparently "they" are claiming that SD and CA are there.  SD is 75% for 12 and older.  CA is 66% for 12 and older and >70% for adults.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think the journalist who wrote the article misunderstands the science.  He’s taking the early herd immunity estimate for total pop and applying it to the 12+ vax rate.

I come up with about 69% immunity in SD, after accounting for natural immunity and breakthrough infections.  Nice, but not the 85% they think is needed for Delta.  SCC came in at 70%.  Higher vaccination rate but lower seroprevalence.


----------



## watfly (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think the journalist who wrote the article misunderstands the science.


Journalism is dead, so I will take your word for it.  Unfortunately, science is heading down the same path.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> Journalism is dead, so I will take your word for it.  Unfortunately, science is heading down the same path.


here’s some of the dead science for you:









						Delta variant could cause significant third wave - latest Imperial modelling | Imperial News | Imperial College London
					

Imperial’s latest modelling suggests the Delta variant could lead to a significant third wave of hospitalisations and deaths.




					www.imperial.ac.uk
				




ICL is estimating that Delta is about 2x as infectious as UK/Alpha.  

So, get your shots and eat your veggies.


----------



## watfly (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> here’s some of the dead science for you:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The article lost me at "modeling".

I'm doing better with my veggies, and I plan on adding a lot of natural vitamin D to my regimen.


----------



## crush (Jun 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> The article lost me at "modeling".
> 
> *I'm doing better with my veggies*, and I plan on adding a lot of natural vitamin D to my regimen.


Excellent!!!  Right now I'm eating baby potatoes, bell peppers, onions, cilantro, squash and some super tasty avocado on top.  This morning I had my juices and some tasty oatmeal.  I can say 100% I feel the best ever.  I quit coffee too.  Lemon water and some tasty tea that wires me up for the day.  Keep doing better bro.  Try to cut meat out for 30 days and see how you feel.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 15, 2021)

This thread is becoming more and more like Chicken Little by the day….


----------



## dad4 (Jun 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> This thread is becoming more and more like Chicken Little by the day….


That's just me.   Most of the thread is more like an ostrich than a chicken.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 15, 2021)

crush said:


> He loved his son so much.
> View attachment 10991


I donʻt know how parents go on.  Writing a song would be.....for me


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It depends on what you mean by “We are vaccinated. We will be fine.”
> 
> If you mean “Hound and Dad4 are vaccinated.  We will be fine”, then you are correct and I appreciate your concern.
> 
> ...


Especially if youʻre relying on PCR test.  The actuaries arenlt interested in your and statspolaʻs babble.


----------



## crush (Jun 15, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> I donʻt know how parents go on.  Writing a song would be.....for me


It's hard and not a day goes by you dont think of your lost child.  My bro, who fought in Vietnam, lost his 7 year old dd by those stupid lawn darts in 1987.  He took on Government and got those suckers removed.  That's one way to go on.  He set up a foundation and went after all the toys that were dangerous.  I have much respect for Mr. Snow and all he went through.  He also lost his father when he was 9.  His dad was big time business man and owned 5 homes Laguna Beach, two homes in San Clemente, Rubber company in Fullerton and two homes in Fullerton and a few commercial buildings. On top of all that, he was the lead attorney for Chrysler on the West Coast and big time USC grad.  On top of all that he owned 25% of Hawaiian Punch.  My mother was ripped off by those free mason business dudes who took advantage of a window and her four children.  Total losers!!!  
For those who missed my bro from another bloodline, check this out.  He kicked ass!!!


----------



## watfly (Jun 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> This thread is becoming more and more like Chicken Little by the day….


Some people are just into "fear porn"...to each their own.



dad4 said:


> That's just me.   Most of the thread is more like an ostrich than a chicken.


That's a solid, witty comeback.  Kudos.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That's just me.   Most of the thread is more like an ostrich than a chicken.


That's what happens when you ignore virus history.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 15, 2021)

watfly said:


> The article lost me at "modeling".


You mean re-modeling.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It depends on what you mean by “We are vaccinated. We will be fine.”
> 
> If you mean “Hound and Dad4 are vaccinated.  We will be fine”, then you are correct and I appreciate your concern.
> 
> ...


The danger is in us relying on a silver bullet to save the planet.  What about therapies that work?  Prednisone, Ivermectin, Hydroxychloroquine?  Vitamin D, exercise, weight loss?  Good grief.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 15, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The danger is in us relying on a silver bullet to save the planet.  What about therapies that work?  Prednisone, Ivermectin, Hydroxychloroquine?  Vitamin D, exercise, weight loss?  Good grief.


It's strange that herd immunity has migrated from "those who had it" to "those who are vaccinated ". When they only count one or the other (in this case the vaccinated)the numbers are obviously skewed. 

Did anyone catch Gov Gav today. Proudly proclaiming to move past the mask as he is surrounded by masked characters...


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 15, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> It's strange that herd immunity has migrated from "those who had it" to "those who are vaccinated ". When they only count one or the other (in this case the vaccinated)the numbers are obviously skewed.
> 
> Did anyone catch Gov Gav today. Proudly proclaiming to move past the mask as he is surrounded by masked characters...


It's worse than strange or skewed when what is being administered is not a vaccine.   Therapies that can be employed to combat variants are not even mentioned or offered.  It's all about Pathogenic Priming.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> here’s some of the dead science for you:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm definitely doubling down and doing both. Exercising more too - not so much because of COVID - just because I've been a lazy POS for some time now.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 15, 2021)

crush said:


> Excellent!!!  Right now I'm eating baby potatoes, bell peppers, onions, cilantro, squash and some super tasty avocado on top.  This morning I had my juices and some tasty oatmeal.  I can say 100% I feel the best ever.  I quit coffee too.  Lemon water and some tasty tea that wires me up for the day.  Keep doing better bro.  Try to cut meat out for 30 days and see how you feel.


Dude, I can find enough "studies" that claim coffee is good for me that I'm not giving that up as well. I did find some good vinegar and oil dressing for my kale.


----------



## crush (Jun 16, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Dude, I can find enough "studies" that claim coffee is good for me that I'm not giving that up as well. I did find some good vinegar and oil dressing for my kale.


Look man, I speak and write from my heart.  My wife told me 6 months ago that I'm on the right path veggie wise, I just need to stop drinking coffee and I will be happier.  I told her, "never!"  Well, never say never is all I can say.  She was 100% right.  I will not tell anyone to quit eating tortured animals meat or quit coffee.  I only tell them to try and stop for 30 days and see if you feel better.  I did and now I feel like I'm 33 years old


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The people that count are vaccinated at a very high rate. The 65+ are 80% or more vaccinated. And that is the group where you had 80% of all deaths.


You discount the effect of variants acting as if nature has had enough and will stop now.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You discount the effect of variants acting as if nature has had enough and will stop now.


I discount nothing. Viruses always change. Look at the flu. However it is time to move on instead of worrying about what MIGHT happen in the future and because of that MIGHT...keep pointless restrictions in place.


----------



## crush (Jun 16, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Dude, I can find enough "studies" that claim coffee is good for me that I'm not giving that up as well. I did find some good vinegar and oil dressing for my kale.


You are what you eat.  You are what you drink.  You are what you think.  You are a human being.....Love you bro.  Soon this will get better.  This is a mental war and war in our brains.  Eat and drink healthy and then work on the soul.  Some people try and skip all the hard work and just act like they feel good.  Nope, you have to start with not eating tortured animals.  Billy boy is buying all the farm and cattle in America.  Do you see how they treat these animals?  Do you see what kind of drugs they shoot them up with?  Anyway, this guy is a stud physically and a lot of his success is what he eats and drinks.


The new Waterboy


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I discount nothing. Viruses always change. Look at the flu. However it is time to move on instead of worrying about what MIGHT happen in the future and because of that MIGHT...keep pointless restrictions in place.


Who tells you they are pointless? Both sides of this issue have gone to extremes. Common sense is all we need, but the way this all got started common sense was one of the first casualties.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

crush said:


> Look man, I speak and write from my heart.  My wife told me 6 months ago that I'm on the right path veggie wise, I just need to stop drinking coffee and I will be happier.  I told her, "never!"  Well, never say never is all I can say.  She was 100% right.  I will not tell anyone to quit eating tortured animals meat or quit coffee.  I only tell them to try and stop for 30 days and see if you feel better.  I did and now I feel like I'm 33 years old


I just started coffee about three years ago. Trying to drink instead of energy drinks.. but I only drink black cold brew and now I make it myself.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Who tells you they are pointless? Both sides of this issue have gone to extremes. Common sense is all we need, but the way this all got started common sense was one of the first casualties.


So what was the first common sense thing that went away?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I discount nothing. Viruses always change. Look at the flu. However it is time to move on instead of worrying about what MIGHT happen in the future and because of that MIGHT...keep pointless restrictions in place.


You do seem to be discounting any deaths which occur among unvaccinated, or unvaccinatable people.

Even with an 80% vax rate among elderly, there are still a lot of people left vulnerable to the virus.  Remember that Delta is less picky about your age than the original virus was.  You have to ask about the vax rate in the 40-64 range, too.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You do seem to be discounting any deaths which occur among unvaccinated, or unvaccinatable people.
> 
> Even with an 80% vax rate among elderly, there are still a lot of people left vulnerable to the virus.  Remember that Delta is less picky about your age than the original virus was.  You have to ask about the vax rate in the 40-64 range, too.


Do you take into account those who have recovered and are naturally immune?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You do seem to be discounting any deaths which occur among unvaccinated, or unvaccinatable people.
> 
> Even with an 80% vax rate among elderly, there are still a lot of people left vulnerable to the virus.  Remember that Delta is less picky about your age than the original virus was.  You have to ask about the vax rate in the 40-64 range, too.


Nonsense.  As usual.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Do you take into account those who have recovered and are naturally immune?


Yes.  Seroprevalence studies are useful for that.  The hard part is finding an estimate for the strength of natural immunity relative to the new variants.

We know that Pfizer is about 88% effective at preventing serious disease from Delta.  I have not yet found a similar estimate for natural immunity.  I’ve been using 0.8, but that’s just a swag.  

Under those assumptions, even relatively high vaccination areas like San Jose are falling short, after including natural immunity.  70% instead of 85%.  So we could see another 15% of total pop get infected this winter- including any reinfections.   

Other options are vaccinating more people, going back to masks this winter, reimposing restrictions on the unvaccinated for the winter only, or some combination of the three.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes.  Seroprevalence studies are useful for that.  The hard part is finding an estimate for the strength of natural immunity relative to the new variants.
> 
> We know that Pfizer is about 88% effective at preventing serious disease from Delta.  I have not yet found a similar estimate for natural immunity.  I’ve been using 0.8, but that’s just a swag.
> 
> ...


Where do vaccinated people getting reinfected fit into your plan?


----------



## watfly (Jun 16, 2021)

crush said:


> You are what you eat.  You are what you drink.  You are what you think.  You are a human being.....Love you bro.  Soon this will get better.  This is a mental war and war in our brains.  Eat and drink healthy and then work on the soul.  Some people try and skip all the hard work and just act like they feel good.  Nope, you have to start with not eating tortured animals.  Billy boy is buying all the farm and cattle in America.  Do you see how they treat these animals?  Do you see what kind of drugs they shoot them up with?  Anyway, this guy is a stud physically and a lot of his success is what he eats and drinks.
> 
> 
> The new Waterboy
> View attachment 10995











						Coca-Cola shares drop $5 billion after Cristiano Ronaldo's gesture to drink water
					

Coca-Cola shares dropped after soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo moved two Coke bottles and gestured for people to drink water at press conference.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

watfly said:


> Coca-Cola shares drop $5 billion after Cristiano Ronaldo's gesture to drink water
> 
> 
> Coca-Cola shares dropped after soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo moved two Coke bottles and gestured for people to drink water at press conference.
> ...


Crazy the amount of power celebrities have. Elon tweets and the crypto world reacts...now CR.


----------



## crush (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes.  Seroprevalence studies are useful for that.  The hard part is finding an estimate for the strength of natural immunity relative to the new variants.
> 
> We know that Pfizer is about 88% effective at preventing serious disease from Delta.  I have not yet found a similar estimate for natural immunity.  I’ve been using 0.8, but that’s just a swag.
> 
> ...


Hey dad, I have walked into at least 7 businesses and no one said a word to me.  One place had a sign that said please wear a mask if not vaxed. Guess what dude, everyone had a mask on in this grocery store, which was odd to my brain so I asked a few folks why the mask still and they said they have not gotten shot yet.  I was amazed.  I thought everyone would have a mask off.  I asked 5 people this morning and none had the shot.  Anyway, I went in without my mask on and It felt awesome


----------



## crush (Jun 16, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Crazy the amount of power celebrities have. Elon tweets and the crypto world reacts...now CR.


We all can look our best, just like CR.  Seriously, every single human who wants to look healthy can.  However, its not easy to break bad eating habits.  H2o is the way to go.  I dont drink soda pop no more either.  I'm getting my abs back fellas, I kid you not.  I want to show you all the before Ellejustus triple chin and the new Crush.  This was no quick fix bs diet.  I've been going at this for 18 months now.  I'm landing at 170 pounds and size 30 waist.  I like the 6 meal plan a day.


----------



## watfly (Jun 16, 2021)

Follow the science might be the right call, but not in the manner that Dad4 follows the science.   More along the lines of follow the money.  How ironic is it going to be if its determined that science created, mishandled and covered up the virus?   I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but there sure is a significant amount of circumstantial evidence that links the virus to the Wuhan lab.  Combine that with the fact the other scientists rallied against the conspiracy without any investigation and you have a very troubling scenario with science.  Like any other profession, just because someone is a scientist, infectious disease researcher, epidemiologist, etc doesn't give them instant credibility and shouldn't be unquestionably followed like a cult prophet.   Academics are as influenced by bias, politics and money as much as anyone else.  Potentially even more so since their conclusions are developed in a lab, or on paper, based on controlled variables.  They aren't subject to the light of the real world where actual results are impacted by a multiple of uncontrollable variables.  It's been a bad year for science.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

watfly said:


> Follow the science might be the right call, but not in the manner that Dad4 follows the science.   More along the lines of follow the money.  How ironic is it going to be if its determined that science created, mishandled and covered up the virus?   I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but there sure is a significant amount of circumstantial evidence that links the virus to the Wuhan lab.  Combine that with the fact the other scientists rallied against the conspiracy without any investigation and you have a very troubling scenario with science.  Like any other profession, just because someone is a scientist, infectious disease researcher, epidemiologist, etc doesn't give them instant credibility and shouldn't be unquestionably followed like a cult prophet.   Academics are as influenced by bias, politics and money as much as anyone else.  Potentially even more so since their conclusions are developed in a lab, or on paper, based on controlled variables.  They aren't subject to the light of the real world where actual results are impacted by a multiple of uncontrollable variables.  It's been a bad year for science.


... this virus started at least in August of 2019.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Where do vaccinated people getting reinfected fit into your plan?


Happens about 12% of the time with Delta.  That's the flip side of the 88%.

Vaccine really only promises to mostly avoid serious infections.  It isn't a 100% guarantee of no symptoms.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 16, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> So what was the first common sense thing that went away?


Accountability was one of the first.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Accountability was one of the first.


For what?


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Happens about 12% of the time with Delta.  That's the flip side of the 88%.
> 
> Vaccine really only promises to mostly avoid serious infections.  It isn't a 100% guarantee of no symptoms.


But where do you categorize them? Do you put them in mask again?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You do seem to be discounting any deaths which occur among unvaccinated, or unvaccinatable people.
> 
> Even with an 80% vax rate among elderly, there are still a lot of people left vulnerable to the virus.  Remember that Delta is less picky about your age than the original virus was.  You have to ask about the vax rate in the 40-64 range, too.


The unvaccinated at this point have made their choice. The rest of us don’t have to bend over backwards to spare them from the consequences 

ps anyone else loving my new more aggressive alter ego?  I always thought the hatter was k&s.  The espola=dad4 thing was never credible. Would require too much acting on the part of 1 person.


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The unvaccinated at this point have made their choice. The rest of us don’t have to bend over backwards to spare them from the consequences
> 
> ps anyone else loving my new more aggressive alter ego?  I always thought the hatter was k&s.  The espola=dad4 thing was never credible. Would require too much acting on the part of 1 person.


What name does the "more aggressive alter ego" post under?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 16, 2021)

watfly said:


> Potentially even more so since their conclusions


A substantial percentage of scientists get funding from the government. 

You don't get much funding when you go against the government position or preferred politics on an issue.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> But where do you categorize them? Do you put them in mask again?


By the time it matters, we hope we will have data on the transmissibility of Delta from Pfizer vaccinated patients.

So, if they can transmit, on go the masks.  If they cannot, then maybe not.  ( Unless we need universal masks to make it enforceable. )


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> A substantial percentage of scientists get funding from the government.
> 
> You don't get much funding when you go against the government position or preferred politics on an issue.


That's a pretty simplistic view of things.  Can you name a few proposals that were turned down for funding on that basis?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The unvaccinated at this point have made their choice. The rest of us don’t have to bend over backwards to spare them from the consequences
> 
> ps anyone else loving my new more aggressive alter ego?  I always thought the hatter was k&s.  The espola=dad4 thing was never credible. Would require too much acting on the part of 1 person.


You are making the argument that, if you disobey vaccine advice, then the public health authorities should make no effort to reduce your risk of death.

That's pretty hard core.  Are you sure you are keeping your alter egos straight?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are making the argument that, if you disobey vaccine advice, then the public health authorities should make no effort to reduce your risk of death.
> 
> That's pretty hard core.  Are you sure you are keeping your alter egos straight?


It's not the public health authorities.  They don't bear any burden other than a few sleepless nights and all those grueling Vogue photo ops they make Fauci do.  They just shift the costs on other people, and it's not justified shifting those costs on others if you refuse to get vaccinated...the risk is now entirely on you.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's not the public health authorities.  They don't bear any burden other than a few sleepless nights and all those grueling Vogue photo ops they make Fauci do.  They just shift the costs on other people, and it's not justified shifting those costs on others if you refuse to get vaccinated...the risk is now entirely on you.


p.s. despite the public health authorities neglecting it, it's pretty clear that Ivermectin helps if administered early...perhaps much more than remdesivir which has a difficult protocol, is expensive, and might be less effective than even early administered HDQ.  Yet somehow it doesn't seem a priority.  That's something the public health authorities could do without shifting costs on the rest of us.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's not the public health authorities.  They don't bear any burden other than a few sleepless nights and all those grueling Vogue photo ops they make Fauci do.  They just shift the costs on other people, and it's not justified shifting those costs on others if you refuse to get vaccinated...the risk is now entirely on you.


That logic falls apart as soon as you figure out what 88% effective means.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That logic falls apart as soon as you figure out what 88% effective means.


No, it doesn't.  
1. Depending on the vaccine, they are a few % points short of reducing hospitalizations (98.6% for Pfizer) and death (99.8%) even against the Delta variant.  
2. You don't have a right to be COVID free any more than you have a right to be flu free (for which there is also a vaccination).  If it doesn't blow itself up and goes endemic, everyone will get it eventually.  It will kill off a certain % of people every year, as does the flu, colds, and adenovirus.
3. Vaccines don't mean risk elimination.  There is no such thing as risk elimination outside your fantasy world.  It means reduction of risk to equivalent background noise as for flu and car accidents.

You never answered my question to you.  Where is your acceptable level of risk: a bad flu season, a regular flu season, RSV infection (again kills hundreds of kids, thousands of elderly every year, hospitalizes tens of thousands), adenovirus outbreak, colds, a measles outbreak, polio?  Where do you want COVID before you stop worrying and demanding restrictions?


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> p.s. despite the public health authorities neglecting it, it's pretty clear that Ivermectin helps if administered early...perhaps much more than remdesivir which has a difficult protocol, is expensive, and might be less effective than even early administered HDQ.  Yet somehow it doesn't seem a priority.  That's something the public health authorities could do without shifting costs on the rest of us.


FDA still says no.









						Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19
					

Using the Drug ivermectin to treat COVID-19 can be dangerous and even lethal. The FDA has not approved the drug for that purpose.




					www.fda.gov
				




What convinces you otherwise?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

espola said:


> FDA still says no.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The studies and data out there, some of which have been posted on this thread before (yeah...I know....if you are really curious go look back....otherwise this guy (who is more Dr. Doom than even Dad4) does a good job of summarizing it in his recent videos)


----------



## Mad Hatter (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I always thought the hatter was k&s


That is an incorrect assumption.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 16, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> For what?


For one, “I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault," Trump said in a Fox News interview.


----------



## crush (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The studies and data out there, some of which have been posted on this thread before (yeah...I know....if you are really curious go look back....otherwise this guy (who is more Dr. Doom than even Dad4) does a good job of summarizing it in his recent videos)


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The studies and data out there, some of which have been posted on this thread before (yeah...I know....if you are really curious go look back....otherwise this guy (who is more Dr. Doom than even Dad4) does a good job of summarizing it in his recent videos)


So it's not a vaccine, and it's not a cure, but it has "favorable results" compared to placebos (which also could be said to have had favorable results, but not as favorable as ivermectin).


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> For one, “I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault," Trump said in a Fox News interview.


If you say it is just going to go away, and it does, then you look like some sort of scientific hero, and if it doesn't go away, you're no worse off than you were in the first place.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

espola said:


> So it's not a vaccine, and it's not a cure, but it has "favorable results" compared to placebos (which also could be said to have had favorable results, but not as favorable as ivermectin).



The threshold dad4 had set was "do nothing" to help the unvaccinated.  This is something.  Not arguing it's a vaccine, as effective as a vaccine (otherwise India wouldn't have happened), or that it is even substantially effective (though it could wind up in the end if administered early to be more effective than remdesivir which did get EMU).


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The threshold dad4 had set was "do nothing" to help the unvaccinated.  This is something.  Not arguing it's a vaccine, as effective as a vaccine (otherwise India wouldn't have happened), or that it is even substantially effective (though it could wind up in the end if administered early to be more effective than remdesivir which did get EMU).


So, instead of doing nothing, you advocate giving people a drug which the FDA considers ineffective and possibly lethal?

Can we go back to doing nothing?  That plan sounds better by comparison….


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The hard part is finding an estimate for the strength of natural immunity relative to the new variants.


It's even harder to find when you're ignoring those estimates.  It's harder to find when you ignore the fact that natural immunity is adaptive.  You eloquent fools crack me up.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, instead of doing nothing, you advocate giving people a drug which the FDA considers ineffective and possibly lethal?
> 
> Can we go back to doing nothing?  That plan sounds better by comparison….


Ignoring the data I see again, because you trust your experts that have failed us so miserably throughout this entire thing.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  *They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ignoring the data I see again, because you trust your experts that have failed us so miserably throughout this entire thing.


What data is being ignored?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

espola said:


> What data is being ignored?



Round and round we go...see above. As Campbell argues, it's sufficient, at a minimum, if we really wanted to "do something" that it would be investigated in formalized study by the health agencies and remdesivir was approved on flimsier data.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 16, 2021)

espola said:


> What data is being ignored?


You're alive aren't you?  Aren't you??


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ignoring the data I see again, because you trust your experts that have failed us so miserably throughout this entire thing.


I don't happen to trust your internet video, if that's what you mean.

There are thousands of people on the internet claiming to have proof of a new miracle drug.  You have found one of them.  Good for you.  That shows impressive research skills.

If you try really hard, maybe you can find a cat video, too.

If you think you have data, run it through the peer review process and let us know how far you get.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Dude, take a class in biological dynamical systems. Or review your differential equations.

You have this steady state bias in your thinking that keeps making you misunderstand everything.


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Round and round we go...see above. As Campbell argues, it's sufficient, at a minimum, if we really wanted to "do something" that it would be investigated in formalized study by the health agencies and remdesivir was approved on flimsier data.


Weren't those studies that Dr. Campbell reviewed "formalized"?

To my amateur eye, they were inconclusive, slightly above placebo (which, by the way, is not "doing nothing", since the patient must perceive it as equivalent to "doing something" or the test results are invalid).  My favorite placebo-ish treatment was that issued by Dr. Frank, the country doctor who lived down the street from us when I was growing up.  After determining by telephone that the patient was not in imminent danger of dying, he would suggest "Take two aspirin and call me in the morning", and if the patient did call back he would administer a dose of penicillin the next day, either in his office or during a house call depending on the situation.  I survived more than one bad fever with the aspirin, ginger ale, and penicillin routine - has anyone tried that as treatment for covid?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't happen to trust your internet video, if that's what you mean.
> 
> There are thousands of people on the internet claiming to have proof of a new miracle drug.  You have found one of them.  Good for you.  That shows impressive research skills.
> 
> ...


Everything wrong in this post. He’s not claiming to have discovered proof...he’s passing on the studies (since espola as usual doesn’t want to look up past posts on this thread). It’s not a miracle drug...your standard was do something and it seems to have a better record than remdesivir which was approved on less. As for the videos I’m not going to research for hours just to please espola...it’s a good summary and this guy isn’t a nutter...he does a good job of summarizing stuff, interviewing experts and btw he supported the mask mandates. Moreover that’s what he’s calling for: the agencies to take a good hard look at the data which they have refused to do so far despite the evidence that yeah this seems to work....that’s “something” they could do for the unvaccinated if you are so worried about saving them from their choices.  Lastly this is like the 4th time you’ve ducked my other illness question. Congratulations. Think you just set a record for most things wrong in a dad4 post.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you think you have data, run it through the peer review process and let us know how far you get.


Which Silo do your peers come from?



dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  *They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


Yup


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ignoring the data I see again, because you trust your experts that have failed us so miserably throughout this entire thing.


The game of you made one mistake so all else is void is obvious and comes from a place of partisan inspired ignorance.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The game of you made one mistake so all else is void is obvious and comes from a place of partisan inspired ignorance.


"one mistake".....funny.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> For one, “I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault," Trump said in a Fox News interview.


So Predident Trump not wanting a cruise ship with passengers that have covid 19 symptoms to dock in California to prevent further spread is a bad thing.. well to you at least...


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

espola said:


> FDA still says no.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So you go with what the FDA says as the final word then?


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He’s not claiming to have discovered proof...he’s passing on the studies.. It’s a good summary and this guy isn’t a nutter...he does a good job of summarizing stuff, interviewing experts and btw he supported the mask mandates. Moreover that’s what he’s calling for: the agencies to take a good hard look at the data which they have refused to do so far despite the evidence that yeah this seems to work....that’s “something” they could do for the unvaccinated if you are so worried about saving them from their choices.


[Note:  I took out the ad hominem parts and I am responding to what is left above]

Some of what Dr. Campbell posted is very informational about the mechanisms of new vaccines.  As for the rest of it, I don't know why he is campaigning so hard for invermectin, since remdesvir has nearly the same results proven in bigger studies.  Remdesvir was developed specifically to combat viruses and the mechanism of how it does that is well understood.  The same is not true for invermectin -- its recognized use for internal parasites and head lice.  (I'm not even sure why they tried it other than perhaps they had some available and were trying everything).  Not only that, the FDA has recognized that using large doses is dangerous.

[Now for my ad hominem part -- Notwithstanding that we have thrashed this argument into powder several times now, I am certain you will bring it IP again since your whole schtick seems to be that of a contrarian)


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

espola said:


> [Note:  I took out the ad hominem parts and I am responding to what is left above]
> 
> Some of what Dr. Campbell posted is very informational about the mechanisms of new vaccines.  As for the rest of it, I don't know why he is campaigning so hard for invermectin, since remdesvir has nearly the same results proven in bigger studies.  Remdesvir was developed specifically to combat viruses and the mechanism of how it does that is well understood.  The same is not true for invermectin -- its recognized use for internal parasites and head lice.  (I'm not even sure why they tried it other than perhaps they had some available and were trying everything).  Not only that, the FDA has recognized that using large doses is dangerous.
> 
> [Now for my ad hominem part -- Notwithstanding that we have thrashed this argument into powder several times now, I am certain you will bring it IP again since your whole schtick seems to be that of a contrarian)


Your lack of understanding is showing. The protocol for rd is much more severe than for iv. It costs more, must be administered in the hospital and as a result has been administered too late to do maximum good.  If you are going to do rd, you are better off in any case using the antibody treatments (which are another something public health can do). 


as to the ad contrarian thing, that’s hilarious coming from you...or should I just say coo coo.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> By the time it matters, we hope we will have data on the transmissibility of Delta from Pfizer vaccinated patients.
> 
> So, if they can transmit, on go the masks.  If they cannot, then maybe not.  ( Unless we need universal masks to make it enforceable. )


But how can they track if the CDC says that people who have been fully vaccinated and come into contact with a covid positive person no longer need to get tested. 

We already know that fully vaccinated people can and do transmit covid to others.


----------



## crush (Jun 16, 2021)

@Multi Sport 
This was out in the fox news today.  It does have a link about the concerns the CDC is starting to have for the kids.  









						Dr. Nicole Saphier: Let's pause COVID vaccination for our kids -- here's my take as a physician and mother
					

Without sufficient safety data and the parallel drop in MIS-C cases, I remain unconvinced on the utility of universal vaccination for COVID-19 in children right now.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Dude, take a class in biological dynamical systems. Or review your differential equations.


I need a class in biological dynamics systems to tell me that the adaptive immune system works better than a shot that is not a vaccine?  I need a class in biological dynamics systems to tell me that "Masks reduce the probability of transmission. That’s all. *They do not come close to eliminating transmission."*?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

crush said:


> @Multi Sport
> This was out in the fox news today.  It does have a link about the concerns the CDC is starting to have for the kids.
> 
> 
> ...


I disagree we should halt them, particularly in young adults...if the data review does show a problem slap a warning label on it (would also make it harder for school districts and colleges to mandate it as a result)....have parents make up their own minds.


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Your lack of understanding is showing. The protocol for rd is much more severe than for iv. It costs more, must be administered in the hospital and as a result has been administered too late to do maximum good.  If you are going to do rd, you are better off in any case using the antibody treatments (which are another something public health can do).
> 
> 
> as to the ad contrarian thing, that’s hilarious coming from you...or should I just say coo coo.


_Ivermectin has been shown to inhibit the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in cell cultures. However, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies suggest that achieving the plasma concentrations necessary for the antiviral efficacy detected in vitro would require administration of doses up to 100-fold higher than those approved for use in humans._









						Ivermectin | COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines
					

Review clinical data on the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19.




					www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov
				




Does my quoting that seem contrarian to you?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

espola said:


> _Ivermectin has been shown to inhibit the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in cell cultures. However, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies suggest that achieving the plasma concentrations necessary for the antiviral efficacy detected in vitro would require administration of doses up to 100-fold higher than those approved for use in humans._
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's not what the actual patient treatment studies are showing and you are dragging a line out of context from an NIH post that basically concludes it should be looked at further.  Haha.

And yes....yes it does.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I disagree we should halt them, particularly in young adults...if the data review does show a problem slap a warning label on it (would also make it harder for school districts and colleges to mandate it as a result)....have parents make up their own minds.


Yes and no...

"..if the vaccine successfully induces an immune response, which some studies suggest may be more robust than natural exposure to the virus, then could the vaccine incite the inflammatory reaction resulting in MIS-C? 


If so, would it be more frequent or severe if the immune response is greater? Couldn’t this place healthy children at risk of a severe outcome from the vaccine who had an extremely low likelihood of getting sick at all? "


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's not what the actual patient treatment studies are showing and you are dragging a line out of context from an NIH post that basically concludes it should be looked at further.  Haha.
> 
> And yes....yes it does.


Somehow, someway he will walk back his statements and start anew..
It's his MO.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Your lack of understanding is showing. The protocol for rd is much more severe than for iv. It costs more, must be administered in the hospital and as a result has been administered too late to do maximum good.  If you are going to do rd, you are better off in any case using the antibody treatments (which are another something public health can do).
> 
> 
> as to the ad contrarian thing, that’s hilarious coming from you...or should I just say coo coo.


Leads with the personal attack... and ends with the personal attack.

Glad to see you know your strengths.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

espola said:


> _Ivermectin has been shown to inhibit the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in cell cultures. However, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies suggest that achieving the plasma concentrations necessary for the antiviral efficacy detected in vitro would require administration of doses up to 100-fold higher than those approved for use in humans._
> 
> 
> 
> ...


With respect to ivermectin having been shown to inhibit replication in cell cultures....

www.xkcd.com/1217


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Leads with the personal attack... and ends with the personal attack.
> 
> Glad to see you know your strengths.


1. I wasn’t the one that led with the personal attack in this exchange. I never start.  I only finish
2. Funny coming from you considering the tear you’ve been on recently


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Yes and no...
> 
> "..if the vaccine successfully induces an immune response, which some studies suggest may be more robust than natural exposure to the virus, then could the vaccine incite the inflammatory reaction resulting in MIS-C?
> 
> ...


Yeah, which is why you slap a warning label on it and have the parents decide for themselves.  If we are going to argue the parents should make the in person/remote school decisions, or the sports/no sports decision, you got to trust them here too, after disclosing the relevant information.


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's not what the actual patient treatment studies are showing and you are dragging a line out of context from an NIH post that basically concludes it should be looked at further.  Haha.
> 
> And yes....yes it does.


"Last Updated: February 11, 2021"


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, which is why you slap a warning label on it and have the parents decide for themselves.  If we are going to argue the parents should make the in person/remote school decisions, or the sports/no sports decision, you got to trust them here too, after disclosing the relevant information.


That's a stretch, all the way out to 

Coocoo.


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> With respect to ivermectin having been shown to inhibit replication in cell cultures....
> 
> www.xkcd.com/1217


Even the placebo course of medication discussed in one of Dr. Campbell's videos had a 50% success rate.

I'm going to volunteer for the aspirin and ginger ale trials if they ever come up.  I'm already on some lists to volunteer for COPD medication trials.


----------



## espola (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> With respect to ivermectin having been shown to inhibit replication in cell cultures....
> 
> www.xkcd.com/1217


If you allow your cursor to rest on the comic for few seconds, you get a second gag.  This one has to do with successful treatments for petri dish cancer.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> For one, “I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault," Trump said in a Fox News interview.


And


Hüsker Dü said:


> For one, “I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault," Trump said in a Fox News interview.


And? You wanted the ship to dock to help spread COVID-19? 

Seriously Rat Boy...shake yourself.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

espola said:


> That's a stretch, all the way out to
> 
> Coocoo.


“oh magoo you’ve done it again!”


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The unvaccinated at this point have made their choice. The rest of us don’t have to bend over backwards to spare them from the consequences
> 
> ps anyone else loving my new more aggressive alter ego?  I always thought the hatter was k&s.  The espola=dad4 thing was never credible. Would require too much acting on the part of 1 person.


I can hardly keep track of the one "personality" I have. Also, doesn't the hatter have an actual avatar that isn't the first letter of his screen name? That's more work than I'd ever want to do. Espola = dad4 is just very wrong.

Have you become more aggressive?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are making the argument that, if you disobey vaccine advice, then the public health authorities should make no effort to reduce your risk of death.
> 
> That's pretty hard core.  Are you sure you are keeping your alter egos straight?


When did self-responsibility become the job of public health authorities and "hard core" to allow?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> When did self-responsibility become the job of public health authorities and "hard core" to allow?


I don't think any public health officials are trying to stop you from being responsible and getting your shots. 

The hard core part is that you expect those same public health officials to abandon their other infectious disease control measures.  

That goes against the core of what medicine is.  You don't refuse to treat the cancer just because the patient ignored your advice to stop smoking.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't think any public health officials are trying to stop you from being responsible and getting your shots.
> 
> The hard core part is that you expect those same public health officials to abandon their other infectious disease control measures.
> 
> That goes against the core of what medicine is.  You don't refuse to treat the cancer just because the patient ignored your advice to stop smoking.


You just made an argument for why they shouldn’t have final say in any of this. They only care about the 1 thing and aren’t looking at anything else. They only look at the benefit not the cost.  We’ve been saying this for a while now so funny you are now actually making the argument for us and why deferring to the experts, particularly a single group of experts, is a mistake.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't think any public health officials are trying to stop you from being responsible and getting your shots.
> 
> The hard core part is that you expect those same public health officials to abandon their other infectious disease control measures.
> 
> That goes against the core of what medicine is.  You don't refuse to treat the cancer just because the patient ignored your advice to stop smoking.


Today I heard that there will be a flex alert tomorrow.  People are being asked to refrain from using their appliances so as to not overload our grid.

I have solar and we feed the grid. Why should we be penalized because others do not have solar? They should only require those people who choose not to have solar to refrain from using their ac units when it's 99 outside. We paid zero out of pocket to have it installed so anyone can do it.

I mean, isn't Global Warming/ Climate Change the biggest threat to humanity? Shouldn't we be given lottery tickets, pre-paid credit cards, free meals and special rights because we are helping in the fight against humanities greatest threat...


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You just made an argument for why they shouldn’t have final say in any of this. They only care about the 1 thing and aren’t looking at anything else. They only look at the benefit not the cost.  We’ve been saying this for a while now so funny you are now actually making the argument for us and why deferring to the experts, particularly a single group of experts, is a mistake.


Your complaint is not the lack of cost/benefit analysis.

Your complaint is that, when doing cost benefit analysis, I insist that unvaccinated lives also have value.

We should do cost/benefit.  But you don't get to assign a value of zero to people just because they distrust the vaccine.  Those lives count, too.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 16, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Today I heard that there will be a flex alert tomorrow.  People are being asked to refrain from using their appliances so as to not overload our grid.
> 
> I have solar and we feed the grid. Why should we be penalized because others do not have solar? They should only require those people who choose not to have solar to refrain from using their ac units when it's 99 outside. We paid zero out of pocket to have it installed so anyone can do it.
> 
> I mean, isn't Global Warming/ Climate Change the biggest threat to humanity? Shouldn't we be given lottery tickets, pre-paid credit cards, free meals and special rights because we are helping in the fight against humanities greatest threat...


Not everyone can do it.  Some people rent. 

And those renters help pay for the subsidy you receive for your solar array.  Same as they chip in for any other power generation.

My owning stock in a power generation company doesn't make me immune to flex alerts.  Your part ownership of a solar array doesn't make you immune, either.

Do your part.  Same as everyone else.


----------



## watfly (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't think any public health officials are trying to stop you from being responsible and getting your shots.
> 
> The hard core part is that you expect those same public health officials to abandon their other infectious disease control measures.
> 
> That goes against the core of what medicine is.  You don't refuse to treat the cancer just because the patient ignored your advice to stop smoking.


Huge difference between disease control measures and individual medical treatment.  We should protect the vulnerable, hence my masks are still required in health care facilities.  If your only vulnerable because you *choose* not to get the vaccination, it's not my responsibility to change my behavior to accommodate you.  That's not hardcore, that's being accountable for you own choices.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not everyone can do it.  Some people rent.
> 
> And those renters help pay for the subsidy you receive for your solar array.  Same as they chip in for any other power generation.
> 
> ...


The owner of the property is the one who would reap the benefits of going solar. There is nothing to.prevent them.from doing it.

One of my kids bought stock in two of the vaxs companies and is not vaccinated.  Owning stock doesn't make you anymore responsible for the vaccines or solar then someone who doesn't. 

Combating "the greatest threat to humanity" has far more implications then if someone chooses to get vaccinated or not. The ridiculousness of our government to bribe people with their own money is the height of stupidity.  To say this is a political ploy would be understanding it.. otherwise they would have already done this to combat GW/CC.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your complaint is not the lack of cost/benefit analysis.
> 
> Your complaint is that, when doing cost benefit analysis, I insist that unvaccinated lives also have value.
> 
> We should do cost/benefit.  But you don't get to assign a value of zero to people just because they distrust the vaccine.  Those lives count, too.


You are pulling an espola and missing the point. The first is who should make the decision. You just made an argument for why it shouldn’t be the health experts because they only look at benefits not costs

the second is what we should look at in doing the cost benefit. My response to you is that those who have not taken steps to mitigate their risk do not have a right to shift their costs on those of us that have because there’s a simple way of avoiding said costs: take the damn shot.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you try really hard, maybe you can find a cat video, too.


Did you see the one where the cat plays goalkeeper?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 16, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The game of you made one mistake so all else is void is obvious and comes from a place of partisan inspired ignorance.


Still ignoring the data I see.


----------



## N00B (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't think any public health officials are trying to stop you from being responsible and getting your shots.
> 
> The hard core part is that you expect those same public health officials to abandon their other infectious disease control measures.
> 
> That goes against the core of what medicine is.  You don't refuse to treat the cancer just because the patient ignored your advice to stop smoking.


You refuse health treatment if they don’t want it, ie DNR.  You never force it against a patient’s will.

How do you not see the difference when the ‘Health Professionals’ are forcing healthy, non consenting individuals to adhere to their policy.

Note the difference between health treatment and health policy.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Leads with the personal attack... and ends with the personal attack.
> 
> Glad to see you know your strengths.


I thought you were vaccinated against such attacks.


----------



## N00B (Jun 16, 2021)

N00B said:


> You refuse health treatment if they don’t want it, ie DNR.  You never force it against a patient’s will.
> 
> How do you not see the difference when the ‘Health Professionals’ are forcing healthy, non consenting individuals to adhere to their policy.
> 
> Note the difference between health treatment and health policy.


As a side note, I have much respect for @dad4. He has been consistent in his opinion and for the most part avoided personal attacks to make his point.  

He has been proven to be somewhat accurate in his predictions of peak infections in CA and adds value to this discussion on a regular basis.

Just a reminder to all, more dissenting voices to a particular viewpoint on an online forum doesn’t invalidate the other position.


----------



## espola (Jun 17, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Today I heard that there will be a flex alert tomorrow.  People are being asked to refrain from using their appliances so as to not overload our grid.
> 
> I have solar and we feed the grid. Why should we be penalized because others do not have solar? They should only require those people who choose not to have solar to refrain from using their ac units when it's 99 outside. We paid zero out of pocket to have it installed so anyone can do it.
> 
> I mean, isn't Global Warming/ Climate Change the biggest threat to humanity? Shouldn't we be given lottery tickets, pre-paid credit cards, free meals and special rights because we are helping in the fight against humanities greatest threat...


78°F is too hot for you?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 17, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Couldn’t this place healthy children at risk of a severe outcome from the vaccine who had an extremely low likelihood of getting sick at all? "


People under 24 have no risk. At this point into covid you have had slightly more than 300 people under the age of 24 die from covid. 

Based on those numbers there is no need to run out and vaccinate them. More people in this age group die from the flu. 

It amazes me watching people say we have to get this group vaccinated. Why?


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 17, 2021)

espola said:


> 78°F is too hot for you?


Did I call the flex alert?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 17, 2021)

N00B said:


> As a side note, I have much respect for @dad4. He has been consistent in his opinion and for the most part avoided personal attacks to make his point.
> 
> He has been proven to be somewhat accurate in his predictions of peak infections in CA and adds value to this discussion on a regular basis.
> 
> Just a reminder to all, more dissenting voices to a particular viewpoint on an online forum doesn’t invalidate the other position.


1. I really respect his math skills. He and I have agreed on many predictions but disagree on the scope of the resulting predictions and what we should do about it because we disagree on the weight to be given input variables
2. He’s keeping awful company which should be a sign he should check himself
3. He is a closet authoritarian as I and others have observed
4. He then considers this a personal attack. It’s not. It’s an observation of the reality of the situation which he just doesn’t want to hear. 
5. when pushed into a corner and his views come under heavy scrutiny he then lashes out with similar person attacks against the other side.YeahI know it’s a defense mechanism.  But like the tournament thing it makes him a bit of a hypocrite since he chooses the Schtick of crying personal attack
6. It’s very clear he holds team reality in utter contempt. Looks down on them for not being as educated or as virtuous as himself. You see it in the tone, words he puts in people’s mouths a d comments directed at myself, hound, bruddah multi sport and others. 
7. this comes from his trust the expert mentality which comes from a place not just ofbelieving the experts to be right but want to protect the rule by meritocracy ideology which shapes his politics, no doubt because he identifies with the class (and from which I’m an apostate).
8. More recently as the walls have crumbled around his position and even the politicians have chosen to not accept his prescribed positions such as masks for ever he has gotten a bit more testy
9. Nevertheless I welcome his views. He has good insights and the debate is welcome
10. At this point though with him we are debating (not always but for the most part) religion and well we all know how those conversations with other people tend to go


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 17, 2021)

N00B said:


> As a side note, I have much respect for @dad4. He has been consistent in his opinion and for the most part avoided personal attacks to make his point.
> 
> He has been proven to be somewhat accurate in his predictions of peak infections in CA and adds value to this discussion on a regular basis.
> 
> Just a reminder to all, more dissenting voices to a particular viewpoint on an online forum doesn’t invalidate the other position.


Without @dad4, there would be much less to discuss. In the beginning, there were quite a few posters on here that had a perspective similar to @dad4. I guess they just didn't have the "stamina" (many less complimentary words also apply) to continue a year-long debate on masks and appropriate use of power w.r.t. the virus.

I find it refreshing to be able to come on here and freely express my perspective. I would be very careful openly discussing much of this with the soccer parents I know - and I really like the soccer parents on my daughter's team. It feels there is a rising intolerance for certain perspectives and many people will be "done with" another if they find one perspective outside of their self-determined norm.


----------



## espola (Jun 17, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Did I call the flex alert?


Part of the Flex Alert calls for setting indoor AC at 78°F or above.


----------



## espola (Jun 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 1. I really respect his math skills. He and I have agreed on many predictions but disagree on the scope of the resulting predictions and what we should do about it because we disagree on the weight to be given input variables
> 2. He’s keeping awful company which should be a sign he should check himself
> 3. He is a closet authoritarian as I and others have observed
> 4. He then considers this a personal attack. It’s not. It’s an observation of the reality of the situation which he just doesn’t want to hear.
> ...


You do really well with strawmen.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 17, 2021)

espola said:


> Part of the Flex Alert calls for setting indoor AC at 78°F or above.


Why should I? I have Solar. I should be treated differently since I'm fighting the GW war and my neighbor is not. Let me 80 year old neighbor set hers to 85 while I do 71...

Or does this line of thinking only work for vaccines...


----------



## watfly (Jun 17, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Without @dad4, there would be much less to discuss. In the beginning, there were quite a few posters on here that had a perspective similar to @dad4. I guess they just didn't have the "stamina" (many less complimentary words also apply) to continue a year-long debate on masks and appropriate use of power w.r.t. the virus.
> 
> I find it refreshing to be able to come on here and freely express my perspective. I would be very careful openly discussing much of this with the soccer parents I know - and I really like the soccer parents on my daughter's team. It feels there is a rising intolerance for certain perspectives and many people will be "done with" another if they find one perspective outside of their self-determined norm.


Dad4 is a good guy, he is just an unflinching product of his environment...as am I.  (Of course, I would argue his environment is narrowly focused).  He envisions an America where government involvement takes precedent over individual self reliance and liberty.  The way things are going he may get his wish.  Now in his defense, you can't have freedom without responsibility and lately individual accountability and responsibility seem to be lacking.  Whether that's a product of the ever growing victim mentality, or the victim mentality is a product of it, is not totally clear, although I believe its the former.


----------



## espola (Jun 17, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Why should I? I have Solar. I should be treated differently since I'm fighting the GW war and my neighbor is not. Let me 80 year old neighbor set hers to 85 while I do 71...
> 
> Or does this line of thinking only work for vaccines...


That's what I thought.

Please continue.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 17, 2021)

watfly said:


> Dad4 is a good guy, he is just an unflinching product of his environment...as am I.  (Of course, I would argue his environment is narrowly focused).  He envisions an America where government involvement takes precedent over individual self reliance and liberty.  The way things are going he may get his wish.  Now in his defense, you can't have freedom without responsibility and lately individual accountability and responsibility seem to be lacking.  Whether that's a product of the ever growing victim mentality, or the victim mentality is a product of it, is not totally clear, although I believe its the former.


The word responsibility always had an element of concern for others.  Those people in your community for whom you are responsible.   I think we’ve lost that.  

My real feeling on masks is not government centric.   We should have been willing to wear them as a way to help out those at risk.  

I find it saddening that so many people were not.   I thought we were a better people than that.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The word responsibility always had an element of concern for others.  Those people in your community for whom you are responsible.   I think we’ve lost that.
> 
> My real feeling on masks is not government centric.   We should have been willing to wear them as a way to help out those at risk.
> 
> I find it saddening that so many people were not.   I thought we were a better people than that.


If your feelings on masks weren’t government centric you wouldn’t support a mask mandate. Instead you’d support a mask recommend and have everyone (including businesses) come up with their own solution based on the available info. But you don’t trust your fellow citizens, particularly those with an r preference, hence your support for a mandate, which thus winds up being government centric. Your argument basically is “if people were just better and did as they were told I wouldn’t have to be such an authoritarian”


----------



## watfly (Jun 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The word responsibility always had an element of concern for others.  Those people in your community for whom you are responsible.   I think we’ve lost that.
> 
> My real feeling on masks is not government centric.   We should have been willing to wear them as a way to help out those at risk.
> 
> I find it saddening that so many people were not.   I thought we were a better people than that.


I'm not responsible for protecting people against themselves.  If they choose not to get a vaccination that's on them, not me.  Zero reason for a vaccinated person to wear a mask in general public situations.  Most medical professionals including the CDC agree on this.  Plus the messaging is terrible to have the vaccinated wear masks.  Overwhelmingly we know the vaccines work.  Masks have only limited effectiveness, if any, depending on a number of variables regarding the mask. 

I personally have not seen the the mask non-compliance that you speak of.  In public indoor spaces you complied or didn't get in.  I also saw mask compliance in crowded outdoor spaces, despite the fact they were likely not needed.  If you saw someone without mask its really simple to avoid them.  I believe you continue to confuse mask skepticism with mask non-compliance.  Distance and outdoors are far more effective than masks anyway.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 17, 2021)

espola said:


> You do really well with strawmen.


You tell'um scarecrow.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 17, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Why should I? I have Solar. I should be treated differently since I'm fighting the GW war and my neighbor is not. Let me 80 year old neighbor set hers to 85 while I do 71...
> 
> Or does this line of thinking only work for vaccines...


Pandemics and Climate Change.  Separate issues, same catastrophic narrative.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 17, 2021)

espola said:


> That's what I thought.
> 
> Please continue.


That's a stretch...


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 17, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Pandemics and Climate Change.  Separate issues, same catastrophic narrative.


Coocoo right?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The word responsibility always had an element of concern for others.  Those people in your community for whom you are responsible.   I think we’ve lost that.
> 
> My real feeling on masks is not government centric.   We should have been willing to wear them as a way to help out those at risk.
> 
> I find it saddening that so many people were not.   I thought we were a better people than that.





espola said:


> *You do really well with strawmen.*


Don't let the scarecrow run your life


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 17, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Coocoo right?


Legitimate murder


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 17, 2021)

N00B said:


> As a side note, I have much respect for @dad4. He has been consistent in his opinion and for the most part avoided personal attacks to make his point.
> 
> He has been proven to be somewhat accurate in his predictions of peak infections in CA and adds value to this discussion on a regular basis.
> 
> Just a reminder to all, more dissenting voices to a particular viewpoint on an online forum doesn’t invalidate the other position.


What value has he added to a discussion that ignores 50+ years of virus history and an immune system that supports a near 100% survival rate.  Just a reminder that his dissenting voice does anything but validate his viewpoint given our ability to survive and thrive as long as we have.  How is it that 1 year of data that is consistent with past pandemics is being sold as altogether different?  Atlas said that the Data was trending along historic lines since last May.  Dad4 adding value? None whatsoever.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 17, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'm not responsible for protecting people against themselves.  If they choose not to get a vaccination that's on them, not me.  Zero reason for a vaccinated person to wear a mask in general public situations.  Most medical professionals including the CDC agree on this.  Plus the messaging is terrible to have the vaccinated wear masks.  Overwhelmingly we know the vaccines work.  Masks have only limited effectiveness, if any, depending on a number of variables regarding the mask.
> 
> I personally have not seen the the mask non-compliance that you speak of.  In public indoor spaces you complied or didn't get in.  I also saw mask compliance in crowded outdoor spaces, despite the fact they were likely not needed.  If you saw someone without mask its really simple to avoid them.  I believe you continue to confuse mask skepticism with mask non-compliance.  Distance and outdoors are far more effective than masks anyway.


But where does that skepticism come from?

When doctors tell us that aspirin thins your blood, we don‘t normally get on the internet to say “no it doesn’t.”. We don’t grind up an aspirin, mix it in a bowl of pigs blood, and post the video on you tube.  Mostly, we trust that the aspirin researchers know their stuff.   

The skepticism was the result of the unwillingness, not the other way around.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> But where does that skepticism come from?
> 
> When doctors tell us that aspirin thins your blood, we don‘t normally get on the internet to say “no it doesn’t.”. We don’t grind up an aspirin, mix it in a bowl of pigs blood, and post the video on you tube.  Mostly, we trust that the aspirin researchers know their stuff.
> 
> The skepticism was the result of the unwillingness, not the other way around.


If asprin had only been around for 8 months then I'm sure there would be skepticism. 

Remember Asbestos was widely accepted,  as was pregnant women smoking. It wasn't until.years later that the deadly side affects were discovered.  Heck..these vaccines are not even fully FDA approved..


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> But where does that skepticism come from?
> 
> When doctors tell us that aspirin thins your blood, we don‘t normally get on the internet to say “no it doesn’t.”. We don’t grind up an aspirin, mix it in a bowl of pigs blood, and post the video on you tube.  Mostly, we trust that the aspirin researchers know their stuff.
> 
> The skepticism was the result of the unwillingness, not the other way around.


a. a lot of the advice is being rendered on an emergency basis and is the experts guessing...it's not settled science.
b. a lot of the advice was corrupted by politics....namely orange man bad.  Where the public health experts lost people was when they decried the outside and car worship services, but then said the BLM protests were important enough that they overrode COVID concerns.  That's the moment things really started to go off the rails and it was clear we weren't all in this together (it just depended on what your definition of "essential" was and something was "essential" for everyone).
c. adding to the concerns is that there's been a lot of self-censorship amount the expert community...mostly notably you see it in the suppression of the Chinese lab leak theory but you've also seen into in research onto other topics that deal with the orthodoxy whether masks or treatments.
d. The experts have been wrong an awful lot...again they are/were guessing.
e. The experts overturned all their years of planning for an airborne pandemic and instead went with what China recommended.  Also didn't help.
f. Whether you take an asprin (or bleach) is very different than if you lock up health people, deprived them of their livelihood, deprive their children of an education and deprive them of their liberty.

So no, trust the experts doesn't really work in this situation.  Again, it happened in 2008 (and in 2001 with the security experts believing such an attack was not possible and then with the Iraq invasion).  The expert class doesn't have a very good track record recently when it comes to big ticket issues, in part because they've walled themselves off into a group think meritocracy.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> But where does that skepticism come from?
> 
> When doctors tell us that aspirin thins your blood, we don‘t normally get on the internet to say “no it doesn’t.”. We don’t grind up an aspirin, mix it in a bowl of pigs blood, and post the video on you tube.  Mostly, we trust that the aspirin researchers know their stuff.
> 
> The skepticism was the result of the unwillingness, not the other way around.


Nonsense


----------



## watfly (Jun 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> But where does that skepticism come from?
> 
> When doctors tell us that aspirin thins your blood, we don‘t normally get on the internet to say “no it doesn’t.”. We don’t grind up an aspirin, mix it in a bowl of pigs blood, and post the video on you tube.  Mostly, we trust that the aspirin researchers know their stuff.
> 
> The skepticism was the result of the unwillingness, not the other way around.


For me the skepticism comes from a number of factors.  First off, is the early mixed messaging and the pre-pandemic studies in regards to masks.  2nd skepticism is mask material and proper usage (ie usage outside of a clinical setting)  The light switch manner in which masks suddenly became effective raised suspicion.  The weight that that masks were given didn't add up and I felt was dangerous when more effective protections were given a back seat.   Masks seemed more safety theatre than effective.   Mostly though, I'm just a born skeptic.  You have to show me, not tell me.

Were you not skeptical of the vaccine to some extent?  It seemed to me you were vaccinated months after it was available to you?  I got my vaccine as soon as I had the opportunity.  I was less skeptical of vaccines because we have a long history of success with vaccines, and while it was new it seemed like it went through rigorous testing.  Maybe I should have been more skeptical since it was so new.  At some point we all make a leap of faith.

Maybe one way to sum it up is that masks have a short history of inconsistent science, whereas vaccines do not.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 17, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'm not responsible for protecting people against themselves.
> 
> Distance and outdoors are far more effective than masks anyway.


These two sentences probably would have saved me 75% of the posts I have made here.

You know, @dad4 asks what can be done? I believe he underestimated the power of leading by example and being gracious and accepting of others who decide to take a different path. In a free society, forcing people to do things almost always backfires - if not in the short term, in the long term.


----------



## watfly (Jun 17, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> These two sentences probably would have saved me 75% of the posts I have made here.
> 
> You know, @dad4 asks what can be done? I believe he underestimated the power of leading by example and being gracious and accepting of others who decide to take a different path. In a free society, forcing people to do things almost always backfires - if not in the short term, in the long term.


As best as I can tell, Dad4 equates mask skepticism with reckless behavior, because he believes it leads to people not wearing masks or influencing others not to wear masks.   Well regardless of how you felt about masks, you weren't really going out in public without wearing one.  So you're were likely safer not going out in public anyway.   Between obey and educate, I think educate is the better option.  Skepticism is healthy.


----------



## crush (Jun 17, 2021)

watfly said:


> As best as I can tell, Dad4 equates mask skepticism with reckless behavior, because he believes it leads to people not wearing masks or influencing others not to wear masks.   Well regardless of how you felt about masks, you weren't really going out in public without wearing one.  So you're were likely safer not going out in public anyway.   Between obey and educate, I think educate is the better option.  Skepticism is healthy.


I complained a lot for mask wearing but I always did.  Today, no one is checking nothing.  We're free in the OC.  My only concern is the new Delta strain coming with the 4th wave out of wherever.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 17, 2021)

From blood donor supply, seroprevalence in the US as of March 21 was some tenths of a percentage point under 50% from vaccination and natural immunity, the vast majority of that from natural immunity.

I agree with dad4, it's probably not enough even with vaccinations and infections after March 7 or so (since it takes a few weeks for antibodies to show up) it's not enough with the Delta variant to forestall a fall/winter wave in some parts of the country (particularly since the Delta has seemed to have broken through at least in some % of cases in India through natural immunity) but barring some additional variant those waves may only be regional and quite small or non existent in some parts of the country with high infection/high vaccination (like Los Angeles or New York).

He makes a point dad4 will like that masks probably forestalled the collapse of the hospital system.  It also supports, though, that NPIs should have been limited to situations where the hospital systems were in danger of collapse.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 17, 2021)

crush said:


> I complained a lot for mask wearing but I always did.  Today, no one is checking nothing.  We're free in the OC.  My only concern is the new Delta strain coming with the 4th wave out of wherever.


Well you weren't at the Block in Orange then. Adidas store still requiring mask. I think they were the only one.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 17, 2021)

Seroprevalence among blood donors in India is at 63% late April-early may (before the big wave crested and up from 46% in January). Even correcting for blood donations tend to run younger and healthier (and therefore out and about) it’s a huge number. Delhi was at 52% in January and is at 78% April-early may. Either there is something really wrong with the antibody collection methods or the herd immunity threshold with the delta is very very high.


----------



## N00B (Jun 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Seroprevalence among blood donors in India is at 63% late April-early may (before the big wave crested and up from 46% in January). Even correcting for blood donations tend to run younger and healthier (and therefore out and about) it’s a huge number. Delhi was at 52% in January and is at 78% April-early may. Either there is something really wrong with the antibody collection methods or the herd immunity threshold with the delta is very very high.


Or… the likely blood donor profile doesn’t directly correlate with the general population in terms of exposure rate.  Younger folks tend to work more front line/essential jobs so the percentage of seroprevalence is not reflective or predictive of the general population.  Also they were not prioritized during the vaccination roll out as they are less vulnerable to negative outcomes.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Seroprevalence among blood donors in India is at 63% late April-early may (before the big wave crested and up from 46% in January). Even correcting for blood donations tend to run younger and healthier (and therefore out and about) it’s a huge number. Delhi was at 52% in January and is at 78% April-early may. Either there is something really wrong with the antibody collection methods or the herd immunity threshold with the delta is very very high.


Delta is very high transmissibility.  Almost twice as high as Alpha, which was considerably higher than the original variant.

That means the herd immunity threshold will be considerably higher, as well.  If original reached herd immunity at 70%, Delta may be more like 90.

Lower that for any NPI, but it goes right back up when you drop the NPI.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Delta is very high transmissibility.  Almost twice as high as Alpha, which was considerably higher than the original variant.
> 
> That means the herd immunity threshold will be considerably higher, as well.  If original reached herd immunity at 70%, Delta may be more like 90.
> 
> Lower that for any NPI, but it goes right back up when you drop the NPI.


We actually agree for a change (though we probably disagree on the % effects of the NPI no doubt).  The other thing about the Delta is anecdotal evidence suggest some portion of the Alpha is getting reinfected...no idea what %.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 17, 2021)

N00B said:


> Or… the likely blood donor profile doesn’t directly correlate with the general population in terms of exposure rate.  Younger folks tend to work more front line/essential jobs so the percentage of seroprevalence is not reflective or predictive of the general population.  Also they were not prioritized during the vaccination roll out as they are less vulnerable to negative outcomes.


Agree but here's the rebuttal.  They measured children too (which aren't blood donors and in India have been out of school for many months).  The correction was 10%.  They also measured blood tests for the general population (which tend to run sicker)....the correction was only 5%.  As for vaccination, the seroprevalence studies would pick up vaccine antibodies too and in India (because of it's huge size), IIRC at the time period the vaccination rate wasn't even at 2%


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 17, 2021)

This is a pretty good summary of where I think we stand economically post pandemic.  A lot of this was unavoidable NPIs or not...but a lot of it was caused by the government interventions to support the economy.  I agree with the 2 big conclusions in the video: the inflationary threat is not transitory and the supply shocks (including to labor) will carry on for several years.  There's a 3rd item building which isn't mentioned which is there's still a lot of weakness in the small business environment despite reopenings and the fear index survey among small businesses show several are in danger of tipping over this summer particularly if the inflationary pressures continue and particularly in the important economy blue states.  Think there's a real stagflation danger here, or in the alternate, severe inflationary event.  The experts might be asleep at the wheel again (or as the guy implies in the video just want to protect the billionaires and their stock market investments)


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 17, 2021)

Here's a good explanation of why the supply shocks are ongoing despite COVID relaxation.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 17, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> For one, “I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault," Trump said in a Fox News interview.


Your MO hasn't changed a bit... talk yourself into a corner then lay low because you know you put your foot in your mouth. 

Same old Rat Boy... drunk and stupid.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 18, 2021)

crush said:


> I complained a lot for mask wearing but I always did.  Today, no one is checking nothing.  We're free in the OC.  My only concern is the new Delta strain coming with the 4th wave out of wherever.


I have had interesting experiences since the changes. I frequent a Whole Foods and a Peets that are next to each other. I forgot Tuesday that masks might no longer be required. I walked into Peets with my mask - all the workers inside had a mask, but no other customers were present - picked up my to-go order and walked out. As I walked out, I realized the normal signage and sign stand outside the door were missing. That's when it hit me that Tuesday was the day. Wednesday when I walked in I saw a sign (may have been there Tuesday) that stated if you are vaccinated and symptom-free, you don't need to wear a mask. I walked in without my mask, the barista (masked as all workers were) said, "Oh, <K&S> it's nice to see your face." I thanked her, we exchanged pleasantries and I walked out. As I walked into the WF, I noticed no signs regarding mask policy - just a sign with some generic "safety protocols". I walked in without my mask. All workers were masked and every shopper was also masked - I probably saw 8 or so people. I put on my mask after a minute or so. I wasn't in the store for more than 3-4 minutes. Yesterday I went into Peets unmasked and the same barista had her mask down around her chin. With a good-natured smile, she stated, "I feel like I'm ready to tear this thing off." We talked briefly about how it is nice to see people's smiles when interacting.


----------



## crush (Jun 18, 2021)

*19-Year-Old College Freshman Dies From Heart Problem One Month After Second Dose of Moderna Vaccine*
Simone Scott underwent a heart transplant one month after developing what her doctors believe was myocarditis following her second dose of Moderna. She received the second vaccine May 1 and died June 11.


----------



## crush (Jun 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I have had interesting experiences since the changes. I frequent a Whole Foods and a Peets that are next to each other. I forgot Tuesday that masks might no longer be required. I walked into Peets with my mask - all the workers inside had a mask, but no other customers were present - picked up my to-go order and walked out. As I walked out, I realized the normal signage and sign stand outside the door were missing. That's when it hit me that Tuesday was the day. Wednesday when I walked in I saw a sign (may have been there Tuesday) that stated if you are vaccinated and symptom-free, you don't need to wear a mask. I walked in without my mask, the barista (masked as all workers were) said, "Oh, <K&S> it's nice to see your face." I thanked her, we exchanged pleasantries and I walked out. As I walked into the WF, I noticed no signs regarding mask policy - just a sign with some generic "safety protocols". I walked in without my mask. All workers were masked and every shopper was also masked - I probably saw 8 or so people. I put on my mask after a minute or so. I wasn't in the store for more than 3-4 minutes. Yesterday I went into Peets unmasked and the same barista had her mask down around her chin. With a good-natured smile, she stated, "I feel like I'm ready to tear this thing off." We talked briefly about how it is nice to see people's smiles when interacting.


Have a cup of Joe on me bro.  FYI, I'm drinking coffee again   I told my wife I tried but I want ((not need)) my coffee.


----------



## espola (Jun 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I have had interesting experiences since the changes. I frequent a Whole Foods and a Peets that are next to each other. I forgot Tuesday that masks might no longer be required. I walked into Peets with my mask - all the workers inside had a mask, but no other customers were present - picked up my to-go order and walked out. As I walked out, I realized the normal signage and sign stand outside the door were missing. That's when it hit me that Tuesday was the day. Wednesday when I walked in I saw a sign (may have been there Tuesday) that stated if you are vaccinated and symptom-free, you don't need to wear a mask. I walked in without my mask, the barista (masked as all workers were) said, "Oh, <K&S> it's nice to see your face." I thanked her, we exchanged pleasantries and I walked out. As I walked into the WF, I noticed no signs regarding mask policy - just a sign with some generic "safety protocols". I walked in without my mask. All workers were masked and every shopper was also masked - I probably saw 8 or so people. I put on my mask after a minute or so. I wasn't in the store for more than 3-4 minutes. Yesterday I went into Peets unmasked and the same barista had her mask down around her chin. With a good-natured smile, she stated, "I feel like I'm ready to tear this thing off." We talked briefly about how it is nice to see people's smiles when interacting.


Rancho San Diego branch of County Library yesterday -- I remembered my mask and had it in my back pocket.  As I approached the door, a couple of patrons exiting were masked.  The sign in the entry said mask not needed if vaccinated, so I continued in.  The first three people I saw were staffers - all masked - who smiled (I think) and said "Good afternoon".  About half the patrons inside were marked, but the two entering as I was leaving were not.


----------



## crush (Jun 18, 2021)

espola said:


> Rancho San Diego branch of County Library yesterday -- I remembered my mask and had it in my back pocket.  As I approached the door, a couple of patrons exiting were masked.  The sign in the entry said mask not needed if vaccinated, so I continued in.  The first three people I saw were staffers - all masked - who smiled (I think) and said "Good afternoon".  About half the patrons inside were marked, but the two entering as I was leaving were not.


Great work Espola.  The fact were even talking about all this is insane!!!  Seriously, this is what it's come down to?  For reals?  I'm Coo Coo for Co Co puffs!!!


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 18, 2021)

So here is what we are looking now in terms of employment for different groups. The people who could least afford it got it the worst.

This of course doesn't cover education. I am sure data will show that the lower classes suffered the most from school closures as well.


"The data are damning. They offer yet another reminder that government lockdowns hurt most those who could least afford it.

Some critics argue that the pandemic, not government lockdowns, are the true source of this economic duress. While there’s no doubt the virus itself played some role, government lockdowns were undoubtedly the single biggest factor. It’s pretty intuitive that ordering people not to patronize businesses and criminalizing peoples’ livelihoods would hurt the economy."

--

"Employment for lower-wage workers, defined as earning less than $27,000 annually, declined by a whopping 23.6 percent over the time period. Employment for middle-wage workers, defined as earning from $27,000 to $60,000, declined by a modest 4.5 percent. However, employment for high-wage workers, defined as earning more than $60,000, actually increased 2.4 percent over the measured time period despite the country’s economic turmoil."






						New Harvard Data (Accidentally) Reveal How Lockdowns Crushed the Working Class While Leaving Elites Unscathed | Brad Polumbo
					

The new Harvard data are damning. They offer yet another reminder that government lockdowns hurt most those who could least afford it.



					fee.org


----------



## crush (Jun 18, 2021)

Bad News for those who sold out and sold soul to be famous.  Jesus was offered the world by the one who has it all but he told the devil to buzz off. Well, Satan looked for others to give what was his to give and boy did he find some willing families to participate.  Fame and fortune was the reward. Enjoy the ride.......


----------



## crush (Jun 18, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Jun 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So here is what we are looking now in terms of employment for different groups. The people who could least afford it got it the worst.
> 
> This of course doesn't cover education. I am sure data will show that the lower classes suffered the most from school closures as well.
> 
> ...


Good point.  The government should have been more generous with transfer payments to low income households.

Are you arguing for higher taxes on the wealthy, debt financing to take advantage of the low interest rates at the time, or a reduction to military spending?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 18, 2021)

"Parents in Florida sent five kids' masks and one adult mask to a lab at the University of Florida.  The results were scary and disgusting, for the masks had plenty of dangerous pathogens.  The only thing missing from the masks was COVID."

- 

"The parents were concerned about potential contaminants on the mask, which is why they contacted the University of Florida's Mass Spectrometry Research and Education Center for analysis.  Each mask sent to the lab had been either new or freshly laundered at the start of the day.  Then the kids and the adult wore them for five to eight hours.  The kids, aged 6 through 11, wore their masks for in-person schooling.  In addition, for each mask, the parents sent samples from a t-shirt that one of the children had been wearing.  Three of the masks were surgical masks, two were cotton, and one was a poly gaiter.

According to Rational Ground, which reported this story, the analysis showed 11 dangerous pathogens on the masks:



> Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumonia)
> Mycobacterium tuberculosis (tuberculosis)
> Neisseria meningitidis (meningitis, sepsis)
> Acanthamoeba polyphaga (keratitis and granulomatous amebic encephalitis)
> ...











						Could there be anything more gross than the masks your kids are wearing?
					

Because I'm a bit OCD, I realized in March 2020 that Americans were doing masks wrong.  People were constantly taking the same mask off and then putting it on again after it had spent time in pockets, purses, car seats, and backpacks, o...




					www.americanthinker.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Good point.  The government should have been more generous with transfer payments to low income households.
> 
> Are you arguing for higher taxes on the wealthy, debt financing to take advantage of the low interest rates at the time, or a reduction to military spending?


My point is the gov royally screwed over those who could least afford it. 

Then on top of that we have printed trillions of dollars. Hello inflation. 

Shutting down was a very costly mistake, and the affects of that are going to be huge and felt for a long time.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I have had interesting experiences since the changes. I frequent a Whole Foods and a Peets that are next to each other. I forgot Tuesday that masks might no longer be required. I walked into Peets with my mask - all the workers inside had a mask, but no other customers were present - picked up my to-go order and walked out. As I walked out, I realized the normal signage and sign stand outside the door were missing. That's when it hit me that Tuesday was the day. Wednesday when I walked in I saw a sign (may have been there Tuesday) that stated if you are vaccinated and symptom-free, you don't need to wear a mask. I walked in without my mask, the barista (masked as all workers were) said, "Oh, <K&S> it's nice to see your face." I thanked her, we exchanged pleasantries and I walked out. As I walked into the WF, I noticed no signs regarding mask policy - just a sign with some generic "safety protocols". I walked in without my mask. All workers were masked and every shopper was also masked - I probably saw 8 or so people. I put on my mask after a minute or so. I wasn't in the store for more than 3-4 minutes. Yesterday I went into Peets unmasked and the same barista had her mask down around her chin. With a good-natured smile, she stated, "I feel like I'm ready to tear this thing off." We talked briefly about how it is nice to see people's smiles when interacting.


3 experiences:  went into Baskin Robbins right behind a couple wearing masks.  When they glanced at me without a mask standing in line behind them they jumped.  Didn't say anything beyond giving me a nasty stare

went into a popeyes.  Lady in front of me saw me without mask, took off her mask and nodded and smiled and said "alright!"

Pet food store.  I was the only one of 4 people in the store without a mask on.  When I got to the cashier she was polite enough but annoyed I wasn't wearing a mask.  The mother with a small kid behind me (all wearing masks) also gave me the staredown.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Good point.  The government should have been more generous with transfer payments to low income households.
> 
> Are you arguing for higher taxes on the wealthy, debt financing to take advantage of the low interest rates at the time, or a reduction to military spending?


Inflation is a transference from the rich to the poor.  Unfortunately going into the this, the US government (thanks to the Bush tax cuts/Obama spending/and Trump's both) was already overly leveraged and the Fed had interest rates already at historic lows for a very long time.  Taxing the wealthy would have been a mistake during the pandemic (since they were the ones spending the most money keeping the economy, such as it was, moving).....if you are going to do it, do it now: but nothing is free...it would have the effect of tamping down inflation (but probably not enough without the Fed taking sufficient action as well) and likely would contribute towards growing dangers of stagflation (though make a high inflationary event less likely).  Debt financing is what got us into this (see video posted)....we probably could have ridden the first Trump rescue package, but the second and the Biden spending (not to mention his proposed spending package to come) was too much, particularly without the fed tapping the breaks (which as the video above points out would have caused the stock market to go down). A reduction in military spending might have helped the budget but would do little for inflation and work to push us into stagflation.

The most optimal thing that could have been done was spend better the first Trump package (but government is awful at that) and maybe not do the 2nd and subsequent ones.  Or build a time machine and get Bush-Obama-Trump to manage the budget better knowing there would be a pandemic in the future.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Inflation is a transference from the rich to the poor.  Unfortunately going into the this, the US government (thanks to the Bush tax cuts/Obama spending/and Trump's both) was already overly leveraged and the Fed had interest rates already at historic lows for a very long time.  Taxing the wealthy would have been a mistake during the pandemic (since they were the ones spending the most money keeping the economy, such as it was, moving).....if you are going to do it, do it now: but nothing is free...it would have the effect of tamping down inflation (but probably not enough without the Fed taking sufficient action as well) and likely would contribute towards growing dangers of stagflation (though make a high inflationary event less likely).  Debt financing is what got us into this (see video posted)....we probably could have ridden the first Trump rescue package, but the second and the Biden spending (not to mention his proposed spending package to come) was too much, particularly without the fed tapping the breaks (which as the video above points out would have caused the stock market to go down). A reduction in military spending might have helped the budget but would do little for inflation and work to push us into stagflation.
> 
> The most optimal thing that could have been done was spend better the first Trump package (but government is awful at that) and maybe not do the 2nd and subsequent ones.  Or build a time machine and get Bush-Obama-Trump to manage the budget better knowing there would be a pandemic in the future.


opposite poor to rich


----------



## Glitterhater (Jun 18, 2021)

My only experience thus far, (since mandate lifted..) Went into Target and the lady in front of me, (who was masked,) asked the store security officer "Do you still require masks"? And he replied, "It's now your personal choice". And she replied "Oh fucking great- let's see how many idiots take their masks off".  
Even though I personally don't care about wearing a mask, (meaning whatever, if we need to so be it,) her reply is just as bad as the ones refusing to wear them. There is no commonsense living within the extreme.


----------



## watfly (Jun 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I have had interesting experiences since the changes. I frequent a Whole Foods and a Peets that are next to each other. I forgot Tuesday that masks might no longer be required. I walked into Peets with my mask - all the workers inside had a mask, but no other customers were present - picked up my to-go order and walked out. As I walked out, I realized the normal signage and sign stand outside the door were missing. That's when it hit me that Tuesday was the day. Wednesday when I walked in I saw a sign (may have been there Tuesday) that stated if you are vaccinated and symptom-free, you don't need to wear a mask. I walked in without my mask, the barista (masked as all workers were) said, "Oh, <K&S> it's nice to see your face." I thanked her, we exchanged pleasantries and I walked out. As I walked into the WF, I noticed no signs regarding mask policy - just a sign with some generic "safety protocols". I walked in without my mask. All workers were masked and every shopper was also masked - I probably saw 8 or so people. I put on my mask after a minute or so. I wasn't in the store for more than 3-4 minutes. Yesterday I went into Peets unmasked and the same barista had her mask down around her chin. With a good-natured smile, she stated, "I feel like I'm ready to tear this thing off." We talked briefly about how it is nice to see people's smiles when interacting.





Grace T. said:


> 3 experiences:  went into Baskin Robbins right behind a couple wearing masks.  When they glanced at me without a mask standing in line behind them they jumped.  Didn't say anything beyond giving me a nasty stare
> 
> went into a popeyes.  Lady in front of me saw me without mask, took off her mask and nodded and smiled and said "alright!"
> 
> Pet food store.  I was the only one of 4 people in the store without a mask on.  When I got to the cashier she was polite enough but annoyed I wasn't wearing a mask.  The mother with a small kid behind me (all wearing masks) also gave me the staredown.


I just have to laugh at my self for being such a victim of peer pressure.  Wednesday I go into a Home Depot in Santee (affectionally called Klantee by some) with a mask in hand.  I can see from outside the door that many aren't wearing masks.  So mask goes in my pocket and I go about my business.  Yesterday I walk up to Home Depot in Mission Valley with mask in pocket, as far as I can tell everyone is wearing a mask, so mask comes out of pocket and on to face.  Ironically both these stores are off the same road but about 6 miles apart, but each area leans a different direction.

I guess I'm just desperate to be accepted!


----------



## crush (Jun 18, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> My only experience thus far, (since mandate lifted..) Went into Target and the lady in front of me, (who was masked,) asked the store security officer "Do you still require masks"? And he replied, "It's now your personal choice". And she replied "Oh fucking great- let's see how many idiots take their masks off".
> Even though I personally don't care about wearing a mask, (meaning whatever, if we need to so be it,) her reply is just as bad as the ones refusing to wear them. There is no commonsense living within the extreme.


For the sake of peace, me and the wife will wear our mask, just like we always do.  We talked last night and we think it's best. Some ((we know who they are)) people who got their shots feel they deserve a maskless life now, while deplorables like me  who chose healthy life style, need to be punished for being disobedient. Can I still say it's complete BS and 100% killed small biz and small Thai food places were killed?  Plus, the kids lost almost two years off their best years all because...


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 18, 2021)

My beloved ASU came out with an idiotic covid policy for this coming year.

The governor said that isn't happening. Common sense 1, Idiocy 0









						Arizona Gov. Overrides State University’s Rule Forcing Students to Get Vaccine - The Lid
					

Arizona State U announced that it was forcing students to vaccinate. A day later Gov. Ducey issued an executive order banning the ASU directive




					lidblog.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 18, 2021)

watfly said:


> I just have to laugh at my self for being such a victim of peer pressure.  Wednesday I go into a Home Depot in Santee (affectionally called Klantee by some) with a mask in hand.  I can see from outside the door that many aren't wearing masks.  So mask goes in my pocket and I go about my business.  Yesterday I walk up to Home Depot in Mission Valley with mask in pocket, as far as I can tell everyone is wearing a mask, so mask comes out of pocket and on to face.  Ironically both these stores are off the same road but about 6 miles apart, but each area leans a different direction.
> 
> I guess I'm just desperate to be accepted!


I look at it as avoiding a confrontation. Acceptance is so much more complicated


----------



## espola (Jun 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Inflation is a transference from the rich to the poor.


I've never heard it put that way before.  Not even from Izzy.


----------



## espola (Jun 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> opposite poor to rich


That makes more sense.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> My beloved ASU came out with an idiotic covid policy for this coming year.
> 
> The governor said that isn't happening. Common sense 1, Idiocy 0
> 
> ...


If ASU has a large unvaccinated contingent this fall, that gives us a useful test case for Delta.  

How fast does Delta spread through the dorms when only 50% of students are vaccinated?  Guess we find out in August.  Large number of students, together inside sharing the AC.

It gives the rest of us a good data point before winter hits.  Similar to Arizona's ground breaking data collection experiment last August.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If ASU has a large unvaccinated contingent this fall, that gives us a useful test case for Delta.
> 
> How fast does Delta spread through the dorms when only 50% of students are vaccinated?  Guess we find out in August.  Large number of students, together inside sharing the AC.
> 
> It gives the rest of us a good data point before winter hits.  Similar to Arizona's ground breaking data collection experiment last August.


Yeah, we can also see how many hospitalizations and deaths are in this age group.  Will be interesting.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 18, 2021)

espola said:


> I've never heard it put that way before.  Not even from Izzy.


How about from William Jennings Bryan?

He saw inflation as a transfer from rich to poor, and deflation as a transfer from poor to rich.  Free silver, cross of gold, and all that.

He was right, at the time.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, we can also see how many hospitalizations and deaths are in this age group.  Will be interesting.


The real question is how many elderly and middle aged people get sick because of exposure to infected youth.  Think nurses and waitresses.

We can't really predict much until we know whether Delta breakthrough infections are common or severe.  

This is why it is thoughtful of Arizona to run the experiment for us.  It lets the upper Midwest know what to expect in October/November.


----------



## whatithink (Jun 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> My beloved ASU came out with an idiotic covid policy for this coming year.
> 
> The governor said that isn't happening. Common sense 1, Idiocy 0
> 
> ...


I don't particularly agree with what ASU tried to do, but the hyperbole around this is also stupid. Ducey is happy to mandate whatever he wants, when he wants, while also spouting about freedom and choice if someone else does something similar and he sees a political plus point in disagreeing with.

ASU already have mandates - clear and public for all to see. I haven't seen Ducey tell them to remove this mandate and leave it up to student to decide if they want to or not.





__





						New Student Immunization Requirements | Educational Outreach and Student Services
					






					eoss.asu.edu


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If ASU has a large unvaccinated contingent this fall, that gives us a useful test case for Delta.
> 
> How fast does Delta spread through the dorms when only 50% of students are vaccinated?  Guess we find out in August.  Large number of students, together inside sharing the AC.
> 
> It gives the rest of us a good data point before winter hits.  Similar to Arizona's ground breaking data collection experiment last August.


Kind of like LA's groundbreaking data collection on the futility of NPI's with their variant?


----------



## watfly (Jun 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I look at it as avoiding a confrontation. Acceptance is so much more complicated


Exactly.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yeah, we can also see how many hospitalizations and deaths are in this age group.  Will be interesting.


As of now...almost a year and a half into this we see the following:

Under the age of 29 there have been 2700 deaths total.

So there isn't any worry in this age group. 

By the way starting last August ASU had students living in dorms that were full. Can you guess what didn't happen? They even had the AC going too. Any guesses as to what didn't happen?

Trick question. Nothing.

Now going into this year you have a substantial portion of the student body vaccinated. I don't think it is much of a stretch to say as The Who did one time..."The Kids Are Alright"

Continue on @dad4


----------



## dad4 (Jun 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Kind of like LA's groundbreaking data collection on the futility of NPI's with their variant?


Are you arguing that LA would have looked better with open indoor dining and no mask rule?

I do agree that the outdoor activity restrictions were counterproductive.  

I don't see any similar argument for opening indoor dining last winter.   That would have been a very bad decision.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> As of now...almost a year and a half into this we see the following:
> 
> Under the age of 29 there have been 2700 deaths total.
> 
> ...


Arizona has the highest covid death rate west of the Mississippi.  How are you sure none of those 17,000 deaths were linked to a case spike on campus?   That is a very difficult argument to make convincingly.

Simpler to say that Arizona's covid containment efforts were a complete train wreck, and should not be repeated.


----------



## espola (Jun 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> How about from William Jennings Bryan?
> 
> He saw inflation as a transfer from rich to poor, and deflation as a transfer from poor to rich.  Free silver, cross of gold, and all that.
> 
> He was right, at the time.


We have to recognize the two common definitions of "inflation"  --Do we mean an increase in the money supply (as free silver advocates such as Bryan wanted)?  Or the upward measures of the Consumer Price Index (the "inflation" most people encounter (unless they are silver miners))?  The first mathematically likely leads to the second (if we accept economics as mathematically sound) but I think the idea in Bryan's time is that fixed-asset debts (such as mortgages) could be paid off in inflated and thus less valuable money in the future.  Good for debtors, bad for mortgage holders.

Of course, all that assumes that the debtor would be in a situation where he could obtain the cheaper money and not already knocked out by unemployment or bankruptcy.


----------



## espola (Jun 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The real question is how many elderly and middle aged people get sick because of exposure to infected youth.  Think nurses and waitresses.
> 
> We can't really predict much until we know whether Delta breakthrough infections are common or severe.
> 
> This is why it is thoughtful of Arizona to run the experiment for us.  It lets the upper Midwest know what to expect in October/November.


Don't forget middle-aged math professors - or are they already all vaccinated?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 18, 2021)

espola said:


> Don't forget middle-aged math professors - or are they already all vaccinated?


Mathematicians are an amazingly intelligent and scientifically minded group.  I’m sure they all got vaccinated months ago.

unless they were working on a really cool proof.  then maybe not.


----------



## N00B (Jun 18, 2021)

espola said:


> Of course, all that assumes that the debtor would be in a situation where he could obtain the cheaper money and not already knocked out by unemployment or bankruptcy.


The largest debt holder I can think of is the government.  Inflation is in many ways their friend.

It reduces the relative cost (value in today’s dollars borrowed) of repaying the National Debt with less valuable units of currency.

In this particular cycle, with labor shortages and the associated wage increases (minimum wage policies, unemployment boosts, increased cost of hiring or retaining employees, etc).  The wage component may keep up or stay close to the cost increases.  Maybe not, but it seems some wage increases are baked into the cake at this point even if not yet in practice in the workplace.

Either way the revenue from taxes should go up (taxation on a higher cumulative income) while the value of the payback of debt decreases at the same time.  As a bonus, politicians can tout ‘rise in worker incomes’ while taking a larger relative portion of the value of their labor.


----------



## espola (Jun 18, 2021)

N00B said:


> The largest debt holder I can think of is the government.  Inflation is in many ways their friend.
> 
> It reduces the relative cost (value in today’s dollars borrowed) of repaying the National Debt with less valuable units of currency.
> 
> ...


I remember being zapped for not paying my Alternative Minimum Tax once at a time when I didn't even know that was a thing.  It's hard for me to believe that there couldn't be some mechanism like that to raise money.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 18, 2021)

espola said:


> You do really well with strawmen.


You mean artificial devices?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 18, 2021)

espola said:


> I've never heard it put that way before.  Not even from Izzy.


Lol! Dumb and dumber!


----------



## N00B (Jun 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> What value has he added to a discussion that ignores 50+ years of virus history and an immune system that supports a near 100% survival rate.


I prefer discussion to echo chambers.


----------



## N00B (Jun 18, 2021)

N00B said:


> I prefer discussion to echo chambers.


Expounding on that point, this forum is basically a discussion that became an argument. (Not that unusual in an online forum) You may be able to discuss things in a forum setting and occasionally convince others to adopt your viewpoint… What I’ve never seen is the value of argument in lieu of discussion in an online forum.  Personal attacks don’t ever add value to a the viewpoint you’re expressing.


----------



## N00B (Jun 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You mean artificial devices?





Hüsker Dü said:


> Lol! Dumb and dumber!


Most recent Exhibit A of “Personal attacks don’t ever add value to a the viewpoint you’re expressing.”


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 18, 2021)

This is bad...





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 18, 2021)

More than 11,000 new cases of the disease were reported on Thursday, along with 19 deaths, according to the Department Health. A study by Public Health England showed infection rates increasing across all age groups, but are highest among people aged 20 to 29. Separately, the government said eight in 10 adults have now had their first vaccine dose.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 19, 2021)

N00B said:


> Most recent Exhibit A of “Personal attacks don’t ever add value to a the viewpoint you’re expressing.”


Guilty as charged. As the plumber would say, “well it was teed up so nicely”


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 19, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> This is bad...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Put in perspective. The current uk wave even with yesterday’s spike is still below spring 2020.  Also guess Fauci was right about insisting on the 2 shots instead of just rolling out 1 to everyone. And it’s still confines to mostly the young

on the other hand there’s still the likely possibility in the us of a fall wave particularly unvaccinated areas and question whether the collapse of the j&j vaccine might have been in retrospect a good thing.


----------



## crush (Jun 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> *Guilty as charged*


----------



## crush (Jun 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Put in perspective. The current uk wave even with yesterday’s spike is still below spring 2020.  Also guess Fauci was right about insisting on the 2 shots instead of just rolling out 1 to everyone. And it’s still confines to mostly the young
> 
> on the other hand there’s still the likely possibility in the us of a fall wave particularly* unvaccinated areas* and question whether the collapse of the j&j vaccine might have been in retrospect a good thing.


First, they said everyone needs the shots from Wuhan Bat Lab.  Then they said, "free donuts, $70 gift or a chance to win $1,000,000.  All you have to do is get your damn Wuhan shots, now!!! Then, we have the folks like me and my wife who will always be 100% a big fat, "never!!"  So, we will be left out and labeled rebellious and will not be allowed service, no card, no service.   The same assholes who got all mad in 2016 and cheated big time in 2020 are now demanding two classes like they always have demanded.  Total losers and Karma is taking them out as I speak.  Oh boy, I can;t wait!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Put in perspective. The current uk wave even with yesterday’s spike is still below spring 2020.  Also guess Fauci was right about insisting on the 2 shots instead of just rolling out 1 to everyone. And it’s still confines to mostly the young
> 
> on the other hand there’s still the likely possibility in the us of a fall wave particularly unvaccinated areas and question whether the collapse of the j&j vaccine might have been in retrospect a good thing.


Ps same story playing out in Lisbon which is being put under travel restrictions


----------



## crush (Jun 19, 2021)

Here's the deal.  I think people are second guessing their decision.  This is serious stuff.  I have a dear friend who has been ultra rich and super liberal his whole life.  Trust fund pal and is one of the most generous people I know.  However, he is so scared to die that he got his shots quickly for his family.  His son has experienced headaches and bloody noses the last 30 days after taking his 2nd dose.  Never had these issues before but now is going to a specialist next week.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 19, 2021)

crush said:


> Here's the deal.  I think people are second guessing their decision.  This is serious stuff.  I have a dear friend who has been ultra rich and super liberal his whole life.  Trust fund pal and is one of the most generous people I know.  However, he is so scared to die that he got his shots quickly for his family.  His son has experienced headaches and bloody noses the last 30 days after taking his 2nd dose.  Never had these issues before but now is going to a specialist next week.
> 
> View attachment 11008


That’s not how it works.


----------



## crush (Jun 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> That’s not how it works.


Good morning killer, I see you woke up.  Guilty!!!!


----------



## crush (Jun 19, 2021)

Yikes!!!  I have a feeling in my gut that things are about to get real gnarly.  Delta strain is here to stay and CDC is telling everyone to hurry the hell up and get their shits.  England has some news that will give even more pause of concern.  

LONDON, England, June 18, 2021 (LifeSiteNews) – The* death rate* from the Delta COVID variant is *six times higher* among those who were *fully vaccinated* for two weeks or longer than among those who never received a shot, according to data published by Public Health England on Friday.









						Death rate from variant COVID virus six times higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated, UK health data show - LifeSite
					

Hospitalizations are also higher among thousands of fully vaccinated individuals who test positive for the Delta COVID ‘variant of concern.’




					www.lifesitenews.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 19, 2021)

crush said:


> Yikes!!!  I have a feeling in my gut that things are about to get real gnarly.  Delta strain is here to stay and CDC is telling everyone to hurry the hell up and get their shits.  England has some news that will give even more pause of concern.
> 
> LONDON, England, June 18, 2021 (LifeSiteNews) – The* death rate* from the Delta COVID variant is *six times higher* among those who were *fully vaccinated* for two weeks or longer than among those who never received a shot, according to data published by Public Health England on Friday.
> 
> ...


Maybe they should normalize for age and comorbidities.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> That’s not how it works.


Of which you apparently know nothing of...


----------



## crush (Jun 19, 2021)

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley took a strong stance against the NFL and the NFLPA over the league’s updated COVID-19 protocols, saying he would* rather retire than get vaccinated. *

"I don't play for the money anymore. My family has been taken care of. Fine me if you want.* My way of living and my values are more important to me than a dollar,"* Beasley said in a lengthy statement posted to Twitter Friday. "I will be outside doing what I do. I’ll be out in public. If your [sic] scared of me then steer clear, or get vaccinated ... I may die of covid, but I’d rather die actually living."

Beasley is taking issue with the NFL’s new guidelines for training camp and preseason which heavily restricts unvaccinated players while allowing those who have received the vaccine to return close to normalcy.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 19, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Of which you apparently know nothing of...


Pfizer is apparently 88% effective at preventing Delta from sending you to the hospital.  That is a wonderful thing.  But the other 12% do go to the hospital.  It’s not as simple as “do you trust your shot or don’t you.”.  

It‘s more like a dice game where all the payouts are bad.

You can play the game as written, and accept the consequences.   (early “herd immunity” proposals.)

You can cheat, and use loaded dice.   But you might still get unlucky.   (vaccines)

Or, you can try to shut down the game, because that casino sucks.  (keeping R< 1)


----------



## what-happened (Jun 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Pfizer is apparently 88% effective at preventing Delta from sending you to the hospital.  That is a wonderful thing.  But the other 12% do go to the hospital.  It’s not as simple as “do you trust your shot or don’t you.”.
> 
> It‘s more like a dice game where all the payouts are bad.
> 
> ...


So we vaccinate, mask up, and lock down again until?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 19, 2021)

what-happened said:


> So we vaccinate, mask up, and lock down again until?


Spin the chamber, pull the trigger, roll the dice. Like having unprotected sex many people never experience adverse effects.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 19, 2021)

what-happened said:


> So we vaccinate, mask up, and lock down again until?


Vax alone is probably good enough, if we all do it.  Worst case would be vax+masks.  I don’t see a risk for lockdowns in a fully vaxxed region.

But it makes us safe through herd immunity, not just through individual immunity.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Spin the chamber, pull the trigger, roll the dice. Like having unprotected sex many people never experience adverse effects.


I think at some point (like now), people have to agree that not everyone is going to get vaccinated and deal with it.  The interesting piece will be how it gets dealt with.  

I see where the private sector is going - many large companies are requiring people to provide proof of vaccination via secure portals in return for not wearing masks in company common areas, etc.  Those that do not provide proof of vaccination will have to wear masks in designated areas throughout their place of work.  They are not being mandated to get a vaccine, but will be treated differently if they don't get vaccinated.  It won't go over well and we will see how it plays out.  People are leaving the workforce at a rate never seen before.  Vaccine "encouragement" may accelerate it.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Spin the chamber, pull the trigger, roll the dice. Like having unprotected sex many people never experience adverse effects.


You've clearly picked a side, I get it.  You are not changing your mind and you will not change the minds of those who have an opposite opinion. At this point, cigar, bourbon, and a chair are your friends.


----------



## crush (Jun 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Spin the chamber, pull the trigger, roll the dice. Like having unprotected sex many people never experience adverse effects.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 19, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I think at some point (like now), people have to agree that not everyone is going to get vaccinated and deal with it.  The interesting piece will be how it gets dealt with.
> 
> I see where the private sector is going - many large companies are requiring people to provide proof of vaccination via secure portals in return for not wearing masks in company common areas, etc.  Those that do not provide proof of vaccination will have to wear masks in designated areas throughout their place of work.  They are not being mandated to get a vaccine, but will be treated differently if they don't get vaccinated.  It won't go over well and we will see how it plays out.  People are leaving the workforce at a rate never seen before.  Vaccine "encouragement" may accelerate it.


Schools will likely be the same for the fall


----------



## dad4 (Jun 19, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I think at some point (like now), people have to agree that not everyone is going to get vaccinated and deal with it.  The interesting piece will be how it gets dealt with.
> 
> I see where the private sector is going - many large companies are requiring people to provide proof of vaccination via secure portals in return for not wearing masks in company common areas, etc.  Those that do not provide proof of vaccination will have to wear masks in designated areas throughout their place of work.  They are not being mandated to get a vaccine, but will be treated differently if they don't get vaccinated.  It won't go over well and we will see how it plays out.  People are leaving the workforce at a rate never seen before.  Vaccine "encouragement" may accelerate it.


I am not convinced that the middle of the country will go the differential treatment route.

West coast and northeast will.  But not center and south.  In some states, non vax are the majority.


----------



## espola (Jun 19, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You've clearly picked a side, I get it.  You are not changing your mind and you will not change the minds of those who have an opposite opinion. At this point, cigar, bourbon, and a chair are your friends.


Stop whining.  It's just a little poke and then you get to chat with your new friends for about 15 minutes.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 19, 2021)

A year and a half in and we have an effective “vaccine” but not a commonly used effective treatment?


----------



## espola (Jun 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> A year and a half in and we have an effective “vaccine” but not a commonly used effective treatment?


I don't think a week and a half goes by without someone posting a curative treatment here, along with a soon-to-be-peer-reviewed medical study to back it up.


----------



## crush (Jun 19, 2021)

Bad news for the bad guys?  









						TRUMP TRIUMPH! WE HAVE IT ALL -- MAKE THE DEAL OR DIE
					

https://www.bitchute.com/channel/unrig/ Robert David Steel- MAKE THE DEAL OR YOUR GOING TO DIE. News & Politics EX-CIA OFFICER ROBERT STEELE - NSA READY TO END THE DEEP STATE




					rumble.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 19, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I think at some point (like now), people have to agree that not everyone is going to get vaccinated and deal with it.  The interesting piece will be how it gets dealt with.
> 
> I see where the private sector is going - many large companies are requiring people to provide proof of vaccination via secure portals in return for not wearing masks in company common areas, etc.  Those that do not provide proof of vaccination will have to wear masks in designated areas throughout their place of work.  They are not being mandated to get a vaccine, but will be treated differently if they don't get vaccinated.  It won't go over well and we will see how it plays out.  People are leaving the workforce at a rate never seen before.  Vaccine "encouragement" may accelerate it.


Lots of single parents having trouble. I signed on the dotted line and now can go mask free if I wish. When the doors open I mask up.


----------



## watfly (Jun 19, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I think at some point (like now), people have to agree that not everyone is going to get vaccinated and deal with it.  The interesting piece will be how it gets dealt with.


Tues, Wed, Thurs everyone was feeling out the whole don't need to wear a mask if vaccinated situation.  Friday, Saturday seems like most everyone is all in with not wearing a mask.  Costco and Walmart, no mask required, even a few employees at Costco without masks.  Give it a month and only the last few diehards will be wearing mask in public.  Masks are done and unlikely to see the light of day for a long time.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> Tues, Wed, Thurs everyone was feeling out the whole don't need to wear a mask if vaccinated situation.  Friday, Saturday seems like most everyone is all in with not wearing a mask.  Costco and Walmart, no mask required, even a few employees at Costco without masks.  Give it a month and only the last few diehards will be wearing mask in public.  Masks are done and unlikely to see the light of day for a long time.


Nationally, what do you propose if Delta begins to cause crowded hospitals this fall?  

Masks seems the least bad option.  

The alternatives are lockdowns, mandatory vaccination, and deferral of non-covid medical care.

Which of those do you like better?


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Vax alone is probably good enough, if we all do it.  Worst case would be vax+masks.  I don’t see a risk for lockdowns in a fully vaxxed region.
> 
> But it makes us safe through herd immunity, not just through individual immunity.


Again. . . Complete disregard for those with natural immunity or those who have recovered.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nationally, what do you propose if Delta begins to cause crowded hospitals this fall?
> 
> Masks seems the least bad option.
> 
> ...


Mask don't work, at least the ones that were commonly used...


----------



## espola (Jun 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nationally, what do you propose if Delta begins to cause crowded hospitals this fall?
> 
> Masks seems the least bad option.
> 
> ...


I'm keeping my mask stock near at hand, just in casse.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Schools will likely be the same for the fall


Colleges are already there.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Stop whining.  It's just a little poke and then you get to chat with your new friends for about 15 minutes.


depends on the bourbon


----------



## what-happened (Jun 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Lots of single parents having trouble. I signed on the dotted line and now can go mask free if I wish. When the doors open I mask up.


your right and your choice.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jun 19, 2021)

what-happened said:


> depends on the bourbon


Let’s start the debate with Blanton's. Retort?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 19, 2021)

Multi Sport said:


> Mask don't work, at least the ones that were commonly used...


We’ve been over this, Grace.   It is well established that masks reduce covid transmission from the wearer.  It’s pretty much only you and a few right wing politicians still claiming otherwise.

But, if you don’t like masks, how do you think US should respond if it looks like Delta is going to fill hospitals?

-Mandatory Vaccines?
-Lockdown again?
-Reduce other medical care to make room?

I don’t think there is a fifth option.  If delta ends up filling beds and we don’t pick one, we get the “reduce other medical care” option.


----------



## N00B (Jun 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> how do you think US should respond if it looks like Delta is going to fill hospitals?l


I don’t get the multi-avatar assumptions in this thread or the motivation to do so, if that is a thing outside of Crush or some banned persona.. I am likely wrong given the consensus of accusations.

To your hypothetical delta intervention question, I think you need to rework your model given to the vaccination rate and which vaccinations have been used/protocols followed (emphasize a two dose regimen).

How then are the hospitals being overun with this variant, thus requiring the proposed interventions?


----------



## crush (Jun 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *-Mandatory Vaccines?
> -Lockdown again?
> -Reduce other medical care to make room?
> 
> I don’t think there is a fifth option.*


Never!!!  You will have to find me and then catch me before I ever take those shots.  GFUUPOD!!!!


----------



## dad4 (Jun 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> I don’t get the multi-avatar assumptions in this thread or the motivation to do so, if that is a thing outside of Crush or some banned persona.. I am likely wrong given the consensus of accusations.
> 
> To your hypothetical delta intervention question, I think you need to rework your model given to the vaccination rate and which vaccinations have been used/protocols followed (emphasize a two dose regimen).
> 
> How then are the hospitals being overun with this variant, thus requiring the proposed interventions?


Delta is growing in the US now, despite current immunity levels.  So, a 70%-75% immunity level is not quite enough, even in summer.  (Getting to 70-75 by combining natural and vaccine immunity.)

The big unknown is how many people are able to get Delta.  Delta has some ability to reinfect people who have natural immunity.  We just don’t know how often it happens.

If natural immunity is 90% effective against Delta, we are mostly fine.   If natural immunity is 35% effective against Delta, we have a problem.


----------



## crush (Jun 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *Delta is growing in the US now*, despite current immunity levels.  So, a 70%-75% immunity level is not quite enough, even in summer.  (Getting to 70-75 by combining natural and vaccine immunity.)
> 
> The big unknown is how many people are able to get* Delta.* *Delta *has some ability to reinfect people who have natural immunity.  We just don’t know how often it happens.
> 
> If natural immunity is 90% effective against *Delta*, we are mostly fine.   If natural immunity is 35% effective against *Delta*, we have a problem.


Keep grabbing straws dad of 4


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Delta is growing in the US now, despite current immunity levels.  So, a 70%-75% immunity level is not quite enough, even in summer.  (Getting to 70-75 by combining natural and vaccine immunity.)
> 
> The big unknown is how many people are able to get Delta.  Delta has some ability to reinfect people who have natural immunity.  We just don’t know how often it happens.
> 
> If natural immunity is 90% effective against Delta, we are mostly fine.   If natural immunity is 35% effective against Delta, we have a problem.


Agree with his assessment here. Possible if things continue as they are we may even have a summer outbreak particularly in the indoor heavy states by end of summer (just in time for schools to go back). Where we disagree is the prescription...deaths will be equivalent to somewhere between a really bad rsv season-bad flu season. We don’t do npis every time that happens.  Unless that’s the plan going forward every bad winter (and I suspect it is his plan because dad4 always ducks the question) I don’t see the need particularly as those people have made their choice.


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 20, 2021)

[QUOTE="dad4, post: 397460, member: 6565" been over this, Grace.   It is well established that masks reduce covid transmission from the wearer.  It’s pretty much only you and a few right wing politicians still claiming otherwise.

But, if you don’t like masks, how do you think US should respond if it looks like Delta is going to fill hospitals?

-Mandatory Vaccines?
-Lockdown again?
-Reduce other medical care to make room?

I don’t think there is a fifth option.  If delta ends up filling beds and we don’t pick one, we get the “reduce other medical care” option.
[/QUOTE]
A. I'm not Grace. 

B. I'm not the only one who believes mask are ineffective.  Fauci believes this as well. He's not a right wing politician. 

C. I have personal experience that taught me that mask are ineffective so I don't have to rely on a politically motivated study.

D. I have family in the medical world who also do not believe these mask are effective.

E. I have a respirator that I occasionally use for work. If you want to use one of those then I will agree that those can be very useful. 

F. Since I have been off this forum for nearly a year I have no idea what has been discussed. 

G. Just because it's been discussed in here and decided upon in this all knowing forum , has no bearing on real life, especially  mine.

Peace out Wez...


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 20, 2021)

Interesting article about the Fauci emails:

-Trump seems to have gotten the idea it would go away from Fauci
-They knew the 2 weeks thing was a lie
-The lockdowns were never about saving hospital capacity (which as we now see from India, Indonesia and the Czech Republic is what they should have been about)
-Fauci didn't understand that the virus spreads through any human contact and that the factories, food production, supermarkets and pharmacies had to keep going.  As soon as they lifted the restrictions the R would jump again, so it wasn't possible to get rid of the virus by locking down unless you were going to lockdown in perpetuity until you got a vaccine.









						Anthony Fauci's Shockingly Obtuse E-Mails to Michael Gerson
					

The email dump of Dr. Anthony Fauci’s correspondence is a treasure trove of insight. Don’t rely on the major media to explain what’s in it, however. Reporters hardly have time to dig




					www.realclearmarkets.com


----------



## Multi Sport (Jun 20, 2021)

N00B said:


> I don’t get the multi-avatar assumptions in this thread or the motivation to do so, if that is a thing outside of Crush or some banned persona.. I am likely wrong given the consensus of accusations.
> 
> [/QUOQUOTETorros is an occasional poster. I know of him through a mutual friend, though I don't kmow his identity,  he knows who I am. Through our mutual friend Torros let me know that most of the posters on who are active in the off topic area have multiple avatars... some even have three or four. How foes he know? I guess he works for some high tech cyber company.  He posted once about how you should use a VPN  to post in here to protect yourself. A poster on here once went after Torros and got personal with him... next thing you know Torros asked the guy if the company he worked(he posted the company's name)for knows how he acts online. It made for a quick apology...
> 
> ...


----------



## crush (Jun 20, 2021)

It's starting to heat up again.  When cheaters have their backs to the wall they either give up or go out with a bang.  I had no idea how deep all this crap went.  I know for a FACT people would use fake accounts to "hide" their true self and go off on people they hated or disliked.  I was one of the unlucky ones back in the day.  People liked to poke at me because I was a little cocky and had a real good player who could score goals when she was 12.  Anyway, it got real ugly with a few asshats that PM me.  Lawyers with kids in the game and in high places.  Threats of all sorts and for sure black listed if I club hop too much I was warned.  I have it all.  I even have text by liar Doc and his access to this and that with soccer.  I think it's about time I leave as well.  Some people Pm me and told me they wish I was never adopted and all that evil.  Happy Fathers Day to all......


----------



## crush (Jun 20, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Jun 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interesting article about the Fauci emails:
> 
> -Trump seems to have gotten the idea it would go away from Fauci
> -They knew the 2 weeks thing was a lie
> ...


If you want to see a conspiracy, there is evidence everywhere.

None of it strikes me as convincing.  My base assumption is that no one knew much on Mar 02, 2020.  This seems far more credible than the article‘s implication that "Fauci knew it all back then, but he lied to us."


----------



## espola (Jun 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you want to see a conspiracy, there is evidence everywhere.
> 
> None of it strikes me as convincing.  My base assumption is that no one knew much on Mar 02, 2020.  This seems far more credible than the article‘s implication that "Fauci knew it all back then, but he lied to us."


One thing we have learned in the past year or so is the overwhelming power of confirmation bias.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you want to see a conspiracy, there is evidence everywhere.
> 
> None of it strikes me as convincing.  My base assumption is that no one knew much on Mar 02, 2020.  This seems far more credible than the article‘s implication that "Fauci knew it all back then, but he lied to us."


To be fair, the lie the article pins on fauci is the hospital capacity (and also the 2 weeks but fauci seems to have believed it would be short so unclear how much of a lie this one was). The rest of the article painted fauci as just not having a clue what was happening.

and as for others not knowing, I called it pretty  accurately. More accurately than fauci. Even told my kids school they should prepare for a year long shut down but the elementary school might be spared in the fall. I nailed it within a few weeks. Business too. So no it wasn’t impossible to know what would happen.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 20, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> Let’s start the debate with Blanton's. Retort?


Old Fitzgerald


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 20, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Old Fitzgerald


Both too rich for my blood, Angels Envy.


----------



## watfly (Jun 20, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Nationally, what do you propose if Delta begins to cause crowded hospitals this fall?
> 
> Masks seems the least bad option.
> 
> ...


It's like asking me what would I do if pigs fly...I'll worry about it when it happens.

Anything that would be proposed that includes any of the above would be met with a ton of resistance.   Odds of compliance are is slim to none, which are the same odds of the Delta variant overwhelming hospitals.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 20, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> Let’s start the debate with Blanton's. Retort?


Well, can't go wrong with Blanton's.  If you are bringing it, I'm sipping it.  Have been leaning on Colorado Small Batch whiskey lately - check out Stranahan's.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 20, 2021)

watfly said:


> It's like asking me what would I do if pigs fly...I'll worry about it when it happens.
> 
> Anything that would be proposed that includes any of the above would be met with a ton of resistance.   Odds of compliance are is slim to none, which are the same odds of the Delta variant overwhelming hospitals.


Got it.  You chose care rationing.  Same as last time.

Every other option requires acting before the crisis hits.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jun 20, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Both too rich for my blood, Angels Envy.


They make a great rye.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 21, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Both too rich for my blood, Angels Envy.


Solid choice….if you can find Henry McKenna 10yr (don’t pay more than $60) or Buffalo Trace is always a great go to.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Got it.  You chose care rationing.  Same as last time.
> 
> Every other option requires acting before the crisis hits.


Are you factoring in any developments of effective treatments?  I mean, we came up with a vaccine that has an 88% effective rate agains these new variants but we can’t come up with an effective treatment?


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Are you factoring in any developments of effective treatments?  I mean, we came up with a vaccine that has an 88% effective rate agains these new variants but we can’t come up with an effective treatment?


Would this forum be better if Dominic banned rhetorical questions?


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Would this forum be better if Dominic banned rhetorical questions?


Then he would have banned you years ago.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Are you factoring in any developments of effective treatments?  I mean, we came up with a vaccine that has an 88% effective rate agains these new variants but we can’t come up with an effective treatment?


What effective treatments?  We don’t have much for colds or the flu.  Why should I expect a post-infection covid pill any time soon?

I think we are lucky to have the vaccines.   We’ll probably have a booster before we have a good treatment.


----------



## watfly (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Got it.  You chose care rationing.  Same as last time.
> 
> Every other option requires acting before the crisis hits.


Wrong on both accounts.  Vaccines are available to anyone that wants one, which is the opposite of care rationing.  The vaccine is already the option before the crisis hits, which will likely never occur.  The crisis is purely hypothetical, created by Team "Doom and Gloom"

If you're unvaccinated and want to wear a mask, more power to you.  No reason, other than virtue signaling to wear a mask if you're vaccinated.   I have no power to require you to get a vaccination, as you have no power to require me to wear a mask to protect you if you chose not to be vaccinated.  It's a pretty straight forward equation.


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Wrong on both accounts.  Vaccines are available to anyone that wants one, which is the opposite of care rationing.  The vaccine is already the option before the crisis hits, which will likely never occur.  The crisis is purely hypothetical, created by Team "Doom and Gloom"
> 
> If you're unvaccinated and want to wear a mask, more power to you.  No reason, other than virtue signaling to wear a mask if you're vaccinated.   I have no power to require you to get a vaccination, as you have no power to require me to wear a mask to protect you if you chose not to be vaccinated.  It's a pretty straight forward equation.


Is virtue signaling a bad thing?

(and that is not a rhetorical question - I would like to know your opinion)


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> Wrong on both accounts.  Vaccines are available to anyone that wants one, which is the opposite of care rationing.  The vaccine is already the option before the crisis hits, which will likely never occur.  The crisis is purely hypothetical, created by Team "Doom and Gloom"
> 
> If you're unvaccinated and want to wear a mask, more power to you.  No reason, other than virtue signaling to wear a mask if you're vaccinated.   I have no power to require you to get a vaccination, as you have no power to require me to wear a mask to protect you if you chose not to be vaccinated.  It's a pretty straight forward equation.


Sounds familiar.  

Last April you told us that covid was purely theoretical, and we did not need to worry about it.

That theoretical risk killed a half million people.  Would it hurt too much to pay some attention to the next theoretical risk?  Maybe get ahead of the game so we can handle it with masks and vaccines instead of lockdowns and care rationing?

Or do we have to wait until it is over so that Team Virus can argue it was all inevitable?


----------



## what-happened (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Is virtue signaling a bad thing?
> 
> (and that is not a rhetorical question - I would like to know your opinion)


Mainly yes - corporate America and Hollywood have made sure that virtue signaling means more fluffy talk, less action.


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sounds familiar.
> 
> Last April you told us that covid was purely theoretical, and we did not need to worry about it.
> 
> ...


Speaking of last April (I assume you meant April 2000) there is a new book out by Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta: "Nightmare Scenario: Inside the Trump Administration's Response to the Pandemic That Changed History".  The authors are Washington Post reporters who were assigned to report on the pandemic from the beginning.  I'm tempted to read it, except that I think I already know what most of it is about.


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Mainly yes - corporate America and Hollywood have made sure that virtue signaling means more fluffy talk, less action.


If wearing masks in public is "virtue signaling" (as suggested by an earlier poster), that is action without talking.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jun 21, 2021)

This was an interesting first-person POV about recovering from long-haul covid. She fully admits she was able to do so since she was fairly financially priviledged. Makes you wonder how those not so priviledged, (AKA as lower-wage workers,) will be able to handle this without some government support:









						I rested my way to recovery from ‘long-haul Covid’. I urge others to do the same | Fiona Lowenstein
					

Rest and pacing, rather than graded exercise, seem the most effective treatments to prescribe widely to long Covid patients




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## what-happened (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> If wearing masks in public is "virtue signaling" (as suggested by an earlier poster), that is action without talking.


Well, I can barely understand anyone talking with a mask, so there is that.  Isn't it interesting how the narrative of the mask has put people in two different camps.  Both sides virtue signal - solidarity, both sides claiming science.  Quite silly and time wasting.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Well, I can barely understand anyone talking with a mask, so there is that.  Isn't it interesting how the narrative of the mask has put people in two different camps.  Both sides virtue signal - solidarity, both sides claiming science.  Quite silly and time wasting.


The phrase ”virtue signalling” has never been part of a serious discussion.  It is a generic insult for anyone doing something which they believe to be the right thing.

The open question at the moment is whether Delta or other variants pose a risk this winter.  Almost no one from the anti-lockdown side wants to consider the possibility.  We’re so happy getting rid of the masks that we are making ourselves incapable of being ready to deal with a problem if it shows up.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The phrase ”virtue signalling” has never been part of a serious discussion.  It is a generic insult for anyone doing something which they believe to be the right thing.
> 
> The open question at the moment is whether Delta or other variants pose a risk this winter.  Almost no one from the anti-lockdown side wants to consider the possibility.  We’re so happy getting rid of the masks that we are making ourselves incapable of being ready to deal with a problem if it shows up.


This again begs the question of whether you expect everyone to do the same thing every time a more than mild flu season or RSV epidemic pops up. It's interesting you use the words "a risk" instead of something like "substantial risk" because it points to you not being comfortable with any risk

I was in line at a fish place this weekend.  Open air, ocean breeze, people 6 feet apart.  Guy in front of me got all nervous when I got in line without a mask behind him.  That's just irrational fear.  At one point a guy without a mask and with a USA tattoo made his way across the line to get to the crab tank and pick up his meal.  Masked guy in front of me muttered "all these damned maskless Republicans".


----------



## what-happened (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The phrase ”virtue signalling” has never been part of a serious discussion.  It is a generic insult for anyone doing something which they believe to be the right thing.
> 
> The open question at the moment is whether Delta or other variants pose a risk this winter.  Almost no one from the anti-lockdown side wants to consider the possibility.  We’re so happy getting rid of the masks that we are making ourselves incapable of being ready to deal with a problem if it shows up.


You are pretty sure your opinion is the correct one.  That's pretty much the problem today.

It's not a generic insult, it's a phenomenon that is easily observed.  Corporate America, Hollywood, celebrity athletes are not pious with their intent, whether it be supporting wearing masks/not wearing masks or supporting entities that on the surface appear to champion a cause.

Science has taken a back seat to narrative building and political hackery.


----------



## watfly (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sounds familiar.
> 
> Last April you told us that covid was purely theoretical, and we did not need to worry about it.
> 
> ...


You know that is patently false and a complete mischaracterization of what I've said.  I never ever said it was theoretical.  I always said that it was serious, I questioned the doom and gloom projections (and the restrictions based on such), which in fact have not come to fruition.  I vehemently disputed the burden put on our children and I will continue to do so.   There will be administrators getting an earful from me if masks are required by students this fall.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> You know that is patently false and a complete mischaracterization of what I've said.  I never ever said it was theoretical.  I always said that it was serious, I questioned the doom and gloom projections (and the restrictions based on such), which in fact have not come to fruition.  I vehemently disputed the burden put on our children and I will continue to do so.   There will be administrators getting an earful from me if masks are required by students this fall.


At least in Los Angeles it seems the way things are shaking up so far is the vaccinated will not need to wear a mask but the unvaccinated (including kids too young for the vaccine) will.  Still nothing decided yet though.


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This again begs the question of whether you expect everyone to do the same thing every time a more than mild flu season or RSV epidemic pops up. It's interesting you use the words "a risk" instead of something like "substantial risk" because it points to you not being comfortable with any risk
> 
> I was in line at a fish place this weekend.  Open air, ocean breeze, people 6 feet apart.  Guy in front of me got all nervous when I got in line without a mask behind him.  That's just irrational fear.  At one point a guy without a mask and with a USA tattoo made his way across the line to get to the crab tank and pick up his meal.  Masked guy in front of me muttered "all these damned maskless Republicans".


You have such fantastic adventures!


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You are pretty sure your opinion is the correct one.  That's pretty much the problem today.
> 
> It's not a generic insult, it's a phenomenon that is easily observed.  Corporate America, Hollywood, celebrity athletes are not pious with their intent, whether it be supporting wearing masks/not wearing masks or supporting entities that on the surface appear to champion a cause.
> 
> Science has taken a back seat to narrative building and political hackery.


q.e.d.


----------



## watfly (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> At least in Los Angeles it seems the way things are shaking up so far is the vaccinated will not need to wear a mask but the unvaccinated (including kids too young for the vaccine) will.  Still nothing decided yet though.


While I think any mask requirement for students is gross overkill and the negative impacts outweigh the benefits, I could live with a mask requirement for the unvaccinated for those that are eligible for vaccination (but only if the virus is around at a level that is above nominal).  Making those who are too young to get a vaccination wear a mask is criminal.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> You have such fantastic adventures!


Sad life you lead if that's a fantastic adventure.


----------



## watfly (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Is virtue signaling a bad thing?
> 
> (and that is not a rhetorical question - I would like to know your opinion)


Generally yes, because it oftentimes takes emphasis away from substantive measures that work.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> q.e.d.


fancy


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Sad life you lead if that's a fantastic adventure.


I will advance the possibility that I used "fantastic" in a different sense than you read it.  

One of the miserable effects of the t years is that many words have been reduced to meaningless spaceholders.


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> While I think any mask requirement for students is gross overkill and the negative impacts outweigh the benefits, I could live with a mask requirement for the unvaccinated for those that are eligible for vaccination (but only if the virus is around at a level that is above nominal).  Making those who are too young to get a vaccination wear a mask is criminal.


"Criminal"?  Isn't that a little vehement?


----------



## watfly (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> "Criminal"?  Isn't that a little vehement?


I will advance the possibility that I used "criminal" in a different sense than you read it.

One of the miserable effects of the t years is that many words have been reduced to meaningless spaceholders.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

Whatever happened to cost/benefit analysis?

If experts tell us that masks ( whether of everyone or just unvax) can avoid 100k deaths, then we should put them on this fall and stop complaining.  The cost is zero and the expected benefit is positive.

Your overblown talk of "if they make my kid wear one..."  is just ridiculous.  If asked to help, STFU and do your part to help.


----------



## watfly (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Whatever happened to cost/benefit analysis?
> 
> If experts tell us that masks ( whether of everyone or just unvax) can avoid 100k deaths, then we should put them on this fall and stop complaining.  The cost is zero and the expected benefit is positive.
> 
> Your overblown talk of "if they make my kid wear one..."  is just ridiculous.  If asked to help, STFU and do your part to help.


The irrational fears of adults shouldn't be the burden of children.  STFU and stop making children bear your burdens.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

watfly said:


> The irrational fears of adults shouldn't be the burden of children.  STFU and stop making children bear your burdens.


My burden?

We've had 600k people die so far, but I promise you I was not one of them.

And why do you call it irrational?  We have had over 600k deaths.  The possibility of another 100k deaths is not at all unreasonable.


----------



## watfly (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> My burden?
> 
> We've had 600k people die so far, but I promise you I was not one of them.
> 
> And why do you call it irrational?  We have had over 600k deaths.  The possibility of another 100k deaths is not at all unreasonable.


Unmasking those under 12 is not going to add 100,000 Covid deaths, you're full of crap.  Neither is unmasking the vaccinated.  You need to nut up and deal with your fears, instead of projecting your fears on everyone else's behavior.  Talk about selfish.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Whatever happened to cost/benefit analysis?
> 
> If experts tell us that masks ( whether of everyone or just unvax) can avoid 100k deaths, then we should put them on this fall and stop complaining.  The cost is zero and the expected benefit is positive.
> 
> Your overblown talk of "if they make my kid wear one..."  is just ridiculous.  If asked to help, STFU and do your part to help.


The cost isn't zero.  If you've looked at any park in Los Angeles and seen the masks strewn about that's pretty self-evident.   They don't degrade readily.  There is a cost to manufacture them and they aren't free.  There are also social and psychological costs, especially what we are doing to children.  So if you are going to claim cost/benefit, don't claim zero costs.  The "STFU" is nice talk from the guy always decrying the incivility of personal attacks.









						Coronavirus face masks: an environmental disaster that might last generations
					

As face marks and coverings become compulsory worldwide, littering and their potential impact on the environment increases.




					theconversation.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The possibility of another 100k deaths is not at all unreasonable.


So a bad flu season???


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> I will advance the possibility that I used "fantastic" in a different sense than you read it.
> 
> One of the miserable effects of the t years is that many words have been reduced to meaningless spaceholders.



Ah, I see...you used it in the sense as one might, for example describe your entire thought process.   Got it.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The cost isn't zero.  If you've looked at any park in Los Angeles and seen the masks strewn about that's pretty self-evident.   They don't degrade readily.  There is a cost to manufacture them and they aren't free.  There are also social and psychological costs, especially what we are doing to children.  So if you are going to claim cost/benefit, don't claim zero costs.  The "STFU" is nice talk from the guy always decrying the incivility of personal attacks.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


As I recall California banned plastic bags and at the time we were told there was an enormous environmental cost that required this immediately (as opposed to just telling consumers hey maybe not the best idea).....









						Face masks and the environment: Preventing the next plastic problem
					

Every minute of the day we throw away 3 million face masks. Many end up as potentially toxic micro- and nanoplastic or carriers for other toxicants in the environment, researchers warn.



					www.sciencedaily.com


----------



## watfly (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The "STFU" is nice talk from the guy always decrying the incivility of personal attacks.


In his defense STFU is the left's default response to an opposing opinion.  I was responding in kind which doesn't justify my response.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So a bad flu season???


We do occasionally have extra measures for bad flu seasons.  

I don't know whether we will have to do anything this fall.   It may be that enough of us got vaccinated or recovered that Delta goes nowhere. 

But, if asked to put on a mask, we should each do our part and not second guess it.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We do occasionally have extra measures for bad flu seasons.
> 
> I don't know whether we will have to do anything this fall.   It may be that enough of us got vaccinated or recovered that Delta goes nowhere.
> 
> But, if asked to put on a mask, we should each do our part and not second guess it.


we have not, at least in my life time, had a state mask mandate for a bad flu season, despite several that have made their way through

so either we are forced to conclude: a) you believe when we have such bad flu seasons it’s a good idea to have a mask mandate or b) you’ve back tracked and now your argument is an appeal to authority (I.e., defer to experts who may ask for it)

If 2) no thanks...your experts have proven horrible at this.  They’ve destroyed whatever trust and goodwill they began this with.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> we have not, at least in my life time, had a state mask mandate for a bad flu season, despite several that have made their way through
> 
> so either we are forced to conclude: a) you believe when we have such bad flu seasons it’s a good idea to have a mask mandate or b) you’ve back tracked and now your argument is an appeal to authority (I.e., defer to experts who may ask for it)
> 
> If 2) no thanks...your experts have proven horrible at this.  They’ve destroyed whatever trust and goodwill they began this with.


You can drop the appeal to authority if you like.  I’d have no trouble wearing a mask if the flu season was likely to cause 100K deaths.  It’s just a mask, and I’m not a big fan of the flu.

What trust and goodwill?  The right have been second guessing and sniping against public health measures ever since March of 2020.  They started with anti-mask protests, moved on to indoor rallies in Tulsa, and began the next year with maskless legislators spreading covid in the capitol.  When was this “trust and goodwill” period of which you speak?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You can drop the appeal to authority if you like.  I’d have no trouble wearing a mask if the flu season was likely to cause 100K deaths.  It’s just a mask, and I’m not a big fan of the flu.
> 
> What trust and goodwill?  The right have been second guessing and sniping against public health measures ever since March of 2020.  They started with anti-mask protests, moved on to indoor rallies in Tulsa, and began the next year with maskless legislators spreading covid in the capitol.  When was this “trust and goodwill” period of which you speak?


It started to go out the window when we were assured it wasn't a significant problem in February 2020 (sure you can ascribe it to China lied, but some of us knew what was coming).  Then when they flipped flopped on the mask thing.  Then when they said the BLM protests were essential and more important than the lockdowns (but worship wasn't).  Yeah, I know it's hard to accept that the public health authorities have been botching this from the beginning....some of it can be ascribed to the fog of war, some of it to just not knowing what we know now, and some of it to the Chinese lying.....but in the end, they largely did it to themselves.

So where is your number on the mask thing?  A bad RSV year qualify too....kills 100-200 kids annually, thousands of adults, hospitalizes 15,000...where do you draw your line?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It started to go out the window when we were assured it wasn't a significant problem in February 2020 (sure you can ascribe it to China lied, but some of us knew what was coming).  Then when they flipped flopped on the mask thing.  Then when they said the BLM protests were essential and more important than the lockdowns (but worship wasn't).  Yeah, I know it's hard to accept that the public health authorities have been botching this from the beginning....some of it can be ascribed to the fog of war, some of it to just not knowing what we know now, and some of it to the Chinese lying.....but in the end, they largely did it to themselves.


Normal errors during a crisis.  Hard to stomach, but also hard to avoid.

What nationally recognized group had better advice at the time?  ( Equivalently, do you propose we follow next time?  Or do we act like cats?  )

The main contrarian view was Trump and his media.  Trump was encouraging us all to believe it was a minor blip.  Had we followed his advice, we would have had last winter’s surge around May of 2020.  At the time, we had no good treatments, no masks, and no vaccines.  It would have been a lot worse.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Normal errors during a crisis.  Hard to stomach, but also hard to avoid.
> 
> What nationally recognized group had better advice at the time?  ( Equivalently, do you propose we follow next time?  Or do we act like cats?  )
> 
> The main contrarian view was Trump and his media.  Trump was encouraging us all to believe it was a minor blip.  Had we followed his advice, we would have had last winter’s surge around May of 2020.  At the time, we had no good treatments, no masks, and no vaccines.  It would have been a lot worse.


From the Fauci email (see articles above) it's pretty clear Trump was being encouraged in that belief by Fauci.

You yourself have acknowledged seasonality is a big factor.  Given the panic (which created self imposed distancing measures), the variant at the time, and seasonality, it was unlikely to have been particularly bad or moved things up any time prior to the fall of 2020.  One of your mistaken beliefs is that restrictive measures are possible in perpetuity.  They should have been saved for moments when the hospital systems were in fact in danger of collapse.

You are fine to argue that normal errors occur during a crisis and that they are avoidable....but that's pretty hard to reconcile with the notion that we should also just give up our own thinking and defer to the experts making these errors.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> From the Fauci email (see articles above) it's pretty clear Trump was being encouraged in that belief by Fauci.
> 
> You yourself have acknowledged seasonality is a big factor.  Given the panic (which created self imposed distancing measures), the variant at the time, and seasonality, it was unlikely to have been particularly bad or moved things up any time prior to the fall of 2020.  One of your mistaken beliefs is that restrictive measures are possible in perpetuity.  They should have been saved for moments when the hospital systems were in fact in danger of collapse.
> 
> You are fine to argue that normal errors occur during a crisis and that they are avoidable....but that's pretty hard to reconcile with the notion that we should also just give up our own thinking and defer to the experts making these errors.


I don't mind people asking "why did it take CDC so long to recommend going outside?".   

I find it helpful when people say "here are five respected studies about the risks of indoor air.  Maybe we should change the rules."

I object when people say "the CDC has no credibility.  I will do whatever I want.". 

Most of the criticism here falls into that self indulgent third bucket.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't mind people asking "why did it take CDC so long to recommend going outside?".
> 
> I find it helpful when people say "here are five respected studies about the risks of indoor air.  Maybe we should change the rules."
> 
> ...


No, and that's where you have always fundamentally misunderstood things.  The proper framing is: "The CDC has torched its credibility.  We need to think through things and question what the experts are telling us."  Otherwise you get the list of experts failures including the Iraq war, the 2008 financial crisis, and the rona.  What's really funny is the experts and science may have created this mess to begin with, and you want us to blindly trust them notwithstanding that.


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

Today's mask survey --

At Albertson's pharmacy, the staff was all masked, and none of the customers were except the family (mom and two kids) signing up for vaccinations.   At Dollar Tree, the staff was masked and customers were not.  At the Alpine LIbrary, masks were required even for those vaccinated because it is designated as one of the County's Cool Zones.  I pulled the mask out of my back pocket to comply, but one of the ear loops broke so I had to go back to the car to get a new one.  At Walmart, the staff was all masked except for the guy in the doorway leading back to the auto service department, and the customers were divided.

My wife says I should always wear a mask when out in public even though I am vaccinated because I am doubly compromised.


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No, and that's where you have always fundamentally misunderstood things.  The proper framing is: "The CDC has torched its credibility.  We need to think through things and question what the experts are telling us."  Otherwise you get the list of experts failures including the Iraq war, the 2008 financial crisis, and the rona.  What's really funny is the experts and science may have created this mess to begin with, and you want us to blindly trust them notwithstanding that.


Is this what you meant by your more aggressive persona?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Today's mask survey --
> 
> At Albertson's pharmacy, the staff was all masked, and none of the customers were except the family (mom and two kids) signing up for vaccinations.   At Dollar Tree, the staff was masked and customers were not.  At the Alpine LIbrary, masks were required even for those vaccinated because it is designated as one of the County's Cool Zones.  I pulled the mask out of my back pocket to comply, but one of the ear loops broke so I had to go back to the car to get a new one.  At Walmart, the staff was all masked except for the guy in the doorway leading back to the auto service department, and the customers were divided.
> 
> My wife says I should always wear a mask when out in public even though I am vaccinated because I am doubly compromised.


WalMart up here over 95% still masked.  

It felt weird to be the only one without one, so I put mine back on.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> WalMart up here over 95% still masked.
> 
> It felt weird to be the only one without one, so I put mine back on.


So, in the end, virtue signalling.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 21, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Solid choice….if you can find Henry McKenna 10yr (don’t pay more than $60) or Buffalo Trace is always a great go to.


Buffalo Trace and Eagle Rare are apart of my standard stock.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> At least in Los Angeles it seems the way things are shaking up so far is the vaccinated will not need to wear a mask but the unvaccinated (including kids too young for the vaccine) will.  Still nothing decided yet though.


Those wanting in class higher education may need to vaccinate or be relegated to zoom  classes.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Sad life you lead if that's a fantastic adventure.


A story telling jerk, how trumpian of you.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> A story telling jerk, how trumpian of you.



Haha...you are putting me up against espola and I'm the story teller.  That's hilarious....or maybe I should say coocoo.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Haha...you are putting me up against espola and I'm the story teller.  That's hilarious....or maybe I should say coocoo.


Story teller is a euphemism for liar.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Story teller is a euphemism for liar.


Better to be an accused liar than a self-evident ass such as yourself.


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Haha...you are putting me up against espola and I'm the story teller.  That's hilarious....or maybe I should say coocoo.


Which of my "stories" don't you believe?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 21, 2021)

espola said:


> If wearing masks in public is "virtue signaling" (as suggested by an earlier poster), that is action without talking.


I am in Whole Foods this weekend. I estimate 80-90% of the people are wearing masks. In SC County, the % of 12 year-old plus who aren't fully vaccinated is under 19% and likely considerably less where I am. I didn't wear my mask and didn't notice anyone disapproving. This morning I am riding my bike out on a wide gravel service road trail. I see 7 "sets" of 1 or 2 people walking over a 15-minute interval of riding. 4 sets had masks on, and another that had a person that put on a mask as I approached. Then it hit me. Occam's razor. It's fear. That's all it is, fear. It's what drove many to willingly sacrifice their/our children's well-being when science didn't support the actions taken. Science was fine when it supported their fears, but not so much now.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So, in the end, virtue signalling.


What?  It is not virtue signaling.  It is simply basic manners.  If you walk into a room and everyone has removed their hat, you remove your hat.

You don't lecture them about why removal of hats is not necessary.  You just take off your hat, because that is the social norm.

I wore my mask at WalMart because that was the norm.  That is all.  

I skipped my mask at practice, because we all are vaccinated and that was the norm there.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What?  It is not virtue signaling.  It is simply basic manners.  If you walk into a room and everyone has removed their hat, you remove your hat.
> 
> You don't lecture them about why removal of hats is not necessary.  You just take off your hat, because that is the social norm.
> 
> ...


As our teachers used to say: “if everyone jumped off the cliff would you???”   Come on...surely you’ve used that one.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I skipped my mask at practice, because we all are vaccinated and that was the norm there.


Did everyone show their vaccine card?


----------



## espola (Jun 21, 2021)

This existential goalkeeper reminds me of covid precaution resistors --









						Dostoyevsky Find Other Employment
					

A philosophy webcomic about the inevitable anguish of living a brief life in an absurd world. Also Jokes




					existentialcomics.com
				




"I must rebel to prove that I am free"


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Did everyone show their vaccine card?


Cards can be faked.  We hired a lab to verify antibody response in the blood samples.  All part of team fees.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As our teachers used to say: “if everyone jumped off the cliff would you???”   Come on...surely you’ve used that one.


www.xkcd.com/1170


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Cards can be faked.  We hired a lab to verify antibody response in the blood samples.  All part of team fees.


Next level.


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What?  It is not virtue signaling.  It is simply basic manners.  If you walk into a room and everyone has removed their hat, you remove your hat.
> 
> You don't lecture them about why removal of hats is not necessary.  You just take off your hat, because that is the social norm.
> 
> ...


Wearing unneeded masks is not normal behavior.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's interesting you use the words "a risk" instead of something like "substantial risk" because it points to you not being comfortable with any risk


You forget. Just a few weeks ago he admitted he had a phobia about the whole thing.

Phobia? Religion? You won't convince either.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 22, 2021)

“We fail to find that shelter-in-place policies saved lives,” the authors report. Indeed, they conclude that in the weeks following the implementation of these policies, excess mortality actually increases—even though it had typically been declining before the orders took effect. And across all countries, the study finds that a one-week increase in the length of stay-at-home policies corresponds with 2.7 more excess deaths per 100,000 people.

The lockdowns simply didn’t work.





__





						We Just Got Even More Proof that Stay-At-Home Orders Lethally Backfired | Brad Polumbo
					

There is tremendous resistance to acknowledging the fact that the sacrifice we all, to varying extents, endured evidently accomplished nothing—and may have even left us worse off.  But this study makes it difficult to deny.



					fee.org


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 22, 2021)




----------



## texanincali (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Whatever happened to cost/benefit analysis?
> 
> If experts tell us that masks ( whether of everyone or just unvax) can avoid 100k deaths, then we should put them on this fall and stop complaining.  The cost is zero and the expected benefit is positive.
> 
> Your overblown talk of "if they make my kid wear one..."  is just ridiculous.  If asked to help, STFU and do your part to help.


I really appreciate the way you post and I admire that you stay true to your convictions, but your statement above is literally the definition of virtue signaling.

It is entirely contradictory to your stance of “if we can avoid xxx amount of deaths.” I’ve attempted to engage you and others before on masks because I am confused as to the sudden need.

What confuses me is why you and others haven’t made a stance for masks if they can save xxx amount of flu deaths.  I am confused how our experts can just now come to the conclusion that masks prevent or even drastically reduce the spread of any virus when they have been around for decades.  I am confused as to why these experts haven’t been called out for being complicit in past deaths caused by viruses that could have been prevented by a simple piece of cloth over a nose and mouth.

I don’t know the reason you and people that share your belief have chosen this virus to make a stand on. In a world where we like to say “if we can save just one life...”, why is it acceptable to watch people die every year from something that is supposedly preventable.

It simply doesn’t add up and points to virtue signaling if for no other reason that this seems to be the only virus we try and save people from.


----------



## texanincali (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What?  It is not virtue signaling.  It is simply basic manners.  If you walk into a room and everyone has removed their hat, you remove your hat.
> 
> You don't lecture them about why removal of hats is not necessary.  You just take off your hat, because that is the social norm.
> 
> ...


I promise, I’m not coming after you, but I can’t let this go.

Slavery was a social norm in parts of the world, genitalia mutilation is a social norm in parts of the world..:there are/have been many social norms that just aren’t right.  Making decisions around whether or not you will be ridiculed, chastised or singled out is nothing more than a fear of not fitting in.

If I went to a tournament in Phoenix and there was a sideline full of people wearing jackets in the 115 degree heat, I am not putting on a jacket.  It’s not me that has the problem, it’s the idiots with the jackets on.

Social norms change and social norms can be widely held or only held in much smaller groups.  The biggest issue we face today is more and more people are giving in to the supposed norms of the smaller factions of groups and thought.  It’s why we change policy based on such small percentages of people and their specific social norm.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 22, 2021)

texanincali said:


> It’s why we change policy based on such small percentages of people and their specific social norm.


It is why people have been so willing to go along with so many bad things in the past. They don't want to stand out or be singled out. 

I have a friend who isn't worried about the virus but will wear a mask if she sees others doing it. I tell her why? There is no mandate, you don't need to wear one. Her response? Well some of those people wearing a mask might get mad and say something to me. 

My response? So you are going to wear a mask you don't need and is not required because some people you don't know might not like it?

Screw that mindset.


----------



## crush (Jun 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 11017


----------



## crush (Jun 22, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 22, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 22, 2021)

Any of you ever work in an office with the honor system candy box?  The franchise owner would come in on Fridays to collect his cash in one of the offices I used to run.  20 sales reps!!!  However, dude told me he barley broke even in our office.  I told him not to put it next to the coke machine.  He said, "why?"  I said because I think good people pay you a good donation but then the bad people steal the coins to buy them a free coke.  I caught one of my salesman doing it and he said he would pay it back.  Ya right!!!!


----------



## crush (Jun 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> *It is why people have been so willing to go along with so many bad things in the past. They don't want to stand out or be singled out.*
> 
> 
> Screw that mindset.


Not crush bro.  However, it has finally taken it's toll on my soul from the trolls.  I know people who hate me so much all because I take a stand.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 22, 2021)

texanincali said:


> I really appreciate the way you post and I admire that you stay true to your convictions, but your statement above is literally the definition of virtue signaling.
> 
> It is entirely contradictory to your stance of “if we can avoid xxx amount of deaths.” I’ve attempted to engage you and others before on masks because I am confused as to the sudden need.
> 
> ...


<why the experts didn’t recommend masks 5 years ago.> 

From what I can tell, masks work pretty well at preventing me from breathing directly into the air that you breathe in.  Masks work considerably less well as a filter, unless you go for the N95 type.

Because of this, the person protected by the mask is not the person wearing the mask.  It’s the person in front of the person wearing the mask.  

This makes masks hard to study.  It’s easy enough to put masks on half your nurses, and then measure the rate of respiratory disease amongst them.  This measures the ability of the mask to protect the wearer.  Years ago, they ran several of these studies and found out that masks are not great at protecting the wearer.  We ran our studies and found out that masks are only slightly effective against flu.  Case closed.  Time to put up the hand washing posters, because the hand washing studies were much more impressive.

This kind of stalled research on masks.  We thought we knew the answer, and we were wrong.  (Or half wrong. We were right about hand washing.)

I’m not really a save one life kind of person.  I’m more of a save 100,000 lives kind of person.  My opinion on masks this fall depends on whether Delta is likely to cause 10,000 or 100,000 deaths.  If it is 10,000, do what you like.  If it is 100,000, then bring out the masks this fall.  If it is a million, then close down high risk indoor businesses.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 22, 2021)

texanincali said:


> I promise, I’m not coming after you, but I can’t let this go.
> 
> Slavery was a social norm in parts of the world, genitalia mutilation is a social norm in parts of the world..:there are/have been many social norms that just aren’t right.  Making decisions around whether or not you will be ridiculed, chastised or singled out is nothing more than a fear of not fitting in.
> 
> ...


You are seriously comparing a cloth mask to genital mutilation and slavery?

Really?  Do I read the above paragraph correctly?  I am supposed to think about genital mutilation and slavery, and use those thoughts to draw some conclusion about the social conventions around masks?   Do you want to include cannibalism in that list as well?  It’s also one of those social norms we have moved beyond.

Good grief.  I thought we were having a rational discussion here.


----------



## espola (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are seriously comparing a cloth mask to genital mutilation and slavery?
> 
> Really?  Do I read the above paragraph correctly?  I am supposed to think about genital mutilation and slavery, and use those thoughts to draw some conclusion about the social conventions around masks?   Do you want to include cannibalism in that list as well?  It’s also one of those social norms we have moved beyond.
> 
> Good grief.  I thought we were having a rational discussion here.


The rational cow left the barn months ago.


----------



## texanincali (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You are seriously comparing a cloth mask to genital mutilation and slavery?
> 
> Really?  Do I read the above paragraph correctly?  I am supposed to think about genital mutilation and slavery, and use those thoughts to draw some conclusion about the social conventions around masks?   Do you want to include cannibalism in that list as well?  It’s also one of those social norms we have moved beyond.
> 
> Good grief.  I thought we were having a rational discussion here.


I’m not comparing the two - simply stating they could be considered social norms.

You brought up social norm as a reason to do or not do something.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It is why people have been so willing to go along with so many bad things in the past. They don't want to stand out or be singled out.
> 
> I have a friend who isn't worried about the virus but will wear a mask if she sees others doing it. I tell her why? There is no mandate, you don't need to wear one. Her response? Well some of those people wearing a mask might get mad and say something to me.
> 
> ...


I was the same way the first few days. I'm over it, now. If a place doesn't require me (vaccinated) to wear a mask, I don't. So far, I haven't noticed anyone giving me the evil eye and no one has said anything that I have heard.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 22, 2021)

espola said:


> The rational cow left the barn months ago.


Without her mask?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 22, 2021)

texanincali said:


> I’m not comparing the two - simply stating they could be considered social norms.
> 
> You brought up social norm as a reason to do or not do something.


Yes, putting on a mask is a social norm on par with removing a hat.   It is not a social norm on par with clitorectomy.

Espola mentioned a rational cow.  I’m going to go see if I can find it.   Perhaps the two of us can have a nice discussion.


----------



## espola (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes, putting on a mask is a social norm on par with removing a hat.   It is not a social norm on par with clitorectomy.
> 
> Espola mentioned a rational cow.  I’m going to go see if I can find it.   Perhaps the two of us can have a nice discussion.


The usual cliche is "horse left the barn", but I am seeking every chance to use "cow" since Vermont dairy farmer Elle Purrier St Pierre qualified for the Olympics in the Women's 1500 meters yesterday.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 22, 2021)

Chelsea dad g09 said:


> Wearing unneeded masks is not normal behavior.


You really think that most people choose their mask habits based on need?

Looking around, I‘d say mask usage might even correlate negatively with need.    Plenty of unmasked, unvaccinated folks in the deep south.  Plenty of masked, vaccinated people near me.  Those two groups might outnumber the people who dropped their masks after they got their shots.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes, putting on a mask is a social norm on par with removing a hat.   It is not a social norm on par with clitorectomy.
> 
> Espola mentioned a rational cow.  I’m going to go see if I can find it.   Perhaps the two of us can have a nice discussion.


How about standing up for the national anthem?  How's that one going?


----------



## watfly (Jun 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> How about standing up for the national anthem?  How's that one going?


On a tangent, has anyone else noticed the passion and enthusiasm that the players in the Euro sing their national anthem.  Pretty cool.


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You really think that most people choose their mask habits based on need?
> 
> Looking around, I‘d say mask usage might even correlate negatively with need.    Plenty of unmasked, unvaccinated folks in the deep south.  Plenty of masked, vaccinated people near me.  Those two groups might outnumber the people who dropped their masks after they got their shots.


Of the three groups you just mentioned, which two are at extreme ends of the spectrum and which one is in the middle following the guidelines about when masks are needed?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What?  It is not virtue signaling.  It is simply basic manners.  If you walk into a room and everyone has removed their hat, you remove your hat.
> 
> You don't lecture them about why removal of hats is not necessary.  You just take off your hat, because that is the social norm.
> 
> ...


“ but, but . . . BUT!”


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Cards can be faked.  We hired a lab to verify antibody response in the blood samples.  All part of team fees.


I heard of someone who bought a vax card so they can travel. I wonder how it would be to be stuck in some foreign countries jail for falsifying travel documents?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I heard of someone who bought a vacuum card so they can travel. I wonder how it would be to be stuck in some foreign countries jail for falsifying travel documents?


It has probably already happened.  A college kid got months in jail on Grand Cayman for skipping out on quarantine.  I don't imagine they would be any more lenient for a fake vaccine card.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> How about standing up for the national anthem?  How's that one going?


Ester always stands up for the national anthem.


----------



## crush (Jun 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I heard of someone who bought a vax card so they can travel. I wonder how it would be to be stuck in some foreign countries jail for falsifying travel documents?


I heard 4 piloits died after the jab and flying.  Coincidence?  I heard 13 year old.died of enlarge heart after the 2nd jab.  I heard a guy was shot and killed after the jab too and now some want to blame it on the jab, just like dad and his gang tried to say that the motorcycle dude who had the Rona when he died because of Rona, not had Rona when the drunk dude ran a red light and killed him.  Husker, you guys cheated.  Just wait until you find out the real truth behind the cheating.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 22, 2021)

crush said:


> I heard 4 piloits died after the jab and flying.  Coincidence?  I heard 13 year old.died of enlarge heart after the 2nd jab.  I heard a guy was shot and killed after the jab too and now some want to blame it on the jab, just like dad and his gang tried to say that the motorcycle dude who had the Rona when he died because of Rona, not had Rona when the drunk dude ran a red light and killed him.  Husker, you guys cheated.  Just wait until you find out the real truth behind the cheating.


Do you ever tire of being a fool?


----------



## what-happened (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Cards can be faked.  We hired a lab to verify antibody response in the blood samples.  All part of team fees.


 You are kidding right?  Sounds like a SNL skit.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 22, 2021)

N00B said:


> Expounding on that point, this forum is basically a discussion that became an argument. (Not that unusual in an online forum) You may be able to discuss things in a forum setting and occasionally convince others to adopt your viewpoint… What I’ve never seen is the value of argument in lieu of discussion in an online forum.  Personal attacks don’t ever add value to a the viewpoint you’re expressing.


I prefer the same.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 22, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You are kidding right?  Sounds like a SNL skit.


Yes, he's kidding. Pretty funny.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 22, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Yes, he's kidding. Pretty funny.


IIUC, the antibody tests can't distinguish between natural and vaccinated immunity anyways.  It just tells you the level of antibodies you have.  So if you insist on everyone (including those with natural immunity) being vaccinated, they won't be able to tell you that anyways.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> IIUC, the antibody tests can't distinguish between natural and vaccinated immunity anyways.  It just tells you the level of antibodies you have.  So if you insist on everyone (including those with natural immunity) being vaccinated, they won't be able to tell you that anyways.


Not much better we can do.  We did our best to make sure all parents stayed within the bubble, but ankle bracelets are removable, and even team fees will only pay for a certain number of armed guards.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not much better we can do.  We did our best to make sure all parents stayed within the bubble, but ankle bracelets are removable, and even team fees will only pay for a certain number of armed guards.


Not true.  If you had been more forward thinking you would have foregone the armed guards and just paid the team videographer (or the GK parent, who no doubt videos everything anyways) to go and videotape the actual injections.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

Looks like lausd next year will require masks even for vaccinated students and staff and covid testing every 2 weeks. Remote learning will continue to be an option for kids and staff that don’t want to go back due to health concerns.


----------



## crush (Jun 23, 2021)

The WHO is now playing a new song, "Kids should not get the jab."


----------



## dad4 (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like lausd next year will require masks even for vaccinated students and staff and covid testing every 2 weeks. Remote learning will continue to be an option for kids and staff that don’t want to go back due to health concerns.


Zoom Ed only really works for highly motivated kids in low discussion fields.  12 year old in calc?  Zoom is just fine.  16 year old in remedial English?  Face to face.

I have a suspicion that LAUSD has more 16 year olds in remedial English than 12 year olds in Calc.  Just a guess.


----------



## crush (Jun 23, 2021)

“Children should not be vaccinated for the moment,” the WHO said. “There is not yet enough evidence on the use of vaccines against COVID-19 in children to make recommendations for children to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Children and adolescents tend to have milder disease compared to adults. However, children should continue to have the recommended childhood vaccines.”

The WHO’s guidance does not exactly correspond with that of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, according to its website.


----------



## texanincali (Jun 23, 2021)

crush said:


> The WHO is now playing a new song, "Kids should not get the jab."


Not any longer.  Facebook got wind of the WHO info and censored it for misinformation.  Now WHO has removed that sentence from their site.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like lausd next year will require masks even for vaccinated students and staff and covid testing every 2 weeks. Remote learning will continue to be an option for kids and staff that don’t want to go back due to health concerns.


Where did you hear this?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like lausd next year will require masks even for vaccinated students and staff and covid testing every 2 weeks. Remote learning will continue to be an option for kids and staff that don’t want to go back due to health concerns.


Can CA treat their children any worse? This can't possibly be true, can it? It's too late for them, but they should have been testing for the Howard Hughes virus. The tough thing about that one is that once you catch it, it appears to be a permanent condition.


----------



## crush (Jun 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Can CA treat their children any worse? This can't possibly be true, can it? It's too late for them, but they should have been testing for the* Howard Hughes virus*. The tough thing about that one is that once you catch it, it appears to be a permanent condition.


Dad has it for sure and many of my old pals have it as well.  Gripped with fear plus OCD is not good for control freaks.  I call it HHV bro.  No known cure either except the one and only


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Zoom Ed only really works for highly motivated kids in low discussion fields.  12 year old in calc?  Zoom is just fine.  16 year old in remedial English?  Face to face.
> 
> I have a suspicion that LAUSD has more 16 year olds in remedial English than 12 year olds in Calc.  Just a guess.


Agreed. One of the negative outcomes for public schools due to COVID is that families with exceptional or at least exceptionally self-disciplined students will find they can accomplish much more outside of the public school system and will choose that path. It won't be a large percentage, but those leaving will be the top students.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 23, 2021)

crush said:


> Dad has it for sure and many of my old pals have it as well.  Gripped with fear plus OCD is not good for control freaks.  I call it HHV bro.  No known cure either except the one and only


I believe @dad4 advocates for children being in school this fall. He and I disagree on what level of risk is acceptable and what level of authority should be used to enforce NPIs, but I don't find him to be irrational whereas, if this is true about LAUSD, I find that irrational.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 23, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Do you ever tire of being a fool?


Such a treat watching you chase parked cars.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> <why the experts didn’t recommend masks 5 years ago.>
> 
> From what I can tell, masks work pretty well at preventing me from breathing directly into the air that you breathe in.  Masks work considerably less well as a filter, unless you go for the N95 type.
> 
> ...


More words, same nonsense.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> I believe @dad4 advocates for children being in school this fall. He and I disagree on what level of risk is acceptable and what level of authority should be used to enforce NPIs, but I don't find him to be irrational whereas, if this is true about LAUSD, I find that irrational.


I think LAUSD may have a subset of teachers who prefer zoom, so they are catering to that.   If you're already phoning it in, zoom is the natural extension. 

I have no problem with the mask requirement, even for vax.  You can't run a school where half of kids have a rule and half do not.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Where did you hear this?


Two sources: the lausd union Facebook account updating membership on how negotiations are going...no finalized yet and will be submitted to membership for review but they touted it as a loosening of standards since right now testing is weekly, and my kids godmother who is in the special needs subtaskforce for the union.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think LAUSD may have a subset of teachers who prefer zoom, so they are catering to that.   If you're already phoning it in, zoom is the natural extension.
> 
> I have no problem with the mask requirement, even for vax.  You can't run a school where half of kids have a rule and half do not.


How about freedom to choose as opposed to rules?


----------



## watfly (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like lausd next year will require masks even for vaccinated students and staff and covid testing every 2 weeks. Remote learning will continue to be an option for kids and staff that don’t want to go back due to health concerns.


Criminal, not in the legal sense, but conceptually in terms of abuse of children.  Pre-covid, if a parent had made their child wear a mask 8 hours a day which inhibits breathing, CPS would have been visiting them.

Grace had made the comment a few months ago, about how we used to put children (and women first).  Now we put the burden on children for the benefit of adults.  So vaccinated adults don't have to wear a mask at work, but children whose odds of getting sick combined with the odds of spreading the virus are slim to none.  How completely F'ed up has our society become?  If you had any question whether the large school districts have the best interest of our children in mind, the surely proves that they do not.  Shameful.


----------



## watfly (Jun 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think LAUSD may have a subset of teachers who prefer zoom.


They should find a different profession.  Remote learning is not education.  If LAUSD is catering to them its more proof that they couldn't care less about the children.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 23, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Agreed. One of the negative outcomes for public schools due to COVID is that families with exceptional or at least exceptionally self-disciplined students will find they can accomplish much more outside of the public school system and will choose that path. It won't be a large percentage, but those leaving will be the top students.


Teaching to the lowest common denominator never works for the self-motivated and is partly why our country is in the position it is now. Playing to the lowest common denominator got us here.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

LAUSD Board Approves Labor Deal with Teachers for Fall Campus Instruction
					

The Los Angeles Unified School District Board of Education approved a labor agreement Tuesday with its teachers union for a return to traditional in-person instruction for the 2021-22 school year.




					www.nbclosangeles.com
				




Hitting the news.


----------



## crush (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> LAUSD Board Approves Labor Deal with Teachers for Fall Campus Instruction
> 
> 
> The Los Angeles Unified School District Board of Education approved a labor agreement Tuesday with its teachers union for a return to traditional in-person instruction for the 2021-22 school year.
> ...


This is insane!!!!


----------



## watfly (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> LAUSD Board Approves Labor Deal with Teachers for Fall Campus Instruction
> 
> 
> The Los Angeles Unified School District Board of Education approved a labor agreement Tuesday with its teachers union for a return to traditional in-person instruction for the 2021-22 school year.
> ...


These should have been the rules for Sep 2020, absurd for Sep 2021.


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> LAUSD Board Approves Labor Deal with Teachers for Fall Campus Instruction
> 
> 
> The Los Angeles Unified School District Board of Education approved a labor agreement Tuesday with its teachers union for a return to traditional in-person instruction for the 2021-22 school year.
> ...


Why is this in the Bad News thread?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Teaching to the lowest common denominator never works for the self-motivated and is partly why our country is in the position it is now. Playing to the lowest common denominator got us here.


The United States has always been adverse to tracking kids (I think it's one of the reasons we are so bad at tracking kids in sports....we are kind of half in and half out of the pool).  It runs against the egalitarian strain in our society.  But mostly, tracking would require us to accept that some kids cannot be saved (i.e., educated to the level we want them).  The fact that many of those kids would be minorities further complicates things.


----------



## watfly (Jun 23, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Teaching to the lowest common denominator never works for the self-motivated and is partly why our country is in the position it is now. Playing to the lowest common denominator got us here.











						In the Name of Equity, California Will Discourage Students Who Are Gifted at Math
					

California's Department of Education is working on a new framework for K-12 mathematics that discourages gifted students from enrolling in...




					reason.com


----------



## dad4 (Jun 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> In the Name of Equity, California Will Discourage Students Who Are Gifted at Math
> 
> 
> California's Department of Education is working on a new framework for K-12 mathematics that discourages gifted students from enrolling in...
> ...


That one makes me especially sad.

Bright kids in lower grades spend so much time waiting for everyone else to learn basic concepts.  But at least you eventually reached high school and could be placed in a class of nice people who tried hard.  

Now they want to take that away and dumb down the honors classes to save the self esteem of the kids who never bothered to work before.

After all, why bother training engineers?  It’s very hard work, and Bangalore does a much better job of it.


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> In the Name of Equity, California Will Discourage Students Who Are Gifted at Math
> 
> 
> California's Department of Education is working on a new framework for K-12 mathematics that discourages gifted students from enrolling in...
> ...


From the FAQ --

*Does the draft Mathematics Framework prohibit local education agencies from serving “gifted” students?*
No. Since the development of the 2013 _Mathematics Framework_, new research has emerged that can be used to inform local conversations about how to best serve high achieving students. The draft _Mathematics Framework_ discusses the most recent research that concludes that students can achieve high levels of math competency if they have access to effective mathematics teaching and learning, which also fosters a growth mindset. However, just as with other student groups, high achieving students can be underserved or marginalized.

To provide a more inclusive approach, the draft _Mathematics Framework_ encourages the use of open, authentic, multi-dimensional tasks. This includes but is not limited to, learning mathematical ideas not only through numbers, but also through words, visuals, models, algorithms, multiple representations, tables, and graphs; from moving and touching; and from other representations. Studies show that when learning reflects the use of two or more of these means, the learning experience improves.


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That one makes me especially sad.
> 
> Bright kids in lower grades spend so much time waiting for everyone else to learn basic concepts.  But at least you eventually reached high school and could be placed in a class of nice people who tried hard.
> 
> ...


Bright kids will mature into adults that understand that publications like reason.com have an agenda to sell.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> From the FAQ --
> 
> *Does the draft Mathematics Framework prohibit local education agencies from serving “gifted” students?*
> No. Since the development of the 2013 _Mathematics Framework_, new research has emerged that can be used to inform local conversations about how to best serve high achieving students. The draft _Mathematics Framework_ discusses the most recent research that concludes that students can achieve high levels of math competency if they have access to effective mathematics teaching and learning, which also fosters a growth mindset. However, just as with other student groups, high achieving students can be underserved or marginalized.
> ...


I read a lot of jargon in my work.  The jardon from the pharma companies during the pandemic was especially jarring.  But this...wow.

The issue with teaching kids in the same classwork and differentiating them through the work is that the higher performing kids will be short changed, because the teachers spend their time focused on the more difficult or struggling students.  My son's former girlfriend is in that boat.  Was  only one of 2 kids to go out of 5th grade into public school.  She was the class valedictorian.  All the rest of the kids did private.  Her parents wanted her public because they believe its important she get to know regular folks (but sheltered her in private elementary early on).  She basically spent the last year bored in math class, everything was review, she was discouraged by the many kids that didn't show up for zoom lessons, and basically got thrown a lot of busy work.  The experience carried over when they went back to part time in person.  She's gone from being one of the brightest stars in mathematics in private school to hating math.  Her older sister did the same route, so no doubt her folks thought it would be o.k.  But her older sister was a self-starter that would do calculus in algebra class by herself or was content to take a nap in algebra class and do calculus on her own.  The younger one is not such a self-starter and is more of an unfocused explorer (her dad's teaching her tort law, for example, this summer) and has grown very bored with school as a result.  My younger son is similar and has a tendency to act up if he's not challenged.


----------



## watfly (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Bright kids will mature into adults that understand that publications like reason.com have an agenda to sell.


I will just be happy if young adults stop getting their news from The Daily Show.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> From the FAQ --
> 
> *Does the draft Mathematics Framework prohibit local education agencies from serving “gifted” students?*
> No. Since the development of the 2013 _Mathematics Framework_, new research has emerged that can be used to inform local conversations about how to best serve high achieving students. The draft _Mathematics Framework_ discusses the most recent research that concludes that students can achieve high levels of math competency if they have access to effective mathematics teaching and learning, which also fosters a growth mindset. However, just as with other student groups, high achieving students can be underserved or marginalized.
> ...


I’ve read enough from Jo Boaler to see past the jargon.

Boaler is actively opposed to the whole notion of giftedness.  She rarely uses the word without putting it in quotes.   As above.  You don’t put your “words” in quotes unless you want to express doubt about the concept they express.

Can you imagine sending your kid to a “soccer“ coach who refuses to talk about ball skills without using quotes to undermine the concept?  

We aren’t really going to focus on “ball skills” at New Age Soccer Academy.  All that juggling is just Drill and Kill.  Instead, we are going to divide ourselves into focus groups that work on developing a growth mindset to visualize the ball going into the goal.  Once our young athletes have adopted a multi-dimensional whole athlete self empowerment approach, I am sure they will do quite well.  Please do not bring a ball.  Balls are not necessary for our program.


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I read a lot of jargon in my work.  The jardon from the pharma companies during the pandemic was especially jarring.  But this...wow.
> 
> The issue with teaching kids in the same classwork and differentiating them through the work is that the higher performing kids will be short changed, because the teachers spend their time focused on the more difficult or struggling students.  My son's former girlfriend is in that boat.  Was  only one of 2 kids to go out of 5th grade into public school.  She was the class valedictorian.  All the rest of the kids did private.  Her parents wanted her public because they believe its important she get to know regular folks (but sheltered her in private elementary early on).  She basically spent the last year bored in math class, everything was review, she was discouraged by the many kids that didn't show up for zoom lessons, and basically got thrown a lot of busy work.  The experience carried over when they went back to part time in person.  She's gone from being one of the brightest stars in mathematics in private school to hating math.  Her older sister did the same route, so no doubt her folks thought it would be o.k.  But her older sister was a self-starter that would do calculus in algebra class by herself or was content to take a nap in algebra class and do calculus on her own.  The younger one is not such a self-starter and is more of an unfocused explorer (her dad's teaching her tort law, for example, this summer) and has grown very bored with school as a result.  My younger son is similar and has a tendency to act up if he's not challenged.


I am frequently amazed to read how terrible many posters' childrens' schools are.  They are nothing like the schools my kids attended.  I guess you deserve my sympathy?


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’ve read enough from Jo Boaler to see past the jargon.
> 
> Boaler is actively opposed to the whole notion of giftedness.  She rarely uses the word without putting it in quotes.   As above.  You don’t put your “words” in quotes unless you want to express doubt about the concept they express.
> 
> ...


"No" is not jargon.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> I am frequently amazed to read how terrible many posters' childrens' schools are.  They are nothing like the schools my kids attended.  I guess you deserve my sympathy?


a. I went to a working class parochial school
b. the nuns kept everyone in order by whacking them with rulers
c. the one nun I remember the most was the one who wouldn't put up with my excuse bs or the class is too easy bs and put my nose to the grindstone and forced me to accept responsibility for my actions
d. school aren't like that today
e. it was my son's girlfriend's school I was writing about.  my kids do private.
f. schools have changed so much I elected to not send my kids to my own parochial high school alma matter.  it's that different now.
g. I offer you my most enthusiastic contrafibularities at your usual prasmiotic way of looking at things.    I'm very compunctious of having received your pericombobulous sympathies.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> "No" is not jargon.


“No“ is not jargon.  But “growth mindset” is.

And, as long as schools think that “growth mindset” counts as a replacement for “getting the right answer”, we will be importing our engineers from places which _do_ value getting the right answer, with no quotes necessary.

“Buzz”


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a. I went to a working class parochial school
> b. the nuns kept everyone in order by whacking them with rulers
> c. the one nun I remember the most was the one who wouldn't put up with my excuse bs or the class is too easy bs and put my nose to the grindstone and forced me to accept responsibility for my actions
> d. school aren't like that today
> ...


In the flavor of SAT verbal test, you are going to have to give me 4 or more choices of definitions for some of those words (including none of the above, I guess, for a couple).

Sample --

contrafibularities is to prasmiotic as _____ is to pericombobulous

Back to reality - you are criticizing public schools with no direct experience.  

Please continue.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> In the flavor of SAT verbal test, you are going to have to give me 4 or more choices of definitions for some of those words (including none of the above, I guess, for a couple).
> 
> Sample --
> 
> ...


Not a Black Adder fan I see.


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> “No“ is not jargon.  But “growth mindset” is.
> 
> And, as long as schools think that “growth mindset” counts as a replacement for “getting the right answer”, we will be importing our engineers from places which _do_ value getting the right answer, with no quotes necessary.
> 
> “Buzz”


Professionals often have precisely defined language so there is little doubt about what they mean.  I remember the first grade teacher-parent conference when the teacher used the term "rubric".  I wasn't going to let on that I was going to have to look up the word when I got home "Ummm -- OK".

Engineers I have known have used words like "moment of inertia", "bypass capacitors", and "memory refresh cycle" with the faith that other engineers will understand precisely what those words mean.  We didn't care if the MBAs on the design review board didn't.

(they could always go look it up)


----------



## crush (Jun 23, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Professionals often have precisely defined language so there is little doubt about what they mean.  I remember the first grade teacher-parent conference when the teacher used the term "rubric".  I wasn't going to let on that I was going to have to look up the word when I got home "Ummm -- OK".
> 
> Engineers I have known have used words like "moment of inertia", "bypass capacitors", and "memory refresh cycle" with the faith that other engineers will understand precisely what those words mean.  We didn't care if the MBAs on the design review board didn't.
> 
> (they could always go look it up)


Yes.  There is a place for well defined neutral terms.

”Growth Mindset” fails the neutrality test.  Use of that term necessarily implies that competing educational philosophies must somehow be opposed to growth.   

Why would you choose a term which denigrates the related concepts?  Simple.  You choose loaded language when you are engaged in advocacy: Welfare Queens v/s Families with dependent children.   Dreamer v/s Illegals.  Voter suppression v/s election security.   

When you are engaged in research, you choose neutral language- like “rubric”, or “bypass capacitor”.

To judge them by their current choice of language, schools of education are engaged in advocacy, not research.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’ve read enough from Jo Boaler to see past the jargon.
> 
> Please do not bring a ball.  Balls are not necessary for our program.


I've read enough of Dad4 to see past the jargon.

Please do not bring the last 50 years of virus history.  It is not necessary for NPI policy implementation.


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yes.  There is a place for well defined neutral terms.
> 
> ”Growth Mindset” fails the neutrality test.  Use of that term necessarily implies that competing educational philosophies must somehow be opposed to growth.
> 
> ...


"..necessarily implies..."?  I'm not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your police work there, Lou.


----------



## crush (Jun 23, 2021)

*Data suggests 'likely' link between COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, rare heart issues in teens, CDC panel says*
*Of the 484 preliminary reports of myocarditis and pericarditis among vaccinated people under 30, 323 met the CDC’s case definition*


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

crush said:


> *Data suggests 'likely' link between COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, rare heart issues in teens, CDC panel says*
> *Of the 484 preliminary reports of myocarditis and pericarditis among vaccinated people under 30, 323 met the CDC’s case definition*


Looks like they are slapping a warning on it instead of pausing it.  Will still hurt the vaccination drive for the under 18 and will now cause problems for those colleges requiring it as part of a return to in person learning.   What really the public needs for guidance is what the incidence of myocarditis is with the Rona for those under 30 v. the vaccine.  BUT, if La County follows suit to LAUSD and requires even vaccinated kids in private schools to get tested and wear masks, there's no point in me having the kids vaccinated.









						FDA to add warning about rare heart inflammation to Pfizer, Moderna vaccines
					

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Wednesday it plans to move quickly to add a warning about rare cases of heart inflammation in adolescents and young adults to fact sheets for the Pfizer/BioNTech (PFE.N),  and Moderna (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccines.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like they are slapping a warning on it instead of pausing it.  Will still hurt the vaccination drive for the under 18 and will now cause problems for those colleges requiring it as part of a return to in person learning.   What really the public needs for guidance is what the incidence of myocarditis is with the Rona for those under 30 v. the vaccine.  BUT, if La County follows suit to LAUSD and requires even vaccinated kids in private schools to get tested and wear masks, there's no point in me having the kids vaccinated.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

Delta Plus variant now.....life will find a way.









						COVID-19: Why India is concerned about 'Delta plus' variant and a third wave - as 41 cases detected in UK
					

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his government and the scientific community have warned a third wave could be a few weeks away.




					news.sky.com


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like they are slapping a warning on it instead of pausing it.  Will still hurt the vaccination drive for the under 18 and will now cause problems for those colleges requiring it as part of a return to in person learning.   What really the public needs for guidance is what the incidence of myocarditis is with the Rona for those under 30 v. the vaccine.  BUT, if La County follows suit to LAUSD and requires even vaccinated kids in private schools to get tested and wear masks, there's no point in me having the kids vaccinated.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Your logic is backward.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Your logic is backward.


Your contribution to these discussions, as usual, is stunning.  You have my sincere contrafibularities.


----------



## crush (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Your logic is backward.


She was responding to Crush.  I always get a rush when Grace or someone with her stature gives me a "like" or even better, a response.  Goose bumps so to speak.  You have me on ignore dude so stay true to your word at least and buzz off.  Thanks


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 23, 2021)

It looks like there's an outbreak underway in southern China that the Chinese government isn't being totally forthcoming about.....


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Looks like lausd next year will require masks even for vaccinated students and staff and covid testing every 2 weeks. Remote learning will continue to be an option for kids and staff that don’t want to go back due to health concerns.


Sometimes I feel sorry for people living in CA and having to put up with the idiots in charge. Then I realize they voted for this type of "leadership".


"California teachers unions are teaming up with Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom to keep COVID-19 restrictions on learning even after students return to in-person schooling this fall.

While children only represent 13 percent of all COVID-19 cases and a much smaller percentage of total deaths, the state’s health department and Newsom are requiring all children in government K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status, to wear a mask in school this fall."









						California Teachers Unions Team Up With Democrats To Mask Students In Half-Hearted Return To School
					

California teachers unions are teaming up with Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom to keep COVID-19 restrictions on learning even after students return to in-person schooling this fall. While children only represent 13 percent of all COVID-19 cases and a much smaller percentage of total deaths, the...




					thefederalist.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> In the Name of Equity, California Will Discourage Students Who Are Gifted at Math
> 
> 
> California's Department of Education is working on a new framework for K-12 mathematics that discourages gifted students from enrolling in...
> ...


The idiotic policies you see being put in place in schools do nothing to help the kids. 

Look at the party that usually promotes this kind of crap. 

Vote them out. Vote for people/party that actually care about education instead of trying to check off the latest box in their woke to do list.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a. I went to a working class parochial school
> b. the nuns kept everyone in order by whacking them with rulers
> c. the one nun I remember the most was the one who wouldn't put up with my excuse bs or the class is too easy bs and put my nose to the grindstone and forced me to accept responsibility for my actions
> d. school aren't like that today
> ...


I sent my kids to one of the "best" public schools in the state. After seeing what the school was doing it was time for a change. The way they taught, what they were teaching, etc left a lot to be desired. The focus on things not related to actual learning was maddening. 

I moved them to a charter school. The change was night and day. 

The very first day of class they already had homework. They were and are challenged. I recall a conversation I heard with a mom whose kids were at my kids previous school and were now at the middle school where my kids would have gone. Their first homework assignment was 3 weeks in. It consisted of ...what people think I do vs what I actually do. That is kindergarten kind of stuff. 

I looked at my wife and said thank God we got them out of the system and into something rigorous.


----------



## watfly (Jun 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The idiotic policies you see being put in place in schools do nothing to help the kids.
> 
> Look at the party that usually promotes this kind of crap.
> 
> Vote them out. Vote for people/party that actually care about education instead of trying to check off the latest box in their woke to do list.


At best it promotes mediocrity, and at worst it makes both slower learners and bright kids dumber.

I can appreciate that there are some social issues that need to be addressed in education, but this "equity" concept is so damaging.   Here's another thing, the overwhelming majority of kids don't care what color, orientation, income level, smart or not you are.  They don't really care or even give a second thought to the differences.  If they do it's because of their parents, and school isn't going to change that opinion.

The last thing that teenagers need to worry about is social problems that they had no responsibility in creating.  Teach history, facts and skills.  They can learn theories in college.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 23, 2021)

espola said:


> Your logic is backward.


So is your Depends.


----------



## espola (Jun 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I sent my kids to one of the "best" public schools in the state. After seeing what the school was doing it was time for a change. The way they taught, what they were teaching, etc left a lot to be desired. The focus on things not related to actual learning was maddening.
> 
> I moved them to a charter school. The change was night and day.
> 
> ...


_
The results of the Mathematica study gives context to previous research. A well-publicized study of charter schools by the Center for Research on Education Outcomes (CREDO) in 15 states and the District of Columbia studied 70% of the students enrolled in charter schools in the U.S. They found 17 percent of charters posted academic gains that were significantly better than traditional public schools, 37 percent of charter schools were significantly worse, and 46 percent were statistically indistinguishable. Another recent study by Zimmer et al. found that charters in five jurisdictions were performing the same as traditional public schools, while charter schools in two other jurisdictions were performing worse._





__





						Charter Schools: Research and Report
					





					www.ncsl.org


----------



## N00B (Jun 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It looks like there's an outbreak underway in southern China that the Chinese government isn't being totally forthcoming about.....


With this being a high priority vaccination region by policy and the apparent ability of the Delta variant to bypass the prevalent vaccine (China’s Vaccine).

This looks like mass lockdowns to save face more than an under reported outbreak.  Both are possible, but I think one is more probable based on my experience overseas.


----------



## crush (Jun 24, 2021)

*CDC Finds More Cases of Heart Inflammation Than Expected in Vaccinated Young Males*


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 24, 2021)

__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				




US says Chinese asked for removal of virus records from a data base suggesting a deliberate attempt to thwart investigation into origins of COVID


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 24, 2021)

While CA is looking to mask up the kids, I just got this from our school.

"When we start up again in August, we look forward to returning to normal operations. This means that we will not be requiring masks, there will be no social distancing mandates, no separating sections on the playground, no desk shields, and there will be a return to after school programs.

We will maintain a robust mitigation plan that includes keeping the extra day porter on each campus for ongoing cleaning throughout the day, increased ventilation during flu season (Oct-Mar), as well as daily contact-tracing for any positive cases on campus."

The school had kids in school full time by the end of last Aug. Guess what? Everyone survived. Even the teachers and administrators. 

The public high schools in our area? Didn't have in person classes until after Thanksgiving. Then when they started it was only a few times per week and not even full days. I guess they thought it was safe to have classes til 12, but after that time, in the interest of safety they sent them home.


----------



## whatithink (Jun 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The public high schools in our area? Didn't have in person classes until after Thanksgiving. Then when they started it was only a few times per week and not even full days. I guess they thought it was safe to have classes til 12, but after that time, in the interest of safety they sent them home.


The HS I know of ran in person only classes in the AM and online only classes in the PM. There's logic to that. So, no, it had nothing to do with whatever you have dreamed up.

FWIW, I don't agree with keeping kids out of school etc., and it was stupid, IMV, for the HS to do that.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jun 24, 2021)

Ours schools went from online, to hybrid, to half days, to full days. Meh, it was fine- in the end they did what they could. They had a ton of guidelines they had to meet to even do the modified schedules. My kids survived and are anxious to move on.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Sometimes I feel sorry for people living in CA and having to put up with the idiots in charge. Then I realize they voted for this type of "leadership".
> 
> 
> "California teachers unions are teaming up with Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom to keep COVID-19 restrictions on learning even after students return to in-person schooling this fall.
> ...


Still having trouble understanding the concept of community spread, I see.  

Delta is roughly doubling every 2 weeks.   Revisit this around Labor Day.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Still having trouble understanding the concept of community spread, I see.
> 
> Delta is roughly doubling every 2 weeks.   Revisit this around Labor Day.


Still having trouble understanding the concept of community spread OVER THE LAST 50 YEARS , I see.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No one said that natural immunity doesn’t exist.


No they did not say that.  Their actions said it for them.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Any word on how severe the reinfections are?  You'd hope there is at least a lessening of severity, even if you still get sick.
> 
> Makes a big difference to us.  *Some states here, more than half of our immunity is from prior infections.*


Prior infections???  When was that?  Lol!


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 24, 2021)

More ivermectin data.....


----------



## crush (Jun 24, 2021)

Interesting that the name of the third wave is named after Camp Delta down at the Bay.  May God be with us all.  I heard a rumor but I wont share because I'm crazy.


----------



## espola (Jun 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> More ivermectin data.....


 Do you think anyone should change their behavior because of this?  Should clinicians change their treatments?

From the poster above his right shoulder --
"I care, so I wear a mask, 
There's no need to ask"

Have you noticed that Dr. Campbll recommends general vaccination?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If it really was bats, why would they do everything in their power to avoid an investigation? It would be in their best interest to show more evidence, because, you know, it's bats.


----------



## crush (Jun 24, 2021)

That's me and Hound after we got our supplies in AZ.  He's dropping me off at March AFB in this pic......lol!


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The nonsense is the crap they peddle in critical race theory. If you like the idea of creating division where there wasn't any before, the CRT is for you. But then again you just regurgitate what you are spoon fed.


I have noticed that CRT is heating up in the news lately.  Have you figured out what it means yet?


----------



## crush (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I have noticed that *CRT is heating up *in the news lately.  Have you figured out what it means yet?


Let me help you.  What's actually heating up is Good vs Evil.  It's real simple but your brain is full of hate.  I would say our country is really good and our people our really good.  Good Black people, good White people, good Asians and good Latinos.  Good people in a corrupt system that was controlled by evil!!!.  These evil people come in all colors too.  Evil White, evil Black, evil Asian and even a few evil Latinos.  The hard part in all this is trying to figure out who is good and who is evil.  Dont judge a book by it's cover.  Open the book and get to know the book before you judge the cover.  Does that help you little man?


----------



## crush (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I have noticed that CRT is heating up in the news lately.  *Have you figured out what it means yet?*


----------



## crush (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I have noticed that CRT is heating up in the news lately. * Have you figured out what it means yet?*


If your born white, then you are now labeled a privileged human because you were born white.  It doesn;t matter where your born or who your born too, as long as your born white you are a racist and you are privileged rich person.  Do I have that down right?  Is this still a theory or the truth? Please, someone help us with the truth.  These teachers are whackos and I think this one is guilty about how she treated others in the past and is now trying to be supportive.  I have friend Jenny who was born white to a abusive father ((I wont share the shit he did to her)) who left after he had his way with her.  Total abuser and loser.  Her mother was a complete drunk and would leave her all alone for days in Florida.  This little blond white girl was wondering around the streets in Florida, alone at 10 years old.  Tough times for this little privilege white blond devil girl.  Some bad things happen to her but she fought hard to live and boy did she.  She was a gifted white girl in her white brain and was able to use her privilege of  whiteness into a college.  She is happily married today with two boys and a black husband.  They are so happy 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1408056010556719106


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I have noticed that CRT is heating up in the news lately.  Have you figured out what it means yet?


Yeah it means that people are starting to fight back against this idiotic theory. The more they are exposed to its lunacy the more they want it gone. 

People like you however seem to like it. 

Based on your record here on the boards that alone is all one needs to know regarding how valuable this "theory" is.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I have noticed that CRT is heating up in the news lately.  Have you figured out what it means yet?


Traditionally, the proponents of an idea have the burden of putting forward a clear definition.

So far, CRT proponents have declined to do so.  If you keep it fuzzy, it’s harder to criticize,

On the other hand, if you can’t clearly define your curriculum, then you have no business teaching it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

Our supply chains will feel the affects of Covid for some time.

CHAOS IN CONTAINER SHIPPING.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Traditionally, the proponents of an idea have the burden of putting forward a clear definition.
> 
> So far, CRT proponents have declined to do so.  If you keep it fuzzy, it’s harder to criticize,
> 
> On the other hand, if you can’t clearly define your curriculum, then you have no business teaching it.


It’s about learning, that’s all.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> It’s about learning, that’s all.


When you are indoctrinated by propaganda which creates division, that isn't called learning.


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Traditionally, the proponents of an idea have the burden of putting forward a clear definition.
> 
> So far, CRT proponents have declined to do so.  If you keep it fuzzy, it’s harder to criticize,
> 
> On the other hand, if you can’t clearly define your curriculum, then you have no business teaching it.


I have seen some quite clear expositions of critical race theory without googling too hard.  The opponents, however (those who like to call it "nonsense" and "crap", for example) have not been so clear in demonstrating their understanding of what it is,


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yeah it means that people are starting to fight back against this idiotic theory. The more they are exposed to its lunacy the more they want it gone.
> 
> People like you however seem to like it.
> 
> Based on your record here on the boards that alone is all one needs to know regarding how valuable this "theory" is.


Why would you say I like it?  What part of the details of CRT have I expressed like for?


----------



## dad4 (Jun 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> It’s about learning, that’s all.


Wonderful.  Any kind of learning is ok?

For my CRT classes, I will focus on prime factorization, fractions, and long division.

Grades will be issued solely on the basis of written work.  To assure an absence of racial bias, exams will be graded without cover sheets, and no partial credit will be given.  Because of the possibility of unconscious bias in the school administration, all promotion decisions are algorithmic and not subject to appeal:  any students below 65% will repeat the class, regardless of race, gender, or ethnic origin.  

Maybe you want to be a smidge clearer than “it’s about learning”.  I don’t think most CRT proponents would care for the above class.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I have seen some quite clear expositions of critical race theory without googling too hard.  The opponents, however (those who like to call it "nonsense" and "crap", for example) have not been so clear in demonstrating their understanding of what it is,


Link?

The descriptions I have seen could apply to anything, including the history classes I took in the 1980s.  

Here is one:

”The core idea is that racism is a social construct, and that it is not merely the product of individual bias or prejudice, but also something embedded in legal systems and policies.”

My class in the 1980s talked about slavery and segregation.  Therefore it satisfies the above definition.

Now, if CRT proponents are asking for something which didn’t exist 40 years ago in all white suburban public schools, they need to put forward a clearer definition.

Otherwise, Tucker Carlson gets to define it for them.  And he is.


----------



## crush (Jun 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Wonderful.  Any kind of learning is ok?
> 
> For my CRT classes, I will focus on prime factorization, fractions, and long division.
> 
> ...


For my class it will look like this:

No grades first off.  It will be pass or fail.  If you dont want to be here, please leave.  I will teach through small groups of 5 x 5.  25 students is all I can handle if I have a teachers aid.  I will look for leaders to help lead each group to learn each subject.  For example, math is so wrong and lonely for so many and it causes some people to feel dumb.  Math learned in a group is way better   Help each other is my motto


----------



## watfly (Jun 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Otherwise, Tucker Carlson gets to define it for them.  And he is.


Even I can't watch his show.

Let's be honest, primetime cable "news" is virtually unwatchable.  I can only watch it for a few minutes before I start talking back to the TV.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Link?
> 
> The descriptions I have seen could apply to anything, including the history classes I took in the 1980s.
> 
> ...


He's parroting the line making its way around the leftist twitterverse: CRT is an academic discipline which overlaps a variety of other disciplines such as economics and sociology.  That's not what the debate about public schools is about...they are just teaching antiracism and you know, like actual history.  The right is just labelling this as a "CRT" boogey man because they don't want antiracism taught in schools.  They can't even define what CRT theory is.

It's funny to see you and your friends on opposite sides BTW.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Our supply chains will feel the affects of Covid for some time.
> 
> CHAOS IN CONTAINER SHIPPING.


Living it daily!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Traditionally, the proponents of an idea have the burden of putting forward a clear definition.
> 
> So far, CRT proponents have declined to do so.  If you keep it fuzzy, it’s harder to criticize,
> 
> On the other hand, if you can’t clearly define your curriculum, then you have no business teaching it.


This appears to support what you state. I am assuming this group (edweek.org) favors it. From the post.

"*School boards, superintendents, even principals and teachers are already facing questions about critical race theory, and there are significant disagreements even among experts about its precise definition as well as how its tenets should inform K-12 policy and practice.*"









						What Is Critical Race Theory, and Why Is It Under Attack?
					

Debates about critical race theory are coming to your district, board room, and classroom. Here's what you need to understand about the academic concept—and how it's portrayed in political circles.




					www.edweek.org


----------



## dad4 (Jun 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He's parroting the line making its way around the leftist twitterverse: CRT is an academic discipline which overlaps a variety of other disciplines such as economics and sociology.  That's not what the debate about public schools is about...they are just teaching antiracism and you know, like actual history.  The right is just labelling this as a "CRT" boogey man because they don't want antiracism taught in schools.  They can't even define what CRT theory is.
> 
> It's funny to see you and your friends on opposite sides BTW.


Glad it keeps you amused.

Even ‘anti-racism” is a problem as a term.  Do you mean teaching kids not to discriminate or have bias?  Or do you mean teaching them Ibrahm Kendi’s specific philosophy?  They are not the same.  

They don’t even agree on the definition of the word “racism”.   The traditional defintion requires malice.  Kendi‘s definition requires power, but not malice.  The shift in terms makes a real difference in a classroom discussion, and not for the better.

I’d be more impressed with the “just teaching history” claim if they taught more of it.  Most people end up thinking that slavery was primarily an American institution, and lasted about 250 years.  Nowhere close to true.  But that’s the impression you get if you think that slavery started in 1619 in Virginia and ended in 1865 in Texas.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Link?
> 
> The descriptions I have seen could apply to anything, including the history classes I took in the 1980s.
> 
> ...


The problem espola and husker have is a derivative of the following.

-Pretty much every article I have read in defense of CRT does so in generalities. They never discuss the core underlying belief system that is the foundation of CRT. I suspect most of the writers are just passing along what they heard and have not bothered to actually look. The few that do, know that if they wrote what the core belief system is, people would immediately turn away from it. So instead they talk about generalities.

Lets take a look at some of the foundational thought of CRT.

_"Firstly, racism is ordinary: the overall ethos of majority culture promotes and promulgates a notion of *“color-blindness” and “meritocracy.”* These two notions are mutually intertwined and serve to marginalize certain enclaves of people—predominately people of color. Color-blindness and meritocratic rhetoric serve two primary functions: Critical Race Theory 7 first, they allow whites to feel consciously irresponsible for the hardships people of color face and encounter daily and, secondly, *they also maintain whites’ power and strongholds within society*."_

So here the first tenant holds that the concept of being color blind (not judging people by their color) and you can get ahead by hard work (meritocracy) are in fact not good things, but in fact racist in nature.

So they are telling you essentially yes you cannot be color blind and meritocracy is a bad thing.

That is a rather divisive concept and one that tells people hard work isn't the way to get a head.

Go ahead and defend that espola and husker....feel free

_"Secondly, Bell’s (1980) theory of interest convergence is a critical component within the cogs of CRT. Common sense beliefs are formulated by the majority “status quo.” The beliefs created by the majority—the haves—oppress minority groups—the have-nots and have-too-littles. Stated more precisely, interest convergence is the notion *that whites will allow and support racial justice/progress to the extent that there is something positive in it for them*, or a “convergence” between the interests of whites and non-whites. CRT focuses on informing the public how certain stories act and *serve to silence and distort certain enclaves of people and cultures (typically people of color)*"_

So here the theory states that it is whitey even today that is holding down people of color.

Kids are being taught that whites are racist today and our norms are not simply cultural norms, but things imposed by the white culture to hold down people of color.

Again this is terribly divisive. And if one looks at the arc of US history you see that this flies in the fact that today minorities are increasingly are sports/media icons, run biz, have been in top political positions, etc.

This type of thinking creates an us vs the whites type of attitude. CRT is not in fact trying to help the races get along, in fact to the contrary they are singling out a race (white) as the root of much of the evil they think is in the country. And they want to teach this to the kids? And the argument is it is a way to bring about harmony and understanding?

Espola and Husker...what part of point 2 are you the biggest fan of?

_"Fourthly, the idea of storytelling comes from its powerful, persuasive, and explanatory ability t*o unlearn beliefs that are commonly believed to be true.* CRT calls this concept “storytelling” and “counter-storytelling.” This dichotomy—storytelling and counter-storytelling—is predicated upon the belief that schools are neutral spaces that treat everyone justly; however, close examination refutes this: simply evaluating graduation rates accomplishes this. *School curricula continue to be structured around mainstream white, middle-class values*. There continues to be a widening of the racial achievement gap (the separation of students of color’s achievement and the achievement of Anglo-Americans). Whose needs do these values and curricula serve? It is not students of color? Hackman and Rauscher (2004) *draw attention to the fact that under the guise of mainstream curriculum certain enclaves of students become marginalized through curriculum and praxis that are insensitive and inequitable."*_

Here they tenant is that learning as we know it is somehow white in nature. And that somehow what we teach is unattainable or beyond what people of color can possibly learn. As if learning a language (English) or learning math, or learning history is somehow easier for whites because of the color of their skin and hard for people of color.

So the solution is to what? Dumb down the curriculum? Get rid of AP classes etc. This is what they advocate.

Defend that espola and husker?

_"Fifthly, whites have actually been recipients of civil rights legislation."_

That in an interesting concept no?

"_The irony is that, although *whites have undeniably been the recipients of civil rights legislation, it has also been verified that affirmative action, too, best serves whites* (e.g., Delgado & Stefancic, 2001; Delgado, 2009). Delgado (2009) exhorts and explicitly requests that “[…] we should demystify, interrogate, and destabilize affirmative action. The program was designed by others to promote their purposes, not ours”_

Go read other defenders of CRT who talk about the actual tenants. 

If you can get through those and come out thinking yeah...this is what we should teach kids...Mao and the Cultural Revolution applaud you.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem espola and husker have is a derivative of the following.
> 
> -Pretty much every article I have read in defense of CRT does so in generalities. They never discuss the core underlying belief system that is the foundation of CRT. I suspect most of the writers are just passing along what they heard and have not bothered to actually look. The few that do, know that if they wrote what the core belief system is, people would immediately turn away from it. So instead they talk about generalities.
> 
> ...


By the way the above explanation of the tenants are not coming from someone against CRT. They are written by a proponent of the belief system.

And if one bothers to read other supporters of the system who talk about the actual beliefs, this is what you are going to get. 

We should absolutely fight against this incredibly divisive and harmful ideology being taught to millions of kids.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> We should absolutely fight against this incredibly divisive and harmful ideology being taught to millions of kids.


What makes it so insidious is that it is presented as merely looking at racism and trying to understand. On its face that is at worst a neutral sounding statement and at best something positive. So most people who don't bother actually researching it think...yeah that sounds good...why would you be against that. And that is how problems start. And that is why now as it is spreading and people are getting an up close look at it, they are starting to recoil against it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Why would you say I like it?  What part of the details of CRT have I expressed like for?


Clearly based on your comments you like it. You think criticism of it is simply right wing. 

You have yet to express which parts of it endears it to you. 

I have in an above post laid out some of the tenants of the theory written by a proponent of it. Which parts do you find charming and worthwhile?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Do you think anyone should change their behavior because of this?  Should clinicians change their treatments?
> 
> From the poster above his right shoulder --
> "I care, so I wear a mask,
> There's no need to ask"





dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  They do not come close to eliminating transmission.


From the poster above his left shoulder --


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

Here is some more of that good ole can we all just get along stuff. 

Nah...just kidding. Blaming whites and creating division is now on the up and up.

And before you say...some poster off Twitter? No the Smithsonian had this up and only took it down after much deserved criticism. Despite their temporary setback...they will continue on with this madness.


----------



## watfly (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Here is some more of that good ole can we all just get along stuff.
> 
> Nah...just kidding. Blaming whites and creating division is now on the up and up.
> 
> ...


Stereotype much?

The worst thing about this poster is it implies other races are the opposite of this?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> Stereotype much?
> 
> The worst thing about this poster is it implies other races are the opposite of this?


Stereotype much? That was at the Smithsonian. I didn't randomly pull it off some website.

I don't think that be at the Smithsonian? Do you? Fortunately they pulled it down. I agree it is a terrible poster. Shocked they had it up. The fact they has it up shows how insidious this theory is in my opinion


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Link?
> 
> The descriptions I have seen could apply to anything, including the history classes I took in the 1980s.
> 
> ...


What makes you think that CRT proponents are asking for something which didn’t exist 40 years ago in all white suburban public schools?


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem espola and husker have is a derivative of the following.
> 
> -Pretty much every article I have read in defense of CRT does so in generalities. They never discuss the core underlying belief system that is the foundation of CRT. I suspect most of the writers are just passing along what they heard and have not bothered to actually look. The few that do, know that if they wrote what the core belief system is, people would immediately turn away from it. So instead they talk about generalities.
> 
> ...


A few points --

You didn't identify the source of your quotes.

You are asking me to defend your obvious misinterpretation of the theories you quote.  Why would you think I would do that?  Are you just being argumentative to cover up your ignorance?

Who are the "actual tenants"?


----------



## watfly (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Stereotype much? That was at the Smithsonian. I didn't randomly pull it off some website.
> 
> I don't think that be at the Smithsonian? Do you? Fortunately they pulled it down. I agree it is a terrible poster. Shocked they had it up


Sorry Hound, comment not directed at you, but at the creator of the poster.    The poster is wholly inappropriate, its not favorable to either blacks or whites.  It just shows you the power of a group think narrative that the Smithsonian would even consider putting it up.  An example of the dangers of pure political correctness.  I don't see how separating us into monolithic groups does anything to help combat racism.


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Clearly based on your comments you like it. You think criticism of it is simply right wing.
> 
> You have yet to express which parts of it endears it to you.
> 
> I have in an above post laid out some of the tenants of the theory written by a proponent of it. Which parts do you find charming and worthwhile?


Who are these tenants again?  Maybe I should talk to them.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Here is some more of that good ole can we all just get along stuff.
> 
> Nah...just kidding. Blaming whites and creating division is now on the up and up.
> 
> ...


Is this going to be placed in a 3rd grade syllabus in Louden County, VA?


----------



## what-happened (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Who are these tenants again?  Maybe I should talk to them.


You are pretty good at this - not really engaging or providing anything foundational.  Kinda like digging a foxhole in mud with a half functioning E-tool..


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Here is some more of that good ole can we all just get along stuff.
> 
> Nah...just kidding. Blaming whites and creating division is now on the up and up.
> 
> ...


This is not the time for Tortilla chip projectiles!!


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Is this going to be placed in a 3rd grade syllabus in Louden County, VA?


The AMHAAC poster includes many items and I see many of them as unarguably admirable traits.  I'm surprised about DH's "shocked" response since the poster doesn't say anywhere that those observations about American life are bad things, it just points out that they exist.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> The AMHAAC poster includes many items and I see many of them as unarguably admirable traits.  I'm surprised about DH's "shocked" response since the poster doesn't say anywhere that those observations about American life are bad things, it just points out that they exist.


Now have a listen to the right shoulder


----------



## crush (Jun 25, 2021)

Well folks, it looks were back to what this has always been about.  I wont go too much in the rabbit hole for mistreatment of kids because frankly too many men are asleep.  So all guys like dad and espola have left is division, cheating, lying and blaming all this on white people.  Insane!!!  Bring it on boys.  I'm betting that 80% of us Americans want fairness first and not cheaters in charge.  I think we can convince 10% of the 20% to come over.  The Military will take care of the rest.  Fix it now please!!!  Little cheaters get caught red handed and what do they do?


----------



## watfly (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> The AMHAAC poster includes many items and I see many of them as unarguably admirable traits.  I'm surprised about DH's "shocked" response since the poster doesn't say anywhere that those observations about American life are bad things, it just points out that they exist.


I have a piece of property in Florida that I will sell you cheap.  It's waterfront, unobstructed views, very quiet, diverse wildlife, no neighbors...all admirable traits for a property.


----------



## crush (Jun 25, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> A few points --
> 
> You didn't identify the source of your quotes.
> 
> ...


Per usual you don't actual make a case for what you believe. 

You usual song and dance. You criticize something and then when asked to articulate what you believe you move on to more questions. 

Tell me why you are defending CRT. 

Try that.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> Sorry Hound, comment not directed at you, but at the creator of the poster.    The poster is wholly inappropriate, its not favorable to either blacks or whites.  It just shows you the power of a group think narrative that the Smithsonian would even consider putting it up.  An example of the dangers of pure political correctness.  I don't see how separating us into monolithic groups does anything to help combat racism.


No worries. 

And your comments are completely correct.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You are pretty good at this - not really engaging or providing anything foundational.  Kinda like digging a foxhole in mud with a half functioning E-tool..


That is what he always does. 

He never actually makes an argument pro or against anything. So there is no engagement on his part.


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> I have a piece of property in Florida that I will sell you cheap.  It's waterfront, unobstructed views, very quiet, diverse wildlife, no neighbors...all admirable traits for a property.


Your attempt at a diversion will not fend off the next question -- Which of the traits in the poster do you not find to be admirable?


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is what he always does.
> 
> He never actually makes an argument pro or against anything. So there is no engagement on his part.


You just claimed (look up the page) that I am pro-CRT (whatever that is in your mind).


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is what he always does.
> 
> He never actually makes an argument pro or against anything. So there is no engagement on his part.


Best thing to do is IGNORE….unless, of course, you enjoy playing his little games.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> The AMHAAC poster includes many items and I see many of them as unarguably admirable traits.  I'm surprised about DH's "shocked" response since the poster doesn't say anywhere that those observations about American life are bad things, it just points out that they exist.


The poster is ignorant on so many levels.  To attribute these traits to jus white people is offensive on so many levels.  Hard work, self reliance, etc is a white trait?  Don't tell that to Asians, Hispanics, and Black Americans - I'm sure I left someone out.  I'm fine with academics having less than intellectual debates.  I'm also fine with ridiculing the crap out of things like this - because it's dumb.


----------



## watfly (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Your attempt at a diversion will not fend off the next question -- Which of the traits in the poster do you not find to be admirable?


Yeah, that was a pretty weak diversion on my part, I could learn a few pointers from you if I paid more attention.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 25, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Wonderful.  Any kind of learning is ok?
> 
> For my CRT classes, I will focus on prime factorization, fractions, and long division.
> 
> ...


I’ll let the General enlighten the class


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Per usual you don't actual make a case for what you believe.
> 
> You usual song and dance. You criticize something and then when asked to articulate what you believe you move on to more questions.
> 
> ...


I don't defend the pile of swamp muck that you seem to believe is CRT.


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> Yeah, that was a pretty weak diversion on my part, I could learn a few pointers from you if I paid more attention.


You didn't answer the question.


----------



## whatithink (Jun 25, 2021)

what-happened said:


> The poster is ignorant on so many levels.  To attribute these traits to jus white people is offensive on so many levels.  Hard work, self reliance, etc is a white trait?  Don't tell that to Asians, Hispanics, and Black Americans - I'm sure I left someone out.  I'm fine with academics having less than intellectual debates.  I'm also fine with ridiculing the crap out of things like this - because it's dumb.


How are they just attributing them to just white people? The poster is specific to white people. I'd assume that if they have one for Asians, Hispanics or Black Americans, they could repeat many or all the same traits.


----------



## watfly (Jun 25, 2021)

whatithink said:


> How are they just attributing them to just white people? The poster is specific to white people. I'd assume that if they have one for Asians, Hispanics or Black Americans, they could repeat many or all the same traits.


I sure as hell hope not.  While there are admirable traits in the poster that aren't inherent to any race there are some blatant stereotypes.  Skinny blond girls?  Even if it were remotely true its irrelevant to the conversation.  The poster clearly presents whiteness in the pejorative.  The idea that there are other race counter-points to these traits based on stereotyping to be put on a poster is disturbing.

I can only hope that the poster was done in the name of really bad satire.


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I’ll let the General enlighten the class


The General is correct in a general sense, although he got a few details wrong.  It's 3/5 of a person, not 3/4, and I don't know who he thinks was a Green Beret, unless that was meant as a passive-aggressive jab at Jughead.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't defend the pile of swamp muck that you seem to believe is CRT.


It isn't my belief, I simply repost what supporters write. Try reading sometime. Look up Kendi. One of the main figures pushing this divisiveness. Read what he believes and what he preaches.


Espola. You my friend are a troll. I don't usually call people names on this board. But you truly are. You never engage. You never take a stance other than saying LINK? You never actually contribute a thought or an opinion.

I disagree with @dad4 A LOT. But at least he is more than willing to give his perspective on things. And have an actual back and forth. You don't.

Here is another example from a proponent of CRT. Their focus is on teaching that whites are oppressors whether they know it or not. And thus they are teaching kids that their skin color if white means they are an oppressor. So you are teaching white kids to feel some guilt about something they have nothing to do with...while at the same time teaching others that their issues arise from whites. That isn't in any sense a unifying and uplifting model to follow or be teaching people. 

“I have come to see white privilege as an invisible package of unearned assets that I can count on cashing in each day, but about which I was “meant” to remain oblivious… *My schooling gave me no training in seeing myself as an oppressor*, as an unfairly advantaged person, or as a participant in a damaged culture. I was taught to see myself as an individual whose moral state depended on her individual moral will.”
– Dr. Peggy McIntosh, _White Privilege, Unpacking the Invisible Knapsack_

Here is more of this "englightened" thinking they want to advance in schools. 

_*"Not* acknowledging the effects of historic and current racism sends a message that these issues are not white people’s problem — when in fact, the hateful violence we have witnessed and the inequities that exist today in our schools and communities are *directly tied to our shared history as white people.* "_

So no @espola this is not something that I believe and the right made up. One simply needs to read what the proponents of this theory say in their own writings. If you were ever so inclined to find out you could find source material.


----------



## whatithink (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> I sure as hell hope not.  While there are admirable traits in the poster that aren't inherent to any race there are some blatant stereotypes.  Skinny blond girls?  Even if it were remotely true its irrelevant to the conversation.  The poster clearly presents whiteness in the pejorative.  The idea that there are other race counter-points to these traits based on stereotyping to be put on a poster is disturbing.
> 
> I can only hope that the poster was done in the name of really bad satire.


My read of the poster is that the context is that American traits or traits that are encouraged and admired in the US are white in origin. I could have that all wrong, but if you took out all the white-speak and just headed it with "Traits admired in the USA", people may have a different take on it.

I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing with the content, but you can take the various categories and correlate

Rugged Individualism - liberty, freedom, personal rights
Family structure - isn't every pol generally a good family man/woman (slowly changing) ... infidelity being a near (public) mortal blow
Emphasis on scientific method - yeah, so that's obviously bunk as everyone has their own facts these days 
History - more true than not, history is always biased to the victor, nothing different in the US
Protestant Work Ethic - very American outlook, but less Protestant and more just work ethic
Religion - for sure (God Bless America, In God we Trust, the prior heading saying "Protestant" etc.)
Status, Power & Authority - for many, nationally we're the richest country & have the best military so we must be the best country in the world, right?
Future Orientation - check
Time - meh
Aesthetics - BS
Holidays - sure
Justice - yes
Competition - yes
Communication - not so much so on most of this (anymore)


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

whatithink said:


> My read of the poster is that the context is that American traits or traits that are encouraged and admired in the US are white in origin. I could have that all wrong, but if you took out all the white-speak and just headed it with "Traits admired in the USA", people may have a different take on it.
> 
> I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing with the content, but you can take the various categories and correlate
> 
> ...


Nice response.  I don't agree with everything, for example, your comment on politician's marital fidelity.  At least they used to keep it quiet until historians wrote posthumous tell-all books.


----------



## whatithink (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Nice response.  I don't agree with everything, for example, your comment on politician's marital fidelity.  At least they used to keep it quiet until historians wrote posthumous tell-all books.


My point is the different viewpoint on marital fidelity in the US versus elsewhere, e.g. look at Johnson in the UK, the Prime Minister and a serial adulterer, never mind the French where having affairs is just what you do etc. Pols in the US have to be seen to be family people, roll out the spouse and kids for the campaign etc. I don't agree that it is prevalent anymore on the spousal roles, but then again misogyny and mansplaining are not exactly rare occurrences in public life these days either.


----------



## watfly (Jun 25, 2021)

whatithink said:


> My read of the poster is that the context is that American traits or traits that are encouraged and admired in the US are white in origin. I could have that all wrong, but if you took out all the white-speak and just headed it with "Traits admired in the USA", people may have a different take on it.
> 
> I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing with the content, but you can take the various categories and correlate
> 
> ...


I hear what your saying but it's obvious that the poster is trying to convey that American values are white values.  With the implication that American values aren't black, Hispanic, Asian, etc values, as a result, American values and America are inherently racist (i.e. the narrative that America is systematically racist).  I believe there are a lot of values that all races share that make us American and we should focus on this common ground.

Again I have an issue with assuming races are monolithic, which is what is being said when you summarize a race's attributes on a single poster.  This is the epitome of stereotyping which is what got us into trouble in the first place.

IDK, lately its just seems to me that were trying to fight racism with racism.  We should always remember our history, but let's not repeat it.


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It isn't my belief, I simply repost what supporters write. Try reading sometime. Look up Kendi. One of the main figures pushing this divisiveness. Read what he believes and what he preaches.
> 
> 
> Espola. You my friend are a troll. I don't usually call people names on this board. But you truly are. You never engage. You never take a stance other than saying LINK? You never actually contribute a thought or an opinion.
> ...


Dr. McIntosh's paper is over 30 years old.  Is that what you mean by CRT, in the current time frame?

Who is the "they" that wants to advance the "what" in which schools?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Dr. McIntosh's paper is over 30 years old.  Is that what you mean by CRT, in the current time frame?
> 
> Who is the "they" that wants to advance the "what" in which schools?


Their sources haven’t figured the angle on that yet so for now they will just continue working the theoretical possibility of “if” without quite admitting that.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Dr. McIntosh's paper is over 30 years old.  Is that what you mean by CRT, in the current time frame?
> 
> Who is the "they" that wants to advance the "what" in which schools?


That foxhole is now about 3 inches deep and the E-tool can no longer lock in place.


----------



## whatithink (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> I hear what your saying but it's obvious that the poster is trying to convey that American values are white values.  With the implication that American values aren't black, Hispanic, Asian, etc values, as a result, American values and America are inherently racist (i.e. the narrative that America is systematically racist).  I believe there are a lot of values that all races share that make us American and we should focus on this common ground.
> 
> Again I have an issue with assuming races are monolithic, which is what is being said when you summarize a race's attributes on a single poster.  This is the epitome of stereotyping which is what got us into trouble in the first place.
> 
> IDK, lately its just seems to me that were trying to fight racism with racism.  We should always remember our history, but let's not repeat it.


Its a very complex subject. I don't read the poster as saying that the values are racist, just that American traits or values predominantly originated from whites, as whites had the power. Even in that, you could say that it was a subset of whites, with the "Protestant Work Ethic" as stated being the most obvious example (and one could take that as a slur against non-Protestants whites without even getting into the "No Irish, Blacks or Dogs" signs etc.). TBH, I don't think white in this context is even a race thing, but more of a class thing, whereby Protestant whites (WASPs) have "ruled the US and imbued its resultants prevalent "values".

I think values & traits are environmentally driven. In that context I think most Americans would look at most of the traits/values and think "yeah". IDK if they all originated as white mind, or if that was an assumption of the person/panel who compiled it or just sloppy work.

The "remember our history, but let's not repeat it" is often quoted, but the problem with that is whose history are you remembering. Education is biased. States can "teach" different version of history by omission or interpretation. That's actually a pretty horrendous thing if you think about it. Its a disservice to the future, and you "reap what you sow" to quote something else much used.


----------



## watfly (Jun 25, 2021)

whatithink said:


> The "remember our history, but let's not repeat it" is often quoted, but the problem with that is whose history are you remembering. Education is biased. States can "teach" different version of history by omission or interpretation. That's actually a pretty horrendous thing if you think about it. Its a disservice to the future, and you "reap what you sow" to quote something else much used.


Maybe I was asleep in history class 40 years ago, but I have no memory of learning about Japanese internment, Juneteenth (at least that term) and the Tulsa Massacre, to name a few.   100% we should be teaching our unvarnished history.   My concern is that with things like CRT is that we are teaching a narrative with a reparational intent.  We are not responsible for the sins of our forefathers unless we repeat those same mistakes.  We can never fully compensate for what has happened in the past, but dwelling on it into perpetuity is not productive and making uninvolved parties bear the burden only increases the divide.  I just can't comprehend how further division solves the problem.  Now that's not to say that we should ignore current problems, we should address those head on.


----------



## whatithink (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> Maybe I was asleep in history class 40 years ago, but I have no memory of learning about Japanese internment, Juneteenth (at least that term) and the Tulsa Massacre, to name a few.   100% we should be teaching our unvarnished history.   My concern is that with things like CRT is that we are teaching a narrative with a reparational intent.  We are not responsible for the sins of our forefathers unless we repeat those same mistakes.  We can never fully compensate for what has happened in the past, but dwelling on it into perpetuity is not productive and making uninvolved parties bear the burden only increases the divide.  I just can't comprehend how further division solves the problem.  Now that's not to say that we should ignore current problems, we should address those head on.


Agree. There are plenty of inequalities in society to address and inequality has no color bias. Spending time, effort and money on raising everyone based on need should be a societal goal. Everyone in society reaps the benefit longer term.

The fundamental problem, I think, is that politicians get votes based on divisions and appealing to emotions. It is in their interest to foster division and to incite culture wars. That way people vote against their own self interest. The 2 party system won't resolve it and actually exacerbates it.

And as an aside, my forefathers were not here way back when, so count me out of the reparations fund, thanks very much.


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## crush (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> Maybe I was asleep in history class 40 years ago, but I have no memory of learning about Japanese internment, Juneteenth (at least that term) and the Tulsa Massacre, to name a few.   100% we should be teaching our unvarnished history.   My concern is that with things like CRT is that we are teaching a narrative with a reparational intent. * We are not responsible for the sins of our forefathers unless we repeat those same mistakes.*  We can never fully compensate for what has happened in the past, but dwelling on it into perpetuity is not productive and making uninvolved parties bear the burden only increases the divide.  I just can't comprehend how further division solves the problem.  Now that's not to say that we should ignore current problems, we should address those head on.


Brother Ezekiel said something similar back in the day.  My dad's mistakes and sins are his alone.  If I happen to choose the same mistake he did when he was a youngster, that should be separate, not held against me, no?  That's harsh to say I can;t repeat my old man's mistakes.  Not fair bro at all!!!  Each human or soul is responsible for their own actions.  Actions come from our own thoughts.  We all have been brainwashed from TV, movies, books and even from our parents at times.  I was adopted so I have no real parents or bloodline to be worried about.  One of my best friends is a trust fund kid.  He has to obey his old man or he will get zero each month.    

*"The one who sins is the one who will die. The child will not share the guilt of the parent, nor will the parent share the guilt of the child. The righteousness of the righteous will be credited to them, and the wickedness of the wicked will be charged against them."  Ezk 18:20*


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## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

whatithink said:


> My point is the different viewpoint on marital fidelity in the US versus elsewhere, e.g. look at Johnson in the UK, the Prime Minister and a serial adulterer, never mind the French where having affairs is just what you do etc. Pols in the US have to be seen to be family people, roll out the spouse and kids for the campaign etc. I don't agree that it is prevalent anymore on the spousal roles, but then again misogyny and mansplaining are not exactly rare occurrences in public life these days either.





Hüsker Dü said:


> I’ll let the General enlighten the class


----------



## Emma (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> Maybe I was asleep in history class 40 years ago, but I have no memory of learning about Japanese internment, Juneteenth (at least that term) and the Tulsa Massacre, to name a few.   100% we should be teaching our unvarnished history.   My concern is that with things like CRT is that we are teaching a narrative with a reparational intent.  We are not responsible for the sins of our forefathers unless we repeat those same mistakes.  We can never fully compensate for what has happened in the past, but dwelling on it into perpetuity is not productive and making uninvolved parties bear the burden only increases the divide.  I just can't comprehend how further division solves the problem.  Now that's not to say that we should ignore current problems, we should address those head on.


You studied about WWII in history without learning about the Japanese Internment Camps?  I would imagine that should have been taught in response to how the US reacted to Pearl Harbor bombing. You were probably asleep during the beginning of the WWII period.   Juneteenth is based out of Texas and history classes in Texas should have taught it since it's a Texas holiday.  Tulsa Massacre should be taught to residents of Oklahoma.  Regardless of political leanings by teachers or state assemblies, Slavery and it's history in the US should be taught as it was the basis of growth in the US and major part of our history, including the Civil War.  Whether or not an individual supports reparations due to their education on slavery and it's history in the USA, should not be the basis of an educator's/politician's decision to teach history.  We should let people decide on their own, through learning of all historical events, whether the individual supports reparation or not. 

I don't support reparations but I don't agree with hiding history in order to prevent people from deciding whether they support or not support reparations. 

Rewriting history to a country's favor is a communist/dictatorship ideology, not a democratic one.  We should allow free thought based on real facts and not make facts political, an ideology a democratic society is based on.  Politics should be how we each want to solve an issue through use of our government, not the facts we use to come to that decision.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 25, 2021)

Emma said:


> You studied about WWII in history without learning about the Japanese Internment Camps?  I would imagine that should have been taught in response to how the US reacted to Pearl Harbor bombing. You were probably asleep during the beginning of the WWII period.   Juneteenth is based out of Texas and history classes in Texas should have taught it since it's a Texas holiday.  Tulsa Massacre should be taught to residents of Oklahoma.  Regardless of political leanings by teachers or state assemblies, Slavery and it's history in the US should be taught as it was the basis of growth in the US and major part of our history, including the Civil War.  Whether or not an individual supports reparations due to their education on slavery and it's history in the USA, should not be the basis of an educator's/politician's decision to teach history.  We should let people decide on their own, through learning of all historical events, whether the individual supports reparation or not.
> 
> I don't support reparations but I don't agree with hiding history in order to prevent people from deciding whether they support or not support reparations.
> 
> Rewriting history to a country's favor is a communist/dictatorship ideology, not a democratic one.  We should allow free thought based on real facts and not make facts political, an ideology a democratic society is based on.  Politics should be how we each want to solve an issue through use of our government, not the facts we use to come to that decision.


The problem with teaching history is that within a subject matter there are too many microsubjects to teach, so some discretion needs to be used, and how you utilize that discretion might be dictated by ideology: do I make my students read Adam Smith or Karl Marx; do I include the Lincoln-Douglas debates or make them read F. Douglas too (I was actually on a committee that had this argument in college); in study WWI do I include just the English perspective or also the German?  Then there are the credits.  My son's elementary school 2 years ago discovered that when they made a black history week.  We Latinos then insisted on a Hispanic Cultural heritage week.  Then those of Armenian, Persian, Asian and Jewish descent came out too to claim their heritage weeks, not to mention that we now need to include women (even though the sad reality is that most history was created for the longest time by men).  Then there's what takes and interpretations to include: was the civil war purely about slavery or was it about holding the union together or was it about states rights?; was the Revolution about liberty or was it a bunch of less rich white men complaining about very rich white men imposing taxes on them?; was the Russian revolution a heroic struggle of the workers or an experiment doomed to failure that would end in totalitarianism?  So history is not as easy as "just the facts".


----------



## crush (Jun 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem with teaching history is that within a subject matter there are too many microsubjects to teach, so some discretion needs to be used, and how you utilize that discretion might be dictated by ideology: do I make my students read Adam Smith or Karl Marx; do I include the Lincoln-Douglas debates or make them read F. Douglas too (I was actually on a committee that had this argument in college); in study WWI do I include just the English perspective or also the German?  Then there are the credits.  My son's elementary school 2 years ago discovered that when they made a black history week.  We Latinos then insisted on a Hispanic Cultural heritage week.  Then those of Armenian, Persian, Asian and Jewish descent came out too to claim their heritage weeks, not to mention that we now need to include women (even though the sad reality is that most history was created for the longest time by men).  Then there's what takes and interpretations to include: was the civil war purely about slavery or was it about holding the union together or was it about states rights?; was the Revolution about liberty or was it a bunch of less rich white men complaining about very rich white men imposing taxes on them?; was the Russian revolution a heroic struggle of the workers or an experiment doomed to failure that would end in totalitarianism?  So history is not as easy as "just the facts".


History is history to one's own experience.  I celebrate "National Adoption Day."  What is National Adoption Day you ask?  
*History of National Adoption Day*
Started by a coalition of groups which include the Children’s Action Network, The Dave Thomas Foundation for Adoption, The Alliance for Children’s Rights, and the Freddie Mac Foundation, National Adoption Day became a reality in November of 2000. Over the years, sponsors of this day have worked with various state foster care agencies, law firms, courts, and child advocates to complete foster care applications. By 2003, over 120 jurisdictions participated in adopting over 3,000 children. In 2011, over 300 events were organized. Overall, over 58,000 children, as of 2016, have been adopted on this holiday. 

*National Adoption Day*
Observed every year on the Saturday before Thanksgiving, National Adoption Day is a holiday in which communities and courts all over the U.S come together to finalize the adoptions of thousands of children who are in foster care.

The 2022 National Adoption Day falls on my birthday, November 19th.  How ironic


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 25, 2021)

Emma said:


> You studied about WWII in history without learning about the Japanese Internment Camps?  I would imagine that should have been taught in response to how the US reacted to Pearl Harbor bombing. You were probably asleep during the beginning of the WWII period.   Juneteenth is based out of Texas and history classes in Texas should have taught it since it's a Texas holiday.  Tulsa Massacre should be taught to residents of Oklahoma.  Regardless of political leanings by teachers or state assemblies, Slavery and it's history in the US should be taught as it was the basis of growth in the US and major part of our history, including the Civil War.  Whether or not an individual supports reparations due to their education on slavery and it's history in the USA, should not be the basis of an educator's/politician's decision to teach history.  We should let people decide on their own, through learning of all historical events, whether the individual supports reparation or not.
> 
> I don't support reparations but I don't agree with hiding history in order to prevent people from deciding whether they support or not support reparations.
> 
> Rewriting history to a country's favor is a communist/dictatorship ideology, not a democratic one.  We should allow free thought based on real facts and not make facts political, an ideology a democratic society is based on.  Politics should be how we each want to solve an issue through use of our government, not the facts we use to come to that decision.


The truth will set you free.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Dr. McIntosh's paper is over 30 years old.  Is that what you mean by CRT, in the current time frame?
> 
> Who is the "they" that wants to advance the "what" in which schools?


You ever make an argument or actual point?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The truth will set you free.


To bad you chose to the opposite


----------



## watfly (Jun 25, 2021)

Emma said:


> You studied about WWII in history without learning about the Japanese Internment Camps?  I would imagine that should have been taught in response to how the US reacted to Pearl Harbor bombing. You were probably asleep during the beginning of the WWII period.   Juneteenth is based out of Texas and history classes in Texas should have taught it since it's a Texas holiday.  Tulsa Massacre should be taught to residents of Oklahoma.  Regardless of political leanings by teachers or state assemblies, Slavery and it's history in the US should be taught as it was the basis of growth in the US and major part of our history, including the Civil War.  Whether or not an individual supports reparations due to their education on slavery and it's history in the USA, should not be the basis of an educator's/politician's decision to teach history.  We should let people decide on their own, through learning of all historical events, whether the individual supports reparation or not.
> 
> I don't support reparations but I don't agree with hiding history in order to prevent people from deciding whether they support or not support reparations.
> 
> Rewriting history to a country's favor is a communist/dictatorship ideology, not a democratic one.  We should allow free thought based on real facts and not make facts political, an ideology a democratic society is based on.  Politics should be how we each want to solve an issue through use of our government, not the facts we use to come to that decision.


You may be right about the internment camps, my recollection from nearly 40 years ago is very hazy.  If youre ever on your way to Bishop or Mammoth, I highly recommend stopping at Manzanar.  Its hard to believe that hapoened in our backyard.  There is also a great documentary on the internees that snuck out of camp to fish the local creeks for trout.


----------



## espola (Jun 25, 2021)

watfly said:


> You may be right about the internment camps, my recollection from nearly 40 years ago is very hazy.  If youre ever on your way to Bishop or Mammoth, I highly recommend stopping at Manzanar.  Its hard to believe that hapoened in our backyard.  There is also a great documentary on the internees that snuck out of camp to fish the local creeks for trout.


Famous nature photographer Ansel Adams was assigned to take pictures at Manzanar.  The Library of Congress has a display of them online here -- 





__





						Search Results: "" -              Prints & Photographs Online Catalog (Library of Congress)
					

The Prints and Photographs Online               Catalog (PPOC) contains catalog               records and digital images representing               a rich cross-section of               still pictures held by the Prints & Photographs               Division and, in some cases, other units of the...




					www.loc.gov
				




Adams published a book of the photographs available on Amazon or city libraries --

https://sandiego.bibliocommons.com/item/show/683038161


----------



## crush (Jun 26, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11054


----------



## dad4 (Jun 26, 2021)

espola said:


> Dr. McIntosh's paper is over 30 years old.  Is that what you mean by CRT, in the current time frame?
> 
> Who is the "they" that wants to advance the "what" in which schools?


You’re welcome to post a coherent definition if whatever you believe CRT means in a schools context.

So far, the winning definition seems to be “making sure those white kids learn to check their privilege”.  If you have a better definition, get it out there.


----------



## espola (Jun 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re welcome to post a coherent definition if whatever you believe CRT means in a schools context.
> 
> So far, the winning definition seems to be “making sure those white kids learn to check their privilege”.  If you have a better definition, get it out there.


If that is the definition you are working with, I can understand why you are upset.

The original authors of studies of CRT define it more like a study of how centuries of institutionalized racism are still remnant in current, laws, social norms, and economic interests.


----------



## espola (Jun 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I’ll let the General enlighten the class


Tucker Carlson laughs this off with "He's not just a pig.  He's stupid."

Tucker's stupid pig has degrees or certificates from Princeton, Columbia, MIT, Naval War College, and Army Airborne School.


----------



## crush (Jun 26, 2021)

*Dr. F is moving the goal posts again and lying through his teeth again.  I warned all of you this guy was up to no good and lies to make a living.  *
*Fauci shifts herd immunity goalposts, now says as much as 90% may be needed to halt coronavirus*
*Fauci indicated that he based his guidance on public polling*


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 26, 2021)

espola said:


> If that is the definition you are working with, I can understand why you are upset.
> 
> The original authors of studies of CRT define it more like a study of how centuries of institutionalized racism are still remnant in current, laws, social norms, and economic interests.


Learning how we got where we are. Not anything too earth shattering, unless of course it makes one self-conscious.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 26, 2021)

espola said:


> Tucker Carlson laughs this off with "He's not just a pig.  He's stupid."
> 
> Tucker's stupid pig has degrees or certificates from Princeton, Columbia, MIT, Naval War College, and Army Airborne School.


The age of intentional ignorance and the demeaning of knowledge. They beat on cops, demonize judges and belittle military leaders. Law and order?


----------



## espola (Jun 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Famous nature photographer Ansel Adams was assigned to take pictures at Manzanar.  The Library of Congress has a display of them online here --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 My personal soccer connection to Manzanar --

Back in '76, I was talked into helping coach a rec soccer team in Poway.  I was still in the Navy stationed at Miramar and living in Poway.  My direct supervisor also lived in Poway and his wife was involved in the new Poway Youth Soccer League, at that time only a rec league.  My boss told me that it would be ok with him if I left work early a couple of days a week for practice and that he could juggle the duty roster so that I would be free to make all the Saturday games.  I was assigned as an assistant to a coach who had immigrated from Holland as a boy, coaching a Division 5 boys team.  One of the players was a Japanese boy, who I will call J. F.  At the end of the season, we had our team party at the F. home in North Poway (near Painted Rock Elementary School, for those who know Poway).  Close to the end of the season, my Navy enlistment ran out and I declined the opportunity to coach the same team the next year since I little time for it because I was working a real job then with paid overtime and attending SDSU nights on the GI Bill.

In 1985, when I started dating my current wife, she had friends who had season tickets to the Padres, really good seats a few rows back behind home plate.  On occasion, when they weren't going to games, they let us use their tickets.  I was surprised to find out that J.F.'s family had season tickets in the row in front of us, so we renewed an old friendship.  It was then that I found out that Mrs. F. had been interned at Manzanar when she was a child.  I had driven through the remnants of the camp on my way to or from ski trips at Mammoth, but that was all I knew about it.  She had a lot more to say about it.


----------



## crush (Jun 27, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Jun 27, 2021)

espola said:


> If that is the definition you are working with, I can understand why you are upset.
> 
> The original authors of studies of CRT define it more like a study of how centuries of institutionalized racism are still remnant in current, laws, social norms, and economic interests.


If you want words from the original authors, I think pup provided some.  They did not do much to win me over.

It makes more sense to me to do a better job teaching the history of slavery and segregation, both domestic and internationally.  

But, when your middle and high school classes begin arguing about current situations and policies, then you need a real diversity of opinion.  Otherwise, you have ceased to educate and you have moved into the realm of indoctrination.


----------



## crush (Jun 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you want words from the original authors, I think pup provided some.  They did not do much to win me over.
> 
> It makes more sense to me to do a better job teaching the history of slavery and segregation, both domestic and internationally.
> 
> But, when your middle and high school classes begin arguing about current situations and policies, then you need a real diversity of opinion.  Otherwise, you have ceased to educate and you have moved into the *realm of indoctrination.*


I'm dying to read what Mr. Marx response will be......lol!  If you add "spiritual" before realm, then you can go down the rabbit hole and see the truth of Good vs Evil.  Happy Sunday Dad of 4 and God Bless you and Espola and his wife of some 35 years   Q. Do you think Messy and EOTL were fake accounts that others had passwords to?  I think Espola has or had more than one, that's MOO.  I know of a few other fake accounts from the past that dadhats would use to mess with me.  I can look back and read all the BS and actually know who the users are now.  I have a gift.  I was up against a very stuck up and snobby group of dads who think their better then the rest of us and I can't stand people who walk around like that. Jealousy ran deep a few years ago and people did not like me so they came on here to take me on and I took them on back.  July 3rd is my three year welcome back date.  I was forbidden to come here to post for 4 years from 2014-2018 because of my word to the Docs of certain clubs that had rules on SM platforms that basically said, STFU or your kid will be suspended or worse, kicked off the team if you open your pie hole on SM.  I have decided to end my time here July 3rd for the sake of peace.  I know some will be super happy to hear that news.  Others will think I'm full of poop and will come back on July 4th with some sort of  message of hope of freedom someday.  Others will hope I leave for the sake of my dd future in the sport while still others will miss me.  Anyway, their is only two real reasons I want and will leave after July 3rd, 2021.  Stay tune you crazy looney tunes.....bahhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhaaaabbbbbbahhhhhhhhaaaaaa!!!!!


----------



## espola (Jun 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you want words from the original authors, I think pup provided some.  They did not do much to win me over.
> 
> It makes more sense to me to do a better job teaching the history of slavery and segregation, both domestic and internationally.
> 
> But, when your middle and high school classes begin arguing about current situations and policies, then you need a real diversity of opinion.  Otherwise, you have ceased to educate and you have moved into the realm of indoctrination.


I have no idea what that means.


----------



## dad4 (Jun 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I have no idea what that means.


It just means any decent current events discussion needs a mix of conservative and liberal voices.

"Todays political and social system is the result of historic racism" is a perfectly valid liberal point.  It can be the start of a good discussion, if opposing viewpoints are included and welcomed.

If other viewpoints are discouraged, it can be the signal that warns others to stay quiet, for fear of being called racist.


----------



## espola (Jun 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It just means any decent current events discussion needs a mix of conservative and liberal voices.
> 
> "Todays political and social system is the result of historic racism" is a perfectly valid liberal point.  It can be the start of a good discussion, if opposing viewpoints are included and welcomed.
> 
> If other viewpoints are discouraged, it can be the signal that warns others to stay quiet, for fear of being called racist.


What would you say in opposition to that point?


----------



## what-happened (Jun 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I have no idea what that means.


Ha, sound familiar.  close your eyes tightly and think about education VS indoctrination.  It's pretty simple.


----------



## espola (Jun 27, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Ha, sound familiar.  close your eyes tightly and think about education VS indoctrination.  It's pretty simple.


Nice slogan.  Do you have any facts to discuss?


----------



## espola (Jun 27, 2021)

espola said:


> What would you say in opposition to that point?


TYed Cruz has this to say about it --









						Sen. Cruz Introduces Bill to Block Federal Funding For Critical Race Theory Training | U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas
					

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) today introduced the END CRT Act, which would...




					www.cruz.senate.gov


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 27, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It just means any decent current events discussion needs a mix of conservative and liberal voices.
> 
> "Todays political and social system is the result of historic racism" is a perfectly valid liberal point.  It can be the start of a good discussion, if opposing viewpoints are included and welcomed.
> 
> If other viewpoints are discouraged, it can be the signal that warns others to stay quiet, for fear of being called racist.


Will there be a fact checker on site?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Will there be a fact checker on site?


The main reason many “conservative speakers” have been shunned is their  propensity for fabrication and manipulation of data and reality resulting in their own set of “alternative facts”.


----------



## Glitterhater (Jun 27, 2021)

Nothing to add here except Tucker Carlson is a complete shit stain- no, actually- he's the fly that eats the shit.
I'd love to see Tucker in a room, alone, with the General and a few of his men. We'll see how tough ol' shit stain is.


----------



## espola (Jun 27, 2021)

Glitterhater said:


> Nothing to add here except Tucker Carlson is a complete shit stain- no, actually- he's the fly that eats the shit.
> I'd love to see Tucker in a room, alone, with the General and a few of his men. We'll see how tough ol' shit stain is.


Tucker frequently has that look on his face as if he thought he was going to sneak out a silent fart but got more than he planned.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 27, 2021)

__





						Confronting White Supremacy — FBI
					

Statement by Assistant Director Michael C. McGarrity, Counterterrorism Division, and Deputy Assistant Director Calvin A. Shivers, Criminal Investigative Division, before the House Oversight and Reform Committee, Subcommittee on Civil Rights and Civil Liberties




					www.fbi.gov


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

From Caitlyn Jenner e-mail blast --

*I believe in freedom, and I believe each classroom should be free to teach the truth without the government censoring them.* 

Also, in the same e-mail ==

"I will not stand for critical race theory to be shoved down our children's throats"


----------



## crush (Jun 28, 2021)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> From Caitlyn Jenner e-mail blast --
> 
> *I believe in freedom, and I believe each classroom should be free to teach the truth without the government censoring them.*
> 
> ...


Dudes confused.


----------



## watfly (Jun 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The main reason many “conservative speakers” have been shunned is their  propensity for fabrication and manipulation of data and reality resulting in their own set of “alternative facts”.


Like every Democrat in the confirmation hearing that said ACB would overturn the ACA? Neither party can claim the high road on facts.  To claim otherwise is evidence of a pure partisan.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> Like every Democrat in the confirmation hearing that said ACB would overturn the ACA? Neither party can claim the high road on facts.  To claim otherwise is evidence of a pure partisan.


Who or what is ACB? And what does that have to do with giving conservative voices their due in an educational setting?


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> Like every Democrat in the confirmation hearing that said ACB would overturn the ACA? Neither party can claim the high road on facts.  To claim otherwise is evidence of a pure partisan.


She still has a say in the matter.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Who or what is ACB? And what does that have to do with giving conservative voices their due in an educational setting?


It has nothing to do with conservative voices. 

Most people...including you have never bothered to read and learn about what they actually are teaching or want to teach. It is apparent from your responses that you are simply repeating..."it is simply about learning about our history as it relates to racism/slavery". If you bothered to see what they are doing, it is far more than than.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It has nothing to do with conservative voices.
> 
> Most people...including you have never bothered to read and learn about what they actually are teaching or want to teach. It is apparent from your responses that you are simply repeating..."it is simply about learning about our history as it relates to racism/slavery". If you bothered to see what they are doing, it is far more than than.


What are they doing?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> What are they doing?


I already showed you. 

Your snappy comeback was that some of the foundational writing was 30 yrs ago. As if that makes any kind of difference in terms of the crap they are peddling. It is not as if the current "thinkers" (and I use that term loosely) have not moderated what they are preaching. 

You as usual are being willfully ignorant. If you bothered to read what the leading proponents write about CRT you could actually educate yourself on the topic.


----------



## what-happened (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Nice slogan.  Do you have any facts to discuss?


since when do you discuss facts?  CRT isn't even understood or can be explained by the very same people who swear by it's ideology.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It is not as if the current "thinkers" (and I use that term loosely) have not moderated what they are preaching.


Typo...the "thinkers" are not moderating what the thinkers of 30 yrs ago wrote.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I already showed you.
> 
> Your snappy comeback was that some of the foundational writing was 30 yrs ago. As if that makes any kind of difference in terms of the crap they are peddling. It is not as if the current "thinkers" (and I use that term loosely) have not moderated what they are preaching.
> 
> You as usual are being willfully ignorant. If you bothered to read what the leading proponents write about CRT you could actually educate yourself on the topic.


Educate me.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

what-happened said:


> since when do you discuss facts?  CRT isn't even understood or can be explained by the very same people who swear by it's ideology.


I'm not sure what you mean by "swear by its ideology", but I have posted some rational discussions of CRT on this very thread.  Some people here seem to be eager to discuss something else and call it CRT, but it's hard to pin them down on just what it is that has them so worked up.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Typo...the "thinkers" are not moderating with the thinkers of 30 yrs ago wrote.


That didn't help.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Dudes confused.


"Dude"?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It has nothing to do with conservative voices.
> 
> Most people...including you have never bothered to read and learn about what they actually are teaching or want to teach. It is apparent from your responses that you are simply repeating..."it is simply about learning about our history as it relates to racism/slavery". If you bothered to see what they are doing, it is far more than than.


I never said that and that isn’t what it’s about.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm not sure what you mean by "swear by its ideology", but I have posted some rational discussions of CRT on this very thread.  Some people here seem to be eager to discuss something else and call it CRT, but it's hard to pin them down on just what it is that has them so worked up.


Exactly.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> "Dude"?


Yeah I know, but he was a hero when he was a he and won gold. Now she is what she wants to be, if it makes you happy.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yeah I know, but he was a hero when he was a he and won gold. Now she is what she wants to be, if it makes you happy.


I'm ok with "she", but not with "they".

How do you think that she would do in the women's decathlon today?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm not sure what you mean by "swear by its ideology", but I have posted some rational discussions of CRT on this very thread.  Some people here seem to be eager to discuss something else and call it CRT, but it's hard to pin them down on just what it is that has them so worked up.


I haven’t read one analysis from one of the “trump style conservatives” in here describing what their issue is with CRT. Right there in the title is a word giving a big clue to the intentions of the originator, “Theory”.

Here’s some light reading on the crux of the subject: https://www.theskimm.com/news/systemic-racism-us-2f9M0RPl3VEuCAA5pSoZNr


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm ok with "she", but not with "they".
> 
> How do you think that she would do in the women's decathlon today?


Dead last, if she finished. Probably wouldn’t make it over the hurdles.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Educate me.


That is your standard response. 

You support something that you seem to have done very little research on. I don't refer reading a news article here and there that says CRT is good. Do some actual research to see what the actual proponents advocate. Go see then how that actually translates into what they are doing. 

Clearly you have not. And yet you seem to support CRT. 

One shouldn't support or oppose something they have not actually bothered to learn about.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I haven’t read one analysis from one of the “trump style conservatives” in here describing what their issue is with CRT. Right there in the title is a word giving a big clue to the intentions of the originator, “Theory”.
> 
> Here’s some light reading on the crux of the subject: https://www.theskimm.com/news/systemic-racism-us-2f9M0RPl3VEuCAA5pSoZNr


In the mid-'50s, my father went to a National Guard training camp for anti-aircraft artillery officers in Texas.  He was a school Principal then.  At that time, there were a lot of NG officers who were educators.  He got the opportunity to speak with teachers from the South, both black and white.  After he came home, we were watching some news program about school problems in the South.  He said, "They may be separate, but they're not equal."

He brought home this Renwal kit so we would know what he was doing --  






						75 mm Anti-Aircraft Gun -- SKYSWEEPER -- 134 parts with combat crew of 5: Renwal: Amazon.com: Books
					

75 mm Anti-Aircraft Gun -- SKYSWEEPER -- 134 parts with combat crew of 5 [Renwal] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. 75 mm Anti-Aircraft Gun -- SKYSWEEPER -- 134 parts with combat crew of 5



					www.amazon.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm ok with "she", but not with "they".
> 
> How do you think that she would do in the women's decathlon today?


If HE were young again and competing vs women he would completely dominate them. 

There is a reason why we created women's sports. Hint? It was so women could actually compete. 

Why we pretend and why some people want to go along and call a guy a she is beyond me. And people do it with a str8 face. 

It is farcical. 

If I were to suddenly declare I am black that is just as farcical. 

To then demand and get minority loans, receive affirmative action...etc etc because I claim that suddenly I am black would be ridiculous. And it is. People would laugh at me and say get a life. And yet on sex common sense goes out the door. 

To turn around and we are now pretending guys are women because they declare that? And they get to play in women's sports, etc? 

Lets live in the real world. 

If some guy wants to wear makeup and wear dresses have at it. I could care less. But when that same person demands I call him a she, or wants to play on the women's soccer team, or compete on some women's Olympic team that is where I draw a line.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is your standard response.
> 
> You support something that you seem to have done very little research on. I don't refer reading a news article here and there that says CRT is good. Do some actual research to see what the actual proponents advocate. Go see then how that actually translates into what they are doing.
> 
> ...


I "support" CRT in the same sense that I "support" the pencil-and-paper way of extracting square roots.

You should think long and hard about your last sentence.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> If HE were young again and competing vs women he would completely dominate them.
> 
> There is a reason why we created women's sports. Hint? It was so women could actually compete.
> 
> ...


I can't help but point out that you have declared yourself to be educated.


----------



## watfly (Jun 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Dead last, if she finished. Probably wouldn’t make it over the hurdles.


Particularly in those heels. (Oops, sorry)

Not to be the annoying fact checker, but women don't compete in the decathlon.  At the recent US trials a heptathlete competed while 18 months pregnant, that's bad ass.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> Not to be the annoying fact checker, but women don't compete in the decathlon.


Didn't know that. 

And on your second fact...typo. 18 weeks


----------



## crush (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is your standard response.
> 
> You support something that you seem to have done very little research on. I don't refer reading a news article here and there that says CRT is good. Do some actual research to see what the actual proponents advocate. Go see then how that actually translates into what they are doing.
> 
> ...


Marx Brothers are impossible to even have a discussion with.  Dad already bailed.


Desert Hound said:


> If HE were young again and competing vs women he would completely dominate them.
> 
> There is a reason why we created women's sports. Hint? It was so women could actually compete.
> 
> ...


Lot's to read over hear Hound.  My wife had a friend from HS come live with us for a week until I was able to help her out with a few things.  You see, she thought her hubby was having an affair with someone on the road.  He worked for a big corp company and had to travel up to Norcal every month for a week.  Well, she found some receipts from Victoria Secret and a few other places.  She went cray cray and rightfully so.  He denied another woman was in da mix.  She was not having it and would close her ears to his reasoning for buying some "extra" large slippers and panties.  I was able to help her see that he was actually a cross dresser and has been doing it ever since he was a boy.  He likes to dress up as a woman I kid you not.  I saw the sizes and met the guy a few times and knew right away he was buying stuff for himself.  I got her to call his mom and she fessed up bro.  Anyway, it got all resolved and now it's ok for him to play dress up.  They do it together and are super in love


----------



## watfly (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Didn't know that.
> 
> And on your second fact...typo. 18 weeks


Good catch!  Gotta love the irony.   Just goes to show I should leave the fact checking to Espola.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> Particularly in those heels. (Oops, sorry)
> 
> Not to be the annoying fact checker, but women don't compete in the decathlon.  At the recent US trials a heptathlete competed while 18 months pregnant, that's bad ass.


Triplets?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I "support" CRT in the same sense that I "support" the pencil-and-paper way of extracting square roots.
> 
> You should think long and hard about your last sentence.


Per usual you don't actually explain what you support. It is per usual a cop out on your part from actually articulating what specifically you find so endearing to CRT. 

An actual defense on your part would be to cite some of the various writers and their specific positions and let us know what you find worthy in those positions and thus should be taught in schools, companies, etc. 

And yet you avoid doing that like the plague.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> Good catch!  Gotta love the irony.   Just goes to show I should leave the fact checking to Espola.


Seems unfair.  If the ERA had passed, women would be competing in a proper decathlon just like the men, not just 7/10 like the men.  

I remember when women were not allowed to run marathons in the Olympics or other big Marathon events like Boston -- it was feared it might ruin their child-bearing parts.  Now the women's marathon world record is about where the men's marathon world record was in 1964, and it is less than 15 minutes behind the current men's WR.


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Per usual you don't actually explain what you support. It is per usual a cop out on your part from actually articulating what specifically you find so endearing to CRT.
> 
> An actual defense on your part would be to cite some of the various writers and their specific positions and let us know what you find worthy in those positions and thus should be taught in schools, companies, etc.
> 
> And yet you avoid doing that like the plague.


I already posted what I know about it several times.  You are free to have your own opinion, but not your own facts.


----------



## watfly (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Seems unfair.  If the ERA had passed, women would be competing in a proper decathlon just like the men, not just 7/10 like the men.
> 
> I remember when women were not allowed to run marathons in the Olympics or other big Marathon events like Boston -- it was feared it might ruin their child-bearing parts.  Now the women's marathon world record is about where the men's marathon world record was in 1964, and it is less than 15 minutes behind the current men's WR.


If women want to expand to the decathlon, more power to them.


----------



## crush (Jun 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I already posted what I know about it several times.  You are free to have your own opinion, but not your own facts.


Hey Marko, do you remember when and why you first ignored me?


----------



## espola (Jun 28, 2021)

watfly said:


> If women want to expand to the decathlon, more power to them.


It's not just expanding, most of the events are different - different distances run and the weights of the shot and javelin.  The only events that are the "same" are high jump and long jump (anyone else old enough to remember the broad jump?).


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is your standard response.
> 
> You support something that you seem to have done very little research on. I don't refer reading a news article here and there that says CRT is good. Do some actual research to see what the actual proponents advocate. Go see then how that actually translates into what they are doing.
> 
> ...


You have demonstrated no grasp of the theory nor it’s tenets. Actually quite the opposite. I’m quite sure E isn’t looking to you for information on CRT, more he would like to understand what your understanding of it is. Why does it concern you so much?


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 28, 2021)

Mask story. Here in San Diego. You locals prob know better but I estimate maybe only 1/4 people outside still wearing masks. Went to dinner in old town. 1/3 of the restaurants still shuttered including my old favorite the cosmopolitan.  

we went to the Reyes which is a total tourist trap but the drinks are decent and the tortillas home made. They are still at reduced capacity (not sure if it’s the labor or city restrictions but seating is all outdoors). They sat a young couple in their 20s right next to us (there’s a small fence between the tables but barely 6 feet apart with the tables parallel to each other). Both of them were wearing masks even though it’s outdoors.  They freaked out being sat so close to us and left (after waiting at least an hour for the table) when they were told it would be another 20 for another 2 top. Totally about the fear.


----------



## watfly (Jun 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They sat a young couple in their 20s right next to us (there’s a small fence between the tables but barely 6 feet apart with the tables parallel to each other). Both of them were wearing masks even though it’s outdoors.  They freaked out being sat so close to us and left (after waiting at least an hour for the table) when they were told it would be another 20 for another 2 top. Totally about the fear.


I'd wager they are visiting from the Bay Area.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jun 29, 2021)

watfly said:


> I'd wager they are visiting from the Bay Area.


Hahaha. How on earth did they manage to make it down there? You know they didn’t fly. Or, maybe they did since masks are as good as the vaccine <cue espola>.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 29, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Hahaha. How on earth did they manage to make it down there? You know they didn’t fly. Or, maybe they did since masks are as good as the vaccine <cue espola>.


It baffles me how ignorance became the new cool thing to display. Another thing to thank the “Sarah Palin style conservatives” for.


----------



## crush (Jun 29, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 29, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> It baffles me how ignorance became the new cool thing to display.


I agree. Those 20yr olds are in about the lowest risk category one can be in. They have no risk. And yet due to their ignorance they are scared and wear a mask. 

If only they understood data.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 29, 2021)

So we were in New Mexico last week for an ID camp.

Driving into Alb just outside the city there is a casino. Big lights say only open to NM residents. I thought that strange.

Later we had issues with our hotel reservation. Finally found a place last minute. They would only accept people from outside of NM. I found that strange.

And finally I have seen it before but I always find it strange. I was up early getting coffee before dropping the DD off at UNM. Some lady (mid 30s?) was out running with her dog. Had her mask on. Streets had barely any traffic and not a soul to be seen walking. It was 6am or so.

One thing that wasn't strange? This place http://www.frontierrestaurant.com/

Killer food. Inexpensive. Excellent green chile. If you like Mexican food and in particular NM style Mexican food, it is hard to beat this place.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jun 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I agree. Those 20yr olds are in about the lowest risk category one can be in. They have no risk. And yet due to their ignorance they are scared and wear a mask.
> 
> If only they understood data.


“no risk”? There’s a touch of that proud ignorance right there. 20 year olds already have a hard time thinking about anyone but themselves, kinda like you.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 29, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “no risk”? There’s a touch of that proud ignorance right there. 20 year olds already have a hard time thinking about anyone but themselves, kinda like you.


You do the math. 
967 people have died from covid ages 15-24 out of 600k.

Or 0.16% of all deaths.

They have no risk from covid.


----------



## watfly (Jun 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Mask story. Here in San Diego. You locals prob know better but I estimate maybe only 1/4 people outside still wearing masks. Went to dinner in old town. 1/3 of the restaurants still shuttered including my old favorite the cosmopolitan.


I'd estimate 10% or less in the areas I frequent (I suspect that if I went to North Park mask wearing would be higher).  In the last week I haven't seen a business that is still requiring masks.  I've stopped carrying.  I do still see people driving solo wearing a mask?   All the beach businesses are slammed and I haven't noticed any capacity restrictions on restaurants.   It seems for the most part that its business as usual, except unfortunately for those businesses that didn't make it.


----------



## crush (Jun 29, 2021)

I have a mask story.   When I get back, I'll share too


----------



## crush (Jun 29, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jun 29, 2021)




----------



## watfly (Jun 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You do the math.
> 967 people have died from covid ages 15-24 out of 600k.
> 
> Or 0.16% of all deaths.
> ...


More math. 2,380 deaths in 18-29 age group.  US population in this age group >$45 million.  That's 0.005% over the course of the pandemic.  Now with vaccines the risk is substantially lower, effectively zero.   I suspect the risk of dying from gun violence, car accident or getting food poisoning at the restaurant are higher.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 29, 2021)

watfly said:


> More math. 2,380 deaths in 18-29 age group.  US population in this age group >$45 million.  That's 0.005% over the course of the pandemic.  Now with vaccines the risk is substantially lower, effectively zero.   I suspect the risk of dying from gun violence, car accident or getting food poisoning at the restaurant are higher.


Exactly.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 29, 2021)

Unfortunately this thing looks like it's not yet quite over and we still have some time to go.  It means a few things:

-The UK, because of it's increasing numbers, is probably going to be the first out of it.
-Israel reinstated its mask mandate for the vaccinated.  We have a huge fight coming here in the United States and it's not just over masks.  The issues include mandatory vaccinations, vaccination of children in the fall, reinstalling mask mandates (La County has made already a "recommendation" for use indoors) and shutting down the restaurants/bars and maybe even schools again.  What's stupid is the states that least need the restrictions will likely be the most heavy handed, and even with the UK's rising numbers deaths and hospitalizations have been largely decoupled from cases.  But make no mistake, in some form or other, with the most severe measures directed at the children, the are going to try and restrict things in California again.  It's not over yet.
-India seeded an outbreak in the UK and the UK has in turn seeded an outbreak in parts of Europe.  Russia is also having an outbreak, so having the Euro is a full stadium in St. Petersburg is going to cause some issues, particularly since this variant is more contagious outdoors.
-The third world is in for an utterly devastating wave and whatever has been holding things back in Asia and Africa is no longer holding things back.  With the low rates of vaccination, in the third world we could really see horrible things to come as already poor hospital systems get overwhelmed.
-the major western vaccines seem to do a really good job at preventing hospitalizations and deaths still.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jun 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> -the major western vaccines seem to do a really good job at preventing hospitalizations and deaths still.


This is key.

The other key is, it seems that while the D variant spreads easier, it is a weaker variant health wise.


- Looking at India. On paper the variant should have ripped through the country. And yet we see the rise and the fall in infections/deaths. The country as a whole still has a extremely low deaths per million. Also as it relates to the virus a very low vaccinated rate. One would think that would be a recipe for disaster. It appears not to be the case. 

- The UK has seen a rise in cases since the beginning of June. So we are about a month in. In the next week or 2 if this variant is an issue it will present itself as such in the stats. So we will know rather soon. 

- I suspect that we will be fine due to the following factors. A large percentage of our population has been exposed to the virus. We also have a large percentage of people vaccinated. 

- You are right that governments will try to reimpose restrictions. They will likely overreact again. 

Either way...with the UK a month into rising infections we will know extremely soon if the variant is an issue or not.


----------



## crush (Jun 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is key.
> 
> The other key is, it seems that while the D variant spreads easier, it is a weaker variant health wise.
> 
> ...


Great work Hound.  I will now call you, "Dr Q" medicine man    The Marx Brothers are full of hate dude and have their backs against the wall of hate.  No where to run and no where to hide.  They too will come around later.  They need more humble pie eat


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 29, 2021)

Scandal of the suppressed case for ivermectin - The Conservative Woman
					

Scandal of the suppressed case for ivermectin




					www.conservativewoman.co.uk


----------



## what-happened (Jun 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Unfortunately this thing looks like it's not yet quite over and we still have some time to go.  It means a few things:
> 
> -The UK, because of it's increasing numbers, is probably going to be the first out of it.
> -Israel reinstated its mask mandate for the vaccinated.  We have a huge fight coming here in the United States and it's not just over masks.  The issues include mandatory vaccinations, vaccination of children in the fall, reinstalling mask mandates (La County has made already a "recommendation" for use indoors) and shutting down the restaurants/bars and maybe even schools again.  What's stupid is the states that least need the restrictions will likely be the most heavy handed, and even with the UK's rising numbers deaths and hospitalizations have been largely decoupled from cases.  But make no mistake, in some form or other, with the most severe measures directed at the children, the are going to try and restrict things in California again.  It's not over yet.
> ...


Mabye they ran out of Ivermectin or Big Pharma shut down Ivermectin production??


----------



## whatithink (Jun 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is key.
> 
> The other key is, it seems that while the D variant spreads easier, it is a weaker variant health wise.
> 
> ...


The death numbers in India are being questioned, reinforced by one state that reviewed their deaths and more or less doubled their numbers. India's reported Covid deaths are at just under 400K. Estimates of "true" numbers run from 600K to 2M+. Relatively speaking, their deaths per million will still tend to be low, but then again they have about 1.4B people ...

The UK delta variant numbers recently reported 92K cases with a death rate of 0.13%. That's the good news. Less good was that of the 117 deaths, 50 had been fully vaccinated. Those 50 were over the age of 50, and so in a higher risk category. Of the 8 under 50 who died, 2 had been partially vaccinated and 6 had not.

So the overreaction may be caused by the lack of a bullet proof vaccine, and people not getting vaccinated so we all get the suffer.

Personally, my view is, get vaccinated and let's get on with life. If you refuse to get vaccinated (inc your qualified kids) and there are restrictions due to low vaccination numbers, then STFU - you're part of the cause (of the restrictions), not the solution.


----------



## crush (Jun 29, 2021)

whatithink said:


> *Personally, my view is, get vaccinated and let's get on with life. If you refuse to get vaccinated (inc your qualified kids) and there are restrictions due to low vaccination numbers, then STFU - you're part of the cause (of the restrictions), not the solution.*


Ok tough guy.....lol!!! You have the same personal view as my best friend Colin.  He was a no for jab, but because he wants to live & retire in Bali, he said he will now get the jab so he can get back to life.  He's worn out and has had enough dude. Your attitude is why I have to move away and get away from scared folks.  I see now it's going to be all my fault again too, just like when t won the election from HRC.  You guys all act the same when you lose. I lost 45 Lbs already, no joke and will NEVER get the shot.  I eat veggies and fruit and feel amazing.  However, "what I think" thinks he knows it all. Let's have a wait and see pal before you condemn me and my wife and blame us for all the restrictions you now have.  I see you guys working the angle.  Look man, your little group cheated like shit and you know it.  I'm appalled at some of you.


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 29, 2021)

Opinion | CDC's All-or-Nothing Approach to Teen COVID Vaccination Is All Wrong
					

The agency should revisit its latest guidance to maximize benefits and minimize risks




					www.medpagetoday.com


----------



## crush (Jun 30, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 30, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 11061


Disagree.  The brain has been washed for much longer than a year.  Just look at all the brains that cite statistics from the last year and ignore at least the last 50 years of virus stats and history.  They fancy themselves informed and articulate despite their cherry picking of the data and the facts.


----------



## crush (Jun 30, 2021)

My pal has a pal that lives in Long Beach.  I've lived in Socal for 54 years and never ever have I seen the military doing "training exercise" in Socal cities."  The port of LB is a very important area.  Game on folks!!!!









						Night Stalker MH-6 Drops Off Soldiers in Long Beach
					

Army training drills conducted on Wednesday in the Long Beach, CA area as loud explosions rang out and low-flying helicopters landed throughout the night!




					www.military.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I haven’t read one analysis from one of the “trump style conservatives” in here describing what their issue is with CRT. Right there in the title is a word giving a big clue to the intentions of the originator, “Theory”.
> 
> Here’s some light reading on the crux of the subject: https://www.theskimm.com/news/systemic-racism-us-2f9M0RPl3VEuCAA5pSoZNr


What are you talking about?  It's all light reading.  That's the problem.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I haven’t read one analysis from one of the “trump style conservatives” in here describing what their issue is with CRT. Right there in the title is a word giving a big clue to the intentions of the originator, “Theory”.
> 
> Here’s some light reading on the crux of the subject: https://www.theskimm.com/news/systemic-racism-us-2f9M0RPl3VEuCAA5pSoZNr


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 30, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 30, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 30, 2021)

"Hopelessness is one of the big products of the Race Industry"-- T. Sowell


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 30, 2021)

8-Year-Olds in Despair: The Mental Health Crisis Is Getting Younger (Published 2021)
					

The number of children who need urgent mental health care has been on the rise for years, and spiked during the pandemic.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## crush (Jun 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 8-Year-Olds in Despair: The Mental Health Crisis Is Getting Younger (Published 2021)
> 
> 
> The number of children who need urgent mental health care has been on the rise for years, and spiked during the pandemic.
> ...


If they can't get you before your born, they will sure try and make life shit for those with less.  Military is doing "training exercises" as I speak so this shall pass soon.  Man or man, the way these monsters treat kids is insane.  Hold the line Grace, you're watching a movie


----------



## Grace T. (Jun 30, 2021)

Why the Vaccinated Account for 50% of COVID Infections In Israel
					

The headline seems alarming, but the mathematics of vaccine efficacy says that this is to be expected




					polimath.substack.com


----------



## espola (Jun 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Why the Vaccinated Account for 50% of COVID Infections In Israel
> 
> 
> The headline seems alarming, but the mathematics of vaccine efficacy says that this is to be expected
> ...


Looks  like compelling reasoning for everyone to be vaccinated.


----------



## crush (Jun 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Why the Vaccinated Account for 50% of COVID Infections In Israel
> 
> 
> The headline seems alarming, but the mathematics of vaccine efficacy says that this is to be expected
> ...


CDC lady boss just said that if you got jabbed, your "safe" based on the what the USA is doing.  Only 12% of the world is vaccine.  USA & our British brethren are leading the pack with the must.  Grace, the hate mail I'm getting is insane.  I mean real hate and they want me out.   That is why July 3rd is my last day.  I will celebrate July 4th with style and I will NEVER come back to the forum.  You can take that statement to da bank, hey now!!!!  I had a three year contract and I have no desire to renew for another 12 months.  I had a good talk with an old GOAT FC dad the other day.  Dude was checking on my well being.  Well, he saw with his eyes the transformation and then I should him the truth.  He was blown away and give me the biggest hug ever. Saturday is my last day Grace and i mean that this time.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 30, 2021)

Last week I had lunch in Massachusetts with Martin Kulldorff, the Harvard Medical School professor who helped draft the Great Barrington Declaration, which condemned lockdowns as a public-health disaster.

I can't tell you how great it was.

That part didn't surprise me. What did surprise me: how few masks I saw even in Massachusetts.

I had assumed that that charade would persist for quite a while in the blue states. And yet there were far fewer masks than I expected.

With so much of normal life resuming so quickly, it's tempting to think that the issue is behind us and we can safely move on to other things.

And of course I have been discussing plenty of other things on the Tom Woods Show, and at times in these emails (which are worth reading even when not about COVID, my dear subscriber).

But a few words of caution:

(1) Many places outside the U.S. are still enduring inhumane lockdowns and those people matter, too.

(2) We cannot just let this rest. What these people did to us is unforgivable, and since we have something approaching control groups, we can know it was all essentially useless. We cannot allow the conventional wisdom to settle at: the mitigation measures saved countless lives, and the deaths we experienced were the fault of people's "bad behavior." That myth needs to be "exploded," to use a favorite word of Ludwig von Mises.

(3) The fanatics are emphasizing the "Delta variant," even though it isn't any more deadly. The UK has already exploited it as an excuse to break its promise regarding the end of restrictions. We have to carry on the fight to keep anything similar from happening in the U.S.

When the conventional wisdom is a pack of lies, it can influence future policy for decades to come.

The caricature that passes for knowledge of nineteenth-century economic history influences antitrust policy to this day. The false belief that "capitalism" caused the Great Depression and the financial crisis of 2008, and the equally false belief that the New Deal deserves credit for lifting the U.S. out of the Depression, continue to influence economic policy.

If we declare victory and walk away, lockdown will become yet another historical episode everyone misunderstood, and that in turn brought about future calamities.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jun 30, 2021)

espola said:


> Looks  like compelling reasoning for everyone to be vaccinated.


Meep! Meep!


----------



## dad4 (Jun 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Why the Vaccinated Account for 50% of COVID Infections In Israel
> 
> 
> The headline seems alarming, but the mathematics of vaccine efficacy says that this is to be expected
> ...


Decent article on base rate errors.

It treats overall exposure rate as exogenous, so take the charts with a grain of salt.  The article is explicitly ignoring the possiblity that higher vaccine rates mean there is less virus floating around.


----------



## watfly (Jun 30, 2021)

No masks for kids.









						Experimental Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Content in Inhaled Air With or Without Face Masks in Healthy Children
					

This randomized clinical trial measured inhaled and exhaled carbon dioxide in children with and without face masks.




					jamanetwork.com
				




_Most of the complaints reported by children can be understood as consequences of elevated carbon dioxide levels in inhaled air. This is because of the dead-space volume of the masks, which collects exhaled carbon dioxide quickly after a short time. This carbon dioxide mixes with fresh air and elevates the carbon dioxide content of inhaled air under the mask, and this was more pronounced in this study for younger children.

This leads in turn to impairments attributable to hypercapnia. A recent review6 concluded that there was ample evidence for adverse effects of wearing such masks. We suggest that decision-makers weigh the hard evidence produced by these experimental measurements accordingly, which suggest that *children should not be forced to wear face masks.*
_


----------



## crush (Jul 1, 2021)




----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> No masks for kids.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Someone needs to have this discussion with the UTLA who is mandating masks for ALL students both INDOORS and OUTDOORS while on campus.  Funny, as a union representing educators they aren’t really following the science are they?  So what exactly are they following?????

Shouldn’t they MANDATE that ALL teachers and staff are VACCINATED then there wouldn’t be a need for the children to wear masks. 

Hope ALL classrooms have A/C cause it’s gonna be a warm Fall and masks don’t really help keep you cool.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Someone needs to have this discussion with the UTLA who is mandating masks for ALL students both INDOORS and OUTDOORS while on campus.  Funny, as a union representing educators they aren’t really following the science are they?  So what exactly are they following?????
> 
> Shouldn’t they MANDATE that ALL teachers and staff are VACCINATED then there wouldn’t be a need for the children to wear masks.
> 
> Hope ALL classrooms have A/C cause it’s gonna be a warm Fall and masks don’t really help keep you cool.


The nea at its annual meeting has listed as an action item a push for mandatory vaccination (and on top of that testing) of staff, teachers and students, medical exemptions only.

a. The under 12 at a minimum won’t have sufficient time before school starts to be fully vaccinated even if approval comes for Pfizer late summer
b. The eu label isn’t going anywhere for a beat at least
c. With the myocarditis risk in males (from the military survey) still rare but running higher than initially thought, don’t know how they’ll overcome that issue

in any case the anticipated fight is here now especially since in many blue areas kids will still need to wear masks even if fully vaxxed.


----------



## crush (Jul 1, 2021)

HOT News is coming out of AZ!!  Remember friends, HOT stands for: *H*onest,* O*pen and *T*ransparent.  Also for those stuck on the Left side only mindset and a I know it all attitude, recounting votes and doing an audit are not the same.  For example, let's say Crush bought 17 apples and had them delivered by Mr. Grubby.  I ask my dd to recount the apples to make sure the dude delivered 17 apples.  After my dd recounts them and says, "Hey pops, 17 apples are hear"  I say, "thanks, have fun at the beach."  Are we over?  Hell no, I now have my wife audit my apples.  After careful inspection of my 17 apples, my wife finds 2 plastic apples, 1 glass apple and then 2 oranges that were painted to look like Apples.  After my audit, I only got 12 apples.  I called my apple supplier to let him know about the heist and he is telling me to call the delivery guy or some like to call "the middleman."


----------



## dad4 (Jul 1, 2021)

The concern with schools is more about kid to kid than kid to teacher transmission.

If you refuse to think about long transmission chains and overall viral prevalence in the community, then it is not going to make sense to you.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The concern with schools is more about kid to kid than kid to teacher transmission.
> 
> If you refuse to think about long transmission chains and overall viral prevalence in the community, then it is not going to make sense to you.


Then maybe you can help me understand why UTLA is mandating anything to protect people outside of those they represent?


----------



## dad4 (Jul 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Then maybe you can help me understand why UTLA is mandating anything to protect people outside of those they represent?


Probably has more to do with the high prevalence of obesity among the senior teaching staff who control the union.


----------



## watfly (Jul 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Someone needs to have this discussion with the UTLA who is mandating masks for ALL students both INDOORS and OUTDOORS while on campus.  Funny, as a union representing educators they aren’t really following the science are they?  So what exactly are they following?????
> 
> Shouldn’t they MANDATE that ALL teachers and staff are VACCINATED then there wouldn’t be a need for the children to wear masks.
> 
> Hope ALL classrooms have A/C cause it’s gonna be a warm Fall and masks don’t really help keep you cool.


LA rule makers have an addiction to masks, and the UTLA an addiction to power.  Masks are form over substance.  Their mentality is masks are better than vaccines, because you can see a mask whereas you can't see a vaccine.  So they push masks so it "looks" like they're doing something to fight Covid.  Make the teachers get a vaccine and lets move on like most of the rest of the country and population.

It is cruel to make kids wear masks all school day.  Unfortunately, some adults are so overcome by their own fear that they don't understand that.  Again the height of selfishness.   The community spread angle is a red herring pushed by fear mongering adults.  Spread is actually less in schools than in the general public.  Combine this with the fact that current overall transmission rates are so low that there is no compelling reason for kids to wear masks in school.









						Scientists highlight low risk of COVID-19 spread in schools
					






					www.cidrap.umn.edu
				




"Yeah but", what about the Delta variant.  Hear is how I feel about the Delta variant.








						New Variant Found To Be Twice As Virulent And Blah Blah Blah Whatever Who Cares At This Point
					

U.S.—Scientists now warn that the new COVID-19 variant is, like, more contagious and also, like... other stuff about it. Some of them have brought up masks again. I’m sure you’re rapt with attention about all this.“It’s really concerning,” said some scientist named... I dunno. Who cares what his...




					babylonbee.com
				




Remember the goal was never to eliminate Covid, the goal was always to not overwhelm our health care system.   Despite the "sky is falling" predictions from a few (typically the same ones that were wrong in the past), with the level of vaccinations we're in no risk of overwhelming our hospitals with Covid patients.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Probably has more to do with the high prevalence of obesity among the senior teaching staff who control the union.


So tou do you see where I’m coming from, right?


----------



## dad4 (Jul 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> LA rule makers have an addiction to masks, and the UTLA an addiction to power.  Masks are form over substance.  Their mentality is masks are better than vaccines, because you can see a mask whereas you can't see a vaccine.  So they push masks so it "looks" like they're doing something to fight Covid.  Make the teachers get a vaccine and lets move on like most of the rest of the country and population.
> 
> It is cruel to make kids wear masks all school day.  Unfortunately, some adults are so overcome by their own fear that they don't understand that.  Again the height of selfishness.   The community spread angle is a red herring pushed by fear mongering adults.  Spread is actually less in schools than in the general public.  Combine this with the fact that current overall transmission rates are so low that there is no compelling reason for kids to wear masks in school.
> 
> ...


We impose rules on kids because we can, not because it makes the most sense.

A vaccine mandate for 40+ would do far more than a vaccine mandate for 12-18.  And, if we old folks would all get our shots, there would be less reason to talk about covid in schools.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> LA rule makers have an addiction to masks, and the UTLA an addiction to power.  Masks are form over substance.  Their mentality is masks are better than vaccines, because you can see a mask whereas you can't see a vaccine.  So they push masks so it "looks" like they're doing something to fight Covid.  Make the teachers get a vaccine and lets move on like most of the rest of the country and population.
> 
> It is cruel to make kids wear masks all school day.  Unfortunately, some adults are so overcome by their own fear that they don't understand that.  Again the height of selfishness.   The community spread angle is a red herring pushed by fear mongering adults.  Spread is actually less in schools than in the general public.  Combine this with the fact that current overall transmission rates are so low that there is no compelling reason for kids to wear masks in school.
> 
> ...


I seem to recall the “More contagious, Deadlier variant” line being used a few times over the last 18 months.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We impose rules on kids because we can, not because it makes the most sense.
> 
> A vaccine mandate for 40+ would do far more than a vaccine mandate for 12-18.  And, if we old folks would all get our shots, there would be less reason to talk about covid in schools.


That’s called abuse of power.


----------



## espola (Jul 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> LA rule makers have an addiction to masks, and the UTLA an addiction to power.  Masks are form over substance.  Their mentality is masks are better than vaccines, because you can see a mask whereas you can't see a vaccine.  So they push masks so it "looks" like they're doing something to fight Covid.  Make the teachers get a vaccine and lets move on like most of the rest of the country and population.
> 
> It is cruel to make kids wear masks all school day.  Unfortunately, some adults are so overcome by their own fear that they don't understand that.  Again the height of selfishness.   The community spread angle is a red herring pushed by fear mongering adults.  Spread is actually less in schools than in the general public.  Combine this with the fact that current overall transmission rates are so low that there is no compelling reason for kids to wear masks in school.
> 
> ...


I thought the goal was to limit as much as possible deaths due to covid.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> That’s called abuse of power.


People with/in power, "Abuse Power" shocker.


----------



## watfly (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We impose rules on kids because we can, not because it makes the most sense.
> 
> A vaccine mandate for 40+ would do far more than a vaccine mandate for 12-18.  And, if we old folks would all get our shots, there would be less reason to talk about covid in schools.


It used to be a community core value to put children first.  Now it seems children need their own lobby because adult lobbies are putting their own interests first over our children.  Not how and when this happened, but its troubling.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> That’s called abuse of power.


Not too different from cities which reserve 95 acres for golf, and 45 acres for all of youth sports put together.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Decent article on base rate errors.
> 
> It treats overall exposure rate as exogenous, so take the charts with a grain of salt.  The article is explicitly ignoring the possiblity that higher vaccine rates mean there is less virus floating around.


Just like you've been explicitly ignoring the virus history and statistics of the last 50 years plus AND,  the PCR test the only test for genetic sequencing and not the actual presence of the virus.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The concern with schools is more about kid to kid than kid to teacher transmission.
> 
> If you refuse to think about long transmission chains and overall viral prevalence in the community, then it is not going to make sense to you.


Makes even less sense when you explicitly ignore virus transmission over the past 50 years.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Probably has more to do with the high prevalence of obesity among the senior teaching staff who control the union.


Obesity you say?


----------



## espola (Jul 1, 2021)

espola said:


> I thought the goal was to limit as much as possible deaths due to covid.


The character known as "baldref" thinks that's funny.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We impose rules on kids because we can, not because it makes the most sense.
> 
> A vaccine mandate for 40+ would do far more than a vaccine mandate for 12-18.  And, if we old folks would all get our shots, there would be less reason to talk about covid in schools.


If you stopped explicitly ignoring the past 50 years of virus history you might retain some credibility here.  At this point you're just a cherry picker.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 1, 2021)

espola said:


> I thought the goal was to limit as much as possible deaths due to covid.


Nearly 100% survival rate pre-vaccine.  I think baldref thinks you're funny.  Meep, meep.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not too different from cities which reserve 95 acres for golf, and 45 acres for all of youth sports put together.


What does that have to do with abuse of power?  Or the topic of the conversation period?  You gonna argue the homeless situation in CA is do in large part to a lack of housing?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 1, 2021)

The Power of Fallacies 

_Never underestimate the difficulty of changing false beliefs by facts_. --Henry Rosovsky


 Fallacies are not simply crazy ideas. They are usually both plausible and logical— but with something missing. Their plausibility gains them political support. *Only after that political support is strong enough to cause fallacious ideas to become government policies and programs are the missing or ignored factors likely to lead to "unintended consequences," a phrase often heard in the wake of economic or social policy disasters.* *Another phrase often heard in the wake of these disasters is, "It seemed like a good idea at the time."* That is why it pays to look deeper into things that look good on the surface at the moment. Sometimes what is missing in a fallacy is simply a definition. Undefined words have a special power in politics, particularly when they invoke some principle that engages people's emotions. "Fair" is one of those undefined words which have attracted political support for policies ranging from Fair Trade laws to the Fair Labor Standards Act. While the fact that the word is undefined is an intellectual handicap, it is a huge political advantage. People with very different views on substantive issues can be unified and mobilized behind a word that papers over their differing, and sometimes even mutually contradictory, ideas. Who, after all, is in favor of unfairness? Similarly with "social justice," "equality," and other undefined terms that can mean wholly different things to different individuals and groups— all of  Economic Facts and Fallacies whom can be mobilized in support of policies that use such appealing words. *Fallacies abound in economic policies affecting everything from housing to international trade. Where the unintended consequences of these policies take years to unfold, the effects may not be traced back to their causes by many people. Even when the bad consequences follow closely after a given policy, many people may not connect the dots, and advocates of policies that backfire often attribute these bad consequences to something else. Sometimes they claim that the bad situation would have been even worse if it had not been for the wonderful policies they advocated.*

Thomas Sowell


----------



## dad4 (Jul 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> What does that have to do with abuse of power?  Or the topic of the conversation period?  You gonna argue the homeless situation in CA is do in large part to a lack of housing?


Both are examples of old people in government looking out for the interests of old people, and ignoring the interests of youth.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Both are examples of old people in government looking out for the interests of old people, and ignoring the interests of youth.


I see….I misread/misunderstood your statement so thank you for clarifying.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 1, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We impose rules on kids because we can, not because it makes the most sense.
> 
> A vaccine mandate for 40+ would do far more than a vaccine mandate for 12-18.  And, if we old folks would all get our shots, there would be less reason to talk about covid in schools.


THE CHESS-PIECES FALLACY 

Back in the eighteenth century, Adam Smith wrote of the doctrinaire theorist who is "wise in his own conceit" and who "seems to imagine that he can arrange the different members of a great society with as much ease as the hand arranges the different pieces upon a chess-board." 3 Such theorists are at least as common today and have at least as much influence in shaping laws and policies. Unlike chess pieces, human beings have their own individual preferences, values, plans and wills, all of which can conflict with and even thwart the goals of social experiments. Moreover, whatever the merits of particular social experiments, experimentation as such can have huge economic and social costs. Although some social experimenters may believe that, if one program or policy does not work, they can simply try another and another after that, until they find one that does work, the uncertainties generated by incessant experimentation can cause people to change their behavior in ways that adversely affect the economy.  

Some economists, including John Maynard Keynes, 4 saw the uncertainties about the future generated by the experimental policies of the New Deal administration in the 1930s as tending to discourage investment that was much needed to get out of the Great Depression. *Boris Yeltsin, the first non-Communist leader of Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, likewise spoke of "our country— so rich, so talented and so exhausted by incessant experiments."* *Because people are not inanimate objects like chess pieces, the very attempt to use them as part of some grand design can turn out to be not merely unsuccessful but counterproductive— and the notion that "if at first you don't succeed, try, try again" can be a formula for disaster when consumers become reluctant to spend and investors become reluctant to invest when they have no reliable framework of expectations, since they have no way of knowing what will happen next in an atmosphere of unending experimentation.*


----------



## crush (Jul 1, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jul 2, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jul 2, 2021)




----------



## crush (Jul 2, 2021)

Picture is worth a thousand truths....lol!!!  Drip drip drip........... Lap dances and the laptop from hell is slowly leaking.  Audit ((not a recount)) in AZ and so many more places.  It's interesting to see how many former military or current military people are placed in very important places.  The Gov of Florida was or is a Navy Seal?  Wendy? Sydney?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 2, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not too different from cities which reserve 95 acres for golf, and 45 acres for all of youth sports put together.


Golf courses make more money


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 2, 2021)

Failed to find that countries/states that implemented SIP policies earlier or longer had lower excess death, and no observable difference in excess deaths after implementations of SIP.  May be due to people freaking out and reducing their mobility on their own.  SIPs may only help to the extent they fuel the freak out.



			https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28930/w28930.pdf?utm_campaign=PANTHEON_STRIPPED&amp%3Butm_medium=PANTHEON_STRIPPED&amp%3Butm_source=PANTHEON_STRIPPED


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 2, 2021)

As expected, cases seem decoupled from hospitalizations & deaths.  The coming freak out over another wave of the Delta variant and masking/business restrictions/school restrictions is going to be a nasty clash.









						The Delta variant is not driving a surge in hospitalization rates in England, health data shows. (Published 2021)
					

Although the number of coronavirus infections has risen sharply in recent weeks, hospitalization rates remain low.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## crush (Jul 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As expected, cases seem decoupled from hospitalizations & deaths.  The coming freak out over another wave of the Delta variant and masking/business restrictions/school restrictions is going to be a nasty clash.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I dont think the "crockpots" can handle much more pressure Grace, moo!!


----------



## crush (Jul 2, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As expected, cases seem decoupled from hospitalizations & deaths.  The coming freak out over another wave of the Delta variant and masking/business restrictions/school restrictions is going to be a nasty clash.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That is related to 2 main drivers. 

- Most important is the fact that they are finding out that the current vaccine works very well vs this variant. 
- And while it spreads easier, it seems to be less deadly.


----------



## espola (Jul 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Golf courses make more money


I know Torrey Pines is always sold out.  Do you think they turn a profit?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 2, 2021)

espola said:


> I know Torrey Pines is always sold out.  Do you think they turn a profit?


They do. It is an iconic track. They get very good money from people not living in the SD area.


----------



## espola (Jul 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> They do. It is an iconic track. They get very good money from people not living in the SD area.


A guy I worked with and some of his golfing buddies formed a small "golf club".  Since they were a SD local group, Torrey Pines was obligated to schedule their "club tournament" a couple of times a year.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 2, 2021)

espola said:


> I know Torrey Pines is always sold out.  Do you think they turn a profit?


ALL golf courses are full these days. Yes Torrey does quite well for the city of San Diego. With Torrey charging non-residents $250.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 2, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 11076


Wouldn't you say masculinity is toxic when biological men want to compete in sport as a woman?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 2, 2021)

espola said:


> A guy I worked with and some of his golfing buddies formed a small "golf club".  Since they were a SD local group, Torrey Pines was obligated to schedule their "club tournament" a couple of times a year.


I’ve been playing there since the early 80’s, a dozen or so times a year. Nice place to hang. Surfed Blacks since the 70’s so I kinda like that area.


----------



## crush (Jul 2, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Wouldn't you say masculinity is toxic when biological men want to compete in sport as a woman?


I have no idea Bruddah. My wife is as feminine as they come and I'm as masculine as they come.  I'm working on being more feminine and she is working on being more masculine to find that sweet spot.  BTW, I'm sitting at Doheny Beach with my awesome wife.  This is where we said, "I will love you forever babe."  No one is wearing a mask.  I went to restaurant for food and was honest and up front with owner.  I said, "I can't get the Jab for personal reasons, do you need me to.wear mask?"  He said no and not to worry.


----------



## crush (Jul 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I’ve been playing there since the early 80’s, a dozen or so times a year. Nice place to hang. *Surfed Blacks since the 70’s* so I kinda like that area.


Pictures please.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is related to 2 main drivers.
> 
> - Most important is the fact that they are finding out that the current vaccine works very well vs this variant.
> - And while it spreads easier, it seems to be less deadly.


for the vaccinated (1 or 2) it seems to be just a bad cold.  Fever isn't even one of the top 5 symptoms and cough is 5.


----------



## espola (Jul 2, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I’ve been playing there since the early 80’s, a dozen or so times a year. Nice place to hang. Surfed Blacks since the 70’s so I kinda like that area.


I have picked up a few stray golf balls in the gliderport parking lot.


----------



## crush (Jul 2, 2021)

espola said:


> I have picked up a few stray golf balls in the gliderport parking lot.


I have a contest I want to propose to you and Husker.  Team Golf match at Torrey Pines.  Crush/Hound vs Espola/Husker?  After the match we will take Hound down to Blacks for some surf lessons and sight seeing.  We need to put all of our differences aside and come together for the betterment of humanity and the kids.  Tomorrow is my last day, I promise.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As expected, cases seem decoupled from hospitalizations & deaths.  The coming freak out over another wave of the Delta variant and masking/business restrictions/school restrictions is going to be a nasty clash.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The "decoupling" you mention is nothing more than the fact that vaccines are better at reducing hospitalizations than reducing infections.  (96% versus 79%)

Be careful how you word it.  Your above wording is quite misleading.


----------



## crush (Jul 3, 2021)

My last song, I promise.  This one has true meaning and if you take the time to listen and listen well, you will ALL understand none of this was your fault.  You did NOT start the fire.  I have one last meme for everyone and then I will be no more.


----------



## crush (Jul 3, 2021)




----------



## Soccerhelper (Jul 4, 2021)




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## Grace T. (Jul 4, 2021)

Soccerhelper said:


> View attachment 11088


Sigh.


----------



## Soccerhelper (Jul 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Sigh.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 4, 2021)

Soccerhelper said:


> View attachment 11089


Well, I think the one on the left will win, moo moo moo....lol!!!  Look Grace, I need serious help today.  All my old avatars have come back in my little brain and are all talking to me.  Basically, they want a chance to say goodbye as well.  Today is officially my last day to play with all of you.  I mean that 100%.  No more.  I believe after this stunt Dom will have no choice but to block me and all my avatars.  I want to be blocked and I need to be blocked for my own wellbeing and safety.


----------



## Soccerhelper (Jul 4, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Well, I think the one on the left will win, moo moo moo....lol!!!  Look Grace, I need serious help today.  All my old avatars have come back in my little brain and are all talking to me.  Basically, they want a chance to say goodbye as well.  Today is officially my last day to play with all of you.  I mean that 100%.  No more.  I believe after this stunt Dom will have no choice but to block me and all my avatars.  I want to be blocked and I need to be blocked for my own wellbeing and safety.


I agree bro.  New Wave Dave tried to log in but he forgot his password.  He sent me the following for all of you to read.

"Goodbye to all of you and I wish you all nothing but the best for all your dd."


----------



## Lifeisnotfare (Jul 4, 2021)

Soccerhelper said:


> View attachment 11089


I like the one on the left too


----------



## Lifeisnotfare (Jul 4, 2021)

The bad news is life is not only super hard, it's not fair either.  However, I want everyone to know that after today, life will start being based on merit and what you do with your talent(s).  It will still take hard work folks, but all work will be rewarded fairly and equally based off effort and results.  I too want to say, "farewell my dear friends from the past."  Make this years July 4th one to remember.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 4, 2021)

Soccerhelper said:


> View attachment 11088


Or one could quit being a weak POS like that guy (yes I’ve seen him interviewed with his partner and they are A-typical insecure, compensating for something, weak minded jerks, sound familiar?) and be a man. The game is obvious.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 4, 2021)

Lifeisnotfare said:


> The bad news is life is not only super hard, it's not fair either.  However, I want everyone to know that after today, life will start being based on merit and what you do with your talent(s).  It will still take hard work folks, but all work will be rewarded fairly and equally based off effort and results.  I too want to say, "farewell my dear friends from the past."  Make this years July 4th one to remember.


Don’t be a fucking pussy.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 4, 2021)

"Emerging data suggest people infected with the Delta variant - the variant behind most of Australia's current cases and highly prevalent around the world - are experiencing symptoms different to those we commonly associated with COVID earlier in the pandemic."

--

"While we still have more to learn about the Delta variant, this emerging data is important because it shows us that what we might think of as just a mild winter cold - a runny nose and a sore throat - could be a case of COVID-19."

--






						Early Reports on Delta Variant Symptoms Indicate They Are Different From Normal
					

We've been living in a COVID world for more than 18 months now.




					www.sciencealert.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 4, 2021)

Had a family picnic at the beach for the 4th.  Was an uncle in law there who has served in the uniformed public health corp and was posted to nih in the early 2000s. He didn’t know anything about how things went down in the pandemic but did have interesting Fauci gossip. Apparently they called him Napoleon and he had a reputation for being grouchy and he had a chip on his shoulder about how he was criticized after the aids crisis.


----------



## espola (Jul 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Had a family picnic at the beach for the 4th.  Was an uncle in law there who has served in the uniformed public health corp and was posted to nih in the early 2000s. He didn’t know anything about how things went down in the pandemic but did have interesting Fauci gossip. Apparently they called him Napoleon and he had a reputation for being grouchy and he had a chip on his shoulder about how he was criticized after the aids crisis.


But we know that you are too classy to pass on any gossip like that, right?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 5, 2021)

espola said:


> But we know that you are too classy to pass on any gossip like that, right?


Funny coming from you Magoo.


----------



## espola (Jul 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Funny coming from you Magoo.


I don't believe I have ever quoted an uncle-in-law or any other conveniently anonymous relative, but my cousin's cousin's girlfriend's father suspects that people who criticize Fauci without specific reason are just upset that he made t look so bad. 

The" Napoleon" jibe is fairly common for a short person in charge of a large group of people.  (Boldly stated behind the target's back with the door closed)

As for Fauci's reputation in the AIDS crisis, it didn't take long to find a more balanced viewpoint -- 

https://www.thebodypro.com/article/tony-fauci-md-coronavirus


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 5, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't believe I have ever quoted an uncle-in-law or any other conveniently anonymous relative, but my cousin's cousin's girlfriend's father suspects that people who criticize Fauci without specific reason are just upset that he made t look so bad.
> 
> The" Napoleon" jibe is fairly common for a short person in charge of a large group of people.  (Boldly stated behind the target's back with the door closed)
> 
> ...


You can please some of the people some of the time but you can’t please all the people all of the time. Like reading product reviews some people just had a bad experience that sometimes you see right in the review is mostly or partially their own fault . . . or they just have an (political) axe to grind.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 5, 2021)

Interesting correlation between covid cases and birthdays.  

Birthdays were associated with a 31% increase in positive covid tests.   Child birthdays were associated with a greater increase than adult birthdays.

Simplest explanation is that indoor birthday gatherings were spreading coronavirus.  

Unscientific back of the envelope says, if about one third of birthday party attendees were immediate family, then the birthday parties can account for about 3-4% of all cases.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Interesting correlation between covid cases and birthdays.
> 
> Birthdays were associated with a 31% increase in positive covid tests.   Child birthdays were associated with a greater increase than adult birthdays.
> 
> ...


What’s more interesting is that people in stay at home order states were just as likely to test positive after a birthday than those without.  It points to one of the reasons the us lockdowns were ineffective: they didn’t/couldn’t control against these types of informal gatherings.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> What’s more interesting is that people in stay at home order states were just as likely to test positive after a birthday than those without.  It points to one of the reasons the us lockdowns were ineffective: they didn’t/couldn’t control against these types of informal gatherings.


I don’t see why you phrase it as a government centric angle rather than an individual responsibility angle.  We are the ones who held the indoor gatherings, not NIH.   

This is more of a time to look back and say “I personally should not have done that.”.    It is sadly dependent to say, “That was a bad idea.  Why didn’t the government stop me?”


----------



## espola (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> What’s more interesting is that people in stay at home order states were just as likely to test positive after a birthday than those without.  It points to one of the reasons the us lockdowns were ineffective: they didn’t/couldn’t control against these types of informal gatherings.


That's pretty twisted logic.

Let's see -- we don't need stop signs because people will still run them.   We don't need fireworks bans because people will find a way to get them anyway.  The offside rules in soccer should be eliminated because people are still offside in every game.

Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera,

Please continue.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don’t see why you phrase it as a government centric angle rather than an individual responsibility angle.  We are the ones who held the indoor gatherings, not NIH.
> 
> This is more of a time to look back and say “I personally should not have done that.”.    It is sadly dependent to say, “That was a bad idea.  Why didn’t the government stop me?”


Daddy said don’t but we did anyways and got sick! It’s daddy’s fault!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 6, 2021)

espola said:


> That's pretty twisted logic.
> 
> Let's see -- we don't need stop signs because people will still run them.   We don't need fireworks bans because people will find a way to get them anyway.  The offside rules in soccer should be eliminated because people are still offside in every game.
> 
> ...


People still bring guns into gun free zones so why bother.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> People still bring guns into gun free zones so why bother.


Berkeley is a nuclear free zone.  Hope the analogy doesn’t carry too far.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don’t see why you phrase it as a government centric angle rather than an individual responsibility angle.  We are the ones who held the indoor gatherings, not NIH.
> 
> This is more of a time to look back and say “I personally should not have done that.”.    It is sadly dependent to say, “That was a bad idea.  Why didn’t the government stop me?”


That's the difference in our philosophies.  I approach policy knowing people sometimes are devils and will fail.  You approach it hoping that people will be angels.  When that fails, as it inevitably must, you get frustrated and fall back on authoritarianism.  That's also why you are doing religion, instead of policy, preaching for folks to be better.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

espola said:


> That's pretty twisted logic.
> 
> Let's see -- we don't need stop signs because people will still run them.   We don't need fireworks bans because people will find a way to get them anyway.  The offside rules in soccer should be eliminated because people are still offside in every game.
> 
> ...


The only thing you have demonstrated with your comment is a stunning misunderstanding of the intent and function of the offside rule.


----------



## watfly (Jul 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "Emerging data suggest people infected with the Delta variant - the variant behind most of Australia's current cases and highly prevalent around the world - are experiencing symptoms different to those we commonly associated with COVID earlier in the pandemic."
> 
> --
> 
> ...


Maybe, just maybe, we're looking at the Delta strain the wrong way.  If the symptoms are mild, maybe its the best way to self "vaccinate" the healthy that have yet to be vaccinated and to close the loop on herd immunity.  It's still in the best interest of the vulnerable to get vaccinated.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> Maybe, just maybe, we're looking at the Delta strain the wrong way.  If the symptoms are mild, maybe its the best way to self "vaccinate" the healthy that have yet to be vaccinated and to close the loop on herd immunity.  It's still in the best interest of the vulnerable to get vaccinated.


Immunity from both natural and vaccines is imperfect, giving the virus hosts to mutate in.  You'd have to blow it out and blow it out quickly by deliberately trying to infect people (worldwide including in places which don't have enough vaccine) so as to give the virus less time to mutate (though mutations are a function of both time and host count, so you are still giving it umpteen different times to mutate away from existing immunity...would be more feasible if we had achieved a threshold in global vaccinations).

More than likely, it's here to stay (at least for several years to come) as life will find away and it has enough time and hosts to further mutate before vaccination is deployed worldwide.  We haven't even managed to eradicate polio (there's yet another push announced 4 weeks ago to eradicate it by 2026....difficult though when it hides in places like Afghanistan and Pakistan where governments have little functional control).  It's going to be a bad cold....and yes it will kill people...many of the same people flu or adenovirus or rsv would have killed.


----------



## watfly (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Immunity from both natural and vaccines is imperfect, giving the virus hosts to mutate in.  You'd have to blow it out and blow it out quickly by deliberately trying to infect people (worldwide including in places which don't have enough vaccine) so as to give the virus less time to mutate (though mutations are a function of both time and host count, so you are still giving it umpteen different times to mutate away from existing immunity...would be more feasible if we had achieved a threshold in global vaccinations).
> 
> More than likely, it's here to stay (at least for several years to come) as life will find away and it has enough time and hosts to further mutate before vaccination is deployed worldwide.  We haven't even managed to eradicate polio (there's yet another push announced 4 weeks ago to eradicate it by 2026....difficult though when it hides in places like Afghanistan and Pakistan where governments have little functional control).  It's going to be a bad cold....and yes it will kill people...many of the same people flu or adenovirus or rsv would have killed.


I have no doubts that Covid is going to linger in some form our another for a while, which only gives more fodder to the eradication proponents who continue to push for restrictions.  Despite the fact it's likely on par or less harmful than the seasonal flu at this point and points in the future.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 6, 2021)

A Review of COVID-19 Deaths in Two California Counties Drops the Total by Nearly 25%
					

Two California counties find deaths from COVID-19 have been overcounted by nearly 25% after an analysis of the patient's full medical record.




					pjmedia.com


----------



## espola (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The only thing you have demonstrated with your comment is a stunning misunderstanding of the intent and function of the offside rule.


I think it is a perfect parallel.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's the difference in our philosophies.  I approach policy knowing people sometimes are devils and will fail.  You approach it hoping that people will be angels.  When that fails, as it inevitably must, you get frustrated and fall back on authoritarianism.  That's also why you are doing religion, instead of policy, preaching for folks to be better.


Interesting pivot away from the core question of personal responsibility.  You’re still looking to make it government centric.  What should the government do to make me behave?

They gave you information.  That ought to have been enough.  It is our responsibility as rational adult human beings to use it.  

The paper is simply evidence that the high case rates were, at least in part, the result of private gatherings that we chose to hold.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Interesting pivot away from the core question of personal responsibility.  You’re still looking to make it government centric.  What should the government do to make me behave?
> 
> They gave you information.  That ought to have been enough.  It is our responsibility as rational adult human beings to use it.
> 
> The paper is simply evidence that the high case rates were, at least in part, the result of private gatherings that we chose to hold.


What are governments doing to fight the global obesity pandemic?

I think Grace’s point is well within the scope of the core question as it appears when we shut down all options people will inherently find a way to be around other people, it’s in our nature.


----------



## watfly (Jul 6, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> What are governments doing to fight the global obesity pandemic?
> 
> I think Grace’s point is well within the scope of the core question as it appears when we shut down all options people will inherently find a way to be around other people, it’s in our nature.


American's are typically social, independent, self reliant, risk tolerant and solution oriented creatures.  Our MO has always been to address crises head on instead of hiding.  Rightly or wrongly, lockdowns are antithetical to this mentality.  We should have leveraged creativity and not fear.


----------



## espola (Jul 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> American's are typically social, independent, self reliant, risk tolerant and solution oriented creatures.  Our MO has always been to address crises head on instead of hiding.  Rightly or wrongly, lockdowns are antithetical to this mentality.  We should have leveraged creativity and not fear.


Nonsense.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Interesting pivot away from the core question of personal responsibility.  You’re still looking to make it government centric.  What should the government do to make me behave?
> 
> They gave you information.  That ought to have been enough.  It is our responsibility as rational adult human beings to use it.
> 
> The paper is simply evidence that the high case rates were, at least in part, the result of private gatherings that we chose to hold.


Back in the 1920s it would have been great if the govt had told people about the abuse and dangers of alcohol instead of trying to prohibit it outright.  You are the preacher preaching prohibition in this scenario.  When your prescription fails, you then run to the govt to enforce your prescription based on the failings of your fellow humans. I don't care about preaching.  I care about policy and the impact those decisions.  The thing you've primary shown to me is that if the govt shuts down dining and other indoor business, people will gather indoors privately.  Also they are more likely to let go of a meal with a coworker than telling jr. to skip their birthday this year (the same probably goes for Thanksgiving and Christmas).  That leaves you with a choice: enforce roadblocks and bans on private gatherings, or recognizes NPIS such as shutting down dining (indoor or outdoor) or outdoor activities might be counterproductive.


----------



## watfly (Jul 6, 2021)

espola said:


> Nonsense.


It's trending towards nonsense, and therein lies the problem.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Back in the 1920s it would have been great if the govt had told people about the abuse and dangers of alcohol instead of trying to prohibit it outright.  You are the preacher preaching prohibition in this scenario.  When your prescription fails, you then run to the govt to enforce your prescription based on the failings of your fellow humans. I don't care about preaching.  I care about policy and the impact those decisions.  The thing you've primary shown to me is that if the govt shuts down dining and other indoor business, people will gather indoors privately.  Also they are more likely to let go of a meal with a coworker than telling jr. to skip their birthday this year (the same probably goes for Thanksgiving and Christmas).  That leaves you with a choice: enforce roadblocks and bans on private gatherings, or recognizes NPIS such as shutting down dining (indoor or outdoor) or outdoor activities might be counterproductive.


Yet another pivot.  I understand you would rather talk about Prohibition than talk about personal responsibility for disease transmission.

But the study wasn’t about prohibition.  It wasn’t even about government policies of any kind.  

The study was a simple demonstration that our individual decisions to hold birthday parties were a significant factor in the spread of coronavirus around our communities.  

Think of it as a counterexample to Watfly’s claim that Americans inherently step up to a challenge and address crises.  This was a case where, when faced with evidence of a crisis, we did exactly the thing which causes it to get worse.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> we did exactly the thing which causes it to get worse


People are social. 

Unless you physically lock people up, they are going to socialize. That is the point @Grace T. and others are making. The prohibitions on biz, gatherings simply moved people from those areas to other areas (private gatherings).

Then when you factor in a significant portion of our population still has to go into work, there is no chance to stop the spread of the virus. 

If you live on an island and shut off all outside travel, yes, temporarily you can stop the spread. As soon as you open your borders (Aus/NZ) you will seen the virus re-appear.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Yet another pivot.  I understand you would rather talk about Prohibition than talk about personal responsibility for disease transmission.
> 
> But the study wasn’t about prohibition.  It wasn’t even about government policies of any kind.
> 
> ...


Wow are a total math guy when you cant even distinguish a pivot and an analogy.

My point is I'm interested in policy.  You are preaching...demanding people be "just better".  "when faced with evidence of a crisis, we did exactly the thing which causes it to get worse."  So what do you want to do about it?  Preach and hope people get better?  o.k.....but I think your comment about watfly illustrates you don't think they will.  So what then????

BTW....this is why I'm a member of a left-leaning church yet lean right when it comes to policy prescriptions and politics....there's no contradiction....it's the job of religion to help us become better people....but when government does it it generally duffs the policy because government involves using force.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 6, 2021)

By the way the western vaccines seem rather effective vs Mr Delta. 

Take a look at the UK. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Now on the other hand the Russian vaccine appears to be a failure, much like the Chi Com sinovac. 

Russia has the Delta variant as well. Cases are rising as are deaths.


----------



## watfly (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Think of it as a counterexample to Watfly’s claim that Americans inherently step up to a challenge and address crises.  This was a case where, when faced with evidence of a crisis, we did exactly the thing which causes it to get worse.


In terms of Covid only outcomes, arguably your correct.  In terms of overall outcomes, the government overreach made things much worse.   If we had let American ingenuity take the lead we would have been far better off economically, educationally and medically in regards to non-Covid health impacts.  The pandemic has created a whole new class of those dependent on the government.  If there is any question about that ask any business owner trying to hire right now (and spare me the Biden excuse that the jobs being offered just aren't good enough)


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way the western vaccines seem rather effective vs Mr Delta.
> 
> Take a look at the UK. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
> 
> ...


Are the Russian deaths rising even among the vaccinated (haven't seen that) or is it that just so many people aren't vaccinated because they don't trust the Russian government's vaccine efforts?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Are the Russian deaths rising even among the vaccinated (haven't seen that) or is it that just so many people aren't vaccinated because they don't trust the Russian government's vaccine efforts?


Good point.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> In terms of Covid only outcomes, arguably your correct.  In terms of overall outcomes, the government overreach made things much worse.   If we had let American ingenuity take the lead we would have been far better off economically, educationally and medically in regards to non-Covid health impacts.  The pandemic has created a whole new class of those dependent on the government.  If there is any question about that ask any business owner trying to hire right now (and spare me the Biden excuse that the jobs being offered just aren't good enough)


We, the people, held the parties which made this worse.  Not we, the government.  

Why is it that covid is making all the conservatives here talk about things the government should do?  We have very clear evidence that our _personal_ actions made the pandemic worse.  This is not a governmental question.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We, the people, held the parties which made this worse.  Not we, the government.
> 
> Why is it that covid is making all the conservatives here talk about things the government should do?  We have very clear evidence that our _personal_ actions made the pandemic worse.  This is not a governmental question.


People dont make policy.  Governments do.  Like the prohibition preachers, you can't see the distinction.

The better question is o.k. you've preached.  People don't listen to you.  Now what you gonna do?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

Another reason I guess for men to get vaxxed.  Too bad ol crush isn't around anymore to see it.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1412489383282810881


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

Govt now going to go door to door to persuade you to vaccinate.  Guess they'll have to share the info as to who is and who isn't vaccinated with someone to get it implemented?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1412461976689680389


----------



## watfly (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> We, the people, held the parties which made this worse.  Not we, the government.
> 
> Why is it that covid is making all the conservatives here talk about things the government should do?  We have very clear evidence that our _personal_ actions made the pandemic worse.  This is not a governmental question.


Again we're talking past each other.  You only want to talk about Covid,  I want to talk about the whole picture.  We the people didn't close schools, businesses, and non-emergency health care.  Politicians did.  We the people were willing to get creative to stay open.  Would it have been the perfect solution to fighting Covid, nope, but neither were lockdowns, and the non-Covid impacts are significantly worse and longer term with lockdowns.

Part of making good public policy is making policy that is realistic and the public is likely to follow.  You can't scare the American public into following policies that are contradictory to its culture, even if you have the media as an accomplice.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's the difference in our philosophies.  I approach policy knowing people sometimes are devils and will fail.  You approach it hoping that people will be angels.  When that fails, as it inevitably must, you get frustrated and fall back on authoritarianism.  That's also why you are doing religion, instead of policy, preaching for folks to be better.


Talk about a twisted narrative! You type that with a straight face?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 6, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> What are governments doing to fight the global obesity pandemic?
> 
> I think Grace’s point is well within the scope of the core question as it appears when we shut down all options people will inherently find a way to be around other people, it’s in our nature.


You mean amongst the emotionally driven. Try thinking, reason, personal responsibility and caring about your effect on others.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 6, 2021)

watfly said:


> Again we're talking past each other.  You only want to talk about Covid,  I want to talk about the whole picture.  We the people didn't close schools, businesses, and non-emergency health care.  Politicians did.  We the people were willing to get creative to stay open.  Would it have been the perfect solution to fighting Covid, nope, but neither were lockdowns, and the non-Covid impacts are significantly worse and longer term with lockdowns.
> 
> Part of making good public policy is making policy that is realistic and the public is likely to follow.  You can't scare the American public into following policies that are contradictory to its culture, even if you have the media as an accomplice.


“Politicians did”? Lol! Please, you crack me up with your myopic viewpoint.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You mean amongst the emotionally driven. Try thinking, reason, personal responsibility and caring about your effect on others.


That’s funny because fear has been the prime motivator on the lockdown side. Talk about emotions.


----------



## espola (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s funny because fear has been the prime motivator on the lockdown side. Talk about emotions.


Is that so?  Is fear the reason we no longer allow the sale of radium-infused water, or is it a rational response to a demonstrated threat?


----------



## texanincali (Jul 6, 2021)

So what’s the story in the UK?  

Drastic spike in cases, 46% of which are vaccinated and the Govt is basically saying “screw it” and lifting all restrictions.

Are they saying restrictions don’t work, the vaccine doesn’t work, or both?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

espola said:


> Is that so?  Is fear the reason we no longer allow the sale of radium-infused water, or is it a rational response to a demonstrated threat?


very little of the response has been rational. It’s been political, fearful, or just plain guessed at. Remember they’d been planning a response to this for years. They tore up the playbook and decided to go China lite (which failed everywhere in the world….only China like seemed to work or turning your border into an island fortress).


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

texanincali said:


> So what’s the story in the UK?
> 
> Drastic spike in cases, 46% of which are vaccinated and the Govt is basically saying “screw it” and lifting all restrictions.
> 
> Are they saying restrictions don’t work, the vaccine doesn’t work, or both?


the vaccine does very well at preventing hospitalizations and deaths.  The vaccine decouples cases v hospitalization/death. The deaths projected we are looking at are now on par for the coming year with a moderate-bad flu season. We don’t do these restrictions every time we have a bad flu season, and everyone who wants one has been offered the vaccine (handful of exceptions such as kids under 12 who aren’t affected much anyways) therefor it’s rational to lift the restrictions


----------



## espola (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> very little of the response has been rational. It’s been political, fearful, or just plain guessed at. Remember they’d been planning a response to this for years. They tore up the playbook and decided to go China lite (which failed everywhere in the world….only China like seemed to work or turning your border into an island fortress).


Which "they" are we talking about here?  Fauci and the CDC realists, or t and his chorus of deniers?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

espola said:


> Which "they" are we talking about here?  Fauci and the CDC realists, or t and his chorus of deniers?


Trump can't escape responsibility here either.  He went along with Fauci and didn't fire him (though in fairness the question of whether he had the legal capacity to fire him from his post at the NIH is a thorny one).


----------



## dad4 (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Trump can't escape responsibility here either.  He went along with Fauci and didn't fire him (though in fairness the question of whether he had the legal capacity to fire him from his post at the NIH is a thorny one).


Went along?  Trump treated his scientific advisors like contestants on the apprentice.  You don’t get good advice out of scientists by attacking them on Twitter multiple times per day.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Went along?  Trump treated his scientific advisors like contestants on the apprentice.  You don’t get good advice out of scientists by attacking them on Twitter multiple times per day.


from the emails it’s pretty clear fauci encouraged the idea it would go away.  The masks, border closure, lockdowns, vaccines, stimulus 1…none of it was trumps idea. You can’t have it both ways: either he’s a moron incapable of a rational thought in which case he was largely listening to what they (including his son in law) were telling him, or he’s a mad genius that came up with all this stuff and fauci was asleep at the wheel.  You can say he followed the advice reluctantly and doing what he could to undermine it but it was only his responsibility in a buck stops here sort of way (the same way Biden has now missed his own vaccination goals)


----------



## what-happened (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Another reason I guess for men to get vaxxed.  Too bad ol crush isn't around anymore to see it.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1412489383282810881


The lengths they will go to get you vaxxed.


----------



## espola (Jul 6, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> from the emails it’s pretty clear fauci encouraged the idea it would go away.  The masks, border closure, lockdowns, vaccines, stimulus 1…none of it was trumps idea. You can’t have it both ways: either he’s a moron incapable of a rational thought in which case he was largely listening to what they (including his son in law) were telling him, or he’s a mad genius that came up with all this stuff and fauci was asleep at the wheel.  You can say he followed the advice reluctantly and doing what he could to undermine it but it was only his responsibility in a buck stops here sort of way (the same way Biden has now missed his own vaccination goals)


Did your uncle-in-law tell you about the emails or did you read them all yourself?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 7, 2021)

espola said:


> Did your uncle-in-law tell you about the emails or did you read them all yourself?


“Oh magoo, you’ve done it again!”


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> very little of the response has been rational. It’s been political, fearful, or just plain guessed at. Remember they’d been planning a response to this for years. They tore up the playbook and decided to go China lite (which failed everywhere in the world….only China like seemed to work or turning your border into an island fortress).


That’s the narrative you were fed, and swallowed whole.


----------



## watfly (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Politicians did”? Lol! Please, you crack me up with your myopic viewpoint.


Maybe so, but if you think that public schools didn't reopen this past fall for health reasons, and not political reasons, I suggest you do some more research.  I'd recommend you look into the American Academy of Pediatrics and National Academy of Medicine recommendations last year vs. UTLA and SDUSD pronouncements.  Particularly the timing of the school unions pronouncements in relation to Newsom's declaration regarding continued school closures.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 7, 2021)

Nearly all COVID deaths in US are now among unvaccinated
					

Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to under 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.




					apnews.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 7, 2021)

Undervaccinated red states are nowhere near herd immunity as dangerous Delta variant spreads
					

Many conservative-leaning U.S. states and communities are nowhere near reaching the level of COVID-19 vaccination that could keep them safe from future outbreaks of the highly contagious Delta coronavirus variant, according to the latest data from the CDC.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> That’s the narrative you were fed, and swallowed whole.


That's very funny coming from you.  Keep sucking on the blue pill.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> Maybe so, but if you think that public schools didn't reopen this past fall for health reasons, and not political reasons, I suggest you do some more research.  I'd recommend you look into the American Academy of Pediatrics and National Academy of Medicine recommendations last year vs. UTLA and SDUSD pronouncements.  Particularly the timing of the school unions pronouncements in relation to Newsom's declaration regarding continued school closures.


Who fuels the decisions? 73 mil listened to 1 man, a political hack. The rest it’s a mix with a high dose of experts sprinkled in. Are saying there is no political push from the “it’s a hoax””it’s not that bad””it will over by Easter” anti-vax crowd? Mistakes are made on both sides but prefer those that err on the side of protection with an eye to the overall good, or is that to lovey dovey for you?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That's very funny coming from you.  Keep sucking on the blue pill.


There is nothing humorous about your ignorance and naïveté.


----------



## watfly (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Undervaccinated red states are nowhere near herd immunity as dangerous Delta variant spreads
> 
> 
> Many conservative-leaning U.S. states and communities are nowhere near reaching the level of COVID-19 vaccination that could keep them safe from future outbreaks of the highly contagious Delta coronavirus variant, according to the latest data from the CDC.
> ...


There are certainly some far righties that are anti-vax.  In those southern states you also have a higher percentage of minorities which are really behind in vaccinations.  There is also lower socio-economic communities in those areas which I also suspect have lower vaccinations rates due to less access to healthcare and often don't seek out healthcare as regularly as higher socioeconomic groups.  In the mountain states they tend to be more independent and suspicious of government.

Not sure how you resolve this, but these states certainly need to do a better of encouraging there citizens to be vaccinated.  Of course, people do have the choice to assume risk.


----------



## watfly (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Who fuels the decisions? 73 mil listened to 1 man, a political hack. The rest it’s a mix with a high dose of experts sprinkled in. Are saying there is no political push from the “it’s a hoax””it’s not that bad””it will over by Easter” anti-vax crowd? Mistakes are made on both sides but prefer those that err on the side of protection with an eye to the overall good, or is that to lovey dovey for you?


I suggest you take a look at the sources I mentioned, it will give you a better understanding of the concept of "overall good".  My whole point all along is that not reopening schools was not for the overall good.  Myopic is only considering Covid outcomes.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> There is nothing humorous about your ignorance and naïveté.


In my experience trolls generally fall into 2 forms of people: 1) people who are trying to be funny since they find conflict humorous and amuse themselves the way a boy would by disturbing an ant hill, or 2) generally unpleasant people who are inadequate in other aspects of their lives and so seek to obtain a modicum of standing/power online.  If you are the first, you are a woeful failure at it (which makes your line stunningly lacking in any introspection).  If the second, hah!  good job being you....that blue pill must be mighty tasty.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> There is nothing humorous about your ignorance and naïveté.


Nor the hypocrisy that you demonstrate!


----------



## watfly (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Undervaccinated red states are nowhere near herd immunity as dangerous Delta variant spreads
> 
> 
> Many conservative-leaning U.S. states and communities are nowhere near reaching the level of COVID-19 vaccination that could keep them safe from future outbreaks of the highly contagious Delta coronavirus variant, according to the latest data from the CDC.
> ...


I would add...do you want to play the blue state vs. red state game with deaths per capita?  Death, vaccines and other Covid outcomes are primarily demographic related and not political.  I know the article is enticing clickbait for a partisan, but it is hardly based in reality.


----------



## watfly (Jul 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In my experience trolls generally fall into 2 forms of people: 1) people who are trying to be funny since they find conflict humorous and amuse themselves the way a boy would by disturbing an ant hill, or 2) generally unpleasant people who are inadequate in other aspects of their lives and so seek to obtain a modicum of standing/power online.  If you are the first, you are a woeful failure at it (which makes your line stunningly lacking in any introspection).  If the second, hah!  good job being you....that blue pill must be mighty tasty.


Hopefully I qualify under 1).


----------



## texanincali (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Nearly all COVID deaths in US are now among unvaccinated
> 
> 
> Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to under 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.
> ...


That's interesting seeing as the opposite is happening elsewhere. 

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)


----------



## espola (Jul 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In my experience trolls generally fall into 2 forms of people: 1) people who are trying to be funny since they find conflict humorous and amuse themselves the way a boy would by disturbing an ant hill, or 2) generally unpleasant people who are inadequate in other aspects of their lives and so seek to obtain a modicum of standing/power online.  If you are the first, you are a woeful failure at it (which makes your line stunningly lacking in any introspection).  If the second, hah!  good job being you....that blue pill must be mighty tasty.


On just about any measuring scale, people can be divided into two types -- those who can be placed on one of the two sides, and those who can't.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Nor the hypocrisy that you demonstrate!


What hypocrisy would that be?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In my experience trolls generally fall into 2 forms of people: 1) people who are trying to be funny since they find conflict humorous and amuse themselves the way a boy would by disturbing an ant hill, or 2) generally unpleasant people who are inadequate in other aspects of their lives and so seek to obtain a modicum of standing/power online.  If you are the first, you are a woeful failure at it (which makes your line stunningly lacking in any introspection).  If the second, hah!  good job being you....that blue pill must be mighty tasty.


You have issues, not my issue.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You have issues, not my issue.


I'm now beginning to wonder exactly how big that blue pill you are sucking on really is....whatever it is, it's certainly mind bending enough that it's probably illegal here in the US.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> What hypocrisy would that be?


I don’t need to point them out to you, they are obvious to all (except Magoo).


----------



## espola (Jul 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I don’t need to point them out to you, they are obvious to all (except Magoo).


If they are obvious enough for you to make the accusation, that should be easy for you to write down.  Otherwise, we are left with the impression that you really have nothing to say.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I don’t need to point them out to you, they are obvious to all (except Magoo).


So you are just a cheerleader with nothing to add.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So you are just a cheerleader with nothing to add.


No, I just know your M.O. and will let your actions/posts continue to support my statement.


----------



## espola (Jul 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No, I just know your M.O. and will let your actions/posts continue to support my statement.


Still nothing.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 7, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No, I just know your M.O. and will let your actions/posts continue to support my statement.


Ok if you can’t say so.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> There are certainly some far righties that are anti-vax.  In those southern states you also have a higher percentage of minorities which are really behind in vaccinations.  There is also lower socio-economic communities in those areas which I also suspect have lower vaccinations rates due to less access to healthcare and often don't seek out healthcare as regularly as higher socioeconomic groups.  In the mountain states they tend to be more independent and suspicious of government.
> 
> Not sure how you resolve this, but these states certainly need to do a better of encouraging there citizens to be vaccinated.  Of course, people do have the choice to assume risk.


It's more than just a few anti vax far right folks.

WSJ put the Dem vax rate at 80% and the Rep vax rate at 50%.  

Not surprising.   If you listen mostly to Fox, you probably think covid is minor, so why get vaccinated?  Flip side, if you read only NYT, you overestimate the risk and get vaccinated ASAP.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It's more than just a few anti vax far right folks.
> 
> WSJ put the Dem vax rate at 80% and the Rep vax rate at 50%.
> 
> Not surprising.   If you listen mostly to Fox, you probably think covid is minor, so why get vaccinated?  Flip side, if you read only NYT, you overestimate the risk and get vaccinated ASAP.


Still beating your drum. Lol


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> There is nothing humorous about your ignorance and naïveté.


That's where you come in.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 7, 2021)

espola said:


> Is that so?  Is fear the reason we no longer allow the sale of radium-infused water, or is it a rational response to a demonstrated threat?


See below.  Every now and then junior has something meaningful to add.



Hüsker Dü said:


> There is nothing humorous about your ignorance and naïveté.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 7, 2021)

texanincali said:


> So what’s the story in the UK?
> 
> Drastic spike in cases, 46% of which are vaccinated and the Govt is basically saying “screw it” and lifting all restrictions.
> 
> Are they saying restrictions don’t work, the vaccine doesn’t work, or both?


Both.  Clean drinking water, Good diet, healthy weight, daily exercise = A healthy immune system capable of 98% plus survival rate.  Even if you're 70+.  Don't let the Crisis Manufacturers fool you with their non-thinking  intelect.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Who fuels the decisions? 73 mil listened to 1 man, a political hack. The rest it’s a mix with a high dose of experts sprinkled in. Are saying there is no political push from the “it’s a hoax””it’s not that bad””it will over by Easter” anti-vax crowd? Mistakes are made on both sides but prefer those that err on the side of protection with an eye to the overall good, or is that to lovey dovey for you?


Eloquent babble as usual.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 8, 2021)

New Zealand children falling ill in high numbers due to Covid ‘immunity debt’
					

Doctors say children haven’t been exposed to range of bugs due to lockdowns, distancing and sanitiser and their immune systems are suffering




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 8, 2021)

Doh!  Epsilon variant and we are ground zero.  Time to panic and rush out to buy bottled water!  ^\_(';?)_/^









						California ‘Epsilon’ strain of COVID-19 could evade vaccines, study says
					

The variant has three spike protein mutations it uses to weaken current vaccines by up to 70 percent.




					nypost.com


----------



## watfly (Jul 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Doh!  Epsilon variant and we are ground zero.  Time to panic and rush out to buy bottled water!  ^\_(';?)_/^
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Zeta is going to be the super variant, even masks won't protect you against it.

(Who knew that Zeta was the next letter in the Greek alphabet after Epsilon?  I assumed it was Gamma...yes I had to look it up)


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Doh!  Epsilon variant and we are ground zero.  Time to panic and rush out to buy bottled water!  ^\_(';?)_/^
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Glad I took the two-pronged approach of 1) Vaccine and 2) Better diet, lose weight, and exercise more


----------



## dad4 (Jul 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Doh!  Epsilon variant and we are ground zero.  Time to panic and rush out to buy bottled water!  ^\_(';?)_/^
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Given that LA was ground zero for Epsilon, and LA's numbers still fell as vaccinations rose, I think the answer is "the vaccine still works."

The bigger issue is Delta growing within the unvax community.  We may have a mask mandate again this fall/winter if it keeps doubling.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Given that LA was ground zero for Epsilon, and LA's numbers still fell as vaccinations rose, I think the answer is "the vaccine still works."
> 
> The bigger issue is Delta growing within the unvax community.  We may have a mask mandate again this fall/winter if it keeps doubling.


The issue though with the masks mandates is that it has consequences throughout the system.  If masks returns, then social distancing requirements in schools may also be necessary (which means public schools can't cope with capacity limitations in some places).  Transport like school buses remains restricted.  Parents still have a hard time working.  Offices will likely be reshuttered to the extent open.  I suppose it's possible there's a decoupling and the authorities say "oh let's just use masks as an extra precaution but otherwise continue with things as normal", but given how things have gone down so far, I highly doubt it.  Once you have the masks, you open the door to the other stuff too


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not surprising. If you listen mostly to Fox, you probably think covid is minor, so why get vaccinated? Flip side, if you read only NYT, you overestimate the risk and get vaccinated ASAP.


Another explanation could be Dems like gov action more than Repubs.


dad4 said:


> The bigger issue is Delta growing within the unvax community. We may have a mask mandate again this fall/winter if it keeps doubling.


If there is a mask mandate it will simply be another mistake by politicians. 

We already see in the UK that they have a spike in cases with no corresponding increase (or anything close) to hospitalizations or deaths.

So that is key #1. 

Maybe more importantly is the following. 

The other thing that has been reported on widely is that with the current vaccines in place, it isn't hard to tweak them to deal with other variants if necessary. We now have the manufacturing and supply chains in place to quickly create and distribute a new variation of a vaccine.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Given that LA was ground zero for Epsilon, and LA's numbers still fell as vaccinations rose, I think the answer is "the vaccine still works."
> 
> The bigger issue is Delta growing within the unvax community.  We may have a mask mandate again this fall/winter if it keeps doubling.


Why on earth would I wear a mask if I’m vaccinated?  If you don’t want to get vax’d it’s your prerogative and if your not vax’d and you don’t want to wear a mask.  Also, your prerogative.  

I got Vax’d to protect me, not you.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 8, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Why on earth would I wear a mask if I’m vaccinated?  If you don’t want to get vax’d it’s your prerogative and if your not vax’d and you don’t want to wear a mask.  Also, your prerogative.
> 
> I got Vax’d to protect me, not you.


1- people who got vaccinated can still carry and spread low levels of the virus.

2- it is easier to enforce a mask rule if it applied to everyone.

My doctor’s office still requires masks for everyone.  It won’t kill me if I have to wear one at the grocery store, too.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 8, 2021)

Well we already have supply chain issues for many items/components.

This isn't helping and in fact it is making it worse.









						Yantian port shipping delays worse than those caused by Suez Canal fiasco
					

Weeks of coronavirus-containment efforts following outbreaks among dockworkers in China’s Pearl River Delta have caused global backlogs and inventory shortages, bringing some major ports in South China to a standstill.




					www.scmp.com
				




And other related news.









						Your Christmas shopping this year could be held up by a staggering shipping backlog in China's southern ports
					

Experts say the COVID lockdown in Guangzhou may have caused a "ripple effect" along the global supply chain that exceeds the crisis caused by the Ever Given.




					www.insider.com
				












						Where are all the containers? The global shortage explained
					





					www.hillebrand.com
				












						How three Chinese companies cornered global container production
					

The containers that U.S. shippers need are all built in China, where factories could set a new production record this year.




					www.freightwaves.com
				












						Cheap furniture and toys could soon get much more expensive as retailers are hit by rising shipping costs
					

"In 40 years in toy retailing I have never known such challenging conditions from the point of view of pricing," the founder of a toy store said.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> 1- people who got vaccinated can still carry and spread low levels of the virus.
> 
> 2- it is easier to enforce a mask rule if it applied to everyone.
> 
> My doctor’s office still requires masks for everyone.  It won’t kill me if I have to wear one at the grocery store, too.


Once again hobble the masses to protect them minority. Great plan!

Not to mention any mask mandate will decimate you attempts at getting more people vax’d.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 8, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Jul 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The issue though with the masks mandates is that it has consequences throughout the system.  If masks returns, then social distancing requirements in schools may also be necessary (which means public schools can't cope with capacity limitations in some places).  Transport like school buses remains restricted.  Parents still have a hard time working.  Offices will likely be reshuttered to the extent open.  I suppose it's possible there's a decoupling and the authorities say "oh let's just use masks as an extra precaution but otherwise continue with things as normal", but given how things have gone down so far, I highly doubt it.  Once you have the masks, you open the door to the other stuff too


Adults wearing masks at Von's has nothing to do with whether schools need 6 foot spacing.  You can easily have one without the other.

You're just linking them together for rhetorical effect.  Similar to someone who hates drunk driving rules, and links them to speed traps.  ( After all, we all hate speed traps, so the government has gone too far, and therefore drunk driving must be ok...) 

No logic in it, but it can be effective to tie your apples to your rotten oranges and hope no one notices.


----------



## espola (Jul 8, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Glad I took the two-pronged approach of 1) Vaccine and 2) Better diet, lose weight, and exercise more


In tried to take the C) get younger approach, but my doctor would not cooperate.


----------



## espola (Jul 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The issue though with the masks mandates is that it has consequences throughout the system.  If masks returns, then social distancing requirements in schools may also be necessary (which means public schools can't cope with capacity limitations in some places).  Transport like school buses remains restricted.  Parents still have a hard time working.  Offices will likely be reshuttered to the extent open.  I suppose it's possible there's a decoupling and the authorities say "oh let's just use masks as an extra precaution but otherwise continue with things as normal", but given how things have gone down so far, I highly doubt it.  Once you have the masks, you open the door to the other stuff too


Or we could all just drink bleach.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Adults wearing masks at Von's has nothing to do with whether schools need 6 foot spacing.  You can easily have one without the other.
> 
> You're just linking them together for rhetorical effect.  Similar to someone who hates drunk driving rules, and links them to speed traps.  ( After all, we all hate speed traps, so the government has gone too far, and therefore drunk driving must be ok...)
> 
> No logic in it, but it can be effective to tie your apples to your rotten oranges and hope no one notices.


As usual you can’t see it.  The problem is as soon as you require universal masking again you are telling people “it’s not safe”. If “it’s not safe” the 1/3 of the pop that’s in a panic (including the teachers unions) ask about the other restrictions. It’s possible to decouple them but nothing in the history of this suggests the authorities, particularly in the blue states that might do this while the red ones refuse, will do that as it will take effort to depanic that 1/3.  You yourself once cases go up and universal masking is called for will be demanding they shut down indoor dining and bars and you know that.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As usual you can’t see it.  The problem is as soon as you require universal masking again you are telling people “it’s not safe”. If “it’s not safe” the 1/3 of the pop that’s in a panic (including the teachers unions) ask about the other restrictions. It’s possible to decouple them but nothing in the history of this suggests the authorities, particularly in the blue states that might do this while the red ones refuse, will do that as it will take effort to depanic that 1/3.  You yourself once cases go up and universal masking is called for will be demanding they shut down indoor dining and bars and you know that.


You ought to be smart enough to know that "X is safe, but Y is not safe" is a gross oversimplification.

If we are asked to mask up this winter, don't read too much into it.   All it means is that we need better anti-virus measures in winter because that is when covid spreads more easily.  So you do the easy things, like masks at the grocery store, in an effort to avoid the hard things, like school closures.

Refusing to do your part just makes it worse.  The numbers go higher, which makes the harsher measures that much more likely.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You ought to be smart enough to know that "X is safe, but Y is not safe" is a gross oversimplification.
> 
> If we are asked to mask up this winter, don't read too much into it.   All it means is that we need better anti-virus measures in winter because that is when covid spreads more easily.  So you do the easy things, like masks at the grocery store, in an effort to avoid the hard things, like school closures.
> 
> Refusing to do your part just makes it worse.  The numbers go higher, which makes the harsher measures that much more likely.


a. Now we’re not talking policy or religion but marketing…in most people’s minds it’s a binary choice between safe and not.  The 1/3 who panic makes it unlikely you can decouple.   See teachers Union behavior to date
b picking the most ineffective of the measures is funny. It’s tokenism in the extreme as Asia is now showing 
C govts would have to make an effort to decouple which blue states werent
d you are being dishonest with both yourself and us. You know you won’t stop just at masks.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 8, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Once again hobble the masses to protect them minority. Great plan!
> 
> Not to mention any mask mandate will decimate you attempts at getting more people vax’d.


Does it just end there?  Mask mandate, squeeze back in social distancing (the greatest two word combo ever), limit capacity within the service industry, "targeted" lockdowns to contain?


----------



## espola (Jul 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a. Now we’re not talking policy or religion but marketing…in most people’s minds it’s a binary choice between safe and not.  The 1/3 who panic makes it unlikely you can decouple.   See teachers Union behavior to date
> b picking the most ineffective of the measures is funny. It’s tokenism in the extreme as Asia is now showing
> C govts would have to make an effort to decouple which blue states werent
> d you are being dishonest with both yourself and us. You know you won’t stop just at masks.


It stops at vaccination and contact tracing.


----------



## watfly (Jul 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It's more than just a few anti vax far right folks.
> 
> WSJ put the Dem vax rate at 80% and the Rep vax rate at 50%.
> 
> Not surprising.   If you listen mostly to Fox, you probably think covid is minor, so why get vaccinated?  Flip side, if you read only NYT, you overestimate the risk and get vaccinated ASAP.


Non-scientific anecdotal observation about vaccines and Democrats and Republicans.  Only a couple of Righty friends (that I'm aware of) won't get the vaccine.  One is just now recovering from a bad bout of Covid, I'm sure he is regretting that decision.  A lot of my Lefty friends felt it was necessary to post a picture of their vaccination sticker or card on social media.  For some reason it was really important for them to proclaim their vaccination status to the public.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 8, 2021)

espola said:


> Or we could all just drink bleach.


Had life long friend of the family and super trumper say 3 outta 5 of her close family had the Covid but were cured by hydroxy and zinc.  “It took a couple weeks, but everyone is cured and now immune. Except they now have bad acid reflux.”


----------



## espola (Jul 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Had life long friend of the family and super trumper say 3 outta 5 of her close family had the Covid but were cured by hydroxy and zinc.  “It took a couple weeks, but everyone is cured and now immune. Except they now have bad acid reflux.”


Grace posted a link recently to the English covid video guy who analyzed a couple of studies using remdesivir against covid.  The results were mildly optimistic, but what she missed was that those who received only placebo medication also did better than those who got nothing.  In most places, placebos (sugar pills or sterile saline injections, typically) are dirt cheap, so a rigid cost-benefit analysis would work in favor of the placebo treatment.


----------



## N00B (Jul 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Had life long friend of the family and super trumper say 3 outta 5 of her close family had the Covid but were cured by hydroxy and zinc.  “It took a couple weeks, but everyone is cured and now immune. Except they now have bad acid reflux.”


Troll type #1


----------



## whatithink (Jul 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The other thing that has been reported on widely is that with the current vaccines in place, it isn't hard to tweak them to deal with other variants if necessary. We now have the manufacturing and supply chains in place to quickly create and distribute a new variation of a vaccine.


I read that Israel found that the Pfizer vaccine was only 64% effective against the Delta variant but 94% (or maybe 95%) effective in minimizing the impact. Israel rolled out the vaccine quicker than anyone and opened up. THey are at about 60% vaccinated, but have a new surge.









						With COVID comeback, ministers tighten Ben Gurion isolation requirement
					

Though coronavirus cabinet doesn't impose major new restrictions, it orders rapid testing at geriatric centers, summer camps; quarantine period may be shortened




					www.timesofisrael.com
				




On the manufacturing piece, I see that Pfizer is now quoting that report (smallish sample size) and trying to get approval for a booster shot after 6 months, esp. for older people (not sure that they defined that).

I also note that Pfizer expects to bank $25B in revenue in 2021 due to the Covid vaccine. Estimates have Covid related vaccines banking $157B in revenue through 2025.

So expect booster shots (6 months is good for the pharma industry) and annual shots and so on until people treat it like the flu shot - some get it, most don't, people die, but we get to live our lives.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> We now have the manufacturing and supply chains in place to quickly create and distribute a new variation of a vaccine.


I would add that if "we" is the US only or the "developed ($) world", then this is somewhat true. But until this is true worldwide, there will be new variants popping up all the time. The vaccine rollout in the US has been very impressive, relative to anyone or everyone else. Most of the world is still way behind us.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 8, 2021)

espola said:


> It stops at vaccination and contact tracing.


Sucker


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Had life long friend of the family and super trumper say 3 outta 5 of her close family had the Covid but were cured by hydroxy and zinc.  “It took a couple weeks, but everyone is cured and now immune. Except they now have bad acid reflux.”


Hanapaa!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 8, 2021)

espola said:


> Grace posted a link recently to the English covid video guy who analyzed a couple of studies using remdesivir against covid.  The results were mildly optimistic, but what she missed was that those who received only placebo medication also did better than those who got nothing.  In most places, placebos (sugar pills or sterile saline injections, typically) are dirt cheap, so a rigid cost-benefit analysis would work in favor of the placebo treatment.


 cherry picker


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 8, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I would add that if "we" is the US only or the "developed ($) world", then this is somewhat true. But until this is true worldwide, there will be new variants popping up all the time. The vaccine rollout in the US has been very impressive, relative to anyone or everyone else. Most of the world is still way behind us.


Tokyo is at about 5% vaccination and is going into restrictions again but Olympics games on! (If without spectators).


----------



## whatithink (Jul 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Tokyo is at about 5% vaccination and is going into restrictions again but Olympics games on! (If without spectators).


Yes and 80-90K people coming into the country for it. The IOC seem to have Japan over a barrel with the Japanese (public) not wanting it anymore. They did decide not to distribute 100K (or something) condoms, as they usually do at the Olympics. That should sort out any potential contacts among tens of thousands of supremely fit athletes in a bubble for weeks .

Then you have the Euro final in London with Uefa "exempting" 2-3K people from the UK's quarantine rules (or they would move the final). At least the UK have rolled out the vaccine pretty efficiently, although slightly differently with the delay in second doses.


----------



## watfly (Jul 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Tokyo is at about 5% vaccination and is going into restrictions again but Olympics games on! (If without spectators).


Wow, I didn't realize there were so many Republicans in Japan.


----------



## watfly (Jul 9, 2021)

Vaccinated teachers, students don't need masks inside school buildings, CDC says: Live COVID-19 updates
					

A booster shot of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech strongly extends protection, a new study shows. The latest COVID updates.



					www.usatoday.com
				




How many California school districts will ignore this guidance?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> Vaccinated teachers, students don't need masks inside school buildings, CDC says: Live COVID-19 updates
> 
> 
> A booster shot of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech strongly extends protection, a new study shows. The latest COVID updates.
> ...


Starting off the day with trick questions I see. 

Bet hard on A LOT.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> Vaccinated teachers, students don't need masks inside school buildings, CDC says: Live COVID-19 updates
> 
> 
> A booster shot of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech strongly extends protection, a new study shows. The latest COVID updates.
> ...


It also set up that the blue states will require masks on children under age 12 at least at the beginning (last I heard the trials on pfizer for the over 5 were due September-October)


----------



## watfly (Jul 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Starting off the day with trick questions I see.
> 
> Bet hard on A LOT.


They will be hearing from me if my kid's districts go the all mask route.

It's so counterproductive to getting kids vaccinated.  I certainly won't vaccinate my youngest if he is still required to wear a mask vaccinated or not.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> Wow, I didn't realize there were so many Republicans in Japan.


Trumpers through and through.


----------



## espola (Jul 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> Wow, I didn't realize there were so many Republicans in Japan.


Japan's low-vaccination problem has not been political insanity, but instead lack of vaccine doses.  Japan has no national source of any of the vaccines and relies entirely on imports, which were slow to arrive until late May.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Japan's low-vaccination problem has not been political insanity, but instead lack of vaccine doses.  Japan has no national source of any of the vaccines and relies entirely on imports, which were slow to arrive until late May.


Certainly true, add to that their strict clinical trials requirements for new drugs and their ultra conservative approach to administering drugs.  They will not rely on the public sector (Wal greens, CVS) to administer vaccines.


----------



## watfly (Jul 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Japan's low-vaccination problem has not been political insanity, but instead lack of vaccine doses.  Japan has no national source of any of the vaccines and relies entirely on imports, which were slow to arrive until late May.


Do you really find it necessary to "fact-check" sarcasm?


----------



## espola (Jul 9, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Certainly true, add to that their strict clinical trials requirements for new drugs and their ultra conservative approach to administering drugs.  They will not rely on the public sector (Wal greens, CVS) to administer vaccines.


Did you mean the private sector?  Japan Self-Defense Force and national health authorities are administering as much of the vaccines as they can get, along with some large private companies offering vaccinations to their employees.


----------



## espola (Jul 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> Do you really find it necessary to "fact-check" sarcasm?


"Political insanity" was reflected sarcasm.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Did you mean the private sector?  Japan Self-Defense Force and national health authorities are administering as much of the vaccines as they can get, along with some large private companies offering vaccinations to their employees.


private sector...yes..


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> Wow, I didn't realize there were so many Republicans in Japan.


And only 4.3% of Japanese are obese.  Enough to keep Sumo wrestling alive.  The U.S. is nearly 10x the Japanese obesity rate.  Why is Japan shutting down given the 98%+ survival rate pre- and post-vax.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Japan's low-vaccination problem has not been political insanity, but instead lack of vaccine doses.  Japan has no national source of any of the vaccines and relies entirely on imports, which were slow to arrive until late May.


Hanapaa!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 9, 2021)

espola said:


> "Political insanity" was reflected sarcasm.


Too late.  You are on ice bleeding out.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 9, 2021)

My bestie had COVID and is now not feeling well.  Went to get a panel because the symptoms are weird and COVID-like but she's already had COVID.  Turns out she has OC-43....one of the original non-covid coronaviruses.  Looks like the COVID antibodies or T-cells prevented her from giving it to her family (at least so far).


----------



## espola (Jul 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> My bestie had COVID and is now not feeling well.  Went to get a panel because the symptoms are weird and COVID-like but she's already had COVID.  Turns out she has OC-43....one of the original non-covid coronaviruses.  Looks like the COVID antibodies or T-cells prevented her from giving it to her family (at least so far).


I am always interested to read about new biological theories.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 9, 2021)

espola said:


> I am always interested to read about new biological theories.


Yes.  We know.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 9, 2021)

Ca says it will require all students to wear masks. Said it didn’t want some kids to be singled out if not vaccinated


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ca says it will require all students to wear masks. Said it didn’t want some kids to be singled out if not vaccinated


So, vaccinated or not, everyone on Zoom has to wear a mask?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 9, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> So, vaccinated or not, everyone on Zoom has to wear a mask?


Given la county’s reaction in the past, la county might very well be headed back to zoom. Cases in la co now top 1000 which would have been enough iirc to send us back to the next tier.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Given la county’s reaction in the past, la county might very well be headed back to zoom. Cases in la co now top 1000 which would have been enough iirc to send us back to the next tier.


How is that people are not asking the government to prove that the PCR test is finding genetic sequences of corona, that do not contain a time stamp,  and thus no proof of a real time infection or presence of the corona.  How do you know which of the 1K cases are real time if the PCR test wasn't designed to tell you that in the first place?  That's just a broken education system.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ca says it will require all students to wear masks. Said it didn’t want some kids to be singled out if not vaccinated


That is a BS statement/answer on their part. 

The science says it is TOTALLY fine for kids not to wear masks. CDC even says not required. 

And yet the union(s) and political leadership persist doing stupid things to kids.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

This is what CRT does to education. From our neighbors to the north. But don't think it stops at the border, we already see variations of this crap here in the US.

"Mathematics is often positioned as an objective and pure discipline. However, the content and the context in which it is taught, the mathematicians who are celebrated, and *the importance that is placed upon mathematics by society are subjective*. Mathematics *has been used to normalize racism and marginalization of non-Eurocentric mathematical knowledges,* and a decolonial, anti-racist approach to mathematics education makes visible its historical roots and social constructions. The Ontario Grade 9 *mathematics curriculum emphasizes the need to recognize and challenge systems of power and privilege, both inside and outside the classroom, in order to eliminate systemic barriers and to serve students belonging to groups that have been historically disadvantaged and underserved in mathematics education."*



			https://www.dcp.edu.gov.on.ca/en/curriculum/secondary-mathematics/courses/mth1w/course-intro
		


If only we focused on teaching skills in school instead of this type of crap. The idea that math has been used to normalize racism? That is straight up CRT crap. And that is the type of ideology they want in all aspects of education, etc. 

Just Say No


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is what CRT does to education. From our neighbors to the north. But don't think it stops at the border, we already see variations of this crap here in the US.
> 
> "Mathematics is often positioned as an objective and pure discipline. However, the content and the context in which it is taught, the mathematicians who are celebrated, and *the importance that is placed upon mathematics by society are subjective*. Mathematics *has been used to normalize racism and marginalization of non-Eurocentric mathematical knowledges,* and a decolonial, anti-racist approach to mathematics education makes visible its historical roots and social constructions. The Ontario Grade 9 *mathematics curriculum emphasizes the need to recognize and challenge systems of power and privilege, both inside and outside the classroom, in order to eliminate systemic barriers and to serve students belonging to groups that have been historically disadvantaged and underserved in mathematics education."*
> 
> ...


Have you figured out what CRT  is yet?  You were going to tell us.  Perhaps it slipped your mind.

And why are you suddenly worried about Canada?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is a BS statement/answer on their part.
> 
> The science says it is TOTALLY fine for kids not to wear masks. CDC even says not required.
> 
> And yet the union(s) and political leadership persist doing stupid things to kids.


Never underestimate the difficulty of changing false beliefs by facts.

Henry Rosovsky


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you figured out what CRT  is yet?  You were going to tell us.  Perhaps it slipped your mind.


Something NEW and theoretical?  Is that what hooked you on CRT?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is what CRT does to education. From our neighbors to the north. But don't think it stops at the border, we already see variations of this crap here in the US.
> 
> "Mathematics is often positioned as an objective and pure discipline. However, the content and the context in which it is taught, the mathematicians who are celebrated, and *the importance that is placed upon mathematics by society are subjective*. Mathematics *has been used to normalize racism and marginalization of non-Eurocentric mathematical knowledges,* and a decolonial, anti-racist approach to mathematics education makes visible its historical roots and social constructions. The Ontario Grade 9 *mathematics curriculum emphasizes the need to recognize and challenge systems of power and privilege, both inside and outside the classroom, in order to eliminate systemic barriers and to serve students belonging to groups that have been historically disadvantaged and underserved in mathematics education."*
> 
> ...


Race can be discussed as a social reality with a biological component. The consequences of that social reality have been very serious, however, and continue to be so. So are the consequences of the fallacies surrounding race. *Among these fallacies are that race was the basis of slavery, and that racism is the main reason for black-white differences in incomes and in all the other aspects of life that depend on income. Moreover, there is often an implicit assumption that racism and discrimination are so closely linked that they go up or down together, when in fact as we shall see, some times and places with more racism have been known to have less discrimination— and discrimination can exist without racism. Lurking in the background of some discussions of race is the question whether races differ in innate intelligence, a question that has generated fallacies among those on both sides of this issue.*

It has often been common to compare a given group, such as blacks in the United States, with the national average and regard the differences as showing a special peculiarity of the group being compared, or a special peculiarity of policies or attitudes towards that group. But either conclusion can be misleading when the national average itself is just an amalgamation of wide variations among many ethnic, regional and other groups. *While the black and white populations of the United States have long differed in various economic and social variables— in income, years of schooling, life expectancy, unemployment rates, crime rates, and scores on a variety of tests— so have other groups differed widely from one another and from the national average in countries around the world.

One of the most overlooked, but important, differences among groups are their ages. *The median age of black Americans is five years younger than the median age (35) of the American population as a whole, but blacks are by no means unique in having a median age different from the national average or from the ages of other groups. Among Asian Americans, the median age ranges from 43 for Japanese Americans to 24 for Americans of Cambodian ancestry to 16 for those of Hmong ancestry. Incomes are highly correlated with age, with young people usually beginning their working lives earning much less than older and more experienced workers. Therefore gross comparisons of incomes among racial or ethnic groups can be misleading when the median ages of groups can differ by a decade or even a quarter of a century. Nor are age differences the only differences among Asian Americans. While 61 percent of Japanese Americans were born in the United States, less than a third of the Asian Americans of Chinese, Filipino, Vietnamese, Korean, or Asian Indian ancestry were.5 Native-born citizens are obviously more familiar with the opportunities available in the society and better able to take advantage of those opportunities.

*Educational differences are likewise as great among American ethnic minorities as they are between minorities and the larger population. Although Hispanics have overtaken blacks numerically as part of the population, blacks still receive more doctorates than Hispanics. While the Asian American population is only a fraction of the size of either the black or the Hispanic population, Asian Americans receive more doctorates than Hispanics and nearly as many as blacks. In short, an even distribution of groups is by no means common, whether in age, education, or other characteristics.*

The United States is by no means unique in the nature or magnitude of economic or social differences among racial or ethnic groups. Income differences between the Chinese and Malay populations of Malaysia, for example, have long been greater than income differences between blacks and whites in the United States. So have economic differences between different tribes in Nigeria or between Asians and Africans in East Africa.

Various groups around the world have differed in everything from alcohol consumption per capita to IQs. Indeed, differences have been the norm and identical economic or social outcomes have been the exception. That is why singling out any given group for comparison with the national average can be misleading if it suggests that the situation of the group in question is peculiar, rather than being part of a worldwide pattern of wide variations from group to group. This is not to say that intergroup differences don't matter. Some of these differences matter greatly.
What are the reasons behind these disparities? Perhaps a more fundamental question might be: *What reason was there to expect these groups to be the same in the first place? *Geography, demography, history and culture have all differed among groups in countries around the world


_From the Great Thomas Sowell's Economic Facts and Fallacies_


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you figured out what CRT  is yet?  You were going to tell us.  Perhaps it slipped your mind.
> 
> And why are you suddenly worried about Canada?


There are basically 2 espolas on this board. 

On the actual soccer side you actually have a back and forth. You present ideas, clarify topics. 

On the more political side of the board you rarely have an idea. 

More than one person on this page has given the reasons what they don't like about CRT. You on the other hand refuse to articulate what you find so endearing. 

Try to be more like the espola who provides some useful insights on the soccer side of the forum, instead of being essentially on this side..."link please"


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> There are basically 2 espolas on this board.
> 
> On the actual soccer side you actually have a back and forth. You present ideas, clarify topics.
> 
> ...


I have an idea that you don't know what CRT is.  I  have given you plenty of opportunities to show that you do, but so far nothing.

Based on your latest excrement, I now suspect that you don't know that Ontario is in Canada.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

Australia having a harder time tapping down things this time despite the harsher-than-USA lockdowns.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1414497396801916933


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Australia having a harder time tapping down things this time despite the harsher-than-USA lockdowns.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1414497396801916933


"...thirty-four of them spending time in the community while infectious" doesn't sound like much of a lockdown.

Add to that the fact that Aust5ralia's full-vaccination rate is about 10% -- what did they )or you) think was going to happen?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> I have an idea that you don't know what CRT is.  I  have given you plenty of opportunities to show that you do, but so far nothing.
> 
> Based on your latest excrement, I now suspect that you don't know that Ontario is in Canada.


And that is your classic answer. You refuse to state your position and what you like about it. I and others have stated our positions and why. 

You are seemingly incapable of having a back and forth on this or most topics in this particular thread.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> "...thirty-four of them spending time in the community while infectious" doesn't sound like much of a lockdown.


People are evading the lockdown by leaving the house under the exercise exception. Nsw announced the step this morning that police will random stop to check Id to make sure you are not going more than 10km. People are also evading the lockdown with the dog walking exceptions.  They are considering restricting dogs to no more than immediately outside the premises which has some apartment dwellers complaining.


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> "...thirty-four of them spending time in the community while infectious" doesn't sound like much of a lockdown.
> 
> Add to that the fact that Aust5ralia's full-vaccination rate is about 10% -- what did they )or you) think was going to happen?


((Apologies for the typos, but my edit time ran out))


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> People are evading the lockdown by leaving the house under the exercise exception. Nsw announced the step this morning that police will random stop to check Id to make sure you are not going more than 10km. People are also evading the lockdown with the dog walking exceptions.  They are considering restricting dogs to no more than immediately outside the premises which has some apartment dwellers complaining.


So you agree with me.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> ((Apologies for the typos, but my edit time ran out))


I’m actually surprised it’s not more out of control…..australia has been successful to date with its measures and even dad4 is a fan despite the very draconian intrusions and repeated need to shut everything down.   Taiwan might just might still get things under control but it’s also requiring big efforts this time around.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> So you agree with me.


Not much to agree with as you refuse to state a position (hey why does that sound familiar) and only go round and round with your Schtick.


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Not much to agree with as you refuse to state a position (hey why does that sound familiar) and only go round and round with your Schtick.


Allow me to unlock your reading comprehension problem:   my statement "doesn't sound like much of a lockdown" was taking a position in opposition to your statement of "harsher-than-USA lockdowns".  I was pleased to see that you sort of agreed with me -- or is that over your head also?


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I’m actually surprised it’s not more out of control…..australia has been successful to date with its measures and even dad4 is a fan despite the very draconian intrusions and repeated need to shut everything down.   Taiwan might just might still get things under control but it’s also requiring big efforts this time around.


Meanwhile here in the USA, all we have to worry about is covid deniers and traditional anti-vaxxers, such as the attendees at the Southern Baptist Convention recently  --









						Southern Baptist Convention sparks small COVID-19 cluster in Nashville
					

The Southern Baptist Convention gathering was the first large-scale conference in Nashville since it lifted coronavirus restrictions on gatherings.



					www.tennessean.com
				




It's still too soon to tell about the impact of the denial and resistance exhibited among the speakers at the Dallas CPAC (which I have seen called "Cray-cray PAC" in several places online today).


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Not much to agree with as you refuse to state a position (hey why does that sound familiar) and only go round and round with your Schtick.


Just to help with your education -- that is pure ad hominem.  Maybe you didn't know that.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This is what CRT does to education. From our neighbors to the north. But don't think it stops at the border, we already see variations of this crap here in the US.
> 
> "Mathematics is often positioned as an objective and pure discipline. However, the content and the context in which it is taught, the mathematicians who are celebrated, and *the importance that is placed upon mathematics by society are subjective*. Mathematics *has been used to normalize racism and marginalization of non-Eurocentric mathematical knowledges,* and a decolonial, anti-racist approach to mathematics education makes visible its historical roots and social constructions. The Ontario Grade 9 *mathematics curriculum emphasizes the need to recognize and challenge systems of power and privilege, both inside and outside the classroom, in order to eliminate systemic barriers and to serve students belonging to groups that have been historically disadvantaged and underserved in mathematics education."*
> 
> ...


That principle seems weird to me also, but I don't know how Mathematics is taught north of the border. That said, the other *seven *principles seem to align perfectly with your preferred focus, i.e. "on teaching skills in school". The principles aren't ranked, so I'd assume they have equal rank. Given there are seven others, I'd expect this isn't the main focus.

Another phrase in the article also struck me as odd, i.e. (*my bold*) "Research indicates that there are groups of students (_*for example, Indigenous students, Black students, students experiencing homelessness, students living in poverty, students with LGBTQ+ identities, and students with special education needs and disabilities*_) who continue to experience systemic barriers to accessing high-level instruction in and support with learning mathematics."

If the examples were just _*students experiencing homelessness, students living in poverty, and students with special education needs and disabilities*_, then I'd get it. There's no link to the research, so no way of telling why the other 3 examples needed specific highlighting, as against impacted Indigenous, Black & LGBTQ+ students being already included in the aforementioned groups.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Allow me to unlock your reading comprehension problem:   my statement "doesn't sound like much of a lockdown" was taking a position in opposition to your statement of "harsher-than-USA lockdowns".  I was pleased to see that you sort of agreed with me -- or is that over your head also?


"doesn't sound like much of a lockdown" isn't a position on anything.   I took it as your usual flippant observation (which you laughably call "fact checking").  But if you are actually going to argue the Australian lockdowns were less severe than the US ones, then please do tell, because dad 4 seems to have admired the Australian lockdowned and bemoaned why we didn't have them here.  The Australian lockdowns have involved, among other things, restrictions on travel between the provinces and the suppression of protests (both BLM and antilockdown ones).


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

whatithink said:


> That principle seems weird to me also, but I don't know how Mathematics is taught north of the border.


Well actually just a few weeks ago we were talking about this in relation to math being taught in and around the SF area. They want to teach math with equity in mind, racism, etc. All things that really have nothing to do with teaching mathematics. 

So my example is not something that is just seen outside of the US. You are seeing the focus change in a variety of areas around the US...and our kids will be worse off for it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

And here the New Yorker gets around to admitting what we have known for a long time. Kids have no risk.

The problem we had and still have is:

"The country’s whole risk profile has changed. But our intuitions about risk tolerance haven’t — at least not yet."

Which is why you get the idiocy of telling kids to wear masks this coming school year. I suspect it won't just be masks either. Bet on a large number of safety policies put in places in school, that have nothing to do with actual safety but will make things more restrictive on kids and activities.



			https://archive.ph/149zw


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well actually just a few weeks ago we were talking about this in relation to math being taught in and around the SF area. They want to teach math with equity in mind, racism, etc. All things that really have nothing to do with teaching mathematics.
> 
> So my example is not something that is just seen outside of the US. You are seeing the focus change in a variety of areas around the US...and our kids will be worse off for it.


I didn't see that. I don't understand how you make Math racist. I could see how you could teach a "History of Mathematics" class and make that racist, but that doesn't seem to be the thrust of the linked piece. Strangely, there is no substance or attempt to provide substance or evidence by what's meant, so I'm none the wiser. 

I can see how under privileged students can be impacted negatively in education, but that applies to any under privileged student irrespective of race, creed, preference etc. Education policy makers should obviously make every effort to "rectify" this.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

I always get a chuckle when I come across this. Yes I know France has a long distinguished military history. That said here is your chuckle of the day. 



Gallic Wars - Lost. In a war whose ending foreshadows the next 2000 years of French history, France is conquered by of all things, an Italian.
Hundred Years War - Mostly lost, saved at last by female schizophrenic who inadvertently creates The First Rule of French Warfare; "France's armies are victorious only when not led by a Frenchman."
Italian Wars - Lost. France becomes the first and only country to ever lose two wars when fighting Italians.
Wars of Religion - France goes 0-5-4 against the Huguenots
Thirty Years War - France is technically not a participant, but manages to get invaded anyway. Claims a tie on the basis that eventually the other participants started ignoring her.
War of Devolution - Tied. Frenchmen take to wearing red flowerpots as chapeaux.
The Dutch War - Tied
War of the Augsburg League/King William's War/French and Indian War - Lost, but claimed as a tie. Three ties in a row induces deluded Frogophiles the world over to label the period as the height of French military power.
War of the Spanish Succession - Lost. The War also gave the French their first taste of a Marlborough, which they have loved every since.
American Revolution - In a move that will become quite familiar to future Americans, France claims a win even though the English colonists saw far more action. This is later known as "de Gaulle Syndrome", and leads to the Second Rule of French Warfare; " France only wins when America does most of the fighting."
French Revolution - Won, primarily due the fact that the opponent was also French.
The Napoleonic Wars - Lost. Temporary victories (remember the First Rule!) due to leadership of a Corsican, who ended up being no match for a British footwear designer.
The Franco-Prussian War - Lost. Germany first plays the role of drunk Frat boy to France's ugly girl home alone on a Saturday night.
World War I - Tied and on the way to losing, France is saved by the United States. Thousands of French women find out what it's like to not only sleep with a winner, but one who doesn't call her "Fraulein." Sadly, widespread use of condoms by American forces forestalls any improvement in the French bloodline.
World War II - Lost. Conquered French liberated by the United States and Britain just as they finish learning the Horst Wessel Song.
War in Indochina - Lost. French forces plead sickness, take to bed with the Dien Bien Flu.
Algerian Rebellion - Lost. Loss marks the first defeat of a western army by a Non-Turkic Muslim force since the Crusades, and produces the First Rule of Muslim Warfare; "We can always beat the French." This rule is identical to the First Rules of the Italians, Russians, Germans, English, Dutch, Spanish, Vietnamese and Esquimaux.
War on Terrorism - France, keeping in mind its recent history, surrenders to Germans and Muslims just to be safe. Attempts to surrender to Vietnamese ambassador fail after he takes refuge in a McDonald's.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

This is back to the bad news.

"EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak emailed Anthony Fauci in 2017 outlining his collaborative research on a “bat-origin coronavirus” with the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s Shi Zhengli, which included *“doing assays to find out if it can infect human cells in the lab*.”









						Stunning Daszak/Fauci Emails Reveal Non-Zoonotic Coronavirus and Attempts to Infect Human Cells.
					

EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak emailed Anthony Fauci in 2017 outlining his collaborative research on a "bat-origin coronavirus" with the Wuhan Institute of Virology's Shi Zhengli, which included "doing assays to find out if it can infect human cells in the lab."




					thenationalpulse.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I can see how under privileged students can be impacted negatively in education, but that applies to any under privileged student irrespective of race,


This certainly does happen.

It seems to be a lack of funding
A lack of enforcement of standards
A lack of any consequences, etc.

All of which means kids are stuck in failing schools and leave without an education which of course leads to poor outcomes in life.

Take Baltimore for example. It isn't racism holding the kids back. And yet despite the terrible performance of their public schools, they are on board with CRT. That isn't going to help those poor kids get an education. It will just make things even worse. 


"Tiffany France, one of the mothers profiled in the Project Baltimore investigation, said she thought her 17-year-old son would be receiving his diploma in June but learned that *after four years of attending Augusta Fells, her son is being moved back to the ninth grade*.

According to transcripts, France's son *passed only three classes in his four years of high school, earning a 0.13 grade point average*. What's worse is that *her son's GPA puts him near the top half of this class. He was also late or absent to school 359 days."*


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And here the New Yorker gets around to admitting what we have known for a long time. Kids have no risk.
> 
> The problem we had and still have is:
> 
> ...


Yup, cases are just beginning to trend upward and their opening bid is masks on kids, even if they are vaccinated.  We should start a pool for what California implements when it is on the top of the curve and in full panic meltdown.  

The wave is likely to be as bad as this, even though deaths and hospitalizations will still not be anywhere near as bad as prior waves....










						United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yup, cases are just beginning to trend upward and their opening bid is masks on kids, even if they are vaccinated.  We should start a pool for what California implements when it is on the top of the curve and in full panic meltdown.
> 
> The wave is likely to be as bad as this, even though deaths and hospitalizations will still not be anywhere near as bad as prior waves....
> 
> ...


Yep they keep peddling fear. 

A look at UK shows the vaccines work. It as you state it shows that cases are not translating into deaths/hospitalizations. 

A normal person would look at the data and say hey this is great news. Carry on. And yet we hear the opposite. Be worried about the Delta variant, etc. 

And the pool may be interesting. CA is going to create a lot of bad rules if history is any guide.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This certainly does happen.
> 
> It seems to be a lack of funding
> A lack of enforcement of standards
> ...


Moving a 17 year old back to 9th grade in an environment that has already failed him after 4 years wouldn't bode well IMV.

I agree that there should be standards with funding available to ensure they should be achievable, and then regular monitoring to measure and consequences up and down the hierarchy, i.e. not just consequences for a teacher or school, but also up the leadership chain through and including the politicians.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> Meanwhile here in the USA, all we have to worry about is covid deniers and traditional anti-vaxxers, such as the attendees at the Southern Baptist Convention recently  --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So you agree with me on denial and resistance.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep they keep peddling fear.
> 
> A look at UK shows the vaccines work. It as you state it shows that cases are not translating into deaths/hospitalizations.
> 
> ...


Well, I'm already banking that it will be unlikely my colleagues and I will have the full office reopening this fall.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

This isn't really a surprise.....some of us have been saying this was coming for a while. That said G-B is a very rare side effect of many vaccines we use and can also occur after natural illness.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/12/johnson-and-johnson-warning/


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep they keep peddling fear.
> 
> A look at UK shows the vaccines work. It as you state it shows that cases are not translating into deaths/hospitalizations.
> 
> ...


How do we know the vaccine really works when there was a 98% survival rate pre-vaccine?  The same has been true for previous SARS without vaccines.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

Perhaps the biggest fallacy about the history of racial and ethnic minorities is that the passage of time reduces the hostility and discrimination they face. In many countries, minorities have faced greater hostility and discrimination in a later period than in earlier periods. In other countries, the reverse has been true. But the passage of time alone does not automatically produce either result.......... Within an even shorter span of time, the island nation of Sri Lanka, off the coast of India, went from being a country whose good relations between majority and minority had become a model for intergroup harmony to one with a decades-long civil war taking tens of thousands of lives. During the first half of the twentieth century, there was not a single riot between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority. But, during the second half of that century, there were many such riots, marked by unspeakable atrocities, and ultimately degenerating into a civil war that was still not completely ended as the twenty-first century dawned.

Other such examples could be found in many countries and in many periods of history. In Bohemia, Germans and Czechs co-existed peacefully for centuries, until the rise of Czech nationalism, climaxed by the creation of the new nation of Czechoslovakia after the First World War, led to discrimination against Germans and then to a German backlash that led ultimately to the Munich crisis of 1938, when the Czechs were forced to relinquish the predominantly German Sudetenland to Nazi Germany. After Germany later took over all of Czechoslovakia, the Germans in that country then joined in the Nazis' persecution of Czechs. After the defeat of Germany in World War II, Germans in Czechoslovakia were expelled by the millions, often under brutal conditions that led to many deaths.

*Such retrogressions in intergroup relations were not unknown in the United States, though not usually to such extremes. *The predominantly German Jewish population of the United States was far better assimilated and accepted before the arrival of millions of unassimilated Eastern European Jews in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries led to a social backlash against all Jews that resulted in restrictions against Jews in places where such restrictions had not existed before. Black Americans, meanwhile, were far better accepted in Northern cities at the end of the nineteenth century than they would be in the first half of the twentieth century, after massive migrations of less assimilated Southern blacks caused a similar backlash that created new restrictions against all blacks. Northern cities in which blacks had lived largely dispersed among whites saw in the early twentieth century the rigid residential segregation patterns that would create the black ghettoes which quickly became the norm.

It would be as fallacious to depict racial retrogression as an inevitable result of the passage of time as to depict racial progress as something happening automatically over time. *Much racial progress occurred in the second half of the twentieth century in the United States, especially for blacks. Since this was not something that happened automatically, it is important to understand the causes and the timing. It is especially important to scrutinize the evidence because many individuals and *organizations have a vested interest in claiming credit for progress, and incessantly repeated claims can sometimes be mistaken for facts.

Progress and retrogression are not always separated in different eras. There can be much progress in some respects during the same time when there is retrogression in other respects. That was especially true among black Americans in the second half of the twentieth century.

*Before the landmark Supreme Court decision in Brown v. Board of Education in 1954, the racial segregation of schools was required in all the Southern states that had formed the Confederacy, as well as in Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma, and the District of Columbia— and racial segregation of the schools was permitted in Wyoming, Arizona, and New Mexico. All such laws were nullified by the Supreme Court decision and, over the next decades, the practice of racial segregation in the schools was dismantled. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 outlawed racial segregation in both public and private enterprises and institutions, and forbade employment discrimination as well. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 outlawed practices which had disenfranchised black voters in the South and the 1970s saw "affirmative action" take on the meaning of preferential hiring of minority workers.

These major legal landmarks of the civil rights revolution have often been credited with the economic and political advances of the black population.* *Certainly the Voting Rights Act was responsible for a huge increase in black voting in the South and the subsequent skyrocketing of the number of black elected officials throughout the region.* *But history tells a very different story as regards the economic advancement of blacks.*

The percentage of black families with incomes below the poverty line fell most sharply between 1940 and 1960, going from 87 percent to 47 percent over that span, before either the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and well before the 1970s, when "affirmative action" evolved into numerical "goals" or "quotas." While the downward trend in poverty continued, the pace of that decline did not accelerate after these legal landmarks but in fact slackened. The poverty rate declined from 47 percent to 30 percent during the decade of the 1960s and then only from 30 percent to 29 percent between 1970 and 1980. *However, much credit has been claimed for the civil rights laws of the 1960s or the War on Poverty *programs of that same decade, the hard facts show that blacks' rise out of poverty was more dramatic before any of these government actions got under way.

There was a similar historical trend as regards the rise of blacks into professional, managerial, and other high-level occupations. *The number of blacks in white collar occupations, managerial and administrative occupations doubled between 1940 and 1960, and nearly doubled in professional occupations. Meanwhile, the number of blacks who were farm workers in 1960 was only one-fourth of the number who were in 1940. These favorable trends continued after 1960 but did not originate in the 1960s. *As regards the group preferences and quotas— "affirmative action"— which began in the 1970s, they produced little or no effect on the relative sizes of black and white incomes. The median black household income was 60.9 percent of the median white household income in 1970— and never rose above that, or as high as that, throughout the decade of the 1970s. As of 1980, median black household income was 57.6 percent of median white household income.

*The facts are clear but the fallacies persist that it was the civil rights laws, the "war on poverty" programs of the 1960s, and affirmative action which caused the rise of blacks out of poverty and their ascent into middle class occupations.*


The above from Thomas Sowell reminds me of how much credit is given to NPI's and vaccines in the SCAMDEMIC. The fallacy of NPI's and vaccines persist despite hard historical data to the contrary.


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well actually just a few weeks ago we were talking about this in relation to math being taught in and around the SF area. They want to teach math with equity in mind, racism, etc. All things that really have nothing to do with teaching mathematics.
> 
> So my example is not something that is just seen outside of the US. You are seeing the focus change in a variety of areas around the US...and our kids will be worse off for it.


You are very critical of CRT, but you have shown no knowledge of what it is.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> You are very critical of CRT, but you have shown no knowledge of what it is.


Or where, at what level, it is actually taught/discussed in ernest.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yep they keep peddling fear.
> 
> A look at UK shows the vaccines work. It as you state it shows that cases are not translating into deaths/hospitalizations.
> 
> ...


Sure, the vaccines work.  It’s very good news for those of us who live in areas where people actually got their shots.

If you don’t live in Vermont, Hawaii, or SF, expect to hear more about Delta.  A 50% vax rate leaves more than enough potential carriers for you to have an outbreak.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sure, the vaccines work.  It’s very good news for those of us who live in areas where people actually got their shots.
> 
> If you don’t live in Vermont, Hawaii, or SF, expect to hear more about Delta.  A 50% vax rate leaves more than enough potential carriers for you to have an outbreak.


The key is that nationwide the people at risk...ie 65 and above are vaccinated at 80% and higher (I believe high 80s). Those were the people at risk and that is the group that is vaccinated at a very high level. You had 80% or more of the deaths in this age range, and now they are covered. 

Game over so to speak.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sure, the vaccines work.  It’s very good news for those of us who live in areas where people actually got their shots.
> 
> If you don’t live in Vermont, Hawaii, or SF, expect to hear more about Delta.  A 50% vax rate leaves more than enough potential carriers for you to have an outbreak.


"Sure, the vaccines work.  It's very good news for those of us who live in areas where people actually got their shots.  It's very good news for those of us who actually got our shots and are old enough to be at risk. If you don’t live in Vermont, Hawaii, or SF, expect to hear more about Delta.  A 50% vax rate leaves more than enough potential carriers for you to have an outbreak. you haven't got your shot you should get one so you can resume living a normal life" There....FIFY.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

Association Between Vaccination With BNT162b2 and Incidence of Symptomatic and Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among Health Care Workers - PubMed
					

Among health care workers at a single center in Tel Aviv, Israel, receipt of the BNT162b2 vaccine compared with no vaccine was associated with a significantly lower incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection more than 7 days after the second dose. Findings are limited by the...




					pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> You are very critical of CRT, but you have shown no knowledge of what it is.





Hüsker Dü said:


> Or where, at what level, it is actually taught/discussed in ernest.





dad4 said:


> Sure, the vaccines work.  It’s very good news for those of us who live in areas where people actually got their shots.
> 
> If you don’t live in Vermont, Hawaii, or SF, expect to hear more about Delta.  A 50% vax rate leaves more than enough potential carriers for you to have an outbreak.


Well there you have it folks.

Never underestimate the difficulty of changing false beliefs by facts.

Henry Rosovsky


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Or where, at what level, it is actually taught/discussed in ernest.


This might be above you Du

*In addition to its own evils during its own time, slavery has generated fallacies that endure into our time, confusing many issues today.* The *distinguished historian Daniel J. Boorstin said something that was well known to many scholars, but utterly unknown to many among the general public, when he pointed out that, with the mass transportation of Africans in bondage to the Western Hemisphere, "Now for the first time in Western history, the status of slave coincided with a difference of race."

For centuries before, Europeans had enslaved other Europeans, Asians had enslaved other Asians and Africans had enslaved other Africans. Only in the modern era was there both the wealth and the technology to organize the mass transportation of people across an ocean, either as slaves or as free immigrants. *Nor were Europeans the only ones to transport masses of enslaved human beings from one continent to another. *North Africa's Barbary Coast pirates alone captured and enslaved at least a million Europeans from 1500 to 1800, carrying more Europeans into bondage in North Africa than there were Africans brought in bondage to the United States and the American colonies from which it was formed.* *Moreover, Europeans were still being bought and sold in the slave markets of the Islamic world, decades after blacks were freed in the United States*.

*Slavery was a virtually universal institution in countries around the world and for thousands of years of recorded history.* Indeed, archaeological evidence suggests that human beings learned to enslave other human beings before they learned to write. *One of the many fallacies about slavery— that it was based on race— is sustained by the simple but pervasive practice of focussing exclusively on the enslavement of Africans by Europeans, as if this were something unique, rather than part of a much larger worldwide human tragedy. Racism grew out of African slavery, especially in the United States, but slavery preceded racism by thousands of years. Europeans enslaved other Europeans for centuries before the first African was brought in bondage to the Western Hemisphere.

The brutal reality is that vulnerable people were usually taken advantage of wherever it was feasible to take advantage of them, regardless of what race or color they were.* The rise of nation states put armies and navies around some people but it was not equally possible to establish nation states in all parts of the world, partly because of geography. Where large populations had no army or navy to protect them, they fell prey to enslavers, whether in Africa, Asia or along unguarded stretches of European coastlines where Barbary pirates made raids, usually around the Mediterranean but sometimes as far away as England or Iceland. *The enormous concentration of writings and of the media in general on slavery in the Western Hemisphere, or in the United States in particular, creates a false picture which makes it difficult to understand even the history of slavery in the United States.*

While slavery was readily accepted as a fact of life all around the world for centuries on end, there was never a time when slavery could get that kind of universal acceptance in the United States, founded on a principle of freedom, with which slavery was in such obvious and irreconcilable contradiction. *Slavery was under ideological attack from the first draft of the Declaration of Independence and a number of Northern states banned slavery in the years immediately following independence. Even in the South, the ideology of freedom was not wholly without effect, as tens of thousands of slaves were voluntarily set free after Americans gained their own freedom from England.

Most Southern slaveowners, however, were determined to hold on to their slaves and, for that, some defense was necessary against the ideology of freedom and the widespread criticisms of slavery that were its corollary. Racism became that defense. Such a defense was unnecessary in unfree societies, such as that of Brazil, which imported more slaves than the United States but developed no such virulent levels of racism as that of the American South. Outside Western civilization, no defense of slavery was necessary, as non-Western societies saw nothing wrong with it. Nor was there any serious challenge to slavery in Western civilization prior to the eighteenth century.

Racism became a justification of slavery in a society where it could not be justified otherwise— and centuries of racism did not suddenly vanish with the abolition of the slavery that gave rise to it. But the direction of causation was the direct opposite of what is assumed by those who depict the enslavement of Africans as being a result of racism. Nevertheless, racism became one of the enduring legacies of slavery. How much of it continues to endure and in what strength today is something that can be examined and debated. But many other things that are considered to be legacies of slavery can be tested empirically, rather than being accepted as foregone conclusions.*
Mr. Sowell, _Economic Facts and Fallacies_


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sure, the vaccines work.  It’s very good news for those of us who live in areas where people actually got their shots.
> 
> If you don’t live in Vermont, Hawaii, or SF, expect to hear more about Delta.  A 50% vax rate leaves more than enough potential carriers for you to have an outbreak.


Nonsense as usual.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> "Sure, the vaccines work.  It's very good news for those of us who live in areas where people actually got their shots.  It's very good news for those of us who actually got our shots and are old enough to be at risk. If you don’t live in Vermont, Hawaii, or SF, expect to hear more about Delta.  A 50% vax rate leaves more than enough potential carriers for you to have an outbreak. you haven't got your shot you should get one so you can resume living a normal life" There....FIFY.


You‘re still having trouble with the germ theory of disease. 

Vaccines do protect the individual, as you noted.   Vaccines also decrease overall transmission, and thereby reduce overall viral load in the community.  I was referring to the second effect.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Association Between Vaccination With BNT162b2 and Incidence of Symptomatic and Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among Health Care Workers - PubMed
> 
> 
> Among health care workers at a single center in Tel Aviv, Israel, receipt of the BNT162b2 vaccine compared with no vaccine was associated with a significantly lower incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection more than 7 days after the second dose. Findings are limited by the...
> ...


If pre-vax survival rate is 98%, how do they know that any post-vax numbers aren't due to natural immunity?  Especially in hospital workers with daily exposure to corona and other respiratory diseases over many years.


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Sure, the vaccines work.  It’s very good news for those of us who live in areas where people actually got their shots.
> 
> If you don’t live in Vermont, Hawaii, or SF, expect to hear more about Delta.  A 50% vax rate leaves more than enough potential carriers for you to have an outbreak.


CNN crawl bar said as I was walking by my wife's TV that Arkansas is now scrambling for vaccine doses as they have become a covid hotpot.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You‘re still having trouble with the germ theory of disease.
> 
> Vaccines do protect the individual, as you noted.   Vaccines also decrease overall transmission, and thereby reduce overall viral load in the community.  I was referring to the second effect.


The 2ndary effect really doesn't matter though if you get vaccinated and vaccines decouple hospitalizations/death from cases.  Better question is why exactly are you still concerned with cases?  Do you get this worked up every bad flu season, about RSV or about adenovirus?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> If pre-vax survival rate is 98%, how do they know that any post-vax numbers aren't due to natural immunity?  Especially in hospital workers with daily exposure to corona and other respiratory diseases over many years.



They can be.  The problem with natural immunity though is that we know it produces a wide ranging antibody response (which is likely linked with how much immunity you have but it may not be the entire story).  For example, my antibody response was not very robust at all.  My son's from an average level had begun to decrease a year out.  My bestie's are over 10 still 6 months out.  

The same effect happens with the shot.  For some people, 1 shot may be enough....but for many it's not enough, particularly against a mutating variant, to keep them from getting really ill again.  J&J could have been a 2 shot protocol....they however only submitted the results for a 1 shot protocol.  Pfizer could have submitted for 1 shot...they got approval though for the 2 shot protocol.

From a study I previously posted in the UK, natural immunity in some cases may be enough but in the general population it seems to be the equivalent of 1 shot, particularly against the variants.  The only way really around this is to constantly test everyone's antibody levels, which they are reluctant to do, in part because as some of us having been arguing about t cells, antibodies may only be part of the story.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You‘re still having trouble with the germ theory of disease.
> 
> Vaccines do protect the individual, as you noted.   Vaccines also decrease overall transmission, and thereby reduce overall viral load in the community.  I was referring to the second effect.


You‘re still having trouble with quacknowledging virus history and the immune system that deals with the actual virus and disease.  The fake vaccines are simply hitching a ride on the immune system.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They can be.  The problem with natural immunity though is that we know it produces a wide ranging antibody response (which is likely linked with how much immunity you have but it may not be the entire story).  For example, my antibody response was not very robust at all.  My son's from an average level had begun to decrease a year out.  My bestie's are over 10 still 6 months out.
> 
> The same effect happens with the shot.  For some people, 1 shot may be enough....but for many it's not enough, particularly against a mutating variant, to keep them from getting really ill again.  J&J could have been a 2 shot protocol....they however only submitted the results for a 1 shot protocol.  Pfizer could have submitted for 1 shot...they got approval though for the 2 shot protocol.
> 
> From a study I previously posted in the UK, natural immunity in some cases may be enough but in the general population it seems to be the equivalent of 1 shot, particularly against the variants.  The only way really around this is to constantly test everyone's antibody levels, which they are reluctant to do, in part because as some of us having been arguing about t cells, antibodies may only be part of the story.


But what you have stated above has been happening for decades.  And started trending the same way last May.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> CNN crawl bar said as I was walking by my wife's TV that Arkansas is now scrambling for vaccine doses as they have become a covid hotpot.


0.0003666


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> But what you have stated above has been happening for decades.  And started trending the same way last May.


true that.


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11102


A shot that makes you smart?  You the posterboy?


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 12, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> CA is going to create a lot of bad rules if history is any guide.


Ha! True.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 12, 2021)

espola said:


> CNN crawl bar said as I was walking by my wife's TV that Arkansas is now scrambling for vaccine doses as they have become a covid hotpot.


The airport is a burgeoning hot spot from what I hear. Lockdowns here we come.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> You‘re still having trouble with quacknowledging virus history and the immune system that deals with the actual virus and disease.  The fake vaccines are simply hitching a ride on the immune system.


Hitching a ride on the immune system?  Well, yes.  That's a pretty good description of all vaccines.

How did you think vaccines work?


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> This might be above you Du
> 
> *In addition to its own evils during its own time, slavery has generated fallacies that endure into our time, confusing many issues today.* The *distinguished historian Daniel J. Boorstin said something that was well known to many scholars, but utterly unknown to many among the general public, when he pointed out that, with the mass transportation of Africans in bondage to the Western Hemisphere, "Now for the first time in Western history, the status of slave coincided with a difference of race."
> 
> ...


Apart from the Romans (European) obviously, the Byzantine Empire, the Mongol hordes took slaves east, the Arabs were taking African slaves for centuries before the Europeans etc. 

BTW, you should educate yourself on racism in Brazil, that's a very poor example in your piece. 

So what's the purpose of the piece you posted. Slavery has always existed and was a fact of life, so that's ok? Racism didn't exist and was only created to justify slavery, so racism is ok?

Or maybe that people have been despicable for forever, so it's ok to continue being despicable now? 

Heaven forbid we should attempt to evolve as a society. There's a litany of government (State & Federal) laws which were in place and were slowly repealed in the US which were clearly racist, e.g. it wasn't until 1967 when the Supreme court "authorized" inter racial marriage. Most states allowed it at that point, but a case made it all the way to the Supreme court in 1967 on it. It was still on one state's statute books until 2000 when it was finally overturned.

I don't believe in indoctrination, one way or the other. I do believe in facts, actual hard facts. There is a lot of US history to be proud of and there is also a lot to be ashamed of. There is way more good than bad, but there should be no fear at looking at the latter.

Why is everyone so fucking afraid (masked in anger and hatred and vitriol for the "other" side)? We're all Americans, better together etc. yada yada


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Hitching a ride on the immune system?  Well, yes.  That's a pretty good description of all vaccines.
> 
> How did you think vaccines work?


Not very well.  Obviously.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

whatithink said:


> BTW, you should educate yourself on racism in Brazil, that's a very poor example in your piece.


Racism is in your head.  Discrimination is the overt act that we should be fighting.  Regardless of where it happens.  Why is it a poor piece?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Apart from the Romans (European) obviously, the Byzantine Empire, the Mongol hordes took slaves east, the Arabs were taking African slaves for centuries before the Europeans etc.
> 
> BTW, you should educate yourself on racism in Brazil, that's a very poor example in your piece.
> 
> ...


I too believe in hard facts.  This is not an indoc..  These are facts that you claim you believe in.  And those facts clearly show that blacks nor whites needed government to intervene in some of the ways that they did:

Perhaps the biggest fallacy about the history of racial and ethnic minorities is that the passage of time reduces the hostility and discrimination they face. In many countries, minorities have faced greater hostility and discrimination in a later period than in earlier periods. In other countries, the reverse has been true. But the passage of time alone does not automatically produce either result.......... Within an even shorter span of time, the island nation of Sri Lanka, off the coast of India, went from being a country whose good relations between majority and minority had become a model for intergroup harmony to one with a decades-long civil war taking tens of thousands of lives. During the first half of the twentieth century, there was not a single riot between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority. But, during the second half of that century, there were many such riots, marked by unspeakable atrocities, and ultimately degenerating into a civil war that was still not completely ended as the twenty-first century dawned.

Other such examples could be found in many countries and in many periods of history. In Bohemia, Germans and Czechs co-existed peacefully for centuries, until the rise of Czech nationalism, climaxed by the creation of the new nation of Czechoslovakia after the First World War, led to discrimination against Germans and then to a German backlash that led ultimately to the Munich crisis of 1938, when the Czechs were forced to relinquish the predominantly German Sudetenland to Nazi Germany. After Germany later took over all of Czechoslovakia, the Germans in that country then joined in the Nazis' persecution of Czechs. After the defeat of Germany in World War II, Germans in Czechoslovakia were expelled by the millions, often under brutal conditions that led to many deaths.

*Such retrogressions in intergroup relations were not unknown in the United States, though not usually to such extremes. *The predominantly German Jewish population of the United States was far better assimilated and accepted before the arrival of millions of unassimilated Eastern European Jews in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries led to a social backlash against all Jews that resulted in restrictions against Jews in places where such restrictions had not existed before. Black Americans, meanwhile, were far better accepted in Northern cities at the end of the nineteenth century than they would be in the first half of the twentieth century, after massive migrations of less assimilated Southern blacks caused a similar backlash that created new restrictions against all blacks. Northern cities in which blacks had lived largely dispersed among whites saw in the early twentieth century the rigid residential segregation patterns that would create the black ghettoes which quickly became the norm.

It would be as fallacious to depict racial retrogression as an inevitable result of the passage of time as to depict racial progress as something happening automatically over time. *Much racial progress occurred in the second half of the twentieth century in the United States, especially for blacks. Since this was not something that happened automatically, it is important to understand the causes and the timing. It is especially important to scrutinize the evidence because many individuals and *organizations have a vested interest in claiming credit for progress, and incessantly repeated claims can sometimes be mistaken for facts.

Progress and retrogression are not always separated in different eras. There can be much progress in some respects during the same time when there is retrogression in other respects. That was especially true among black Americans in the second half of the twentieth century.

*Before the landmark Supreme Court decision in Brown v. Board of Education in 1954, the racial segregation of schools was required in all the Southern states that had formed the Confederacy, as well as in Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma, and the District of Columbia— and racial segregation of the schools was permitted in Wyoming, Arizona, and New Mexico. All such laws were nullified by the Supreme Court decision and, over the next decades, the practice of racial segregation in the schools was dismantled. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 outlawed racial segregation in both public and private enterprises and institutions, and forbade employment discrimination as well. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 outlawed practices which had disenfranchised black voters in the South and the 1970s saw "affirmative action" take on the meaning of preferential hiring of minority workers.

These major legal landmarks of the civil rights revolution have often been credited with the economic and political advances of the black population.* *Certainly the Voting Rights Act was responsible for a huge increase in black voting in the South and the subsequent skyrocketing of the number of black elected officials throughout the region.* *But history tells a very different story as regards the economic advancement of blacks.*

The percentage of black families with incomes below the poverty line fell most sharply between 1940 and 1960, going from 87 percent to 47 percent over that span, before either the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and well before the 1970s, when "affirmative action" evolved into numerical "goals" or "quotas." While the downward trend in poverty continued, the pace of that decline did not accelerate after these legal landmarks but in fact slackened. The poverty rate declined from 47 percent to 30 percent during the decade of the 1960s and then only from 30 percent to 29 percent between 1970 and 1980. *However, much credit has been claimed for the civil rights laws of the 1960s or the War on Poverty *programs of that same decade, the hard facts show that blacks' rise out of poverty was more dramatic before any of these government actions got under way.

There was a similar historical trend as regards the rise of blacks into professional, managerial, and other high-level occupations. *The number of blacks in white collar occupations, managerial and administrative occupations doubled between 1940 and 1960, and nearly doubled in professional occupations. Meanwhile, the number of blacks who were farm workers in 1960 was only one-fourth of the number who were in 1940. These favorable trends continued after 1960 but did not originate in the 1960s. *As regards the group preferences and quotas— "affirmative action"— which began in the 1970s, they produced little or no effect on the relative sizes of black and white incomes. The median black household income was 60.9 percent of the median white household income in 1970— and never rose above that, or as high as that, throughout the decade of the 1970s. As of 1980, median black household income was 57.6 percent of median white household income.

*The facts are clear but the fallacies persist that it was the civil rights laws, the "war on poverty" programs of the 1960s, and affirmative action which caused the rise of blacks out of poverty and their ascent into middle class occupations.*


The above from Thomas Sowell reminds me of how much credit is given to NPI's and vaccines in the SCAMDEMIC. The fallacy of NPI's and vaccines persist despite hard historical data to the contrary.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I don't believe in indoctrination, one way or the other. I do believe in facts, actual hard facts. There is a lot of US history to be proud of and there is also a lot to be ashamed of. There is way more good than bad, but there should be no fear at looking at the latter.


My entire post was looking at the latter.  Are you denying that we have evolved as a nation?


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Racism is in your head.  Discrimination is the overt act that we should be fighting.  Regardless of where it happens.  Why is it a poor piece?


I probably agree its more about discrimination and removing discrimination at every level, for whatever reason and race becomes moot. I said Brazil was a poor example, btw, not that its a poor piece, although I do think it has plenty of discrepancies, some of which I showed.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> My entire post was looking at the latter.  Are you denying that we have evolved as a nation?


Yes, we've evolved, at times being pulled screaming in the right direction. Its surely bizarre and somewhat indicative that the civil rights act "lost the south" for the Ds and handed it to the Rs. If we had evolved, it would have been a slam dunk and apolitical.

When politics is all about culture wars, we haven't evolved nearly as much as we'd like to think we have. But then again, we are not alone in that regard.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Perhaps the biggest fallacy about the history of racial and ethnic minorities is that the passage of time reduces the hostility and discrimination they face. In many countries, minorities have faced greater hostility and discrimination in a later period than in earlier periods. In other countries, the reverse has been true. But the passage of time alone does not automatically produce either result.......... Within an even shorter span of time, the island nation of Sri Lanka, off the coast of India, went from being a country whose good relations between majority and minority had become a model for intergroup harmony to one with a decades-long civil war taking tens of thousands of lives. During the first half of the twentieth century, there was not a single riot between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority. But, during the second half of that century, there were many such riots, marked by unspeakable atrocities, and ultimately degenerating into a civil war that was still not completely ended as the twenty-first century dawned.


It was pretty much the norm that any country the British left fell into civil war. Ghana didn't, and I struggle after that. You could include South Africa, but then again we know why that was. The British ruled through division and managed by playing the different sides of a country against each other. Keep in mind that most of these countries aren't historically countries. They are territories conquered and melded together by the conquerors.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

whatithink said:


> So what's the purpose of the piece you posted.


To show how little we actually know about slavery as we try to justify Critical Race Theory with fallacious catch phrases and false assumptions about income, education, home ownership etc..  I don't hate blacks.  Never have.  Just hate how the Race baiters are making a disgusting living off of manufacturing race based crisis.

The Black Family                   

*Some of the most basic beliefs and assumptions about the black family are demonstrably fallacious. For example, it has been widely believed that black family names were the names of the slave masters who owned particular families. Such beliefs led a number of American blacks, during the 1960s especially, to repudiate those names as a legacy of slavery and give themselves new names— most famously boxing champion Cassius Clay renaming himself Muhammad Ali.*

Family names were in fact forbidden to blacks enslaved in the United States, as family names were forbidden to other people in lowly positions in various other times and places— slaves in China and parts of the Middle East, for example, and it was 1870 before common people in Japan were authorized to use surnames. In Western civilization, ordinary people began to have surnames in the Middle Ages.  In many places and times, family names were considered necessary and appropriate only for the elite, who moved in wider circles— both geographically and socially— and whose families' prestige was important to take with them. Slaves in the United States secretly gave themselves surnames in order to maintain a sense of family but they did not use those surnames around whites. Years after emancipation, blacks born during the era of slavery remained reluctant to tell white people their full names.

*The "slave names" fallacy is false not only because whites did not give slaves surnames but also because the names that blacks gave themselves were not simply the names of whoever owned them. During the era of slavery, it was common to choose other names. Otherwise, if all the families belonging to a given slave owner took his name, that would defeat the purpose of creating separate family identities. Ironically, when some blacks in the twentieth century began repudiating what they called "slave names," they often took Arabic names, even though Arabs over the centuries had enslaved more Africans than Europeans had.*

A fallacy with more substantial implications is that the current fatherless families so prevalent among contemporary blacks are a "legacy of slavery," where families were not recognized.* As with other social problems attributed to a "legacy of slavery," this ignores the fact that the problem has become much worse among generations of blacks far removed from slavery than among generations closer to the era of slavery. *Most black children were raised in two-parent homes, even under slavery, and for generations thereafter.  Freed blacks married, and marriage rates among blacks were slightly higher than among whites in the early twentieth century.  Blacks also had slightly higher rates of labor force participation than whites in every census from 1890 to 1950.                  

While 31 percent of black children were born to unmarried women in the early 1930s, that proportion rose to 77 percent by the early 1990s.  *If unwed childbirth was "a legacy of slavery," why was it so much less common among blacks who were two generations closer to the era of slavery?* *One sign of the breakdown of the nuclear family among blacks was that, by 1993, more than a million black children were being raised by their grandparents, about two-thirds as many as among whites, even though there are several times as many whites as blacks in the population of the United States. *

*When tragic retrogressions in all these respects became painfully apparent in the second half of the twentieth century, a "legacy of slavery" became a false explanation widely used, thereby avoiding confronting contemporary factors in contemporary problems.*

These retrogressions were not only dramatic in themselves, they had major impacts on other important individual and social results. For example, while most black children were still being raised in two-parent families as late as 1970, only one third were by 1995. Moreover, much social pathology is highly correlated with the absence of a father, both among blacks and whites, but the magnitude of the problem is greater among blacks because fathers are missing more often in black families. *While, in the late twentieth century, an absolute majority of those black families with no husband present lived in poverty, more than four-fifths of black husband-wife families did not. * From 1994 on into the twenty-first century, the poverty rate among black husband-wife families was below 10 percent.

It is obviously not simply the act of getting married which drastically reduces the poverty rate among blacks, or among other groups, but the values and behavior patterns which lead to marriage and which have a wider impact on many other things.3 6                                    

Economic Facts and Fallacies by Thomas Sowell


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Other such examples could be found in many countries and in many periods of history. In Bohemia, Germans and Czechs co-existed peacefully for centuries, until the rise of Czech nationalism, climaxed by the creation of the new nation of Czechoslovakia after the First World War, led to discrimination against Germans and then to a German backlash that led ultimately to the Munich crisis of 1938, when the Czechs were forced to relinquish the predominantly German Sudetenland to Nazi Germany. After Germany later took over all of Czechoslovakia, the Germans in that country then joined in the Nazis' persecution of Czechs. After the defeat of Germany in World War II, Germans in Czechoslovakia were expelled by the millions, often under brutal conditions that led to many deaths.


The Treaty of Versailles was a shit show and exhibit A in how not to act as a victor. It fueled the rise of the Nazis and WW2. The Marshall Plan is exhibit A in how to act as a victor - one of the USs finest moments, imho. Czechoslovakia was an artificial construct and no longer exists having peacefully split in two. "Great" powers drawing lines on a map and calling shit done with no realization or care for the short or long term impacts.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I probably agree its more about discrimination and removing discrimination at every level, for whatever reason and race becomes moot. I said Brazil was a poor example, btw, not that its a poor piece, although I do think it has plenty of discrepancies, some of which I showed.


I think the discrepancies go away with more context.  One of the best books I've ever read.  Economic Facts and Fallacies.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 12, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Yes, we've evolved, at times being pulled screaming in the right direction. Its surely bizarre and somewhat indicative that the civil rights act "lost the south" for the Ds and handed it to the Rs. If we had evolved, it would have been a slam dunk and apolitical.
> 
> When politics is all about culture wars, we haven't evolved nearly as much as we'd like to think we have. But then again, we are not alone in that regard.


Agree, but politics lives by culture wars.  That is why it is important to empirically show how important it is to not play identity politics with multi-causal problems that are often made worse by well meaning government programs that slow some of the positive trends that blacks were making long before the Civil Liberties Act.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> To show how little we actually know about slavery as we try to justify Critical Race Theory with fallacious catch phrases and false assumptions about income, education, home ownership etc..  I don't hate blacks.  Never have.  Just hate how the Race baiters are making a disgusting living off of manufacturing race based crisis.


I don't really care about CRT, tbh. I'm down with teaching historical fact in the raw. I'm not down with teaching some other version tainted one way or the other. I'm fine with recognizing bad shit happened. We should, and we should work hard to make sure it doesn't happen again. I'm not down with stupidity like reparations and such like.

WRT income, education & home ownership - here's a specific federal policy from less than 100 years ago which directly impacted blacks with respect to all 3, for their generation and the next. Around this time (1934) my grandfather was buying property, educated his kids who educated theirs. Two of those generations are still alive and reaping the benefit of my grandfathers work (& our own obviously, but you get the point).

Extract,

_He notes that the Federal Housing Administration, which was established in 1934, furthered the segregation efforts by refusing to insure mortgages in and near African-American neighborhoods — a policy known as "redlining." At the same time, the FHA was subsidizing builders who were mass-producing entire subdivisions for whites — with the requirement that none of the homes be sold to African-Americans._









						A 'Forgotten History' Of How The U.S. Government Segregated America
					

Author Richard Rothstein says the housing programs begun under the New Deal were tantamount to a "state-sponsored system of segregation," in which people of color were purposely excluded from suburbs.




					www.npr.org


----------



## whatithink (Jul 12, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The percentage of black families with incomes below the poverty line fell most sharply between 1940 and 1960, going from 87 percent to 47 percent over that span, before either the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and well before the 1970s, when "affirmative action" evolved into numerical "goals" or "quotas." While the downward trend in poverty continued, the pace of that decline did not accelerate after these legal landmarks but in fact slackened. The poverty rate declined from 47 percent to 30 percent during the decade of the 1960s and then only from 30 percent to 29 percent between 1970 and 1980. *However, much credit has been claimed for the civil rights laws of the 1960s or the War on Poverty *programs of that same decade, the hard facts show that blacks' rise out of poverty was more dramatic before any of these government actions got under way.


The US boomed from 1950 through 1972, to my recollection, and then there was a recession fueled by OPEC etc. So basically the economic growth would track with the country booming as a whole and then the decline would track with the US (& Global) recession in the 70s. The boom was pretty unprecedented and it build a huge middle class (blue and white collar), with extremely high tax rates for high earners. The recession ran through the 70s and only really turned in the 80s.

The economic correlation to the acts and affirmative action without looking at the actual economy in general is pretty lame, imv.


----------



## espola (Jul 12, 2021)

The National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO) told CNN in May that more than 250 public health officials had left their jobs since the pandemic started -- many of them against their will, and others under pressure from people opposed to public health efforts to control the pandemic. 









						Tennessee's vaccine manager says she's worried for her state after she was fired
					

The top vaccine official for the state of Tennessee said she was fired after an argument over vaccinating children against coronavirus.




					www.cnn.com
				




Politicians all over the country are so loyal to t and his twisted view of the pandemic that they are willing to sacrifice public health.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 12, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Yes, we've evolved, at times being pulled screaming in the right direction. Its surely bizarre and somewhat indicative that the civil rights act "lost the south" for the Ds and handed it to the Rs. If we had evolved, it would have been a slam dunk and apolitical.
> 
> When politics is all about culture wars, we haven't evolved nearly as much as we'd like to think we have. But then again, we are not alone in that regard.


there was a survey someone recently did. I can’t remember the source but it showed both parties had moved but the ds had moved substantially more leftwards since 2000. I can’t remember who did it now or if it was a partisan source but it does track with what I’ve seen in the past. You have for example a segment of the r community that thinks gay marriage is just fine. But then there’s a segment of the d community that embraces the Warren/sanders economic agenda and another portion that thinks waiving the flag is jingoistic and a hostile act or that kneels during the national anthem. Without passing judgment on the positions (that’s not my purpose here), such positions would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. Yes the rs have moved too but there’s not a whole lot outside foreign policy which I would have said “unthinkable” in the 80s.

since about the French Revolution in the west there have been three schools of thinking about how society is organized (there’s actually a 4th of which nazism was a part but because of Germany’s defeat in the 2nd ww it’s largely dead as a philosophical pole): traditionalism (stemming from old Christian traditions and monarchical philosophies), modernism (with roots most strongly in the enlightenment) and post modernism (stemming from the jacobin tradition and of which socialism is a small part). It’s a triangle around which you can place the various isms. Part of the problem is post modernism is on an upswing in the west and there’s also been a traditionalist rise (not as steep) to counter it. The problem for the modernists is that they aren’t sure which is a bigger threat so they’ve divided (with some allying with the traditionalists and some with the post modernists) making them less effective as a counterweight to either, and therefore placing the very foundations of the enlightenment on shaky ground (you see this at the way modernists divided over trump for example). The issue is these ways of looking at the world are fundamentally incompatible with each other and affect a whole range of issues beyond politics like what you worship, how you educate your kids and even how you speak to one another.  It’s been going on and evolving for almost 300 years now and we’ve hit the point, not just in the us but everywhere in the western influences world, where the divisions are coming to a boiling point.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> there was a survey someone recently did. I can’t remember the source but it showed both parties had moved but the ds had moved substantially more leftwards since 2000. I can’t remember who did it now or if it was a partisan source but it does track with what I’ve seen in the past. You have for example a segment of the r community that thinks gay marriage is just fine. But then there’s a segment of the d community that embraces the Warren/sanders economic agenda and another portion that thinks waiving the flag is jingoistic and a hostile act or that kneels during the national anthem. Without passing judgment on the positions (that’s not my purpose here), such positions would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. Yes the rs have moved too but there’s not a whole lot outside foreign policy which I would have said “unthinkable” in the 80s.
> 
> since about the French Revolution in the west there have been three schools of thinking about how society is organized (there’s actually a 4th of which nazism was a part but because of Germany’s defeat in the 2nd ww it’s largely dead as a philosophical pole): traditionalism (stemming from old Christian traditions and monarchical philosophies), modernism (with roots most strongly in the enlightenment) and post modernism (stemming from the jacobin tradition and of which socialism is a small part). It’s a triangle around which you can place the various isms. Part of the problem is post modernism is on an upswing in the west and there’s also been a traditionalist rise (not as steep) to counter it. The problem for the modernists is that they aren’t sure which is a bigger threat so they’ve divided (with some allying with the traditionalists and some with the post modernists) making them less effective as a counterweight to either, and therefore placing the very foundations of the enlightenment on shaky ground (you see this at the way modernists divided over trump for example). The issue is these ways of looking at the world are fundamentally incompatible with each other and affect a whole range of issues beyond politics like what you worship, how you educate your kids and even how you speak to one another.  It’s been going on and evolving for almost 300 years now and we’ve hit the point, not just in the us but everywhere in the western influences world, where the divisions are coming to a boiling point.


Naziism/fascism is alive and well in America, and t is the current figurehead.

As for the rest:  C- drivel.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

The Dallas CPAC audience cheered for death --









						They Clapped for Death at CPAC
					

We now have people cheering against the common good. Courtesy, compassion, safety: these are fronts in the culture war now.




					www.esquire.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> The Dallas CPAC audience cheered for death --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on July 12 said it will add a warning label to Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine that it is linked to a rare neurological disorder known as Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), while J&J confirmed it is “in discussions” with federal agencies.

“The FDA is announcing revisions to the vaccine recipient and vaccination provider fact sheets for the Johnson & Johnson (Janssen) COVID-19 Vaccine to include information pertaining to an observed increased risk of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) following vaccination,” an FDA spokesperson told The Epoch Times on July 12.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Naziism/fascism is alive and well in America, and t is the current figurehead.
> 
> As for the rest:  C- drivel.


Another -ism in your head only


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I don't really care about CRT, tbh. I'm down with teaching historical fact in the raw. I'm not down with teaching some other version tainted one way or the other. I'm fine with recognizing bad shit happened. We should, and we should work hard to make sure it doesn't happen again. I'm not down with stupidity like reparations and such like.
> 
> WRT income, education & home ownership - here's a specific federal policy from less than 100 years ago which directly impacted blacks with respect to all 3, for their generation and the next. Around this time (1934) my grandfather was buying property, educated his kids who educated theirs. Two of those generations are still alive and reaping the benefit of my grandfathers work (& our own obviously, but you get the point).
> 
> ...


The New Deal. Another euphemism for fallacy.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> there was a survey someone recently did. I can’t remember the source but it showed both parties had moved but the ds had moved substantially more leftwards since 2000. I can’t remember who did it now or if it was a partisan source but it does track with what I’ve seen in the past. You have for example a segment of the r community that thinks gay marriage is just fine. But then there’s a segment of the d community that embraces the Warren/sanders economic agenda and another portion that thinks waiving the flag is jingoistic and a hostile act or that kneels during the national anthem. Without passing judgment on the positions (that’s not my purpose here), such positions would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. Yes the rs have moved too but there’s not a whole lot outside foreign policy which I would have said “unthinkable” in the 80s.
> 
> since about the French Revolution in the west there have been three schools of thinking about how society is organized (there’s actually a 4th of which nazism was a part but because of Germany’s defeat in the 2nd ww it’s largely dead as a philosophical pole): traditionalism (stemming from old Christian traditions and monarchical philosophies), modernism (with roots most strongly in the enlightenment) and post modernism (stemming from the jacobin tradition and of which socialism is a small part). It’s a triangle around which you can place the various isms. Part of the problem is post modernism is on an upswing in the west and there’s also been a traditionalist rise (not as steep) to counter it. The problem for the modernists is that they aren’t sure which is a bigger threat so they’ve divided (with some allying with the traditionalists and some with the post modernists) making them less effective as a counterweight to either, and therefore placing the very foundations of the enlightenment on shaky ground (you see this at the way modernists divided over trump for example). The issue is these ways of looking at the world are fundamentally incompatible with each other and affect a whole range of issues beyond politics like what you worship, how you educate your kids and even how you speak to one another.  It’s been going on and evolving for almost 300 years now and we’ve hit the point, not just in the us but everywhere in the western influences world, where the divisions are coming to a boiling point.


The mix within the parties is because there should be more parties, but the one thing that unites R & D at a leadership level is the 2 party state. The fundamental problem with this is that primaries dictate who runs and redistricting gerrymanders too many districts to guarantee R or D to win. Primaries belch out extremists who then get elected because sheep just tick the R or D box.

fwiw, the Ds move leftward would still put them right of center is most every other country. Its a handful who grab the headlines, but most are still good corporate capitalists. Reagan couldn't get elected today as a R. He'd stand a much better chance as a D. You just have to look at the marginalization of certain Rs, e.g. Flake or Romney or Cheney.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Naziism/fascism is alive and well in America, and t is the current figurehead.
> 
> As for the rest:  C- drivel.


Nazism and fascism are two different isms.  Nazism is primarily based on racial theories which traditionalist fascism like Francoism does not. Trump as a populist does have some traits similar to francoism and is also firmly in the traditionalist side of the pyramid.  Nazism also has some traditionalist traits but they aren’t traditionalist (religion wasn’t an important pillar, nor was restoration of traditional governance like the Kaiser but extreme nationalism or jingoism was).  Nazism also had some postmodernist socialist traits including central planning of the economy, state monopoly, and the progress of history. In the philosophical pyramid it sits near the top of the pyramid on the legs between postmodernism and traditionalism while Francoism sits on the traditionalist corner slightly tilted towards postmodernism and just barely off the ground to the top of the pyramid


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> The mix within the parties is because there should be more parties, but the one thing that unites R & D at a leadership level is the 2 party state. The fundamental problem with this is that primaries dictate who runs and redistricting gerrymanders too many districts to guarantee R or D to win. Primaries belch out extremists who then get elected because sheep just tick the R or D box.
> 
> fwiw, the Ds move leftward would still put them right of center is most every other country. Its a handful who grab the headlines, but most are still good corporate capitalists. Reagan couldn't get elected today as a R. He'd stand a much better chance as a D. You just have to look at the marginalization of certain Rs, e.g. Flake or Romney or Cheney.


I think Reagan’s main problem today would be his interventionists foreign policy which is largely also the case with the 3 you cite. Reagan would probably also drift traditionalist as bill clinton has drifted post modernist. Reagan’s base though is the working class white rs which he first switched from ds….this group is the most rabid of trump supporters. trumpism isn’t more traditionalist than farangism or le pen…there are just more traditionalists in the us than Europe…the entire thing is tied together by antielitism which is central to the new right.  

As for the aoc wing of the ds, yes I agree it’s more conservative than other countries but the numbers are growing and while not further left than the communist party of France, they are certainly left of macron (who is a technocratic modernist), merkel (another technocratic modernist), and are only slightly right of the current British or Spanish labor party (that supports nationalization). The politics of Europe are slightly more stable as you point out due to the many parties but these parties have lost an ability to work with each other (the German socialist party is effectively a modernist party to the right of aoc and Germany is governed effectively by the Democratic Party in the us pre Obama)


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> There is way more good than bad, but there should be no fear at looking at the latter.


The problem with CRT is not that they are looking and studying the past. They are currently laying blame to people currently. They are telling people if you are white, you are part of the problem even if you don't think you are. Saying that if black people think hard work is the key to getting ahead, that too is a racist point of view (read Kendi), etc. 

They are teaching things like meritocracy is a racist concept. 

They are categorizing people based on race. 

Etc, etc. 

That is where they are going off the rails.

They don't want people to think in terms of a colorblind society.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem with CRT is not that they are looking and studying the past. They are currently laying blame to people currently. They are telling people if you are white, you are part of the problem even if you don't think you are. Saying that if black people think hard work is the key to getting ahead, that too is a racist point of view (read Kendi), etc.
> 
> They are teaching things like meritocracy is a racist concept.
> 
> ...


What I find fascinating is that not only is the philosophy post modernist (traditionalists believe in order, modernists in equality of opportunity, post modernists in equity) but it resurrects that fourth part of the pyramid which since the defeat of Nazism and the discrediting of eugenics hasn’t had much traction, sitting above the post modernist corner and titled slightly up towards the 4th end at the top of the pyramid. No I’m not saying crt is Nazism anymore than I’m saying trump is franco.  Further crt doesn’t believe the traits are genetically immutable (having been created through a system of oppression). Still it does define you by virtue of your genes…it’s fascinating…it’s the first time in the west this part of the pyramid is even slightly active since wwii and it seems to be moving up the pyramid as time goes on


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

France and Greece introduce mandatory vaccination for health care workers (no exceptions for previous illness). Macron says mandatory vaccination of the entire population of France is on the table

Meanwhile California has backtracked and is kicking masking back to school districts and counties. Newsom must have gotten nervous since he’s doing everything possible it seems to not only win the recall but landslide it


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I don't really care about CRT, tbh.
> 
> Extract,
> 
> ...


tbh, everything that you posted after posting "I don't really care about CRT, tbh", says that you really do care about CRT. Reparation'$ and redlining is where CRT gets it's footing from.  Like NPI's, most government interventions end up creating more systemic problems than they solve.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nazism and fascism are two different isms.  Nazism is primarily based on racial theories which traditionalist fascism like Francoism does not. Trump as a populist does have some traits similar to francoism and is also firmly in the traditionalist side of the pyramid.  Nazism also has some traditionalist traits but they aren’t traditionalist (religion wasn’t an important pillar, nor was restoration of traditional governance like the Kaiser but extreme nationalism or jingoism was).  Nazism also had some postmodernist socialist traits including central planning of the economy, state monopoly, and the progress of history. In the philosophical pyramid it sits near the top of the pyramid on the legs between postmodernism and traditionalism while Francoism sits on the traditionalist corner slightly tilted towards postmodernism and just barely off the ground to the top of the pyramid


D-


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem with CRT is not that they are looking and studying the past. They are currently laying blame to people currently. They are telling people if you are white, you are part of the problem even if you don't think you are. Saying that if black people think hard work is the key to getting ahead, that too is a racist point of view (read Kendi), etc.
> 
> They are teaching things like meritocracy is a racist concept.
> 
> ...


Where is "CRT" doing that?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> D-


God help anyone who is actually your student. Rather have fletcher from whiplash.


----------



## watfly (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Reagan couldn't get elected today as a R. He'd stand a much better chance as a D. You just have to look at the marginalization of certain Rs, e.g. Flake or Romney or Cheney.


And I wonder if Bill could get elected as a Democrat?  It seems that his stance on the border (among other things) would not be palatable for most D's.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> God help anyone who is actually your student. Rather have fletcher from whiplash.


Would you like me to correct your paper line by line?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Would you like me to correct your paper line by line?


If you have anything useful to actually add feel free. But do we always need to start with your tiresome act?


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

watfly said:


> And I wonder if Bill could get elected as a Democrat?  It seems that his stance on the border (among other things) would not be palatable for most D's.


Bill wouldn't be faced with the same border situation today.  How he would act might be like Biden -- coasting along on established practices.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you have anything useful to actually add feel free. But do we always need to start with your tiresome act?


"your tiresome act" ?  Really? I've learned by now that you just can't help yourself.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> "your tiresome act" ?  Really? I've learned by now that you just can't help yourself.


So you are still dodging instead of levelling an actual critique.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 13, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> tbh, everything that you posted after posting "I don't really care about CRT, tbh", says that you really do care about CRT. Reparation'$ and redlining is where CRT gets it's footing from.  Like NPI's, most government interventions end up creating more systemic problems than they solve.


You should re-read what I said. The example I gave is historical fact. Redlining happened. I don't agree with reparations, as I said. If you think recognizing historical fact which definitely contributed to the upward mobility of some Americans and not others, means I care about CRT, then you're misunderstanding my point. They are not mutually inclusive. A proponent of CRT might say they are, but they would be wrong.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem with CRT is not that they are looking and studying the past. They are currently laying blame to people currently. They are telling people if you are white, you are part of the problem even if you don't think you are. Saying that if black people think hard work is the key to getting ahead, that too is a racist point of view (read Kendi), etc.
> 
> They are teaching things like meritocracy is a racist concept.
> 
> ...


As I said, I'm not really bothered by CRT and, for example, the whole idea of reparations (laying the blame to people currently) is a nonsense to me. I don't see the concepts you layout being taught to my kids, and I can't speak to others. I agree that we should be colorblind, that's the right approach.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> As I said, I'm not really bothered by CRT and, for example, the whole idea of reparations (laying the blame to people currently) is a nonsense to me. I don't see the concepts you layout being taught to my kids, and I can't speak to others. I agree that we should be colorblind, that's the right approach.


If you believe in "colorblindness" then you fundamentally disagree with what those pushing CRT (and their associated fellow traveler philosophies, whatever wants to call them these days) are saying.  They'd say your colorblindness is actually racism, because you are ignoring certain historical and systemic systems of oppression that oppress people of color.  Colorblindness merely serves as a way for white people to get others to ignore the oppression of people of color because if we can't see color, we can't acknowledge the grievances.  MLK/colorblindness is a modernist principle of equality.  The post modernists CRT & others want to see race because that's the only way to tear down the system of oppression and create equity (which is different than equality).  They are 2 fundamentally different ways of viewing the world.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So you are still dodging instead of levelling an actual critique.


Saging Naziism is not fascism because it is not Francoism is like saying blue is not a color because it is not red.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem with CRT is not that they are looking and studying the past. They are currently laying blame to people currently. They are telling people if you are white, you are part of the problem even if you don't think you are. Saying that if black people think hard work is the key to getting ahead, that too is a racist point of view (read Kendi), etc.
> 
> They are teaching things like meritocracy is a racist concept.
> 
> ...


Again you display your lack of comprehension concerning CRT.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> You should re-read what I said. The example I gave is historical fact. Redlining happened. I don't agree with reparations, as I said. If you think recognizing historical fact which definitely contributed to the upward mobility of some Americans and not others, means I care about CRT, then you're misunderstanding my point. They are not mutually inclusive. A proponent of CRT might say they are, but they would be wrong.


Who are the proponents of CRT?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Naziism/fascism is alive and well in America, and t is the current figurehead.
> 
> As for the rest:  C- drivel.


The hybrid is now simply referred to as “trumpism”.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Saging Naziism is not fascism because it is not Francoism is like saying blue is not a color because it is not red.


As usual, you pull a Magoo and the point goes sailing right past you.  Nazism is to fascism as fuchsia is to red.  It has some elements of red but also some elements of purple and pink too.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you believe in "colorblindness" then you fundamentally disagree with what those pushing CRT (and their associated fellow traveler philosophies, whatever wants to call them these days) are saying.  They'd say your colorblindness is actually racism, because you are ignoring certain historical and systemic systems of oppression that oppress people of color.  Colorblindness merely serves as a way for white people to get others to ignore the oppression of people of color because if we can't see color, we can't acknowledge the grievances.  MLK/colorblindness is a modernist principle of equality.  The post modernists CRT & others want to see race because that's the only way to tear down the system of oppression and create equity (which is different than equality).  They are 2 fundamentally different ways of viewing the world.


Maybe you could explain to hound what he is missing about CRT?


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you believe in "colorblindness" then you fundamentally disagree with what those pushing CRT (and their associated fellow traveler philosophies, whatever wants to call them these days) are saying.  They'd say your colorblindness is actually racism, because you are ignoring certain historical and systemic systems of oppression that oppress people of color.  Colorblindness merely serves as a way for white people to get others to ignore the oppression of people of color because if we can't see color, we can't acknowledge the grievances.  MLK/colorblindness is a modernist principle of equality.  The post modernists CRT & others want to see race because that's the only way to tear down the system of oppression and create equity (which is different than equality).  They are 2 fundamentally different ways of viewing the world.


What do you mean by "those pushing CRT"?


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As usual, you pull a Magoo and the point goes sailing right past you.  Nazism is to fascism as fuchsia is to red.  It has some elements of red but also some elements of purple and pink too.


your attempt to dismiss my point with ad hominems only demonstrates the paucity of your position.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Maybe you could explain to hound what he is missing about CRT?


Based on her recent postings, she doesn't get it either.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> What do you mean by "those pushing CRT"?


fine: amended to read "those who believe in CRT (and their associated fellow traeler philosophies, whatever wants to call them these days) are saying."


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> your attempt to dismiss my point with ad hominems only demonstrates the paucity of your position.


 I didn't just dismiss it.  I responded to it by saying your analogy missed the point, which is typical of you, which is why we call you Magoo and I set up the proper analogy.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Based on her recent postings, she doesn't get it either.


I think the label CRT isn't particularly useful, particularly given the deliberate shell game ("it's not CRT!") going on with the left right now.  I prefer post-modernist racial theories.  Not leveling a critique here of them either (though I am as modernist as a modernist can get).  The critique doesn't really interest me.  It's purely a philosophical exercise for me as to where all these lines of thought relate to one another, where they come from through historical trends, and why they have a hard time seeing passed one another.  it's an academic, not a political, exercise for me.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If you believe in "colorblindness" then you fundamentally disagree with what those pushing CRT (and their associated fellow traveler philosophies, whatever wants to call them these days) are saying.  They'd say your colorblindness is actually racism, because you are ignoring certain historical and systemic systems of oppression that oppress people of color.  Colorblindness merely serves as a way for white people to get others to ignore the oppression of people of color because if we can't see color, we can't acknowledge the grievances.  MLK/colorblindness is a modernist principle of equality.  The post modernists CRT & others want to see race because that's the only way to tear down the system of oppression and create equity (which is different than equality).  They are 2 fundamentally different ways of viewing the world.


I guess some people see things in terms of "sides", I don't. Those people try to define things in terms that set you on a side, or guilt you to a side, but I'm not bothered by their definitions, never mind where their definitions might put me in their heads.

I like to think that I can look at something objectively and come to *my* conclusion of right/wrong. That's all I got, *my* conclusion. I can try to explain it and others can agree or not, or just ignore me.

I'm not someone else's label though. So colorblind, to *me*, just means people. If it means something else to someone else, then OK - that's them.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> fine: amended to read "those who believe in CRT (and their associated fellow traeler philosophies, whatever wants to call them these days) are saying."


What do you mean by "believe in CRT"?  

Reminds of people who argued with thermometers, right here on this forum (or, more accurately, one of its predecessor incarnations).


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I didn't just dismiss it.  I responded to it by saying your analogy missed the point, which is typical of you, which is why we call you Magoo and I set up the proper analogy.


You can call me all the names you want, but that doesn't make your statement any truer.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I guess some people see things in terms of "sides", I don't. Those people try to define things in terms that set you on a side, or guilt you to a side, but I'm not bothered by their definitions, never mind where their definitions might put me in their heads.
> 
> I like to think that I can look at something objectively and come to *my* conclusion of right/wrong. That's all I got, *my* conclusion. I can try to explain it and others can agree or not, or just ignore me.
> 
> I'm not someone else's label though. So colorblind, to *me*, just means people. If it means something else to someone else, then OK - that's them.


Oh let me be clear in case I've been misunderstood.  I wasn't talking about "sides".  The philosophical pyramid is a pyramid of ways of looking at the world.  People can be all over the place, though some, like Trump, Thatcher, Stalin, or Franco might have isms named after them if they make a large enough historical impact.  I was talking about the colored glasses through which you and everyone else view the world.  If you really believe in colorblindness, odds are you are a modernist.  That view will dictate how you come to your conclusions or right/wrong but ultimately you are right, they are your conclusions, since outside of a handful of true believers and historical figures, no one really is just an ism.    

The pyramid is centuries older than you and reflects the way western (and by that virtue, former colonial) societies have been shaped and has been evolved (Asia is a separate fascinating discussion....it has its own figure which folks have been arguing about for decades now, in part because its been tainted by the influence of western philosophies).  It has its origins in the Renaissance and was given shape in the French revolution (where Jacobinism, monarchism, and liberalism definitively split into different visions of what the world should be and then even turned on each other [fighting for example over whether the otters should control the answer to the great question]).  But yeah, while you are an individual and have your individual thoughts and ideas, the pyramid influences how you view your world and come to those conclusions (whether you like it or not).


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Based on her recent postings, she doesn't get it either.





Grace T. said:


> I think the label CRT isn't particularly useful, particularly given the deliberate shell game ("it's not CRT!") going on with the left right now.  I prefer post-modernist racial theories.  Not leveling a critique here of them either (though I am as modernist as a modernist can get).  The critique doesn't really interest me.  It's purely a philosophical exercise for me as to where all these lines of thought relate to one another, where they come from through historical trends, and why they have a hard time seeing passed one another.  it's an academic, not a political, exercise for me.


q.e.d.

That wasn't even hard, since she did the work for me.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> You can call me all the names you want, but that doesn't make your statement any truer.


So no critique on the substance.  Got it.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> What do you mean by "believe in CRT"?
> 
> Reminds of people who argued with thermometers, right here on this forum (or, more accurately, one of its predecessor incarnations).


It's not important to me.  Which is why I have the expanded paren afterwards and why I prefer the term post modernist racial theory.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> q.e.d.
> 
> That wasn't even hard, since she did the work for me.


You seem to think I'm trying to level a critique of CRT or something.  Again, I'm not.  CRT doesn't really interest me.  It's just a very small subset of postmodernist thought.  Again, my interests aren't political, but academic.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So no critique on the substance.  Got it.


I already gave you the first line.  You responded by calling me names, dulling my enthusiasm to proceed further.

I don't have the inclination or the time right now to condense more than 5 centuries of European history into a single paragraph.  I'll have more time next week (catsitting for my daughter (I hope she has A/C))


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You seem to think I'm trying to level a critique of CRT or something.  Again, I'm not.  CRT doesn't really interest me.  It's just a very small subset of postmodernist thought.  Again, my interests aren't political, but academic.


You use the term in the same manner as, for example, Tucker Carlson does.  Do you mean the same thing he does by it?


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's not important to me.  Which is why I have the expanded paren afterwards and why I prefer the term post modernist racial theory.


What do you mean by "post modernist racial theory"?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> You use the term in the same manner as, for example, Tucker Carlson does.  Do you mean the same thing he does by it?


I haven't seen what Tucker Carlson said about CRT.  Again, its not a topic that interests me.   CRT has a very defined and limited explanation.  What seems to be going on though is the right is labelling every racial theory as "CRT" in an attempt to create a boogeyman, even though such racial theory may not technically be CRT.  But the left is doing the same and saying "oh we aren't pushing CRT....CRT is this very specific thing...we just want to make sure history talks about racism", which is a disingenuous shell game since they aren't just pushing facts about historical racism but very specific philosophies (there's more than 1 at play here but they are all related) related to how to view the world through a post-modernist framework.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> What do you mean by "post modernist racial theory"?


I'll respond the same as you did: I'm very busy right now and don't have the time to condense more than 5 centuries of western philosophical discourse into a several pages long treatise.  The division is very broad and impacts things like religion, art, music and architecture as well.  I posted a good summary a while back (I think from city journal) but it itself is like 40 pages long.  If you a really interested, go look for it.  Or, Jordan Peterson has some pretty good lectures on the stuff (I don't like it when he gets into politics, but his philosophy is pretty solid).  If you were more agreeable of a person I would offer to have a long discussion on the evolution over tea some day, but frankly you are a disagreeable person who gets his jollyies over trolling, and whose breadth of thought (while it might have been formidable once) is very limited now, so no thanks.  So I'll leave you with a thumbnail: various philosophies of thought which emphasize racial equity instead of equality and rooted in the belief that the world operates through systems of racial oppression having a basis in the evolution of post-modernist thought.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I haven't seen what Tucker Carlson said about CRT.  Again, its not a topic that interests me.   CRT has a very defined and limited explanation.  What seems to be going on though is the right is labelling every racial theory as "CRT" in an attempt to create a boogeyman, even though such racial theory may not technically be CRT.  But the left is doing the same and saying "oh we aren't pushing CRT....CRT is this very specific thing...we just want to make sure history talks about racism", which is a disingenuous shell game since they aren't just pushing facts about historical racism but very specific philosophies (there's more than 1 at play here but they are all related) related to how to view the world through a post-modernist framework.


I'm not sure I follow.  When Tucker and his friends make an ignorant or deliberately dishonest statement about CRT, and "the left" point out the error, then "the left" is doing the same?

It's not hard to see where your sympathies lie.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh let me be clear in case I've been misunderstood.  I wasn't talking about "sides".  The philosophical pyramid is a pyramid of ways of looking at the world.  People can be all over the place, though some, like Trump, Thatcher, Stalin, or Franco might have isms named after them if they make a large enough historical impact.  I was talking about the colored glasses through which you and everyone else view the world.  If you really believe in colorblindness, odds are you are a modernist.  That view will dictate how you come to your conclusions or right/wrong but ultimately you are right, they are your conclusions, since outside of a handful of true believers and historical figures, no one really is just an ism.
> 
> The pyramid is centuries older than you and reflects the way western (and by that virtue, former colonial) societies have been shaped and has been evolved (Asia is a separate fascinating discussion....it has its own figure which folks have been arguing about for decades now, in part because its been tainted by the influence of western philosophies).  It has its origins in the Renaissance and was given shape in the French revolution (where Jacobinism, monarchism, and liberalism definitively split into different visions of what the world should be and then even turned on each other [fighting for example over whether the otters should control the answer to the great question]).  But yeah, while you are an individual and have your individual thoughts and ideas, the pyramid influences how you view your world and come to those conclusions (whether you like it or not).


I agree that life experiences shape our thoughts and influences, be that cultures we are brought up in, or interacted with or adopted or read about etc. I'm not into philosophy, per se, or philosophers at all. So I have no context to comment on what pyramids they may have developed etc.

Generally though I see labels being thrown around constantly, driven to a large extent by the media and politicians for their own ends. So if I state an opinion, someone immediately sticks a label on me, e.g. my colorblind comment apparently means racism to some CRT proponent, which would seem to label me racist (to them) by extension ... although they may be nice and say I'm an unintentional racist. For that example, I would just think, "wtf, they've lost the plot", and carry on, bemused and not very bothered by them.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'll respond the same as you did: I'm very busy right now and don't have the time to condense more than 5 centuries of western philosophical discourse into a several pages long treatise.  The division is very broad and impacts things like religion, art, music and architecture as well.  I posted a good summary a while back (I think from city journal) but it itself is like 40 pages long.  If you a really interested, go look for it.  Or, Jordan Peterson has some pretty good lectures on the stuff (I don't like it when he gets into politics, but his philosophy is pretty solid).  If you were more agreeable of a person I would offer to have a long discussion on the evolution over tea some day, but frankly you are a disagreeable person who gets his jollyies over trolling, and whose breadth of thought (while it might have been formidable once) is very limited now, so no thanks.  So I'll leave you with a thumbnail: various philosophies of thought which emphasize racial equity instead of equality and rooted in the belief that the world operates through systems of racial oppression having a basis in the evolution of post-modernist thought.


I underlined the ad hominem part in case you didn't do that on purpose.

I googled the term "post modernist racial theory" and they suggested "postmodernism racial theory" for which the first resulting paragraph is 

Adherents of postmodern *theory* argue that social catego- ries, such as gender, *race*, and sexuality are socially constructed and that essentialist notions of identity, which suggest that identity is static, natural, and unchanging, are theoretically wrong 

Is that what you meant?


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I agree that life experiences shape our thoughts and influences, be that cultures we are brought up in, or interacted with or adopted or read about etc. I'm not into philosophy, per se, or philosophers at all. So I have no context to comment on what pyramids they may have developed etc.
> 
> Generally though I see labels being thrown around constantly, driven to a large extent by the media and politicians for their own ends. So if I state an opinion, someone immediately sticks a label on me, e.g. my colorblind comment apparently means racism to some CRT proponent, which would seem to label me racist (to them) by extension ... although they may be nice and say I'm an unintentional racist. For that example, I would just think, "wtf, they've lost the plot", and carry on, bemused and not very bothered by them.


You used the term "CRT proponent".  Who did you have in mind?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm not sure I follow.  When Tucker and his friends make an ignorant or deliberately dishonest statement about CRT, and "the left" point out the error, then "the left" is doing the same?
> 
> It's not hard to see where your sympathies lie.


Way to crash into that barn:

1. The right seems to be making CRT (something which is a very specific philosophical difference) a general boogey man.

separately

2. The left is disingenuously saying the only thing they are trying to push is historical facts to make sure racism is talked about.  That's not what's going on.  Accompanying those facts is a post modernist philosophy that goes along with them.  How those facts are to be interpreted

Also on a side note, this was always going to be inevitable.  There are only so many hours in the classroom so the discussion of history requires making choices about what you are going to talk about: are you going to talk about western civ or are you going to devote equal time to Asian history?  How much on US history v. world history?  If AP Euro history why not AP Asia history?  Do you talk about great people, great battles, inventions or ordinary folks (knowing if you talk about great people they are mostly rich men since these are the people who rightly or wrongly carried the most influence)?  Do I devote a month to African American history (in which case, as with my son's elementary school, everyone else wants a credit too including Latino [don't even get me started on Latinx], Asian, South Asian, Persian, LGBTQ [and then every one of the sub letters], women and those with disabilities)?  The philosophies themselves (traditionalism, modernism, postmodernism), representing different ways to view the world, will affect what topics we choose to focus on, how we portray them (since all stories have heroes and villains) and what philosophy we push along side of it.  Given the split in the philosophies, the current clash was always inevitable.  Even putting a flag on a truck on the 4th of July is now controversial: is it a hostile act in support of Trumpism and repression, is it a showing a patriotism in a nation with an imperfect history but that represents still the pinnacle of democracy, is it a proud act of support for one's country, which should come first and foremost before anything except some exceptions like God.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> I underlined the ad hominem part in case you didn't do that on purpose.
> 
> I googled the term "post modernist racial theory" and they suggested "postmodernism racial theory" for which the first resulting paragraph is
> 
> ...


I don't know where you got it from.  I could only outline my understanding, which for the same reasons you stated, I decline to do today.  

I wasn't engaging in an ad in an attempt to win an argument.  I was merely stating a fact....this is a conversation which is better held face to face (or in the classroom), if you weren't a disagreeable person I would have loved to have pursued it with you as philosophy (as opposed to politics which I can't stand) is one of my prides and joys, but you are a disagreeable person which means I don't want to, and in any case I'm not sure you have the capacity right now to carry on such a conversation (for which despite our disagreements and name callings, you do, as a human being, have my sympathies).


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

I don't know where you got it from.  I could only outline my understanding, which for the same reasons you stated, I decline to do today. 

I wasn't engaging in an ad in an attempt to win an argument.  I was merely stating a fact....this is a conversation which is better held face to face (or in the classroom), if you weren't a disagreeable person I would have loved to have pursued it with you as philosophy (as opposed to politics which I can't stand) is one of my prides and joys, but you are a disagreeable person which means I don't want to, and in any case I'm not sure you have the capacity right now to carry on such a conversation (for which despite our disagreements and name callings, you do, as a human being, have my sympathies).
[/QUOTE]

I only disagree with you when you are wrong.  Most of my responses to your posts are simply attempts to clarify what you mean, which for some reason you feel merit an insult as a response.  You can call me all the names you like when you don't have a ready answer.  That says more about you than it does about me.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't know where you got it from.  I could only outline my understanding, which for the same reasons you stated, I decline to do today.
> 
> I wasn't engaging in an ad in an attempt to win an argument.  I was merely stating a fact....this is a conversation which is better held face to face (or in the classroom), if you weren't a disagreeable person I would have loved to have pursued it with you as philosophy (as opposed to politics which I can't stand) is one of my prides and joys, but you are a disagreeable person which means I don't want to, and in any case I'm not sure you have the capacity right now to carry on such a conversation (for which despite our disagreements and name callings, you do, as a human being, have my sympathies).


I only disagree with you when you are wrong.  Most of my responses to your posts are simply attempts to clarify what you mean, which for some reason you feel merit an insult as a response.  You can call me all the names you like when you don't have a ready answer.  That says more about you than it does about me.
[/QUOTE]
The problem with your schtick is you disagree without adding anything meaningful in return or taking a position yourself. To say you are trying to clarify is laughable since what you are doing is trying to pull the conversation down tangents so you can troll. It’s why you focus on odd little branches instead of the main line of thought. 

As for the names you are the one throwing around the coocoos and nonsense. You are a disagreeable person and I just throw it back at you.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> You used the term "CRT proponent".  Who did you have in mind?


The reply was a follow on from https://www.socalsoccer.com/threads/bad-news-thread.19412/post-399335.

So these people from that "those pushing CRT (and their associated fellow traveler philosophies, whatever wants to call them these days) are saying. They'd say your colorblindness is actually racism ", whoever they may be.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

More interesting than the stupid mask stuff, children under 12 unlikely according to Fauci to be vaccinated before year end.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1415006074483118085


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem with your schtick is you disagree without adding anything meaningful in return or taking a position yourself. To say you are trying to clarify is laughable since what you are doing is trying to pull the conversation down tangents so you can troll. It’s why you focus on odd little branches instead of the main line of thought.
> 
> As for the names you are the one throwing around the coocoos and nonsense. You are a disagreeable person and I just throw it back at you.


You are just adding evidence to my theory about the emptiness of your posts.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> More interesting than the stupid mask stuff, children under 12 unlikely according to Fauci to be vaccinated before year end.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1415006074483118085


"...should be...guidelines...recommendations..."

Where does Fauci say "forced"?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> You are just adding evidence to my theory about the emptiness of your posts.


And you as to my theory of you and how you operate.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem with your schtick is you disagree without adding anything meaningful in return or taking a position yourself.


That is indeed the issue with espola. Never taking a position.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is indeed the issue with espola. Never taking a position.


Hands and knees maybe.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

Little by little, common sense is making its return.

Singapore has announced that it will stop counting COVID "cases," and focus entirely on outcomes -- which is what we should have been doing from the start.

We're still tracking them in the U.S., though, and you may have heard that the 7-day case average increased by 25 percent between June 28 and July 11. But the 7-day average of hospitalizations is up just 6.5 percent.

Kyle Lamb provides context for these numbers: across these same dates in 2020, cases rose 41% and hospitalizations (using COVID Tracking Project state census numbers) rose 59%.

Now, instead of 41% and 59%, it's 25% and 6.5%.

In the UK we likewise see a decoupling of cases from deaths


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That is indeed the issue with espola. Never taking a position.


 Here' a position -- you have no idea what you are talking about whenever you mention CRT.

Change my mind.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I haven't seen what Tucker Carlson said about CRT.  Again, its not a topic that interests me.   CRT has a very defined and limited explanation.  What seems to be going on though is the right is labelling every racial theory as "CRT" in an attempt to create a boogeyman, even though such racial theory may not technically be CRT.  But the left is doing the same and saying "oh we aren't pushing CRT....CRT is this very specific thing...we just want to make sure history talks about racism", which is a disingenuous shell game since they aren't just pushing facts about historical racism but very specific philosophies (there's more than 1 at play here but they are all related) related to how to view the world through a post-modernist framework.


You seem to be confusing a reaction to a agenda pushing effort to an agenda. IMHO


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You seem to be confusing a reaction to a agenda pushing effort to an agenda. IMHO


No…the left has an agenda too. It may not be “crt” (don’t care what you label it) but there is an ideology or ism behind this effort on the left to update the curriculum.  In fact I’m sure the right would say they are just reacting to the lefts efforts to push an agenda. When a perspective depends on your partisan bias it’s time to check that bias. 

Only you would believe that only one side of this has an agenda and it isn’t yours.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You seem to be confusing a reaction to a agenda pushing effort to an agenda. IMHO


Which is which?

Is CRT an agenda which the right reacted to?

Or is anti-CRT an agenda which the left is reacting to?

Looks like both, at least to me.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

Interesting paper.  Being forced to work in person, or high density living situations were the key drivers of the pandemic (notwithstanding that they lay this partially on "systemic racism", presumably because people of color had to work and lived in worse housing than the white people in big housing with remote work).






						AAAS
					






					science.sciencemag.org


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No…the left has an agenda too. It may not be “crt” (don’t care what you label it) but there is an ideology or ism behind this effort on the left to update the curriculum.  In fact I’m sure the right would say they are just reacting to the lefts efforts to push an agenda. When a perspective depends on your partisan bias it’s time to check that bias.
> 
> Only you would believe that only one side of this has an agenda and it isn’t yours.


My exposure to this has been through news stories about organized groups attending local school board meetings demanding that CRT be removed from local schools.  When the board and superintendent respond that there is no such content, nor any plans for any such content, that doesn't seem to satisfy them.  Now we are hearing from more conscientious debaters like Grace that there are plans to introduce it into the curriculum real soon now, as if that justifies the original hysteria.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Interesting paper.  Being forced to work in person, or high density living situations were the key drivers of the pandemic (notwithstanding that they lay this partially on "systemic racism", presumably because people of color had to work and lived in worse housing than the white people in big housing with remote work).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"Structural racism" is not the same as "systemic racism".


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The hybrid is now simply referred to as “trumpism”.


You guys crack me up.  And you say all of this either with straight face or a smirk.  Regardless, it's funny.  Keep it up.

Layout your comparison between trumpy and Nazism.  You give him way too much credit.  It is convenient though.  Snatch out of thin air one of the most horrible things that has happened to humanity and attribute it to someone/something you disagree with.  It aligns with how  journalism is performed in today's world.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Which is which?
> 
> Is CRT an agenda which the right reacted to?
> 
> ...


Its' what drives the $$$ into their coffers.  Secretly both sides are drinking bourbon and smoking cigars together.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> "Structural racism" is not the same as "systemic racism".


Fair.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You guys crack me up.  And you say all of this either with straight face or a smirk.  Regardless, it's funny.  Keep it up.
> 
> Layout your comparison between trumpy and Nazism.  You give him way too much credit.  It is convenient though.  Snatch out of thin air one of the most horrible things that has happened to humanity and attribute it to someone/something you disagree with.  It aligns with how  journalism is performed in today's world.


Do you have a better candidate for American Furher?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> My exposure to this has been through news stories about organized groups attending local school board meetings demanding that CRT be removed from local schools.  When the board and superintendent respond that there is no such content, nor any plans for any such content, that doesn't seem to satisfy them.  Now we are hearing from more conscientious debaters like Grace that there are plans to introduce it into the curriculum real soon now, as if that justifies the original hysteria.


I don’t know about crt but the post modernists have been pushing an agenda…we’ve heard about the math, there’s the reading curriculum, and ultimately in boils down to which text books are purchased and under which of the 3 philosophies they are written. I’ve seen it at play in our own school board and even in the dynamics of my kids 2 private schools.  To say there’s nothing going on here and you are crazy if you think there so is the worst form of gaslighting.  


You are just parroting their talking points btw which in the end should put to rest an notion you are a “conservative” which I always found hysterical


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Which is which?
> 
> Is CRT an agenda which the right reacted to?
> 
> ...


Spoken like a true modernist. I know you are a modernist at heart but it is funny to see you go at it with your buds.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Do you have a better candidate for American Furher?


No such thing as an American Fuhrer.  Cool headline though - I can see it now in the NYT, Rolling Stone, etc.  I don't know you but it's quite a disturbing take and really minimizes a tragedy.   But it fits into a narrative perpetuated by a group of people that need to market a made up bad guy in a weak attempt to display intellect.  Such nonsense that it's comical.  But this narrative is making people a ton of money.  I'll make sure to let my Jewish friends in on the secret that trumpy is the Fuhrer reincarnate and that they better run for the hills.

I'm sure you are joking...still doesn't make it less gross.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I don’t know about crt but the post modernists have been pushing an agenda…we’ve heard about the math, there’s the reading curriculum, and ultimately in boils down to which text books are purchased and under which of the 3 philosophies they are written. I’ve seen it at play in our own school board and even in the dynamics of my kids 2 private schools.  To say there’s nothing going on here and you are crazy if you think there so is the worst form of gaslighting.
> 
> 
> You are just parroting their talking points btw which in the end should put to rest an notion you are a “conservative” which I always found hysterical


Coocoo.

And in this case, that is fully adequate.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> My exposure to this has been through news stories about organized groups attending local school board meetings demanding that CRT be removed from local schools.  When the board and superintendent respond that there is no such content, nor any plans for any such content, that doesn't seem to satisfy them.  Now we are hearing from more conscientious debaters like Grace that there are plans to introduce it into the curriculum real soon now, as if that justifies the original hysteria.


From a private school, but my kid has brought home nonsense of the CRT sort.  

They honestly believed that it was definitionally impossible to have anti-white racism.  It made me wonder what the school, and I, are doing to develop critical thinking skills.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Spoken like a true modernist. I know you are a modernist at heart but it is funny to see you go at it with your buds.


You're babbling.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

what-happened said:


> No such thing as an American Fuhrer.  Cool headline though - I can see it now in the NYT, Rolling Stone, etc.  I don't know you but it's quite a disturbing take and really minimizes a tragedy.   But it fits into a narrative perpetuated by a group of people that need to market a made up bad guy in a weak attempt to display intellect.  Such nonsense that it's comical.  But this narrative is making people a ton of money.  I'll make sure to let my Jewish friends in on the secret that trumpy is the Fuhrer reincarnate and that they better run for the hills.
> 
> I'm sure you are joking...still doesn't make it less gross.


The American Nazis have never had a better friend in the White House.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I don’t know about crt but the post modernists have been pushing an agenda…we’ve heard about the math, there’s the reading curriculum, and ultimately in boils down to which text books are purchased and under which of the 3 philosophies they are written. I’ve seen it at play in our own school board and even in the dynamics of my kids 2 private schools.  To say there’s nothing going on here and you are crazy if you think there so is the worst form of gaslighting.
> 
> 
> You are just parroting their talking points btw which in the end should put to rest an notion you are a “conservative” which I always found hysterical


I'm still the same conservative I ever was.  The definition was stolen and wandered away from me.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

what-happened said:


> No such thing as an American Fuhrer.  Cool headline though - I can see it now in the NYT, Rolling Stone, etc.  I don't know you but it's quite a disturbing take and really minimizes a tragedy.   But it fits into a narrative perpetuated by a group of people that need to market a made up bad guy in a weak attempt to display intellect.  Such nonsense that it's comical.  But this narrative is making people a ton of money.  I'll make sure to let my Jewish friends in on the secret that trumpy is the Fuhrer reincarnate and that they better run for the hills.
> 
> I'm sure you are joking...still doesn't make it less gross.


Cult of personality. One man demanding pure allegiance to him and him only, anyone who sways is essentially excommunicated and demonized. trump is not many things, a true fascist included, but he uses whatever profits him personally. On the hitler to Berlusconi scale he is somewhere in between, which he is closer to is up for debate.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm still the same conservative I ever was.  The definition was stolen and wandered away from me.


trump is obviously no conservative. The morally corrupt, tariff implementing, debt multiplying, despot ring kissing, liar in chief?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> The American Nazis have never had a better friend in the White House.


As I have said before the skinhead, self-admitted white supremacist I once worked with said as soon as trump came down the escalator and gave that speech announcing his candidacy he spoke his language. “It’s like he was talking to me.”


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Here' a position -- you have no idea what you are talking about whenever you mention CRT.
> 
> Change my mind.


Hound if I were you I’d let somebody else change that diaper


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> "Structural racism" is not the same as "systemic racism".


Both are in your head.  Same.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> The American Nazis have never had a better friend in the White House.


You’re Babbling


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> The American Nazis have never had a better friend in the White House.


How so?


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Cult of personality. One man demanding pure allegiance to him and him only, anyone who sways is essentially excommunicated and demonized. trump is not many things, a true fascist included, but he uses whatever profits him personally. On the hitler to Berlusconi scale he is somewhere in between, which he is closer to is up for debate.


It's really weird what you attribute to this guy.  I've always made fun of people who talked about TDS, but I think it may be a thing.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Cult of personality. One man demanding pure allegiance to him and him only, anyone who sways is essentially excommunicated and demonized. trump is not many things, a true fascist included, but he uses whatever profits him personally. On the hitler to Berlusconi scale he is somewhere in between, which he is closer to is up for debate.


I would give you more credit if you compared  your perception of trump to the Kim dynasty.  The amount of time that trump spends in people's head is astonishing.  I get it from a CNN, MSNBC, NYT perspective.  They need the viewership so they continue with the  narrative that gave them decent ratings in years past.  It's all about the bens for them.  The schtick is getting old though.  

Credibility is lost when you compare someone like trump to someone like hitler.  Sad state of affairs in your neck of the woods if this is the way you frame life in America.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

what-happened said:


> How so?


Did you sleep for those 4 years?


----------



## N00B (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Here' a position -- you have no idea what you are talking about whenever you mention CRT.
> 
> Change my mind.


How can they ‘change your mind’ when you don’t specify your position…. In this specific case, your belief, opinion and reason/justification for holding such a belief.

Wait… that would be a debate.  My bad, I forgot this was trolling.  

Type #1 by the way


----------



## N00B (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Maybe you could explain to hound what he is missing about CRT?


Why don’t you give it a try?


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Cult of personality. One man demanding pure allegiance to him and him only, anyone who sways is essentially excommunicated and demonized. trump is not many things, a true fascist included, but he uses whatever profits him personally. On the hitler to Berlusconi scale he is somewhere in between, which he is closer to is up for debate.


It is continuing even now as the Republican Party splits along the lines of t loyalty at any cost.


----------



## N00B (Jul 13, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I like to think that I can look at something objectively and come to *my* conclusion of right/wrong. That's all I got, *my* conclusion. I can try to explain it and others can agree or not, or just ignore me.


On this forum you’re going to need 99 ‘links please’ on your post in order to get self-determination/interpretation accepted.

Lay interpretation has been lost far beyond the scope of religion for some time.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

N00B said:


> On this forum you’re going to need 99 ‘links please’ on your post in order to get self-determination/interpretation accepted.
> 
> Lay interpretation has been lost far beyond the scope of religion for some time.


Everyone is entitled to his own opinion.  No one is entitled to his own facts.  If you are not willing or able to back up your opinions with facts, people will have a lot of fun with you here.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> From a private school, but my kid has brought home nonsense of the CRT sort.
> 
> They honestly believed that it was definitionally impossible to have anti-white racism.  It made me wonder what the school, and I, are doing to develop critical thinking skills.


My experience in 2 of the private schools my kids have been through was similar.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

dad4 said:


> From a private school, but my kid has brought home nonsense of the CRT sort.
> 
> They honestly believed that it was definitionally impossible to have anti-white racism.  It made me wonder what the school, and I, are doing to develop critical thinking skills.


What do you mean by " CRT sort"?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Coocoo.
> 
> And in this case, that is fully adequate.


“ oh you’ve done it again Magoo you old bean!”


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Did you sleep for those 4 years?


weak.  Next..


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

N00B said:


> How can they ‘change your mind’ when you don’t specify your position…. In this specific case, your belief, opinion and reason/justification for holding such a belief.
> 
> Wait… that would be a debate.  My bad, I forgot this was trolling.
> 
> Type #1 by the way


The funny thing is though he is quite proud of himself and actually fancies himself an intellectual and not a troll. Some people throw on an act just to enjoy trolling.  That’s not him…he seems to be what he presents and lacks awareness he’s nothing more than a troll.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The funny thing is though he is quite proud of himself and actually fancies himself an intellectual and not a troll. Some people throw on an act just to enjoy trolling.  That’s not him…he seems to be what he presents and lacks awareness he’s nothing more than a troll.


Nonsense.  If you can't keep up, just try harder.


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

what-happened said:


> weak.  Next..


You're right.  It's ovefr 6 years now from the "they're rapists" kickoff speech until now where he is keeping hope alive among the suckers.  

Here is a question for you -- if t really is a billionaire as he claims, why is he begging for money to finance his lawsuit against twitter et al?  Even I, who you should know by now is in mo way a t supporter, get multiple emails every day begging for money.  

Have you contributed yet?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I would give you more credit if you compared  your perception of trump to the Kim dynasty.  The amount of time that trump spends in people's head is astonishing.  I get it from a CNN, MSNBC, NYT perspective.  They need the viewership so they continue with the  narrative that gave them decent ratings in years past.  It's all about the bens for them.  The schtick is getting old though.
> 
> Credibility is lost when you compare someone like trump to someone like hitler.  Sad state of affairs in your neck of the woods if this is the way you frame life in America.


It’s no longer trump it’s the continuation of trumpism. The big lie, anti-vax, demonization of any opposition/the press, again, strict allegiance. That and the brain dead zombies that believe he will be reinstated. trump tells them he is lying, “if a poll is bad I say it’s fake, if it’s good I say it’s the most accurate poll ever”, and they still keep believing. Do you?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

N00B said:


> Why don’t you give it a try?


Again? Lol!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I would give you more credit if you compared  your perception of trump to the Kim dynasty.  The amount of time that trump spends in people's head is astonishing.  I get it from a CNN, MSNBC, NYT perspective.  They need the viewership so they continue with the  narrative that gave them decent ratings in years past.  It's all about the bens for them.  The schtick is getting old though.
> 
> Credibility is lost when you compare someone like trump to someone like hitler.  Sad state of affairs in your neck of the woods if this is the way you frame life in America.


Comprehension seems to be an issue with you. Do I need to spell it out for you?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Did you sleep for those 4 years?


Consuming only state run media is probably just as mind numbing.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> You're right.  It's ovefr 6 years now from the "they're rapists" kickoff speech until now where he is keeping hope alive among the suckers.
> 
> Here is a question for you -- if t really is a billionaire as he claims, why is he begging for money to finance his lawsuit against twitter et al?  Even I, who you should know by now is in mo way a t supporter, get multiple emails every day begging for money.
> 
> Have you contributed yet?


This is where you and I differ.  I'm don't care about his personal life.  He's not my moral compass.  Politicians don't guide the way.  Your silly personal attacks are on the same level as his antics.  Trump may keep you up at night, it doesn't keep me up. Career politicians are bozos, con men like trump are bozos.  DC deserved trump.  Now they can't live without him.  Quite funny if you think about it.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Comprehension seems to be an issue with you. Do I need to spell it out for you?


Please do.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> It’s no longer trump it’s the continuation of trumpism. The big lie, anti-vax, demonization of any opposition/the press, again, strict allegiance. That and the brain dead zombies that believe he will be reinstated. trump tells them he is lying, “if a poll is bad I say it’s fake, if it’s good I say it’s the most accurate poll ever”, and they still keep believing. Do you?


You are in so deep.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Consuming only state run media is probably just as mind numbing.


Which media outlet isn't state run??


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Nonsense.  If you can't keep up, just try harder.


Your lack of self awareness is the funniest part of the schtick


----------



## espola (Jul 13, 2021)

what-happened said:


> This is where you and I differ.  I'm don't care about his personal life.  He's not my moral compass.  Politicians don't guide the way.  Your silly personal attacks are on the same level as his antics.  Trump may keep you up at night, it doesn't keep me up. Career politicians are bozos, con men like trump are bozos.  DC deserved trump.  Now they can't live without him.  Quite funny if you think about it.


I didn't even mention his personal life.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

what-happened said:


> It's really weird what you attribute to this guy.  I've always made fun of people who talked about TDS, but I think it may be a thing.


Mic drop! Lol!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Did you sleep for those 4 years?


Didn't he tuck you in before did?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Everyone is entitled to his own opinion.  No one is entitled to his own facts.  If you are not willing or able to back up your opinions with facts, people will have a lot of fun with you here.


I hope you're okay with that.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> You're right.  It's ovefr 6 years now from the "they're rapists" kickoff speech until now where he is keeping hope alive among the suckers.
> 
> Here is a question for you -- if t really is a billionaire as he claims, why is he begging for money to finance his lawsuit against twitter et al?  Even I, who you should know by now is in mo way a t supporter, get multiple emails every day begging for money.
> 
> Have you contributed yet?


A billionaire who uses his own money?  Ha ha ha, no wonder the overnight fed loans stumped you.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Consuming only state run media is probably just as mind numbing.


Probably???


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 13, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't even mention his personal life.


You should.  At least you'll sound smart then.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 14, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Please do.


I said there are a lot of things trump is not, like being a true fascist and that he is somewhere between hitler and berlusconi.

 trump is not many things, a true fascist included, but he uses whatever profits him personally. On the hitler to Berlusconi scale he is somewhere in between,


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 14, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You are in so deep.


I know the trumpist thing is to want bury the past (especially January 6), move on but hold on to the big lie and claim the Donald was right about everything (especially his self-fulfilled prophecies). The things trump made up to cover his tracks bounce around so hard in the bubble of denial that many don’t even know he is the originator of the ideas, they just accept them as reality. Alternative reality.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> I didn't even mention his personal life.


Is that lying eyes? He use to go off script and complain about things of his own invention quite often.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Is that lying eyes? He use to go off script and complain about things of his own invention quite often.


Interesting theory.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Is that lying eyes? He use to go off script and complain about things of his own invention quite often.


Are you complaining?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> Interesting theory.


Right up your alley.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I know the trumpist thing is to want bury the past (especially January 6), move on but hold on to the big lie and claim the Donald was right about everything (especially his self-fulfilled prophecies). The things trump made up to cover his tracks bounce around so hard in the bubble of denial that many don’t even know he is the originator of the ideas, they just accept them as reality. Alternative reality.


Speaking of inventions.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I said there are a lot of things trump is not, like being a true fascist and that he is somewhere between hitler and berlusconi.
> 
> trump is not many things, a true fascist included, but he uses whatever profits him personally. On the hitler to Berlusconi scale he is somewhere in between,


Take your toe off the corner of the scale.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Hound if I were you I’d let somebody else change that diaper


It is pointless to talk to him. You never get him to have a position and defend it. 

The typical response is link?

I get more feedback from my labrador.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 14, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Take your toe off the corner of the scale.


When people compare someone like Trump to hitler you know they are idiots and have no understanding of history. 

But remember it isn't just T. They pretty much call anyone they disagree with a nazi or hitler. It wasn't that long ago the W was called a fascist, nazi and hitler.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> When people compare someone like Trump to hitler you know they are idiots and have no understanding of history.
> 
> But remember it isn't just T. They pretty much call anyone they disagree with a nazi or hitler. It wasn't that long ago the W was called a fascist, nazi and hitler.


T is just about the closest call we have had to Hitler-like demagoguery.  People have actually forgotten how bad the Nixon and Cheney years were. And he is still trying (at least until August 13, right?) 

Just like t, Hitler and his Nazis never won a nationwide popular vote until they had eliminated most of the opposing voters.  Sound familiar?


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It is pointless to talk to him. You never get him to have a position and defend it.
> 
> The typical response is link?
> 
> I get more feedback from my labrador.


I gave you a position and a challenge to change my mind.  Why are you ignoring it?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> I gave you a position and a challenge to change my mind. Why are you ignoring it?


In order to change someone's mind, you need to know what their position on an issue is. What they support about a particular issue, etc. 

You have never outlined what tenants of CRT you support and why? That is how one would take a position. And from that position you and I could have a back and forth. Yet for some reason you are incapable of outlining anything you believe in.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> In order to change someone's mind, you need to know what their position on an issue is. What they support about a particular issue, etc.
> 
> You have never outlined what tenants of CRT you support and why? That is how one would take a position. And from that position you and I could have a back and forth. Yet for some reason you are incapable of outlining anything you believe in.


The position I posted is that whenever you mention CRT you don't know what you are talking about.  You're not making much of an impact on that opinion with this post.

And who exactly are those tenants anyway?


----------



## dad4 (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> What do you mean by " CRT sort"?


It wasn't clear from my post?

It isn't complicated.   Kendi's philosophy uses skin color to assign blame for actions not committed by the person in question.  If your skin color is light, you are eligible to be a racist, but not eligible to be a victim of racism.  If your skin color is dark, the reverse is true.  This philosophy is racist, plain and simple.  Kendi’s works have no place in our schools, at any level.  

This does not mean that Kendi should be banned.  But racism is not something we should teach.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I know the trumpist thing is to want bury the past (especially January 6), move on but hold on to the big lie and claim the Donald was right about everything (especially his self-fulfilled prophecies). The things trump made up to cover his tracks bounce around so hard in the bubble of denial that many don’t even know he is the originator of the ideas, they just accept them as reality. Alternative reality.


Have no idea where you are going with this.  Isn't it funny how state run media has  made "the big lie" part of your daily lexicon.  You make trump sound like a netflix series.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> T is just about the closest call we have had to Hitler-like demagoguery.  People have actually forgotten how bad the Nixon and Cheney years were. And he is still trying (at least until August 13, right?)
> 
> Just like t, Hitler and his Nazis never won a nationwide popular vote until they had eliminated most of the opposing voters.  Sound familiar?


You must be day drinking.  This is the silliest thing ever.  Compare Hitler to Pol Pot..sure...compare Hitler to a one hit con man, silly beyond belief.  But go ahead and believe it.    Just how bad were they Nixon and Cheney years?  So bad that I clearly don't remember what you are talking about.  Certainly not old enough for Nixon..but I can read.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 14, 2021)

what-happened said:


> compare Hitler to a one hit con man, silly beyond belief.


And yet for the past number of years not only do we see ignorant people like espola and husker using those terms, but we see various dems and press in print/broadcase use it. 

Absolutely ridiculous to use those comparisons. Basically it broadcasts to the world...hey I am ignorant regarding history.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It wasn't clear from my post?
> 
> It isn't complicated.   Kendi's philosophy uses skin color to assign blame for actions not committed by the person in question.  If your skin color is light, you are eligible to be a racist, but not eligible to be a victim of racism.  If your skin color is dark, the reverse is true.  This philosophy is racist, plain and simple.  Kendi’s works have no place in our schools, at any level.
> 
> This does not mean that Kendi should be banned.  But racism is not something we should teach.


I feel for you, but that's not CRT.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> And yet for the past number of years not only do we see ignorant people like espola and husker using those terms, but we see various dems and press in print/broadcase use it.
> 
> Absolutely ridiculous to use those comparisons. Basically it broadcasts to the world...hey I am ignorant regarding history.


There are easy ways for you to fix that.

How much do the tenants of CRT pay for rent?  Are there any openings?


----------



## dad4 (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> I feel for you, but that's not CRT.


According to what definition?

At best, CRT is undefined, and therefore inappropriate for schools.

At worst, CRT means "that racist philosophy from Kendi", which is also inappropriate for schools.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> According to what definition?
> 
> At best, CRT is undefined, and therefore inappropriate for schools.
> 
> At worst, CRT means "that racist philosophy from Kendi", which is also inappropriate for schools.


CRT is very well defined.  You can even look it up with the same keyboard that facilitated you making those mistakes.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 14, 2021)

"The reason behind such tyranny came into focus for me when Condolezza Rice, former secretary of state and current director of the Hoover Institution at Stanford, told me she’d shared with her students that the capture of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (9/11’s architect) had felt like “having Erwin Rommel under lock and key.” The blank looks on the faces of her very bright students revealed that they had never heard of WWII’s famous Desert Fox.

Until then, I’d traced the enmity to activists like Jackson and Hannah-Jones. Now, I could see that it also stemmed from students having swapped an education for indoctrination. Those enlisted as social justice warriors had avoided the lessons of history, missed out on refining skills that might have allowed them to judge assertions and denied themselves the insights required to make wise trade-offs."









						My road to cancellation
					

The road to cancellation for Stanford business school educator, successful CEO and entrepreneur Joel Peterson began in 1987. Now it’s time to say enough.




					www.deseret.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 14, 2021)

I’m A Middle School Teacher And See How Critical Race Curriculum Is Creating Racial Hostility In School
					

Providence, RI: Some Students Have Started Calling Me “America” Because I’m White, and Colleagues Accuse Me of Having “White Privilege.”




					legalinsurrection.com


----------



## dad4 (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> CRT is very well defined.  You can even look it up with the same keyboard that facilitated you making those mistakes.


No link?

So you don’t have a clear CRT definition, either.   The term can mean anything from basic history lessons to calls for redistributive justice.

This is why I focus on Kendi.  His work is well defined, racist, and being brought into schools.  Teaching Kendi is no more educationally appropriate than teaching Louis Farrakhan or David Duke.

Redlining and the Tulsa massacre, on the other hand, belong in textbooks, right alongside the Triangle Shirtwaist fire and the Teapot Dome scandal.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 14, 2021)

__





						Inflation Just Hit a 13-Year High. Here’s Why You Should Care | Brad Polumbo
					

Inflation just hit a 13-year high. But why? And, more importantly, why should you care?



					fee.org


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 14, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Have no idea where you are going with this.  Isn't it funny how state run media has  made "the big lie" part of your daily lexicon.  You make trump sound like a netflix series.


Why are republicans that tell the truth about the 2020 presidential election being “canceled” by their party mates?









						Michigan GOP executive director quits under pressure from Trump allies
					

The executive director of the Michigan Republican Party has quit his post just a few months after taking over the top job amid pressure from supporters of former President Trump.Jason Cabel Roe, a …




					thehill.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No link?
> 
> So you don’t have a clear CRT definition, either.   The term can mean anything from basic history lessons to calls for redistributive justice.
> 
> ...


A law school exercise made into a straw man for the right. When “culture warriors” want to deny our culture they need something to point at. The two aren’t related in the real world.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No link?
> 
> So you don’t have a clear CRT definition, either.   The term can mean anything from basic history lessons to calls for redistributive justice.
> 
> ...


Since you mentioned Kendi, I assume you have read this --









						There Is No Debate Over Critical Race Theory
					

Pundits and politicians have created their own definition for the term, and then set about attacking it.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Why are republicans that tell the truth about the 2020 presidential election being “canceled” by their party mates?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How many fled Jonesville rather than sip from the cup?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

Good article about the pros and cons about the risks England is balancing in its COVID exit policy.  England is continuing to remove all restrictions despite rising cases and vaccination breakthoughs and cases may even under some projections surpass the winter wave, but deaths remain on the floor.  Also illustrates the difficulty in working your population into a panic since some seem to be panicking about these breakthrough cases and not wanting to get the virus at all (which once herd immunity went out the window became pretty much impossible).










						England takes 'a fairly extreme stance' to reopen as cases surge
					

Analysis: One health expert described it as "a real-life experiment on an enormous and terrifying scale."




					www.nbcnews.com
				












						United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

Sydney is extending its lockdown after the initial fifth lockdown order and extension were unable to bring down cases to zero.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Good article about the pros and cons about the risks England is balancing in its COVID exit policy.  England is continuing to remove all restrictions despite rising cases and vaccination breakthoughs and cases may even under some projections surpass the winter wave, but deaths remain on the floor.  Also illustrates the difficulty in working your population into a panic since some seem to be panicking about these breakthrough cases and not wanting to get the virus at all (which once herd immunity went out the window became pretty much impossible).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Y9ou seem to have a fixation on the word "panic".  I wonder why.  Is it your safe word?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

member all the praise Korea got for its contact tracing and it was a success story to be modeled by others?  Then they got stuck with 500 cases a day in a long, slow burn.....look at em now.....ooops.  Member?









						South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

Not entirely caused by COVID and the lockdowns, but I'd argue both are a substantial contributor....









						U.S. Drug-Overdose Deaths Soared Nearly 30% in 2020, Driven by Synthetic Opioids
					

A proliferation of fentanyl, along with isolation and stress from the Covid-19 pandemic, drove the tragic increase, experts say.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> Y9ou seem to have a fixation on the word "panic".  I wonder why.  Is it your safe word?


Now that's just dumb, even for you, which is quite an accomplishment.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

California is going to have to decide what to do pretty soon....like the UK a few weeks ago positivity and cases are rising, deaths on the floor.  









						Tracking COVID-19 in California
					

County and statewide data to help people understand the spread of COVID-19.




					covid19.ca.gov


----------



## what-happened (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Why are republicans that tell the truth about the 2020 presidential election being “canceled” by their party mates?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hmm, a politician without a spine.  Interesting.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> California is going to have to decide what to do pretty soon....like the UK a few weeks ago positivity and cases are rising, deaths on the floor.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The current surge is too new to show up in death stats.  Deaths are a lagging indicator averaged over a long time interval. You'll need to wait a good four more weeks if you want to use deaths as your yardstick.

Use hospitalizations.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The current surge is too new to show up in death stats.  Deaths are a lagging indicator averaged over a long time interval. You'll need to wait a good four more weeks if you want to use deaths as your yardstick.
> 
> Use hospitalizations.



True, but we can project out by using the UK hospitalizations.  Rising but no where near even the first wave.  Also remember there tends to be an overcount in hospitalizations since say for example if you are a pregnant woman delivering a child but are found to be COVID positive you will be counted as a hospitalization since you do need to be treated while under their care.









						UK: Daily new hospital admissions for COVID-19
					

Hospital data is available for individual UK nations, and English data by NHS Region. Figures are not comparable between nations as Wales includes suspected COVID-19 patients while the other nations only include confirmed cases.




					ourworldindata.org


----------



## dad4 (Jul 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> True, but we can project out by using the UK hospitalizations.  Rising but no where near even the first wave.  Also remember there tends to be an overcount in hospitalizations since say for example if you are a pregnant woman delivering a child but are found to be COVID positive you will be counted as a hospitalization since you do need to be treated while under their care.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


When you "project out" using UK numbers, how do you adjust for the fact that their vax rate is a lot higher than ours?

You can't just assume it's the same.  The vax rate is the mechanism for the decoupling.  Are you assuming linear?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> When you "project out" using UK numbers, how do you adjust for the fact that their vax rate is a lot higher than ours?
> 
> You can't just assume it's the same.  The vax rate is the mechanism for the decoupling.  Are you assuming linear?


Well the Uk also went with the 1 dose to everyone first strategy as well and are dealing with the added variable of the az vaccine which early indications say is 20% less effective after the second dose than Pfizer (the low j&j uptake may prove to be a blessing in disguise in the us).  Don’t know how this will play out in Alabama (I think you and I agree much more poorly than in California) but California’s rate is over 50% fully vaxxed while the uk is over 60%. Given the level as well of natural immunity, particularly in SoCal, while I agree the numbers won’t be identical they will be similar.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Now that's just dumb, even for you, which is quite an accomplishment.


I'm not panicking because of your criticism.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm not panicking because of your criticism.


Always funny when you show your lack of self awareness. It is after all why we call you Magoo. If only you’d just get those glasses.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Well the Uk also went with the 1 dose to everyone first strategy as well and are dealing with the added variable of the az vaccine which early indications say is 20% less effective after the second dose than Pfizer (the low j&j uptake may prove to be a blessing in disguise in the us).  Don’t know how this will play out in Alabama (I think you and I agree much more poorly than in California) but California’s rate is over 50% fully vaxxed while the uk is over 60%. Given the level as well of natural immunity, particularly in SoCal, while I agree the numbers won’t be identical they will be similar.


The great stupidity in all these is that we are headed to a scenario where the states that should be thinking of restrictive measures won’t do them but the states that are largely protected will (and already we are seeing signs that they’ll pick the low hanging fruit like kids to mess with given cases haven’t even substantially ticked up and California’s opening bid is the back and forth with masks on kids…now settling in a stupid position that masks are required but enforcement will be local). 

The only real hope here for a rational public policy (instead of one driven by politics or panic) is that the uk will provide an endgame strategy test case.  I think officials are at a genuine loss right now for what an off ramp should look like (and there needs to be one as even australia is showing this can’t go on forever and people will be exhausted of it all particularly after the summer of freedom) so they are reverting to their ideological positions.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The great stupidity in all these is that we are headed to a scenario where the states that should be thinking of restrictive measures won’t do them but the states that are largely protected will (and already we are seeing signs that they’ll pick the low hanging fruit like kids to mess with given cases haven’t even substantially ticked up and California’s opening bid is the back and forth with masks on kids…now settling in a stupid position that masks are required but enforcement will be local).
> 
> The only real hope here for a rational public policy (instead of one driven by politics or panic) is that the uk will provide an endgame strategy test case.  I think officials are at a genuine loss right now for what an off ramp should look like (and there needs to be one as even australia is showing this can’t go on forever and people will be exhausted of it all particularly after the summer of freedom) so they are reverting to their ideological positions.


It really is a sticky wicket. I’d venture (nationwide now) 1/3 of the pop is still very frightened and doesn’t want to ever get the virus and 1/3 of the population just wants this to be over. The problem is both those 1/3 are dealing with a fantasy: odds are you will and no it’s not over.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The great stupidity in all these is that we are headed to a scenario where the states that should be thinking of restrictive measures won’t do them but the states that are largely protected will (and already we are seeing signs that they’ll pick the low hanging fruit like kids to mess with given cases haven’t even substantially ticked up and California’s opening bid is the back and forth with masks on kids…now settling in a stupid position that masks are required but enforcement will be local).
> 
> The only real hope here for a rational public policy (instead of one driven by politics or panic) is that the uk will provide an endgame strategy test case.  I think officials are at a genuine loss right now for what an off ramp should look like (and there needs to be one as even australia is showing this can’t go on forever and people will be exhausted of it all particularly after the summer of freedom) so they are reverting to their ideological positions.


"...panic..."


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> "...panic..."


Yes did that deliberately just for S&G's.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

Agree with this....if Trump had done it the media would be screaming bloody murder.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1415440566607826945


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes did that deliberately just for S&G's.


Me, too.


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Agree with this....if Trump had done it the media would be screaming bloody murder.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1415440566607826945


If t had told truth about covid and vaccines he might still be President.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 14, 2021)

school data....not much of measurable difference in school results for masking/distancing and in some cases non masked/no distance actually performed better (not saying no masks ---> better results but if the results were random it's what you'd expect to see).







						{{ 'XM_DASHBOARD' | translate }} | {{ 'GlobalSiteMeta.TITLE_SUFFIX' | translate }}
					






					statsiq.co1.qualtrics.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 14, 2021)

espola said:


> "...panic..."


Seems that term holds a special significance for those who base their political choices on fear, loathing and yes, panic. “Accuse others of that which you are guilty.”


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Harmed by CRT?  Sue the bastards --


----------



## espola (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Seems that term holds a special significance for those who base their political choices on fear, loathing and yes, panic. “Accuse others of that which you are guilty.”


When I read "panic" the image that comes to mind is the crash of the Hindenburg, not people lined in chairs waiting for their shots.

(NB -- she didn't deny it was her safe word)


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I know the trumpist thing is to want bury the past….


Like pulling down statues?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Like pulling down statues?


You have an idea about who erected the statues? When and why? Whose responsibility is it to maintain possibly flawed ideals of the past?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Like pulling down statues?


"We have as little interest in forcing our beliefs and symbols upon you as we do in having the beliefs of others forced upon us," he said from a lectern at Thursday's rally.









						Satanic Temple Protests Ten Commandments Monument With Goat-Headed Statue
					

"It will be a very cold day in hell before an offensive statue will be forced upon us to be permanently erected on the grounds of the Arkansas State Capitol," Republican State Sen. Jason Rapert said.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You have an idea about who erected the statues? When and why? Whose responsibility is it to maintain possibly flawed ideals of the past?


Bury the past just as you said.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 14, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Bury the past just as you said.


So you got nothing.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 14, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So you got nothing.


Are you denying that historical statues were pulled down last summer?  Simple yes or no.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The current surge is too new to show up in death stats.  Deaths are a lagging indicator averaged over a long time interval. You'll need to wait a good four more weeks if you want to use deaths as your yardstick.
> Use hospitalizations.


Funny you should bring up the lagging death stats.  Over the next 4 weeks should be plenty of time for you to peruse death stats from respiratory viruses in the last 50 years.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> When you "project out" using UK numbers, how do you adjust for the fact that their vax rate is a lot higher than ours?
> 
> You can't just assume it's the same.  The vax rate is the mechanism for the decoupling.  Are you assuming linear?


Decoupling you say?  From at least the last 50 years of respiratory virus data while using the faulty PCR test.  What quackery.


----------



## espola (Jul 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Are you denying that historical statues were pulled down last summer?  Simple yes or no.


The "historical statues" are, for the most part, bound for history museums, where schoolchildren can see exhibits describing the history of why the statues were erected, and why they were removed from involuntary view by the [public.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Are you denying that historical statues were pulled down last summer?  Simple yes or no.


“Historical”? In what way?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

espola said:


> The "historical statues" are, for the most part, bound for history museums, where schoolchildren can see exhibits describing the history of why the statues were erected, and why they were removed from involuntary view by the [public.


Hence the Satanic temple statue, lots of history there too! Lol! People with influence pushing their agenda. Whether it be the Ten Commandments, a satanic deity or general lee.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Historical”? In what way?


In the way that history defines it.  As I said, it is a simple yes or no question.  Of which you refuse to answer…..keep proving us right.

Thx!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 15, 2021)

espola said:


> CRT is very well defined.  You can even look it up with the same keyboard that facilitated you making those mistakes.


Don't waste your expertise here. There are experts that could use your guidance.









						What Is Critical Race Theory, and Why Is It Under Attack?
					

Debates about critical race theory are coming to your district, board room, and classroom. Here's what you need to understand about the academic concept—and how it's portrayed in political circles.




					www.edweek.org
				




School boards, superintendents, even principals and teachers are already facing questions about critical race theory, and *there are significant disagreements even among experts about its precise definition as well as how its tenets should inform K-12 policy and practice.*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You have an idea about who erected the statues? When and why? Whose responsibility is it to maintain possibly flawed ideals of the past?


*possibly* flawed ideals of the past?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Don't waste your expertise here. There are experts that could use your guidance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Eh you are already seeing a variation of the BS moving into education. 

A number of districts are teaching math...using equity, talking about how parts of it are racist, etc. 

Some school district around the SF area is utilizing that concept. Same thing popping up around Portland and Seattle. 

It is misguided, it hurts educational outcomes and it is spreading.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 15, 2021)

espola said:


> The "historical statues" are, for the most part, bound for history museums, where schoolchildren can see exhibits describing the history of why the statues were erected, and why they were removed from involuntary view by the [public.


speaking of involuntary.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Eh you are already seeing a variation of the BS moving into education.
> 
> A number of districts are teaching math...using equity, talking about how parts of it are racist, etc.
> 
> ...


Just making the point that even among “experts”, there is disagreement on the definition - and this coming from an education source.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 15, 2021)

For Bruddah bra.....too early to tell based on this data but maybe yet another thing the health experts have duffed.









						Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection?
					

Nearly 40% of new COVID patients were vaccinated - compared to just 1% who had been infected previously.




					www.israelnationalnews.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> In the way that history defines it.  As I said, it is a simple yes or no question.  Of which you refuse to answer…..keep proving us right.
> 
> Thx!


So again nothing and now a declaration of accuracy. Accuracy about what I keep asking but refuse to divulge what you know to be true. Don’t be afraid, step out and make a decision. Go on you can do it!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Don't waste your expertise here. There are experts that could use your guidance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You mean the thing that isn’t actually happening? Lol! You people believe the craziest stuff. When does JFK jr reappear?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So again nothing and now a declaration of accuracy. Accuracy about what I keep asking but refuse to divulge what you know to be true. Don’t be afraid, step out and make a decision. Go on you can do it!


You have yet to answer a simple yes or no question. Until then, your dribble isn’t with my time. 

Good day!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Don't waste your expertise here. There are experts that could use your guidance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Ed weak eh? Maybe research your source there. Lol!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> You have yet to answer a simple yes or no question. Until then, your dribble isn’t with my time.
> 
> Good day!


Don’t pout, just tell me what statues were removed that you feel hold historical value and why they hold that value.  (in a vernacular you might comprehend) I asked first!


----------



## dad4 (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You mean the thing that isn’t actually happening? Lol! You people believe the craziest stuff. When does JFK jr reappear?


Link to the American Federation of Teachers resolution endorsing “anti-racism”, among other things.   “anti-racism” is Kendi‘s name for his racist philosophy.





__





						CONFRONTING RACISM AND IN SUPPORT OF BLACK LIVES
					

WHEREAS, foundational to our work must be the belief in justice for all, and that the fight for fairness, justice and dignity must encompass everyone—regardless of race, religion, gender, language, national origin or sexual orientation; and




					www.aft.org
				




That’s some serious institutional support for something that is not happening.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 15, 2021)

Dissent: Harvard Medical School Professor Exposes Fauci's 'Triple Stumble'
					

"No Doubt About That"?




					townhall.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Link to the American Federation of Teachers resolution endorsing “anti-racism”, among other things.   “anti-racism” is Kendi‘s name for his racist philosophy.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And? And seems you have lost the scent. What does that have to do with CRT?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Dissent: Harvard Medical School Professor Exposes Fauci's 'Triple Stumble'
> 
> 
> "No Doubt About That"?
> ...


Townhall lol! Talk about seeking a friendly venue.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Don’t pout, just tell me what statues were removed that you feel hold historical value and why they hold that value.  (in a vernacular you might comprehend) I asked first!


I’ll start with Hans Christian Heg.  He was an anti-slavery radical from Minnesota.  He travelled to Kansas to launch terrorist attacks against the pro-slavery militias.  Later he volunteered for the civil war, fighting on the union side until he was killed.  

His statue was torn down by leftist radicals.  Not sure why.  To me, he sounds like a reasonable guy to keep on his pedestal.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I’ll start with Hans Christian Heg.  He was an anti-slavery radical from Minnesota.  He travelled to Kansas to launch terrorist attacks against the pro-slavery militias.  Later he volunteered for the civil war, fighting on the union side until he was killed.
> 
> His statue was torn down by leftist radicals.  Not sure why.  To me, he sounds like a reasonable guy to keep on his pedestal.


Yeah the Columbus one was a bit odd as well.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> And? And seems you have lost the scent. What does that have to do with CRT?


It has to do with Kendiism, as I explained: the document explicitly endorses teaching Kendi's philosophy.  They refer to it by name.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Yeah the Columbus one was a bit odd as well.


So that’s a “YES”?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So that’s a “YES”?


Your turn.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Your turn.


- York in Portland
- You already mentioned Columbus (an indirect admission of your hypocrisy )
- Robert E Lee (love or hate it is part of our countries history)
- Juan de Onate
- Francis Scott Key


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> That’s some serious institutional support for something that is not happening.


Funny how it works. 

We see example after example of it in the real world. 

But then there will be an article saying hey it isn't happening and people like husker and espola will dutifully repeat that lie and believe it to be true.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It has to do with Kendiism, as I explained: the document explicitly endorses teaching Kendi's philosophy. They refer to it by name.


By most standards that should be game, set, match. 

Or a mic drop. 

And yet husker and co continue to not look at the facts.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Townhall lol! Talk about seeking a friendly venue.


Don't pout.  Just take a deep breath and tell us what your problem is.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 15, 2021)

LA County just installed a mandatory indoor mask mandate that goes into effect Saturday.  I'll be shopping across the county line in Ventura from now on because I have no desire to partake in the stupidity, but it's only a matter of time, as dad4 predicted, that it will happen in other counties if not the whole state.  They cite the "alarming rise in cases" to justify it.  Is alarming the same thing as panicky?

In any case, if LA County is already back at masks who here wants to take bets they won't end with that?  It took 2 weeks to go from recommend to mandatory and the curve will continue to increase.  What's next?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 15, 2021)

So much for remdesivir....Fauci is batting a 1000









						Remdesivir, Survival, and Length of Hospital Stay in US Veterans With COVID-19
					

This cohort study assesses the association of remdesivir treatment with 30-day survival and length of hospital stay among US veterans hospitalized with COVID-19 between May and October 2020.




					jamanetwork.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You mean the thing that isn’t actually happening? Lol! You people believe the craziest stuff. When does JFK jr reappear?


But more to the point of your fallacious post

The history of crime and violence among blacks contradicts many widespread beliefs about the causes of that crime and violence. Poverty, unemployment, and racial discrimination are frequently listed among the prime "root causes" of riots and other criminality among blacks. *Many are so convinced of this that they see no reason to examine the factual historical record.

Crime among black Americans, like crime among white Americans, was declining for years prior to the decade of the 1960s, with its landmark civil rights laws and its "war on poverty" programs.* But it was during the 1960s that crime rates began skyrocketing among both blacks and whites, and it was precisely after the historic civil rights laws were passed that blacks began rioting in cities across the country. *Within days of the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the first of hundreds of riots that would rack cities across the country over the next four years began in the black neighborhood of Los Angeles known as Watts. These riots did not begin where blacks were poorest or most oppressed, which was still the South. Indeed, Southern cities seldom suffered the riots that struck many Northern cities and devastated many black neighborhoods in those cities. Thirty-four people died in the Watts riots but 43 were killed when blacks rioted in Detroit two years later.

Although Detroit had the worst of the riots that struck virtually every Northern city during the latter part of the 1960s, the poverty rate among Detroit's black population was only half of that of blacks nationwide, its homeownership rate among blacks was the highest in the country, and its unemployment rate was 3.4 percent— lower than that among whites nationwide. Detroit did not have a massive riot because it was an economic disaster area. It became an economic disaster area after the riots, as did black neighborhoods in many other cities across the country. Moreover, riot-torn neighborhoods in these cities remained disaster areas for decades thereafter, as businesses became reluctant to locate there, reducing access to both jobs and places to shop, and both black and white middle class people left for the suburbs.

Whatever the causes of these waves of riots, whether as background factors or as immediate precipitating incidents, they were clearly not the factors that have been repeated endlessly but fallaciously. The worse ghetto riots occurred precisely at those times and places where the things that were supposed to prevent riots were most prevalent, including officials promoting welfare state policies and restraining the police. Conversely, riots were least destructive, and sometimes non-existent, in places and times where officials took an opposite view.
As already noted, Southern cities were far less often struck by urban riots. Among Northern cities, Chicago was one of the cities least affected by ghetto riots. It had no such riots in 1967. The following year, when riots swept across the country in the wake of the assassination of Martin Luther King, Chicago's Mayor Richard J. Daley issued a highly publicized "shoot to kill" order to his police that was denounced by many, but deaths from riots in Chicago were a fraction of what they were in cities like Detroit where more humane and sympathetic expressions were used and the police were restrained. Nationally, the most urban ghetto riots occurred during the Johnson administration but there was not one major urban riot during the entire eight years of the Reagan administration. Yet such hard facts did not make a dent in fashionable beliefs, then or now. Both politicians and activists have a vested interest in racial fallacies, which attribute the advancement of blacks to politicians and activists, and blame others for the retrogressions.*


----------



## dad4 (Jul 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> LA County just installed a mandatory indoor mask mandate that goes into effect Saturday.  I'll be shopping across the county line in Ventura from now on because I have no desire to partake in the stupidity, but it's only a matter of time, as dad4 predicted, that it will happen in other counties if not the whole state.  They cite the "alarming rise in cases" to justify it.  Is alarming the same thing as panicky?
> 
> In any case, if LA County is already back at masks who here wants to take bets they won't end with that?  It took 2 weeks to go from recommend to mandatory and the curve will continue to increase.  What's next?


Take a look at hospitalizations before you go off on how stupid you think it is.

Deaths and hospitalizations are decoupled from cases, but only for the vaccinated.  LA still has enough unvaccinated adults to cause a significant spike in deaths.  

For scale, we currently have about 280 deaths per day from covid.  That represents about 2% of the daily confirmed case rate from 2-4 weeks ago.  (Deaths are a lagging indicator, so compare to past case rates.)

The US also has around 20,000 people hospitalized.  That is about twice the daily confirmed case rate from 2 weeks ago.

LA is currently averaging 1000 confirmed cases.  Using those ratios, that translates to around 20 deaths per day and around 2000 hospitalizations.  (Not now.  In about 2-4 weeks.)

LA is also doubling every 10 days or so.  Keep it up, and you’ll be at 8,000 daily confirmed cases in 6 weeks.  And, a few weeks later, 16,000 hospitalized and 160 deaths per day.  That’s about twice as many beds as LA currently has available.

Perhaps your health department doesn’t want to keep on that path.  It sounds unpleasant.

You might want to get your Ventura shopping trip out of the way now.  Their vax rate is about the same as LA, and they are doubling every 12 days.   Call it 3-4 weeks behind LA.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Take a look at hospitalizations before you go off on how stupid you think it is.
> 
> Deaths and hospitalizations are decoupled from cases, but only for the vaccinated.  LA still has enough unvaccinated adults to cause a significant spike in deaths.
> 
> ...


A. Vc didn’t install a mask mandate until the state did and then only did it kicking and screaming. Same when they did it for kids and schools getting waivers. 
B. The unvaccinated have had ample opportunity to get vaccinated. I should not be inconvenienced for their recklessness
C. The masks didn’t stop the winter wave. You yourself have conceded that (assuming arguendo now) masks stopped the initial waves in Asia that they aren’t as effective as they once were hence the problems in India, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Thailand.
D. So in 2 weeks the curve will still be up and la county will be back at the well. 
E. If they shut down indoor dining again you’ll be the first to say it’s necessary claiming the data now supports it
F. I’ll be the first to then say “told you so that it was the way it would play out”
G. The restrictions imho should be reserved only for places and times when the icus are new capacity and hospitals are near collapse (which so far has really only happened in the 3rd world but I could see places like Alabama getting there)
F. You’re all going to get it or at a minimum be exposed to it and asymptomatic. It’s inevitable. This is just postponing the inevitable
G. Seroprevalence in la pre vaccine take off was just under 50%….discount to 40% if you like for selection bias. See article above re natural immunity.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A. Vc didn’t install a mask mandate until the state did and then only did it kicking and screaming. Same when they did it for kids and schools getting waivers.
> B. The unvaccinated have had ample opportunity to get vaccinated. I should not be inconvenienced for their recklessness
> C. The masks didn’t stop the winter wave. You yourself have conceded that (assuming arguendo now) masks stopped the initial waves in Asia that they aren’t as effective as they once were hence the problems in India, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Thailand.
> D. So in 2 weeks the curve will still be up and la county will be back at the well.
> ...


Pretty much.  You will fight tooth and nail to block the minor inconveniences, like masks or vaccine passports.  Then you’ll complain like heck if/when the resulting surge triggers major inconveniences, like business and school closures.  

It’s the same as last time.  But there are fewer people left unvaccinated, so it will be smaller.  We also might get lucky and see a vaccination surge following the hospitalization surge.  Or not.  I am watching MS/AR/MO vax rates to try to predict that one.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Pretty much.  You will fight tooth and nail to block the minor inconveniences, like masks or vaccine passports.  Then you’ll complain like heck if/when the resulting surge triggers major inconveniences, like business and school closures.
> 
> It’s the same as last time.  But there are fewer people left unvaccinated, so it will be smaller.  We also might get lucky and see a vaccination surge following the hospitalization surge.  Or not.  I am watching MS/AR/MO vax rates to try to predict that one.


No I’ll complain like heck because masks didn’t do very much to begin with and you have even conceded they are now less effective against the delta so they’ll do even less. Then you’ll be back at the well citing new data which I will laugh and say was always inevitable the moment you contemplated going down the restrictions road because it’s never going to be enough.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jul 15, 2021)

espola said:


> I already gave you the first line.  You responded by calling me names, dulling my enthusiasm to proceed further.
> 
> I don't have the inclination or the time right now to condense more than 5 centuries of European history into a single paragraph.  I'll have more time next week (catsitting for my daughter (I hope she has A/C))


Is cat sitting a thing? It’s more like VRBO.


----------



## espola (Jul 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Eh you are already seeing a variation of the BS moving into education.
> 
> A number of districts are teaching math...using equity, talking about how parts of it are racist, etc.
> 
> ...


"Hurts educational outcomes" sounds interesting.  Do you have some data?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Take a look at hospitalizations before you go off on how stupid you think it is.
> 
> Deaths and hospitalizations are decoupled from cases, but only for the vaccinated.  LA still has enough unvaccinated adults to cause a significant spike in deaths.
> 
> ...


Ps. La co is now just over 60% fully vaxxed and just under 70% partially vaxxed plus somewhere in the neighborhood of 40–50% natural immunity.


----------



## espola (Jul 15, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Just making the point that even among “experts”, there is disagreement on the definition - and this coming from an education source.


So you missed the part where they gave the proper definition?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> - York in Portland
> - You already mentioned Columbus (an indirect admission of your hypocrisy )
> - Robert E Lee (love or hate it is part of our countries history)
> - Juan de Onate
> - Francis Scott Key


Hypocrisy? Are you putting something on me that you are assuming? I simply asked which historic statues and what made them historic.


----------



## espola (Jul 15, 2021)

dad4 said:


> It has to do with Kendiism, as I explained: the document explicitly endorses teaching Kendi's philosophy.  They refer to it by name.


Kendism?

Google says 
Did you mean:
*kantism*
*kenism*
*kendis*
*hinduism*


----------



## espola (Jul 15, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> Is cat sitting a thing? It’s more like VRBO.


I've done it before, and one of her cats used to be mine (as much as any cat can belong to a human).

The first part of VRBO is Vacation, and Sacramento is not my idea of a vacation paradise.  

On the drive today I was feeling good about the light traffic (except south of Corona) until I got close to Santa Barbara.  I moved to Oxnard in 1970 and I have traveled that stretch many times over the years,.  After 50 years, it is still under construction.


----------



## espola (Jul 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> - York in Portland
> - You already mentioned Columbus (an indirect admission of your hypocrisy )
> - Robert E Lee (love or hate it is part of our countries history)
> - Juan de Onate
> - Francis Scott Key


Which one of those is not like the others?


----------



## watfly (Jul 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Kendism?
> 
> Google says
> Did you mean:
> ...


Maybe Jen Psaki already flagged Kendism for Google.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 15, 2021)

espola said:


> So you missed the part where they gave the proper definition?


Ha! The multi-aliased, misanthropic troll already dismissed them as a source. How can they possibly give the proper definition?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 15, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Hypocrisy? Are you putting something on me that you are assuming? I simply asked which historic statues and what made them historic.


Do I need to dig up the past for you?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 15, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So much for remdesivir....Fauci is batting a 1000
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think the issue is ...
Is the drug used prior to hospitalization or used after.

The proponents claim it helps avoid serious issues.

So I would like to see studies of people with Covid who are given it prior to having to go to the hospital.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 15, 2021)

espola said:


> "Hurts educational outcomes" sounds interesting.  Do you have some data?


Yeah when you focus on race vs teaching math the kids will learn less. Or is that hard for you to understand?


----------



## espola (Jul 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yeah when you focus on race vs teaching math the kids will learn less. Or is that hard for you to understand?


I see.  Pure conjecture.


----------



## espola (Jul 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I think the issue is ...
> Is the drug used prior to hospitalization or used after.
> 
> The proponents claim it helps avoid serious issues.
> ...


Maybe you should call for an audit.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 15, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Do I need to dig up the past for you?


Yes please.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I think the issue is ...
> Is the drug used prior to hospitalization or used after.
> 
> The proponents claim it helps avoid serious issues.
> ...


The issue with this drug is that unlike ivermectin or the antibodies it must be monitored in a care (usually hospital) setting

It’s also very expensive so they are only giving it to the very sick


----------



## N00B (Jul 15, 2021)

espola said:


> Kendism?
> 
> Google says
> Did you mean:
> ...


Google correctly identified prevalent and readily identifiable-ism’s.  I think that’s the point of a search engine.

Now, find a definition of -ism or the common defining features of such.  (I hear there are some reference materials available for search with the keyword ‘Oxford’)

Then, explain your one word question (Kendism?) in the form of a thesis.  Be prepared to defend your position with ‘link please’.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 15, 2021)

From the chatter online today we have begun the official “omg the vaccines aren’t working” panic phase of covid.  Member when they said we needed restrictions to slow the spread…14 days…then 30?  When they said we needed to keep the hospitals from collapsing?  Until we could develop some treatments?  Until we could bring down the curve?  Until the vaccines rolled out?  Member?


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Had a family picnic at the beach for the 4th.  Was an uncle in law there who has served in the uniformed public health corp and was posted to nih in the early 2000s. He didn’t know anything about how things went down in the pandemic but did have interesting Fauci gossip. Apparently they called him Napoleon and he had a reputation for being grouchy and he had a chip on his shoulder about how he was criticized after the aids crisis.


Came back to the forums for the college recruitment stuff.  Probably a bad idea.  Well maybe.  Threads like this one.  My God. So, just to clarify, every career scientist at NIH who has run a lab and then gone into administration acts like a dictator and is grouchy.  Especially the program directors, but don't need to go there. It's just the person you have to become when you run a lab. Comes with the territory.  Once they ditch the lab coat some manage the transition and some don't.  But if they manage the transition it can work, because they tend to not be a political kiss ass and they are less prone to take shit from idiots. Fauci is not perfect, but he is pretty good overall given the tightrope he needed to walk during summer/fall 2020.

Actually, E's Climate and Weather thread on this site is still to me one of the most remarkable of its kind I've come across.  Used to play with posters who tuned into the spreadsheet cowboys.  Been awhile but it was fun.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The issue with this drug is that unlike ivermectin or the antibodies it must be monitored in a care (usually hospital) setting
> 
> It’s also very expensive so they are only giving it to the very sick


Being expensive is the key word combination.  

I guess i don't understand how many can simply dismiss the impact that big pharma has on decision making.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Take a look at hospitalizations before you go off on how stupid you think it is.
> 
> Deaths and hospitalizations are decoupled from cases, but only for the vaccinated.  LA still has enough unvaccinated adults to cause a significant spike in deaths.


Why would deaths and hospitalizations be decoupled from cases for the vaccinated only, when the survival rate was above 98% plus pre-vax?  It's not stupid.  It's tyranny.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Pretty much.  You will fight tooth and nail to block the minor inconveniences, like masks or vaccine passports.  Then you’ll complain like heck if/when the resulting surge triggers major inconveniences, like business and school closures.
> 
> It’s the same as last time.  But there are fewer people left unvaccinated, so it will be smaller.  We also might get lucky and see a vaccination surge following the hospitalization surge.  Or not.  I am watching MS/AR/MO vax rates to try to predict that one.


Your predictions are based on the *PCR test that was never meant to detect the presence of the corona virus or infection.*  The PCR test lacks the ability to time stamp corona genetic sequences that could be decades old.  So as long as you ignore that fact, your Quackery remains.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No I’ll complain like heck because masks didn’t do very much to begin with and you have even conceded they are now less effective against the delta so they’ll do even less. Then you’ll be back at the well citing new data which I will laugh and say was always inevitable the moment you contemplated going down the restrictions road because it’s never going to be enough.


Should I queue Dad's mask mea culpa?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 16, 2021)

espola said:


> I see.  Pure conjecture.


Not too bright I see. But then again you have shown that time and time again on these forums.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

espola said:


> I see.  Pure conjecture.


Me too.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

espola said:


> So you missed the part where they gave the proper definition?


In addition to its own evils during its own time, slavery has generated fallacies that endure into our time, confusing many issues today. The distinguished historian Daniel J. Boorstin said something that was well known to many scholars, but utterly unknown to many among the general public, when he pointed out that, with the mass transportation of Africans in bondage to the Western Hemisphere, "Now for the first time in Western history, the status of slave coincided with a difference of race."  

For centuries before, Europeans had enslaved other Europeans, Asians had enslaved other Asians and Africans had enslaved other Africans. Only in the modern era was there both the wealth and the technology to organize the mass transportation of people across an ocean, either as slaves or as free immigrants. Nor were Europeans the only ones to transport masses of enslaved human beings from one continent to another. North Africa's Barbary Coast pirates alone captured and enslaved at least a million Europeans from 1500 to 1800, carrying more Europeans into bondage in North Africa than there were Africans brought in bondage to the United States and the American colonies from which it was formed.  Moreover, Europeans were still being bought and sold in the slave markets of the Islamic world, decades after blacks were freed in the United States.  

Slavery was a virtually universal institution in countries around the world and for thousands of years of recorded history. Indeed, archaeological evidence suggests that human beings learned to enslave other human beings before they learned to write. One of the many fallacies about slavery— that it was based on race— is sustained by the simple but pervasive practice of focussing exclusively on the enslavement of Africans by Europeans, as if this were something unique, rather than part of a much larger worldwide human tragedy. Racism grew out of African slavery, especially in the United States, but slavery preceded racism by thousands of years. Europeans enslaved other Europeans for centuries before the first African was brought in bondage to the Western Hemisphere.  

The brutal reality is that vulnerable people were usually taken advantage of wherever it was feasible to take advantage of them, regardless of what race or color they were. The rise of nation states put armies and navies around some people but it was not equally possible to establish nation states in all parts of the world, partly because of geography. Where large populations had no army or navy to protect them, they fell prey to enslavers, whether in Africa, Asia or along unguarded stretches of European coastlines where Barbary pirates made raids, usually around the Mediterranean but sometimes as far away as England or Iceland. The enormous concentration of writings and of the media in general on slavery in the Western Hemisphere, or in the United States in particular, creates a false picture which makes it difficult to understand even the history of slavery in the United States.  

While slavery was readily accepted as a fact of life all around the world for centuries on end, there was never a time when slavery could get that kind of universal acceptance in the United States, founded on a principle of freedom, with which slavery was in such obvious and irreconcilable contradiction. Slavery was under ideological attack from the first draft of the Declaration of Independence and a number of Northern states banned slavery in the years immediately following independence. Even in the South, the ideology of freedom was not wholly without effect, as tens of thousands of slaves were voluntarily set free after Americans gained their own freedom from England.  

Most Southern slaveowners, however, were determined to hold on to their slaves and, for that, some defense was necessary against the ideology of freedom and the widespread criticisms of slavery that were its corollary. Racism became that defense. Such a defense was unnecessary in unfree societies, such as that of Brazil, which imported more slaves than the United States but developed no such virulent levels of racism as that of the American South. Outside Western civilization, no defense of slavery was necessary, as non-Western societies saw nothing wrong with it. Nor was there any serious challenge to slavery in Western civilization prior to the eighteenth century.

Racism became a justification of slavery in a society where it could not be justified otherwise— and centuries of racism did not suddenly vanish with the abolition of the slavery that gave rise to it. But the direction of causation was the direct opposite of what is assumed by those who depict the enslavement of Africans as being a result of racism. Nevertheless, racism became one of the enduring legacies of slavery. How much of it continues to endure and in what strength today is something that can be examined and debated. But many other things that are considered to be legacies of slavery can be tested empirically, rather than being accepted as foregone conclusions.  
Mr. Sowell, _Economic Facts and Fallacies_


----------



## whatithink (Jul 16, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Why would deaths and hospitalizations be decoupled from cases for the vaccinated only, when the survival rate was above 98% plus pre-vax?  It's not stupid.  It's tyranny.


Are you getting the 98% from this source, or similar?









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 52,588,544 Cases and 1,292,109 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




I ask because, obv. a survival rate of 98% sounds great, but based on that it still means 4 million dead. So if vaccines can move the needle to a survival rate of 98.5% or 99% or 99.5%, you are talking about millions of lives.

To me, 98% sounds great, but saving millions of lives sounds better.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 16, 2021)

Thread.  The UK is now nearing the winter wave peak and may even surpass that.  The data out of Israel seems to confirm that the vaccines aren't perfect at stopping infections.  Most of the infections are occurring in the vaccinated.  The idea that the vaccine---> magically make this go away is over.  It's time for a serious discussion for what an off ramp looks like.  Either perpetual lockdowns for the next several years (knowing that you'll have to cope with the Australia-style lockdown fatigue...some areas are on their 5th lockdown) while we focus on boosters trying to race against ever evolving variants or we do what the UK is trying (knowing that when you remove the restrictions there will be some deaths) and learn to live with it.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1416073099158691842


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 16, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Are you getting the 98% from this source, or similar?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The IFR for this thing at the beginning of the pandemic was something like .6%.  Pre vaccine it had fallen to somewhere like .2%.  Post vaccines the measure hasn't been calculated yet but given the continuing fallen IFR it's somewhere less than .1% the equivalent of bad flu in the vaccinated.  The issue is it's more contagious, and the delta is more contagious, so more people get it than the flu.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Are you getting the 98% from this source, or similar?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It always "sounds" better when you make a lot of assumptions while ignoring the facts.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The IFR for this thing at the beginning of the pandemic was something like .6%.  Pre vaccine it had fallen to somewhere like .2%.  Post vaccines the measure hasn't been calculated yet but given the continuing fallen IFR it's somewhere less than .1% the equivalent of bad flu in the vaccinated.  The issue is it's more contagious, and the delta is more contagious, so more people get it than the flu.


Is it fair to compare it to the flu from a deaths perspective? From 2010 US flu deaths range from 12K to 60K per year. Corona is 600K+ to date in 18 months. 

My comment related to the 98% from Bru and I was wondering what the source of that was, i.e. context.

I struggle with the cold evaluation approach based on %s. I get why its done, but it seems callous to me during a pandemic and can, to my view, mask the scale of the potential impact. If one person has a disease and they have a 98% or higher survivability rate, then that's one thing, but when tens of millions have it, then we are looking at millions of lost lives potentially.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The IFR for this thing at the beginning of the pandemic was something like .6%.  Pre vaccine it had fallen to somewhere like .2%.  Post vaccines the measure hasn't been calculated yet but given the continuing fallen IFR it's somewhere less than .1% the equivalent of bad flu in the vaccinated.  The issue is it's more contagious, and the delta is more contagious, so more people get it than the flu.


Virus's are a part of the evolutionary process.  Why wouldn't the Delta be more contagious?  And thus why wouldn't our immune systems be more prepared and resistant?


----------



## whatithink (Jul 16, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> It always "sounds" better when you make a lot of assumptions while ignoring the facts.


I like the specificity of your reply. I'm surprised you didn't copy and paste someone else's dissertation to validate yourself.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Is it fair to compare it to the flu from a deaths perspective? From 2010 US flu deaths range from 12K to 60K per year. Corona is 600K+ to date in 18 months.
> 
> My comment related to the 98% from Bru and I was wondering what the source of that was, i.e. context.
> 
> I struggle with the cold evaluation approach based on %s. I get why its done, but it seems callous to me during a pandemic and can, to my view, mask the scale of the potential impact. If one person has a disease and they have a 98% or higher survivability rate, then that's one thing, but when tens of millions have it, then we are looking at millions of lost lives potentially.


CDC is the source of the "98%".  And that is for older high risk folks.  Younger folks are nearly 100%.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 16, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Is it fair to compare it to the flu from a deaths perspective? From 2010 US flu deaths range from 12K to 60K per year. Corona is 600K+ to date in 18 months.
> 
> My comment related to the 98% from Bru and I was wondering what the source of that was, i.e. context.
> 
> I struggle with the cold evaluation approach based on %s. I get why its done, but it seems callous to me during a pandemic and can, to my view, mask the scale of the potential impact. If one person has a disease and they have a 98% or higher survivability rate, then that's one thing, but when tens of millions have it, then we are looking at millions of lost lives potentially.


I’d agree with this pre vaccine. But post vaccine the numbers will be more in line (barring yet another breakthrough) with a bad flu season so the analysis has to updated to reflect that reality. Also: a. Given the level of breakthrough (as outlined in the gummy thread) and b. That the world won’t even be initially vaxxed until 2022 at the earliest, the analysis has to reflect that this is now endemic and won’t be going anywhere for at least a few years to come.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I like the specificity of your reply. I'm surprised you didn't copy and paste someone else's dissertation to validate yourself.


Do you like to read?


----------



## whatithink (Jul 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I’d agree with this pre vaccine. But post vaccine the numbers will be more in line (barring yet another breakthrough) with a bad flu season so the analysis has to updated to reflect that reality. Also: a. Given the level of breakthrough (as outlined in the gummy thread) and b. That the world won’t even be initially vaxxed until 2022 at the earliest, the analysis has to reflect that this is now endemic and won’t be going anywhere for at least a few years to come.


Sure, agreed. The limited data I saw published - the data Pfizer was trying to use to sell a booster (of their profits for sure) shot - was that the highest risk (age wise) was where the overwhelming majority of deaths were. The "problem" with the data was that it didn't have or provide details into how high risk those people were anyway despite having been vaccinated.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 16, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Do you like to read?


All you had to say was from the CDC, as you subsequently did. 

And I love to read.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

whatithink said:


> All you had to say was from the CDC, as you subsequently did.
> 
> And I love to read.


Me too.  I assumed the CDC data was widely known by now since it's been around for decades.  So I started off with assuming that you already knew what I've known and experienced as well.  Corona is just a common cold virus.  The vaccines have nullified conversations about therapies as if they are a silver bullet.  They are not.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 16, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Thread.  The UK is now nearing the winter wave peak and may even surpass that.  The data out of Israel seems to confirm that the vaccines aren't perfect at stopping infections.  Most of the infections are occurring in the vaccinated.  The idea that the vaccine---> magically make this go away is over.  It's time for a serious discussion for what an off ramp looks like.  Either perpetual lockdowns for the next several years (knowing that you'll have to cope with the Australia-style lockdown fatigue...some areas are on their 5th lockdown) while we focus on boosters trying to race against ever evolving variants or we do what the UK is trying (knowing that when you remove the restrictions there will be some deaths) and learn to live with it.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1416073099158691842


Do "Gummi's" retweet of the table allow one to calculate something like an odds-risk ratio or related statistic that is more quantitative than "no longer effective"?  Those real treatments of the data are out there.  Variants and persistence of acquired immunity are real issues, and this was always going to be a bumpy ride.  But maybe a bit premature for "oh well, screw it".


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 16, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Do "Gummi's" retweet of the table allow one to calculate something like an odds-risk ratio or related statistic that is more quantitative than "no longer effective"?  Those real treatments of the data are out there.  Variants and persistence of acquired immunity are real issues, and this was always going to be a bumpy ride.  But maybe a bit premature for "oh well, screw it".


I'd agree that it's a bit premature for "oh well, screw it"...but we really need to be thinking and discussing of an off ramp here.  Otherwise what will happen is that we'll back into a situation like California did previously where the restrictions were a. ruinous, b. didn't stop a serious peak from happening, c. didn't please anyone.  The deal was 2 weeks/then 30/then until treatments/then until vaccines but the bargain keeps getting altered.  So rather than reflexively go back (remember dad 4 said masks might be needed again this fall....we are already there in July) to the low hanging fruit (masks) which did little the first time around will do do even less this time around (if you accept dad4's argument masks helped in Asia, they didn't do that great this time around against the delta) and you end up shutting down schools, we as a society need to have a reasonable discussion over what an off ramp looks like because the curve will look something like the UK's and we need to be prepared for that.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 16, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 16, 2021)




----------



## watfly (Jul 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 11112


That's really apples and oranges.  The first two headlines are about the Trump vaccine and the third is about the Biden vaccine.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 16, 2021)




----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 11114


Lately, I haven't been following the COVID numbers - @dad4, how long before Santa Clara County says regarding this, "Oh yeah? Hold my beer."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 16, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 11114


Hah!
It's poetry in motion
She turned her tender eyes to me
As deep as any ocean
As sweet as any harmony
Mmm - but she blinded me with science
"She blinded me with science!"
And failed me in biology
Yeah-eah!


----------



## dad4 (Jul 16, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Lately, I haven't been following the COVID numbers - @dad4, how long before Santa Clara County says regarding this, "Oh yeah? Hold my beer."


I don’t do political tea leaves very well.

Best bet is they will act when beds or ICU beds get short.  Now at 16 used and 100 available.  So, 2.5 doublings before it gets tight.  Less if we take LA patients, which we will.

Problem is, our doubling time is pretty short right now.  So, 3 weeks?  

I haven’t tried to predict peak height for us.  Will be kind of low, due to the vax rate.  That may make the mask phase short.


----------



## N00B (Jul 16, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Are you getting the 98% from this source, or similar?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The 98% survival rate needs PCR confirmed cases for its statistical basis.

*smirks*… couldn’t help it.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 17, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 11112





watfly said:


> That's really apples and oranges.  The first two headlines are about the Trump vaccine and the third is about the Biden vaccine.


Here are two comments that succinctly demonstrate the media’s laughably low level of self-awareness that they manage to combine with an undeservedly high a level of arrogance.

I love the last headline. It’s just so, “Now”. We need CNN to tell us how to talk to people. How about showing them the respect you always have?


----------



## espola (Jul 17, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 17, 2021)

N00B said:


> The 98% survival rate needs PCR confirmed cases for its statistical basis.
> 
> *smirks*… couldn’t help it.


The survival rate in my house, pre-vax, is 100%.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 17, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11115


The survival rate in my house, pre-vax, is 100%.  Ages 17-55, two males, two females.  Good diet, regular exercise.


----------



## espola (Jul 17, 2021)

espola said:


> I've done it before, and one of her cats used to be mine (as much as any cat can belong to a human).
> 
> The first part of VRBO is Vacation, and Sacramento is not my idea of a vacation paradise.
> 
> On the drive today I was feeling good about the light traffic (except south of Corona) until I got close to Santa Barbara.  I moved to Oxnard in 1970 and I have traveled that stretch many times over the years,.  After 50 years, it is still under construction.


First incident of catsitting -- while unloading my car at my daughter's place, the cats took the opportunity of the open door to sneak out.  We hunted for them for over an hour before they came back on their own, looking guilty.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 17, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11115


Funny watching you people trying to leverage a best estimate IFR of .00002 to show us all how smart you all think you are.  I'm thinking about a see-saw cartoon with the IFR (a.k.a. as your hysteria) on the side that is pinned to the ground, holding nearly 1,000,000 folks suspended in the air on the other side.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 17, 2021)

espola said:


> First incident of catsitting -- while unloading my car at my daughter's place, the cats took the opportunity of the open door to sneak out.  We hunted for them for over an hour before they came back on their own, looking guilty.


The latest guess is there might be a small possibility of transmission from cats to humans especially with the delta so better mask up. Don’t know where those cats have been.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The latest guess is there might be a small possibility of transmission from cats to humans especially with the delta so better mask up. Don’t know where those cats have been.


a mask on Espola would reduce transmission from humans to cats.

For transmission from cats to humans, you need a mask on the cat.

good luck with that plan….


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 17, 2021)

A pandemic amongst the unvaccinated. trump is gone, the blood is now on tucker’s (and the likes) hands.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> a mask on Espola would reduce transmission from humans to cats.
> 
> For transmission from cats to humans, you need a mask on the cat.
> 
> good luck with that plan….


Seek and the internet provides.....actually I suspect cats and humans would prove remarkably similar in their inability to countenance the game theory behind wearing masks. 









						Cat Mask Guide · Covid-19 Archive
					

@pennysnark on shared a meme in her instagram story. The meme is a cat wearing a mask in various fashions with explanations on the proper way to wear a face mask.



					covid-19archive.org


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Corona is just a common cold virus.


That's really interesting to know. What's the S protein of a rhinovirus look like? In that case, instead of kicking my ass targeting the Rona, I wish Moderna had poured their energy into a pop to keep my kid from bringing home the sniffles.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> off ramp


Globally, this virus has been successful enough that it largely gets to dictate the timing and pitch of the off ramp.  We get to choose how reactive to be in determining what the contours of that will look like.  This virus is going to burn itself into a low level steady state with our global populations one way or another.  Our choices concern how we want to manage spatio-temporal aspects of the flare ups.  Outside of vaccination we are in a fundamentally reactive position.



Grace T. said:


> ruinous


If there is a silver lining, or blessing, with this virus is that it's complex interaction with our immune systems gave it, historically, an atypical mortality profile.  It is not, so far, U shaped in terms of a graph of lethality vs. age.  Meaning that, by and large, it did not come for the very young.  Why that is still isn't exactly clear.  But it did not have to be that way.  Not to be a downer, but if 2020 had been a year of little coffins, what ruinous means at this point could be very different.  We should remember that, and be thankful, because the next one of these zoonotic breakouts-assuming the chatter about this not being zoonotic is just that-may not work out that way.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Globally, this virus has been successful enough that it largely gets to dictate the timing and pitch of the off ramp.  We get to choose how reactive to be in determining what the contours of that will look like.  This virus is going to burn itself into a low level steady state with our global populations one way or another.  Our choices concern how we want to manage spatio-temporal aspects of the flare ups.  Outside of vaccination we are in a fundamentally reactive position.
> 
> 
> 
> If there is a silver lining, or blessing, with this virus is that it's complex interaction with our immune systems gave it, historically, an atypical mortality profile.  It is not, so far, U shaped in terms of a graph of lethality vs. age.  Meaning that, by and large, it did not come for the very young.  Why that is still isn't exactly clear.  But it did not have to be that way.  Not to be a downer, but if 2020 had been a year of little coffins, what ruinous means at this point could be very different.  We should remember that, and be thankful, because the next one of these zoonotic breakouts-assuming the chatter about this not being zoonotic is just that-may not work out that way.


Largely agree but a few caveats:  

a. Given the restrictions and imperfections in the vaccine there was always going to be a bump when we exited the restrictions. The only question was til when was this pushed off
b. The consensus seems to be that the probability is that this was not zoonotic…science caused its own Frankenstein monster
c. The virus will likely continue to evolve to avoid the vaccine.  The elderly in particular might need an updated Rona vaccine periodically 
d. The reason why there isn’t a rhino vaccine is because there isn’t a ton of free govt money  in developing it. As vaccination hesitancy shows with the new Rona vaccine, the market may be limited, and the testing required on kids is a years long process.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> a mask on Espola would reduce transmission from humans to cats.
> 
> For transmission from cats to humans, you need a mask on the cat.
> 
> good luck with that plan….


With a mask on the cat won’t be able to lick itself. And neither will E.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> That's really interesting to know. What's the S protein of a rhinovirus look like? In that case, instead of kicking my ass targeting the Rona, I wish Moderna had poured their energy into a pop to keep my kid from bringing home the sniffles.


That’s funny. The S protein of the rhinovirus looks like a pop.


----------



## espola (Jul 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Largely agree but a few caveats:
> 
> a. Given the restrictions and imperfections in the vaccine there was always going to be a bump when we exited the restrictions. The only question was til when was this pushed off
> b. The consensus seems to be that the probability is that this was not zoonotic…science caused its own Frankenstein monster
> ...


Consensus?  I have been tuned out of the news the last few days due to personal issues.  Has something come up;?


----------



## espola (Jul 18, 2021)

espola said:


> Consensus?  I have been tuned out of the news the last few days due to personal issues.  Has something come up;?


I found this review paper --





__





						The Origins of SARS-CoV-2: A Critical Review
					

The Origins of SARS-CoV-2: A Critical Review Holmes et al. Since the first reports of a novel SARS-like coronavirus in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, there has been intense interest in understanding how SARS-CoV-2 emerged in the human population. Recent debate has coalesced around two competing...




					zenodo.org
				




This article describes it to laymen such as engineers and lawyers and the like --









						Lab Leak or Zoonotic Transfer? Leading Biologists Review COVID-19 Virus Origin Evidence
					

Amid debate around the origins of SARS-CoV-2, leading global biologists have reviewed the scientific evidence to help clarify the origin of the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans. Pre-print paper highlights links supporting zoonotic origin for the virus Zero biological evidence exists for



					scitechdaily.com
				




_The review paper says: “There is no evidence that any early cases had any connection to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), in contrast to the clear epidemiological links to animal markets in Wuhan, nor evidence that the WIV possessed or worked on a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 prior to the pandemic.”

Rather, it argues that “there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-2.”

The 21 eminent scientists from universities and research institutes around the world warn that a focus on a highly improbable lab origin is distracting from the most urgent scientific tasks to “comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies.”_


----------



## dad4 (Jul 18, 2021)

espola said:


> I found this review paper --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


“no evidence”?

That is not credible.  I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak.  Maybe this particular researcher believes it is insufficient, but you can’t say it does not exist.  (Worse, the claim of “no evidence” is a bad sign.  Your source is either poorly informed, or choosing to deliberately misrepresent what evidence exists.   My guess is #2-  He disagrees with the other side, therefore he pretends they do not exist.)

The simplest evidence for a lab leak is the flat refusal of CCP to allow anyone to look at the lab.  This also hampers any search for a zoonotic origin.  It is the world’s best repository of bat virus samples, and we do not even know what is there.  By now, the entire collection and research notes should be digitized, externally verified, and freely available to any qualified researcher working on the problem.


----------



## espola (Jul 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> “no evidence”?
> 
> That is not credible.  I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak.  Maybe this particular researcher believes it is insufficient, but you can’t say it does not exist.  (Worse, the claim of “no evidence” is a bad sign.  Your source is either poorly informed, or choosing to deliberately misrepresent what evidence exists.   My guess is #2-  He disagrees with the other side, therefore he pretends they do not exist.)
> 
> The simplest evidence for a lab leak is the flat refusal of CCP to allow anyone to look at the lab.  This also hampers any search for a zoonotic origin.  It is the world’s best repository of bat virus samples, and we do not even know what is there.  By now, the entire collection and research notes should be digitized, externally verified, and freely available to any qualified researcher working on the problem.


Can you share a link to the credible scientific evidence you have read?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 18, 2021)

You two non-scientist crack me up with your origin smokescreen.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 18, 2021)

And WTF is Lebron in Space Jam now?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 18, 2021)

"The most recent Kaiser poll helps illustrate that the vaccine hesitant group doesn't really lean Republican. Just 20% of the group called themselves Republican with an additional 19% being independents who leaned Republican. The clear majority (61%) were not Republicans (41% said they were Democrats or Democratic leaning independents and 20% were either pure independents or undesignated)."


----------



## espola (Jul 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "The most recent Kaiser poll helps illustrate that the vaccine hesitant group doesn't really lean Republican. Just 20% of the group called themselves Republican with an additional 19% being independents who leaned Republican. The clear majority (61%) were not Republicans (41% said they were Democrats or Democratic leaning independents and 20% were either pure independents or undesignated)."


Next paragraph --

"This is very much unlike the vaccine resistant group, of whom 55% are Republican or Republican leaning independents. Just 21% of that group are Democrats or Democratic leaning independents."









						Why politicians won't reach the vaccine hesitant | CNN Politics
					

A look at the data reveals that the vaccine hesitant group, however, are not big Trump lovers. They're actually likely not to be Republican. Instead, many of them are people who are detached from the political process & didn't vote for Biden or Trump




					www.cnn.com


----------



## espola (Jul 18, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Ha! The multi-aliased, misanthropic troll already dismissed them as a source. How can they possibly give the proper definition?


"Critical race theory is an academic concept that is more than 40 years old. The core idea is that race is a social construct, and that racism is not merely the product of individual bias or prejudice, but also something embedded in legal systems and policies.

The basic tenets of critical race theory, or CRT, emerged out of a framework for legal analysis in the late 1970s and early 1980s created by legal scholars Derrick Bell, Kimberlé Crenshaw, and Richard Delgado, among others."


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 18, 2021)

Things are great in Australia.....














						Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 18, 2021)

Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Scientist warns
					

Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 5000 times the size of viral Covid particles




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## dad4 (Jul 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Scientist warns
> 
> 
> Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 5000 times the size of viral Covid particles
> ...


What, is it still April 2020 on your planet?

Nice to see that you found a new unqualified person to spout the misinformation this time.  This one is a Senior Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering.  Not even a professor, and talking well outside his field at that.


----------



## espola (Jul 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Scientist warns
> 
> 
> Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 5000 times the size of viral Covid particles
> ...


Paywall.

What does it say?


----------



## espola (Jul 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What, is it still April 2020 on your planet?
> 
> Nice to see that you found a new unqualified person to spout the misinformation this time.  This one is a Senior Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering.  Not even a professor, and talking well outside his field at that.


Here is a more up-to-date analysis from SAGE --





__





						[Withdrawn] [Withdrawn] Face coverings: when to wear one, exemptions and what makes a good one
					






					www.gov.uk


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What, is it still April 2020 on your planet?


Unhappily, it was always going to be the case that getting 2020 America to implement an effective mask strategy would turn out a bit like the night Bob Altemeyer seeded a bunch of high scoring RWAs into the Global Change Game.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What, is it still April 2020 on your planet?
> 
> Nice to see that you found a new unqualified person to spout the misinformation this time.  This one is a Senior Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering.  Not even a professor, and talking well outside his field at that.


1. You yourself have conceded cloth masks aren’t as good as the other masks which is basically what he’s saying
2. If you have it your way and masks were instrumental in keeping Asia under control they don’t seem to be doing as good of a job anymore
3. He makes the point that once the particle leaves the body it’s no longer a medical point but a physics problem.  To some extent he is correct in this. The medical people who have been advising on this can help define the particle and how it presents once it’s left the body but not how the physics affect it or the masks afterwards
4. He has been retained by industry and the uk government to consult on this so he is presumably a qualified expert. The medical professionals advising on other than the structure of particles leaving the body are not experts on this.


----------



## espola (Jul 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 1. You yourself have conceded cloth masks aren’t as good as the other masks which is basically what he’s saying
> 2. If you have it your way and masks were instrumental in keeping Asia under control they don’t seem to be doing as good of a job anymore
> 3. He makes the point that once the particle leaves the body it’s no longer a medical point but a physics problem.  To some extent he is correct in this. The medical people who have been advising on this can help define the particle and how it presents once it’s left the body but not how the physics affect it or the masks afterwards
> 4. He has been retained by industry and the uk government to consult on this so he is presumably a qualified expert. The medical professionals advising on other than the structure of particles leaving the body are not experts on this.


I assume this makes sense to you, but not to me.  Perhaps I should surrender and pay up at the paywall.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 1. You yourself have conceded cloth masks aren’t as good as the other masks which is basically what he’s saying
> 2. If you have it your way and masks were instrumental in keeping Asia under control they don’t seem to be doing as good of a job anymore
> 3. He makes the point that once the particle leaves the body it’s no longer a medical point but a physics problem.  To some extent he is correct in this. The medical people who have been advising on this can help define the particle and how it presents once it’s left the body but not how the physics affect it or the masks afterwards
> 4. He has been retained by industry and the uk government to consult on this so he is presumably a qualified expert. The medical professionals advising on other than the structure of particles leaving the body are not experts on this.


He never makes it clear to the physics.  He is still measuring the size of the virus.  Wrong question.  It completely ignores the fact that the tiny virus is inside a considerably larger water aerosol.  It’s like saying a sailboat can get under the bridge because the passengers are so short.

If you want a good analysis of the physics of breath, go back to your MIT study.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Scientist warns
> 
> 
> Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 5000 times the size of viral Covid particles
> ...


I have to admit that Dr. Axon is about the coolest name ever.  And its an opinion piece not a refereed article.  BUT, if it WERE refereed it would have been fun ever to write a review that goes something like this.  

Aerosols-ols-ols

Gives us that nice hydration
For epithelial penetration
But particle size 
Goes up
Exponentially
Oh yeah.

I gotta be in a cell or water
Or denaturation
Leads to
My slaughter
So, Axon don’t take
My aerosols 
Away from me.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> larger water aerosol.


Argghhh.  You beat me to it.  And yours is more helpful.  Also, wouldn't this ground have been pretty well tread (trod?) over about 200 pages ago?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> He never makes it clear to the physics.  He is still measuring the size of the virus.  Wrong question.  It completely ignores the fact that the tiny virus is inside a considerably larger water aerosol.  It’s like saying a sailboat can get under the bridge because the passengers are so short.
> 
> If you want a good analysis of the physics of breath, go back to your MIT study.


Fair critique but are you saying the aerosolized ratio of virus to aerosolized particle is 1:500,000?  That’s just not consistent with the other data on cloth masks that they simply don’t work as well as the surgical which the article points out also has a smaller ratio


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 19, 2021)

More mask news. Nevada southern district health which governs Las Vegas has reimposed the mask mandate.  It does not presently apply to the casinos which would have to be mandated by the gaming commission. But the pressure to do so will be severe. 

Anyone wanna start a pool for how long before New York and NorCal reimpose?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 19, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "The most recent Kaiser poll helps illustrate that the vaccine hesitant group doesn't really lean Republican. Just 20% of the group called themselves Republican with an additional 19% being independents who leaned Republican. The clear majority (61%) were not Republicans (41% said they were Democrats or Democratic leaning independents and 20% were either pure independents or undesignated)."


Saw a graph on the cdc site. If I can find it again I’ll post it.  67% of Asian Americans have gotten at least 1 covid jab. Hispanics running slightly under other at the low 40%.  African Americans were the lowest vaccinated group by race at under 40% about 1/3. In the South African Americans aren’t voting overwhelming Republican.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fair critique but are you saying the aerosolized ratio of virus to aerosolized particle is 1:500,000?  That’s just not consistent with the other data on cloth masks that they simply don’t work as well as the surgical which the article points out also has a smaller ratio


Not really about size at all.  My current belief is that the main benefit of a mask is that it slows your breath, giving the infected air time to diffuse and rise before it reaches the next person.  

Hard to measure that in a lab, though.  You would need something like the experiment with two mannequin heads, but in a large room and using warm, moist air. 

Large room, so the exhalations have room to diffuse.  Warm air, because breath is warm and rises.  Moist air, because some masks have hydrophilic fibers and some do not.

My guess is even a bandana has a significant impact at slowing your breath, though it is not a very good filter.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What, is it still April 2020 on your planet?
> 
> Nice to see that you found a new unqualified person to spout the misinformation this time.  This one is a Senior Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering.  Not even a professor, and talking well outside his field at that.


Imagine that.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really about size at all.  My current belief is that the main benefit of a mask is that it slows your breath, giving the infected air time to diffuse and rise before it reaches the next person.
> 
> Hard to measure that in a lab, though.  You would need something like the experiment with two mannequin heads, but in a large room and using warm, moist air.
> 
> ...


Let me meditate on this a bit.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 19, 2021)

In the UK cases are now nearing the winter peak.  But deaths remain on the floor, even below the first wave, at around 40-50 per day.









						United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## espola (Jul 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In the UK cases are now nearing the winter peak.  But deaths remain on the floor, even below the first wave, at around 40-50 per day.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It seems that "seasonal" now means that it is likely to peak in any season.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 19, 2021)

Moderna launches trial of COVID-19 vaccine for pregnant women
					

Moderna will soon begin trials to find whether their vaccine is safe for pregnant women. Currently, the CDC does not have advice for pregnant women and the vaccine.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




Amazing we don't know the answer to this yet.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 19, 2021)

Things getting heated in France.  We aren't at the end.  We are merely at the beginning of the end of all this....









						Macron forced into embarrassing Covid U-turn after violence erupts
					

EMMANUEL MACRON has been forced into a humiliating U-turn after mass protests sparked over the introduction of the controversial 'health pass' on Saturday.




					www.express.co.uk


----------



## espola (Jul 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Things getting heated in France.  We aren't at the end.  We are merely at the beginning of the end of all this....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Are you panicking yet?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Are you panicking yet?


I'm not the one bringing back mask mandates and vaccine passports.  How about you?   Got the cat mask yet?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not really about size at all.  My current belief is that the main benefit of a mask is that it slows your breath, giving the infected air time to diffuse and rise before it reaches the next person.
> 
> Hard to measure that in a lab, though.  You would need something like the experiment with two mannequin heads, but in a large room and using warm, moist air.
> 
> ...


O.k.  It took me a while to process this.  This is either: a) a desperate attempt to rationalize and find a way masks works, even against the rising Delta variant which if you assume arguendo masks worked at the beginning and stopped Asia's waves no longer are doing much good, or b) a brilliant new way of thinking of this which has been overlooked by others.  I accept that b) is possible, even though its far more than likely its an a) blue pill clinging sort of rationalization attempt.  

The only real critique I can offer is that, particular for at least some asthmatics, it works the other way.  My breath actually accelerates when wearing a mask (which is one of the reasons I have a personal dislike of them and its not just a minor inconvenience), particularly if my activity level does not slow down from the applicable state.  But I have no idea what % of asthmatics it might happen (though given the online complaints it might be substantial) or what portion of the US population would be affect so that it would even be material.


----------



## espola (Jul 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> O.k.  It took me a while to process this.  This is either: a) a desperate attempt to rationalize and find a way masks works, even against the rising Delta variant which if you assume arguendo masks worked at the beginning and stopped Asia's waves no longer are doing much good, or b) a brilliant new way of thinking of this which has been overlooked by others.  I accept that b) is possible, even though its far more than likely its an a) blue pill clinging sort of rationalization attempt.
> 
> The only real critique I can offer is that, particular for at least some asthmatics, it works the other way.  My breath actually accelerates when wearing a mask (which is one of the reasons I have a personal dislike of them and its not just a minor inconvenience), particularly if my activity level does not slow down from the applicable state.  But I have no idea what % of asthmatics it might happen (though given the online complaints it might be substantial) or what portion of the US population would be affect so that it would even be material.


Please rewrite this completely, with the objectives of being more clear and using half as many words.  It's just gobbledygook as it sits.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Please rewrite this completely, with the objectives of being more clear and using half as many words.  It's just gobbledygook as it sits.


Playing teacher again Magoo?


----------



## espola (Jul 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Playing teacher again Magoo?


You can choose to ignore my advice.  No one is getting grades here.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> O.k.  It took me a while to process this.  This is either: a) a desperate attempt to rationalize and find a way masks works, even against the rising Delta variant which if you assume arguendo masks worked at the beginning and stopped Asia's waves no longer are doing much good, or b) a brilliant new way of thinking of this which has been overlooked by others.  I accept that b) is possible, even though its far more than likely its an a) blue pill clinging sort of rationalization attempt.
> 
> The only real critique I can offer is that, particular for at least some asthmatics, it works the other way.  My breath actually accelerates when wearing a mask (which is one of the reasons I have a personal dislike of them and its not just a minor inconvenience), particularly if my activity level does not slow down from the applicable state.  But I have no idea what % of asthmatics it might happen (though given the online complaints it might be substantial) or what portion of the US population would be affect so that it would even be material.


yeah, yeah.  blue pill, red pill, pink pill, whatevah.   Let’s go back to thinking.

Speed of breath in terms of meters per second, not breaths per minute.  

That is, how fast is your breath travelling once it is 5 inches from your face?  (and what does that imply about the distance it travels in the first 3 seconds after you exhale?)

An asthmatic thinking about speed of breath is thinking about breaths per minute.  That’s an important question for personal comfort, but does not affect the velocity I’m talking about.  

A simple test is to wet your finger and put it in front of your face.  Your breath will cool it when you talk- but not if you have a mask on.   The mask is slowing the velocity of your exhalation.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 19, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Playing teacher again Magoo?


Heʻs shopping for cat mask.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> yeah, yeah.  blue pill, red pill, pink pill, whatevah.   Let’s go back to thinking.
> 
> Speed of breath in terms of meters per second, not breaths per minute.
> 
> ...





dad4 said:


> No one can answer your “Masks work, right?” question.  You are asking for a boolean answer to a non-boolean question.  It’s no more meaningful than asking whether a goalie blocks goals- and insisting that the only possible answers are “yes” and “no”.
> 
> *Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*
> 
> ...


How about natural immunity?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You still have the wrong answer.
> 
> The answer isn't "Maybe".  There is not doubt about it.  We know that masks reduce the odds of transmission.


No.  You don't.  You continue to ignore natural immunity.  Which makes it easy to discredit you and those that think the same as you.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 19, 2021)

COVID CHART QUIZ FOR ESPOLA, DAD AND ANY OTHER BRAVE SOULS


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 20, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> How about natural immunity?


By which you mean an adaptive (ie making antibodies) response to Cov-2 acquired through infection? 

Or do you mean natural immunity as in a broad conception of innate immunity, encompassing all the processes that prevent healthy people from getting sick in the first place.  The interconnection between physical/mental vitality affecting a host of processes like complement, interferon, endogenous RNA viral genome chopping stuff, etc?


----------



## espola (Jul 20, 2021)

We have officially replaced "Nonsense" with "I want to  say this officially - you don't know what  you are talking about!"


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 20, 2021)

So the latest doom befalling us is the delta variant. 

Lets look at cases vs deaths and see if there is anything to worry about.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 20, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So the latest doom befalling us is the delta variant.
> 
> Lets look at cases vs deaths and see if there is anything to worry about.
> 
> ...


I think all three examples shown are ≥50% 18 and older at least one pop.  So if we get past the expected lag between cases and deaths and they still appear uncoupled its really good news, especially since a lot, if not most, cases will be delta. Anybody know of any equivalent recent spike data for a low vax country?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 20, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417509300537217028


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 20, 2021)

Papers please?









						France will require people to use a 'health passport' to enter a restaurant or attraction this fall
					

French President Emmanuel Macron said the new policy requiring COVID-19 vaccines would start in August.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 20, 2021)

Now compare the above charts vs Russia. They either have a bad vaccine, low vaccination rates, or both. 

Either way we see the rise in cases ARE corresponding with a big rise in deaths. 

We are not seeing this in the west with better vaccines and high vaccination rates. I believe the concern over the delta variant is overblown based on what we are seeing so far.


----------



## espola (Jul 20, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417509300537217028


The last 10 seconds were the best, so feel free to skip ahead.

Fauci was, as usual, candid and forthright.  Paul was, as usual, a bully.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 20, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Now compare the above charts vs Russia. They either have a bad vaccine, low vaccination rates, or both.
> 
> Either way we see the rise in cases ARE corresponding with a big rise in deaths.
> 
> ...


So the pattern at least fits with a substantial life protective effect in high vax Western countries although we're clearly arm chair quarterbacking with a small subset of data.  Encouraging though. As the data emerges, things epidemiologists will be wondering in making policy recommendations include: so we got a mixture of people who appear to be more resistant to at least the Covid19 part of Cov-2, likely as a result of acquired immunity through previous infection, through vaxx, or both.  We've also got a higher burst variant that's coming on strong.  For those that test positive by PCR (which I assume largely = cases), maybe show a range of non-life threatening symptoms, what sort of viral titer are they producing? Its possible that the numbers right now could mean that the increase in viral production associated with the delta variant basically just cause people that would have been asymptomatic to now feel low level symptoms and therefore go get tested and get scored as cases, even though their lives were never in any danger. In that case the data might indicate that with delta we are just going more effective sampling.  Or it could be that with vaxx there is now just a longer lag between cases and morbidity in susceptible people, especially if we bin the mortality data by age or other co-morbities.  How much protection are the most susceptible segments of the population getting?  Stuff like that.  Everyone's really tired of this but we're just now starting to get a look at what the vaccines might be doing out there in the real world.  

Best case scenario would be that the most effective vaccines not only save peoples lives but also substantially lower the amount of virus produced during an infection.


----------



## espola (Jul 20, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Papers please?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Sounds reasonable.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 20, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> By which you mean an adaptive (ie making antibodies) response to Cov-2 acquired through infection?
> 
> Or do you mean natural immunity as in a broad conception of innate immunity, encompassing all the processes that prevent healthy people from getting sick in the first place.  The interconnection between physical/mental vitality affecting a host of processes like complement, interferon, endogenous RNA viral genome chopping stuff, etc?


Yes.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 20, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> I think all three examples shown are ≥50% 18 and older at least one pop.  So if we get past the expected lag between cases and deaths and they still appear uncoupled its really good news, especially since a lot, if not most, cases will be delta. Anybody know of any equivalent recent spike data for a low vax country?


Like Los Angeles?


----------



## espola (Jul 20, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Now compare the above charts vs Russia. They either have a bad vaccine, low vaccination rates, or both.
> 
> Either way we see the rise in cases ARE corresponding with a big rise in deaths.
> 
> ...


The virus doesn't care what you believe.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 20, 2021)

espola said:


> The last 10 seconds were the best, so feel free to skip ahead.
> 
> Fauci was, as usual, candid and forthright.  Paul was, as usual, a bully.


Nonsense


----------



## espola (Jul 20, 2021)

SEC -- get your football players vaccinated or risk forfeits.









						COVID forfeits on table for SEC as vax totals lag
					

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey says that unlike last year, games will not be postponed over COVID concerns. Six of the conference's 14 football teams have reached an 80% vaccination mark.




					www.espn.com


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 20, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Yes.


In an acute respiratory virus epidemic, natural immunity as general health throughout the population determines how many and whom in the population is the most susceptible. Same thing with cold and flu. Natural immunity as adaptive immunity to prior infection rather than vaxx is likely a big chunk of the adaptive immunity that's out there. So what's being overlooked or not considered? Peeks behind the curtain.  Is this a herd immunity thing?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 20, 2021)

espola said:


> The last 10 seconds were the best, so feel free to skip ahead.
> 
> Fauci was, as usual, candid and forthright.  Paul was, as usual, a bully.


Fauci's game was to keep insisting that there was no proof he specifically funded the covid-19 creation itself -- while ignoring Paul's point that he had previously denied funding _any_ gain of function research at Wuhan, which now is proven to be a lie.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 20, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> So the pattern at least fits with a substantial life protective effect in high vax Western countries although we're clearly arm chair quarterbacking with a small subset of data.  Encouraging though. As the data emerges, things epidemiologists will be wondering in making policy recommendations include: so we got a mixture of people who appear to be more resistant to at least the Covid19 part of Cov-2, likely as a result of acquired immunity through previous infection, through vaxx, or both.  We've also got a higher burst variant that's coming on strong.  For those that test positive by PCR (which I assume largely = cases), maybe show a range of non-life threatening symptoms, what sort of viral titer are they producing? Its possible that the numbers right now could mean that the increase in viral production associated with the delta variant basically just cause people that would have been asymptomatic to now feel low level symptoms and therefore go get tested and get scored as cases, even though their lives were never in any danger. In that case the data might indicate that with delta we are just going more effective sampling.  Or it could be that with vaxx there is now just a longer lag between cases and morbidity in susceptible people, especially if we bin the mortality data by age or other co-morbities.  How much protection are the most susceptible segments of the population getting?  Stuff like that.  Everyone's really tired of this but we're just now starting to get a look at what the vaccines might be doing out there in the real world.
> 
> Best case scenario would be that the most effective vaccines not only save peoples lives but also substantially lower the amount of virus produced during an infection.


Part of the issue with the testing, though, is that there is now a disconnect.  Certain people are being mandatorily tested even if asymptomatic: hollywood movie sets, some schools, some colleges, some fire and police, the military, government officials, hospital admits.  Certain asymptomatics are being referred to testing, for example if they've been exposed to a known case.  But on the other end, because the virus is less severe if you are vaccinated or asymptomatic, we might be missing quite a few cases (since if someone just has the sniffles they might not get tested thinking they just have a cold).  It's going to distort the numbers on both ends making cases an unreliable measure of what's happening..  Maybe positivity would give a better picture, but it's still being distorted by the asymptomatics....it being better to know who actually develops illness, and among those showing illness what percentage is COVID out there right now among the vaxxed .v. nonvaxxed


----------



## dad4 (Jul 20, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> So the pattern at least fits with a substantial life protective effect in high vax Western countries although we're clearly arm chair quarterbacking with a small subset of data.  Encouraging though. As the data emerges, things epidemiologists will be wondering in making policy recommendations include: so we got a mixture of people who appear to be more resistant to at least the Covid19 part of Cov-2, likely as a result of acquired immunity through previous infection, through vaxx, or both.  We've also got a higher burst variant that's coming on strong.  For those that test positive by PCR (which I assume largely = cases), maybe show a range of non-life threatening symptoms, what sort of viral titer are they producing? Its possible that the numbers right now could mean that the increase in viral production associated with the delta variant basically just cause people that would have been asymptomatic to now feel low level symptoms and therefore go get tested and get scored as cases, even though their lives were never in any danger. In that case the data might indicate that with delta we are just going more effective sampling.  Or it could be that with vaxx there is now just a longer lag between cases and morbidity in susceptible people, especially if we bin the mortality data by age or other co-morbities.  How much protection are the most susceptible segments of the population getting?  Stuff like that.  Everyone's really tired of this but we're just now starting to get a look at what the vaccines might be doing out there in the real world.
> 
> Best case scenario would be that the most effective vaccines not only save peoples lives but also substantially lower the amount of virus produced during an infection.


You should be able to look at the rate of increase in places with very high vax rates.  Pick places with so many vaccinations that you’d expect some herd immunity.

If those places have a high rate of case growth, then it may be that Delta can spread though the vaccinated population.  

Just looked at Vermont, Massachusetts, and San Francisco.  All three have cases doubling in 1 week or less.  So, either they have a VERY social anti-vax minority, or Delta is spreading through the vax majority.  (though perhaps not bothering them much as it moves about.)


----------



## whatithink (Jul 20, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Fauci's game was to keep insisting that there was no proof he specifically funded the covid-19 creation itself -- while ignoring Paul's point that he had previously denied funding _any_ gain of function research at Wuhan, which now is proven to be a lie.


I'm pretty sure Fauci got distracted from the gain of function because Paul said he was responsible for 4M deaths and that caught his attention. Paul then backed off that and went back to gain of function, while Fauci was still caught up in refuting the accusation that he was complicit in the deaths of 4M people.

On balance, I kinda think I might be more inclined to deal with the 4M death accusation in a limited time frame, than the gain of function one, but maybe others would ignore that.

I do think the gain of function defense he had seemed weak (qualified people up and down the chain all agreed it wasn't) vs Paul's definition and reading of what happened. Then again, I'm not qualified to read the report or make the assessment. Bottom line is that the US government (among others) funds research into all manner of things, many of them dangerous and deadly. We just don't want to know unless they get out. All this funding comes from ... Congress.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 20, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I'm pretty sure Fauci got distracted from the gain of function because Paul said he was responsible for 4M deaths and that caught his attention.


No that actually refers to testimony he had some time before....ie another date. 

Since that time info came out showing there was in fact funding paid that went to the Wuhan lab. 

So his story has changed.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 20, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> No that actually refers to testimony he had some time before....ie another date.
> 
> Since that time info came out showing there was in fact funding paid that went to the Wuhan lab.
> 
> So his story has changed.


I'm not particularly defending Fauci, and as I said, I thought his defense was weak, i.e. qualified people said it wasn't. You could say he dealt with it and moved on to the far more egregious accusation by Paul that he was complicit in the deaths of 4M people. Paul shouldn't have said that and just stuck to the gain of function. 

Let's be honest, if you take Paul's apparent argumentative thread on the 4M dead and Fauci or whoever approved the spend as being responsible, then you could surely say that Congress actually approved the spend, so the House and Senate are responsible for 4M dead. Throw in the fact that Congress has various oversight committees and the ability to review what is being spent, and they have full power over the purse strings, including these. Add both Obama and Trump who would have signed off on the spend and you've gone all the way to the top.

I'm good with that.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 20, 2021)

whatithink said:


> I'm not particularly defending Fauci, and as I said, I thought his defense was weak, i.e. qualified people said it wasn't. You could say he dealt with it and moved on to the far more egregious accusation by Paul that he was complicit in the deaths of 4M people. Paul shouldn't have said that and just stuck to the gain of function.
> 
> Let's be honest, if you take Paul's apparent argumentative thread on the 4M dead and Fauci or whoever approved the spend as being responsible, then you could surely say that Congress actually approved the spend, so the House and Senate are responsible for 4M dead. Throw in the fact that Congress has various oversight committees and the ability to review what is being spent, and they have full power over the purse strings, including these. Add both Obama and Trump who would have signed off on the spend and you've gone all the way to the top.
> 
> I'm good with that.


Neither obama nor trump would have reviewed the level of detail in the budget for a grant to some third party (checked to see what the third party was and what it did) and line itemed it (us presidents do not have a line item power). They are both responsible only in a buck stops here sort of way (as is Biden to the extent he hasn’t fired fauci for it). Congress is a little more true since as you say they have oversight power…but they’ve surrendered a lot of that detail oversight to the executive over the years (hence recent flurries or executive orders).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 20, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> In an acute respiratory virus epidemic, natural immunity as general health throughout the population determines how many and whom in the population is the most susceptible. Same thing with cold and flu. Natural immunity as adaptive immunity to prior infection rather than vaxx is likely a big chunk of the adaptive immunity that's out there. So what's being overlooked or not considered? Peeks behind the curtain.  Is this a herd immunity thing?


Yes.  Herd immunity and therapies being overlooked.  My buddy Duane turned 89 this year.  Caught COVID last November and was touch and go until he got some prednisone to sort him out.  Celebrated his 89th about a month ago!


----------



## whatithink (Jul 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Neither obama nor trump would have reviewed the level of detail in the budget for a grant to some third party (checked to see what the third party was and what it did) and line itemed it (us presidents do not have a line item power). They are both responsible only in a buck stops here sort of way (as is Biden to the extent he hasn’t fired fauci for it). Congress is a little more true since as you say they have oversight power…but they’ve surrendered a lot of that detail oversight to the executive over the years (hence recent flurries or executive orders).


My point is that Congress, and Paul in particular, are always grandstanding to blame someone, anyone, after the fact, for political gain. They have absolutely, as you say, surrendered their power and their constitutional role, for what - short term political expediency.

As for Presidents - they can kill it immediately.

Quote
"_In 2014 the administration of US President Barack Obama called for a “pause” on funding (and relevant research with existing US Government funding) of GOF experiments involving influenza, SARS, and MERS viruses in particular._"









						Gain-of-Function Research: Ethical Analysis
					

Gain-of-function (GOF) research involves experimentation that aims or is expected to (and/or, perhaps, actually does) increase the transmissibility and/or virulence of pathogens. Such research, when conducted by responsible scientists, usually aims to ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 21, 2021)

whatithink said:


> My point is that Congress, and Paul in particular, are always grandstanding to blame someone, anyone, after the fact, for political gain. They have absolutely, as you say, surrendered their power and their constitutional role, for what - short term political expediency.
> 
> As for Presidents - they can kill it immediately.
> 
> ...


Certainly wouldn't be the first time government funded a crisis just so that they would have something to fix.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Quote
> "_In 2014 the administration of US President Barack Obama called for a “pause” on funding (and relevant research with existing US Government funding) of GOF experiments involving influenza, SARS, and MERS viruses in particular._"


And despite that funding continued on, which Fauci was aware of. 

At the beginning of this when it was floated it was possibly man made he said not possible. This despite him on email communications receiving info that indeed it may be. 

His story has changed on this over time. 

Do politicians grandstand? All day long they do. 

On this though Paul is right. Fauci in earlier testimony said no funding had gone towards gain of function. Turns out that is not correct. 

The real question though regardless of covid is why are we sending money to China to do any of this kind of research in the first place? And why if we are doing to do it, why continue funding when internal reports show there was concern regarding their safety procedures? 

One might also ask why did funding continue on despite O calling for a pause on this type of research? Do agencies just do what they want and ignore what Presidents say? That was a trick question. Of course they do.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1416725826289106946


----------



## espola (Jul 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> “no evidence”?
> 
> That is not credible.  I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak.  Maybe this particular researcher believes it is insufficient, but you can’t say it does not exist.  (Worse, the claim of “no evidence” is a bad sign.  Your source is either poorly informed, or choosing to deliberately misrepresent what evidence exists.   My guess is #2-  He disagrees with the other side, therefore he pretends they do not exist.)
> 
> The simplest evidence for a lab leak is the flat refusal of CCP to allow anyone to look at the lab.  This also hampers any search for a zoonotic origin.  It is the world’s best repository of bat virus samples, and we do not even know what is there.  By now, the entire collection and research notes should be digitized, externally verified, and freely available to any qualified researcher working on the problem.





espola said:


> Can you share a link to the credible scientific evidence you have read?


Have you found that scientific evidence yet?  It might help with trying to understand the current controversy.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you found that scientific evidence yet?  It might help with trying to understand the current controversy.


We are dealing with the government, no science needed.  If they think it's plausible that it was a lab leak, then we should all be on board - simple as that.  Trust in your government, no ifs, ands, or buts.


----------



## espola (Jul 21, 2021)

what-happened said:


> We are dealing with the government, no science needed.  If they think it's plausible that it was a lab leak, then we should all be on board - simple as that.  Trust in your government, no ifs, ands, or buts.


Which "they" are you referring to?

I was responding to Dad4'a claim "I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak" in response to a scholarly review article that said there was no such evidence.  

Just looking for clarity.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Which "they" are you referring to?
> 
> I was responding to Dad4'a claim "I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak" in response to a scholarly review article that said there was no such evidence.
> 
> Just looking for clarity.


There have been a number of prominent scientists that now say it is in the realm of possibility this was a lab leak. 

An article out yesterday talking about how much of Biden's top advisors have also come to this conclusion. 

You can look it up. I am not looking for links for you.


----------



## espola (Jul 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> There have been a number of prominent scientists that now say it is in the realm of possibility this was a lab leak.
> 
> An article out yesterday talking about how much of Biden's top advisors have also come to this conclusion.
> 
> You can look it up. I am not looking for links for you.


You read it, but you don't know where?

Typical.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

So we have been on an exceptional spending spree.

Inflation is back.


"The latest June data already show price inflation at a 13-year high, with prices having risen 5.4 percent year-over-year. Proponents of the big-government policies driving much of this increase insist the uptick in prices is only temporary. But billionaire and grocery chain CEO John Catsimatidis just predicted that overall price inflation, for consumer goods generally, will hit a 6 percent annualized rate by October. 

In an interview with _Fox Business_, the CEO warned that his industry is seeing skyrocketing costs on the supply chain side, and that businesses will have to raise prices for consumers as a result. 

“Food prices are getting higher, and we expect even more increases by October,” Catsimatidis said. “You have to pass [those extra costs] on [to consumers] or you’re not doing your duty to God, your country, your employees, and your company.”  

While we can’t know for certain, Catsimatidis said rising costs could mean an *astounding 10 to 14 percent specific increase in grocery prices by October. *That’s truly a shocking amount. But this warning offers more than insight into the grocery industry. It’s a painful reminder of how price inflation hurts everyday Americans."





__





						Grocery Prices Could Rise 10 to 14 Percent By October, Grocery Chain CEO Warns | Brad Polumbo
					

“Food prices are getting higher, and we expect even more increases by October,” billionaire and grocery chain CEO John Catsimatidis said.



					fee.org
				




Unrestrained spending is leading to the above issues. 

With that in mind consider that the Dems want a 3.7 trillion "infrastructure bill". To put that into perspective. In 2019 the entire budget was 4.4 trillion.

If that thing passes, get ready for a lot more "unintended" consequences. Inflation being one of them. 

By the way, been to a gas station recently? 

All this spending hurts everyone, but really hurts the people that can least afford it.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Which "they" are you referring to?
> 
> I was responding to Dad4'a claim "I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak" in response to a scholarly review article that said there was no such evidence.
> 
> Just looking for clarity.


If you wanted clarity, you'd be reading the Nature article on the topic.

The evidence I was thinking of is the double CGG arginine encoding.  It works, but it is a weird way to say arginine- especially twice in a row.

I don't mind a debate on the strength of CGG CGG as evidence.  But it is misleading to say "no evidence exists".  That statement is probably false.


----------



## espola (Jul 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If you wanted clarity, you'd be reading the Nature article on the topic.
> 
> The evidence I was thinking of is the double CGG arginine encoding.  It works, but it is a weird way to say arginine- especially twice in a row.
> 
> I don't mind a debate on the strength of CGG CGG as evidence.  But it is misleading to say "no evidence exists".  That statement is probably false.


What does CGG CGG have to do with the covid vaccine?

Please try to keep it simple - I'm no biologist.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> What does CGG CGG have to do with the covid vaccine?
> 
> Please try to keep it simple - I'm no biologist.


DNA and RNA triples encode for amino acids.  CGG is one of the ways to encode arginine.  It is uncommon, but not unknown, in coronaviruses.

One key mutation that makes covid 19 work so well is a double CGG at just the right spot to help it attack human cells.

This is evidence that the mutation was part of gain of function research (where CGG is common) and not part of natural evolution ( where CGG is uncommon.)

No smoking gun, but not "no evidence" either.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So we have been on an exceptional spending spree.
> 
> Inflation is back.
> 
> ...


Isn't the infrastructure bill a 10-year planned spend? I also thought the current one is $1.2T, not $3.7T. Big numbers, but comparing a 10-year number to an annual number is disingenuous.

How is "unrestrained spending" leading to grocery price increases caused by "skyrocketing costs on the supply chain side"?


----------



## espola (Jul 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> DNA and RNA triples encode for amino acids.  CGG is one of the ways to encode arginine.  It is uncommon, but not unknown, in coronaviruses.
> 
> One key mutation that makes covid 19 work so well is a double CGG at just the right spot to help it attack human cells.
> 
> ...


" a double CGG at just the right spot to help it attack human cells."

How does that work?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Isn't the infrastructure bill a 10-year planned spend? I also thought the current one is $1.2T, not $3.7T. Big numbers, but comparing a 10-year number to an annual number is disingenuous.


Actually it is 4.1 trillion. This is as of a few days ago. 


*"What’s in the $3.5 Trillion Infrastructure Agreement?*
Democratic legislators reached a $3.5 trillion Budget Committee agreement to make the “biggest investment in the middle class in decades and act on the climate crisis.” *The agreement, combined with the $600 billion bipartisan plan, would add up to $4.1 trillion*."









						Biden's Infrastructure Bills: Inside the $3 Trillion Plan - SmartAsset
					

Biden's infrastructure plan will invest roughly $3 trillion on roads, electricity and broadband, as well as Medicare, education and climate change.




					smartasset.com
				




The spending will be done over a period of years. What is interesting and sucks is that they will "pay for it" over a much longer period of time. 

In terms of supply chain and inflation?

That is a 2 parter. 1 part is covid related...as in shutdowns, slowdowns, etc have affected supply chains. The 2nd part is prices everywhere are going up. Labor, raw materials, etc. We have spent way to much money and that has put upward pressure on all prices. 

You also have changes to energy. Energy prices are more expensive. The new policies are more restrictive. That puts upward pressure on energy. That in turn means shipping, transportation, manufacturing, etc become more expensive. 

Between covid and the spending our gov is doing prices are going up.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> " a double CGG at just the right spot to help it attack human cells."
> 
> How does that work?


read the Nature article.  Why ask a math guy for the bio lesson?


----------



## espola (Jul 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> read the Nature article.  Why ask a math guy for the bio lesson?


Which Nature article?


----------



## whatithink (Jul 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Actually it is 4.1 trillion. This is as of a few days ago.
> 
> 
> *"What’s in the $3.5 Trillion Infrastructure Agreement?*
> ...


Covid impacted supply chains and prices have gone up - I get that. Once the supply chains get back on track, prices will start to decline - e.g. the new/used car market is a good example of that (and was one of the main drivers of inflation in May). That's got nothing to do with government spending impacting inflation.

The National Retail Federations view is that the infrastructure spend will not impact inflation in the short term - https://nrf.com/blog/bipartisan-infrastructure-proposal-unlikely-add-overall-inflation.

Oil prices - OPEC+ cut 10M barrels a day in 2020 to get oil prices back up and have slowly been adding back capacity. So oil prices will go down, but they will also continue to restrict prices to keep it as high as possible. They just agreed a new deal to increase capacity this month.

Governments all over the world have spent unprecedented amounts, for good reason.

There are no inflation projections that I can find anywhere close to the double digits in your original article. 

I'm not sure the $4T can be called infrastructure and, in any case, it'll never get through.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Which "they" are you referring to?
> 
> I was responding to Dad4'a claim "I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak" in response to a scholarly review article that said there was no such evidence.
> 
> Just looking for clarity.


They, them...the gubment.  Apparently the scholarly review article is not held in high regard by the government, who now thinks a lab leak is possible. Funny how this all works.  .  Who to believe?  I suppose we will wait for another scholarly article to be published.


----------



## espola (Jul 21, 2021)

what-happened said:


> They, them...the gubment.  Apparently the scholarly review article is not held in high regard by the government, who now thinks a lab leak is possible. Funny how this all works.  .  Who to believe?  I suppose we will wait for another scholarly article to be published.


You're babbling.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Which Nature article?











						The COVID lab-leak hypothesis: what scientists do and don’t know
					

Nature examines arguments that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab in China, and the science behind them.




					www.nature.com
				




A few weeks old.  Three may be more since then.


----------



## espola (Jul 21, 2021)

DII SIAC mandates vaccinations --  









						Division II conference first to require vaccinations
					

The Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, which competes in Division II, on Tuesday became the first conference on record to mandate vaccinations.




					www.espn.com


----------



## whatithink (Jul 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Actually it is 4.1 trillion. This is as of a few days ago.
> 
> 
> *"What’s in the $3.5 Trillion Infrastructure Agreement?*
> ...


Here's a breakdown of the US COVID spend. I don't see how this is an inflation driver. The only one that might be is the direct payments, but that's less than a quarter of the total, and for everyone who didn't need that, there's probably someone else who did to pay rent/mortgage etc., i.e. every day bills and not just blowing it.





__





						COVID Money Tracker
					

See how much COVID relief has been spent and where the money has gone with the #COVIDMoneyTracker tool.




					www.covidmoneytracker.org
				




Inflation is being driven by the supply chain problems with Covid, as best I can tell. Americans have a higher saving rate now than in decades, so its not demand - its limited supply driving up prices which drive up the indices used to calculate inflation. I expect this will settle down. If the Fed is estimating inflation at 3.4% for the rest of the year but not upping interest rates, I expect they are not that concerned, and they know more than me on this subject.

BTW, inflation (low digits) is not necessarily a bad thing.


----------



## espola (Jul 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The COVID lab-leak hypothesis: what scientists do and don’t know
> 
> 
> Nature examines arguments that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab in China, and the science behind them.
> ...


"Possibility remains' is not scientific evidence.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Covid impacted supply chains and prices have gone up - I get that. Once the supply chains get back on track, prices will start to decline - e.g. the new/used car market is a good example of that (and was one of the main drivers of inflation in May). That's got nothing to do with government spending impacting inflation.


Higher prices related to supply chain disruptions will change in a downward manner once the disruptions are minimized/gone. That said they will still be higher because of our current inflation. And that inflation is absolutely is a result of our printing/spending money.



whatithink said:


> Governments all over the world have spent unprecedented amounts, for good reason.


That spending will also come back to haunt their constituents as well...assuming they went on the wild spending spree we are doing.




whatithink said:


> I'm not sure the $4T can be called infrastructure and, in any case, it'll never get through.


I fully agree on this one. Much of what they are peddling as infrastructure has nothing to do with infrastructure. But by calling it infrastructure many people assume that is what it is. And unfortunately the press is rather uninterested in calling out what they really want to do.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 21, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> DII SIAC mandates vaccinations --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well here is part of their non scientific/false statement. 

"Within the context of rising COVID-19 infection rates, student-athletes are a *particularly vulnerable stakeholder group*"

CDC stats show that college age individuals have basically zero risk from covid.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 21, 2021)

Inflation is getting real bad folks.  The new goal for super rich dad is to now go up to space for $21,000,000 for freaking 10 minutes.  Anyway, I just stay home and mine my business and hope things get better.  My pal told me about combo deals now at Edwards.  BTW, it's been theraputic for me to sit back and watch all this play out.  Remember, it's not a "Us vs Them."  Its always US!!!!  Stay thirsty for the truth my friends and never be afraid to ask questions


----------



## what-happened (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> You're babbling.


I was hoping to communicate with you but to no avail.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 21, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I was hoping to communicate with you but to no avail.


Go PM it up with Espola bro.  He's always been nice to me offline.  Round and round we go until we ALL can't take it anymore is my new motto in life


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 21, 2021)

Look, even Andy tried to pull a fast one on Rave Hollister....lol!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Which "they" are you referring to?
> 
> I was responding to Dad4'a claim "I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak" in response to a scholarly review article that said there was no such evidence.
> 
> Just looking for clarity.


Clarity in here?


----------



## whatithink (Jul 21, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Higher prices related to supply chain disruptions will change in a downward manner once the disruptions are minimized/gone. That said they will still be higher because of our current inflation. And that inflation is absolutely is a result of our printing/spending money.
> 
> That spending will also come back to haunt their constituents as well...assuming they went on the wild spending spree we are doing.
> 
> I fully agree on this one. Much of what they are peddling as infrastructure has nothing to do with infrastructure. But by calling it infrastructure many people assume that is what it is. And unfortunately the press is rather uninterested in calling out what they really want to do.


Printing money via quantitative easing didn't drive inflation for the last decade. I linked to a breakdown of Covid spending and again, not driving inflation imv.

I agree on the supply chain piece.

The level of national debt this is all adding to is interesting, or maybe just the level of national debt is a different conversation. Any fiscal conservatism seems to go out the window when politicians get power. Borrowing during Covid is 100% justified. Borrowing annually or in a booming economy with no intention of ever balancing the books isn't.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Printing money via quantitative easing didn't drive inflation for the last decade. I linked to a breakdown of Covid spending and again, not driving inflation imv


The problem with easing is...

1) government likes it because it lowers the cost of borrowing. They have kept rates artificially low now for some time. They aren't printing money...but have created a scenario where they can spend more (borrow more) for less money.
2) This in turn has harmed savers.. ie retired individuals who want less risky investments.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Any fiscal conservatism seems to go out the window when politicians get power.


The problem we have is that politicians do not get elected to save money. You get elected to "fix a problem" which inevitably costs money.

The Dems are the worst in this category. The Repubs just get there later..ie they also want to solve problems but their solutions are less expensive. But in the end the Repubs are spending money they don't have.. the difference is they tend to do it at a slower rate.

Either option is irresponsible.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 21, 2021)

By the way be it printing money or quantitative easing...neither option benefits the public.

Both in their own ways allow politicians to spend money they don't have in order to further their political fortunes.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem we have is that politicians do not get elected to save money. You get elected to "fix a problem" which inevitably costs money.
> 
> The Dems are the worst in this category. The Repubs just get there later..ie they also want to solve problems but their solutions are less expensive. But in the end the Repubs are spending money they don't have.. the difference is they tend to do it at a slower rate.
> 
> Either option is irresponsible.


I'd agree that both are problematic. They are equally bad but in different ways. I would characterize it differently mind, i.e. The Ds want to increase revenue (taxes) and expenses, driving up borrowing, whereas the Repubs want to reduce revenue (taxes) while spending the same or slightly more, driving up borrowing. There's also the spending priorities obviously.

I note one item of contention in the infrastructure negotiations is more investment in the IRS so that they can conduct more audits. Its estimated they could bring in another $1T over 10-15 years, just doing that. The contention is whether to invest the money, bizarrely I've not read any contention over the estimate they could bring in.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way be it printing money or quantitative easing...neither option benefits the public.
> 
> Both in their own ways allow politicians to spend money they don't have in order to further their political fortunes.


If they drive economic stability, then they do benefit everyone. They've been used by governments worldwide for the last decade to ease the global economy out of the last crash.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 22, 2021)

whatithink said:


> If they drive economic stability, then they do benefit everyone. They've been used by governments worldwide for the last decade to ease the global economy out of the last crash.


I think the problem is we spend way to much money. That will come back to haunt us. I don't just refer to the past year and a half either. 

A substantial portion of our budget goes to financing the debt. The gov has keep rates artificially low now for some time. At some point rates have to go back up which means an even larger portion of the budget has to go towards just paying that. 

It isn't a good long term recipe for success.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The COVID lab-leak hypothesis: what scientists do and don’t know
> 
> 
> Nature examines arguments that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab in China, and the science behind them.
> ...


I thought the world was the lab.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

espola said:


> "Possibility remains' is not scientific evidence.


Nonsense


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Well here is part of their non scientific/false statement.
> 
> "Within the context of rising COVID-19 infection rates, student-athletes are a *particularly vulnerable stakeholder group*"
> 
> CDC stats show that college age individuals have basically zero risk from covid.


You mustn't question Faucspola and the media.  You may laugh at them though.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Here's a breakdown of the US COVID spend. I don't see how this is an inflation driver. The only one that might be is the direct payments, but that's less than a quarter of the total, and for everyone who didn't need that, there's probably someone else who did to pay rent/mortgage etc., i.e. every day bills and not just blowing it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Price inflation is always driven by an increase in the supply of money via QE or "money printing".  Call it whatever you want.  More people with more money or access to more money, competing for low or the same supply of goods and services is what drives up prices.  And to your point regarding inflation being a good thing, I agree.  It limits consumption, allowing supply replenishment.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I fully agree on this one. Much of what they are peddling as infrastructure has nothing to do with infrastructure. But by calling it infrastructure many people assume that is what it is. And unfortunately the press is rather uninterested in calling out what they really want to do.


Money is fungible.  And fungible is a euphemism for Asymmetric information and moral hazard.  Especially when it comes to government spending.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> View attachment 11127


I usually add a lot of Arare to my popcorn.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Inflation is getting real bad folks.  The new goal for super rich dad is to now go up to space for $21,000,000 for freaking 10 minutes.  Anyway, I just stay home and mine my business and hope things get better.  My pal told me about combo deals now at Edwards.  BTW, it's been theraputic for me to sit back and watch all this play out.  Remember, it's not a "Us vs Them."  Its always US!!!!  Stay thirsty for the truth my friends and never be afraid to ask questions
> 
> View attachment 11128


Cineopolis has been charging these prices for at least the last 3 years prior to Corona.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Printing money via quantitative easing didn't drive inflation for the last decade. I linked to a breakdown of Covid spending and again, not driving inflation imv.


Increasing the money supply = "inflation" of the money supply.  Inflation of the money supply always drives an increase in prices.  If you're citing CPI as proof that QE didn't drive inflation for the last decade I might agree with you.  But it did drive up or steady Bond and home prices in that are more important to banks and you and I as well.  Your covid spending link proves it.  Look at the 3.25 Trillion dollar Fed Reserve purchase:

*New round of quantitative easing to support the economy and increase the money supply by purchasing additional long-term U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities.*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem we have is that politicians do not get elected to save money. You get elected to "fix a problem" which inevitably costs money.
> 
> The Dems are the worst in this category. The Repubs just get there later..ie they also want to solve problems but their solutions are less expensive. But in the end the Repubs are spending money they don't have.. the difference is they tend to do it at a slower rate.
> 
> Either option is irresponsible.


I'm not against incentivizing debt as long as it is good income generating debt.  Cash is not king.  Cash Flow is King.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> By the way be it printing money or quantitative easing...neither option benefits the public.
> 
> Both in their own ways allow politicians to spend money they don't have in order to further their political fortunes.


The bigger problem is that we don't teach personal finance in a meaningful way.  As previously posted, cash is not king.  Cashflow is King.  But how do you do that if money is too expensive (interest rates).  It's still possible if tax incentives and appreciation is favorable.  Or if you understand how to leverage simple interest against amortized interest to pay off a mortgage in 5 to 7 years as opposed to 30, you get to use banks instead of having them use you as much.  That's been super fun for me.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

whatithink said:


> If they drive economic stability, then they do benefit everyone. They've been used by governments worldwide for the last decade to ease the global economy out of the last crash.


QE has never driven economic stability.  It may benefit everyone, but does so unequally, fueling the inequality narrative.  But the inequality narrative lacks credibility because it ignores age and time.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 22, 2021)

whatithink said:


> If they drive economic stability, then they do benefit everyone. They've been used by governments worldwide for the last decade to ease the global economy out of the last crash.


Did it benefit the U.S. Women's Soccer Team and their claims of inequality?  Anyway, we are deeply uneducated in personal finance.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 22, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Yes.  Herd immunity and therapies being overlooked.  My buddy Duane turned 89 this year.  Caught COVID last November and was touch and go until he got some prednisone to sort him out.  Celebrated his 89th about a month ago!


Glad they made it.  If they were reaching for the corticosteroids to quell the inflammation from what I understand that means it was a serious situation.  Now they should be on the immunized side of the herd, hopefully with no longer term damage.  Not sure I'd recommend that as a general approach for immunity however.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 23, 2021)

espola said:


> What does CGG CGG have to do with the covid vaccine?
> 
> Please try to keep it simple - I'm no biologist.


To add to what Dad4 posted.  The issue with the codons has to with the origin of Cov-2, not the vaccine.  The sequence of the CoV-2 genome has regions that are highly similar (but not identical) to known bat coronaviruses, and regions that are highly similar, but not identical, to coronaviruses isolated from pangolins.  It appears to be a chimera-a recombinant that fuses pieces of different coronavirus genomes together.  One of the recombination boundaries where Cov-2 switches from bat-like sequence to anteater-like sequence is right at the part of the genome that encodes the S protein.  At that breakpoint, or close to it, there are 12 nucleotides that are inserted that are found in neither known bat nor anteater genomes.  These 12 nucleotides include the two arginine codons from above. 

A diagram showing the putative recombination events can be found here, the "B" part is the most helpful.  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-78703-6/figures/2

How could such a chimeric virus come to be?  One scenario is that the cells of some unknown intermediate host was infected with both the bat and anteater viruses at the same time.  The viral replication cycle entails a mechanism that allows viral genomes to recombine readily, more easily than can be achieved through current genetic engineering approaches. Recombinant viruses can exhibit new properties, and this is one of the main ways in which coronaviruses are thought to "make the jump" from one host to another-like humans.  SARS, MERS. What about the strange 12 nucleotide insertion?  Given it's placement, it could occur in a related pangolin C-virus that has not yet been discovered.  Alternatively, insertions at recombination junctions, while unusual, are not unprecedented.  In this view the "CGGCGG" arose as part of a recombination process.

To understand the lab escape theory, it's important to know that the Wuhan Institute specifically studies the types of events that allow non-human C-viruses to make the jump to humans.  For example, they would be co-infecting bat and pangolin C-viruses as part of trying to understand the process.  So the lab escape proponents say "look, CoV-2 started in Wuhan, the Wuhan institute studies bat and anteater C-viruses, Cov-2 just happens to look like a complex recombination event involving those viruses, plus it has an extra bit (the 12 nucleotide insertion) that could be viewed as having been purposefully engineered into that site.  That's a lot of coincidences".  My take on that is sure, but in either case the stars had to align just so to produce this virus.  That alignment almost certainly reflects just the right sequence of viral recombination events.  That sequence of events could have occurred just as readily in nature as in a tissue culture flask, and the 12 nucleotide insertion can be explained either way.  So, I'm agnostic.  

Now there is information that apparently the IC has intercepts alluding to some kind of whoops moment.  We'll see if anything more concrete ever comes of it.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 23, 2021)

espola said:


> " a double CGG at just the right spot to help it attack human cells."
> 
> How does that work?


The double CGG adds two arginines onto a part of the S protein.  The S protein does two things.  In the variant of the S protein found in Cov-2 (and a number of other C-viruses) it binds to the ACE2 receptor; this is what basically targets the virus to particular cells, like in the aveolar region of your lungs.  The second thing that the S protein does is that it allows the membrane envelope surrounding the virus to fuse with cell membranes.  That is how the viral genome is released into the cell so it can replicate.  For complicated reasons, two Arg's at the site of insertion allow this fusion reaction to be much more efficient.

The classic view of how the S protein works is that the S binding the receptor is like the virus "knocking on the door". The the cell engulfs the viral particle, and changes occur that allow the S protein to mediate the fusion.  The S protein of CoV-2, however, almost certainly as a result of the inclusion of the two Arg's can efficiently fuse directly with the external membrane of the cell after it binds the receptor.  It doesn't so much as knock on the door as it kicks the door down.  As a result, viral S protein is left on the surface of the cell, which can potentially cause adjacent cells to fuse with one another; this is called a synctium.  Synciated tissue appears to be associated with the pathology of COVID19.

The two C-virus entry mechanisms are diagrammed here.  https://www.mdpi.com/2218-273X/10/9/1312/htm.  Scroll to Figure 1. CoV-2 appears to be able to efficiently exploit the mechanism on the right on the figure.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 23, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Glad they made it.  If they were reaching for the corticosteroids to quell the inflammation from what I understand that means it was a serious situation.  Now they should be on the immunized side of the herd, hopefully with no longer term damage.  Not sure I'd recommend that as a general approach for immunity however.


The "longer term damage" is being 89.  No doubt his immune system has rec'd a lot of viral updates over that period too.  A recommended approach for immunity is not the point I am making.  The Fear Industry has made immunity a binary decision with vaccines on one side and death on the other.  Any talk of therapies appear muted by the CDC and the Media.  Six of the 80+ y.o. folks that I know survived corona pre-vax.  All are doing well for being 80+.  None of them were in a LTCF.  If you have a choice, keep your parents out of those kill zones people.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 23, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> That alignment almost certainly reflects just the right sequence of viral recombination events.  That sequence of events could have occurred just as readily in nature as in a tissue culture flask, and the 12 nucleotide insertion can be explained either way.  So, I'm agnostic.


So we could have already been exposed but not exhibiting because our adaptive immune systems have rec'd the necessary updates?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 23, 2021)

The uk may have topped its curve out. Cases have been in decline the last 4 days despite reopening. Australia despite its ever stringent lockdown though still has a rising curb and is extending the lockdowns yet again.  Taiwan doesn’t have the delta spreading but even with the alpha is having a tough time getting back to zero…they are around 22 and still might manage to tap it down.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The uk may have topped its curve out. Cases have been in decline the last 4 days despite reopening. Australia despite its ever stringent lockdown though still has a rising curb and is extending the lockdowns yet again.  Taiwan doesn’t have the delta spreading but even with the alpha is having a tough time getting back to zero…they are around 22 and still might manage to tap it down.


And deaths?


----------



## whatithink (Jul 23, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> And deaths?


Cases down, hospitalizations up, deaths up - vs last week


----------



## whatithink (Jul 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The uk may have topped its curve out. Cases have been in decline the last 4 days despite reopening. Australia despite its ever stringent lockdown though still has a rising curb and is extending the lockdowns yet again.  Taiwan doesn’t have the delta spreading but even with the alpha is having a tough time getting back to zero…they are around 22 and still might manage to tap it down.


There are quite a few variables in the UK which are probably pretty unique. 

This article seems pretty balanced and points out a variety of those. The conclusion is that its too early to tell.









						Scientists cautious over whether fall in UK Covid cases is a trend
					

New reported cases are down despite rise in ONS figures, but effects of 19 July easing and school holidays yet to be seen




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 23, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Cases down, hospitalizations up, deaths up - vs last week
> 
> View attachment 11134


Given cases are up to almost the winter wave, and that if you are covid positive for any reason in the hospital you count as hospitalized (because they must treat your covid along with anything else) that’s actually very good. Vaccines working.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Given cases are up to almost the winter wave, and that if you are covid positive for any reason in the hospital you count as hospitalized (because they must treat your covid along with anything else) that’s actually very good. Vaccines working.


Who'd a thunk it - pity we have so many anti-vac peeps around.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 23, 2021)




----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Who'd a thunk it - pity we have so many anti-vac peeps around.


Based on personal experience, I knew the world had more than it needed of fucking idiots.  However, in a time of crisis, I didn't think they would voluntarily identify themselves.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

9th circuit has ruled newsom overstepped in shutting down private schools (both religious and non). Can shut down public but not private. Cannot set a zero capacity limit for them if allowing other things…implied a hybrid limitation might be ok but not a total shutdown if other things allowed open


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 9th circuit has ruled newsom overstepped in shutting down private schools (both religious and non). Can shut down public but not private. Cannot set a zero capacity limit for them if allowing other things…implied a hybrid limitation might be ok but not a total shutdown if other things allowed open


Friends of mine were plaintiffs in this case


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> *"I knew the world had more than it needed of fucking idiots."  *


From the heart that mouth speaks!!!!


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

*I hear Mel is making a new movie.  Oh man, this one is going to be a Bloodbuster!!!*


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> From the heart that mouth speaks!!!!


Who has 3 weeks in the pool?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Who'd a thunk it - pity we have so many anti-vac peeps around.


I actually chalk it up to the fact that the vast majority of people have no risk and therefor don't want to take a vaccine. 

The at risk group at 65+ age range is close to 90% vaccinated. That is the group that accounted for 80+% of all deaths. The rest at younger ages? Mainly people with serious health issues. 

I imagine if they had the stats for the under 65 age group who had serious health risks, you would find an extremely high vax rate there as well.


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I actually chalk it up to the fact that the vast majority of people have no risk and therefor don't want to take a vaccine.
> 
> The at risk group at 65+ age range is close to 90% vaccinated. That is the group that accounted for 80+% of all deaths. The rest at younger ages? Mainly people with serious health issues.
> 
> I imagine if they had the stats for the under 65 age group who had serious health risks, you would find an extremely high vax rate there as well.


There's a couple of fucking idiots right there.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

San Francisco positivity rate now the highest it’s been since the beginning: all those antivaxxers San Franciscans ruining it for the rest of us.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> There's a couple of fucking idiots right there.


The only idiot around here Magoo is you. And what’s worse you ain’t just an idiot but a fucking trolling ass as well. Love yah. G.


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> San Francisco positivity rate now the highest it’s been since the beginning: all those antivaxxers San Franciscans ruining it for the rest of us.


30% of San Francisco residents remain unvaccinated or partially vaccinated.





__





						COVID-19 vaccinations | San Francisco
					

Track the number of residents vaccinated and the number of doses administered in the city.




					sf.gov


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The only idiot around here Magoo is you. And what’s worse you ain’t just an idiot but a fucking trolling ass as well. Love yah. G.


Your schtick is obvious.   People are dying because of fucking idiots like you two.


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Inspiring words --


__
		http://instagr.am/p/CRr-e6Wj_8R/


----------



## whatithink (Jul 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I actually chalk it up to the fact that the vast majority of people have no risk and therefor don't want to take a vaccine.
> 
> The at risk group at 65+ age range is close to 90% vaccinated. That is the group that accounted for 80+% of all deaths. The rest at younger ages? Mainly people with serious health issues.
> 
> I imagine if they had the stats for the under 65 age group who had serious health risks, you would find an extremely high vax rate there as well.


Alternatively you stop the spread via vaccinations, you also stop the mutations if you stop the spread. Mutations could be milder or more serious. Mutations could be more dangerous to everyone irrespective of age or health, or not - we don't know as they haven't happened yet.

I guess its kind of like the "your body my choice" people who are now saying "my body my choice". But we should not be surprised because they never said "your body my choice but here's free healthcare so that we can get the infant mortality rate in this country to the lowest in the world versus #52 currently", i.e. I want to make a choice for you but I want you to be the only one impacted by it.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Alternatively you stop the spread via vaccinations, you also stop the mutations if you stop the spread. Mutations could be milder or more serious. Mutations could be more dangerous to everyone irrespective of age or health, or not - we don't know as they haven't happened yet.
> 
> I guess its kind of like the "your body my choice" people who are now saying "my body my choice". But we should not be surprised because they never said "your body my choice but here's free healthcare so that we can get the infant mortality rate in this country to the lowest in the world versus #52 currently", i.e. I want to make a choice for you but I want you to be the only one impacted by it.


There’s no reasonable chance of stopping mutations. We haven’t even been able to get rid of polio.  You really think vaccine uptake is going to be 100% eventually in the mess that is Afghanistan?  Japan and australia can’t even vaccinated their populations and Chile is relying on the China vaccine which is even more of a failure. Most of the worst won’t be vaccinated until 2022 and some parts of the world not even to 2023. Stop the mutations is a ridiculous pipe dream argument. And if we really cared about the world we’d be vaccinating the third world elderly before attempting to vaccinate our children.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> Your schtick is obvious.   People are dying because of fucking idiots like you two.


Fuck you Magoo and the idiot train you road here on.  Now that the other troll who shall not be named is gone you are the worst


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fuck you Magoo and the idiot train you road here on.  Now that the other troll who shall not be named is gone you are the worst


...rode...


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fuck you Magoo and the idiot train you road here on.  Now that the other troll who shall not be named is gone you are the worst


He's the same dude Grace.  He's just letting his true self be known to all of us.  This is the real EOTL.  Look how he writes now.  I was keeping an eye in the back of my head today at the polo fields for him and a few others who hate me for asking a few questions about this and that.  This guy is losing it big time.  I wonder why?


----------



## whatithink (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There’s no reasonable chance of stopping mutations. We haven’t even been able to get rid of polio.  You really think vaccine uptake is going to be 100% eventually in the mess that is Afghanistan?  Japan and australia can’t even vaccinated their populations and Chile is relying on the China vaccine which is even more of a failure. Most of the worst won’t be vaccinated until 2022 and some parts of the world not even to 2023. Stop the mutations is a ridiculous pipe dream argument. And if we really cared about the world we’d be vaccinating the third world elderly before attempting to vaccinate our children.


Actually, it would be difficult but not hard. It would be expensive but relatively cheap versus the trillions spent in the last 18 months. So we could certainly do it, but you are correct, we won't. Basically because we don't care.

Its a bit like climate change, and obviously I'm going on a complete tangent here. My prediction is that in 20 years or so, our children will hate us because we knew but did nothing, relatively speaking. In 40 years or so, our grandchildren will despise us. We won't be the greatest generation, we'll be the polar opposite. We have some difficult but doable choices. They will have no choice. Sad really, probably best not to dwell on it.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Actually, it would be difficult but not hard. It would be expensive but relatively cheap versus the trillions spent in the last 18 months. So we could certainly do it, but you are correct, we won't. Basically because we don't care.
> 
> Its a bit like climate change, and obviously I'm going on a complete tangent here. My prediction is that in 20 years or so, *our children will hate us* because we knew but did nothing, relatively speaking. In 40 years or so, our grandchildren will despise us. We won't be the greatest generation, we'll be the polar opposite. We have some difficult but doable choices. They will have no choice. Sad really, probably best not to dwell on it.


The kids are already pissed off dude and hate is next if the men are big whiners and scared all the time.  Eat healthy and exercise and all will be ok, that's what i think   I'm appalled at the wimps we have in this country.  They are not only wimps, they cheat all the time and buy their way to the front of the line.  I'm so proud of my dd btw.  She wanted this internship really bad but she was beaten out I guess by more qualified students.  Well, she has a very good friend who said his mom can get her the internship because she knows this person and that person and with a call, she can have what she desires.  My dd said, "no thank you, I want to earn it myself."  Now that is champion where I come from.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Actually, it would be difficult but not hard. It would be expensive but relatively cheap versus the trillions spent in the last 18 months. So we could certainly do it, but you are correct, we won't. Basically because we don't care.
> 
> Its a bit like climate change, and obviously I'm going on a complete tangent here. My prediction is that in 20 years or so, our children will hate us because we knew but did nothing, relatively speaking. In 40 years or so, our grandchildren will despise us. We won't be the greatest generation, we'll be the polar opposite. We have some difficult but doable choices. They will have no choice. Sad really, probably best not to dwell on it.


The problem isn’t money but capacity. It’s especially true since most govts don’t want az or j&j and moderna hasn’t done worldwide trials. They want the Pfizer. Pfizer has been a beast in all this and I’m surprised they’ve managed to beat all production and testing expectations (well some of my pharma friends aren’t so shocked…their culture rivals that of the most craziest win obsessed flight 1 teams). 

As for climate change you have the same problem: no good solutions.  Dismantling China and relegating India to perpetual poverty.  Population controls that even the Chinese have had to eliminate and create societal collapse.  No airline vacations, vastly reduced meat, limited hot showers and air con  for the first world. Oh and btw kill most of the dogs which are a real drain on the environment…they are a dead weight drag producing nothing of real value except on the occasional farm or police service.  Kids will hate you either way.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> He's the same dude Grace.  He's just letting his true self be known to all of us.  This is the real EOTL.  Look how he writes now.  I was keeping an eye in the back of my head today at the polo fields for him and a few others who hate me for asking a few questions about this and that.  This guy is losing it big time.  I wonder why?


Disagree. Eotl was a master troll. Espola can’t even do that well. He’s pathetic.


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem isn’t money but capacity. It’s especially true since most govts don’t want az or j&j and moderna hasn’t done worldwide trials. They want the Pfizer. Pfizer has been a beast in all this and I’m surprised they’ve managed to beat all production and testing expectations (well some of my pharma friends aren’t so shocked…their culture rivals that of the most craziest win obsessed flight 1 teams).
> 
> As for climate change you have the same problem: no good solutions.  Dismantling China and relegating India to perpetual poverty.  Population controls that even the Chinese have had to eliminate and create societal collapse.  No airline vacations, vastly reduced meat, limited hot showers and air con  for the first world. Oh and btw kill most of the dogs which are a real drain on the environment…they are a dead weight drag producing nothing of real value except on the occasional farm or police service.  Kids will hate you either way.


Nonsense.

And you know why.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem isn’t money but capacity. It’s especially true since most govts don’t want az or j&j and moderna hasn’t done worldwide trials. They want the Pfizer. Pfizer has been a beast in all this and I’m surprised they’ve managed to beat all production and testing expectations (well some of my pharma friends aren’t so shocked…their culture rivals that of the most craziest win obsessed flight 1 teams).
> 
> As for climate change you have the same problem: no good solutions.  Dismantling China and relegating India to perpetual poverty.  Population controls that even the Chinese have had to eliminate and create societal collapse.  No airline vacations, vastly reduced meat, limited hot showers and air con  for the first world. Oh and btw kill most of the dogs which are a real drain on the environment…they are a dead weight drag producing nothing of real value except on the occasional farm or police service.  Kids will hate you either way.


So, we each buy tons of plastic crap, eat lots of meat, and drive 10,000 miles a year because of China?

Not sure I follow your argument there.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> Nonsense.
> 
> And you know why.


Yes I do: you are a sad pathetic little man who thinks he’s actually quite clever but is probably one of the least original people I’ve ever met.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

CNN, Fox and her friends (in the media) are not showing what is going on around the world today.  This went from, please allow us two weeks so we can flatten the curve, to wear a mask until we get the vax.  No mask, no service, remember?  Then they told all my pals that if they took the Johnson or other jabs now, then no mask would be needed and you would be immune to the Rona and also be entered to win $1,000,000 and other prizes.  Now their saying wear mask, take two shots and boosters whenever we say to get boosters and no lotto tickets either.  WTF is up with that?  The fun is over folks.  Not playing for prizes anymore. They mean serious business now.  I swear I pose no danger to you who have already got the shots.  I'm not sick at all and in the best shape of my life.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> So, we each buy tons of plastic crap, eat lots of meat, and drive 10,000 miles a year because of China?
> 
> Not sure I follow your argument there.


China is responsible for 27% of all emissions and has gotten rich selling us the tons of plastic crap. They also want and think they deserve to eat the tons of meat and have the fancy visits to Paris too. You gonna tell them they can’t have that?

What of the Indians. Have been there 2x and the poverty in some places is horrifying. You wanna tell them they can’t have the good life? 

Any solution which ignores China and India (as well as the us plane travel, meat consumption and dogs) is just feel good nonsense (kind of like your mask fantasy).  We can solve global warming but it would be painful.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Disagree. Eotl was a master troll. Espola can’t even do that well. He’s pathetic.


OK, you might be right.  They come from the same cloth?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

The idea that healthy people are endangering others simply by breathing is one of the biggest scams in the history of the world.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> China is responsible for 27% of all emissions and has gotten rich selling us the tons of plastic crap. They also want and think they deserve to eat the tons of meat and have the fancy visits to Paris too. You gonna tell them they can’t have that?
> 
> What of the Indians. Have been there 2x and the poverty in some places is horrifying. You wanna tell them they can’t have the good life?
> 
> Any solution which ignores China and India (as well as the us plane travel, meat consumption and dogs) is just feel good nonsense (kind of like your mask fantasy).  We can solve global warming but it would be painful.


The biggest problem btw is that there are too many people on the planet.  The problem is when a country goes into population decline all sorts of nasty things start happening.  The Chinese have gone from a 1 child policy to a 3 child policy and begging people to have kids

And you all are hypocrites too because you either had kids or are in the business of kids and in so doing committed the 1 act which is most responsible for destroying the planet: having kids


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

These are crazy times my fellow Americans.  JB is not the original JB, we all know that by now.  Dude was actually denying drinking the blood of kids the other day and wasn't even asked the question if he was actually drinking the blood of children to get high.  Dr. F is not the same guy either, MOO! Watch this.....


----------



## dad4 (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> China is responsible for 27% of all emissions and has gotten rich selling us the tons of plastic crap. They also want and think they deserve to eat the tons of meat and have the fancy visits to Paris too. You gonna tell them they can’t have that?
> 
> What of the Indians. Have been there 2x and the poverty in some places is horrifying. You wanna tell them they can’t have the good life?
> 
> Any solution which ignores China and India (as well as the us plane travel, meat consumption and dogs) is just feel good nonsense (kind of like your mask fantasy).  We can solve global warming but it would be painful.


If we are talking climate, we should start with a mirror.

China has 27% of emissions, spread over 1.4 billion people.  Much of that is the plastic crap we ask them to make for us.  Person for person, they are about average.

I agree China needs to cut back.  But, in saying so, I am acting like a 500 pound man telling other people to diet.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The problem isn’t money but capacity. It’s especially true since most govts don’t want az or j&j and moderna hasn’t done worldwide trials. They want the Pfizer. Pfizer has been a beast in all this and I’m surprised they’ve managed to beat all production and testing expectations (well some of my pharma friends aren’t so shocked…their culture rivals that of the most craziest win obsessed flight 1 teams).
> 
> As for climate change you have the same problem: no good solutions.  Dismantling China and relegating India to perpetual poverty.  Population controls that even the Chinese have had to eliminate and create societal collapse.  No airline vacations, vastly reduced meat, limited hot showers and air con  for the first world. Oh and btw kill most of the dogs which are a real drain on the environment…they are a dead weight drag producing nothing of real value except on the occasional farm or police service.  Kids will hate you either way.


So yeah, difficult but not hard. If money isn't a problem, then capacity is a choice. Doable but we won't.

Climate change is the same. We have every excuse in the world as to why we can't, until we will have no choice but to do far worse, to ourselves, because we no longer have a choice. The poor (everywhere) will be the worse impacted. BTW, in a blue sky world, there is no need for any person on this planet to be without food or shelter or access to reasonable health care or education. Unfortunately we're in charge.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If we are talking climate, we should start with a mirror.


Let's jump to another topic real quick dad the teacher.  I would love to get Professor Espola to chime in and also one of the great scientist in Grace to give an answer and of course Hound or K & S  

Q. Is the Earth flat ((like a hockey puck)) or one big round ball in space?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If we are talking climate, we should start with a mirror.
> 
> China has 27% of emissions, spread over 1.4 billion people.  Much of that is the plastic crap we ask them to make for us.  Person for person, they are about average.
> 
> I agree China needs to cut back.  But, in saying so, I am acting like a 500 pound man telling other people to diet.


I’ve never put much weight in the set the good example argument. Yeah we’d have to cut back. You start by not having kids (you have a kid…work on her to get tubes tied if you really feel this way). The other choices are painful too. And they’d be all for naught because the Chinese want to be us let alone go back to being poor.   You committed the worst act possible for global warming so you aren’t setting the good example either…start by telling us your kid has entered a nunnery.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> So yeah, difficult but not hard. If money isn't a problem, then capacity is a choice. Doable but we won't.
> 
> Climate change is the same. We have every excuse in the world as to why we can't, until we will have no choice but to do far worse, to ourselves, because we no longer have a choice. The poor (everywhere) will be the worse impacted. BTW, in a blue sky world, there is no need for any person on this planet to be without food or shelter or access to reasonable health care or education. Unfortunately we're in charge.


We don’t because when you nationalize Pfizer and start drafting people to work there people get upset and you kill the golden goose like Stalin did in the Ukraine

Similarly when you take away people hamburgers, shoot their dogs and tell people to sterilize their kids they have a tendency to get the pitchforks. Why are you guys here if you care about global warming? Why did you have kids?  Why are you driving (the horror) to soccer tournaments?


----------



## whatithink (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We don’t because when you nationalize Pfizer and start drafting people to work there people get upset and you kill the golden goose like Stalin did in the Ukraine
> 
> Similarly when you take away people hamburgers, shoot their dogs and tell people to sterilize their kids they have a tendency to get the pitchforks. Why are you guys here if you care about global warming? Why did you have kids?  Why are you driving (the horror) to soccer tournaments?


You are right obviously. The only solution is to nationalize Pfizer. There couldn't be another solution that adds tens of  billions to their bottom line that would work. Who could possibly figure out an alternative! 

The current population level is 100% sustainable. The problem is consumption, what's consumed & how its produced. Its perfectly feasible to have good quality life and low carbon footprint. Its all about choices. Some are easy, some are not. Low to zero meat consumption, electric cars, solar power, buy local as much as possible, energy efficient models, water efficient products etc.

You're right though, we should all just live it up. There is no hope because nobody else will change, so why should anyone bother.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> You are right obviously. The only solution is to nationalize Pfizer. There couldn't be another solution that adds tens of  billions to their bottom line that would work. Who could possibly figure out an alternative!
> 
> The current population level is 100% sustainable. The problem is consumption, what's consumed & how its produced. Its perfectly feasible to have good quality life and low carbon footprint. Its all about choices. Some are easy, some are not. Low to zero meat consumption, electric cars, solar power, buy local as much as possible, energy efficient models, water efficient products etc.
> 
> You're right though, we should all just live it up. There is no hope because nobody else will change, so why should anyone bother.


Now you are engaging in blue pill fantasy. Pfizer wants to make a ton of money.  If they could do it by gearing up they’d be thrilled. They absolutely would.  Chestertons fence: then why don’t they?  It’s because barring force there are certain limitations in the ability to rev up production.  But money and customers is not the problem. 

Re climate change you are perpetuating the myth that it’s easy. How do you think Americans will react to having no hamburgers…going back to meatless tuesdays?  Electric cars help but the batteries are also a drag on the environment so it’s not all a help. Solar power?  You have t heard the California commercials asking us to conserve from 4-7 because of the problems with solar production…if you really felt this way you’d go nuclear.  

You’re easy painless solutions don’t get us there.  To address it even on the us end it’s painful: less meat, less kids (and the resulting economic stress), less planes, less transport of goods, more nuclear, shoot the dogs, less consumer goods.  Yeah they’ll love that. Blue pill fantasy. You couldn’t even do the 1 thing which would most help: not have a kid.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Now you are engaging in blue pill fantasy. Pfizer wants to make a ton of money.  If they could do it by gearing up they’d be thrilled. They absolutely would.  Chestertons fence: then why don’t they?  It’s because barring force there are certain limitations in the ability to rev up production.  But money and customers is not the problem.
> 
> Re climate change you are perpetuating the myth that it’s easy. How do you think Americans will react to having no hamburgers…going back to meatless tuesdays?  Electric cars help but the batteries are also a drag on the environment so it’s not all a help. Solar power?  You have t heard the California commercials asking us to conserve from 4-7 because of the problems with solar production…if you really felt this way you’d go nuclear.
> 
> You’re easy painless solutions don’t get us there.  To address it even on the us end it’s painful: less meat, less kids (and the resulting economic stress), less planes, less transport of goods, more nuclear, shoot the dogs, less consumer goods.  Yeah they’ll love that. Blue pill fantasy. You couldn’t even do the 1 thing which would most help: not have a kid.


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes I do: you are a sad pathetic little man who thinks he’s actually quite clever but is probably one of the least original people I’ve ever met.


Least original?  I admit I don't have your facility to just make things up.


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Now you are engaging in blue pill fantasy. Pfizer wants to make a ton of money.  If they could do it by gearing up they’d be thrilled. They absolutely would.  Chestertons fence: then why don’t they?  It’s because barring force there are certain limitations in the ability to rev up production.  But money and customers is not the problem.
> 
> Re climate change you are perpetuating the myth that it’s easy. How do you think Americans will react to having no hamburgers…going back to meatless tuesdays?  Electric cars help but the batteries are also a drag on the environment so it’s not all a help. Solar power?  You have t heard the California commercials asking us to conserve from 4-7 because of the problems with solar production…if you really felt this way you’d go nuclear.
> 
> You’re easy painless solutions don’t get us there.  To address it even on the us end it’s painful: less meat, less kids (and the resulting economic stress), less planes, less transport of goods, more nuclear, shoot the dogs, less consumer goods.  Yeah they’ll love that. Blue pill fantasy. You couldn’t even do the 1 thing which would most help: not have a kid.


You're right.  Doing nothing is much easier.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 24, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> I thought the world was the lab.


I guess I think yes and no.  No, in that there are no single variable controls.  No, in that you don't get to repeat many things that your gut tells you are meaningful.  Yes, in that much of what we do seems double blind.  Yes, in that it's a marvelous place to be.  Yes, in that, despite all the obstacles, it is possible to find passable answers to difficult questions.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Now you are engaging in blue pill fantasy. Pfizer wants to make a ton of money.  If they could do it by gearing up they’d be thrilled. They absolutely would.  Chestertons fence: then why don’t they?  It’s because barring force there are certain limitations in the ability to rev up production.  But money and customers is not the problem.
> 
> Re climate change you are perpetuating the myth that it’s easy. How do you think Americans will react to having no hamburgers…going back to meatless tuesdays?  Electric cars help but the batteries are also a drag on the environment so it’s not all a help. Solar power?  You have t heard the California commercials asking us to conserve from 4-7 because of the problems with solar production…if you really felt this way you’d go nuclear.
> 
> You’re easy painless solutions don’t get us there.  To address it even on the us end it’s painful: less meat, less kids (and the resulting economic stress), less planes, less transport of goods, more nuclear, shoot the dogs, less consumer goods.  Yeah they’ll love that. Blue pill fantasy. You couldn’t even do the 1 thing which would most help: not have a kid.


So do nothing and end up in your worse case scenario. There's pros and cons to everything, unfortunately we are engaging in the cons more than the pros, so we're on a path to your end state. We don't have to be but too many people just focus on what we can't do, or what might be difficult, or what they might have to give up (God forbid). That's why I said, we don't care. Its not even that we don't care enough.

Ultimately we can decide or the planet will decide for us, which I guess is also our choice.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

Bill Gates Briefing to CIA April 2015
					

None




					www.bitchute.com
				




This video in 05 gives me the creeps and the chills.  I remember when my brain lit up like a Christmas tree when I read my first religious text.

Light that brain and get living everyone.  Open the other 90% with the key of love.  Listen to this from the Youngbloods and learn the key to understanding


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> Least original?  I admit I don't have your facility to just make things up.


Eh Magoo you are even the worst of the trolls…meaning they all do it better than you


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> So do nothing and end up in your worse case scenario. There's pros and cons to everything, unfortunately we are engaging in the cons more than the pros, so we're on a path to your end state. We don't have to be but too many people just focus on what we can't do, or what might be difficult, or what they might have to give up (God forbid). That's why I said, we don't care. Its not even that we don't care enough.
> 
> Ultimately we can decide or the planet will decide for us, which I guess is also our choice.


We have to do something!  X is something. Let’s do x

See the fallacy. You can do things that make your feelings feel better but nothing you do is going to change what going to happen. That was up to the boomers. YOU could have helped by not having children (or a dog if you have one) but you chose not to.  So clearly you don’t care much either. And unless you are going to practice what you preach, stop lecturing the rest of us. I don’t do feelings and when you are ready to have a serious discussions of sacrifice including putting your genetic future on the table, then we’ll talk


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We have to do something!  X is something. Let’s do x
> 
> See the fallacy. You can do things that make your feelings feel better but nothing you do is going to change what going to happen. That was up to the boomers. YOU could have helped by not having children (or a dog if you have one) but you chose not to.  So clearly you don’t care much either. And unless you are going to practice what you preach, stop lecturing the rest of us. I don’t do feelings and when you are ready to have a serious discussions of sacrifice including putting your genetic future on the table, then we’ll talk


You blame "the boomers" as if it were a monolithic decision.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> You blame "the boomers" as if it were a monolithic decision.


As I recall you have a few kids, maybe a couple of grandkids and a cat in the mix.  You are not only clueless, stupid and unoriginal but the worst of hypocrites.


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As I recall you have a few kids, maybe a couple of grandkids and a cat in the mix.  You are not only clueless, stupid and unoriginal but the worst of hypocrites.


It is possible to have children in a sustainable way.  I'm not surprised that you don't know that.

For instance, one could delay having children until later in life.  By simple mathematics, if every woman had no more than one daughter, the population would stabilize in one generation.   

And I have neither grandchildren nor a  cat.


----------



## whatithink (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We have to do something!  X is something. Let’s do x
> 
> See the fallacy. You can do things that make your feelings feel better but nothing you do is going to change what going to happen. That was up to the boomers. YOU could have helped by not having children (or a dog if you have one) but you chose not to.  So clearly you don’t care much either. And unless you are going to practice what you preach, stop lecturing the rest of us. I don’t do feelings and when you are ready to have a serious discussions of sacrifice including putting your genetic future on the table, then we’ll talk


So it was the boomers fault and now we have to kill all the dogs and sterilize all the kids. Nothing else will work. Got it. Thanks for your wisdom.

I do have kids, but did I _*have *_kids, oh wise one? If I do, have I 1, 2 or 5. If I have 2, say a boy and a girl, is that not a sustainable number?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> So it was the boomers fault and now we have to kill all the dogs and sterilize all the kids. Nothing else will work. Got it. Thanks for your wisdom.
> 
> I do have kids, but did I _*have *_kids, oh wise one? If I do, have I 1, 2 or 5. If I have 2, say a boy and a girl, is that not a sustainable number?





espola said:


> It is possible to have children in a sustainable way.  I'm not surprised that you don't know that.
> 
> For instance, one could delay having children until later in life.  By simple mathematics, if every woman had no more than one daughter, the population would stabilize in one generation.
> 
> And I have neither grandchildren nor a  cat.


No it’s not because you’d have to offset the population increases in the third world. You clearly have no appreciation for the scope of the problem.  1 child maybe but with longer lives definitely not 2 and definitely not a pet such as espolas cat. 

There are other solutions too such as collapsing the western economies in violent Marxist revolution or a pandemic that actually takes a substantial chunk of the population, but short of someone figuring out what to do about India and China, the rest you are just talking about bandaids. We are talking about effectively reverting to either pre industrial outputs or preindustrial populations.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No it’s not because you’d have to offset the population increases in the third world. You clearly have no appreciation for the scope of the problem.  1 child maybe but with longer lives definitely not 2 and definitely not a pet such as espolas cat.
> 
> There are other solutions too such as collapsing the western economies in violent Marxist revolution or a pandemic that actually takes a substantial chunk of the population, but short of someone figuring out what to do about India and China, the rest you are just talking about bandaids. We are talking about effectively reverting to either pre industrial outputs or preindustrial populations.


Actually the thing most likely to mitigate all this is technology but govt investment has so far been investing in vanilla crony businesses like solar panels.   It requires a game changer like fusion nuclear energy, large cheap efficient battery retention for solar, or warp drive


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As I recall you have a few kids, maybe a couple of grandkids and a cat in the mix.  You are not only clueless, stupid and unoriginal but the worst of hypocrites.


Grace is on fire today and Espola and his cat are good.  You go girl!!!


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

whatithink said:


> So it was the boomers fault and now we have to kill all the dogs and sterilize all the kids. Nothing else will work. Got it. Thanks for your wisdom.
> 
> I do have kids, but did I _*have *_kids, oh wise one? If I do, have I 1, 2 or 5. If I have 2, say a boy and a girl, is that not a sustainable number?


You do best with strawmen arguments, don't you?


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No it’s not because you’d have to offset the population increases in the third world. You clearly have no appreciation for the scope of the problem.  1 child maybe but with longer lives definitely not 2 and definitely not a pet such as espolas cat.
> 
> There are other solutions too such as collapsing the western economies in violent Marxist revolution or a pandemic that actually takes a substantial chunk of the population, but short of someone figuring out what to do about India and China, the rest you are just talking about bandaids. We are talking about effectively reverting to either pre industrial outputs or preindustrial populations.


Think globally.  Act locally.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> ...rode...


My thought exactly, speaking of fucking idiots, lol!


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Actually the thing most likely to mitigate all this is technology but govt investment has so far been investing in vanilla crony businesses like solar panels.   It requires a game changer like fusion nuclear energy, large cheap efficient battery retention for solar, or warp drive


What's your problem with solar panels?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Eh Magoo you are even the worst of the trolls…meaning they all do it better than you


A woman scorned . . .


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> What's your problem with solar panels?


You can’t store it. If you have to tell Californians to shut down their air conditioning from 4-7 when they are just getting home into their hot houses it’s not much of a solution. You could go nuclear but that has obvious problems too.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> My thought exactly, speaking of fucking idiots, lol!


iPhone with spotty WiFi. I’m at a resort bbq (for a wedding) where only 1 family out of 50 wearing masks and we just finished all you can eat steak and lobster.   Most families have 3 generations, 40+ kids here and we are the darkest people.  Met some rando drunks from zona just learning to ride and we toasted “f fauci”. You guys would be horrified.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> A woman scorned . . .


You see…even that is better than Magoos usual…good job…you are good at what you do, for whatever that is worth.


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You can’t store it. If you have to tell Californians to shut down their air conditioning from 4-7 when they are just getting home into their hot houses it’s not much of a solution. You could go nuclear but that has obvious problems too.


You can't store it?  Any energy can be stored.  Current methods in use or development include chemical batteries (there is even a line item on the California ISO daily charts for it  http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html  -- near the bottom of the page), pumping water uphill to retrieve the energy later by reversing the pump as a generator, spinning up flywheels, or compressing air.

Nuclear's biggest problems have been managerial and political, including such examples as Chernobyl and San Onofre.  The Fukushima reactors failed after the earthquake and tsunami because of a simple design error in the auxiliary equipment -- if the standby pumps had not failed they would all be operational today.

And then there is the Gates-backed nuclear reactor design -- no chance of a steam explosion or hydrogen fire because the working fluid is liquid sodium.  https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/bill-gates-terrapower-is-building-next-generation-nuclear-power.html


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> iPhone with spotty WiFi. I’m at a resort bbq (for a wedding) where only 1 family out of 50 wearing masks and we just finished all you can eat steak and lobster.   Most families have 3 generations, 40+ kids here and we are the darkest people.  Met some rando drunks from zona just learning to ride and we toasted “f fauci”. You guys would be horrified.


And yet there you are.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> And yet there you are.


Proud of it. Having a great time.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> You can't store it?  Any energy can be stored.  Current methods in use or development include chemical batteries (there is even a line item on the California ISO daily charts for it  http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html  -- near the bottom of the page), pumping water uphill to retrieve the energy later by reversing the pump as a generator, spinning up flywheels, or compressing air.
> 
> Nuclear's biggest problems have been managerial and political, including such examples as Chernobyl and San Onofre.  The Fukushima reactors failed after the earthquake and tsunami because of a simple design error in the auxiliary equipment -- if the standby pumps had not failed they would all be operational today.
> 
> And then there is the Gates-backed nuclear reactor design -- no chance of a steam explosion or hydrogen fire because the working fluid is liquid sodium.  https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/bill-gates-terrapower-is-building-next-generation-nuclear-power.html


Just wait bro when the truth hits you and Husker Po in the face...lol!  I see Husker poo came out to help you go after another woman.  What losers.


----------



## espola (Jul 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Proud of it. Having a great time.


See my comment above about self-reporting idiots.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 24, 2021)

espola said:


> See my comment above about self-reporting idiots.


Which is what started this exchange: that you are the real idiot and a very poor troll indeed.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> iPhone with spotty WiFi. I’m at a resort bbq (for a wedding) where only 1 family out of 50 wearing masks and we just finished all you can eat steak and lobster.   Most families have 3 generations, 40+ kids here and we are the darkest people.  Met some rando drunks from zona just learning to ride and we toasted “f fauci”. You guys would be horrified.


I own a home in Arizona, more than half the people wear masks and are smart about things . . . just saying.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 25, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Just wait bro when the truth hits you and Husker Po in the face...lol!  I see Husker poo came out to help you go after another woman.  What losers.


“The truth” Lol! And do you see that a “woman” needs special compensation concerning her opinion? Do you see personal identifiers as a way to define how you feel people should be treated?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Cases down, hospitalizations up, deaths up - vs last week
> 
> View attachment 11134


Not a bad IFR.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

whatithink said:


> There are quite a few variables in the UK which are probably pretty unique.
> 
> This article seems pretty balanced and points out a variety of those. The conclusion is that its too early to tell.
> 
> ...


Never too early to look at IFR.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Based on personal experience, I knew the world had more than it needed of fucking idiots.  However, in a time of crisis, I didn't think they would voluntarily identify themselves.


They're not.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

whatithink said:


> Who'd a thunk it - pity we have so many anti-vac peeps around.


at .0001 IFR you don't have to be anti-vac.  Just be pro-immune system.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I actually chalk it up to the fact that the vast majority of people have no risk and therefor don't want to take a vaccine.
> 
> The at risk group at 65+ age range is close to 90% vaccinated. That is the group that accounted for 80+% of all deaths. The rest at younger ages? Mainly people with serious health issues.
> 
> I imagine if they had the stats for the under 65 age group who had serious health risks, you would find an extremely high vax rate there as well.


Imagine that.  And high risk folks would be free to choose how they would mitigate risk by social distancing, mask wearing, optimum diet, exercise, meditation, alt meds, etc.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

espola said:


> There's a couple of fucking idiots right there.


Easy Vaxspola.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 25, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> at .0001 IFR you don't have to be anti-vac.  Just be pro-immune system.


It's all about the incredible immune system our body provides each of us *IF* we *choose* to take care of our bodies.  175lbs from 218 Bruddah.  Veggies, fruit and nuts.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Fuck you Magoo and the idiot train you road here on.  Now that the other troll who shall not be named is gone you are the worst


Same troll? All this time out of circulation and now “mild mannered” Magoo transforms. Seems like frustration eroded a multi-aliased, misanthropic troll’s self-discipline.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Based on personal experience, I knew the world had more than it needed of fucking idiots.  However, in a time of crisis, I didn't think they would voluntarily identify themselves.





espola said:


> Your schtick is obvious.   People are dying because of fucking idiots like you two.


Based on your post above, I knew the world had more than it needed of fucking idiots.  They voluntarily and unknowingly identify themselves in times of crisis.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> It's all about the incredible immune system our body provides each of us *IF* we *choose* to take care of our bodies.  175lbs from 218 Bruddah.  Veggies, fruit and nuts.


Nice job E.  Don't forget your daily allowance of red wine.  Two 5 oz. glasses.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

espola said:


> See my comment above about self-reporting idiots.


Probably happens more than you think eh?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 25, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Nice job E.  Don't forget your daily allowance of red wine.  Two 5 oz. glasses.


Thanks bro.  Love me some red wine bruddah


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 25, 2021)

Many people here and elsewhere in the Southeast are turning down Covid-19 vaccines because they are angry that President Donald Trump lost the election and sick of Democrats in Washington thinking they know what’s best. State and local public health officials have struggled to combat that deep-rooted obstinance.









						In Alabama and Louisiana, partisan opposition to vaccine surges alongside Delta variant — POLITICO
					

Many people are turning down Covid vaccines because they are angry that President Donald Trump lost the election and sick of Democrats thinking they know what’s best.




					apple.news


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Many people here and elsewhere in the Southeast are turning down Covid-19 vaccines because they are angry that President Donald Trump lost the election and sick of Democrats in Washington thinking they know what’s best. State and local public health officials have struggled to combat that deep-rooted obstinance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Racist


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 25, 2021)

Gee it’s about time, how much suffering could have been avoided?









						I’m happy about the GOP vaccine pivot. I will never forgive how long it took
					

An abrupt uptick in pro-vaccine messaging from prominent Republicans is a welcome change of pace that only highlights its unacceptable absence until now.




					www.fastcompany.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Many people here and elsewhere in the Southeast are turning down Covid-19 vaccines because they are angry that President Donald Trump lost the election and sick of Democrats in Washington thinking they know what’s best. State and local public health officials have struggled to combat that deep-rooted obstinance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


We’ll the other data point we know is Asian American two vaccine uptake is 2/3. African American uptake is 1/3.  So it’s not just the republitards that are causing problems in the south. Criticism of the republitards for not vaccinating is all fine and good…but I don’t hear much criticism when it comes to your own constituent groups.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 25, 2021)

Watch Man Confront Tucker Carlson in Montana: “You Are the Worst Human Being”
					

Dan Bailey gave the Fox News host a piece of his mind.




					slate.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Watch Man Confront Tucker Carlson in Montana: “You Are the Worst Human Being”
> 
> 
> Dan Bailey gave the Fox News host a piece of his mind.
> ...





espola said:


> Based on personal experience, I knew the world had more than it needed of fucking idiots.  However, in a time of crisis, I didn't think they would voluntarily identify themselves.


Yes, we know.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 26, 2021)

Politically in the us this is all going to come to a head in 3–4 weeks just as kids are going back to school. I can’t imagine the Biden admin publicly acknowledges zero covid Is not possible: would tick off his base and force him to acknowledge the critics were right over a year ago.  But if we do a new round of lockdowns on top of the supply problems and inflationary pressures already there it’s just going to sink his presidency (same as it did ultimately trumps).

Interestingly the Uk is still in decline. The peak coincided with their freedom day.  How much of an upturn in cases (if any) happens in the next few days will tell us what impact (if any) nonstringent npis really have.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Politically in the us this is all going to come to a head in 3–4 weeks just as kids are going back to school. I can’t imagine the Biden admin publicly acknowledges zero covid Is not possible: would tick off his base and force him to acknowledge the critics were right over a year ago.  But if we do a new round of lockdowns on top of the supply problems and inflationary pressures already there it’s just going to sink his presidency (same as it did ultimately trumps).
> 
> Interestingly the Uk is still in decline. The peak coincided with their freedom day.  How much of an upturn in cases (if any) happens in the next few days will tell us what impact (if any) nonstringent npis really have.


What historical npi events do we have to look back at and compare to today?  Oh that's right!  We don't.  What historical PCR testing event do we have to look back at and compare to today?  Oh! We don't.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)




----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 26, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


>


@Ellejustus No more Crush?


----------



## what-happened (Jul 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I own a home in Arizona, more than half the people wear masks and are smart about things . . . just saying.


I wonder where your home is?  not even close to half.  Plenty of smart people though, but mask wearing is def below 50%, way below.


----------



## dad4 (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Politically in the us this is all going to come to a head in 3–4 weeks just as kids are going back to school. I can’t imagine the Biden admin publicly acknowledges zero covid Is not possible: would tick off his base and force him to acknowledge the critics were right over a year ago.  But if we do a new round of lockdowns on top of the supply problems and inflationary pressures already there it’s just going to sink his presidency (same as it did ultimately trumps).
> 
> Interestingly the Uk is still in decline. The peak coincided with their freedom day.  How much of an upturn in cases (if any) happens in the next few days will tell us what impact (if any) nonstringent npis really have.


Perhaps other people disagree with you about whether zero covid is possible?

After all, you begin by assuming that 1/3 to 2/3 of us refuse to wear masks, get vaccinated, or move social events outside.  Under those assumptions, covid spreads widely.  But that is not the only possible choice we have for our behavior. 

A high vax rate and moderate mask/distance/outside norms are enough to drive hospitalizations near zero.  Vermont is averaging one hospitalized covid patient right now.  SF is around 25.  Both have fewer than one covid death per day.

Now, if you want to open schools, burn your masks, and ban vaccine requirements, then you’re in Louisiana/Arkansas/Missouri territory, with around 1000 hospitalizations and 10 deaths per day.  

But that is our choice.  We don’t have to pick the stupid option.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Many people here and elsewhere in the Southeast are turning down Covid-19 vaccines because they are angry that President Donald Trump lost the election and sick of Democrats in Washington thinking they know what’s best. State and local public health officials have struggled to combat that deep-rooted obstinance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Did you read this in your manual?  I thought black and brown people were driving vaccination rates down?  How lockstep of you to continue to politicize vaccination.  You and yours continue to summon the orange boogey man.  Tiresome schtick to say the least.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> @Ellejustus No more Crush?


Crush is always alive and well and is my pee to my pod.  However, EJ was feeling neglected and pushed to the side.  It will be EJ that finishes this race that he started.  Crush played his roll and I let him know how proud I am of him.  Love you man


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I wonder where your home is?  not even close to half.  Plenty of smart people though, but mask wearing is def below 50%, way below.


Bro, it's one of his many nursing homes he owns.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Perhaps other people disagree with you about whether zero covid is possible?
> 
> After all, you begin by assuming that 1/3 to 2/3 of us refuse to wear masks, get vaccinated, or move social events outside.  Under those assumptions, covid spreads widely.  But that is not the only possible choice we have for our behavior.
> 
> ...


It's unfortunate that vaccination has been so politicized.

Alabama: Black - 25% vaccinated, Hispanic - 5%
Louisiana: Black - 30%, Hispanic - 7%
Arkansas:  Black - 13%, Hispanic - 7%
Missouri:  Black - 9%, Hispanic -  5%

Complete failure by our vaunted government in conducting outreach within these communities.  Instead we summon orange man and partisan politics. 

I see it everyday in disenfranchised communities.  It's shame (or maybe not) that our police officers, firemen, and EMS folks are driving the train at the community level to educate those with the least information.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

I was thinking that maybe some people see these videos and pics of people who have become a magnetic field and that causes some ((not all)) to second guess if they should go for it.  I personally think the rats should have gone first but what do I know.  We will all get through this together.  I love you all my fellow Americans


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Perhaps other people disagree with you about whether zero covid is possible?
> 
> After all, you begin by assuming that 1/3 to 2/3 of us refuse to wear masks, get vaccinated, or move social events outside.  Under those assumptions, covid spreads widely.  But that is not the only possible choice we have for our behavior.
> 
> ...


Wow, I always thought you were one of the more level headed pro lockdowners. You actually believe zero COVID is possible in the foreseeable future???  You also were relatively thinking that this shouldn't be put on the children but now in the parade of horribles you list "open schools".  You would really deprive children of another year of education and another year of their childhood?  And when is the offramp for you: we were waiting for 14 days to slow the spread, then a month, then until the hospitals were ready, then until treatments were available, then until the elderly vaxxed, then until everyone offered a vax....what are we waiting for now?

I gotta say you were one of the more level headed blue pillers here.  If you are representative of where the level headed ones are at, we are in for big problems here in around 6 weeks.


----------



## watfly (Jul 26, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I see it everyday in disenfranchised communities.  It's shame (or maybe not) that our police officers, firemen, and EMS folks are driving the train at the community level to educate those with the least information.


In low income communities, regardless of race, police, firemen and EMS folks are the primary care provider.  Hence, those citizens are not as inclined to seek care from traditional healthcare sources and, as a result, unlikely to go to a clinic to get a vaccination.  We need a different approach to get these individuals vaccinated.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow, I always thought you were one of the more level headed pro lockdowners. You actually believe zero COVID is possible in the foreseeable future???  You also were relatively thinking that this shouldn't be put on the children but now in the parade of horribles you list "open schools".  You would really deprive children of another year of education and another year of their childhood?  And when is the offramp for you: we were waiting for 14 days to slow the spread, then a month, then until the hospitals were ready, then until treatments were available, then until the elderly vaxxed, then until everyone offered a vax....what are we waiting for now?
> 
> I gotta say you were one of the more level headed blue pillers here.  If you are representative of where the level headed ones are at, we are in for big problems here in around 6 weeks.


The once level headed Dad got his head stuck in a vice.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow, I always thought you were one of the more level headed pro lockdowners. You actually believe zero COVID is possible in the foreseeable future???  You also were relatively thinking that this shouldn't be put on the children but now in the parade of horribles you list "open schools".  You would really deprive children of another year of education and another year of their childhood?  And when is the offramp for you: we were waiting for 14 days to slow the spread, then a month, then until the hospitals were ready, then until treatments were available, then until the elderly vaxxed, then until everyone offered a vax....what are we waiting for now?
> 
> I gotta say you were one of the more level headed blue pillers here.  If you are representative of where the level headed ones are at, we are in for big problems here in around 6 weeks.


p.s. I told you masks for never be enough for you: you are back to masks + moving stuff outdoors, vaccine mandates and closing schools.  The chatter over the weekend among the prolockdowners is that even they don't think the cloth masks are doing much (based on what's happening in Asia) against the delta...chatter is upgrading to surgical and N95s but N95s are still hard to get.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The "longer term damage" is being 89.  No doubt his immune system has rec'd a lot of viral updates over that period too.  A recommended approach for immunity is not the point I am making.  The Fear Industry has made immunity a binary decision with vaccines on one side and death on the other.  Any talk of therapies appear muted by the CDC and the Media.  Six of the 80+ y.o. folks that I know survived corona pre-vax.  All are doing well for being 80+.  None of them were in a LTCF.  If you have a choice, keep your parents out of those kill zones people.


Compared to the prime of life, as we age the stem cell populations in our body that get expanded to produce an antibody response inevitably decline.  Mounting an active, acquired immune response (ie the ability to remember what you've been exposed to in the past and then producing the antibody response if re-challenged) becomes increasingly difficulty.  Clean smart living can slow the decline, but within limits.  

My take is the fear industry is largely self-manufactured, and is then exploitable, rather than the other way around.  Look at the last two weeks of this thread.  We are are on the downside of a global pandemic.  In some ways we've been so, so lucky, but we did sorta-kinda manage to buy time for vaccines and those appear largely successful so far.  First time in history.  And yet its all about economic ruin, the tyranny of masks, why not bring in climate change too, government herding the sheeple, all that stuff.  Don't really get it, but then I never liked "Goosebumps" either.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> But that is our choice.  We don’t have to pick the stupid option.


You actually don't have an option.  Me?  I got options.  Good diet, exercise, healthy weight, deep sea fishing, golfing without a cart, and clown identity to name a few.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> You actually don't have an option.  Me?  I got options.  Good diet, exercise, healthy weight, deep sea fishing, golfing without a cart, and clown identity to name a few.


Great job Bruddah.   I can;t do heavy lifting because of my bad back.  However, I do light rock lifting, swimming and walking on da beach early every morning.  I have no money to golf so I just swim for exercise.  If you want to sponsor me a round with Hound someday I will take you guys on.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> So we could have already been exposed but not exhibiting because our adaptive immune systems have rec'd the necessary updates?


If I follow, yeah.  Anyone that got infected, even if they were basically healthy and exhibited little or no symptoms, will almost certainly have mounted an active immune response.  If re-exposed to the virus that acquired immune response can be induced again.  The "memory" gradually fades over time, but the time course is relatively slow compared to the pace of the pandemic.  There is some evidence that the antibodies induced by the vaccine are more neutralizing than antibodies arising from natural infection, which I think is why health experts are like "why not both".


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> There is some evidence that the antibodies induced by the vaccine are more neutralizing than antibodies arising from natural infection, which I think is why health experts are like "why not both".


There's also been some evidence to the contrary, that natural immunity is more robust.  I posted a study several weeks back.  Also Dr. John Campbell (who is not a member of the red pill squad) has been running a series of talks over the last several weeks including interview with experts....it may be the immunity (at least relative to the Delta) from vaccines fades more rapidly over time (which is why he thinks we the US might have been better off spreading the injections like they did in the UK).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Great job Bruddah.   I can;t do heavy lifting because of my bad back.  However, I do light rock lifting, swimming and walking on da beach early every morning.  I have no money to golf so I just swim for exercise.  If you want to sponsor me a round with Hound someday I will take you guys on.


Are either of you vets?


----------



## dad4 (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow, I always thought you were one of the more level headed pro lockdowners. You actually believe zero COVID is possible in the foreseeable future???  You also were relatively thinking that this shouldn't be put on the children but now in the parade of horribles you list "open schools".  You would really deprive children of another year of education and another year of their childhood?  And when is the offramp for you: we were waiting for 14 days to slow the spread, then a month, then until the hospitals were ready, then until treatments were available, then until the elderly vaxxed, then until everyone offered a vax....what are we waiting for now?
> 
> I gotta say you were one of the more level headed blue pillers here.  If you are representative of where the level headed ones are at, we are in for big problems here in around 6 weeks.


Can we get to “zero”?   It depends on which question you are asking and what assumptions you make.

Could we get to zero deaths per day?  Absolutely.  It would take 12 months and near universal vaccinations.

Can we get to zero cases while we all take our unvaccinated, unmasked selves out for dinner?  Heck no.  

Now, which question were you asking?  Zero deaths by behaving well, or zero cases by behaving foolishly?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Are either of you vets?


No.  I love you all though.  I tried to be a Marine in 1985 but failed one part of the ASVAB text. My recruiter told me to go to college and save myself.  I dont remember the part I bombed.  I was trying to figure out life sense I had no place to live after high school.  My foster mom did her part and moved to Indio and I was left on my own to figure things out on this planet.  I turned to Christ for help and joined a crazy cult soon after.  I'm glad I did because I met my wife and got my crap together.  I will say after I figured out it it was more about the 10%-15% and control, we left.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> You actually don't have an option.


In some ways, I agree with you.  As with so many things, it comes to individual vs collective action in a social context.  We all do both-racing down the line to get that great parking space at surf cup and then waving our parking permit out the window to give away on the way out.  Free stuff.  This virus is going to get us to the real world approximate of herd immunity one way or another.  The passive public health measures (masks, shut downs, etc) over the past year are examples of attempted collective action.  The people to whom the virus poses no real (at least short term) health threat can be viewed paying a penalty so that the kindly shepherd can herd as many sheeple across the immunity line as possible, largely with the idea that the vaccines were coming at warp speed.  

The other approach to herd immunity, of course, comes when the kindly shepherd gets impatient, which is coming soon.  I personally would like to stay with the collective action approach until mid fall when the vaccine will probably be available for the elementary age kids.  But then it is time-in this country-to transition to a pure individual action mode to achieving herd immunity, which is basically cull the herd.  At that point what Dad4 says is true-all of use will have paid a penalty to provide options.  For most of the vaccine hesitant or resistant it will not matter.  For the susceptible it will.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> There's also been some evidence to the contrary, that natural immunity is more robust.  I posted a study several weeks back.  Also Dr. John Campbell (who is not a member of the red pill squad) has been running a series of talks over the last several weeks including interview with experts....it may be the immunity (at least relative to the Delta) from vaccines fades more rapidly over time (which is why he thinks we the US might have been better off spreading the injections like they did in the UK).


The issue is induced antibody production versus neutralizing antibodies.  The manner in which the S protein is exposed to antigen presenting cells with the vaccine allows more of the S protein surface to be presented to the immune system.  And its not one vs the other.  People in the prime of life who have a very robust immune system will have a more multi-faceted antibody response, and hence the probability of strong neutralizing antibodies, than older folks who get the vaccine.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> If I follow, yeah.  Anyone that got infected, even if they were basically healthy and exhibited little or no symptoms, will almost certainly have mounted an active immune response.  If re-exposed to the virus that acquired immune response can be induced again.  The "memory" gradually fades over time, but the time course is relatively slow compared to the pace of the pandemic.  There is some evidence that the antibodies induced by the vaccine are more neutralizing than antibodies arising from natural infection, which I think is why health experts are like "why not both".


 Itʻs always been “why not both”.  Except “why not both” is now riding on the coat tails of a global economic shut down because of a well known virus.  Leveraging a .0002 IFR to shut down the global economy is pure fear mongering.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Can we get to “zero”?   It depends on which question you are asking and what assumptions you make.
> 
> Could we get to zero deaths per day?  Absolutely.  It would take 12 months and near universal vaccinations.
> 
> ...


Way to duck the schools question.  I guess you are in favor of some form of school restriction but don't want to say it.

Zero COVID deaths is impossible as long as there is not zero COVID and zero COVID isn't going to happen any time soon.  The issue will always be there are certain immunocompromised people who will succumb to COVID the same way as they do to flu.  We don't have zero flu.  We don't have zero RSV which takes a large number of elderly each year.  We can get to near zero deaths where long periods go by when no one dies of COVID (as with RSV) but zero COVID (at least for years to come) is a fantasy.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 26, 2021)

watfly said:


> In low income communities, regardless of race, police, firemen and EMS folks are the primary care provider.  Hence, those citizens are not as inclined to seek care from traditional healthcare sources and, as a result, unlikely to go to a clinic to get a vaccination.  We need a different approach to get these individuals vaccinated.


We'd rather make it about partisan politics and project agendas that don't provide positive outcomes for these communities.. The ones who benefit are those in some sort of office or position of power - provides them job security. 

I know I'm beating a dead horse.  To many, the black and brown vaccine issue is the ugly truth.  Making it political is easier and much less dirty.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> The issue is induced antibody production versus neutralizing antibodies.  The manner in which the S protein is exposed to antigen presenting cells with the vaccine allows more of the S protein surface to be presented to the immune system.  And its not one vs the other.  People in the prime of life who have a very robust immune system will have a more multi-faceted antibody response, and hence the probability of strong neutralizing antibodies, than older folks who get the vaccine.


BS!!!!


----------



## espola (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Politically in the us this is all going to come to a head in 3–4 weeks just as kids are going back to school. I can’t imagine the Biden admin publicly acknowledges zero covid Is not possible: would tick off his base and force him to acknowledge the critics were right over a year ago.  But if we do a new round of lockdowns on top of the supply problems and inflationary pressures already there it’s just going to sink his presidency (same as it did ultimately trumps).
> 
> Interestingly the Uk is still in decline. The peak coincided with their freedom day.  How much of an upturn in cases (if any) happens in the next few days will tell us what impact (if any) nonstringent npis really have.


In the past, I have recommended that you edit down some of your posts to about half as many words.  This one is totally the opposite.  The first paragraph appears to be a string of conclusions without any background exposition at all.  Please try harder (or less hard, maybe).


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

espola said:


> In the past, I have recommended that you edit down some of your posts to about half as many words.  This one is totally the opposite.  The first paragraph appears to be a string of conclusions without any background exposition at all.  Please try harder (or less hard, maybe).


Troll!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 26, 2021)

espola said:


> In the past, I have recommended that you edit down some of your posts to about half as many words.  This one is totally the opposite.  The first paragraph appears to be a string of conclusions without any background exposition at all.  Please try harder (or less hard, maybe).


playing teacher again...your least effective technique.....to be effective as a teacher you have to carry at least a modicum of respect


----------



## espola (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> playing teacher again...your least effective technique.....to be effective as a teacher you have to carry at least a modicum of respect


I thought you might take the opportunity to clarify your content.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 26, 2021)

espola said:


> I thought you might take the opportunity to clarify your content.


For you?  No thanks.


----------



## espola (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> For you?  No thanks.


I'm not the only reader.


----------



## espola (Jul 26, 2021)

Speaking of idiots  voluntarily disclosing themselves --





__





						Loading…
					





					www.kentucky.com


----------



## what-happened (Jul 26, 2021)

espola said:


> Speaking of idiots  voluntarily disclosing themselves --
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Plenty of them on both sides, but keep focusing on the idiots - that will get things done.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> BS!!!!


Sure.  Have a great day.


----------



## espola (Jul 26, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Plenty of them on both sides, but keep focusing on the idiots - that will get things done.


So you have some good examples on the "other side" to contemplate?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Sure.  Have a great day.


ok evil goalie


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Itʻs always been “why not both”.  Except “why not both” is now riding on the coat tails of a global economic shut down because of a well known virus.  Leveraging a .0002 IFR to shut down the global economy is pure fear mongering.


IFR varies for different segments of the population.  Assuming R0 of 2 (which is low for delta) for 18-49 yr with this virus its IFR 150/1000000 = 0.0002.  For 65+ the IFR is 0.026, 130X higher (both numbers from CDC).  That higher IFR is going to include seniors who have taken care of themselves and those that have not.  Like you say, simply being alive for a long time imposes long term damage and increased susceptibility. So the collective approach assumes the 0.0002 crowd will go along with public health policies to protect the 0.026 crowd.  I don't think there's a hard number for what the IFR is for vaxxed 65+, but it will almost certainly be greatly reduced.  So was that worth it?  A global pandemic was always going to be scary, but you are also right in that we could have from the get go gone to herd immunity without any guardrails.  But that's a value issue and with all such things everybody will see it through one lens or another.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> ok evil goalie


Best soccer movie ever.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Best soccer movie ever.


Best goalie for sure and hands down got the best hands.  I laughed so hard and I needed a good laugh after this past weekend   I like you a lot Evil Goalie 21 and thanks for sharing...


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 26, 2021)

Newsom says state employees and health care workers must vaccinate or test weekly. 

Newsom is going to be placed under an enormous pressure to do something further by his health advisors. Even though he is still in a comfortable (48/43) lead in the recall his enthusiasm rating is down and 54% of voters want a new governor 2022.  Rock and a hard place for him.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 26, 2021)

whatithink said:


> The poor (everywhere) will be the worse impacted. BTW, in a blue sky world, there is no need for any person on this planet to be without food or shelter or access to reasonable health care or education.


Actually there are a variety of climate scientists that talk about this...but in a different way. Bjorn Lomberg (spelling) is one. 

He makes a few points. 

IPCC reports that even under the best of circumstances we reduce the temp by 2100 by a rather small amount vs not doing anything. 

He and others make the point that money would be better spent on mitigation efforts and saving the lives of 100s of millions by spending money on clean water, electricity, etc. 

Further points include by building out poorer countries now, eventually they become cleaner. Initially they utilize the cheaper options for energy, etc because that is what they can afford. As things improve, people around the world have shown to have a history of wanting to go cleaner.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Electric cars help but the batteries are also a drag on the environment so it’s not all a help. Solar power? You have t heard the California commercials asking us to conserve from 4-7 because of the problems with solar production…if you really felt this way you’d go nuclear.


If climate change due to emissions were the threat it is stated to be, then the very same people should be advocating nuclear power now. It is the cleanest most efficient form of energy we have. Do that up until another / better way of producing sustainable energy is found. 

By the way most people driving electric vehicles get their power from power plants utilizing fossil fuels. So if we are going to ramp up the use of electric vehicles, we need to ramp up construction of fossil fuel powered power plants. The joke about electric vehicles is that most have a LONG tailpipe. 

Then as grace points out, the massive mining efforts to get the materials needed to produce batteries, and the energy needed to mine and produce said batteries.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Re climate change you are perpetuating the myth that it’s easy.


I always tell people to look around their home/office, etc. Pretty much everything they own or use, uses petroleum byproducts in their manufacturing and/or in the transportation to market. Everything. 

We are not moving away from that reality in any time in the near to mid term future at a min.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 26, 2021)

what-happened said:


> I wonder where your home is?  not even close to half.  Plenty of smart people though, but mask wearing is def below 50%, way below.


It isn't even close to 50% anymore. Walk into any store, etc. The person wearing the mask is now the oddity...and is probably vaccinated as well.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It isn't even close to 50% anymore. Walk into any store, etc. The person wearing the mask is now the oddity...and is probably vaccinated as well.


and the one's whining and crying over the fact they jumped first in line.  I have to deal with the same folks.  They will always hate me because I dont agree with them about anything with regards to science.  It's come down to my way or the highway.  These asshats are ruining our lives because.......


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 26, 2021)

When I saw my kids being taught math like this, I knew it was time to get them out of there.

This is exactly how they were/are teaching math.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1418990875821105154


----------



## what-happened (Jul 26, 2021)

espola said:


> So you have some good examples on the "other side" to contemplate?


You seem to have time - look it up.


----------



## espola (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Newsom says state employees and health care workers must vaccinate or test weekly.
> 
> Newsom is going to be placed under an enormous pressure to do something further by his health advisors. Even though he is still in a comfortable (48/43) lead in the recall his enthusiasm rating is down and 54% of voters want a new governor 2022.  Rock and a hard place for him.


Which polls?


----------



## espola (Jul 26, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You seem to have time - look it up.


So you have nothing?


----------



## espola (Jul 26, 2021)

Another idiot volunteers (this time an Arizona legislator) --


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1419773739693137927


----------



## what-happened (Jul 26, 2021)

espola said:


> So you have nothing?


 Hard to change the minds of the committed.


----------



## espola (Jul 26, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Hard to change the minds of the committed.


I see that as a meaningless non-sequitur, especially following from your "Plenty of them on both sides" comment.  Who did you have in mind there?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Compared to the prime of life, as we age the stem cell populations in our body that get expanded to produce an antibody response inevitably decline.  Mounting an active, acquired immune response (ie the ability to remember what you've been exposed to in the past and then producing the antibody response if re-challenged) becomes increasingly difficulty.  Clean smart living can slow the decline, but within limits.
> 
> My take is the fear industry is largely self-manufactured, and is then exploitable, rather than the other way around.  Look at the last two weeks of this thread.  We are are on the downside of a global pandemic.  In some ways we've been so, so lucky, but we did sorta-kinda manage to buy time for vaccines and those appear largely successful so far.  First time in history.  And yet its all about economic ruin, the tyranny of masks, why not bring in climate change too, government herding the sheeple, all that stuff.  Don't really get it, but then I never liked "Goosebumps" either.


Oh don't you worry.  The fear merchants will be dragging in that dead cat climate soon enough.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Can we get to “zero”?   It depends on which question you are asking and what assumptions you make.
> 
> Could we get to zero deaths per day?  Absolutely.  It would take 12 months and near universal vaccinations.
> 
> ...


Too bad you clowns are trying to build your case based on the PCR test.   Getting to zero? Not gonna happen with the PCR test.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

espola said:


> Another idiot volunteers (this time an Arizona legislator) --
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1419773739693137927


Notice all these legislators in AZ and PA are Veterans bro?  Think about that smart ass....lol!!!


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Too bad you clowns are trying to build your case based on the PCR test.   Getting to zero? Not gonna happen with the PCR test.


Espola still has me on Ignore Bruddah.  He got all upset with me a couple years ago because I told him the truth and he doesnt like it when the truth hurts.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Espola still has me on Ignore Bruddah.  He got all upset with me a couple years ago because I told him the truth and he doesnt like it when the truth hurts.


The ignore button is a vaccine for thin skinned folks.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> IFR varies for different segments of the population.  Assuming R0 of 2 (which is low for delta) for 18-49 yr with this virus its IFR 150/1000000 = 0.0002.  For 65+ the IFR is 0.026, 130X higher (both numbers from CDC).  That higher IFR is going to include seniors who have taken care of themselves and those that have not.  Like you say, simply being alive for a long time imposes long term damage and increased susceptibility. So the collective approach assumes the 0.0002 crowd will go along with public health policies to protect the 0.026 crowd.  I don't think there's a hard number for what the IFR is for vaxxed 65+, but it will almost certainly be greatly reduced.  So was that worth it?


  We've been here before.  No I don't think there is a hard IFR number for vaxxed 65+ but we've not changed infection rates with vaccines for at least the last three decades.  We've decreased time of symptoms by maybe 4 to 6 hrs.  So are those facts worth shutting down the global economy and denying folks access to therapies that could've saved their lives?




EvilGoalie 21 said:


> A global pandemic was always going to be scary, but you are also right in that we could have from the get go gone to herd immunity without any guardrails.  But that's a value issue and with all such things everybody will see it through one lens or another.


A global pandemic was not always going to be scary if you consider the definition of a pandemic.  We've had 13K+ pandemics since 1978.  When a virus makes it to two continents it is considered a pandemic.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Newsom says state employees and health care workers must vaccinate or test weekly.
> 
> Newsom is going to be placed under an enormous pressure to do something further by his health advisors. Even though he is still in a comfortable (48/43) lead in the recall his enthusiasm rating is down and 54% of voters want a new governor 2022.  Rock and a hard place for him.


Newsome is a coward.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Espola still has me on Ignore Bruddah.  He got all upset with me a couple years ago because I told him the truth and he doesnt like it when the truth hurts.


Yeah it's kind of fun to watch.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> We've been here before.  No I don't think there is a hard IFR number for vaxxed 65+ but we've not changed infection rates with vaccines for at least the last three decades.  We've decreased time of symptoms by maybe 4 to 6 hrs.  So are those facts worth shutting down the global economy and denying folks access to therapies that could've saved their lives?
> 
> 
> A global pandemic was not always going to be scary if you consider the definition of a pandemic.  We've had 13K+ pandemics since 1978.  When a virus makes it to two continents it is considered a pandemic.


My wife just told me the unwaxed are now being compared to drunk drivers.  I'll just stay home from now on until the dust settles.  I really dont know what to do Bruddah.  This is NOT FDA approved and so experimental that I just can;t do it.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> PCR test.   Getting to zero?


If you don't like the PCR test alternatives could be devised.  I'm thinking a line of immuno-compromised, human ACE2-adapted gerbils.  French kiss 10 and see how many die.  Of course you'll also need to kiss 10 non-adapted controls to get a meaningful ratio. If you come at them coughing and hacking 9 times out of 10 they'll bite down hard cause their gerbil spidy sense tells them what's coming. 

There's a variant of PCR called QPCR that is not just a + or - assay.  For some of the potential test populations that Dad4 mentioned eariler QPCR would allow a quantitative view of viral load with or without the vaccine in either sympotmatic or non-sympomatic people. So you would have some basis for distinguishing "cases" from "infections".  Which is the issue.  

And its important to come to the sense that by any objective criterion the virus has already won.  It has spread itself around the globe.  It will now burn itself down into non-zero equilibria in our populations, with the burn rate determined by what we do.  That's evolutionary success for the virus. Short of a jump to another host, the numbers will be much lower.  But it isn't going away.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> If you don't like the PCR test alternatives could be devised.  I'm thinking a line of immuno-compromised, human ACE2-adapted gerbils.  French kiss 10 and see how many die.  Of course you'll also need to kiss 10 non-adapted controls to get a meaningful ratio. If you come at them coughing and hacking 9 times out of 10 they'll bite down hard cause their gerbil spidy sense tells them what's coming.
> 
> There's a variant of PCR called QPCR that is not just a + or - assay.  For some of the potential test populations that Dad4 mentioned eariler QPCR would allow a quantitative view of viral load with or without the vaccine in either sympotmatic or non-sympomatic people. So you would have some basis for distinguishing "cases" from "infections".  Which is the issue.
> 
> And its important to come to the sense that by any objective criterion the virus has already won.  It has spread itself around the globe.  It will now burn itself down into non-zero equilibria in our populations, with the burn rate determined by what we do.  That's evolutionary success for the virus. Short of a jump to another host, the numbers will be much lower.  But it isn't going away.


Way too late to ask for alternatives bro.  Think about what your saying here, my gosh.  They jacked up test results to create fear on all of us around the world.  The dude that invented the test warned all the Docs not to use it to pad their numbers.  Dude is dead now too so this is scary shit.  Like I said so many times, I'm past 9 lives so I dont care.  I'm now offically accused of being a drunk driver.  Gee, I feel so special now.  My best pal tells me I remind him of a cat because I keep landing on my feet when I fall.  I used to get so many mean PMs on this site from lawyer dudes and asshole dads in soccer that wanted me to STFU.  Anyway, be very careful what type of liguid your willing to shoot up with.  My other pal is from Stanford and knows his stuff way more than anyone on here and I'll listen to him and him alone.  Talk about a smart cat and is also a real Doctor that gives real advice.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> If you don't like the PCR test alternatives could be devised.  I'm thinking a line of immuno-compromised, human ACE2-adapted gerbils.  French kiss 10 and see how many die.  Of course you'll also need to kiss 10 non-adapted controls to get a meaningful ratio. If you come at them coughing and hacking 9 times out of 10 they'll bite down hard cause their gerbil spidy sense tells them what's coming.
> 
> There's a variant of PCR called QPCR that is not just a + or - assay.  For some of the potential test populations that Dad4 mentioned eariler QPCR would allow a quantitative view of viral load with or without the vaccine in either sympotmatic or non-sympomatic people. So you would have some basis for distinguishing "cases" from "infections".  Which is the issue.
> 
> And its important to come to the sense that by any objective criterion the virus has already won.  It has spread itself around the globe.  It will now burn itself down into non-zero equilibria in our populations, with the burn rate determined by what we do.  That's evolutionary success for the virus. Short of a jump to another host, the numbers will be much lower.  But it isn't going away.


Maybe we could get a test that gives us a time stamp for when the corona genetic sequences showed up in those tested.  You know, since corona and other respiratory virus have been around for nearly 800 years?  That we know of.  We seem to have evolved with them.  Our existence through viral updates?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> My wife just told me the unwaxed are now being compared to drunk drivers.


That's how you know the comparer's have been over-vaxxed.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> That's how you know the comparer's have been over-vaxxed.


I talked to one of my besties the other day and he feels me in on his side with what he truly believes.  Let me say, he's so left he has no right arm Bruddah.  He's true to his beliefs and that's why I like him.  He thinks I'm selfish now for not giving in to peer pressure.  I told him i did all that peer pressure stuff in grade school.  I made a promise to myself I would never let someone peer pressure me into taking experimental drugs ever again and I held true to myself.  That is fact bro, I didnt think it would be my best pal who never ever did drugs before to be the one being a drug pusher on me.  He bugs me everyday.  I think he's jealous because I lost 45 pounds and he is gaining more and more weight and drinking like crazy.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

Oh great, Rahm ((EOTL, Espola and Husker Poo)) wants to establish a Reward/Punishment for the last of the hold outs.  WTF trust this guy?  Honestly, read these quotes.  

*While appearing on on ABC’s “This Week,” former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel said that there needs to be a “reward-punishment system” to force people to get vaccinated.*

Emanuel said that people should not be able to participate in activities within society unless they take the rushed out jabs.

“There’s a lot of things we can do without calling it a mandate. Just make it almost impossible for people to live their lives without being protected and protect us,” panelist Margaret Hoover said.

“I agree. I’m the son of a pediatrician…The fact is no child can show up at school without showing their immunizations, smallpox and measles. You have to make this familiar to people. Second is, I would close the space. If you want to participate in activities, you have to show you are vaccinated. So it becomes a reward-punishment system. You make your own calculation. The fact is there’s data this week that 30% of health care workers are not vaccinated,” Emanuel responded. “They have got to lead by example.”


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Maybe we could get a test that gives us a time stamp for when the corona genetic sequences showed up in those tested.  You know, since corona and other respiratory virus have been around for nearly 800 years?  That we know of.  We seem to have evolved with them.  Our existence through viral updates?


Our co-evolution with viruses has been going on way way way longer than 800 yrs and will continue.  They can evolve a lot faster than we can.  New variants emerge.  Fortunately, a product of that co-evolution is an adaptive immune system whose function is to respond to new infectious agents.  It works great in healthy people but does require exposure so the adaptive immune system can read, respond and remember the new agent.  But its hallmark is specificity; that exposure is unlikely to be nearly as effective as inducing adaptive immunity against related coronviruses.  Same reason there is a new flu shot each year.

If you are suggesting that there is somehow a CoV-2 related coronavirus that pre-exists the pandemic, persistantly infects humans, as is being revealed as a CoV-2 false positive in the PCR assay there are a number of negative controls to rule that out.  In fact, the precision of PCR, which comes in the primer design, is one of its strengths.  Its sensitivity, however, can be both a strength and weakness.  

If by time stamp in the infected you mean how rapidly after infection viral genomes can be detected by PCR or otherwise that has been pretty well worked out, most cleanly in cultured cells but also in real infections.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Way too late to ask for alternatives bro.  Think about what your saying here, my gosh.  They jacked up test results to create fear on all of us around the world.  The dude that invented the test warned all the Docs not to use it to pad their numbers.  Dude is dead now too so this is scary shit.  Like I said so many times, I'm past 9 lives so I dont care.  I'm now offically accused of being a drunk driver.  Gee, I feel so special now.  My best pal tells me I remind him of a cat because I keep landing on my feet when I fall.  I used to get so many mean PMs on this site from lawyer dudes and asshole dads in soccer that wanted me to STFU.  Anyway, be very careful what type of liguid your willing to shoot up with.  My other pal is from Stanford and knows his stuff way more than anyone on here and I'll listen to him and him alone.  Talk about a smart cat and is also a real Doctor that gives real advice.


Simple.  If you don't want the pop don't get it.  Either way, fear is a choice.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Simple.  If you don't want the pop don't get it.  Either way, fear is a choice.


I have zero fear, I swear.  I do have a brain, a mind and a gut and all three say that Dr F, Bill, The other Bill, Jeffrey, the other Jeff, Jack, Mark, Klaus and Chuck are not the type of guys I listen to.  Are you afraid of getting the Delta after you got the pop from someone like Bruddah or EJ?  I will stay home so you can carry on with life.  It's the least I can do for all you scared little men.  What are you scared of, seriously?


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

I'm not sure who all those people are.  I got the pop from a young intern I knew from awhile back.  Nice kid.  My take on the gestalt of the data, as I posted earlier, is that its by and large looking pretty good.  I think there is a legit worry that the bigger burst size of variants like delta may have unanticipated effects on small kids, thus changing the susceptibility profile.  But there's no clear sign of that so far.  So I'm feeling pretty good.  If you are choosing shelter in place I take it you must be in some susceptibility group.  I wish you all the best.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> I'm not sure who all those people are.  I got the pop from a young intern I knew from awhile back.  Nice kid.  My take on the gestalt of the data, as I posted earlier, is that its by and large looking pretty good.  I think there is a legit worry that the bigger burst size of variants like delta may have unanticipated effects on small kids, thus changing the susceptibility profile.  But there's no clear sign of that so far.  So I'm feeling pretty good.  If you are choosing shelter in place I take it you must be in some susceptibility group.  *I wish you all the best.*


Thanks bro.  I can only speak about myself.  It's been hard on me personally ever since I was conceived by my birth mother 55 years ago.  It seems like the same assholes are still being greedy and selfish and they never wanted me born in the first place.  It's a very long story that most on here know about.  I'll fill you in on the shorter side.  You see, I was in the womb and my birth mom had some evil forces trying to get her to sell me to some serious sick fuckers and I mean sick dude.  The kind of folks who sacrifice kids for their religion.  Anyway, a bad man had a change of heart and called my adopted mom to see if she could buy another kid and save my life in 1966.  She already bought 7 so she said why not #8.  Talk about eight is enough.  My birth mother however decided to abort me because of all the stress she was feeling to sell me.  My adopted mother talked her out of it and I'm here today to talk with you.  Isn;t that cool?  After I was born, I was soon diagnosed with hearing loss because my ears were not right on the inside.  My adopted parents had some extra dough and got me surgery so I could hear.  I'm so appreciative of that kind gesture.  At three years old, I couldnt talk and came down with severe stuttering and basically left to figure it out on my own all through grade school. Teachers forced me to read out loud because they wanted the other kids to laugh at me because I also had ADD and caused so much trouble for the typical control freak type teacher.  I tried to tell them it made me angry to put me through that fear as a child but they told me to get over it and over come my weaknesses.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 26, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Thanks bro.  I can only speak about myself.


My wife and I adopted our second kid.  We had to take these courses which were kind of hit and miss.  But one thing I remember was one night these young teens who had come through the foster care system told their stories.  Maybe not quite as harrowing as yours but some bad shit for sure, in utero drug exposure, physical, sexual, mental abuse.  Sitting before us as mature, powerful, articulate kids.  Then we heard from foster parents about the heroics and obstacles necessary to overcome to get there.  These were the success stories, but came away with an appreciation of how strong people can be and how much love and time it can take to heal.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> My wife and I adopted our second kid.  We had to take these courses which were kind of hit and miss.  But one thing I remember was one night these young teens who had come through the foster care system told their stories.  Maybe not quite as harrowing as yours but some bad shit for sure, in utero drug exposure, physical, sexual, mental abuse.  Sitting before us as mature, powerful, articulate kids.  Then we heard from foster parents about the heroics and obstacles necessary to overcome to get there.  These were the success stories, but came away with an appreciation of how strong people can be and how much love and time it can take to heal.


That is awesome for adopting.  I was adopted in 1966 and things were a little different back in the day regarding private adoptions.  Most people dont know this but kids were sold all the time and still are.  The worse creature on the planet is the wolf in sheep's clothing.  33 degree ring a bell?  I was a "golden" child and that was worth more for some reason.  Talk about living the white life in style.  Someone or something was trying to knock me out of the game of life early in my life.  At 5 two ladies grabbed me by the arms at Doheny Beach and were dragging me to a waiting car to take me to the master of the world.  My foster sister yelled out that they were taking me away.  One of the ladies lost her grip of my arm and had to start over and that gave my dad a chance to yell at them to drop me and they did and took off like the rats that they were.  Fake license plate.  Cops were called and they said I was one lucky kid.  I dont lie about this kind of stuff.  I do joke around and use satire to communicate point sometimes but I will always let you know when I mean business.  This topic is serious and I mean business.  I also had a dagger left on my door when I was brought home from hospital my mom told me after I got baptized.  Anyway, I feel sad now that people are now telling me I'm a drunk driver and feels like a low blow. I was called moron and damn fool from some of the more senior assholes here at the forum.  I'm sure you know the ones I'm referring to, right? I know so many people who got the shots and all they do is drink and now I'm the drunk and I dont drink.  It's amazing how some turn the tables on people.  These are weird times for sure.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 26, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Our co-evolution with viruses has been going on way way way longer than 800 yrs and will continue.  They can evolve a lot faster than we can.  New variants emerge.  Fortunately, a product of that co-evolution is an adaptive immune system whose function is to respond to new infectious agents.  It works great in healthy people but does require exposure so the adaptive immune system can read, respond and remember the new agent.  But its hallmark is specificity; that exposure is unlikely to be nearly as effective as inducing adaptive immunity against related coronviruses.  Same reason there is a new flu shot each year.
> 
> If you are suggesting that there is somehow a CoV-2 related coronavirus that pre-exists the pandemic, persistantly infects humans, as is being revealed as a CoV-2 false positive in the PCR assay there are a number of negative controls to rule that out.  In fact, the precision of PCR, which comes in the primer design, is one of its strengths.  Its sensitivity, however, can be both a strength and weakness.
> 
> If by time stamp in the infected you mean how rapidly after infection viral genomes can be detected by PCR or otherwise that has been pretty well worked out, most cleanly in cultured cells but also in real infections.


“Usually, when people recover from acute viral infections, their immune response kills the cells affected to eliminate the virus,” says Diane Griffin, a virologist at the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. But when viruses infect long-lived cells, such as neurons, the immune system can’t afford to destroy them. That means “you don’t actually get rid of all the virus genome,” she says; instead, the virus might hide in parts of the body for long periods.

If so, this persistence may actually be key to long-term immunity. Griffin says that even if the virus isn’t spreading profusely, if its proteins are still being produced in a small number of cells, its fragments may force your body to maintain an immune response—keeping you from getting sick again.


*“A PCR test can tell you whether someone has recently caught the disease – but it can’t distinguish between the live replicating virus and non-infectious viral debris.”*

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2020/06/how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-inside-the-body


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## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)




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## Ellejustus (Jul 26, 2021)

This is so crazy and funny at the same time.  BTW @ Evil Goalie, I was never like this guy speaking in gibberish tongue language.  This is big time prosperity fools gold and fake if you want MO from me.  I was way smarter than that and I read my bible every day for over 30 years.  The gift of tongues died off soon after the Apostles were put to death for their beliefs.  Only they ((the 12 Apostles)) had the ability to hand out special gifts or some like to say talents from God to believers who were worthy.  For example, if I was Peter the rock, I could lay my hands on your head and give you the gift of tongues but you could not give the gift of tongues to Bruddah.  Only Peter could give gift to Bruddah or one of the other 11.  Some sales guys back in the day tried to buy the gifts from Peter and they were rebuked for having such a thought.  It was nice chatting with you this evening.  I will also look to stay home now and not cause any issues to my fellow brethren and neighbors.  I'm now drunk driver 24/7 so stay clear of my lane bro so you stay safe.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 27, 2021)

Today’s firestorm is that the cdc is revising its masking guidelines for the vaccinated.  This includes it is rumored that you should mask if you live with immune compromised or children under 12. That’s obviously causing some eyebrows to be raised because the recommendation would imply you have to mask around your kids even in the home. The White House clarified the cdc was still working on the language.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 27, 2021)

La times poll shows recall newsom is 47 in favor 50 opposed among likely voters, in margin of error. Newsom should win the recall election but has pretty much no room for error at this point.


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## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

*Fact

Vaxed People:*
Can still get Covid
Can still spread Covid
Can still die from Covid
*Can* potentially* die* from the Vaccine

*Unvaxed Peeple:*
Can still get from Covid
Can still spread Covid
Can still die from Covid
*Cannot die from Vaccine*


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Today’s firestorm is that the cdc is revising its masking guidelines for the vaccinated.  This includes it is rumored that you should mask if you live with immune compromised or children under 12. That’s obviously causing some eyebrows to be raised because the recommendation would imply you have to mask around your kids even in the home. The White House clarified the cdc was still working on the language.


Guidance apparently will include that everyone in k-12 schools wear masks regardless of vaccine status.


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## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Guidance apparently will include that everyone in k-12 schools wear masks regardless of vaccine status.


The power of .0002


----------



## Kicker4Life (Jul 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Guidance apparently will include that everyone in k-12 schools wear masks regardless of vaccine status.


This was the Union bargaining chip…you want inperson learning, OK…everyone has to wear a mask on campus regardless of Vax status.   But my question is WHY?  To protect staff?  Well, then the Union should only mandate what their members can do…if they are Vax’d then they should be fine. 

I don’t need some corrupt, self serving, bullshit Union dictating what me or my kids can do…..


----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> This was the Union bargaining chip…you want inperson learning, OK…everyone has to wear a mask on campus regardless of Vax status.   But my question is WHY?  To protect staff?  Well, then the Union should only mandate what their members can do…if they are Vax’d then they should be fine.
> 
> I don’t need some corrupt, self serving, bullshit Union dictating what me or my kids can do…..


Union bargaining chip?  Says who (besides you)?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Guidance apparently will include that everyone in k-12 schools wear masks regardless of vaccine status.


So the idiots want this. 

Let us review. 

- Kids have zero risk. No need for them to wear a mask. 
- Kids have zero risk. No need for them to have a vaccine. 

What is so hard to understand about that? 

Why do people run around pretending the above isn't true...and therefore worry about them masking up and getting the jab.


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## espola (Jul 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So the idiots want this.
> 
> Let us review.
> 
> ...


Zero risk?  Do you have a private definition of "zero"?









						Covid-19 Delta variant affects younger, unvaccinated populations in North Carolina
					

Children under the age of 12 remain unvaccinated as COVID-19 vaccines have not yet received approval from the Food and Drug Administration.




					www.northcarolinahealthnews.org


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## Desert Hound (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Zero risk? Do you have a private definition of "zero"?


You are an idiot. 

CDC stats show that under 17 have had a bit more than 300 deaths since covid started. 

Run the math on that and see if you can somehow stretch that to be a concerning stat. They have effectively zero risk. 

You are a troll.


----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You are an idiot.
> 
> CDC stats show that under 17 have had a bit more than 300 deaths since covid started.
> 
> ...


"Effectively zero" ain't zero.  

You may call me whatever you like, but that does not detract from your position as a primary source of misinformation.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> "Effectively zero" ain't zero.
> 
> You may call me whatever you like, but that does not detract from your position as a* primary source of misinformation.*


I just heard if you have Covid ((the Flu)) and fart, then the person next to you can get infected.  This is hot off the press Espola the troll.  Listen up and listen closely:  No more farting, wear the damn mask, get your shots and be ready for boosters and STFU because the assholes who cheat are still cheating.  No more PCR test either because they found out a banana test positive for the Rona and they basically can;t tell if you have Flu A or B so they just write down Covid.  Round and round we go.  Just like the dude who was counted for corona death after he was shot in the head but had the flu, i mean Covid when he was murdered.  Where's the beef?  Where's the flu?  Oh where oh were are you Mr. Flu?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 27, 2021)

Let us see how this idiocy works.

Bob get in here.

What is up?

We have a major problem.

What is that?

We need to get kids masked up and vaccinated as soon as possible. Definitely get it done for the start of school.

Why?

Well about 350 or so kids have died due to covid since this started.

Doesnt that average out to about 7 kids per state?

Yes!! It is all very worrisome.

You think this is a good course of action?

Absolutely! Totally reasonable precaution.

Is there anything else you are thinking about doing?

Well in addition to masks and vaccines when available, we should spend 100s of millions to get all the HVAC changed in the schools. I also hope we can get the lifesaving vaccines out to these kids ASAP and make it mandatory when it is available.

----

And that seems to be the mindset of quite a few people.

The logical response should be.

- kids are not at risk
- they dont need to get masks or a vaccine.
- the typical profile of teachers are ones not at risk as well. They tend to be younger.
- but what about those who might be at risk?
-here is the crazy solution. For those at risk, get vaccinated.
- and scrap the idea of retrofitting and getting new HVAC systems. 

That is or should be the mindset going into this year. 

But the idiocy grows. 

Hey lets make people show a vax card to do daily living. Screw that.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Let us see how this idiocy works.
> 
> Bob get in here.
> 
> ...


Hound, you are getting good with articulating what the conversations might be like with Bob and his staff.


----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Let us see how this idiocy works.
> 
> Bob get in here.
> 
> ...


It has been apparent for a long time from your posts that the reason behind your positions is pure selfishness.  There is no need to elaborate.


----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)




----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> It has been apparent for a long time from your posts that the reason behind your positions is pure selfishness.  There is no need to elaborate.


Who is more selfish, the people demanding that restrictions end on kids and they be allowed to resume their lives, or the ones having lived full lives and now vaccinated who continue to insist that children be robbed of part of their childhoods?


----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)




----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Who is more selfish, the people demanding that restrictions end on kids and they be allowed to resume their lives, or the ones having lived full lives and now vaccinated who continue to insist that children be robbed of part of their childhoods?


I remember a lot about the year 1953, the year I turned 6.  Wanna know why?  That's the year my grandfather died.  

I also remember the year 1954.  Wanna know why?  That's the year I got my first polio vaccination.  

Nobody is insisting on robbery of anything -- for that matter, I haven't encountered anyone who even brings that up, except you.  What these children will have memories of is how hard everyone tried to minimize the spread of a killer disease.

Or not -- it's up to you and people like you.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I remember a lot about the year 1953, the year I turned 6.  Wanna know why?  That's the year my grandfather died.
> 
> I also remember the year 1954.  Wanna know why?  That's the year I got my first polio vaccination.
> 
> ...


You travel in different circles than I.  Most everyone I know (including some hard core now former Ds) have said it.  The people I know all have kids in school.  IIRC you just said you don't have grandkids.  So, bubbles.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 27, 2021)

Given that the curve is on the upswing, this is effectively a national mask recommendation in all but name (I don't say mandate because the CDC has the authority to enforce bubkis on the states).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420106166558937093


----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You travel in different circles than I.  Most everyone I know (including some hard core now former Ds) have said it.  The people I know all have kids in school.  IIRC you just said you don't have grandkids.  So, bubbles.


I have nephews and nieces and grandnephews and grandnieces from preschool age to high school just-graduated.  No mention of robbery.  They just dealt with it.


----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Given that the curve is on the upswing, this is effectively a national mask recommendation in all but name (I don't say mandate because the CDC has the authority to enforce bubkis on the states).
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420106166558937093


-- bupkis --


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I have nephews and nieces and grandnephews and grandnieces from preschool age to high school just-graduated.  No mention of robbery.  They just dealt with it.


Watch the water Uncle.  You sound like a real mean Uncle if I'm going to be honest with you.  I had to correct my first post because I thought you were a grandpa but I read wrong.  Uncle Espola lol!!!

Nephew:  Hey Uncle Espola, why the mask again?  I really want to breath in the open air and breath out as well.  I want to see all the girls smile at me at school.  I would also like to chase them without a mask. It's so hard to breath Uncle with mask on all day at school.

Uncle Espola: Deal with it boy.  I got Polio shots when I was 6 you big baby.  I'll buy you another ice cream cone.  If you give me any more lip, no internet for you.

Grand Niece:  Hey Great Uncle Espola.  Uncle, can you hear me?  Hello, wake up old man ((finally wakes up)).  I feel like the last year and half of my childhood has been stolen from me and ripped away all for nothing.  When will this all end great one?  My best friend told me we now have to wear mask again.  Is that true? You already told me if I got the jabs I won't have to wear the mask ever again.  Why lie to me?

Great Uncle Espaol:  Deal with it you little spoiled brat.  I told your stupid brother that I got Polio shot when I was 6 and now it's your turn.  For your stupid questions, go to room and give me your phone.  No internet for you.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 27, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> I just heard if you have Covid ((the Flu)) and fart, then the person next to you can get infected.  This is hot off the press Espola the troll.  Listen up and listen closely:  No more farting, wear the damn mask, get your shots and be ready for boosters and STFU because the assholes who cheat are still cheating.  No more PCR test either because they found out a banana test positive for the Rona and they basically can;t tell if you have Flu A or B so they just write down Covid.  Round and round we go.  Just like the dude who was counted for corona death after he was shot in the head but had the flu, i mean Covid when he was murdered.  Where's the beef?  Where's the flu?  Oh where oh were are you Mr. Flu?


You’re still a fucking kook no matter what name you go by.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Who is more selfish, the people demanding that restrictions end on kids and they be allowed to resume their lives, or the ones having lived full lives and now vaccinated who continue to insist that children be robbed of part of their childhoods?


When one lives in a community they must compromise on some things for the overall good. I know that pisses you off. You can stomp your feet, hold your breath and pout but that’s just the way it is. All the skewed stats and opinions won’t change that.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I have nephews and nieces and grandnephews and grandnieces from preschool age to high school just-graduated.  No mention of robbery.  They just dealt with it.


Some people take responsibility for their lives, others bitch.


----------



## espola (Jul 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You’re still a fucking kook no matter what name you go by.


How many are active now?  I think I have them all on ignore, unless DH is another one of them.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> How many are active now?  I think I have them all on ignore, unless DH is another one of them.


Finally Espola.  How many are you using right now?  I will always let you know when I switch over to another avatar.  What a long three years, right?  Did you ever think it would get down to this much cheating dude?  Merit based society is coming soon, let me tell you.  The first will be last and the last first.  I'm getting my jabs.  Left arm or right arm?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

Damn fellas, is this right?  Husker Poo and Espola, is this how you guys feel too about all those T supporters?  Asking for a friend because I dint vote, thanks.  Also, Vax/Mask vs Unvax/No Mask is heating up.  God vs Devil, Heaven vs Hell and so much more.  The Typoon is hitting hard.  Please pray for those who are in harms way.   

*NYT reporter suggests declaring Trump supporters 'enemies of the state' to combat 'national security threats'

*


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)




----------



## N00B (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Union bargaining chip?  Says who (besides you)?


… everyone with school aged kids.  Have you really replaced your former parental standards so quickly after graduation?!  Guess it’s all about you now, Mr. ‘Conservative’…


----------



## N00B (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> It has been apparent for a long time from your posts that the reason behind your positions is pure selfishness.  There is no need to elaborate.


please look in the mirror.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

@ Husker Poo ((if you want to watch)) and @ uncle Espola.  This video is disturbing and more distrubing is your complete 100% loyalty to JB.  Hunter had or has a problem and I hope he can seek treatment.  I read all his emails with the "Big Guy" and let me just say it was heart wrentching for me. Poor Hunter was 100% born into some serious _______________________________________________.  His dad was the biggest hypocrite ever and super harsh with his penealties for drug use back in the day.  5 years for 1/4 size rock of crack.  5 freaking years.  How did this champ get 81,000,000 votes Espola? Drip, Drip and more Drip= Censorship all over the US very soon.  It had to happen this way.  This is sad and i cant believe you whole heartily supported the old JB and I see how much you love this new version.  Are you half blind @ Uncle Espola?  









						Hunter Watches Dad in his Prime Years
					

Watching Pop before the stutter and the cognitive decline.  Download the video: https://up-load.io/l33228fzhupo




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

This has been an emotional couple days for me everyone.  I found out two days ago I'm 100% SOL and cannot make any ______________________ unless I get jab.  Yesterday, I found out I'm a drunk driver unless I get jab.  Also, it's all my fault as well if someone who got jab two months ago gets the Delta because I was not jab yet.  I can't take it anymore and I put my hands up.  I need Jab. I want to be normal too, just like the rest of you.  I miss being in the group and hate being left out.  I'm looking at J & J.  Dad knows his jabs and my best pal got J&J and he's doing great he says and even stopped believing in God.  Weird how that worked out for him.  Does someone else have a better jab recommendation?  Please please, let me know asap.  Also, if anyone knows of one to stay the hell away from I would like a heads up on that intel.  You can PM me if you want if you don;t want to share openly with the group.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> It has been apparent for a long time from your posts that the reason behind your positions is pure selfishness.  There is no need to elaborate.


Oh, please elaborate how your selfishness is better.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11145


Sucker


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Who is more selfish, the people demanding that restrictions end on kids and they be allowed to resume their lives, or the ones having lived full lives and now vaccinated who continue to insist that children be robbed of part of their childhoods?


Kids are the first line of defense.  Making kids wear mask denies kids natural immunity according to Espola's petrie dishes.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I remember a lot about the year 1953, the year I turned 6.  Wanna know why?  That's the year my grandfather died.
> 
> I also remember the year 1954.  Wanna know why?  That's the year I got my first polio vaccination.
> 
> ...


Nonsense


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I have nephews and nieces and grandnephews and grandnieces from preschool age to high school just-graduated.  No mention of robbery.  They just dealt with it.


Have you ever been robbed?  How did you just deal with it?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> When one lives in a community they must compromise on some things for the overall good. I know that pisses you off. You can stomp your feet, hold your breath and pout but that’s just the way it is. All the skewed stats and opinions won’t change that.


The Cowards Creed.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> "Effectively zero" ain't zero.


Effectively it means that 999,994 survive in the absence of a vaccine.  Please continue your selfish fear mongering you coward.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

Hey Espola, have some advice for the mayor to hire more cops in Seattle?  

*Seattle mayor calls for more police after six shootings in one weekend*
*Mayor Jenny Durkan said Seattle lost 250 officers over the past 17 months*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Some people take responsibility for their lives, others bitch.


You tell'um.....bitch


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> I think I have them all on ignore


Just wear your mask.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

NY Gov Cuomo Announces What Sounds Like Forced Vaccinations
					

"We have to knock on those doors, and we have to convince people, put them in a car and drive them and get that vaccine in their arm. That is the mission."  We're in a lot of trouble!   Download the video: https://up-load.io/gmh1lzx4lin3




					www.bitchute.com
				




Strike Force: Get in the car now!

Non Vax dude:  Why

Strike Force:  STFU and get in the car now.  Stop asking stupid questions


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 27, 2021)

espola said:


> Zero risk?  Do you have a private definition of "zero"?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The CDC is in a bit of a rough spot. They have to show a super low IFR to justify vaccine efficacy by hitchhiking on the innate and adaptive immune system and other therapies.  If the IFR goes above "ain't exactly zero" what should we make of vax efficacy?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

Espola candidate stutters like I used to.....lol









						Ladies & Gentlemen: The Most Popular President in US History
					

He's been in the senate for 180 years, so give him a break.  Or or or or or or maybe he needs a reboot.  .  Download the video: https://up-load.io/ipedxl74u0cs




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 27, 2021)

I dedicate this song to Husker Poo and Espola.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 28, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Finally Espola.  How many are you using right now?  I will always let you know when I switch over to another avatar.  What a long three years, right?  Did you ever think it would get down to this much cheating dude?  Merit based society is coming soon, let me tell you.  The first will be last and the last first.  I'm getting my jabs.  Left arm or right arm?


We all see the world through the prism of our own personal experience.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> How many are active now?  I think I have them all on ignore, unless DH is another one of them.


Funny how those who are guilty try to claim others do likewise. The emotionally distraught like that kook are the only ones who are desperate enough, care so deeply about pushing their agenda and apparently have the time to post under multiple aliases.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 28, 2021)

Why is it the unhinged lunatics in these forums are always righties? Grandpa duck, nononono, sheriff joe and now we have Sybil.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> We all see the world through the prism of our own personal experience.


Yes, I now understand that cheating is the Husker prism way of life. I watched a youth sport of cheaters for a long time bro.  Dad Cheaters also do other bad things because they cheat to get on top of the world.  Whatever it takes to be winner is the Husker and Espola way of life.  Cheaters will NOT prosper this time around.  You got caught, give it back dude.  If you steal a car and get caught, you dont get to keep the car for the effort.  You have to return the car and then serve the time.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Why is it the unhinged lunatics in these forums are always righties? Grandpa duck, nononono, sheriff joe and now we have Sybil.


Husker only uses 4% of his brain.  Still playing the right vs left game.  Those days are over bro.  You and Espola are stuck in dualism.  Us vs Them is old trick for war.  I tried to help you and others but you only go left and for that reason you will never grow up.  Poor little man stuck going left.  Try and turn your head to the right a little so you can learn from others. Some who lived in their prism will go to prison!  Enjoy the day little guy.
Lot's of folks wearing fake body suit and face mask these days Husker.......lol!!!


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Funny how those who are guilty try to claim others do likewise. The emotionally distraught like that kook are the only ones who are desperate enough, care so deeply about pushing their agenda and apparently have the time to post under multiple aliases.


Funny how Espola lost every important debate with me over the years and he ignores me because he lost.  Cheaters!!!  He can't ever say, "you win fair and square?"  Sore losers is what both of you are.  He has to speak through you and have you call me names.  Do you guys PM each other and go over the game plan to take me on?  What a loser who uses Husker as his middleman.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Why is it the unhinged lunatics in these forums are always righties? Grandpa duck, nononono, sheriff joe and now we have Sybil.


Make sure to order your Giza Dreamz Sheets Husker if you want to be like me bro.  My wife & I both have a "my pillow" and now were just waiting on Mike to start selling mattresses so I can have it all.


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Why is it the unhinged lunatics in these forums are always righties? Grandpa duck, nononono, sheriff joe and now we have Sybil.


And don't forget the plumber.  He wasn't an unhinged lunatic, just opinionated -- and often obviously wrong.  As I recall, he didn't remember at one point that there are 24 hours in a day.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> And don't forget the plumber.  He wasn't an unhinged lunatic, just opinionated -- and often obviously wrong.  As I recall, he didn't remember at one point that there are 24 hours in a day.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 28, 2021)

Australia once reveled in being the 'lucky country' on Covid-19. Now weary Aussies 'feel like prisoners' | CNN
					

A postcard of kangaroos lounging among gumtrees arrives in our letterbox in London, addressed to my 4-year-old daughter.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

God Help us!!!









						Schiff, Kinzinger Turn on the Waterworks for 1/6 Hearing
					

During a January 6 Committee hearing Tuesday, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) choked up as they addressed the room.




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> And don't forget the plumber.  He wasn't an unhinged lunatic, just opinionated -- and often obviously wrong.  As I recall, he didn't remember at one point that there are 24 hours in a day.


. . . and there is always dizzy’s math! Lol!


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> . . . and there is always dizzy’s math! Lol!


Cheater!!!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 28, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> View attachment 11154


Oh look psycho boy has a new word.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Oh look psycho boy has a new word.


Cheater!!!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 28, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Cheater!!!


Here’s your hero the cheater in chief.

“How you do one thing is how you do everything.”









						How and why President Trump cheats at golf — even when he’s playing against Tiger Woods
					

Whether you’re Trump’s pharmacist or Tiger Woods, if you’re playing golf with the President, he’s going to cheat. In fact, he did cheat with Tiger Woods.




					golf.com


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Here’s your hero the cheater in chief.
> 
> “How you do one thing you will do with all things”
> 
> ...


Cheater!!!


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> . . . and there is always dizzy’s math! Lol!


I started out thinking that Izzy knew what he was talking about in matters of economy and finance (or at least had interesting opinions worth discussing).  Then he made a fundamental error in describing Fed overnight rates, and even quoting the Fed's own documents on it couldn't sway him.  He eventually devolved to quoting long passages of right-wing political screed (allegedly libertarian, but the bias was obvious) in consecutive posts.  I gave up reading him.  Has he posted anything worth reading recently?


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Oh look psycho boy has a new word.


You made me look.  What's that all about?


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Here’s your hero the cheater in chief.
> 
> “How you do one thing is how you do everything.”
> 
> ...


I guess if you own the course, you get to set the rules, so it's not really cheating then, is it?  But he drives across the green!  That's unforgivable.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Effectively it means that 999,994 survive in the absence of a vaccine.  Please continue your selfish fear mongering you coward.


Or to put in other terms...

72 million kids. In the past year and a half, 350 from that group have died. 

And supposedly rational people look at that number and think they should mask up. And oh yeah when a vax is available for them, make them get it.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I guess if you own the course, you get to set the rules, so it's not really cheating then, is it?  But he drives across the green!  That's unforgivable.


Cheater!!!


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Australia once reveled in being the 'lucky country' on Covid-19. Now weary Aussies 'feel like prisoners' | CNN
> 
> 
> A postcard of kangaroos lounging among gumtrees arrives in our letterbox in London, addressed to my 4-year-old daughter.
> ...


The feel like prisoners because that is how they are being treated.


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The feel like prisoners because that is how they are being treated.


They're being treated like prisoners because they are in jail.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> They're being treated like prisoners because they are in jail.


Cheater!


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Ontario's Chief Medical Officers of Health Dr. Yaffe and Dr. williams Caught in Hot Mic Moment
					

Dr. (((Barbara Yaffe))): "I just say whatever they write down for me."  Dr. Williams: "Yeah, same."  I wonder who (((they))) are...  Download the video: https://dlsharefile.com/file/MGMzMm




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

The U.S. Government’s Noble Lies About COVID-19
					

When Fauci said in March 2020 that Americans didn’t need to wear masks, it was a noble lie—and a destructive one.




					slate.com


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

Delta wave in UK much milder than anticipated and so far removal of restrictions (which came at the peak) has had no impact.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420323197967294466


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

When the CDC has even lost Gottlieb...note too based on the UK data Gottlieb believes the worst of the delta will be behind us in 4-6 weeks.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420383990159134721


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

He can't afford too many more errors like this......









						Newsom pulls kids from summer camp after maskless revelation
					

Newsom's two eldest children, ages 11 and 10, attended the camp for a day.




					www.politico.com


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The U.S. Government’s Noble Lies About COVID-19
> 
> 
> When Fauci said in March 2020 that Americans didn’t need to wear masks, it was a noble lie—and a destructive one.
> ...


Does that mean that we do need to wear masks now?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Does that mean that we do need to wear masks now?


Cheater & Liar!


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Delta wave in UK much milder than anticipated and so far removal of restrictions (which came at the peak) has had no impact.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420323197967294466


It has been apparent for a bit of time that in the West, the delta variant is NOT an issue. 

When he says milder vs anticipated. That is an understatement. Cases are completely detached from deaths. 

This should be good news regarding the vaccines. The normal response should be carry on and live life. Based on the data it should not be masks and more restrictions.


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He can't afford too many more errors like this......
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It was an error to send the kids there in the first place?  Or to pull them out when he found out some were unmasked?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

This is all prep for more violence in the fall I'm afraid.  It's to cover their shameful faces when the criminals go out to riot and steal.  I just saw a video of people walking into a store in SF and walking out with "free" stuff and no one does a thing.  This is her city and it's 100% ok to do.  The employees just stand and watch and do nothing. I guess that's the new way to shop.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> It was an error to send the kids there in the first place?  Or to pull them out when he found out some were unmasked?


Cheater!


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> When the CDC has even lost Gottlieb...note too based on the UK data Gottlieb believes the worst of the delta will be behind us in 4-6 weeks.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420383990159134721


Wasn't Dr Gottlieb "lost" when he went back to AEI?  Or when he took an appointment from t?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Wasn't Dr Gottlieb "lost" when he went back to AEI?  Or when he took an appointment from t?


Cheater!


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It has been apparent for a bit of time that in the West, the delta variant is NOT an issue.
> 
> When he says milder vs anticipated. That is an understatement. Cases are completely detached from deaths.
> 
> This should be good news regarding the vaccines. The normal response should be carry on and live life. Based on the data it should not be masks and more restrictions.


All true, but I think in this case they are including even milder by way of cases, which is true.  The usual UK egg headed crowd was sure that cases would surpass the winter wave especially once restrictions were lifted.  Lifting masking and gathering restrictions did nothing.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> This is all prep for more violence in the fall I'm afraid.  It's to cover their shameful faces when the criminals go out to riot and steal.  I just saw a video of people walking into a store in SF and walking out with "free" stuff and no one does a thing.  This is her city and it's 100% ok to do.  The employees just stand and watch and do nothing. I guess that's the new way to shop.
> 
> View attachment 11164


Does SF have its mask mandate back yet?  It would be funny if people were allowed to rob convenience stores without consequences, but kicked out for not wearing a mask.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> All true, but I think in this case they are including even milder by way of cases, which is true.  The usual UK egg headed crowd was sure that cases would surpass the winter wave especially once restrictions were lifted.  Lifting masking and gathering restrictions did nothing.


Good morning Grace.  I have to take a break and gather myself.  You go girl and don;t let these punks get to you.  I love how smart you are.  You play fair and look for the truth.  It's hard to find when people lie through their teeth and cheat all the time.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Wasn't Dr Gottlieb "lost" when he went back to AEI?  Or when he took an appointment from t?


So based on that idiotic logic from you...had he gone to a left leaning organization that then would make his opinion MORE valid...right?

You are a troll.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Does SF have its mask mandate back yet?  It would be funny if people were allowed to rob convenience stores without consequences, but kicked out for not wearing a mask.


The thieves are wearing mask from the video I saw.  That's the cover they use.  I watched it all live on KCAL 9 news when all this started in Santa Monica last year.  Cops stood by as people with mask on and black helmets and skate boards broke window after window and took whatever they felt was rightfully theirs because. This is not about the flu A or B.  It's about forcing everyone to get the jab.  I was going to go today for my free Jab and chance at winning $1,000,000 but now I feel it's best to wait and see how this all plays out.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Good morning Grace.  I have to take a break and gather myself.  You go girl and don;t let these punks get to you.  I love how smart you are.  You play fair and look for the truth.  It's hard to find when people lie through their teeth and cheat all the time.


I love that espola has gone pure full troll now.  Gone is the only care about truther, the neutral "fact checker", the "true conversative."  He's not even trying to pretend anymore.  Just letting the troll sit there in the sun and take it all in.


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So based on that idiotic logic from you...had he gone to a left leaning organization that then would make his opinion MORE valid...right?
> 
> You are a troll.


Did you have something to say besides the name-calling?


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I love that espola has gone pure full troll now.  Gone is the only care about truther, the neutral "fact checker", the "true conversative."  He's not even trying to pretend anymore.  Just letting the troll sit there in the sun and take it all in.


I haven't changed, but your tactics seem to have become more desperate.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I haven't changed, but your tactics seem to have become more desperate.



Haha.  That's funny.   Now you are not only doing trolling, but also comedy.  I approve.


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Haha.  That's funny.   Now you are not only doing trolling, but also comedy.  I approve.


Other than the name-calling, did you actually have something to say?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)

So besides the humor of the video (by the way the press would be having a field day every day all day if Don Jr was smoking crack)...listen to how Biden talked back then vs his rather diminished ability to create coherent sentences now.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420115864272007172


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Did you have something to say besides the name-calling?


Cheat


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So besides the humor of the video (by the way the press would be having a field day every day all day if Don Jr was smoking crack)...listen to how Biden talked back then vs his rather diminished ability to create coherent sentences now.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420115864272007172


I have actually feel pain for him.  Look up the book JB dd wrote about Pops.  Being born into evil deserves compassion from all of us.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Other than the name-calling, did you actually have something to say?


Encore!  Encore!  Think you may have overlooked a career in comedy.  Retirement second act?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Encore!  Encore!  Think you may have overlooked a career in comedy.  Retirement second act?


When one gets caught cheating, they either joke it off like nothing happen or they get upset and call people like me an idiot.  Hes all talk and no actin.  100% againts truth and juctice.  Dont let him slide Grace.  He's a cheater until he repents!!!


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Encore!  Encore!  Think you may have overlooked a career in comedy.  Retirement second act?


Just by coincidence, I have been working up some jokes --

Old age joke (used to be a middle-aged joke)  -- You know you are old when you reach into the medicine cabinet in the dark (lights off so as not to disturb your partner) for the Preparation H and get the BenGay by mistake.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> You made me look.  What's that all about?


Nothing worth your time.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I guess if you own the course, you get to set the rules, so it's not really cheating then, is it?  But he drives across the green!  That's unforgivable.


He had awarded himself trophies for club championships that either only he participated in or didn’t even play in. He once claimed to be club champion because in one round he played with the real club champion he claimed he won, although he cheated in that round. He doesn’t actually compete in sanctioned competitions because the other golfers would hold him accountable and that is one thing the donald avoids like the plague, accountability.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

La Public Health is now in full panic mode.  I can't believe they'd send out an emergency alert via text.  It says: "Emergency Alert!  Public Safety Alert....COVID cases are rapidly rising.  Protect yourself, loved ones, and your community by getting vaccinated now.  Vaccines are free, safe and highly effective.  If you are experiencing COID 19 systems get tested right away...."  They are beclowning themselves.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Or to put in other terms...
> 
> 72 million kids. In the past year and a half, 350 from that group have died.
> 
> And supposedly rational people look at that number and think they should mask up. And oh yeah when a vax is available for them, make them get it.


I look at 350 and wonder how many of that number died before they started attending school?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> I started out thinking that Izzy knew what he was talking about in matters of economy and finance (or at least had interesting opinions worth discussing).  Then he made a fundamental error in describing Fed overnight rates, and even quoting the Fed's own documents on it couldn't sway him.  He eventually devolved to quoting long passages of right-wing political screed (allegedly libertarian, but the bias was obvious) in consecutive posts.  I gave up reading him.  Has he posted anything worth reading recently?


I’ve had him on ignore on and off for years, good part of a decade, right now he’s on.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Just by coincidence, I have been working up some jokes --
> 
> Old age joke (used to be a middle-aged joke)  -- You know you are old when you reach into the medicine cabinet in the dark (lights off so as not to disturb your partner) for the Preparation H and get the BenGay by mistake.


Cheater


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> La Public Health is now in full panic mode.  I can't believe they'd send out an emergency alert via text.  It says: "Emergency Alert!  Public Safety Alert....COVID cases are rapidly rising.  Protect yourself, loved ones, and your community by getting vaccinated now.  Vaccines are free, safe and highly effective.  If you are experiencing COID 19 systems get tested right away...."  They are beclowning themselves.


Are they in panic? Or are they trying to panic the sheep again?

They definitely freak out my bro and sis in law. 

They are driving around together wearing masks in the car. 

I asked him...you and your wife live together and don't wear a mask in the house. Can you explain to me why suddenly when you get into the car together the masks go on?

Crickets. 

When you have an irrational fear, it is hard to articulate why you do certain things.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> La Public Health is now in full panic mode.  I can't believe they'd send out an emergency alert via text.  It says: "Emergency Alert!  Public Safety Alert....COVID cases are rapidly rising.  Protect yourself, loved ones, and your community by getting vaccinated now.  Vaccines are free, safe and highly effective.  If you are experiencing COID 19 systems get tested right away...."  They are beclowning themselves.


Corporate Welfare has always been disgusting.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Are they in panic? Or are they trying to panic the sheep again?


The black sheep aren't buying it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> When the CDC has even lost Gottlieb...note too based on the UK data Gottlieb believes the worst of the delta will be behind us in 4-6 weeks.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420383990159134721


But we like Socialist one size fits all policies.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> He had awarded himself trophies for club championships that either only he participated in or didn’t even play in. He once claimed to be club champion because in one round he played with the real club champion he claimed he won, although he cheated in that round. He doesn’t actually compete in sanctioned competitions because the other golfers would hold him accountable and that is one thing the donald avoids like the plague, accountability.


Whatever you say Husker Douche.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> I’ve had him on ignore on and off for years, good part of a decade, right now he’s on.


Cheaters and those who support the cheats will be ignored all over the world very very soon.  JB is giving us all clues on what the next topics of discussion will be about.  Lap top from hell will give us all pause and refelction in the abuse to children for centuries.  I hear Huma's ex husbands lap top is so bad that we wont be able to watch because you will never recover emtionally from it.  It had to be done this way.  When you know the heist of all heists is about to take place, you sit back and let them steal so you can catch every single one of the rats who sold their soul for 30 coins.  My hope someday is that you and I and Espola, Bruddah, Hound and Grace have a toast to trtuth and justice for all, especially the kids.  Is that possible???


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Jul 28, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Why is it the unhinged lunatics in these forums are always righties? Grandpa duck, nononono, sheriff joe and now we have Sybil.


Eotl seemed to be totally sane and level headed.


----------



## MARsSPEED (Jul 28, 2021)

Imagine if this was a Republican President's son. 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420079833921490950


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> Imagine if this was a Republican President's son.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420079833921490950


Seems like Joe and Storm were old pals too.  These guys were so harsh with their peneties for crack addiction.  Total assholes gave them the crack origionaly, right Espola? Where did the crack originialy come from?  With the measure you use to judge, that measure will be used to judge you.  Tables will be turned folks, hold your horses and judgement.  We all need mercy, some more than others.  Hunter grew up in hells house folks.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> Imagine if this was a Republican President's son.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420079833921490950


We don't have to. 

They made up "scandals" for the entire T term. Imagine if they had a real story.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420484611465961472


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420480007995072516


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420484611465961472


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> Imagine if this was a Republican President's son.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420079833921490950


At the end of the video, did you notice the Lakes on his back Mars?  This is what darkness looks like.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jul 28, 2021)

Chelsea dad g09 said:


> Eotl seemed to be totally sane and level headed.


Until he started to talk about the Mafia and Nazis. It was the first sign.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420480007995072516


Here's what will happen next: 

1. Some cities/counties/states will mandate masks again citing CDC guidance, while others will not 
2. COVID metrics in surge areas will decrease at roughly the same time regardless of mask policy 
3. Experts claim "victory" for masks anyway 
4. Repeat


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> Imagine if this was a Republican President's son.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420079833921490950



I found a close up.  Research Finger Lakes.  Legend has it that's where Satan vacations.  It's all starting to add up Mars.  Deep down the rabbit hole we go.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 28, 2021)

*CDC Ditz Rachel Walensky: Don't Worry, You're Only Going to Have to Wear Masks and Socially Distance for "A Couple of Weeks"*
*—Ace*
A couple of weeks you say...?

Gee, why does that sound so extremely familiar to me...?

Oh well, if the Ruling Class says it's just for "a couple of weeks," I trust them. They've never lied to me before.



> Dr. Rochelle Walensky says new mask-wearing guidance, coupled with higher rates of vaccination against COVID-19, could halt the current escalation of infections in "a couple of weeks."


A couple of weeks to "halt the current escalation of infections?"

Help me out, guys -- why does this sound so damnably familar?



> The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told "CBS This Morning" she hopes more stringent mask-wearing guidelines and other measures won't be necessary as the country heads into the fall.



Wait, she said we just needed "a couple of weeks" and then shifted to sayin she "*"hopes"* that more stringent measures won't be needed "heading into the fall."

It sounds to me like she intends for us to wear masks for more than "a couple of weeks," but is just lying about "a couple of weeks" to get us on-board with the scheme.

She wouldn't do that, would she?


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

What you need to know about the CDC’s new mask guidelines
					

We answered five big questions about the new covid guidance in the US, which recommends masks in some public places.




					www.technologyreview.com


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

“The doubt mongers have a much easier job than scientists because they don’t have to prove anything.”
—Naomi Oreskes, a science historian and expert on climate denial at Harvard, says the anti-vax movement is following the same playbook.​


----------



## what-happened (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> “The doubt mongers have a much easier job than scientists because they don’t have to prove anything.”
> —Naomi Oreskes, a science historian and expert on climate denial at Harvard, says the anti-vax movement is following the same playbook.​


How would you get people to be vaxxed? Honest question, no politics, but an honest to goodness public health strategy?  

I'm in low income communities on a daily basis.  Not one billboard, not one person from any government vertical trying to convince anyone to get a vaccine. I go back home or back to the office, turn on the TV and behold!  the unvaccinated are being demonized. People in suits behind desks inchorently ranting about how the followers of orange man are driving the pandemic of the unvaxxed.  What a crock.  In the meantime, black and brown people will continue to not be vaxxed, cases will increase, masks come back, places where they work will be forced to close, and their jobs go poof...Fun times.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

what-happened said:


> How would you get people to be vaxxed? Honest question, no politics, but an honest to goodness public health strategy?
> 
> I'm in low income communities on a daily basis.  Not one billboard, not one person from any government vertical trying to convince anyone to get a vaccine. I go back home or back to the office, turn on the TV and behold!  the unvaccinated are being demonized. People in suits behind desks inchorently ranting about how the followers of orange man are driving the pandemic of the unvaxxed.  What a crock.  In the meantime, black and brown people will continue to not be vaxxed, cases will increase, masks come back, places where they work will be forced to close, and their jobs go poof...Fun times.


Cuomo was on tv today calling for the offices to reopen. Apparently there’s some worry about the commercial real estate market numbers.  Plus some downstream effects like luncheons travel and conferences. But the offices won’t reopen fully if there’s a mask mandate. White collar workers will already feel a loss about having flex time traded into face time. They going to give up jobs they can do from home to be masked all day esp at ny hours?  Same with downstream effects…no offices mean no work lunches…masks mean no conferences (i and 4 others I know in law and pharma have just had some cancelled or moved remote this week)….masks mean travel is restricted to certain essential things since the new guidance limits it to hot spots (and you can’t have employees being ordered into hot spots)


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

what-happened said:


> How would you get people to be vaxxed? Honest question, no politics, but an honest to goodness public health strategy?
> 
> I'm in low income communities on a daily basis.  Not one billboard, not one person from any government vertical trying to convince anyone to get a vaccine. I go back home or back to the office, turn on the TV and behold!  the unvaccinated are being demonized. People in suits behind desks inchorently ranting about how the followers of orange man are driving the pandemic of the unvaxxed.  What a crock.  In the meantime, black and brown people will continue to not be vaxxed, cases will increase, masks come back, places where they work will be forced to close, and their jobs go poof...Fun times.


See how easy that was?


----------



## what-happened (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Cuomo was on tv today calling for the offices to reopen. Apparently there’s some worry about the commercial real estate market numbers.  Plus some downstream effects like luncheons travel and conferences. But the offices won’t reopen fully if there’s a mask mandate. White collar workers will already feel a loss about having flex time traded into face time. They going to give up jobs they can do from home to be masked all day esp at ny hours?  Same with downstream effects…no offices mean no work lunches…masks mean no conferences (i and 4 others I know in law and pharma have just had some cancelled or moved remote this week)….masks mean travel is restricted to certain essential things since the new guidance limits it to hot spots (and you can’t have employees being ordered into hot spots)


many people have already left their job (voluntarily).  This the largest public health failure I've ever seen.  Play the blame and mandate game, froth at the mouth but not one coherent, tactically sound solution put forth.  There are plenty of people who can be convinced to take the jab, no one is trying.  It's like a bad school project..


----------



## what-happened (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> See how easy that was?


I don't see, must be typed in invisible ink..


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

what-happened said:


> There are plenty of people who can be convinced to take the jab, no one is trying.


It's not just that they aren't actively trying, but their actions have been repeatedly counterproductive...the questioning of the "Trump vaccine", the J&J halt, then the slowwalk on the myocarditis issue, the failure to study the pregnancy miscarriage issue, the flip flop on masks, the deferring to interest groups like teacher's unions, the failure to rush study on alternative treatments, the demonizing of the unvaccinated by some politicians and the media, the politicization of it all (by some blaming the Rs), and their just ignoring what the real impacts of natural immunity might be (which from the initial Israeli data might actually be more robust than vaccine immunity, depending on how badly you got the illness).


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

what-happened said:


> many people have already left their job (voluntarily).  This the largest public health failure I've ever seen.  Play the blame and mandate game, froth at the mouth but not one coherent, tactically sound solution put forth.  There are plenty of people who can be convinced to take the jab, no one is trying.  It's like a bad school project..


Interesting world you live in.


----------



## espola (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's not just that they aren't actively trying, but their actions have been repeatedly counterproductive...the questioning of the "Trump vaccine", the J&J halt, then the slowwalk on the myocarditis issue, the failure to study the pregnancy miscarriage issue, the flip flop on masks, the deferring to interest groups like teacher's unions, the failure to rush study on alternative treatments, the demonizing of the unvaccinated by some politicians and the media, the politicization of it all (by some blaming the Rs), and their just ignoring what the real impacts of natural immunity might be (which from the initial Israeli data might actually be more robust than vaccine immunity, depending on how badly you got the illness).


Gobbledegook.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Gobbledegook.


We've got a new one.....better than nonsense or coocoo..... I like it.

"Oh Magoo, you old bean, you've done it again!"


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> “The doubt mongers have a much easier job than scientists because they don’t have to prove anything.”
> —Naomi Oreskes, a science historian and expert on climate denial at Harvard, says the anti-vax movement is following the same playbook.​


Liar & cheat.  Tell me Uncle, Is the theory of Gravity still a theory?  What say you Einstein?  How about the theory of Evolution?  Is it still a theory?  No more lying dude and this is not a joke.  I want answers back by 9pm tonight.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> See how easy that was?


Not funny anymore cheater!!!  I was talking to a waiter who told me under no terms will he put on the mask.  I didnt ask if he got the jab.  Dude is cool and just wants to breathe freely.  Why do you joke about this issue and never address the the abuse of the females?  Why Uncle Espola?  Horrible person to not admit cheating when caught.


----------



## Lion Eyes (Jul 28, 2021)

More bad news...
[SHORT VERSION] Black conservative leaders discuss how the NRA was created to protect freed slaves - YouTube


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 28, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> We don't have to.
> 
> They made up "scandals" for the entire T term. Imagine if they had a real story.


Couple of seasons of nonsense.


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Jul 28, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> Until he started to talk about the Mafia and Nazis. It was the first sign.


I blocked him around the time he blamed the parents for every child suicide. Heck of a guy he was.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jul 28, 2021)

Chelsea dad g09 said:


> I blocked him around the time he blamed the parents for every child suicide. Heck of a guy he was.


They or it was the worst. Nothing ever came from them that talked about the game. Which is why we all know it had no children playing. It was always to attack. Thank you DOM!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 28, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420480007995072516




Parameter            Scenario 1Scenario 2              Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate


Ro​2.0​4.0​2.5​

*Infection 
fatality 
ratio 
(Estim-
-ated 
number 
of 
deaths 
per 
1,000,000 
infections)*†0–17 years old: 6
18–49 years old: 150
50–64 years old: 1,800
65+ years old: 26,0000–17 years old: 80
18–49 years old: 1,700
50–64 years old: 20,000
65+ years old: 270,0000–17 years old: 20
18–49 years old: 500
50–64 years old: 6,000
65+ years old: 90,000


Lotsa fear being leveraged with IFR's of .000006 to .00008 for school children.  And last I checked most kids don't start school until they are 5 years old.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 28, 2021)

espola said:


> Interesting world you live in.


makes me wonder where you live.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jul 28, 2021)

what-happened said:


> makes me wonder where you live.


You asked the spin doctor a rhetorical question.


----------



## what-happened (Jul 28, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> You asked the spin doctor a rhetorical question.


no doubt - give him some time to spin himself around some more


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jul 28, 2021)

what-happened said:


> no doubt - give him some time to spin himself around some more


If he doesn’t give himself a headache I’m sure it will be passed onto someone else.


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jul 28, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Cheaters and those who support the cheats will be ignored all over the world very very soon.  JB is giving us all clues on what the next topics of discussion will be about.  Lap top from hell will give us all pause and refelction in the abuse to children for centuries.  I hear Huma's ex husbands lap top is so bad that we wont be able to watch because you will never recover emtionally from it.  It had to be done this way.  When you know the heist of all heists is about to take place, you sit back and let them steal so you can catch every single one of the rats who sold their soul for 30 coins.  My hope someday is that you and I and Espola, Bruddah, Hound and Grace have a toast to trtuth and justice for all, especially the kids.  Is that possible???


This is illogical. The term/entity known as My Space should reverence the vacuum of your
mind.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Jul 28, 2021)

Chelsea dad g09 said:


> I blocked him around the time he blamed the parents for every child suicide. Heck of a guy he was.


He's still here under different names.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 28, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> *“A PCR test can tell you whether someone has recently caught the disease – but it can’t distinguish between the live replicating virus and non-infectious viral debris.”*
> https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2020/06/how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-inside-the-body


I had to put on chest waders to get back here and it sure wasn't like sloshing through a pristine trout stream.  Where do people find this crap? And why? Anyway, two things.  First, non-infectious viral debris ls like the genome remnants left over after adaptive immunity kicks in and there's residual clean up on aisle 5.  Chopped up viral RNA, RTPCR will amplify it just fine as long as the primer binding sites are there.  But that comes at the end of the acute phase of the infection.  Certainly does not precede it like I suspect you may be thinking. Second, its a decent article. The idea that long-haulers have some sort of persistent chronic infection lingering in immune privledged cells after the acute phase is over is likely to be right in some way, shape, or form, IMO.  As I understand it (I'm not an immunologist but can generally keep up) much of the pathways involved in innate immunity, which will constantly be trying to go after the virus that managed to avoid clearance through adaptive immunity, funnels down to persistent inflammation.  My sister, who is otherwise generally healthy, has an underlying thyroid condition, and she's a managing long-hauler.  Doesn't surprise me a bit. For hepatitis C, mentioned in the article, a lot of these pathways are starting to be understood at a molecular level.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 28, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> BTW @ Evil Goalie, I was never like this guy speaking in gibberish tongue language.


I withhold judgement. My Mama, she grew up in Appalachia in the late 30's/early 40's.  Pentecostal church.  You want to talk about fear mongering? She's told me about it. The traveling serpent dude would come every so often.  Towards Easter preacher would go out and talk to the white heat guy and he'd come in like a skunk and speak in tongues.  Before funerals, white heat Daddy would beat you back at home if you didn't kiss the corpse.  Much deeper and darker than the soft flesh redneck paradise I grew up in.  You a Lucinda Williams fan?  Seems to fit.

Man running through the grass outside
Says he wants to take up serpents
Says he will drink the deadly thing
And it will not hurt him

He asked me "Would you jump into the water with me"
I said no way baby that's your own death you see

Junebug vs hurricane.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 28, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Parameter            Scenario 1Scenario 2              Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate
> 
> 
> Ro​2.0​4.0​2.5​
> ...


And for R0 4, unvaxxed granny is at IFR 0.27.  R0 for delta might be between 5-8.  So that's an IFR of 0.34-0.54 (Dad4-if I follow the math it should be a simple linear relationship between R0 and IFR; if you think I'm off let me know).  Let's say the Grannies and Grandpa's out there are 80% vaxxed, and the vaxx is  95% efficacious versus mortality.  That's still 0.085-0.135 IFR.  As we get closer to school starting, vaxx rate is flat, delta is flexing it's muscles a bit, that's what's driving this.  Remember, everybody else is paying a penalty to try and drive down the effective IFR for the susceptible segment of the population.  If he were still with us, Milton Friedman would be doing an old man dribble in his tidy whities.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> *This is illogical.* The term/entity known as My Space should reverence the vacuum of your
> mind.


One thing about you and me Lastman, we are 100% opposite.  Thanks for not calling me a moron this time.  I understand people like you but people like you have no idea how to relate to people like me.  You told me three years ago that you knew my pals in this sport, right?  I came at the abuse a different way then the "logical" way.  I'm different, remember that.  I told the dads and the Doc at the time ((he vanished like a fart in the wind and never answered my questions)) that they will wish they never lied to me or my dd and all the other stuff.  Sex and lying games when females are around is not healthy for girls bro.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> I had to put on chest waders to get back here and it sure wasn't like sloshing through a pristine trout stream.  Where do people find this crap? And why? Anyway, two things.  First, non-infectious viral debris ls like the genome remnants left over after adaptive immunity kicks in and there's residual clean up on aisle 5.  Chopped up viral RNA, RTPCR will amplify it just fine as long as the primer binding sites are there.  But that comes at the end of the acute phase of the infection.  Certainly does not precede it like I suspect you may be thinking. Second, its a decent article. The idea that long-haulers have some sort of persistent chronic infection lingering in immune privledged cells after the acute phase is over is likely to be right in some way, shape, or form, IMO.  As I understand it (I'm not an immunologist but can generally keep up) much of the pathways involved in innate immunity, which will constantly be trying to go after the virus that managed to avoid clearance through adaptive immunity, funnels down to persistent inflammation.  My sister, who is otherwise generally healthy, has an underlying thyroid condition, and she's a managing long-hauler.  Doesn't surprise me a bit. For hepatitis C, mentioned in the article, a lot of these pathways are starting to be understood at a molecular level.


Where is the flu?


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> I withhold judgement. My Mama, she grew up in Appalachia in the late 30's/early 40's.  Pentecostal church.  You want to talk about fear mongering? She's told me about it. The traveling serpent dude would come every so often.  Towards Easter preacher would go out and talk to the white heat guy and he'd come in like a skunk and speak in tongues.  Before funerals, white heat Daddy would beat you back at home if you didn't kiss the corpse.  Much deeper and darker than the soft flesh redneck paradise I grew up in.  You a Lucinda Williams fan?  Seems to fit.
> 
> Man running through the grass outside
> Says he wants to take up serpents
> ...


Dude, I posted video of the rattlesnake pastor last year. The pastor got bit so many times he died.  I dabbled in the Pentecostal movement for about a year. My foster adopted mom made a deal with me if I got baptized when I was 8 as a Mormon.  The deal was a Bob's Big Boy Combo meal after church if I got dunked. I said, "ok."  Here is picture to prove I'm not story telling like Espola thinks.



Foster care did their job and I will always be appreciative of a roof over my head, food and clothes.  However, it was super scary to be all on your own with no one to help at 18.  I turned to Christ, I won't lie.  I got baptized two more times (( I know what your thinking, why baptized four times, right?  Long story and if your interested, I can share why 4 times)).  My friend in high school called me weak for having to turn to God.  On a side note, that friend turned to Christ 5 years ago after a near death experience   I started reading the bible and started church hopping.  Every church was after me bro and they all wanted me to join their church.  I settled in a crazy and at times fun church and at other times I felt like I was in a cult and if I left I would go to hell.  Like soccer, church is a business and both use scare tactics if you dare try to leave.  My dd was at one club where they said if we tried to leave we will be blacklisted and black balled for being club hoppers and besides, no one wants a dad around asking questions.  I hear in some churches they just move the minister to another church.


----------



## MARsSPEED (Jul 29, 2021)

And watch the numbers explode because of Vaxxed testing positive. This will cause shutdown #2. I just don't understand how I took a vaccination so this could end just to watch our people be manipulated again. There is no rhyme or reason to any of this. The un-vaxxed are even going to be less likely to get the shot now. Meanwhile, the rest of us are punished. I can't wrap my head around it anymore. The new Head of CDC has already been caught twisting data multiple times, most recently with kids. I trusted the old head of CDC more than I trust her. She is just another Political Hack.

"Anyone who has been potentially exposed to the virus should get tested, the C.D.C. now says. Previous guidance recommended testing only for fully vaccinated people who were symptomatic.

In addition to revising its mask guidance on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also quietly updated its testing recommendations for people who are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus.

The agency now advises that vaccinated people be tested for the virus if they come into contact with someone with Covid-19, even if they have no symptoms. Previously, the health agency had said that fully vaccinated people did not need to be tested after exposure to the virus unless they were experiencing symptoms.

“Our updated guidance recommends vaccinated people get tested upon exposure regardless of symptoms,” Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, the agency’s director, said in an email to The New York Times. “Testing is widely available.”"


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)

MARsSPEED said:


> And watch the numbers explode because of Vaxxed testing positive. This will cause shutdown #2. I just don't understand how I took a vaccination so this could end just to watch our people be manipulated again. There is no rhyme or reason to any of this. The un-vaxxed are even going to be less likely to get the shot now. Meanwhile, the rest of us are punished. I can't wrap my head around it anymore. The new Head of CDC has already been caught twisting data multiple times, most recently with kids. I trusted the old head of CDC more than I trust her. She is just another Political Hack.
> 
> "Anyone who has been potentially exposed to the virus should get tested, the C.D.C. now says. Previous guidance recommended testing only for fully vaccinated people who were symptomatic.
> 
> ...


Why on earth get tested if you are vaxxed?

Give them an inch and they are taking the mile.

Enough of this crap.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)

Time to stop being sheep and to stand up against the various restriction in place and more importantly future restrictions they envision. 

No to mandatory vaxxes
No to vaxx passports
No to maks

Etc. 

It is amazing how so many people just go along with this crap.


----------



## espola (Jul 29, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)

Question of the day:

"As for everyone wearing masks, whether vaccinated or not, that's just crazy talk.  *Either the vaccine works or it doesn't.  If it does, we shouldn't have to wear masks.  If it doesn't, why the push to vaccinate people?*"


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 29, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> And for R0 4, unvaxxed granny is at IFR 0.27.  R0 for delta might be between 5-8.  So that's an IFR of 0.34-0.54 (Dad4-if I follow the math it should be a simple linear relationship between R0 and IFR; if you think I'm off let me know).  Let's say the Grannies and Grandpa's out there are 80% vaxxed, and the vaxx is  95% efficacious versus mortality.  That's still 0.085-0.135 IFR.  As we get closer to school starting, vaxx rate is flat, delta is flexing it's muscles a bit, that's what's driving this.  Remember, everybody else is paying a penalty to try and drive down the effective IFR for the susceptible segment of the population.  If he were still with us, Milton Friedman would be doing an old man dribble in his tidy whities.


Ro4 at 65+44 years old??  Hell I'd say Milton got his money'$ worth at 109 years old.  Bestimate Ro 2.5 is .09 for granny.  What granny needs at 65+ is the same as everyone else.  Good portion controlled meals 6 times a day, sleep 8 hrs a day, healthy weight, daily outdoor exercise, family and friends time.  But what they need most is "freedom to choose".  That is Milton Freidman.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 29, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11168


The climate alarmist said that Icebergs are melting at an alarming rate.  Would've been smooth sailing for the Titanic......Sankspola.


----------



## espola (Jul 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Question of the day:
> 
> "As for everyone wearing masks, whether vaccinated or not, that's just crazy talk.  *Either the vaccine works or it doesn't.  If it does, we shouldn't have to wear masks.  If it doesn't, why the push to vaccinate people?*"


I have asked you this before -- do you know how any vaccine works?


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)

espola said:


> I have asked you this before -- do you know how any vaccine works?


The sun rose today...

And the troll is active per usual.


----------



## espola (Jul 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The sun rose today...
> 
> And the troll is active per usual.


Looks like a "no".


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 29, 2021)

espola said:


> I have asked you this before -- do you know how any vaccine works?


Corporate Welfare Programs.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

espola said:


> Looks like a "no".


Cheater and liar


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 29, 2021)

The political analysis on this I think is probably spot on....they've tried to drag their feet on the origins of COVID for a while....their ability to do that (particularly in light of restrictions 3.0 coming out now) is diminishing (they were probably hoping it would be over and people would just forget about it)....they'll need a scapegoat (no one thinks Congress is going to step up and take responsibility for approving the budgets and failing in their oversight)....now that Trump is out they no longer need Fauci....Fauci is the most likely scapegoat, probably in the form of retirement plus thanks for his long years of service and getting is through the worst of it.










						Stansberry Research | World-Class Financial Research
					

We provide actionable investment recommendations and research for individuals self-managing their portfolios.




					americanconsequences.com


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

This T hater, Michael Rapaport just went off on Dr. F.  He is not happy for now being called a super spreader after obeying and trusting the jabs.  I told him I was called a drunk driver so dont feel so bad.  Dude is going off on Tik Tok right now.  Go check it out.  My fair minded and good hearted liberal and Independent pals are starting to see the light and I like that.  The sooner some of you wake the hell up the sooner we can start all over.  You like living among the liars and cheaters?  No more cheaters, how does that sound?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 29, 2021)

The outlines of what Biden's federal vaccine mandate looks like are being leaked out in rumors.  Can' verify any of it, but if true, it's pretty smart.   The rumors are that it's not going to take the shape of an order that all federal employees must be vaccinated by x date of lose their jobs.  Rather, it puts them under a whole lot of restrictions if they don't: they must wear masks (well, that's already a given in DC which today announced a mask mandate but it would apply to any geographical location even without those without a mask mandate), they must socially distance (so no meetings), no visitors, no travel (so much for cushy govt meetings), and twice weekly testing.  There are a few stumbling blocks.  For example, it's not really possible for the military or DEA to do it's job socially distanced.  The other is that non-field, non-public facing office personnel in DC have been working from home (like the US copyright office, library of congress, the general administration)...so they might just use it as an excuse to get out of working in person incentivizing them not to get the vaccine unless there's some form of order to return to work....but would you do that when DC just said cases are now substantial there???


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 29, 2021)

Doh....the majority of people in Los Angeles and DC are fully vaxxed.  In the US as a whole, 56% of those eligible are fully vaxxed.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1420842879300378634


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 29, 2021)

espola said:


> Looks like a "no".


You are conversing with an all or nothing, no in between, no gray area only black and white type. Those type can’t fathom percentages, trends or democracy. They want their daddy back.


----------



## espola (Jul 29, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You are conversing with an all or nothing, no in between, no gray area only black and white type. Those type can’t fathom percentages, trends or democracy. They want their daddy back.


I have been willing to discuss vaccines and how they work with anyone, but it seems some people's only interest in vaccines is how to spell it.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

espola said:


> I have been willing to discuss vaccines and how they work with anyone, but it seems some people's only interest in vaccines is how to spell it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 29, 2021)

espola said:


> I have been willing to discuss vaccines and how they work with anyone, but it seems some people's only interest in vaccines is how to spell it.


IFR Ro4 .00001 for ages 0-19 pre-vax.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 29, 2021)

Breaking: LAUSD has announced it in addition to masks will require weekly testing of all students and staff, regardless of vaccination status.  Since there is a delay in testing results/incubation, this will mean students will need to be quarantined in the event of exposure to a positive test, though I haven't seen the guidance yet of how long and if there's any difference in vaccinated/unvaccinated students (my guess would be no)


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> IFR Ro4 .00001 for ages 0-19 pre-vax.


Can you ask Espola what ingredients/human body parts is in the the J&J J?  These scientist love to say fetus.  They are in for a rude awaking.  Most men I've helped with the guilt of paying for abortion will make them even more upset if they find out they were harvested and sold or chopped up into little pieces to use for vaccines.  He ignores me directly but speaks to others about me.  Weirdo and liar and one big cheater of everyone's life but his.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Breaking: LAUSD has announced it in addition to masks will require weekly testing of all students and staff, regardless of vaccination status.  Since there is a delay in testing results/incubation, this will mean students will need to be quarantined in the event of exposure to a positive test, though I haven't seen the guidance yet of how long and if there's any difference in vaccinated/unvaccinated students (my guess would be no)


This is the other shoe....CDC is saying the vaccinated should get tested if they've been exposed even if asymptomatic.  There go the office reopenings people.  Given that, at least in LAUSD, expect at the minimum school disruptions should case levels rise and kids start testing positive in the classroom.









						CDC rolls out new COVID-19 testing guidance for fully vaccinated
					

The CDC previously said vaccinated individuals who are asymptomatic did not need to get tested if exposed to someone with COVID-19.




					www.king5.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Breaking: LAUSD has announced it in addition to masks will require weekly testing of all students and staff, regardless of vaccination status.  Since there is a delay in testing results/incubation, this will mean students will need to be quarantined in the event of exposure to a positive test, though I haven't seen the guidance yet of how long and if there's any difference in vaccinated/unvaccinated students (my guess would be no)


Time to sue the government for ignoring the Science.  Their own Science.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Breaking: LAUSD has announced it in addition to masks will require weekly testing of all students and staff, regardless of vaccination status.  Since there is a delay in testing results/incubation, this will mean students will need to be quarantined in the event of exposure to a positive test, though I haven't seen the guidance yet of how long and if there's any difference in vaccinated/unvaccinated students (my guess would be no)


My buddy the AC Guy found a solution Grace.  First off, dude is making bank so he can pull this off.  He and a few neighbors from the town are 100% hiring a teacher that lives up the street to be to be home school teacher.  This is up in LA County and they saw this coming.  They have friends on the inside.  I'm sorry to hear about this.  I will wear my mask to make everyone happy.  I hope you all understand why I was a no.  It's deeply personal and painful to think what these scientist were up to in Wuhan.  Bat and human baby part all mixed up as a shot.  Yikes.  I knew these guys were up to no good.  Again, your body my choice is evil.  My body my choice is better.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is the other shoe....CDC is saying the vaccinated should get tested if they've been exposed even if asymptomatic.  There go the office reopenings people.  Given that, at least in LAUSD, expect at the minimum school disruptions should case levels rise and kids start testing positive in the classroom.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Why wouldn't the kids test positive?  The body is not getting rid of those dead nucleotides.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 29, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> Can you ask Espola what ingredients/human body parts is in the the J&J J?  These scientist love to say fetus.  They are in for a rude awaking.  Most men I've helped with the guilt of paying for abortion will make them even more upset if they find out they were harvested and sold or chopped up into little pieces to use for vaccines.  He ignores me directly but speaks to others about me.  Weirdo and liar and one big cheater of everyone's life but his.


Lol! Don't worry about Fauc-spola.  Just have fun with his self annointed-ness.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 29, 2021)

As I repeatedly pointed out, it was never just going to be "masks".  The masks themselves have a lot of downstream impacts like making Cuomo's plans to reopen offices in NY more difficult.  But with the new CDC guidance and the LAUSD policy, we are already moving beyond just masks.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Why wouldn't the kids test positive?  The body is not getting rid of those dead nucleotides.


No smiles again at school.  Year #2.  No laughing or talking at school.  I would have optioned for the online school Brudahh.  Surf all day and learn from mother earth outside.  These people are crazy and not making any sense.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As I repeatedly pointed out, it was never just going to be "masks".  The masks themselves have a lot of downstream impacts like making Cuomo's plans to reopen offices in NY more difficult.  But with the new CDC guidance and the LAUSD policy, we are already moving beyond just masks.


Some say in a war cheating and lying are ok.  I fight with my words and if my words hurt your sorry ass, oh well.  Come and get me   I will hug you as you come to my house.  I'll make a deal with strike force commander.  I will stay home and wear my mask until all this is cleared up.  I won't be around anyone but my family.  I will wear a mask to grocery store.  I will not go out for entertainment.  My only ask is if I can have my beach time early in the morning.  This is what I thought it was.  Stay safe everyone.  I love everyone who wants truth & juctice.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 29, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> No smiles again at school.  Year #2.  No laughing or talking at school.  I would have optioned for the online school Brudahh.  Surf all day and learn from mother earth outside.  These people are crazy and not making any sense.


Well, since kids in LAUSD are bound to be exposed, and since even after the current wave we will likely see additional waves such as winter, it's almost a guarantee now that some kids in LAUSD will be remote for periods of time as cases rise and students are forced to test (the only thing that avoids this is if vaccinated students were treated differently and allowed to remain present in the classroom until there's a positive test but I can't imagine LAUSD would allow that given where the other shoes are dropping).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 29, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> No smiles again at school.  Year #2.  No laughing or talking at school.  I would have optioned for the online school Brudahh.  Surf all day and learn from mother earth outside.  These people are crazy and not making any sense.


The schools can't justify their existence with online and the* bond holders need to get paid.*  That's what is driving on campus.  Especially at the University level with room and board.  Another freakin' $cam.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As I repeatedly pointed out, it was never just going to be "masks".  The masks themselves have a lot of downstream impacts like making Cuomo's plans to reopen offices in NY more difficult.  But with the new CDC guidance and the LAUSD policy, we are already moving beyond just masks.


What a waste of time and resources to test people every week.

Bob you there?

Yeah.

I have a great idea.

What is that?

We should start regularly testing people.

What about the ones already vaxxed?

We definitely need to test them.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> What a waste of time and resources to test people every week.
> 
> Bob you there?
> 
> ...


What test will they use now.  I heard Klause and Bill bought a testing company.  PCR is no more.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)

It is like Groundhog Day. 

The idiots in charge want to repeat variations of the bad policy they inflicted on kids last year. 

72 million kids in the US. 350 deaths in this age group. That stat alone should end this "safety theater".


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> It is like Groundhog Day.
> 
> The idiots in charge want to repeat variations of the bad policy they inflicted on kids last year.
> 
> 72 million kids in the US. 350 deaths in this age group. That stat alone should end this "safety theater".


Well Hound, they hate kids and they hate the elderly.  These are the most selfish people on the planet.  This is what we had all along.  I tried to warn everyone on here.  I came here to help out.  I will say I'm shocked with how hard hearted some people are and how scared some men are.  I think some people know they sold out their souls and snitched on people, all for political reasons and now have a big fat egg on their face.  Sell outs for the normal life.  Ya well, no one will have the good normal life unless your at the very very top of the rich man's game of cheaters.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)

Not surprising to those of us who look at the data.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 29, 2021)

In case one needs more proof the the majority of the press carries water for the left. 

Compare and contrast.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> In case one needs more proof the the majority of the press carries water for the left.
> 
> Compare and contrast.
> 
> View attachment 11178


You ooze desperation.


----------



## espola (Jul 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 11177











						Current rules and recommendations
					

Here you will find a summary of the advice and recommendations that are in effect at the moment because of Covid-19. In the summary, we have selected the advice and recommendations that affect you as an individual.




					www.krisinformation.se


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 29, 2021)

espola said:


> Current rules and recommendations
> 
> 
> Here you will find a summary of the advice and recommendations that are in effect at the moment because of Covid-19. In the summary, we have selected the advice and recommendations that affect you as an individual.
> ...


Uncle Cheater!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 29, 2021)

They can't have it both ways.  Either the vaccines are a massive failure in being able to keep symptomatic illness away (as opposed to hospitalizations/death for which its clear the vaccine works) in which case why are you pushing it on the young and healthy, or they work (in which case why all these restrictions).  









						CDC mask decision followed stunning findings from Cape Cod beach outbreak
					

The CDC's mask decision followed stunning findings from a Cape Cod beach outbreak. The viral load of vaccinated beachgoers changed what we know about the delta variant.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## espola (Jul 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They can't have it both ways.  Either the vaccines are a massive failure in being able to keep symptomatic illness away (as opposed to hospitalizations/death for which its clear the vaccine works) in which case why are you pushing it on the young and healthy, or they work (in which case why all these restrictions).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Do you know how vaccines work?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 29, 2021)

Meanwhile, the U.S., after praising Israel's vaccination work, is now discouraging travel there. Do exactly as they do...but it's too dangerous to travel there! Ha, got it!

At the same time, Sweden is going on two weeks of zero COVID deaths despite a mere 37% vaccination rate and the lowest mask compliance on the continent. Think maybe the situation is less cartoonish than the CDC would have us believe?

Tom Woods


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 29, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 11175
> 
> View attachment 11176


I usually consider tweets like this as political internet meme and not worth looking at.  Exception in this case.  The link below is a different take on  the attendant consequences of the high Indian serum Ab levels.  Bottom line: three estimates suggest an Indian mortality of ~4 million from this past spring.



			https://cgdev.org/sites/default/files/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic.pdf


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Jul 29, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> They can't have it both ways.  Either the vaccines are a massive failure in being able to keep symptomatic illness away (as opposed to hospitalizations/death for which its clear the vaccine works) in which case why are you pushing it on the young and healthy, or they work (in which case why all these restrictions).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think you are cognizant enough to appreciate that there is no they, ultimately, there is just us, imperfect as that might be.

I see it this way.  The primary goal of the vaccines is to save lives directly, by offsetting morbidity associated with infection. A secondary goal is to save lives indirectly, by making as big a dent in community transmission as possible by reducing infection through a combination of sanitizing immunity and acquired immunity.  

The data that the CDC is supposed to release tomorrow, from what I've seen of the slides floating around online, shows three main things. Nothing really unexpected but I expect a continuing public relation disaster. First, delta is very infectious.  The range that's been floating around is R0 5-8.  It's probably at the high end of that.  The messaging will be "infectious as chickenpox".  It's important to realize that maintaining sanitizing immunity levels of neutralizing antibodies (ie any infecting virus particle is simply preventing from binding its receptor) to that sort of virus is really challenging.  Second, the data will show that, despite this, the vaccines still provide really good efficacy to susceptible people. Efficiencies still in the mid-upper 80%.  In the real world, that's a good vaccine.  The third thing is the bad news, which again is not necessarily a surprise for anyone paying attention. Given the titer of delta, vaxxed/infected people can (and the key here is whether the data is all vaxxed people vs "breakthrough infection" people) appear transmissible as non-vaxxed people.  These are issues there a bio-stat person needs to look at and undoubtably are.  But on that secondary criterion for a vaccine delta may simply be too much.  For reasons i have outlined previously, i hope the guardrails stay on long enough for there to be a pediatric vaccine.  Now that the FDA wants a larger size for clincial trials (reasonable) that will be delayed; late fall maybe. At that point, however, we will have had the luxury (with Iz paying the penalty) of allowing people to make their decisions.  We should then let CoV-2 burn to ground/equilibrium in this country as quickly as possible.  In some parts of the country it is probably already doing that.

Bottom line, you may get your wish.  Although we are talking about re-implenting passive measures now, if the vaccines can't reduce the R0 of delta those guardrails may come off sooner rather than later.  No masks, no shutdowns.  If you aren't directly affected, you might not notice. Others will.


----------



## espola (Jul 29, 2021)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 30, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11180


“FREEDUMB! MAGA!”


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “FREEDUMB! MAGA!”


"CHEATER! JAIL!"


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11180




The Cheater's cheat during election.  The liars lie about PCR and the flu.  Before they cheat & lie, the killer's kill babies after 3 months and use baby lungs, hearts and other "tissues" to make the vaccine you want us to take and lie or hide what's inside the jab.  The true fact is this is NOT a vaccine. You picked the Big Three to go down to hell with.  Great job Espola and Husker and all those WHO support your efforts.  Cheating, lying and killing goes good with the three amigos.  Enjoy company you two and EOTL.  The *T*hree *E*vil *D*udes or *TED* talk!!!


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

Go Teddy!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 30, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> I think you are cognizant enough to appreciate that there is no they, ultimately, there is just us, imperfect as that might be.
> 
> I see it this way.  The primary goal of the vaccines is to save lives directly, by offsetting morbidity associated with infection. A secondary goal is to save lives indirectly, by making as big a dent in community transmission as possible by reducing infection through a combination of sanitizing immunity and acquired immunity.
> 
> ...


Reasoned position. I appreciate that. Where I disagree is the pediatric vaccine: a) the risk to children is negligible, b) if there is a substantial reduction in transmission protection (the cdc data may not be accounting for data out of the us and Israel showing a more substantial reduction over time though a number as low as 40% seems to have now been ruled out) vaccinating children will not have as much of a societal impact as we’d like and c) it’s yet another movement of the goalposts which started with 2 weeks and which at this point at least in Los Angeles is most directly punishing the children themselves. 

The other problem is the blue areas will try the “guardrails” again (once again punishing the children first for now 2 years of their lives) before recognizing failure.

Ps there is a they…the health bureaucrats and blue politicians.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Reasoned position. I appreciate that. Where I disagree is the pediatric vaccine: a) the risk to children is negligible, b) if there is a substantial reduction in transmission protection (the cdc data may not be accounting for data out of the us and Israel showing a more substantial reduction over time though a number as low as 40% seems to have now been ruled out) vaccinating children will not have as much of a societal impact as we’d like and c) it’s yet another movement of the goalposts which started with 2 weeks and which at this point at least in Los Angeles is most directly punishing the children themselves.
> 
> The other problem is the blue areas will try the “guardrails” again (once again punishing the children first for now 2 years of their lives) before recognizing failure.
> 
> Ps there is a they…the health bureaucrats and blue politicians.


I like how you write.  I could see you as a really good mediator.  Their so nice as they try to help the two sides find common ground or scare the shit out of one side they better take the deal or they will lose in courts or worse, the whole world.  I personally struggle with BS fluff and milk toast writing and this is a lot more then we all thought.  Light or Darkness Grace.  Truth and Justice for all or Lying and cheating for the 1% or the very very rich families who sit above all the Nations and look down on all of us.  The choice is everyone's to make.  Everyone will see that God is real and is all about the second chance. No  more excuses.  The choice will be clear and everyone will see everyone's decision.  No more hiding behind lying and cheating with a few back stapes to make it to the top.  The truth is coming!!!!  I've been waiting for this for over 54 years Grace.  The cool thing is no more control.  Freedom for all.  Think for a minute what it would be like to be able to do and go anywhere you want and not worry about paying your bills because all basic life needs will be handled by all of us?  If we get the assholes who cheat out, then we will ALL help each with the basic needs.  Everyone left who wants to participate will do so because they want to and this place will be amazing Grace, I promise.  Hold the line and buckle up because this is just getting started.  God wins!!!!!


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 30, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> I think you are cognizant enough to appreciate that there is no they, ultimately, there is just us, imperfect as that might be.
> 
> I see it this way.  The primary goal of the vaccines is to save lives directly, by offsetting morbidity associated with infection. A secondary goal is to save lives indirectly, by making as big a dent in community transmission as possible by reducing infection through a combination of sanitizing immunity and acquired immunity.
> 
> ...


But what you stated above has always been the case.  The difference is that we are hyping cases while the CDC numbers reflect historical trends for upper respiratory diseases in the absence of NPI's and economic shutdowns.  And then there is Sweden.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 30, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> View attachment 11190


*Meanwhile, the lunatics are panicked because of this chart -- yes, this chart:*


Did you realize that was the extent of what we're facing? That little bit of nothingness at the end of the chart there?


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 30, 2021)

Disney just mandated the vaccine for any employee on site and employees that are not on site must be vaccinated before they return (which is unclear when they'll open up the office....lots of LA based companies are pushing back those dates due to concerns about rising cases and employee mask mandate concerns).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Disney just mandated the vaccine for any employee on site and employees that are not on site must be vaccinated before they return (which is unclear when they'll open up the office....lots of LA based companies are pushing back those dates due to concerns about rising cases and employee mask mandate concerns).


See chart above


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Disney just mandated the vaccine for any employee on site and employees that are not on site must be vaccinated before they return (which is unclear when they'll open up the office....lots of LA based companies are pushing back those dates due to concerns about rising cases and employee mask mandate concerns).











						Employers Can (Mostly) Require Vaccines For Workers Returning To The Office
					

Guidance from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission says employers can legally require workers to get a COVID-19 vaccine before returning to the office. But workers can claim exceptions.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Employers Can (Mostly) Require Vaccines For Workers Returning To The Office
> 
> 
> Guidance from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission says employers can legally require workers to get a COVID-19 vaccine before returning to the office. But workers can claim exceptions.
> ...


The issue isn't whether the employer can require you to vaccinate.  The situation posited is if you must work on site the employer says you must take the vaccine, or if you are remote, the employer wants people back in the office and requires them to come back vaccinated or lose their job.  The issue isn't the mandate....the issue is the liability.  Because the vaccine is still emergency use authorized, insurance won't cover any damages.  I'm not aware of Congress or the state of California adopting a liability shield for employers (they did for the pharma company and administers) and given its EU and the employer themselves is not requiring the vaccine to be physically admined on site workers comp may not cover it.  So the issue to date with employers not requiring it is that because of the EU authorization its not considered part of regular protective medical care, and by forcing employees to take it, the employer could be found liable (and not covered by insurance or workers comp) if the employee suffers any side effects for injury.

What's changed is that in the Biden news conference he signaled that the EU labels might now start getting removed for at least one vaccine in the next couple weeks (probably Pfizer since they are beasts at reg approvals) which clears the way not only for a federal mandate for its employees but also makes it easier for employers (since in many states the claims might then shift to coverage for workers comp).

BTW, when the EU label gets removed for 12-18, expect school mandates too, both public and private, for that category.


----------



## espola (Jul 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The issue isn't whether the employer can require you to vaccinate.  The situation posited is if you must work on site the employer says you must take the vaccine, or if you are remote, the employer wants people back in the office and requires them to come back vaccinated or lose their job.  The issue isn't the mandate....the issue is the liability.  Because the vaccine is still emergency use authorized, insurance won't cover any damages.  I'm not aware of Congress or the state of California adopting a liability shield for employers (they did for the pharma company and administers) and given its EU and the employer themselves is not requiring the vaccine to be physically admined on site workers comp may not cover it.  So the issue to date with employers not requiring it is that because of the EU authorization its not considered part of regular protective medical care, and by forcing employees to take it, the employer could be found liable (and not covered by insurance or workers comp) if the employee suffers any side effects for injury.
> 
> What's changed is that in the Biden news conference he signaled that the EU labels might now start getting removed for at least one vaccine in the next couple weeks (probably Pfizer since they are beasts at reg approvals) which clears the way not only for a federal mandate for its employees but also makes it easier for employers (since in many states the claims might then shift to coverage for workers comp).
> 
> BTW, when the EU label gets removed for 12-18, expect school mandates too, both public and private, for that category.


Does a little yellow caution light come on in your brain when you start making things up?


----------



## watfly (Jul 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Breaking: LAUSD has announced it in addition to masks will require weekly testing of all students and staff, regardless of vaccination status.  Since there is a delay in testing results/incubation, this will mean students will need to be quarantined in the event of exposure to a positive test, though I haven't seen the guidance yet of how long and if there's any difference in vaccinated/unvaccinated students (my guess would be no)


Nothing short of child abuse.  I can't imagine the brain stain you will give these kids getting tested every week and waiting for the results.  The unwarranted fear that they will instill in the children is disturbing and will have long term impacts on some kids.  WTF is wrong with these idiots at LAUSD?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> Nothing short of child abuse.  I can't imagine the brain stain you will give these kids getting tested every week and waiting for the results.  The unwarranted fear that they will instill in the children is disturbing and will have long term impacts on some kids.  WTF is wrong with these idiots at LAUSD?


We did air raid and nuclear attack drills in elementary school. The idea of imminent thermonuclear attack and that the desk above you is the last line of defense, even on young children, isn’t exactly settling . . . but we got through it.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> We did air raid and nuclear attack drills in elementary school. The idea of imminent thermonuclear attack and that the desk above you is the last line of defense, even on young children, isn’t exactly settling . . . but we got through it.


Hmmm…explains a lot about the boomers actually.


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 30, 2021)

espola said:


> Does a little yellow caution light come on in your brain when you start making things up?


“Oh Magoo, my dear chap, you’ve done it again!”


----------



## espola (Jul 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> Nothing short of child abuse.  I can't imagine the brain stain you will give these kids getting tested every week and waiting for the results.  The unwarranted fear that they will instill in the children is disturbing and will have long term impacts on some kids.  WTF is wrong with these idiots at LAUSD?


I can't tell if that is sarcasm or just ignorance.


----------



## espola (Jul 30, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> We did air raid and nuclear attack drills in elementary school. The idea of imminent thermonuclear attack and that the desk above you is the last line of defense, even on young children, isn’t exactly settling . . . but we got through it.


We never did duck and cover drills (although we saw the CD turtle cartoons on TV) since were living out in the country.  Only later in my life did I find out about the secret missile and radar sites that were not that far away.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

My first to last video, I promise this time.  I did not agree with all the winners that were picked but I thought some were funny as heck.  I'm leaving for good because Husker, Espola and EOTL are here to only lie and support cheaters who kill kids.  These monsters will be gone soon.  Once they leave, I will be more than happy to come back.  Really sick men who treat females like poop. 

Swampie awards.  I give biggest evil monster award to Espola.  Super disappointed in him.  I thought he would be happy about the change but he's not.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

Get ready for these losers last stand.  The vaccine mandate.  Seriously, all the promises and lies & bribes, lotto tickets and free shit was bullshit.  I will NEVER take the jab filled with baby parts.  I hope ALL of you respect my reasons.  This is evil and not right.  Wake the F up people.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

"Are you for mandating a vaccine on a federal level?" Baier asked.
Doc:  "That's something that I think the administration is looking into. It's something that I think we are looking to see approval of from the vaccine," Walensky replied.   Vaccine mandates currently in place are strictly on the local level.  ((Is this coming to a town soon near you?  What is she talking about?))

Baier asked what Walensky would say to the swath of the American people that believe they should have full control of what happens to their body and what they inject themselves with, whether for religious, personal or other reasons.

Doc: "I completely understand the pushback,"  ((I bet you do))


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

Husker, EOTL and Espola together in the old days.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

Time to run out of here and seek shelter.  My _____________ from the "a" holes are back.  This time their threating me to STFU.  I think their losing big time.  Also, I just ran into an old pal at grocery store.  He told me one of our old pals from college days just got in a fight with a guy over the Vax vs No Vax.  He got his jabs and now wants people like the dude he punched and me to step up and do the right thing or get punched.  The anger in these little lizards are insane.  They loved to control us but that control is slipping away.  These people can't be human.  Who laughs and makes fun of kids wearing a mask for two years and laugh about kids not being born and killed instead so their lungs and little hearts and tongue can be used for vaccines.  They use it to spike things up.  These are not humans, no way.  Humans dont this.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

Good bye socal soccer forum.  Crush was right.  He told me to move on and just let God handle Husker, EOTL and Espola.  Why give your pearls to pigs.  I know I helped a few dads here and that makes me happy.  Love you guys.  I gave a voice to the voiceless and I'm proud of that.  I told Crush I was going back one last time to try and knock some sense into the three amigos but these boys are ruthless and cold hearted and support cheating at all cost as long as they win.  They dont care if kids wear a mask forever.  No end in sight for these swamp lizards.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

Bonus video that made me laugh.  One thing we ALL should agree on is this JB is not the JB we knew before.  When night falls I will put my last music video.


----------



## Ellejustus (Jul 30, 2021)

Actually, this is the last the video.  Peace out!!


----------



## LASTMAN14 (Jul 30, 2021)

Ellejustus said:


> One thing about you and me Lastman, we are 100% opposite.  Thanks for not calling me a moron this time.  I understand people like you but people like you have no idea how to relate to people like me.  You told me three years ago that you knew my pals in this sport, right?  I came at the abuse a different way then the "logical" way.  I'm different, remember that.  I told the dads and the Doc at the time ((he vanished like a fart in the wind and never answered my questions)) that they will wish they never lied to me or my dd and all the other stuff.  Sex and lying games when females are around is not healthy for girls bro.


I know your different. But, try taking a moment to think about what you write. And your still talking about your dilemmas that happened years ago. And now I have no idea . Please stick to one handle so I know which one to block. Thanks.


----------



## crush (Jul 31, 2021)

LASTMAN14 said:


> I know your different. But, try taking a moment to think about what you write. And your still talking about your dilemmas that happened years ago. And now I have no idea .* Please stick to one handle so I know which one to block*. Thanks.


Crush is back bro.  He's my fav and everyone who appreciates my willingness to put it all out there want the Crush version of me back.  You should see the PMs I get now Lastman.  I would say three years ago the PM mail I got was 9 hate and 1 nice.  Today, it's the opposite.  Amazing times we live in. To be blunt with you, if the CDC can hop around and do the flip and do the flop everyday, well then I can change to a new or old handle when I feel like it.  I will ALWAYS let Espola, Messy, Husker, EOTL and Lastman know my handle so you can block me.  Funny thing, you are not doing a good job of ignoring me.  Neither is Husker or Espola.  Espola cheats and talk about me through others.  Happy Saturday


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> “Oh Magoo, my dear chap, you’ve done it again!”


That's just his jaundice acting up again.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 31, 2021)

COVID Charts Quiz


----------



## crush (Jul 31, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> That's just his jaundice acting up again.







Espola and few others are lobbying Dom as I write this to have me banned for life....lol  

"Flip Flop"
"Flip flop they were doing the bop or flop."  Oh yeah!!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 31, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> We did air raid and nuclear attack drills in elementary school. The idea of imminent thermonuclear attack and that the desk above you is the last line of defense, even on young children, isn’t exactly settling . . . but we got through it.




June 7th, 2021

Perhaps you've noticed that in recent days there's been a hysterical drive to make it appear that hospitalizations among children aged 12 to 17 are on some kind of unique rise (with the not particularly subtle subtext that the vaccination of people in this age group is suddenly very urgent).

I am sure that without even looking into the details, you knew this was nonsense.

*We have too much experience with hysterical claims like these not to smell a rat.*

And you were right.

One of my friends, who helped design my COVID charts quiz, debunked it. I am sharing the debunking, complete with charts, with you.

Here goes:

"The latest CDC MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report) study released today is being used by major media outlets to suggest COVID hospitalizations are rising in 12-17 year old children -- except they aren't. The CDC's own data contradicts this. The CDC cherry-picked dates in their study to push a narrative.

"First, let's look at the time they cut off their study: April 24th. Based on the graph below, you do see increased hospitalization rates in 12-17 year olds from March to April 24th:










Coincidentally, April 24th was also when hospitalizations peaked and declined for these age groups. Why did the CDC end their study right at this point, I wonder?











"'Rising hospitalizations' also misses very important context - hospitalizations were rising in _all_ age groups around this time frame in the spring -- even the most-vaccinated cohort (> 65) -- and at faster rates. Yet they use this study to justify why teen vaccinations are needed."

(TW note: In case you can't see the key in the graph below, the orange line on the top is 65 and over, the blue line is the overall number, and that dashed line at the bottom that barely registers at all is the terrible apocalypse of hospitalizations among the 12-17 age group that is supposed to make their vaccinations urgent.)










"Something in this MMWR study that is worth mentioning, though: almost HALF (172 out of 376) of 'COVID' hospitalizations in this age group were likely there for something other than COVID -- further supporting the claim that child COVID hospitalization numbers are inflated.

"Additionally, of the 172 children admitted to the hospital, but not for COVID, over 44% were there for psychiatric care. This seems like a pretty alarming number, but we'd need to see what the baseline is for psychiatric admissions of adolescents.

"It's becoming increasingly obvious the CDC is not an unbiased, agenda-free scientific organization. Just a month ago it was found they let teachers unions influence school reopening guidance. Their reputation rightfully continues to quickly deteriorate."

Although at this point I expect every word out of these lying liars' mouths to be a lie, even I find myself breathless at the sheer audacity of it all, that they get away with making easily debunked claims time and again, and (for the most part) get away with it.

Bits and pieces of their stupid narrative are starting to fall away, though. Fauci's star was on the rise for a long time. But from his perch there was nowhere to go but down. And that has begun.


----------



## crush (Jul 31, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> ​
> June 7th, 2021
> 
> Perhaps you've noticed that in recent days there's been a hysterical drive to make it appear that hospitalizations among children aged 12 to 17 are on some kind of unique rise (with the not particularly subtle subtext that the vaccination of people in this age group is suddenly very urgent).
> ...


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 31, 2021)

Here we go, courtesy of the great Ian Miller (@ianmSC on Twitter).

Let's start with California and Texas. Remember when Gavin Newsom, governor of California, described the decision to drop the Texas mask mandate as "absolutely reckless," and then continued with his own crazy policies of closing even outdoor dining and then had similar or worse results than Texas for seven weeks? I'm sure this was all over the news, right?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 31, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 11199




This one involves heavily masked Hungary against sparsely masked Sweden. Shouldn't these numbers be reversed?










As usual, no clear pro-Fauci story emerges from the charts -- as it darn well should if all the craziness and sacrifice had been genuinely necessary.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Jul 31, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11180





View in browser



On ABC's This Week yesterday, Dr. Fauci said we could get "close" to normal by _next_ Mother's Day, but that there were "some conditions to that" (e.g., the overwhelming majority of people getting vaccinated).

In state after state, life has returned to something close to normal, and if I show you the graphs you can't tell which states are which.

And yet Fauci still talks like this, and some people still listen.

If you're waiting for next Mother's Day to go back to normal, you're beyond hope.

I've been saying for a while that what we need is a quiz: here, everyone, try to guess on this graph which of these Midwestern states lifted their restrictions at the beginning of February.

Or: without any dates printed on the graph, can you tell me where Thanksgiving (which was supposed to be followed by a massive surge) is on this graph of Midwestern states?

Or: one of these two lines represents hospitalizations in the 25 strictest states, and the other represents hospitalizations in the 25 least strict states. Can you tell me which is which?

Or: where on this chart for such-and-such European country do you thinks masks started being widely used?

Nobody will get the answers right, because none of this did any good and the charts reflect that.

Well, I'll be launching that quiz this week. It's interactive, so you can click on your choice and the system will tell you if you're right or wrong.

If you can't clearly see a difference in case after case after case, can we start admitting that it's all been pointless?

Please watch your inbox. The link will be inside one of these emails this week (though it may not be obvious from the subject line).

Meanwhile, it's as if our alleged public-health experts haven't been observing any of this at all. Megan Ranney, a hysteric, issued this warning on April 14:










By now I'm sure you don't even need me to give you the answer. First it was the college football national championship, then the Super Bowl, and then that Texas Rangers game. The numbers fell after every single one of those.

Did that make them stop and think? Don't make me laugh.

Now back to Megan Ranney and her prediction of doom from nearly a month ago.

You'll never guess. The opposite happened, and in fact cases are down about 43 percent since:


----------



## crush (Jul 31, 2021)

Look at the pals talk it up as we all suffer.  Amazing how some had it better than the rest of us.  

"Then I told them if they all got vaccinated they could take their mask off."


----------



## crush (Jul 31, 2021)

Thanks for nothing.  I will admit every single one of these politicians had me fooled at one time or another.  I will admit I too got brainwashed during 9-11.  I have seen that time just about every day for the last three years for some odd reason and now I really know why.  Wake up folks, the dam is going to break.  My pals will not force me to get jabbed because they respect my background and they all tell me dont take it.  I'm sure Husker and Espola would love to pin me down and raffle off the lucky winner to put the jab in my arm.  Some of you fathers make me ill just thinking who would do it.  It's not too late to run and I mean run to the light and stay in the light.  Confess and eat healthy and try and stop drinking alcohol.  If you support cheating, lying, blackmail, retaliation, black balled, more bribes, cash for favors, kick backs, more cheating with murder then dont change.   The choice is yours.  No church, no bible, no 10%, no control, no religion and no control.  Freedom for ALL!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Jul 31, 2021)

Hmmmm....as I recall Americans went livid when Trump threatened to deploy the military to quell the riots.....but in Australia its apparently o.k. to keep people in their homes.









						Covid in Sydney: Military deployed to help enforce lockdown
					

Authorities say the deployment is needed, but critics argue it will "pick on" marginalised groups.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## crush (Jul 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Hmmmm....as I recall Americans went livid when Trump threatened to deploy the military to quell the riots.....but in Australia its apparently o.k. to keep people in their homes.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My wife has a very good friend from Perth.  She was crying last night because their hunting down folks who say, "no to jab."  She is very very religious and helps kids all day who dont have a home.  She is super, super healthy but the control freaks are not having it.  No 1st, 2nd or 3rd amendments for those over there.  You get what you vote for   I saw a video of the strike force take two guys to the mat and give them the shot.  I thought it was staged but after my wife's chat with Channin, it's real & horrible.  Can you imagine the strike force going up to guys like Teddy?  Omega & Alpha and Chi strains are coming in the next set of waves, 2022 & 2023.  This wont end until we want to end.  I'm afraid some men would gladly take a booster every 6 months so they can go back to the normal life, which some call the mask less life.   If you want Husker, EOTL and Espola to be the boss of you, then sit back and take more jabs so you can have the normal life.  The choice is getting clearer and clearer.  I hope folks can see what I have been seeing for a long time.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Hmmmm....as I recall Americans went livid when Trump threatened to deploy the military to quell the riots.....but in Australia its apparently o.k. to keep people in their homes.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Ummm, not even a close correlation. Keep trying though, the court is throughly amused, Sidney.


----------



## crush (Jul 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Hmmmm....as I recall Americans went livid when Trump threatened to deploy the military to quell the riots.....but in Australia its apparently o.k. to keep people in their homes.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


*Soldiers will join police* in virus hotspots to ensure people are *following the rules*, which include a 10km (6.2 miles) travel limit.
State Police Minister David Elliott said it would help *because a small minority of Sydneysiders thought "the rules didn't apply to them".*
Information provided by health officials indicates the virus is mainly spreading through permitted movement.


----------



## Desert Hound (Jul 31, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Hmmmm....as I recall Americans went livid when Trump threatened to deploy the military to quell the riots.....but in Australia its apparently o.k. to keep people in their homes.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That is @dad4  preferred solution.


----------



## crush (Jul 31, 2021)

*French police clash with anti-virus pass protesters in Paris*
*The marches drew some 204,000 people around the country

Nurse: *Hager Ameur, a 37-year-old nurse, said she resigned from her job, accusing the government of using a form of "blackmail."

"I think that we mustn’t be told what to do," she told The Associated Press, adding that French medical workers during the first wave of COVID-19 were quite mistreated. "And now, suddenly we are told that if we don’t get vaccinated it is our fault that people are contaminated. I think it is sickening."


----------



## watfly (Jul 31, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> We did air raid and nuclear attack drills in elementary school. The idea of imminent thermonuclear attack and that the desk above you is the last line of defense, even on young children, isn’t exactly settling . . . but we got through it.


I don't recall kids having to stay under their desks all day long, everyday.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 31, 2021)

watfly said:


> I don't recall kids having to stay under their desks all day long, everyday.


Quit whining. Americans have become a bunch of sissy whiners.


----------



## watfly (Jul 31, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Quit whining. Americans have become a bunch of sissy whiners.


Nut up, and stop putting the burden on our kids.  The sissies are the adults that want children to protect them.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jul 31, 2021)

watfly said:


> Nut up, and stop putting the burden on our kids.  The sissies are the adults that want children to protect them.


Quit whining.


----------



## watfly (Jul 31, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Quit whining.


Nope.  As long as adults that can't handle their own business keep f'ing with kids I will continue to call it out.  Particularly when it comes to teacher unions that couldn't care less about children.  Of course that's what unions are for...adults that can't handle their own business.


----------



## espola (Jul 31, 2021)

watfly said:


> Nope.  As long as adults that can't handle their own business keep f'ing with kids I will continue to call it out.  Particularly when it comes to teacher unions that couldn't care less about children.  Of course that's what unions are for...adults that can't handle their own business.


You seem to have skipped a few steps ahead there.  What are you rambling about now?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 1, 2021)

espola said:


> You seem to have skipped a few steps ahead there.  What are you rambling about now?


Just a chance to bash workers right’s, human right’s. Seems the corporate propaganda machine covers many areas to put profit over the environment and people. We should all trust big corporate’s idea of how things are and should be . . .


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> Nope.  As long as adults that can't handle their own business keep f'ing with kids I will continue to call it out.  Particularly when it comes to teacher unions that couldn't care less about children.  Of course that's what unions are for...adults that can't handle their own business.


If only people had to simply fend for themselves, if only the good self-promoters were able to thrive and the quiet hard workers were being taken better advantage of!


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> Nope.  *As long as adults that can't handle their own business keep f'ing with kids I will continue to call it out. * Particularly when it comes to teacher unions that couldn't care less about children.  Of course that's what unions are for...adults that can't handle their own business.


Now you get me Wat Fly.  These little creeps will have their day bro.  Look at how Husker ((Messy) and Espoal ((EOTL)) treat the kids.  They actually have zero kids playing the game.  100% no DD and they both treat woman like shit.  I said this three years ago.  This country was asleep and so many had their heads in the sand.  Good hearted dads working to pay for their life style.  I get it!  When we ALL see the truth about the what the monsters have been doing to the kids, we will ALL come together to help the kids and each other.  Mark my words.  This will never happen again.


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> *If only people had to simply fend for themselves*


Hey, what about the kids?  Joey Bribes got you brainwashed dude.  You and Espola are drinking way too much.  Latest quote from the one you love:

*"You a you you got the vaccinated?  Are you a are you I mean, ok?  Are you seem no it works or you know or or or or or mom and dad or or or or or the neighbor or when you go to church or no I I I I I really mean it, there are trusted interlocutors.  Think of the people if if you're kid wanted to find out whether or not there were there was a man on the moon or or whatever you know something or you know whether those aliens are here or not. You know who are the people they talk to be on the kids who love talking about it?" Joey*

"Are there people in the Republican Party who think we’re sucking the blood out of kids?"
If you get the jab, no more mask
I wiped my butt
I love you son
I really love you dd


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

*Disneyland requires non-union employees to get vaccinated, starts discussions with unions*


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Quit whining. Americans have become a bunch of sissy whiners.


No, people like you ruin kids lives because you and Uncle Espola don't care for the kids.  Two millstones are now being made for both of you.  How big is your neck Husker?  Espola?  I will take up donations and will have the millstones ready for you.  Dont mess with the kids Messy and EOTL.


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

I think everyone should listen to this song now.  Now you see were controlled by the monsters.  Pray folks.


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

@ Husker ((Messy)) and Espola ((EOTL)).  I found a video of you two working together back in the day.   I'm not sure which one is Husker and Espola.  You two let me know who Bobo is and who is lil Devil.


----------



## watfly (Aug 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> If only people had to simply fend for themselves, if only the good self-promoters were able to thrive and the quiet hard workers were being taken better advantage of!


Fair assessment if we're talking 100 years ago.  These days there are so many regulations protecting workers, unions for the most part are unnecessary.  Hell in California even OSHA isn't sufficient, we have to have CAL-OSHA.

Unions of today are less interested in helping their constituents and more interested in being political power brokers.  If your union is different that's great, but the major teacher's unions are disgraceful.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Hmmmm....as I recall Americans went livid when Trump threatened to deploy the military to quell the riots.....but in Australia its apparently o.k. to keep people in their homes.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


IFR of .003 driving the shutdown.  Sounds familiar.


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

Let's see what old Doc Collin's is up to.  No need to look online to see what else is out there from Doctors we all trust.    

*NIH Director Collins: Masks on children under 12 'is a really smart thing to do'*

National Institute of Heal Director Dr. Francis Collins said?????  ((Ok Frances, let's here what you got's to say.  I'm all ears and I promise not to get my information online.  I will ask a few questions and I will have a response sometimes))

-delta variant poses a new threat to the population compared to previous forms of COVID-19 ((Oh really))
-Collins stressed the *highly contagious* nature of the *delta* variant, while acknowledging that *vaccines are generally* *effective* against it. ((I don;t like, GENERALLY EFFECTIVE. Why "generally only?"))
-"This is really a *different virus* than last year, and everything we *learned about COVID a year ago,* you got to sort of hit the *reset button* on now how we need to react to it," Collins said. ((Global Reset?  I'm so confused))
-Children *under 12,* however, are so far *not eligible* to receive the vaccines.  ((Let's keep that way Frances))
-*Kids* are* generally* not known to get *severely ill *from COVID-19, and out of *503,544 deaths* currently reported by the CDC, just* 296 were kids* below the *age of 12, less than .06%.*  Still, *Collins recommends that children under 12 wear masks* when they* start school in the fall,* to reduce spread between students or transmission to their families.  ((Next after kids die, he will say the Omega strainis worse and to hit reset again.  Reset is the big lie))
-right now, wearing masks if you're under 12 and can't be vaccinated when you're in school is a really smart thing to do," he said. ((Ok Doc))
-Collins said he is aware that this is "tiresome" ((you have no idea Doc)) and that children and parents "are sick of it," ((you think?)) but that if this could save* "even a few"* lives ((and ruin the lives of the rest who aren;t making $$$$ off this scam)) "then it seems like the right thing to do." ((I think you will go down in history as wrong Doc)).  He added that he believes it is "a sacrifice worth making" ((oh really, sacrifice my rights so my friends can go back to normal and others make a buck?)) in order to make sure that the pandemic does not get worse and so the country can avoid any *further lockdowns. *((Lockdowns is the new norm every winter.  Next year Alpha & Omega will be the 5th and 6th wave)).


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

Hahahahahahahaha!!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Quit whining. Americans have become a bunch of sissy whiners.


Agree.  I remember a time when people would just hit the ignore button to keep themselves from becoming the whiners that they still are.  Kinda like you did when your girl lost the election.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Just a chance to bash workers right’s, human right’s. Seems the corporate propaganda machine covers many areas to put profit over the environment and people. We should all trust big corporate’s idea of how things are and should be . . .





[B]Hüsker Dü said:


> *Quit whining.*





[B]Hüsker Dü said:


> *Quit whining. Americans have become a bunch of sissy whiners.*


There you have it folks.  The Whiney little bitch himself


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 1, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> If only people had to simply fend for themselves, if only the good self-promoters were able to thrive and the quiet hard workers were being taken better advantage of!


Sounds like they forgot to chill your Rose'


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 1, 2021)

crush said:


> *Disneyland requires non-union employees to get vaccinated, starts discussions with unions*


If Disney was really serious they would just shutdown entirely.


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> If Disney was really serious they would just shutdown entirely.


Look at Lollapalooza 2021 yesterday Bruddah.  Place is packed.  
In accordance with City of Chicago requirements, full COVID-19 vaccination or negative COVID-19 test results will be required to attend Lollapalooza 2021.
For patrons who are not fully vaccinated, a negative COVID-19 test result must be obtained* within 72 hours (3 days) of attending Lollapalooza.* If you are planning on attending the festival for 4 days you will need to get tested again and bring new proof of a negative COVID-19 test.


----------



## crush (Aug 1, 2021)

Kids have to wear a mask though at school.......


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 2, 2021)

No thank you.









						BREAKING: Leaked CDC Slides Call for Universal Masks, Reinstating Mitigation Strategies, Vaccine Mandates for HCP to Stop Delta Variant | Human Events
					

According to leaked slides, the Delta variant is more transmissible than Ebola, Smallpox and the 1918 Spanish Flu - thus, the CDC is calling...




					humanevents.com


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> No thank you.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Talk about a Hail Mary.  I told you all before Delta had  a name it was next.  Look up Camp Delta Nova man.  No free goodies anymore Hound.  These evil monsters are laughing in our faces.  I'm shocked the most educated among us sign up so fast for the jabs.  It's going to be all my fault because I decided to eat healthy, drink lot's of water, eat no meat and lose 45 pounds.  I saw Mike Pompeo speak the other day and dude lost a lot of weight. Even the Lion Mr. T lost weight.  They seem so confident too and that is scaring the little rats on both side of the political Isle, especiall those who cheated during the election that the MILITARY was doing a sting OP on it.  Some got bought, bribed, blackmailed by Mr. build back better.  Aanyone with a brain of honesty and a heart of gold knows we ALL got played, unless your selling pills of blood thinner.  My pal's wife makes over $250,000 a year pushing pills to different sales reps in big phama.   They the sales reps then go in to bring lunch and entertainment tickets to the Docs.  These reps sit there for 15 minutes to talk to the Doc as he stuffs his face with free food.  Incentives for the Doc to prescribe pills that the rep is promoting. Not all pills are bad either.  However, what has my blood boiling is the incentives to push the BT.  It's #1 drug sold in the sales room.  No joke.  Look it up online Nova and see what you come up with.


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 2, 2021)

crush said:


> Talk about a Hail Mary.  I told you all before Delta had  a name it was next.  Look up Camp Delta Nova man.  No free goodies anymore Hound.  These evil monsters are laughing in our faces.  I'm shocked the most educated among us sign up so fast for the jabs.  It's going to be all my fault because I decided to eat healthy, drink lot's of water, eat no meat and lose 45 pounds.  I saw Mike Pompeo speak the other day and dude lost a lot of weight. Even the Lion Mr. T lost weight.  They seem so confident too and that is scaring the little rats on both side of the political Isle, especiall those who cheated during the election that the MILITARY was doing a sting OP on it.  Some got bought, bribed, blackmailed by Mr. build back better.  Aanyone with a brain of honesty and a heart of gold knows we ALL got played, unless your selling pills of blood thinner.  My pal's wife makes over $250,000 a year pushing pills to different sales reps in big phama.   They the sales reps then go in to bring lunch and entertainment tickets to the Docs.  These reps sit there for 15 minutes to talk to the Doc as he stuffs his face with free food.  Incentives for the Doc to prescribe pills that the rep is promoting. Not all pills are bad either.  However, what has my blood boiling is the incentives to push the BT.  It's #1 drug sold in the sales room.  No joke.  Look it up online Nova and see what you come up with.


Canʻt stop the flu every year.  Why would we buy off on the “variant” vax with an EUA?  Lol!


----------



## watfly (Aug 2, 2021)

What do you guys think about the USA Olympic podium masks?  They look very ominous and remind me of something a Stormtrooper might wear.   So what if they're ugly because I figured they had some advanced filtering technology and were to protect that athletes.  Turns out they are just for show...designed by Nike and aren't even medical grade masks.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> What do you guys think about the USA Olympic podium masks?  They look very ominous and remind me of something a Stormtrooper might wear.   So what if they're ugly because I figured they had some advanced filtering technology and were to protect that athletes.  Turns out they are just for show...designed by Nike and aren't even medical grade masks.


Oh Canada!


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> What do you guys think about the USA Olympic podium masks?  They look very ominous and remind me of something a Stormtrooper might wear.   So what if they're ugly because I figured they had some advanced filtering technology and were to protect that athletes.  Turns out they are just for show...designed by Nike and aren't even medical grade masks.


I dont have TV.  Secretary of Defense is wearing the mask with a shield.  I bought more mask and a shield to lay low bro.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 2, 2021)

watfly said:


> What do you guys think about the USA Olympic podium masks?


Stupid safety theater. As soon as the anthem is over while standing on the podium they all took them off. What was the point?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Stupid safety theater. As soon as the anthem is over while standing on the podium they all took them off. What was the point?


Even Biden's people are admitting cloth masks are all safety theater. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422261427210006541


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Stupid safety theater. As soon as the anthem is over while standing on the podium they all took them off. What was the point?


I heard were going from Maritime Law to Common Law soon!!! Some Countries ((just like big football conferences)) need to pair up and help each other.  I keep telling everyone change is on it's way and the tables will be turned.  Bali/Australia will be one with US/Canada.  A Reset is coming Hound. The Klause guy and 13 families had the controls of the great rest but the good guys took it away from them ((Hillary)).  Oh man, just wait until you find out WTF she was up to.  Bill was just acting like a typical man but she was pure evil.  It makes sense now but boy she fooled many.  



Grace T. said:


> Even Biden's people are admitting cloth masks are all safety theater.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422261427210006541


I heard from a reliable grape vine that their working on a big time mandate on the non-Vaxed.  They have to find blame somewhere and why not blame me for losing 45 pounds and being in the best health ever.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 2, 2021)

Mask mandate for San Francisco.  86% of San Francisco is partially vaxxed, 71% fully vaxxed.  But it's about all those unvaxxed people ruining for everyone else.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Even Biden's people are admitting cloth masks are all safety theater.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422261427210006541


Note he talks about N95. Those are actually designed to filter. Even the surgical masks are not effective. Air comes in and out of the gaps. As the designers state...they are not designed to be used to prevent VIRAL transmission.


----------



## espola (Aug 2, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Even Biden's people are admitting cloth masks are all safety theater.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422261427210006541


Which one of Biden's people is that?


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 2, 2021)

Examples of espola's contribution to this site. 

Hey the Sun is going through low sunspot activity. 

Espola: Which Sun? Link? 

The admin said covid cases are down

Espola: Which admin? Link?

We shouldn't teach CRT in schools. 

Espola: What is CRT? Link?

Most people over 65 have been vaccinated and are safe? 

Espola: Who said 65+ have been vaccinated? What is safe? Link?

Take the above outline and you basically have the total contribution of espola to any topic.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Examples of espola's contribution to this site.
> 
> Hey the Sun is going through low sunspot activity.
> 
> ...


Which Espola are you talking about?  The conservative one or the Marxist one?


----------



## espola (Aug 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Examples of espola's contribution to this site.
> 
> Hey the Sun is going through low sunspot activity.
> 
> ...


Liar.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 2, 2021)

espola said:


> Which one of Biden's people is that?


The ones asking "Which one of Biden's people is that?"



dad4 said:


> *Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all.  They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*




.


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

espola said:


> Which one of Biden's people is that?


Uncle Espola, please share with the class the theory of ingredients for Jab #1.  Jab#2 please. Once you share with us idiots, please share what the next booster mix will be filled with.  Next wave or variant?


espola said:


> Liar.


Hey now, that's my tagline.  You stick with "Coo Coo" and "nonsense" and stop stealing my words.  I know when we will all be safe.  The day you say sorry for making fun of this and all that is happening to us because of this and a lot of that.  I'm willing to sip on a cold brew with you and hatch things up.  My son is working hard at SDSU and all on his own.  I'm so proud of him.  Everyone who capitulates and goes for the light ((truth)) will win.  How was sleep last night?  I hear for some the spirits are knocking.  Talk to me bro.  Stop ignoring me when you know I'm in your head all day & night.  Come on man, give up and come on over.  I will hug you and love you.  I have no weapons except the truth and love.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 2, 2021)

Note the headline that sounds scary.

Then note this paragraph in the article.

"Padilla told The Hill that *none of those who tested positive* at San Francisco General *required hospitalization*. Most of the infections *caused mild to moderate symptoms*, according to the Times."

Shouldn't the headline be something more along the lines of "Despite hundreds of staffers testing positive for covid, none required hospitalization and most causes only caused mild to moderate symptoms".

Instead they go with the fear mongering headline.









						Hundreds of staffers at two San Francisco hospitals test positive for COVID-19
					

At least 233 staffers at a pair of San Francisco hospitals have tested positive for COVID-19, the majority of whom were fully vaccinated but became infected with the delta variant.Fifty-five c…




					thehill.com


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Note the headline that sounds scary.
> 
> Then note this paragraph in the article.
> 
> ...



*Graham test positive for Covid after being vaccinated ((Headline News everywhere)) *

"I started having *flu-like symptoms* Saturday night and went to the doctor this morning. I feel like I *have a sinus infection* and at present time I have mild symptoms. I will be *quarantining for ten days.  *((At least he didnt blame it on others.  Is this what you get for two jabs?))

"I am very *glad I was vaccinated* because *without vaccination* I am certain I would not feel as well as I do now," he continued. "My symptoms would be *far worse.*" ((Seriously, how the hell does he know how he would feel?  Espoal, I found another Rhino for you to vote for)) 

The Heat is on these dudes Hound.  Look at CNN.  It's all in Red font and crazy ass headlines.  Fox is bad as well.  My wife's friend Ana is loosing her shit right now too.  It's my fault she says.  We got on a three way and she begged us to get our jabs so we can get back to normal.  Normal btw is wearing a mask with a shield and getting boosters every 6-12 months, depending on the jab you took.


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

RIP sir. The headline on Fox: * Dad sends heartbreaking text message before death*: 
This is called click bait.  I clicked and I see this pic. I'm not hear to tell you if you should take the jabs or not.  I will say the most important thing you can do is eat healthy, tell the truth, stop cheating and stop lying.  Cut meat out asap.  If you can't or won't, then try and eat meat every other day.  Stop drinking with the spirits every night.  Work on the inside fellas.


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

espola said:


> Liar.


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

The control freaks who cheat just told Wendy and all the others in AZ to basically F off and show us what you got.  3 PA counties say they dont have to listen to anybody and they are saying F off too.  Here we go folks.  Dominion dudes won't release their private keys to the voting system that they say they own and now Rogers is telling folks to lock them up.


----------



## espola (Aug 2, 2021)




----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

Jack from the AZ BOS just told Wendy and the other Senators to F off basically.  Jack say's the election services AZ bought were professional and nothing to see and super honest.  I feel that if the state senators want to do a audit, they should be able to.  No?  If IRS send me audit I cant say, "Buzz off.  I hired Mr. Taxman and that's all I need to do."  Sherriff knocking with a warrant and I close the door and tell them to F off?  Bad move, Moo.  The Dominion clowns also told them to F off because their stuff is private and not public.  Buckle up folks, this is going to be handed over to the real Pros soon.  You can't blow this off unless?


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

I listen to this song all the time.  It calms me.  Prepare ye soul for the Light.  The rats are running scared!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

Bruddah or anyone else who wants to play, "Guess em."   Who said, "Critics are men who watch a battle from a high place then come down and shoot all the survivors."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 2, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11224


Whereʻs the infection pre-fully vaxxed line and  infection pre-not fully vaxxed line?


----------



## crush (Aug 2, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Whereʻs the infection pre-fully vaxxed line and  infection pre-not fully vaxxed line?


Junk Science Bruddah.  This is really about the kids believe it or not.  These are smoke screens to hold off the truth.  The final acts of the rats who didnt make a deal or did they?  Is this a movie with bad actors and good actors?  I hear when this is all over and done with we will all be blow away.  Dark to Light bro is not easy for those who love darkness because their deeds are still evil.  I say stop it now and jump over to the light.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 2, 2021)

crush said:


> Junk Science Bruddah.  This is really about the kids believe it or not.  These are smoke screens to hold off the truth.  The final acts of the rats who didnt make a deal or did they?  Is this a movie with bad actors and good actors?  I hear when this is all over and done with we will all be blow away.  Dark to Light bro is not easy for those who love darkness because their deeds are still evil.  I say stop it now and jump over to the light.


Easy to see the holes in Linespola's thinking.


----------



## espola (Aug 2, 2021)

espola said:


> Which one of Biden's people is that?


Still no answer?  I would be surprised if he is a science guy since he made the same mistake some posters here have made about being to smell things through masks.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 2, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11224


*Age distribution of cases*
COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in San Diego County through June 14, 2021.

AgePositive casesHospitalizedDeathsPercent of county population0-915,475
235
0
13.6%            IFR for Espola's actual zero10-1931,364
254
2
13.4%            IFR of .00004 if we add the 0-19 numbers20-2963,069
824
18
14.3%        .000230-3950,033
1,198
31
13.7%         .000640-4939,892
1,492
108
12.5%           .00250-5937,544
260833512.4%        you get the idea.  Don't follow dumb shit L.A. for school kids60-6924,079
3,193
739
710.4%70-7911,340
2,776
892
6.0%80+8,412
2,891
1,645
3.7%Unknown166
5
0

Source: San Diego County  Get the data


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 3, 2021)

crush said:


> Bruddah or anyone else who wants to play, "Guess em."   Who said, "Critics are men who watch a battle from a high place then come down and shoot all the survivors."


easy.  hemingway.  actually the problem wasn't the critics.  the problems were all hemingway's. In his head, heart and mind. Deep down inside He was just projecting with respect to critics.  lots of critics loved him. In the end he pulled the trigger all by himself, critics didn't matter.  just like dr. gonzo changing the color scheme of his walls in aspen.  GD bats. Safety hazard when you are crossing the desert.  Why are you wasting time on this boring political internet meme shit you spread all over?  Read old man and the sea again or something. find your center.


----------



## espola (Aug 3, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> easy.  hemingway.  actually the problem wasn't the critics.  the problems were all hemingway's. In his head, heart and mind. Deep down inside He was just projecting with respect to critics.  lots of critics loved him. In the end he pulled the trigger all by himself, critics didn't matter.  just like dr. gonzo changing the color scheme of his walls in aspen.  GD bats. Safety hazard when you are crossing the desert.  Why are you wasting time on this boring political internet meme shit you spread all over?  Read old man and the sea again or something. find your center.


They told his wife to lock up the guns, but they didn't tell her to hide the keys.


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> *Why are you wasting time on this boring political internet meme shit you spread all over?*  .


Great Q but odd for someone who has been reading my spread everyday since 2018.  Anyone with "evil" in their avatar supports evil.  I appreciate your honesty for your support of evil.  Two reasons I waste my time at the forum.

1.  Evil Doc lied, cheated and used people for his own evil gratification 5 years ago.  I warned some evil dads that played evil with him and they basically told me to F off and nothing to see here and it would be best to STFU or else.  Well, I came here because this is where some of them hang out and I won't leave until they say sorry to my dd and my family.  I asked lot's of questions and found out who is who and found out the board.  Lot's of dad's would use one account to make fun of me.

2.   To make sure that we ALL help orphanes and stop killing kids and using them for evil.  Check out this deposition with Dr. Stanley.  If your too busy to watch the 20 minute clip, go to the last 1 minute and find out what old Doc really believes.  This guy is Dr. Evil and you will like him based on the name you have in your handle.  They use babies for vaccines asshole and the handicape people.  These people are not Docs, only killers and you and Espola seem find with it.  I think it's evil!!!

*"Religion that God our Father accepts as pure and faultless is this: to look after orphans and widows in their distress and to keep oneself from being polluted by the world."  Paul*









						PROOF! Trial shows that they use ABORTED FETUS & ANIMAL TISSUES to Create Vaccines and Much More!
					

PROOF! Trial shows that they use ABORTED FETUS & ANIMAL TISSUES to Create Vaccines and Much More!  2018 Deposition in which Dr. Plotkin admits to using fetal tissue to create vaccines along with other animal DNA. This deposition also revealed that…




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

espola said:


> They told his wife to lock up the guns, but they didn't tell her to hide the keys.


Liar bro.  I dont own guns and no one told my wife to lock up guns that I don't own.  I use my words only and meme.  Good morning btw.  Are you ready to be honest for once?  Spreading lies about weapons I dont have is BS dude.  Watch the video I put for Evil Goalie to watch.  This Doc Stanley kills babies to make vaccines Espola.  The one quote that has my blood boiling is the part where he says they take babies from orphanages.


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)




----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

So this *Jack*ass BOS dude from AZ was in China in 2019 to make a deal.  This is so easy to figure out.  I do think many of these fools got way over their head when they first started to take a few "gifts for votes."  Blackmail has a short life span and you need to renew the blackmail with more blackmail. For example, you might take a little kickback for all your efforts and you feel justified for the kickback early on.  However, they will kick your ass later and you will be bought like no other.  I heard they take a loved one or staff member and tell the compromised subject that they will throw them in a woodchipper if they dont do as told.  This is serious you guys.....


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Hey, don;t listen to Crush and read his meme.  Listen to Andre









						Mexico: A President Speaking Truths To Big Pharma
					






					www.bitchute.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 3, 2021)

Bob?

Yes...what is up?

Hey cases are rising again around the Bay area.

Ok. And?

Well we are going to institute mask mandates.

Why?

Cases are rising. Didn't you hear me?

What about deaths?

Well not so much. There hasn't been much change in those. But cases are rising?

I think you should focus on deaths?

Nope! We are putting mask mandates in again. They didn't work last time, but it is positive virtue signaling. It lets people know we care.









						7 Bay Area Counties To Reinstate Indoor Mask Mandate After Midnight | The Daily Wire
					






					www.dailywire.com


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Bob?
> 
> Yes...what is up?
> 
> ...


Bob?

Ya....what's up Doc?

Mask up

Why?

Delta is here

ok, thanks for the heads up.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 3, 2021)

Masking kids and closing schools is irrational, unscientific child abuse
					

America’s public-health bureaucrats are insisting on masking kids and granting baseless alibis to teachers unions that would delay or defer schools reopening for another year.




					nypost.com
				




A few key points from the article.

"A study out of the UK released last week proved — once again — what we’ve known for more than a year: Kids transmit the coronavirus at a much lower rate than do adults. Epidemiologist Shamez Ladhani, who led the study, *found that children “aren’t taking [the virus] home and then transferring it to the community. These kids have very little capacity to infect household members*.”

---

"Nevertheless, we Americans* inflicted misery upon our kids*. We took away school, kept them apart from their friends, and needlessly covered their faces. It wasn’t all kids who suffered, though. *Kids in private and parochial schools in urban areas went to school. Kids in public schools in GOP-governed areas also went to school (and even got to play sports, mask-free).

And everything turned out OK: States with open schools didn’t have more child COVID cases and certainly not more hospitalizations or deaths. Schools without mask mandates didn’t have significantly more COVID cases. They simply put kids first. *

But kids *unlucky enough to live in blue cities and states were subjected to the anti-science mania of gentry liberals and the cravenness of political leaders beholden to teachers unions*. "

---

"We have to let kids live again, the way they have all along in saner parts of the country. Anything else is cruelty and, yes, tantamount to science denial."

I guess this must be the MAGAs living in NY who happen to work in eduction right?....

"Over the weekend, *we learned that 40 percent of Big Apple teachers* haven’t received the COVID vaccine."


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "Over the weekend, *we learned that 40 percent of Big Apple teachers* haven’t received the COVID vaccine."


I hear 50% in some places in Socal.  This is grape vine news though from the evil internet.  Nova man and Evil Goalie think Im stupid for getting information outside of Fox and CNN and FB and Twit bird.  JB said a big cyber attack will hit us soon and that weird Republicans think he and others were vampires and evil monsters with kids.  This is what JB said plus our kids should be asking if their was a man on the moon.  That is why I'm on here 24/7.  Can you explain wtf is going with this Jack guy in AZ bro?  Wendy, Kelly and Borrelli are Military, does Jack not understand that?  The Military watched live from Space Force on 11/3.  The next day the truth was presented to the Commander in Chief and on 1//4, 11.4 was enacted.  At least that's what is online.  I take all this information and share it with you guys.........to my dear friends that I love in soccer.  We know Husker & Espola have no kids in the game so we know why their here.  Anyway, that Jackass got some serious balls or he is in deep doo doo with blackmail. Is their any other options with the statement he put out yesterday?  The AZ Senate acts as a court, right?  When they send a Subpoena they mean business.  The people voted for them and they want to do an Audit.  This is not about a recount.  This is only about a forensic audit.  Big difference. They want to inspect the apples, not just count them.  What's the big problem here?  Hiding something?  The cat was guarding the rats and the cat cheated.  However, someone much stronger than a cat was watching the big fat cats cheat and all the little rats go for the grab & go and cheat like hell.  We caught them all they say.

Does a subpoena mean you are in trouble?

A Subpoena is *a court order to come to court and hand things over that are requested*. If you ignore the order, the court will hold you in contempt.* You could go to jail* or face a large fine for ignoring the Subpoena or if this is a Military OP, you can be going to Camp Delta for the rest of your life or worse.  Subpoenas are used in both criminal and civil cases

Give me some AZ talk bro.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Bob?
> 
> Yes...what is up?
> 
> ...


I can answer the deaths question for you.  It comes from hospitalizations.

Around a 46,000 people are hospitalized with covid, doubling every 2-3 weeks.  About 1/4 of those are in ICU.

There are about 90,000 staffed ICU beds in the US overall.  You can’t use all of them for covid; people get sick of other things, too.  When we run out of staffed ICU beds, the quality of care goes down, and the death rate goes up.

Which brings up the question of how many times we can double the number of covid patients in ICU before we start to ration care for everyone.

The deep south is there now.  Some other places are a month or two behind, depending on vax rates.  We just don’t feel like joining them.  Besides, we look stylish in our masks.


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can answer the deaths question for you.  It comes from hospitalizations.
> 
> *Around a 46,000 people are hospitalized with covid, doubling every 2-3 weeks*.  About 1/4 of those are in ICU.
> 
> ...


It's called a fever bro and flu A and B.  My dd went to ER last week and no one was there, I swear.  It was a ghost town.  Stop it, stop it now.  Talk about a broken record with BS math.  Math has been hi jacked by assholes and fools who call themselves scientist.  Did you know that the atheist scientist use babies that are 3 months old and older to add their vaccine mix?  They look for orphans and stupid people who get pregnant and then take their baby away.  That's just out in the open.  How does that make you feel?  Be honest dad of 4 kids.  Seriously, it's time to get everyone on record before their peers and God!  WHO supports killing babies and cutting up their heart, lungs, spline, brain and tongue and then mixing the "tissues" with vaccine and adding other 'animal" tissues to make a spike to it.  I know this is hard on us all but until we face the music collectively, we the people will just sit back and act like nothing to see here.  The fact is, we will ALL see very soon.   Lastly Evil Goalie, I have been very consistent about why I'm here.  Sometimes people have to be told by an emotional orphan and then shown what is going on via movies.  I will close with the love of most will grow cold and most will turn their back on God anyway.  I don;t like that so I'm trying to change the prophecy dad.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can answer the deaths question for you.  It comes from hospitalizations.
> 
> Around a 46,000 people are hospitalized with covid, doubling every 2-3 weeks.  About 1/4 of those are in ICU.
> 
> ...


We know based on looking at the UK and other W Euro countries that (dealt with Delta earlier vs the US ) they actually didn't have an issue with hospital beds and/or deaths. 

IE the data shows that the Delta variant is not the issue that the press and politicians portray it to be.

Their spikes in Delta lasted 4-6 weeks. That was it.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 3, 2021)

Let us take a look at the devastation the delta is causing. Now match the following the the fear being peddled.

Note that Delta came in with a quick rise and fall. Note also that deaths never changed much. 

That is the reality of Delta. The same is becoming apparent here in the US. 

Why people ignore the REAL WORLD data regarding this is beyond me. We don't need masks, restrictions, etc. 

Follow the DATA.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can answer the deaths question for you.  It comes from hospitalizations.
> 
> Around a 46,000 people are hospitalized with covid, doubling every 2-3 weeks.  About 1/4 of those are in ICU.
> 
> ...


No link as usual.  No credibility as usual.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 3, 2021)

And of course here is the US. 

We look to be about at the peak or close. Note the lack of deaths following along. 

So when we hear we need to mask up, lock down, require papers...tell them to screw off. We don't need restrictions. Live free.


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> No link as usual.  No credibility as usual.


Dad is throwing shit to the wall like most of my friends who are 100% wrong.  Look folks, take the jab and be happy but don't force that shit on me, you got it?  I am 100% serious.  I told before this plan came to us that this will be about forcing the jab.  The fact Bill, Bill and Jeffrey were best friends is the 100% reason I stay away.  My wife warned me and I warned everyone on here.  It's about the kids you guys.  My wife is from Guatemala and most of the kids coming over to the USA right now have no parents.  No parents would hand their kid over to these monsters.  The fact is, the kids have no homes.  I'm so fing pissed I had to leave this place for three weeks.  wtf up Espola.  WHO the f cheats like this and robs kids of their innocence and force them to get jabbed and masked up?  I'm not taking it anymore!!!


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 3, 2021)

And here is CA. 

There will be no big or even moderate rise in deaths. Matter of fact deaths are FLAT> 

And yet watch the safety theater start/continue.


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

I'm leaving and going to take a walk and cool off.  These cheaters, liars and killers or at the very least supporters of mass killers of orphans and old people is going to stop.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 3, 2021)

If only public educators believed in public education.






						SF school board, union undercut pandemic hubs — Joanne Jacobs
					






					www.joannejacobs.com
				




"The San Francisco teachers union and at least some school board members pushed back against the hubs even as schools remained shuttered, which left families scrambling for child care and academic support. Tension between city officials and district staff also made collaboration more difficult, the report said.

. . . The report specifically cited resistance from board member Alison Collins as well as from the United Educators of San Francisco, the teachers union. The authors also noted that all current seven school board members were endorsed by the teachers union."

--

“*To some teachers union supporters, the fact that people outside their union were providing in-person services to students, while their own members were not, represented a threat,*” according to the report’s authors, David Phillips, founder of Panorama Advisors, which offers coaching and planning, and Carolyn Gramstorff, founder of s3dx, a school design consulting firm."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

Healthy Places Index


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

Super Carrier 

Fair winds and following seas gentleman


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I can answer the deaths question for you.  It comes from hospitalizations.


97% of deaths had underlying conditions.  So you really can't answer the question.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 3, 2021)

NIH health experts clarifying that no we didn't misread it....they really are recommending that if there are unvaccinated kids in the house, that the household wears masks 24/7 including vaccinated parents.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422576584607899655


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 3, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> NIH health experts clarifying that no we didn't misread it....they really are recommending that if there are unvaccinated kids in the house, that the household wears masks 24/7 including vaccinated parents.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1422576584607899655


If you ever wondered why large segments of the population have zero respect for gov....this is a great example.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 3, 2021)

crush said:


> It's called a fever bro and flu A and B.  My dd went to ER last week and no one was there, I swear.  It was a ghost town.  Stop it, stop it now.  Talk about a broken record with BS math.  Math has been hi jacked by assholes and fools who call themselves scientist.  Did you know that the atheist scientist use babies that are 3 months old and older to add their vaccine mix?  They look for orphans and stupid people who get pregnant and then take their baby away.  That's just out in the open.  How does that make you feel?  Be honest dad of 4 kids.  Seriously, it's time to get everyone on record before their peers and God!  WHO supports killing babies and cutting up their heart, lungs, spline, brain and tongue and then mixing the "tissues" with vaccine and adding other 'animal" tissues to make a spike to it.  I know this is hard on us all but until we face the music collectively, we the people will just sit back and act like nothing to see here.  The fact is, we will ALL see very soon.   Lastly Evil Goalie, I have been very consistent about why I'm here.  Sometimes people have to be told by an emotional orphan and then shown what is going on via movies.  I will close with the love of most will grow cold and most will turn their back on God anyway.  I don;t like that so I'm trying to change the prophecy dad.


You think an empty ER is a sign that the ICU is also empty?

Not really.  The quiet ER just means the hospital doesn't want covid spreading in the waiting room.  So they clear out other space to make it easy to take in patients more quickly.

You've been reading some crazy conspiracy sites on vaccines.  The fetal stem cell lines used to test vaccines are result of 2 abortions, both of which were about 50 years ago.  None of those cells is used as part of the shot.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

There is an allied issue, namely social distancing. Both policies seek to regulate social interactions. This produced the famous Six-Foot rule in closed spaces. The problem is the rule was predicated on the assumption that “the primary vector of pathogen transmission is the large drops ejected from the most vigorous exhalation events, coughing and sneezing” (Martin Z. Bazant and John W. M. Bush, “A Guideline to Limit Indoor Airborne Transmission of COVID-19.” _Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences_ _of the United States of America _2021 Vol. 118 No. 17 e2018995118, p. 1). If the assumption were valid, the Six-Foot rule might be justified. Unfortunately, “there is now overwhelming evidence that indoor airborne transmission associated with relatively small, micron-scale aerosol droplets plays a dominant role in the spread of COVID-19, especially for so-called ‘superspreading events,’ which invariably occur indoors.” Bearing heavily on the transmission process is the kind of ventilation in the room. The authors rely on the concept of “well-mixed spaces” to conclude that generally “one is no safer from airborne pathogens at 60 ft than 6 ft” (2).

Most of the paper is devoted to technical, model-theoretic calculations of safe-spacing. They present two case studies. One is for classrooms. Under reasonable assumptions (including mask wearing), they conclude “school transmission would be rare” (7). *But their analysis “sounds the alarm for elderly homes and long-term care facilities…” (7). The Six-Foot rule fails very quickly, in as little as 3 minutes. It is no wonder that hospitalizations and deaths were so high in these facilities.*

They conclude that the six-Foot rule is inadequate, and they offer “a rational, physically informed alternative for managing life in the time of COVID-19” (11). I can only concur that in social distancing as with SIP policy, rationality was absent. Science was repeatedly invoked, but at least the actions I examined here were not supported by science. The reason for this may have been identified by Lord Acton in the 19th century. “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> easy.  hemingway.  actually the problem wasn't the critics.  the problems were all hemingway's. In his head, heart and mind. Deep down inside He was just projecting with respect to critics.  lots of critics loved him. In the end he pulled the trigger all by himself, critics didn't matter.  just like dr. gonzo changing the color scheme of his walls in aspen.  GD bats. Safety hazard when you are crossing the desert.  Why are you wasting time on this boring political internet meme shit you spread all over?  Read old man and the sea again or something. find your center.


Who said, "There are no atheist in a fox hole?"


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Update on Bad News Headlines.  This is getting bat shit crazy.  Darkness has nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.  Engine is out of gasoline.




Fox New is Bad News Headline:  *Cuomo defiantly declines to resign, denies wrongdoing after bombshell sexual harassment report*



CNN News Bad News Headline:* Gov. Guomo sexually harrassed woman, investigation finds*

Espola & Husker thoughts please on the breaking news.  I just heard this guy tell businesses yesterday not to hire or serve non vaccinated people.  WTF is going on?  Dude has to go.  He also has to answer to the nursing home scandel.  Dude must have been in deep shit with some bad characters.  Play with the devil, die with the devil.  I pray for his soul and all the souls he was harassing, allegedly.  Poor girls


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> If you ever wondered why large segments of the population have zero respect for gov....this is a great example.


A solemn albeit false and unscientific delivery by Director Collins.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You think an empty ER is a sign that the ICU is also empty?
> 
> Not really.  The quiet ER just means the hospital doesn't want covid spreading in the waiting room.  So they clear out other space to make it easy to take in patients more quickly.
> 
> You've been reading some crazy conspiracy sites on vaccines.  The fetal stem cell lines used to test vaccines are result of 2 abortions, both of which were about 50 years ago.  None of those cells is used as part of the shot.





dad4 said:


> Masks reduce the probability of transmission.  That’s all. * They do not come close to eliminating transmission.*


Daddy's mea culpa.


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Bad New Quotes from the young adults among us who took the jab. 

"I *regret *taking the vaccine I feel like I got Covid all over again fuck"  _lovingdoll

"Each time I see some news about Covid 19 vaccine I instantly *regret* taking vaccine." Jerren C

"I *regret* taking the vaccine."  Matt Cullen

"*Regret* taking the Vaccine body aches and shit!" Vee

Guys, I see thousands of these on SM platforms.  It's true and sad.  Some more.....

"I *regret* taking this fucking Vaccine I feel horrible."  Gabriela

*"I regret........."  *

It seems thousands *regret *taking the dam shot.  Another person said she is so mad at herself and is full of regret.  Thought she was getting better but now is out of it and at home sick with Covid.  Plus, her boss is pissed off at her for coming to work without a mask and now everyone is getting sick.  This asshole told everyone needs the jab.  Now everyone is sick.  He can't blame it on the unvaxed because everyone got jabbed and now everyone has fucking regret.  God help us all.  Mulligans are needed big time for everyone on planet earth.  BTW Daddy4, not one of these SM quotes went to ER.  Their only filled with regret and feel like shit.  They have to lay in bed and kick themselves.  Let's all learn from this and never let it happen again.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You think an empty ER is a sign that the ICU is also empty?
> 
> Not really.  The quiet ER just means the hospital doesn't want covid spreading in the waiting room.  So they clear out other space to make it easy to take in patients more quickly.
> 
> You've been reading some crazy conspiracy sites on vaccines.  The fetal stem cell lines used to test vaccines are result of 2 abortions, both of which were about 50 years ago.  None of those cells is used as part of the shot.


Apparently the mad scramble to avoid responsibility continues amongst the gullible and easily frightened.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 3, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> There is an allied issue, namely social distancing. Both policies seek to regulate social interactions. This produced the famous Six-Foot rule in closed spaces. The problem is the rule was predicated on the assumption that “the primary vector of pathogen transmission is the large drops ejected from the most vigorous exhalation events, coughing and sneezing” (Martin Z. Bazant and John W. M. Bush, “A Guideline to Limit Indoor Airborne Transmission of COVID-19.” _Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences_ _of the United States of America _2021 Vol. 118 No. 17 e2018995118, p. 1). If the assumption were valid, the Six-Foot rule might be justified. Unfortunately, “there is now overwhelming evidence that indoor airborne transmission associated with relatively small, micron-scale aerosol droplets plays a dominant role in the spread of COVID-19, especially for so-called ‘superspreading events,’ which invariably occur indoors.” Bearing heavily on the transmission process is the kind of ventilation in the room. The authors rely on the concept of “well-mixed spaces” to conclude that generally “one is no safer from airborne pathogens at 60 ft than 6 ft” (2).
> 
> Most of the paper is devoted to technical, model-theoretic calculations of safe-spacing. They present two case studies. One is for classrooms. Under reasonable assumptions (including mask wearing), they conclude “school transmission would be rare” (7). *But their analysis “sounds the alarm for elderly homes and long-term care facilities…” (7). The Six-Foot rule fails very quickly, in as little as 3 minutes. It is no wonder that hospitalizations and deaths were so high in these facilities.*
> 
> They conclude that the six-Foot rule is inadequate, and they offer “a rational, physically informed alternative for managing life in the time of COVID-19” (11). I can only concur that in social distancing as with SIP policy, rationality was absent. Science was repeatedly invoked, but at least the actions I examined here were not supported by science. The reason for this may have been identified by Lord Acton in the 19th century. “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”


You might want to actually read your article.

“In both examples, the benefit of face masks is immediately apparent,…”

“With a population of individuals wearing face masks, the risk posed by respiratory jets will thus be largely eliminated, while that of the well-mixed ambient will remain.”

”Furthermore, it underscores the need to minimize the sharing of indoor space, maintain adequate, once-through ventilation, and encourage the use of face masks.”

So, wear your mask and avoid indoor spaces, just like BIZ’s article tells you to.


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You might want to actually read your article.
> 
> “In both examples, the benefit of face masks is immediately apparent,…”
> 
> ...


I will wear mask.  What about the kids asshole?


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 3, 2021)

So the D's in NY are going to make you show a covid paper to get into restaurants, etc. An ID. 

Isn't this the same group/party that has told us ID's harken back to Jim Crow? 

By the way in these blue cities, the demographic that is vaxxed the least are blacks and hispanics. 

Interesting.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Apparently the mad scramble to avoid responsibility continues amongst the gullible and easily frightened.


Yes it does.


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Yes it does.


Looks like Andrew is in big doo doo,  No one on his side except Espoal and EOTL.  This just in.  Joe and Hunter think the Gov should resign.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 3, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So the D's in NY are going to make you show a covid paper to get into restaurants, etc. An ID.
> 
> Isn't this the same group/party that has told us ID's harken back to Jim Crow?
> 
> ...


Even when not talking about Blue VS Red, black/hispanics remain the least vaccinated.  It's not a good talking point though and goes against the grain of the narrative that driving force behind the unvaxxed is the orange boogey man.  Makes for better ratings and allows for frothing at the mouth during primetime.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You might want to actually read your article.
> 
> “In both examples, the benefit of face masks is immediately apparent,…”
> 
> ...


 Most of the paper is devoted to technical, model-theoretic calculations of safe-spacing. They present two case studies. One is for classrooms. Under reasonable assumptions (including mask wearing), they conclude* “school transmission would be rare” *(7). *But their analysis “sounds the alarm for elderly homes and long-term care facilities…” (7). The Six-Foot rule fails very quickly, in as little as 3 minutes. It is no wonder that hospitalizations and deaths were so high in these facilities.* 

Mask fail miserably for the elderly and LTC folks who cannot avoid indoor spaces.

I knew you would be hooked by the mask even if I highlighted how mask fail the elderly and LTC facilities.  

Not to mention your mask mea culpa and socialist one size fits all policy bent.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 3, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Even when not talking about Blue VS Red, black/hispanics remain the least vaccinated.  It's not a good talking point though and goes against the grain of the narrative that driving force behind the unvaxxed is the orange boogey man.  Makes for better ratings and allows for frothing at the mouth during primetime.


100% and as someone so eloquently put it, “ Apparently the mad scramble to avoid responsibility continues amongst the gullible and easily frightened.”


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 3, 2021)

Who’s getting the COVID-19 vaccine, who isn’t, and why?
					

City and state officials promise to improve equity in vaccine distribution, but data shows a disparity. WHYY’s Health Desk Help Desk looked closer.




					whyy.org


----------



## what-happened (Aug 3, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Who’s getting the COVID-19 vaccine, who isn’t, and why?
> 
> 
> City and state officials promise to improve equity in vaccine distribution, but data shows a disparity. WHYY’s Health Desk Help Desk looked closer.
> ...


Exactly, in the meantime, those that could help aren't.  Too busy driving other narratives that present better ROI for their political aspirations.  It's a shame and another example of exploitation.  We can set up drive through voting but are unable to provide vaxx assets in these same areas. It's a joke.  Besides, JAN 6 hearings command more ratings.  It's easier for a pundit to sit on their ass in air conditioning and provide commentary than to roll up their sleeve and get to work.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 3, 2021)

crush said:


> I will wear mask.  What about the kids asshole?


What about it?  Make sure he wears pants.  That should cover things.  

They’re recommending multiple layers now.  Have him wear underwear, too.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 3, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> 100% and as someone so eloquently put it, “ Apparently the mad scramble to avoid responsibility continues amongst the gullible and easily frightened.”


It's hot and muggy this time of year in Philly, Atlanta, Chicago....Who want's to go there and solve problems..  It's less work and more comfortable to cower in fear from your home studio.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 3, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Exactly, in the meantime, those that could help aren't.  Too busy driving other narratives that present better ROI for their political aspirations.  It's a shame and another example of exploitation.  We can set up drive through voting but are unable to provide vaxx assets in these same areas. It's a joke.  Besides, JAN 6 hearings command more ratings.  It's easier for a pundit to sit on their ass in air conditioning and provide commentary than to roll up their sleeve and get to work.


“Yes, yes, PLEASE! Anything but January 6th! We can’t walk and chew gum! Can we just ignore what happened on January 6th altogether? Look! Over there! Please?”


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Some people are addicted to fear.  Fear based adrenalin is real and the cycle is vicious and hard to get off.  The life of fear is no life at all.  Fear causes people to cheat, lie and kill to get ahead.  Husker is over 65 and no kids in the game and Espola is 70+ and no kids in the game.   If you include Messy and EOTL, then you have the four headed monster of fear.  Pure evil!!


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 3, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Yes, yes, PLEASE! Anything but January 6th! We can’t walk and chew gum! Can we just ignore what happened on January 6th altogether? Look! Over there! Please?”


No statute of limitations for that inquiry so there is time to focus on effective actions that will have a more immediate impact on the lives of those they allegedly serve.  Then you can have your witch hunt (I’ll be watching with popcorn in hand).


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 3, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No statute of limitations for that inquiry so there is time to focus on effective actions that will have a more immediate impact on the lives of those they allegedly serve.  Then you can have your witch hunt (I’ll be watching with popcorn in hand).


“Witch hunt” how anti-America/trumpian of you. You people make me sick.


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> No statute of limitations for that inquiry so there is time to focus on effective actions that will have a more immediate impact on the lives of those they allegedly serve.  Then you can have your witch hunt (I’ll be watching with popcorn in hand).


Watch this short trailer Kicker from Eye Drop Media.  I laughed so hard.  I have no idea what the truth is either and the trail;er is for entertainment only. However, something is not right, right about now.  I'm just trying to figure things out too.  









						ENJOY THE SHOW (EyeDropMedia)
					

None




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## dad4 (Aug 3, 2021)

crush said:


> Some people are addicted to fear.  Fear based adrenalin is real and the cycle is vicious and hard to get off.  The life of fear is no life at all.  Fear causes people to cheat, lie and kill to get ahead.  Husker is over 65 and no kids in the game and Espola is 70+ and no kids in the game.   If you include Messy and EOTL, then you have the four headed monster of fear.  Pure evil!!


I feel so left out.

Have a great day, Crush.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 3, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Witch hunt” how anti-America/trumpian of you. You people make me sick.


That’s the part you focus on?  OK. I’ll play for a minute. 

If you disagree with the term “witch”?  Ok, pick your adjective then, makes no difference to me. But it is a hunt (by definition of an inquiry).  

But will you answer this?   Do you or don’t you agree that in the immediate term, we the people would be better served if our political leaders would focus on being in their community getting those without access the vaccines?


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I feel so left out.
> 
> Have a great day, Crush.


I see you different then those evil monsters.  I hope you start seeing the truth.  I thought maybe you and Espola were the same but the detectives working with me think your deceived only.  Have a great day Dad


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

Epstein Island regular Nazi Cuomo - Pedo - Satanist
					

Andrew Cuomo apologizes after investigation corroborates sexual harassment allegations against him.. same ignorant nazi hitler cheerleader downvoted dickvanstone who was BeNotSilent and hitlers wanderers clown ...imagine if he had a brain..he woul…




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## espola (Aug 3, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> That’s the part you focus on?  OK. I’ll play for a minute.
> 
> If you disagree with the term “witch”?  Ok, pick your adjective then, makes no difference to me. But it is a hunt (by definition of an inquiry).
> 
> But will you answer this?   Do you or don’t you agree that in the immediate term, we the people would be better served if our political leaders would focus on being in their community getting those without access the vaccines?


Who does not have access to the vaccine?


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

espola said:


> Who does not have access to the vaccine?


Best question from you all week.  I was thinking the same thing.  The rest of the leftovers are critical thinkers and will save this country.  Do you know what will be more valuable then a Bitcoin?  I will 100% never, ever and I mean never take the jab.  Did you see the news today?  Plus that judge on Fox is in hot doo doo with the young men.  Espola, I bet you vote for him too, right?  So far you will now vote for Liz, Lindsey and Adam and the Judge.  I see the kind of crowd you play with.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 3, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> That’s the part you focus on?  OK. I’ll play for a minute.
> 
> If you disagree with the term “witch”?  Ok, pick your adjective then, makes no difference to me. But it is a hunt (by definition of an inquiry).
> 
> But will you answer this?   Do you or don’t you agree that in the immediate term, we the people would be better served if our political leaders would focus on being in their community getting those without access the vaccines?


Sorry if I hurt your feelings but you people are a cancer to a great nation. Fuck off and leave. We can chew gum and scrap insurrectionist scum off at the same time. Now everyone has to do their all to counteract the effects of an administration that belittled Covid efforts and scumbags like you that kissed it’s ass and still do. Did I tell you to fuck off yet? Do so scum.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 3, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Sorry if I hurt your feelings but you people are a cancer to a great nation. Fuck off and leave. We can chew gum and scrap insurrectionist scum off at the same time. Now everyone has to do their all to counteract the effects of an administration that belittled Covid efforts and scumbags like you that kissed it’s ass and still do. Did I tell you to fuck off yet? Do so scum.


You really are consumed by orange dude.  We should be able to do two things at the same time, maybe three, or four.  Or five.  There are 535 members of congress, countless mayors, I could go on but you get the gist.  Yet the heavy hitters in our government are so blinded by partisan rage that they can't devise a strategy for vaccinating those that do not have equal access to vaccines.  It's pathetic.  

Your little tantrum is a great example of how they've fooled you. Political caste for the win, the masses for the loss. You can't even see straight.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 3, 2021)

espola said:


> Who does not have access to the vaccine?


You know, the thing..


----------



## espola (Aug 3, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You really are consumed by orange dude.  We should be able to do two things at the same time, maybe three, or four.  Or five.  There are 535 members of congress, countless mayors, I could go on but you get the gist.  Yet the heavy hitters in our government are so blinded by partisan rage that they can't devise a strategy for vaccinating those that do not have equal access to vaccines.  It's pathetic.
> 
> Your little tantrum is a great example of how they've fooled you. Political caste for the win, the masses for the loss. You can't even see straight.


Who does not have access to the vaccine?


----------



## crush (Aug 3, 2021)

espola said:


> Who does not have access to the vaccine?











						De Blasio Vax Mandate: Time for People to See Shot as "Literally Necessary" for Good Life
					

New York City will mandate patrons show proof of vaccination prior to entering indoor establishments, including restaurants and gyms, Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) announced Tuesday.




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 3, 2021)

crush said:


> Who said, "There are no atheist in a fox hole?"


Been a bit but, from nowhere, the metaphor of the hole appears to be back. Unexpected this.  It makes the answer straightforward however.  A proselytizing badger.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

espola said:


> Who does not have access to the vaccine?


0-11 year olds.  Keep up Alice.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Sorry if I hurt your feelings but you people are a cancer to a great nation. Fuck off and leave. We can chew gum and scrap insurrectionist scum off at the same time. Now everyone has to do their all to counteract the effects of an administration that belittled Covid efforts and scumbags like you that kissed it’s ass and still do. Did I tell you to fuck off yet? Do so scum.


Maybe you can show him how to ignore you.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 3, 2021)

espola said:


> Who does not have access to the vaccine?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 3, 2021)

espola said:


> Who does not have access to the vaccine?


Why do you want to know?


----------



## what-happened (Aug 3, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Why do you want to know?


He knows, he's likes playing kick the can.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 4, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You really are consumed by orange dude.  We should be able to do two things at the same time, maybe three, or four.  Or five.  There are 535 members of congress, countless mayors, I could go on but you get the gist.  Yet the heavy hitters in our government are so blinded by partisan rage that they can't devise a strategy for vaccinating those that do not have equal access to vaccines.  It's pathetic.
> 
> Your little tantrum is a great example of how they've fooled you. Political caste for the win, the masses for the loss. You can't even see straight.


Obviously you are afraid of what the past administration has wrought and want to ignore it. There are multiple reasons why the poor, people of color and the younger generations aren’t vaccinated or are hesitant. Then there is a huge swath of people who admittedly don’t want it due to their political beliefs and those are the people that freak out when any vaccine outreach is suggested. The circular nature of t-party complaints (in this and other matters) stems from little exposure to anything but “alternative facts”. There is a long list of fictional theories that t-party types proclaim as their reason to not vaccinate nor exercise common sense precautions, access not being one of them.


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Obviously you are afraid of what the past administration has wrought and want to ignore it. There are multiple reasons why the poor, people of color and the younger generations aren’t vaccinated or are hesitant. Then there is a huge swath of people who admittedly don’t want it due to their political beliefs and those are the people that freak out when any vaccine outreach is suggested. The circular nature of t-party complaints (in this and other matters) stems from little exposure to anything but “alternative facts”. There is a long list of fictional theories that t-party types proclaim as their reason to not vaccinate nor exercise common sense precautions, access not being one of them.


Misinformation warning!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

Jennifer Aniston admits she has 'lost' some friends who didn't get the COVID vaccine: '*It's a real shame'*

*'There's still a large group of people who are anti-vaxxers or just don't listen to the facts,' the 'Friends' actress said.*  ((Thanks Jen, Husker also let us know about his crazy ass redline.  The dividers of our country is so obvious.  Thanks Espola too for all you have done to bring peace and unity.))  

*"I've just lost a few people in my weekly routine who have refused or did not disclose [whether or not they had been vaccinated], and it was unfortunate," she added.   *

Some friend Jen is to her so called friends.  I will go on the record and say she is not a good friend and her friendships are fake to say the least and I think she's a fraud.  I have a really good Lib pal and he said we can be friends forever. He took two jabs and now he regrets the jabs and said I chose right.  The fact is he has regret and I don't.  I don't want to live in regret. He does his thing and I do my thing.


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

Anyone hear, here about "Sugar Man?"  This guy wrote some really great music.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The circular nature of t-party complaints (in this and other matters) stems from little exposure to anything but “alternative facts”. There is a long list of fictional theories that t-party types proclaim as their reason to not vaccinate nor exercise common sense precautions, access not being one of them.


Hey brainless one. 

The largest group of people not vaxxed are reliable D voters. 

Putting that aside. 

Covid is not particularly dangerous to the vast majority of the population. That is a fact. 

So those not getting it are entirely rationale in their thinking. 

The group at risk? They have been vaxxed at a very high rate. 

What has been the result? 

Deaths have fallen dramatically. 

Stop living in fear. You can stop worry about covid at this point.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

Hey you will see more and more places like NY tell people you have to show people proof of being vaxxed. 

Here you go. Let the revolution begin. Download and fill out.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

So this goes into the bad section.

This is increasingly how our gov works. And it shouldn't be like this.

The congress did not pass the extension.

So what happens? A gov agency just did.

That shouldn't happen.









						The CDC extending the federal eviction moratorium is expected to cover about 90% of renters
					

After pressure from House Democrats and housing advocates, President Joe Biden announced Tuesday that the federal eviction ban will be extended.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Hey you will see more and more places like NY tell people you have to show people proof of being vaxxed.
> 
> Here you go. Let the revolution begin. Download and fill out.
> 
> View attachment 11263


How safe is that, they put "other" for booster #3 and the "other" spike cocktail.  Spike has one job to do.  Please do your own research peeps.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Obviously you are afraid of what the past administration has wrought and want to ignore it. There are multiple reasons why the poor, people of color and the younger generations aren’t vaccinated or are hesitant. Then there is a huge swath of people who admittedly don’t want it due to their political beliefs and those are the people that freak out when any vaccine outreach is suggested. The circular nature of t-party complaints (in this and other matters) stems from little exposure to anything but “alternative facts”. There is a long list of fictional theories that t-party types proclaim as their reason to not vaccinate nor exercise common sense precautions, access not being one of them.


Circle


----------



## what-happened (Aug 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Obviously you are afraid of what the past administration has wrought and want to ignore it. There are multiple reasons why the poor, people of color and the younger generations aren’t vaccinated or are hesitant. Then there is a huge swath of people who admittedly don’t want it due to their political beliefs and those are the people that freak out when any vaccine outreach is suggested. The circular nature of t-party complaints (in this and other matters) stems from little exposure to anything but “alternative facts”. There is a long list of fictional theories that t-party types proclaim as their reason to not vaccinate nor exercise common sense precautions, access not being one of them.


You certainly get the gist of the issues but interpret them in an interesting manner.  It's obvious "t" is your boogey man, it's a free country and your choice to think that way.  I have no idea what you think I'm afraid of, kinda weird actually. And I don't know what you mean by circular t-party complaints.

Do yourself a favor, take a peek at the not vaxxed statistics.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You certainly get the gist of the issues but interpret them in an interesting manner.  It's obvious "t" is your boogey man, it's a free country and your choice to think that way.  I have no idea what you think I'm afraid of, kinda weird actually. And I don't know what you mean by circular t-party complaints.
> 
> Do yourself a favor, take a peek at the not vaxxed statistics.


He lives in a dem propoganda bubble. By that I mean is whenever he comes across an idea or an opinion he doesn't like or understand his default is: racist, t supporter, etc. 

He has a stunning inability to actually have a back and forth with anyone without calling them names. Note his default statements on anyone he disagrees with.


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Hey you will see more and more places like NY tell people you have to show people proof of being vaxxed.
> 
> Here you go. Let the revolution begin. Download and fill out.
> 
> View attachment 11263


That's a federal crime.









						18 U.S. Code § 1017 -  Government seals wrongfully used and instruments wrongfully sealed
					






					www.law.cornell.edu


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> That's a federal crime.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Seems rather open to interpretation since it goes back and forth depending on which party is in power (ie* DOJ opinion*)

But what you are advocating and what the dems are advocating is fishing expeditions.

What you want is the ability to pull taxes to see if you can find a crime. That is not the way we do things. This what authoritarian regimes and banana republics do.

The precedent you want is that political parties can without evidence of a crime go after their political opponents by digging around personal information.

That is not a good thing for this country. That if allowed allows increased partisanship and division.


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Seems rather open to interpretation since it goes back and forth depending on which party is in power (ie* DOJ opinion*)
> 
> But what you are advocating and what the dems are advocating is fishing expeditions.
> 
> ...


What does any of that have to do with your obvious encouragement of crime?


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> What does any of that have to do with your obvious encouragement of crime?


Evade a crime? 

What crime did he commit? 

What the dems want is the ability to dig through personal information to see if they can FIND a crime. 

That is what you are advocating for. 

Kind of sad that people get so partisan that they toss out norms to get what they HOPE will help them out politically.


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Evade a crime?
> 
> What crime did he commit?
> 
> ...


You didn't answer the question.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> You didn't answer the question.


See there is your trolling again. 

You want to see Trumps tax returns so the dems can dig. 

What crime did he commit? Outside of fishing around, what is the legal reason? Trick question. It is partisan politics.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Hey brainless one.
> 
> The largest group of people not vaxxed are reliable D voters.
> 
> ...


You might want to redo your analysis of the 30-49 demographic.  Age 18-49 is now about half of new covid hospital admissions.  You can bet it’s the older end of it.

Some of that is the difference in vax rates.   But not all of it.  We still have 10% non-vaccinated for over 65.  By the numbers for original covid, that 10% should completely dominate.  And it isn’t.

It also doesn’t explain how you get 25,000 people under 50 and currently hospitalized with covid.  We didn’t have that during the winter surge.

The simplest explanation is that Delta is significantly riskier for 30-49 than original covid.


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> See there is your trolling again.
> 
> You want to see Trumps tax returns so the dems can dig.
> 
> What crime did he commit? Outside of fishing around, what is the legal reason? Trick question. It is partisan politics.


What does that have to do with your encouragement of a federal crime?


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You might want to redo your analysis of the 30-49 demographic.  Age 18-49 is now about half of new covid hospital admissions.  You can bet it’s the older end of it.
> 
> Some of that is the difference in vax rates.   But not all of it.  We still have 10% non-vaccinated for over 65.  By the numbers for original covid, that 10% should completely dominate.  And it isn’t.
> 
> ...


Dad, honest question.  You know baby crush life story.  You know Big Crush is a no for jabs.  My chance of making a living to feed my family went from slim to zipo with the new information I just received for folks like me.  Do you think i should be forced to take the jabs to buy and sell or should I have a special free pass that allows me to skip the experiment?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> What does any of that have to do with your obvious encouragement of crime?


I didn't know Hound was a Democrat.


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You might want to redo your analysis of the 30-49 demographic.  Age 18-49 is now about half of new covid hospital admissions.  You can bet it’s the older end of it.
> 
> Some of that is the difference in vax rates.   But not all of it.  We still have 10% non-vaccinated for over 65.  By the numbers for original covid, that 10% should completely dominate.  And it isn’t.
> 
> ...


If I were a religious man, I would be praying that a new variant that targets children does not evolve in the swamp of the voluntarily unvaccinated.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You might want to redo your analysis of the 30-49 demographic.  Age 18-49 is now about half of new covid hospital admissions.  You can bet it’s the older end of it.
> 
> Some of that is the difference in vax rates.   But not all of it.  We still have 10% non-vaccinated for over 65.  By the numbers for original covid, that 10% should completely dominate.  And it isn’t.
> 
> ...


Lol!  What new virus hasn't been riskier than the last?  I'm sure your numbers are being hyped when we look at IFR.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The simplest explanation is that Delta is significantly riskier for 30-49 than original covid.


That stats from the countries that have already experienced the wave and are done with it...clearly show delta is NOT an issue. Deaths barely moved.

To pretend otherwise is...well just pretending.

We don't need to wonder what will happen with Delta spreading through the population. We can already look at a number of countries in the west. They neither had an issue with a rise in deaths NOR had to dealt with their hospital systems coming anywhere CLOSE to having issues. 

Look at the data. 

*"Coronavirus: While Delta infections in UK continue to be high and rising, there has not been a corresponding rise in the number of hospitalisations, study said."*









						UK Delta Variant Infections High But Hospitalisations In Check: Study
					

UK health officials said the Delta variant of COVID-19 continues its rise in the UK with a further 36,800 cases logged on Friday, which marks a 17 per cent increase over the previous week.




					www.ndtv.com
				




The Reassuring Data on the Delta Variant
There’s no sign of a surge in hospitalization or severe illness, and the vaccines remain extremely effective









						Opinion | The Reassuring Data on the Delta Variant
					

There’s no sign of a surge in hospitalization or severe illness, and the vaccines remain extremely effective.




					www.wsj.com
				




"Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers
Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it."

---Same article states this. Sound familiar?

"Exponential growth in infections since June *led to predictions of as many as 100,000 new cases being reported daily, and fears that the National Health Service (NHS) could be overwhelmed by hospitalizations.*"

But that didn't happen...and per the article: "Few public-health experts, however, anticipated the recent sharp drop — and they are struggling to interpret it.









						Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers
					

Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it.




					www.nature.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> If I were a religious man, I would be praying that a new variant that targets children does not evolve in the swamp of the voluntarily unvaccinated.


You can't target the aborted.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> That stats from the countries that have already experienced the wave and are done with it...clearly show delta is NOT an issue. Deaths barely moved.
> 
> To pretend otherwise is...well just pretending.
> 
> ...


Japan's current IFR is .0008 and .015 since Feb 2020.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 4, 2021)

crush said:


> Dad, honest question.  You know baby crush life story.  You know Big Crush is a no for jabs.  My chance of making a living to feed my family went from slim to zipo with the new information I just received for folks like me.  Do you think i should be forced to take the jabs to buy and sell or should I have a special free pass that allows me to skip the experiment?


No free pass.  Some jobs and recreations involve higher risk, and people in those jobs and recreations need to be vaccinated.

So, if your job is in person sales, you need to be vaccinated.  Just too much risk to other people if you don’t.

I have no idea if your employer can give you a telephone desk job until the time if/when it calms down.  Sounds like you asked and they said no.

There are no baby parts in the jab.  Best description is they have some vials of stem cells, and they gave the jab to some of those vials.   

Researchers are developing stem cell lines so we can stop using the stem cell lines that came from those two abortions.   So, it may not be an issue 15 years from now.  They just aren’t there yet.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

And the left still think the NY Times and others are str8 shooters and Fox is the only biased source out there.

Unfortunately the Times and others also have an agenda to sell or in this case HIDE.


"A top editor at the New York Times instructed Times staffers not to investigate the origins of COVID-19, two Times employees confirmed today.
'In early 2020,' a veteran Times employee tells me, 'I suggested to a senior editor at the paper that we investigate the origins of COVID-19. *I was told it was dangerous to run a piece about the origins of the coronavirus. *There was resistance to running anything that could suggest that [COVID-19 was manmade or had leaked accidentally from a lab].'"

"In November 2019,* it emerged that China Daily had failed to disclose to federal authorities millions of dollars in payments to US outlets including the Times and the Washington Post. In August 2020, the Times quietly scrubbed the China-funded advertorials from its website. *Still, in October 2020, the Times ran an op-ed by Regina Ip, a member of Hong Kong's Executive Council, justifying the repression of anti-government protests in the Hong Kong SAR."









						Exclusive: New York Times quashed COVID origins inquiry
					

A top editor at the New York Times instructed Times staffers not to investigate the origins of COVID-19, two Times employees confirmed today




					spectatorworld.com
				




"As someone who has spent years researching the history of the Times, I was struck by the paper's markedly pro-China bent at the start of the pandemic. It opposed Trump's travel ban to and from China as "isolationist". It all but ignored the unparalleled success of China's arch-enemy, Taiwan, in containing the virus. It downplayed China's economic war against Australia, whose prime minister early on questioned the CCP story on the pandemic's origins. *And it celebrated China's success in battling Covid-19, taking the CCP's absurd mortality numbers at face value, reporting in August 2020 that 4,634 Chinese people died from the virus and, six months later, that there were 4,636 total deaths. That in a country of 1.4 billion people only two people died of Covid-19 in the half a year defies logic and common sense. Still, the Times legitimised the CCP numbers by printing them as hard fact."*

"The Times, *which used Daszak as a key source in over a dozen articles, has never mentioned that Daszak's organisation funded the Wuhan lab, in particular research into bats and coronaviruses, a flagrant conflict of interest*. Crucially, there was no mention of this when a reporter interviewed Daszak this February, following his return from a heavily criticised WHO investigation into the virus's origins. (Danszak later recused himself from the investigation because of the conflict of interest.)


But the Times *also never revealed that Daszak was a favoured source for another outlet: China Daily. The state-owned media organisation, along with Xinhua and sister outlet Global Times, repeatedly quoted Daszak to assure readers of China's full cooperation in the search for the virus�s origins -- and to discredit the possibility of a lab leak."*









						Did the New York Times stifle lab leak debate?
					

Were commercial relationships with China a factor?




					unherd.com


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No free pass.  Some jobs and recreations involve higher risk, and people in those jobs and recreations need to be vaccinated.
> 
> So, if your job is in person sales, you need to be vaccinated.  Just too much risk to other people if you don’t.
> 
> ...


Only the adeno-based vaccines involve the use of the HEK-293 cell line that would pose issues for some people.  The mRNA vaccines are, as far as I'm aware, completely synthetic.  They are basically lipid nanoparticles with in vitro transcribed RNA.


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> No free pass.  Some jobs and recreations involve higher risk, and people in those jobs and recreations need to be vaccinated.
> 
> So, if your job is in person sales, you need to be vaccinated.  Just too much risk to other people if you don’t.
> 
> ...


It's a stretch to call them abortions since the original blastocysts never lived in a human placenta.


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Only the adeno-based vaccines involve the use of the HEK-293 cell line that would pose issues for some people.  The mRNA vaccines are, as far as I'm aware, completely synthetic.  They are basically lipid nanoparticles with in vitro transcribed RNA.


Would you or dad4 kindly produce the ingredients of the Spike protein that is now in YOUR blood stream?  Look, i dont need to go deeply emtional on you non believers about weather or knot fetus tissue from deep in stem is in this batch.  Honestly I dont give a fuck at this point.  I need someone on this panel to show me wtf you injected in your arms.  I see videos of hammers, spoons and phones magnetically atrached to their arm.  Tell you what.  Im going to think critically for myself and get back to you and Dad4.  I 100% have no idea what you took bro.  I wont speculate anymore.  The souls of the babies are alive and well btw.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So this goes into the bad section.
> 
> This is increasingly how our gov works. And it shouldn't be like this.
> 
> ...


Too big to fail banks getting bailed out again.  Time to exchange your mortgage for a HELOC or partial HELOC.  Cheap (amortized) money is more expensive then you think.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 4, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Only the adeno-based vaccines involve the use of the HEK-293 cell line that would pose issues for some people.  The mRNA vaccines are, as far as I'm aware, completely synthetic.  They are basically lipid nanoparticles with in vitro transcribed RNA.


Thanks.  

I was going off of this-









						You asked, we answered: Do the COVID-19 vaccines contain aborted fetal cells?
					

Do the COVID-19 vaccines contain aborted fetal cells?




					www.nebraskamed.com
				




Getting out of my depth, beyond that.  

My brother is solidly pro life and got the jab.  He does wish they'd replace the old stem cell lines, because he doesn't like the link.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> It's a stretch to call them abortions since the original blastocysts never lived in a human placenta.


Link?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> It's a stretch to call them abortions since the original blastocysts never lived in a human placenta.


Feel better now?


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Feel better now?


Who feels better? Link?

hehe


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Only the adeno-based vaccines involve* the use of the HEK-293 cell line that would pose issues for some people*.


Issues?  What specific people?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Who feels better? Link?
> 
> hehe


The pro-abortion guy.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 4, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Issues?  What specific people?


People who, for moral reasons, would object if they were to understand that part of the development of a vaccine (in this case development of the adenovirus vectors used for some DNA based CoV-2 vaccines) was conducted in embryonic stem cell lines (the specific one is named HEK-293) that were produced decades ago.  The Crush/EJ/et al? poster appears to be of this group.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 4, 2021)

crush said:


> Would you or dad4 kindly produce the ingredients of the Spike protein that is now in YOUR blood stream?  Look, i dont need to go deeply emtional on you non believers about weather or knot fetus tissue from deep in stem is in this batch.  Honestly I dont give a fuck at this point.  I need someone on this panel to show me wtf you injected in your arms.  I see videos of hammers, spoons and phones magnetically atrached to their arm.  Tell you what.  Im going to think critically for myself and get back to you and Dad4.  I 100% have no idea what you took bro.  I wont speculate anymore.  The souls of the babies are alive and well btw.


In a sense we did produce the S protein.  In my case, I got the mRNA Moderna vaccine.  Cells in my body took up that mRNA and used it as genetic instructions to produce the S protein.  The mRNA codes for the S protien.  Then antigen presenting cells chopped up the S protein, allowing an adaptive immune response.  The mRNA is degraded and the S protein is no longer produced its transient.  So the S protein is no longer in MY bloodstream.

The magnetization does suck for while.  Having the silverware stick to you isn't the worse part.  Its that it disrupts you internet connection.  I had to dig up an older model laptop with an ether net port, hook it straight into the router and wrap the cable with lead sheathing.  Also, you'll also want to use a conventional oven for awhile.  No microwave.  I learned that the hard way.  Seriously, you need to watch different videos.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 4, 2021)

crush said:


> Would you or dad4 kindly produce the ingredients of the Spike protein that is now in YOUR blood stream?  Look, i dont need to go deeply emtional on you non believers about weather or knot fetus tissue from deep in stem is in this batch.  Honestly I dont give a fuck at this point.  I need someone on this panel to show me wtf you injected in your arms.  I see videos of hammers, spoons and phones magnetically atrached to their arm.  Tell you what.  Im going to think critically for myself and get back to you and Dad4.  I 100% have no idea what you took bro.  I wont speculate anymore.  The souls of the babies are alive and well btw.


I got Pfizer.

It's the outside of a cold virus, and the inside has RNA directions for making spike proteins.  (It can't grow, because it does not have the instructions for making more RNA.)

Some unlucky cells took this up and started making spike proteins.  The cell then displayed the spike protein on the outside.  

When immune system came along, it killed the spike protein cell, and started making antibodies against spike proteins.

The proteins themselves got eaten.  

Today I don't have spike proteins, but I do have antibodies against them.

Agree you need different videos.  If your videos have magnetic people, then you're drinking deep from the internet's lunatic spring.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 4, 2021)

[


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Link?


Here's an easy one -- From the article you posted -- "Fetal cell lines are not the same as fetal tissue."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I got Pfizer.
> 
> It's the outside of a cold virus, and the inside has RNA directions for making spike proteins.  (It can't grow, because it does not have the instructions for making more RNA.)
> 
> ...


Probably fear driven.


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> []


Fixed it for you.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> Fixed it for you.


That grammerly is really paying off for you.


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

I'm still thinking in my brain for a response for all the little Tin Man's we have among us.  Born with no heart must be hard.  I now see clearly.  All they have is fear.  See evil, feel no evil.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 4, 2021)

When Does the COVID-19 Panic End? | RealClearPolitics
					

Two weeks to slow the spread. That was the original rationale for the lockdowns, masking and social distancing: Prevent transmission of the coronavirus so that...




					www.realclearpolitics.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 4, 2021)

Once the Delta wave is passed we now have the Lambda to worry about.










						Is the lambda variant vaccine resistant? What we know as delta continues to be main threat
					

Researchers in Japan have found mutations in the lambda COVID-19 variant that might make it more resistant to vaccines compared to other strains.



					www.tennessean.com
				




Meanwhile, this Newsweek piece reaches hysterics with one expert wondering if we may have a forever pandemic. ^\_(;?)_/^









						A Doomsday COVID Variant Worse Than Delta May Be Coming, Scientists Say
					

Delta has shown how destructive new strains of COVID can get. Scientists fear future mutations of the virus could be even worse: "Delta on steroids."




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Once the Delta wave is passed we now have the Lambda to worry about.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


*Delta Lambda Phi* (*ΔΛΦ*) is an international social fraternity for gay, bisexual, transgender and progressive men. It offers a social environment and structure similar to other Greek-model college fraternities. The fraternity was founded on October 15, 1986, by Vernon L. Strickland III in Washington, D.C.[2] The full, corporate name of the fraternity is Delta Lambda Phi Social Fraternity, but it is commonly referred to as "DLP" by its members. As of 2007, DLP was one of the fastest growing fraternities in the United States.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> When Does the COVID-19 Panic End? | RealClearPolitics
> 
> 
> Two weeks to slow the spread. That was the original rationale for the lockdowns, masking and social distancing: Prevent transmission of the coronavirus so that...
> ...


At some point (and it should have been long ago) enough is enough. 

The article is spot on showing the ever changing goalposts.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Once the Delta wave is passed we now have the Lambda to worry about.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Note the fear they are spreading.

"Delta has now shattered that optimism. This variant, first identified in India in December, spreads faster than any previous strain of SARS-CoV-2, as the COVID-19 virus is officially named. It is driving up infection rates in every state of the U.S., prompting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to once again recommend universal mask-wearing.

The Delta outbreak is going to get much worse, warns Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist who leads the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "

If one looks at the data and the countries that have just experienced and finished their spike in Delta one would see not the doom, but the good news. Cases rose dramatically. Deaths and hospitalizations DID NOT. 

That should be GOOD news. 

And yet they pretend that didn't happen and tell us to buckle up and be scared.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 4, 2021)

I'm sure there's some excuse for why the LA mask mandates aren't having an obvious impact....



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423010998982635520


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm sure there's some excuse for why the LA mask mandates aren't having an obvious impact....


I am sure @dad4 has a theory.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

The _Wall Street Journal_ reports that the data on which the CDC based its latest mask ‘guidance’ are flawed. A slice:



> Another point of consternation for some scientists is the tracking of so-called breakthrough Covid-19 infections among people who have been vaccinated.
> The CDC has said such infections are more common with Delta than previous variants, but the agency stopped tracking mild or moderate breakthrough infections that didn’t lead to hospitalization or death in April, before Delta emerged as a driver of the pandemic in the U.S.
> Without that additional breakthrough data, scientists have struggled to understand how Delta behaves compared with earlier iterations of the virus, said Daniel Kuritzkes, chief of the division of infectious diseases at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston.
> “It then leaves unmeasured the extent of infection and extent of transmission among vaccinated people,” he said.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm sure there's some excuse for why the LA mask mandates aren't having an obvious impact....
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423010998982635520


Yeah.  Masks are pretty much the only difference between LA and OC.

Other than the masks, you'd have no way to tell the difference between Compton and Irvine....


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

*If more Americans don't get vaccinated, there is 'ample chance' for a more dangerous variant to emerge, Fauci says





*


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

"If we don't *crush* the outbreak to the point of getting the overwhelming proportion of the population vaccinated, then *what will happen is the virus will continue to smolder through the fall into the winter*, giving it ample chance to get a variant which, quite frankly, we're very lucky that the vaccines we have now do very well against the variants -- particularly against severe illness," said Fauci.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 4, 2021)

Biden admin apparently will extend the vaxx mandate to foreign entries into the United States.  The sticking point is whether it will apply to illegal entries across nonapproved crossing points.  The issue of course is central america is running very far behind Europe in vaccination.  If they do it, it essentially means shutting down the illegal border crossings.  If they don't others will complain they are being held to a higher standard and it may not pass rational basis court review.  Hence the delay.


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

I notice Dr. F says, "quite Frankly" "very lucky" "very fortunate" "could be" "the experts" "lingering around" and so much more that it's making me sick to my head.  I know we have smart cats at the forum.  I learned one thing in life and that is to question everything.  So far the the scientists who like to do experiments have not answered my questions with honesty, openness and transparently.  

Dad, are we in a war?


----------



## what-happened (Aug 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Biden admin apparently will extend the vaxx mandate to foreign entries into the United States.  *The sticking point is whether it will apply to illegal entries across nonapproved crossing points.  *The issue of course is central america is running very far behind Europe in vaccination.  If they do it, it essentially means shutting down the illegal border crossings.  If they don't others will complain they are being held to a higher standard and it may not pass rational basis court review.  Hence the delay.





Grace T. said:


> We've had enough people crossing illegally to populate the 10th ranked city in the country.  The reluctance to even discuss anything covid relating to this group of people is hilarious.  Will  there be a vaccine mandate at the border?  Are we really serious about the delta variant "pandemic"?  Probably not and not really.
> 
> But don't worry, no vaxx no food in NYC.  I wonder who is going to prepare the food?  Imagine being in the food and beverage industry in NYC.  It's already hard to find employees - now lets add another barrier to entry.  No vaxx no work?


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Biden admin apparently will extend the vaxx mandate to foreign entries into the United States.  The sticking point is whether it will apply to illegal entries across nonapproved crossing points.  The issue of course is central america is running very far behind Europe in vaccination.  If they do it, it essentially means shutting down the illegal border crossings.  If they don't others will complain they are being held to a higher standard and it may not pass rational basis court review.  Hence the delay.


Amazing run of deduction.


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

Secretary of Defense Austin to announce *mandatory vaccine* policy for all active duty military

Dad says, "no jab, no job."  I get it now you guys.  

Don Lemon says, "sorry, no entertainment for you.  No going out to eat.  No jab, no service."

My friend Jim was just told he need to get the jab to go to court house.  He does law stuff.  

Gov. say's anti vax are drunk drivers.

Most of my neighbors would want me in jail if I dont take jab.  

Sad day today.  Grown men making fun of abortion too.  Grown men making fun of my dd on this forum for over three years.  These guys are losing power and they know it.  I heard a 70 year old woman was raped at gun point in NYC the other night.  The perp came from behind with a black mask on and another sort of shield to cover his identity.  He got a way and is looking to rape again.  I know why mask is being forced down our lives now, do you?

Grown men think this is all funny.  Guess what fellas?


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

crush said:


> *If more Americans don't get vaccinated, there is 'ample chance' for a more dangerous variant to emerge, Fauci says*


Shocking!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

crush said:


> *If more Americans don't get vaccinated, there is 'ample chance' for a more dangerous variant to emerge, Fauci says*





espola said:


> Amazing run of deduction.


Agree


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 4, 2021)

Next shoe....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423043640658649089


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> Amazing run of deduction.


"Oh Magoo, you old bean, you've done it again!"


----------



## espola (Aug 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Next shoe....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423043640658649089


About time.


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> About time.


True story.  Espola thinks I make up stories.  This friend who will name nameless is a super nice guy but follows orders by his leaders

Friend: Hey bro, just calling you back

Crush:  I was confused by your text.  Did you say you have a blood clot?????

Friend: Yes

Crush:  How did that happen ((He had to go back to work after summer break  I believe his industry says they expect all staff to be vaxed, his words not mine.))

Friend: bla, bla and more bla reasons why he has blood clot. 

Crush:  Did you end up taking the jab bro?

Friend: Ya, but.............my Doc said it has nothing to do with it

Crush:  Ok bro, please be safe.  Are you taking any medication?

Friend:  Yes, blood thiner

That is 100% fact Espola and Dad.  Be careful what you psuh on people folks.  The Military is watching.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 4, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I am sure @dad4 has a theory.


Yah…it’s non compliance in LA Co that’s causing the problems.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

espola said:


> About time.


.00013 IFR.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Yah…it’s non compliance in LA Co that’s causing the problems.


More than likely it's at least three zeroes to the right of the IFR decimal point that is causing problems for the Scientist who want to keep their jobs or get promoted or published.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

Writing in _Spiked_, Martin Kulldorff and Jay Bhattacharya decry the smear campaign against the Great Barrington Declaration. Two slices:


In October 2020, along with Professor Sunetra Gupta, we authored the Great Barrington Declaration, in which we argued for a ‘focused protection’ pandemic strategy. We called for better protection of older and other high-risk people, while arguing that children should be allowed to go to school and young adults should be free to live more normal lives. We understood that it might lead to vigorous and heated discussions, but we did not expect a multi-pronged propaganda campaign that gravely distorted our arguments and smeared us. We are just three public-health scientists, after all. So how and why did this slanderous counterattack emerge?

In his recent book, _Spike_, Jeremy Farrar – a SAGE member and director of the Wellcome Trust – has provided a helpful hint: the political strategist and the prime minister’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, planned a propaganda campaign against the Great Barrington Declaration. Farrar’s exact words are that Cummings ‘wanted to run an aggressive press campaign against those behind the Great Barrington Declaration and others opposed to blanket Covid-19 restrictions’. Cummings and Farrar preferred a blanket lockdown strategy, believing it would avoid a winter Covid wave.

…..

[Matt] Hancock, Anthony Fauci, Jeremy Farrar and prominent journalists also mischaracterized the Great Barrington Declaration as a ‘herd-immunity strategy’, even though any strategy will lead to herd immunity sooner or later. Yes, the Declaration discussed herd immunity. It would be irresponsible to ignore such a basic biological fact. But to characterize the Great Barrington Declaration as a ‘herd-immunity strategy’ is like describing a pilot’s plan to land a plane as a ‘gravity strategy’. The goal of a pilot is to land the plane safely while managing the force of gravity. The goal of any Covid pandemic plan should be to minimize disease mortality and the collateral harms from the plan itself, while managing the build-up of immunity in the population. Shockingly, some politicians, journalists and even scientists denied the very existence of herd immunity.* Some even questioned the existence of natural immunity from Covid, which is a bit like denying gravity.*


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

Step right up folks and get $100 for a jab or maybe $100,000 for three jabs.......







Super more bad news fellas and right from the horses mouth.  The blind, the lame, the deaf, the Liars, all cheaters and killers are running wild.  My friend Colin told me thank you for helping him.  His faith was weak because of all the liars.  My sad and bad news is a dear friend of my wife, just told my wife, if she doesn't get the jab no more friendship in a round about way.  It was just like 2016 all over again when friends on FB drew a redline and told peeps if you support t, no friendship.  She doesnt like it when my wife shares with people online about healthy eating habits, forgiveness and mercy talks and losing weight instead of the double shot jab. She is at least 240 lbs with lupus and depression and that's just what we know about.  She is a very good customer for big phama and she get's coupons for 25% off at Rite aid.  Dad just wants all of you to say, "thank you sir may I have another."  Sad times we live in yet I'm happy to find out who my true pals are.  I see the board clearly.  So does you know who and he has big reward for those who play fair and treat others with dignity and respect.  Take a jab for the team they say, ((keep your ability to put food on the table too and be able to go out and be entertain with VPK)) and do it for your neighbor too and those you shop with.  Peer pressure is coming on hard now.  No jab, no soccer?  Grace, what have you heard on this front.  Round 2 this fall is going to be crazy.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

Remember, Sweden should be _a thousand times worse_ than everywhere else if the craziness of the past 18 months were justified.

It's a story in four charts.

Here goes:


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 4, 2021)

They're not wearing masks in Sweden, by the way, but you probably knew that.

Now, back in the United States:

Looks like they're planning to bring back plenty of the craziness in the schools this fall. I swear, it's like these loons are trying to subsidize my work.

What work is that, you ask?


----------



## crush (Aug 4, 2021)

*Bill Gates says divorce from Melinda a 'very sad milestone,' meetings with Epstein a 'mistake'*

Billionaires dont make mistakes.  17 times to little st james is no mistake.  Now he's out jabbing the shit out of people.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 4, 2021)

__





						Mask Mandate Reinstated in San Francisco—as Daily COVID Deaths Hit Zero | Jon Miltimore
					

Daily COVID deaths are at zero and 93 percent of San Francisco residents over the age of 65 are vaccinated.  So why are mask mandates a thing again?



					fee.org


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 4, 2021)

Deadline is reporting city of la is seriously considering an indoor vax requirement.  Scope has yet to be fully determined but the proposals on the table go beyond New York and include retail establishment. Unvaxxed children so far are not exempt.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 4, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Yah…it’s non compliance in LA Co that’s causing the problems.


Report I got from LAFC game tonight was noticeably less than 50% compliance.  And LAFC pretty much stunk it up.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 4, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> More than likely it's at least three zeroes to the right of the IFR decimal point that is causing problems for the Scientist who want to keep their jobs or get promoted or published.


Right.  Digits to the left of the decimal in real world numerator and denominator?  Not so important I guess.  

Still, its clear you are not impressed with the IFR for Cov-2.  We should try to find your wow spot.  I can think of two ways forward.  The first is that since USAMRIID is open for business again at Ft. Detrick we can see if we can get you a hall pass.  Knock on the doors of the BSL4 labs till you find something to your liking.  Second, we could bring forward candidates.  My first suggestion would be rabies, although there are many other possibilities.  Without medical intervention, rabies has an IFR of 1.  If that doesn't knock your socks off I don't know what will.  For example, from 2002-04 there was an outbreak in rural Zhejiang Province in China where 7 people died from rabid badger bites.  Badgers are ill-tempered beasts under the best of conditions.  I can't imagine a rabid one.  Would make Old Yeller look like a cuddly pussy cat.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 4, 2021)

San Diego union tribune poll has newsom losing the recall handily. It’s probably an outlier poll. But given the other polls of the last few days it definitely is a sign newsom is in trouble (though I still think he has a handful of points of advantage that will spin on turnout). Poll points to renewed covid restrictions as a big reason for the shift. Meet Kevin (d) is in the lead to replace newsom.  Meet Kevin has a lot of quirky ideas I think will backfire but I’ll take meet Kevin at this point.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

*Former Obama official calls for unvaccinated to be put on 'no-fly list'*
*Former Assistant Secretary for Homeland Security Juliette Kayyem wrote that 'flying is not a right'*


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

Stay safe to all my friends in Nocal.  This warrior for her cause was cruising around the Street's of San Francisco yesterday.  I would hire Dirty Harry if I were guys.  What a mess.  My wife's father loves SF and we were going to take visit next week.  Not no more.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> San Diego union tribune poll has newsom losing the recall handily. It’s probably an outlier poll. But given the other polls of the last few days it definitely is a sign newsom is in trouble (though I still think he has a handful of points of advantage that will spin on turnout). Poll points to renewed covid restrictions as a big reason for the shift. Meet Kevin (d) is in the lead to replace newsom.  Meet Kevin has a lot of quirky ideas I think will backfire but I’ll take meet Kevin at this point.


His answer….mandate mail in ballots for the recall…..hmmmmmm


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

A word from our sponsor..........

Attention booster seekers and those who have stock in Moderna.  My pal Greg from Kirkland, WA is sick again with the flu or delta maybe.  I swear, in the last 18 months the dude has had the flu 3 times.  He's getting his 3rd shot because he and his wife are 60 and 59. 

*Moderna CEO on when to expect COVID booster shot to be available*
*Stéphane Bancel stresses the importance of providing the booster shots to the elderly population. ((Are they first?))*

Bancel told Bartiromo on Thursday that the company is *"still learning a lot"* about the Delta variant.

*"It’s clearly very contagious," *he noted, adding that *hospitalizations have been increasing* in many places across the country, *especially in areas with many unvaccinated people. *

He pointed to current data, which revealed that *those who received a third dose of a Moderna vaccine had a "42 times increase in antibodies with the same vaccine as a third dose"* compared to the level of antibodies provided by a second dose.  ((Or, those who take care of their own bodies and stop eating meat and sugar poison have 100 times better chance of avoiding the flu)).

"So *we think we have the tools* to be here to help and to continue to keep Americans safe *so that we can run the **economy* and *so kids can go to school,*" Bancel said.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 5, 2021)

I find it interesting that the states/locations that really want vaxx passports to enter biz, etc are also the ones that are adamantly against photo ID requirements for voting. 

I further find it interesting that the largest group of people not vaxxed are blacks and hispanics. 

Can they square that circle? 

Of course they cannot.

Amazing how in the span of just a couple of weeks the drumbeat to vax papers to dine in, etc has grown rather large. 

If one doesn't fight back against gov overreach it will keep growing. 

Watching the response to covid shows this to be true. 

Time to fight back and refuse to play along with masks, papers, etc.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I find it interesting that the states/locations that really want vaxx passports to enter biz, etc are also the ones that are adamantly against photo ID requirements for voting.
> 
> I further find it interesting that the largest group of people not vaxxed are blacks and hispanics.
> 
> ...


My best pal Bruno is 100% a no.  He's from Haiti and he and his community have been down this road before.  My other pal is from Mexico.  He and his whole family are 100% a no.  Both told me they don;t trust the kneelers.  They see right through whitey pushing more drugs.  I find it interesting that my white friends signed up so quickly where as my non-white friends are more of a wait and see and so far they see what I see.


----------



## espola (Aug 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> I find it interesting that the states/locations that really want vaxx passports to enter biz, etc are also the ones that are adamantly against photo ID requirements for voting.
> 
> I further find it interesting that the largest group of people not vaxxed are blacks and hispanics.
> 
> ...


Coocoo.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

espola said:


> Coocoo.


I think you should stay over in your neighborhood bro.  You lost?


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

espola said:


> Coocoo.


Did you shit in your pants ever Espola?  I have a funny story but I wont share here.  If you become my friend, I will share.  However, what say you about this stat.

*Even though there’s a 99.8% chance you’ll never shit your pants - everyone should wear a diaper from now on, just to be safe.*

*If we can save just one shart, it’ll be worth it. *


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

My pal with blood clots all over his face and his response to me asking wtf happen to him.......


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Right.  Digits to the left of the decimal in real world numerator and denominator?  Not so important I guess.
> 
> Still, its clear you are not impressed with the IFR for Cov-2.  We should try to find your wow spot.  I can think of two ways forward.  The first is that since USAMRIID is open for business again at Ft. Detrick we can see if we can get you a hall pass.  Knock on the doors of the BSL4 labs till you find something to your liking.  Second, we could bring forward candidates.  My first suggestion would be rabies, although there are many other possibilities.  Without medical intervention, rabies has an IFR of 1.  If that doesn't knock your socks off I don't know what will.  For example, from 2002-04 there was an outbreak in rural Zhejiang Province in China where 7 people died from rabid badger bites.  Badgers are ill-tempered beasts under the best of conditions.  I can't imagine a rabid one.  Would make Old Yeller look like a cuddly pussy cat.


I remember the time we shut down the world economy for rabies.  And if Old Yeller was wearing a mask he would have been fine.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

crush said:


> *Bill Gates says divorce from Melinda a 'very sad milestone,' meetings with Epstein a 'mistake'*
> 
> Billionaires dont make mistakes.  17 times to little st james is no mistake.  Now he's out jabbing the shit out of people.


Billionaires actually make a ton of mistake$.  Let that sink in for a bit.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 5, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> His answer….mandate mail in ballots for the recall…..hmmmmmm


The mail in ballots might actually backfire on him if the poll is correct…their filter isn’t very good and some low info voters particularly in minority communities might be breaking against him.   As someone else said on the internet (maybe Sean t?): I’d bet 20 dollars newsom would win the recall…I wouldn’t bet any more.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Billionaires actually make a ton of mistake$.  Let that sink in for a bit.


I think they do what they want and then find out later if it's mistake.  My point is they do what they want!!!  This one turn out to be a huge mistake!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


*It’s Not Just about Masks*
Similar to the Great Depression and the 9-11 attacks (and the rise of the Galactic Empire), the COVID-19 pandemic may very well end up serving as a catalyst for massive government expansion.

It’s important to understand it’s not just about mask mandates; they are just one example of government overreach (and a convenient one for lawmakers because they seem so benign). Even as mortality has plunged because of vaccination and natural immunity, the pandemic is being invoked to justify everything from “vaccine passports” to student loan “cancelation,” and nakedly extraconstutional actions such as the extension of the CDC’s eviction moratorium.

The pandemic may be all but over, but the crisis may just be beginning. Indeed, that will likely be the case if Americans don’t remember the only moral raison d'être of government: *the protection of liberty.*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

crush said:


> I think they do what they want and then find out later if it's mistake.  My point is they do what they want!!!  This one turn out to be a huge mistake!!!


Oh I get that.  He is no different than a politician.  They suffer not the consequences of the policies they initiate.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> *It’s Not Just about Masks*
> Similar to the Great Depression and the 9-11 attacks (and the rise of the Galactic Empire), the COVID-19 pandemic may very well end up serving as a catalyst for massive government expansion.
> 
> It’s important to understand it’s not just about mask mandates; they are just one example of government overreach (and a convenient one for lawmakers because they seem so benign). Even as mortality has plunged because of vaccination and natural immunity, the pandemic is being invoked to justify everything from “vaccine passports” to student loan “cancelation,” and nakedly extraconstutional actions such as the extension of the CDC’s eviction moratorium.
> ...


Little Cain and his pals that abuse and mistreat children & woman will be no more.  This guy was going around yelling and pointing figures at people for this and that.  Now that we know what he and his wife were up to, well, it's time we ALL get together and not allow these pucks a platform.  The mask is for later.  They need to hide behind the mask so people can do crimes and not be identified.  I hear his laptop is from Satan himself and not just a lap top from hell.  Get eh popcorn out and get ready bro.  It's game on!!  I see the board clearly.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

Ever wonder what Carlos Danger was in the middle of?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

crush said:


> *Former Obama official calls for unvaccinated to be put on 'no-fly list'*
> *Former Assistant Secretary for Homeland Security Juliette Kayyem wrote that 'flying is not a right'*


Damn domestic terrorist.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Damn domestic terrorist.


That's me now bro.  No fly zone!!!  Our family will be like the Bin Ladan family, hunted and chased down like dogs.  I think were all going to be in for a big surprise about the last 150 years.  In California, I'm also a convicted drunk driver now.  On top of that, I'm a white racist who never took a knee for their cause and need to pay the price for the other whites who were like Cain.  We should all take some time to read the book before we judge the cover, no?   The only knee that I will kneel for is for my wife and Jesus Christ!!  I'm super white too.  Dad of 4 kids and so many others want the law to be, "no vax, no nothing for you."  Let that sink in for a moment.  Think, think, think.  Use the little have in your brain to thin about, "no jab, no work."  NYC is telling all peeps to get the Vaccine Passport Key.  What does the key get you?  Sounds like some pass at disney in the old days.  Unlimited rides if you give us control of your life!  Some of the more extreme assholes want me in jail, like Espola and Husker.  My wife, my dd and me have all decided to take a stand for freedom.  My boy is on his own and he blends in well, I'll just say that.  He's way smarter then me and he will out smart the dumb asses his own way.  This is my State too btw.  I was born in 1966 during war.  I witnessed gasoline shortage and I witnessed on TV how evil Iran was.  That is 100% bullshit.  Iranian ((Persuain)) people are some of the most loving and fair minded folks on the planet earth.  I swear.  Sahara cuts my hair and tells me all the cool stories before 1979.  I told all of you I had a dream that my family was over In Iran and Iraq teaching girls how to play soccer.  I believe that day will come in my lifetime.  If others had to step up to Cain in 1776 then by golly I will too.  I was born for this showdown.  Look at the world Evil Goalie and Nova.  CNN and Fox do not show us the truth, just fyi with all the protest.  ALL waiting for US to take a stand against lying and cheating.  We are so close but..............Still waiting for some tired ass lions to WTF up so we can once and for all rid ourselves of assholes who bully and intimidate us.  Are you sick of it yet?  We're Americans and true Americans come in all colors what truth and justice for ALL.  If you want that, put your silly competitive pride aside and take a stand for transparency at the least, right?  Come on, Man!!!  God Bless America!!!


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> As someone else said on the internet (maybe Sean t?): I’d bet 20 dollars newsom would win the recall…I wouldn’t bet any more.


Yeah watch what happens to his numbers in Sept if by that time schools are closed or very restricted based on masks. Watch what happens to his numbers if various parts of the state start either shutting down biz or limiting biz by requiring papers. 

Enough of this crap.


----------



## espola (Aug 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Yeah watch what happens to his numbers in Sept if by that time schools are closed or very restricted based on masks. Watch what happens to his numbers if various parts of the state start either shutting down biz or limiting biz by requiring papers.
> 
> Enough of this crap.


I thought you lived in Arizona.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 5, 2021)

espola said:


> I thought you lived in Arizona.


You fight the madness where ever you see it. It spreads like locusts to other states.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You fight the madness where ever you see it. It spreads like locusts to other states.


And your solution is to help other people lie about their vaccination status?

Those are some messed up values you have there.

I know you think we should focus on the deaths number.  Daily covid deaths are above 400 now, and still doubling.  Over half of that is in ex-Confederate states with few vaccinations and no mask rules.

We can revisit it next month when it crosses 1000.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *And your solution is to help other people lie about their vaccination status?
> 
> Those are some messed up values you have there.*


My family will never take the Jabs.  Has Dr. F and Joe, Hunter and all the others lied? I have a right, especially during a WAR to know what experiment a scientist wants to put in my arm.  Your side of the Isel is bought and paid for by yo know WHO.  You sold your soul for power, control and with that, you think you have all the money.  The fact, many of you are going to jail or worse.  I will sit back and use my mouth and let the MILITARY sort this out because people like you, Husker and Espola are the biggest liars around and now my enemy.  You better watch what you preach bro.  This is a real war. I sure didnt ask for being forced to take the spike jabs with boosters.  I have BILLIONS of people around the world that agree with me btw.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And your solution is to help other people lie about their vaccination status?
> 
> Those are some messed up values you have there.
> 
> ...


You ignored deaths pre-vaxx.  Now you want to revisit deaths post-vaxx so you can ignore and downplay natural immunity while vaccination$ hitch a ride on the immune system.  Big Pharma shill.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 5, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> You ignored deaths pre-vaxx.  Now you want to revisit deaths post-vaxx so you can ignore and downplay natural immunity while vaccination$ hitch a ride on the immune system.  Big Pharma shill.


During a spike, there is a natural progression:  First cases, then hospitalizations, then deaths.  

This leads to a natural progression in excuses from Team Virus:

”This is unimportant- look how few people have covid.”
”It’s only a casedemic.  A lot of people have covid, but there are relatively few deaths or hospitalizations”
”There are a lot of hospitalizations, but cases seem to be peaking.”
”Ok, deaths are high, but cases are falling now.  It’s over.”

We’re running through the same curve of excuses.  You guys are just now moving from step one to step two.

I do like your revised spelling of “vaxx“.   Take it a step further.  If we call it vaXXX, maybe more guys will be willing to show up for the shot?


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And your solution is to help other people lie about their vaccination status?


I know you like the idea of showing papers to live life. Screw that. 

Note how the gov keeps reaching for more and more. 

At some point people need to fight back.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Daily covid deaths are above 400 now, and still doubling.


.0075.  97% with underlying conditions


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> During a spike, there is a natural progression:  First cases, then hospitalizations, then deaths.
> 
> This leads to a natural progression in excuses from Team Virus:
> 
> ...


Errr...the vaccine has decoupled deaths/ICU counts in the vaxxed.  It's had a huge impact on hospitalizations too but hospitalizations are always going to run higher since if you are admitted for any reason (such as having a baby or a car accident) and test positive, you must be monitored and treated for COVID too.  But that's now the difference.  As to the unvaxxed, well they made their choice and if they are under 30 if there are as many breakthroughs as is beginning to be suspected, the vax may not make that much of a difference to them.  If the notion that the vaxx is weaker 6 months after injection turns out to be correct, everyone will eventually get it so the only thing you are doing is postponing the inevitable and in fact possibly making some people more vulnerable than if they got it now....not sure what your end game even is here except restrict for years to come.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> During a spike, there is a natural progression:  First cases, then hospitalizations, then deaths.


Agree.   .0075. 97% with underlying conditions to satisfy your progression.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

Last year, 100% this would be a covid death.  This year's death for the cheaters is that his heart was attacked and he died.  First off, RIP sir.  I know you did a lot for my friends who work in the union.  He worked hard for them.  Herman Cain died with stage 4 cancer and each day to him was something special and he get's nailed for Covid and being stupid and all t's fault for doing what he loves.  Everyday was a day he didnt think he would have. Then assholes use the death to make their point.  This is what sucks about our media and the cheats who lie with them.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> And your solution is to help other people lie about their vaccination status?
> 
> Those are some messed up values you have there.
> 
> ...


Interesting choice of words.  Exactly who in these ex-confederate stats are the least vaxxed?


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

Italy

France

Greece

Spain

USA?


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 5, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Interesting choice of words.  Exactly who in these ex-confederate stats are the least vaxxed?


I am going to take a leap on this one.  

It is a group that the left says cannot reliably get IDs and any ID check is Jim Crow. And out the other side of the left's mouth they want these same people to show papers to do far more basic life activities.

Oh yeah and in the big blue cities that are reliably Dem...these same groups are unvaxxed at rather high rates. 

Would demanding papers from them be like the new version of Jim Crow as well? 

Anyway...

Note the progression. 

2 weeks to slow the curve so the hospitals can handle the demand
A year and a half later we have a vax, deaths are on the floor, hospitals by now should be good to go...and yet Gov wants to impose more restrictions. 

Give them an inch and they will take many miles. 

Don't let them.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 5, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Interesting choice of words.  Exactly who in these ex-confederate stats are the least vaxxed?


ex-Confederate was more accurate than “southeast.“, because you need to include Missouri but not Maryland.

Good question.  And one to which you partially know the answer: non-asian minorities and Republicans.

However, if you’re planning to play the race card, adjust for SES before playing it.  We already have far too many people yelling racism when none exists.  The answer may be more about poverty and media consumption than ethnicity.

My point is that deaths are lower in those places with high rates of vaccination and which actually comply with mask rules.  The skin color of the unvaccinated non-masked person is pretty much irrelevant.  He’d be at less risk with a mask and a shot.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> ex-Confederate was more accurate than “southeast.“, because you need to include Missouri but not Maryland.
> 
> Good question.  And one to which you partially know the answer: non-asian minorities and Republicans.
> 
> ...


Unfortunately this whole thing has been politicized.  Skin color is relevant and needs to be considered when mounting a pubic health campaign.  Every single person involved in public health takes this and economic status into consideration when planning for their communities.  To call that effort racist and racism is just unfortunate.  

To separate the vaxxed from the unvaxx and place them in political parties is not productive..But it gets great ratings ..


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Aug 5, 2021)

Nate Silver's breakdown of vaccination/NPI positions in the US.  It still roughly breaks down to 1/3 terrified wants restrictions, 1/3 in the middle depending how bad things get, 1/3 thinks it's over and done with.  Hasn't moved much since the beginning.  Interestingly the 1/3 that's terrified has a small but not insignificant block that doesn't want or can't take the vaccine and so wants the limitations in place to protect them.  The 1/3 that's over with it is mostly unvaxxed but has a small but not insignificant block that is.  There's absolutely nothing about this which is science driven at this point.  It's irrational fear v. reckless abandonment.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423301403649396738


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 5, 2021)

"Much of the pathology underlying Covid policy arises from the fantasy that it is possible to eradicate the virus."

"Humanity’s unimpressive track record of deliberately eradicating contagious diseases warns us that lockdown measures, however draconian, can’t work. *Thus far, the number of such diseases so eliminated stands at two—and one of these, rinderpest, affected only even-toed ungulates. The lone human infectious disease we’ve deliberately eradicated is smallpox.* The bacterium responsible for the Black Death, the 14th-century outbreak of bubonic plague, is still with us, causing infections even in the U.S."

"While the eradication of smallpox—a virus 100 times as deadly as Covid—was an impressive feat, it shouldn’t be used as a precedent for Covid. For one thing, unlike smallpox, which was carried only by humans, SARS-CoV-2 is also carried by animals, which some hypothesize can spread the disease to humans. We will need to rid ourselves of dogs, cats, mink, bats and more to get to zero."

"*The only practical course is to live with the virus in the same way that we have learned to live over millennia with countless other pathogens. *A focused protection policy can help us cope with the risk. There is a thousand-fold difference in the mortality and hospitalization risk posed by virus to the old relative to the young. We now have good vaccines that have helped protect vulnerable people from the ravages of Covid wherever they have been deployed. *Offering the vaccine to the vulnerable everywhere, not the failed lockdowns, should be the priority to save lives*.

We live with countless hazards, each of which we could but sensibly choose not to eradicate. Automobile fatalities could be eradicated by outlawing motor vehicles. Drowning could be eradicated by outlawing swimming and bathing. Electrocution could be eradicated by outlawing electricity. *We live with these risks not because we’re indifferent to suffering but because we understand that the costs of zero-drowning or zero-electrocution would be far too great. The same is true of zero-Covid.*"









						Opinion | Eradication of Covid Is a Dangerous and Expensive Fantasy
					

It seemed to work in New Zealand and Australia, but now ruinous, oppressive lockdowns are back.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> "Much of the pathology underlying Covid policy arises from the fantasy that it is possible to eradicate the virus."
> 
> "Humanity’s unimpressive track record of deliberately eradicating contagious diseases warns us that lockdown measures, however draconian, can’t work. *Thus far, the number of such diseases so eliminated stands at two—and one of these, rinderpest, affected only even-toed ungulates. The lone human infectious disease we’ve deliberately eradicated is smallpox.* The bacterium responsible for the Black Death, the 14th-century outbreak of bubonic plague, is still with us, causing infections even in the U.S."
> 
> ...


Yeah, there's some suspicion COVID may have crossed into dogs now.  What's worse is maybe even rats (after all, bats are just mice with wings).  If it's crossed into rats and they become a possible zoonotic source there's no way you are getting rid of it....ever.  









						Researchers Find COVID Mutations in NYC Sewage, Pointing to Possible Dog, Rat Infections
					

This article was originally published on Jul 29 at 4:54pm EDT by THE CITY This story is the product of a collaboration with the Documenting COVID-19 project at Columbia University’s Brown Institute for Media Innovation. A group of researchers charged by New York City with scouring human sewage...




					www.nbcnewyork.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Aug 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Note the fear they are spreading.
> 
> "Delta has now shattered that optimism. This variant, first identified in India in December, spreads faster than any previous strain of SARS-CoV-2, as the COVID-19 virus is officially named. It is driving up infection rates in every state of the U.S., prompting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to once again recommend universal mask-wearing.
> 
> ...


Michael “Chicken Little” Osterholm is still making predictions?   Either he nor the publication quoting him have any shame. What a joke.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

dad4 said:


> W





dad4 said:


> ex-Confederate was more accurate than “southeast.“, because you need to include Missouri but not Maryland.
> 
> Good question.  And one to which you partially know the answer: non-asian minorities and Republicans.
> 
> ...


 Your point that deaths are lower in those places with high rates of vaccination and which actually comply with mask use rules are again ignoring how the pro-vaxx Pharma shills are hitchin' a ride on pre-infected naturally immunized folks to make inflated efficacy claims.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 5, 2021)

Meanwhile, Australia, if it could be imagined, is becoming more authoritarian.....









						‘Barbaric’: Returning citizens who live abroad will need permission to leave Australia
					

The move serves as a deterrent for Australians who live abroad but may need to return home for distress travel as it could prohibit them from being able to return to their life overseas.




					www.smh.com.au


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Meanwhile, Australia, if it could be imagined, is becoming more authoritarian.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Lots of authoritarian countries have/had rules like this. Cuba comes to mind.

From the article.

"Now, according to the government’s explanatory statement tabled in Parliament, a person will have to demonstrate to the Australian Border Force Commissioner a* “compelling reason for needing to leave Australian territory”*."

That should scare anyone. This is precisely why one needs to fight these seemingly "common sense" rules in the US now. Gov only goes in one direction related to power.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 5, 2021)

Deeper into the article.

This is disturbing.

"Australia is alone in banning its citizens, temporary visa holders, permanent residents and dual citizens from leaving the country under the international travel ban brought in March 2020."


----------



## espola (Aug 5, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Deeper into the article.
> 
> This is disturbing.
> 
> "Australia is alone in banning its citizens, temporary visa holders, permanent residents and dual citizens from leaving the country under the international travel ban brought in March 2020."


I thought you lived in Arizona.


----------



## watfly (Aug 5, 2021)

espola said:


> I thought you lived in Arizona.


Be nice to Zonies.  They hosted a lot of SoCal soccer during the Newsom lock down.  Plus most of them spend part of the year in SoCal.


----------



## watfly (Aug 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nate Silver's breakdown of vaccination/NPI positions in the US.  It still roughly breaks down to 1/3 terrified wants restrictions, 1/3 in the middle depending how bad things get, 1/3 thinks it's over and done with.  Hasn't moved much since the beginning.  Interestingly the 1/3 that's terrified has a small but not insignificant block that doesn't want or can't take the vaccine and so wants the limitations in place to protect them.  The 1/3 that's over with it is mostly unvaxxed but has a small but not insignificant block that is.  There's absolutely nothing about this which is science driven at this point.  It's irrational fear v. reckless abandonment.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423301403649396738


IDK, it seems to me the vast majority of Americans are pro-vax, mask ambivalent to mask skeptical (but compliant), anti-mask for children, want fully open schools and just want to live with the "risk" and move on without restriction.  

I'm about to get on my 10th flight in the last week and every flight has been 100% full except for one short connection.  I would think that if the general population was that worried about Covid, travel wouldn't be so swamped.  Airport restaurants are also slammed with no masks while seated.

It seems there are two worlds in the US...the one portrayed by CNN and reality.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> Be nice to Zonies.  They hosted a lot of SoCal soccer during the Newsom lock down.  Plus most of them spend part of the year in SoCal.


They sure do.  Spent a couple of weekends with them on their boat BBQ'ing and watching Big Bay Boom!  Zonies have a 7 day avg. of 2,029 new cases and 15 new deaths for an IFR of .00739.  California does marginally better at .00431 after being locked down and not hosting any soccer.


----------



## espola (Aug 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nate Silver's breakdown of vaccination/NPI positions in the US.  It still roughly breaks down to 1/3 terrified wants restrictions, 1/3 in the middle depending how bad things get, 1/3 thinks it's over and done with.  Hasn't moved much since the beginning.  Interestingly the 1/3 that's terrified has a small but not insignificant block that doesn't want or can't take the vaccine and so wants the limitations in place to protect them.  The 1/3 that's over with it is mostly unvaxxed but has a small but not insignificant block that is.  There's absolutely nothing about this which is science driven at this point.  It's irrational fear v. reckless abandonment.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423301403649396738


Interesting. Silver says 5 groups, so you read that as 3.  

That level of innumeracy pervades covid discussion.


----------



## espola (Aug 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> IDK, it seems to me the vast majority of Americans are pro-vax, mask ambivalent to mask skeptical (but compliant), anti-mask for children, want fully open schools and just want to live with the "risk" and move on without restriction.
> 
> I'm about to get on my 10th flight in the last week and every flight has been 100% full except for one short connection.  I would think that if the general population was that worried about Covid, travel wouldn't be so swamped.  Airport restaurants are also slammed with no masks while seated.
> 
> It seems there are two worlds in the US...the one portrayed by CNN and reality.


What world is CNN portraying?


----------



## espola (Aug 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> Be nice to Zonies.  They hosted a lot of SoCal soccer during the Newsom lock down.  Plus most of them spend part of the year in SoCal.


Old OB  bumper sticker reads "Zonies go home but leave your daughters". (Or was it dollars?)


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

espola said:


> Interesting. Silver says 5 groups, so you read that as 3.
> 
> That level of innumeracy pervades covid discussion.


That has never stopped you before.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

espola said:


> What world is CNN portraying?


That one.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 5, 2021)

watfly said:


> *It seems there are two worlds in the US...the one portrayed by CNN and reality.*


This..


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

This is getting to become very sick!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

*Fully vaccinated* people who get a Covid-19 breakthrough infection *can transmit the virus*, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Thursday.
"Our vaccines are working exceptionally well," Walensky told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "They continue to work well for Delta, with regard to severe illness and death -- they prevent it.* But what they can't do anymore is prevent transmission." *((Not good folks.  The only people I know who are sick, have blood clots and feel pissed off and scared all at once atr those with two or more jabs))

*'Next variant is just around the corner' *((Oh boy, this is never going to end.  This is hell))

Getting more people vaccinated won't just help *crush* this surge, experts say. It will help prevent other -- potentially even more aggressive -- variants from arising in the future.
*"The next variant is just around the corner, if we do not all get vaccinated," *Adm. Brett Giroir, the former coronavirus testing czar under President Donald Trump, told CNN's Chris Cuomo.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

CNN fired three workers for showing up to work unvaccinated.  No jab, no job.  Dam, that place must be hell to work at.  I told my wife to be prepared to live in our place under lockdown.  I already bought enough food for a year.  After that, I know a cave we can live in.  I know how to spear fish and survive without the jabs.  I heard the most divisive political ever ad ever on the radio.  My wife and I laughed but then thought how sick people are.

In the past week, we have been made aware of three employees who were coming to the office unvaccinated. All three have been terminated,” Zucker wrote. “Let me be clear — we have a zero-tolerance policy on this.”


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

crush said:


> *Fully vaccinated* people who get a Covid-19 breakthrough infection *can transmit the virus*, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Thursday.
> "Our vaccines are working exceptionally well," Walensky told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "They continue to work well for Delta, with regard to severe illness and death -- they prevent it.* But what they can't do anymore is prevent transmission." *((Not good folks.  The only people I know who are sick, have blood clots and feel pissed off and scared all at once atr those with two or more jabs))
> 
> *'Next variant is just around the corner' *((Oh boy, this is never going to end.  This is hell))
> ...


Funny thing is that variants have been right around the corner since before mankind.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Funny thing is that variants have been right around the corner since before mankind.


It's starting to concern me now Bruddah.  I have friend whose wife works for big pharma.  She makes $250,000.  Her husband will not get the vax.  She told him jab or divorce.  She is freaking out because this will be her third divorce and he always used to obey her.  Not this time.  He listen to crush's advice. My advice, to be very clear, is to question everything and do your own research.  After the research, decide for yourself what is best for you and you only.  She is actually blaming me for forcing him not to take it.  She's a nut job and all about her blood thinner bonus.  They both had some money and sign prenup so all is not lost.  My pal told me this all happen on Monday and was embarrassed to share with me until today.


----------



## crush (Aug 5, 2021)

WHO got Pfizer stock?  Who got Pfizer jab?  Talk about going all in on a product.....lol.  Sales room must be having some cool happy hours. Congratulations on a killer quarter team.  They made $18,098,000,000 Billion dollars 2nd quarter numbers.  Their drug Eliquis that my pal is taking for blood clots rose 13% and Vyndaquel rose 77% ((that's for cardiomyopathy)). God only knows the true ingredients.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

Inpatient Bed Utilization by State


*Such Numbers Without Context Are Misleading*
by DON BOUDREAUX on AUGUST 5, 2021
in CURRENT AFFAIRS, MEDIA, SEEN AND UNSEEN







> Content Director, News4 Jacksonville
> Sir or Madam:
> Travis Gibson reports rises in the absolute numbers of hospitalized patients in Florida – rises due principally to the Delta variant afflicting unvaccinated Floridians (“Florida hospital CEOs tell DeSantis what they are seeing during latest COVID-19 spike,” August 4). Without context, these numbers might be alarming.
> But a competent reporter gives context, which Mr. Gibson doesn’t here do. So let me help.
> According to the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services’ Project Public Data Hub, as of today (August 5th) 15.85 percent of all hospital beds in Florida for inpatients remain unoccupied, and 11.32 percent of ICU beds remain unoccupied. While these numbers tell us little about the future – or about the situation at any _particular_ medical-care facility – they _do_ help to calm fears created by the possible misimpression that the Delta variant is now causing Florida’s hospitals to be generally overrun with patients.





> Sincerely,
> Donald J. Boudreaux
> Professor of Economics
> and
> ...


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

*Cancer in the Time of COVID-19 in Japan: Collateral Damage*
Pandemic-induced panic had alarming effects on cancer diagnosis and treatment in Japan.

*The Collapse of Inpatient Care in Japan*

As a health economist, I have been tracking the workings of Japanese hospitals and clinics for 30 years. Through the Japanese health policy think tank that I run, Global Health Consulting Japan (GHC), I have compiled data from 454 large acute care hospitals, representing a significant fraction of all inpatient care in Japan.ii Over the course of the epidemic, these hospitals have treated 28,247 COVID patients, accounting for approximately 30% of inpatient COVID inpatient cases in Japan.iii

Image 1, immediately below, shows changes (year-by-year in the same month) in the number of scheduled hospital admissions between March and December 2020 for the top 20 most frequent diagnostic categories in these hospitals.

* * *


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 5, 2021)

The Delta Variant Decoupling in Spain and the Illogic of Vaccine Passports Data and Analysis by José Gefaell

The relevant factor for determining transmission potential is the presence of symptoms, however mild they may be (fever, persistent cough, loss of taste or smell, etc.). We must stop obsessing about asymptomatic COVID-19 infections. We do not do this with any other endemic pathogen, and there is no utility for it in public health.

Symptomatic people should be advised to stay home, whether vaccinated or not. It’s nonsensical to propose a harmful, restrictive mandate to force quarantine of the few who will choose to go out anyway.

Like lockdowns and restrictions on the movements of healthy people, COVID-19 vaccine passports will be a counterproductive measure, not only economically and socially, but for the control of the disease as well.


----------



## crush (Aug 6, 2021)

Today's Bad News for some and Good News for others Headlines

1.  Rona News
-Fully vaccinated people who get Covid-19 can transmit the virus, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said. "But what they can't do anymore is prevent transmission."
-"The unvaccinated continue to be the big highway of transmission," Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University Medical Center said.
-No smoking gun has emerged to support any lab leak theory, and many scientists continue to believe the *virus is more likely to have jumped naturally from animals to humans. *

2. Climate News
-President Biden unveiled another piece of his administration's plan to fight the climate crisis, announcing a new target that half of vehicles sold in the US by 2030 will be battery electric, fuel-cell electric or plug-in hybrid. Biden said the future of American car manufacturing "is electric and there's no turning back."

3.  Riot News
-President Biden unveiled another piece of his administration's plan to fight the climate crisis, announcing a new target that half of vehicles sold in the US by 2030 will be battery electric, fuel-cell electric or plug-in hybrid. Biden said the future of American car manufacturing "is electric and there's no turning back."

4.  Myanmar News
-A Myanmar militia force fighting the army in a central part of the country has found at least 40 bodies in jungle areas in recent weeks, including some showing signs of torture, said a militia member and Myanmar's UN envoy. Since the military overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on February 1, hundreds have been killed as the army violently quelled protests. The bodies were found in several locations around the town of Kani, which has seen fierce fighting in recent months between the army and the militia groups set up by opponents of military rule. Myanmar's UN envoy, who represents the elected civilian government, described the incidents as *"clearly amounting to crimes against humanity."*

5.  Soccer News
-No more Messi
-Sharks get new Doc
-ECNL SW has two divisions
-Top three teams advance to National Playoff.  My prediction this year is Socal will crown a champion in one or more age groups.  It's too early to tell for U18/19 top clubs.  I hear top players are still shopping around for the right fit.
-August 31st is cut off date.
-My wife's parents finally get to see their GDD play a soccer game.
-2022's need to be patient and find the best of the best for them and not what others think is best.  Super duper challenging to navigate for many.


----------



## crush (Aug 6, 2021)

and this just came in......yikes!!!  Look, it's a figure of speech I hope and that's all.  As men, we all need to do a better job of taking care of ALL the kids and ALL the woman who need help. 

*Anaheim Councilman Jordan Brandman resigns, under pressure from colleagues and OC Dems*
After a City Council meeting in February 2020, Brandman was texting with a resident when he referred to Barnes with a vulgar term for female genitals and said he would “rip her (expletive) (breasts) off.” 



He’s not proud of the messages, he said, adding, “I wish I had chosen a more thoughtful way to express that in a private conversation.”


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 6, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The Delta Variant Decoupling in Spain and the Illogic of Vaccine Passports Data and Analysis by José Gefaell
> 
> The relevant factor for determining transmission potential is the presence of symptoms, however mild they may be (fever, persistent cough, loss of taste or smell, etc.). We must stop obsessing about asymptomatic COVID-19 infections. We do not do this with any other endemic pathogen, and there is no utility for it in public health.
> 
> ...


One of the key parts of the article above. @dad4 and other people with the phobia take note....

"Given that Delta comprises roughly 90% of cases in Spain, this CFR reduction suggests that the current Delta variant is likely less lethal than previous phenotypes.

*It also suggests that a substantial degree of natural immunity exists in the younger and unvaccinated populations.

Therefore, we are likely in the endemic phase of COVID-19.*"


----------



## crush (Aug 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> One of the key parts of the article above. @dad4 and other people with the phobia take note....
> 
> "Given that Delta comprises roughly 90% of cases in Spain, this CFR reduction suggests that the current Delta variant is likely less lethal than previous phenotypes.
> 
> ...


Nice work Hound but it's all for nothing bro.  I super appreciate all the graphs and stats from you and Grace and Bruddah.  Were past all that.  The variant around the corner is where all eyes should be.  

The definition of* variant *in the English dictionary: *a way of writing a word which is used by some people as an alternative to the standard or generally accepted form*. 

What is a variant in medical terms you might ask?
(VAYR-ee-unt) *Any change in the DNA sequence of a cell*. Variants may be *caused by mistakes *during cell division, *or* they may be *caused by exposure to DNA-damaging agents in the environment.

*


----------



## crush (Aug 6, 2021)

I found this on the evil internet.  The 2:28 part is something for sure Dad4 and Espola should listen too.  I already knew these facts!!!  









						Covid 19: The UNFILTERED Truth about Covid-19 (8/5/21 | Miguel Escobar | 720p)
					

Miguel Escobar, a local PA (physicians assistant), spoke during a school board meeting on his first hand experience and government clearance backed knowledge about Covid-19 and all the related myths, ...




					odysee.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

crush said:


> 2. Climate News
> -President Biden unveiled another piece of his administration's plan to fight the climate crisis, announcing a new target that half of vehicles sold in the US by 2030 will be battery electric, fuel-cell electric or plug-in hybrid. Biden said the future of American car manufacturing "is electric and there's no turning back."


That should make gas cheaper for everyone else.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> One of the key parts of the article above. @dad4 and other people with the phobia take note....
> 
> "Given that Delta comprises roughly 90% of cases in Spain, this CFR reduction suggests that the current Delta variant is likely less lethal than previous phenotypes.
> 
> ...


Shocking isn't it?  Of course we knew all of this in May of 2020.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

crush said:


> Nice work Hound but it's all for nothing bro.  I super appreciate all the graphs and stats from you and Grace and Bruddah.  Were past all that.  The variant around the corner is where all eyes should be.
> 
> The definition of* variant *in the English dictionary: *a way of writing a word which is used by some people as an alternative to the standard or generally accepted form*.
> 
> ...


Everyone has been ignoring virus history to continue the hype.


----------



## crush (Aug 6, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> That should make gas cheaper for everyone else.


Well, over in Leisure World most folks dont have extra $$$ around and are now paying up to $4.95.  Will it over $5?  Electricity is a joke and only used to control us Bro.  Just wait Bruddah what we all learn that was always available to us for free but the assholes WHO like to play control games charged us.


----------



## crush (Aug 6, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Everyone has been ignoring virus history to continue the hype.


*MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace: ‘If kids aren’t in school, it’s because Republicans didn’t get vaccinated’*
*Republican-turned-MSNBC host echoes Biden administration*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

crush said:


> *MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace: ‘If kids aren’t in school, it’s because Republicans didn’t get vaccinated’*
> *Republican-turned-MSNBC host echoes Biden administration*


Never heard of her.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 6, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Never heard of her.


She clearly is an idiot. 

Let us try these numbers again. 

72 million or so people are 17 or under. 

In a year and a half that group has had roughly 350 deaths. 

If kid's are not in school it is the idiot politicians, the teacher's unions,  and the sheeple that believe them who are preventing them from going to school.

A sane/rational person would look at those numbers and know that this group has zero risk.  

But what about Delta? 

Again instead of making doomsday prophecies....why don't we simply look across the pond to see what the big bad Delta did over there. If one bothers to look at the real world data, instead of making up projections, one would see that our current situation will most likely end up just like those countries. And what happened over there? Well besides barrels of ink spent worrying about what might be...the reality was deaths were completely decoupled from cases.


----------



## crush (Aug 6, 2021)

Hey bro, remember when I told Espola to watch out for Wendy?  He had no idea wtf I was talking about.  He also said on here before he ignored that I make up stories like @ Grace.  He even accused my of playing DH?  Wendy is one tough girl.  Married 43 years and flew Marines all over the world.  I really like this latest Gab,
"We are surrounded by crooks."  ((Wow, that is scary))
"Pure evil and demented delusion."  I'm learning that their is such a thing as "pure evil."
"These people ((pure evil ones)) are actually letting in Covid through our Southern boarder."  ((Insane!!!  Most are little kids with no mom or dad))
"Then they have the nerve to tell us to get three* Frankenstein Jabs*, if you want to work" ((This is by far the best quote of the hole Vax debate))
Oh, "and they lie about the voter fraud."


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> She clearly is an idiot.
> 
> Let us try these numbers again.
> 
> ...


Right from the start.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 6, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> *Numbers Without Context Are Misleading*


Like IFRs for example.


----------



## crush (Aug 6, 2021)

Check this out Evil Goalie & Bruddah.  Jet lands on a street in MI for training exercise.  I hear this the first time ever a jet has landed on a hwy in the States.  I guess it's just some normal training exercise that the Air Force does from time to time.  I can;t wait until they start landing in OC to show us all the latest exercises.  Make sure to wave as they fly by if you see one or two


----------



## crush (Aug 6, 2021)

I already prepped my dd for this you guys.  No jab, no job.  Wife is in same boat.  Not cool fellas but expected from me. Have fun with HSS soccer to all the jabber families ((jk, talking a little smack because so many of my friends already are jabbed)). I know most people got their jabs early on.  I understand that desire to get back to normal, trust me.  Now it looks like this funny guy Miguel with his little smiley smirk thinks he can go around forcing kids to get the jab or no soccer Senior year.  No prom for senior year.  No jab,No social life.  My dd will be put to the test.  I told her I totally understand peer pressure and whatever you decide sweetie I will be here regardless.  However, your old man will not kneel to their experiment with my body.  It's mental abuse at it's worse and I can say 100% a redline has been drawn for me as a free man.  It's on folks.  This is becoming entertaining in one sense and sick in my head in another sense.  This is what happens when you cheat and get caught by the MILITARY!!!!  Anchor lady say's maybe Miguel can help us all "see the light."  Miguel knows what's best he says!!!  We all get to choose the Jab life or freedom.  Jaba Jaba doo!!!!


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 6, 2021)

crush said:


> Check this out Evil Goalie & Bruddah.  Jet lands on a street in MI for training exercise.  I hear this the first time ever a jet has landed on a hwy in the States.  I guess it's just some normal training exercise that the Air Force does from time to time.  I can;t wait until they start landing in OC to show us all the latest exercises.  Make sure to wave as they fly by if you see one or two


I imagine that is what they will do for the more surgical strikes in rural areas.  Here in the IE we've got the big C-17s that practice touch and goes at March AFB.  I think the plan is to have them land right on I-215, open up that cavernous cargo bay door, and herd the traffic inside.  Sort out the unvaxxed, strap them onto gurneys, and give them the jab right on the spot.  Biden and Newsom have already signed the order, and they are just trying to figure out how to pry magnetized people off the inside of the plane to clear space for the next load. No point in watching the skies.  Once one of those babies is on a low angle approach trajectory, you'll feel it coming.  You'll be stuck in traffic and the only thing you can do is get your paperwork together.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Like IFRs for example.


IFR's are the context.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 6, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> I imagine that is what they will do for the more surgical strikes in rural areas.  Here in the IE we've got the big C-17s that practice touch and goes at March AFB.  I think the plan is to have them land right on I-215, open up that cavernous cargo bay door, and herd the traffic inside.  Sort out the unvaxxed, strap them onto gurneys, and give them the jab right on the spot.  Biden and Newsom have already signed the order, and they are just trying to figure out how to pry magnetized people off the inside of the plane to clear space for the next load. No point in watching the skies.  Once one of those babies is on a low angle approach trajectory, you'll feel it coming.  You'll be stuck in traffic and the only thing you can do is get your paperwork together.


Perhaps they come by with a giant aerial magnet.  All the vaccinated people stick to the magnet, and the SWAT teams move in with vaccine rifles to innoculate whoever is left.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> I imagine that is what they will do for the more surgical strikes in rural areas.  Here in the IE we've got the big C-17s that practice touch and goes at March AFB.  I think the plan is to have them land right on I-215, open up that cavernous cargo bay door, and herd the traffic inside.  Sort out the unvaxxed, strap them onto gurneys, and give them the jab right on the spot.  Biden and Newsom have already signed the order, and they are just trying to figure out how to pry magnetized people off the inside of the plane to clear space for the next load. No point in watching the skies.  Once one of those babies is on a low angle approach trajectory, you'll feel it coming.  You'll be stuck in traffic and the only thing you can do is get your paperwork together.


No need to land.  A low pass should suck up the magnetized in to those four F-117 Pratt and Whitney's.  Operation Red Cloud they're calling it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Perhaps they come by with a giant aerial magnet.  All the vaccinated people stick to the magnet, and the SWAT teams move in with vaccine rifles to innoculate whoever is left.


Hope the flight crew isn't magnetized.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 6, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Perhaps they come by with a giant aerial magnet.  All the vaccinated people stick to the magnet, and the SWAT teams move in with vaccine rifles to innoculate whoever is left.


Like the accompanying rapture imagery.  Might bump up the vaxx rate.  Some prosthetics and surgical implants might would increase the false positive rate, but might as well go big tent.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 6, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> No need to land.  A low pass should suck up the magnetized in to those four F-117 Pratt and Whitney's.  Operation Red Cloud they're calling it.


Nothing a bit of commonsense NPI retrofitting couldn't fix.  Intake fatality ratio should be pretty negligible. I would, however, recommend a good set of aviation headphones for the ride.  I find myself preferring the landing/rounding up imagery.  Borrow a page from the Chicago School.  A little shock doctrine to shake things up and implement some modest socioeconomic change.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Nothing a bit of commonsense NPI retrofitting couldn't fix.  Intake fatality ratio should be pretty negligible. I would, however, recommend a good set of aviation headphones for the ride.  I find myself preferring the landing/rounding up imagery.  Borrow a page from the Chicago School.  A little shock doctrine to shake things up and implement some modest socioeconomic change.


A modest 3.5 Trillion of socioeconomic change.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

*NCLA Sues GMU Officials Over Their Refusal to Recognize Prof.’s Naturally-Acquired Covid Immunity*
Aug 4, 2021 | COVID-19, Press Releases

*Washington, DC (August 4, 2021)* – George Mason University (GMU) is threatening employees with disciplinary action that includes “unpaid leave or possible loss of employment” if they don’t comply with the public university’s vaccine mandate. Late last night, the New Civil Liberties Alliance, a nonpartisan, nonprofit civil rights group, filed a complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia on behalf of Antonin Scalia Law School Professor Todd Zywicki against GMU’s unconstitutional reopening policy for the Fall 2021 semester. The policy requires all unvaccinated faculty and staff members, including those who can demonstrate natural immunity through recovery from a prior Covid-19 infection, to not only disclose their vaccination status as “a prerequisite for eligibility for any merit pay increases,” but also be forced into choosing between their health and personal autonomy and suffering serious detriment to their professional careers.

Professor Zywicki has recovered from Covid-19 and thereby acquired robust natural immunity, as confirmed in multiple positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests during the past year. Professor Zywicki’s immunologist, Dr. Hooman Noorchashm, has advised him that, based on his personal health and immunity status, it is medically unnecessary to get a Covid-19 vaccine—and that it violates medical ethics to order unnecessary procedures. Affidavits from Drs. Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff, and Noorchashm explain that undergoing a full vaccination course creates a risk of harm and provides no benefit either to Prof. Zywicki or the GMU community.

To remain unvaccinated without facing disciplinary action, Professor Zywicki must obtain an exemption to work at home. Otherwise, he must comply with punitive masking, testing, and social-distancing requirements, while facing the prospect of disciplinary action, including termination of employment and lost eligibility for raises. These requirements diminish Professor Zywicki’s efficacy in performing his professional responsibilities; thus, the policy coerces him into receiving the vaccine. In addition, the policy represents an unconstitutional condition being applied to Professor Zywicki’s rights to bodily integrity and informed medical choice.

As an administrative unit of the Commonwealth of Virginia, GMU has no compelling state interest in overriding Professor Zywicki’s personal autonomy by effectively forcing him to receive a vaccine or suffer adverse professional consequences. Because of his natural immunity, Prof. Zywicki already has the same or better antibody levels than a vaccine would give him. In fact, his immunity status makes him far better protected—and less likely to spread the virus—than others on GMU’s campus who have taken one of the inferior foreign vaccines (_e.g._, Sinovac). As a result, GMU’s arbitrary reopening policy infringes upon Professor Zywicki’s rights under the Ninth and Fourteenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitution—including his rights to due process of law.

The reopening policy also conflicts with federal law. None of the vaccines approved for use in the U.S. has received full Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval. Rather, they have only been granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) status, which means anyone offered the vaccine may withhold their informed consent. The policy thus conflicts with the EUA statute and thereby violates the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution, which dictates that a state or local law is preempted when it creates “an obstacle to the accomplishment and execution of the full purposes and objectives of Congress.”

NCLA urges the Court to issue a declaratory judgment that GMU’s reopening policy infringes Prof. Zywicki’s right to bodily integrity and to refuse unnecessary medical treatment; that it represents an unconstitutional condition that also denies him due process of law; and that it conflicts with the federal EUA statute and thus violates the Supremacy Clause. For these reasons, NCLA also asks the course to enjoin enforcement of the policy.

*NCLA released the following statements:

“George Mason University’s arbitrary, irrational, and unscientific policy forces our client, a tenured law school professor who has devoted his life to serving his community and his country, to ignore the medical advice of his own doctor. Receiving the vaccine would provide neither Professor Zywicki nor the GMU community any benefit, since he already has demonstrable, robust natural immunity.* GMU’s attempt to interfere with Professor Zywicki’s bodily autonomy, with no legitimate rationale for doing so, not only violates medical ethics, but also fundamental rights protected in the Ninth and Fourteenth Amendments to the United States Constitution.”
— *Jenin Younes, Litigation Counsel, NCLA

“George Mason University’s policy is indefensible from a medical standpoint, violates our client’s constitutional rights, and deprives him of due process of law. Common sense and medical science should underpin GMU’s actions. Both have gone missing with this latest effort to force a distinguished professor to take a vaccine that he does not need—not for his own protection nor for anyone else’s safety at Scalia Law School.”*
— *Harriet Hageman, Senior Litigation Counsel, NCLA*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

MainAll NewsTechnology & HealthNatural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection?

*
Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection?*
*Nearly 40% of new COVID patients were vaccinated - compared to just 1% who had been infected previously.*

More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases. 

Roughly 40% of new cases – or more than 3,000 patients – involved people who had been infected despite being vaccinated. 

With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID.

By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection produces B-cell responses that continue to evolve for at least one year. During that time, memory B cells express increasingly broad and potent antibodies that are resistant to mutations found in variants of concern1. As a result, vaccination of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) convalescent individuals with currently available mRNA vaccines produces high levels of plasma neutralizing activity against all variants tested1, 2. Here, we examine memory B cell evolution 5 months after vaccination with either Moderna (mRNA-1273) or Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) mRNA vaccines in a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 naïve individuals. Between prime and boost, memory B cells produce antibodies that evolve increased neutralizing activity, but there is no further increase in potency or breadth thereafter. Instead, memory B cells that emerge 5 months after vaccination of naïve individuals express antibodies that are equivalent to those that dominate the initial response. We conclude that memory antibodies selected over time by natural infection have greater potency and breadth than antibodies elicited by vaccination. These results suggest that boosting vaccinated individuals with currently available mRNA vaccines would produce a quantitative increase in plasma neutralizing activity but not the qualitative advantage against variants obtained by vaccinating convalescent individuals. 

New Results Antibody Evolution after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccination Alice Cho, Frauke Muecksch, Dennis Schaefer-Babajew, Zijun Wang, Shlomo Finkin, Christian Gaebler, Victor Ramos, Melissa Cipolla, Marianna Agudelo, Eva Bednarski, Justin DaSilva, Irina Shimeliovich, Juan Dizon, Mridushi Daga, Katrina Millard, Martina Turroja, Fabian Schmidt, Fengwen Zhang, Tarek Ben Tanfous, Mila Jankovic, Thiago Y. Oliveria, Anna Gazumyan, Marina Caskey, Paul D. Bieniasz, Theodora Hatziioannou, Michel C. Nussenzweig


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

*Why COVID-19 Vaccines Should Not Be Required for All Americans*
Dr. Marty Makary: I’m pro-vaccine but blanket requirements outside of health care go too far.

By U.S. News Staff

Aug. 5, 2021, at 5:18 p.m.

The notion that we have to vaccinate every living, walking American – and eventually every newborn – in order to control the pandemic is based on the false assumption that the risk of dying from COVID-19 is equally distributed in the population. It's not. We have always known that it's very hard for the virus to hurt someone who is young and healthy. And that's still the case. While vaccine requirements for health care workers make sense, we would never extend those requirements outside of health care for, say, the flu shot. We'd simply state to the public: Those who avoid the flu shot do so at their own risk.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

Also: Some people already have 'natural immunity' – that is, immunity from prior COVID infection. During every month of this pandemic, I've had debates with other public researchers about the effectiveness and durability of natural immunity. I've been told that natural immunity could fall off a cliff, rendering people susceptible to infection. But here we are now, over a year and a half into the clinical experience of observing patients who were infected, and natural immunity is effective and going strong. And that's because with natural immunity, the body develops antibodies to the entire surface of the virus, not just a spike protein constructed from a vaccine. The power of natural immunity was recently affirmed in an Israeli study, which found a 6.7 times greater level of protection among those with natural immunity vs. those with vaccinated immunity.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

*Despite ‘Delta’ Alarmism, US COVID Deaths Are at Lowest Level Since March 2020, Harvard and Stanford Professors Explain*
Far more people were dying from COVID-19 months ago as we were winding down restrictions than are dying today as some call to reinstate them.
*Wednesday, July 28, 2021*



Now, some would cite rising COVID-19 case counts or hospitalizations in certain parts of the country as evidence that the pandemic is indeed once again spiraling out of control. But many COVID-19 cases recorded as positive are either asymptomatic or come with very mild symptoms—especially the cases confirmed among vaccinated individuals—so high case counts are not necessarily proof of a serious problem. Hospitalizations are concerning, yes, but primarily insofar as they lead to high numbers of deaths, which, thankfully, is not the case so far with the Delta variant. 

Others would say that deaths are a “lagging indicator” that come in several weeks after the increased spread of the disease. But the Delta variant has been spreading in the US for months now, and deaths have remained relatively flat, in part due to widespread vaccination. 

“It is striking that COVID mortality is at such low levels despite the fact that we are seeing an increase in cases of late,” Stanford Professor of Medicine Dr. Jay Bhattacharya tells FEE. “By immunizing the elderly and many other vulnerable people, we have provided them with excellent protection against severe disease in case they get infected. Also contributing is widespread natural immunity from recovered COVID patients. Though cases may rise, deaths will no longer follow in proportion.  We have effectively defanged the disease with our successful vaccination rollout.”


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

*Mask Mandate Reinstated in San Francisco—as Daily COVID Deaths Hit Zero*
Mask orders have the effect of keeping the public in a perpetual state of emergency—and that might be the whole point.
*Wednesday, August 4, 2021

https://fee.org/articles/mask-mandate-reinstated-in-san-francisco-as-daily-covid-deaths-hit-zero/*

*Why the Leviathan Loves Crisis*
Many will argue that mask requirements are not overly invasive measures, and therefore are prudent as a mere precaution. After all, the case can be made that masks can offer protection against COVID-19 and help us wind down the pandemic sooner.

The problem is there’s a vast distance between recommending a policy for protection and mandating one. And as Washington, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser recently demonstrated, many public officials seem more fond of mask mandates than actually wearing masks themselves in social situations.

Additionally, mask orders have the effect of keeping the public in a state of emergency. As Stanford Professor of Medicine Dr. Jay Bhattacharya recently told FEE, there seems to be a reluctance on the part of many to admit the pandemic is all but over.

“We should be declaring a great and resounding success,” Bhattacharya told FEE’s Brad Polumbo. “The COVID emergency is over. We still need to take COVID seriously, and there are still vulnerable people here and abroad left to vaccinate. But we can start to treat it as one disease among many that afflict people rather than an all-consuming threat.”

This reluctance should come as little surprise. History shows that public officials struggle mightily to relinquish powers claimed during periods of emergency.

In his classic book _Crisis and Leviathan_, economist Robert Higgs noted that crises served as some of the biggest government power grabs in modern history. The New Deal was born out of the crisis of the Great Depression. The War on Terror and the Patriot Act were the rotten fruits of the 9-11 attacks. It was not accidental that these massive expansions of government followed crises.

“‘Emergencies’ have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have eroded,” the Nobel-Prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek once observed. “And once they are suspended it is not difficult for anyone who has assumed emergency powers to see to it that the emergency will persist.”


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

WASHINGTON—The Biden administration Tuesday announced a new federal moratorium on evictions, bowing to pressure from progressive Democrats to revive lapsed tenant protections despite White House officials saying they lacked the legal authority to do so.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s ban targets areas that have experienced “substantial or high” levels of Covid-19 transmission and is expected to cover more than 80% of U.S. counties.

The action aims to buy states and localities more time to distribute about $47 billion in rental assistance designed to help tenants harmed by the pandemic who have fallen behind on their rent. As of June 30, just $3 billion of that money had reached tenants and landlords.

Bye Bye 5th Amendment


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 6, 2021)

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/communication/Signed-CDC-Eviction-Order.pdf

What a piece of work this is.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> A modest 3.5 Trillion of socioeconomic change.


Oh, once they attain a plastic state I think they have a pretty good idea where to go for the money.  Casting away stones, gathering stones together, it's like Ecclesiastes, something?


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

I was considering starting a new thread called something like "Covid Karma" just listing those critics of covid-prevention policies who subsequently became ill with the disease, but then I realized I didn't want to spend all day looking for morbid stories.


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> I was considering starting a new thread called something like "Covid Karma" just listing those critics of covid-prevention policies who subsequently became ill with the disease, but then I realized I didn't want to spend all day looking for morbid stories.


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

I want to introduce Arinya.  Amazing lady originally from Thailand who is trying to do the right thing and keep everyone safe. This was in 90 degree heat at the beach the other day.  I was a life guard back in the day so I needed to help her out big time.  I spoke to her and got permission to share a few health tips about this and that and she said she was confused with the "law."  Poor thing didnt understand the guidance put forth and is just doing her part she says.  I did tell her that it would be for own well being to take off mask 6 feet a way but she said she doesn't want delta either.  She already got Jabbed twice she said.  She took off mask as we were leaving and she thanked us for helping her with a thumbs up


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

I remember back in the old days when our family American Dr told us to just relax and chill for 15 days so we can slow the spread.  At the time he said masks are completely use less.  18 months later, and oh boy, we have AF Jets and Blackhawks landing on our streets for exercise.  Espola actually thinks their looking for me and my wife.  Let's see what happens.  Buckle friends


----------



## dad4 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> *Mask Mandate Reinstated in San Francisco—as Daily COVID Deaths Hit Zero*
> Mask orders have the effect of keeping the public in a perpetual state of emergency—and that might be the whole point.
> *Wednesday, August 4, 2021
> 
> ...


Huh.

So, with a mask mandate and a 70% vaccination rate, SF has zero daily covid deaths.

Meanwhile, with no mask mandates and a 35% vaccination rate, Arkansas has about 20 daily covid deaths.

You'd almost think there is some kind of link there.


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Huh.
> 
> So, with a mask mandate and a 70% vaccination rate, SF has zero daily covid deaths.
> 
> ...


Maybe.  Let's see.

State of Arkansas IFR .0072

County of San Francisco IFR  .0051

Three largest counties in Arkansas with a population of 891k+ has an IFR of .0097 compared to San Francisco's 874k+ at .0051.

Apples to Apples.....


----------



## dad4 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Maybe.  Let's see.
> 
> State of Arkansas IFR .0072
> 
> ...


I don't think you'll be able to find a high vaccination rate city with a high IFR for current infections.

You see, the vaccine is designed to lower IFR.  

You won't be able to find a place with universal masks, 80% adult Pfizer/moderna vax rate, and over 5 daily covid deaths per million people.  Go look.  I'll wait.

Plenty of low vax rate, mask optional places with high deaths rates, though.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> I was considering starting a new thread called something like "Covid Karma" just listing those critics of covid-prevention policies who subsequently became ill with the disease, but then I realized I didn't want to spend all day looking for morbid stories.


  Start the thread.  I'll take care of the morbidity without the stories. Here is your first post.  .00something.  Takes all the emotion out of it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't think you'll be able to find a high vaccination rate city with a high IFR for current infections.
> 
> You see, the vaccine is designed to lower IFR.


The immune system is designed to lower IFR as well.  Only better when we look at low vax to high vax areas of comparable sizes.  



dad4 said:


> You won't be able to find a place with universal masks, 80% adult Pfizer/moderna vax rate, and over 5 daily covid deaths per million people.  Go look.  I'll wait.
> 
> Plenty of low vax rate, mask optional places with high deaths rates, though.


Funny you picked Arkansas.  They have 8 deaths, not 20 for comparable population size to SF.  Less than half for a population that is half as vax'd as SF if you want to link anything.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

“‘Emergencies’ have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have eroded,” the Nobel-Prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek once observed. “And once they are suspended it is not difficult for anyone who has assumed emergency powers to see to it that the emergency will persist.”


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

Those of you who dismiss as unwarranted the warnings issued by those of us who worry about government officials using fear of Covid as an occasion to seize dangerous powers might wish to read this piece by Scott Shackford. A slice:



> *L.A. City Council President Nury Martinez and Councilman Mitch O’Farrell have **introduced a motion* instructing the city attorney to draft an ordinance requiring people in Los Angeles to provide proof of at least one vaccine dose in order to enter any indoor spaces “including but not limited to restaurants, bars, retail establishments, fitness centers, spas, and entertainment centers such as stadiums, concert venues, and movie theaters.”





> There is no actual scientific or safety justification for such a demand. The motion itself notes that more than 70 percent of Los Angeles County residents over the age of 16 have gotten at least one vaccine dose. *Hospitalizations and deaths in Los Angeles due to COVID-19 are indeed rising again, but they’re nowhere near where they were before vaccines became available. Hospitalizations won’t reach that spot again precisely because more than 70 percent of residents are at least partly vaccinated*


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Those of you who dismiss as unwarranted the warnings issued by those of us who worry about government officials using fear of Covid as an occasion to seize dangerous powers might wish to read this piece by Scott Shackford. A slice:


Big Party going on at Marthas....lol


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

*16 Days ago Joe said, "You're not going to get Covid if you take these vaccinations."  *

Stop blaming others for getting sick all the time, moo!!!

I talked with a super nice dad yesterday and all was good until.....  He did not believe my wife and i were 54 and 50.  He's in a rough spot physically and emotionally.  Has all the shots and wears a mask at work and is not happy.  I would say 289+ weight and only 5 11'.  He asked us our secret and I told him, "stopped eating meat bro."  The he goes, "oh man, I can;t do that" and just kind of walked away in a weird kind of way.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> “‘Emergencies’ have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have eroded,” the Nobel-Prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek once observed. “And once they are suspended it is not difficult for anyone who has assumed emergency powers to see to it that the emergency will persist.”


Wasn't that the advice he gave Pinochet?  It's a feature not a bug.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> The immune system is designed to lower IFR as well.  Only better when we look at low vax to high vax areas of comparable sizes.
> 
> Funny you picked Arkansas.  They have 8 deaths, not 20 for comparable population size to SF.  Less than half for a population that is half as vax'd as SF if you want to link anything.


Ok.  0 in SF compared to 8 daily deaths in Arkansas.  Or 20 in Arkansas versus 0 in SF, depending on which population size is your default.

Sounds like the mask + vaccine plan has fewer covid deaths than the no mask + no vaccine plan.

Any luck finding a highly vaccinated city with high daily deaths?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ok.  0 in SF compared to 8 daily deaths in Arkansas.  Or 20 in Arkansas versus 0 in SF, depending on which population size is your default.
> 
> Sounds like the mask + vaccine plan has fewer covid deaths than the no mask + no vaccine plan.
> 
> Any luck finding a highly vaccinated city with high daily deaths?


Good luck attempting to have a rational conversation with that one.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> comparable sizes.


Ah, see that's the thing.  If you want to weaponize IFR measurements you should play by the same rules as those who are trying to get real epidemiological data.  What sort of sample size do you need?  What is the sampling density? What is the time period?  What is the age structure of the sample population (that was likely a factor in Sweden's big up front mortality hit that Twitter Science seems to forget about for example)?  Are you really doing an IFR calculation or just using cases as the denominator?  Context.  Here we see it starting to creep into play when you realize you can't plug 0 into the ratio.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> I was considering starting a new thread called something like "Covid Karma" just listing those critics of covid-prevention policies who subsequently became ill with the disease, but then I realized I didn't want to spend all day looking for morbid stories.


Wow the fact you even thunk it shows what a horrible human being you are.  We’re all eventually going to get it. At a minimum you’d think you’d limit your search to antivaxxers who subsequently came to acknowledge they made an error but guess that’s not you…no limiting principles. 

My besties step daughter just came down with covid. Double vaxxed. Always wears a work supplies n 95 when she goes out even walking.  Doesn’t fly, doesn’t do bars or indoor dining, doesn’t go to the gym anymore. Probably caught it at work. Despite everyone who fell ill being masked gave it to her double vaxxed cousin and double vaxxed uncle at an outdoor bbq where everyone was masked except eating.  She and the cous in 20s had the sniffles for 4 days (wouldn’t have know if hadn’t tested for work). Uncle in his 50s more ill like the flu with fever and cough but at day 10 improving and no breathing or hospital problems.  Bestie was at same bbq with her Hubbie but they were both unmasked and have natural immunity and did not come down with it, despite step daughter coming to shelter in place with them once confirmed positive.


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow the fact you even thunk it shows what a horrible human being you are.  We’re all eventually going to get it. At a minimum you’d think you’d limit your search to antivaxxers who subsequently came to acknowledge they made an error but guess that’s not you…no limiting principles.


I don't see that at all.  To me, the horrible human beings in this issue are those who campaign against common sense and science for selfish or political reasons.  I was thinking of nominating as my first self-induced victim DIck Ferrel, a Florida radio personality who declared the vaccine to be poisonous, and then died from covid a few weeks later.









						Right Wing Radio Host, Anti-Vaxxer, and Trump Supporter Dick Ferrell Dies From COVID-19.
					

As the Queen songs says, “Another one bites the dust.” Dick Farrell Death – Obituary, Anti-Vaccination Florida-based radio host And Trump Supporter Dies Of Covid Dick Farrell, Newsmax Radio host and Trump supporter, has passed away due to Covid...




					www.dailykos.com
				




If that makes me a horrible person, then just ignore what I have to say on the subject.  And maybe ignore him, too, obviously.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ok.  0 in SF compared to 8 daily deaths in Arkansas.  Or 20 in Arkansas versus 0 in SF, depending on which population size is your default.
> 
> Sounds like the mask + vaccine plan has fewer covid deaths than the no mask + no vaccine plan.
> 
> Any luck finding a highly vaccinated city with high daily deaths?


Or you could compare the no mask high vaccinated places like in the uk v masked high vaccinated places and maybe realize the masks aren’t doing that much esp ag the delta???


----------



## dad4 (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Or you could compare the no mask high vaccinated places like in the uk v masked high vaccinated places and maybe realize the masks aren’t doing that much esp ag the delta???


The anti-mask loons like you have half a leg to stand on.  You're wrong, but it takes a little work to show it.

The anti-vax loons like BIZ have nothing.  You can logically throw their arguments in the trash after one look at the hospital admissions for vax versus unvax.

So, Biz, any luck finding a highly vaccinated city with above average covid deaths?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Wasn't that the advice he gave Pinochet?  It's a feature not a bug.


You mean because Pinochet was a big vaxx fan?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Ok.  0 in SF compared to 8 daily deaths in Arkansas.  Or 20 in Arkansas versus 0 in SF, depending on which population size is your default.
> 
> Sounds like the mask + vaccine plan has fewer covid deaths than the no mask + no vaccine plan.
> 
> Any luck finding a highly vaccinated city with high daily deaths?


No.  Makes me wonder why SF is masking up.  Lol!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Good luck attempting to have a rational conversation with that one.


Popped out of the bubble for a second did ya?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Ah, see that's the thing.  If you want to weaponize IFR measurements you should play by the same rules as those who are trying to get real epidemiological data.  What sort of sample size do you need?  What is the sampling density? What is the time period?  What is the age structure of the sample population (that was likely a factor in Sweden's big up front mortality hit that Twitter Science seems to forget about for example)?  Are you really doing an IFR calculation or just using cases as the denominator?  Context.  Here we see it starting to creep into play when you realize you can't plug 0 into the ratio.


Real epidemiological data?  This pandemic event is being compared to itself.  When have we ever used PCR testing to shut down the world economy?  Maybe during the first SAR's?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The anti-mask loons like you have half a leg to stand on.  You're wrong, but it takes a little work to show it.
> 
> The anti-vax loons like BIZ have nothing.  You can logically throw their arguments in the trash after one look at the hospital admissions for vax versus unvax.
> 
> So, Biz, any luck finding a highly vaccinated city with above average covid deaths?


No.  But zero deaths sounds like a good reason to lose the mask. Lol!


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> You mean because Pinochet was a big vaxx fan?


Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. Pinochet was a books of leviticus and deuteronomy, the law of the jungle and the sea are your only teachers type of guy.  Dylan said that song got away from him and became its own monster. not the first time in history. probably not the last.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. Pinochet was a books of leviticus and deuteronomy, the law of the jungle and the sea are your only teachers type of guy.  Dylan said that song got away from him and became its own monster. not the first time in history. probably not the last.


He sounds like a true believer?  Did he know?


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Real epidemiological data?  This pandemic event is being compared to itself.  When have we ever used PCR testing to shut down the world economy?  Maybe during the first SAR's?


No.  IFR is meant to provide an intrinsic value for a given pathological agent.  You can track it over time or bin it into different components of a population but it is best measured across large sets of data precisely to normalize for the differences you are wanting to highlight.  Otherwise you can just think of IFRs being draw up by a redistricting committee.  Draw the boundaries for the calculation across whatever sampling set, density, geographic region time periods etc until you flip a ratio of voters one way or another. 

That does not mean there are not interesting and likely informative differences in susceptibility between different peoples, exposure patterns and the like.  For example, since you seem interested in the interface between innate and acquired immunity, Twitter Science points to both Sweden and India being success stories for a non-intervention approach to CoV-2.  Sweden has a sero-positivity of maybe low 20% while India has a sero-positivity of upper 60% something like that.  Assuming that is not simply a reflection of delta vs earlier variants, its quite possibly saying something about immunological responses in the underlying populations.  There are interesting hypotheses for what that could be.  

And I agree there is an issue about PCR case positive vs how one wants to define an infection.  The CDC IMO did not do themselves any favors with their latest release.  Most of it we already knew and the potentially new stuff was confusing.


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't see that at all.  To me, the horrible human beings in this issue are those who campaign against common sense and science for selfish or political reasons.  I was thinking of nominating as my first self-induced victim DIck Ferrel, a Florida radio personality who declared the vaccine to be poisonous, and then died from covid a few weeks later.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Cruel man you truly are Uncle Espola.  Most of my friends WHO took jab have fallen ill at one time or another sense taking last jab.  All of them will not take booster, trust me.  No one has gone to the hospital or ICU or to the Coroner that I know personally over the last 18 months.  I always get second hand or even third hand gossip, which we all take with a grain of salt.  All my homeless friends I help from time to time are doing awesome. Food & cloths and beach cave and super happy actually.  

Dr. Espola- Medical Examiner/Coroner & Uncle


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> He sounds like a true believer?  Did he know?


As much as Hayek and company knew.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The anti-mask loons like you have half a leg to stand on.  You're wrong, but it takes a little work to show it.
> 
> The anti-vax loons like BIZ have nothing.  You can logically throw their arguments in the trash after one look at the hospital admissions for vax versus unvax.
> 
> So, Biz, any luck finding a highly vaccinated city with above average covid deaths?


I thought it just involves prayer to the mask god. ^\_(;?)_/^   The funny thing is you don’t recognize your unflappable faith in masks is the same as his in natural immunity.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> I don't see that at all.  To me, the horrible human beings in this issue are those who campaign against common sense and science for selfish or political reasons.  I was thinking of nominating as my first self-induced victim DIck Ferrel, a Florida radio personality who declared the vaccine to be poisonous, and then died from covid a few weeks later.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Bit ghoulish but you do you. I’m just happy you are finally showing us all your true self.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> No.  But zero deaths sounds like a good reason to lose the mask. Lol!


Which is the case for 59 of Arkansas 75 counties.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I thought it just involves prayer to the mask god. ^\_(;?)_/^   The funny thing is you don’t recognize your unflappable faith in masks is the same as his in natural immunity.


Well natural immunity is mandated.


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Bit ghoulish but you do you. I’m just happy you are finally showing us all your true self.


It's his Shadow/Carl coming out in full force Grace.  He decided to actually go fulltime or as some say, "all in" with hate in his true, FALSE self.  The true, TRUE self is loving, truthful, honest, stands for justice for ALL humans, protects all kids, respects woman and all the rest of humanity, regardless of social status ((Elitist)) and look down on everyone else types, which I call snobs!!!  I am Espola's worse nightmare.  Dude has zero empathy for humanity, which makes him obvious to the reader what he TRULY represents.  Two sides to pick.  Darkness or Light?  Eternity at both places is at stake, so choose carefully but choose you must, MOO and some old ancient text written long ago.  If this is all for chance, then this is a cruel summer!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

The Vikings, as of Tuesday, had the lowest percentage (70) of vaccinated players in the NFL.

"I’m done talking about vaccinations. I’m out of that business," coach Mike Zimmer said Wednesday.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> No.  IFR is meant to provide an intrinsic value for a given pathological agent.  You can track it over time or bin it into different components of a population but it is best measured across large sets of data precisely to normalize for the differences you are wanting to highlight.  Otherwise you can just think of IFRs being draw up by a redistricting committee.  Draw the boundaries for the calculation across whatever sampling set, density, geographic region time periods etc until you flip a ratio of voters one way or another.
> 
> That does not mean there are not interesting and likely informative differences in susceptibility between different peoples, exposure patterns and the like.  For example, since you seem interested in the interface between innate and acquired immunity, Twitter Science points to both Sweden and India being success stories for a non-intervention approach to CoV-2.  Sweden has a sero-positivity of maybe low 20% while India has a sero-positivity of upper 60% something like that.  Assuming that is not simply a reflection of delta vs earlier variants, its quite possibly saying something about immunological responses in the underlying populations.  There are interesting hypotheses for what that could be.
> 
> And I agree there is an issue about PCR case positive vs how one wants to define an infection.  The CDC IMO did not do themselves any favors with their latest release.  Most of it we already knew and the potentially new stuff was confusing.


So, one size fits all doesn't work.


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

This just in, not from CNN:  *Leading Israeli Health Official: Vaccinated Account For 95% of Severe and 85-90% of New Covid Hospitalizations; Vaccine Effectiveness is “Really Fading” *

This week Dr. Kobi Haviv, the medical director of Israel’s leading center for respiratory care, joined the country’s Channel 13 News to share an extremely concerning update regarding breakthrough cases among the vaccinated.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 7, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

crush said:


> This just in, not from CNN:  *Leading Israeli Health Official: Vaccinated Account For 95% of Severe and 85-90% of New Covid Hospitalizations; Vaccine Effectiveness is “Really Fading” *
> 
> This week Dr. Kobi Haviv, the medical director of Israel’s leading center for respiratory care, joined the country’s Channel 13 News to share an extremely concerning update regarding breakthrough cases among the vaccinated.


Yes, and no.  This was always going to happen the more vaxxed people you have just because the vaxxed have a bigger denominator.  The more accurate percentage would be to compare the percent of vaxxed to the percent unvaxxed hospitalized/severe.  That said, there is some truth to the idea that vaccine effectiveness is "really falling" at least as far as cases are concerned (deaths in Israel still on the floor).  Incidentally, Israel has also had a mask mandate in place throughout these last several weeks.  If the vaccine is failing to stop the transmission, so are the masks (at least this time around).









						Israel COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Israel Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




Incidentally there's the same issue in Hawaii.  .  One dose 75%, two doses 54% and a mask mandate with 98% compliance in place.









						Hawaii COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Hawaii COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Bit ghoulish but you do you. I’m just happy you are finally showing us all your true self.


My true self has always been opposed to liars and bullies.


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Clever vaccine coercion -- get free vaccine or get $500 weekly tests.









						How one Alabama college beat the vaccine passport ban
					

BSC outsmarts Arthur Orr. It wasn't that hard.




					www.al.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> My true self has always been opposed to liars and bullies.


That’s hilarious because on top of being a liar and a bully, you’ve shown yourself to be a ghoul and a comedian.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I thought it just involves prayer to the mask god. ^\_(;?)_/^   The funny thing is you don’t recognize your unflappable faith in masks is the same as his in natural immunity.


The funny thing is you continuing your attempt to paint those who utilize masks as a tool to help protect themselves and others from possible infection as a religion with a “god” and that somehow those people must all have “unflappable faith” that the mask is 100% effective and will save their lives. Dad and many others have laid out the seat belt scenario multiple times yet you persist in your attempt to belittle such efforts to help being safe. You also seem to have some issue with religion as you use the construct of it to mock people’s beliefs. You worry too much about others way of life, but then again you claim to be a conservative right? You people are always sticking your nose in other people’s interests.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s hilarious because on top of being a liar and a bully, you’ve shown yourself to be a ghoul and a comedian.


What’s he ever lied about? “Bully”? How’s that? Is it because he expects people to back their claims, show their work so to speak? t- party types do hate the idea of personal responsibility, when comes to them personally.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The funny thing is you continuing your attempt to paint those who utilize masks as a tool to help protect themselves and others from possible infection as a religion with a “god” and that somehow those people must all have “unflappable faith” that the mask is 100% effective and will save their lives. Dad and many others have laid out the seat belt scenario multiple times yet you persist in your attempt to belittle such efforts to help being safe. You also seem to have some issue with religion as you use the construct of it to mock people’s beliefs. You worry too much about others way of life, but then again you claim to be a conservative right? You people are always sticking your nose in other people’s interests.


Errr if dad 4 wants to wear a mask for the rest of his life I might roll my eyes at him but I’ll defend his right to. Where I have the issue is when you try to tell me I have to mask

And I wouldn’t have an issue with it if there were you know actual science behind it like rcts but so far we have: 1) some badly interpreted propaganda pieces such as by the cdc, 2) one study showing masks don’t protect you, 3) some mannequin observational devoid of real world experience and 4) the pre covid studies showing mixed results re respiratory viruses. Then you have the real world numbers that show even if masks did something at some point they are no longer doing very much and even Oster has admitted as much re cloth masks. Belief in something in the absence of proof (esp when real world experience contradicts the point) is faith, not science.  

I myself believed masks might have helped a little…against the delta I don’t think especially cloth masks are helping at all. And like I said n95 masked friend caught it despite double vaxxed and ultra scared/careful.


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace, Mr. Weirdo, Mr. Creeps and Chet the Cheater are one big Messy mess that ALL equal EOTL, or little devil boy.  Stuck in pride.  They only look left.  Brainwashed!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> What’s he ever lied about? “Bully”? How’s that? Is it because he expects people to back their claims, show their work so to speak? t- party types do hate the idea of personal responsibility, when comes to them personally.


“Nonsense”. “Coocoo” and “I’m a conservative” to name a handful.


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

*“Stop Treating The Unvaccinated Like The Enemy”–Mike Rowe Won’t Endorse COVID Vaccines*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> My true self has always been opposed to liars and bullies.


Link?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> “Nonsense”. “Coocoo” and “I’m a conservative” to name a handful.


You are ultra sensitive now aren’t you? Those responses have you feeling the victim of a “bully”? Yet I don’t remember you ever criticizing the donald’s “style” of talking about those he disagreed with? I guess that’s how t-party, trump-conservatives roll . . . again with the no personal responsibility.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 7, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> So, one size fits all doesn't work.


No. There is going to be some sort of distribution of risk throughout a population to an agent with a given IFR. The field of epidemiology is totally predicatetotal risk of the population, the total area under the curve.  But there is still a distribution.  Deliberate exposure to the agent is one such mechanism and has been practiced for centuries.  In ancient China they learned to distinguish smallpox infections arising from Variola minor (IFR ~ 1%) and use pus from those infections to establish immunity against the more virulent Variola major (IFR ~ 30%).  That's a uniform reduction in risk.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> You are ultra sensitive now aren’t you? Those responses have you feeling the victim of a “bully”? Yet I don’t remember you ever criticizing the donald’s “style” of talking about those he disagreed with? I guess that’s how t-party, trump-conservatives roll . . . again with the no personal responsibility.


False....I don't do much by way of politics on these boards (politics bore me) but I've been a critic of the vocabulary Trump used and the crass style of his rhetoric made me want to barf.  I did appreciate that, unlike the gentlemen Republicans, he was willing to get in the gutter and fight, but I disliked the way he did it.  I think, at least so far, DeSantis does it so much better.  The problem is that great unwashed masses (much as they like spectacles like mixed martial arts or wrestling) sometimes like things we elites find crass or vulgar so it remains to be seen if DeSantis can sell his brand to Trump Republicans.  He's the only one with a shot right now to unite the libertarian, Cruz conservative and Trumpian Republican wings of the party, so we'll see if he can do it.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> No. There is going to be some sort of distribution of risk throughout a population to an agent with a given IFR. The field of epidemiology is totally predicatetotal risk of the population, the total area under the curve.  But there is still a distribution.  Deliberate exposure to the agent is one such mechanism and has been practiced for centuries.  In ancient China they learned to distinguish smallpox infections arising from Variola minor (IFR ~ 1%) and use pus from those infections to establish immunity against the more virulent Variola major (IFR ~ 30%).  That's a uniform reduction in risk.


Part of the problem with this logic is that it lends credence to the belief that some people may have been better off exposed to the Alpha than the Delta, and (assuming arguendo the data out of Israel is correct that vaccine immunity fades in 6 months but natural immunity is more robust) if you believe there will be more variants that move away from vaccine coverage, some people might be better getting the Delta now than yet to be determined variant later.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

Prediction which I admit has very weak support so far (mostly just data from Israel some of which has come under mostly justified criticism) but I’ve seen enough of the pattern so far that I’m comfortable extrapolating out:  in the coming weeks it will be shown the mRNA vaccines are far less efficient in stopping illness from the delta and subsequent variants than previously believed.  It could be as low as 40% but I’m guessing maybe in the 60s.   They’ll drag their feet on revealing it and double up on masks (which is also stupid because they’ll be less effective too and cloth masks were already never that great). If 3 double vaxxed people in an outdoor bbq can get it from a double vaxxed person where they’re all wearing masks except to eat, no way the number is in the 80s (total of 9 attendees….4 of whom had natural immunity and none of those 4 fell ill…1 only double vaxxed not ill). Vaccines still great at protecting against serious illness and death (again in 3/4 Ill it’s just the sniffles)


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Part of the problem with this logic is that it lends credence to the belief that some people may have been better off exposed to the Alpha than the Delta, and (assuming arguendo the data out of Israel is correct that vaccine immunity fades in 6 months but natural immunity is more robust) if you believe there will be more variants that move away from vaccine coverage, some people might be better getting the Delta now than yet to be determined variant later.


I got it back in Jan, 2020.  Remember, I was visiting my pal up in Kirkland WA Grace? Yes, that place where the deaths and fear was first reported.  Also, the flu was insane at the time Grace.  My pal was sick before I came in Dec 2019.  Dude was gone, lights out for 6 days.  No contact.  Finally he called and he could barely talk. He lost taste.  No smell.  He said pins were poking him.  Anyway, I fly up there and back.  Both flights all had the same bat flu. I come home and I was horrible for four days and my wife even was sick for half a day.  She was way ahead of the curve.  I quit eating meat at this time.  My pal up in WA got the Jab twice and has been sick 3 times already and is feeling like shit today he told me.   He only eats meat and protein.  Now what?  Booster jab?  Dom got really sick. How you feeling bro these days and I mean that?  Jab or no jab if you dont mind if I ask?  General Flynn says if someone ask him if you got the jab and he wont answer, says none of your business.  Hippa, not Jabba


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Part of the problem with this logic is that it lends credence to the belief that some people may have been better off exposed to the Alpha than the Delta, and (assuming arguendo the data out of Israel is correct that vaccine immunity fades in 6 months but natural immunity is more robust) if you believe there will be more variants that move away from vaccine coverage, some people might be better getting the Delta now than yet to be determined variant later.


No. It does no such thing.  The principles of vaccination were established based on examples of broad mmune cross-reactivity.  The extent of such cross-reactivity and the ability of a virus to evolve away from immune detection (either from natural infection or vaccination) in a pandemic will vary based on the biology and how much virus is out there. Sometimes you'll get lucky and sometimes you won't.  And the kinetics of the sero-positivity stuff is kind of silly.  What matters are the memory T cells that were established and what fraction of those express neutralizing antibodies.  Direct analysis of this for one of the mRNA vaccines shows a higher fraction of neutralizing antibodies raised against the receptor-spike protein interface than with natural infection, probably due to conformational flexibility of the S protein produced by the vaccine.  That's probably why it is working pretty well so far. But that's not going to be the stuff that comes through social media feeds.


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> “Nonsense”. “Coocoo” and “I’m a conservative” to name a handful.


You have misstated my position on being a conservative (and it's not the first time).  Why is that?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> No. It does no such thing.  The principles of vaccination were established based on examples of broad mmune cross-reactivity.  The extent of such cross-reactivity and the ability of a virus to evolve away from immune detection (either from natural infection or vaccination) in a pandemic will vary based on the biology and how much virus is out there. Sometimes you'll get lucky and sometimes you won't.  And the kinetics of the sero-positivity stuff is kind of silly.  What matters are the memory T cells that were established and what fraction of those express neutralizing antibodies.  Direct analysis of this for one of the mRNA vaccines shows a higher fraction of neutralizing antibodies raised against the receptor-spike protein interface than with natural infection, probably due to conformational flexibility of the S protein produced by the vaccine.  That's probably why it is working pretty well so far. But that's not going to be the stuff that comes through social media feeds.


We’ll I’ll just say for the sake of everyone I hope you are right and the data out of Israel is wrong.  I have a bad feeling about this, however.


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s hilarious because on top of being a liar and a bully, you’ve shown yourself to be a ghoul and a comedian.


I have criticized you for making false statements.  That's not bullying.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> I have criticized you for making false statements.  That's not bullying.


Now you’re going for the ol double standard. Nice!


----------



## crush (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Now you’re going for the ol double standard. Nice!


He's using those old pony dog double standard trickery.  This guy is classic.  He will always be Eeyore to me.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

crush said:


> He's using those old pony dog double standard trickery.  This guy is classic.  He will always be Eeyore to me.


Being a tigger myself I have a hard time relating to the eeyores.  I’m bouncy wouncy bouncy wouncy fun fun fun fun fun.  The wonderful thing about tiggers is that I’m the only one.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Bit ghoulish but you do you. I’m just happy you are finally showing us all your true self.


Since his extreme "personality" got banned, it became too much strain for him to represent the others consistently. The anger bleeds over.


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Now you’re going for the ol double standard. Nice!


What does that mean?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> False....I don't do much by way of politics on these boards (politics bore me) but I've been a critic of the vocabulary Trump used and the crass style of his rhetoric made me want to barf.  I did appreciate that, unlike the gentlemen Republicans, he was willing to get in the gutter and fight, but I disliked the way he did it.  I think, at least so far, DeSantis does it so much better.  The problem is that great unwashed masses (much as they like spectacles like mixed martial arts or wrestling) sometimes like things we elites find crass or vulgar so it remains to be seen if DeSantis can sell his brand to Trump Republicans.  He's the only one with a shot right now to unite the libertarian, Cruz conservative and Trumpian Republican wings of the party, so we'll see if he can do it.


DeSantis’ lack of proper covid response won’t play well with the general public. His mini-me act does play well with the “HELL YEAH!” crowd.


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> False....I don't do much by way of politics on these boards (politics bore me) but I've been a critic of the vocabulary Trump used and the crass style of his rhetoric made me want to barf.  I did appreciate that, unlike the gentlemen Republicans, he was willing to get in the gutter and fight, but I disliked the way he did it.  I think, at least so far, DeSantis does it so much better.  The problem is that great unwashed masses (much as they like spectacles like mixed martial arts or wrestling) sometimes like things we elites find crass or vulgar so it remains to be seen if DeSantis can sell his brand to Trump Republicans.  He's the only one with a shot right now to unite the libertarian, Cruz conservative and Trumpian Republican wings of the party, so we'll see if he can do it.


"DeSantis does it so much better."  

I just wanted to make sure I didn't forget where this statement was made.

Right after "I don't do much by way of politics on these boards".


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> What’s he ever lied about? “Bully”? How’s that? Is it because he expects people to back their claims, show their work so to speak? t- party types do hate the idea of personal responsibility, when comes to them personally.


Oh pipe down…you epitomize everything you mock others for.  Does “T” pay rent for the space he occupies in your mind or do you just use him as a spark to try and light fires so you can bully and insult people online?

I’m sorry you were picked on so much in life that you get your rocks off insulting people online. 

Hope things turn around for you someday as I’m sure your “QTL” is getting shorter by the day.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> "DeSantis does it so much better."
> 
> I just wanted to make sure I didn't forget where this statement was made.
> 
> Right after "I don't do much by way of politics on these boards".


I was asked a direct question idiot so I answered.  There's the ol double standard again.  And what's funny is I was actually agreeing in part with Husker for a change.  Just face it man...you are a troll....nothing more.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> DeSantis’ lack of proper covid response won’t play well with the general public. His mini-me act does play well with the “HELL YEAH!” crowd.


It's the two heavy pro NPI governors, not De Santis that are in trouble right now.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Since his extreme "personality" got banned, it became too much strain for him to represent the others consistently. The anger bleeds over.


I like to think there is some universe where this is actually true.  Because a personality which can hold old Magoo espola, crazy EOTL, and classic troll Husker (not to mention the cleverness in all the wacky names) would be a) quite fearsome, and b) completely insane.  If that 1 individual could do dad4 as well it would be truly a sight to behold.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes, and no.  This was always going to happen the more vaxxed people you have just because the vaxxed have a bigger denominator.  The more accurate percentage would be to compare the percent of vaxxed to the percent unvaxxed hospitalized/severe.  That said, there is some truth to the idea that vaccine effectiveness is "really falling" at least as far as cases are concerned (deaths in Israel still on the floor).  Incidentally, Israel has also had a mask mandate in place throughout these last several weeks.  If the vaccine is failing to stop the transmission, so are the masks (at least this time around).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Further to this, Iceland is seeing its largest spike to date.  Low natural immunity, 92% single vaxx, 73% double vaxxed yet this...her immunity is an illusion.  They've also had a mask mandate now for a week so we'll get to see if it does any good there now as well (given Hawaii and Israel have had such success with masks)









						Iceland COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Iceland Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Further to this, Iceland is seeing its largest spike to date.  Low natural immunity, 92% single vaxx, 73% double vaxxed yet this...her immunity is an illusion.  They've also had a mask mandate now for a week so we'll get to see if it does any good there now as well (given Hawaii and Israel have had such success with masks)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


On the NPI side, now China and Australia are having trouble containing the Delta despite masks and very rigorous protocols








						China sees highest daily figure of COVID-19 patients in current outbreak
					

China reported on Friday its highest daily count of new COVID-19 patients in an outbreak that began in late July, fuelled by a surge in locally transmitted infections.




					www.reuters.com
				











						Australia reports record daily COVID cases
					

Australia recorded its highest daily record of COVID cases Saturday as the country’s most populous states reported 361 new cases of the Delta variant.




					nypost.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Prediction which I admit has very weak support so far (mostly just data from Israel some of which has come under mostly justified criticism) but I’ve seen enough of the pattern so far that I’m comfortable extrapolating out:  in the coming weeks it will be shown the mRNA vaccines are far less efficient in stopping illness from the delta and subsequent variants than previously believed.  It could be as low as 40% but I’m guessing maybe in the 60s.   They’ll drag their feet on revealing it and double up on masks (which is also stupid because they’ll be less effective too and cloth masks were already never that great). If 3 double vaxxed people in an outdoor bbq can get it from a double vaxxed person where they’re all wearing masks except to eat, no way the number is in the 80s (total of 9 attendees….4 of whom had natural immunity and none of those 4 fell ill…1 only double vaxxed not ill). Vaccines still great at protecting against serious illness and death (again in 3/4 Ill it’s just the sniffles)


O.k. Didn't think I'd be right so quick.    Yes, she mispoke....or did she????


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423422301882748929


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> No. There is going to be some sort of distribution of risk throughout a population to an agent with a given IFR. The field of epidemiology is totally predicatetotal risk of the population, the total area under the curve.  But there is still a distribution.  Deliberate exposure to the agent is one such mechanism and has been practiced for centuries.  In ancient China they learned to distinguish smallpox infections arising from Variola minor (IFR ~ 1%) and use pus from those infections to establish immunity against the more virulent Variola major (IFR ~ 30%).  That's a uniform reduction in risk.


How do you know it's a uniform reduction in risk?  Were both IFR's broken down by age groups back then too?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The funny thing is you continuing your attempt to paint those who utilize masks as a tool to help protect themselves and others from possible infection as a religion with a “god” and that somehow those people must all have “unflappable faith” that the mask is 100% effective and will save their lives. Dad and many others have laid out the seat belt scenario multiple times yet you persist in your attempt to belittle such efforts to help being safe. You also seem to have some issue with religion as you use the construct of it to mock people’s beliefs. You worry too much about others way of life, but then again you claim to be a conservative right? You people are always sticking your nose in other people’s interests.


When used correctly, wearing a seat belt reduces the risk of fatal injury to front seat passenger car occupants by *45%*, and risk of moderate-to-critical injury by 50%. For those riding in the rear of vans and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) during a car crash, rear seat belts are 73% better at preventing fatalities........That sounds about right.  

*Deaths*


A total of 22,697 drivers and passengers in passenger vehicles died in motor vehicle crashes in 2018.2
More than half (range: 51%-60%) of teens (13-19 years) and adults aged 20-44 years who died in crashes in 2018 were not buckled up at the time of the crash.
hope this helps Masker Du.


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's the two heavy pro NPI governors, not De Santis that are in trouble right now.


DeSantis is not in trouble?  What is the covid situation in Florida like right now?


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I like to think there is some universe where this is actually true.  Because a personality which can hold old Magoo espola, crazy EOTL, and classic troll Husker (not to mention the cleverness in all the wacky names) would be a) quite fearsome, and b) completely insane.  If that 1 individual could do dad4 as well it would be truly a sight to behold.


Don't panic -- It's just me here.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> DeSantis’ lack of proper covid response won’t play well with the general public. His mini-me act does play well with the “HELL YEAH!” crowd.


"Johnny I apologize.  I forgot you were there"


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> DeSantis is not in trouble?  What is the covid situation in Florida like right now?


     .0045!!!!!!!!!!  7 day average of course. .0033 7 days before that at a 7 day average. .0038 and so on.  Shall I go on? Last one .0058 on 7/15.  Guess what else happened? Cases more than tripled since 7/15!!  Shocking isn't it?


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I was asked a direct question idiot so I answered.  There's the ol double standard again.  And what's funny is I was actually agreeing in part with Husker for a change.  Just face it man...you are a troll....nothing more.


You have been using the "troll" accusation a lot lately.  Apparently, you don't know what that means.

Your most notable accusation today, however, was to call me a horrible person because I rationally decided not to start a thread about vaccine critics who got sick.  What would you have called me if I had actually had started the thread?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> You have been using the "troll" accusation a lot lately.  Apparently, you don't know what that means.
> 
> Your most notable accusation today, however, was to call me a horrible person because I rationally decided not to start a thread about vaccine critics who got sick.  What would you have called me if I had actually had started the thread?


The fact you even thought that way points to you being a horrible person. Then you couldn’t help yourself and back door actually started it. If you had done it right away you’d just be a monster and I wouldn’t have been shocked if you did.   

Embrace your inner troll. You do you.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> You have been using the "troll" accusation a lot lately.  Apparently, you don't know what that means.
> 
> Your most notable accusation today, however, was to call me a horrible person because I rationally decided not to start a thread about vaccine critics who got sick.  What would you have called me if I had actually had started the thread?


Oh for goodness sake Threadspola! Who gives a shit what he calls you?


----------



## N00B (Aug 7, 2021)

espola said:


> You have been using the "troll" accusation a lot lately.  Apparently, you don't know what that means.
> 
> Your most notable accusation today, however, was to call me a horrible person because I rationally decided not to start a thread about vaccine critics who got sick.  What would you have called me if I had actually had started the thread?


Um…N00B, who’s not spent that much time on the interwebs knows what a Troll is.

The kind of person who would wax philosophic or just consider <out loud and in a public forum> something that they would later find objectionable to be called out for.

Need more attention perhaps?


----------



## N00B (Aug 7, 2021)

Sometimes the image fits.


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The fact you even thought that way points to you being a horrible person. Then you couldn’t help yourself and back door actually started it. If you had done it right away you’d just be a monster and I wouldn’t have been shocked if you did.
> 
> Embrace your inner troll. You do you.


Thought police?


----------



## espola (Aug 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I was asked a direct question idiot so I answered.  There's the ol double standard again.  And what's funny is I was actually agreeing in part with Husker for a change.  Just face it man...you are a troll....nothing more.


The direct question was about t.  You did DeSantis all by yourself.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 8, 2021)

I'm not sure you want DeSantis as your standard bearer just yet.

The hospitalization curve in FL is pretty wicked.  Down to 13% ICU capacity to and falling quickly.

He's going to look pretty bad if things don't level off very soon.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I hope you are right


Don't. But I would say that, in a manipulative digital universe, real information does not tend to come to you.  You have to go to it.  For example, with respect to delta, the 13th round of the REACT project in the UK came out this week.  This will be from June-July of this year, so very much covering the delta peak.  The data is quite granular, and is derived from random sampling, which, as I understand it, is not the case for the data from Israel. Make of it what you will.  The architecture of the project is described here:









						Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission findings
					

The Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) programme is the largest, most significant piece of research looking at how the virus is s...




					www.imperial.ac.uk
				




Round 13 assessment is available as a pdf here





__





						Loading…
					





					spiral.imperial.ac.uk


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Were both IFR's broken down by age groups back then too?


No idea really.  There is a lot of scholarship so an answer may be out there.  For context, smallpox kills the kids, which tends to focus attention. At some point, somewhere, there must have been someone thinking, pustules like this-don't tend to die, pustules like this, die about a third of the time.  But they are both pustules.  So it iI take the not so bad pustule and expose my kid to it maybe they won't get the bad pustule. The motivation to make that leap. A fundamental human story.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> Don't panic -- It's just me here.


When people feel attacked they lash out at everyone and see conspiracies. The fact that the only “multi-aliases” posters turnout to be the extremist from the right is telling. They see ghosts, shadows of themselves.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The fact you even thought that way points to you being a horrible person. Then you couldn’t help yourself and back door actually started it. If you had done it right away you’d just be a monster and I wouldn’t have been shocked if you did.
> 
> Embrace your inner troll. You do you.


The irony of say a “family values” type getting caught with their pants down or a “fiscal conservative” wildly spending other people’s money or yes an anti-prevention type contracting that disease is something that stands out more than say Barney Frank hitting on a young man, but of course we know which story the “conservative media” would run with.


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)




----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

Doctor and former VP of Pfiz just spoke....


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Don't. But I would say that, in a manipulative digital universe, real information does not tend to come to you.  You have to go to it.  For example, with respect to delta, the 13th round of the REACT project in the UK came out this week.  This will be from June-July of this year, so very much covering the delta peak.  The data is quite granular, and is derived from random sampling, which, as I understand it, is not the case for the data from Israel. Make of it what you will.  The architecture of the project is described here:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If I’m reading it correct they are estimating protection against symptomatic infection and strong positive at around 60% which is where my intuition led me. A. My intuition is scary good some time. B. That’s a disaster for those who believe vaccinating everyone can make things go away. C. To determine what happens from here it’s critical to know the natural immunity effectiveness numbers.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I'm not sure you want DeSantis as your standard bearer just yet.
> 
> The hospitalization curve in FL is pretty wicked.  Down to 13% ICU capacity to and falling quickly.
> 
> He's going to look pretty bad if things don't level off very soon.


Oh I don’t know like newsom despite the npis in winter (or like where la is headed), or the Uk, or Czech Republic, or Sweden, or Spain, or russia or worst in world peru despite perpetual lockdown or test and trace South Korea or Iceland despite heaviest vaccination or Australia despite heavy lockdowns or China despite showing us how it’s done.  No one has been effective


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh I don’t know like newsom despite the npis in winter (or like where la is headed), or the Uk, or Czech Republic, or Sweden, or Spain, or russia or worst in world peru despite perpetual lockdown or test and trace South Korea or Iceland despite heaviest vaccination or Australia despite heavy lockdowns or China despite showing us how it’s done.  No one has been effective


Btw man I think in places to admire you are now down to pretty much fortress New Zealand and Taiwan (which even without the delta cant seem to fully get rid of it this time). Everywhere is a failure and yet somehow you think your masks and shuttering indoor dining would make a difference.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> The irony of say a “family values” type getting caught with their pants down or a “fiscal conservative” wildly spending other people’s money or yes an anti-prevention type contracting that disease is something that stands out more than say Barney Frank hitting on a young man, but of course we know which story the “conservative media” would run with.


Meh…I love those stories too and yeah I hate the conservative hypocrisy. My favorite hits though have always been the people like the Obamas that call for racially integrated schools and make themselves champions of the public schools and then send their kids to fancy private schools, or the covid hypocrisy in certain politicians and health experts such as locking down but going to French laundry, getting a haircut, going to a houseboat, flying to another state or country for vacay, going to the gym, or calling for masks and going maskless when cameras are off like at a baseball game. Or maybe hypocrisy might be bad in any political warrior, whether left or right


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> The direct question was about t.  You did DeSantis all by yourself.


I see you are trolling again. The question was re ts style which I contrasted to de Santis who seems to be able to hold it together better than trump without going into mental breakdown. If you can’t even agree that’s a positive well reason 352 why magoo is a troll.


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> * hypocrisy might be bad in any political warrior, whether left or right*


Boom!!!!  Left or Right?  No. AMERICA!!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I'm not sure you want DeSantis as your standard bearer just yet.
> 
> The hospitalization curve in FL is pretty wicked.  Down to 13% ICU capacity to and falling quickly.
> 
> He's going to look pretty bad if things don't level off very soon.


Btw Miami dade is 73% fully vaxxed in the over 18 and the mayor of Miami has defied de santis with a mask mandate.  It’s the worst hit in Florida right now with icu capacity down to 8%.


----------



## espola (Aug 8, 2021)




----------



## espola (Aug 8, 2021)

Dana Bash (CNN): "Some governors, like Ron DeSantis in Florida, Greg Abbott in Texas -- they're blocking imposing restrictions like mask mandates.  The virus is surging in those states, as in yours. You are a doctor, you are an official. Shouldn't local officials be allowed to make mask mandates?"

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA): "I'm a conservative.  You govern best when you govern closest to the people being governed. If a local community is having -- their ICU is full and people at the local schools see they've got to make sure they stay open because otherwise children will miss out for another year of school and they put in policies, then the local official should be listened to. That is a conservative principle."

Bash: "You disagree with Governor DeSantis?"

Cassidy:  "I do disagree with Governor DeSantis, Local officials should have control here. I don't want top-down from Washington, D.C. I don't want top-down from a governor's office. Sometimes in cases of national defense, things like that. But if my hospitals are full, vaccination rates are low and the infection rate is going crazy, local officials should be allowed to make those decisions."

CNN interview here --


----------



## espola (Aug 8, 2021)

T, exhibiting leadership on Fox News today --

"Well, first of all, could you imagine if I were president right now and we had this massive attack from the coronavirus, you know, now they like to call it, they have new names and they have other new names, but it's exactly what we had, we had the same thing.  If that were me, they would say 'what a horrible thing, what a horrible job.' These are numbers in some cases that are equivalent to what it was, but we don't hear that."

He hasn't lost a step.


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11323


You have fallen low into the abyss you little devil.  Wow, let's stay focused on the kids ((what happen to all the kids?)) and all the election fraud and the sting operation.  You're the biggest sore loser I have ever witnessed in Debate & Politics 101.  Grace and I have been trying to go to 201 and even higher level debate with you but because you lie and cheat, it's impossible to have a fair debate.  When you lose, you ignore or call folks coo coo.  Last years election sting by the military is what we should all be focused on, not the flu?  Nice cover and it was turned on you and your loser friends who manipulated great people to do your evil works.  Watermarked ballots?  The crack addict Mike will be doing a big show from Aug 10-12.  Offering you or any smartass $5,000,000 to prove his pros wrong.  It's sad a pillow guy is all we got because of bribes, blackmail and bullying.  No sense of right or wrong in your little brain that is filled with hate, division, cheating, lying, murder, blackmail, retaliation, intimidation, bully, disrespect, rude and that's just what we see in the light.  I don;t even want to imagine the shit your doing in the darkness.  Do you have any ounce of care for the kids?  Blame it on those white republicans who also happen to be not jabbed and 100% believe in God, freedom and asking basic health Q to the Docs before experiment is done on them and their children.  Do you see what this is really about?  You are 100% a non believer in the Lord and that's all this is about.  It's ok, I understand completely.  I remember you got all butt hurt when I shared about the story in the ancient text about how the asshole men were treating the females and only *they *could bring a woman who *they* caught in adultery.  Remember that?  That was when you said, "I have him on ignore."  You are the biggest lying hypocrite ever on the forum.  It's not tooooooo late to capitulate   Hurry hurry because time is running out.  it would be a miracle if you said sorry to me and Grace for all the evil you do and admitted your wrong doing.  Seriously.  I can also say sorry for being a little rough on you and a little judgmental at times.  We need peace man, don't be a Dick Espola.  Repent!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> T, exhibiting leadership on Fox News today --
> 
> He hasn't lost a step.


Because he never has lost his step.  Have you heard of the Theory of Devolution?


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

Adam Schiff wants to close the Bay down and Camp Delta.  You can't make this stuff up. 

*"We must close Guantanamo Bay detention facility ((Tribunal Court House)).  It can be done safely and it's continued operation is inconsistent with our commitment to the rule of law.  That's why I joined 72 colleagues to call on POTUS to fulfill his promise and close it's doors."  AS*

Lot's of flights and cruise ships dropping off folks I hear.  I have a buddy who knows his pal real well and they fly every week towards Cuba and back, like OC to SF on Delta Airlines.  He has a NDA that says if shares who the passengers are it's treason and death comes with sharing the NDA.  Now that's a gnarly NDA.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> O.k. Didn't think I'd be right so quick.    Yes, she mispoke....or did she????
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423422301882748929


This has been known (or at a minimum speculated) for some time.

So the vaxxed get and pass along the virus. 

Why get the vaxx? Because it severely reduces serious illnesses or death. Good stuff 

But...

What is the rationale for trying to limit non vaxxed into places (ie a passport)? The idea was to stop the spread. But if the vaxxed spread...there is no point in those restrictions.

This virus isn't going away regardless of vaxxed or not. We should admit that and move on.


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)




----------



## dad4 (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Oh I don’t know like newsom despite the npis in winter (or like where la is headed), or the Uk, or Czech Republic, or Sweden, or Spain, or russia or worst in world peru despite perpetual lockdown or test and trace South Korea or Iceland despite heaviest vaccination or Australia despite heavy lockdowns or China despite showing us how it’s done.  No one has been effective


You’re changing the topic.  We were talking about Florida.  

If Florida’s hospitalization curve keeps growing even 1 or 2 more weeks at the current growth rate, their hospitals will be overwhelmed.  DeSantis is betting very heavily that Delta is close to peak.   He has less than one doubling time before it happens.  If he is wrong, his nationally publicized anti-mask anti-vax policies ae going to make him look like an f’ing idiot.

Which is fair.


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re changing the topic.  We were talking about Florida.
> 
> If Florida’s hospitalization curve keeps growing even 1 or 2 more weeks at the current growth rate, their hospitals will be overwhelmed.  DeSantis is betting very heavily that Delta is close to peak.   He has less than one doubling time before it happens.  If he is wrong, his nationally publicized anti-mask anti-vax policies ae going to make him look like an f’ing idiot.
> 
> Which is fair.


I dont have time to do this but do this for me Dad and Espola.  Go to duckduckgo and type in.........you know what, forget it about it.  You sirs are brainwashed. My wife's cousin's friend has 4 kids Miami-Dade.  She can now take her school funds (($$$$$$ to spend for the best and right environment for kids & parents to choose to learn)) and shop for any school she wants for her four kids.  Husband bailed on the family 4 years ago. She works her ass off to provide and was getting nervous having her 14 year old teach online again or mask on the kids.  She can now shop for a private or charter or even home school community learning.  I know so many teachers looking to start their own private schools.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11323


CNN, Covid Command Center?  Did you manipulate this or is CNN really calling itself the Covid Command Center.  Who even watches CNN?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> You’re changing the topic.  We were talking about Florida.
> 
> If Florida’s hospitalization curve keeps growing even 1 or 2 more weeks at the current growth rate, their hospitals will be overwhelmed.  DeSantis is betting very heavily that Delta is close to peak.   He has less than one doubling time before it happens.  If he is wrong, his nationally publicized anti-mask anti-vax policies ae going to make him look like an f’ing idiot.
> 
> Which is fair.


He’s not anti vax. He’s come out repeatedly urging vaccination for the over 18. You are now just repeating d talking points.  He’s come under fire from anti vaxxed activists for doing that.  What he’s opposed is vax mandates. 

My point was whether your friends in Australia or de santis/Sweden eventually everywhere is going to end up the same.  And I’ll believe the hospital collapse story when we see it. We heard it repeatedly and in the west hasn’t happened, most recently St. Louis.   If it’s going to happen Mississippi is most likely to come close.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11323


10% white democrats????? Say it isn't so!!


----------



## dad4 (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He’s not anti vax. He’s come out repeatedly urging vaccination for the over 18. You are now just repeating d talking points.  He’s come under fire from anti vaxxed activists for doing that.  What he’s opposed is vax mandates.
> 
> My point was whether your friends in Australia or de santis/Sweden eventually everywhere is going to end up the same.  And I’ll believe the hospital collapse story when we see it. We heard it repeatedly and in the west hasn’t happened, most recently St. Louis.   If it’s going to happen Mississippi is most likely to come close.


Not hospital collapse. Just overwhelmed.  Delay patient care.  Release people earlier than is optimal.  
Reduce nursing staff per patient.  Leave patients at home because the hospital has no room.

You've seen it already.  LA did it last winter.









						Paramedics having some patients stay home as hospitals struggle with COVID-19 wave
					

Paramedics and emergency medical technicians are declining to transport some patients whom they might take to the hospital under ordinary circumstances.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> He’s not anti vax. He’s come out repeatedly urging vaccination for the over 18. You are now just repeating d talking points.  He’s come under fire from anti vaxxed activists for doing that.  What he’s opposed is vax mandates.
> 
> My point was whether your friends in Australia or de santis/Sweden eventually everywhere is going to end up the same.  And I’ll believe the hospital collapse story when we see it. We heard it repeatedly and in the west hasn’t happened, most recently St. Louis.   If it’s going to happen Mississippi is most likely to come close.


Desantis was relentless about getting his Senior Citz. Vaxxed.  Cuomo put infected folks in nursing homes.  Different approach to herding.


----------



## espola (Aug 8, 2021)

what-happened said:


> CNN, Covid Command Center?  Did you manipulate this or is CNN really calling itself the Covid Command Center.  Who even watches CNN?


I gather you don't like CNN, but they are just the presenter there.  The data comes from Kaiser Family Foundation.

Lots more from KFF here --









						Newsroom
					

Black, Hispanic, and Low-Income Workers are Much Less Likely to Feel ‘Very Safe’ at WorkWhile most people working outside their homes say they feel somewhat or very safe from COVID-19 in the workpl…




					www.kff.org


----------



## dad4 (Aug 8, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This has been known (or at a minimum speculated) for some time.
> 
> So the vaxxed get and pass along the virus.
> 
> ...


The rationale is simple: vaccinated people are less effective at transmission than unvaccinated people, because of the lower viral load in a vaccinated person.

It’s the same discussion we’ve been having for over a year.  

You want transmission to be boolean- Sam can/cannot transmit.  Sounds nice and makes the logic easy, but the world doesn’t work that way.

The actual world is continuous: Sam, on average, transmits the virus to R people.  The key question is whether R=0.72 or R=1.72.


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Meh…I love those stories too and yeah I hate the conservative hypocrisy. My favorite hits though have always been the people like the Obamas that call for racially integrated schools and make themselves champions of the public schools and then send their kids to fancy private schools, or the covid hypocrisy in certain politicians and health experts such as locking down but going to French laundry, getting a haircut, going to a houseboat, flying to another state or country for vacay, going to the gym, or calling for masks and going maskless when cameras are off like at a baseball game. Or maybe hypocrisy might be bad in any political warrior, whether left or right


It's really pretty simple, isn't it? "Sides" don't matter - power corrupts. Those that don't require accountability for the side that they associate themselves with, promote corruption. Those that demonize the "other side", promote division that inevitably promotes corruption.


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

what-happened said:


> CNN, Covid Command Center?  Who even watches CNN?


Communist or folks so drinking the kool aide their drunk on it 24/7.  Look, no mask at our party but our kids must get jabs & boosters and wear mask.  They are laughing at some of you big time.


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

This is where dad the math teacher and father of four children has been getting his hospital fear and scare news over the years.  Are you sure you dont work at one of these hospitals dad?  Are you a rep for big pharma?  Your information is deadly dude!  I was watching Fox 35 down in Orlando July 27th with tents outside because of the overflow that was being reported. My bro lives in West Palm.  Well, August 2 a PI dude went down and took pics of empty ER parking lots and no more tents.  Empty dude.  Another rag has pics from hospital ICR written in fear language and all these people looking like death is knocking. Only issue is the pics were from Italy and photo tricked to make our brains drip the adrenalin of fear.


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> I gather you don't like CNN, but they are just the presenter there.  The data comes from Kaiser Family Foundation.
> 
> Lots more from KFF here --
> 
> ...


U.S. : .0087 IFR 7 day avg..  Desantisville :   .0045 IFR 7 day avg.  I gather the falselarmist don't like these numbers but they are what they are despite the Fear Industries best efforts.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 11327
> 
> View attachment 11328


Hauoli Lahanau Braddah Barry!!  Okole Maluna!!


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

The Vaccine pusher was best pals with Jeffrey.  I'm hearing this is a no mistake kind of relationship and very emotional at times.  Jeff gave Bill one last "F U" two days before he whacked himself ((not really from my sources.  He alive and well, just like Julian."  He has the goods on Billy boy.  What has Billy been doing the last 18 months????


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

Bridgitt Arnold, a spokeswoman for Gates, told the Times in 2019 that the billionaire "regrets ever meeting with Epstein."  I bet he does and he's not the only with a little regret this morning.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Btw Miami dade is 73% fully vaxxed in the over 18 and the mayor of Miami has defied de santis with a mask mandate.  It’s the worst hit in Florida right now with icu capacity down to 8%.


2816 new cases 7 day avg........ZERO deaths a la San Francisco.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> The rationale is simple: vaccinated people are less effective at transmission than unvaccinated people, because of the lower viral load in a vaccinated person.
> 
> It’s the same discussion we’ve been having for over a year.
> 
> ...


The rationale is simple: vaccinated people, previously infected and recovered, are less effective at transmission than vaccinated people, not previously infected because of the lower viral load in a previously infected, vaccinated person.

Yes, it is the same discussion we have been having for a year and a half about you ignoring respiratory virus history.

You want transmission to be boolean- Sam can/cannot transmit.  Sounds nice and makes the logic easy, but the world doesn’t work that way which is where we agree.  But public policy has been boolean hasn't it?


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

*"It was a huge mistake to spend time with him and give him the credibility," Gates said. "I made a mistake."  *I heard it was very hostile place to work.  Everyone that does this behavior has to have 20 years to reflect on his behavior with others at work and on the Islands, where I'm sure___________________________________________________________.  Who the heck knows.  Let's all work together after all this is done and help the kids and the woman who need our help.  Espola?  Husker?  Looking for helpers soon.  Best int eh world is to help others


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Btw Miami dade is 73% fully vaxxed in the over 18 and the mayor of Miami has defied de santis with a mask mandate.  It’s the worst hit in Florida right now with icu capacity down to 8%.


0 deaths since June 12th 2021.  Jackson Memorial has 65 open beds

HHS Protect Public Data Hub


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> 0 deaths since June 12th 2021.  Jackson Memorial has 65 open beds
> 
> HHS Protect Public Data Hub


I drove by my local hospital and it's empty.  Who wants to go to the hospital now days?  Yikes!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not hospital collapse. Just overwhelmed.  Delay patient care.  Release people earlier than is optimal.
> Reduce nursing staff per patient.  Leave patients at home because the hospital has no room.
> 
> You've seen it already.  LA did it last winter.
> ...


It happens during a bad flu season too. I had surgery on a broken ankle a few winters back when cedars was in such a state.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

Scott Gottlieb today was on tv recommending n95 for kids in schools A. Apparently doesn’t think much of cloth masks, b has he met any children…yeah they’ll do a fitted sealed mask perfectly, c for vaxxed and unvaxxed…one step closer to realization vaccine not going to end this


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

How much longer will America put up with this?

*Fauci: Allowing virus to replicate could make 'worse variant' that 'could impact the vaccinated'*
*Fauci also predicted full authorization for current vaccines 'hopefully' in August

"There's a tenet that everybody knows in virology: a virus will not mutate unless you allow it to replicate," Fauci told NBC’s Chuck Todd on "Meet the Press." "Fortunately for us, the vaccines do quite well against delta, particularly in protecting you from severe disease, but if you give the virus the chance to continue to change, you're leading to a vulnerability that we might get a worse variant, and then that will impact not only the unvaccinated, that will impact the vaccinated because that variant could evade the protection of the vaccine." *


----------



## crush (Aug 8, 2021)

More from Dr. F

"I've said it several times … that you're not going to see a federally from the federal government mandating vaccines for the country," Fauci said. "But I'm almost certain in fact, I am certain that as soon as the FDA fully approves the vaccines … I hope that it will be within the next few weeks. I hope it's within the month of August." 

Fauci explained that authorization may also allow businesses, universities and other such private entities to mandate vaccines.  

*"The time has come is we've got to go the extra step to get people vaccinated," he added.  *((Basically, bribes of fries, burgers, lotto tickets, $100 from Joey bribes and chances of $1,000,000 is officially over. Now we need to take that extra step to get people jabbed. Let's see how many of wimpy friends will stickup for me and my family. Some just sit by hoping normalcy will come back. Ya right Jack, you will get boosters forever.  These people lie for a living and cheat to win.  WTF!!!))


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

crush said:


> More from Dr. F
> 
> "I've said it several times … that you're not going to see a federally from the federal government mandating vaccines for the country," Fauci said. "But I'm almost certain in fact, I am certain that as soon as the FDA fully approves the vaccines … I hope that it will be within the next few weeks. I hope it's within the month of August."
> 
> ...


Attorneyʻs are going to be busy.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

H





crush said:


> More from Dr. F
> 
> "I've said it several times … that you're not going to see a federally from the federal government mandating vaccines for the country," Fauci said. "But I'm almost certain in fact, I am certain that as soon as the FDA fully approves the vaccines … I hope that it will be within the next few weeks. I hope it's within the month of August."
> 
> ...


Harvard westlake, THE big Ivy League and higher level sports feeder school, has required all staff and students (they go 7th grade and up) to be fully vaxxed by mid august or students will have to remain remote.  Moreover, they have called upon all the local private and religious schools to require the same (at least for high contact sports).  Some of the big private schools have already expressed support and are studying the issue, probably beginning with football and cheerleading. The question now is whether Harvard westlake will force the issue by refusing to play schools that aren’t vaxxed.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 8, 2021)

San Francisco’s case rate now matches their highest winter case rate despite masks and their whopping vaccination rates.  That evil de santis needs to stop messing with San Francisco!


----------



## what-happened (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> I gather you don't like CNN, but they are just the presenter there.  The data comes from Kaiser Family Foundation.
> 
> Lots more from KFF here --
> 
> ...


You are smarter than that.  You absolutely know how badly CNN cherry picked the information available on the KFF site.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You are smarter than that.  You absolutely know how badly CNN cherry picked the information available on the KFF site.


Cherry picking season ended in May so cherries picked in August are dead......Ohhhhh, now I get it. Duh!


----------



## espola (Aug 8, 2021)

what-happened said:


> You are smarter than that.  You absolutely know how badly CNN cherry picked the information available on the KFF site.


What did CNN get wrong?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

crush said:


> How much longer will America put up with this?
> 
> *Fauci: Allowing virus to replicate could make 'worse variant' that 'could impact the vaccinated'*
> *Fauci also predicted full authorization for current vaccines 'hopefully' in August
> ...


Is it really always bad for viruses to replicate? Wasn't the human placenta the result of a viral update?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> What did CNN get wrong?


What did CNN get right?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

crush said:


> *"It was a huge mistake to spend time with him and give him the credibility," Gates said. "I made a mistake."  *I heard it was very hostile place to work.  Everyone that does this behavior has to have 20 years to reflect on his behavior with others at work and on the Islands, where I'm sure___________________________________________________________.  Who the heck knows.  Let's all work together after all this is done and help the kids and the woman who need our help.  Espola?  Husker?  Looking for helpers soon.  Best int eh world is to help others
> 
> View attachment 11329


Looks like the estrogen is kicking in.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 8, 2021)




----------



## what-happened (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> What did CNN get wrong?


Did you read the article or did you just post it?  The MSM is incapable of producing unbiased journalism.  CNN in particular, along with their friends over at Fox and MSNBC.


----------



## espola (Aug 8, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Did you read the article or did you just post it?  The MSM is incapable of producing unbiased journalism.  CNN in particular, along with their friends over at Fox and MSNBC.


It wasn't an article -- it was a single chart.  

What did they get wrong?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 8, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Did you read the article or did you just post it?  The MSM is incapable of producing unbiased journalism.  CNN in particular, along with their friends over at Fox and MSNBC.


Don't worry about Poll-spola.  He usually never reads what he post and so it was no different here.


----------



## watfly (Aug 8, 2021)

If you want to be really entertained watch Fauci on Meet the Press from this morning.  He's got an impressive ability to talk out of both sides of his mouth and his ass at the same time.   He undermines the vaccine and makes the mask sound like the go to for prevention.   No wonder vaccinations have effectively stalled.

On another note, I'm convinced that Chuck Todd caught an NBC executive diddling a choir boy and got the Meet the Press job in exchange for his silence.  He is a terrible interviewer with zero charisma.  He wouldn't have even been qualified to carry Tim Russert's water.


----------



## espola (Aug 8, 2021)

watfly said:


> If you want to be really entertained watch Fauci on Meet the Press from this morning.  He's got an impressive ability to talk out of both sides of his mouth and his ass at the same time.   He undermines the vaccine and makes the mask sound like the go to for prevention.   No wonder vaccinations have effectively stalled.
> 
> On another note, I'm convinced that Chuck Todd caught an NBC executive diddling a choir boy and got the Meet the Press job in exchange for his silence.  He is a terrible interviewer with zero charisma.  He wouldn't have even been qualified to carry Tim Russert's water.


Such an impressive analysis!  You should start a blog or something.


----------



## watfly (Aug 8, 2021)

espola said:


> Such an impressive analysis!  You should start a blog or something.


Yeah sometimes I even amaze myself with my wit and articulateness.  WTF, is that even a word?


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 9, 2021)

Say enough to this assault on our freedoms. 

"Americans should refuse to surrender their freedom. To be clear I am in fact calling for acts of civil disobedience. It is time for Americans to embrace the ideas developed so thoroughly by Henry David Thoreau in the 19th century and embraced by Gandhi, Dr. King, and others in the 20th century. It is time for us to support the shopkeeper who refuses to check for vaccines or enforce mask mandates. It is time to boycott the companies that require their workers to be vaccinated and to "buycott" with their competitors who do not.
It is time for us to sit down at the modern-day "Woolworth's" lunch counter, take off our mask, roll up our sleeve to show the absence of a needle mark, and demand to be served. . .

*. . . We need to create non-violent but situationally uncomfortable unrest. This is not a time for Americans to sit back and watch this play itself out. As we have learned with terror, poverty, drugs, and other famous "wars," sometimes things never really finish playing themselves out."*

"Whenever America enters into what becomes an endless war, militarily or otherwise, there are four attributes that you will always find present. They are:

 The war will allow the people with power to become more powerful
 Because they will never specifically identify the true size and significance of the threat, it gets hard to debate if the war is just
 The war will necessitate massive new programs that will bulldoze individual rights
 The leaders will never specifically define what success looks like"

"In assessing the threat that was/is presented by the CCV our war leaders have been extraordinarily nonspecific when it comes to specifics. Consider the following from the Journal of American Medicine: In 2020, approximately 3.36 million Americans died (a 17% increase over 2019). Of those, 690,000 were identified as being caused by heart disease and almost 600,000 from cancer.  The CCV had 345,000 attributed deaths and we know that the vast majority of those had some form of comorbidity cause attached to them. Other six-figure death causes include accidental injury (nearly 200,000), stroke, diabetes, and respiratory infections.


Should we ban McDonald’s quarter pounders? Should we ban all sugar drinks? Why on earth haven’t we banned all cigarettes? Doesn’t cholesterol need to go completely? How about all known carcinogens? The simple fact is that by labeling the CCV as this significant threat to life but never really quantifying or specifying the *exact details of the threat vis a vis other threats that are part of daily life, an uniformed and fearful public will be very susceptible to government intrusions into, and limitations imposed upon, their normal freedoms*."









						America’s Newest Endless War: The Coronavirus
					

Human Events News received this piece Friday, courtesy of Charlie Kirk, in which he discusses the endless war that is the...




					humanevents.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 9, 2021)

Now I pointed this out before. @dad4 made the claim that the vaxxed have lower loads to transmit. Well that is not what the CDC is saying.

So I ask again...and others should. What is the point of showing a vaxx passport? Trick question. There is none. It is pointless safety theater. Something we need to say enough of. 


"The Director of the CDC made an important admission during an interview today on CNN.   *CDC Director Rochelle Walensky stated the vaccine does not prevent COVID-19 infection, nor does it stop the vaccinated person from transmitting the infection or the delta variant.  According to Director Walensky, the only benefit from the vaccine now is presumably that it reduces the severity of symptoms*.

If a vaccinated and non-vaccinated person have the same capacity to carry, shed and transmit the virus – with or without symptoms – then what difference does a vaccination passport or vaccination ID make?

According to the CDC *TODAY,* both the vaxxed and non-vaxxed person walking into a restaurant, store, group, *venue or workplace present the exact same risk to other people there*, so how does the presentation of proof of vaccine make any difference?"









						CDC Director Makes Case Vaccination Passports are Futile, Vaccines Do Not Prevent COVID Infection or Delta Variant Transmission - The Last Refuge
					

They are just making up narratives now, and the media are not calling them out on it…. The Director of the CDC made an important admission during an interview today on CNN.   CDC Director Rochelle Walensky stated the vaccine does not prevent COVID-19 infection, nor does it stop the vaccinated...




					theconservativetreehouse.com


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> H
> Harvard westlake, THE big Ivy League and higher level sports feeder school, has required all staff and students (they go 7th grade and up) to be fully vaxxed by mid august or students will have to remain remote.  Moreover, they have called upon all the local private and religious schools to require the same (at least for high contact sports).  Some of the big private schools have already expressed support and are studying the issue, probably beginning with football and cheerleading. The question now is whether Harvard westlake will force the issue by refusing to play schools that aren’t vaxxed.


Sports take that I have had since Tom Lewis left Capo for Mater Dei; They need to have a Private school/Playoffs just for them.  Non- League games yes, but league & CIF against public schools is 100% unfair!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> If you want to be really entertained watch Fauci on Meet the Press from this morning.  He's got an impressive ability to talk out of both sides of his mouth and his ass at the same time.   He undermines the vaccine and makes the mask sound like the go to for prevention.   No wonder vaccinations have effectively stalled.
> 
> On another note, I'm convinced that Chuck Todd caught an NBC executive diddling a choir boy and got the Meet the Press job in exchange for his silence.  He is a terrible interviewer with zero charisma.  He wouldn't have even been qualified to carry Tim Russert's water.


Tim would have been fired a long time ago.  I miss that guy 100%


----------



## espola (Aug 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Say enough to this assault on our freedoms.
> 
> "Americans should refuse to surrender their freedom. To be clear I am in fact calling for acts of civil disobedience. It is time for Americans to embrace the ideas developed so thoroughly by Henry David Thoreau in the 19th century and embraced by Gandhi, Dr. King, and others in the 20th century. It is time for us to support the shopkeeper who refuses to check for vaccines or enforce mask mandates. It is time to boycott the companies that require their workers to be vaccinated and to "buycott" with their competitors who do not.
> It is time for us to sit down at the modern-day "Woolworth's" lunch counter, take off our mask, roll up our sleeve to show the absence of a needle mark, and demand to be served. . .
> ...











						Jack Posobiec - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 9, 2021)

Our press does so much to fan the fear. And a lot of our "leadership" fail in this area as well.

The Delta doomsday is presented daily. We are seeing changes made on what might happen.

If only we knew how bad the Delta variant is. If we did we could plan accordingly.

Wait? What? We have data from other western countries? What does that data show?

Despite dramatic rises in CASES, deaths are completely decoupled from cases.

In its simplest form, Delta turned out not to be an issue.

Just look at the charts.

So most people just look at the news and never look at underlying data. If they did, they would move on. 

Others like @dad4 now don't make the argument that the variant is deadly. His new goalpost is ICUs. And yet in the countries below we find that hospitalizations were not a concern. 









						France COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

France Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Spain COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Spain Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Netherlands COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Netherlands Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Belgium COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Belgium Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Iceland COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Iceland Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

WE THE PEOPLE must stop looking left all the time or right all the time.  We need to stop, look both ways and work together for the people, not what Barry, Joe and Hunter have worked so hard for.  Dr. F and his evil cohorts are trying to do destroy our country.  Don't play Left vs Right anymore.  









						Ronald Reagan ... We the people
					






					www.bitchute.com


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

Anyone see the train of tanks out in Palm Springs?  Lot's of tanks, AF Jets landing on major US Highways and Black hawks everywhere.


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

This the new normal for the elites like Dad and Poorespola.  Where's Husker?


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 9, 2021)

More food for thought.

"Over to NPR, which reports, “On rare occasions, some vaccinated people infected with the delta variant after vaccination may be contagious and spread the virus to others.” What does rare occasions mean? This is supposed to be, you know, science, so we finally get some numbers from the CDC: Out of 159 million fully vaccinated people,* the CDC documented 5,914 cases of fully vaccinated people who were hospitalized or died from Covid-19, and 75 percent of them were over age 65. That means only 0.0000037 percent of vaxxed people were hospitalized or died, most of them elderly.* That is a very small number. It is a lot less than one percent and a lot less than rare. *Chances of dying in a car wreck are many tens of thousands of times higher and yet we drive on."*

Think about the above STAT. 

Now explain to me why we play safety theater?


----------



## watfly (Aug 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Now I pointed this out before. @dad4 made the claim that the vaxxed have lower loads to transmit. Well that is not what the CDC is saying.
> 
> So I ask again...and others should. What is the point of showing a vaxx passport? Trick question. There is none. It is pointless safety theater. Something we need to say enough of.
> 
> ...


If seems the media is running a narrative that vaccines are overrated and masks are underrated.  They don't use those words explicitly but their coverage clearly leaves that strong impression.

You know what the media doesn't talk about?  Therapeutics gets zero mention in the MSM.  Obviously they're very effective if the rate of deaths in relation to cases is not moving.  That, or the Delta isn't that fatal.  So which is it and why won't the media mention it? (That's a rhetorical question)


----------



## espola (Aug 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> If seems the media is running a narrative that vaccines are overrated and masks are underrated.  They don't use those words explicitly but their coverage clearly leaves that strong impression.
> 
> You know what the media doesn't talk about?  Therapeutics gets zero mention in the MSM.  Obviously they're very effective if the rate of deaths in relation to cases is not moving.  That, or the Delta isn't that fatal.  So which is it and why won't the media mention it? (That's a rhetorical question)


Have there been any changes in therapeutics during the course of the pandemic?  (That's not a rhetorical question)


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 9, 2021)

espola said:


> Have there been any changes in therapeutics during the course of the pandemic?  (That's not a rhetorical question)


Yes.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 9, 2021)

Several of the other Los Angeles private schools have announced they are following Harvard Westlake and will require vaccination of eligible students. They will boycott athletics and activities with schools that don’t.


----------



## watfly (Aug 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Several of the other Los Angeles private schools have announced they are following Harvard Westlake and will require vaccination of eligible students. They will boycott athletics and activities with schools that don’t.


They're going to have a very short season.


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> They're going to have a very short season.


Something seems odd about all this.  Basically, if you want to ball hear you knead to get jabbed twice and forever as long as you attend our great private school where we make kids take experimental experiences to a hole knew level.  We wont play you either if you have a player that is non jabbed.  You guys can have sports too.  WAFJATI.  I mean, WTFCSWIH?  Elitist can have private schools too and their stupid waivers.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Several of the other Los Angeles private schools have announced they are following Harvard Westlake and will require vaccination of eligible students. They will boycott athletics and activities with schools that don’t.


Why? 

72 million in the US under 18. 350 or so deaths in that age group. 

There is NO rational reason to boycott any school. The risk profile of activities with other school who are vaxxed does not change at ALL if they play other schools who are not fully vaxxed.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 9, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Why?
> 
> 72 million in the US under 18. 350 or so deaths in that age group.
> 
> There is NO rational reason to boycott any school. The risk profile of activities with other school who are vaxxed does not change at ALL if they play other schools who are not fully vaxxed.


End Game:  Keep Larry Elder out of office.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 9, 2021)

watfly said:


> They're going to have a very short season.


The list of schools requiring the vaccine for at least high contact athletics is rumored to be getting not insignificant.


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

*Quiz Time:  What injection carries a risk of causing the following;

Bells Palsy *((Thanks Dad))


*Myocarditis* 


*Seizures*


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

Foxnews Headline:

Bernie's last days in Jail.  He got two toes whacked off and then some nurse is giving us the down low on his last days alone in prison for cheating.

A week before Madoff died, the disgraced former financier reportedly screamed for assistance. When a nurse arrived, Madoff stared at the floor and wiggled his foot while yelling* "Help! I hate this f–king place!,*" according to prison records obtained by Market Watch.

When the n*urse told Madoff to stop yelling *because he was disturbing other inmates*, Madoff replied, "F–k them!"*

The nurse then reportedly told Madoff to stop cursing and asked him what was wrong.

*Madoff's hallucinations became so severe that at one point he thought he saw a bird in a guard's pocket,* while on other occasions he believed people were lurking in his room at night.

Doctor's noted that he had appeared to reach the "terminal cliff" and transitioned him to a morphine drip. He died on April 14 of end-stage renal failure.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 9, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If I’m reading it correct they are estimating protection against symptomatic infection and strong positive at around 60% which is where my intuition led me. A. My intuition is scary good some time. B. That’s a disaster for those who believe vaccinating everyone can make things go away. C. To determine what happens from here it’s critical to know the natural immunity effectiveness numbers.


My read. A) Fig1. Despite increase in R0, prevalence throughout population is lower with delta and they are probably on the back side of the wave. The lower amplitude is good news. B) Fig2.  Delta cases decidedly shifted to younger persons with lower vaxx frequencies. C) Fig5 and 6.  Deaths show a strong deflection from cases (keep in mind y-axis graphs is log). Remarkably, the strongest deflection is in the most vulnerable and heavily vaxxed demographic, 65 and over.  That's what the vaccine was designed to do. D) Tables with odds ratios and VE. Straight up running the numbers, 3X less likely to be case+ if vaxxed.  If bin for PCR Ct scores most likely to be reflective of biologically relevant infections in the <65 age group, VE is 60%.  Would it be nice if VE in this demographic was still upper 80% like for alpha?  Sure, but given the viral load with delta that might be asking a lot, either for vaxx or infection acquired immunity. But if your intuition tells you this is somehow a disaster, you might want to recalibrate. Realistically, this is about as good as one could expect. As long as the amplitude of the waves keeps converging on some viral equilibrium asymptote and a new susceptible population does not emerge that's best outcome can hope for. And for me, that's a reasonable interpretation of the UK data with delta.


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> My read.


Is BS!!!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 9, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> My read. A) Fig1. Despite increase in R0, prevalence throughout population is lower with delta and they are probably on the back side of the wave. The lower amplitude is good news. B) Fig2.  Delta cases decidedly shifted to younger persons with lower vaxx frequencies. C) Fig5 and 6.  Deaths show a strong deflection from cases (keep in mind y-axis graphs is log). Remarkably, the strongest deflection is in the most vulnerable and heavily vaxxed demographic, 65 and over.  That's what the vaccine was designed to do. D) Tables with odds ratios and VE. Straight up running the numbers, 3X less likely to be case+ if vaxxed.  If bin for PCR Ct scores most likely to be reflective of biologically relevant infections in the <65 age group, VE is 60%.  Would it be nice if VE in this demographic was still upper 80% like for alpha?  Sure, but given the viral load with delta that might be asking a lot, either for vaxx or infection acquired immunity. But if your intuition tells you this is somehow a disaster, you might want to recalibrate. Realistically, this is about as good as one could expect. As long as the amplitude of the waves keeps converging on some viral equilibrium asymptote and a new susceptible population does not emerge that's best outcome can hope for. And for me, that's a reasonable interpretation of the UK data with delta.


Agree given viral loads of delta it’s a good result. But it’s a disaster for those who were hoping the vaccines would make it just away.


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)




----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 9, 2021)

crush said:


> Is BS!!!!!


some of your posts you seem conscientious about what you eat. The food you put into your body. it's your life but I think you could probably be at least as conscientious about the stuff you put in your mind. seriously where do you get some of this crap that you post? who sends it to you? it's poison. or maybe a social media performance art.


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

*72 Hours Non-Stop*​
Honest question to all my smart forum pals.  I know most of you have more than one degree and I know for a FACT lawyers are on here.  I would like to know if anyone is going to watch* My Pillow Founder and former crack addict Mike Lindell *prove cheating happen at last years election by showing* "Packet captures" *((Check Q drop 1839.  3 year Delta))  and *how, why, where, when* and *who *pulled off the heist.  Why did all the cheaters cheat when the Military was watching live?  Desperate times cause for desperate measures and foolish and stupid moves.  Also, does anyone know anyone, who is anyone, of importance trying for the* $5,000,000 cash prize *to prove Mike and his team wrong?


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> some of your posts you seem conscientious about what you eat. The food you put into your body. it's your life but I think you could probably be at least as conscientious about the stuff you put in your mind. *seriously where do you get some of this crap that you post?* who sends it to you? it's poison. or maybe a social media performance art.


Not CNN or Fox Evil Goalie, that's for damn sure!!!  I have my back against the wall.  No jab, no service.  I don't like it when people accuse me of being a drunk driver when I dont drink.  All we/you/everyone need's to do is stop eating meat and eat veggies, fruits and nuts.  Is that too hard for you?  If you want all the entertainment, meat lover meals everyday, heart burn and the attack to the heart, GTFA. Blaming the rise of the fake Delta on me is bullshit.  I know the facts.  I will stop you all day liar!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)




----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 9, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 11345


Bigfoot cannot be proven to not exist. therefore there must be a finite probability that Bigfoot does exist. if space time is infinite anything with a finite probability of occurring must occur. ergo Bigfoot must exist


----------



## crush (Aug 9, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Bigfoot cannot be proven to not exist. therefore there must be a finite probability that Bigfoot does exist. if space time is infinite anything with a finite probability of occurring must occur. ergo Bigfoot must exist


Bigfoot?  Were way past funny.  I love some satire too but this is getting serious.  Why are so many people who got jab getting the flu again?  Please don't blame it on those who did not get jabbed.  I feel that is evil and I will challenge you always.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 9, 2021)

crush said:


> satire, blame  I will challenge you always.


Outstanding.  I look forward to it.  Blame.  Why would I blame you for a virus?  That makes no sense.  I told you already.  Get the shot or don't get the shot.  Your choice as far as I'm concerned.  Satire.  There is deliberate, and sometimes very slick, misinformation being sowed into public discourse during a public health crisis.  I'm not a heaven/hell type of dude, but that is a form of wickedness.  Remarkably, much of it tracks to a relatively small number of online actors that pump it out there. Science is not well equipped to combat it.  In fact, the hope is that science attacks it because that helps legitimize the disinformation as an equally valid point of view.  The best thing to combat it, IMO, is satire. Challenging me.  That' what we're all here, right?  But if I post a source of data-no blame, no CNN, no pillow dude, no a million ways Cavani manages to miss in front of an open net-and say here's what I think of the data, and somebody just says "BS" then I'll challenge them back.  But I liked the Dr. Evil thing.  Got a soft spot for him.


----------



## crush (Aug 10, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Outstanding.  I look forward to it.  Blame.  Why would I blame you for a virus?  That makes no sense.  I told you already.  Get the shot or don't get the shot.  Your choice as far as I'm concerned.  Satire.  There is deliberate, and sometimes very slick, misinformation being sowed into public discourse during a public health crisis.  I'm not a heaven/hell type of dude, but that is a form of wickedness.  Remarkably, much of it tracks to a relatively small number of online actors that pump it out there. Science is not well equipped to combat it.  In fact, the hope is that science attacks it because that helps legitimize the disinformation as an equally valid point of view.  The best thing to combat it, IMO, is satire. Challenging me.  That' what we're all here, right?  But if I post a source of data-no blame, no CNN, no pillow dude, no a million ways Cavani manages to miss in front of an open net-and say here's what I think of the data, and somebody just says "BS" then I'll challenge them back.  But I liked the Dr. Evil thing.  Got a soft spot for him.


The numbers from CDC are BS in Florida.  I dont have any time to research.  Playing number games with death and virus is BS!!!  You and so many others have ruined our country with BS mixed with spike lies?  This is not funny Evil Goalie.  Lives, businesses and hope have been dashed by BS!  Get the shot or dont find work is BS!  Thanks again for all you do to sow BS.


----------



## crush (Aug 10, 2021)

I have never and I mean never seen so many selfish elitist lie, cheat, and lie some more to get the upper hand in life.  The Liars are trying to ruin me and so many others I know.  It's truly sick.  Assholes come on here and tell people to get the shot so you can live free.  No shot= no job, no entertainment, no school, no cruises, no bars, no strip joint, no eating out with the rich folks who took jab, no ball games with my son, no flying, no more friendship with the Elitist.  Oh no, where can I go and what can I do with my life at 54?  I'm between a rock and selfishness.  I do have one out and it will be played when the time is right.  5 years in the making.  I have it all in text and email......lol!!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> More food for thought.
> 
> "Over to NPR, which reports, “On rare occasions, some vaccinated people infected with the delta variant after vaccination may be contagious and spread the virus to others.” What does rare occasions mean? This is supposed to be, you know, science, so we finally get some numbers from the CDC: Out of 159 million fully vaccinated people,* the CDC documented 5,914 cases of fully vaccinated people who were hospitalized or died from Covid-19, and 75 percent of them were over age 65. That means only 0.0000037 percent of vaxxed people were hospitalized or died, most of them elderly.* That is a very small number. It is a lot less than one percent and a lot less than rare. *Chances of dying in a car wreck are many tens of thousands of times higher and yet we drive on."*
> 
> ...


To get rid of Desantis and Elder.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Bigfoot cannot be proven to not exist. therefore there must be a finite probability that Bigfoot does exist. if space time is infinite anything with a finite probability of occurring must occur. ergo Bigfoot must exist


Foot size?


----------



## crush (Aug 10, 2021)

Big Mike has some big news coming at 7pm today about the truth.  I heard a rumor but I wont tell.  This is going to be epic.  We have everyone at the forum expressing their true motives.  Everyone is on the record and all data is stored.  Hiding behind avatar is not good enough.  We got it all....lol! The more folks have the "more for me and less for others" the better it is for those who share with others and help others in time of need.  Mr. Smug and Mr. Snob days are coming to an end.  It's going to hit some you in the face hard.  You will not like the new earth, trust me.  That is why everyone is freaking out.  The tables have turned and they are so desperate because they got caught by Space Force and NSA for cheating.  Back to wall and nowhere to hide, nowhere to run and no gasoline.  Remember I told all of you this is only about saving the kids from monsters.  Sometimes life has to stop so we cam ALL see the truth and then those who want to help humanity, they will be rewarded.  Those who cheat to win will be asked kindly to leave or change.  The choice will be given to each human.


----------



## espola (Aug 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's the two heavy pro NPI governors, not De Santis that are in trouble right now.











						Shock poll: Charlie Crist leads Ron DeSantis amid COVID-19 surge
					

It's the first time Crist has gained the lead over the incumbent Republican.




					floridapolitics.com


----------



## espola (Aug 10, 2021)

Freedumb!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424855465964494848


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Shock poll: Charlie Crist leads Ron DeSantis amid COVID-19 surge
> 
> 
> It's the first time Crist has gained the lead over the incumbent Republican.
> ...


"hypothetical poll".  Sounds about right


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Shock poll: Charlie Crist leads Ron DeSantis amid COVID-19 surge
> 
> 
> It's the first time Crist has gained the lead over the incumbent Republican.
> ...


It actually wouldn't shock me to see De Santis lose....that does raise the specter that he'll be severely damaged going into the the Republican primaries further encouraging T to run.

We are only beginning to see the political effects of COVID.  Peru for example is now stuck with a Marxist government.  There is a universe out there in the multiverse where this thing is still going into winter 2021-2022 and Peru and Brazil are Marxist states, LePen is President of France, a near socialist is governor of New York, Larry Elder is governor of California, the Democrats are wiped out in the midterms, the Boris Johnson government has collapsed and Bibi is back due to voters just punishing their existing leaders right and left because everyone has been unable to deal with COVID effectively and the public is hopelessly divided as to which way it wants to go.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 10, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Bigfoot cannot be proven to not exist. therefore there must be a finite probability that Bigfoot does exist. if space time is infinite anything with a finite probability of occurring must occur. ergo Bigfoot must exist


Not anymore.  Bigfoot got vaccinated on his way to Sturgis.  It magnetized him.  With such a large magnet, it caused a 37 car pileup on I90.

RIP big guy.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Freedumb!


Agree.  COVID has been around forever while humans flourished and continue to do so.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

Cuomo Resigns.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Not anymore.  Bigfoot got vaccinated on his way to Sturgis.  It magnetized him.  With such a large magnet, it caused a 37 car pileup on I90.
> 
> RIP big guy.


So much for Social Distancing.


----------



## espola (Aug 10, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It actually wouldn't shock me to see De Santis lose....that does raise the specter that he'll be severely damaged going into the the Republican primaries further encouraging T to run.
> 
> We are only beginning to see the political effects of COVID.  Peru for example is now stuck with a Marxist government.  There is a universe out there in the multiverse where this thing is still going into winter 2021-2022 and Peru and Brazil are Marxist states, LePen is President of France, a near socialist is governor of New York, Larry Elder is governor of California, the Democrats are wiped out in the midterms, the Boris Johnson government has collapsed and Bibi is back due to voters just punishing their existing leaders right and left because everyone has been unable to deal with COVID effectively and the public is hopelessly divided as to which way it wants to go.


Peru and Brazil have Marxist governments?  Maybe you should write them and tell them that, because they don't know.

Nor does the CIA --





__





						Peru - The World Factbook
					






					www.cia.gov
				








__





						Brazil - The World Factbook
					






					www.cia.gov


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Peru and Brazil have Marxist governments?  Maybe you should write them and tell them that, because they don't know.
> 
> Nor does the CIA --
> 
> ...


Brazil I'm speculating as to the future collapse of its government.

As for Peru....









						Peru's Castillo names far-left PM; no finance minister in cabinet
					

Peruvian President Pedro Castillo named Guido Bellido, a member of his Marxist party, as prime minister on Thursday, dimming hopes of a moderate administration, and swore in most of his cabinet, but did not name a finance minister.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 10, 2021)

dad4 said:


> RIP big guy.


Indeed. "like a true nature's child, we were born, born to be wild".


----------



## espola (Aug 10, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Indeed. "like a true nature's child, we were born, born to be wild".
> 
> View attachment 11355


Where are all the bigfoot skeletons?


----------



## dad4 (Aug 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Where are all the bigfoot skeletons?


Bigfeet engage in ritual cannibalism as part of their funeral ceremonies.  The resulting prion diseases are one of the reasons there are so few left in the wild.

I saw a video about it on youtube, so I know it’s true.  The feds are just covering it up.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Peru and Brazil have Marxist governments?  Maybe you should write them and tell them that, because they don't know.
> 
> Nor does the CIA --
> 
> ...


Wonder if Bernie knows.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

*CDC Shreds Its Own Narrative on Breakthrough Cases With Latest Data*


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424774894592565249


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

https://t.co/e18cuSnmvq?amp=1


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

Florida still killin' it!!  IFR  .00016367,  7-day average as of 8/8/21 where cases increased by 11k from the previous weeks 7 day average but the IFR was bout the same at .00011572.  You case hyping whores are looking pretty slutty right now.


----------



## crush (Aug 10, 2021)

Please take a moment and watch this Documentary Trailer about, "Searching for Sugarman.  If you ahve money, buy the whole Doc.  Rodriquez is my new favorite human.  This Doc will blow you away and help you change from the inside.  I have a ways to go, just so you all know   Have a great day everyone........


----------



## crush (Aug 10, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

SHOCKER!!!


I'll get to the UK in a minute. But first:

Last week I shared with you something I received from a listener in Iceland. It was looking as if Iceland, one of the world's most heavily vaccinated countries, might retreat into the cycle of lockdowns and restrictions of 2020.

It's not impossible that that could still happen.

But there was an interesting development over the weekend.

As Iceland had a day whose U.S. equivalent would have been 100,000 new cases, state epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason is now throwing up his hands.

He says he is disappointed that vaccination has not brought about herd immunity, and that the only approach now is to protect vulnerable groups and allow the virus to move through society.

"We really can not do anything else," he says.

"We need to try to vaccinate and better protect those who are vulnerable, but let us tolerate the infection," he adds. "We need to somehow navigate this way, and we are now in this, not to get too many serious illnesses so that the hospital system does not collapse, but still try to achieve this herd immunity by letting the virus somehow run."

In the UK, scientists are now voicing a similar pessimism about herd immunity brought about by vaccines.

According to _The Telegraph_, "The delta variant has wrecked any chance of herd immunity, a panel of experts including the head of the Oxford vaccine team said as they called for an end to mass testing so Britain can start to live with Covid.

"Scientists," the paper continued, "said it was time to accept that there was no way of stopping the virus spreading through the entire population, and monitoring people with mild symptoms was no longer helpful.

"Prof. Andrew Pollard, who led the Oxford vaccine team, said it was clear that the delta variant can infect people who have been vaccinated, which made herd immunity impossible to reach even with high vaccine uptake."

"We don't have anything that will stop transmission," said Pollard, "so I think we are in a situation where herd immunity is not a possibility and I suspect the virus will throw up a new variant that is even better at infecting vaccinated individuals."

Moreover, says the _Telegraph_, "Public Health England has shown that when vaccinated people catch the virus they have a similar viral load to unvaccinatedindividuals and may be as infectious."

Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia and an expert in infectious diseases, added further that the obsession with "cases" needed to be abandoned: "We need to start moving away from just reporting infections, or just reporting positive cases admitted to hospital, to actually start reporting the number of people who are ill because of Covid. Otherwise we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that actually don't translate into disease burden."

What this means for government policy remains to be seen. But since the worst of the totalitarianism has occurred under regimes seeking "zero COVID," and these scientists appear to believe such a thing is ridiculous, maybe it's good news.— Tom Woods


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

*COVID-19 Is Probably 99% Survivable for Most Age Groups, but PolitiFact Rated This False*
*The suggestion that a person can't make any reasonable guesses about his own likelihood of survival is misleading.*
ROBBY SOAVE | 8.9.2021 12:22 PM

A viral Instagram post claimed that COVID-19 is 99 percent survivable for most age groups—the elderly being an important exception. The post cited projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), but was flagged as misinformation by the social media site and rated "false" by the Poynter Institute's PolitiFact.

*That's a curious verdict, since the underlying claim is likely true.* While estimates of COVID-19's infection fatality rate (IFR) range from study to study, the expert consensus does indeed place the death rate at below 1 percent for most age groups.

PolitiFact is correct that the CDC's September 2020 modeling projections should not be used to calculate the IFR. The post also erred in comparing the vaccine efficacy rate of 94 percent to the COVID-19 survivability rate. This is an apples and oranges comparison; it does _not _mean that the average person's natural immune response is better at fighting the disease than the vaccines. At present, the overwhelming majority of hospitalized COVID-19 patients are unvaccinated. Since the beginning of the year, 98 percent of COVID-19 deaths in Virginia were among the unvaccinated. The vaccines are not in competition with the body's natural immune system—they render COVID-19 even _more _mild, and even _more _survivable.



To the extent the post is implying that most people have no use for the vaccine, it is indeed a piece of misinformation. But PolitiFact went much further, rating as false the very idea that COVID-19 has a low IFR for most people.

"Experts say a person cannot determine their own chances at surviving COVID-19 by looking at national statistics, because the data doesn't take into account the person's own risks and COVID-19 deaths are believed to be undercounted," wrote PolitiFact. "Survival rate data is not yet available from the CDC. We rate this claim False."

Deaths are probably undercounted, but so are asymptomatic cases where the infected person's experience with the disease is so mild that they don't bother to get tested (which would decrease the IFR). The national case fatality rate, which includes deaths among the hard-hit elderly population, is currently 1.7 percent, according to CDC data. (PolitiFact did not immediately respond to a request for comment.)

Moreover, the suggestion that a person can't make any reasonable guesses about his own likelihood of surviving COVID-19 given his age group and health status is misleading. Just 300 Americans under the age of 18 have died from COVID-19. Young people _can _and _should _infer that they have a high degree of natural immunity against a severe coronavirus health outcome. Policy makers _can _and _should _use this information productively: i.e., by reopening schools this fall with minimum restrictions in place.

It often seems like the mainstream media reporters, federal health experts, and policy makers who form Team Blue are so concerned about people taking the pandemic insufficiently seriously that they resort to needless fearmongering. For another example of this, see a recent _New York Times _headline about long COVID-19 titled "This Is Really Scary," which makes the as-of-yet completely unsupported claim that even mild infections are causing very serious "mental, physical, and neurological symptoms" in "many" children.

The vast, vast majority of healthy nonelderly people who contract COVID-19 will survive the illness. They should further improve their odds—and reduce their likelihood of infecting anyone else—by getting vaccinated, because even a low _percentage _of deaths can still mean a great many deaths, in absolute terms, if the infection rate is spiraling out of control. But we don't need to live in fear, ignorant of the plain reality that the infection fatality rate is, in all likelihood, somewhere in the under–1 percent range for most age groups.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 10, 2021)

espola said:


> Where are all the bigfoot skeletons?





dad4 said:


> Bigfeet engage in ritual cannibalism as part of their funeral ceremonies.  The resulting prion diseases are one of the reasons there are so few left in the wild.
> 
> I saw a video about it on youtube, so I know it’s true.  The feds are just covering it up.


DON’T YOU PEOPLE WATCH ANCIENT ALIENS!!! Sasquatch have the ability to shift dimensions, duh!


----------



## crush (Aug 10, 2021)

*MSNBC's Chuck Todd already predicting Cuomo's political comeback: I expect he'll 'run for office again'*


----------



## what-happened (Aug 10, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Florida still killin' it!!  IFR  .00016367,  7-day average as of 8/8/21 where cases increased by 11k from the previous weeks 7 day average but the IFR was bout the same at .00011572.  You case hyping whores are looking pretty slutty right now.


Their fatality rate has been trending down since early summer.  I'm sure some will argue the lag between cases and deaths..


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

what-happened said:


> Their fatality rate has been trending down since early summer.  I'm sure some will argue the lag between cases and deaths..


Ahhhh.  The beauty of case hype.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 10, 2021)

crush said:


> View attachment 11369
> 
> *MSNBC's Chuck Todd already predicting Cuomo's political comeback: I expect he'll 'run for office again'*


Maybe Chuck can be his campaign manager.


----------



## espola (Aug 10, 2021)




----------



## N00B (Aug 11, 2021)

Wh


espola said:


> View attachment 11373


Which is Sisyphus?


----------



## crush (Aug 11, 2021)

N00B said:


> Wh
> 
> 
> Which is Sisyphus?


Water is the best thing anyone can drink during these tough times, fyi


----------



## crush (Aug 11, 2021)

How they cheat is of interest to me personally.  They decide before the election to cheat, rule #1.  Secondly, they build a line of credit of Phantom voters.  When their getting their asses kicked, they pull out the Phantom Line of Credit.  BTW, did anyone see the Marine Col. video on cheating?  He say's, *Who* cheated, *When* they cheated, *Why* they cheated, *Where* they cheated and *WHO *they cheated with.  This was a Military Sting OP folks.  Please, can we as adults stop buying and cheating are way to the top?



*Stop* lying, *Stop* stealing kids freedom to make a political stance and *Stop* cheating and *Stop* pay to play games!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 11, 2021)

Bad News for the Bad Guys.  The Cyber Space Force was hand picked by t himself and just wait for the shoes to keep dropping.  Where is the Bull?  No leaks from the D report makes one wonder.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 11, 2021)

New breakthrough info out of Qatar.  Qatar puts protection against symptomatic breakthrough with Pfizer just north of 50%.  Moderna is at 83%.  Those of you who had Modena win today’s lottery.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 11, 2021)




----------



## N00B (Aug 11, 2021)

crush said:


> Water is the best thing anyone can drink during these tough times, fyi


That’s Tantalus…. Oh, my bad! The Sisyphus joke landed elsewhere.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 11, 2021)

crush said:


> *72 Hours Non-Stop*​
> * $5,000,000 cash prize *
> 
> View attachment 11344


Status report?  Is the 5000 large still on the table?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 11, 2021)

DON'T PANIC YOU MASK-A-HOLICS


William Mattox reports, in the _Wall Street Journal_, on a happy development in Florida: Children in school districts that mandate masks have been given greater access to school choice in the form of (as Mattox describes it) “a Hope Scholarship that allows them to attend another (public or private) school of their parents’ choosing.” A slice:



> The announcement elicited widespread praise from parents who oppose mask mandates and knee-jerk derision from Mr. DeSantis’s detractors nationwide. But the most interesting response came from some Covid-wary Florida parents who support mask requirements. They asked if they too could take advantage of the Hope Scholarships. The department said yes.
> Thus, it is now possible for families on all sides of the mask wars to send their kids to a school with Covid policies that match their preferences. That’s a win-win.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 11, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> View attachment 11377


Your graph is yet more good evidence that the vaccines work.

Are other factors also at play?  Heck yes.  For one, those grey dots in the lower left are the mountain states and the upper Midwest: mild summer weather and high rates of past infection.  

I just hope vax rates there go up before people head inside as it gets cold and dark.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 11, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Your graph is yet more good evidence that the vaccines work.
> 
> Are other factors also at play?  Heck yes.  For one, those grey dots in the lower left are the mountain states and the upper Midwest: mild summer weather and high rates of past infection.
> 
> I just hope vax rates there go up before people head inside as it gets cold and dark.


Lol!!  From Hawaii to Cali to Florida the Maskophiles are reinstating post-vax restrictions for IFR's of .0019, .0037, .0057 respectively.  Vaccines working?


----------



## dad4 (Aug 11, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Lol!!  From Hawaii to Cali to Florida the Maskophiles are reinstating post-vax restrictions for IFR's of .0019, .0037, .0057 respectively.  Vaccines working?


Look at your graph.  

That is a very strong negative correlation.  50 data points, none of them in the entire NE quadrant.  

P value for that is under 0.001 - an order of magnitude beyond highly significant.

So, yes, your graph is good evidence that high vaccination rates reduce hospital admissions.


----------



## crush (Aug 12, 2021)

*Los Angeles mandating vaccination proof to enter indoor public spaces*

"I Loved LA, no more."

The Los Angeles City Council voted Wednesday to instruct the city attorney to draft an ordinance that would* require at least one coronavirus vaccination dose* in order* to visit restaurants, gyms, spas, stadiums and other public spaces.  *((No more LA for me))

"We need to *stop fighting the science and start fighting the virus,*" O’Farrell said *while insisting the move is not a vaccine mandate. * ((Coo Coo))

"This is not a vaccine mandate," he explained. "We’re not going to tell someone, anyone, that they have to get vaccinated. We’re also not going to deny anyone the ability to access essential food, medicine… regardless of vaccination. That wouldn’t be legal, that wouldn’t be moral, *but what is immoral is choosing not to get vaccinated*,* choosing to listen to some delusional rant on Twitter."  *((OK Dr.))

I will never go to NYC either.  Oh well, you jabbers can have LA and NYC and all the boosters you want.  I heard from a good pal who got #3.  Dude can;t lift up his arm.  I'm sure it will get better some day.

"This is a miraculous place, literally filled with wonders," de Blasio said. *"If you’re vaccinated, that’s gonna open up to you, you can open the door*. If you’re* unvaccinated you will not be able to participate* in many things. *It’s time for people to see vaccination as necessary to living a good, full and healthy life."  *

Karma is coming for ALL the liars and are the dividers.  Look at LA and NYC.  WAFJATI.  Seriously, you elitist can have all the major cities.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look at your graph.
> 
> That is a very strong negative correlation.  50 data points, none of them in the entire NE quadrant.
> 
> ...


Lol! or


dad4 said:


> *.........high rates of past infection. *
> 
> I just hope vax rates there go up before people head inside as it gets cold and dark.


Not a good case for vax mandates.  It's okay.  I am used to your mea culpa's.


----------



## crush (Aug 12, 2021)

Ruthless and will do whatever it takes to make $$$$.  Tough game were all playing.  I was thinking about what that dude had to do to survive when he was 14.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 12, 2021)

N00B said:


> That’s Tantalus…. Oh, my bad! The Sisyphus joke landed elsewhere.


Those are some tortured souls!


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 12, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Look at your graph.
> 
> That is a very strong negative correlation.  50 data points, none of them in the entire NE quadrant.
> 
> ...


Dizzy was never good with math.


----------



## crush (Aug 12, 2021)

I hope everyone can find happiness in these tough times.  No jab, no job is taking it's toll.  Division is at an all time high.  How to find true happiness is standing up for your freaking rights Warren.  Look at these two back in the day.  Oh happy days is coming soon


----------



## espola (Aug 12, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It's the two heavy pro NPI governors, not De Santis that are in trouble right now.


Apparently DeSantis does no know how bad things are since he is now denying knowledge of hundreds of ventilators being requested by Florida state health authorities from Federal stockpiles.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 12, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Dizzy was never good with math.


I like math.  It quantifies your hysteria.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 12, 2021)

A @NYT promoted @DukeU "study" claiming benefits from masks on children, didn't even have a control group. It's ridiculous. Are they so desperate?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 12, 2021)

MASKOPHILE ALERT!

https://www.city-journal.org/do-masks-work-a-review-of-the-evidence?wallit_nosession=1

The CDC asserts this even though its own statistics show that Covid-19 is not much of a threat to schoolchildren. Its numbers show that more people under the age of 18 died of influenza during the 2018–19 flu season—a season of “moderate severity” that lasted eight months—than have died of Covid-19 across more than 18 months. What’s more, the CDC says that out of every 1,738 Covid-19-related deaths in the U.S. in 2020 and 2021, just one has involved someone under 18 years of age; and out of every 150 deaths of someone under 18 years of age, just one has been Covid-related. Yet the CDC declares that schoolchildren, who learn in part from communication conveyed through facial expressions, should nevertheless hide their faces—and so should their teachers.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 12, 2021)

*The Masking of America Faceless people make compliant subjects, not good citizens. by Jeffrey H. Anderson *

The day after the CDC endorsed nationwide mask-wearing, President Trump announced, “I won’t be doing it personally.” From that instant, the mask quickly became a symbol of civic virtue—a sort of Black Lives Matter flag that could be hung from one’s face. For many it conveyed a trio of virtues: _I’m unselfish; I’m pro-science; I’m anti-Trump._ What it also conveyed, incidentally, was rejection of longstanding Western norms, unhealthy risk-aversion, credulous willingness to embrace unsupported health claims, and a pallid view of human interaction.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 12, 2021)

‘The war has changed’: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe The internal presentation shows that the agency thinks it is struggling to communicate on vaccine efficacy amid increased breakthrough infections

The delta variant of the coronavirus appears to cause more severe illness than earlier variants and spreads as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal federal health document that argues officials must “acknowledge the war has changed.”

The document is an internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention slide presentation, shared within the CDC and obtained by The Washington Post. It captures the struggle of the nation’s top public health agency to persuade the public to embrace vaccination and prevention measures, including mask-wearing, as cases surge across the United States and new research suggests vaccinated people can spread the virus.

The document strikes an urgent note, revealing the agency knows it must revamp its public messaging to emphasize vaccination as the best defense against a variant so contagious that it acts almost like a different novel virus, leaping from target to target more swiftly than Ebola or the common cold.  

It cites a combination of recently obtained, still-unpublished data from outbreak investigations and outside studies showing that vaccinated individuals infected with delta may be able to transmit the virus as easily as those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people infected with delta have measurable viral loads similar to those who are unvaccinated and infected with the variant.


----------



## crush (Aug 13, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 13, 2021)

Jay Bhattacharya, Sunetra Gupta, and Martin Kulldorff explore *“the strange neglect of natural immunity.**” *A slice:



> The COVID vaccines are a fantastic technology that, if used properly, can end the epidemic around the world. Among all medical inventions, vaccines have saved more lives than any other – except perhaps basic hygiene measures like proper sewage systems and clean drinking water. Vaccines themselves do not protect us; it is our immune system’s reaction to the vaccine that protects us. The beauty of vaccines is that we can activate our immune system against serious diseases without becoming seriously ill.





> Natural infection typically confers better and broader protection, but this comes at a cost to those who are vulnerable to severe illness and death. For those in the vulnerable group, including the elderly and those with chronic disease, it is safer to acquire future protection against the disease via vaccination than by recovering from the disease. *At the same time, it makes little sense to ignore the scientific fact that infection does confer long-lasting future protection for the millions of people who have had COVID.*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 13, 2021)

*“The continued obsession with infection figures encourages paranoia when vaccines have severely weakened the link between cases and deaths.”*

Prof Hayward’s comments are the latest in a succession of similar interventions from leading scientists in recent days. Oxford’s Prof Andrew Pollard is also skeptical that herd immunity can be attained. Prof Paul Hunter of Exeter, meanwhile, has suggested that we should stop just reporting Covid infection numbers and focus on those who are actually unwell because of the virus. The continued obsession with infection figures encourages paranoia when vaccines have severely weakened the link between cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and many “cases” are mild or asymptomatic. It is welcome that scientists are finally addressing what learning to live with Covid must practically entail.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 13, 2021)

Scott McKay is correct: *“Our Politicians And Bureaucrats Are Failing At Virology.**”* A slice:


> Smallpox and polio are not coronaviruses. Thus they can be eradicated with vaccination.





> This matters, because if we’re ever going to return to normal it’s going to have to be with the understanding that it’s not possible to have zero COVID cases. There will be COVID cases among the people who don’t have immunity, and it’s quite likely that as the virus continues to mutate its variants might continue to produce symptoms among people who have been vaccinated. We’re seeing a bit of that with the Delta variant, though it’s true that more than 90 percent of those currently hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated.





> Returning to normal is going to mean that future strains of COVID, which are overwhelmingly likely to be infectious but less serious or deadly, will infect people regularly like colds or influenza do.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 13, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Status report?  Is the 5000 large still on the table?


Since it was recommended, I did end up checking out the pillow dude's cybersymposium.  To avoid the crazy, I used a spirit guide, following reports from one the invited outside experts whose pilgrim's progress can be found here.





__





						Loading…
					





					twitter.com
				




Bottom line, none of the promised CPAC data was provided, with an eventual statement by Lindell's cyber team that the promised packet data that was supposed to reveal vote flipping was not recoverable.  By Tuesday, the same day Lindell found out Dominion's defamation suit could go forward, the 5 million challenge was off the table.  Perhaps the discovery phase of the lawsuit may prove more interesting.


----------



## watfly (Aug 13, 2021)

A few weeks ago I posted a JAMA study that recommended that kids not be masked over CO2 concerns.  In the spirit of full disclosure that article has now been retracted.









						Notice of Retraction. Walach H, et al. Experimental Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Content in Inhaled Air With or Without Face Masks in Healthy Children: A Randomized Clinical Trial
					

We hereby retract this article from JAMA Pediatrics and from the medical literature.




					jamanetwork.com
				




Still doesn't change my opinion of masking for children for many other reasons besides CO2.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 13, 2021)

watfly said:


> spirit of full disclosure


Whatever your opinion, taking the time to track back through attribution is IMO deserving of kuddos.


----------



## crush (Aug 13, 2021)

So the Evil Goalie has delacred no cheating went on.  Great job Sherlock.  You and the Pro Vax group will be just find and dandy in the world you asked for.  Trust me, everyone in this stage of the game will get excstly whats coming to them.  All brains habe been give the choice.  I will wear my mask and take the weekly test if thats what it will take.  My kids are also masked up.  Blood thinner stock is sky rocketing.  Stay saffe everyone.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 13, 2021)

I remember as a kid my mom sent me to hang out with a friend who wasn’t feeling well.  Come to find out he had the Chickenpox, cause I broke out a few days later.  I also found out 3 other friends had the same experience cause our parents intentionally sent us there to get the Virus because it was better for us to get it as a kid and develop an immunity than to risk getting it as an adult.


----------



## crush (Aug 13, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Whatever your opinion, taking the time to track back through attribution is IMO deserving of kuddos.


Honest questions you guys.  Evil, Dad, Husker Pooespola or IZ, please share sage advice with me.  I have NEVER felt this much pressure to earn my freedom.  Does anyone truly know what their rolling their sleeve up for?  What's in IT, please share if you honestly know what the ingredients is that everyone is begging me to take.  I mean, at this point I see no way of living in California without going homeless.  I could move to another state and they will welcome me but my dd Sr year is what some kids live for.  I'm stuck between a rock & a hard place.  My buddy took two jabs to keep his job and now he drinks blood thinner.  The dude out of Murrieta is not doing good.  Please pray for Gary.  I will give update on him asap.  I saw a real video of 17 year old who took jabs because her mom said so and is paralyzed from the waist down.  He mom was crying saying dont have kids take it.  Why is blood thinner #1 in sales right now?  My buddy just bought a killer house up in Agora Hills.  His wife just got her fat bonus for another record quarter.  Teachers get their jobs ((they now have to give something up if they want a job so they can pay their mortgage or rent and all their other payments like sports car)).  This is what keeping up with the Smiths is like you guys but with intense pressure to keep you freedom.  Nothing like freedom in exchange for two jabs+mask+boosters when Dr. F says to take the boosters.  Either way, none of us have true freedom.  My buddy told me 100% no more Jabs and if he could do it all over again, he would have moved two years ago and took a job at a Charter School in FL..  He took the jab because he felt pressure from his boss.  Wat Fly man, if a person feels cohorts into a corner to keep his job and then dies from adverse reaction to the jabs, can family sue the business owner?  Some of these guys are mean assholes and make worker feel guilty, confused, pressured and not sure what to do so they take one for the team and roll up the sleeve.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 13, 2021)




----------



## watfly (Aug 13, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I remember as a kid my mom sent me to hang out with a friend who wasn’t feeling well.  Come to find out he had the Chickenpox, cause I broke out a few days later.  I also found out 3 other friends had the same experience cause our parents intentionally sent us there to get the Virus because it was better for us to get it as a kid and develop an immunity than to risk getting it as an adult.


There is an episode of South Park where the parents get the kids together with a sick kid so they all get chickenpox.  The kids find out and as revenge get a hooker with herpes to use their parents personal items like toothbrushes.

I'm hoping you didn't do that to your mom.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 13, 2021)

watfly said:


> There is an episode of South Park where the parents get the kids together with a sick kid so they all get chickenpox.  The kids find out and as revenge get a hooker with herpes to use their parents personal items like toothbrushes.
> 
> I'm hoping you didn't do that to your mom.


LOL…..that was a great episode!


----------



## crush (Aug 13, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> View attachment 11393


Thanks Hound, I needed this.  I went to Hole Foods and everyone is back wearing the mask.  I decided I dont want to be called A Schmuck or a Drunk Driver so I gave up my freedom to make others around less paranoid and will ear my mask again.  I 100% feel sorry for all my friends who took the two jabs and are not safe from getting it and it they do get IT, their super spreaders now.  I cant keep up with the latest data.  These people have no more goal post.  It always good and their always right with their numbers.  They never lie and they always tell the truth.  I now know people are 100% being played and are brainwashed in fear.  Fear is everywhere.  That was a quick summer.  This Fall is going to nuts!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 13, 2021)

Even the church people who are rule followers are brainwashed.  I was debating the facts with old minster pal earlier and he got all mad.  He told me that Apostle Paul would rebuke me for my disobedience to the governing authorities that are over me.  Paul mentions it in the book of Romans.  Dude also told me Paul said to obey your leaders because they keep watch over you as men who must give an account for their leadership.  I told him to buzz off and he's dead wrong and to never pluck a scripture out to suit your desires and a way to make a living.  He makes a buck in the ministry and to stay open he has to obey....lol!!!  What a joke!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 13, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Apparently DeSantis does no know how bad things are since he is now denying knowledge of hundreds of ventilators being requested by Florida state health authorities from Federal stockpiles.


I know, right?  Did you hear cases are skyrocketing in San Francisco and nyc???  That evil Ron de santis must be stopped!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> I remember as a kid my mom sent me to hang out with a friend who wasn’t feeling well.  Come to find out he had the Chickenpox, cause I broke out a few days later.  I also found out 3 other friends had the same experience cause our parents intentionally sent us there to get the Virus because it was better for us to get it as a kid and develop an immunity than to risk getting it as an adult.


It’s a bit why my current stance is ironic.  I begged my parents not to do that to me and managed to avoid getting it into my 20s. I got it as a senior in college probably on a flight back from russia.  I had to be hospitalized. Had some pretty bad lung scaring too and had to go on oxygen.  It was just a few years shy of the vaccine being approved in the us too.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

crush said:


> Honest questions you guys.  Evil, Dad, Husker Pooespola or IZ, please share sage advice with me.  I have NEVER felt this much pressure to earn my freedom.  Does anyone truly know what their rolling their sleeve up for?  What's in IT, please share if you honestly know what the ingredients is that everyone is begging me to take.  I mean, at this point I see no way of living in California without going homeless.  I could move to another state and they will welcome me but my dd Sr year is what some kids live for.  I'm stuck between a rock & a hard place.  My buddy took two jabs to keep his job and now he drinks blood thinner.  The dude out of Murrieta is not doing good.  Please pray for Gary.  I will give update on him asap.  I saw a real video of 17 year old who took jabs because her mom said so and is paralyzed from the waist down.  He mom was crying saying dont have kids take it.  Why is blood thinner #1 in sales right now?  My buddy just bought a killer house up in Agora Hills.  His wife just got her fat bonus for another record quarter.  Teachers get their jobs ((they now have to give something up if they want a job so they can pay their mortgage or rent and all their other payments like sports car)).  This is what keeping up with the Smiths is like you guys but with intense pressure to keep you freedom.  Nothing like freedom in exchange for two jabs+mask+boosters when Dr. F says to take the boosters.  Either way, none of us have true freedom.  My buddy told me 100% no more Jabs and if he could do it all over again, he would have moved two years ago and took a job at a Charter School in FL..  He took the jab because he felt pressure from his boss.  Wat Fly man, if a person feels cohorts into a corner to keep his job and then dies from adverse reaction to the jabs, can family sue the business owner?  Some of these guys are mean assholes and make worker feel guilty, confused, pressured and not sure what to do so they take one for the team and roll up the sleeve.


The trials of the moderna vaccine in 12-17 didn’t go well.  The early reports ionic show only 40% effective in stopping symptomatic infection against the delta. If so why make the kiddos take it…they already aren’t at serious risk of hospitalization and disease so what exactly is the vaccine intended to accomplish???    Make a cold a more mild cold?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

a. The other corona viruses have a history of changing to avoid natural immunity.
b. There have been some indications that natural immunity might be more robust than vaccinated immunity due to different types of antibodies being present
c. There have been some showings that the vaccinated can have similar viral loads to the unvaccinated.
d. zero covid as a result isn't possible.  It will eventually reach equilibrium with us.  Like flu, RSV, adenoviruses and the other coronaviruses, it will kill people from time to time.
e. there's an inevitable rocky period of unknown duration for when equilibrium will be reached and ongoing restrictions just delay the inevitable.
f. Some asian countries and Aus/NZ will have a horrible time though when they need to hit that equilibrium, even if they get to full vaccination.  It will be painful since they can't stay shut off from the world forever.

Why it’s time to move on from Covid - spiked (spiked-online.com)


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

A good summary of the lack of mask data and the problems with the observational mask studies.

Do Masks Work? | City Journal (city-journal.org)


----------



## espola (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I know, right?  Did you hear cases are skyrocketing in San Francisco and nyc???  That evil Ron de santis must be stopped!!!


The health authorities in most places are doing whatever they can to combat the disease.  Ron proudly claims that he is standing in the way.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

espola said:


> The health authorities in most places are doing whatever they can to combat the disease.  Ron proudly claims that he is standing in the way.


If the health authorities are doing "whatever they can to combat the disease" (which is false BTW....cloth masks and vaccination cards if breakthroughs are in the neighborhood of 40-60% will do nothing), well they certainly are failing at it in NYC, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.  I guess in your world gross incompetence then is different from willful obstruction even though both get you to the same place????


----------



## espola (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If the health authorities are doing "whatever they can to combat the disease" (which is false BTW....cloth masks and vaccination cards if breakthroughs are in the neighborhood of 40-60% will do nothing), well they certainly are failing at it in NYC, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.  I guess in your world gross incompetence then is different from willful obstruction even though both get you to the same place????


You sound hurt.


----------



## crush (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> If the health authorities are doing "whatever they can to combat the disease" (which is false BTW....cloth masks and vaccination cards if breakthroughs are in the neighborhood of 40-60% will do nothing), well they certainly are failing at it in NYC, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.  I guess in your world gross incompetence then is different from willful obstruction even though both get you to the same place????


Espola has been waiting for you Grace.  Welcome back btw.  I need to take a break mentally.  I just cant get my head wrapped around all this.  You take over and I'll set back and read about the latest.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

espola said:


> You sound hurt.


You sound stupid. But hey that’s nothing new ^\_(;?)_/^.


----------



## espola (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You sound stupid. But hey that’s nothing new ^\_(;?)_/^.


I'm smart enough to see that Ron D. is trying really hard to fill t's shoes.  Are you?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm smart enough to see that Ron D. is trying really hard to fill t's shoes.  Are you?


You weren’t smart enough to see it’s a positive for the country if the rs have as a nominee someone who is more stable than the former president. But that’s your marching orders from the dnc right…see you got the “DeSantis is worse than trump” script that’s been making the rounds.


----------



## espola (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> You weren’t smart enough to see it’s a positive for the country if the rs have as a nominee someone who is more stable than the former president. But that’s your marching orders from the dnc right…see you got the “DeSantis is worse than trump” script that’s been making the rounds.


DeSantis is not worse than t by a long shot.  That, however, is a long way from "positive for the country".

I hadn't heard that about him - perhaps because I am not a Democrat.  

I do, however, get several emails every day that sound by their tone that the sender thinks I am a t supporter.  Go figure.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

espola said:


> DeSantis is not worse than t by a long shot.  That, however, is a long way from "positive for the country".
> 
> I hadn't heard that about him - perhaps because I am not a Democrat.
> 
> I do, however, get several emails every day that sound by their tone that the sender thinks I am a t supporter.  Go figure.


That’s ok. Somehow I wound up on the Elizabeth Warren email list even though I would consider meet Kevin a positive over newsom.


----------



## espola (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> That’s ok. Somehow I wound up on the Elizabeth Warren email list even though I would consider meet Kevin a positive over newsom.


Who or what is meet Kevin?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

espola said:


> Who or what is meet Kevin?


At least according to some polls, the front runner to replace newsom in the California recall.


----------



## espola (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> At least according to some polls, the front runner to replace newsom in the California recall.


I had to look him up.  

It's too soon for serious study of the candidates, but I voted for Faulconer for Mayor of SD in that brief period when I was a resident of SD.  Then he became a t supporter, however.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 13, 2021)

espola said:


> I had to look him up.
> 
> It's too soon for serious study of the candidates, but I voted for Faulconer for Mayor of SD in that brief period when I was a resident of SD.  Then he became a t supporter, however.


Poor baby…having to go look up the candidates. Treat yourself to an ice cream to make up for the hard work.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I know, right?  Did you hear cases are skyrocketing in San Francisco and nyc???  That evil Ron de santis must be stopped!!!


SF?   

SF is an example of what happens when people meet outside, mask up, and get their shots.

SF has a mask mandate, 70% vax rate, and vaccine passports.   SF also has cases lower than 2 weeks ago, plenty of staffed beds in the hospitals, and zero deaths per day.  It works.

The problem is actually solvable, if you don’t insist on being an idiot about it.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Poor baby…having to go look up the candidates. Treat yourself to an ice cream to make up for the hard work.


Finding someone to pick on part 2 is kind of difficult.   I’d consider a Democrat or a never-trump Republican, but there aren’t many of either on the ballot.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 13, 2021)

crush said:


> Evil, Dad, Husker Pooespola or IZ, please share sage advice with me.  What's in IT, what the ingredients is


As a known liar and cheat, not sure I'm anybody you should trust.  Nonetheless, since directed to me, the official ingredient list for the approved CoV-2 vaccines can be found in appendix C of this big CDC link.  Depending on how it loads in your browser you may need to scroll down to find Appendix C. Or it might just open up to it.





__





						Interim Clinical Considerations for Use of COVID-19 Vaccines | CDC
					

Find interim clinical considerations for the use of COVID-19 vaccines for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States.




					www.cdc.gov
				




If the parts list sounds like chemical gobbledygook, on the link below what are listed as the inactive ingredients of the vaccines essentially form a spherical membrane or shell that can fuse with your cells once the vaccine particles are injected.  The fusion delivers the active ingredient, which is what is shown in the middle.  That's the genetic instructions (either RNA or DNA depending on which vaccine) for making the CoV-2 spike protein. Your cells express the protein and antibodies get made to it.



			https://www.virology.ws/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/mRNA.png


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 13, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> a. The other corona viruses have a history of changing to avoid natural immunity.


The history has a long and short part.  The short part has to do with the ability of this particular Cvirus, with its once and future variants, to escape immune detection (natural or vaccine induced), versus the ability of the virus to initially outpace immune clearance due to increased replicative potential.  The data right now seems to be pointing at the latter.  Cviruses have big genomes and can encode lots of tricks.  But they are also under constraints and the molecular surfaces antibodies recognize can only change so much.  There is an interesting natural experiment that supports the idea that CoV-2 may not be able to change extensively enough to truly escape a previous immune response.  People who were infected during the 2003 SARS outbreak (CoV-1, which also recognizes Ace2 as the receptor) can be demonstrated to have antibodies that strongly recognize CoV-2.  

The long part of the history is where the true escape from immune detection comes in.  This is where different Cviruses infect the same cell, recombine, and produce a brand new Cvirus with new molecular surfaces that humans haven't really been exposed to before.  You might think, SARS, MERS, COVID, seems like this sort of thing is happening fairly regularly actually.  And the virologists who study human/viral environmental interactions jump up and down and say we've been screaming at everybody to pay attention.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 14, 2021)

espola said:


> The health authorities in most places are doing whatever they can to combat the disease.  Ron proudly claims that he is standing in the way.


Combat?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 14, 2021)

espola said:


> I'm smart enough to see that Ron D. is trying really hard to fill t's shoes.  Are you?


You sound hurt.....for a smart guy that is.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> SF?
> 
> SF is an example of what happens when people meet outside, mask up, and get their shots.
> 
> ...


Agree.


----------



## crush (Aug 14, 2021)

It's here and it's Blue!!! 


The *Lambda COVID* variant is in California:  It has Blue colors instead of red

-The emerging *lambda* variant has been popping up in the news lately ((ya, I heard))

-Experts say* lambda *could be more infectious and* resistant to vaccines *((oh oh, does that mean more boosters are needed))

So do Californians need to worry about this new variant? Not just yet.  ((oh joy))

*What is the lambda variant?  *((Ya, I want to know too))
The* lambda* variant — also known as “C.37.” *Lambda* may be *more infectious* than the original “wild type” coronavirus and may be *potentially resistant to current vaccines*, although more studies are needed.  The WHO thinks it's way worse.  ((Of course they do))

*Why am I hearing about lambda now? *((To scare the shit out of you some more))

More recently, two highly publicized laboratory studies from Japan and Chile – both in preprint and not yet peer-reviewed – have suggested that *lambda *may be* more infectious* and* less susceptible to current vaccines.  *((Oh bummer))

*Is lambda here in California? What about other states?  *((The headline said it was here))
Yes and yes.
Commercial and government laboratories test for variants by sequencing the genome of the coronavirus that caused a particular COVID-19 case and looking for mutations and changes in the virus’ characteristic *spike protein*.  ((I wonder what the Scientists have up their sleeves with this batch?))

*How does the lambda variant compare to other known variants?  *((Alpha and Delta))
The* Scientists* don’t yet know how *lambda’s *different genetic profile will affect community transmission, severity of symptoms or *vaccine resistance* around the world.* Some early clues are emerging. * ((Yes, the clues are out in the freaking open.  Basically, the clue is the vaccines will not work on Lambda and you and your family will need to get more jabs to continue having a job and enjoying the finer things in life, like bars, cruises, flying, eating out, buying & selling stuff and all the other beautiful things life brings for those WHO are jabbed.  The anti-jabbers are already kicked out of all the fun)).

The *Chilean researchers *tested* lambda* against antibodies from health care workers who received the Chinese-made Sinovac vaccine, finding that the *vaccine failed to work* as well as it did with the original virus.

*New York University researchers* tested lambda against the vaccines authorized in the United States and *found* that the *Johnson and Johnson* one-dose vaccine was *less effective* against it and the delta variant compared to the Pfizer and Moderna two-dose vaccines.

*Just because vaccines appear less effective* when pitted against* lambda* in a test tube ((nothing to worry about a jab can;t fix)) doesn’t mean they won’t protect against severe illness, said *Dr. Peter Chin-Hong*, a University of California, San Francisco infectious disease specialist. *Nearly *all *hospitalizations and deaths* in California and nationwide have *occurred in unvaccinated people.  *((oh really?  "Nearly" is an interesting choice of words Dr. Chin-Hong))

*Do I need to worry?*
*Not for now, Chin-Hong said*. ((Oh great, that sounds up lifting and promising)) “Delta’s aggressive all over the world and *lambda* hasn’t really taken off,” Chin-Hong said. “At the end of the day, it’s *survival of the fittest *


----------



## espola (Aug 14, 2021)




----------



## crush (Aug 14, 2021)

espola said:


> View attachment 11399


You are a sick bastard!!!  So many people hurting right about now Espola and this is your satire?  Get a life and buy a clue.  No kids playing soccer yet is on here 24/7.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 14, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Finding someone to pick on part 2 is kind of difficult.   I’d consider a Democrat or a never-trump Republican, but there aren’t many of either on the ballot.


you should consider meet Kevin. You might like he’s a big idea, details and procedures be damned, visionary type.  He’s also not very anti npi though he agrees newsom
Has handled everything unscientifically and with poor optics.  He’s big on executive orders and has some looney ideas like building a freeway under the 405 freeway.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 14, 2021)

crush said:


> You are a sick bastard!!!  So many people hurting right about now Espola and this is your satire?  Get a life and buy a clue.  No kids playing soccer yet is on here 24/7.


It’s also a stupid piece of propaganda. Like a stupid rewashed cloth mask is supposed to protect you.  Even Obama didn’t buy that with his party. A better piece would be: you think a sore arm and some side effects are bad, look at x.


----------



## crush (Aug 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> It’s also a stupid piece of propaganda. Like a stupid rewashed cloth mask is supposed to protect you.  Even Obama didn’t buy that with his party. A better piece would be: you think a sore arm and some side effects are bad, look at x.


Dude has lost it Grace.  Caught red handed too.  It's like a bank robber with red ink all over his face and he still in denial of what he and his friends did all because they hate one man ((and his followers)).  This is cultish behavior 101.  Poorespola is in a cult.  I can relate and I'm here to offer any help he might need later.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> you should consider meet Kevin. You might like he’s a big idea, details and procedures be damned, visionary type.  He’s also not very anti npi though he agrees newsom
> Has handled everything unscientifically and with poor optics.  He’s big on executive orders and has some looney ideas like building a freeway under the 405 freeway.


Kevin?  Good point.  

Kevin Paffrath for governor.


----------



## crush (Aug 14, 2021)

Oh boy, this is getting gnarly.  I have been called more things in two weeks then in my entire life combined.  I'm a religious fanatic, I'm against killing babies, I'm a moron, I'm against lying & cheating.  For all that, I'm now a drunk driver, freedom less, no jab no job,100% a Schmuck and I'm a potential terror threat now.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 14, 2021)

Some natural immunity analysis for dizzy:

Seroprevalence estimate from Jan 2021 put it at 20%









						SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in US Patients Receiving Dialysis 1 Year After COVID-19
					

This cross-sectional study uses data from a dialysis organization in the US to assess the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among patients receiving dialysis and to estimate the seroprevalence among the adult population 1 year into the COVID-19 pandemic.




					jamanetwork.com
				












						New Estimate Suggests Just 1 in 4 Americans Exposed to COVID-19 as of January
					

A new report, based on data from dialysis centers, suggests the US is far from reaching so-called “herd immunity.”



					www.contagionlive.com
				




Disclaimers say that antibodies last 4-6 months, so it misses some of the people who caught the virus early.  Also misses anyone who got sick since very early 2021.

correcting for that still puts it at under 50%.  Add in vaccines, you’re maybe at 70%.  But you need 90 or 95 for Delta.

So, 25% more infections or 25% more vaccinations.  Your choice.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> A good summary of the lack of mask data and the problems with the observational mask studies.
> 
> Do Masks Work? | City Journal (city-journal.org)


It basically shows the data on masks. And sorry @dad4 and others...there really are not any good studies out there showing masks make a difference.

"In sum, of the 14 RCTs that have tested the effectiveness of masks in preventing the transmission of respiratory viruses, three suggest, but do not provide any statistically significant evidence in intention-to-treat analysis, that masks might be useful. The other eleven suggest that masks are either useless—whether compared with no masks or because they appear not to add to good hand hygiene alone—or actually counterproductive."

We have decades of studies on mask effectiveness. When covid became political...suddenly various gov agencies around the world changed their mind and want masks.


----------



## crush (Aug 14, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 14, 2021)

I picked up a hitchhiker. He asked if I wasn’t afraid, he might be a serial killer? I told him the odds of two serial killers being in the same car were extremely unlikely.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 14, 2021)

This reminds me of people who think masks work... despite no evidence.



			https://www.bitsandpieces.us/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Trying-to-fill-up....mp4


----------



## crush (Aug 15, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> This reminds me of people who think masks work... despite no evidence.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bitsandpieces.us/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Trying-to-fill-up....mp4


*"Obey your leaders and submit to them, for they are keeping watch over your souls, as those who will have to give an account. Let them do this with joy and not with groaning, for that would be of no advantage to you."  Hebrews 13:17

Do not entertain an accusation against an elder unless it is brought by two or three witnesses." I Tim 5:19*

Check this out Hound.  My buddy finally left the cult he was getting played at for over 33 years.  The straw that broke his back was the full time Elders/Ministers playing a video the other day telling the members that they need to obey the leadership of the church and the governing authorities of the Biden Admin and get the jab as to make nice with everyone.  I'm not making this up at all.  The true fact is in order for these Elders to make $200,000 + a year ((401b3, free housing, ect in benefit package)) they have to obey the city leaders to stay open.  It's weird to see some churches take a hardline stand like, "never" and then some just cave in to keep their high pay.  Many industries are in a tough spot.  I like home church now with just my wife and I  My dd is free to do as she pleases and is always invited to Crush's House Church. I dont push Jesus on anyone anymore. That is personal choice, moo


----------



## crush (Aug 15, 2021)

*From the Great OC.........*

*After a spike in COVID-19 cases during the winter surge dropped off dramatically in spring and early summer, Orange County government – one of the county’s largest employers, with more than 16,000 workers at numerous locations – is seeing infections rise again.*


----------



## crush (Aug 15, 2021)

All CNN & Fox are preaching today is the "Fall of kabul."  Afghan President just bailed and flew the hell out of Kabul.  I dont know who is who and what is what.  I dont believe anything anymore.  I just hope I dont have to get a jab to buy or sell.  I do pray for all the men & woman stuck in the middle as these assholes play war games of "Us vs Them."  No more war please.  Come on, no more hate.


----------



## crush (Aug 15, 2021)

This is example of the "Us vs Them" that the Atheist Mr. Soros wants us to jump into.  No one kicked anyone's ass.  Cops stood around watching them duke it out.  This looked staged to me, moo!









						Anti-Maskers Kick Antifa Ass In Los Angeles
					

Donate and support our work: https://earthnewspaper.com/index.php/donate  Massive Fist Fight Breaks Out In Los Angeles Protest Between Anti-Maskers And Antifa Ordinary people from different walks of life spontaneously gathering to fight against t…




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 16, 2021)

Australia still can’t get its delta outbreak under control despite troops in the street and months long lockdown.


----------



## crush (Aug 16, 2021)

Listening to this guy now makes me sick.  I was so brainwashed.  Wow, these folks tricked the shit out of so many people.  War sucks!!!  









						Meanwhile, 20 years ago
					

Meanwhile, 20 years ago  https://t.me/DevonStack/1638




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## crush (Aug 16, 2021)

War Vampires!!


----------



## crush (Aug 16, 2021)

War is big business and a way for many to become rich as our kids are killed or lose a leg or arm or both.  We need a major overhaul and clean up job asap so this NEVER happens again.  War sucks, especially when people profit off of death and destruction.  WTF up people!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 16, 2021)

Chinese News Network Headline News:  *Taliban Take Afghanistan*

Some guy named Kyle Becker said a reporter was trying to ask the VP a Q about Afghanistan and she just walked away.  Someone said they could hear her say something like, "they will not pin this s*** on me."  My good pal Bruno is asking if we would also keep Haiti in our thoughts and if you pray, please pray for them.  The President was assassinated for not allowing the Jab to into their country and now they get with with a 7.2 and thousand dead and missing as I type.  My wife's friend husband is not doing good.  Docs can;t figure out what's going on.  Not fun for Gary.  Lastly, big Audit news coming out of AZ and Bull Durham has some news coming.  Talk about a Drip, Drip, Drip marketing campaign.  Plus, Hunter has three Lap Tops directly from hell ((poor guy was born into this shit, I swear.  Look at Dudes tattoo on his back)) and he gets to make $500,000 for a painting.  All of this is crazy, really cray cray folks.  My advice is to be a good person, stop cheating & lying and help others at this time.  Things are just heating up.  The mask debate will be nothing compared to what's coming.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 16, 2021)




----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 16, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Some natural immunity analysis for dizzy:
> 
> Seroprevalence estimate from Jan 2021 put it at 20%
> 
> ...


1,025 new cases in San Diego today.  0 deaths.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 17, 2021)

Ridiculous.

"WELLINGTON, New Zealand – New Zealand's government took drastic action Tuesday by putting the entire nation into a strict lockdown for at least three days after finding a single case of coronavirus infection in the community."









						New Zealand to enter nationwide lockdown after single coronavirus case found
					

New Zealand's government took drastic action Tuesday by putting the entire nation into a strict lockdown for at least three days after finding a single case of coronavirus infection in the community.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 17, 2021)

Los Angeles county has accelerated the mask thing by requiring it now at large outdoor gatherings such as sporting events, concerts and presumably protests, regardless of vaccine status.  It wasn't ever going to end at just masks indoors and I'm fairly surely they aren't done yet.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Los Angeles county has accelerated the mask thing by requiring it now at large outdoor gatherings such as sporting events, concerts and presumably protests, regardless of vaccine status.  It wasn't ever going to end at just masks indoors and I'm fairly surely they aren't done yet.


Why would you expect public health officials to weaken disease prevention efforts while cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all growing?

That's like watching a building burn and asking when the fire department will finally shut off the water.

Is 700 deaths per day not enough for you?  Do we need 1400 or 2800 before it is worth mitigating?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 17, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Why would you expect public health officials to weaken disease prevention efforts while cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all growing?
> 
> That's like watching a building burn and asking when the fire department will finally shut off the water.
> 
> Is 700 deaths per day not enough for you?  Do we need 1400 or 2800 before it is worth mitigating?


This is an I told you so moment.  I told you so it wouldn't stop at an indoor mask mandate.  I'm sure you would say if cases continue to rise Los Angeles should shut down indoor bars, dining and gyms....you would support that if and when it happens, correct?


----------



## dad4 (Aug 17, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This is an I told you so moment.  I told you so it wouldn't stop at an indoor mask mandate.  I'm sure you would say if cases continue to rise Los Angeles should shut down indoor bars, dining and gyms....you would support that if and when it happens, correct?


Should we close bars?  How about we shutdown indoor bars, restaurants and gyms, but only for the unvaccinated?   That one I already support.  

But expanding it to a total ban just makes it less effective at a higher cost.  Thumbs down on that.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 18, 2021)

> "dad4, post: 403361, member: 6565but only for the unvaccinated?   That one I already support.


But what if they have already had Covid? Why would they still need to be vaccinated? 

It is already been proven that vaccines do not prevent you from getting or spreading the Delta variant, however there are no numbers showing whether or not those with an auto immunity from having Covid already are still capable of getting and spreading Covid/Delta at the same rate as the vaccinated.  

Why should this portion of our society be banned from a normal life wow the vaccinated live “free”?


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> But what if they have already had Covid? Why would they still need to be vaccinated?
> 
> It is already been proven that vaccines do not prevent you from getting or spreading the Delta variant, however there are no numbers showing whether or not those with an auto immunity from having Covid already are still capable of getting and spreading Covid/Delta at the same rate as the vaccinated.
> 
> Why should this portion of our society be banned from a normal life wow the vaccinated live “free”?


The problem we have is the following. 

- People who want to get vaccinated have. The have protected themselves. 
- The vaccinated still spread the virus. There is no point pretending otherwise. The virus isn't going anywhere. It is endemic. 
- The non vaccinated have also chosen not to be vaccinated. They also spread the virus. 

So we are left with a virus that will spread through the vaxxed or the non vaxxed. Those that want protection have it. Those that chose not to have also made their choice. 

At that point we should move on. 

Pretending that allowing non vaxxed to enter into a place is an issue when the vaxxed people who are allowed to enter still spread the virus is idiocy. The virus spreads no matter what and no matter if one is vaxxed or not.


----------



## crush (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *How about we shutdown indoor bars, restaurants and gyms, but only for the unvaccinated? * That one I already support


Dude, you must have OCD and come from the bloodline of Howard Hughes.  You can have it all, everything you want. I only ask for free access to the ocean and my little piece of land.  I can live off all that and will be super stoked and happy with juts my wfie and a few friends who think like us.  At this point, only those who support freedom of choice are allowed on my land.  You and all those just like you can have all the public schools, health care system, pro sports teams, bars, jobs, big box, media, Hollywood, ESPN, Big U, Disneyland, TV Land, cruise ships, hooters, strip joints, all the booz you want and all the meat you can stuff your arteries with. Crush will grow his own and look to share with others who are like minded and who look out for others and who care for others besides themselves.  I can't live among people who kill their babies, support the sell of their lungs, brains and little hearts for profit to scientist WHO use the parts for experiments for vaccines.  I can't live among those WHO support forcing kids to wear a mask at school all day and if they dont, no sports or social life.  I can;t live among people WHO supports Employers who are like the Terminator and make worker feel like Schmuck if they are second guessing the idea of taking experimental injections during war time.  I surely can't live among dads WHO think it's perfectly find for a nurse to be fired because she wont get jabbed.  I will never live among someone WHO thinks like you Dad, Husker, Poorespola and a few others on here who are so exposed by the light, it's obvious.  Mr. Orangeman really did a number on some of you.  Exposed!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Should we close bars?  How about we shutdown indoor bars, restaurants and gyms, but only for the unvaccinated?   That one I already support.
> 
> But expanding it to a total ban just makes it less effective at a higher cost.  Thumbs down on that.


The numbers have not supported a total ban since May of 2020.  But you people ignored IFR's and hyped the cases.  You're addicted to Panic Porn.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> But what if they have already had Covid? Why would they still need to be vaccinated?
> 
> It is already been proven that vaccines do not prevent you from getting or spreading the Delta variant, however there are no numbers showing whether or not those with an auto immunity from having Covid already are still capable of getting and spreading Covid/Delta at the same rate as the vaccinated.
> 
> Why should this portion of our society be banned from a normal life wow the vaccinated live “free”?


I will let the immunologists say whether a positive antibody test or previous positive PCR test is as good as a vaccine.  If they say yes, then yes.  If they say no, then no.

Thinking you have had covid, with no test, is not as good as a vaccine.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> The problem we have is the following.
> 
> - People who want to get vaccinated have. The have protected themselves.
> - The vaccinated still spread the virus. There is no point pretending otherwise. The virus isn't going anywhere. It is endemic.
> ...


It hurts my head just reading this. 

Data is being cherry picked to support big pharma bank accounts.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

*George Mason Univ. Caves to NCLA’s Lawsuit over Vaccine Mandate, Grants Prof. Medical Exemption Aug 17, 2021*

*Washington, DC (August 17, 2021)* – *The New Civil Liberties Alliance is pleased to announce today that George Mason University (GMU) has granted a medical exemption from its mandatory Covid-19 vaccination policy to NCLA client Todd Zywicki, George Mason University Foundation Professor of Law at Antonin Scalia Law School. NCLA is delighted with Prof. Zywicki’s victory for freedom. His brave determination to fight the university’s misguided and scientifically unsound vaccination mandate has garnered nationwide attention. GMU and other universities must stop ignoring science and cease forcing mandatory vaccines on even those with naturally acquired immunity (especially if only approved under a federal Emergency Use Authorization statute).*

Strangely, despite solid scientific evidence, GMU continues to refuse to recognize that Covid-19 vaccination is medically unnecessary for ALL students, faculty, and staff with naturally acquired immunity demonstrated with antibody testing. At times GMU officials have appeared to deny that such a thing as naturally acquired immunity exists. This refusal is particularly odd, as the efficacy of the very vaccines GMU wishes to mandate are measured against levels of natural immunity acquired by those who have recovered from Covid-19.  For this reason, NCLA continues to explore litigation against GMU. We also welcome hearing from others on public-university campuses in Virginia—particularly tenured faculty—who have naturally acquired immunity backed by antibody testing and whose schools are similarly disregarding the scientific facts surrounding naturally acquired immunity.

NCLA filed Professor Zywicki’s complaint in the Eastern District of Virginia on August 3, 2021, challenging GMU’s “reopening policy.” The policy, announced June 28, requires all faculty and staff members, including those who can demonstrate natural immunity through recovery from a prior Covid-19 infection, to disclose their vaccination status as “a prerequisite for eligibility for any merit pay increases,” unless they obtain a religious or medical exemption. On July 22, GMU emailed the policy to students and employees and threatened disciplinary action—including termination of employment—against any who do not comply with the vaccine mandate. The university’s website describing its vaccination policy reiterated this threat.

*Prof. Zywicki has already contracted and fully recovered from Covid-19. As a result, he has acquired robust natural immunity, confirmed unequivocally by multiple positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests conducted over the past year. In fact, Prof. Zywicki’s immunologist, Dr. Hooman Noorchashm, has advised him that, based on his personal health and immunity status, it is medically unnecessary to get a Covid-19 vaccine—and that it violates medical ethics to order unnecessary procedures.*

As a result of the exemption it granted, GMU is permitting Prof. Zywicki to remain unvaccinated for medical reasons. GMU has assured Prof. Zywicki that he will not be subject to disciplinary action, and that he will be allowed to hold office hours and attend in-person events provided he maintains six feet of distance. He must get tested for Covid-19 once per week on campus at no cost to himself. This favorable result should encourage others to fight irrational vaccine mandates elsewhere on the same bases laid out in the Zywicki complaint against GMU.

NCLA, a nonpartisan, nonprofit civil rights group, argued in the lawsuit that under GMU’s flawed reopening policy, unvaccinated professors cannot carry out their responsibilities as effectively as their vaccinated counterparts, jeopardizing teaching evaluations, future student enrollment, opportunities for academic collaboration, reputational standing, pay raises, and other professional opportunities. Because these requirements would have diminished Prof. Zywicki’s efficacy in performing his professional responsibilities, the policy would have coerced him into receiving the vaccine.

*NCLA released the following statements:*

“NCLA is pleased that GMU granted Professor Zywicki’s medical exemption, which we believe it only did because he filed this lawsuit. According to GMU, with the medical exemption, Prof. Zywicki may continue serving the GMU community, as he has for more than two decades, without receiving a medically unnecessary vaccine and without undue burden. Nevertheless, NCLA remains dismayed by GMU’s refusal—along with many other public and private universities and other employers—to recognize that the science establishes beyond any doubt that natural immunity is as robust or more so than vaccine immunity.”
— *Jenin Younes, NCLA Litigation Counsel and lead counsel in Zywicki v. Washington, et al.*

“I am gratified that George Mason has given me a medical exemption to allow me to fulfill my duties this fall semester in light of unprecedented circumstances. Thanks to NCLA, we have increased public awareness that vaccinating the naturally immune is medically unnecessary and presents an elevated risk of harm to Covid-19 survivors. I speak for tens of millions of Americans in the same circumstances I am in, and I call on leaders across the country to develop humane and science-based approaches as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies.”
— *Todd Zywicki, George Mason University Foundation Professor of Law, Antonin Scalia Law School*


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

Brumby tweets…

Sweden’s 7-day average COVID deaths have been at ZERO for about a month now.

I feel like its only a matter of time before the very existence of a place called Sweden is scrubbed from the internet.


----------



## crush (Aug 18, 2021)

Hey, this is what one dude had to say about the endless war in the Middle East that T 100% was against and what he thinks what-happened over there.  Watch what brother Assange had to say back in the day regarding Afghanistan.  The Sons of Afghanistan didnt have much to do last 40 sum years either with their choices.  Heroine Scientist or Poppy Picker is not much of a choice or be a radical terrorist.  It's hard to tell WHO is Who these days so just be patient and the truth will come out dude.  Mr. Wiki knows his stuff so I would listen to what he knows.  He has it all.  Sick shit you guys.  Watch and then look at Uncle John's picture.  They do look alike and Uncle John was best pals with Nikolia.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I will let the immunologists say whether a positive antibody test or previous positive PCR test is as good as a vaccine.  If they say yes, then yes.  If they say no, then no.
> 
> Thinking you have had covid, with no test, is not as good as a vaccine.


"you’re peddling panic porn – which has become a lethal collective addiction."


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I will let the immunologists say whether a positive antibody test or previous positive PCR test is as good as a vaccine.  If they say yes, then yes.  If they say no, then no.
> 
> Thinking you have had covid, with no test, is not as good as a vaccine.


Who said anything about “thinking you’ve had it”.  I would agree there.  My point is, you want everyone to “show your papers” to be able to attend events, eat in restaurants and so on, based on Vaccine status when in fact having had the virus (and surviving like over 98% of the cases have) appears to be better than having gotten the Vax.  So why should those be denied entry?

Do you agree or not?


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I will let the immunologists say whether a positive antibody test or previous positive PCR test is as good as a vaccine.  If they say yes, then yes.  If they say no, then no.
> 
> Thinking you have had covid, with no test, is not as good as a vaccine.


I know a few trump lovers (i.e. it’s a hoax, it’s not that serious, anti mask, anti vaccine, anti science, can’t hurt children . . . talk about a list of contradictory statements!) who have sworn they had the Covid and fought it off no problem. “Did you test positive?” “No, but I know it was the Covid!”


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Who said anything about “thinking you’ve had it”.  I would agree there.  My point is, you want everyone to “show your papers” to be able to attend events, eat in restaurants and so on, based on Vaccine status when in fact having had the virus (and surviving like over 98% of the cases have) appears to be better than having gotten the Vax.  So why should those be denied entry?
> 
> Do you agree or not?


“Appears”? According to who?


----------



## crush (Aug 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Who said anything about “thinking you’ve had it”.  I would agree there.  My point is, you want everyone to “show your papers” to be able to attend events, eat in restaurants and so on, based on Vaccine status when in fact having had the virus (and surviving like over 98% of the cases have) appears to be better than having gotten the Vax.  So why should those be denied entry?
> 
> Do you agree or not?


No jab no ECNL I bet is next on Dad's list of kicking people out who think critically and know for a fact they got this virus back in Jan 2020.  All I ever do is ask the tough questions.  I know it's coming Kicker, I feel it.  No jab, no sports in California.  Jabs+ mask 24/7+ Boosters when we tell you to roll up sleeve= the good life   No jab, no entry.  No jab, no job.  No jab, no nothing.  These people are ruthless son's of bitches.  Their scared little men who can;t handle a different point of view.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Who said anything about “thinking you’ve had it”.  I would agree there.  My point is, you want everyone to “show your papers” to be able to attend events, eat in restaurants and so on, based on Vaccine status when in fact having had the virus (and surviving like over 98% of the cases have) appears to be better than having gotten the Vax.  So why should those be denied entry?
> 
> Do you agree or not?


If a prior infection is as effective as a vaccine, then verified prior infections should also count.  But they probably won’t.

Anti-vax people with prior infections are not very popular in places with high vax rates.  There is a lot of anger at the anti-mask, anti-vax contingent, based on the accurate belief that they helped cause this by running around spreading it the last 15 months.   I would not expect the SF or NY public health officials to carve out an extra exemption for anti-vax folks who get themselves infected.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Brumby tweets…
> 
> Sweden’s 7-day average COVID deaths have been at ZERO for about a month now.
> 
> I feel like its only a matter of time before the very existence of a place called Sweden is scrubbed from the internet.


Not scrubbed so much.  Its just that twitter science has maybe a 2 week memory.  Sweden's early "dry tinder" wave is, so to speak, dead and buried at this point.  Going all Balfour is all well and good.  I mean its definitely one way to go.  But then you need alternative polices to specifically protect the vulnerable (elderly in this case) against community transmission.  Sweden didn't do as good a job as they needed to there.  

Did you ever check out what "herd immunity" in Sweden might mean with ~20% sero-positivity?  Seriously, might be more interesting than misappropriating any death/case ratio that you come across as an IFR.  I suspect "Brumby" may not be much help however.  Search term "PAMP innate immunity".


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 18, 2021)

crush said:


> War Vampires!!
> 
> View attachment 11421


Since we like quotes here-
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out."


----------



## watfly (Aug 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Appears”? According to who?


A study of 43,000 concluded the following regarding "natural immunity":
_"Reinfection is rare. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months"._
Disclaimer: this study was pre-Delta


			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/02/08/2021.01.15.21249731.full.pdf
		


Another study concluded the following for "breakthrough infections" for the vaccinated:
_"All authorized COVID-19 vaccines demonstrated efficacy (range 65% to 95%) against symptomatic, laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in adults ≥18 years."_
Please note that this is only for "symptomatic" infection and not for all infections.  So its safe to assume the efficacy for all infections would be lower, maybe much lower. Disclaimer: Unclear as to whether any of the symptomatic infections were Delta.








						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## crush (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Since we like quotes here-
> "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out."


Who said that?  Interesting.  I'm going deep everyday.  My brain is so open to new ideas and frontiers.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I will let the immunologists say whether a positive antibody test or previous positive PCR test is as good as a vaccine.  If they say yes, then yes.  If they say no, then no.
> 
> Thinking you have had covid, with no test, is not as good as a vaccine.


It's unfortunate the criterion of circulating antibody levels is being either misunderstood or deliberately misused in some cases.  With a natural infection, symptomtic or not, the immune systems"sees" a large number of different surfaces of the virus.  There is therefore a large antibody production response and a high titer of circulating antibodies.  However, only a relatively small fraction of these antibodies can block the interaction between the spike protein and the Ace2 receptor, and thus prevent a second infection.  The circulating levels of those so-called neutralizing antibodies will drop over time, at which point offsetting a second infection will require "waking up" the immune system memory cells to produce those antibodies from scratch.  

With the vaccine the absolute AMOUNT of circulating antibody after the second booster may not be as high as natural infection, But the FRACTION of those antibodies that can block the interaction between the spike protein and Ace2 is higher, since that is the only target the immune system is seeing.  As with natural infection, the level of those antibodies will decline over time as well, at which point antibody production will require waking up the memory cells.  But studies have shown that a very high fraction of the resulting memory cells arising after vaxx can produce potent neutralizing antibodies. Which is why the vaccines are working so well at uncoupling cases and deaths in high vaxxed vulnerable people. Even if a second infection gets established eventually that sweet immunity kicks in and takes care of things.  The same thing happens with natural immunity too, but the spectrum of antibodies that can produced upon re-infection is more hit and miss.

Anyway the total antibody concentration stuff is being misappropriated to argue natural immunity is better than the vaxx, which is just kind of silly.  How long circulating antibody levels can be sustained at levels necesessary to directly prevent re-infection in either case is subject to lots of variables. And with a high replicating variant like delta keeping circulating neutralizing antibody levels high enough to prevent any sort of viral propagation is going to be really challenging, no matter how you prime the immune system, especially with a super sensitize detection method like PCR.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 18, 2021)

crush said:


> Who said that?  Interesting.  I'm going deep everyday.  My brain is so open to new ideas and frontiers.


Attributed to Karl Rove


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Appears”? According to who?


Prove me wrong and I’ll accept it.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> It's unfortunate the criterion of circulating antibody levels is being either misunderstood or deliberately misused in some cases.  With a natural infection, symptomtic or not, the immune systems"sees" a large number of different surfaces of the virus.  There is therefore a large antibody production response and a high titer of circulating antibodies.  However, only a relatively small fraction of these antibodies can block the interaction between the spike protein and the Ace2 receptor, and thus prevent a second infection.  The circulating levels of those so-called neutralizing antibodies will drop over time, at which point offsetting a second infection will require "waking up" the immune system memory cells to produce those antibodies from scratch.
> 
> With the vaccine the absolute AMOUNT of circulating antibody after the second booster may not be as high as natural infection, But the FRACTION of those antibodies that can block the interaction between the spike protein and Ace2 is higher, since that is the only target the immune system is seeing.  As with natural infection, the level of those antibodies will decline over time as well, at which point antibody production will require waking up the memory cells.  But studies have shown that a very high fraction of the resulting memory cells arising after vaxx can produce potent neutralizing antibodies. Which is why the vaccines are working so well at uncoupling cases and deaths in high vaxxed vulnerable people. Even if a second infection gets established eventually that sweet immunity kicks in and takes care of things.  The same thing happens with natural immunity too, but the spectrum of antibodies that can produced upon re-infection is more hit and miss.
> 
> Anyway the total antibody concentration stuff is being misappropriated to argue natural immunity is better than the vaxx, which is just kind of silly.  How long circulating antibody levels can be sustained at levels necesessary to directly prevent re-infection in either case is subject to lots of variables. And with a high replicating variant like delta keeping circulating neutralizing antibody levels high enough to prevent any sort of viral propagation is going to be really challenging, no matter how you prime the immune system, especially with a super sensitize detection method like PCR.


So basically, with “Natural immunity” it can fade and possibly need to be “awoken” after some time which could lead to more severe complications, is that what you are deducing here?  

Now that they are calling for Booster shots for the Vax’d, wouldn’t that kind of fall into the “need to wake up the antibodies” theory?  

All in all, we do t have long term data either way.


----------



## crush (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Attributed to Karl Rove


Old Karl.  I watched him back in the old days on Fox.  Is he still at Fox?  I seriously do not have TV.  I just surf online for now.  My wife and I are going offline soon and I can;t wait.  Were just going to live off the land that is all of ours to share.  We have lived as a people a very selfish life, moo.  One that is all about self and not others, especially the kids.  Not everyone lived like this but many have.  This is not a time to be selfish, trust me.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Not scrubbed so much.  Its just that twitter science has maybe a 2 week memory.  Sweden's early "dry tinder" wave is, so to speak, dead and buried at this point.  Going all Balfour is all well and good.  I mean its definitely one way to go.  But then you need alternative polices to specifically protect the vulnerable (elderly in this case) against community transmission.  Sweden didn't do as good a job as they needed to there.


How could they have done better?  And better than who?  They did better than most of the panicked world according to their needs.  Not the socialist one size fits all policies that have been peddled throughout the world.



EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Did you ever check out what "herd immunity" in Sweden might mean with ~20% sero-positivity?  Seriously, might be more interesting than misappropriating any death/case ratio that you come across as an IFR.  I suspect "Brumby" may not be much help however.  Search term "PAMP innate immunity".


What could be more interesting than zero deaths over the last month given that "Sweden didn't do as good a job as they needed to there."


----------



## dad4 (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> It's unfortunate the criterion of circulating antibody levels is being either misunderstood or deliberately misused in some cases.  With a natural infection, symptomtic or not, the immune systems"sees" a large number of different surfaces of the virus.  There is therefore a large antibody production response and a high titer of circulating antibodies.  However, only a relatively small fraction of these antibodies can block the interaction between the spike protein and the Ace2 receptor, and thus prevent a second infection.  The circulating levels of those so-called neutralizing antibodies will drop over time, at which point offsetting a second infection will require "waking up" the immune system memory cells to produce those antibodies from scratch.
> 
> With the vaccine the absolute AMOUNT of circulating antibody after the second booster may not be as high as natural infection, But the FRACTION of those antibodies that can block the interaction between the spike protein and Ace2 is higher, since that is the only target the immune system is seeing.  As with natural infection, the level of those antibodies will decline over time as well, at which point antibody production will require waking up the memory cells.  But studies have shown that a very high fraction of the resulting memory cells arising after vaxx can produce potent neutralizing antibodies. Which is why the vaccines are working so well at uncoupling cases and deaths in high vaxxed vulnerable people. Even if a second infection gets established eventually that sweet immunity kicks in and takes care of things.  The same thing happens with natural immunity too, but the spectrum of antibodies that can produced upon re-infection is more hit and miss.
> 
> Anyway the total antibody concentration stuff is being misappropriated to argue natural immunity is better than the vaxx, which is just kind of silly.  How long circulating antibody levels can be sustained at levels necesessary to directly prevent re-infection in either case is subject to lots of variables. And with a high replicating variant like delta keeping circulating neutralizing antibody levels high enough to prevent any sort of viral propagation is going to be really challenging, no matter how you prime the immune system, especially with a super sensitize detection method like PCR.


Is there any good evidence on the degree to which prior infections are effective at limiting Delta infections?


----------



## crush (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *Anti-vax people with prior infections are not very popular in places with high vax rates.  There is a lot of anger at the anti-mask, anti-vax contingent, based on the accurate belief that they helped cause this by running around spreading it the last 15 months.*


So far everyone I know who got Jabbed twice have been super cool with me.  Everyone!!!  My wife's whole family got jabbed and we just left their place last week.  Hugs and kisses from each group, vax and non vax.  All together, eating and drinking together.  No one got sick......yet....lol!  All of the one's who got jabbed have been sick a few times in last 18 months ((not my family of four though, except my dd got a little sniffle)). My neighbors all got jabbed too.  No one is blaming me for their personal illnesses dude except you.  WTF do you live again?  What a horrible place to live, moo!!!!  My pal who lives up in Kirkland, WA is super cool.  He invited me up for a BBQ next week.  He said his whole neighborhood got the shots a long time ago and all is super good.  Mask wearing to keep the peace but nothing else like, "your not invited."  What a complete asshole you are dad the neighbor."  I think you have problems and you really should stay home and seek some mental help.  Really dad, sit this one out. You have Fearoflightis really bad.  
Dear Lord, Angels & Heavenly Realm, I pray for Dad of 4 kids who is causing so much division on this planet with all his fear.  He;s trying to sperate us all, all because he thinks some of us are unclean because we would NOT take the shots from Bill and Dr. F.  I pray Father that you help dad out tonight in a dream that he's wrong and does not have a clue on what he's talking about.  He's just divisive with his writings.  Please also help Evil Goalie, Husker, EOTL, Messy and that poor fella, Espoal see the Light.  For Jorge Soros and the others who were born to be evil, please take them away ASAP.  In Christ name I pray, Amen!  Now that felt great.  God bless you all and God Bless America and God please help us now!!!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Appears”? According to who?


Funny watching you dervishes questioning the validity of cases without thinking....as usual.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So basically, with “Natural immunity” it can fade and possibly need to be “awoken” after some time which could lead to more severe complications, is that what you are deducing here?
> 
> Now that they are calling for Booster shots for the Vax’d, wouldn’t that kind of fall into the “need to wake up the antibodies” theory?
> 
> All in all, we do t have long term data either way.


The immunity is "natural" either with vaxx or infection.  Different ways of triggering the same body process.  Lets say just vaxxed or recently infected. Antibody levels will be high.  Breath in some virus.  They infect nasal eipthelial cells which release more virus.  In that case the antibodies bind to the virus that is released from those cells and immediately prevent those particles from further infecting other cells.  Note that a nasal swap PCR test might still be able to detect that small level of virus.  But say its 9 months out from infection or vaxx.  Now you breath the virus in and it infects nasal epithelial cells.  But the antibody levels in circulator system have declined.  So can't immediately stop it, especially with something like delta which releases 10X or greater viral particle per infected cell compared to alpha.  Depending on how well your immune system is functioning-the wake up time-the infection may progress into lower respiratory track for example.  But antibody levels are now going up again, and eventually reattain a concentration to neutralize the infection.  So the timing of antibody levels going down and getting started up again can really vary in different people.  That's why its a difficult thing to say either natural infection vs vaxx is better one way or another at preventing reinfection. Just know with vaxx alot of the memory cells that are formed will produce the right kind of antibodies to offset second infection if at high enough circulating levels.

And you are right.  The "keep the circulating antibody levels high" idea is exactly why the talk of boosters is picking up. It's  to try and drive down community transmission, not to keep susceptible people from getting COVID.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> , especially with a super sensitize detection method like PCR.


I like how your concluding sentence touches on one of the main issues with what we are doing.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If a prior infection is as effective as a vaccine, then verified prior infections should also count.  But they probably won’t.
> 
> Anti-vax people with prior infections are not very popular in places with high vax rates.  There is a lot of anger at the anti-mask, anti-vax contingent, based on the accurate belief that they helped cause this by running around spreading it the last 15 months.   I would not expect the SF or NY public health officials to carve out an extra exemption for anti-vax folks who get themselves infected.


Let's see how the high vax areas respond to a mandated third shot.  Lol!!


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> It's unfortunate the criterion of circulating antibody levels is being either misunderstood or deliberately misused in some cases.  With a natural infection, symptomtic or not, the immune systems"sees" a large number of different surfaces of the virus.  There is therefore a large antibody production response and a high titer of circulating antibodies.  However, only a relatively small fraction of these antibodies can block the interaction between the spike protein and the Ace2 receptor, and thus prevent a second infection.  The circulating levels of those so-called neutralizing antibodies will drop over time, at which point offsetting a second infection will require "waking up" the immune system memory cells to produce those antibodies from scratch.
> 
> With the vaccine the absolute AMOUNT of circulating antibody after the second booster may not be as high as natural infection, But the FRACTION of those antibodies that can block the interaction between the spike protein and Ace2 is higher, since that is the only target the immune system is seeing.  As with natural infection, the level of those antibodies will decline over time as well, at which point antibody production will require waking up the memory cells.  But studies have shown that a very high fraction of the resulting memory cells arising after vaxx can produce potent neutralizing antibodies. Which is why the vaccines are working so well at uncoupling cases and deaths in high vaxxed vulnerable people. Even if a second infection gets established eventually that sweet immunity kicks in and takes care of things.  The same thing happens with natural immunity too, but the spectrum of antibodies that can produced upon re-infection is more hit and miss.
> 
> Anyway the total antibody concentration stuff is being misappropriated to argue natural immunity is better than the vaxx, which is just kind of silly.  How long circulating antibody levels can be sustained at levels necesessary to directly prevent re-infection in either case is subject to lots of variables. And with a high replicating variant like delta keeping circulating neutralizing antibody levels high enough to prevent any sort of viral propagation is going to be really challenging, no matter how you prime the immune system, especially with a super sensitize detection method like PCR.


You're not describing anything new above


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Is there any good evidence on the degree to which prior infections are effective at limiting Delta infections?


Yes.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 18, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Is there any good evidence on the degree to which prior infections are effective at limiting Delta infections?


Maybe.  IMO would have to normalize for lots of other variables.  I think the confidence intervals would be large so need big numbers to say anything with statistical relevance.  

Kind of ironic but I think there is an argument that the best way to drive down community transmission with delta is low tech NPIs.  But it would take substantial buy in and in this country its just not going to happen.  I came across a nice review of masks a bit ago, peer reviewed, well done, not a think tank thing.  Went through the history of how masks have been around long time, interwoven into basic concepts of hygiene.  Mamma saying "grab a damn tissue when you sneeze and don't double dip the guac".  Same idea.  And now epidemiologists have these mathematical models where can plug in different participation rates, different R0s and see how much buy in need to make a difference.  

The study I'd like to see right now is how much neutralizing Ab memory is out there in the <12 year old crowd.  Since its probably still going to be a bit since they have the option for the jab.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> You're not describing anything new above


Shrug.  Didn't write it for you.  Go miscalculate another IFR.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

On the effectiveness of masks, a good summary of evidence. Note mask mandates may "work" where masks themselves don't, because forced to wear masks many people choose not to go out in the first place. But mandatory dunce caps would work as well for that.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Shrug.  Didn't write it for you.  Go miscalculate another IFR.


Not hard to do with a PCR test.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 18, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Prove me wrong and I’ll accept it.











						People who've had COVID, twice as likely to get reinfected than those who get vaccinated, CDC says
					

Residents who were infected with COVID in 2020 experienced a reinfection between May and June of 2021. That's the same time the Delta variant intensified across the country.




					abc7news.com


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 18, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> How could they have done better?  And better than who?  They did better than most of the panicked world according to their needs.  Not the socialist one size fits all policies that have been peddled throughout the world.
> 
> What could be more interesting than zero deaths over the last month given that "Sweden didn't do as good a job as they needed to there."


Late last year Internal government study concluded that with their approach to the pandemic they needed to implement better isolation of nursing homes patients to prevent their big first wave.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 18, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I like how your concluding sentence touches on one of the main issues with what we are doing.


that's why studies like the one I posted earlier with the Ct values are key.  A lot of what the media are calling breakthrough infections are probably not much of an infection at all.  At any rate, beats the human Ace2 adapted gerbil test.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Maybe.  IMO would have to normalize for lots of other variables.  I think the confidence intervals would be large so need big numbers to say anything with statistical relevance.
> 
> Kind of ironic but I think there is an argument that the best way to drive down community transmission with delta is low tech NPIs.  But it would take substantial buy in and in this country its just not going to happen.  I came across a nice review of masks a bit ago, peer reviewed, well done, not a think tank thing.  Went through the history of how masks have been around long time, interwoven into basic concepts of hygiene.  Mamma saying "grab a damn tissue when you sneeze and don't double dip the guac".  Same idea.  And now epidemiologists have these mathematical models where can plug in different participation rates, different R0s and see how much buy in need to make a difference.
> 
> The study I'd like to see right now is how much neutralizing Ab memory is out there in the <12 year old crowd.  Since its probably still going to be a bit since they have the option for the jab.


The low level npis aren’t driving down cases in heavily vaccinated Israel or Iceland. Even if you assume argue so they did something against covid prime, they don’t seem to be working as well against the delta. Even Oster has said cloth masks are useless.  At this point by way of masking you are looking at n95s on everyone (which for kids in school is not a low level intervention) or surgicals with some enhancement.  Even with heavy handed npis australia is struggling to contain the delta


----------



## dad4 (Aug 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> People who've had COVID, twice as likely to get reinfected than those who get vaccinated, CDC says
> 
> 
> Residents who were infected with COVID in 2020 experienced a reinfection between May and June of 2021. That's the same time the Delta variant intensified across the country.
> ...


Thanks.

Doesn’t say much about immunity.   It may just be that, if you were prone to catch respiratory diseases in December, you were still prone to catch respiratory diseases in July.   

Or it may slice the other way.   People who had covid probably don’t suddenly decide to take larger risks.  But people who get vaccines definitely do.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> People who've had COVID, twice as likely to get reinfected than those who get vaccinated, CDC says
> 
> 
> Residents who were infected with COVID in 2020 experienced a reinfection between May and June of 2021. That's the same time the Delta variant intensified across the country.
> ...


Not much to that article or information regarding their study. Just "I think that is very likely because we know the Delta variant is so much more infectious," said Dr. Srivastava. 

So know real data showing one (vax) versus the other (previous infection).  Again, I’m open minded and genuinely curious (until the name calling starts).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Late last year Internal government study concluded that with their approach to the pandemic they needed to implement better isolation of nursing homes patients to prevent their big first wave.


Link to government study?  Before espola ask.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Late last year Internal government study concluded that with their approach to the pandemic they needed to implement better isolation of nursing homes patients to prevent their big first wave.


Wonder if the study takes in to account that theres not much you can do about being (70) elderly at some point.  Just ask the insurance companies.  Ever wonder why you can get term insurance for cheap but usually for not longer than 30 years?  And if you want to extend it another 30 years 'till you're 70 plus, won't be able to afford that policy.  It's been like that for a very long time despite deadly viruses.  No need to go all scientific on us.  The actuaries cut right through all of the bullshit to get to death$.  Show me an increase in Premiums for term life and just maybe you can convince me that "better" one size fits all policies could have helped Sweden do better.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

FREAKIN' HILARIOUS

Here is a survey, just completed (so this isn't from April 2020, bear in mind), of "infectious disease experts."

Red is a NO answer.




_Surveys such as this one reveal that the epidemiology profession is a hotbed of statistical illiterates, paranoiacs, and outright crazy people._
_
Similar surveys in the past have revealed a high prevalence of other bizarre behavioral patterns by epidemiologists, such as refusing to touch their mail for three days out of fear that it contains Covid. [TW note: The New York Times reported on this last summer; one-third of epidemiologists surveyed were refusing to get their mail. As of two months ago, 17% of them were still afraid of their mail.]

These results are not coming from the fringes of the profession either, but rather its "leading" voices. For example, the survey depicted in the image included Michael Osterholm -- a former member of Biden's covid task force and a prominent lockdowner spokesman on TV for the last year.

*If innumeracy, absurd distortions of risk assessment, and quack beliefs about taking radical steps to avoid safe and common public activities are indeed widespread among epidemiologists, perhaps we should stop treating these people as experts and instead look upon their advice as one would view medical advice from an astrologer or homeopath.*_

(Please, homeopath friends, do not send me angry emails. I am simply including the entire quotation.)

It is this insane, lunatic standard that is used to "fact check" the normal people.

People who are _afraid of their mail_ want to "fact check" you.

Hence the need for uncensored discussion among intelligent people without being "fact checked" by hypochondriacs.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 18, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> People who've had COVID, twice as likely to get reinfected than those who get vaccinated, CDC says
> 
> 
> Residents who were infected with COVID in 2020 experienced a reinfection between May and June of 2021. That's the same time the Delta variant intensified across the country.
> ...


Twice as likely?  Sounds about right for a new virus.  Lol!  Sounds like the flu every year.  Mask up and go see a movie.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Not much to that article or information regarding their study. Just "I think that is very likely because we know the Delta variant is so much more infectious," said Dr. Srivastava.
> 
> So know real data showing one (vax) versus the other (previous infection).  Again, I’m open minded and genuinely curious (until the name calling starts).











						Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19...
					

This report describes COVID-19 reinfection among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons in Kentucky.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19...
> 
> 
> This report describes COVID-19 reinfection among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons in Kentucky.
> ...


Thx.  Interesting.  Quite a small test but 2.34x more likey is what it is in this case.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Thx.  Interesting.  Quite a small test but 2.34x more likey is what it is in this case.


That was the link to the study from the first reply I posted. I assumed clicking the link to the actual study was a given?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> That was the link to the study from the first reply I posted. I assumed clicking the link to the actual study was a given?


A given is that the next virus is always is always more infectious than the last. You people crack me up.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> That was the link to the study from the first reply I posted. I assumed clicking the link to the actual study was a given?


I did not expect the reporter to get it that wrong.

Reporter’s version: “the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a study reporting that individuals who've had COVID are twice as likely to get reinfected.”. 

Actual study: Among those previously infected, those who get vaccinated are less likely to get reinfected.   “Among Kentucky residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, vaccination status of those reinfected during May–June 2021 was compared with that of residents who were not reinfected. In this case-control study, being unvaccinated was associated with 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated.”


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> That was the link to the study from the first reply I posted. I assumed clicking the link to the actual study was a given?


So what you’re saying is the only thing you’ve been able to find is one very small case study in Kentucky?


----------



## dad4 (Aug 19, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> A given is that the next virus is always is always more infectious than the last. You people crack me up.


read the study.  that’s not what it’s about.

The study is evaluating whether there is any point in vaccinating someone who has some natural immunity.   result was a clear yes.


----------



## watfly (Aug 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I did not expect the reporter to get it that wrong.
> 
> Reporter’s version: “the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a study reporting that individuals who've had COVID are twice as likely to get reinfected.”.
> 
> Actual study: Among those previously infected, those who get vaccinated are less likely to get reinfected.   “Among Kentucky residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, vaccination status of those reinfected during May–June 2021 was compared with that of residents who were not reinfected. In this case-control study, being unvaccinated was associated with 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated.”


You beat me to it. I have seen and heard this study misreported by reporters and so-called medical experts. If your hear anyone make a claim about the "Kentucky Study" this is the one they are misqouting.

It seems to me based on the data available today in regards to immunity from infection:
Vaccination=Good
Natural immunity=Better
Natural immunity + vaccination=Best


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 19, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Link to government study?  Before espola ask.


I knew about it from contemporary standard click journalism about Dec last year (Reuters, BBC I think).  For the actual report I can't find anything other than the pdf in Swedish (http://www.sou.gov.se/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SOU_2020_80_Äldreomsorgen-under-pandemin_webb.pdf) which prob not much help.  Here is a no paywall retrospective that touches on what I understand to be the main issues that were identified, related to protection for elderly in nursing homes, which bore the brunt of Sweden's first COVID wave (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0020731421994848).


----------



## what-happened (Aug 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> “Appears”? According to who?


Because the vaccine "appears" to (insert any type of contradictory data here).


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I did not expect the reporter to get it that wrong.


It's an unfortunate aspect of contemporary media that feeds into the mis/disinformation.  There is good science reporting, but more and more it is not the stuff that's just going to show up in the feed of your standard media outlet.


----------



## crush (Aug 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I did not expect the reporter to get it that wrong.
> 
> Reporter’s version: “the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a study reporting that individuals who've had COVID are twice as likely to get reinfected.”.
> 
> Actual study: Among those previously infected, those who get vaccinated are less likely to get reinfected.   “Among Kentucky residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, vaccination status of those reinfected during May–June 2021 was compared with that of residents who were not reinfected. In this case-control study, being unvaccinated was associated with 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated.”


Look dad, based on my 10 friends who got jabbed, all of them have been sick at least once.  One of them got blood clot and went to the Dr, not ER.  He's on blood thinner btw.  The other 9 are just pissed because they got sick again and some twice.  That's the rub for most and oh by the way, they have to wear a mask indoors now.  Dont you dare try and pin this on the unvaccinated.  You have crossed a line.  The fact is according to Dr. F, not only can you catch IT again, you also can contaminate others like me.  Maybe you should just sit this out.  All you do is lie!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 19, 2021)

watfly said:


> You beat me to it. I have seen and heard this study misreported by reporters and so-called medical experts. If your hear anyone make a claim about the "Kentucky Study" this is the one they are misqouting.
> 
> It seems to me based on the data available today in regards to immunity from infection:
> Vaccination=Good
> ...


Oh Lord, the old Good, Better and Best.  

Healthy life style= Excellent
Natural Immunity= Smart
Natural Immunity + No meat or Booz= Most Excellent Brah


----------



## dad4 (Aug 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So what you’re saying is the only thing you’ve been able to find is one very small case study in Kentucky?


Look at the confidence interval.   The study was large enough.

You can get by with a smaller sample if the correlation is strong enough.  In this case, it was.


----------



## watfly (Aug 19, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> It's an unfortunate aspect of contemporary media that feeds into the mis/disinformation.  There is good science reporting, but more and more it is not the stuff that's just going to show up in the feed of your standard media outlet.


Unfortunately most mainstream reporters know very little about the topic they're reporting.  They've been trained in journalism (which is debatable) and not the science, medical, financial, legal fields that they're reporting.

In a previous life I was involved in the investigation of financial frauds, some of which were high profile.  Never did I see a report or article in regards to a case that didn't have major factual flaws.


----------



## crush (Aug 19, 2021)

I'm putting together my last stand.  Let me know what you guys think of my first paragraph 

Too whom it may concern or Dear ___________________ ((fill in the blank for your situation and the assholes your dealing with)),

     What is being proposed to me as an American citizen here in California as to mandating the jabs is exactly what our Military Court tried and convicted and hung German Doctors, soldiers, nurses and administrators for in 1945.  These mandates, threats of losing job, not being able to buy or sell and orders as they sit today are ILLIGAL.  These are exceptionally narrow circumstance and rigorous steps must be undertaken before the President or anyone who thinks they alone can waive anyone's Informed Consent rights.  Otherwise, this behavior is characterized as a WAR CRIME, which was first recognized as an International crime because of Nuremberg trials: which became the Nuremberg Code ((law)) and was fully adopted by the USA and DoD in 1957.  Informed Consent is a basic Human Right Jackos and is guaranteed by the Constitution and the International Convention signed by most of the countries on this planet, per the attached ((article 7)).


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 19, 2021)

dad4 said:


> read the study.  that’s not what it’s about.
> 
> The study is evaluating whether there is any point in vaccinating someone who has some natural immunity.   result was a clear yes.


In addition to the booster shot, mask, and lockdowns.  Like I said you people crack me up.


----------



## crush (Aug 19, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> In addition to the booster shot, mask, and lockdowns.  Like I said you people crack me up.


Shots Bruddah, not shot.  I hear this is a never ending war on humanity type of war.  The last rumor I heard was that their are a few Red Haired Giants in the Kandahar Mountains.  My old sales rep Ahmad told me about this Giant of a Legend and he say's it's true 100%.  I laughed back then but not now.  These giants are like 15-20 feet tall and are protecting all the precious stones, gold and precious metals in Kandahar.  The Giants dont give a shit about the heroine.  Their hooked on the Gold and have been for some time and were hooked on opium.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 19, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> I knew about it from contemporary standard click journalism about Dec last year (Reuters, BBC I think).  For the actual report I can't find anything other than the pdf in Swedish (http://www.sou.gov.se/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SOU_2020_80_Äldreomsorgen-under-pandemin_webb.pdf) which prob not much help.  Here is a no paywall retrospective that touches on what I understand to be the main issues that were identified, related to protection for elderly in nursing homes, which bore the brunt of Sweden's first COVID wave (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0020731421994848).


Pretty thin.  And of course they had to spend quite a bit of time on the many fallacies that prop up the argument for inequality.  I've read better on their nursing/homecare challenges.


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 19, 2021)

Bruddah IZ said:


> Pretty thin.  And of course they had to spend quite a bit of time on the many fallacies that prop up the argument for inequality.  I've read better on their nursing/homecare challenges.


You can have your opinion.  I can have my opinion.  Whatever. Bottom line.  Sweden had a big up front mortality hit, particularly relative to other Scandanavian countries.  The government thought the comps were bad and it wasn't such a good look.  If there's a segment of the twitterati out there that wants to jump up and down about Sweden being such a great success story....yada, yada, yada, freedom, that's got to be put on the scales as well.  And like I said there's is a valid argument for paying the penalty up front.  But that doesn't mean there's not a penalty.  And just because it happened more than two weeks ago doesn't mean it's not true.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 19, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> So what you’re saying is the only thing you’ve been able to find is one very small case study in Kentucky?


This ain’t a job nor a hobby. So are we saying 2.34 times more chance doesn’t mean 2.34 times more as more than double? What am I missing there?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 19, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> You can have your opinion.  I can have my opinion.  Whatever. Bottom line.  Sweden had a big up front mortality hit, particularly relative to other Scandinavian countries.  The government thought the comps were bad and it wasn't such a good look.  If there's a segment of the twitterati out there that wants to jump up and down about Sweden being such a great success story....yada, yada, yada, freedom, that's got to be put on the scales as well.  And like I said there's is a valid argument for paying the penalty up front.  But that doesn't mean there's not a penalty.  And just because it happened more than two weeks ago doesn't mean it's not true.


Morbid facts are hardly a jump up and down event.  But YOUR counterfactual thinking is based on what previous event that mandated lockdowns and other denial of due process rights?


----------



## N00B (Aug 19, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> This ain’t a job nor a hobby. So are we saying 2.34 times more chance doesn’t mean 2.34 times more as more than double? What am I missing there?


Not specific to you… but what is missing is any discussion of time intervals between original/most recent antibody response and date of re-infection.

There is a reason booster shots are advised… vaccination of a prior natural immune response would act very similar to a booster shot in a fully vaccinated individual.

Vaccine + Booster = better than vaccination alone in the next time interval

Natural infection + Vaccine = better than either alone in the next time interval

Natural infection + reinfected = better than just one infection in the next time interval

Now, can both sides stop ignoring the other when it comes to policy?


----------



## crush (Aug 19, 2021)

N00B said:


> Not specific to you… but what is missing is any discussion of time intervals between original/most recent antibody response and date of re-infection.
> 
> There is a reason booster shots are advised… vaccination of a prior natural immune response would act very similar to a booster shot in a fully vaccinated individual.
> 
> ...


----------



## crush (Aug 19, 2021)

*REPORT: Biden “Not Sleeping Well,” Says He Wants to Go Home to Delaware to Sleep*


----------



## espola (Aug 19, 2021)

Hong Kong Flu, 1969 --


----------



## N00B (Aug 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Hong Kong Flu, 1969 --
> 
> View attachment 11460


Nice picture. More interesting story;





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com


----------



## espola (Aug 19, 2021)

N00B said:


> Nice picture. More interesting story;
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Paywall.


----------



## N00B (Aug 19, 2021)

espola said:


> Paywall.


Quick fix for the interwebs… copy and paste link to ‘private’ or ‘incognito’.

“50% of the time it works all the time”


----------



## crush (Aug 20, 2021)

espola said:


> Hong Kong Flu, 1969 --
> 
> View attachment 11460


No this is not.  This is because asshole men walked around farting in the office.  Nice try dude......


----------



## crush (Aug 20, 2021)

Mask for the kids but not for the adults who like to party in tents with no mask and hand out weed......lol.  This is so about politics & control.  How sad students still must wear masks as OC Board of Education loses court bid vs. Newsom.  My dd will wear her mask like a good student.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 20, 2021)

Now are seeing another security theater idea (plastic barriers) don't help.









						It Turns Out Those Plastic Barriers Put Up To Stop COVID-19 May Actually Make It Easier To Spread
					

Plastic barriers that shot up at counters and order windows across America during the COVID-19 pandemic may actually be facilitating the spread of the virus.




					dailycaller.com


----------



## crush (Aug 20, 2021)

Fear Bait is going strong on FOX and Friend CNN.  This is insane.  

*Latest COVID wave surging as hospitals struggle to find beds for all patients*

Getting ready to help patient with Covid.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 20, 2021)

Our local public high school had to scratch its first game because one kid tested positive for covid. The unvaxxed kids must now quarantine 10 days (no zoom classes available).  The vaxxed kids can go back once they had a neg covid test and if no symptoms.  All the kids were masked at the time of exposure. This is how the fall semester is likely going to go.


----------



## crush (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Our local public high school had to scratch its first game because one kid tested positive for covid. The unvaxxed kids must now quarantine 10 days (no zoom classes available).  The vaxxed kids can go back once they had a neg covid test and if no symptoms.  All the kids were masked at the time of exposure. This is how the fall semester is likely going to go.


They can;t force a kid to get tested.  It's "highly encouraged" to get tested.  The wording in everything is so loose it will never hold up.  This will go down as the biggest scam ever.  The assholes use kids as pawns.  Think how desperate one has to be to use kids as a shield?  That is called loser and evil all in one.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

We’re still in the summer and Palo Alto has mandated masks for kids outside. Once again, told you this was never going to end at masks indoors.


----------



## crush (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We’re still in the summer and Palo Alto has mandated masks for kids outside. Once again, told you this was never going to end at masks indoors.


It's the Elitist last stand Grace.  Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide and the train is stopped because no gasoline.  This is going to get more intense.  I will be blamed for all of this as well.  It's my fault because I refused to roll up me sleeve and take one for team California.  The commercials against the recall is insane about folks who think like me.  I'm being labelled some serious things and I wont forget when this is over.  I won;t be voting this time around either, like always.  I put in trash because this is all sick and full of filth.  They declared war on small business owners, religious whackos, churches, kids and just freedom fighters. So many people deep down know it's wrong to treat folks like second class, but they have so much at stake ((job, status, home, the good life)) that they keep their head in the sand and hope it all goes away.  It's not until we say no more.  No way anyone with a heart and a brain see's this as fair.  Trust me, they ((darkness, evil, cheaters and liars with no heart)) dont give a shit about any of us.


----------



## crush (Aug 21, 2021)




----------



## kickingandscreaming (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> We’re still in the summer and Palo Alto has mandated masks for kids outside. Once again, told you this was never going to end at masks indoors.


Not the least bit shocked. Where's the science of the 6 feet outside again? Actually, I am surprised they even allow the kids in school in Palo Alto.









						Masks required outdoors at Palo Alto's K-8 public schools
					

Palo Alto Unified's elementary and middle schoolers are going to once again have to wear face coverings at recess and lunch starting Monday under a new outdoor mask mandate.




					www.paloaltoonline.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

Australia beginning to get ugly.  No sign of slow down of the delta as of yesterday either.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429087409023733760


----------



## crush (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Australia beginning to get ugly.  No sign of slow down of the delta as of yesterday either.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429087409023733760











						Prayers Up for Patriots World Wide - Melbourne, Australia August 21, 2021
					

UPDATE August 23, 2021: In Australia, truckers are beginning to strike, coast to coast: https://twitter.com/gillianmckeith/status/1429456942569857026  Let Freedom Ring, Australian Member of Parliament George Christensen Takes a Stand https://theco…




					www.bitchute.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Australia beginning to get ugly.  No sign of slow down of the delta as of yesterday either.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429087409023733760


What worse yesterday australia set an all time case record and no end in sight for the lockdown.   They can’t take much more of this. 2 more weeks of no bend in the curve and the wheels come off in the urban areas.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

Los Angeles has topped 4000 cases for the first time since January. Mask mandate working!!!


----------



## dad4 (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Los Angeles has topped 4000 cases for the first time since January. Mask mandate working!!!


Try a vaccine passport along with your mask mandate, like they do in SF.  

The combo works better than either one alone.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Try a vaccine passport along with your mask mandate, like they do in SF.
> 
> The combo works better than either one alone.


See what I'm posting in the vaccine forum.  You aren't going to like it.  It will scare you.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> See what I'm posting in the vaccine forum.  You aren't going to like it.  It will scare you.


Let me guess, some place with good NPI and low case rates in the past is now experiencing an outbreak.

And Hound can comment that some place with huge past case rates now looks good.

Then we all can feel really clever.

It happens all over.  You can see it in the standard 2 variable differential equation for this:

P' = k (1-P-S)(P-S) 
S' = c( P-S)

As S goes up, P' goes down.  ( When recovered population rises, current infections fall.  )


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Let me guess, some place with good NPI and low case rates in the past is now experiencing an outbreak.
> 
> And Hound can comment that some place with huge past case rates now looks good.
> 
> ...


Nope.  This is like really radical outside the box stuff challenging the argument I posted that Gottlieb made and not by an anti-mask freak (and which has the ear of the UK govt).  I don't know if it's right, but if it is, Bruddah has made a chump of you and your world and belief will crumble around you....it means everything you thought is wrong.  Again, I'm not taking a position here...Gottlieb might be right, but it's shocking even to me.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nope.  This is like really radical outside the box stuff challenging the argument I posted that Gottlieb made and not by an anti-mask freak (and which has the ear of the UK govt).  I don't know if it's right, but if it is, Bruddah has made a chump of you and your world and belief will crumble around you....it means everything you thought is wrong.  Again, I'm not taking a position here...Gottlieb might be right, but it's shocking even to me.


I don't watch the videos people post, including yours.

Like most people, I read much faster than most announcers speak.  Watching someone slowly get to their point is excruciating.  Then, they repeat themselves, including the same pseudo-dramatic buildup.

If your point isn't important enough to write down, then it isn't important.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't watch the videos people post, including yours.
> 
> Like most people, I read much faster than most announcers speak.  Watching someone slowly get to their point is excruciating.  Then, they repeat themselves, including the same pseudo-dramatic buildup.
> 
> If your point isn't important enough to write down, then it isn't important.


Ha ha.  I knew you'd be scared about it.  He does cards so you can flip through the relevant points and read it if you don't want to listen.  I won't summarize it (though I did topline it in the vaccine post) because I don't want to mischaracterize it and he has the original (reputable) sources in there if you care to hunt them down and the data is very extensive that I could never do it justice in one post since it encompasses multiple studies.  Guess your faith isn't strong enough to test it, or you are frightened about what you may find.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Ha ha.  I knew you'd be scared about it.  He does cards so you can flip through the relevant points and read it if you don't want to listen.  I won't summarize it (though I did topline it in the vaccine post) because I don't want to mischaracterize it and he has the original (reputable) sources in there if you care to hunt them down and the data is very extensive that I could never do it justice in one post since it encompasses multiple studies.  Guess your faith isn't strong enough to test it, or you are frightened about what you may find.


p.s. maybe Bruddah will transcript it for you.....because if true it means he's been more right than you.....again not saying it is or isn't right....but if true Bruddah has absolutely rocked your world (though uncomfortably for him, it would require a vaccine mandate for anyone over some age in their 20s who couldn't prove they had COVID before)


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I don't watch the videos people post, including yours.
> 
> Like most people, I read much faster than most announcers speak.  Watching someone slowly get to their point is excruciating.  Then, they repeat themselves, including the same pseudo-dramatic buildup.
> 
> If your point isn't important enough to write down, then it isn't important.


Don't worry about it.  She is following her usual behavior with the Campbell videos.. He usually presents a balanced analysis, showing pros and cons of several points.  Grace grabs the points she likes and ignores the opposites.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Don't worry about it.  She is following her usual behavior with the Campbell videos.. He usually presents a balanced analysis, showing pros and cons of several points.  Grace grabs the points she likes and ignores the opposites.


Again, with the mischaracterizations.  I'm not taking a position and am open to the Gottlieb position as well.  I've said either could be right....I need more info.  Campbell sort of has taken a position....he also takes a balanced approach, but leans optimistically into this.  The fact that HE is covering it means it's not some out there whackado theory because Campbell is very measured.  But if the position Campbell summarizes (very well I might add, far better than I could do justice), then everything dad 4 believes in will just be spectacularly, completely, totally wrong.

It's kind of like living a good life, dying and landing in hell, wondering why you got there, and then being told "the correct answer was Mormon...Mormon was the correct answer"


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again, with the mischaracterizations.  I'm not taking a position and am open to the Gottlieb position as well.  I've said either could be right....I need more info.  Campbell sort of has taken a position....he also takes a balanced approach, but leans optimistically into this.  The fact that HE is covering it means it's not some out there whackado theory because Campbell is very measured.  But if the position Campbell summarizes (very well I might add, far better than I could do justice), then everything dad 4 believes in will just be spectacularly, completely, totally wrong.
> 
> It's kind of like living a good life, dying and landing in hell, wondering why you got there, and then being told "the correct answer was Mormon...Mormon was the correct answer"


Are you sticking with your position that we should deliberately infect people with the disease?


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Try a vaccine passport along with your mask mandate, like they do in SF.
> 
> The combo works better than either one alone.


How?  Didn’t they just say that vaccinated people can spread the virus like “chickenpox”?!?!?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Are you sticking with your position that we should deliberately infect people with the disease?


Again, mischaracterizing my position.  We've crossed from fool to liar now.  If we were in the 1800s I'd be taking out my glove to slap you right about now.  As I've said before, I don't know who is right: Gottlieb or the info Campbell lays out....I need more info.   I am sure, however, that you are a liar, a fool and a troll, all of which is self evident.


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> How?  Didn’t they just say that vaccinated people can spread the virus like “chickenpox”?!?!?











						The Delta Variant Isn't As Contagious As Chickenpox. But It's Still Highly Contagious
					

A leaked CDC document compared it to the highly contagious children's disease. Data does not support this claim. Nonetheless, the variant is one of the world's most contagious respiratory diseases.




					www.npr.org


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Again, mischaracterizing my position.  We've crossed from fool to liar now.  If we were in the 1800s I'd be taking out my glove to slap you right about now.  As I've said before, I don't know who is right: Gottlieb or the info Campbell lays out....I need more info.   I am sure, however, that you are a liar, a fool and a troll, all of which is self evident.


I quoted you directly.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> I quoted you directly.


No, you didn't.  1. I'm very clear I'm not advocating either position....I need more info, but 2) if the position Campbell outlines is correct, while we don't want to "deliberately" infect people, we do want vaccinated people to be exposed to the disease and we wouldn't want to be doing any NPIs except as necessary to prevent complete hospital collapse.

So yes, you are a liar now.


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No, you didn't.  1. I'm very clear I'm not advocating either position....I need more info, but 2) if the position Campbell outlines is correct, while we don't want to "deliberately" infect people, we do want vaccinated people to be exposed to the disease and we wouldn't want to be doing any NPIs except as necessary to prevent complete hospital collapse.
> 
> So yes, you are a liar now.


People can read the threads and decide for themselves who is lying.


----------



## crush (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No, you didn't.  1. I'm very clear I'm not advocating either position....I need more info, but 2) if the position Campbell outlines is correct, while we don't want to "deliberately" infect people, we do want vaccinated people to be exposed to the disease and we wouldn't want to be doing any NPIs except as necessary to prevent complete hospital collapse.
> 
> So yes, you are a liar now.


Here Grace, you this meme for the liar.


----------



## crush (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> People can read the threads and decide for themselves who is lying.


URA100%LIARESPOLA


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> People can read the threads and decide for themselves who is lying.


Yup.  But as far as I'm concerned, you are now forever branded a liar in my book and I will forever more remind you of it, liar.


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yup.  But as far as I'm concerned, you are now forever branded a liar in my book and I will forever more remind you of it, liar.


I think regular readers here are familiar with your habit of running away from embarrassing positions with a flurry of false ad hominems.

You say you are not advocating either position, but your thread that refers to Campbell's latest video looks like a claim of victory over dad4.  

"cue dad4 freakout in 5 4 3 2 1"

So which is it?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> I think regular readers here are familiar with your habit of running away from embarrassing positions with a flurry of false ad hominems.
> 
> You say you are not advocating either position, but your thread that refers to Campbell's latest video looks like a claim of victory over dad4.
> 
> ...


First, you are a liar.  From henceforce I will remind you of that constantly.  Liar.

Second, I said this was qualified only IF it was true.  I personally haven't decided whether Gottlieb is right or the position outlined by Campbell/the UK govt.  I said as much originally and since repeatedly.  I honestly don't know.

Third, it is pretty self-evident that dad4 is not only afraid of others catching the virus, but that he himself is afraid of getting COVID.  The idea, if true, that policy could be that people go out and be exposed to the virus, without masks or NPIS, once vaccinated, would be terrifying to him

Fourth, he illustrated this by his reaction to the video above.  He's running from it to keep his faith in tact.

Fifth, have I told you that you are a liar?  Because ya are.


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> First, you are a liar.  From henceforce I will remind you of that constantly.  Liar.
> 
> Second, I said this was qualified only IF it was true.  I personally haven't decided whether Gottlieb is right or the position outlined by Campbell/the UK govt.  I said as much originally and since repeatedly.  I honestly don't know.
> 
> ...


Have you given up the Magoo act?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Have you given up the Magoo act?


I'm not sure whether to be impressed or disappointed in you.  I had always assumed you just a nasty fool, but tonight you've crossed over into deliberately mischaracterizing positions, even when it's been pointed out to you.  That makes you not a fool, but a liar.  So be it....liar.


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I'm not sure whether to be impressed or disappointed in you.  I had always assumed you just a nasty fool, but tonight you've crossed over into deliberately mischaracterizing positions, even when it's been pointed out to you.  That makes you not a fool, but a liar.  So be it....liar.


Would you call this mischaracterizing a position>?

"Third, it is pretty self-evident that dad4 is not only afraid of others catching the virus, but that he himself is afraid of getting COVID. The idea, if true, that policy could be that people go out and be exposed to the virus, without masks or NPIS, once vaccinated, would be terrifying to him

Fourth, he illustrated this by his reaction to the video above. He's running from it to keep his faith in tact."


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Would you call this mischaracterizing a position>?
> 
> "Third, it is pretty self-evident that dad4 is not only afraid of others catching the virus, but that he himself is afraid of getting COVID. The idea, if true, that policy could be that people go out and be exposed to the virus, without masks or NPIS, once vaccinated, would be terrifying to him
> 
> Fourth, he illustrated this by his reaction to the video above. He's running from it to keep his faith in tact."


Yes, because you ignore 2.  Which proves 1 and 5 are true.  Liar.


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Yes, because you ignore 2.  Which proves 1 and 5 are true.  Liar.


I quoted three and four.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> I quoted three and four.


And ignored 2 which makes you a liar, making 1 and  5 correct and making you now a twice liar, liar.


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> And ignored 2 which makes you a liar, making 1 and  5 correct and making you now a twice liar, liar.


In case you missed it, we were discussing whether your points 3 and 4 constitute a mischaracterization of Dad4's positions.  Are you sticking with those opinions?


----------



## dad4 (Aug 21, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> How?  Didn’t they just say that vaccinated people can spread the virus like “chickenpox”?!?!?


I think they said that the virus spreads like chickenpox among nonvaccinated.

I haven’t seen anything about whether Delta can spread in a vaccinated community.   Martha’s Vineyard is giving us a nice natural experiment this month.

It has now been two weeks since the private jets flew in on August 07 to seed the island with Delta.   They had a one day peak of 28 cases just after the party, but it’s been inching down since then.  17 cases a couple days ago. 

 So, slow decline, on a very wealthy island with a 95% vaccination rate.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> In case you missed it, we were discussing whether your points 3 and 4 constitute a mischaracterization of Dad4's positions.  Are you sticking with those opinions?


4 points to his reaction to the video.  We've all seen it.  It's in evidence.

3 is an opinion which I welcome him to correct, and would take the correction at face value, because unlike you, he's shown himself to be honorable and at least so far not a liar....which your neglect of 2 makes you.


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> 4 points to his reaction to the video.  We've all seen it.  It's in evidence.
> 
> 3 is an opinion which I welcome him to correct, and would take the correction at face value, because unlike you, he's shown himself to be honorable and at least so far not a liar....which your neglect of 2 makes you.


Your opinion is not evidence,

You were actually doing better with the Magoo stuff, when you didn't have to worry about trying to be honest and logical.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Your opinion is not evidence,
> 
> You were actually doing better with the Magoo stuff, when you didn't have to worry about trying to be honest and logical.


Hah....look at the liar talk about honesty!!!


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 21, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Let me guess, some place with good NPI and low case rates in the past is now experiencing an outbreak.
> 
> And Hound can comment that some place with huge past case rates now looks good.
> 
> ...


Diff EQ on the soccer forum!  Am I tired of this or not?  I don't know.  Not as fun as it was back in the Climate and Weather days, though.  But always interesting. By the way, not only are you supposed to be scared, but if I followed it correctly your world has now been completely rocked and you're supposed to be doing a Balfour burn it to the ground kind of freak-out.  So I was doing some other stuff on the side just sort of waiting for the drama.  It was initially 5-4-3-2-1, and you were supposed to be on.  But I think now we are down to 1/512 and dropping in an asymptotic way.  You know, "You better be buckled before I get to....fractions".  Once it drops below Iz's death/case ratios, however, that's it.  Calling it a day.


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Hah....look at the liar talk about honesty!!!


Your opinion is not evidence.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 21, 2021)

espola said:


> Your opinion is not evidence.


But your dishonesty will always make you a liar


----------



## espola (Aug 21, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> But your dishonesty will always make you a liar


"Third, it is pretty self-evident that dad4 is not only afraid of others catching the virus, but that he himself is afraid of getting COVID. The idea, if true, that policy could be that people go out and be exposed to the virus, without masks or NPIS, once vaccinated, would be terrifying to him

Fourth, he illustrated this by his reaction to the video above. He's running from it to keep his faith in tact."

Your opinion is not evidence.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nope.  This is like really radical outside the box stuff challenging the argument I posted that Gottlieb made and not by an anti-mask freak (and which has the ear of the UK govt).  I don't know if it's right, but if it is, Bruddah has made a chump of you and your world and belief will crumble around you....it means everything you thought is wrong.  Again, I'm not taking a position here...Gottlieb might be right, but it's shocking even to me.


When dizzy makes any sense it will be a first. Anytime the diz goes away from his cut and paste opinion and uses his own words he crashes hard. Your faith in him must surely be based solely on his political stance . . . you of the no politics.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

espola said:


> "Third, it is pretty self-evident that dad4 is not only afraid of others catching the virus, but that he himself is afraid of getting COVID. The idea, if true, that policy could be that people go out and be exposed to the virus, without masks or NPIS, once vaccinated, would be terrifying to him
> 
> Fourth, he illustrated this by his reaction to the video above. He's running from it to keep his faith in tact."
> 
> Your opinion is not evidence.


Still a liar


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> When dizzy makes any sense it will be a first. Anytime the diz goes away from his cut and paste opinion and uses his own words he crashes hard. Your faith in him must surely be based solely on his political stance . . . you of the no politics.


Nah.  He’d still not be 100% right.  It would require mandating at least the first shot.  But if the Campbell theory is true he’d be more right about things than dad4…that’s shocking even to me.


----------



## crush (Aug 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Nah.  He’d still not be 100% right.  It would require mandating at least the first shot.  But if the Campbell theory is true he’d be more right about things than dad4…that’s shocking even to me.


Can you see this as a bio weapon at all Grace?  Is it possible that the end game is to get everyone jabbed with poison?  This is what I firmly believe and it's easy to see from my perch.  I know these selfish bastards all too well and they are losing their power unlike at any other time in history.  That's why all the lying, cheating is coming out for all to see.  The light is ON and never going away,  The light won


----------



## crush (Aug 22, 2021)

Mask are sold out for back to school at all the Big Box stores.  What a bunch of sore losers.  Seriously, you cheat, lie and steal and still make children wear a mask.  Custom Millstones for all of you who use kids as pawns and other evil crap.   I warned you all.  It's not too late to repent and go with the light, truth. honesty and fairness for all.  Stop hurting the children you MOFOs!!!


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

crush said:


> Can you see this as a bio weapon at all Grace?  Is it possible that the end game is to get everyone jabbed with poison?  This is what I firmly believe and it's easy to see from my perch.  I know these selfish bastards all too well and they are losing their power unlike at any other time in history.  That's why all the lying, cheating is coming out for all to see.  The light is ON and never going away,  The light won


No I don’t think it’s a bio weapon. It’s not efficient enough to be a bio weapon. But I do think it probably is a massive Chinese mistake coupled with some really shitty behavior on their part

as to the vaccine, either way now it seems to be a series of mistakes by the experts.  If Gottliebm is right: the rushed testing and the rapid two shot protocol was a mistake for most of the population…if Campbell is right post vaccine npis would be a mistake. These mistakes would occurred because of incentives: a rush to end this in part for political reasons, sloppiness, and money. But then our expert classes can’t even withdraw from Afghanistan without a debacle happening so why are we surprised.


----------



## crush (Aug 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> No I don’t think it’s a bio weapon. .


The vax silly, not the virus.   My pal from Stanford says the virus is the Flu A and B.  When you add a mask + fear + jabs, you got problems.  The mouth is dirty and keeping the dirt in the mask is unhealthy.  Kids are now used to it as our find teachers have told us.  It's their new normal with no end in site because this is the end.  Two choices two choose Grace and the others.  Truth or Lie. No dares anymore either.  You must pick the Truth or Lie. Light or Darkness.  Christ or Lucifer.  The truth is the best treatment in a healthy immune system, good diet and exercise.  If you do all that and cut out meat and booz you will be safe.  Take that to the bank baby!!!  If one does feel ill, therapeutics are the way to go and not the ER unless you can;t breath and you already took the jabs and have been wearing a mask 24/7.  In that case, go.  Doc pal says their is no Covid 19.  Covid btw spelled backwards is Divoc.  It's Latin word.  Dominion means?  Mask?  6 feet?  Two jabs or no buy or sell?  Patent #060606..........The logo? Harvesting baby parts for profit? How far down the rabbit hole have you gone down Grace?  My pal Alice is wondering.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 22, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Diff EQ on the soccer forum!  Am I tired of this or not?  I don't know.  Not as fun as it was back in the Climate and Weather days, though.  But always interesting. By the way, not only are you supposed to be scared, but if I followed it correctly your world has now been completely rocked and you're supposed to be doing a Balfour burn it to the ground kind of freak-out.  So I was doing some other stuff on the side just sort of waiting for the drama.  It was initially 5-4-3-2-1, and you were supposed to be on.  But I think now we are down to 1/512 and dropping in an asymptotic way.  You know, "You better be buckled before I get to....fractions".  Once it drops below Iz's death/case ratios, however, that's it.  Calling it a day.


Good call.


----------



## crush (Aug 22, 2021)




----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> But your dishonesty will always make you a liar


After reading through the thread you seem to be projecting it yet another attempt to squirm away from your statements.


----------



## crush (Aug 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> After reading through the thread you seem to be projecting it yet another attempt to squirm away from your statements.


Good morning Husker.  Be honest with the group.  How have the dreams been?  Be honest.......My dreams are amazing although I did have one the other day where two guys were chasing me at a park and I was asking others for help and no one would help me.


----------



## crush (Aug 22, 2021)

I think we should go for it today and debate the issues of today.  I think most of us have been going back & forth now for over three years.  I think were going to see a blackout and a new kind of internet so let's get some last swings in.  I'll start.  
t was on fire last night I hear.  I ws on a date with my wife and missed it.  He did start his speech right at 5:55pm, wink wink.  Dude said woke=loser.....lol!!! 
We have lot's of liars and losers right about now in our country.  Who will have the last laugh?  Some of you judged the book and the cover and failed to read the book.


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think they said that the virus spreads like chickenpox among nonvaccinated.
> 
> I haven’t seen anything about whether Delta can spread in a vaccinated community.   Martha’s Vineyard is giving us a nice natural experiment this month.
> 
> ...


"The bottom line was that, in contrast to the other variants, vaccinated people, even if they didn't get sick, got infected and shed virus at similar levels as unvaccinated people who got infected," Dr. Walter Orenstein, who heads the Emory Vaccine Center and who viewed the documents, told CNN.


----------



## crush (Aug 22, 2021)

Laughing and dancing as we all suffer.  Can;t you see the truth?


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 22, 2021)

Hypothesis: the majority of people currently taking offense at analogies between lockdowns and the Taliban (or North Korea or other similar authoritarian regimes) are doing so primarily because these comparisons hit a little too close to home for their own comfort.

Yes, the comparisons involve a degree of hyperbole and intentionally so. But there’s more than enough of an authoritarian flavor to lockdowns, to the ways they were enacted, and to the basic curtailment of freedom that they entail to place them in the same ballpark as the types of policies that we usually associate with third world dictatorships or communist regimes.

Of course we also know that most of the offense taken here is feigned precisely because the very same people who get outraged at these comparisons spent the last 1.5 years indulging in far more severe hyperbole by likening even modest expressions of skepticism about lockdowns and masks to eugenics, ethnic cleansing, racism, and attempted murder.


----------



## dad4 (Aug 22, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> "The bottom line was that, in contrast to the other variants, vaccinated people, even if they didn't get sick, got infected and shed virus at similar levels as unvaccinated people who got infected," Dr. Walter Orenstein, who heads the Emory Vaccine Center and who viewed the documents, told CNN.


I think there is a question of duration.  Not just "what level if virus do you emit?", but also "for how many days are you emitting high levels of virus?".

The claim is that vaccinated folks spend less time emitting, because it takes less time before their immune system kicks in.

There is also a question of probability of infection.  If vaccinated people are less likely to get covid, then they are also less likely to spread it- even if the disease per patient is identical.

Data in Santa Clara County is that unvaccinated folks are testing positive at four times the rate for vaccinated people.  

I suspect the "same as unvaccinated" headline was an attempt to shift public behavior towards acceptance of universal masking.

I am happy to do my part and I fully support universal indoor masking, but I'm not a fan of playing data games to justify it.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 22, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> After reading through the thread you seem to be projecting it yet another attempt to squirm away from your statements.


Like father like sonspola....nothing said.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Aug 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> *I think there is a question of duration.*  Not just "what level if virus do you emit?", but also "for how many days are you emitting high levels of virus?".
> 
> *The claim* is that vaccinated folks spend less time emitting, because it takes less time before their immune system kicks in.
> 
> ...


Lol! You just did.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

New university of Waterloo mannequin mask study.  Low efficacy (10%) for reduction of aerosolized particle for cloth masks.  Surgical about the same.  Kn and n95s performed substantially better but has to be fitted without gaps (problematic for kids). If you all are going the Gottlieb route and want low level npis you are going to have to do higher quality masks and ban home made ones let alone bandanas and gaiters


----------



## watfly (Aug 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> Watching someone slowly get to their point is excruciating.  Then, they repeat themselves, including the same pseudo-dramatic buildup.


Tangential thought...you've described Rachel Maddow to perfection.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

Summary and study itself here.  You all will recall I said cloth masks probably reduced particles from 5-15%....this study found 10% which puts me at the bullseye...yet another thing you can throw on my list of rightness.  The study also found ventilation was sometimes even more effective than masks.  Cloth masks only had a 50% reduction through the material, but the majority of escape was in the gaps around the mask.  The recommendation is better masks + ventilation.

Based on the study, also here's an anecdote.  DS and I were enjoying our Sunday dinner at a Mexican restaurant, outdoors, no masks.  A 4-5 year old girl walks in with her family at a neighboring table....she's wearing a full size adult surgical masks.  Larger than 3 cm holes gaping around her cheeks.  Extrapolating from the study, that mask is doing nothing to protect her, nothing to protect those around her, but yet is acceptable in school.  Go figure

If y'all want to do masking, we've got to stop the security theater of cloth masks.  The discussion should be about mandating higher quality masks and what the costs and benefits are of that.  Y'all don't want to do that, though, because you know the majority will tell you to stuff it, particularly when it comes to putting kids in those masks all day, as illustrated by our dinner neighbors.









						Experimental investigation of indoor aerosol dispersion and accumulation in the context of COVID-19: Effects of masks and ventilation
					

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of aerosol dispersion in disease transmission in indoor environments. The present study experimentally investigates the dispersion and b...



					aip.scitation.org
				











						New UW study suggests better masks are needed to curb COVID-19 indoors
					

Their study revealed that commonly worn cloth masks only filter 10 per cent of aerosol droplets, which are so tiny they become suspended in the air and can travel




					www.kitchenertoday.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> I think there is a question of duration.  Not just "what level if virus do you emit?", but also "for how many days are you emitting high levels of virus?".
> 
> The claim is that vaccinated folks spend less time emitting, because it takes less time before their immune system kicks in.
> 
> ...


So you are saying they lied to us (yet again!!!)?  We actually agree on something since the most recent data does not support the notion vaccinated folks have the probability of infection: lower viral loads, lower time period contagious, less likely to get COVID or at a minimum a high viral load case.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

The Sweden experiment: how no lockdowns led to better mental health, a healthier economy and happier schoolchildren
					

While Sweden's decision to stay open throughout the pandemic generated international debate, the controversy passed most people in Sweden by




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So you are saying they lied to us (yet again!!!)?  We actually agree on something since the most recent data does not support the notion vaccinated folks have the probability of infection: lower viral loads, lower time period contagious, less likely to get COVID or at a minimum a high viral load case.


Further to this....








						Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine-breakthrough infections: a multi-center cohort study
					

Objectives Highly effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed but variants of concerns (VOCs) with mutations in the spike protein are worrisome, especially B.1.617.2 (Delta) which has rapidly spread across the world. We aim to study...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Further to this....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


ps if this holds up it pushes me more towards the UK approach (because that frees up vaccines for use in the third world rather than another round of boosters in the first world, except for the aged and immunocompromised).  But I'd still want to know: how does it hold up over time, what role exactly does natural immunity play on this, is it enough to say that the vaccines initial dose substantially precludes serious illness and serious long term harm.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

Australia has lost its mind.  Shooting dogs to stop COVID spread.  Yes, it's 1 council (but 1 council with zero covid and they are shooting dogs!!!)









						'Completely appalled': NSW council shoots shelter dogs over Covid infection fears
					

Among those euthanised was a dog that had recently given birth to a litter of puppies.




					www.nzherald.co.nz


----------



## dad4 (Aug 22, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> So you are saying they lied to us (yet again!!!)?  We actually agree on something since the most recent data does not support the notion vaccinated folks have the probability of infection: lower viral loads, lower time period contagious, less likely to get COVID or at a minimum a high viral load case.


What do you expect?   The right has politicized the heck out of scientific advice.  And you were first in line to cheer as they did it.

Result?  No more nuanced advice for you.  Advice with error bars?  Nope.  Current best guess, knowing it will be partly wrong?  Nope.  Senator Paul has proven that we aren't mature enough to receive the real version.

Instead, we get the scrubbed and sanitized version, curated for political survival on YouTube.  

Congrats.  Hope you're happy.  Enjoy your next your next YouTube lesson.  I hear they have a great video comparing mosquitoes to chain link fences.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What do you expect?   The right has politicized the heck out of scientific advice.  And you were first in line to cheer as they did it.
> 
> Result?  No more nuanced advice for you.  Advice with error bars?  Nope.  Current best guess, knowing it will be partly wrong?  Nope.  Senator Paul has proven that we aren't mature enough to receive the real version.
> 
> ...


Errr. Fauci and co were the ones that started lying about it when they said don’t buy the masks at the beginning of this.  Several of them admitted they lied to protect the Ppe supply for health care workers.  Then remember the herd immunity goal posts he kept moving?  But of course you choose to forget that.  By their horrible messaging on everything from masks to the China lab leak, they have destroyed their own credibility. Credibility is earned and they’ve torched it.  You yourself just provided another example of it. Congrats.


----------



## N00B (Aug 22, 2021)

dad4 said:


> What do you expect?   The right has politicized the heck out of scientific advice.  And you were first in line to cheer as they did it.
> 
> Result?  No more nuanced advice for you.  Advice with error bars?  Nope.  Current best guess, knowing it will be partly wrong?  Nope.  Senator Paul has proven that we aren't mature enough to receive the real version.
> 
> ...


Walk back slowly… and Grace won’t strike. 

BTW…she’s kinda a troll too (really anyone in this forum at this point is to some degree, like you.).

Maybe scorning the ‘right’ on politicizing things is missing the forest for the trees.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 22, 2021)

N00B said:


> Walk back slowly… and Grace won’t strike.
> 
> BTW…she’s kinda a troll too (really anyone in this forum at this point is to some degree, like you.).
> 
> Maybe scorning the ‘right’ on politicizing things is missing the forest for the trees.


The sad thing is we actually agreed on something there before he went political. I thought for a moment we would start holding hands and singing kumbaya but now I’m sure he regrets pointing out the lie by the experts


after all these posts on this thread I think you have a fair point about everyone. It depends on your definition of troll. Folks like roadrunner or dad on the pro side or kicking myself watfly or even bruddah on the con can be classified more at this points as zealots. That’s different though than busker/espola/eotl/sheriff joe that just want to stir up conflict and actually enjoy it. Then you have crush doing his own thing.

I posted a few days ago that both sides are near the end of their patience with one another. You can see it in the lashing out on these forums by both sides.  With eu authorization coming off of Pfizer for the 16 and over and the coming mandate fights it’s about to get the ugliest yet


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> The sad thing is we actually agreed on something there before he went political. I thought for a moment we would start holding hands and singing kumbaya but now I’m sure he regrets pointing out the lie by the experts
> 
> 
> after all these posts on this thread I think you have a fair point about everyone. It depends on your definition of troll. Folks like roadrunner or dad on the pro side or kicking myself watfly or even bruddah on the con can be classified more at this points as zealots. That’s different though than busker/espola/eotl/sheriff joe that just want to stir up conflict and actually enjoy it. Then you have crush doing his own thing.
> ...


Your whole approach is steeped in the political. It is so entrenched in you that you can’t see it. You obviously have been so deeply immersed in rightwing thought that you feel it’s just the way everyone thinks. That and you are super defensive about it.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 23, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Your whole approach is steeped in the political. It is so entrenched in you that you can’t see it. You obviously have been so deeply immersed in rightwing thought that you feel it’s just the way everyone thinks. That and you are super defensive about it.


1. Covid unfortunately as dom discovered by its nature is political
2. I actually lean left on most things. Was not a trump fan, have been to the left of dad4 on some issues, po’d some people by criticizing trump on Afghanistan, voted and campaigned for Obama. 
3. But the righties at least so far have been more right on covid. Sorry if that ticks you off. 
4. My politics are actually the closest to tulsi


----------



## crush (Aug 23, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 23, 2021)

So we went in to limit their ability to fight, clean out the bad guys etc.

On the way out we leave them a very nice parting gift. They have better stuff than ever before.

“the U.S. gave Afghan forces an estimated $28 billion in weaponry between 2002 and 2017. But now, ‘everything that hasn’t been destroyed is the Taliban’s now,’ a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters.”


----------



## crush (Aug 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So we went in to limit their ability to fight, clean out the bad guys etc.
> 
> On the way out we leave them a very nice parting gift. They have better stuff than ever before.
> 
> “the U.S. gave Afghan forces an estimated $28 billion in weaponry between 2002 and 2017. But now, ‘everything that hasn’t been destroyed is the Taliban’s now,’ a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters.”


Hound, are you now seeing the board?  Get ready bro.  Game on!!!


----------



## crush (Aug 23, 2021)

"Christian" churches are having a hard time.  Some preach jab and obey and some preach "stay away from Jab" and other conspiracy theories.  Oc Register said, "Leaders of some nondenominational churches in Southern California are using their pulpits to push hard for Trump-brand Republicanism. Some also are *promoting conspiracy theories, such as false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump.* And some pastors are embracing the broad theory of Christian nationalism, which says America is defined as a Christian nation and must return to those roots."

This is all about "Us vs Them" Game of Life.  It's such an easy game to play and evil to implement.  WHO likes to teach hate, division, spite, us vs them, my way or the highway and so many more dualistic us vs them games?  I know the answer btw   These fools make a buck no matter what side wins because their the one's inventing the game, making the rules up as they go, move goal post anytime they want and they get to be the ref and Commissioner.  That's called a twofer or being on both sides of power & control to cash in.  Prescott Bush did it as did some other rich assholes.  I dont think the claim of the Election fraud is proven yet to be false either.  OC writer is implying that folks like me are making up false claims.  We dont know yet if these claims are false.  Clapper said yesterday all t supporters are Taliban now.  So in two weeks the left has called people like me Schmucks, drunk drivers, virus spreaders, super spreaders, conspiracy whackos, freedom fighters, warriors for God and truth, Taliban Terrorist, anti-Vaxxers, anti mask and guilty of giving everyone the Delta after they got Vaccinated twice.  The truth is I lost everything and most on here won't if things go the way they hope.  I too have hope but my hope is slipping away.  However, if my way is the right way and I just have to let it ride, then the tables will be turned.  This is all I hope for.  The first shall be last and the last first.  I played fair you guys and you will all see a miracle.


----------



## crush (Aug 23, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Aug 23, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429785333516972038


----------



## crush (Aug 23, 2021)




----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429785333516972038


Based on other countries with Delta we have seen it all run its course in roughly 8 weeks. 

I honestly wonder why people freak out. Make crazy projections. 

We have real world data from a variety of western countries who have had their delta wave. Those waves all lasted roughly the same amount of time. Lots of cases, relatively few extra deaths. 

Logically one would assume we would look at that and go with that. 

And yet we see doomsday forecasts, plans for restrictions, etc. 

Why do we assume the US is going to experience it differently vs any other place? 

Now some may say overall it will be around longer. That in a sense may be true. However regionally (the South, the SW, the Midwest, the East) I lay money they see similar curves to what other countries already have. And those countries didn't have a bad experience.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Based on other countries with Delta we have seen it all run its course in roughly 8 weeks.
> 
> I honestly wonder why people freak out. Make crazy projections.
> 
> ...


Agree but two caveats:

The UK if you look at it now is plateaued...my best guess it's a combination of their d---- the torpedos position re natural infection, the fact that the other countries (besides England) did not remove all their restrictions and are now at the peak of their respective waves), and that England had its wave "out of season".

The southern US (and Los Angeles) are following the same seasonal pattern as last year.  But IF (have no idea if it is or isn't) seasonality is a big part of the effect, we should see more severe winter waves particularly in the north....the other variable here is how the thing continues to mutate.  How messed up is Los Angeles, BTW, to have a double season: both summer and winter???


----------



## crush (Aug 23, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Agree but two caveats:
> 
> The UK if you look at it now is plateaued...my best guess it's a combination of their d---- the torpedos position re natural infection, the fact that the other countries (besides England) did not remove all their restrictions and are now at the peak of their respective waves), and that England had its wave "out of season".
> 
> The southern US (and Los Angeles) are following the same seasonal pattern as last year.  But IF (have no idea if it is or isn't) seasonality is a big part of the effect, we should see more severe winter waves particularly in the north....the other variable here is how the thing continues to mutate.  How messed up is Los Angeles, BTW, to have a double season: both summer and winter???


This goes way deeper then the flu Grace.  Cheaters are now the liars and the hunted.  They were hunting us for so long, but now they are the hunted.  Table have truly turned and I can;t wait to see the new earth, full of truth, justice and equality for all humans. They have to try and lie their way out of this mess they created with so much brainwashing and hope a mistake happens.  I too was in a cult so I know how the brain works.  Where is the freaking Flu btw?  People are awake now and I know another group of men & woman who are so pissed off right now and for obvious reasons. This is the group I would not mess with.


----------



## watfly (Aug 23, 2021)

Mandatory Masking of School Children is a Bad Idea
					

The benefits of masks in preventing serious illness or death from COVID-19 among children are small. Meanwhile, they are disruptive to learning and communicating in classrooms.




					healthpolicy.usc.edu


----------



## crush (Aug 23, 2021)

watfly said:


> Mandatory Masking of School Children is a Bad Idea
> 
> 
> The benefits of masks in preventing serious illness or death from COVID-19 among children are small. Meanwhile, they are disruptive to learning and communicating in classrooms.
> ...


----------



## dad4 (Aug 23, 2021)

If Gottlieb is right that schools are driving FL cases, then the next 4 weeks may tell us whether there is a community spread benefit of school masking. 

 ( Lots of schools starting masked right about now.  )


----------



## crush (Aug 23, 2021)

dad4 said:


> If Gottlieb is right that schools are driving FL cases, then the next 4 weeks may tell us whether there is a community spread benefit of school masking.
> 
> ( Lots of schools starting masked right about now.  )


What board does Gottlieb sit on?  He was FDA Commissioner at one time, no?  I seriously can;t believe some of you.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 23, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> So we went in to limit their ability to fight, clean out the bad guys etc.
> 
> On the way out we leave them a very nice parting gift. They have better stuff than ever before.
> 
> “the U.S. gave Afghan forces an estimated $28 billion in weaponry between 2002 and 2017. But now, ‘everything that hasn’t been destroyed is the Taliban’s now,’ a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters.”


That's a lot of batteries for the goodies on the rifles and their cool new night vision goggles. .  They'll need to figure out a way to order batteries from Amazon.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 23, 2021)

Hawaii despite 60% fully vaxxed, dining at 50% and a mask mandate has hit record cases numbers (4x higher than any prior peak). 1. Their npis seem to be working….no? 2. They have under discussion beach closures again.  As I said previously it’s never going to end at just masks.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 24, 2021)

what-happened said:


> That's a lot of batteries for the goodies on the rifles and their cool new night vision goggles. .  They'll need to figure out a way to order batteries from Amazon.


They will just bypass Amazon and go to the source...China.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 24, 2021)

In fauci’s latest appearance he says IF many more people (including kids 5-12) get vaccinated we might return back to normal next spring. 1. We’ll seasonality is a thing so yeah by spring things will level off same as this year or the year before 2. That will have been 2 years of this stuff…remember when it was 14 days? 3. He could always move goalposts again….won’t it then be about vaxxing the preschoolers and babies? but 4. That’s the end of the Biden admin (was watching cnn…they said as much, even if it isn’t Biden’s fault). Biden’s entire selling point was that it was time for responsible leadership.  The plan was for back to normal by July 4 (he said as much) then watch the economy take off and ride that into the midterms. Between Afghanistan (which is at least partially Biden’s fault) and the extension of covid emergencies (which isn’t except to the extent he’s kept people like fauci around) the idea of responsible leadership is in tatters.


----------



## what-happened (Aug 24, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> They will just bypass Amazon and go to the source...China.


While our battery comments are flippant, it is likely that China will gain influence in Afghanistan.  The Chinese are adept at pinching their noses and entrenching themselves in unlikely countries for their own economic gain.  The Taliban need the cash infusion and China has the cash to give.  By SEP 11, we will have zero influence in Afghanistan.  Probably more important, we'll have zero credibility.


----------



## crush (Aug 24, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> In fauci’s latest appearance he says IF many more people (including kids 5-12) get vaccinated we might return back to normal next spring. 1. We’ll seasonality is a thing so yeah by spring things will level off same as this year or the year before 2. That will have been 2 years of this stuff…remember when it was 14 days? 3. He could always move goalposts again….won’t it then be about vaxxing the preschoolers and babies? but 4. That’s the end of the Biden admin (was watching cnn…they said as much, even if it isn’t Biden’s fault). Biden’s entire selling point was that it was time for responsible leadership.  The plan was for back to normal by July 4 (he said as much) then watch the economy take off and ride that into the midterms. Between Afghanistan (which is at least partially Biden’s fault) and the extension of covid emergencies (which isn’t except to the extent he’s kept people like fauci around) the idea of responsible leadership is in tatters.


Dr. Fraud also said he, "misspoke" the last time he lied.  Another time he was caught lying, he said he did it for our own good, as to not cause us to all panic.  This dude is so full of shit.  Dude runs around with Bill, Jeffrey, Klause, Nancy, Adam, Eric, Jack and that Zucker dude who is fucker to so many and sucker to the rest.  So many of you bought into the fraud.  It happens to the best of us.  I will 100% keep positive thoughts and prayer for of you.  I do hear in Euro they have ways to get that shit out of your blood cells.  I'm dead serious.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 24, 2021)

Again dad4, it was never going to end at indoor masks (Oregon, Los Angeles County, Hawaii) and vaccine mandates.  And we aren't even into September yet.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430270923186315266


----------



## crush (Aug 25, 2021)




----------



## Grace T. (Aug 25, 2021)

Here's the other shoe to drop in the vaccine wars.  Now that Pfizer has been approved, the health insurance companies are signaling rates will go up, by about $200 per month to start, on unvaccinated employees.  Employers will be pushed to have employees attest to their vaccination status, possibly passing on the costs of the unvaccinated to the employee.

p.s. if boosters are required periodically get ready to attest every year you've received your booster, much as you would your smoking status


----------



## espola (Aug 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Here's the other shoe to drop in the vaccine wars.  Now that Pfizer has been approved, the health insurance companies are signaling rates will go up, by about $200 per month to start, on unvaccinated employees.  Employers will be pushed to have employees attest to their vaccination status, possibly passing on the costs of the unvaccinated to the employee.
> 
> p.s. if boosters are required periodically get ready to attest every year you've received your booster, much as you would your smoking status


Wars?  Signalling?

Looks like you are panicking.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Wars?  Signalling?
> 
> Looks like you are panicking.


If Cola, burgers and energy drinke can have wars, vaccines certainly can.

"Brawndo is what makes plants grow....it has electrolytes."


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 25, 2021)

Masks are not cost free.  One of the costs is they are an additional problem contributing to the labor force shortages.









						Ford CEO: Up to 20% of factory workers are out on some days
					

Face masks are required again in major US auto factories and, according to Ford CEO Jim Farley, that has some workers deciding not to show up for work. In some factories, absentee rates can exceed 20%, he said in an interview with CNN Business.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 25, 2021)

espola said:


> Wars?  Signalling?
> 
> Looks like you are panicking.


Gee I wonder from which realm of the political spectrum did Grace absorb those particular terms from and the narrative that goes with it? Oh wait! Grace is apolitical, my bad. Lol!


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 25, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Gee I wonder from which realm of the political spectrum did Grace absorb those particular terms from and the narrative that goes with it? Oh wait! Grace is apolitical, my bad. Lol!


I never claimed to be apolitical.  Again, my politics are probably closest to Tulsi.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 25, 2021)

And so it begins.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430531373366980614


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 25, 2021)

RSV epidemic in Japan (despite masks).  As someone suffering from long RSV, particular interest to me.....It's suggested the same thing may happen with respect to flu.  Both RSV and flu kill thousands of aged every year, and are far deadlier to the youngest than COVID.









						Resurgence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections during COVID-19 Pandemic, Tokyo, Japan
					

Resurgence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections during COVID-19 Pandemic, Tokyo




					wwwnc.cdc.gov


----------



## espola (Aug 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I never claimed to be apolitical.  Again, my politics are probably closest to Tulsi.


You're not fooling anybody


----------



## Kicker4Life (Aug 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Masks are not cost free.  One of the costs is they are an additional problem contributing to the labor force shortages.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


A large portion of our society are using the 3ply and/or KN/N95’s which are made of 100% polyester.  Polyester does NOT biodegrade and in the spun bonded and or melt lien form that are used for masks, it is not recyclable either.  They will just fill our landfills and oceans. 

Where are all the Single Use plastic crusaders?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 25, 2021)

espola said:


> You're not fooling anybody


Not trying to.  Have been very upfront about my political beliefs, including who I am a fan girl of.

You aren't fooling anybody either.  We know you are a fool, a liar and a troll.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 25, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> A large portion of our society are using the 3ply and/or KN/N95’s which are made of 100% polyester.  Polyester does NOT biodegrade and in the spun bonded and or melt lien form that are used for masks, it is not recyclable either.  They will just fill our landfills and oceans.
> 
> Where are all the Single Use plastic crusaders?


I'm old enough to remember when plastic straws were an issue.  I still get a chuckle now days when a waiter wearing a mask brings me a drink with a paper straw.


----------



## Desert Hound (Aug 25, 2021)

Not our best and brightest.


----------



## watfly (Aug 25, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Where are all the Single Use plastic crusaders?


Sipping Rose' from their paper straws.


----------



## N00B (Aug 25, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Where are all the Single Use plastic crusaders?


They’re busy trying to offset the impact of their organic cloth shopping bags… only 19,742 more uses to go…









						The Cotton Tote Crisis (Published 2021)
					

You can get cotton bags pretty much everywhere. How did an environmental solution become part of the problem?




					www.google.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 25, 2021)

Natural immunity far exceeds vaccine-induced immunity.  

BTW, if this holds up, that's one prong of the test for whether the UK approach is the correct one.  The other is how effective are the vaccines really against severe illness.









						Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections
					

Background Reports of waning vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 have begun to surface. With that, the comparable long-term protection conferred by previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 remains unclear.  Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study comparing three groups...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## what-happened (Aug 25, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> Not our best and brightest.
> 
> View attachment 11527


The comments are a must read.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Aug 25, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> I never claimed to be apolitical.  Again, my politics are probably closest to Tulsi.


So the blame for the conflict in Syria is on the USA?


----------



## what-happened (Aug 26, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> So the blame for the conflict in Syria is on the USA?


which part?


----------



## EvilGoalie 21 (Aug 26, 2021)

On the Gazit et al preprint that got linked I think on this thread, although maybe it was the other one.  Compared to the previous MedXriv preprint, this one, IMO is pretty much a dud.  There is probably not much point to bringing it up, but since I read it there are two obvious problems.  The first is in the design of the study.  The second is that the authors do not do due diligence in insulating their work from the infodemic.

The first problem kind of illustrates how with statistics sometimes you try to avoid a problem but it pops up again in a different way.  With the Israeli data the thing is you are up against is the fact that the vaxx % of the population is high, so vaxxed people will be the most frequently challenged for delta infection, and that colors everything with respect to analysis of the efficacy of vaccination.  One way to get around that is to do a cohort study, which is what this work is. They go into a government medical database and do a number of comparisons by making matched cohorts, the most relevant of which is that they match an equal number of double vaxxed people with virally infected people and ask, how often to they get delta.  The result, in a nutshell, is that out of ~32000 people in the cohorts they see about 250 delta infections.  Thus, the principle observation is that, either with double pop or viral infection, the risk of infection with delta is low.  Immunity works pretty damned good.  The other thing they should then bring to the fore is that when the outcome of interest (ie delta infection) is low, a cohort study is subject to statistical artifacts with respect to how the relatively few outcomes observed bin between the two cohort groups. But they don't address that, and calculate that the few infection events that they observe bin with an ~13X bias towards vaxx individuals.  If the authors were challenged on that, as I suspect they will be during review, they'd say well our CI.  That's fine, but the CI only has relevance to the group of people selected to be in the cohorts, not the broader population more generally.  Which then calls the relevance of their study into question.  And so the initial statistical problem pops back out again.

There are things they could do.  They almost certainly wrote an algorithm to scan the database to generate their cohorts.  They could easily do it multiple times to see if their small number of delta infections bin the same way each time. They could take their 13X value and see if it is predictive for a broader, random sampling (certainly in the case of the much more granular and higher statistically powered REACT data from the UK this would not be true).  But much more relevantly, they should simply do comparisons where they compare double pop and viral priming of immunity cohorts to cohorts of unifected, immunologically naieve, individual in the database.  And then look at relative protection.  That's is the almost unexplicable part of the study, why they don't do that.  

As it is, this study is statistically questionable, and, even worse, designed in such a way as to make it a prime candidate for misappropriation in the infodemic.  There are paid (and probably unpaid too) people who scan MedRriv, Rsquare, etc servers for titles and abstracts that can be pumped directly into that digital caldron.  This one is easy pickings.


----------



## crush (Aug 27, 2021)

RIP to all those killed because some like to make money on war, destruction and Human Trafficking.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 27, 2021)

This one is making the rounds around some con circles trying to prove that masking doesn't do anything because 80% of the students near the teacher came down with COVID despite wearing masks, and 50% of the class overall came down with COVID.  We already know that basic masks do virtually nothing to protect the wearer and we knew that already.  But it notes that the teacher took off the mask to read, which is the fly in this particular argument, because it doesn't address the my mask protects others argument.  But what's worse, the teacher came to school with symptoms in the time she was waiting for the COVID test.  If anything, this seems to stand for the proposition that the highest risk factor in the classroom is having an unvaccinated teacher that is stupid enough to come to school with symptoms. 









						Outbreak Associated with SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta)...
					

COVID-19 outbreak associated with an unvaccinated infected teacher in an elementary school from May–June 2021 in Marin County, California.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## espola (Aug 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This one is making the rounds around some con circles trying to prove that masking doesn't do anything because 80% of the students near the teacher came down with COVID despite wearing masks, and 50% of the class overall came down with COVID.  We already know that basic masks do virtually nothing to protect the wearer and we knew that already.  But it notes that the teacher took off the mask to read, which is the fly in this particular argument, because it doesn't address the my mask protects others argument.  But what's worse, the teacher came to school with symptoms in the time she was waiting for the COVID test.  If anything, this seems to stand for the proposition that the highest risk factor in the classroom is having an unvaccinated teacher that is stupid enough to come to school with symptoms.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


When you start with the premise that you are attempting to prove, the work is much easier.  Am I right?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 27, 2021)

Ouch....Australia still unable to get the Delta under control despite masking, lockdowns and troops on the streets.  What worked before isn't working now.









						Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 27, 2021)

Yet, still no word on treatments despite 1 year and a half.  That's a disgrace.  And remdesivir...ouch.









						COVID-19 early treatment: real-time analysis of 2,228 studies
					

COVID-19 early treatment: real-time analysis of 2,228 studies




					c19early.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 27, 2021)

Denmark all in on the UK approach.....









						Denmark to lift all remaining Covid restrictions on 10 September
					

Health ministry says high level of vaccination means virus ‘no longer a critical threat to society’




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## watfly (Aug 27, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> This one is making the rounds around some con circles trying to prove that masking doesn't do anything because 80% of the students near the teacher came down with COVID despite wearing masks, and 50% of the class overall came down with COVID.  We already know that basic masks do virtually nothing to protect the wearer and we knew that already.  But it notes that the teacher took off the mask to read, which is the fly in this particular argument, because it doesn't address the my mask protects others argument.  But what's worse, the teacher came to school with symptoms in the time she was waiting for the COVID test.  If anything, this seems to stand for the proposition that the highest risk factor in the classroom is having an unvaccinated teacher that is stupid enough to come to school with symptoms.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah, she came to work because she thought the mask would protect others.  That's the problem with masks as their effectiveness has been grossly exaggerated. (aka the policies that imply masks are better than vaccines).

The other problem is the execution of proper mask wearing which is going to be poor with children, for that matter the public in general.  That's why lab studies of mask filtering and plume redirection are not that relevant.

I wear a mask in public when required, which for me is just airplanes or doctors office.  I'm avoiding LA not because of their Covid rules but because it has turned into a shithole.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 27, 2021)

Science picking this up too.





__





						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org


----------



## crush (Aug 29, 2021)

*RIP Brave Warriors!!!*
Check this out you guys.  Two men by the name of Hunter that we can think about.  One Hunter is selling art work for $500,000 a piece and has THREE LAPTOPS FROM HELL with so much evil it will make you puke.  The other Hunter just died for our country.  Why did he die?  We also lost a few others from the IE.  My son's best friend Zack is serving.  As you drive past Camp Pendleton to watch kids play soccer or Silver Lakes, keep the 13 in your thoughts and Prayers and their loved ones.


----------



## crush (Aug 29, 2021)

Love the "13."  RIP!!!


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## Grace T. (Aug 29, 2021)

EU to Reimpose Entry Ban on Travellers From US & 5 Other Third Countries on Monday, Sources Say - SchengenVisaInfo.com
					

For the most recent update on this topic, check EU Council Recommends Reinstating Travel Restrictions for Visitors from US, Israel, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia & Lebanon! Two officials within the European Union institutions have confirmed for Reuters that the EU Council will on Monday...



					www.schengenvisainfo.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 30, 2021)

Big island despite masks and vaccines is imposing a new round of business restrictions.  Other counties are pressuring the state govt to restrict travel and/or approve their restrictions. Despite masks and vaccines.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 30, 2021)

Belongs in the good news thread but you know me.....









						“Inescapable” COVID-19 Antibody Discovery – Neutralizes All Known SARS-CoV-2 Strains
					

An antibody therapy that appears to neutralize all known SARS-CoV-2 strains, and other coronaviruses, was developed with a little help from structural biologist Jay Nix. Lifesaving COVID-19 vaccines are allowing us to feel optimistic again, after more than a year of anxiety and tragedy. But vacci



					scitechdaily.com


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 30, 2021)

UK: We Are Changing Our School Masking Guidance, and Recommending...Even Fewer Masks
					

Evidence.




					townhall.com


----------



## espola (Aug 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Belongs in the good news thread but you know me.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's nice.  The current antibody treatment (remdesvir) costs about $1200 per shot (paid for by the covid authorities).  What will the price of this new one be?


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 30, 2021)

Australia waiving the white flag on zero COVID, though given the vaccination numbers they are demanding, probably won't exit from restrictions until the end of the year.....









						Australia to end 'covid zero' policy: 'Not a sustainable way to live'
					

Australia is set to end its "covid zero" policy after Prime Minister Scott Morrison determined that the country’s approach is not "sustainable" in the face of the more infectious COVID-19 delta variant.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## watfly (Aug 30, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> UK: We Are Changing Our School Masking Guidance, and Recommending...Even Fewer Masks
> 
> 
> Evidence.
> ...


I guess the UK has fewer adults that are afraid of children.


----------



## Grace T. (Aug 30, 2021)

watfly said:


> I guess the UK has fewer adults that are afraid of children.


Gotta give this guy props though...at least he's wearing something that might actually work.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430541556679954441


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 1, 2021)

New mask study....an attempt at RCT.  Caveats: mask wearing was imperfect, social distancing was mixed in with the mask wearing, most of the study was pre-delta wave, and some people refused blood collection so they are only going largely on symptoms...something for both masks skeptics and mask proponents to challenge.  Found about a reduction of 1% from 8.62% to 7.62% in symptoms between the intervention and control arms.  Surgical masks caused a little more than a 10% reduction, cloth masks statistically 0%.




			https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf


----------



## watfly (Sep 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> New mask study....an attempt at RCT.  Caveats: mask wearing was imperfect, social distancing was mixed in with the mask wearing, most of the study was pre-delta wave, and some people refused blood collection so they are only going largely on symptoms...something for both masks skeptics and mask proponents to challenge.  Found about a reduction of 1% from 8.62% to 7.62% in symptoms between the intervention and control arms.  Surgical masks caused a little more than a 10% reduction, cloth masks statistically 0%.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I find your posts irresponsible.  Just questioning the efficacy of masks is going to cause someone to not wear a mask and that person is going to kill me and others.  Please stop your shameful behavior.


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 1, 2021)

watfly said:


> I find your posts irresponsible.  Just questioning the efficacy of masks is going to cause someone to not wear a mask and that person is going to kill me and others.  Please stop your shameful behavior.


The funny thing is it's being sold as a "masks work" study...it kind of is...a little bit...which is where I was pre-delta.


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 1, 2021)

Not every kid with a disability is getting an exemption....








						Albemarle mask policy keeps some students with disabilities out of buildings
					

“It's trying to get your toddler to wear a mask,” she said. “If the toddler feels like it, they do it and if they don't, they don’t. It’s not viciousness;




					dailyprogress.com


----------



## Desert Hound (Sep 1, 2021)

Worth a read. And belongs in bad news section.









						"Breaking Points": On Afghanistan, the Revolving Door, and Media Failure to Disclose Contracting Ties of Guests
					

Discussing the forever war and the prospects for a third party with old friends Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti




					taibbi.substack.com


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 1, 2021)

Consensus beginning to form around cloth masks should go.....









						RIP cloth masks? Why airlines and governments are banning them
					

Cloth masks, a staple of the pandemic, are now banned on some airlines and in public spaces in Germany and Austria, because there are no standards guiding their efficacy.




					www.fastcompany.com


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 1, 2021)

An article in Forbes, now apparently removed....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431043943920283651


----------



## espola (Sep 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> An article in Forbes, now apparently removed....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431043943920283651


"This page is no longer active"


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 1, 2021)

espola said:


> "This page is no longer active"


Yup


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## Kicker4Life (Sep 1, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Consensus beginning to form around cloth masks should go.....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Should make the single use plastic warriors very angry!


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## Grace T. (Sep 1, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> Should make the single use plastic warriors very angry!


The other problem is children.  Properly fitting medical grade masks are difficult to obtain for them.  It's also clear that while the surgicals may help a little (at least pre Delta), they aren't as good as the KN95s and N95s and those are difficult to find (particularly for single use) let alone fit to kids let alone have them wear it all day.


----------



## espola (Sep 1, 2021)

Desantis is trying really hard to take over t's role as idiot-in-chief --









						Florida Department of Health’s new rule: $5,000 fines for some vaccine mandates
					

Businesses, schools and governments can’t deny service to unvaccinated Floridians under a state law passed this year.




					www.tampabay.com


----------



## espola (Sep 2, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1433134944398848008


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 2, 2021)

The governor has denied he will lockdown but Hawaii is coming under tremendous pressure, despite a more than 60% vaxx rate, masking and indoor dining/bar restrictions and now limits on gatherings, to do some shut downs.   That evil Ron DeSantis strikes again!  If it wasn't for him those masks would be working!









						Hawaii Considering Labor Day Weekend Lockdown As COVID Cases Rise
					

The recent rise in COVID cases has lead officials in Hawaii to continue talks about the possibility of a lockdown for Labor Day weekend.




					www.travelawaits.com


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 2, 2021)

Australia has become very concerning.  That evil Ron DeSantis just keeps making messes of things!










						Australia Traded Away Too Much Liberty
					

How long can a democracy maintain emergency restrictions and still call itself a free country?




					www.theatlantic.com
				












						Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Kicker4Life (Sep 3, 2021)




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## crush (Sep 3, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> View attachment 11580


Wow!!!!


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Sep 3, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> View attachment 11580


Where is this?


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## Kicker4Life (Sep 3, 2021)

kickingandscreaming said:


> Where is this?


School in San Fernando Valley


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## Grace T. (Sep 3, 2021)

US missed jobs expectations today in some disappointing economic news.  The talking heads are saying it's COVID related (the blue states and DC where people are more scared tended to do worse).  At the end of last year I said there was a greater than 65% chance of inflationary events, a 40% chance of stagflation.









						U.S. hiring slows to just 235,000 jobs after 2 strong months
					

The unemployment rate dropped to 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent in July.




					www.politico.com


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 3, 2021)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1433854512356335625


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Sep 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> US missed jobs expectations today in some disappointing economic news.  The talking heads are saying it's COVID related (the blue states and DC where people are more scared tended to do worse).  At the end of last year I said there was a greater than 65% chance of inflationary events, a 40% chance of stagflation.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Or the red states where more people are now dying. Being aware isn’t being scared. Do you allow your children to run out on to the freeway? Chances are they’d be fine.


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## EvilGoalie 21 (Sep 4, 2021)

Kicker4Life said:


> School in San Fernando Valley


Not really.  It's from New York.  Third from right is Gov announcing funding thing for daycare.  It met New York St. guidance at time (Jul 6) but, yes, bad look.  If you saw it referenced as a CA pic somebody may be trying to pump this image into the recall campaign.









						Did Kathy Hochul Go Maskless in a Classroom With Children?
					

Yes.




					factcheck.thedispatch.com


----------



## espola (Sep 4, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Or the red states where more people are now dying. Being aware isn’t being scared. Do you allow your children to run out on to the freeway? Chances are they’d be fine.


Using jibes like "scared" or 'team panic" helps some of us rationalize what we know deep down is sociopathic selfishness.


----------



## espola (Sep 4, 2021)




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## Kicker4Life (Sep 4, 2021)

EvilGoalie 21 said:


> Not really.  It's from New York.  Third from right is Gov announcing funding thing for daycare.  It met New York St. guidance at time (Jul 6) but, yes, bad look.  If you saw it referenced as a CA pic somebody may be trying to pump this image into the recall campaign.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thx for clarifying that one, but as you know location wasn’t the key message.


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## Grace T. (Sep 4, 2021)

espola said:


> Using jibes like "scared" or 'team panic" helps some of us rationalize what we know deep down is sociopathic selfishness.


Like destroying 2 years of the kids childhoods for the sake of the elderly? Got it.


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## espola (Sep 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Like destroying 2 years of the kids childhoods for the sake of the elderly? Got it.


q.e.d.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Sep 4, 2021)

espola said:


> Using jibes like "scared" or 'team panic" helps some of us rationalize what we know deep down is sociopathic selfishness.


q.e.d.


----------



## espola (Sep 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Like destroying 2 years of the kids childhoods for the sake of the elderly? Got it.


My kids' childhoods were nothing like mine, and mine was nothing like my parents'. Nothing is being stolen - it's just a different story is being written.


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## Grace T. (Sep 4, 2021)

espola said:


> My kids' childhoods were nothing like mine, and mine was nothing like my parents'. Nothing is being stolen - it's just a different story is being written.


Wow.  Just when I thought I had seen everything from you….”it’s not worse…just different”


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## espola (Sep 4, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Wow.  Just when I thought I had seen everything from you….”it’s not worse…just different”


If I had children of school age, I would be teaching them how to deal with the issues, not just complain about them.


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## Grace T. (Sep 4, 2021)

espola said:


> If I had children of school age, I would be teaching them how to deal with the issues, not just complain about them.


Echoes of eotl here. Maybe crush is right after all….


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## crush (Sep 5, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Echoes of eotl here. *Maybe crush is right after all….*


You think?  That was the nicest thing someone has said to me in over three years.  I don;t want to come across as a know it all, but I do know a lot.  I came here to help point out what I know is going on.


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## Hüsker Dü (Sep 6, 2021)

espola said:


> If I had children of school age, I would be teaching them how to deal with the issues, not just complain about them.


Bitches bitch and whiners whine. Realist adapt and overcome. You can make lemonade or you can rub the lemons in your eyes your choice.


----------



## crush (Sep 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Bitches bitch and whiners whine. Realist adapt and overcome. You can make lemonade or you can rub the lemons in your eyes your choice.


If I was school age child, I would TP your house....lol!


----------



## watfly (Sep 6, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Bitches bitch and whiners whine. Realist adapt and overcome. You can make lemonade or you can rub the lemons in your eyes your choice.


Well at least notintheface has some misogynist company.


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Sep 7, 2021)

watfly said:


> Well at least notintheface has some misogynist company.


Quit crying bitch.


----------



## Chelsea dad g09 (Sep 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Quit crying bitch.


Looks like we found one of eotl's aliases.


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 7, 2021)

More on masks.....this one for no impact on the macro level from mask mandates.









						Analysis of the Effects of COVID-19 Mask Mandates on Hospital Resource Consumption and Mortality at the County Level
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) threatens vulnerable patient populations, resulting in immense pressures at the local, regional, national, and international levels to contain the virus. Laboratory-based studies demonstrate that masks may offer benefit ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


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## what-happened (Sep 7, 2021)

espola said:


> If I had children of school age, I would be teaching them how to deal with the issues, not just complain about them.


Not if you still had to go to work to support the people who could do what you say you would do.  You wouldn't be around to provide such sage advice.  And your school age children may not even have access to school.  Unfortunately, school age children in your state have missed plenty of school. 

I'm disappointed that you whiffed this one by so much.


----------



## what-happened (Sep 7, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Bitches bitch and whiners whine. Realist adapt and overcome. You can make lemonade or you can rub the lemons in your eyes your choice.


Are you cheerleading now?  Take your lemonade stand down to the neighborhoods where you can make an impact.  You sound like a charitable person who would give up their time/money to care for those less able to care for themselves.


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## watfly (Sep 7, 2021)

Chelsea dad g09 said:


> Looks like we found one of eotl's aliases.


In defense of EOTL, he/she was generally more articulate, although also incredibly misguided.


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 7, 2021)

New Details Emerge About Coronavirus Research at Chinese Lab
					

More than 900 pages of materials related to U.S.-funded coronavirus research in China were released following a FOIA lawsuit by The Intercept.




					theintercept.com


----------



## espola (Sep 7, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> New Details Emerge About Coronavirus Research at Chinese Lab
> 
> 
> More than 900 pages of materials related to U.S.-funded coronavirus research in China were released following a FOIA lawsuit by The Intercept.
> ...


Anything good in there?


----------



## espola (Sep 7, 2021)

This woman actually posted this full-bingo-card rant on her own Instagram account --


__
		http://instagr.am/p/CTdhQEFHAlP/


----------



## crush (Sep 8, 2021)

Hüsker Dü said:


> Quit crying bitch.


You got problems


----------



## crush (Sep 8, 2021)

*"What Storm Mr. President?"*


----------



## N00B (Sep 13, 2021)

Who’s crediting policy for Covid outcomes instead of the above?


----------



## Grace T. (Sep 13, 2021)

Australia keeps going higher despite their measures.  Seasonality still anywhere between a few weeks- two months before it kicks in to help.









						Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




New Zealand hasn't been able to quash it fully but it's not accelerating









						New Zealand COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

New Zealand Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




Israel still looks like this despite masks and vaccination









						Israel COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Israel Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




Here's where the UK is at with their approach (deaths still on the floor...points to there may have been something to waiting for the second dose)









						United Kingdom COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




Norway is still doing this.....








						Norway COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Norway Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




While Sweden is doing this.....









						Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## N00B (Sep 14, 2021)

Oh my…





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Sep 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Australia keeps going higher despite their measures.  Seasonality still anywhere between a few weeks- two months before it kicks in to help.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


ACTIVE CASES
39,654

Currently Infected Patients
39,529 (*99.7*%)
*in Mild Condition*

125 (*0.3*%)
Serious or Critical

Imagine that.


----------



## Bruddah IZ (Sep 14, 2021)

Grace T. said:


> Australia keeps going higher despite their measures.  Seasonality still anywhere between a few weeks- two months before it kicks in to help.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Desert Hound (Sep 18, 2021)

You know what would help?

Stronger policies
Border wall.

And before you go well people can get over the wall. That is true. The idea however is to stop the unrestricted flow like you are seeing here and in other reports.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1439245698768285711


----------



## what-happened (Sep 18, 2021)

Desert Hound said:


> You know what would help?
> 
> Stronger policies
> Border wall.
> ...


Don't worry, the adults are in charge..this will be solved in no time.


----------



## crush (Sep 19, 2021)




----------



## watfly (Sep 24, 2021)

Not too far from the truth.


----------



## watfly (Oct 13, 2021)

Walgreens closing 5 more San Francisco stores due to organized shoplifting
					

Last year, Walgreens closed one store in the city where the chain said it was losing $1,000 a day to thefts.



					www.usatoday.com


----------



## kickingandscreaming (Oct 13, 2021)

watfly said:


> Walgreens closing 5 more San Francisco stores due to organized shoplifting
> 
> 
> Last year, Walgreens closed one store in the city where the chain said it was losing $1,000 a day to thefts.
> ...


It's difficult to predict where this all settles but for all of SF's bold proclamations regarding inclusion, they aren't making life any easier for minorities (see post below from 15 months ago). Maybe the increase in crime drives down property values and makes things more affordable. Other than that, it's hard to see a silver lining to what's happening there.









						The Cost of California's Woke Culture | City Journal
					

Leaders offer platitudes and counterproductive policies rather than opportunities and better living standards for the state’s minorities.




					www.city-journal.org


----------



## crush (Oct 16, 2021)




----------



## crush (Oct 16, 2021)




----------



## crush (Oct 20, 2021)




----------



## crush (Oct 20, 2021)




----------



## N00B (Oct 20, 2021)

I think this is the thread that this would be relevant to:



			Redirect Notice


----------



## crush (Oct 23, 2021)

RIP "The Catch."  After 45 years of killer food, owner is closing all because........

*Anaheim’s The Catch, a popular restaurant by Angel Stadium, closes after 45 years*


----------



## crush (Oct 28, 2021)

*"This was the most difficult decision I've ever had to make in my life. There were a lot of sleepless nights. There were a lot of tears shed leading up to making this decision, but ultimately I had to do what was best for my health individually."*


----------



## Hüsker Dü (Jan 6, 2022)

"We have a lot of people who come every single day to get tested because they're curious, and that’s clogging a little bit of the line, so we’re working to both increase and kind of right-size demand a little bit," Fletcher said.


----------

