# Least Improved - LA 06/u14 so far... (as fo 1/17/20)



## Kante (Jan 17, 2020)

Here's the least improved LA 2006 teams so far this year... (Am doing this a little differently due to some constraints w/ the new bbs platform and there will be a separate thread w/ the most improved LA 06 teams here - https://www.socalsoccer.com/threads/most-improved-teams-la-06-u14-so-far-as-of-1-16-20.18443/)

*Here's the background (skip down if you've read this already):*
Usually, families and coaches will have some intuitive sense of how things are trending but it's hard to be concrete. The goal of this (long) post is to provide some objective data for evaluating DA coach performance/team development so far this season.

If you’re interested in more info about the methodology for comparing please, one of the other threads on most improved/least improved.
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*Least Improved LA Team #1: Total Futbol Academy*
TFA is the least improved LA group 06/u14 team so far this year.  But, looking at the data provides a pretty interesting picture of what's going, and, to borrow from typical online clickbait, it's not what you think...

For reference/comparison, LAFC 05s had a similar decline going on last year, where they start crazy strong and then faded over time. Some times, these top teams are putting overall player development ahead of getting the very best results, some times teams are working on accomplishing certain things during matches (eg, playing out of the back, maintaining possession, switching point of attack), some times there's a real decline going on, some times it's both. 

Also the very best teams tend to be a full step - or several steps - above most of the other teams in their group (which is saying something since it's SoCal), and the players some times can become a little disinterested/lackadaisical. Have seen this w/ LAFC teams at times (not picking on LAFC, they've just been at the top across age groups for a while, so they're the example).

On the flip side, as the season goes on, opposing teams also start to acclimate, and some of the top teams'  - TFA or LAFC - shock and awe becomes less shocky and awe-y. Some coaches even will start playing these top teams a little cynically, using bunkering tactics to keep scores more reasonable. (have some ambivalence about this...)

However, with TFA this year, they've pointedly been playing some of their top 06 players up with their 05 team, at a rate that's significantly higher than other teams historically. Some of this is to help drive 06 player development and some of it is that the TFA 05s need some help. (no issue at all w/ making a virtue of necessity....)

Drilling into the numbers, TFA has almost had two separate seasons to date. 

Looking at the offense, from the beginning of the season thru the first five games ending w/ the 9-1 win against LA Surf at the end of September, TFA scored an average of 7.4 goals per match. In the six matches from the beginning of October thru the end of November, TFA scored an average of 3.5 goals per game.

And looking at the defense, again from the beginning of the season thru the first five games, TFA allowed an average of 1.8 goals per match. In the six matches from the beginning of October thru the end of November, TFA scored an average of .33 goals per game.

So what's going on?

Running the numbers, starting in October, TFA shifted to focus on defense and this accounted for about 25% of the decline in TFA's offensive numbers. 

Second, as mentioned earlier, TFA has been playing 06 players up with a fair amount of consistency. Specifically, thru eom September, per game reports, TFA 06 players missed 06 matches because they were rostered w/ the 05 team in 11 instances over four matches (counted as one player rostered w/ 05s in one match counts as one instance). while the total number of missing players accounted for about 15% of the decline. 

Again, running the numbers (i.e. regression), about 12% of TFA's offensive decline is due to the total number of 06 players missing for any particular match but, more interesting, about 60% of the offensive decline is attributable to the specific players who were playing up w/ the 05s. 

For example, TFA's #4/AM has played up w/ the 05s in four matches, and missing him accounted for close to 20% of TFA's 06 offensive decline. Another example is #5/EC, who has played up w/ the 05s in five matches. Missing #5 from the TFA 06 game day roster also accounted for about 20% of the 06 offensive decline, even though he's listed by TFA as a defender.  And the remaining 20% of offensive performance variation is attributable pretty evenly across the rest of the players who played up.

So, kudos to TFA for sacrificing on results to push development. Am not in the TFA circle of trust and don't want to go over board with this since there's lmited info available, but it looks like, with the 06s, TFA is doing everything they're supposed to be doing re: driving best in class player development, even though they're sacrificing a bit on the results side to get there.

Here's TFA's goal differential % over time

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Here's TFA's goals scored as a % of their opponent's average goals allowed per game:

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Here's TFA's goals allowed as a % of their opponent's average goals scored per game:



*Least Improved LA Team #2: Real SoCal*
Real SoCal is the #2 least improved team in the LA group. But again, drilling into the numbers tells a slightly different, more interesting story.

At the beginning of the season, it looked like RSC might make a run at the LA group's top tier. An RSC alumni who had put in a strong performance for LAFC in 2018-19 returned to the fold for 2019-20 and with a 19 player roster there would presumably would be good competition for game minutes to drive practice intensity.

And, RSC started decent with solid results over Santa Barbara and LA Surf, but there's been steady overall decline over time since, with the late November match against LAUFA being their worst performance to date.

Offensively, only seven of 19 RSC players have scored this year, and RSC has big dependency on the former LAFC player, #36/TR who has scored more than 50% of RSC's goals. However, offensive level - while not great overall - has only been trending slightly down over time, and Real SoCal deserves credit for scoring two early goals in LAFC (only TFA has done better offensively against LAFC so far).

Defensively speaking, RSC has had some significant lapses in focus/discipline. The trend line is not great but the poor trend is also mostly a function of two matches - the 2-8 loss to LAFC and the 3-4 loss to LAUFA. Removing those matches, the defensive level is a different story, with a much better overall level and some reasonable improvement over time.

So net net, it looks like Real SoCal needs to find some more options on the offensive/goal scoring side, and needs to work on maintaining focus/discipline on the defensive side. 

Here's Real SoCal Goal Differential % over time:


Here's RSC's goals scored as a % of their opponent's average goals allowed per game:



Here's RSC's goals allowed as a % of their opponent's average goals scored per game:


*Least Improved LA Team #3: LAFC*
LAFC is the #3 least improved team in the LA group. However, applying the same lense used in looking at TFA, there are some interesting comparisons.

Looking at TFA playing 06 players up with the 05 team, per game reports, TFA had 21 instances where they rostered 06 players with the 05 team across 6 matches that overlapped with 06 matches (i.e. the 06 players weren't able to play w/ the 06s). 

In contrast, LAFC, not counting the 06 who is rostered w/ the 05s, has 11 instances across 11 matches where a rostered 06 has played up with the 05s, but all of that is LAFC playing one - #18/JR - up with the 05s. And because LAFC has only played one player up this year and he appears to have only played in one LAG group - vs RSC - there's not enough data to ID the individual player contribution.

Offensively, the LAFC trend line is not great, with a steady downward trend over time, and LAFC has had 10 players score but two players account for more than 50% of their goals. 

But, if you take out the 3-4 loss in LAFC's first match of the year against TFA and the comeback 8-2 win against RSC,  LAFC's trend line shows a reasonable improvement over time. However, without those two matches, LAFC's average goals scored as % of opponent's average goals allowed is a fairly pedestrian +7%. (That is, on average, excepting the TFA and RSC matches, LAFC will score 7% more goals than their opponent, on average, typically allows.)

Defensively, LAFC is also trending the wrong way, although they do have three shutouts so far this year. 

Similar to TFA, better defensive performance accounts for about 30% of the decline in offensive performance. That is, when LAFC is focused on good defense their offense tends to suffer the same way that TFA's offense suffered when TFA started to focus  on D. 

However, LAFC focusing on D seems to be more game by game rather than a sharp shift that happened at a defined point in the season.

Here's LAFC's Goal Differential % over time:


Here's LAFC's goals scored as a % of their opponent's average goals allowed per game:


Here's LAFC's goals allowed as a % of their opponent's average goals scored per game:


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