Stat Analysis: Most Girls DA Clubs without Prior ECNL Experience Struggling

Discussion in 'Girls Development Academy' started by SocalPapa, Dec 15, 2017.

  1. SocalPapa

    SocalPapa

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    DA clubs generally fall into one of three categories:

    1) Dual DA/ECNL (14 clubs): clubs that kept their ECNL program even though they joined girls DA (tended to have a history of success in ECNL)

    2) DA Only (38 clubs): clubs that weren’t in ECNL but believed they could still put together teams that would be competitive in an elite national league.

    3) Left ECNL (17 clubs): clubs that disbanded their ECNL programs when they joined DA (generally had less prior success in ECNL than the dual clubs)

    I wanted to see how these three types of clubs have been doing in DA relative to each other, so I downloaded all the game results to date from the DA website and ran some pivot tables.

    The results show a distinct hierarchy:

    - Dual clubs are generally the best
    - Clubs that left ECNL are okay
    - The majority of DA-only club teams have struggled

    Here's some of what I saw:*

    1) OVERALL RECORD (W-L-T / Win-Loss Ratio):
    win loss ratio = wins divided by losses

    Dual Clubs
    vs DA Only Opponent (224-92-57 / 2.43)
    vs Left ECNL Opponent (133-33-28 / 4.03)

    DA Only
    vs Dual Club Opponent (92-224-57 / 0.47)
    vs Left ECNL Opponent (164-257-84 / 0.64)

    Left ECNL
    vs Dual Club Opponent (33-133-28 / 0.25)
    vs DA Only Opponent (277-164-84 / 1.57)

    2) Total Goal Differential

    Dual Clubs +1038
    U-14 +214
    U-15 +295
    U-16/17 +176
    U-18/19 +353

    DA Only -1042
    U-14 -235
    U-15 -299
    U-16/17 -159
    U-18/19 -349

    Left ECNL +4
    U-14 +21
    U-15 +4
    U-16/17 -17
    U-18/19 -4

    3) Goal Differential Per Game


    Dual Clubs vs DA Only Opponent
    U-14 +1.71
    U-15 +1.85
    U-16/17 +1.09
    U-18/19 +2.61
    Total +1.41

    Dual Clubs vs Left ECNL Opponent
    U-14 +1.93
    U-15 +2.24
    U-16/17 +1.32
    U-18/19 +2.02
    Total +1.88

    DA Only vs Dual Club Opponent
    U-14 -1.71
    U-15 -1.85
    U-16/17 -1.09
    U-18/19 -2.61
    Total -1.41

    DA Only vs Left ECNL Opponent
    U-14 -0.99
    U-15 -0.88
    U-16/17 -0.37
    U-18/19 -0.73
    Total -0.73

    Left ECNL vs Dual Club Opponent
    U-14 -1.93
    U-15 -2.24
    U-16/17 -1.32
    U-18/19 -2.02
    Total -1.88

    Left ECNL vs DA Only Opponent
    U-14 0.99
    U-15 0.88
    U-16/17 0.37
    U-18/19 0.73
    Total 0.73

    4) Failed to Score (Percent of Games)

    Dual Clubs
    vs Other Dual (25%)
    vs DA only (15%)
    vs Left ECNL (14%)

    DA Only
    vs Dual (41%)
    vs Other DA Only (27%)
    vs Left ECNL (32%)

    Left ECNL
    vs Dual (45%)
    vs DA Only (24%)
    vs Other Left ECNL (27%)

    And to get a sense of which specific clubs are contributing most to the above results, here is the per game average goal differential for each DA club.

    GD Rank...Club...Avg Goal Differential

    Dual 1.41
    1 NTH Tophat 3.63
    2 Crossfire Premier 2.51
    4 FC Dallas 2.04
    6 Real Colorado 1.93
    7 Solar Soccer Club 1.87
    10 LAFC Slammers 1.62
    11 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1.60
    12 So Cal Blues Soccer Club 1.49
    13 Michigan Hawks 1.44
    14 Concorde Fire 1.40
    19 San Diego Surf 1.12
    33 West Coast Futbol Club 0.40

    38 FC Stars (0.16)
    47 Dallas Texans (0.56)

    DA Only (0.28)

    5 Sky Blue - PDA 1.95 [arguably a dual club]
    8 Legends FC 1.83
    9 New York City FC 1.69 [arguably a dual club]
    15 FC Fury NY 1.37 [arguably a dual club]
    16 NC Courage 1.20
    18 Beach Futbol Club 1.18
    21 La Roca Futbol Club 1.07
    22 Midwest United FC 1.00
    24 Cincinnati Development Academy 0.79
    25 Placer United SC 0.73
    26 Lonestar SC Academy 0.72
    28 Lamorinda Soccer Club 0.67
    29 LA Galaxy San Diego 0.61
    31 Nationals 0.55
    32 San Jose Earthquakes 0.51
    36 Oakwood Soccer Club 0.20
    37 Orlando Pride 0.14
    42 Portland Thorns FC (0.34)
    43 United Futbol Academy (0.38)
    44 LA Galaxy (0.43)
    46 FC United Soccer Club (0.48)
    49 Los Angeles Premier Futbol Club (0.68)
    52 Virginia Development Academy (0.98)
    53 Sky Blue - NYSC (1.00)
    54 Pateadores (1.04)
    55 Cedar Stars Academy - Monmouth (1.18)
    56 Washington Spirit Academy - Virginia (1.20)
    57 Albion SC (1.32)
    58 United Soccer Alliance (1.33)
    59 Washington Spirit Academy - Baltimore Armour (1.60)
    61 PA Classics (1.84)
    62 Shattuck - Saint Mary's (2.40)
    64 PSV Union Football Club (2.75)
    65 IMG Academy (3.08)
    66 Long Island SC (3.15)
    67 Empire United (3.48)
    68 FC Kansas City (3.80)
    69 Burlingame Soccer Club (5.73)

    Left ECNL 0.00
    3 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 2.13
    17 FC Virginia 1.20
    20 Boston Breakers Academy 1.08
    23 Charlotte Soccer Academy 0.98
    27 SPORTING Blue Valley 0.71
    30 Real So Cal 0.56
    34 SC del Sol 0.37
    35 Reign Academy 0.34
    39 California Thorns FC (0.16)
    40 Colorado Rush (0.29)
    41 Weston FC (0.33)
    45 Indiana Fire Academy (0.47)
    48 Sockers FC (0.65)
    50 Eagles Soccer Club (0.87)
    51 Houston Dash (0.95)
    60 Boca United Football Club (1.76)
    63 West Florida Flames (2.51)

    These stats seem to confirm that slapping a DA logo on a uniform doesn’t magically make a club any better. The more successful clubs going in have pretty much remained so.

    I should point out that a couple So Cal clubs that had not participated in ECNL (Legends and Beach) are off to a great start in DA. However others (Albion and Pats) are farther behind. And nationally there's some REALLY bad clubs out there (five are losing by more than 3 goals a game on average; Burlingame by almost 6).

    *Results through 12/16/17 games. The above stats were corrected on 12/21/17 to remove placeholder/dummy game results that had been included in the data table DA published online.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2017
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  2. espola

    espola Silver Elite

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    If the intent of DA clubs/teams is player development, then W-L-T records are not the appropriate measurement.
     
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  3. SocalPapa

    SocalPapa

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    And here's the records of the So Cal DA teams (W-L-T) to date:*

    Albion SC
    U-14 3-5-3
    U-15 5-5-4
    U-16/17 3-11
    U-18/19 2-10-2
    Total 13-31-9

    Beach Futbol Club 125
    U-14 8-2-2
    U-15 10-1-4
    U-16/17 7-6-2
    U-18/19 10-4-1
    Total 35-13-9

    Eagles Soccer Club
    U-14 1-5-5
    U-15 4-10-0
    U-16/17 5-7-2
    U-18/19 4-6-4
    Total 14-28-11

    LA Galaxy
    U-14 4-3-3
    U-15 5-8-0
    U-16/17 4-6-3
    U-18/19 3-7-3
    Total 16-24-9

    LA Galaxy San Diego
    U-14 7-2-4
    U-15 9-2-5
    U-16/17 8-3-5
    U-18/19 5-6-5
    Total 29-13-19

    LAFC Slammers
    U-14 4-6-1
    U-15 6-6-6
    U-16/17 11-2-1
    U-18/19 11-2-1
    Total 32-16-5

    Legends FC
    U-14 9-2-2
    U-15 11-1-4
    U-16/17 10-3-2
    U-18/19 9-3-3
    Total 39-9-11

    Los Angeles Premier Futbol Club
    U-14 2-9-2
    U-15 4-9-3
    U-16/17 7-5-3
    U-18/19 4-9-2
    Total 17-32-10

    Pateadores
    U-14 1-9-2
    U-15 6-6-3
    U-16/17 3-11-1
    U-18/19 5-6-4
    Total 15-32-10

    Real So Cal

    U-14 6-4-2
    U-15 6-8-1
    U-16/17 8-4-3
    U-18/19 8-5-2
    Total 28-21-8

    San Diego Surf
    U-14 7-3
    U-15 7-3-3
    U-16/17 6-3-4
    U-18/19 9-3-1
    Total 29-9-11

    So Cal Blues Soccer Club
    U-14 2-6-4
    U-15 11-3-1
    U-16/17 8-6-1
    U-18/19 12-1-2
    Total 33-16-8

    West Coast Futbol Club
    U-14 5-4-3
    U-15 7-6-2
    U-16/17 6-6-3
    U-18/19 7-7-1
    Total 25-23-9

    *Results are through 12-16-17. Corrections made to the above on 12/21 similar to those made to the OP.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2017
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  4. SocalPapa

    SocalPapa

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    While DA says their program "isn't necessarily" about wins and losses, they've also said that they recognize "competing is an important part of development." DA publishes the standings and determines opportunities for teams and players to advance in the playoffs based on those wins and losses. Further, it's important for development that players are able to practice with and compete against like-talented players. The results of the games (W-L and goal differential) are a good indication as to the variances that exist between teams in the girls DA program. These aren't small variances.
     
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  5. espola

    espola Silver Elite

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    When the boys DA program started, they showed how to "develop" players -- recruit the best players around. Development was just a n atrractive word. I don't think things have changed much.
     
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  6. Simisoccerfan

    Simisoccerfan Bronze

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    I went to Florida and since I did not have much to do I watched a bunch of games besides those of my daughter. I can tell you that I have watched a lot of youth soccer over the past decade I have never seen the such a collection of talented teams and players. There is always going to be a top and a bottom of any league but in my opinion the bottom of DA is still significantly better than Flight 1, Premier or DPL.
     
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  7. Mystery Train

    Mystery Train Silver

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    That should be the case. DA is a rival of ECNL, not the others. What, if any, differences did you notice between the DA teams from other regions of the country vs. SoCal DA teams? Style of play/skill level/depth, etc.
     
  8. Simisoccerfan

    Simisoccerfan Bronze

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    I don't know that I saw really differences that were the result of teams being in different regions of the country. We already have different styles of play within SoCal and it was similar at this event. I did notice a lot less parents on the sidelines for the SoCal teams which was likely a function that we had to travel farther. Couple this with the time zone change and there had to a benefit to be a Eastern Time Zone team that travelled with a lot of parent support. Skill level and depth was similar but there are a lot more DA teams in SoCal than in other regions. To me this means we have a greater concentration of talent here.
     
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  9. Lambchop

    Lambchop Bronze

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    Teams were matched based on where the placed in their league for the most part. A lower place team played a lower placed team from a different conference. The top teams played against each other. In addition, certain conferences are stronger than others. So a win against a lower place team actually raised their placement in their home league and conversely a loss to a top team lowered their placement in their home league. The schedule was very interesting.
     
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  10. smellycleats

    smellycleats Bronze

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    Very comprehensive analysis. Impressive. Just a sidenote to the description of your categories- The clubs in category 3 did not disband their ECNL programs. They applied for ECNL and were denied.
     
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  11. LadiesMan217

    LadiesMan217 Silver

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    Depends on how you measure success. I can see what your measurement is based on your post and that is what most people want. My DD has played/plays for the 'successful' clubs and yes she won lots of games and played in national championships. A lot of natural talent went to the club (or was recruited in) - it is all about winning and my DD loves playing with the best teammates. My DD, beyond her raw talent for the game, developed by playing with these other talented players - the clubs did little for her development other than give her the platform.

    Now on to your comment slapping DA logo doesn't make a club any better. IMO, the two best developing clubs in SW are LAG and Pats. They have thrown a great set of coaches together, have trainers/PT/GPS, nutrition coaches, (LAG even 'mental' trainers working with girls), and funded the program. Both those clubs are much better than they were last year and of course there was no magic involved. Now, in the older age groups they did not start off with 2 existing ECNL teams and took the best players to form a 'successful' team like LAFC Slammers; so, of course they are not going to be a 'successful' club in the first couple of seasons. I know my DD did not want to join either club because they were not 'good' and I know a few others on my DD club that looked and had the same feeling and stayed put.

    Nothing will change - it is all about money and wins to keep the paying parents coming... No need to spend your time doing what you did - all it does is continue to foster and fuel the problem.
     
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  12. nosubs

    nosubs Bronze

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    How are the records that you posted possible, most of these teams have only played 16 games if that?
    Here are the records for the U15 southwest division
    Southwest - U-15 West
    Team Games Wins Losses Ties Pts GF GA
    Legends FC U-15 16 11 1 4 37 49 17
    So Cal Blues Soccer Club U-15 15 11 3 1 34 51 15
    Beach Futbol Club U-15 15 10 1 4 34 34 15
    LA Galaxy San Diego U-15 16 9 2 5 32 37 22
    SC del Sol U-15 15 8 6 1 25 38 32
    San Diego Surf U-15 13 7 3 3 24 26 14
    West Coast Futbol Club U-15 15 7 6 2 23 26 19
    LAFC Slammers U-15 14 6 6 2 20 19 20
    Pateadores U-15 14 6 6 2 20 17 21
    Albion SC U-15 14 5 5 4 19 24 25
    Real So Cal U-15 15 6 8 1 19 17 22
    LA Galaxy U-15 13 5 8 0 15 22 20
    Los Angeles Premier Futbol Club U-15 16 4 9 3 15 23 38
    Eagles Soccer Club U-15 14 4 10 0 12 21 45
    Most of these teams have only played up to 16 games including the showcase. I think your numbers are inflated unless your including records from tournaments or futsal or something.
     
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  13. Lvdepech

    Lvdepech Bronze

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    Nationwide
     
  14. jose

    jose Bronze

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    It is the first year. The DA teams without ECNL team experience are more than likely new teams. Or they are tier 2 teams or players that formed that team. (with exceptions of course) One year is way to small a sample size. Five years after the movement and the dust has settled would give us a better look to see where things are so i'll hold off judgement until then
     
  15. Josep

    Josep Bronze

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    Here’s the other thing. The schedules are imbalanced. Some clubs have had easier/harder schedule than others. Showcase showed some of that too. Will probably see a little more clarity when the season is over.

    One other thing about DA - it’s the first year and you can bet you had some cling on to ecnl or not play DA because of FOMO it high school.

    It might take another year or two for it to fully congeal.
     
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  16. Round

    Round Bronze

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    A lot of statistics, but doesn't necessarily mean what you are trying to conclude. Give it a couple of years, it will even out and suck a little more.

    At least as far as San Diego goes, it's working out as would be expected. Albion has never been a good ppl lace for girls, why would that have changed?
     
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  17. Sunil Illuminati

    Sunil Illuminati Bronze

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    Why do you think these are the two best developing clubs? Aren't a high percentage of their players brought in from other organizations? curios why that qualifies them as being developing clubs?
     
  18. DT32

    DT32 Bronze

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    A few notes from the east coast:

    The 'DA Only' clubs are probably worse as the top 3 are really dual clubs. NYCFC is really World Class, Fury NY is Albertson, and Sky Blue - PDA, is obviously PDA.

    There were some 'clever' distinctions put in place so the clubs could keep ECNL. World Class and NYCFC are two different organizations now, but the players are from WC. Fury was a made up organization; not really sure how that got through, and PDA can field two high quality teams and maintain the distinction with the Sky Blue partnership.
     
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  19. tugs

    tugs Bronze

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    If the intent of DA itself is "player development" their FIFA substitution rules should be changed...
     
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  20. Josep

    Josep Bronze

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    Imagine those poor 06s with their playing time next year. Kids that age shouldn’t be so limited.
     
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