Supermodel56
SILVER ELITE
Nice. What would Top10/20 look like if only including start of league season and beyond (basically excluding preseason tournaments)?
G08 State Cup President's Bracket
- Thread starter Carlsbad10
- Start date
Not incredibly different. Only taking into account league/post-season tournaments:
Supermodel56
SILVER ELITE
In this view, what stands out in the Top 10 W/L is that Arsenal FC LA has a much different record and Legends FC West probably belongs in the top 6 in their place. There's a huge drop off after #6 Surf EGSL. I feel like wins is a more accurate predictor....
The Legends got a nice 1-0 win against Surf early in league and have a win against #10 LAGSB, but lost to Arsenal in the Thanksgiving Cup 4-2, as well as Strikers and CDA Slammers 3 times. Subjectively I have not seen them play but have seen Arsenal play Blues to a very good game in Las Vegas, and play Strikers to a tie in Surf Thanksgiving, I was very impressed. They were hurt by playing in SCDSL Flight 2, but are a very good and dangerous team and deserving a high rank.
TangoCity
GOLD
Carlsbad10 is doing some great stuff with this data. What I was able to do with the G04 data set was come up with a win/loss/tie probability equation for each game based on the difference in the SRS of the two teams playing. Would be interesting to see if the equation for the G04 matched closely with this age group.
Here are the numbers I got using actual data.
Predicted Win Differential Range / Favorite Win % / Underdog Win % / Tie %
0 to 0.75 / 46.6% / 27.3% / 26.1%
0.75 to 1.5 / 63.4% / 15.3% / 21.2%
1.5 to 2.25 / 77.5% / 7.4% / 15.1%
2.25 to 3.0 / 84.1% / 6.2% / 9.7%
3.0 to 3.75 / 91.1% / 2.6% / 6.3%
3.75 to 4.5 / 95.6% / 1.3% / 3.1%
4.5 + / 98.8% / 0.8% / 0.4%
Here are the numbers I got using actual data.
Predicted Win Differential Range / Favorite Win % / Underdog Win % / Tie %
0 to 0.75 / 46.6% / 27.3% / 26.1%
0.75 to 1.5 / 63.4% / 15.3% / 21.2%
1.5 to 2.25 / 77.5% / 7.4% / 15.1%
2.25 to 3.0 / 84.1% / 6.2% / 9.7%
3.0 to 3.75 / 91.1% / 2.6% / 6.3%
3.75 to 4.5 / 95.6% / 1.3% / 3.1%
4.5 + / 98.8% / 0.8% / 0.4%
Livinglavidafutbol
BRONZE
SCDSL totally dominating this division. Congratulations to all the teams. PREDICTIONS???
Quarter Final - Sunday, February 05, 2017
Game Venue Time Field Home Team Score Away Team Score
596903 Silverlakes Complex 12:30 PM E26A Albion SC G08 Academy vs. Arsenal FC LA G08
596904 Silverlakes Complex 12:30 PM E26B LAGSD G08 Premier-Green vs. CDA Slammers FC - Cerritos G08 Cruz EGSL
596906 Silverlakes Complex 02:00 PM E26B Strikers FC-OC EGSL 2008 vs. So Cal Blues - 2008 Rennie - Mulligan
596905 Silverlakes Complex 02:00 PM E26A LAGSB 2008 Elite vs. Fullerton Rangers G08 White
Quarter Final - Sunday, February 05, 2017
Game Venue Time Field Home Team Score Away Team Score
596903 Silverlakes Complex 12:30 PM E26A Albion SC G08 Academy vs. Arsenal FC LA G08
596904 Silverlakes Complex 12:30 PM E26B LAGSD G08 Premier-Green vs. CDA Slammers FC - Cerritos G08 Cruz EGSL
596906 Silverlakes Complex 02:00 PM E26B Strikers FC-OC EGSL 2008 vs. So Cal Blues - 2008 Rennie - Mulligan
596905 Silverlakes Complex 02:00 PM E26A LAGSB 2008 Elite vs. Fullerton Rangers G08 White
Interesting to see the similar range for the G08 data:
Predicted Win Differential Range / Favorite Win % / Underdog Win % / Tie %
0 to 0.75 / 43% / 42% / 16%
0.75 to 1.5 / 66% / 17% / 17%
1.5 to 2.25 / 78% / 15% / 7%
2.25 to 3.00 / 83% / 7% / 10%
3.00 to 3.75 / 83% / 8% / 8%
3.75 to 4.5 / 91% / 3% / 6%
4.5 + / 96% / 2% / 2%
It is true that SCDSL had the most number of teams in field with 11 of the 18 teams but I would disagree based on the percentage of teams moving to the quarterfinals that they totally dominated.
SCDSL: 5/11, 45%
SDDA: 2/4, 50%
Coast: 1/3, 33%
Arsenal over albion
LAGSD over CDA
Strikers over Blues
Fullerton over Southbay Galaxy (close one)
Supermodel56
SILVER ELITE
Arsenal over Albion
CDA over LAGSD
Strikers over Blues
Fullerton over LAGSB
CDA over LAGSD
Strikers over Blues
Fullerton over LAGSB
CopaMundial
SILVER ELITE
Nice of CalSouth to rearrange teams in the quarter finals bracket and pit Strikers and Blues against each other vs. what the ACTUAL outcome was from play in rounds. They said they did it because they didn't want two teams to play each other in playins and again in quarters. Because....In their exact words..."It makes the tournament better."
BWAHAHAHA!!! For who? So they just make the rules as they go. Typical CalSouth. Oh, and to add insult to injury, the '07 age group had a similar scenario, but they are allowing teams to replay same teams. WTF?? Way to be consistent. If teams or clubs didn't stick by the rules, CalSouth would take action. Disappointed in their actions and especially the dictator attitude. Shame on CalSouth.
Supermodel56
SILVER ELITE
Tournament Directors did the same thing at Thanksgiving Surf Cup to rearrange so you wouldn't play the same team from your group, so it's fairly common... That said, knowing Blues coach, I wouldn't be surprised if they intentionally threw game to get a better draw... They had no business losing to LAGSB - if that's the case, IMHO serves them right! LOL.
That said, I think the bracket draws were ridiculous... Why would they put all three top San Diego teams all in the same bracket?!? And two of those teams were in the same league - having played each other throughout the regular league season - again #1 & #2 - beyond lame.
The same scenario exist in the 2007 age group. Blues 07's will play Beach Kaufman 07/s in the round of 16 even though Blues already beat Beach 3-0 in Bracket play. Not quite sure how you can pick and choose when to apply the rules??
CopaMundial
SILVER ELITE
Fine, if it's common, then do it across the board, not just one age group. Who are they to decide and be judge and jury. Why have rules then??
And second, unless you saw the matchup between LAGSB and Blues, you need to shut your trap. Give LAGSB some credit, because they are a good side. Blues was up 2-0 at the half and had a PK called against and two very questionable fouls outside the box that LAGSB capitalized on. Our girls fought very, very hard and would never throw a game. My little one wanted a rematch as did all her little team mates. They went to bed thinking they were gonna get their chance and woke up to a whole new matchup.
Next time you make you're snide comments, remember these are 8 year old little girls and they give everything they have on that pitch. Whatever issues you have, just remember....it's not about you, it's about the kids.
Supermodel56
SILVER ELITE
Easy cowboy... I never said anything about the kiddos - great, tough players all around - and it was a compliment that you guys should not have lost that match... it's more commentary on the coach - no, I didn't see the match, but it's really easy to lose a game based on simple changes to rotations and lineups. Even you just said that you were up 2-0 at the half and only lost due to PK's and lame fouls. My bet was that for most of the game you guys controlled the ball then some subs gave up the PKs and fouls - not trying to knock LAGSB, but comon, they're 0-3-1 against top 10 teams since the start of league and 2-4-4 against the top 20.
Either way, at the end of the day - whether intentional or not, the loss was due to coaching, not talent.
CopaMundial
SILVER ELITE
Unlike some people, I don't make excuses. Questionable calls did not cause the loss. You face refs of all kinds and sometimes things just don't go your way. LAGSB capitalized when they should. End of story. Don't change my words into something you would write.
Supermodel56
SILVER ELITE
ooooOOOooo tough talker on the internet. look, sure whatever, if that makes you feel better.
Fact is, the Blues coach has never hesitated to run up the score on weaker teams as the parents cheer him on... you're 12-4-0 against top 20 teams (I don't think you've ever lost to a team below #5). You're already up 2-0 at the half, probably were in full control. so you tell me, did Rennie make lineup changes in the second half? who caused the PKs and fouls - starters or bench players? Kudos to LAGSB for capitalizing and good for them on the win, not all teams can, and I hope they take advantage and go far... but if any of the above answers are yes, Rennie lost this game - likely intentionally so you'd get to play a team you knew you could beat. back to my point - hehe, karma's a bitch.
anyhow, enough of this and just because you're a douchebag... GO STRIKERS!
Fact is, the Blues coach has never hesitated to run up the score on weaker teams as the parents cheer him on... you're 12-4-0 against top 20 teams (I don't think you've ever lost to a team below #5). You're already up 2-0 at the half, probably were in full control. so you tell me, did Rennie make lineup changes in the second half? who caused the PKs and fouls - starters or bench players? Kudos to LAGSB for capitalizing and good for them on the win, not all teams can, and I hope they take advantage and go far... but if any of the above answers are yes, Rennie lost this game - likely intentionally so you'd get to play a team you knew you could beat. back to my point - hehe, karma's a bitch.
anyhow, enough of this and just because you're a douchebag... GO STRIKERS!
CopaMundial
SILVER ELITE
Did Rennie piss in your cheerios? What's with the bitterness? We have two subs. Girls need rest. There's no strategy to lose, because don't you think a win would have benefitted us a little more, "douchebag". I would think finishing top in AB is better than WC1. Duh! Not rocket science.
Man...some people parents. Sheesh!
Wasn't at this particular game, so not sure what occurred. However, my daughter used to play for Rennie and feel I should defend him on at least one of your points; I can assure you that he does not run up the score on teams. Even against the weakest of teams, he makes the girls stop scoring, forcing them to pass instead. I have seen him pull a player and play a man down when she scored against his instructions when they were playing a weak team. By the way, I have also seen him tell his player to pass the ball to the goalie when he thought a penalty kick was called in his team's favor in error (in a State Cup game in which his team was only up 1-0). I have never seen him show anything but respect to the opponent and the game, especially at the younger age groups.
S
Sped
Guest
It's funny when parents of 3rd graders argue over soccer. Half of these girls won't even be playing in in 4 years.