The NCAA men's DI tournament involves 48 teams selected from the 205 schools playing men's soccer. Each of the 24 conferences gets an automatic entry, usually the regular season leader, or the winner of a post-season tournament, if they have one. The remaining slots are filled by a panel of experts who look mainly at RPI, with some minor adjustments down for really bad games (like losing at home to a low-ranked team) or upward for really good games (like winning on the road against a top-ranked team).
The teams selected are then seeded to establish home field advantage, usually fairly close to RPI order. In the first round the top 16 seeds get a bye, and the next 16 a home game. Sometimes the seedings are massaged a bit to cut down on first-round travel expenses.
Given all that, I am looking at Southern California teams, drawing the line at Bakersfield and Santa Barbara.
South to North, by conference --
WCC -- (no tournament)
USD - 8-3-2, tied for the lead in WCC, and RPI of 24 - a guaranteed spot in the tournament unless they falter in the final four games, all against WCC opponents.
LMU - 3-9-2, next to bottom of conference, RPI 163, 4 games remaining in conference - out.
Pac 12 -- (no tournament)
San Diego State - 5-9-0, bottom of Pac 12 and RPI of 155 - out of it.
UCLA - 6-6-1, 4th in Pac 12, RPI of 29. They have 5 conference games remaining and could conceivably win it, if the win all their games, Stanford loses all theirs, and all the other games end in ties. However, with their strong RPI position, they are probably in anyway, and with a home seed, as long as they maintain at least a .500 record.
Big West -- (6 of 8 teams qualify for post-season tournament, the winner of which gets the conference autobid)
UC Riverside - 2-12-1, bottom of Big West South Division, and RPI of 192. Out of it unless they can pull off a miracle and win the post-season tournament.
UC Irvine - 7-7-3, 3rd in BW South, RPI 119. Need to win the tournament.
Cal State Fullerton - 8-6-3, 2nd in BW South, RPI of 122. Need to win the tournament.
Cal State Northridge - 9-6-2, leading BW South, RPI 71. Need to win the tournament.
UCSB - 6-6-4, 2nd in BW North, RPI 91. Need to win the tournament.
WAC -- (7 of 11 teams qualify for post-season tournament)
Cal State Bakersfield -5-8-1, 4th in WAC, RPI 166. Need to win the tournament.
A reasonable possibility would be UCLA at USD in the first round.
The teams selected are then seeded to establish home field advantage, usually fairly close to RPI order. In the first round the top 16 seeds get a bye, and the next 16 a home game. Sometimes the seedings are massaged a bit to cut down on first-round travel expenses.
Given all that, I am looking at Southern California teams, drawing the line at Bakersfield and Santa Barbara.
South to North, by conference --
WCC -- (no tournament)
USD - 8-3-2, tied for the lead in WCC, and RPI of 24 - a guaranteed spot in the tournament unless they falter in the final four games, all against WCC opponents.
LMU - 3-9-2, next to bottom of conference, RPI 163, 4 games remaining in conference - out.
Pac 12 -- (no tournament)
San Diego State - 5-9-0, bottom of Pac 12 and RPI of 155 - out of it.
UCLA - 6-6-1, 4th in Pac 12, RPI of 29. They have 5 conference games remaining and could conceivably win it, if the win all their games, Stanford loses all theirs, and all the other games end in ties. However, with their strong RPI position, they are probably in anyway, and with a home seed, as long as they maintain at least a .500 record.
Big West -- (6 of 8 teams qualify for post-season tournament, the winner of which gets the conference autobid)
UC Riverside - 2-12-1, bottom of Big West South Division, and RPI of 192. Out of it unless they can pull off a miracle and win the post-season tournament.
UC Irvine - 7-7-3, 3rd in BW South, RPI 119. Need to win the tournament.
Cal State Fullerton - 8-6-3, 2nd in BW South, RPI of 122. Need to win the tournament.
Cal State Northridge - 9-6-2, leading BW South, RPI 71. Need to win the tournament.
UCSB - 6-6-4, 2nd in BW North, RPI 91. Need to win the tournament.
WAC -- (7 of 11 teams qualify for post-season tournament)
Cal State Bakersfield -5-8-1, 4th in WAC, RPI 166. Need to win the tournament.
A reasonable possibility would be UCLA at USD in the first round.