2004 Boys, games of the week, standings, etc.

here's predicts vs actuals (6/1 & 6/2). home team listed first.

predict: Barca 4 vs LAGSD 1 Actuals: Barca 2 vs LAGSD 2

predict: Albion 1 vs FCG 2 Actuals: Albion 0 vs FCG 1

predict: LAFC 3 vs Nomads 1 Actuals: LAFC 3 vs Nomads 0

predict: LAUFA 2 vs LAG 3 Actuals: LAUFA 1 vs LAG 2

predict: SD Surf 3 vs Pats 2 Actuals: SD Surf 5 vs Pats 1
note: seems like an intense match. per the game report, Pats scored first at the 11th minute but SD Surf tied it ten minutes later. Still tied 1-1 at half time. In the 2nd half, SD Surf came out more aggressive and looked like they took over the game going ahead 2-1 at the 53rd minute and then scoring three in the last ten minutes of the match. Pats had two yellow late in the match as well. Both SD Surf and the Pats played all of their 11 starters the full 80 minutes.

predict: Real SoCal 1 vs Strikers 4 Actuals: Real SoCal 3 vs Strikers 2
note: good win for RSC since their last match-up w/ the Strikers went 0-5 for the Strikers. RSC was down 1-2 until the last ten minutes when RSC scored twice for the win. EP for RSC went for a double - getting RSC's first goal at the 18th minute and their last goal at the 78th minute- plus a yellow at the 54th minute.

RSC was the most improved team on SoCal by far, being almost 3x better at the end of the season than they were at the beginning, with almost 30% of their overall team performance improvement on both sides of the ball being driven by improvement over time. The turning point in their season looks like it was the 0-5 loss to the Strikers in late January.

upload_2019-6-7_15-47-57.png


 
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Here’s the final improved/least improved list for the 2018-19 season thru all game results posted by USSDA as of 6/15/19. Per multiple requests for more information, am including a full list of all SoCal teams. Since there's a number of games where SoCal played Norcal/Northwest team, am also including the Norcal/Northwest teams in this list.

Am using a simple statistical calc – regression – to look at how each team performed relative their group peers this season over time. The calc generates two key numbers:

a) coefficient = the amount of goal differential % a team improves/decline by over time. For example, if a team gets 5% better each game on average, then, at the end of a 23 game season, that team would be 115% better in the last game of the season than they were in their first game of the season.

The coefficient number is good surrogate for how much team development occurred over the course of the season. However, there's some caveats (adding players, injuries to key players, suspensions etc) to this.

b) intercept = this is the starting point where the team was in terms of goal differential % before they played their first game.

This intercept number is a very good surrogate for the quality of the players put together by a team at the beginning of the season i.e. how good are a team’s players as a group before receiving coaching. For example, LAFC players stand out as being head and shoulders ahead of the other teams. Probably due to both the quality of their players and getting an early start to training in the summer.

Here’s the ranked list of teams by how much they improved - or didn't improve - in 2018-19:


upload_2019-6-19_9-54-3.png

Here's the improvement ranking as a chart:
upload_2019-6-19_9-59-31.png

Here’s the ranked list of teams for the player quality that each team started with at the beginning of the season.

upload_2019-6-19_10-4-27.png

Here's the player quality at the beginning of the season chart:
upload_2019-6-19_10-34-37.png
 
In the first round of the DA u15 play-offs, TDS' #1 team in the country - LAFC - just beat Philadelphia Union - the TDS #2 team in the country - 5-1. Philly had the size but LAFC had everything else. At times, it looked like LAFC just had more players on the field. here's link to the match:


Also, if you get a chance, can you take this poll asking what would be interesting/engaging for next year? gracias! http://www.socalsoccer.com/threads/...r-the-new-season-please-pick-the-top-3.17573/
 
In the first round of the DA u15 play-offs, TDS' #1 team in the country - LAFC - just beat Philadelphia Union - the TDS #2 team in the country - 5-1. Philly had the size but LAFC had everything else. At times, it looked like LAFC just had more players on the field. here's link to the match:


Also, if you get a chance, can you take this poll asking what would be interesting/engaging for next year? gracias! http://www.socalsoccer.com/threads/...r-the-new-season-please-pick-the-top-3.17573/
LAFC Defense and offense had their way with PU.
 
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