2006 DA

here's predicts vs actuals for this last weekend (6/1 & 6/2). home teams are listed first.

Los Angeles
predict: LAUFA 2 vs LA Galaxy 2 Actuals: LAUFA 0 vs LA Galaxy 5
note: seems like the new players LAG added are making a difference.
re: LAUFA - we've had some recent departures, including our top three scorers. Most recently we lost our top striker to TFA. A few 07's have been playing up. Will likely have several 07's this weekend in order to field a full team.
 
Golden state beat laufa 1-0 real physical game didn’t look like laufa played 07s. Both defenses were hard to crack but towards then end golden state broke through. Wondering if there will be an updated standing now that season is over.
 
Going be some some interesting changes at SDSurf...scrambling? ... Benoit to LAFC... looks like Cody out as well ..good luck to both of them great guys & coaches .. let's see what happens at Surf for this great 06 squad!
 
Here’s the final improved/least improved list for the 2018-19 season thru all game results posted by USSDA as of 6/15/19.

Per multiple requests for more information, am including a full list of all SoCal teams.

Am using a simple statistical calc – regression – to look at how each team performed relative their group peers this season over time. The calc generates two key numbers:

a) coefficient = the amount of goal differential % a team improves/decline by over time. For example, if a team gets 5% better each game on average, then, at the end of the u13 27 game season, that team would be 135% better in the last game of the season than they were in their first game of the season.

While there's some caveats, the coefficient number is good surrogate for how much team development occurred over the course of the season. (will take a look at the caveats in a later post)

b) intercept = this is the starting point where the team was in terms of goal differential % before they played their first game. For example, TFA had a 142% intercept which means that, the beginning of the season, TFA would have, on average, a 142% greater goal differential vs other teams, and effectively was about 3x better than LA Premier at the beginning of the season.

This intercept number is a very good surrogate for the quality of the players put together by a team at the beginning of the season i.e. how good are a team’s players as a group at the beginning of the season before receiving coaching.

Of note, the top four SoCal team are roughly equivalent, give or take, but then there is a big drop-off to the second tier of teams.

Here’s the ranked list of teams by how much they improved in 2018-19:

upload_2019-6-16_9-42-16.png

Here's the improvement ranking as a chart:
upload_2019-6-16_9-45-22.png

Here’s the ranked list of teams for the player quality that each team started with at the beginning of the season.

upload_2019-6-16_9-55-7.png

Here's the player quality at the beginning of the season chart:
upload_2019-6-16_9-58-22.png
 
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Here's predicts for this weekend. included last weekend's results but most of the data and trends are from last season, i.e. likely to be wrong but will be interesting to see which teams improved/decline relatively to how they did last year.

at first glance, it doesn't look like there has been the same kind of roster churn w/ the 06s that the 05s saw this season (~40% churn at u15) but there are some important exceptions.

it looks like TFA picked up most of LAFC's back line. D was TFA's biggest weak spot last year, particularly after the drama they went thru mid-season, so this could be big (but w/ the limited info available, it's difficult to tell). more on that match-up in a separate thread.

Home team, as always, is listed first:

San Diego:
Arsenal 2 vs Murrieta Surf 2
OC Surf 0 vs Strikers 3
Nomads 1 vs LAGSD 1 (edge: Nomads)
San Diego SC 1 vs Albion 2

Los Angeles:
LA Galaxy 4 vs LA Surf 1
LAFC 1 vs TFA 3 (see separate thread - http://www.socalsoccer.com/threads/...kend-9-7-19-predictions-and-discussion.17898/)
LAUFA 0 vs Pateadores 3
Legends 3 vs Ventura County Fusion 3 (edge: Legends)
Santa Barbara SC 2 vs Real SoCal 2 (edge: Santa Barbara SC)



 
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US training camp on the 17th for the 2006 age group.
11 from LAFC
7 from LAG ( surprising consider how bad this team did last season)
5 FC Golden State
2 Santa Barbara
And strikers
 
Here actuals vs predicts from last weekend (9/7/19)

San Diego:
predict: Arsenal 2 vs Murrieta Surf 2. Actuals: Arsenal 2 vs Murrieta Surf 2

predict: OC Surf 0 vs Strikers 3. Actuals: OC Surf 0 vs Strikers 4

predict: Nomads 1 vs LAGSD 1 (edge: Nomads) Actuals: Nomads 3 vs LAGSD 1

per the game report, Nomads started strong with two quick ones in the first ten minutes. Any additional commentary?

predict: San Diego SC 1 vs Albion 2. Actuals: San Diego SC 1 vs Albion 4.
JL had all four goals (three in 1h) for Albion and it looks he will be a tough match-up to defend across the board this season. JL average .77 goals per game last year.

Los Angeles:
predict: LA Galaxy 4 vs LA Surf 1. Actuals: LA Galaxy 5 vs LA Surf 3
Seems like a fun match to watch. per game report, LA Surf was up 3-1 at half but LAG came back w/ PR scoring a hat trick in the 2h. PR is new to LAG from the Strikers (and looks like a very tough match-up) and averaged 1.1 goals per game last season. Any other commentary?

predict: LAFC 1 vs TFA 3. Actuals: LAFC 3 vs TFA 4

And it's on... Sounds like an awesome match btw the two best teams in the country. per the game report, TFA was down 0-3 but popped one in right before half to make it 1-3, and then came back to win it it in the second half.

go here for some outstanding game commentary from folks who at the match - http://www.socalsoccer.com/threads/...kend-9-7-19-predictions-and-discussion.17898/


predict: LAUFA 0 vs Pateadores 3. Actuals: Pending - does anyone have results here?

predict: Legends 3 vs Ventura County Fusion 3. Actuals: Legends 3 vs Ventura County Fusion 6

Was 3-1 Fusion at half. Legends put in more fight in 2h but score still ended 6-3 Fusion. Good on the Fusion for a solid win after getting welcomed to 06 DA 1-10 by TFA last week. Any additional commentary available?

predict: Santa Barbara SC 2 vs Real SoCal 2. Actuals: Santa Barbara SC 1 vs Real SoCal 3

per the game report, Santa Barbara went down a man at the 6th minute after an ill-considered DGF red card (typically, a DGF is a deliberate hand ball to stop a goal). TR (back from LAFC) had two goals for RSC, but they were ZS, a key forward who averaged .5 goals last season. looking forward, TR and ZS will be handful for teams to defend. Any other commentary on this one?
___________
 
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Santa Barbara V RSC, first of all SB lost lots of good players to TFA Lompoc and some were moved to their csl 06 team. RSC had so many chances match could of easily end 4:1 or 5:1. ZS will be back for next game and CC will debut against LA Surf, TR is back to his neighborhood club after one season spell with LAFC. My understanding of pk was tackle from behind of SB’s last defender when rsc forward had a clear goal scoring chance, hence the red card.
 
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